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HfAri5xzxr1Bg0e1XDXh | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,842,773,493 | 1,701,111,600,000 | Will the TSX close higher on November 27 than it did on November 24? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-f7c9c2c5abbd | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-f7c9c2c5abbd | {
"NO": 119.50730241014988,
"YES": 717.5975774346077
} | 0.065159 | 0.295044 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,873.079919 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,125,008,873 | 0.07 | 11 | 1,701,125,003,810 | 1,701,111,088,704 | 1,701,125,003,106 | [
"economics-default",
"hawsbollah",
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
MljfVj2cvgeMx6FJmNvt | gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2 | Clark | Clark 🐶 | 1,710,739,059,200 | 1,714,546,740,000 | Will Tiësto drop a remix of Charli XCX's "Von Dutch" by end of April? | will-tiesto-drop-a-remix-of-charli | https://manifold.markets/Clark/will-tiesto-drop-a-remix-of-charli | {
"NO": 71.52696893251914,
"YES": 3488.757422256736
} | 0.01 | 0.330064 | 320 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,432.202336 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,654,925,840 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,714,546,740,000 | 1,714,544,833,765 | 1,714,408,009,807 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"culture-default",
"entertainment"
] | I feel like he will, because:
- he has worked with her already to great success, and he is enthusiastic about repeat collaborations (eg Karol G)
- track's pretty good
- he is aware of it and likes it (evidence: it was included in the most recent Club Life set)
Is my prediction correct?
Resolves YES if there is a Tiësto remix of the track on any platform before the end of April 2024. | N/A | gPSYNnNzGYcud85p9rXwirBmsGe2 | null |
|
TZcEnyxoxuTZJc9DIIDJ | ZNbZqVJ7rJUmjzymhIgtfMc6JJQ2 | wadimiusz | Vadim | 1,703,185,081,634 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu30gaq8rWjmpzfVLcGMCtPvX9oYTxN3NWEN6SJ4=s96-c | 1,706,009,911,929 | Will Yekaterina Duntsova claim to have met the independent candidate requirements for Russia's 2024 election? | will-yekaterina-duntsova-claim-to-h | https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/will-yekaterina-duntsova-claim-to-h | {
"NO": 83.50269991419063,
"YES": 294.7621250214032
} | 0.18 | 0.436579 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 618.457843 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,099,149,418 | 0.18 | 7 | 1,706,286,768,636 | 1,706,009,624,650 | 1,706,010,726,636 | [
"russia",
"ukrainerussia-war",
"putin-succession",
"2024-russia-elections"
] | A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Yekaterina Duntsova intends to run for president. She openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
An independent candidate is legally required to meet a number of requirements, including a collection of 300,000 signatures in support of their participation.
This resolves YES if Yekaterina Duntsova claims to have met them - including collecting the required signatures (NOT on the Russian central electoral committee accepting the signatures, or her candidacy).
I can't think of weird edge cases. I may or may not freeze the market and consult the traders, or resolve N/A, if a weird edge case arises. | N/A | ZNbZqVJ7rJUmjzymhIgtfMc6JJQ2 | |
pCqrqhTKgDwPJ4t1S07K | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,359,044,316 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,705,186,740,000 | Economy 2023: US inflation above 4.0%? | economy-2023-us-inflation-above-40 | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/economy-2023-us-inflation-above-40 | {
"NO": 508.43918358358934,
"YES": 20947.758927073835
} | 0.008891 | 0.269863 | 1,495 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 48,446.394829 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,960,974,620 | 0.01 | 91 | 1,706,960,975,376 | 1,705,171,742,214 | 1,705,023,025,469 | [
"2023-matt-yglesias-predictions",
"economics-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
[image]
| N/A | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | null |
0qUNepxUi8YZOsDP7Vuo | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,150,148,262 | 1,703,374,200,000 | Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-24 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-ebe59a7c63d | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-ebe59a7c63d | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.066667 | 0.066667 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,515,279,688 | 0.07 | 0 | 1,703,150,153,787 | 1,703,150,153,657 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-23 23:30 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-24 - 01:30 (UTC)
17:30 (Los Angeles)
20:30 (New York)
02:30 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 07:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
tLJ6kRw8zxmBzlLaPQW1 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,712,316,450,145 | 1,713,135,540,000 | Will 20+ Conservatives call to end arms sales to Israel by the end of next week? (According to the Spectator's count) | will-20-conservatives-call-to-end-a | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-20-conservatives-call-to-end-a | {
"NO": 238.31703353197668,
"YES": 2758.2202648922503
} | 0.030792 | 0.268845 | 480 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,391 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,173,542,606 | 0.03 | 19 | 1,713,135,540,000 | 1,713,101,332,209 | 1,713,173,535,903 | [
"israel",
"rishi-sunak",
"israelhamas-conflict-2023",
"arabisraeli-conflict",
"benjamin-netanyahu",
"uk-politics",
"uk-conservative-party",
"politics-default"
] | Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, the fact that we sell arms to Israel has become a major political talking point in the UK. For more details, see this market on whether we will ban or restrict arms sales to Israel:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uk-ban-or-restrict-arms-sa
This is usually seen as a progressive position (the SNP, the Greens, the Lib Dems and figures on the left of Labour have been calling for a ban for some time) but more Conservative voices have joined the fray in the past few days.
The Spectator have been keeping a tally of Tory MPs and Lords who have called for a ban:
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/full-list-tories-calling-to-end-arms-sales-to-israel/
So far the list is:
David Jones MP
Flick Drummond MP
Lord Swire
Paul Bristow MP
Mark Logan MP, PPS Department for Work and Pensions
Lord Soames
Will this list reach 20 names by 10:00 PM UK time next Sunday (14th April)?
If the British Government or the Prime Minister concede and banning/restricting arms sales becomes the official position meaning that the list is no longer needed, the market will resolve to YES.
Otherwise, this market is based on the Spectator's list rather than any subjective judgement over who should be on the Spectator's list. If they stop updating their list before it gets to 20 people because the issue has fizzled out, that would result in this market resolving to NO. | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | null |
|
3p8UeExKEB9m0SoWBlu0 | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | DismalScientist | DismalScientist | 1,671,551,548,847 | 1,705,340,356,399 | Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly decreases earnings? | will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco | https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-the-kenya-universal-basic-inco | {
"NO": 837.9744833067543,
"YES": 1893.458662127827
} | 0.102653 | 0.205395 | 1,010 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,105.847534 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,340,356,399 | 0.1 | 50 | 1,705,340,357,603 | 1,704,921,438,980 | 1,704,138,483,036 | [
"economics-default",
"ubi",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Households in two Kenyan counties were randomly assigned to receive (or not) about US$0.75 per adult per day for 2 or 12 years. Transfers began in 2018.
Criteria: Earnings refers to "total annualized non-transfer income" as mentioned in their pre-analysis plan (at the bottom of linked page):
Description of experiment:
https://www.poverty-action.org/study/effects-universal-basic-income-kenya
Market for if increases earnings
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DismalScientist/will-givedirectly-kenya-universal-b)Quote from PAP: total annualized non-transfer income. This includes (wage) labor income (household survey, section G.1), agricultural income (including the value of any output consumed) (household survey, section G.3), non-agricultural self-employment income (enterprise survey), non-enterprise capital income - return on financial assets (balances in household survey, section C - financial assets, multiplied by standard rates we can look up), interest on casual loans (household survey, section E), and rent (household survey, section C - land and real estate), etc. It does not include transfers from government (household survey, section D), transfers from NGOs (household survey, section D) including those from GiveDirectly, and transfers from other households (household survey, section D). Here and elsewhere, we will value agricultural output when necessary using the median of available local estimates of its price.
2023 working paper: https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~pniehaus/papers/UBI_main_paper.pdf
If the "Long Term arm" has significantly lower non-transfer income (as defined by the PAP) than the Control group, then the market resolves Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves No.
Note that if the p-value is above .05 on this test, then the results will be considered insignificant and the market will resolve No.
The market will resolve based on the first set of results released by the authors on inflation that purports to be running the tests outlined in the PAP. | N/A | St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2 | ||
lH1NnXM8Ci0thjaAYPqE | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | SG | SG | 1,678,137,552,829 | 1,682,985,540,000 | Will the "Waluigi Effect" score higher on Google Trends in May 1st than April 1st? | will-the-waluigi-effect-score-highe | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-the-waluigi-effect-score-highe | {
"NO": 595.6866731732937,
"YES": 779.7742387490623
} | 0.271582 | 0.327983 | 690 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,898.795358 | 0 | true | NO | 1,683,576,821,172 | 0.27 | 23 | 1,683,576,857,705 | 1,682,984,258,655 | 1,683,576,855,559 | [
"lesswrong",
"ai"
] | Background: The Waluigi Effect
(If GTrends isn't granular to compare particular days, I'll use the week or highest resolution data which contains both April 1st and May 1st of 2023.) | N/A | null | ||
0jNt7rbBgybITBS9Qgo2 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | Ernie | Ernie | 1,696,180,470,147 | 1,703,402,053,116 | Will there ever be less than 200 limit orders on the main LK-99 market by end 2023 | will-there-ever-be-less-than-200-li | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-there-ever-be-less-than-200-li | {
"NO": 567.5622417501162,
"YES": 20.824931858059493
} | 0.992105 | 0.821779 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 742.861569 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,402,053,116 | 0.99 | 8 | 1,703,393,137,706 | 1,703,393,137,579 | 1,703,381,349,211 | [
"lk99-derivative-markets",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This number gets to below 200.
This may be hard to reproduce/validate but we'll do our best.
If manifold fixes the way you can over-commit mana that has no effect. The thing that matters is whether there are <200 limit orders on the books.
If this number is removed or the system changes so that the concept of counting limit orders doesn't make sense, this will NA.
This is the main market:
@/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
[image] | N/A | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | null |
|
t2gpVsfLbt4dCvIVtxLD | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,682,099,567,897 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,682,424,595,365 | Communists vs Nazis (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of Ṁ10k per) | communists-vs-nazis-3-day-market-li-d2b2826766c0 | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/communists-vs-nazis-3-day-market-li-d2b2826766c0 | {
"NO": 9820.578030925204,
"YES": 4.117508888535667
} | 0.999616 | 0.522069 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,182.194892 | 0 | true | YES | 1,682,424,595,365 | 1 | 8 | 1,710,206,705,822 | 1,682,424,589,620 | 1,682,424,577,453 | [
"politics-default",
"fun",
"whale-watching",
"gambling"
] | Yes = Communists
No = Nazis
I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.
Rules
The largest single limit order you can put down is Ṁ10k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:
Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a Ṁ100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.
Prevent whales from putting down multiple Ṁ10k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.
Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.
Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a Ṁ50k or Ṁ100k limit order and automatically win.
If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.
After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.
Market closes on 4/24/23 8 A.M. PST | N/A | null | null |
QS6T95GJQYaYqya5fww4 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,675,406,677,706 | 1,704,070,493,944 | Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Lightweight Champion at the end of 2023? | will-islam-makhachev-be-the-ufc-lig | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-islam-makhachev-be-the-ufc-lig | {
"NO": 11308.813047556147,
"YES": 76.22172089056039
} | 0.997351 | 0.717312 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 17,982.300582 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,070,493,944 | 1 | 21 | 1,704,070,494,621 | 1,703,969,561,484 | 1,704,040,678,563 | [
"sports-default",
"mma-mixed-martial-arts",
"mma",
"combat-sports",
"ufc"
] | This market will resolve to YES if Islam Makhachev is the current title holder at 23:59 Dec 31, UTC+00:00. It will resolve to NO if he is not.
If there happens to be an event held on that night, the title is presumed to have changed hands when the announcer says the line beginning with "And new". | N/A | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | ||
WyZAY72OWyOY36atZZm7 | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,705,990,303,740 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,706,526,389,308 | [Metaculus] Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024? | metaculus-will-a-team-that-has-neve | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-a-team-that-has-neve | {
"NO": 135.41831969573036,
"YES": 8708.669333281729
} | 0.002213 | 0.124842 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,367.32525 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,526,389,308 | 0 | 13 | 1,706,526,390,021 | 1,706,515,289,172 | -1 | [
"metaculus"
] | Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21093/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, or Houston Texans win Super Bowl 58.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | |
Ei9Iso0eAOhtsMPNRFD4 | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,698,606,758,459 | 1,699,142,400,000 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Charlotte beat Tulsa? | -2023-ncaaf-will-charlotte-beat-tul | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-charlotte-beat-tul | {
"NO": 1407.1524086010163,
"YES": 2.587051474309993
} | 0.997649 | 0.438224 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,712.119256 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,142,580,564 | 1 | 8 | 1,699,142,055,074 | 1,699,142,054,942 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football",
"aac"
] | 2023-11-04 at 4 PM ET in Tulsa, OK | N/A | null | null |
|
5OTtwdV7j7VgUR9AAki0 | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,680,958,728,120 | 1,697,613,273,188 | Will a majority of voters in every single state vote YES on the Australian Indigenous Voice referendum? | will-a-majority-of-voters-in-every | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-a-majority-of-voters-in-every | {
"NO": 20.970805226519587,
"YES": 75166.78164908812
} | 0.000118 | 0.297178 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 75,249.727012 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,613,273,188 | 0 | 18 | 1,697,613,268,210 | 1,697,613,268,078 | 1,685,935,523,227 | [
"australia",
"australian-politics",
"indigenous-voice-referendum"
] | A referendum to alter the constitution in Australia must achieve a double majority in order to pass - it must be approved by a majority of those voting, and also separately it must be approved by a majority of voters in a majority of states (at least 4 out of 6 states).
If a majority of voters in all of each of the 6 states vote YES in the referendum, this market will resolve to YES.
If there is at least one state in which YES voters did not make up the majority of the vote, this market will resolve to NO. | N/A | null | ||
Kade6ps4G72kGxZtDlWR | yl07iBAY4pfI0wRJ0pW3DO9UNwJ3 | IdraTheRage | IdraTheRage | 1,675,365,497,406 | 1,675,413,445,438 | Will I delete my account by February 3rd 2023? | will-i-delete-my-account-by-febuary | https://manifold.markets/IdraTheRage/will-i-delete-my-account-by-febuary | {
"NO": 90.56966633307547,
"YES": 233.23344248822738
} | 0.17 | 0.345313 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 348.79412 | 0 | true | YES | 1,675,413,445,438 | 0.17 | 6 | 1,675,413,436,405 | 1,675,403,099,830 | 1,675,413,432,783 | [
"destinygg",
"manifold-6748e065087e"
] | I waste too much time on this app and have bet everything on Will Destiny finish Factorio in the next "day or two"? | Manifold Markets.
I have considered deleting my account. Will I go through with it if I lose everything or will I abandon my fellow NAYERS in the market and capitalize on their demise and continue my addiction with this app?
Feb 2, 8:20pm: Will I delete my account by Febuary 3rd 2023? → Will I delete my account by February 3rd 2023?
Close date updated to 2023-02-03 12:59 am
Close date updated to 2023-02-03 11:59 pm | N/A | null | ||
0tnAAgecLDfbxjY07OH7 | NLV3nLaJHEQv0Q9z8T6swMx6RpD3 | StockBro | StockBro | 1,714,754,846,488 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIlJZdzHQtwoVjhBNKijAwkOu7CNQUmjS58o9DONGdpL1EWeg=s96-c | 1,715,025,940,636 | Will Tesla stock (TSLA) close above its previous closing price (May 3 2024) on May 6 2024? | will-tesla-stock-tsla-close-above-i | https://manifold.markets/StockBro/will-tesla-stock-tsla-close-above-i | {
"NO": 699.9999999999709,
"YES": 14.285714285714915
} | 0.98 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,062.605063 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,025,940,636 | 0.98 | 16 | 1,715,025,940,636 | 1,715,023,745,636 | 1,715,019,751,798 | [
"stocks",
"daily-markets",
"tesla",
"finance",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"
] | Daily question
Will be resolved after the market is closed according to
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/historical
All my markets are available in this dashboard
https://manifold.markets/news/daily-stocks-dashboard-stockbro
Checkout my similar markets:
Will Microsoft stock (MSFT) close above its previous closing price (May 3 2024) on May 6 2024?
Will Nvidia stock (NVDA) close above its previous closing price (May 3 2024) on May 6 2024?
| N/A | NLV3nLaJHEQv0Q9z8T6swMx6RpD3 | null |
X0NCLAAGUT4tRPUvdxSY | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | Arch1e | Archie | 1,715,717,767,267 | 1,716,042,172,547 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will any driver from the Top 5 constructors be eliminated in Q1 during qualifying in Italy? | 2024-formula-1-season-will-any-driv-9f9997fae4c5 | https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2024-formula-1-season-will-any-driv-9f9997fae4c5 | {
"NO": 994.987437106619,
"YES": 10.050378152592089
} | 0.99 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 999.366804 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,042,172,547 | 0.99 | 4 | 1,716,042,172,547 | 1,716,041,945,312 | 1,716,041,969,012 | [
"formula-1",
"auto-racing",
"motorsports"
] | Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin fails to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Italian Grand Prix (Imola).
If there is a replacement/reserve driver for any of these five teams, and that driver fails to get into Q2, the market will still resolve YES.
If a driver from one of the top 5 constructors never starts qualifying (the car never exits the garage during the session), the market will not resolve YES, and will continue.
If there is an issue that forces a car to retire from the top 5 teams after they've left the garage (and had to immediately retire for example) the market would resolve YES. | N/A | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||
UR2iJSGUCmHoKjZx27Dm | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,920,399,682 | 1,705,135,500,000 | Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-13 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-616edce07c9c | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-616edce07c9c | {
"NO": 131.2753194613612,
"YES": 110.12750000594437
} | 0.15 | 0.128952 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 77.356936 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,180,297,220 | 0.15 | 6 | 1,705,180,297,491 | 1,705,134,965,064 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-13 08:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-13 - 10:45 (UTC)
02:45 (Los Angeles)
05:45 (New York)
11:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:15
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
jxjC42pqmpPz6rTweWQ9 | MW1SiNGS3cT1YYCsEcu67n1V02c2 | Heaffey | Heaffey | 1,664,003,090,384 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpUsV_FsERh3qn-8uHd-1Z847JkXZrYBJlPNZ0Rzg=s96-c | 1,713,916,800,000 | Will the uk have higher tax receipts in 2023 then 2022? | will-the-uk-have-higher-tax-receipt | https://manifold.markets/Heaffey/will-the-uk-have-higher-tax-receipt | {
"NO": 3060.5786687875366,
"YES": 94.07687140540612
} | 0.99 | 0.752664 | 260 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,189.869284 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,023,184,787 | 0.99 | 18 | 1,713,916,800,000 | 1,713,339,204,333 | 1,714,023,178,206 | [
"uk-politics",
"uk-economic-data",
"economics-default",
"uk-tax"
] | As the government have slashed uk taxs. Will the total tax receipts be higher in 2023 then 2022. According to gov.uk | N/A | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | null |
Dx1DfXsHQz1wRpdl3spy | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,700,064,325,814 | 1,700,152,200,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 16th November than it closed on 15th November? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-21089edb7478 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-21089edb7478 | {
"NO": 54.19310845171703,
"YES": 2581.3163080168047
} | 0.007895 | 0.274852 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,098.811397 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,153,782,620 | 0.01 | 11 | 1,710,462,490,688 | 1,700,150,499,197 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"sccsq4",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 16th November than it did on Wednesday 15th November?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
pNOOWnUEzyb2YwZvSgAf | jkmSAh3oALhfWY6o993XQMfanuu2 | JonathanMo | Jonathan Mo | 1,662,853,928,094 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml0IaVsA8hrQBTEJMok7OdQ-8aBKz9hvXY1OmYa=s96-c | 1,668,136,030,155 | 2022 Confirmed Startup Layoffs (https://layoffs.fyi/) over 110,000 by EOD 31 Dec 2022? | 2022-confirmed-startup-layoffs-http | https://manifold.markets/JonathanMo/2022-confirmed-startup-layoffs-http | {
"NO": 1569.8753135564339,
"YES": 33.55087575322726
} | 0.989251 | 0.662942 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,770.301119 | 0 | true | YES | 1,668,136,030,155 | 0.989251 | 11 | 1,668,133,638,005 | 1,668,037,572,253 | 1,668,133,635,924 | [
"economics-default",
"free-money"
] | As measured by site Layoffs.fyi (which crowdsources and verifies startup company layoffs), by EOD on 31 Dec 2022 WILL 2022 layoffs (using filter "Layoffs In 2022") be MORE than 110,000? Yes or No? | N/A | null | null |
n8dogcTDL0gAiyvAN4Te | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,689,974,442,719 | 1,690,066,800,000 | Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher July 22nd Than July 21st? | will-litecoin-close-higher-july-22n | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-close-higher-july-22n | {
"NO": 48.096934328184396,
"YES": 1403.4236473225258
} | 0.020388 | 0.377834 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,075.074644 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,070,923,605 | 0.02 | 9 | 1,690,070,913,097 | 1,690,066,458,790 | 1,690,070,909,705 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"crypto-speculation",
"economics-default"
] | LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 hours prior.
JULY 21st Close Value: $94.09
[image]Resolves according to the display at
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD
[link preview]If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-22n)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bch-close-higher)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-ju-5ba36c22117b)I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
LEADERBOARD STATS & PRIZES | N/A | null | null |
|
WhmAvqtfRAW5qn7p0SVe | S8pMsYeu44g3CvaumE6HCgkkScC3 | billyhumblebrag | Billy | 1,694,731,670,596 | 1,695,024,549,432 | Will Tua Tagovailoa score more fantasy points than Joe Burrow week 2? | will-tua-tagovailoa-score-more-fant | https://manifold.markets/billyhumblebrag/will-tua-tagovailoa-score-more-fant | {
"NO": 45.462372220134796,
"YES": 5240.942637317892
} | 0.009783 | 0.532489 | 730 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,153.930732 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,024,549,432 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,695,019,351,860 | 1,695,019,351,687 | -1 | [
"nfl"
] | Need to decide who to play. Based on the espn fantasy app, 0.5 ppr. | N/A | null | null |
|
nh8OaAtfV9yTJe4z8fqj | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | Predictor | Predictor 🔥 | 1,667,855,071,917 | 1,667,937,600,000 | Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.00 on November 8, 2022? | will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-aca1e2156ca4 | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-aca1e2156ca4 | {
"NO": 99.4690398369453,
"YES": 367.1748352321907
} | 0.159252 | 0.41149 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,309.565462 | 0 | true | NO | 1,667,941,248,559 | 0.159252 | 10 | 1,667,942,416,575 | 1,667,934,001,070 | 1,667,942,415,193 | [
"wall-street-bets"
] | This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close.
Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY | N/A | null | ||
KsiRZMaW7M4PU1RyfdPj | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,669,046,277,308 | 1,669,151,100,000 | Will France win against Australia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? | will-the-france-win-against-austral | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-the-france-win-against-austral | {
"NO": 6497.23349741757,
"YES": 127.7480848353379
} | 0.993054 | 0.737608 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,356.938484 | 0 | true | YES | 1,669,151,317,800 | 0.636941 | 21 | 1,669,151,428,686 | 1,669,150,134,565 | 1,669,151,428,150 | [
"2022-fifa-world-cup"
] | Resolves YES if the France wins against Australia in their group match on November 22. Resolves NO if Australia wins the match or the match ends in a tie.
Nov 21, 4:16pm: Will the France win against Australia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup? → Will France win against Australia at the 2022 FIFA World Cup?
Close date updated to 2022-11-22 4:05 pm | N/A | null | ||
UiSlSTTNMI6bSWgNHixD | guYertc5rtMOKqi6r6v3HB8C2hl2 | BrianONeill | Brian ONeill | 1,663,980,189,942 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-hDRiAh3YSUl8nZssK28FNtsCOGmjV2UflfmUWqg=s96-c | 1,664,596,740,000 | Will Trump get indicted for the events of January 6th? | will-trump-get-indicted-for-the-eve | https://manifold.markets/BrianONeill/will-trump-get-indicted-for-the-eve | {
"NO": 65.4653670707977,
"YES": 152.75252316519473
} | 0.3 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 251.792237 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,235,203,113 | 0.3 | 11 | 1,697,235,216,167 | 1,664,590,288,797 | 1,697,235,215,451 | [
"eag-dc-2022",
"donald-trump"
] | N/A | null | null |
|
Xwsr2pj07Yuk3tXUu2ax | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,707,944,275,106 | 1,708,115,100,000 | Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-02-16 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-c3d259854ddc | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-c3d259854ddc | {
"NO": 68.16457111749712,
"YES": 80.00000000000003
} | 0.141384 | 0.161957 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,178,009,945 | 0.14 | 2 | 1,708,178,010,153 | 1,708,113,645,966 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-16 20:25 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-16 - 22:25 (UTC)
14:25 (Los Angeles)
17:25 (New York)
23:25 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 06:45
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
1BfpYYlIz09wXTy2DlSy | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,674,259,047,117 | 1,692,083,557,256 | Will the Special Grand Jury in Fulton County Georgia recommend an indictment of Donald Trump? | will-the-special-grand-jury-in-fult | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-special-grand-jury-in-fult | {
"NO": 6605.178746091955,
"YES": 705.9694378775218
} | 0.980128 | 0.840554 | 1,030 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 24,201.076303 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,083,557,256 | 0.98 | 53 | 1,692,083,538,876 | 1,692,083,538,758 | 1,689,786,207,676 | [
"law-order",
"magaland",
"trial-of-the-century",
"georgia"
] | The Special Grand Jury cannot issue charges, but instead has more investigative powers than a normal grand jury. They finished work and completed their report with indictment recommendations last week and a hearing is set for the 24th to determine if that report is to be made public. This market resolves YES based on the reports recommendation of an indictment, resolves NO if recommends against an indictment.
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:59 pm | N/A | null | ||
UFeGHiTRVycYcLu5af6I | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,696,023,926,058 | 1,696,273,415,247 | Will the TSX close higher on October 2 than it did on September 29? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe | {
"NO": 64.97167568272236,
"YES": 861.028712726318
} | 0.020289 | 0.215345 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 763.911111 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,279,797,939 | 0.02 | 5 | 1,696,279,793,350 | 1,696,267,845,060 | 1,696,279,792,752 | [
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard.
Q3 2023 (July/August/September)
Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:
1st place - Ṁ3,000
2nd place - Ṁ2,000
3rd place - Ṁ1,000
4th place = Ṁ500
5th place - Ṁ250
@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
kyNPyTwlf4Gd4fNmPjOl | FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92 | charlie | charlie | 1,644,610,924,663 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c | 1,648,364,340,000 | Will Lady Gaga win best actress at the 2022 Academy Awards? | will-lady-gaga-win-best-actress-at | https://manifold.markets/charlie/will-lady-gaga-win-best-actress-at | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.073423 | 0.073423 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,403.118836 | 0 | true | NO | 1,648,461,219,312 | 0.073423 | 13 | 1,644,610,924,663 | -1 | -1 | [] | This market resolves to "YES" if Lady Gaga wins Best Actress at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony scheduled to take place on March 27, 2022. | N/A | null | null |
qb5nOnIIU0yueltWGdhq | hYgEp39f1mdQcNBzZ2urgsmxuUq1 | NedZ | Ned Z | 1,712,307,718,533 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL6usWRA9mhh44fKLTei3n1cYYW0eMqbMdtq1jX0OPe=s96-c | 1,714,690,740,000 | Will Conservative Ben Houchen be reelected in the 2024 Tees Valley mayoral election? | will-conservative-ben-houchen-be-re | https://manifold.markets/NedZ/will-conservative-ben-houchen-be-re | {
"NO": 645.8057298461473,
"YES": 150.6750041829237
} | 0.764926 | 0.431559 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,172.699625 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,735,703,189 | 0.76 | 17 | 1,714,690,740,000 | 1,714,653,455,520 | -1 | [
"uk",
"politics-default",
"uk-politics",
"uk-conservative-party",
"elections"
] | YES if Ben Houchen wins the 2024 Tees Valley mayoral election.
NO if he does not.
The 2024 Tees Valley mayoral election takes place on May 2nd 2024.
Incumbent Ben Houchen is standing for the Conservatives and Chris McEwan for Labour.
Houchen took 72.8% of the vote in the last election in 2021. However, both the limited local polling and Labour's strong performance in national polls suggest that this will be a much more competitive election. | N/A | hYgEp39f1mdQcNBzZ2urgsmxuUq1 | null |
uw6e3WoB2eSMeAsrbrmK | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,696,817,445,825 | 1,696,874,100,165 | Will Israel regain control of all territory by Oct 15? | will-israel-regain-control-of-all-t | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-israel-regain-control-of-all-t | {
"NO": 6928.0678892347505,
"YES": 278.33076683118
} | 0.993786 | 0.865322 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,784.431688 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,874,100,165 | 0.99 | 24 | 1,696,874,088,023 | 1,696,874,087,708 | 1,696,874,079,569 | [
"israeli-politics",
"israel",
"arabisraeli-conflict"
] | Resolves the same as https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-regain-control-of-all-territory-by-oct-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel regains control over all territories in which control was lost relative to Oct 5, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time by the resolution date, Oct 15, 2023, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. "Regaining control" is defined as Israel establishing political and military authority in the territories. The resolution will be based on credible reporting from international media outlets. This market will resolve immediately if Israel regains control over all its territories.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
TmamxA8jEhhjoVZKLx8J | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,684,125,201,821 | 1,704,115,107,307 | Will 'The Little Mermaid' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024? | will-the-little-mermaid-2023-gross | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-little-mermaid-2023-gross | {
"NO": 79.7279549309003,
"YES": 3682.439391854643
} | 0.007644 | 0.262426 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,308.397591 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,115,107,307 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,704,115,108,271 | 1,696,152,409,728 | 1,704,115,101,220 | [
"boxoffice",
"disney",
"movies"
] | Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5971474/ | N/A | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | ||
4zDo2EW761hSAdcPaRh1 | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | Predictor | Predictor 🔥 | 1,688,394,432,273 | 1,688,498,795,953 | Will Joey Chestnut eat more than 70 hot dogs in the 2023 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? | will-joey-chestnut-eat-more-than-70 | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-joey-chestnut-eat-more-than-70 | {
"NO": 54.11040846980069,
"YES": 1004.2706980147165
} | 0.16 | 0.779501 | 570 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,669.003836 | 0 | true | NO | 1,688,498,795,953 | 0.16 | 29 | 1,688,499,008,895 | 1,688,498,775,432 | 1,688,499,005,325 | [
"entertainment",
"science-default"
] | Nathan's Coney Island Men's Hot Dog Eating Contest
YES - 71+
NO - 70 and under
| N/A | null | ||
WbH5SnY5uH6jyl1m7Swd | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,005,495,905 | 1,683,422,570,949 | Will Devin Clark beat Kennedy Nzechukwu at UFC 288? | will-devin-clark-beat-kennedy-nzech | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-devin-clark-beat-kennedy-nzech | {
"NO": 1.7678557885301411,
"YES": 11373.811649078629
} | 0.000126 | 0.447287 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,680 | 0 | true | NO | 1,683,422,570,949 | 0 | 5 | 1,683,422,563,271 | 1,683,422,563,116 | -1 | [
"ufc",
"ufc-288",
"mma",
"combat-sports"
] | Devin Clark and Kennedy Nzechukwu are scheduled to fight on May 6th at UFC 288 in Newark, New Jersey.
If Devin Clark wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Kennedy Nzechukwu wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | ||
cpVzEn9uVNL21SocnF4L | PXelv1QrwZPOyEcal9Rg6B6gxer2 | CromlynGames | Patrick Barry | 1,693,856,102,392 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCromlynGames%2F3S6CfEbdrZ._The_zombies_gut_is_missing_5460183c-da59-4002-a7d8-abbd87b47b2d?alt=media&token=ce64ada6-2f49-4765-ad0c-fed13541dc5e | 1,703,289,540,000 | Will Gillian Keegan still be UK education secretary at start of Christmas school holidays? | will-gillian-keegan-still-be-uk-edu | https://manifold.markets/CromlynGames/will-gillian-keegan-still-be-uk-edu | {
"NO": 1347.0782288524736,
"YES": 57.07815734498229
} | 0.989058 | 0.792965 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,309.631924 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,758,369,612 | 0.99 | 6 | 1,703,758,371,151 | 1,703,054,619,413 | -1 | [
"uk-politics"
] | Education secretary overseeing the current RAAC building material scandal that has closed a bunch of schools before the academic year starts.
She's also made a point of blaming her predecessors which include the current PM
https://au.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/169qyqp/gillian_keegan_on_raac_scandal_yknow_nobody_says/
(RAAC scandal has been rumbling for decades, likely to spread to hospitals and universities and office buildings from the 1970s)
[link preview] | N/A | PXelv1QrwZPOyEcal9Rg6B6gxer2 | null |
kcKUG7chjJpfLghNDQgL | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,695,316,430,955 | 1,695,495,900,000 | Will BA flight 442 from London to Amsterdam on 2023-09-23 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-9e7e10d6d3b6 | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-9e7e10d6d3b6 | {
"NO": 1838.8169077148614,
"YES": 121.77268158873709
} | 0.978138 | 0.747664 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,489.45225 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,544,378,689 | 0.98 | 16 | 1,695,544,123,009 | 1,695,494,664,333 | 1,695,544,122,472 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/2dnuuue9 | N/A | null | null |
|
N4S8vl9N2D7MjRt5xw3d | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | benshindel | Ben Shindel | 1,693,346,016,603 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu22VD_r1GJh-n-cEmVyjrKEFlOdTcYxeXuYzn_4Ag=s96-c | 1,712,120,340,000 | Will Gukesh D play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | will-gukesh-d-play-in-the-2024-fide | https://manifold.markets/benshindel/will-gukesh-d-play-in-the-2024-fide | {
"NO": 1133.4674223671698,
"YES": 15.42023254813745
} | 0.980945 | 0.411885 | 220.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,715.37392 | 0 | true | YES | 1,712,256,487,246 | 0.98 | 15 | 1,712,120,340,000 | 1,712,117,084,957 | 1,703,244,349,396 | [
"sports-default",
"chess"
] | This resolves positively if Gukesh is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
If Gukesh qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.
If Gukesh is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively.
This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Gukesh, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Gukesh being a listed player, or positively upon Gukesh playing a match in the tournament. | N/A | sCOvPc5J2sOacn0DYjwL7OAMzcV2 | null |
6cuPhQAeCCQ5AqWsT03d | 6NJwHudrVQQEUOl6hASGpT1j6Pn2 | MarcusWilhelm | Marcus Wilhelm | 1,674,752,200,184 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvmmPyw7LeS_NQdprNF0igg-ij_FZKsjzJ-KQ8OZX=s96-c | 1,674,847,730,070 | Will the paper submission deadline for the 21st Symposium on Experimental Algorithms be postponed by at least one day? | will-the-paper-submission-deadline | https://manifold.markets/MarcusWilhelm/will-the-paper-submission-deadline | {
"NO": 134.56439237389594,
"YES": 41.82178902359926
} | 0.84 | 0.620013 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 70.988456 | 0 | true | YES | 1,674,847,730,070 | 0.84 | 3 | 1,674,754,281,424 | 1,674,754,280,594 | -1 | [] | Resolves true, if the paper submission deadline for SEA'23 changed from 2023-01-29 (Anywhere on Earth) to 2023-01-30 (Anywhere on Earth) or later.
I will resolve this based on the information on the website (https://www.sea2023.cs.upc.edu/92268/detail/sea-2023.html) | N/A | null | null |
mzez22q0ncJefEbc9bJU | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | IsaacKing | Isaac King | 1,669,579,008,388 | 1,704,085,200,000 | At the end of 2023, will Givewell still be the top recipient from Manifold for Charity? | at-the-end-of-2023-will-givewell-st | https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/at-the-end-of-2023-will-givewell-st | {
"NO": 18899.805615909183,
"YES": 462.1457277901755
} | 0.989595 | 0.699296 | 1,495 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 33,850.067243 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,178,065,604 | 0.99 | 95 | 1,704,178,065,867 | 1,704,085,181,562 | 1,704,178,061,363 | [
"manifold-for-charity",
"givewell",
"effective-altruism",
"whale-watching",
"new-years-resolutions-2024",
"barcalona"
] | As of market creation it's in the lead by a 4x margin over the next highest contender.
https://manifold.markets/charity | N/A | y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2 | ||
aPH4JbOwmKQOSQCEXEpO | RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2 | ShakedKoplewitz | Shaked Koplewitz | 1,675,880,985,188 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c | 1,685,989,971,433 | Will Apple announce a 15 inch MacBook air in 2023 | will-apple-announce-a-15-inch-macbo | https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/will-apple-announce-a-15-inch-macbo | {
"NO": 2925.1966763233254,
"YES": 54.18853008446639
} | 0.994841 | 0.781285 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,537.736763 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,989,971,433 | 0.99 | 11 | 1,685,987,131,434 | 1,685,986,296,323 | 1,685,987,129,090 | [] | A MacBook air with at least 15 inches qualifies (if it's say 14.9 inches but announced as 15 inch, will probably settle N/a) | N/A | null | |
7kM4rZY6tZpkFE2KvKzw | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,711,660,605,169 | 1,712,343,600,000 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher than $903.56 on April 5? | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-53ca29b5daaf | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-53ca29b5daaf | {
"NO": 128.15672821573173,
"YES": 5588.442817680657
} | 0.007686 | 0.252478 | 420 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,512.703091 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,354,745,263 | 0.01 | 19 | 1,712,343,600,000 | 1,712,342,301,589 | -1 | [
"stock-marketweekly",
"ai-stocks",
"nasdaq",
"nvda",
"stocks",
"tech-stocks",
"nvidia",
"stock-league-april",
"stocks-league-2024",
"gpu"
] | NVIDIA Corp - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 3pm ET
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $903.56
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | null |
|
bjV7ZovVtoiDVDEStAsA | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,700,334,460,859 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,700,428,245,626 | Will the Washington Commanders beat the New York Giants in their Week 11 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-washington-commanders-beat-ab4a8216aeb0 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-washington-commanders-beat-ab4a8216aeb0 | {
"NO": 19.074816774062164,
"YES": 1445.3709701488694
} | 0.007842 | 0.374586 | 267.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,414.385022 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,428,254,107 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,700,427,995,084 | 1,700,427,994,948 | -1 | [
"washington-commanders",
"football",
"nfl",
"new-york-giants",
"sports-default"
] | Yes - Commanders win
No - Giants win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | null | null |
3lOA7yt2ITAB2PRFR2Fw | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,673,058,099,356 | 1,686,110,340,000 | Will any member of the House GOP Conference invoke the motion to depose the speaker during the first 6 months of the 118th Congress? | will-any-member-of-the-house-gop-co-3e09dfd109fd | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-member-of-the-house-gop-co-3e09dfd109fd | {
"NO": 148.0159741006258,
"YES": 4025.899618803907
} | 0.010355 | 0.221547 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,657.704525 | 0 | true | NO | 1,686,421,313,883 | 0.01 | 21 | 1,686,150,539,020 | 1,686,108,405,040 | 1,686,150,536,501 | [
"118th-congress"
] | N/A | null | |||
3BwUoIHUaxg7aMUfSVnm | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,710,518,015,233 | 1,714,154,772,140 | Will "Civil War" (2024) have >82% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | will-civil-war-2024-have-82-critics | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-civil-war-2024-have-82-critics | {
"NO": 107.82855316685993,
"YES": 10669.037399720633
} | 0.01 | 0.49986 | 1,335 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 31,842.429842 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,154,772,140 | 0.01 | 116 | 1,714,154,925,364 | 1,714,154,748,792 | 1,714,154,924,725 | [
"entertainment",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720",
"rotten-tomatoes",
"culture-default",
"boxoffice",
"politics-default",
"television-film",
"movies",
"us-politics"
] | "Civil War" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/civil_war_2024
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 26th (two weeks after release).
Details:
NOTE: "Civil War" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Rotten Tomatoes score could shift quite a bit.
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).
Example: the Tomatometer for Alex Garland's earlier (masterpiece) "Ex Machina" is currently 92%.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/aDyQxtg0V2w) | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
jQfFwA7zIqucazwO61FK | 78tkxsqacrMKXWojSXaMzk3BExR2 | DanVonKohorn | Dan Von Kohorn | 1,659,311,656,171 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrrYtb1kZSj6ZuuxDC-4_u1YPxJ5jWcgTCrTgY9KOA=s96-c | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will current federal tax exempt status of churches in the United States remain in place through 2022? | will-current-federal-tax-exempt-sta | https://manifold.markets/DanVonKohorn/will-current-federal-tax-exempt-sta | {
"NO": 795.9883946053543,
"YES": 50.48476855575776
} | 0.975892 | 0.719685 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 903.587578 | 0 | true | YES | 1,672,789,548,560 | 0.98 | 19 | 1,672,546,458,729 | 1,672,546,458,621 | 1,659,410,948,591 | [
"politics-default"
] | This question will resolve to no if there are any official changes to the federal tax code that would impact in any way the federal tax exempt treatment of churches in the United States. Otherwise, it will resolve to yes.
| N/A | null | null |
bLBV1AqXpRKZg1GKOdUa | CWChdPylvrViBJ46NcIbGcK1qDa2 | NicholasKross | Nicholas Kross | 1,684,192,822,285 | 1,685,385,231,268 | Will Erdoğan win the 2023 Turkish presidential election? | will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-p-3725c1227b4a | https://manifold.markets/NicholasKross/will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-p-3725c1227b4a | {
"NO": 13022.456374874044,
"YES": 187.6267284564031
} | 0.997854 | 0.870121 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,953.344887 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,385,231,268 | 1 | 17 | 1,685,380,722,240 | 1,685,380,722,111 | 1,685,346,856,724 | [
"politics-default",
"turkey",
"europe",
"asia",
"elections-world"
] | Based on https://polymarket.com/event/will-erdogan-win-the-2023-turkish-presidential-election
Same rules as that Polymarket market, except replace "the market will resolve to 50-50" with "the market will resolve to N/A". | N/A | null | ||
xXlCKd5zsWe1ipbhTHMd | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,092,636,778 | 1,700,175,600,000 | Will XRP close higher on November 16 than it closed on November 15? | will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-b5d4bfd51253 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-b5d4bfd51253 | {
"NO": 86.72031669860664,
"YES": 1101.7090984098431
} | 0.020334 | 0.208663 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,224.508968 | 0 | true | NO | 1,700,181,719,735 | 0.02 | 9 | 1,700,181,714,385 | 1,700,174,689,566 | 1,700,181,713,636 | [
"economics-default",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD
Previous Close: $0.6484
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
ymdPJclQKxbXWeJo2OOD | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,712,624,817,193 | 1,715,531,622,977 | Will the sequel to "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire" be announced before June? | will-the-sequel-to-godzilla-x-kong | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-sequel-to-godzilla-x-kong | {
"NO": 1628.63414419898,
"YES": 14.372305062755004
} | 0.99 | 0.466283 | 180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,721.590338 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,531,622,977 | 0.99 | 8 | 1,715,531,622,977 | 1,715,531,619,583 | 1,715,374,925,398 | [
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720",
"boxoffice",
"science-fiction",
"culture-default",
"entertainment",
"movies"
] | After the shocking success of "Godzilla x Kong", most assume that a sequel is inevitable. From the Hollywood Reporter:
MonsterVerse Future Looks Bright After ‘Godzilla x Kong’
Jaws dropped at Legendary and Warner Bros. when Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire opened to $80 million in North America over Easter weekend despite getting shredded by critics...
So what next? “This is certainly an exciting result,” says Mary Parent, president of worldwide production for Josh Grode’s Legendary... “We are in a good position to continue the journey, but let’s see how Godzilla x Kong unfolds,” Parent says. “These are early days, but we are certainly feeing good.”
This market resolves YES if a sequel to "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire" is announced by the end of May, 2024.
I will use a broad definition of "sequel". I expect it should satisfy two criteria:
(1). It appears to be part of the MonsterVerse.
(2). Both Godzilla & Kong are central characters.
I won't be super literal about it—e.g. the announcement may not specify that it's part of the MonsterVerse, but from context it seems clear that Legendary is continuing the same story, and that would also count. What matters is that it features the same two monsters & is part of the same story (prequels are also fair game). | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
yzAZ4YeBTHuif5cMzBml | igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2 | Austin | Austin | 1,677,817,430,856 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c | 1,682,924,340,000 | Will Manifund announce an impact cert round with any major EA org before May? | will-manifund-announce-an-impact-ce | https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifund-announce-an-impact-ce | {
"NO": 40.663718148919216,
"YES": 1709.9484195610141
} | 0.008274 | 0.259721 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,381.714036 | 0 | true | NO | 1,683,226,255,529 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,710,208,062,635 | 1,682,915,006,665 | 1,682,015,011,105 | [
"manifund-5e8e6bc749f7"
] | Our first round in partnership with ACX is currently under way; will we announce one in conjunction with an EA org before May 2023?
Some possible contenders:
OpenPhil, eg for the AI Worldviews Contest
SFF, as they make use of weird funding experiments
LTFF or EAIF
1DaySooner
(If you or someone you know would be interested, definitely reach out!)
| N/A | null | |
FfWfiXSu50xks3Zd0Erl | 7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2 | nickten | nickten 💙💦🐬 | 1,687,550,291,345 | 1,690,826,400,000 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin still be alive and posting videos at the end of July? | will-yevgeny-prigozhin-still-be-ali | https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-yevgeny-prigozhin-still-be-ali | {
"NO": 507.10563698453115,
"YES": 6415.225261982807
} | 0.078447 | 0.518511 | 1,970 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 32,805.993924 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,837,263,459 | 0.08 | 148 | 1,693,043,382,826 | 1,690,826,364,792 | 1,693,043,379,106 | [
"ukrainerussia-war",
"ukraine",
"russia"
] | Dear Leader of PMC Wagner and Democratic People's Republic of Rostov-on-Don, will he prevail and keep shitposting on telegram?
Resolving YES if he posts at least one video message in the last week of July and is alive on July 31
*update June 25 - he has traded Wagner and Rostov for an undisclosed amount of potatoes and life in Belarus. Radio silence since.
[image] | N/A | null | null |
|
6a76k6FNq89RvOo1Cv3Z | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | MatthewBarnett | Matthew Barnett | 1,646,109,958,698 | 1,646,196,865,802 | Will Biden utter "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | will-biden-utter-taiwan-during-the | https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-biden-utter-taiwan-during-the | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.008677 | 0.008677 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,691.181065 | 0 | true | NO | 1,646,196,865,802 | 0.008677 | 12 | 1,646,109,958,698 | -1 | -1 | [
"politics-default"
] | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the word "Taiwan" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | N/A | null | null |
|
YvVbvUVGT1QoiK9dkwJO | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,696,341,261,022 | 1,696,367,519,725 | Kevin McCarthy "motion to vacate" vote - will at least ten Republicans vote against McCarthy? | kevin-mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-vot | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/kevin-mccarthy-motion-to-vacate-vot | {
"NO": 36.12748684746283,
"YES": 7123.617440879537
} | 0.000766 | 0.131324 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,930.265539 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,367,519,725 | 0 | 28 | 1,696,367,508,511 | 1,696,367,301,796 | 1,696,367,508,118 | [
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"118th-congress",
"donald-trump"
] | Matt Gaetz has filed a "motion to vacate" against the House speaker Kevin McCarthy:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/02/matt-gaetz-remove-kevin-mccarthy-speaker-government-shutdown
The vote is due to take place "within two legislative days".
Will at least ten Republicans vote against McCarthy? This does not include any Republicans abstaining, voting "present" or otherwise expressing their oppositionn to McCarthy without actually voting against him.
Related markets:
@/SimonGrayson/mccarthy-vote-will-any-democrats-vo
Resolution notes:
Any yes/no vote where House members go on the record will qualify if the purpose is to vote on whether to declare the speaker position vacant or to dismiss the attempts to remove McCarthy
If the motion to vacate is somehow decided without a yes/no vote where House members go on the record with their votes (eg. McCarthy resigns, the motion is withdrawn, there is a procedure to strike the motion down without an explicit vote, etc) this market will resolve to N/A
If there are multiple votes, this market only applies to the first formally counted vote | N/A | null | null |
|
PBtqRNrBCVvXJWyiAVPE | RtEWAzXFu6cFqseKoG587E7bXaU2 | hyperion | hyperion | 1,666,987,227,839 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will Elon Musk ask Joe Rogan to join the to the Twitter content moderation council? | will-elon-musk-ask-joe-rogan-to-joi | https://manifold.markets/hyperion/will-elon-musk-ask-joe-rogan-to-joi | {
"NO": 287.5508252289652,
"YES": 551.8893860883273
} | 0.15 | 0.253004 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 727.606705 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,155,624,703 | 0.15 | 16 | 1,705,155,624,861 | 1,698,132,967,909 | 1,681,786,357,130 | [
"technology-default",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1586059953311137792
If the council is fully formed with no reports of Rogan being asked, I will resolve to NO. | N/A | RtEWAzXFu6cFqseKoG587E7bXaU2 | ||
RuhCrO1uIyDY8uaN4aoI | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | Arch1e | Archie | 1,714,576,282,083 | 1,714,945,184,932 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris, Hamilton and Alonso all score points at the Miami GP? | 2024-formula-1-season-will-verstapp-1504470d97b3 | https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2024-formula-1-season-will-verstapp-1504470d97b3 | {
"NO": 1471.1469214994634,
"YES": 16.2854686938212
} | 0.99 | 0.522883 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,035.50115 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,945,184,932 | 0.99 | 14 | 1,714,945,184,932 | 1,714,945,117,368 | -1 | [
"formula-1",
"motorsports",
"auto-racing"
] | All the drivers listed need to score points with a top-10 finish at the Miami Grand Prix.
If there is a replacement/reserve driver in place of one of the listed drivers, and they finish in the top-10, the market will still resolve YES. However, if a car has a DNS issue, like Sainz in 2023 at Qatar, and the car simply does not start the race with any driver, the market will resolve N/A.
(This is for the main Sunday race, not the sprint) | N/A | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | null |
|
7GfbxKAYyMjZZqLkv2R5 | 9il5Z8Wrd5Y3LZvsLbQqC8Tdy1O2 | PS | PS | 1,688,809,811,535 | 1,693,519,200,000 | Will Putin visit Turkey in August 2023? | will-putin-visit-turkey-in-august-2 | https://manifold.markets/PS/will-putin-visit-turkey-in-august-2 | {
"NO": 381.99535745436305,
"YES": 18298.55196748014
} | 0.014791 | 0.418324 | 1,990 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 53,270.078404 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,545,546,242 | 0.01 | 185 | 1,693,484,960,945 | 1,693,484,960,773 | 1,693,274,966,924 | [
"russia",
"turkey",
"vladimir-putin"
] | At a press conference on July 8, Erdogan claimed Putin was coming for a visit to Turkey in August 2023. Will this visit take place as claimed? | N/A | null | null |
|
QUDK4wlidqaODd88vwNO | 4iz7kGfEvvM7DYx96m1ZmM2Zn0l1 | mikeangelo | Mike | 1,707,338,805,094 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJTYbUl2Gcx8fPztyKD3jYtiWheIZPkX_JMwiVBdywmwNw=s96-c | 1,709,701,140,000 | Will Ronna McDaniel still be the RNC chair on Super Tuesday? (March 5th) | will-ronna-mcdaniel-still-be-the-rn | https://manifold.markets/mikeangelo/will-ronna-mcdaniel-still-be-the-rn | {
"NO": 11120.320596679983,
"YES": 162.27673194491376
} | 0.996211 | 0.79324 | 690 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13,409.410491 | 0 | true | YES | 1,709,705,758,236 | 1 | 39 | 1,709,705,758,467 | 1,709,698,735,013 | 1,708,949,573,860 | [
"magaland",
"us-politics",
"donald-trump",
"politics-default"
] | N/A | 4iz7kGfEvvM7DYx96m1ZmM2Zn0l1 | ||
3SrhUHzZhxQ5vLmBaGzc | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,666,275,531,462 | 1,666,697,853,056 | Will Penny Mordaunt be the next UK Prime Minister after Liz Truss? | will-penny-mordaunt-be-the-next-uk | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-penny-mordaunt-be-the-next-uk | {
"NO": 163.97902363151297,
"YES": 22697.30254065528
} | 0.001592 | 0.180786 | 460 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,238.352525 | 0 | true | NO | 1,666,697,853,056 | 0.021016 | 19 | 1,666,697,845,398 | 1,666,697,845,249 | 1,666,697,825,459 | [
"uk-politics"
] | Liz Truss just announced her resignation. Who will be the next UK PM?
Resolves YES if Penny Mordaunt becomes the next UK Prime Minister.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/20/world/europe/replacement-liz-truss.html says that Penny Mordaunt, leader of the House of Commons, is one of the top contenders.
Grouped questions:
[markets] | N/A | null | null |
|
fj84Bc3ogP6swITdW72U | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,715,630,904,638 | 1,715,713,200,000 | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 15 than May 14? | will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-a53df6c05a32 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-a53df6c05a32 | {
"NO": 148.4650355441961,
"YES": 67.35592635225638
} | 0.687908 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 52 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,806,898,082 | 0.69 | 5 | 1,715,713,200,000 | 1,715,710,622,007 | -1 | [
"tech-stocks",
"finance",
"gpu",
"ai-stocks",
"nvidia"
] | NVIDIA Corp - Resolves to Nasdaq Historical Data
NVDA closes at 4pm ET
This market close at: 3:00pm ET on May 14
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than previous day
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
Accounts for stock splits
(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-8069aee34e5a) | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
bzcqspW853q67LPJbHlF | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,702,484,479,237 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,702,846,635,515 | Will the New England Patriots beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 15 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-new-england-patriots-beat-8d98cd62442e | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-new-england-patriots-beat-8d98cd62442e | {
"NO": 103.29619015722295,
"YES": 3504.4776478273993
} | 0.01 | 0.255227 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,408.407858 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,846,692,489 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,702,846,257,561 | 1,702,846,257,444 | -1 | [
"new-england-patriots",
"sports-default",
"nfl",
"football",
"kansas-city-chiefs"
] | Yes - Patriots win
No - Chiefs win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | null |
EGzHgEVjvrUNHdjAC09N | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | mattyb | Matty B | 1,704,711,046,869 | 1,705,374,227,086 | Will Steven Yuen and Ali Wong both win 2023 Primetime Acting Emmys? | will-steven-yuen-and-ali-wong-both | https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-steven-yuen-and-ali-wong-both | {
"NO": 5434.81761308881,
"YES": 12.717989447312675
} | 0.997766 | 0.511084 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,415.303917 | 0 | true | YES | 1,705,374,227,086 | 1 | 12 | 1,710,207,073,403 | 1,705,374,221,561 | 1,705,374,243,524 | [
"entertainment",
"television-film",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720",
"hollywood",
"tv",
"netflix",
"awards-shows",
"emmys-2023"
] | For this to Resolve YES, Steven Yuen must win Outstanding Lead Actor (Limited Series) and Ali Wong must win Outstanding Lead Actress (Limited Series).
You can see the full list of Primetime Emmy nominations here. | N/A | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||
o8gXNepIaV9vpuXCTYMK | nVtskBWA9Jc1upjDci2SsUpVxgC3 | herrweber | Harry | 1,697,568,650,749 | 1,697,649,777,470 | Will the next Speaker of the House be elected on the second ballot? | will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-0d5241b3c8c5 | https://manifold.markets/herrweber/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-0d5241b3c8c5 | {
"NO": 219.10008914292695,
"YES": 528.460589441719
} | 0.061657 | 0.136804 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 668.11769 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,649,777,470 | 0.06 | 14 | 1,697,646,643,759 | 1,697,646,643,635 | -1 | [
"speaker-of-the-house-election",
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"118th-congress"
] | Jordan just failed in the first round. What will happen next? | N/A | null | null |
|
X776YcJRZZVLdy467VXD | ruICuyLDhbhsg2p1MJI23aVqDrL2 | AnthonyPeterson | Anthony Peterson | 1,644,954,752,954 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6Se3lLl7KLNeb0yooHgjcUR78bSawSCd2SznS=s96-c | 1,645,034,341,718 | Is Microsoft Office 2019 is the last OEM / Perpetual version of Office? | is-microsoft-office-2019-is-the-las | https://manifold.markets/AnthonyPeterson/is-microsoft-office-2019-is-the-las | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.835837 | 0.835837 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 199 | 0 | true | NO | 1,645,034,341,718 | 0.835837 | 3 | 1,644,954,752,954 | -1 | 1,644,971,785,479 | [
"technology-default"
] | Usually Office perpetual versions have been updated every 3 years, but if we don't see Office 2022 this year, it would seem they have gone from strongly encouraging Office 365, to not supporting Perpetual at all. | N/A | null | null |
GISZkSXhhodXwIuYUzE6 | rpPhNvA397UkhNUQsVFMQEKRtyV2 | RLMgold | Robert McIntyre | 1,645,051,785,496 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgR1zo00WvcSPmsrxKW9c-ekFTEYJFpwd1r7TrV=s96-c | 1,645,257,540,000 | SciPapers : Generational inheritance of memory in an animal model. | scipapers-generational-inheritance | https://manifold.markets/RLMgold/scipapers-generational-inheritance | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.300518 | 0.300518 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,409.58703 | 0 | true | NO | 1,645,263,849,384 | 0.300518 | 10 | 1,645,051,785,496 | -1 | 1,645,243,698,523 | [] | I'm experimenting with using prediction markets to find interesting new knowledge, or (conversely) to show that some kind of knowledge is difficult to find. Market resolves to YES if we find the knowledge I seek, NO otherwise. Note: I will ONLY consider papers mentioned in the comments as eligible for the purposes of this question!
Still experimenting with the precise format, but here's my first shot.
Summary Description:
I'm looking for a paper that shows convincing evidence that a long-term memory can be inherited across four generations (parent to great-grandchild). That is, a certain animal learns a long-term memory of some kind, and then its great-grandchildren also have that memory even without experiencing the training that their ancestors went through. I want something that in my judgment is a "real" long-term memory (and not a kind of injury), and it want it to persist even if there's no way for the parents to communicate with their offspring.
Examples:
(note, a HIT here means that if you found a paper that shows this example, then it would cause the market to resolve to YES. A NEAR MISS means that if you found a paper with this example it would not, in my judgment, cause the market to resolve to YES, but only because it's missing a SINGLE salient aspect. If it had that aspect, then the market would resolve to YES).
NEAR MISS #1 ("famine"): A hypothetical paper notes that, If you expose a certain animal to famine, then its children will have epigenetic modifications that enable them to better survive famine, and tend more towards males. These changes persist for four generations even if the subsequent generations are not exposed to famine. This is a NEAR MISS because I don't consider it a "real" memory, but rather a type of injury. I consider the "training" in this case to be too limited, in that you can only choose "famine" or "not famine". If instead there were 20 different types of famine you could expose the animal to, and they each caused different changes in behavior, and these changes persisted over several generations in the absence of that famine, then I would instead consider this a HIT.
NEAR MISS #2 ("genetic mods"): A hypothetical paper states that you can modify DNA of an animal as an embryo, and induce a vast amount of heritable mental effects such as being more fearful in general, or avoiding a certain smell, or whatever. Although technically this "training" gets around the "famine" example, I still consider it a NEAR MISS because I feel that directly editing DNA is cheating. I want the memories to be possible to acquire, in principal, through direct sensory experience. If instead the paper showed that if you show the animal a picture that causes it to edit its OWN DNA, and that causes a change in behavior that lasts generations, then this would instead be a HIT.
NEAR MISS #3 ("teaching"): You point out that human children tend to speak the same language as their parents. This is a MISS because the parents are able to communicate with their children and teach them the language. I want a memory that still survives even without a direct line of communication between parent and child. If it was instead generally the case that children could start speaking their great-grandfather's language at age 13, even if up to then they had never heard a word of the language or seen their biological great-grandfather, then this example would be a HIT.
NEAR MISS #4 ("generational depth"): This paper: "Parental olfactory experience influences behavior and neural structure in subsequent generations", https://www.nature.com/articles/nn.3594 is close, but only shows learning from parents to grandchildren, not parents to great-grandchildren.
NEAR MISS #5 ("not behavioral"): This paper, "Transgenerational transmission of environmental information in C. elegans", https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aah6412 , shows that you can make transgenic worms that have two "glowy" states, "dim" and "bright", and that you can make them switch from "dim" to "bright" by changing the temperature, and that this change will last over 14 generations. I don't consider this a "hit" because the behavior of the worms doesn't change depending on whether they are "dim" or "bright". Also, it additionally fails as in the "famine" case, because "dim" and "bright" are the only two options. If instead there were 20 different "brightness" options and they each led to different behaviors, then this would be a HIT.
HIT #1: You find a paper with the following: Researchers trained three successive generations of rats to associate a particular room with foot shocks. Then the researchers separated the next litter of rats from their parents and for two generations did not train with foot shocks. Then the third generation of rats still exhibited freezing (a fear response) when placed in the same room their great-grandparents were in.
HIT #2: You find a paper w/ the following: Researchers trained mice to solve a certain maze. Then they raised three generations of those mice without any maze training. Nevertheless, the great-grandchildren of the maze-trained mice were able to solve the same maze much faster than control mice.
HIT #3: A crow learns, with some effort, how to eat a certain nut efficiently. It's eggs are raised by a different naive crow, and the resulting children and their children never see that nut in their lives. Nevertheless, the third generation of crows are able to eat the nut with similar skill as their great grandparent, without any initial effort to learn how to eat the nut.
HIT #4: Same as HIT #3 but the crow learns that eating the nut makes it sick and will avoid nuts that look like it from then on. It's great grandchildren still avoid the nut the first time they see it even if they've never before experienced the nut, and even though naive crows DO attempt to eat the nut.
----------------------------------------------------
How this Market Works:
1. If you know of a paper that meets my criteria, bet what you will and reference the paper in the comments. I'll check it out and include it in my market decision. You would presumably buy YES along with listing the paper.
2. If you think a paper that's already been listed clearly meets my criteria, you can do your own analysis of that paper and make your case in the comments along with buying YES. This helps me judge the paper and provide a fairer and faster market.
3. Even if you don't have a paper you can of course buy YES/NO based on whether or not you think the paper both EXISTS and that the community can FIND it in the allotted time.
4. If you have a paper that clearly shows that this type of thing is impossible, link that along with presumably buying NO.
Note: this is the first such question and I'm using it to calibrate and as a test. Full disclosure: for this market I already know a paper that DOES meet my criteria. If at the end of this market, no one has found a suitable paper, I promise not to swoop in and link to the paper that I already know would win. Of course, if anyone finds the exact paper I'm thinking of they will automatically win. It's my hope that you guys find something NEW that I don't know about. If no one finds anything worthwhile then I will have to resolve NO. Note again, I will ONLY CONSIDER PAPERS MENTIONED IN THE COMMENTS WHEN DECIDING THE RESOLUTION OF THIS MARKET. | N/A | null | null |
hTvbn8BoURlXrsaVvLBt | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | VivaLaPanda | VivaLaPanda | 1,667,511,358,548 | 1,669,983,918,805 | Will it be possible to rent on-demand RTX 3090 instances for <$.30/hr by February 2023 | what-it-be-possible-to-rent-ondeman | https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/what-it-be-possible-to-rent-ondeman | {
"NO": 800.4696211031369,
"YES": 152.1895319347342
} | 0.966273 | 0.84489 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,509.493836 | 0 | true | YES | 1,669,983,918,805 | 0.966273 | 13 | 1,669,979,013,005 | 1,669,979,011,691 | 1,667,511,405,968 | [
"technology-default"
] | Question resolves to YES iff the cloud provider in question is offering this price for instances with a reliability over 95%, and the price is available for at least one full day.
Spot instances don't count
Current places I'm looking (but other hosts also count)
https://www.runpod.io/console/gpu-cloud
https://vast.ai/console/create/
Nov 3, 2:39pm: What it be possible to rent on-demand RTX 3090 instances for <$.30/hr by February 2023 → Will it be possible to rent on-demand RTX 3090 instances for <$.30/hr by February 2023 | N/A | null | ||
aFexO7bR038XmtjGjxwd | DAyliplpK4YgjjscpqUFbU8VTE52 | cverhiser | Zucchini | 1,674,442,905,633 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0FzmnecSCGjx9_6z_y12a5x63xe4w_vgxfgkoJfg=s96-c | 1,675,022,400,000 | Will the eagles defeat the 49ers in the NFC conference championship 2023? | will-the-eagles-defeat-the-49ers-in | https://manifold.markets/cverhiser/will-the-eagles-defeat-the-49ers-in | {
"NO": 191.9600193127103,
"YES": 186.87285072019537
} | 0.583819 | 0.577279 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 294.426448 | 0 | true | YES | 1,675,035,164,740 | 0.58 | 9 | 1,675,020,493,267 | 1,675,020,493,065 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football"
] |
Close date updated to 2023-01-30 10:00 pm
Close date updated to 2023-01-29 3:00 pm | N/A | null | |
3LdqHc3KEzmNkjTn2BlU | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,677,994,349,837 | 1,694,926,629,314 | Will Valentina Shevchenko win the rematch with Alexa Grasso? | will-valentina-shevchenko-win-the-r | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-valentina-shevchenko-win-the-r | {
"NO": 0.468215355293068,
"YES": 61048.90740191759
} | 0.00001 | 0.555906 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 62,401.611429 | 0 | true | NO | 1,694,926,629,314 | 0 | 20 | 1,694,926,605,155 | 1,694,926,604,876 | 1,694,367,957,429 | [
"mma",
"mma-mixed-martial-arts",
"sports-default",
"ufc"
] | Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso are scheduled to fight again on September 16th, 2023 at a UFC event in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If Valentina Shevchenko wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Alexa Grasso wins or it is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | ||
9I2qhGa67ClhdY3awt0X | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,676,198,437,208 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,677,625,140,000 | February 2023: Will President Biden talk about UFOs? | february-2023-will-president-biden | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/february-2023-will-president-biden | {
"NO": 250.5326377510073,
"YES": 798.2761361678542
} | 0.198158 | 0.440537 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,343.629423 | 0 | true | NO | 1,678,059,789,405 | 0.2 | 22 | 1,678,085,945,003 | 1,677,623,504,916 | 1,678,085,944,107 | [] | This market will resolve to YES, if in February 2023 President Biden mentions:
"UFO",
"UAP",
"unidentified flying object",
"unidentified aerial phenomenon", or
"aliens",
in one of his official statements (press conference, event remarks etc.) as transcribed at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/.
[image] | N/A | null | |
2RMXBOYhapXYAlilHnOr | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,708,424,625,620 | 1,708,577,400,000 | Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-02-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-571f4aa82a9d | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-571f4aa82a9d | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.117647 | 0.117647 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,635,041,587 | 0.12 | 0 | 1,708,635,041,868 | 1,708,424,631,467 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-22 04:50 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-22 - 06:50 (UTC)
22:50 (Los Angeles)
01:50 (New York)
07:50 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 02:10
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
iTQOjdEynLd2qR6rCSA5 | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | Ernie | Ernie | 1,695,325,765,440 | 1,695,873,426,145 | Will someone from each of the 6 major continents of the world attend Manifest 2023? | will-someone-from-each-of-the-6-maj | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-someone-from-each-of-the-6-maj | {
"NO": 93.35297811556836,
"YES": 1782.4982385387416
} | 0.019182 | 0.271898 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,572.315852 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,873,426,145 | 0.02 | 12 | 1,695,801,877,381 | 1,695,801,877,099 | 1,695,353,672,563 | [
"manifest",
"dating"
] | Please post info on it, yourself or others.
It should be someone who literally traveled to manifest from that continent.
Excluding Antarctica | N/A | null | null |
|
bDsMR65eP4fJ3hXyyCNT | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,703,412,120,836 | 1,703,633,400,000 | Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-27 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-820d3f8c76af | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-820d3f8c76af | {
"NO": 75.79319949214647,
"YES": 30.774877150599703
} | 0.27 | 0.13057 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,762,720,934 | 0.27 | 2 | 1,703,762,721,283 | 1,703,623,357,964 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-26 23:30 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-27 - 01:30 (UTC)
17:30 (Los Angeles)
20:30 (New York)
02:30 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 07:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
VzmVy4LgCA5hvsJhpSPC | dUYoMgTwWINBwgj7HtTJbHdz4Bz1 | AlexbGoode | Alex B. Goode | 1,683,121,527,477 | 1,695,633,537,202 | Will NeurIPS have an acceptance rate of at least 25% in 2023? | will-neurips-have-an-acceptance-rat | https://manifold.markets/AlexbGoode/will-neurips-have-an-acceptance-rat | {
"NO": 953.3318156129477,
"YES": 69.90296850237036
} | 0.95 | 0.582145 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,491.395945 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,633,537,202 | 0.95 | 11 | 1,695,650,017,540 | 1,695,633,390,962 | 1,695,650,015,591 | [
"science-default",
"ai",
"machine-learning"
] | The Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) is one of the major machine learning conferences.
In 2021 it increased its acceptance rate to from 20% to 25%.
[image](https://github.com/lixin4ever/Conference-Acceptance-Rate)
This market resolves YES of the acceptance rate for 2023 is at least 25%. | N/A | null | ||
fz5zBN0mkn0jup9jMBKi | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,702,935,587,523 | 1,703,199,600,000 | Will BNB close higher on December 21 than it closed on December 20? | will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-4562303e8b19 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2-4562303e8b19 | {
"NO": 1090.2413046096938,
"YES": 110.3913717660246
} | 0.99 | 0.90929 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,060.593268 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,223,751,670 | 0.99 | 10 | 1,703,223,746,103 | 1,703,182,153,488 | 1,703,223,745,420 | [
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$ | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
TtQw08bJsx1Bpr4zXizi | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,704,396,072,433 | 1,704,610,800,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-07 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-8f6e32a6cf03 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-8f6e32a6cf03 | {
"NO": 86.00229413846664,
"YES": 110.00000000000001
} | 0.144453 | 0.177602 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,656,680,244 | 0.14 | 3 | 1,704,656,680,474 | 1,704,555,485,046 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-07 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
SEyX2BqJv1QMyCJkj8H5 | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | Arch1e | Archie | 1,700,757,778,148 | 1,711,258,454,810 | [2024 Formula 1 Season] Will either Ferrari driver win a race? | 2024-formula-1-season-will-either-f | https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2024-formula-1-season-will-either-f | {
"NO": 309.94199877101255,
"YES": 106.15358368947632
} | 0.889011 | 0.732859 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 273.805387 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,258,454,810 | 0.89 | 7 | 1,711,258,454,810 | 1,711,254,333,534 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"formula-1",
"motorsports"
] | [THIS IS FOR THE 2024 SEASON]
Resolves YES if either Ferrari driver (Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc, or a reserve/replacement driver) wins a race with Ferrari, not including sprints.
This includes victories from promotions due to penalties. For example if Max Verstappen won a race, but was disqualified or otherwise penalised down the finishing order, so that a Ferrari driver is promoted to 1st, the market would resolve YES. | N/A | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | ||
n2I3DjQJjLnICZyKMiy5 | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,705,150,967,947 | 1,705,215,600,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-d10b1dc13da3 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-d10b1dc13da3 | {
"NO": 75.07645864937739,
"YES": 48.59739199102279
} | 0.25 | 0.177475 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,230,992,866 | 0.25 | 2 | 1,705,230,993,075 | 1,705,160,094,079 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-14 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
BdzhpgYxaNrFuWovTGzq | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,688,916,897,733 | 1,704,093,674,533 | Will Manifold increase the unique trader bonuses on binary markets in 2023? | will-manifold-increase-the-unique-t-ad6f6c2b0d0c | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-manifold-increase-the-unique-t-ad6f6c2b0d0c | {
"NO": 150.59340236798926,
"YES": 15167.247359214627
} | 0.002762 | 0.218106 | 470 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 18,339.05096 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,093,674,533 | 0 | 25 | 1,704,093,675,422 | 1,704,093,502,638 | 1,703,992,998,033 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | At the time of creating this market contract,
YES/NO markets provide a bonus to the creator of 5 mana per unique trader (along with adding subsidy to the market)
Will this amount increase in 2023? | N/A | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | null |
|
sWF1sPevitxVmUWPOYql | fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2 | LarsDoucet | Lars Doucet | 1,640,806,342,983 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c | 1,672,531,200,000 | Will Congress hold any hearings about Roblox in 2022? | will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo-e21f987033b3 | https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-congress-hold-any-hearings-abo-e21f987033b3 | {
"NO": 194.76562969272493,
"YES": 748.6154169312947
} | 0.075194 | 0.238108 | 301.152246 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,233.088011 | 0 | true | NO | 1,672,977,419,860 | 0.08 | 38 | 1,670,531,213,825 | 1,670,531,213,695 | -1 | [
"politics-default",
"economics-default",
"roblox"
] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM CT, either the House of Representatives or the Senate of the United States of America convenes at least one public hearing in which one or more Representatives or Senators utters the word "Roblox."
#Roblox
#Gaming
#USCongress
#Politics
#USA | N/A | null | null |
Zox4dPdZSSY4Z98LpSQo | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | NGK | NGK | 1,705,710,541,794 | 1,710,449,217,307 | Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by May AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer? | will-spacex-launch-ift3-in-may-and | https://manifold.markets/NGK/will-spacex-launch-ift3-in-may-and | {
"NO": 91.31260302424653,
"YES": 5802.713819225468
} | 0.004814 | 0.235117 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,520.322098 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,449,217,307 | 0 | 13 | 1,710,449,218,005 | 1,710,428,158,907 | 1,708,212,463,137 | [
"spacex",
"space",
"rockets"
] | Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by May and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622
Therefore the resolution options are:
Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer
Navigation:
Market ending February
Market ending March
Market ending April
[YOU ARE HERE]
Market ending June
Market ending July
Market ending August
Market ending September
Market ending October
Market ending November
Market ending December | N/A | HnyzqGs3sdhBeabLBhGhPgP4i3y2 | ||
Yb0XC5p7JPHaborxbykD | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | Eliza | Eliza | 1,694,189,853,799 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 1,694,360,154,464 | Will Stage 15 of the 2023 Vuelta a Espana be won by a breakaway? | will-stage-15-of-the-2023-vuelta-a | https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-stage-15-of-the-2023-vuelta-a | {
"NO": 4118.085563411374,
"YES": 26.205999514667838
} | 0.997436 | 0.712251 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,414.285538 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,360,172,204 | 1 | 7 | 1,694,360,150,906 | 1,694,360,150,760 | -1 | [
"spain",
"vuelta-a-espana",
"peloton-discord",
"road-bicycle-racing",
"sports-default"
] | It is impossible to define what it means to be a breakaway for the purposes of this question so I am probably going to resolve with the market consensus, as long as it also agrees with my personal best judgement. | N/A | null | null |
35G73s5DT2sR7qC3ZJNU | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,191,327,267 | 1,701,273,600,000 | Will Siemens close higher november 29th than the close of november 28th? (Daily Market) | will-siemens-close-higher-november-04b9553b0721 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-november-04b9553b0721 | {
"NO": 1861.0835257074762,
"YES": 98.57112027203073
} | 0.98616 | 0.790527 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,926.842416 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,277,933,334 | 0.99 | 10 | 1,710,222,334,277 | 1,701,271,727,310 | 1,701,277,928,757 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
jT2Wh8GKN2eBUP6lJzRj | vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1 | AVS | AVS | 1,684,575,622,427 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c | 1,688,158,740,000 | Will more than 200 rockets, mortars, and missiles be fired at Israel between 2023-05-20 and 2023-06-30? | will-more-than-200-rockets-mortars | https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-more-than-200-rockets-mortars | {
"NO": 62.85203886216545,
"YES": 1979.0715330108806
} | 0.014638 | 0.31869 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,993.835394 | 0 | true | NO | 1,688,160,635,598 | 0.01 | 13 | 1,688,143,045,973 | 1,688,143,045,857 | -1 | [
"israel",
"israeli-politics",
"arabisraeli-conflict"
] | Main source for market resolution:
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel
Resolution criteria
I will use the number given by the source. If the source is unavailable at the market close, I will find another one.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
See also:
[markets] | N/A | null | |
8yvz5LdHA2kgPi2h7ll2 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,711,313,450,050 | 1,712,931,582,246 | Will GODZILLA X KONG (2024) have a higher Letterboxd average rating than GODZILLA VS KONG? (>2.8) | will-godzilla-x-kong-2024-have-a-hi-68145db2be37 | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-godzilla-x-kong-2024-have-a-hi-68145db2be37 | {
"NO": 5.105071472344207,
"YES": 15560.771965930553
} | 0.000289 | 0.468733 | 220 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15,711.056573 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,931,582,246 | 0 | 10 | 1,712,931,629,894 | 1,712,931,569,996 | 1,712,931,628,466 | [
"movies",
"entertainment",
"boxoffice",
"hollywood",
"culture-default",
"media-rating-futures",
"television-film"
] | "Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire" Letterboxd page: https://letterboxd.com/film/godzilla-x-kong-the-new-empire/
At the time of question creation, the rating for "Godzilla vs Kong" (2021) is 2.8.
Thus, this market resolves YES if the average Letterboxd user rating for "Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire" is >2.8, when I check two weeks after release (i.e. April 12th).
Details
I will use the precision displayed by Letterboxd (i.e. a single decimal). Ties (i.e. exactly 2.8) resolve NO.
For simplicity/clarity, I'll stick with the GvK rating at the time of question creation (i.e. 2.8) even if for some reason it changes.
For further reference, here are the Letterboxd ratings for other relevant movies:
"Godzilla" (2014): 3.0
"Kong: Skull Island" (2017): 3.1
"Godzilla: King of Monsters" (2019): 2.8
For more GODZILLA X KONG markets, check out my MEGA-DASHBOARD | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
fsQWYOrvTkLibgAKjsSa | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,680,385,135,119 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,685,617,558,765 | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of May? | will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-by-0848d7a16d07 | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-by-0848d7a16d07 | {
"NO": 152092.59970010683,
"YES": 279.804336407542
} | 0.999323 | 0.730815 | 1,770 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 195,433.42705 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,617,558,765 | 1 | 93 | 1,710,456,589,586 | 1,685,617,554,592 | 1,685,514,320,441 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"world-default",
"death-markets",
"jimmy-carter"
] | (https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163392887/biden-jimmy-carter-eulogy) | N/A | null | |
mMjgh04EuYVxzy7BD4oL | OcQJOdj0RPRna74hkfLfB6QL2dC2 | CDBiddulph | Caleb Biddulph | 1,700,378,214,660 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJfnooldvqsfyLB7ZRjdJceJURCVsUcLn8Ir7VvJneRY2A=s96-c | 1,702,056,950,614 | Did Sam Altman literally lie to the OpenAI board? | did-sam-altman-literally-lie-to-the | https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/did-sam-altman-literally-lie-to-the | {
"NO": 305.2998351019832,
"YES": 115.403931442419
} | 0.652404 | 0.415025 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 265.199366 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,056,950,614 | 0.65 | 10 | 1,702,056,936,362 | 1,701,971,934,470 | 1,702,056,935,803 | [
"sam-altman",
"ai",
"openai"
] | OpenAI's announcement of Sam's termination stated that the board had "concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities." It's unclear whether the board is claiming that Sam merely failed to inform them of important information, or whether (more seriously) he knowingly lied to the board.
This market resolves YES if by end of March 2024, either 1) conclusive proof comes out that Sam lied to the board, or 2) a current member of the OpenAI board or OpenAI itself claims that Sam lied in this way, and Sam does not publicly refute the claim within 3 days (i.e. Sam either claims that he didn't tell the lie or claims to have instead made a different statement that doesn't qualify as a lie).
A qualifying lie is a statement which
Sam knew to be false at the time he said it
Was made to least one member of the OpenAI board
Contributed to the board's decision to fire Sam
States an objective claim, rather than an opinion, subjective impression, or mental state
The board conclusively knew to be false at the time they fired Sam
Statements which could qualify as lies:
"GPT-5 hasn't been able to hack out of its virtual machine in evals."
"We spent $20 million on marketing this quarter" (when it was objectively over $30 million)
Sam signed, approved, or promised to uphold an agreement which he then willingly broke, e.g. he used compute reserved for the Superalignment team.
Statements which would not qualify as lies:
"GPT-5 is already better than humans at creative writing." (The definition of "better" is unclear)
"I believe we have the capacity to accommodate all new ChatGPT Plus signups post-DevDay." (About Sam's beliefs/mental state)
"I care about AI safety as much as anyone here." (Mental state again)
Sam tells the board what he'll be presenting at DevDay, but conspicuously fails to mention some parts. (Lies by omission don't count)
A description of the lie along with a source must be posted in the comments by market close. If there is no qualifying lie by then, the market resolves NO. | N/A | null | null |
7xNTaTbxy5Mb6CK9cfYU | Xq7O5e6LEwcFPJQckXw6uy4nflf1 | 8 | Trong ♠︎ | 1,676,336,667,768 | 1,676,410,427,939 | Will AAPL close at above or below $153.85 on February 14, 2023? | will-aapl-close-at-above-or-below-1 | https://manifold.markets/8/will-aapl-close-at-above-or-below-1 | {
"NO": 38.64981969508042,
"YES": 1530.6897271549874
} | 0.018575 | 0.428435 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,556.882461 | 0 | true | NO | 1,676,410,427,939 | 0.02 | 12 | 1,676,409,590,351 | 1,676,409,589,890 | 1,676,408,546,685 | [
"wall-street-bets"
] | Yes: Above
No: Below
Resolves according to Google's market summary. In the unlikely case that it stays the same, resolves N/A. Closes at 7:59 EST. | N/A | null | ||
xkZeLKuIa4Y8kKMCZlpO | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | Mad | Madge | 1,691,487,852,778 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte8_eF79qvYqWfwsUrbabHSKNfFlLcBDrV4NU24H1KAMmev=s96-c | 1,704,038,460,000 | Will more people die on Western Australian roads in 2023 than 2022? | will-more-people-die-on-western-aus | https://manifold.markets/Mad/will-more-people-die-on-western-aus | {
"NO": 42.95494901852406,
"YES": 1577.1294095811272
} | 0.018863 | 0.413794 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,688.201324 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,264,056,589 | 0.02 | 13 | 1,704,264,056,853 | 1,702,558,265,002 | 1,704,264,044,825 | [
"science-default",
"world-default",
"australia",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Source: https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/road-safety-commission/road-fatalities-year-date or similar. As a result, only deaths considered by the government as road deaths will be counted.
If it's equal, will resolve to no.
May not resolve until the end of February as deaths within 30 days qualify. (I will only delay resolution if the numbers are very close together)
May not resolve to yes immediately upon the number exceeding the previous year's total as sometimes deaths are reclassified later (as certain types of deaths on the road aren't included in the official statistics). Again, if the numbers aren't close together, then it will resolve appropriately.
[link preview] | N/A | VkyRaWYyvkY3DhipDo1ZQBmrXr63 | null |
KF0nVdHFEx9bBOasrDQU | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,695,035,631,162 | 1,695,218,400,000 | Will LX flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-09-20 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-e78701c2dfdf | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-e78701c2dfdf | {
"NO": 234.50174949373928,
"YES": 406.9762911819199
} | 0.842827 | 0.902973 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 267.169397 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,247,451,558 | 0.84 | 8 | 1,695,217,624,816 | 1,695,217,624,536 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/bwwx2ajw | N/A | null | null |
|
Uf7GSrk8XEmse9qQLumm | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,577,821,756 | 1,684,709,890,162 | Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any Disney remake film by 2024? | will-the-super-mario-bros-movie-gro-b1c7f4e3378e | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-super-mario-bros-movie-gro-b1c7f4e3378e | {
"NO": 10440,
"YES": 16.946514730387207
} | 0.999514 | 0.769447 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,350 | 0 | true | YES | 1,684,709,890,162 | 1 | 3 | 1,684,709,876,584 | 1,684,709,875,360 | -1 | [
"the-super-mario-bros-movie",
"mario",
"nintendo",
"disney"
] | The highest grossing Disney remake film so far domestically is 'The Lion King' (2019), which took in $543,638,043 at the box-office. Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' beat that number?
The “Domestic Daily” tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the "To Date" column.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/
If any finalized numbers in the "To Date" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $543,638,043, this market will resolve to "YES"
This market will resolve to "NO" if once the December 31, 2023 "To Date" number is finalized it hasn't reached $543,638,043, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point. | N/A | null | ||
Z0K007d4rEzQcMyDWQQ9 | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | Simon74fe | Simon | 1,691,776,394,990 | 1,712,008,740,000 | Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg schedule a fight by April 1, 2024? | will-elon-musk-and-mark-zuckerberg-0d739aa01809 | https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-elon-musk-and-mark-zuckerberg-0d739aa01809 | {
"NO": 191.89398410554878,
"YES": 21381.981439982308
} | 0.002572 | 0.223204 | 970 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 25,119.071366 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,030,535,093 | 0 | 42 | 1,712,031,131,699 | 1,712,008,075,348 | 1,712,031,125,918 | [
"world-default",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"mma",
"polymarket",
"muskzuck-mma-fight",
"mark-zuckerberg"
] | Specific date motivated by this market on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/musk-vs-zuck-apr-1, which resolves 50-50 if no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024.
If no fight is scheduled by April 1, 2024, this Question resolves NO.
If the fights happens before April 1, 2024, or the market on Polymarket stays open for longer than April 1 because a fight is scheduled for a later date, this Question resolves YES. | N/A | 85nJB0gHwPMXmUtBO72YrwlNDI22 | null |
|
ZHth2xUZIGGx53gS7XDC | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,674,326,349,354 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will a discharge petition succeed in the House in 2023? | will-a-discharge-petition-succeed-i | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-discharge-petition-succeed-i | {
"NO": 185.71342513757452,
"YES": 561.0871662668562
} | 0.053264 | 0.145284 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,903.257585 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,136,468,247 | 0.05 | 14 | 1,704,136,468,543 | 1,704,063,747,440 | 1,683,170,939,817 | [
"us-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves YES if in 2023, a discharge petition is filed in the US House and reaches enough signatures (218) to bring a bill to the House floor. Otherwise NO. | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | ||
GkM9FIlqKpsRmFpnfhuE | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,683,142,309,742 | 1,685,336,489,446 | Will 'Asteroid City', directed by Wes Anderson, win the Palme d'Or at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival? | will-asteroid-city-directed-by-wes | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-asteroid-city-directed-by-wes | {
"NO": 41.31372875749071,
"YES": 24359.430394315496
} | 0.000597 | 0.260598 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 24,545.697024 | 0 | true | NO | 1,685,336,489,446 | 0 | 13 | 1,685,336,475,644 | 1,685,336,475,457 | 1,685,334,062,461 | [
"movies",
"film-festivals"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_City
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cannes_Film_Festival | N/A | null | ||
wRccEFgSxcBZgWjseZXp | lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33 | brp | Bjorn | 1,673,076,415,850 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c | 1,684,419,874,979 | Will Joe Biden visit Japan in 2023? | will-joe-biden-visit-japan-in-2023 | https://manifold.markets/brp/will-joe-biden-visit-japan-in-2023 | {
"NO": 818.980514950584,
"YES": 47.31514816549509
} | 0.9659 | 0.620704 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 816.880187 | 0 | true | YES | 1,684,419,874,979 | 0.97 | 6 | 1,684,407,757,759 | 1,684,407,728,869 | 1,684,407,755,721 | [
"us-politics"
] | N/A | null | ||
6HuNHGz1H3Geqo0kswKD | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | Panfilo | Panfilo | 1,711,076,866,489 | 1,717,268,769,538 | Will NYAG Letitia James start selling Trump assets by June 1, 2024 to satisfy the $454 million civil fraud judgment? | will-nyag-letitia-james-start-selli-f2703822b87c | https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-nyag-letitia-james-start-selli-f2703822b87c | {
"NO": 268.20341834738065,
"YES": 6955.835765312133
} | 0.024872 | 0.398139 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,174.156515 | 0 | true | NO | 1,717,268,769,538 | 0.02 | 16 | 1,717,268,769,538 | 1,717,255,439,369 | -1 | [
"us-politics",
"crime",
"trump-indictments",
"new-york",
"politics-default",
"donald-trump"
] | As in the original market, commencing foreclosure processes is sufficient for Yes.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Bruce54df/will-nyag-letitia-james-start-selli) | N/A | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | null |
|
gj24eRdHXCfuPgFW255o | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,641,136,323,537 | 1,651,095,894,963 | Will most of the US population have gotten Covid by the end of 2022? | will-most-of-the-us-population-have | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-most-of-the-us-population-have | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.845656 | 0.845656 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 851.574483 | 0 | true | YES | 1,651,095,894,963 | 0.845656 | 12 | 1,641,136,323,537 | -1 | 1,651,095,869,724 | [] | Resolves yes if >50% of the US population are estimated to have had an infection with Covid according to seroprevalence data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#national-lab. (For reference, the current estimate is 31% for October 2021.) This will resolve a few months into 2023 when the data for December 2022 is available. | N/A | null | null |
|
qIdwY91tPMonPLZ1eWIK | VB1PI3BbSTU7qBAdn6QlNahGDFq1 | yk | yk | 1,700,590,563,477 | 1,700,635,380,507 | Will CZ(Binance) plead guilty in this November? | will-cz-plead-guilty-in-this-novemb | https://manifold.markets/yk/will-cz-plead-guilty-in-this-novemb | {
"NO": 475.2459072132736,
"YES": 115.15044013032377
} | 0.97098 | 0.890194 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 810.359615 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,635,380,507 | 0.97 | 6 | 1,700,635,372,327 | 1,700,632,552,259 | 1,700,635,367,183 | [
"cz",
"binance"
] | https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-step-down-plead-guilty-01f72a40
Will he actually plead guilty? | N/A | null | null |
|
jxoitaviG284EE2IbuZ4 | pZPQQCkmuIQYEJPGYP0isOR4hFk1 | Pepe | Pepe | 1,667,612,584,105 | 1,703,912,400,000 | On December 31, 2023, will the total wealth of Russian billionaires in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index exceed $230 billion? | on-december-31-2023-will-the-total | https://manifold.markets/Pepe/on-december-31-2023-will-the-total | {
"NO": 1635.0196078431377,
"YES": 166.39973456973516
} | 0.945722 | 0.639413 | 430 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,207 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,001,107,084 | 0.95 | 10 | 1,704,001,107,339 | 1,703,356,050,322 | 1,667,612,658,690 | [
"russia",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | At the beginning of August 2022, the total wealth of Russian billionaires in the Bloomberg ranking was $311.65 billion. By mid October 2022, it had shrunk to $259.73 billion.
Resolution
The question will be judged according to the following method:
View the Bloomberg Ranking.
Sort the list by Country / Region.
Sum up the wealth of the billionaires of the "Russian Federation".
Any Russians who are not indicated to be from the Russian Federation do not count in the total. | N/A | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | ||
T4XwN1YpNK7E2CLO3Z6x | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,700,418,654,873 | 1,702,408,500,000 | Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on Tue. December 12th than it closed on Mon. December 11th? {DAILY} | will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-faa729af8d17 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-faa729af8d17 | {
"NO": 523.297402809484,
"YES": 107.35801212578397
} | 0.811386 | 0.468805 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 651.094488 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,418,275,478 | 0.81 | 11 | 1,702,418,265,666 | 1,702,408,114,356 | 1,702,418,264,871 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | Russell 2000 (RUT)
RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).
Predictions close at 215pm ET (615pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close:
[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
WEEKLY MARKET
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-e843ee0c6d2e) | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
iBkefprzuKhucKoRELqs | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,699,636,790,780 | 1,700,236,800,000 | Will Rheinmetall close higher november 17th than the close of november 10th? (Weekly Market) | will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-3f225aad4f09 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-3f225aad4f09 | {
"NO": 873.4698006259905,
"YES": 31.798729269385163
} | 0.980982 | 0.652522 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 962.2247 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,265,244,341 | 0.98 | 6 | 1,710,222,352,610 | 1,700,235,411,032 | 1,700,265,239,828 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
knoYlYzMmR9xBIBgP3XY | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | Arch1e | Archie | 1,696,800,065,712 | 1,698,007,362,234 | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in a higher position than Yuki Tsunoda at the US Grand Prix? | 2023-formula-1-season-will-daniel-r | https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2023-formula-1-season-will-daniel-r | {
"NO": 128.7382475903931,
"YES": 2913.674881921871
} | 0.027543 | 0.390625 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,804.27864 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,007,362,234 | 0.03 | 26 | 1,698,006,689,457 | 1,698,006,689,326 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"formula-1",
"motorsports"
] | [United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA]
Resolves YES if Ricciardo finishes the race in a higher position than Tsunoda.
If either has a DNS, the market resolves N/A.
If Ricciardo is unable to attend or is replaced by Lawson again, resolves N/A.
(This is for the main race on Sunday, not the sprint) | N/A | null | null |