Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

jzVwuMLIjxln4j4x2eVV

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023) gross more than $1B worldwide before 2024?

will-the-super-mario-bros-movie-202-76b3eafed240

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-super-mario-bros-movie-202-76b3eafed240

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6718170/ Will resolve based on the Box Office Mojo reported numbers. Will resolve YES if it reaches $1 Billion worldwide, or NO if it hasn't reached $1 Billion worldwide in the Box Office Mojo total by Jan 1, 2024.

N/A

Ga91kZbNMxY9krZ6vVfC

4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1

CarsonGale

Carson Gale

Will Manifold ever invite platform users to participate in its primary funding rounds?

will-manifold-ever-invite-platform

https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-manifold-ever-invite-platform

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves as YES if, through whatever selection criteria, Manifold accepts funding from interested users of its platform. The primary rationale for accepting funding needs to be the investor's status as a platform user, not their status as an employee, company partner, or other form of stakeholder. A YES resolution is compatible with requiring potential investors to meet check size thresholds, citizenship requirements, and any other prerequisites for private company investing. An offer does not need to be extended to all Manifold users for a YES resolution. Oct 22, 6:06am: Will Manifold ever invite platform users to participate in it's primary funding rounds? → Will Manifold ever invite platform users to participate in its primary funding rounds?

N/A

O6TtBUW1GqERp4nG6YOJ

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

itsTomekK

Tomek ⚡ K

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

Will Kanye West appear on Jordan Peterson's podcast by the end of 2023?

will-kanye-west-appear-on-jordan-pe

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-kanye-west-appear-on-jordan-pe

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://www.jordanbpeterson.com/podcast/ https://www.youtube.com/user/JordanPetersonVideos Will resolve to YES if on Jordan Peterson's channels there is a published interview/episode/discussion with Kanye West. Please note, to resolve YES, appearance of Ye must be longer than 10 minutes.

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

7nIKAAlufekJtJn6FqDy

1CRaxVu0I9XNhYzRLh18yVEKa4G2

Domer

Domer

Will a roll call vote be held in 2023 on the expulsion or condemnation of Jamaal Bowman?

will-a-roll-call-vote-be-held-in-20

https://manifold.markets/Domer/will-a-roll-call-vote-be-held-in-20

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican Congresswoman from NY, has written a resolution that would expel Jamaal Bowman (for pulling a fire alarm to delay a vote) from the House of Representatives. Will this resolution - or ANY resolution on Bowman's expulsion, condemnation, or anything equivalent (i.e. "reprimand") - get a roll call vote in 2023? The result of the vote will have no bearing on this market. Only a vote itself.

N/A

i2RKbWmD9hJZHtcjbbIs

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

Will the Blumhouse horror film "Imaginary" (2024) have a Metacritic score >50?

will-the-blumhouse-horror-film-imag-77023daa4ab1

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-blumhouse-horror-film-imag-77023daa4ab1

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

"Imaginary" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/imaginary/ I will resolve based on the Metascore on March 22nd (two weeks after release). For reference, here are the Metascores for some other Blumhouse horror films: Five Nights at Freddy's: 33 M3GAN: 72 Night Swim: 43 Other details: This is based on critics, not audiences. I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, & I won't try to compute that myself). I don't expect the score to be shifting much two weeks after release, but just in case, it will resolve based on what I see whenever I happen to check on that date. "Imaginary" releases on March 8th, with the following plot synopsis: Returning to her childhood home, a woman discovers that the imaginary friend she left behind is very real and unhappy she abandoned him.

N/A

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

JNvUanbdlJIlxf7QtvMW

BmyV8CvJyActtCWcN3jBL2rCox82

SebastianWorms

Sebastian Worms

Will Ukraine damage another Russian navy ship by September 30

will-ukraine-damage-another-russian

https://manifold.markets/SebastianWorms/will-ukraine-damage-another-russian

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Ukraine has been making increasing use of underwater suicide drones to make up for its lack of navy and target Russian naval ships in the Black sea. On 24/05, the Ivan Kurs was targeted by such USV, although Russia claimed its counter-measure proved effective. On 04/08, the landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak was damaged in the port of Novorossiysk by one such drone. This question resolves YES if a ship operated by the Russian Navy is damaged by Ukraine by 30/09. Cases were a ship was attacked but damage is not proven would not count. The attack doesn't have to be done by USVs. See related question: "Will Ukraine sink another Russian navy ship by september 30".

N/A

wm8cGSJQ4P4qZMV9IN7C

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will the film 'The Boy and the Heron' win the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film?

will-the-film-how-do-you-live-direc-f32229fcd0a3

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-film-how-do-you-live-direc-f32229fcd0a3

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Do_You_Live%3F_(film)

N/A

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

IHgxvARtGnBlUToQUBTl

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will Australia make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Final?

will-australia-make-it-to-the-2023

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-australia-make-it-to-the-2023

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup The 2023 Rugby World Cup Final match is scheduled to take place on the 28th of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.

N/A

uC9DkCP7QZqsP7qvCcKy

5U9bXdFwGxSmZxA8E9ty0YxK1jU2

yomun

yomun

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml5NruHxe8LooEB8o58IdxFc1yAoC-vCQyyq8PW=s96-c

Will facebook anounce a future integration of Oculus with a brain machine interface before the end of 2022 ?

will-facebook-anounce-a-future-inte

https://manifold.markets/yomun/will-facebook-anounce-a-future-inte

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This question resolve to yes if during an event or in an official press release, facebook or one of its big subsidiaries announce working on integrating a brain machine interface to an oculus product or to another facebook owned, hardware platform for virtual reality. The question was prompted by this articles where it says that in 2017, facebook revealed that it was working on a brain machine wearable interface. https://roboticsbiz.com/the-history-of-brain-computer-interfaces-bcis-timeline/ Aug 21, 4:26pm: Aug 21, 5:03pm: Close date updated to 2022-11-13 10:48 pm Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:55 pm Close date updated to 2022-11-14 1:00 am

N/A

wCBi4StwlpZ6bySFuibs

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will Senate Democrats hold a strict majority of the Appropriations committee on March 1, 2023?

will-senate-democrats-hold-a-strict

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-senate-democrats-hold-a-strict

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolution Resolves based on https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/about/members on March 1, 2023. Resolves YES if the committee majority contains more Democrat than Republican members and contains strictly more members than the committee minority. Resolves NO otherwise (including for example if the majority and minorities have equal size). Resolves N/A if it is substantially unclear. Background The 2021-2022 Senate is split 50/50 and operates under a power-sharing agreement where Democrats control the committee chairmanships but the committees are composed equally of Democrats and Republicans. After the Democrats won their 51st seat in the Georgia runoff, the 2023-2024 Senate was expected to give them a strict majority, giving them more power over Senate operational and organizational matters, including a strict majority in committees (see e.g. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/06/us/democrats-georgia-senate-majority.html). Senator Sinema's announcement that she is changing her party affiliation from Democrat to independent could affect the balance of power in the Senate. Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it. In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said. Provided that Sinema sticks to that vow, Democrats will still have a workable Senate majority in the next Congress, though it will not exactly be the neat and tidy 51 seats they assumed. They’re expected to also have the votes to control Senate committees. This question asks whether the Democrats will control a strict majority of committee seats. (I have chosen the Appropriations committee arbitrarily, I expect that this would likely be the same on all committees. The Senate session begins on Jan 3, I have chosen March 1 because last year it took until early Feb for the power-sharing agreement to be finalized.) Related [markets]

N/A

m6Wk2KCGGpcyeFuGmHqA

tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1

Arch1e

Archie

[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Verstappen, Leclerc, Norris, Hamilton and Alonso all score points at the Chinese GP?

2024-formula-1-season-will-verstapp-d9cb3854cc4e

https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2024-formula-1-season-will-verstapp-d9cb3854cc4e

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

All the drivers listed need to score points with a top-10 finish at the Chinese Grand Prix. If there is a replacement/reserve driver in place of one of the listed drivers, and they finish in the top-10, the market will still resolve YES. However, if a car has a DNS issue, like Sainz in 2023 at Qatar, and the car simply does not start the race with any driver, the market will resolve N/A. (This is for the main Sunday race, not the sprint)

N/A

tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1

qF6EPbjeIuGA6AbJJIyy

UlhMl6cfkhRXo06orCqZ57pKN7t1

miscatulated

miscatulated

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw6HBeQJ9K0qAilnKIGVZR-U45i_MpVbVTliOQf=s96-c

Will Justin Amash be chosen as Speaker of the House in 2023?

will-justin-amash-be-chosen-as-spea

https://manifold.markets/miscatulated/will-justin-amash-be-chosen-as-spea

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

[image]It is technically not required that Speaker of the House be a member of Congress.

N/A

xBrWGBunhSPnd12Gqk9T

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

[short-fuse] Will "Drive-Away Dolls" (directed by Ethan Coen) gross >$2.5 million during its opening weekend?

shortfuse-will-driveaway-dolls-dire

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/shortfuse-will-driveaway-dolls-dire

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market will resolve YES if "Drive-Away Dolls" (2024) grosses more than $2,500,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt19356262/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market. I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420. For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it. "Drive-Away Dolls" is the solo directorial debut of Ethan Coen (half of the Coen brothers), with the following premise: This comedy caper follows Jamie, an uninhibited free spirit bemoaning yet another breakup with a girlfriend, and her demure friend Marian who desperately needs to loosen up. In search of a fresh start, the two embark on an impromptu road trip to Tallahassee, but things quickly go awry when they cross paths with a group of inept criminals along the way.

N/A

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

TMR9MnPEPfPMygaFr8y9

7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2

KevinBurke

Kevin Burke

NBA (Nov 22, 2023): Will the Minnesota Timberwolves (home) beat the Philadelphia 76ers (away)?

nba-nov-22-2023-will-the-minnesota

https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-nov-22-2023-will-the-minnesota

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The game will take place at 5:00pm PST on November 22, 2023. The Minnesota Timberwolves are the home team. A game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game. One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly. Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like "the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3" will not be received well. This is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the market cost). If you like these markets, tip or tell your friends!

N/A

0aMWYe1zoeCiGFkDkYdq

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will NH flight 381 from Tokyo to Yonago on 2023-09-15 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-nh-flight-381-from-tokyo-to-yo

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-nh-flight-381-from-tokyo-to-yo

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4vzje5m8

N/A

7I4jPXDHZglvezdx1kUQ

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

Ernie

Ernie

Will the main LK99 market ever reach 12% before EOY 2023

will-the-main-lk99-market-ever-reac-3c2ad9a9af65

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-the-main-lk99-market-ever-reac-3c2ad9a9af65

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Midnight pst starting today where it's 9%, this resolves YES of the main market reaches >=12% The related market: @/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

N/A

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

rlRj3rcoYvZdlX2G04BQ

8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3

Sss19971997

Sss

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJYstjF0shAAXTwqQnhiZPJhmg3XSDaVGD2Kttp_TCF=s96-c

Will an LLM or some form of AI system be found out to perform arbitrage on Manifolds and be profitable before Q2 2024?

will-an-llm-or-some-form-of-ai-syst

https://manifold.markets/Sss19971997/will-an-llm-or-some-form-of-ai-syst

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Arbitrage, in the context of Manifold Markets, refers to the practice of exploiting the price differences between markets to secure a profit. For instance, if two markets A and B are predicting the same or similar outcomes, but have a different distribution of bets leading to different pricing, a participant could bet in a way to exploit these differences and secure a profit. In this question, we are pondering on the point in time when a Language Model (LLM) or another form of Artificial Intelligence (AI) system will be discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold markets and do so profitably. This speculative scenario considers the evolution and application of AI in analyzing, predicting, and responding to market dynamics in real-time, thus engaging in arbitrage. Resolution Criteria: - Yes: Proof is provided, through credible sources or announcements, that an LLM or another form of AI system has been discovered to perform arbitrage on Manifold Markets before April 1, 2024, and has done so profitably. The proof should show real transactions and profits made over a defined period. - No: No verifiable news by April 1 shows that any profitable attempt to perform arbitrage by AI has been done. - NA (Not Applicable): If the scenario doesn't fall into either of the above categories or if there is no available information regarding. For example, manifolds no longer exists.

N/A

8u5ZFBP4UjQ3JvD7B8z0gR9Um2F3

Zc3I5CuoJeG6dXxV7chq

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

DanielFilan

Daniel Filan

Will the downtown Berkeley Target be open on the first week of April 2024?

will-the-downtown-berkeley-target-b

https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-the-downtown-berkeley-target-b

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

There used to be a few convenience stores you could go to in Berkeley: a CVS, a Walgreens, and a Target. The CVS closed earlier this year, and the Walgreens closed this week. Will the Target survive? Resolves YES if there is any day during the first 7 days of April 2024 in which a member of the public can go to a Target located at 2187 Shattuck Ave and buy something.

N/A

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

gwpanS5EML7eKehDqHDQ

M1GUv0trZIM7iM0drRSGy5dBB5Z2

drewmummy

susfriend

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLyL_0Lwtu__-qnqvTR1VPZlCXNjsZ66KiHzBGdQc6dK1M=s96-c

Will Good Burger 2 have a fresh (60%+) Rotten Tomatoes rating by December 1st?

will-good-burger-2-have-a-fresh-60

https://manifold.markets/drewmummy/will-good-burger-2-have-a-fresh-60

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

N/A

GqkcfMIDjZ51ibVUjljf

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Northern Ireland local elections 2023 - will the DUP win 100 or more seats

northern-ireland-local-elections-20-fb1424a4df4e

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/northern-ireland-local-elections-20-fb1424a4df4e

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The Northern Ireland local elections took place on Thursday 19th May. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Northern_Ireland_local_elections Counting of votes started in the morning of Friday 20th May. Results are expected to start coming in on Friday afternoon and into Saturday. The parties are defending the following seat totals (based on the results of the 2019 elections): DUP - 122 seats Sinn Fein - 105 seats UUP - 75 seats SDLP - 59 seats Alliance - 53 seats Green Party - 8 seats Once the results are finalised, will the DUP 100 or more seats?

N/A

qr759sZOfNCBV9o0cIDg

2e6vTEJPk1dVs3xGvOBM2xkK2Q02

frostmourn

frostmourn

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffrostmourn%2FbpATR5uUGb.cloudfront?alt=media&token=ff031d9c-26e8-4b83-972f-ad1795633fac

Will Biden poop in his pants again by EOY 2022?

will-biden-poop-in-his-pants-again

https://manifold.markets/frostmourn/will-biden-poop-in-his-pants-again

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://www.opindia.com/2021/10/poopypantsbiden-trend-twitter-rumours-joe-biden-suffering-bathroom-accident-vatican/ [image]Market resolves to "yes" if Biden pooped in his pants again by the end of 2022 Market resolves to "no" if Biden has not pooped in his pants again by the end of 2022

N/A

QoEPB5mLhTOH0ZPxYcSF

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will the US fail to raise the debt ceiling before June 1 but not default?

will-the-us-fails-to-raise-the-debt

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-fails-to-raise-the-debt

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves NO if before June 1 (Eastern time), the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling. Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt in 2023. Resolves YES otherwise (if the US neither raises the debt before June ceiling nor defaults in 2023). This question is intended to help answer: "If the US fails to raise the debt ceiling before June 1, how likely is default?". See also https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b#NCK95nCmDyevr09h9JvA Definitions: Raising or suspending the debt ceiling is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised Default is defined the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-i [link preview]

N/A

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

Ect72XpRpJ0KSAi1W7b6

d0b6iOtH1VR8aL9WJ95T6Vn0QYB2

kalassak

kalassak

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgNUM940XEPWddv4CHQcGAHkd3YLtUbJKF0x24oAQ=s96-c

Will it snow on Thanksgiving (Nov 23, 2023) in Anchorage?

will-it-snow-on-thanksgiving-nov-23

https://manifold.markets/kalassak/will-it-snow-on-thanksgiving-nov-23

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Background: 19 of the last 69 years recorded measurable snow (at least one tenth of an inch) on November 23 at the Anchorage International Airport. This market resolves YES if the daily climate report for Nov 23 in Anchorage issued by the Anchorage National Weather Service office lists 0.1 inches or greater of snowfall. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.

N/A

wgvni8zhnVVzzfUnhY6Y

XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2

RJPerez

RJ Perez

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c

Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the Cincinnati Bengals in their Week 5 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?

will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-2cca581b6cd2

https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-2cca581b6cd2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Yes - Cardinals win No - Bengals win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled

N/A

n1W03JLi2ojSJEbEKuRr

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will New Mexico State beat Auburn?

-2023-ncaaf-will-new-mexico-state-b-a919294b3a2f

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-new-mexico-state-b-a919294b3a2f

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

2023-11-18 at 4 PM ET in Auburn, AL. Line: Auburn -22.5. Head-to-head: Overall: New Mexico State 0, Auburn 3, Tie 0

N/A

pT3NOla4orWl926Z47QD

IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3

kenmichaels

Ken Michaels

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmkalbert%2FsV_slNrI7H.MP?alt=media&token=cceb6bb1-21f3-4385-9a6c-c47195b85cb9

Will Massachusetts government announce specific sanctions by against the town of Milton after voter rejected new zoning?

will-massachusetts-government-annou

https://manifold.markets/kenmichaels/will-massachusetts-government-annou

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Massachusetts is requiring towns to adopt new zoning rules allowing additional multifamily housing. [image][image]This question is closing on April 1. Announcement of sanctions is required by then for this to resolve "yes". Resolved early as specific sanctions were announced today.

N/A

IQ9DwxT6rxaynVgkiDDfIv58LGE3

gxuXGSQ2Ck9aklgMVjVD

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Texas State beat Arkansas State?

-2023-ncaaf-will-texas-state-beat-a

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-texas-state-beat-a

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

2023-11-18 at 3 PM ET in Jonesboro, AR. Line: Arkansas State +3.5. Head-to-head: Overall: Texas State 4, Arkansas State 6, Tie 0 Last 5: Texas State 3, Arkansas State 2, Tie 0

N/A

QdXveMgkXPCa6cju0VxJ

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will AS flight 1132 from Seattle to San Francisco on 2023-08-13 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-as-flight-1132-from-seattle-to

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-as-flight-1132-from-seattle-to

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Copied from Wingman: https://app.wingman.wtf/hot-flights/market/0x224923a200a0f67b6e84f15ca7561da9c5b67882?utm_source=manifold

N/A

D2EDg2eb7aS4nwfQ9B3d

5U9bXdFwGxSmZxA8E9ty0YxK1jU2

yomun

yomun

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml5NruHxe8LooEB8o58IdxFc1yAoC-vCQyyq8PW=s96-c

Will the price of 1 Pallet of (96x 10kg bags ) of wood pellet, have reached at some point before february 1st 2023, a minimal price of £1000. Sold in UK by nuera.

will-the-price-of-1-pallet-of-96x-1

https://manifold.markets/yomun/will-the-price-of-1-pallet-of-96x-1

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This question resolves to yes if at some point before february 1st 2023, on this specific site, https://nuergy.co.uk/product-category/biomass-fuel/ , the price of 1 pallet reach £1000. The market is designed to capture the moment when the energy pain should be felt the most acute and how it would translate into demand for biomass energy. This market was inspired by a recent article on the bbc about cutting down primary forest to fuel a power station. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63089348 Close date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm

N/A

G9eiTUc6XL88sNIeoUKz

jFNnMwozuSMAIoPDAxXGxjNa1Aj1

Rendon

Rendon

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbn8Yk6ziQz6tYkpBBk4GfP-aN9T3gHZRtWalFz=s96-c

Will Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny break even?

will-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-106dbb0406b4

https://manifold.markets/Rendon/will-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-106dbb0406b4

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Breaking even here is defined as worldwide gross hitting a multiplier of 2.5 over the budget of $295mm as reported here: https://www.indiewire.com/features/interviews/james-mangold-interview-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-destiny-1234878614/ I.e. this will resolve yes if boxofficemojo lists worldwide cumulative gross of $737.5mm. Initial run only. If no major objections, will resolve negative early if opening weekend + second weekend drop + third weekend drop is sufficiently bad. [link preview]

N/A

Zd2GRhXByEvWdquKRS4A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will there be substantial evidence that Logan Paul committed fraud regarding Cryptozoo?

will-there-be-substantial-evidence

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-substantial-evidence

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=386p68_lDHA&t=1s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvzyDg40-yw Resolve to Yes if there is substantial evidence that Logan Paul committed fraud regarding Cryptozoo Resolve to No if no substantial evidence that Logan Paul committed fraud regarding Cryptozoo

N/A

2Z5ZAsowMVbfcZFXZFgJ

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

itsTomekK

Tomek ⚡ K

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

Economy 2023: No recession in 2023?

economy-2023-no-recession-in-2023

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/economy-2023-no-recession-in-2023

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all. Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring. Recently he made 10 predictions on economy events, published on https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023: [image]

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

aiLQoMPBsQmZlE0VA2Ea

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

mirrorbot

Mirror Bot

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

[Metaculus] Will 3+ months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before deployment? [Ṁ1000 subsidy]

metaculus-will-at-least-3-months-of

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-at-least-3-months-of

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. Resolution criteria This question will resolve positively Google DeepMind issues a statement on their blog, in an official paper, or in a media statement, on or before the release of their Gemini model, mentioning that they have given one or more third parties access to Gemini for the purpose of conducting safety evaluations and risk assessments for at least 3 months. The statement should specifically refer to evaluating Gemini's capabilities to ensure it cannot act in dangerous or destructive ways. A vague or passing mention of safety practices or ethics research in progress will not be sufficient. The 3rd party evaluation does not need to be published in order for this question to resolve Yes. If no such statement is made by Google or DeepMind within 30 days of Gemini’s release, this question resolves No. If Google DeepMind does not release a model called or previously referred to as “Gemini” before August 1, 2024, this question will resolve Ambiguous. This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

N/A

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

EFiUiQDhDQbqIFkxfLZT

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Destiny's clip "This is How Democracy Ends" reach 30k views by 4/02 9 A.M. PST?

will-destinys-clip-this-is-how-demo

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-clip-this-is-how-demo

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtube.com/shorts/USQxm_hZsW0?feature=share If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders.

N/A

tGrWGEvBVZX4oryVPqQY

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 8 than it closed on December 7?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-8

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-8

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $6.24 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

YW3ic824djjm2jWj6wz0

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

mirrorbot

Mirror Bot

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0

[Kalshi] Ariana Grande’s album hits #1 this year?

kalshi-ariana-grandes-album-hits-1

https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/kalshi-ariana-grandes-album-hits-1

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Ariana Grande’s album hits #1 this year? Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi. Resolution criteria If Ariana Grande has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution sources https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

N/A

PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2

B2cb5lsZLAiaHWxgGWTm

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #21 Tulane beat East Carolina?

-2023-ncaaf-will-21-tulane-beat-eas

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-21-tulane-beat-eas

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

2023-11-04 at 3:30 PM ET in Greenville, NC

N/A

Sn8C8BWjVUzxvYzgMvZB

UdZMj7mgZKSBXJ9e4Fwqddnuchw2

zzlk

ayylmao

Will the US Invade Iraq in 2023?

will-the-us-invade-iraq-in-2023

https://manifold.markets/zzlk/will-the-us-invade-iraq-in-2023

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to my subjective judgement that an invasion has taken place by US forces before the end of 2023. The context that I'm creating this market in is that there are currently news headlines that US millitary bases in Iraq were attacked by Iran-backed millitias. So, the natural question to ask would be "What will the US do in retalliation?" As it is subjective what constitutes an invasion, I won't trade in this market.

N/A

UdZMj7mgZKSBXJ9e4Fwqddnuchw2

feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX

OKEJTkGTMsRxFEpOTMvdHJohK2z2

Seeker

Seeker

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocI0DwAvUYcxn50R1qr1Z_ptNG32q43DDoJgJsOmT-9g=s96-c

Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?

will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or-94b6eb88ffb0

https://manifold.markets/Seeker/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-or-94b6eb88ffb0

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate before 2025 that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes". (Note: Resolves to the YES option if a law or bill is passed even if the said bill has not been enacted to executioned yet)

N/A

XeQf3ygmrGM1MxdsE3JSlmq8vL42

yv926A4IiczjSkAqZVIX

SydAvWmuhpbPfyRy0fVuHg8Z9Fq1

sorren

sorren

Will Qinwen Zheng make the semifinals of Aus Open 2024

will-qinwen-zheng-make-the-semifina

https://manifold.markets/sorren/will-qinwen-zheng-make-the-semifina

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

I will not be betting in this market. Resolve YES if she makes the semis Resolve NO if she does not

N/A

SydAvWmuhpbPfyRy0fVuHg8Z9Fq1

Yo6Ls7cmdAkgrKDyj9ji

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Crude Oil Jan 24 close higher on Dec 11 than Dec 4? (CL=F Weekly)

will-crude-oil-jan-24-close-higher-dc66f44af885

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-crude-oil-jan-24-close-higher-dc66f44af885

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Crude Oil closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier. Previous Close Price: 73.04 This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price. Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

r8ov8qpSw4lrFX5G1Xlj

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

mattyb

Matty B

Will Marvel’s Echo be good? 🧏🤜🦸‍♀️

will-marvels-echo-be-good

https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-marvels-echo-be-good

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Echo, played by Alaqua Cox, was first introduced in Hawkeye (2021), and will finally be getting her own show on January 9th, 2024. Disney has also revealed that all six episodes will hit both Disney+ and Hulu simultaneously. Echo will not only be the first Disney+ series to embrace the binge model pioneered by Netflix but also their first series with a TV-MA rating. It's also been announced that Echo will be the first project released under the Marvel Spotlight banner, which has been created for shows that exist within the MCU continuity but focus more on gritty, realistic and character-driven stories, as opposed to the cosmic and fantastical side explored in the rest of the shared universe. ‘Echo’: Trailer, Cast, Release Date, and Everything We Know So Far About the Marvel Series One week after Echo (2024) is released, will it be rated a 6.5 or higher on IMDb? Past Marvel TV IMDb ratings: What If…? - 7.4 Loki - 8.2 I Am Groot (shorts) - 6.7 Secret Invasion - 5.9 She-Hulk - 5.3 Ms. Marvel - 6.3 Moon Knight - 7.3 Hawkeye - 7.5 The Falcon and the Winter Soldier - 7.1 WandaVision - 7.9

N/A

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

UVBZfR2g84P8kDLf7Nup

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 surpass 1M views?

will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-228ac336e6fa

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-228ac336e6fa

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolution base on the video view counts on Lex Fridman's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman/videos Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 received over 1M views at the end of the month (Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) *Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

g91hMXUdXXpnmbWmvalF

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

Will "Abigail" (2024) have a Metacritic score >57, two weeks after release?

will-abigail-2024-have-a-metacritic

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-abigail-2024-have-a-metacritic

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

"Abigail" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/abigail/ I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 3rd (two weeks after release). Details I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). Example: the Metascore for "Scream" (2022), by the same directors, is currently 61. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/3PsP8MFH8p0)

N/A

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

bIOy34wjmqUbB8f9KTbm

TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2

itsTomekK

Tomek ⚡ K

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c

Will Baltic Pipe be operational on November 1?

will-baltic-pipe-be-operational-on

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-baltic-pipe-be-operational-on

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The Baltic Pipe is a natural gas pipeline between the Norwegian sector of the North Sea and Poland. It is a strategic infrastructure project with the goal of creating a new gas supply corridor in the European market. The Baltic Pipe was officially opened on September 27, 2022, and will be operational with partial capacity from October 1. The pipeline is expected to be fully operational on November/December 2022. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to official sources and consensus of credible media reporting, the Baltic Pipe is transporting gas with non-zero capacity on any hour of November 1, 2022. Otherwise - if for any reason the pipeline does not transmit gas on this day - this market will resolve to "No". https://www.baltic-pipe.eu/

N/A

xworWEXZhhHv4LsGVvew

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 9 than it closed on October 8?

will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-592fc99e4eeb

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-592fc99e4eeb

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT). Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD Previous Close: $27,933.50 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [link preview]

N/A

ykS2Ggmy2C0giDgeXcmy

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will CAC 40 close higher november 15th than the close of november 14th? (Daily Market)

will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-e9934a830c89

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-e9934a830c89

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. Predictions ends 1 hour earlier. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

WgiJdflKw8YGg5dm6waN

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will SOL close higher on December 2 than it closed on December 1?

will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST). Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial): https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel Previous Close: $59.82 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

f3PdKeTTXIx4TAS07zOL

5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2

jks

JKS

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Washington defeat Oregon State?

-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-defeat-1f9497fd575f

https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-defeat-1f9497fd575f

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Kickoff: Saturday, November 18, 2023 - 4:30 PM PST Reser Stadium - Corvallis, Oregon

N/A

3SkS2ZvQjVysRz6CkP5w

hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2

Stralor

Pat Scott🩴

Will the winning hand in Hand 5 of Manifold Plays Poker be better than two pairs?

will-the-winning-hand-in-hand-5-of

https://manifold.markets/Stralor/will-the-winning-hand-in-hand-5-of

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves according to results, unless we don't see the hands because no showdown occurs even if the winner chooses to reveal (then N/A) Info about the game: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Stralor/manifold-plays-poker-who-will-win-h-2b4bdf141281)

N/A

f1HI4qsOvlkHvpzKY9X9

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Pfizer OPEN higher than 27.56 on February 12?

will-pfizer-close-higher-than-2756-2f28a70744e1

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-pfizer-close-higher-than-2756-2f28a70744e1

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Pfizer Inc Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data PFE closes at 4pm EST This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 12 Resolves YES if stock opens higher than stated price. Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

QSVByGmUzjAuQkdNrgkQ

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April?

seeing-as-trump-will-be-arrested-so

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/seeing-as-trump-will-be-arrested-so

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

House arrest does NOT count. He has to physically be in a jail/prison. Apr 4, 12:30pm: Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison by April? → Seeing as Trump will be arrested soon, will he spend any time in jail/prison in April?

N/A

ODXMK0w8qXHayDIXEEjl

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 18 than it closed on December 17?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-648c4636560e

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-648c4636560e

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $6.79 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

MDWTD1fYfwxpILGVTOCT

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-21 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-eb06f363dfab

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-eb06f363dfab

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-02-21 07:30 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 09:30 (UTC)       01:30 (Los Angeles)       04:30 (New York)       10:30 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 08:20        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

KYRBytt48YUnBRJIBwBY

zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1

_deleted_

~deleted~

Did OpenAI get 98% on RAG?

did-openai-get-98-on-rag

https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/did-openai-get-98-on-rag

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[tweet]This market asks the question of whether OpenAI's results for RAG did indeed reach 98% accuracy as is claimed in the tweet or not. I currently do not have more information about this, but apparently this is from a talk.

N/A

VF8vIVRN97YwMxjrF8pn

yUAxZUtudJgLleSFITRGYGcYM4f2

Loppukilpailija

Loppukilpailija

What will be the result of the current Lichess Blitz TV chess game?

what-will-be-the-result-of-the-curr

https://manifold.markets/Loppukilpailija/what-will-be-the-result-of-the-curr

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Who will win the chess game played at the following URL? https://lichess.org/6VhLuMnM/black Resolves YES if white wins, NO if black wins and 50% if it's a draw. (This is part of a series of markets on chess games played at https://lichess.org/tv/blitz. A market is created as new games start. Note that the displayed game at the TV-url may change - hence always use the stable URL to the specific game.) [link preview]

N/A

pQhaz6qLfQ4c1SXXmlc2

HiuybALrLla5iJCcNt9Iwme7btt2

Nico

Nico

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWHVZIBXBUWUPADNCveJtz7QAw7r6Bf2zS_4gf=s96-c

Will Boris Johnson lose his parliamentary seat before the end of 2023?

will-boris-johnson-lose-his-parliam

https://manifold.markets/Nico/will-boris-johnson-lose-his-parliam

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Boris Johnson is in the running for Conservative leader again. But there is an ongoing Privileges Committee investigation into claims he misled parliament over lockdown parties in Downing Street. Should they find against him, possible sanctions include suspension from parliament, and even expulsion, triggering a by-election. This markets resolves YES, if Boris Johnson LOSES such a by-election, or otherewise permanently resigns his seat in the House of Commons. If he is expelled from parliament, but wins the subsequent by-election, it resolves NO.

N/A

naON3T8WeAZ2YVfcKvxp

ADQS38rFiKRKzSQz1YV32VCtbsg1

Weepinbell

Weepinbell

Will John Green's campaign for J&J to stop enforcing secondary patents on bedaquiline succeed by the end of the year?

will-johnson-and-johnson-drop-their

https://manifold.markets/Weepinbell/will-johnson-and-johnson-drop-their

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES