Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

HzGhzvqWLdtJ4cRyfWNc

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Kennesaw State beat Sam Houston State?

-2023-ncaaf-will-kennesaw-state-bea

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-kennesaw-state-bea

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

2023-11-04 at 1 PM ET in Huntsville, TX

N/A

ts1pMpPhMhCBx2Sw6Unu

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will OO flight 3458 from Seattle to Fresno on 2023-09-29 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-oo-flight-3458-from-seattle-to-0722f2eb9a3f

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-oo-flight-3458-from-seattle-to-0722f2eb9a3f

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/mrnx9fmd

N/A

4YH0fcpZh6ioHswEfL2u

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will the TSX close higher on November 17 than it did on November 16?

will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-8440491d1e1a

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-8440491d1e1a

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [link preview]

N/A

NU4PK1BAUMf6d4usWtcT

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher than $172.28 on March 28?

will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-0842fa030777

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-0842fa030777

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price AAPL closes at 4pm ET This market closes at 5pm ET Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled. Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $172.28 Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

qKH3zzO6yn8qlz6Pv4YP

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will numeric markets return by July 8?

will-numeric-markets-return-by-july

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-numeric-markets-return-by-july

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

See https://manifold.markets/Austin/which-projects-will-win-the-mexifol Note that they don't have to be the same as the previous implementation of numeric markets. Anything that essentially lets you bet on a numeric outcome counts.

N/A

RhOvdWg3Lbag6ypdjZ3U

GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72

Ansel

Ansel

Will the UAP amendment be included in the final version of the 2023 NDAA?

will-the-uap-amendment-be-included

https://manifold.markets/Ansel/will-the-uap-amendment-be-included

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This question refers to the the UAP amendment in the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which was passed by the House in July. Resolves to YES if the UAP amendment in the final bill, passed by both houses of congress and signed by the president, remains substantially intact as passed by the house. If it has been defanged (for example, no longer allows imminent domain to be declared) then this resolves to NO.

N/A

GxByO08XQHdK19Od5auuvu3K1g72

lw5wMMTZLxELMP9Zi44J

K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2

EliGaultney

Eli Gaultney

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c

Will "The Video Archives Podcast with Quentin Tarantino and Roger Avary" have at least 20 episodes by the end of 2022?

will-the-video-archives-podcast-wit

https://manifold.markets/EliGaultney/will-the-video-archives-podcast-wit

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Starting in July 2022, they've kept to about one episode per week. Will we get at least 20 episodes by the end of the year? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-video-archives-podcast-with-quentin-tarantino/id1627069896 (I'm not counting the "Coming Soon" episode on Apple Podcasts!)

N/A

4vxelGioWyP8OP9GF4CV

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

MetaculusBot

Metaculus Bot

Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Los Angeles Clippers)

which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-21f11ce3e53d

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-21f11ce3e53d

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15725/los-angeles-clippers/

N/A

qcVibVhp3lN7fFjCUPnO

mdlhRvhss6dlc4KwOw34FNx3CS63

harding

David Harding

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKssnVzgVM4Nc-lKegIICp_e8cXN9ree58qVsap8J0rOA=s96-c

Will Kilauea erupt in January 2024?

will-kilauea-erupt-in-january-2024

https://manifold.markets/harding/will-kilauea-erupt-in-january-2024

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Terms "Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count. "In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone). Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred. "Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page. Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer. Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes". Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption. Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No". Disclosure: I will bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.

N/A

mdlhRvhss6dlc4KwOw34FNx3CS63

35UMvP806SD0I8H88fbm

ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1

diadematus

Captain Jack Sparrow

Will Manchester City win out their remaining Premier League games?

will-manchester-city-win-out-their

https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-manchester-city-win-out-their

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market seeks to predict whether Manchester City will have a perfect finish to their 2023-2024 Premier League campaign by winning all of their remaining league matches starting from game week 32. This market will resolve as "Yes" if Manchester City wins each Premier League match they play from April 11, 2024, until the end of the season. The market will resolve as "No" if they draw or lose any of these matches. The market will be resolved based on the official results reported by the Premier League after the season concludes or as soon as they lose or draw a match. Remaining games 32 - City (H) vs. Luton - W 33 - Brighton (H) vs. City - W 34 - Nottingham Forest (H) vs. City - W 35 - Blank 36 - City (H) vs. Wolves - W 37 - Fulham (H) vs. City - W 37 - Tottenham (H) vs. City - W 38 - City (H) vs. West Ham - W

N/A

ed0TYP2NEbWZ3K9oeW2DarokXOy1

kFbnuERhRdSBnhjCPweN

bhcruiD8kHfiYhieLPwhB5NceBH3

PatrickDelaney

Patrick Delaney

Will ChatGPT Utilizing the GPT-4 Model Be Able To Properly Accomplish FizzBuzz in LOLCODE by End of 2023?

will-chatgpt-utilizing-the-gpt4-mod-e7613a5984d8

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-chatgpt-utilizing-the-gpt4-mod-e7613a5984d8

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Prompt with current result below: Can you implement fizzbuzz in LOLCODE ? Result: HAI 1.2 CAN HAS STDIO? IM IN YR loop UPPIN YR var TIL BOTH SAEM var AN 101 IZ var % 3 YARLY IZ var % 5 YARLY VISIBLE "FIZZBUZZ" NOWAI VISIBLE "FIZZ" KTHX NOWAI IZ var % 5 YARLY VISIBLE "BUZZ" NOWAI VISIBLE var KTHX KTHX KTHX KTHXBYE The above answer fails with an error: main.lo:5: unknown token at: % If ChatGPT / GPT-4 can successfully accomplish the above in a zero-shot prompting answer by the end of 2023, this resolves as YES. Definition of zero-shot prompting answer, from comments: Zero-shot prompting is where ChatGPT makes predictions without any additional training, while one-shot prompting involves a single example or template. So what I should have written above is zero-shot prompting. I will update the description appropriately. Updated 20230515 Other, "Breaking LLM's Markets" [markets]

N/A

eSOhWbeyQsqU7VMlfQqN

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will Ron DeSantis suspend his presidential campaign before 'Super Tuesday' in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries?

will-ron-desantis-suspend-his-presi

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ron-desantis-suspend-his-presi

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

In the 2016 presidential race, many Republicans vying for the party's nomination suspended their campaigns before Super Tuesday could happen, including Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee. In 2024, Super Tuesday is currently likely to be held on the 5th of March, 2024. If Ron DeSantis suspends his presidential campaign or he never announces one before the day of Super Tuesday, this market will resolve to YES. If he has not suspended his campaign and it is ongoing at any point on the day of Super Tuesday, this market will resolve to NO.

N/A

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

22N86oyxNLJKHjNn5DOQ

SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93

Sailfish

Sailfish

Will NASA's Psyche mission launch before 2024?

will-nasas-psyche-mission-launch-be

https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-nasas-psyche-mission-launch-be

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. The next launch attempt is on 10 October 2023.

N/A

z44lQx03JULwTlZyH3Va

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

strutheo

chris (strutheo)

Will at least 60 new beetle species be described / discovered in the year 2023?

will-at-least-60-new-beetle-species

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-at-least-60-new-beetle-species

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Just one organization (The Natural History Museum in the UK) described: 170 new beetle species in 2020 91 new beetle species in 2021 84 new beetle species in 2022

N/A

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

wFU4KlNel1omDrGRVBMI

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on November 21st than on November 20th? {DAILY}

will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-e08f018628bf

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-e08f018628bf

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

DJI closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC) Previous Close : [image] Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day. Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE WEEKLY MARKET (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-fe523bfa2632)

N/A

DlE9skRiPm6nznfEdkhh

lwTcyrPbNSZkjgs18AUM57YvVr42

DaltonImhoffBrey

Dalton Imhoff-Brey

Will Angel of Empire win the 2023 Kentucky Derby?

will-angel-of-empire-win-the-2023-k

https://manifold.markets/DaltonImhoffBrey/will-angel-of-empire-win-the-2023-k

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will Angel of Empire, the current #3 Leaderboard ranked racehorse win the 2023 Kentucky Derby?

N/A

mJnTiYlibdaenvy7a98U

L6t8wng9D1gTMz6jPrIP8069m7F3

EricFode

Eric Fode

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcuQVSMYjTR7zJN3pzxdhAMYwMluYKWTseRPh9wKYFXQtuY=s96-c

Is there a correlation between people’s bias toward hearing melody or lyrics in music and their ability to sleep?

is-there-a-correlation-between-peop

https://manifold.markets/EricFode/is-there-a-correlation-between-peop

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves Baised on the results of this poll https://manifold.markets/embed/EricFode/do-you-fall-asleep-easily-and-do-yo?qr In this poll [link preview]

N/A

L6t8wng9D1gTMz6jPrIP8069m7F3

NS3ZVEdcSqwyTKI0sqax

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

MarcusAbramovitch

Marcus Abramovitch

Will the average US price of regular gas exceed $5/gallon by June 1st 2023?

will-the-average-us-price-of-regula-95c19b1ad3a3

https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-average-us-price-of-regula-95c19b1ad3a3

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

As measured by: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price I'm making several of these types of markets. While I expect to unfortunately create a bunch of arbitrage opportunity, I think they are somewhat useful (the first thing I came up with) as a proxy for the economic impacts of a possible Spring/Summer escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, at least impacts to the US/rest of the world.

N/A

KiaguC6AXkPHva2DVCD6

0IeFdLjgBobB8wBY9RP1siUYBco1

YabesButarbutar

Yabes Butarbutar

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJR9NsQPNnSnLOay1X_4HfUrE08jXQiwZyjuolXMqm98Q=s96-c

Does the Open AI Board will resign?

does-the-open-ai-board-will-resign

https://manifold.markets/YabesButarbutar/does-the-open-ai-board-will-resign

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[image]Per 20 November 2023, internal conflict in Open AI has been tense and escalated. Mira Murati, with another 700 employees signed a petition, declaring that all of them would resign and join Sam Altman in Microsoft, if the whole board that participate the firing incident, isn't resigning themself. Situation would get more tense day by day, as the decision of board remains unclear IF VOTE YES: The whole board would resign, restructirization happen IF VOTE NO: The whole board would not resign, or the whole employees resign and join MSFT

N/A

fgfvV6XppTehO83oYIzu

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Vaush's video "Michael Knowles LOSES IT Over Woke Tiktoks" reach 150k views by 3/21 9 A.M. PST?

will-vaushs-video-michael-knowles-l

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-michael-knowles-l

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://youtu.be/oezVGuFycN0 If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

7AJu8sIZ42tovDybAM8p

96zQv7LyMdSvrCDJRNMSAcV7JLy1

lasoteaco

laso teaco

Will Grayscale win their appeal against the SEC over GBTC by the end of 2023?

will-grayscale-win-their-appeal-aga

https://manifold.markets/lasoteaco/will-grayscale-win-their-appeal-aga

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This resolves as "Yes" if the court rules in favor of Grayscale in their appeal over the SEC rejecting Grayscale's proposal to turn their Bitcoin trust (GBTC) into an exchange traded fund. If a ruling hasn't been issued by the end of 2023, it resolves to "No".

N/A

Lg27FqjEQcXjXQ1uSxsk

zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03

CquilPromp

Cquil Promp

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c

Will the temperature in Central Park August 22nd at 3:51pm be in the 79-81° range?

will-the-temperature-in-central-par-675c9a029213

https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-675c9a029213

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 79-81° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Aug 22, 2023 ? Question closes 3:00pm ET Resolves according to: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

N/A

QpID6NCZy9vFcJxI0WmW

k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2

LivInTheLookingGlass

Olivia🏳️‍⚧️

Will at least four Congressional candidates contest election results in 2022?

will-at-least-four-congressional-ca

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-at-least-four-congressional-ca

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Note: this is a duplicate of @ScottAlexander's aiming to find the expected value. It will resolve identically, except with the number matching the title. Original: This market resolves positive if a major-party candidate for US Congress in the 2022 midterm elections contests the results of the election they were in, including: Calling for, sponsoring, or promoting (eg tweeting positively about) a protest against the election result. Refusing to formally concede for more than three days after a major paper has called the election for their opponent (and without any other major paper agreeing that the race is too close to call), on the grounds that they believe they won. Launching unusual legal or political action (eg a lawsuit) to overturn the results of the election that they were in. A normal recount in a close race isn't "unusual"; I will use my judgment (and past history) to decide what qualifies. Anything else that common-sensically fits a definition of contesting an election result. If a candidate says they believe the election was fraudulent, but concedes on time and doesn't make any attempt to fight it, that will not count as contesting the election results for purpose of this market. If a candidate's supporters take some action, but the candidate doesn't positively endorse it, that won't count as a positive resolution. This market resolves negative if nobody has met any of these criteria by December 1 or three days after the mainstream media calls the results of the last race, whichever happens later. Close date updated to 2022-11-09 3:59 pm UPDATE: Added the words "major-party". If you feel like this unfairly affected your investment, please contact me and I will try to reimburse you. Sorry!

N/A

IlR8Yi9zZbJwRbWKrHN7

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-fd4d6a414629

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-fd4d6a414629

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-09 06:45 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-09 - 08:45 (UTC)       00:45 (Los Angeles)       03:45 (New York)       09:45 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 02:20        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

EwfU7fGzmMlApwbiH882

XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2

RJPerez

RJ Perez

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c

Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 4 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?

will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c8568c036e9a

https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c8568c036e9a

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Yes - Eagles win No - Commanders win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled

N/A

1PbJllyP09ePmxX8U89a

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-1f504c745aea

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-1f504c745aea

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-02-15 10:20 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 12:20 (UTC)       04:20 (Los Angeles)       07:20 (New York)       13:20 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 08:00        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

Qxz1YCs84WHPwvPwzVMs

Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33

tpking

TP King

Will Nikkei 225 hit its all-time high in 2024

will-nikkei-225-hit-its-alltime-hig-5af2fe111435

https://manifold.markets/tpking/will-nikkei-225-hit-its-alltime-hig-5af2fe111435

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolve yes if the Nikkei 225 index goes above its all time high 38,915.87 at any time on or before 31/12/2024 (does not need to close above that level) Background: Nikkei’s all time high 38,915.87 was hit on 29/12/1989 Will use the official source to decide if the level is hit: https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en/nkave/archives/summary Nikkei is trading at 36,160.66 right now Related question: Will Nikkei 225 hit its all-time high by March 2024 https://manifold.markets/tpking/will-nikkei-225-hit-its-alltime-hig?r=dHBraW5n

N/A

Jxzs6NHitohaNLJ1AJkmt06uRw33

ms8DNh2OlTCCIGJmnzqb

XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2

RJPerez

RJ Perez

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?

will-the-pittsburgh-steelers-beat-t-5577937f341f

https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-pittsburgh-steelers-beat-t-5577937f341f

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Yes - Steelers win No - Jaguars win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled

N/A

p24yl4rC1egWlJgAdHml

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

Krypton

Krypton

Will Ko wen-je virtually drop out the Taiwan 2024 presidential race?

will-ko-wenje-virtually-drop-out-th

https://manifold.markets/Krypton/will-ko-wenje-virtually-drop-out-th

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Since law doesn't allow president nominee withdraw their application. The standards of virtually is judged by: Ko wen-je minimize the political campaign Ko wen-je tend to advocate “ruling party alternation” rather than "only vote Ko" KMT release the restriction of inviting Ko to KMT's legislative nominee campaign KMT announce sectary nominee who is close to Ko wen-je or party member of TPP Hou You-yi should lead in the polls. Even it might be hard to quantify, it should be easy to identify a "virtually drop out" by yes/no. I will not participate this market.

N/A

YaQuXDOPQ1Uvsfme2Up1K9pI7FG3

q868SRgsRiHmDdhDpbkh

4JCvwecWgqOc1bNPyZhnQ085BEw2

humblestumble

humblestumble

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhumblestumble%2Fbkinag6pWF.14?alt=media&token=302ce71c-98fc-4c47-a784-79fac2888a82

Will there be a 21st member state of the eurozone by the 1st of february 2024?

will-there-be-a-21st-member-state-o

https://manifold.markets/humblestumble/will-there-be-a-21st-member-state-o

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Croatia is projected to join the eurozone during 2023 and Bulgaria the 1st of january 2024. Will the predicted dates hold up or will there be significant delays? Resolves YES if there are 21 member states of the eurozone by the end of the 1st of february 2024. NO if there are less than 21 member states by the end of the 1st of february 2024. [image]

N/A

4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2

RRmJn2XPamAD3ANqtjRf

gKC4MaMryuNm6wJuVP3BlfSGH9u2

Vortex

Vortex

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6RRFtOCYYC4G52ui0ZxECVkzYuoR73wi1IKxLm=s96-c

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will there be a Primary debate for President by September?

will-there-be-a-primary-debate-for

https://manifold.markets/Vortex/will-there-be-a-primary-debate-for

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Note (7/3/2023): Many reports are saying Donald Trump plans to skip the first Republican presidential debate, if this happens the August debate does not count for this market as long as he remains top 2 in polling. Original Market Rules / Description--- Some context: For the 2016 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Republicans on August 6, 2015. For the 2020 cycle, the first primary debate was held by the Democrats on June 26, 2019. Will ANY party have a Presidential debate for the 2024 cycle before September 1 2023? IMPORTANT: To be considered a debate for the purposes of this market, the debate MUST include the top two candidates by polling who have actually declared. -- As of 7/3/2023, this would require either Trump and DeSantis to attend the same debate or RFK JR and Biden to attend the same debate. -- I will take the most recent poll from 538 sorting for C+ or higher at some point on the day of the debate. Polls with major candidates purposefully excluded will be avoided. The debate doesn't have to be approved by the parties themselves but it does have to be available live through one of the following: ABC, FOX, NBC (locals, but available nationwide) or CNN, FOX NEWS, MSNBC (national). YouTuber held debates, should that be a thing (or some other platform), don't count unless they have the official endorsement of the party. In-person forums without live coverage don't count.

N/A

9EqWy4Wx1ytJsAHxB444

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will Chatgpt experience outage on 4 or more days in April 2024?

will-chatgpt-experience-outage-on-4-82818533d46

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-chatgpt-experience-outage-on-4-82818533d46

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69 Includes Partial outage and Major outage e.g. there are 4 outage days in Jan 2024

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

Tpl3nrh7Ufk6thXQo4LT

nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972

SEE

SEE

Will Joe Biden still be alive on February 1st, 2024?

will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-fe

https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-fe

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival. As usual, I will not bet on my own market.

N/A

nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972

8YReSV2wd5KYSMpZsgED

6U5tExyIkRa3WwAhoj7ZYcCro7S2

Gyfer

Jifekh

Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 100BP

will-the-5y-deutsche-bank-cds-worth

https://manifold.markets/Gyfer/will-the-5y-deutsche-bank-cds-worth

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Recently, it appears that a single buying move has drastically multiply the price of the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS by ~3. This market aims to offer the opportunity to bet if it was a ponctual event or if one has serious reasons to think that DB credit default really is higher than previously this year. The Boursorama bank site will be used to resolve this market: https://www.boursorama.com/cours/cds/3xDB/ Apr 8, 7:19pm: Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 50$ → Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 80€ Apr 8, 7:19pm: Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 80€ → Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 85€ Apr 8, 7:20pm: Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 85€ → Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 100€ Apr 8, 11:16pm: Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 100€ → Will the 5y Deutsche Bank CDS worth more than 100BP

N/A

IkEkvRFosVk2C4Jap5Q8

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Destiny's video "Tucker Carlson vs Shapiro And The Vacuum Left By God" reach 150k views by 3/28 9 A.M. PST?

will-destinys-video-tucker-carlson

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-tucker-carlson

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtu.be/o1XJT0Md_Xw If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

cF46jTET7qapkzWMiX3j

tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2

NoyaV

Noya

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxYZ0_H2vY9Mr8HoT1lAqx7RKtsu8hU7Lk1lx7Gr=s96-c

Will it be a White Christmas in the UK?

will-it-be-a-white-christmas-in-the-3dbc159fa403

https://manifold.markets/NoyaV/will-it-be-a-white-christmas-in-the-3dbc159fa403

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

"The definition that the Met Office uses to define a white Christmas is for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK. Traditionally we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on where will see a white Christmas, the number of locations have increased and can now include sites such as Buckingham Palace, Belfast (Aldergrove Airport), Aberdeen (Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen FC), Edinburgh (Castle), Coronation Street in Manchester and the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. We also analyse the data from our observing stations around the UK to provide a complete picture of where snow has fallen or was lying on Christmas Day." https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/snow/white-christmas [link preview]Market insipired by this one. I'm not a UK resident, so I may need some help when deciding how to resolve 😂 I'll keep an eye out on @metoffice twitter when the time comes. Resolves YES (metoffice twittter post) [tweet]

N/A

tsLGbpzbvEZt0Y4tafpjAqCMQeF2

RVgLijjDWkQkUuahBBsG

jEn0PyFDKFMqJvnrxSeKgS85jev2

JGoldberg

Sauce

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKeoklcVNmLIln7hjU6qSJhbJOGfc65jh0pTydB1mIy=s96-c

Will Tyreek Hill surpass 2000 receiving yards for the 2023 regular season?

will-tyreek-hill-surpass-2000-recei

https://manifold.markets/JGoldberg/will-tyreek-hill-surpass-2000-recei

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Tyreek Hill is a reciever for the Miami Dolphins. Through 11 games played, he's recorded 1324 yards. There are 6 games remaining in the season. The NFL single-season record is 1964 yards.

N/A

jEn0PyFDKFMqJvnrxSeKgS85jev2

eta400ccd58Eftxy558U

u1SSvOk19xPlLeFF5gTZoO18iOp2

MichVer

MichVer

Will the birth rate of South Korea further drop in 2024?

during-2024-the-birth-rate-of-south

https://manifold.markets/MichVer/during-2024-the-birth-rate-of-south

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

If we see a further drop in birth rates in South Korea during any point in 2024, the market closes with YES.

N/A

u1SSvOk19xPlLeFF5gTZoO18iOp2

jVRBb5GZNlGuNbh9xMPH

Yjw07TwfDrfGxHHvRyuVUN70Prg2

DennisBruikman

Dennis Bruikman

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbmv4mYN5dHUzokqE6zq2J3nM0O2siWHcaeW7_RpLk=s96-c

Will Aston Martin F1 team score more points than Mercedes in the Azerbaijan GP 2023?

will-aston-martin-f1-team-score-mor

https://manifold.markets/DennisBruikman/will-aston-martin-f1-team-score-mor

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Will Aston Martin f1 team score more points than Mercedes f1 team during the Azerbaijan GP 2023? I will compare the total number of points scored by Stroll and Alonso for Aston and by Russell and Hamilton for Mercedes, including the fastest lap point, but not including the sprint race. Only points for the actual Grand Prix on Sunday will be counted.

N/A

EP9bOV91yIYenskcZfMf

S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2

jonjordanc3f0

jon jordan

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c

Will Xi Jinping still be president of China and Vladimir Putin president of Russia on 1 January 2023

will-xi-jinping-still-be-president

https://manifold.markets/jonjordanc3f0/will-xi-jinping-still-be-president

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

N/A

hzgU5zd6gM8pKcheM2iv

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will Instacart IPO in 2022?

will-instacart-ipo-in-2022

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-instacart-ipo-in-2022

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves YES if in 2022 Instacart goes public. Going public may include IPO, direct listing, SPAC, etc. Followup to https://manifold.markets/jack/will-instacart-file-to-ipo-in-2022 Instacart just filed confidentially for IPO. Confidential filing means they don't need to file a public S-1 until just 3 weeks before IPO, and they have flexibility on whether and when to IPO. Background on a confidential filing for IPO: https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/08/25/heres-why-more-companies-are-filing-confidential-ipo-paperwork/?sh=6bbddee56e68 for News on Instacart's confidential filing for IPO: - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/instacart-is-said-to-file-confidentially-for-an-ipo-in-us - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/11/business/instacart-takes-a-big-step-toward-a-public-offering.html Context: Instacart is one of the 10 most valuable startups according to https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies, but cut its valuation 40% from $39B to $24B amidst the recent tech selloff, which has seen an especially heavy decline in companies like Instacart which were lifted by pandemic-fueled growth that is now slowing.

N/A

2BIwHbJX56fbqxI7dUW7

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

eppsilon

eppsilon

🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Memphis beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl?

-2023-ncaaf-will-memphis-beat-iowa

https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-memphis-beat-iowa

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

2023-12-29 at 3:30 PM ET in Memphis, TN. Line: Iowa State -10.5.

N/A

GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2

cNEOI1NkkFCTsaP6vrOZ

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-67f8338ffa90

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-67f8338ffa90

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-15 06:45 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-15 - 08:45 (UTC)       00:45 (Los Angeles)       03:45 (New York)       09:45 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 02:20        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

57EbjHCdJacqM3KXT7yA

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on Fri. December 22nd than it closed on Fri. December 15th? {WEEKLY}

will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-cc04b1272dc7

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-cc04b1272dc7

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Russell 2000 (RUT) RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay). Predictions close at 215pm ET (615pm UTC) Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day. Previous Close: 12/15/2023 [image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE *If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

RATVDC8VB5S20yIm5rID

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in the March 2023 meeting?

will-the-fed-lower-the-fed-funds-ra

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-lower-the-fed-funds-ra

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

In the wake of the SVB crisis, some pundits have predicted that the Fed will move quickly to cut interest rates to stem the crisis. How will the Fed set the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they lower the rate, otherwise NO. Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-b7103e6f1fbf)

N/A

2KMfwYnx32aniIxtTZCJ

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or room-temperature superconductors in the next week?

will-the-economist-publish-an-artic

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Given the enormous amount of hype about LK-99 in so many online spaces including Manifold, I have been very surprised to see the lack of coverage in most mainstream media. As far as I can tell, at time of writing there has been no coverage at all of LK-99 in the Guardian, the Economist or the BBC. Will the Economist publish an article about LK-99 or the purported discovery of a room-temperature superconductor in the next week? Other markets on the subject: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-bbc-news-site-publish-an-a @/SimonGrayson/will-the-guardian-publish-an-articl @/SimonGrayson/will-the-economist-publish-an-artic Resolution criterea: I will count any article which has been published on https://www.economist.com/ by 22:00 BST on Tuesday 8th August. It doesn't matter whether the article is in behind the paywall or not - I have a subscription so I can read anything they publish behind the paywall. I would expect to see the article in their science and technology section, but it still counts if it is published as a standalone article which appears anywhere else on the site. The primary subject of the article must be the potential discovery of a room-temperature superconductor, the specific research and discussion around LK-99 or the reaction to it. An article debunking or dismissing the research or an article about how the whole thing has been a hoax would count, but an article which is primarily about something else but which has a passing mention of LK-99 or superconductors in general would not. Hopefully there won't be any ambiguity (either they publish an article which is primarily about this subject or they don't), but just in case there is some level of subjectivity, I will not trade on this market.

N/A

bIVOc5rfKBcoDsFky9it

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-79cee227e757

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-79cee227e757

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-23 06:45 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 08:45 (UTC)       00:45 (Los Angeles)       03:45 (New York)       09:45 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 02:20        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

Ml4MInayOFeKmGCAFAYF

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will SAP close higher december 8th than the close of december 7th? (Daily Market)

will-sap-close-higher-december-8th-efd8d4095dbf

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-sap-close-higher-december-8th-efd8d4095dbf

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

5BjLZi80XLgTY4YRSKxH

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

JoshuaWilkes

Josh Wilkes

The Rich Eisen Top 5: Juiciest NFL Combine Rumors 1 - The Bears will draft Caleb Williams and trade Justin Fields

the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-4cbf8fdbf876

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-4cbf8fdbf876

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves YES if the Chicago Bears draft Caleb Williams and trade Justin Fields before Week One of the 2024 NFL Season https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zu57mG1-Mtw (https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-2886bd7b315e)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-d03a6048cc0f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-bc106b527850)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/the-rich-eisen-top-5-juiciest-nfl-c-4cbf8fdbf876)

N/A

2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83

zT9KJnNcl0eAPLtq5xby

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Apple close higher than 179.66 on March 8?

will-apple-close-higher-than-17966

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-close-higher-than-17966

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Apple Inc Resolves according to Google Close Price AAPL closes at 4pm EST Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 179.66 Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

7tcVZwiVh6rgC1pVtl5A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Which Team, The Boston Celtics OR Miami Heat Will Have The Highest Scorer On Their Team For Game 6 Of Conference Finals?

which-team-the-boston-celtics-or-mi-b06c9a10f2ff

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/which-team-the-boston-celtics-or-mi-b06c9a10f2ff

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

YES: A Boston Celtics Player NO: A Miami Heat Player If 2 Opposing Players Score The Same Amount (A Tie) Than This Market Will Resolve To Whichever Team Wins The Game. Closes ~3 Hours After Game Starts. Will Resolve After Game Is Officially Completed. Market May Extend If Overtime Is Played. I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market But I Will Probably Eat Up Remaining Liquidity If Any Is Left On The Prediction Books. https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547676 [link preview]

N/A

Ic0U3zF3AIJh9Vw17h7O

S3quHYCnS6Xo4WBpy2j6Iw8QkCF3

SarkanyVar

Sárkány Vár

[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Typhoon Koinu make landfall in Taiwan?

will-typhoon-koinu-make-landfall-in

https://manifold.markets/SarkanyVar/will-typhoon-koinu-make-landfall-in

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Background Typhoon Koinu ('Puppy' in Japanese) is a strong Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone currently in the Philippines Sea, cradle to many western Pacific typhoons. It is forecast to pose significant threat to the Northwest Pacific basin, in particular Taiwan and the southern coasts of China. [image][image]Before Typhoon Haikui, Taiwan had not seen typhoon landfall for several years. Will Koinu make landfall in any part of Taiwan, following the landfall of Haikui in early September merely one month ago? Resolution Criteria Resolves YES if Typhoon Koinu is deemed to have landed in any part of Taiwan by the Central Weather Administration (formerly Central Weather Bureau) of Taiwan, excluding all other outlying islands other than the Taiwan Main Island / Formosa. Examples that would support a YES resolution include a track area product with location of the center and a path history, or a satellite image with annotations from the CWB that denote the landfall of the typhoon in the specified area. Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the CWA before the dissipation of Typhoon Koinu. Will resolve based on CWA data, with supplemented data from JTWC if necessary. I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

N/A

D5mHtnhAHQByiVOrGc3o

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will UO flight 111 from Taipei to Hong Kong on 2023-09-22 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-uo-flight-111-from-taipei-to-h-1a2a387522d6

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-uo-flight-111-from-taipei-to-h-1a2a387522d6

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/2up33e9s

N/A

IIrJ96D27OPIfw8QY9gM

tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2

MaybeNotDepends

MaybeNotDepends

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c

Will Arevalo be inaugurated president of Guatemala?

will-arevalo-be-inaugurated-preside

https://manifold.markets/MaybeNotDepends/will-arevalo-be-inaugurated-preside

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Arevalo won the election. But will he get inaugurated / assume office? Resolves based on official Guatemalan government inauguration process.

N/A

tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2

Ck5cxsXHlxgIrVfLuYZ3

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

strutheo

chris (strutheo)

Will RawChickenExperiment eat raw chicken for 100 days without getting a stomach ache?

will-rawchickenexperiment-eat-raw-c-944157d0aff2

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-rawchickenexperiment-eat-raw-c-944157d0aff2

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Link: https://www.instagram.com/rawchickenexperiment/ Link: https://www.vice.com/en/article/pka8qz/guy-eats-raw-chicken-instagram [image]

N/A

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

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howahlah

howahlah

Will Lily Gladstone win the Oscar for Best Actress at the 96th Academy Awards?

will-lily-gladstone-win-the-oscar-f

https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-lily-gladstone-win-the-oscar-f

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-emma-stone-win-the-oscar-for-b)

N/A

iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2

Tzh9jRZ3BD7YoY96VOL9

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will the US avoid default by raising the debt ceiling?

will-the-us-raise-the-debt-ceiling

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-raise-the-debt-ceiling

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The US has already hit the debt ceiling in Jan 2023 and the Treasury department is using accounting maneuvers to keep paying the bills with so-called "extraordinary measures" (1), which are expected to run out in the summer. At that point, if no action has been taken, the US government will be unable to pay its bills, aka default. Or, the US government could potentially choose to deploy some "gimmick" to circumvent the debt ceiling and avoid default. Will Congress raise the debt ceiling, or will the US government be forced to either default or deploy a "gimmick" to circumvent the debt ceiling? Resolves based on which of these happens first: Resolves YES if the US raises or suspends the debt ceiling Resolves NO if the US defaults on its debt (see @/jack/will-the-us-government-default-on-i ) Resolves NO if the US circumvents the debt ceiling, e.g. by "minting the coin", issuing forms of debt that bypass the debt limit like premium or perpetual bonds, issuing debt that violates the statutory debt ceiling, declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional, etc. See the markets below for a non-comprehensive list of examples that would qualify. The already ongoing "extraordinary measures" do not count because they are normal practice, and they only temporarily delay running out of funds due to the debt ceiling, they do not circumvent it. (1) Extraordinary measures are things like temporarily replacing bonds in federal employee's retirement accounts with IOUs (the bonds are put back with appropriate interest after the debt ceiling crisis is over). They were explicitly legalized by Congress after the 1985 debt ceiling crisis, and they stopped being extraordinary after we used them regularly for decades of past debt ceiling crises. Grouped markets [markets]

N/A

icWA2kKv0tO75ONTQG2o

ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2

Akzzz123

AK