Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

PwX0fa4chWoLKXTk0ATR

KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2

EnopoletusHarding

Enopoletus Harding

Will A. Karlin write a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month?

will-a-karlin-write-a-retrospective

https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-a-karlin-write-a-retrospective

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market will resolve to Yes if A. Karlin writes a retrospective on the Ukrainian conflict before the end of the month. It will resolve to No if he does not. https://akarlin.substack.com

N/A

fgRKxwOx2Ov1dcjCEkLH

FEjxVPee2Ea629lFxmpnbbAoYfl2

tofu

tofu

Will Apple surpass $3 trillion market cap anytime before the end of 2023?

will-apple-surpass-3-trillion-marke

https://manifold.markets/tofu/will-apple-surpass-3-trillion-marke

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://companiesmarketcap.com/apple/marketcap/

N/A

m7Ru8calKRahfjPI1YWV

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

Ernie

Ernie

Will the Barkley Marathons be completed by a woman anytime through 2033

will-the-barkley-marathons-be-compl

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-the-barkley-marathons-be-compl

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

For clarity I'm referring to an XX born woman not known to ever be on male hormones

N/A

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

I32Xvsg5tya8P8HLACdn

Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2

Orca

Orcatron

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c

NFL🏈: Week 17: Will the New York Jets win their TNF NFL Game against the Cleveland Browns on 12/28?

nfl-week-17-will-the-new-york-jets

https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-17-will-the-new-york-jets

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

I will close the betting 2 hours after kickoff to prevent last minute betting based on actual scores on the field. Closes at 7:30 PM PACIFIC TIME!!!

N/A

Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2

2mojMAwXhsJZBr9ebhii

zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03

CquilPromp

Cquil Promp

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c

Will the temperature in Central Park September 14th at 3:51pm be in the 71-73° range?

will-the-temperature-in-central-par-ffb64073ee65

https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-ffb64073ee65

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 71-73° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 14, 2023 ? Question closes 3:00pm ET Resolves according to: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

N/A

gfBD2B6ViLTghomOmuwM

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

MP

MP

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

Will small-cap growth be the best stock market factor in the US in 2023?

will-smallcap-growth-be-the-best-st

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-smallcap-growth-be-the-best-st

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Since 2021, small-cap growth has had one of the worst stints of relative returns in a long time. [image]If the total return for the ETF IWO (Russell 2000 Growth) outperforms the IVE, IVW, and IWN in 2023, this market settles to YES. I will use Koyfin's total return. Other related markets [markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/in-2023-will-the-frenchfama-value-f)

N/A

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

kBFAkN8CSo1tEJJHlZ3t

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will I Hit My April 2024 Office Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist During March 2024?

will-i-hit-my-april-2024-office-exp

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-i-hit-my-april-2024-office-exp

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will I Hit My April 2024 Office Expenses Goal On My BuyMeACoffee Wishlist During March 2024? Resolution: Resolves YES if 100% or more Funded. Resolves NO if 99% or Less is Funded. Context/Link: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sircryptomind/wishlist [image]UPDATED GOAL: [image]I DO NOT BET ON MY MARKETS

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

fQhy9nDGdOu8QTUBEN25

Hc4whU0Kg8gwzkCR41pXRyrL4u02

AndyMartin

Andy Martin

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJw0L052KDniGlcKQYGazhwe1SmubhJvKPt9aqoU=s96-c

Will the "40 mile long convoy" have a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine by May 2022?

will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a

https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-40-mile-long-convoy-have-a

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

From https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/russian-convoy-stalled-outside-kyiv-intl/index.html - > On Thursday, US intelligence suggested that the convoy was still stalled some distance from Kyiv, backing claims made by both the Ukrainian government and UK's defense ministry. > > "We still assess that the convoy that everybody's been focused on is stalled. We have no reason to doubt Ukrainian claims that they have, that they have contributed to it being stalled by attacking it," a senior US official told reporters. > > Earlier in the day, the UK's defense ministry said the convoy appears to have stalled some 30 kilometers (19 miles) outside Kyiv and had made "little discernible progress" over the past three days, citing intelligence. > > "The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30 km from the center of the city, having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days," the UK statement said. By May 2022, will this convoy have had a meaningfully positive impact for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine? In the case of an ambiguous result (ex: only ~10% of the vehicles are actually needed/used; the convoy is used but only with minor effect; etc) this will resolve NO.

N/A

Hsck7UTqeuGCrqkNuG2B

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

SG

SG

Will the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) peg break by the end of 2023?

will-the-hong-kong-dollar-hkd-peg-b

https://manifold.markets/SG/will-the-hong-kong-dollar-hkd-peg-b

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Background: Why was the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the US dollar? / On Betting Against the Hong Kong Dollar (by @ByrneHobart) I define the "peg breaking" as USD/HKD trading at or above HK$7.900 for at least a 24 hour period.

N/A

tlmGNz9kjXc2EteizMORes4qvWl2

8aDY60A3UJDrWzzqi71R

vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1

AVS

AVS

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxOdjufQBz5ZO2pfxGwJKglhiWwsNVt1TDjdChO=s96-c

Will Russia legally prohibit using VPN services or personal VPNs before the end of 2023?

will-russia-legally-prohibit-using

https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-russia-legally-prohibit-using

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market resolves YES if, before the end of 2023, it becomes illegal in Russia to use a VPN for personal purposes. If it is allowed only with special permission or in a way that potentially makes your traffic more vulnerable, this market also resolves YES. If you find any ambiguities in the market resolution criteria, please notify me in the comments. UPD 2022-12-23. Clarification: if it is illegal to use VPN services except for a limited whitelist (including a scenario where only Russian VPN services are allowed), then this market also resolves YES. Other markets about internet censorship in Russia in 2023: [markets]

N/A

vqzP814GiUf0mm7j2SHkiy5vixy1

zr0Vw4lJKTQBZvY7KBJm

lg0za1E37yR4kGP5rcsc5sGUQW73

JeffKaufman

Jeff Kaufman

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6Od8vuN4D1xT20AJN03oeG7Gd36qcbp8ZXuiLRxA=s96-c

Will McHenry as Speaker pro-tempore conduct legislative business?

will-mchenry-as-speaker-protempore

https://manifold.markets/JeffKaufman/will-mchenry-as-speaker-protempore

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

It seems to currently be unclear whether McHenry, in his role as speaker pro-tempore of the House, is able to conduct legislative business: In the meantime, other action on the House floor, including any legislative business, is likely to be halted. House staff aides believe the acting speaker may wield the gavel only to administer the election of a new speaker. But others argue that as acting speaker, Mr. McHenry can exercise powers beyond overseeing a speaker’s race, as long as a majority tolerates it. “From an institutional House rules perspective, Speaker McHenry has the powers of the speakership, and he will continue to exercise those powers to the extent and degree that the majority party is willing to tolerate,” said Josh C. Huder, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University. “If he does something too brash or too bold, they will rein him in. And that’s really the only thing that’s governing his authority.” House rules do not explicitly prohibit the interim speaker from adopting the powers of an elected speaker. But the rule that led to Mr. McHenry’s ascent was developed with only temporary absences in mind, not a vacant chair, according to Stan M. Brand, the former general counsel to the House. That leaves legal room for Mr. McHenry to exercise broader powers, such as conducting legislative business, if he chooses. -- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/us/politics/patrick-mchenry-interim-speaker.html Resolves true if McHenry uses his current pro-tempore position to allow the House to schedule a vote for anything other than a new Speaker. Resolves false otherwise, including if a new Speaker is elected quickly enough that we don't find out whether legislating would have been acceptable.

N/A

R4y8efJjQknBNVoAVk0k

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Destiny's short "Pearl Thinks Women Have it Easier Than Men 😔" reach 10k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST?

will-destinys-short-pearl-thinks-wo

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-short-pearl-thinks-wo

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtube.com/shorts/bN4OeDaIFAE?feature=share If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

KHQk7RFuQHKTgvBlqmTb

ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2

Akzzz123

AK

Will the next Starship Orbital Launch attempt occur before the end of August 2023?

will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4

https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun-aea2cdea34a4

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Orbital Flight Test", "Starship Orbital Launch", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close. Related: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Akzzz123/will-the-next-starship-orbital-laun)

N/A

PDLQZty2N09TjtCV37On

NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2

WillHenry

H. E. L. O - T

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWillHenry%2FboLlcTpR1s.gondra_aguirre-1971478879?alt=media&token=9dd97b51-04f9-4cd7-a8f8-9c12d9cedfde

Will Japan successfully land its lunar probe "moon sniper" within 100 meters of its specified target by January 20th?

will-japan-successfully-land-its-lu

https://manifold.markets/WillHenry/will-japan-successfully-land-its-lu

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Japan’s “Moon Sniper” mission was successfully launched on 6 September 2023 at 23:42 UTC. If the mission is successful, Japan will become the fifth country to touch down safely on the lunar surface, and the first to do it with extraordinary precision. The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (Slim) got its Sniper nickname because it is designed to land within 100 metres of a specific target on the surface. In comparison, the accuracy of the 1969 Apollo 11 Eaglelunar module was an elliptic which was 20 km (12 mi) long in downrange and 5 km (3.1 mi) wide in crossrange. According to Yoshifumi Inatani, deputy director general of the JAXA Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), succeeding in this extremely precise landing will lead to enhanced quality of space exploration. SLIM was successfully launched together with the X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) space telescope on 6 September 2023 at 23:42 UTC (7 September 08:42 Japan Standard Time) and is to land near Shioli crater (13.3°S, 25.2°E) via Weak stability boundary like trajectory. SLIM entered lunar orbit 25 December JST. The moon landing is scheduled for 19 January 2024 15:20:00 UTC.

N/A

NaOxfCzBKCX4Th76aI4aPMAI4tU2

mT14ONZ6i6q48mP17ogD

c4Cw1UMPB9U2Gf5m2eDTw35WK263

Dentosal

Dentosal

Will manifold.love reach 50 active profiles in Europe by end of 2024?

will-manifoldlove-reach-50-active-p

https://manifold.markets/Dentosal/will-manifoldlove-reach-50-active-p

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Definitions: Will - This is what makes this a question manifold.love - Manifold-related dating app that's supposed to launch soon. In case the service is hosted at different domain, as long as it's run by Manifold, it still counts. reach 50 - The number will be this high at least once before the market closes active profiles - People who have a profile and are looking for dates, and have used the service withing a month. If possible, I will not count obvious spam, bots or scammers. in Europe - If there is any official statistics using some definition of Europe, I will use that as well. Otherwise, I will use the map on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe infobox as it was on 2023-10-16, rounding uncertain cases (e.g. profile says "Russia") to be in Europe. Note that this means physical location, so If a person is travelling in Europe and that's mentioned in the profile, it will still count as "in Europe" for that time. by end of 2024 - Resolves NO when year changes to 2025, if the profile count has not been reached Resolution: Resolves YES immediately, if there is an official dashboard showing this statistic, and the conditions have been fullfilled. Same goes if someone provides me proof that this is the case. At least a statement by Manifold employee or an analysis on publicly available data could do this. Resolves N/A if there's no credible evidence pointing to either direction. For instance, if majority of the profiles contain no location information, this will likely be the case. Resolves NO if the statistics, a statement or an analysis indicates that the conditions have not been fullfilled. Resolves NO if the service hasn't launched by market close.

N/A

LAyOnFiStH1zvedB0Eea

DMDx71NrJPSBsUJrRcrGPVFUp0H2

erwald

Erich

Will the Swedish Social Democrats stay in power after the 2022 election?

will-the-swedish-social-democrats-s

https://manifold.markets/erwald/will-the-swedish-social-democrats-s

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves positively if the first government formed after the 2022 Swedish general election has a Social Democratic prime minister, and negatively otherwise. => https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Swedish_general_election

N/A

G1fp49RN9sI8h064R3ED

jKFmyVeG2gcn01NekfR0sJYHuqt2

drewski

drewski

Will Oregon's Extreme Drought end by the end of 2023?

will-oregons-extreme-drought-end-by

https://manifold.markets/drewski/will-oregons-extreme-drought-end-by

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The Pacific Northwest has been hit hard by drought this year after a very dry summer. [image]Currently Much of the Oregon cascades are seeing extreme drought (D3) as categorized by the US drought monitor: Oregon | U.S. Drought Monitor (unl.edu). There is currently 4.32% of the state in Extreme drought. Resolves to YES if there is no more D3 or D4 in the state of Oregon at the end of the year, as reported by the US drought monitor. Edit 10/19. If the D3 or D4 is gone before the end of the year, the market will resolve to YES

N/A

pProH3FDv5fj8gyM3gaa

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

FranklinBaldo

Franklin Baldo

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c

Will the White House Press Secretary giggle when asked about UFOs before 2024?

will-the-white-house-press-secretar

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-the-white-house-press-secretar

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market is about the reaction of the White House Press Secretary when asked about Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs). The question is whether the Press Secretary will giggle during a press conference when asked about UFOs before the end of 2023. Resolution Criteria: The market will resolve to 'Yes' if there is credible video evidence or multiple reliable reports from news outlets indicating that the Press Secretary giggled when asked about UFOs in a press conference before 2024. The market will resolve to 'No' otherwise.

N/A

EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1

vQfo2GSy85ZTiC9Z8H3P

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will a strategic (not tactical) nuclear weapon be detonated offensively in 2022?

will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-strategic-not-tactical-nucle

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This question will resolve as YES if a strategic nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO. Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus): Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage. The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count. For the purposes of this question, a strategic nuclear weapon is a weapon designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior (away from the war front) against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets, while a non-strategic nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon designed mostly to be used on a battlefield, near friendly forces, or on or near friendly territory. There is no exact definition on weapon yields or ranges. But note that this question is about the type of weapon, not the type of target; it's conceivable that a non-strategic weapon could be used against the sort of target strategic weapons are designed for or vice versa. I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8584/nsnw-as-the-first-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive, and whether it counts as strategic.

N/A

xgTsMqEmICGjh7qsjKlU

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)

will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d0d80681f1d

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7d0d80681f1d

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2024-01-22 20:25 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2024-01-22 - 22:25 (UTC)       14:25 (Los Angeles)       17:25 (New York)       23:25 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 06:45        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

9wm4j7AjFpnJ6zaSqDlH

nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972

SEE

SEE

Will Joe Biden still be alive on March 1st, 2024?

will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ma

https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ma

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival. As usual, I will not bet on my own market.

N/A

nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972

8WajmyxW9RgpHQKwepdu

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 30 than it closed on December 29?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-3-0295f07fe09d

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-3-0295f07fe09d

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $ Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

aleQp9vvxnkBm1YFnUVO

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will Angela Bassett win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress for her role as Queen Ramonda in the movie 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' at the 95th Academy Awards?

will-angela-bassett-win-the-oscar-f

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-angela-bassett-win-the-oscar-f

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves YES if Bassett wins, NO otherwise. Other Oscars markets: https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023

N/A

d4A7ULDD82VjviuTmsSl

Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2

Orca

Orcatron

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c

NFL🏈: Week 18 -- Will the Chicago Bears win their NFL Game against the Green Bay Packers on 01/07?

nfl-week-18-will-the-chicago-bears

https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-18-will-the-chicago-bears

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market. I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!

N/A

Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2

D8AfXeG0jN2I2lEb8K4h

cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2

jskf

jskf

Will Mirrorbot reach its $300 funding goal on Manifund?

will-mirrorbot-reach-its-funding-go

https://manifold.markets/jskf/will-mirrorbot-reach-its-funding-go

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

I've applied for funding from the Manifold Community Fund to work on @mirrorbot. Will my project reach its funding bar? Project: https://manifund.org/projects/mirrorbot

N/A

cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2

zTGVrYU1Ruv1ghAaHsHL

m8lA990CnzTyoyz0pBL9MRlTpjB2

EltonDuncanIV

Elton Duncan IV

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIsJ1W97Uw4NtMKx6SWrr8BPXXwtaCaJ0r0P8DbtfUEXhs=s96-c

Will U Penn President Magill resign or be fired before 2024?

will-u-penn-president-magill-resign

https://manifold.markets/EltonDuncanIV/will-u-penn-president-magill-resign

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

 Numerous college presidents are facing criticism about their responses to antisemitism on their campuses. But none more than University of Pennsylvania President Liz Magill.

N/A

m8lA990CnzTyoyz0pBL9MRlTpjB2

8uASiydvbNbVQ5jT0X2X

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will FR flight 3918 from London to Palermo on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-fr-flight-3918-from-london-to

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-3918-from-london-to

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/yysmreyz

N/A

jL0o2kxzlX1qskXpoSv2

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will the TSX close higher on August 30 than it did on August 29?

will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-3ab8313c4264

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-3ab8313c4264

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI Trading in this market counts towards the ▲ SirCryptomind ▲ Crypto & Stock ▲ leaderboard. Q3 2023 (July/August/September) Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard: 1st place - Ṁ3,000 2nd place - Ṁ2,000 3rd place - Ṁ1,000 4th place = Ṁ500 5th place - Ṁ250 @SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.

N/A

sGVOjWd9sHZDpSmLn0kV

1S7jGo8r1kSoOiQDY8dLWy62o7l2

Princeps

Princeps

Will the Canadian Liberal party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the NDP still be in place after Budget 2024?

will-the-canadian-liberal-partys-su

https://manifold.markets/Princeps/will-the-canadian-liberal-partys-su

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The NDP has repeatedly threatened to pull out of their supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberal party. Will this agreement still be in effect after Budget 2024 passes Parliament? Note that an election does not necessarily need to be called for this question to resolve to YES. For example, one party could pull out of the agreement but the Government could still survive the budget confidence vote. If an election is held and the Liberal party no longer is the Government, this question resolves to NO.

N/A

1S7jGo8r1kSoOiQDY8dLWy62o7l2

8fJNiIL9PdVhQoESN2dm

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 5 than Apr 4?

will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b18bd1c46b39

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b18bd1c46b39

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price AAPL closes at 4pm ET This market closes at 3:30pm ET Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled. Resolves YES if AAPL closes higher Apr 5 than Apr 4 Resolves NO if AAPL closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

fZJa8vi9hA4bzjyNydl9

lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33

brp

Bjorn

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c

Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on August 1, 2023?

will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect-5354dc8578af

https://manifold.markets/brp/will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect-5354dc8578af

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

To resolve with a load of bbc.com/news/health. In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market.

N/A

KzfzIV8F7BGnsFMTOpXz

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 300k views?

will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c26e1fc849a3

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c26e1fc849a3

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolution base on the video view counts on Lex Fridman's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman/videos Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 300k views at the end of the month (Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) *Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

aE6yx91qHp97GirxFmlF

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

strutheo

chris (strutheo)

The poodle was one of the AKC's top 5 most popular dog breeds in 2021 and 2022. Will it still be for 2023?

the-poodle-was-one-of-the-akcs-top

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/the-poodle-was-one-of-the-akcs-top

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Info: https://www.akc.org/most-popular-breeds/

N/A

hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2

SjBJopn3bwQ8Z2pL4D2E

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-a803ef3cf8de

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-a803ef3cf8de

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $6.87 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

KcfmuWlSF1r8RPuBvNfY

uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2

SirSalty

David Chee

Will I push a change that is destructive to Manifold Markets 2023?

will-i-push-a-change-that-is-destru

https://manifold.markets/SirSalty/will-i-push-a-change-that-is-destru

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

I've recently started coding with the help of GPT. I have essentially 0 background in programming aside from 3 months of using python to do trivial plotting in a biology course a few years ago. That being said, I have started to become more familiar with a lot of technical terms due to being surrounded by a team of SWEs. And have had some help from the team with setting up my environment. Most of the code itself and problem-solving for errors were done by myself and GPT. Some things I've done in the past week in probably a total of 6-8 hours since I've started, include: Adding "view all users" to the omnisearch Adding the ability to query users by the slug on the all-users page. Creating scripts to export various email lists as a .csv from our database depending on certain field conditions. Creating a script that swaps a specific creator's unlisted markets to listed. The probability of this market should be both a reflection of how far I can take coding using GPT to teach me as well as my incompetence. Things that count as destructive include: Leaking some private key, user information etc. Taking down the entire site Cause some significant part of Manifold to stop functioning at all (eg live feed returns an error when trying to render. Causing some bug that changes the functionality from desired does not count). Also if anyone else has ideas on fun markets to predict how my coding ability will progress with GPT's help let me know!

N/A

3cyeuYPvpIbdnD5noGB3

zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03

CquilPromp

Cquil Promp

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c

Will the temperature in Central Park September 5th at 3:51pm be in the 83-85° range?

will-the-temperature-in-central-par-30ce8149d86c

https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-30ce8149d86c

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 83-85° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 5, 2023 ? Question closes 3:00pm ET Resolves according to: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

N/A

sOt10oViKCGsTNPdaOY7

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

RemNi

RemNi

Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Jun 2024?

will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2

https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by June 1st 2024 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777 @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 (this question) @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730 @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204 @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e @/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8

N/A

GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1

rHk3cMs2N6UYu1vWWG0s

VSjqA9XwaVWYhuEkLSpFMOsjbkY2

daniel

Daniel

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BUIjYnmW6EiqrrA4hT1XZlEHaS15rTBLx8sXC-g=s96-c

Will inflation in the US be between 5-6% in January 2023?

will-inflation-in-the-us-be-between

https://manifold.markets/daniel/will-inflation-in-the-us-be-between

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES if CPI-U is in the interval [295.206, 298.016] at next publication. Market can be used to arb related markets below. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 Related markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel1901/will-inflation-stay-above-60-in-jan)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel1901/will-inflation-in-the-us-fall-below)

N/A

Lh5dhEtStAREe7YG6VB5

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will the TSX close higher on November 20 than it did on November 17?

will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-4484657eef31

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-4484657eef31

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [link preview]

N/A

aInCujKBxFjldG9s59Cq

QPw915xrcfcPZ6Q14V5J3I3twP33

ianminds

ianminds

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJz4sOwgc--JVmwpCvgc2lcYgi17CQkkmgBdXCiK=s96-c

Will Vincent Van Quickenborne resign as Minister of Justice of Belgium?

will-vincent-van-quickenborne-resig

https://manifold.markets/ianminds/will-vincent-van-quickenborne-resig

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

A little context: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/09/05/justice-minister-says-he-acted-after-guests-at-his-home-urinated/ https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/09/05/justice-minister-called-to-give-explanation-to-mps-about-urinati/ Clarification: Resolves YES if he resigns at any time during his term (including when the goverment is in "lopende zaken").

N/A

0UZHlbTZevvwlUKuLVuG

CrPGjKJkCMd2MxE2spQ6aWMJh2P2

oh

Sundry

Will Central Park, NYC get more than 25 inches of snowfall this winter?

will-central-park-nyc-get-more-than

https://manifold.markets/oh/will-central-park-nyc-get-more-than

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves as soon it gets at least 25in, otherwise resolves NO in April. Ugly graph for your convenience: [image]

N/A

EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1

TiHyABqxKVFxkg9iY24d

CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2

Carrotcake

Supreme Carrot

Will Aljamain Sterling beat Calvin Kattar at UFC 300?

will-aljamain-sterling-beat-calvin

https://manifold.markets/Carrotcake/will-aljamain-sterling-beat-calvin

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

•This market will resolve in a YES if Aljamain Sterling wins the fight. •A draw will resolve in a NO. •A defeat of Aljamain Sterling will result in a NO. •A disqualification of Aljamain Sterling will be considered a loss. • The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled • The market will resolve in a YES in case Calvin Kattar is disqualified. • A disqualification of Calvin Kattar will result in a YES. • A Forfeit by Calvin Kattar will result in a No

N/A

CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2

2HG9hYxaROScIwuUKwD9

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

BTE

Brian T. Edwards

Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary?

will-trump-win-the-north-carolina-p

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-win-the-north-carolina-p

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Nov 16, 1:05pm: Will Trump win the North Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? Nov 16, 1:06pm: Will Trump win the Sorth Carolina Primary? → Will Trump win the South Carolina Primary?

N/A

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

WBHwymLuPnrFdooJUwhM

N7Cto6nExlWhEEvaTTkU3LbaLZV2

BigChungus

Big Chungus

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AItbvml980-A_7MMgiiaLKrtjU9wpNeszPqd-_ea2-Dm=s96-c

Will Anthony Fantano rate Bladee's next album Spiderr a 6 or higher?

will-anthony-fantano-rate-bladees-n

https://manifold.markets/BigChungus/will-anthony-fantano-rate-bladees-n

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Spiderr will be released September 30. The market closes October 2. I will resolve it once Anthony Fantano drops a rating or N/A if he doesn't rate it within a few weeks. Hopefully this gives people a chance to bet only on their own impression of the album. Single from the album that he shared: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGdiQm4wI2M Anthony Fantano's previous ratings of Bladee (earliest to latest): Red Light: 1 Exeter: 5 333: 6 The Fool: 6 Crest (w/Ecco2k): 8 Sep 26, 1:55pm:

N/A

xURuWchEqhLUdabHuWDn

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on Thu. December 14th than it closed on Wed. December 13th? {DAILY}

will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1e3e76095c8

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1e3e76095c8

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC) Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day. Previous Close : [image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE *If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC WEEKLY MARKETS (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-f120c1081ec4)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-nasdaq-average-58b-total-volum-f845bbd9b5a7)

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

buCpbHKZUkDAqrywHcYT

acvO0NAsghTTgGjnsdwt94O44OT2

vluzko

Vincent Luczkow

Will any new proof about the safety of transferring RL agents from one environment to another be published by March 2023?

will-any-new-proof-about-the-safety-e539a3b0b971

https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-any-new-proof-about-the-safety-e539a3b0b971

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

"Published" means in some kind of peer-reviewed outlet, OR by some established research group in whatever outlet they use, OR at my discretion. This rule is here to save me from checking someone's 100 page wordpress proof claiming to solve alignment, not because I care about the proof going through proper academic channels. Examples: An agent trained on environment A has a greater minimum reward on environment B than an agent trained on just environment B An agent trained on environment A has a lower maximum impact on environment B than an agent trained on just environment B Either of those but for some other safety property

N/A

yqdtmlYpCttjk4c8PeS0

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on December 22nd than it closed on December 15th? {WEEKLY}

will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-13274207f09c

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-13274207f09c

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay. Predictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC) Resolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash Resolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day. Previous Close : 12/15/2023 [image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded) I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE *If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

Ccu05FLJp8Vswdo7GJN9

ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1

Alana

Alana

Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023

anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ

https://manifold.markets/Alana/anthropic-publicly-commits-to-activ

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

See Evan Hubinger's post: https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Km9sHjHTsBdbgwKyi/monitoring-for-deceptive-alignment Close date updated to 2025-12-31 3:59 pm Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm Dec 5, 1:32am: Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models → Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2025 Dec 5, 1:32am: Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2025 → Anthropic publicly commits to actively monitor and look for evidence of deceptive alignment in their models by the end of 2023 Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

N/A

ZjyCGOOFwnQzbPvO0Jq8CIEz4Zq1

jfRf9nOXi8brd48Z7T5p

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-29 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-4ba47e3618d1

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-4ba47e3618d1

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2023-12-28 23:30 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 01:30 (UTC)       17:30 (Los Angeles)       20:30 (New York)       02:30 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 07:00        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the "Flight Gate Times" labelled "Actual" (see details here) Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

OqmUIx9yacUn22M61Nxn

zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1

_deleted_

~deleted~

Will Emmett Shear, the interim CEO of OpenAI, no longer be in this position within a month?

will-emmett-shear-the-interim-ceo-o

https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-emmett-shear-the-interim-ceo-o

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

within a month = 30 days from when he was appointed CEO of OpenAI. He says I have a three point plan for the next 30 days: - Hire an independent investigator to dig into the entire process leading up to this point and generate a full report. Continue to speak to as many of our employees, partners, investors, and customers as possible, take good notes, and share the key takeaways. Reform the management and leadership team in light of recent departures into an effective force to drive results for our customers.

N/A

KgHETkYIwX02NXYvvipH

H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1

MP

MP

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf

Will the hike cycle that begun in 2022 have a 50bps rate hike in 2023 or 2024?

will-the-hike-cycle-that-begun-in-2

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-the-hike-cycle-that-begun-in-2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market resolves to no by Dec 31st 2024 or when the Fed either cut rates or spends 90 days not hiking. This market resolves to YES if they hike by 50bps in a meeting. I will sum special meetings if necessary (a special meeting + a regular one with 25bps each).

N/A

G6y1zKaYixsXsNbLwfFJ

mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2

StopPunting

Stop Punting

Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - Frenemy of the year?

will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8bd6f989316

https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-a8bd6f989316

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/SkepticIC/who-will-be-destinys-frenemy-of-the)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another. This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as "YES", any other and it will resolve as "NO". "Other" counts as everybody else in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand) Using Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet: https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046 Please no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious). I will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets.

N/A

mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2

KzbRvMuwCoKYvG2KEuE0

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?

will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-3d7ea3987fe5

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-3d7ea3987fe5

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day. Resolves to No otherwise. Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

dgVAQExp1OGqlokv4CID

9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13

johnleoks

johnleoks

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c

Will Vaush's video "Some Teachers Aren't Allowed To Say If Slavery Is Bad Or Not" reach 50k views by 3/22 9 A.M. PST?

will-vaushs-video-some-teachers-are

https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-some-teachers-are

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://youtu.be/Udp31GpJWzI If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved. If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons.

N/A

5KCs7RicEYblsWAsxfo4

fjH3IfE5jYRePCRM08KptMMwiKu1

ForexDude

Forex Dude

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtexf-1VDsOLJgffV39h2gmfns88xkHq1R8Pn3gq=s96-c

Will Real Clear Politics RCP have Trump +2 or more over Biden by Jun 17th EOD

will-real-clear-politics-rcp-have-t

https://manifold.markets/ForexDude/will-real-clear-politics-rcp-have-t

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

General Election Matchup This will resolve to Yes if RCP resolves to +2 or more for Trump over Joe Biden by June 17th, EOD (24:00 Eastern Time) in the general election matchup for Trump vrs Biden. As of June 10th, it was +1.8 for Trump over Joe Biden. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ [link preview]

N/A

O2y8GFiKmjpwA47tD4i0

NNse8ZFTtZaZGHPIgVZMmYK0noz1

array_wake

array_wake

Will Google Gemini(Ultra) be released before April 1, 2024?

will-google-geminiultra-be-released

https://manifold.markets/array_wake/will-google-geminiultra-be-released

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

-The model should be publicly available in some form(integration with bard would be reasonable).This is the condition under which I will resolve the market to YES. -If you have any other suggestions on what to add to this to make the market more reasonable,then please comment -If real world throws a curveball so intense that we can't make head or toes of it then I will resolve N/A.

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

QwFbyrYPINhdEkMdl9kO

VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2

meh

mjh

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmeh%2F-FCJ_xuzNs.59?alt=media&token=6f5d7b9a-38c0-4956-b7fc-6f1795ead647

Will Bayer Leverkusen complete the 2023-24 Bundesliga season unbeaten?

will-bayer-leverkusen-complete-the

https://manifold.markets/meh/will-bayer-leverkusen-complete-the

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves NO if Bayer Leverkusen loses to any team in any Bundesliga matches for the remainder of the 2023-2024 season. Resolves YES otherwise. Domestic cup match losses or Europa League losses are not contemplated by this question.

N/A

VutNSM1pulf0iLjFlNUtgVLKUzr2

uNQzy4gbZKaS86Eitb0F

rehzwDqU0MYBPeNuROMa0NNCbax1

thesash

Sash Catanzarite

Will more acres burn during the 2023 California wildfire season than burned in 2022?

will-more-acres-burn-during-the-202

https://manifold.markets/thesash/will-more-acres-burn-during-the-202

BINARY

cpmm-1