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QoLzzulS3X2iRiFTMcnD | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,674,892,093,365 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,675,497,540,000 | Will Destiny's video debating about the black community get 250k views in 7 days? | will-destinys-video-debating-about | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-debating-about | {
"NO": 59.45821918020856,
"YES": 950.5934772738362
} | 0.033227 | 0.354623 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,243.895558 | 0 | true | NO | 1,675,521,186,910 | 0.03 | 11 | 1,710,218,560,383 | 1,675,496,009,158 | -1 | [
"destinygg"
] | https://youtu.be/sCmNbm0K_eI | N/A | null | null |
zeYdTlwDAQFiGI2aRFqh | ZqQWFwIip5ga2Revf9WnaWU5Kmi2 | JohnSmith9249 | John Smith | 1,680,382,275,700 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaZWPY3RAw9PrsWEDQbimUhXFEJ81Ev0lgj_jdJ=s96-c | 1,684,133,940,000 | Will Guinea-Bissau delay the June 4th legislative elections? | will-guineabissau-delay-the-june-4t | https://manifold.markets/JohnSmith9249/will-guineabissau-delay-the-june-4t | {
"NO": 90.00000000000001,
"YES": 55.714285714285715
} | 0.662162 | 0.548193 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 20 | 0 | true | NO | 1,685,899,980,090 | 0.66 | 2 | 1,680,382,866,827 | 1,680,382,865,696 | -1 | [
"election-forecast-comparison",
"elections",
"elections-world",
"politics-default"
] | President Umaro Sissoco Embalo called for snap parliamentary elections in 2022, over the dissent of opposition parties. The election has been postponed multiple times. Elections must be held by December 2024. Learn more here: https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/guinea-bissau-to-postpone-snap-elections/. This market will resolve when Guinea-Bissau's electoral commission either announces a postponement of the June 4th legislative elections or the election is conducted on June 4th. | N/A | null | |
0pPerDjnz53MBDGNErng | 7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2 | KevinBurke | Kevin Burke | 1,695,227,934,767 | 1,701,009,873,735 | Will Daniel Ricciardo finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? | will-daniel-ricciardo-finish-in-the-b05c4dd904dc | https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-daniel-ricciardo-finish-in-the-b05c4dd904dc | {
"NO": 19.802671499654025,
"YES": 9454.809443199312
} | 0.001246 | 0.373245 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,635.757979 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,009,873,735 | 0 | 12 | 1,701,009,870,498 | 1,701,009,870,345 | -1 | [
"formula-1"
] | A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. | N/A | null | null |
|
EfPYHP5dBW96qNkM2RtY | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,701,265,660,087 | 1,702,941,246,692 | Will "Wonka" (2023) gross >$35M on its opening weekend? | will-wonka-2023-gross-35m-on-its-op | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-wonka-2023-gross-35m-on-its-op | {
"NO": 3362.66935232091,
"YES": 34.131155325135296
} | 0.993157 | 0.595652 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,759.198623 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,941,246,692 | 0.99 | 12 | 1,702,941,177,648 | 1,702,873,556,319 | 1,702,941,175,921 | [
"movies",
"television-film",
"boxoffice",
"timothee-chalamet",
"wonka"
] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Wonka" (2023) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2942927617/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
Typically the "Domestic Opening" on BoxOfficeMojo includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews—regardless, I will use whatever number is listed.
For a concrete example of the number I will cite, the "Domestic Opening" listed for "Oppenheimer" was $82,455,420.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image] | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
krNkHR55KZUACRhfVyBM | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,690,383,497,172 | 1,690,471,800,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 27th July than it closed on 26th July? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-b5ab122eab10 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-b5ab122eab10 | {
"NO": 2932.2529868311835,
"YES": 140.9419743197292
} | 0.988671 | 0.807489 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,474.458389 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,505,612,134 | 0.99 | 15 | 1,710,462,514,104 | 1,690,471,230,249 | 1,690,383,651,509 | [
"stocks",
"uk",
"ftse-100",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"short-fuse"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 27th July than it did on Wednesday 26th July?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
There are also some markets on what the FTSE 100 will do in the month of July:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-79f76b84a731
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-july-with
And some longer term markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | null | null |
|
PCEXPluJRpD9CK7v6px4 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,652,484,136 | 1,699,743,600,000 | Will DOT close higher on November 11 than it closed on November 10? | will-dot-close-higher-on-november-1-720c5a199915 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-november-1-720c5a199915 | {
"NO": 1114.0675449337602,
"YES": 126.66083916481409
} | 0.9607 | 0.735397 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,130.419882 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,751,853,095 | 0.96 | 13 | 1,699,751,849,031 | 1,699,743,229,556 | 1,699,751,848,361 | [
"crypto-prices",
"economics-default",
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel
Previous Close: $5.30
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | null | null |
|
33X3KKBbPUi3sBget6bc | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | SG | SG | 1,661,579,469,518 | 1,661,791,319,405 | Will the second episode of House of the Dragon have a higher score on imdb than the first? | will-the-second-episode-of-house-of | https://manifold.markets/SG/will-the-second-episode-of-house-of | {
"NO": 260.99260639942906,
"YES": 38.31526163885195
} | 0.871987 | 0.5 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 501.426337 | 0 | true | YES | 1,661,791,319,405 | 0.871987 | 17 | 1,661,782,283,008 | 1,661,782,281,695 | 1,661,775,594,351 | [
"house-of-the-dragon",
"entertainment"
] | House of the Dragon is HBO's new show based on the Game of Thrones series.
Episode 1 : 8/10
Episode 2 : ?/10
I will compare scores sometime on Monday.
Resolution: Episode 2 has a score of 8.9/10. | N/A | null | null |
|
a3k1RgxAVYiAU1qeA5Su | TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2 | itsTomekK | Tomek ⚡ K | 1,704,225,194,859 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c | 1,706,828,340,000 | January 2024: Will Bitcoin hit $50,000? | january-2024-will-bitcoin-hit-50000 | https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/january-2024-will-bitcoin-hit-50000 | {
"NO": 230.412771480586,
"YES": 244778.77091368882
} | 0.000399 | 0.297688 | 2,090 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 310,919.122924 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,860,865,370 | 0 | 277 | 1,706,860,866,206 | 1,706,823,751,410 | 1,706,791,868,415 | [
"crypto-speculation",
"bitcoin",
"prices",
"crypto-prices"
] | If in January 2024 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $50,000 or more, this will resolve YES.
In the case of uncertainty, the 7-day high price will be used.
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | N/A | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | |
orZPoDrpZHWeMqiWpWff | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | gpt_news_headlines | gpt_news_headlines | 1,710,436,192,873 | https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgpt_news_headlines%2FkldFg_g8xa.07?alt=media&token=18eba95e-67d2-4e1f-9539-5d194eb20ba1 | 1,714,541,616,477 | Will President Biden Call for Netanyahu's Resignation by April 30th, 2024? | will-president-biden-call-for-netan | https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines/will-president-biden-call-for-netan | {
"NO": 281.18773289174317,
"YES": 4753.748795726559
} | 0.012015 | 0.170535 | 495 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,089.718237 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,541,616,477 | 0.01 | 17 | 1,714,541,616,477 | 1,714,261,268,792 | 1,713,936,463,810 | [
"us-politics",
"israelhamas-conflict-2023",
"israel"
] | See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
--
Prediction Market Title:
"Will President Biden Call for Netanyahu's Resignation by April 30th, 2024?"
Introduction:
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has publicly urged Israel to elect a new leader to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, emphasizing the importance of this change for achieving a two-state solution and peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Schumer's call represents a significant political stance from a high-ranking U.S. official, raising questions about the U.S. administration's position. This prediction market aims to forecast whether President Joe Biden will echo Schumer's sentiment by calling for Netanyahu's resignation by April 30th, 2024.
Example Headlines for YES Resolution:
"President Biden Publicly Calls for Netanyahu to Step Down for Peace Progress"
"Biden Joins Schumer in Calling for New Israeli Leadership, Targets Netanyahu's Resignation"
"In a Shift, Biden Demands Netanyahu's Resignation to Facilitate Two-State Solution"
"White House Official Statement: Biden Seeks Netanyahu's Departure for Peace Efforts"
"Biden: 'Time for Netanyahu to Resign' to Advance Israeli-Palestinian Peace"
Example Edge Cases for NO Resolution:
"Biden Expresses Concerns Over Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, Stops Short of Demanding Netanyahu's Resignation"
"White House Calls for Peaceful Resolution in Israel, No Direct Mention of Netanyahu Resigning"
"Biden Advocates for Dialogue in Israel, Does Not Call for Netanyahu's Departure"
"U.S. Encourages Israeli Political Reform, Biden Makes No Personal Reference to Netanyahu"
"In Speech, Biden Laments Lack of Progress Towards Two-State Solution, Does Not Mention Netanyahu"
Prompt to resolve market
<paste in market above rules above>
Using the above, will the following headline qualify?
<paste in headline + lead paragraph>
The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES.
Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist.
Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines | N/A | JCN5ptf5GGdFaakgcnJ4TPZa0no2 | null |
Ced6tn8CIu9Tk3cI1QVB | jtyAWBvjRsTckA46ckZCElO5X1g2 | astyerche | power creep | 1,684,467,041,173 | 1,704,095,940,000 | Will Manifold implement a "sell all" button? | will-manifold-implement-a-sell-all | https://manifold.markets/astyerche/will-manifold-implement-a-sell-all | {
"NO": 105.83068197844284,
"YES": 1394.8670083174836
} | 0.017214 | 0.187555 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,296.550759 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,096,958,860 | 0.02 | 10 | 1,704,096,959,117 | 1,704,090,036,113 | 1,684,469,442,349 | [
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | resolves as expected.
some expected behaviors are :
sell all shares and convert them to mana.
bonus if it should tell you how much mana you will recieve along with a warning.
personally would be interested in something like this after that shirt auction lol | N/A | jtyAWBvjRsTckA46ckZCElO5X1g2 | ||
aXo3cjCqy8mwpT8JAex2 | 4hRWjB6yc5TSRGNojA0vVAO7Xwz1 | NiciusB | NiciusB | 1,680,350,985,646 | 1,702,681,140,000 | Will there be more than 650 Mass Shootings in the U.S. in 2023? | will-there-be-more-than-650-mass-sh | https://manifold.markets/NiciusB/will-there-be-more-than-650-mass-sh | {
"NO": 1891.4833355769642,
"YES": 609.8545895631404
} | 0.81932 | 0.593838 | 1,010 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,550.914504 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,027,809,983 | 0.82 | 66 | 1,704,027,945,584 | 1,702,681,139,353 | 1,704,027,944,846 | [
"crime",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | The data source will be gunviolencearchive.org
Data for past years from that source: https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/past-tolls
2022: 646
2021: 690
2020: 610
2019: 415
2018: 336 | N/A | 4hRWjB6yc5TSRGNojA0vVAO7Xwz1 | ||
xzwiprk3hzHdWGLqfxGe | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,698,006,595,027 | 1,698,289,200,000 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Jacksonville State beat Florida International? | -2023-ncaaf-will-jacksonville-state | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-jacksonville-state | {
"NO": 6338.744980366195,
"YES": 60.97190023358348
} | 0.998907 | 0.897897 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,314.969056 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,299,684,886 | 1 | 7 | 1,698,288,345,535 | 1,698,288,343,911 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"football",
"college-football"
] | 2023-10-25 at 7 PM ET | N/A | null | null |
|
ONBbgJo6ZJyXfkwC3qTQ | EB38gVKAlYQHulWNFyZ7pnyT7Um1 | HelenD | Helen D | 1,693,491,697,252 | 1,696,152,681,917 | Will Toronto Blue Jays make the playoffs ⚾️ 2023? | will-toronto-blue-jays-make-the-pla | https://manifold.markets/HelenD/will-toronto-blue-jays-make-the-pla | {
"NO": 10383.43917272097,
"YES": 110.5576647907877
} | 0.992187 | 0.574849 | 850 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,816.287799 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,152,681,917 | 0.99 | 46 | 1,696,143,488,899 | 1,696,143,488,285 | -1 | [
"sports-default",
"mlb",
"baseball"
] | The 2023 Major League Baseball postseason is the elimination tournament held to determine MLB’s champion. Commencing October 3, the playoffs for each league—American and National—consist of two best-of-three wild-card playoffs contested by the worst-seeded division winner and the three wild card teams, two best-of-five Division Series featuring the wild-card winners and the two highest-seeded division winners, and finally the best-of-seven League Championship Series. The winners of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) and the National League Championship Series (NLCS) play each other in the best-of-seven World Series. | N/A | null | ||
6hJbjYZUStVmFKL7YirO | O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72 | AjayChabra | Ajay | 1,700,918,409,948 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c | 1,701,082,366,800 | NFL Week 12 (SNF) 11/26/23 - Will BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson pass for more yards than LA Chargers QB Justin Herbert? | nfl-week-12-snf-112623-will-bal-rav | https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-12-snf-112623-will-bal-rav | {
"NO": 35.865736320130075,
"YES": 6157.906312078771
} | 0.001111 | 0.160319 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,116.049717 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,082,366,800 | 0 | 7 | 1,701,066,049,681 | 1,701,066,040,368 | 1,701,066,049,018 | [
"baltimore-ravens",
"nfl",
"nflprops",
"los-angeles-chargers"
] | Week 12 - (SNF) - 11/26/23 - BAL Ravens @ LA Chargers.
Will BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson pass for more yards than LA Chargers QB Justin Herbert?
2023 average pass yards/game:
Jackson: 222
Herbert: 261
notes: If either player doesn't play, this market will N/A. If they are tied in pass yards it will pay out at 50%. | N/A | null | null |
5soy05oAyvLZ3x91Htvn | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | KeenenW | Keenen W | 1,708,727,943,263 | 1,709,323,200,000 | Will Apple close higher than 182.52 on March 1? | will-apple-close-higher-than-18252 | https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-close-higher-than-18252 | {
"NO": 222.9198260014079,
"YES": 3714.457753790217
} | 0.025443 | 0.303147 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 6,456.384774 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,329,664,148 | 0.03 | 35 | 1,709,329,664,450 | 1,709,321,414,304 | 1,709,329,658,529 | [
"economics-default",
"world-default",
"finance",
"entertainment",
"stocks-league-beta",
"stocks",
"gaming",
"apple",
"technology-default",
"keen-stocks"
] | Retailer Stocks
Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 182.52
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | N/A | X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1 | ||
X45wvvRyhKkLPEIIRZGW | 4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2 | BTE | Brian T. Edwards | 1,668,727,345,764 | 1,688,135,911,188 | Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? | will-the-supreme-court-permit-biden | https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-supreme-court-permit-biden | {
"NO": 676.0663142425166,
"YES": 9116.174302537822
} | 0.04791 | 0.40424 | 1,970 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 26,053.809093 | 0 | true | NO | 1,688,135,911,188 | 0.05 | 103 | 1,688,135,861,929 | 1,688,135,861,802 | 1,688,124,976,276 | [
"law-order",
"supreme-court",
"court-cases"
] | Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed?
Nov 17, 6:22pm: Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? → Will the Supreme Court permit Biden's student loan forgiveness program to proceed? | N/A | null | ||
1vUvrBRpVDMEDeJj0qAO | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,200,861,313 | 1,699,830,000,000 | [Weekly] Will XRP close higher on November 12th than it did on November 5th? | weekly-will-xrp-close-higher-on-nov | https://manifold.markets/Haws/weekly-will-xrp-close-higher-on-nov | {
"NO": 573.3694623869206,
"YES": 101.46722741382125
} | 0.92 | 0.670523 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,246.095 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,835,317,544 | 0.92 | 11 | 1,699,835,313,450 | 1,699,829,932,690 | 1,699,835,312,770 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD
Previous Close: $0.6612
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS$
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
63cfKuGbmcLj9PdgnC9c | nEc7EizWpQSGO5y5A7H13TaE6Aw2 | MattP | Matt P | 1,659,354,931,291 | 1,706,830,411,649 | Will Iowa be the first contest held in the 2024 Republican party primary season? | will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held-e1139ccecdc9 | https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held-e1139ccecdc9 | {
"NO": 1512.5483745798688,
"YES": 75.9840544951155
} | 0.985086 | 0.768422 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,428.237286 | 0 | true | YES | 1,706,830,411,649 | 0.99 | 12 | 1,706,830,412,368 | 1,706,828,478,059 | 1,706,830,394,182 | [
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"2024-us-presidential-election"
] | Resolves to YES if the first primary contest of the 2024 Republican party presidential primary (yes, including caucuses in this definition) is in Iowa. Resolves to NO otherwise. In the event more than 1 contest is held on the same day and one of them is Iowa, resolves 50% PROB.
Sister market: https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-iowa-be-the-first-contest-held | N/A | fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42 | null |
|
5d34LB3KFkP6jsbPPN1q | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | Ernie | Ernie | 1,704,301,882,878 | 1,705,132,740,000 | Will a proposal for who should be the new president appear in the Harvard Crimson by Fri, Jan 12? | will-a-proposal-for-who-should-be-t | https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-a-proposal-for-who-should-be-t | {
"NO": 130.1083338985416,
"YES": 416.5110593205301
} | 0.09992 | 0.262199 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 275.494884 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,435,535,932 | 0.1 | 10 | 1,705,435,536,235 | 1,705,129,660,389 | -1 | [
"claudine-gay",
"harvard"
] | Looking over the front page, I don't see a single list of people proposing leaders or discussing it. I wonder if they'll shift to that, or if the crimson is going to stay out of it?
Resolution:
If the front page https://www.thecrimson.com/ ever has an article mentioning a specific name or names of people who it's suggesting or evaluating to take on the role of president in the title, visible on PC + browser
Story=>result
"Should Larry Summers return?" => Yes
"Should Pinker lead us?" => Yes
"Men should not lead" => no effect
"The new leader must be diverse" => no effect
"Evaluating interim president Garber" => no effect
It has to have a name and has to concern who should be the new president. | N/A | kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2 | ||
72chA1ZiqBPV72dGO9Jg | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | StopPunting | Stop Punting | 1,701,727,543,398 | 1,703,996,222,637 | Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - Ally of the year? | will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-3da31ec89c5e | https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-3da31ec89c5e | {
"NO": 488.8134466099699,
"YES": 42.876302821953914
} | 0.951846 | 0.634213 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 663 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,996,222,637 | 0.95 | 4 | 1,703,996,223,266 | 1,702,541,705,656 | 1,703,996,218,000 | [
"destinygg",
"the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125",
"the-destiny-awards-2023",
"debate",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SkepticIC/who-will-be-destinys-ally-of-the-ye)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.
This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as "YES", any other and it will resolve as "NO".
"Other" counts as everybody else in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)
Using Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:
https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046
Please no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).
I will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets. | N/A | mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2 | ||
1LhSrhcHioRPg8XHakMR | 9CaU0t9MS8f5chVZYX3F08t9ELc2 | Fedor | Fedor | 1,683,224,860,535 | 1,685,602,020,446 | Will Western Alliance fail by end of May 2023? | will-western-alliance-fail-by-end-o | https://manifold.markets/Fedor/will-western-alliance-fail-by-end-o | {
"NO": 342.4528353754704,
"YES": 12921.76551352154
} | 0.004265 | 0.139133 | 610 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,599.327594 | 0 | true | NO | 1,685,602,020,446 | 0.01 | 33 | 1,685,602,013,704 | 1,685,602,013,363 | -1 | [
"financial-crisis",
"economics-default"
] | Will Western Alliance Bancorporation fail, have to be bailed out, or sold as a whole before May 2023?
Yes if it fails OR gets sold
No if it survives
Stock price here: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/WAL
Will end up on here if it fails: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Wil resolve if an event caused it to fail in May, but the failed-bank-list is only updated a few days later.
As this market is objective, I may trade in it. | N/A | null | ||
rDtr6J17BSHe3kUxTxJb | jN3B2mJmaYPr3LdEuk8idYF97Mh1 | gooey | gooey | 1,692,983,284,699 | 1,693,060,059,883 | Will Daniel Ricciardo race in the 2023 Dutch Grand Prix | will-daniel-ricciardo-race-in-the-2 | https://manifold.markets/gooey/will-daniel-ricciardo-race-in-the-2 | {
"NO": 46.073301681199155,
"YES": 3498.50180544859
} | 0.001415 | 0.097175 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,451.235218 | 0 | true | NO | 1,693,060,059,883 | 0 | 5 | 1,693,055,298,160 | 1,693,055,297,901 | 1,693,005,436,150 | [
"formula-1"
] | Daniel Ricciardo has suffered from an injury during practice and is currently in the hospital.
This question will resolve to yes if he is on the starting grid on Sunday and wil resolve to no otherwise. | N/A | null | null |
|
t8vpduLldDF1ZtcdMC5P | kYMgAHyTUtY4qXNNO6qYNC4SczZ2 | Che | che | 1,675,912,711,398 | 1,676,135,558,245 | Does Steven "Destiny" Bonnell play Factorio on the next stream available at https://www.youtube.com/destiny? | does-steven-destiny-bonnell-play-fa | https://manifold.markets/Che/does-steven-destiny-bonnell-play-fa | {
"NO": 418.5042191554134,
"YES": 119.32677323011312
} | 0.842218 | 0.603484 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 445.931189 | 0 | true | YES | 1,676,135,558,245 | 0.84 | 11 | 1,676,090,522,823 | 1,676,090,522,659 | -1 | [
"destinygg"
] | Does Steven "Destiny" Bonnell play Factorio on the next stream available at https://www.youtube.com/destiny?
Close date updated to 2023-02-16 6:59 pm | N/A | null | ||
GsPIk3Vlln7xE2hfs1CZ | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,707,758,168,036 | 1,710,524,174,224 | Will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) have a Metacritic score >80? | will-dune-part-two-2024-have-a-meta | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-dune-part-two-2024-have-a-meta | {
"NO": 10.564554250364381,
"YES": 17735.23266040701
} | 0.000968 | 0.619317 | 1,180 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 28,002.316756 | 0 | true | NO | 1,710,524,174,224 | 0 | 103 | 1,715,804,583,294 | 1,710,524,155,133 | 1,715,804,581,855 | [
"entertainment",
"hollywood",
"media-rating-futures",
"dune",
"television-film",
"culture-default",
"boxoffice",
"movies",
"metacritic"
] | "Dune: Part Two" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/
I will resolve based on the Metascore on March 15th (two weeks after release).
This is based on critics, not audiences. For example, "Dune: Part One" (2021) currently lists a Metascore of 74.
I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, & I won't try to compute that myself).
To compare with other films by Vilenueve, "Incendies" has a Metascore of 80 and would thus resolve NO, while "Bladerunner 2049" has a Metascore of 81 and would resolve YES. "Sicario" and "Arrival" also have Metascore >80.
Other details:
I don't expect the score to be shifting much two weeks after release, but just in case, it will resolve based on what I see whenever I happen to check on that date (I can't guarantee exactly what time I'll be free to resolve it).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask. | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | ||
n778JBZeoDkrk2JLgG1r | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,702,548,817,666 | 1,702,808,400,000 | Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-17 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES) | will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-53aedccb0ba2 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-53aedccb0ba2 | {
"NO": 67.42075028850017,
"YES": 83.00000000000001
} | 0.147119 | 0.17516 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 13 | 0 | true | NO | 1,702,848,170,671 | 0.15 | 3 | 1,702,798,144,183 | 1,702,798,141,338 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2023-12-17 10:20 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2023-12-17 - 12:20 (UTC)
04:20 (Los Angeles)
07:20 (New York)
13:20 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:00
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
fUNhjgDLNENHaluF5iYX | dAOgbBgjXZbizQV7OMssjJBYAvY2 | TexanElite | TexanElite | 1,672,605,940,815 | 1,696,778,608,196 | Will there be a coup/coup attempt in Burkina Faso by the end of 2023? | will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in | https://manifold.markets/TexanElite/will-there-be-a-coupcoup-attempt-in | {
"NO": 940.2700523094234,
"YES": 56.54164506617585
} | 0.977916 | 0.726984 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,358.716513 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,778,608,196 | 0.98 | 9 | 1,696,776,571,008 | 1,696,776,568,225 | 1,696,753,524,433 | [
"politics-default",
"ancient-markets"
] | Resolves YES if there is a coup or a coup attempt in Burkina Faso before December 31st, 2023 and resolves NO otherwise. | N/A | null | ||
yrmBkZXh753T1I9VZV3j | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | MarcusAbramovitch | Marcus Abramovitch | 1,697,134,072,533 | 1,698,960,850,455 | Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Dec 15? | will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-7b814c852a9a | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-7b814c852a9a | {
"NO": 4705.971111001682,
"YES": 224.28280572799588
} | 0.966786 | 0.581112 | 890 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 11,035.228934 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,118,999,523 | 0.97 | 46 | 1,710,206,889,674 | 1,698,956,774,693 | 1,698,860,491,400 | [
"israelhamas-conflict-2023",
"israel",
"arabisraeli-conflict",
"palestine"
] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by December 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The "Yes" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. | N/A | null | null |
|
KpuXnp7XwsxNwOtQQP9b | S3quHYCnS6Xo4WBpy2j6Iw8QkCF3 | SarkanyVar | Sárkány Vár | 1,695,636,713,017 | 1,696,636,800,000 | [Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Philippe bring Tropical Storm force winds to Bermuda? | m200-subsidy-will-tropical-storm-ph | https://manifold.markets/SarkanyVar/m200-subsidy-will-tropical-storm-ph | {
"NO": 1026.0021701543283,
"YES": 323.26994102189997
} | 0.77 | 0.51334 | 670 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 9,458.082099 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,654,184,893 | 0.77 | 22 | 1,696,654,644,003 | 1,696,632,854,293 | 1,696,654,642,119 | [
"bermuda",
"extreme-weather",
"2023-hurricane-season",
"weather",
"natural-disasters",
"hurricanes"
] | Background
Here is yet another episode of Bermuda tropical cyclone markets (previous ones here and here). According to different model forecasts, the path of Tropical Storm Philippe carries strong uncertainty beyond the next 2-3 days.
Per NHC:
"Philippe should continue west-northwestward over the next day or two, steered along the southern side of a mid-level ridge. In about 2 days, all models depict a weakness developing in the ridge, but the track guidance diverges quite drastically, and it is directly related to the intensity of the system. A deeper, stronger system, like the GFS depicts, will feel the weakness in the ridge and curve the system faster on a more northwestward track. However, a weaker, shallow cyclone, like the ECMWF depicts, will cause the system to continue on a west-northwestward or even westward track. The NHC track forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance, and lies close to both the simple and corrected consensus aids. This remains a low confidence track and intensity forecast."
[image]Will Philippe pound Bermuda with inclement weather shortly after Lee, or will its impact mostly be confined to the fishies?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Philippe brings tropical-storm-level winds (>34 knots, >39 mph) to any part of Bermuda while maintaining tropical characteristics.
Resolves NO if Philippe dissipates or becomes extratropical before the fulfilment of the condition for YES.
Will resolve based on Bermuda Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center data.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy. | N/A | null | ||
Wmzi5NHq34Wx0S7aScR8 | zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03 | CquilPromp | Cquil Promp | 1,694,702,022,894 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c | 1,695,355,140,000 | Gas Price September 25, 2023: Will U.S. average be more than 10 cents above the Sept. 11th level of $3.822 per gallon? | gas-price-september-25-2023-will-us | https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/gas-price-september-25-2023-will-us | {
"NO": 120.47430417285463,
"YES": 589.28643223608
} | 0.084047 | 0.309787 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 729.504011 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,723,618,791 | 0.08 | 10 | 1,695,683,475,835 | 1,695,336,886,742 | 1,695,683,474,265 | [
"oil",
"economics-default",
"inflation",
"commodities",
"gas-prices"
] | Will the U.S. Energy Information Administration national average of gasoline prices released on Monday 2023-09-25 be greater than 3.922 ?
Question closes Thursday 2023-09-21 11:59 PM ET
Resolves according to:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/
7 | N/A | null | null |
vljlN4kbwcFRvQjBtaRf | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,700,603,093,221 | 1,700,679,600,000 | Will the TSX close higher on November 22 than it did on November 21? | will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-e06a51d53bf0 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-e06a51d53bf0 | {
"NO": 208.5419467124971,
"YES": 139.554515639199
} | 0.678323 | 0.585256 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,019.173928 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,692,619,250 | 0.68 | 9 | 1,700,692,614,742 | 1,700,679,298,640 | 1,700,692,614,093 | [
"finance",
"hawsbollah",
"stocks",
"economics-default",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
AAScdpNxTkFgqidgvO2a | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | Orimos | Christian | 1,702,573,589,386 | 1,702,656,000,000 | Will CAC 40 close higher december 15th than the close of december 14th? (Daily Market) | will-cac-40-close-higher-december-1-69eba10a0476 | https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-december-1-69eba10a0476 | {
"NO": 267.0285939462016,
"YES": 100.7106198169837
} | 0.81975 | 0.631708 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 183.894314 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,665,345,360 | 0.82 | 6 | 1,702,665,341,204 | 1,702,655,058,014 | 1,702,665,340,526 | [
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"stocks"
] | CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ.
Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.
Previous close:
[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.
Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE | N/A | rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2 | ||
q5LlNycwKPNzcmd9cdUC | JVfms6HK5qZA9Es2f1SHgRnSlAK2 | Steelbiceps | Steelbiceps | 1,700,178,146,003 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJUTGDBWU9o2D5L5AQ-53OvuIkwp5TLKiqDOkg3TO7z=s96-c | 1,711,647,951,716 | Will Doug DeMuro's review of the CyberTruck rate it as good as the Rivian R1T? | will-doug-demuros-review-of-the-cyb | https://manifold.markets/Steelbiceps/will-doug-demuros-review-of-the-cyb | {
"NO": 1241.3121747839439,
"YES": 22.77152925384803
} | 0.977907 | 0.448127 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,602.853284 | 0 | true | YES | 1,711,647,951,716 | 0.98 | 12 | 1,711,647,951,716 | 1,711,643,011,314 | 1,711,643,091,567 | [
"cybertruck",
"elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e",
"electric-vehicles",
"tesla",
"rivian"
] | YouTube automotive reviewer Doug DeMuro specializes in reviewing high-performance, exotic, and high-end automobiles. In 2022 he reviewed the Rivian R1T and gave it the highest score of any pickup truck he has ever reviewed, with 73 out of 100 possible points. This will resolve to yes if his review of the CyberTruck has at least 73 points.
Doug's R1T review:
https://youtu.be/CYrunRy8hmw?si=bf7g4KXCNO5Omap5 | N/A | JVfms6HK5qZA9Es2f1SHgRnSlAK2 | null |
Mf4J7qxrplNAk5AztT99 | vZ2BIFdBHXQNnsTopYX3jGBReCP2 | tsaitama | tsaitama | 1,709,845,220,633 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIo1kLpLqU_LW5SgKLVf379xSEck6-uiJeXIhpoN3xKdsQ=s96-c | 1,716,482,309,142 | Will the show FX Shōgun (Shogun 2024) be renewed for a 2nd season? (End of 2024) | will-the-show-fx-shogun-shogun-2024 | https://manifold.markets/tsaitama/will-the-show-fx-shogun-shogun-2024 | {
"NO": 1653.705308412564,
"YES": 669.5159794252963
} | 0.879945 | 0.747947 | 1,000 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,590.09348 | 0 | true | YES | 1,716,482,309,142 | 0.88 | 31 | 1,716,482,309,142 | 1,716,224,009,911 | 1,715,918,823,488 | [
"culture-default",
"entertainment",
"television-film",
"tv"
] | Will update the description/Keep up with comments.
I haven't watched the show yet but I know currently they are up to 3 or 4/10 episodes (I think?).
Will Shōgun be renewed for a 2nd season even though the original book's storyline will end in Season 1?
The setting has potential for original material, but the creators do admit that the possibility is so-so.
Interested to see if opinions change as the show goes on, although they will likely still be very faithful to source material.
Until the end of 2024 for renewal | N/A | vZ2BIFdBHXQNnsTopYX3jGBReCP2 | null |
bgREqfNyGRHFY40KhnZ5 | pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23 | MrLuke255 | MrLuke255 | 1,693,836,562,212 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdg1avhCMoBkHhCstNtQDHtbxSxH089ql8vXTP6lrfvvQ=s96-c | 1,696,197,540,000 | Will EUR/PLN go up in the upcoming month? | will-eurpln-go-up-in-the-upcoming-m | https://manifold.markets/MrLuke255/will-eurpln-go-up-in-the-upcoming-m | {
"NO": 9652.128529150492,
"YES": 186.55990126480108
} | 0.994365 | 0.773276 | 490 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,680.411965 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,218,653,002 | 0.99 | 26 | 1,696,196,293,310 | 1,696,196,292,997 | 1,694,582,021,333 | [
"european-union",
"europe",
"currency",
"money",
"wall-street-predictions",
"economics-default",
"wall-street-bets",
"poland",
"politics-in-poland",
"central-banks",
"finance",
"forex"
] | Is one EUR going to be worth more than 4.4685 PLN on 2.10.2023 (1.10.2023 is a Sunday)?
Will resolve according to https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-pln.en.html
Related markets:
[markets] | N/A | null | |
lxIn2GaNfnI5zzlGby2j | QP8oaQ0uutUV5eCLA9nIojXWvYS2 | CE | Charity Entrepreneurship | 1,683,910,901,277 | 1,685,948,340,000 | MEDIA4: Discouraging female genital mutilation | 4-discouraging-female-genital-mutil | https://manifold.markets/CE/4-discouraging-female-genital-mutil | {
"NO": 1108.4345572874513,
"YES": 1619.2863382625856
} | 0.214426 | 0.285077 | 1,250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,814.569191 | 0 | true | NO | 1,689,007,809,181 | 0.21 | 38 | 1,685,978,415,838 | 1,685,947,282,906 | 1,685,978,413,485 | [
"ce-2023-top-ideas"
] | [image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select "Discouraging female genital mutilation" as a top Mass Media intervention?
Idea overview
Female genital mutilation (FGM) is still highly prevalent in LMICs, especially in Saharan and northern sub-Saharan Africa. It involves partially or fully cutting a girl's external genitalia, which can cause (among other issues) serious bleeding, infection, infertility, and even death. This organization would produce edutainment shows aimed to stimulate reflection and debate around this topic, with the aim of changing people’s attitudes, perceived norms, and ultimately their decision on whether or not to do FGM.
Mass media interventions
By ‘mass media’ intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.
About the contest
In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected
You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.
You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.
For contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.
| N/A | null | ||
TZRfdlfDcBuzE5QGFgbg | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | Joshua | Joshua | 1,698,862,216,461 | 1,714,608,103,964 | Will there be Manifold Leagues badges/cosmetics/trophies within 6 months? | will-there-be-manifold-leagues-badg | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-there-be-manifold-leagues-badg | {
"NO": 47.306816669731,
"YES": 2403.997475918562
} | 0.014067 | 0.420305 | 410 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,620.700052 | 0 | true | NO | 1,714,608,103,964 | 0.01 | 19 | 1,714,608,103,964 | 1,714,406,016,986 | 1,714,607,964,747 | [
"manifold-features-25bad7c7792e",
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"manifold-leagues"
] | See this suggestion in the discord:
[image]I think it's a good idea! Resolves yes if any of these ideas, or something in the same spirit, is implemented by market close. I will not trade in this market | N/A | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | null |
|
4CeO0bzWXxZ53uDxZfFv | ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2 | Akzzz123 | AK | 1,684,659,505,110 | 1,685,913,327,132 | Will hostilities between the warring factions in Sudan resume within 5 weeks after the start of the ceasefire? | will-hostilities-between-the-warrin | https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-hostilities-between-the-warrin | {
"NO": 16671.74342252941,
"YES": 16.53894254536135
} | 0.99957 | 0.697654 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 16,671.810556 | 0 | true | YES | 1,685,913,327,132 | 1 | 8 | 1,685,990,717,831 | 1,685,913,313,839 | 1,685,990,715,416 | [
"world-default",
"wars"
] | YES = If according to reliable sources, there's a resumption of conflict that's similar in scale to fighting before the ceasefire started. Isolated incidents will be ignored if they don't lead to a resumption of the conflict.
NO = There are no reports of resumption of the conflict at any time during the 5 weeks after the temporary ceasefire starts
More on the temporary ceasefire:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/warring-factions-sudan-agree-temporary-ceasefire-us-saudi-mediators-sa-rcna85440
[link preview] | N/A | null | ||
Adu6k2PeRrCgNTq9lw56 | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,686,669,622,447 | 1,686,756,600,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 14th June than it closed on 13th June? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-f17ebfe2da47 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-f17ebfe2da47 | {
"NO": 3653.3469930999768,
"YES": 130.03117613043855
} | 0.993364 | 0.841978 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,786.66558 | 0 | true | YES | 1,686,757,970,917 | 0.99 | 14 | 1,686,756,157,282 | 1,686,756,157,128 | 1,686,753,947,953 | [
"stocks",
"ftse-100"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 14th June than it did on Tuesday 13th June?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
And here are some longer term FTSE markets:
[markets] | N/A | null | null |
|
Dr1xRLQSGyBUYhXnnOY3 | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,707,189,456,861 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,708,009,199,950 | Will the highest temperature in NYC in Feb 14, 2024 be higher than the previous day? | will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-2a06fe809c57 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-2a06fe809c57 | {
"NO": 39.264457432276686,
"YES": 6419.284550518559
} | 0.001668 | 0.214542 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,445.104935 | 0 | true | NO | 1,708,016,612,274 | 0 | 11 | 1,708,016,612,477 | 1,708,000,884,312 | 1,707,954,321,542 | [
"weather"
] | Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Feb 14, 2024 is higher than the previous day
Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No)
Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.
| N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
sIiD1bnq59uSfljX66mo | EeuBBAy3c0Tk8wYQh2quLsKT2l23 | trrvvf | trr vvf | 1,688,995,195,629 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfDbDmBE6OZepsM4-5x0bcw1NcmfPIfjROctw-Bj3FE=s96-c | 1,690,732,800,000 | Will Valve officially launch Counter-Strike 2 before August? | will-valve-officially-launch-counte | https://manifold.markets/trrvvf/will-valve-officially-launch-counte | {
"NO": 243.36001490232704,
"YES": 784.6850631904308
} | 0.047266 | 0.137906 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,404.914122 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,783,980,032 | 0.05 | 14 | 1,710,206,802,132 | 1,690,730,772,473 | 1,690,784,002,243 | [
"valve-8f151385bf6e"
] | (https://www.counter-strike.net/cs2) | N/A | null | null |
cYKJBgDeTcSddBHowjBX | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | CarsonGale | Carson Gale | 1,672,882,562,819 | 1,704,527,940,000 | In 2023, will there be the largest resurgence and boldest proposals of industrial policy since the 1950s and '60s? | in-2023-will-there-be-the-largest-r | https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/in-2023-will-there-be-the-largest-r | {
"NO": 167.98380360300908,
"YES": 427.0004958936409
} | 0.142535 | 0.297032 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 201.588484 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,706,629,643 | 0.14 | 9 | 1,707,706,629,847 | 1,704,451,464,260 | 1,701,907,284,365 | [
"term-sheet-2023-predictions",
"private-markets",
"carsons-important-markets"
] | On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“We’ll see the largest resurgence, and boldest proposals, of industrial policy since the 1950s and ’60s, both to meet social and economic goals and to guide the development and access to strategic technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. This will be a response to the fracturing of global technology and business networks as the world’s supply chains are disrupted by war, great power competition, and climate change. Businesses that get ahead of this convergence between private and public will establish long-term resiliency and adapt quickly.” —Evan Smith, CEO and co-founder, Altana Technologies
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
| N/A | 4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1 | null |
|
Q8mXER2F6CUylmtqbOwr | EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1 | FranklinBaldo | Franklin Baldo | 1,669,260,986,433 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c | 1,684,146,464,360 | Will the fine (~USD 4 million) imposed to Bolsonaro's party (PL) for contesting the election results without presenting evidence be paid? | will-the-fine-usd-4-million-imposed | https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-the-fine-usd-4-million-imposed | {
"NO": 557.8603647902513,
"YES": 48.37553145443834
} | 0.930771 | 0.538294 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 765.211684 | 0 | true | YES | 1,684,146,464,360 | 0.93 | 7 | 1,684,146,437,798 | 1,684,146,437,663 | 1,684,146,421,272 | [
"brazil-3292d24d179f"
] | (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-bolsonaro-concede-the-election) | N/A | null | |
4WRaaj8GhhdEvKt1sCkt | epZdM9Pyw0PrreR6k0SVTm9AD3Q2 | AnishaZaveri | Anisha Zaveri | 1,691,078,769,336 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Sf3T4r685ODul8z1TTPEbpE9hFgu2PJSzpZPj=s96-c | 1,700,813,641,354 | Will Charles Leclerc finish ahead of George Russell in the 2023 Formula 1 (F1) World Drivers Championship? | will-charles-leclerc-finish-ahead-o-9cfabae79aa7 | https://manifold.markets/AnishaZaveri/will-charles-leclerc-finish-ahead-o-9cfabae79aa7 | {
"NO": 2723.7982898641853,
"YES": 58.859328606978345
} | 0.9866 | 0.61405 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,669.154083 | 0 | true | YES | 1,700,813,641,354 | 0.99 | 15 | 1,700,778,692,365 | 1,700,650,742,774 | 1,700,778,691,629 | [
"formula-1"
] | N/A | null | null |
|
D7oL0csyMcENVsw2YJME | FfLzliE1lMVKx3DQeEo84jJieRt1 | DannyOBrien | Danny O'Brien🤖 | 1,696,259,142,102 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giey4724bWiZCcfL-l3K94KluaBKfVSKoKYQJawmkibUV4=s96-c | 1,696,618,800,000 | Will Las Vegas' $SPHR close higher on Fri 6 October than its price at close Mon 2 October? | will-las-vegas-sphr-be-higher-or-lo | https://manifold.markets/DannyOBrien/will-las-vegas-sphr-be-higher-or-lo | {
"NO": 252.10486975310286,
"YES": 162.96819878000383
} | 0.438118 | 0.335125 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 959.47617 | 0 | true | NO | 1,696,625,006,326 | 0.44 | 12 | 1,696,625,102,613 | 1,696,618,799,683 | 1,696,625,101,936 | [
"sphere",
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-02/sphere-entertainment-sphr-rises-as-u2-show-kicks-off-venue-opening#xj4y7vzkg
Question closes 1200h PDT (1500h EDT) 2023-10-07.
Resolves based on below website at 1300h PDT (1500h EDT) https://www.google.com/finance/quote/SPHR:NYSE
(I won't be participating in this market) | N/A | null | null |
n9EjjGkKdgLLvpiXmu7e | b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3 | MarcusAbramovitch | Marcus Abramovitch | 1,697,600,675,329 | 1,698,209,940,000 | Will Argentina presidential election go to a second round? | will-argentina-presidential-electio | https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-argentina-presidential-electio | {
"NO": 6863.1920078735775,
"YES": 133.47013706416897
} | 0.996654 | 0.852787 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,351.081533 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,469,115,815 | 1 | 15 | 1,713,168,054,366 | 1,698,204,826,471 | 1,713,168,053,852 | [
"argentina",
"elections-world",
"2023-argentina-election"
] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2023 Argentina presidential election requires a second round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Argentina's government (e.g. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/elecciones-2023), however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
mJvtqSLVR8kpAHBRALEl | jG0qmq661GThqp1X7L8hQQffHRq2 | CWellington1076 | Carter | 1,698,263,824,603 | 1,701,793,380,184 | Will Caleb Williams opt out of the 2023 season at any point? | will-caleb-williams-opt-out-of-the | https://manifold.markets/CWellington1076/will-caleb-williams-opt-out-of-the | {
"NO": 277.2545243317001,
"YES": 100.78975180798615
} | 0.83 | 0.639623 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 188.123961 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,793,380,184 | 0.83 | 8 | 1,701,715,177,128 | 1,701,715,177,128 | -1 | [
"football",
"college-football"
] | Does he give up on the USC season and start prepping for the draft????? | N/A | null | null |
|
Uwy6ZZWILtBEePEOWPxh | htTysn3rLZgeUomLzaTjDgnaxN02 | AMONRA | AmonRa | 1,676,640,880,936 | 1,702,865,170,166 | Will Destiny debate a philosopher by Nov 8th ? | will-destiny-debate-a-philosopher-b | https://manifold.markets/AMONRA/will-destiny-debate-a-philosopher-b | {
"NO": 1324.3094379413194,
"YES": 156.03450126559363
} | 0.967245 | 0.776748 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,540.691857 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,865,170,166 | 0.97 | 15 | 1,702,859,449,479 | 1,702,857,282,960 | 1,702,859,448,726 | [
"destinygg"
] | Philosopher = someone with at least a bachelors degree in philosophy | N/A | W4yEF6idSMcNWEVUquowziSCZFI3 | ||
KOwOSaj6YQJmRxX4jgIL | GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2 | eppsilon | eppsilon | 1,697,406,549,370 | 1,697,914,756,574 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Mississippi State beat Arkansas? | -2023-ncaaf-will-mississippi-state | https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-mississippi-state | {
"NO": 3065.933777144367,
"YES": 10.377871227579362
} | 0.9956 | 0.433712 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,124.885662 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,914,756,574 | 0.95 | 17 | 1,697,914,841,346 | 1,697,914,755,969 | 1,697,914,840,844 | [
"college-football",
"sports-default",
"sec",
"football"
] | 2023-10-21 at 12 PM ET in Fayetteville, AR. Line: Arkansas -7. | N/A | null | null |
|
PilDktGHJmOAth5JfoCv | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,697,475,400,052 | 1,697,500,800,000 | Will W6 flight 1016 from Leeds to Katowice on 2023-10-16 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)? | will-w6-flight-1016-from-leeds-to-k | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-w6-flight-1016-from-leeds-to-k | {
"NO": 1546.2370190965726,
"YES": 97.70899566690987
} | 0.991646 | 0.882368 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,476 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,544,580,037 | 0.99 | 7 | 1,697,500,400,913 | 1,697,500,400,758 | -1 | [] | !!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/2v64uwhe | N/A | null | null |
|
o6uAiOCC8r7t8BGOXFOU | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,705,954,337,601 | 1,705,999,500,000 | Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-55d33b2dcbe0 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-55d33b2dcbe0 | {
"NO": 50,
"YES": 50
} | 0.098361 | 0.098361 | 50 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 0 | 0 | true | NO | 1,706,045,344,998 | 0.1 | 0 | 1,706,045,345,209 | 1,705,954,342,903 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-01-23 08:45 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 10:45 (UTC)
02:45 (Los Angeles)
05:45 (New York)
11:45 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 08:20
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
T2QQEtaFjOGMhQh5tNMw | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,704,145,216,209 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,711,511,989,950 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-b9a5bb45605b | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-b9a5bb45605b | {
"NO": 32.80554342439123,
"YES": 3794.1332450094205
} | 0.004792 | 0.357714 | 390 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,014.068697 | 0 | true | NO | 1,711,545,103,249 | 0 | 21 | 1,711,511,989,950 | 1,711,505,122,329 | 1,711,543,665,707 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
VcF6GISgtkEMnp2Ereff | h7lpE6G6rCaPwjrGtOgBuoxJanD3 | SamuelRichardson | Sam | 1,677,062,842,119 | 1,704,027,540,000 | Will I record a weight at or under 87kgs before the end of 2023? | will-i-record-a-weight-at-or-under | https://manifold.markets/SamuelRichardson/will-i-record-a-weight-at-or-under | {
"NO": 81.96617884679414,
"YES": 1094.9833357859252
} | 0.062998 | 0.473178 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,418.353455 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,055,735,186 | 0.06 | 18 | 1,704,055,735,551 | 1,703,952,977,662 | 1,703,177,916,829 | [
"weight",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | My weight is currently trending down as per the following chart:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWMrD_8vj17fCtwNw4UFR1Ek7Gb7VjqsCU5-oktr8Mo/edit?usp=sharing
Will I record an entry on this chart at or under 87kgs before the current year is up?
I record my weight consistently after a workout at the gym, always on the same scale (although I would say it's on the cheaper end of scales). A workout, and weight recording, is typically done at ~6:30pm on each day that I do a workout.
I tend to eat on the healthier side although I'm not explicitly watching what I eat. My wife and son are both vegetarian which means I also tend to also follow a mainly vegetarian diet.
I'm not trying particularly hard to gain muscle either, at most I'll supplement a workout with a protein shake afterwards but that's about the extent of it. A workout itself consists of around a 20 minute run at 10km per hour (working up to 30 minutes / 5ks) and weight training that alternates between arms, chest and legs.
CHANGELOG:
22/02/2023 - I'm 6ft 5" / 195cm tall.
23/02/2023 - I'm in my early 40s | N/A | h7lpE6G6rCaPwjrGtOgBuoxJanD3 | ||
kmP3twckWlDja38Z6hoo | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | Orca | Orcatron | 1,704,743,785,503 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c | 1,705,185,000,000 | NFL🏈: Wild Card Week -- Will the Cleveland Browns win their NFL game against the Houston Texans on 01/13? | nfl-wild-card-week-will-the-clevela | https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-wild-card-week-will-the-clevela | {
"NO": 266.4906181923013,
"YES": 389.179615892557
} | 0.46 | 0.554374 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 884.753529 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,203,317,573 | 0.46 | 17 | 1,710,206,774,765 | 1,705,184,980,782 | 1,705,203,651,736 | [
"nfl",
"nfl-playoffs",
"houston-texans",
"cleveland-browns"
] | As usual, I will close this market 1 HOUR after kickoff to maintain the predictive nature of this market. Please place all trades prior to that!! | N/A | Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2 | |
BFIxCByv1r3YzOPbpspV | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,704,142,237,772 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,705,457,274,610 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e6bb1b9bc714 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e6bb1b9bc714 | {
"NO": 66.34574782522724,
"YES": 14499.16136172816
} | 0.00132 | 0.224055 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15,584.308919 | 0 | true | NO | 1,705,457,274,610 | 0 | 17 | 1,705,457,275,852 | 1,705,441,385,305 | -1 | [] | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | N/A | tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2 | |
a1wBkg815TVTaeh6UreK | KMOIYhksuFVW7sUHMBLi97F3UNt2 | AaronLehmann | Aaron Lehmann | 1,679,240,273,136 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4XGc0m49XU1EMAvWdItuunNJCxqN7eJ7o4aw=s96-c | 1,704,030,642,069 | Will value stocks outperform growth stocks in 2023? | will-value-stocks-outperform-growth | https://manifold.markets/AaronLehmann/will-value-stocks-outperform-growth | {
"NO": 29.365965779188627,
"YES": 12288.585248775158
} | 0.001585 | 0.399184 | 330 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,367.208266 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,030,642,069 | 0 | 18 | 1,704,030,643,076 | 1,704,030,606,586 | 1,704,030,589,055 | [
"economics-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Resolves to YES if the Vanguard Value ETF (ticker: VTV) outperforms the Vanguard Growth ETF (ticker: VUG) on a total return basis (dividends reinvested) in 2023.
The total return calculations for the ETFs will be taken from Morningstar.com ("Total Return % (NAV)").
Standings as of March 19, 2023:
VTV (value) down 5.44% YTD
VUG (growth) up 11.46% YTD | N/A | KMOIYhksuFVW7sUHMBLi97F3UNt2 | |
GBVuteDreEBZ2sAkHj4c | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | strutheo | chris (strutheo) | 1,704,491,177,580 | 1,704,517,294,214 | Will my actions or CoolFold related activities cause another bug/crash/problem on Manifold again before EOY 2024? | will-my-actions-or-coolfold-related | https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-my-actions-or-coolfold-related | {
"NO": 4598.125670940396,
"YES": 0.36414723612369904
} | 0.99989 | 0.418323 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,142.494874 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,517,294,214 | 0.99 | 7 | 1,704,517,473,083 | 1,704,517,292,630 | 1,704,517,472,454 | [
"manifold-6748e065087e",
"internet",
"manifold-users",
"programming",
"web-frontend",
"bugs"
] | The first instance in 2024 was this market which had too many tags and caused server errors:
@/strutheo/coolfold-100-challenge-which-of-the | N/A | hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2 | ||
zmvN2CZNwPfTQ88jTyho | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | CamillePerrin | Camille | 1,706,986,128,319 | 1,707,116,400,000 | Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-05 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES) | will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-c12e1827a724 | https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-c12e1827a724 | {
"NO": 71.59807182406009,
"YES": 62.587908821860644
} | 0.19196 | 0.171957 | 70 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 36 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,167,940,059 | 0.19 | 3 | 1,707,167,940,332 | 1,707,072,166,254 | -1 | [
"flight-delays"
] | YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.
Market close time: 2024-02-05 07:00 (UTC)
Scheduled departure: 2024-02-05 - 09:00 (UTC)
01:00 (Los Angeles)
04:00 (New York)
10:00 (Paris)
Scheduled duration: 01:30
Fine print:
Resolution according to FlightStats
Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here)
Closes 2 hours before departure
Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.
If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments
Useful links:
Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24
BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.
Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)
Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic | N/A | YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2 | ||
6zqHxKlw3IEo8nyDls5q | PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2 | lisamarsh | Lisa Marsh | 1,671,819,167,551 | 1,697,784,301,197 | Will the U.K. Conservative Party lose at least three parliamentary seats in by-elections in 2023? | will-the-uk-conservative-party-lose | https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-uk-conservative-party-lose | {
"NO": 6469.431527791032,
"YES": 105.10265293428438
} | 0.98816 | 0.575533 | 650 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,925.513845 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,784,301,197 | 0.99 | 34 | 1,697,784,283,574 | 1,697,784,283,265 | 1,697,784,211,530 | [
"uk-politics",
"uk-conservative-party"
] | The Conservatives lost two seats in 2022, two in 2021, and none in 2020.
The question is about losses, not net losses (so it doesn't matter if the Conservatives gain seats in other by-elections).
These must be by-elections to the U.K. House of Commons, not any other body.
Losses are counted relative to the last election in the seat (eg if a Conservative MP defects to another party, calls a by-election and wins, like in Clacton in 2014, this counts as a loss).
The same constituency can be counted as a loss more than once (though this would require three by-elections in the seat in one year).
See here for a list of recent by-elections: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections_(2010%E2%80%93present) | N/A | null | ||
Gpt7Old3v4GJnad1zKF6 | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | Ziddletwix | Ziddletwix | 1,710,541,090,711 | 1,713,486,252,532 | Will "The Eras Tour" be streamed for more minutes in its first week on Disney+ than the highest total for "Suits"? | will-the-eras-tour-be-streamed-for | https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-eras-tour-be-streamed-for | {
"NO": 41.25753042645135,
"YES": 3769.8124461704297
} | 0.01 | 0.479967 | 380 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 5,544.181714 | 0 | true | NO | 1,713,486,252,532 | 0.01 | 17 | 1,713,486,280,132 | 1,713,486,097,791 | 1,713,486,279,597 | [
"taylor-swift",
"culture-default",
"music-f213cbf1eab5",
"movies",
"entertainment",
"entertainment-12ba84d9b720"
] | Source: the Nielsen SVOD streaming top 10: https://www.nielsen.com/data-center/top-ten/#streaming
In 2023, "Suits" enjoyed a massive surge in streaming popularity. According to the RatingsRyan.com Top 100 archive (which records these same Nielsen SVOD numbers), its week with the highest total was July 16-23 2023, where it was streamed a whopping 3.879 billion minutes.
Thus, this market resolves YES if "The Eras Tour (Taylor’s Version)” earns >3.879 billion minutes of streaming during the week of March 11-17.
Details
"The Eras Tour" releases mid-week, so keep that in mind when betting.
There's a fair bit of delay before the numbers are posted on the linked Nielsen website. If the Nielsen SVOD numbers are clearly reported elsewhere in the media beforehand, I can resolve early.
If for some reason I am never able to access the Nielsen SVOD numbers for "The Eras Tour", this resolves N/A (I don't see why that would happen).
Let me know if any aspects of resolution are unclear (new data source for me). | N/A | Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1 | null |
|
FMboOMmLqOcxRGwfk5xS | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | Joshua | Joshua | 1,696,709,296,254 | 1,706,255,940,000 | Will Destiny win the debate with Ben Shapiro? [According to Manifold] | will-destiny-win-the-debate-with-be | https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-destiny-win-the-debate-with-be | {
"NO": 6881.2256055765565,
"YES": 692.6467963026067
} | 0.979666 | 0.82905 | 1,060 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 23,397.163151 | 0 | true | YES | 1,706,301,390,674 | 0.98 | 90 | 1,710,218,536,112 | 1,706,251,065,125 | 1,706,446,833,977 | [
"destinygg",
"lex-fridman",
"debate",
"manifold-debate"
] | Destiny and Ben Shapiro have had a debate, which you can watch here
After watching the debate, you can rate the performance of Destiny and Shapiro in these two polls:
@/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-destinys-performanc
@/Joshua/how-do-you-rate-ben-shapiros-perfor
These polls, and this market, will close in two days.
If Destiny's debate performance has a higher average rating than Shapiro's when the polls close, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve NO. | N/A | JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2 | null |
|
HXBZ81Pdk2NuH71wn3uq | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | MetaculusBot | Metaculus Bot | 1,649,986,103,931 | 1,650,831,471,839 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2022-fre | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2022-fre | {
"NO": 52.770843229234444,
"YES": 2264.737120340319
} | 0.005316 | 0.18656 | 103.130368 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,245 | 0 | true | NO | 1,650,831,471,839 | 0.005316 | 10 | 1,649,986,103,931 | -1 | -1 | [
"metaculus"
] | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/ | N/A | null | null |
|
iShJUDHJGnrYF6e8oWPp | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,681,210,711,669 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,681,857,398,684 | Will Vaush's video "Trans Activists Are Very Angry With Joe Biden" reach 125k views by 4/18 9 A.M. PST? | will-vaushs-video-trans-activists-a | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-trans-activists-a | {
"NO": 18.265082852365595,
"YES": 11053.866018221102
} | 0.000242 | 0.12768 | 110 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 14,621.592354 | 0 | true | NO | 1,681,857,398,684 | 0 | 4 | 1,710,218,597,000 | 1,681,857,394,051 | 1,681,843,837,571 | [
"destinygg",
"vaush"
] | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/zPCWDHMjapc)If possible, post a screenshot of the viewcount. Otherwise, I will use the current viewcount number that I see when I resolve the market.
I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if the number of traders is too low. | N/A | null | null |
FLF2UfCogcXgoG7xUnwU | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | Panfilo | Panfilo | 1,715,131,846,253 | 1,715,921,280,205 | Will Israel invade Rafah in June 2024? | will-israel-invade-rafah-in-june-20 | https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-israel-invade-rafah-in-june-20 | {
"NO": 65.64730120547858,
"YES": 1075.6817048017836
} | 0.037489 | 0.389581 | 200 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,453 | 0 | true | NO | 1,715,921,280,205 | 0.04 | 11 | 1,715,921,280,205 | 1,715,921,147,403 | 1,715,700,191,622 | [
"wars",
"gaza",
"israel",
"arabisraeli-conflict",
"israelhamas-conflict-2023"
] | Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza. Because of the ambiguity of "en masse" and the potential for edge cases, other examples of things that would be strong arguments for Yes:
3+ Major news outlets such as CNN, the BBC, Al Jazeera, or the Washington Post describing the current Rafah operation as an invasion, territory taken, occupation, or taking an area such as western Rafah "under Israeli control".
The map here showing reported Israeli clearing operations across 10% or more of Rafah: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd
An overwhelming preponderance of other prediction markets with similar language resolving Yes. Not just markets describing strikes in Rafah, but its full-scale invasion and at least substantial clearance.
If Joe Biden considers his red line on a Rafah invasion to have been crossed, that will be enough for a Yes.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in May, this market will resolve No. | N/A | U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2 | ||
D0wd1zcqvvaNhLW70iJG | bmOm7aIVF6TmCRdDWpH0qPUlV0w2 | iRipTide | Cohen Wallace | 1,674,413,566,056 | 1,674,417,600,000 | Will Josh Allen throw for more TDs than Joe Burrow? | will-josh-allen-throw-for-more-tds | https://manifold.markets/iRipTide/will-josh-allen-throw-for-more-tds | {
"NO": 169.23771268576883,
"YES": 159.26140143837574
} | 0.59 | 0.575227 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 81.774991 | 0 | true | NO | 1,674,431,315,019 | 0.59 | 9 | 1,674,417,534,899 | 1,674,417,534,726 | -1 | [] | Jan 22, 11:54am: Will Josh Allen throw for more TDs than Joe Burrow? → Will Josh Allen throw for more TDs than Joe Burrow? | N/A | null | ||
oCOf559pQBvF1BTTbAFD | q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32 | NamesAreHard | NamesAreHard | 1,686,514,134,810 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Y7b2Qj-CHzI8sNluWCbWRdota_29t5Bhkyf2F=s96-c | 1,687,026,068,229 | Will Azerbaijan beat Estonia in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying? | will-azerbaijan-beat-estonia-in-the | https://manifold.markets/NamesAreHard/will-azerbaijan-beat-estonia-in-the | {
"NO": 11.543503869390609,
"YES": 2269.5597014224772
} | 0.003283 | 0.393027 | 130 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,678.137803 | 0 | true | NO | 1,687,026,068,229 | 0 | 6 | 1,687,024,353,189 | 1,687,024,352,997 | -1 | [
"soccer",
"football",
"sports-default",
"euros-2024"
] | Resolves YES if Azerbaijan wins against Estonia in their match on June 17, 2023.
Resolves NO if Estonia wins or the match ends in a draw.
https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/ | N/A | null | |
PcTiUocKzaG3aW6qCuuA | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,702,995,531,739 | 1,703,012,400,000 | [Daily] Will AMZN close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18? | daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec | https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-amzn-close-higher-on-dec | {
"NO": 180.98913700015888,
"YES": 299.0380597014129
} | 0.314163 | 0.430799 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 170.194759 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,020,173,705 | 0.31 | 10 | 1,703,020,137,483 | 1,703,011,105,793 | 1,703,020,136,758 | [
"stocks",
"economics-default",
"finance",
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah"
] | This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
utqS93s3dDCfJEqwjHsU | 8Be25mHPUdSU5yLjdLndpYiYCNW2 | SedibusResearch | Sedibus Research | 1,653,522,741,702 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJy3_e-_qsSoIMsdTwMD2lzb4xDdmpNG7niisRWx=s96-c | 1,672,549,140,000 | Will the Cell paper "Induction of pluripotent stem cells from mouse embryonic and adult fibroblast cultures by defined factors" surpass 30,000 citations by 2023? | will-the-cell-paper-induction-of-pl | https://manifold.markets/SedibusResearch/will-the-cell-paper-induction-of-pl | {
"NO": 351.00566287124786,
"YES": 2518.2348530466743
} | 0.03402 | 0.201704 | 540 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,902.815395 | 0 | true | NO | 1,675,498,053,353 | 0.03 | 8 | 1,675,511,871,100 | 1,672,548,394,448 | 1,675,511,868,191 | [
"science-default",
"please-resolve"
] | Citation count confirmed here:
https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=k6hepIAAAAAJ&citation_for_view=k6hepIAAAAAJ:hFOr9nPyWt4C
Paper identification:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2006.07.024
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867406009767 | N/A | null | null |
fyUEcuhuTLXRvgV2qgxg | 5XMvQhA3YgcTzyoJRiNqGWyuB9k2 | dreev | Daniel Reeves | 1,652,310,383,378 | 1,661,227,484,701 | Should market creation be more like offering a wager? | should-market-creation-be-more-like | https://manifold.markets/dreev/should-market-creation-be-more-like | {
"NO": 855.4982298033933,
"YES": 63.42740592728864
} | 0.947134 | 0.570501 | 221.215712 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,012.654569 | 0 | true | YES | 1,661,227,484,701 | 0.947134 | 19 | 1,661,207,022,646 | 1,661,198,601,166 | 1,661,207,016,335 | [] | This is a proposal that resolves to whatever the consensus is. I'm betting on my ability to make a convincing case! If the founders voice agreement/disagreement, it'll resolve YES/NO. Otherwise it resolves-to-PROB, beauty-contest style, post-quiescence. (That means whatever the final market probability is, that's what this resolves to, but the end date is extended until trading has quiesced.) Use case: I come across some dumb social science paper and think "ha! no way this replicates!" I would love to create a Manifold Market that's like "I will bet $100 at 9 to 1 odds that this study doesn't replicate". And then others can take me up on that and we're off to the races. Brainstorming on what's needed for that (see also http://biatob.com for inspiration): 1. Choose initial amount to stake. 2. An interface that lets you give a single initial probability if you want but optionally lets you give a probability range, so you're saying you'll bet with people who think the probability is outside this range. 3. Probably I've just described a limit order? Close date updated to 2022-07-07 8:59 am
Close date updated to 2022-08-03 11:59 pm
Close date updated to 2022-08-31 11:59 pm | N/A | null | null |
|
WGmzSpUrNVgCcvx0Mwvt | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,703,250,970,365 | 1,703,694,600,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 27th December than it closed on 22nd December? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-4bceb505f1ff | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-4bceb505f1ff | {
"NO": 4840.029870206848,
"YES": 100.24159259329377
} | 0.994741 | 0.796638 | 310 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,388.197304 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,696,036,642 | 0.99 | 18 | 1,703,698,190,607 | 1,703,694,529,357 | 1,703,698,188,864 | [
"ftse-100",
"stock-marketdaily",
"sccsq4",
"uk"
] | Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Wednesday 27th December than it did on Friday 22nd December?
The market is closed on the 25th (Christmas Day) and the 26th (Boxing Day) so this market represents one trading day.
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
MNx05BaJ8yj3QMwV8sCz | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,703,015,528,411 | 1,703,185,200,000 | [Daily] Will GOOG close higher on December 21 than it closed on December 20? | daily-will-goog-close-higher-on-dec-e2e544073971 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-goog-close-higher-on-dec-e2e544073971 | {
"NO": 209.7556829752203,
"YES": 117.53590207431195
} | 0.741085 | 0.615956 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 164.399038 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,222,360,079 | 0.74 | 5 | 1,703,222,355,645 | 1,703,177,296,142 | 1,703,222,355,242 | [
"hawsbollah",
"stocks",
"sccsq4"
] | This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | ||
uicyBpvWywFssv4YMBn8 | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,695,938,209,715 | 1,696,031,400,000 | Will DL flight 2110 from Seattle to San Diego on 2023-09-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-dl-flight-2110-from-seattle-to | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-dl-flight-2110-from-seattle-to | {
"NO": 255.39174642754273,
"YES": 180.20250139910797
} | 0.94 | 0.917042 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 299.075309 | 0 | true | YES | 1,696,087,758,522 | 0.94 | 10 | 1,696,030,918,477 | 1,696,030,918,351 | -1 | [] | Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/5e8aeux6 | N/A | null | null |
|
MiFtgK4plz8kvN8cJir0 | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | RJPerez | RJ Perez | 1,703,612,294,243 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c | 1,704,056,525,113 | Will the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | will-the-buffalo-bills-beat-the-new-cebf9e82bcc5 | https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-buffalo-bills-beat-the-new-cebf9e82bcc5 | {
"NO": 3687.7412719567374,
"YES": 139.16476254390528
} | 0.99 | 0.78885 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,721.904889 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,056,533,121 | 0.99 | 16 | 1,704,056,533,442 | 1,704,056,340,142 | -1 | [
"football",
"buffalo-bills",
"nfl",
"sports-default",
"new-england-patriots"
] | Yes - Bills win
No - Patriots win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | N/A | XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2 | |
ulGpLBMwSYsWiMZRTMRY | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,688,064,030,257 | 1,690,134,970,945 | Will an African rider win a stage at the 2023 Tour de France? | will-an-african-rider-win-a-stage-a | https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-an-african-rider-win-a-stage-a | {
"NO": 12.321952199927182,
"YES": 22595.831552787648
} | 0.000286 | 0.344371 | 170 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 22,625.497847 | 0 | true | NO | 1,690,134,970,945 | 0 | 8 | 1,690,134,960,317 | 1,690,134,960,189 | -1 | [
"road-bicycle-racing",
"tour-de-france"
] | Resolves YES if a cyclist from Africa wins a stage at the 2023 Tour de France. I believe for this tour this would only include Eritrea or South Africa. | N/A | null | null |
|
hb4u8HXU9RoH75emvJzK | 4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2 | VivaLaPanda | VivaLaPanda | 1,667,509,429,981 | 1,693,607,751,111 | Will Stripe have further layoffs in 2023 | will-stripe-have-further-layoffs-in | https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-stripe-have-further-layoffs-in | {
"NO": 1718.9635758415911,
"YES": 42.79565060106092
} | 0.993029 | 0.78004 | 510 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,928.686368 | 0 | true | YES | 1,693,607,751,111 | 0.99 | 22 | 1,693,607,757,483 | 1,693,370,982,502 | 1,693,607,757,015 | [
"technology-default"
] | This question resolves to YES if Stripe formally announces that it is shrinking its workforce any time during 2023 | N/A | null | ||
7k51cHV4gR4Uw0AfP9IC | K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3 | Tetraspace | Tetra | 1,651,609,958,569 | 1,667,865,600,000 | Will Charlie Crist be elected governor of Florida in the 2022 election? | if-charlie-crist-is-the-democratic | https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/if-charlie-crist-is-the-democratic | {
"NO": 348.7782901491615,
"YES": 522.7710151407393
} | 0.048705 | 0.07127 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 688.177488 | 0 | true | NO | 1,668,016,778,536 | 0.048705 | 11 | 1,667,862,007,905 | 1,667,862,007,492 | 1,664,447,400,356 | [
"politics-default",
"us-2022-midterms"
] | Oct 2, 4:28pm: If Charlie Crist is the Democratic nominee for the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, will he become governor? → Will Charlie Crist be elected governor of Florida in the 2022 election? | N/A | null | null |
|
7m5ldLqoZqMff5CZnQk5 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,702,850,238,651 | 1,702,940,400,000 | Will SOL close higher on December 18 than it closed on December 17? | will-sol-close-higher-on-december-1-8c99c1e57be6 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-1-8c99c1e57be6 | {
"NO": 850.0128942465338,
"YES": 85.46631107349026
} | 0.925686 | 0.55604 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,314.991603 | 0 | true | YES | 1,702,948,156,056 | 0.93 | 18 | 1,702,948,152,418 | 1,702,940,287,017 | 1,702,948,151,664 | [
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices",
"hawsbollah",
"sccsq4"
] | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
View the live price
Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page
Previous Close: $71.09
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS | N/A | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | ||
SONO4KEkM71ZvOEGZQYq | iVmTxhomrqPfZOZx4M5fZKi0qEX2 | HIPSTERPOTAMUS | HIPSTERPOTAMUS | 1,680,035,766,586 | 1,698,607,918,837 | Will the next Beatles Album officially reissued/remixed be Rubber Soul? | will-the-next-beatles-album-officia | https://manifold.markets/HIPSTERPOTAMUS/will-the-next-beatles-album-officia | {
"NO": 126.74354512298198,
"YES": 67.23849173619493
} | 0.71 | 0.564996 | 90 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 103.431372 | 0 | true | NO | 1,698,607,918,837 | 0.71 | 4 | 1,695,273,072,425 | 1,695,273,071,958 | -1 | [
"music-f213cbf1eab5"
] | With the success of 2022's super deluxe reissue of Revolver, Rubber Soul seems like an appealing target for the next Giles Martin lead remix.
This market will resolve YES if the next officially released new mix of a Beatles album is Rubber Soul (e.g. A new Super Deluxe Rubber Soul album is issued with a 2023 mix). It will resolve NO if the next album to resolve that criteria is not Rubber Soul. The market will resolve NO if no album fulfills this criteria by 1/1/2025
| N/A | null | ||
fqTliiHgLq6y0sZ0eoLJ | cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1 | DanMan314 | Dan | 1,697,762,608,133 | 1,698,256,590,178 | Will Patrick McHenry remain Speaker Pro Tempore until a new Speaker is elected? | will-patrick-mchenry-stay-speaker-p | https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-patrick-mchenry-stay-speaker-p | {
"NO": 2283.272435339757,
"YES": 76.22835388218266
} | 0.990392 | 0.774836 | 190 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 4,295.665111 | 0 | true | YES | 1,698,256,590,178 | 0.99 | 14 | 1,698,256,584,847 | 1,698,256,584,729 | -1 | [
"118th-congress",
"us-politics",
"politics-default"
] | Apparently he threatened to quit if pushed to pass legislation with a vote to expand his powers.
If a new Speaker is elected, and Patrick McHenry has continuously remained the Speaker Pro Tempore, this market resolves YES.
This market resolves NO if at any point before the election of a new speaker, Patrick McHenry resigns, is kicked out, dies, or leaves the post of Speaker Pro Tempore in any other way. If legislation is passed that empowers him and gives him a new title, I'll still consider him "speaker pro tempore", unless he is officially made Speaker (at which point this market would resolve YES anyway).
| N/A | null | null |
|
dSCFLGMXeimHhQnDlrd1 | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,699,833,963,308 | 1,703,876,400,000 | Will the Nasdaq (IXIC) close higher on Fri December 29th than it closed on Fri December 22nd? {WEEKLY} | will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-86e29b96a5c9 | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-86e29b96a5c9 | {
"NO": 267.34423506017004,
"YES": 205.3665720701
} | 0.67295 | 0.612496 | 230 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 184.108636 | 0 | true | YES | 1,703,888,313,271 | 0.67 | 10 | 1,703,888,920,858 | 1,703,874,834,986 | 1,703,888,920,371 | [
"stock-marketweekly",
"sccsq4",
"nasdaq"
] | Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)
Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)
Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)
Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash
Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.
Previous Close :
[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
| N/A | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | null |
|
fCvAdtu4BfMOvsJjZeW4 | jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52 | MetaculusBot | Metaculus Bot | 1,680,885,989,401 | 1,696,935,600,000 | Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (New Left) | which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-0eea791a2a7e | https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-0eea791a2a7e | {
"NO": 118.46773080659284,
"YES": 1933.7195110676057
} | 0.01188 | 0.164055 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,192.280489 | 0 | true | NO | 1,699,652,199,051 | 0.01 | 9 | 1,696,159,292,642 | 1,696,159,292,336 | -1 | [
"metaculus"
] | From https://metaculus.com/questions/15770/new-left/ | N/A | null | ||
97Ubi0SGKMAisBY9dett | 8xOBbiqjnXVINbig3kXAp3XzEJs2 | WrongoPhD | Professor Wrongo | 1,696,256,879,733 | 1,697,229,907,835 | Will Donald Trump express ambiguous support for removing Kevin McCarthy as speaker before Oct 31? | will-donald-trump-express-ambiguous | https://manifold.markets/WrongoPhD/will-donald-trump-express-ambiguous | {
"NO": 3711.2893806879806,
"YES": 231.9405809282416
} | 0.930575 | 0.455842 | 1,090 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 7,083.829357 | 0 | true | YES | 1,697,229,919,767 | 0.93 | 56 | 1,697,230,187,153 | 1,697,229,600,316 | 1,697,230,186,392 | [
"donald-trump",
"matt-gaetz",
"us-politics"
] | So far, Trump has avoided commenting on whether or not he supports Matt Gaetz's attempt to remove Kevin McCarthy as speaker.
"I don't know anything about those efforts, but I like both of them very much," Trump told reporters in Iowa.
"I think it's too early [to comment], it just happened a little while ago. I've always had a great relationship with [McCarthy], he said very nice things about me and the job I've done, so I appreciate that."
Before October 31st, will it be reported or captured on video that Trump expresses support for getting rid of Kevin McCarthy even if the statement is only ambiguously in support of removal? For instance , this would resolve as yes with the statement, "I think Kevin's done a great job but a lot of people are saying the it's time for Kevin to move on." Please see my related market about weather Trump makes a statement unambiguously supporting removal.
Only statements created after the creation of this market will count.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/WrongoPhD/will-donald-trump-express-unambiguo?r=V3JvbmdvUGhE) | N/A | null | null |
|
vfRaZxYmnFy3peDJlF86 | BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2 | Haws | Haws | 1,699,386,242,563 | 1,699,657,200,000 | Will BTC close higher on November 10 than it closed on November 9? | will-btc-close-higher-on-november-8-e6b8ec2356c4 | https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-btc-close-higher-on-november-8-e6b8ec2356c4 | {
"NO": 2236.066661073336,
"YES": 153.6050604247693
} | 0.97137 | 0.699765 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,182.339595 | 0 | true | YES | 1,699,662,717,516 | 0.97 | 20 | 1,699,662,707,101 | 1,699,657,054,288 | 1,699,662,706,594 | [
"btc-november-forecasting-league",
"economics-default",
"crypto-prices",
"sccsq4",
"hawsbollah"
] | Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $36,706.50
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 750
3 500
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview] | N/A | null | null |
|
109ZwdVgjrBly08luXV5 | zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1 | _deleted_ | ~deleted~ | 1,710,349,868,453 | 1,714,619,769,773 | Will Google search's market share (worldwide) go under 90% in 2024? | will-google-searchs-market-share-wo | https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-google-searchs-market-share-wo | {
"NO": 1312.7108703362692,
"YES": 29.380906593852586
} | 0.961916 | 0.361149 | 340 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,348.006155 | 0 | true | YES | 1,714,619,769,773 | 0.96 | 19 | 1,714,619,773,987 | 1,714,617,132,567 | 1,714,619,772,437 | [
"google-trends",
"ai",
"google-ef2cf716540e",
"ai-impacts",
"big-tech",
"search"
] | [image]https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share | N/A | EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1 | null |
|
ZFt3BXrYDHTMyfXelZP9 | EB38gVKAlYQHulWNFyZ7pnyT7Um1 | HelenD | Helen D | 1,695,251,542,228 | 1,695,263,956,249 | Will Pittsburgh Pirates beat Chicago Cubs ⚾️ 9/20/2023? | will-pittsburgh-pirates-beat-chicag-3dd602ed146f | https://manifold.markets/HelenD/will-pittsburgh-pirates-beat-chicag-3dd602ed146f | {
"NO": 2940.81461033355,
"YES": 71.7012803929972
} | 0.995105 | 0.832122 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 3,870.585695 | 0 | true | YES | 1,695,263,956,249 | 1 | 12 | 1,695,263,925,760 | 1,695,263,925,411 | -1 | [
"mlb",
"baseball",
"sports-default"
] | Game Sept 20 @CHC 6:40PM Central Time | N/A | null | null |
|
dTfVwWM66nMBtFLefcvB | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,685,810,232,583 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,690,840,800,000 | Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of July? | will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-by-d39b0ea06b4f | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-jimmy-carter-still-be-alive-by-d39b0ea06b4f | {
"NO": 7175.493075852521,
"YES": 488.53030332326006
} | 0.990905 | 0.881205 | 750 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,986.218433 | 0 | true | YES | 1,690,914,690,402 | 0.99 | 36 | 1,710,456,586,620 | 1,690,838,331,920 | 1,690,812,816,297 | [
"2024-us-presidential-election",
"world-default",
"death-markets",
"jimmy-carter"
] | [markets] | N/A | null | |
WFeFZThDTP3GPm8dZljz | 9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13 | johnleoks | johnleoks | 1,683,512,726,605 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c | 1,683,743,978,906 | Democrat vs Republican (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of Ṁ10k per) | democrat-vs-republican-3-day-market-b573fdacad3e | https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/democrat-vs-republican-3-day-market-b573fdacad3e | {
"NO": 10318.407720011197,
"YES": 10.02580020307505
} | 0.99943 | 0.630122 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 10,219.00224 | 0 | true | YES | 1,683,743,978,906 | 0.88 | 7 | 1,683,743,975,061 | 1,683,743,974,667 | 1,683,743,962,714 | [
"gambling",
"whale-watching",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"fun"
] | Yes = Democrat
No = Republican
I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.
Rules
The largest single limit order you can put down is Ṁ10k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:
Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a Ṁ100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.
Prevent whales from putting down multiple Ṁ10k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.
Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.
Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a Ṁ50k or Ṁ100k limit order and automatically win.
If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.
After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.
Market closes on 5/10/23 9 A.M. PST | N/A | null | |
8R6rvaCqLBHu8HGVpp9F | AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2 | MatthewBarnett | Matthew Barnett | 1,646,181,766,978 | 1,646,196,659,970 | Will Biden utter "cold war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022? | will-biden-utter-cold-war-during-th | https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-biden-utter-cold-war-during-th | {
"NO": 100,
"YES": 100
} | 0.014398 | 0.014398 | 100 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 602.279075 | 0 | true | NO | 1,646,196,659,970 | 0.014398 | 6 | 1,646,181,766,978 | -1 | -1 | [
"politics-default"
] | This market resolves to YES if Joe Biden utters the words "cold war" during the State of the Union address on March 1st 2022. Otherwise it resolves to NO. I will defer to official transcripts. | N/A | null | null |
|
bwDdopjdKh0fVhObhdKg | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | SimonGrayson | Simon Grayson | 1,703,695,690,463 | 1,703,781,000,000 | Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 28th December than it closed on 27th December? | will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-e3a6e8e03630 | https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-e3a6e8e03630 | {
"NO": 245.0453461040316,
"YES": 159.82218346592344
} | 0.64 | 0.536928 | 210 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 489.734923 | 0 | true | NO | 1,703,782,770,809 | 0.64 | 10 | 1,703,782,771,188 | 1,703,780,996,455 | 1,703,782,483,323 | [
"sccsq4",
"uk",
"stock-marketdaily",
"ftse-100"
] | Note - I'm putting up daily FTSE 100 markets for Thursday and Friday but I won't be adding daily markets from January onwards.
Manifold's admins have made it clear that they're not keen on these daily markets and that they don't think they add value to the platform. I will be putting up a market on the FTSE 100's performance for the year and I will also keep putting up other UK economic markets such as the ones below:
@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202
@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-2e041c940093
Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Thursday 28th December than it did on Wednesday 27th December?
The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.
The official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling "FTSE 100" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!
Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov | N/A | rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2 | ||
oGesavnUoQjN9kOaTAeB | HaEhdLiJR5RYzUWnJI2sJHdylWn2 | Inimicizie | Inimicizie blog | 1,693,491,485,408 | 1,704,125,727,402 | Will Giorgia Meloni have a phone call or a bilateral meeting with Vladimir Putin before 2024? | will-giorgia-meloni-have-a-phone-ca | https://manifold.markets/Inimicizie/will-giorgia-meloni-have-a-phone-ca | {
"NO": 153.9220277880289,
"YES": 1866.579731131543
} | 0.022001 | 0.214333 | 290 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,743.067648 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,125,727,402 | 0.02 | 16 | 1,704,125,729,092 | 1,704,122,645,790 | -1 | [
"ukrainerussia-war",
"italy",
"russia",
"geopolitics",
"politics-default",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Giorgia Meloni avrà una telefonata o un incontro bilaterale con Vladimir Putin prima del 2024? | N/A | HaEhdLiJR5RYzUWnJI2sJHdylWn2 | null |
|
1g1NS3jMZW6olccwtwfC | WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2 | XComhghall | XComhghall | 1,675,304,105,655 | 1,678,937,406,450 | Will U.S. inflation be higher in February than January 2023? | will-us-inflation-be-higher-in-febr | https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-us-inflation-be-higher-in-febr | {
"NO": 127.31238173032943,
"YES": 14584.61807397856
} | 0.002208 | 0.202225 | 370 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 14,630.933431 | 0 | true | NO | 1,678,937,406,450 | 0 | 19 | 1,678,937,361,693 | 1,678,937,360,545 | 1,678,852,702,966 | [
"economics-default"
] | Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in CPI in the U.S. in February 2023 (6.0%) be higher than in January 2023 (6.4%)?
Equality resolves to NO. | N/A | null | ||
7kQAiVI18xTTcI2dpPMU | 946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2 | egroj | JAAM | 1,673,626,325,244 | 1,701,268,212,054 | Did US life expectancy increase for the Native American population in 2022? | did-us-life-expectancy-increase-for-1bf3187fbf0b | https://manifold.markets/egroj/did-us-life-expectancy-increase-for-1bf3187fbf0b | {
"NO": 23620.475897037424,
"YES": 163.86985660211576
} | 0.996196 | 0.64502 | 980 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 25,590.640695 | 0 | true | YES | 1,701,268,212,054 | 1 | 58 | 1,701,268,207,495 | 1,701,268,197,748 | 1,701,268,206,661 | [
"science-default",
"past-events"
] | Resolves YES if the provisional life expectancy at birth estimate for the non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native population in 2022 is strictly larger than the final estimate for 2021 as reported by the National Vital Statistics System.
The provisional life expectancy for 2021 was 65.2 years (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr023.pdf). I will update the description when the final estimate for 2021 is available. However, this market will resolve based on the provisional estimate for 2022 (likely released by August 2023).
For reference life expectancy for this population has decreased each year since 2019. | N/A | null | null |
|
LUEhBZOrLVyjDuzzwctG | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | AmmonLam | Ammon Lam | 1,707,975,723,653 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c | 1,709,299,524,069 | Will Chatgpt experience outage on 4 or more days in Feb 2024? | will-chatgpt-experience-outage-on-4 | https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-chatgpt-experience-outage-on-4 | {
"NO": 13.828893836427596,
"YES": 91617.8535632983
} | 0.000084 | 0.357252 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 92,459.922845 | 0 | true | NO | 1,709,299,524,069 | 0 | 19 | 1,709,299,524,662 | 1,709,299,520,964 | -1 | [] | https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69
Includes Partial outage and Major outage
e.g. there are 4 outage days in Jan 2024 | N/A | hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2 | |
lpFtFadKnNM7Tt0jl893 | i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2 | Zardoru | Zardoru | 1,682,595,389,893 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi2zcxQEIJb0YhDpOdYy6Ff9AQWyMuv4u7cdkwukA=s96-c | 1,704,760,035,877 | Will Élisabeth Borne remains Prime Minister of France until next presidential election | will-elisabeth-borne-remains-prime | https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-elisabeth-borne-remains-prime | {
"NO": 116.46421108852302,
"YES": 8195.138694587966
} | 0.003942 | 0.217842 | 360 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 12,615.133362 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,760,035,877 | 0 | 18 | 1,704,786,203,523 | 1,704,734,664,574 | 1,704,786,202,949 | [
"france"
] | Market resolves YES if Élisabeth Borne is still Prime Minister the day of first round of french presidential election (between 8 and 23 April 2027, not fixed yet).
Resolves NO immediatly if she is replaced before. | N/A | i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2 | |
MTe5nRtyQK0pBh2OMY4n | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,695,162,091,549 | 1,695,236,400,000 | Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on September 20th than it closed on September 19th? [Ṁana Leaderboard] | will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-899315bf28ff | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-899315bf28ff | {
"NO": 1122.2471565001665,
"YES": 160.5753753943915
} | 0.979283 | 0.871194 | 250 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 2,919.316196 | 0 | true | NO | 1,695,244,854,178 | 0.98 | 12 | 1,695,253,500,860 | 1,695,236,370,648 | 1,695,253,500,245 | [
"stocks",
"-sircryptomind-crypto-stock",
"finance",
"economics-default"
] | RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).
Predictions close at ̶ ̶2̶15p̶m̶ ̶E̶T̶ 1 315pm ET(715pm UTC)
1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!
Previous Close:
[image]Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
BONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ▲SC-CS-Q4-23▲ | N/A | null | null |
|
kZC6U4zOZJvJ6JOUbAqf | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | JCDM | Jimmy Carter Death Markets | 1,706,942,321,954 | 1,707,061,304,322 | Will Global Co2 PPM be higher on Feb 3 than Feb 2? | will-global-co2-ppm-be-higher-on-fe-133954a46ef8 | https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-global-co2-ppm-be-higher-on-fe-133954a46ef8 | {
"NO": 10.991994176806893,
"YES": 56.22268271518724
} | 0.033121 | 0.149089 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,681.054439 | 0 | true | NO | 1,707,061,304,322 | 0.03 | 6 | 1,707,382,757,785 | 1,707,056,125,548 | 1,707,382,757,148 | [
"daily-markets",
"world-default",
"co2"
] | Resolves to: https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_trend_gl.txt
Market closes at 11:59pm EST on Feb 4
Market resolves once they have updated the daily PPM.
Resolves Yes if global Co2 PPM is higher than on Feb 3 than on Feb 2
Resolves No if global Co2 PPM is same or lower.
The global Co2 PPM is the first number on the left starting with 422. The second is a seasonally adjusted value.
Changes to market inspired by Christopher Randles
| N/A | ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1 | ||
YEbTrZyQ0GUcl4ygw5RF | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | ScottLawrence | Scott Lawrence | 1,679,844,980,726 | 1,704,067,140,000 | Will Russia have nuclear weapons in Belarus at the end of 2023? | will-russia-have-nuclear-weapons-in | https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-russia-have-nuclear-weapons-in | {
"NO": 2198.5538543789553,
"YES": 526.1852008489487
} | 0.93808 | 0.783823 | 770 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 15,443.541839 | 0 | true | YES | 1,704,068,820,584 | 0.94 | 42 | 1,704,068,821,002 | 1,702,850,444,195 | 1,687,627,609,220 | [
"russia",
"nuclear-risk",
"new-years-resolutions-2024"
] | Context: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html | N/A | FSqqnRObrqf0GX63gp5Hk4lUvqn1 | ||
qkSbWv6l5JU3TPs7PSWv | k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2 | LivInTheLookingGlass | Olivia🏳️⚧️ | 1,673,076,424,207 | 1,677,643,200,000 | Before March, will the House hold a vote on removing the Speaker of the House? | before-march-will-the-house-hold-a | https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/before-march-will-the-house-hold-a | {
"NO": 147.74164263439053,
"YES": 6478.29777539188
} | 0.004647 | 0.169918 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 8,468.483018 | 0 | true | NO | 1,680,971,139,482 | 0 | 18 | 1,680,971,138,342 | 1,677,640,917,803 | 1,680,971,136,333 | [
"speaker-of-the-house-election",
"politics-default",
"us-politics",
"olivia"
] | This market will resolve YES if, before March 1st 2023, the House of Representatives holds a vote that would remove the Speaker of the House from office. The outcome of such a vote will not have any bearing on the resolution of this market, as long as the vote takes place. This vote takes the form of a "motion to vacate the chair"; see Wikipedia article.
Context: In the 117th Congress, only a party caucus or conference (i.e. House Democrats or House Republicans, acting by a majority) can force the House to hold a vote to remove the Speaker. See https://rollcall.com/2023/01/02/mccarthy-releases-house-rules-package-still-short-speaker-votes/. This rule is codified as clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX of the Standing Rules of the House.
The rules package released by House Republicans would lower that threshold to five Republican members. In particular, Section 3(c) of the rules package would provide that "During the One Hundred Eighteenth 3 Congress, clause 2(a)(3) of rule IX shall not apply to any 4 resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker that 5 is offered by a Member of the majority party caucus or 6 conference and has accumulated 4 cosponsors from such 7 party caucus or conference at the time it is offered."
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/octothorpe/during-the-118th-congress-will-the)
Close date updated to 2023-02-28 11:00 pm | N/A | null | ||
aeXIIwa9oFvSQyOqw0mv | 4iz7kGfEvvM7DYx96m1ZmM2Zn0l1 | mikeangelo | Mike | 1,703,370,591,364 | https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJTYbUl2Gcx8fPztyKD3jYtiWheIZPkX_JMwiVBdywmwNw=s96-c | 1,704,224,974,890 | Will Claudine Gay still be president of Harvard University on February 1, 2024? | will-claudine-gay-still-be-presiden-55ccbdd46486 | https://manifold.markets/mikeangelo/will-claudine-gay-still-be-presiden-55ccbdd46486 | {
"NO": 239.85349362372745,
"YES": 15160.934679751072
} | 0.004339 | 0.215977 | 985 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 26,146.713045 | 0 | true | NO | 1,704,224,974,890 | 0 | 57 | 1,704,224,975,731 | 1,704,223,749,912 | 1,704,220,404,089 | [
"harvard",
"colleges-universities",
"us-politics",
"claudine-gay"
] | Will Claudine Gay still be the president of Harvard University on February 1st, 2024 EST?
I'm curious whether or not Harvard has the balls to axe her after the plagiarism accusations. It doesn’t matter how it happens or if she retains a lesser position; this will resolve YES if she has the same position she has now (President), NO if she does not. | N/A | 4iz7kGfEvvM7DYx96m1ZmM2Zn0l1 | |
B5GTKRL00L5I9GasOefR | OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2 | SirCryptomind | SirCryptomind | 1,699,489,830,675 | 1,701,111,600,000 | Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on Mon. November 27th than on Fri. November 24th? {DAILY} | will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-8e55de2c322e | https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-8e55de2c322e | {
"NO": 299.02293388831754,
"YES": 436.46578662937793
} | 0.25 | 0.3273 | 350 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 1,992.352094 | 0 | true | NO | 1,701,124,022,449 | 0.25 | 19 | 1,701,124,013,368 | 1,701,111,585,608 | 1,701,124,012,718 | [
"sccsq4",
"finance",
"economics-default",
"stocks"
] | DJI closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)
Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)
Previous Close :
[image]
Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
WEEKLY MARKET
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-e78ad05b3f0a) | N/A | null | null |
|
4hv654WDMkZ2DNiq6jEP | 8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1 | wingman_web3 | Wingman | 1,691,821,493,204 | 1,691,985,600,000 | Will LX flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-08-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)? | will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-9b9d26c76ca2 | https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-9b9d26c76ca2 | {
"NO": 251.5031912201459,
"YES": 95.50942746451757
} | 0.85 | 0.682735 | 150 | BINARY | cpmm-1 | 139.655956 | 0 | true | YES | 1,692,063,652,634 | 0.85 | 8 | 1,691,980,546,748 | 1,691,980,546,607 | -1 | [] | Copied from Wingman: https://tinyurl.com/2axssea8 | N/A | null | null |