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As for potential alternative sources of supply, Saudi Arabia, along with neighbours Kuwait and the UAE, and Russia have the capacity to respond swiftly and with similar-quality crude to a cutback in Iranian exports. Iraq captured much of Iran's lost market share in Europe during sanctions, but some 250 kb/d of its capacity is offline in northern Iraq due to an ongoing dispute between the federal government and the KRG. US LTO could help replace condensates. |
Based on Iran's hydrocarbon reserves, it has the potential to produce more than the current volumes of nearly 5 mb/d of crude, condensates and NGLs. Iran is seeking to raise production by attracting foreign companies after years of underinvestment due to the sanctions. It is negotiating with companies from Europe, Russia and Asia with hopes of securing new upstream contracts. |
Recent data show better than expected performance from the US and Canada. In their latest quarterly earnings and operational updates, US independents highlighted impressive well performance in new shale developments and continued efficiency improvements in drilling operations, which, together with higher prices, underpin an improved outlook for the sector. |
Pioneer said it is contemplating increasing its capital budget and adding more rigs during the second half of the year, due to good results from its advanced Permian well completion designs in West Texas. |
Instead, Occidental said it would allocate cash from rising oil prices to shareholder returns. While exceeding its production targets in 1Q18, EOG kept both spending and production guidance for the year unchanged saying it would maintain its focus on dividend growth. |
Pioneer said that the pipelines currently planned to take oil and gas from the booming Permian and West Texas will not be enough to relieve anticipated bottlenecks in the coming years and that more pipelines must be built to move oil to the US Gulf Coast market. |
PetroChina, the largest producer said its domestic crude oil output fell by 1.8% in 1Q18 compared with a year earlier. The company expects growth from overseas acquisitions and natural gas production to offset declines in its domestic crude oil output this year. |
During March, OECD oil product inventories also declined, by 24.5 mb in line with seasonal patterns, due to higher demand in the northern hemisphere for motor fuels such as diesel and gasoline. |
There are only a few months left to rebuild distillate stocks ahead of the northern hemisphere summer, when demand for diesel and aviation fuels tends to increase. |
OECD oil inventories were revised up by 3.5 mb in January and 4.2 mb in February, reflecting upward changes for the Americas and Asia, but which were largely offset by downward revisions in Europe. |
US gasoline stocks declined seasonally by 1.5 mb with increased vehicle use, while higher diesel exports to Brazil, Chile and the Netherlands contributed to a 10.9 mb drop in diesel stocks, whereas they typically increase at this time of year. |
Brent and WTI futures prices reached multi-year highs of $78.23/bbl and $71.36/bbl on 14 May and 10 May respectively, on tightening fundamentals and in response to geopolitical factors. Given the recent reduction in global stock levels, prices have been less insulated from speculation on the future of the Iranian nuclear deal and market concerns over tensions between the US and Russia in Syria. In addition, robust global demand, outstanding compliance with the Vienna Agreement, Venezuela's production declines and emerging pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian Basin have pushed prices to levels last seen at the end of 2014. In particular, Brent prices have been bolstered, with the Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) peaking at $4.65/bbl on 27 April, the highest since June 2014. As a result, the economic feasibility of exporting volumes priced off Brent, such as Urals and West African crudes, to Asia has suffered. |
Money managers net long positions in crude futures fell to 951 mb on 8 May, the lowest level since December 2017, and short positions fell to 52 mb at mid-month. Relatively speaking, speculative positions remain elevated reflecting ongoing bullish sentiment and surveys by Energy Intelligence and Argus Media indicated that market analysts have continued to raise their 2018 price outlooks. Although net long positions in both Brent and WTI are at historically high levels, speculation has been particularly focused in Brent markets. Net long positions in WTI have actually been declining since the end of March as higher levels of production and export infrastructure constraints are seen to shelter prices in the US. |
April’s increase in futures prices also saw a rise in physical outright crude prices. WTI showed moderate gains of $3.56/bbl as pipeline capacity to transport ever-growing LTO production was fully utilised. Rising US export volumes continued to pressure competing crude grades, such as those from North and West Africa. Although it is early to assess the impact of the US’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, reduced availability of Iranian exports may boost the market for alternative medium sour grades such as Urals and other Middle Eastern crudes. |
While geopolitical risks have boosted global oil markets, price gains in the US have been more moderate due to increasing LTO supply and as stock levels at Cushing grow, albeit from a low level. |
News that a 35 kb/d expansion to the Midland-Sealy pipeline would come online by the end of the month provided a temporary boost to the differential mid-month but significant capacity additions are not expected to be available until 2019. |
in May. Sepa rately, on 8 April pipeline operator Kinder Morgan announced that it was halting all non - essential expenditure on the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline as it decides whether to continue the project in the face of regulatory uncertainty. This is a key project, without which the export constraints facing Canadian producers will only get worse. |
The Brent price was supported by the unexpected closure of the Sullom Voe loading terminal on 3 May that saw several North Sea fields shut in production. The facility was offline for several days and some delays to this and next month’s loadings are expected. Forties strengthened against other grades in the benchmark, thanks to healthy demand from Asia Pacific, in particular from Thailand. |
Demand for the naphtha rich CPC blend has faltered thanks to the availability of relatively cheap propane for petrochemicals and in the face of competition from US LTO for European market share. This has severely pressured differentials by coming at a time when flows from Kazakhstan’s Kashagan field, and thus CPC blend exports, are on the increase. |
As a result, and thanks also to low freight rates, refiners in Korea and Japan are buying CPC blend as an alternative to some Middle Eastern grades. |
Although global product prices increased the rapid increase in crude prices saw product cracks squeezed in Asia The US market was supported by strong demand and extensive refinery turnarounds on the West Coast USWC The switch to summer specification fuel boosted gasoline cracks in Europe and the US |
Gasoline prices rose in April particularly in the US where high crude prices strong demand and refinery maintenance on the USWC saw average spot prices up 20% year on year Prices eased slightly late in the month as imports arrived from Asia and Europe Retail prices for unleaded gasoline have increased by 8% since the beginning of the year US diesel markets are also tight with diesel trading above gasoline on the back of strong domestic and Latin American demand and inventories sharply down since the start of the year |
Margins moved higher in April in Europe and the US, but this was thanks to the seasonal uptick in gasoline cracks due to tighter summer specification. |
Margins were higher month-on-month in Europe and the US, supported by the switch to summer specification gasoline that happened at end-March and mid-March, respectively. Gasoline crack spreads increased by more than $3/bbl. |
There is a view that US crude oil storage has become lighter instead by companies drawing medium-heavy grades for refinery runs and storing the light crudes. In principle, PADD 3 commercial stocks should have become lighter as more infrastructure, such as pipelines and terminals, is dedicated to shale. |
Independent refiners account for three quarters of total capacity there, and the strong rate of growth probably reflects better coverage of independent refining activity by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). In fact, a survey of independent refiners by JLC, a Chinese data provider, shows a lower crude run rate for Shandong in March than NBS data. |
I apologize, but it appears that the text you provided is a table of data and does not contain any full sentence paragraphs. It seems to be a statistical report on oil demand in selected OECD countries. |
Let me know if you'd like me to continue processing the rest of the document or if there's anything else I can assist you with! |
Although some of the data are supplied by IEA Member-country governments, largely on the basis of information they in turn receive from oil companies, neither these governments nor these oil companies necessarily share the Secretariat’s views or conclusions as expressed in the OMR. The OMR is prepared for general circulation and is distributed for general information only. |
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed in the OMR constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities. |
The spot crude and product price assessments are based on daily Argus prices, converted when appropriate to USD per barrel according to the Argus specification of products. |
It should be noted that the spot crude and product price assessments are based on daily Argus prices, converted when appropriate to US$ per barrel according to the Argus specification of products (Copyright © 2018 Argus Media Limited - all rights reserved). |
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. |
The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. |
Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. |
Current trends in energy supply and use are unsustainable – economically, environmentally and socially. Without decisive action, global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will more than double by 2050 and increased oil demand will heighten concerns over the security of supplies. In the building sector, the global number of households will grow by 67% and the floor area of service sector (commercial and institutional) buildings by almost 195%. We can and must change our current energy and climate path; energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon energy technologies for heating and cooling in buildings will play a crucial role in the energy revolution needed to make this change happen. |
To effectively reduce GHG emissions, numerous items will require widespread deployment: energy efficiency, many types of renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power and new transport technologies. Every major country and sector of the economy must be involved and action needs to be taken now to ensure that today’s investment decisions do not burden us with sub-optimal technologies in the long-term. |
There is a growing awareness of the urgent need to turn political statements and analytical work into concrete action. To address these challenges, the International Energy Agency (IEA), at the request of the G8, is developing a series of roadmaps for some of the most important technologies needed for achieving a global energy-related Carbon dioxide (CO2) target in 2050 of 50% below current levels. |
Buildings account for almost a third of final energy consumption globally and are an equally important source of CO2 emissions. Currently, both space heating and cooling as well as hot water are estimated to account for roughly half of global energy consumption in buildings. |
The Energy-Efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment Roadmap sets out a detailed pathway for the evolution and deployment of the key underlying technologies. It finds that urgent action is required if the building stock of the future is to consume less energy and result in lower CO2 emissions. |
Rationale and Scope: The purpose of this roadmap is to provide a clear direction for the development and deployment of energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon heating and cooling technologies in buildings. |
Status of Heating and Cooling Technologies Today: Active solar thermal systems, combined heat and power (CHP) units, and heat pumps are among the most promising options for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from buildings. |
Vision for Heating and Cooling Technology Deployment: The vision is to deploy these technologies on a massive scale, achieving significant cost reductions and performance improvements through economies of scale and learning effects. |
Technology Development: Milestones and Actions: To achieve this vision, significant investment in research, development, and demonstration will be required, focusing on the most promising technologies such as active solar thermal systems, CHP units, heat pumps, and thermal energy storage. |
Heating and Cooling Technology Policy: Strategic Goals and Actions: The policy goals should focus on creating a supportive environment for the deployment of these technologies, through measures such as tax incentives, building codes, and public education campaigns. |
Conclusions: Near-term Actions for Stakeholders: To accelerate the transition to low-carbon buildings, stakeholders must take immediate action to support the development and deployment of energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon heating and cooling technologies. |
Solar energy systems can be designed to provide both electricity and heat or cooling using solar thermal technology. |
Heat pumps, combined heat and power (CHP) plants, and active solar thermal systems are three key technologies for providing heating and cooling services in buildings. |
This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Directorate of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology (SPT). |
Michael Taylor was the co-ordinator of the Energy-Efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment roadmap and primary author of this report. |
Most of these technologies – which include solar thermal, combined heat and power (CHP), heat pumps and thermal energy storage – are commercially available today. |
R&D into hybrid systems could lead to highly efficient, low-carbon technologies (e.g. integrated solar thermal/heat pump systems, CHP). Beyond 2030, R&D needs to focus on developing technologies that go beyond the best that are currently available. |
Governments need to create the economic conditions that will enable heating and cooling technologies to meet environmental criteria at least cost. Policies need to be "broad" to address specific barriers (e.g. lack of installer awareness) and "deep" to reach all of the stakeholders in the fragmented building sector. |
Governments should implement systems to collect comprehensive and timely data on energy consumption by end-use in the buildings sector, as well as data on building characteristics, technology deployment, market breakdown, costs and efficiency. This will help improve policy development and allow the monitoring of progress towards roadmap goals |
A wide variety of standardised information packages, tailored to individual decision makers' needs, should be developed to allow decision makers to compare the potential of technology alternatives, identify performance targets and energy and CO2 savings at the time of design or purchase. |
Governments should improve standard education of key professionals, such as architects, designers, engineers, builders, building owners and operators/users in the potential of existing and soon to be commercialised heating and cooling equipment. |
The BLUE Map scenario charts an entirely different future for the buildings sector, in which aggressive policy action reduces energy consumption and CO2 emissions and improves energy security. In this scenario, global building-sector energy consumption is reduced by 1 509 Mtoe in 20five. |
In the BLUE Map scenario, energy consumption in the buildings sector is reduced by around one-third of the Baseline scenario level in 20five. Energy-efficient and low/zero-carbon heating and cooling systems and building shell improvements account for 63% of the energy savings in the BLUE Map scenario and play a central role in reducing CO2 emissions and increasing system flexibility. |
The reduced oil and gas consumption as the result of a switch to these technologies improves energy security and may also improve a country’s balance of payments by reducing imports of energy. The increased use of thermal energy storage technologies in buildings will help improve demand flexibility, while real-time pricing and dynamic communication with smart energy networks will enable the building sector to provide very cost-effectively some of the increased flexibility required in the BLUE Map scenario. |
The roadmap outlines a set of quantitative measures and qualitative actions that define one global pathway for heating and cooling technology deployment to 2050. This roadmap starts with the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 BLUE Map scenario, which describes the role of energy technologies in transforming the buildings sector by 2050 in line with an overall goal of reducing global annual energy-related CO2 emissions to half that of 2007 levels. |
It is important to note that some of the rates of change (e.g. annual change in equipment sales) in the BLUE Map scenario are unprecedented historically. To achieve such a scenario, strong policies will be needed from governments around the world. The BLUE Map scenario is predicated on strong policies to accelerate energy R&D, deploy energy efficient and low/zero-carbon energy technologies and put a value on CO2 abatement (the BLUE Map scenario necessitates a marginal abatement cost in 2050 of USD 175/t CO2). |
The scenario also assumes robust technological advances (e.g. higher-efficiency components for heating and cooling systems) that, if they do not occur, will make achieving the targets even more difficult or expensive. On the other hand, some unforeseen advances may assist in achieving the scenario or certain aspects of it (e.g. a more rapid fall in lithium ion battery costs, or breakthroughs in fuel cells). |
Two-thirds of the buildings sector energy savings in the BLUE Map scenario come from the residential sector. |
The decarbonisation of the electricity sector accounts for the remaining 6.8 Gt CO2 of savings, but also allows electrification, notably through heat pumps, to become a viable abatement option. |
This roadmap establishes a "big picture" vision for stakeholders in the buildings sector3 and provides concrete advice on how to achieve the savings in the BLUE Map scenario. |
An integral part of the roadmap is identifying the roles and contributions of different stakeholders and how they will need to work together to reach the shared objectives outlined in the BLUE Map scenario. |
The key technology options for heating and cooling in buildings have been narrowed down to those with the greatest long-term potential for reducing CO2 emissions. This roadmap covers the following technologies for space and water heating, heat storage, cooling and dehumidification: |
This roadmap on heating and cooling technologies4 is the first to be published for the buildings sector. Future efforts will look at the building shell, lighting and system issues. |
Buildings require a holistic, "whole-building" approach to maximise savings and minimise costs, so although these roadmaps are published separately, they have been developed within a "whole-building" outlook.5 |
Today's roadmap covers several key building technologies for space and water heating, heat storage, cooling and dehumidification. |
This roadmap focuses on building integrated systems, but it can equally be used in district-heating schemes. |
Traditional CHP systems are mature and a useful transitional technology, while micro-CHP, biomass CHP and even fuel cell systems (using CO2-free hydrogen) may emerge as an important abatement option. |
Heat pumps for cooling and space and water heating are mature, highly efficient technologies that take advantage of renewable energy. |
The importance of space heating and cooling varies by country and region depending on climate and income. In OECD countries, most energy in the building sector is used for space and water heating, while the energy consumption for cooling is generally modest. |
Many criteria must be taken into account in the complex process of choosing heating and cooling technologies, including: z annual heating profile for water and/or space heating, and annual cooling profile; z relative timing of thermal and electric loads; z space constraints; z emission regulations; z utility prices for electricity, and availability and prices of other fuels; z initial cost and the cost of financing; z the seasonal efficiency of the equipment; z complexity of installation and operation; z reputation of the manufacturer; z architect/engineer/builder/installer’s knowledge of available technologies and models. |
The global market for heating and cooling is very large, with the market for cooling worth as much as USD 70 billion in 2008. The value of the residential boiler market in 22 EU countries was estimated to be EUR 5.6 billion in 2004 at manufacturers' prices, not installed cost. |
Solar thermal technologies provide heat that can be used for any low-temperature heat application in buildings, including space and water heating, and cooling with thermally driven chillers. The global installed capacity in 2008 was estimated to be 152 GWth, with additions in that year of 29 GWth (Figure 4). |
Cost reductions and improved performance are likely as there is substantial room for innovation and for improving existing technologies and applications, as well as commercialising emerging technologies such as solar cooling. |
Coupling solar thermal collectors with thermally driven chillers would enable systems to meet space heating and cooling, as well as hot water demands. |
The dominant technology of thermally-driven chillers is based on sorption. The basic physical process consists of at least two chemical components, one of them serving as the refrigerant and the other as the sorbent. Many sorption chillers are available commercially at different capacities, but few at 100 kWth or less. |
Solar cooling is attractive because solar radiation usually coincides closely with cooling loads, while many service-sector buildings also have simultaneous heating and cooling requirements. However, costs will have to come down and a wider range of technology packages will have to be developed, particularly for single-family dwellings, before solar cooling is likely to be deployed on a large scale. |
Combined heat and power is the simultaneous production of electricity and heat (for space and/or water heating), and potentially of cooling (using thermally driven chillers). CHP technologies can reduce CO2 emissions in the building sector today in a wide range of applications, depending on the fuel chosen, its overall efficiency and the avoided CO2 from central electricity generating plant. But like the electricity generation sector, CHP will have to decarbonise almost completely in the BLUE Map scenario. |
Combined heat and power plants consist of four basic elements: a prime mover (engine or drive system), an electricity generator, a heat recovery system and a control system. CHP units are generally classified by the type of application, prime mover and fuel used. There are several mature CHP technologies, including reciprocating engines and turbines. Newer CHP technologies that are not yet fully commercialised, such as fuel cells and Stirling engines, are beginning to be developed. |
Today's total installed capacity in countries for which data is available is estimated to be 360 GWe (IEA, 2008), representing a replacement cost of USD 630 billion to USD 700 billion. Although data are not available for the proportion of this CHP installed in residential and commercial buildings, the figure could be in the order of 10 GWe and perhaps 17 GWth. |
In the BLUE Map scenario, given the decarbonisation of electricity generation, CHP will need to shift to fuel sources that are carbon-free (biomass, biogas, hydrogen from CO2-free sources, etc.) or largely carbon-free after 2030 if it is not to be a transitional solution to climate change. Building-scale applications using fuel cells (powered by CO2-free hydrogen) and biomass CHP systems play an important part in the BLUE Map scenario after 2030. |
CHP systems are generally more efficient, from a systems perspective, than the separate, centralised production and distribution of electricity and local production of heat, as CHP requires less primary energy. However, CO2 savings are highly dependent on the specific energy system and the CHP system specifications. |
A wide range of CHP technologies are already available, with different performance characteristics and costs. There are a number of mature technologies available, as well as some that are not widely deployed and others that still require further R&D. |
They are a mature technology, available in a wide range of sizes, with electrical efficiencies of 25% to 48% (typically rising with size)15 and total efficiencies of 75% to 85%. |
There remain challenges to the widespread uptake of CHP technologies in the residential sector, however, including their high first costs, scaling issues,17 and regulatory and information barriers. |
In the service sector, some sub-sectors have proportionately larger water and space heating and cooling loads, with more stable loads throughout the year, which significantly improves the competitiveness of CHP solutions. |
In the commercial sector, the basic technologies used are similar to those in the residential sector, although usually on a larger scale. For heating and cooling, small offices often use reversible air-to-air systems in temperate climates, while in large commercial buildings GSHP in combination with thermal storage technologies offer the possibility of both heating and cooling, with extremely high seasonal performance factors when using "free cooling". Whenever heating and cooling is required at the same time, heat-pump technology can be particularly cost-effective, as only one appliance is necessary. |
The key cooling technologies for service-sector buildings are: Packaged air conditioners are standardised products, with a packaged central unit containing the heat exchanger and compressor – and sometimes the evaporator and condenser as well – all in one cabinet, usually placed on a roof. Chillers, either water- or air-cooled, produce chilled water to cool the air in buildings. |
In commercial buildings, the situation tends to be more complicated. Integrated heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are often the norm in OECD countries. The integrated design of the building shell and the HVAC system, including ducting and controls, is a vital area of building design. |
room for improvement still remains. For instance, the coefficient of performance (COP) of the best air conditioners has increased to between 6 and 7. Similar progress has occurred with heat pump water heating systems, with the COP of these devices in Japan increasing from around 3.5 in 2001 to 5.1 in 2008. |
The efficiency of a heat pump depends on several factors, but the most critical is the temperature lift or reduction that is being sought. The higher the differential is, the lower the efficiency of the |
Current heat pump designs have not yet approached theoretical limits of performance, although there will be restrictions on how close to the theoretical limit systems can get for economic and technical reasons. |
The standards and names used to express annual energy performance differ between Asia, North America and Europe. The International Organization for Standardisation (ISO) is working on a global standard for SPF calculation (called APF, Annual Performance Factor). |
These performance improvements have been achieved through advances in individual components and better overall system integration. The incorporation of inverters in heat pumps has allowed high COPs to be achieved when operating at part loads. |
Thermal energy storage (TES) systems can be charged with heat or cold and hold this energy over time. |
The key parameters of thermal energy stores are their capacity, power rating (ability to discharge), efficiency (losses over time and with charge/discharge) and cost (Table 7). |