Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

zAPXWA27nZqbxKM7RIH6

FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1

Ophelia

Ophelia

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c

Will Twitter unmask/punish past poll respondents?

will-twitter-unmaskpunish-past-poll

https://manifold.markets/Ophelia/will-twitter-unmaskpunish-past-poll

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Elon just replied "interesting" to this: https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/1604813005833015296 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1604981780548767744 Resolves YES if I see evidence of Twitter using currently-private poll responses in any way besides tallying them, including but not limited to: Banning all accounts that voted a certain way Adding the votes as a feature for their bot detection algorithm (the votes themselves, not the fact that an account voted) Rewarding accounts for voting a certain way. Resolves YES if votes are deanonymized, including but not limited to: Someone publishing a list of votes for a poll, or singling out some account and making public how they voted Evidence that Musk or any other Twitter employee intentionally looked at a "who voted how" database, even if they don't reveal what they saw Otherwise, resolves N/A if Someone does some analysis on the votes dataset without deanonymizing any account. Otherwise, resolves NO. This is only about votes oh polls that have been created by time this question is posted. (See also https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign )

N/A

nW3jGxBPhd0Q1HONpALZ

zXGWaRgDhrhLzR7LCN8L6AL03Jp2

agentydragon

Rai

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giym7DsIh1sZKz6ZmJZnHZNTcgcSSwz8eKMlBqRKTo=s96-c

Will any of my stuff get damaged or lost during transport?

will-any-of-my-stuff-get-damaged-or

https://manifold.markets/agentydragon/will-any-of-my-stuff-get-damaged-or

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

I'm getting ~8 boxes of my remaining possessions shipped by Swiss Post to USA. It's those stackable Rako boxes: https://eurobox-logistics.com/products/reusable-packaging/plastic-boxes/stackable-boxes/rako-eurocontainers/ They're covered by default Swiss Post insurance for up to CHF 500 per box. They are locked with the default lock but otherwise I haven't put any sort of extra packing on them. To me, the lock feels hard to open without actually intending to, so I'm hoping my stuff won't fall out from the top during transit. The handles still are small holes and there's a possibility some might fall out that way. This market resolves to YES if I notice any damaged or missing items in any of my stuff. For example, something gets stolen, a box is cracked, one of the boxes gets stolen off my porch when it arrives, something gets lost in transit by the post, etc. Jun 15, 9:20am: Update - it has to be a thing I care about. If e.g. I see that a random pencil sharpener is on the packing list but is missing now, I don't care about it and it's a NO. If my university diploma or some item I'm attached to or my singing bowl or some of my physical furry art goes missing, that's a YES. Regarding fragile things, the most fragile stuff is ~40 pieces of furry art of various sizes, from medium-size painting to 5x5 cm small thingies. I've packed some of it relatively tightly with other items and there's some chance I could get unlucky and e.g. a canvas might get torn (:'( if that happens).

N/A

F33Xm2DByrAOyJaFjmhk

XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2

RJPerez

RJ Perez

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c

Will the Chicago Bears beat the Las Vegas Raiders in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?

will-the-chicago-bears-beat-the-las

https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-chicago-bears-beat-the-las

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Yes - Bears win No - Raiders win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled

N/A

Cc6bQTBOtcb4l9tIH1DM

FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2

tofu

tofu

Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023?

will-elon-musk-be-federally-indicte

https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-elon-musk-be-federally-indicte

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to YES if Musk is officially indicted. Resolves to NO if only an investigation is launched against him but no indiction, or if nothing happens. Dec 17, 10:45am: Will Elon Musk be federally indicted by any reasons before the end of 2023? → Will Elon Musk be indicted for any crimes before the end of 2023?

N/A

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

yM3aZSLQp7k4ndOx5Nxt

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

BTE

Brian T. Edwards

Will Xi Jinping mention China's achievements advancing "democracy and the rule of law" during his keynote speech to the 20th Party Congress?

will-xi-jinping-mention-chinas-achi

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-xi-jinping-mention-chinas-achi

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[image]In his 2017 National Congress keynote speech Xi noted near the beginning of his remarks the following: We have taken major steps in developing democracy and the rule of law. We have actively developed socialist democracy and advanced law-based governance. We have stepped up institution building across the board to make integrated advances in Party leadership, the running of the country by the people, and law-based governance; and we have continuously improved the institutions and mechanisms by which the Party exercises leadership. Steady progress has been made in enhancing socialist democracy; intra party democracy has been expanded, and socialist consultative democracy is flourishing. The patriotic united front has been consolidated and developed, and new approaches have been adopted for work related to ethnic and religious affairs. Further progress has been made in ensuring our legislation is sound, law enforcement is strict, the administration of justice is impartial, and the law is observed by everyone. Our efforts to build a country, government, and society based on the rule of law have been mutually reinforcing; the system of distinctively Chinese socialist rule of law has been steadily improved; and public awareness of the rule of law has risen markedly. Good progress has been made in piloting the reform of the national supervision system, and effective measures have been taken to reform the system of government administration and the judicial system, and to develop systems to apply checks and oversight over the exercise of power. This market resolves YES if Xi makes the same or substantially the same claim in his speech this month at the 20th Party Congress. Oct 9, 11:19pm: Oct 11, 2:33pm: Will Xi Jinping mention China's achievements advancing "democracy and the rule of law" during his keynote speech to the 20th People's Congress? → Will Xi Jinping mention China's achievements advancing "democracy and the rule of law" during his keynote speech to the 20th Party Congress?

N/A

xfEswngMyFb2NTkYvUPg

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher September 8th Than The Close Of September 7th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]

will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-s-ffeac7c78384

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-s-ffeac7c78384

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC. Predictions close 1 hours prior. [image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC BONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market. SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

Bgo3Udjep0Mnjqnmq3SQ

O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72

AjayChabra

Ajay

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c

NFL Week 12 (MNF) 11/27/23 - Will CHI Bears QB Justin Fields pass for more yards than MIN Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs?

nfl-week-12-mnf-112723-will-chi-bea

https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-12-mnf-112723-will-chi-bea

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Week 12 - (MNF) - 11/27/23 - CHI Bears @ MIN Vikings. Will CHI Bears QB Justin Fields pass for more yards than MIN Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs? 2023 average pass yards/game: Fields: 196 Dobbs: 202 notes: If either player doesn't play, this market will N/A. If they are tied in pass yards it will pay out at 50%.

N/A

K0S6KeFA2wJEtMxzK6MO

0ftSrtKfyMM1lGGf12np4Gpg1Z93

Wh1tey

Wh1tey

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp55LLeCatZrfnHiXZCjXUuUsm_e3TIKc2CY-oIZ-w=s96-c

Will Gaimin Gladiators beat Team Aster in the Upper Bracket Quarterfinals of the Dota 2 Lima Major?

will-gaimin-gladiators-beat-team-as

https://manifold.markets/Wh1tey/will-gaimin-gladiators-beat-team-as

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Game time - February 28, 2023 - 10:00 EST https://liquipedia.net/dota2/Lima_Major/2023

N/A

6ZfYafWfvF42Ik1kV6E1

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jskf

jskf

By the end of 2023, will the `/market/*/positions` Manifold API endpoint be re-enabled?

by-the-end-of-2023-will-the-marketp

https://manifold.markets/jskf/by-the-end-of-2023-will-the-marketp

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[image]https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0marketmarketidpositions

N/A

GEhUoKk61LJD8bXn5i8N

HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3

JulianLees

Julian Lees

Rugby World Cup 2023 quaterfinal winners will have more kicks from hand and kicking metres than the losers

rugby-world-cup-2023-quaterfinal-wi

https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/rugby-world-cup-2023-quaterfinal-wi

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves YES if the SUM of all quarterfinal winners: Number of kicks from hand, AND, Kicking metres is greater than the SUM of all quaterfinal losers. Otherwise resolves NO Note: the sum will be done separately for each component (i.e. kicks from hand separate from kicking metres) and then each component must be greater for the winners. (i.e. the winners need to add up to have BOTH more kicks from hand AND more metres from kicks than the losers) Strategic choices, "style of play" and philosophies on the game of Rugby are a constant talking point. It will be interesting to see the facets that win out as the knockout phase of Rugby World Cup 2023 commences. We've already seen in two of the biggest matchups of the tournament so far: France's win over New Zealand (44 kicks vs 39 kicks AND 1747m vs 1312m), and Ireland's win over South Africa (20 kicks vs 16 kicks AND 607m vs 527m) ....that this was the case. Will the teams that choose to kick more AND kick more effectively for distance continue to prosper... We shall see in the upcoming games. The resolution will be according to the match centre stats for each quarterfinal on the Rugby World Cup website. Example stats from France vs New Zealand (Match 1): https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/match/pool-a-france-new-zealand#stats

N/A

X4aRuckExkYrRdXGMwbC

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher november 27th than the close of november 24th? (Daily Market)

will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-7d0985a34483

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-7d0985a34483

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

vrIgRLDnoRk67AIxsVVc

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election (Boris Johnson's seat) - will the Labour Party candidate win the seat?

uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-e0fd34520cae

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-e0fd34520cae

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP meaning that there will be a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip on 20th July: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-election Will the Labour Party candidate win the seat? @/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti @/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-e0fd34520cae @/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-0848532ff70c @/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-8f5193426300 This is one of three by-elections taking place on the same day. How may of them will the Tories hold on to? @/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-how-many-seat If there is no Labour Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO. If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A

N/A

U2vTFU8Tj8ANK2jtu86s

wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2

RobertCousineau

Robert Cousineau

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYlGNKsuOwB8yJXovmzzrMo-fe2CWfQnYKZEZbz_w=s96-c

Will the spread of African Swine Fever cause significant harm to the farming of pigs in China, in 2023?

will-the-spread-of-african-swine-fl

https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/will-the-spread-of-african-swine-fl

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Currently, there is a reported outbreak of African Swine Fever going through China [1]. No large number (proportional to the Chinese pig population) of pigs have been reported as culled so far as I can tell. The last time (four years ago) China had an outbreak of African Swine Fever, there was a roughly 41% drop in the Chinese pig population [2]. Per this paper the outbreak led to a drop in Chinese GDP of 0.78 [3]. This market will resolve yes if a major news outlet reports the current (2023) outbreak is atleast half as bad as the last. Some examples of this are: If it causes a >20% decline in the Chinese pig population. If there is a >0.39% reduction in the counterfactual GDP of China was observed. If the price of pork reaches 31.7 JAN2023 yuan / kg in 2023 (there was a 34 yuan increase in the price of pork in 2019; half of that is 17, the JAN2023 price of pork is 14.7 yuan, 14.7+17=31.7). Thanks to @Duncn for doing the research here! All reports would need to be from a source I deem reputable (major news outlet, nature published research paper, etc). If there are no reports, this will resolve as No. [1] https://zeihan.com/famine-the-ultimate-country-killer/ [2] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-output-pork/chinas-2019-pork-output-plunges-to-16-year-low-as-disease-culls-herd-idUSKBN1ZG08H [3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00362-1 Note: This market closes 01MARCH2024 - if there are no reports (about african swine fever in 2023) meeting the above criteria for yes by then I will close the market as No.

N/A

wGlJ4J2CRDUb6O7hzpdqBfTKJXk2

RYp0j6UWvPVUCn9DB0kt

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-01 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-5787f05494ac

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-5787f05494ac

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-01 07:00 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-01 - 09:00 (UTC)       01:00 (Los Angeles)       04:00 (New York)       10:00 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 01:30        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

ScTlUnY6H8Me2QEycFe4

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Allianz SE close higher november 22th than the close of november 21th? (Daily Market)

will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-cd82a4882cf6

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-cd82a4882cf6

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

Bxb0ouTc896NbF0D5G9W

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) From 2pm-4pm Move Higher On November 17th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] {DAILY}

will-the-sp-500-indexsp-inx-from-2p-ef6981594cb3

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-sp-500-indexsp-inx-from-2p-ef6981594cb3

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

S&P 500 closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) Predictions close at 330pm ET (830pm UTC) Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day. "Resolves No If Closes Flat Compared To 2pm Price." If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Example: Higher (YES) [image]Lower (NO) [image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded) I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

EZoJi90p9Rvbi1weEzVr

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

MatthewBarnett

Matthew Barnett

Will there be a major escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before 2024?

will-there-be-a-major-escalation-in

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-major-escalation-in

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as of 2023 has seen heightened hostilities with substantial casualties and international ramifications. The potential for further escalation remains a serious concern, with implications for regional stability and international relations. Will there be a significant escalation in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war before January 1st, 2024? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if any of the following conditions are met before January 1st, 2024: Death Toll Escalation: Definition: The cumulative, combined death toll on all sides of this conflict reaches or exceeds 100,000 individuals, only counting deaths after October 6th 2023. Verification: Verification will be obtained from cumulative figures reported by the United Nations, or the agreement of at least two independent, reputable, international news organizations. Major Outside Military Intervention: Definition: A recognized state or significant non-state military actor other than Israel or any Palestinian authority intervenes militarily in Israel, the West Bank, or the Gaza Strip. This must include one or more of the following: the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops, at least 50 air strikes, or any other military intervention that directly causes the deaths of over 250 people cumulative. Verification: Verification will be based on official government statements, reputable international news outlets, or documentation from international governmental organizations such as the United Nations. Notes: These conditions will exclude humanitarian interventions or non-military involvement by new actors. Military actions that are solely defensive in nature and do not significantly alter the balance of power or the scale of the conflict are excluded. Economic sanctions, diplomatic actions, or other non-military interventions are also excluded.

N/A

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

fUVO6EoObs9d3gZlTKou

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AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary?

will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-332768b44cd4

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-332768b44cd4

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves N/A if the 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary was cancaled

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

32QEP73SSXMxRgi4DKJ8

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 17 than it closed on December 16?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-01352f06438a

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-01352f06438a

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $7.09 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

6B6Y7ZVjn6Z72C5REbcv

AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1

B

Ben J. Smith

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c

Will more US adults consume alcohol in 2022 than in 2021, in an average month?

will-more-us-adults-consume-more-al

https://manifold.markets/B/will-more-us-adults-consume-more-al

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The National Survey on Drug Use and Health surveys the proportion of people who have consumed at least one alcoholic drink in the last 30 days. Alcohol consumption rates over past month for some recent years are as follows: 2018: 56.3% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables) 2019: 55.9% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2019-nsduh-detailed-tables) 2020: 55.3% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2020-nsduh-detailed-tables Table 2.8B) 2021: 52.8% (https://www.samhsa.gov/data/report/2021-nsduh-detailed-tables) Will the NSDUH figure for 2022, when released, be at or above the figure for 2021? The market resolves YES if the NSDUH proportion of people who have consumed at least one alcoholic drink in the last 30 days for 2022 is at least 52.8%, and resolves NO otherwise. I'll endeavor to close the market after the figure has been posted on the NSDUH website. Jan 27, 11:44pm: Will more US adults consume more alcohol in 2022 than in 2021, in an average month? → Will more US adults consume alcohol in 2022 than in 2021, in an average month?

N/A

wZm6Vme4P9ZQ2QiiPj7d

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Vaush's video "Blaire White | The Ultimate Pick-Me" reach 120k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?

will-vaushs-video-blaire-white-the

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-blaire-white-the

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtu.be/yrFh2l1x40g If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

zBIZsGdrjndBv5SXNtZY

cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2

admissions

lukres

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2

Will there be a new Current Thing by the end of 2024?

will-there-be-a-new-current-thing-b

https://manifold.markets/admissions/will-there-be-a-new-current-thing-b

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

BLM, Masks, Vaccines, Ukraine (so the current thing is not necessarily bad) - will the next one drop by the end of next year? The resolution will have to be somewhat arbitrary. Here are the criteria I will consider: It must be intrusively advocated such that an ordinary person cannot avoid it without extraordinary effort, It must be known well enough that your grandmother has heard about it, It must have a substantial duration, in no event less than 1 month, It must have multiple news cycles within it, It must be of wide international interest; I will check for spikes in Google Trends in at least three distinct countries, It should be a polarizing issue, It should be something that people put on their Facebook profile photos, It should be placed in the bar on top of react.dev The last two criteria are together sufficient, but not necessary. I believe "je suis charlie" would be the borderline case that would resolve this as "yes". Anything less is a "no". (Edit 2023-10-15) A question arose whether the situation is Israel might have created a new Current Thing. While it seemed so during the first couple of days when the "I stand with Israel" message dominated, it has faded within a week among reports of Palestinian casualties. It looks now that there won't be a distinct "intrusively advocated" current thing after a month, and the Israel situation won't resolve this market. Which made me realize a salient feature of all the past current things: The current thing is always one-sided and the opposition marginalized Note this is a corollary/clarification of the existing rules rather than a new rule. [image]

N/A

cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2

3Hw6RlW6aRqPnPOhMKXw

4w7ZYpvZ3OfE0A8fuWttBVZWvRR2

1941159478

Johnny Ten-Numbers

Will Our World in Data show 100,000 daily Covid Cases in China by March?

will-our-world-in-data-show-100000

https://manifold.markets/1941159478/will-our-world-in-data-show-100000

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This will resolve YES if the Our World in Data COVID-19 Data Explorer shows a 7-day rolling average of at least 100,000 confirmed cases any day before March 1, 2023. Otherwise this will resolve NO. We are talking about this chart: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2022-10-26..latest&facet=none&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~CHN This will not resolve YES based on any other evidence that there are at least 100,000 cases per day, just the chart above. Should that source be unavailable, this will resolve N/A. But it really has to be utterly unavailable, like a sustained 404 response or something. Inspired by this market with somewhat unclear rules: (https://manifold.markets/embed/AndyMartin/will-china-reach-100000-daily-covid)If there are any remaining uncertainties about the resolution criteria, please ask. I will try to clear them up as quickly and unambiguously as I can.

N/A

EGrICZTDlXyq994LUD9C

QP8oaQ0uutUV5eCLA9nIojXWvYS2

CE

Charity Entrepreneurship

MEDIA9: Promoting brushing teeth with fluoride toothpaste

9-promoting-brushing-teeth-with-flu

https://manifold.markets/CE/9-promoting-brushing-teeth-with-flu

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Promoting brushing teeth with fluoride toothpaste" as a top Mass Media intervention? Idea overview Oral health has been largely neglected by global health interventions in recent decades, yet there is growing evidence linking poor oral health with high levels of pain and suffering, as well as poor health outcomes such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Yet there is a simple and highly effective way of preventing oral diseases: daily tooth brushing with fluoride toothpaste. This organization would use mass-media communications to encourage the audience to consistently adopt behaviors that promote oral health, including more frequent tooth brushing, and using toothpaste with sufficient fluoride content. Mass media interventions By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise. About the contest In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose. You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision. For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.

N/A

q5g9CTDHJXYUa7ds04sj

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

strutheo

chris (strutheo)

Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 30 days of being attacked by them?

will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad @/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73 Using similar criteria as Metaculus Resolution Criteria This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes: Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel." Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.

N/A

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

Qm6Gq9W64nyrNBOwYnZm

xXSZIwPDSKXOb6dnUJSEUgzku7h1

Frankt

Frankt

Will the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th be above $30000?

will-the-manifold-daily-revenue-on-a092442697cf

https://manifold.markets/Frankt/will-the-manifold-daily-revenue-on-a092442697cf

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolution base on the displayed stats here: https://manifold.markets/stats Resolve to Yes if the Manifold Daily Revenue on Apr 24th is above $30000

N/A

q1K4XIaUMAaY0ZiuPo3q

OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2

CDBiddulph

Caleb Biddulph

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c

Will an episode of the Rationally Writing podcast be released by the end of 2024?

will-an-episode-of-the-rationally-w

https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-an-episode-of-the-rationally-w

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This question resolves YES if an episode of Rationally Writing (https://daystareld.com/podcasts/rationally-writing/) is released by December 31, 2024. "Rationally Writing is a podcast about the genre of rational fiction and what goes into writing it, hosted by [Daystar Eld] and fellow serial author Alexander Wales." The most recent episode was released on January 22, 2023 (https://daystareld.com/podcast/rationally-writing-61/).

N/A

K2GDb4RTu0iNNWnq4Rwf

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will Michelle Khare beat Andrea Botez at Creator Clash 2?

will-michelle-khare-beat-andrea-bot

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-michelle-khare-beat-andrea-bot

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Michelle Khare is fighting Andrea Botez at Creator Clash 2 on 15th April, 2023 in Tampa, Florida. If Michelle Khare wins, this market will resolve to YES. If the fight is a draw or Andrea Botez wins, this market will resolve to NO.

N/A

gorbj7qlJhm31DuPO8KW

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

PatrickDelaney

Patrick Delaney

Will Manifold's New Automatic Loan on First $M 20 Create Inflation in $M?

will-manifolds-new-automatic-loan-o

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-manifolds-new-automatic-loan-o

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

I am not really sure how to resolve this bet and am open to suggestions to help clarify. If there were some kind of API which reported the total volume of $M, and $M per users, vs. the $M actually purchased by users with real-world money, something like that, it would be more straightforward, but I'm not sure if that exists yet, or would ever. This might be something we might have to eye by just paying attention to the activity on the leaderboards and comparing it to the previous month. It seems reasonable to me that if Manifold the platform is now creating new currency with every single bet, individuals are going to automatically want to use more of that currency to get more visibility on their own personal bets, pools and projects, but this is just a hypothesis. Mar 2, 11:38am: Sounds like we have claims that volumes are escalating, it would be more interesting to figure out by how much and resolve to a PROB in my opinion. This same market type could be created again in the future to compare how different features added change inflation over time. Or if the amount loaned out changes, how does the, "Fed Rate" from Manifold change market volume participation? Mar 2, 9:34pm: I didn't realize Manifold provided this previously, this may be useful: https://manifold.markets/analytics Mar 3, 7:20am: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5

N/A

QJ3DKC4MaXxONfEhxXNG

vTOSzjNwCYcfWPIyTciqT6Q0RG73

ShadowyZephyr

shadowyzephyr

Will "Will a device from Neuralink receive FDA approval in 2023 for implantation in a human?" resolve N/A?

will-will-a-device-from-neuralink-r

https://manifold.markets/ShadowyZephyr/will-will-a-device-from-neuralink-r

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Referencing this market: https://manifold.markets/JanLukasR/will-a-device-from-neuralink-receiv Resolution criteria are self-explanatory. If the market is somehow deleted without being resolved, this resolves N/A. [link preview]

N/A

Ic93b1P6NUAZ0ea7qmG3

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-20 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-01bbed92c2a6

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-01bbed92c2a6

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-20 07:00 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-20 - 09:00 (UTC)       01:00 (Los Angeles)       04:00 (New York)       10:00 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 01:30        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

T69WxcCqZfYvZ8VWmkSz

BZpfiWcf7yPdqrsAAgMhEyndyGa2

vjustus

Victor

Will Nikki Haley call Vivek Ramaswamy a derogatory term at the 4th Republican Primary Debate?

will-nikki-haley-call-vivek-ramaswa-1a3e4e3edc50

https://manifold.markets/vjustus/will-nikki-haley-call-vivek-ramaswa-1a3e4e3edc50

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

N/A

sqvubBP1KQPHBkKggr7p

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Florida Atlantic beat Rice?

-2023-ncaaf-will-florida-atlantic-b-8eb10b2eeef8

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-florida-atlantic-b-8eb10b2eeef8

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

2023-11-25 at 1 PM ET in Houston, TX. Head-to-head: Overall: Florida Atlantic 2, Rice 2, Tie 0

N/A

zMEv1ho9UoVNbVcg42j9

5lEaBMuR06eTxzcSj1eYRg45tlu2

BarretWallace

Barret Wallace

Will Qorantos Grow As a Streamer this year?

will-qorantos-grow-as-a-streamer-th

https://manifold.markets/BarretWallace/will-qorantos-grow-as-a-streamer-th

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will Qorantos Grow As a Streamer? Average over 500 viewers for any month this year? FAQ I'm going to use this website: https://streamscharts.com/channels/qorantos?platform=kick and once this section reads 500 (even once) I will consider this a resolved 'yes'. The section on that website reads; "How many viewers does qorantos average on Kick? qorantos streamed for an average of x viewers on Kick in the last 30 days." I pulled the 500 number from I believe Destiny saying he believes Q will hit 500 concurrents this year. I might be mistaken with that, but it seems like a good parameter for a year of of leeching. :)

N/A

5lEaBMuR06eTxzcSj1eYRg45tlu2

KiSqcGq8x12cKiokVGQs

LP7cXaQwISM2JgopIQ6gCTSJgku2

LoganZoellner

Logan Zoellner

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2EjHgiN3-4CwC17J8a4nbk1MzVXiwg0o_GxnHnKg=s96-c

Will any Chatbot beat GPT-4 by July 1, 2024?

will-any-chatbot-beat-gpt4-by-july

https://manifold.markets/LoganZoellner/will-any-chatbot-beat-gpt4-by-july

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard (https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena) lists GPT-4 in the number 1 spot with an ELO of 1225. In the number 2 spot is Claude with an ELO 1195 Will any chatbot replace GPT-4 in the number one spot before July 1, 2024? Fine print: If https://chat.lmsys.org/?arena ceases to function, the question may resolve on the basis of a similar site that gives ELOs for chatbots based off of real human blind side-by-side judgements. --update-- Important update: there are now multiple "GPT-4" models on the leaderboard. In order for this question to resolve positive, the top-scoring model must have a different name (e.g. Claude) or number (e.g. 4.5). Significantly, GPT-4-turbo scoring higher than GPT-4-1106-preview will not cause this question to resolve positive.

N/A

LP7cXaQwISM2JgopIQ6gCTSJgku2

zzwCNDmSdj9ApI5g2CKQ

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

[Daily] Will GOOG close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19?

daily-will-goog-close-higher-on-dec-1275f8d1bbbc

https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-goog-close-higher-on-dec-1275f8d1bbbc

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

giAg2BvmtDqOMJr1X3C8

r3elkRN6rjOC5S5v8mWzyxxGpHq1

Dave_9000ish

Dave_9000ish

Will the EFF get 10% of the votes in the 2024 general election in South Africa?

will-the-eff-get-10-of-the-votes-in

https://manifold.markets/Dave_9000ish/will-the-eff-get-10-of-the-votes-in

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the EFF get at least 10% of the vote? Resolves when official results announced by Electoral Commission of South Africa [updated for clarity]

N/A

r3elkRN6rjOC5S5v8mWzyxxGpHq1

qpYHVJU8qXZrvHF99yOz

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Destiny's video "Destiny Debates Adin Ross On Andrew Tate" reach 300k views or more by 3/13 9 A.M. PST?

will-destinys-video-destiny-debates-f40d1bc25599

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-destiny-debates-f40d1bc25599

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtu.be/TYo31aYOngo If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

3pxjXqa3r5bJ3dKzkdsg

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will XRP close higher on December 10 than it closed on December 9?

will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-1b85c417bfb4

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-1b85c417bfb4

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting Previous Close: $0.6590 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

rKzGWxDNGDhwB25u8cVM

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher August 16th Than August 15th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]

will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-bb138958dceb

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-bb138958dceb

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC. Predictions close 1 hours prior. [image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

osc7sixIgvJUZuxSITB5

0WmXibSBRMUi13W4O0MW4HovQxB2

exfaux

Paul (exfaux)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5bdUgHizmFEa64tufZJLWxM5nqkjJMVnV-sZOZfw=s96-c

Will Resident Evil 4 remake sell more copies in one week than Resident Evil 2 remake did (~3M)?

will-resident-evil-4-remake-sell-mo

https://manifold.markets/exfaux/will-resident-evil-4-remake-sell-mo

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

N/A

EDDgCICUqgxXbGuE2Xor

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 15th May than it closed on 12th May?

will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-deb7e533d4f3

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-deb7e533d4f3

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monday 15th May than it did on Friday 11th May? The stock market is closed on Saturday and Sunday. The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE. And here are some longer term FTSE markets: [markets]

N/A

nMK1u6Wkvi6DLsOD13yh

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏀 2023 NCAAB: Will #2 Purdue beat #4 Marquette?

-2023-ncaab-will-2-purdue-beat-4-ma

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaab-will-2-purdue-beat-4-ma

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

2023-11-22 at 5 PM ET in Honolulu, HI. Line: Marquette +3. Final game at Maui Invitational.

N/A

VHTsyCSZqKpRh4fWCwPb

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Rheinmetall close higher november 24th than the close of november 17th? (Weekly Market)

will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-390944819036

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-390944819036

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

EYwdZD8VLeSMghSYRguu

jwO79yttaPXUFrcuvnnttQWYMf73

Wieneron

Debaser

Will Lebron James win 2023 Finals MVP?

will-lebron-james-win-2023-finals-m

https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/will-lebron-james-win-2023-finals-m

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will Lebron win his 5th Finals MVp award this year?

N/A

PFquJ86tyuUXsWKgTW7G

04XyRIRHOfRFaXZxP2V4wUaMExn1

STGO

SANTIAGO SUÁREZ

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSANTIAGOSUAREZ%2FL9c56Nt3Nr.12?alt=media&token=1dfacc72-4f9e-4ad6-94f3-94b6dd0e84a1

Will Pep Guardiola hold his head during the Champions League Final game?

will-pep-guardiola-hold-his-head-du

https://manifold.markets/STGO/will-pep-guardiola-hold-his-head-du

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

If Guardiola is seen with both hands over and touching his head during the official TV international transmission, the market will resolve to YES. Disclaimers: It will only count if Guardiola holds his head during the official game time, that is excluding pre-game, half-time and the time after the final whistle. Both hands on his face (cheeks, chin, etc.), but not on his bald head, will not count. See examples below. The following example would NOT count, as he has only one hand touching his head: [image]The following example would also NOT count, as his hands are only touching his cheeks: [image]The following example WOULD TOTALLY count: [image]

N/A

Chg0Q8KA0kXrUe9F9AhV

zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1

_deleted_

~deleted~

Will DALLE-3 be able to draw a frog riding a bird? (50% success rate)

will-dalle3-be-able-to-draw-a-frog-8ac6b3b6f8ca

https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-dalle3-be-able-to-draw-a-frog-8ac6b3b6f8ca

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

prompt: "A frog riding on top of a bird" I will run the prompt 10x. If it can produce it correctly 50% of the time, this market will resolve to YES, otherwise NO. Unfortunately it's not easy to rigorously define judgment, so I will use my own observation to decide if the picture really shows a frog riding a bird. I will also take inputs from @StrayClimb prior to resolution.

N/A

ZvWY0ZkSRVuiwZEHe3qb

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 500k views?

will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-b222c8c23bd3

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-b222c8c23bd3

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolution base on the video view counts on Lex Fridman's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman/videos Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 500k views at the end of the month (Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) *Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

NPJwqQ8jtJxuFWy4Iua0

5FX7gld3dVgwzwC9IWfMhxiT7GK2

EsquifeTheWise

EsquifeTheWise

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdx28bVeI20yFHwPkm9MHvJrxLBC2U1eee13ZFA8M2FwJE=s96-c

Will Shohei Ohtani be traded during the 2023 MLB season?

will-shohei-ohtani-be-traded-during

https://manifold.markets/EsquifeTheWise/will-shohei-ohtani-be-traded-during

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml [link preview]Question resolves YES if Ohtani is traded by the Angels during the 2023 season.

N/A

UsNaaq0IWJ1mcYQcMgIZ

Kr23YYpkdnU4JFFqHr2NxEV6PvN2

jgyou

JGY

Will the Mega Millions $1.25 billion jackpot be won by more than one ticket holder on Friday, 8/4?

will-the-mega-millions-125-billion-c660b88a95dd

https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-the-mega-millions-125-billion-c660b88a95dd

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Edit: Refers to the 8/4 drawing, now at 1.35b Note that a consistent estimate of the number of tickets sold should peg this market tightly to https://manifold.markets/owenc333/will-the-mega-millions-125-billion#3KAMRNagOE5WXCXjyCr8 [link preview]

N/A

oisvzJlQXR3Zj9ZmzcBm

6yyO7c9thMah6jtdVEzLAH3LLe72

Tsunombie

Tsunombie

Will the USA-Canada border be fully closed (and then stay closed for at least 24 hours) by November 30, 2023?

will-the-usacanada-border-be-fully

https://manifold.markets/Tsunombie/will-the-usacanada-border-be-fully

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

"Fully closed" means all border stations closed to regular travel. Times are judged by US Eastern Standard Time. "By November 30, 2023" means the 24 minimum hours of closure must begin before the first second of November 30 EST. The market will close before then, but might not resolve until it's clear whether the 24-hour minimum has been completed.

N/A

c7vUW2ZF8mItHAptPjgP

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

strutheo

chris (strutheo)

Will the TikTok ban be signed by Biden before the end of June 2024?

will-the-tiktok-ban-be-signed-befor

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-tiktok-ban-be-signed-befor

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

@/strutheo/will-the-tiktok-ban-be-signed-by-a

N/A

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

hKKrXFzIKTOjRzrfgfo8

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

citrinitas

Anton Paquin

Will Cruise's SF driverless vehicle permit be un-suspended by April 2024?

will-cruises-sf-driverless-vehicle

https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-cruises-sf-driverless-vehicle

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

See https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/cruise-llc-driverless-robotaxis-california-dmv-suspends-permits/ [link preview]If cruise is allowed to operate driverless vehicles in San Francisco at any point between now and the beginning of 1 April 2024, this resolves YES. If it's April 1 and this has not yet happened, resolves NO. Test drivers don't count, as far as I can tell they're still allowed to do that. Resolves on public info shared with this market.

N/A

8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92

XpviFpUL8pZiNnGGAm7Q

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

itsTomekK

Tomek ⚡ K

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

Will President Biden declare a new National Emergency by the end of 2022?

will-president-biden-declare-a-new

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-president-biden-declare-a-new

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency powers, available to the President upon the declaration of an emergency (so called "National Emergency"). Congress also can terminate an emergency declaration with a joint resolution enacted into law. Please note, for this market to resolve to "Yes" the national emergency declaration must be official, issued under authority of the National Emergencies Act by the Executive Office of the President. Any public announcement by President Biden without an official declaration will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". A continuation of any existing National Emergencies will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". An executive emergency order which is not subject to the provisions of the National Emergencies Act will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Register of official documents published by the Executive Office of the President (https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president), however other official government sources may be used.

N/A

SvIbbIGnpOsqjjXMHdaU

Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1

TimP

Tim P

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c

Will there be a new nuclear reactor operating in Germany, in 2023?

will-there-be-a-new-nuclear-reactor

https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-there-be-a-new-nuclear-reactor

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves yes if there is a reactor, that didn't deliver electricity in 2022, delivering electricity at any point during that year. #politics #world #technology #energy

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

mQoDo4ticT6EskRw9Eda

qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63

Agh

Agh

Will Destiny hire Lycan?

will-destiny-hire-lycan

https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-destiny-hire-lycan

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Lycan offered to be destiny's chef (source). Will destiny hire him? He doesn't have to be a chef, if he is hired for any other job (e.g. assistant/maid) this would also resolve YES. He doesn't have to start working by market close, but there has to be credible evidence that they have more than a verbal agreement. related markets: @/Agh/will-destiny-hire-a-maid-before-the @/Agh/will-destiny-hire-a-new-personal-as

N/A

y0Xmv6AsGI3oxlM3cKQb

mmEZytBuIHaiJCaArATfLWaopJz1

hib

hi-b

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLZIEywwtCSryhTAUEHWhpryHH39zp_FfXewoqjE4TvTiY=s96-c

Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 90% or more of the vote?

will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-141195cab033

https://manifold.markets/hib/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-141195cab033

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This is a variation of cshunter's question but with the threshold set to 90%. Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows: 2018: 77.53% 2012: 64.35% 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote) 2004: 71.91% 2000: 53.44% Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 90% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page? In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used. Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202)(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-54159d9de26d)

N/A

JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2

GsAPVZwaZGiU85jCYRBi

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

MetaculusBot

Metaculus Bot

Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Lakers)

which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-0ff32dfbe823

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-0ff32dfbe823