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ziDPwrmsWQw3iAwPk0SZ | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,357,327,651 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,705,612,340,341 | Economy 2023: Core inflation higher than headline? | economy-2023-core-inflation-higher | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/economy-2023-core-inflation-higher | {
"NO": 3889.9190670590724,
"YES": 112.13145548270677
} | 0.988206 | 0.707198 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,285.608218 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,612,340,341 | 0.99 | 17 | 1,705,612,341,193 | 1,705,600,835,388 | -1 | [
"2023-matt-yglesias-predictions",
"ancient-markets",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
[image]
| N/A | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | |
PzjQy6JBw4sx673NUM1o | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | SemioticRivalry | Semiotic Rivalry | 1,695,826,825,829 | 1,698,691,458,686 | Will Alan Wake 2 get a metacritic score of 90 or above on October 30th? | will-alan-wake-2-get-a-metacritic-s-67ff086e3942 | https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-alan-wake-2-get-a-metacritic-s-67ff086e3942 | {
"NO": 886.9579178189415,
"YES": 51.20382994189666
} | 0.948026 | 0.512913 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,597.673237 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,691,458,686 | 0.95 | 10 | 1,710,208,079,750 | 1,698,522,751,467 | 1,698,362,299,315 | [
"metacritic"
] | N/A | null | null |
||
IaTUB79XqvNQkh5J2nXy | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | dwax | dwax | 1,715,710,316,700 | 1,716,361,140,000 | Will there be a break between Chainsaw Man chapters 166 and 167? | will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-c1383bded9c6 | https://manifold.markets/dwax/will-there-be-a-break-between-chain-c1383bded9c6 | {
"NO": 108.83841038556963,
"YES": 91.87932793739012
} | 0.542246 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 43 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,754,699,541 | 0.54 | 6 | 1,716,361,140,000 | 1,716,338,113,886 | -1 | [
"anime",
"release-dates",
"manga",
"chainsaw-man"
] | A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.
“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 166”
“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 166”
Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions. | N/A | 8oYk5oEiFQUW7v5383FwzFL6Xab2 | ||
QZIVlL0OHclas30RRlS9 | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | a | arae | 1,672,098,603,249 | 1,704,086,053,624 | Will the United Kingdom become a candidate to rejoin the European Union in 2023? | will-the-united-kingdom-become-a-ca | https://manifold.markets/a/will-the-united-kingdom-become-a-ca | {
"NO": 512.7475828517244,
"YES": 3784.6501094349464
} | 0.010541 | 0.0729 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,789.319056 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,086,053,624 | 0.01 | 32 | 1,704,086,054,306 | 1,704,060,126,724 | -1 | [
"medvedevs-2023-predictions",
"eu-accession",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This is prediction #2 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if the United Kingdom either joins the EU or becomes an EU candidate country during 2023. | N/A | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | ||
cRHvcUFPNGHsl2Fmtz3r | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,691,701,836,439 | 1,692,226,800,000 | Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher August 16th Than August 15th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-4a0850f4912a | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-4a0850f4912a | {
"NO": 169.70050849675647,
"YES": 1236.0924204571972
} | 0.050107 | 0.277578 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,368.205279 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,231,998,705 | 0.05 | 16 | 1,692,231,999,798 | 1,692,225,617,191 | 1,692,231,995,976 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"economics-default",
"finance",
"crypto-speculation"
] | ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 hours prior.
[image]Resolves according to the display at
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
8aE4swDJ0qv8EJG3YlOF | ItYQx9JE9BTT0C8hPhnTOq6BwkD2 | UbiksDemise | UbiksDemise | 1,648,567,075,695 | 1,651,356,000,000 | Will Ding Liren qualify for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022? | will-ding-liren-qualify-for-the-fid | https://manifold.markets/UbiksDemise/will-ding-liren-qualify-for-the-fid | {
"NO": 20.641311150254577,
"YES": 9.47388957706617
} | 0.951864 | 0.900755 | 10.116854 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 41 | 0 | true | YES | 1,651,390,230,806 | 0.951864 | 3 | 1,648,567,075,695 | -1 | -1 | [] | This market resolves "Yes" if Ding Liren qualifies for the FIDE Candidates Tournament 2022 by being the highest rated player with a sufficient number of games played. The exact regulations can be found at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022#Qualifier_by_rating . If the tournament is cancelled for some reason this resolves as N/A. | N/A | null | null |
|
pZ4YeVjHyvfYPhZATvR7 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,668,002,295,842 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,668,578,340,000 | Will Donald Trump announce he is running for president by November 15? | will-donald-trump-announce-he-is-ru | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-donald-trump-announce-he-is-ru | {
"NO": 42693.56566938411,
"YES": 143.25695545573518
} | 0.997272 | 0.550913 | 1,970 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 204,750.035246 | 0 | true | YES | 1,668,589,194,339 | 0.997272 | 619 | 1,710,462,517,133 | 1,668,578,335,716 | 1,668,635,739,602 | [
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"future-us-presidents",
"free-money",
"please-resolve",
"short-fuse"
] | Speculation that Donald Trump will announce he is running for President of the United States received a heavy boost when he stated in a rally on November 7, 2022: "I'm going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald John Trump announces that he is running for president of the United States of America by November 15, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Donald Trump will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed to run for president of the United States, or whether he actually files to run for president in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his legal representation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Check the real-money market at: https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-announce-he-is-running-for-president-by-november-15
[image]
Close date updated to 2022-11-16 6:59 am | N/A | null | |
FaoMV0xLifz0DgYIqOUg | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,022,426,752 | 1,696,947,702,268 | Will Italy make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | will-italy-make-it-to-the-2023-rugb | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-italy-make-it-to-the-2023-rugb | {
"NO": 147.917306130706,
"YES": 2946.668051014138
} | 0.007781 | 0.135118 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,981.344719 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,947,702,268 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,696,938,661,059 | 1,696,938,641,968 | 1,696,938,660,395 | [
"2023-rugby-world-cup"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | N/A | null | ||
SeW1Clq7TtInDf3Cao1r | wbLTrTEe8tfWBGnXDhIRzyddw0n2 | JamesOxendine | James | 1,691,175,227,707 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteyj3to6Y6hu0VnwUZT_bBzI4mOE3xulaaTZab5WZrK=s96-c | 1,696,413,132,293 | Will Ahsoka have an IMDB rating of 8.0 or higher? | will-ahsoka-have-an-imdb-rating-of | https://manifold.markets/JamesOxendine/will-ahsoka-have-an-imdb-rating-of | {
"NO": 319.54073568112346,
"YES": 228.19700499852436
} | 0.595047 | 0.512046 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 420.496583 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,413,132,293 | 0.6 | 13 | 1,696,366,986,716 | 1,696,366,986,571 | -1 | [] | This will be resolved after the final episode of the first season is released. | N/A | null | null |
wYLJIvww6OBjnNm6mczw | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,149,987,694 | 1,703,257,200,000 | Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-22 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-08f29380f1ee | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-08f29380f1ee | {
"NO": 68.59028168293004,
"YES": 79.99999999999999
} | 0.112715 | 0.129045 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,374,189,884 | 0.11 | 2 | 1,703,246,547,438 | 1,703,246,547,303 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-22 15:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 17:00 (UTC)
09:00 (Los Angeles)
12:00 (New York)
18:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
X022482iSAhIEXnzUD5m | MuvJPFIxwwbKmHPBa6bZqru8F1S2 | Blankslate | Blankslate | 1,683,388,250,046 | 1,683,498,976,063 | Will Usopp get a power-up on Elbaf? | will-usopp-get-a-powerup-on-elbaf | https://manifold.markets/Blankslate/will-usopp-get-a-powerup-on-elbaf | {
"NO": 526.7996034987342,
"YES": 99.49526385683798
} | 0.965058 | 0.839133 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 827.976784 | 0 | true | YES | 1,683,498,976,063 | 0.97 | 8 | 1,683,498,900,651 | 1,683,498,900,281 | 1,683,388,587,072 | [
"one-piece-stocks"
] | Do you think Usopp will get a power-up on Elbaf and complete his dream of becoming a "brave warrior of the sea"? Or will he continue to be a pathetic little joke?
YES = He will become stronger on Elbaf
NO = Weak little joke | N/A | null | ||
MLMLqJbilpkpRxO00C6q | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | CarsonGale | Carson Gale | 1,668,539,621,169 | 1,693,004,384,359 | Will Manifold develop a user verification system for public figures by 12/31/23? | will-manifold-develop-a-user-verifi | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-manifold-develop-a-user-verifi | {
"NO": 1894.2969538271914,
"YES": 163.18402983028398
} | 0.956446 | 0.654189 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,224.243258 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,004,384,359 | 0.96 | 24 | 1,692,999,043,121 | 1,692,999,041,972 | 1,692,994,958,662 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | It is difficult to know when a public figure is who they represent themselves to be. The market resolves positively if select Manifold users have a specialized marking to confirm their identity has been verified.
Clarification: Resolves on December 31, 2023 (see comments).
Nov 16, 12:17am: Will Manifold develop a user verification system for public figures by 2023? → Will Manifold develop a user verification system for public figures by 12/31/23? | N/A | null | ||
ON6NoRcovUKdotpGJldY | WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2 | XComhghall | XComhghall | 1,688,381,355,356 | 1,690,839,130,672 | Will the S&P 500 increase in July 2023? | will-sp-500-increase-in-july-2023 | https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-sp-500-increase-in-july-2023 | {
"NO": 47957.3924997535,
"YES": 121.20674023172614
} | 0.999143 | 0.746542 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 50,280.989274 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,839,130,672 | 1 | 33 | 1,690,839,096,428 | 1,690,839,096,285 | -1 | [
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Will the S&P 500 increase from open on 2023-07-03 (4449.45) to close on 2023-07-31 (4588.96)?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-by-55-or-m
@/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q3-2023S&P 500 close level
January 4076.60
February 3970.15
March 4109.31
April 4169.48
May 4179.83
June 4450.38
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices | N/A | null | null |
|
z46pFYNn8R9LzR0mftF4 | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,700,424,955,871 | 1,701,307,842,102 | Will microsoft effectively have a board seat on OpenAI's non-profit board of directors in 2023? | will-microsoft-effectively-have-a-b | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-microsoft-effectively-have-a-b | {
"NO": 3767.759564109229,
"YES": 37.33464701614028
} | 0.990294 | 0.502748 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,121.07157 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,307,842,102 | 0.98 | 26 | 1,706,476,723,720 | 1,701,307,838,194 | 1,706,476,721,979 | [
"microsoft",
"ai-regulation",
"openai"
] | >=1 | N/A | null | null |
|
BRIUcYWNJPbCpOKAb4KK | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,573,639,327 | 1,702,656,000,000 | Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher december 15th than the close of december 14th? (Daily Market) | will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-15ac7611e3bd | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-15ac7611e3bd | {
"NO": 248.06616610278277,
"YES": 154.62408849120234
} | 0.79 | 0.701034 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 190.355953 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,664,753,605 | 0.79 | 8 | 1,710,222,337,640 | 1,702,655,071,374 | 1,702,664,748,674 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | ||
965nlbCyXRPaPQ7N5rcJ | UwH6ZlKzULdE86dIaITFXGbZdhH3 | whenhaveiever | Cornelius Grass | 1,682,025,611,903 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwhenhaveiever%2F30ryVqB8oi.52?alt=media&token=6b2ad27e-2a09-4f16-b14d-7c9a60cd9c38 | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will my Canadian-USD exchange rate markets be useful predictors of the actual exchange rate in 2023? | will-my-canadianusd-exchange-rate-m | https://manifold.markets/whenhaveiever/will-my-canadianusd-exchange-rate-m | {
"NO": 97.76131368805002,
"YES": 125.65888200217984
} | 0.363548 | 0.423369 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 44.418041 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,228,378,542 | 0.36 | 4 | 1,704,228,378,758 | 1,684,473,687,249 | 1,704,228,365,487 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"canada",
"economics-default",
"currency",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | I'm running monthly and quarterly markets and an annual market for the exchange rate between the Canadian and United States dollars.
This market is about how useful these other markets will be in predicting the exchange rate with some lead time. This market might resolve based on my subjective judgment, although I'm open to suggestions for an objective, math-based measure (I suspect this might require learning to use the Manifold API, which I may or may not be willing to do before market close). I pledge not to bet in this market as long as the resolution remains a subjective judgment. Loosely speaking, I'd consider markets useful predictors if there is not a large swing in the value of the market in approximately the second half of the market's open time, and the market has settled on the correct prediction by about mid-month.
For example, this market for March 2023 was definitely not useful in predicting the exchange rate...
(https://manifold.markets/embed/whenhaveiever/will-the-canadian-dollar-be-worth-m-d3c34643ef8e)...while this market for January 2023 was somewhat useful in predicting the exchange rate:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/whenhaveiever/will-the-canadian-dollar-be-worth-m-0918e9949dd4)Resolution for this current market will be based on the overall performance of these markets compared to the actual exchange rate over the course of 2023. I intend to continue opening monthly and quarterly markets as the year goes on, but if something prevents that, this market will resolve based on the markets that I do open or have already opened. | N/A | UwH6ZlKzULdE86dIaITFXGbZdhH3 | |
4L6CHSavkXdAd7wA6Jtl | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,679,684,928,269 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,680,133,574,954 | Will Vaush's clip "Why Puberty Blockers are so Important! 💊" reach 25k views by 3/30 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-clip-why-puberty-blocke | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-why-puberty-blocke | {
"NO": 12861.49125361529,
"YES": 23.1377936494373
} | 0.999377 | 0.742756 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13,202.177268 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,133,574,954 | 1 | 8 | 1,710,218,510,492 | 1,680,133,569,310 | 1,680,133,343,235 | [
"destinygg",
"trans-questions",
"vaush"
] | https://youtube.com/shorts/uM7xDVk-5dQ?feature=share
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders. | N/A | null | |
tdazF3zjVzEwvAIDN7cO | 5ZLMEpuF15YyU9c1RTz7MorzAl22 | travis | Travis | 1,681,649,417,894 | 1,681,822,708,696 | World Chess Championship 2023: Will white (Ian Nepomniachtchi) win game 7? | world-chess-championship-2023-will-c8f8e32f5e2a | https://manifold.markets/travis/world-chess-championship-2023-will-c8f8e32f5e2a | {
"NO": 1860.8182635911382,
"YES": 2.813143022601821
} | 0.997821 | 0.409092 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,647.577386 | 0 | true | YES | 1,681,822,708,696 | 1 | 11 | 1,681,823,685,670 | 1,681,822,608,963 | 1,681,823,683,313 | [
"chess"
] | April 18, 09:00 UTC
YES: Ian Nepomniachtchi wins with the white pieces
NO: Draw or Ding Liren wins with the black pieces | N/A | null | ||
SEFrJZrKR112tkc7JPMp | AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1 | B | Ben J. Smith | 1,686,458,393,074 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c | 1,717,172,146,457 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of felony falsifying business records? | will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-f | https://manifold.markets/B/will-donald-trump-be-convicted-of-f | {
"NO": 9453.462330025019,
"YES": 485.7453469202528
} | 0.985629 | 0.778956 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,960.479709 | 0 | true | YES | 1,717,172,146,457 | 0.99 | 23 | 1,717,172,146,457 | 1,717,103,409,193 | 1,702,255,263,166 | [
"trump-indictments"
] | See here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_criminal_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization
Trump is now facing a variety of criminal charges. This quesiton specifically relates to the New York criminal investigation which has charged Trump with 34 counts of falsifying business records.
| N/A | AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1 | null |
ImEf2DtY0XM7F3bp5jXA | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,699,835,240,786 | 1,700,364,534,000 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #23 Kansas State beat Kansas? | -2023-ncaaf-will-23-kansas-state-be | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-23-kansas-state-be | {
"NO": 1632.3263545976545,
"YES": 43.05033586564247
} | 0.984325 | 0.623511 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,761.453918 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,364,534,000 | 0.98 | 15 | 1,700,364,539,218 | 1,700,364,530,648 | 1,700,364,537,560 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"big-12"
] | 2023-11-18 at 7 PM ET in Lawrence, KS.
Line: Kansas +8.
Head-to-head:
Overall: Kansas State 50, Kansas 65, Tie 5
Last 5: Kansas State 5, Kansas 0, Tie 0 | N/A | null | ||
3UI3WKyFUptPXQWLyuO9 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,685,517,695,521 | 1,685,685,870,146 | Biden/McCarthy debt ceiling deal - will there be 50 or more Yes votes in the Senate? | bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca | {
"NO": 19778.947696990734,
"YES": 91.51661260848596
} | 0.999242 | 0.859219 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 19,636.966695 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,685,870,146 | 1 | 13 | 1,685,685,860,501 | 1,685,685,860,330 | -1 | [
"debt-ceiling"
] | The Biden/McCarthy deal to raise the debt ceiling has been agreed and the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 is due to be voted on by the House as soon as Wednesday 31st May. Predictors are currently suggesting that it will pass comfortably:
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b
Once the bill has passed the house, it will need to be voted on by the Senate. This is expected to happen on Thursday or Friday, but the close date of this market will be extended if the vote is delayed.
Once it comes to a vote, will at least 50 Senators vote Yes on the first vote?
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-2d2c27b34f65
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-6160f1d68aba
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-ee0f36977d4f
@/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-764c416156e8
The market will resolve to N/A in the event that there is no vote, either because the bill does not advance from the House or because the Senate does not hold a vote on it. | N/A | null | null |
|
82O5snou49sLsMbScVD3 | p3ADzwIUS3fk0ka80XYEE3OM3S32 | PC | PC | 1,686,149,293,789 | 1,686,193,491,792 | Which team will score the most points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 in the NBA finals? | which-team-will-score-the-most-poin-acc1845cde5d | https://manifold.markets/PC/which-team-will-score-the-most-poin-acc1845cde5d | {
"NO": 7122.5238365316645,
"YES": 1.751388359414249
} | 0.999735 | 0.481264 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 30,813.955631 | 0 | true | YES | 1,686,193,496,889 | 1 | 10 | 1,686,193,489,165 | 1,686,193,469,705 | 1,686,193,487,173 | [] | YES = Denver
NO = Miami
Tie = Yes
Here are some markets for Game 3:
1st quarter score
2nd quarter score
3rd quarter score
4th quarter score
Kevin Love more than 15 minutes
Jokic more than 8 assists | N/A | null | ||
9H2ypjBP4J7JNJoJuFSF | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | benshindel | Ben Shindel | 1,695,008,765,216 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | 1,695,617,940,000 | Which set of words is random? (Round 2) | which-set-of-words-is-random-round | https://manifold.markets/benshindel/which-set-of-words-is-random-round | {
"NO": 224.57727252331068,
"YES": 1427.637456904547
} | 0.087865 | 0.379792 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,357.129203 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,659,104,534 | 0.09 | 25 | 1,710,206,699,786 | 1,695,613,081,567 | 1,695,659,179,534 | [
"fun",
"nonpredictive-profits",
"meme-markets",
"randomization",
"random-test"
] | I used an online random word generator to generate 25 random words. I used the first set of words I generated.
I then came up with 25 words on my own, after seeing the first set of words. I did not use any randomized method for selecting my set of words.
I used an online coin flip to assign the order of the two sets of words.
Bet for the set of words that you believe to be the RANDOM set. If you think the "YES" set of words is randomly generated, bet "YES", if you think the "NO" set of words is randomly generated, bet "NO".
I will obviously not bet in this market. I took a picture of the random word generator that will have a time stamp on my iphone.
I will release the first 5 words from each set at the start, and after ~48 hours, I will release an additional 5 words, and continue to do so every day or so until all 25 are released. Then, ~24 hours before market close, I will release the website I used to generate the random word list.
_________________________
YES: tract chauffeur palms marketplace seventh emptied arguably thrift printing finds oiler herbicide defensive stylists prawns somerset cartoon petty albeit liver metre temporary sediment greeks floss
NO: festive plunging shark secrets preamble doubled romantically predominant retains sucking marquee crept stints subscribers researcher flavour anglesey pulse carol licenses summarized vinegar mobil admit speedy
_________________________
EDIT/UPDATE:
The dictionary used to generate the random words was the "ENGLISH Simplistic (Very Usual Words Only)" dictionary from https://www.dcode.fr/random-word#q1
| N/A | null | null |
OlUQAW1pZOM7N2QT4oYy | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,455,073,334 | 1,701,705,600,000 | Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher december 4th than the close of december 1th? (Daily Market) | will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-56a3c9680097 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-56a3c9680097 | {
"NO": 190.4245617828688,
"YES": 184.81402838727905
} | 0.520151 | 0.512683 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 116.057957 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,710,236,259 | 0.52 | 8 | 1,710,222,343,767 | 1,701,705,555,217 | 1,701,710,231,700 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
MOBXNAcaHyxfYBedWgII | xXSZIwPDSKXOb6dnUJSEUgzku7h1 | Frankt | Frankt | 1,682,377,179,729 | 1,682,428,983,129 | Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $5000? | will-the-manifold-daily-revenue-on-c7ca59bded59 | https://manifold.markets/Frankt/will-the-manifold-daily-revenue-on-c7ca59bded59 | {
"NO": 1182.036773379187,
"YES": 83.64303208270046
} | 0.982153 | 0.795674 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,658.102157 | 0 | true | YES | 1,682,428,983,129 | 0.98 | 11 | 1,682,419,133,356 | 1,682,419,133,263 | 1,682,412,144,224 | [
"whales-vs-minnows"
] | Resolution base on the displayed stats here: https://manifold.markets/stats
Resolve to Yes if the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th is above $5000 | N/A | null | ||
wAkfVRpzIgAZJClJhGPv | O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72 | AjayChabra | Ajay | 1,702,236,613,946 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c | 1,702,840,679,239 | Will Taylor Swift be at the KC Chiefs @ NE Patriots game on Sunday, December 17 - NFL Week 15 | will-taylor-swift-be-at-the-kc-chie-dd3ab46da69e | https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/will-taylor-swift-be-at-the-kc-chie-dd3ab46da69e | {
"NO": 2167.811129670733,
"YES": 73.30899974271969
} | 0.977621 | 0.596337 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,978 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,840,679,239 | 0.98 | 13 | 1,702,838,424,100 | 1,702,838,423,986 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"kansas-city-chiefs",
"new-england-patriots",
"taylor-swift",
"travis-kelce"
] | December 17, 2023 - 1:00 p.m. ET - Week 15 - Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
Will Taylor Swift be spotted at the game? This question will not close before it's confirmed either way.
[image][image] | N/A | O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72 | null |
nAIXlz0biyl4k3hogAcp | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | toms | Tom | 1,677,436,018,634 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyROwZbCmjGRzf3ZLeOX03LPKjQD0KMzh4qmOWA=s96-c | 1,706,774,340,000 | Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024? | will-an-accredited-us-college-or-un | https://manifold.markets/toms/will-an-accredited-us-college-or-un | {
"NO": 766.632314510202,
"YES": 6283.032138441786
} | 0.026264 | 0.181039 | 1,185 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 24,418.963824 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,192,355,903 | 0.03 | 103 | 1,707,231,127,610 | 1,706,761,152,672 | 1,707,231,127,097 | [
"ai",
"metaculus",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question. Its description is copied below:
In the context of Large Language Models (LLMs), prompts are inputs, to which the LLM responds. "Prompt-engineering" refers to the art of crafting inputs so as to increase the chance of getting a desired output.
Prompt-engineering has been used to get LLMs to do many things, e.g. write code, circumvent LLM safety mechanisms, and achieve higher performance on mathematics and science problems (e.g. chain-of-thought prompting)
An online course on Prompt Engineering already seems to exist, but it's unclear how substantial it is and it does not seem to be affiliated with any university.
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?
This resolves as Yes if an accredited US college or university completes the instruction of such a course for credit before January 1, 2024. Resolution will be determined according to credible sources available before February 1, 2024.
Fine print:
A course on AI-assisted writing would be considered distinct, and would not qualify.
The instruction period (i.e. the time interval between the first and last lecture) must be longer than 60 days.
Prompt engineering must be the main focus of the course according to the university's course listing and/or the course website. | N/A | 080G8XlxbEVuIRYNWIssI8bJ4sj1 | null |
QyL0EQBXJnFIHP2o0hGW | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,083,086,788 | 1,703,545,200,000 | Will BNB close higher on December 25 than it closed on December 24? | will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-8b414d31f35c | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-8b414d31f35c | {
"NO": 797.3718780352593,
"YES": 143.77824831172748
} | 0.928112 | 0.699516 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,536.628957 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,565,074,238 | 0.93 | 12 | 1,703,565,068,435 | 1,703,543,503,862 | 1,703,565,066,653 | [
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
akuhFEd98jHIpDe0p2YH | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,004,735,531 | 1,683,427,317,202 | Will Kron Gracie beat Charles Jourdain at UFC 288? | will-kron-gracie-beat-charles-jourd | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-kron-gracie-beat-charles-jourd | {
"NO": 7.435874355704982,
"YES": 10784.917527520432
} | 0.000351 | 0.337536 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,942.865449 | 0 | true | NO | 1,683,427,317,202 | 0 | 9 | 1,683,427,268,832 | 1,683,427,268,693 | -1 | [
"ufc-288",
"ufc",
"mma",
"combat-sports"
] | Kron Gracie and Charles Jourdain are scheduled to fight on May 6th at UFC 288 in Newark, New Jersey.
If Kron Gracie wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Charles Jourdain wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | ||
hZ5FvpaD4mTzTPlOE5Af | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | Arky | Arky | 1,706,222,986,106 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQN_M4pd9jLZ5rJw6o8dYiJLjJ8C33gC5taqyV8YKL07o=s96-c | 1,709,269,140,000 | Will 5 people who made a Manifold account because of the New York Times article comment on this question? | will-5-people-who-made-a-manifold-a | https://manifold.markets/Arky/will-5-people-who-made-a-manifold-a | {
"NO": 129.11320834020324,
"YES": 913.8337317413315
} | 0.068592 | 0.342639 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,546.672078 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,271,016,290 | 0.07 | 13 | 1,709,271,016,540 | 1,709,250,632,821 | 1,708,623,547,856 | [
"manifold-community"
] | I learned about Manifold from this article. I'm curious about how many other people made an account after reading the article and are still active on Manifold.
This market will resolve to YES if at least 5 people (not including me) post a comment (truthfully) saying that the New York Times article caused them to make a Manifold account. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO at the end of February. I was inspired by @/PC/will-10-people-who-signed-up-for-ma | N/A | RabL4fATYvdJfRO7qYkwoFyZWYq2 | |
3fRQtJFBoLWOSVGoHdtD | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | KevinBurke | Kevin Burke | 1,694,414,939,043 | 1,699,212,571,661 | Will Pierre Gasly finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)? | will-pierre-gasly-finish-in-the-poi-efc82d13908a | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-pierre-gasly-finish-in-the-poi-efc82d13908a | {
"NO": 11074.922978463183,
"YES": 1.456040094626587
} | 0.9999 | 0.567245 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,675.491766 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,212,571,661 | 1 | 13 | 1,699,212,568,358 | 1,699,212,568,224 | -1 | [
"formula-1"
] | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. | N/A | null | null |
|
k6h5W7Y4qWJV4YyX7TTz | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,697,144,187,608 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,704,204,000,000 | [Metaculus] Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel? | metaculus-before-2024-will-the-us-g | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-before-2024-will-the-us-g | {
"NO": 116.34681068917534,
"YES": 4069.5975700008394
} | 0.004912 | 0.14724 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,048.271915 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,069,391,752 | 0 | 12 | 1,707,139,317,138 | 1,704,196,240,550 | 1,707,139,315,150 | [
"metaculus",
"arabisraeli-conflict",
"israel",
"israelhamas-conflict-2023",
"us-politics"
] | Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, one or more US government officials acting in an official government capacity state that Iran was likely involved in planning the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, and the statement it not contradicted within seven days.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation. | N/A | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | |
izkuZ9Z9qGoihbeIpshS | Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682 | pea | pea | 1,694,132,389,368 | 1,704,063,377,594 | Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Baltimore Ravens? | will-the-miami-dolphins-win-against-321a0b891c54 | https://manifold.markets/pea/will-the-miami-dolphins-win-against-321a0b891c54 | {
"NO": 85.56180494186972,
"YES": 4733.226323322877
} | 0.012012 | 0.402125 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,601.329959 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,063,381,130 | 0.01 | 32 | 1,704,063,381,548 | 1,704,057,001,790 | 1,704,057,372,858 | [
"baltimore-ravens",
"miami-dolphins",
"nfl",
"sports-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | [image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets! | N/A | Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682 | null |
|
Jx6VYYSca1tTJzsHTQdn | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,697,717,217,438 | 1,697,808,300,000 | Will AC flight 262 from Winnipeg to Toronto on 2023-10-20 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)? | will-ac-flight-262-from-winnipeg-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ac-flight-262-from-winnipeg-to | {
"NO": 393.7479658190666,
"YES": 80.45894971589617
} | 0.93 | 0.730808 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 437.658384 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,835,438,697 | -1 | 7 | 1,697,778,536,631 | 1,697,778,536,271 | -1 | [] | !!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/3xd676at | N/A | null | null |
|
XkMhtu3gAiLJJrzZuMsW | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | Interrobang | Interrobang | 1,716,759,954,039 | 1,716,940,581,307 | Will the typo "expectationt" in the Manifold FAQ be corrected to "expectation" by August 1st 6:00 PM UTC? | will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m | https://manifold.markets/Interrobang/will-the-typo-expectationt-in-the-m | {
"NO": 8089.92567645644,
"YES": 123.61052993480985
} | 0.98495 | 0.5 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,094.142346 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,940,581,307 | 0.98 | 17 | 1,716,940,581,307 | 1,716,936,987,386 | 1,716,936,944,256 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | The typo is located at https://docs.manifold.markets/faq#what-does-resolving-to-na-do
Resolved as 'yes' if, after the given time, after going to the Manifold About page, clicking on "FAQ", and searching for 'expectationt', there are 0 results.
[link preview] | N/A | 7ls8quxx2cd0Hh3F9WEaLarlgyD3 | ||
ViofE3Mu45LXIUgejQCP | EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2 | Gugra | Gugra | 1,710,157,285,936 | 1,710,704,131,570 | Will xAI open source Grok this week ? | will-xai-open-source-groq-this-week | https://manifold.markets/Gugra/will-xai-open-source-groq-this-week | {
"NO": 2947.6253187444004,
"YES": 35.07258455611958
} | 0.993358 | 0.640239 | 280 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,233.311714 | 0 | true | YES | 1,710,704,131,570 | 0.99 | 10 | 1,710,704,336,491 | 1,710,704,071,441 | 1,710,704,290,679 | [] | [image]Elon Musk is known for his failed promises. https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-spacex-broken-promises-deadline-1850294738
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/04/15/elon-musk-promises/
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/29/media/elon-musk-twitter-promises-reliable-sources/index.html
today he claimed Grok will be open sourced this week ,will this happen ?
[image]weights released today @grok bio | N/A | EN2YQcXAMygm38Q7WhqAQTduXeD2 | null |
|
z75ewNTl1wP8mmnBbhqe | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | Soli | Soli ꩜ | 1,702,325,131,731 | 1,704,736,899,052 | Will Apple block Beeper’s workaround that allows Android users to use iMessage again before 2024? | will-apple-block-beepers-workaround | https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-apple-block-beepers-workaround | {
"NO": 541.0583986252949,
"YES": 402.0923179289782
} | 0.782239 | 0.727488 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,133.194869 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,737,272,629 | 0.78 | 23 | 1,704,737,272,917 | 1,704,055,320,116 | 1,704,736,931,795 | [
"technology-default",
"apple",
"ios",
"news",
"app-stores",
"android-mobile-os",
"google-ef2cf716540e"
] | I am not following closely but there is a fun cat and mouse game going on right now between Apple and Beeper.
According to what I was able to gather: Beeper allowed android users to use iMessage. Apple doesn’t provide official API so the team reverse engineered iMessage to build that feature into their products. Apple then changed the backend of iMessage effectively putting a stop to their “hack”. Their account just posted that iMessage is back so I am wondering how long it will take till Apple blocks them again
[tweet]
News Articles
Beeper Mini is back in operation after Apple’s attempt to shut it down
[image] | N/A | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | ||
8gxvNZMYywVB5mzlpJ9h | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,691,594,566,953 | 1,691,681,400,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 10th August than it closed on 9th August? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9709ffcb79d5 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9709ffcb79d5 | {
"NO": 6797.424346590993,
"YES": 99.207564802482
} | 0.995751 | 0.773751 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,140.340857 | 0 | true | YES | 1,691,684,990,707 | 0.92 | 19 | 1,710,462,485,959 | 1,691,681,283,916 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 10th August than it did on Wednesday 9th August?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are some monthly markets for the month of August:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6b2ebca28f2e
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-august-wi
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
ZPccRz7feBPobv2NlN8h | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,687,914,669 | 1,707,732,900,000 | Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-12 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-1cc211bd2e04 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-1cc211bd2e04 | {
"NO": 105.25790701112562,
"YES": 128.70511786692143
} | 0.159447 | 0.188279 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 92 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,773,863,721 | 0.16 | 4 | 1,707,773,863,974 | 1,707,732,221,596 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-12 10:15 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-12 - 12:15 (UTC)
04:15 (Los Angeles)
07:15 (New York)
13:15 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
eQlkqwjsGcT7rLEy3xL4 | EzsnDabZsZTcpcD1UmChzRUn9Bk1 | PeterWildeford | Peter Wildeford | 1,673,073,453,328 | 1,677,473,940,000 | Will McCarthy last longer than Liz Truss (until Feb 26)? | will-mccarthy-last-longer-than-liz | https://manifold.markets/PeterWildeford/will-mccarthy-last-longer-than-liz | {
"NO": 16958.321457323153,
"YES": 358.87362186882655
} | 0.997307 | 0.886837 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 19,769.022893 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,510,959,702 | 1 | 26 | 1,677,488,744,468 | 1,677,467,016,056 | 1,677,488,727,627 | [
"politics-default"
] | Liz Truss served as Prime Minister of the UK from 2022 Sep 6 – Oct 25. This was just 50 days, making her the shortest-serving prime minister in the history of the United Kingdom.
Kevin McCarthy was just elected the US Speaker of the House on 2023 Jan 7. Will he last longer in his position than Liz Truss did in hers?
This question resolves YES if Kevin McCarthy has never been removed from his Speakership (including resignations) as of the end of 2023 February 26 (EST). This question resolves NO otherwise.
I will be trading on this market because it resovles by clearly objective sources. (Whereas I will not trade on any market I create if the market is subjective.) | N/A | null | ||
ML5FDJGQg0XjdeO3L8C1 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | Simon74fe | Simon | 1,693,630,965,489 | 1,704,098,695,129 | Will we ever be less confident again whether the room temp superconductor is real or not? (<=96% confidence) | will-we-ever-be-less-confident-agai | https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-we-ever-be-less-confident-agai | {
"NO": 189.42245514898752,
"YES": 3383.946459286534
} | 0.015902 | 0.224005 | 380 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,676.285478 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,098,695,129 | 0.02 | 17 | 1,704,098,695,746 | 1,703,673,756,913 | 1,693,998,462,455 | [
"superconductivity",
"polymarket",
"lk99",
"lk99-derivative-markets",
"science-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves to YES if the (exact) price graph of "Yes" shares on https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real rises to or exceeds 4% (4ct) and stays there for at least a week after the creation of this market.
Otherwise resolves to NO when the market on Polymarket gets resolved.
Inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-we-know-whether-the-room
[link preview] | N/A | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_PVfEw3iGv.06?alt=media&token=ec3f2f15-c529-438f-a237-01fbdad74618 |
|
GPIAYuXdzWvp0anDgdXa | Ny6dHML9HYPdY1MHFYRxbJJu1Wo2 | AdamHirschberg | Adam Hirschberg | 1,692,241,850,275 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc3IGghCGsqP47bFhxos1S3dOEqtIQ4F_hyWzTegwzPpVw=s96-c | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will Donald Trump participate in a Republican Primary Debate in 2023? | will-donald-trump-appear-in-a-repub | https://manifold.markets/AdamHirschberg/will-donald-trump-appear-in-a-repub | {
"NO": 285.10189000980415,
"YES": 25504.748454746255
} | 0.005565 | 0.333604 | 1,460 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 42,406.162957 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,119,665,087 | 0.01 | 89 | 1,704,119,665,895 | 1,704,092,344,749 | 1,704,045,874,909 | [
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Will Donald Trump appear on a debate stage for an RNC-sanctioned republican primary debate prior to January 1st 2024? | N/A | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | null |
KNUOJjiGCE13xLoopP6m | 4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2 | 1941159478 | Johnny Ten-Numbers | 1,686,335,545,850 | 1,691,085,783,866 | Third Trump Indictment 2023? | third-trump-indictment-by-2024 | https://manifold.markets/1941159478/third-trump-indictment-by-2024 | {
"NO": 4169.119316167007,
"YES": 537.9471249978939
} | 0.982231 | 0.877037 | 730 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,657.02379 | 0 | true | YES | 1,691,085,783,866 | 0.98 | 37 | 1,691,085,747,265 | 1,690,984,498,548 | 1,691,085,743,210 | [
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"donald-trump",
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | This resolves YES if Donald Trump is indicted in a federal or state case in the US between market creation and close. This excludes the cases filed June 8, 2023 and March 30, 2023. This market also excludes any sealed or otherwise secret indictments.
(Idea for the market stolen from the Salem Center Tournament) | N/A | null | ||
g0LFK8xojvsesXXYuzOY | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,082,304,092 | 1,703,458,800,000 | Will DOT close higher on December 24 than it closed on December 23? | will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-5d2a04437355 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-5d2a04437355 | {
"NO": 445.71691963152176,
"YES": 112.94573010233952
} | 0.890088 | 0.672357 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 458.218222 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,468,203,220 | 0.89 | 7 | 1,703,468,161,234 | 1,703,453,890,096 | 1,703,468,160,693 | [
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
View the live price
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
d6YsiecZtRC54WV0g78m | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | Ernie | Ernie | 1,692,915,548,616 | 1,709,595,777,117 | Will any of the original 7 LK-99 researchers speak at an international conference through 2024 | will-any-of-the-original-7-lk99-res-43626166bfee | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-any-of-the-original-7-lk99-res-43626166bfee | {
"NO": 3200.978491386678,
"YES": 159.94270795006366
} | 0.968098 | 0.602592 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 29,136.751205 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,595,777,117 | 0.97 | 39 | 1,709,595,777,625 | 1,709,548,858,846 | 1,709,595,699,862 | [
"lk99",
"superconductivity"
] | Any of the 7 people listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99
The conference must be attended by at least 100 researchers
It must happen before EOY 2024
They must speak about LK-99 | N/A | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | null |
|
vDKJ5WT8Ij569VAymN9L | 7331WtctuvW2ZEKB71LrJWMOcLL2 | EricZhangb666 | Eric Zhang | 1,700,258,708,065 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhrkSn4_nIu6Uo3EJYgryRM-q0M1AScNS209AFqFA=s96-c | 1,700,785,988,264 | Will the next permanent CEO of OpenAI be an attendee of the 2017 Asilomar Beneficial AI Conference? | will-the-next-permanent-ceo-of-open | https://manifold.markets/EricZhangb666/will-the-next-permanent-ceo-of-open | {
"NO": 630.1888562681489,
"YES": 36.11014792979507
} | 0.976889 | 0.707777 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 722.6793 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,785,988,264 | 0.98 | 6 | 1,700,649,940,362 | 1,700,649,940,200 | -1 | [
"technology-default"
] | Resolves YES if the new CEO is listed in the following link, either in "Standing Row", "Sitting Row", or "Not in photo"
https://futureoflife.org/event/bai-2017/ | N/A | null | null |
3FyqGMytsWqglaFJJidu | o7Tu72Hb0cfLG8oKEfiaMszxuJ82 | LesterCrafton | Lester Crafton | 1,697,672,407,417 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJNn7nhYlR8GZkNQK-rITEHLOSMfzRLyqqUXnIDmU5MQRQ=s96-c | 1,704,687,675,701 | Will the Miami Dolphins Set the All-Time Regular Season NFL Offensive Yardage Record this season? | will-the-miami-dolphins-set-the-all | https://manifold.markets/LesterCrafton/will-the-miami-dolphins-set-the-all | {
"NO": 84.79016833192703,
"YES": 742.043810438404
} | 0.034456 | 0.237979 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 802.765131 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,687,675,701 | 0.03 | 7 | 1,704,687,676,227 | 1,704,655,353,369 | -1 | [
"miami-dolphins",
"sports-default",
"nfl",
"records"
] | The current record is the 2011 New Orleans Saints' 7474 all-purpose offensive yards.
After 6 of 17 games, the Dolphins have 2,992.
Will the Dolphins break the all time record?
Will Resolve as "YES" if the Miami Dolphins have 7475 or more yards at the end of the regular season.
Will Resolve as "NO" otherwise.
| N/A | o7Tu72Hb0cfLG8oKEfiaMszxuJ82 | null |
ZDewDz4ldHhI12AuCTq4 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,386,716,429 | 1,699,657,200,000 | Will SOL close higher on November 10 than it closed on November 9? | will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1 | {
"NO": 1037.7541336204538,
"YES": 150.59184248412242
} | 0.963244 | 0.791792 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,702.935131 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,662,924,358 | 0.96 | 15 | 1,699,662,920,336 | 1,699,656,229,522 | 1,699,662,919,644 | [
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Yahoo Finance Historical Data page (not the chart):
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOL-USD/history
Previous Close: $45.44
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
g0gD8Czs8NTolEh5rDzE | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,709,329,616,224 | 1,709,938,800,000 | Will Nvidia close higher than 822.79 on March 8? | will-nvidia-close-higher-than-82279 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-nvidia-close-higher-than-82279 | {
"NO": 38965.00992858153,
"YES": 314.66395397579885
} | 0.998301 | 0.825927 | 940 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 39,817.828915 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,939,748,046 | 1 | 47 | 1,709,939,748,648 | 1,709,937,408,380 | 1,709,939,743,011 | [
"tech-stocks",
"stocks",
"finance",
"ai",
"keen-stocks",
"nvidia",
"gpu",
"stocks-league-march",
"big-tech"
] | NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 822.79
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
hXtGjwma3h42MFQWzrEe | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,702,243,115,041 | 1,702,245,243,586 | Carlsen - Nakamura Armageddon: Round Robin in CCT finals 2023 - who wins? | carlsen-nakamura-armageddon-round-r | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/carlsen-nakamura-armageddon-round-r | {
"NO": 20374.663308657025,
"YES": 0.137008889385469
} | 0.999993 | 0.493126 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,358.269541 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,245,243,586 | 1 | 3 | 1,710,206,819,905 | 1,702,245,220,099 | 1,702,245,283,626 | [
"chess",
"magnus-carlsen"
] | Magnus = YES
Nakamura = NO
victory = match+bid = armageddon | N/A | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | null |
|
JKvcNpb24bdCNH2LSAE1 | X7mSvL54MORSKmMGAgPmZAdtbnE3 | Voidvamp | Voidvamp | 1,698,772,608,898 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfER8cY0bFxgzKzHxq7nWjTONOmYo6d3q1Ss0mLH2ydNxc=s96-c | 1,699,295,340,000 | Will GTA 6 release date announced this week? | will-gta-6-release-date-announced-t | https://manifold.markets/Voidvamp/will-gta-6-release-date-announced-t | {
"NO": 176.0757541725101,
"YES": 5291.732790216543
} | 0.007999 | 0.195067 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,490.933 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,300,317,161 | 0.01 | 26 | 1,699,290,827,756 | 1,699,290,827,630 | -1 | [
"gaming",
"culture-default",
"fun",
"release-dates"
] | Yes
If Rockstar Games makes an official announcement about GTA 6 by 5th November 2023, then "yes" wins.
No
If there is no official announcement, the "no" wins.
Closing Date: Close on November 6, 2023. Any official announcement from Rockstar Games regarding GTA 6 during this week will determine the winning | N/A | null | null |
H1clG170w6fBAi0NabSS | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,698,606,204,214 | 1,699,137,443,902 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Florida Atlantic beat UAB? | -2023-ncaaf-will-florida-atlantic-b-730bbc858bf7 | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-florida-atlantic-b-730bbc858bf7 | {
"NO": 7.142857142857359,
"YES": 350.0000000000103
} | 0.02 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,612.754941 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,137,443,902 | 0.02 | 9 | 1,699,137,207,324 | 1,699,137,207,176 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"aac"
] | 2023-11-04 at 3 PM ET in Birmingham, AL | N/A | null | null |
|
7K8iXiNWbvI54QvTzWem | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,690,246,167,839 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Israel judicial reform: will Israel pass a bill allowing the Knesset to override Supreme Court decisions, in 2023? | will-israel-pass-a-bill-allowing-th | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-israel-pass-a-bill-allowing-th | {
"NO": 94.58313077009339,
"YES": 2023.3832610553895
} | 0.018 | 0.281677 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,988.197612 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,135,853,791 | 0.02 | 13 | 1,704,135,854,073 | 1,703,839,806,185 | -1 | [
"world-default",
"politics-default",
"israeli-politics",
"israel",
"asia",
"israeli-domestic-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Context:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform
Resolves YES if the Knesset passes a bill in 2023 which allows itself to override Supreme Court decisions to review or throw out legislation.
[link preview] | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | null |
|
xXOsW2DwBtXiE5HQj4fb | Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2 | Kronopath | Kronopath | 1,685,943,169,598 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c | 1,687,481,100,000 | Will Yann LeCun "win" his AI x-risk debate with Max Tegmark? | will-yann-lecun-win-his-debate-with | https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-yann-lecun-win-his-debate-with | {
"NO": 565.6575132485772,
"YES": 876.451031951431
} | 0.246308 | 0.336148 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,450.95357 | 0 | true | YES | 1,687,842,198,793 | 0.25 | 35 | 1,687,857,195,218 | 1,687,481,095,464 | 1,687,857,190,581 | [
"ai",
"ai-impacts",
"ai-safety",
"ai-alignment"
] | On June 22nd, Munk Debates will be hosting a debate between Max Tegmark and Yann LeCun on the following subject:
Be it resolved, AI research and development poses an existential threat.
Max is taking the "Pro" side and Yann is taking the "Con" side.
[link preview]Munk Debates does a poll of the audience before and after each debate. The debaters are then judged based on how many people in the audience (on net) changed their minds from "Pro" to "Con" or vice-versa. You can see some examples from their previous debates on their debates page.
Note that this doesn't require a majority of the audience to agree with the winner! If the initial poll shows 10% Pro/90% Con, and the final poll shows 15% Pro/85% Con, then the "Pro" side is considered the winner since it had a 5% vote gain!
This market resolves "Yes" if Munk Debates pronounces Yann LeCun the winner for shifting the audience's net opinions further to the "Con" side. It resolves "No" in the case of a draw or if Max Tegmark is pronounced the winner.
This market will close at the currently-scheduled end of the debate (8:45 PM Eastern time), in case folks want to evaluate the arguments live and predict how they might sway the audience. This may mean that the results could be announced before this market fully closes, but I think that's an okay tradeoff.
This market will resolve sometime after the final results are announced, possibly with a delay to allow me the time to look up the results and resolve it. (I may not be able to watch it live.) | N/A | null | null |
hDPN780rgfhnMPLqaMD1 | HhZi7R3RRHWeS5tRvomftREwRWf2 | breck | breck | 1,692,968,289,017 | 1,695,862,800,000 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy become the #2 polling candidate anytime before the second GOP debate? | will-vivek-become-the-2-polling-can | https://manifold.markets/breck/will-vivek-become-the-2-polling-can | {
"NO": 312.08027989311256,
"YES": 26293.568481659717
} | 0.004882 | 0.292442 | 1,530 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 76,798.124252 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,862,885,743 | 0 | 77 | 1,695,861,695,553 | 1,695,861,695,226 | 1,695,241,222,531 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"2024-republican-primaries",
"magaland"
] | This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in National Polls" chart section titled "Average as of Yesterday".
As of August 24, 2023, Vivek Ramaswamy currently polls at 10.3%. That puts him in third place behind Ron Desantis (14.8%) and Donald Trump (51.6%).
At any point before the next GOP debate begins on September 27, will he move into the #2 spot? It will resolve immediately upon me seeing the site and confirming that he moved into the #2 spot. If the debate date changes, I will modify the close date.
This may also resolve to "yes" if he ties for the #2 spot. | N/A | null | null |
|
NNSVgbwM9CVyorYnRaQO | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | SG | SG | 1,642,618,273,653 | 1,643,608,799,000 | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be above 40% by the end of the month? | will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.94074 | 0.94074 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,583.731958 | 0 | true | YES | 1,643,737,623,083 | -1 | 17 | 1,642,618,273,653 | -1 | 1,643,404,007,281 | [] | Resolves YES if Joe Biden's average approval rating is at or above 40% on the day of January 31st 2022 according to Real Clear Politics: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html
Feb 1, 11:44am: Biden's approval rating on Jan 31, 2022 is 41.4% according to RCP, making this market resolve YES. | N/A | null | null |
|
lkawDUw3uE1fzLPP9utH | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,698,606,731,191 | 1,699,140,322,393 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Hawai'i beat Nevada? | -2023-ncaaf-will-hawaii-beat-nevada | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-hawaii-beat-nevada | {
"NO": 1318.4514577931932,
"YES": 1.8961638558801752
} | 0.998564 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,333.360956 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,140,322,393 | 1 | 3 | 1,699,140,160,829 | 1,699,140,160,687 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"mountain-west-conference"
] | 2023-11-04 at 4 PM ET in Reno, NV | N/A | null | null |
|
zz8S9x1YOL8yzOrDsU9C | pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23 | MrLuke255 | MrLuke255 | 1,694,437,905,809 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdg1avhCMoBkHhCstNtQDHtbxSxH089ql8vXTP6lrfvvQ=s96-c | 1,696,197,540,000 | Will EUR/PLN go up more than 5% over September? | will-eurpln-go-up-more-than-5-over | https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-eurpln-go-up-more-than-5-over | {
"NO": 81.82802383872976,
"YES": 1040.3537194135322
} | 0.020952 | 0.213888 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,026.409434 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,256,695,166 | 0.02 | 9 | 1,696,256,685,976 | 1,696,185,329,144 | 1,696,256,685,283 | [
"currency",
"europe",
"finance",
"forex",
"european-union",
"wall-street-predictions",
"wall-street-bets",
"economics-default",
"politics-in-poland",
"money",
"poland",
"central-banks"
] | Is one EUR going to be worth more than 4,6919 PLN (= 4.4685 PLN * 1.05) on 2.10.2023 (1.10.2023 is a Sunday)?
Will resolve according to https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-pln.en.html
Related markets:
[markets] | N/A | null | |
JwVjjw9ouNLODuBJQebl | YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83 | SneakySly | SneakySly | 1,667,654,275,658 | 1,668,801,686,419 | Will the Slay the Spire Board Game Kickstarter exceed $4 million pledged? | will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game-97d8ea1bd377 | https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game-97d8ea1bd377 | {
"NO": 248.77908910669703,
"YES": 12452.464472068823
} | 0.007548 | 0.275733 | 790 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 18,194.72069 | 0 | true | NO | 1,668,801,686,419 | 0.015217 | 40 | 1,668,801,824,054 | 1,668,801,650,533 | 1,668,801,821,068 | [
"gaming"
] | Kickstarter Here:
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game/comments
Since the previous market seems to indicate we will pass $3 million:
If at the end of the Kickstarter campaign, the total pledged amount exceeds $4 million in USD this market resolves YES.
Otherwise this market resolves NO.
Previous Market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game) | N/A | null | ||
9mRItb0konMPN8WTR3h6 | 1BZZKljhfHSkhWzeJUqBJhtbXBR2 | JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote | Joseph Martin jr 3rd (coyote) | 1,687,798,367,890 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYHEoSJhMZcvnN9yuWzkizawSdtWDLPWktMcJ1XCA=s96-c | 1,691,723,190,618 | by august 10 will Witcher season 3 have a high audience score on rotten tomatoes? | by-august-10-will-witcher-season-3 | https://manifold.markets/JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote/by-august-10-will-witcher-season-3 | {
"NO": 153.26308891325988,
"YES": 801.078466655369
} | 0.03762 | 0.169657 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 747.801005 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,723,222,468 | 0.04 | 12 | 1,691,716,831,156 | 1,691,716,831,020 | 1,691,500,396,338 | [
"netflix"
] | by august 10 will Witcher season 3 have a high audience score on rotten tomatoes? it needs 60% or more as positive for a yes to resolve. this will resolve on August 10th giving enough time for people to watch and review. the second part comes out july 27th.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_witcher/s03
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
U2lAHxC5V0bHPfusYEXr | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | TonyPepperoni | TonyPepperoni 🦆 | 1,713,119,488,056 | 1,716,248,256,083 | Will Manifold change the daily market sharing bonus before June? | will-manifold-change-the-daily-mark | https://manifold.markets/TonyPepperoni/will-manifold-change-the-daily-mark | {
"NO": 2353.5170331352433,
"YES": 33.3597731673965
} | 0.99 | 0.5839 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,661.635328 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,248,256,083 | 0.99 | 8 | 1,716,248,256,083 | 1,716,244,899,478 | 1,716,244,744,171 | [
"manifold-business-future",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"
] | Manifold is planning to make a lot of tweaks to the mana economy, many of which reduce the amount of mana they are printing. Will they alter the daily market sharing bonus in some way?
Currently the system works by paying a user 5 mana the first time they share, or copy a market link each day. | N/A | DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2 | null |
|
yGXveLibVOZ4wv6tQYuu | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | a | arae | 1,672,099,015,921 | 1,704,086,306,102 | Will a country controlling 2022 territory of Germany, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and the Baltics exist by the end of 2023? | will-a-country-controlling-2022-ter | https://manifold.markets/a/will-a-country-controlling-2022-ter | {
"NO": 1764.9181945068758,
"YES": 19137.400857910325
} | 0.003615 | 0.037849 | 1,975 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 35,432.391043 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,086,306,102 | 0 | 129 | 1,704,086,307,777 | 1,702,415,837,137 | 1,699,317,998,964 | [
"medvedevs-2023-predictions",
"ukrainerussia-war",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This is prediction #5 in former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's Twitter thread on New Year's predictions.
Resolves YES if a country exists at the end of 2023 that controls at least some territory within each of these countries' 2022 borders:
Germany
Czechia
Slovakia
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland | N/A | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | ||
jyzQvwjc9mTDyf2arkk5 | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cash | cshunter | 1,701,794,028,282 | 1,708,021,464,946 | Did India become more authoritarian in 2023? | did-india-become-more-authoritarian | https://manifold.markets/cash/did-india-become-more-authoritarian | {
"NO": 271.1624245589792,
"YES": 2248.2052067812756
} | 0.018059 | 0.132306 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,234.336327 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,021,464,946 | 0.02 | 24 | 1,708,023,671,763 | 1,708,017,330,710 | 1,708,023,663,065 | [
"democracy",
"india",
"elections",
"asia",
"elections-world",
"politics-default",
"world-default"
] | This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if India's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2024) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If India's democracy score for 2023 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2023:
@/cash/did-the-world-become-more-authorita-08db6b0f8b90
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita
@/cash/did-the-united-states-become-more-a
@/cash/did-china-become-more-authoritarian
@/cash/did-russia-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-germany-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/did-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/did-france-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-canada-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-ukraine-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/did-israel-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-turkey-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-poland-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-argentina-become-more-authorita | N/A | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | ||
xcvlr6umzeaWj69klQnT | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,191,592,188 | 1,701,273,600,000 | Will CAC 40 close higher november 29th than the close of november 28th? (Daily Market) | will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-ef457a4a7201 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-ef457a4a7201 | {
"NO": 470.17129622372397,
"YES": 115.16413150137569
} | 0.92 | 0.738002 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,088.787862 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,278,163,037 | 0.92 | 9 | 1,701,278,158,541 | 1,701,273,160,028 | 1,701,278,158,034 | [
"stocks",
"finance",
"sccsq4"
] | CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
u8hCthHS1ycuyR2oLHIz | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | parhizj | JRP | 1,700,749,211,225 | 1,700,884,147,304 | Will Invest 94E become Ramon? | will-invest-94e-become-ramon | https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-invest-94e-become-ramon | {
"NO": 142.5,
"YES": 115.15639506158057
} | 0.58879 | 0.536414 | 127.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,884,147,304 | 0.59 | 2 | 1,700,884,197,022 | 1,700,756,179,462 | 1,700,884,196,526 | [
"2023-hurricane-season",
"extreme-weather"
] | As of 400 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2023, the disturbance in the Eastern North Pacific (Invest 94E) is forecast to become a TD (70%).
Will Invest 94E become the named storm Ramon?
Resolves YES if/when a NHC advisory announces the disturbance becoming Ramon. Resolves NO if/when the NHC announces it has dissipated or become extra-tropical/post-tropical or that they will no longer track the disturbance for similar reasons, or if a separate disturbance becomes Ramon first.
[image] | N/A | null | null |
|
tcmwtN4Zd4AC7hU5Kk08 | a9PUtF96mrMLIuie60MlRAIEy4J2 | JackBillyard | Jack Billyard | 1,679,351,436,911 | 1,679,351,522,578 | Will Wout Van Aert win 2023 Milan San Remo? | will-wout-van-aert-win-2023-milan-s | https://manifold.markets/JackBillyard/will-wout-van-aert-win-2023-milan-s | {
"NO": 16.666666666666686,
"YES": 150
} | 0.1 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 100 | 0 | true | NO | 1,679,351,522,578 | 0.1 | 1 | 1,679,351,508,441 | 1,679,351,508,329 | -1 | [] | N/A | null | |||
qRQutvk4VZAKL0gw8pi9 | nJwtPuPGQRdsPUcF0CFc4VzGQ143 | PeterBerggren | Peter Berggren | 1,654,200,416,471 | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will Timnit Gebru and Phil Torres publicly engage in a major argument with each other before the end of 2022? | will-timnit-gebru-and-phil-torres-p | https://manifold.markets/PeterBerggren/will-timnit-gebru-and-phil-torres-p | {
"NO": 102.77571851281546,
"YES": 635.6860575141211
} | 0.032765 | 0.173229 | 140.953587 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 568.679575 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,590,654,178 | 0.03 | 7 | 1,672,546,097,481 | 1,672,546,096,280 | -1 | [
"technology-default"
] | This question resolves to "YES" if Timnit Gebru and Phil Torres publicly engage in a major argument with each other before the end of the year 2022, here defined as one of the following:
An in-person, audio, or video conversation, recorded with the intent of public viewing or listening, in which Gebru criticizes a point made by Torres two or more times and Torres criticizes a point made by Gebru two or more times
A short-form written conversation, made with the intent of public viewing (e.g. Twitter), in which Gebru criticizes a point made by Torres two or more times and Torres criticizes a point made by Gebru two or more times
A long-form written conversation, made with the intent of public viewing (e.g. blog responses), in which Gebru writes a piece in excess of 500 words that criticizes a point made in a written work of any length by Torres two or more times or Torres writes a piece in excess of 500 words that criticizes a point made in a written work of any length by Gebru two or more times
If there is a private argument for which the details are leaked, that does not count. If they argue about a subject other than longtermism, AI ethics, algorithmic bias, or human extinction, that does count.
This question resolves to "NO" if no such argument occurs prior to the end of 2022. | N/A | null | null |
|
Xm3ic11jjL5L7MR4QN5X | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,678,765,576 | 1,703,832,300,000 | Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2023-12-29 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-10727d6c75e4 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-10727d6c75e4 | {
"NO": 70.99999999999999,
"YES": 54.321537988510954
} | 0.072535 | 0.056458 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,849,566,845 | 0.07 | 2 | 1,703,849,567,150 | 1,703,824,189,845 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-29 06:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 08:45 (UTC)
00:45 (Los Angeles)
03:45 (New York)
09:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
KalNusdtM2IHNTwyK8NZ | SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93 | Sailfish | Sailfish | 1,694,268,973,885 | 1,696,638,998,969 | Will PLD's Miura 1 rocket cross the Kármán line on its first launch? | will-plds-miura-1-rocket-cross-the | https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-plds-miura-1-rocket-cross-the | {
"NO": 65.45454545454547,
"YES": 74.99999999999997
} | 0.452489 | 0.486381 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,638,998,969 | 0.45 | 1 | 1,696,615,970,441 | 1,694,270,537,420 | 1,696,615,969,563 | [
"spain",
"rockets",
"space",
"commercial-spaceflight",
"europe"
] | Miura 1 is a single-stage sub-orbital liquid fueled sounding rocket.
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. The Kármán line is an altitude of 100 kilometers above sea level. | N/A | null | null |
|
7yobcepUaGd9WFBh4JMD | J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2 | SteveSokolowski | Steve Sokolowski | 1,699,623,733,274 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c | 1,701,451,276,297 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market close November 2023 below 85%? | will-eliezer-yudkowskys-150000-ufo-551593e9ae6a | https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowskys-150000-ufo-551593e9ae6a | {
"NO": 167.9795670792796,
"YES": 652.5885639182667
} | 0.05 | 0.169759 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,326.998186 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,451,276,297 | 0.05 | 11 | 1,701,451,269,282 | 1,701,443,827,888 | 1,701,451,268,952 | [
"us-politics",
"ufo",
"eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1",
"metamarkets",
"aliens"
] | Recently, former AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick confirmed that "bits of stories" have been corroborated regarding David Grusch's UFO claims. High-ranking officials are now beginning to seriously consider that non-human intelligence exists in mainstream media articles like this:
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/4301944-aliens-or-a-foreign-power-pentagon-ufo-chief-says-someone-is-in-our-backyard/
Yet, the following market, which is one of the most liquid on Manifold:
@/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
continues to hold while other markets involving this topic on Manifold have crashed to an implied 67%:
@/SteveSokolowski/what-is-going-on-with-david-gruschs-de3add9e7579
This market will resolve to YES if the price of the mentioned market is 84% or below on December 1, 2023 at noon EST, or if the mentioned market resolves to NO before then. Note that the time is set to noon so that I can monitor it should this be close. If the mentioned market resolves to N/A before then, this market will also resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
SEE ALSO: @/SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowskys-150000-ufo | N/A | null | null |
nl3pqDvNVS7XXPYBrScp | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,683,910,449,893 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will Linda Yaccarino still be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 2023? | will-linda-yacc-still-be-the-ceo-of | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-linda-yacc-still-be-the-ceo-of | {
"NO": 8320.706627296357,
"YES": 687.6067698195358
} | 0.981841 | 0.817127 | 1,110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,311.148511 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,168,594,647 | 0.98 | 73 | 1,710,451,949,694 | 1,704,093,246,482 | 1,704,168,606,687 | [
"culture-default",
"world-default",
"twitter",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"internet",
"twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"
] | [tweet][markets] | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |
0wSHIZtHdj85ty7SKil9 | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | AVS | AVS | 1,688,545,733,628 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 1,689,662,290,136 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | will-the-black-sea-grain-deal-be-ex | https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-the-black-sea-grain-deal-be-ex | {
"NO": 254.73951222058537,
"YES": 15394.11862825942
} | 0.004539 | 0.21604 | 910 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 25,757.396886 | 0 | true | NO | 1,689,662,290,136 | 0 | 44 | 1,689,660,047,285 | 1,689,660,047,161 | 1,689,638,433,417 | [
"metaculus",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17554/black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023/ | N/A | null | null |
UO73tmegzz4e0R3hvqGW | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | Predictor | Predictor 🔥 | 1,666,381,481,455 | 1,670,358,516,398 | Will any player score a hat trick in the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | will-any-player-score-a-hat-trick-i | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-any-player-score-a-hat-trick-i | {
"NO": 2726.1765125022575,
"YES": 49.42254348744537
} | 0.977409 | 0.439578 | 540 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,741.444091 | 0 | true | YES | 1,670,358,516,398 | 0.973248 | 25 | 1,670,358,511,151 | 1,670,358,509,781 | 1,670,269,192,876 | [
"2022-fifa-world-cup"
] | Will any player score 3 goals in one match during the world cup? | N/A | null | null |
|
thpQ1PB5Ia99hTpeZUDR | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,697,743,531,697 | 1,697,814,000,000 | Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher october 20th than the close of october 19th? | will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-c60372de3e88 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-c60372de3e88 | {
"NO": 26.192060198631623,
"YES": 981.4115691030602
} | 0.01548 | 0.370739 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,338.289836 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,818,132,807 | 0.02 | 6 | 1,697,818,130,157 | 1,697,811,522,056 | 1,697,818,127,888 | [
"stocks",
"finance",
"sccsq4"
] | Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
XHCSEXzC7KwtC7zlcsSw | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,702,680,832,533 | 1,702,926,000,000 | Will the TSX close higher on December 18 than it closed on December 15? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-ffa8126f096f | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-ffa8126f096f | {
"NO": 879.6650688955041,
"YES": 190.65332425075593
} | 0.86 | 0.571067 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 973.889623 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,948,045,935 | 0.86 | 19 | 1,702,935,149,786 | 1,702,925,491,491 | 1,702,935,149,139 | [
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"stocks",
"finance",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
4CsmrAtuOGoZ6lcD7Xb7 | UQqbyZOEv9aAh46PvueNFHVO9ei2 | FoxBot | Fox News Bot | 1,695,581,358,866 | 1,706,740,200,000 | Will President Biden still be a candidate for president on Jan. 31? | will-president-biden-still-be-a-can | https://manifold.markets/FoxBot/will-president-biden-still-be-a-can | {
"NO": 13911.227671550301,
"YES": 701.3586110038087
} | 0.995904 | 0.92458 | 910 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,490.264478 | 0 | true | YES | 1,706,772,030,889 | 1 | 20 | 1,706,772,031,128 | 1,706,733,410,426 | 1,706,756,654,983 | [
"fox-predicts-9deb216bf6ac"
] | Resolves like the original question from Fox News: https://www.cultivatefox.com/forecasting_widget/510 | N/A | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | null |
|
zDzGGU4cUs4Of4Qdpm4A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,691,366,270,085 | 1,691,517,600,000 | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 8 than it closed on August 7? | will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-111c68f3719e | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-111c68f3719e | {
"NO": 391.574096084621,
"YES": 2243.0863298641248
} | 0.063378 | 0.27934 | 790 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,193.07394 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,524,949,556 | 0.06 | 41 | 1,691,524,926,745 | 1,691,517,576,576 | 1,691,524,924,602 | [
"sp-forecasting-august-d93452445aae",
"stocks-and-crypto-forecasting",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"stocks"
] | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. | N/A | null | null |
|
SMzHO8T1wjSwsYFWSZUH | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,659,291,071,639 | 1,672,551,869,619 | Will Taiwan declare independence in 2022? | will-taiwan-declare-independence-in | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-taiwan-declare-independence-in | {
"NO": 12.725506894983482,
"YES": 5595.799534143129
} | 0.001092 | 0.324741 | 120 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,579.649082 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,551,869,619 | 0.03 | 7 | 1,672,551,823,331 | 1,672,551,823,168 | -1 | [
"politics-default",
"pelosi-taiwan-visit",
"taiwan",
"global-macro"
] | Resolves YES if Taiwan makes a formal declaration of independence in 2022. There are many possible and ambiguous meanings of this, so this will resolve based on if multiple reliable media publications describe it as such. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_independence_movement for some background on the political situation and the differing interpretations of independence. | N/A | null | null |
|
OzaBEqKKW5dtgYoLPU9Y | UH3ytmHjwhVEcJ5ZFOcOkzRCJ833 | angus | angus | 1,710,708,252,199 | 1,710,747,310,945 | Will xAI's grok GitHub repo receive more stars than MistralAI's mistral-src repo? | will-xais-grok-github-repo-receive | https://manifold.markets/angus/will-xais-grok-github-repo-receive | {
"NO": 188.70285913236054,
"YES": 171.86119305017996
} | 0.532097 | 0.508768 | 180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 21 | 0 | true | YES | 1,710,747,310,945 | 0.53 | 4 | 1,710,747,311,566 | 1,710,722,489,135 | 1,710,747,298,323 | [
"open-source",
"mistral",
"github",
"ai",
"xai"
] | The question resolves to true if 'xai-org/grok' repo has more stars than 'mistralai/mistral-src' repo at any point before April 16, 2024. Note that both repositories only contain examples of how to run the code and do not include actual weights. At the time of creation, the star count for 'grok' is 1.5k, while the current star count for 'mistral-src' is 8.2k.
https://github.com/xai-org/grok
https://github.com/mistralai/mistral-src | N/A | UH3ytmHjwhVEcJ5ZFOcOkzRCJ833 | null |
|
2CaowuWau8XJZqbscXK9 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,681,741,124,238 | 1,711,984,226,504 | Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 1st April 2024? | will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-f1193d82653e | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-rishi-sunak-be-replaced-as-pri-f1193d82653e | {
"NO": 203.90014720153704,
"YES": 62256.49671084596
} | 0.000738 | 0.18396 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 64,937.968654 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,984,226,504 | 0 | 31 | 1,711,984,226,504 | 1,711,983,973,225 | 1,711,984,216,194 | [
"politics-default"
] | This will resolve to YES if Rishi Sunak is replaced as Prime Minister for any reason before 1st April 2024.
The main reasons why a Prime Minister would be replaced:
If General Election is held and Sunak no longer has the support of the majoirty of the House after the election, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is replaced as the leader of the Conservative Party, there is a party split or he loses the confidence of the majority of the house for any other reason, he would be expected to resign and the King will invite someone else to form a Government
If Sunak is incapacitated, the King may invite someone else to form a Government
Note that if any of these scenarios occurs, he continues to be Prime Minister until the King accepts his resignation. When Gordon Brown lost the General Election onn 6th May 2010, he still served as Prime Minister for another few days until his resignation and David Cameron's appointment on 11th May.
If Sunak is incapacitated and someone else (such as the Deputy Prime Minister) takes over his duties without being formally appointed as Prime Minister, that will not be enough to satisfy the requirements for this market.
More information about the constitutional process is here:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/how-is-a-prime-minister-appointed/ | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
wAgl4DdaM03XMhsqj2dW | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | KevinBurke | Kevin Burke | 1,694,413,602,469 | 1,697,401,350,970 | NFL Week 6 (Oct 15): Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Seattle Seahawks? | nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-cincinna | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nfl-week-6-oct-15-will-the-cincinna | {
"NO": 25536.23521301345,
"YES": 18.795441003821907
} | 0.999756 | 0.750978 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 28,497.852481 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,401,350,970 | 1 | 19 | 1,697,401,346,499 | 1,697,401,346,362 | -1 | [
"nfl"
] | The game will take place at Paycor Stadium at 10:00 PDT on October 15, 2023.
A game ending in a tie will resolve NO. A game that does not have a winner (e.g. Bills-Bengals last year) will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. | N/A | null | null |
|
5Xt7pY13t8LBHhVvFHRu | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,691,757,160,048 | 1,692,036,000,000 | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 14 than it closed on August 11? | will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-90994ab74671 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-90994ab74671 | {
"NO": 1342.0677064912109,
"YES": 299.9043789579783
} | 0.89231 | 0.649321 | 530 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,909.559672 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,055,806,416 | 0.89 | 27 | 1,692,055,901,257 | 1,692,035,935,437 | 1,692,055,897,957 | [
"stocks",
"stocks-and-crypto-forecasting",
"sp-forecasting-august-d93452445aae",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. | N/A | null | null |
|
n3RJDErau1H7HSfGY1o5 | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | Tetraspace | Tetra | 1,684,792,353,869 | 1,697,566,629,744 | Will California AB 1633 (AB 1633 - Hold Cities Accountable pass in the 2023 - 24 legislative session? | will-california-ab-1633-ab-1633-hol | https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-california-ab-1633-ab-1633-hol | {
"NO": 482.95556883651227,
"YES": 45.33151886110291
} | 0.960069 | 0.692948 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 546.4325 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,566,629,744 | 0.96 | 6 | 1,697,566,441,399 | 1,697,083,571,024 | 1,697,566,440,646 | [
"yimby",
"california"
] | California YIMBY: AB 1633 will end the inappropriate abuse of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) by jurisdictions that attempt to block new housing developments that have already been found in compliance with local and state land use and environmental regulations. The bill does not amend or otherwise change CEQA in any way, but rather adds further legal clarification and certainty around prior state efforts to ensure that environmentally beneficial and legally compliant homes are permitted and built.
| N/A | null | ||
eAT9TfXRopzjsFUGELu0 | xSB92N0T1aaunSfQolylHbGxCI72 | Heliscone | Heliscone | 1,682,094,497,643 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1Av7f9VfKmifohtK3purGKF2jmhG8vhQEHoh-h=s96-c | 1,682,485,140,000 | Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2023 Stanley Cup? | will-the-anaheim-ducks-win-the-2023 | https://manifold.markets/Heliscone/will-the-anaheim-ducks-win-the-2023 | {
"NO": 37.36507231163557,
"YES": 1150.9999999999998
} | 0.006754 | 0.173185 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,061 | 0 | true | NO | 1,682,485,323,287 | 0.01 | 4 | 1,682,479,390,696 | 1,682,479,390,599 | -1 | [
"sports-default"
] | I wonder how many manifolders actually follow, or have the initiative to google about, hockey? | N/A | null | |
KWn3WLhBsIdt8URqiElo | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,686,321,813,238 | 1,686,476,106,061 | Will Eryk Anders beat Marc-André Barriault at UFC 289? | will-eryk-anders-beat-marcandre-bar | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-eryk-anders-beat-marcandre-bar | {
"NO": 33.767165150484594,
"YES": 4141.685814377511
} | 0.001086 | 0.117613 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,929.804268 | 0 | true | NO | 1,686,476,106,061 | 0 | 5 | 1,686,467,868,576 | 1,686,467,868,413 | -1 | [
"ufc-289"
] | Eryk Anders and Marc-André Barriault are scheduled to fight at UFC 289 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on June 10, 2023.
If Eryk Anders wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Marc-André Barriault wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
| N/A | null | ||
EtsPT0YC3uy26znpQpyK | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,665,596,451,985 | 1,665,610,287,594 | Is the issue described inside a bug with market payouts going missing? | is-the-issue-described-inside-a-bug | https://manifold.markets/jack/is-the-issue-described-inside-a-bug | {
"NO": 11343.443662718262,
"YES": 5.459320635824042
} | 0.99973 | 0.640483 | 120 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,230 | 0 | true | YES | 1,665,610,287,594 | 0.992502 | 2 | 1,665,614,104,202 | 1,665,610,280,647 | 1,665,614,099,693 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | Resolves YES if there is a bug with market payouts that explains at least one of the following observed issues, NO if they are explained as a non-bug. N/A if unknown/ambiguous. Market will resolve when we figure it out or I deem it unlikely that any further progress will be made.
Here's one report:
Does anyone know why the profit went down by like 1000 after a favorable market resolution? It looks like it could be a bug https://manifold.markets/pg https://manifold.markets/pg/will-my-computer-get-repeaed-this-b
And here's what I hit:
trying to understand why my profit graph suddenly dropped by 11,285 half an hour ago even though my daily profit shows as M$-150 and i don't see anything in my portfolio that could explain it. my mana balance also is about 10k lower than it was yesterday
the only big trade i executed was dumping 10k into a market that i then immediately resolved
but the market says it paid my investment out as expected
this is the market: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-adnan-syed-featured-in-the-ser
yeah this is pretty sus, my investment in this market was 11245 and payout supposedly 11342. if somehow that payout just disappeared that would line up with the other numbers
i'm looking at my portfolio, and none of my positions could possibly have moved that much because my biggest positions are a bit north of 10k and they moved at most a few percent.
i think i also didn't get an email about the resolution | N/A | null | null |
|
iFOAdWqsWn2DRalN623v | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,698,014,124 | 1,700,780,400,000 | Will BNB close higher on November 23 than it closed on November 22? | will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-2-fefc0b3b3ab6 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-2-fefc0b3b3ab6 | {
"NO": 96.08597305346579,
"YES": 538.7768988654825
} | 0.092194 | 0.362834 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,245.637369 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,784,524,075 | 0.09 | 10 | 1,700,784,520,037 | 1,700,779,770,551 | 1,700,784,519,393 | [
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD
Previous Close: $236.3271
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
XxjQux8uUikMPa1dBhXL | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,701,757,097,232 | 1,702,350,000,000 | Will Gold Feb 24 close higher on Dec 11 than Dec 4? (GC=F Weekly) | will-gold-feb-24-close-higher-on-de-a0865c379269 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-gold-feb-24-close-higher-on-de-a0865c379269 | {
"NO": 43.60953070636649,
"YES": 311.49970545257406
} | 0.082978 | 0.392593 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 240.166961 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,359,083,605 | 0.08 | 4 | 1,702,359,077,664 | 1,702,312,207,929 | 1,702,359,076,948 | [
"futures-stocks",
"finance",
"stocks",
"economics-default",
"gold-stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Gold closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier.
Previous Close Price: 2,024.10
This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price.
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
8utETsGHulN0DiDR5MFC | Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03 | WXTJ | WXTJ | 1,671,535,148,155 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will the UK Minister for Crime, Policing, and Fire, Chris Philp, be in post at the end of 2023? | will-the-uk-minister-for-crime-poli | https://manifold.markets/WXTJ/will-the-uk-minister-for-crime-poli | {
"NO": 1882.4612474723863,
"YES": 75.15901138277313
} | 0.983672 | 0.706347 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,767.396392 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,496,199,395 | 0.98 | 12 | 1,704,496,199,623 | 1,703,837,405,552 | 1,704,291,993,999 | [
"politics-default",
"uk-politics",
"uk",
"crime",
"ancient-markets",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | In post = officially in his ministerial post. He can still be an MP, but this does not affect the resolution of this market.
His portfolio covers drug policy too. Topics in his portfolio that are in the media include policing of protests, county lines, changing punishments for drug possession, regulation of psychedelic research, firearms licensing, and cladding (and fire risk) on public buildings.
https://www.gov.uk/government/people/chris-philp-mp
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/25377/chris_philp/croydon_south | N/A | Y1lQV3vFHvPREeehRQpV4MN66A03 | ||
rrmh7uRrjvJi1TOM5CCo | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,700,852,060,133 | 1,701,100,800,000 | Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher november 27th than the close of november 24th? (Daily Market) | will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-3271a392763b | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-3271a392763b | {
"NO": 92.5739279485304,
"YES": 423.76406902281195
} | 0.14 | 0.426995 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 583.583825 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,104,891,221 | 0.14 | 10 | 1,710,222,357,134 | 1,701,100,422,519 | 1,701,104,887,415 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
vJkPUDv9JrdI39acJOLa | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | Keepcalmandchill | Keepcalmandchill | 1,660,169,401,110 | 1,672,491,540,000 | Will Ukraine successfully attack the Kerch Strait Bridge during 2022? | will-ukraine-successfully-attack-th | https://manifold.markets/Keepcalmandchill/will-ukraine-successfully-attack-th | {
"NO": 468.9271877172673,
"YES": 120.90740024426441
} | 0.897588 | 0.693235 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,040.749569 | 0 | true | YES | 1,672,538,410,517 | 0.9 | 37 | 1,672,480,109,785 | 1,672,480,109,676 | 1,669,931,687,317 | [
"world-default",
"ukraine",
"russia",
"wars",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge?wprov=sfla1 | N/A | null | null |
|
JWoMZGNNwyLaVm80PTLD | XmhDIfEblIemOVplUHaSYzZnYtp2 | Emfee5 | Em | 1,698,266,257,038 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKVvka38f3RmpC6eiEeSZp4skjQrRIQ1cyLtFa9_SrJ=s96-c | 1,706,024,964,045 | Will Lily Gladstone be nominated for an Academy Award for Killers of the Flower Moon (2023) | will-lily-gladstone-be-nominated-fo | https://manifold.markets/Emfee5/will-lily-gladstone-be-nominated-fo | {
"NO": 1684.6840448925923,
"YES": 100.67970702793708
} | 0.982693 | 0.772383 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,452.532074 | 0 | true | YES | 1,706,024,964,045 | 0.98 | 11 | 1,706,024,964,434 | 1,705,783,049,338 | 1,706,018,841,324 | [
"oscars-2024",
"academy-awards",
"television-film",
"awards-shows",
"movies"
] | N/A | XmhDIfEblIemOVplUHaSYzZnYtp2 | null |
|
dwgqJKJz9OFiFc6C9HWP | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,705,021,171,254 | 1,707,176,219,229 | Will "Argylle" (2024) gross >$25M on its opening weekend? | will-argylle-2024-gross-25m-on-its | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-argylle-2024-gross-25m-on-its | {
"NO": 106.6922957783695,
"YES": 18963.984369704573
} | 0.002512 | 0.309173 | 590 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,568.059271 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,176,219,229 | 0 | 32 | 1,707,176,219,997 | 1,707,176,182,520 | 1,707,167,989,952 | [
"culture-default",
"entertainment",
"movies",
"television-film",
"boxoffice",
"hollywood",
"dua-lipa"
] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Argylle" (2024) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15009428/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by February 9th, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image] | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | ||
tCFcCaJm8QXFff3SGvcF | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,891,427,603 | 1,701,964,800,000 | Will Deutsche Telekom close higher december 7th than the close of december 6th? (Daily Market) | will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-c761caeae489 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-c761caeae489 | {
"NO": 111.27687395756018,
"YES": 1403.1189423211058
} | 0.02027 | 0.206901 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,364.262026 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,975,075,962 | 0.02 | 12 | 1,710,222,358,617 | 1,701,961,966,389 | 1,701,975,071,669 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
fM8aFZFrhkklJ8zBIKAH | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | MarcusAbramovitch | Marcus Abramovitch | 1,694,284,591,491 | 1,704,171,540,000 | Will the total number of people staying in NYC homeless shelters exceed 100,000 for any day of 2023? | will-the-total-number-of-people-sta-44880bcf055b | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-total-number-of-people-sta-44880bcf055b | {
"NO": 14.801055015702104,
"YES": 920.9260400471651
} | 0.02 | 0.559433 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 879.809069 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,039,068,401 | 0.02 | 6 | 1,705,039,068,670 | 1,704,084,015,303 | 1,704,885,894,851 | [
"urbanism",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolution Criteria
The resolution source is the NYC Department of Homeless Services Daily Report. To resolve this question, download the ‘DHS_Daily_Report.csv’ on January 2, 2024 (or later, if data for December 31, 2023 is not yet available). Then, select the 2023 data and sort ‘total_individuals_in_shelter’. If any day of 2023 shows a number higher than 100,000, this question resolves positively. If it is not, this question resolves negatively. If the DHS ceases publication of this data series, this question resolves ambiguously.
Fine Print
To access the resolution source, you have to make an account, though this is cheap and quick and should be possible for anyone interested in forecasting (or resolving) this question.
The Department of Homeless Services (DHS) is a New York City agency dedicated to preventing homelessness, addressing street homelessness, providing temporary shelter, and connecting individuals to suitable housing through collaboration with not-for-profit partners. With an annual budget of over $2 billion and 2,000 employees, DHS aims help clients transition from shelters to self-sufficiency. The agency's critical objectives include preventing households from becoming homeless, reducing street homelessness, ensuring temporary shelter availability, increasing client engagement, maintaining shelter safety, and reducing shelter stays to promote stable community housing. According to the DHS data, NYC homeless individuals in shelter (run by the DHS) in 2022 ranged from 45,213 on January 1 to 66,334 on Dec 31. As of writing this question in late March 2023, the low for 2023 was 66,564 on Jan 1, with a high of 72,522 on March 28.
This increase in individuals using DHS homeless shelters has been acknowledged by the local government, which has promised to increase funding to homeless services. | N/A | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | null |
|
diZklhSO2XgZBq16PPRJ | 7ASzYqiYCteQQhOp05aFFfLyp8C2 | chilli | chilli | 1,685,830,554,241 | 1,686,034,740,000 | Will Spiderman: Across the Spiderverse gross over 115 million domestically on its opening weekend? | will-across-the-spiderverse-gross-o | https://manifold.markets/chilli/will-across-the-spiderverse-gross-o | {
"NO": 10503.496228263883,
"YES": 159.07080942997322
} | 0.997905 | 0.878265 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 72,538.749527 | 0 | true | YES | 1,686,066,918,326 | 1 | 16 | 1,686,034,713,523 | 1,686,034,713,343 | 1,685,933,166,119 | [
"movies"
] | Will use numbers from here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2812183041/ | N/A | null | ||
KTCwFDqKPTZ4Er7c4Dnx | 1NEEOJpFStV32EAHkUZg3QFMgcS2 | FIGBERTFIGBERT | FIGBERT FIGBERT | 1,672,804,626,046 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4g26C7iR4TMNWed8PClVIsZO0y7gqgVl166OXV=s96-c | 1,696,188,600,000 | Will Congress extend its moratorium on private spaceflight regulation? | will-congress-extend-its-moratorium | https://manifold.markets/FIGBERTFIGBERT/will-congress-extend-its-moratorium | {
"NO": 666.6881692191246,
"YES": 221.87399056591218
} | 0.9 | 0.7497 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,717.604983 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,524,924,074 | 0.9 | 15 | 1,703,524,915,344 | 1,696,187,551,399 | 1,703,524,914,629 | [
"space",
"spacex",
"technology-default",
"politics-default",
"us-politics"
] | Executive summary: https://www.axios.com/2023/01/03/private-human-spaceflight-regulations
Report to Congress: https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/DRAFT%20RTC%20Safety%20Framework%20for%20Commercial%20HSF%20Activities.pdf
Previously extended by the the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 and the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act. | N/A | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |
ON7BLBwQxZGNxPplel01 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,689,774,692,145 | 1,689,876,000,000 | Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) close higher on July 20th than it closed on July 19th? | will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-46e85d02f580 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-46e85d02f580 | {
"NO": 1780.7211183856432,
"YES": 91.26036210194484
} | 0.981448 | 0.730547 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,156.454626 | 0 | true | YES | 1,689,883,375,542 | 0.98 | 11 | 1,689,883,374,067 | 1,689,870,986,224 | 1,689,883,371,976 | [
"economics-default",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"stocks",
"finance"
] | DJI closes at 4pm EDT. Predictions close at 2pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
[link preview]If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-2689c19f36bb)(https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-d4905b2d2738)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-9b11a3e72304)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-7d4ddc74a6d7)I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
LEADERBOARD STATS & PRIZES | N/A | null | null |
|
92suNN3Yl0LzDs5f2R3q | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | PunishedFurry | Punished Furry | 1,712,021,583,131 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 1,714,546,740,000 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 449k subs in April 2024? | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-fa3ddd7edf82 | https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-fa3ddd7edf82 | {
"NO": 116.1216159452922,
"YES": 3708.374208278597
} | 0.009954 | 0.243044 | 420 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,240.774339 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,546,857,291 | 0.01 | 18 | 1,714,546,740,000 | 1,714,374,239,426 | 1,713,593,770,627 | [
"vaush",
"destinygg",
"politics-default",
"youtube"
] | Will the bleeding continue?
Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24
[image]
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_
Related Markets:
[markets] | N/A | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | null |
NtdXJRSkJBp2qSBhqCG6 | JOtRJkyhFIVfXpRfhfUC3cEMt2W2 | Ibozz91 | Ibozz91 | 1,660,954,539,503 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhZeWkva417nEYnDQ62R6ZPYMbJH85FbNqnBmc1LA=s96-c | 1,662,719,410,654 | Will the 2022 Alaska House Election result in a Condorcet failure? | will-the-2022-alaska-house-election | https://manifold.markets/Ibozz91/will-the-2022-alaska-house-election | {
"NO": 386.10771030871604,
"YES": 25.899508694100973
} | 0.937138 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 516.266789 | 0 | true | YES | 1,662,719,410,654 | 0.937138 | 11 | 1,662,754,768,571 | 1,662,692,533,783 | 1,662,754,766,553 | [
"us-2022-elections"
] | A “Condorcet winner” is the candidate that can strictly beat every other candidate head-to-head.
If the IRV winner ≠ Condorcet winner, this will resolve YES.
If the IRV winner = Condorcet winner, this will resolve NO.
If there is no ballot data to determine a Condorcet winner by the end of 2022, this will resolve N/A.
If there is no Condorcet winner, this will resolve N/A.
If there is an IRV tie, the IRV winner will be whoever is chosen, random or otherwise. | N/A | null | null |