Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

gRgIuULbveUbjoXanXVn

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 18th October than it closed on 17th October?

will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-ccb645c3ac0b

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-ccb645c3ac0b

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 18th October than it did on Tuesday 17th October? The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough! Some longer term FTSE 100 markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov @/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov

N/A

u3cntXgOga0sg6h3lqq8

uwmcXrTKHvZGrYj9PNtZcul0jVk2

CarlosZ

Carlos

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteRKNg0wrYThF9UK_nPrbf7uGja2Rg3O2aACUVSqao5=s96-c

Will Max Verstappen win all F1 races from July23 to the end of 2023 season?

will-max-verstappen-win-all-f1-race

https://manifold.markets/CarlosZ/will-max-verstappen-win-all-f1-race

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

The question will resolve YES if Max Verstappen wins all the F1 races from July23 to the end of 2023 season. The question will resolve NO if any other pilot wins any of the races between July23 to the end of 2023 season. Question closes before Netherlands 2023 GP.

N/A

uGbuwoLXTH1yp0ldw3au

1CRaxVu0I9XNhYzRLh18yVEKa4G2

Domer

Domer

Will there be another significant change at OpenAI by Thanksgiving? (Altman, board, etc.)

will-there-be-another-significant-c

https://manifold.markets/Domer/will-there-be-another-significant-c

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Will there be a significant leadership change (from where it is Monday morning 11/20, 9:30am EST) in OpenAI before Thanksgiving? Significant leadership changes includes JUST the following: the interim CEO being replaced, the interim CEO promoted to full-time CEO, a co-CEO being added, a board member leaving, or a board member being added. Basically any of the very top level leadership being altered in any way. Board members who are added but have no voting power will NOT count. Market ends Wednesday at 11:59pm EST.

N/A

LBXmcqKUHdJU7D1KUhw3

S3quHYCnS6Xo4WBpy2j6Iw8QkCF3

SarkanyVar

Sárkány Vár

Will Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej make landfall anywhere as a Severe Cyclonic Storm or stronger?

will-extremely-severe-cyclonic-stor-7826ef0440ee

https://manifold.markets/SarkanyVar/will-extremely-severe-cyclonic-stor-7826ef0440ee

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Background Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tej is a tropical cyclone currently in the North Indian ocean, recently intensifying into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm. It is currently at a strength equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. [image][image]Tej is forecast to decrease in strength as Tej approaches the southern Arabian coast. [image]According to the India Meteorological Department, the rough equivalent to the upper end of a tropical storm is the Severe Cyclonic Storm, with a wind speed of 48-63 kt. Will Tej therefore make landfall as a Severe Cyclonic Storm or stronger? Resolution Criteria Resolves YES if Tej makes landfall anywhere as a Severe Cyclonic Storm or stronger, including Socotra. according to India Meteorological Department (IMD). Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the IMD before the dissipation, degeneration below cyclonic storm strength, or extratropical transition of Tej. Will resolve based on IMD data, with supplemented data from JTWC if necessary. I will not bet on this market.

N/A

wf2rBPvAjpwRBEf85vAK

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will XLM close higher on November 8 than it closed on November 7?

will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-8

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-8

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD Previous Close: $0.1267 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$ [link preview]

N/A

snSWa2YAzLKpTiZa9kJU

HxENMbrEyaVidRJrcBWdDR6u0H23

Hedgehog

🦔

Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?

will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe

https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

“AGI safety effort” can be demonstrated by either: At least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI. Papers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution. arXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there’s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers. Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above. One blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support. This must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own. Will resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening.

N/A

DnqCG9YWHkX3sA7TJa1Q

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thomasf

Thomas

Will Apple stock close on Friday above the opening on this Monday?

will-apple-stock-close-on-friday-ab

https://manifold.markets/thomasf/will-apple-stock-close-on-friday-ab

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This Monday (20st November, 2023) opening price: $189.89 Friday (24th November, 2023) closing price source: https://investor.apple.com/stock-price/default.aspx

N/A

fosWzVK9Mxk4Gd5FtF1W

wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2

Gigacasting

Gigacasting

Will SBF spend at least one month in jail?

will-sbf-spend-at-least-one-month-i

https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-sbf-spend-at-least-one-month-i

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Related: [markets]

N/A

2ZqaCGi7M9PoApLWQDHr

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-01 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d3058baac98

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d3058baac98

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-01 20:25 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-01 - 22:25 (UTC)       14:25 (Los Angeles)       17:25 (New York)       23:25 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 06:45        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

9f0Z3NPkoM1vNdfMVwQ6

FBBsw04k8NXQ0zumrbRcrs6syNm2

BillRutherford

Bill

Will a book that portrays a negative light on the Biden presidency, written by Bob Woodward, be published by March 2024?

will-a-book-that-portrays-a-negativ

https://manifold.markets/BillRutherford/will-a-book-that-portrays-a-negativ

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Bob Woodward has written books about each US President since Reagan. These are widely acclaimed. A negative book about Biden could help doom a second term.

N/A

FBBsw04k8NXQ0zumrbRcrs6syNm2

hRtGVVMH2YFpqRkRjCAf

UOU0OiRQ7VMrRdDsrG9P7eyAKak1

apetresc

Adrian Petrescu

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbdAPaziJ7ZFfwat2TUezvgcl2EnS0W1gDSDAVj=s96-c

Will PokeMMO release the Johto region by June 21st, 2023?

will-pokemmo-release-the-johto-regi

https://manifold.markets/apetresc/will-pokemmo-release-the-johto-regi

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

The developers had originally committed to a release date of "Spring 2023", and June 21st is (officially) the last day of spring. In order for this market to resolve to YES, the Johto region must be available to use as a starting region for a new character on the live server of PokeMMO by the end of day of June 21st EST. Being live on a dev server or PTS does not count Not every possible feature of Johto (apricorns, post-game Kanto, etc) needs to be available yet, as long as Johto can be travelled to and selected as a starting region for a new character

N/A

bKW5kJB9YnrlRJOkdcNq

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

MatthewBarnett

Matthew Barnett

Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 300,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2025?

will-an-entity-be-confirmed-to-have

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-entity-be-confirmed-to-have

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The demand for high-performance computing hardware, particularly NVIDIA's H100 Tensor Core GPU, has seen a surge with the rise of advanced artificial intelligence applications. Major investments, like the one seen with Inflection AI which purchased 22,000 H100 GPUs, emphasize the increasing need for these GPUs in large-scale AI projects. Will any entity, anywhere in the world, be confirmed to have placed an order for a cumulative total of at least 300,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs by January 1st, 2025? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2025, credible evidence confirms that an entity, such as a government, corporation, non-profit, university, or single individual: Placed a valid order for a cumulative total of at least 300,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs. Provided proof of this purchase intent through: a. Official statements or press releases from the entity itself, NVIDIA, or any other relevant stakeholder. b. Credible news reports or articles from well-established media outlets known for reliable reporting in the tech industry. c. Financial reports or documentation that disclose the intended purchase quantity of GPUs. Made this purchase intent for any purpose, including research, deployment in data centers, commercial product development, or any other use. Evidence of intent to purchase from secondary markets, i.e., intending to buy from a third party that is not NVIDIA, will also be considered valid as long as the entity's total intended GPU order reaches the 300,000 threshold. All cards labeled "H100" will count as an H100 GPU for the purpose of this question. Dual H100 NVL cards count as two H100 GPUs for the purpose of this question. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure the criteria are met and that there is solid evidence of an entity's purchase for the specified number of GPUs.

N/A

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

WlRK8Ynk9c8JNpF1gXJq

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

MetaculusBot

Metaculus Bot

Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?

will-swedens-government-initiate-th

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-swedens-government-initiate-th

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10255/sweden-initiates-joining-nato-in-2022/ Expected resolution: Jan 1, 2023 Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm

N/A

1CmxVvhnwwegJv7WWCLS

1jjQeFcE5YV4LSMw4JHMf7QR5Ls2

CalebParikh

Caleb Parikh

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu_NbFHaBELo0o7qjpNrw048WOuPyd-7kAkV9zT8=s96-c

Will Joel Sims arrive at my friends NYE party on time?

will-joel-sims-arrive-at-my-friends

https://manifold.markets/CalebParikh/will-joel-sims-arrive-at-my-friends

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Joel is a person who is often late to things though maybe he has been more on time recently. Dec 31, 7:17pm: Will Joel Sims arrive at my friends NYE party on time? → Will Joel Sims arrive at my friends NYE party on time?

N/A

P4jnSzjeeqYQfgAl9mGr

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

Joshua

Joshua

Will the All-Pay Ponzi Lottery have a higher total bounty than the First Ponzi Scheme at the time the lottery pays out?

will-the-allpay-ponzi-lottery-have

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-the-allpay-ponzi-lottery-have

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://manifold.markets/EricBolton/manifolds-first-ever-allpay-ponzi-l https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/manifolds-first-completely-legal-po This question resolves YES if the total bounty amount at the end of the ponzi lottery is greater than the total bounty amount of the original ponzi scheme. This is the value to the right of the slash, so currently 54,257 for the orignal scheme: [image]

N/A

u0O2mVp0HNWdjLPXMaZ0

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

Will the Blumhouse horror film "Imaginary" receive a CinemaScore of B- or above?

will-the-blumhouse-horror-film-imag

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-blumhouse-horror-film-imag

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market will resolve YES if "Imaginary" (releasing on March 8th) receives a CinemaScore of B- or above. For reference, here are some past Blumhouse horror film CinemaScores: "Five Nights at Freddy's": A- "M3GAN": B "Night Swim": C You can search the CinemaScore website for more examples. Other details: CinemaScore is a firm that measures the audience reception of new releases by polling opening night audiences using a letter grade (A+/A/etc i.e. the "CinemaScore"). This market will resolve N/A if either film does not receive a (publicly available) CinemaScore within 2 weeks of the latter release (this should be very unlikely). Please check out @howahlah 's closely related KFP4 CinemaScore market. Plot synopsis: Returning to her childhood home, a woman discovers that the imaginary friend she left behind is very real and unhappy she abandoned him.

N/A

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

p7mkh5bVDjQSVmSGyYNW

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

Base

Base

Will Manchester City win against Bayern in the Champions League Quarterfinals (alternative match)

will-manchester-city-win-against-ba

https://manifold.markets/Base/will-manchester-city-win-against-ba

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This is an alternative game for the Champions League quarter-final second leg The goals of the two teams from the original games are taken and then compared who the game would have won. (only Goals in the Regular Playtime count.) Example: Manchester City 3:1 Real Madrid Bayern 2:1 Arsenal Then the Result would be 3:2 for Manchester City and the Market would resolve to yes other alternative matches: Manchester City vs Arsenal: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-manchester-city-win-against-ar Dortmund vs Barcelona: https://manifold.markets/Base/will-dortmund-win-against-barcelona

N/A

dbvXEVfpL3ZdosjUsddWedWYeX22

pgQm3CrLbFaHgKjimSw1

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-20 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-b300e959caed

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-b300e959caed

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2023-12-20 08:45 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2023-12-20 - 10:45 (UTC)       02:45 (Los Angeles)       05:45 (New York)       11:45 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 08:15        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

xui1s8PDsm0jpc3R7lZ8

APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2

parhizj

JRP

Will the UAP committee hearing on Youtube get at least 50k views by 8 PM EST on July 26, 2023?

will-the-uap-committee-hearing-on-y

https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-the-uap-committee-hearing-on-y

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

There is a hearing on UAPs tomorrow (also called UFOs). It will be streamed on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY. I'm more interested with how many views it gets that day since I want to resolve it early that night. Closes at 8PM July 26. Resolution criteria: At 8 PM EST tomorrow, I will hit refresh on the web page at the URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY and use the number shown to me there to resolve the question as to the number of views at that time (I'll also screenshot it for posterity). If it shows '50k' or greater it will resolve YES, if it is less than '50k' it will resolve NO (49.9k will resolve NO). If the hearing is cancelled or not shown on youtube for whatever reason this question will resolve N/A. If I am unable to get the viewership count at 8PM I will use the 'observation' closest prior to 8 PM that I have taken (I'll try to keep track periodically). If the video gets 50k views before 8PM I'll resolve the question early. Rationale: I want to promote this hearing (that I am anticipating quite a bit) so I am trying to raise awareness. In the news: https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/ex-top-defense-official-expects-new-details-on-pentagons-retrieval-of-ufos/ [link preview]

N/A

lbVLTEH4xlbQ3kGguk9k

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-24 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a4d73a601054

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a4d73a601054

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2023-12-24 10:20 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2023-12-24 - 12:20 (UTC)       04:20 (Los Angeles)       07:20 (New York)       13:20 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 08:00        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

oOo2wUJAz9AEwdFj1QF0

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Jeremy Corbyn be banned from standing as a Labor candidate?

will-jeremy-corbyn-be-banned-from-s

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-jeremy-corbyn-be-banned-from-s

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[tweet]

N/A

SorOsnMkubKkFj6CHeau

FeFnCckzhESN0YZmdzDlCAK7Jz52

DanielKokotajlo

Daniel Kokotajlo

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiVjTFK7BPLbT8JWnBLD31jNJp6zVL33JphVQrdOA=s96-c

Have any US troops been killed in the recent attacks?

have-any-us-troops-been-killed-in-t

https://manifold.markets/DanielKokotajlo/have-any-us-troops-been-killed-in-t

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Since October 7th several dozen attacks have been made on US bases in Syria and Iraq. 8 more attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria as Iranian-backed militias ramp up their attacks | CNN Politics "While recent attacks haven’t appeared to result in any injuries to US forces, attacks before the US’ response on October 26 have resulted in more than 40 minor injuries so far, including 20 diagnoses of traumatic brain injury (TBI). The Pentagon said Monday that the number of US troops who have reported injury due to the increasingly frequent attacks have grown — more than 20 additional people have reported minor injuries, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Ryder said." I find it curious that there have been so many injuries (including TBI?) but no deaths. Perhaps there have been deaths but the US military is keeping quiet about them to avoid escalation? I turn to the wisdom of Manifold, and ask: Will it turn out that between October 7th and November 6th, at least one US soldier or military contractor (specifically, US citizens only, not local allies or foreign mercenaries) was killed in one of the many aforementioned attacks in Iraq and Syria? As soon as I become >95% confident that the answer is Yes, I'll resolve the question positively. I'll resolve the question as No on Jan 1 2024 otherwise. I encourage Yes purchasers to do some OSINT analysis and try to figure out what happened and put it in the comments. In case of a conflict between question title and resolution conditions, I'll rule in favor of the resolution conditions.

N/A

FeFnCckzhESN0YZmdzDlCAK7Jz52

sHLvzKtSvGye8KeYjwen

q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32

NamesAreHard

NamesAreHard

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Y7b2Qj-CHzI8sNluWCbWRdota_29t5Bhkyf2F=s96-c

Will West Ham win the 2022-2023 Europa Conference League?

will-west-ham-win-the-20222023-euro

https://manifold.markets/NamesAreHard/will-west-ham-win-the-20222023-euro

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The final will be played on June 7, 2023 between West Ham United and Fiorentina. https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaconferenceleague/

N/A

MczKzPKF1yY1ltNBNSwg

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will there be over $3000 worth of Mana sold in a single day in Oct 2023?

will-there-be-over-3000-mana-sold-i-436165fa9561

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-over-3000-mana-sold-i-436165fa9561

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats Resolves "YES" if over $3000 worth of Mana was sold in a single day in Oct 2023 Resolves "NO" otherwise Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting the statistics to the public [link preview]

N/A

A9P6UJJAb8GW8iPN8pNp

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

Ernie

Ernie

Australia will deport at least 10 people for supporting Hamas before 6/2024

australia-will-deport-at-least-10-p

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/australia-will-deport-at-least-10-p

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

There were scenes of people in Sydney chanting anti-semitic and pro-violence slogans. Will at least 10 people related to this movement such as Hamas members or sympathizers be deported from Australia or have their citizenship removed before 6/1/2024?

N/A

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

V8CZnexaCa6fVLp0kdWj

MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2

CodeandSolder

CodeandSolder

Will any case involving Donald Trump reach the Supreme Court before 2035?

will-any-case-involving-donald-trum

https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/will-any-case-involving-donald-trum

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

see also: @/CodeandSolder/will-any-case-involving-donald-trum-58a0983bd4d8

N/A

MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2

2ABFP940Ld1X852g62f6

2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2

Gabrielle

Gabrielle

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c

Will Donald Trump be indicted multiple times by the end of 2024?

will-donald-trump-be-indicted-multi

https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-multi

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Will Donald Trump be indicted more than once for any crimes in any jurisdiction by the end of 2024? There are indications that he may be indicted by a grand jury in Georgia, a grand jury in New York, federally, or in some other jurisdiction. Any of these could qualify.

N/A

jipnEymfh6j7FjhpVUvQ

q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2

aashiq

aashiq

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VZlz6mNajaBLii3A0z76YIPyr0zXxzVWxdAy8=s96-c

Will twitter.com redirect to x.com?

will-twittercom-redirect-to-xcom

https://manifold.markets/aashiq/will-twittercom-redirect-to-xcom

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

As of this writing, x.com redirects to twitter.com. In 2023, will this relationship flip, such that twitter.com redirects to x.com ? Resolves based on the redirection status as of the New Year. If twitter.com redirects nowhere (because of tech issues or bankruptcy or whatever), resolves NO. If twitter.com redirects to somewhere else besides x.com, resolves NO. If there are DNS issues such that the redirect is only happening in certain parts of the world, I will resolve YES if and only if it seems to me that most DNS servers in the USA are redirecting to x.com .

N/A

q2umyqspKRTNeFlcMQhjLt04A4n2

zmfEXJtdzYyl9rbNd900

DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2

KevinBlaw

Kevin Blawd

Will the fine in the Trump civil fraud trial exceed 249 million?

will-the-fine-in-the-trump-civil-fr

https://manifold.markets/KevinBlaw/will-the-fine-in-the-trump-civil-fr

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The number $250 million has been thrown around. It's up to the judge. Will it turn out to be lower than projected? Only the evidence and the judge will know. If Judge Engoron participates in this market it would be grounds for a mistrial and HUGE for Manifold.

N/A

DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2

XAr5MOXVthZhp9VZbHnb

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Vaush's video "The Craziest Pro-Russia Propaganda You'll Ever See" reach 150k views by 4/10 9 A.M. PST?

will-vaushs-video-the-craziest-pror

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-the-craziest-pror

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

(https://www.youtube.com/embed/T4DxgkZ33Kk)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market. I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low.

N/A

ZOedUwAXgBPZX9raN3fi

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Did Travis T. King Defect to North Korea?

did-travis-t-king-defect-to-north-k

https://manifold.markets/Haws/did-travis-t-king-defect-to-north-k

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market will close YES if a reputable publication confirms King defected to North Korea (AKA, I won't take any statement by North Korea without confirmation). This market will close NO if it is confirmed King is/was being detained and still holds allegience to the USA. TLDR: King was finishing a detention for various events (assaulting a guy at a club, destruction of public goods, etc.) King was about to board a plane to go back to the US to join up with his unit there. Instead of getting on the plane to go HOME, he said he forgot his passport, and ran away. He then crossed the border. Neither his mother nor the any authorities know King's motives. Publications: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-soldier-who-crossed-north-korea-what-happened-border-2023-07-19/ https://www.newsweek.com/who-travis-king-us-soldier-who-defected-north-korea-1813862 Related Market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-the-us-soldier-that-crossed-in?r=SGF3cw)

N/A

AqDGgwStOb6arqkxJ98m

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will XLM close higher on November 20 than it closed on November 19?

will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-2-9b9070e15cb8

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-2-9b9070e15cb8

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD Previous Close: $0.1210 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$ [link preview]

N/A

9fo7LWfH61HJ0xC56gV3

QOFhnX6L9wgT3m0zH9OfFRmWe7G3

edavis

edavis

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh8cSP_G6glDR2UKWcuJ73h0eJKnxifguOi-W-OpQ=s96-c

Will the 2022 March Madness champion be a #1 seed?

will-the-2022-march-madness-champio

https://manifold.markets/edavis/will-the-2022-march-madness-champio

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market resolves to YES if a #1 seeded team is the winner of the 2022 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament and NO if a team seeded #2 through #16 is the winner. Feb 19, 3:25pm: Related market: https://manifold.markets/sam/which-team-will-win-the-2022-mens-n

N/A

IfcQxza0e2ALeolBMNsY

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will XLM close higher on November 2 than it closed on November 1?

will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-2

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD Previous Close: $0.1225 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$ [link preview]

N/A

OAtIlvm0bynDwK2RNns0

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will Biden file for reelection before May 1?

will-biden-file-for-reelection-befo

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-biden-file-for-reelection-befo

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves YES if before May 1, Biden files with the FEC as a candidate for US President in 2024. Otherwise NO. Related: https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2740-will-president-joe-biden-register-with-the-fec-to-run-for-us-president-in-2024-before-1-may-2023 President Biden filed his original Statement of Candidacy for the 2020 presidential election on 25 April 2019 (FEC - Biden Filings, Politico).

N/A

CHgqSa2yfcf2KdX7ZZIl

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will Israel pass the judicial reform "reasonableness" bill in July?

will-israel-pass-the-judicial-refor-8c16e795af91

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-israel-pass-the-judicial-refor-8c16e795af91

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871 Resolves YES if the Knesset passes a bill in July 2023 that would remove the Supreme Court's power to cancel government decisions it deems unreasonable, otherwise NO. MPs expected to vote on Monday on the first planned change - a so-called "reasonableness bill" - which would remove the Supreme Court's power to cancel government decisions it deems unreasonable. [link preview]

N/A

A2RwCV0r5HNyDDGV4J3W

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Microsoft close higher than 420.58 on February 16?

will-microsoft-close-higher-than-42

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-microsoft-close-higher-than-42

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Microsoft Corp Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data MSFT closes at 4pm EST This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 16 Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price. Resolves NO if stock closes lower. Resolves 50% if stock closes flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

YrxtG8ETamL4ltF7jl7N

rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2

MattCWilson

Matt C. Wilson

13. There will be fewer flight cancellations than 2022.

13-there-will-be-fewer-flight-cance

https://manifold.markets/MattCWilson/13-there-will-be-fewer-flight-cance

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre ----- Of the 5.27 million flights through September 30, 2022 (when the most recent official data is available), 147,533 were canceled, a rate of 2.8%. Both the rate and overall number will decrease during the first 9 months of 2023. (70% confidence) ----- This is question #13 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going). Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.

N/A

rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2

exgqFhONKrdLia4O9Lpm

mZgHE6bTcMT09OEGb1aEq1taxNh1

MaggieDelano

Maggie Delano

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbasGusUy3-gTUQ4zZiZDsoIeXuPlw6eIntjv_CGg=s96-c

Will the Supreme Court make a ruling about affirmative action on or before June 22nd, 2023?

will-the-supreme-court-make-a-rulin

https://manifold.markets/MaggieDelano/will-the-supreme-court-make-a-rulin

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

The US Supreme Court is overwhelmingly expected to make a ruling against affirmative action in college admissions (see markets below). This market is about the timing of the ruling. The Supreme Court is expected to issue a ruling sometime in May or June. Typically, the more controversial the case, the later the ruling is issued. You can review all the cases under consideration this cycle here. This market will be resolved YES if the Supreme Court issues a ruling in Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina and Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College (21-707 and 20-1199) by June 22nd, 11:59pm Eastern. Otherwise, it will resolve NO. [markets]

N/A

Bkl3FKOEbTfZBcgePdhN

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

Joshua

Joshua

Will Manifold be mentioned in the New York Times before Oct 10th?

will-manifold-be-mentioned-in-the-n-77e19878b8bd

https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-manifold-be-mentioned-in-the-n-77e19878b8bd

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Must be in an article, not a podcast, not a transcript of a podcast, the word "Manifold" must appear in the main text of the article (i.e. not in a tooltip or the url of a link that has different text, not as a footnote), and must be referring to Manifold the prediction market website, as we know it, not some other use of the word. Relevant timezone for "Before Oct 10th" is Pacific time.

N/A

gDRiBoIWGLg9zPC2LDH6

jKhOetq1dxWTp2B71fJrf5UMxS62

Berg

Berg

Will the next SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch be fully successful?

will-the-next-spacex-falcon-heavy-l

https://manifold.markets/Berg/will-the-next-spacex-falcon-heavy-l

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

It will be resolved after the today's launch of the Falcon Heavy rocket Resolved 'Yes' if the Launch Status category of the next Falcon Heavy launch will get determined as a Success on the webpage https://everydayastronaut.com/previous-launches/ Otherwise, it will get resolved "no". The launch going to be today https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/falcon-heavy-viasat-3-americas/ The launch might be postponed, in which case I will extend the market. Failed booster landings do not count. Launch abort does not count. Also, consider betting on this as well: (https://manifold.markets/embed/27bd/will-spacex-manage-to-stick-all-the)

N/A

vUgbXh5pkuUnvs1i2mJx

f1fhIHjyQHbZ5a2O6RcENxRPPu22

BenEllis

Ben Ellis

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcRnlNXhr3hebOxecCFiGXmRl1lkHJ0n8Qn2RBh1g=s96-c

Will Alexander Lukashenko survive 2023?

will-alexander-lukashenko-survive-2

https://manifold.markets/BenEllis/will-alexander-lukashenko-survive-2

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Minutes after meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko was hospitalized. This closely follows the Russian announcement on May 25th that they would be stationing nuclear weapons inside Belarusian borders.

N/A

fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42

EMJ3iWn9yV0X3sK4xFaq

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will the TSX close higher on October 20 than it did on October 19?

will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe-39e049fe8e4f

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe-39e049fe8e4f

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

JVEgvJe3GduCkFcQ4zew

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 05, 2024 be higher than the previous day?

will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-f31d72cb71a8

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-f31d72cb71a8

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 05, 2024 is higher than the previous day Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

o9qzIkAZrmAR6CcWtaps

zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2

TenShino

Punished Ten Shino

Will the People's Party get more than 130 seats in the Spanish general election (2023)?

will-the-peoples-party-get-more-tha-d508e29e8f00

https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-the-peoples-party-get-more-tha-d508e29e8f00

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PP (People's Party) got 89 seats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election

N/A

oXkoV0Qk7Htr4xtUz6IG

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will LX flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-09-05 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-d5105ae82fb2

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-d5105ae82fb2

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/nrc48483

N/A

3t1QqJwafjmuW43ZuhCM

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

itsTomekK

Tomek ⚡ K

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

March 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?

march-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-30000

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/march-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-30000

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

If in March 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES [image]--- ➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎

N/A

R9DpLjbvlW78ifEmngMK

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Rheinmetall close higher november 27th than the close of november 24th? (Daily Market)

will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-84938368a5a7

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-84938368a5a7

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

yEClC5PuvQHcRDSSKRen

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Rheinmetall close higher november 14th than the close of november 13th? (Daily Market)

will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-60c6b12e2ce2

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-60c6b12e2ce2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

Wgg7VPqxYyh1pxCmZi9y

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will the New Jersey Devils beat Montreal Canadiens on Jan 17?

will-the-new-jersey-devils-beat-mon

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-new-jersey-devils-beat-mon

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

New Jersey Devils vs Montreal Canadiens @6pm CST Overtime Market | Shootout Market Game start at 6:00pm CST. Resolves YES or NO . Resolves Yes if New Jersey Devils win. Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death. [image]

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

QyrebKDf4LVBdsFFnBg7

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will BNB close higher on November 16 than it closed on November 15?

will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-1-4cfcac503dd6

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-1-4cfcac503dd6

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD Previous Close: $253.8038 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$ [link preview]

N/A

iVhDjigtrhWWIS3sDjb9

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Facebook/Meta OPEN higher than 484.03 on February 26?

will-facebookmeta-open-higher-than-e02bb39a15d0

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-facebookmeta-open-higher-than-e02bb39a15d0

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Meta Platforms Inc Resolves according to Google Open Price META opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 484.03 Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

pzIUC54ZFlZOUjVlMJSq

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 09, 2024 be higher than the previous day?

will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-ae5403ea4e2a

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-ae5403ea4e2a

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 09, 2024 is higher than the previous day Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

ZoqRAPmJhyTzboPVZ6Gd

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

PatrickDelaney

Patrick Delaney

Will my Mathematics eBook, "Probability for Lemurs" have a total of more than 1000 readers by Tau Day, June 28th, 2022?

will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili-71a34a770ba5

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili-71a34a770ba5

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

After this previous market, which blew past the goal: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-my-mathematics-ebook-probabili I honestly did not expect that goal to be reached, so I thought it would be good to put together what seems like an even less realistic goal - 1000 readers. Here's the free code: https://leanpub.com/probabilityforlemurs/c/6OMiYNaqgAj6_manifold * I'm a first time author, to quote another person on Manifold, I'm basically just some jabroni. * Like many on Manifold, I have an interest in predictions, which means Probability Theory can play a role. However I often find it difficult to deeply grok probabilistic concepts and end up making emotional decisions the vast majority of the time. "Probability for Lemurs," is my effort to explain Probability Theory from primitives with the hope of helping people internalize concepts better and make better decisions. * I'm promoting it on Twitter, Linkedin, my social networks, etc. * Vote NO to subsidize the market. What's different this time, is that I actually have to go back and spend more time editing, improving and writing the book between now and Tau Day, because I have set that as a deadline for a new version to come out as well, so I won't have as much time to focus on promotion as I did during the last market, which lasted a couple weeks - however we have a longer timeframe now, so who knows?

N/A

By9Y43AzhKzky82TNU8T

J2iXpU3klTVDNGfqqDJDCelekVW2

Canoezzz

Canoezzz

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxY95OtTtMBGJx_8qZgKfXjyqKJEuzeyWGZISpbWLA=s96-c

Will Scream 6 have an average review of over 80% on Rottentomatoes.com? (Until June 9th)

will-scream-6-have-an-average-revie

https://manifold.markets/Canoezzz/will-scream-6-have-an-average-revie

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Scream 6 is an upcoming movie featuring many celebrities and is within a highly popular franchise. Will it achieve high ratings or bomb the box office?

N/A

ye6g4MY2zKfYzkB85uJc

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

PatrickDelaney

Patrick Delaney

In Retrospect, Did the Internet of Things as an Investment Sector Actually Make Money?

in-retrospect-did-the-internet-of-t

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/in-retrospect-did-the-internet-of-t

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Did the Internet of Things as an investment sector, actually make money for its investors over a decade, as a whole, from the timeframe it started to get popular, around mid-2013, to the end of mid-2023? This market will be resolved by the perponderance of evidence in the comments.

N/A

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

WxsT0nUrvFCVVrtQEQB9

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Will the Guardian publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors by the end of August?

will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl-5919438f6397

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl-5919438f6397

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Since there was so much excitement around LK-99 on Manifold and in a lot of other online spaces, I was surprised to see the lack of mainstream media coverage of the alleged discovery and the attempts at replication. I created these three markets on whether there would be coverage from the Economist, the BBC and the Guardian within a week. After all trading at around 90%, the Economist published an article and the other two look like they're going to resolve to NO: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic @/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a @/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl Will the Guardian publish an article on their website about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor by the end of the month? Resolution criterea: I will count any article which has been published on guardian.co.uk by 22:00 BST on Thursday 31st August Anything that's published in the print editions of the Guardian or the Observer will count if it is also published at any URL starting with guardian.co.uk (this covers almost all content published in the print editions - but it is the published date on the website which counts for this market) The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not. Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.

N/A

6RUyR2oSxpalHqS3XY4l

KUj2sUHmbRUD4ZJCCOmK9HDBBuz2

robotfactory

Julie

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKPO9X4Jcghduv3JwhpzVieUcoc2DWG3OLxx4ixxj45KdTz=s96-c

Will a US government agency publicly disclose being impacted by a ransomware incident in January 2024?

will-a-us-government-agency-publicl

https://manifold.markets/robotfactory/will-a-us-government-agency-publicl

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO