Datasets:

G11

/

climate_adaptation_abstracts

like 1

The importance of extension services in helping smallholder farmers to address the many challenges of agricultural production cannot be over-emphasized. However, relatively few studies have been conducted that investigate how the capacities of agricultural extension agents can be built to more effectively assist smallholder farmers in managing climate risks and impacts. As climate change is a key threat to smallholder food production, addressing this issue is increasingly important. This paper aims to identify how agricultural extension agents in Ghana can better support smallholder farmers in navigating and addressing the effects of climate change on food production. It asks: (i) what are the sources of information used by agricultural extension agents in Ghana's Upper East region? (ii) what are the capacity building needs of agricultural extension agents for effective communication of climate information for building resilient agricultural systems? (iii) what are the key barriers to successful extension outcomes for climate change adaptation? The paper uses a mixed methods approach including three regional stakeholder workshops, expert interviews and surveys with 32 agricultural extension agents in northeastern Ghana. Results addressing question (i) indicated that radios and television are the dominant sources of climate information for agricultural extension agents in the Upper East region. Findings targeting question (ii) identified capacity building needs such as developing extension agents' technical skills, improving communication skills, improving knowledge and use of climate smart agricultural interventions such as soil moisture conservation methods, and training on information communication technologies (ICT) to deliver extension advice on climate change. Other needs included developing skills in field demonstration and project monitoring and evaluation. Addressing question (iii), key barriers confronted by agricultural extension agents in the delivery of extension on climate change included lack of transportation facilities for extension agents, lack of appropriate extension materials, high agricultural extension agent to farmer ratios, and inadequate funds to implement adaptation practices. Wider barriers reducing the effectiveness of extension efforts included farmer resistance to change and complex land tenure arrangements that do not allow investment. Periodic workshops should be organised for agricultural extension agents on the use of ICT to deliver extension services, whilst encouraging the use of audio-visuals in extension delivery. These efforts should be supported by regular assessments of extension agents' capacity building needs.

Antwi-Agyei, P; Stringer, LC

Improving the effectiveness of agricultural extension services in supporting farmers to adapt to climate change: Insights from northeastern Ghana

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100304

Climate change is considered a moral, ethical and social issue, which makes it different from other developmental issues. The foremost instance of lack of justice regarding climate change is that the worst impacted areas are the ones with the lowest contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, such as the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh (SWCRB). Climate change is principally triggered by the presence and eventual spread of industrialization. This study employed the mixed method, combining qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis for development of a framework for climate justice. Data and information were obtained from both primary and secondary sources. In primary sources, quantitative data were collected from climate vulnerable community households using a structured close ended questionnaire and interactive sessions such as focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, key informant interviews, workshops, and case studies. This study explored the perceptions of people in the SWCRB, currently experiencing devastating effects of climate change and sea level rise including extreme natural disasters, seasonal changes, flooding, salinization, riverbank erosion, and waterlogging. These climate-induced changes are causing loss of housing, livelihoods, and land to the natives, in addition to a lack of access to proper nutrition, potable water, and healthcare thus exacerbating social injustice. A capability-based approach to climate justice is introduced in this paper, which allows for residents of this region to prepare and rebuild their own communities and create adaptive mechanisms based on their specific capabilities. This approach requires compensation (funding) from the global community, in addition to organizational connection between local people and other stakeholders. The people in the SWCRB are increasingly opting for community-based disaster management and inclusion in policy making. Persistent issues faced by these communities require sustainable development of embankments and infrastructure, as well as affordable and sustainable access to potable water. Industrialized nations should provide this compensation for climate change, in addition to acting promptly to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and opt for renewable energy to avoid worst-case scenario. Lastly, involuntarily displaced climate refugees must be provided rights, compensation, and relocation assistance.

Ashrafuzzaman, M; Gomes, C; Guerra, J

Climate justice for the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.881709

Non-state and sub-national actors (e.g. companies, civil society, cities and regions, collectively referred to as 'NSAs') could bridge the ambition gap left by insufficiently ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Increasing effective non-state and sub-national contributions could both support NDCs' implementation and spur ambitious updates to these national climate action plans. The impact of NSAs depends partly on whether and how national climate strategies recognize them. Yet, systematic knowledge about the extent to which national governments envisage a role for non-state and sub-national climate action is scarce. How do governments refer to NSAs in their NDCs; and what capacities, functions, and in which sectors do they envisage non-state contributions? We apply structural topic modelling (STM), an efficient quantitative text analysis technique seldom used in global climate governance research, to 147 NDCs to explore whether and how national governments incorporate non-state and subnational contributions into their international climate commitments. Using this method, we identify key topics for non-state and subnational engagement in NDCs, including vulnerability and adaptation, monitoring, general and sector-specific collaboration, and policy support. We find that developing countries overwhelmingly reference NSAs more frequently than developed countries. We also find predominantly negative trade-offs in how countries link to NSAs, suggesting countries tend to mention NSAs' contributions in specific roles rather than across multiple sectors. Our findings suggest there is scope for countries to broaden their linkage to NSAs in their updated NDCs to further catalyze engagement. Key policy insights Linkages to NSA initiatives (including cities, regions, businesses or civil society) in NDCs under the Paris Agreement are mostly made by developing countries. Developing countries describe NSAs primarily in the context of vulnerability and adaptation policy implementation, while developed countries mainly describe these actors' role as collaborators across a range of functions. Closer coordination between NSAs and national governments, to fully leverage NSA contributions to NDCs, can be achieved by explicitly outlining NSAs' contributions in future updates of NDCs.

Hsu, A; Brandt, J; Widerberg, O; Chan, S; Weinfurter, A

Exploring links between national climate strategies and non-state and subnational climate action in nationally determined contributions (NDCs)

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1624252

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of similar to 1 km(2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e. g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e. g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km(2) resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Winsemius, HC; Van Beek, LPH; Jongman, B; Ward, PJ; Bouwman, A

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

Hydrology And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013

Purpose Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia's agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise. Design/methodology/approach This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia's agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a steady-state and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country's agriculture sector. Findings The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the hardest hit sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery. Originality/value The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.

Belford, C; Huang, DL; Ahmed, YN; Ccay, E; Lang, SY

An economic assessment of the impact of climate change on the Gambia's agriculture sector: a CGE approach

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0003

Floods are a frequent natural calamity in Bangladesh, where many areas get affected almost every year. An indicator-based vulnerability assessment can help efficiently manage the disaster. Therefore, this study intends to assess the community vulnerability in the Jamuna floodplain, one of the most flood-affected areas, using an indexing method. The index involves many indicators of flood exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity along with their weights, determined based on an extensive literature review. A pretested questionnaire was employed to collect primary data from the study area through 400 household-level interviews. Using multistage sampling techniques, five upazilas from Jamalpur district, i.e., Dewanganj, Islampur, Madarganj, Melandaha, and Sharishabari, were purposefully chosen based on past flood damage reports. The percentage values were derived using SPSS for every variable from the field-level data. The variable vulnerability index (VVI) was computed by dividing the indicator's weight by its percentage value. Then, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices were calculated using the VVI values. Finally, the composite vulnerability index (CVI) of the five Upazilas has been computed using an established and recognized index formula. The CVI scores for Dewanganj, Islampur, Madarganj, Melandaha, and Sharishabari are 0.86, 0.84, 0.71, 0.70, and 0.65, respectively, which suggest a high overall vulnerability. The scores of the exposure and adaptive capacity indices reveal that Dewanganj and Islampur Upazilas have higher vulnerability than the other three upazilas, especially due to poor socioeconomic conditions, low adaptive capacity, and high exposure. This study recommends some infrastructural development, such as sustainable flood-resistant dams, as the study sites are in a flood-prone zone. Houses should be built using flood-resistant materials like bricks and concrete, which are more resilient than mud. Improvements in education and multiple income sources will help the affected people increase their coping capacity.

Haque, MM; Islam, S; Sikder, MB; Islam, MS; Tabassum, A

Assessment of flood vulnerability in Jamuna floodplain: a case study in Jamalpur district, Bangladesh

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05677-1

This paper synthesizes what is known about the physical and biophysical impacts of climate change and their consequences for societies and development under different levels of global warming in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Projections show increasing mean temperatures by up to 4.5 A degrees C compared to pre-industrial by the end of this century across LAC. Associated physical impacts include altered precipitation regimes, a strong increase in heat extremes, higher risks of droughts and increasing aridity. Moreover, the mean intensity of tropical cyclones, as well as the frequency of the most intense storms, is projected to increase while sea levels are expected to rise by similar to 0.2-1.1 mm depending on warming level and region. Tropical glacier volume is found to decrease substantially, with almost complete deglaciation under high warming levels. The much larger glaciers in the southern Andes are less sensitive to warming and shrink on slower timescales. Runoff is projected to be reduced in Central America, the southern Amazon basin and southernmost South America, while river discharge may increase in the western Amazon basin and in the Andes in the wet season. However, in many regions, there is uncertainty in the direction of these changes as a result of uncertain precipitation projections and differences in hydrological models. Climate change will also reduce agricultural yields, livestock and fisheries, although there may be opportunities such as increasing rice yield in several LAC countries or higher fish catch potential in the southernmost South American waters. Species range shifts threaten terrestrial biodiversity, and there is a substantial risk of Amazon rainforest degradation with continuing warming. Coral reefs are at increasing risk of annual bleaching events from 2040 to 2050 onwards irrespective of the climate scenario. These physical and biophysical climate change impacts challenge human livelihoods through, e.g., decreasing income from fisheries, agriculture or tourism. Furthermore, there is evidence that human health, coastal infrastructures and energy systems are also negatively affected. This paper concludes that LAC will be severely affected by climate change, even under lower levels of warming, due to the potential for impacts to occur simultaneously and compound one another.

Reyer, CPO; Adams, S; Albrecht, T; Baarsch, F; Boit, A; Trujillo, NC; Cartsburg, M; Coumou, D; Eden, A; Fernandes, E; Langerwisch, F; Marcus, R; Mengel, M; Mira-Salama, D; Perette, M; Pereznieto, P; Rammig, A; Reinhardt, J; Robinson, A; Rocha, M; Sakschewski, B; Schaeffer, M; Schleussner, CF; Serdeczny, O; Thonicke, K

Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development

Regional Environmental Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6

Background: Various monitoring approaches have shown that urban areas and their energy systems are major contributors to climate change. Corresponding observations have mostly been based on physical data. However, text data is an untapped source of information that can be analyzed by text mining methods. Taking the example of the German Energy Transition, an interpretation network analysis was used to assess local transition patterns in 16 municipal climate action plans of regional centers in the State of Lower Saxony. Based on the holistic concept of social-ecological systems, three analytical perspectives were introduced, the social system, the energy system, and the three principles of strong sustainability, which inspired three questions: What is the horizon of attention regarding the stages of the energy system? What potential, in terms of coordination or collaboration, can be identified on basis of network links between societal sub-systems and the energy system? Are strong sustainability principles adequately linked to the energy system to support a transition towards sustainability? Methods: A computer-aided interpretation network analysis was used. The (co-) occurrence of indicative words representing pre-defined categories was checked in the measures proposed in the plans to analyze the importance and connectedness of these categories. For this purpose, three thesauri were created as fixed literature-based categorization schemes. Results: Municipalities had a nuanced understanding of climate protection focusing on energy conversion and end-use. Public administrations were closely connected role models, economic stakeholders seemed only partly interlinked. The plans referred to all three sustainability principles. However, their implementation might not fully acknowledge the ecological carrying capacity, because, e.g., the strategy of setting limits could not be clearly identified. Conclusions: To advance municipal climate protection, current cross-sectoral multilevel governance approaches should be improved with emphasis on capacity of local administrations, electricity grids, or renewables in the sectors heat and mobility. Also, more emphasis on sustainability communication and education based on all three sustainability principles will be crucial for a transition towards sustainability. From a methodological viewpoint, the text mining approach could confirm and complement recent studies. Considering its limitations and prospects, it can be advanced to useful tool sets for semantic sustainability assessments.

Bickel, MW

A new approach to semantic sustainability assessment: text mining via network analysis revealing transition patterns in German municipal climate action plans

Energy Sustainability And Society

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-017-0125-0

'Losses and damages' refer to impacts of climate change that have not been, or cannot be, avoided through mitigation and adaptation efforts. After the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM), Loss and Damage is now considered the third pillar - besides mitigation and adaptation - of climate action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper studies what the Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC WGII AR5) has to say about this emerging topic. We use qualitative data analysis software (text mining) to assess which climatic stressors, impact sectors and regions the report primarily associates with losses and damages, and compare this with the focus areas of the WIM. The study reveals that IPCC WGII AR5 primarily associates losses and damages with extreme weather events and economic impacts, and treats it primarily as a future risk. Present-day losses and damages from slow-onset processes and non-economic losses receive much less attention. Also, surprisingly, AR5 has more to say about losses and damages in high-income regions than in regions that are most at risk, such as small island states and least developed countries. The paper concludes with recommendations to the IPCC for its 6th Assessment Report (AR6) to include more evidence on losses and damages from slow-onset processes, non-economic losses and damages and losses and damages in vulnerable countries. Key policy insights IPCC WGII AR5 discusses evidence about losses and damages predominantly in relation to sudden-onset disasters and economic costs. More research is needed on losses and damages from slow-onset processes and non-economic loss and damage, particularly in vulnerable countries in the Global South. Funding agencies should support research in these areas and IPCC WGII AR6 should pay more attention to these topics. Losses and damages are not only a future risk, but already a present-day reality for vulnerable people in climate hotspots. People-centred research by social scientists is crucial for enhancing understanding of what losses and damages mean in the real world.

van der Geest, K; Warner, K

Loss and damage in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group II): a text-mining analysis

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1704678

This article explores changing water (in)securities in a context of urbanization and climate change in the peri-urban spaces of four South-Asian cities: Khulna (Bangladesh), Gurugram and Hyderabad (India), and Kathmandu (Nepal). As awareness of water challenges like intensifying use, deteriorating quality and climate change is growing, water security gets more scientific and policy attention. However, in peri-urban areas, the dynamic zones between the urban and the rural, it remains under-researched, despite the specific characteristics of these spaces: intensifying flows of goods, resources, people, and technologies; diversifying uses of, and growing pressures on land and water; and complex and often contradictory governance and jurisdictional institutions. This article analyses local experiences of water (in-)security, conflict and cooperation in relation to existing policies. It uses insights from the analysis of the case studies as a point of departure for a critical reflection on whether a community resilience' discourse contributes to better understanding these cases of water insecurity and conflict, and to better policy solutions. The authors argue that a community resilience focus risks neglecting important insights about how peri-urban water insecurity problems are experienced by peri-urban populations and produced or reproduced in specific socio-economic, political and policy contexts. Unless supported by in-depth hydro-social research, such a focus may depoliticize basically political questions of water (re) allocation, prioritization, and access for marginalized groups. Therefore, the authors plead for more critical awareness among researchers and policy-makers of the consequences of using a community resilience' discourse for making sense of peri-urban water (in-)security.Key policy insights There is an urgent need for more (critical) policy and scientific attention to peri-urban water insecurity, conflict, and climate change.Although a changing climate will likely play a role, more attention is needed to how water insecurities and vulnerabilities in South Asia are socially produced.Researchers and policy-makers should avoid using depoliticized (community) resilience approaches for basically socio-political problems.

Roth, D; Khan, MSA; Jahan, I; Rahman, R; Narain, V; Singh, AK; Priya, M; Sen, S; Shrestha, A; Yakami, S

Climates of urbanization: local experiences of water security, conflict and cooperation in peri-urban South-Asia

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1530967

Using Pakistan and the Arctic as examples, this article examines security challenges arising from climate change. Pakistan is in crisis, and climate change, a transnational phenomenon perhaps better characterized as radical enviro-transformation, is an important reason. Its survival as a state may depend to great extent on how it responds to 2010's devastating floods. In the Arctic, the ice cap is melting faster than predicted, as temperatures there rise faster than in almost any other region. Unmanaged, a complex interplay of climate-related conditions, including large-scale ecomigration, may turn resource competition into resource conflict. Radical enviro-transformation has repeatedly overborne the resilience of societies. War is not an inevitable by-product of such transformation, but in the 21st Century climate-related instability, from resource scarcity and ecomigration, will likely create increasingly undesirable conditions of insecurity. Weak and failing states are one of today's greatest security challenges. The pace of radical enviro-transformation, unprecedented in human history, is accelerating, especially in the Arctic, where a new, open, rich, and accessible maritime environment is coming into being. The international community must work together to enhance security and stability, promote sustainability, and strengthen sovereignty. Radical enviro-transformation provides ample reason and plentiful opportunity for preventative, collaborative solutions focused broadly on adaptation to climate change, most particularly the effects of ecomigration. Nations must work together across the whole of government and with all instruments of national power to create conditions for human transformation-social, political, and economic-to occur stably and sustainably, so as to avoid or lessen the prospects for and consequences of conflict. Collaborative international solutions to environmental issues, i.e., solutions that mobilize and share technology and resources, will build nations and build peace. The military, through preventative engagement will play a more and more important role. Further research and analysis is needed to determine what changes in law and policy should be made to facilitate stable and secure ecomigration on an international scale, over a long timeline.

Parsons, RJ

Strengthening Sovereignty: Security and Sustainability in an Era of Climate Change

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su3091416

Purpose - This paper aims to explore the impact of climate change on yields and yield variances in major rainfed crops and measure possible changes in yields under projected climate changes in different agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India. Although many empirical studies report the influence of climate change on crop yield, only few address the effect on yield variances. Even in such cases, the reported yield variances were obtained through simulation studies rather than from actual observations. In this context, the present study analyzes the impact of climate change on crops yield and yield variance using the observed yields. Design/methodology/approach - The Just-Pope yield function (1978) is used to analyze the impact of climate change on mean yield and variance. The estimated coefficient from Just-Pope yield function and the projected climatic data for the year 2030 are incorporated to capture the projected changes in crop yield and variances. Findings - By the year 2030, the yield of pulses is estimated to decline in all the zones (Northeast, Northwest, Western, Cauvery delta, South and Southern zones), with significant declines in the Northeast zone (6.07 per cent), Cauvery delta zone (3.55 per cent) and South zone (3.54 per cent). Sorghum yield may suffer more in Western zone (2.63 per cent), Southern zone (1.92 per cent) and Northeast zone (1.62 per cent). Moreover, the yield of spiked millet is more likely to decrease in the Southern zone (1.39 per cent), Northeast zone (1.21 per cent) and Cauvery delta zone (0.24 per cent), and the yield of cotton may also decline in the Northeast zone (12.99 per cent), Northwest zone (8.05 per cent) and Western zone (2.10 per cent) of Tamil Nadu, India. Originality/value - The study recommends introducing appropriate crop insurance policies to address possible financial losses to the farmers. Prioritizing area-specific stress-tolerant crop varieties without complementing yield would sustain crops cultivation further.

Arumugam, S; Ashok, KR; Kulshreshtha, SN; Vellangany, I; Govindasamy, R

Yield variability in rainfed crops as influenced by climate variables A micro level investigation into agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-08-2013-0096

Purpose Across societies, gendered climate response decisions remain top-down and have limited progress because the influenced risk dynamics and their interrelations are not adequately understood. This study aims to address this gap by proposing an interdisciplinary innovative method, called women climate vulnerability (WCV) index, for measuring and comparing a diverse range of risks that threaten to undermine the adaptive capacity and resilience of rural women. Design/methodology/approach This paper builds on the literature to identify 12 risk categories across physical, economic and political sectors that affect rural women. These categories and attendant 51 risk indicators form the WCV index. A case study in Ben Tre Province (Vietnam) was used to demonstrate the application of the WCV methodology to rural contexts. The authors combined empirical, survey and secondary data from different sources to form data on the indicators. Structured expert judgment was used to address data gaps. Empirical and expert data were combined using a few weighting steps and a comprehensive coding system was developed to ensure objective evaluation. Findings The WCV assessment results reveal a reasonably worrisome picture of women's vulnerability in Ben Tre as top highest-likelihood and deepest-impact risks predominate in physical and economic risk sectors. Stability, human security and governance categories have lowest scores, demonstrating a fairly politically favourable condition in the province. The medium risk scores captured in land and infrastructure categories reveal promising determinants of the adaptation of women in this rural province. The results demonstrate the usefulness of the WCV index in collecting bottom-up data, evaluating a wide variety of risks that rural women face and pinpointing priority areas that need to be addressed. Originality/value The WCV is systematic, customisable and localised. It combines field research and empirical data through structured expert judgment, thus enables researchers to fill data gaps and to do evidence-based assessment about diverse risk vulnerabilities. By doing so, the WCV index gives critical insights into the challenges that rural women face. This enables local governments to better understand cross-sectoral risks, pinpoint priority areas of action and timely channel funding and policy resources to support women where they need it most.

Quang, NM

A method for measuring women climate vulnerability: a case study in Vietnam's Mekong Delta

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2021-0047

This study reports on projected temperature increases and their likely implication on smallholder farming systems across the northern regions of Ghana. Aggregated climate data from 1961 to 2000 show that the mean annual temperature across Ghana rose by 1.0 degrees C, with the greatest rate of change in the northern-eastern part of the country. For the development of the downscaled climate projection, five regional climate models (RCMs) forced with three global climate models (GCMs) were used from CORDEX and CMIP5, respectively. Eight stations spatially spread across the study locations were selected for the study based on the quality and completeness of data. The study used daily, minimum and maximum temperature station data from 1980 to 2014 obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency. The downsca ling was done for the emission scenarios pathways-Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5-from the selected RCMs using the station data. Time series of minimum and maximum temperatures averaged for the eight stations was analysed from 1961 to 2080. Results indicate temperatures are likely to increase over northern Ghana with minimum air temperature increasing by 0.5 degrees C under RCP 2.6 and 2.5 degrees C under RCP 8.5. Maximum air temperatures are likely to increase by 1 degrees C under RCP 2.6 and 2 degrees C under RCP 8.5 by the year 2080. Warming rates per year for the stations reveal that minimum temperatures are warming faster than maximum temperatures. The 99th percentile, which is a measure of heat waves, shows a close relationship between the minimum temperatures for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 pathways in all the stations except for Wenchi and Bolgatanga. Each pathway has a variation between 22.5 degrees C and 30 degrees C. The lowest projected value of the 99th percentile maximum temperature is 35 degrees C in Wenchi, and the highest projected is above 43 degrees C in Navrongo. Smallholder food crop farming systems are likely to be negatively impacted, with direct risks of low crop yield unless measures like irrigation and careful crop selection are implemented.

Klutse, NAB; Owusu, K; Boafo, YA

Projected temperature increases over northern Ghana

Sn Applied Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1007/s42452-020-3095-3

Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the forces of stability and change of underlying governance arrangements is required. It follows from the path dependency literature that countries which rely strongly on flood infrastructures, as part of flood defense strategies, would be more path dependent. Consequently there is a higher chance to find more incremental change in these countries than in countries that have a more diversified set of strategies. However, comparative and detailed empirical studies that may help scrutinize this assumption are lacking. To address this knowledge gap, this paper investigates how six European countries (Belgium, England, France, The Netherlands, Poland and Sweden) essentially differ with regard to their governance of flood risks. To analyze stability and change, we focus on how countries are responding to certain societal and ecological driving forces (ecological turn; climate change discourses; European policies; and the increasing prevalence of economic rationalizations) that potentially affect the institutional arrangements for flood risk governance. Taking both the variety of flood risk governance in countries and their responses to driving forces into account, we can clarify the conditions of stability or change of flood risk governance arrangements more generally. The analysis shows that the national-level impact of driving forces is strongly influenced by the flood risk governance arrangements in the six countries. Path dependencies are indeed visible in countries with high investments in flood infrastructure accompanied by strongly institutionalized governance arrangements (Poland, the Netherlands) but not only there. Also more diversified countries that are less dependent on flood infrastructure and flood defense only (England) show path dependencies and mostly incremental change. More substantial changes are visible in countries that show moderate diversification of strategies (Belgium, France) or countries that 'have no strong path yet' in comprehensive flood risk governance (Sweden). This suggests that policy change can be expected when there is both the internal need and will to change and a barrage of (external) driving forces pushing for change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wiering, M; Kaufmann, M; Mees, H; Schellenberger, T; Ganzevoort, W; Hegger, DLT; Larrue, C; Matczak, P

Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe: How do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.006

Purpose The conceptual root of vulnerability dates back to the 1970s in the social science spheres. Vulnerability is a multi-dimensional and determinant precondition for disaster occurrence. The Gamo lowlands are exposed to a wide range of vulnerabilities. Therefore, this study aims to schematize community perceptions and understanding of vulnerability in drought-affected rural Gamo lowlands. Design/methodology/approach A community-based cross-sectional survey design and the mixed-methods research approach were executed. A four-staged multistage sampling was used to identify the respondent households. Into the four study sites, sample households were allocated proportionally by the lottery method. The survey data were gathered from 285 lowland households. The structured survey questionnaire, key informant interview, focus group discussion, and field observations, and transect walks were the tools used to collect the primary data. Data were analyzed deploying both qualitative and quantitative techniques. The Likert scale is used to analyze households' vulnerability perceptions in which the item analysis approach was used for detailed analysis of the Likert-type items. Findings Locally, people perceive and understand vulnerability as exposure to drought hazard, rainfall inconsistency, the prevalence of human and animal diseases, livelihood insecurity, food shortfalls, poor income, lack of access to market, landholding and livestock ownership which are schematized by vulnerability perception pathways that delineate its extent. The findings also showed that the Gamo lowland inhabitants are unequally vulnerable as 96.5% of the studied households stated the differential idiosyncrasy of vulnerability. Old-aged, small-sized and female-headed households with no supportive force were found to be more vulnerable. Practical implications For better resilience, enhancing communities' perceptions and understanding of vulnerability via continuous awareness creation by all the concerned stakeholders is recommended as the majority was lowly educated. It also yields input for policy debates and decision-making in the drought-prone lowland setup for building a resilient community. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is an original work pursued by using a household survey with empirical data sourced from drought-prone rural lowland communities.

Tora, TT; Degaga, DT; Utallo, AU

Schematizing vulnerability perceptions and understanding of drought-prone Gamo lowland communities: an evidence from Southwest Ethiopia

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2021-0034

Purpose - Climate change has several impacts on people's lives, directly or indirectly, and displacement is one such indirect effect. The purpose of this paper is to bring this fact to light, as Bangladesh is going to face severe problems due to the displacement of population predicted by researchers. Design/methodology/approach - This paper is an outcome of a through study of Bogi village in the southwestern coastal region of Bangladesh. Several factors such as demographic conditions, natural disasters, land loss and changes in landuse pattern. have been taken into consideration. Methods used for data collection were questionnaire survey and focus group discussions in the study area. The nature and extent of displacement are found by comparing the changes in occupation, location of settlement and permanent migration of family members. Findings - Populations growth rate decreased in recent years as the annual rate for both sexes was 0.89 in between 1991 and 2001 but in recent years, from 2001 to 2005, it was 0.63, which is a clear indication that the natural growth is hampered or a major proportion of the population is migrating. On the other hand, 361 hectors of land were lost throughout the last 18 years. As a result, 93 percent of people in that area were forced to move to other places for at least one time in their life. The major reason of displacement found was loss of land and occupation caused by cyclone, storm surge and erosion. Practical implications - the study findings depict scenarios of rural urban migration doe to disasters and critically found out the sectors to be addressed. The study can be a representative of the condition of almost all the remote coastal region and may work as a hammering tool to formulate strategic options to deal with the environmental issues and socio-economic situation. Originality/value - Sophisticated but commonly used methods and techniques have been used to find out the problems associated with climate change and disasters in the coastal belt. the study has taken an initiative to identify climate change impacts at micro level in the basis of spatial and non-spatial attributes. They was this study was conducted can be a popular path to put future researches on a human-oriented tract.

Salauddin, M; Ashikuzzaman, M

Nature and extent of population displacement due to climate change triggered disasters in south-western coastal region of Bangladesh

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/17568691211200218

Calls for transformative adaptation to climate change require attention to the type of capacity building that can support it. Community-level capacity building can help to ensure ownership and legitimacy of longer-term interventions. Given that marginalized communities are highly vulnerable to climate risk, it is important to build their capacity to adapt locally and to integrate their perspectives into higher-level adaptation measures. Current adaptation policy does not pay sufficient attention to this. Using a Cape Town-based project on water governance in low-income urban settlements, this paper explores how a transdisciplinary research project supported capacity building. Our findings suggest that knowledge co-creation at the community level is central to the capacity building that is needed in order to inform transformative adaptation. The collaborative methodology used is also important; we illustrate how a transdisciplinary approach can contribute to transformative adaptation where knowledge is co-produced to empower community-level actors and organizations to assert their perspectives with greater confidence and legitimacy. We argue that if capacity building processes shift from the top-down transferal of existing knowledge to the co-creation of contextual understandings, they have the potential to deliver more transformative adaptation. By considering diverse sources of knowledge and knowledge systems, capacity building can start to confront inequalities and shift dominant power dynamics. Adaptation policy could provide more guidance and support for community-level transdisciplinary processes that can enable this type of transformative adaptation. Key policy insights To address equity and justice issues as well as climate risk, adaptation policy needs to better support transformative adaptation. Community-level capacity building, called for by developing countries, will benefit from more attention to bottom-up approaches as a complement to top-down ones. Community-led research that draws on a diversity of knowledge systems can effectively inform the development of transformative adaptation interventions. Transdisciplinary research methods present a promising pedagogical approach to building transformative adaptation capacity. Adaptation policy for capacity building would benefit from a broader understanding of governance that includes local participation and values bottom-up contributions. A priority for capacity building is getting previously excluded actors a spot at the negotiating table as well as skills to substantiate their arguments.

Ziervogel, G; Enqvist, J; Metelerkamp, L; van Breda, J

Supporting transformative climate adaptation: community-level capacity building and knowledge co-creation in South Africa

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1863180

The influence of growing season rainfall on agricultural production is indisputable. In Morocco, the production of crops such as barley, maize, and wheat is impacted by growing season rainfall. Due to persistent gaps in growing season rainfall and other drivers of crop yield, crops have experienced observed yields that are often below projected or potential yields. However, there are currently no studies that have quantified these gaps in yield and growing season rainfall in Morocco. To achieve this objective, time-series crop yield for all three crops and growing season rainfall data for the period 1991-2020 were collected from FAOSTAT and the World Bank climate portal, respectively. Growing season rainfall and crop yield data for the spatial variations were culled from System National de Suivi Agrometeorologique (GCMS) and the yield gaps atlas, respectively, for the same historical period. The data were subjected to bias correction to handle uncertainty. The projected/simulated crop yields and growing season rainfall were computed by regression analysis. Crop yield and growing season rainfall gaps were determined by establishing the difference between the projected and observed crop yields and rainfall data. The results show that observed and simulated wheat have a stronger relationship when compared to the other crops. Also, most years with crop yield gaps are associated with growing season rainfall gaps. Wheat records the lowest number of years with yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps during the entire data series. Therefore, even though yield gaps are strongly tied to growing season rainfall gaps, it is not the case for wheat, and therefore other drivers might be important because wheat has the lowest number of years with crop yield gaps and the highest number of years with growing season rainfall gaps. Spatially, yield and growing season rainfall gaps decline with increased latitude. The broader perspective and policy implication here is that a better understanding of yield and growing season rainfall gaps mandates an understanding of growing season rainfall and other drivers of yield. As a way forward, potential research should focus on identifying the drivers of yield gaps, sub-national experimentation at the plot level as well as on closing yield gaps through water and nutrient management.

Epule, TE; Chehbouni, A; Dhiba, D; Etongo, D; Achli, S; Salih, W; Er-Raki, S

Identifying gaps in actual and simulated/potential yield and growing season precipitation in Morocco

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-21671-3

Climate change-related natural disasters, including wildfires and extreme weather events, such as intense storms, floods, and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and intensity. These events are already profoundly affecting human health in the United States and globally, challenging the ability of communities to prepare, respond, and recover. The purpose of this research was to examine the peer-reviewed literature on community resilience initiatives in one of the most densely populated and economically important regions, the Northeastern United States, and to identify evidence-based interventions and metrics that had been field-tested and evaluated. This paper addresses two critical gaps in the literature: (1) what strategies or interventions have been implemented to build or enhance community resilience against climate change-related natural disasters; and (2) what metrics were used to measure community resilience as an outcome of those strategies or interventions? This review provides a succinct list of effective interventions with specific health outcomes. Community or state-level health officials can use the results to prioritize public health interventions. This review used existing database search tools to discover 205 studies related to community resilience and health outcomes. Methods set criteria to assess if interventions were able to measure and change levels of community resilience to the health impacts associated with a changing climate. Criteria included: (a) alignment with the United States' National Preparedness Goal for reducing risks to human health and for recovering quickly from disasters; (b) derived from publicly available data sources; (c) developed for use by communities at a local scale; and (d) accessible to modestly resourced municipalities and county health agencies. Five (5) peer-reviewed, evidence-based studies met all of the selection criteria. Three of these articles described intervention frameworks and two reported on the use of standardized tools. Health-related outcomes included mental health impacts (PTSD/depression), mental stress, emergency preparedness knowledge, social capital skills, and emergency planning skills. The paper recommends the COAST project, COPEWELL Rubric for self-assessment, and Ready CDC intervention as examples of strategies that could be adapted by any community engaged in building community resilience.

Walton, AA; Marr, J; Cahillane, MJ; Bush, K

Building Community Resilience to Disasters: A Review of Interventions to Improve and Measure Public Health Outcomes in the Northeastern United States

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su132111699

Water issues in Mexico City have been severe during the last years due to population increase, forcing external water sources to meet water demands. This research aims to evaluate the evolution of water vulnerability in the sixteen municipalities of Mexico City in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015. This vulnerability has increased in the last decades due to the combination of several problems such as lack of maintenance in the water infrastructure (eg. water leaks), aquifer overexploitation, uncontrolled city growth, rainwater and wastewater expelled from the basin without the intention of using it. For the vulnerability assessment we used a combination of indicators that respond to its three dimensions: 1). Exposure (urbanization, population, and economic units), 2). Sensitivity (reports of leaks, shortages, and poor water quality) and 3). Adaptive capacity (wastewater treatment, water availability, and GDP). The municipalities identified with very high vulnerability in the three years of study (2005, 2010, and 2015) were Iztapalapa, Gustavo A. Madero, and Tlalpan joined these during 2015. In contrast, those with the lowest vulnerability were Milpa Alta, Magdalena Contreras, and Cuajimalpa; the latter stepped down from having Low to Very Low vulnerability between 2005 and 2010-2015. Between these two classifications, we have the Municipalities that reveal high, moderate, and low vulnerability. The results highlight that all municipalities must prevent water leaks to achieve increasingly sustainable management of the liquid, especially Gustavo A. Madero, Iztapalapa, and Tlalpan. Suggesting that harmonized action among all of them will help accelerate goal achievement. Still, citizen action will play a leading role in maintaining care and water usage levels when promoted and encouraged adequately. At the end of the lecture, the reader would be able to discuss if a series of social elements (like the indicators proposed in this work) construct water vulnerability or depend on the quantity of water the cities receive. Also, they will understand their role in water management and have factors to evaluate vulnerability in other regions.

Huerta-Vergara, AR; Arciniega-Esparza, S; Pedrozo-Acuña, A; Matus-Kramer, A; Vega-López, E

Assessment of vulnerability to water shortage in the municipalities of Mexico City

Boletin De La Sociedad Geologica Mexicana

https://doi.org/10.18268/BSGM2022v74n1a071021

O.R. Tambo District is vulnerable to the effects of drought, given the social and economic circumstances of residents in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa. The communal farmers of O.R. Tambo District engage in crop and livestock farming activities in pursuit of their livelihoods. Economic reliance on agriculture and the depletion of resources increase their vulnerability to drought. The lack of adequate resources to prepare for and respond to drought has led to high drought vulnerability. The main aim of this study is to analyse the perception of communal farmers towards drought. This study is based on primary data collected from 87 communal farmers following a structured questionnaire survey, purposive sampling method procedures, and the creation of a perception index. The results revealed that perceptions held by communal farmers indicate that (i) they receive inadequate government support for drought risk reduction, (ii) they do not consider social networks as being effectively involved in drought risk reduction, (iii) there is a system of gender stereotyping among the farmers with discrimination against women, (iv) psychological stress affects their farm activities, and (v) they experience high levels of stock theft and insecurity in their farming. The study recommends that there should be coordination and collaboration among all role players. This includes coordination between monitoring agencies in terms of reliable early warning data, communicated in a comprehensive way to decision-makers, farmer's organisations and private sector. Collaboration with government departments at national and provincial level should also be strengthened. This includes collaboration with the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) at national level, provincial Departments of Agriculture, National and Provincial Disaster Management Centres (NDMC and PDMC), Department of Water Affairs (DWA), South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the South African Police Service (SAPS). This coordination and collaboration will help to strengthen strategies which target enhancing communal farmers' awareness of the importance of social networking, role of government, level of security, stress and gender equality. The result of this study will directly contribute to the development of South African drought plan which is currently under formulation.

Bahta, YT; Jordaan, A; Muyambo, F

Communal farmers' perception of drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.10.007

Assessing the magnitude of smallholder farmers' livelihood vulnerability to drought is an initial step in identifying the causal factors and proposing interventions that mitigate the impacts of drought. This study aimed to assess smallholders' livelihood vulnerability to the drought in the upper Awash sub-basin, Ethiopia. Household (HH) and climate data were used for indicators related to sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity that define vulnerability to drought. The vulnerability of farmers' livelihood to drought was compared among the studies agroecological zone (AEZ) and farm typologies. The result illustrated a diverse magnitude of vulnerability index (VI) ranging from -1.956 to -4.253 for AEZ. The highest magnitude of VI was estimated for livelihood in the lowland AEZ, while the lowest magnitude of VI was estimated in midland AEZ. This could be accounted for by the fact that lowland farmers shown the highest exposure (0.432) and sensitivity (0.420) and the lowest adaptive capacity (0.288). A closer look at farmers' livelihood typology, in each of the AEZ, showed substantial diversity of farmers' livelihood vulnerability to drought, implying potential aggregations at AEZ. Accordingly, the vulnerability index for livestock and on-farm-income-based livelihood and marginal and off-farm-income-based livelihood typologies were higher than the intensive-irrigation-farming-based smallholders' livelihood typology. Based on the result, we concluded that procedures for smallholders' livelihood resilience-building efforts should better target AEZ to prioritize the focus region and farmers' livelihood typology to tailor technologies to farms. Although the result emphasizes the importance of irrigation-based livelihood strategy, the overall enhancement of farmers adaptive capacity needs to focus on action areas such as reducing the sensitivity and exposure of the households, improving farmers usage of technologies, diversify farmers' livelihood options, and, hence, long-term wealth accumulation to strengthen farmers' adaptive capacity toward drought impacts.

Maru, H; Haileslassie, A; Zeleke, T; Esayas, B

Analysis of Smallholders' Livelihood Vulnerability to Drought across Agroecology and Farm Typology in the Upper Awash Sub-Basin, Ethiopia

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179764

The Indo-Pacific is a region of the world experiencing rapid growth in population and development. However, it is also exposed to a number of social, economic, geopolitical, and biophysical stressors, which may undermine the region's ability to support its population, ensure food security, and sustain livelihoods. In response to the complex suite of stressors, a number of development initiatives and research programs have been established to build resilience in the region's food systems. These initiatives vary in scope and scale, but also in what they mean by the term resilience and the components of the food system they address. This variation has implications for the outcomes of these efforts and how well they match a theoretical ideal of resilience. This review examines how resilience and food systems are defined, conceptualized, and applied within research studies and projects or initiatives on food systems resilience funded or supported by national, regional, or multilateral government, and non-governmental institutions in the Indo-Pacific region. It also compares how the concepts are treated from an academic or theoretical perspective vs. in practical applications. We take a two-pronged approach: first, identifying organizations engaged in the Indo-Pacific region and developing an inventory of initiatives and projects that have bearing on food systems resilience; and second, carrying out literature searches to record research studies in the region that examine resilience within food systems. We then identify any formalized frameworks or definitions of resilience and/or food systems guiding these projects and studies. The results indicate there is a heavy focus on climate change and natural disasters, and to a lesser extent health-related shocks, in food systems resilience research and practice. Definitions, however, are inconsistently reported, and are often more simplistic than resilience theory depicts, favoring resilience conceptualizations around adaptation and a production-oriented food systems framing. While the specific definitions vary between research and applied projects, the fragmented and ambiguous use of terms presents a challenge for policy applications and coordination. Overall, establishing some clear guiding resilience principles, modified according to contextual factors, could enable more streamlined resilience work in Indo-Pacific food systems.

Friedman, RS; England, RM; Ricketts, KD; van Wensveen, M; Lim-Camacho, L; Crimp, S

Scanning Models of Food Systems Resilience in the Indo-Pacific Region

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.714881

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely changed the world economy and jeopardized the im-plementation of Sustainable Development Goals on a large scale. Progress in meeting the goals of the 2030 Agenda has been significantly disrupted and stalled, undermining previous efforts of governments and nations. Furthermore, the economic slowdown of the global economy as an effect of COVID-19 has not improved the situation of climate change. The side effects of the pandemic are serious in every sphere of life, especially in the exacerbation of existing so-cial inequalities, which results in threatening the achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).The aim of this article is to present the current status of SDG implementation with reference to the 2030 Agenda. Furthermore, it will examine the impact of COVID-19 on the progress of SDGs on a global scale, focusing mainly on the statistics from the Sustainable Development Re- port 2021. The purpose of the study is also to describe the results of the analysis that examines the major effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on European countries, including Central and East-ern European Countries (CEECs), in terms of the implementation of SDGs. The study is limited to the context of Goal 1 (No poverty), Goal 2 (Zero hunger) and Goal 3 (Good health and well-be-ing). Another purpose, recognized as the added value of the research, is to identify the main chal-lenges related to sustainable development while implementing the SDGs in the CEECs. Finally, the author investigates the post-COVID priorities and pandemic strategic response plans. The research methods include an analysis of available documentary and literary sources on the top-ics in question, based on the development of relevant statistical surveys, and the deductive ap-proach, to draw conclusions from the reports of international organizations. The research was based on the global indicator framework, which includes 231 unique indicators that monitored the stage and progress of the SDGs' implementation. Global SDG Indicators Data Platform (SDG Indicators Database) was the source of data.

Rydz-Zbikowska, A

Implementing Sustainable Development Goals within the COVID-19 Pandemic Future Challenges for the 2030 Agenda

Comparative Economic Research-Central And Eastern Europe

https://doi.org/10.18778/1508-2008.25.33

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of pricing due to greater susceptibility to climate vagaries. The livelihood and poverty results highlight the importance of the holistic consideration of the human-nature system and the careful selection of poverty indicators. Although the simulation model at this stage contains the minimum elements required to simulate the complexity of farmer livelihood interactions in coastal Bangladesh, the crop and socio-economic findings compare well with expected behaviours. The presented integrated model is the first step to develop a holistic, transferable analytic method and tool for coastal Bangladesh.

Lázár, AN; Clarke, D; Adams, H; Akanda, AR; Szabo, S; Nicholls, RJ; Matthews, Z; Begum, D; Saleh, AFM; Abedin, MA; Payo, A; Streatfield, PK; Hutton, C; Mondal, MS; Moslehuddin, AZM

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change - a model framework

Environmental Science-Processes & Impacts

https://doi.org/10.1039/c4em00600c

Climate induced disasters, more specifically floods, have caused severe damage to the agriculture sector in Pakistan. These climatic risks have constrained the farming community to adopt risk management strategies to overcome such climate change risks. This research work attempted to examine the association of risk management tools with farmers' perception of risk, risk averse attitude, and various socioeconomic factors. The study has employed the sample data of 398 farmers from two high-risk flood-prone districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The multivariate probit model was used in this study to investigate the association of dependent and independent variables. The findings of the study indicated that small farmers consider heavy rains and floods severe risks to their agricultural production and are more risk averse than large farmers. Estimates of a multivariate probit model interpreted as age of farmer (0.036), heavy rains risk perception (0.597), and landholding size (0.114) were positively related with the risk management tool of depletion of assets. Farmers' education (0.056), off-farm income (3.47), age (0.018), and risk averse attitude of farmer (0.687) were positive, whereas experience of farming (-0.037) was negatively linked with reduction of consumption. Furthermore, experience of farming (0.005), risk averse attitude (0.493), heavy rains (0.481), and flood risk perception (0.536) were positively related with diversification adoption. The flood-prone farming community is more vulnerable to these climatic risks and rely on traditional strategies for risk management. There is a need to adopt crop diversification based on developing research capacity for innovative crop varieties having resistance to floods and climate change affects. Some significant policy measures, such as a more resilient scenario of climate change and floods, need to stimulate activities of enterprise diversification, opportunities of diversifying employment, and strengthening activities of off-farm employment for the sound livelihood of flood-prone farmers and to minimize severe affects of climatic risks.

Ahmad, D; Afzal, M

Flood hazards and agricultural production risks management practices in flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17182-2

This paper offers a systematic analysis of the concepts and contexts that frame the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) discourse in the academic and policy literature. Documents (n=113) related to CSA and published in peer-reviewed journals, books, working papers, and scientific reports from 2004 to 2016 were reviewed. Three key trends emerged from the analysis: studies are biased towards global policy agendas; research focuses on scientific and technical issues; and the integration of mitigation, adaptation, and food security (the three pillars of CSA) is becoming a popular scholarly solution. Findings suggest that CSA is a fairly new concept used to describe a range of adaptation and mitigation practices without a specific set of criteria. Although CSA is often framed around the three pillars, the underlying issues constructing the discourse differ at global, developing, and developed country scales. Although there is increasing research on developing countries, particularly in relation to how CSA can transform smallholder agriculture, there is a paucity of research documenting the experiences from developed countries. The findings suggest that research on CSA needs to move beyond solely focussing on scientific approaches and only in certain geographical contexts. If CSA is to be applicable for farmers across the globe, then cross-disciplinary research that is underpinned by broad socio-economic and political contexts is essential to understand how differences in narratives might affect implementation on-the-ground in both developing and developed countries.POLICY RELEVANCEAlthough policy makers are increasingly supportive of the climate-smart agriculture (CSA) approach, the rhetoric has largely been developed on the basis of scientific and technical arguments. The political implications of varying perspectives have resulted in a growing divide between how developing and developed countries frame solutions to the impacts of climate change on agriculture under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Different framings are part of the explanation for why the scope of CSA is being rethought, with the scientific community redirecting attention to seeking a separate work programme under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The current policy framing of CSA will give no new policy direction unless it grounds itself in the smallholder farmer and civil society contexts.

Chandra, A; McNamara, KE; Dargusch, P

Climate-smart agriculture: perspectives and framings

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1316968

Livelihood systems of nomadic duck herders make a unique study subject due to the livelihood assets, strategies, and outcomes they manage, which involve interactions with various actors that keep moving around. Social capital the duck herders build in their interaction with other actors, namely rice farmers, play an important role to face different vulnerability context, including those brought by the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to characterize components of bonding, bridging and linking social capital in the context of relationships between duck herders and other actors, and seeks to find the essential role of the combination of the three types of social capital for livelihood outcomes, particularly in facing vulnerabilities due to the pandemic. The method of grounded theory research was applied for its ability to allow researchers to reveal processual relationships between duck herders and other actors. Data were collected through semi structured interviews, analyzed by open, axial, and selective coding. The duck herders combine components of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital selectively depending on the interests behind each interaction with different actors. The bridging and linking role that social capital plays in herders' interactions with farmers and irrigation officials is undertaken in order to gain access to natural capital (rice fields and irrigated water), while in their interaction with egg traders, they utilize bridging social capital to gain access to financial capital (in the form of cash and loans). The vulnerability context due to the pandemic has shaken the livelihood system of the duck herders by upsetting the egg supply chain due to social restriction policies. Social capital therefore plays an important role in facing vulnerability, in the context of forming good will among egg traders that continued to buy eggs from the duck herders, which served as a kind of pay back for the loyalty of the duck herders. We find that social capital plays a vital role in a livelihood system, within which the access to livelihood assets depend on social relations. This study also explored the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as it resonates more on supply chains than production processes.

Salman, D; Kasim, K; Ahmad, A; Sirimorok, N

Combination of Bonding, Bridging and Linking Social Capital in a Livelihood System: Nomadic Duck Herders Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic in South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Forest And Society

https://doi.org/10.24259/fs.v5i1.11813

There is a growing appreciation for the value of collaborative research projects involving local Indigenous and visiting non-Indigenous researchers. Examples of such partnerships are now numerous and diverse, and best practices and respectful approaches have been well presented, including the five priorities of the National Inuit Strategy on Research (NISR) defined by Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami in Canada. However, the application of best practices remains challenging, and examples of 'on-the-ground' implementation remain scarce in the literature.We present a practical case study in which scientists from the Federal Department of Environment and Climate Change Canada and Inuit have co-delivered a multidecade-long monitoring program of nesting common eider ducks Somateria mollissima in the Arctic. We review our experience as southern-based government researchers in this collaboration. We reflect on successes and, more importantly, on the practical challenges that prevent the full implementation of best practices in our program.First, we highlight challenges to co-designing a data collection protocol that combines both Indigenous and Western scientific methods. We show how combining the strengths of Inuit Knowledge and rigorous random sampling design has led to a more powerful approach to eider population monitoring.Second, we review how the federal government's administrative approaches are poorly suited for employing seasonal Indigenous workers living in remote communities, particularly in Canada. We argue that to deliver respectful employment and payment practices, the financial and hiring administration of collaborative projects must be based at the community level.Finally, we show how sociocultural factors have made it challenging to ensure the safety of all field workers consistently. To increase their perceived value and uptake, we suggest that safety guidelines must be co-designed by visiting researchers and local partners for each project to ensure that they are appropriate to the local culture, field conditions, and the nature of the fieldwork.Based on our experience, we draw attention to gaps that still exist between the best practices of collaborative research and factors that hamper their practical implementation. We invite other research teams to do the same so that, collectively, we can improve collaborative approaches nationally and internationally.

Richard, S; Gilchrist, HG; Hennin, HL; Nguyen, VM

Collaboration between local Indigenous and visiting non-Indigenous researchers: Practical challenges and insights from a long-term environmental monitoring program in the Canadian Arctic

Ecological Solutions And Evidence

https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-8319.12258

Practical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of holistic landscape planning is limited because comprehensive decision-making is misunderstood as depriving individual sectors' authority and budgets. The author compared two municipalities' difference of recovery speed and the quality of relocation housing; Shinchi town and Soma city, which are this project subjects, had contrasting planning processes from 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami disaster. Shinch town has recovered by bottom-up the planning process and the author's natural disaster risk analysis, which based on 1969's McHarg's landscape planning principle. Whereas, Soma city has recovered by the top-down planning process, which was the same method as other municipalities affected by the tsunami. In this test, 263 students evaluated relocation houses' prices without any information about differences of the planning process. The author analyzed subjects' attribute data that could potentially affect their evaluation: sex, the environment in childhood, etc. T-test and multiple regression analysis were performed to evaluate the effects of differences of the planning process for the value of the house. Welch's T-test found the mean of relocation residential WTP ($). Shinchi town's house (mean=$185400) was significantly higher than that of Soma city (mean=$157680. t=15.9, p<2.2e-16 (two-tailed), d.f.=3622.1), $1=(sic) 100). Multiple linear regression was calculated to predict [WTP], based on [USP: Under Shinchi town planning process] and [VDD: Volunteer or donation to a disaster area]. (Predicted WTP is equal to [150200] + [+27700] ([USP]) + [+8176] ([VDD]). [USP] is coded as [Shinchi:1 or Soma:0], and [VDD] is coded as [Yes:1, No:0].). These findings can help us in recovery planning from disasters.

Uehara, M

HOLISTIC LANDSCAPE PLANNING'S VALUE FOR NATURAL DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION: WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR NEW RESIDENCE IN DIFFERENT RECONSTRUCTION PLANNING APPROACHES

International Journal Of Geomate

https://doi.org/10.21660/2019.56.4601

Coastal hazards, particularly cyclones, floods, erosion and storm surges, are emerging as a cause for major concern in the coastal regions of Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh, India. Serious coastal disaster events have become more common in recent decades, triggering substantial destruction to the low-lying coastal areas and a high death toll. Further, women living in informal and slum housing along the Vijayawada coastline of Andhra Pradesh (CAP), India, suffer from multiple social, cultural and economic inequalities as well. These conditions accelerate and worsen women's vulnerability among this coastal population. The existing literature demonstrates these communities' susceptibility to diverse coastal disasters but fails to offer gender-specific vulnerability in urban informal housing in the Vijayawada area. Accordingly, the current study developed a novel gender-specific Women's Coastal Vulnerability Index (WCVI) to assess the impact of coastal disasters on women and their preparedness in Vijayawada. Field data was collected from over 300 women through surveys (2) and workshops (2) between November 2018 and June 2019, and Arc-GIS tools were used to generate vulnerability maps. Results show that women are more vulnerable than men, with a higher death rate during coastal disaster strikes. The current study also found that gender-specific traditional wear is one of the main factors for this specific vulnerability in this area. Furthermore, the majority of the women tend to be located at home to care for the elders and children, and this is associated with more fatalities during disaster events. Homes, particularly for the urban poor, are typically very small and located in narrow and restricted sites, which are a barrier for women to escape from unsafe residential areas during disasters. Overall, the research reveals that most of the coastal disaster events had a disproportionately negative impact on women. The results from this present study offer valuable information to aid evidence-based policy- and decision-makers to improve existing or generate innovative policies to save women's lives and improve their livelihood in coastal areas.

Kantamaneni, K; Panneer, S; Rani, NNVS; Palaniswamy, U; Bhat, LD; Jimenez-Bescos, C; Rice, L

Impact of Coastal Disasters on Women in Urban Slums: A New Index

Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063472

Climate change vulnerability assessment is a technique used to identify vulnerable areas for adaptation planning. This study focuses on developing a conceptual framework to assess and map the vulnerability of the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka to climate change at Divisional Secretariat (DS), an administrative level. Vulnerability indices were formulated based on the definition of vulnerability by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Data were collected from secondary sources and aggregated using a composite index. The index was further expanded by two methods to include the impacts of neighbouring DS divisions, considering the mean vulnerability index (VI) of neighbours and maximum VI among neighbours. A two-third was taken as the contribution from the own DS while one-third was accounted for the surrounding DS divisions for the final vulnerability index. The study identified a considerable spatial variability in vulnerability. Agriculture sector in Northern and Eastern, Northwestern parts of the country and Southwestern part of the wet zone are the most vulnerable to drought. About 50% of area in the wet zone and Northern and Eastern coasts were identified as the most vulnerable to floods while Central highlands are vulnerable to landslides. Vulnerability of agriculture for cyclones has spread throughout the dry zone except few areas. Neighbourhood analysis using the mean vulnerability index (VI) of neighbours (N) shows that the agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to droughts (D), floods (F), landslides (L), cyclones (C) in the DS divisions of Galgamauwa (VIDNAvg is1), Manmunai West (VIFNAvg is 0.84), Akurana (VILNAvg is 0.85), Kuchchaveli (VICNAvg is 0.83), respectively, and to all types of disaster in Manmunai West (VINAvg is 0.62) DS division. This study indicates that the characteristics of the neighbours are a vital factor in determining the vulnerability status of an area of interest. Since vulnerability assessments are useful in policy formulations and launching development projects, these assessments should include the influence of neighbours.

Wickramasinghe, MRCP; De Silva, RP; Dayawansa, NDK

Climate Change Vulnerability in Agriculture Sector: An Assessment and Mapping at Divisional Secretariat Level in Sri Lanka

Earth Systems And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-021-00206-9

We can expect climate change to alter the frequency, magnitude, timing, and location of many natural hazards. For example, heat waves are likely to become more frequent, and heavy downpours and flooding more common and more intense. Hurricanes will likely grow more dangerous, rising sea levels will mean more coastal flooding, and more-frequent and more intense droughts will produce more wildfires. Children, particularly the poor and those in developing countries, are at risk. Carolyn Kousky considers three ways that natural disasters may harm children disproportionately, often with long-lasting effects. First, disasters can damage children's physical health. Children may be injured or killed, but they may also suffer from such things as malnutrition caused by disruptions in food supply or diarrheal illness caused by contaminated water. Moreover, disasters can cut off access to medical care, even for non-disaster-related illnesses. Second, disasters can cause mental health problems. Not only are disasters themselves stressful and frightening, but children can suffer psychological harm from the damage to their homes and possessions; from migration; from the grief of losing loved ones; from seeing parents or caregivers undergo stress; from neglect and abuse; and from breakdowns in social networks, neighborhoods, and local economies. Third, disasters can interrupt children's education by displacing families, destroying schools, and pushing children into the labor force to help their families make ends meet in straitened times. How can we mitigate the dangers to children even as disasters become more powerful and more frequent? For one thing, we can prepare for disasters before they strike, for example, by strengthening school buildings and houses. Kousky also describes actions that have been proven to help children after a disaster, such as quickly reuniting them with parents and caregivers. Finally, a range of policies not designed for disasters can nonetheless help mitigate the harm disasters cause children and their families. In fact, Kousky writes, using existing safety net programs may be easier, faster, and more effective than creating entirely new programs after a disaster occurs.

Kousky, C

Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children

Future Of Children

https://doi.org/10.1353/foc.2016.0004

This study provides guidelines for strategic management in industrial oil plants linked to uncertainties of climate change through the development of integrated planning methodology with focus on coastal flooding events caused by relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research site is in Redonda Island, located in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil, and since 1960, it constitutes an industrial oil plant facility. The region suffers interaction with storms and meteorological tides from extratropical cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean, being vulnerable to risks of disasters, floods, and coastal erosion. A Program on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Relative Sea Level Rise (Programa de Avalia double dagger o e Adapta double dagger o A s Vulnerabilidades de Eleva double dagger o do Nivel Relativo do Mar-PAAVENRM) was developed to avoid compromising the regional and local development in the industrial system of the island, which is an ad hoc instrument designed to anticipate and reduce risks, damages, and losses by occurrence of extreme climatic events in coastal areas prone to flooding caused by RSLR. Results from computer simulation modeling indicate 37 prospective qualitative scenarios that consolidate the conditions of future climate vulnerability of the plant, starting from United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) information for RSLR up to 2100. Three quantitative forecasting scenarios were simulated, under boundary conditions preset for different altimetric ranges subject to submersion, based upon ordinary and extraordinary tides measured in the area in relation to RSLR, which allowed the evaluation of the industrial infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, three thematic maps were elaborated for the planning of specific coastal protection interventions. Percentages of physical damage and property losses were estimated. The importance of applying guidelines for medium and long-term corporate strategy management, integrating the risk of flooding, the rigging of civil defense systems, meteorology, and of the plans, programs, and existing systems and others to be developed is highlighted. From this perspective, the proposed scenarios help to identify the most relevant alternatives for mitigation and adaptation under technical criteria for decision making in the study area.

Lacerda, GBM; Silva, C; Pimenteira, CAP; Kopp, RV; Grumback, R; Rosa, LP; de Freitas, MAV

Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9459-x

We consider the question of what is needed for climate services to support sub-Saharan African farmers' adaptation needs at the scale of the climate challenge. Consistent with an earlier assessment that mutually reinforcing supply-side and demand-side capacity constraints impede the development of effective climate services in Africa, our discussion of strategies for scaling up practices that meet farmers' needs, and opportunities to address long-standing obstacles, is organized around: (a) meeting farmers' climate information needs; (b) supporting access, understanding and use; and (c) co-production of services. A widespread gap between available information and farmers' needs is associated with entrenched seasonal forecast convention and obstacles to using observational data. Scalable innovations for producing more locally relevant historical and forecast climate information for farm decision-making are beginning to be adopted. Structured participatory communication processes help farmers relate complex climate information to their experience, and integrate it into their management decisions. Promising efforts to deliver rural climate services strategically combine communication channels that include participatory processes embedded in existing agricultural advisory systems, and innovations in interactive broadcast media. Efforts to engage farmers in co-production of climate services improve delivery to farmers and dialogue among stakeholders, but often with little impact on the usability of available information. We discuss challenges and options for capturing farmers' evolving demands, and aggregating and incorporating this information into iterative improvements to climate services at a national scale. We find evidence that key weaknesses in the supply and the demand sides of climate services continue to reinforce each other to impede progress toward meeting farmers' needs at scale across Africa. Six recommendations target these weaknesses: (1) change the way seasonal forecasts are produced and presented regionally and nationally, (2) use merged gridded data as a foundation for national climate information products, (3) remove barriers to using historical data as a public good, (4) mobilize those who work on the demand side of climate services as an effective community of practice, (5) collectively assess and improve tools and processes for communicating climate information with rural communities, and (6) build iterative co-production processes into national climate service frameworks.

Hansen, JW; Vaughan, C; Kagabo, DM; Dinku, T; Carr, ER; Körner, J; Zougmoré, RB

Climate Services Can Support African Farmers' Context-Specific Adaptation Needs at Scale

Frontiers In Sustainable Food Systems

https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2019.00021

Although the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is widely commendable in several ways, access to the Fund has been very challenging for many African countries. Using GCF published statistics, we identify possible challenges likely to be responsible for this. First, we present an assessment of the GCF's Readiness Support Programme with respect to how the programme's performance may have affected achievement of African countries' readiness outcomes. Second, a critical evaluation of the status of African GCF portfolio (pipeline and approved projects) provides a means by which to assess how well Africa's current portfolio aligns with GCF strategic impact areas, results areas and investment priorities. We then discuss GCF access modalities and the implications of relying on International Accredited Entities (IAEs) to indirectly access the Fund. The readiness support assessment indicates that the distribution of support requests and funding approvals is nearly equal across the regions of Africa, Asia Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. However, when the regions are considered individually, Africa demonstrates lower approvals with respect to requests and securing funding. Results from the GCF portfolio evaluation reveal that little or no attention has been devoted to GCF critical result areas such as forests and land use or transport, where great potentials for low-carbon development transitions exist. With respect to access modalities, the IAE financing mechanism currently provides access to the Fund for the majority of projects in both the global and African GCF portfolios. The implications of these findings are extensively discussed.Key policy insights For Africa, limited readiness support and a reliance on International Accredited Entities constrains capacity building, thereby reinforcing a lack of both readiness and direct access to the GCF.There are opportunities for Africa to diversify its GCF portfolios, adhere to international commitments, and address its adaptation and development needs by identifying and capitalizing on linkages between GCF funding priorities, mitigation, and adaptation.There are leverage points within existing climate finance and governance systems that could catalyse a shift in Africa's engagement with the GCF and generate positive, cascading effects on institutional strengthening, direct access accreditation and securing funding.

Fonta, WM; Ayuk, ET; van Huysen, T

Africa and the Green Climate Fund: current challenges and future opportunities

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1459447

At COP21 in Paris, governments reiterated the importance of 'non-Party' contributions, placing big bets that the efforts of cities, regions, investors, companies, and other social groups will help keep average global warming limited to well under 2 degrees C. However, there is little systematic knowledge concerning the performance of non-state and subnational efforts. We established a database of 52 climate actions launched at the 2014 UN Climate Summit in New York to assess output performance - that is, the production of relevant outputs - to understand whether they are likely to deliver social and environmental impacts. Moreover, we assess to which extent climate actions are implemented across developed and developing countries. We find that climate actions are starting to deliver, and output performance after one year is higher than one might expect from previous experiences with similar actions. However, differences exist between action areas: resilience actions have yet to produce specific outputs, whereas energy and industry actions perform above average. Furthermore, imbalances between developing and developed countries persist. While many actions target low-income and lower-middle-income economies, the implementation gap in these countries remains greater. More efforts are necessary to mobilize and implement actions that benefit the world's most vulnerable people. Policy relevance Climate actions by non-state and subnational actors are an important complement to the multilateral climate regime and the associated contributions made by national governments. Although such actions hold much potential, we still know very little about how they could deliver in practice. This article addresses this knowledge gap, by showing how 52 climate actions announced at the UN Climate Summit in 2014 have performed thus far. Based on our analysis, we argue that the post-Paris action agenda for non-state and subnational climate action should (1) find more effective ways to incentivize private sector actors to engage in transnational climate governance through actions that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote climate resilience in a tangible manner; (2) identify factors underlying effectiveness, to take appropriate measures to support underperforming climate actions; and (3) address the large implementation gap of climate actions in developing countries.

Chan, S; Falkner, R; Goldberg, M; van Asselt, H

Effective and geographically balanced? An output-based assessment of non-state climate actions

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2016.1248343

Justice dilemmas associated with climate change and the regulatory responses to it pose challenges for global governance, arguably hampering progress and raising concerns over efficacy and relevance. Scholarly literature suggests that transnational civil society groups can help address problems of governance and injustice that cross borders and pit states against each other. Findings of a comparative, qualitative study of climate justice advocacy suggest, however, that civil society groups' work in the US and EU is significantly shaped by institutional factors specific to those regimes, limiting advocates' broader impact. Moreover, political opportunities for the pursuit of climate action, and justice particularly, have diminished in those settings. By contrast, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides greater opportunities for discussions of justice, although civil society actors are significantly constrained within it. It is argued that greater roles for civil society in the UNFCCC could prove constructive in the face of current challenges connected with justice issues. Three themes in civil society advocacy linking principles of global justice with current climate policy debates are summarized. Finally, it is suggested that the first iteration of the UNFCCC Periodic Review provides timely opportunities to more fully draw upon civil society's potential contributions toward a fair and effective global climate regime.Policy relevanceThe roles of civil society organizations in climate governance were examined in three policy contexts: the UNFCCC, the US, and the EU, with special attention to advocacy addressing issues of equity and justice, identified as key challenges for a post-2012 global agreement. Findings suggest that (1) civil society roles are significantly constrained in each context, and (2) political opportunities for climate advocacy have diminished since 2009 in the US and EU, underlining (3) the continued salience of the UNFCCC as a forum for engagement and the construction of effective and equitable climate policy. Potential exists for increased civil society involvement at the UNFCCC to help resolve obstacles based in divergent national priorities. Three areas of justice-focused civil society activity are reviewed for current negotiation topics and the governance structure of the institution. The current UNFCCC Periodic Review is identified as an opportunity to increase civil society involvement.

Derman, BB

Climate governance, justice, and transnational civil society

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.849492

The growing risk of vulnerability to climate change is widely discussed in the scientific and political sphere. More evidence from local case studies emerges that document this risk. Vulnerability to climate change and variability appears most likely to negatively affect poor people, particularly women. Tendencies to widen existing inequalities have been observed. In the Lake Faguibine area in Northern Mali the social, political and ecological conditions have drastically changed in the last three decades. We conducted 6 single gender participatory workshops using PRA in two communities. The workshops assessed vulnerability and adaptive strategies to climate variability and change for livestock and forest based livelihoods. Our results show divergences in the adaptive strategies of men and women. Migration represented one of the most important strategies for men. Women perceived this strategy more as a cause of vulnerability than an adaptive strategy. Traditionally male activities have been added to the workload of women (e.g. small ruminant herding). The historical axes show that development projects targeting women have not integrated climate change and variability into their planning. Most activities have been built around small scale agriculture. With the drying out of Lake Faguibine, those water dependent activities are no longer relevant. Women have developed their own adaptive strategies based on newly emerged forest resources in the former lake area (e.g. charcoal production). However, women are hindered from realizing the potential of these new activities. This is due to loss of person power in the household, unclear access to natural resources, lack of knowledge and financial resources. Lack of power to influence decision at the household and community levels as well as limited market opportunities for women are additional factors. Even though women's vulnerability is increasing in the short term, over the long term the emerging changes in women's roles could lead to positive impacts. These impacts could be both societal (division of labor and power, new social spaces), and economic (market access, livestock wealth). Locally specific gender sensitive analysis of vulnerability is needed to understand dynamics and interaction of divergent adaptive strategies. Societal and political change at broader scales is needed to realize potential benefits for women in the long term.

Djoudi, H; Brockhaus, M

Is adaptation to climate change gender neutral? Lessons from communities dependent on livestock and forests in northern Mali

International Forestry Review

https://doi.org/10.1505/146554811797406606

Flooding events in the Lower Benue valley of Nigeria are often associated with huge damage to properties and loss of life in the adjoining communities. Specific objectives of this study were to (i) examine the characteristics of rainfall and discharge at the major river in the study area-Benue trough of Nigeria; (ii) assess the occurrence of extreme rainfall conditions and other flood-triggering/exacerbating factors; and (iii) determine flood damage extent and available warning system in the area. Specific reference was made to the 2017 flood event in the area. Method used was an integrated environmental approach that combines analysis of rainfall and discharge data with social surveys, remote sensing and geographical information system. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) as well as flood damage curves were analysed with land use/cover change and soil data to establish the nature of the flood and its impacts. Result showed that rainfall has increased in the study area in October-December and February (b <= 0.13) but has decreased in the other months, albeit insignificantly (R-2 < 0.5). Rainfall-runoff relationship at the gauge station was weak (b = 16.67, R-2 = 0.21), and indicates the influence of antecedent soil moisture content at the gauge station, while the well-drained nature of the soil, its sedimentary geology and land use/cover analysis would indicate the dominance of infiltration-excess flow. The results of the SPI and PCI, which categorized the study area as largely wet during the study period (13.5% of the years classified as extremely wet and 54.1% wet), as well as high record of consecutive rain days revealed the vulnerability of the area to flood hazards in the wet months. Eighty-five per cent of the vulnerable residents are considerably poor, earning an equivalent of US $4.3 daily, and live in non-reinforced concrete masonry (64%) and wooden buildings (24%). The study recommends extensive flood control policy for the area and similar flood-prone communities.

Ologunorisa, TE; Obioma, O; Eludoyin, AO

Urban flood event and associated damage in the Benue valley, Nigeria

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05052-6

Agriculture is deeply interconnected with weather and climate, the main drivers of agriculture production, but also the dominant factors in the overall variability of food production. Agriculture constitutes the principal livelihood of 70% of the world's poor; many of them are hungry and living in vulnerable, climate-sensitive areas. Since the undernourished population reached 1 billion persons in 2009, raising food production by some 70% to meet the needs of a projected world population of 9.1 billion people in 2050 may be one of the greatest challenges of the century. In addition, changes in climatic conditions are already having impacts on agriculture and the use of natural resources for food production. Climate science has much to offer in addressing these challenges, especially with respect to the characterisation of agroclimatic resources and development of climate-responsive food and agriculture policies, programmes and practices. However, as food systems expand into marginal and vulnerable areas, the need for a renewed, holistic focus is becoming evident, taking into account ecological, economic and social perspectives. Climate and agriculture services must therefore consider climate as a resource, understand current and future vulnerabilities and risks, and develop synergies that embrace innovation in climate science in order to facilitate sustainable agriculture and food security. The emerging ability of climate science to provide timely and accurate climate information, together with innovative tools and methods for analysis, presents opportunities for managing current climate risks and for initiating strategic climate-resilient adaptation in agriculture. However, to make effective use of these advancements, action-oriented climate advice should integrate information on different time scales (intra-seasonal, seasonal and long-term) for risk/opportunity management and strategies for optimal and sustainable use of land, water and genetic resources. Strong partnerships and collaboration among international institutions, national hydrometeorological services, agricultural extension agencies, national research institutions, community-based organisations and social networks are a prerequisite for the advancement of action-oriented advice. All of these efforts present key challenges, but offer immense opportunities, for both climate science and agriculture services, with respect to supporting sustainable agriculture and food security.

Selvaraju, R; Gommes, R; Bernardi, M

Climate science in support of sustainable agriculture and food security

Climate Research

https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00954

This paper aims to analyse the impacts of climate change to the current and predicted future situations of road transportation in the UK and evaluate the corresponding adaptation plans to cope with them. A conceptual framework of long-term adaptation planning for climate change in road systems is proposed to ensure the resilience and sustainability of road transport systems under various climate risks such as flooding and increased temperature. To do so, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is first employed to evaluate the climate risks in the UK road transport networks. This modelling approach can tackle the high uncertainty in risk data and thus facilitate the development of the climate adaptation framework and its application in the UK road sector. To examine the feasibility of this model, a nationwide survey is conducted among the stakeholders to analyse the climate risks, in terms of the timeframe of climate threats, the likelihood of occurrence, the severity of consequences, and infrastructure resilience. From the modelling perspective, this work brings novelty by expanding the risk attribute the severity of consequence into three sub-attributes including economic loss, damage to the environment, and injuries and/or loss of life. It advances the-state-of-the-art technique in the current relevant literature from a single to multiple tier climate risk modelling structure. Secondly, an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach is used to prioritise the best adaptation measure(s) by considering both the risk analysis results from the FBR and the implementation costs simultaneously. The main new contributions of this part lie in the rich raw data collected from the real world to provide useful practical insights for achieving road resilience when facing increasing climate risk challenges. During this process, a qualitative analysis of several national reports regarding the impacts posed by climate change, risk assessment and adaptation measures in the UK road sector is conducted for the relevant decision data (i.e. risk and cost). It is also supplemented by an in-depth interview with a senior planner from Highways England. The findings provide road planners and decision makers with useful insights on identification and prioritisation of climate threats as well as selection of cost-effective climate adaptation measures to rationalise adaptation planning.

Wang, TN; Qu, ZH; Yang, ZL; Nichol, T; Dimitriu, D; Clarke, G; Bowden, D

How can the UK road system be adapted to the impacts posed by climate change? By creating a climate adaptation framework

Transportation Research Part D-Transport And Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.02.007

Y This study assessed the influence of soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and climate variability on crop yields in Kongwa District, central Tanzania. In doing so, climate data and soil samples were collected from Mnyakongo and Ugogoni villages through soil sampling, interviews and surveys. Walkley-Black method, Mann-Kendall test, and MS Excel were used to analyze SOC, climate, crop yields respectively. The results exhibited that the accumulation of SOC was significantly greater in soils under organic fertilization (1.15 and 0.80 MgC ha(-1) at soil 0-20 cm and 20-30 cm depth) than under no-fertilization (0.35 and 0.30 MgC ha(-1) at 0-20 cm and 20-30 cm) and decreased with increasing soil depths. Under these two soil treatments, the average yields for maize, sorghum and millet were almost 1.8 tn ha(-1) under organic fertilization and 0.6 tn ha(-1) under no-fertilization. Specifically, maize yields ranged from 1.5 to 2.2 tn ha(-1), while both sorghum and millet had 1.1-1.7 tn ha(-1). Therefore, yields were significantly higher under organic fertilizations than under no-fertilizations. Besides, the mean annual rainfall or temperature (1980-2020) fluctuated at a decreasing (R-2 = 0.21) or an increasing trend (R-2 = 0.30). Comparatively, the yields for maize, sorghum or millet fluctuated at a decreasing trend at R-2 = 0.07, 0.05, or 0.85, respectively. Correspondingly, it was found that the temporal increase in rainfall and temperature had positive (R-2 similar to 0.5) and negative (R-2 similar to 0.3) correlations with crop yields, respectively. In contrast, the decline in rain's intensity and frequency had negative impacts on crop yields. Thus, both SOC and climate correlated with crop yields.

Mkonda, MY; He, XH

The Influence of Soil Organic Carbon and Climate Variability on Crop Yields in Kongwa District, Tanzania

Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-022-01592-0

Flooding is the most common natural disaster in Europe. Modern flood risk management relies not only infrastructure development but also on governmental and non-governmental actors applying legal, economic and communicative water management instruments. Within the European Union (EU), flood management closely relies on policy set at the EU and national levels. It is now recognized that a sound understanding of climate change is required in addition to current management by taking into account land use change and socio-political context, as climate and land use changes have major impacts on hydrological responses. This paper investigates the hydrological behavior due to urbanization under current and future climate scenarios of high summer and high winter rainfall for 20 sub-catchments of the Schijn River, located in the Flanders region near Antwerp, Belgium. As urbanization increases and existing rainfall-runoff models neglecting the specific behavior of urban runoff, a hydrological model was developed based on a basic reservoir concept and applied to the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flow to examine the specific urban contribution. Results revealed that peak flow for urban runoff and the total peak flow (i.e. rural and urban runoff) were significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 500%) than the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flows, because of faster and more peaked urban runoff response. The impact of climate change on current and future conditions was also assessed by estimating peak flows with respect to return periods from the flood frequency curve. The predicted peak flow of high summer future climate scenario was significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 250%) than that of the current climatic condition for this region. Furthermore, hourly peak flow and daily volume ratios of 100-year return period for the highest, lowest and average impervious area were projected for the time horizon of the year 2100. It is concluded that climate change impacts contribute the most in producing peak flow in coming years, while increased urbanization takes the second place for both hourly and daily values. Results on urbanization effect and climate change impact assessment are useful to the water managers for spatial planning, emergency planning and insurance industry.

Akter, T; Quevauviller, P; Eisenreich, SJ; Vaes, G

Impacts of climate and land use changes on flood risk management for the Schijn River, Belgium

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2018.07.002

California is severely exposed to drought and damage due to the climate change and drought belt, which has a major impact on agriculture. So, after the drought crisis, there are various reactions from farmers. The extent of the damage caused by the socioeconomic, environment and the extent of the resistance of farmers to this crisis is manifested in a variety of ways. Recognizing the population's resilience and the involved human groups is a tool for preventing a catastrophe-based increase in life-threatening areas in high-risk areas. Sometimes the inability to manage this phenomenon (especially under the climate change) leads to farmers' desertification and agricultural land release, which itself indicates a low level of resilience and resilience to the crisis. The recent drought under the climate change condition in California and the severity of the damage sustained by farmers continue to be vulnerable. The present study seeks to prioritize and prioritize resilience of farmers to the crisis under the climate change. This study simulated drought condition with using PDSI value for current and future time period. In order to calculate PDSI values, the climatic parameters extracted from CMIP5 models and downscaled under the scenario of RCP 8.5. Also in order to understand the resilience of the agriculture activities under the climate change, this study was performed using statistical tests and data from the questionnaire completed in the statistical population of 320 farmers in the Tulare region in California. The findings of the research by t test showed that the average level of effective factors in increasing the resilience of farmers in the region is low. This is particularly significant in relation to the factors affecting government policies and support. So that only the mean of five variables is higher than the numerical desirability of the test and the other 15 variables do not have a suitable status for increasing the resilience of the farmers. Also, the results of the Vikor model showed that most of the impact on their resilience to drought and climate change was the development of agricultural insurance, the second important impact belongs to drought monitoring system, climate change and damage assessment, and variable of attention to knowledge is in third place of the important factor.

Javadinejad, S; Dara, R; Jafary, F

Analysis and Prioritization the Effective Factors on Increasing Farmers Resilience Under Climate Change and Drought

Agricultural Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-020-00516-w

Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m(3)/month or m(3)/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from 1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past point measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chang, NB; Yang, YJ; Goodrich, JA; Daranpob, A

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and short-term assessment with multi-scale remote sensing technologies

Journal Of Environmental Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.02.024

Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts' elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

Cian, F; Giupponi, C; Marconcini, M

Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04535-w

The efundja is the annual flooding experienced in the Cuvelai-Etosha basin of northern Namibia. This recurring flooding varies in intensity and impact the lives of the inhabitants of the basin in disparate ways. The rural population of the basin is especially vulnerable to the impacts associated with these floods. The governmental response to the efundja is mostly reactive, and the voices of the rural community are lacking in the development and execution of the disaster response strategy for the area. Limited studies exist to include the voices of rural communities in the narrative about the efundja and its impact and mitigation. This study used focus group discussions to investigate the experiences of heads of households in the affected rural communities in the study area to address this hiatus in the research. The results of the study can also aid in addressing the deficiencies in the governmental response strategy used to deal with the floods. Rural communities in the study area articulated the impacts of the efundja on their lives well and indicated that the impacts are pervasive and affect their entire way of life. They reported that the nature and duration of the efundja have changed over time, with a longer duration, more severe impacts, pollution, and poor water quality associated with recent efundja events. They attribute this mainly to climate change, an increase in the population of the basin, inappropriate human behavior and bad spatial planning. Although the rural communities reported various practical methods to alleviate the adverse impacts of the flooding, they expressed a general lack of capacity to deal with the flooding effectively. Empowerment through education and training on how to mitigate effects and participation in disaster response planning and execution were affirmed needs in the communities surveyed. The research and its results can be used to inform a better disaster response strategy for northern Namibia. The study can also be emulated in other areas of the Global South. The results of such studies can be compared with that of the present study to expand the disaster response narrative. Adding the voices of vulnerable rural communities can be a particularly valuable addition to the disaster response narrative since their views are sometimes excluded in disaster response studies.

Shaamhula, LV; Smit, HAP; van der Merwe, J

Community responses to the annual flooding (efundja) in the Cuvelai-Etosha basin, Northern Namibia

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102372

This article investigates the role of 'illicit' activities in shaping vulnerability dynamics and exemplifies the role of subjectivities and authority in the politics of adaptation. Through drawing on data from several areas in Kitui County in Kenya, the article shows how people are able to use illicit strategies very differently, with differential outcomes on their vulnerability. We suggest that this dynamic has important political dimensions in terms of how authority, legitimacy, subjectivity and social status are reproduced or challenged through the daily practice of how individuals and households within a village engage in strategies to manage shocks and change. We use the term 'illicit' here to emphasize that some activities carried out to cope with shocks and change in the study area, namely bush-meat hunting, home-brewing, charcoal production, prostitution, forest uses and theft, are actually subject to legal or social sanctions and repercussions because they are counter to statutory and/or customary law and moral codes. What is seen as socially acceptable locally (and by whom) however, and what sanctions can be expected, is malleable as a result of a dynamic interplay between statutory and customary law and social norms, subjectivity and environmental conditions, which do not always coincide. People may use this to their advantage differentially. Engaging in illicit activities can alter subjectivity and authority, as people are ascribed roles characterized as 'immoral' or 'criminal', which in turn may affect their social standing and authority in the community. Illicit strategies are, however, also in part an arena where people assume authority and control over their own circumstances and resist rules of what is socially acceptable or not. Longer-term implications of the illicit coping strategies identified in this article were found to be contradictory and unpredictable, multifaceted and complex, particularly in terms of social differentiation and vulnerability. Coping strategies that might make a person or household less vulnerable on one time scale, might make them more vulnerable on another, thereby illustrating that adaptation is not a linear nor static process. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mosberg, M; Eriksen, SH

Responding to climate variability and change in dryland Kenya: The role of illicit coping strategies in the politics of adaptation

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.006

IntroductionIn the quest to improve the understanding of climate change impacts on elements of the atmospheric, physical, and life systems, scientists are challenged by the scarcity and uneven distribution of grounded data. Through their long history of interaction with the environment, Indigenous Peoples and local communities have developed complex knowledge systems that allow them to detect impacts of climate change in the local environment. The study protocol presented here is designed 1) to inventory climate change impacts on the atmospheric, physical, and life systems based on local knowledge and 2) to test hypotheses on the global spatial, socioeconomic, and demographic distribution of reported impacts. The protocol has been developed within the framework of a project aiming to bring insights from Indigenous and local knowledge systems to climate research ().MethodsData collection uses a mixed-method approach and relies on the collaboration of a team of 50 trained partners working in sites where people's livelihood directly depend on nature. The data collection protocol consists of two steps. Step 1 includes the collection of secondary data (e.g., spatial and meteorological data) and site contextual information (e.g., village infrastructure, services). Step 1 also includes the use of 1) semi-structured interviews (n = 20-30/site) to document observations of environmental change and their drivers and 2) focus group discussions to identify consensus in the information gathered. Step 2 consist in the application of a household (n from 75 to 125) and individual survey (n from 125 to 175) using a standardized but locally adapted instrument. The survey includes information on 1) individual and household socio-demographic characteristics, 2) direct dependence on nature, 3) household's vulnerability, and 4) individual perceptions of climate change impacts. Survey data are entered in a specifically designed database.Expected resultsThis protocol allows the systematic documentation and analysis of the patterned distribution of local indicators of climate change impacts across climate types and livelihood activities. Data collected with this protocol helps fill important gaps on local climate change impacts research and can provide tangible outcomes for local people who will be able to better reflect on how climate change impacts them.

Reyes-García, V; Alvarez-Fernández, S; Benyei, P; García-del-Amo, D; Junqueira, AB; Labeyrie, V; Li, XY; Porcher, V; Porcuna-Ferrer, A; Schlingmann, A; Soleymani, R

Local indicators of climate change impacts described by indigenous peoples and local communities: Study protocol

Plos One

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279847

Non-technical summary The COVID-19 pandemic can be considered an experiment forced upon the world community and, as such, responses to the pandemic can provide lessons about socio-ecological systems as well as processes of transformative change. What enabled responses to COVID-19 to be as effective as they were, right at a time when climate action is notably lagging behind what intergovernmental panels have called for? This paper examines key differences in the COVID-19 response compared to that of climate change, examining the 'deeper' human dimensions of these global issues. Unearthing insights into the responses to both issues provides important lessons for climate change engagement. Technical summary In the first half of 2020, a dramatic, fast and widespread series of changes occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in behaviors, mindsets, culture, and systems. Yet, despite the intergovernmental calls for precisely this kind of fundamental, transformative change across society regarding global warming, public opinion on climate change is fractured and collective action is slow. More research is needed on the psychosocial dimensions of climate change, to better understand what the bottlenecks are for realizing transformative change. In this paper, I examine what occurred in the COVID-19 pandemic response that could be learned for the climate crisis. I focus on three psychological aspects that made the COVID-19 response accessible and actionable in a way that climate change is not: the mental demands for understanding complex issues; psychological distance and its impacts on motivation and agency; and finite attentional resources that can render certain issues as non-salient. Lessons for climate engagement include: (1) the usefulness of concrete, simple, and personally-relatable messaging; (2) more diverse and democratized climate understandings and stories; (3) greater recognition about how psychological distance affects meaning-making and sense of agency; and (4) appreciation of attentional crowding and the need for sense-making strategies about complex issues. Social media summary Lessons from the deeper human dimensions of COVID-19 response help inform climate change engagement and transformation.

Hochachka, G

Unearthing insights for climate change response in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic

Global Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1017/sus.2020.27

Objectives Although research shows that public health is substantially affected during and after disasters, few studies have examined the health effects of Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall on the Texas coast in August 2017. We assessed disparities in physical health, mental health, and health care access after Hurricane Harvey among residents of the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas, metropolitan statistical area (ie, Houston MSA). Methods We used structured survey data collected through telephone and online surveys from a population-based random sample of Houston MSA residents (n = 403) collected from November 29, 2017, through January 6, 2018. We used descriptive statistics to describe the prevalence of physical health/mental health and health care access outcomes and multivariable generalized linear models to assess disparities (eg, based on race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, disability) in health outcomes. Results Physical health problems disproportionately affected persons who did not evacuate (odds ratio [OR] = 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19-0.87). Non-Hispanic black persons were more likely than non-Hispanic white persons to have posttraumatic stress (OR = 5.03; 95% CI, 1.90-13.10), as were persons in households that experienced job loss post-Harvey (vs did not experience job loss post-Harvey; OR = 2.89; 95% CI, 1.14-7.32) and older persons (OR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06). Health care access was constrained for persons whose households lost jobs post-Harvey (vs did not lose jobs post-Harvey; OR = 2.73; 95% CI, 1.29-5.78) and for persons with disabilities (vs without disabilities; OR = 3.19; 95% CI, 1.37-7.45). Conclusions Our findings underscore the need to plan for and ameliorate public health disparities resulting from climate change-related disasters, which are expected to occur with increased frequency and magnitude.

Flores, AB; Collins, TW; Grineski, SE; Chakraborty, J

Disparities in Health Effects and Access to Health Care Among Houston Area Residents After Hurricane Harvey

Public Health Reports

https://doi.org/10.1177/0033354920930133

Pakistan's agricultural productivity is considered to be low despite several agriculture promotion policies. Such policies concentrate primarily on on-farm development and overlook rich prospects for off-farm diversification. Livelihood diversification of small-scale farmers plays a major role in reducing hunger and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. Therefore, this paper seeks to analyze livelihood diversification in managing catastrophic risks among rural farm households of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. We have interviewed a total of 600 farm households through a standardized questionnaire in two districts (Nowshera and Charsadda) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan that were badly affected by the 2010 flood. For empirical analysis, a logistic regression model was chosen to analyze the important attributes that are correlated to livelihood diversification of the rural households in flood-susceptible areas of Pakistan. The survey findings indicate that 50% of the total sample respondents adopted off-farm livelihood diversification strategies, while 40.5% of farm households adopted on-farm livelihood diversification strategies in managing catastrophic risks. The logistic regression model results show that attributes including socioeconomic and demographic, institutional, and risk perception significantly influenced households' choices of livelihood diversification. Also, the findings indicated a wide range of livelihood diversification constrained including climatic risks and uncertainties (23%), inadequate natural resources (17%), limited level of skills and training (15%), lack of institutional support (12%), lack of credit facilities (11%), poor infrastructure including markets and roads (16%), and lack of labor availability (4%). The study urges the need for robust climate change adaptation policies, in particular, by aiming at training initiatives, improving access to services, and enhancing institutional assistance, and better infrastructure. The livelihood of small-scale farmers could only improve if the Government pays due consideration and adopts the right policy initiatives that promote the diversification of livelihoods as part of the creation of national jobs to save many lives and improve livelihoods.

Shah, AA; Gong, ZW; Khan, NA; Khan, I; Ali, M; Naqvi, SAA

Livelihood diversification in managing catastrophic risks: evidence from flood-disaster regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan

Environmental Science And Pollution Research

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13598-y

The 'climate justice' lens is increasingly being used in framing discussions and debates on global climate finance. A variant of such justice - distributive justice - emphasises recipient countries' vulnerability to be an important consideration in funding allocation. The extent to which this principle is pursued in practice has been of widespread and ongoing concerns. Empirical evidence in this regard however remains inadequate and methodologically weak. This research examined the effect of recipients' climate vulnerability on the allocation of climate funds by controlling for other commonly-identified determinants. A dynamic panel regression method based on Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) was used on a longitudinal dataset, containing approved funds for more than 100,000 projects covering three areas of climate action (mitigation, adaptation, and overlap) in 133 countries over two decades (2000-2018). Findings indicated a non-significant effect of recipients' vulnerability on mitigation funding, but significant positive effects on adaptation and overlap fundings. 'Most vulnerable' countries were likely to receive higher amounts of these two types of funding than the 'least vulnerable' countries. All these provided evidence of distributive justice. However, the relationship between vulnerability and funding was parabolic, suggesting 'moderately vulnerable' countries likely to receive more funding than the 'most vulnerable' countries. Whilst, for mitigation funding, this observation was not a reason for concern, for adaptation and overlap fundings this was not in complete harmony with distributive justice. Paradoxically, countries with better investment readiness were likely to receive more adaptation and overlap funds. In discordance with distributive justice, countries within the Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia regions, despite their higher climatic vulnerabilities, were likely to receive significantly less adaptation and overlap fundings. Effects of vulnerability were persistent, and past funding had significant effects on current funding. These, coupled with the impact of readiness, suggested a probable Low Funding Trap for the world's most vulnerable countries. The overarching conclusion is that, although positive changes have occurred since the 2015 Paris Agreement, considerable challenges to distributive justice remain. Significant data and methodological challenges encountered in the research and their implications are also discussed.

Islam, MM

Distributive justice in global climate finance-Recipients' climate vulnerability and the allocation of climate funds

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102475

How individuals perceive climate change is linked to whether individuals support climate policies and whether they alter their own climate-related behaviors, yet climate perceptions may be influenced by many factors beyond local shifts in weather. Infrastructure designed to control or regulate natural resources may serve as an important lens through which people experience climate, and thus may influence perceptions. Likewise, perceptions may be influenced by personal beliefs about climate change and whether it is human-induced. Here we examine farmer perceptions of historical climate change, how perceptions are related to observed trends in regional climate, how perceptions are related to the presence of irrigation infrastructure, and how perceptions are related to beliefs and concerns about climate change. We focus on the regions of Marlborough and Hawke's Bay in New Zealand, where irrigation is utilized on the majority of cropland. Data are obtained through analysis of historical climate records from local weather stations, interviews (n = 20), and a farmer survey (n = 490). Across both regions, no significant historical trends in annual precipitation and summer temperatures since 1980 are observed, but winter warming trends are significant at around 0.2-0.3 degrees C per decade. A large fraction of farmers perceived increases in annual rainfall despite instrumental records indicating no significant trends, a finding that may be related to greater perceived water availability associated with irrigation growth. A greater fraction of farmers perceived rainfall increases in Marlborough, where irrigation growth has been most substantial. We find those classes of farmers more likely to have irrigation were also significantly more likely to perceive an increase in annual rainfall. Furthermore, we demonstrate that perceptions of changing climate - regardless of their accuracy - are correlated with increased belief in climate change and an increased concern for future climate impacts. Those farmers that believe climate change is occurring and is human induced are more likely to perceive temperature increases than farmers who believe climate change is not occurring and is not human induced. These results suggest that perceptions are influenced by a variety of personal and environmental factors, including infrastructure, which may in turn alter decisions about climate adaptation. (C) 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Niles, MT; Mueller, ND

Farmer perceptions of climate change: Associations with observed temperature and precipitation trends, irrigation, and climate beliefs

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.002

This research is conducted in Santikhiri, a hilltop village on the highest peak in the Doi Mae Salong forest, where climate change increases the intensity and frequency of natural disasters that immensely affect the local children in the mountainous area in Chiang Rai province, northern Thailand. There is only one secondary-level school in this forest landscape educating around 900 schoolchildren from various minority hill-tribe ethnic groups. This paper examines everyday life experiences recentering the village school's role as the producer of safe space for the forest children from climate disasters. School safety is a global framework for recognizing the importance of child-centered efforts in building disaster resilience for the education sector. Parameters and variables used to measure the disaster resilience of schools are adapted from the Climate Resilience Model and School Safety Model by Tong et al. (2012), covering three dimensions: 1) institutional issues, 2) physical conditions, and 3) external relationships. Lefebvre's Spatial Triad Framework is applied to dialectically interconnect dimensions to produce a safe space at the village school to protect the students from climate disaster threats. A mix-method method is applied with several techniques to collect data, including participant observation, semistructured interviews, and content analysis. Furthermore, a scale Likert survey examined statements on school safety from educational practitioners in the rural forest area. The research argues that the production of safe space at the school is intertwined with budget allocation for disaster preparedness and response (institutional issue as l'espace concu), environmental protection campaign to create a hygienic school environment (physical conditions as l'espace percu), and support from the local community (external relations as l'espace vecu). However, the school is also two contradicting spaces of conceived and lived. Through the critical examination of the production of safe space, the school is a planned space of hierarchical power relations in institutional issues focusing on impacts from rapid- onset disasters. Concurrently, the forest children are still marginalized from external relationships and natural conditions' slow- onset climate change impacts.

Dania, M; Inpin, W; Juwitasari, R; Miyake, Y; Takeuchi, Y; Maki, T

The Production of Safety School Space from Climate Disasters in Doi Mae Salong Forest, Upland Northern Thailand

Forest And Society

https://doi.org/10.24259/fs.v6i2.20739

Ghana is witnessing an increase in the construction of coastal flood defence walls on its coast but the effects of the coastal defence on people have not been well documented. This paper explores two issues: (1) indigenous strategies for preventing sea erosion and (2) the effects the modern coastal flood defence structures constructed along the southeastern coast of Ghana are having on the people. This study provides new insights into the understanding of indigenous methods that were used to address coastal flooding in the eastern section of Ghana and the effects the modern coastal defence structures are having on the people. Through multiphase sampling, a sample of 282 residents living in 17 communities affected by sea erosion in the Keta, Anloga, and Ada East District Assemblies where coastal defence structures were constructed were selected. Questionnaires were administered to these 282 respondents. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were also held in three communities, namely Keta, Atorkor and Totepe where coastal defence structures were constructed. The planning officers of the 3 district assemblies, the chief fishermen in the 3 communities where the FGDs were held, leaders of salt winners and 3 elders in each community were the key informants. Using descriptive statistics, the study revealed that, indigenous strategies like filling the beach with sand, building away from the seashore, and raising the foundations of buildings were used to protect the houses and communities from sea erosion but these strategies are no longer working thereby forcing the government to construct 'modern' coastal flood defence wallson the coast. The 'modern' coastal defence structures are in some places protecting the people and the land since they no longer experience sea erosion on a large scale. However, in places where armour rocks are used to protect the land, people now see them as preventing them from enjoying the natural beach as they used to and as a hindrance to their livelihoods of fishing. It is recommended that, as far as possible, soft engineering strategies like beach nourishment or sand dunes which are in line with the indigenous methods be used since they can lead to easy adaptation for sustainability.

Gbedemah, SF

Eruditing from indigenous adaptation strategies for resilient and sustainable coastal erosion management in southeastern Ghana

Discover Sustainability

https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-023-00123-z

Prioritization of adaptation options is complex. This study presents a multi-dimensional framework to evaluate how to allocate resources among competing alternatives. The main objectives of the study were to identify the prioritized climate-smart agricultural practices adopted among smallholder farmers in different value chains across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and to assess the economic feasibility of the practices using Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) to develop a portfolio of viable and cost-effective options. This study focused on selected five SSA countries and selected value chains. 153 smallholder farmers and stakeholders were interviewed. The Climate Smart Agriculture Prioritization Framework was applied for the assessment of economically viable adaptation options. The prioritization was based on standard ranks on the ability of the practice to improve productivity, increase resilience, and mitigation. Spearman's rank-order correlation was used to assess the independence of the ranks. A CBA was conducted as the final step. Smallholder farmers in the study areas prioritized the adoption of improved seed, good agricultural practices, and conservation agriculture practices. In the sweet potato value chain in Kenya, good agricultural practices was viable with an NPV of US$ 28,044, an IRR of 328%, and a one-year payback period. This is in comparison to the improved seed varieties (US$ 8,738, 111%, and two years payback period) respectively. In Nigeria, the most viable option was the improved seed in the potato value chain and good agricultural practices in the rice value chain. In Malawi, Ethiopia, and Zambia, the most viable practices were improved seed, and conservation agriculture in the soybean, faba beans, and peanut value chains respectively. The NPV was highly sensitive to changes in the discount rate, moderately to price, yield, and practice lifecycle, and least to changes in annual labour costs. The results elaborate on the most feasible adaptation practices that enable smallholder farmers to increase productivity and be economically efficient. The use of the CSA-PF consecutively with the CBA tool allows for the proper identification of best-bet CSA options.

Akinyi, DP; Nganga, SK; Ngigi, M; Mathenge, M; Girvetz, E

Cost-benefit analysis of prioritized climate-smart agricultural practices among smallholder farmers: evidence from selected value chains across sub-Saharan Africa

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09228

Reindeer husbandry's strong connection to the land, together with the ongoing climate-change debate, has generated growing interest in its socio-ecological resilience and vulnerability. The ability of indigenous societies and their activities to respond to change is widely recognized to be dependent on several factors, such as socioeconomic forces and aspects of governance, all of which have long historical backgrounds. However, although historians constantly address questions about human societies, there have been very few historical studies on their resilience, vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Here, using historical sources, we analyze the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry (and the Sami societies that depended on it) in Sweden during the 19th century. We demonstrate that although reindeer management was a much more diverse enterprise at that time than it is now, the major adaptation strategy and constraining forces were similar to those of today. The foremost adaptation strategy was, and still is, the flexible use of pasture area, and the clearest constraints during the 19th century were the loss of authority over the land and the imposed regulation of reindeer management-both of which were strongly connected to the process of colonization. Terminology: Throughout this paper we use the terms reindeer management and reindeer pastoralism interchangeably. Sami reindeer pastoralism has been described as a complex system with two different aspects of management: herding and husbandry. Husbandry has been defined as the accumulations of profit whereas herding has been defined as the control of the animals in the terrain (Paine, 1970, p. 53). In a Swedish context husbandry questions concerning slaughter and castration of reindeer were discussed within the household and herding matters were resolved jointly within the traditional working community Siida. The Siida consisted of households working together on traditional pasturelands and these constellations were grouped together into administrative reindeer pasture districts (Sami villages) (Ingold, 1978; Fellman, 1910; Beach, 1981). (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brännlund, I; Axelsson, P

Reindeer management during the colonization of Sami lands: A long-term perspective of vulnerability and adaptation strategies

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.005

Air quality in China is a major public health, social and economic concern. Air pollution governance and research in China have been increasingly active in the past decade, especially since 2013 when strict emission controls were implemented. Such emission control policies have been informed through dialogue between scientists and policy-makers on the sources and transport of air pollution in order to identify potential control measures. However, the process of making regulatory decisions about air pollution controls at this science-policy interface in China has rarely been analysed or discussed. We outline four classical science-policy models for making regulatory decisions proposed by scholars: (i) the decisionist model - whereby policy dictates what science and regulatory decisions are required; (ii) the technocratic model - where science dictates policy directly; (iii) the inverted decisionist model (where scientists advise policy-makers on what policy is required); and (iv) the co-evolutionary model (where policy-makers and scientists jointly create regulatory decisions). Boundary-actors play a key role in this co-evolutionary model. They operate as 'gate-keepers' between scientists and policy-makers. Most contemporary studies of the science-policy interface argue that the co-evolutionary model best captures the reality of how science and policy interact effectively to make regulatory decisions. To assess which of these models most closely resemble decision-making at the air pollution science-policy interface, we conducted a case study on air quality climate services and held workshops with Chinese scientists, decision-makers and stakeholders. A typology of existing scientific approaches to explore air quality climate science is presented. The workshop results show that the current air quality climate science-policy interplay occurs most strongly in accordance with the co-evolutionary model whereby the Beijing Climate Centre and the National Environmental Monitoring Centre operate as the key boundary actors between science and policy, specifically for a seasonal air pollution haze outlook service. We illustrate that current seasonal haze outlooks carefully avoiding quantification. We then present a conceptual framework of the air pollution science-policy interface in China, which captures the main participants and the interactive flow of information between them.

Wan, K; Shackley, S; Doherty, RM; Shi, ZB; Zhang, PQ; Golding, N

Science-policy interplay on air pollution governance in China

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.003

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of trees and agroforestry in climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper analyzes how farmers, members of their households, and community leaders in the Wahig-Inabanga watershed, Bohol province in the Philippines perceive of climate change, and define and value the roles of trees in coping with climate risks. Focus group discussions revealed that farmers and community leaders had observed changes in rainfall and temperature over the years. They also had positive perceptions of tree roles in coping with climate change, with most timber tree species valued for regulating functions, while non-timber trees were valued as sources of food and income. Statistical analysis of the household survey results was done through linear probability models for both determinants of farmers' perceived changes in climate, and perceived importance of tree roles in coping with climate risks. Perceiving of changes in rainfall was more likely among farmers who had access to electricity, had access to water for irrigation, and derived climate information from government agencies and mass media, and less likely among farmers who were members of farmers' organizations. On the other hand, perceiving of an increase in temperature was more likely among famers who were members of women's organizations and had more off/non-farm sources of income, and less likely among those who derived climate information from government agencies. Meanwhile, marginal effects of the regression on perceived importance of trees in coping with climate change revealed positively significant relationships with the following predictor variables: access to electricity, number of off/non-farm sources of income, having trees planted by household members, observed increase in temperature and decline in yield, and sourcing climate information from government agencies. In contrast, a negatively significant relationship was observed between recognition of the importance of tree roles, and level of education, and deriving income from tree products. In promoting tree-based adaptation, we recommend improving access to necessary inputs and resources, exploring the potentials of farmer-to-farmer extension, using participatory approaches to generate farmer-led solutions based on their experiences of climate change, and initiating government-led extension to farmers backed by non-government partners.

Lasco, RD; Espaldon, MLO; Habito, CMD

Smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and the roles of trees and agroforestry in climate risk adaptation: evidence from Bohol, Philippines

Agroforestry Systems

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-015-9874-y

Nowadays, urban areas are increasingly identified as strategic fields of climate change-related actions. Climate change is an increasingly complex challenge for these territories. Tackling climate change, moreover, in a sustainable way, is a priority in the European Union, which has set several ambitious short- and long-term mitigation, adaptation, and sustainability targets. It is a central issue of how society can respond to the climate emergency that is affected by and depends on the vertical and horizontal interrelations among different stakeholders, organizations, governance actors, etc., and their activities. Countries, regions, counties, and cities around the world react by developing climate strategies. The operationalization of the high-level political agreements and discourses is uncertain, and the policies in practice should also be evaluated on regional and city levels, just as the milestones of related strategic planning processes fostering local adaptive capacity. According to regional and urban governance, it is pivotal addressing not only mitigation but adaptation issues to be able to foster sustainable regional development, also considering the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) specified in the Agenda 2030. Adaptation to climate change is increasingly becoming a priority for policy action. It also has high relevance to find the synergic interrelations towards an adaptive future. This paper evaluates the recent changes in Hungarian regional and urban planning in relation to climate policy approach and reports a state of adaptation oriented spatial planning on NUTS-3 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) and LAU-1 (Local Administrative Units) levels. The results are based on the collection of all relevant climate change-related strategic documents on these levels in Hungary and on the analysis of specific information. There is a lack of knowledge related to the comprehensive adaptation policy and planning on regional and local levels in Hungary. The results of the evaluation show the state-of-art knowledge related to possible adaptation pathways and the various engagement level for climate policy approach on different spatial levels in Hungary. In the case of the examined research area, the development of more mitigation oriented planning documents and low level of adaptation measures and monitoring process management tools is seen as critical.

Csete, MS; Buzási, A

Hungarian regions and cities towards an adaptive future - analysis of climate change strategies on different spatial levels

Idojaras

https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2020.2.6

Food insecurity is a region-wide problem in Sub-Saharan Africa, exacerbated by severe drought, with devastating impacts at the household level. However, farmers' coping strategies and their determinants remain under-documented. In this study, we: 1) characterise relationships between perceptions of drought and food insecurity and corresponding household coping responses, 2) compare livelihood characteristics of farmers that perceived food insecurity as a problem and those who did not, and 3) investigate how household-level characteristics correspond to household coping strategies. Our study is exploratory in nature: we administered a questionnaire to 140 farmers in Isingiro district in South-west (SW) Uganda whose livelihood is predominantly dependent on crop production. We employ binomial and multinomial logistic regression models to identify the determinants of the respondents' perceptions, how household characteristics correspond to household perceptions of food insecurity, and factors that affect coping responses. Our data show that 68.6% of the respondents perceived food insecurity as a problem in their household. Access to credit for crop cultivation increased the likelihood (p < 0.05) that farmers will be more aware and concerned about household food security status. Farmers were more likely to use the credit as a buffer against food insecurity. Whilst drought is widely perceived (by 95.6%: 133) as a problem contributing to food insecurity, the coping responses are wide-ranging. However a considerable 13% (of the total) reported to be doing nothing to respond to the drought effects. Notably, farmers that did not perceive food insecurity as a problem have higher (p = 0.01) off-farm incomes and larger (p = 0.00) farm sizes on average compared to those that did. Significant (p < 0.05) determinants of coping strategies include a combination of size of farmland, total income from crops, number of livestock and marital status. Broadly, our study indicates that households believe they are most at-risk of drought-induced food insecurity. Access to credit and alternative means of livelihood may offer resilience building options.

Twongyirwe, R; Mfitumukiza, D; Barasa, B; Naggayi, BR; Odongo, H; Nyakato, V; Mutoni, G

Perceived effects of drought on household food security in South-western Uganda: Coping responses and determinants

Weather And Climate Extremes

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100201

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to identify, analyse and document local traditional indicators used in drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment and to assess the possibility of integrating traditional rainfall forecasting, using the local traditional indicators, with meteorological forecasting methods. Design/methodology/approach - Self-administered structured questionnaires were conducted on 101 respondents in four districts of the Mzingwane Catchment area, namely, Beitbridge, Mangwe, Esighodini and Mwenezi from February to August 2012. In addition, key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also used in data collection and the collected data were analysed for drought history and demographics; drought adaptation and the use of drought forecasting methods in the catchment using Statistical Package for Social Science. Findings - The paper reveals the growing importance of precipitation forecasts among Mzingwane communities, particularly the amount, timing, duration and distribution of rainfall. Rainfall was cited as the major cause of drought by 98 per cent of the respondents in the catchment. Whilst meteorological rainfall forecasts are available through various channels, they are not readily accessible to rural communities. Furthermore, they are not very reliable at local level. The paper shows that communities in the Mzingwane Catchment still regard local traditional knowledge forecasting as their primary source of weather forecasts. The paper finds that plant phenology is widely used by the local communities in the four districts for drought forecasting. Early and significant flowering of Mopane trees (Colophospermum mopane) from September to December has been identified to be one of the signals of poor rainfall season in respect to quantity and distribution and subsequent drought. Late and less significant flowering of Umtopi trees (Boscia albitrunca) from September to December also signals a poor rainfall season. Originality/value - The paper fulfils an identified need to study and document useful traditional drought indicators. Furthermore, the paper provides a platform for possible integration of traditional drought forecasting and meteorological forecasting and ensure sustainable rural livelihood development. The paper is useful to both meteorological researchers and resource-constrained communities in Mzingwane Catchment.

Chisadza, B; Tumbare, MJ; Nhapi, I; Nyabeze, WR

Useful traditional knowledge indicators for drought forecasting in the Mzingwane Catchment area of Zimbabwe

Disaster Prevention And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/DPM-10-2012-0109

Since it was first proposed in 2000, the concept of the Anthropocene has evolved in breadth and diversely. The concept encapsulates the new and unprecedented planetary-scale changes resulting from societal transformations and has brought to the fore the social drivers of global change. The concept has revealed tensions between generalized interpretations of humanity's contribution to global change, and interpretations that are historically, politically and culturally situated. It motivates deep ethical questions about the politics and economics of global change, including diverse interpretations of past causes and future possibilities. As such, more than other concepts, the Anthropocene concept has brought front-and center epistemological divides between and within the natural and social sciences, and the humanities. It has also brought new opportunities for collaboration. Here we explore the potential and challenges of the concept to encourage integrative understandings of global change and sustainability. Based on bibliometric analysis and literature review, we discuss the now wide acceptance of the term, its interpretive flexibility, the emerging narratives as well as the debates the concept has inspired. We argue that without truly collaborative and integrative research, many of the critical exchanges around the concept are likely to perpetuate fragmented research agendas and to reinforce disciplinary boundaries. This means appreciating the strengths and limitations of different knowledge domains, approaches and perspectives, with the concept of the Anthropocene serving as a bridge, which we encourage researchers and others to cross. This calls for institutional arrangements that facilitate collaborative research, training, and action, yet also depends on more robust and sustained funding for such activities. To illustrate, we briefly discuss three overarching global change problems where novel types of collaborative research could make a difference: (1) Emergent properties of socioecological systems; (2) Urbanization and resource nexus; and (3) Systemic risks and tipping points. Creative tensions around the Anthropocene concept can help the research community to move toward new conceptual syntheses and integrative action-oriented approaches that are needed to producing useful knowledge commensurable with the challenges of global change and sustainability. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Brondizio, ES; O'Brien, K; Bai, XM; Biermann, F; Steffen, W; Berkhout, F; Cudennec, C; Lemos, MC; Wolfe, A; Palma-Oliveira, J; Chen, CTA

Re-conceptualizing the Anthropocene: A call for collaboration

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.006

This study investigated the association of flood/stagnant water (FSW) with various health outcomes among respondents living in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas. We also assessed the differences of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics between the FSW-affected and non-affected areas. Bangladesh as a whole and slums in the megacity of Dhaka in particular are severely affected by the FSW. Data were collected from 3,207 subjects (aged 10+ years) through baseline surveys conducted in March 2008 and 2009. Twelve big slums in Dhaka and three adjacent villages were selected as study areas. Face-to-face interviews using a multidimensional pre-tested questionnaire were conducted by the trained university graduates. We performed various types of analyses ranging from the simple frequency analysis to the multivariable-adjusted logistic regression modelling. Our empirical findings suggest that slums were more affected by the FSW as compared to the rural areas. People living in the FSW-affected areas were more vulnerable in terms of individual-, household- and area-level characteristics than non-affected people. Age was also significantly associated with various health outcomes. According to multivariable analyses controlled for various factors, the FSW-affected people reported significantly higher likelihoods of health symptoms (namely fever, cold/cough, weakness), communicable diseases (namely diarrhoea and gastric disease) and poor mental well-being as compared to the non-affected people. Only the burden of non-communicable diseases was lower in the FSW-affected areas than the non-affected areas. Our findings lead us to conclude that the FSW-affected area is an independent risk factor for various physical and mental health problems. Urban slums are more affected than rural areas by the FSW. Therefore, we underscore the necessities of well-designed and comprehensive public health interventions focusing on individual, community and higher levels of interventions to reduce the FSW-related health and other consequences among the people living in the FSW-affected areas and urban slums in the rapidly growing city of Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Khan, MMH; Gruebner, O; Krämer, A

Is area affected by flood or stagnant water independently associated with poorer health outcomes in urban slums of Dhaka and adjacent rural areas?

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0829-1

Recent changes in climatic conditions are expected to intensify the existing risk of hunger and malnutrition along with the vulnerability of livelihood in the developing nations, more so on the fragile Hindu-Kush Himalaya. Many communities in this region subsist on agro-pastoral practices, which hinge upon seasonal rhythmic cooperative farming and traditional knowledge associated with these practices. With the rapid change in socio-cultural practices coupled with changing climate, agro-pastoral production has declined in many areas. Hill farming cannot resist even a small degree of disturbance as steep slopes and terrain conditions already limit hill agriculture's capacity. However, quantitative information in these aspects is lacking. Livelihood vulnerability assessment methods have emerged as an important tool for the identification of areas requiring immediate intervention. The different results from different methods make it difficult for policymakers to prioritize areas requiring direct intervention. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the livelihood vulnerability of an agro-pastoral community viz. Barpatiyas of the western (Indian) Himalayan region by two widespread methods and suggest an integrated approach for prioritization for interventions. The vulnerability assessment in the current study was broadly based on the IPCC's definition of vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Of 832 households in 13 villages, 303 households were interviewed to assess their livelihood vulnerability due to climate change and its socio-cultural impact. Analysis of data reveals that the households located at lower altitudes are more at risk of vulnerability than settlements at higher altitudes in the Himalaya. The agro-pastoral-based livelihood was most vulnerable due to natural calamities, followed by water security, climatic stress and social networks. The observed patterns were complex and interlinked such as their remote habitations. A lack of linear infrastructure causes a high rate of out-migration, which further causes the loss of their traditional knowledge. High dependence of the community for livelihood on the climate-sensitive system such as agriculture and increased exposure to natural disasters is noticeable. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Joshi, NC; Rawat, GS

An integrated approach for the identification and prioritization of areas based on their livelihood vulnerability index: a case study of agro-pastoral community from Western Indian Himalaya

Mitigation And Adaptation Strategies For Global Change

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09962-5

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises questions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental.Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders' views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stakeholders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.Policy relevanceThe WIM was established to address the negative impacts of climate change, but whether attribution evidence will be required to link impacts to climate change is yet to be determined, and also controversial. Stakeholders show little awareness of PEA and agreement on its role, which raises important questions for policy. Dialogue between policymakers, practitioners and scientists could help to build a broader understanding of PEA, to determine whether it is relevant, and facilitate both its development and WIM high level decision-making processes.

Parker, HR; Boyd, E; Cornforth, RJ; James, R; Otto, FEL; Allen, MR

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2015.1124750

The relocation of chemical enterprises along the Yangtze River a necessary means of ecological protection in the Yangtze River Basin. Vulnerability assessment provides a new idea for the study of livelihood ability and compensation standard of employees after relocation. Based on the framework of Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptability proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the survey data of 410 employees of relocation enterprises in the Hubei Province of the Yangtze River Basin, this study firstly constructs a livelihood vulnerability evaluation index system and evaluation model, and analyzes whether the employees of relocation enterprises have the ability to cope with the risk impact brought by the Yangtze River Ecological Restoration policy. Then, we use multiple linear regression model to explore the relationship between the group's exposure, sensitivity, adaptability and livelihood vulnerability. Finally, we design a new compensation standard calculation method for special groups from the perspective of social cost, to alleviate their livelihood vulnerability and provide a theoretical basis and decision support for the government and enterprises to formulate and implement relevant resettlement standards. The results show that: (1) employees of all ages show a certain degree of vulnerability in their livelihood; (2) there are differences in livelihood vulnerability between male and female employees; (3) compared with other positions, the livelihood vulnerability of producers is relatively high, and the vulnerability index is unevenly distributed and internally differentiated; (4) a low family burden ratio, high education, convenient living conditions and complex social network can effectively reduce the vulnerability of employees' livelihood; (5) the key obstacle factors affecting the sustainable livelihood of families are living convenience, adaptability to relocation, policy understanding, children's burden ratio, education, and annual income per capita; (6) the alternative opportunity cost method can be used as the basis to determine the compensation standard of the relocated employees, which can better reflect the compensation effect of the opportunity cost in the existing definition of international compensation mechanisms and realize the leap from concept to action.

Zhao, X; Chi, C; Gao, X; Duan, YF; He, WJ

Study on the Livelihood Vulnerability and Compensation Standard of Employees in Relocation Enterprises: A Case of Chemical Enterprises in the Yangtze River Basin

International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health

https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010363

Climate-induced displacement has direct implications for non-economic loss and damage, including threats to health and wellbeing and loss of culture and agency. Displacement due to extreme events is particularly challenging for small island developing states (SIDS) given their high exposure and vulnerability to tropical cyclones. Devastating hurricanes in the Caribbean in 2017 exposed non-economic loss and damage associated with prolonged displacement of entire island populations due to complete destruction of communities. Such was the case in Ragged Island, The Bahamas, where the entire population was displaced. This study assesses national policies, plans, legislation and reports from The Bahamas to determine non-economic loss and damage experienced by displaced residents and how the policy landscape addresses these issues. We find that non-economic loss and damage was acknowledged neither by the policy landscape nor by Government actions, but that there were likely health impacts and disruptions to sense of place and connection to the island. Failure to consider non-economic loss and damage also contributed to assessments that costs of rebuilding outweighed benefits. While existing literature has acknowledged policy deficiencies on loss and damage at the national level in SIDS, this study illustrates real-world impacts of these deficiencies. The case of Ragged Island highlights the need for SIDS to take the lead in developing national responses to loss and damage as they are currently experiencing severe impacts, which are intensified by the lack of clear policies, plans or strategies. Key policy insights Climate-induced displacement is linked to non-economic loss and damage, particularly when displacement is prolonged and due to extreme events. However, these impacts are rarely addressed in national policies, plans or strategies. National policies that address climate-induced displacement and non-economic loss and damage are critical in order to reduce impacts experienced by displaced communities and expand feasibility assessments of rebuilding to include more than economic considerations. SIDS are currently experiencing non-economic loss and damage and should take the lead in developing national policies and strategies to assess, address and report on these impacts, particularly those SIDS that rely on international funders for recovery and response to extreme events.

Thomas, A; Benjamin, L

Non-economic loss and damage: lessons from displacement in the Caribbean

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1640105

Climate change is one of the multiple stressors facing African cities; these cities are responding by developing climate change action plans including adaptation and mitigation policies. Effectively mainstreaming climate change in city plans and operations and moving from ambition to implementation is complex. Multi-actor engagement, transdisciplinary knowledge interactions, co-designing and sustained co-learning are often required in such planning and action contexts. In this paper, we trace and reflect on the process of developing an adaptation planning process for the City of Johannesburg, South Africa. Given shortcomings of the previous adaptation responses attempted in the City, specifically that of poor uptake, we trialled a more intentional and directly designed, formative and interventionist approach using Cultural Historical Activity Theory (CHAT). We reflect on what we as a research team and City officials learnt in this process. Our findings emphasise that exploring the local context remains critical in understanding and surfacing tensions with potential climate change responses. Failure to be mindful of such issues will likely result in mere compliance, and potentially, maladaptation. Contrary to experiences in other South African settings, rather than attempting to engage all actors simultaneously, our experience suggests that working with a core group initially, before expanding the circle of actors, is needed. These actors serve as mediators and pivotal actors for learning and change, and, with appropriate authority and passion, can drive, coalesce, and potentially re-enthuse waning interest from within. They leverage already existing trust relationships and strengthen participation throughout the process. Combined, these factors are critical for ensuring implementation and legacy. Significance: Careful attention to a co-designed and emergent 'Theory of Change' can help both the process and design of engaged climate change research and help to reframe the climate action needed in urban contexts. The collaborative processes we applied increased awareness and engagement between officials around issues of climate change and, in particular, climate change adaptation. The lessons and opportunities gathered in the miniature expansive learning journey we trialled may be useful for others trying to embark on climate change adaptation journeys in cities in Africa and beyond.

Vogel, C; Mukute, M; Coetzer, K; Gwata, M

Creating a climate of change in the City of Johannesburg: Co-learning to adapt to climate change

South African Journal Of Science

https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2021/7929

Planned Relocation is a form of mobility in response to climate-related shocks and slow onset change. While the primary focus of the seminal Foresight report on Migration and Environmental Change dealt with mobility processes of migration and displacement, planned relocation was discussed as a viable, yet fraught adaptation strategy. Since the publication of the Foresight report in 2011, considerable research into planned relocation has progressed understanding, in part due to the emerging case study examples globally over the last 10 years. The authors of this article have undertaken research in communities across Australia and Fiji who have initiated and undertaken planned relocation processes, to varying degrees of completion and success. As part of the Research Topic-Climate Migration Research and Policy Connections: Progress Since the Foresight Report-in this article we look back at the lessons that emerged from the Foresight report, and provide key insights from our experiences, as well as through drawing on the broader literature, and through doing so offer lessons learned, and policy insights for planned relocation across these regions, and beyond. This research is especially relevant given the context of planned relocation in these two nations: Australia, a country that has experienced severe fires and flooding events over the last few years, which have raised important questions around the role planned relocation may play in future national adaptation discussions and planning, with buy-back schemes occurring across the country; and Fiji, a country at the forefront of planned relocation globally, with 800 communities listed as in need of relocation by the Government of Fiji, and numerous cases of completed, initiated and planned relocation emerging. Primary findings indicate: there are examples of people choosing to remain in sites of exposure despite relocation plans, making the notion of voluntariness essential; relocation has the potential to be a successful adaptation option if planned well with strong participatory governance; a need to think broadly and holistically around the needs and livelihoods of effected communities in relocation planning; and the need for longitudinal studies to track the implications and impacts (both positive and negative) of relocation in the long term.

Piggott-McKellar, A; Vella, K

Lessons learned and policy implications from climate-related planned relocation in Fiji and Australia

Frontiers In Climate

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1032547

Climate change migration is increasing and necessitates a re-examination of resettlement planning and processes. Although evidence-based selection of host places would improve climate change resettlement outcomes, few methods for the selection of host communities exist. Consequently, the information base on which most resettlement programs select a host place is often inadequate. This article proposes an empirical methodology to assess resettlement capacity. The methodology uses a hierarchical aggregation approach, where resettlement capacity indicator values are aggregated first into sub-dimension resettlement capacity scores, then further into dimension resettlement capacity scores, and finally into an overall resettlement capacity index. The aggregation allows for the calculation of the relative importance of the different sub dimensions and the two primary dimensions - assets and conditions. Using 75 indicators and a hierarchical min-max additive approach based on a five-kilometer grid, we create an overall resettlement capacity index for Ethiopia, with and without normalizing the relevant indicators for population size. The results show significant spatial variation in resettlement capacity, and a clear difference between using the population size normalized and non-normalized indicators, particularly regarding places with very low population density. High resettlement capacity sites are scattered in central, southcentral, and northern Ethiopia, and they also occur in small clusters along southern and northwestern borders. Moderate resettlement capacity sites occur more generally all over Ethiopia. Sites with low resettlement capacity cluster in southeastern and western parts of the country. Compared to the low and moderate resettlement capacity sites, those with high resettlement capacity are endowed with human, physical, and financial capital infrastructures. In all three capacity groups, assets contribute significantly less to resettlement capacity than conditions. Sites that are prone to natural hazards, both currently and in the future, are concentrated in the western and northern tips of the country. The calculated resettlement capacity indices are robust to potential missing indicators and change in the unit of analysis. The findings of the study can be used to identify areas for more comprehensive, localized analyses to determine their suitability for resettlement.

Walelign, SZ; Cutter, SL; Lujala, P

Resettlement capacity assessments for climate induced displacements: Evidence from Ethiopia

Climate Risk Management

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100347

Understanding the institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation (CCA) is critical to the adaptation process. The institutional changes that follow the introduction of a CCA measure affect certain areas of governance, including social, political, policy, and other domains that are already exposed to prevailing institutions. Thus, understanding CCA necessitates analysis of the interplays between and among institutions that exist within a hierarchical structure, as well as the examination of how institutions across different scales define the challenges in CCA implementation. This article contributes to this discussion by investigating the challenges in mainstreaming CCA into local land use planning in Albay, Philippines. It applies a four-stage mixed methodology and uses a modified Institutional Analysis and Development framework as its primary analytical guide. Its findings imply that: (1) mainstreaming CCA is a multi-scale, multi-setting endeavour; (2) mainstreaming CCA operationalization involves networks of interacting institutions and institutional arrangements; and (3) addressing the challenges in mainstreaming needs extensive institutional transformations that reach across the various institutional settings within these networks.POLICY RELEVANCEThis article advocates that, in designing strategies to address the challenges in mainstreaming CCA, analysts, planners, and policy makers must understand that the challenges exist within a network of institutional settings, and that these challenges encompass a chain of institutional interactions or interplays within this network. Accordingly, overcoming these challenges necessitates broad institutional reforms that go beyond the institutional setting where CCA is to be mainstreamed. Moreover, this article suggests that CCA policy making and analysis must focus on the vertical, horizontal, and network linkages and relationships created by institutional arrangements, as well as on the interplays facilitated by these arrangements. More importantly, there is a need to determine whether the institutional interplays between and among existing and planned institutions are complementary, counterproductive, conflicting, overlapping, neutral, or coexisting. Such knowledge will assist policy makers and analysts to understand the existing and potential barriers to, as well as identify opportunities for, adaptation. Consequently, the solutions to address the barriers, and the strategies that can take advantage of the opportunities, can be formulated effectively.

Cuevas, SC

Institutional dimensions of climate change adaptation: insights from the Philippines

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2017.1314245

The Paris Agreement's rapid entry into force, less than one year after it was adopted, reaffirmed that the international community would continue its efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change impacts. Yet structures created under the Kyoto Protocol, like the Adaptation Fund, were left in a state of unprecedented ambiguity because parties had to actively approve their continuation under the Paris Agreement, or risk seeing them fade into history. Drawing on narrative political analysis of negotiating texts and observations at meetings of the Conference of the Parties (COP), we argue that the Adaptation Fund negotiations became a particularly intense site for the contestation of justice-based norms in international climate policy. Developing countries' ardent and almost unanimous support for the continuation of the Adaptation Fund, despite the Fund's relatively small share of international climate finance, provides important insights into processes of norm contestation in international climate negotiations since the Paris Agreement, which marked a significant transition toward liberal norm structures. We explore how this unwavering support for the Adaptation Fund-and the claims to distributive and procedural justice it represents-could impact not only Fund governance and structure in the post-Paris Agreement period, but also the success of future adaptation efforts and the Paris Agreement itself. Key policy insights As global environmental governance moves towards a more liberal conception of justice, developing countries are holding on to specific issues, such as adaptation finance, to preserve distributive justice-based norms, deeply rooted in the history of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A critical tension in international adaptation finance is contrasting conceptualizations of justice and responsibility. While developed countries increasingly see their climate financing decisions as optional and in the same vein as development aid, developing countries argue that financing is an obligation for countries with historic responsibility for climate change. In order to resolve some of the stickiest issues on climate finance, pressing concerns about procedural and distributive justice must be addressed. Developing countries will focus on defending their position and power in the negotiations, rather than discussing technical decisions, until justice is acknowledged and preserved.

McGinn, A; Isenhour, C

Negotiating the future of the Adaptation Fund: on the politics of defining and defending justice in the post-Paris Agreement period

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1871875

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to identify the most vulnerable households and districts in Northwest Ethiopia and help decision-makers in developing and prioritising effective adaptive strategics and actions. Design/methodology/approach - A multi-scale analytical tool and hazard-generic socio-economic indicators were developed to identify and prioritise the most vulnerable households and districts in Northwest Ethiopia. Categorical principal component analysis with 36 indicators was used to develop weights for different indicators and construct a household intrinsic vulnerability index. Data were collected through key information interviews, focus group discussions and a household survey with 1,602 randomly selected households in three districts of Northwest Ethiopia. Findings - Drawing on intrinsic vulnerability index computation, this study highlights that low levels of education, low access to climate information and credit services, long distance travelled to fetch water and frequent food shortages are the dominant factors contributing to high levels of intrinsic vulnerability at district level, while lack of livelihood support and income diversification are the key drivers of vulnerability at household level. The findings of this study further show that the majority of households (78.01%) falls within the very high to moderately high vulnerable category. Disaggregating the data according to agro-climatic zones highlights that the prevalence of high intrinsic vulnerability is most widespread in the lowland agroclimatic zone (82.64%), followed by the highland (81.97%) and midland zones (69.40%). Practical implications - From a policy intervention vantage point, addressing the drivers of vulnerability provides a reliable approach to reduce the current vulnerability level and manage potential climate change-induced risks of a system. Specifically, reliable information on inherent vulnerability will assist policymakers in developing policies and prioritising actions aimed at reducing vulnerability and assisting in the rational distribution of resources among households at a local level. Originality/value - This study contributes to the existing vulnerability literature by showing how hazard-generic socio-economic indicators in the vulnerability assessment adopted by the IPCC (2014) are important to identify drives of vulnerability which ultimately may feed into a more fundamental treatment of vulnerability.

Yimam, DA; Holvoet, N

Assessing climate change vulnerability of smallholder famers in northwest Ethiopia: application of a household intrinsic vulnerability index

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2022-0019

Small-scale livestock farmers in the drylands of South Africa are highly exposed to agricultural drought-related food insecurity. Research has used descriptive analyses and missed the need to index the diversity of coping strategies used for managing agricultural drought-induced food insecurity. This study was conducted to bridge this gap using a two-step procedure. Initially, the study identified the farmers' coping strategies and food security status. A coping strategy diversity index was computed using the Shannon-Weiner method and its relationship with the food security status was determined. Secondly, the determinants of the coping strategy diversity index were explored using an ordered logit regression model after testing for the proportional odds assumption. A mixed methods approach was utilized and a standardized questionnaire was administered to 217 smallholder livestock farmers in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. The household food insecurity mean score (8.429 +/- 7.105) from the household food insecurity scale (HFIAS) was significantly related to a higher diversity of coping strategies. Similar results were reported for the household food insecurity access prevalence (HFIAP) status. The different forms of support (e.g., cash, food, training and assets) had a significant (p < 0.05) and positive effect on the coping strategy diversity index among the households. Education, access to credit and insurance facilities and the frequency of droughts significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the diversity of coping strategies under drought conditions. The utilization of cash reserves and investment stocks also significantly (p < 0.05) influenced the extent of coping strategy diversity. The study recommended strengthening the functional and technical capacity pillars of dealing with agricultural drought through strategic partnerships between the government and livestock value chain players. This collaboration should target affordable credit lines tailor-made for farmers to cope with agricultural drought. If well-coordinated, these interventions should reduce food insecurity prevalence, especially during drought conditions among vulnerable smallholder livestock farmers. Lessons from this study could also inform future research on the effectiveness of the current agricultural drought coping strategies while expanding the diversity clusters over space and time.

Bahta, YT; Musara, JP

Diversity of Food Insecurity Coping Strategies among Livestock Farmers in Northern Cape Province of South Africa

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040082

Background: Adaptation is a process of adjusting to the current or expected climate change. The varied adverse outcomes enable people towards necessary adaptation. People living in disaster-prone areas go through a relatively higher frequency of emergencies and exigencies. Gradually people learn to cope with stress and over a while, they develop various strategies for adaptation. The ability to rapidly adapt to such changes helps people to better fit in the environment and prepare themselves for future emergencies. There is no instrument available to measure psychosocial adaptation objectively. The current study reports on the development and validation of psychosocial adaptation instrument. Methods: Cross-sectional study design was adopted for the study. The study population consisted of people living in high-intensity hazard zones for cyclones, earthquakes, and floods in the Cuttack city of Odisha in India. The development of psychosocial adaptation instrument consisted of two phases. Content validity index, Kappa statistic, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were measured. Adopting the multistage sampling method a total of 400 participants were selected using the KISH method and were interviewed. Exploratory factor analysis was attempted to assess the factor structure. Further, the performance of items and total scale were analyzed using the item response theory approach. Results: The psychosocial adaptation instrument showed excellent validity of individual items (I-CVI range: 0.75 to 1.00) and good Kappa (Kappa range: 0.71 to 1.00). The Kuder-Richardson coefficient for the 50 items was (KR20 = 0.851) suggesting that the items have good internal consistency. The test-retest reliability ICC estimate of single measures was 0.916 (95% CI: 0.796, 0.959). Three items were removed as the discrimination parameters were found to be less than one in the item response theory analysis. Conclusion: The developed instrument is valid and has acceptable test-retest reliability. This instrument could pave a new way of quantifying the psychosocial adaption strategies that are widely used by people living in a disaster-prone area.

Zacharias, L; Christy, J; Roopesh, BN; Binu, VS; Das, SK; Sekar, K

Development of an instrument on psychosocial adaptation for people living in a disaster-prone area

International Journal Of Disaster Risk Reduction

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102716

The assessment of the vulnerability to drought hazards in smallholder farming systems dependent on rain-fed agriculture has recently gained global popularity, given the need to identify and prioritize climate hotspots for climate adaptation. Over the past decade, numerous studies have focused on vulnerability assessments with respect to drought and other meteorological hazards. Nonetheless, less research has focused on applying common measurement frameworks to compare vulnerability in different communities and the sources of such vulnerability. Yet, the crucial question remains: who is more vulnerable and what contributes to this vulnerability? This article is a case study for assessing the vulnerability to drought of smallholder farmers in two wards in Chivi district, Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe. This study is timely, as climate change is increasingly affecting populations dependent on rainfed agriculture. This assessment has been conducted by calculating the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC). This empirical study used data from 258 households from the two wards and triangulated it through Key Informant Interviews and Focus Group Discussions. To calculate the LVI, twenty-six subcomponents made up of seven major components, including socio-demographic variables; livelihood strategies; social capital; access to food, health, and water; and exposure to drought, were considered. To calculate the LVI-IPCC, we combined the three contributing factors of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). Our results indicate that the LVI forward 14 is statistically higher than for ward 19 (F = 21.960; p <= 0.01) due to high exposure to drought, food insecurity, and compromised social networks. Concerning the LVI-IPCC, ward 14 was significantly more vulnerable to the impacts of drought than ward 19 (F = 7.718; p <= 0.01). Thus, reducing exposure to drought through early warning systems, building diversified agricultural systems, and social networks are of high priority to reduce the vulnerability of the farmers.

Mugandani, R; Muziri, T; Murewi, CTF; Mugadza, A; Chitata, T; Sungirai, M; Zirebwa, FS; Manhondo, P; Mupfiga, ET; Nyamutowa, C; Mudereri, BT; Mugari, ZE; Mwadzingeni, L; Mafongoya, P

Mapping and Managing Livelihoods Vulnerability to Drought: A Case Study of Chivi District in Zimbabwe

Climate

https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10120189

We live in a rapidly advancing digital information age where the ability to discover, access and utilize high-quality information in a reliable and timely manner is often assumed to be the norm. However, this is not always the experience of researchers, practitioners and decision makers responding to the challenges of a rapidly changing climate, despite the billions now being made available for investment in climate change adaptation initiatives throughout the world and particularly in developing countries. In recognition of the importance of information in adaptation planning, Article 7.7 of the Paris Agreement sets out clear guidance for parties to develop, share, manage and deliver climate change knowledge, information and data as a means to strengthening cooperation and action on adaptation. This article provides some key lessons and insights on climate change information and knowledge management (IKM) in small island developing States (SIDS) from the perspective of Pacific SIDS. A situation analysis of current climate change IKM practices in Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu was conducted and key barriers to effective climate change IKM identified. The outcome of this article is a range of pragmatic policy considerations for overcoming common barriers to climate change IKM in the Pacific, which may be of value to SIDS more widely.Key policy insights The partnership approach of co-investigating climate change IKM barriers in collaboration with Pacific SIDS generated considerable trust, a shared purpose and therefore rich IKM lessons and insights.Turning climate change IKM aspirations into practice is significantly more complicated than expected, and requires a long-term commitment from both national governments and development partners.Pacific SIDS need to establish national guiding climate change IKM Frameworks that leverage rather than duplicate growing national investments in whole-of-government IKM.Reframing climate change IKM in the Pacific towards demand and user needs will be critical to ensuring widespread ownership and participation in IKM solutions that lead to greater adaptation and resilience outcomes.It is also critical that IKM activities in SIDS support the development of national capacity to scope, develop, deploy and maintain decision support systems.Federated IKM systems are ideal for encouraging greater IKM collaboration.

Mackay, S; Brown, R; Gonelevu, M; Pelesikoti, N; Kocovanua, T; Iaken, R; Iautu, F; Tuiafitu-Malolo, L; Fulivai, S; Lepa, M; Mackey, B

Overcoming barriers to climate change information management in small island developing states: lessons from pacific SIDS

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1455573

Simple Summary Adaptation strategies developed by sheep breeders against climate change are essential for sustainable production. This study was designed to determine the effects of climate change on perception, the risks of sheep farmers and the actions taken to mitigate these impacts. Nearly all farmers in both production systems agreed on the increased use of drugs and chemicals in their farming activities due to the increase in unknown and known disease outbreaks. The current study showed that transhumance farmers focused mainly on selling livestock as an adaptive strategy. In contrast, semi-intensive farmers concentrated on modifying their farm management and feed operations. Our findings show that semi-intensive farmers do not take deliberated and consistent action against climate change but adapt spontaneously. Sheep farmers' perceptions of climate change and its impacts and the adaptation strategies they consider to address these risks are of great importance in ensuring the resilience of farming practice. This study focused on sheep farmers' perception of climate change and the risks and actions taken to mitigate these impacts. A total of 68 surveys were carried out among sheep farmers (39 transhumance and 29 semi-intensive farmers) by two different representative production systems in Turkiye. Variables regarding the socio-economic profile, climate change impacts, and adaptation strategies were identified and analyzed. Principal component analysis and a Pearson Chi-square test were used to evaluate the data. Both farmers' groups accepted and perceived climate change, showing good awareness and perception. The farmers' attitudes towards adaptation to climate change were associated with production systems. Transhumance farmers had limited adaptation and coping strategies compared to semi-intensive farmers. Transhumance farmers focused mainly on selling livestock (mostly to cope with degraded natural grassland/feed deficiency) as an adaptive strategy. In contrast, semi-intensive farmers focused on modifying their farm management and feed operations, such as changing the feed ratio and supplement use, improving water and feed storage, and considering crop feed production. The knowledge obtained from this study could be helpful for farmers and policymakers who develop long-term small ruminant production strategies that consider the effects of climate change and adapt them to different farming systems in the Turkiye.

Yetisgin, SO; Önder, H; Sen, U; Piwczynski, D; Kolenda, M; Sitkowska, B; Yucel, C

Farmers' Risk Perception on Climate Change: Transhumance vs. Semi-Intensive Sheep Production Systems in Turkiye

Animals

https://doi.org/10.3390/ani12151992

The agri-food sector has contributed significantly to climate change, but has an important role to play in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The agri-food sector has many potential win-win-win strategies that benefit mitigation and adaptation, and also deliver gains in rural income and land management. Post-Soviet transition economies provide a good model for understanding some of the barriers to adaptation and mitigation in the agri-food sector, due to their significant unmet agricultural potential combined with inefficient energy use. Ukraine is used as a case study to explore the barriers and bridges to addressing climate change in a post-Soviet state. A variety of stakeholders and farmers were interviewed about mitigation and adaptation and the current response capacity. Grounded theory analysis revealed themes that are perceived to function as barriers including: pandering, oligarchs and market interventions; corruption and transparency; and survival, freedom and law enforcement. Foreign involvement and investment emerged as a bridge to overcoming these barriers. The results indicate that significant progress in climate mitigation and adaptation in the agri-food sector in Ukraine will only be achieved if some of the wider political and social issues facing the country can be addressed.Policy relevanceUkraine has considerable potential for both agricultural production and climate change mitigation; however, this potential can only be met by identifying and addressing barriers currently impeding progress. This article found that barriers to effective climate change are perceived to stem from wider post-Soviet transition issues. These wider issues need to be addressed during the implementation of climate policy since they are viewed to be important by a wide variety of stakeholders. International negotiations have provided little incentive for Ukraine to achieve effective mitigation, and corrupt practices further impair mitigation projects. In addition, export quotas currently function as a maladaptive climate policy and reduce both farmers' capacity in Ukraine and international food security. Meanwhile, foreign involvement, not just financial investment, but also the investment of ideas can provide a bridge to effective climate policy. The international community needs to provide a legal framework and assist Ukraine in adopting transparent processes in order to successfully execute climate policy.

Kopytko, N

Change and transition: the climate of Ukraine's agri-food sector

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2014.979131

Communities are already grappling with climate change's acute effects, evidenced by the growing frequency and intensity of extreme events worldwide. Strategies to encourage adaptation to climate change are urgently needed, particularly to preempt common ineffective and maladaptive responses. The United States provides a notable case study for testing the potential for economic incentives to drive voluntary adaptation in vulnerable coastal communities where mandates through building codes have proven insufficient to limit economic losses. This paper analyzes a novel survey of 662 coastal households in the hurricane-exposed state of North Carolina. Our findings suggest that homeowners who believe adaptation measures increase the market value of their homes are more likely to have homes with these upgrades. Furthermore, they are more likely to have taken actions to upgrade their homes after purchase and to express stronger intentions to invest in future upgrades. While perceived affordability plays a role in their upgrading actions, it seems unrelated to future intentions. Uptake, or intended uptake, of climate adaptation measures by coastal homeowners is not driven by the perceived efficacy in preventing future losses, challenging a tactic commonly used in policy messaging. Instead, reducing climate-related hurricane losses requires a greater valuation of climate adaptation measures in real estate markets. The need to elevate market value over efficacy in governmental and non-governmental efforts to promote adaptation may be relevant to adaptation for other types of extreme events or in other locations globally where real estate is a prized investment with the potential for significant returns. Key policy insightsThe conventional policy-driven messaging of adaptation efficacy - avoided losses as the reason to adapt - is not successfully driving homeowner actions.Reducing climate-intensified hurricane losses requires more certain benefits to homeowners; greater valuation of adaptation measures in real estate markets can provide such benefits.Perceived affordability is not the primary barrier to action, though policies should continue to encourage the development of cost-effective adaptation strategies.Mandatory disclosure during home sales and greater emphasis on adaptation measures in real estate listings can bolster discourse and valuation of measures to reduce vulnerability to climate-intensified extreme events.

Kijewski-Correa, T; Javeline, D; Kakenmaster, W; Chesler, A

Economic incentives for coastal homeowner adaptation to climate change

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2215207

Emergency responders often have to operate and respond to emergency situations during dynamic weather conditions, including floods. This paper demonstrates a novel method using existing tools and datasets to evaluate emergency responder accessibility during flood events within the city of Leicester, UK. Accessibility was quantified using the 8 and 10 min legislative targets for emergency provision for the ambulance and fire and rescue services respectively under normal no-flood conditions, as well as flood scenarios of various magnitudes (1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year recurrence intervals), with both surface water and fluvial flood conditions considered. Flood restrictions were processed based on previous hydrodynamic inundation modelling undertaken and inputted into a Network Analysis framework as restrictions for surface water and fluvial flood events. Surface water flooding was shown to cause more disruption to emergency responders operating within the city due to its widespread and spatially distributed footprint when compared to fluvial flood events of comparable magnitude. Fire and rescue 10 min accessibility was shown to decrease from 100, 66.5, 39.8 and 26.2% under the no-flood, 1 in 20year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year surface water flood scenarios respectively. Furthermore, total inaccessibility was shown to increase with flood magnitude from 6.0% under the 1 in 20-year scenario to 31.0% under the 1 in 100-year flood scenario. Additionally, the evolution of emergency service accessibility throughout a surface water flood event is outlined, demonstrating the rapid impact on emergency service accessibility within the first 15 min of the surface water flood event, with a reduction in service coverage and overlap being observed for the ambulance service during a 1 in 100-year flood event. The study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during emergency response to flood events at the city scale. It also provides a readily transferable method for exploring the impacts of natural hazards or disruptions in other cities or regions based on historic, scenario-based events or real-time forecasting, if such data are available.

Green, D; Yu, DP; Pattison, I; Wilby, R; Bosher, L; Patel, R; Thompson, P; Trowell, K; Draycon, J; Halse, M; Yang, LL; Ryley, T

City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events

Natural Hazards And Earth System Sciences

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017

In the assessment of storm surge vulnerability, existing studies have often selected several types of disaster-bearing bodies and assessed their exposure. In reality, however, storm surges impact all types of disaster-bearing bodies in coastal and estuarine areas. Therefore, all types of disaster-bearing bodies exposed to storm surges should be considered when assessing exposure. In addition, geographical factors will also have an impact on the exposure of the affected bodies, and thus need to be fully considered. Hence, we propose a fine-scale coastal storm surge disaster vulnerability and risk assessment model. First, fine-scale land-use data were obtained based on high-resolution remote sensing images. Combined with natural geographic factors, such as the digital elevation model (DEM), slope, and distance to water, the exposure of the disaster-bearing bodies in each geographic unit of the coastal zone was comprehensively determined. A total of five indicators, such as the percentage of females and ratio of fishery products to the gross domestic product (GDP), were then selected to assess sensitivity. In addition, six indicators, including GDP and general public budget expenditure, were selected to assess adaptability. Utilizing the indicators constructed from exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, a vulnerability assessment was performed in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay, China, which is at high risk from storm surges. Furthermore, the storm surge risk assessment was achieved in combination with storm water statistics. The results revealed that the Kenli District, Changyi City, and the Hanting District have a higher risk of storm surge and require more attention during storm surges. The storm surge vulnerability and risk assessment model proposed in this experiment fully considers the impact of the natural environment on the exposure indicators of the coastal zone's disaster-bearing bodies, and combines sensitivity, adaptability indicators, and storm water record data to conduct vulnerability and risk assessment. At the same time, the model proposed in this study can also realize multi-scale assessment of storm surge vulnerability and risk based on different scales of socioeconomic statistical data, which has the advantages of flexibility and ease of operation.

Liu, YM; Lu, C; Yang, XM; Wang, ZH; Liu, B

Fine-Scale Coastal Storm Surge Disaster Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China

Remote Sensing

https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12081301

Climate variability has significant impact on agricultural production especially in low-income countries where agriculture largely relies on rainfall, but only a few studies explored this issue at local scale. Therefore, this study was conducted to characterize local climate and assess farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate variability in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration. Historical rainfall and temperature data (1987-2017) were obtained from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while data of farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies were collected from a total of 120 household heads through survey questionnaire, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The results revealed that the area received an average annual rainfall of 568.3 mm with main rainy season (kiremt) contributing 70.7% to annual rainfall. The earliest and latest onset dates of kiremt season were 15th of April and 2nd of August, respectively. The amount of annual and kiremt rainfall totals showed low and medium variability with a coefficient variability (CV) of 18.3% and 27.7%, respectively, whereas short rainy season (belg) rainfall had high variability with a CV of 43.9%. Climate variability perception analysis showed that an overwhelming majority of the respondents (90%) perceived a decrease in the annual rainfall and 91.7% detected an increase in annual average temperature in the study area. Farmers of the study area were well aware of the changes in rainfall and temperature and thus employed a range of adaptation practices. Soil and water conservation practices (100%), off-farm income diversification (63%), planting drought-tolerant varieties (50%) and changing of planting date (45%) were the main adaptation strategies employed in the study area to avert the negative effects of climate variability. The findings imply that the area has been experiencing palpable changes in climate variables during the study period against which farmers exercised multiple adaptation strategies. However, farmers in the area are still face hardship as a result of climate variability which necessitates improving farmers' resilience through innovative mechanisms and better extension services.

Usmail, AJ; Maja, MM; Lakew, AA

Farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation strategies in the rural areas of Dire Dawa administration, eastern Ethiopia

Heliyon

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15868

The exposure of critical infrastructure to natural and human-induced hazards has severe consequences on world economies and societies. Therefore, resilience assessment of infrastructure assets to extreme events and sequences of diverse hazards is of paramount importance for maintaining their functionality. Yet, the resilience assessment commonly assumes single hazards and ignores alternative approaches and decisions in the restoration strategy. It has now been established that infrastructure owners and operators consider different factors in their restoration strategies depending on the available resources and their priorities, the importance of the asset and the level of damage. Currently, no integrated framework that accounts for the nature and sequence of multiple hazards and their impacts, the different strategies of restoration, and hence the quantification of resilience in that respect exists and this is an acknowledged gap that needs urgently filling. This paper provides, for the first time in the literature, a classification of multiple hazard sequences considering their nature and impacts. Subsequently, a novel framework for the quantitative resilience assessment of critical infrastructure, subjected to multiple hazards is proposed, considering the vulnerability of the assets to hazard actions, and the rapidity of the damage recovery, including the temporal variability of the hazards. The study puts forward a well-informed asset resilience index, which accounts for the full, partial or no restoration of asset damage between the subsequent hazard occurrences. The proposed framework is then applied on a typical highway bridge, which is exposed to realistic multiple hazard scenarios, considering pragmatic restoration strategies. The case study concludes that there is a significant effect of the occurrence time of the second hazard on the resilience index and a considerable error when using simple superimposition of resilience indices from different hazards, even when they are independent in terms of occurrence. This potentially concerns all critical infrastructure assets and, hence, this paper provides useful insights for the resilience-based design and management of infrastructure throughout their lifetime, leading to cost savings and improved services. The paper concludes with a demonstration of the importance of the framework and how this can be utilised to estimate the resilience of networks to provide a quantification of the resilience at a regional and country scale. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Argyroudis, SA; Mitoulis, SA; Hofer, L; Zanini, MA; Tubaldi, E; Frangopol, DM

Resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure in a multi-hazard environment: Case study on transport assets

Science Of The Total Environment

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136854

Background: In the current context of climate change, climate forecasts for the province of Quebec (Canada) are a lengthening of the thunderstorm season and an increase in episodes of intense precipitations. These changes in the distribution of precipitations could heighten the intensity or frequency of floods, a natural hazard that concerns 80% of Quebec's riverside municipalities. For the health and safety of the at-risk population, it is very important to make sure they have acquired necessary adaptive behaviors against flooding hazard. However, there has been no assessment of these flood adaptation behaviors to date. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop and validate five indices of adaptation to flooding. Methods: A sample of 1951 adults completed a questionnaire by phone. The questionnaire, specifically developed for this study, measured whether they did or did not adopt the behaviors that are proposed by public health officials to protect themselves against flooding. Results: The results of the item, confirmatory factor, and multiple correspondence analyses contributed to the development of five indices corresponding to the adaptation behaviors to adopt according to the chronology of events: (a) pre-alert preventive behaviors, (b) behaviors to carry out after the alert is issued, (c) behaviors to adopt during a flood not requiring evacuation, (d) behaviors to adopt during a flood requiring evacuation, and (e) post-flood behaviors. The results of this study also showed that people who perceive a risk of flooding in their home in the next 5 years tend to adopt more preventive behaviors and adaptation behaviors than those who perceive little or no risk at all. They also reveal that people who feel more adverse effects on their physical or mental health tend to adopt more adaptive behaviors than those who feel little or no adverse effects on their health. Conclusion: Across a series of psychometric analyses, the results showed that these flood adaptation indices could properly measure a vast range of adaptive behaviors according to the chronology of events. Therefore, researchers, public health agencies, and professionals can use them to monitor the evolution of individuals' adaptive behaviors during floods.

Valois, P; Caron, M; Gousse-Lessard, AS; Talbot, D; Renaud, JS

Development and validation of five behavioral indices of flood adaptation

Bmc Public Health

https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-6564-0

Purpose The purpose of this paper was to examine smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change risks, adaptation responses and the links between adaptation strategies and perceived/experienced climate change risks in South Gondar, Ethiopia. Design/methodology/approach This paper used a convergent mixed methods design, which enables us to concurrently collect quantitative and qualitative data. Survey data was collected from 352 households, stratified into Lay Gayint 138 (39%), Tach Gayint 117 (33%) and Simada district 97 (28%). A four-point Likert scale was used to produce a standardised risk perception index for 14 climate events. Moreover, using a one-way analysis of variance, statistical differences in selecting adaptation strategies between the three districts were measured. A post hoc analysis was also carried out to identify the source of the variation. The findings of this paper are supplemented by qualitative data gathered through focus group discussions and key informant interviews of households who were chosen at random. Findings The standardised climate change risk perception index suggests that persistent drought, delayed onset of rainfall, early termination of rainfall and food insecurity were the major potentially dangerous climate change risks perceived by households in the study area. In response to climate change risks, households used several adaptation strategies such as adjusting crop planting dates, crop diversification, terracing, tree planting, cultivating drought-tolerant crop varieties and off-farm activities. A Tukey's post hoc test revealed a significant difference in off-farm activities, crop diversification and planting drought-tolerant crop types among the adaptation strategies in the study area between Lay Gayint and Simada districts (p < 0.05). This difference reconfirms that adaptation strategies are location-specific. Originality/value Although many studies are available on coping and adaptation strategies to climate change, this paper is one of the few studies focusing on the linkages between climate change risk perceptions and adaptation responses of households in the study area. The findings of this paper could be helpful for policymakers and development practitioners in designing locally specific, actual adaptation options that shape adaptation to recent and future climate change risks.

Likinaw, A; Bewket, W; Alemayehu, A

Smallholder farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies to climate change risks in northwest Ethiopia

International Journal Of Climate Change Strategies And Management

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-01-2022-0001

The agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to climate change and also plays a very important role in the operation of the entire economic system, leading many studies to evaluate the possible agricultural direct economic damage (ADED) of climate change. However, this damage may have an amplification impact through the intricate industrial linkages that exist among sectors, and this impact may be even greater than the original damage. Therefore, to elucidate the economic cascading effect (ECE) in China caused by ADED and industrial linkage, this paper used the ARIO model to evaluate the total ECE and analyse the differences in the 19 sectors by taking the ADED under future annual mean temperature (AMT) increases of 1-5 degrees C as the input condition and adjusting the exogenous parameters to enhance the adaptability of the model; the goal was to assess the economic impact of climate change in China. The results show that (i) there is a significant amplifying impact of ECE due to industrial linkage under the influence of warming, ECE will be 4.24-5.25 times that of ADED, and the total economic impact (ADED thorn ECE) will exceed the GDP of the Chinese capital of Beijing in 2012 when the AMT increases by 1.5 degrees C, while it will exceed one tenth of China's GDP when it increases by 4 degrees C. (ii) Manufacturing will be the sector most affected by the industrial linkage under ADED, which accounts for 26.58% of total ECE, followed by agriculture (10.39%) and construction (8.5%). (iii) The decrease in cultivated land area will have a significant impact on the economy; when it is reduced to the minimum demand (1.41% less than 2012), ADED increases by 1.65 times and ECE increases by 2.35 times. This paper aims to provide a new perspective from which to evaluate the economic impact of climate change by studying ECEs behind sectoral interactions. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Huang, CF; Li, N; Zhang, ZT; Liu, Y; Chen, X; Wang, F

Assessment of the economic cascading effect on future climate change in China: Evidence from agricultural direct damage

Journal Of Cleaner Production

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123951

Given the increasing vulnerabilities and adverse effects of climate change, the development and implementation of adaptation strategies is essential. This is particularly so for Nepal where the agriculture sector - the mainstay of the country's economy - is highly vulnerable to climate change. As a country that loses much from climate change, local communities here have been adapting to climate change impacts using localized knowledge and practices. However, few studies have systematically reviewed the adaptation strategies of Nepalese farmers. We conduct such a review using the RepOrting Standards for Systematic Evidence Syntheses (ROSES) guidelines. The relevant literature is retrieved using Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar databases. The adaptation strategies of the Nepalese farmers are broadly categorized under seven themes and twenty-nine sub-themes: (a) access to financial resources and risk transfer; (b) diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices; (c) spatial adaptation; (d) climate smart agriculture; (e) common pooling of resources and social action; (f) traditional and local knowledge; and (g) food and water storage and security. Diversification of livelihoods, income sources and agricultural practices are the most common adaptation strategies employed. All the strategies practiced are autonomous, have a short term orientation and reactive in nature rather than being sustainable and proactive. The outputs of this study explore the significance of the local adaptation strategies and to what extent they should be integrated into the mainstream of national and local level development plans. These findings of Nepal - are relevant to neighbouring countries such as Bhutan, Bangladesh and India. Key policy insights This study finds that locally practiced adaptation strategies have a short term and reactive focus rather than being sustainable and proactive solutions. Farmers are confronting weak institutions and financial and managerial difficulties in coping with climate change and adapting to its impacts; hence, local-level adaptation strategies alone cannot cope with the harsh impacts of climate change. The research findings indicate the urgency and need to integrate or mainstream local adaptation strategies into national and local level development planning to strengthen adaptation practice and make it sustainable.

Rijal, S; Gentle, P; Khanal, U; Wilson, C; Rimal, B

A systematic review of Nepalese farmers' climate change adaptation strategies

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2021.1977600

Climate variability in recent decades has intensified in the SSA region, which makes it imperative to explore adequate adaptation and mitigation strategies to offset its current and future adverse impacts. Farmers' perception of climate variability can significantly influence their coping, mitigation, and adaptation potential. This study assessed farmers' perceptions of indicators and consequences of climate variability and explored factors influencing their perception of climate variability and adoption of climate coping strategies. A crosssectional survey design was used to sample 300 farmers in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Binary logistic regression models were used to determine factors that influenced the perception of climate variability, adaptation, and mitigation strategies based on three predictor sets, including socioeconomic, institutional, and environmental dimensions. Three climate adaptation and mitigation strategy groups adopted by farmers, including crop adjustment, nutrient management, and soil and water management practices, were subjected to binary logistic regression models. The core determinants of farmers' perception of climate variability included tropical livestock unit (TLU, p = 0.008), access to agricultural training (p = 0.022), change in agricultural production (p = 0.005), change in forest cover (p = 0.014), soil fertility status (p = 0.039), and perceptions of soil erosion (p = 0.001). Most farmers reported changes in all climatic indicators during the decade preceding the survey, including increasing temperature (80%), reduced precipitation (78%), and declining season lengths (76%). There were significant relationships between climate variability perceptions and coping strategies, with the soil and water management set showing stronger links with climate perceptions compared to crop adjustment and nutrient management strategies. Critical mitigation and adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability implemented by farmers included the use of fertilizer and manure in combination (71%), terracing (66%), and crop rotation (60%). Farmers' perceptions significantly determined the adoption of climate-smart agriculture technologies, and environmental determinants strongly influenced climate variability coping strategies. Therefore, while formulating climate sustainability-related policies, farmers' perceptions should be considered.

Mairura, FS; Musafiri, CM; Kiboi, MN; Macharia, JM; Ng'etich, OK; Shisanya, CA; Okeyo, JM; Mugendi, DN; Okwuosa, EA; Ngetich, FK

Determinants of farmers' perceptions of climate variability, mitigation, and adaptation strategies in the central highlands of Kenya

Weather And Climate Extremes

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100374

Purpose In October 2020, Vietnam was repeatedly hit by large storms, including Linfa, Nangka, Saudel and Molave, causing heavy rains and whirlwinds in the Central provinces of Vietnam. The heavy rain led to severe flooding in many localities. The water levels on major rivers broke records of historical flood events in 1950, 1979, 1999, 2007, 2010 and 2016. In response, this paper aims to quantify the impacts of 2020 flooding to support flood risk management activities and the relief agencies that can use the analysis. Design/methodology/approach This study demonstrates an approach to quickly map flood impacts on population, schools, health-care facilities, agriculture, transportation and business facilities and assess flood risks using available data and spatial analysis techniques. Findings The results show that all districts of Quang Binh were affected by the event, in which 1,014 residential areas, 70 schools, 13 health-care facilities, 32,558 ha of agriculture lands, 402 km road length, 29 km railway, 35 bridges on roads and 239 business facilities were exposed within flooded areas. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to direct or tangible impacts, including flooded residential areas, schools, health-care facilities, agriculture land categories, road networks and business facilities. Indirect or intangible impacts such as health, flood pollution and business disruption should be considered in further studies. Practical implications These detailed impact maps can support decision-makers and local authorities in implementing recovery activities, allocating relief and devoting human resources and developing flood risk management action plans and land-use planning in the future. Social implications This study investigates the context of flood impacts on population, schools, health-care facilities, agriculture, transportation and business facilities. Based on this research, decision-makers can better understand how to support affected communities and target the most at risk people with interventions. Originality/value This paper presents a framework to quantify the impacts of the 2020 extreme flood event using available data and spatial analysis techniques in support of flood risk management activities.

Luu, C; Bui, QD; von Meding, J

Mapping direct flood impacts from a 2020 extreme flood event in Central Vietnam using spatial analysis techniques

International Journal Of Disaster Resilience In The Built Environment

https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDRBE-07-2021-0070

Responding to global change represents an unprecedented challenge for society. Decision makers tend to address this challenge by framing adaptation as a decision problem, whereby the responses to impacts of change are addressed within existing decision processes centred on defining the decision problem and selecting options. However, this 'decision-making perspective' is constrained by societal values and principles, regulations and norms and the state of knowledge. It is therefore unsuitable for addressing complex, contested, cross-scale problems. In this paper we argue that simply broadening the decision making perspective to account for institutions and values is not enough. We contend the decision-malting perspective needs to be connected with a broader 'decision-context perspective' that focuses on how the societal system of decision processes affects the manner in which a particular problem is addressed. We describe the decision context as an interconnected system of values, rules and knowledge (vrk). The interaction of systems of vrk both creates and limits the set of practical, permissible decisions; the types of values, rules and knowledge that influence the decision and the capacity for change and transformation in the decision context. We developed a framework to analyse the interactions between values, rules and knowledge and their influence on decision making and decision contexts of adaptation initiatives, and applied it retrospectively to three projects on adaptation to sea-level rise. Our analysis revealed: (1) specific examples of how interactions between vrk systems constrained existing framings of decision making and the development of options for coastal adaptation; (2) limitations in the adaptive management strategies that underpinned the projects and (3) how the linked systems of vrk can allow adaptation practitioners to structure adaptation as a process of co-evolutionary change that enables a broader set of social issues and change processes to be considered. Adaptation projects that focus on the decision context represent a pragmatic alternative to existing decision-focused adaptation. By using the vrk model to diagnose constraints in decision processes, we show how the reframing of adaptation initiatives can reveal new approaches to developing adaptation responses to complex global change problems. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gorddard, R; Colloff, MJ; Wise, RM; Ware, D; Dunlop, M

Values, rules and knowledge: Adaptation as change in the decision context

Environmental Science & Policy

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.004

Co-production between scientific and Indigenous knowledge has been identified as useful to generating adaptation pathways with Indigenous peoples, who are attached to their traditional lands and thus highly exposed to the impacts of climate change. However, ignoring the complex and contested histories of nation-state colonisation can result in naive adaptation plans that increase vulnerability. Here, through a case study in central Australia, we investigate the conditions under which co-production between scientific and Indigenous knowledge can support climate change adaptation pathways among place-attached Indigenous communities. A research team including scientists, Ltyentye Apurte Rangers and other staff from the Central Land Council first undertook activities to co-produce climate change presentations in the local Arrernte language; enable community members to identify potential adaptation actions; and implement one action, erosion control. Second, we reflected on the outcomes of these activities in order to unpack deeper influences. Applying the theory of articulation complexes, we show how ideologies, institutions and economies have linked Indigenous societies and the establishing Australian nation-state since colonisation. The sequence of complexes characterised as frontier, mission, pastoral, land-rights, community-development and re-centralisation, which is current, have both enabled and constrained adaptation options. We found knowledge co-production generates adaptation pathways when: (1) effective methods for knowledge co-production are used, based on deeply respectful partnerships, cultural governance and working together through five co-production tasks-prepare, communicate, discuss, bring together and apply; (2) Indigenous people have ongoing connection to their traditional territories to maintain their Indigenous knowledge; (3) the relationship between the Indigenous people and the nation-state empowers local decision-making and learning, which requires and creates consent, trust, accountability, reciprocity, and resurgence of Indigenous culture, knowledge and practices. These conditions foster the emergence of articulation complexes that enable the necessary transformative change from the colonial legacies. Both these conditions and our approach are likely to be relevant for place-attached Indigenous peoples across the globe in generating climate adaptation pathways.

Hill, R; Walsh, FJ; Davies, J; Sparrow, A; Mooney, M; Council, CL; Wiser, RM; Tengö, M

Knowledge co-production for Indigenous adaptation pathways: Transform post-colonial articulation complexes to empower local decision-making

Global Environmental Change-Human And Policy Dimensions

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102161

The impacts of climate change have sparked policy responses at different governance levels. Studying the central adaptation policies and understanding the interactions and complexities of governmental and non-governmental stakeholders is essential in guiding policymakers at different levels of government to formulate policies and make investment decisions. With strategic and economic significance on the national level, Coastal Virginia has one of the highest rates of sea-level rise in the United States, instigating intensified and more frequent climate hazards such as flooding and storms. This paper strives to characterize the status of adaptation policymaking in this region through a novel keyword analysis method and a thematic analysis of interviews with the main adaptation decision-makers and stakeholders. We identify the central adaptation policies and programmes at the local, regional, state, and federal level, as well as the major relevant players. This provides a comprehensible narrative of adaptation policymaking, which could be exploited to further analyze governance gaps and adaptation challenges. The approach and methodologies of this research could be implemented in similar studies for other areas of the U.S. that are at high climate risk, possibly facilitating an informed national adaptation policy, long overdue by the federal government. The research is also relevant for other jurisdictions at risk of sea-level rise.Key policy insightsCoastal adaptation policymaking in Virginia has been a bottom-up and fragmented process initiated by most affected localities, exhibiting the importance of local initiatives in higher-level adaptation policies.The long-lasting impacts of 100 Resilient cities and Dutch Dialogues in the City of Norfolk highlight the value of fostering cross-geographic coordination and capacity-building programmes, confirming the importance of informal policy networks in learning and innovation for adaptation.There is a vast difference among localities in adaptation planning and implementation, creating the need for coordinating state leadership.Adaptation policymaking in Virginia has been influenced by political cycles with priorities drastically altered by each administration change, introducing significant uncertainty for continuation of policies.National policies and programmes, such as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, can significantly affect local-level policies and decision-making.

Eghdami, S; Michel, V; Shafiee-Jood, M; Louis, G

Climate adaptation in Coastal Virginia: an analysis of existing policies and main stakeholders

Climate Policy

https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2152773

Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together-with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a 'bottom-up' manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural crops for coastal regions against abiotic stress (induced by the water- and weather-related natural disasters), strengthens the foundations of sustainable agriculture undertaken by the resource poor small farm families.

Kesavan, PC; Swaminathan, MS

Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas

Philosophical Transactions Of The Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical And Engineering Sciences

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1822

One of the biggest challenges for South African food security is recurring drought. It is a major concern due to insufficient knowledge and the low levels of resources or livelihood assets available to farmers in vulnerable situations, thereby limiting coping and adaptation choices. The objective of this paper was to identify the current adaptation and coping measures used by smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on farmers' vulnerability to drought and the adaptive measures or strategies that are effective in the study area. In addition, we determined factors influencing their choice of adaptation strategies. In this way, the extent of farmers' vulnerability and how this affects the choice of coping or adaptation strategies during drought were determined. The multinomial probit model (MPM) was used to examine the factors that influence farmers' choice of coping/adaptation strategies in the study area. The results show that the respondents' human capital vulnerability to drought was very high compared to their economic and social vulnerability. Influences such as age, gender, and marital status contributed to their human capital vulnerability. The majority of the respondents implemented water-use restrictions as a coping strategy during drought periods. There were several reasons for this, such as the resources available, the effective coping strategy for that specific location/area, and the socio-economic status of the respondents. The inadequate contribution by the government to drought risk reduction, the age of the respondents, the monthly income of each household, and the inequality of decision-making powers between male and female respondents were also found to contribute greatly to choosing an effective adaptation strategy. This study contributes to the ongoing investigation of the adaptation strategies and coping measures used by farmers vulnerable to drought in arid and semi-arid areas in Africa. This is done by identifying effective adaptation and coping measures within the farmers' operational environment, unlike other studies that have only identified adaptation and coping strategies without examining their effectiveness in the given environment. Also, the inclusion of the human, social, economic, institutional, natural, and political forms of capital as determinants of the farmers' choice of adaption and coping measures provides relevant insights for efficient and sustainable policy design.

Muthelo, D; Owusu-Sekyere, E; Ogundeji, AA

Smallholder Farmers' Adaptation to Drought: Identifying Effective Adaptive Strategies and Measures

Water

https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102069

Due to global warming and rising sea levels, Honolulu, Hawai'i-a city on a remote island in the Pacific Ocean-is becoming more vulnerable to climate disasters. This article utilizes a mixed-method approach to investigate the challenges of maintaining disaster relief supply chains in the face of the emerging risks to Honolulu. We conduct eighteen in-depth interviews with key emergency management stakeholders to understand current approaches to supply chain risk management. Based on the research, three main challenges influence disaster preparedness in Hawai'i. First, the physical location of the island and the spatial distribution of risk, assets, and capabilities supporting emergency relief present large, unusual constraints not found in other jurisdictions. Second, the challenges of supply chain management, planning, communications and coordination are exacerbated during disruptions and disaster events. Unlike other states, with neighboring, contiguous jurisdictions, there are severe limitations to mutual aid and assistance from outside sources. Third, our research has also identified cultural challenges associated with social, political, and economic development and change. Stronger institutional collaboration both within the state and beyond its boundaries are key to increased supply chain resilience and effective response and recovery from disasters. We conduct social network analysis focusing on measures of density, degree, betweenness, and centrality to better understand the status and gaps in institutional collaboration. The social network analysis reveals that the current levels of collaboration are relatively low with significant gaps between government agencies and the private sector, as well as limited vertical collaborations with respect to supply chain management between federal, state and local partners. There is a need for stronger leadership with deeper engagement across stakeholders. A pathway forward includes: (1) vulnerability analyses focused on private sector supply chain management and public sector transport hubs, networks, and facilities, (2) exercises and training on emergency supply chain management, and (3) longer-term actions to support sustainability, self-sufficiency, local production, and community resilience. Our research is relevant not just to Hawai'i and other island and isolated communities but also to communities threatened by supply chain disruptions.

Shen, SW; Chang, RH; Kim, K; Julian, M

Challenges to maintaining disaster relief supply chains in island communities: disaster preparedness and response in Honolulu, Hawai'i

Natural Hazards

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05449-x