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9Ko8YbTnTGKJZqoZys1V | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,700,417,747,479 | 1,702,494,900,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Wed. December 13th than it closed on Tue. December 12th? {DAILY} | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-95ac4ac010f7 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-95ac4ac010f7 | {
"NO": 599.7649425494069,
"YES": 176.62275774992077
} | 0.888493 | 0.701178 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 540 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,506,357,446 | 0.89 | 11 | 1,702,506,351,583 | 1,702,492,602,572 | 1,702,506,350,820 | [
"sccsq4",
"finance",
"economics-default",
"stocks"
] | VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)
VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close :
[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
WEEKLY MARKET
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-f29dc7859a2d) | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
p5VnjJgqAZmJXxAJLlEy | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,693,684,700,238 | 1,693,809,900,000 | Will DL flight 31 from London to Atlanta on 2023-09-04 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-4d9ba88f919f | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-4d9ba88f919f | {
"NO": 88.3903305720327,
"YES": 196.4777118336078
} | 0.857785 | 0.930591 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 139.385697 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,860,487,761 | 0.86 | 9 | 1,693,803,683,917 | 1,693,803,683,798 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/bdesukkd | N/A | null | null |
|
CVsITKtajh2w9yOA6cEN | 5wimE4rvzuVMBbkeY6Yzu89tk823 | EvanConrad | Evan Conrad | 1,658,333,281,116 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwWC9VGCINJOQ9cvn65Xj4i42sqhYtTrsSXWDGh=s96-c | 1,704,005,702,012 | Will the proposition that puts cars back on JFK drive in Golden Gate Park pass in November? | will-the-proposition-that-puts-cars | https://manifold.markets/EvanConrad/will-the-proposition-that-puts-cars | {
"NO": 17.092962015267688,
"YES": 1143.5606471302278
} | 0.007699 | 0.341709 | 120 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,193.430548 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,005,702,012 | 0.01 | 5 | 1,704,005,703,017 | 1,704,004,360,978 | 1,704,004,355,904 | [] | A group in San Francisco has gathered enough signatures for the "Uses of the Great Highway and JFK Drive", which will appear on the ballot in November 8th election.
This proposition:
Opens up JFK Drive to private motor vehicles on weekdays. (It's currently been closed to cars for about 2 years)
Opens up the "Great Highway" on all days. (It's currently closed on weekends, and about 1/3rd of the year due ocean erosion).
Limits the city's ability to close Great Highway or JFK in the future
Prevents the city from Southern Great Highway. The city had previously planned to close the highway and rebuild the beach in its place, as rising sea levels & erosion have been pushing the sea line inwards towards the road.
The proposal summary can be found here: https://sfelections.sfgov.org/sites/default/files/Documents/candidates/20220621_UsesOfTheGreatHighwayAndJFKDrive.pdf.
The full legal text can be found here: https://sfelections.sfgov.org/sites/default/files/Documents/candidates/AccessForAll_LegalText.pdf
There's a few websites supporting the proposals:
https://www.openthegreathighway.com
https://openthestreets.wordpress.com
Jul 20, 9:08am:
Jul 20, 9:08am:
Jul 20, 9:09am: Will the proposition that puts cars back on JFK drive in Golden Gate Park pass in November? → Will the proposition that puts cars back on JFK drive in Golden Gate Park pass in November? | N/A | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | null |
DDU6kttamQOBqd2KzbA8 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,664,640,406,046 | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will Iran attack US forces in Iraq in 2022, causing at least one casualty? | will-iran-attack-us-forces-in-iraq | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-iran-attack-us-forces-in-iraq | {
"NO": 54.880396777699595,
"YES": 666.2762445128778
} | 0.030904 | 0.2791 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,053.937058 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,728,467,318 | 0.03 | 7 | 1,672,548,249,147 | 1,672,548,249,049 | -1 | [
"iran"
] | Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian military forces exchanged fire or any other "kinetic conflict" with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces, by the end of 2022. Otherwise NO.
Background
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-attacks-northern-iraq-with-missiles-and-drones-killing-at-least-13-11664402169
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it targeted what it called terrorist groups in Iraqi Kurdistan; a U.S. warplane shot down one drone as it headed toward a city where American troops are based
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-september-30
A senior Iranian military official, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, threatened to attack US forces in Iraq in retaliation for the US shootdown of an Iranian drone illegally operating in Iraqi airspace near an American military base.[4] Bagheri also suggested that Iran would attack US bases in Iraq for supporting anti-regime Kurdish groups.
Resolution criteria examples
For some examples of what does and doesn't count:
The drone attacks mentioned in the articles above clearly count as Iran attacking non-US forces and causing casualties among non-US forces. If the same events had happened but at least one US soldier had been injured in the drone attacks, that would resolve YES.
If US forces are injured as a result of a cyberattack or other non-kinetic conflict, that would not resolve YES.
If the identity of the attackers is not known with certainty, resolves YES if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% chance that it was Iran. | N/A | null | null |
|
DvQgQlARbqeGTbB2plhE | tDkSpNOk43c3Qo6JSTJ86eUcHL43 | FranciJezek | Franci Jezek | 1,690,913,375,334 | 1,690,989,145,017 | Will there be an impeachment in usa in 2023? | will-there-be-an-impeachment-in-usa | https://manifold.markets/FranciJezek/will-there-be-an-impeachment-in-usa | {
"NO": 187.16024561618318,
"YES": 372.2907678517852
} | 0.095782 | 0.174037 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 495.953775 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,989,145,017 | 0.1 | 12 | 1,691,699,632,301 | 1,690,980,874,969 | 1,691,699,629,652 | [] | N/A | null | null |
||
jQgsXCID4loKrNX8J24r | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,695,762,119,885 | 1,695,841,019,153 | Will the TSX close higher on September 27 than it did on September 26? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-septem-bf7e3367c2eb | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-septem-bf7e3367c2eb | {
"NO": 99.17174079926738,
"YES": 269.92986807462574
} | 0.19 | 0.38967 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,535.179981 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,848,544,977 | 0.19 | 8 | 1,695,848,536,920 | 1,695,840,948,226 | 1,695,848,536,363 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
yr5r5nXTOmyVUKqmYOCI | PQaj2kMRqoSMpBoBhaxgL9pFwBH3 | DungDevil | DungDevil | 1,693,284,862,368 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc3tGqTBsfM9z7QQ18u05aB8qFAsi1jzvTsMUsfQUzy=s96-c | 1,704,153,540,000 | Will AMD have improved it's graphics card market share as measured by the Steam Hardware Survey at the end of the year? | will-amd-have-improved-its-graphics | https://manifold.markets/DungDevil/will-amd-have-improved-its-graphics | {
"NO": 7483.619992047044,
"YES": 282.7127564865642
} | 0.983238 | 0.689056 | 810 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,801.292294 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,166,168,161 | 0.98 | 44 | 1,704,249,596,505 | 1,704,153,252,301 | 1,704,249,595,767 | [
"steam",
"gaming",
"computer-hardware",
"technology-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Steam conducts monthly hardware surveys, the latest of which(at time of writing) measures AMD's market share at 15.93% amongst it's sample of users.
[image]The latest results can be found at:
https://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/
The results at time of posting are archived here:
https://archive.is/fo5fd
At the time of the question closing, on the 1st of January 2024, the latest published Hardware Survey at the time must show a percentage greater than 15.93% to satisfy the 'yes' condition.
The 'no' condition would be satisfied if AMD's market share is shown to be equal to or less than 15.93%.
The 'yes' condition requires a percentage in excess of 15.93% at the time of the question closing, AMD increasing it's market share at an earlier point in the year to above 15.93% and then falling back to or below 15.93% would not satisfy the 'yes' condition. | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
gQfoihxVI4WbthT5eq6D | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,700,673,512,762 | 1,700,755,200,000 | Will Allianz SE close higher november 23th than the close of november 22th? (Daily Market) | will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-79ff59ea4526 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-79ff59ea4526 | {
"NO": 663.6147262369755,
"YES": 96.44116014581445
} | 0.963383 | 0.792681 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,170.239925 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,758,877,220 | 0.96 | 11 | 1,710,222,351,126 | 1,700,754,328,092 | 1,700,758,873,359 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
canTNeTMSF2JCwym6hQc | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,926,043,286 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,679,508,669,787 | Will Vaush's video "Vaush Describes The PERFECT Batman Story" reach 40k views by 3/22 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-vaush-describes-t | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-vaush-describes-t | {
"NO": 10.333696896410402,
"YES": 10511.666666666666
} | 0.000324 | 0.2479 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,440 | 0 | true | NO | 1,679,508,669,787 | 0 | 3 | 1,710,218,584,571 | 1,679,508,666,694 | -1 | [
"entertainment",
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/2UTHOADlsmY
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
50xioeK1GfcEw2VZ0yMd | EB38gVKAlYQHulWNFyZ7pnyT7Um1 | HelenD | Helen D | 1,692,470,011,175 | 1,692,480,221,903 | Will Miami Marlins beat LA Dodgers ⚾️ 8/19/2023? | will-miami-marlins-beat-la-dodgers | https://manifold.markets/HelenD/will-miami-marlins-beat-la-dodgers | {
"NO": 10.697073989317179,
"YES": 443.73205129319774
} | 0.022597 | 0.489538 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 737.9506 | 0 | true | NO | 1,692,480,229,426 | 0.02 | 2 | 1,692,479,644,608 | 1,692,479,644,475 | -1 | [
"mlb",
"sports-default",
"baseball"
] | Game Aug 19 @LA 12:00PM Pacific | N/A | null | null |
|
jcOUqFNdWmCEf9qPPPaT | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | bohaska | Bohaska | 1,694,950,398,780 | 1,715,554,849,702 | Will there be more people living in liberal democracies in 2023 than in 2022? | will-there-be-more-people-living-in | https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-there-be-more-people-living-in | {
"NO": 521.9142370248157,
"YES": 48.67850508936107
} | 0.776072 | 0.244282 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 899.779287 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,554,849,702 | 0.78 | 15 | 1,715,554,849,702 | 1,715,554,807,024 | 1,715,554,713,286 | [
"world-default",
"democratisation",
"politics-default"
] | Will there be more people living in liberal democracies in 2023 than in 2022?
The number of people living in liberal democracies has steadily declined from 2018, from 1.10 billion people to 1.02 billion people in 2022.
Will this trend be arrested in 2023, or will it continue?
Resolution criteria based on https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies
If somehow, the exact same number of people live in liberal democracies in 2023 as in 2022, this question will resolve as 50%.
[link preview] | N/A | KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2 | null |
|
AzqAFvgBeUaTpl1xxdfO | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | nickten | nickten 💙💦🐬 | 1,694,249,632,075 | 1,694,746,800,000 | Will Euronext 100 close higher this week? [Sep 8 - Sep 15] | will-euronext-100-close-higher-this-dfbff8c8e3f3 | https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-euronext-100-close-higher-this-dfbff8c8e3f3 | {
"NO": 353.3671567602402,
"YES": 129.45389749319222
} | 0.798255 | 0.591758 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 297.583514 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,810,692,217 | 0.8 | 7 | 1,694,811,446,836 | 1,694,746,525,995 | 1,694,811,445,260 | [
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"finance",
"eurocuck"
] | Sep 8 close 1,340.38
Sep 15 close ?
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/N100:INDEXEURO
Resolves to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN100/history/
This question closes the day before to reduce degeneracy.
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard. | N/A | null | null |
|
aHkXl4NQkgb2VCkkVSyw | 5vSej7GM5xZKZnuiSAPQXVQPdQv1 | ChrisGreene | Chris Greene | 1,693,709,976,279 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf23z1P0XxoIFf3J1V7r0fhnEsKeTL3B5FnnfDmZvYDrGc=s96-c | 1,702,535,459,793 | Will IBM release Condor in 2023? | will-ibm-release-condor-in-2023 | https://manifold.markets/ChrisGreene/will-ibm-release-condor-in-2023 | {
"NO": 579.7796737551433,
"YES": 73.30476337666813
} | 0.950703 | 0.709161 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 476.522852 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,535,459,793 | 0.95 | 7 | 1,701,855,533,144 | 1,701,855,533,021 | 1,701,842,106,256 | [] | IBM has released the 400 qubit Osprey in 2022, and made it available to customers. Will IBM do the same for the Condor, it's 1121 qubit chip? | N/A | 5vSej7GM5xZKZnuiSAPQXVQPdQv1 | null |
z1DJghyGvGlupcNdY0UE | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | KevinBurke | Kevin Burke | 1,695,227,918,452 | 1,701,009,812,762 | Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | will-charles-leclerc-finish-on-the-2fef3a971096 | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-charles-leclerc-finish-on-the-2fef3a971096 | {
"NO": 12086.419878140354,
"YES": 11.21773777243925
} | 0.999201 | 0.53717 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,552.652895 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,009,812,762 | 1 | 21 | 1,701,009,809,377 | 1,701,009,809,240 | -1 | [
"formula-1"
] | A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. | N/A | null | null |
|
bL50xUEaLVQ4n1TLuaGe | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,675,274,762,569 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,677,625,140,000 | February 2023: Will Volodymyr Zelensky visit Poland? | february-2023-will-volodymyr-zelens | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/february-2023-will-volodymyr-zelens | {
"NO": 259.40730564761634,
"YES": 4518.523027247557
} | 0.009716 | 0.145962 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,147.547382 | 0 | true | NO | 1,677,628,209,943 | 0.01 | 21 | 1,677,622,171,684 | 1,677,622,171,483 | 1,675,445,374,044 | [
"ukraine",
"poland",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | [image]➡️ check out Tomek's Specials! 😎 | N/A | null | |
py4sxfcstd5OJWRRAyN5 | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | jacksonpolack | jackson polack | 1,700,679,518,006 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c | 1,716,533,940,000 | In six months, will we believe that the OpenAI board acted incompetently in firing sam altman? | in-six-months-will-we-believe-that | https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/in-six-months-will-we-believe-that | {
"NO": 421.4119867399463,
"YES": 60.36666107193024
} | 0.953612 | 0.746501 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 475.338466 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,941,072,646 | 0.95 | 8 | 1,716,533,940,000 | 1,716,532,236,292 | -1 | [
"sam-altman",
"openai-crisis",
"openai"
] | As in, they were very ineffectively pursuing their goals, whatever those goals were.
Like, if it comes out that there was some incredibly complicated secret that made their actions obviously reasonable and locally optimal, then this resolves no.
Resolves to me - or a resolution council of mods if my choice is disputed - evaluating the answer as a reasonable person would judge. (I don't like poll resolutions, sometimes they get brigaded)
This still will resolve yes or no if the information we have is as hazy as it is today. | N/A | 4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2 | null |
3Imcs1KkynEfdLdvjch9 | IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2 | Manifold | Manifold | 1,669,919,302,831 | 1,670,097,600,000 | Will Argentina beat Australia? | will-argentina-beat-australia | https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-argentina-beat-australia | {
"NO": 2915.3536482006048,
"YES": 933.2143187837023
} | 0.94 | 0.833748 | 1,150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,635.444092 | 0 | true | YES | 1,670,106,389,735 | 0.94 | 34 | 1,670,106,758,267 | 1,670,097,597,584 | 1,670,106,755,298 | [
"fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio",
"2022-fifa-world-cup"
] | YES = Argentina
NO = Australia
See details and google's win probability here
Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site. | N/A | null | ||
UcA7sAElaND5Ay5ePGYU | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,700,673,658,028 | 1,700,755,200,000 | Will Lufthansa close higher november 23th than the close of november 22th? (Daily Market) | will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-d965b441f661 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-d965b441f661 | {
"NO": 109.74589953932337,
"YES": 1392.3620908382136
} | 0.013402 | 0.147006 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,497.117288 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,759,138,427 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,700,759,135,189 | 1,700,753,065,647 | 1,700,759,134,520 | [
"sccsq4",
"stocks",
"finance"
] | Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
WCIHgdngyOfIge8EzgmU | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,702,627,292,078 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,703,456,700,000 | NFL🏈: Week 16: Will the Tampa Buccaneers win their NFL Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 12/24? | nfl-week-16-will-the-tampa-buccanee | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-16-will-the-tampa-buccanee | {
"NO": 744.9479107671901,
"YES": 51.616864554523865
} | 0.93 | 0.479318 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,217.806149 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,462,851,175 | 0.93 | 10 | 1,710,206,770,052 | 1,703,456,309,308 | -1 | [
"football",
"nfl",
"tampa-bay-buccaneers",
"jacksonville-jaguars"
] | I am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.
I am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.
So this market will close on 12/24 @ 2:25 PM PACIFIC TIME. | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
xrOn7Iz1FC8oO2bzEJn9 | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,699,820,001,131 | 1,700,343,000,551 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will UMass beat #25 Liberty? | -2023-ncaaf-will-umass-beat-25-libe | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-umass-beat-25-libe | {
"NO": 38.10587662963875,
"YES": 3665.031340471396
} | 0.002582 | 0.199372 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,840.10697 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,343,000,551 | 0 | 9 | 1,700,340,640,497 | 1,700,340,640,327 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"conference-usa"
] | 2023-11-18 at 1 PM ET in Lynchburg, VA.
Line: Liberty -28.
Head-to-head:
Overall: UMass 1, Liberty 4, Tie 0 | N/A | null | ||
SjMpVlYMfQoK3iDLGuii | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,681,297,432,747 | 1,681,327,131,155 | Will the Bakhmut train station be claimed by Russia by April 20? | will-the-bakhmut-2-train-station-be | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-bakhmut-2-train-station-be | {
"NO": 4371.221017094703,
"YES": 63.91285279548697
} | 0.993911 | 0.704733 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,462.899979 | 0 | true | YES | 1,681,327,131,155 | 0.99 | 15 | 1,681,327,124,534 | 1,681,327,124,360 | 1,681,327,099,279 | [
"ukraine",
"bakhmut",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia claims control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded orange or red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through April 20.
[image](Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Closely related question that asks whether the train station will be shaded red:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri#Ym9KLOSvv6045D8mgo81) | N/A | null | ||
8dCaMFC7nOfVtmjjL8bf | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | Blomfilter | Blomfilter | 1,694,061,501,876 | 1,705,703,132,899 | Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander land successfully | will-japans-moon-lander-land-succes | https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-japans-moon-lander-land-succes | {
"NO": 4266.216336061173,
"YES": 248.8316027354828
} | 0.984536 | 0.787844 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,641.28839 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,703,132,899 | 0.98 | 25 | 1,705,703,133,668 | 1,705,691,917,729 | 1,705,698,029,607 | [
"moon",
"space"
] | https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/japans-moon-lander-mission-to-be-launched-on-thursday
https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1699575561243259015
[link preview]Will Japans moon lander mission land successfully on the moon?
https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/science/japan-launches-moon-sniper-lunar-lander-slim-to-space-8928261/
date says 4-6 months from september for landing
Resolves NO if no telemetry received after landing.
Resolves YES if telemetry receveived after landing. (it can have a scuffed landing, but if it still survives, and sends back data, it resolves YES) | N/A | UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1 | null |
|
uZRRioF9pxOH2I3lfx2x | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,707,341,808,352 | 1,713,799,001,604 | Will Pitchfork give Taylor Swift's "The Tortured Poets Department" album a score >7.5? | will-pitchfork-give-taylor-swifts-t | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-pitchfork-give-taylor-swifts-t | {
"NO": 136.60468429033466,
"YES": 3623.549122782338
} | 0.010273 | 0.215887 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,700.284414 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,799,001,604 | 0.01 | 17 | 1,713,799,075,587 | 1,713,796,240,422 | 1,713,799,075,040 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"culture-default",
"taylor-swift",
"entertainment",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720"
] | This market resolves YES if the original Pitchfork review for The Tortured Poets Department by Taylor Swift gives a score of >7.5. It resolves NO if the score is 7.5 or less. If for some reason Pitchfork never reviews the album, I suppose I will have to resolve it N/A.
For reference, this is what I see for her recent new releases:
Midnights: 7.0
Evermore: 7.9
Folklore: 8.0
Lover: 7.1
Thus, Evermore & Folklore would resolve YES, Midnights & Lover would resolve NO.
| N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | ||
s0xvs5ZYXfd4Mz8xOhYr | tBLV0DkLmwWT5WrLswQj0Xfwuld2 | Multicore | Multicore | 1,678,244,067,195 | 1,681,268,355,939 | In the Manifold MTG Tournament, will anyone ultimate a planeswalker? | in-the-manifold-mtg-tournament-will-7e4071dbba63 | https://manifold.markets/Multicore/in-the-manifold-mtg-tournament-will-7e4071dbba63 | {
"NO": 1667.050258405836,
"YES": 86.10428457781926
} | 0.967931 | 0.609215 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,923.859429 | 0 | true | YES | 1,681,268,355,939 | 0.97 | 13 | 1,681,268,345,426 | 1,681,267,322,830 | 1,681,268,342,187 | [
"february-mtg-tournament"
] | I'll use the definition that an ultimate is a loyalty ability that costs more loyalty than the planeswalker starts with. By this definition, two of our eligible decks have planeswalkers with ultimates - Kaito Shizuki in blue-black, and Elspeth Resplendent in white-blue.
Will anyone use one of those planeswalkers' ultimate ability in a game that is part of the tournament?
This market depends on reports, and the burden of proof is on YES. | N/A | null | ||
MUPNr38NAKGzFhBpxBpz | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,704,140,565,821 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,704,430,789,950 | Will Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market be in [86%,87%] at the end of Jan 04, 2024? | will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-60266b1e19e4 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-biden-2024-democratic-nominee-60266b1e19e4 | {
"NO": 99.43668900285905,
"YES": 217.74922927431714
} | 0.28 | 0.459926 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 130.976893 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,432,638,905 | 0.28 | 8 | 1,704,432,639,142 | 1,704,425,759,120 | -1 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the referenced market is at [86%,87%] (inclusive) at the end of Jan 04, 2024.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Referenced Market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Note:
-Resolution base on the displayed rounded probability
-Base on ET time zone
| N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
9nIyQvOWE7EQHESRRa7X | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,693,416,689,951 | 1,693,476,300,000 | Will TP flight 554 from Lisbon to Munich on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-tp-flight-554-from-lisbon-to-m | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-tp-flight-554-from-lisbon-to-m | {
"NO": 67.98341694749432,
"YES": 70.83957271817854
} | 0.7 | 0.708571 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 14.394287 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,504,030,513 | 0.7 | 2 | 1,693,458,130,887 | 1,693,458,130,745 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/bd5aurbp | N/A | null | null |
|
WcD4IEp8azJlidD3g05x | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,891,296,584 | 1,701,964,800,000 | Will Lufthansa close higher december 7th than the close of december 6th? (Daily Market) | will-lufthansa-close-higher-decembe-f44911c21036 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-lufthansa-close-higher-decembe-f44911c21036 | {
"NO": 118.47559000892447,
"YES": 2382.745109555058
} | 0.006378 | 0.114333 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,007.719986 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,974,982,269 | 0.01 | 10 | 1,710,222,346,765 | 1,701,961,178,334 | 1,701,974,977,708 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
KrrdcZ5Bt81QKug3G7kB | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,703,086,580,544 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,703,538,352,595 | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-0d9f91d60e06 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-0d9f91d60e06 | {
"NO": 20.666614647348354,
"YES": 5711.436291138894
} | 0.001371 | 0.275014 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,729.30243 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,538,362,453 | 0 | 18 | 1,703,538,346,655 | 1,703,538,346,539 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"kansas-city-chiefs",
"las-vegas-raiders",
"nfl",
"football"
] | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Raiders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
B81zFQG5fOlVrtdiRmma | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,680,381,188,165 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,682,924,340,000 | Will the Ukrainian army pull out of Bakhmut in April? | will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of-07285fcdace9 | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-pull-out-of-07285fcdace9 | {
"NO": 203.95002118295045,
"YES": 8119.445490255105
} | 0.010046 | 0.287743 | 690 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15,433.202288 | 0 | true | NO | 1,682,936,188,138 | 0.01 | 36 | 1,704,324,796,247 | 1,682,919,815,691 | 1,682,936,819,434 | [
"world-default",
"geopolitics",
"ukraine",
"russia",
"wars",
"ukrainerussia-war",
"bakhmut"
] | Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
(https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) | N/A | null | |
ItubMNGyqILeFZ4EN4FU | pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23 | MrLuke255 | MrLuke255 | 1,695,985,746,786 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdg1avhCMoBkHhCstNtQDHtbxSxH089ql8vXTP6lrfvvQ=s96-c | 1,697,234,340,000 | 2023 Polish election and referendum: referendum to have >=10 p.p. less voter turnout? | 2023-polish-election-and-referendum | https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/2023-polish-election-and-referendum | {
"NO": 275.90853935264676,
"YES": 153.55463655239853
} | 0.81 | 0.703495 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 224.171343 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,542,132,445 | 0.81 | 10 | 1,697,542,112,674 | 1,697,229,371,666 | 1,697,542,110,916 | [
"poland",
"politics-in-poland",
"polish-2023-referendum"
] | Along with the parliamentary election, there will be a referendum hosted which will ask four questions:
@/MrLuke255/polish-referendum-14-do-you-support@/MrLuke255/polish-referendum-24-are-you-in-fav
@/MrLuke255/polish-referendum-34-do-you-support@/MrLuke255/polish-referendum-44-do-you-support
The opposition is encouraging people not to take part in the referendum, to decline the ballot for the referendum, vote only in the election.
Is the voter turnout for the referendum going to be at least 10 percentage points less than for the parliamentary election?
For example: resolves YES if the voter turnout for the referendum is 45,32% and 55,32% for the election, resolves NO in case for referendum 45,33% and 55,32% for election.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MrLuke255/2023-polish-election-and-referendum-6870f5c04161) | N/A | null | |
545VTR6VuPDE4Im95s9C | sTUV8ejuM2byukNZp7qKP2OKXMx2 | 10thOfficial | The Official | 1,699,294,659,206 | 1,699,815,057,811 | Will the New England Patriots zerstören the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 Germany | will-the-new-england-patriots-zerst | https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/will-the-new-england-patriots-zerst | {
"NO": 39.57398195374117,
"YES": 33202.291129152116
} | 0.000534 | 0.309572 | 530 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 43,493.806218 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,815,057,811 | 0 | 33 | 1,699,815,049,070 | 1,699,815,048,961 | -1 | [
"germany",
"nfl",
"sports-default",
"football"
] | YES if Patriots win. NO if Colts win or tie.
zerstören = destroy | N/A | null | ||
ekrbFpgflsPbcMc1yZPP | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,396,135,132 | 1,704,641,700,000 | Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-07 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-0accda208adb | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-0accda208adb | {
"NO": 69.85076935105681,
"YES": 70.99999999999999
} | 0.128572 | 0.130412 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,656,641,361 | 0.13 | 2 | 1,704,656,641,588 | 1,704,612,452,747 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-07 15:35 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 17:35 (UTC)
09:35 (Los Angeles)
12:35 (New York)
18:35 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
b8SoU0mFfMXSMrIrs9BP | Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63 | ersatz | ersatz | 1,672,082,608,136 | 1,698,710,924,761 | Will the Apple M3 have dedicated silicon for the ray tracing workflow? | will-the-apple-m3-have-dedicated-si | https://manifold.markets/ersatz/will-the-apple-m3-have-dedicated-si | {
"NO": 565.6267799941313,
"YES": 178.43463044595813
} | 0.9 | 0.739527 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 857.453336 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,710,924,761 | 0.9 | 14 | 1,698,710,920,898 | 1,698,710,920,771 | 1,698,178,569,076 | [
"technology-default",
"apple",
"semiconductors"
] |
Close date updated to 2025-01-01 12:59 am | N/A | null | ||
xBlMtPKEZPaQOl4alVaH | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,700,417,877,791 | 1,702,926,900,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Mon. December 18th than it closed on Fri. December 15th? {DAILY} | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-5d1071882135 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-5d1071882135 | {
"NO": 553.2640060898748,
"YES": 148.37430393331024
} | 0.877615 | 0.657898 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 476.19043 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,940,506,379 | 0.88 | 10 | 1,702,940,499,255 | 1,702,926,453,631 | 1,702,940,498,739 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)
VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close :
[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
WEEKLY MARKET
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-13274207f09c) | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
XP1mjAxhNjIMmJ3qR2nB | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | mattyb | Matty B | 1,704,710,714,895 | 1,705,377,184,484 | Will Andor win a 2023 Primetime Emmy? | will-andor-win-a-2023-primetime-emm | https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-andor-win-a-2023-primetime-emm | {
"NO": 32.62713083078981,
"YES": 1702.2651231050943
} | 0.009679 | 0.337704 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,596.819549 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,377,184,484 | 0.01 | 5 | 1,710,207,073,302 | 1,705,377,177,627 | 1,705,363,377,055 | [
"culture-default",
"entertainment",
"television-film",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720",
"awards-shows",
"star-wars",
"emmys-2023"
] | Andor has been nominated for 3 awards: Outstanding Drama Series,
Outstanding Directing (Drama), and Outstanding Writing (Drama). Will it win any of them?
You can see the full list of Primetime Emmy nominations here. | N/A | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||
op7S0pjHgzF5CJQYXZL1 | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | singer | singer | 1,712,079,371,951 | 1,712,176,406,245 | Will I save $6500 by opening a traditional IRA in time for last year's taxes? | will-i-save-6500-by-opening-a-tradi | https://manifold.markets/singer/will-i-save-6500-by-opening-a-tradi | {
"NO": 194.8306291367319,
"YES": 195.16965821485115
} | 0.499152 | 0.499587 | 195 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12.191317 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,176,406,245 | 0.5 | 2 | 1,712,176,406,245 | 1,712,081,285,074 | 1,712,086,770,496 | [
"finance"
] | I had opened a Roth IRA last year specifically so that I could deduct my contributions from my taxes for 2023. Yesterday I learned that with a Roth IRA you can't actually do this, and it only works for a traditional IRA. I have a meeting with my financial adviser tomorrow.
Resolution criteria:
This market resolves YES if I have managed to open a traditional IRA and transfer my funds to it before April 15th, and got the maximum amount ($6500 afaict) deducted on my taxes for last year. It resolves NO otherwise.
I won't be betting in this market. | N/A | D6J4rACLVqSmn0S610IZwB0vSYa2 | null |
|
fk98eXBeqT9v60kr1G3p | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,357,284,237 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,704,063,540,000 | Economy 2023: US Unemployment rate below 5.0%? | economy-2023-us-unemployment-rate-b | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/economy-2023-us-unemployment-rate-b | {
"NO": 1764.945472793246,
"YES": 85.7317928368164
} | 0.97797 | 0.683176 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,620.08078 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,462,734,318 | 0.98 | 13 | 1,704,462,740,650 | 1,702,074,171,969 | 1,704,462,739,679 | [
"2023-matt-yglesias-predictions",
"ancient-markets",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
[image]
| N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |
fd7gpNFAuikErYqIKUD4 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,183,295,331 | 1,700,262,000,000 | Will SOL close higher on November 17 than it closed on November 16? | will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1-590dada578eb | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1-590dada578eb | {
"NO": 74.1233487616341,
"YES": 263.63709725633413
} | 0.214405 | 0.492567 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 289.6018 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,270,057,157 | 0.21 | 8 | 1,700,270,049,738 | 1,700,261,482,850 | 1,700,270,049,212 | [
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel
Previous Close: $57.86
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | null | null |
|
80aDGHr0LH5YBNCfOTXg | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,680,634,643,653 | 1,681,006,141,326 | Will Cynthia Calvillo beat Lupita Godinez at UFC 287? | will-cynthia-calvillo-beat-lupita-g | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-cynthia-calvillo-beat-lupita-g | {
"NO": 20.108074599681217,
"YES": 1106.0226106190676
} | 0.005587 | 0.236085 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,026.875198 | 0 | true | NO | 1,681,006,141,326 | 0.01 | 3 | 1,681,000,507,400 | 1,681,000,419,632 | 1,681,000,505,464 | [
"combat-sports",
"ufc",
"mma"
] | Cynthia and Lupita are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida.
If Cynthia wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Lupita wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | ||
iwNlN7c4sLoDOKtPmz84 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,679,684,726,914 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,680,193,179,063 | Will Vaush's video "Ana Kasparian's Awful Trans Twitter Take" reach 120k views by 3/30 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-ana-kasparians-aw | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-ana-kasparians-aw | {
"NO": 14.947261303948835,
"YES": 10746.416789997817
} | 0.000648 | 0.317798 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,698.095415 | 0 | true | NO | 1,680,193,179,063 | 0 | 9 | 1,710,218,598,330 | 1,680,193,174,906 | -1 | [
"destinygg",
"trans-questions",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/UBFgqjQ2Tyo
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders. | N/A | null | |
PQO6hJVaFI3jzUjYMvXI | SdXTLsml5wQxsyUC6E30bUbUMQj2 | bamarc | Marc | 1,705,435,877,642 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIBJClgheJBu-wO7pREFzIXkBILcrfg6xHDjHAVUIB3=s96-c | 1,716,138,430,448 | Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 Premier League? | will-manchester-city-win-the-202320 | https://manifold.markets/bamarc/will-manchester-city-win-the-202320 | {
"NO": 4120.11702678394,
"YES": 63.01553250108948
} | 0.98701 | 0.537492 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 24,449.099384 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,138,430,448 | 0.99 | 42 | 1,716,138,430,448 | 1,716,138,294,689 | 1,713,145,681,799 | [
"premiere-league",
"football",
"sports-default",
"soccer"
] | Resolves to yes if it wins and no if it doesn't. | N/A | SdXTLsml5wQxsyUC6E30bUbUMQj2 | |
P9g5MidwLK10iBwqa4B7 | HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2 | Mvem | Mvem | 1,674,318,023,067 | 1,675,864,813,524 | Will LeBron James break the regular season all time scoring record before the all star break? | will-lebron-james-break-the-regular | https://manifold.markets/Mvem/will-lebron-james-break-the-regular | {
"NO": 2133.3293209342114,
"YES": 44.37948034340093
} | 0.995584 | 0.824261 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,846.670679 | 0 | true | YES | 1,675,864,813,524 | 1 | 4 | 1,675,864,795,232 | 1,675,864,794,043 | 1,675,403,335,013 | [
"sports-default"
] | The NBA currently projects LeBron will break the all time regular season scoring record before the all star break and plans to use it to honor him, according to this tweet:
[tweet]LeBron currently has 38,127 points compared to the current record of 38,387. With 13 Lakers games left before the break, LeBron must average greater than 20 points per game to break the record.
This market resolves YES if LeBron has strictly greater than 38,387 career regular season points before the all-star break (February 16). I will use this source for resolution https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/pts_career.html | N/A | null | ||
7TJmgbFHlD4HpGFao5C6 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,117,689,965 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,678,695,063,595 | Will Vaush's video "Lori Lightfoot's Horrible Loss For The Left" reach 50k views or more by 3/13 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-lori-lightfoots-h | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-lori-lightfoots-h | {
"NO": 11153.454545454546,
"YES": 2.383515574223565
} | 0.999824 | 0.548622 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,053 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,695,063,595 | 1 | 4 | 1,678,695,060,018 | 1,678,695,059,888 | -1 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/0pumCONL5S8
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
niVbua4JWJv208J62681 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,708,238,394,286 | 1,709,917,461,488 | The New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two negative reviews. Will the New Yorker give "Dune: Part Two" a positive review? | the-new-yorker-gave-dune-2021-two-n | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/the-new-yorker-gave-dune-2021-two-n | {
"NO": 73.67548470718117,
"YES": 6999.468994223238
} | 0.008914 | 0.46077 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,397.980474 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,917,461,488 | 0.01 | 35 | 1,709,917,462,264 | 1,709,917,392,741 | 1,709,917,448,666 | [
"entertainment",
"dune",
"movies",
"culture-default",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720"
] | Context: According to Rotten Tomatoes, the New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two different negative (i.e. rotten) reviews.
Richard Brody:
The movie's stripped-down material world correlates with a stripped-down emotional one-narrow, facile, and unambiguous.
Anthony Lane:
One's eye is at first dazzled, then sated, and eventually tired by this pitiless inflation of scale.
Resolution details:
Rotten Tomatoes will be the source to determine whether the review is positive, as well as what qualifies as a "review by the New Yorker": https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two
I will check Rotten Tomatoes one week after release.
If there is any positive ("fresh") review logged for the New Yorker, this resolves YES.
If there are only negative reviews, it resolves NO.
If no review has been logged by the New Yorker, I will wait until the first review is logged, and resolve it YES if that review is positive & NO if that review is negative.
If Rotten Tomatoes does not show any New Yorker review after one month, I will resolve it N/A.
Note: for "Dune" (2021), there were two reviews that qualify, but I have no idea what they'll release this time (and there only needs to be one positive review to resolve this yes).
If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask. | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | ||
vdPq4pI64jcOmYVpZH1d | mceW6RagJMfIZFKlOEpis65g9Mb2 | Awex | Awex | 1,701,406,342,437 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIEJSiCXiS_kZhfU5yXKmqFem_U5QpZW21S2Qrt9yAVdXM=s96-c | 1,701,450,189,363 | Will India 🇮🇳 win the 4th game of the 5 match t20 series against Australia 🇦🇺 on the 1st of December? | will-india-win-the-4th-game-of-the | https://manifold.markets/Awex/will-india-win-the-4th-game-of-the | {
"NO": 350.00000000000097,
"YES": 7.142857142857153
} | 0.98 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,166.966859 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,450,189,363 | 0.98 | 3 | 1,701,449,695,977 | 1,701,449,695,837 | -1 | [
"cricket-trades",
"cricket",
"cricket-world-cup-2023"
] | Currently 2-1 to India | N/A | null | |
yLT9pJ4qansgcZhBHEiT | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,827,137,231 | 1,699,916,400,000 | Will XLM close higher on November 13 than it closed on November 12? | will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-1-b6d56375e496 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-1-b6d56375e496 | {
"NO": 111.18839699126838,
"YES": 367.79299137023037
} | 0.16376 | 0.393119 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 688.550025 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,922,970,622 | 0.16 | 10 | 1,699,922,967,090 | 1,699,916,246,108 | 1,699,922,965,461 | [
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah",
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD
Previous Close: $0.1245
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
CA3iFhmJTPlu3oHrDh7J | W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03 | FrederickNorris | Frederick Norris | 1,696,366,353,493 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c | 1,697,581,728,075 | Will Kevin McCarthy be renominated to the office of Speaker of the House after losing the office? | will-kevin-mccarthy-be-renominated | https://manifold.markets/FrederickNorris/will-kevin-mccarthy-be-renominated | {
"NO": 1197.1930913528467,
"YES": 17468.565688094026
} | 0.016968 | 0.201192 | 2,245 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 77,352.222909 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,581,743,750 | 0.02 | 326 | 1,697,661,307,855 | 1,697,580,964,153 | 1,697,661,307,132 | [
"speaker-of-the-house-election",
"118th-congress",
"us-politics"
] | Doesn't have to win, or even get any votes. But someone has to nominate him. | N/A | null | null |
v3GQw7hkanOs0fJ0M7SS | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,674,325,415,521 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will the US issue perpetual bonds in 2023? | will-the-us-issue-perpetual-bonds-i | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-issue-perpetual-bonds-i | {
"NO": 96.68549141352534,
"YES": 886.5936617860756
} | 0.014587 | 0.119518 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 801.033953 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,136,575,686 | 0.01 | 7 | 1,704,136,575,937 | 1,685,322,929,367 | 1,684,236,069,672 | [
"us-politics",
"economics-default",
"mint-the-coin",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | One workaround the US government could take to circumvent the debt ceiling is to issue perpetual bonds (aka consols) - bonds that have no guarantee to repay the principal at a fixed date, instead they pay interest until whatever time the government chooses to repay them.
Because there is no obligation to repay the principal, such bonds do not count against the debt ceiling.
For background, see https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/09/debt-ceiling-modest-proposal.html or the last section of https://www.vox.com/22711346/trillion-dollar-coin-mintthecoin-debt-ceiling-beowulf.
Resolves YES if the US issues perpetual bonds in 2023, otherwise NO.
For the purposes of this market, "bond" will include any debt instrument that is functionally a bond; what the Treasury names it doesn't matter - e.g. T-bills, T-notes, or T-bonds all count as bonds.
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-issue-premium-bonds-in)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-mint-a-trilliondollar-p) | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | ||
wpJnhqfoWXOz3fp3NNMt | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | jskf | jskf | 1,692,812,407,543 | 1,703,329,769,532 | Conditional on Prigozhin plane crash being confirmed, will it be confirmed that it was caused by sabotage? by 2024 | conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras-92fdaeeeb5a1 | https://manifold.markets/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras-92fdaeeeb5a1 | {
"NO": 3511.2376620575064,
"YES": 442.92927422535104
} | 0.933118 | 0.637674 | 1,065 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,344.673358 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,783,756,066 | 0.93 | 70 | 1,703,784,780,666 | 1,703,299,525,617 | 1,703,784,774,594 | [
"russia",
"ukrainerussia-war",
"wars",
"yevgeney-prigozhin",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | (being shot down would also count)
"plane crash being confirmed" = Prigozhin was on board, the plane actually crashed, he died.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jskf/conditional-on-prigozhin-plane-cras) | N/A | cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2 | ||
3ic4dtcwWikZEsWCQK4a | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,669,072,988,964 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,680,386,340,000 | Will Turkey ratify Sweden's accession to NATO by April 1, 2023? | will-turkey-ratify-swedens-accessio | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-turkey-ratify-swedens-accessio | {
"NO": 266.79587683175345,
"YES": 7714.670626496156
} | 0.004717 | 0.120523 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,537.462197 | 0 | true | NO | 1,680,430,994,234 | 0 | 24 | 1,680,385,528,667 | 1,680,385,528,511 | 1,669,112,360,769 | [
"turkey",
"nato",
"sweden"
] | On 5 July 2022, NATO signed the accession protocol for Sweden to join the alliance. However, all member countries must formally approve (ratify) such accession. Turkey and Hungary are the last to do so, delaying approval for various reasons.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden%E2%80%93NATO_relations#Ratification_process | N/A | null | |
LUNu71va2rJ1b6s7pIIn | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,692,171,800,704 | 1,695,190,424,862 | Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 20th September be below 7%? | will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-6cea07b25028 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-6cea07b25028 | {
"NO": 47389.32738293204,
"YES": 137.90829002919781
} | 0.999194 | 0.783055 | 530 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 50,227.426321 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,190,424,862 | 1 | 29 | 1,695,190,640,180 | 1,695,190,418,659 | 1,695,190,639,531 | [
"economics-default",
"uk-politics",
"inflation",
"uk",
"finance"
] | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 20th September.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - 6.8%
September 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%) | N/A | null | null |
|
TD8eBPLkuLYnwzJtUzIs | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | Eliza | Eliza | 1,706,506,138,754 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 1,706,772,193,674 | Will Metaculus "Will Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 election?" go public trading higher than Manifold? | metaculus-will-donald-trump-be-conv | https://manifold.markets/Eliza/metaculus-will-donald-trump-be-conv | {
"NO": 35.4375543512615,
"YES": 11281.564940382272
} | 0.001367 | 0.303492 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,144.810417 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,772,193,674 | 0 | 9 | 1,710,219,626,016 | 1,706,772,186,363 | 1,706,772,199,849 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"metaculus"
] | This Metaculus market:
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Is currently open for predicting, with the value hidden from view.
At the instant that prediction value becomes public, will it be higher than the probability on:
@/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
, the MirrorBot copy of the same market on Manifold?
If they both show the same number, rounded to an integer, then this resolves No. If Metaculus is lower, resolves No. If Metaculus is higher, resolves Yes. | N/A | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | |
OeJ8O6d9UuIy3IyjUNw8 | oaSkKMqGTHhYenl7qcVhXe20dNg2 | errorerror | deleted account | 1,690,308,778,119 | 1,690,550,940,000 | Will Schalke 04 win their first 2. Bundesliga Game? (28.07) | will-schalke-04-win-their-first-2-b | https://manifold.markets/errorerror/will-schalke-04-win-their-first-2-b | {
"NO": 224.9001925091882,
"YES": 277.3617421067533
} | 0.406043 | 0.457433 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 255.176322 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,582,675,985 | 0.41 | 12 | 1,690,544,713,718 | 1,690,544,713,549 | -1 | [] | Will Schalke 04 win their first 2. Bundesliga Game? (28.07) | N/A | null | null |
|
oPz5lCeoZ6ZzMdGdhY1s | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | Eliza | Eliza | 1,706,678,362,635 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 1,712,949,148,093 | Will Kayla Harrison successfully weigh in for the Womens Bantamweight division for her fight at UFC 300? | will-kayla-harrison-successfully-we | https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-kayla-harrison-successfully-we | {
"NO": 1817.0371195245334,
"YES": 28.896908798197842
} | 0.99 | 0.611564 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,834.523485 | 0 | true | YES | 1,712,949,148,093 | 0.99 | 9 | 1,712,954,626,200 | 1,712,949,123,200 | 1,712,954,624,777 | [
"ufc",
"sports-default",
"ufc-300",
"combat-sports"
] | The UFC has announced Kayla Harrison will fight Holly Holm at UFC 300, in the Womens Bantamweight division. Since this is a non-title fight, the actual weight limit for the weigh-in should be 136 pounds rather than 135 pounds.
If Harrison makes the weight limit for the bout in the Womens Bantamweight division, resolves Yes.
If Harrison fails to make the weight limit, or the bout happens, but is adjusted to a different weight class, resolves No.
The scheduled date of the event is 13 April 2024. I would expect the weigh-in to be one day before on 12 April 2024. If the fight is canceled or postponed on or before 1 April 2024 (US Pacific time, Las Vegas time), this question resolves N/A. If the fight is canceled or postponed on or after 2 April 2024, the question will resolve No. The specific reason for this deviation from "N/A if the fight doesn't happen", is that missing weight or knowing you will miss weight is a common reason for a bout to be rescheduled or canceled. So if the bout is changed after 2 April 2024, the question is going to resolve No.
Ask any clarifying questions you wish in the comments.
Clarification: If she requires an additional weigh-in or some other exception arises, we will base the resolution on the official designation of the bout as a Womens Bantamweight bout, rather than "Catchweight" or some other result.
Some related markets:
@/Eliza/what-will-be-true-of-the-main-event
@/CarolineWall/what-fights-will-be-added-to-the-uf | N/A | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | null |
vnSyNl205yJ9iC0GzqkM | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,712,194,511,439 | 1,713,029,335,150 | Will this 1916 Babe Ruth Rookie Card sell for >$500,000 at its upcoming Bonhams auction? (pic included) | will-this-1916-babe-ruth-rookie-car | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-this-1916-babe-ruth-rookie-car | {
"NO": 5662.91634406657,
"YES": 71.69517603437764
} | 0.99617 | 0.767063 | 300 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,223.28844 | 0 | true | YES | 1,713,029,335,150 | 1 | 16 | 1,713,029,335,150 | 1,712,894,555,615 | 1,713,029,324,378 | [
"sports-default",
"economics-default",
"arts",
"celebrities",
"entertainment",
"mlb",
"baseball",
"culture-default"
] | The Bonhams auction house is currently holding an auction for the following rare baseball card:
A BABE RUTH M101-4 1916 ROOKIE CARD #151 PSA EX 5, WITH GIMBELS INK STAMP ON THE VERSO [link]
Bonhams gave it an estimated value of US$250,000 - US$500,000. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Bonhams website is >$500,000.
Resolution details:
Example from a past auction: the "THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS ANNOUNCES AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE" document is listed as "Sold for US$127,500 inc. premium". This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, note that the final listed sale price typically lists the additional buyer's premium.
If the painting is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price during this auction of >$500,000.
Card details:
[image]Encapsulated by PSA and graded 5 (83747279).
In Chicago, baseball card publisher Felix Mendelsohn produced what we now call the M101-4 set, a collection of 200 baseball cards featuring the top players of the day, with the cards featuring black and white photography instead of the color lithography formerly in use.
In April of 1916 Gimbels Department Store launched a promotional campaign advertising a free giveaway of 20 baseball cards to kids who came in person to the Boy's Clothing Section (Sportscollectordaily.com, March 21, 2015).
Babe Ruth still holds the Major League record for slugging percentage, with 0.69.
For more auctions, check out the dashboard. | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
BhdGuV9RfE20yhI4cQN4 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,701,880,803,019 | 1,701,966,600,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 7th December than it closed on 6th December? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-2941ba3c046c | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-2941ba3c046c | {
"NO": 306.72529420362275,
"YES": 101.53784565769121
} | 0.728583 | 0.470515 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,760.256676 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,971,534,473 | 0.73 | 11 | 1,710,462,489,183 | 1,701,966,595,102 | 1,701,971,979,135 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"sccsq4",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 7th December than it did on Wednesday 6th December?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | ||
wPCFgrv3w2h6Nca4bSxG | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,687,329,469,573 | 1,689,748,268,873 | Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 19th July be below 8%? | will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-768da41aa77c | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-768da41aa77c | {
"NO": 1443.1018139518403,
"YES": 4.525561554382811
} | 0.99535 | 0.401666 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,801.768655 | 0 | true | YES | 1,689,748,268,873 | 1 | 13 | 1,689,752,396,947 | 1,689,748,184,040 | 1,689,752,395,110 | [
"economics-default"
] | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday 19th July.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 8.0%) | N/A | null | null |
|
zZVjNe3YwUzUk0KXArsm | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,259,311,788 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,677,863,241,553 | Will Destiny's video "OnlyFans Contracts Are Exploitative - Destiny Talks w/ Eva Lovia About The Adult Industry" reach 60k views or more by 3/03 9 A.M. PST? | will-destinys-video-onlyfans-contra | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-onlyfans-contra | {
"NO": 11.52949244582851,
"YES": 11337.095807734151
} | 0.000478 | 0.319734 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,940.423026 | 0 | true | NO | 1,677,863,241,553 | 0 | 13 | 1,710,218,633,578 | 1,677,863,229,557 | 1,677,835,770,328 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/uvE5qAB4uZQ
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
w0DZw3iYiAYtKuaZIRc4 | zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03 | CquilPromp | Cquil Promp | 1,691,526,936,395 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c | 1,691,607,600,000 | Will the temperature in Central Park August 9th at 3:51pm be in the 81-83° range? | will-the-temperature-in-central-par | https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par | {
"NO": 257.8673272059923,
"YES": 475.73129410882325
} | 0.25 | 0.380788 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,282.923681 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,611,876,058 | 0.25 | 20 | 1,691,610,930,284 | 1,691,607,471,794 | 1,691,610,928,247 | [
"climate",
"weather",
"new-york"
] | Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 81-83° range (27.1-28.4°C) at 3:51pm (15:51) on Aug 9, 2023 ?
Question closes 3:00pm ET
Resolves according to:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
| N/A | null | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FqPBQgJpCqL.ug8-w?alt=media&token=78e48e24-8e45-4d3b-89b9-f73ec277e755 |
a892V7mW8aHv0gwWw0Jc | bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52 | GoncaloM | Gonçalo M | 1,690,196,111,550 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c | 1,690,577,599,445 | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $460 per share on July 28, 2023? | will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-f27e1efaf87a | https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-f27e1efaf87a | {
"NO": 4747.447360406952,
"YES": 148.1087643634255
} | 0.982622 | 0.638213 | 570 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,252.417216 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,577,617,553 | 0.98 | 29 | 1,690,575,764,942 | 1,690,575,764,823 | 1,690,574,984,888 | [
"finance",
"technology-default",
"stocks",
"tech-stocks"
] | Weekly prediction on how Nvidia stock will perform
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 28 of July 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
6clkJPd9BeoiM6kGQrcH | LUac8BjhWzczzdzCLFy6uoo5soc2 | srn | srn | 1,689,198,303,268 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte-JaS5zZVDzUQbYZhKzawNZWwlfeIoLInn7zTAK_r09nY=s96-c | 1,689,314,460,000 | Will META's weight in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) index increase above 5% as a result of the July 2023 Special Rebalance? | will-metas-weight-in-the-nasdaq100 | https://manifold.markets/srn/will-metas-weight-in-the-nasdaq100 | {
"NO": 67.80290454893732,
"YES": 71.66666666666669
} | 0.508041 | 0.521883 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | NO | 1,689,899,109,860 | 0.51 | 2 | 1,689,899,104,483 | 1,689,207,983,311 | 1,689,899,101,058 | [
"finance",
"economics-default"
] | The Nasdaq-100 is undergoing a Special Rebalance to adjust the weights of those issuers which had an initial weight of 4.5% or higher "based on the index securities and shares outstanding as of July 3, 2023" in order to prevent those securities from collectively constituting 48% or more of the index.
The Special Rebalance was announced at https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/the-nasdaq-100-index-special-rebalance-to-be-effective-july-24-2023-2023-07-07 and covered by (among other sources):
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/what-is-nasdaqs-special-rebalancing-its-impact-2023-07-11/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-12/it-s-easy-to-make-oil-companies-esg
Matt Levine observes that the published Index Methodology defines the aggregate final weight of the issuers with initial weights above 4.5%, but does not define how the adjustments will be distributed within that group or among other issuers. As of July 3rd, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL & GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) were above the 4.5% weight threshold. Meta (META) was at 4.20%. Levine calculates that, if the adjustments were performed pro-rata, META would rise to 5.1% of the index. Will this occur?
The announcement indicates that "the index share announcements and pro-forma file release will take place July 14, 2023", and that the Special Rebalance will be "effective prior to the market open on Monday, July 24, 2023". | N/A | null | null |
YyTvjQIMEzyvXonpFp6n | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,700,420,860,847 | 1,700,976,147,791 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Wyoming beat Nevada? | -2023-ncaaf-will-wyoming-beat-nevad | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-wyoming-beat-nevad | {
"NO": 8417.587538813836,
"YES": 15.877482381973095
} | 0.999253 | 0.716287 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,418.751591 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,976,147,791 | 1 | 7 | 1,700,976,140,037 | 1,700,976,139,881 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"mountain-west-conference"
] | 2023-11-25 at 9 PM ET in Reno, NV.
Head-to-head:
Overall: Wyoming 5, Nevada 4, Tie 0
Last 5: Wyoming 3, Nevada 2, Tie 0 | N/A | null | ||
R96kPMnamweHGMcxiPqI | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,711,542,435,010 | 1,712,350,137,423 | Will Nasdaq increase by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024? | will-nasdaq-increase-by-over-100-on | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-nasdaq-increase-by-over-100-on | {
"NO": 3321.8163610499173,
"YES": 41.04195138308296
} | 0.993438 | 0.651626 | 220 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,195.10739 | 0 | true | YES | 1,712,350,137,423 | 0.81 | 7 | 1,712,350,137,423 | 1,712,350,128,973 | 1,712,350,040,245 | [
"stocks",
"nasdaq"
] | Will Nasdaq increase by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?
Market Information:
The official source used is *Google Finance
Nasdaq
Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC
Resolving:
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Note: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.
| N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
EskXu6xkfCliOTxRTsly | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | Base | Base | 1,692,104,324,080 | 1,692,533,925,164 | Will Hinata Miyazawa (JAP) be the top scorer at the 2023 Women's World Cup? | will-hinata-miyazawa-jap-be-the-top | https://manifold.markets/Base/will-hinata-miyazawa-jap-be-the-top | {
"NO": 6360.858055980627,
"YES": 53.356514260727636
} | 0.996729 | 0.71879 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,200.09438 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,533,927,569 | 1 | 15 | 1,692,533,468,002 | 1,692,533,467,891 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"2023-womens-world-cup",
"soccer",
"spain",
"japan",
"football"
] | If Hinata Miyazawa scores the most Goals in the Womans World Cup this Market Resolves Yes if someone scores the same or more goals the market resolves no | N/A | null | null |
|
WDcBVhpCURJbrkaSTmYX | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,706,390,040,071 | 1,706,523,600,000 | Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-29 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-1aa88128df81 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-1aa88128df81 | {
"NO": 82.69988215660706,
"YES": 149.99999999999997
} | 0.072986 | 0.124959 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 60 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,594,605,396 | 0.07 | 3 | 1,706,594,605,663 | 1,706,523,521,579 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-29 10:20 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 12:20 (UTC)
04:20 (Los Angeles)
07:20 (New York)
13:20 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
GAZGZ8VVD9f5XR8VpABA | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,685,466,057,896 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,686,193,411,223 | Will the #1 Denver Nuggets win Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals against the #8 Miami Heat? | will-the-1-denver-nuggets-win-game-00138f18c9d2 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-1-denver-nuggets-win-game-00138f18c9d2 | {
"NO": 17804.419272409403,
"YES": 62.858993906076876
} | 0.997519 | 0.586675 | 750 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 34,328.247003 | 0 | true | YES | 1,686,193,429,074 | 1 | 40 | 1,686,193,216,980 | 1,686,193,216,844 | 1,686,192,496,454 | [
"sports-default"
] | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544848
[link preview]Additional markets:
[markets] | N/A | null | |
T57tzcojfiw8Lfkg3g6C | QzlohWbLKzU5hJgThcVzVIi657E3 | chrisbauer | CBxb229 | 1,698,760,468,222 | 1,711,767,269,275 | Will the Clippers win 46 or more games in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season? | will-the-clippers-win-46-or-more-ga | https://manifold.markets/chrisbauer/will-the-clippers-win-46-or-more-ga | {
"NO": 4051.592394797126,
"YES": 74.44766211334274
} | 0.993028 | 0.723544 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,029.067968 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,767,269,275 | 0.99 | 12 | 1,711,767,269,275 | 1,711,767,146,096 | 1,711,767,143,825 | [
"basketball",
"nba"
] | N/A | BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3 | null |
||
8wA4du5kHHGwrRnBQzLL | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,136,192,227 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,677,379,044,388 | Will Destiny's video "Rad Feminist Instantly Quits Debate After Hearing Destiny's Logic" reach 180k views or more by 3/01 9 A.M.? | will-destinys-video-rad-feminist-in-6cfcc17fa5b9 | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-rad-feminist-in-6cfcc17fa5b9 | {
"NO": 10839.652860335063,
"YES": 9.336206714860964
} | 0.999569 | 0.666636 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,861.62714 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,379,044,388 | 1 | 5 | 1,710,218,522,592 | 1,677,379,040,901 | 1,677,359,877,392 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/YxjMYB0rkfQ
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
aICEyIIA2m24MlcA1FBc | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,695,486,391,168 | 1,695,509,835,076 | 2023 NCAAF: Will Maryland beat Michigan State? | 2023-ncaaf-will-maryland-beat-michi | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/2023-ncaaf-will-maryland-beat-michi | {
"NO": 10282.584770244364,
"YES": 33.05501921611267
} | 0.998771 | 0.723225 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,493.343778 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,509,835,076 | 1 | 10 | 1,695,509,734,660 | 1,695,509,734,538 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"college-football",
"big-ten"
] | 2023-09-23 at 3:30 PM ET in East Lansing, MI. Current line is Michigan St +7. | N/A | null | ||
jhQbkHa0TPoU5KR67rD7 | dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1 | duck_master | duck_master | 1,705,620,769,022 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fduck_master%2Flove-images%2F0P82jd00Lc.59?alt=media&token=eb4ef3fd-c16c-4725-a772-3879a67385a6 | 1,705,727,514,803 | Will Newton's teachers strike by the 22nd? | will-newtons-teachers-strike-by-the | https://manifold.markets/duck_master/will-newtons-teachers-strike-by-the | {
"NO": 136.2443511849015,
"YES": 92.71978477354997
} | 0.686591 | 0.598535 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 58.872487 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,727,514,803 | 0.69 | 6 | 1,710,462,514,048 | 1,705,690,405,787 | 1,706,245,293,514 | [
"education",
"strikes",
"massachusetts",
"short-fuse",
"teaching"
] | Newton, Massachusetts's teachers are contemplating a strike (see for example https://figcitynews.com/2024/01/parents-rally-for-teachers-as-possible-strike-looms/). Will they do it?
Resolves YES if either the Newton Teachers Association announces that a strike begins before or on Monday, January 22, or at least 10 teachers who teach in Newton, Massachusetts go on strike before end of day on January 22. If neither happens, it resolves NO. (I added extra days because teachers usually take the weekends off; so even though it might happen or be decided on this Friday as the news articles suggest, a strike might take until Monday to come into effect.)
EDIT: grammar | N/A | dYcBw4yTOccJC3Q6qpb0KklYW7z1 | |
EkMACugSWDI9Ifcl0XHh | SXkPkdIew6WpUSIWhkwpvM7w0b62 | LightningBee | Lightning Bee ⚡ 🐝 | 1,700,169,237,937 | 1,703,373,244,322 | Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price reach $600 in 2023? | will-microstrategy-mstr-stock-price-53279f251fb5 | https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-microstrategy-mstr-stock-price-53279f251fb5 | {
"NO": 5908.478531618535,
"YES": 25.385167763675778
} | 0.998925 | 0.799646 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,054.784417 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,373,244,322 | 1 | 15 | 1,703,354,751,748 | 1,703,305,390,390 | 1,703,354,751,243 | [
"crypto-prices",
"stocks",
"finance",
"technology-default",
"bitcoin-maxi",
"bitcoin",
"crypto-speculation",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | MicroStrategy is an American corporation specializing in business intelligence analytics. In recent years, it has become notable for investing a significant portion of its capital into Bitcoin, viewing it as a store of value and considering this investment their main long term strategy.
Will MSTR stock price reach $600 in 2023?
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/
[image] | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
SjdSYYBDmTXNepHIgSdu | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,682,892,588,191 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,683,244,079,681 | Biden vs Trump (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of Ṁ10k per) | biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-limit-o-78369f5f7879 | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-limit-o-78369f5f7879 | {
"NO": 10133.009533516664,
"YES": 1.690913704025661
} | 0.999846 | 0.520452 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,029 | 0 | true | YES | 1,683,244,079,681 | 1 | 4 | 1,683,244,075,689 | 1,683,244,075,524 | 1,682,991,787,218 | [
"gambling",
"whale-watching",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"fun"
] | Yes = Biden
No = Trump
I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.
Rules
The largest single limit order you can put down is Ṁ10k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:
Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a Ṁ100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.
Prevent whales from putting down multiple Ṁ10k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.
Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.
Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a Ṁ50k or Ṁ100k limit order and automatically win.
If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.
After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.
Market closes on 5/3/23 9 A.M. PST | N/A | null | null |
hRJXO3R8f5xiykCvo3os | fAsHgJqeXyPJxTvybQdkpyXH3hG2 | sarius | sarius | 1,691,680,353,167 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5OEwli91yrMjAQuMBTHhcrSxQph8Kv5QKWuDCUqg=s96-c | 1,699,504,514,923 | Will the debate between Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom actually happen on or before Nov. 8th? | will-the-debate-between-ron-desanti | https://manifold.markets/sarius/will-the-debate-between-ron-desanti | {
"NO": 41.1452361656377,
"YES": 9510.642205033195
} | 0.002282 | 0.345863 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,146.777027 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,504,514,923 | 0 | 16 | 1,699,504,500,126 | 1,699,504,499,998 | 1,695,668,946,861 | [
"politics-default",
"donald-trump",
"us-politics",
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | The question resolves as "true" if a live, televised at least 60 minute long debate between Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom actually takes place before or on Nov. 8th, 2023.
Background: DeSantis and Newsom have agreed to debate but are fighting over the debate format, venue and date. Nov. 8th is the only date offered by both camps. | N/A | null | null |
3SFecr52DTVn5K5BDZzk | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | Joshua | Joshua | 1,707,756,918,268 | 1,709,327,545,607 | Will Sam Altman tweet or say the name Roon again before March? | will-sam-altman-tweet-or-say-the-na | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-sam-altman-tweet-or-say-the-na | {
"NO": 190.29672453637886,
"YES": 6528.9873673488055
} | 0.008684 | 0.231098 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,623.376254 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,327,545,607 | 0.01 | 23 | 1,709,327,546,581 | 1,709,317,385,353 | 1,709,327,518,105 | [
"sam-altman"
] | Any public post, repost, or video of him saying "Roon" will count.
Context:
[tweet](https://manifold.markets/embed/ZviMowshowitz/is-sam-altman-roon) | N/A | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | ||
iniiXgIR78M6i1kUzseD | xu6BIDLCFSaSPFhxDGppn69dTCB2 | Caterpidgey | Caterpidgey | 1,708,369,553,986 | 1,708,903,005,203 | Will the number of Bolsonaro supporters attending the rally on 02/25 significantly decrease compared to before 01/08/23? | will-the-number-of-bolsonaro-suppor | https://manifold.markets/Caterpidgey/will-the-number-of-bolsonaro-suppor | {
"NO": 54.615722619214914,
"YES": 855.6558230746499
} | 0.048124 | 0.441984 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,335.867268 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,903,005,203 | 0.05 | 13 | 1,708,903,005,709 | 1,708,893,575,509 | 1,708,902,993,218 | [
"politics-default",
"bolsonaro",
"brazil-3292d24d179f"
] | Brazil's former president, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently under investigation for his role in an attempted coup d'état on January 8th 2023. A rally supporting Bolsonaro is set to occur on February 25th at Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo, and this is the first time he has personally convoked his supporters to take the streets since the 2023 Congress Attack.
Rallies in favour of Jair Bolsonaro took place in various capitals in Brazil in the second half of 2023 but failed to gather more than a couple hundred people. However, this time relevant political figures have already confirmed their presence, including dozens of congressmen and senators. Besides more than a hundred politicians attending, Bolsonaro is openly engaging his supporters.
Before 01/08/2023, rallies supporting Jair gathered over 100 thousand people in the streets. It is hard to judge how the recent investigation will impact the public attendance to the act of 02/25/2024.
This market will resolve to YES if less than 50k people attend the rally supporting Jair Bolsonaro, NO if more than 50k attend. It resolves N/A if, for whatever reason, the event does not take place. If the reported number is exactly or very close to 50k, the market resolves to YES if Brazilian and international media outlets generally report the event as a failure, NO otherwise.
Some references:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/world/americas/brazil-police-raid-bolsonaro-attempted-coup-investigation.html
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/ex-president-bolsonaro-calls-for-demonstrations-as-possible-arrest-draws-closer | N/A | xu6BIDLCFSaSPFhxDGppn69dTCB2 | ||
fGuyzITnBLEKPwisqzlE | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,687,927,603 | 1,707,905,700,000 | Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-e2a7a89371d6 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-e2a7a89371d6 | {
"NO": 93.88947451796938,
"YES": 236.1538461538462
} | 0.059739 | 0.137785 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 262 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,943,682,404 | 0.06 | 4 | 1,707,943,682,712 | 1,707,902,598,803 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-14 10:15 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-14 - 12:15 (UTC)
04:15 (Los Angeles)
07:15 (New York)
13:15 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
yA3XWsQx3IbugO85X48W | mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2 | BrendanTroadec | Brendan Troadec | 1,713,017,382,657 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4Dn8vdzoY2wtYBN7Xr8wrM3Axwoa4inUKshOUOPUBnrw=s96-c | 1,713,023,868,408 | Will Brentford beat Sheffield Utd during regular time on Tue, Apr 13, 2024?⚽ Premier league 🇬🇧 | will-brentford-beat-sheffield-utd-d | https://manifold.markets/BrendanTroadec/will-brentford-beat-sheffield-utd-d | {
"NO": 1485.4889404148646,
"YES": 35.72892165115104
} | 0.987031 | 0.646707 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,764.217724 | 0 | true | YES | 1,713,023,868,408 | 0.98 | 7 | 1,713,023,870,410 | 1,713,023,867,100 | -1 | [
"premiere-league",
"soccer",
"premier-league-20232024",
"uefa-champions-league"
] | What a day !
My other bet for this sunny day.
Will Burnley beat Brighton during regular time on Tue, Apr 13, 2024?
Will Man City beat Luton during regular time on Tue, Apr 13, 2024?
Will Forest beat Wolves during regular time on Tue, Apr 13, 2024?
Time to bet ! | N/A | mqx5cKiTKNY6m3VsR6Eiy2y4dGJ2 | null |
IBqF04yoH2jrn5RIJHOb | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,714,094,238,971 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,714,503,455,523 | [Metaculus] Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | metaculus-will-pedro-sanchez-announ | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-pedro-sanchez-announ | {
"NO": 201.56712498255956,
"YES": 5137.217512581497
} | 0.013405 | 0.257222 | 520 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 16,297.731019 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,503,455,523 | -1 | 22 | 1,714,503,455,523 | 1,714,454,276,231 | -1 | [
"metaculus",
"spain",
"politics-default"
] | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22633/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced his resignation. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
BUDHdAVrVRw8BMKCDQ7D | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | Gen | Genzy | 1,672,452,885,095 | 1,680,783,847,533 | Will Destiny lift sanctions on MrGirl at any time in 2023? | will-destiny-lift-sanctions-on-mrgi | https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-destiny-lift-sanctions-on-mrgi | {
"NO": 2887.244657630766,
"YES": 941.6149991203191
} | 0.871637 | 0.688915 | 1,390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,117.590974 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,783,847,533 | 0.87 | 70 | 1,680,811,233,729 | 1,680,780,482,623 | 1,680,811,229,459 | [
"destinygg",
"mr-girls-manifesto"
] | Resolves YES if any of the following occur:
Destiny announces the sanctions are lifted, or that he "doesn't care" if people talk to MrGirl
Does not count if he says it while in a conversation with a streamer who recently broke sanctions (see below)
Destiny has a conversation with MORE THAN ONE other streamer within a week of them talking to MrGirl - [EDIT 28/03/2023: must be on Destiny's stream as noted below]
For example, if <STREAMER> has a voice chat or IRL discussion with MrGirl on either <STREAMER>'s stream or MrGirls stream, and then has a voice chat or IRL appearance on Destiny's stream within 168 hours of that discussion. This would count as 1/2 for this conclusion.
If conversation between destiny and <STREAMER> concludes because destiny finds out they breached sanctions, this will NOT count toward 1/2 for this conclusion.
if Destiny finds out during their conversation that they breached sanctions and continues to discuss, they will only count as 1/2 here, and not satisfy the first resolution requirement stated above. Even if he explicitly says "I don't care" in that conversation.
2 occurrences before the end date any length apart will be accepted, but there must be 2 unique streamers (group call with 10 people who all broke sanctions will count, if >1 had significant interaction with MrGirl)
Destiny has a conversation with MrGirl directly, on Destiny's stream (MrGirl's or other platforms do not count, you must hear Max speak on Destiny's stream and he remain present for at least 5 minutes)
Will resolve no if
Resolution criteria as stated above are not met by the end date
MrGirl closes all social media and disappears for >14 days
MrGirl announces retirement from online content (14 day silence/waiting period to confirm)
MrGirl says he will never speak to or about Destiny or anyone in the orbit again (3 month waiting period to confirm)
MrGirl dies
MrGirl goes to prison
MrGirl is banned from twitter and has not streamed for 14 days | N/A | null | ||
RRmlPvPHWlCf4tqiu8qU | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,705,689,900,920 | 1,705,906,800,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-02af3d8982ce | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-02af3d8982ce | {
"NO": 68.44685148365342,
"YES": 79.99999999999999
} | 0.122615 | 0.140405 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,954,383,397 | 0.12 | 2 | 1,705,954,383,630 | 1,705,887,911,583 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-22 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-22 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
XeUTCYEkUpyaKlN9nSBQ | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,083,136,766 | 1,703,977,200,000 | Will XLM close higher on December 30 than it closed on December 29? | will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-3-5b9f6b3e31d3 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-3-5b9f6b3e31d3 | {
"NO": 1643.2891614799355,
"YES": 130.54007828677734
} | 0.976725 | 0.769246 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,913.874333 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,987,100,030 | 0.98 | 13 | 1,703,987,100,360 | 1,703,976,569,503 | 1,703,987,094,921 | [
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
uloD4IfDEMmCSFA4eZTA | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,679,287,704,011 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,679,846,400,000 | Will Vaush's video "Trump Is About To Get Arrẹsted" reach 180k views by 3/26 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-trump-is-about-to | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-trump-is-about-to | {
"NO": 49.04847466425546,
"YES": 2181.200188645018
} | 0.005801 | 0.206008 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,385.809498 | 0 | true | NO | 1,679,852,915,194 | 0.01 | 8 | 1,710,218,623,945 | 1,679,844,752,279 | 1,679,846,956,217 | [
"donald-trump",
"magaland",
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/H6WmWgrZoY0
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
JEjCKa6APMJHwKfAvgEx | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,679,195,460,328 | 1,681,005,885,278 | Will Gerald Meerschaert beat Joseph Pyfer at UFC 287? | will-gerald-meerschaert-beat-joseph | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-gerald-meerschaert-beat-joseph | {
"NO": 20.88204219009822,
"YES": 11434.859965827878
} | 0.000555 | 0.233243 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,589.127805 | 0 | true | NO | 1,681,005,885,278 | 0 | 9 | 1,681,005,875,941 | 1,681,005,875,709 | 1,681,001,538,845 | [
"sports-default",
"mma",
"mma-mixed-martial-arts"
] | Meerschaert and Pyfer are scheduled to fight on April 8th at UFC 287 in Miami, Florida.
If Meerschaert wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Pyfer wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | null |
|
rSn6g31iy1wVwFrFInvy | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,691,524,690,408 | 1,691,622,000,000 | Will XRP close higher on August 9 than it closed on August 8? | will-xrp-close-higher-on-august-9-t | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-august-9-t | {
"NO": 177.58175638838608,
"YES": 300.62024868261386
} | 0.434165 | 0.565014 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,658.527697 | 0 | true | YES | 1,691,626,376,494 | 0.43 | 15 | 1,691,626,336,381 | 1,691,621,849,664 | 1,691,626,334,338 | [
"economics-default",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"crypto-prices"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD
Previous Close: $0.6421
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
xY99tOlgLRY1UBVshzdV | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,685,799,628,535 | 1,685,932,592,299 | Which Team, The Denver Nuggets OR The Miami Heat Will Have The Highest Scorer On Their Team For Game 2 Of NBA Finals? | which-team-the-denver-nuggets-or-th | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/which-team-the-denver-nuggets-or-th | {
"NO": 35736.77958041327,
"YES": 21.806532824404712
} | 0.999742 | 0.703147 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 34,731.954664 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,932,592,299 | 1 | 14 | 1,685,932,575,752 | 1,685,932,483,006 | 1,685,932,573,509 | [
"sports-default",
"nba",
"basketball"
] | https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401544847
YES: A Denver Nuggets Player
NO: A Miami Heat Player
If 2 Opposing Players Score The Same Amount (A Tie) Than This Market Will Resolve To Whichever Team Wins The Game.
Closes ~3 Hours After Game Starts.
Will Resolve After Game Is Officially Completed.
Market May Extend If Overtime Is Played.
I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market But I Will Probably Eat Up Remaining Liquidity If Any Is Left On The Prediction Books.
| N/A | null | ||
LYLsPyhv0FsodPs3VGFp | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,691,014,097,371 | 1,691,352,283,178 | Will Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 at Evo 2023 be won by a former Evo MvC3 champion? | will-ultimate-marvel-vs-capcom-3-at | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ultimate-marvel-vs-capcom-3-at | {
"NO": 0.105171640356275,
"YES": 20085.714285714286
} | 0.000007 | 0.554501 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20,030 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,352,283,178 | 0 | 3 | 1,691,352,268,527 | 1,691,352,268,414 | -1 | [
"fighting-games",
"marvel",
"evolution-championship-series",
"gaming",
"fgc",
"esports",
"evo",
"competitive-gaming",
"capcom"
] | If Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 at Evolution 2023 is won by either Viscant, Filipino Champ, Flocker, Justin Wong, KaneBlueRiver, NYChrisG, or RyanLV, this question will resolve to YES.
If it is won by anyone else, this question will resolve to NO.
https://liquipedia.net/fighters/Evolution_Championship_Series/2023/UMVC3 | N/A | null | null |
|
yBMZUf8fxoefhzZ3a8eo | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | LarsDoucet | Lars Doucet | 1,642,299,096,225 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1,643,781,599,000 | Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow on Groundhog's Day, 2022? | will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-punxsutawney-phil-see-his-shad | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.854765 | 0.854765 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 563.929827 | 0 | true | YES | 1,643,940,059,739 | 0.854765 | 10 | 1,642,299,096,225 | -1 | 1,642,307,149,546 | [] | Punxsutawney Phil is the name of the Groundhog from Groundhog's day. Every year they bring him out, and legend is if he "see his shadow", then winter will continue for six more weeks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundhog_Day
So, when the men in fancy hats bring him out in February, will the little critter "see his shadow" (according to his handlers), or not?
#fun | N/A | null | null |
BDbWGpnckPOeFFxCB9uG | SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1 | Chocobo | Chocobo | 1,673,948,115,734 | 1,700,497,784,247 | Will Romania qualify for the 2024 UEFA Euro? | will-romania-qualify-for-the-2024-u | https://manifold.markets/Chocobo/will-romania-qualify-for-the-2024-u | {
"NO": 28354.36936432846,
"YES": 52.95748937605822
} | 0.99929 | 0.724439 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 29,112.319404 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,497,784,247 | 1 | 22 | 1,700,491,225,732 | 1,700,446,610,666 | 1,700,491,225,021 | [
"sports-default",
"uefa",
"euros-2024"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2024_qualifying_Group_I
https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/ | N/A | null | ||
4khnQ798DLBUG3Sq1yZo | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,702,484,377,064 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,702,848,338,403 | Will the Tennessee Titans beat the Houston Texans in their Week 15 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-tennessee-titans-beat-the-540b37b8d2bf | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-tennessee-titans-beat-the-540b37b8d2bf | {
"NO": 16.787600115819714,
"YES": 1953.742110200405
} | 0.01 | 0.540347 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,562.798035 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,848,346,051 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,702,848,336,151 | 1,702,848,335,965 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"nfl",
"tennessee-titans",
"houston-texans",
"football"
] | Yes - Titans win
No - Texans win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
DLXXUKjGTxzUf6hWy8bl | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,692,169,492,701 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,692,981,503,779 | Transfermarkt ⚽ Will Leo Messi's next Market Value exceed €30.00m? | transfermarkt-will-leo-messis-next | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/transfermarkt-will-leo-messis-next | {
"NO": 557.959461855462,
"YES": 39.26014970944551
} | 0.970201 | 0.696133 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 490.342815 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,981,503,779 | 0.97 | 5 | 1,692,879,054,117 | 1,692,879,006,065 | 1,692,879,052,134 | [
"major-league-soccer",
"soccer",
"us-soccer",
"football-transfers",
"-transfermarkets"
] | Lionel Andrés Messi (born 24 June 1987), is an Argentine professional footballer who plays as a forward for and captains both Major League Soccer club Inter Miami and the Argentina national team.
His ⚽ Market Value is currently (last update: Jun 27,2023) estimated by Transfermarkt at €35m.
[image]
Will the next Transfermarkt's update for Messi estimate his Market Value greater than €35,000,000 ?
This market will resolve after the next MV for this player is published.
[image]
Interested? CHECK OTHER ⚽ TRANSFERMARKETS | N/A | null | null |
JxoW9snbGZYo2rnfTk8g | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,711,542,725,673 | 1,714,507,200,000 | Will Dow Jones Industrial Index increase by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024? | will-dow-jones-industrial-index-inc | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-dow-jones-industrial-index-inc | {
"NO": 76.92959211337667,
"YES": 1636.8993273480064
} | 0.036819 | 0.448545 | 400 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,818.408112 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,508,248,344 | 0.04 | 16 | 1,714,507,200,000 | 1,714,506,574,895 | 1,713,816,447,029 | [
"stocks",
"dow-jones"
] | Will Dow Jones Industrial Index increase by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?
Market Information:
The official source used is *Google Finance
Dow Jones
Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC
Resolving:
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Note: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!
This market extends after every trading day if criteria not met
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.
| N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
zxN2jr8I5Kelqzm9h5OG | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | Joshua | Joshua | 1,689,186,310,575 | 1,704,039,280,351 | Will the EPA's newly proposed limits on lead dust in homes and child care facilities become official by the end of 2023? | will-the-epas-newly-proposed-limits | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-the-epas-newly-proposed-limits | {
"NO": 52.92992160996302,
"YES": 882.0809634940501
} | 0.032411 | 0.358246 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 753.983899 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,039,280,351 | 0.03 | 7 | 1,704,039,280,972 | 1,704,039,195,224 | 1,704,039,264,254 | [
"politics-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Story Here.
[image]This market resolves YES if this regulation is made law at the federal level and enforced at any point before the end of the year.
The new regulation needs to be broadly similar to what is proposed in the article linked above. If there is ambiguity, I will specifically be looking at this quote:
Under the proposed regulation, any amount of lead dust in floors and window sills would qualify as “hazardous” and require abatement, compared with the current “hazardous” standard of 10 micrograms per square foot for floors and 100 micrograms per square foot for window sills. It would also lower the amount of lead dust that can legally remain in dust on floors, window sills and window troughs after removal activities.
The regulation would apply to facilities regularly used by children 6 years old or younger, including child care centers, preschools and kindergarten classrooms.
If the the regulation is never made law by the end of the year, or if it is made law but held up in court before it can be enforced by the end of the year, this market resolves NO.
I will not bet in this market. | N/A | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | null |
|
p865X9yHFbFHx8AdkpLP | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,684,489,988,568 | 1,684,613,208,205 | Northern Ireland local elections 2023 - will the DUP win 120 or more seats | northern-ireland-local-elections-20-00bd8a91a1c4 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/northern-ireland-local-elections-20-00bd8a91a1c4 | {
"NO": 22110.4737115798,
"YES": 24.825631994145464
} | 0.999748 | 0.816632 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,568.348985 | 0 | true | YES | 1,684,613,208,205 | 1 | 9 | 1,684,611,677,118 | 1,684,611,676,983 | 1,684,507,674,042 | [
"uk-politics"
] | The Northern Ireland local elections took place on Thursday 19th May.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Northern_Ireland_local_elections
Counting of votes started in the morning of Friday 20th May. Results are expected to start coming in on Friday afternoon and into Saturday.
The parties are defending the following seat totals (based on the results of the 2019 elections):
DUP - 122 seats
Sinn Fein - 105 seats
UUP - 75 seats
SDLP - 59 seats
Alliance - 53 seats
Green Party - 8 seats
Once the results are finalised, will the DUP win 120 or more seats? | N/A | null | ||
Vg9MoxNdNwXn8YWjWarD | LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322 | esusatyo | Enrico Susatyo | 1,682,854,740,006 | 1,685,919,540,000 | If Apple releases a VR Goggle in WWDC 2023, will it be called Apple Glass? | if-apple-releases-a-vr-goggle-in-ww | https://manifold.markets/esusatyo/if-apple-releases-a-vr-goggle-in-ww | {
"NO": 334.32930504668866,
"YES": 1004.0528673330642
} | 0.043343 | 0.119767 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,378.418867 | 0 | true | NO | 1,686,005,764,431 | 0.04 | 20 | 1,686,002,627,549 | 1,685,873,364,550 | 1,686,002,625,724 | [
"apple"
] | Resolves YES if Apple releases the VR goggle product and it's called "Apple Glass"
Resolves NO if Apple releases VR goggle and it's called something else.
Resolves N/A if Apple does not release a VR Goggle in WWDC 2023.
Closes before WWDC. | N/A | null | ||
OMMNxbJSl5pRyFVvrtfj | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,149,955,940 | 1,703,228,400,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-22 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-bd2cacdd6261 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-bd2cacdd6261 | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.213115 | 0.213115 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,374,143,525 | 0.21 | 0 | 1,703,149,963,881 | 1,703,149,963,760 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-22 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
j9tQivZeCFy9tyXp1C8y | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | AVS | AVS | 1,672,915,287,407 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 1,696,021,140,000 | Will the average USD/RUB exchange rate be higher than 70 between September 23 and September 29, 2023? | will-the-average-usdrub-exchange-ra-170fb7d05e52 | https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-the-average-usdrub-exchange-ra-170fb7d05e52 | {
"NO": 2761.0876964759946,
"YES": 122.77831242957842
} | 0.990048 | 0.815619 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,641.515357 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,022,513,429 | 0.99 | 12 | 1,696,014,614,331 | 1,696,014,613,897 | 1,692,610,005,879 | [
"currency"
] | Main source for market resolution:
Google Finance: USD/RUB
Averaging strategy
I will use arithmetic average of the daily exchange rates between September 23 and September 29, 2023.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market.
List of my USD/RUB markets:
>70. Dec. 24 - Dec. 30, 2022
>75. Jan. 22 - Jan. 28, 2023 (also: >70)
>80. Mar. 19 - Mar. 25, 2023 (also: >70)
>80. Jun. 18 - Jun. 24, 2023 (also: >70)
>80. Sep. 23 - Sep. 29, 2023 (also: >70)
>80. Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2023 (also: >70)
Number. Dec. 15 - Dec. 21, 2023 | N/A | null | null |
jWIB0m4ItDwys2LNf3zG | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | Stralor | Pat Scott🩴 | 1,690,964,513,973 | 1,693,551,540,000 | [Survey] Is this survey at all reliable? | survey-is-this-survey-at-all-reliab | https://manifold.markets/Stralor/survey-is-this-survey-at-all-reliab | {
"NO": 264.2553507868946,
"YES": 149.96876541062466
} | 0.73514 | 0.611677 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 111.724143 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,560,227,203 | 0.74 | 8 | 1,693,560,220,593 | 1,693,411,928,145 | 1,693,560,220,358 | [
"pats-manifold-survey",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-users",
"manifold-surveys"
] | I wrote a survey, about Manifolders, for Manifolders.
Resolves YES at the end of August if more than 50% of people taking the survey said that information reliable enough to bet on could be gleaned from it, otherwise NO.
As I have all the info, I won't bet in this question.
Obviously the more people who take it, the better the results will be! Give it a go:
https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7
[link preview]If it jogs any inspiration in you, feel free to write questions of your own about it and comment them here! If you do, please use the group #Pat's Manifold Survey so they can be sorted together. And go bet on more in that group! | N/A | null | null |
|
SkPdIOpz9tIOOpSyCuKv | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,699,198,926,179 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,700,582,107,962 | [Metaculus] Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023? | metaculus-will-there-be-an-addition | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-there-be-an-addition | {
"NO": 138.51600500194172,
"YES": 36.67353688540932
} | 0.8 | 0.514337 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 176.572782 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,582,107,962 | -1 | 4 | 1,700,069,234,403 | 1,700,069,234,243 | -1 | [
"metaculus"
] | Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19700/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if there is at least one additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023, based on data according to PREQVECA.ru. As of November 1, 2023, there have been five Russian IPOs in 2023, so this question asks whether there will be six or more in 2023.
The search criteria are:
Placement type: IPO
Trading floor: MICEX
Country of operation: Russia
End of Placement:
from: January 1, 2023
to: December 31, 2023
All other: Leave empty
For an IPO to count for this question, it has to have an ‘End of placement’ date between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, inclusive. If 6 or more companies meet this criterion, this question resolves as Yes.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | null | null |
KOY3ASOYIxc0fUgEYAxc | 8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92 | citrinitas | Anton Paquin | 1,672,725,885,034 | 1,678,690,740,000 | Will Terraform Industries sell something substantial before 2024? | will-terraform-industries-sell-some | https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-terraform-industries-sell-some | {
"NO": 2104.5393395571814,
"YES": 184.51192546537584
} | 0.95583 | 0.654843 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,684.812865 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,695,890,892 | 0.96 | 25 | 1,678,695,918,170 | 1,678,690,509,805 | 1,678,695,932,995 | [
"business",
"technology-default",
"energy",
"eoy-2023"
] | See https://terraformindustries.com/ and https://twitter.com/TerraformIndies
Terraform Industries is a carbon-capture company that claims to be "a bet on cheap solar, synthetic hydrocarbon supremacy, and hyperscale". Basically, they think solar power will be cheap enough to efficiently turn atmospheric CO2 into methane.
I want to know: will they start to sell anything this year? Including but not limited to methane or a sabatier reactor. I'll also accept anything that seems to be accomplishing their stated goal of carbon capture.
I won't count stock sales, NFT baseball cards, flamethrowers, or anything like that.
Resolves based on any information that's publicly available and/or shared with this market at close time. "Sell" as in "closed a sales contract", they don't need to actually deliver in 2023.
I might change the rules during the first week of this market, if someone makes a good case for doing so. I won't bet in this market.
Update: Check the comments from @Mqrius for evidence of a sales contract with socalgas. I think this matches a literal interpretation of the rules, so this market will probably resolve YES. Team NO has until 12 March to give me a good counterargument. | N/A | null | ||
tSAx7Atsv47dBzplbmpl | 3XYZN0afx2X9H1Uzjf9kFSWpbIl1 | dagnazty | Daggy | 1,690,967,468,400 | 1,691,017,200,000 | Will XMR (XMR/USD) close higher on August 2 than it closed on August 1? | will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug | https://manifold.markets/dagnazty/will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug | {
"NO": 79.72775608290856,
"YES": 910.4295724777512
} | 0.041843 | 0.332745 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,816.139242 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,022,096,645 | 0.04 | 9 | 1,691,022,075,996 | 1,691,016,868,491 | 1,691,022,073,951 | [
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD
Previous Close: $160.4069
This market is experimental.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |