new

Get trending papers in your email inbox!

Subscribe

byAK and the research community

Mar 12

Cybloids $-$ Creation and Control of Cybernetic Colloids

Colloids play an important role in fundamental science as well as in nature and technology. They have had a strong impact on the fundamental understanding of statistical physics. For example, colloids have helped to obtain a better understanding of collective phenomena, ranging from phase transitions and glass formation to the swarming of active Brownian particles. Yet the success of colloidal systems hinges crucially on the specific physical and chemical properties of the colloidal particles, i.e. particles with the appropriate characteristics must be available. Here we present an idea to create particles with freely selectable properties. The properties might depend, for example, on the presence of other particles (hence mimicking specific pair or many-body interactions), previous configurations (hence introducing some memory or feedback), or a directional bias (hence changing the dynamics). Without directly interfering with the sample, each particle is fully controlled and can receive external commands through a predefined algorithm that can take into account any input parameters. This is realized with computer-controlled colloids, which we term cybloids - short for cybernetic colloids. The potential of cybloids is illustrated by programming a time-delayed external potential acting on a single colloid and interaction potentials for many colloids. Both an attractive harmonic potential and an annular potential are implemented. For a single particle, this programming can cause subdiffusive behavior or lend activity. For many colloids, the programmed interaction potential allows to select a crystal structure at wish. Beyond these examples, we discuss further opportunities which cybloids offer.

On the Road to Clarity: Exploring Explainable AI for World Models in a Driver Assistance System

In Autonomous Driving (AD) transparency and safety are paramount, as mistakes are costly. However, neural networks used in AD systems are generally considered black boxes. As a countermeasure, we have methods of explainable AI (XAI), such as feature relevance estimation and dimensionality reduction. Coarse graining techniques can also help reduce dimensionality and find interpretable global patterns. A specific coarse graining method is Renormalization Groups from statistical physics. It has previously been applied to Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) to interpret unsupervised learning. We refine this technique by building a transparent backbone model for convolutional variational autoencoders (VAE) that allows mapping latent values to input features and has performance comparable to trained black box VAEs. Moreover, we propose a custom feature map visualization technique to analyze the internal convolutional layers in the VAE to explain internal causes of poor reconstruction that may lead to dangerous traffic scenarios in AD applications. In a second key contribution, we propose explanation and evaluation techniques for the internal dynamics and feature relevance of prediction networks. We test a long short-term memory (LSTM) network in the computer vision domain to evaluate the predictability and in future applications potentially safety of prediction models. We showcase our methods by analyzing a VAE-LSTM world model that predicts pedestrian perception in an urban traffic situation.

Nonequilibrium Phenomena in Driven and Active Coulomb Field Theories

The classical Coulomb gas model has served as one of the most versatile frameworks in statistical physics, connecting a vast range of phenomena across many different areas. Nonequilibrium generalisations of this model have so far been studied much more scarcely. With the abundance of contemporary research into active and driven systems, one would naturally expect that such generalisations of systems with long-ranged Coulomb-like interactions will form a fertile playground for interesting developments. Here, we present two examples of novel macroscopic behaviour that arise from nonequilibrium fluctuations in long-range interacting systems, namely (1) unscreened long-ranged correlations in strong electrolytes driven by an external electric field and the associated fluctuation-induced forces in the confined Casimir geometry, and (2) out-of-equilibrium critical behaviour in self-chemotactic models that incorporate the particle polarity in the chemotactic response of the cells. Both of these systems have nonlocal Coulomb-like interactions among their constituent particles, namely, the electrostatic interactions in the case of the driven electrolyte, and the chemotactic forces mediated by fast-diffusing signals in the case of self-chemotactic systems. The results presented here hint to the rich phenomenology of nonequilibrium effects that can arise from strong fluctuations in Coulomb interacting systems, and a rich variety of potential future directions, which are discussed.

Statistical mechanics of continual learning: variational principle and mean-field potential

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

Physics-based Noise Modeling for Extreme Low-light Photography

Enhancing the visibility in extreme low-light environments is a challenging task. Under nearly lightless condition, existing image denoising methods could easily break down due to significantly low SNR. In this paper, we systematically study the noise statistics in the imaging pipeline of CMOS photosensors, and formulate a comprehensive noise model that can accurately characterize the real noise structures. Our novel model considers the noise sources caused by digital camera electronics which are largely overlooked by existing methods yet have significant influence on raw measurement in the dark. It provides a way to decouple the intricate noise structure into different statistical distributions with physical interpretations. Moreover, our noise model can be used to synthesize realistic training data for learning-based low-light denoising algorithms. In this regard, although promising results have been shown recently with deep convolutional neural networks, the success heavily depends on abundant noisy clean image pairs for training, which are tremendously difficult to obtain in practice. Generalizing their trained models to images from new devices is also problematic. Extensive experiments on multiple low-light denoising datasets -- including a newly collected one in this work covering various devices -- show that a deep neural network trained with our proposed noise formation model can reach surprisingly-high accuracy. The results are on par with or sometimes even outperform training with paired real data, opening a new door to real-world extreme low-light photography.

Model scale versus domain knowledge in statistical forecasting of chaotic systems

Chaos and unpredictability are traditionally synonymous, yet large-scale machine learning methods recently have demonstrated a surprising ability to forecast chaotic systems well beyond typical predictability horizons. However, recent works disagree on whether specialized methods grounded in dynamical systems theory, such as reservoir computers or neural ordinary differential equations, outperform general-purpose large-scale learning methods such as transformers or recurrent neural networks. These prior studies perform comparisons on few individually-chosen chaotic systems, thereby precluding robust quantification of how statistical modeling choices and dynamical invariants of different chaotic systems jointly determine empirical predictability. Here, we perform the largest to-date comparative study of forecasting methods on the classical problem of forecasting chaos: we benchmark 24 state-of-the-art forecasting methods on a crowdsourced database of 135 low-dimensional systems with 17 forecast metrics. We find that large-scale, domain-agnostic forecasting methods consistently produce predictions that remain accurate up to two dozen Lyapunov times, thereby accessing a new long-horizon forecasting regime well beyond classical methods. We find that, in this regime, accuracy decorrelates with classical invariant measures of predictability like the Lyapunov exponent. However, in data-limited settings outside the long-horizon regime, we find that physics-based hybrid methods retain a comparative advantage due to their strong inductive biases.

Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.

Deep learning probability flows and entropy production rates in active matter

Active matter systems, from self-propelled colloids to motile bacteria, are characterized by the conversion of free energy into useful work at the microscopic scale. These systems generically involve physics beyond the reach of equilibrium statistical mechanics, and a persistent challenge has been to understand the nature of their nonequilibrium states. The entropy production rate and the magnitude of the steady-state probability current provide quantitative ways to do so by measuring the breakdown of time-reversal symmetry and the strength of nonequilibrium transport of measure. Yet, their efficient computation has remained elusive, as they depend on the system's unknown and high-dimensional probability density. Here, building upon recent advances in generative modeling, we develop a deep learning framework that estimates the score of this density. We show that the score, together with the microscopic equations of motion, gives direct access to the entropy production rate, the probability current, and their decomposition into local contributions from individual particles, spatial regions, and degrees of freedom. To represent the score, we introduce a novel, spatially-local transformer-based network architecture that learns high-order interactions between particles while respecting their underlying permutation symmetry. We demonstrate the broad utility and scalability of the method by applying it to several high-dimensional systems of interacting active particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation (MIPS). We show that a single instance of our network trained on a system of 4096 particles at one packing fraction can generalize to other regions of the phase diagram, including systems with as many as 32768 particles. We use this observation to quantify the spatial structure of the departure from equilibrium in MIPS as a function of the number of particles and the packing fraction.

Understanding the Neutron Star Population with the SKA

Since their discovery in the late 1960's the population of known neutron stars (NSs) has grown to ~2500. The last five decades of observations have yielded many surprises and demonstrated that the observational properties of NSs are remarkably diverse. The surveys that will be performed with SKA (the Square Kilometre Array) will produce a further tenfold increase in the number of Galactic NSs known. Moreover, the SKA's broad spectral coverage, sub-arraying and multi-beaming capabilities will allow us to characterise these sources with unprecedented efficiency, in turn enabling a giant leap in the understanding of their properties. Here we review the NS population and outline our strategies for studying each of the growing number of diverse classes that are populating the "NS zoo". Some of the main scientific questions that will be addressed by the much larger statistical samples and vastly improved timing efficiency provided by SKA include: (i) the spin period and spin-down rate distributions (and thus magnetic fields) at birth, and the associated information about the SNe wherein they are formed; (ii) the radio pulsar-magnetar connection; (iii) the link between normal radio pulsars, intermittent pulsars and rotating radio transients; (iv) the slowest possible spin period for a radio pulsar (revealing the conditions at the pulsar death-line); (v) proper motions of pulsars (revealing SN kick physics); (vi) the mass distribution of NSs (vii) the fastest possible spin period for a recycled pulsar (constraining magnetosphere-accretion disc interactions, gravitational wave radiation and the equation-of-state); (viii) the origin of high eccentricity millisecond pulsars (MSPs); (ix) the formation channels for recently identified triple systems; and finally (x) how isolated MSPs are formed. We expect that the SKA will break new ground unveiling exotic systems that will challenge... [abridged]

Parallel Learning by Multitasking Neural Networks

A modern challenge of Artificial Intelligence is learning multiple patterns at once (i.e.parallel learning). While this can not be accomplished by standard Hebbian associative neural networks, in this paper we show how the Multitasking Hebbian Network (a variation on theme of the Hopfield model working on sparse data-sets) is naturally able to perform this complex task. We focus on systems processing in parallel a finite (up to logarithmic growth in the size of the network) amount of patterns, mirroring the low-storage level of standard associative neural networks at work with pattern recognition. For mild dilution in the patterns, the network handles them hierarchically, distributing the amplitudes of their signals as power-laws w.r.t. their information content (hierarchical regime), while, for strong dilution, all the signals pertaining to all the patterns are raised with the same strength (parallel regime). Further, confined to the low-storage setting (i.e., far from the spin glass limit), the presence of a teacher neither alters the multitasking performances nor changes the thresholds for learning: the latter are the same whatever the training protocol is supervised or unsupervised. Results obtained through statistical mechanics, signal-to-noise technique and Monte Carlo simulations are overall in perfect agreement and carry interesting insights on multiple learning at once: for instance, whenever the cost-function of the model is minimized in parallel on several patterns (in its description via Statistical Mechanics), the same happens to the standard sum-squared error Loss function (typically used in Machine Learning).

The probabilistic world

Physics is based on probabilities as fundamental entities of a mathematical description. Expectation values of observables are computed according to the classical statistical rule. The overall probability distribution for one world covers all times. The quantum formalism arises once one focuses on the evolution of the time-local probabilistic information. Wave functions or the density matrix allow the formulation of a general linear evolution law for classical statistics. The quantum formalism for classical statistics is a powerful tool which allows us to implement for generalized Ising models the momentum observable with the associated Fourier representation. The association of operators to observables permits the computation of expectation values in terms of the density matrix by the usual quantum rule. We show that probabilistic cellular automata are quantum systems in a formulation with discrete time steps and real wave functions. With a complex structure the evolution operator for automata can be expressed in terms of a Hamiltonian involving fermionic creation and annihilation operators. The time-local probabilistic information amounts to a subsystem of the overall probabilistic system which is correlated with its environment consisting of the past and future. Such subsystems typically involve probabilistic observables for which only a probability distribution for their possible measurement values is available. Incomplete statistics does not permit to compute classical correlation functions for arbitrary subsystem-observables. Bell's inequalities are not generally applicable.

Replica symmetry breaking in dense neural networks

Understanding the glassy nature of neural networks is pivotal both for theoretical and computational advances in Machine Learning and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence. Keeping the focus on dense associative Hebbian neural networks, the purpose of this paper is two-fold: at first we develop rigorous mathematical approaches to address properly a statistical mechanical picture of the phenomenon of {\em replica symmetry breaking} (RSB) in these networks, then -- deepening results stemmed via these routes -- we aim to inspect the {\em glassiness} that they hide. In particular, regarding the methodology, we provide two techniques: the former is an adaptation of the transport PDE to the case, while the latter is an extension of Guerra's interpolation breakthrough. Beyond coherence among the results, either in replica symmetric and in the one-step replica symmetry breaking level of description, we prove the Gardner's picture and we identify the maximal storage capacity by a ground-state analysis in the Baldi-Venkatesh high-storage regime. In the second part of the paper we investigate the glassy structure of these networks: in contrast with the replica symmetric scenario (RS), RSB actually stabilizes the spin-glass phase. We report huge differences w.r.t. the standard pairwise Hopfield limit: in particular, it is known that it is possible to express the free energy of the Hopfield neural network as a linear combination of the free energies of an hard spin glass (i.e. the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model) and a soft spin glass (the Gaussian or "spherical" model). This is no longer true when interactions are more than pairwise (whatever the level of description, RS or RSB): for dense networks solely the free energy of the hard spin glass survives, proving a huge diversity in the underlying glassiness of associative neural networks.

Chaos as an interpretable benchmark for forecasting and data-driven modelling

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Procedural Generation of Grain Orientations using the Wave Function Collapse Algorithm

Statistics of grain sizes and orientations in metals correlate to the material's mechanical properties. Reproducing representative volume elements for further analysis of deformation and failure in metals, like 316L stainless steel, is particularly important due to their wide use in manufacturing goods today. Two approaches, initially created for video games, were considered for the procedural generation of representative grain microstructures. The first is the Wave Function Collapse (WFC) algorithm, and the second is constraint propagation and probabilistic inference through Markov Junior, a free and open-source software. This study aimed to investigate these two algorithms' effectiveness in using reference electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) maps and recreating a statistically similar one that could be used in further research. It utilized two stainless steel EBSD maps as references to test both algorithms. First, the WFC algorithm was too constricting and, thus, incapable of producing images that resembled EBSDs. The second, MarkovJunior, was much more effective in creating a Voronoi tessellation that could be used to create an EBSD map in Python. When comparing the results between the reference and the generated EBSD, we discovered that the orientation and volume fractions were extremely similar. With the study, it was concluded that MarkovJunior is an effective machine learning tool that can reproduce representative grain microstructures.

Simulating 2+1D Lattice Quantum Electrodynamics at Finite Density with Neural Flow Wavefunctions

We present a neural flow wavefunction, Gauge-Fermion FlowNet, and use it to simulate 2+1D lattice compact quantum electrodynamics with finite density dynamical fermions. The gauge field is represented by a neural network which parameterizes a discretized flow-based transformation of the amplitude while the fermionic sign structure is represented by a neural net backflow. This approach directly represents the U(1) degree of freedom without any truncation, obeys Guass's law by construction, samples autoregressively avoiding any equilibration time, and variationally simulates Gauge-Fermion systems with sign problems accurately. In this model, we investigate confinement and string breaking phenomena in different fermion density and hopping regimes. We study the phase transition from the charge crystal phase to the vacuum phase at zero density, and observe the phase seperation and the net charge penetration blocking effect under magnetic interaction at finite density. In addition, we investigate a magnetic phase transition due to the competition effect between the kinetic energy of fermions and the magnetic energy of the gauge field. With our method, we further note potential differences on the order of the phase transitions between a continuous U(1) system and one with finite truncation. Our state-of-the-art neural network approach opens up new possibilities to study different gauge theories coupled to dynamical matter in higher dimensions.

Detecting Fermi Surface Nesting Effect for Fermionic Dicke Transition by Trap Induced Localization

Recently, the statistical effect of fermionic superradiance is approved by series of experiments both in free space and in a cavity. The Pauli blocking effect can be visualized by a 1/2 scaling of Dicke transition critical pumping strength against particle number Nat for fermions in a trap. However, the Fermi surface nesting effect, which manifests the enhancement of superradiance by Fermi statistics is still very hard to be identified. Here we studied the influence of localized fermions on the trap edge when both pumping optical lattice and the trap are presented. We find due to localization, the statistical effect in superradiant transition is enhanced. Two new scalings of critical pumping strength are observed as 4/3, and 2/3 for mediate particle number, and the Pauli blocking scaling 1/3 (2d case) in large particle number limit is unaffected. Further, we find the 4/3 scaling is subject to a power law increasing with rising ratio between recoil energy and trap frequency in pumping laser direction. The divergence of this scaling of critical pumping strength against N_{rm at} in E_R/omega_xrightarrow+infty limit can be identified as the Fermi surface nesting effect. Thus we find a practical experimental scheme for visualizing the long-desired Fermi surface nesting effect with the help of trap induced localization in a two-dimensional Fermi gas in a cavity.

Ergotropy and Capacity Optimization in Heisenberg Spin Chain Quantum Batteries

This study examines the performance of finite spin quantum batteries (QBs) using Heisenberg spin models with Dzyaloshinsky-Moriya (DM) and Kaplan--Shekhtman--Entin-Wohlman--Aharony (KSEA) interactions. The QBs are modeled as interacting quantum spins in local inhomogeneous magnetic fields, inducing variable Zeeman splitting. We derive analytical expressions for the maximal extractable work, ergotropy and the capacity of QBs, as recently examined by Yang et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 030402 (2023)]. These quantities are analytically linked through certain quantum correlations, as posited in the aforementioned study. Different Heisenberg spin chain models exhibit distinct behaviors under varying conditions, emphasizing the importance of model selection for optimizing QB performance. In antiferromagnetic (AFM) systems, maximum ergotropy occurs with a Zeeman splitting field applied to either spin, while ferromagnetic (FM) systems benefit from a uniform Zeeman field. Temperature significantly impacts QB performance, with ergotropy in the AFM case being generally more robust against temperature increases compared to the FM case. Incorporating DM and KSEA couplings can significantly enhance the capacity and ergotropy extraction of QBs. However, there exists a threshold beyond which additional increases in these interactions cause a sharp decline in capacity and ergotropy. This behavior is influenced by temperature and quantum coherence, which signal the occurrence of a sudden phase transition. The resource theory of quantum coherence proposed by Baumgratz et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 140401 (2014)] plays a crucial role in enhancing ergotropy and capacity. However, ergotropy is limited by both the system's capacity and the amount of coherence. These findings support the theoretical framework of spin-based QBs and may benefit future research on quantum energy storage devices.

Light Schrödinger Bridge

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

The Slepian model based independent interval approximation of persistency and zero-level exceedance distributions

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

Kernel Density Estimators in Large Dimensions

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Addressing the core-cusp and diversity problem of dwarf and disk galaxies using cold collisionless DARKexp theory

Observed dwarf galaxies tend to have linearly rising rotation curves, which indicate flat density cores in their centers. Furthermore, disk galaxies show a wide range of rotation curves shapes. High resolution simulations of cold collisionless dark matter do not reproduce flat central profiles, or the observed diversity of rotation curve shapes; even hydrodynamic simulations incorporating baryonic feedback cannot do that robustly. However, numerical simulations are not the only way to make predictions about density profiles of equilibrium dark matter halos. A theoretical model based on statistical mechanics shows that maximum entropy solutions for cold collisionless self-gravitating dark matter halos can have a range of inner density profiles, including flat density cores. These theoretical profiles, called DARKexp, have only one shape parameter, and are able to fit the observed rotation curves of galaxies with last measured velocities in the range ~20-200 km/s. Here we present fits to 96 SPARC catalog galaxies, and the Milky Way. DARKexp also provides good fits to the projected stellar density distributions of ultrafaint dwarfs that show cores, suggesting that the dark matter halo hosts could have flat density cores. Thus, DARKexp appears to be able to address the core-cusp problem and the diversity of rotation curves with cold collisionless dark matter alone, without baryonic feedback.

Probabilistic Partitive Partitioning (PPP)

Clustering is a NP-hard problem. Thus, no optimal algorithm exists, heuristics are applied to cluster the data. Heuristics can be very resource-intensive, if not applied properly. For substantially large data sets computational efficiencies can be achieved by reducing the input space if a minimal loss of information can be achieved. Clustering algorithms, in general, face two common problems: 1) these converge to different settings with different initial conditions and; 2) the number of clusters has to be arbitrarily decided beforehand. This problem has become critical in the realm of big data. Recently, clustering algorithms have emerged which can speedup computations using parallel processing over the grid but face the aforementioned problems. Goals: Our goals are to find methods to cluster data which: 1) guarantee convergence to the same settings irrespective of the initial conditions; 2) eliminate the need to establish the number of clusters beforehand, and 3) can be applied to cluster large datasets. Methods: We introduce a method that combines probabilistic and combinatorial clustering methods to produce repeatable and compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method harnesses the power of k-means (a combinatorial clustering method) to cluster/partition very large dimensional datasets and uses the Gaussian Mixture Model (a probabilistic clustering method) to validate the k-means partitions. Results: We show that this method produces very compact clusters that are not sensitive to initial conditions. This method can be used to identify the most 'separable' set in a dataset which increases the 'clusterability' of a dataset. This method also eliminates the need to specify the number of clusters in advance.

Persistent homology of the cosmic web. I: Hierarchical topology in ΛCDM cosmologies

Using a set of LambdaCDM simulations of cosmic structure formation, we study the evolving connectivity and changing topological structure of the cosmic web using state-of-the-art tools of multiscale topological data analysis (TDA). We follow the development of the cosmic web topology in terms of the evolution of Betti number curves and feature persistence diagrams of the three (topological) classes of structural features: matter concentrations, filaments and tunnels, and voids. The Betti curves specify the prominence of features as a function of density level, and their evolution with cosmic epoch reflects the changing network connections between these structural features. The persistence diagrams quantify the longevity and stability of topological features. In this study we establish, for the first time, the link between persistence diagrams, the features they show, and the gravitationally driven cosmic structure formation process. By following the diagrams' development over cosmic time, the link between the multiscale topology of the cosmic web and the hierarchical buildup of cosmic structure is established. The sharp apexes in the diagrams are intimately related to key transitions in the structure formation process. The apex in the matter concentration diagrams coincides with the density level at which, typically, they detach from the Hubble expansion and begin to collapse. At that level many individual islands merge to form the network of the cosmic web and a large number of filaments and tunnels emerge to establish its connecting bridges. The location trends of the apex possess a self-similar character that can be related to the cosmic web's hierarchical buildup. We find that persistence diagrams provide a significantly higher and more profound level of information on the structure formation process than more global summary statistics like Euler characteristic or Betti numbers.

Causal de Finetti: On the Identification of Invariant Causal Structure in Exchangeable Data

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Preserving Statistical Validity in Adaptive Data Analysis

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

BAMBOO: a predictive and transferable machine learning force field framework for liquid electrolyte development

Despite the widespread applications of machine learning force field (MLFF) on solids and small molecules, there is a notable gap in applying MLFF to complex liquid electrolytes. In this work, we introduce BAMBOO (ByteDance AI Molecular Simulation Booster), a novel framework for molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, with a demonstration of its capabilities in the context of liquid electrolytes for lithium batteries. We design a physics-inspired graph equivariant transformer architecture as the backbone of BAMBOO to learn from quantum mechanical simulations. Additionally, we pioneer an ensemble knowledge distillation approach and apply it on MLFFs to improve the stability of MD simulations. Finally, we propose the density alignment algorithm to align BAMBOO with experimental measurements. BAMBOO demonstrates state-of-the-art accuracy in predicting key electrolyte properties such as density, viscosity, and ionic conductivity across various solvents and salt combinations. Our current model, trained on more than 15 chemical species, achieves the average density error of 0.01 g/cm^3 on various compositions compared with experimental data. Moreover, our model demonstrates transferability to molecules not included in the quantum mechanical dataset. We envision this work as paving the way to a "universal MLFF" capable of simulating properties of common organic liquids.

Physics-informed cluster analysis and a priori efficiency criterion for the construction of local reduced-order bases

Nonlinear model order reduction has opened the door to parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification in complex physics problems governed by nonlinear equations. In particular, the computational cost of solving these equations can be reduced by means of local reduced-order bases. This article examines the benefits of a physics-informed cluster analysis for the construction of cluster-specific reduced-order bases. We illustrate that the choice of the dissimilarity measure for clustering is fundamental and highly affects the performances of the local reduced-order bases. It is shown that clustering with an angle-based dissimilarity on simulation data efficiently decreases the intra-cluster Kolmogorov N-width. Additionally, an a priori efficiency criterion is introduced to assess the relevance of a ROM-net, a methodology for the reduction of nonlinear physics problems introduced in our previous work in [T. Daniel, F. Casenave, N. Akkari, D. Ryckelynck, Model order reduction assisted by deep neural networks (ROM-net), Advanced Modeling and Simulation in Engineering Sciences 7 (16), 2020]. This criterion also provides engineers with a very practical method for ROM-nets' hyperparameters calibration under constrained computational costs for the training phase. On five different physics problems, our physics-informed clustering strategy significantly outperforms classic strategies for the construction of local reduced-order bases in terms of projection errors.

Autoregressive Transformer Neural Network for Simulating Open Quantum Systems via a Probabilistic Formulation

The theory of open quantum systems lays the foundations for a substantial part of modern research in quantum science and engineering. Rooted in the dimensionality of their extended Hilbert spaces, the high computational complexity of simulating open quantum systems calls for the development of strategies to approximate their dynamics. In this paper, we present an approach for tackling open quantum system dynamics. Using an exact probabilistic formulation of quantum physics based on positive operator-valued measure (POVM), we compactly represent quantum states with autoregressive transformer neural networks; such networks bring significant algorithmic flexibility due to efficient exact sampling and tractable density. We further introduce the concept of String States to partially restore the symmetry of the autoregressive transformer neural network and improve the description of local correlations. Efficient algorithms have been developed to simulate the dynamics of the Liouvillian superoperator using a forward-backward trapezoid method and find the steady state via a variational formulation. Our approach is benchmarked on prototypical one and two-dimensional systems, finding results which closely track the exact solution and achieve higher accuracy than alternative approaches based on using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample restricted Boltzmann machines. Our work provides general methods for understanding quantum dynamics in various contexts, as well as techniques for solving high-dimensional probabilistic differential equations in classical setups.

Von Mises Mixture Distributions for Molecular Conformation Generation

Molecules are frequently represented as graphs, but the underlying 3D molecular geometry (the locations of the atoms) ultimately determines most molecular properties. However, most molecules are not static and at room temperature adopt a wide variety of geometries or conformations. The resulting distribution on geometries p(x) is known as the Boltzmann distribution, and many molecular properties are expectations computed under this distribution. Generating accurate samples from the Boltzmann distribution is therefore essential for computing these expectations accurately. Traditional sampling-based methods are computationally expensive, and most recent machine learning-based methods have focused on identifying modes in this distribution rather than generating true samples. Generating such samples requires capturing conformational variability, and it has been widely recognized that the majority of conformational variability in molecules arises from rotatable bonds. In this work, we present VonMisesNet, a new graph neural network that captures conformational variability via a variational approximation of rotatable bond torsion angles as a mixture of von Mises distributions. We demonstrate that VonMisesNet can generate conformations for arbitrary molecules in a way that is both physically accurate with respect to the Boltzmann distribution and orders of magnitude faster than existing sampling methods.

Rise and Fall of Anderson Localization by Lattice Vibrations: A Time-Dependent Machine Learning Approach

The intricate relationship between electrons and the crystal lattice is a linchpin in condensed matter, traditionally described by the Fr\"ohlich model encompassing the lowest-order lattice-electron coupling. Recently developed quantum acoustics, emphasizing the wave nature of lattice vibrations, has enabled the exploration of previously uncharted territories of electron-lattice interaction not accessible with conventional tools such as perturbation theory. In this context, our agenda here is two-fold. First, we showcase the application of machine learning methods to categorize various interaction regimes within the subtle interplay of electrons and the dynamical lattice landscape. Second, we shed light on a nebulous region of electron dynamics identified by the machine learning approach and then attribute it to transient localization, where strong lattice vibrations result in a momentary Anderson prison for electronic wavepackets, which are later released by the evolution of the lattice. Overall, our research illuminates the spectrum of dynamics within the Fr\"ohlich model, such as transient localization, which has been suggested as a pivotal factor contributing to the mysteries surrounding strange metals. Furthermore, this paves the way for utilizing time-dependent perspectives in machine learning techniques for designing materials with tailored electron-lattice properties.

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow: Scale and redshift variation of velocity and density distributions

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

Solving High-Dimensional PDEs with Latent Spectral Models

Deep models have achieved impressive progress in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). A burgeoning paradigm is learning neural operators to approximate the input-output mappings of PDEs. While previous deep models have explored the multiscale architectures and various operator designs, they are limited to learning the operators as a whole in the coordinate space. In real physical science problems, PDEs are complex coupled equations with numerical solvers relying on discretization into high-dimensional coordinate space, which cannot be precisely approximated by a single operator nor efficiently learned due to the curse of dimensionality. We present Latent Spectral Models (LSM) toward an efficient and precise solver for high-dimensional PDEs. Going beyond the coordinate space, LSM enables an attention-based hierarchical projection network to reduce the high-dimensional data into a compact latent space in linear time. Inspired by classical spectral methods in numerical analysis, we design a neural spectral block to solve PDEs in the latent space that approximates complex input-output mappings via learning multiple basis operators, enjoying nice theoretical guarantees for convergence and approximation. Experimentally, LSM achieves consistent state-of-the-art and yields a relative gain of 11.5% averaged on seven benchmarks covering both solid and fluid physics. Code is available at https://github.com/thuml/Latent-Spectral-Models.

Self-limiting stacks of curvature-frustrated colloidal plates: Roles of intra-particle versus inter-particle deformations

In geometrically frustrated assemblies local inter-subunit misfits propagate to intra-assembly strain gradients, giving rise to anomalous self-limiting assembly thermodynamics. Here, we use theory and coarse-grained simulation to study a recently developed class of ``curvamer'' particles, flexible shell-like particles that exhibit self-limiting assembly due to the build up of curvature deformation in cohesive stacks. To address a generic, yet poorly understood aspect of frustrated assembly, we introduce a model of curvamer assembly that incorporates both {\it intra-particle} shape deformation as well as compliance of {\it inter-particle} cohesive gaps, an effect we can attribute to a {\it finite range of attraction} between particles. We show that the ratio of intra-particle (bending elasticity) to inter-particle stiffness not only controls the regimes of self-limitation but also the nature of frustration propagation through curvamer stacks. We find a transition from uniformly-bound, curvature-focusing stacks at small size to gap-opened, uniformly curved stacks at large size is controlled by a dimensionless measure of inter- versus intra-curvamer stiffness. The finite range of inter-particle attraction determines range of cohesion in stacks are self-limiting, a prediction which is in strong agreement with numerical studies of our coarse-grained colloidal model. These predictions provide critical guidance for experimental realizations of frustrated particle systems designed to exhibit self-limitation at especially large multi-particle scales.

Towards Cross Domain Generalization of Hamiltonian Representation via Meta Learning

Recent advances in deep learning for physics have focused on discovering shared representations of target systems by incorporating physics priors or inductive biases into neural networks. While effective, these methods are limited to the system domain, where the type of system remains consistent and thus cannot ensure the adaptation to new, or unseen physical systems governed by different laws. For instance, a neural network trained on a mass-spring system cannot guarantee accurate predictions for the behavior of a two-body system or any other system with different physical laws. In this work, we take a significant leap forward by targeting cross domain generalization within the field of Hamiltonian dynamics. We model our system with a graph neural network and employ a meta learning algorithm to enable the model to gain experience over a distribution of tasks and make it adapt to new physics. Our approach aims to learn a unified Hamiltonian representation that is generalizable across multiple system domains, thereby overcoming the limitations of system-specific models. Our results demonstrate that the meta-trained model not only adapts effectively to new systems but also captures a generalized Hamiltonian representation that is consistent across different physical domains. Overall, through the use of meta learning, we offer a framework that achieves cross domain generalization, providing a step towards a unified model for understanding a wide array of dynamical systems via deep learning.

How to Train Your HiPPO: State Space Models with Generalized Orthogonal Basis Projections

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Foundation Inference Models for Markov Jump Processes

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Quarks to Cosmos: Particles and Plasma in Cosmological evolution

We describe in the context of the particle physics (PP) standard model (SM) `PP-SM' the understanding of the primordial properties and composition of the Universe in the temperature range 130GeV>T>20keV. The Universe evolution is described using FLRW cosmology. We present a global view on particle content across time and describe the different evolution eras using deceleration parameter q. We follow the arrow of time in the expanding and cooling Universe: After the PP-SM heavies (t, h, W, Z) diminish in abundance below Tsimeq 50GeV, the PP-SM plasma in the Universe is governed by the strongly interacting Quark-Gluon content. Once the temperature drops below Tsimeq 150MeV, quarks and gluons hadronize into strongly interacting matter particles. Rapid disappearance of baryonic antimatter completes at T_B=38.2MeV. We study the ensuing disappearance of strangeness and mesons in general. We show that the different eras defined by particle populations are barely separated from each other with abundance of muons fading out just prior to T=O(2.5)MeV, the era of emergence of the free-streaming neutrinos. We discuss the two relevant fundamental constants controlling the decoupling of neutrinos. We subsequently follow the primordial Universe as it passes through the hot dense electron-positron plasma epoch. The high density of positron antimatter disappears near T=20.3keV: Nuclear reactions occur in the presence of a highly mobile and relatively strongly interacting electron-positron plasma phase. We apply plasma theory methods to describe the strong screening effects between heavy dust particle (nucleons). We analyze the paramagnetic characteristics of the electron-positron plasma when exposed to an external primordial magnetic field.

Analysis on Riemann Hypothesis with Cross Entropy Optimization and Reasoning

In this paper, we present a novel framework for the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis [27], which is composed of three key components: a) probabilistic modeling with cross entropy optimization and reasoning; b) the application of the law of large numbers; c) the application of mathematical inductions. The analysis is mainly conducted by virtue of probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning with rare event simulation techniques. The application of the law of large numbers [2, 3, 6] and the application of mathematical inductions make the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis self-contained and complete to make sure that the whole complex plane is covered as conjectured in Riemann Hypothesis. We also discuss the method of enhanced top-p sampling with large language models (LLMs) for reasoning, where next token prediction is not just based on the estimated probabilities of each possible token in the current round but also based on accumulated path probabilities among multiple top-k chain of thoughts (CoTs) paths. The probabilistic modeling of cross entropy optimization and reasoning may suit well with the analysis of Riemann Hypothesis as Riemann Zeta functions are inherently dealing with the sums of infinite components of a complex number series. We hope that our analysis in this paper could shed some light on some of the insights of Riemann Hypothesis. The framework and techniques presented in this paper, coupled with recent developments with chain of thought (CoT) or diagram of thought (DoT) reasoning in large language models (LLMs) with reinforcement learning (RL) [1, 7, 18, 21, 24, 34, 39-41], could pave the way for eventual proof of Riemann Hypothesis [27].

Stochastic acceleration in arbitrary astrophysical environments

Turbulent magnetic fields are to some extent a universal feature in astrophysical phenomena. Charged particles that encounter these turbulence get on average accelerated according to the so-called second-order Fermi process. However, in most astrophysical environments there are additional competing processes, such as different kinds of first-order energy changes and particle escape, that effect the resulting momentum distribution of the particles. In this work we provide to our knowledge the first semi-analytical solution of the isotropic steady-state momentum diffusion equation including continuous and catastrophic momentum changes that can be applied to any arbitrary astrophysical system of interest. Here, we adopt that the assigned magnetic turbulence is constrained on a finite range and the particle flux vanishes beyond these boundaries. Consequently, we show that the so-called pile-up bump -- that has for some special cases long been established -- is a universal feature of stochastic acceleration that emerges around the momentum chi_{rm eq} where acceleration and continuous loss are in equilibrium if the particle's residence time in the system is sufficient at chi_{rm eq}. In general, the impact of continuous and catastrophic momentum changes plays a crucial role in the shape of the steady-state momentum distribution of the accelerated particles, where simplified unbroken power-law approximations are often not adequate.

ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

S2SNet: A Pretrained Neural Network for Superconductivity Discovery

Superconductivity allows electrical current to flow without any energy loss, and thus making solids superconducting is a grand goal of physics, material science, and electrical engineering. More than 16 Nobel Laureates have been awarded for their contribution to superconductivity research. Superconductors are valuable for sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as climate change mitigation, affordable and clean energy, industry, innovation and infrastructure, and so on. However, a unified physics theory explaining all superconductivity mechanism is still unknown. It is believed that superconductivity is microscopically due to not only molecular compositions but also the geometric crystal structure. Hence a new dataset, S2S, containing both crystal structures and superconducting critical temperature, is built upon SuperCon and Material Project. Based on this new dataset, we propose a novel model, S2SNet, which utilizes the attention mechanism for superconductivity prediction. To overcome the shortage of data, S2SNet is pre-trained on the whole Material Project dataset with Masked-Language Modeling (MLM). S2SNet makes a new state-of-the-art, with out-of-sample accuracy of 92% and Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.92. To the best of our knowledge, S2SNet is the first work to predict superconductivity with only information of crystal structures. This work is beneficial to superconductivity discovery and further SDGs. Code and datasets are available in https://github.com/zjuKeLiu/S2SNet

ClimSim: An open large-scale dataset for training high-resolution physics emulators in hybrid multi-scale climate simulators

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

Bayesian Bi-clustering of Neural Spiking Activity with Latent Structures

Modern neural recording techniques allow neuroscientists to obtain spiking activity of multiple neurons from different brain regions over long time periods, which requires new statistical methods to be developed for understanding structure of the large-scale data. In this paper, we develop a bi-clustering method to cluster the neural spiking activity spatially and temporally, according to their low-dimensional latent structures. The spatial (neuron) clusters are defined by the latent trajectories within each neural population, while the temporal (state) clusters are defined by (populationally) synchronous local linear dynamics shared with different periods. To flexibly extract the bi-clustering structure, we build the model non-parametrically, and develop an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample the posterior distributions of model parameters. Validating our proposed MCMC algorithm through simulations, we find the method can recover unknown parameters and true bi-clustering structures successfully. We then apply the proposed bi-clustering method to multi-regional neural recordings under different experiment settings, where we find that simultaneously considering latent trajectories and spatial-temporal clustering structures can provide us with a more accurate and interpretable result. Overall, the proposed method provides scientific insights for large-scale (counting) time series with elongated recording periods, and it can potentially have application beyond neuroscience.

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Rethinking Symbolic Regression Datasets and Benchmarks for Scientific Discovery

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

CHGNet: Pretrained universal neural network potential for charge-informed atomistic modeling

The simulation of large-scale systems with complex electron interactions remains one of the greatest challenges for the atomistic modeling of materials. Although classical force fields often fail to describe the coupling between electronic states and ionic rearrangements, the more accurate ab-initio molecular dynamics suffers from computational complexity that prevents long-time and large-scale simulations, which are essential to study many technologically relevant phenomena, such as reactions, ion migrations, phase transformations, and degradation. In this work, we present the Crystal Hamiltonian Graph neural Network (CHGNet) as a novel machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP), using a graph-neural-network-based force field to model a universal potential energy surface. CHGNet is pretrained on the energies, forces, stresses, and magnetic moments from the Materials Project Trajectory Dataset, which consists of over 10 years of density functional theory static and relaxation trajectories of sim 1.5 million inorganic structures. The explicit inclusion of magnetic moments enables CHGNet to learn and accurately represent the orbital occupancy of electrons, enhancing its capability to describe both atomic and electronic degrees of freedom. We demonstrate several applications of CHGNet in solid-state materials, including charge-informed molecular dynamics in Li_xMnO_2, the finite temperature phase diagram for Li_xFePO_4 and Li diffusion in garnet conductors. We critically analyze the significance of including charge information for capturing appropriate chemistry, and we provide new insights into ionic systems with additional electronic degrees of freedom that can not be observed by previous MLIPs.

Supervised learning with quantum enhanced feature spaces

Machine learning and quantum computing are two technologies each with the potential for altering how computation is performed to address previously untenable problems. Kernel methods for machine learning are ubiquitous for pattern recognition, with support vector machines (SVMs) being the most well-known method for classification problems. However, there are limitations to the successful solution to such problems when the feature space becomes large, and the kernel functions become computationally expensive to estimate. A core element to computational speed-ups afforded by quantum algorithms is the exploitation of an exponentially large quantum state space through controllable entanglement and interference. Here, we propose and experimentally implement two novel methods on a superconducting processor. Both methods represent the feature space of a classification problem by a quantum state, taking advantage of the large dimensionality of quantum Hilbert space to obtain an enhanced solution. One method, the quantum variational classifier builds on [1,2] and operates through using a variational quantum circuit to classify a training set in direct analogy to conventional SVMs. In the second, a quantum kernel estimator, we estimate the kernel function and optimize the classifier directly. The two methods present a new class of tools for exploring the applications of noisy intermediate scale quantum computers [3] to machine learning.

Scalable Diffusion for Materials Generation

Generative models trained on internet-scale data are capable of generating novel and realistic texts, images, and videos. A natural next question is whether these models can advance science, for example by generating novel stable materials. Traditionally, models with explicit structures (e.g., graphs) have been used in modeling structural relationships in scientific data (e.g., atoms and bonds in crystals), but generating structures can be difficult to scale to large and complex systems. Another challenge in generating materials is the mismatch between standard generative modeling metrics and downstream applications. For instance, common metrics such as the reconstruction error do not correlate well with the downstream goal of discovering stable materials. In this work, we tackle the scalability challenge by developing a unified crystal representation that can represent any crystal structure (UniMat), followed by training a diffusion probabilistic model on these UniMat representations. Our empirical results suggest that despite the lack of explicit structure modeling, UniMat can generate high fidelity crystal structures from larger and more complex chemical systems, outperforming previous graph-based approaches under various generative modeling metrics. To better connect the generation quality of materials to downstream applications, such as discovering novel stable materials, we propose additional metrics for evaluating generative models of materials, including per-composition formation energy and stability with respect to convex hulls through decomposition energy from Density Function Theory (DFT). Lastly, we show that conditional generation with UniMat can scale to previously established crystal datasets with up to millions of crystals structures, outperforming random structure search (the current leading method for structure discovery) in discovering new stable materials.

Extreme Event Prediction with Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning-based Parametrization of Atmospheric and Oceanic Turbulence

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Respecting causality is all you need for training physics-informed neural networks

While the popularity of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) is steadily rising, to this date PINNs have not been successful in simulating dynamical systems whose solution exhibits multi-scale, chaotic or turbulent behavior. In this work we attribute this shortcoming to the inability of existing PINNs formulations to respect the spatio-temporal causal structure that is inherent to the evolution of physical systems. We argue that this is a fundamental limitation and a key source of error that can ultimately steer PINN models to converge towards erroneous solutions. We address this pathology by proposing a simple re-formulation of PINNs loss functions that can explicitly account for physical causality during model training. We demonstrate that this simple modification alone is enough to introduce significant accuracy improvements, as well as a practical quantitative mechanism for assessing the convergence of a PINNs model. We provide state-of-the-art numerical results across a series of benchmarks for which existing PINNs formulations fail, including the chaotic Lorenz system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation in the chaotic regime, and the Navier-Stokes equations in the turbulent regime. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that PINNs have been successful in simulating such systems, introducing new opportunities for their applicability to problems of industrial complexity.

State and parameter learning with PaRIS particle Gibbs

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

First Order Quantum Phase Transition in the Hybrid Metal-Mott Insulator Transition Metal Dichalcogenide 4Hb-TaS2

Coupling together distinct correlated and topologically non-trivial electronic phases of matter can potentially induce novel electronic orders and phase transitions among them. Transition metal dichalcogenide compounds serve as a bedrock for exploration of such hybrid systems. They host a variety of exotic electronic phases and their Van der Waals nature enables to admix them, either by exfoliation and stacking or by stoichiometric growth, and thereby induce novel correlated complexes. Here we investigate the compound 4Hb-TaS_2 that interleaves the Mott-insulating state of 1T-TaS_2 and the putative spin liquid it hosts together with the metallic state of 2H-TaS_2 and the low temperature superconducting phase it harbors. We reveal a thermodynamic phase diagram that hosts a first order quantum phase transition between a correlated Kondo cluster state and a flat band state in which the Kondo cluster becomes depleted. We demonstrate that this intrinsic transition can be induced by an electric field and temperature as well as by manipulation of the interlayer coupling with the probe tip, hence allowing to reversibly toggle between the Kondo cluster and the flat band states. The phase transition is manifested by a discontinuous change of the complete electronic spectrum accompanied by hysteresis and low frequency noise. We find that the shape of the transition line in the phase diagram is determined by the local compressibility and the entropy of the two electronic states. Our findings set such heterogeneous structures as an exciting platform for systematic investigation and manipulation of Mott-metal transitions and strongly correlated phases and quantum phase transitions therein.

Generative Marginalization Models

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

A New Approach for Constraining Large-Scale Temperature Fluctuations in the Intergalactic Medium

The reionization of helium is thought to occur at 2.5lesssim zlesssim4, marking the last phase transition and final global heating event of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Since it is driven by rare quasars, helium reionization should give rise to strong temperature fluctuations in the IGM between neutral and recently-ionized regions of order sigma (ln T) sim Delta T/T = 20-50%. We introduce a novel method to search for reionization-induced temperature fluctuations in the IGM by using the effective optical depths of the Lyman-alpha forest towards a large number of background quasars. Higher IGM temperatures give rise to lower effective optical depths in the Lyman-alpha forest, implying that temperature fluctuations will broaden the observed optical depth distribution. We measured the distributions of effective Lyman-alpha forest optical depths across 71 X-Shooter spectra from the XQ-100 survey in four redshift bins from z=3.76 to z=4.19 and compared them to a large-volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. A good agreement is found between the observations and the simulation, which does not include temperature fluctuations; therefore, we do not detect a signature of helium reionization. We then post-process the simulations to include an increasing amount of temperature fluctuations until the model becomes inconsistent with the observations. We obtain tight constraints on sigma (ln T) < 0.29 (<0.40) at 2 sigma (3 sigma) at z=3.76 when averaging over scales of 100 comoving Mpc, and weaker constraints for higher redshifts and smaller scales. Our constraints are the tightest to date, and imply that either the IGM temperature contrast caused by helium reionization is less than sim30%, or that the process has not yet significantly started at z=3.76.

MatterGen: a generative model for inorganic materials design

The design of functional materials with desired properties is essential in driving technological advances in areas like energy storage, catalysis, and carbon capture. Generative models provide a new paradigm for materials design by directly generating entirely novel materials given desired property constraints. Despite recent progress, current generative models have low success rate in proposing stable crystals, or can only satisfy a very limited set of property constraints. Here, we present MatterGen, a model that generates stable, diverse inorganic materials across the periodic table and can further be fine-tuned to steer the generation towards a broad range of property constraints. To enable this, we introduce a new diffusion-based generative process that produces crystalline structures by gradually refining atom types, coordinates, and the periodic lattice. We further introduce adapter modules to enable fine-tuning towards any given property constraints with a labeled dataset. Compared to prior generative models, structures produced by MatterGen are more than twice as likely to be novel and stable, and more than 15 times closer to the local energy minimum. After fine-tuning, MatterGen successfully generates stable, novel materials with desired chemistry, symmetry, as well as mechanical, electronic and magnetic properties. Finally, we demonstrate multi-property materials design capabilities by proposing structures that have both high magnetic density and a chemical composition with low supply-chain risk. We believe that the quality of generated materials and the breadth of MatterGen's capabilities represent a major advancement towards creating a universal generative model for materials design.