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In the building sector, there are three major reasons for using thermal energy storage: z Improving system efficiency by avoiding partial load operation or operation at other sub-optimal times or by taking advantage of waste energy (e.g. heat released from chillers).
Thermal energy storage can be categorised based on the underlying physical principles of the storage technique (Figure 6).
The installation of larger-scale ice and chilled water storage is growing rapidly in some countries as utilities seek to reduce peak loads and customers seek to reduce peak load charges.
Integrated ice storage typically allows systems to reduce chiller capacity by 50%, with a similar reduction in the electrical peak demand for chilled water production.
Thermal energy storage will also be the key to solar systems providing a larger share of household space and water heating and cooling, when low-cost compact thermal storage systems or centralised large-scale thermal storages systems become available.
Thermo-chemical storage, which uses reversible chemical reactions to store energy, can achieve densities 5 to 12 times greater than sensible stores and perhaps up to 20 times greater, while being able to deliver thermal energy at different discharging temperatures, dependent on the properties of a specific thermo-chemical reaction.
Sensible heat storage systems (e.g. hot and chilled water) and some latent heat stores (e.g. ice storage) are mature technologies. However, developments in advanced phase change materials (PCM) and chemical reactions are creating new application possibilities, such as PCMs embedded in building materials such as bricks, wall boards and flooring.
Current R&D is focused on reducing the specific costs of high-density storage, which are still too high for many applications in buildings. Another key challenge is to verify and improve the number of cycles that can be achieved by emerging storage technologies.
Integrating the storage volumes underground, particularly for large-scale stores, is still a challenge for low-cost storage volumes especially in urban areas, with R&D in this area focusing on new materials and construction methods.
Additional applications for buildings include dehumidification, temperature control of electronic equipment, conservation of temperature-sensitive goods and cold/warm bags, medical wraps, etc.
The vision of this roadmap is to achieve the future outlined in the ETP BLUE Map scenario, whereby heating and cooling technologies reduce building-related CO2 emissions by 2 Gt by 2050. This requires an acceleration in the rate at which these technologies are adopted worldwide. This transformation will reduce energy demand, CO2 emissions and energy bills while improving energy security.
Buildings are complex systems that are influenced by a wide range of factors but many "one-off" improvements can be implemented without affecting future abatement options; these often offer low-cost incremental savings.
Energy efficiency options are available in the buildings sector that can reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions from heating and cooling equipment, lighting and appliances rapidly and at low cost. But achieving deep cuts in energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the building sector will be much more expensive and faces significant barriers. It will require an integrated approach, with much more ambitious policies on building shells than are currently foreseen, particularly in the existing stock of buildings in OECD countries, and on decarbonising the energy sources used.
The most cost-effective approach to the transition to a sustainable buildings sector will involve three parallel efforts: z The rapid deployment of existing technologies that are energy-efficient (including designing and building better building shells to minimize overall energy demand) to low-cost applications and the use of low/zero carbon technologies. R&D into new technologies will need to be increased and existing technologies optimized for new applications in the building sector.
While an essential first step, energy efficiency alone will not be sufficient to meet ambitious climate-change goals which also require a significant shift in fuel use to low-carbon energy sources.
The consumption of electricity, district heat, heat from building-scale CHP and solar is higher in 2050 than in 2005 in the BLUE Map scenario. Solar grows the most, accounting for 11% of total energy consumption in the building sector as its widespread deployment for water heating (30% to 60% of useful demand today depending on the region) and, to a lesser extent, space heating (10% to 35% of useful demand today depending on the region) helps to improve the efficiency of energy use in the building sector and to reduce CO2 emissions.
The increased deployment of heat pumps for space and water heating as well as the deployment of more efficient heat pumps for cooling account for 63% of the heating and cooling technology savings. Solar thermal systems for space and water heating account for about 29% of the savings. CHP plays a small but important role in reducing CO2 emissions and account for 8% of the savings, and also assists in the balancing of the renewables-dominated electricity system in the BLUE Map scenario by adding increased electricity generation flexibility.
To accelerate the widespread adoption of energy-efficient heating and cooling technologies worldwide between now and 2050 in order to achieve significant reductions in energy, CO2 and other pollutant emissions, and energy bills and to shift the buildings sector to a more sustainable future.
Dramatic transformation in the markets for these technologies which will take them from small-scale deployment with the exception of heat pumps for air conditioning to large-scale mass-market technologies that are the incumbent technologies for heating and cooling from 2030 onwards.
Developing scenarios for the future is an inherently uncertain exercise To explore the sensitivity of the results to different input assumptions several variants of the BLUE Map scenario have been analysed They are z BLUE Heat Pumps this scenario looks at ultra-high efficiency heat pump air conditioners COP of 9 for cooling and humidity control and faster cost reductions for space and water heating applications.
The main distinction between these scenarios is that in each case a specific technology is assumed to achieve significant cost reductions earlier than in the BLUE Map scenario This technology therefore gains a higher share of installations than competing options.
The deployment of energy-efficient and low/zero carbon technologies for heating and cooling needs to increase twelve-fold by 2050.
KEY POINT: The deployment of energy-efficient and low/zero carbon technologies for heating and cooling needs to increase twelve-fold by 2050. number of installed units for in the residential sector for space heating and cooling, and hot water will reach almost 3.5 billion by 2050.
The starting point for total CHP in the residential and service sectors is very uncertain. Comprehensive data on installed CHP capacity is not available at a global level.
In the BLUE Map scenario, deployment ramps up slowly but accelerates from 2015 to 2030, as conventional systems come online and the large-scale deployment of the first generation of fuel-cell systems begins.
Worldwide, the number of installed heat pump systems for heating and cooling in the residential sector in 20 will grow to 3 500 million.
Today's heat pumps are small air conditioning or reversible units with a typical capacity of 2 kW to 3.5 kW. Their contribution to space heating in some markets is significant, but at a global level the contribution to hot water production is currently very modest.
In the BLUE Map scenario, the share of units providing space and water heating will rise to one-quarter of the total by 2050. In absolute terms, non-OECD countries drive the growth in the BLUE Map scenario. However, the greatest growth in heat pump use for space heating occurs in the OECD, Former Soviet Union and China.
The primary areas where thermal energy storage is deployed in the BLUE Map scenario are: z Integrated heat pump systems for heating and cooling, which use conventional storage (hot water systems), underground storage and compact thermal storage.
This system will provide three benefits: In climates with a high cooling load in summer, coinciding with the peak load of the electricity grid, load shifting using chilled water or ice storage tanks is an evident option. Countries with a high rate of penetration of these storage systems include Japan, South Korea and the United States.
The primary areas where thermal energy storage is deployed in the BLUE Map scenario are: z Integrated heat pump systems for heating and cooling, which use conventional storage (hot water systems), underground storage and compact thermal storage. These will provide three benefits:
Thermal energy storage is an integral part of the BLUE Map scenario, providing the flexibility to take advantage of energy and CO2 emission reduction opportunities.
Costs and performance vary widely among heating and cooling technologies and also for each individual technology because of differences in end-use applications, climate, technology specification, user requirements and building occupation profiles. Variations within each country are even more pronounced at a global level, so it is difficult to present meaningful results that are directly comparable at a highly aggregated level. For these reasons, this roadmap looks in detail at the costs and performance of heating and cooling technologies in a relatively narrow range of applications and building types in several key countries29 and then summarises the results.
For space heating and hot water production, the cumulative investment additional to that in the Baseline scenario in the buildings sectors is estimated to be USD 3.8 trillion (Figure 9), but could be as high as USD 6.3 trillion if costs decrease less quickly than projected in the BLUE Map scenario.
These scenarios are based on a set of equipment cost reduction assumptions, if a greater share of the savings can be achieved by improved application and integration of existing technologies, then the costs could be significantly lower.
The area where this uncertainty is greatest is with regard to improved space cooling systems.Incremental investment needs are high in the early period of deployment, as unit costs remain significantly higher than those for incumbent technologies.
As costs start to come down, deployment accelerates, particularly from 2015 to 20.30. Although the incremental investment costs for cooling are modest in the short-term, the transition to the best available technologies will be very costly in the longer term, driven by the very rapid expansion in demand for cooling, primarily in developing countries, compared with the slowing and even declining demand for space heating as building shells improve.
Although many of the energy-efficient and low/zero carbon technologies for heating and cooling are commercially available in many applications, a significant number of improvements can be expected with increased RD&D efforts, particularly in terms of cost reductions and in optimising systems for a wider range of applications. These improvements are needed to achieve the energy savings and CO2 emissions reductions envisioned in this roadmap in a timely manner.
Invest in additional research, development and demonstration This roadmap recommends the following actions: Milestones Develop cross-stakeholder consensus on the importance of energy sector R&D to secure stable long-term funding. Increase RD&D expenditure on heating and cooling technologies by USD 3.5 billion per year over today's levels by 2030.
Develop national or regional integrated RD&D strategies for buildings, identifying short- and long-term priorities for investing in heating and cooling systems and integrating them into the smart energy systems of the future. Public and private sector investment in RD&D for heating and cooling technologies needs to increase by USD 3.5 billion per year above today’s levels by 2030 if additional improvements to today’s systems are to be achieved and demonstrated in a timely manner, while maintaining progress on developing solutions beyond the best available technology.
Governments, utilities, associations, industry and researchers should pursue national and international collaboration on RD&D, which helps to accelerate learning by sharing experiences and avoiding the need to "reinvent the wheel", while using scarce resources more effectively. The IEA multilateral technology initiatives, which bring together researchers from across countries and regions, are one example.
Government support of research and development is vital to enable specific heating and cooling technologies to cross the "valley of death" – the journey from initial scientific research to self-sustaining levels of market deployment.
around 60% will be required to support accelerated R&D efforts to improve performance and reduce the cost of existing technologies with the balance for demonstration projects Large-scale demonstration projects of energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon technologies are needed to help reduce technical and market barriers by providing robust data to evaluate their performance in each market segment This will allow designs to be adapted or made more flexible reduce costs ensure they perform as consumers expect and deliver the energy and CO2 savings anticipated
An important first step however is to ensure that current RD&D funding is being spent wisely and effectively and in alignment with the goals identified for heating and cooling equipment public funding should go primarily to energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon technologies rather than to fossil fuels Stable long-term funding commitments are critical to developing research capacity and achieving the maximum value from R&D investment
Priorities can then be identified for market segments and individual technologies as well as for private sector participation Continuity is vital in order to avoid wasteful situations where RD&D and funding are ramped up and then scaled back with negative impacts on the industry as has sometimes occurred
Integration with the overall goals of the BLUE Map scenario needs to be an overarching goal RD&D should aim at enabling energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon heating and cooling technologies to link seamlessly with the smart energy networks of the future so that they can send receive and respond to information upstream from utilities and grid operators and downstream from home energy management and building operating systems
R&D into the integration of solar thermal collectors into building shells and the development of low-cost multifunctional building components incorporating collectors R&D into alternative materials for use in collectors that can reduce costs and improve performance From 2011 deployment of new collectors between 2015 and 2030
RD&D for desiccant and sorption systems and high-temperature solar collectors for solar cooling reduced costs improved performance development of small-scale thermally-driven chillers 2012-2020 Development of systems and designs suitable for large-scale mass production that incorporate the latest materials 2011-2020
Mature solar thermal technologies are commercially available, but further development is needed to provide new products and applications, reduce the cost of systems and increase market deployment. Depending on location, new buildings constructed to low-energy or passive house standards could derive all of their space and water heating needs from solar thermal by 2030 at reasonable cost.
Solar thermal renovations resulting in a solar coverage of well over 50% should become a cost-effective refurbishment option for single- and multi-family houses and smaller-scale commercial buildings. These goals are ambitious but realistic if the right mix of RD&D, industry development and consistent market deployment programmes are applied.
To reach these goals the following technologies need to be developed: Integration of solar collectors in building components. Building envelopes need to become solar collectors themselves, so both the performance of collectors and their direct integration into buildings needs to be improved. This should lead to the development of multifunctional building components which act as elements of the building envelope and as solar collectors.
Alternative materials: The development of new components for use in collectors – such as polymers or plastics, the coating of absorbers (optimised to resist stagnation temperatures) and new materials to tackle deterioration resulting from UV exposure – could help to reduce the cost and improve the economics of solar thermal systems.
Low-cost compact thermal energy storage will be critical to AST meeting a larger proportion of space and water heating and cooling. Intelligent control systems that communicate with building energy management systems will increase the useful solar energy available. These centralised and integrated control systems need to be able to benchmark and self-diagnose problems, while facilitating the integration of complementary systems (e.g. hybrid solar thermal/heat pump systems) and communicating upstream to utilities.
Improving the automation of manufacturing will help to reduce initial system costs and expand the economic application to a wider range of customers, particularly for retrofitting existing buildings.
The key challenges are optimising components and lowering costs, through more R&D but also through large-scale, high-volume production. In addition, further R&D into flexibility of operation and variable heat/electricity balance would improve their economics.
Similarly, R&D and demonstration will be required on micro-CHP integration into smart grids and real-time data exchange with the network.
Reciprocating engines are a mature technology, but incremental improvements in efficiency, performance and costs should be possible. The US Department of Energy’s Advanced Reciprocating Engine Systems programme (ARES) aims to deploy an advanced natural gas-fired reciprocating engine with higher electrical efficiency, reduced emissions and 10% lower delivered energy costs.
Manufacturers of liquid fuel-fired reciprocating engines are incorporating design modifications and new component technologies to improve performance and reduce emissions.
Many of these improvements will filter down from improvements in large-scale gas turbine development.
Stirling engines are at the market introduction stage and R&D to reduce their costs and improve their electrical efficiency is required. This can be achieved by increasing the working hot-end temperature by using high-temperature materials in the hot-end components; these exist today, but their costs need to come down.
The R&D priorities are to reduce costs and improve durability and operational lifetimes. Better fuel-cell system design, new high-temperature materials and an improved understanding of component degradation and failure could considerably enhance the durability of fuel cells.
Fuel cells and their balance of plant will need to have an operating life of 40 000 to 80 000 hours to be competitive in buildings; current designs are expected to meet the lower end of this range, but further progress is needed.
R&D into more efficient components and systems for heat pumps for heating and cooling applications, as well as to reduce first-costs for heat pumps for heating and cooling.20% improvement in COPs by 20; 50% by 2030.
Efficient low-temperature space heating systems and high-temperature space cooling systems integrated with heat pumps. All new buildings capable of accepting low-temperature heating/high-temperature cooling by 2020 in OECD.
The development of hybrid systems (e.g. heat pump/solar thermal systems) offers the potential for very high year-round COPs. R&D also needs to focus on developing packaged integrated heat pump systems capable of providing cooling and space and water heating simultaneously for small-scale applications.
Improved performance is important, but efficiency will increase more slowly now that highly efficient systems are available. Just as important is the technology effort to reduce costs of systems, so that they are competitive in a wider range of applications.
Systems/applications : Optimise component integration and improve heat pump design and installations for specific applications to achieve higher seasonal efficiency in wider capacity ranges. Improve optimisation with ventilation systems in larger applications.
Control and operation : Develop intelligent control strategies to adapt operation to variable loads and optimise annual performance. Develop automatic fault detection and diagnostic tools. Improve communication with building energy management systems and upstream to smart energy grids.
Integrated and hybrid systems : Develop integrated heat pump systems that combine multiple functions (e.g. space-conditioning and water heating) and hybrid heat pump systems that are paired with other energy technologies (e.g. storage, solar thermal and other energy sources) in order to achieve very high levels of performance.
Develop and promulgate information defining and quantifying benefits for good design, installation and maintenance of systems in order to realise the full efficiency potential of the heat pumps.In parallel, improvements in building design and operation that reduce the temperature lift performed by the heat pump will increase the average operating efficiency (the seasonal or annual performance factor).
RD&D for thermal energy storage should focus on reducing costs and improving the ability to shift energy demand — for electricity, gas, etc. — over hours, days, weeks or seasons and facilitating the greater use of renewable energy.
A high number of charging and discharging cycles is critical for most TES applications, so the stability of materials in the systems is very important – not only the storage medium itself but also materials used in systems components such as containers, heat exchangers and pipes.
Once thermal energy storage technologies have reached the level for prototype or demonstration, further improvements will be necessary to bring them to market. Better materials are the most promising way to achieve this, but cost barriers may prevent otherwise effective solutions from being implemented.
Worldwide R&D activities on novel materials for PCMs and thermo-chemical approaches are insufficiently linked at the moment and this needs to change. Many projects are focused on material problems related to one specific application and potentially miss wider opportunities for material applications in storage.
Over the last few years, the emphasis of co-operative RD&D efforts has shifted towards storage technologies that improve the manageability of energy systems or facilitate the integration of renewable energy sources.
Meeting the strategic goals for the BLUE Map scenario will require research focused on key areas of technical advancement: z Phase-change materials and other material advancements; z Stability of materials and system components over lifetime charge/discharge cycles; z Analysis of system-specific storage parameters for different applications; z Optimised control and operation; z High-temperature energy stores.
The key performance expectation for the household sector is that low-cost compact thermal energy storage will become available for small-scale applications in heating and cooling systems by 20-25. This will allow initial deployment between 20 and 20, and large-scale deployment from 30. The most promising areas of R&D are in PCMs and thermo-chemical stores, with hybrid systems (combining PCM and sensible heat systems) likely to allow early deployment of systems at a reasonable cost.
If consumers are not given adequate incentives to address the environmental costs of energy use, they are unlikely to make optimal decisions from an economic and environmental perspective.
However, even if the environmental costs are built into energy prices, many non-cost market barriers remain to more efficient and low/zero carbon heating and cooling technologies.
The building sector is very fragmented, with numerous decision makers (architects, engineers, builders, developers, home-owners, etc.) and applications (by market segment), so policies need to be "broad" in order to tackle all the barriers, and "deep", in order to ensure the barriers faced by all those in the decision-making chain are addressed.
The key barriers identified in this roadmap that need to be addressed are: Higher initial costs; Market risks for new technologies; Imperfect information; Uncertainty (technical, regulatory, policy, etc.).
Decision makers faced with significant uncertainty are likely to delay investment decisions or opt for incumbent technologies where uncertainty is minimal and there is an expectation — perhaps not achieved in reality — that the risks involved are quantifiable and therefore manageable.
Strong policy co-ordination is required to overcome the limited planning horizon of many consumers and industry players given the long-term nature of the transition for the buildings sector which needs to be co-ordinated over 40 years if the costs of meeting the BLUE Map goals are to be minimised.
the challenge laid down in the blue map scenario requires strong national and international commitments to improving energy efficiency and reducing co2 emissions a long-term view is required to ensure that policy positions are not eroded in the face of changing short-term fiscal or political priorities creeping delays in implementation raise the long-term cost of a given goal and could eventually preclude certain levels of co2 reduction at a given point of time at reasonable cost policy action is therefore urgent
achieving the energy and co2 emissions reductions from the level of deployment in this roadmap will require strong consistent stable and balanced policy support in the following four main areas z increased technology rd significant demonstration programmes and the development of beyond best available technologies bat an additional usd 3.5 billion per year is needed by 2030 z improved information for consumers and agreed robust metrics for analysing the energy and co2 savings of heating and cooling technologies as well as their life-cycle financial benefits
stable long-term policies will be required to give actors in the sector the confidence to invest achieving the roadmap’s ambitious goals and overcoming existing barriers will require targeted action all along the chain from basic research to demonstration and deployment
the deployment levels of heating and cooling technologies will be influenced by a range of factors including awareness of the technology’s benefits among consumers builders and policy makers the implementation of financing mechanisms to mitigate up-front cost barriers and the availability of performance standards and certification programmes given the well-documented non-market barriers that energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon technologies face active government policy developed in partnership with consumers building developers architects manufacturers industry associations and local and regional governments will be essential to unlocking the potential these technologies have to reduce energy consumption and co2 emissions
A large number of policy areas affect the building sector, from fire and electrical safety, to local planning regulations and energy efficiency policy, and many different parties develop and/or implement policy and regulation, so poor policy co-ordination is a real risk for the sector. The absence of some stakeholders, or their failure to understand long-term goals, would hinder the transition outlined in this roadmap and could even make its achievement impossible if serious misalignments in policy occur.
A first priority therefore needs to be ensuring that all of the relevant national, regional and local government agencies co-ordinate their policies for buildings. Similarly, all stakeholders need to understand the ultimate goals of the policy framework and the pathway required to get there, and be able to contribute to developing the policy packages for buildings. The involvement of all stakeholders will also help them to develop a sense of ownership in a shared vision.
Switzerland’s efforts to promote heat pumps offer an example of how such co-ordination can work. In 1993, the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) started a strategy to promote heat pumps and established an international network with other institutions. The first important act was the foundation of the Swiss Heat Pump Association which serves as a platform for engineers, contractors, manufacturers, energy suppliers and government organisations.
The SFOE set the rules and provided financial incentives while the association had the responsibility of co-ordinating national and international R&D collaboration, demonstration, statistics, market analyses, education and the promotion of the quality label for heat pumps. Today, heat pumps have a significant market share for retrofits and new buildings in Switzerland. These types of examples have inspired similar efforts in China (see Box 2).
In response to the country’s initiative, several ministries, commissions and local authorities have formulated corresponding policies for energy conservation and energy efficiency in buildings. Many cities have also provided subsidies to encourage the application of ground-source heat pump systems. During the last three years, the central government of China has promulgated a series of policies and regulations about energy conservation and environmental protection so that local governments and the nation will pay more attention to energy efficiency and renewable energy.
Policy development in related areas that affect buildings have created some regulatory barriers to deployment of new technologies – building codes that prohibit the installation of solar thermal collectors on roofs, for example, or local regulations that discourage innovative building solutions.
To achieve the goals set out in this roadmap, the market will have to be transformed. This will require the removal of market barriers – such as lack of prioritisation of energy efficiency, capital market barriers and absence of external costs – and market failures such as an inadequate number of market participants, a lack of perfect information, principal-agent problems, transactions costs and delays, and inadequate financial mechanisms.
Achieving complete market transformation in the building sector is an extremely challenging policy goal due to the large number of individual decision-makers and the fact that the building sector is large, diverse and fragmented.
These barriers are estimated to be significant and widespread in many end-use markets in IEA countries (Prindle, 2007) and could slow the transition to energy-efficient and low-carbon buildings.
Identify what drives choices by heating and cooling system decision-makers (architects, engineers, consumers, installers, etc.). Identify what information, at what time, and in what form will have the most impact on their decision-making process. Begin 2011.
Develop standardised information/metric packages of life-cycle costs and benefits for heating and cooling technologies. Mandate their distribution, including estimated lowest CO2 emissions and life-cycle cost solutions, at point of sale and in documentation supporting quotes/system designs. Packages should highlight financial risks of fossil fuel systems (energy and CO2 pricing).Begin 2011, with information available in the OECD by 2014 and the rest of the world by 2018.
Harmonise international test procedures to ensure transparency for comparison of heating and cooling options. Work with existing organisations such as the International Standards Organisation. Some work already under way; accelerate work in OECD by 2015 and extend to rest of world by 2025.
Develop effective communication policies to: Ensure that stakeholders in the building sector and consumers are aware of the information available and are educated in the use of the information, particularly the importance of life-cycle costs; Raise the importance of energy efficiency and low/zero-carbon technologies in the hierarchy of factors influencing the purchase selections of decision-makers.Begin 2011, to be ongoing.