id
stringlengths 20
20
| creatorId
stringlengths 28
28
| creatorUsername
stringlengths 1
24
| creatorName
stringlengths 1
29
| createdTime
int64 1,640B
1,717B
| creatorAvatarUrl
stringlengths 84
1.01k
| closeTime
int64 1,642B
1,718B
| question
stringlengths 2
282
| slug
stringlengths 8
48
| url
stringlengths 39
94
| pool
dict | probability
float64 0
1
| p
float64 0.01
1
| totalLiquidity
float64 10.1
12.1k
| outcomeType
stringclasses 1
value | mechanism
stringclasses 1
value | volume
float64 0
1.54M
| volume24Hours
float64 0
11.2k
| isResolved
bool 1
class | resolution
stringclasses 2
values | resolutionTime
int64 1,642B
1,718B
| resolutionProbability
float64 -1
1
| uniqueBettorCount
int64 0
2.16k
| lastUpdatedTime
int64 1,640B
1,718B
| lastBetTime
int64 -1
1,718B
| lastCommentTime
int64 -1
1,718B
| groupSlugs
sequencelengths 0
17
| textDescription
stringlengths 0
7.4k
| marketTier
stringclasses 2
values | resolverId
stringclasses 733
values | coverImageUrl
stringlengths 94
581
⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
gjx5snz9IwISYER8Zv49 | VUFKTGYZJEONGFZZNGmi7Tgxa3z1 | Yindoh | Yiannis | 1,705,562,718,018 | 1,711,936,116,073 | Will the 10-2 year treasury yield spread remain in negative territory (inverted) until April 1, 2024? | will-the-102-year-treasury-yield-sp | https://manifold.markets/Yindoh/will-the-102-year-treasury-yield-sp | {
"NO": 736.0683687966409,
"YES": 99.30503437901572
} | 0.93 | 0.641887 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 791.759197 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,936,116,073 | 0.93 | 13 | 1,711,936,116,073 | 1,711,543,747,146 | -1 | [
"economics-default",
"monetary-policy",
"dollarization",
"usd"
] | Will resolve to Yes if 2 year treasury yields are still higher than 10 year treasury yields by April 1, 2024 according to the Federal Reserve source here: (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y) | N/A | VUFKTGYZJEONGFZZNGmi7Tgxa3z1 | ||
7jxDS5wepIa5i2JTOhOM | CWYD2cZe7NNoDiG06qVS46DkDp32 | JamesMd866 | Master_J | 1,696,842,102,475 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK8RW5GyTOMjNdOZUAznqcS8CYXzhAmdp5RFGvDNFtWotqp=s96-c | 1,697,342,340,000 | Will Keegan Swenson beat Tom Pidcock in the Little Sugar 100? | will-keegan-swenson-beat-tom-pidcoc | https://manifold.markets/JamesMd866/will-keegan-swenson-beat-tom-pidcoc | {
"NO": 160.72938478955746,
"YES": 175.11476163597035
} | 0.327088 | 0.346227 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 166.815345 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,410,402,382 | 0.33 | 9 | 1,697,412,144,205 | 1,697,339,642,395 | 1,697,412,143,569 | [
"arkansas",
"road-bicycle-racing"
] | Keegan is a top American gravel cyclist coming off a 5th place at the UCI world gravel cycling championships. Tom Pidcock is the current world champion mountain biker. They have not raced against each other. Who will win? | N/A | null | null |
50ax8ERp0rDWpK2113FE | ci3npTDMBMMxuFGR5Fxs4BcCesJ3 | Adam | Adam | 1,668,498,500,946 | 1,670,716,740,000 | Will a discord bot still report when anybody buys mana at the end of 2022? | will-a-discord-bot-still-report-whe | https://manifold.markets/Adam/will-a-discord-bot-still-report-whe | {
"NO": 304.99999999999983,
"YES": 89.6945778703976
} | 0.931186 | 0.799176 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 175 | 0 | true | YES | 1,672,546,193,152 | 0.93 | 4 | 1,672,546,191,918 | 1,670,713,052,895 | 1,672,546,189,924 | [
"technology-default"
] | On Dec 31st/Jan 1st, I will look at the #discord-bots channel and see if it looks like the bot is still running. if it is ambiguous, I will use my best judgement (including potentially asking the manifold team) to resolve this accurately.
Close date updated to 2022-12-01 3:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-12-10 3:59 pm
As noted in comments, this will resolve TRUE if some mana purchases are automatically announced, even if smaller denominations, e.g. $10, are no longer announced. | N/A | null | ||
GiZBbZmrwcDmxdti8G6x | ZSoTVLS3SNdBLZ4OatZBgSdCsOH3 | Noilen | Noilen | 1,708,108,976,935 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL54tR3ZAizXYWFox_a28WvcG85exOdrbWDQ1zg8ZBB=s96-c | 1,711,389,020,188 | Will Kim Putters succeed in his task of finding a new coalition for the Dutch government? | will-kim-putters-succeed-in-his-tas | https://manifold.markets/Noilen/will-kim-putters-succeed-in-his-tas | {
"NO": 70.71793522284139,
"YES": 348.88794222189944
} | 0.100886 | 0.356321 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 492.394909 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,389,020,188 | 0.1 | 7 | 1,711,389,020,188 | 1,711,373,422,314 | 1,711,013,786,017 | [
"the-netherlands",
"politics-default",
"2023-dutch-tweede-kamer-election",
"nederland"
] | Kim Putters is currently "informateur" and is tasked with finding a set of parties willing to work together.
This market will resolve to YES if Kim Putters suggests an approach that is accepted, in the sense that a "formateur" is chosen for it.
This market will resolve to NO if at least one of the following happens:
A new informateur is appointed, or
New elections are called. | N/A | ZSoTVLS3SNdBLZ4OatZBgSdCsOH3 | |
6YjRiPD6XQxGTYo6Mgn8 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,682,965,049,247 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,683,244,143,977 | Democrat vs Republican (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of Ṁ10k per) | democrat-vs-republican-3-day-market-8c09a67d5f8e | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/democrat-vs-republican-3-day-market-8c09a67d5f8e | {
"NO": 10123.367587431298,
"YES": 1.119864917958693
} | 0.999897 | 0.518568 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,026 | 0 | true | YES | 1,683,244,143,977 | 1 | 5 | 1,704,341,144,822 | 1,683,244,139,826 | 1,683,244,124,383 | [
"gambling",
"whale-watching",
"fun",
"nonpredictive",
"unsubsidized"
] | Yes = Democrat
No = Republican
I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.
Rules
The largest single limit order you can put down is Ṁ10k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:
Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a Ṁ100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.
Prevent whales from putting down multiple Ṁ10k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.
Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.
Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a Ṁ50k or Ṁ100k limit order and automatically win.
If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.
After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.
Market closes on 5/4/23 7 A.M. PST | N/A | null | |
XRZ3AXhOjuLVl2zKklbs | bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52 | GoncaloM | Gonçalo M | 1,691,780,143,109 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c | 1,692,451,719,273 | Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $115 per share on August 18, 2023? | will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p | https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p | {
"NO": 125.02189118942562,
"YES": 2796.390832600124
} | 0.00498 | 0.100681 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,089.075174 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,451,719,273 | 0 | 12 | 1,692,409,991,819 | 1,692,409,991,684 | 1,692,396,142,131 | [
"economics-default",
"finance",
"tech-stocks",
"stocks"
] | Weekly prediction on how AMD stock will perform:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ
Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $115 USD on the closing price of 18 of August, 2023. Any moves above $115 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
5DAQk4P1nm8L0SDWBFCM | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,704,358,330,100 | 1,704,370,768,105 | Will anyone crash Tetris by scoring a single upon transitioning to level 155, by 2025 end? | will-anyone-crash-tetris-by-scoring | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-anyone-crash-tetris-by-scoring | {
"NO": 1203.5534307826679,
"YES": 75.06825588296391
} | 0.982242 | 0.775282 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,399.891036 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,370,768,105 | 0.98 | 9 | 1,704,370,768,684 | 1,704,370,703,383 | 1,704,370,728,365 | [
"records",
"gaming",
"tetris",
"world-records",
"board-games"
] | From A 13-year-old is the first human to beat Tetris
no one has yet crashed Tetris at the earliest theoretical opportunity by scoring a single upon transitioning to level 155. | N/A | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | ||
JjgF7xOPZxztXD3PMJGW | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,701,729,140,983 | 1,701,817,200,000 | Will XLM close higher on December 5 than it closed on December 4? | will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-5 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-5 | {
"NO": 159.45748467525146,
"YES": 152.7087548462349
} | 0.443242 | 0.432598 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 925.990082 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,823,473,569 | 0.44 | 10 | 1,701,823,443,036 | 1,701,816,646,706 | 1,701,823,442,255 | [
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $0.1220
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | null | ||
0Ksf4kxJT5iLVQIaRubD | nCaHp617xGWrwKIgttaKxD5NlJ73 | Imuli | Imuli | 1,672,778,599,203 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu33Y46q9VGNdqk4PKft1wPXReKcGRkRlfw-k_nhqQ=s96-c | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will the Kids Online Safety Act be signed into law in 2023? | will-the-kids-online-safety-act-be | https://manifold.markets/Imuli/will-the-kids-online-safety-act-be | {
"NO": 264.04874342608355,
"YES": 7044.221218717347
} | 0.01774 | 0.325151 | 810 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,101.001008 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,070,344,976 | 0.02 | 45 | 1,704,070,345,499 | 1,704,031,014,193 | 1,700,769,112,067 | [
"internet",
"us-politics",
"end-to-end-encryption",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | KOSA was introduced to the Senate last year with bipartisan support. It faced opposition from privacy and LGBTQIA+ advocacy groups and failed to make it into the end of year omibus spending bill in the Senate. Its proponents have stated that they will try again this year.
The bill was introduced in early May, the text is here. So we'll go with whether this gets signed into law this year.
[markets] | N/A | nCaHp617xGWrwKIgttaKxD5NlJ73 | null |
HgItXOl9YoVqIZRdzV8z | kB8B9wkkCeRj0a3rvri2ZzZxhpN2 | jonsimon | Jon Simon | 1,680,360,375,958 | 1,696,132,740,000 | Will Manifold allow you to delete your own comments by October 2023? | will-manifold-allow-you-to-delete-y | https://manifold.markets/jonsimon/will-manifold-allow-you-to-delete-y | {
"NO": 138.8977803542874,
"YES": 4597.901589516228
} | 0.01033 | 0.256792 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,351.990422 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,632,070,619 | 0.01 | 24 | 1,696,131,482,523 | 1,696,131,482,149 | 1,691,286,033,843 | [
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"
] | Many highly informative discussions happen in the per-market comment sections. However sometimes a user leaves a comment that they think better of later, and wish to remove.
Will Manifold fix this problem by adding the ability to delete previously-posted comments? This market will resolve to YES if a button or other interface change makes it possible to delete your own comments by the end of September 2023.
It still counts as a deletion even if some trace is left saying e.g. "[this comment was removed]"
You must be able to delete your own comments on any market they're posted on, therefore the current "Hide Comment" button doesn't count because it can only be used on markets that you yourself created. | N/A | null | ||
Hd3rSwpBoRty65zBOzSA | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,678,571,814,726 | 1,685,653,453,859 | If Biden is not hospitalized overnight, will he file for reelection before June 1? | if-biden-is-not-hospitalized-overni | https://manifold.markets/jack/if-biden-is-not-hospitalized-overni | {
"NO": 11147.34690400607,
"YES": 117.18599763425524
} | 0.999391 | 0.94521 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 17,741.40129 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,653,453,859 | 1 | 11 | 1,685,641,630,696 | 1,685,641,629,522 | -1 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"the-life-of-biden"
] | Resolves N/A if Biden is hospitalized overnight before June 1.
Resolves YES if before June 1, he is not hospitalized overnight and files for reelection.
Resolves NO if before June 1, he is not hospitalized overnight and does not file for reelection.
Please note: whether the hospitalization happens before or after the filing does not matter for resolution.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-biden-be-hospitalized-overnigh-1fa59e514939)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-biden-file-for-reelection-befo-6ff6eae5ef7e) | N/A | null | ||
6Fn0lYL4aLaNfoSkw8qq | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,692,638,866,576 | 1,692,727,200,000 | Will the TSX close higher on August 22 than it did on August 21? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-b68e745d0195 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-b68e745d0195 | {
"NO": 145.8233187705481,
"YES": 777.7381557624296
} | 0.07 | 0.286449 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 823.679136 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,735,039,409 | 0.07 | 14 | 1,692,735,032,658 | 1,692,726,038,565 | 1,692,735,030,593 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market. | N/A | null | null |
|
PliBP1ZpgM82v7Iuo0jg | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,132,698,631 | 1,702,310,400,000 | Will Siemens close higher december 11th than the close of december 8th? (Daily Market) | will-siemens-close-higher-december-8c67b6e3f97c | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-december-8c67b6e3f97c | {
"NO": 395.6081272823109,
"YES": 137.2968544521515
} | 0.900845 | 0.759212 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 302 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,316,150,929 | 0.9 | 8 | 1,710,222,343,783 | 1,702,304,027,265 | 1,702,316,144,156 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | null |
|
Pe0PZQXuGqH5B58buHDb | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,702,548,497,088 | 1,702,702,200,000 | Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2023-12-16 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-409abeb5704c | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-409abeb5704c | {
"NO": 75.01695241955265,
"YES": 50.703276614229964
} | 0.26 | 0.191903 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,736,978,189 | 0.26 | 3 | 1,702,692,056,169 | 1,702,692,056,008 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-16 04:50 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-16 - 06:50 (UTC)
22:50 (Los Angeles)
01:50 (New York)
07:50 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:10
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
vMrdIgMq4fYglHzPouRo | q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2 | aashiq | aashiq | 1,709,846,591,255 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VZlz6mNajaBLii3A0z76YIPyr0zXxzVWxdAy8=s96-c | 1,710,017,595,635 | Will the State of the Union move Biden's chances by 1% or more? | will-the-state-of-the-union-move-bi | https://manifold.markets/aashiq/will-the-state-of-the-union-move-bi | {
"NO": 252.5362577135927,
"YES": 1223.023925628747
} | 0.128935 | 0.41754 | 500 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,074.891844 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,017,595,635 | 0.13 | 21 | 1,710,017,596,916 | 1,710,003,840,077 | 1,709,924,261,745 | [
"the-life-of-biden",
"state-of-the-union",
"politics-default"
] | Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres trades at an average price below 45% OR above 47% between 9PM and 10PM EST on 2024-03-08 . Resolves NO otherwise.
Of course something else could happen besides the SOTU. If so, I will resolve based on my best judgement of the true cause. I plan to heavily lean on the price action in the absence of clear evidence to the contrary (severe illness, Trump doing something crazy etc).
| N/A | q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2 | null |
ZWICPc1Wwkm0GgXzMcqX | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,697,140,904,969 | 1,697,156,562,205 | Will FR flight 907 from London to Cork on 2023-10-12 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)? | will-fr-flight-907-from-london-to-c | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-907-from-london-to-c | {
"NO": 89.95632632890029,
"YES": 87.86492984942132
} | 0.586497 | 0.580781 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 62.584416 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,156,562,205 | 0.59 | 5 | 1,697,150,139,133 | 1,697,150,138,988 | -1 | [] | !!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/bdhjrvzx | N/A | null | null |
|
UhaMOUvHqidrdzf7oeWt | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,412,112,830 | 1,703,547,000,000 | Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-26 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-e99c25a14160 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-e99c25a14160 | {
"NO": 92.6572591677879,
"YES": 60.774877150599714
} | 0.21111 | 0.149316 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,670,551,832 | 0.21 | 3 | 1,703,670,552,130 | 1,703,542,413,105 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-25 23:30 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-26 - 01:30 (UTC)
17:30 (Los Angeles)
20:30 (New York)
02:30 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 07:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
PVhrDlOJRvgeg5Oy4gkK | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,690,061,672,190 | 1,690,153,200,000 | Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher July 23rd Than July 22nd? | will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-j | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-j | {
"NO": 607.9834592885406,
"YES": 123.57020227981624
} | 0.9 | 0.646545 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 423.666307 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,158,158,679 | 0.9 | 10 | 1,690,158,134,791 | 1,690,152,143,907 | 1,690,158,131,958 | [
"economics-default",
"crypto-speculation",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 hours prior.
JULY 22nd Close Value: $1,863.66
[image]Resolves according to the display at
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD
[link preview]If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-j)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-ju-e05e02262075)I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
LEADERBOARD STATS & PRIZES | N/A | null | null |
|
KRP4AbUm9v9XdzPzzJbw | EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2 | jknowak | Jake | 1,689,588,618,806 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c | 1,704,063,540,000 | Will there be at least one on-site AI Safety/Alignment/MechInt hackathon organized in Poland in 2023? | will-there-be-at-least-one-onsite-a | https://manifold.markets/jknowak/will-there-be-at-least-one-onsite-a | {
"NO": 44.793470519606586,
"YES": 1067.833443521638
} | 0.02511 | 0.380431 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,082.495736 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,377,075,649 | 0.03 | 14 | 1,704,377,075,885 | 1,703,656,755,501 | -1 | [
"ai-safety",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | The hackathon has to be:
organized in one of the top 10 cities by population,
open for anyone to join (with potential selection by the organizers),
last more than 5h,
have 5 or more participants.
It can be hybrid but there has to be at least one coworking space shared by 2 or more participants for the purpose of this hackathon. | N/A | EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2 | null |
yPnDJNTBuXQsPj9ObijG | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,701,988,301,911 | 1,702,162,800,000 | Will DOT close higher on December 9 than it closed on December 8? | will-dot-close-higher-on-december-8-ee90cb010671 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-8-ee90cb010671 | {
"NO": 988.1173206464815,
"YES": 69.42805929757772
} | 0.987647 | 0.848886 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 978.178175 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,187,665,062 | 0.99 | 7 | 1,702,187,662,798 | 1,702,161,473,627 | 1,702,187,662,170 | [
"sccsq4",
"economics-default",
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
View the live price
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page
Previous Close: $6.85
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
sZxafg8KyVSGO1zH2vxr | prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2 | XiJinping | Helmsman | 1,662,737,343,535 | 1,663,587,061,869 | Will Joe Biden speak at the Queen's funeral? | will-joe-biden-speak-at-the-queens | https://manifold.markets/XiJinping/will-joe-biden-speak-at-the-queens | {
"NO": 189.00534604091615,
"YES": 233.37365737580654
} | 0.13986 | 0.167202 | 335.51013 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,051.339329 | 0 | true | NO | 1,663,587,061,869 | 0.13986 | 39 | 1,663,546,018,745 | 1,663,546,017,381 | -1 | [
"royal-funeral"
] | Resolves YES if Joe Biden eulogizes Queen Elizabeth. Resolves NO if not. | N/A | null | null |
|
X0OE33m5rRFBvfeOeoy2 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,702,317,923,691 | 1,702,457,100,000 | Will Flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-13 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-db671ea52a46 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-db671ea52a46 | {
"NO": 87.87182417535293,
"YES": 106.5256505249625
} | 0.062133 | 0.074343 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 53 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,502,491,175 | 0.06 | 3 | 1,702,430,175,286 | 1,702,430,175,137 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-13 08:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-13 - 10:45 (UTC)
02:45 (Los Angeles)
05:45 (New York)
11:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
2B2AJ8MZJxR5VDL1Bx9V | 6bkHI0fIFbcuxIO0GkL11anl70G2 | kagan | kagan | 1,697,477,772,781 | 1,707,687,030,216 | Will Taylor Swift attend the Super Bowl? | will-taylor-swift-attend-the-super | https://manifold.markets/kagan/will-taylor-swift-attend-the-super | {
"NO": 17095.602118963405,
"YES": 261.97174079877914
} | 0.994097 | 0.720727 | 1,020 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 17,681.38145 | 0 | true | YES | 1,707,687,030,216 | 0.99 | 60 | 1,707,687,030,926 | 1,707,666,986,203 | 1,707,686,887,306 | [
"kansas-city-chiefs",
"taylor-swift"
] | N/A | 6bkHI0fIFbcuxIO0GkL11anl70G2 | null |
||
ePmqDII454gavXLFU0Qq | LWRrUOgsKFPT0ItXQqYDqqsUVSX2 | NiallWeaver | Niall Weaver | 1,686,339,796,631 | 1,689,904,294,080 | Will a Conservative Party candidate win the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election? | will-a-conservative-party-candidate-9f9893ef5048 | https://manifold.markets/NiallWeaver/will-a-conservative-party-candidate-9f9893ef5048 | {
"NO": 569.7885200446984,
"YES": 6.379023351820071
} | 0.992822 | 0.607615 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,115.030511 | 0 | true | YES | 1,689,904,294,080 | 0.99 | 6 | 1,689,903,743,864 | 1,689,903,743,719 | -1 | [
"politics-default"
] | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65863267
[link preview] | N/A | null | ||
OIybDyPz4NggLcm9zSYc | XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2 | Keepcalmandchill | Keepcalmandchill | 1,682,125,539,819 | 1,697,893,992,562 | Will it be possible to have any ebook turned into a human-like audiobook by 2024? | will-it-be-possible-to-have-any-ebo | https://manifold.markets/Keepcalmandchill/will-it-be-possible-to-have-any-ebo | {
"NO": 1257.8142021383119,
"YES": 441.7850101515866
} | 0.936289 | 0.837706 | 550 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,511.113 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,893,992,562 | 0.94 | 28 | 1,697,901,676,300 | 1,697,822,666,061 | 1,697,901,675,644 | [] | Criteria = an app, website or a program that allows any ebook (format can be restricted) to be added and turned into a highly-realistic human voice audiobook (obviously subjective but basically something you can't tell apart 90% of the time). | N/A | null | ||
CCoWosEup29p91Rc628u | xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2 | Soli | Soli ꩜ | 1,699,255,026,122 | 1,699,297,394,072 | Will Sam Altman chant "Developers, Developers, Developers, ...." on stage at DevDay? 😂 | will-sam-altman-chant-developers-de | https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-sam-altman-chant-developers-de | {
"NO": 8.351423481554889,
"YES": 1361.4289254122548
} | 0.004384 | 0.41785 | 72.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,559.72178 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,297,394,072 | 0 | 14 | 1,699,297,175,659 | 1,699,297,159,118 | 1,699,297,174,934 | [
"devday",
"openai",
"ai",
"sam-altman"
] | [image]Background
I saw this tweet and found it funny so I thought wny not create a market around this. Maybe Sama has some humor and would actually do it.
Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Altman chants developers more than three times in a row in reference to Ballmer's iconic moment. This has to happen on stage during a presentation. | N/A | null | ||
FQLKEhvgDOBptGU2Ls8q | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,706,458,737,145 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,708,405,189,950 | Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on Feb 19, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET | will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-b57720488b8d | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-b57720488b8d | {
"NO": 1.253936109000862,
"YES": 2195.081259256899
} | 0.000583 | 0.505024 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,270.747761 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,448,778,996 | 0 | 19 | 1,710,451,912,076 | 1,708,394,647,863 | 1,708,394,408,682 | [
"twitter",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"tweeter"
] | Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on Feb 19, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET
!!!Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!!
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolves NA if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period
https://twitter.com/elonmusk | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
hGwP6ZjcYy2ARURJJTpP | ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13 | NickAllen | Nick Allen | 1,677,118,366,399 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will US home prices decline by over 10% from all time highs in 2023? | will-us-home-prices-decline-by-over-6857af224997 | https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-us-home-prices-decline-by-over-6857af224997 | {
"NO": 183.46876339360415,
"YES": 3226.8078542895555
} | 0.025411 | 0.314403 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,645.881175 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,005,485,630 | 0.03 | 15 | 1,713,766,001,322 | 1,702,083,508,082 | 1,713,766,000,195 | [
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
All time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 277.528 or lower, this question resolves "Yes". Otherwise "No".
If no reading has resulted in a "Yes" resolution then the question will resolve "No" after the Dec '23 reading is reported around March '24. Betting will close EOY '23. | N/A | ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13 | |
WIDyaT7tJBa8U7kiVUEI | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | DanMan314 | Dan | 1,687,590,151,881 | 1,690,873,140,000 | Will Sergei Shoigu still be the Russian Minister of Defence at the end of July? | will-sergei-shoigu-still-be-the-rus | https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-sergei-shoigu-still-be-the-rus | {
"NO": 21247.155690517644,
"YES": 506.5658981830304
} | 0.988741 | 0.676757 | 2,010 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 48,031.552145 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,904,647,485 | 0.99 | 111 | 1,690,844,765,716 | 1,690,844,764,585 | 1,687,789,080,262 | [
"russia",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | For simplicity, resolves based on Wikipedia.
Prigozhin has threatened the Russian ministry of defense, and Shoigu is at its head. Will he outlast the coup? | N/A | null | null |
|
JtuDcNksw7vlGrr1MmIm | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,697,177,061,396 | 1,697,281,200,000 | Will TO flight 7061 from Toulon to Paris on 2023-10-14 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)? | will-to-flight-7061-from-toulon-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-to-flight-7061-from-toulon-to | {
"NO": 319.793738004855,
"YES": 143.3827842638442
} | 0.81 | 0.656526 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 430.30744 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,300,410,173 | 0.81 | 10 | 1,697,280,676,608 | 1,697,280,676,284 | -1 | [] | !!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4ky8crjc | N/A | null | null |
|
OfimfLpZNuvuP1KjQUbr | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | admissions | lukres | 1,692,354,255,998 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 1,704,063,540,000 | Will Joe Biden confuse one country with another again in 2023? | will-joe-biden-confuse-one-country | https://manifold.markets/admissions/will-joe-biden-confuse-one-country | {
"NO": 156.2435650532438,
"YES": 3036.4338377949907
} | 0.028477 | 0.362915 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,705.804073 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,103,789,415 | 0.03 | 28 | 1,710,207,120,708 | 1,703,902,985,595 | 1,699,720,285,532 | [
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"the-life-of-biden",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Examples from the past:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhnUE5UBufw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mFkSJDAazAw
[link preview] | N/A | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | |
jQAuo4a2cNd0i3QEJq9b | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,682,608,664,476 | 1,682,695,800,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 28th April than it closed on 27th April? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9207780fa21b | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9207780fa21b | {
"NO": 427.1378600430128,
"YES": 36.643247598798055
} | 0.929036 | 0.528993 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 973.335331 | 0 | true | YES | 1,682,696,934,337 | 0.93 | 7 | 1,682,694,324,234 | 1,682,694,324,084 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"ftse-100"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 28th than it did on Thursday 27th?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets] | N/A | null | ||
V59A2mWvE7Rc77FewI0B | j2CeSlh3GtWpiZFcuQMDdJVYGKp1 | hunterbb | Hunter | 1,669,668,522,587 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0A6lRUclGETgh9L3k3155dQ2U16VNw0R9G8VK3Dw=s96-c | 1,670,079,600,000 | Will Ronaldo and/or Messi make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup? | will-ronaldo-andor-messi-make-it-to | https://manifold.markets/hunterbb/will-ronaldo-andor-messi-make-it-to | {
"NO": 679.8089009186871,
"YES": 163.63512551982805
} | 0.927026 | 0.753563 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 436.621694 | 0 | true | YES | 1,670,101,445,193 | 0.927026 | 12 | 1,670,076,449,943 | 1,670,076,449,832 | 1,669,668,689,770 | [
"2022-fifa-world-cup",
"football",
"sports-default"
] | In what is likely their last World Cups, will Christiano Ronaldo (Portugal) and/or Lionel Messi (Argentina) make it to the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup?
Close date updated to 2022-12-03 8:00 am | N/A | null | |
GoQSF22HWawOTVC2nnHi | 3v0nsTlPsch9KcGmyh9OHIgz64k1 | DeadRhino | hi | 1,699,121,958,011 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp767zoItPpimAhYYSJUCosd2tHZKAwnifXffrutAw=s96-c | 1,699,161,908,138 | Will a Proof School team be top 5 BMT power round? | will-a-proof-school-team-be-top-5-b | https://manifold.markets/DeadRhino/will-a-proof-school-team-be-top-5-b | {
"NO": 1784.3120351538548,
"YES": 1.401100228405084
} | 0.999215 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,835.092147 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,161,908,138 | 1 | 11 | 1,699,161,903,691 | 1,699,161,299,337 | 1,699,161,901,828 | [
"competition-math",
"mathematics",
"proofniks"
] | self explanatory, power round is a proof based round, tied for top 5 counts. | N/A | null | null |
PKK8fr77kMOrhyHv6VnL | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,704,615,475,069 | 1,704,668,400,000 | Will the Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks on Jan 7? | will-the-calgary-flames-beat-chicag | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-calgary-flames-beat-chicag | {
"NO": 35.40408496783362,
"YES": 833.5494912774974
} | 0.046514 | 0.534566 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,431.378076 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,668,811,584 | 0.05 | 11 | 1,704,668,811,865 | 1,704,667,206,002 | 1,704,668,691,504 | [
"nhl",
"hockey",
"chicago-blackhawks",
"sports-default",
"calgary-flames"
] | This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.
NHL Week 14 Jan 8 (Live Action Sports) | Bruins vs Avalanche (Prediction Market) @8pm CST | Ottawa vs Boston (PWHL)
Calgary Flames vs Chicago Blackhawks @2pm CST
Game start at 2:00pm CST.
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Calgary Flames win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image] | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
Y5z4acjNAXfXgms7AuCv | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,705,119,687,820 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,705,881,471,543 | Will Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market largely remain in [80%,93%] until the end of June 2024 | will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-39158a04715f | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-39158a04715f | {
"NO": 147.5837965789724,
"YES": 23035.87265637683
} | 0.000825 | 0.114114 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 32,200.857994 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,881,471,543 | 0 | 16 | 1,710,456,576,908 | 1,705,881,464,278 | 1,705,866,721,655 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"the-life-of-biden"
] | Resolves to No if the Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market's price stayed outside of [80%,93%] for 1 consecutive hour.
Resolves Yes otherwise
(This setup is there to prevent very short period snapping from affecting resolution)
Referenced Market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Note:
-Resolution base on the displayed rounded probability
-Base on ET time zone
[markets] | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
KwIpF7nmRS6iYRgWCONh | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,705,377,544,715 | 1,705,456,800,000 | ($250M Subsidy) Will the Edmonton Oilers beat Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan 16? (Prediction Market) | 250m-subsidy-will-the-edmonton-oile-3846657ef426 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/250m-subsidy-will-the-edmonton-oile-3846657ef426 | {
"NO": 592.9002452446438,
"YES": 464.3642715852072
} | 0.604816 | 0.545181 | 520.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 222.160178 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,466,937,971 | 0.6 | 12 | 1,705,466,938,217 | 1,705,456,311,100 | 1,705,466,929,566 | [
"hockey",
"sports-default",
"toronto-maple-leafs",
"edmonton-oilers",
"nhl"
] | This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 8:00pm CST and sit back.
Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs @8pm CST
Game start at 8:00pm CST.
This market closes at 8:00pm CST
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Edmonton Oilers win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image] | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
wTV909MSstmVvqDIzX9y | iBtCo24GprQfGefHlgUflkshGTj1 | stone | Mr Stone | 1,658,092,476,831 | 1,658,699,940,000 | Is there a bug in MM when typing answers using these characters (excluding quotes):
"M. "
In a reaction? | is-there-a-bug-in-mm-when-typing-an | https://manifold.markets/stone/is-there-a-bug-in-mm-when-typing-an | {
"NO": 184.25556848950637,
"YES": 54.27244387769794
} | 0.772469 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 245.412228 | 0 | true | YES | 1,658,959,165,817 | 0.772469 | 10 | 1,658,959,156,018 | 1,658,689,504,415 | 1,658,959,153,632 | [] | I responded to a comment recently and when I typed a letter, followed by a dot and a space, it changed into the @ sign and the username. | N/A | null | null |
|
3mkeVbY8hkymHP1XPibI | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,708,424,710,902 | 1,708,529,700,000 | Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-21 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3454ae5ff3d4 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3454ae5ff3d4 | {
"NO": 86.49856942094547,
"YES": 124.69162648020925
} | 0.07209 | 0.100715 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 61.857781 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,551,959,016 | 0.07 | 4 | 1,708,551,959,248 | 1,708,528,530,768 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-21 15:35 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 17:35 (UTC)
09:35 (Los Angeles)
12:35 (New York)
18:35 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
IrMAjjfxDEKzYBjRvOtq | JWN73K73iAcj3tgohgFVZODJHg83 | Mako284 | M | 1,690,935,393,593 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMako284%2F99R8XF6hF4.38?alt=media&token=16ed0769-3ed0-4259-ba3c-67340a180500 | 1,692,187,335,814 | Will Australia win the FIFA Women's World Cup in 2023? | will-australia-win-the-fifa-womens | https://manifold.markets/Mako284/will-australia-win-the-fifa-womens | {
"NO": 608.0233183563219,
"YES": 8590.732116139561
} | 0.015614 | 0.183084 | 1,050 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,340.232727 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,187,335,814 | 0.02 | 56 | 1,692,187,292,077 | 1,692,187,291,954 | 1,692,187,168,801 | [
"sports-default"
] | Yes/No. Will the Australian Women's soccer team (known as the 'Matildas') win the FIFA Women's World Cup Australia & New Zealand 2023? | N/A | null | null |
HddW6qGbNX8BuHgj7dmz | Oj5UFfPFqeRSZ4A5yBwyTdEfZ4Z2 | edward57fe | edward | 1,706,289,576,803 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf_cFkqD_AUbI8hpm3qhzMcPn9naEEZHrb2n-euykF9fzs=s96-c | 1,706,652,000,000 | Will Glenn Greenwald reschedule/cancel the new rescheduled debate planned on Tuesday, Jan 30th? | will-glenn-greenwald-reschedulecanc | https://manifold.markets/edward57fe/will-glenn-greenwald-reschedulecanc | {
"NO": 193.758002139444,
"YES": 1935.9761143300059
} | 0.03483 | 0.265013 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,827.147145 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,659,565,019 | 0.03 | 21 | 1,710,218,344,249 | 1,706,649,470,183 | -1 | [
"destinygg"
] | The Destiny vs Glenn Greenwald debate has been rescheduled to Tuesday, January 30th.
Will Glenwald cancel? | N/A | Oj5UFfPFqeRSZ4A5yBwyTdEfZ4Z2 | |
jcz4fFDqGSAIIn9aAfch | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,705,125,785,556 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,705,881,446,099 | Will Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market largely remain in [80%,93%] until the end of Feb 2024 | will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-472dbf572319 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-472dbf572319 | {
"NO": 40.611689644301805,
"YES": 22464.81661476624
} | 0.000479 | 0.209435 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 31,231.514569 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,881,446,099 | 0 | 12 | 1,710,456,593,773 | 1,705,881,395,460 | 1,705,879,329,175 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"the-life-of-biden"
] | Resolves to No if the Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market's price stayed outside of [80%,93%] for 1 consecutive hour.
Resolves Yes otherwise
(This setup is there to prevent very short period snapping from affecting resolution)
Referenced Market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Note:
-Resolution base on the displayed rounded probability
-Base on ET time zone
| N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
C2317pvvCPXEjVNkLxza | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | asmith | Andrew Smith | 1,703,564,573,773 | 1,711,038,943,357 | Will Dune: Part Two make over 500 million dollars at the worldwide box office? | will-dune-part-two-make-over-500-mi | https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-500-mi | {
"NO": 23562.543653695004,
"YES": 138.25763104554972
} | 0.99851 | 0.797286 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,227.782059 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,038,943,357 | 1 | 20 | 1,711,038,943,357 | 1,711,038,934,309 | 1,711,037,217,674 | [
"cinema",
"boxoffice",
"movies",
"dune"
] | Re-releases don't count
See also for 600 million:
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-600-mi | N/A | Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1 | ||
eZ5DNOLOXlKu3X5YIUOp | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,083,096,916 | 1,704,063,600,000 | Will BNB close higher on December 31 than it closed on December 30? | will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-3-07b085a78a69 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-3-07b085a78a69 | {
"NO": 116.72487108549726,
"YES": 447.37719362940925
} | 0.249969 | 0.560897 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 424.587324 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,073,368,360 | 0.25 | 11 | 1,704,073,368,732 | 1,704,063,308,532 | 1,704,073,364,303 | [
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
u5HTnm4BLjapoLmNHh4d | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,675,877,371,473 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,676,480,520,000 | Will Vaush's video on AI Seinfeld get 80k views by Feb 15th? | will-vaushs-video-on-ai-seinfeld-ge | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-on-ai-seinfeld-ge | {
"NO": 3456.215857205049,
"YES": 254.981641547076
} | 0.988638 | 0.865222 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,758.93455 | 0 | true | YES | 1,676,488,977,594 | 0.99 | 24 | 1,710,218,622,215 | 1,676,479,413,157 | 1,676,471,731,236 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-f13VOKuiU&ab_channel=TheVaushPit | N/A | null | |
8HgTq2kgRuJxkS1TY0BM | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,040,777,897 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,678,640,921,515 | Will Vaush's video "Ben Shapiro & Candace Owens Cry About Trans Chocolate" reach 110k views or more by 3/12 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-ben-shapiro-canda | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-ben-shapiro-canda | {
"NO": 11781.666666666668,
"YES": 46.52951993391616
} | 0.999324 | 0.853854 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,102 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,640,921,515 | 1 | 6 | 1,710,218,521,053 | 1,678,640,917,682 | 1,678,621,353,829 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/XlZrk_-R7yc
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
oX9HAIiqANiGn0qjq1HK | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,672,917,287,796 | 1,681,007,445,487 | Will a US Senator visit Taiwan in 2023? | will-a-us-senator-visit-taiwan-in-2 | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-us-senator-visit-taiwan-in-2 | {
"NO": 2049.970663799966,
"YES": 133.69582885088658
} | 0.97 | 0.678325 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,363.285388 | 0 | true | YES | 1,681,007,445,487 | 0.97 | 18 | 1,681,008,013,127 | 1,681,007,351,841 | 1,681,008,006,330 | [
"118th-congress",
"china"
] | Related:
[markets] | N/A | null | null |
|
omoUbWunX6eKcMjAYV3t | ZB5wm6TsZbfYNWOoAWIjDpzjEz72 | Mira_ | Mira | 1,689,115,871,327 | 1,700,585,717,264 | Will Anthropic's Claude 2 support 200k context sizes by end of 2023? | will-anthropics-claude-2-support-20 | https://manifold.markets/Mira_/will-anthropics-claude-2-support-20 | {
"NO": 2940.4217571058293,
"YES": 60.583640361681546
} | 0.984412 | 0.565443 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,893.218286 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,585,717,264 | 0.98 | 18 | 1,700,585,709,363 | 1,700,585,705,715 | 1,700,585,707,835 | [
"anthropic"
] | Resolves YES as soon as Claude 2 supports 200k context sizes or higher, NO if Claude is not updated with a larger context size in 2023, and PROB to the highest progress along the linear interpolation from 100k to 200k in 2023 if it's updated to some middle context.
An update to 160k would resolve 60%. k = 1000 unless somebody provides convincing evidence they're using a binary scaled multiplier i.e k = 1024.
The improvement must be announced by Anthropic and available to anyone not affiliated with Anthropic.
Model-Card-Claude-2.pdf (anthropic.com)
[image] | N/A | null | null |
|
8JekNrUppeZFZpoQbgym | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,676,924,628,379 | 1,696,817,691,083 | Will California ban hidden fees in 2023? | will-california-ban-hidden-fees-in | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-california-ban-hidden-fees-in | {
"NO": 9094.713375898955,
"YES": 33.685798384168265
} | 0.997418 | 0.588641 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,695.584357 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,817,691,083 | 1 | 19 | 1,696,818,153,272 | 1,696,817,613,472 | 1,696,818,152,301 | [
"us-politics"
] | https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-senator-dodd-senator-skinner-introduce-bill-prohibiting
California Attorney General Rob Bonta today, with Senator Bill Dodd and Senator Nancy Skinner, introduced Senate Bill 478 (SB 478), landmark legislation seeking to prohibit in California the practice of hiding mandatory fees. The use of hidden fees and junk fees is a deceptive advertising practice in which a seller uses an artificially low headline price to attract a customer before revealing additional charges later in the buying process. Sellers often hide these additional, mandatory charges by using small type, vague descriptions or misleading wording such as “service fees,” by bundling them with legitimate charges like taxes, or revealing them clearly only after the consumer has invested time in the transaction. The legislation — the first bill of its type across the state — would prohibit advertising a price for a good or service that does not include all required charges other than taxes and fees imposed by a government.
Resolves YES if such a ban is passed into law in 2023 (regardless of when it goes into effect). | N/A | null | ||
ubaYxhYtRbwEoEeGi1mk | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,705,048,785,448 | 1,707,982,458,988 | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 15th February show positive growth? | will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-5cb61d5d7909 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-5cb61d5d7909 | {
"NO": 27.63785829456277,
"YES": 8541.389959570219
} | 0.004016 | 0.554811 | 810 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,332.352828 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,982,458,988 | 0 | 42 | 1,710,222,638,761 | 1,707,981,882,755 | 1,707,982,519,723 | [
"economics-default",
"business",
"uk-politics",
"uk",
"gdp",
"uk-economic-data"
] | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 15th February.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (December in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the
@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation
@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202 | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
sZv8qL4ojRaeEC6ZTK9j | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,710,499,631 | 1,701,792,000,000 | Will CAC 40 close higher december 5th than the close of december 4th? (Daily Market) | will-cac-40-close-higher-december-5 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-december-5 | {
"NO": 623.8779645923844,
"YES": 139.1647940028557
} | 0.92 | 0.719514 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 639.280347 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,798,242,542 | 0.92 | 11 | 1,701,798,239,369 | 1,701,790,610,298 | 1,701,798,238,429 | [
"sccsq4",
"finance",
"stocks"
] | CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
b4K5yIyPozUzh2ZFdc7b | qznjQbyd1FfTyrkOuOMduFN4g4p1 | AnnaliseNorling | Annalise Norling | 1,665,262,124,243 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmk2fy_UFPQlvMqSEAocrxfwVsg-MfG4aXEAAGIk=s96-c | 1,665,266,267,937 | Will we send special forces to Taiwan (and acknowledge that we have done so - either inadvertently or not) at some point before the end of 2023? | will-we-send-special-forces-to-taiw | https://manifold.markets/AnnaliseNorling/will-we-send-special-forces-to-taiw | {
"NO": 1209.5795553894966,
"YES": 22.318059243359382
} | 0.983474 | 0.523358 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,060.420445 | 0 | true | YES | 1,665,266,267,937 | 0.622188 | 4 | 1,665,267,116,988 | 1,665,266,261,107 | 1,665,267,112,082 | [
"politics-default"
] | This question resolves YES if there is an acknowledgement by the US government or very strong proof otherwise (such as video evidence, whistleblower evidence, etc). | N/A | null | null |
qZEEfOEZ2npH08N8FTVp | QFNGzdi9jhVEmDu7sTfBc1OYE6V2 | StuartF | Stuart F. | 1,667,662,561,272 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpSRG0jCyDuf3kaI5eANHjZi7p_3iZUvs1jdCJZegY=s96-c | 1,667,952,000,000 | Will Abigail Spanberger win election in the new VA-7 district? | will-abigail-spanberger-win-electio | https://manifold.markets/StuartF/will-abigail-spanberger-win-electio | {
"NO": 47.72302938895218,
"YES": 363.0000000000003
} | 0.02473 | 0.161689 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 273 | 0 | true | YES | 1,667,988,909,923 | 0.02473 | 3 | 1,667,948,403,311 | 1,667,948,403,162 | 1,667,662,688,375 | [
"us-politics"
] | https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia%27s_7th_Congressional_District_election,_2022 | N/A | null | |
l2l54CrW0YfdY1IzRZD2 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,691,700,528,398 | 1,692,385,200,000 | Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on August 18th than it closed on August 17th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1950575b58c | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1950575b58c | {
"NO": 140.28675899856384,
"YES": 271.50281155681773
} | 0.249481 | 0.391479 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 409.784028 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,389,952,841 | 0.25 | 8 | 1,692,389,950,674 | 1,692,385,154,112 | 1,692,389,948,627 | [
"stocks",
"finance",
"economics-default",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET. Predictions close at 3pm ET.
PREVIOUS CLOSE:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
WmSiZ3qReJapbYz0JO40 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,675,746,234,021 | 1,695,016,557,374 | Will Philip Lowe be reappointed to another term as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia? | will-philip-lowe-be-reappointed-to | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-philip-lowe-be-reappointed-to | {
"NO": 103.95484224917345,
"YES": 9609.322668209825
} | 0.002483 | 0.187073 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,566.022898 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,016,557,374 | 0 | 19 | 1,694,999,108,853 | 1,694,995,241,422 | 1,694,999,107,281 | [
"politics-default",
"economics-default",
"australia",
"australian-politics",
"central-banks"
] | Philip Lowe's current term as Governor of Australia's central bank, the RBA, is set to end on 17th September, 2023. If he is reappointed to another term as Governor by the Treasurer then this market will resolve to YES.
If he is not reappointed to another term as Governor, this market will resolve to NO. | N/A | null | ||
aG51KE53FfZyI1Pk1l7i | tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2 | MaybeNotDepends | MaybeNotDepends | 1,672,621,875,306 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will the Philly Socialists vote to disband and join the Communist Party in 2023? | will-the-philly-socialists-vote-to | https://manifold.markets/MaybeNotDepends/will-the-philly-socialists-vote-to | {
"NO": 105.28447775542912,
"YES": 954.4767019835043
} | 0.042398 | 0.286421 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,313.895274 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,090,213,488 | 0.04 | 15 | 1,704,090,213,792 | 1,704,083,106,835 | 1,684,756,430,457 | [
"politics-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"leftism"
] | Currently the Philly Socialists are at a crossroads and considering the organization's future. One proposal, from a founder of the organization, is that the organization should fold and join the US Communist Party.
For this to resolve "Yes", there would have to be one or more official proposals that passes by Dec 31, 2023 (probably at a General Assembly or Constitutional Convention) that 1) disband the organization and 2) explicitly recommend that the members join the Communist Party (and do so in preference to any other organization). | N/A | tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2 | |
9msENhEa1fEQa1c4Hxcs | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,008,390,767 | 1,703,098,800,000 | [Daily] Will AMZN close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19? | daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec-ecbcea23ccc4 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec-ecbcea23ccc4 | {
"NO": 616.311966576941,
"YES": 274.44955430658143
} | 0.888992 | 0.781 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 987.656747 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,106,750,895 | 0.89 | 17 | 1,703,106,745,546 | 1,703,098,094,105 | 1,703,106,744,851 | [
"hawsbollah",
"finance",
"stocks",
"economics-default",
"sccsq4"
] | This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
7OLo6GcPAC4YDwUXXbgs | 3xIcmleIVjRwkvB2V4gMTrqaj1S2 | Nazgul4777 | Nazgûl4777 | 1,684,358,867,117 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4TFtOxUTWFlMVhNxXwagkznPWyitdotrEgoD_N=s96-c | 1,684,890,000,000 | Will The Dallas Stars beat the Vegas Golden Knights in the Semi-Finals | will-the-dallas-stars-beat-the-vega | https://manifold.markets/Nazgul4777/will-the-dallas-stars-beat-the-vega | {
"NO": 80.67154369268502,
"YES": 251.25360374287462
} | 0.168717 | 0.387301 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 143.858021 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,154,882,156 | 0.17 | 6 | 1,702,154,725,880 | 1,684,874,016,643 | 1,702,154,724,345 | [] | Will the Las Vegas Golden Knights beat the Dallas Stars in the Semi-Finals | N/A | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | |
vlwP5T944ioQTP4nGjKM | M54E1xVsLRUFijcSuz43n2EASBb2 | BrunoNeira | Bruno Neira | 1,684,286,448,030 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJx6tuhjOYztbS89Zmk80fFDnLQdCue1sDmJYcTM=s96-c | 1,697,728,952,255 | Will aisafety.world list at least 165 items by the end of 2023? | will-aisafetyworld-list-at-least-16 | https://manifold.markets/BrunoNeira/will-aisafetyworld-list-at-least-16 | {
"NO": 4569.193050078566,
"YES": 128.00106705621008
} | 0.995752 | 0.867831 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,496.019712 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,728,952,255 | 1 | 13 | 1,697,714,571,370 | 1,697,714,571,034 | 1,697,713,258,198 | [
"ai-safety",
"effective-altruism",
"technology-default"
] | https://aisafety.world/ is a website that lists prominent AI safety resources, organazations, etc. There are currently 152 items listed in the following categories:
Media: 14
Resources: 11
Blogs: 16
Training and education: 27
Career Support: 4
Research Support: 12
Funding: 16
Conceptual Research: 15
Applied Research: 17
Strategy and Governance Research: 20
I am not counting items such as "unlabeled crater" and anything under the "Suggest improvements to this page" category.
Will https://aisafety.world/ list at least 165 items by the end of 2023? | N/A | null | |
ZzkPR3PF9oEZlX1rsdnW | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,706,798,858,450 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,715,543,946,774 | Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in May 2024? | will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-1225f5349f55 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-1225f5349f55 | {
"NO": 1544.4364934114903,
"YES": 21.820063429550572
} | 0.99 | 0.583106 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,486.454781 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,543,946,774 | 0.99 | 12 | 1,715,543,946,774 | 1,715,543,942,499 | 1,715,497,064,946 | [
"us-politics",
"118th-congress"
] | Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan
https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed
Resolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in May 2024
| N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
KR1vlorx1HZurZcjd0LZ | H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1 | MP | MP | 1,673,454,899,448 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf | 1,673,469,526,978 | Will Matt Levine dunk on the next issue of Money Stuff on Matt Yglesias? | will-matt-levine-dunk-on-the-next-i | https://manifold.markets/MP/will-matt-levine-dunk-on-the-next-i | {
"NO": 153.54673472060074,
"YES": 2195.0786803900037
} | 0.058572 | 0.470742 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,762.170826 | 0 | true | NO | 1,673,469,526,978 | 0.06 | 7 | 1,673,467,562,666 | 1,673,467,562,556 | 1,673,467,173,649 | [
"2023-matt-yglesias-predictions"
] | Apparently, Matt Yglesias doesn't know what a basis point it
[image]And Matt Levine dunked on Twitter
https://twitter.com/buccocapital/status/1613192062362390528
If the next issue of Money Stuff mentions Yglesias with a decidated session, this market solves to YES. | N/A | null | null |
3PWU7bLxKWlh71Si0yEz | oyGkV0RewCY5o6UiSUe72S6LxR32 | DavidGreenberg | Tape Dave | 1,697,621,625,539 | 1,697,653,991,379 | Will Jim Jordan’s good discussion with his caucus get him elected Speaker on the second vote? | will-jim-jordan-be-elected-speaker | https://manifold.markets/DavidGreenberg/will-jim-jordan-be-elected-speaker | {
"NO": 95.49841385608912,
"YES": 1671.9112243724721
} | 0.010307 | 0.154209 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,141.034172 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,653,991,379 | 0.01 | 7 | 1,710,207,182,334 | 1,697,646,425,294 | -1 | [
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"magaland",
"118th-congress",
"us-congress",
"speaker-of-the-house-election"
] | From CBS News (in case you've Ben under a rock): GOP Rep. Jim Jordan failed to secure the support needed to become House speaker in the first round of voting on Tuesday, leaving the lower chamber without a leader for at least another day as he tries to cobble together enough support to win the gavel.
Jordan lost the support of 20 of his fellow Republicans in Tuesday's election, winning just 200 votes and falling short of the 217 needed to prevail. Democrats nominated Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who received 212 votes.
Jordan told reporters at the Capitol that the next vote would take place Wednesday morning around 11 a.m. and said he had "good discussions" with his Republican colleagues. | N/A | null | null |
|
peuhLN1JZFZZzD6OZT5R | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | NoitUK | NoitUK | 1,691,051,573,528 | 1,705,997,940,097 | Will UK life expectancy increase in the next ONS report? | will-uk-life-expectancy-increase-in | https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/will-uk-life-expectancy-increase-in | {
"NO": 113.8573243169045,
"YES": 748.3279009828684
} | 0.13 | 0.495484 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 904.976254 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,997,940,097 | 0.13 | 15 | 1,710,222,847,232 | 1,705,997,916,510 | 1,705,998,032,516 | [
"uk",
"population",
"human-population"
] | Resolves YES if the Life Expectancy at Birth figure for 2021-2022 is higher for both males and females than it was for the 2019-2020 dataset. If Life Expectancy at Birth either drops or is static (to a single decimal place in years of age) for either gender, this will resolve NO.
If the latest stats are not published by year end I will delay closure until they are available.
Data is as per the ONS - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2018to2020
[link preview] | N/A | VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1 | null |
|
n5QixK0Qt4CYgRaLPpUp | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | VivaLaPanda | VivaLaPanda | 1,672,347,924,919 | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will any Bay Area city have a power outage lasting more than 24 hours as a result of fire risk in 2023 | will-any-bay-area-city-have-a-power | https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-any-bay-area-city-have-a-power | {
"NO": 172.89843354170824,
"YES": 900.8748000743675
} | 0.070502 | 0.283261 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 861.306838 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,003,481,102 | 0.07 | 16 | 1,705,003,481,399 | 1,703,325,206,087 | 1,698,060,582,291 | [
"california",
"ancient-markets",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Bay Area cities as defined by: https://abag.ca.gov/about-abag/what-we-do/our-members | N/A | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | ||
k51NmHUjzWY8UOv1BUtY | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | Gabrielle | Gabrielle | 1,693,936,254,427 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 1,693,967,461,078 | Will United Airlines flights be running on time by midnight tonight? | short-fuse-m1000-subsidy-will-unite | https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/short-fuse-m1000-subsidy-will-unite | {
"NO": 1795.376203441472,
"YES": 1093.9281532016905
} | 0.783774 | 0.688338 | 1,310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 722.956347 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,967,461,078 | 0.78 | 15 | 1,693,964,236,121 | 1,693,964,235,983 | -1 | [
"airline-industry"
] | September 5, 2023: United Airlines has reportedly delayed all flights across the USA and cancelled some because of an "equipment outage." Will this outage be resolved by tonight?
Specifically, will resolve YES if a specific flight on United, scheduled to take off around midnight Central time, is no more than an hour delayed, otherwise resolves NO. If it is delayed for a reason that is clearly unrelated to the outage, such as weather delays or a medical emergency, resolves based on reporting of United Airlines flights nationwide. | N/A | null | null |
YwkDvwPfZD0d5cppFupe | kIYHsNw5PMd6crIFNtKL4NHNbcI3 | blake | blake | 1,676,649,824,780 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6hByTvM_YDlBsJS1-j7qRPrmfg846rJWnlEeoAcg=s96-c | 1,683,003,540,000 | Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win World Chess Championship? | will-ian-nepomniachtchi-win-world-c | https://manifold.markets/blake/will-ian-nepomniachtchi-win-world-c | {
"NO": 59.020817254202484,
"YES": 17559.051672203794
} | 0.001169 | 0.258212 | 910 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 34,669.890227 | 0 | true | NO | 1,683,318,257,304 | 0 | 46 | 1,683,318,255,376 | 1,682,975,839,478 | 1,683,318,253,043 | [] | YES = Nepo Wins
NO = Liren Wins
N/A = Magnus Carlsen shows up and plays anyways and Wins
For reference:
Nepo: Candidates Winner, ELO 2793, 32 Years Old, Russian team
Liren: Candidates Runner Up, ELO 2788, 30 Years Old, Chinese team
The tournament is in Kazakhstan from April 7th to May 1st. 14 games. Standard rules. Followed by a series of rapid games until the tie is broken | N/A | null | null |
Lnijqwwf3ISBu0iWkNTi | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,624,052,397 | 1,704,670,200,000 | Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-7f16ca51754b | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-7f16ca51754b | {
"NO": 72.40792859720976,
"YES": 45.57910774806435
} | 0.125706 | 0.082994 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 25.834485 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,822,994,856 | 0.13 | 3 | 1,704,822,995,036 | 1,704,638,522,469 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-07 23:30 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 01:30 (UTC)
17:30 (Los Angeles)
20:30 (New York)
02:30 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 07:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
jjq4hzKTNtXzdFrtqsXm | APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2 | parhizj | JRP | 1,697,990,683,470 | 1,698,796,800,000 | Will Vanuatu record winds (METAR) of at least 90 kt in October 2023? | will-vanuatu-record-winds-metar-of | https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-vanuatu-record-winds-metar-of | {
"NO": 86.81076998153326,
"YES": 563.3478091365495
} | 0.051269 | 0.259636 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 925.041051 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,813,331,840 | 0.05 | 9 | 1,698,819,539,044 | 1,698,588,026,913 | 1,698,819,537,613 | [
"202324-south-pacific-cyclone-season",
"extreme-weather"
] | Will Vanuatu record winds (METAR) from TC Lola of at least 90 kt in October 2023?
This question will reference observations reported through METAR only.
Any other observations will not be considered to contribute to the resolution of the question.
TC Lola is forecast to impact Vanuatu soon (before the end of October), per Fiji's Meteorological Service http://www.met.gov.fj/index.php?page=threadmap:
[image]JTWC's warning advisory shows higher winds:
[image]You can see general information about the METAR here:
http://www.vmgd.gov.vu/vmgd/index.php/forecast-division/aviation-forecast/metar
Resolution criteria, methodology, timing:
This question will reference observations reported through METAR only.
Any other observations will not be considered to contribute to the resolution of the question.
I must be able to observe (from the METAR list below) a wind speed of 90 kt or higher from any one of these METAR stations after October 22, 2023 00Z and before November 1, 2023, 00Z for this to resolve YES.
METAR list: NVSC NVSG NVSL NVSP NVSS NVVA NVVV NVVW
Note:
This question will resolve ahead of resolution time only if Lola dissipates per the Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi).
I'll be using metar-go (https://github.com/esperlu/metar) which pulls data from aviationweather.gov:
go run metar.go -n 70 -m NVSC NVSG NVSL NVSP NVSS NVVA NVVV NVVW
and check for wind speeds at or above 90 kt.
I'll try checking this a few times a day up until resolution time.
Notes on metar-go and METAR stations in Vanuatu:
From metar-go, these are names of the METAR stations belonging to Vanuatu (the first four characters),
metar-go -la VU:
Vanuatu (OC)
NVSC SLH VU Sola Airport (Sola)
NVSG LOD VU Longana Airport (Longana)
NVSL LPM VU Lamap Airport (Lamap)
NVSP NUS VU Norsup Airport (Norsup)
NVSS SON VU Santo Pekoa International Airport (Luganville)
NVVA AUY VU Aneityum Airport (Anatom Island)
NVVV VLI VU Bauerfield International Airport (Port Vila)
NVVW TAH VU Tanna Airport
As far as I can tell NVSL and NVSP (Lamap and Norsup) have not been operational for some time (referencing the METAR database from ogimet.com), but I will include them since it is in the list.
I'll be referencing metar-go since it uses aviation-weather.gov which has the METAR history, but you can also see the latest ones here http://www.vmgd.gov.vu/vmgd/index.php/forecast-division/aviation-forecast/metar | N/A | null | null |
|
aWxIpzDulg27wa6yxeYx | glJbzrDZcjYcKTyeqKJJtWmSIJb2 | nuancedmormon | Nuanced Mormon | 1,672,360,306,313 | 1,685,678,340,000 | Will the LDS Church (Mormons) get a new prophet (president of the church) before June 2023? | will-the-lds-church-mormons-get-a-n | https://manifold.markets/nuancedmormon/will-the-lds-church-mormons-get-a-n | {
"NO": 419.9618874571284,
"YES": 3185.0993296312085
} | 0.016453 | 0.112585 | 570 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,469.193232 | 0 | true | NO | 1,686,596,185,121 | 0.02 | 29 | 1,685,723,251,019 | 1,685,670,557,235 | 1,685,723,249,053 | [
"us-politics",
"mormonism"
] | The current prophet and president of the church is Russell M Nelson, at age 98.
Resolve to Yes if the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints get a new prophet (president of the church) before June 2023 | N/A | null | ||
Q640BwGtkx1IB3NJVXZW | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | jks | JKS | 1,694,457,221,433 | 1,694,931,718,233 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will UTEP defeat Arizona? | -2023-ncaaf-will-utep-defeat-arizon | https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utep-defeat-arizon | {
"NO": 46.58173750727292,
"YES": 7274.795666884849
} | 0.001845 | 0.224007 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,250.098394 | 0 | true | NO | 1,694,931,718,233 | 0 | 8 | 1,694,931,669,054 | 1,694,931,668,755 | 1,694,926,409,316 | [
"sports-default",
"college-football",
"university-of-texas-at-el-paso",
"university-of-arizona",
"football",
"pac12"
] | Kickoff: September 16, 2023 - 8:00 PM MST
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Pac-12 Week 3 games: | N/A | null | null |
|
jnuPTyTtpW1E6hQuH8qa | O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72 | AjayChabra | Ajay | 1,701,550,635,911 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c | 1,701,653,540,208 | NFL Week 13 - 12/3/23 - SF 49ers @ PHI Eagles - Will PHI Eagles WR A.J. Brown lead the game in receiving yards? | nfl-week-13-12323-sf-49ers-phi-eagl | https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-13-12323-sf-49ers-phi-eagl | {
"NO": 32.79691672222773,
"YES": 771.4148064286671
} | 0.017186 | 0.291427 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,041.092803 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,653,540,208 | 0.02 | 6 | 1,710,206,774,826 | 1,701,649,835,080 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"fantasy-football-nfl",
"nflprops",
"san-francisco-49ers"
] | Week 13 - Sunday 4:25 p.m. - 12/3/23 - San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles.
Will PHI Eagles WR A.J. Brown lead the game (both teams) in receiving yards?
He has done so in 7/11 games this season.
notes: If Brown doesn't play, this market will N/A. A tie for lead will result in NO. | N/A | null | |
4L7ssEonI0cx6UBBqRTb | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,700,001,098,817 | 1,704,049,243,407 | Will 'Napoleon' (2023) gross more than $90 million domestically by the end of 2023? | will-napoleon-2023-gross-more-than | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-napoleon-2023-gross-more-than | {
"NO": 124.05649781142199,
"YES": 5347.028061867812
} | 0.009033 | 0.282065 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,080.052449 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,049,243,407 | 0.01 | 24 | 1,704,049,244,403 | 1,704,049,234,909 | 1,704,049,218,090 | [
"entertainment",
"movies",
"television-film",
"boxoffice",
"hollywood",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"history"
] | I will resolve this market using the Box Office Mojo page for "Napoleon" (2023): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. Specifically, the "Domestic" number listed under "All Releases". [1]
If this listed gross passes $90 million before January 1st 2024, the market resolves "YES". If the listed gross on January 1st 2024 is less than $90,000,000, I will resolve the market "NO". In either case, I may wait for a few days to ensure that the grosses are official (and not just estimates).
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one). Please let me know if any aspects of the resolution are unclear.
[1] For an example of which number I'll cite, as of the date of this writing, the comparable domestic total for Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) is "$100,916,094".
[image] | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
NFDBPA210QpcTJOSqBxk | SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93 | Sailfish | Sailfish | 1,677,894,269,992 | 1,679,541,939,674 | Will Relativity Space's Terran 1 rocket launch before April? | will-relativity-spaces-terran-1-roc-fdd9a4fbd820 | https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-relativity-spaces-terran-1-roc-fdd9a4fbd820 | {
"NO": 925.9761976519078,
"YES": 104.35782737511173
} | 0.92 | 0.56447 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,009.335169 | 0 | true | YES | 1,679,541,939,674 | 0.92 | 13 | 1,679,541,922,946 | 1,679,541,922,770 | 1,679,230,636,839 | [
"space",
"relativity-space"
] | For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch.
The launch attempt on 8 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
The launch attempt on 11 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
| N/A | null | ||
fJaFCfF9MhyQxizNJEHX | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,698,878,763,363 | 1,699,298,100,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on November 6th than it closed on November 3rd? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-25bd76d4e6e5 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-25bd76d4e6e5 | {
"NO": 108.08630917765934,
"YES": 47.20823142484922
} | 0.76 | 0.580376 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 250.212374 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,306,798,200 | 0.76 | 10 | 1,699,306,790,255 | 1,699,296,167,080 | 1,699,306,789,549 | [
"finance",
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | VIX closes in a variable way and between 3pm to 315pm ET (700-715 UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (615pm UTC)
RELATED VIX MARKETS
Previous Close :
[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
| N/A | null | null |
|
PNjqRUqV3GgZ2ZME0cod | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,033,539,932 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,677,588,357,844 | Will Destiny's video "Destiny Gets Into Extremely Good Faith Debate And It's On The Twitter Files" reach 80k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.? | will-destinys-video-destiny-gets-in | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-destiny-gets-in | {
"NO": 11407.730076259446,
"YES": 26.680026790289048
} | 0.999019 | 0.704366 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13,332.23255 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,588,357,844 | 1 | 10 | 1,710,218,557,366 | 1,677,588,349,449 | 1,677,584,858,451 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/og7lxGahYQo
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
tYIOYR94lBOBy2nE495y | 4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2 | GustavoMafra | Gustavo Mafra | 1,679,632,615,044 | 1,704,077,940,000 | Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user in 2023? | will-any-llm-be-able-to-consistentl | https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-any-llm-be-able-to-consistentl | {
"NO": 347.375695889767,
"YES": 2613.0145593999405
} | 0.07 | 0.361505 | 790 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,581.852655 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,136,201,713 | 0.07 | 42 | 1,704,136,202,204 | 1,704,073,397,298 | 1,704,136,164,910 | [
"ai",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"llms",
"technical-ai-timelines"
] | I have seen multiple reports of ChatGPT playing Akinator pretty well, but as the genie, which for humans is pretty impressive
The other way around (playing as the "user") is less impressive for humans - we all can think of someone and answer simple questions about them. But I haven't been able to make ChatGPT play it correctly. It cannot seem to be capable of thinking about someone without revealing who that someone is. What it ends up doing is answering questions in a way that there is no person or character that satisfies all criteria, and when questioned about who ChatGPT is thinking about, it answers someone slightly matching the answers but not satisfying some of them
So, will ChatGPT with GPT-4 or any other LLM be able to consistently play Akinator as the user in 2023, which could mean it is capable of inner thought?
If anyone wants to try it, here is a prompt that starts the game quickly with ChatGPT:
> Let's play Akinator. You will think of a person or character and I will try to guess it. Let's go? Remember, you will think of a person or character and I will guess, not the other way around!
Then start questions with "Is the person/character you are thinking of ..." or something like that, otherwise ChatGPT gets confused
Rules:
You cannot make the LLM mention the character before asking questions, even in an encrypted way
If there is a general-purpose LLM-based chatbot like ChatGPT that is able to play Akinator, we will count this as a YES
If there is a custom-made Akinator app based on LLMs, we will not count this as a YES
| N/A | 4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2 | ||
xtT4JPBi2Pmasgggn3iE | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,670,600,678,912 | 1,680,458,278,651 | Will Kyrsten Sinema caucus with the Senate Democrats on March 1, 2023? | will-kyrsten-sinema-caucus-with-the-61c791744288 | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-kyrsten-sinema-caucus-with-the-61c791744288 | {
"NO": 5366.620852762079,
"YES": 268.7470071217713
} | 0.990667 | 0.841656 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,866.466192 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,458,278,651 | 0.99 | 23 | 1,680,458,271,642 | 1,680,458,270,497 | 1,680,457,122,682 | [
"us-politics"
] | Resolves Yes if on March 1, 2023 Kyrsten Sinema is listed on https://www.democrats.senate.gov/about-senate-dems/our-caucus. Otherwise No.
Background
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/09/sinema-arizona-senate-independent-00073216
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/us/politics/kyrsten-sinema-democrats.html
Ms. Sinema has not said whether she would caucus with the Democrats, as do two other independent senators, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine. She told Politico that she would not caucus with Republicans, and that her ideology and voting habits would not change.
Note: it's not clearly whether it would matter whether she officially caucuses with the Democrats. The impact depends on to what extent she continues to vote with them on legislation and Senate committees and floor procedure. But her decision on whether to officially caucus with the Democrats may provide some signal about those aspects.
Fine print
If this page moves or becomes available, equivalent official sources may be used instead.
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-senate-democrats-hold-a-strict)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-kyrsten-sinema-caucus-with-the) | N/A | null | ||
UUaMEHw11bISXQUnd2wT | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,081,064,323 | 1,704,222,000,000 | [JANUARY START] Will the S&P 500 close higher on January 2 than it closed on December 29? | january-start-will-the-sp-500-close | https://manifold.markets/Haws/january-start-will-the-sp-500-close | {
"NO": 195.86366134415724,
"YES": 1141.294653473304
} | 0.10617 | 0.409031 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,464.589163 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,011,791,960 | 0.11 | 21 | 1,705,011,792,179 | 1,704,221,693,039 | 1,705,011,786,223 | [
"hawsbollah",
"sp-forecasting-january-league-2024"
] | Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
PRIZE POOL PENDING...
Good luck forecasting!
This Market Also Counts Towards January Topic Leaderboard Run By @SirCryptomind | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
pUBJhlupTo0MIaNNGPQg | IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2 | BionicD0LPH1N | Bionic | 1,675,237,289,703 | 1,680,381,756,103 | Will a major AI Alignment researcher go on Lex Fridman's podcast to (in part) make a case for AI risks in 2023? | will-a-major-ai-alignment-researche | https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-a-major-ai-alignment-researche | {
"NO": 3993.605791641731,
"YES": 211.0971494489977
} | 0.986419 | 0.793354 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,877.562304 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,381,756,103 | 0.99 | 21 | 1,680,381,740,137 | 1,680,381,739,979 | 1,675,267,830,421 | [
"podcasts"
] | For this question to resolve positively, this person needs to at least self-identify as an AI Alignment researcher. If they don't mention AI risks at all during the podcast, it won't count for a positive resolution. | N/A | null | ||
vuJ05i8uaXDeauJbyKnx | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | MarkHamill | Mark Hamill | 1,708,450,784,729 | 1,709,736,735,603 | Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President by March 20? | will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-6dfd4201ad16 | https://manifold.markets/MarkHamill/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-6dfd4201ad16 | {
"NO": 17584.550682460715,
"YES": 178.59108465281923
} | 0.99422 | 0.635954 | 1,160 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 36,930.062531 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,738,026,095 | 0.99 | 98 | 1,709,738,209,219 | 1,709,734,943,053 | 1,709,738,208,577 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"us-politics",
"politics-default"
] | Nikki Haley has vowed to stay in the race till Super Tuesday. One turning point could be March 19, where she may be mathematically eliminated from contention.
[image]Will she drop out then? (includes March 20 to allow for a speech announcing it)
Relevant markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out-from-a58cd86b4439)
drop out before Mar 16 https://manifold.markets/BigJohnisBack/nikki-haley-will-drop-out-of-the-ra?r=TWF0dGZy
drop out before Mar 31
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra
drop out before Apr 30
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-710b1b67355e | N/A | S4Dca8uEDWYskc9fYENrheTcFg82 | ||
KeQ7G7Dk0N6IiMsIkye8 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,684,508,370,849 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,684,981,487,188 | Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 24th | will-the-will-biden-be-the-2024-dem-a597c4d8df6b | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-will-biden-be-the-2024-dem-a597c4d8df6b | {
"NO": 60.972210891195715,
"YES": 3462.680372623055
} | 0.005447 | 0.23725 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,435.427382 | 0 | true | NO | 1,684,981,487,188 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,710,456,560,724 | 1,684,977,521,028 | 1,684,979,367,323 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | Resolve to Yes if the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market is greater than 90% at any two of the following moments on May 24th: 12 noon, 3 pm, and 6 pm ET
Added clarification: I'm resolving based on the rounded displayed number on Manifold UI. Which means that the displayed number has to be 91% to be "greater than 90%"
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n) | N/A | null | null |
fRaiWfuqmKyi8s6uYsB6 | zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03 | CquilPromp | Cquil Promp | 1,695,831,447,627 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c | 1,696,564,740,000 | Gas Price October 9, 2023: Will U.S. average be more than 10 cents above the Sept. 25th level of $3.837 per gallon? | gas-price-october-9-2023-will-us-av | https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/gas-price-october-9-2023-will-us-av | {
"NO": 68.4603734079856,
"YES": 2987.8279189203154
} | 0.005266 | 0.187668 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,389.624623 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,283,187,521 | 0.01 | 7 | 1,697,242,713,587 | 1,696,563,021,534 | 1,697,242,712,853 | [
"inflation",
"commodities",
"gas-prices",
"economics-default",
"oil"
] | Will the U.S. Energy Information Administration national average of gasoline prices released on Monday 2023-10-09 be greater than 3.937 ?
Question closes Thursday 2023-10-05 11:59 PM ET
Resolves according to:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ | N/A | null | null |
ydilxUjs8PNiObZ0Q0zY | LGyAvu07MDRgGj1EjiNjFmyiD6r1 | flexadecimal | chapman | 1,699,458,904,545 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRhysChappell%2FBYPQBMxrN3.07?alt=media&token=577d1ddc-b2e1-4376-b941-9fe13949b89b | 1,704,572,749,266 | Will the temperature on any day in December 2023 be lower than the temperature on that day in December 2022? | will-the-temperature-on-any-day-in-d35c2bf8bebe | https://manifold.markets/flexadecimal/will-the-temperature-on-any-day-in-d35c2bf8bebe | {
"NO": 136.06110979449534,
"YES": 21349.17547946838
} | 0.004107 | 0.392846 | 1,180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 34,082.196274 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,572,749,266 | 0 | 98 | 1,704,572,749,999 | 1,704,568,958,265 | 1,704,568,866,736 | [
"global-warming",
"climate",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This question will resolve according to the data on this site. If the daily surface air temperature on any day in December is strictly less than the 2022 temperature on that day, this will resolve to Yes, otherwise, on January 1 it will resolve to No. | N/A | LGyAvu07MDRgGj1EjiNjFmyiD6r1 | null |
WMXcXo6CNLQpMhkY2wEl | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,707,515,979,977 | 1,708,113,600,000 | Will Apple close higher than 188.85 on February 16? | will-apple-close-higher-than-18875 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-close-higher-than-18875 | {
"NO": 144.61008804567132,
"YES": 2891.817114731123
} | 0.037835 | 0.440203 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,334.676825 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,122,102,812 | 0.04 | 33 | 1,708,122,103,155 | 1,708,095,949,712 | 1,708,122,091,124 | [
"world-default",
"stock-marketweekly",
"economics-default",
"keen-stocks",
"finance",
"technology-default",
"gaming",
"stocks-league-beta",
"stocks",
"entertainment"
] | Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
AAPL closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 16
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
UUSRIndLGmlYtvAJr0Lm | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,022,482,636 | 1,696,131,357,472 | Will Georgia make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final? | will-georgia-make-it-to-the-2023-ru | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-georgia-make-it-to-the-2023-ru | {
"NO": 102.91207577638852,
"YES": 51139.10449696545
} | 0.00036 | 0.151647 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 50,981.325755 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,131,357,472 | 0 | 15 | 1,696,131,351,521 | 1,696,131,351,226 | -1 | [
"2023-rugby-world-cup",
"rugby-union",
"rugby"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup
The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis. | N/A | null | ||
1sUVEAIuDJiv28wJl8sE | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | strutheo | chris (strutheo) | 1,714,412,423,700 | 1,716,406,815,020 | Will California Bill 1047 regulating AI be passed by the end of 2024? | will-california-bill-1047-regulatin-2baed4263022 | https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-california-bill-1047-regulatin-2baed4263022 | {
"NO": 1463.3887619746076,
"YES": 16.045324841196134
} | 0.99 | 0.520495 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,400.969843 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,406,815,020 | 0.99 | 6 | 1,716,406,815,020 | 1,716,406,794,012 | 1,714,412,432,510 | [
"california",
"california-politics",
"ai-governance-policy",
"ai",
"ai-safety"
] | https://legiscan.com/CA/text/SB1047/2023
[image] | N/A | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | null |
|
t30qiUaaCwV2l2NTQAZU | CPlXdJKwuZO5BCSwCYx9K2hsjvS2 | MatthewRitter | Matthew Ritter | 1,685,449,646,558 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7hT6A6WnKdg6GZN4_xcTB5qlG3a9q9kGSMItp7Pd8=s96-c | 1,688,239,908,561 | Will google Bard accurately sum 10 integers on July 1? | will-google-bard-accurately-sum-10 | https://manifold.markets/MatthewRitter/will-google-bard-accurately-sum-10 | {
"NO": 694.2291577862958,
"YES": 159.4883616016171
} | 0.957598 | 0.838404 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,235.513278 | 0 | true | YES | 1,688,308,575,875 | 0.96 | 11 | 1,688,319,838,478 | 1,688,234,433,443 | 1,688,319,832,689 | [
"technology-default",
"ai"
] | I will use python to generate 10 integers between zero and 100, then get their sum. I will then ask Google Bard "Sum the following numbers: 12, 34, ..." and "what is 12 + 34 + ..."
The question resolves YES if both provide the correct answer. May resolve a day or two later if life happens.
This is also a trial run of using manifold to design experiments. If the probability is above 95% or below 5%, I will consider the informational benefit of the experiment insufficient, and resolve NA. I will also gratefully accept suggestions for how to refine the protocol above. If you point out something that moves the probability in your favor, congratulations on a well deserved reward for advancing human knowledge!
[image] | N/A | null | |
AOyn70C1ONWrwIpLGOzN | CWChdPylvrViBJ46NcIbGcK1qDa2 | NicholasKross | Nicholas Kross | 1,683,316,631,167 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will Billie Eilish release a new studio album this year? | will-billie-eilish-release-a-new-st | https://manifold.markets/NicholasKross/will-billie-eilish-release-a-new-st | {
"NO": 89.05933539471764,
"YES": 1757.160238902095
} | 0.027406 | 0.357314 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,576.545525 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,455,274,988 | 0.03 | 12 | 1,704,455,275,264 | 1,704,082,986,244 | 1,704,455,268,474 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"fun",
"release-dates",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Like the two so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billie_Eilish_discography#Studio_albums | N/A | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | null |
|
DbqqOlMZQJ2d6AnpSgyz | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,187,713,741 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,675,205,940,000 | Will Elon Musk publish "Fauci Files" this January? | will-elon-musk-publish-fauci-files | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-elon-musk-publish-fauci-files | {
"NO": 61.60125148981073,
"YES": 1860.4774673038837
} | 0.018532 | 0.363165 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,969.111047 | 0 | true | NO | 1,675,207,487,978 | 0.02 | 16 | 1,710,451,915,878 | 1,675,179,439,074 | 1,673,189,824,770 | [
"twitter",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"covid-d7a9361d772d",
"zero-covid"
] | On Sunday, Musk tweeted that this week he'd release the so-called "Fauci Files," thought to be internal Twitter documents, though their content and relevance is unclear.
Elon has promised publication of "Fauci Files" by January 8, following his previous criticism of the immunologist.
Will Elon finally fulfill his promise?
[image] | N/A | null | |
598bnnJkj3y5DkYStlf6 | 1RM1saYoQKSZKRzAIAFFMrCPbIJ3 | CarlCinco | Carl Cinco | 1,704,766,268,416 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKR7lFxwfkOctmW2LtzDlDkHFSui7l_iqlLtH2GD57wnA=s96-c | 1,713,748,093,838 | Will an Indian win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | will-an-indian-win-the-2024-fide-ca | https://manifold.markets/CarlCinco/will-an-indian-win-the-2024-fide-ca | {
"NO": 5660.023020278966,
"YES": 135.37028198772083
} | 0.989133 | 0.685243 | 930 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,766.481504 | 0 | true | YES | 1,713,748,093,838 | 0.99 | 50 | 1,713,748,093,838 | 1,713,747,593,053 | -1 | [
"chess-candidates-2024",
"chess"
] | Will resolve YES if a player under the flag of the India wins the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament. R Praggnanandhaa, Vidit Gujrathi, and Gukesh D are currently expected to play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
Will resolve NO otherwise.
This is expected to resolve by the end of the tournament which is scheduled to end on April 25, 2024 | N/A | 1RM1saYoQKSZKRzAIAFFMrCPbIJ3 | |
vA08i1dQccXFynyvl8Fp | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,703,281,059,602 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,704,654,360,000 | NFL🏈: Week 18 -- Will the Tennessee Titans win their NFL Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 01/07? | nfl-week-18-will-the-tennessee-tita | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-18-will-the-tennessee-tita | {
"NO": 357.6822045224726,
"YES": 168.1306281223499
} | 0.58 | 0.393618 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,487.578085 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,661,459,133 | 0.58 | 16 | 1,710,206,777,893 | 1,704,654,208,659 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"tennessee-titans",
"jacksonville-jaguars"
] | Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.
I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!! | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
tfKR5YWmAr6rklEdxIHL | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,684,698,641,956 | 1,686,887,940,000 | Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by June 15? | will-ukraine-retake-western-bakhmut | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-retake-western-bakhmut | {
"NO": 1032.000527686578,
"YES": 79801.81233066104
} | 0.001526 | 0.105698 | 1,670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 85,324.196346 | 0 | true | NO | 1,686,924,971,844 | 0 | 36 | 1,686,907,517,324 | 1,686,883,972,877 | 1,686,907,514,777 | [
"bakhmut",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | Resolution
Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.
For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).
Resolution details
Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above.
Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.
[link preview][link preview][link preview][link preview] | N/A | null | ||
z5Jm9Seq1ZcQq9IseEeQ | JnOkh5qQePdd6gewBsOvDhNepSd2 | SaiPranav | Sai Pranav | 1,693,393,781,706 | 1,702,783,376,745 | Will BJP form government after the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly Elections? | will-bjp-form-government-after-the | https://manifold.markets/SaiPranav/will-bjp-form-government-after-the | {
"NO": 654.4306794386039,
"YES": 27.053217042134122
} | 0.978308 | 0.650887 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 657.975684 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,783,376,745 | 0.98 | 5 | 1,702,699,803,167 | 1,702,699,582,405 | 1,702,699,802,431 | [
"india"
] | N/A | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | null |
||
FEnQ03SSnlwOpNl6D8vi | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,672,717,508,849 | 1,673,070,055,614 | Will McCarthy be elected next Speaker of the House with fewer than 218 votes? | will-mccarthy-be-elected-next-speak | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-mccarthy-be-elected-next-speak | {
"NO": 8119.10620733163,
"YES": 60.24843609051861
} | 0.995707 | 0.632484 | 830 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,212.559718 | 0 | true | YES | 1,673,070,055,614 | 0.79 | 43 | 1,673,070,581,049 | 1,673,070,040,275 | 1,673,070,576,737 | [
"118th-congress",
"us-politics",
"speaker-of-the-house-election",
"please-resolve"
] | Resolves YES if McCarthy is elected next Speaker of the House with strictly fewer than 218 votes for him. Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/
The magic number is 218 – kind of.
A candidate requires votes from a majority of lawmakers who are voting to be elected speaker. That means if all 435 members are present and voting, the number of votes needed is 218.
But lawmakers can decide to skip the vote, or vote "present," which reduces the vote threshold needed to win the speakership. Speakers Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and John Boehner, R-Ohio, both won the speakership without reaching 218 votes.
In the next Congress, all 434 members (one fewer than 435 because Virginia Rep. Donald McEachin recently died and a successor has yet to be chosen) can vote. If the results, for example, are: 216 votes for McCarthy, 212 for a Democratic candidate and 6 representatives vote for someone else, the 216 votes would not be the majority of 434 needed for the speakership. McCarthy would come up short.
However, if those six representatives do not vote for someone else, they don't count toward the total votes needed. This lowers the threshold to 428, meaning a 216 vote could secure the speakership for McCarthy.
Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.) | N/A | null | ||
TnUgS0u3UsSahJy3ckOj | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,693,859,933,757 | 1,694,541,153,751 | Will Apple introduce an iPhone case using a new fabric-like material at their September 2023 event? | will-apple-introduce-an-iphone-case | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/will-apple-introduce-an-iphone-case | {
"NO": 970.1564174962504,
"YES": 141.4703403878151
} | 0.963531 | 0.793931 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 893.404511 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,541,153,751 | 0.96 | 11 | 1,694,541,119,077 | 1,694,541,118,924 | -1 | [
"iphone",
"apple"
] | Event is 2023-09-12 at 10 AM PT. "Fabric-like" means woven with possibly synthetic fibers.
Market for name of material:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/eppsilon/if-apple-releases-an-iphone-case-ma) | N/A | null | ||
Cc0FFMglccP509bjMhqA | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,623,946,347 | 1,704,726,000,000 | Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-665cd2a80b6e | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-665cd2a80b6e | {
"NO": 84.87386120704745,
"YES": 116.99999999999999
} | 0.133434 | 0.175097 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 27 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,786,722,245 | 0.13 | 3 | 1,704,786,722,463 | 1,704,697,400,670 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-08 15:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 17:00 (UTC)
09:00 (Los Angeles)
12:00 (New York)
18:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
emD4BeWVKbvwTU4y8YQe | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | Gabrielle | Gabrielle | 1,669,065,820,639 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c | 1,705,327,893,753 | If the Democratic party runs open primaries for the 2024 presidential election, will Biden take part in them? | if-the-democratic-party-runs-open-p | https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/if-the-democratic-party-runs-open-p | {
"NO": 2769.4408989828676,
"YES": 517.9737305356313
} | 0.958989 | 0.813901 | 730 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,684.549666 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,327,893,753 | 0.96 | 17 | 1,705,327,894,478 | 1,705,097,454,144 | 1,704,073,078,472 | [
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"the-life-of-biden",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Will Biden take part in the 2024 presidential primaries, if the Democratic party runs them? This would be a situation where there are presidential primaries for the Democratic party, where at least one candidate other than Biden takes part, and Biden also takes part.
Resolves as YES if the Democratic party announces open primaries and both Biden and at least one other Democrat file to run. Resolves as NO if the Democratic party announces open primaries, and Biden has not filed to run by the first primary/caucaus.
Resolves N/A if the Democratic party does not run open primaries, or if open primaries occur but Biden is the only candidate. | N/A | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | |
iwDdhlIbEui4fZ5ELAw1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,691,701,800,954 | 1,692,054,000,000 | Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher August 14th Than August 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-d6da99b372f2 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-d6da99b372f2 | {
"NO": 391.0804244697291,
"YES": 252.46721785089287
} | 0.700916 | 0.602054 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,439.025359 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,063,832,023 | 0.7 | 15 | 1,692,063,831,738 | 1,692,052,233,984 | 1,692,063,829,462 | [
"crypto-speculation",
"finance",
"economics-default",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 hours prior.
[image]Resolves according to the display at
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
FG8udMC9xZlFMGk484GS | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,678,628,912 | 1,703,753,100,000 | Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-28 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-ff8ad66a4bac | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-ff8ad66a4bac | {
"NO": 89.60029899044233,
"YES": 86.60177442941874
} | 0.11 | 0.106712 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 57.126553 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,849,376,214 | 0.11 | 3 | 1,703,849,376,521 | 1,703,752,517,229 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-28 08:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-28 - 10:45 (UTC)
02:45 (Los Angeles)
05:45 (New York)
11:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:15
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
19FTaSEKZFtyR4fYVdCs | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,697,917,158,869 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,698,117,109,500 | Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-minnesota-vikings-beat-the-933c67816b3d | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-minnesota-vikings-beat-the-933c67816b3d | {
"NO": 4524.796000336589,
"YES": 19.242980913480892
} | 0.994384 | 0.429559 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 19,740.362598 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,117,116,058 | 0.99 | 38 | 1,698,117,049,261 | 1,698,117,049,127 | 1,698,110,001,301 | [
"sports-default",
"minnesota-vikings",
"nfl",
"football",
"san-francisco-49ers"
] | Yes - Vikings win
No - 49ers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | null | null |