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[
"Adolph",
"Coors",
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"its",
"Coors",
"Brewing",
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".",
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",",
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"about",
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"2.2",
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".",
"Coors",
"is",
"hoping",
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"one",
"of",
"the",
"first",
"companies",
"to",
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"bottled",
"water",
"nationwide",
".",
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",",
"sold",
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"Group",
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"America",
",",
"a",
"unit",
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"Source",
"Perrier",
"S.A.",
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",",
"and",
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",",
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"a",
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"are",
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"urban",
"areas",
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",",
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"are",
"less",
"available",
"in",
"rural",
"communities",
".",
"Coors",
",",
"with",
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"beer-distribution",
"network",
",",
"could",
"penetrate",
"more",
"markets",
".",
"The",
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"beer",
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"said",
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"and",
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"6.5",
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"bottles",
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"part",
"of",
"six-packs",
".",
"The",
"test",
"markets",
",",
"though",
"not",
"specified",
",",
"will",
"be",
"in",
"northern",
"California",
",",
"Arizona",
"and",
"Colorado",
",",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"hottest",
"bottled-water",
"markets",
"."
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[
"President",
"Bush",
"and",
"Soviet",
"leader",
"Mikhail",
"Gorbachev",
"will",
"hold",
"an",
"informal",
"meeting",
"in",
"early",
"December",
",",
"a",
"move",
"that",
"should",
"give",
"both",
"leaders",
"a",
"political",
"boost",
"at",
"home",
".",
"The",
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"House",
"is",
"purposely",
"not",
"calling",
"the",
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"a",
"summit",
"so",
"that",
"there",
"wo",
"n't",
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"any",
"expectation",
"of",
"detailed",
"negotiations",
"or",
"agreements",
".",
"Rather",
",",
"senior",
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"officials",
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"the",
"unexpected",
"meeting",
"was",
"scheduled",
"at",
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"'s",
"request",
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"of",
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"diplomacy",
"through",
"highly",
"personal",
"and",
"informal",
"meetings",
"with",
"other",
"leaders",
".",
"The",
"two",
"leaders",
"will",
"meet",
"on",
"Dec.",
"2",
"and",
"3",
",",
"alternating",
"the",
"two",
"days",
"of",
"meetings",
"between",
"a",
"U.S.",
"and",
"a",
"Soviet",
"naval",
"vessel",
"in",
"the",
"Mediterranean",
"Sea",
".",
"The",
"unusual",
"seaborne",
"meeting",
"wo",
"n't",
"disrupt",
"plans",
"for",
"a",
"formal",
"summit",
"meeting",
"next",
"spring",
"or",
"summer",
",",
"at",
"which",
"an",
"arms-control",
"treaty",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"be",
"completed",
".",
"In",
"announcing",
"the",
"meeting",
"yesterday",
",",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"told",
"reporters",
"at",
"the",
"White",
"House",
"that",
"neither",
"he",
"nor",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"expects",
"any",
"``",
"substantial",
"decisions",
"or",
"agreements",
".",
"''",
"Instead",
",",
"he",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"purpose",
"is",
"simply",
"for",
"the",
"two",
"to",
"get",
"``",
"better",
"acquainted",
"''",
"and",
"discuss",
"a",
"wide",
"range",
"of",
"issues",
"without",
"a",
"formal",
"agenda",
".",
"Despite",
"the",
"informal",
"nature",
"of",
"the",
"session",
"and",
"the",
"calculated",
"effort",
"to",
"hold",
"down",
"expectations",
",",
"the",
"meeting",
"could",
"pay",
"significant",
"political",
"dividends",
"for",
"both",
"leaders",
".",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"badly",
"needs",
"a",
"diversion",
"from",
"the",
"serious",
"economic",
"problems",
"and",
"ethnic",
"unrest",
"he",
"faces",
"at",
"home",
".",
"American",
"officials",
"have",
"said",
"that",
"a",
"meeting",
"with",
"the",
"leader",
"of",
"the",
"U.S.",
"could",
"help",
"bolster",
"his",
"stature",
"among",
"Soviet",
"politicians",
"and",
"academics",
",",
"whose",
"support",
"he",
"needs",
".",
"For",
"his",
"part",
",",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"has",
"been",
"criticized",
"regularly",
"at",
"home",
"for",
"moving",
"too",
"slowly",
"and",
"cautiously",
"in",
"reacting",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"'s",
"reforms",
"and",
"the",
"historic",
"moves",
"away",
"from",
"communism",
"in",
"Eastern",
"Europe",
".",
"A",
"face-to-face",
"meeting",
"with",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"should",
"damp",
"such",
"criticism",
",",
"though",
"it",
"will",
"hardly",
"eliminate",
"it",
".",
"Senate",
"Majority",
"Leader",
"George",
"Mitchell",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Maine",
")",
",",
"who",
"has",
"been",
"the",
"most",
"prominent",
"Democratic",
"critic",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"'s",
"handling",
"of",
"the",
"Soviet",
"relationship",
",",
"praised",
"the",
"president",
"for",
"arranging",
"the",
"meeting",
".",
"But",
"he",
"added",
":",
"``",
"The",
"mere",
"fact",
"of",
"a",
"meeting",
"does",
"n't",
"deal",
"with",
"the",
"substance",
"of",
"policy",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"December",
"meeting",
",",
"which",
"was",
"announced",
"simultaneously",
"in",
"Moscow",
",",
"will",
"be",
"held",
"in",
"the",
"unusual",
"setting",
"of",
"ships",
"at",
"sea",
"to",
"hold",
"down",
"the",
"``",
"fanfare",
"''",
"and",
"force",
"the",
"two",
"sides",
"to",
"limit",
"participation",
"to",
"just",
"small",
"groups",
"of",
"advisers",
".",
"``",
"By",
"doing",
"it",
"in",
"this",
"manner",
"we",
"can",
"have",
",",
"I",
"would",
"say",
",",
"more",
"time",
"without",
"the",
"press",
"of",
"social",
"activities",
"or",
"mandatory",
"joint",
"appearances",
",",
"things",
"of",
"that",
"nature",
"for",
"public",
"consumption",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"said",
".",
"Soviet",
"Foreign",
"Minister",
"Eduard",
"Shevardnadze",
",",
"at",
"a",
"news",
"conference",
"in",
"Moscow",
",",
"said",
",",
"``",
"As",
"the",
"two",
"sides",
"plan",
"to",
"hold",
"a",
"full-scale",
"summit",
"in",
"late",
"spring-early",
"summer",
"next",
"year",
",",
"they",
"found",
"it",
"useful",
",",
"I",
"would",
"say",
"even",
"necessary",
",",
"to",
"hold",
"an",
"interim",
"informal",
"meeting",
".",
"''",
"Although",
"no",
"specific",
"agreements",
"are",
"expected",
",",
"Mr.",
"Shevardnadze",
"said",
"``",
"that",
"does",
"n't",
"mean",
"they",
"will",
"be",
"without",
"an",
"agenda",
".",
"''",
"If",
"the",
"two",
"leaders",
"cover",
"the",
"subjects",
"that",
"have",
"been",
"featured",
"in",
"lower",
"level",
"U.S.-Soviet",
"meetings",
",",
"their",
"talks",
"would",
"include",
"human",
"rights",
",",
"Soviet",
"reforms",
",",
"regional",
"disputes",
",",
"relations",
"with",
"allies",
",",
"economic",
"cooperation",
",",
"arms",
"control",
",",
"and",
"joint",
"efforts",
"to",
"fight",
"narcotics",
",",
"terrorism",
"and",
"pollution",
".",
"The",
"president",
"specifically",
"mentioned",
"U.S.",
"economic",
"advice",
"to",
"Moscow",
"as",
"a",
"possible",
"topic",
".",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"has",
"for",
"months",
"been",
"publicly",
"urging",
"the",
"U.S.",
"to",
"drop",
"its",
"restrictions",
"on",
"Soviet",
"trade",
".",
"He",
"recently",
"told",
"a",
"small",
"group",
"of",
"American",
"businessmen",
"in",
"Moscow",
"that",
"he",
"hoped",
"to",
"sign",
"a",
"general",
"trade",
"agreement",
"with",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"possibly",
"at",
"the",
"1990",
"summit",
".",
"The",
"Soviets",
"hope",
"a",
"trade",
"agreement",
"would",
"give",
"them",
"Most-Favored",
"Nation",
"status",
",",
"which",
"would",
"lower",
"the",
"tariffs",
"on",
"Soviet",
"exports",
"to",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"In",
"an",
"unusually",
"candid",
"article",
"about",
"the",
"latest",
"economic",
"woe",
"--",
"unemployment",
"--",
"Pravda",
"yesterday",
"reported",
"that",
"three",
"million",
"Soviets",
"have",
"lost",
"their",
"jobs",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"perestroika",
"and",
"the",
"number",
"could",
"grow",
"to",
"16",
"million",
"by",
"the",
"year",
"2005",
".",
"Economists",
"in",
"Moscow",
"are",
"now",
"proposing",
"that",
"the",
"state",
"start",
"a",
"system",
"of",
"unemployment",
"benefits",
".",
"But",
"one",
"Bush",
"administration",
"official",
"knowledgeable",
"about",
"the",
"summit",
"plan",
"cautioned",
"against",
"assuming",
"that",
"there",
"will",
"be",
"bold",
"new",
"initiatives",
"on",
"the",
"Soviet",
"economy",
"or",
"other",
"issues",
".",
"``",
"Do",
"n't",
"take",
"this",
"as",
"some",
"big",
"opening",
"for",
"major",
"movement",
"on",
"economic",
"cooperation",
",",
"or",
"arms",
"control",
",",
"or",
"the",
"environment",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"``",
"Those",
"things",
"will",
"all",
"come",
"up",
",",
"but",
"in",
"a",
"fairly",
"informal",
"way",
".",
"''",
"Instead",
",",
"this",
"official",
"said",
",",
"``",
"This",
"is",
"vintage",
"George",
"Bush",
".",
"This",
"was",
"George",
"Bush",
"'s",
"own",
"idea",
".",
"It",
"'s",
"George",
"Bush",
"wanting",
"to",
"meet",
"a",
"foreign",
"leader",
"and",
"talk",
"to",
"him",
"directly",
".",
"''",
"Aside",
"from",
"the",
"Soviet",
"economic",
"plight",
"and",
"talks",
"on",
"cutting",
"strategic",
"and",
"chemical",
"arms",
",",
"one",
"other",
"issue",
"the",
"Soviets",
"are",
"likely",
"to",
"want",
"to",
"raise",
"is",
"naval",
"force",
"reductions",
".",
"Western",
"analysts",
"say",
"that",
",",
"given",
"the",
"meeting",
"'s",
"setting",
"at",
"sea",
",",
"Gorbachev",
"is",
"unlikely",
"to",
"pass",
"up",
"the",
"opportunity",
"to",
"press",
"once",
"again",
"for",
"negotiated",
"cuts",
"in",
"the",
"navies",
"of",
"both",
"the",
"North",
"Atlantic",
"Treaty",
"Organization",
"and",
"the",
"Warsaw",
"Pact",
".",
"That",
"theme",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"recurring",
"one",
"for",
"Soviet",
"military",
"officials",
"for",
"much",
"of",
"this",
"year",
".",
"They",
"argue",
"that",
"as",
"the",
"Kremlin",
"follows",
"through",
"on",
"announced",
"plans",
"to",
"cut",
"land",
"forces",
"--",
"the",
"Soviets",
"'",
"area",
"of",
"greatest",
"strength",
"--",
"the",
"U.S.",
"should",
"show",
"more",
"willingness",
"to",
"cut",
"sea",
"forces",
"--",
"Washington",
"'s",
"area",
"of",
"greatest",
"superiority",
".",
"One",
"of",
"the",
"reasons",
"Bush",
"administration",
"aides",
"are",
"anxious",
"to",
"insist",
"that",
"the",
"coming",
"meeting",
"will",
"be",
"informal",
"is",
"to",
"avoid",
"comparisons",
"with",
"the",
"last",
"such",
"loosely",
"structured",
"superpower",
"gathering",
",",
"former",
"President",
"Reagan",
"'s",
"1986",
"meeting",
"with",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"in",
"Reykjavik",
",",
"Iceland",
".",
"That",
"meeting",
"sent",
"shivers",
"through",
"the",
"Western",
"alliance",
"because",
"Mr.",
"Reagan",
"was",
"pulled",
"into",
"discussing",
"the",
"possible",
"elimination",
"of",
"nuclear",
"weapons",
"without",
"consulting",
"American",
"allies",
".",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"said",
"that",
"he",
"initiated",
"talks",
"with",
"the",
"Soviets",
"on",
"the",
"informal",
"meeting",
"by",
"sending",
"a",
"proposal",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"last",
"July",
",",
"which",
"the",
"Soviet",
"leader",
"readily",
"accepted",
".",
"But",
"word",
"of",
"the",
"possible",
"session",
"was",
"closely",
"held",
"by",
"the",
"president",
"and",
"a",
"handful",
"of",
"top",
"aides",
",",
"and",
"word",
"of",
"it",
"did",
"n't",
"reach",
"many",
"second-level",
"officials",
"until",
"the",
"past",
"few",
"days",
".",
"Indeed",
",",
"many",
"senior",
"officials",
"had",
"been",
"insisting",
"for",
"weeks",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"was",
"n't",
"interested",
"in",
"such",
"an",
"informal",
"get-together",
".",
"Though",
"President",
"Bush",
"'s",
"political",
"critics",
"at",
"home",
"have",
"been",
"urging",
"him",
"to",
"open",
"a",
"more",
"direct",
"dialogue",
"with",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
",",
"it",
"actually",
"was",
"the",
"arguments",
"of",
"leaders",
"within",
"the",
"Soviet",
"bloc",
"itself",
"that",
"led",
"the",
"president",
"to",
"seek",
"the",
"December",
"meeting",
".",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"decided",
"he",
"wanted",
"the",
"meeting",
"after",
"talking",
"in",
"Europe",
"in",
"July",
"with",
"the",
"leaders",
"of",
"Poland",
"and",
"Hungary",
",",
"who",
"urged",
"him",
"to",
"support",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"'s",
"efforts",
"to",
"transform",
"the",
"Soviet",
"system",
"and",
"to",
"urge",
"him",
"to",
"loosen",
"his",
"grip",
"on",
"Eastern",
"Europe",
",",
"a",
"senior",
"aide",
"said",
".",
"While",
"flying",
"home",
"from",
"those",
"discussions",
",",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"drafted",
"a",
"letter",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"suggesting",
"an",
"informal",
"get-together",
"to",
"precede",
"their",
"formal",
"summit",
"next",
"year",
".",
"Peter",
"Gumbel",
"in",
"Moscow",
"contributed",
"to",
"this",
"article",
"."
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[
"Ekco",
"Group",
"Inc.",
",",
"Nashua",
",",
"N.H.",
",",
"expects",
"to",
"report",
"that",
"net",
"income",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
",",
"ended",
"Oct.",
"1",
",",
"fell",
"50",
"%",
"to",
"60",
"%",
"from",
"$",
"2.1",
"million",
",",
"or",
"11",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
",",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
".",
"Robert",
"Stein",
",",
"president",
"and",
"chief",
"executive",
"officer",
",",
"attributed",
"the",
"expected",
"decline",
"partly",
"to",
"the",
"effects",
"of",
"a",
"two-week",
"strike",
"last",
"month",
"at",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"Masillon",
",",
"Ohio",
",",
"bakeware",
"facility",
".",
"Softer-than-expected",
"orders",
"in",
"early",
"September",
"also",
"played",
"a",
"role",
",",
"he",
"said",
"in",
"an",
"interview",
".",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"he",
"is",
"``",
"reasonably",
"confident",
"''",
"that",
"earnings",
"for",
"the",
"full",
"year",
"will",
"exceed",
"the",
"$",
"3.1",
"million",
",",
"or",
"17",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
",",
"in",
"1988",
".",
"That",
"would",
"require",
"fourth-quarter",
"net",
"of",
"more",
"than",
"about",
"22",
"cents",
"to",
"24",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
",",
"assuming",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"'s",
"third-quarter",
"estimate",
"proves",
"accurate",
".",
"In",
"the",
"year-earlier",
"fourth",
"quarter",
",",
"the",
"company",
"had",
"profit",
"of",
"$",
"2.7",
"million",
",",
"or",
"15",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
".",
"Third-quarter",
"revenue",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"be",
"$",
"40",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"45",
"million",
",",
"up",
"from",
"$",
"38.2",
"million",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Neil",
"Gordon",
",",
"treasurer",
".",
"The",
"year-earlier",
"periods",
"do",
"n't",
"reflect",
"results",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"Woodstream",
"Corp.",
"unit",
",",
"acquired",
"last",
"January",
",",
"but",
"include",
"some",
"Canadian",
"operations",
"that",
"were",
"sold",
"at",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"1988",
".",
"August",
"through",
"October",
"traditionally",
"is",
"the",
"busiest",
"season",
"for",
"the",
"bakeware",
"business",
",",
"as",
"many",
"retailers",
"use",
"the",
"goods",
"as",
"autumn",
"promotional",
"items",
".",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"some",
"retailers",
"--",
"perhaps",
"anxious",
"about",
"minimizing",
"inventories",
"--",
"appear",
"to",
"have",
"held",
"back",
"on",
"orders",
"in",
"September",
"but",
"have",
"been",
"ordering",
"more",
"heavily",
"in",
"October",
".",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"Woodstream",
"is",
"``",
"marginally",
"profitable",
"''",
"but",
"has",
"n't",
"performed",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"expected",
".",
"Woodstream",
"'s",
"Victor-brand",
"mousetraps",
"and",
"other",
"pest-control",
"products",
"are",
"``",
"doing",
"very",
"well",
",",
"''",
"and",
"its",
"plastic",
"storage-case",
"products",
"``",
"are",
"poised",
"for",
"growth",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
".",
"But",
"the",
"unit",
"'s",
"third",
"segment",
",",
"wildlife",
"traps",
",",
"is",
"suffering",
"from",
"a",
"``",
"depressed",
"market",
",",
"''",
"and",
"Ekco",
"is",
"seeking",
"to",
"sell",
"that",
"segment",
",",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"he",
"expects",
"profit",
"to",
"be",
"higher",
"in",
"1990",
"than",
"in",
"1989",
",",
"reflecting",
"a",
"number",
"of",
"measures",
"taken",
"since",
"the",
"acquisition",
"of",
"Ekco",
"Housewares",
"in",
"late",
"1987",
".",
"(",
"Prior",
"to",
"acquiring",
"the",
"housewares",
"business",
",",
"the",
"company",
"was",
"known",
"as",
"Centronics",
"Corp.",
";",
"Centronics",
"had",
"been",
"a",
"maker",
"of",
"computer",
"printers",
",",
"but",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"and",
"other",
"officers",
"decided",
"to",
"sell",
"that",
"business",
"after",
"Japanese",
"competitors",
"grabbed",
"a",
"dominant",
"share",
"of",
"the",
"market",
".",
")",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"tighter",
"operating",
"controls",
"have",
"enabled",
"Ekco",
"to",
"reduce",
"inventory",
"levels",
"25",
"%",
"to",
"30",
"%",
";",
"improve",
"on-time",
"delivery",
"of",
"orders",
"to",
"about",
"95",
"%",
"from",
"around",
"70",
"%",
";",
"and",
"to",
"lower",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"labor",
"hours",
"required",
"to",
"produce",
"a",
"unit",
".",
"By",
"moving",
"the",
"design",
"of",
"new",
"products",
"in-house",
"--",
"instead",
"of",
"contracting",
"out",
"the",
"work",
"--",
"the",
"company",
"also",
"has",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"come",
"up",
"with",
"designs",
"that",
"can",
"be",
"manufactured",
"more",
"efficiently",
",",
"he",
"said",
".",
"In",
"addition",
"to",
"those",
"measures",
",",
"the",
"company",
"spent",
"heavily",
"earlier",
"this",
"year",
"to",
"install",
"displays",
"at",
"its",
"customers",
"'",
"retail",
"outlets",
"--",
"a",
"strategy",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
"has",
"helped",
"bolster",
"awareness",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"brands",
".",
"Ekco",
"'s",
"housewares",
"operation",
"makes",
"kitchen",
"tools",
"and",
"gadgets",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"bakeware",
",",
"at",
"factories",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
"and",
"Canada",
".",
"The",
"main",
"issue",
"in",
"the",
"strike",
"at",
"the",
"Ohio",
"facility",
"was",
"health-care",
"benefits",
",",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
".",
"The",
"strike",
"ended",
"Oct",
".",
"Ekco",
"continues",
"to",
"seek",
"further",
"acquisitions",
"in",
"the",
"consumer-products",
"industry",
",",
"Mr.",
"Stein",
"said",
".",
"He",
"indicated",
"that",
"Ekco",
"may",
"be",
"interested",
"in",
"acquiring",
"another",
"company",
"with",
"revenue",
"in",
"the",
"range",
"of",
"$",
"75",
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"to",
"$",
"100",
"million",
",",
"partly",
"because",
"mass",
"merchandisers",
"increasingly",
"want",
"to",
"rely",
"on",
"larger",
",",
"and",
"fewer",
",",
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"."
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[
"Sheraton",
"Corp.",
"and",
"Pan",
"American",
"World",
"Airways",
"announced",
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"two",
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"U.S.",
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",",
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"Ambassador",
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",",
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"Commerce",
"Secretary",
"Robert",
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",",
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",",
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"''",
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"ties",
".",
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"likely",
"will",
"have",
"a",
"``",
"mulitiplier",
"effect",
"''",
"in",
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"trade",
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".",
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"project",
"will",
"be",
"the",
"largest",
"U.S.-backed",
"joint",
"venture",
"to",
"be",
"undertaken",
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"years",
".",
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"the",
"hotels",
",",
"to",
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"called",
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"Moscow",
",",
"will",
"have",
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"rooms",
"and",
"will",
"cost",
"an",
"estimated",
"$",
"75",
"million",
"to",
"build",
".",
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"six-story",
"hotel",
"will",
"be",
"on",
"Gorky",
"Street",
"and",
"initially",
"will",
"cater",
"mostly",
"to",
"business",
"travelers",
".",
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"will",
"have",
"a",
"Russian",
"tavern",
",",
"an",
"English",
"pub",
",",
"a",
"discotheque",
"and",
"Japanese",
"and",
"Italian",
"restaurants",
",",
"according",
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".",
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".",
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"second",
"hotel",
",",
"to",
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"the",
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"Hotel",
",",
"is",
"to",
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"at",
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"site",
"even",
"closer",
"to",
"Red",
"Square",
".",
"Details",
"about",
"its",
"size",
"and",
"cost",
"have",
"n't",
"yet",
"been",
"determined",
".",
"Sheraton",
",",
"a",
"subsidiary",
"of",
"ITT",
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",",
"will",
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"a",
"40",
"%",
"share",
"in",
"the",
"two",
"hotels",
";",
"Pan",
"American",
",",
"a",
"subsidiary",
"of",
"Pan",
"Am",
"Corp.",
",",
"will",
"have",
"a",
"10",
"%",
"share",
".",
"The",
"Soviet",
"owners",
"will",
"be",
"Mossoviet",
",",
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"'s",
"city",
"governing",
"body",
",",
"and",
"Aeroflot",
",",
"the",
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"national",
"airline",
".",
"Although",
"a",
"Finnish",
"group",
"has",
"a",
"minority",
"interest",
"in",
"an",
"already",
"operating",
"Moscow",
"hotel",
",",
"the",
"Sheraton-Pan",
"Am",
"venture",
"will",
"be",
"the",
"first",
"joint-venture",
"hotels",
"in",
"the",
"Soviet",
"Union",
"to",
"have",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"50",
"%",
"foreign",
"ownership",
".",
"U.S.",
"companies",
"account",
"for",
"less",
"than",
"8",
"%",
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"the",
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"undertakings",
"in",
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".",
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"some",
"U.S.",
"companies",
"are",
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".",
"Chevron",
"Corp.",
",",
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"Corp.",
",",
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"Co.",
",",
"and",
"Eastman",
"Kodak",
"Co.",
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"companies",
"known",
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"considering",
"such",
"ventures",
".",
"Sheraton",
"and",
"Pan",
"Am",
"said",
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"are",
"assured",
"under",
"the",
"Soviet",
"joint-venture",
"law",
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"they",
"can",
"repatriate",
"profits",
"from",
"their",
"hotel",
"venture",
".",
"The",
"Sheraton",
"Moscow",
"will",
"charge",
"about",
"$",
"140",
"to",
"$",
"150",
"a",
"day",
"for",
"each",
"of",
"its",
"rooms",
",",
"and",
"it",
"will",
"accept",
"payment",
"only",
"in",
"currencies",
"that",
"can",
"be",
"traded",
"in",
"foreign",
"exchange",
"markets",
",",
"according",
"to",
"a",
"Sheraton",
"executive",
".",
"Thomas",
"Plaskett",
",",
"Pan",
"Am",
"'s",
"chairman",
",",
"said",
"the",
"U.S.",
"airline",
"'s",
"participation",
"is",
"a",
"natural",
"outgrowth",
"of",
"its",
"current",
"arrangements",
"with",
"Aeroflot",
"to",
"jointly",
"operate",
"nonstop",
"New",
"York-Moscow",
"flights",
".",
"He",
"said",
"the",
"rising",
"volume",
"of",
"passenger",
"traffic",
"on",
"this",
"route",
"justifies",
"a",
"major",
"investment",
"in",
"new",
"high-standard",
"Moscow",
"hotels",
"."
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[
"October",
"was",
"an",
"edgy",
"month",
"for",
"the",
"practitioners",
"of",
"glasnost",
",",
"the",
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"Soviet",
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"of",
"allowing",
"more",
"candor",
"from",
"the",
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"'s",
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".",
"For",
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"of",
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"glasnost",
",",
"Vitaly",
"Korotich",
",",
"editor",
"of",
"the",
"trail-blazing",
"weekly",
"Ogonyok",
",",
"Friday",
",",
"Oct.",
"20",
"was",
"a",
"somersaulting",
"day",
"that",
"turned",
"from",
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"to",
"elation",
".",
"He",
"had",
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"summoned",
"to",
"the",
"Central",
"Committee",
"of",
"the",
"Soviet",
"Communist",
"Party",
",",
"after",
"he",
"finished",
"his",
"lunch",
"at",
"the",
"Savoy",
"Hotel",
",",
"an",
"unlikely",
"prelude",
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"a",
"bureaucratic",
"brow-beating",
":",
"Eight-foot-tall",
"Rubenesquely",
"naked",
"ladies",
"float",
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"toward",
"a",
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"teeming",
"with",
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",",
"all",
"surrounded",
"by",
"gilt",
"laid",
"on",
"with",
"a",
"pastry",
"chef",
"'s",
"trowel",
"and",
"supported",
"by",
"marble",
"corinthian",
"columns",
"whose",
"capitals",
"are",
"fluting",
"fountains",
"of",
"gold",
".",
"Why",
"had",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
"been",
"called",
"?",
"``",
"I",
"told",
"my",
"driver",
",",
"''",
"he",
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",",
"``",
"that",
"he",
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"taking",
"my",
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"they",
"can",
"...",
"''",
"whack",
",",
"whack",
",",
"whack",
"his",
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"spanking",
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"left",
"palm",
".",
"``",
"They",
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"the",
"need",
"from",
"time",
"to",
"time",
"to",
"`",
"educate",
"'",
"me",
".",
"''",
"And",
"indeed",
",",
"as",
"he",
"later",
"reported",
",",
"that",
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"the",
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"of",
"the",
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".",
"Anxious",
"allies",
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"President",
"Mikhail",
"Gorbachev",
"are",
"cautioning",
"media",
"leaders",
"to",
"take",
"it",
"easy",
",",
"to",
"be",
"careful",
"not",
"to",
"do",
"anything",
"that",
"could",
"be",
"used",
"by",
"Mr.",
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"'s",
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".",
"The",
"government",
"is",
"nervous",
".",
"According",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
",",
"who",
"was",
"present",
",",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"'s",
"publicized",
"tongue-lashing",
"of",
"the",
"press",
"on",
"Oct.",
"13",
"was",
"more",
"of",
"a",
"plea",
":",
"``",
"Be",
"careful",
"boys",
";",
"use",
"good",
"judgment",
".",
"We",
"'re",
"standing",
"in",
"gasoline",
",",
"so",
"do",
"n't",
"smoke",
"!",
"''",
"U.S.",
"and",
"northern",
"European",
"diplomats",
"confirm",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
"'s",
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"that",
"glasnost",
"is",
"in",
"no",
"immediate",
"danger",
".",
"In",
"fact",
",",
"a",
"very",
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"Soviet",
"official",
"told",
"an",
"American",
"official",
"at",
"a",
"diplomatic",
"dinner",
"that",
"no",
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"in",
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"was",
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".",
"The",
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"at",
"the",
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"the",
"U.S.",
"ambassador",
",",
"the",
"Brezhnevite",
"editor",
"of",
"Pravda",
",",
"Victor",
"Afnasjev",
",",
"was",
"replaced",
"by",
"a",
"college",
"classmate",
"of",
"Mr.",
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"'s",
".",
"Brezhnevite",
"holdovers",
"have",
"more",
"to",
"fear",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Gorbachev",
"than",
"the",
"verbal",
"spanking",
"he",
"gave",
"to",
"the",
"press",
".",
"At",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"very",
"week",
"in",
"which",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
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"called",
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"the",
"Central",
"Committee",
",",
"Ogonyok",
"was",
"again",
"demonstrating",
"its",
"independence",
"by",
"printing",
"a",
"poll",
"that",
"showed",
"that",
"35",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"Soviet",
"population",
",",
"a",
"plurality",
",",
"believed",
"that",
"Mr.",
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"'s",
"economic",
"reforms",
",",
"perestroika",
",",
"would",
"result",
"in",
"only",
"insignificant",
"change",
".",
"A",
"good",
"measurement",
"of",
"the",
"popularity",
"of",
"ice-breaker",
"journals",
"like",
"Ogonyok",
"is",
"circulation",
".",
"When",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
"took",
"it",
"over",
"in",
"1986",
",",
"it",
"sold",
"250,000",
"copies",
";",
"today",
"it",
"sells",
"3.4",
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".",
"Pravda",
",",
"meanwhile",
",",
"has",
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"only",
"57",
"%",
"of",
"its",
"1986",
"readership",
".",
"Glasnost",
"has",
"made",
"celebrities",
"of",
"men",
"like",
"Mr.",
"Korotich",
".",
"Prevented",
"by",
"the",
"Communist",
"Party",
"from",
"getting",
"on",
"its",
"slate",
"of",
"nominees",
"for",
"the",
"new",
"Supreme",
"Soviet",
",",
"he",
"stood",
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"from",
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"and",
"won",
"with",
"84",
"%",
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"vote",
".",
"The",
"same",
"evening",
"that",
"he",
"was",
"summoned",
"for",
"a",
"warning",
"from",
"the",
"Party",
",",
"he",
"was",
"cheered",
"by",
"thousands",
"of",
"his",
"supporters",
"at",
"a",
"rally",
"of",
"what",
"can",
"only",
"be",
"called",
"the",
"Korotich",
"party",
".",
"But",
"as",
"astounding",
"as",
"the",
"changes",
"that",
"have",
"already",
"occurred",
"are",
",",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"fragility",
"to",
"glasnost",
".",
"Censorship",
"is",
"n't",
"a",
"Marxist",
"invention",
".",
"The",
"czars",
"were",
"no",
"civil",
"libertarians",
".",
"As",
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"as",
"the",
"1890s",
",",
"the",
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".",
"It",
"even",
"directed",
"newspapers",
"not",
"to",
"publish",
"anything",
"that",
"might",
"stain",
"the",
"honor",
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"the",
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"sultan",
"'s",
"wives",
".",
"So",
"glasnost",
"is",
"not",
"a",
"value",
"woven",
"with",
"steel",
"threads",
"into",
"the",
"fabric",
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".",
"It",
"is",
"an",
"admirable",
"public",
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"program",
"initiated",
"by",
"a",
"single",
"political",
"leader",
"during",
"a",
"four-year",
"blink",
"of",
"history",
".",
"It",
"is",
"public",
"relations",
"of",
"the",
"highest",
"sophistication",
",",
"that",
"recognizes",
"that",
"credibility",
"is",
"enhanced",
"by",
"honesty",
"--",
"up",
"to",
"a",
"point",
".",
"What",
"is",
"that",
"point",
"?",
"Will",
"Ogonyok",
"begin",
"a",
"series",
"of",
"reports",
"analyzing",
"the",
"failures",
"of",
"perestroika",
"?",
"``",
"I",
"'d",
"be",
"destroying",
"myself",
",",
"''",
"replies",
"Mr.",
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",",
"who",
"then",
"asks",
",",
"``",
"What",
"would",
"that",
"accomplish",
"?",
"''",
"His",
"answer",
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"his",
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"--",
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"also",
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"normal",
"dialogue",
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"culture",
".",
"It",
"is",
"the",
"line",
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"which",
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"report",
"not",
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"on",
"the",
"bankruptcy",
"of",
"factories",
"but",
"on",
"the",
"failures",
"of",
"even",
"admirable",
"leaders",
".",
"Mr.",
"Ayers",
"is",
"editor",
"and",
"publisher",
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"the",
"Anniston",
",",
"Ala.",
",",
"Star",
"."
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".",
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",",
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".",
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"areas",
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"sector",
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"were",
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"foreign",
"students",
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".",
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")",
",",
"some",
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"(",
"a",
"law",
"firm",
"billing",
"a",
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"client",
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"services",
"rendered",
"in",
"watching",
"legislation",
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"is",
"as",
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"as",
"shipment",
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"an",
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"jet",
"engine",
")",
",",
"and",
"improved",
"data",
"from",
"travel",
"and",
"tourism",
".",
"In",
"just",
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",",
"the",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"found",
"$",
"23",
"billion",
"more",
"exports",
"than",
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"reported",
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"$",
"11.6",
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",",
"with",
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"net",
"result",
"that",
"the",
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"service",
"surplus",
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"1988",
"increased",
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"$",
"11.3",
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",",
"to",
"$",
"19",
"billion",
".",
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"and",
"revisions",
"in",
"other",
"trade",
"areas",
",",
"the",
"value",
"of",
"U.S.",
"net",
"exports",
"that",
"had",
"not",
"previously",
"been",
"recorded",
"was",
"about",
"$",
"20",
"billion",
"a",
"year",
".",
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"the",
"U.S.",
"trade",
"deficit",
"was",
"running",
"closer",
"to",
"$",
"75",
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"than",
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"$",
"95",
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"1988",
",",
"and",
"$",
"55",
"billion",
"(",
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")",
"rather",
"than",
"$",
"80",
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"first",
"quarter",
"of",
"1989",
".",
"These",
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"strength",
"of",
"the",
"dollar",
".",
"The",
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"smaller",
"trade",
"deficit",
"may",
"have",
"been",
"already",
"discounted",
"in",
"the",
"market",
".",
"What",
"does",
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"trade",
"policy",
"?",
"Too",
"early",
"to",
"tell",
",",
"but",
"a",
"trade",
"deficit",
"that",
"is",
"significantly",
"smaller",
"than",
"we",
"imagined",
"does",
"suggest",
"a",
"review",
"of",
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"posture",
".",
"It",
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"not",
"relieve",
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"need",
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",",
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".",
"Mr.",
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"Express",
"."
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[
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",",
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":",
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"Unlike",
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",",
"the",
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"requests",
".",
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"many",
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"have",
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"say",
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",",
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",",
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"Monday",
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"at",
"less",
"than",
"one-third",
"the",
"level",
"two",
"years",
"ago",
".",
"As",
"of",
"yesterday",
"afternoon",
",",
"the",
"redemptions",
"represented",
"less",
"than",
"15",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"total",
"cash",
"position",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"2",
"billion",
"of",
"Fidelity",
"'s",
"stock",
"funds",
".",
"``",
"Two",
"years",
"ago",
"there",
"were",
"massive",
"redemption",
"levels",
"over",
"the",
"weekend",
"and",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"fear",
"around",
",",
"''",
"said",
"C.",
"Bruce",
"Johnstone",
",",
"who",
"runs",
"Fidelity",
"Investments",
"'",
"$",
"5",
"billion",
"Equity-Income",
"Fund",
".",
"``",
"This",
"feels",
"more",
"like",
"a",
"one-shot",
"deal",
".",
"People",
"are",
"n't",
"panicking",
".",
"''",
"The",
"test",
"may",
"come",
"today",
".",
"Friday",
"'s",
"stock",
"market",
"sell-off",
"came",
"too",
"late",
"for",
"many",
"investors",
"to",
"act",
".",
"Some",
"shareholders",
"have",
"held",
"off",
"until",
"today",
"because",
"any",
"fund",
"exchanges",
"made",
"after",
"Friday",
"'s",
"close",
"would",
"take",
"place",
"at",
"today",
"'s",
"closing",
"prices",
".",
"Stock",
"fund",
"redemptions",
"during",
"the",
"1987",
"debacle",
"did",
"n't",
"begin",
"to",
"snowball",
"until",
"after",
"the",
"market",
"opened",
"on",
"Black",
"Monday",
".",
"But",
"fund",
"managers",
"say",
"they",
"'re",
"ready",
".",
"Many",
"have",
"raised",
"cash",
"levels",
",",
"which",
"act",
"as",
"a",
"buffer",
"against",
"steep",
"market",
"declines",
".",
"Mario",
"Gabelli",
",",
"for",
"instance",
",",
"holds",
"cash",
"positions",
"well",
"above",
"20",
"%",
"in",
"several",
"of",
"his",
"funds",
".",
"Windsor",
"Fund",
"'s",
"John",
"Neff",
"and",
"Mutual",
"Series",
"'",
"Michael",
"Price",
"said",
"they",
"had",
"raised",
"their",
"cash",
"levels",
"to",
"more",
"than",
"20",
"%",
"and",
"30",
"%",
",",
"respectively",
",",
"this",
"year",
".",
"Even",
"Peter",
"Lynch",
",",
"manager",
"of",
"Fidelity",
"'s",
"$",
"12.7",
"billion",
"Magellan",
"Fund",
",",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"largest",
"stock",
"fund",
",",
"built",
"up",
"cash",
"to",
"7",
"%",
"or",
"$",
"850",
"million",
".",
"One",
"reason",
"is",
"that",
"after",
"two",
"years",
"of",
"monthly",
"net",
"redemptions",
",",
"the",
"fund",
"posted",
"net",
"inflows",
"of",
"money",
"from",
"investors",
"in",
"August",
"and",
"September",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'ve",
"let",
"the",
"money",
"build",
"up",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Lynch",
"said",
",",
"who",
"added",
"that",
"he",
"has",
"had",
"trouble",
"finding",
"stocks",
"he",
"likes",
".",
"Not",
"all",
"funds",
"have",
"raised",
"cash",
"levels",
",",
"of",
"course",
".",
"As",
"a",
"group",
",",
"stock",
"funds",
"held",
"10.2",
"%",
"of",
"assets",
"in",
"cash",
"as",
"of",
"August",
",",
"the",
"latest",
"figures",
"available",
"from",
"the",
"Investment",
"Company",
"Institute",
".",
"That",
"was",
"modestly",
"higher",
"than",
"the",
"8.8",
"%",
"and",
"9.2",
"%",
"levels",
"in",
"August",
"and",
"September",
"of",
"1987",
".",
"Also",
",",
"persistent",
"redemptions",
"would",
"force",
"some",
"fund",
"managers",
"to",
"dump",
"stocks",
"to",
"raise",
"cash",
".",
"But",
"a",
"strong",
"level",
"of",
"investor",
"withdrawals",
"is",
"much",
"more",
"unlikely",
"this",
"time",
"around",
",",
"fund",
"managers",
"said",
".",
"A",
"major",
"reason",
"is",
"that",
"investors",
"already",
"have",
"sharply",
"scaled",
"back",
"their",
"purchases",
"of",
"stock",
"funds",
"since",
"Black",
"Monday",
".",
"Stock-fund",
"sales",
"have",
"rebounded",
"in",
"recent",
"months",
",",
"but",
"monthly",
"net",
"purchases",
"are",
"still",
"running",
"at",
"less",
"than",
"half",
"1987",
"levels",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"not",
"nearly",
"as",
"much",
"froth",
",",
"''",
"said",
"John",
"Bogle",
",",
"chairman",
"of",
"Vanguard",
"Group",
"Inc.",
",",
"a",
"big",
"Valley",
"Forge",
",",
"Pa.",
",",
"fund",
"company",
".",
"Many",
"fund",
"managers",
"argue",
"that",
"now",
"'s",
"the",
"time",
"to",
"buy",
".",
"Vincent",
"Bajakian",
",",
"manager",
"of",
"the",
"$",
"1.8",
"billion",
"Wellington",
"Fund",
",",
"added",
"to",
"his",
"positions",
"in",
"Bristol-Myers",
"Squibb",
",",
"Woolworth",
"and",
"Dun",
"&",
"Bradstreet",
"Friday",
".",
"And",
"today",
"he",
"'ll",
"be",
"looking",
"to",
"buy",
"drug",
"stocks",
"like",
"Eli",
"Lilly",
",",
"Pfizer",
"and",
"American",
"Home",
"Products",
"whose",
"dividend",
"yields",
"have",
"been",
"bolstered",
"by",
"stock",
"declines",
".",
"Fidelity",
"'s",
"Mr.",
"Lynch",
",",
"for",
"his",
"part",
",",
"snapped",
"up",
"Southern",
"Co.",
"shares",
"Friday",
"after",
"the",
"stock",
"got",
"hammered",
".",
"If",
"the",
"market",
"drops",
"further",
"today",
",",
"he",
"said",
"he",
"'ll",
"be",
"buying",
"blue",
"chips",
"such",
"as",
"Bristol-Myers",
"and",
"Kellogg",
".",
"``",
"If",
"they",
"croak",
"stocks",
"like",
"that",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
",",
"it",
"presents",
"an",
"opportunity",
"that",
"is",
"``",
"the",
"kind",
"of",
"thing",
"you",
"dream",
"about",
".",
"''",
"Major",
"mutual-fund",
"groups",
"said",
"phone",
"calls",
"were",
"arriving",
"at",
"twice",
"the",
"normal",
"weekend",
"pace",
"yesterday",
".",
"But",
"most",
"investors",
"were",
"seeking",
"share",
"prices",
"and",
"other",
"information",
".",
"Trading",
"volume",
"was",
"only",
"modestly",
"higher",
"than",
"normal",
".",
"Still",
",",
"fund",
"groups",
"are",
"n't",
"taking",
"any",
"chances",
".",
"They",
"hope",
"to",
"avoid",
"the",
"jammed",
"phone",
"lines",
"and",
"other",
"snags",
"that",
"infuriated",
"some",
"fund",
"investors",
"in",
"October",
"1987",
".",
"Fidelity",
"on",
"Saturday",
"opened",
"its",
"54",
"walk-in",
"investor",
"centers",
"across",
"the",
"country",
".",
"The",
"centers",
"normally",
"are",
"closed",
"through",
"the",
"weekend",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"East",
"Coast",
"centers",
"will",
"open",
"at",
"7:30",
"EDT",
"this",
"morning",
",",
"instead",
"of",
"the",
"normal",
"8:30",
".",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"Associates",
"Inc.",
"increased",
"its",
"staff",
"of",
"phone",
"representatives",
"to",
"handle",
"investor",
"requests",
".",
"The",
"Baltimore-based",
"group",
"noted",
"that",
"some",
"investors",
"moved",
"money",
"from",
"stock",
"funds",
"to",
"money-market",
"funds",
".",
"But",
"most",
"investors",
"seemed",
"to",
"be",
"``",
"in",
"an",
"information",
"mode",
"rather",
"than",
"in",
"a",
"transaction",
"mode",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Steven",
"Norwitz",
",",
"a",
"vice",
"president",
".",
"And",
"Vanguard",
",",
"among",
"other",
"groups",
",",
"said",
"it",
"was",
"adding",
"more",
"phone",
"representatives",
"today",
"to",
"help",
"investors",
"get",
"through",
".",
"In",
"an",
"unusual",
"move",
",",
"several",
"funds",
"moved",
"to",
"calm",
"investors",
"with",
"recordings",
"on",
"their",
"toll-free",
"phone",
"lines",
".",
"``",
"We",
"view",
"-LCB-",
"Friday",
"'s",
"-RCB-",
"market",
"decline",
"as",
"offering",
"us",
"a",
"buying",
"opportunity",
"as",
"long-term",
"investors",
",",
"''",
"a",
"recording",
"at",
"Gabelli",
"&",
"Co.",
"funds",
"said",
"over",
"the",
"weekend",
".",
"The",
"Janus",
"Group",
"had",
"a",
"similar",
"recording",
"for",
"investors",
".",
"Several",
"fund",
"managers",
"expect",
"a",
"rough",
"market",
"this",
"morning",
"before",
"prices",
"stabilize",
".",
"Some",
"early",
"selling",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"stem",
"from",
"investors",
"and",
"portfolio",
"managers",
"who",
"want",
"to",
"lock",
"in",
"this",
"year",
"'s",
"fat",
"profits",
".",
"Stock",
"funds",
"have",
"averaged",
"a",
"staggering",
"gain",
"of",
"25",
"%",
"through",
"September",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Lipper",
"Analytical",
"Services",
"Inc",
".",
"Elaine",
"Garzarelli",
",",
"who",
"runs",
"Shearson",
"Lehman",
"Hutton",
"Inc.",
"'s",
"$",
"335",
"million",
"Sector",
"Analysis",
"Portfolio",
",",
"predicts",
"the",
"market",
"will",
"open",
"down",
"at",
"least",
"50",
"points",
"on",
"technical",
"factors",
"and",
"``",
"some",
"panic",
"selling",
".",
"''",
"But",
"she",
"expects",
"prices",
"to",
"rebound",
"soon",
"and",
"is",
"telling",
"investors",
"she",
"expects",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
"wo",
"n't",
"decline",
"more",
"than",
"10",
"%",
"to",
"15",
"%",
"from",
"recent",
"highs",
".",
"``",
"This",
"is",
"not",
"a",
"major",
"crash",
",",
"''",
"she",
"said",
".",
"Nevertheless",
",",
"Ms.",
"Garzarelli",
"said",
"she",
"was",
"swamped",
"with",
"phone",
"calls",
"over",
"the",
"weekend",
"from",
"nervous",
"shareholders",
".",
"``",
"Half",
"of",
"them",
"are",
"really",
"scared",
"and",
"want",
"to",
"sell",
",",
"''",
"she",
"said",
",",
"``",
"but",
"I",
"'m",
"trying",
"to",
"talk",
"them",
"out",
"of",
"it",
".",
"''",
"She",
"added",
",",
"``",
"If",
"they",
"all",
"were",
"bullish",
",",
"I",
"'d",
"really",
"be",
"upset",
".",
"''",
"The",
"backdrop",
"to",
"Friday",
"'s",
"slide",
"was",
"markedly",
"different",
"from",
"that",
"of",
"the",
"October",
"1987",
"crash",
",",
"fund",
"managers",
"argue",
".",
"Two",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"unlike",
"today",
",",
"the",
"dollar",
"was",
"weak",
",",
"interest",
"rates",
"were",
"rising",
"and",
"the",
"market",
"was",
"very",
"overvalued",
",",
"they",
"say",
".",
"``",
"From",
"the",
"investors",
"'",
"standpoint",
",",
"institutions",
"and",
"individuals",
"learned",
"a",
"painful",
"lesson",
"...",
"by",
"selling",
"at",
"the",
"lows",
"''",
"on",
"Black",
"Monday",
",",
"said",
"Stephen",
"Boesel",
",",
"manager",
"of",
"the",
"$",
"580",
"million",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"Growth",
"and",
"Income",
"Fund",
".",
"This",
"time",
",",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"think",
"we",
"'ll",
"get",
"a",
"panic",
"reaction",
"."
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[
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"limited",
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"effect",
"on",
"the",
"housing",
"market",
".",
"The",
"September",
"drop",
"was",
"the",
"largest",
"since",
"a",
"19",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"January",
"1982",
",",
"but",
"monthly",
"changes",
"in",
"this",
"measure",
"are",
"even",
"less",
"reliable",
"than",
"those",
"in",
"other",
"economic",
"indicators",
".",
"Because",
"the",
"figures",
"are",
"based",
"on",
"a",
"small",
"sample",
",",
"the",
"department",
"said",
"it",
"is",
"90",
"%",
"confident",
"only",
"that",
"new-home",
"sales",
"fell",
"somewhere",
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"5",
"%",
"and",
"23",
"%",
"during",
"the",
"month",
".",
"The",
"department",
"also",
"said",
"it",
"takes",
"four",
"months",
"to",
"establish",
"a",
"trend",
".",
"So",
"far",
"this",
"year",
",",
"534,000",
"newly",
"built",
"homes",
"have",
"been",
"sold",
",",
"down",
"4.5",
"%",
"from",
"the",
"like",
"months",
"of",
"1988",
".",
"The",
"index",
"of",
"leading",
"indicators",
"got",
"a",
"major",
"boost",
"in",
"September",
"from",
"a",
"surge",
"in",
"consumer",
"expectations",
"as",
"measured",
"by",
"the",
"University",
"of",
"Michigan",
".",
"This",
"measure",
"had",
"dropped",
"sharply",
"in",
"August",
".",
"The",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"said",
"that",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"a",
"new",
"adjustment",
"to",
"the",
"formula",
"used",
"to",
"calculate",
"the",
"index",
",",
"the",
"influence",
"of",
"this",
"component",
"has",
"been",
"reduced",
".",
"Of",
"the",
"11",
"components",
"to",
"the",
"index",
",",
"only",
"three",
"others",
"rose",
"in",
"September",
":",
"the",
"money",
"supply",
",",
"the",
"length",
"of",
"the",
"average",
"work",
"week",
"and",
"stock",
"prices",
".",
"Several",
"components",
"that",
"track",
"the",
"health",
"of",
"the",
"manufacturing",
"sector",
"of",
"the",
"economy",
"turned",
"down",
"in",
"September",
".",
"These",
"include",
"new",
"orders",
"for",
"manufactured",
"consumer",
"goods",
",",
"lead",
"times",
"on",
"vendor",
"deliveries",
",",
"orders",
"for",
"new",
"plant",
"and",
"equipment",
",",
"and",
"backlogs",
"of",
"orders",
"for",
"durable",
"goods",
".",
"Meanwhile",
",",
"the",
"National",
"Association",
"of",
"Manufacturers",
"said",
"yesterday",
"a",
"recent",
"poll",
"of",
"53",
"executives",
"on",
"its",
"board",
"found",
"that",
"61",
"%",
"do",
"n't",
"expect",
"a",
"recession",
"to",
"occur",
"until",
"1991",
"or",
"later",
".",
"The",
"remainder",
"expect",
"a",
"downturn",
"to",
"begin",
"sometime",
"in",
"Although",
"manufacturers",
"often",
"are",
"quick",
"to",
"call",
"for",
"lower",
"interest",
"rates",
",",
"60",
"%",
"of",
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"executives",
"said",
"they",
"would",
"prefer",
"that",
"the",
"Fed",
"keep",
"inflation-fighting",
"as",
"its",
"top",
"priority",
"even",
"if",
"that",
"means",
"higher",
"rates",
".",
"The",
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"40",
"%",
"said",
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"Fed",
"ought",
"to",
"worry",
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"about",
"inflation",
"and",
"bring",
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"rates",
"down",
".",
"All",
"the",
"figures",
"are",
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"remove",
"usual",
"seasonal",
"patterns",
".",
"Here",
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"components",
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"Department",
"'s",
"index",
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"0.2",
"%",
"rise",
"for",
"September",
".",
"September",
",",
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"the",
"change",
"from",
"August",
",",
"are",
":",
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] |
[
"Your",
"Oct.",
"6",
"editorial",
"``",
"The",
"Ill",
"Homeless",
"''",
"referred",
"to",
"research",
"by",
"us",
"and",
"six",
"of",
"our",
"colleagues",
"that",
"was",
"reported",
"in",
"the",
"Sept.",
"8",
"issue",
"of",
"the",
"Journal",
"of",
"the",
"American",
"Medical",
"Association",
".",
"Your",
"comments",
"implied",
"we",
"had",
"discovered",
"that",
"the",
"``",
"principal",
"cause",
"''",
"of",
"homelessness",
"is",
"to",
"be",
"found",
"in",
"the",
"large",
"numbers",
"of",
"mentally",
"ill",
"and",
"substance-abusing",
"people",
"in",
"the",
"homeless",
"population",
".",
"We",
"have",
"made",
"no",
"such",
"statement",
".",
"It",
"is",
"clear",
"that",
"most",
"mentally",
"ill",
"people",
"and",
"most",
"alcoholics",
"do",
"not",
"become",
"homeless",
".",
"The",
"``",
"causes",
"''",
"of",
"homelessness",
"are",
"poorly",
"understood",
"and",
"complex",
"in",
"any",
"individual",
"case",
".",
"In",
"quoting",
"from",
"our",
"research",
"you",
"emphasized",
"the",
"high",
"prevalance",
"of",
"mental",
"illness",
"and",
"alcoholism",
".",
"You",
"did",
"not",
"note",
"that",
"the",
"homeless",
"people",
"we",
"examined",
"had",
"a",
"multitude",
"of",
"physical",
"disorders",
"in",
"addition",
"to",
"their",
"psychiatric",
"problems",
"and",
"substance",
"abuse",
".",
"They",
"suffered",
"from",
"malnutrition",
",",
"chest",
"diseases",
",",
"cardiovascular",
"disorders",
",",
"skin",
"problems",
",",
"infectious",
"diseases",
"and",
"the",
"aftereffects",
"of",
"assaults",
"and",
"rape",
".",
"Homeless",
"people",
"not",
"only",
"lack",
"safety",
",",
"privacy",
"and",
"shelter",
",",
"they",
"also",
"lack",
"the",
"elementary",
"necessities",
"of",
"nutrition",
",",
"cleanliness",
"and",
"basic",
"health",
"care",
".",
"In",
"a",
"recent",
"report",
",",
"the",
"Institute",
"of",
"Medicine",
"pointed",
"out",
"that",
"certain",
"health",
"problems",
"may",
"predispose",
"a",
"person",
"to",
"homelessness",
",",
"others",
"may",
"be",
"a",
"consequence",
"of",
"it",
",",
"and",
"a",
"third",
"category",
"is",
"composed",
"of",
"disorders",
"whose",
"treatment",
"is",
"difficult",
"or",
"impossible",
"if",
"a",
"person",
"lacks",
"adequate",
"shelter",
".",
"The",
"interactions",
"between",
"health",
"and",
"homelessness",
"are",
"complex",
",",
"defying",
"sweeping",
"generalizations",
"as",
"to",
"``",
"cause",
"''",
"or",
"``",
"effect",
".",
"''",
"If",
"we",
"look",
"to",
"the",
"future",
",",
"preventing",
"homelessness",
"is",
"an",
"important",
"objective",
".",
"This",
"will",
"require",
"us",
"to",
"develop",
"a",
"much",
"more",
"sophisticated",
"understanding",
"of",
"the",
"dynamics",
"of",
"homelessness",
"than",
"we",
"currently",
"possess",
",",
"an",
"understanding",
"that",
"can",
"be",
"developed",
"only",
"through",
"careful",
"study",
"and",
"research",
".",
"William",
"R.",
"Breakey",
"M.D.",
"Pamela",
"J.",
"Fischer",
"M.D.",
"Department",
"of",
"Psychiatry",
"Johns",
"Hopkins",
"University",
"School",
"of",
"Medicine",
"Baltimore",
"A",
"study",
"by",
"Tulane",
"Prof.",
"James",
"Wright",
"says",
"homelessness",
"is",
"due",
"to",
"a",
"complex",
"array",
"of",
"problems",
",",
"with",
"the",
"common",
"thread",
"of",
"poverty",
".",
"The",
"study",
"shows",
"that",
"nearly",
"40",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"homeless",
"population",
"is",
"made",
"up",
"of",
"women",
"and",
"children",
"and",
"that",
"only",
"25",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"homeless",
"exhibits",
"some",
"combination",
"of",
"drug",
",",
"alcohol",
"and",
"mental",
"problems",
".",
"According",
"to",
"Dr.",
"Wright",
",",
"homelessness",
"is",
"``",
"simultaneously",
"a",
"housing",
"problem",
",",
"an",
"employment",
"problem",
",",
"a",
"demographic",
"problem",
",",
"a",
"problem",
"of",
"social",
"disaffiliation",
",",
"a",
"mental",
"health",
"problem",
",",
"a",
"family",
"violence",
"problem",
",",
"a",
"problem",
"created",
"by",
"the",
"cutbacks",
"in",
"social",
"welfare",
"spending",
",",
"a",
"problem",
"resulting",
"from",
"the",
"decay",
"of",
"the",
"traditional",
"nuclear",
"family",
",",
"and",
"a",
"problem",
"intimately",
"connected",
"to",
"the",
"recent",
"increase",
"in",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"persons",
"living",
"below",
"the",
"poverty",
"level",
".",
"''",
"Leighton",
"E.",
"Cluff",
"M.D.",
"President",
"Robert",
"Wood",
"Johnson",
"Foundation",
"Princeton",
",",
"N.J",
".",
"To",
"quote",
"the",
"highly",
"regarded",
"director",
"of",
"a",
"privately",
"funded",
"drop-in",
"center",
"for",
"the",
"homeless",
"in",
"New",
"York",
":",
"``",
"If",
"you",
"'re",
"homeless",
",",
"you",
"do",
"n't",
"sleep",
"for",
"fear",
"of",
"being",
"robbed",
"or",
"murdered",
".",
"After",
"your",
"first",
"three",
"weeks",
"of",
"sleep",
"deprivation",
",",
"you",
"'re",
"scarcely",
"in",
"touch",
"with",
"reality",
"any",
"more",
";",
"without",
"psychiatric",
"treatment",
",",
"you",
"may",
"well",
"be",
"unable",
"to",
"fend",
"for",
"yourself",
"ever",
"again",
".",
"''",
"Some",
"of",
"the",
"homeless",
",",
"obviously",
",",
"had",
"pre-existing",
"mental",
"illness",
"or",
"addiction",
".",
"But",
"many",
"others",
"have",
"fallen",
"through",
"cracks",
"in",
"the",
"economy",
"into",
"the",
"grim",
",",
"brutal",
"world",
"of",
"our",
"city",
"streets",
".",
"Once",
"there",
",",
"what",
"ways",
"of",
"escape",
"are",
"open",
"to",
"them",
"other",
"than",
"drink",
",",
"drugs",
"or",
"insanity",
"?",
"Maxwell",
"R.D.",
"Vos",
"Brooklyn",
",",
"N.Y",
".",
"You",
"dismiss",
"as",
"``",
"sentimental",
"''",
"the",
"view",
"that",
"the",
"reduction",
"of",
"federal",
"housing-assistance",
"programs",
"by",
"77",
"%",
"might",
"have",
"played",
"a",
"significant",
"role",
"in",
"the",
"increased",
"number",
"of",
"men",
"and",
"women",
"sleeping",
"on",
"our",
"city",
"streets",
"during",
"the",
"Reagan-Bush",
"years",
".",
"There",
"is",
"no",
"sign",
"that",
"you",
"bothered",
"to",
"consider",
"the",
"inverse",
"of",
"your",
"logic",
":",
"namely",
",",
"that",
"mental",
"illness",
"and",
"substance",
"abuse",
"might",
"be",
"to",
"some",
"degree",
"consequences",
"rather",
"than",
"causes",
"of",
"homelessness",
".",
"Your",
"research",
"stopped",
"when",
"a",
"convenient",
"assertion",
"could",
"be",
"made",
".",
"Robert",
"S.",
"Jenkins",
"Cambridge",
",",
"Mass",
".",
"Of",
"the",
"approximately",
"200",
"sponsors",
"of",
"the",
"recent",
"march",
"in",
"Washington",
"for",
"the",
"homeless",
",",
"you",
"chose",
"to",
"cite",
"such",
"groups",
"as",
"the",
"National",
"Association",
"of",
"Home",
"Builders",
"and",
"the",
"International",
"Union",
"of",
"Bricklayers",
"and",
"Allied",
"Craftsmen",
",",
"insinuating",
"that",
"the",
"march",
"got",
"its",
"major",
"support",
"from",
"self-serving",
"groups",
"that",
"``",
"know",
"a",
"good",
"thing",
"when",
"they",
"see",
"it",
",",
"''",
"and",
"that",
"the",
"crusade",
"was",
"based",
"on",
"greed",
"or",
"the",
"profit",
"motive",
".",
"But",
"is",
"n't",
"the",
"desire",
"for",
"profit",
"the",
"driving",
"force",
"behind",
"those",
"who",
"subscribe",
"to",
",",
"and",
"advertise",
"in",
",",
"your",
"paper",
"?",
"Why",
"did",
"n't",
"you",
"mention",
"the",
"YMCA",
"or",
"the",
"YWCA",
"or",
"Catholic",
"Charities",
"USA",
"or",
"a",
"hundred",
"other",
"nonprofit",
"organizations",
"that",
"participated",
"in",
"the",
"march",
"?",
"As",
"for",
"the",
"findings",
"on",
"the",
"203",
"Baltimore",
"homeless",
"who",
"underwent",
"psychiatric",
"examinations",
",",
"I",
"suggest",
"you",
"conduct",
"your",
"own",
"survey",
".",
"Choose",
"203",
"business",
"executives",
",",
"including",
",",
"perhaps",
",",
"someone",
"from",
"your",
"own",
"staff",
",",
"and",
"put",
"them",
"out",
"on",
"the",
"streets",
",",
"to",
"be",
"deprived",
"for",
"one",
"month",
"of",
"their",
"homes",
",",
"families",
"and",
"income",
".",
"I",
"would",
"predict",
"that",
"within",
"a",
"short",
"time",
"most",
"of",
"them",
"would",
"find",
"Thunderbird",
"a",
"satisfactory",
"substitute",
"for",
"Chivas",
"Regal",
"and",
"that",
"their",
"``",
"normal",
"''",
"phobias",
",",
"anxieties",
",",
"depressions",
"and",
"substance",
"abuse",
"would",
"increase",
"dramatically",
".",
"Ruth",
"K.",
"Nelson",
"Cullowhee",
",",
"N.C",
"."
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[
"Environmental",
"concerns",
"are",
"beginning",
"to",
"have",
"as",
"much",
"influence",
"in",
"oil-industry",
"spending",
"plans",
"as",
"the",
"price",
"of",
"crude",
"does",
".",
"In",
"the",
"wake",
"of",
"the",
"Exxon",
"Valdez",
"spill",
"in",
"March",
",",
"new",
"governmental",
"drilling",
"bans",
"are",
"sharply",
"curtailing",
"exploration",
"in",
"promising",
"locations",
"offshore",
"and",
"in",
"Alaska",
".",
"At",
"the",
"same",
"time",
",",
"moves",
"toward",
"tighter",
"air-quality",
"standards",
"are",
"spurring",
"interest",
"in",
"lighter",
"or",
"alternative",
"fuels",
"that",
"do",
"n't",
"pollute",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"fuel",
"refined",
"from",
"``",
"heavy",
"''",
"crudes",
",",
"generally",
"high",
"in",
"sulfur",
".",
"Over",
"the",
"years",
",",
"the",
"world",
"'s",
"stream",
"of",
"oil",
"has",
"been",
"growing",
"heavier",
".",
"So",
"the",
"scramble",
"is",
"on",
"for",
"lighter",
"crudes",
"globally",
",",
"and",
"for",
"natural",
"gas",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"Recently",
"Saudi",
"Arabia",
"and",
"Venezuela",
",",
"traditional",
"heavy-crude",
"producers",
",",
"have",
"boasted",
"of",
"new",
"finds",
"of",
"light",
",",
"low-sulfur",
"oil",
"by",
"their",
"national",
"oil",
"companies",
".",
"Venezuela",
"has",
"also",
"earmarked",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"in",
"new",
"money",
"for",
"light-crude",
"exploration",
".",
"And",
"some",
"oil",
"companies",
"are",
"trying",
"to",
"lock",
"in",
"future",
"supplies",
".",
"Typical",
"is",
"Ente",
"Nazionale",
"Idrocarburi",
",",
"Italy",
"'s",
"state-owned",
"energy",
"company",
",",
"which",
"not",
"long",
"ago",
"acquired",
"through",
"its",
"AGIP",
"oil",
"subsidiary",
"a",
"5",
"%",
"share",
"in",
"the",
"consortium",
"accounting",
"for",
"half",
"of",
"Nigeria",
"'s",
"oil",
"output",
".",
"AGIP",
"already",
"has",
"an",
"oil",
"stake",
"in",
"Libya",
".",
"Both",
"countries",
"produce",
"high-quality",
",",
"low-sulfur",
"crudes",
"especially",
"suited",
"to",
"making",
"high-octane",
"motor",
"fuel",
"at",
"minimum",
"refining",
"cost",
".",
"Franco",
"Reviglio",
",",
"ENI",
"chairman",
",",
"looks",
"for",
"sweeping",
"structural",
"change",
"in",
"the",
"oil",
"industry",
"--",
"he",
"calls",
"it",
"a",
"``",
"revolution",
"''",
"requiring",
"huge",
"investments",
"--",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"environmental",
"issues",
".",
"He",
"made",
"a",
"special",
"trip",
"to",
"examine",
"U.S.",
"environmental",
"trends",
"because",
"they",
"are",
"often",
"followed",
"in",
"Europe",
".",
"ENI",
"needs",
"to",
"know",
"what",
"'s",
"coming",
"as",
"it",
"prepares",
"to",
"spend",
"some",
"$",
"1.3",
"billion",
"on",
"upgrading",
"its",
"refineries",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"Oil",
"companies",
"world-wide",
"will",
"have",
"``",
"to",
"spend",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"money",
"for",
"the",
"cleaner",
"fuels",
"that",
"will",
"be",
"required",
",",
"''",
"says",
"John",
"H.",
"Lichtblau",
",",
"the",
"president",
"of",
"the",
"Petroleum",
"Industry",
"Research",
"Foundation",
".",
"It",
"will",
"go",
"for",
"work",
"ranging",
"from",
"refinery",
"modification",
"to",
"changes",
"in",
"the",
"distribution",
"system",
",",
"including",
"the",
"way",
"service",
"stations",
"pump",
"fuel",
"into",
"cars",
".",
"In",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"the",
"search",
"for",
"oil",
"had",
"been",
"headed",
"toward",
"environmentally",
"sensitive",
"areas",
"believed",
"to",
"have",
"vast",
"reserves",
".",
"Alaska",
"'s",
"Arctic",
"National",
"Wildlife",
"Refuge",
"alone",
"is",
"thought",
"to",
"hide",
"more",
"than",
"three",
"billion",
"barrels",
"of",
"oil",
".",
"Until",
"the",
"tanker",
"spill",
",",
"Big",
"Oil",
"was",
"slowly",
"convincing",
"authorities",
"it",
"could",
"safely",
"produce",
"from",
"such",
"places",
".",
"Now",
"the",
"wildlife",
"refuge",
"has",
"been",
"closed",
"to",
"the",
"industry",
",",
"possibly",
"for",
"years",
".",
"Similarly",
",",
"a",
"group",
"of",
"companies",
"led",
"by",
"Chevron",
"Corp.",
"has",
"been",
"unable",
"to",
"pump",
"oil",
"found",
"off",
"the",
"California",
"coast",
"in",
"the",
"early",
"1980s",
".",
"A",
"huge",
"production",
"system",
"built",
"in",
"the",
"sea",
"off",
"Santa",
"Barbara",
"and",
"ashore",
"is",
"sitting",
"idle",
".",
"But",
"the",
"push",
"for",
"cleaner",
"fuels",
"is",
"increasing",
"the",
"attractiveness",
"of",
"natural",
"gas",
".",
"More",
"than",
"half",
"the",
"domestic",
"drilling",
"now",
"under",
"way",
"is",
"for",
"gas",
",",
"partly",
"on",
"the",
"assumption",
"that",
"demand",
"will",
"rise",
"for",
"a",
"fuel",
"that",
"is",
"cleaner",
"to",
"burn",
"than",
"either",
"oil",
"or",
"coal",
".",
"Activity",
"has",
"revived",
"in",
"the",
"largest",
"U.S.",
"gas-producing",
"regions",
",",
"such",
"as",
"the",
"Gulf",
"of",
"Mexico",
".",
"Santa",
"Fe",
"International",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"is",
"owned",
"by",
"Kuwait",
"(",
"and",
"is",
"n't",
"related",
"to",
"Santa",
"Fe",
"Southern",
"Pacific",
"'s",
"unit",
")",
",",
"is",
"stepping",
"up",
"development",
"of",
"a",
"well",
"off",
"Texas",
"'",
"Matagorda",
"Island",
"where",
"it",
"found",
"gas",
"in",
"1987",
".",
"``",
"We",
"could",
"have",
"sat",
"on",
"it",
"longer",
",",
"but",
"the",
"impetus",
"is",
"to",
"get",
"the",
"gas",
"to",
"the",
"marketplace",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Richard",
"Poole",
",",
"senior",
"scout",
"for",
"Santa",
"Fe",
"International",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"trying",
"to",
"get",
"it",
"on",
"line",
"as",
"soon",
"as",
"possible",
"now",
".",
"''",
"This",
"month",
",",
"Exxon",
"Corp.",
"announced",
"plans",
"for",
"a",
"400-day",
"project",
"drilling",
"for",
"gas",
"about",
"five",
"miles",
"underground",
"in",
"the",
"Anadarko",
"Basin",
"of",
"western",
"Oklahoma",
"--",
"the",
"deepest",
"drilling",
"project",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"Exxon",
"will",
"use",
"a",
"Parker",
"Drilling",
"Co.",
"rig",
"built",
"in",
"1981",
"that",
"can",
"go",
"down",
"9",
"1/2",
"miles",
"."
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[
"CHICAGO",
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".",
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"losses",
",",
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"options",
"customers",
"and",
"professional",
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"options",
"and",
"the",
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"were",
"left",
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"losses",
",",
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".",
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"the",
"highly",
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",",
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".",
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",",
"options",
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"Friday",
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"stuck",
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"also",
"were",
"several",
"times",
"larger",
"than",
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"stock",
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".",
"Jeffrey",
"Miller",
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"Tabak",
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",",
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".",
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"little",
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".",
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",",
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"no",
"choice",
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"prices",
"--",
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"a",
"substantial",
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"latest",
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"a",
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",",
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"of",
"huge",
"losses",
".",
"Making",
"matters",
"worse",
"was",
"the",
"fact",
"that",
"late",
"Friday",
"afternoon",
"the",
"CBOE",
"halted",
"stock-index",
"options",
"trading",
"in",
"step",
"with",
"the",
"Chicago",
"Mercantile",
"Exchange",
"'s",
"halt",
"in",
"stock-index",
"futures",
".",
"But",
"while",
"the",
"Merc",
"reopened",
"a",
"half",
"hour",
"later",
",",
"the",
"CBOE",
"remained",
"closed",
",",
"leaving",
"many",
"options",
"traders",
"unable",
"to",
"make",
"trades",
"that",
"might",
"have",
"reduced",
"the",
"losses",
".",
"CBOE",
"Chairman",
"Alger",
"``",
"Duke",
"''",
"Chapman",
",",
"said",
"that",
",",
"unlike",
"the",
"futures",
"market",
",",
"the",
"options",
"exchange",
"has",
"to",
"open",
"in",
"a",
"rotation",
"that",
"allows",
"each",
"different",
"options",
"series",
"to",
"trade",
".",
"Exchange",
"officials",
"reasoned",
"that",
"they",
"would",
"n't",
"have",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"make",
"such",
"a",
"rotation",
"with",
"the",
"time",
"remaining",
"Friday",
"afternoon",
",",
"and",
"with",
"the",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"on",
"the",
"verge",
"of",
"closing",
"for",
"a",
"second",
"and",
"final",
"time",
",",
"the",
"CBOE",
"reasoned",
"that",
"its",
"best",
"course",
"was",
"to",
"remain",
"closed",
".",
"The",
"damage",
"was",
"so",
"bad",
"at",
"Fossett",
"Corp.",
",",
"an",
"options",
"trading",
"firm",
"here",
",",
"that",
"it",
"was",
"forced",
"to",
"transfer",
"its",
"accounts",
"to",
"First",
"Options",
"of",
"Chicago",
",",
"a",
"unit",
"of",
"Continental",
"Bank",
"Corp.",
",",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"options",
"trading",
"losses",
".",
"Fosset",
"so",
"far",
"is",
"the",
"only",
"member",
"of",
"a",
"financial",
"exchange",
"to",
"be",
"forced",
"to",
"be",
"taken",
"over",
"by",
"another",
"firm",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"Friday",
"'s",
"rout",
".",
"Fossett",
"still",
"had",
"several",
"million",
"dollars",
"in",
"capital",
"left",
"after",
"Friday",
"'s",
"close",
"of",
"trading",
",",
"but",
"not",
"enough",
"that",
"regulators",
",",
"worried",
"about",
"another",
"potential",
"market",
"plunge",
"yesterday",
",",
"would",
"let",
"it",
"reopen",
"for",
"trading",
",",
"options",
"exchange",
"officials",
"said",
".",
"Thus",
",",
"in",
"an",
"unprecedented",
"arrangement",
"underscoring",
"the",
"seriousness",
"of",
"the",
"transfer",
",",
"the",
"CBOE",
",",
"the",
"American",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
"and",
"the",
"Options",
"Clearing",
"Corp.",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"the",
"firm",
"'s",
"owner",
",",
"Stephen",
"Fossett",
",",
"put",
"up",
"a",
"total",
"of",
"$",
"50",
"million",
"to",
"guarantee",
"the",
"customer",
"positions",
"being",
"transferred",
"to",
"the",
"bank",
"holding",
"company",
"subsidiary",
"in",
"case",
"the",
"market",
"plunged",
"again",
"yesterday",
".",
"S.",
"Waite",
"Rawls",
"III",
",",
"vice",
"chairman",
"of",
"Continental",
"Bank",
",",
"First",
"Options",
"'",
"parent",
"company",
",",
"said",
"the",
"firm",
"took",
"on",
"about",
"160",
"accounts",
"formerly",
"held",
"by",
"Fossett",
",",
"almost",
"all",
"of",
"them",
"belonging",
"to",
"professional",
"floor",
"traders",
".",
"``",
"Steve",
"and",
"his",
"firm",
"were",
"still",
"worth",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"money",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Rawls",
"said",
".",
"``",
"A",
"package",
"of",
"credit",
"support",
"was",
"put",
"together",
"--",
"including",
"the",
"assets",
"of",
"Steve",
"and",
"his",
"firm",
".",
"''",
"The",
"bailout",
"was",
"cobbled",
"together",
"over",
"the",
"weekend",
",",
"with",
"officials",
"from",
"the",
"Federal",
"Reserve",
"Board",
",",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
",",
"Comptroller",
"of",
"the",
"Currency",
"and",
"Treasury",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"the",
"options",
"exchanges",
".",
"``",
"It",
"was",
"great",
"to",
"have",
"the",
"luxury",
"of",
"time",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Rawls",
"said",
".",
"At",
"one",
"point",
",",
"an",
"options",
"industry",
"official",
"had",
"to",
"talk",
"the",
"Federal",
"Reserve",
"Bank",
"of",
"Chicago",
"'s",
"night",
"watchman",
"into",
"giving",
"him",
"the",
"home",
"phone",
"number",
"of",
"Silas",
"Keene",
",",
"Chicago",
"Fed",
"president",
".",
"First",
"Options",
"did",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
"put",
"any",
"money",
"into",
"the",
"bailout",
".",
"Yesterday",
"'s",
"rally",
"in",
"the",
"stock",
",",
"futures",
"and",
"options",
"markets",
"led",
"CBOE",
"and",
"Amex",
"officials",
"to",
"conclude",
"that",
"the",
"$",
"50",
"million",
"in",
"guarantees",
"almost",
"certainly",
"wo",
"n't",
"need",
"to",
"be",
"tapped",
"by",
"First",
"Options",
".",
"The",
"Fossett",
"firm",
"had",
"some",
"losses",
"and",
"liquidity",
"problems",
"during",
"the",
"October",
"1987",
"crash",
"as",
"well",
",",
"Mr.",
"Rawls",
"said",
".",
"A",
"federal",
"official",
"said",
"that",
"Continental",
"Bank",
"worked",
"with",
"securities",
"and",
"banking",
"regulators",
"over",
"the",
"weekend",
"to",
"fashion",
"the",
"Fossett",
"bailout",
",",
"but",
"that",
"conditions",
"were",
"n't",
"dictated",
"by",
"those",
"agencies",
".",
"``",
"It",
"was",
"their",
"business",
"decision",
",",
"''",
"the",
"official",
"said",
".",
"Officials",
"at",
"Options",
"Clearing",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"processes",
"all",
"options",
"trades",
"for",
"U.S.",
"exchanges",
",",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"$",
"50",
"million",
"guarantee",
"was",
"unprecedented",
",",
"but",
"was",
"necessary",
"to",
"help",
"insure",
"the",
"integrity",
"of",
"the",
"options",
"markets",
".",
"``",
"It",
"was",
"an",
"extraordinary",
"situation",
"that",
"needed",
"extraordinary",
"steps",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Paul",
"Stevens",
",",
"OCC",
"president",
"and",
"chief",
"operating",
"officer",
".",
"Mr.",
"Stevens",
"declined",
"to",
"give",
"the",
"specific",
"contributions",
"to",
"the",
"$",
"50",
"million",
"guarantee",
"from",
"each",
"participant",
".",
"But",
"CBOE",
"and",
"Amex",
"officials",
"said",
"that",
"Options",
"Clearing",
"Corp.",
"contributed",
"$",
"20",
"million",
"to",
"the",
"guarantee",
",",
"the",
"CBOE",
"put",
"up",
"$",
"8",
"million",
",",
"the",
"Amex",
"added",
"$",
"4",
"million",
"and",
"$",
"18",
"million",
"came",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Fossett",
"'s",
"own",
"assets",
".",
"Mr.",
"Fossett",
"could",
"n't",
"be",
"reached",
"to",
"comment",
"."
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"Jocelyn",
"Tomkin",
"Astronomy",
"Department",
"University",
"of"
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[
"Economist",
"David",
"N.",
"Laband",
"'s",
"Sept.",
"27",
"editorial-page",
"article",
",",
"``",
"In",
"Hugo",
"'s",
"Path",
",",
"a",
"Man-Made",
"Disaster",
",",
"''",
"decries",
"the",
"control",
"of",
"price",
"gouging",
",",
"swiftly",
"ordered",
"by",
"South",
"Carolina",
"'s",
"governor",
"after",
"Hurricane",
"Hugo",
".",
"According",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
",",
"``",
"screaming",
"''",
"for",
"price",
"controls",
"occurs",
"when",
"income",
"redistribution",
"``",
"threatens",
"to",
"hit",
"home",
".",
"''",
"To",
"be",
"sure",
",",
"the",
"threat",
"has",
"hit",
"home",
"down",
"here",
".",
"Yet",
"in",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"'s",
"rehash",
"of",
"free-market",
"logic",
",",
"human",
"greed",
"and",
"self-interest",
"are",
"the",
"only",
"permissible",
"psychological",
"reactions",
".",
"Allowing",
"uncontrolled",
"prices",
"for",
"necessities",
"would",
"indeed",
"shorten",
"the",
"lines",
"at",
"stores",
",",
"as",
"he",
"contends",
".",
"But",
"not",
"because",
"resources",
"are",
"going",
"to",
"their",
"most",
"efficient",
"use",
",",
"leaving",
"scarce",
"goods",
"``",
"allocated",
"to",
"those",
"buyers",
"who",
"place",
"the",
"highest",
"value",
"on",
"them",
".",
"''",
"Rather",
",",
"lines",
"would",
"diminish",
"because",
"at",
"higher",
"prices",
"many",
"victims",
"could",
"not",
"afford",
"necessities",
"such",
"as",
"food",
"and",
"medical",
"supplies",
".",
"It",
"is",
"inhumane",
"to",
"imply",
"that",
"a",
"poor",
",",
"unemployed",
"woman",
"can",
"not",
"receive",
"immediate",
"relief",
"for",
"her",
"family",
"at",
"fair",
"prices",
"because",
"she",
"does",
"not",
"have",
"as",
"much",
"to",
"protect",
"as",
"a",
"rich",
"family",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
"essential",
"relief",
"supplies",
"such",
"as",
"ice",
"must",
"be",
"distributed",
"throughout",
"the",
"population",
"because",
"of",
"potential",
"health",
"problems",
"from",
"spoiled",
"food",
"and",
"possible",
"outbreak",
"of",
"disease",
".",
"Such",
"spillover",
"effects",
"give",
"the",
"state",
"a",
"right",
"to",
"intervene",
"in",
"the",
"marketplace",
"and",
"temporarily",
"coordinate",
"allocation",
"of",
"resources",
".",
"Fortunately",
",",
"volunteers",
"and",
"charities",
"are",
"not",
"motivated",
"by",
"self-interest",
",",
"but",
"by",
"altruism",
".",
"Why",
"should",
"they",
"have",
"to",
"co-exist",
"with",
"opportunists",
"rushing",
"in",
"to",
"turn",
"a",
"quick",
"profit",
"?",
"These",
"latter-day",
"scalawags",
"would",
"be",
"ill-advised",
"to",
"take",
"advantage",
"of",
"the",
"situation",
",",
"if",
"they",
"ever",
"expect",
"to",
"face",
"the",
"people",
"of",
"South",
"Carolina",
"again",
".",
"The",
"government",
"is",
"actually",
"protecting",
"avaricious",
"ice-baggers",
"and",
"other",
"profiteers",
"who",
"can",
"not",
"see",
"beyond",
"their",
"own",
"short-term",
"gain",
".",
"South",
"Carolina",
"deserves",
"an",
"A",
"for",
"its",
"quick",
"and",
"timely",
"relief",
"efforts",
".",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
",",
"meanwhile",
",",
"gets",
"an",
"A",
"for",
"his",
"rote",
"recital",
"of",
"economic-efficiency",
"arguments",
".",
"Give",
"him",
"an",
"F",
"for",
"his",
"failure",
"to",
"understand",
"the",
"ethics",
"of",
"economic",
"equity",
".",
"Signed",
"by",
"25",
"students",
"Of",
"Douglas",
"Woodward",
"'s",
"Honors",
"Economics",
"Class",
",",
"University",
"of",
"South",
"Carolina",
"Columbia",
",",
"S.C",
".",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"gives",
"us",
"an",
"idea",
"why",
"economists",
"'",
"predictions",
"are",
"usually",
"wrong",
".",
"They",
"set",
"up",
"absurd",
"situations",
",",
"detached",
"from",
"reality",
",",
"and",
"then",
"try",
"to",
"reason",
"from",
"them",
".",
"I",
"'m",
"surprised",
"he",
"did",
"n't",
"advocate",
"letting",
"people",
"loot",
",",
"since",
"that",
"behavior",
"can",
"also",
"be",
"foreseen",
"in",
"a",
"disaster",
"and",
"``",
"every",
"individual",
"has",
"an",
"incentive",
"to",
"alter",
"the",
"distribution",
"of",
"income",
"in",
"his",
"favor",
".",
"''",
"Price",
"controls",
"were",
"``",
"so",
"fervently",
"embraced",
"by",
"Charleston",
"''",
"because",
"price",
"gouging",
"in",
"this",
"situation",
"is",
"equivalent",
"to",
"looting",
".",
"Suzanne",
"Foster",
"Galax",
",",
"Va",
".",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"described",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"more",
"insidious",
"threats",
"we",
"face",
"when",
"dealing",
"with",
"disasters",
"such",
"as",
"Hugo",
"--",
"anti-profiteering",
"ordinances",
"such",
"as",
"that",
"by",
"the",
"Charleston",
"City",
"Council",
"as",
"it",
"thrashed",
"about",
"trying",
"to",
"Do",
"Something",
".",
"Since",
"he",
"concentrated",
"on",
"the",
"economic",
"folly",
"of",
"such",
"ordinances",
",",
"he",
"did",
"n't",
"mention",
"certain",
"other",
"of",
"their",
"effects",
".",
"They",
"divert",
"law-enforcement",
"resources",
"at",
"a",
"time",
"they",
"are",
"most",
"needed",
"for",
"protecting",
"lives",
"and",
"property",
".",
"Also",
",",
"rather",
"than",
"increase",
"supplies",
",",
"they",
"reduce",
"them",
"and",
"encourage",
"hoarding",
".",
"And",
"they",
",",
"or",
"even",
"the",
"prospect",
"of",
"them",
",",
"discourage",
"disaster",
"preparedness",
"in",
"the",
"form",
"of",
"speculative",
"advance",
"stocking",
"of",
"supplies",
"by",
"merchants",
".",
"N.",
"Joseph",
"Potts",
"Miami",
"Lakes",
",",
"Fla",
".",
"Would",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"also",
"suggest",
"that",
"the",
"Red",
"Cross",
",",
"Salvation",
"Army",
",",
"military",
"units",
",",
"police",
",",
"fire",
"departments",
",",
"rescue",
"units",
"and",
"individual",
"citizens",
"cease",
"their",
"efforts",
"to",
"assist",
"Hugo",
"'s",
"victims",
"because",
"they",
"interfere",
"with",
"his",
"concept",
"of",
"the",
"``",
"free",
"market",
"''",
"?",
"What",
"about",
"those",
"caring",
"people",
"all",
"over",
"the",
"country",
"who",
"are",
"donating",
"food",
",",
"water",
"and",
"other",
"necessities",
"of",
"life",
"to",
"these",
"people",
"who",
"could",
"be",
"any",
"of",
"us",
"?",
"Should",
"they",
",",
"too",
",",
"stop",
"``",
"messing",
"with",
"''",
"his",
"free",
"market",
"?",
"Maybe",
"he",
"thinks",
"they",
"should",
"also",
"sell",
"to",
"the",
"highest",
"bidder",
".",
"And",
"what",
"about",
"insurance",
"firms",
"?",
"Should",
"they",
"be",
"required",
"to",
"pay",
"claims",
"based",
"on",
"exorbitant",
"costs",
"for",
"labor",
"and",
"materials",
"?",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"should",
"beware",
",",
"since",
"he",
"lives",
"in",
"South",
"Carolina",
".",
"In",
"a",
"free",
"market",
",",
"his",
"insurance",
"rates",
"can",
"be",
"raised",
"to",
"recover",
"insurance-company",
"losses",
".",
"John",
"W.",
"Rush",
"Marietta",
",",
"Ga",
".",
"Having",
"been",
"through",
"several",
"tornadoes",
"and",
"hurricanes",
",",
"I",
"have",
"a",
"different",
"perspective",
".",
"Mine",
"comes",
"from",
"seeing",
"thriving",
"communities",
"devastated",
"--",
"but",
"only",
"temporarily",
".",
"Their",
"recovery",
"came",
"surprisingly",
"fast",
",",
"and",
"always",
"with",
"the",
"help",
"of",
"neighbors",
".",
"The",
"shock",
"of",
"seeing",
"homes",
"destroyed",
"and",
"city",
"services",
"disrupted",
"may",
"cause",
"some",
"to",
"confuse",
"priorities",
"such",
"as",
"the",
"true",
"economic",
"value",
"of",
"a",
"freezer",
"full",
"of",
"meat",
".",
"In",
"Texas",
"after",
"Hurricane",
"Alicia",
",",
"major",
"grocery",
"chains",
"used",
"their",
"truck",
"fleets",
"to",
"ship",
"essential",
"goods",
"to",
"Houston",
",",
"no",
"gouging",
",",
"just",
"good",
"will",
".",
"Tom",
"Mongan",
"Victoria",
",",
"Texas",
"We",
"here",
"in",
"the",
"affected",
"areas",
"were",
"dazzled",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"'s",
"analysis",
"of",
"time",
"values",
"and",
"his",
"comparisons",
"of",
"effectiveness",
"concerning",
"research",
"and",
"development",
".",
"His",
"theoretical",
"approach",
"and",
"its",
"publication",
"in",
"this",
"venerable",
"paper",
"are",
"no",
"doubt",
"a",
"noteworthy",
"accomplishment",
"for",
"him",
".",
"Too",
"bad",
"theory",
"fails",
"in",
"practice",
".",
"We",
"consumers",
"tend",
"to",
"have",
"long",
"memories",
".",
"The",
"businesses",
"subscribing",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
"'s",
"effective",
"price",
"system",
"will",
"be",
"remembered",
"when",
"normalcy",
"returns",
".",
"Perhaps",
",",
"considering",
"the",
"value",
"of",
"our",
"time",
",",
"we",
"will",
"be",
"unable",
"to",
"patronize",
"their",
"establishments",
"in",
"the",
"post-Hugo",
"era",
".",
"I",
"have",
"a",
"question",
"for",
"Mr.",
"Laband",
":",
"How",
"do",
"I",
"explain",
"to",
"the",
"single",
"mother",
"of",
"three",
"standing",
"in",
"line",
"next",
"to",
"me",
"for",
"the",
"past",
"three",
"hours",
"that",
"the",
"two",
"bags",
"of",
"ice",
"she",
"needs",
"to",
"keep",
"her",
"children",
"'s",
"food",
"edible",
"will",
"take",
"her",
"last",
"$",
"20",
"?",
"I",
"'m",
"sure",
"she",
"'ll",
"appreciate",
"what",
"an",
"efficient",
"reaction",
"to",
"her",
"problems",
"the",
"price",
"system",
"has",
"created",
".",
"Chris",
"Edgar",
"Myrtle",
"Beach",
",",
"S.C",
"."
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[
"Stoneridge",
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".",
"The",
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"Hills",
",",
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"8.75",
"a",
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"record",
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"26",
".",
"The",
"offering",
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"expire",
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".",
"The",
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"debt",
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",",
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".",
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"the",
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"an",
"option",
"to",
"increase",
"the",
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"by",
"up",
"to",
"350,000",
"shares",
"."
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[
"The",
"rationale",
"for",
"responding",
"to",
"your",
"customers",
"'",
"needs",
"faster",
"than",
"the",
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"clear",
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"Your",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"a",
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"variable",
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".",
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",",
"for",
"many",
",",
"managing",
"speed",
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"come",
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".",
"``",
"Most",
"of",
"us",
"grew",
"up",
"believing",
"in",
"the",
"axioms",
"`",
"Haste",
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"'",
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"`",
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",",
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"to",
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"the",
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",",
"''",
"says",
"Dean",
"Cassell",
",",
"vice",
"president",
"for",
"product",
"integrity",
"at",
"Grumman",
"Corp",
".",
"``",
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"in",
"the",
"real",
"world",
",",
"you",
"learn",
"that",
"speed",
"and",
"quality",
"are",
"not",
"a",
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".",
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"is",
"a",
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"--",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"things",
"we",
"must",
"deliver",
"to",
"satisfy",
"customers",
".",
"''",
"Companies",
"that",
"actually",
"market",
"speed",
"as",
"part",
"of",
"their",
"service",
"train",
"their",
"managers",
"to",
"lead",
"and",
"participate",
"in",
"teams",
"that",
"increase",
"speed",
"and",
"improve",
"quality",
"in",
"everyday",
"operations",
".",
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"learn",
"to",
"spot",
"opportunities",
"to",
"increase",
"customer",
"satisfaction",
"through",
"speed",
",",
"and",
"shift",
"some",
"responsibility",
"for",
"analyzing",
",",
"improving",
"and",
"streamlining",
"work",
"processes",
"from",
"themselves",
"to",
"teams",
"of",
"employees",
".",
"One",
"team",
"at",
"the",
"Federal",
"Express",
"Ground",
"Operations",
"station",
"in",
"Natick",
",",
"Mass.",
",",
"focused",
"on",
"a",
"particularly",
"time-sensitive",
"operation",
":",
"the",
"morning",
"package",
"sort",
".",
"Every",
"morning",
",",
"tractor-trailer",
"trucks",
"arrive",
"at",
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"Natick",
"Ground",
"Station",
"from",
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"'s",
"Logan",
"Airport",
",",
"carrying",
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"'s",
"package",
"load",
".",
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"peak",
"periods",
"that",
"load",
"may",
"include",
"4,000",
"pieces",
".",
"The",
"packages",
"must",
"be",
"sorted",
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"distributed",
"to",
"smaller",
"vans",
"for",
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",",
"so",
"couriers",
"can",
"be",
"on",
"the",
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".",
"No",
"customer",
"is",
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"the",
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"package",
"sort",
",",
"but",
"the",
"process",
"is",
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"critical",
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"customer",
"satisfaction",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"committed",
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"deliver",
"the",
"customer",
"'s",
"package",
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"stated",
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"10:30",
",",
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"Glenn",
"Mortimer",
",",
"a",
"Federal",
"Express",
"courier",
"who",
"led",
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"team",
".",
"``",
"The",
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"our",
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"road",
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"morning",
",",
"the",
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"is",
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"us",
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".",
"''",
"Following",
"a",
"problem-solving",
"formula",
"used",
"by",
"teams",
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"Federal",
"Express",
",",
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"routine",
",",
"carefully",
"noting",
"where",
"and",
"when",
"the",
"work",
"group",
"'s",
"resources",
"were",
"used",
"effectively",
"and",
"where",
"they",
"were",
"idle",
",",
"waiting",
"for",
"others",
"upstream",
"in",
"the",
"process",
"to",
"send",
"packages",
"their",
"way",
".",
"``",
"We",
"suspected",
"there",
"was",
"downtime",
"built",
"into",
"our",
"process",
".",
"But",
"we",
"did",
"n't",
"know",
"just",
"where",
"it",
"was",
"until",
"we",
"completed",
"our",
"data",
"gathering",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Mortimer",
"says",
".",
"``",
"We",
"used",
"the",
"data",
"to",
"redesign",
"our",
"sorting",
"system",
"and",
"put",
"our",
"resources",
"where",
"they",
"could",
"do",
"the",
"most",
"good",
".",
"''",
"The",
"team",
"even",
"created",
"a",
"points",
"system",
"to",
"identify",
"those",
"couriers",
"and",
"subgroups",
"that",
"were",
"doing",
"the",
"most",
"to",
"reduce",
"package-sort",
"cycle",
"time",
".",
"Winners",
"of",
"the",
"friendly",
"competition",
"earn",
"a",
"steak",
"dinner",
"out",
"with",
"their",
"spouses",
".",
"``",
"Monitoring",
"shows",
"that",
"the",
"Natick",
"team",
"'s",
"new",
"system",
"really",
"does",
"reduce",
"cycle",
"time",
"for",
"the",
"morning",
"package",
"sort",
",",
"''",
"reports",
"James",
"Barksdale",
",",
"chief",
"operating",
"officer",
"at",
"Federal",
"Express",
".",
"``",
"The",
"vans",
"leave",
"at",
"least",
"15",
"minutes",
"earlier",
",",
"on",
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",",
"than",
"they",
"used",
"to",
".",
"And",
"service",
"levels",
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"increased",
"to",
"the",
"point",
"where",
"they",
"'re",
"consistently",
"above",
"99",
"%",
".",
"''",
"A",
"cross-functional",
"team",
"at",
"Union",
"Carbide",
"'s",
"Tonawanda",
",",
"N.Y.",
",",
"facility",
",",
"which",
"produces",
"air-separation",
"plants",
",",
"followed",
"a",
"similar",
"path",
"to",
"reduce",
"manufacturing",
"cycle",
"time",
".",
"``",
"The",
"team",
"included",
"craftsmen",
"from",
"the",
"shop",
"floor",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"engineering",
",",
"scheduling",
"and",
"purchasing",
"personnel",
",",
"''",
"reports",
"Alan",
"Westendorf",
",",
"director",
"of",
"quality",
".",
"``",
"First",
",",
"they",
"produced",
"a",
"flowchart",
"detailing",
"the",
"process",
"by",
"which",
"an",
"air-separation",
"plant",
"actually",
"gets",
"built",
".",
"Then",
"they",
"identified",
"snags",
"in",
"the",
"process",
".",
"''",
"The",
"Tonawanda",
"team",
"determined",
"that",
"holdups",
"for",
"inspections",
"were",
"the",
"main",
"problem",
"and",
"identified",
"which",
"kinds",
"of",
"delays",
"involved",
"critical",
"inspections",
"and",
"which",
"were",
"less",
"critical",
"or",
"could",
"be",
"handled",
"by",
"workers",
"already",
"on",
"the",
"line",
".",
"The",
"team",
"then",
"proposed",
"modifications",
"in",
"their",
"work",
"process",
"to",
"management",
".",
"``",
"The",
"streamlined",
"manufacturing",
"process",
"benefits",
"our",
"customers",
"in",
"at",
"least",
"two",
"ways",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Westendorf",
"concludes",
".",
"``",
"First",
",",
"we",
"have",
"better",
"quality",
"assurance",
"than",
"ever",
",",
"because",
"the",
"people",
"building",
"the",
"product",
"have",
"taken",
"on",
"more",
"responsibility",
"for",
"the",
"quality",
"of",
"their",
"own",
"work",
".",
"Second",
",",
"we",
"trimmed",
"more",
"than",
"a",
"month",
"off",
"the",
"time",
"required",
"to",
"deliver",
"a",
"finished",
"product",
".",
"''",
"At",
"Grumman",
"'s",
"Aircraft",
"Systems",
"Division",
",",
"a",
"cross-functional",
"team",
"reduced",
"the",
"cycle",
"time",
"required",
"to",
"produce",
"a",
"new",
"business",
"proposal",
"for",
"an",
"important",
"government",
"contract",
".",
"The",
"team",
"was",
"composed",
"of",
"representatives",
"from",
"engineering",
",",
"manufacturing",
",",
"corporate",
"estimating",
",",
"flight",
"test",
",",
"material",
",",
"quality",
"control",
",",
"and",
"other",
"departments",
".",
"``",
"We",
"needed",
"contributions",
"from",
"all",
"these",
"departments",
"to",
"generate",
"the",
"proposal",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Carl",
"Anton",
",",
"configuration-data",
"manager",
"for",
"Grumman",
"'s",
"A-6",
"combat",
"aircraft",
"program",
".",
"``",
"But",
"instead",
"of",
"gathering",
"their",
"input",
"piecemeal",
",",
"we",
"formed",
"the",
"team",
",",
"which",
"reached",
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"on",
"the",
"proposal",
"objectives",
"and",
"produced",
"a",
"statement",
"of",
"work",
"to",
"guide",
"all",
"the",
"functions",
"that",
"were",
"involved",
".",
"''",
"Armed",
"with",
"this",
"shared",
"understanding",
"and",
"requisite",
"background",
"information",
",",
"each",
"department",
"developed",
"its",
"specialized",
"contribution",
"to",
"the",
"proposal",
",",
"submitting",
"data",
"and",
"cost",
"estimates",
"on",
"a",
"closely",
"managed",
"schedule",
".",
"``",
"We",
"cleared",
"up",
"questions",
"and",
"inconsistencies",
"very",
"quickly",
",",
"because",
"the",
"people",
"who",
"had",
"the",
"skills",
"and",
"perspective",
"required",
"to",
"resolve",
"them",
"were",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"task",
"team",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Anton",
"explains",
".",
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"team",
"trimmed",
"more",
"than",
"two",
"months",
"from",
"the",
"cycle",
"time",
"previously",
"required",
"to",
"develop",
"comparable",
"proposals",
".",
"``",
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"team",
"eliminated",
"the",
"crisis",
"mentality",
"that",
"proposal",
"deadlines",
"can",
"generate",
".",
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"result",
"was",
"a",
"more",
"thoughtful",
",",
"complete",
"and",
"competitive",
"proposal",
",",
"''",
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"Anton",
"concludes",
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"The",
"successes",
"achieved",
"at",
"Federal",
"Express",
",",
"Union",
"Carbide",
"and",
"Grumman",
"suggest",
"that",
"managing",
"speed",
"may",
"be",
"an",
"underutilized",
"source",
"of",
"competitive",
"advantage",
".",
"Managers",
"in",
"all",
"three",
"companies",
"recognize",
"speed",
"as",
"a",
"component",
"of",
"quality",
"and",
"a",
"key",
"to",
"customer",
"satisfaction",
".",
"They",
"effectively",
"lead",
"team",
"efforts",
"to",
"reduce",
"cycle",
"time",
".",
"And",
"they",
"prepare",
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[
"If",
"there",
"'s",
"somethin'",
"strange",
"in",
"your",
"neighborhood",
"...",
"If",
"there",
"'s",
"something",
"'",
"weird",
"and",
"it",
"do",
"n't",
"look",
"good",
".",
"Who",
"ya",
"gon",
"na",
"call",
"?",
"For",
"starters",
",",
"some",
"people",
"call",
"Ed",
"and",
"Lorraine",
"Warren",
".",
"When",
"it",
"comes",
"to",
"busting",
"ghosts",
",",
"the",
"Monroe",
",",
"Conn.",
",",
"couple",
"are",
"perfect",
"demons",
".",
"They",
"claim",
"to",
"have",
"busted",
"spirits",
",",
"poltergeists",
"and",
"other",
"spooks",
"in",
"hundreds",
"of",
"houses",
"around",
"the",
"country",
".",
"They",
"say",
"they",
"now",
"get",
"three",
"or",
"four",
"``",
"legitimate",
"''",
"calls",
"a",
"week",
"from",
"people",
"harried",
"by",
"haunts",
".",
"``",
"I",
"firmly",
"believe",
"in",
"angels",
",",
"devils",
"and",
"ghosts",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
",",
"whose",
"business",
"card",
"identifies",
"him",
"as",
"a",
"``",
"demonologist",
".",
"''",
"If",
"psychics",
"do",
"n't",
"work",
",",
"but",
"your",
"house",
"still",
"seems",
"haunted",
",",
"you",
"can",
"call",
"any",
"one",
"of",
"a",
"swelling",
"band",
"of",
"skeptics",
"such",
"as",
"Richard",
"Busch",
".",
"A",
"professional",
"magician",
"and",
"musician",
",",
"he",
"heads",
"the",
"Pittsburgh",
"branch",
"of",
"the",
"Committee",
"for",
"the",
"Scientific",
"Investigation",
"of",
"the",
"Paranormal",
".",
"Mr.",
"Busch",
"says",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"scientific",
"explanation",
"for",
"all",
"haunts",
",",
"and",
"he",
"can",
"even",
"tell",
"you",
"how",
"to",
"encourage",
"the",
"spirits",
".",
"``",
"All",
"you",
"have",
"to",
"do",
"is",
"eat",
"a",
"big",
"pizza",
",",
"and",
"then",
"go",
"to",
"bed",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"You",
"'ll",
"have",
"weird",
"dreams",
",",
"too",
".",
"''",
"Either",
"way",
",",
"the",
"ghostbusting",
"business",
"is",
"going",
"like",
"gangbusters",
".",
"Tales",
"of",
"haunts",
"and",
"horrors",
"are",
"proliferating",
"beyond",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"Elm",
"Streets",
"and",
"Amityvilles",
".",
"``",
"I",
"get",
"calls",
"nearly",
"every",
"day",
"from",
"people",
"who",
"have",
"ghosts",
"in",
"their",
"house",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Raymond",
"Hyman",
",",
"a",
"skeptical",
"psychology",
"professor",
"at",
"the",
"University",
"of",
"Oregon",
".",
"In",
"a",
"public",
"opinion",
"poll",
"published",
"in",
"the",
"October",
"issue",
"of",
"Parents",
"Magazine",
",",
"a",
"third",
"of",
"those",
"queried",
"said",
"they",
"believe",
"that",
"ghosts",
"or",
"spirits",
"make",
"themselves",
"known",
"to",
"people",
".",
"``",
"The",
"movies",
",",
"the",
"books",
",",
"the",
"tabloids",
"--",
"even",
"Nancy",
"Reagan",
"is",
"boosting",
"this",
"stuff",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Paul",
"Kurtz",
",",
"a",
"philosophy",
"professor",
"at",
"the",
"State",
"University",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"at",
"Buffalo",
",",
"who",
"heads",
"the",
"Committee",
"for",
"the",
"Scientific",
"Investigation",
"of",
"the",
"Paranormal",
".",
"The",
"committee",
",",
"formed",
"in",
"1967",
",",
"now",
"has",
"60",
"chapters",
"around",
"the",
"world",
".",
"The",
"spirits",
",",
"of",
"course",
",",
"could",
"hardly",
"care",
"less",
"whether",
"people",
"do",
"or",
"do",
"n't",
"believe",
"in",
"them",
".",
"They",
"do",
"n't",
"even",
"give",
"a",
"nod",
"to",
"human",
"sensibilities",
"by",
"celebrating",
"Halloween",
".",
"For",
"the",
"spooks",
"it",
"'s",
"just",
"another",
"day",
"of",
"ectoplasmic",
"business",
"as",
"usual",
",",
"ghostbusters",
"say",
";",
"the",
"holiday",
"seems",
"to",
"occasion",
"no",
"unusual",
"number",
"of",
"ghost",
"reports",
".",
"One",
"of",
"the",
"busiest",
"ghostbusters",
"is",
"Robert",
"Baker",
",",
"a",
"68-year-old",
"semi-retired",
"University",
"of",
"Kentucky",
"psychology",
"professor",
"whose",
"bushy",
"gray",
"eyebrows",
"arch",
"at",
"the",
"mere",
"mention",
"of",
"a",
"ghost",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"says",
"he",
"has",
"personally",
"bested",
"more",
"than",
"50",
"haunts",
",",
"from",
"aliens",
"to",
"poltergeists",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"heads",
"the",
"Kentucky",
"Association",
"of",
"Science",
"Educators",
"and",
"Skeptics",
".",
"Like",
"Hollywood",
"'s",
"Ghostbusters",
",",
"Kentucky",
"'s",
"stand",
"ready",
"to",
"roll",
"when",
"haunts",
"get",
"out",
"of",
"hand",
".",
"But",
"they",
"do",
"n't",
"careen",
"around",
"in",
"an",
"old",
"Cadillac",
",",
"wear",
"funny",
"suits",
"or",
"blast",
"away",
"at",
"slimy",
"spirits",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"drives",
"a",
"1987",
"Chevy",
"and",
"usually",
"wears",
"a",
"tweed",
"jacket",
"on",
"his",
"ghostbusting",
"forays",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'ve",
"never",
"met",
"a",
"ghost",
"that",
"could",
"n't",
"be",
"explained",
"away",
"by",
"perfectly",
"natural",
"means",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"When",
"a",
"Louisville",
"woman",
"complained",
"that",
"a",
"ghost",
"was",
"haunting",
"her",
"attic",
",",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"discovered",
"a",
"rat",
"dragging",
"a",
"trap",
"across",
"the",
"rafters",
".",
"A",
"foul-smelling",
"demon",
"supposedly",
"plagued",
"a",
"house",
"in",
"Mannington",
",",
"Ky",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"found",
"an",
"opening",
"under",
"the",
"house",
"that",
"led",
"to",
"a",
"fume-filled",
"coal",
"mine",
".",
"When",
"the",
"weather",
"cools",
",",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"says",
",",
"hobos",
"often",
"hole",
"up",
"in",
"abandoned",
"houses",
".",
"``",
"People",
"see",
"activity",
"in",
"there",
",",
"and",
"the",
"next",
"thing",
"you",
"know",
",",
"you",
"'ve",
"got",
"a",
"haunting",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"On",
"a",
"recent",
"afternoon",
",",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"and",
"a",
"reporter",
"go",
"ghost-busting",
",",
"visiting",
"Kathleen",
"Stinnett",
",",
"a",
"Lexington",
"woman",
"who",
"has",
"phoned",
"the",
"University",
"of",
"Kentucky",
"to",
"report",
"mysterious",
"happenings",
"in",
"her",
"house",
".",
"Mrs.",
"Stinnett",
"says",
"she",
"never",
"believed",
"in",
"ghosts",
"before",
",",
"but",
"lately",
"her",
"vacuum",
"cleaner",
"turned",
"itself",
"on",
",",
"a",
"telephone",
"flew",
"off",
"its",
"stand",
",",
"doors",
"slammed",
"inexplicably",
",",
"and",
"she",
"heard",
"footsteps",
"in",
"her",
"empty",
"kitchen",
".",
"``",
"I",
"was",
"doing",
"the",
"laundry",
"and",
"nearly",
"broke",
"my",
"neck",
"running",
"upstairs",
"to",
"see",
"who",
"was",
"there",
",",
"and",
"it",
"was",
"nobody",
",",
"''",
"she",
"says",
",",
"eyes",
"wide",
"at",
"the",
"recollection",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"hears",
"her",
"out",
",",
"pokes",
"around",
"a",
"bit",
",",
"asks",
"a",
"few",
"questions",
"and",
"proposes",
"some",
"explanations",
".",
"Of",
"the",
"self-starting",
"vacuum",
"cleaner",
",",
"he",
"says",
":",
"``",
"Could",
"be",
"Cuddles",
",",
"-LCB-",
"Mrs.",
"Stinnett",
"'s",
"dog",
"-RCB-",
".",
"''",
"The",
"flying",
"telephone",
":",
"``",
"You",
"tangle",
"the",
"base",
"cord",
"around",
"a",
"chair",
"leg",
",",
"and",
"the",
"receiver",
"does",
"seem",
"to",
"fly",
"off",
".",
"''",
"The",
"ghostly",
"footsteps",
":",
"``",
"Interstate",
"64",
"is",
"a",
"block",
"away",
",",
"and",
"heavy",
"traffic",
"can",
"sure",
"set",
"a",
"house",
"to",
"vibrating",
".",
"''",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"not",
"sure",
"he",
"'s",
"explained",
"everything",
",",
"''",
"Mrs.",
"Stinnett",
"says",
"grudgingly",
".",
"``",
"There",
"are",
"some",
"things",
"that",
"have",
"gone",
"on",
"here",
"that",
"nobody",
"can",
"explain",
",",
"''",
"she",
"says",
".",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"promises",
"to",
"return",
"if",
"the",
"haunting",
"continues",
".",
"For",
"especially",
"stubborn",
"haunts",
",",
"Mr.",
"Baker",
"carries",
"a",
"secret",
"weapon",
",",
"a",
"vial",
"of",
"cornstarch",
".",
"``",
"I",
"tell",
"people",
"it",
"'s",
"the",
"groundup",
"bones",
"of",
"saints",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"I",
"sprinkle",
"a",
"little",
"around",
"and",
"tell",
"the",
"demons",
"to",
"leave",
".",
"It",
"'s",
"reassuring",
",",
"and",
"it",
"usually",
"works",
".",
"''",
"Oregon",
"'s",
"Mr.",
"Hyman",
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"claims",
"of",
"flying",
"cats",
",",
"apparitions",
"and",
"bouncing",
"chandeliers",
"and",
"has",
"come",
"up",
"with",
"a",
"plausible",
"explanation",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"for",
"every",
"one",
".",
"``",
"Invariably",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"eyewitnesses",
"are",
"untrustworthy",
".",
"''",
"Two",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"a",
"Canadian",
"reader",
"bet",
"Omni",
"Magazine",
"$",
"1,000",
"that",
"it",
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"the",
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"the",
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"Vortex",
",",
"''",
"a",
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".",
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"a",
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",",
"visitors",
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"seemed",
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",",
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".",
"The",
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"called",
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"Mr.",
"Hyman",
"as",
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".",
"He",
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",",
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".",
"``",
"A",
"very",
"striking",
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",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Hyman",
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"now",
",",
"his",
"voice",
"dripping",
"with",
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",",
"``",
"but",
"an",
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"nevertheless",
".",
"''",
"The",
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"up",
"writing",
"a",
"check",
".",
"The",
"Rev.",
"Alphonsus",
"Trabold",
",",
"a",
"theology",
"professor",
"and",
"exorcism",
"expert",
"at",
"St.",
"Bonaventure",
"University",
"in",
"Olean",
",",
"N.Y.",
",",
"frequently",
"is",
"asked",
"to",
"exorcise",
"unruly",
"spirits",
",",
"and",
"he",
"often",
"obliges",
".",
"``",
"On",
"certain",
"occasions",
"a",
"spirit",
"could",
"be",
"earthbound",
"and",
"make",
"itself",
"known",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"It",
"happens",
".",
"''",
"Father",
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"``",
"a",
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"''",
":",
"a",
"few",
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"an",
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"to",
"the",
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"to",
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".",
"``",
"If",
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"person",
"believes",
"there",
"'s",
"an",
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"spirit",
",",
"you",
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"to",
"be",
"gone",
",",
"''",
"he",
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".",
"``",
"The",
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"may",
"do",
"the",
"healing",
".",
"''",
"But",
"sometimes",
"more",
"energetic",
"attacks",
"are",
"required",
".",
"To",
"wrestle",
"with",
"a",
"demon",
"in",
"a",
"house",
"owned",
"by",
"a",
"Litchfield",
",",
"Conn.",
",",
"woman",
",",
"the",
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"recently",
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"an",
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",",
"the",
"Rev.",
"Robert",
"McKenna",
",",
"a",
"dissident",
"clergyman",
"who",
"hews",
"to",
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"Catholic",
"Church",
"'s",
"old",
"Latin",
"liturgy",
".",
"I",
"attend",
",",
"and",
"so",
"does",
"a",
"television",
"crew",
"from",
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"York",
"City",
".",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
"pronounces",
"the",
"Litchfield",
"case",
"``",
"your",
"typical",
"demonic",
"infestation",
".",
"''",
"A",
"Scottish",
"dwarf",
"built",
"the",
"small",
"red",
"house",
"110",
"years",
"ago",
"and",
"now",
"his",
"demonic",
"ghost",
"haunts",
"it",
",",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
"says",
".",
"The",
"owner",
",",
"who",
"begs",
"anonymity",
",",
"asserts",
"that",
"the",
"dwarf",
",",
"appearing",
"as",
"a",
"dark",
"shadow",
",",
"has",
"manhandled",
"her",
",",
"tossing",
"her",
"around",
"the",
"living",
"room",
"and",
"yanking",
"out",
"a",
"hank",
"of",
"hair",
".",
"Two",
"previous",
"exorcisms",
"have",
"failed",
".",
"``",
"This",
"is",
"a",
"very",
"tenacious",
"ghost",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
"says",
"darkly",
".",
"Father",
"McKenna",
"moves",
"through",
"the",
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"praying",
"in",
"Latin",
",",
"urging",
"the",
"demon",
"to",
"split",
".",
"Suddenly",
"the",
"woman",
"begins",
"swaying",
"and",
"then",
"writhing",
".",
"``",
"She",
"'s",
"being",
"attacked",
"by",
"the",
"demon",
",",
"''",
"Mrs.",
"Warren",
"stagewhispers",
"as",
"the",
"priest",
"sprinkles",
"holy",
"water",
"over",
"the",
"squirming",
"woman",
",",
"and",
"the",
"television",
"camera",
"grinds",
".",
"A",
"half-hour",
"later",
",",
"the",
"woman",
"is",
"smiling",
"and",
"chatting",
";",
"the",
"demon",
"seems",
"to",
"have",
"gone",
".",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
"says",
"the",
"woman",
"has",
"``",
"psychic",
"burns",
"''",
"on",
"her",
"back",
"from",
"the",
"confrontation",
".",
"She",
"declines",
"to",
"show",
"them",
".",
"``",
"This",
"was",
"an",
"invisible",
",",
"powerful",
"force",
"that",
"'s",
"almost",
"impossible",
"for",
"a",
"layman",
"to",
"contemplate",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Warren",
"says",
"solemnly",
"as",
"the",
"ghostbusting",
"entourage",
"packs",
"up",
"to",
"leave",
".",
"``",
"This",
"time",
"though",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"we",
"got",
"it",
".",
"''",
"Lyrics",
"from",
"``",
"Ghostbusters",
"''",
"by",
"Ray",
"S.",
"Parker",
"Jr.",
"1984",
"by",
"Golden",
"Torch",
"Music",
"Corp.",
"(",
"ASCAP",
")",
"and",
"Raydiola",
"Music",
"(",
"ASCAP",
")",
".",
"All",
"administrative",
"rights",
"for",
"the",
"U.S.",
"jointly",
"controlled",
"by",
"both",
"companies",
".",
"International",
"copyright",
"secured",
".",
"Made",
"in",
"USA",
".",
"All",
"rights",
"Reserved",
".",
"Reprinted",
"by",
"permission",
"."
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".",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"One",
"expert",
",",
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"so",
"politically",
"sensitive",
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"he",
"spoke",
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",",
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"European",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"``",
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"''",
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"memory",
".",
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"Oliver",
"North",
"of",
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"notoriety",
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"he",
"had",
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"No",
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",",
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"the",
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",",
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"W.",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"tanker",
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"pick",
"up",
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"cargo",
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"in",
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"East",
".",
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"trader",
"got",
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",",
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[
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[
"If",
"a",
"TV",
"weatherman",
"gets",
"butterflies",
"facing",
"the",
"camera",
"again",
"after",
"a",
"questionable",
"forecast",
",",
"Donald",
"H.",
"Straszheim",
"surely",
"understands",
".",
"The",
"chief",
"economist",
"of",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"&",
"Co.",
"finds",
"himself",
"in",
"such",
"a",
"position",
"as",
"he",
"buzzes",
"the",
"Midwest",
"on",
"his",
"first",
"road",
"trip",
"since",
"backpedaling",
"on",
"a",
"major",
"prediction",
".",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"expects",
"he",
"will",
"take",
"some",
"heat",
",",
"and",
"he",
"'s",
"right",
".",
"Since",
"the",
"last",
"time",
"he",
"traveled",
"this",
"way",
"several",
"months",
"ago",
",",
"he",
"has",
"recanted",
"a",
"series",
"of",
"bold",
"forecasts",
"of",
"a",
"recession",
".",
"In",
"February",
"1988",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"'s",
"weekly",
"commentary",
"announced",
"that",
"``",
"the",
"economy",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"fall",
"into",
"recession",
"in",
"early",
"1989",
".",
"''",
"The",
"forecasts",
"were",
"widely",
"disseminated",
",",
"and",
",",
"in",
"a",
"splashy",
"ad",
"campaign",
"launched",
"in",
"the",
"summer",
"of",
"1988",
",",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"urged",
"investors",
"to",
"buy",
"bonds",
".",
"It",
"said",
"long-term",
"interest",
"rates",
",",
"then",
"above",
"9",
"%",
",",
"could",
"drop",
"to",
"7",
"%",
"by",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"1989",
",",
"so",
"bonds",
",",
"which",
"benefit",
"from",
"falling",
"rates",
",",
"would",
"be",
"a",
"good",
"buy",
".",
"The",
"firm",
"also",
"raised",
"the",
"percentage",
"of",
"bonds",
"in",
"its",
"model",
"portfolio",
"from",
"40",
"%",
"to",
"45",
"%",
"and",
"later",
"to",
"55",
"%",
".",
"But",
"this",
"September",
"--",
"just",
"when",
"many",
"market",
"economists",
",",
"including",
"some",
"at",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
",",
"believed",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"was",
"about",
"to",
"be",
"proved",
"right",
"--",
"he",
"took",
"a",
"detour",
"if",
"not",
"a",
"U-turn",
".",
"He",
"softened",
"the",
"talk",
"about",
"a",
"recession",
".",
"Now",
",",
"in",
"fact",
",",
"he",
"is",
"predicting",
"economic",
"growth",
"of",
"2.9",
"%",
"this",
"year",
"and",
"2.1",
"%",
"next",
"year",
",",
"a",
"more",
"optimistic",
"outlook",
"than",
"the",
"consensus",
"of",
"some",
"four",
"dozen",
"top",
"forecasters",
"surveyed",
"by",
"Blue",
"Chip",
"Economic",
"Indicators",
"newsletter",
".",
"And",
",",
"just",
"recently",
",",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"cut",
"the",
"recommended",
"bondholdings",
"back",
"to",
"50",
"%",
".",
"While",
"such",
"changes",
"might",
"sound",
"minor",
",",
"they",
"are",
"n't",
":",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"manages",
"or",
"oversees",
"some",
"$",
"300",
"billion",
"in",
"retail",
"accounts",
"that",
"include",
"everything",
"from",
"mutual",
"funds",
"to",
"individual",
"annuities",
".",
"Two",
"well-known",
"colleagues",
"who",
"believe",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"was",
"right",
"the",
"first",
"time",
"are",
"David",
"Bostian",
"Jr.",
"and",
"A.",
"Gary",
"Shilling",
",",
"both",
"of",
"whom",
"run",
"their",
"own",
"New",
"York",
"research",
"firms",
".",
"Mr.",
"Bostian",
"said",
"in",
"August",
"that",
"his",
"macroeconomic",
"index",
"signaled",
"recession",
".",
"Mr.",
"Shilling",
",",
"who",
"was",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"'s",
"chief",
"economist",
"from",
"1967",
"to",
"1971",
",",
"has",
"heralded",
"a",
"recession",
"for",
"months",
".",
"``",
"My",
"own",
"personal",
"opinion",
"is",
"that",
"Don",
"threw",
"in",
"the",
"towel",
"just",
"about",
"the",
"time",
"he",
"should",
"have",
"doubled",
"his",
"bet",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"Now",
"a",
"rocky",
"stock",
"market",
"and",
"weak",
"corporate",
"profits",
"may",
"further",
"threaten",
"the",
"economy",
".",
"And",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"conceded",
"after",
"a",
"recent",
"drop",
"in",
"manufacturing",
"jobs",
"that",
"``",
"it",
"may",
"prove",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"case",
"that",
"we",
"got",
"whipsawed",
"--",
"that",
"we",
"pulled",
"the",
"recession",
"forecast",
"at",
"just",
"the",
"wrong",
"time",
".",
"''",
"He",
"adds",
",",
"``",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"forecasting",
"business",
".",
"''",
"However",
"risky",
"the",
"business",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"brisk",
"these",
"days",
".",
"Pestered",
"by",
"bosses",
",",
"brokers",
",",
"clients",
"and",
"media",
"people",
"and",
"pushed",
"by",
"their",
"own",
"egos",
",",
"Wall",
"Street",
"economists",
"are",
"forecasting",
"about",
"everything",
"from",
"broad",
"economic",
"trends",
"to",
"the",
"dinkiest",
"monthly",
"indicator",
".",
"But",
"the",
"surprisingly",
"durable",
"seven-year",
"economic",
"expansion",
"has",
"made",
"mincemeat",
"of",
"more",
"than",
"one",
"forecast",
".",
"This",
"is",
"n't",
"the",
"quiet",
"economic",
"science",
"practiced",
"in",
"the",
"universities",
".",
"This",
"is",
"the",
"commercial",
"version",
".",
"Carrying",
"the",
"new",
"message",
"on",
"the",
"road",
",",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"meets",
"confrontation",
"that",
"often",
"occurs",
"in",
"inverse",
"proportion",
"to",
"the",
"size",
"of",
"the",
"client",
".",
"No",
"sophisticated",
"professional",
"expects",
"economists",
"to",
"be",
"right",
"all",
"the",
"time",
".",
"Some",
"smaller",
"clients",
"do",
"n't",
"seem",
"to",
"notice",
"his",
"switch",
".",
"But",
"with",
"some",
"clients",
",",
"the",
"talk",
"can",
"heat",
"up",
"a",
"bit",
".",
"Dennis",
"O'Brien",
",",
"the",
"treasurer",
"of",
"Commonwealth",
"Edison",
"Co.",
"in",
"Chicago",
",",
"adopts",
"a",
"polite",
"approach",
",",
"waiting",
"for",
"an",
"opportunity",
"to",
"ask",
"about",
"the",
"forecast",
".",
"A",
"good",
"half-hour",
"into",
"breakfast",
"at",
"the",
"Palmer",
"House",
",",
"Mr.",
"O'Brien",
"looks",
"up",
"from",
"his",
"plate",
"after",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"says",
"something",
"about",
"people",
"who",
"believe",
"interest",
"rates",
"are",
"about",
"to",
"nosedive",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"one",
"of",
"them",
"who",
"hope",
"they",
"will",
",",
"with",
"$",
"6",
"billion",
"in",
"debt",
"on",
"the",
"books",
".",
"Is",
"that",
"the",
"forecast",
"?",
"''",
"Mr.",
"O'Brien",
"asks",
",",
"trying",
"to",
"pin",
"down",
"the",
"economist",
".",
"He",
"does",
"n't",
"fully",
"succeed",
",",
"although",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"lists",
"an",
"array",
"of",
"interest-rate",
"scenarios",
".",
"In",
"a",
"chilly",
"conference",
"room",
"at",
"Alliance",
"Capital",
"Management",
"in",
"Minneapolis",
",",
"in",
"contrast",
",",
"the",
"firm",
"'s",
"money",
"managers",
"seem",
"ready",
"to",
"pin",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"to",
"the",
"wall",
".",
"Alfred",
"Harrison",
",",
"the",
"manager",
",",
"shoves",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"'s",
"handout",
"back",
"at",
"him",
":",
"``",
"Do",
"we",
"want",
"to",
"go",
"through",
"this",
"?",
"Or",
"can",
"we",
"ask",
"you",
"why",
"you",
"changed",
"your",
"forecast",
"just",
"when",
"it",
"'s",
"about",
"to",
"be",
"right",
"?",
"''",
"Swiveling",
"in",
"his",
"chair",
",",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"replies",
"that",
"the",
"new",
"outlook",
",",
"though",
"still",
"weak",
",",
"does",
"n't",
"justify",
"calling",
"a",
"recession",
"right",
"now",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"all",
"in",
"this",
"handout",
"you",
"do",
"n't",
"want",
"to",
"look",
"at",
".",
"We",
"could",
"still",
"have",
"a",
"recession",
"''",
"at",
"some",
"point",
".",
"One",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"'s",
"recurring",
"themes",
"is",
"that",
"the",
"state",
"of",
"the",
"economy",
"is",
"n't",
"a",
"simple",
"black",
"or",
"white",
".",
"Sometimes",
",",
"like",
"now",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"gray",
".",
"This",
"somewhat-ambiguous",
"assessment",
"moves",
"one",
"Alliance",
"portfolio",
"manager",
"to",
"ask",
":",
"``",
"So",
",",
"what",
"is",
"this",
"--",
"a",
"Stealth",
"recession",
"?",
"''",
"Another",
"challenges",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"'s",
"bond",
"recommendation",
"last",
"year",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'re",
"not",
"running",
"that",
"ad",
"campaign",
"any",
"more",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"snaps",
"in",
"a",
"rare",
"show",
"of",
"irritation",
".",
"He",
"adds",
",",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"it",
"was",
"a",
"fairly",
"decent",
"call",
".",
"''",
"Explaining",
"his",
"change",
"of",
"mind",
",",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"says",
"later",
",",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"hard",
"to",
"pin",
"this",
"on",
"one",
"factor",
".",
"''",
"He",
"says",
"the",
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",",
"and",
"especially",
"the",
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"numbers",
",",
"look",
"much",
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";",
"interest",
"rates",
"have",
"generally",
"declined",
";",
"inflation",
"has",
"n't",
"run",
"amok",
".",
"``",
"Our",
"business",
"is",
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"looking",
"at",
"all",
"these",
"things",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"His",
"new",
"forecast",
"calls",
"for",
"``",
"a",
"soft",
"landing",
".",
"''",
"And",
"it",
"may",
"be",
"right",
",",
"judging",
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"last",
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"'s",
"report",
"that",
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"gross",
"national",
"product",
"rose",
"at",
"a",
"2.5",
"%",
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"rate",
"in",
"the",
"third",
"quarter",
".",
"Mr.",
"Shilling",
"understands",
"Mr.",
"Straszheim",
"'s",
"problems",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"unbelievable",
"pressure",
"on",
"economists",
"to",
"forecast",
"these",
"numbers",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"You",
"make",
"a",
"forecast",
",",
"and",
"then",
"you",
"become",
"its",
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".",
"''",
"It",
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",",
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".",
"His",
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"is",
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"but",
"low-key",
".",
"``",
"For",
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",",
"we",
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"third",
"-",
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".",
"We",
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"''",
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",",
"Jaffray",
"&",
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"officials",
"in",
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",",
"the",
"first",
"stop",
"."
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"Union",
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"case",
"obl",
"compound",
"nummod",
"case",
"obl",
"compound",
"nummod",
"punct"
] |
[
"The",
"Polish",
"rat",
"will",
"eat",
"well",
"this",
"winter",
".",
"Tons",
"of",
"delectably",
"rotting",
"potatoes",
",",
"barley",
"and",
"wheat",
"will",
"fill",
"damp",
"barns",
"across",
"the",
"land",
"as",
"thousands",
"of",
"farmers",
"turn",
"the",
"state",
"'s",
"buyers",
"away",
".",
"Many",
"a",
"piglet",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"born",
"as",
"a",
"result",
",",
"and",
"many",
"a",
"ham",
"will",
"never",
"hang",
"in",
"a",
"butcher",
"shop",
".",
"But",
"with",
"inflation",
"raging",
",",
"grain",
"in",
"the",
"barn",
"will",
"still",
"be",
"a",
"safer",
"bet",
"for",
"the",
"private",
"farmer",
"than",
"money",
"in",
"the",
"bank",
".",
"Once",
"again",
",",
"the",
"indomitable",
"peasant",
"holds",
"Poland",
"'s",
"future",
"in",
"his",
"hands",
".",
"Until",
"his",
"labor",
"can",
"produce",
"a",
"profit",
"in",
"this",
"dying",
"and",
"distorted",
"system",
",",
"even",
"Solidarity",
"'s",
"sympathetic",
"new",
"government",
"wo",
"n't",
"win",
"him",
"over",
".",
"In",
"coming",
"months",
",",
"emergency",
"food",
"aid",
"moving",
"in",
"from",
"the",
"West",
"will",
"be",
"the",
"one",
"buffer",
"between",
"a",
"meat-hungry",
"public",
"and",
"a",
"new",
"political",
"calamity",
".",
"Factory",
"workers",
"on",
"strike",
"knocked",
"Poland",
"'s",
"Communist",
"bosses",
"off",
"balance",
"last",
"year",
";",
"this",
"year",
",",
"it",
"was",
"the",
"farmers",
"who",
"brought",
"them",
"down",
".",
"In",
"June",
",",
"farmers",
"held",
"onto",
"meat",
",",
"milk",
"and",
"grain",
",",
"waiting",
"for",
"July",
"'s",
"usual",
"state-directed",
"price",
"rises",
".",
"The",
"Communists",
"froze",
"prices",
"instead",
".",
"The",
"farmers",
"ran",
"a",
"boycott",
",",
"and",
"meat",
"disappeared",
"from",
"the",
"shops",
".",
"On",
"Aug.",
"1",
",",
"the",
"state",
"tore",
"up",
"its",
"controls",
",",
"and",
"food",
"prices",
"leaped",
".",
"Without",
"buffer",
"stocks",
",",
"inflation",
"exploded",
".",
"That",
"was",
"when",
"the",
"tame",
"old",
"Peasants",
"'",
"Party",
",",
"desperate",
"to",
"live",
"through",
"the",
"crisis",
",",
"broke",
"ranks",
"with",
"the",
"Communists",
"and",
"joined",
"with",
"Solidarity",
"in",
"the",
"East",
"Bloc",
"'s",
"first",
"liberated",
"government",
".",
"But",
"by",
"the",
"time",
"Solidarity",
"took",
"office",
"in",
"September",
",",
"the",
"damage",
"was",
"done",
".",
"``",
"Shortageflation",
",",
"''",
"as",
"economists",
"have",
"come",
"to",
"call",
"it",
",",
"had",
"gone",
"hyper",
".",
"The",
"cost",
"of",
"raising",
"a",
"pig",
"kept",
"bounding",
"ahead",
"of",
"the",
"return",
"for",
"selling",
"one",
".",
"The",
"farmers",
"stayed",
"angry",
".",
"They",
"still",
"are",
".",
"At",
"dawn",
"on",
"a",
"cool",
"day",
",",
"hundreds",
"travel",
"to",
"the",
"private",
"market",
"in",
"Radzymin",
",",
"a",
"town",
"not",
"far",
"from",
"Warsaw",
",",
"hauling",
"pigs",
",",
"cattle",
"and",
"sacks",
"of",
"feed",
"that",
"the",
"state",
"'s",
"official",
"buyers",
"ca",
"n't",
"induce",
"them",
"to",
"sell",
".",
"Here",
",",
"they",
"are",
"searching",
"for",
"a",
"higher",
"price",
".",
"In",
"a",
"crush",
"of",
"trucks",
"and",
"horse",
"carts",
"on",
"the",
"trodden",
"field",
",",
"Andrzej",
"Latowski",
"wrestles",
"a",
"screeching",
",",
"overweight",
"hog",
"into",
"the",
"trunk",
"of",
"a",
"private",
"butcher",
"'s",
"Polish",
"Fiat",
".",
"``",
"Of",
"course",
"it",
"'s",
"better",
"to",
"sell",
"private",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"as",
"the",
"butcher",
"trundles",
"away",
".",
"``",
"Why",
"should",
"anybody",
"want",
"to",
"sell",
"to",
"them",
"?",
"''",
"The",
"young",
"farmer",
"makes",
"money",
"on",
"the",
"few",
"hogs",
"he",
"sells",
"here",
".",
"He",
"wo",
"n't",
"for",
"long",
",",
"because",
"his",
"old",
"state",
"sources",
"of",
"rye",
"and",
"potatoes",
"are",
"drying",
"up",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"no",
"feed",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"You",
"ca",
"n't",
"buy",
"anything",
"nowadays",
".",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"why",
".",
"''",
"Edward",
"Chojnowski",
"does",
".",
"His",
"truck",
"is",
"parked",
"across",
"the",
"field",
",",
"in",
"a",
"row",
"of",
"grain",
"sellers",
".",
"Like",
"the",
"others",
",",
"it",
"is",
"loaded",
"with",
"rye",
",",
"wheat",
"and",
"oats",
"in",
"sacks",
"labeled",
"``",
"Asbestos",
".",
"Made",
"in",
"U.S.S.R",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"at",
"the",
"next",
"truck",
"shouts",
",",
"``",
"Wheat",
"!",
"It",
"'s",
"nice",
"!",
"It",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"cheaper",
"!",
"We",
"sell",
"direct",
"!",
"''",
"A",
"heavy",
",",
"kerchiefed",
"woman",
"runs",
"a",
"handful",
"through",
"her",
"fingers",
",",
"and",
"counts",
"him",
"out",
"a",
"pile",
"of",
"zlotys",
".",
"``",
"Country",
"people",
"breed",
"pigs",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Chojnowski",
",",
"leaning",
"against",
"the",
"back",
"of",
"his",
"truck",
".",
"``",
"They",
"ca",
"n't",
"buy",
"feed",
"from",
"the",
"state",
".",
"There",
"is",
"n't",
"enough",
".",
"Some",
"state",
"middlemen",
"come",
"to",
"buy",
"from",
"me",
".",
"I",
"sell",
"--",
"a",
"little",
".",
"I",
"am",
"waiting",
".",
"I",
"have",
"plenty",
"more",
"at",
"home",
".",
"''",
"On",
"this",
"morning",
",",
"he",
"does",
"n't",
"sell",
"much",
"in",
"Radzymin",
",",
"either",
".",
"At",
"closing",
"time",
",",
"farmers",
"cart",
"out",
"most",
"of",
"what",
"they",
"carted",
"in",
".",
"A",
"private",
"market",
"like",
"this",
"just",
"is",
"n't",
"big",
"enough",
"to",
"absorb",
"all",
"that",
"business",
".",
"The",
"hulk",
"of",
"Stalinism",
",",
"it",
"seems",
",",
"will",
"not",
"quickly",
"crumble",
"away",
".",
"State",
"monopolies",
"will",
"keep",
"on",
"stifling",
"trade",
",",
"``",
"free",
"''",
"prices",
"or",
"not",
",",
"until",
"something",
"else",
"replaces",
"them",
".",
"Polish",
"agriculture",
"will",
"need",
"a",
"whole",
"private",
"network",
"of",
"procurement",
",",
"processing",
"and",
"distribution",
"--",
"plus",
"a",
"new",
"manufacturing",
"industry",
"to",
"supply",
"it",
"with",
"tractors",
",",
"pesticides",
",",
"fertilizers",
"and",
"feed",
".",
"The",
"Communists",
"spent",
"40",
"years",
"working",
"to",
"ensure",
"that",
"no",
"such",
"capitalistic",
"structures",
"ever",
"arose",
"here",
".",
"Building",
"them",
"now",
"will",
"require",
"undergirding",
"from",
"the",
"West",
",",
"and",
"removal",
"of",
"political",
"deadwood",
",",
"a",
"job",
"that",
"Solidarity",
"has",
"barely",
"started",
".",
"But",
"Polish",
"agriculture",
"does",
"possess",
"one",
"great",
"asset",
"already",
":",
"the",
"private",
"farmer",
".",
"``",
"We",
"are",
"dealing",
"with",
"real",
"entrepreneurs",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Antoni",
"Leopold",
",",
"an",
"economist",
"who",
"advises",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
",",
"the",
"union",
"'s",
"countryside",
"offshoot",
".",
"``",
"There",
"are",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"them",
",",
"and",
"they",
"have",
"property",
".",
"''",
"Polish",
"peasants",
",",
"spurning",
"the",
"collectivizers",
",",
"were",
"once",
"a",
"source",
"of",
"shame",
"to",
"orthodox",
"Communists",
".",
"Now",
",",
"among",
"Communist",
"reformers",
",",
"they",
"are",
"objects",
"of",
"envy",
".",
"Food",
"is",
"the",
"reformer",
"'s",
"top",
"priority",
",",
"the",
"key",
"to",
"popular",
"support",
".",
"As",
"the",
"Chinese",
"have",
"shown",
"and",
"the",
"Soviets",
"are",
"learning",
",",
"family",
"farms",
"thrive",
"where",
"collectives",
"fail",
".",
"Ownership",
",",
"it",
"seems",
",",
"is",
"the",
"best",
"fertilizer",
".",
"The",
"Poles",
"have",
"had",
"it",
"all",
"along",
".",
"Poland",
"'s",
"2.7",
"million",
"small",
"private",
"farms",
"cover",
"76",
"%",
"of",
"its",
"arable",
"land",
".",
"On",
"it",
",",
"a",
"quarter",
"of",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"39",
"million",
"people",
"produce",
"three-quarters",
"of",
"its",
"grain",
",",
"beef",
",",
"eggs",
"and",
"milk",
",",
"and",
"nine-tenths",
"of",
"its",
"fruit",
",",
"vegetables",
"and",
"potatoes",
".",
"Like",
"the",
"Roman",
"Catholic",
"Church",
",",
"the",
"Polish",
"peasant",
"is",
"a",
"pillar",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
".",
"Try",
"as",
"they",
"might",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"could",
"neither",
"replace",
"nor",
"break",
"him",
".",
"And",
"they",
"did",
"try",
".",
"A",
"few",
"miles",
"past",
"Radzymin",
",",
"a",
"dirt",
"road",
"narrows",
"to",
"a",
"track",
"of",
"sand",
"and",
"leads",
"into",
"Zalubice",
",",
"a",
"village",
"of",
"tumbledown",
"farms",
".",
"Czeslaw",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"owns",
"30",
"acres",
"in",
"14",
"scattered",
"scraps",
".",
"He",
"grows",
"rye",
"and",
"potatoes",
"for",
"a",
"few",
"hens",
",",
"five",
"cows",
"and",
"25",
"piglets",
".",
"In",
"patched",
"pants",
"and",
"torn",
"shoes",
",",
"he",
"stands",
"in",
"his",
"barnyard",
"eyeing",
"the",
"ground",
"with",
"a",
"look",
"both",
"helpless",
"and",
"sardonic",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"bad",
"soil",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"Until",
"1963",
",",
"it",
"was",
"good",
"soil",
".",
"Then",
"the",
"state",
"put",
"in",
"a",
"reservoir",
"to",
"supply",
"the",
"area",
"with",
"drinking",
"water",
".",
"Farmers",
"lay",
"down",
"before",
"the",
"bulldozers",
".",
"Their",
"protest",
"was",
"ignored",
".",
"The",
"dam",
"caused",
"the",
"water",
"level",
"to",
"drop",
"in",
"Zalubice",
".",
"Mr",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"smiles",
"and",
"his",
"brow",
"furrows",
".",
"He",
"expected",
"as",
"much",
".",
"In",
"his",
"lifetime",
",",
"47",
"years",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"brought",
"electricity",
"to",
"his",
"village",
"and",
"piped",
"in",
"drinking",
"water",
"from",
"the",
"reservoir",
".",
"No",
"phones",
".",
"No",
"gas",
".",
"``",
"We",
"wanted",
"them",
"to",
"build",
"a",
"road",
"here",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"They",
"started",
",",
"and",
"then",
"abandoned",
"it",
".",
"''",
"A",
"tractor",
",",
"his",
"only",
"mechanized",
"equipment",
",",
"stands",
"in",
"front",
"of",
"the",
"pigsty",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"Russian",
".",
"Good",
"for",
"nothing",
".",
"Parts",
"are",
"a",
"tragedy",
".",
"Even",
"if",
"I",
"had",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"money",
",",
"I",
"could",
"n't",
"buy",
"what",
"I",
"need",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"can",
"say",
"the",
"same",
"for",
"coal",
",",
"cement",
",",
"saw",
"blades",
".",
"In",
"Poland",
",",
"only",
"4",
"%",
"of",
"all",
"investment",
"goes",
"toward",
"making",
"things",
"farmers",
"want",
";",
"in",
"the",
"West",
",",
"it",
"is",
"closer",
"to",
"20",
"%",
".",
"The",
"few",
"big",
"state",
"farms",
"take",
"first",
"crack",
"at",
"what",
"does",
"get",
"made",
".",
"They",
"use",
"60",
"%",
"more",
"fertilizer",
"per",
"acre",
",",
"twice",
"the",
"high-grade",
"feed",
".",
"Yet",
"their",
"best",
"boast",
"is",
"that",
"they",
"produce",
"32",
"%",
"of",
"Polish",
"pork",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'ve",
"heard",
"from",
"friends",
"that",
"state",
"farms",
"are",
"subsidized",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"says",
"as",
"his",
"wife",
",",
"Wieslawa",
",",
"sets",
"some",
"chairs",
"out",
"in",
"the",
"sun",
".",
"``",
"We",
"have",
"one",
"near",
"here",
".",
"There",
"is",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"waste",
".",
"A",
"private",
"farmer",
"never",
"wastes",
"anything",
".",
"''",
"The",
"state",
"quit",
"shoving",
"peasants",
"onto",
"its",
"subsidized",
"farms",
"over",
"30",
"years",
"ago",
".",
"But",
"it",
"never",
"did",
"let",
"up",
"on",
"the",
"pressure",
".",
"Until",
"recently",
",",
"a",
"farmer",
"with",
"no",
"heir",
"had",
"to",
"will",
"the",
"state",
"his",
"land",
"to",
"collect",
"his",
"pension",
".",
"The",
"pension",
"'s",
"size",
"still",
"depends",
"on",
"how",
"much",
"produce",
"he",
"sells",
"the",
"state",
".",
"His",
"allotment",
"of",
"materials",
"also",
"did",
",",
"until",
"the",
"state",
"could",
"n't",
"hold",
"up",
"its",
"end",
"of",
"that",
"bargain",
".",
"Yet",
"the",
"state",
"alone",
"sells",
"seeds",
"and",
"machines",
".",
"When",
"supplies",
"are",
"short",
",",
"it",
"often",
"hands",
"them",
"over",
"only",
"in",
"exchange",
"for",
"milk",
"or",
"grain",
".",
"A",
"private",
"farmer",
"in",
"Poland",
"is",
"free",
"to",
"buy",
"and",
"sell",
"land",
",",
"hire",
"help",
",",
"decide",
"what",
"to",
"grow",
"and",
"how",
"to",
"grow",
"it",
".",
"He",
"is",
"free",
"to",
"invest",
"in",
"chickens",
",",
"and",
"to",
"fail",
"for",
"lack",
"of",
"chicken",
"wire",
".",
"He",
"has",
"plenty",
"of",
"freedom",
"--",
"but",
"no",
"choices",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"on",
"my",
"own",
"land",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pyszkiewicz",
"says",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
"listen",
"to",
"what",
"anybody",
"tells",
"me",
"to",
"do",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Sometimes",
",",
"''",
"says",
"his",
"wife",
",",
"``",
"we",
"'re",
"happy",
"about",
"that",
".",
"''",
"By",
"starving",
"the",
"peasant",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"have",
"starved",
"Poland",
".",
"Villages",
"like",
"Zalubice",
"exist",
"in",
"a",
"desert",
"of",
"poor",
"schools",
"and",
"few",
"doctors",
".",
"Farm",
"income",
"is",
"15",
"%",
"below",
"the",
"average",
".",
"The",
"young",
"leave",
",",
"especially",
"girls",
"who",
"wo",
"n't",
"milk",
"cows",
"by",
"hand",
".",
"Some",
"men",
"stay",
",",
"their",
"best",
"friend",
"a",
"bottle",
"of",
"vodka",
",",
"but",
"two",
"million",
"acres",
"have",
"gone",
"fallow",
".",
"Without",
"machines",
",",
"good",
"farms",
"ca",
"n't",
"get",
"bigger",
".",
"So",
"the",
"potato",
"crop",
",",
"once",
"47",
"million",
"tons",
",",
"is",
"down",
"to",
"35",
"million",
".",
"Meat",
"consumption",
"is",
"at",
"1979",
"'s",
"level",
",",
"pork",
"production",
"at",
"1973",
"'s",
",",
"milk",
"output",
"at",
"1960",
"'s",
".",
"If",
"a",
"food",
"crisis",
"undid",
"the",
"Communists",
",",
"a",
"food",
"revolution",
"will",
"make",
"Solidarity",
".",
"The",
"potential",
"is",
"displayed",
"along",
"every",
"road",
"into",
"Warsaw",
":",
"row",
"upon",
"row",
"of",
"greenhouses",
",",
"stretching",
"out",
"behind",
"modern",
"mansions",
"that",
"trumpet",
"their",
"owners",
"'",
"wealth",
".",
"Vegetables",
"are",
"abundant",
"and",
"full",
"of",
"flavor",
"in",
"Poland",
",",
"the",
"pickles",
"and",
"sauerkraut",
"sublime",
",",
"the",
"state",
"monopolies",
"long",
"broken",
".",
"Grain",
",",
"milk",
"and",
"meat",
"come",
"next",
".",
"A",
"private",
"challenge",
"to",
"the",
"monolithic",
"tractor",
"industry",
"will",
"take",
"more",
"time",
"and",
"money",
"than",
"Poland",
"can",
"spare",
",",
"although",
"a",
"smokehouse",
"or",
"a",
"local",
"dairy",
"can",
"spring",
"up",
"fast",
".",
"Poland",
"makes",
"no",
"machinery",
"for",
"a",
"plant",
"on",
"that",
"scale",
".",
"Solidarity",
"wants",
"it",
"from",
"the",
"West",
".",
"Maria",
"Stolzman",
",",
"one",
"of",
"its",
"farm",
"experts",
",",
"lays",
"it",
"on",
"the",
"line",
":",
"``",
"The",
"World",
"Bank",
"will",
"be",
"brought",
"in",
"to",
"help",
"us",
"destroy",
"the",
"old",
"system",
".",
"''",
"Felix",
"Siemienas",
"is",
"destroying",
"it",
"now",
".",
"He",
"packs",
"pork",
".",
"A",
"law",
"went",
"on",
"the",
"books",
"in",
"January",
"that",
"let",
"him",
"smoke",
"bacon",
"without",
"breeding",
"pigs",
".",
"He",
"cashed",
"in",
".",
"Poland",
"is",
"short",
"on",
"enterprises",
",",
"not",
"enterprise",
".",
"``",
"I",
"pay",
"a",
"lot",
"to",
"the",
"farmer",
"and",
"five",
"times",
"the",
"state",
"salary",
"to",
"my",
"employees",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"He",
"is",
"in",
"Warsaw",
"to",
"open",
"a",
"shop",
".",
"``",
"I",
"hire",
"transportation",
",",
"and",
"my",
"customers",
"have",
"fresh",
"cold",
"cuts",
"every",
"day",
".",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"subsidize",
"anyone",
".",
"Everyone",
"around",
"me",
"lives",
"well",
".",
"Yes",
",",
"my",
"prices",
"are",
"high",
".",
"If",
"nobody",
"buys",
",",
"I",
"bring",
"my",
"prices",
"down",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"rule",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"market",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Siemienas",
"is",
"making",
"a",
"fortune",
"--",
"$",
"10,000",
"a",
"month",
",",
"he",
"says",
".",
"He",
"has",
"bought",
"some",
"trendy",
"Western",
"clothes",
",",
"and",
"a",
"green",
"Mercedes",
"with",
"an",
"American",
"flag",
"in",
"the",
"window",
".",
"But",
"the",
"meat-processing",
"machines",
"he",
"picked",
"up",
"are",
"50",
"years",
"old",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"want",
"expensive",
"machines",
".",
"If",
"the",
"situation",
"changes",
",",
"I",
"'ll",
"get",
"stuck",
"with",
"them",
".",
"''",
"That",
"'s",
"politics",
".",
"By",
"taking",
"power",
"in",
"a",
"deal",
"with",
"the",
"Peasant",
"Party",
"'s",
"onetime",
"Communist",
"stooges",
",",
"Solidarity",
"has",
"spooked",
"the",
"rural",
"entrepreneur",
".",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
"objected",
",",
"to",
"no",
"avail",
",",
"when",
"Solidarity",
"leader",
"Lech",
"Walesa",
"accepted",
"the",
"Peasants",
"'",
"support",
".",
"It",
"objected",
"again",
"in",
"September",
"when",
"Prime",
"Minister",
"Tadeusz",
"Mazowiecki",
"reluctantly",
"named",
"a",
"Peasant",
"Party",
"man",
"as",
"his",
"agriculture",
"minister",
".",
"Both",
"the",
"Peasants",
"and",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
"are",
"forming",
"new",
"political",
"parties",
"for",
"farmers",
".",
"The",
"Peasants",
"can",
"make",
"a",
"credible",
"case",
",",
"against",
"Solidarity",
",",
"that",
"hell-bent",
"reform",
"will",
"drive",
"millions",
"from",
"the",
"land",
".",
"Next",
"Spring",
",",
"the",
"two",
"will",
"battle",
"in",
"local",
"elections",
".",
"But",
"until",
"then",
",",
"and",
"probably",
"long",
"afterward",
",",
"the",
"Communists",
"'",
"apparat",
"of",
"obstruction",
"--",
"from",
"the",
"head",
"of",
"the",
"dairy",
"co-op",
"to",
"the",
"village",
"bank",
"manager",
"--",
"will",
"stay",
"planted",
"in",
"the",
"Polish",
"countryside",
".",
"``",
"We",
"know",
"how",
"to",
"get",
"from",
"capitalism",
"to",
"socialism",
",",
"''",
"Sergiusz",
"Niciporuk",
"is",
"saying",
"one",
"afternoon",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"how",
"to",
"get",
"from",
"socialism",
"to",
"capitalism",
".",
"''",
"He",
"farms",
"12",
"acres",
"in",
"Grabowiec",
",",
"two",
"miles",
"from",
"the",
"Soviet",
"border",
"in",
"one",
"of",
"Poland",
"'s",
"poorest",
"places",
".",
"Now",
"he",
"is",
"mounting",
"the",
"steps",
"of",
"a",
"stucco",
"building",
"in",
"a",
"nearby",
"village",
",",
"on",
"a",
"visit",
"to",
"the",
"Communist",
"administrator",
",",
"the",
"``",
"naczelnik",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Many",
"people",
"in",
"Poland",
"hope",
"this",
"government",
"will",
"break",
"down",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
",",
"who",
"belongs",
"to",
"the",
"local",
"council",
"and",
"to",
"Rural",
"Solidarity",
".",
"``",
"That",
"'s",
"what",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"counts",
"on",
".",
"He",
"is",
"our",
"most",
"dangerous",
"enemy",
".",
"Every",
"time",
"he",
"sees",
"me",
",",
"he",
"gets",
"very",
"nervous",
".",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"barges",
"into",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"'s",
"office",
".",
"A",
"thin",
"man",
"in",
"a",
"gray",
"suit",
"looks",
"up",
"from",
"a",
"newspaper",
".",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
"sits",
".",
"Anatol",
"Pawlowski",
"'s",
"leg",
"begins",
"jiggling",
"beneath",
"his",
"desk",
".",
"``",
"Solidarity",
"does",
"n't",
"care",
"for",
"the",
"good",
"of",
"this",
"region",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
"after",
"a",
"few",
"pleasantries",
".",
"``",
"They",
"want",
"to",
"turn",
"everything",
"upside",
"down",
"in",
"a",
"week",
".",
"Mr.",
"Niciporuk",
"here",
"wants",
"60",
"acres",
"used",
"at",
"the",
"moment",
"by",
"a",
"state",
"farm",
".",
"He",
"ca",
"n't",
"guarantee",
"that",
"he",
"can",
"use",
"it",
"any",
"better",
".",
"''",
"``",
"I",
"am",
"ready",
"at",
"any",
"moment",
"to",
"compete",
"with",
"a",
"state",
"farm",
".",
"''",
"The",
"naczelnik",
"averts",
"his",
"eyes",
".",
"``",
"What",
"have",
"you",
"got",
"?",
"Not",
"even",
"a",
"tractor",
".",
"And",
"you",
"want",
"to",
"make",
"wicker",
"baskets",
",",
"too",
".",
"''",
"``",
"I",
"can",
"do",
"five",
"things",
"at",
"once",
"--",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"businessman",
".",
"''",
"``",
"Big",
"business",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Pawlowski",
"snorts",
"in",
"English",
".",
"The",
"farmer",
"stands",
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"go",
".",
"The",
"naczelnik",
"stands",
",",
"too",
".",
"``",
"I",
"care",
"very",
"much",
"for",
"this",
"post",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"Eight",
"years",
"I",
"'ve",
"had",
"it",
".",
"A",
"cultural",
"center",
"has",
"been",
"built",
",",
"shops",
".",
"Suddenly",
",",
"I",
"am",
"not",
"a",
"comfortable",
"man",
"for",
"Solidarity",
".",
"I",
"have",
"accomplished",
"too",
"much",
".",
"They",
"want",
"to",
"do",
"more",
".",
"I",
"wish",
"them",
"all",
"the",
"best",
"!",
"''",
"The",
"farmer",
"leaves",
".",
"And",
"the",
"naczelnik",
"shuts",
"his",
"door",
"."
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"meeting",
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"held",
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"26",
".",
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",",
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".",
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".",
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",",
"it",
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"combat",
"aircraft",
".",
"The",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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".",
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",",
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"President",
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".",
"President",
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".",
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".",
"Although",
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",",
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"export-control",
"hawks",
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"and",
"the",
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".",
"``",
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"story",
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",",
"''",
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".",
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",",
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"Treaty",
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[
"Contrary",
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"R.",
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"Right",
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")",
",",
"I",
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"before",
"my",
"undergraduate",
"finance",
"students",
"and",
"proclaim",
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"the",
"findings",
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"your",
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"experiment",
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"stock",
"picking",
"is",
"completely",
"consistent",
"with",
"what",
"they",
"have",
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".",
"In",
"particular",
",",
"I",
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"your",
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"pros",
"'",
"monthly",
"selections",
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".",
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",",
"purchasing",
"the",
"four",
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"pro",
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",",
"and",
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"have",
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"$",
"166,537",
",",
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",",
"taxes",
"and",
"commissions",
".",
"In",
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",",
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"Jones",
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"only",
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".",
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"pricing",
"offer",
"a",
"perfectly",
"legitimate",
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".",
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"theories",
"state",
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"investors",
"require",
"higher",
"returns",
"on",
"riskier",
"investments",
".",
"Thus",
",",
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"the",
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",",
"I",
"see",
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"as",
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"added",
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".",
"I",
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"the",
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"each",
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"selected",
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".",
"If",
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"a",
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"with",
"the",
"highest",
"expected",
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",",
"I",
"would",
"select",
"a",
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"with",
"the",
"greatest",
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"risk",
",",
"as",
"I",
"am",
"sure",
"your",
"pros",
"do",
".",
"Your",
"hypothetical",
"investor",
"is",
"simply",
"being",
"compensated",
"for",
"taking",
"on",
"this",
"added",
"risk",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
"your",
"hypothetical",
"investor",
"has",
"forsaken",
"the",
"gains",
"to",
"be",
"had",
"in",
"reducing",
"risk",
"by",
"diversifying",
"his",
"portfolio",
".",
"A",
"four-stock",
"portfolio",
"is",
"still",
"exposed",
"to",
"a",
"great",
"deal",
"of",
"unnecessary",
"risk",
".",
"This",
"means",
"the",
"returns",
"can",
"vary",
"a",
"great",
"deal",
".",
"Mr.",
"Dorfman",
"provides",
"confirming",
"evidence",
"of",
"this",
"phenomenon",
"when",
"he",
"reports",
"that",
"your",
"staff",
"of",
"dart",
"throwers",
"would",
"have",
"accumulated",
"only",
"$",
"112,383",
"by",
"randomly",
"selecting",
"four",
"new",
"stocks",
"to",
"be",
"held",
"in",
"a",
"portfolio",
"each",
"month",
".",
"Scott",
"E.",
"Hein",
"Texas",
"Tech",
"University",
"Lubbock",
",",
"Texas",
"Your",
"Investment",
"Dartboard",
"article",
"misses",
"the",
"target",
".",
"The",
"fact",
"that",
"stock",
"pickers",
"have",
"bested",
"a",
"randomly",
"selected",
"portfolio",
"in",
"eight",
"of",
"12",
"months",
"has",
"no",
"bearing",
"on",
"the",
"efficient-market",
"theory",
".",
"What",
"matters",
"is",
"that",
"the",
"stocks",
"recommended",
"by",
"your",
"pros",
"tend",
"to",
"be",
"substantially",
"riskier",
"than",
"a",
"diversified",
"portfolio",
".",
"For",
"example",
",",
"your",
"pickers",
"'",
"recommendations",
"for",
"the",
"coming",
"month",
"are",
",",
"on",
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",",
"22.5",
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"holding",
"the",
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".",
"James",
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"for",
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"--",
"Dynascan",
"--",
"is",
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";",
"his",
"lauded",
"Thermo",
"Electron",
"pick",
"is",
"40",
"%",
"riskier",
".",
"Eric",
"C.",
"Meltzer"
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[
"Japan",
"has",
"found",
"another",
"safe",
"outlet",
"for",
"its",
"money",
":",
"U.S.",
"home",
"mortgages",
".",
"An",
"increasing",
"number",
"of",
"big",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"are",
"buying",
"up",
"U.S.",
"home",
"mortgages",
"that",
"have",
"been",
"pooled",
"and",
"packaged",
"for",
"sale",
"as",
"interest-bearing",
"instruments",
"known",
"as",
"mortgage-backed",
"securities",
".",
"As",
"much",
"as",
"10",
"%",
"of",
"new",
"U.S.",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"issued",
"by",
"the",
"Federal",
"National",
"Mortgage",
"Association",
",",
"or",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
",",
"and",
"Federal",
"Home",
"Loan",
"Mortgage",
"Corp.",
",",
"or",
"Freddie",
"Mac",
",",
"now",
"flow",
"into",
"Japanese",
"hands",
".",
"That",
"may",
"not",
"come",
"as",
"a",
"surprise",
"to",
"Americans",
"who",
"have",
"watched",
"the",
"Japanese",
"snap",
"up",
"properties",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
"from",
"golf",
"courses",
"to",
"a",
"stake",
"in",
"Rockefeller",
"Center",
".",
"But",
"it",
"marks",
"a",
"big",
"change",
"for",
"the",
"Japanese",
",",
"who",
"shunned",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"after",
"getting",
"burned",
"by",
"a",
"big",
"downturn",
"in",
"interest",
"rates",
"a",
"few",
"years",
"back",
".",
"``",
"You",
"ca",
"n't",
"say",
"it",
"'s",
"a",
"``",
"tsunami",
"''",
"(",
"tidal",
"wave",
")",
",",
"but",
"we",
"'re",
"making",
"some",
"headway",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"'s",
"chairman",
",",
"David",
"O.",
"Maxwell",
",",
"who",
"visits",
"Tokyo",
"at",
"least",
"once",
"a",
"year",
"to",
"explain",
"and",
"drum",
"up",
"investor",
"interest",
"in",
"mortgage",
"securities",
".",
"``",
"Interest",
"is",
"a",
"great",
"deal",
"higher",
"than",
"it",
"was",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
".",
"''",
"The",
"steady",
"growth",
"of",
"the",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"market",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
"has",
"even",
"triggered",
"talk",
"of",
"building",
"up",
"a",
"similar",
"market",
"here",
".",
"Evidence",
"of",
"the",
"growing",
"Japanese",
"demand",
"for",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"abounds",
".",
"Earlier",
"this",
"year",
",",
"Blackstone",
"Group",
",",
"a",
"New",
"York",
"investment",
"bank",
",",
"had",
"no",
"trouble",
"selling",
"out",
"a",
"special",
"$",
"570",
"million",
"mortgage-securities",
"trust",
"it",
"created",
"for",
"Japanese",
"investors",
".",
"Industrial",
"Bank",
"of",
"Japan",
",",
"which",
"claims",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"biggest",
"Japanese",
"buyer",
"of",
"U.S.",
"mortgage",
"securities",
",",
"says",
"it",
"will",
"more",
"than",
"double",
"its",
"purchases",
"this",
"year",
",",
"to",
"an",
"amount",
"one",
"official",
"puts",
"at",
"several",
"billion",
"dollars",
".",
"And",
"a",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"seminar",
"this",
"week",
"promises",
"to",
"draw",
"hundreds",
"of",
"prospective",
"investors",
",",
"who",
"can",
"be",
"expected",
"to",
"channel",
"tens",
"of",
"billions",
"of",
"dollars",
"into",
"the",
"market",
"in",
"the",
"next",
"few",
"years",
".",
"``",
"Last",
"year",
",",
"there",
"were",
"only",
"several",
"big",
"investors",
"who",
"were",
"interested",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Kinji",
"Kato",
",",
"a",
"vice",
"president",
"at",
"the",
"international",
"arm",
"of",
"Nomura",
"Securities",
"Co",
".",
"``",
"This",
"year",
",",
"some",
"investors",
"are",
"changing",
"their",
"policies",
"and",
"investing",
"a",
"lot",
".",
"''",
"Ultimately",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"strong",
"demand",
"could",
"help",
"to",
"drive",
"down",
"interest",
"rates",
"on",
"mortgage",
"securities",
".",
"At",
"the",
"moment",
",",
"Nomura",
"is",
"the",
"only",
"Japanese",
"institution",
"authorized",
"to",
"act",
"as",
"a",
"primary",
"seller",
"of",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"instruments",
".",
"But",
"other",
"Japanese",
"institutions",
"say",
"privately",
"that",
"they",
"are",
"considering",
"asking",
"to",
"join",
"the",
"59-dealer",
"selling",
"group",
".",
"These",
"securities",
"are",
"attractive",
"to",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"for",
"three",
"reasons",
".",
"First",
",",
"they",
"are",
"safe",
".",
"While",
"they",
"are",
"n't",
"backed",
"by",
"the",
"full",
"faith",
"and",
"credit",
"of",
"the",
"U.S.",
"government",
",",
"as",
"Treasury",
"bonds",
"are",
",",
"it",
"is",
"widely",
"assumed",
"that",
"the",
"government",
"would",
"support",
"them",
"if",
"necessary",
".",
"(",
"U.S.",
"Treasury",
"bonds",
"are",
"still",
"the",
"dollar-denominated",
"investment",
"of",
"choice",
"for",
"long-term",
"Japanese",
"investors",
")",
".",
"Second",
",",
"they",
"are",
"liquid",
".",
"The",
"secondary",
"market",
"in",
"federally",
"backed",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"now",
"exceeds",
"$",
"900",
"billion",
",",
"or",
"nearly",
"half",
"of",
"the",
"$",
"2.2",
"trillion",
"in",
"U.S.",
"residential",
"mortgages",
"issued",
".",
"Third",
",",
"they",
"offer",
"high",
"yields",
".",
"At",
"the",
"moment",
",",
"some",
"offer",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"1.6",
"to",
"1.8",
"percentage",
"points",
"over",
"Treasury",
"securities",
"of",
"similar",
"maturities",
".",
"But",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"risk",
",",
"which",
"the",
"Japanese",
"discovered",
"when",
"they",
"first",
"dipped",
"their",
"toes",
"into",
"the",
"market",
"nearly",
"five",
"years",
"ago",
".",
"Since",
"most",
"mortgages",
"can",
"be",
"prepaid",
"or",
"refinanced",
"at",
"any",
"time",
",",
"issuers",
"of",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"retain",
"the",
"right",
"to",
"buy",
"back",
"their",
"bonds",
"before",
"maturity",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"a",
"headache",
"for",
"long-term",
"investors",
",",
"since",
"it",
"forces",
"them",
"to",
"reinvest",
"their",
"money",
"--",
"usually",
"at",
"lower",
"rates",
"than",
"the",
"original",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"carried",
".",
"``",
"Two",
"or",
"three",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"the",
"problem",
"was",
"that",
"people",
"did",
"n't",
"understand",
"the",
"prepayment",
"risk",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Nomura",
"'s",
"Mr.",
"Kato",
".",
"``",
"So",
"they",
"were",
"surprised",
"and",
"very",
"disappointed",
"by",
"prepayment",
".",
"''",
"Compounding",
"the",
"trouble",
"to",
"Japanese",
"investors",
",",
"mortgage",
"securities",
"pay",
"interest",
"monthly",
",",
"since",
"most",
"mortgages",
"require",
"homeowners",
"to",
"make",
"monthly",
"payments",
".",
"But",
"Japanese",
"institutional",
"investors",
"are",
"used",
"to",
"quarterly",
"or",
"semiannual",
"payments",
"on",
"their",
"investments",
",",
"so",
"the",
"monthly",
"cash",
"flow",
"posed",
"administrative",
"problems",
".",
"As",
"a",
"result",
",",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"steered",
"clear",
"of",
"the",
"mortgage",
"securities",
".",
"But",
"they",
"did",
"n't",
"lose",
"touch",
"with",
"the",
"U.S.",
"issuers",
".",
"Since",
"1985",
",",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"have",
"bought",
"nearly",
"80",
"%",
"of",
"$",
"10",
"billion",
"in",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"corporate",
"debt",
"issued",
"to",
"foreigners",
",",
"money",
"that",
"Fannie",
"Mae",
"uses",
"to",
"buy",
"mortgages",
"from",
"U.S.",
"banks",
".",
"And",
"Japanese",
"investors",
"took",
"up",
"nearly",
"all",
"of",
"two",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"Real",
"Estate",
"Mortgage",
"Investment",
"Conduits",
",",
"a",
"kind",
"of",
"collateralized",
"mortgage",
"obligation",
",",
"that",
"were",
"offered",
"to",
"foreigners",
"this",
"year",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"further",
"packaging",
"of",
"mortgage-backed",
"securities",
",",
"such",
"as",
"Blackstone",
"'s",
"fund",
",",
"have",
"reduced",
"the",
"effects",
"of",
"prepayment",
"risk",
"and",
"automatically",
"reinvest",
"monthly",
"payments",
"so",
"institutions",
"do",
"n't",
"have",
"to",
".",
"Freddie",
"Mac",
"for",
"years",
"has",
"offered",
"a",
"so-called",
"participation",
"certificate",
"that",
"guarantees",
"it",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"prepaid",
"for",
"a",
"set",
"number",
"of",
"years",
"and",
"offers",
"semiannual",
"payments",
"."
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[
"Guardian",
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"PLC",
",",
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"a",
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".",
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"GRE",
"will",
"hold",
"in",
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"Estate",
"Agents",
".",
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"said",
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"Estate",
"Agents",
"will",
"market",
"GRE",
"life",
"insurance",
",",
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"through",
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".",
"Besides",
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",",
"GRE",
"said",
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"has",
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"insurance",
"products",
"with",
"the",
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"."
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[
"UAL",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"board",
"quashed",
"any",
"prospects",
"for",
"an",
"immediate",
"revival",
"of",
"a",
"labor-management",
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",",
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"Airlines",
"'",
"parent",
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".",
"As",
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",",
"UAL",
"'s",
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",",
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"M.",
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",",
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".",
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"put",
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"acquisition",
"attempt",
"back",
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"square",
"one",
"and",
"leaves",
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"airline",
"with",
"an",
"array",
"of",
"unresolved",
"matters",
",",
"including",
"an",
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"labor",
"situation",
"and",
"a",
"management",
"scrambling",
"to",
"restore",
"its",
"damaged",
"credibility",
".",
"The",
"effort",
"to",
"create",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"largest",
"employee-owned",
"company",
"began",
"unraveling",
"Oct.",
"13",
"when",
"the",
"labor-management",
"group",
"was",
"unable",
"to",
"obtain",
"financing",
"for",
"its",
"$",
"300-a-share",
",",
"$",
"6.79",
"billion",
"offer",
".",
"Just",
"last",
"week",
"it",
"suffered",
"another",
"major",
"setback",
"when",
"British",
"Airways",
"PLC",
",",
"the",
"largest",
"equity",
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",",
"withdrew",
"its",
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".",
"Takeover",
"stock",
"traders",
",",
"focusing",
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"'s",
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"independent",
",",
"took",
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"announcement",
"as",
"bad",
"news",
".",
"UAL",
",",
"which",
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"$",
"9.875",
"to",
"$",
"178.375",
"in",
"composite",
"trading",
"on",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
"on",
"reports",
"of",
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"new",
"bid",
"being",
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"the",
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",",
"reversed",
"course",
"and",
"plummeted",
"in",
"off-exchange",
"trading",
"after",
"the",
"5:09",
"p.m.",
"EDT",
"announcement",
".",
"Among",
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"first",
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"reported",
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"the",
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"firm",
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"Jefferies",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
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"a",
"market",
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"UAL",
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"exchange",
"is",
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",",
"were",
"10,000",
"shares",
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"170",
",",
"6,000",
"shares",
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"162",
",",
"2,500",
"at",
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"162",
",",
"and",
"10,000",
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"$",
"158",
".",
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"Monday",
"was",
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"first",
"daily",
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"after",
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"losses",
"left",
"the",
"price",
"41",
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"level",
"before",
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"13",
",",
"the",
"day",
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"the",
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"financing",
"could",
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"deal",
".",
"Twelve",
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"'s",
"outside",
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"met",
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"meeting",
"yesterday",
"in",
"Chicago",
"to",
"consider",
"an",
"informal",
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"the",
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"group",
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"a",
"revised",
"bid",
".",
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"the",
"board",
"said",
"it",
"was",
"n't",
"interested",
"for",
"now",
".",
"That",
"proposal",
",",
"valued",
"at",
"between",
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"225",
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"$",
"240",
"a",
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",",
"would",
"have",
"transferred",
"majority",
"ownership",
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"employees",
"while",
"leaving",
"some",
"stock",
"in",
"public",
"hands",
".",
"The",
"buy-out",
"group",
"had",
"no",
"firm",
"financing",
"for",
"the",
"plan",
".",
"And",
",",
"with",
"no",
"other",
"offers",
"on",
"the",
"table",
",",
"the",
"board",
"apparently",
"felt",
"no",
"pressure",
"to",
"act",
"on",
"it",
".",
"The",
"directors",
"signaled",
",",
"however",
",",
"that",
"they",
"would",
"be",
"willing",
"to",
"consider",
"future",
"offers",
"or",
"take",
"some",
"other",
"action",
"to",
"maximize",
"shareholder",
"value",
",",
"saying",
"they",
"would",
"continue",
"to",
"explore",
"``",
"all",
"strategic",
"and",
"financial",
"alternatives",
".",
"''",
"But",
"it",
"was",
"clear",
"that",
"for",
"the",
"time",
"being",
",",
"the",
"board",
"wants",
"the",
"company",
"to",
"return",
"to",
"normalcy",
".",
"The",
"board",
"said",
"it",
"concluded",
"that",
"``",
"the",
"welfare",
"of",
"the",
"company",
",",
"its",
"shareholders",
",",
"its",
"employees",
"and",
"the",
"broader",
"public",
"...",
"can",
"best",
"be",
"enhanced",
"by",
"continued",
"development",
"of",
"UAL",
"as",
"a",
"strong",
",",
"viable",
",",
"independent",
"company",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"urged",
"all",
"employees",
"to",
"``",
"now",
"turn",
"their",
"full",
"attention",
"''",
"to",
"operating",
"the",
"airline",
".",
"He",
"also",
"vowed",
"to",
"``",
"make",
"every",
"effort",
"to",
"nurture",
"...",
"a",
"constructive",
"new",
"relationship",
"that",
"has",
"been",
"forged",
"with",
"participating",
"employee",
"groups",
".",
"''",
"But",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"faces",
"a",
"monumental",
"task",
"in",
"pulling",
"the",
"company",
"back",
"together",
"again",
".",
"Labor",
"problems",
"top",
"the",
"list",
".",
"For",
"a",
"brief",
"time",
",",
"the",
"buy-out",
"effort",
"seemed",
"to",
"solve",
"his",
"problems",
"with",
"United",
"'s",
"pilot",
"union",
".",
"In",
"return",
"for",
"an",
"ownership",
"stake",
"in",
"the",
"company",
",",
"the",
"pilots",
"were",
"willing",
"to",
"agree",
"to",
"a",
"seven-year",
"contract",
"that",
"included",
"a",
"no-strike",
"clause",
"and",
"significant",
"wage",
"concessions",
"and",
"productivity",
"gains",
"the",
"union",
"previously",
"resisted",
".",
"That",
"contract",
"was",
"tied",
"to",
"the",
"success",
"of",
"the",
"buy-out",
".",
"As",
"a",
"``",
"good-will",
"measure",
",",
"''",
"the",
"pilots",
"had",
"been",
"working",
"four",
"extra",
"hours",
"a",
"month",
"and",
"had",
"agreed",
"to",
"fly",
"UAL",
"'s",
"two",
"new",
"Boeing",
"747-400",
"aircraft",
".",
"It",
"'s",
"uncertain",
"if",
"the",
"pilots",
"will",
"continue",
"to",
"do",
"so",
"without",
"a",
"contract",
"settlement",
".",
"The",
"union",
"said",
"late",
"last",
"night",
"that",
"it",
"is",
"still",
"committed",
"to",
"majority",
"employee",
"ownership",
"and",
"that",
"the",
"labor",
"disputes",
"that",
"faced",
"the",
"company",
"prior",
"to",
"the",
"buy-out",
"effort",
"``",
"still",
"need",
"to",
"be",
"addressed",
".",
"''",
"The",
"buy-out",
"effort",
"also",
"worsened",
"already-strained",
"relations",
"between",
"United",
"'s",
"pilot",
"and",
"machinist",
"unions",
".",
"The",
"machinists",
"'",
"criticisms",
"of",
"the",
"labor-management",
"bid",
"and",
"their",
"threats",
"of",
"a",
"strike",
"unless",
"they",
"received",
"substantial",
"wage",
"increases",
"this",
"year",
"helped",
"cool",
"banks",
"'",
"interest",
"in",
"financing",
"the",
"transaction",
".",
"The",
"machinists",
"previously",
"had",
"shown",
"themselves",
"to",
"be",
"an",
"ally",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
",",
"but",
"he",
"lost",
"much",
"of",
"his",
"credibility",
"with",
"that",
"group",
"when",
"he",
"teamed",
"up",
"with",
"the",
"pilot",
"union",
".",
"The",
"machinists",
"criticized",
"the",
"terms",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"and",
"management",
"received",
"in",
"the",
"buy-out",
".",
"They",
"paid",
"$",
"15",
"million",
"for",
"a",
"1",
"%",
"stake",
"and",
"received",
"an",
"additional",
"9",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"at",
"no",
"additional",
"cost",
".",
"His",
"credibility",
"is",
"also",
"on",
"the",
"line",
"in",
"the",
"investment",
"community",
".",
"Until",
"the",
"collapse",
"of",
"this",
"bid",
",",
"Mr.",
"Wolf",
"was",
"regarded",
"as",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"savviest",
"airline",
"executives",
"after",
"engineering",
"turnarounds",
"of",
"Tiger",
"International",
"Inc.",
"and",
"Republic",
"Airlines",
".",
"But",
"he",
"and",
"his",
"chief",
"financial",
"officer",
",",
"John",
"Pope",
",",
"sowed",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"seeds",
"for",
"the",
"deal",
"'s",
"failure",
"by",
"insisting",
"banks",
"accept",
"low",
"financing",
"fees",
"and",
"interest",
"rates",
",",
"while",
"they",
"invested",
"in",
"the",
"transaction",
"only",
"a",
"small",
"fraction",
"of",
"the",
"$",
"114.3",
"million",
"they",
"stood",
"to",
"gain",
"from",
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"&",
"Johnson",
"to",
"its",
"lawsuit",
"challenging",
"a",
"university",
"faculty",
"member",
"over",
"rights",
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"acne",
"medicine",
".",
"University",
"Patents",
"Inc.",
",",
"based",
"in",
"Westport",
",",
"Conn.",
",",
"said",
"it",
"seeks",
"Johnson",
"&",
"Johnson",
"'s",
"profits",
"from",
"sales",
"of",
"Retin-A",
",",
"estimated",
"at",
"$",
"50",
"million",
",",
"a",
"similar",
"amount",
"of",
"punitive",
"damages",
"and",
"the",
"right",
"to",
"license",
"Retin-A",
"elsewhere",
".",
"In",
"May",
",",
"University",
"Patents",
"filed",
"a",
"suit",
"in",
"federal",
"court",
"in",
"Philadelphia",
"against",
"Albert",
"M.",
"Kligman",
",",
"a",
"researcher",
"and",
"professor",
"at",
"the",
"University",
"of",
"Pennsylvania",
"School",
"of",
"Medicine",
"who",
"developed",
"Retin-A",
"in",
"the",
"1960s",
"to",
"combat",
"acne",
".",
"Dr.",
"Kligman",
"patented",
"the",
"medicine",
"while",
"employed",
"by",
"the",
"University",
",",
"but",
"later",
"licensed",
"the",
"Retin-A",
"to",
"a",
"division",
"of",
"Johnson",
"&",
"Johnson",
".",
"In",
"New",
"Brunswick",
",",
"N.J.",
",",
"a",
"Johnson",
"&",
"Johnson",
"spokesman",
"declined",
"comment",
"."
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[
"William",
"Seidman",
",",
"chairman",
"of",
"the",
"Federal",
"Deposit",
"Insurance",
"Corp.",
",",
"said",
"Lincoln",
"Savings",
"&",
"Loan",
"Association",
"should",
"have",
"been",
"seized",
"by",
"the",
"government",
"in",
"1986",
"to",
"contain",
"losses",
"that",
"he",
"estimated",
"will",
"cost",
"taxpayers",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"$",
"2",
"billion",
".",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
",",
"who",
"has",
"been",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"top",
"bank",
"regulator",
",",
"inherited",
"the",
"problems",
"of",
"Lincoln",
",",
"based",
"in",
"Irvine",
",",
"Calif.",
",",
"after",
"his",
"regulatory",
"role",
"was",
"expanded",
"by",
"the",
"new",
"savings-and-loan",
"bailout",
"law",
".",
"He",
"made",
"his",
"comments",
"before",
"House",
"Banking",
"Committee",
"hearings",
"to",
"investigate",
"what",
"appears",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"biggest",
"thrift",
"disaster",
"in",
"a",
"scandal-ridden",
"industry",
".",
"The",
"inquiry",
"also",
"will",
"cover",
"the",
"actions",
"of",
"Charles",
"Keating",
"Jr.",
",",
"who",
"is",
"chairman",
"of",
"American",
"Continental",
"Corp.",
",",
"Lincoln",
"'s",
"parent",
",",
"and",
"who",
"contributed",
"heavily",
"to",
"several",
"U.S.",
"senators",
".",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"told",
"the",
"committee",
"that",
"the",
"Resolution",
"Trust",
"Corp.",
",",
"the",
"agency",
"created",
"to",
"sell",
"sick",
"thrifts",
",",
"has",
"studied",
"Lincoln",
"'s",
"examination",
"reports",
"by",
"former",
"regulators",
"dating",
"back",
"to",
"1986",
".",
"``",
"My",
"staff",
"indicated",
"that",
"had",
"we",
"made",
"such",
"findings",
"in",
"one",
"of",
"our",
"own",
"institutions",
",",
"we",
"would",
"have",
"sought",
"an",
"immediate",
"cease-and-desist",
"order",
"to",
"stop",
"the",
"hazardous",
"operations",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"said",
".",
"When",
"Lincoln",
"was",
"seized",
"by",
"the",
"government",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"15",
"%",
"of",
"its",
"loans",
",",
"or",
"$",
"250",
"million",
",",
"were",
"to",
"borrowers",
"who",
"were",
"buying",
"real",
"estate",
"from",
"one",
"of",
"American",
"Continental",
"'s",
"50",
"other",
"subsidiaries",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
".",
"But",
"the",
"government",
"did",
"n't",
"step",
"in",
"until",
"six",
"months",
"ago",
",",
"when",
"thrift",
"officials",
"put",
"Lincoln",
"into",
"conservatorship",
"--",
"the",
"day",
"after",
"American",
"Continental",
"filed",
"for",
"Chapter",
"11",
"bankruptcy",
"protection",
"from",
"creditors",
".",
"The",
"bankruptcy",
"filing",
",",
"the",
"government",
"has",
"charged",
"in",
"a",
"$",
"1.1",
"billion",
"civil",
"lawsuit",
",",
"was",
"part",
"of",
"a",
"pattern",
"to",
"shift",
"insured",
"deposits",
"to",
"the",
"parent",
"company",
",",
"which",
"used",
"the",
"deposits",
"as",
"a",
"cache",
"for",
"real-estate",
"deals",
".",
"The",
"deposits",
"that",
"have",
"been",
"transferred",
"to",
"other",
"subsidiaries",
"are",
"now",
"under",
"the",
"jurisdiction",
"of",
"the",
"bankruptcy",
"court",
".",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"it",
"'s",
"fairly",
"clear",
"-LCB-",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
"-RCB-",
"knew",
",",
"''",
"that",
"regulators",
"were",
"set",
"to",
"seize",
"Lincoln",
",",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"said",
".",
"Further",
"investigation",
",",
"he",
"said",
",",
"may",
"result",
"in",
"further",
"actions",
"against",
"Lincoln",
"'s",
"executives",
",",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
",",
"``",
"including",
"fraud",
"actions",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
",",
"for",
"his",
"part",
",",
"has",
"filed",
"suit",
"alleging",
"that",
"regulators",
"unlawfully",
"seized",
"the",
"thrift",
".",
"Leonard",
"Bickwit",
",",
"an",
"attorney",
"in",
"Washington",
"for",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
",",
"declined",
"to",
"comment",
"on",
"the",
"hearings",
",",
"except",
"to",
"say",
",",
"``",
"We",
"will",
"be",
"responding",
"comprehensively",
"in",
"several",
"forums",
"to",
"each",
"of",
"these",
"allegations",
"at",
"the",
"appropriate",
"time",
".",
"''",
"Lincoln",
"'s",
"treatment",
"by",
"former",
"thrift",
"regulators",
",",
"in",
"an",
"agency",
"disbanded",
"by",
"the",
"new",
"law",
",",
"has",
"proved",
"embarrassing",
"for",
"five",
"senators",
"who",
"received",
"thousands",
"of",
"dollars",
"in",
"campaign",
"contributions",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
".",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"said",
"yesterday",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"that",
"Sen.",
"Dennis",
"DeConcini",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Ariz.",
")",
",",
"who",
"received",
"$",
"48,100",
"in",
"contributions",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
",",
"phoned",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"to",
"request",
"that",
"he",
"push",
"for",
"a",
"sale",
"of",
"Lincoln",
"before",
"it",
"would",
"be",
"seized",
".",
"After",
"the",
"government",
"lawsuit",
"was",
"filed",
"against",
"Lincoln",
",",
"Sen.",
"DeConcini",
"returned",
"the",
"campaign",
"contributions",
".",
"The",
"senator",
"'s",
"spokesman",
"said",
"yesterday",
"that",
"he",
"pushed",
"for",
"the",
"sale",
"of",
"Lincoln",
"because",
"``",
"hundreds",
"of",
"Arizona",
"jobs",
"-LCB-",
"at",
"Lincoln",
"-RCB-",
"were",
"on",
"the",
"line",
".",
"''",
"Senate",
"Banking",
"Committee",
"Chairman",
"Donald",
"Riegle",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Mich",
".",
")",
"has",
"also",
"returned",
"contributions",
"he",
"received",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
".",
"Sens.",
"John",
"Glenn",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Ohio",
")",
",",
"John",
"McCain",
",",
"(",
"R.",
",",
"Ariz.",
")",
"and",
"Alan",
"Cranston",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Calif.",
")",
"also",
"received",
"substantial",
"contributions",
"from",
"Mr.",
"Keating",
"and",
"sought",
"to",
"intervene",
"on",
"behalf",
"of",
"Lincoln",
".",
"House",
"Banking",
"Committee",
"Chairman",
"Henry",
"Gonzalez",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Texas",
")",
"said",
"Sen.",
"Cranston",
"volunteered",
"to",
"appear",
"before",
"the",
"House",
"committee",
",",
"if",
"necessary",
".",
"But",
"a",
"committee",
"staff",
"member",
"said",
"the",
"panel",
"is",
"unlikely",
"to",
"pursue",
"closely",
"the",
"role",
"of",
"the",
"senators",
".",
"At",
"the",
"hearing",
",",
"Mr.",
"Seidman",
"said",
"the",
"RTC",
"has",
"already",
"pumped",
"$",
"729",
"million",
"into",
"Lincoln",
"for",
"liquidity",
".",
"He",
"also",
"held",
"out",
"little",
"hope",
"of",
"restitution",
"for",
"purchasers",
"of",
"$",
"225",
"million",
"in",
"American",
"Continental",
"subordinated",
"debt",
".",
"Some",
"of",
"those",
"debtholders",
"have",
"filed",
"a",
"suit",
",",
"saying",
"they",
"believed",
"they",
"were",
"buying",
"government-insured",
"certificates",
"of",
"deposit",
".",
"``",
"We",
"have",
"no",
"plans",
"at",
"this",
"time",
"to",
"pay",
"off",
"those",
"notes",
",",
"''",
"he",
"said",
"."
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[
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"?",
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"Jay",
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"Owings",
",",
"Md",
"."
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[
"USX",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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"wo",
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"the",
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"statement",
"until",
"Mr.",
"Williams",
"has",
"studied",
"it",
",",
"the",
"spokesman",
"said",
"."
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[
"Stock-market",
"fears",
"and",
"relatively",
"more",
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"interest",
"rates",
"pushed",
"money-market",
"mutual",
"fund",
"assets",
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"in",
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"latest",
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",",
"the",
"sharpest",
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"almost",
"two",
"years",
".",
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"473",
"funds",
"tracked",
"by",
"the",
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"Company",
"Institute",
",",
"a",
"Washington-based",
"trade",
"group",
",",
"rose",
"to",
"$",
"356.1",
"billion",
",",
"a",
"record",
".",
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"$",
"6.07",
"billion",
"increase",
"was",
"the",
"strongest",
"weekly",
"inflow",
"since",
"January",
"1988",
".",
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"was",
"spread",
"fairly",
"evenly",
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"all",
"three",
"types",
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"funds",
".",
"Individual",
"investors",
",",
"represented",
"in",
"the",
"general-purpose",
"and",
"broker-dealer",
"fund",
"categories",
",",
"pulled",
"money",
"from",
"the",
"stock",
"market",
"after",
"its",
"big",
"drop",
"last",
"Friday",
"and",
"put",
"the",
"money",
"into",
"funds",
",",
"said",
"Jacob",
"Dreyer",
",",
"vice",
"president",
"and",
"chief",
"economist",
"of",
"the",
"Institute",
".",
"``",
"Insitutional",
"investors",
",",
"on",
"the",
"other",
"hand",
",",
"reacted",
"to",
"the",
"steep",
"decline",
"in",
"yields",
"on",
"direct",
"money-market",
"instruments",
"following",
"the",
"stock-market",
"decline",
"last",
"Friday",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Dreyer",
"said",
".",
"Yields",
"on",
"money",
"funds",
"dropped",
"in",
"the",
"week",
"ended",
"Tuesday",
",",
"according",
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"Donoghue",
"'s",
"Money",
"Fund",
"Report",
",",
"a",
"Holliston",
",",
"Mass.",
",",
"newsletter",
".",
"The",
"average",
"seven-day",
"compounded",
"yield",
"fell",
"to",
"8.55",
"%",
"from",
"8.60",
"%",
"the",
"week",
"earlier",
",",
"Donoghue",
"'s",
"said",
".",
"At",
"the",
"auction",
"of",
"six-month",
"U.S.",
"Treasury",
"bills",
"on",
"Monday",
",",
"the",
"average",
"yield",
"fell",
"to",
"7.61",
"%",
"from",
"7.82",
"%",
".",
"Likewise",
",",
"certificates",
"of",
"deposit",
"on",
"average",
"posted",
"lower",
"yields",
"in",
"the",
"week",
"ended",
"Tuesday",
".",
"The",
"142",
"institutional-type",
"money",
"funds",
"rose",
"$",
"2.23",
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"to",
"$",
"85.49",
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".",
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"235",
"general-purpose",
"funds",
"increased",
"$",
"2.53",
"billion",
"to",
"$",
"116.56",
"billion",
",",
"while",
"96",
"broker-dealer",
"funds",
"increased",
"$",
"1.3",
"billion",
"to",
"$",
"154.05",
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"."
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[
"The",
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"State",
"Bank",
"announced",
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"90",
"%",
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"of",
"the",
"ruble",
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",",
"in",
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".",
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",",
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",",
"will",
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".",
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"will",
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"based",
"on",
"the",
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"about",
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"the",
"dollar",
".",
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"citizens",
"who",
"travel",
"abroad",
"for",
"business",
"or",
"tourism",
",",
"the",
"rate",
"will",
"jump",
"to",
"6.26",
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"to",
"the",
"dollar",
".",
"Tass",
"news",
"agency",
"said",
"the",
"devaluation",
"also",
"will",
"apply",
"to",
"foreigners",
"'",
"transactions",
".",
"But",
"it",
"did",
"n't",
"elaborate",
",",
"and",
"it",
"remains",
"unclear",
"how",
"far",
"Western",
"tourists",
"and",
"foreigners",
"living",
"in",
"Moscow",
"will",
"be",
"allowed",
"to",
"benefit",
"from",
"the",
"sweeping",
"rate",
"cut",
".",
"The",
"current",
"ruble",
"rate",
"has",
"long",
"been",
"out",
"of",
"line",
"with",
"the",
"black",
"market",
".",
"As",
"Soviet",
"leader",
"Mikhail",
"Gorbachev",
"has",
"opened",
"up",
"the",
"country",
"to",
"foreign",
"trade",
",",
"the",
"discrepancy",
"has",
"become",
"ever",
"greater",
".",
"Western",
"tourists",
"in",
"the",
"Soviet",
"Union",
"who",
"could",
"exchange",
"a",
"dollar",
"--",
"albeit",
"illegally",
"--",
"for",
"about",
"four",
"rubles",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
"are",
"now",
"being",
"offered",
"15",
"rubles",
"or",
"more",
".",
"Even",
"at",
"such",
"rates",
",",
"black",
"marketeers",
"have",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"make",
"big",
"profits",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"dire",
"shortage",
"of",
"consumer",
"goods",
"here",
".",
"They",
"use",
"dollars",
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"Western",
"items",
"such",
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"video",
"recorders",
"and",
"personal",
"computers",
"and",
"then",
"sell",
"them",
"at",
"a",
"huge",
"mark-up",
".",
"The",
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".",
"Even",
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"20",
"Western",
"cigarettes",
"can",
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"20",
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"more",
".",
"With",
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"300",
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"rubles",
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"savings",
"accounts",
"and",
"little",
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",",
"Soviet",
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"grumble",
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"--",
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"they",
"buy",
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".",
"Moscow",
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"the",
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",",
"announcing",
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"August",
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"it",
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"Soviet",
"farmers",
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"and",
"other",
"produce",
"that",
"they",
"grow",
"in",
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"state-plan",
"quotas",
".",
"``",
"The",
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",",
"''",
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"--",
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".",
"Rumors",
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",",
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"Western",
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".",
"``",
"It",
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"''",
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",",
"will",
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"Economic",
"Affairs",
"is",
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"currency",
".",
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",",
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",",
"have",
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".",
"Soviet",
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",",
"and",
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".",
"The",
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",",
"using",
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".",
"If",
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",",
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",",
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";",
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",",
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":",
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".",
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",",
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"life",
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".",
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",",
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"30",
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"13",
".",
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",",
"Mr.",
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".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Mulford",
",",
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",",
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"``",
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".",
"''",
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".",
"Fed",
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"Manuel",
"Johnson",
",",
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",",
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",",
"``",
"I",
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"''",
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",",
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".",
"Rep.",
"John",
"LaFalce",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"N.Y",
".",
")",
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",",
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"``",
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".",
"''",
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",",
"these",
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"are",
"minor",
".",
"''",
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",",
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".",
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"the",
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",",
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"."
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"amod",
"amod",
"ccomp",
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] |
[
"At",
"a",
"time",
"when",
"foreign",
"banks",
"are",
"pouring",
"vast",
"resources",
"and",
"personnel",
"into",
"West",
"Germany",
"'s",
"financial",
"center",
",",
"the",
"opening",
"of",
"a",
"three-man",
"office",
"on",
"a",
"Frankfurt",
"side",
"street",
"should",
"n't",
"attract",
"much",
"attention",
".",
"Unless",
",",
"of",
"course",
",",
"it",
"happens",
"to",
"be",
"run",
"by",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
".",
"After",
"an",
"88-year",
"absence",
"from",
"the",
"birthplace",
"of",
"the",
"family",
"banking",
"empire",
",",
"the",
"return",
"of",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"group",
"to",
"Frankfurt",
"was",
"greeted",
"by",
"the",
"glare",
"of",
"television",
"lights",
",",
"curious",
"reporters",
"and",
"a",
"mayoral",
"reception",
"in",
"Town",
"Hall",
".",
"Like",
"other",
"foreign",
"banks",
"establishing",
"a",
"presence",
"here",
",",
"the",
"family",
"describes",
"its",
"move",
"as",
"a",
"calculated",
"decision",
"to",
"set",
"up",
"a",
"financial",
"services",
"outlet",
"in",
"Europe",
"'s",
"largest",
"economy",
"ahead",
"of",
"the",
"integration",
"of",
"European",
"Community",
"markets",
"after",
"1992",
".",
"Yet",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"do",
"n't",
"deny",
"an",
"emotional",
"element",
"to",
"the",
"decision",
".",
"In",
"1796",
",",
"Mayer",
"Amschel",
"Rothschild",
"founded",
"Bankhaus",
"M.A.",
"Rothschild",
"&",
"Sons",
"and",
"later",
"sent",
"his",
"four",
"sons",
"to",
"London",
",",
"Paris",
",",
"Vienna",
"and",
"Naples",
"to",
"begin",
"the",
"bank",
"'s",
"expansion",
"during",
"the",
"early",
"19th",
"century",
".",
"The",
"original",
"bank",
"in",
"Frankfurt",
"closed",
"in",
"1901",
"after",
"the",
"death",
"of",
"Wilhelm",
"Carl",
"von",
"Rothschild",
",",
"and",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"banking",
"activities",
"focused",
"on",
"London",
"and",
"Paris",
".",
"Baron",
"Elie",
"de",
"Rothschild",
",",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"elder",
"spokesman",
",",
"explains",
"that",
"by",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"19th",
"century",
",",
"Berlin",
"had",
"replaced",
"Frankfurt",
"as",
"Germany",
"'s",
"financial",
"center",
".",
"Yet",
"the",
"chief",
"reason",
"for",
"the",
"closure",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"was",
"rooted",
"in",
"a",
"family",
"tradition",
"that",
"would",
"n't",
"allow",
"a",
"bank",
"to",
"bear",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"name",
"without",
"a",
"Rothschild",
"in",
"its",
"management",
".",
"``",
"At",
"the",
"time",
"we",
"had",
"only",
"daughters",
",",
"''",
"explains",
"the",
"72-year-old",
"patriarch",
",",
"``",
"so",
"we",
"had",
"to",
"close",
"the",
"bank",
".",
"''",
"Much",
"of",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"mystique",
"remained",
".",
"Although",
"its",
"palatial",
"residence",
"was",
"destroyed",
"by",
"bombs",
"during",
"World",
"War",
"II",
",",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"'",
"place",
"in",
"Frankfurt",
"'s",
"history",
"is",
"still",
"recalled",
"by",
"the",
"city",
"park",
"and",
"a",
"street",
"bearing",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"name",
".",
"The",
"family",
"'s",
"long",
"absence",
"is",
"understandable",
".",
"The",
"family",
"was",
"in",
"Allied",
"countries",
"during",
"both",
"World",
"War",
"I",
"and",
"the",
"long",
"period",
"of",
"economic",
"strife",
"of",
"the",
"1920s",
".",
"During",
"the",
"Third",
"Reich",
",",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"were",
"a",
"target",
"of",
"Nazi",
"propaganda",
"against",
"Jewish",
"financiers",
".",
"The",
"persecution",
"pursued",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"across",
"Europe",
"as",
"the",
"Nazis",
"grabbed",
"countries",
",",
"confiscating",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"property",
"in",
"the",
"process",
".",
"American",
"journalist",
"William",
"L.",
"Shirer",
",",
"in",
"his",
"book",
"``",
"The",
"Rise",
"and",
"Fall",
"of",
"the",
"Third",
"Reich",
",",
"''",
"wrote",
"of",
"how",
"in",
"Vienna",
"he",
"had",
"witnessed",
"``",
"squads",
"of",
"-LCB-",
"Nazi",
"-RCB-",
"SS",
"men",
"carting",
"off",
"silver",
",",
"tapestries",
",",
"paintings",
"and",
"other",
"loot",
"from",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"palace",
".",
"''",
"In",
"the",
"immediate",
"postwar",
"years",
",",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"concentrated",
"on",
"rebuilding",
"their",
"other",
"European",
"operations",
",",
"delaying",
"their",
"return",
"to",
"Frankfurt",
".",
"``",
"For",
"a",
"member",
"of",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"family",
",",
"the",
"return",
"to",
"Frankfurt",
"is",
"a",
"very",
"meaningful",
"event",
",",
"although",
"it",
"might",
"not",
"mean",
"as",
"much",
"to",
"German",
"banking",
"as",
"it",
"means",
"to",
"us",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Baron",
"David",
"de",
"Rothschild",
",",
"Elie",
"'s",
"younger",
"cousin",
"and",
"a",
"partner",
"in",
"Rothschild",
"&",
"Cie",
".",
"Banque",
"in",
"Paris",
".",
"Indeed",
",",
"the",
"competition",
"is",
"n't",
"greatly",
"concerned",
".",
"``",
"It",
"would",
"be",
"surprising",
"if",
"they",
"did",
"n't",
"come",
"to",
"Frankfurt",
"in",
"time",
"for",
"1992",
",",
"and",
"they",
"bring",
"an",
"interesting",
"tradition",
".",
"But",
"the",
"market",
"really",
"is",
"n't",
"going",
"to",
"be",
"stood",
"on",
"its",
"head",
",",
"''",
"said",
"a",
"banker",
"at",
"one",
"of",
"Frankfurt",
"'s",
"Big",
"Three",
"banks",
".",
"The",
"return",
"of",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"is",
"modest",
".",
"The",
"new",
"representative",
"office",
",",
"with",
"one",
"manager",
"and",
"two",
"assistants",
"--",
"none",
"a",
"member",
"of",
"the",
"Rothschild",
"family",
"--",
"will",
"carry",
"out",
"no",
"banking",
"operations",
"of",
"its",
"own",
".",
"Instead",
",",
"it",
"is",
"to",
"seek",
"out",
"corporate",
"financing",
"business",
"and",
"sell",
"investment",
"products",
"on",
"behalf",
"of",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"mainstay",
"banking",
"units",
":",
"N",
"M",
"Rothschild",
"&",
"Sons",
"Ltd.",
"in",
"London",
",",
"Rothschild",
"&",
"Cie.",
"in",
"Paris",
"and",
"Rothschild",
"Bank",
"AG",
"in",
"Zurich",
".",
"The",
"constraints",
"do",
"n't",
"bother",
"the",
"office",
"'s",
"54-year-old",
"manager",
",",
"Erich",
"Stromeyer",
".",
"He",
"left",
"his",
"job",
"as",
"general",
"manager",
"of",
"Shearson",
"Lehman",
"Hutton",
"Holdings",
"Inc.",
"'s",
"Frankfurt",
"office",
"because",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"``",
"When",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"called",
",",
"I",
"could",
"n't",
"resist",
".",
"''",
"Each",
"Rothschild",
"bank",
"is",
"linked",
"by",
"family",
"ties",
"and",
"cross-ownership",
".",
"In",
"March",
",",
"N",
"M",
"Rothschild",
"in",
"London",
"and",
"Rothschild",
"Bank",
"in",
"Zurich",
"showed",
"assets",
"of",
"#",
"4.1",
"billion",
"(",
"$",
"6.51",
"billion",
")",
"and",
"1.26",
"billion",
"Swiss",
"francs",
"(",
"$",
"774",
"million",
")",
",",
"respectively",
".",
"The",
"Paris",
"bank",
"does",
"n't",
"publish",
"that",
"figure",
".",
"In",
"Europe",
",",
"the",
"Rothschilds",
"banks",
"are",
"focusing",
"on",
"mergers",
"and",
"acquisitions",
"as",
"European",
"industry",
"restructures",
"ahead",
"of",
"1992",
".",
"Yet",
"the",
"group",
"'s",
"limited",
"resources",
"makes",
"it",
"a",
"niche",
"player",
".",
"``",
"Obviously",
",",
"there",
"are",
"quantitative",
"limitations",
"on",
"the",
"assistance",
"we",
"can",
"provide",
",",
"''",
"concedes",
"Baron",
"David",
"de",
"Rothschild",
",",
"``",
"but",
"we",
"feel",
"we",
"have",
"some",
"cards",
"to",
"play",
".",
"''",
"Among",
"them",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"is",
"the",
"family",
"'s",
"traditional",
"ties",
"to",
"old",
"wealth",
"and",
"decision-makers",
"in",
"banking",
"and",
"industry",
"throughout",
"Europe",
"and",
"beyond",
".",
"The",
"Rothschilds",
"hope",
"to",
"use",
"a",
"long",
"history",
"in",
"private",
"banking",
"and",
"an",
"aura",
"of",
"exclusivity",
"to",
"attract",
"private",
"and",
"institutional",
"investors",
".",
"As",
"at",
"the",
"Zurich",
"bank",
",",
"the",
"minimum",
"investment",
"for",
"individuals",
"will",
"be",
"high",
":",
"about",
"a",
"million",
"German",
"marks",
"(",
"$",
"538,000",
")",
",",
"three",
"times",
"what",
"many",
"other",
"West",
"German",
"investment",
"banks",
"require",
".",
"``",
"But",
"we",
"do",
"make",
"exceptions",
",",
"''",
"says",
"a",
"smiling",
"Baron",
"Elie",
"de",
"Rothschild",
",",
"``",
"especially",
"if",
"they",
"are",
"very",
"young",
"and",
"have",
"very",
"rich",
"parents",
"."
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[
"The",
"Chicago",
"Mercantile",
"Exchange",
"said",
"it",
"plans",
"to",
"institute",
"an",
"additional",
"``",
"circuit",
"breaker",
"''",
"aimed",
"at",
"stemming",
"market",
"slides",
".",
"Separately",
",",
"John",
"Phelan",
"told",
"a",
"closed",
"House",
"subcommittee",
"meeting",
"in",
"Washington",
"that",
"he",
"would",
"support",
"Securities",
"and",
"Exchange",
"Commission",
"halts",
"of",
"program",
"trading",
"during",
"market",
"emergencies",
".",
"But",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
"chairman",
"said",
"he",
"does",
"n't",
"support",
"reinstating",
"a",
"``",
"collar",
"''",
"on",
"program",
"trading",
",",
"arguing",
"that",
"firms",
"could",
"get",
"around",
"such",
"a",
"limit",
".",
"The",
"Chicago",
"Merc",
"said",
"a",
"new",
"one-hour",
"price",
"limit",
"would",
"take",
"effect",
"in",
"its",
"Standard",
"&",
"Poor",
"'s",
"500",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"pit",
"once",
"S&P",
"500",
"futures",
"fell",
"20",
"index",
"points",
"--",
"the",
"equivalent",
"of",
"about",
"a",
"150-point",
"drop",
"in",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"Industrial",
"Average",
".",
"If",
"the",
"20-point",
"limit",
"is",
"triggered",
"after",
"1:30",
"p.m",
".",
"Chicago",
"time",
",",
"it",
"would",
"remain",
"in",
"effect",
"until",
"the",
"normal",
"close",
"of",
"trading",
"at",
"3:15",
"p.m",
".",
"With",
"the",
"limit",
"in",
"effect",
",",
"members",
"would",
"be",
"able",
"to",
"execute",
"trades",
"at",
"the",
"limit",
"price",
"or",
"at",
"higher",
"prices",
",",
"but",
"not",
"below",
"it",
".",
"The",
"exchange",
"said",
"it",
"decided",
"a",
"new",
"circuit",
"breaker",
"was",
"needed",
"following",
"a",
"review",
"of",
"the",
"tumultuous",
"trading",
"in",
"stocks",
"and",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"on",
"Friday",
"Oct.",
"13",
",",
"when",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"industrials",
"plunged",
"190",
"points",
"and",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"prices",
"skidded",
"as",
"well",
".",
"Late",
"that",
"afternoon",
"the",
"S&P",
"500",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"contract",
"fell",
"a",
"total",
"of",
"30",
"index",
"points",
",",
"hitting",
"a",
"Merc",
"circuit",
"breaker",
"limit",
"that",
"remained",
"in",
"effect",
"for",
"the",
"rest",
"of",
"the",
"trading",
"session",
".",
"The",
"Merc",
"said",
"that",
"its",
"existing",
"30-minute",
",",
"12-point",
"limit",
"on",
"S&P",
"500",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"trading",
"(",
"equal",
"to",
"about",
"100",
"points",
"on",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"industrials",
")",
",",
"which",
"was",
"triggered",
"Oct.",
"13",
",",
"will",
"remain",
"in",
"effect",
".",
"Leo",
"Melamed",
",",
"Merc",
"executive",
"committee",
"chairman",
",",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"12-point",
"limit",
"appeared",
"to",
"lessen",
"the",
"selling",
"panic",
"Oct.",
"13",
".",
"But",
"when",
"the",
"contract",
"reopened",
",",
"the",
"subsequent",
"flood",
"of",
"sell",
"orders",
"that",
"quickly",
"knocked",
"the",
"contract",
"down",
"to",
"the",
"30-point",
"limit",
"indicated",
"that",
"the",
"intermediate",
"limit",
"of",
"20",
"points",
"was",
"needed",
"to",
"help",
"keep",
"stock",
"and",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"prices",
"synchronized",
".",
"Several",
"traders",
"maintained",
"that",
"the",
"Merc",
"'s",
"12-point",
"circuit-breaker",
"aggravated",
"the",
"market",
"slide",
"Oct.",
"13",
"by",
"directing",
"additional",
"selling",
"pressure",
"to",
"the",
"floor",
"of",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
".",
"All",
"of",
"the",
"changes",
"require",
"regulatory",
"approval",
",",
"which",
"is",
"expected",
"shortly",
".",
"The",
"exchange",
"also",
"said",
"that",
"the",
"30-point",
"circuit",
"breaker",
",",
"which",
"currently",
"provides",
"only",
"a",
"one-hour",
"respite",
"during",
"market",
"sell-offs",
",",
"will",
"become",
"the",
"maximum",
"one-day",
"limit",
"for",
"the",
"S&P",
"500",
"stock-index",
"futures",
"contract",
";",
"the",
"one-day",
"limit",
"now",
"is",
"50",
"index",
"points",
".",
"A",
"final",
"modification",
"was",
"made",
"to",
"the",
"five-point",
"opening",
"limit",
"for",
"the",
"contract",
".",
"The",
"Merc",
"said",
"that",
"five-point",
"limit",
"will",
"remain",
"in",
"effect",
"for",
"the",
"first",
"10",
"minutes",
"of",
"trading",
".",
"The",
"limit",
"lapses",
"under",
"current",
"exchange",
"rules",
"if",
"contracts",
"trade",
"above",
"the",
"limit",
"price",
"during",
"the",
"opening",
"10",
"minutes",
"of",
"trading",
".",
"In",
"Washington",
",",
"House",
"aides",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"told",
"congressmen",
"that",
"the",
"collar",
",",
"which",
"banned",
"program",
"trades",
"through",
"the",
"Big",
"Board",
"'s",
"computer",
"when",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"Industrial",
"Average",
"moved",
"50",
"points",
",",
"did",
"n't",
"work",
"well",
".",
"He",
"said",
"that",
"firms",
"could",
"get",
"around",
"the",
"collar",
"by",
"executing",
"trades",
"manually",
".",
"In",
"a",
"post-hearing",
"news",
"conference",
",",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
",",
"who",
"has",
"publicly",
"expressed",
"concern",
"about",
"market",
"volatility",
",",
"said",
"he",
"told",
"the",
"House",
"finance",
"and",
"telecommunications",
"subcommittee",
"that",
"he",
"would",
"support",
"the",
"program-trading",
"halt",
"proposal",
"``",
"providing",
"the",
"SEC",
"would",
"be",
"comfortable",
"with",
"the",
"language",
"''",
"in",
"a",
"bill",
".",
"The",
"program-trading",
"issue",
"is",
"heating",
"up",
"on",
"Capitol",
"Hill",
"as",
"it",
"is",
"on",
"Wall",
"Street",
",",
"and",
"several",
"legislators",
"want",
"to",
"grant",
"the",
"SEC",
"the",
"power",
"to",
"shut",
"off",
"the",
"programs",
"when",
"trading",
"becomes",
"too",
"volatile",
".",
"SEC",
"Chairman",
"Richard",
"Breeden",
"has",
"said",
"he",
"would",
"be",
"willing",
"to",
"consider",
"circuit",
"breakers",
"that",
"have",
"preset",
"trigger",
"points",
",",
"but",
"he",
"does",
"n't",
"want",
"discretionary",
"power",
"to",
"stop",
"programs",
".",
"A",
"House",
"aide",
"suggested",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"was",
"so",
"``",
"vague",
"and",
"mushy",
"''",
"that",
"it",
"was",
"the",
"kind",
"of",
"meeting",
"where",
"people",
"of",
"all",
"viewpoints",
"could",
"``",
"come",
"out",
"feeling",
"good",
".",
"''",
"At",
"one",
"point",
",",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"angered",
"the",
"subcommittee",
"'s",
"chairman",
",",
"Rep.",
"Edward",
"Markey",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Mass.",
")",
",",
"by",
"not",
"going",
"much",
"beyond",
"what",
"already",
"had",
"been",
"reported",
"in",
"the",
"morning",
"newspapers",
".",
"``",
"Markey",
"said",
"we",
"could",
"have",
"done",
"this",
"in",
"public",
"''",
"because",
"so",
"little",
"sensitive",
"information",
"was",
"disclosed",
",",
"the",
"aide",
"said",
".",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"then",
"responded",
"that",
"he",
"would",
"have",
"been",
"happy",
"just",
"writing",
"a",
"report",
"to",
"the",
"panel",
",",
"the",
"aide",
"added",
".",
"At",
"another",
"point",
"during",
"the",
"hearing",
",",
"Rep.",
"Markey",
"asked",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"what",
"would",
"be",
"discussed",
"at",
"a",
"New",
"York",
"exchange",
"board",
"meeting",
"today",
".",
"Mr.",
"Phelan",
"said",
"the",
"Big",
"Board",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"study",
"the",
"program-trading",
"issue",
".",
"That",
"response",
"annoyed",
"Rep.",
"Markey",
",",
"House",
"aides",
"said",
",",
"and",
"the",
"congressman",
"snapped",
"back",
"that",
"there",
"had",
"been",
"enough",
"studies",
"of",
"the",
"issue",
"and",
"that",
"it",
"was",
"time",
"for",
"action",
"on",
"the",
"matter",
".",
"Fifteen",
"of",
"the",
"26",
"subcommittee",
"members",
"attended",
"the",
"hearing",
",",
"most",
"notably",
"Rep.",
"John",
"Dingell",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"Mich.",
")",
",",
"the",
"full",
"House",
"Energy",
"and",
"Commerce",
"Committee",
"chairman",
",",
"who",
"has",
"been",
"willing",
"to",
"let",
"Mr.",
"Markey",
"carry",
"the",
"legislation",
"in",
"recent",
"months",
".",
"Mr.",
"Dingell",
"expressed",
"concern",
",",
"sources",
"said",
",",
"about",
"jurisdictional",
"problems",
"in",
"regulating",
"program",
"trading",
",",
"which",
"uses",
"futures",
"to",
"offset",
"stock",
"trades",
".",
"The",
"futures",
"industry",
"is",
"regulated",
"by",
"the",
"Commodity",
"Futures",
"Trading",
"Commission",
",",
"which",
"reports",
"to",
"the",
"Agriculture",
"committees",
"in",
"both",
"houses",
"."
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"75,000",
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",",
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",",
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"Sun",
"Microsystems",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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[
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",",
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"the",
"way",
"they",
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".",
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"Mr.",
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"When",
"Michael",
"S.",
"Perry",
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"the",
"podium",
"at",
"a",
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",",
"more",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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"now",
"holds",
"the",
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"3",
"position",
"at",
"U.S.",
"department-store",
"cosmetic",
"counters",
".",
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"&",
"Gamble",
"Co.",
"agreed",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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"it",
"is",
"far",
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"certain",
"that",
"companies",
"best",
"known",
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"Promise",
"margarine",
"and",
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",",
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"will",
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".",
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"now",
",",
"both",
"companies",
"are",
"keeping",
"quiet",
"about",
"their",
"specific",
"plans",
".",
"But",
"industry",
"watchers",
"expect",
"them",
"to",
"blend",
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"methodical",
"marketing",
"strategies",
"they",
"use",
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"more",
"mundane",
"products",
"with",
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"more",
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".",
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"research",
",",
"soaring",
"advertising",
"budgets",
"and",
"aggressive",
"pricing",
".",
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"some",
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"executives",
"wonder",
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"techniques",
"honed",
"in",
"packaged",
"goods",
"will",
"translate",
"to",
"the",
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"business",
".",
"Estee",
"Lauder",
"Inc.",
",",
"Revlon",
"Inc.",
"and",
"other",
"cosmetics",
"houses",
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"have",
"considered",
"themselves",
"fashion",
"enterprises",
"whose",
"product",
"development",
"is",
"guided",
"by",
"the",
"creative",
"intuition",
"of",
"their",
"executives",
".",
"Cosmetics",
"companies",
"roll",
"out",
"new",
"makeup",
"colors",
"several",
"times",
"a",
"year",
",",
"and",
"since",
"most",
"products",
"can",
"be",
"easily",
"copied",
"by",
"competitors",
",",
"they",
"'re",
"loath",
"to",
"test",
"them",
"with",
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".",
"``",
"Just",
"because",
"upscale",
"cosmetics",
"look",
"like",
"packaged",
"goods",
"and",
"smell",
"like",
"packaged",
"goods",
",",
"it",
"does",
"n't",
"mean",
"they",
"are",
"packaged",
"goods",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Leonard",
"Lauder",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"of",
"Estee",
"Lauder",
".",
"``",
"They",
"'re",
"really",
"fashion",
"items",
"wrapped",
"up",
"in",
"little",
"jars",
".",
"''",
"In",
"contrast",
"to",
"the",
"more",
"artistic",
"nature",
"of",
"traditional",
"cosmetics",
"houses",
",",
"Unilever",
"and",
"P&G",
"are",
"the",
"habitats",
"of",
"organization",
"men",
"in",
"gray-flannel",
"suits",
".",
"Both",
"companies",
"are",
"conservative",
"marketers",
"that",
"rely",
"on",
"extensive",
"market",
"research",
".",
"P&G",
",",
"in",
"particular",
",",
"rarely",
"rolls",
"out",
"a",
"product",
"nationally",
"before",
"extensive",
"test-marketing",
".",
"Both",
"can",
"be",
"extremely",
"aggressive",
"at",
"pricing",
"such",
"products",
"as",
"soaps",
"and",
"diapers",
"--",
"to",
"the",
"extent",
"that",
"some",
"industry",
"consultants",
"predict",
"cents-off",
"coupons",
"for",
"mascara",
"could",
"result",
"from",
"their",
"entry",
"into",
"the",
"field",
".",
"P&G",
"already",
"has",
"shown",
"it",
"can",
"meld",
"some",
"traditional",
"packaged-goods",
"techniques",
"with",
"the",
"image-making",
"of",
"the",
"cosmetics",
"trade",
"in",
"the",
"mass-market",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"business",
".",
"Consider",
"Oil",
"of",
"Olay",
",",
"which",
"P&G",
"acquired",
"as",
"part",
"of",
"Richardson-Vicks",
"International",
"in",
"1985",
".",
"The",
"moisturizer",
",",
"introduced",
"in",
"1962",
",",
"had",
"a",
"dowdy",
"image",
".",
"``",
"Oil",
"of",
"Olay",
"brought",
"with",
"it",
"the",
"baggage",
"of",
"being",
"used",
"basically",
"by",
"older",
"women",
"who",
"had",
"already",
"aged",
",",
"''",
"says",
"David",
"Williams",
",",
"a",
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"New",
"England",
"Consulting",
"Group",
".",
"P&G",
"set",
"out",
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"reposition",
"the",
"brand",
"by",
"broadening",
"the",
"product",
"line",
"to",
"include",
"facial",
"cleansers",
"and",
"moisturizers",
"for",
"sensitive",
"skin",
".",
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"also",
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",",
"stamping",
"the",
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"pink",
"boxes",
"with",
"gold",
"lines",
"to",
"create",
"a",
"more",
"opulent",
"look",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
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"shifted",
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"from",
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"targeting",
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"women",
"to",
"one",
"featuring",
"a",
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"in",
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"vowing",
"``",
"not",
"to",
"grow",
"old",
"gracefully",
".",
"''",
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"company",
"says",
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"have",
"soared",
".",
"Goliaths",
"like",
"Unilever",
"and",
"P&G",
"have",
"enormous",
"financial",
"advantages",
"over",
"smaller",
"rivals",
".",
"Next",
"year",
",",
"Noxell",
"plans",
"to",
"roll",
"out",
"a",
"perfume",
"called",
"Navy",
",",
"says",
"George",
"L.",
"Bunting",
"Jr.",
",",
"chairman",
"of",
"Noxell",
".",
"Without",
"P&G",
"'s",
"backing",
",",
"Noxell",
"might",
"not",
"have",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"spend",
"the",
"estimated",
"$",
"5",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"7",
"million",
"needed",
"to",
"accomplish",
"that",
"without",
"scrimping",
"on",
"its",
"existing",
"brands",
".",
"Packaged-goods",
"companies",
"``",
"will",
"make",
"it",
"tougher",
"for",
"smaller",
"people",
"to",
"remain",
"competitive",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Bunting",
"says",
".",
"Further",
"consolidations",
"in",
"the",
"industry",
"could",
"follow",
".",
"Rumors",
"that",
"Unilever",
"is",
"interested",
"in",
"acquiring",
"Schering-Plough",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"Maybelline",
"unit",
"are",
"widespread",
".",
"Unilever",
"wo",
"n't",
"comment",
";",
"Schering",
",",
"however",
",",
"denies",
"the",
"brand",
"is",
"for",
"sale",
".",
"The",
"presence",
"of",
"Unilever",
"and",
"P&G",
"is",
"likely",
"to",
"increase",
"the",
"impact",
"of",
"advertising",
"on",
"cosmetics",
".",
"While",
"the",
"two",
"are",
"among",
"the",
"world",
"'s",
"biggest",
"advertisers",
",",
"most",
"makers",
"of",
"upscale",
"cosmetics",
"spend",
"relatively",
"little",
"on",
"national",
"ads",
".",
"Instead",
",",
"they",
"focus",
"on",
"events",
"in",
"department",
"stores",
"and",
"pour",
"their",
"promotional",
"budgets",
"into",
"gifts",
"that",
"go",
"along",
"with",
"purchases",
".",
"Estee",
"Lauder",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"spends",
"only",
"an",
"estimated",
"5",
"%",
"of",
"sales",
"on",
"advertising",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"and",
"Mr.",
"Lauder",
"says",
"he",
"has",
"no",
"plans",
"to",
"change",
"his",
"strategy",
".",
"The",
"most",
"dramatic",
"changes",
",",
"however",
",",
"probably",
"will",
"come",
"in",
"new-product",
"development",
".",
"Nearly",
"70",
"%",
"of",
"cosmetics",
"sales",
"come",
"through",
"mass-distribution",
"outlets",
"such",
"as",
"drug",
"stores",
"and",
"supermarkets",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Andrew",
"Shore",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"at",
"Shearson",
"Lehman",
"Hutton",
"Inc",
".",
"That",
"figure",
"has",
"been",
"inching",
"up",
"for",
"several",
"years",
".",
"As",
"the",
"trend",
"continues",
",",
"demand",
"for",
"mass-market",
"items",
"that",
"are",
"high",
"quality",
"but",
"only",
"mid-priced",
"--",
"particularly",
"skin-care",
"products",
"--",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"increase",
".",
"This",
"fall",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"L'Oreal",
"Group",
",",
"ordinarily",
"a",
"high-end",
"line",
",",
"rolled",
"out",
"a",
"drug-store",
"line",
"of",
"skin-care",
"products",
"called",
"Plenitude",
",",
"which",
"retail",
"for",
"$",
"5",
"to",
"$",
"15",
".",
"The",
"packaged-goods",
"marketers",
"may",
"try",
"filling",
"that",
"gap",
"with",
"a",
"spate",
"of",
"new",
"products",
".",
"Unlike",
"the",
"old-line",
"cosmetics",
"houses",
",",
"Unilever",
"and",
"P&G",
"both",
"have",
"enormous",
"research",
"and",
"development",
"bases",
"to",
"draw",
"on",
"for",
"new",
"products",
".",
"P&G",
",",
"in",
"fact",
",",
"is",
"noted",
"for",
"gaining",
"market",
"leadership",
"by",
"introducing",
"products",
"that",
"offer",
"a",
"technical",
"edge",
"over",
"the",
"competition",
".",
"Sales",
"of",
"its",
"Tide",
"detergent",
"soared",
"earlier",
"this",
"year",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"after",
"P&G",
"introduced",
"a",
"version",
"that",
"includes",
"a",
"bleach",
"safe",
"for",
"all",
"colors",
"and",
"fabrics",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"led",
"industry",
"executives",
"to",
"speculate",
"that",
"future",
"product",
"development",
"will",
"be",
"driven",
"more",
"by",
"technological",
"innovation",
"than",
"by",
"fashion",
"whims",
"--",
"especially",
"among",
"mass-market",
"brands",
".",
"``",
"There",
"will",
"be",
"more",
"emphasis",
"on",
"quality",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Guy",
"Peyrelongue",
",",
"chief",
"executive",
"of",
"Cosmair",
"Inc.",
",",
"the",
"U.S.",
"licensee",
"of",
"L'Oreal",
".",
"``",
"You",
"'ll",
"see",
"fewer",
"gimmicks",
".",
"''",
"But",
"success",
"for",
"Unilever",
"and",
"P&G",
"is",
"far",
"from",
"guaranteed",
",",
"as",
"shown",
"by",
"the",
"many",
"consumer-product",
"companies",
"that",
"have",
"tried",
"and",
"failed",
"to",
"master",
"the",
"quirky",
"beauty",
"business",
".",
"In",
"the",
"1970s",
",",
"several",
"pharmaceutical",
"and",
"packaged-goods",
"companies",
",",
"including",
"Colgate-Palmolive",
"Co.",
",",
"Eli",
"Lilly",
"&",
"Co.",
",",
"Pfizer",
"Inc.",
"and",
"Schering-Plough",
"acquired",
"cosmetics",
"companies",
".",
"Industry",
"consultants",
"say",
"only",
"Schering-Plough",
",",
"which",
"makes",
"the",
"mass-market",
"Maybelline",
",",
"has",
"maintained",
"a",
"meaningful",
"business",
".",
"Colgate",
",",
"which",
"acquired",
"Helena",
"Rubenstein",
"in",
"1973",
",",
"sold",
"the",
"brand",
"seven",
"years",
"later",
"after",
"the",
"brand",
"languished",
".",
"Unilever",
"already",
"has",
"experienced",
"some",
"disappointment",
".",
"The",
"mass-market",
"Aziza",
"brand",
",",
"which",
"it",
"acquired",
"in",
"1987",
"along",
"with",
"Chesebrough-Pond",
"'s",
"Inc.",
",",
"has",
"lost",
"share",
",",
"according",
"to",
"industry",
"analysts",
".",
"The",
"ritzy",
"world",
"of",
"department-store",
"cosmetics",
"retailing",
",",
"where",
"Unilever",
"is",
"concentrating",
"its",
"efforts",
",",
"may",
"prove",
"even",
"more",
"treacherous",
".",
"In",
"this",
"niche",
",",
"makeup",
"colors",
"change",
"seasonally",
"because",
"they",
"are",
"linked",
"to",
"ready-to-wear",
"fashions",
".",
"Because",
"brand",
"loyalty",
"is",
"weak",
"and",
"most",
"cosmetics",
"purchases",
"are",
"unplanned",
",",
"careful",
"training",
"of",
"store",
"sales",
"staffs",
"by",
"cosmetics",
"companies",
"is",
"important",
".",
"And",
"cultivating",
"a",
"luxury",
"image",
"strong",
"enough",
"to",
"persuade",
"consumers",
"to",
"pay",
"more",
"than",
"$",
"15",
"for",
"lipstick",
"or",
"eye",
"makeup",
"requires",
"a",
"subtle",
"touch",
"that",
"packaged-goods",
"companies",
"have",
"yet",
"to",
"demonstrate",
"on",
"their",
"own",
"."
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] |
[
"When",
"China",
"opened",
"its",
"doors",
"to",
"foreign",
"investors",
"in",
"1979",
",",
"toy",
"makers",
"from",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"were",
"among",
"the",
"first",
"to",
"march",
"in",
".",
"Today",
",",
"with",
"about",
"75",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"companies",
"'",
"products",
"being",
"made",
"in",
"China",
",",
"the",
"chairman",
"of",
"the",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"Toys",
"Council",
",",
"Dennis",
"Ting",
",",
"has",
"suggested",
"a",
"new",
"sourcing",
"label",
":",
"``",
"Made",
"in",
"China",
"by",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"Companies",
".",
"''",
"The",
"toy",
"makers",
"were",
"pushed",
"across",
"the",
"border",
"by",
"rising",
"labor",
"and",
"land",
"costs",
"in",
"the",
"British",
"colony",
".",
"But",
"in",
"the",
"wake",
"of",
"the",
"shootings",
"in",
"Beijing",
"on",
"June",
"4",
",",
"the",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"toy",
"industry",
"is",
"worrying",
"about",
"its",
"strong",
"dependence",
"on",
"China",
".",
"Although",
"the",
"manufacturers",
"stress",
"that",
"production",
"has",
"n't",
"been",
"affected",
"by",
"China",
"'s",
"political",
"turmoil",
",",
"they",
"are",
"looking",
"for",
"additional",
"sites",
".",
"The",
"toy",
"makers",
",",
"and",
"their",
"foreign",
"buyers",
",",
"cite",
"uncertainty",
"about",
"China",
"'s",
"economic",
"and",
"political",
"policies",
".",
"``",
"Nobody",
"wants",
"to",
"have",
"all",
"his",
"eggs",
"in",
"one",
"basket",
",",
"''",
"says",
"David",
"Yeh",
",",
"chairman",
"and",
"chief",
"executive",
"officer",
"of",
"International",
"Matchbox",
"Group",
"Ltd",
".",
"Indeed",
",",
"Matchbox",
"and",
"other",
"leading",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"toy",
"makers",
"were",
"setting",
"up",
"factories",
"in",
"Southeast",
"Asia",
",",
"especially",
"in",
"Thailand",
",",
"long",
"before",
"the",
"massacre",
".",
"Their",
"steps",
"were",
"partly",
"prompted",
"by",
"concern",
"over",
"a",
"deterioration",
"of",
"business",
"conditions",
"in",
"southern",
"China",
".",
"By",
"diversifying",
"supply",
"sources",
",",
"the",
"toy",
"makers",
"do",
"n't",
"intend",
"to",
"withdraw",
"from",
"China",
",",
"manufacturers",
"and",
"foreign",
"buyers",
"say",
".",
"It",
"would",
"n't",
"be",
"easy",
"to",
"duplicate",
"quickly",
"the",
"manufacturing",
"capacity",
"built",
"up",
"in",
"southern",
"China",
"during",
"the",
"past",
"decade",
".",
"A",
"supply",
"of",
"cheap",
"labor",
"and",
"the",
"access",
"to",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"port",
",",
"airport",
",",
"banks",
"and",
"support",
"industries",
",",
"such",
"as",
"printing",
"companies",
",",
"have",
"made",
"China",
"'s",
"Guangdong",
"province",
"a",
"premier",
"manufacturing",
"site",
".",
"``",
"South",
"China",
"is",
"the",
"most",
"competitive",
"source",
"of",
"toys",
"in",
"the",
"world",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Henry",
"Hu",
",",
"executive",
"director",
"of",
"Wah",
"Shing",
"Toys",
"Consolidated",
"Ltd",
".",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"trade",
"figures",
"illustrate",
"the",
"toy",
"makers",
"'",
"reliance",
"on",
"factories",
"across",
"the",
"border",
".",
"In",
"1988",
",",
"exports",
"of",
"domestically",
"produced",
"toys",
"and",
"games",
"fell",
"19",
"%",
"from",
"1987",
",",
"to",
"HK$",
"10.05",
"billion",
"(",
"US$",
"1.29",
"billion",
")",
".",
"But",
"re-exports",
",",
"mainly",
"from",
"China",
",",
"jumped",
"75",
"%",
",",
"to",
"HK$",
"15.92",
"billion",
".",
"In",
"1989",
"'s",
"first",
"seven",
"months",
",",
"domestic",
"exports",
"fell",
"29",
"%",
",",
"to",
"HK$",
"3.87",
"billion",
",",
"while",
"re-exports",
"rose",
"56",
"%",
",",
"to",
"HK$",
"11.28",
"billion",
".",
"Manufacturers",
"say",
"there",
"is",
"no",
"immediate",
"substitute",
"for",
"southern",
"China",
",",
"where",
"an",
"estimated",
"120,000",
"people",
"are",
"employed",
"by",
"the",
"toy",
"industry",
".",
"``",
"For",
"the",
"next",
"few",
"years",
",",
"like",
"it",
"or",
"not",
",",
"China",
"is",
"going",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"main",
"supplier",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Edmund",
"Young",
",",
"vice",
"president",
"of",
"Perfecta",
"Enterprises",
"Ltd.",
",",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"first",
"big",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"toy",
"makers",
"to",
"move",
"across",
"the",
"border",
".",
"In",
"the",
"meantime",
",",
"as",
"manufacturers",
"and",
"buyers",
"seek",
"new",
"sites",
",",
"they",
"are",
"focusing",
"mainly",
"on",
"Southeast",
"Asia",
".",
"Several",
"big",
"companies",
"have",
"established",
"manufacturing",
"joint",
"ventures",
"in",
"Thailand",
",",
"including",
"Matchbox",
",",
"Wah",
"Shing",
"and",
"Kader",
"Industrial",
"Co.",
",",
"the",
"toy",
"manufacturer",
"headed",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Ting",
".",
"Malaysia",
",",
"the",
"Philippines",
"and",
"Indonesia",
"also",
"are",
"being",
"studied",
".",
"With",
"the",
"European",
"Community",
"set",
"to",
"remove",
"its",
"internal",
"trade",
"barriers",
"in",
"1992",
",",
"several",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"companies",
"are",
"beginning",
"to",
"consider",
"Spain",
",",
"Portugal",
"and",
"Greece",
"as",
"possible",
"manufacturing",
"sites",
".",
"Worries",
"about",
"China",
"came",
"just",
"as",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"toy",
"industry",
"was",
"recovering",
"from",
"a",
"1987",
"sales",
"slump",
"and",
"bankruptcy",
"filings",
"by",
"two",
"major",
"U.S.",
"companies",
",",
"Worlds",
"of",
"Wonder",
"Inc.",
"and",
"Coleco",
"Industries",
"Inc",
".",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"manufacturers",
"say",
"large",
"debt",
"writeoffs",
"and",
"other",
"financial",
"problems",
"resulting",
"from",
"the",
"1987",
"difficulties",
"chastened",
"the",
"local",
"industry",
",",
"causing",
"it",
"to",
"tighten",
"credit",
"policies",
"and",
"financial",
"management",
".",
"The",
"industry",
"regards",
"last",
"year",
"and",
"this",
"year",
"as",
"a",
"period",
"of",
"recovery",
"that",
"will",
"lead",
"to",
"improved",
"results",
".",
"Still",
",",
"they",
"long",
"for",
"a",
"``",
"mega-hit",
"''",
"toy",
"to",
"excite",
"retail",
"sales",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
",",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"'s",
"biggest",
"market",
"for",
"toys",
"and",
"games",
".",
"The",
"closest",
"thing",
"the",
"colony",
"'s",
"companies",
"have",
"to",
"a",
"U.S.",
"mega-hit",
"this",
"year",
"is",
"the",
"Teenage",
"Mutant",
"Ninja",
"Turtles",
"series",
"of",
"action",
"figures",
"manufactured",
"by",
"Playmates",
"Holdings",
"Ltd",
".",
"Introduced",
"in",
"mid-1988",
",",
"the",
"15-centimeter-tall",
"plastic",
"turtles",
"are",
"based",
"on",
"an",
"American",
"comic",
"book",
"and",
"television",
"series",
".",
"Paul",
"Kwan",
",",
"managing",
"director",
"of",
"Playmates",
",",
"says",
"10",
"million",
"Ninja",
"Turtles",
"have",
"been",
"sold",
",",
"placing",
"the",
"reptilian",
"warriors",
"among",
"the",
"10",
"biggest-selling",
"toys",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"Should",
"sales",
"continue",
"to",
"be",
"strong",
"through",
"the",
"Christmas",
"season",
",",
"which",
"accounts",
"for",
"about",
"60",
"%",
"of",
"U.S.",
"retail",
"toy",
"sales",
",",
"Mr.",
"Kwan",
"said",
"the",
"Ninja",
"Turtles",
"could",
"make",
"1989",
"a",
"record",
"sales",
"year",
"for",
"Playmates",
".",
"Other",
"Hong",
"Kong",
"manufacturers",
"expect",
"their",
"results",
"to",
"improve",
"only",
"slightly",
"this",
"year",
"from",
"1988",
".",
"Besides",
"the",
"lack",
"of",
"a",
"fast-selling",
"product",
",",
"they",
"cite",
"the",
"continued",
"dominance",
"of",
"the",
"U.S.",
"market",
"by",
"Nintendo",
"Entertainment",
"System",
",",
"an",
"expensive",
"video",
"game",
"made",
"by",
"Nintendo",
"Co.",
"of",
"Japan",
".",
"Nintendo",
"buyers",
"have",
"little",
"money",
"left",
"to",
"spend",
"on",
"other",
"products",
".",
"Many",
"of",
"the",
"toy",
"makers",
"'",
"problems",
"started",
"well",
"before",
"June",
"4",
"as",
"a",
"result",
"of",
"overstrained",
"infrastructure",
"and",
"Beijing",
"'s",
"austerity",
"programs",
"launched",
"late",
"last",
"year",
".",
"Toy",
"makers",
"complain",
"that",
"electricity",
"in",
"Guangdong",
"has",
"been",
"provided",
"only",
"three",
"days",
"a",
"week",
"in",
"recent",
"months",
",",
"down",
"from",
"five",
"days",
"a",
"week",
",",
"as",
"the",
"province",
"'s",
"rapid",
"industrialization",
"has",
"outstripped",
"its",
"generating",
"capacity",
".",
"Manufacturers",
"are",
"upgrading",
"standby",
"power",
"plants",
".",
"Bank",
"credit",
"for",
"China",
"investments",
"all",
"but",
"dried",
"up",
"following",
"June",
"4",
".",
"Also",
",",
"concern",
"exists",
"that",
"the",
"harder-line",
"Beijing",
"leadership",
"will",
"tighten",
"its",
"control",
"of",
"Guangdong",
",",
"which",
"has",
"been",
"the",
"main",
"laboratory",
"for",
"the",
"open-door",
"policy",
"and",
"economic",
"reforms",
".",
"But",
",",
"toy",
"manufacturers",
"and",
"other",
"industrialists",
"say",
"Beijing",
"will",
"be",
"restrained",
"from",
"tightening",
"controls",
"on",
"export-oriented",
"southern",
"China",
".",
"They",
"say",
"China",
"'s",
"trade",
"deficit",
"is",
"widening",
"and",
"the",
"country",
"is",
"too",
"short",
"of",
"foreign",
"exchange",
"for",
"it",
"to",
"hamper",
"production",
"in",
"Guangdong",
".",
"``",
"The",
"Chinese",
"leaders",
"have",
"to",
"decide",
"whether",
"they",
"want",
"control",
"or",
"whether",
"the",
"want",
"exports",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Kwan",
"of",
"Playmates",
"."
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[
"Golden",
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".",
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"23.9",
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",",
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"8.4",
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"earlier",
".",
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"stem",
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"along",
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",",
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"an",
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"1989",
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".",
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",",
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"Nugget",
"reported",
"a",
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"loss",
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"11.4",
"million",
",",
"or",
"69",
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"a",
"share",
",",
"based",
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"16.6",
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"common",
"and",
"dilutive",
"equivalents",
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".",
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",",
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"had",
"a",
"net",
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"4.3",
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",",
"or",
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"a",
"share",
",",
"based",
"on",
"21",
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"common",
"shares",
"and",
"dilutive",
"equivalents",
"outstanding",
".",
"The",
"1988",
"results",
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"$",
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"charge",
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"a",
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"judgment",
".",
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",",
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"board",
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"as",
"many",
"as",
"three",
"million",
"common",
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"to",
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",",
"either",
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"or",
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".",
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"are",
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"under",
"an",
"earlier",
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"buy-back",
"program",
".",
"John",
"Uphoff",
",",
"an",
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"James",
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",",
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",",
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"in",
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".",
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",",
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"York",
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"Exchange",
"composite",
"trading",
",",
"Golden",
"Nugget",
"common",
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"$",
"28.25",
",",
"up",
"$",
"2",
"."
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[
"Giovanni",
"Agnelli",
"&",
"Co.",
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"a",
"transaction",
"that",
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"indirect",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"control",
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"Agnelli",
"&",
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".",
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"Khan",
",",
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",",
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"Ifint",
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",",
"another",
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",",
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".",
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"preferred",
"shares",
",",
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"assemblies",
".",
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",",
"while",
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"%",
".",
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"the",
"transaction",
",",
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"expected",
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"approved",
"at",
"a",
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"meeting",
"Nov.",
"24",
",",
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"Agnelli",
"&",
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".",
"Its",
"capital",
"will",
"also",
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"232.4",
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"lire",
"(",
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"172.5",
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")",
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"group",
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".",
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"raised",
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"300",
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"lire",
"for",
"the",
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"this",
"summer",
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"another",
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"concern",
"Galbani",
"S.p",
".",
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"."
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[
"The",
"real",
"estate",
"slump",
"that",
"'s",
"pushing",
"down",
"the",
"price",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"office",
"space",
"and",
"housing",
"is",
"also",
"affecting",
"the",
"city",
"'s",
"retail",
"real",
"estate",
"market",
".",
"In",
"Manhattan",
",",
"once-desirable",
"store",
"sites",
"sit",
"vacant",
"and",
"newly",
"constructed",
"space",
"has",
"been",
"slow",
"to",
"fill",
".",
"Retail",
"real",
"estate",
"brokers",
"say",
"tenants",
"are",
"reluctant",
"to",
"sign",
"leases",
"because",
"of",
"uncertainty",
"about",
"the",
"local",
"economy",
",",
"turmoil",
"in",
"their",
"own",
"industries",
"and",
"a",
"belief",
"that",
"rents",
"have",
"not",
"yet",
"hit",
"bottom",
".",
"``",
"There",
"is",
"an",
"unbelievable",
"amount",
"of",
"space",
"available",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Faith",
"Consolo",
",",
"senior",
"vice",
"president",
"at",
"Garrick-Aug",
"Associates",
"Store",
"Leasing",
"Inc",
".",
"There",
"are",
"about",
"2,000",
"stores",
"for",
"rent",
",",
"up",
"from",
"a",
"more",
"typical",
"range",
"of",
"1,200",
"to",
"1,500",
".",
"``",
"This",
"further",
"confuses",
"retailers",
",",
"''",
"she",
"says",
".",
"``",
"They",
"wonder",
"should",
"they",
"sign",
"a",
"lease",
"if",
"prices",
"are",
"still",
"coming",
"down",
"?",
"Is",
"this",
"the",
"wrong",
"time",
"to",
"open",
"a",
"store",
"?",
"Who",
"is",
"going",
"to",
"be",
"in",
"the",
"space",
"next",
"door",
"?",
"''",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"Ms.",
"Consolo",
"says",
",",
"tenants",
"usually",
"can",
"negotiate",
"to",
"pay",
"rents",
"that",
"are",
"about",
"one-quarter",
"lower",
"than",
"landlords",
"'",
"initial",
"asking",
"price",
".",
"A",
"handful",
"of",
"hot",
"retail",
"locations",
",",
"such",
"as",
"the",
"57th",
"Street",
"and",
"Madison",
"and",
"Fifth",
"Avenue",
"areas",
",",
"have",
"been",
"able",
"to",
"sustain",
"what",
"many",
"see",
"as",
"astronomical",
"rents",
".",
"And",
",",
"in",
"some",
"neighborhoods",
",",
"rents",
"have",
"merely",
"hit",
"a",
"plateau",
".",
"But",
"on",
"average",
",",
"Manhattan",
"retail",
"rents",
"have",
"dropped",
"10",
"%",
"to",
"15",
"%",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"six",
"months",
"alone",
",",
"experts",
"say",
".",
"That",
"follows",
"a",
"more",
"subtle",
"decline",
"in",
"the",
"prior",
"six",
"months",
",",
"after",
"Manhattan",
"rents",
"had",
"run",
"up",
"rapidly",
"since",
"1986",
".",
"The",
"same",
"factors",
"limiting",
"demand",
"for",
"office",
"space",
"have",
"affected",
"retailing",
".",
"``",
"As",
"businesses",
"contract",
"or",
"depart",
",",
"the",
"number",
"of",
"employees",
"who",
"might",
"use",
"retail",
"services",
"shrinks",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Edward",
"A.",
"Friedman",
",",
"senior",
"vice",
"president",
"of",
"Helmsley",
"Spear",
"Inc",
".",
"He",
"says",
"financial",
"problems",
"plaguing",
"electronics",
",",
"fur",
"and",
"furniture",
"companies",
"--",
"key",
"categories",
"in",
"the",
"local",
"retail",
"economy",
"--",
"have",
"further",
"deflated",
"the",
"market",
".",
"Hardest",
"hit",
"are",
"what",
"he",
"calls",
"``",
"secondary",
"''",
"sites",
"that",
"primarily",
"serve",
"neighborhood",
"residents",
".",
"In",
"these",
"locations",
",",
"Mr.",
"Friedman",
"says",
",",
"``",
"Retailers",
"are",
"increasingly",
"cautious",
"about",
"expanding",
"and",
"rents",
"have",
"remained",
"steady",
"or",
"in",
"some",
"cases",
"have",
"declined",
".",
"''",
"Weakness",
"in",
"the",
"restaurant",
"industry",
",",
"which",
"is",
"leaving",
"retail",
"space",
"vacant",
",",
"exacerbates",
"the",
"problem",
"for",
"landlords",
".",
"It",
"is",
"also",
"no",
"comfort",
"to",
"landlords",
"and",
"small",
"New",
"York",
"retailers",
"when",
"the",
"future",
"of",
"larger",
"department",
"stores",
",",
"which",
"anchor",
"retail",
"neighborhoods",
",",
"are",
"in",
"doubt",
".",
"Hooker",
"Corp.",
",",
"parent",
"of",
"Bonwit",
"Teller",
"and",
"B.",
"Altman",
"'s",
",",
"is",
"mired",
"in",
"bankruptcy",
"proceedings",
"and",
"Bloomingdale",
"'s",
"is",
"for",
"sale",
"by",
"its",
"owner",
",",
"Campeau",
"Corp",
".",
"The",
"trend",
"toward",
"lower",
"rents",
"may",
"seem",
"surprising",
"given",
"that",
"some",
"communities",
"in",
"New",
"York",
"are",
"bemoaning",
"the",
"loss",
"of",
"favorite",
"local",
"businesses",
"to",
"high",
"rents",
".",
"But",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"recent",
"softening",
",",
"for",
"many",
"of",
"these",
"retailers",
"there",
"'s",
"still",
"been",
"too",
"big",
"a",
"jump",
"from",
"the",
"rental",
"rates",
"of",
"the",
"late",
"1970s",
",",
"when",
"their",
"leases",
"were",
"signed",
".",
"Certainly",
",",
"the",
"recent",
"drop",
"in",
"prices",
"does",
"n't",
"mean",
"Manhattan",
"comes",
"cheap",
".",
"New",
"York",
"retail",
"rents",
"still",
"run",
"well",
"above",
"the",
"going",
"rate",
"in",
"other",
"U.S.",
"cities",
".",
"Madison",
"and",
"Fifth",
"Avenues",
"and",
"East",
"57th",
"Street",
"can",
"command",
"rents",
"of",
"up",
"to",
"$",
"500",
"a",
"square",
"foot",
",",
"and",
"$",
"250",
"is",
"not",
"uncommon",
".",
"The",
"thriving",
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[
"When",
"President",
"Bush",
"travels",
"to",
"Costa",
"Rica",
"today",
",",
"he",
"'ll",
"go",
"with",
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"the",
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"foreign",
"travels",
".",
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"the",
"two-day",
"trip",
"still",
"has",
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"controversy",
"over",
"his",
"administration",
"'s",
"policies",
"in",
"Central",
"America",
".",
"Some",
"conservatives",
"say",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"should",
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"make",
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",",
"during",
"which",
"he",
"will",
"participate",
"in",
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"Rica",
"'s",
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"of",
"100",
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"of",
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".",
"These",
"critics",
"object",
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"'s",
"participation",
"in",
"a",
"meeting",
"that",
"includes",
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"President",
"Daniel",
"Ortega",
"among",
"the",
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".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"they",
"argue",
"he",
"wo",
"n't",
"help",
"Washington",
"'s",
"standing",
"in",
"the",
"region",
"by",
"trumpeting",
"the",
"U.S.",
"commitment",
"to",
"democracy",
"less",
"than",
"a",
"month",
"after",
"his",
"administration",
"played",
"an",
"ineffectual",
"role",
"in",
"the",
"failed",
"coup",
"attempt",
"in",
"Panama",
".",
"``",
"I",
"believe",
"it",
"will",
"do",
"more",
"damage",
"than",
"good",
"because",
"it",
"will",
"legitimize",
"people",
"like",
"Daniel",
"Ortega",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Curtin",
"Windsor",
",",
"who",
"served",
"as",
"U.S.",
"ambassador",
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"Rica",
"during",
"the",
"Reagan",
"administration",
".",
"Mr.",
"Windsor",
",",
"among",
"other",
"analysts",
"connected",
"to",
"the",
"conservative",
"Heritage",
"Foundation",
",",
"fears",
"the",
"gathering",
"of",
"18",
"leaders",
",",
"mostly",
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"Central",
"American",
"nations",
",",
"will",
"force",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"``",
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"explain",
"and",
"redeem",
"himself",
"''",
"in",
"the",
"wake",
"of",
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"that",
"the",
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"failed",
"to",
"do",
"enough",
"to",
"aid",
"the",
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"Panamanian",
"dictator",
"Manuel",
"Noriega",
".",
"At",
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"same",
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",",
"liberal",
"and",
"moderate",
"Democrats",
"note",
"the",
"irony",
"of",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"'s",
"joining",
"a",
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"Rican",
"democracy",
"at",
"a",
"time",
"his",
"administration",
"has",
"sought",
"sharp",
"cuts",
"in",
"U.S.",
"aid",
"to",
"the",
"tiny",
"country",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"proposed",
"only",
"$",
"57",
"million",
"in",
"so-called",
"economic",
"support",
"funds",
"for",
"Costa",
"Rica",
"this",
"year",
",",
"down",
"from",
"the",
"$",
"90",
"million",
"the",
"U.S.",
"provided",
"last",
"year",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"said",
"improvements",
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"Costa",
"Rica",
"'s",
"economic",
"condition",
"warrant",
"the",
"cut",
"in",
"aid",
",",
"which",
"the",
"country",
"uses",
"mainly",
"to",
"make",
"payments",
"on",
"its",
"$",
"4.5",
"billion",
"foreign",
"debt",
".",
"But",
"Costa",
"Rican",
"officials",
"argue",
"that",
"the",
"recent",
"drop",
"in",
"coffee",
"prices",
",",
"combined",
"with",
"the",
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"'s",
"continuing",
"struggle",
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"its",
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",",
"make",
"the",
"support",
"as",
"necessary",
"as",
"ever",
".",
"``",
"We",
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"the",
"river",
"and",
"we",
"need",
"a",
"little",
"more",
"help",
"to",
"get",
"to",
"the",
"other",
"side",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Rodrigo",
"Sotela",
",",
"an",
"economic",
"affairs",
"specialist",
"at",
"the",
"Costa",
"Rican",
"Embassy",
"in",
"Washington",
".",
"Democrats",
"argue",
"that",
"Costa",
"Rica",
"deserves",
"more",
"assistance",
"for",
"the",
"same",
"reason",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"is",
"attending",
"the",
"celebration",
"this",
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":",
"to",
"reward",
"the",
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"for",
"its",
"stability",
"in",
"a",
"region",
"wracked",
"with",
"turmoil",
"and",
"for",
"its",
"efforts",
"to",
"promote",
"peace",
"in",
"Nicaragua",
".",
"However",
",",
"peace",
"efforts",
"by",
"Costa",
"Rican",
"President",
"Oscar",
"Arias",
"have",
"n't",
"always",
"helped",
"the",
"country",
"'s",
"cause",
"in",
"Washington",
".",
"Mr.",
"Arias",
"'s",
"long-time",
"refusal",
"to",
"support",
"the",
"U.S.",
"'s",
"campaign",
"against",
"leftist",
"Nicaragua",
"earned",
"him",
"the",
"ire",
"of",
"the",
"Reagan",
"White",
"House",
".",
"And",
"more",
"recently",
",",
"he",
"insisted",
"on",
"signing",
"a",
"five-nation",
"agreement",
"intended",
"to",
"disarm",
"Nicaragua",
"'s",
"U.S.-backed",
"Contra",
"rebels",
"faster",
"than",
"the",
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"administration",
"would",
"prefer",
".",
"``",
"I",
"think",
"Bush",
"'s",
"going",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"helpful",
"sign",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Sen.",
"Terry",
"Sanford",
"(",
"D.",
",",
"N.C",
".",
")",
"a",
"member",
"of",
"the",
"Foreign",
"Relations",
"Committee",
"who",
"pushed",
"to",
"provide",
"Costa",
"Rica",
"about",
"the",
"same",
"amount",
"of",
"aid",
"as",
"it",
"received",
"last",
"year",
".",
"Lawmakers",
"in",
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"support",
"the",
"higher",
"level",
".",
"Administration",
"officials",
"defend",
"Mr.",
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"'s",
"decision",
"to",
"make",
"the",
"trip",
".",
"While",
"they",
"acknowledge",
"the",
"president",
"will",
"attend",
"several",
"meals",
"and",
"a",
"working",
"session",
"also",
"attended",
"by",
"Mr.",
"Ortega",
",",
"they",
"insist",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"extending",
"the",
"Nicaraguan",
"leader",
"any",
"special",
"courtesies",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"also",
"made",
"clear",
"its",
"continuing",
"distate",
"for",
"the",
"leftist",
"Nicaraguan",
"government",
"in",
"recent",
"days",
",",
"endorsing",
"a",
"package",
"of",
"electoral",
"aid",
"to",
"the",
"Nicaraguan",
"opposition",
",",
"renewing",
"the",
"U.S.",
"trade",
"embargo",
"against",
"the",
"country",
"and",
"continuing",
"to",
"complain",
"that",
"the",
"country",
"supports",
"rebel",
"groups",
"in",
"the",
"region",
".",
"Officials",
"also",
"insist",
"Mr.",
"Bush",
"will",
"use",
"the",
"trip",
"to",
"highlight",
"his",
"own",
"initiatives",
"for",
"pushing",
"democracy",
"in",
"the",
"region",
",",
"fighting",
"illegal",
"drugs",
"and",
"assisting",
"the",
"less",
"developed",
"countries",
".",
"``",
"Let",
"me",
"say",
"there",
"is",
"a",
"symbolic",
"component",
"to",
"this",
"trip",
",",
"''",
"Secretary",
"of",
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"James",
"Baker",
"told",
"reporters",
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".",
"``",
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"wo",
"n't",
"be",
"any",
"formal",
"resolutions",
"or",
"communiques",
",",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"think",
".",
"But",
"we",
"still",
"see",
"this",
"as",
"an",
"opportunity",
"to",
"discuss",
"many",
",",
"many",
"very",
"important",
"issues",
"."
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[
"An",
"arbitrator",
"awarded",
"Eastern",
"Airlines",
"pilots",
"between",
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"60",
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"and",
"$",
"100",
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"back",
"pay",
",",
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"bankruptcy-law",
"reorganization",
".",
"Eastern",
",",
"a",
"unit",
"of",
"Texas",
"Air",
"Corp.",
",",
"said",
"it",
"is",
"examining",
"the",
"ruling",
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"if",
"it",
"can",
"appeal",
".",
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"unclear",
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"Eastern",
"will",
"succeed",
"in",
"overturning",
"the",
"arbitrator",
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"decision",
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"made",
"in",
"a",
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"``",
"pay",
"parity",
"''",
"dispute",
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"predates",
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"Chapter",
"11",
"petition",
"and",
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"1986",
"acquisition",
"by",
"Texas",
"Air",
".",
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"'s",
"previous",
"court",
"efforts",
"to",
"head",
"off",
"the",
"pilots",
"'",
"demands",
"have",
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".",
"An",
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"does",
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"expect",
"that",
"the",
"arbitrator",
"'s",
"ruling",
"``",
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"have",
"any",
"overall",
"material",
"effect",
"on",
"the",
"company",
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"strategic",
"plan",
".",
"''",
"Bankruptcy",
"experts",
"said",
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"law",
"is",
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"clear",
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"such",
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"their",
"claim",
".",
"That",
"may",
"leave",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
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"for",
"U.S.",
"Bankruptcy",
"Judge",
"Burton",
"R.",
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",",
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"anything",
",",
"the",
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".",
"In",
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"contract",
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"calls",
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"such",
"grievances",
".",
"In",
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"Eastern",
"said",
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"was",
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"the",
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".",
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"is",
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".",
"James",
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"a",
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"the",
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"Line",
"Pilots",
"Association",
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"said",
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"were",
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".",
"``",
"This",
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"a",
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"not",
"only",
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"to",
"the",
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"committee",
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"the",
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"claim",
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"which",
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"would",
"have",
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"come",
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"of",
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"to",
"use",
"to",
"pay",
"off",
"other",
"bankruptcy",
"claims",
".",
"Eastern",
"and",
"its",
"creditors",
"are",
"in",
"the",
"final",
",",
"delicate",
"stages",
"of",
"negotiating",
"a",
"second",
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"the",
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"debts",
".",
"An",
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"had",
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"approval",
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"July",
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"fell",
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"when",
"Eastern",
"changed",
"its",
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"plan",
".",
"It",
"is",
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"whether",
"the",
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".",
"The",
"dispute",
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"pay",
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"clause",
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"'",
"contract",
".",
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"of",
"an",
"agreement",
"in",
"which",
"pilots",
"accepted",
"a",
"substantial",
"pay",
"cut",
"as",
"long",
"as",
"no",
"other",
"labor",
"group",
"got",
"a",
"raise",
".",
"Shortly",
"after",
"Texas",
"Air",
"took",
"control",
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"Eastern",
",",
"some",
"Machinists",
"union",
"supervisors",
"received",
"a",
"20",
"%",
"pay",
"raise",
".",
"The",
"pilots",
"argued",
"that",
"this",
"triggered",
"a",
"pay",
"raise",
"for",
"them",
".",
"Eastern",
"has",
"disputed",
"the",
"claim",
",",
"but",
"a",
"federal",
"district",
"court",
",",
"an",
"appeals",
"court",
"and",
"now",
"the",
"arbitrator",
"have",
"all",
"sided",
"with",
"the",
"pilots",
".",
"The",
"two",
"sides",
"do",
"n't",
"even",
"agree",
"about",
"how",
"much",
"money",
"is",
"at",
"issue",
".",
"The",
"pilots",
"put",
"the",
"amount",
"as",
"high",
"as",
"$",
"100",
"million",
",",
"the",
"company",
"at",
"$",
"65",
"million",
".",
"Another",
"arbitrator",
"is",
"hearing",
"another",
"pay",
"parity",
"case",
"between",
"Eastern",
"and",
"its",
"pilots",
",",
"resulting",
"from",
"a",
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"of",
"circumstances",
"involving",
"a",
"separate",
"pay",
"raise",
"granted",
"another",
"union",
".",
"A",
"decision",
"on",
"that",
"case",
"is",
"n't",
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",",
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",",
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"Mr.",
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".",
"``",
"Everyone",
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".",
"''",
"Especially",
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",",
"the",
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".",
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",",
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":",
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".",
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"technology",
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".",
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",",
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"make",
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",",
"less",
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"companies",
"to",
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"steel",
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"a",
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"Big",
"Steel",
"paid",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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",",
"which",
"by",
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"will",
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"blast",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"``",
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",",
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"Iron",
"Ore",
"and",
"Steel",
"Institute",
".",
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"is",
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"technology",
".",
"In",
"fact",
",",
"they",
"'ve",
"spent",
"billions",
"of",
"dollars",
"to",
"boost",
"the",
"percentage",
"of",
"continously",
"cast",
"steel",
"to",
"60.9",
"%",
"in",
"1988",
",",
"from",
"39.6",
"%",
"five",
"years",
"before",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
"their",
"balance",
"sheets",
"are",
"rich",
"with",
"diversity",
",",
"their",
"old",
"plants",
"shuttered",
",",
"and",
"work",
"forces",
"lean",
".",
"But",
"that",
"wo",
"n't",
"suffice",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"no",
"longer",
"enough",
"to",
"beat",
"the",
"guy",
"down",
"the",
"street",
".",
"You",
"have",
"to",
"beat",
"everyone",
"around",
"the",
"world",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Dennis",
".",
"He",
"wants",
"to",
"see",
"steelmakers",
"more",
"involved",
"in",
"computers",
"and",
"artificial",
"intelligence",
".",
"The",
"problem",
":",
"They",
"'re",
"saddled",
"with",
"huge",
"plants",
"that",
"require",
"costly",
"maintenance",
".",
"And",
"try",
"plying",
"new",
"dollars",
"free",
"in",
"a",
"market",
"that",
"is",
"softening",
",",
"hurt",
"by",
"a",
"strong",
"dollar",
"and",
"concerned",
"about",
"overcapacity",
"--",
"the",
"industry",
"'s",
"Darth",
"Vadar",
".",
"``",
"The",
"technology",
"revolution",
"is",
"going",
"to",
"be",
"very",
"threatening",
"to",
"established",
"producers",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Peter",
"Marcus",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"with",
"PaineWebber",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"They",
"'ve",
"got",
"too",
"much",
"invested",
"in",
"the",
"old",
"stuff",
"and",
"they",
"ca",
"n't",
"get",
"their",
"workers",
"to",
"be",
"flexible",
".",
"''",
"No",
"one",
"expects",
"minimills",
"to",
"eclipse",
"major",
"integrated",
"steelmakers",
",",
"who",
"remain",
"the",
"undisputed",
"kings",
"of",
"highest-quality",
"steel",
"used",
"for",
"autos",
"and",
"refrigerators",
".",
"Nucor",
"'s",
"plant",
"in",
"Crawfordsville",
",",
"Ind.",
",",
"ultimately",
"will",
"produce",
"only",
"one",
"million",
"tons",
"annually",
",",
"a",
"drop",
"in",
"the",
"40-million-ton-a-year",
"flat-rolled",
"steel",
"bucket",
",",
"and",
"it",
"will",
"be",
"years",
"before",
"such",
"plants",
"can",
"compete",
"in",
"the",
"high-profit",
"market",
".",
"Still",
",",
"flat-rolled",
"is",
"the",
"steel",
"industry",
"'s",
"bread",
"and",
"butter",
",",
"representing",
"about",
"half",
"of",
"the",
"80",
"million",
"tons",
"of",
"steel",
"expected",
"to",
"be",
"shipped",
"this",
"year",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
"the",
"process",
"is",
"n't",
"without",
"its",
"headaches",
".",
"Because",
"all",
"operations",
"are",
"connected",
",",
"one",
"equipment",
"failure",
"forces",
"a",
"complete",
"plant",
"shutdown",
".",
"On",
"some",
"days",
",",
"the",
"Nucor",
"plant",
"does",
"n't",
"produce",
"anything",
".",
"``",
"At",
"this",
"point",
",",
"the",
"minimill",
"capacity",
"wo",
"n't",
"make",
"a",
"great",
"dent",
"in",
"the",
"integrated",
"market",
",",
"but",
"it",
"does",
"challenge",
"them",
"to",
"develop",
"new",
"markets",
",",
"''",
"says",
"James",
"McCall",
",",
"vice",
"president",
",",
"materials",
",",
"at",
"Battelle",
",",
"a",
"technology",
"and",
"management-research",
"giant",
"based",
"in",
"Columbus",
",",
"Ohio",
".",
"Indeed",
",",
"with",
"demand",
"for",
"steel",
"not",
"growing",
"fast",
"enough",
"to",
"absorb",
"capacity",
",",
"steelmakers",
"will",
"have",
"to",
"change",
"the",
"way",
"they",
"do",
"business",
".",
"In",
"the",
"past",
",",
"says",
"Armco",
"'s",
"chief",
"economist",
"John",
"Corey",
",",
"steelmakers",
"made",
"a",
"product",
"and",
"set",
"it",
"out",
"on",
"the",
"loading",
"dock",
".",
"``",
"We",
"said",
":",
"`",
"We",
"'ve",
"got",
"a",
"product",
":",
"if",
"you",
"want",
"it",
",",
"you",
"can",
"buy",
"it",
",",
"'",
"''",
"he",
"says",
",",
"adding",
":",
"``",
"Now",
"we",
"'re",
"figuring",
"out",
"what",
"people",
"need",
",",
"and",
"are",
"going",
"back",
"to",
"make",
"it",
".",
"''",
"Armco",
"'s",
"sales",
"representatives",
"visit",
"the",
"General",
"Motors",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"Fairfax",
"assembly",
"plant",
"in",
"Kansas",
"City",
",",
"Mo.",
",",
"two",
"or",
"three",
"days",
"a",
"week",
".",
"When",
"they",
"determined",
"that",
"GM",
"needed",
"parts",
"more",
"quickly",
",",
"Armco",
"convinced",
"a",
"steel",
"service",
"center",
"to",
"build",
"a",
"processing",
"plant",
"nearby",
"so",
"shipments",
"could",
"be",
"delivered",
"within",
"15",
"minutes",
".",
"Cementing",
"such",
"relationships",
"with",
"major",
"clients",
"--",
"car",
"and",
"appliance",
"makers",
"--",
"is",
"a",
"means",
"of",
"survival",
",",
"especially",
"when",
"those",
"key",
"clients",
"are",
"relying",
"on",
"a",
"smaller",
"pool",
"of",
"producers",
"and",
"flirting",
"with",
"plastic",
"and",
"aluminum",
"makers",
".",
"For",
"example",
",",
"when",
"Detroit",
"began",
"talking",
"about",
"plastic-bodied",
"cars",
",",
"the",
"American",
"Iron",
"and",
"Steel",
"Institute",
"began",
"a",
"major",
"lobbying",
"effort",
"to",
"show",
"auto",
"makers",
"how",
"they",
"could",
"use",
"steel",
"more",
"efficiently",
"by",
"simply",
"redesigning",
"how",
"a",
"car",
"door",
"is",
"assembled",
".",
"But",
"steelmakers",
"must",
"also",
"find",
"new",
"markets",
".",
"After",
"letting",
"aluminum-makers",
"take",
"the",
"recycling",
"lead",
",",
"a",
"group",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"largest",
"steelmakers",
"started",
"a",
"recycling",
"institute",
"to",
"promote",
"steel",
"cans",
"to",
"an",
"environmentally",
"conscious",
"nation",
".",
"Battelle",
"'s",
"Mr.",
"McCall",
"thinks",
"steelmakers",
"should",
"concentrate",
"more",
"on",
"construction",
".",
"Weirton",
"Steel",
"Corp.",
",",
"Weirton",
",",
"W.",
"Va.",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"is",
"touting",
"to",
"homeowners",
"fashionable",
"steel",
"doors",
",",
"with",
"leaded",
"glass",
"inserts",
",",
"as",
"a",
"secure",
"and",
"energy-efficient",
"alternative",
"to",
"wooden",
"or",
"aluminum",
"ones",
".",
"Other",
"steelmakers",
"envision",
"steel",
"roofs",
"covering",
"suburbia",
".",
"Still",
"others",
"are",
"looking",
"at",
"overseas",
"markets",
".",
"USX",
"is",
"funneling",
"drilling",
"pipe",
"to",
"steel-hungry",
"Soviet",
"Union",
".",
"This",
"year",
",",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"largest",
"steelmaker",
"reactivated",
"its",
"overseas",
"sales",
"operation",
".",
"Producers",
"also",
"are",
"trying",
"to",
"differentiate",
"by",
"concentrating",
"on",
"higher-profit",
"output",
",",
"such",
"as",
"coated",
"and",
"electrogalvanized",
"products",
",",
"which",
"remain",
"beyond",
"the",
"reach",
"of",
"minimills",
".",
"Almost",
"all",
"capital-improvement",
"programs",
"announced",
"by",
"major",
"steelmakers",
"within",
"the",
"past",
"year",
"involve",
"building",
"electrogalvanizing",
"lines",
",",
"used",
"to",
"produce",
"steel",
"for",
"such",
"products",
"as",
"household",
"appliances",
"and",
"car",
"doors",
".",
"But",
"unfortunately",
",",
"that",
"segment",
"is",
"much",
"smaller",
"than",
"the",
"bread-and-butter",
"flat-rolled",
"steel",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"like",
"everyone",
"climbing",
"out",
"of",
"the",
"QE",
"II",
"and",
"getting",
"into",
"a",
"lifeboat",
",",
"''",
"says",
"John",
"Jacobson",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"with",
"AUS",
"Consultants",
".",
"``",
"After",
"a",
"while",
",",
"someone",
"has",
"to",
"go",
"over",
"the",
"side",
".",
"''",
"Although",
"he",
"does",
"n't",
"expect",
"any",
"bankruptcies",
",",
"he",
"does",
"see",
"more",
"plants",
"being",
"sold",
"or",
"closed",
".",
"Robert",
"Crandall",
",",
"with",
"the",
"Brookings",
"Institute",
",",
"agrees",
".",
"``",
"Unless",
"there",
"is",
"an",
"enormous",
"rate",
"of",
"economic",
"growth",
"or",
"a",
"further",
"drop",
"in",
"the",
"dollar",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"unlikely",
"that",
"consumption",
"of",
"U.S.",
"produced",
"steel",
"will",
"grow",
"sufficiently",
"to",
"offset",
"the",
"growth",
"of",
"minimills",
".",
"''",
"Not",
"to",
"mention",
"the",
"incursion",
"of",
"imports",
".",
"Japanese",
"and",
"European",
"steelmakers",
",",
"which",
"have",
"led",
"the",
"recent",
"technology",
"developments",
",",
"are",
"anxiously",
"awaiting",
"the",
"lifting",
"of",
"trade",
"restraints",
"in",
"1992",
".",
"Moreover",
",",
"the",
"U.S.",
"can",
"expect",
"more",
"competition",
"from",
"low-cost",
"producing",
"Pacific",
"Rim",
"and",
"Latin",
"American",
"countries",
".",
"A",
"Taiwanese",
"steelmaker",
"recently",
"announced",
"plans",
"to",
"build",
"a",
"Nucor-like",
"plant",
".",
"``",
"People",
"think",
"of",
"the",
"steel",
"business",
"as",
"an",
"old",
"and",
"mundane",
"smokestack",
"business",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Iverson",
".",
"``",
"They",
"'re",
"dead",
"wrong",
".",
"''",
"*",
"USX",
",",
"LTV",
",",
"Bethlehem",
",",
"Inland",
",",
"Armco",
",",
"National",
"Steel",
"**",
"Projected"
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[
"Arbitragers",
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",",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"83.3125",
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"76.7",
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",",
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"43.5",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"He",
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"22",
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"--",
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"--",
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",",
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".",
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"150,000",
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".",
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"United",
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"lifetime",
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".",
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",",
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",",
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"to",
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"seats",
"for",
"life",
"."
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[
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"Inc.",
",",
"the",
"world",
"'s",
"biggest",
"auction",
"house",
",",
"is",
"taking",
"a",
"huge",
"Wall",
"Street-style",
"risk",
"on",
"the",
"outcome",
"of",
"the",
"sale",
"of",
"art",
"from",
"the",
"estate",
"of",
"John",
"T.",
"Dorrance",
"Jr.",
",",
"the",
"Campbell",
"Soup",
"Co.",
"heir",
".",
"The",
"Financial",
"Services",
"division",
"has",
"guaranteed",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"family",
"that",
"it",
"will",
"receive",
"a",
"minimum",
"of",
"$",
"100",
"million",
"for",
"the",
"collection",
",",
"regardless",
"of",
"what",
"the",
"bids",
"for",
"the",
"art",
"works",
"total",
",",
"people",
"close",
"to",
"the",
"transaction",
"say",
".",
"The",
"collection",
",",
"which",
"includes",
"two",
"early",
"Picassos",
",",
"a",
"van",
"Gogh",
",",
"a",
"Monet",
",",
"other",
"paintings",
",",
"furniture",
"and",
"porcelains",
",",
"went",
"on",
"sale",
"last",
"night",
"in",
"the",
"first",
"of",
"six",
"auctions",
".",
"What",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"is",
"doing",
"closely",
"resembles",
"an",
"underwriting",
"by",
"an",
"investment",
"bank",
".",
"A",
"corporation",
"that",
"wants",
"to",
"sell",
"stock",
"or",
"bonds",
"goes",
"to",
"a",
"Wall",
"Street",
"firm",
",",
"which",
"purchases",
"the",
"securities",
"outright",
",",
"accepting",
"the",
"financial",
"risk",
"of",
"finding",
"buyers",
".",
"If",
"the",
"investment",
"bank",
"can",
"sell",
"the",
"securities",
"at",
"a",
"higher",
"price",
"than",
"it",
"paid",
"the",
"issuer",
",",
"it",
"makes",
"a",
"profit",
".",
"At",
"the",
"initial",
"sale",
"last",
"night",
",",
"for",
"example",
"--",
"the",
"sale",
"featuring",
"the",
"Impressionists",
"masters",
"--",
"bids",
"totaled",
"$",
"116",
"million",
".",
"That",
"was",
"slightly",
"above",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"presale",
"estimate",
"of",
"$",
"111",
"million",
".",
"Normally",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"would",
"have",
"earned",
"20",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"total",
"in",
"commissions",
".",
"Instead",
",",
"people",
"familiar",
"with",
"the",
"transaction",
"said",
",",
"the",
"auction",
"house",
"opted",
"to",
"forgo",
"that",
"percentage",
"in",
"order",
"to",
"obtain",
"the",
"collection",
"and",
"in",
"exchange",
"for",
"taking",
"a",
"bigger",
"chunk",
"of",
"proceeds",
"exceeding",
"$",
"100",
"million",
".",
"Art",
"dealers",
"say",
"that",
"while",
"auction",
"houses",
"occasionally",
"guarantee",
"the",
"seller",
"of",
"a",
"highly",
"desirable",
"work",
"of",
"art",
"a",
"minimum",
"price",
",",
"a",
"financial",
"commitment",
"of",
"this",
"size",
"is",
"unprecedented",
".",
"Diana",
"D.",
"Brooks",
",",
"president",
"of",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"North",
"America",
"division",
",",
"vehemently",
"denies",
"it",
"offered",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"heirs",
"a",
"money-back",
"guarantee",
",",
"calling",
"such",
"reports",
"``",
"inaccurate",
".",
"''",
"Buried",
"in",
"the",
"glossy",
"hardbound",
"catalog",
"for",
"the",
"sale",
",",
"however",
",",
"appears",
"the",
"statement",
",",
"``",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"has",
"an",
"interest",
"in",
"the",
"property",
"in",
"this",
"catalog",
".",
"''",
"Explains",
"a",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"spokeswoman",
",",
"the",
"statement",
"``",
"means",
"exactly",
"what",
"it",
"says",
".",
"We",
"have",
"some",
"level",
"of",
"financial",
"interest",
"''",
"in",
"the",
"collection",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"disclose",
"specifics",
".",
"''",
"Frank",
"Mirabello",
",",
"a",
"lawyer",
"for",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"estate",
"with",
"the",
"Philadelphia",
"law",
"firm",
"of",
"Morgan",
",",
"Lewis",
"&",
"Bockius",
",",
"declines",
"to",
"comment",
"on",
"the",
"financial",
"arrangements",
".",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"made",
"the",
"$",
"100",
"million",
"guarantee",
"to",
"keep",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"collection",
"away",
"from",
"its",
"archrival",
",",
"auction",
"house",
"Christie",
"'s",
"International",
"PLC",
";",
"Christie",
"'s",
"has",
"handled",
"smaller",
"sales",
"for",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"family",
"over",
"the",
"years",
".",
"When",
"Christie",
"'s",
"officials",
"asked",
"why",
"the",
"firm",
"was",
"n't",
"picked",
"to",
"sell",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"collection",
",",
"representatives",
"of",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"family",
"``",
"told",
"us",
"it",
"was",
"a",
"question",
"of",
"financial",
"considerations",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Michael",
"Findlay",
",",
"Christie",
"'s",
"head",
"of",
"impressionist",
"and",
"modern",
"paintings",
".",
"Collectors",
"who",
"have",
"made",
"their",
"money",
"on",
"Wall",
"Street",
"have",
"become",
"an",
"increasingly",
"important",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"art",
"business",
"and",
"their",
"money",
"has",
"helped",
"fuel",
"the",
"art",
"boom",
",",
"but",
"recently",
"it",
"appears",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"has",
"been",
"returning",
"the",
"compliment",
".",
"In",
"November",
"1987",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"essentially",
"offered",
"a",
"Wall",
"Street-style",
"``",
"bridge",
"loan",
"''",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"27",
"million",
"to",
"Australian",
"businessman",
"Alan",
"Bond",
"to",
"enable",
"him",
"to",
"purchase",
"Vincent",
"van",
"Gogh",
"'s",
"``",
"Irises",
"''",
"for",
"$",
"53.9",
"million",
".",
"It",
"was",
"the",
"highest",
"bid",
"in",
"history",
"for",
"a",
"work",
"of",
"art",
".",
"But",
"two",
"weeks",
"ago",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"said",
"that",
"it",
"has",
"the",
"painting",
"under",
"lock",
"and",
"key",
"because",
"the",
"loan",
"had",
"not",
"been",
"fully",
"repaid",
".",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"is",
"offering",
"such",
"deals",
"because",
"it",
"'s",
"an",
"art",
"sellers",
"'",
"market",
",",
"at",
"least",
"where",
"the",
"best",
"works",
"are",
"concerned",
",",
"says",
"Ralph",
"Lerner",
",",
"an",
"attorney",
"and",
"author",
"of",
"the",
"book",
"``",
"Art",
"Law",
".",
"''",
"``",
"There",
"seems",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"lot",
"of",
"art",
"for",
"sale",
",",
"but",
"there",
"'s",
"more",
"competition",
".",
"The",
"competition",
"gives",
"the",
"seller",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"cut",
"a",
"better",
"deal",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"The",
"Dorrance",
"family",
"will",
"still",
"receive",
"a",
"substantial",
"portion",
"of",
"the",
"auction",
"proceeds",
"above",
"$",
"100",
"million",
",",
"people",
"familiar",
"with",
"the",
"transaction",
"said",
".",
"But",
"it",
"'s",
"likely",
"that",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"will",
"take",
"a",
"higher",
"than",
"usual",
"commission",
",",
"called",
"an",
"override",
",",
"on",
"the",
"amount",
"exceeding",
"the",
"guarantee",
".",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"has",
"been",
"aggressively",
"promoting",
"the",
"Dorrance",
"sale",
".",
"At",
"a",
"news",
"conference",
"last",
"May",
"announcing",
"plans",
"for",
"the",
"auction",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"estimated",
"its",
"value",
"in",
"excess",
"of",
"$",
"100",
"million",
".",
"More",
"recently",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"has",
"predicted",
"the",
"collection",
"will",
"fetch",
"$",
"140",
"million",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"the",
"highest",
"estimate",
"for",
"a",
"single",
"collection",
"in",
"auction",
"history",
".",
"The",
"decision",
"to",
"put",
"the",
"entire",
"collection",
"on",
"the",
"block",
"stunned",
"many",
",",
"since",
"Mr.",
"Dorrance",
"had",
"served",
"as",
"chairman",
"of",
"the",
"Philadelphia",
"Museum",
"of",
"Art",
",",
"and",
"it",
"had",
"been",
"assumed",
"many",
"of",
"the",
"works",
"would",
"be",
"donated",
"to",
"the",
"institution",
".",
"At",
"last",
"night",
"'s",
"sale",
",",
"13",
"of",
"44",
"works",
"that",
"sold",
"were",
"purchased",
"by",
"Aska",
"International",
"Gallery",
",",
"the",
"art-acquisition",
"unit",
"of",
"Aichi",
"Financial",
",",
"a",
"Japanese",
"conglomerate",
"that",
"owns",
"7.5",
"%",
"of",
"Christie",
"'s",
".",
"Meanwhile",
",",
"Sotheby",
"'s",
"guarantee",
"is",
"raising",
"eyebrows",
"in",
"the",
"art",
"world",
".",
"``",
"The",
"consumer",
"has",
"to",
"throw",
"out",
"the",
"idea",
"that",
"the",
"auction",
"house",
"is",
"a",
"disinterested",
"middleman",
",",
"''",
"says",
"New",
"York",
"art",
"dealer",
"David",
"Tunick",
".",
"While",
"he",
"adds",
"that",
"he",
"has",
"no",
"problem",
"with",
"auction",
"houses",
"who",
"sell",
"works",
"in",
"which",
"they",
"have",
"a",
"financial",
"interest",
",",
"``",
"It",
"ought",
"not",
"to",
"be",
"hidden",
"in",
"some",
"small",
"print",
".",
"''",
"In",
"such",
"situations",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"the",
"house",
"``",
"is",
"going",
"to",
"put",
"the",
"best",
"light",
"on",
"things",
".",
"''",
"For",
"example",
",",
"an",
"auction",
"house",
"'s",
"comments",
"on",
"the",
"condition",
"of",
"a",
"work",
"of",
"art",
"that",
"is",
"up",
"for",
"sale",
"should",
"be",
"looked",
"at",
"with",
"``",
"very",
"open",
"eyes",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"more",
"and",
"more",
"of",
"this",
"cash-up-front",
"going",
"on",
"at",
"every",
"level",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Bruce",
"Miller",
",",
"president",
"of",
"Art",
"Funding",
"Corp.",
",",
"an",
"art",
"lender",
".",
"Dealers",
"and",
"auction",
"houses",
"``",
"know",
"if",
"they",
"do",
"n't",
"lay",
"out",
"a",
"half",
"a",
"million",
"for",
"this",
",",
"another",
"one",
"will",
";",
"it",
"'s",
"that",
"competitive",
".",
"''",
"In",
"January",
",",
"two",
"small",
"New",
"York",
"galleries",
",",
"the",
"Coe",
"Kerr",
"Gallery",
"and",
"Beadleston",
"Fine",
"Arts",
",",
"snatched",
"a",
"major",
"art",
"collection",
"owned",
"by",
"the",
"Askin",
"family",
"away",
"from",
"rival",
"auction-house",
"bidders",
"with",
"an",
"up-front",
"payment",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"25",
"million",
".",
"A",
"Christie",
"'s",
"spokeswoman",
"said",
"that",
"while",
"the",
"auction",
"house",
"sometimes",
"waives",
"its",
"seller",
"'s",
"commission",
"to",
"attract",
"art",
"works",
"--",
"it",
"still",
"gets",
"a",
"commission",
"from",
"the",
"buyer",
"--",
"Christie",
"'s",
"wo",
"n't",
"offer",
"financial",
"guarantees",
"because",
"``",
"Christie",
"'s",
"believes",
"its",
"primary",
"role",
"is",
"as",
"an",
"auction",
"house",
",",
"and",
"therefore",
"as",
"an",
"agent",
"-LCB-",
"for",
"buyer",
"and",
"seller",
"-RCB-",
",",
"not",
"as",
"a",
"bank",
"."
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[
"High-definition",
"television",
"promises",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"TV",
"of",
"tomorrow",
",",
"so",
"it",
"is",
"a",
"natural",
"multibillion-dollar",
"market",
".",
"Although",
"major",
"U.S.",
"manufacturers",
"have",
"all",
"but",
"ceded",
"the",
"main",
"segment",
"of",
"that",
"future",
"business",
"to",
"Japan",
",",
"not",
"everyone",
"here",
"is",
"ready",
"to",
"give",
"up",
".",
"A",
"handful",
"of",
"small",
"U.S.",
"companies",
"are",
"struggling",
"to",
"develop",
"the",
"technology",
"to",
"build",
"the",
"screens",
"for",
"the",
"thin",
",",
"high-quality",
"televisions",
"that",
"are",
"expected",
"to",
"hang",
"on",
"living",
"room",
"walls",
"by",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"1990s",
".",
"With",
"only",
"small",
"help",
"from",
"the",
"government",
",",
"these",
"start-up",
"concerns",
"are",
"trying",
"to",
"compete",
"with",
"the",
"Goliaths",
"of",
"the",
"Japanese",
"consumer",
"electronics",
"industry",
",",
"which",
"enjoy",
"considerable",
"backing",
"from",
"the",
"Japanese",
"government",
".",
"Photonics",
"Technology",
"Inc.",
"of",
"Northwood",
",",
"Ohio",
",",
"aims",
"to",
"use",
"a",
"new",
"form",
"of",
"plasma",
"technology",
"to",
"put",
"movie-quality",
"images",
"on",
"a",
"TV",
"display",
"that",
"is",
"40",
"inches",
"in",
"diameter",
"but",
"only",
"a",
"few",
"inches",
"thick",
".",
"Planar",
"Systems",
"Inc.",
"of",
"Beaverton",
",",
"Ore.",
",",
"the",
"largest",
"of",
"these",
"firms",
",",
"with",
"$",
"20",
"million",
"in",
"annual",
"revenue",
",",
"has",
"similar",
"plans",
".",
"It",
"already",
"has",
"had",
"success",
"in",
"electroluminescence",
",",
"another",
"promising",
"technology",
"adaptable",
"for",
"high-definition",
"television",
".",
"Two",
"other",
"firms",
",",
"Ovonic",
"Imaging",
"Systems",
"Inc.",
"of",
"Troy",
",",
"Mich.",
",",
"and",
"Magnascreen",
"Corp.",
"of",
"Pittsburgh",
"are",
"developing",
"a",
"variation",
"of",
"the",
"flat-panel",
"screens",
"called",
"active-matrix",
"liquid",
"crystal",
"displays",
".",
"The",
"new",
"technologies",
"are",
"intended",
"to",
"retire",
"the",
"cathode-ray",
"tube",
",",
"which",
"accounts",
"for",
"most",
"of",
"the",
"bulk",
"of",
"the",
"conventional",
"TV",
"set",
".",
"Replacing",
"the",
"cathode-ray",
"tube",
"with",
"a",
"large",
",",
"thin",
"screen",
"is",
"the",
"key",
"to",
"the",
"creation",
"of",
"a",
"high-definition",
"television",
",",
"or",
"HDTV",
",",
"which",
"is",
"expected",
"to",
"become",
"a",
"$",
"30",
"billion",
"business",
"world-wide",
"within",
"a",
"decade",
".",
"Large",
"U.S.",
"companies",
"are",
"interested",
"in",
"other",
"segments",
"of",
"the",
"HDTV",
"business",
",",
"such",
"as",
"signal-processing",
"and",
"broadcast",
"equipment",
".",
"But",
"except",
"for",
"Zenith",
"Electronics",
"Corp.",
"and",
"International",
"Business",
"Machines",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"is",
"collaborating",
"with",
"Toshiba",
"on",
"computer",
"displays",
",",
"they",
"are",
"poorly",
"positioned",
"to",
"exploit",
"advances",
"in",
"large",
"panels",
".",
"General",
"Electric",
"Co.",
"recently",
"sold",
"off",
"its",
"interests",
"in",
"liquid-crystal",
"displays",
"to",
"Thompson-CSF",
"of",
"France",
".",
"``",
"We",
"found",
"the",
"market",
"not",
"developing",
"as",
"we",
"thought",
"it",
"would",
",",
"''",
"a",
"GE",
"spokesman",
"says",
".",
"The",
"small",
"U.S.",
"firms",
"are",
"persisting",
"because",
"of",
"their",
"strong",
"positions",
"in",
"patents",
",",
"and",
"because",
"the",
"prize",
"is",
"still",
"there",
"to",
"be",
"seized",
".",
"``",
"No",
"one",
"yet",
"has",
"shown",
"the",
"ability",
"to",
"manufacture",
"these",
"panels",
"''",
"at",
"commercial",
"costs",
",",
"says",
"Zvi",
"Yaniv",
",",
"the",
"president",
"of",
"Ovonic",
"Imaging",
".",
"He",
"says",
"he",
"thinks",
"his",
"company",
"is",
"just",
"a",
"few",
"years",
"from",
"doing",
"that",
".",
"The",
"Bush",
"administration",
",",
"hearing",
"conflicting",
"advice",
"about",
"what",
"its",
"role",
"in",
"HDTV",
"should",
"be",
",",
"is",
"n't",
"doing",
"much",
"for",
"now",
".",
"The",
"only",
"material",
"support",
"it",
"is",
"extending",
"to",
"the",
"struggling",
"U.S.",
"industry",
"is",
"$",
"30",
"million",
"in",
"awards",
"from",
"the",
"Pentagon",
"'s",
"Defense",
"Advanced",
"Research",
"Projects",
"Agency",
".",
"The",
"DARPA",
"funds",
"are",
"a",
"pittance",
"compared",
"with",
"what",
"Japan",
"and",
"other",
"prospective",
"competitors",
"are",
"spending",
".",
"The",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"estimates",
"that",
"Japanese",
"government",
"and",
"industry",
"spending",
"on",
"HDTV",
"research",
"is",
"already",
"over",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
".",
"``",
"Unless",
"it",
"gets",
"more",
"help",
",",
"the",
"U.S.",
"industry",
"wo",
"n't",
"have",
"a",
"chance",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Peter",
"Friedman",
",",
"Photonics",
"'s",
"executive",
"vice",
"president",
".",
"Thus",
"far",
",",
"almost",
"all",
"of",
"the",
"basic",
"technology",
"relating",
"to",
"high-definition",
"television",
"has",
"come",
"from",
"U.S.",
"laboratories",
".",
"But",
"Peter",
"Brody",
",",
"Magnascreen",
"'s",
"president",
",",
"says",
"Japanese",
"companies",
"are",
"poised",
"to",
"snatch",
"the",
"technology",
"and",
"put",
"it",
"to",
"commercial",
"use",
",",
"just",
"as",
"they",
"did",
"with",
"earlier",
"U.S.",
"innovations",
"in",
"color",
"television",
"and",
"video",
"recording",
".",
"In",
"the",
"1970s",
",",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"helped",
"develop",
"the",
"first",
"display",
"panels",
"based",
"on",
"active-matrix",
"liquid",
"crystals",
"at",
"Westinghouse",
"Electric",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"research",
"labs",
"in",
"Pittsburgh",
".",
"The",
"panels",
"are",
"like",
"oversized",
"semiconductors",
"surfaced",
"with",
"a",
"million",
"or",
"more",
"picture",
"elements",
",",
"each",
"contributing",
"to",
"the",
"color",
"and",
"tone",
"of",
"a",
"TV",
"image",
".",
"In",
"1979",
",",
"however",
",",
"Westinghouse",
"abandoned",
"the",
"project",
"along",
"with",
"its",
"stake",
"in",
"advanced",
"television",
".",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"left",
"the",
"company",
"to",
"find",
"other",
"backers",
".",
"He",
"has",
"a",
"claim",
"to",
"the",
"right",
"to",
"commercialize",
"the",
"Westinghouse",
"patents",
",",
"but",
"he",
"contends",
"that",
"those",
"patents",
"are",
"being",
"infringed",
"by",
"a",
"number",
"of",
"Japanese",
"producers",
".",
"``",
"Most",
"American",
"investors",
"have",
"just",
"given",
"up",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Brody",
"says",
".",
"``",
"They",
"are",
"n't",
"prepared",
"to",
"compete",
"in",
"an",
"area",
"where",
"the",
"Japanese",
"want",
"to",
"enter",
".",
"''",
"Many",
"critics",
"question",
"the",
"industry",
"'s",
"need",
"for",
"federal",
"support",
";",
"the",
"Pentagon",
"justifies",
"its",
"help",
"on",
"national-security",
"grounds",
".",
"``",
"We",
"do",
"n't",
"see",
"a",
"domestic",
"source",
"for",
"some",
"of",
"our",
"-LCB-",
"HDTV",
"-RCB-",
"requirements",
",",
"and",
"that",
"'s",
"a",
"source",
"of",
"concern",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Michael",
"Kelly",
",",
"director",
"of",
"DARPA",
"'s",
"defense",
"manufacturing",
"office",
".",
"So",
"DARPA",
"is",
"trying",
"to",
"keep",
"the",
"industry",
"interested",
"in",
"developing",
"large",
"display",
"panels",
"by",
"doling",
"out",
"research",
"funds",
".",
"HDTV",
"already",
"has",
"some",
"military",
"applications",
",",
"such",
"as",
"creating",
"realistic",
"flight",
"simulations",
"and",
"transmitting",
"information",
"to",
"combat",
"commanders",
".",
"The",
"Navy",
"is",
"ordering",
"displays",
"for",
"its",
"Aegis",
"cruisers",
"and",
"the",
"Army",
"wants",
"smaller",
"versions",
"for",
"its",
"Abrams",
"battle",
"tanks",
".",
"The",
"Commerce",
"Department",
"also",
"is",
"trying",
"to",
"encourage",
"HDTV",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"benefits",
"that",
"could",
"spin",
"off",
"to",
"the",
"semiconductor",
"and",
"computer",
"industries",
".",
"``",
"It",
"is",
"n't",
"just",
"yuppie",
"television",
",",
"''",
"argues",
"Jack",
"Clifford",
",",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"department",
"'s",
"office",
"of",
"microelectronics",
"and",
"instrumentation",
".",
"``",
"The",
"industry",
"will",
"create",
"industrial",
"products",
"such",
"as",
"displays",
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"(",
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"Commission",
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[
"Carnival",
"Cruise",
"Lines",
"Inc.",
"'s",
"common",
"stock",
"was",
"dragged",
"down",
"yesterday",
"amid",
"concerns",
"that",
"a",
"bankruptcy",
"filing",
"by",
"a",
"Finnish",
"shipbuilder",
"would",
"delay",
"delivery",
"of",
"three",
"big",
"cruise",
"ships",
".",
"The",
"Miami-based",
"company",
"'s",
"stock",
"fell",
"$",
"1.75",
"yesterday",
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"$",
"20.75",
"a",
"share",
"in",
"heavy",
"American",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
"composite",
"trading",
".",
"Early",
"yesterday",
",",
"Carnival",
"said",
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"it",
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"been",
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"notified",
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"Marine",
"Industries",
",",
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"is",
"building",
"its",
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"new",
"cruise",
"ships",
",",
"planned",
"to",
"file",
"for",
"bankruptcy",
".",
"Officials",
"at",
"Carnival",
"declined",
"to",
"comment",
".",
"``",
"There",
"is",
"just",
"a",
"tremendous",
"amount",
"of",
"uncertainty",
"about",
"what",
"the",
"effect",
",",
"if",
"any",
",",
"of",
"all",
"this",
"is",
",",
"''",
"said",
"John",
"P.",
"Uphoff",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"at",
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"James",
"Associates",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"I",
"did",
"n't",
"even",
"know",
"that",
"a",
"company",
"in",
"a",
"socialistic",
"country",
"could",
"file",
"for",
"bankruptcy",
".",
"''",
"Carnival",
"said",
"the",
"``",
"Fantasy",
",",
"''",
"the",
"first",
"of",
"the",
"three",
"$",
"200",
"million",
"ships",
"that",
"Carnival",
"has",
"on",
"order",
",",
"is",
"scheduled",
"to",
"be",
"delivered",
"next",
"month",
",",
"just",
"in",
"time",
"for",
"the",
"winter",
"tourist",
"season",
"in",
"the",
"Caribbean",
".",
"That",
"ship",
",",
"which",
"would",
"carry",
"about",
"2,050",
"passengers",
",",
"would",
"expand",
"the",
"capacity",
"of",
"Carnival",
"'s",
"existing",
"14-ship",
"fleet",
"by",
"24",
"%",
".",
"The",
"second",
"ship",
",",
"which",
"is",
"half-completed",
",",
"is",
"scheduled",
"to",
"be",
"delivered",
"in",
"fall",
"1990",
",",
"and",
"the",
"third",
"in",
"fall",
"1991",
".",
"``",
"There",
"'s",
"a",
"99",
"%",
"chance",
"that",
"the",
"Fantasy",
"will",
"be",
"delivered",
"close",
"to",
"schedule",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Caroline",
"Levy",
",",
"an",
"analyst",
"at",
"Shearson",
"Lehman",
"Hutton",
"Inc",
".",
"``",
"The",
"others",
"will",
"probably",
"be",
"delivered",
"as",
"well",
",",
"but",
"Carnival",
"will",
"likely",
"have",
"to",
"pay",
"a",
"higher",
"price",
"for",
"them",
".",
"''",
"She",
"said",
"the",
"company",
"could",
"pay",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"25",
"%",
"more",
"for",
"the",
"ships",
".",
"If",
"the",
"ships",
"are",
"n't",
"delivered",
",",
"however",
",",
"it",
"will",
"likely",
"have",
"an",
"effect",
"on",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"earnings",
"as",
"soon",
"as",
"the",
"1990",
"fiscal",
"year",
",",
"which",
"begins",
"Dec.",
"1",
".",
"Analysts",
"said",
"those",
"estimates",
"--",
"which",
"range",
"from",
"about",
"$",
"1.80",
"a",
"share",
"to",
"$",
"1.95",
"a",
"share",
"--",
"are",
"based",
"on",
"Fantasy",
"being",
"in",
"operation",
"in",
"1990",
".",
"If",
"the",
"ship",
"fails",
"to",
"arrive",
",",
"those",
"per-share",
"earnings",
"estimates",
"could",
"be",
"trimmed",
"15",
"cents",
"or",
"more",
".",
"Analysts",
"were",
"n't",
"willing",
"to",
"speculate",
"on",
"how",
"much",
"money",
"Carnival",
"might",
"lose",
"through",
"deposits",
".",
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",",
"a",
"company",
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"a",
"portion",
"of",
"the",
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"cost",
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"a",
"ship",
"as",
"it",
"reaches",
"various",
"stages",
"of",
"construction",
".",
"Carnival",
",",
"for",
"example",
",",
"has",
"already",
"paid",
"about",
"$",
"160",
"million",
"of",
"the",
"total",
"cost",
"for",
"Fantasy",
".",
"Some",
"analysts",
"say",
"this",
"may",
"give",
"it",
"the",
"right",
"to",
"seize",
"the",
"ship",
"if",
"the",
"situation",
"warrants",
"it",
".",
"According",
"to",
"reports",
"from",
"Finland",
",",
"Waertsilae",
"Marine",
",",
"19%-owned",
"by",
"conglomerate",
"Oy",
"Waertsilae",
",",
"filed",
"for",
"bankruptcy",
"yesterday",
"after",
"the",
"shipyard",
"'s",
"contractors",
"had",
"started",
"to",
"demand",
"bank",
"guarantees",
".",
"The",
"shipyard",
"disclosed",
"in",
"mid-August",
"that",
"it",
"expected",
"losses",
"stemming",
"from",
"a",
"series",
"of",
"unprofitable",
"orders",
"."
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[
"Malcolm",
"S.",
"Todt",
"was",
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"president",
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"municipalities",
",",
"a",
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"bond",
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".",
"Mr.",
"Todt",
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"."
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[
"Chandler",
"Insurance",
"Co.",
"said",
"it",
"expects",
"to",
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"net",
"income",
"jumped",
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"2.8",
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",",
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",",
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"insurer",
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"1.4",
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",",
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"a",
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",",
"on",
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"16.5",
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".",
"In",
"an",
"interview",
",",
"W.",
"Brent",
"LeGere",
",",
"chairman",
"and",
"chief",
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"officer",
",",
"said",
"he",
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"in",
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"latest",
"quarter",
"to",
"total",
"about",
"$",
"28",
"million",
".",
"The",
"earnings-per-share",
"figures",
"reflect",
"a",
"25",
"%",
"stock",
"dividend",
"in",
"June",
"1989",
".",
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"LeGere",
"attributed",
"the",
"earnings",
"increase",
"to",
"growth",
"in",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"longhaul",
"trucking",
"insurance",
"lines",
"and",
"the",
"ability",
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"keep",
"premium",
"rates",
"firm",
"."
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[
"Diamond",
"Shamrock",
"Offshore",
"Partners",
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"offshore",
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".",
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".",
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"Offshore",
"'s",
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"8.25",
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[
"Housing",
"construction",
"sank",
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"to",
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"lowest",
"level",
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"the",
"last",
"recession",
",",
"the",
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"reported",
".",
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",",
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"1982",
",",
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"the",
"end",
"of",
"a",
"recession",
".",
"Originally",
"the",
"department",
"had",
"reported",
"the",
"August",
"decline",
"as",
"5",
"%",
".",
"The",
"numbers",
"suggest",
"that",
"the",
"housing",
"industry",
"is",
"still",
"suffering",
"the",
"effects",
"of",
"the",
"Federal",
"Reserve",
"'s",
"battle",
"against",
"inflation",
".",
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"had",
"shown",
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"of",
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"this",
"summer",
",",
"after",
"the",
"central",
"bank",
"began",
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"relax",
"its",
"clamp",
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",",
"allowing",
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"rates",
"to",
"drop",
"a",
"bit",
"after",
"pushing",
"them",
"up",
"for",
"a",
"year",
".",
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"of",
"new",
"homes",
"rose",
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"inventories",
"of",
"houses",
",",
"which",
"had",
"been",
"climbing",
",",
"dropped",
".",
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"new",
"construction",
"in",
"all",
"types",
"of",
"homes",
"waned",
",",
"from",
"single-family",
"houses",
"to",
"large",
"apartment",
"complexes",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"pretty",
"much",
"weak",
"across",
"the",
"board",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Martin",
"Regalia",
",",
"chief",
"economist",
"of",
"the",
"National",
"Council",
"of",
"Savings",
"Institutions",
".",
"Mr.",
"Regalia",
"said",
"the",
"industry",
"may",
"be",
"reluctant",
"to",
"step",
"up",
"building",
"at",
"the",
"moment",
"for",
"fear",
"the",
"inventories",
"of",
"unsold",
"homes",
"will",
"increase",
"again",
".",
"Another",
"reason",
"for",
"the",
"weakness",
",",
"he",
"said",
",",
"may",
"be",
"that",
"mortgage",
"rates",
"have",
"hit",
"a",
"plateau",
"since",
"they",
"began",
"edging",
"down",
"after",
"a",
"peak",
"in",
"March",
".",
"In",
"August",
",",
"rates",
"on",
"30-year",
"fixed-rate",
"mortgages",
"started",
"creeping",
"up",
"a",
"bit",
",",
"but",
"they",
"inched",
"down",
"again",
"through",
"September",
".",
"``",
"Rates",
"have",
"n't",
"really",
"peeled",
"off",
"that",
"much",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Regalia",
"said",
".",
"``",
"We",
"'ve",
"kind",
"of",
"settled",
"now",
"into",
"an",
"interest-rate",
"environment",
"that",
"'s",
"fairly",
"high",
".",
"''",
"Work",
"was",
"begun",
"on",
"single",
"family",
"homes",
"--",
"the",
"core",
"of",
"the",
"housing",
"market",
"--",
"at",
"an",
"annual",
"rate",
"of",
"971,000",
"in",
"September",
",",
"a",
"drop",
"of",
"2.1",
"%",
"from",
"the",
"previous",
"month",
".",
"That",
"followed",
"a",
"3.3",
"%",
"decline",
"in",
"August",
".",
"Construction",
"of",
"apartments",
"and",
"other",
"multi-family",
"dwellings",
"slipped",
"2.2",
"%",
"to",
"an",
"annual",
"rate",
"of",
"1,022,000",
"following",
"a",
"3.5",
"%",
"decline",
"in",
"August",
".",
"The",
"number",
"of",
"building",
"permits",
"issued",
"for",
"future",
"construction",
"dropped",
"2.4",
"%",
"to",
"a",
"1,296,000",
"annual",
"rate",
"after",
"rising",
"3.7",
"%",
"in",
"August",
".",
"All",
"the",
"numbers",
"were",
"adjusted",
"for",
"normal",
"seasonal",
"variations",
"in",
"building",
"activity",
".",
"The",
"housing",
"starts",
"numbers",
",",
"however",
",",
"are",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"least",
"precise",
"of",
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"30",
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".",
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"35.23",
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"cable",
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".",
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"electric",
"wires",
"and",
"cables",
"rose",
"13.2",
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"to",
"153.93",
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[
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[
"Robert",
"L.",
"Bernstein",
",",
"chairman",
"and",
"president",
"of",
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"House",
"Inc.",
",",
"announced",
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"resignation",
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"house",
"he",
"has",
"run",
"for",
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".",
"A",
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",",
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".",
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"Si",
"Newhouse",
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"'s",
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"decision",
"I",
"reached",
".",
"''",
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"elaborate",
",",
"other",
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"to",
"say",
",",
"``",
"It",
"just",
"seemed",
"the",
"right",
"thing",
"to",
"do",
"at",
"this",
"minute",
".",
"Sometimes",
"you",
"just",
"go",
"with",
"your",
"gut",
".",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Bernstein",
"said",
"he",
"will",
"stay",
"until",
"Dec.",
"31",
"and",
"work",
"with",
"his",
"successor",
",",
"who",
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"named",
"soon",
".",
"Mr.",
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",",
"meanwhile",
",",
"insisted",
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"he",
"is",
"n't",
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"Bernstein",
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"the",
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"of",
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"House",
",",
"the",
"largest",
"trade",
"publishing",
"house",
"in",
"the",
"U.S.",
".",
"The",
"company",
"said",
"the",
"publisher",
"'s",
"annual",
"sales",
"volume",
"increased",
"to",
"$",
"800",
"million",
"from",
"$",
"40",
"million",
"during",
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"Bernstein",
"'s",
"tenure",
".",
"``",
"Bob",
"has",
"handled",
"the",
"extraordinary",
"growth",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"quite",
"brilliantly",
",",
"''",
"said",
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"Newhouse",
".",
"``",
"The",
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",",
"it",
"'s",
"stable",
",",
"it",
"'s",
"got",
"good",
"people",
".",
"Bob",
"has",
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"natural",
"time",
".",
"''",
"Publishing",
"officials",
"believe",
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"House",
"has",
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"spectacular",
"growth",
"and",
"has",
"smoothly",
"integrated",
"many",
"acquisitions",
"in",
"recent",
"years",
",",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"bigger",
"ones",
"have",
"n't",
"been",
"absorbed",
"so",
"easily",
".",
"Crown",
"Publishing",
"Group",
",",
"acquired",
"last",
"year",
",",
"is",
"said",
"to",
"be",
"turning",
"in",
"disappointing",
"results",
".",
"As",
"a",
"private",
"company",
",",
"Random",
"House",
"does",
"n't",
"report",
"its",
"earnings",
".",
"Mr.",
"Bernstein",
",",
"who",
"succeeded",
"Bennett",
"Cerf",
",",
"has",
"been",
"only",
"the",
"second",
"president",
"of",
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"House",
"since",
"it",
"was",
"founded",
"in",
"1925",
".",
"Speculation",
"on",
"his",
"successor",
"centers",
"on",
"a",
"number",
"of",
"division",
"heads",
"at",
"the",
"house",
".",
"Possible",
"candidates",
"include",
"Susan",
"Petersen",
",",
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"Rey/Fawcett",
",",
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"House",
"'s",
"huge",
"and",
"successful",
"paperback",
"division",
".",
"Some",
"say",
"Anthony",
"Cheetham",
",",
"head",
"of",
"a",
"recently",
"acquired",
"British",
"company",
",",
"Century",
"Hutchinson",
",",
"could",
"be",
"chosen",
".",
"There",
"is",
"also",
"speculation",
"that",
"Mr.",
"Newhouse",
"could",
"bring",
"in",
"a",
"powerhouse",
"businessman",
"or",
"another",
"Newhouse",
"family",
"member",
"to",
"run",
"the",
"business",
"side",
",",
"in",
"combination",
"with",
"a",
"publishing",
"executive",
"like",
"Robert",
"Gottlieb",
",",
"who",
"left",
"Random",
"House",
"'s",
"Alfred",
"A.",
"Knopf",
"to",
"run",
"the",
"New",
"Yorker",
",",
"also",
"owned",
"by",
"the",
"Newhouse",
"family",
".",
"Not",
"included",
"on",
"the",
"most-likely-successor",
"list",
"are",
"Joni",
"Evans",
",",
"recruited",
"two",
"years",
"ago",
"to",
"be",
"publisher",
"of",
"adult",
"trade",
"books",
"for",
"Random",
"House",
",",
"and",
"Sonny",
"Mehta",
",",
"president",
"of",
"the",
"prestigious",
"Alfred",
"A.",
"Knopf",
"unit",
".",
"When",
"Ms.",
"Evans",
"took",
"her",
"job",
",",
"several",
"important",
"divisions",
"that",
"had",
"reported",
"to",
"her",
"predecessor",
"were",
"n't",
"included",
"partly",
"because",
"she",
"did",
"n't",
"wish",
"to",
"be",
"a",
"full-time",
"administrator",
".",
"Mr.",
"Mehta",
"is",
"widely",
"viewed",
"as",
"a",
"brilliant",
"editor",
"but",
"a",
"less-than-brilliant",
"administrator",
"and",
"his",
"own",
"departure",
"was",
"rumored",
"recently",
".",
"Mr.",
"Bernstein",
",",
"a",
"tall",
",",
"energetic",
"man",
"who",
"is",
"widely",
"respected",
"as",
"a",
"publishing",
"executive",
",",
"has",
"spent",
"much",
"of",
"his",
"time",
"in",
"recent",
"years",
"on",
"human",
"rights",
"issues",
"."
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[
"If",
"growth",
"regains",
"its",
"glamour",
"among",
"investors",
",",
"a",
"sluggish",
"segment",
"of",
"the",
"Nasdaq",
"over-the-counter",
"market",
"could",
"show",
"some",
"flash",
".",
"Some",
"stock",
"pickers",
"already",
"are",
"targeting",
"the",
"OTC",
"market",
",",
"where",
",",
"they",
"say",
",",
"await",
"plenty",
"of",
"small",
"-",
"and",
"medium-sized",
"growth",
"stocks",
".",
"Best",
"of",
"all",
",",
"they",
"add",
",",
"these",
"growth",
"issues",
",",
"unlike",
"their",
"big",
"blue-chip",
"cousins",
"on",
"the",
"New",
"York",
"Stock",
"Exchange",
",",
"are",
"languishing",
"at",
"depressed",
"prices",
".",
"Growth",
"stocks",
"will",
"return",
"to",
"favor",
",",
"some",
"analysts",
"and",
"money",
"managers",
"think",
",",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"jitters",
"caused",
"by",
"the",
"market",
"'s",
"steep",
"slide",
"on",
"Oct.",
"13",
",",
"and",
"because",
"of",
"the",
"current",
"swell",
"of",
"disappointing",
"earnings",
"announcements",
".",
"Against",
"such",
"a",
"backdrop",
",",
"companies",
"with",
"proven",
"track",
"records",
"of",
"earnings",
"gains",
"of",
"20",
"%",
"or",
"so",
"annually",
"have",
"extra",
"appeal",
".",
"``",
"The",
"market",
"will",
"have",
"to",
"look",
"for",
"a",
"new",
"theme",
"now",
"and",
"that",
"theme",
"will",
"be",
"a",
"return",
"to",
"growth",
",",
"''",
"declares",
"Mary",
"Farrell",
",",
"a",
"PaineWebber",
"analyst",
".",
"Among",
"her",
"OTC",
"picks",
"are",
"Oshkosh",
"B'Gosh",
"and",
"A&W",
"Brands",
".",
"Like",
"many",
"OTC",
"growth",
"issues",
",",
"they",
"have",
"market",
"values",
"--",
"as",
"measured",
"by",
"stock",
"price",
"times",
"shares",
"outstanding",
"--",
"of",
"roughly",
"$",
"100",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"500",
"million",
".",
"Some",
"like",
"to",
"specialize",
"in",
"growth",
"companies",
"whose",
"shares",
"have",
"n't",
"traded",
"publicly",
"very",
"long",
".",
"These",
"are",
"sometimes",
"dubbed",
"``",
"emerging",
"''",
"growth",
"companies",
",",
"though",
"they",
"also",
"have",
"expanding-profit",
"track",
"records",
".",
"While",
"many",
"growth",
"stocks",
"are",
"small",
",",
"not",
"all",
"small",
"stocks",
"have",
"earnings-growth",
"momentum",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"an",
"important",
"distinction",
"because",
"some",
"analysts",
"and",
"brokers",
",",
"who",
"perennially",
"predict",
"that",
"small",
"stocks",
"are",
"about",
"to",
"outperform",
"bigger",
"issues",
",",
"may",
"use",
"any",
"spurt",
"in",
"growth",
"issues",
"to",
"help",
"them",
"sell",
"all",
"small",
"stocks",
".",
"``",
"You",
"can",
"find",
"some",
"good",
",",
"quality",
"companies",
"over",
"the",
"counter",
",",
"''",
"but",
"investors",
"should",
"be",
"selective",
",",
"says",
"John",
"Palicka",
",",
"chief",
"portfolio",
"manager",
"at",
"Midco",
"Investors",
",",
"a",
"Newark",
",",
"N.J.",
",",
"money",
"management",
"company",
"with",
"about",
"$",
"900",
"million",
"invested",
"in",
"growth",
"stocks",
"of",
"varying",
"sizes",
".",
"Mr.",
"Palicka",
"'s",
"picks",
"from",
"the",
"OTC",
"market",
"include",
"Legent",
",",
"Mail",
"Boxes",
"Etc.",
",",
"and",
"Payco",
"American",
".",
"The",
"main",
"argument",
"for",
"growth",
"stocks",
"is",
"their",
"usually",
"superior",
"performance",
"in",
"a",
"slowing",
"economy",
".",
"``",
"If",
"the",
"market",
"refocuses",
"on",
"earnings",
",",
"we",
"should",
"get",
"better",
"valuations",
"of",
"growth",
"stocks",
",",
"''",
"says",
"L.",
"Keith",
"Mullins",
",",
"a",
"growth-stock",
"analyst",
"at",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
".",
"Eventually",
",",
"he",
"believes",
",",
"investors",
"will",
"be",
"willing",
"to",
"pay",
"higher",
"prices",
"for",
"companies",
"with",
"proven",
"track",
"records",
"of",
"earnings",
"growth",
".",
"In",
"anticipation",
"of",
"that",
"shift",
",",
"he",
"and",
"other",
"analysts",
"are",
"encouraging",
"their",
"clients",
"to",
"buy",
"such",
"issues",
"now",
".",
"Understandably",
",",
"smaller",
"growth",
"stocks",
"have",
"n't",
"been",
"in",
"favor",
"recently",
".",
"The",
"average",
"issue",
"on",
"Standard",
"&",
"Poor",
"'s",
"500-stock",
"Index",
"gained",
"35",
"%",
"last",
"year",
",",
"Ms.",
"Farrell",
"of",
"PaineWebber",
"says",
".",
"Smaller-stock",
"earnings",
",",
"by",
"comparison",
",",
"rose",
"between",
"15",
"%",
"and",
"20",
"%",
".",
"In",
"addition",
",",
"earnings",
"growth",
"took",
"a",
"back",
"seat",
"to",
"cash",
"flow",
",",
"restructuring",
"and",
"takeover",
"potential",
",",
"and",
"breakup",
"value",
"as",
"the",
"preferred",
"stock-picking",
"standards",
"for",
"much",
"of",
"the",
"year",
".",
"Also",
",",
"the",
"smaller",
"growth",
"stocks",
"are",
"n't",
"widely",
"traded",
",",
"and",
"so",
"are",
"harder",
"to",
"buy",
"and",
"sell",
"quickly",
"than",
"blue",
"chips",
".",
"As",
"a",
"result",
",",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
"'s",
"Index",
"of",
"40",
"Emerging",
"Growth",
"Stocks",
"--",
"most",
"of",
"which",
"are",
"in",
"the",
"OTC",
"market",
"--",
"is",
"up",
"only",
"13",
"%",
"for",
"the",
"year",
",",
"while",
"the",
"Dow",
"Jones",
"Industrial",
"Average",
"has",
"leaped",
"24",
"%",
"and",
"the",
"S&P",
"500",
"has",
"grown",
"25",
"%",
".",
"The",
"Nasdaq",
"Composite",
"has",
"gained",
"23",
"%",
"this",
"year",
",",
"but",
"that",
"'s",
"largely",
"due",
"to",
"the",
"100",
"largest",
"nonfinancial",
"stocks",
",",
"which",
"have",
"soared",
"30",
"%",
".",
"Some",
"investors",
"are",
"skeptical",
"of",
"growth",
"stocks",
"because",
"investing",
"in",
"them",
"means",
"ignoring",
"that",
"maxim",
"found",
"in",
"the",
"fine",
"print",
"of",
"some",
"investment",
"advertisements",
"--",
"that",
"past",
"performance",
"is",
"n't",
"indicative",
"of",
"future",
"results",
".",
"``",
"People",
"are",
"naturally",
"suspicious",
"of",
"them",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Mullins",
"of",
"Morgan",
"Stanley",
".",
"Among",
"his",
"favorites",
"in",
"his",
"firm",
"'s",
"index",
"are",
"Legent",
",",
"Silicon",
"Graphics",
"and",
"Novell",
".",
"However",
",",
"more",
"money",
"managers",
"are",
"reassured",
"that",
"profit",
"is",
"regaining",
"importance",
".",
"Mark",
"Schoeppner",
",",
"portfolio",
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"Quaker",
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"Management",
",",
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"nervousness",
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",",
"analysts",
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"now",
"appear",
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"``",
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"based",
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"earnings",
"as",
"opposed",
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"the",
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".",
"''",
"Barney",
"Hallingby",
",",
"managing",
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"&",
"Quist",
",",
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"beginning",
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"play",
"a",
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"'",
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".",
"On",
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",",
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"Quist",
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"St.",
"Jude",
"Medical",
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"list",
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"20",
"stocks",
"it",
"strongly",
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".",
"The",
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",",
"Mr.",
"Hallingby",
"says",
".",
"St.",
"Jude",
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"market",
"value",
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"1",
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",",
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"small",
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".",
"The",
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"devices",
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"earnings",
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",",
"and",
"75",
"%",
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".",
"Kurt",
"Kruger",
",",
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"&",
"Quist",
",",
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"51",
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"2.15",
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".",
"St.",
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"finished",
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"1/4",
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"44",
"1/2",
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".",
"Friday",
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"Composite",
"Index",
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"0.13",
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"470.67",
".",
"The",
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"0.7",
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".",
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"stocks",
".",
"Friday",
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"158.2",
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";",
"the",
"daily",
"average",
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"the",
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"was",
"a",
"bustling",
"176.7",
"million",
".",
"Valley",
"National",
"lost",
"1",
"3/8",
"to",
"17",
"1/8",
"on",
"volume",
"of",
"1.9",
"million",
"shares",
".",
"The",
"company",
"reported",
"a",
"big",
"third-quarter",
"loss",
"on",
"Thursday",
".",
"Merchants",
"Bank",
"of",
"New",
"York",
"lost",
"1",
"to",
"106",
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"reporting",
"that",
"its",
"third-quarter",
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"fell",
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"$",
"1.62",
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"$",
"1.67",
"a",
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".",
"Eliot",
"Savings",
"Bank",
"lost",
"7/8",
"to",
"1",
"5/8",
"after",
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"it",
"had",
"a",
"$",
"4.8",
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"the",
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"mostly",
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"provisions",
".",
"In",
"the",
"1988",
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",",
"the",
"bank",
"earned",
"$",
"1.1",
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".",
"One",
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"stock",
"was",
"a",
"winner",
".",
"BanPonce",
"jumped",
"4",
"1/2",
"to",
"47",
"3/4",
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"agreeing",
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"Banco",
"Popular",
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"Rico",
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"56.25",
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".",
"Banco",
"Popular",
",",
"meanwhile",
",",
"dropped",
"1",
"1/4",
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"21",
"1/2",
".",
"Sierra",
"Tucson",
",",
"an",
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"offering",
",",
"made",
"the",
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"list",
".",
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"12",
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",",
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",",
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".",
"Sierra",
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".",
"Among",
"declining",
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",",
"a",
"weak",
"earnings",
"outlook",
"drove",
"Groundwater",
"Technology",
"down",
"6",
"1/4",
"to",
"24",
".",
"The",
"company",
"said",
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"for",
"its",
"second",
"quarter",
"ended",
"Oct.",
"28",
"could",
"drop",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"20",
"%",
"below",
"the",
"30",
"cents",
"a",
"share",
"reported",
"in",
"the",
"year-earlier",
"quarter",
".",
"Medstone",
"International",
"plummeted",
"3",
"1/4",
"to",
"7",
"1/4",
".",
"A",
"Food",
"and",
"Drug",
"Administration",
"advisory",
"panel",
"has",
"asked",
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"Medstone",
"perform",
"more",
"studies",
"on",
"its",
"device",
"to",
"treat",
"gallstones",
".",
"Qintex",
"Entertainment",
"dropped",
"2",
"5/8",
"to",
"1",
"1/2",
"after",
"seeking",
"protection",
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"creditor",
"lawsuits",
"under",
"Chapter",
"11",
"of",
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"federal",
"Bankruptcy",
"Code",
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"and",
"its",
"two",
"operating",
"subsidiaries",
",",
"Hal",
"Roach",
"Studios",
"and",
"Qintex",
"Productions",
".",
"Raymond",
"Corp.",
"lost",
"1",
"to",
"10",
"after",
"it",
"said",
"late",
"Thursday",
"that",
"it",
"will",
"take",
"a",
"$",
"4.4",
"million",
"charge",
"in",
"its",
"third",
"quarter",
"for",
"reserves",
"to",
"cover",
"potential",
"charges",
"in",
"connection",
"with",
"the",
"closing",
"and",
"sale",
"of",
"a",
"manufacturing",
"plant",
".",
"As",
"a",
"result",
",",
"the",
"company",
"has",
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"its",
"quarterly",
"dividend",
".",
"McCaw",
"Cellular",
"Communications",
"and",
"its",
"target",
",",
"LIN",
"Broadcasting",
",",
"were",
"active",
".",
"LIN",
"added",
"5/8",
"to",
"110",
"5/8",
"and",
"McCaw",
"lost",
"1/4",
"to",
"41",
".",
"McCaw",
"said",
"it",
"has",
"secured",
"commitments",
"from",
"three",
"banks",
"to",
"help",
"finance",
"its",
"$",
"125-a-share",
"bid",
"for",
"22",
"million",
"of",
"Lin",
"'s",
"shares",
".",
"McCaw",
"has",
"called",
"for",
"a",
"``",
"fair",
"auction",
"''",
"of",
"LIN",
",",
"which",
"earlier",
"entered",
"a",
"stock-swap",
"merger",
"pact",
"with",
"BellSouth",
".",
"Following",
"the",
"release",
"of",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"fourth-quarter",
"earnings",
",",
"Apple",
"Computer",
"dropped",
"3/4",
"to",
"48",
"on",
"volume",
"of",
"more",
"than",
"2.3",
"million",
"shares",
".",
"Apple",
"earned",
"$",
"161.1",
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",",
"or",
"$",
"1.24",
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"share",
",",
"in",
"the",
"quarter",
",",
"including",
"$",
"48",
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"sale",
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"stock",
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] |
[
"Y.J.",
"Park",
"and",
"her",
"family",
"scrimped",
"for",
"four",
"years",
"to",
"buy",
"a",
"tiny",
"apartment",
"here",
",",
"but",
"found",
"that",
"the",
"closer",
"they",
"got",
"to",
"saving",
"the",
"$",
"40,000",
"they",
"originally",
"needed",
",",
"the",
"more",
"the",
"price",
"rose",
".",
"By",
"this",
"month",
",",
"it",
"had",
"more",
"than",
"doubled",
".",
"Now",
"the",
"33-year-old",
"housewife",
",",
"whose",
"husband",
"earns",
"a",
"modest",
"salary",
"as",
"an",
"assistant",
"professor",
"of",
"economics",
",",
"is",
"saving",
"harder",
"than",
"ever",
".",
"``",
"I",
"am",
"determined",
"to",
"get",
"an",
"apartment",
"in",
"three",
"years",
",",
"''",
"she",
"says",
".",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"all",
"I",
"think",
"about",
"or",
"talk",
"about",
".",
"''",
"For",
"the",
"Parks",
"and",
"millions",
"of",
"other",
"young",
"Koreans",
",",
"the",
"long-cherished",
"dream",
"of",
"home",
"ownership",
"has",
"become",
"a",
"cruel",
"illusion",
".",
"For",
"the",
"government",
",",
"it",
"has",
"become",
"a",
"highly",
"volatile",
"political",
"issue",
".",
"Last",
"May",
",",
"a",
"government",
"panel",
"released",
"a",
"report",
"on",
"the",
"extent",
"and",
"causes",
"of",
"the",
"problem",
".",
"During",
"the",
"past",
"15",
"years",
",",
"the",
"report",
"showed",
",",
"housing",
"prices",
"increased",
"nearly",
"fivefold",
".",
"The",
"report",
"laid",
"the",
"blame",
"on",
"speculators",
",",
"who",
"it",
"said",
"had",
"pushed",
"land",
"prices",
"up",
"ninefold",
".",
"The",
"panel",
"found",
"that",
"since",
"1987",
",",
"real-estate",
"prices",
"rose",
"nearly",
"50",
"%",
"in",
"a",
"speculative",
"fever",
"fueled",
"by",
"economic",
"prosperity",
",",
"the",
"1988",
"Seoul",
"Olympics",
"and",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"pledge",
"to",
"rapidly",
"develop",
"Korea",
"'s",
"southwest",
".",
"The",
"result",
"is",
"that",
"those",
"rich",
"enough",
"to",
"own",
"any",
"real",
"estate",
"at",
"all",
"have",
"boosted",
"their",
"holdings",
"substantially",
".",
"For",
"those",
"with",
"no",
"holdings",
",",
"the",
"prospects",
"of",
"buying",
"a",
"home",
"are",
"ever",
"slimmer",
".",
"In",
"1987",
",",
"a",
"quarter",
"of",
"the",
"population",
"owned",
"91",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"71,895",
"square",
"kilometers",
"of",
"private",
"land",
",",
"the",
"report",
"said",
",",
"and",
"10",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"population",
"owned",
"65",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"land",
"devoted",
"to",
"housing",
".",
"Meanwhile",
",",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"Land",
"Bureau",
"reports",
"that",
"only",
"about",
"a",
"third",
"of",
"Korean",
"families",
"own",
"their",
"own",
"homes",
".",
"Rents",
"have",
"soared",
"along",
"with",
"house",
"prices",
".",
"Former",
"National",
"Assemblyman",
"Hong",
"Sa-Duk",
",",
"now",
"a",
"radio",
"commentator",
",",
"says",
"the",
"problem",
"is",
"intolerable",
"for",
"many",
"people",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'m",
"afraid",
"of",
"a",
"popular",
"revolt",
"if",
"this",
"situation",
"is",
"n't",
"corrected",
",",
"''",
"he",
"adds",
".",
"In",
"fact",
",",
"during",
"the",
"past",
"three",
"months",
"there",
"have",
"been",
"several",
"demonstrations",
"at",
"the",
"office",
"complex",
"where",
"the",
"Land",
"Bureau",
"is",
"housed",
",",
"and",
"at",
"the",
"National",
"Assembly",
",",
"demanding",
"the",
"government",
"put",
"a",
"stop",
"to",
"real-estate",
"speculation",
".",
"President",
"Roh",
"Tae",
"Woo",
"'s",
"administration",
"has",
"been",
"studying",
"the",
"real-estate",
"crisis",
"for",
"the",
"past",
"year",
"with",
"an",
"eye",
"to",
"partial",
"land",
"redistribution",
".",
"Last",
"week",
",",
"the",
"government",
"took",
"three",
"bills",
"to",
"the",
"National",
"Assembly",
".",
"The",
"proposed",
"legislation",
"is",
"aimed",
"at",
"rectifying",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"inequities",
"in",
"the",
"current",
"land-ownership",
"system",
".",
"Highlights",
"of",
"the",
"bills",
",",
"as",
"currently",
"framed",
",",
"are",
":",
"--",
"A",
"restriction",
"on",
"the",
"amount",
"of",
"real",
"estate",
"one",
"family",
"can",
"own",
",",
"to",
"660",
"square",
"meters",
"in",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"six",
"largest",
"cities",
",",
"but",
"more",
"in",
"smaller",
"cities",
"and",
"rural",
"areas",
".",
"The",
"government",
"will",
"penalize",
"offenders",
",",
"but",
"wo",
"n't",
"confiscate",
"property",
".",
"--",
"A",
"tax",
"of",
"between",
"3",
"%",
"and",
"6",
"%",
"on",
"property",
"holdings",
"that",
"exceed",
"the",
"governmentset",
"ceiling",
".",
"--",
"Taxes",
"of",
"between",
"15",
"%",
"and",
"50",
"%",
"a",
"year",
"on",
"``",
"excessive",
"''",
"profits",
"from",
"the",
"resale",
"of",
"property",
",",
"or",
"the",
"sale",
"of",
"idle",
"land",
"to",
"the",
"government",
".",
"The",
"government",
"defines",
"excessive",
"profits",
"as",
"those",
"above",
"the",
"average",
"realized",
"for",
"other",
"similar-sized",
"properties",
"in",
"an",
"area",
".",
"--",
"Grace",
"periods",
"ranging",
"from",
"two",
"to",
"five",
"years",
"before",
"the",
"full",
"scope",
"of",
"the",
"penalties",
"takes",
"effect",
".",
"The",
"administration",
"says",
"the",
"measures",
"would",
"stem",
"rampant",
"property",
"speculation",
",",
"free",
"more",
"land",
"for",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"ambitious",
"housing-construction",
"program",
",",
"designed",
"to",
"build",
"two",
"million",
"apartments",
"by",
"1992",
"--",
"and",
",",
"perhaps",
",",
"boost",
"the",
"popular",
"standing",
"of",
"President",
"Roh",
".",
"But",
"opposition",
"legislators",
"and",
"others",
"calling",
"for",
"help",
"for",
"South",
"Korea",
"'s",
"renters",
"say",
"the",
"proposed",
"changes",
"do",
"n't",
"go",
"far",
"enough",
"to",
"make",
"it",
"possible",
"for",
"ordinary",
"people",
"to",
"buy",
"a",
"home",
".",
"Some",
"want",
"lower",
"limits",
"on",
"house",
"sizes",
";",
"others",
"insist",
"on",
"progressively",
"higher",
"taxation",
"for",
"larger",
"homes",
"and",
"lots",
".",
"The",
"Citizens",
"Coalition",
"for",
"Economic",
"Justice",
",",
"a",
"public-interest",
"group",
"leading",
"the",
"charge",
"for",
"radical",
"reform",
",",
"wants",
"restrictions",
"on",
"landholdings",
",",
"high",
"taxation",
"of",
"capital",
"gains",
",",
"and",
"drastic",
"revamping",
"of",
"the",
"value-assessment",
"system",
"on",
"which",
"property",
"taxes",
"are",
"based",
".",
"But",
"others",
",",
"large",
"landowners",
",",
"real-estate",
"developers",
"and",
"business",
"leaders",
",",
"say",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"proposals",
"are",
"intolerable",
".",
"Led",
"by",
"the",
"Federation",
"of",
"Korean",
"Industries",
",",
"the",
"critics",
"are",
"lobbying",
"for",
"the",
"government",
"to",
"weaken",
"its",
"proposed",
"restrictions",
"and",
"penalties",
".",
"Government",
"officials",
"who",
"are",
"urging",
"real-estate",
"reforms",
"balk",
"at",
"the",
"arguments",
"of",
"business",
"leaders",
"and",
"chafe",
"at",
"their",
"pressure",
".",
"``",
"There",
"is",
"no",
"violation",
"of",
"the",
"capitalistic",
"principle",
"of",
"private",
"property",
"in",
"what",
"we",
"are",
"doing",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Lee",
"Kyu",
"Hwang",
",",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"government",
"'s",
"Land",
"Bureau",
",",
"which",
"drafted",
"the",
"bills",
".",
"But",
",",
"he",
"adds",
",",
"the",
"constitution",
"empowers",
"the",
"government",
"to",
"impose",
"some",
"controls",
",",
"to",
"mitigate",
"the",
"shortage",
"of",
"land",
".",
"The",
"land",
"available",
"for",
"housing",
"construction",
"stands",
"at",
"about",
"46.2",
"square",
"meters",
"a",
"person",
"--",
"18",
"%",
"lower",
"than",
"in",
"Taiwan",
"and",
"only",
"about",
"half",
"that",
"of",
"Japan",
".",
"Mr.",
"Lee",
"estimates",
"that",
"about",
"10,000",
"property",
"speculators",
"are",
"operating",
"in",
"South",
"Korea",
".",
"The",
"chief",
"culprits",
",",
"he",
"says",
",",
"are",
"big",
"companies",
"and",
"business",
"groups",
"that",
"buy",
"huge",
"amounts",
"of",
"land",
"``",
"not",
"for",
"their",
"corporate",
"use",
",",
"but",
"for",
"resale",
"at",
"huge",
"profit",
".",
"''",
"One",
"research",
"institute",
"calculated",
"that",
"as",
"much",
"as",
"67",
"%",
"of",
"corporate-owned",
"land",
"is",
"held",
"by",
"403",
"companies",
"--",
"and",
"that",
"as",
"little",
"as",
"1.5",
"%",
"of",
"that",
"is",
"used",
"for",
"business",
".",
"The",
"government",
"'s",
"Office",
"of",
"Bank",
"Supervision",
"and",
"Examination",
"told",
"the",
"National",
"Assembly",
"this",
"month",
"that",
"in",
"the",
"first",
"half",
"of",
"1989",
",",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"30",
"largest",
"business",
"groups",
"bought",
"real",
"estate",
"valued",
"at",
"$",
"1.5",
"billion",
".",
"The",
"Ministry",
"of",
"Finance",
",",
"as",
"a",
"result",
",",
"has",
"proposed",
"a",
"series",
"of",
"measures",
"that",
"would",
"restrict",
"business",
"investment",
"in",
"real",
"estate",
"even",
"more",
"tightly",
"than",
"restrictions",
"aimed",
"at",
"individuals",
".",
"Under",
"those",
"measures",
",",
"financial",
"institutions",
"would",
"be",
"restricted",
"from",
"owning",
"any",
"more",
"real",
"estate",
"than",
"they",
"need",
"for",
"their",
"business",
"operations",
".",
"Banks",
",",
"investment",
"and",
"credit",
"firms",
"would",
"be",
"permitted",
"to",
"own",
"land",
"equivalent",
"in",
"value",
"to",
"50",
"%",
"of",
"their",
"capital",
"--",
"currently",
"the",
"proportion",
"is",
"75",
"%",
".",
"The",
"maximum",
"allowable",
"property",
"holdings",
"for",
"insurance",
"companies",
"would",
"be",
"reduced",
"to",
"10",
"%",
"of",
"their",
"total",
"asset",
"value",
",",
"down",
"from",
"15",
"%",
"currently",
".",
"But",
"Mrs.",
"Park",
"acknowledges",
"that",
"even",
"if",
"the",
"policies",
"work",
"to",
"slow",
"or",
"stop",
"speculation",
",",
"apartment",
"prices",
"are",
"unlikely",
"to",
"go",
"down",
".",
"At",
"best",
",",
"she",
"realizes",
",",
"they",
"will",
"rise",
"more",
"slowly",
"--",
"more",
"slowly",
",",
"she",
"hopes",
",",
"than",
"her",
"family",
"'s",
"income",
"."
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[
"Sales",
"of",
"North",
"American-built",
"cars",
"and",
"trucks",
"plunged",
"20.5",
"%",
"in",
"mid-October",
"from",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
",",
"as",
"domestic",
"manufacturers",
"paid",
"the",
"price",
"for",
"heavy",
"incentives",
"earlier",
"this",
"year",
".",
"``",
"People",
"are",
"waiting",
"for",
"-LCB-",
"new",
"-RCB-",
"factory",
"giveaways",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Ben",
"Kaye",
",",
"sales",
"manager",
"of",
"Bob",
"Brest",
"Auto",
"World",
"in",
"Lynn",
",",
"Mass.",
",",
"whose",
"sales",
"are",
"slow",
".",
"This",
"trend",
"appears",
"to",
"be",
"especially",
"true",
"at",
"General",
"Motors",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"used",
"both",
"dealer",
"and",
"consumer",
"incentives",
"to",
"ignite",
"sales",
"in",
"August",
"and",
"September",
".",
"Since",
"then",
",",
"deliveries",
"have",
"slumped",
".",
"GM",
"'s",
"car",
"sales",
"dropped",
"24.8",
"%",
"in",
"mid-October",
"to",
"69,980",
",",
"while",
"truck",
"sales",
"fell",
"26",
"%",
"to",
"37,860",
".",
"GM",
"also",
"had",
"dismal",
"results",
"in",
"the",
"first",
"10",
"days",
"of",
"the",
"month",
",",
"while",
"other",
"auto",
"makers",
"reported",
"mixed",
"results",
".",
"All",
"of",
"the",
"Big",
"Three",
"suffered",
"in",
"the",
"just-ended",
"period",
",",
"however",
",",
"with",
"sales",
"of",
"all",
"domestically",
"made",
"cars",
",",
"including",
"those",
"built",
"at",
"Japanese-managed",
"plants",
",",
"falling",
"19",
"%",
"to",
"158,863",
"from",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
".",
"The",
"seasonal",
"adjusted",
"annual",
"selling",
"rate",
"was",
"six",
"million",
"vehicles",
",",
"a",
"small",
"improvement",
"from",
"the",
"5.8",
"million",
"rate",
"of",
"early",
"October",
",",
"but",
"a",
"big",
"drop",
"from",
"the",
"7.1",
"million",
"rate",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
".",
"Sales",
"of",
"domestically",
"made",
"trucks",
"also",
"continued",
"to",
"be",
"sluggish",
"in",
"mid-October",
",",
"dropping",
"22.8",
"%",
"to",
"94,543",
"from",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
".",
"The",
"Big",
"Three",
"auto",
"makers",
"already",
"have",
"slashed",
"fourth-quarter",
"production",
"plans",
"10.4",
"%",
"below",
"year-ago",
"levels",
",",
"but",
"that",
"may",
"not",
"be",
"enough",
"to",
"prevent",
"inventories",
"from",
"ballooning",
"if",
"sales",
"do",
"n't",
"improve",
".",
"Industry",
"analyst",
"John",
"H.",
"Qualls",
",",
"a",
"vice",
"president",
"with",
"Hill",
"&",
"Knowlton",
"in",
"St.",
"Louis",
",",
"forecasts",
"that",
"domestic",
"auto",
"makers",
"will",
"have",
"a",
"93-day",
"supply",
"of",
"cars",
"at",
"the",
"end",
"of",
"the",
"year",
",",
"even",
"if",
"car",
"sales",
"improve",
"to",
"a",
"6.5",
"million",
"vehicle",
"rate",
"for",
"the",
"quarter",
".",
"Ford",
"Motor",
"Co.",
"reported",
"a",
"21.2",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"sales",
"of",
"domestic-made",
"cars",
"to",
"46,995",
"and",
"a",
"24.2",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"domestic",
"trucks",
"to",
"31,143",
".",
"The",
"sales",
"are",
"being",
"dragged",
"down",
"by",
"a",
"glut",
"of",
"1989",
"vehicles",
",",
"said",
"Joel",
"Pitcoff",
",",
"a",
"Ford",
"analyst",
".",
"The",
"earlier",
"use",
"of",
"incentives",
"depleted",
"the",
"market",
"of",
"``",
"scavengers",
"''",
"for",
"bargain-basement",
"1989",
"cars",
",",
"he",
"said",
".",
"Town",
"&",
"Country",
"Ford",
"in",
"Charlotte",
",",
"N.C.",
",",
"still",
"needs",
"to",
"move",
"about",
"850",
"1989",
"cars",
"and",
"trucks",
".",
"Business",
"had",
"been",
"fairly",
"strong",
"until",
"Hurricane",
"Hugo",
"hit",
"the",
"area",
",",
"but",
"has",
"been",
"down",
"since",
".",
"Chrysler",
"Corp.",
"also",
"hit",
"the",
"rocks",
"in",
"mid-October",
".",
"The",
"No.",
"3",
"U.S.",
"auto",
"maker",
"had",
"a",
"23.7",
"%",
"plunge",
"in",
"car",
"sales",
"to",
"22,336",
"and",
"a",
"17.5",
"%",
"drop",
"in",
"truck",
"sales",
"to",
"22,925",
",",
"which",
"include",
"its",
"minivans",
"and",
"Jeeps",
".",
"Honda",
"Motor",
"Co.",
",",
"which",
"continues",
"to",
"have",
"short",
"supplies",
"of",
"domestically",
"made",
"Accords",
",",
"saw",
"its",
"sales",
"of",
"North",
"American-built",
"cars",
"fall",
"14.1",
"%",
"to",
"8,355",
".",
"But",
"sales",
"of",
"domestic",
"cars",
"and",
"trucks",
"at",
"Nissan",
"Motor",
"Corp.",
"rose",
"26.1",
"%",
"to",
"5,651",
".",
"A",
"Nissan",
"spokesman",
"attributed",
"the",
"increase",
"to",
"the",
"use",
"of",
"incentives",
"this",
"year",
"and",
"not",
"a",
"year",
"ago",
"and",
"to",
"higher",
"fleet",
"sales",
".",
"Toyota",
"Motor",
"Corp.",
",",
"which",
"opened",
"a",
"plant",
"in",
"Georgetown",
",",
"Ky.",
",",
"last",
"year",
",",
"saw",
"sales",
"triple",
"to",
"6,256",
"vehicles",
".",
"a",
"-",
"Totals",
"include",
"only",
"vehicle",
"sales",
"reported",
"in",
"the",
"period",
".",
"c",
"-",
"Domestic",
"car",
"d",
"-",
"Percent",
"change",
"greater",
"than",
"999",
"%",
".",
"x",
"-",
"There",
"were",
"9",
"selling",
"days",
"in",
"the",
"most",
"recent",
"period",
"and",
"9",
"a",
"year",
"earlier",
".",
"Percentage",
"differences",
"based",
"on",
"daily",
"sales",
"rate",
"rather",
"than",
"sales",
"volume",
"."
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[
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",",
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",",
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"``",
"Whatever",
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",",
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",",
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"``",
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",",
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"two",
"years",
"ago",
".",
"Though",
"he",
"also",
"long",
"benefited",
"from",
"the",
"system",
"built",
"by",
"La",
"Quina",
",",
"Mr.",
"Guzman",
"Cabrera",
"says",
"union",
"perks",
"had",
"simply",
"gotten",
"out",
"of",
"hand",
".",
"They",
"are",
"``",
"at",
"the",
"base",
"of",
"all",
"of",
"the",
"problems",
"of",
"corruption",
",",
"''",
"he",
"says",
".",
"Thus",
",",
"in",
"recent",
"contract",
"negotiations",
",",
"Mr.",
"Guzman",
"Cabrera",
"gave",
"up",
"the",
"union",
"'s",
"right",
"to",
"assign",
"40",
"%",
"of",
"all",
"of",
"Pemex",
"'s",
"outside",
"contracts",
"--",
"an",
"enormous",
"source",
"of",
"kickbacks",
".",
"The",
"union",
"also",
"ceded",
"the",
"2",
"%",
"commission",
"it",
"had",
"received",
"on",
"all",
"Pemex",
"maintenance",
"contracts",
".",
"(",
"The",
"union",
"will",
"keep",
"a",
"2",
"%",
"commission",
"on",
"construction",
"projects",
".",
")",
"The",
"new",
"contract",
"also",
"eliminates",
"the",
"$",
"15",
"monthly",
"coupon",
",",
"good",
"only",
"at",
"union-owned",
"grocery",
"stores",
",",
"that",
"was",
"part",
"of",
"the",
"salary",
"of",
"every",
"worker",
",",
"from",
"roughneck",
"to",
"chief",
"executive",
".",
"About",
"9,800",
"technical",
"workers",
",",
"notably",
"chemists",
"and",
"lawyers",
",",
"were",
"switched",
"to",
"non-union",
"status",
".",
"Also",
",",
"because",
"of",
"its",
"reduced",
"capital",
"budget",
",",
"Pemex",
"has",
"phased",
"out",
"about",
"50,000",
"transitory",
"construction",
"workers",
",",
"reducing",
"the",
"work",
"force",
"to",
"about",
"140,000",
",",
"the",
"union",
"leader",
"says",
".",
"Mr.",
"Guzman",
"Cabrera",
"says",
"the",
"union",
"'s",
"sacrifices",
"will",
"be",
"offset",
"by",
"a",
"wage",
"and",
"benefit",
"package",
"that",
"amounts",
"to",
"a",
"22",
"%",
"increase",
"in",
"compensation",
".",
"But",
"Pemex",
"managers",
"are",
"the",
"ones",
"most",
"thrilled",
"by",
"the",
"contract",
".",
"``",
"We",
"are",
"retaking",
"the",
"instruments",
"of",
"administration",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Raul",
"Robles",
",",
"a",
"Pemex",
"subdirector",
".",
"Pemex",
"officials",
"would",
"n't",
"say",
"how",
"much",
"money",
"the",
"new",
"contract",
"would",
"save",
"the",
"company",
",",
"but",
"one",
"previous",
"government",
"estimate",
"pegged",
"savings",
"at",
"around",
"$",
"500",
"million",
"a",
"year",
".",
"Pemex",
"'s",
"customers",
"also",
"are",
"pleased",
"with",
"the",
"company",
"'s",
"new",
"spirit",
".",
"Grupo",
"Desc",
",",
"a",
"big",
"conglomerate",
",",
"has",
"long",
"depended",
"on",
"Pemex",
"petrochemicals",
"to",
"produce",
"plastic",
"packing",
"material",
".",
"But",
"when",
"the",
"Pemex",
"plant",
"shut",
"down",
"for",
"an",
"annual",
"overhaul",
",",
"it",
"would",
"never",
"give",
"notice",
"to",
"its",
"customers",
".",
"``",
"The",
"capriciousness",
"would",
"completely",
"disrupt",
"our",
"operations",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Ernesto",
"Vega",
"Velasco",
",",
"Desc",
"'s",
"finance",
"director",
".",
"This",
"year",
",",
"for",
"the",
"first",
"time",
",",
"Desc",
"and",
"other",
"customers",
"were",
"consulted",
"well",
"in",
"advance",
"of",
"the",
"Pemex",
"plant",
"'s",
"shutdown",
"to",
"ensure",
"minimal",
"inconvenience",
".",
"Taming",
"the",
"union",
"complements",
"previous",
"moves",
"by",
"the",
"government",
"to",
"attract",
"private",
"investment",
"in",
"petrochemicals",
",",
"which",
"Mexico",
"has",
"been",
"forced",
"to",
"import",
"in",
"large",
"quantities",
"in",
"recent",
"years",
".",
"In",
"May",
",",
"the",
"government",
"unveiled",
"new",
"foreign",
"investment",
"regulations",
"that",
"create",
"special",
"trusts",
"allowing",
"foreigners",
",",
"long",
"limited",
"to",
"a",
"40",
"%",
"stake",
"in",
"secondary",
"petrochemical",
"companies",
",",
"to",
"own",
"up",
"to",
"100",
"%",
".",
"Later",
",",
"the",
"government",
"reclassified",
"several",
"basic",
"petrochemicals",
"as",
"secondary",
"products",
".",
"But",
"Pemex",
"'s",
"courtship",
"with",
"private",
"companies",
",",
"and",
"especially",
"foreign",
"ones",
",",
"is",
"controversial",
"in",
"a",
"country",
"where",
"oil",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"symbol",
"of",
"national",
"sovereignty",
"since",
"foreign",
"oil",
"holdings",
"were",
"nationalized",
"in",
"1938",
".",
"``",
"They",
"are",
"preparing",
"the",
"workers",
"for",
"what",
"'s",
"coming",
":",
"foreign",
"control",
",",
"''",
"wrote",
"Heberto",
"Castillo",
",",
"a",
"leftist",
"leader",
".",
"Mr.",
"Guzman",
"Cabrera",
"and",
"government",
"officials",
"insist",
"that",
"foreigners",
"will",
"be",
"limited",
"to",
"investing",
"in",
"secondary",
"petroleum",
"products",
".",
"But",
"the",
"new",
"union",
"leader",
"makes",
"no",
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"Pemex",
"'s",
"more",
"outward-looking",
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"integrate",
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"world",
"of",
"interdependence",
",",
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"later",
"we",
"'re",
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"to",
"become",
"victims",
"of",
"our",
"own",
"isolation",
",",
"''",
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"better",
"paying",
"job",
"after",
"pocketing",
"a",
"$",
"500",
"bribe",
".",
"Some",
"of",
"the",
"allegations",
"are",
"simply",
"bizarre",
".",
"Two",
"former",
"secretaries",
"told",
"the",
"grand",
"jury",
"they",
"were",
"summoned",
"to",
"the",
"judge",
"'s",
"chambers",
"on",
"separate",
"occasions",
"to",
"take",
"dictation",
",",
"only",
"to",
"find",
"the",
"judge",
"in",
"his",
"bikini",
"underwear",
".",
"One",
"secretary",
"testified",
"that",
"the",
"judge",
"once",
"called",
"her",
"to",
"his",
"office",
"while",
"wearing",
"nothing",
"at",
"all",
".",
"The",
"judge",
",",
"suspended",
"from",
"his",
"bench",
"pending",
"his",
"trial",
",",
"which",
"began",
"this",
"week",
",",
"vehemently",
"denies",
"all",
"the",
"allegations",
"against",
"him",
",",
"calling",
"them",
"``",
"ludicrous",
"''",
"and",
"``",
"imaginative",
",",
"political",
"demagoguery",
".",
"''",
"He",
"blames",
"the",
"indictment",
"on",
"local",
"political",
"feuding",
",",
"unhappiness",
"with",
"his",
"aggressive",
"efforts",
"to",
"clear",
"the",
"courthouse",
"'s",
"docket",
"and",
"a",
"vendetta",
"by",
"state",
"investigators",
"and",
"prosecutors",
"angered",
"by",
"some",
"of",
"his",
"rulings",
"against",
"them",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"know",
"whose",
"toes",
"I",
"'ve",
"stepped",
"on",
",",
"''",
"says",
"the",
"judge",
".",
"``",
"I",
"'ll",
"find",
"out",
",",
"eventually",
",",
"who",
"pushed",
"the",
"state",
"police",
"buttons",
"into",
"action",
".",
"''",
"Even",
"if",
"only",
"some",
"of",
"the",
"allegations",
"stand",
"up",
",",
"however",
",",
"they",
"provide",
"ample",
"testimony",
"to",
"the",
"awesome",
"power",
"of",
"judges",
"in",
"rural",
"communities",
".",
"That",
"power",
"can",
"sometimes",
"be",
"abused",
",",
"particularly",
"since",
"jurists",
"in",
"smaller",
"jurisdictions",
"operate",
"without",
"many",
"of",
"the",
"restraints",
"that",
"serve",
"as",
"corrective",
"measures",
"in",
"urban",
"areas",
".",
"Lawyers",
"and",
"their",
"clients",
"who",
"frequently",
"bring",
"business",
"to",
"a",
"country",
"courthouse",
"can",
"expect",
"to",
"appear",
"before",
"the",
"same",
"judge",
"year",
"after",
"year",
".",
"Fear",
"of",
"alienating",
"that",
"judge",
"is",
"pervasive",
",",
"says",
"Maurice",
"Geiger",
",",
"founder",
"and",
"director",
"of",
"the",
"Rural",
"Justice",
"Center",
"in",
"Montpelier",
",",
"Vt.",
",",
"a",
"public",
"interest",
"group",
"that",
"researches",
"rural",
"justice",
"issues",
".",
"As",
"a",
"result",
",",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Geiger",
",",
"lawyers",
"think",
"twice",
"before",
"appealing",
"a",
"judge",
"'s",
"ruling",
",",
"are",
"reluctant",
"to",
"mount",
",",
"or",
"even",
"support",
",",
"challenges",
"against",
"him",
"for",
"re-election",
"and",
"are",
"usually",
"loath",
"to",
"file",
"complaints",
"that",
"might",
"impugn",
"a",
"judge",
"'s",
"integrity",
".",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
",",
"a",
"stern",
"and",
"forbidding-looking",
"man",
",",
"has",
"been",
"a",
"fixture",
"in",
"the",
"local",
"legal",
"community",
"for",
"more",
"than",
"two",
"decades",
".",
"The",
"son",
"of",
"an",
"immigrant",
"stonemason",
"of",
"Slovenian",
"descent",
",",
"he",
"was",
"raised",
"in",
"a",
"small",
"borough",
"outside",
"Ebensburg",
",",
"the",
"Cambria",
"County",
"seat",
",",
"and",
"put",
"himself",
"through",
"the",
"University",
"of",
"Pittsburgh",
"Law",
"School",
".",
"He",
"graduated",
"near",
"the",
"top",
"of",
"his",
"class",
",",
"serving",
"on",
"the",
"school",
"law",
"review",
"with",
"Richard",
"Thornburgh",
",",
"who",
"went",
"on",
"to",
"become",
"governor",
"of",
"Pennsylvania",
"and",
",",
"now",
",",
"U.S.",
"Attorney",
"General",
".",
"It",
"was",
"also",
"in",
"law",
"school",
"that",
"Mr.",
"O'Kicki",
"and",
"his",
"first",
"wife",
"had",
"the",
"first",
"of",
"seven",
"daughters",
".",
"He",
"divorced",
"his",
"first",
"wife",
"three",
"years",
"ago",
"and",
"married",
"the",
"daughter",
"of",
"his",
"court",
"clerk",
".",
"Last",
"year",
",",
"Pennsylvania",
"Supreme",
"Court",
"Justice",
"John",
"P.",
"Flaherty",
"called",
"Mr.",
"O'Kicki",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"finest",
"judges",
"``",
"not",
"only",
"in",
"Pennsylvania",
"but",
"in",
"the",
"United",
"States",
".",
"''",
"Clearly",
",",
"the",
"judge",
"has",
"had",
"his",
"share",
"of",
"accomplishments",
".",
"After",
"practicing",
"law",
"locally",
",",
"he",
"was",
"elected",
"to",
"his",
"first",
"10-year",
"term",
"as",
"judge",
"in",
"1971",
";",
"in",
"1981",
",",
"he",
"was",
"effectively",
"re-elected",
".",
"Six",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
"was",
"voted",
"president",
"of",
"the",
"Pennsylvania",
"Conference",
"of",
"State",
"Trial",
"Judges",
"by",
"the",
"state",
"'s",
"400",
"judges",
".",
"He",
"has",
"been",
"considered",
"several",
"times",
"for",
"appointments",
"to",
"federal",
"district",
"and",
"appellate",
"court",
"vacancies",
"in",
"Pennsylvania",
".",
"And",
"when",
"he",
"ran",
"unsuccessfully",
"for",
"a",
"state",
"appellate",
"court",
"seat",
"in",
"1983",
",",
"the",
"Pennsylvania",
"Bar",
"Association",
"rated",
"him",
"``",
"one",
"of",
"the",
"best",
"available",
",",
"''",
"after",
"interviewing",
"local",
"lawyers",
".",
"``",
"He",
"probably",
"was",
"the",
"smartest",
"guy",
"who",
"ever",
"sat",
"on",
"our",
"bench",
",",
"''",
"says",
"a",
"former",
"president",
"of",
"Cambria",
"County",
"'s",
"150-member",
"bar",
"association",
",",
"who",
",",
"like",
"most",
"lawyers",
"in",
"Cambria",
"County",
",",
"refuses",
"to",
"talk",
"about",
"the",
"judge",
"publicly",
".",
"``",
"He",
"'s",
"sharp",
"as",
"a",
"tack",
".",
"He",
"could",
"grasp",
"an",
"issue",
"with",
"the",
"blink",
"of",
"an",
"eye",
".",
"''",
"For",
"more",
"than",
"a",
"decade",
",",
"virtually",
"no",
"one",
"complained",
"about",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
".",
"``",
"What",
"about",
"those",
"institutions",
"that",
"are",
"supposed",
"to",
"be",
"the",
"bedrock",
"of",
"society",
",",
"the",
"banks",
"and",
"the",
"bar",
"association",
"...",
"?",
"''",
"wrote",
"a",
"columnist",
"for",
"the",
"Tribune-Democrat",
",",
"a",
"newspaper",
"in",
"nearby",
"Johnstown",
",",
"shortly",
"after",
"the",
"scandal",
"became",
"public",
".",
"``",
"If",
"only",
"a",
"banker",
"or",
"a",
"lawyer",
"had",
"spoken",
"out",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"the",
"judicial",
"process",
"would",
"n't",
"be",
"under",
"the",
"taint",
"it",
"is",
"today",
".",
"''",
"Officials",
"with",
"the",
"Pennsylvania",
"Judicial",
"Inquiry",
"and",
"Review",
"Board",
",",
"the",
"arm",
"of",
"the",
"state",
"that",
"investigates",
"judicial",
"misconduct",
",",
"counter",
"that",
"they",
"had",
"no",
"inkling",
"of",
"anything",
"amiss",
"in",
"Ebensburg",
".",
"``",
"Nobody",
"told",
"us",
";",
"nobody",
"called",
"us",
",",
"''",
"says",
"an",
"official",
"close",
"to",
"the",
"case",
"who",
"asked",
"not",
"to",
"be",
"named",
".",
"``",
"Nobody",
"had",
"the",
"guts",
"to",
"complain",
".",
"''",
"Certainly",
"not",
"the",
"lawyers",
".",
"Johnstown",
"attorney",
"Richard",
"J.",
"Green",
"Jr.",
"shelled",
"out",
"$",
"500",
"in",
"loans",
"to",
"the",
"judge",
"over",
"five",
"years",
",",
"he",
"said",
"in",
"testimony",
"to",
"the",
"grand",
"jury",
".",
"``",
"The",
"judge",
"never",
"made",
"a",
"pretense",
"of",
"repaying",
"the",
"money",
",",
"''",
"said",
"Mr.",
"Green",
".",
"Eventually",
",",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"testified",
",",
"he",
"began",
"ducking",
"out",
"of",
"his",
"office",
"rather",
"than",
"face",
"the",
"judge",
"when",
"he",
"visited",
".",
"When",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"won",
"a",
"$",
"240,000",
"verdict",
"in",
"a",
"land",
"condemnation",
"case",
"against",
"the",
"state",
"in",
"June",
"1983",
",",
"he",
"says",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
"unexpectedly",
"awarded",
"him",
"an",
"additional",
"$",
"100,000",
".",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"thought",
"little",
"of",
"it",
",",
"he",
"told",
"the",
"grand",
"jury",
",",
"until",
"the",
"judge",
"walked",
"up",
"to",
"him",
"after",
"the",
"courtroom",
"had",
"cleared",
"and",
"suggested",
"a",
"kickback",
".",
"``",
"Do",
"n't",
"you",
"think",
"I",
"ought",
"to",
"get",
"a",
"commission",
"...",
"or",
"part",
"of",
"your",
"fee",
"in",
"this",
"case",
"?",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"said",
"the",
"judge",
"asked",
"him",
".",
"Appalled",
",",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"never",
"paid",
"the",
"money",
",",
"he",
"testified",
".",
"But",
"he",
"did",
"n't",
"complain",
"to",
"the",
"state",
"'s",
"Judicial",
"Inquiry",
"and",
"Review",
"Board",
",",
"either",
",",
"saying",
"later",
"that",
"he",
"feared",
"retribution",
".",
"Mr.",
"O'Kicki",
"said",
"he",
"will",
"respond",
"to",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"'s",
"allegation",
"at",
"his",
"trial",
".",
"Like",
"most",
"of",
"Cambria",
"County",
"'s",
"lawyers",
"and",
"residents",
"who",
"had",
"dealings",
"with",
"the",
"judge",
",",
"Mr.",
"Green",
"declined",
"to",
"be",
"interviewed",
"for",
"this",
"article",
".",
"And",
"no",
"one",
"with",
"a",
"complaint",
"about",
"the",
"judge",
"would",
"allow",
"his",
"name",
"to",
"be",
"printed",
".",
"``",
"I",
"do",
"n't",
"have",
"anything",
"much",
"to",
"say",
",",
"and",
"I",
"think",
"that",
"'s",
"what",
"you",
"'re",
"going",
"to",
"find",
"from",
"everyone",
"else",
"you",
"talk",
"to",
"up",
"here",
",",
"''",
"says",
"local",
"attorney",
"Edward",
"F.",
"Peduzzi",
".",
"Says",
"another",
"lawyer",
":",
"``",
"The",
"practice",
"of",
"law",
"is",
"a",
"matter",
"of",
"biting",
"one",
"'s",
"lip",
"when",
"you",
"live",
"in",
"a",
"small",
"community",
".",
"One",
"had",
"best",
"not",
"dance",
"on",
"top",
"of",
"a",
"coffin",
"until",
"the",
"lid",
"is",
"sealed",
"tightly",
"shut",
".",
"''",
"The",
"judge",
"was",
"considered",
"imperious",
",",
"abrasive",
"and",
"ambitious",
",",
"those",
"who",
"practiced",
"before",
"him",
"say",
".",
"He",
"sipped",
"tea",
"sweetened",
"with",
"honey",
"from",
"his",
"high-backed",
"leather",
"chair",
"at",
"his",
"bench",
",",
"while",
"scribbling",
"notes",
"ordering",
"spectators",
"to",
"stop",
"whispering",
"or",
"to",
"take",
"off",
"their",
"hats",
"in",
"his",
"courtroom",
".",
"Four",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"he",
"jailed",
"all",
"nine",
"members",
"of",
"the",
"Cambria",
"County",
"School",
"Board",
"for",
"several",
"hours",
"after",
"they",
"defied",
"his",
"order",
"to",
"extend",
"the",
"school",
"year",
"by",
"several",
"weeks",
"to",
"make",
"up",
"for",
"time",
"lost",
"during",
"a",
"teachers",
"'",
"strike",
".",
"Visitors",
"in",
"his",
"chambers",
"say",
"he",
"could",
"cite",
"precisely",
"the",
"years",
",",
"months",
",",
"weeks",
"and",
"days",
"remaining",
"until",
"mandatory",
"retirement",
"would",
"force",
"aside",
"the",
"presiding",
"president",
"judge",
",",
"giving",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
"the",
"seniority",
"required",
"to",
"take",
"over",
"as",
"the",
"county",
"'s",
"top",
"court",
"administrator",
".",
"The",
"judge",
",",
"they",
"say",
",",
"was",
"fiercely",
"proud",
"of",
"his",
"abilities",
"and",
"accomplishments",
".",
"``",
"My",
"name",
"is",
"judge",
",",
"''",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
"told",
"a",
"car",
"salesman",
"in",
"Ebensburg",
"when",
"he",
"bought",
"a",
"new",
"red",
"Pontiac",
"Sunbird",
"in",
"October",
"1984",
",",
"according",
"to",
"the",
"grand-jury",
"report",
".",
"The",
"dealership",
"dutifully",
"recorded",
"the",
"sale",
"under",
"the",
"name",
"``",
"Judge",
"O'Kicki",
".",
"''",
"Yet",
",",
"despite",
"the",
"judge",
"'s",
"imperial",
"bearing",
",",
"no",
"one",
"ever",
"had",
"reason",
"to",
"suspect",
"possible",
"wrongdoing",
",",
"says",
"John",
"Bognato",
",",
"president",
"of",
"Cambria",
"County",
"'s",
"150-member",
"bar",
"association",
".",
"``",
"The",
"arrogance",
"of",
"a",
"judge",
",",
"his",
"demeanor",
",",
"the",
"way",
"he",
"handles",
"people",
"are",
"not",
"a",
"basis",
"for",
"filing",
"a",
"complaint",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Bognato",
".",
"``",
"Until",
"this",
"came",
"up",
"and",
"hit",
"the",
"press",
",",
"there",
"was",
"never",
"any",
"indication",
"that",
"he",
"was",
"doing",
"anything",
"wrong",
".",
"''",
"State",
"investigators",
"dispute",
"that",
"view",
"now",
",",
"particularly",
"in",
"light",
"of",
"the",
"judge",
"'s",
"various",
"business",
"dealings",
"in",
"Cambria",
"County",
".",
"The",
"judge",
"came",
"under",
"scrutiny",
"in",
"late",
"1987",
",",
"after",
"the",
"state",
"attorney",
"general",
"'s",
"office",
"launched",
"an",
"unrelated",
"investigation",
"into",
"corruption",
"in",
"Cambria",
"County",
".",
"The",
"inquiry",
"soon",
"focused",
"on",
"the",
"judge",
".",
"Even",
"his",
"routine",
"business",
"transactions",
"caused",
"trouble",
",",
"according",
"to",
"the",
"grand",
"jury",
"report",
".",
"When",
"the",
"judge",
"bought",
"his",
"new",
"Sunbird",
"from",
"James",
"E.",
"Black",
"Pontiac-Cadillac",
"in",
"Ebensburg",
"five",
"years",
"ago",
",",
"the",
"dealership",
"had",
"``",
"certain",
"apprehensions",
"''",
"about",
"the",
"judge",
"'s",
"reputation",
",",
"according",
"to",
"the",
"grand-jury",
"report",
".",
"The",
"dealership",
"took",
"the",
"extra",
"step",
"of",
"having",
"all",
"the",
"paper",
"work",
"for",
"the",
"transaction",
"pre-approved",
"by",
"Ebensburg",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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",",
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"Digital",
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",",
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"A",
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"first",
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"next",
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"there",
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"translations",
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"I",
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",",
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".",
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",",
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"the",
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"step",
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"telling",
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"in",
"a",
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"call",
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"Europe",
"were",
"up",
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"``",
"double",
"digits",
"''",
"in",
"foreign-currency",
"terms",
".",
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"%",
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"%",
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",",
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",",
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"Stevens",
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"Dean",
"Witter",
"Reynolds",
".",
"``",
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",",
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"Marc",
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",",
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",",
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"6.80",
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"8",
".",
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",",
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",",
"DEC",
"``",
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"backlog",
"''",
"and",
"had",
"flat",
"world-wide",
"orders",
"overall",
".",
"``",
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"bottom",
"line",
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"that",
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",",
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"''",
"than",
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"of",
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"investment",
"colleagues",
"expect",
".",
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"said",
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",",
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"by",
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".",
"For",
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"DEC",
"in",
"the",
"next",
"few",
"quarters",
".",
"John",
"R.",
"Wilke",
"contributed",
"to",
"this",
"article",
"."
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[
"Philip",
"Morris",
"Cos.",
",",
"whose",
"Benson",
"&",
"Hedges",
"cigarette",
"brand",
"has",
"been",
"losing",
"market",
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",",
"has",
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"work",
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",",
"which",
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"Wells",
"Rich",
"Greene",
"Inc.",
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".",
"Executives",
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"Philip",
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"the",
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"food",
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"Bates",
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"Inc.",
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",",
"and",
"possibly",
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"work",
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"account",
".",
"Several",
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",",
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"Morris",
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".",
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"comment",
".",
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"the",
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"does",
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"comment",
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"``",
"idle",
"speculation",
".",
"''",
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"a",
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"was",
"TBWA",
"Advertising",
",",
"but",
"the",
"company",
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".",
"The",
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"account",
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"Wells",
"Rich",
".",
"Benson",
"&",
"Hedges",
"has",
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"one",
"of",
"its",
"most",
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"campaigns",
",",
"as",
"well",
"as",
"one",
"of",
"its",
"largest",
"clients",
".",
"The",
"account",
"billed",
"almost",
"$",
"60",
"million",
"last",
"year",
",",
"according",
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"Advertisers",
".",
"But",
"Philip",
"Morris",
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"on",
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",",
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",",
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"40",
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".",
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"Morris",
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"'s",
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"share",
".",
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"Maxwell",
",",
"an",
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"First",
"Securities",
",",
"Richmond",
",",
"Va.",
",",
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"&",
"Hedges",
"has",
"slipped",
"from",
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"of",
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"market",
"in",
"1985",
"to",
"just",
"4.1",
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"after",
"the",
"second",
"quarter",
"of",
"this",
"year",
".",
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",",
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".",
"The",
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"by",
"Wells",
"Rich",
",",
"including",
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"a",
"young",
"man",
"clad",
"only",
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"bottoms",
"interrupting",
"a",
"festive",
"brunch",
".",
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"generated",
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"much",
"publicity",
"that",
"a",
"trade",
"magazine",
"launched",
"a",
"contest",
"for",
"its",
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"guess",
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"what",
"he",
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".",
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"Hedges",
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",",
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",",
"an",
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"door",
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".",
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"--",
"a",
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".",
"Philip",
"Morris",
",",
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"&",
"Hedges",
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",",
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"1986",
".",
"Wells",
"Rich",
"Greene",
",",
"however",
",",
"in",
"an",
"effort",
"directed",
"by",
"Mary",
"Wells",
"Lawrence",
",",
"emerged",
"the",
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"the",
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"the",
"business",
".",
"Kenneth",
"Olshan",
",",
"Wells",
"Rich",
"'s",
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",",
"did",
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"calls",
"seeking",
"comment",
".",
"While",
"Wells",
"Rich",
"recently",
"picked",
"up",
"Hertz",
"Corp.",
"'s",
"$",
"25",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"30",
"million",
"account",
",",
"it",
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"a",
"number",
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"big",
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"this",
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",",
"including",
"the",
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"20",
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"to",
"$",
"25",
"million",
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"Canada",
"Dry",
"and",
"Sunkist",
"accounts",
",",
"the",
"$",
"18",
"million",
"Procter",
"&",
"Gamble",
"Co",
".",
"Sure",
"deodorant",
"account",
"and",
"the",
"$",
"10",
"million",
"Polo/Ralph",
"Lauren",
"business",
".",
"Its",
"victories",
"include",
"more",
"than",
"$",
"30",
"million",
"in",
"Sheraton",
"Corp.",
"business",
"and",
"an",
"assignment",
"from",
"Dun",
"&",
"Bradstreet",
"worth",
"$",
"5",
"million",
"to",
"$",
"10",
"million",
"."
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] |
[
"Billions",
"of",
"investors",
"'",
"dollars",
"are",
"pouring",
"out",
"of",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"junk-bond",
"mutual",
"funds",
",",
"undermining",
"a",
"pillar",
"of",
"support",
"in",
"the",
"already",
"reeling",
"junk",
"market",
".",
"Last",
"week",
"alone",
",",
"an",
"eye-popping",
"$",
"1.6",
"billion",
"flowed",
"out",
"of",
"the",
"junk",
"funds",
",",
"or",
"nearly",
"5",
"%",
"of",
"their",
"total",
"assets",
",",
"according",
"to",
"estimates",
"by",
"Dalbar",
"Financial",
"Services",
"Inc.",
",",
"a",
"Boston",
"research",
"firm",
".",
"In",
"the",
"past",
"two",
"months",
"the",
"nation",
"'s",
"88",
"junk",
"funds",
"have",
"lost",
"a",
"total",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"6",
"billion",
"--",
"more",
"than",
"15",
"%",
"of",
"assets",
"--",
"through",
"sales",
"or",
"transfers",
"of",
"junk-fund",
"shares",
",",
"Dalbar",
"says",
".",
"It",
"made",
"the",
"estimates",
"based",
"on",
"data",
"collected",
"from",
"more",
"than",
"a",
"dozen",
"big",
"junk",
"funds",
".",
"Interviews",
"with",
"three",
"major",
"fund",
"groups",
"--",
"Fidelity",
"Investments",
",",
"Vanguard",
"Group",
"Inc.",
"and",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"Associates",
"Inc.",
"--",
"confirm",
"the",
"trend",
".",
"Their",
"junk",
"funds",
"combined",
"have",
"had",
"net",
"outflows",
"totaling",
"nearly",
"$",
"500",
"million",
",",
"or",
"about",
"13",
"%",
"of",
"their",
"junk",
"fund",
"assets",
",",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"two",
"months",
".",
"Some",
"fund",
"managers",
"say",
"negative",
"publicity",
"has",
"exacerbated",
"investors",
"'",
"concern",
"about",
"recent",
"declines",
"in",
"junk-bond",
"prices",
".",
"``",
"People",
"have",
"been",
"seeing",
"headline",
"after",
"headline",
"after",
"headline",
"and",
"saying",
":",
"`",
"I",
"ca",
"n't",
"take",
"it",
"anymore",
"--",
"I",
"'m",
"getting",
"out",
",",
"'",
"''",
"says",
"Kurt",
"Brouwer",
"of",
"Brouwer",
"&",
"Janachowski",
",",
"a",
"San",
"Francisco",
"investment",
"adviser",
".",
"The",
"withdrawals",
"could",
"spell",
"trouble",
"for",
"the",
"$",
"200",
"billion",
"junk",
"market",
".",
"If",
"the",
"heavy",
"outflows",
"continue",
",",
"fund",
"managers",
"will",
"face",
"increasing",
"pressure",
"to",
"sell",
"off",
"some",
"of",
"their",
"junk",
"to",
"pay",
"departing",
"investors",
"in",
"the",
"weeks",
"ahead",
".",
"Such",
"selling",
"could",
"erode",
"prices",
"of",
"high-yield",
"junk",
"bonds",
",",
"already",
"weakened",
"by",
"a",
"rash",
"of",
"corporate",
"credit",
"problems",
".",
"Mutual",
"fund",
"groups",
"have",
"n't",
"lost",
"control",
"of",
"much",
"of",
"the",
"outgoing",
"money",
",",
"says",
"Louis",
"Harvey",
",",
"Dalbar",
"'s",
"president",
".",
"Mutual",
"fund",
"officials",
"say",
"that",
"investors",
"have",
"transferred",
"most",
"of",
"it",
"into",
"their",
"money",
"market",
"accounts",
",",
"and",
"to",
"a",
"lesser",
"extent",
",",
"government-bond",
"funds",
".",
"So",
"the",
"impact",
"on",
"the",
"$",
"950",
"billion",
"mutual",
"fund",
"industry",
"as",
"a",
"whole",
"probably",
"will",
"be",
"slight",
".",
"But",
"tremors",
"are",
"likely",
"in",
"the",
"junk-bond",
"market",
",",
"which",
"has",
"helped",
"to",
"finance",
"the",
"takeover",
"boom",
"of",
"recent",
"years",
".",
"Mutual",
"funds",
"are",
"the",
"among",
"the",
"largest",
"holders",
"of",
"junk",
",",
"accounting",
"for",
"more",
"than",
"a",
"quarter",
"of",
"the",
"entire",
"high-yield",
",",
"high-risk",
"market",
".",
"The",
"88",
"mutual",
"funds",
"investing",
"solely",
"in",
"junk",
"bonds",
"hold",
"assets",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"32",
"billion",
".",
"Other",
"funds",
"hold",
"a",
"smattering",
"of",
"junk",
"bonds",
",",
"too",
".",
"The",
"$",
"1.5",
"billion",
"Fidelity",
"High",
"Income",
"Fund",
"has",
"had",
"a",
"net",
"outflow",
"of",
"about",
"$",
"150",
"million",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"two",
"months",
".",
"About",
"$",
"60",
"million",
"streamed",
"out",
"last",
"week",
"alone",
",",
"double",
"the",
"level",
"of",
"the",
"week",
"following",
"last",
"month",
"'s",
"Campeau",
"Corp.",
"credit",
"squeeze",
".",
"About",
"98",
"%",
"of",
"the",
"outflow",
"was",
"transferred",
"to",
"other",
"Fidelity",
"funds",
",",
"says",
"Neal",
"Litvack",
",",
"a",
"Fidelity",
"vice",
"president",
",",
"marketing",
",",
"with",
"most",
"going",
"into",
"money",
"market",
"funds",
".",
"``",
"You",
"get",
"a",
"news",
"item",
",",
"it",
"hits",
",",
"you",
"have",
"strong",
"redemptions",
"that",
"day",
"and",
"for",
"two",
"days",
"following",
"--",
"then",
"go",
"back",
"to",
"normal",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Mr.",
"Litvack",
".",
"The",
"fund",
",",
"with",
"a",
"cash",
"cushion",
"of",
"more",
"than",
"10",
"%",
",",
"has",
"``",
"met",
"all",
"the",
"redemptions",
"without",
"having",
"to",
"sell",
"one",
"thing",
",",
"''",
"Mr.",
"Litvack",
"says",
".",
"He",
"adds",
":",
"``",
"Our",
"fund",
"has",
"had",
"-LCB-",
"positive",
"-RCB-",
"net",
"sales",
"every",
"month",
"for",
"the",
"last",
"three",
"years",
"--",
"until",
"this",
"month",
".",
"''",
"Vanguard",
"'s",
"$",
"1",
"billion",
"High",
"Yield",
"Bond",
"Portfolio",
"has",
"seen",
"$",
"161",
"million",
"flow",
"out",
"since",
"early",
"September",
";",
"$",
"14",
"million",
"of",
"that",
"seeped",
"out",
"Friday",
"Oct.",
"13",
"alone",
".",
"Still",
",",
"two-thirds",
"of",
"the",
"outflow",
"has",
"been",
"steered",
"into",
"other",
"Vanguard",
"portfolios",
",",
"says",
"Brian",
"Mattes",
",",
"a",
"vice",
"president",
".",
"The",
"fund",
"now",
"holds",
"a",
"cash",
"position",
"of",
"about",
"15",
"%",
".",
"At",
"the",
"$",
"932",
"million",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"High",
"Yield",
"Fund",
",",
"investors",
"yanked",
"out",
"about",
"$",
"182",
"million",
"in",
"the",
"past",
"two",
"months",
".",
"Those",
"withdrawals",
",",
"most",
"of",
"which",
"were",
"transferred",
"to",
"other",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"funds",
",",
"followed",
"little",
"change",
"in",
"the",
"fund",
"'s",
"sales",
"picture",
"this",
"year",
"through",
"August",
".",
"``",
"The",
"last",
"two",
"months",
"have",
"been",
"the",
"whole",
"ball",
"game",
",",
"''",
"says",
"Steven",
"Norwitz",
",",
"a",
"vice",
"president",
".",
"Junk-fund",
"holders",
"have",
"barely",
"broken",
"even",
"this",
"year",
",",
"as",
"fat",
"interest",
"payments",
"barely",
"managed",
"to",
"offset",
"declining",
"prices",
".",
"Through",
"Oct.",
"19",
",",
"high-yield",
"funds",
"had",
"an",
"average",
"0.85",
"%",
"total",
"return",
"(",
"the",
"price",
"change",
"plus",
"dividends",
"on",
"fund",
"shares",
")",
",",
"according",
"to",
"Lipper",
"Analytical",
"Services",
"Inc",
".",
"That",
"'s",
"even",
"less",
"than",
"the",
"4.35",
"%",
"total",
"return",
"of",
"the",
"Merrill",
"Lynch",
"High-Yield",
"Index",
".",
"Fidelity",
"'s",
"junk",
"fund",
"has",
"fallen",
"2.08",
"%",
"this",
"year",
"through",
"Oct.",
"19",
",",
"Lipper",
"says",
";",
"the",
"Vanguard",
"fund",
"rose",
"1.84",
"%",
";",
"and",
"the",
"T.",
"Rowe",
"Price",
"fund",
"edged",
"up",
"0.66",
"%",
".",
"People",
"who",
"remain",
"in",
"junk",
"funds",
"now",
"could",
"get",
"hit",
"again",
",",
"some",
"analysts",
"and",
"fund",
"specialists",
"say",
".",
"Many",
"funds",
"in",
"recent",
"weeks",
"and",
"months",
"have",
"been",
"selling",
"their",
"highest-quality",
"junk",
"issues",
",",
"such",
"as",
"RJR",
"Nabisco",
",",
"to",
"raise",
"cash",
"to",
"meet",
"expected",
"redemptions",
".",
"Funds",
"might",
"be",
"forced",
"to",
"accept",
"lower",
"prices",
"if",
"they",
"expand",
"their",
"selling",
"to",
"the",
"securities",
"of",
"less-creditworthy",
"borrowers",
".",
"And",
"then",
",",
"asset",
"values",
"of",
"the",
"funds",
"could",
"plunge",
"more",
"than",
"they",
"have",
"so",
"far",
".",
"Says",
"Michael",
"Hirsch",
",",
"chief",
"investment",
"officer",
"of",
"Republic",
"National",
"Bank",
"and",
"manager",
"of",
"the",
"FundTrust",
"Group",
"in",
"New",
"York",
":",
"``",
"It",
"'s",
"a",
"time",
"bomb",
"just",
"waiting",
"to",
"go",
"off",
"."
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