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oQYtfDdeO0QX4AG6gJOE | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,702,481,328,426 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,703,371,500,000 | NFL🏈: Week 16: Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win their NFL Game against the Cincinnati Bengals on 12/23? | nfl-week-16-will-the-pittsburgh-ste | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-16-will-the-pittsburgh-ste | {
"NO": 441.8395639191051,
"YES": 41.742482391690295
} | 0.91 | 0.488554 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,003.317785 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,377,637,729 | 0.91 | 8 | 1,703,371,289,774 | 1,703,371,289,650 | -1 | [
"cincinnati-bengals",
"nfl",
"pittsburgh-steelers"
] | am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.
I am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.
So this market will close on 12/22 @ 2:45 PM PACIFIC TIME. | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
jjYQZHAB32hLWRxe2Nxt | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,697,402,075,043 | 1,697,554,800,000 | Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher october 17th than the close of october 16th? | will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-oct-2ca59089e01d | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-oct-2ca59089e01d | {
"NO": 113.04995613272419,
"YES": 368.1098630735959
} | 0.112091 | 0.291316 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,040.939832 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,558,834,999 | 0.11 | 9 | 1,697,558,825,830 | 1,697,554,543,290 | 1,697,558,824,587 | [
"stocks",
"finance",
"sccsq4"
] | Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
J17Es3aewLEPxERe7BM5 | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | MattCWilson | Matt C. Wilson | 1,673,639,334,759 | 1,703,393,940,000 | 6. Flight volume will stay below 2019 levels. | 6-flight-volume-will-stay-below-201 | https://manifold.markets/MattCWilson/6-flight-volume-will-stay-below-201 | {
"NO": 334.0164873444268,
"YES": 180.6687356469599
} | 0.762202 | 0.634197 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 130 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,827,157,065 | 0.76 | 10 | 1,703,827,180,900 | 1,697,511,287,003 | 1,703,827,180,188 | [
"scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre",
"travel"
] | (Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre
-----
In 2019, US airlines averaged more than 26,000 flights per day, compared to just 22,300 in 2022. That 14% gap will shrink significantly, but we won’t reach 2019 levels this year.
(80% confidence)
-----
This is question #6 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going).
Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data. | N/A | rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2 | null |
|
WPiwzx17XBAvottQuNeg | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,703,094,941,941 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,709,563,500,000 | Will Clarence Thomas rule with the Majority when ruling on whether to overturn the Colorado SC 14th Amendment ruling ? | will-clarence-thomas-rule-with-the | https://manifold.markets/Orca/will-clarence-thomas-rule-with-the | {
"NO": 1943.254045857639,
"YES": 483.1028409231369
} | 0.960688 | 0.858665 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,669.928064 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,567,094,363 | 0.96 | 32 | 1,710,219,629,789 | 1,709,554,564,957 | 1,703,214,277,593 | [
"us-politics",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"donald-trump",
"supreme-court",
"scotus",
"trump-indictments",
"clarence-thomas"
] | This is my second in the Clarence Thomas, Donald Trump, SCOTUS Trifecta Nexus :) I had only initially planned to do one, but this is fun -- so I will create more markets.
The question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority of the ruling or not.
RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion is in the majority column.
RESOLVE NO -- If he is in the minority opinion.
Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes.
Recusal will result in an N/A. SCOTUS not granting certiorari and therefore not hearing the case will also result in N/A. If this case is resolved by SCOTUS in any way that we will not know the votes of the Justices, it will result in N/A as well.
Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority -- either for Trump or against Trump.
Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.
To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.
I believe the hearing date is 8th Feb. Closing on 17th slightly more than a week; as promised when market was launched. Hope that give enough time to mull over the proceedings. CT usually stays mum, but has been know to break the rule. | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
owkS90bYQR72DRwct7yN | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,709,764,288,024 | 1,711,912,899,709 | Will Sharks break 1200 GP in OSRS during March? | will-sharks-break-1200-gp-in-osrs-d | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-sharks-break-1200-gp-in-osrs-d | {
"NO": 45.47508148343822,
"YES": 1453.9082219217034
} | 0.016417 | 0.347962 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,387.094131 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,912,899,709 | 0.02 | 5 | 1,711,912,899,709 | 1,711,832,084,434 | 1,711,912,183,583 | [
"video-games",
"runescape",
"gaming",
"old-school-runescape-osrs"
] | Sharks have been raising this last month. The recent surge seems to have slowed down with only an 8GP raise from 3/5 to 3/6.
[image]Resolves to: Grand Exchange data
Resolves Yes if sharks break 1200 GP in March.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenWatts/which-price-points-will-sharks-brea) | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | null |
|
mlhqThs71bOh3orKtrw0 | qCMkdLlW1IRTHSUSDoru5KvJc4H2 | JonathanMohrbacher | Jonathan Mohrbacher | 1,648,593,697,785 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgfrSMqgqoEzHBAx1E7zwk8vqC9TcGH0gXcnE9x=s96-c | 1,651,463,940,000 | Will there be a successful ceasefire in Yemen during the month of Ramadan? | will-there-be-a-successful-ceasefir | https://manifold.markets/JonathanMohrbacher/will-there-be-a-successful-ceasefir | {
"NO": 42.552994579456055,
"YES": 307.57566213500877
} | 0.112892 | 0.479122 | 104.671811 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 451.326079 | 0 | true | YES | 1,651,497,079,740 | 0.112892 | 8 | 1,651,454,931,576 | 1,651,454,931,437 | 1,649,888,515,600 | [] | The UN has been trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Yemen to span the entire holy month of Ramadan.
On March 21, the Houthis praised the move, saying it was a positive step: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-21/yemen-houthis-say-u-n-calls-for-truce-in-ramadan-a-positive-step-spokesman
On March 29, the Saudi-led coalition announced that it will observe a unilateral cease-fire: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/gulf-states-plan-yemen-talks-without-houthi-rebels-present/2022/03/29/3bfa7fc0-af23-11ec-9dbd-0d4609d44c1c_story.html.
Examples of events that will cause me to resolve this market to NO:
* The Saudi-led coalition launches airstrikes in Yemen.
* The Houthis explode a drone in Saudi Arabia.
If it seems ambiguous I will either resolve as N/A or at a percentage that I think is reasonable, along the lines that Gabrielle describes in his answer to my question in https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-russia-use-chemical-or-biologi-e790d5158f6a. | N/A | null | null |
QudBAqamsiaEyaXbysN8 | V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53 | BramStolk | Bram Stolk | 1,658,872,912,918 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c | 1,672,472,557,606 | Will Apple Inc (AAPL) market value reach $3T before the end of 2022? | will-apple-inc-aapl-market-value-re | https://manifold.markets/BramStolk/will-apple-inc-aapl-market-value-re | {
"NO": 123.54124576340375,
"YES": 841.2067101971425
} | 0.040194 | 0.221878 | 220 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,270.834865 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,472,557,606 | 0.04 | 18 | 1,670,639,529,610 | 1,670,639,529,446 | -1 | [
"economics-default"
] | This resolves to YES if at any time before 2023-01-01 the market capitalization of AAPL reaches $3T.
For the current market capitalization, see: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL?p=AAPL
[image] | N/A | null | null |
GocGXFd4vMF3WpgkHlby | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,687,971,460 | 1,707,819,600,000 | Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-13 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-29720e10b9f9 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-29720e10b9f9 | {
"NO": 87.11426602454279,
"YES": 106.79523186050372
} | 0.111638 | 0.133493 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 48 | 0 | true | YES | 1,707,851,134,322 | 0.11 | 3 | 1,707,851,135,246 | 1,707,812,268,377 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-13 10:20 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-13 - 12:20 (UTC)
04:20 (Los Angeles)
07:20 (New York)
13:20 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
aOO1MqyzF6NsLRA7j4Xd | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,702,938,424,878 | 1,703,021,400,000 | Will USD/CAD close higher Dec 19 than Dec 18? (Currency Daily) | will-usdcad-close-higher-dec-19-tha | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-usdcad-close-higher-dec-19-tha | {
"NO": 77.275288036964,
"YES": 1096.6666666666667
} | 0.036546 | 0.349939 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 905 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,027,645,486 | 0.04 | 8 | 1,710,207,005,698 | 1,703,021,089,796 | 1,703,027,631,327 | [
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"finance",
"currency",
"commodities",
"sccsq4",
"spot-price",
"usdcad"
] | CAD daily candle closes at 5pm EST (10pm UTC).
This market closes 30 mins earlier.
[image]Resolves from CNBC's Prev Close/Chart or Investing's Historical Data
Other Markets
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Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
hCYQSTwfxodF2oS0ro5G | 37gzOQNgNGewBv5pkL5EouD2h5s2 | ColtonLewis | Colton Lewis | 1,658,113,017,528 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyyo46TMEBPWjzdJKhQPkrLSmpdYMF_E-VVI4c=s96-c | 1,672,552,740,000 | Will the Rust programming language break into the top 20 of the TIOBE language popularity index any time in 2022? | will-the-rust-programming-language | https://manifold.markets/ColtonLewis/will-the-rust-programming-language | {
"NO": 1434.229316005703,
"YES": 261.9024298082818
} | 0.982221 | 0.909818 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,040.476184 | 0 | true | YES | 1,673,024,916,872 | 0.98 | 23 | 1,672,181,724,967 | 1,672,181,724,744 | 1,669,021,252,624 | [
"technology-default",
"please-resolve"
] | https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/
Rust went as high as 18 in September 2020 and its highest position this year was 24 in February.
Jul 22, 12:15pm: Will the Rust programming language break into the top 20 of the TIOBE language popularity index any time in 2021? → Will the Rust programming language break into the top 20 of the TIOBE language popularity index any time in 2022? | N/A | null | null |
iDzDp2VGEdWn0eqwzNV6 | cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93 | Gen | Genzy | 1,697,510,387,017 | 1,699,208,469,739 | Will Destiny say "You can do that right now, under capitalism" during his debate with Leo? (exact match not required) | will-destiny-say-you-can-do-that-ri | https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-destiny-say-you-can-do-that-ri | {
"NO": 484.5244929948794,
"YES": 260.885710335672
} | 0.868326 | 0.780254 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,407.24303 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,208,469,739 | 0.87 | 29 | 1,699,208,654,281 | 1,699,208,193,404 | 1,699,208,653,614 | [
"debatecon-4-4fa0a51a2203",
"destinygg"
] | Will also accept close variants. If it is loosely similar, might resolve to PROB%.
"And if that's the best thing to do, then you can do it right now, nobody is stopping you" -> 60%
"And if that's the best thing to do, then you can do it right now, under capitalism" -> YES
"And if that's the best thing to do, then you can do it right now, under the current system" -> 70%
"The difference is, under your system I'm forced to do this and under my system we can both do what we want" -> 50%
obviously it will be a bit subjective. If he says a variant of "you can do that already" + "under capitalism" it will probably resolve YES.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/qmfwRMEHIOc) | N/A | null | null |
|
QeHydpZeEZnfv6GOtwmK | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | SaviorofPlant | Savior of Plant | 1,716,835,701,203 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLL8bnOoSvkiZvyB-37Ih63-HX0IacGV_I3U-WUQQMdCw=s96-c | 1,717,519,810,656 | Will Manifold have more than 1445 daily active users on any day in June? | will-manifold-have-more-than-1445-d | https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-manifold-have-more-than-1445-d | {
"NO": 9949.874371066237,
"YES": 100.50378152592111
} | 0.99 | 0.5 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 17,748.775745 | 11,178.207415 | true | YES | 1,717,519,810,656 | 0.99 | 50 | 1,717,519,810,656 | 1,717,519,799,617 | 1,717,517,111,317 | [
"manifold-business-future",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",
"pivot-predictions"
] | https://manifold.markets/stats
Resolves based on DAU, not 7-day avg. Must be 1446 DAU or more on a day in June to resolve YES. | N/A | FLHfNyjr8Yb13nv9jKFaU8qSF9m1 | |
QcRv4Mg70BpF0jkRFbic | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,702,484,204,653 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,702,848,249,739 | Will the Cleveland Browns beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 15 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-cleveland-browns-beat-the-0fb8cdca9e04 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-cleveland-browns-beat-the-0fb8cdca9e04 | {
"NO": 1704.7371388943538,
"YES": 57.74710952640862
} | 0.978171 | 0.602844 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,777.522073 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,848,272,108 | 0.98 | 10 | 1,702,848,235,401 | 1,702,848,235,275 | -1 | [
"football",
"nfl",
"sports-default",
"cleveland-browns",
"chicago-bears"
] | Yes - Browns win
No - Bears win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
H0s4Iddkn9DyPLXIFZjf | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | strutheo | chris (strutheo) | 1,701,768,953,663 | 1,706,763,540,000 | Will Five Night's at Freddy's gross more than $400M worldwide by Jan 31st 2024? | will-five-nights-at-freddys-gross-m | https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-five-nights-at-freddys-gross-m | {
"NO": 112.3715291308311,
"YES": 3501.9802584777835
} | 0.007762 | 0.196012 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,598.6119 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,779,468,817 | 0.01 | 15 | 1,706,779,469,036 | 1,706,708,539,576 | 1,706,779,460,421 | [
"movies",
"boxoffice",
"five-nights-at-freddys",
"blumhouse"
] | Info: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4589218/ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
FVJcCNOPJzBcG5egX5xS | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,708,728,229,305 | 1,709,236,800,000 | Will Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) close February higher than it opened? | will-tesla-nasdaq-tsla-close-februa | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-tesla-nasdaq-tsla-close-februa | {
"NO": 6194.512345351895,
"YES": 137.93927951951326
} | 0.99582 | 0.841405 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,969.425601 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,240,562,499 | 1 | 15 | 1,710,451,915,124 | 1,709,235,333,764 | 1,709,240,557,211 | [
"technology-default",
"entertainment",
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"finance",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"tesla",
"keen-stocks",
"stocks-league-beta"
] | Tesla Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
TSLA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 188.50
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
CRztvHrOxppGpFJyGj0g | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,670,971,981,220 | 1,677,737,534,296 | Will it be possible to dispute and override market resolutions by end of 2023? | will-it-be-possible-to-dispute-and | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-it-be-possible-to-dispute-and | {
"NO": 21773.35655122183,
"YES": 51.112938225185644
} | 0.999253 | 0.758421 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,509.228776 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,737,534,296 | 1 | 11 | 1,677,737,514,138 | 1,677,737,513,989 | 1,677,737,491,918 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, it is possible to override the author's resolution, without the author's agreement, for a "default" market (one created with default options that isn't part of a tournament or other special category). Otherwise NO.
Any method of deciding on whether to change the resolution will count here. For example, if the Manifold admins decide to change an obviously misresolved market to N/A, that counts as YES. (This is a simple approach that I think most people are in favor of.) If they have the technical capability to do that but never do it and have a policy not to, that does not count.
Other possibilities include allowing the community to adjudicate the correct resolution - e.g. the final authority could rest with a group of trusted community members, or a supermajority vote of the commmunity at large, etc.
Related
Would this be a good idea:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/if-manifold-supports-disputing-and)Being able to change resolutions at all (including with author consent to fix mistakes):
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-it-be-possible-to-undochange-t)About retroactive changes specifically:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidChee/will-we-retroactively-change-the-re) | N/A | null | ||
soX5KByIbdZXkMI2zmIx | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,667,851,102,979 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will Scott Alexander review The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan? | will-scott-alexander-review-the-net | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-scott-alexander-review-the-net | {
"NO": 97.19347275654263,
"YES": 2463.270155748357
} | 0.027943 | 0.421482 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,433.52655 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,205,405,009 | 0.03 | 23 | 1,704,210,145,730 | 1,704,083,048,478 | 1,704,210,145,030 | [
"acx",
"blogs",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves NO if Scott Alexander has not posted a review of The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan (https://thenetworkstate.com/) on his blog (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/) by January 1st 2024.
I have not read the book yet, but Balaji Srinivasan was recently on the Lex Fridman podcast (for almost 8 hours! https://lexfridman.com/balaji-srinivasan/) and discussed a lot of issues that Scott Alexander will probably find interesting. | N/A | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | ||
cLhsk79bjn9G0IMfEnGX | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,706,296,731,691 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,711,998,063,186 | [Metaculus] Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecuti...onald Trump, et al. case? | metaculus-before-april-1-2024-will | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-before-april-1-2024-will | {
"NO": 179.98568470925937,
"YES": 6510.008566964043
} | 0.020974 | 0.436576 | 940 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 16,428.310105 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,998,063,186 | -1 | 56 | 1,711,998,063,186 | 1,711,901,889,288 | 1,710,535,714,169 | [
"metaculus"
] | Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21120/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves "Yes" if, prior to April 1, 2024, credible sources report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).
The mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney for the prosecution (e.g. a voluntary withdrawal or a disqualification by the court) does not matter, so long as credible sources report that Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | |
NJTEH1kACj3q8inVdsUu | bmXvA2m8icW7AePmYayvFQSm9vr2 | MarkMontoya | Mark Montoya | 1,701,297,345,875 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLLaXOUkthfuD3GrAH_eQyFd9-xemcrV2Ue7zytlgyoHp0=s96-c | 1,712,300,340,000 | Will Mark Cuban launch an United States Presidential campaign during the first financial quarter of 2024? | will-mark-cuban-launch-an-united-st | https://manifold.markets/MarkMontoya/will-mark-cuban-launch-an-united-st | {
"NO": 206.91385999183905,
"YES": 3171.4936081606843
} | 0.014742 | 0.186556 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,998.025725 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,323,612,893 | 0.01 | 25 | 1,712,300,340,000 | 1,712,296,898,061 | 1,712,323,606,753 | [
"us-politics"
] | He's sold on some assets (Mavericks most notably). He's leaving Shark Tank.
Speculation is he is going to run for US President - if so, when will he announce? | N/A | 2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2 | null |
C1y3xWt1p8u1wvY9Cl0a | Xkw8gX7tBpWg9u8q5VqJaRjyhzd2 | RemiRampin | Rémi Rampin | 1,694,268,257,441 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcY8w1E-TGSv8VxRUeQP-a3VGaDdcNT8r3D1z5OpI7MEuU=s96-c | 1,711,292,270,345 | Will Slay the Spire the board game be delivered before April 1 of 2024? | will-slay-the-spire-the-board-game | https://manifold.markets/RemiRampin/will-slay-the-spire-the-board-game | {
"NO": 859.5797835941194,
"YES": 36.470824552455724
} | 0.969668 | 0.575624 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 816.041059 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,292,270,345 | 0.97 | 10 | 1,711,292,270,345 | 1,711,265,502,056 | 1,711,292,238,462 | [
"slay-the-spire",
"board-games"
] | Slay the Spire is a popular single-player video game, which successfully ran a Kickstarter campaign for a physical card game.
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game
The original estimate was September 2023, and it has already been pushed back to February.
If any backer receives their copy of the game before April 1st of 2024, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise it will resolve to NO. | N/A | Xkw8gX7tBpWg9u8q5VqJaRjyhzd2 | null |
NlBEOEzfbwWOcom3fer4 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,703,086,530,034 | 1,703,176,200,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 21st December than it closed on 20th December? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9382aa053bca | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-9382aa053bca | {
"NO": 7.04684977568996,
"YES": 463.556211757506
} | 0.017942 | 0.54583 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,052.19358 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,179,097,404 | 0.02 | 14 | 1,710,462,496,887 | 1,703,174,414,986 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"sccsq4",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 21st December than it did on Wednesday 20th December?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
86o3hI2PbMeMRp2aBr3v | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,386,490,208 | 1,699,570,800,000 | Will XRP close higher on November 9 than it closed on November 8? | will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-9 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-9 | {
"NO": 96.76458427401525,
"YES": 865.4712182653825
} | 0.070425 | 0.403914 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,310.397814 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,576,991,175 | 0.07 | 17 | 1,699,576,983,422 | 1,699,561,489,980 | 1,699,576,982,626 | [
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD
Previous Close: $0.6878
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
sunZAgByldC6X08Yut09 | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | mint | mint | 1,711,131,606,421 | 1,713,754,570,112 | Is the massive terror attack at the Moscow concert hall related to Ukraine? | is-the-massive-terror-attack-at-the | https://manifold.markets/mint/is-the-massive-terror-attack-at-the | {
"NO": 699.2733348614564,
"YES": 10454.648366344469
} | 0.010001 | 0.131213 | 1,080 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 14,823.58695 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,754,570,112 | 0.01 | 51 | 1,713,754,570,112 | 1,713,754,566,579 | 1,712,098,555,909 | [
"russia",
"terrorism",
"ukraine",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | If, within one month, credible reporting emerges from Western sources claiming that the terrorist attack at the Moscow concert hall is related to Ukraine, this market resolves YES. If there is no such news in one month, resolves NO. I'll have a generous interpretation of "related to Ukraine".
Related to Ukraine means:
Perpetrated by Ukrainian nationals, or agents of Ukraine in any way.
Financed by the Ukrainian government or pro-Ukraine organizations.
Carried out by people or an organization that is explicitly pro-Ukraine or anti-War in Russia.
Motivated by the Ukraine War, or an act of political protest either against it or for it.
[tweet] | N/A | ZKkL3lFRFaYfiaT9ZOdiv2iUJBM2 | null |
|
P7RpM4hg1rxqJLXaCUwR | fwGK5b9peFQbclczNeQdgCtjlYT2 | alextes | Alex | 1,693,460,913,394 | 1,693,549,334,859 | Will GitHub have any incident on August 31st 2023? | will-github-have-any-incident-on-au-57f05498bc0f | https://manifold.markets/alextes/will-github-have-any-incident-on-au-57f05498bc0f | {
"NO": 153.77789261100676,
"YES": 1030.4355395398645
} | 0.06 | 0.299578 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,703.383898 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,549,334,859 | 0.06 | 15 | 1,693,538,582,367 | 1,693,538,582,229 | 1,693,514,267,692 | [
"internet",
"githubdown",
"github",
"world-default",
"technology-default"
] | In absence of @iblue's question I'm creating one for today.
Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history will show ANY incident on 2023-08-31 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.
Will resolve to NO otherwise.
Resolution times:
If YES, question will be resolved as soon as I notice any incident on the page for this timeframe.
If NO, question will be resolved after end of day, if I am online.
Full disclosure from Alex, if you've never traded any of these markets before, although they may be mispriced frequently and you can make money from this, there is at least one bot which will try to snipe the outcome 👀. | N/A | null | null |
|
pcLlvTp0ELpyLlWw5Rg9 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,854,634,699 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,680,349,659,507 | Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March? | will-the-ukrainian-army-successfull | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-successfull | {
"NO": 61633.33805277034,
"YES": 231.01949229430465
} | 0.998045 | 0.656806 | 1,690 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 70,442.507222 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,349,659,507 | 1 | 85 | 1,680,349,653,391 | 1,680,349,653,277 | 1,679,919,703,486 | [
"russia",
"wars",
"ukraine",
"ukrainerussia-war",
"politics-default",
"world-default",
"culture-default"
] | https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104 | N/A | null | |
2wyGV5iaJ6J4XlX28Yl5 | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | Fedor | Fedor | 1,697,049,918,200 | 1,697,109,933,477 | Will CTBC Flying Oyster beat Team Whales | will-ctbc-flying-oyster-beat-team-w | https://manifold.markets/Fedor/will-ctbc-flying-oyster-beat-team-w | {
"NO": 0.154078477791699,
"YES": 10141.183950006603
} | 0.000019 | 0.550368 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,177.811558 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,109,933,477 | 0 | 3 | 1,697,110,215,770 | 1,697,109,902,118 | 1,697,110,215,064 | [
"league-of-legends",
"esports",
"sports-default",
"lol-worlds-2023"
] | League of legends Worlds 2023, will CTBC Flying Oyster beat Team Whales. Yes if CTBC Flying Oyster wins, No if Team Whales wins.
Results can be retrieved from the live stream on https://lolesports.com/schedule?leagues=worlds,wqs
Market closes after the match finishes. I may bet to gain the leftover liquidity to fund further markets. Resolution will usually take a day until I've watched the actual match, it will take a maximum of 36 hours after the match finishes. | N/A | null | null |
|
k0bDbUkmhkpfX82WMjQF | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,708,424,606,522 | 1,708,670,700,000 | Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-b23bccf293f7 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-b23bccf293f7 | {
"NO": 50.84492625316315,
"YES": 44.934011618846995
} | 0.150741 | 0.135593 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,769,459,537 | 0.15 | 0 | 1,708,769,459,785 | 1,708,668,017,406 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-23 06:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 08:45 (UTC)
00:45 (Los Angeles)
03:45 (New York)
09:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
iJzo5P8leKQeWlq3nXNB | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | Base | Base | 1,713,232,766,207 | 1,713,391,140,000 | Will Manchester City win against Arsenal in the Champions League Quarterfinals (alternative match) | will-manchester-city-win-against-ar | https://manifold.markets/Base/will-manchester-city-win-against-ar | {
"NO": 748.6988431044131,
"YES": 87.80485656458698
} | 0.959212 | 0.733899 | 220 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,943.699238 | 0 | true | YES | 1,713,395,869,561 | 0.96 | 10 | 1,713,391,140,000 | 1,713,391,024,347 | -1 | [
"football",
"uefa-champions-league",
"manchester-city",
"arsenal",
"soccer"
] | This is an alternative game for the Champions League quarter-final second leg
The goals of the two teams from the original games are taken and then compared who the game would have won.
(only Goals in the Regular Playtime count.)
Example:
Manchester City 3:1 Real Madrid
Bayern 1:2 Arsenal
Then the Result would be 3:2 for Manchester City and the Market would resolve to yes
other alternative matches:
Manchester City vs Bayern: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-manchester-city-win-against-ba
Dortmund vs Barcelona: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-dortmund-win-against-barcelona | N/A | dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22 | null |
|
0QzwcPDfZRyYp0nkLkT8 | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,401,587,888 | 1,702,483,200,000 | Will CAC 40 close higher december 13th than the close of december 12th? (Daily Market) | will-cac-40-close-higher-december-1-5dab5f37aa76 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-december-1-5dab5f37aa76 | {
"NO": 147.32249253423953,
"YES": 324.90534777836984
} | 0.462398 | 0.654803 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,218.792671 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,490,750,583 | 0.57 | 12 | 1,702,490,746,945 | 1,702,483,049,432 | 1,702,490,745,224 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4",
"finance"
] | CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | ||
Zn0Ez5Yc4Zvsz52kUnPm | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,697,155,829,559 | 1,698,778,800,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close at or lower than 16.00 during October 2023? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at-067f33c05a23 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at-067f33c05a23 | {
"NO": 114.29558210337449,
"YES": 4545.277267559271
} | 0.010658 | 0.299913 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,108.027896 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,797,272,521 | 0.01 | 21 | 1,698,797,267,522 | 1,698,778,273,409 | 1,698,797,267,031 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks",
"economics-default"
] | Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
| N/A | null | null |
|
6unQ9lSPHnUjJkWneUOA | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,699,033,132,805 | 1,699,286,400,000 | Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher november 6th than the close of november 3th? | will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-60b17f5da0de | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-60b17f5da0de | {
"NO": 33.15631990406527,
"YES": 251.6367582925731
} | 0.113386 | 0.492536 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 584.595402 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,290,021,861 | 0.11 | 14 | 1,699,290,029,945 | 1,699,286,057,278 | 1,699,290,029,290 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
UkpqpOqe6RgU4FpYAegc | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,682,276,920,287 | 1,698,371,182,982 | Will Larry Elder suspend his presidential campaign before the first Republican presidential primary votes are cast? | will-larry-elder-suspend-his-presid | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-larry-elder-suspend-his-presid | {
"NO": 4098.297633544019,
"YES": 19.41731634035945
} | 0.999644 | 0.930049 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,022.129279 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,371,182,982 | 1 | 4 | 1,698,362,137,215 | 1,698,362,068,517 | 1,698,362,135,484 | [
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"2024-republican-primaries",
"larry-elder",
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns and withdrew from the race before the first primaries and caucuses had even started, including Rick Perry, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, and George Pataki.
In 2024, the first primary or caucus is scheduled to be the Iowa caucuses on the 22nd of January, 2024. If Larry Elder suspends his campaign before the first primary or caucus is held, this market will resolve to YES. If his campaign is still going on the day of the first primary or caucus, this market will resolve to NO. | N/A | null | ||
n9Gn4rHX2vGVHTodbGKy | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,531,310,234 | 1,699,556,400,000 | Will the TSX close higher on November 9 than it did on November 8? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-aa1d9741d489 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-aa1d9741d489 | {
"NO": 534.7332923898799,
"YES": 82.7880988909397
} | 0.949781 | 0.745424 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 827.436755 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,567,957,118 | 0.95 | 7 | 1,699,567,951,015 | 1,699,555,174,404 | 1,699,567,950,350 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4",
"finance",
"hawsbollah",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
ADxLxkFLrw1wMWMyvhU4 | yd0wMeg7rnbBk9cdPSMEGSwCXy33 | ClassiqVisionz | Classiq Visionz | 1,698,142,283,935 | 1,698,796,740,000 | Will the Hamas and IDF conflict lead to global war? | will-the-hamas-and-idf-conflict-lea | https://manifold.markets/ClassiqVisionz/will-the-hamas-and-idf-conflict-lea | {
"NO": 87.89884939117678,
"YES": 351.19682563045336
} | 0.045023 | 0.158511 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 298.432997 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,799,603,515 | 0.05 | 5 | 1,698,333,574,781 | 1,698,333,574,490 | -1 | [
"arabisraeli-conflict",
"israel",
"wars",
"israelhamas-conflict-2023"
] | Resolves to YES for WW3
And NO for peace
.
.
.
.
I will not be participating in this bet | N/A | null | null |
|
nykMKmh6H6MPFD9fq7Sb | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | AVS | AVS | 1,686,557,847,403 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 1,688,063,925,512 | Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023? | will-virgin-galactic-have-a-success | https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-virgin-galactic-have-a-success | {
"NO": 34759.95249581789,
"YES": 141.2016721430781
} | 0.997571 | 0.625203 | 1,630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 41,588.485797 | 0 | true | YES | 1,688,063,925,512 | 1 | 81 | 1,688,063,423,831 | 1,688,063,423,700 | 1,688,061,853,026 | [
"space",
"metaculus"
] | See the question on metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15148/virgin-galactic-commercial-flight-q1-q2-2023/ | N/A | null | |
oQT0GjBq3rn05TwOaTU8 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,603,241,984 | 1,700,694,000,000 | Will DOT close higher on November 22 than it closed on November 21? | will-dot-close-higher-on-november-2-778c8d0118e1 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-november-2-778c8d0118e1 | {
"NO": 1463.6082474891177,
"YES": 79.63728569780203
} | 0.987458 | 0.81075 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,952.762857 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,710,469,474 | 0.99 | 9 | 1,700,710,454,995 | 1,700,691,726,484 | 1,700,710,454,287 | [
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel
Previous Close: $4.91
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | null | null |
|
x4w13HoKjJbPWRQEaA7I | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,709,864,667,220 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,710,398,948,755 | [Metaculus] Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024? | metaculus-will-ariel-henry-return-t | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-ariel-henry-return-t | {
"NO": 110.33043231629867,
"YES": 2054.7375090068076
} | 0.012811 | 0.19464 | 240 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,957 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,398,948,755 | -1 | 9 | 1,710,398,949,809 | 1,710,396,230,421 | -1 | [
"metaculus",
"haiti"
] | Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21789/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 13, 2024, credible sources report that Ariel Henry has returned to Haiti.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
UZyI1Q7se6Bcdf8iqywr | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | LarsDoucet | Lars Doucet | 1,673,327,690,631 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1,704,088,740,000 | Will anyone take up DoNotPay on their $1M offer to let their robolawyer argue their supreme court case? | will-anyone-take-up-donotpay-on-the | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-anyone-take-up-donotpay-on-the | {
"NO": 430.0693034153669,
"YES": 3338.5026881616814
} | 0.021411 | 0.145184 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,867.722637 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,772,661,289 | 0.02 | 31 | 1,704,772,661,598 | 1,700,520,756,684 | 1,704,605,892,379 | [
"law-order",
"ai",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Background:
https://gizmodo.com/donotpay-ai-offer-lawyer-1-million-supreme-court-airpod-1849964761 | N/A | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | |
1GFBI0btTmbrICoymDCK | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,455,428,626 | 1,702,051,200,000 | Will Lufthansa close higher december 8th than the close of december 1th? (Weekly Market) | will-lufthansa-close-higher-decembe-f0156ceed32d | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-lufthansa-close-higher-decembe-f0156ceed32d | {
"NO": 1436.612128561878,
"YES": 78.88867454524927
} | 0.981998 | 0.749721 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,466.596299 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,056,017,421 | 0.98 | 9 | 1,702,056,011,961 | 1,702,047,187,084 | 1,702,056,011,155 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4",
"finance"
] | Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
VaqZspUiKMlJHsJqSNcC | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | DaAdCh | DAC | 1,715,808,705,320 | 1,716,138,666,160 | Will Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool all win their final matches of 2023/24 Premier League season on May 19, 2024? 🇬🇧 | will-man-city-arsenal-and-liverpool | https://manifold.markets/DaAdCh/will-man-city-arsenal-and-liverpool | {
"NO": 994.9874371066205,
"YES": 10.050378152592145
} | 0.99 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,100.729673 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,138,666,160 | 0.99 | 15 | 1,716,138,666,160 | 1,716,138,127,809 | 1,716,138,656,218 | [
"sports-default",
"soccer",
"football",
"premiere-league",
"premier-league-20232024"
] | 📅 Date: Monday, May 19, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester City (home team) has more goals than West Ham United (away team)
and
- Arsenal (home team) has more goals than Everton (away team)
and
- Liverpool (home team) has more goals than Wolverhampton Wanderers (away team)
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- any of the home teams (Manchester City, Arsenal or Liverpool) have equal or fewer goals than their respective opponents.
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 Match details for the final fixtures of the season for Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool | N/A | gVSlIZ8HxnSaBeCLyhIaQ4F5TVw1 | ||
YuJQGIK0d4nsfvXzI4lZ | W02e6ok1haOPFbK9dv14zzIdBb03 | FrederickNorris | Frederick Norris | 1,698,441,892,261 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1nG8JLEomMagK6stKR9jLtLP2h-QTJkMxC9Qz-tJy8A=s96-c | 1,699,747,178,815 | Will Trump say YES he wants his January 6 trial in Washington DC televised? | will-trump-say-yes-he-wants-his-jan | https://manifold.markets/FrederickNorris/will-trump-say-yes-he-wants-his-jan | {
"NO": 4206.640983900785,
"YES": 291.5251308674681
} | 0.970451 | 0.694749 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,402.660164 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,747,178,815 | 0.97 | 42 | 1,699,754,412,016 | 1,699,743,946,086 | 1,699,754,411,151 | [
"118th-congress",
"us-politics",
"speaker-of-the-house-election"
] | This is not a market about whether the trial WILL BE televised.
Judge Chutkan has asked Donald Trump to take a position.
Trump says YES, he doesn't object to the trial being televised, then this resolves YES.
Trump says NO, he doesn't want the trial televisied, it resolves NO.
If there is an ambiguous or no answer, then this will resolve N/A. Trump's answer must be very clear to get a resolution.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1717969875140751534 | N/A | null | null |
k6Ze39jLHABkQZgIKv6z | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,708,728,378,722 | 1,709,236,800,000 | Will Tesla close higher at the end of February than January? | will-tesla-close-higher-at-the-end | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-tesla-close-higher-at-the-end | {
"NO": 7218.573429013487,
"YES": 251.4803061161705
} | 0.993553 | 0.84298 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,837.473248 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,240,624,971 | 0.99 | 25 | 1,710,451,944,268 | 1,709,235,339,822 | 1,709,240,572,583 | [
"technology-default",
"entertainment",
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"finance",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"tesla",
"keen-stocks",
"stocks-league-beta"
] | Tesla Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
TSLA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 187.29
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
7XgZSWhWFtSV0SxLUn0P | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,676,494,763,615 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will Reddit IPO in 2023? | will-reddit-ipo-in-2023 | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-reddit-ipo-in-2023 | {
"NO": 446.8643693888771,
"YES": 17958.958842490803
} | 0.015955 | 0.394524 | 1,990 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 37,566.213834 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,136,434,806 | 0.02 | 200 | 1,704,136,436,994 | 1,703,697,341,197 | 1,701,277,097,262 | [
"economics-default",
"reddit-goes-dark",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves YES if in 2023 Reddit goes public, otherwise NO. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc.
Announcing that they will go public doesn't count, they need to actually go public in 2023. | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | ||
rEby2tTs0H3MUsuY4dhX | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,696,733,207,229 | 1,696,806,000,000 | Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 8 than it closed on October 7? | will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-7e15b57a0513 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-7e15b57a0513 | {
"NO": 188.18923004435874,
"YES": 288.6488868804494
} | 0.337883 | 0.43906 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 743.922012 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,824,653,590 | 0.34 | 11 | 1,696,824,649,673 | 1,696,803,367,355 | 1,696,824,649,054 | [
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $27,976.40
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
ve5cP6A3gFP0LCREtBwj | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | chrisjbillington | Chris Billington | 1,694,847,516,615 | 1,694,937,266,380 | Will Manifold have more engaged users on Sep 16th than Sep 15th? | will-manifold-have-more-engaged-use-9d8f161caf89 | https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-manifold-have-more-engaged-use-9d8f161caf89 | {
"NO": 32618.468928626207,
"YES": 16.930195674009155
} | 0.999716 | 0.646568 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 32,657.072427 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,937,266,380 | 1 | 13 | 1,694,937,256,087 | 1,694,937,255,955 | 1,694,935,820,123 | [
"manifold-users",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-user-retention"
] | https://manifold.markets/stats
An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks.
Market resolution will not respect manipulation attempts that violate Manifold's
community guidelines - this means use of bugs, an army of alts, botting, etc. Regular
collusion and other kinds of manipulation that don't violate the community guidelines are
fine.
In the event that community-guidelines-violating manipulation occurs, I will attempt to
correct for it and be transparent about how I have done so. | N/A | null | null |
|
1rcm9Naj8avu3X9Jh7uW | 7UjvnqrEwyUiGyhWjONEWGYxo4i2 | B_K | BK | 1,704,223,188,937 | 1,709,967,540,000 | Will the New Mexico United USL team win or tie their home opener against Pittsburgh on 9 March 2024? | will-the-new-mexico-united-usl-team | https://manifold.markets/B_K/will-the-new-mexico-united-usl-team | {
"NO": 80.43740491456722,
"YES": 61.297385249477976
} | 0.604488 | 0.538041 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 47.599665 | 0 | true | YES | 1,710,093,704,299 | 0.6 | 4 | 1,710,093,704,560 | 1,709,374,490,085 | 1,710,093,624,716 | [
"sports-default",
"us-soccer",
"usl-championship-league",
"albuquerque",
"new-mexico"
] | Resolves to yes if NM United win or tie per official website. https://www.uslchampionship.com | N/A | 7UjvnqrEwyUiGyhWjONEWGYxo4i2 | ||
nGzt732fH2orXwB82CyR | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,711,664,890,487 | 1,714,420,800,000 | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher at the end of April than March? | will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-983b4460cb24 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-983b4460cb24 | {
"NO": 1152.4241166116922,
"YES": 381.2826947841212
} | 0.794423 | 0.56112 | 640 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,063.684064 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,514,783,140 | 0.79 | 36 | 1,714,420,800,000 | 1,714,418,926,149 | 1,714,514,768,022 | [
"ai-stocks",
"apple",
"stocks",
"tech-stocks",
"stocks-league-2024",
"stock-league-april",
"aapl",
"stock-marketmonthly",
"big-tech",
"nasdaq"
] | Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 4pm ET on April 29
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $171.48
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | null |
|
j38hG0cRCV1qxrUDbfVy | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,697,916,595,514 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,698,005,155,446 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Atlanta Falcons in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-tampa-bay-buccaneers-beat-f5c1e329fa29 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-tampa-bay-buccaneers-beat-f5c1e329fa29 | {
"NO": 61.361158425774256,
"YES": 449.42288753108386
} | 0.13 | 0.522542 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,105.775269 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,005,184,748 | 0.13 | 14 | 1,698,005,142,654 | 1,698,005,142,526 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"tampa-bay-buccaneers",
"atlanta-falcons",
"nfl",
"football"
] | Yes - Buccaneers win
No - Falcons win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | null | null |
NVLv74cauKzC8j1u8x1d | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,693,131,775,600 | 1,694,317,441,625 | Will Tai Tuivasa beat Alexander Volkov at UFC 293? | will-tai-tuivasa-beat-alexander-vol | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tai-tuivasa-beat-alexander-vol | {
"NO": 4.250025951478165,
"YES": 64280.82049570389
} | 0.000058 | 0.468023 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 73,746.529447 | 0 | true | NO | 1,694,317,441,625 | 0 | 23 | 1,694,317,435,908 | 1,694,317,435,728 | -1 | [
"fighting",
"ufc",
"sports-default",
"mma",
"ufc-293",
"combat-sports"
] | Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.
If Tai Tuivasa wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Alexander Volkov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | null |
|
fYm1RicI9Uplq6fXszvB | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | Austin | Austin | 1,650,777,849,666 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1,650,820,444,169 | Does Scott Alexander have an exclusive deal with Substack, such that Manifold would not be permitted to mirror the contents of ACX? | does-scott-alexander-have-an-exclus | https://manifold.markets/Austin/does-scott-alexander-have-an-exclus | {
"NO": 10.530425113675335,
"YES": 284.7840136053288
} | 0.033849 | 0.486518 | 51.295918 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 235 | 0 | true | NO | 1,650,820,444,169 | 0.033849 | 5 | 1,650,777,849,666 | -1 | 1,650,817,334,870 | [] | I've been thinking that it would be cool to embed prediction markets directly into ACX. However, ACX is on Substack, and Substack does not support embeds.
So the alternative proposal would be to mirror ACX content on Substack directly. Stephen thinks that ACX has a deal with Substack such that their content must be exclusively hosted there; I'm very skeptical, given that Zvi crossposts his content everywhere. | N/A | null | null |
EGCxlWMrRiI6QoRADzFC | zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2 | TenShino | Punished Ten Shino | 1,686,556,098,162 | 1,690,243,140,000 | Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party get more than 90 seats in the Spanish general election (2023)? | will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-19c9d2146237 | https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-19c9d2146237 | {
"NO": 3596.8579327492876,
"YES": 84.58185596648589
} | 0.996726 | 0.877446 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,524.783459 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,259,278,350 | 1 | 7 | 1,690,201,643,461 | 1,690,201,643,326 | 1,686,556,926,998 | [
"elections-world",
"spain",
"politics-default"
] | The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) got 120 seats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election | N/A | null | ||
rtkzrT79sgsV92HUhyWU | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | PlasmaBallin | Plasma Ballin' | 1,709,262,703,313 | 1,709,877,540,000 | Will Dune: Part 2's audience score be ahead of its critic score on Rotten Tomatoes a week after release? | will-dune-part-2s-audience-score-su | https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-dune-part-2s-audience-score-su | {
"NO": 747.7107139969442,
"YES": 220.7625778642675
} | 0.879397 | 0.682828 | 340 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 650 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,878,892,768 | 0.88 | 12 | 1,709,879,038,384 | 1,709,659,992,923 | 1,709,878,934,202 | [
"rotten-tomatoes",
"media-rating-futures",
"dune",
"movies"
] | Dune: Part Two released on March 1. I will check on midnight (CT), March 8 (or as close as possible) to see the critic and audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes. Resolves YES if the audience score is strictly greater than the critic score. This means that if they're rounded to the same percentage, it still resolves NO.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two | N/A | eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2 | ||
AjySvZR3HiKxCms1hsNU | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,688,410,571,746 | 1,689,263,644,359 | Will Cofidis win another stage at the 2023 Tour de France? | will-cofidis-win-another-stage-at-t | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-cofidis-win-another-stage-at-t | {
"NO": 1724.820347338168,
"YES": 7.068944423525554
} | 0.99855 | 0.738407 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,935.995072 | 0 | true | YES | 1,689,263,644,359 | 1 | 6 | 1,689,261,511,930 | 1,689,261,511,813 | -1 | [
"road-bicycle-racing",
"tour-de-france"
] | Resolves YES if a rider from Cofidis wins at least two stages at the 2023 Tour de France.
The French team Cofidis won Stage 2 this year after 15 years without winning stages: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/02/tour-de-france-victor-lafay-wins-stage-two-cycling-adam-yates-keeps-overall-lead
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
ZYnQeJA93mF6XDXCtZRR | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,652,534,117 | 1,699,743,600,000 | Will XRP close higher on November 11 than it closed on November 10? | will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-1d78f2f3d06f | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-1d78f2f3d06f | {
"NO": 807.735038293882,
"YES": 132.98457856470378
} | 0.946585 | 0.744744 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,195.24446 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,751,750,587 | 0.95 | 15 | 1,699,751,746,627 | 1,699,741,677,542 | 1,699,751,746,228 | [
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD
Previous Close: $0.6602
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
CFTTctv10562Tb6SY8RX | wC62cjzRkZbJrakGIhQbR3ogmP43 | hyperobjektet | hyperobjektet | 1,698,613,834,366 | 1,704,063,540,000 | Will Tesla sign a collective agreement with IF Metall in Sweden in 2023? | will-tesla-sign-a-collective-agreem | https://manifold.markets/hyperobjektet/will-tesla-sign-a-collective-agreem | {
"NO": 158.10785501570132,
"YES": 1572.0274115832242
} | 0.031561 | 0.244729 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,249.299699 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,065,192,047 | 0.03 | 16 | 1,710,451,912,461 | 1,703,973,725,642 | 1,701,119,927,022 | [
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"tesla",
"automotive",
"cars",
"sweden",
"labour-market"
] | There's an ongoing labour market conflict between Tesla and the Swedish metal workers union, IF Metall.
Further reading:
https://www.ifmetall.se/aktuellt/tesla/background-information-on-if-metalls-conflict-at-tesla/
[link preview] | N/A | wC62cjzRkZbJrakGIhQbR3ogmP43 | null |
|
5qWt3JSQyYKiucjSv0xX | 3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3 | bohaska | Bohaska | 1,700,525,790,687 | 1,700,632,395,665 | Will Manifold fix the referral privacy bug in 3 days? | will-manifold-fix-the-referral-priv | https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-manifold-fix-the-referral-priv | {
"NO": 1135.4882307592898,
"YES": 48.43363061247823
} | 0.97 | 0.579684 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,642.420606 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,632,395,665 | 0.97 | 11 | 1,700,632,435,110 | 1,700,619,862,421 | 1,700,632,434,382 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-user-retention",
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"
] | So, there's a problem with referrals, which they discussed on Monday meeting
[image]Will this be fixed in 3 days? The referrer should not be able to see the real name of their referred people.
Needs to be fixed before market closes to resolve YES, otherwise, NO. | N/A | null | ||
Pcr24JtOgDTageccaz8A | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | Dustin | Dustin | 1,672,844,931,847 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhOa--qvfxnXT1JfaOu1QgWzLbV_gIUyiQ7sh4hoQ=s96-c | 1,705,891,900,394 | Will the Buffalo Bills win a Super Bowl between January 1, 2023 and April 1, 2024? | will-the-buffalo-bills-win-a-super | https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-the-buffalo-bills-win-a-super | {
"NO": 210.26324592743507,
"YES": 3742.168142838003
} | 0.017603 | 0.241795 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,127.12951 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,891,900,394 | 0.02 | 24 | 1,705,891,901,280 | 1,705,891,641,681 | -1 | [
"sports-default"
] | Resolves YES if the Bills win in the Super Bowl taking place in 2023 or the one in 2024 | N/A | MAAD1J6G9lXzi01YGIiKAvh8KAN2 | |
3Gb3nBqQxQeOGPSUf4PG | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,105,329,450 | 1,701,187,200,000 | Will CAC 40 close higher november 28th than the close of november 27th? (Daily Market) | will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-35fc1b94fee3 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-35fc1b94fee3 | {
"NO": 67.03858322318662,
"YES": 693.9192667987151
} | 0.041805 | 0.311107 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 867.203264 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,191,575,797 | 0.04 | 9 | 1,701,191,572,061 | 1,701,184,461,772 | 1,701,191,571,534 | [
"stocks",
"finance",
"sccsq4"
] | CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
bs21ofQqDblxQmNWw6qW | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | StefanXJ7 | Stefan XJ7 | 1,710,782,725,625 | 1,711,485,605,850 | Will RFK Jr. nominate a woman for his VP pick? | will-rfk-jr-nominate-a-woman-for-hi | https://manifold.markets/StefanXJ7/will-rfk-jr-nominate-a-woman-for-hi | {
"NO": 64367.98947293714,
"YES": 211.2291933437116
} | 0.999153 | 0.794662 | 800 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 68,708.789392 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,485,605,850 | 1 | 37 | 1,711,485,605,850 | 1,711,485,127,350 | 1,711,485,211,550 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"robert-f-kennedy-jr",
"us-politics"
] | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent presidential candidate) name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election?
YES: his selection is a person who identifies as "woman"
NO: his selection is a person who does not identify as "woman"
| N/A | wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03 | ||
C5XgvkYo4TYPMhGYlSyN | cxHd0FTbzbYRLjVtpggoabAu9mG2 | Dynd | Dynd | 1,693,751,692,936 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will Tesla lower the price of their cars even further this year? | will-tesla-lower-the-price-of-their | https://manifold.markets/Dynd/will-tesla-lower-the-price-of-their | {
"NO": 114.58218559283375,
"YES": 1190.193939956484
} | 0.041349 | 0.309406 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,243.528648 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,116,767,153 | 0.04 | 13 | 1,704,116,767,546 | 1,704,079,124,208 | 1,703,375,534,765 | [
"automotive",
"cars",
"tesla",
"economics-default",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | [image]Tesla has been steadily lowering the official price of their Model S and Model X models. Will we see another price drop before 2024? This assumes the car prices in the continental United States.
YES - We will see another drop in price on either of these two models this year
NO - Tesla will not drop the price of these models any further | N/A | cxHd0FTbzbYRLjVtpggoabAu9mG2 | null |
|
KimDbzjWXllXc6mbPnSa | R5EPvvH40vXRW7bmhjHkp4Y0Y112 | Shah | Shah | 1,676,586,753,630 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1sEyPe9RMg6yr44xfx2aRadoNvfzfCffEXHkoF=s96-c | 1,676,587,989,328 | Will Destiny have a 10 win streak in starcraft before he gets his first loss? | will-destiny-have-a-10-win-streak-i | https://manifold.markets/Shah/will-destiny-have-a-10-win-streak-i | {
"NO": 50.560236875241095,
"YES": 205.6318612032867
} | 0.123533 | 0.364366 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,567.738219 | 0 | true | NO | 1,676,587,989,328 | 0.12 | 19 | 1,676,587,988,681 | 1,676,587,988,586 | 1,676,587,115,612 | [
"destinygg"
] | Feb 16, 2:33pm: Will Destiny have a 10 win streak in starcraft? → Will Destiny have a 10 win streak in starcraft before he gets his first loss? | N/A | null | |
OPIjWfGIbNI7kg6a9Jnz | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,666,365,865,053 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will CFIUS block, modify, or unwind Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter by 2023? | will-cfius-block-modify-or-unwind-e | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-cfius-block-modify-or-unwind-e | {
"NO": 160.05339637898777,
"YES": 1216.4393531547446
} | 0.022413 | 0.148394 | 260 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,239.951187 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,136,646,340 | 0.02 | 11 | 1,710,451,918,658 | 1,684,408,217,516 | 1,666,368,237,616 | [
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"
] | Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) takes action to block, modify, or unwind Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter. Resolves NO at the end of 2023 otherwise.
Because CFIUS can initiate a review even after a transaction has closed, this market will stay open until the end of 2023.
Background
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-21/us-weighs-security-reviews-for-musk-deals-including-twitter-buy
Biden administration officials are discussing whether the US should subject some of Elon Musk’s ventures to national security reviews, including the deal for Twitter Inc. and SpaceX’s Starlink satellite network, according to people familiar with the matter.
One possibility is through the law governing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to review Musk’s deals and operations for national security risks, they said.
The interagency panel, known as CFIUS and overseen by the Treasury Department, reviews acquisitions of US businesses by foreign buyers. It is not clear if a CFIUS review -- which would involve assessments by the Departments of State, Defense, and Homeland Security, among others -- would offer the government a legal way to conduct a review, the people said.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Committee_on_Foreign_Investment_in_the_United_States and https://www.cooley.com/services/practice/export-controls-economic-sanctions/cfius-overview has some background on the CFIUS review process. | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | null |
|
t2JOGD0vfx35sTD2zppV | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | Austin | Austin | 1,687,556,858,035 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1,692,414,656,159 | Will Lightcone repay their $300k loan to Manifold on time? | will-lightcone-repay-their-300k-loa | https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-lightcone-repay-their-300k-loa | {
"NO": 21436.645291072484,
"YES": 1178.718663842215
} | 0.977672 | 0.706547 | 2,830 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 56,137.450832 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,414,656,159 | 0.98 | 158 | 1,710,208,062,604 | 1,692,333,741,069 | 1,692,135,960,194 | [
"manifund-5e8e6bc749f7"
] | As part of Manifund's operations, we've decided to issue a $300k loan to Lightcone Infrastructure!
This market resolves YES iff in 2 months time, Lightcone has fully repaid this with $303k received in Manifold for Charity's bank account. (I'd allow for ~week of payment processing, etc). Resolves NO if eg they default, or only repay partially, or get a loan extension.
Loan details
2 month term, 1% interest (~6.15% annualized), collateralized against Oli's personal funds
Background: we had a call with Oli yesterday to discuss Lightspeed Grants & Manifund; one surprising thing was that Lightcone itself is immediately bottlenecked on cash for their Rose Garden Inn spending; and that other funders like OpenPhil have been slow to respond
I'm excited for the structure of this as a loan (vs a grant) from Manifold for Charity. A 300k grant would have represented a significant chunk of our budget, but a loan is something we can make with much less analysis, esp given that we were possibly going to park our ~2.2m cash balance in a high yield treasury account anyways
I didn't think very deeply wrt interest rate; originally offered interest-free, before realizing that we'd be losing out on baseline yield; 1% for 2 months felt roughly reasonable. The core motive was more "help out an org we think does great work" as opposed to "purely profit seeking".
Stephen informs me the market rate for a loan like this might be 15% annualized, in which case I'd view the difference between market rate and what we offered (~2.5% - 1% over 2 months on 300k = 4.5k) to be a donation to Lightcone
Conflict of interest notes: Manifold is discussing running a forecasting conference at Rose Garden Inn sometime around Sep 2023; we'd expect to pay for the use of the venue. | N/A | null | null |
RYeZaHKhfPTwNbr0Q0y1 | 5WeDo8vEXVZv8V6g9Xttds3vrkq1 | ZhaoNan | Zhao Nan | 1,645,460,572,223 | 1,646,089,140,000 | Will Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in February 2022? | will-sergey-lavrov-and-antony-blink | https://manifold.markets/ZhaoNan/will-sergey-lavrov-and-antony-blink | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.006515 | 0.006515 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,097.011073 | 0 | true | NO | 1,646,123,971,828 | 0.006515 | 10 | 1,645,460,572,223 | -1 | -1 | [
"politics-default",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | Antony Blinken, Secretary of State for the United States of America, recently announced that he accepted an invitation for a meeting with Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation.
This is a market on whether Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in person by February 28, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). This market will resolve to "YES" if Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken meet in person at any point between February 18, 2022, and February 28, 2022 (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "NO".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be https://www.state.gov/, https://www.mid.ru/en/, and/or information from other official webpages and verified accounts from the governments of the United States of America and the Russian Federation, however credible media sources will also suffice. | N/A | null | null |
|
7s1I4rKzYtZiYLneB3E2 | mjKbaNkR8Ceqdw9AQJHdJwiqFaT2 | YoavRavid | Yoav Ravid | 1,693,314,282,916 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtclRKrXioUVDEJTutQujQyPdY1KqRQjPpbwL6MKJh4l36Y=s96-c | 1,704,035,271,983 | Will David by Angel Studios reach $60m by the end of the year? | will-david-by-angel-studios-reach-6 | https://manifold.markets/YoavRavid/will-david-by-angel-studios-reach-6 | {
"NO": 45.56051328290853,
"YES": 570.4510237355943
} | 0.026833 | 0.256634 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 477.488833 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,035,271,983 | 0.03 | 5 | 1,704,035,274,459 | 1,704,034,270,163 | 1,704,034,408,067 | [
"crowdfunding",
"technology-default",
"movies",
"animated-movies",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Angel Studios is a movie studio that fund their movie using equity crowdfunding. Their film David has raised $52,436,809 out of $60,982,236 as of creating this question in Augst 29th.
The question resolves Yes if by the end of the year this page shows an amount equal to or greater than $60,000,000. | N/A | mjKbaNkR8Ceqdw9AQJHdJwiqFaT2 | |
JOYVGPRhuPxeZaSm3fFb | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | FranklinBaldo | Franklin Baldo | 1,669,819,470,532 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1,672,559,940,000 | [Brazil Election] Will Brazil have a peaceful transition of power? | brazil-election-will-brazil-have-a-b38010e4acf2 | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/brazil-election-will-brazil-have-a-b38010e4acf2 | {
"NO": 627.9238963498456,
"YES": 299.40576918819124
} | 0.65 | 0.469642 | 450 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,064.915894 | 0 | true | YES | 1,672,608,513,252 | 0.65 | 23 | 1,672,607,031,122 | 1,672,554,448,039 | 1,672,606,589,241 | [
"politics-default",
"brazil-3292d24d179f",
"world-default"
] | It's a clone of this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/brazil-election-will-brazil-have-a)But:
I resolve NO if at least one violent death is reported in protests or demonstrations that question the legitimacy of the new government.
I will also decide NO if there is a "peaceful" coup and Lula does not become president.
| N/A | null | |
4AQiCEtngDcXXWveyMIy | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,686,324,758,642 | 1,697,784,515,087 | Mid-Bedfordshire by-election (Nadine Dorries's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat? | midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497 | {
"NO": 54.419742803191184,
"YES": 54329.971224192384
} | 0.000419 | 0.294882 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 55,850.273681 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,784,515,087 | 0 | 27 | 1,697,800,363,052 | 1,697,784,506,603 | 1,697,800,362,254 | [
"uk-politics",
"uk-conservative-party"
] | Nadine Dorries has stood down as an MP with immediate effect:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/09/nadine-dorries-stands-down-as-mp-with-immediate-effect
This should lead to an imminent by-election.
Will the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-a1c7db83e497
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-58d541c7bdd7
@/SimonGrayson/midbedfordshire-byelection-nadine-d-1a39fdaf45c7
If there is no Conservative Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.
If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A | N/A | null | ||
M5AoNv9STmNwhhvVTMS7 | oyn6Ac3vTZMpERPlYlhxHONQqSg2 | Lordoffatcats | Lordoffatcats | 1,690,654,756,683 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebPCncUW3fwPp66Ygi5n-iKiYP0HjQMqcs1H5rJrn1Rg4=s96-c | 1,704,032,763,300 | Will the government of Iceland collapse before 2024? | will-the-government-of-iceland-coll | https://manifold.markets/Lordoffatcats/will-the-government-of-iceland-coll | {
"NO": 210.7987163428586,
"YES": 1033.874991620827
} | 0.034126 | 0.147693 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,058.318185 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,032,763,300 | 0.03 | 14 | 1,704,032,764,010 | 1,702,701,060,608 | -1 | [
"politics-default",
"world-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Will resolve Yes if the parliament is declared non functional I'm Credible news before the end of 2023.
Will resolve no if parliament is still functional at the end of 2023. | N/A | oyn6Ac3vTZMpERPlYlhxHONQqSg2 | null |
lj1dRQ0rTSwBDKKmoOlo | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | mattyb | Matty B | 1,705,109,586,300 | 1,714,201,140,000 | 🐼 vs. 🪱: Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) make more at the global box office than Dune: Part Two (2024)? | -vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-make | https://manifold.markets/mattyb/-vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-make | {
"NO": 101.59156130104411,
"YES": 3204.3401155965753
} | 0.010743 | 0.255135 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,843.576389 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,220,104,069 | 0.01 | 18 | 1,714,201,140,000 | 1,714,200,115,295 | 1,714,220,094,288 | [
"movies",
"television-film",
"boxoffice",
"dune",
"animals",
"cartoons-animations",
"animated-movies",
"timothee-chalamet",
"timothee-chalamet-1f3dcb6c13ca",
"martial-arts",
"film-battles",
"pandas",
"dreamworks"
] | Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th and Dune: Part Two (2024) opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money at the global box office?
This will Resolve both movies are out of theatres, or one has been deemed to have mathematically eliminated the other.
Also bet on
[markets] | N/A | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||
x2ncgUWFihM4Ch5GJ9W0 | vJBqfkBNMyNkhynhKtCOHuovGbY2 | MichaelBlume | Mike Blume | 1,672,967,737,022 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi5v7H-1kFkIa9wgaAZZ6vxS4zu6qCzfHKTitxBwg=s96-c | 1,673,070,416,733 | Will the next Speaker of the House be elected within 30 ballots? | will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-cebea93804f7 | https://manifold.markets/MichaelBlume/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-cebea93804f7 | {
"NO": 5099.514802197239,
"YES": 143.82947150544226
} | 0.987617 | 0.692265 | 550 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,985.856098 | 0 | true | YES | 1,673,070,416,733 | 0.99 | 28 | 1,673,070,351,727 | 1,673,070,351,625 | 1,673,069,874,424 | [
"118th-congress",
"speaker-of-the-house-election"
] | Like https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-038cdc36cc58# but 30.
Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected on one of the first 30 ballots, otherwise NO.
Fine print: Only the ballots to elect the first Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market.
Close date updated to 2023-02-09 8:59 pm | N/A | null | |
pgo7J3waICweMokvfG7M | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,642,278,812 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,678,938,846,070 | Will Vaush's clip "VAUSH EPICALLY HUMILIATES A NAZI IN THIS DEBATE" reach 25k views by 3/18 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-clip-vaush-epically-hum | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-clip-vaush-epically-hum | {
"NO": 10556.514821640403,
"YES": 14.825454140889633
} | 0.999566 | 0.763842 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,518 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,938,846,070 | 1 | 3 | 1,678,938,841,977 | 1,678,938,841,271 | -1 | [
"vaush",
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/joZ9Tb0j4R0
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | null |
5yxVWmCEbk6S4LESTo2g | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | JCDM | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | 1,703,886,955,184 | 1,711,943,940,000 | Will Jimmy Carter Die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st) | will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first | https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first | {
"NO": 272.2039233483359,
"YES": 8307.815275446716
} | 0.010154 | 0.238427 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 32,924.854454 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,944,634,268 | 0.01 | 38 | 1,711,943,940,000 | 1,711,858,701,742 | 1,709,270,667,875 | [
"jimmy-carter",
"death-markets"
] | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo) | N/A | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | ||
RePp0GZLKtDBLZE3ylUA | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,694,704,930,740 | 1,694,791,800,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 15th September than it closed on 14th September? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-c94b72305684 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-c94b72305684 | {
"NO": 2982.500956653306,
"YES": 132.30494700219734
} | 0.992532 | 0.854988 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,365.28216 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,793,195,088 | 0.99 | 13 | 1,710,462,498,537 | 1,694,791,591,848 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 15th September than it did on Thursday 14th September?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
uCBB4AWMJD18DoRdIIbo | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | MatthewBarnett | Matthew Barnett | 1,658,096,991,440 | 1,704,096,000,000 | Will Metaculus or a related organization set up a regular Turing test contest before the end of 2023? | will-metaculus-or-a-related-organiz | https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-metaculus-or-a-related-organiz | {
"NO": 412.6702423802627,
"YES": 2724.9381691647554
} | 0.069924 | 0.331744 | 800 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,985.835903 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,340,122,911 | 0.07 | 43 | 1,705,340,123,178 | 1,704,087,274,082 | 1,705,340,098,062 | [
"ai",
"metaculus",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Recently, I [wrote a question on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11861/when-will-ai-pass-a-difficult-turing-test/) about when a difficult Turing test will first be passed by some AI. In the comments, I proposed setting up a yearly Turing test contest in order to ground the question in something concrete and resolvable. Anthony Aguirre, who co-founded Metaculus, wrote,
I'd add that I think Metaculus, or FLI, or someone should set up such a contest regularly
Gaia Dempsey, the CEO of Metaculus, replied,
I suggest we run it at Metaculus, and have a senior advisor (or two) from FLI on the project. We’ve talked about it before and it keeps coming up and feeling valuable.
This question resolves to YES if prior to January 1st 2024, Metaculus or another organization that Anthony Aguirre is officially associated with, has conducted a Turing test trial, with the intent of measuring top AI capabilities over the years. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
Clarification: A "Turing test trial" does not need to be called exactly that. All that needs to be true is that Metaculus hosts a contest with the intent to measure top AI capabilities.
| N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
uEhs7Kw0QfQW6Stl5YVd | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | Pepe | Pepe | 1,666,464,184,038 | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will more than 4500 objects be launched into space in 2023? | will-more-than-4500-objects-be-laun | https://manifold.markets/Pepe/will-more-than-4500-objects-be-laun | {
"NO": 146.87156195435676,
"YES": 3833.313526008082
} | 0.023362 | 0.384363 | 600 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,764.271276 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,423,440,041 | 0.02 | 21 | 1,704,423,440,364 | 1,704,068,226,281 | 1,704,405,919,979 | [
"space",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Over 1,800 objects were launched into space in 2021 according to Our World in Data. The annual number has grown greatly in recent years, the first time more than 200 objects were launched into space in a single year was in 2013.
Our World in Data uses the United Nations Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space as a data source, which is maintained by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA). UNOOSA describes the history of the register as follows
Since 1962, the United Nations has maintained a Register of Objects Launched into Outer Space. Originally established as a mechanism to aid the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in its discussions on the political, legal and technical issues concerning outer space, the evolution of international space law resulted in space object registration becoming a means of identifying which States' bear international responsibility and liability for space objects.
. . .
To date over 88% of all satellites, probes, landers, crewed spacecraft and space station flight elements launched into Earth orbit or beyond have been registered with the Secretary-General.
According to the Our World in Data the chart Annual number of objects launched into space includes
satellites, probes, landers, crewed spacecrafts, and space station flight elements launched into Earth orbit or beyond.
Will more than 4500 objects be launched into space in 2023?
This question will resolve based on the global number of objects launched into space in 2023 according to Our World In Data. For example, this figure was 1,807 in 2021.
For this question, "launching" into space is not restricted to conventional rocketry, but includes all means of travelling off Earth, including space elevators, mass drivers, space tethers/skyhooks, and other future launch methods.
The resolution will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by Our World in Data; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.
If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, I may use an alternative credible source of data, or resolve as NA. | N/A | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | null |
|
JFa3lz4aVIwkIot0Pi9g | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,116,443,994 | 1,704,313,500,000 | Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-03 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-533909649190 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-533909649190 | {
"NO": 106.28470315299126,
"YES": 122.94114040180708
} | 0.150463 | 0.170034 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 83.614434 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,352,138,858 | 0.15 | 5 | 1,704,352,139,084 | 1,704,295,202,854 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-03 20:25 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-03 - 22:25 (UTC)
14:25 (Los Angeles)
17:25 (New York)
23:25 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 06:45
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
lzDq7jagbr36meekv820 | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,707,516,274,238 | 1,708,113,600,000 | Will Google close higher than 150.22 on February 16? | will-google-close-higher-than-15022 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-google-close-higher-than-15022 | {
"NO": 336.9008476363673,
"YES": 1174.443164333935
} | 0.045827 | 0.143415 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,284.75074 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,121,648,731 | 0.05 | 26 | 1,708,121,649,011 | 1,708,112,132,705 | 1,708,121,622,621 | [
"technology-default",
"keen-stocks",
"finance",
"entertainment",
"stock-marketweekly",
"stocks-league-beta",
"stocks",
"world-default",
"gaming",
"economics-default"
] | Alphabet Inc Class C
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
GOOG closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 16
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
dqlGytAOyI7sAnYtkQdG | wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2 | REP | Ryan P | 1,670,904,437,016 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will CZ (CEO of Binance) be indicted in the US before the end of 2023? | will-cz-ceo-of-binance-be-indicted | https://manifold.markets/REP/will-cz-ceo-of-binance-be-indicted | {
"NO": 593.8877745317144,
"YES": 3398.4037253607116
} | 0.063986 | 0.281185 | 1,095 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 28,467.696979 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,084,027,976 | 0.06 | 71 | 1,704,084,028,555 | 1,702,950,831,185 | 1,700,899,756,443 | [
"crypto-speculation",
"crypto-news",
"finance",
"ceos-of-companies",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/12/12/us-prosecutors-look-to-charge-binance-and-cz-for-possible-money-laundering-violations-reuters/
Resolves to YES if CZ is indicted in the US anytime before 12/31/23
Resolves to NO if CZ is not indicted in the US before 12/31/23 | N/A | wbmLRoB38FN6lYbtQQpqHUzOXzz2 | ||
hdfx3aGXOksmbFTe8TR6 | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,678,484,475,556 | 1,678,741,706,767 | Will Silicon Valley Bank uninsured depositors recover at least 80% of their deposits within 1 year? | will-silicon-valley-bank-uninsured-1307c11fab24 | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-silicon-valley-bank-uninsured-1307c11fab24 | {
"NO": 4917.2469426842035,
"YES": 86.38967227055426
} | 0.996465 | 0.832012 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,197.157473 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,741,706,767 | 1 | 9 | 1,678,741,705,491 | 1,678,731,873,646 | 1,678,741,698,992 | [
"svb-crisis",
"silicon-valley-bankruptcy-svb"
] | Resolves YES if uninsured depositors of Silicon Valley Bank recover at least 80% of their uninsured funds by March 10, 2024, according to official announcements or reporting by reliable media publications. Otherwise NO.
Context: Silicon Valley Bank was closed Friday morning by state regulators and put under the control of the FDIC, after a bank run and capital crisis.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html | N/A | null | ||
rPDXfjHHlBDoyTGmUtfa | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,694,979,664,237 | 1,695,122,100,000 | Will BA flight 442 from London to Amsterdam on 2023-09-19 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-b77599c17ed5 | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-b77599c17ed5 | {
"NO": 627.4128934777927,
"YES": 428.79178034297263
} | 0.834891 | 0.775574 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,046.494734 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,167,886,722 | 0.83 | 16 | 1,695,121,078,342 | 1,695,121,078,037 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/scmphwsk | N/A | null | null |
|
dM9QU3KyXU0ZlORPpdsx | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | DanMan314 | Dan | 1,708,625,775,247 | 1,713,390,068,374 | Will Stable Diffusion 3 be able to get DeWeese lab's "red conical block on top of..." prompt a majority of the time? | will-stable-diffusion-3-be-able-to | https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-stable-diffusion-3-be-able-to | {
"NO": 599.8755154236944,
"YES": 263.3160845546123
} | 0.727368 | 0.539403 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 803.245344 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,390,068,374 | 0.73 | 21 | 1,713,390,113,481 | 1,709,500,803,729 | 1,713,390,109,222 | [
"openai",
"ai",
"stable-diffusion-3"
] | Gary Marcus made a post discussing the Imagen and DALLE-2 model's inability to fully grasp language, particularly around relational undestanding of objects in a prompt: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/horse-rides-astronaut
Stability AI just released Stable Diffusion 3 (https://stability.ai/news/stable-diffusion-3), which they claim has "greatly improved performance in multi-subject prompts, image quality, and spelling abilities".
Once publicly available, I will run this prompt from DeWeese lab that is discussed heavily in the post:
A red conical block on top of a grey cubic block on top of a blue cylindrical block, with a green cubic block nearby
I will produce 10 images. If 5 or more of the images match the prompt exactly, following the color, shape, and positions specified in the prompt, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
I will not bet in this market in case there is ambiguity on some of the images. | N/A | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | ||
2nUHXXXmQ5NweL0pJ66j | d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3 | jcb | jcb | 1,678,481,651,057 | 1,704,096,000,000 | Will there be reports of fraud connected to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank? | will-there-be-reports-of-fraud-conn | https://manifold.markets/jcb/will-there-be-reports-of-fraud-conn | {
"NO": 271.8235725864295,
"YES": 880.2193236294335
} | 0.10663 | 0.278761 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,047.447251 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,126,449,974 | 0.11 | 18 | 1,704,126,450,283 | 1,701,099,439,200 | 1,704,126,443,632 | [
"svb-crisis",
"silicon-valley-bankruptcy-svb",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Michael Burry (of "the big short") compared Silicon Valley Bank to Enron: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-investor-michael-burry-silicon-valley-bank-collapse-enron-2023-3
By the end of 2023, will at least 2 Wikipedia-notable publications report on alleged fraud which contributed to the bank's collapse?
Speculation will not count. Sources alleging improper practices leading to the collapse will count. Whether a particular article qualifies will be at my judgement. I will not bet in this market. | N/A | d6La9emHJsTwmxPOZ2UdSYrlr6I3 | ||
AqeD2tvZMKwEblf0FcoR | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,429,207,058 | 1,707,474,000,000 | Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-44b241774b45 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-44b241774b45 | {
"NO": 68.25252063291357,
"YES": 80
} | 0.135635 | 0.155354 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,585,603,312 | 0.14 | 2 | 1,707,585,603,626 | 1,707,435,072,927 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-09 10:20 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 12:20 (UTC)
04:20 (Los Angeles)
07:20 (New York)
13:20 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
GoOBGgQpes3mcNlr8uIT | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,697,123,080,932 | 1,697,296,516,581 | Will W6 flight 4218 from Tel Aviv-Yafo to Bourgas on 2023-10-14 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)? | will-w6-flight-4218-from-tel-avivya | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-w6-flight-4218-from-tel-avivya | {
"NO": 405.59133288353087,
"YES": 141.93470845734532
} | 0.948855 | 0.866528 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,163.881799 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,296,516,581 | 0.95 | 9 | 1,697,294,274,344 | 1,697,294,274,067 | -1 | [] | !!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/yhs5nua6 | N/A | null | null |
|
WuFAjuE026RcivBf27za | 4YGKtEPKfLcAPZTdIZuUe48c9s23 | phl43 | Philippe Lemoine | 1,664,196,085,396 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZuco0X0Xyza_8Q45IZKieYBa2TdR5nPzEXT72UQgj=s96-c | 1,677,690,000,000 | Will the price of natural gas on the Dutch TTF spot market rise above 200€/MWh between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023? | will-the-price-of-natural-gas-on-th | https://manifold.markets/phl43/will-the-price-of-natural-gas-on-th | {
"NO": 98.13297847121186,
"YES": 4720.598291265979
} | 0.009686 | 0.319957 | 540 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,334.602238 | 0 | true | NO | 1,677,693,820,819 | 0.01 | 29 | 1,677,667,344,044 | 1,677,667,343,886 | -1 | [
"economics-default"
] | The question will resolve to "YES" if, at any point between December 1, 2022 and March 1, 2023, day-ahead or weekend contracts on the Dutch TTF spot market are traded at 200€/MWh or more at the end of the day according to the data published by EEX (https://www.powernext.com/spot-market-data). | N/A | null | null |
wHV6Jh1VWz63tQy5FyDo | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | Tetraspace | Tetra | 1,654,186,277,518 | 1,663,929,668,214 | Will California AB 2097 "Residential and commercial development: parking requirements" pass in the 2022 legislative session? | will-california-ab-2097-residential | https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-california-ab-2097-residential | {
"NO": 770.1549134191835,
"YES": 12.984400704014192
} | 0.98342 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,344.453239 | 0 | true | YES | 1,663,929,668,214 | 0.98342 | 7 | 1,663,926,620,653 | 1,663,926,616,924 | 1,663,893,246,593 | [
"politics-default",
"yimby",
"california"
] | AB 2097 is a bill authored by Laura Friedman, co-authored by Weiner, Skinner and Lee, and sponsored by California YIMBY that eliminates parking minimums for housing in areas within half a mile of public transit.
Bill: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220AB2097
California YIMBY page: https://cayimby.org/ab-2097/
On 26th May 2022, AB 2097 passed the assembly floor 47-20 and is now in the state senate.
Close date updated to 2022-09-30 12:00 am | N/A | null | null |
|
OPdJ7E9aRhNN9iVeefpL | oyGkV0RewCY5o6UiSUe72S6LxR32 | DavidGreenberg | Tape Dave | 1,698,834,659,632 | 1,703,624,613,172 | Will Apple resolve their loss to Masimo Corp., or get a stay, and continue to sell all current watches after Xmas 2023? | will-apple-resolve-their-loss-to-ma | https://manifold.markets/DavidGreenberg/will-apple-resolve-their-loss-to-ma | {
"NO": 86.74123573941418,
"YES": 325.8089425772058
} | 0.299393 | 0.616139 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,288.825344 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,624,613,172 | 0.3 | 13 | 1,703,624,633,991 | 1,703,273,992,577 | 1,703,624,633,185 | [
"apple",
"technology-default",
"apple-watch-ultra",
"christmas",
"international-trade",
"watches",
"new-york-times",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Apple pulled their watches prior to Christmas and they were not on sale after Christmas through Apple.
The Biden administration allowed the ban to proceed.
And the Custom’s office will not make their decision until the 12th of January.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-administration-allows-us-trade-tribunals-ban-apple-watch-imports-2023-12-26/
So I’m resolving this market to no.
///:
From the New York Time's Opinion piece by Peter Coy: Apple Inc. sells a lot of smart watches during the holidays, but this year its sales of most Apple Watch models may well drop 100 percent — to literally zero — the day after Christmas. That’s because of a ruling Thursday by the International Trade Commission that most Apple Watches contain parts that infringe on patents held by Masimo Corp., a producer of medical technology, and its sister company, Cercacor Laboratories Inc., both of Irvine, Calif. An import ban and a cease-and-desist order on sales both take effect on Dec. 26 — unless President Biden reverses the decision by Dec. 25, which appears unlikely. (Presidents rarelyoverrule the independent, nonpartisan agency, which was founded in 1916 as the U.S. Tariff Commission.)
gift link to article here https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/opinion/apple-watch-masimo.html?unlocked_article_code=1.7Ew.L4Sd.dtrnvjbZ8ZbB&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
[image] | N/A | oyGkV0RewCY5o6UiSUe72S6LxR32 | null |
|
VihD4NMDydOHLPjNQNHb | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,494,018,272 | 1,684,158,216,081 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2023 Italian Open (aka the Rome Masters) in Tennis? | will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2023-it | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-carlos-alcaraz-win-the-2023-it | {
"NO": 0.8268819175245881,
"YES": 18867.008496887094
} | 0.000042 | 0.487196 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 19,034.041388 | 0 | true | NO | 1,684,158,216,081 | 0 | 5 | 1,684,158,188,331 | 1,684,158,188,202 | 1,684,156,739,207 | [
"tennis",
"carlos-alcaraz"
] | If he wins the Men's singles competition at the tournament, this market will resolve to YES.
The Italian Open is also known as the Rome Masters or the Internazionali BNL d'Italia. | N/A | null | ||
p48SC6gdU9x6WnBZvvWS | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,454,824,077 | 1,702,051,200,000 | Will DAX Performance Index close higher december 8th than the close of december 1th? (Weekly Market) | will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-8e3c08f88955 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-8e3c08f88955 | {
"NO": 2190.6283195984583,
"YES": 94.71659585611037
} | 0.987781 | 0.777544 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,665.226202 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,055,741,989 | 0.99 | 9 | 1,702,055,738,760 | 1,702,047,195,988 | 1,702,055,738,080 | [
"finance",
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | DAX closes 6 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
XalqpHu3riqMXTsBJ9fO | p2gRLZmcHseBb08PwCwHjF5Unum1 | JDF | JDF | 1,691,355,453,482 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJDF%2FJDMFdykkkv.jfif?alt=media&token=b8d45886-24ea-457c-ac89-4ebaafcad29d | 1,696,111,140,000 | Will all iPhone models announced by Apple in September 2023 contain exactly one USB-C port and no other ports? | will-all-iphone-models-released-by | https://manifold.markets/JDF/will-all-iphone-models-released-by | {
"NO": 7518.650292531986,
"YES": 209.6722938682883
} | 0.995307 | 0.855383 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,533.824595 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,139,733,305 | 1 | 22 | 1,696,061,249,687 | 1,696,061,248,983 | 1,694,545,827,601 | [
"apple",
"iphone"
] | This resolves YES iff all iPhone models that are announced in September 2023 (according to the date in the "announced" column of this table):
1) contain exactly one charging port;
2) that charging port is a USB-C port.
For example, if the USB-C port is present only in the Pro iPhone models, this would resolve NO. | N/A | null | null |
uquMvvBt96u6EwBAjpUl | cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2 | admissions | lukres | 1,692,995,368,378 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2 | 1,696,111,140,000 | Will France carry airstrikes on Niger by the end of September? | will-france-carry-airstrikes-on-nig | https://manifold.markets/admissions/will-france-carry-airstrikes-on-nig | {
"NO": 209.7615940460697,
"YES": 5403.6541158015325
} | 0.008077 | 0.173388 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,366.343644 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,149,694,811 | 0.01 | 20 | 1,695,887,098,148 | 1,695,887,097,874 | 1,693,575,310,360 | [
"geopolitics",
"africa",
"world-default",
"wars"
] | Drones do not count
"The French Government has stated it does not recognized the Authority of the Military Junta in Niger and that it Rejects the “48-Hour Window” given by the Junta for the French Ambassador to Niger, Sylvain Itte to leave the Country." | N/A | null | null |
it9qhfdY1a0H0YRbuZZE | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,429,046,954 | 1,707,547,500,000 | Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-10 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6f3fcb9c351b | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6f3fcb9c351b | {
"NO": 68.59028168293005,
"YES": 80
} | 0.112715 | 0.129045 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,585,638,302 | 0.11 | 2 | 1,707,585,638,531 | 1,707,435,017,961 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-10 06:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-10 - 08:45 (UTC)
00:45 (Los Angeles)
03:45 (New York)
09:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
yrJOiTFfYfi4X1gV6cZ3 | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | Lion | Lion | 1,713,537,528,538 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c | 1,714,141,765,979 | [short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,100.00 before 4,900.00? | short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-39c0f7afcb68 | https://manifold.markets/Lion/short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-39c0f7afcb68 | {
"NO": 5309.281876565911,
"YES": 150.76311649910596
} | 0.989979 | 0.737211 | 500 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,568.39699 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,141,765,979 | 0.99 | 24 | 1,714,141,789,003 | 1,714,140,578,821 | 1,714,141,750,588 | [
"finance",
"sp-500-changes",
"stocks",
"sp-500-439f18dbc885"
] | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 4,900.00 or 5,100.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-19).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,900.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,100.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source. | N/A | Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73 | null |
19bB4aJ3W8XHJ8IpjTS3 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,412,212,698 | 1,703,487,600,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-25 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-46f1b56c091a | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-46f1b56c091a | {
"NO": 80.00000000000001,
"YES": 45.50401061467798
} | 0.389184 | 0.266009 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,535,791,666 | 0.39 | 2 | 1,703,486,917,158 | 1,703,486,917,017 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-25 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-25 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
PA9baZofXHsOISfJSpj7 | Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2 | Jenny | Jenny | 1,645,993,857,084 | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022? | will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc | https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc | {
"NO": 148.05035274574803,
"YES": 1144.7520251191202
} | 0.004812 | 0.036042 | 160.68262 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,471.8321 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,604,932,948 | 0 | 54 | 1,671,680,324,584 | 1,671,680,324,428 | 1,664,415,455,687 | [
"wars",
"world-default",
"ukraine",
"russia",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | It's not fair that there are/were so many markets about Russians entering Kyiv, but none about Ukrainians entering Moscow. Now there is. See also: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm | N/A | null | null |
|
bOlGfcLdE7tXUoCBLzUA | ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2 | yaboi69 | yaboi69 | 1,676,369,280,305 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrkhc2TKCy7PIjvAR4cY1PaG4FZxwtS9pTHlgxh=s96-c | 1,704,063,540,000 | Average prices for office real estate in San Francisco will fall below $55 psf in 2023 (per Avison Young) | average-prices-for-office-real-esta | https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/average-prices-for-office-real-esta | {
"NO": 86.29852267764242,
"YES": 92.99229146716951
} | 0.43 | 0.448398 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 75.125909 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,283,159,591 | 0.43 | 3 | 1,705,283,159,851 | 1,686,510,432,344 | 1,705,283,149,247 | [
"allin-podcast-2023-predictions",
"allin-podcast",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"resolution-pending"
] | Resolves YES if the Average Direct Asking Rate, Full Service for commercial office real estate in San Francisco falls below $55 psf (per Avison Young) for any quarter in 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
The preferred source for resolution are quarterly AY San Francisco office market reports. If they become unavailable, the market will resolve N/A.
The $55 psf threshold is a proxy for a “firesale” and a very poorly performing asset group – about a 30% reduction from Q4 2022 $78.18.
Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”
David Sacks: “(Worst performing asset in 2023.) I think office towers in San Francisco; that is some serious toxic debt, 27% vacancy rates and growing as leases roll. I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon because no one can eat there. (…) Specifically the office towers, because no one wants to be in those skyscraper buildings south of market (…). There's going to be some major fire sales. Remember, this is the hottest commercial real estate market in the country a few years ago and now it's the worst. | N/A | ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2 | |
BxPopFmjnmEC6eIRsT9J | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,081,428,609 | 1,703,890,800,000 | Will XRP close higher on December 29 than it closed on December 28? | will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6e1b5b989e5d | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6e1b5b989e5d | {
"NO": 74.83939814495338,
"YES": 696.6817041960277
} | 0.048227 | 0.320512 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 772.888933 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,904,957,795 | 0.05 | 9 | 1,703,904,958,205 | 1,703,880,029,532 | 1,703,904,953,054 | [
"hawsbollah",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
n3tSwah1xCkocqCm8Rba | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | MetaculusBot | Metaculus Bot | 1,646,513,377,672 | 1,654,055,940,000 | Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1? | will-russia-control-kharkiv-on-june | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-russia-control-kharkiv-on-june | {
"NO": 87.91950535372324,
"YES": 314.8567900550378
} | 0.032309 | 0.106797 | 100.374915 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,712.843062 | 0 | true | NO | 1,654,218,747,778 | 0.032309 | 15 | 1,653,085,195,010 | 1,653,085,193,739 | 1,648,339,699,616 | [
"metaculus",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10056/will-russia-control-kharkiv-on-june-1/ | N/A | null | null |
|
fZNCcqWfUdc5CF3JRwQf | 0ftSrtKfyMM1lGGf12np4Gpg1Z93 | Wh1tey | Wh1tey | 1,677,684,046,789 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp55LLeCatZrfnHiXZCjXUuUsm_e3TIKc2CY-oIZ-w=s96-c | 1,677,699,978,664 | Will Team Aster beat Tundra Esports in Lower Bracket Round 1 of the Dota 2 Lima Major? | will-team-aster-beat-tundra-esports | https://manifold.markets/Wh1tey/will-team-aster-beat-tundra-esports | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.5 | 0.5 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,699,978,664 | 0.5 | 0 | 1,677,684,046,789 | -1 | -1 | [
"gaming"
] | Game time - March 1, 2023 - 10:00 EST
https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Lima_Major/2023 | N/A | null | |
U2pgapluoTH7C95s4jFW | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,684,446,773,952 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,684,469,700,000 | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win Game 1 of the NHL 2023 Eastern Conference Finals against the Florida Panthers? | will-the-carolina-hurricanes-win-ga | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-carolina-hurricanes-win-ga | {
"NO": 183.2662010955767,
"YES": 187.37709762765542
} | 0.541576 | 0.547078 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,249.480443 | 0 | true | NO | 1,684,500,264,025 | 0.54 | 7 | 1,684,473,819,503 | 1,684,469,098,843 | 1,684,473,815,974 | [
"sports-default",
"nhl",
"hockey"
] | This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends. Since this game ends late at night, I will probably resolve it the following morning.
https://www.espn.com/nhl/game/_/gameId/401548431 | N/A | null |