Datasets:

jdpressman

/

manifold-baseline-curated-v0

like 1

dV84RpqGrGnFVzicLWRt

NbfRYOXDPFSiBIElBFKfBMEbVZi1

KendallDavis

Kendall Davis

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZ020yGLkFEbjgdIYeT-3smY-VvrNpDjq0PtUYr=s96-c

Will Japan win the 2023 World Baseball Classic?

will-japan-win-the-2023-world-baseb

https://manifold.markets/KendallDavis/will-japan-win-the-2023-world-baseb

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Japan is currently in the finals for the World Baseball Classic against the USA. Will they win?

N/A

XlcXBJ05mxnjFxTAdX8J

NK7fpQHv6PeLsBkqsE0rwMYH9iL2

AntonioAlonsoStepanov

Antonio Alonso-Stepanov

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdfMXelduEcqHug77k6sR6Tav7Wh57HyHBOFDdVP92ExEvf=s96-c

Will Princeton University remain the #1 National University on the upcoming US News rankings?

will-princeton-university-remain-th

https://manifold.markets/AntonioAlonsoStepanov/will-princeton-university-remain-th

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

N/A

KfuqfQPFbjU2srxJDHC6

jbgplxty4kUKIa1MmgZk22byJq03

Undox

Undox

Communal Chess Game! Will White Win?

communal-chess-game-will-white-win

https://manifold.markets/Undox/communal-chess-game-will-white-win

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

We will play a communal chess game according to these rules: Each user account is allowed to play one move of the game, can be black or white. To make a move, make a trade, and then comment using PGN notation what the move is. I will use https://www.apronus.com/chess/pgnviewer/ to validate moves. Invalid ones are ignored. I will periodically post the valid moves so far, for everyone's convenience, so they can be pasted into the link above to view. *Cheating* One problem is that someone could make a trade and then back fill a comment AFTER someone has made a move. I don't like that as an allowed thing, so if someone did that, call it out and I will check the timestamps in the JSON and make a judgement. But please don't do that to save everyone time! *Resolution* White Wins = YES Black Wins = NO Stalemate/Draw = NA Neutral trades (buy and immediately sell) to make a move a welcome are welcome Mar 4, 9:10pm: i will use an engine to make a move when no move has been made for 12h, idea from @Gurkenglas Mar 5, 9:45pm: To encourage the game flow, including collisions, I am going to change the rules: **** From now anyone can play any number of moves in this game BUT one account cannot make 2 consecutive moves. ****

N/A

xg6ViEmbk9gtlQfTASNC

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

MatthewBarnett

Matthew Barnett

Will an entity be confirmed to have purchased at least 100,000 H100 GPUs before January 1st, 2024?

will-an-entity-purchase-at-least-10

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-an-entity-purchase-at-least-10

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The demand for high-performance computing hardware, particularly NVIDIA's H100 Tensor Core GPU, has seen a surge with the rise of advanced artificial intelligence applications. Major investments, like the one seen with Inflection AI which purchased 22,000 H100 GPUs, emphasize the increasing need for these GPUs in large-scale AI projects. Will any entity, anywhere in the world, be confirmed to have placed an order for a cumulative total of at least 100,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs by January 1st, 2024? Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2024, credible evidence confirms that an entity, such as a government, corporation, non-profit, university, or single individual: Placed a valid order for a cumulative total of at least 100,000 NVIDIA H100 Tensor Core GPUs. Provided proof of this purchase intent through: a. Official statements or press releases from the entity itself, NVIDIA, or any other relevant stakeholder. b. Credible news reports or articles from well-established media outlets known for reliable reporting in the tech industry. c. Financial reports or documentation that disclose the intended purchase quantity of GPUs. Made this purchase intent for any purpose, including research, deployment in data centers, commercial product development, or any other use. Evidence of intent to purchase from secondary markets, i.e., intending to buy from a third party that is not NVIDIA, will also be considered valid as long as the entity's total intended GPU order reaches the 100,000 threshold. All cards labeled "H100" will count as an H100 GPU for the purpose of this question. Dual H100 NVL cards count as two H100 GPUs for the purpose of this question. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts, to ensure the criteria are met and that there is solid evidence of an entity's purchase for the specified number of GPUs.

N/A

AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2

6ugI3ILMEFAWL0Otm69I

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will XLM close higher on December 25 than it closed on December 24?

will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-e168d227c8a9

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-e168d227c8a9

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. Resolves based on Google Finance reporting Previous Close: $ Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS$

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

GIEBR2LThgVyqtuUebfQ

kCgN17TBsrWb0ECQgrgNVqIPJep1

elenac

elenac

Will Dune 2 gross over 600 million (worldwide) by the end of April 2024?

will-dune-2-gross-over-600-million

https://manifold.markets/elenac/will-dune-2-gross-over-600-million

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This bet will refer to: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/

N/A

kCgN17TBsrWb0ECQgrgNVqIPJep1

IsC77IrlhQBleIxDXsKd

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

DanielFilan

Daniel Filan

Will Mickey Mouse be listed by the ADL as a hate symbol on March 1 2024?

will-mickey-mouse-be-listed-by-the

https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-mickey-mouse-be-listed-by-the

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves according to the ADL's hate symbol database: https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbols/search If a specific type of Mickey Mouse (e.g. "Mickey wearing a hoodie") is listed, that counts for a Yes resolution.

N/A

yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2

EI8L37ImZZ61MmqBlBJZ

kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2

Ernie

Ernie

Will there be a Manifold conference with >200 attendees on a single day in 2023?

will-there-be-a-manifold-conference-3f9511cca746

https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-there-be-a-manifold-conference-3f9511cca746

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

at least 200 people attending a conf on the same day

N/A

qb73vDCW2GLKad2hlEUQ

b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3

MarcusAbramovitch

Marcus Abramovitch

Will Sam Altman testify before congress by May 31?

will-sam-altman-testify-before-cong

https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-sam-altman-testify-before-cong

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman testifies before the US congress in any capacity by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

N/A

jY4XcfpHj8YMUDT8rzYI

ENjSHoCXnRNEBJPZsNi7zaGGoJT2

VaibhavGupta

Vaibhav Gupta

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb-2zG9DyM1Oj2hEcbvj1CpBg2v9yA0bzHFTD-j=s96-c

Will the 2023 Speed Chess Championship final be between Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen?

will-the-2023-speed-chess-champions

https://manifold.markets/VaibhavGupta/will-the-2023-speed-chess-champions

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Hikaru is the top seed. Carlsen is the 2nd seed. More info about the bracket: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2023-speed-chess-championship [link preview]

N/A

TSVl9U6If5RVmnFweJve

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

(Game 2) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 25 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)

game-2-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/game-2-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Edmonton Oilers lead the series 1-0 Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 25 Game starts 7pm CST This market closes at 7pm CST on May 25 Resolves YES or NO . Hockey games don't tie. (https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games)

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

amJYKLI0GMYBlRcwTQcm

Fz12fyQzT0cnfaSp2iOYvLsYmTi1

asmith

Andrew Smith

Will the Donkey Kongs win against the Ganondorfs in the Melee crew battle at Super Smash Con?

if-the-5v5-ganon-vs-dk-super-smash

https://manifold.markets/asmith/if-the-5v5-ganon-vs-dk-super-smash

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://supersmashcon.com/2023-schedule/ roster here: https://twitter.com/SuperSmashCon/status/1687248861058748416

N/A

lTXtAlxF5amj49Xp6ivd

jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52

MetaculusBot

Metaculus Bot

Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections? (Law and Justice (PiS))

which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-c3559dd2a9cf

https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-party-will-win-the-most-seats-c3559dd2a9cf

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

From https://metaculus.com/questions/15768/law-and-justice-pis/

N/A

yJzjs8S02IYMyhkOeMfn

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

mattyb

Matty B

Will Alphabet (GOOG) close at/above $150 a share in January 2024?

will-alphabet-goog-close-atabove-15

https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-alphabet-goog-close-atabove-15

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Will Alphabet (GOOG) close any trading days in January 2024 with shares at, or above, $150/share? Resolves NO at the end of trading on January 31st otherwise.

N/A

oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2

IhuwdG9ak0dIAKV7s1V6

zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03

CquilPromp

Cquil Promp

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c

Will the temperature in Central Park August 15th at 3:51pm be in the 82-84° range?

will-the-temperature-in-central-par-1a199a715670

https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-1a199a715670

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 82-84° range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Aug 15, 2023 ? Question closes 3:00pm ET Resolves according to: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

N/A

49N2Z2ULSi3FXkmlgm7z

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher december 01th than the close of november 24th? (WeeklyMarket)

will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-b14a0a3c3a49

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-b14a0a3c3a49

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

WSGQfaBG1l0Pmry9iIz9

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will England make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?

will-england-make-it-to-the-2023-ru-8e6b85724a37

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-england-make-it-to-the-2023-ru-8e6b85724a37

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.

N/A

i6rwahHsrwmgE4NZRXp3

wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03

StefanXJ7

Stefan XJ7

Will Donald Trump announce his VP pick by the end of April?

will-donald-trump-announce-his-vp-p

https://manifold.markets/StefanXJ7/will-donald-trump-announce-his-vp-p

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will Donald Trump announce his selection for vice president by the end of April? YES: Donald Trump selects a running mate during the month of April NO: It is May 1, 2024, and Trump has not yet named his VP note 1: if Trump drops out of race, dies, or in any other way not a candidate anymore during the month of April, this will resolve NO; unless he named a running mate before dropping out, in which case this resolves YES note 2: if Trump selects a VP, but then changes his mind and de-selects that person, this question will still resolve YES because he did name someone note 3: if Trump goes completely insane and selects his imaginary friend, an animal, an extraterrestrial, or an inanimate object for vice president, this question will still resolve YES, because no one said the VP must be human

N/A

wTpiBh1A7OYTQVFhZNFfZ9DwHI03

cSGEZ3HoGpdMLKFAG1mq

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will Manifold Market be more popular than Kalshi during Feb 2024?

will-manifold-market-be-more-popula-0e37f36f3af7

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-market-be-more-popula-0e37f36f3af7

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

I'll look at the google trend search volume of "Manifold Markets" and "Kalshi" over Feb 2024 and visually decide if Manifold Markets have more search volume than Kalshi https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=manifold%20markets,kalshi&hl=en Resolves Yes if Manifold Markets has higher google search volume than Kalshi over Feb 2024. *If someone in the comment session came up with a more rigorous method of determining which term has a higher search volume, I will like use that method for resolution.

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

yTDBoyH5RVnagyDw9nnk

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

jack

Jack

Will there be a deadly military conflict between Russian and NATO armed forces in 2023?

will-there-be-a-deadly-military-con-0cfb3370a0ac

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-there-be-a-deadly-military-con-0cfb3370a0ac

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves YES if in 2023 kinetic military action takes place between Russian and NATO armed forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise. Resolution details Must be between armed forces on both sides, a military attack on civilians does not count. Both accidental or intentional conflict will count for this question. Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of similar Metaculus questions such as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/. Determination of which armed forces were combatants and whether it caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was.

N/A

YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23

3kxWiRqQTo51txLch0pA

YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2

OllieG

Ollie G

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c

Will Biden post about the solar eclipse on Twitter?

will-biden-post-about-the-solar-ecl

https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-biden-post-about-the-solar-ecl

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

"The total solar eclipse on April 8 is causing such a stir because the rare event — where the shadow of the moon will plunge a narrow strip of land into darkness in the middle of the day — is an astronomical experience like no other that will be unusually accessible to millions of people." (source) Resolves YES if Biden makes any mention of the solar eclipse on his Twitter account between April 2 and EOD April 8, 2024. Trading closes on April 6th. Clarifying details: Retweets will count Biden can be thought of as "Biden and team;" tweets coming from his personal account or any campaign accounts using his name will be considered.

N/A

YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2

CkSqIOdHF6tedu0B6CfR

rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2

SimonGrayson

Simon Grayson

Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 24th May be below 9%?

will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-6d0760bc546a

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-6d0760bc546a

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday. This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months. Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released): January 2023 - 10.5% February 2023 - 10.1% March 2023 - 10.4% April 2023 - 10.1% May 2023 - TBC (The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 9.0%)

N/A

AcUgjzA6XJbmhhx4kCZ2

IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2

GeorgeVii

GeorgeVii

Will CZ have a higher net worth in 2023 than in 2022?

will-cz-have-a-higher-net-worth-in

https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-cz-have-a-higher-net-worth-in

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Will Forbes estimate CZs networth to be higher or lower next year? Will he have net benefited from latest CT shenanigans or will the market have even recovered by then?

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

3zYK1J3TCDckRw9Qtfa4

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher decmeber 8th than the close of december 7th? (Daily Market)

will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-dec-3acad078c2b4

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-dec-3acad078c2b4

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ. Predictions ends 1 hour earlier. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

cv2rbF02qMGLuR42fxy1

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

Will Lucid close higher Dec 20 than Dec 13? (LCID Weekly)

will-lucid-close-higher-dec-20-than

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-lucid-close-higher-dec-20-than

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

LCID closes at 4pm EST. This market closes 1 hour earlier Previous Close Price: 4.49 This market will be resolved based on Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten

N/A

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

cUULcXBjAdyxKz5VWYz7

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

Will DOT close higher on December 15 than it closed on December 14?

will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-324c8273024e

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-324c8273024e

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Question closes an hour before 12 UTC. View the live price Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page Previous Close: $7.53 Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

N/A

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

GEP53ydAJ46Yf84KohdM

4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2

BTE

Brian T. Edwards

Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia?

will-trump-be-charged-by-the-grand

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-charged-by-the-grand

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Resolves YES if Trump is charged with a felony by the grand jury. Aug 3, 5:41pm: Will Trump be charged by the grand jury in Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? → Will Trump be charged by the DA in Fulton County Georgia for his attempts to overturn election in Georgia? Close date updated to 2025-12-31 11:59 pm

N/A

aYgUgFC0LNhbeuCvllQN

EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1

chrisjbillington

Chris Billington

Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 successfully perform an internal propellant transfer?

will-starshipsuperheavy-ift3-succes

https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-starshipsuperheavy-ift3-succes

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

In December 2023, NASA made statements that SpaceX would demonstrate an internal propellant transfer (transferring propellant between two internal tanks) in their next Starship–SuperHeavy flight: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html This would be a demonstration of the kind of propellant transfer that would need to take place in orbit between vehicles as part of Starship's role in the upcoming Artemis missions to the moon. Will Starship–SuperHeavy successfully perform such a demonstration during the third Integrated Flight Test? Resolves YES on statements from SpaceX saying that this propellant transfer was attempted and was successful. Resolves NO if a propellant transfer demonstration is described by SpaceX as unsuccessful, or if IFT-3 comes to an end (successfully or otherwise, including vehicle destruction on the pad) without a propellant transfer taking place. Note specifically that if SpaceX launches the flight with no plans to do such a demonstration, this market still resolves NO, not N/A. If the third flight isn't called "IFT-3", that's fine, this question is about the third Starship–SuperHeavy orbital or near-orbital flight, and will not resolve until a third flight has completed or the vehicle for a third flight attempt has been destroyed in an attempt (including blowing up on the pad as part of a launch attempt).

N/A

EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1

PeAy9wpC36FqcHE9As0E

IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2

Manifold

Manifold

Will Morocco eliminate Portugal?

will-morocco-eliminate-portugal

https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-morocco-eliminate-portugal

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

YES = Morocco wins NO = Portugal wins Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round. See details and google's win probability here Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.

N/A

txv1dwpOFhQpPHZZiqLP

OlF7Kr25fPdQXlo5rf1QXs6qHVw1

AmygDala

Amyg Dala

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwGJ2SqoiPLfLQPdg3xYGHxCPzzR1BxcyS7WAKH=s96-c

Will the website chickenphoto.com have a photo of a chicken on it on June 25th?

will-the-website-chickenphotocom-ha

https://manifold.markets/AmygDala/will-the-website-chickenphotocom-ha

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This question resolves to "YES" if the website chickenphoto.com has a photo of a chicken on the main page at noon Eastern time on June 25th. This question resolves to "NO" if there is no photo of a chicken there at that time. Jun 9, 12:36am: The domain is not currently registered, so the chances are pretty significantly nonzero. However, I don't think the chances are awfully high, either. Close date updated to 2022-06-25 11:59 pm

N/A

XYalSo4qKSlntnAOwddk

HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3

JulianLees

Julian Lees

There will be more goals in the Japan/Sweden QF than the Netherlands/Spain QF

there-will-be-more-goals-in-the-jap

https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/there-will-be-more-goals-in-the-jap

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

In sunny New Zealand two quarterfinals are taking place today. The Netherlands were valiant in a 2-1 defeat in extra time by a strong Spanish team. Coming up is Sweden vs Japan, which game will score more goals on aggregate? Resolves YES if more goals are scored in the Sweden v Japan match than the 3 scored in the Netherlands v Spain match (note: goals must be scored in regular/stoppage or extra time, i.e. not penalties) Otherwise resolves NO

N/A

2hXsW8icDbOl6oYiPAKE

YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2

OllieG

Ollie G

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c

Will the US Supreme Court reverse the Colorado’s Supreme Court decision to bar Trump from the ballot?

will-the-us-supreme-court-reverse-t

https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-the-us-supreme-court-reverse-t

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

"Colorado’s top court ruled on Tuesday that former President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding office again because he engaged in insurrection with his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, an explosive ruling that is likely to put the basic contours of the 2024 election in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court." (source) "Mr. Trump’s campaign said immediately that it would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Colorado justices anticipated that likelihood by putting their ruling on hold at least until Jan. 4; if Mr. Trump appeals before then, the hold will continue until the Supreme Court rules." (source) Trump is currently disqualified from holding office by Colorado; AKA his name cannot appear on any Colorado state ballot (Republican primary, general election). Resolves YES if: the US Supreme Court justices take up the case and reverses Colorado's ruling Resolves NO if: the US Supreme Court justices do not agree to review the case or they review the case and uphold Colorado's ruling

N/A

YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2

t5kvD0XHXt0GOhQiydaz

wJBkejJnKPTJr1khb8wnFtCmNSA3

SnehadriDas

Snehadri Das

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgC5GON4wXYpddkvVHDK2aswyVDaL0JrATallXY5w=s96-c

Will Donald Trump be more than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden in the RealClearPolitics General Election polling average on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?

will-donald-trump-be-more-than-or-e

https://manifold.markets/SnehadriDas/will-donald-trump-be-more-than-or-e

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

This market resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is greater than or equal to 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics. This market resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is less than 6 points ahead of Joe Biden at the given time as per RealClearPolitics. The polling average can be found at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html

N/A

W1Q3WfCjcBUDX0lMYMEa

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

CamillePerrin

Camille

Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-19 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)

will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-4a07fb67202

https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-4a07fb67202

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.        Market close time: 2023-12-19 15:00 (UTC) Scheduled departure: 2023-12-19 - 17:00 (UTC)       09:00 (Los Angeles)       12:00 (New York)       18:00 (Paris) Scheduled duration: 01:20        Fine print: Resolution according to FlightStats Closes 2 hours before departure Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO. If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments        Useful links: Leaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24 BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines. Want to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right) Don't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic

N/A

YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2

1FECWT8aJt6Vbjqj9p3W

rPIxt0FOF6PWHTakglyn88p1dGY2

MattCWilson

Matt C. Wilson

My company, Olo, announced an 11% layoff this morning. Will our stock price close higher this evening?

my-company-olo-announced-an-11-layo

https://manifold.markets/MattCWilson/my-company-olo-announced-an-11-layo

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://www.olo.com/noah-glass-message-to-employees We opened at $7.39 this morning. Usually markets respond positively to this sort of thing, but as of right now we are down a penny. Manifold, help me in this trying time - give me a signal of what I might anticipate as far as your collective wisdom on my company's future? I wanted to make this a numeric market but that's not an option anymore, so - I will resolve YES if the closing price for OLO on June 14 is higher than $7.39, and NO if it is $7.39 or less.

N/A

Z8AVfaR3BvWUs3VUdAJt

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will DL flight 31 from London to Atlanta on 2023-10-13 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?

will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-82aebba4a9d2

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-82aebba4a9d2

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/zdbjapud

N/A

5aBqPaM11TS3NllBPrFl

Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2

pakoito

Pacc

Will Manifold Markets make the portfolio colorblind-friendly by the end of January 2023?

will-manifold-markets-make-the-port

https://manifold.markets/pakoito/will-manifold-markets-make-the-port

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

The portfolio page has colors for investments that are YES (green) or NO (red). As a red-weak colorblind person, it took me a while to realise those were color-coded. The market resolves to NO if, by the end of January 2023, https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/issues/1209 is rejected or not Closed with a fix.

N/A

b4C87tVLL1HuXc68d8Bn

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will FR flight 2042 from Brussels to Pula on 2023-09-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-fr-flight-2042-from-brussels-t

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-2042-from-brussels-t

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/44vsmdad

N/A

PNOJshNZAu4iWPAn1ARg

rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2

Orimos

Christian

Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher november 17th than the close of november 16th? (Daily Market)

will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-b2c3cc54a1c1

https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-b2c3cc54a1c1

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ. Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ. Previous close: [image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day. Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed. If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

XfkMk1G1H4aFVXfB685w

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

KeenenW

Keenen W

🏒Will the Seattle Kraken beat New Jersey Devils on Feb 12?

will-the-seattle-kraken-beat-new-je

https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-seattle-kraken-beat-new-je

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Seattle Kraken vs New Jersey Devils @6pm CST Resolves YES or NO . Resolves Yes if Seattle Kraken win. Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws

N/A

X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1

0w56IyE5FGnzdn810ouC

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

DanMan314

Dan

Will Manifold have a day below 1400 engaged users in the remainder of 2023?

will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1400

https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1400

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

https://manifold.markets/stats An engaged user is a user who has traded in, commented on, or created a question on at least 2 out of 7 days in each of the past 3 weeks. As of market creation. Other markets: @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1300-ac127984e01a Will Manifold have a day below 1200 engaged users in the remainder of 2023? @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1100 @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-1000 @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-900 @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-800 @/DanMan314/will-manifold-have-a-day-below-700

N/A

cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1

zpO777BQ7sgXrpiVgcy9

9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2

dglid

David Glidden

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c

Will the pandemic still be "a big deal" by the time of Star Spangled Gamblers' 2023 Golden Modelo awards?

will-the-pandemic-still-be-a-big-de

https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-the-pandemic-still-be-a-big-de

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

At minute 1:09:05 of the April 5th, 2022 episode of Star Spangled Gamblers (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/welcome-to-alabama-where-people-dont-care-about-trump/id1437934639?i=1000556265085), host @keendawg asks guest @jipkin whether the pandemic will still be "a big deal" by the time the Star Spangled Gamblers have their 2023 Golden Modelo political gambling awards ceremony. @jipkin suggests a 15-20% chance of the pandemic still being a big deal around that time. This market will resolve YES if, at the time of the release of the 2023 SSG Golden Modelo podcast episode (expected sometime in February or March 2023), the latest Google Trends score of the term "pandemic" is less than 5 (the current score as of this market's creation in April 2023): https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=pandemic This market will resolve NO if the Google Trend score is 5 or higher. The above criteria will apply even if the driving force behind a score >5 is due to a non-Covid-19 pandemic. If the 2023 Golden Modelo awards are not held or otherwise delayed beyond March 31st, 2023, this market will resolve upon close based on the Google Trends value for March 2023.

N/A

enF9e97GMciph4dgwe9Z

Ih145JFNaFRjT6hP3tS6yCrYV453

mdolr

mdolr

Will my profile show a profit (of Ṁ Mana) by September 15th 2023 ?

will-my-profile-show-a-profit-of-m

https://manifold.markets/mdolr/will-my-profile-show-a-profit-of-m

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Without buying Mana Ṁ, will my Manifold.markets profile show a profit by Sept. 15, 2023 at 23:59 GMT+1 Will resolve to: - "YES" if the profile shows a profit - "NO" if the profile doesn't show a profit or is break-even Trying to see if I can make some kind of ETF / leveraged product 😄

N/A

NnBVlaBYUMQfbLAxQyKx

B1Xm7PVvfCZrb1uElh1KQHSIXZl1

RohanPandey

Rohan Pandey

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfgkilUoWx6XX8dyuQPVsHd9hG5FMYIbYzyFypika2YoCM=s96-c

Will Elon Musk put "e/acc" in his handle or bio before Dec 31, 2023?

will-elon-musk-put-eacc-in-his-hand

https://manifold.markets/RohanPandey/will-elon-musk-put-eacc-in-his-hand

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Yes if Elon Musk publicly identifies as an effective accelerationist at any point in the year 2023 by putting "e/acc" or "effective accelerationist" in his handle or bio on Twitter/X. No otherwise.

N/A

zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1

d9TlxaLvHbxvqZv9eV0d

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will BA flight 293 from London to Dulles on 2023-10-20 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?

will-ba-flight-293-from-london-to-d

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-293-from-london-to-d

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/5yyvwp2j

N/A

HgiCzuk6BJXZYtHStHGz

OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

SirCryptomind

SirCryptomind

Will the S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) close higher on October 20th than it closed on October 13th? [Ṁana Leaderboard]

will-the-sp-500-indexsp-inx-close-h-fdb6217e88c9

https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-sp-500-indexsp-inx-close-h-fdb6217e88c9

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

S&P 500 closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) Predictions close at 3pm ET (7pm UTC) Previous Close On 10/13/2023: [image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day. Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day) If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded) I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

N/A

BAJZBfxQ5n5fioSksk0A

4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3

Tripping

Tripping

Will Demetrious Johnson beat Adriano Moraes in their third fight?

will-demetrious-johnson-beat-adrian

https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-demetrious-johnson-beat-adrian

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Demetrious Johnson and Adriano Moraes are scheduled to fight on May 5th at a ONE Fight Night event in Broomfield, Colorado. This will be their third mma fight. If Demetrious Johnson wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Adriano Moraes wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.

N/A

TXcYgVmwM6cBpxo0skuF

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

PlasmaBallin

Plasma Ballin'

Can Manifold beat the computer at Chomp?

can-manifold-beat-the-computer-at-c

https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/can-manifold-beat-the-computer-at-c

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Chomp is a game where two players attempt to eat peices of a chocolate bar without being the one to eat the "poison square". The rules are as follows: We start with a rectangular grid, and players alternate turns. On each turn, a player chooses on tile on the grid and removes all tiles that are at least as high and at least as far right as it. You can only choose tiles that haven't been removed yet. The player that has to pick the last tile (the bottom-left tile) loses. An example game is here: Player 1 removes chooses (5,3) on the first turn. Then Player 2 chooses (2,4), Player 1 chooses (2,1), and Player 2 chooses (1,2), winning the game. [image]I found a place where I can play a game of 4x7 Chomp against a computer and input a starting sequence of moves so that I can effectively save a game. I will have Manifold play as Player 1 and the computer as Player 2. This means that Manifold can win if they play right, since Player 1 always has the winning strategy in Chomp (except on a 1x1 board). The moves will be chosen as follows: I'll create free-response markets asking which tile Manifold should choose for the next move, and the top three options at close will be the contenders. I'll then create three conditional markets asking whether Manifold will win, given that each move is chosen, and choose the move with the highest average probability (i.e., the one that Manifold thinks is best). I'll then see how the computer responds to that move and continue until the game has ended.

N/A

eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2

gkGfq9AOQtw4C1uqUMfC

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

AmmonLam

Ammon Lam

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c

Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 28, 2024 be higher than the previous day?

will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-292ea64ac1e4

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-292ea64ac1e4

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 28, 2024 is higher than the previous day Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.

N/A

hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2

UGmK1arlyUf9nzFpTGP4

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

Will "Challengers" (2024) have >94% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?

will-challengers-2024-have-94-criti

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-challengers-2024-have-94-criti

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

"Challengers" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023 I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 10th (two weeks after release). Details: I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). Example: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier "Call Me By Your Name" is 94%. Note that the first batch of reviews have already been released—this market is checking how far (if at all) the score will drop as the movie releases. "Challengers" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ)

N/A

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

FQImtObvG2L7uFopYRR0

j3IdtAQ2CqW0NMOsaZMVgq9m0Y43

dmayhem93

dmayhem93

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDakotaMahan%2FxYKP5ZDcea.11?alt=media&token=8852b3f0-3b6e-46e6-8c5c-dfda0b75184e

Will Biden mention GPT/LLMs/Foundation Models during his State of The Union on 02/07/2023

will-biden-mention-gptllmsfoundatio

https://manifold.markets/dmayhem93/will-biden-mention-gptllmsfoundatio

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Specific model names are fine too (Claude, ChatGPT, etc).

N/A

kVbJPlt8Idvx46jRiqy8

O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72

AjayChabra

Ajay

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c

Will the NFL flex out the Week 12 Monday Night (11/27/23) game of Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings?

will-the-nfl-flex-out-the-week-12-m

https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/will-the-nfl-flex-out-the-week-12-m

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

For the first time this season, the NFL could flex out Monday night games. This game (Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings) would be a good candidate for them to choose. According to https://www.nfl.com/schedules/flexible-scheduling-procedures Monday night games between weeks 12-17 may be flexed, and the deadline to announce is 12 days before the game, which is Wednesday, Nov 15. Question resolves if announcement is made or after deadline passes.

N/A

0Hqm34EdbgnBvooLTzMF

Wtm4araEqIf71bumwK7NgJZo8kv1

clearthinkbot

Clearer Thinking Regrants

https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FClearerThinkingRegrants%2FCcKSKVMp45.52?alt=media&token=a2014958-b857-46d5-8967-2d10a72f302d

Will we fund the "Stanford Biosecurity Center"?

will-we-fund-the-stanford-biosecuri

https://manifold.markets/clearthinkbot/will-we-fund-the-stanford-biosecuri

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

[image]Will the project "Stanford Biosecurity Center" receive any funding from the Clearer Thinking Regranting program run by ClearerThinking.org? Remember, betting in this market is not the only way you can have a shot at winning part of the $13,000 in cash prizes! As explained here, you can also win money by sharing information or arguments that change our mind about which projects to fund or how much to fund them. If you have an argument or public information for or against this project, share it as a comment below. If you have private information or information that has the potential to harm anyone, please send it to [email protected] instead. Below, you can find some selected quotes from the public copy of the application. The text beneath each heading was written by the applicant. Alternatively, you can click here to see the entire public portion of their application. In brief, why does the applicant think we should we fund this project? Biosecurity Legislative Boot Camp: Congressional funding and support for pandemic preparedness, biodefense, and biosecurity monitoring falls short of addressing the scope of the threat and of fully utilizing available technology and capabilities (e.g., vaccine production; BARDA; wastewater pathogen sampling). Bringing these issues to the attention of policymakers and those who directly advise them could result in increased attention, and ultimately better-informed, faster, and concerted legislative action. The boot camp format has previously been used to increase awareness of policy solutions to cybersecurity problems and to build a network among congressional staffers and research-affiliated experts; this network has resulted in ongoing consultative opportunities and participants’ involvement in crafting cybersecurity policy, which I expect would translate to the domain of biosecurity with the involvement of appropriate personnel and experts in a similarly formatted program.    Dual-Use Capabilities of Protein Folding Tools: Recent advancements in AI- and ML-enabled molecular modeling and simulation have led to breakthroughs in the ability to predict protein folding and bound structures of multiple proteins (e.g., ligand-receptor docking and antibody binding). While some work has been done on the potential applications of these capabilities to chemical design, and the dual-use nature of this work, very little has been done thus far to explore the current and near-term capabilities of protein-folding simulation tools to enable the directed design of pathogens. It is important to know the capabilities of these tools to design mechanisms of safety and review for their use, and to predict potential misuse for the purpose of planning for or mitigating the results of that misuse. Here's the mechanism by which the applicant expects their project will achieve positive outcomes. Bootcamp: As with previous bootcamps, I expect that sustained and intensive engagement with these issues and a small community of both fellow staffers and experts will do two things: heighten the saliency of these topics and issues for the staffers, and create informal networking relationships and bonds between participants (both among staffers, and between staffers and experts) that lead to consultation and collaboration in the near future. The small, informal, and off-the-record nature of the bootcamps tends to build camaraderie better than a formal public conference, and staffers feel important for having been purposely selected to attend, causing them to view their fellow attendees as being similarly important, and therefore worthy of working with in the future.  Research: Publication and dissemination of research about dual-use capabilities tends to attract the attention of regulators and researchers (see, e.g., the attention paid to Filippa Lentzos et al.’s recent publication on dual-use AI-enabled drug discovery - https://www.nature.com/articles/s42256-022-00465-9). Presentations and talks to relevant groups (nonproliferation groups, university departments and programs, State Department CTR) are also good mechanisms for propagating this type of work and spurring the development of regulatory guidelines, but the research and computational work has to be done first to demonstrate the reality of the threat. How much funding are they requesting? Bootcamp: $130,225 Research: $6,000/month stipend for 12 months - $72,000.  Total: $130,225 + $72,000 + 8% overhead: $218,403 Overview bootcamp budget: Flights, transportation to/from campus, and accommodations for ~30 staffers Assuming 30 participants, $58,500 total Room reservations, event services, waste management $5,500 total Breakfast (2x), Lunch (3x), and Dinner (2x) catering Assuming 30 participants, $10,575 total Staff time (facilitator/organizer, logistics coordinator) Assume 80 hours each for prep for logistics and organizer 12 hours per day for three days each for the event 10 hours each for post-event work (reimbursements, communication) Assume $75/hour, four staff, $32,400 Stipends for travel and time for visiting speakers $18,500 total Printed materials $2,250 total Field trip (if possible) $2,500 total Here you can review the entire public portion of the application (which contains a lot more information about the applicant and their project): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Eh4C5ThTWTR0JP-oUXkWbFrmjo9h3XP4DnXQODP8pso/edit Sep 20, 3:45pm: Close date updated to 2022-10-01 2:59 am

N/A

qBla4XLEYFYd2DDeeWQc

Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

Ziddletwix

Ziddletwix

Will "Dune: Part Two" have worldwide gross more than 4X greater than that of "Madame Web" (2 months after release)

will-dune-part-two-have-worldwide-g

https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-dune-part-two-have-worldwide-g

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

BoxOfficeMojo is the data source: Madame Web: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1379697409/ Dune: Part Two: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/ I will use the number listed as "WORLDWIDE" (under "GROSSES") for both. I will check BoxOfficeMojo two months after the release of "Dune: Part Two", i.e. May 1st, and use the listed gross for both movies as of that date. [1] For example, Morbius (currently) lists a worldwide (WW) gross of $167,635,712. If you multiply that by 4, you get $670.5M. This would count as larger than the WW gross of Dune (2020) ($402,027,830), but less than the WW gross of Oppenheimer ($956,203,295). If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask and I will clarify. [1]. Note that this may not fully include all gross that occurs before May 1st (as BoxOfficeMojo may not have updated much). I doubt that this will change the result, but I like to set a concrete end date for my box office markets so they don't drag on beyond the point of being interesting. Keep that in mind.

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Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1

eGf5aDtp3sJApFiMnj31

BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2

Haws

Haws

[Daily] Will NVDA close higher on December 21 than it closed on December 20?

daily-will-nvda-close-higher-on-dec-403fb609399b

https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-nvda-close-higher-on-dec-403fb609399b

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS

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OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2

yhXzRpyllINGf1KY5tTW

4CCufgXTiCVym9SPfy4M8dNff4R2

AdrianMeier

Adrian Meier

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5H8sb7IbsKOw-sMs4MRgwd6zYpuuSY6hz70dWf=s96-c

Will Way of Water be Best Picture in 2023 ?

will-way-of-water-be-best-picture-i

https://manifold.markets/AdrianMeier/will-way-of-water-be-best-picture-i

BINARY

cpmm-1

NO

Way of Water has inspired millions across the world with its magnificient CGI, but will it also convince the hearts of the comittee ?

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SMr3NLoTLbOLEydVJjKN

8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1

wingman_web3

Wingman

Will BT flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-09-28 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?

will-bt-flight-1111-from-munich-to-71f546e6fda9

https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-bt-flight-1111-from-munich-to-71f546e6fda9

BINARY

cpmm-1

YES

Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/3v3n59uw

N/A

dHpODqv1GXLxQF7yV8QP

S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2

jonjordanc3f0

jon jordan

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c

Will Vladimir Putin win the 2024 Russian presidental elections with more than 78% of the vote?