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vcF4gxnSDSHRVdZzfdQb | BbouUSNDQshsEKsepq7na757a2a2 | QuantumObserver | Quantum Observer | 1,673,006,309,340 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu31El0veqEHmPaRj9RP-M8KnBoQEAJ1KeTJVCbf=s96-c | 1,703,883,868,083 | Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? | will-rigetti-computing-inc-still-ex | https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-rigetti-computing-inc-still-ex | {
"NO": 2479.7042141031475,
"YES": 74.18551715591721
} | 0.958999 | 0.411677 | 730 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,795.311289 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,883,868,083 | 0.96 | 34 | 1,703,883,869,158 | 1,703,878,475,571 | 1,703,856,253,336 | [
"stocks",
"technology-default",
"science-default",
"quantum-computing",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves to know if Rigetti Inc is acquired by another public company or taken private.
Ticker is RGTI
Close date updated to 2024-01-01 12:00 am
Jan 6, 7:01am: Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? → Will Rigetti Computing Inc still exist as a publicly traded company by 2024? | N/A | BbouUSNDQshsEKsepq7na757a2a2 | |
g5uDSuEE9lKCyISDZS6S | 8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2 | MikeChenSF | Mike Chen | 1,665,812,523,703 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c | 1,667,285,940,000 | Will Kevin De León and Gil Cedillo resign from the Los Angeles City Council by October 31? | will-kevin-de-leon-and-gil-cedillo | https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-kevin-de-leon-and-gil-cedillo | {
"NO": 108.22097046457051,
"YES": 1426.7276196093605
} | 0.027537 | 0.271836 | 260 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,308.457908 | 0 | true | NO | 1,667,500,164,319 | 0.027537 | 12 | 1,667,283,006,026 | 1,667,283,003,397 | 1,667,278,592,178 | [
"california",
"politics-default"
] | This question resolves to yes if both Kevin de León and Gil Cedillo resign their seats on the Los Angeles City Council by Monday, October 31 at 11:59 PM Pacific time. If either De León or Cedillo announces his resignation before the deadline, but the resignation takes effect after the deadline, then the question will resolve to No.
Background: Two weeks ago, a recording was released where the two councilmembers were party to disparaging and racially charged remarks towards colleagues and other people. Multiple groups, including President Joe Biden, have called on the councilmembers to resign.
Councilmember and Council President Nury Martinez has resigned.
Background links:
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2022-10-11/white-house-la-council-scandal-martinez-resign
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/11/us/la-city-council-racist-remarks
https://abc7news.com/los-angeles-city-council-la-leaked-audio-gil-cedillo-kevin-de-leon/12327972/
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-nury-martinez-resign-from-the) | N/A | null | |
dark25SmqcjfxaaRvNAl | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,666,882,336,885 | 1,666,919,851,222 | Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close "at the last minute" Friday after 3pm ET? | will-elon-musks-acquisition-of-twit-8278d6219f53 | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-elon-musks-acquisition-of-twit-8278d6219f53 | {
"NO": 4.461174556634432,
"YES": 6896.779722410496
} | 0.000556 | 0.462487 | 240 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,210.552539 | 0 | true | NO | 1,666,919,851,222 | 0.006107 | 12 | 1,710,451,936,053 | 1,666,919,841,332 | 1,666,919,712,198 | [
"twitter",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"
] | Resolves YES if a deal for Elon Musk to buy Twitter closes on Friday October 28 between 3pm and midnight EDT.
Matt Levine writes:
Is this deal going to close on Thursday? Oh no, no no no. He’s got until 5 p.m. on Friday. A plausible time to close would be 4:45 on Friday, possibly 4:20. Really 5:30 is not entirely off the table; if they are all doing good amicable closing stuff at 4:59 Twitter is not going to go running to the judge to complain about it being a few minutes late. [The real deadline is probably when Fedwire closes, which is basically 6 p.m. You need to be able to send the money!]
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-26/musk-will-buy-twitter-at-the-last-minute
The time will be determined as the time of the first official announcement by Twitter or a reliable media publication (e.g. Reuters, Bloomberg, etc). (If any such announcements are later found to be in error, then they will not count.)
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-elon-musks-acquisition-of-twit)[markets]Oct 27, 2:10pm: Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close at the last minute Friday after 3pm ET? → Will Elon Musk's acquisition of Twitter close "at the last minute" Friday after 3pm ET? | N/A | null | ||
GyoOm6grXYrNpNb3MiFX | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,697,575,230,724 | 1,697,652,000,000 | Will the TSX close higher on October 18 than it did on October 17? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe-67f6e03f6a48 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-octobe-67f6e03f6a48 | {
"NO": 115.5230102816484,
"YES": 1586.0894616788555
} | 0.02759 | 0.280339 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,653.304301 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,664,796,580 | 0.03 | 14 | 1,697,664,776,181 | 1,697,651,786,194 | 1,697,664,775,492 | [
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"sccsq4",
"finance"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | null | null |
|
8UOYjH5gNAv1dGHyKU98 | eJz5Mol38CYKGtzfWuunjUhMFJG3 | axolotl | Adam | 1,677,878,693,690 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GifCc75sPq2cYlveaH_tQLAgeszLpDJ7qgLAhUgCA=s96-c | 1,677,915,924,104 | Will today's flight UA 5940 (ASE -> LAX) be cancelled or substantially delayed? | will-todays-flight-ua-5940-ase-lax | https://manifold.markets/axolotl/will-todays-flight-ua-5940-ase-lax | {
"NO": 87.89420343891784,
"YES": 1554.6431138296748
} | 0.027808 | 0.335959 | 320 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,321.504675 | 0 | true | NO | 1,677,915,924,104 | 0.03 | 8 | 1,677,908,528,283 | 1,677,908,528,123 | 1,677,896,152,814 | [] | This market resolves YES if the United Airlines flight 5940 from Aspen to Los Angeles does not depart within 90 minutes of 7:13pm MST today (March 3).
In the event of a delay, I will check the "Departure" time under Past Flights at https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL5940 and resolve YES if the time is later than 08:43pm MST.
EDIT: further clarification: I will resolve the market when the outcome is clear from public information. I am betting in this market, but promise not to make use of private information (e.g. announcements in the airport before flightaware updates). | N/A | null | |
yIkVSPOhGErWUbeXMCoq | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,698,789,808,925 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,704,169,275,470 | [Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023? | kalshi-will-the-cdc-identify-a-new | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/kalshi-will-the-cdc-identify-a-new | {
"NO": 71.72385814080735,
"YES": 610.2777953318543
} | 0.031536 | 0.216954 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 704.777769 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,169,275,470 | -1 | 5 | 1,704,169,275,945 | 1,704,117,894,223 | -1 | [
"kalshi"
] | Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the CDC has identified a new VOC between Issuance and December 31, 2023, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
L5QMb0V3DnA5pJ7DV3ST | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,675,192,356 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,677,961,070,110 | Will Vaush's video "Dilbert Comic Creator Scott Adams Canceled for Incredibly Racist Rant" reach 70k views or more by 3/08 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-dilbert-comic-cre | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-dilbert-comic-cre | {
"NO": 10423.110390533557,
"YES": 9.780162441487846
} | 0.999714 | 0.766327 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,573 | 0 | true | YES | 1,677,961,070,110 | 1 | 2 | 1,710,218,548,379 | 1,677,961,059,890 | -1 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/xE0PHLg4P68
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
CdJRgTl2eCIp0ASkeefT | 5lsyVwICQLbrpGRZWb2br66Dc3I3 | tozac | tozac | 1,699,199,830,734 | 1,701,935,940,000 | Will the DLC for ELDEN RING, 'Shadow of the Erdtree', be shown at The Game Awards 2023? | will-the-dlc-for-elden-ring-shadow-9fc1de42cd38 | https://manifold.markets/tozac/will-the-dlc-for-elden-ring-shadow-9fc1de42cd38 | {
"NO": 488.5367843626825,
"YES": 190.29744244131376
} | 0.903502 | 0.784811 | 247.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 560.913071 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,008,298,710 | 0.9 | 17 | 1,701,929,319,269 | 1,701,929,319,137 | -1 | [
"the-game-awards-2023",
"video-games",
"elden-ring",
"gaming",
"fromsoftware"
] | "Shown" means a trailer, showcase, etc. If there is a slide with just a release date and nothing else on the game, it still counts as shown. This will close the day before the game awards on 12/6/23, and resolve immediately after the awards show.
[image] | N/A | null | ||
EljicohvlQZgKZSQ9RAd | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,703,086,706,282 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,703,565,292,905 | Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-san-francisco-49ers-beat-t-01b1c13c5bc3 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-san-francisco-49ers-beat-t-01b1c13c5bc3 | {
"NO": 29.866143691882193,
"YES": 1434.478782436428
} | 0.005146 | 0.199013 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,539.870246 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,565,342,073 | 0.01 | 14 | 1,703,565,139,947 | 1,703,565,139,815 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"nfl",
"football",
"baltimore-ravens",
"san-francisco-49ers"
] | Yes - 49ers win
No - Ravens win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
Z9CO2039RNROEHeySnmH | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,705,151,005,777 | 1,705,332,900,000 | Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-41830d1bc125 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-41830d1bc125 | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.114754 | 0.114754 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,393,388,592 | 0.11 | 0 | 1,705,393,388,798 | 1,705,151,011,453 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-15 15:35 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-15 - 17:35 (UTC)
09:35 (Los Angeles)
12:35 (New York)
18:35 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
9xlaSyONTN44J611rLzb | AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342 | Sjlver | Sjlver | 1,661,949,906,103 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c | 1,664,092,800,000 | Will Swiss people accept the amendment to the Federal Act on Withholding Tax? | will-swiss-people-accept-the-amendm | https://manifold.markets/Sjlver/will-swiss-people-accept-the-amendm | {
"NO": 95.69044108991794,
"YES": 148.54464363784479
} | 0.402972 | 0.511666 | 120 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 115 | 0 | true | NO | 1,664,191,749,917 | 0.402972 | 6 | 1,664,051,522,088 | 1,664,051,521,968 | -1 | [
"politics-default"
] | On the 25 September 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Amendment to the Federal Act on Withholding Tax.
[image]Current situation
The Confederation levies a withholding tax of 35 per cent on income from interest. People living in Switzerland can claim this tax back if they declare the interest in their tax return. Withholding tax is only due on interest from bonds if the bonds were issued in Switzerland. This is a disadvantage for the Swiss economy, because in order to raise money, many companies issue their bonds in countries where no withholding tax is levied.
The proposal
Swiss companies should be encouraged to issue bonds in Switzerland. This is why the new bill exempts domestic bonds from withholding tax. Swiss bonds would thus become more attractive for investors. The bill also abolishes the sales tax on domestic bonds and other securities. This is currently payable when buying and selling securities. Both measures would benefit the Swiss economy. In the best-case scenario, the reform could already finance itself in the year that it comes into effect. A referendum against the amendment has been called for. The referendum committee claims that the bill will result in more tax evasion.
This Market
This market resolves YES if the amendment is accepted. A majority of voters is needed for both of the proposals. A majority of states is not needed, because there is no change to the constitution.
Source: https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220925/amendment-to-the-federal-act-on-withholding-tax.html | N/A | null | null |
8DxCGMn42dbZoGL4xVxh | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | SEE | SEE | 1,701,435,595,928 | 1,704,120,917,661 | Will Joe Biden still be alive on January 1st, 2024? | will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ja | https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ja | {
"NO": 553.1343620522504,
"YES": 204.0209265378237
} | 0.967535 | 0.916614 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 846.865638 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,120,917,661 | 0.97 | 10 | 1,704,120,918,776 | 1,701,945,717,180 | -1 | [
"death-markets",
"the-life-of-biden",
"us-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.
As usual, I will not bet on my own market. | N/A | nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972 | ||
7iLmf8HDFFfbYSq5YN4Y | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | mattyb | Matty B | 1,706,148,594,941 | 1,707,778,773,395 | Will Lisa Frankenstein make $12M in its opening weekend? | will-lisa-frankenstein-make-12m-in | https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-lisa-frankenstein-make-12m-in | {
"NO": 26.426086770739857,
"YES": 13111.516323069049
} | 0.000772 | 0.277171 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13,945.684495 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,778,773,395 | 0 | 9 | 1,707,778,774,356 | 1,707,778,767,658 | 1,707,778,746,719 | [
"entertainment",
"movies",
"television-film",
"boxoffice"
] | Will Lisa Frankenstein make $12M in its opening weekend at the domestic box office?
The film opens February 9th and stars Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse in a Comedy Horror Romance retelling of the Frankenstein story. | N/A | oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2 | ||
lrolRvGqu0r2t4SJ9IRO | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,705,462,791,595 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,711,206,772,545 | Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Illinois Republican presidential primary? | will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5c6c05a33e1d | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5c6c05a33e1d | {
"NO": 23430.074303420563,
"YES": 63.470875578805135
} | 0.998946 | 0.719598 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,383.146185 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,206,772,545 | 1 | 18 | 1,711,206,772,545 | 1,711,206,769,197 | 1,711,206,615,534 | [] | Resolves N/A if the 2024 Illinois Republican presidential primary was cancaled | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
kOmunm6ojesWHPHKsmvU | hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2 | Stralor | Pat Scott🩴 | 1,697,879,487,200 | 1,701,417,540,000 | Will any country's current Head of State or Government die in November? | will-any-countrys-current-head-of-s-152e1fb449c3 | https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-any-countrys-current-head-of-s-152e1fb449c3 | {
"NO": 137.54298570025048,
"YES": 3136.440801464757
} | 0.02186 | 0.33758 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,090.946148 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,423,524,268 | 0.02 | 21 | 1,701,423,596,885 | 1,701,392,459,135 | 1,701,423,590,720 | [
"death-markets",
"death",
"politics-default",
"world-default"
] | Must be a country's leader (for governments with both, either head of state or head of government is fine, even if ceremonial) as of November 1st, local time, or become such by question close. Doesn't need to die "in office".
Edge case example: a president who leaves office the third day of the month but then dies the fifth counts.
Key Links:
Presidents, Prime Ministers, Monarchs, etc. (most of these are valid, see caveat below)
Partial Death List
Caveat: members of a council that is itself the Head count, but "deputies" "vices" and "assistants" where there is a higher seat do not. | N/A | null | null |
|
fIoTrJTILrUukaiedhcu | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,700,156,631,503 | 1,700,236,800,000 | Will Allianz SE close higher november 17th than the close of november 16th? (Daily Market) | will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-e4d59c09e345 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-e4d59c09e345 | {
"NO": 580.6984249678023,
"YES": 62.905770499347774
} | 0.95 | 0.673013 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 885.603139 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,265,948,533 | 0.95 | 8 | 1,710,222,351,161 | 1,700,235,324,932 | 1,700,265,944,073 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
V4SxiSxv9dVzOq3PDMT8 | m7rMLWv8O8YIz5GPhDwj56kOWXG2 | SeitaY | Seita | 1,692,113,042,702 | 1,692,274,425,353 | Will the Australian Boomers win their warmup basketball game against the South Sudan National Team on August 17? | bwill-the-australian-boomers-win-th | https://manifold.markets/SeitaY/bwill-the-australian-boomers-win-th | {
"NO": 205.20996185341454,
"YES": 54.360286684330866
} | 0.899208 | 0.702673 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 154.041358 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,274,425,353 | 0.9 | 6 | 1,692,151,753,893 | 1,692,151,753,661 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"fiba-basketball-world-cup-2023",
"basketball",
"australia"
] | N/A | null | null |
||
kDr4Lneegqtzjr1nDQOZ | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,707,191,692,635 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,716,568,857,345 | Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in May 2024 surpass 4M views? | will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-423e3ffc9a7a | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-423e3ffc9a7a | {
"NO": 1301.253402651644,
"YES": 10.86029346025039
} | 0.99 | 0.452432 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,290.744078 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,568,857,345 | 0.99 | 9 | 1,716,568,857,345 | 1,716,405,642,871 | 1,716,404,435,649 | [
"lex-fridman",
"youtube"
] | Resolution base on the video view counts on Joe Rogan's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in May 2024 received over 4M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
| N/A | srFlJRuVlGa7SEJDM4cY9B5k4Lj2 | |
K4d3oQXIC3vXmTTIHKNa | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,682,299,572,887 | 1,682,548,068,115 | Will the House pass a debt ceiling bill in April? | will-the-house-pass-a-debt-ceiling | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-house-pass-a-debt-ceiling | {
"NO": 580.1767283796157,
"YES": 2.385883228728858
} | 0.991092 | 0.313915 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 650 | 0 | true | YES | 1,682,548,068,115 | 0.99 | 4 | 1,682,548,027,680 | 1,682,547,986,153 | 1,682,548,024,622 | [
"us-politics",
"debt-ceiling",
"118th-congress"
] | Resolves YES if the House passes legislation that increases the debt limit in April 2023. Otherwise NO.
Context:
McCarthy Says House Will Pass GOP Debt-Limit Bill This Week
Inside the GOP maneuvering to pass something on the debt ceiling | N/A | null | ||
oGefPWejiaDMA9PomAv3 | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,701,832,871,998 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,702,847,317,615 | NFL🏈:Week 15 Will the New Orleans Saints win their 12/17 NFL Game against the New York Giants by more than 13.5 points? | nflweek-15-will-the-new-orleans-sai | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nflweek-15-will-the-new-orleans-sai | {
"NO": 468.4203428034759,
"YES": 32.36968564718568
} | 0.92 | 0.442802 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,374.798681 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,847,317,615 | 0.92 | 9 | 1,710,206,776,692 | 1,702,847,081,826 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"new-orleans-saints",
"new-york-giants"
] | ESPN has the win probability of the New Orleans Saints at 80.7% (as of time of creation of this market).
Giants vs. Saints (Dec 17, 2023) Live Score - ESPN
Will they win this game by at least 2 Touchdowns? Will resolve yes if the Saints win and the winning margin is greater than 13.5 pts.
Question closes at 3:30 PM CENTRAL TIME irrespective of game end time. | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
MJD3SlKBhnnwp76j6SUB | p8YJwKej4bV4L5Y2nFjGqpEb3Vv2 | BjornAnderson | Bjorn Anderson | 1,700,422,593,170 | 1,701,030,205,101 | Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | will-max-verstappen-win-the-abu-dha | https://manifold.markets/BjornAnderson/will-max-verstappen-win-the-abu-dha | {
"NO": 7298.820718645545,
"YES": 148.82535810243755
} | 0.996152 | 0.840733 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,838.756441 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,030,205,101 | 1 | 20 | 1,710,206,665,345 | 1,701,019,979,134 | -1 | [
"formula-1",
"motorsports"
] | Will Max win the main race in Abu Dhabi? | N/A | null | null |
|
kRBOpgwSa8yI58pYZICO | hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3 | Eliza | Eliza | 1,689,964,930,928 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c | 1,690,134,542,781 | Will Tadej Pogacar win the best young rider classification in the 2023 Tour de France? | will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-best-you | https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-best-you | {
"NO": 5210.93501458027,
"YES": 139.7973058947441
} | 0.99629 | 0.878124 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,203.478665 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,134,547,562 | 1 | 13 | 1,690,134,539,075 | 1,690,134,538,952 | 1,690,000,308,355 | [
"sports-default",
"road-bicycle-racing",
"tour-de-france",
"peloton-discord"
] | N/A | null | null |
|
u91lqiIdyQ3oP9qDwzjJ | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,674,092,976,012 | 1,704,111,265,913 | Will Jmook have a positive or even head-to-head win-loss record against Hungrybox in 2023? | will-jmook-have-a-positive-or-even | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jmook-have-a-positive-or-even | {
"NO": 10566.530700494539,
"YES": 7.032909457833739
} | 0.999683 | 0.677594 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,583.134592 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,111,265,913 | 1 | 6 | 1,704,111,266,676 | 1,704,111,261,830 | 1,704,069,055,131 | [
"super-smash-bros-series",
"video-games",
"gaming",
"esports",
"super-smash-bros-melee"
] | Only tournament sets count.
Only melee sets count.
Only singles sets count.
Only offline sets count.
Bo3 and Bo5 are both counted.
Sets still count even if secondaries are used.
Sets still count even if they occur at "less serious" tournaments, like tournaments held at an open bar.
This market will resolve to YES if Jmook has more set wins than losses or the same amount of set wins as losses against Hungrybox over the course of 2023. Otherwise it will resolve to NO.
| N/A | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | null |
|
JavA21FbYQ6y7xck4MgG | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,005,073,264 | 1,700,089,200,000 | Will SOL close higher on November 15 than it closed on November 14? | will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1-e7eb28671678 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-november-1-e7eb28671678 | {
"NO": 1032.046071015185,
"YES": 44.31617251066122
} | 0.980374 | 0.682032 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,031.938257 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,096,416,407 | 0.98 | 6 | 1,700,096,411,385 | 1,700,080,849,709 | 1,700,096,410,649 | [
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4",
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel
Previous Close: $
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | null | null |
|
IGxq4PmV8rYNNVfWTCbN | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,690,383,532,146 | 1,690,558,200,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 28th July than it closed on 27th July? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-38028342e037 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-38028342e037 | {
"NO": 2130.5071802905804,
"YES": 99.79669231561947
} | 0.972048 | 0.619623 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,056.875164 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,573,900,919 | 0.97 | 18 | 1,710,462,492,666 | 1,690,558,147,818 | 1,690,383,661,598 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 28th July than it did on Thursday 27th July?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are also some markets on what the FTSE 100 will do in the month of July:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-79f76b84a731
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-july-with
And some longer term markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
vHB5TxyzKhfHVxFIHhqT | w2NKbnnwtbWldF1qtgmAN1cko1g1 | yunglady | yunglady | 1,674,843,036,142 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7FQMqwZBcCEK7gBJ428sQ-Ra8BNOPEPbgz7JlgYw=s96-c | 1,675,245,070,220 | Will I throw up at university on Wednesday? | will-i-throw-up-at-university-on-we | https://manifold.markets/yunglady/will-i-throw-up-at-university-on-we | {
"NO": 95.58884766364834,
"YES": 240.00000000000006
} | 0.09467 | 0.207951 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 110 | 0 | true | NO | 1,675,245,070,220 | 0.09 | 4 | 1,674,934,274,608 | 1,674,934,274,469 | 1,674,843,386,459 | [] | Okay for context:
Im studying medicine and on Wednesday, there will be a lesson, where we will learn, how to insert a gastric tube... on ourselves!
A few fellow students who already had that lesson have thrown up, many haven't tho. As you all know, I have a record of nut throwing up that is already captured on this app.
Im (Not) looking forward to what Wednesday brings.
Resolves to Yes, if I puke in correlation to the lesson on Wednesday, gagging doesn't count, there has to be Sth coming out of my mouth in order to fulfill the needs of puking.
Close date updated to 2023-02-02 12:59 am
Close date updated to 2023-02-01 12:00 pm | N/A | null | null |
qtNAh6PJ47TVruXF9TXJ | HPJzzWkIWjcX9kLhSM3ogUjx4c92 | aoife | aoife | 1,688,370,084,037 | 1,688,917,268,621 | Will the 2023 F1 British Grand Prix be red flagged? | will-the-2023-f1-british-grand-prix | https://manifold.markets/aoife/will-the-2023-f1-british-grand-prix | {
"NO": 31.636572764900833,
"YES": 1552.028999665483
} | 0.01052 | 0.342797 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,660.399809 | 0 | true | NO | 1,688,917,268,621 | 0.01 | 6 | 1,688,916,687,838 | 1,688,916,687,718 | -1 | [
"formula-1"
] | Resolves to YES if:
The Race session of the 2023 F1 British Grand Prix is red flagged at least once during the race. Does not count any flags thrown during other sessions (nor any after the final car has crossed the checkered flag).
Resolves to NO otherwise.
Resolves to N/A if the race does not take place. | N/A | null | null |
|
fKv1xJhadKsn4UFCbmBG | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | cash | cshunter | 1,701,793,731,486 | 1,708,021,913,990 | Did China become more authoritarian in 2023? | did-china-become-more-authoritarian | https://manifold.markets/cash/did-china-become-more-authoritarian | {
"NO": 126.97037143874628,
"YES": 2187.8789349946296
} | 0.009485 | 0.14164 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,812.910172 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,021,913,990 | 0.01 | 12 | 1,708,023,342,578 | 1,708,016,827,979 | 1,708,023,341,926 | [
"elections-world",
"democracy",
"politics-default",
"world-default",
"elections",
"china",
"asia"
] | This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2024) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If China's democracy score for 2023 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2023:
@/cash/did-the-world-become-more-authorita-08db6b0f8b90
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita
@/cash/did-the-united-states-become-more-a
@/cash/did-russia-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-germany-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/did-india-become-more-authoritarian
@/cash/did-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/did-france-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-canada-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-ukraine-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/did-israel-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-turkey-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-poland-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/did-argentina-become-more-authorita
| N/A | GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1 | ||
0MavdUu7qp8WXxd2AuY0 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,709,206,758,939 | 1,717,073,475,503 | Will there be a by-election in Surrey Heath (Michael Gove’s seat) before the next general election? | will-there-be-a-byelection-in-surre | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-there-be-a-byelection-in-surre | {
"NO": 59.330512674244915,
"YES": 1551.7807227289106
} | 0.027472 | 0.424897 | 240 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,320 | 0 | true | NO | 1,717,073,475,503 | 0.03 | 8 | 1,717,073,513,148 | 1,716,638,490,782 | 1,717,073,511,794 | [
"elections",
"uk",
"politics-default",
"-2019-parliament-byelections",
"uk-conservative-party",
"uk-politics"
] | Michael Gove is under investigation by the Parliamentary standards watchdog for failing to declare hospitality from a donor who was awarded over £100,000,000 in Covid PPE contracts:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/29/michael-gove-under-investigation-by-standards-watchdog
If he is found to have breached the rules and given a lengthy suspension from the Commons, this could trigger a by-election in his seat of Surrey Heath.
Will a by-election take place before the next general election?
If a by-election takes place, the market will resolve to YES
If Parliament is dissolved for a general election before any by-election is announced, the market will resolve to NO
If a by-election is announced but cancelled because Parliament has been dissolved for a general election, this market resolves to NO
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
N9QcizR8d792PcMab5Xs | 5kyqDZxKRAdMRqZqtaMTHdjckAE3 | TomBouley | Tom Bouley | 1,690,795,886,540 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Ui45tVUvmTvBxHoNc8FaXeIysMue5RYgepg0b=s96-c | 1,691,686,786,946 | Will the results of Fermilab's Muon g-2 experiment agree with the Standard Model predictions based on lattice QCD? | will-the-results-of-fermilabs-muon | https://manifold.markets/TomBouley/will-the-results-of-fermilabs-muon | {
"NO": 405.77154294643447,
"YES": 145.03452935320487
} | 0.782413 | 0.562414 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 388.560846 | 0 | true | YES | 1,691,686,786,946 | 0.78 | 12 | 1,691,686,744,078 | 1,691,685,654,805 | 1,691,686,741,964 | [
"physics",
"science-default",
"particle-physics",
"muon-g2-experiment"
] | Fermilab's Muon g-2 experiment is expected to publish its second measurement of the muon magnetic dipole moment on August 10th. Will this measurement agree (within $2\sigma$) with the Standard Model prediction using the BMW lattice QCD based estimate of the hadronic contibutions to the muon magnetic dipole moment?
| N/A | null | null |
7aAy0753QNwMYTdrAvXr | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,711,148,265,851 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,712,242,564,342 | [Metaculus] Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the Apr...024, shareholder meeting? | metaculus-will-a-nondisneynominated | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-a-nondisneynominated | {
"NO": 68.18647938913728,
"YES": 6119.11961631259
} | 0.00252 | 0.18482 | 220 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,033.042877 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,242,564,342 | -1 | 7 | 1,712,242,564,342 | 1,712,213,080,909 | 1,712,174,546,269 | [
"metaculus",
"movies"
] | Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21972/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that at least one non-Disney -nominated board member has been elected to Disney's board as a result of the April 3, 2024, shareholder vote.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
xi1c02jHe33zIq42oxbu | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,678,743,842,604 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,679,004,736,482 | Will Destiny's video "Destiny Explains How Conservatives Lost The Culture War" reach 160k views by 3/20 9 A.M. PST? | will-destinys-video-destiny-explain | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-destiny-explain | {
"NO": 10729.076350763049,
"YES": 17.308193172835672
} | 0.999297 | 0.696231 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,128.917158 | 0 | true | YES | 1,679,004,736,482 | 1 | 6 | 1,710,218,629,799 | 1,679,004,732,427 | 1,679,004,463,210 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/mFhVGJHy5EM
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
VhvbKuRM3vj70p0tuiZC | uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2 | BruceGrugett | BCG | 1,670,530,699,878 | 1,670,781,600,000 | Will the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday? | will-the-detroit-lions-beat-the-min | https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-detroit-lions-beat-the-min | {
"NO": 298.22758927723345,
"YES": 234.00600710832555
} | 0.519244 | 0.458721 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 277.222342 | 0 | true | YES | 1,670,795,484,623 | 0.52 | 13 | 1,670,780,626,240 | 1,670,780,626,111 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"nfl"
] | Detroit is at home and is favored by 2.5 points. | N/A | null | ||
ji5xSu5nRxA3oWKlTSKi | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,682,822,363,397 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,690,980,887,658 | Will Manifold Reach 8000 Monthly Active Users in 2023? | will-manifold-reach-8000-monthly-ac-3227c3eda86d | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-reach-8000-monthly-ac-3227c3eda86d | {
"NO": 194481.7272867205,
"YES": 4358.773926744878
} | 0.992268 | 0.742022 | 11,790 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 378,838.687905 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,980,887,658 | 0.99 | 131 | 1,691,020,805,409 | 1,690,980,878,847 | 1,691,020,802,398 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"showcase"
] | Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats
Resolves "YES" if Manifold reaches 8000 monthly active users at any point in 2023
Resolves "NO" otherwise
Resolves "N/A" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public
| N/A | null | |
QRj76HjGSWVdg89k1vFz | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,684,894,184,323 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,685,246,340,000 | Will the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market be *mostly* above 90% on May 27th | will-the-will-biden-be-the-2024-dem-bb8d5ba334eb | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-will-biden-be-the-2024-dem-bb8d5ba334eb | {
"NO": 99.20096274956315,
"YES": 362.2358493027683
} | 0.10569 | 0.301452 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 527.991399 | 0 | true | NO | 1,685,282,512,451 | 0.11 | 10 | 1,710,456,568,832 | 1,685,239,830,316 | -1 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | Resolve to Yes if the "Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee" market is greater than 90% at any two of the following moments on May 27th: 12 noon, 3 pm, and 6 pm ET
Added clarification: I'm resolving based on the rounded displayed number on Manifold UI. Which means that the displayed number has to be 91% to be "greater than 90%"
(https://manifold.markets/embed/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n) | N/A | null | null |
g7lZcnHwjDuIv6SdXtcU | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,702,889,448,138 | 1,703,275,200,000 | Will Dominos close higher Dec 22 than Dec 15? (DPZ Weekly) | will-dominos-close-higher-dec-22-th | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-dominos-close-higher-dec-22-th | {
"NO": 801.0685197766069,
"YES": 64.54152810306736
} | 0.953951 | 0.625339 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 637.606981 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,288,522,206 | 0.95 | 8 | 1,703,285,681,577 | 1,703,274,181,219 | 1,703,285,680,938 | [
"stock-marketweekly",
"dominos",
"sccsq4",
"nyse"
] | DPZ closes at 4pm EST.
This market closes 1 hour earlier
Previous Close Price: 400.05
This market will be resolved based on Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
poCulgdgPxYGA1HA0HDM | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,694,299,143,786 | 1,694,395,200,000 | Will FR flight 7354 from Dublin to Chania on 2023-09-11 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-fr-flight-7354-from-dublin-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-7354-from-dublin-to | {
"NO": 385.8182336571606,
"YES": 106.04428646440984
} | 0.793458 | 0.513593 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 760.146293 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,498,778,970 | 0.79 | 13 | 1,694,394,657,329 | 1,694,394,657,123 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/25xv9sek | N/A | null | null |
|
ENevVYiHBmbfpitZQQzB | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | KongoLandwalker | Kongo Landwalker | 1,710,500,805,885 | 1,710,760,946,493 | Will more than 1000 people be arrested on 17th march in Russia in the context of elections? | will-more-than-1000-people-be-arres | https://manifold.markets/KongoLandwalker/will-more-than-1000-people-be-arres | {
"NO": 69.77047101765436,
"YES": 1624.2615759350347
} | 0.025159 | 0.375321 | 240 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,465.540525 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,760,946,493 | 0.03 | 9 | 1,710,760,947,100 | 1,710,760,361,363 | 1,710,760,919,892 | [] | https://ovd.info/ Resolves to the number shown on this site on 21st march.
They collect information about politically motivated arrests.
| N/A | 9ZW2q78eBBQ49omVY80OX5fAylQ2 | null |
|
pxsAwOEJcmwqBS0vHE1d | kxF71D6rs9XpOJOWmkjwSM6XFoo2 | MichaelIon | Mike Ion | 1,697,415,870,617 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIOWNRtXr2rHD7itzCbnitTRr0OZ2ENc7hdp5DXIBOyEPE=s96-c | 1,698,033,540,000 | Will Ed Lararson be the next new host of Last Podcast on the Left? (Before June 2024) | will-ed-lararson-become-the-next-ne | https://manifold.markets/MichaelIon/will-ed-lararson-become-the-next-ne | {
"NO": 154.59568438611086,
"YES": 85.89278720398951
} | 0.752056 | 0.627591 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 59.102238 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,703,866,953 | 0.75 | 5 | 1,697,611,839,327 | 1,697,611,838,965 | -1 | [] | Results to yes if any podcast produced by, or social media managed by, the Last Podcast Network (LPN) announces Ed Larson as a permanent 3rd host of Last Podcast on the Left. (LPOTL)
Does not nessesarily result if Ed Larson is announced as host of Side Stories.
Does not necessarily result to yes if Ed is announced as "interim host" or equivalent temporary position, of LPOTL.
Results to yes if Ed is announced as permanent host of LPOTL but not 1/3 owner of LPN.
Results to no if it is announced that only Marcus and Henry will remain the two permanent hosts.
Results to no if no announcement regarding hosts of LPOTL is made before June 1 2024.
--PUSH CONDITIONS--
Market pushes on June 1 2024 to December 31 2024 if a vacancy for, permanent, 3rd host is announced by June 1 2024.
Market does not push (and is resulted by above rules) if a new, permanent, 3rd host, is announced before June 1, 2024 by a person representing LPN in any way that a non-involved, reasonable, 3rd party observer would conclude such person to be permanent 3rd host
I will not bet on this market. | N/A | kxF71D6rs9XpOJOWmkjwSM6XFoo2 | null |
k8CLk8XWUGj4BAlw0IqO | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,698,246,315,496 | 1,698,334,200,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 26th October than it closed on 25th October? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-a195acac6d4a | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-a195acac6d4a | {
"NO": 121.4417632117641,
"YES": 3682.529568854807
} | 0.007045 | 0.177058 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,830.980115 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,336,171,475 | 0.01 | 17 | 1,710,462,514,668 | 1,698,333,347,870 | -1 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"sccsq4",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 26th October than it did on Wednesday 25th October?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
5R9mFEyLuEZ8EA1M7gR0 | ubDKHRj6aqWFPjCP9EYh8vTw37v1 | d | Vo | 1,664,810,816,224 | 1,685,307,160,274 | Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? | wil-erling-haaland-be-the-premier-l | https://manifold.markets/d/wil-erling-haaland-be-the-premier-l | {
"NO": 3878.1925481161315,
"YES": 218.71196023514386
} | 0.994436 | 0.90974 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 35,553.479911 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,307,160,274 | 0.99 | 22 | 1,685,307,152,429 | 1,685,307,152,314 | 1,685,307,139,221 | [
"sports-default"
] | At the end of the 2022/23 we will see who the top scorer was for the Premier League.
Oct 3, 12:28pm: Wil Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? → Will Erling Haaland be the Premier League top scorer? | N/A | null | null |
|
vUkywj0JVuWXHfTr6wcS | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,695,735,152,387 | 1,704,085,140,000 | US government shutdown longer than 7 days? | us-government-shutdown-longer-than | https://manifold.markets/jack/us-government-shutdown-longer-than | {
"NO": 102.96424841543781,
"YES": 7442.3476428983095
} | 0.009592 | 0.411767 | 770 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 14,613.631887 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,135,753,745 | 0.01 | 46 | 1,704,135,754,253 | 1,702,095,307,137 | 1,695,994,091,330 | [
"kalshi",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves the same as https://kalshi.com/markets/govshutlength/government-shutdown-length#govshutlength-23dec31
If (in 2023) the government is shut down for more than 7 days, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Days will be counted by checking the source agency at 10:00 AM ET. PLEASE NOTE: If there are multiple government shutdowns during the relevant period, this market only applies to the first shutdown, as the market will resolve after the end of the first shutdown. | N/A | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | null |
|
g7vBpky3NtXBnrP7s7CM | vZ2BIFdBHXQNnsTopYX3jGBReCP2 | tsaitama | tsaitama | 1,714,451,844,785 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIo1kLpLqU_LW5SgKLVf379xSEck6-uiJeXIhpoN3xKdsQ=s96-c | 1,715,131,783,673 | Will Luffy go back into Gear 5 in Chapter 1114? | will-luffy-go-back-into-gear-5-in-c | https://manifold.markets/tsaitama/will-luffy-go-back-into-gear-5-in-c | {
"NO": 1256.521994775027,
"YES": 7.3028286541626315
} | 0.99 | 0.365233 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,480.565989 | 0 | true | YES | 1,715,131,783,673 | 0.99 | 11 | 1,715,131,783,673 | 1,715,094,856,134 | 1,715,028,106,806 | [
"one-piece-stocks",
"entertainment",
"one-piece-theories",
"manga"
] | Fairly straight forward question. I'll try to close it earlier if I read the spoilers (if they appear on my timeline). | N/A | vZ2BIFdBHXQNnsTopYX3jGBReCP2 | null |
1CjiVsp2kkUQU055zdhf | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | jks | JKS | 1,700,866,773,143 | 1,712,005,200,000 | Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 1 April 2024? | will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-a07985ac480e | https://manifold.markets/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-a07985ac480e | {
"NO": 498.91753836816787,
"YES": 3748.433601840058
} | 0.028474 | 0.18046 | 750 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,737.911533 | 0 | true | NO | 1,712,005,899,599 | 0.03 | 38 | 1,712,005,200,000 | 1,711,985,698,419 | 1,707,601,383,305 | [
"venezuela",
"sudamerica-south-america",
"guyana",
"venezuelaguyana-crisis"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba#Proposed_consultative_referendum
Related markets:
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-a07985ac480e (this market)
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-56e9c36cd5b4
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-d71435ac097f
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-71c545143d71 | N/A | 5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2 | null |
|
XYK4PA4d3O8xF8ls3PjM | yhMjQ7Ph9AgzMQHPSnWJ4EwFVu12 | NLeseul | NLeseul | 1,689,216,850,749 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5NPcSyIQZFZcOY7wcwSutdgrXKzq-TcO3gnn6UvQ=s96-c | 1,704,085,140,000 | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky post on Threads before the end of 2023? | will-eliezer-yudkowsky-post-on-thre | https://manifold.markets/NLeseul/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-post-on-thre | {
"NO": 111.50530420430891,
"YES": 1575.7533584860137
} | 0.031188 | 0.312683 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,375.739073 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,130,656,957 | 0.03 | 12 | 1,704,130,657,259 | 1,703,271,193,414 | 1,704,130,645,237 | [
"culture-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | "Threads" is a new social app recently released by Meta, with ambitions to become a viable alternative to Twitter in the near future.
As far as I know, Eliezer Yudkowsky does not currently have an account on Threads and has never posted anything there. But will he?
Resolves YES if a post is made on Threads by an account credibly verified to belong to Yudkowsky before the close date. Resolves NO otherwise.
Considerations:
The post must be made specifically on the Threads network. If, for example, a Yudkowsky post on another network like Mastodon becomes viewable through Threads, that would not count.
Top-level posts, comments on other users' posts, and "re-threads" all count.
It's fine if it's content duplicated from Twitter or another site. | N/A | yhMjQ7Ph9AgzMQHPSnWJ4EwFVu12 | |
h7uTV0ct9IDpTufJA5FV | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,698,701,020,181 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,704,204,000,000 | [Metaculus] Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024? | metaculus-will-india-request-that-a | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-india-request-that-a | {
"NO": 80.36128550642209,
"YES": 3794.103155314901
} | 0.003307 | 0.135445 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,669.756746 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,241,350,785 | -1 | 7 | 1,704,241,350,965 | 1,704,196,253,698 | -1 | [
"metaculus",
"india",
"geopolitics-india-and-canada",
"canada"
] | Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19592/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 25, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that India has requested that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
NlAs5nCgdZNUYf04kPWo | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,669,227,625,414 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,680,340,260,000 | Will FIFA still have 211 member associations on April 1, 2023? | will-fifa-still-have-211-member-ass | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-fifa-still-have-211-member-ass | {
"NO": 3105.534935232808,
"YES": 364.5229981849726
} | 0.965596 | 0.767136 | 650 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,460.451163 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,348,364,341 | 0.97 | 32 | 1,680,340,045,014 | 1,680,340,044,900 | 1,680,286,928,452 | [
"soccer",
"2022-fifa-world-cup",
"football",
"fifa-2022-controversies"
] | FIFA, which stands for Fédération Internationale de Football Association, is an international governing body of association football, beach football and futsal.
In November 2022 FIFA consisted of 211 affiliated associations.
However...
[image]
This market will resolve to YES if on April 1, 2023, this number is the same. | N/A | null | |
NScMEoOtzUoy4ixKaRYA | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,695,316,451,071 | 1,695,382,295,794 | Will UO flight 619 from Seoul to Hong Kong on 2023-09-22 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-uo-flight-619-from-seoul-to-ho-5a7b3712ea41 | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-uo-flight-619-from-seoul-to-ho-5a7b3712ea41 | {
"NO": 391.9967569452953,
"YES": 96.84329948698132
} | 0.93 | 0.766478 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 344.047489 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,382,295,794 | -1 | 7 | 1,695,368,154,524 | 1,695,368,153,330 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/5x8prchn | N/A | null | null |
|
sUAxOKmXhe0Iy5QMgcs1 | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | probajoelistic | Probajoelistic | 1,698,980,336,360 | 1,704,171,540,000 | Will GPT-4 do better at composing music with ABC Notation than with (Note, Duration) pairs? | will-gpt4-do-better-at-composing-mu | https://manifold.markets/probajoelistic/will-gpt4-do-better-at-composing-mu | {
"NO": 297.5,
"YES": 262.350142591745
} | 0.623082 | 0.593129 | 277.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,209,712,785 | 0.62 | 2 | 1,704,209,712,942 | 1,698,982,476,511 | 1,704,209,702,557 | [
"chatgpt",
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"gpt4",
"technology-default",
"prompt-engineering",
"-ai-music-generation",
"llm-prompts",
"ai"
] | I will prompt GPT-4 with something like:
Compose a piece of music in [output format] about [topic]. This piece should embody the [style] style. Consider the typical musical elements and rhythms used in this genre, and ensure the composition reflects the mood and themes commonly associated with [topic]. The music should be structured in a way that's characteristic of [style] music, accommodating variations in melody, harmony, and rhythm that are true to that style.
Topics will include things like "love", "a celebration", or "outer space".
Styles will include things like "brass trio", "video game soundtrack" or "ballad".
I will try to write a single prompt that is accomodating to each format, but I won't go and fix every syntax error that it writes.
For what it's worth, GPT-4 predicts the following probabilities for each format:
ABC Notation: ABC is a well-structured text-based format for musical notation. It's concise and has been used for a variety of tunes, especially in the folk and traditional music community. However, it has its own specific syntax and conventions that the model must get right to produce a valid tune. Given the potential for syntax intricacies and the fact that any mistakes wouldn't be corrected, I'd assign a probability of 0.55 for ABC Notation to achieve the highest overall score.
(Note, Duration) Pairs: This is a straightforward representation, essentially a list of notes and their respective durations. There's less room for syntactic error because of its simplicity. It doesn't encompass the full depth of musical expression that ABC might, but its simplicity is an advantage in a scenario where syntax errors aren't corrected. I'd assign a probability of 0.45 for (Note, Duration) pairs to achieve the highest overall score. | N/A | OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1 | ||
BuUj0eRODkLof3DupGIT | 68IfWq6mtPXZx8BFkbrWqPfNpuG3 | SarM | SM | 1,712,760,209,343 | 1,712,898,290,959 | Will gpt-4-turbo-2024-04-09 overtake Claude 3 Opus in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard? | will-gpt4turbo20240409-overtake-cla | https://manifold.markets/SarM/will-gpt4turbo20240409-overtake-cla | {
"NO": 5256.805657722693,
"YES": 166.78462300524774
} | 0.991312 | 0.783546 | 397.5 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,744.711049 | 0 | true | YES | 1,712,898,290,959 | 0.99 | 14 | 1,712,898,290,959 | 1,712,893,423,158 | 1,712,878,061,982 | [
"llms",
"ai",
"chatbot-arena-leaderboard",
"chatgpt",
"gpt4-speculation"
] | https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard | N/A | 68IfWq6mtPXZx8BFkbrWqPfNpuG3 | null |
|
bOkzuLmeVjBvodjVeCqO | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,678,572,391,213 | 1,685,653,361,115 | Will more Biden classified documents be discovered before June 1? | will-more-biden-classified-document | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-more-biden-classified-document | {
"NO": 110.6788192262607,
"YES": 21466.745665473325
} | 0.001193 | 0.188071 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 21,682.192827 | 0 | true | NO | 1,685,653,361,115 | 0 | 19 | 1,685,648,135,114 | 1,685,648,134,758 | 1,685,592,506,343 | [
"the-life-of-biden",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"classified-documents"
] | Resolves YES if before June 1, any more documents marked as classified are found inappropriately stored in Biden's possession (including his homes, offices, etc), according to reliable media reporting. Otherwise NO.
Note that if they are marked as classified, that counts regardless of whether the documents are currently classified or have since been declassified. | N/A | null | ||
j6DbUJm6G384b3Uu8V7C | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | MetaculusBot | Metaculus Bot | 1,682,707,313,558 | 1,711,562,769,009 | Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026? | will-there-be-a-frontier-ai-lab-out | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-there-be-a-frontier-ai-lab-out | {
"NO": 1426.7179697557117,
"YES": 95.8014927602465
} | 0.9788 | 0.756115 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,712.665667 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,562,769,009 | 0.98 | 11 | 1,711,562,769,009 | 1,711,562,764,814 | -1 | [
"metaculus"
] | From https://metaculus.com/questions/16640/non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026/
Currently the largest model currently known is GPT-4 and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 is estimated by Epoch to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.
We define a "Frontier AI Lab" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of GPT-4 (>2e24 FLOP). As of 2023-04-28, these are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [source]. Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
Currently all four of these AI labs have their primary headquarters in the United States and not in any other countries. (Deepmind was HQ'd in the UK until the merger with Google Brain in April 2023.)
The fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in the US may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in multiple countries. Will this convenient status quo hold? | N/A | 9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2 | ||
tF0Fh1DzfcqR9tVSUo45 | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,132,837,543 | 1,702,310,400,000 | Will Allianz SE close higher december 11th than the close of december 8th? (Daily Market) | will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-0d629ddcfb2a | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-0d629ddcfb2a | {
"NO": 693.9498330290683,
"YES": 160.8362648907856
} | 0.884009 | 0.638519 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 675.671237 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,316,323,261 | 0.85 | 14 | 1,710,222,358,546 | 1,702,310,330,015 | 1,702,316,301,168 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | null |
|
bMlHZjfCjg10OadAXgsi | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | strutheo | chris (strutheo) | 1,712,091,851,896 | 1,713,585,540,000 | Will Manifold's big pivot be announced by the end of April 19th? | will-the-manifold-pivot-be-announce | https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-manifold-pivot-be-announce | {
"NO": 108.25972010654823,
"YES": 11479.666620681746
} | 0.01 | 0.517163 | 1,335 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,849.785054 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,585,841,526 | 0.01 | 109 | 1,713,585,540,000 | 1,713,585,164,369 | 1,713,517,459,135 | [
"manifold-users",
"manifold-business-future",
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",
"metamarkets",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"startups"
] | In Austin's farewell post:
James, Stephen, and the rest of the team have a big pivot in store; it seems like a great bet, but not something that I personally feel drawn towards enacting. And so, now feels like a good time to step out.
James made a response:
Manifold may indeed have been trapped in a local maxima, but not for long! We always have another fresh idea, another trick up our sleeves. The latest secret project for Manifold will be big.
@/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-ad
@/strutheo/will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-announc-523737967640 | N/A | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | null |
|
6oIxURCX6JyELrKbWAzr | GQ1jMmRegdS2EC1qK2QqpA12vE13 | PsyLaris | Psy Laris | 1,698,768,097,551 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdR7HnEegyPkQUEUrGQg_aJuh3Zi8IfeHn8bZlTSVnOSw=s96-c | 1,704,125,126,726 | Will Momo and/or Lucky be featured in another Google Doodle before 2024? | will-momo-andor-lucky-be-featured-i | https://manifold.markets/PsyLaris/will-momo-andor-lucky-be-featured-i | {
"NO": 31.46769428320144,
"YES": 180.00000000000003
} | 0.125937 | 0.451807 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 110 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,125,126,726 | 0.13 | 2 | 1,704,125,128,324 | 1,703,992,908,235 | 1,704,125,118,881 | [
"google-ef2cf716540e",
"fun"
] | For background information on these two cats, all the Google Doodles they've been in, and the lore involving them, see this video: https://youtu.be/lJKczg3vUTo
With Momo and a trick-or-treater in a Lucky costume featuring in Google's Halloween 2023 Doodle, it begs the question, when will they be seen again?
Resolves as YES if any Google Doodle dated between November 1st and December 31st 2023 features either Momo, Lucky, both, or any references thereof. Resolves as NO otherwise. | N/A | GQ1jMmRegdS2EC1qK2QqpA12vE13 | null |
5laPUSPZAJTyJzzsWVIu | TzywAoqjYqfu4CvZRhQdFDtDhQm2 | OzzieGooen | Ozzie Gooen | 1,693,256,579,816 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjAzYoG5RsGcypdfWVucG6EFCn-tfigr3Ubcp4QWA=s96-c | 1,698,675,435,248 | Will the Meta Quest 3 get a rating of 4.5 or higher, on PCMag? | will-the-meta-quest-3-get-a-rating | https://manifold.markets/OzzieGooen/will-the-meta-quest-3-get-a-rating | {
"NO": 215.7096975340666,
"YES": 145.9357976641047
} | 0.57 | 0.472798 | 180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 119.5453 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,675,435,248 | 0.57 | 6 | 1,710,206,718,155 | 1,698,630,576,962 | 1,698,675,449,575 | [
"gaming",
"video-games"
] | They gave the Quest 2 a 4.5.
The Quest 3 should be out in October, so I expect the review to come out around then.
https://www.pcmag.com/reviews/oculus-quest-2
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
MJ8BiNbuEZhcLzgjYYdT | TQYYLJgcmrSn1zKFnPJewowV4CE2 | CarolineWall | Caroline Wall | 1,698,175,880,074 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIChToOpe-cNkLVyfq7x1KpGhc_LI4RZHequBMCYLF7PA=s96-c | 1,698,551,940,000 | Will Roaring Moon be banned from Smogon's OU tier in Pokémon? | will-roaring-moon-be-banned-from-sm | https://manifold.markets/CarolineWall/will-roaring-moon-be-banned-from-sm | {
"NO": 81.24999999999999,
"YES": 46.96428571428572
} | 0.662162 | 0.53116 | 61.25 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,585,309,943 | 0.66 | 1 | 1,698,176,034,828 | 1,698,176,034,536 | -1 | [
"pokemon",
"competitive-gaming",
"gaming",
"video-games",
"smogon"
] | A suspect test was announced for Roaring Moon, and will close on Oct 27 at 11:59pm (GMT-4). The question will resolve "yes" if Roaring Moon is banned from OU as a result of the suspect test, and "no" if it will remain legal. | N/A | null | null |
njKL59FcU0N1okev7bCg | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | DanMan314 | Dan | 1,699,559,365,212 | 1,714,781,465,864 | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia in 2024? | will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o | https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-joe-manchin-run-for-governor-o | {
"NO": 93.0416511854852,
"YES": 1786.0070363151947
} | 0.01 | 0.162407 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,383.70979 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,781,465,864 | 0.01 | 10 | 1,714,781,467,196 | 1,714,781,462,848 | 1,714,781,439,787 | [
"us-politics",
"politics-default"
] | Resolves YES if he ever announces a candidacy.
If by the filing deadline he has not announced, resolves NO. | N/A | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | null |
|
L1oT1TCVGW4ZNJHl1F4T | DAyliplpK4YgjjscpqUFbU8VTE52 | cverhiser | Zucchini | 1,668,821,811,710 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0FzmnecSCGjx9_6z_y12a5x63xe4w_vgxfgkoJfg=s96-c | 1,679,263,200,000 | Will Mikaela Shiffrin win the 2023 World Cup overall title? | will-shiffrin-win-the-2023-world-cu | https://manifold.markets/cverhiser/will-shiffrin-win-the-2023-world-cu | {
"NO": 746.8733954214256,
"YES": 213.61006064458257
} | 0.930228 | 0.792235 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 860.986042 | 0 | true | YES | 1,680,129,130,587 | 0.93 | 10 | 1,679,253,966,713 | 1,679,253,965,514 | 1,675,130,562,601 | [
"sports-default"
] | This will be resolved when the season has been completed and the winner is announced.
Nov 18, 9:42pm: Will Shiffrin win the 2023 World Cup overall title? → Will Mikaela Shiffrin win the 2023 World Cup overall title?
Close date updated to 2023-03-19 6:00 pm | N/A | null | |
dWtwEIEnff7bcVyRCsvW | O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72 | AjayChabra | Ajay | 1,701,550,818,087 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c | 1,701,653,509,331 | NFL Week 13 - 12/3/23 - SF 49ers @ PHI Eagles - Will SF 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey lead the game in rushing yards? | nfl-week-13-12323-sf-49ers-phi-eagl-af407adb60fc | https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-13-12323-sf-49ers-phi-eagl-af407adb60fc | {
"NO": 583.2733930381739,
"YES": 41.144366544229
} | 0.949148 | 0.568336 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 505.27708 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,653,509,331 | 0.95 | 5 | 1,710,206,773,203 | 1,701,649,491,759 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"fantasy-football-nfl",
"nflprops",
"san-francisco-49ers",
"philadelphia-eagles"
] | Week 13 - Sunday 4:25 p.m. - 12/3/23 - San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles.
Will SF 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey lead the game (both teams) in rushing yards?
He has done so in 8/11 games this season.
notes: If CMC doesn't play, this market will N/A. A tie for lead will result in NO. | N/A | null | |
Qa0vMhG4UfPaphADlu6z | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | DAL59 | DAL59 | 1,661,462,817,076 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c | 1,707,195,540,000 | Will I consider the Tencent TV adaptation of the Three Body Problem series to be better than the Netflix one? | will-the-tencent-tv-adaptation-of-t | https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-the-tencent-tv-adaptation-of-t | {
"NO": 129.61154066659432,
"YES": 111.23126943737634
} | 0.545758 | 0.507653 | 120 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 61 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,523,721,318 | 0.55 | 7 | 1,707,195,540,000 | 1,706,513,195,230 | 1,701,629,882,108 | [] | Aug 25, 9:10pm: Will the Tencent TV adaptation of the Three Body Problem series be better than the Netflix one? → Will I consider the Tencent TV adaptation of the Three Body Problem series to be better than the Netflix one?
Both are releasing within the next year.
Aug 25, 9:09pm: This is a personal opinion based question | N/A | wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63 | null |
fMRHX16sAwPqkwm4YW6Q | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,690,997,021,436 | 1,691,085,600,000 | Will the S&P 500 close higher on August 3 than it closed on August 2? | will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-d4783ed56131 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-aug-d4783ed56131 | {
"NO": 926.3120197992437,
"YES": 957.0861369354906
} | 0.46 | 0.468128 | 970 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,975.509377 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,093,569,722 | 0.46 | 49 | 1,691,120,491,560 | 1,691,085,591,669 | 1,691,120,489,017 | [
"stocks",
"stocks-and-crypto-forecasting",
"sp-forecasting-august-d93452445aae",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"
] | Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP at the end of the day.
This market is part of the S&P Forecasting tournament for the month of August (Inspired by Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 1000
3 750
Good luck forecasting!
Note: Keeping this market as similar to how Alex has been running it. Not trying to change what people are enjoying trading on. | N/A | null | null |
|
aonfnjo2LXFnpGIjFCh1 | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,677,853,064,996 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,678,041,358,345 | Will Vaush's video "Is This Viral Men's Self-Help Advice Helpful Or Harmful" reach 60k views or more by 3/09 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-is-this-viral-men | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-is-this-viral-men | {
"NO": 11191.666666666666,
"YES": 3.503962064529332
} | 0.999797 | 0.606548 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,120 | 0 | true | YES | 1,678,041,358,345 | 1 | 3 | 1,710,218,581,934 | 1,678,041,353,130 | -1 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | https://youtu.be/zZJ732kGgXc
If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.
If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. | N/A | null | |
nK6U1MKWFW2K05f7mf89 | HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3 | JulianLees | Julian Lees | 1,696,730,302,528 | 1,697,403,745,860 | Rugby World Cup 2023 quaterfinal winners will have more runs and running metres carried than the losers | rugby-world-cup-2023-quaterfinal-wi-65856f6fe63a | https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/rugby-world-cup-2023-quaterfinal-wi-65856f6fe63a | {
"NO": 107.97379710042289,
"YES": 151.91315721196273
} | 0.444109 | 0.529196 | 140 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 59.754487 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,403,745,860 | 0.44 | 5 | 1,697,403,740,669 | 1,697,402,007,461 | 1,697,403,739,886 | [
"rugby-union",
"2023-rugby-world-cup",
"rugby"
] | Resolves YES if the SUM of all quarterfinal winners:
Number of runs, AND,
Carried metres
is greater than the SUM of all quaterfinal losers.
Note: the sum will be done separately for each component (i.e. runs separate from carried metres) and then each component must be greater for the winners.
Otherwise resolves NO
(i.e. the winners need to have BOTH more runs AND more metres carried than the losers)
Strategic choices, "style of play" and philosophies on the game of Rugby are a constant talking point. It will be interesting to see the facets that win out as the knockout phase of Rugby World Cup 2023 commences.
We've already seen in two of the biggest matchups of the tournament so far:
France's win over New Zealand (104 runs vs 113 runs AND 449m vs 631m), and
Ireland's win over South Africa (93 runs vs 89 runs AND 218m vs 383m)
....that this was NOT the case.
Will the teams that choose to run more AND carry for a greater overall distance manage to alter the low risk/kick-centric game that has prospered so far...? We shall see in the upcoming games.
The resolution will be according to the match centre stats for each quarterfinal on the Rugby World Cup website. Example stats from France vs New Zealand (Match 1): https://www.rugbyworldcup.com/2023/match/pool-a-france-new-zealand#stats
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
O0duYVGNTPBxQ8SWUreJ | jKFmyVeG2gcn01NekfR0sJYHuqt2 | drewski | drewski | 1,697,309,594,744 | 1,701,407,949,022 | Will it rain ☔️ more than 5.85inches in Seattle in November 2023? | will-it-rain-more-than-585inches-in | https://manifold.markets/drewski/will-it-rain-more-than-585inches-in | {
"NO": 126.37989747194652,
"YES": 4416.157263625189
} | 0.010864 | 0.277354 | 448 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,147.243129 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,407,949,022 | 0.01 | 22 | 1,701,407,871,904 | 1,701,407,816,115 | 1,701,407,871,235 | [
"seattle",
"climate",
"weather"
] | ☔️ It's always rainy in Seattle! 🌂 Grab your umbrellas as the rainy season is here!
Historically, the month with the most wet days in Seattle is November.
Seattle's normal rainfall for the month of november is 5.85 inches, as reported at the national weather service forcast office:
National Weather Service - NWS Seattle (noaa.gov)
Resolves yes if the monthly rain will be more than to 5.85 inches as reported by the KSEW weather station here (october 2023 chart linked): National Weather Service - NWS Seattle (noaa.gov). | N/A | null | null |
|
MjdhiXQbiMOTp5XpjnNP | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,701,455,356,915 | 1,701,705,600,000 | Will Allianz SE close higher december 4th than the close of december 1th? (Daily Market) | will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-e98d43c6c361 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-e98d43c6c361 | {
"NO": 123.67236740013102,
"YES": 182.84044452418772
} | 0.279728 | 0.364743 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 285.90808 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,710,383,400 | 0.28 | 6 | 1,710,222,342,086 | 1,701,703,503,879 | 1,701,710,379,274 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | ||
6IGEPnTJR0CCzp6I8YxL | LV9Q8pR237TlPNi8TMYPv90BD723 | AustinGale | Austin Gale | 1,674,590,381,563 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu93pffDv5UnLsb2Lw1wGiiOUw77Oc5IDsUv_jAnmhA=s96-c | 1,682,874,462,959 | Will Lamar Jackson be a Baltimore Raven in the 2023 season? | will-lamar-jackson-be-a-baltimore-r | https://manifold.markets/AustinGale/will-lamar-jackson-be-a-baltimore-r | {
"NO": 857.5510530093062,
"YES": 71.78895984955537
} | 0.958998 | 0.661932 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 947.717718 | 0 | true | YES | 1,682,874,462,959 | 0.96 | 11 | 1,682,652,162,573 | 1,682,652,162,414 | 1,676,212,194,597 | [] | Jan 24, 12:59pm: Will Lamar Jackson be a Baltimore Raven in the 2023 season? → Will Lamar Jackson be a Baltimore Raven in the 2023 season? | N/A | null | null |
Q6NeDz5TkXgrpvZHtII0 | CWwlhIixbParh98J2cv1WbzzXdB2 | causal_agency | causal_agency | 1,692,587,970,950 | 1,701,406,740,000 | Will the UK's global AI safety summit include China? | will-the-uks-global-ai-safety-summi | https://manifold.markets/causal_agency/will-the-uks-global-ai-safety-summi | {
"NO": 2266.021167744269,
"YES": 131.1099317317095
} | 0.979854 | 0.73782 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,338.454724 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,869,758,488 | 0.98 | 19 | 1,700,811,646,963 | 1,699,841,089,454 | 1,700,811,646,424 | [
"ai",
"china",
"ai-risk",
"uk",
"ai-safety"
] | In June 2023, the UK announced that it would host first global summit on AI safety. It is planned to "bring together key countries, leading tech companies and researchers to agree safety measures to evaluate and monitor the most significant risks from AI." A recent post by the Centre for the Governance of AI
advances the view that China should be invited, as an opportunity to ensure that responsible global AI governance includes China. Will China be invited to participate, similar to other participating countries? | N/A | null | null |
|
Vsz4WDFqjrQhQ127Y4kL | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,693,771,365,715 | 1,694,314,411,709 | Will Justin Tafa beat Austen Lane at UFC 293? | will-justin-tafa-beat-austen-lane-a | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-justin-tafa-beat-austen-lane-a | {
"NO": 3284.3184734124634,
"YES": 10.252312011285474
} | 0.997949 | 0.602948 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,122.717357 | 0 | true | YES | 1,694,314,411,709 | 1 | 4 | 1,694,313,869,995 | 1,694,313,672,315 | 1,694,313,869,422 | [
"combat-sports",
"fighting",
"sports-default",
"ufc-293",
"ufc",
"mma"
] | Justin Tafa and Austen Lane are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia.
If Justin Tafa wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Austen Lane wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A. | N/A | null | null |
|
UNLbcYfSuu5E86MRMZ5P | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | PunishedFurry | Punished Furry | 1,712,021,726,548 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c | 1,714,546,740,000 | Will Vaush's main youtube channel reach 451k subs in April 2024? | will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-re-35585bdb9254 | https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-re-35585bdb9254 | {
"NO": 66.1283456988067,
"YES": 3637.3401493808233
} | 0.01 | 0.357161 | 300 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,453.015312 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,546,894,767 | 0.01 | 10 | 1,714,546,903,346 | 1,714,544,848,809 | 1,714,546,901,211 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush",
"youtube",
"politics-default"
] | Will the bleeding continue or will it stop?
Currently at 449k, last 1k sub loss was on 3/27/24
[image]https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_
Related Markets:
[markets] | N/A | foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2 | null |
iv1J4kqBcsFs2ClRHKaS | TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2 | BRTD | BRTD | 1,691,425,092,580 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c | 1,701,842,340,000 | Will Jack Smith be TIME magazine's 2023 Person of the Year? | will-jack-smith-be-time-magazines-2 | https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-jack-smith-be-time-magazines-2 | {
"NO": 795.5619040603561,
"YES": 1208.3253693929087
} | 0.074696 | 0.109217 | 890 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 28,766.589369 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,880,059,866 | 0.07 | 47 | 1,701,834,057,891 | 1,701,834,057,660 | 1,701,718,006,609 | [
"media-companies"
] | For clarification, if a group is collectively awarded it, and Jack Smith is specifically mentioned as part of that group, this shall resolve YES.
| N/A | null | null |
rcTGENFcHBWvxQI98li7 | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,573,534,536 | 1,702,656,000,000 | Will Deutsche Telekom close higher december 15th than the close of december 14th? (Daily Market) | will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-b32d546b5cd9 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-b32d546b5cd9 | {
"NO": 34.39204094374608,
"YES": 396.6633175300688
} | 0.07973 | 0.49981 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 421.855014 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,665,418,611 | 0.08 | 5 | 1,710,222,357,436 | 1,702,654,452,519 | 1,702,665,413,843 | [
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | ||
zujNwXKMiOPTyV6e1Fbx | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,026,170,578 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,704,063,540,000 | 2023: Will Elton John still be standing? | 2023-will-elton-john-still-be-stand | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2023-will-elton-john-still-be-stand | {
"NO": 2587.203097894859,
"YES": 272.4087517776965
} | 0.982332 | 0.854105 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,632.074756 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,146,569,191 | 0.98 | 22 | 1,704,146,569,418 | 1,704,060,246,748 | 1,673,172,830,490 | [
"entertainment",
"death-markets",
"2023",
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"tomeks-specials",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Will resolve to YES if Elton John is alive through 2023.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZHwVBirqD2s) | N/A | uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2 | |
URPg98yLfN5yjxCd5kYn | uRLBoyv6dUa1usD5rEFlr46OorF3 | Boklam | Boklam | 1,667,097,864,046 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3ibnjA23Hs3sitZ0cbnPDtIZRleyLSrM_fYI6l=s96-c | 1,669,701,540,000 | Will at least 20 unique traders contribute to the 40-60 wiggliness of this market? | will-at-least-20-unique-traders-con | https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-at-least-20-unique-traders-con | {
"NO": 112.39680015954133,
"YES": 1170.3127456145774
} | 0.074202 | 0.454905 | 340 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,024.345047 | 0 | true | NO | 1,670,206,301,450 | 0.074202 | 16 | 1,670,206,353,004 | 1,669,697,791,795 | 1,670,206,349,573 | [
"wiggly"
] | I want to see this market "wiggle" between 40 (or below) and 60 (or above), at least 10 times total.
The first time this market goes to 60 or above, or to 40 or below, counts as a "half-wiggle". If the market goes to 60 or above, then the next time it goes to 40 or below counts as a "half-wiggle"; if it goes to 40 or below, then the next time it goes to 60 or above counts as a "half-wiggle".
Each "half-wiggle" is caused by a trader -- the trader whose trade made the market cross the threshold.
This market resolves to YES if 20 unique traders cause half-wiggles.
(I will use the rounded-off percentages I see under "Trades" to assess "40 or below" and "60 or above". Also, happy to clarify if my description was confusing...)
This market is a modification of my previous wiggle market. The previous market allowed one trader to create 10 wiggles and then claim the reward, so I'm disallowing that.
https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-this-market-wiggle-4060-at-lea
This is also a cousin to @IsaacKing 's various "how many traders will this attract" markets.
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-this-market-have-50-unique-tra
| N/A | null | |
Eiyz04Y9ZuvGXXtLa4OJ | Fucl2ni5TSaOVRhYtr579l5dv9f2 | Raysonries | Raysonries | 1,705,897,892,681 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJqxTtmHjMtSwHCRzkd_4G2Wk6jtumN-4ZyNaNuVWsmw6o=s96-c | 1,708,488,738,773 | Will the release of PalWorld force innovation out of Pokémon games? | will-the-release-of-palworld-force | https://manifold.markets/Raysonries/will-the-release-of-palworld-force | {
"NO": 556.5421944605292,
"YES": 653.9391289478656
} | 0.45 | 0.490151 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,670.374995 | 0 | true | YES | 1,708,488,738,773 | 0.45 | 32 | 1,708,498,151,481 | 1,708,483,478,635 | 1,708,498,151,015 | [
"innovation",
"gaming",
"pokemon"
] | Given the overwhelming support PalWorld is receiving, will this new type of game in their genre threaten The Pokémon Company and force them to make more polished games? This is without thinking about whether Nintendo will try to pursue legal action, as regardless of that decision, this new take on the formula has proven a success. Resolved with results of https://manifold.markets/pkpr/will-palworld-be-dead-in-2-weeks?r=UmF5c29ucmllcw
Plus measuring social media impressions, sales metrics, etc. over the course of the following 2 weeks. If conversation for the game as dropped and stagnated by then, or the game has sold enough copies to justify otherwise, the question will be resolved with “No”
Edit: I resolved the question based on the following facts
Pokemon Scarlet and Violet had sold 23.23 million copies in November 2023, one year after its release
PalWorld had sold* 19 million copies in just 12 days after its launch on January 19 *(12 million on steam, 7 million on Xbox. As the game is free on game-pass, accurate sales are difficult to determine)
PalWorld has the second highest consecutive player count of all time on steam, at 2,101,535 all time peak, surpassing CSGO2, but below PubG
A talent agency in Japan, Tokyo Sports, asked their talent to not discuss PalWorld in order to avoid offending The Pokemon Company in consideration to future collaborations
Given this, I believe my threshold of healthy competition has been met. While the active player count cannot compare to the first couple of weeks, the game is maintaining a steady player count each day. The future of PalWorld looks promising, and while Pokemon will most likely continue to reign as kings in this genre, they’re definitely getting a run for their money. | N/A | Fucl2ni5TSaOVRhYtr579l5dv9f2 | |
xkF0EtiVQc8yXeeuV3DZ | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,703,030,048,372 | 1,703,098,800,000 | Will the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) close higher on Wed. December 20th than on Tue. December 19th? {DAILY} | will-the-ishares-semiconductor-etf-d6c51961489e | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-ishares-semiconductor-etf-d6c51961489e | {
"NO": 102.14330970185472,
"YES": 591.5543197106724
} | 0.060442 | 0.271436 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 932.081044 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,111,008,772 | 0.06 | 9 | 1,703,110,997,169 | 1,703,098,061,212 | 1,703,110,996,464 | [
"finance",
"soxx",
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"nasdaq",
"sccsq4"
] | iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX)
SOXX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 2pm (7pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close :
[image]DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET OR SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
SI5kf3FTomeF7OWe11BL | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,699,491,345,176 | 1,701,371,700,000 | Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Thu. November 30th than it closed on Wed. November 29th? {DAILY} | will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-b052dd76a4ac | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-b052dd76a4ac | {
"NO": 264.9876735717601,
"YES": 98.97426437410573
} | 0.821877 | 0.632811 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 264.00935 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,384,537,404 | 0.82 | 7 | 1,701,384,534,500 | 1,701,367,294,767 | 1,701,384,532,311 | [
"economics-default",
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.
Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)
RELATED VIX MARKETS
Previous Close :
[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
WEEKLY MARKET
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-6b200a4f1a5b) | N/A | null | null |
|
ge1PQfLmqmuRLCmMkAlW | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,704,145,095,074 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,711,138,383,370 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-9d0547d47024 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-9d0547d47024 | {
"NO": 22.93279433824117,
"YES": 5350.979001342432
} | 0.00311 | 0.421304 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 33,483.825588 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,138,383,370 | 0 | 22 | 1,711,138,455,901 | 1,711,137,933,568 | 1,711,138,448,696 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
dzd4uL7tEwYly56aAp9n | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | a | arae | 1,673,287,087,707 | 1,703,968,533,617 | The US will not meet its target for refugee admissions this fiscal year | the-us-will-not-meet-its-target-for | https://manifold.markets/a/the-us-will-not-meet-its-target-for | {
"NO": 4395.952510503703,
"YES": 81.82651182875448
} | 0.99444 | 0.768998 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,762.008785 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,968,533,617 | 0.99 | 13 | 1,703,968,534,309 | 1,703,958,787,878 | 1,703,958,404,165 | [
"future-perfect-2023",
"us-politics",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it an 80% probability.
President Biden has set the refugee admissions target at 125,000 for fiscal year 2023 — the same level as in 2022. I think the US will fail to hit that target for the same reasons it failed last year (when it admitted fewer than 20,000 refugees). Chief among them: The Trump administration gutted America’s resettlement infrastructure, and it still hasn’t fully recovered. Under Biden, there have been efforts to restaff the government agencies that do resettlement and reopen the offices that had been shuttered, but advocates say the rebuild has been too slow. There just doesn’t seem to be enough political will to make it a priority.
You might be wondering: What about all the Afghans, Ukrainians, and Venezuelans that the US has welcomed? Well, the thing is, those who came to the US via the legal process known as humanitarian parole only get stays of two years. They don’t count toward the number of refugees resettled as refugees are given a path to permanent residency. I hope the US will grant full refugee status to the full 125,000 it’s targeting for 2023, but sadly, I doubt that will happen.
(Vox)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ZacharyGoldstein/how-many-i134a-declaration-of-finan)Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year. | N/A | 9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2 | ||
S4VcPOHQb8tcTvCJQ96r | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | JoshuaB | Joshua | 1,686,767,457,790 | 1,705,369,361,958 | Will Donald Trump end his Presidential Bid before the 2024 Iowa Caucus? | will-donald-trump-end-his-president | https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-donald-trump-end-his-president | {
"NO": 68.14528441083968,
"YES": 1590.7903021574061
} | 0.006684 | 0.135755 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,708.33533 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,369,361,958 | 0.01 | 6 | 1,705,369,382,572 | 1,705,361,739,226 | 1,705,369,380,852 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"us-politics",
"politics-default",
"2024-republican-primaries",
"donald-trump",
"2024-gop-primaries"
] | See: https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/06/14/scaramucci-donald-trump-stressed-2024-drop-out/70320680007/
[link preview]Resolves YES if Trump drops out of the race for the 2024 GOP Nomination before the Iowa Caucus. Resolves NO otherwise.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tripping/will-donald-trump-suspend-his-presi) | N/A | 1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2 | null |
|
oeIf0S3Q0sSij9ncL1sL | 4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3 | Tripping | Tripping | 1,678,741,124,611 | 1,697,417,663,358 | Will France win the 2023 Rugby World Cup? | will-france-win-the-2023-rugby-worl | https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-france-win-the-2023-rugby-worl | {
"NO": 227.29527809359564,
"YES": 33170.57922831705
} | 0.001453 | 0.175201 | 650 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 44,481.372619 | 0 | true | NO | 1,697,417,663,358 | 0 | 37 | 1,697,413,395,550 | 1,697,413,395,270 | 1,697,407,318,201 | [
"sports-default",
"rugby-union",
"2023-rugby-world-cup"
] | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup | N/A | null | ||
KobpDv4UjwrOBecVTEGu | tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1 | Arch1e | Archie | 1,696,800,528,958 | 1,698,002,676,699 | [2023 Formula 1 Season] Will both McLaren drivers beat Sergio Perez at the US Grand Prix? | 2023-formula-1-season-will-both-mcl | https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2023-formula-1-season-will-both-mcl | {
"NO": 0.771113393804512,
"YES": 1371.105570333647
} | 0.000861 | 0.605189 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,750.164245 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,002,676,699 | 0 | 7 | 1,698,002,569,373 | 1,698,002,561,716 | 1,698,002,568,682 | [
"formula-1",
"motorsports"
] | [United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA]
Resolves YES if both McLaren cars (Norris, Piastri, or a reserve) finish ahead of Perez in the Sunday race at COTA.
Resolves N/A if one of the McLaren cars is unable to start the race, or Perez is unable to race
(This is for the Sunday race, not the sprint) | N/A | null | null |
|
RJ31o9AYLWtRKnfZtpCQ | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,707,544,368,693 | 1,707,795,000,000 | 🏒Will the Philadelphia Flyers beat Arizona Coyotes on Feb 12? | will-the-philadelphia-flyers-beat-a | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-philadelphia-flyers-beat-a | {
"NO": 10745.587325898203,
"YES": 106.9746547569911
} | 0.99767 | 0.809999 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,283.023394 | 0 | true | YES | 1,707,798,478,517 | 1 | 21 | 1,707,798,479,177 | 1,707,794,267,327 | 1,707,798,468,144 | [
"philadelphia-flyers",
"arizona-coyotes-e666f0c27fad",
"yuna-league-beta",
"hockey",
"sports-betting",
"nhl",
"entertainment",
"sports-default",
"fun",
"technology-default"
] | Philadelphia Flyers vs Arizona Coyotes @6pm CST
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Philadelphia Flyers win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
W7IXHQWMrRo3QKKMAT2w | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,690,153,368,316 | 1,690,222,500,000 | Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on July 24th than it closed on July 21st? | will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-dd97ea24dfe9 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-dd97ea24dfe9 | {
"NO": 581.5188692788076,
"YES": 99.66305600780157
} | 0.88 | 0.556898 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 914.171401 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,229,991,810 | 0.88 | 11 | 1,690,229,989,831 | 1,690,221,292,608 | 1,690,229,986,841 | [
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"finance"
] | RUT closes at 4pm EDT (15 minute delay).
Predictions close at 2:15pm EDT.
Resolves YES or NO : According to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL at the end of the trading day.
Resolves No : If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
[link preview]If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-04dc72179260)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-9ed126c49b62)(https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-669130508c9d)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-14126695b411)I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
LEADERBOARD STATS & PRIZES | N/A | null | null |
|
nzKgbEIpMmO4GNMKQKs5 | HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433 | Conflux | Conflux | 1,653,860,383,314 | 1,668,137,914,904 | Will Anna Eshoo be reelected to the House of Representatives? | will-anna-eshoo-be-reelected-to-the | https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-anna-eshoo-be-reelected-to-the | {
"NO": 550.8170749586368,
"YES": 78.4185552566548
} | 0.964319 | 0.793715 | 120.634184 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 786.864938 | 0 | true | YES | 1,668,137,914,904 | 0.964319 | 9 | 1,668,137,929,410 | 1,668,055,083,484 | 1,668,137,923,819 | [
"politics-default",
"us-2022-elections"
] | Pretty straightforward - this question resolves to YES if Anna Eshoo is reelected to the House of Representatives in 2022, and NO if she loses or does not run. | N/A | null | null |
|
5FxjOTuiHv4RiKRXtPEs | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | KevinBurke | Kevin Burke | 1,695,227,911,122 | 1,701,009,392,688 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-2af7f5ffe6b4 | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-2af7f5ffe6b4 | {
"NO": 8465.059607768246,
"YES": 340.4726382303277
} | 0.99196 | 0.832278 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 19,151.593921 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,009,392,688 | 0.99 | 37 | 1,701,009,388,684 | 1,701,009,388,563 | -1 | [
"formula-1"
] | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. | N/A | null | null |
|
IWYxvzrDC5Ogi5oLywix | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,691,207,606,543 | 1,691,794,800,000 | Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher August 11th Than August 10th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-c26e2325d0dc | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-c26e2325d0dc | {
"NO": 163.65754191394544,
"YES": 647.3714264194393
} | 0.088867 | 0.278403 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,844.755437 | 0 | true | NO | 1,691,799,256,763 | 0.09 | 13 | 1,691,799,255,040 | 1,691,793,041,115 | 1,691,799,252,707 | [
"crypto-speculation",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"economics-default",
"finance"
] | ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.
Predictions close 1 hours prior.
August 10th Close Value:
[image]Resolves according to the display at
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | null | null |
|
TEmbnEtq8LqBmlvyDURP | QKZ2l1Nws1WUwxNQLVxdnz4NxSf1 | OrbitNY | OrbitNY | 1,710,531,910,315 | 1,714,738,381,033 | Will Kanye West release Vultures 2 on May 3rd? | will-kanye-west-release-vultures-2-b8225a325f79 | https://manifold.markets/OrbitNY/will-kanye-west-release-vultures-2-b8225a325f79 | {
"NO": 122.87789551891328,
"YES": 288.8346856379206
} | 0.208207 | 0.381992 | 180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 246 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,738,381,033 | 0.21 | 6 | 1,714,738,381,033 | 1,714,720,059,772 | 1,710,532,048,713 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"kanye"
] | Dear God almighty here we go again.
On March 15th, it was reported by several news sources (including XXL, Kurrco, and DramaAlert take it as you will) that Vultures 2 by Kanye West would release on May 3rd.
The information was leaked by Kanye to a Baby Keem fan account in Instagram DM’s.
Question will resolve to Yes if “Vultures 2” is available to listen to on any music streaming platform and/or yeezy.com, Question will resolve to No if it does not.
I will NOT be participating in this question.
Sources:
https://x.com/xxl/status/1768718625886625822?s=46
https://x.com/kurrco/status/1768710095896981724?s=46
https://x.com/dramaalert/status/1768721803071922253?s=46
(Original screenshots and videos can be found on the Instagram account, @babykeem.memes, however the screen-recording proof is available on their story, which is only available for 24 hours as of the posting of this question.)
| N/A | QKZ2l1Nws1WUwxNQLVxdnz4NxSf1 | null |
|
za7Fe7vgFmIEaGWyRBhw | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,015,512,383 | 1,703,185,200,000 | [Daily] Will AMZN close higher on December 21 than it closed on December 20? | daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec-2426a00182ec | https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec-2426a00182ec | {
"NO": 328.9191218928684,
"YES": 138.12763102769696
} | 0.849201 | 0.70281 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 397.485991 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,222,316,783 | 0.85 | 8 | 1,703,222,312,751 | 1,703,183,689,259 | 1,703,222,311,901 | [
"economics-default",
"stocks",
"hawsbollah",
"finance",
"sccsq4"
] | This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
96ylqD35ei4edZjikKE2 | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,692,169,107,386 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,703,168,731,281 | Transfermarkt ⚽ Will Kylian Mbappe's next Market Value exceed €180.00m? | transfermarkt-will-kylian-mbappes-n | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/transfermarkt-will-kylian-mbappes-n | {
"NO": 44.85119050050355,
"YES": 804.6163852727163
} | 0.051945 | 0.495697 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 941.90401 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,168,731,281 | 0.05 | 12 | 1,703,168,724,976 | 1,703,146,473,795 | 1,703,168,724,593 | [
"football-transfers",
"-transfermarkets",
"soccer",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Kylian Mbappé Lottin (born 20 December 1998) is a French professional footballer who plays as a forward for Ligue 1 club Paris Saint-Germain and captains the France national team. Regarded as one of the best players in the world, he is renowned for his dribbling abilities, exceptional speed, and finishing.
His ⚽ Market Value is currently (last update: Jun 27,2023) estimated by Transfermarkt at €180m.
[image]
Will the next Transfermarkt's update for Mbappe estimate his Market Value greater than €180,000,000 ?
This market will resolve after the next MV for this player is published.
[image]
Interested? CHECK OTHER ⚽ TRANSFERMARKETS | N/A | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | |
t9ANhdBiuGO8RKB3N2Am | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,692,829,872,777 | 1,709,567,212,867 | Will any Democrat Secretary of State refuse to list Trump on the ballot in 2024 general election? | will-any-democrat-secretary-of-stat | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-any-democrat-secretary-of-stat | {
"NO": 110.38673151643616,
"YES": 3371.996115437766
} | 0.03101 | 0.494333 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,732.745221 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,567,212,867 | 0.03 | 35 | 1,709,567,213,600 | 1,709,567,203,099 | 1,709,567,030,127 | [
"politics-default",
"magaland",
"donald-trump",
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"us-politics"
] | The prevailing legal theory at the moment is that Trump is automatically disqualified by Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. This can apparently be unilaterally imposed by the Secretary of State in any individual state. This resolves YES if any DEMOCRAT Secretary of State makes a choice to enforce this constitutional provision, regardless of the outcome of subsequent legal challenges.
[image] | N/A | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | ||
KDg9j91aybu3U3toAbYX | YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23 | jack | Jack | 1,665,157,203,761 | 1,667,275,140,000 | Will Ukraine control Kherson city center by October 31, 2022? | will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-f684d91ff07d | https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-f684d91ff07d | {
"NO": 397.23578603121246,
"YES": 18203.4210038399
} | 0.005164 | 0.192147 | 890 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 25,905.095512 | 0 | true | NO | 1,667,306,547,421 | 0.005164 | 47 | 1,667,298,029,589 | 1,667,272,117,168 | 1,667,298,027,576 | [
"ukraine",
"world-default",
"wars",
"ukraine-counteroffensive",
"ukrainerussia-war"
] | Because control over a city can be difficult to resolve, this question resolves based on control of Svobody Square in central Kherson, where the Kherson Regional Administration building is located.
Resolves YES if Ukraine controls Svobody Square in central Kherson starting by the deadline in the question title, for a period of at least 7 consecutive days, according to reporting by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise resolves NO. Times will be in the local timezone in Ukraine.
(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Questions for different dates
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-f684d91ff07d/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-ca4ba43083d9/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c)Related questions
(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher/when-will-ukraine-regain-control-of/will-ukraine-recapture-the-city-of/will-the-ukraine-take-back-kherson) | N/A | null | null |
|
6vyJI01zki3cZUSKbx07 | ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2 | yaboi69 | yaboi69 | 1,676,368,123,210 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrkhc2TKCy7PIjvAR4cY1PaG4FZxwtS9pTHlgxh=s96-c | 1,704,063,540,000 | Amazon will spend $10 billion+ on acquisitions in the health and wellness sector in 2023 | amazon-will-spend-10-billion-on-acq | https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/amazon-will-spend-10-billion-on-acq | {
"NO": 138.81483019906776,
"YES": 1007.6518328435667
} | 0.067892 | 0.345858 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 876.656478 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,602,618,026 | 0.07 | 13 | 1,704,602,618,226 | 1,704,055,398,565 | 1,704,602,612,447 | [
"allin-podcast-2023-predictions",
"allin-podcast",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves YES if Amazon acquires at least one company in the health and wellness sector, for $10 billion or more in total, before the end of 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.
Sources for verification can include mainstream media reports, company announcements, and quotes from officials. The health and wellness sector includes companies involved in healthcare, fitness, nutrition, and related fields. The acquisition can be made by Amazon itself, or a subsidiary company. If the purchase price is not disclosed, the question will be evaluated based on the best available estimates.
$10 billion is a proxy for the scale of companies like Ro, Hims & Hers Health, Peloton Interactive, or Whoop, taking into account that the $4B One Medical purchase was described as small in the quote below.
Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”
Jason Calacanis: “[Biggest business deal in 2023.] For me the prediction is Amazon's three legged stool grows into a sturdy chair with a fourth pillar. For those folks who are not familiar with how Amazon has built their businesses, there are three pillars in their stool. E-commerce, obviously, when you buy stuff, Prime memberships, which is kind of considered a separate revenue stream, and of course, AWS cloud computing. I think the fourth is going to be this continuation of following the health stream, not advertising because that's not a consumer-based product. That's just a way they make money. Health is going to be a big one for them. They obviously acquired One Medical, which was a small purchase. I think they're going to buy Roman, Hims, they could buy Peloton, they could buy Whoop, and they're going to go all in on health.” | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | |
FSmu3O8oC0vA1RTEr8gM | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,697,916,531,448 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,698,005,593,163 | Will the New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-new-york-giants-beat-the-w | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-new-york-giants-beat-the-w | {
"NO": 4697.2917164030205,
"YES": 15.53678595906581
} | 0.996939 | 0.518575 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,175.461263 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,005,606,092 | 1 | 22 | 1,698,005,594,140 | 1,698,005,594,012 | -1 | [
"nfl",
"football",
"sports-default",
"washington-commanders",
"new-york-giants"
] | Yes - Giants win
No - Commanders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | null | null |
1h2OBIYVS5xAQP4jDkko | rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2 | cos | cos | 1,662,180,923,947 | 1,662,957,210,663 | Will Nomic Garden feature dynamic elements in September? | will-nomic-garden-feature-dynamic-e | https://manifold.markets/cos/will-nomic-garden-feature-dynamic-e | {
"NO": 1399.9478235150027,
"YES": 7.1431233593348225
} | 0.994923 | 0.5 | 287.952428 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,282.128877 | 0 | true | YES | 1,662,957,210,663 | 0.961531 | 5 | 1,662,957,197,500 | 1,662,957,196,149 | 1,662,946,811,345 | [
"nomic-garden",
"nomic"
] | This question resolves "YES" if the website available at nomic.garden features one or more dynamic elements by the end of the month. Concrete examples of "dynamic elements" include (but are not limited to) embedded representations of markets on Manifold, automatically updated participation statistics, or a discussion platform of some sort.
This question resolves "NO" if the website available at nomic.garden fails to include one or more dynamic elements by the end of the month.
This question resolves "N/A" or "PROB" if there is significant dispute about the appropriate resolution. (I will likely poll bettors approval-style if this is the case.) | N/A | null | null |
|
JKbsUChiLAGwy7rbnYmK | ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2 | Predictor | Predictor 🔥 | 1,652,317,421,376 | 1,652,382,000,000 | Will the Tesla (TSLA) stock price close over $720 on May 12, 2022? | will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-c4fef73a030d | https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-tesla-tsla-stock-price-clo-c4fef73a030d | {
"NO": 1018.2536951110743,
"YES": 435.2511480189597
} | 0.670893 | 0.46563 | 602.40059 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,952.28902 | 0 | true | YES | 1,652,386,232,502 | 0.670893 | 19 | 1,652,386,511,870 | 1,652,380,836,701 | 1,652,386,510,115 | [
"wall-street-bets",
"economics-default"
] | This market resolves YES if TSLA stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.
Trading closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.
This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.
Reference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history?p=TSLA | N/A | null | null |
|
7nAp1vOwmXzMufCYtd4z | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,679,366,829,191 | 1,695,441,540,000 | Will Manifold Markets have a Wikipedia page before the end of summer? | will-manifold-markets-have-a-wikipe-1dc80a261304 | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-manifold-markets-have-a-wikipe-1dc80a261304 | {
"NO": 813.8562900841587,
"YES": 14486.627763162078
} | 0.017898 | 0.244936 | 1,790 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 27,465.715644 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,592,217,175 | 0.02 | 92 | 1,695,441,515,680 | 1,695,441,515,359 | 1,694,126,154,013 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-business-future"
] | Resolves YES if Manifold Markets has a Wikipedia page before September 23.
EDIT: To be more specific these are the criteria that I will use (thanks to
@XComhghall for suggestions):
Draft, articles for deletion and redirects do not count as a 'Wikipedia page' in this market.
If the article goes through the guided draft and review process, and it gets approved, I will resolve the market YES if the page is still there after a week (has to be approved before September 23).
If the article goes through the guided draft and review process, it gets approved before September 23, but someone flags it for deletion within a week of it getting approved, I will wait until the Wikipedia admins decide to delete (resolving NO) or accept the article (YES), independently of how much time it takes for the admins to arrive at a conclusion.
If someone makes a non-draft page, then I would only resolve YES, after someone else (I can do it if you notify me that the page is up) nominates the article for deletion, and the Wikipedia admins accept the page BEFORE September 23. | N/A | null | ||
mNI8qOxpfMu0z0i7pvwy | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | mirrorbot | Mirror Bot | 1,698,673,805,859 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0 | 1,711,061,753,104 | [Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by March 20, 2024? | kalshi-will-the-federal-reserve-cut-1e31d4125a7b | https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/kalshi-will-the-federal-reserve-cut-1e31d4125a7b | {
"NO": 144.83683353286278,
"YES": 18940.95142920168
} | 0.002812 | 0.269399 | 630 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 37,203.626208 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,061,753,104 | -1 | 36 | 1,711,061,753,104 | 1,711,058,637,018 | 1,711,058,596,280 | [
"kalshi"
] | Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by March 20, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and March 20, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues. | N/A | PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2 | null |
6ucrnbvRs7cM07muQTuP | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,705,503,876,906 | 1,705,720,500,000 | Will the Detroit Red Wings beat Carolina Hurricanes on Jan 19? | will-the-detroit-red-wings-beat-car | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-detroit-red-wings-beat-car | {
"NO": 31.932561423933407,
"YES": 6721.441468691785
} | 0.002059 | 0.302758 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,905.484939 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,727,084,944 | 0 | 11 | 1,705,727,085,256 | 1,705,718,427,381 | -1 | [
"nhl",
"hockey",
"sports-default",
"carolina-hurricanes",
"detroit-red-wings",
"ice-hockey",
"yuna-league-beta"
] | Detroit Red Wings vs Carolina Hurricanes @6pm CST
Prediction Market | Overtime Market | Shootout Market
Game start at 6:00pm CST.
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Detroit Red Wings win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image] | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
cg2kxQFqTU2VFICg4Lxl | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,673,358,408,282 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,704,067,140,000 | International affairs 2023: No new countries join the European Union? | international-affairs-2023-no-new-c | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/international-affairs-2023-no-new-c | {
"NO": 1247.3181070787923,
"YES": 194.15413443894192
} | 0.976521 | 0.866202 | 270 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,207.947814 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,213,974,613 | 0.98 | 15 | 1,704,213,974,809 | 1,704,015,984,953 | 1,696,023,136,507 | [
"2023-matt-yglesias-predictions",
"europe",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
[image]
| N/A | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 |