Daily Papers

With the proliferation of edge smart devices and the Internet of Vehicles (IoV) technologies, intelligent fatigue detection has become one of the most-used methods in our daily driving. To improve the performance of the detection model, a series of techniques have been developed. However, existing work still leaves much to be desired, such as privacy disclosure and communication cost. To address these issues, we propose FedSup, a client-edge-cloud framework for privacy and efficient fatigue detection. Inspired by the federated learning technique, FedSup intelligently utilizes the collaboration between client, edge, and cloud server to realizing dynamic model optimization while protecting edge data privacy. Moreover, to reduce the unnecessary system communication overhead, we further propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) approximation strategy on the clients and an uncertainty weighted aggregation algorithm on the cloud to enhance the central model training efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the FedSup framework is suitable for IoV scenarios and outperforms other mainstream methods.

Neural networks are known to produce poor uncertainty estimations, and a variety of approaches have been proposed to remedy this issue. This includes deep ensemble, a simple and effective method that achieves state-of-the-art results for uncertainty-aware learning tasks. In this work, we explore a combinatorial generalization of deep ensemble called deep combinatorial aggregation (DCA). DCA creates multiple instances of network components and aggregates their combinations to produce diversified model proposals and predictions. DCA components can be defined at different levels of granularity. And we discovered that coarse-grain DCAs can outperform deep ensemble for uncertainty-aware learning both in terms of predictive performance and uncertainty estimation. For fine-grain DCAs, we discover that an average parameterization approach named deep combinatorial weight averaging (DCWA) can improve the baseline training. It is on par with stochastic weight averaging (SWA) but does not require any custom training schedule or adaptation of BatchNorm layers. Furthermore, we propose a consistency enforcing loss that helps the training of DCWA and modelwise DCA. We experiment on in-domain, distributional shift, and out-of-distribution image classification tasks, and empirically confirm the effectiveness of DCWA and DCA approaches.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a critical aspect of artificial intelligence (AI) systems, particularly in high-risk domains such as healthcare, autonomous systems, and financial technology, where decision-making processes must account for uncertainty. This review explores the evolution of uncertainty quantification techniques in AI, distinguishing between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, and discusses the mathematical foundations and methods used to quantify these uncertainties. We provide an overview of advanced techniques, including probabilistic methods, ensemble learning, sampling-based approaches, and generative models, while also highlighting hybrid approaches that integrate domain-specific knowledge. Furthermore, we examine the diverse applications of UQ across various fields, emphasizing its impact on decision-making, predictive accuracy, and system robustness. The review also addresses key challenges such as scalability, efficiency, and integration with explainable AI, and outlines future directions for research in this rapidly developing area. Through this comprehensive survey, we aim to provide a deeper understanding of UQ's role in enhancing the reliability, safety, and trustworthiness of AI systems.

Uncertainty estimation is an essential and heavily-studied component for the reliable application of semantic segmentation methods. While various studies exist claiming methodological advances on the one hand, and successful application on the other hand, the field is currently hampered by a gap between theory and practice leaving fundamental questions unanswered: Can data-related and model-related uncertainty really be separated in practice? Which components of an uncertainty method are essential for real-world performance? Which uncertainty method works well for which application? In this work, we link this research gap to a lack of systematic and comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty methods. Specifically, we identify three key pitfalls in current literature and present an evaluation framework that bridges the research gap by providing 1) a controlled environment for studying data ambiguities as well as distribution shifts, 2) systematic ablations of relevant method components, and 3) test-beds for the five predominant uncertainty applications: OoD-detection, active learning, failure detection, calibration, and ambiguity modeling. Empirical results on simulated as well as real-world data demonstrate how the proposed framework is able to answer the predominant questions in the field revealing for instance that 1) separation of uncertainty types works on simulated data but does not necessarily translate to real-world data, 2) aggregation of scores is a crucial but currently neglected component of uncertainty methods, 3) While ensembles are performing most robustly across the different downstream tasks and settings, test-time augmentation often constitutes a light-weight alternative. Code is at: https://github.com/IML-DKFZ/values

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group S_n) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on S_n by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

Uncertainty sampling in active learning is heavily used in practice to reduce the annotation cost. However, there has been no wide consensus on the function to be used for uncertainty estimation in binary classification tasks and convergence guarantees of the corresponding active learning algorithms are not well understood. The situation is even more challenging for multi-category classification. In this work, we propose an efficient uncertainty estimator for binary classification which we also extend to multiple classes, and provide a non-asymptotic rate of convergence for our uncertainty sampling-based active learning algorithm in both cases under no-noise conditions (i.e., linearly separable data). We also extend our analysis to the noisy case and provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm under the influence of noise in the task of binary and multi-class classification.

Misclassification detection is an important problem in machine learning, as it allows for the identification of instances where the model's predictions are unreliable. However, conventional uncertainty measures such as Shannon entropy do not provide an effective way to infer the real uncertainty associated with the model's predictions. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven measure of uncertainty relative to an observer for misclassification detection. By learning patterns in the distribution of soft-predictions, our uncertainty measure can identify misclassified samples based on the predicted class probabilities. Interestingly, according to the proposed measure, soft-predictions corresponding to misclassified instances can carry a large amount of uncertainty, even though they may have low Shannon entropy. We demonstrate empirical improvements over multiple image classification tasks, outperforming state-of-the-art misclassification detection methods.

Dueling bandits is a prominent framework for decision-making involving preferential feedback, a valuable feature that fits various applications involving human interaction, such as ranking, information retrieval, and recommendation systems. While substantial efforts have been made to minimize the cumulative regret in dueling bandits, a notable gap in the current research is the absence of regret bounds that account for the inherent uncertainty in pairwise comparisons between the dueling arms. Intuitively, greater uncertainty suggests a higher level of difficulty in the problem. To bridge this gap, this paper studies the problem of contextual dueling bandits, where the binary comparison of dueling arms is generated from a generalized linear model (GLM). We propose a new SupLinUCB-type algorithm that enjoys computational efficiency and a variance-aware regret bound tilde Obig(dsum_{t=1^Tsigma_t^2} + dbig), where sigma_t is the variance of the pairwise comparison in round t, d is the dimension of the context vectors, and T is the time horizon. Our regret bound naturally aligns with the intuitive expectation in scenarios where the comparison is deterministic, the algorithm only suffers from an tilde O(d) regret. We perform empirical experiments on synthetic data to confirm the advantage of our method over previous variance-agnostic algorithms.

In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

In federated learning (FL), clients usually have diverse participation statistics that are unknown a priori, which can significantly harm the performance of FL if not handled properly. Existing works aiming at addressing this problem are usually based on global variance reduction, which requires a substantial amount of additional memory in a multiplicative factor equal to the total number of clients. An important open problem is to find a lightweight method for FL in the presence of clients with unknown participation rates. In this paper, we address this problem by adapting the aggregation weights in federated averaging (FedAvg) based on the participation history of each client. We first show that, with heterogeneous participation statistics, FedAvg with non-optimal aggregation weights can diverge from the optimal solution of the original FL objective, indicating the need of finding optimal aggregation weights. However, it is difficult to compute the optimal weights when the participation statistics are unknown. To address this problem, we present a new algorithm called FedAU, which improves FedAvg by adaptively weighting the client updates based on online estimates of the optimal weights without knowing the statistics of client participation. We provide a theoretical convergence analysis of FedAU using a novel methodology to connect the estimation error and convergence. Our theoretical results reveal important and interesting insights, while showing that FedAU converges to an optimal solution of the original objective and has desirable properties such as linear speedup. Our experimental results also verify the advantage of FedAU over baseline methods with various participation patterns.

We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop new online conformal prediction methods that minimize the strongly adaptive regret, which measures the worst-case regret over all intervals of a fixed length. We prove that our methods achieve near-optimal strongly adaptive regret for all interval lengths simultaneously, and approximately valid coverage. Experiments show that our methods consistently obtain better coverage and smaller prediction sets than existing methods on real-world tasks, such as time series forecasting and image classification under distribution shift.

Byzantine robustness has received significant attention recently given its importance for distributed and federated learning. In spite of this, we identify severe flaws in existing algorithms even when the data across the participants is identically distributed. First, we show realistic examples where current state of the art robust aggregation rules fail to converge even in the absence of any Byzantine attackers. Secondly, we prove that even if the aggregation rules may succeed in limiting the influence of the attackers in a single round, the attackers can couple their attacks across time eventually leading to divergence. To address these issues, we present two surprisingly simple strategies: a new robust iterative clipping procedure, and incorporating worker momentum to overcome time-coupled attacks. This is the first provably robust method for the standard stochastic optimization setting. Our code is open sourced at https://github.com/epfml/byzantine-robust-optimizer.

In Machine Learning, a benchmark refers to an ensemble of datasets associated with one or multiple metrics together with a way to aggregate different systems performances. They are instrumental in (i) assessing the progress of new methods along different axes and (ii) selecting the best systems for practical use. This is particularly the case for NLP with the development of large pre-trained models (e.g. GPT, BERT) that are expected to generalize well on a variety of tasks. While the community mainly focused on developing new datasets and metrics, there has been little interest in the aggregation procedure, which is often reduced to a simple average over various performance measures. However, this procedure can be problematic when the metrics are on a different scale, which may lead to spurious conclusions. This paper proposes a new procedure to rank systems based on their performance across different tasks. Motivated by the social choice theory, the final system ordering is obtained through aggregating the rankings induced by each task and is theoretically grounded. We conduct extensive numerical experiments (on over 270k scores) to assess the soundness of our approach both on synthetic and real scores (e.g. GLUE, EXTREM, SEVAL, TAC, FLICKR). In particular, we show that our method yields different conclusions on state-of-the-art systems than the mean-aggregation procedure while being both more reliable and robust.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for creating trustworthy machine learning models. Recent years have seen a steep rise in UQ methods that can flag suspicious examples, however, it is often unclear what exactly these methods identify. In this work, we propose a framework for categorizing uncertain examples flagged by UQ methods in classification tasks. We introduce the confusion density matrix -- a kernel-based approximation of the misclassification density -- and use this to categorize suspicious examples identified by a given uncertainty method into three classes: out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, boundary (Bnd) examples, and examples in regions of high in-distribution misclassification (IDM). Through extensive experiments, we show that our framework provides a new and distinct perspective for assessing differences between uncertainty quantification methods, thereby forming a valuable assessment benchmark.

Uncertainty estimation is a key factor that makes deep learning reliable in practical applications. Recently proposed evidential neural networks explicitly account for different uncertainties by treating the network's outputs as evidence to parameterize the Dirichlet distribution, and achieve impressive performance in uncertainty estimation. However, for high data uncertainty samples but annotated with the one-hot label, the evidence-learning process for those mislabeled classes is over-penalized and remains hindered. To address this problem, we propose a novel method, Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning (I-EDL). In particular, we introduce Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) to measure the informativeness of evidence carried by each sample, according to which we can dynamically reweight the objective loss terms to make the network more focused on the representation learning of uncertain classes. The generalization ability of our network is further improved by optimizing the PAC-Bayesian bound. As demonstrated empirically, our proposed method consistently outperforms traditional EDL-related algorithms in multiple uncertainty estimation tasks, especially in the more challenging few-shot classification settings.

In contrast to classical reinforcement learning, distributional reinforcement learning algorithms aim to learn the distribution of returns rather than their expected value. Since the nature of the return distribution is generally unknown a priori or arbitrarily complex, a common approach finds approximations within a set of representable, parametric distributions. Typically, this involves a projection of the unconstrained distribution onto the set of simplified distributions. We argue that this projection step entails a strong inductive bias when coupled with neural networks and gradient descent, thereby profoundly impacting the generalization behavior of learned models. In order to facilitate reliable uncertainty estimation through diversity, this work studies the combination of several different projections and representations in a distributional ensemble. We establish theoretical properties of such projection ensembles and derive an algorithm that uses ensemble disagreement, measured by the average 1-Wasserstein distance, as a bonus for deep exploration. We evaluate our algorithm on the behavior suite benchmark and find that diverse projection ensembles lead to significant performance improvements over existing methods on a wide variety of tasks with the most pronounced gains in directed exploration problems.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

Robust optimization provides a mathematical framework for modeling and solving decision-making problems under worst-case uncertainty. This work addresses two-stage robust optimization (2RO) problems (also called adjustable robust optimization), wherein first-stage and second-stage decisions are made before and after uncertainty is realized, respectively. This results in a nested min-max-min optimization problem which is extremely challenging computationally, especially when the decisions are discrete. We propose Neur2RO, an efficient machine learning-driven instantiation of column-and-constraint generation (CCG), a classical iterative algorithm for 2RO. Specifically, we learn to estimate the value function of the second-stage problem via a novel neural network architecture that is easy to optimize over by design. Embedding our neural network into CCG yields high-quality solutions quickly as evidenced by experiments on two 2RO benchmarks, knapsack and capital budgeting. For knapsack, Neur2RO finds solutions that are within roughly 2% of the best-known values in a few seconds compared to the three hours of the state-of-the-art exact branch-and-price algorithm; for larger and more complex instances, Neur2RO finds even better solutions. For capital budgeting, Neur2RO outperforms three variants of the k-adaptability algorithm, particularly on the largest instances, with a 10 to 100-fold reduction in solution time. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/khalil-research/Neur2RO.

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

The development of state-of-the-art systems in different applied areas of machine learning (ML) is driven by benchmarks, which have shaped the paradigm of evaluating generalisation capabilities from multiple perspectives. Although the paradigm is shifting towards more fine-grained evaluation across diverse tasks, the delicate question of how to aggregate the performances has received particular interest in the community. In general, benchmarks follow the unspoken utilitarian principles, where the systems are ranked based on their mean average score over task-specific metrics. Such aggregation procedure has been viewed as a sub-optimal evaluation protocol, which may have created the illusion of progress. This paper proposes Vote'n'Rank, a framework for ranking systems in multi-task benchmarks under the principles of the social choice theory. We demonstrate that our approach can be efficiently utilised to draw new insights on benchmarking in several ML sub-fields and identify the best-performing systems in research and development case studies. The Vote'n'Rank's procedures are more robust than the mean average while being able to handle missing performance scores and determine conditions under which the system becomes the winner.

In modern machine learning problems we deal with datasets that are either distributed by nature or potentially large for which distributing the computations is usually a standard way to proceed, since centralized algorithms are in general ineffective. We propose a distributed learning approach for mixtures of experts (MoE) models with an aggregation strategy to construct a reduction estimator from local estimators fitted parallelly to distributed subsets of the data. The aggregation is based on an optimal minimization of an expected transportation divergence between the large MoE composed of local estimators and the unknown desired MoE model. We show that the provided reduction estimator is consistent as soon as the local estimators to be aggregated are consistent, and its construction is performed by a proposed majorization-minimization (MM) algorithm that is computationally effective. We study the statistical and numerical properties for the proposed reduction estimator on experiments that demonstrate its performance compared to namely the global estimator constructed in a centralized way from the full dataset. For some situations, the computation time is more than ten times faster, for a comparable performance. Our source codes are publicly available on Github.

Federated learning has exhibited vulnerabilities to Byzantine attacks, where the Byzantine attackers can send arbitrary gradients to a central server to destroy the convergence and performance of the global model. A wealth of robust AGgregation Rules (AGRs) have been proposed to defend against Byzantine attacks. However, Byzantine clients can still circumvent robust AGRs when data is non-Identically and Independently Distributed (non-IID). In this paper, we first reveal the root causes of performance degradation of current robust AGRs in non-IID settings: the curse of dimensionality and gradient heterogeneity. In order to address this issue, we propose GAS, a \shorten approach that can successfully adapt existing robust AGRs to non-IID settings. We also provide a detailed convergence analysis when the existing robust AGRs are combined with GAS. Experiments on various real-world datasets verify the efficacy of our proposed GAS. The implementation code is provided in https://github.com/YuchenLiu-a/byzantine-gas.

Active learning (AL) in open set scenarios presents a novel challenge of identifying the most valuable examples in an unlabeled data pool that comprises data from both known and unknown classes. Traditional methods prioritize selecting informative examples with low confidence, with the risk of mistakenly selecting unknown-class examples with similarly low confidence. Recent methods favor the most probable known-class examples, with the risk of picking simple already mastered examples. In this paper, we attempt to query examples that are both likely from known classes and highly informative, and propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty-based Active Learning (BUAL) framework. Specifically, we achieve this by first pushing the unknown class examples toward regions with high-confidence predictions, i.e., the proposed Random Label Negative Learning method. Then, we propose a Bidirectional Uncertainty sampling strategy by jointly estimating uncertainty posed by both positive and negative learning to perform consistent and stable sampling. BUAL successfully extends existing uncertainty-based AL methods to complex open-set scenarios. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets with varying openness demonstrate that BUAL achieves state-of-the-art performance. The code is available at https://github.com/chenchenzong/BUAL.

Recently, Qiao, Duan, and Cheng~(2019) proposed a distributed nearest-neighbor classification method, in which a massive dataset is split into smaller groups, each processed with a k-nearest-neighbor classifier, and the final class label is predicted by a majority vote among these groupwise class labels. This paper shows that the distributed algorithm with k=1 over a sufficiently large number of groups attains a minimax optimal error rate up to a multiplicative logarithmic factor under some regularity conditions, for both regression and classification problems. Roughly speaking, distributed 1-nearest-neighbor rules with M groups has a performance comparable to standard Theta(M)-nearest-neighbor rules. In the analysis, alternative rules with a refined aggregation method are proposed and shown to attain exact minimax optimal rates.

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) address the challenge of model uncertainty by optimizing the worst-case performance over an uncertainty set of MDPs. In this paper, we focus on the robust average-reward MDPs under the model-free setting. We first theoretically characterize the structure of solutions to the robust average-reward Bellman equation, which is essential for our later convergence analysis. We then design two model-free algorithms, robust relative value iteration (RVI) TD and robust RVI Q-learning, and theoretically prove their convergence to the optimal solution. We provide several widely used uncertainty sets as examples, including those defined by the contamination model, total variation, Chi-squared divergence, Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and Wasserstein distance.

We study the problem of multi-task learning under user-level differential privacy, in which n users contribute data to m tasks, each involving a subset of users. One important aspect of the problem, that can significantly impact quality, is the distribution skew among tasks. Certain tasks may have much fewer data samples than others, making them more susceptible to the noise added for privacy. It is natural to ask whether algorithms can adapt to this skew to improve the overall utility. We give a systematic analysis of the problem, by studying how to optimally allocate a user's privacy budget among tasks. We propose a generic algorithm, based on an adaptive reweighting of the empirical loss, and show that when there is task distribution skew, this gives a quantifiable improvement of excess empirical risk. Experimental studies on recommendation problems that exhibit a long tail of small tasks, demonstrate that our methods significantly improve utility, achieving the state of the art on two standard benchmarks.

In federated learning (FL), weighted aggregation of local models is conducted to generate a global model, and the aggregation weights are normalized (the sum of weights is 1) and proportional to the local data sizes. In this paper, we revisit the weighted aggregation process and gain new insights into the training dynamics of FL. First, we find that the sum of weights can be smaller than 1, causing global weight shrinking effect (analogous to weight decay) and improving generalization. We explore how the optimal shrinking factor is affected by clients' data heterogeneity and local epochs. Second, we dive into the relative aggregation weights among clients to depict the clients' importance. We develop client coherence to study the learning dynamics and find a critical point that exists. Before entering the critical point, more coherent clients play more essential roles in generalization. Based on the above insights, we propose an effective method for Federated Learning with Learnable Aggregation Weights, named as FedLAW. Extensive experiments verify that our method can improve the generalization of the global model by a large margin on different datasets and models.

Multi-class classification methods that produce sets of probabilistic classifiers, such as ensemble learning methods, are able to model aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Aleatoric uncertainty is then typically quantified via the Bayes error, and epistemic uncertainty via the size of the set. In this paper, we extend the notion of calibration, which is commonly used to evaluate the validity of the aleatoric uncertainty representation of a single probabilistic classifier, to assess the validity of an epistemic uncertainty representation obtained by sets of probabilistic classifiers. Broadly speaking, we call a set of probabilistic classifiers calibrated if one can find a calibrated convex combination of these classifiers. To evaluate this notion of calibration, we propose a novel nonparametric calibration test that generalizes an existing test for single probabilistic classifiers to the case of sets of probabilistic classifiers. Making use of this test, we empirically show that ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.

Modern ML applications increasingly rely on complex deep learning models and large datasets. There has been an exponential growth in the amount of computation needed to train the largest models. Therefore, to scale computation and data, these models are inevitably trained in a distributed manner in clusters of nodes, and their updates are aggregated before being applied to the model. However, a distributed setup is prone to Byzantine failures of individual nodes, components, and software. With data augmentation added to these settings, there is a critical need for robust and efficient aggregation systems. We define the quality of workers as reconstruction ratios in (0,1], and formulate aggregation as a Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure using Beta densities. We show that the Regularized form of log-likelihood wrt subspace can be approximately solved using iterative least squares solver, and provide convergence guarantees using recent Convex Optimization landscape results. Our empirical findings demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances the robustness of state-of-the-art Byzantine resilient aggregators. We evaluate our method in a distributed setup with a parameter server, and show simultaneous improvements in communication efficiency and accuracy across various tasks. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/hamidralmasi/FlagAggregator

We propose a federated averaging Langevin algorithm (FA-LD) for uncertainty quantification and mean predictions with distributed clients. In particular, we generalize beyond normal posterior distributions and consider a general class of models. We develop theoretical guarantees for FA-LD for strongly log-concave distributions with non-i.i.d data and study how the injected noise and the stochastic-gradient noise, the heterogeneity of data, and the varying learning rates affect the convergence. Such an analysis sheds light on the optimal choice of local updates to minimize communication costs. Important to our approach is that the communication efficiency does not deteriorate with the injected noise in the Langevin algorithms. In addition, we examine in our FA-LD algorithm both independent and correlated noise used over different clients. We observe there is a trade-off between the pairs among communication, accuracy, and data privacy. As local devices may become inactive in federated networks, we also show convergence results based on different averaging schemes where only partial device updates are available. In such a case, we discover an additional bias that does not decay to zero.

When facing changing environments in the real world, the lightweight model on client devices suffers from severe performance drops under distribution shifts. The main limitations of the existing device model lie in (1) unable to update due to the computation limit of the device, (2) the limited generalization ability of the lightweight model. Meanwhile, recent large models have shown strong generalization capability on the cloud while they can not be deployed on client devices due to poor computation constraints. To enable the device model to deal with changing environments, we propose a new learning paradigm of Cloud-Device Collaborative Continual Adaptation, which encourages collaboration between cloud and device and improves the generalization of the device model. Based on this paradigm, we further propose an Uncertainty-based Visual Prompt Adapted (U-VPA) teacher-student model to transfer the generalization capability of the large model on the cloud to the device model. Specifically, we first design the Uncertainty Guided Sampling (UGS) to screen out challenging data continuously and transmit the most out-of-distribution samples from the device to the cloud. Then we propose a Visual Prompt Learning Strategy with Uncertainty guided updating (VPLU) to specifically deal with the selected samples with more distribution shifts. We transmit the visual prompts to the device and concatenate them with the incoming data to pull the device testing distribution closer to the cloud training distribution. We conduct extensive experiments on two object detection datasets with continually changing environments. Our proposed U-VPA teacher-student framework outperforms previous state-of-the-art test time adaptation and device-cloud collaboration methods. The code and datasets will be released.

Existing methods for uncertainty quantification incur massive memory and compute overhead, often requiring multiple models/inferences. Hence they are impractical on ultra-low-power KB-sized TinyML devices. To reduce overhead, prior works have proposed the use of early-exit networks as ensembles to quantify uncertainty in a single forward-pass. However, they still have a prohibitive cost for tinyML. To address these challenges, we propose QUTE, a novel resource-efficient early-exit-assisted ensemble architecture optimized for tinyML models. QUTE adds additional output blocks at the final exit of the base network and distills the knowledge of early-exits into these blocks to create a diverse and lightweight ensemble architecture. Our results show that QUTE outperforms popular prior works, and improves the quality of uncertainty estimates by 6% with 3.1x lower model size on average compared to the most relevant prior work. Furthermore, we demonstrate that QUTE is also effective in detecting co-variate shifted and out-of-distribution inputs, and shows competitive performance relative to G-ODIN, a state-of-the-art generalized OOD detector.

This paper investigates the problem of generalized linear bandits with heavy-tailed rewards, whose (1+epsilon)-th moment is bounded for some epsilonin (0,1]. Although there exist methods for generalized linear bandits, most of them focus on bounded or sub-Gaussian rewards and are not well-suited for many real-world scenarios, such as financial markets and web-advertising. To address this issue, we propose two novel algorithms based on truncation and mean of medians. These algorithms achieve an almost optimal regret bound of O(dT^{1{1+epsilon}}), where d is the dimension of contextual information and T is the time horizon. Our truncation-based algorithm supports online learning, distinguishing it from existing truncation-based approaches. Additionally, our mean-of-medians-based algorithm requires only O(log T) rewards and one estimator per epoch, making it more practical. Moreover, our algorithms improve the regret bounds by a logarithmic factor compared to existing algorithms when epsilon=1. Numerical experimental results confirm the merits of our algorithms.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

In this paper, we focus on the task of conditional image generation, where an image is synthesized according to user instructions. The critical challenge underpinning this task is ensuring both the fidelity of the generated images and their semantic alignment with the provided conditions. To tackle this issue, previous studies have employed supervised perceptual losses derived from pre-trained models, i.e., reward models, to enforce alignment between the condition and the generated result. However, we observe one inherent shortcoming: considering the diversity of synthesized images, the reward model usually provides inaccurate feedback when encountering newly generated data, which can undermine the training process. To address this limitation, we propose an uncertainty-aware reward modeling, called Ctrl-U, including uncertainty estimation and uncertainty-aware regularization, designed to reduce the adverse effects of imprecise feedback from the reward model. Given the inherent cognitive uncertainty within reward models, even images generated under identical conditions often result in a relatively large discrepancy in reward loss. Inspired by the observation, we explicitly leverage such prediction variance as an uncertainty indicator. Based on the uncertainty estimation, we regularize the model training by adaptively rectifying the reward. In particular, rewards with lower uncertainty receive higher loss weights, while those with higher uncertainty are given reduced weights to allow for larger variability. The proposed uncertainty regularization facilitates reward fine-tuning through consistency construction. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our methodology in improving the controllability and generation quality, as well as its scalability across diverse conditional scenarios. Code will soon be available at https://grenoble-zhang.github.io/Ctrl-U-Page/.

We propose a novel framework to study asynchronous federated learning optimization with delays in gradient updates. Our theoretical framework extends the standard FedAvg aggregation scheme by introducing stochastic aggregation weights to represent the variability of the clients update time, due for example to heterogeneous hardware capabilities. Our formalism applies to the general federated setting where clients have heterogeneous datasets and perform at least one step of stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We demonstrate convergence for such a scheme and provide sufficient conditions for the related minimum to be the optimum of the federated problem. We show that our general framework applies to existing optimization schemes including centralized learning, FedAvg, asynchronous FedAvg, and FedBuff. The theory here provided allows drawing meaningful guidelines for designing a federated learning experiment in heterogeneous conditions. In particular, we develop in this work FedFix, a novel extension of FedAvg enabling efficient asynchronous federated training while preserving the convergence stability of synchronous aggregation. We empirically demonstrate our theory on a series of experiments showing that asynchronous FedAvg leads to fast convergence at the expense of stability, and we finally demonstrate the improvements of FedFix over synchronous and asynchronous FedAvg.

Given a set of dissimilarity measurements amongst data points, determining what metric representation is most "consistent" with the input measurements or the metric that best captures the relevant geometric features of the data is a key step in many machine learning algorithms. Existing methods are restricted to specific kinds of metrics or small problem sizes because of the large number of metric constraints in such problems. In this paper, we provide an active set algorithm, Project and Forget, that uses Bregman projections, to solve metric constrained problems with many (possibly exponentially) inequality constraints. We provide a theoretical analysis of Project and Forget and prove that our algorithm converges to the global optimal solution and that the L_2 distance of the current iterate to the optimal solution decays asymptotically at an exponential rate. We demonstrate that using our method we can solve large problem instances of three types of metric constrained problems: general weight correlation clustering, metric nearness, and metric learning; in each case, out-performing the state of the art methods with respect to CPU times and problem sizes.

We consider a combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem for maximum value reward function under maximum value and index feedback. This is a new feedback structure that lies in between commonly studied semi-bandit and full-bandit feedback structures. We propose an algorithm and provide a regret bound for problem instances with stochastic arm outcomes according to arbitrary distributions with finite supports. The regret analysis rests on considering an extended set of arms, associated with values and probabilities of arm outcomes, and applying a smoothness condition. Our algorithm achieves a O((k/Delta)log(T)) distribution-dependent and a O(T) distribution-independent regret where k is the number of arms selected in each round, Delta is a distribution-dependent reward gap and T is the horizon time. Perhaps surprisingly, the regret bound is comparable to previously-known bound under more informative semi-bandit feedback. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm through experimental results.

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Federated learning (FL) has been a promising approach in the field of medical imaging in recent years. A critical problem in FL, specifically in medical scenarios is to have a more accurate shared model which is robust to noisy and out-of distribution clients. In this work, we tackle the problem of statistical heterogeneity in data for FL which is highly plausible in medical data where for example the data comes from different sites with different scanner settings. We propose IDA (Inverse Distance Aggregation), a novel adaptive weighting approach for clients based on meta-information which handles unbalanced and non-iid data. We extensively analyze and evaluate our method against the well-known FL approach, Federated Averaging as a baseline.

This paper investigates the problem of ensembling multiple strategies for sequential portfolios to outperform individual strategies in terms of long-term wealth. Due to the uncertainty of strategies' performances in the future market, which are often based on specific models and statistical assumptions, investors often mitigate risk and enhance robustness by combining multiple strategies, akin to common approaches in collective learning prediction. However, the absence of a distribution-free and consistent preference framework complicates decisions of combination due to the ambiguous objective. To address this gap, we introduce a novel framework for decision-making in combining strategies, irrespective of market conditions, by establishing the investor's preference between decisions and then forming a clear objective. Through this framework, we propose a combinatorial strategy construction, free from statistical assumptions, for any scale of component strategies, even infinite, such that it meets the determined criterion. Finally, we test the proposed strategy along with its accelerated variant and some other multi-strategies. The numerical experiments show results in favor of the proposed strategies, albeit with small tradeoffs in their Sharpe ratios, in which their cumulative wealths eventually exceed those of the best component strategies while the accelerated strategy significantly improves performance.

Monitoring machine learning models once they are deployed is challenging. It is even more challenging to decide when to retrain models in real-case scenarios when labeled data is beyond reach, and monitoring performance metrics becomes unfeasible. In this work, we use non-parametric bootstrapped uncertainty estimates and SHAP values to provide explainable uncertainty estimation as a technique that aims to monitor the deterioration of machine learning models in deployment environments, as well as determine the source of model deterioration when target labels are not available. Classical methods are purely aimed at detecting distribution shift, which can lead to false positives in the sense that the model has not deteriorated despite a shift in the data distribution. To estimate model uncertainty we construct prediction intervals using a novel bootstrap method, which improves upon the work of Kumar & Srivastava (2012). We show that both our model deterioration detection system as well as our uncertainty estimation method achieve better performance than the current state-of-the-art. Finally, we use explainable AI techniques to gain an understanding of the drivers of model deterioration. We release an open source Python package, doubt, which implements our proposed methods, as well as the code used to reproduce our experiments.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Reliably labelling data typically requires annotations from multiple human workers. However, humans are far from being perfect. Hence, it is a common practice to aggregate labels gathered from multiple annotators to make a more confident estimate of the true label. Among many aggregation methods, the simple and well known Majority Vote (MV) selects the class label polling the highest number of votes. However, despite its importance, the optimality of MV's label aggregation has not been extensively studied. We address this gap in our work by characterising the conditions under which MV achieves the theoretically optimal lower bound on label estimation error. Our results capture the tolerable limits on annotation noise under which MV can optimally recover labels for a given class distribution. This certificate of optimality provides a more principled approach to model selection for label aggregation as an alternative to otherwise inefficient practices that sometimes include higher experts, gold labels, etc., that are all marred by the same human uncertainty despite huge time and monetary costs. Experiments on both synthetic and real world data corroborate our theoretical findings.

Federated heavy hitter analytics enables service providers to better understand the preferences of cross-party users by analyzing the most frequent items. As with federated learning, it faces challenges of privacy concerns, statistical heterogeneity, and expensive communication. Local differential privacy (LDP), as the de facto standard for privacy-preserving data collection, solves the privacy challenge by letting each user perturb her data locally and report the sanitized version. However, in federated settings, applying LDP complicates the other two challenges, due to the deteriorated utility by the injected LDP noise or increasing communication/computation costs by perturbation mechanism. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel target-aligning prefix tree mechanism satisfying epsilon-LDP, for federated heavy hitter analytics. In particular, we propose an adaptive extension strategy to address the inconsistencies between covering necessary prefixes and estimating heavy hitters within a party to enhance the utility. We also present a consensus-based pruning strategy that utilizes noisy prior knowledge from other parties to further align the inconsistency between finding heavy hitters in each party and providing reasonable frequency information to identify the global ones. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first solution to the federated heavy hitter analytics in a cross-party setting while satisfying the stringent epsilon-LDP. Comprehensive experiments on both real-world and synthetic datasets confirm the effectiveness of our proposed mechanism.

Conventional uncertainty-aware temporal difference (TD) learning methods often rely on simplistic assumptions, typically including a zero-mean Gaussian distribution for TD errors. Such oversimplification can lead to inaccurate error representations and compromised uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for generalized Gaussian error modeling in deep reinforcement learning, applicable to both discrete and continuous control settings. Our framework enhances the flexibility of error distribution modeling by incorporating additional higher-order moment, particularly kurtosis, thereby improving the estimation and mitigation of data-dependent noise, i.e., aleatoric uncertainty. We examine the influence of the shape parameter of the generalized Gaussian distribution (GGD) on aleatoric uncertainty and provide a closed-form expression that demonstrates an inverse relationship between uncertainty and the shape parameter. Additionally, we propose a theoretically grounded weighting scheme to fully leverage the GGD. To address epistemic uncertainty, we enhance the batch inverse variance weighting by incorporating bias reduction and kurtosis considerations, resulting in improved robustness. Extensive experimental evaluations using policy gradient algorithms demonstrate the consistent efficacy of our method, showcasing significant performance improvements.

Recent studies have shown that episodic reinforcement learning (RL) is no harder than bandits when the total reward is bounded by 1, and proved regret bounds that have a polylogarithmic dependence on the planning horizon H. However, it remains an open question that if such results can be carried over to adversarial RL, where the reward is adversarially chosen at each episode. In this paper, we answer this question affirmatively by proposing the first horizon-free policy search algorithm. To tackle the challenges caused by exploration and adversarially chosen reward, our algorithm employs (1) a variance-uncertainty-aware weighted least square estimator for the transition kernel; and (2) an occupancy measure-based technique for the online search of a stochastic policy. We show that our algorithm achieves an Obig((d+log (|S|^2 |A|))Kbig) regret with full-information feedback, where d is the dimension of a known feature mapping linearly parametrizing the unknown transition kernel of the MDP, K is the number of episodes, |S| and |A| are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. We also provide hardness results and regret lower bounds to justify the near optimality of our algorithm and the unavoidability of log|S| and log|A| in the regret bound.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

We study contextual combinatorial bandits with probabilistically triggered arms (C^2MAB-T) under a variety of smoothness conditions that capture a wide range of applications, such as contextual cascading bandits and contextual influence maximization bandits. Under the triggering probability modulated (TPM) condition, we devise the C^2-UCB-T algorithm and propose a novel analysis that achieves an O(dKT) regret bound, removing a potentially exponentially large factor O(1/p_{min}), where d is the dimension of contexts, p_{min} is the minimum positive probability that any arm can be triggered, and batch-size K is the maximum number of arms that can be triggered per round. Under the variance modulated (VM) or triggering probability and variance modulated (TPVM) conditions, we propose a new variance-adaptive algorithm VAC^2-UCB and derive a regret bound O(dT), which is independent of the batch-size K. As a valuable by-product, our analysis technique and variance-adaptive algorithm can be applied to the CMAB-T and C^2MAB setting, improving existing results there as well. We also include experiments that demonstrate the improved performance of our algorithms compared with benchmark algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Semi-supervised crowd counting is an important yet challenging task. A popular approach is to iteratively generate pseudo-labels for unlabeled data and add them to the training set. The key is to use uncertainty to select reliable pseudo-labels. In this paper, we propose a novel method to calibrate model uncertainty for crowd counting. Our method takes a supervised uncertainty estimation strategy to train the model through a surrogate function. This ensures the uncertainty is well controlled throughout the training. We propose a matching-based patch-wise surrogate function to better approximate uncertainty for crowd counting tasks. The proposed method pays a sufficient amount of attention to details, while maintaining a proper granularity. Altogether our method is able to generate reliable uncertainty estimation, high quality pseudolabels, and achieve state-of-the-art performance in semisupervised crowd counting.

We investigate the problem of stochastic, combinatorial multi-armed bandits where the learner only has access to bandit feedback and the reward function can be non-linear. We provide a general framework for adapting discrete offline approximation algorithms into sublinear alpha-regret methods that only require bandit feedback, achieving Oleft(T^2{3}log(T)^1{3}right) expected cumulative alpha-regret dependence on the horizon T. The framework only requires the offline algorithms to be robust to small errors in function evaluation. The adaptation procedure does not even require explicit knowledge of the offline approximation algorithm -- the offline algorithm can be used as black box subroutine. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed framework, the proposed framework is applied to multiple problems in submodular maximization, adapting approximation algorithms for cardinality and for knapsack constraints. The new CMAB algorithms for knapsack constraints outperform a full-bandit method developed for the adversarial setting in experiments with real-world data.

When trying to solve a computational problem, we are often faced with a choice between algorithms that are guaranteed to return the right answer but differ in their runtime distributions (e.g., SAT solvers, sorting algorithms). This paper aims to lay theoretical foundations for such choices by formalizing preferences over runtime distributions. It might seem that we should simply prefer the algorithm that minimizes expected runtime. However, such preferences would be driven by exactly how slow our algorithm is on bad inputs, whereas in practice we are typically willing to cut off occasional, sufficiently long runs before they finish. We propose a principled alternative, taking a utility-theoretic approach to characterize the scoring functions that describe preferences over algorithms. These functions depend on the way our value for solving our problem decreases with time and on the distribution from which captimes are drawn. We describe examples of realistic utility functions and show how to leverage a maximum-entropy approach for modeling underspecified captime distributions. Finally, we show how to efficiently estimate an algorithm's expected utility from runtime samples.

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In this paper, we propose a distributed sampling scheme based on the alternating direction method of multipliers, which is commonly used in the optimization literature due to its fast convergence. In contrast to distributed optimization, distributed sampling allows for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference tasks. We provide both theoretical guarantees of our algorithm's convergence and experimental evidence of its superiority to the state-of-the-art. For our theoretical results, we use convex optimization tools to establish a fundamental inequality on the generated local sample iterates. This inequality enables us to show convergence of the distribution associated with these iterates to the underlying target distribution in Wasserstein distance. In simulation, we deploy our algorithm on linear and logistic regression tasks and illustrate its fast convergence compared to existing gradient-based methods.

Most mobile robots for indoor use rely on 2D laser scanners for localization, mapping and navigation. These sensors, however, cannot detect transparent surfaces or measure the full occupancy of complex objects such as tables. Deep Neural Networks have recently been proposed to overcome this limitation by learning to estimate object occupancy. These estimates are nevertheless subject to uncertainty, making the evaluation of their confidence an important issue for these measures to be useful for autonomous navigation and mapping. In this work we approach the problem from two sides. First we discuss uncertainty estimation in deep models, proposing a solution based on a fully convolutional neural network. The proposed architecture is not restricted by the assumption that the uncertainty follows a Gaussian model, as in the case of many popular solutions for deep model uncertainty estimation, such as Monte-Carlo Dropout. We present results showing that uncertainty over obstacle distances is actually better modeled with a Laplace distribution. Then, we propose a novel approach to build maps based on Deep Neural Network uncertainty models. In particular, we present an algorithm to build a map that includes information over obstacle distance estimates while taking into account the level of uncertainty in each estimate. We show how the constructed map can be used to increase global navigation safety by planning trajectories which avoid areas of high uncertainty, enabling higher autonomy for mobile robots in indoor settings.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

Many optimization problems are inherently multi-objective. To address them, we formalize Jacobian descent (JD), a direct generalization of gradient descent for vector-valued functions. Each step of this algorithm relies on a Jacobian matrix consisting of one gradient per objective. The aggregator, responsible for reducing this matrix into an update vector, characterizes JD. While the multi-task learning literature already contains a variety of aggregators, they often lack some natural properties. In particular, the update should not conflict with any objective and should scale proportionally to the norm of each gradient. We propose a new aggregator specifically designed to satisfy this. Emphasizing conflict between objectives, we then highlight direct applications for our methods. Most notably, we introduce instance-wise risk minimization (IWRM), a learning paradigm in which the loss of each training example is considered a separate objective. On simple image classification tasks, IWRM exhibits promising results compared to the direct minimization of the average loss. The performance of our aggregator in those experiments also corroborates our theoretical findings. Lastly, as speed is the main limitation of JD, we provide a path towards a more efficient implementation.

Current graph neural networks (GNNs) that tackle node classification on graphs tend to only focus on nodewise scores and are solely evaluated by nodewise metrics. This limits uncertainty estimation on graphs since nodewise marginals do not fully characterize the joint distribution given the graph structure. In this work, we propose novel edgewise metrics, namely the edgewise expected calibration error (ECE) and the agree/disagree ECEs, which provide criteria for uncertainty estimation on graphs beyond the nodewise setting. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed edgewise metrics can complement the nodewise results and yield additional insights. Moreover, we show that GNN models which consider the structured prediction problem on graphs tend to have better uncertainty estimations, which illustrates the benefit of going beyond the nodewise setting.

Domain generalization (DG) aims to tackle the distribution shift between training domains and unknown target domains. Generating new domains is one of the most effective approaches, yet its performance gain depends on the distribution discrepancy between the generated and target domains. Distributionally robust optimization is promising to tackle distribution discrepancy by exploring domains in an uncertainty set. However, the uncertainty set may be overwhelmingly large, leading to low-confidence prediction in DG. It is because a large uncertainty set could introduce domains containing semantically different factors from training domains. To address this issue, we propose to perform a moderately distributional exploration (MODE) for domain generalization. Specifically, MODE performs distribution exploration in an uncertainty subset that shares the same semantic factors with the training domains. We show that MODE can endow models with provable generalization performance on unknown target domains. The experimental results show that MODE achieves competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

In real-world scenarios, typical visual recognition systems could fail under two major causes, i.e., the misclassification between known classes and the excusable misbehavior on unknown-class images. To tackle these deficiencies, flexible visual recognition should dynamically predict multiple classes when they are unconfident between choices and reject making predictions when the input is entirely out of the training distribution. Two challenges emerge along with this novel task. First, prediction uncertainty should be separately quantified as confusion depicting inter-class uncertainties and ignorance identifying out-of-distribution samples. Second, both confusion and ignorance should be comparable between samples to enable effective decision-making. In this paper, we propose to model these two sources of uncertainty explicitly with the theory of Subjective Logic. Regarding recognition as an evidence-collecting process, confusion is then defined as conflicting evidence, while ignorance is the absence of evidence. By predicting Dirichlet concentration parameters for singletons, comprehensive subjective opinions, including confusion and ignorance, could be achieved via further evidence combinations. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data analysis, visual recognition, and open-set detection, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods in quantifying two sources of uncertainties and dealing with flexible recognition.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

We consider the distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with spectral risk-based uncertainty set and f-divergence penalty. This formulation includes common risk-sensitive learning objectives such as regularized condition value-at-risk (CVaR) and average top-k loss. We present Prospect, a stochastic gradient-based algorithm that only requires tuning a single learning rate hyperparameter, and prove that it enjoys linear convergence for smooth regularized losses. This contrasts with previous algorithms that either require tuning multiple hyperparameters or potentially fail to converge due to biased gradient estimates or inadequate regularization. Empirically, we show that Prospect can converge 2-3times faster than baselines such as stochastic gradient and stochastic saddle-point methods on distribution shift and fairness benchmarks spanning tabular, vision, and language domains.

Deep Ensembles are a simple, reliable, and effective method of improving both the predictive performance and uncertainty estimates of deep learning approaches. However, they are widely criticised as being computationally expensive, due to the need to deploy multiple independent models. Recent work has challenged this view, showing that for predictive accuracy, ensembles can be more computationally efficient (at inference) than scaling single models within an architecture family. This is achieved by cascading ensemble members via an early-exit approach. In this work, we investigate extending these efficiency gains to tasks related to uncertainty estimation. As many such tasks, e.g. selective classification, are binary classification, our key novel insight is to only pass samples within a window close to the binary decision boundary to later cascade stages. Experiments on ImageNet-scale data across a number of network architectures and uncertainty tasks show that the proposed window-based early-exit approach is able to achieve a superior uncertainty-computation trade-off compared to scaling single models. For example, a cascaded EfficientNet-B2 ensemble is able to achieve similar coverage at 5% risk as a single EfficientNet-B4 with <30% the number of MACs. We also find that cascades/ensembles give more reliable improvements on OOD data vs scaling models up. Code for this work is available at: https://github.com/Guoxoug/window-early-exit.

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend conformal prediction to the federated learning setting. The main challenge we face is data heterogeneity across the clients - this violates the fundamental tenet of exchangeability required for conformal prediction. We propose a weaker notion of partial exchangeability, better suited to the FL setting, and use it to develop the Federated Conformal Prediction (FCP) framework. We show FCP enjoys rigorous theoretical guarantees and excellent empirical performance on several computer vision and medical imaging datasets. Our results demonstrate a practical approach to incorporating meaningful uncertainty quantification in distributed and heterogeneous environments. We provide code used in our experiments https://github.com/clu5/federated-conformal.

A probabilistic classifier with reliable predictive uncertainties i) fits successfully to the target domain data, ii) provides calibrated class probabilities in difficult regions of the target domain (e.g.\ class overlap), and iii) accurately identifies queries coming out of the target domain and rejects them. We introduce an original combination of Evidential Deep Learning, Neural Processes, and Neural Turing Machines capable of providing all three essential properties mentioned above for total uncertainty quantification. We observe our method on five classification tasks to be the only one that can excel all three aspects of total calibration with a single standalone predictor. Our unified solution delivers an implementation-friendly and compute efficient recipe for safety clearance and provides intellectual economy to an investigation of algorithmic roots of epistemic awareness in deep neural nets.

Accurate uncertainty measurement is a key step to building robust and reliable machine learning systems. Conformal prediction is a distribution-free uncertainty quantification algorithm popular for its ease of implementation, statistical coverage guarantees, and versatility for underlying forecasters. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms for time series are limited to single-step prediction without considering the temporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a Copula Conformal Prediction algorithm for multivariate, multi-step Time Series forecasting, CopulaCPTS. We prove that CopulaCPTS has finite sample validity guarantee. On several synthetic and real-world multivariate time series datasets, we show that CopulaCPTS produces more calibrated and sharp confidence intervals for multi-step prediction tasks than existing techniques.

A modified LAB algorithm is introduced in this paper. It builds upon the original LAB algorithm (Reddy et al. 2023), which is a socio-inspired algorithm that models competitive and learning behaviours within a group, establishing hierarchical roles. The proposed algorithm incorporates the roulette wheel approach and a reduction factor introducing inter-group competition and iteratively narrowing down the sample space. The algorithm is validated by solving the benchmark test problems from CEC 2005 and CEC 2017. The solutions are validated using standard statistical tests such as two-sided and pairwise signed rank Wilcoxon test and Friedman rank test. The algorithm exhibited improved and superior robustness as well as search space exploration capabilities. Furthermore, a Clustering-Based Search Space Reduction (C-SSR) method is proposed, making the algorithm capable to solve constrained problems. The C-SSR method enables the algorithm to identify clusters of feasible regions, satisfying the constraints and contributing to achieve the optimal solution. This method demonstrates its effectiveness as a potential alternative to traditional constraint handling techniques. The results obtained using the Modified LAB algorithm are then compared with those achieved by other recent metaheuristic algorithms.

When deploying machine learning models in high-stakes real-world environments such as health care, it is crucial to accurately assess the uncertainty concerning a model's prediction on abnormal inputs. However, there is a scarcity of literature analyzing this problem on medical data, especially on mixed-type tabular data such as Electronic Health Records. We close this gap by presenting a series of tests including a large variety of contemporary uncertainty estimation techniques, in order to determine whether they are able to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) patients. In contrast to previous work, we design tests on realistic and clinically relevant OOD groups, and run experiments on real-world medical data. We find that almost all techniques fail to achieve convincing results, partly disagreeing with earlier findings.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

The prevalence and importance of algorithmic two-sided marketplaces has drawn attention to the issue of fairness in such settings. Algorithmic decisions are used in assigning students to schools, users to advertisers, and applicants to job interviews. These decisions should heed the preferences of individuals, and simultaneously be fair with respect to their merits (synonymous with fit, future performance, or need). Merits conditioned on observable features are always uncertain, a fact that is exacerbated by the widespread use of machine learning algorithms to infer merit from the observables. As our key contribution, we carefully axiomatize a notion of individual fairness in the two-sided marketplace setting which respects the uncertainty in the merits; indeed, it simultaneously recognizes uncertainty as the primary potential cause of unfairness and an approach to address it. We design a linear programming framework to find fair utility-maximizing distributions over allocations, and we show that the linear program is robust to perturbations in the estimated parameters of the uncertain merit distributions, a key property in combining the approach with machine learning techniques.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Metric space magnitude, an active field of research in algebraic topology, is a scalar quantity that summarizes the effective number of distinct points that live in a general metric space. The {\em weighting vector} is a closely-related concept that captures, in a nontrivial way, much of the underlying geometry of the original metric space. Recent work has demonstrated that when the metric space is Euclidean, the weighting vector serves as an effective tool for boundary detection. We recast this result and show the weighting vector may be viewed as a solution to a kernelized SVM. As one consequence, we apply this new insight to the task of outlier detection, and we demonstrate performance that is competitive or exceeds performance of state-of-the-art techniques on benchmark data sets. Under mild assumptions, we show the weighting vector, which has computational cost of matrix inversion, can be efficiently approximated in linear time. We show how nearest neighbor methods can approximate solutions to the minimization problems defined by SVMs.

A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these deterministic uncertainty methods (DUMs) achieve strong performance on detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data while adding negligible computational costs at inference time. However, it remains unclear whether DUMs are well calibrated and can seamlessly scale to real-world applications - both prerequisites for their practical deployment. To this end, we first provide a taxonomy of DUMs, and evaluate their calibration under continuous distributional shifts. Then, we extend them to semantic segmentation. We find that, while DUMs scale to realistic vision tasks and perform well on OOD detection, the practicality of current methods is undermined by poor calibration under distributional shifts.

This work proposes a procedure for designing algorithms for specific adaptive data collection tasks like active learning and pure-exploration multi-armed bandits. Unlike the design of traditional adaptive algorithms that rely on concentration of measure and careful analysis to justify the correctness and sample complexity of the procedure, our adaptive algorithm is learned via adversarial training over equivalence classes of problems derived from information theoretic lower bounds. In particular, a single adaptive learning algorithm is learned that competes with the best adaptive algorithm learned for each equivalence class. Our procedure takes as input just the available queries, set of hypotheses, loss function, and total query budget. This is in contrast to existing meta-learning work that learns an adaptive algorithm relative to an explicit, user-defined subset or prior distribution over problems which can be challenging to define and be mismatched to the instance encountered at test time. This work is particularly focused on the regime when the total query budget is very small, such as a few dozen, which is much smaller than those budgets typically considered by theoretically derived algorithms. We perform synthetic experiments to justify the stability and effectiveness of the training procedure, and then evaluate the method on tasks derived from real data including a noisy 20 Questions game and a joke recommendation task.

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

A fundamental question in adversarial machine learning is whether a robust classifier exists for a given task. A line of research has made some progress towards this goal by studying the concentration of measure, but we argue standard concentration fails to fully characterize the intrinsic robustness of a classification problem since it ignores data labels which are essential to any classification task. Building on a novel definition of label uncertainty, we empirically demonstrate that error regions induced by state-of-the-art models tend to have much higher label uncertainty than randomly-selected subsets. This observation motivates us to adapt a concentration estimation algorithm to account for label uncertainty, resulting in more accurate intrinsic robustness measures for benchmark image classification problems.

Combining several (sample approximations of) distributions, which we term sub-posteriors, into a single distribution proportional to their product, is a common challenge. Occurring, for instance, in distributed 'big data' problems, or when working under multi-party privacy constraints. Many existing approaches resort to approximating the individual sub-posteriors for practical necessity, then find either an analytical approximation or sample approximation of the resulting (product-pooled) posterior. The quality of the posterior approximation for these approaches is poor when the sub-posteriors fall out-with a narrow range of distributional form, such as being approximately Gaussian. Recently, a Fusion approach has been proposed which finds an exact Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior, circumventing the drawbacks of approximate approaches. Unfortunately, existing Fusion approaches have a number of computational limitations, particularly when unifying a large number of sub-posteriors. In this paper, we generalise the theory underpinning existing Fusion approaches, and embed the resulting methodology within a recursive divide-and-conquer sequential Monte Carlo paradigm. This ultimately leads to a competitive Fusion approach, which is robust to increasing numbers of sub-posteriors.

This work considers the category distribution heterogeneity in federated learning. This issue is due to biased labeling preferences at multiple clients and is a typical setting of data heterogeneity. To alleviate this issue, most previous works consider either regularizing local models or fine-tuning the global model, while they ignore the adjustment of aggregation weights and simply assign weights based on the dataset size. However, based on our empirical observations and theoretical analysis, we find that the dataset size is not optimal and the discrepancy between local and global category distributions could be a beneficial and complementary indicator for determining aggregation weights. We thus propose a novel aggregation method, Federated Learning with Discrepancy-aware Collaboration (FedDisco), whose aggregation weights not only involve both the dataset size and the discrepancy value, but also contribute to a tighter theoretical upper bound of the optimization error. FedDisco also promotes privacy-preservation, communication and computation efficiency, as well as modularity. Extensive experiments show that our FedDisco outperforms several state-of-the-art methods and can be easily incorporated with many existing methods to further enhance the performance. Our code will be available at https://github.com/MediaBrain-SJTU/FedDisco.

We study convergence lower bounds of without-replacement stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for solving smooth (strongly-)convex finite-sum minimization problems. Unlike most existing results focusing on final iterate lower bounds in terms of the number of components n and the number of epochs K, we seek bounds for arbitrary weighted average iterates that are tight in all factors including the condition number kappa. For SGD with Random Reshuffling, we present lower bounds that have tighter kappa dependencies than existing bounds. Our results are the first to perfectly close the gap between lower and upper bounds for weighted average iterates in both strongly-convex and convex cases. We also prove weighted average iterate lower bounds for arbitrary permutation-based SGD, which apply to all variants that carefully choose the best permutation. Our bounds improve the existing bounds in factors of n and kappa and thereby match the upper bounds shown for a recently proposed algorithm called GraB.

We study the non-stationary dueling bandits problem with K arms, where the time horizon T consists of M stationary segments, each of which is associated with its own preference matrix. The learner repeatedly selects a pair of arms and observes a binary preference between them as feedback. To minimize the accumulated regret, the learner needs to pick the Condorcet winner of each stationary segment as often as possible, despite preference matrices and segment lengths being unknown. We propose the Beat, the, Winner, Reset algorithm and prove a bound on its expected binary weak regret in the stationary case, which tightens the bound of current state-of-art algorithms. We also show a regret bound for the non-stationary case, without requiring knowledge of M or T. We further propose and analyze two meta-algorithms, DETECT for weak regret and Monitored, Dueling, Bandits for strong regret, both based on a detection-window approach that can incorporate any dueling bandit algorithm as a black-box algorithm. Finally, we prove a worst-case lower bound for expected weak regret in the non-stationary case.

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty is commonly measured by the entropy of the Bayesian model average (BMA) predictive distribution. Yet, the properness of this current measure of predictive uncertainty was recently questioned. We provide new insights regarding those limitations. Our analyses show that the current measure erroneously assumes that the BMA predictive distribution is equivalent to the predictive distribution of the true model that generated the dataset. Consequently, we introduce a theoretically grounded measure to overcome these limitations. We experimentally verify the benefits of our introduced measure of predictive uncertainty. We find that our introduced measure behaves more reasonably in controlled synthetic tasks. Moreover, our evaluations on ImageNet demonstrate that our introduced measure is advantageous in real-world applications utilizing predictive uncertainty.

In the context of personalized federated learning (FL), the critical challenge is to balance local model improvement and global model tuning when the personal and global objectives may not be exactly aligned. Inspired by Bayesian hierarchical models, we develop a self-aware personalized FL method where each client can automatically balance the training of its local personal model and the global model that implicitly contributes to other clients' training. Such a balance is derived from the inter-client and intra-client uncertainty quantification. A larger inter-client variation implies more personalization is needed. Correspondingly, our method uses uncertainty-driven local training steps and aggregation rule instead of conventional local fine-tuning and sample size-based aggregation. With experimental studies on synthetic data, Amazon Alexa audio data, and public datasets such as MNIST, FEMNIST, CIFAR10, and Sent140, we show that our proposed method can achieve significantly improved personalization performance compared with the existing counterparts.

We study variance-dependent regret bounds for Markov decision processes (MDPs). Algorithms with variance-dependent regret guarantees can automatically exploit environments with low variance (e.g., enjoying constant regret on deterministic MDPs). The existing algorithms are either variance-independent or suboptimal. We first propose two new environment norms to characterize the fine-grained variance properties of the environment. For model-based methods, we design a variant of the MVP algorithm (Zhang et al., 2021a). We apply new analysis techniques to demonstrate that this algorithm enjoys variance-dependent bounds with respect to the norms we propose. In particular, this bound is simultaneously minimax optimal for both stochastic and deterministic MDPs, the first result of its kind. We further initiate the study on model-free algorithms with variance-dependent regret bounds by designing a reference-function-based algorithm with a novel capped-doubling reference update schedule. Lastly, we also provide lower bounds to complement our upper bounds.

When applying differential privacy to sensitive data, we can often improve performance using external information such as other sensitive data, public data, or human priors. We propose to use the learning-augmented algorithms (or algorithms with predictions) framework -- previously applied largely to improve time complexity or competitive ratios -- as a powerful way of designing and analyzing privacy-preserving methods that can take advantage of such external information to improve utility. This idea is instantiated on the important task of multiple quantile release, for which we derive error guarantees that scale with a natural measure of prediction quality while (almost) recovering state-of-the-art prediction-independent guarantees. Our analysis enjoys several advantages, including minimal assumptions about the data, a natural way of adding robustness, and the provision of useful surrogate losses for two novel ``meta" algorithms that learn predictions from other (potentially sensitive) data. We conclude with experiments on challenging tasks demonstrating that learning predictions across one or more instances can lead to large error reductions while preserving privacy.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

We present new algorithms for optimizing non-smooth, non-convex stochastic objectives based on a novel analysis technique. This improves the current best-known complexity for finding a (delta,epsilon)-stationary point from O(epsilon^{-4}delta^{-1}) stochastic gradient queries to O(epsilon^{-3}delta^{-1}), which we also show to be optimal. Our primary technique is a reduction from non-smooth non-convex optimization to online learning, after which our results follow from standard regret bounds in online learning. For deterministic and second-order smooth objectives, applying more advanced optimistic online learning techniques enables a new complexity of O(epsilon^{-1.5}delta^{-0.5}). Our techniques also recover all optimal or best-known results for finding epsilon stationary points of smooth or second-order smooth objectives in both stochastic and deterministic settings.

When using large language models (LLMs) in high-stakes applications, we need to know when we can trust their predictions. Some works argue that prompting high-performance LLMs is sufficient to produce calibrated uncertainties, while others introduce sampling methods that can be prohibitively expensive. In this work, we first argue that prompting on its own is insufficient to achieve good calibration and then show that fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers can create an uncertainty estimate with good generalization and small computational overhead. We show that a thousand graded examples are sufficient to outperform baseline methods and that training through the features of a model is necessary for good performance and tractable for large open-source models when using LoRA. We also investigate the mechanisms that enable reliable LLM uncertainty estimation, finding that many models can be used as general-purpose uncertainty estimators, applicable not just to their own uncertainties but also the uncertainty of other models. Lastly, we show that uncertainty estimates inform human use of LLMs in human-AI collaborative settings through a user study.

Excellent tail performance is crucial for modern machine learning tasks, such as algorithmic fairness, class imbalance, and risk-sensitive decision making, as it ensures the effective handling of challenging samples within a dataset. Tail performance is also a vital determinant of success for personalized recommender systems to reduce the risk of losing users with low satisfaction. This study introduces a "safe" collaborative filtering method that prioritizes recommendation quality for less-satisfied users rather than focusing on the average performance. Our approach minimizes the conditional value at risk (CVaR), which represents the average risk over the tails of users' loss. To overcome computational challenges for web-scale recommender systems, we develop a robust yet practical algorithm that extends the most scalable method, implicit alternating least squares (iALS). Empirical evaluation on real-world datasets demonstrates the excellent tail performance of our approach while maintaining competitive computational efficiency.

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is typically used to optimize an unknown function f that is noisy and costly to evaluate, by exploiting an acquisition function that must be maximized at each optimization step. Even if provably asymptotically optimal BO algorithms are efficient at optimizing low-dimensional functions, scaling them to high-dimensional spaces remains an open problem, often tackled by assuming an additive structure for f. By doing so, BO algorithms typically introduce additional restrictive assumptions on the additive structure that reduce their applicability domain. This paper contains two main contributions: (i) we relax the restrictive assumptions on the additive structure of f without weakening the maximization guarantees of the acquisition function, and (ii) we address the over-exploration problem for decentralized BO algorithms. To these ends, we propose DuMBO, an asymptotically optimal decentralized BO algorithm that achieves very competitive performance against state-of-the-art BO algorithms, especially when the additive structure of f comprises high-dimensional factors.

The online knapsack problem is a classic problem in the field of online algorithms. Its canonical version asks how to pack items of different values and weights arriving online into a capacity-limited knapsack so as to maximize the total value of the admitted items. Although optimal competitive algorithms are known for this problem, they may be fundamentally unfair, i.e., individual items may be treated inequitably in different ways. Inspired by recent attention to fairness in online settings, we develop a natural and practically-relevant notion of time fairness for the online knapsack problem, and show that the existing optimal algorithms perform poorly under this metric. We propose a parameterized deterministic algorithm where the parameter precisely captures the Pareto-optimal trade-off between fairness and competitiveness. We show that randomization is theoretically powerful enough to be simultaneously competitive and fair; however, it does not work well in practice, using trace-driven experiments. To further improve the trade-off between fairness and competitiveness, we develop a fair, robust (competitive), and consistent learning-augmented algorithm with substantial performance improvement in trace-driven experiments.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

In this paper, by introducing Generalized Bernstein condition, we propose the first Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big) high probability excess population risk bound for differentially private algorithms under the assumptions G-Lipschitz, L-smooth, and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition, based on gradient perturbation method. If we replace the properties G-Lipschitz and L-smooth by alpha-H{\"o}lder smoothness (which can be used in non-smooth setting), the high probability bound comes to Obig(n^{-alpha{1+2alpha}}big) w.r.t n, which cannot achieve Oleft(1/nright) when alphain(0,1]. To solve this problem, we propose a variant of gradient perturbation method, max{1,g-Normalized Gradient Perturbation} (m-NGP). We further show that by normalization, the high probability excess population risk bound under assumptions alpha-H{\"o}lder smooth and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition can achieve Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big), which is the first Oleft(1/nright) high probability excess population risk bound w.r.t n for differentially private algorithms under non-smooth conditions. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of the new proposed algorithm m-NGP, the experimental results show that m-NGP improves the performance of the differentially private model over real datasets. It demonstrates that m-NGP improves the utility bound and the accuracy of the DP model on real datasets simultaneously.

We study the algorithm configuration (AC) problem, in which one seeks to find an optimal parameter configuration of a given target algorithm in an automated way. Recently, there has been significant progress in designing AC approaches that satisfy strong theoretical guarantees. However, a significant gap still remains between the practical performance of these approaches and state-of-the-art heuristic methods. To this end, we introduce AC-Band, a general approach for the AC problem based on multi-armed bandits that provides theoretical guarantees while exhibiting strong practical performance. We show that AC-Band requires significantly less computation time than other AC approaches providing theoretical guarantees while still yielding high-quality configurations.

We study the problem of online generalized linear regression in the stochastic setting, where the label is generated from a generalized linear model with possibly unbounded additive noise. We provide a sharp analysis of the classical follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) algorithm to cope with the label noise. More specifically, for sigma-sub-Gaussian label noise, our analysis provides a regret upper bound of O(sigma^2 d log T) + o(log T), where d is the dimension of the input vector, T is the total number of rounds. We also prove a Omega(sigma^2dlog(T/d)) lower bound for stochastic online linear regression, which indicates that our upper bound is nearly optimal. In addition, we extend our analysis to a more refined Bernstein noise condition. As an application, we study generalized linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise and propose an algorithm based on FTRL to achieve the first variance-aware regret bound.

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

Stochastically Extended Adversarial (SEA) model is introduced by Sachs et al. [2022] as an interpolation between stochastic and adversarial online convex optimization. Under the smoothness condition, they demonstrate that the expected regret of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (FTRL) depends on the cumulative stochastic variance sigma_{1:T}^2 and the cumulative adversarial variation Sigma_{1:T}^2 for convex functions. They also provide a slightly weaker bound based on the maximal stochastic variance sigma_{max}^2 and the maximal adversarial variation Sigma_{max}^2 for strongly convex functions. Inspired by their work, we investigate the theoretical guarantees of optimistic online mirror descent (OMD) for the SEA model. For convex and smooth functions, we obtain the same O(sigma_{1:T^2}+Sigma_{1:T^2}) regret bound, without the convexity requirement of individual functions. For strongly convex and smooth functions, we establish an O(min{log (sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2), (sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T}) bound, better than their O((sigma_{max}^2 + Sigma_{max}^2) log T) bound. For exp-concave and smooth functions, we achieve a new O(dlog(sigma_{1:T}^2+Sigma_{1:T}^2)) bound. Owing to the OMD framework, we can further extend our result to obtain dynamic regret guarantees, which are more favorable in non-stationary online scenarios. The attained results allow us to recover excess risk bounds of the stochastic setting and regret bounds of the adversarial setting, and derive new guarantees for many intermediate scenarios.

High-quality arguments are an essential part of decision-making. Automatically predicting the quality of an argument is a complex task that recently got much attention in argument mining. However, the annotation effort for this task is exceptionally high. Therefore, we test uncertainty-based active learning (AL) methods on two popular argument-strength data sets to estimate whether sample-efficient learning can be enabled. Our extensive empirical evaluation shows that uncertainty-based acquisition functions can not surpass the accuracy reached with the random acquisition on these data sets.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have shown promise in applications like view synthesis and depth estimation, but learning from multiview images faces inherent uncertainties. Current methods to quantify them are either heuristic or computationally demanding. We introduce BayesRays, a post-hoc framework to evaluate uncertainty in any pre-trained NeRF without modifying the training process. Our method establishes a volumetric uncertainty field using spatial perturbations and a Bayesian Laplace approximation. We derive our algorithm statistically and show its superior performance in key metrics and applications. Additional results available at: https://bayesrays.github.io.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties -- or, more accurately, its generalization properties -- with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

We propose a class of greedy algorithms for weighted sparse recovery by considering new loss function-based generalizations of Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OMP). Given a (regularized) loss function, the proposed algorithms alternate the iterative construction of the signal support via greedy index selection and a signal update based on solving a local data-fitting problem restricted to the current support. We show that greedy selection rules associated with popular weighted sparsity-promoting loss functions admit explicitly computable and simple formulas. Specifically, we consider ell^0 - and ell^1 -based versions of the weighted LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator), the Square-Root LASSO (SR-LASSO) and the Least Absolute Deviations LASSO (LAD-LASSO). Through numerical experiments on Gaussian compressive sensing and high-dimensional function approximation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms and empirically show that they inherit desirable characteristics from the corresponding loss functions, such as SR-LASSO's noise-blind optimal parameter tuning and LAD-LASSO's fault tolerance. In doing so, our study sheds new light on the connection between greedy sparse recovery and convex relaxation.

It has recently been conjectured that neural network solution sets reachable via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) are convex, considering permutation invariances (Entezari et al., 2022). This means that a linear path can connect two independent solutions with low loss, given the weights of one of the models are appropriately permuted. However, current methods to test this theory often require very wide networks to succeed. In this work, we conjecture that more generally, the SGD solution set is a "star domain" that contains a "star model" that is linearly connected to all the other solutions via paths with low loss values, modulo permutations. We propose the Starlight algorithm that finds a star model of a given learning task. We validate our claim by showing that this star model is linearly connected with other independently found solutions. As an additional benefit of our study, we demonstrate better uncertainty estimates on the Bayesian Model Averaging over the obtained star domain. Further, we demonstrate star models as potential substitutes for model ensembles. Our code is available at https://github.com/aktsonthalia/starlight.

Dataset bias is one of the prevailing causes of unfairness in machine learning. Addressing fairness at the data collection and dataset preparation stages therefore becomes an essential part of training fairer algorithms. In particular, active learning (AL) algorithms show promise for the task by drawing importance to the most informative training samples. However, the effect and interaction between existing AL algorithms and algorithmic fairness remain under-explored. In this paper, we study whether models trained with uncertainty-based AL heuristics such as BALD are fairer in their decisions with respect to a protected class than those trained with identically independently distributed (i.i.d.) sampling. We found a significant improvement on predictive parity when using BALD, while also improving accuracy compared to i.i.d. sampling. We also explore the interaction of algorithmic fairness methods such as gradient reversal (GRAD) and BALD. We found that, while addressing different fairness issues, their interaction further improves the results on most benchmarks and metrics we explored.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

We consider the task of identifying the Copeland winner(s) in a dueling bandits problem with ternary feedback. This is an underexplored but practically relevant variant of the conventional dueling bandits problem, in which, in addition to strict preference between two arms, one may observe feedback in the form of an indifference. We provide a lower bound on the sample complexity for any learning algorithm finding the Copeland winner(s) with a fixed error probability. Moreover, we propose POCOWISTA, an algorithm with a sample complexity that almost matches this lower bound, and which shows excellent empirical performance, even for the conventional dueling bandits problem. For the case where the preference probabilities satisfy a specific type of stochastic transitivity, we provide a refined version with an improved worst case sample complexity.

The optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) is a family of risk measures that cover important examples such as entropic risk, conditional value-at-risk and mean-variance models. In this paper, we propose a new episodic risk-sensitive reinforcement learning formulation based on tabular Markov decision processes with recursive OCEs. We design an efficient learning algorithm for this problem based on value iteration and upper confidence bound. We derive an upper bound on the regret of the proposed algorithm, and also establish a minimax lower bound. Our bounds show that the regret rate achieved by our proposed algorithm has optimal dependence on the number of episodes and the number of actions.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

In this paper, we present improved learning-augmented algorithms for the multi-option ski rental problem. Learning-augmented algorithms take ML predictions as an added part of the input and incorporates these predictions in solving the given problem. Due to their unique strength that combines the power of ML predictions with rigorous performance guarantees, they have been extensively studied in the context of online optimization problems. Even though ski rental problems are one of the canonical problems in the field of online optimization, only deterministic algorithms were previously known for multi-option ski rental, with or without learning augmentation. We present the first randomized learning-augmented algorithm for this problem, surpassing previous performance guarantees given by deterministic algorithms. Our learning-augmented algorithm is based on a new, provably best-possible randomized competitive algorithm for the problem. Our results are further complemented by lower bounds for deterministic and randomized algorithms, and computational experiments evaluating our algorithms' performance improvements.

The optimal transport problem for measures supported on non-Euclidean spaces has recently gained ample interest in diverse applications involving representation learning. In this paper, we focus on circular probability measures, i.e., probability measures supported on the unit circle, and introduce a new computationally efficient metric for these measures, denoted as Linear Circular Optimal Transport (LCOT). The proposed metric comes with an explicit linear embedding that allows one to apply Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to the embedded measures and seamlessly modify the underlying metric for the ML algorithm to LCOT. We show that the proposed metric is rooted in the Circular Optimal Transport (COT) and can be considered the linearization of the COT metric with respect to a fixed reference measure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed metric and derive the computational complexities for pairwise comparison of circular probability measures. Lastly, through a set of numerical experiments, we demonstrate the benefits of LCOT in learning representations of circular measures.

In large scale machine learning, random sampling is a popular way to approximate datasets by a small representative subset of examples. In particular, sensitivity sampling is an intensely studied technique which provides provable guarantees on the quality of approximation, while reducing the number of examples to the product of the VC dimension d and the total sensitivity mathfrak S in remarkably general settings. However, guarantees going beyond this general bound of mathfrak S d are known in perhaps only one setting, for ell_2 subspace embeddings, despite intense study of sensitivity sampling in prior work. In this work, we show the first bounds for sensitivity sampling for ell_p subspace embeddings for pneq 2 that improve over the general mathfrak S d bound, achieving a bound of roughly mathfrak S^{2/p} for 1leq p<2 and mathfrak S^{2-2/p} for 2<p<infty. For 1leq p<2, we show that this bound is tight, in the sense that there exist matrices for which mathfrak S^{2/p} samples is necessary. Furthermore, our techniques yield further new results in the study of sampling algorithms, showing that the root leverage score sampling algorithm achieves a bound of roughly d for 1leq p<2, and that a combination of leverage score and sensitivity sampling achieves an improved bound of roughly d^{2/p}mathfrak S^{2-4/p} for 2<p<infty. Our sensitivity sampling results yield the best known sample complexity for a wide class of structured matrices that have small ell_p sensitivity.

We study a family of loss functions named label-distributionally robust (LDR) losses for multi-class classification that are formulated from distributionally robust optimization (DRO) perspective, where the uncertainty in the given label information are modeled and captured by taking the worse case of distributional weights. The benefits of this perspective are several fold: (i) it provides a unified framework to explain the classical cross-entropy (CE) loss and SVM loss and their variants, (ii) it includes a special family corresponding to the temperature-scaled CE loss, which is widely adopted but poorly understood; (iii) it allows us to achieve adaptivity to the uncertainty degree of label information at an instance level. Our contributions include: (1) we study both consistency and robustness by establishing top-k (forall kgeq 1) consistency of LDR losses for multi-class classification, and a negative result that a top-1 consistent and symmetric robust loss cannot achieve top-k consistency simultaneously for all kgeq 2; (2) we propose a new adaptive LDR loss that automatically adapts the individualized temperature parameter to the noise degree of class label of each instance; (3) we demonstrate stable and competitive performance for the proposed adaptive LDR loss on 7 benchmark datasets under 6 noisy label and 1 clean settings against 13 loss functions, and on one real-world noisy dataset. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/Optimization-AI/ICML2023_LDR.

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should influence beliefs of rational receivers who take decisions through Bayesian updating of a common prior. We focus on the online Bayesian persuasion framework, in which the sender repeatedly faces one or more receivers with unknown and adversarially selected types. First, we show how to obtain a tight tilde O(T^{1/2}) regret bound in the case in which the sender faces a single receiver and has partial feedback, improving over the best previously known bound of tilde O(T^{4/5}). Then, we provide the first no-regret guarantees for the multi-receiver setting under partial feedback. Finally, we show how to design no-regret algorithms with polynomial per-iteration running time by exploiting type reporting, thereby circumventing known intractability results on online Bayesian persuasion. We provide efficient algorithms guaranteeing a O(T^{1/2}) regret upper bound both in the single- and multi-receiver scenario when type reporting is allowed.

Semi-supervised learning relaxes the need of large pixel-wise labeled datasets for image segmentation by leveraging unlabeled data. A prominent way to exploit unlabeled data is to regularize model predictions. Since the predictions of unlabeled data can be unreliable, uncertainty-aware schemes are typically employed to gradually learn from meaningful and reliable predictions. Uncertainty estimation methods, however, rely on multiple inferences from the model predictions that must be computed for each training step, which is computationally expensive. Moreover, these uncertainty maps capture pixel-wise disparities and do not consider global information. This work proposes a novel method to estimate segmentation uncertainty by leveraging global information from the segmentation masks. More precisely, an anatomically-aware representation is first learnt to model the available segmentation masks. The learnt representation thereupon maps the prediction of a new segmentation into an anatomically-plausible segmentation. The deviation from the plausible segmentation aids in estimating the underlying pixel-level uncertainty in order to further guide the segmentation network. The proposed method consequently estimates the uncertainty using a single inference from our representation, thereby reducing the total computation. We evaluate our method on two publicly available segmentation datasets of left atria in cardiac MRIs and of multiple organs in abdominal CTs. Our anatomically-aware method improves the segmentation accuracy over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised methods in terms of two commonly used evaluation metrics.

In federated learning, participating clients typically possess non-i.i.d. data, posing a significant challenge to generalization to unseen distributions. To address this, we propose a Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization scheme called WAFL. Leveraging its duality, we frame WAFL as an empirical surrogate risk minimization problem, and solve it using a local SGD-based algorithm with convergence guarantees. We show that the robustness of WAFL is more general than related approaches, and the generalization bound is robust to all adversarial distributions inside the Wasserstein ball (ambiguity set). Since the center location and radius of the Wasserstein ball can be suitably modified, WAFL shows its applicability not only in robustness but also in domain adaptation. Through empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that WAFL generalizes better than the vanilla FedAvg in non-i.i.d. settings, and is more robust than other related methods in distribution shift settings. Further, using benchmark datasets we show that WAFL is capable of generalizing to unseen target domains.

Predicting simple function classes has been widely used as a testbed for developing theory and understanding of the trained Transformer's in-context learning (ICL) ability. In this paper, we revisit the training of Transformers on linear regression tasks, and different from all the existing literature, we consider a bi-objective prediction task of predicting both the conditional expectation E[Y|X] and the conditional variance Var(Y|X). This additional uncertainty quantification objective provides a handle to (i) better design out-of-distribution experiments to distinguish ICL from in-weight learning (IWL) and (ii) make a better separation between the algorithms with and without using the prior information of the training distribution. Theoretically, we show that the trained Transformer reaches near Bayes-optimum, suggesting the usage of the information of the training distribution. Our method can be extended to other cases. Specifically, with the Transformer's context window S, we prove a generalization bound of mathcal{O}(min{S, T/(n T)}) on n tasks with sequences of length T, providing sharper analysis compared to previous results of mathcal{O}(1/n). Empirically, we illustrate that while the trained Transformer behaves as the Bayes-optimal solution as a natural consequence of supervised training in distribution, it does not necessarily perform a Bayesian inference when facing task shifts, in contrast to the equivalence between these two proposed in many existing literature. We also demonstrate the trained Transformer's ICL ability over covariates shift and prompt-length shift and interpret them as a generalization over a meta distribution.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

The ubiquity of distributed machine learning (ML) in sensitive public domain applications calls for algorithms that protect data privacy, while being robust to faults and adversarial behaviors. Although privacy and robustness have been extensively studied independently in distributed ML, their synthesis remains poorly understood. We present the first tight analysis of the error incurred by any algorithm ensuring robustness against a fraction of adversarial machines, as well as differential privacy (DP) for honest machines' data against any other curious entity. Our analysis exhibits a fundamental trade-off between privacy, robustness, and utility. To prove our lower bound, we consider the case of mean estimation, subject to distributed DP and robustness constraints, and devise reductions to centralized estimation of one-way marginals. We prove our matching upper bound by presenting a new distributed ML algorithm using a high-dimensional robust aggregation rule. The latter amortizes the dependence on the dimension in the error (caused by adversarial workers and DP), while being agnostic to the statistical properties of the data.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

We consider a class of assortment optimization problems in an offline data-driven setting. A firm does not know the underlying customer choice model but has access to an offline dataset consisting of the historically offered assortment set, customer choice, and revenue. The objective is to use the offline dataset to find an optimal assortment. Due to the combinatorial nature of assortment optimization, the problem of insufficient data coverage is likely to occur in the offline dataset. Therefore, designing a provably efficient offline learning algorithm becomes a significant challenge. To this end, we propose an algorithm referred to as Pessimistic ASsortment opTimizAtion (PASTA for short) designed based on the principle of pessimism, that can correctly identify the optimal assortment by only requiring the offline data to cover the optimal assortment under general settings. In particular, we establish a regret bound for the offline assortment optimization problem under the celebrated multinomial logit model. We also propose an efficient computational procedure to solve our pessimistic assortment optimization problem. Numerical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method over the existing baseline method.

Traditional fixed test sets fall short in evaluating open-ended capabilities of foundation models. To address this, we propose ONEBench(OpeN-Ended Benchmarking), a new testing paradigm that consolidates individual evaluation datasets into a unified, ever-expanding sample pool. ONEBench allows users to generate custom, open-ended evaluation benchmarks from this pool, corresponding to specific capabilities of interest. By aggregating samples across test sets, ONEBench enables the assessment of diverse capabilities beyond those covered by the original test sets, while mitigating overfitting and dataset bias. Most importantly, it frames model evaluation as a collective process of selecting and aggregating sample-level tests. The shift from task-specific benchmarks to ONEBench introduces two challenges: (1)heterogeneity and (2)incompleteness. Heterogeneity refers to the aggregation over diverse metrics, while incompleteness describes comparing models evaluated on different data subsets. To address these challenges, we explore algorithms to aggregate sparse measurements into reliable model scores. Our aggregation algorithm ensures identifiability(asymptotically recovering ground-truth scores) and rapid convergence, enabling accurate model ranking with less data. On homogenous datasets, we show our aggregation algorithm provides rankings that highly correlate with those produced by average scores. We also demonstrate robustness to ~95% of measurements missing, reducing evaluation cost by up to 20x with little-to-no change in model rankings. We introduce ONEBench-LLM for language models and ONEBench-LMM for vision-language models, unifying evaluations across these domains. Overall, we present a technique for open-ended evaluation, which can aggregate over incomplete, heterogeneous sample-level measurements to continually grow a benchmark alongside the rapidly developing foundation models.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.

Deep Learning-based image super-resolution (SR) has been gaining traction with the aid of Generative Adversarial Networks. Models like SRGAN and ESRGAN are constantly ranked between the best image SR tools. However, they lack principled ways for estimating predictive uncertainty. In the present work, we enhance these models using Monte Carlo-Dropout and Deep Ensemble, allowing the computation of predictive uncertainty. When coupled with a prediction, uncertainty estimates can provide more information to the model users, highlighting pixels where the SR output might be uncertain, hence potentially inaccurate, if these estimates were to be reliable. Our findings suggest that these uncertainty estimates are decently calibrated and can hence fulfill this goal, while providing no performance drop with respect to the corresponding models without uncertainty estimation.

This paper presents a groundbreaking self-improving interference management framework tailored for wireless communications, integrating deep learning with uncertainty quantification to enhance overall system performance. Our approach addresses the computational challenges inherent in traditional optimization-based algorithms by harnessing deep learning models to predict optimal interference management solutions. A significant breakthrough of our framework is its acknowledgment of the limitations inherent in data-driven models, particularly in scenarios not adequately represented by the training dataset. To overcome these challenges, we propose a method for uncertainty quantification, accompanied by a qualifying criterion, to assess the trustworthiness of model predictions. This framework strategically alternates between model-generated solutions and traditional algorithms, guided by a criterion that assesses the prediction credibility based on quantified uncertainties. Experimental results validate the framework's efficacy, demonstrating its superiority over traditional deep learning models, notably in scenarios underrepresented in the training dataset. This work marks a pioneering endeavor in harnessing self-improving deep learning for interference management, through the lens of uncertainty quantification.

A crucial requirement for reliable deployment of deep learning models for safety-critical applications is the ability to identify out-of-distribution (OOD) data points, samples which differ from the training data and on which a model might underperform. Previous work has attempted to tackle this problem using uncertainty estimation techniques. However, there is empirical evidence that a large family of these techniques do not detect OOD reliably in classification tasks. This paper gives a theoretical explanation for said experimental findings and illustrates it on synthetic data. We prove that such techniques are not able to reliably identify OOD samples in a classification setting, since their level of confidence is generalized to unseen areas of the feature space. This result stems from the interplay between the representation of ReLU networks as piece-wise affine transformations, the saturating nature of activation functions like softmax, and the most widely-used uncertainty metrics.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and risk-sensitive MDPs are both powerful tools for making decisions in the presence of uncertainties. Previous efforts have aimed to establish their connections, revealing equivalences in specific formulations. This paper introduces a new formulation for risk-sensitive MDPs, which assesses risk in a slightly different manner compared to the classical Markov risk measure (Ruszczy\'nski 2010), and establishes its equivalence with a class of regularized robust MDP (RMDP) problems, including the standard RMDP as a special case. Leveraging this equivalence, we further derive the policy gradient theorem for both problems, proving gradient domination and global convergence of the exact policy gradient method under the tabular setting with direct parameterization. This forms a sharp contrast to the Markov risk measure, known to be potentially non-gradient-dominant (Huang et al. 2021). We also propose a sample-based offline learning algorithm, namely the robust fitted-Z iteration (RFZI), for a specific regularized RMDP problem with a KL-divergence regularization term (or equivalently the risk-sensitive MDP with an entropy risk measure). We showcase its streamlined design and less stringent assumptions due to the equivalence and analyze its sample complexity.

We consider a contextual combinatorial bandit problem where in each round a learning agent selects a subset of arms and receives feedback on the selected arms according to their scores. The score of an arm is an unknown function of the arm's feature. Approximating this unknown score function with deep neural networks, we propose algorithms: Combinatorial Neural UCB (CN-UCB) and Combinatorial Neural Thompson Sampling (CN-TS). We prove that CN-UCB achieves mathcal{O}(d T) or mathcal{O}(tilde{d T K}) regret, where d is the effective dimension of a neural tangent kernel matrix, K is the size of a subset of arms, and T is the time horizon. For CN-TS, we adapt an optimistic sampling technique to ensure the optimism of the sampled combinatorial action, achieving a worst-case (frequentist) regret of mathcal{O}(d TK). To the best of our knowledge, these are the first combinatorial neural bandit algorithms with regret performance guarantees. In particular, CN-TS is the first Thompson sampling algorithm with the worst-case regret guarantees for the general contextual combinatorial bandit problem. The numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performances of our proposed algorithms.

Accurate uncertainty estimates are essential for deploying deep object detectors in safety-critical systems. The development and evaluation of probabilistic object detectors have been hindered by shortcomings in existing performance measures, which tend to involve arbitrary thresholds or limit the detector's choice of distributions. In this work, we propose to view object detection as a set prediction task where detectors predict the distribution over the set of objects. Using the negative log-likelihood for random finite sets, we present a proper scoring rule for evaluating and training probabilistic object detectors. The proposed method can be applied to existing probabilistic detectors, is free from thresholds, and enables fair comparison between architectures. Three different types of detectors are evaluated on the COCO dataset. Our results indicate that the training of existing detectors is optimized toward non-probabilistic metrics. We hope to encourage the development of new object detectors that can accurately estimate their own uncertainty. Code available at https://github.com/georghess/pmb-nll.

In practical scenarios, time series forecasting necessitates not only accuracy but also efficiency. Consequently, the exploration of model architectures remains a perennially trending topic in research. To address these challenges, we propose a novel backbone architecture named Time Evidence Fusion Network (TEFN) from the perspective of information fusion. Specifically, we introduce the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) Module based on evidence theory to capture the uncertainty of multivariate time series data from both channel and time dimensions. Additionally, we develop a novel multi-source information fusion method to effectively integrate the two distinct dimensions from BPA output, leading to improved forecasting accuracy. Lastly, we conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate that TEFN achieves performance comparable to state-of-the-art methods while maintaining significantly lower complexity and reduced training time. Also, our experiments show that TEFN exhibits high robustness, with minimal error fluctuations during hyperparameter selection. Furthermore, due to the fact that BPA is derived from fuzzy theory, TEFN offers a high degree of interpretability. Therefore, the proposed TEFN balances accuracy, efficiency, stability, and interpretability, making it a desirable solution for time series forecasting.

A major technique in learning-augmented online algorithms is combining multiple algorithms or predictors. Since the performance of each predictor may vary over time, it is desirable to use not the single best predictor as a benchmark, but rather a dynamic combination which follows different predictors at different times. We design algorithms that combine predictions and are competitive against such dynamic combinations for a wide class of online problems, namely, metrical task systems. Against the best (in hindsight) unconstrained combination of ell predictors, we obtain a competitive ratio of O(ell^2), and show that this is best possible. However, for a benchmark with slightly constrained number of switches between different predictors, we can get a (1+epsilon)-competitive algorithm. Moreover, our algorithms can be adapted to access predictors in a bandit-like fashion, querying only one predictor at a time. An unexpected implication of one of our lower bounds is a new structural insight about covering formulations for the k-server problem.

Clustering is a fundamental building block of modern statistical analysis pipelines. Fair clustering has seen much attention from the machine learning community in recent years. We are some of the first to study fairness in the context of hierarchical clustering, after the results of Ahmadian et al. from NeurIPS in 2020. We evaluate our results using Dasgupta's cost function, perhaps one of the most prevalent theoretical metrics for hierarchical clustering evaluation. Our work vastly improves the previous O(n^{5/6}polylog(n)) fair approximation for cost to a near polylogarithmic O(n^delta polylog(n)) fair approximation for any constant deltain(0,1). This result establishes a cost-fairness tradeoff and extends to broader fairness constraints than the previous work. We also show how to alter existing hierarchical clusterings to guarantee fairness and cluster balance across any level in the hierarchy.

Distributed optimization problems usually face inexact communication issues induced by communication quantization, differential privacy protection, or channels noise. Most existing algorithms need two-timescale setting of the stepsize of gradient descent and the parameter of noise suppression to ensure the convergence to the optimal solution. In this paper, we propose two single-timescale algorithms, VRA-DGT and VRA--DSGT, for distributed deterministic and stochastic optimization problems with inexact communication respectively. VRA-DGT integrates the Variance-Reduced Aggregation (VRA) mechanism with the distributed gradient tracking framework, which achieves a convergence rate of Oleft(k^{-1}right) in the mean-square sense when the objective function is strongly convex and smooth. For distributed stochastic optimization problem,VRA-DSGT, where a hybrid variance reduction technique has been introduced in VRA-DGT, VRA-DGT,, maintains the convergence rate of Oleft(k^{-1}right) for strongly convex and smooth objective function. Simulated experiments on logistic regression problem with real-world data verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this analysis, we then propose new end-to-end learning algorithms for training decision maps that output solutions of empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization problems, two dominant modeling paradigms in optimization under uncertainty. Numerical results for a synthetic newsvendor problem illustrate the key differences between alternative training schemes. We also investigate an economic dispatch problem based on real data to showcase the impact of the neural network architecture of the decision maps on their test performance.

In data poisoning attacks, an adversary tries to change a model's prediction by adding, modifying, or removing samples in the training data. Recently, ensemble-based approaches for obtaining provable defenses against data poisoning have been proposed where predictions are done by taking a majority vote across multiple base models. In this work, we show that merely considering the majority vote in ensemble defenses is wasteful as it does not effectively utilize available information in the logits layers of the base models. Instead, we propose Run-Off Election (ROE), a novel aggregation method based on a two-round election across the base models: In the first round, models vote for their preferred class and then a second, Run-Off election is held between the top two classes in the first round. Based on this approach, we propose DPA+ROE and FA+ROE defense methods based on Deep Partition Aggregation (DPA) and Finite Aggregation (FA) approaches from prior work. We evaluate our methods on MNIST, CIFAR-10, and GTSRB and obtain improvements in certified accuracy by up to 3%-4%. Also, by applying ROE on a boosted version of DPA, we gain improvements around 12%-27% comparing to the current state-of-the-art, establishing a new state-of-the-art in (pointwise) certified robustness against data poisoning. In many cases, our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, even when using 32 times less computational power.

The bandits with knapsack (BwK) framework models online decision-making problems in which an agent makes a sequence of decisions subject to resource consumption constraints. The traditional model assumes that each action consumes a non-negative amount of resources and the process ends when the initial budgets are fully depleted. We study a natural generalization of the BwK framework which allows non-monotonic resource utilization, i.e., resources can be replenished by a positive amount. We propose a best-of-both-worlds primal-dual template that can handle any online learning problem with replenishment for which a suitable primal regret minimizer exists. In particular, we provide the first positive results for the case of adversarial inputs by showing that our framework guarantees a constant competitive ratio alpha when B=Omega(T) or when the possible per-round replenishment is a positive constant. Moreover, under a stochastic input model, our algorithm yields an instance-independent O(T^{1/2}) regret bound which complements existing instance-dependent bounds for the same setting. Finally, we provide applications of our framework to some economic problems of practical relevance.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

A recourse action aims to explain a particular algorithmic decision by showing one specific way in which the instance could be modified to receive an alternate outcome. Existing recourse generation methods often assume that the machine learning model does not change over time. However, this assumption does not always hold in practice because of data distribution shifts, and in this case, the recourse action may become invalid. To redress this shortcoming, we propose the Distributionally Robust Recourse Action (DiRRAc) framework, which generates a recourse action that has a high probability of being valid under a mixture of model shifts. We formulate the robustified recourse setup as a min-max optimization problem, where the max problem is specified by Gelbrich distance over an ambiguity set around the distribution of model parameters. Then we suggest a projected gradient descent algorithm to find a robust recourse according to the min-max objective. We show that our DiRRAc framework can be extended to hedge against the misspecification of the mixture weights. Numerical experiments with both synthetic and three real-world datasets demonstrate the benefits of our proposed framework over state-of-the-art recourse methods.

Pairwise re-ranking models predict which of two documents is more relevant to a query and then aggregate a final ranking from such preferences. This is often more effective than pointwise re-ranking models that directly predict a relevance value for each document. However, the high inference overhead of pairwise models limits their practical application: usually, for a set of k documents to be re-ranked, preferences for all k^2-k comparison pairs excluding self-comparisons are aggregated. We investigate whether the efficiency of pairwise re-ranking can be improved by sampling from all pairs. In an exploratory study, we evaluate three sampling methods and five preference aggregation methods. The best combination allows for an order of magnitude fewer comparisons at an acceptable loss of retrieval effectiveness, while competitive effectiveness is already achieved with about one third of the comparisons.

In this paper, we find a sample complexity bound for learning a simplex from noisy samples. Assume a dataset of size n is given which includes i.i.d. samples drawn from a uniform distribution over an unknown simplex in R^K, where samples are assumed to be corrupted by a multi-variate additive Gaussian noise of an arbitrary magnitude. We prove the existence of an algorithm that with high probability outputs a simplex having a ell_2 distance of at most varepsilon from the true simplex (for any varepsilon>0). Also, we theoretically show that in order to achieve this bound, it is sufficient to have ngeleft(K^2/varepsilon^2right)e^{Omegaleft(K/SNR^2right)} samples, where SNR stands for the signal-to-noise ratio. This result solves an important open problem and shows as long as SNRgeOmegaleft(K^{1/2}right), the sample complexity of the noisy regime has the same order to that of the noiseless case. Our proofs are a combination of the so-called sample compression technique in ashtiani2018nearly, mathematical tools from high-dimensional geometry, and Fourier analysis. In particular, we have proposed a general Fourier-based technique for recovery of a more general class of distribution families from additive Gaussian noise, which can be further used in a variety of other related problems.

Counterfactual explanations are attracting significant attention due to the flourishing applications of machine learning models in consequential domains. A counterfactual plan consists of multiple possibilities to modify a given instance so that the model's prediction will be altered. As the predictive model can be updated subject to the future arrival of new data, a counterfactual plan may become ineffective or infeasible with respect to the future values of the model parameters. In this work, we study the counterfactual plans under model uncertainty, in which the distribution of the model parameters is partially prescribed using only the first- and second-moment information. First, we propose an uncertainty quantification tool to compute the lower and upper bounds of the probability of validity for any given counterfactual plan. We then provide corrective methods to adjust the counterfactual plan to improve the validity measure. The numerical experiments validate our bounds and demonstrate that our correction increases the robustness of the counterfactual plans in different real-world datasets.

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter beta is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying beta. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.

For infinite action contextual bandits, smoothed regret and reduction to regression results in state-of-the-art online performance with computational cost independent of the action set: unfortunately, the resulting data exhaust does not have well-defined importance-weights. This frustrates the execution of downstream data science processes such as offline model selection. In this paper we describe an online algorithm with an equivalent smoothed regret guarantee, but which generates well-defined importance weights: in exchange, the online computational cost increases, but only to order smoothness (i.e., still independent of the action set). This removes a key obstacle to adoption of smoothed regret in production scenarios.

Cross-entropy is a widely used loss function in applications. It coincides with the logistic loss applied to the outputs of a neural network, when the softmax is used. But, what guarantees can we rely on when using cross-entropy as a surrogate loss? We present a theoretical analysis of a broad family of loss functions, comp-sum losses, that includes cross-entropy (or logistic loss), generalized cross-entropy, the mean absolute error and other cross-entropy-like loss functions. We give the first H-consistency bounds for these loss functions. These are non-asymptotic guarantees that upper bound the zero-one loss estimation error in terms of the estimation error of a surrogate loss, for the specific hypothesis set H used. We further show that our bounds are tight. These bounds depend on quantities called minimizability gaps. To make them more explicit, we give a specific analysis of these gaps for comp-sum losses. We also introduce a new family of loss functions, smooth adversarial comp-sum losses, that are derived from their comp-sum counterparts by adding in a related smooth term. We show that these loss functions are beneficial in the adversarial setting by proving that they admit H-consistency bounds. This leads to new adversarial robustness algorithms that consist of minimizing a regularized smooth adversarial comp-sum loss. While our main purpose is a theoretical analysis, we also present an extensive empirical analysis comparing comp-sum losses. We further report the results of a series of experiments demonstrating that our adversarial robustness algorithms outperform the current state-of-the-art, while also achieving a superior non-adversarial accuracy.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.

We propose a new definition of instance optimality for differentially private estimation algorithms. Our definition requires an optimal algorithm to compete, simultaneously for every dataset D, with the best private benchmark algorithm that (a) knows D in advance and (b) is evaluated by its worst-case performance on large subsets of D. That is, the benchmark algorithm need not perform well when potentially extreme points are added to D; it only has to handle the removal of a small number of real data points that already exist. This makes our benchmark significantly stronger than those proposed in prior work. We nevertheless show, for real-valued datasets, how to construct private algorithms that achieve our notion of instance optimality when estimating a broad class of dataset properties, including means, quantiles, and ell_p-norm minimizers. For means in particular, we provide a detailed analysis and show that our algorithm simultaneously matches or exceeds the asymptotic performance of existing algorithms under a range of distributional assumptions.

Bagging is an important technique for stabilizing machine learning models. In this paper, we derive a finite-sample guarantee on the stability of bagging for any model. Our result places no assumptions on the distribution of the data, on the properties of the base algorithm, or on the dimensionality of the covariates. Our guarantee applies to many variants of bagging and is optimal up to a constant. Empirical results validate our findings, showing that bagging successfully stabilizes even highly unstable base algorithms.

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Motivated by concerns about making online decisions that incur undue amount of risk at each time step, in this paper, we formulate the probably anytime-safe stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits problem. In this problem, the agent is given the option to select a subset of size at most K from a set of L ground items. Each item is associated to a certain mean reward as well as a variance that represents its risk. To mitigate the risk that the agent incurs, we require that with probability at least 1-delta, over the entire horizon of time T, each of the choices that the agent makes should contain items whose sum of variances does not exceed a certain variance budget. We call this probably anytime-safe constraint. Under this constraint, we design and analyze an algorithm {\sc PASCombUCB} that minimizes the regret over the horizon of time T. By developing accompanying information-theoretic lower bounds, we show that under both the problem-dependent and problem-independent paradigms, {\sc PASCombUCB} is almost asymptotically optimal. Experiments are conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings. Our problem setup, the proposed {\sc PASCombUCB} algorithm, and novel analyses are applicable to domains such as recommendation systems and transportation in which an agent is allowed to choose multiple items at a single time step and wishes to control the risk over the whole time horizon.

Ensembling neural networks is an effective way to increase accuracy, and can often match the performance of individual larger models. This observation poses a natural question: given the choice between a deep ensemble and a single neural network with similar accuracy, is one preferable over the other? Recent work suggests that deep ensembles may offer distinct benefits beyond predictive power: namely, uncertainty quantification and robustness to dataset shift. In this work, we demonstrate limitations to these purported benefits, and show that a single (but larger) neural network can replicate these qualities. First, we show that ensemble diversity, by any metric, does not meaningfully contribute to an ensemble's uncertainty quantification on out-of-distribution (OOD) data, but is instead highly correlated with the relative improvement of a single larger model. Second, we show that the OOD performance afforded by ensembles is strongly determined by their in-distribution (InD) performance, and -- in this sense -- is not indicative of any "effective robustness". While deep ensembles are a practical way to achieve improvements to predictive power, uncertainty quantification, and robustness, our results show that these improvements can be replicated by a (larger) single model.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

In modern recommendation systems, the standard pipeline involves training machine learning models on historical data to predict user behaviors and improve recommendations continuously. However, these data training loops can introduce interference in A/B tests, where data generated by control and treatment algorithms, potentially with different distributions, are combined. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel approach called weighted training. This approach entails training a model to predict the probability of each data point appearing in either the treatment or control data and subsequently applying weighted losses during model training. We demonstrate that this approach achieves the least variance among all estimators without causing shifts in the training distributions. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the lower bias and variance of our approach compared to other methods.

We study the problem of learning mixtures of Gaussians with censored data. Statistical learning with censored data is a classical problem, with numerous practical applications, however, finite-sample guarantees for even simple latent variable models such as Gaussian mixtures are missing. Formally, we are given censored data from a mixture of univariate Gaussians $sum_{i=1}^k w_i N(mu_i,sigma^2), i.e. the sample is observed only if it lies inside a set S. The goal is to learn the weights w_i and the means \mu_i. We propose an algorithm that takes only 1{\varepsilon^{O(k)}} samples to estimate the weights w_i and the means \mu_i within \varepsilon$ error.

We consider online learning problems in the realizable setting, where there is a zero-loss solution, and propose new Differentially Private (DP) algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret bounds. For the problem of online prediction from experts, we design new algorithms that obtain near-optimal regret {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d} big) where d is the number of experts. This significantly improves over the best existing regret bounds for the DP non-realizable setting which are {O} big( varepsilon^{-1} minbig{d, T^{1/3}log dbig} big). We also develop an adaptive algorithm for the small-loss setting with regret O(L^starlog d + varepsilon^{-1} log^{1.5}{d}) where L^star is the total loss of the best expert. Additionally, we consider DP online convex optimization in the realizable setting and propose an algorithm with near-optimal regret O big(varepsilon^{-1} d^{1.5} big), as well as an algorithm for the smooth case with regret O big( varepsilon^{-2/3} (dT)^{1/3} big), both significantly improving over existing bounds in the non-realizable regime.

Federated Domain Adaptation (FDA) describes the federated learning (FL) setting where source clients and a server work collaboratively to improve the performance of a target client where limited data is available. The domain shift between the source and target domains, coupled with limited data of the target client, makes FDA a challenging problem, e.g., common techniques such as federated averaging and fine-tuning fail due to domain shift and data scarcity. To theoretically understand the problem, we introduce new metrics that characterize the FDA setting and a theoretical framework with novel theorems for analyzing the performance of server aggregation rules. Further, we propose a novel lightweight aggregation rule, Federated Gradient Projection (FedGP), which significantly improves the target performance with domain shift and data scarcity. Moreover, our theory suggests an auto-weighting scheme that finds the optimal combinations of the source and target gradients. This scheme improves both FedGP and a simpler heuristic aggregation rule. Extensive experiments verify the theoretical insights and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in practice.

Assigning importance weights to adversarial data has achieved great success in training adversarially robust networks under limited model capacity. However, existing instance-reweighted adversarial training (AT) methods heavily depend on heuristics and/or geometric interpretations to determine those importance weights, making these algorithms lack rigorous theoretical justification/guarantee. Moreover, recent research has shown that adversarial training suffers from a severe non-uniform robust performance across the training distribution, e.g., data points belonging to some classes can be much more vulnerable to adversarial attacks than others. To address both issues, in this paper, we propose a novel doubly-robust instance reweighted AT framework, which allows to obtain the importance weights via exploring distributionally robust optimization (DRO) techniques, and at the same time boosts the robustness on the most vulnerable examples. In particular, our importance weights are obtained by optimizing the KL-divergence regularized loss function, which allows us to devise new algorithms with a theoretical convergence guarantee. Experiments on standard classification datasets demonstrate that our proposed approach outperforms related state-of-the-art baseline methods in terms of average robust performance, and at the same time improves the robustness against attacks on the weakest data points. Codes will be available soon.

Learning neural subset selection tasks, such as compound selection in AI-aided drug discovery, have become increasingly pivotal across diverse applications. The existing methodologies in the field primarily concentrate on constructing models that capture the relationship between utility function values and subsets within their respective supersets. However, these approaches tend to overlook the valuable information contained within the superset when utilizing neural networks to model set functions. In this work, we address this oversight by adopting a probabilistic perspective. Our theoretical findings demonstrate that when the target value is conditioned on both the input set and subset, it is essential to incorporate an invariant sufficient statistic of the superset into the subset of interest for effective learning. This ensures that the output value remains invariant to permutations of the subset and its corresponding superset, enabling identification of the specific superset from which the subset originated. Motivated by these insights, we propose a simple yet effective information aggregation module designed to merge the representations of subsets and supersets from a permutation invariance perspective. Comprehensive empirical evaluations across diverse tasks and datasets validate the enhanced efficacy of our approach over conventional methods, underscoring the practicality and potency of our proposed strategies in real-world contexts.

Active learning (AL) aims to select the most useful data samples from an unlabeled data pool and annotate them to expand the labeled dataset under a limited budget. Especially, uncertainty-based methods choose the most uncertain samples, which are known to be effective in improving model performance. However, AL literature often overlooks training dynamics (TD), defined as the ever-changing model behavior during optimization via stochastic gradient descent, even though other areas of literature have empirically shown that TD provides important clues for measuring the sample uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a novel AL method, Training Dynamics for Active Learning (TiDAL), which leverages the TD to quantify uncertainties of unlabeled data. Since tracking the TD of all the large-scale unlabeled data is impractical, TiDAL utilizes an additional prediction module that learns the TD of labeled data. To further justify the design of TiDAL, we provide theoretical and empirical evidence to argue the usefulness of leveraging TD for AL. Experimental results show that our TiDAL achieves better or comparable performance on both balanced and imbalanced benchmark datasets compared to state-of-the-art AL methods, which estimate data uncertainty using only static information after model training.

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks while benefiting from better computational scalability. However, building ensembles of neural networks is a challenging task because, in addition to choosing the right neural architecture or hyperparameters for each member of the ensemble, there is an added cost of training each model. We propose AutoDEUQ, an automated approach for generating an ensemble of deep neural networks. Our approach leverages joint neural architecture and hyperparameter search to generate ensembles. We use the law of total variance to decompose the predictive variance of deep ensembles into aleatoric (data) and epistemic (model) uncertainties. We show that AutoDEUQ outperforms probabilistic backpropagation, Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, distribution-free ensembles, and hyper ensemble methods on a number of regression benchmarks.

The notion of omnipredictors (Gopalan, Kalai, Reingold, Sharan and Wieder ITCS 2021), suggested a new paradigm for loss minimization. Rather than learning a predictor based on a known loss function, omnipredictors can easily be post-processed to minimize any one of a rich family of loss functions compared with the loss of hypotheses in a class mathcal C. It has been shown that such omnipredictors exist and are implied (for all convex and Lipschitz loss functions) by the notion of multicalibration from the algorithmic fairness literature. In this paper, we introduce omnipredictors for constrained optimization and study their complexity and implications. The notion that we introduce allows the learner to be unaware of the loss function that will be later assigned as well as the constraints that will be later imposed, as long as the subpopulations that are used to define these constraints are known. We show how to obtain omnipredictors for constrained optimization problems, relying on appropriate variants of multicalibration. We also investigate the implications of this notion when the constraints used are so-called group fairness notions.

In machine learning, the notion of multi-armed bandits refers to a class of online learning problems, in which an agent is supposed to simultaneously explore and exploit a given set of choice alternatives in the course of a sequential decision process. In the standard setting, the agent learns from stochastic feedback in the form of real-valued rewards. In many applications, however, numerical reward signals are not readily available -- instead, only weaker information is provided, in particular relative preferences in the form of qualitative comparisons between pairs of alternatives. This observation has motivated the study of variants of the multi-armed bandit problem, in which more general representations are used both for the type of feedback to learn from and the target of prediction. The aim of this paper is to provide a survey of the state of the art in this field, referred to as preference-based multi-armed bandits or dueling bandits. To this end, we provide an overview of problems that have been considered in the literature as well as methods for tackling them. Our taxonomy is mainly based on the assumptions made by these methods about the data-generating process and, related to this, the properties of the preference-based feedback.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them. This scenario necessitates the use of composite class labels. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Hyper-Evidential Neural Network (HENN) that explicitly models predictive uncertainty due to composite class labels in training data in the context of the belief theory called Subjective Logic (SL). By placing a grouped Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural network as parameters of hyper-subjective opinions and learn the network that collects both single and composite evidence leading to these hyper-opinions by a deterministic DNN from data. We introduce a new uncertainty type called vagueness originally designed for hyper-opinions in SL to quantify composite classification uncertainty for DNNs. Our results demonstrate that HENN outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts based on four image datasets. The code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/Hugo101/HyperEvidentialNN.

We study Pareto optimality in multi-objective multi-armed bandit by providing a formulation of adversarial multi-objective multi-armed bandit and defining its Pareto regrets that can be applied to both stochastic and adversarial settings. The regrets do not rely on any scalarization functions and reflect Pareto optimality compared to scalarized regrets. We also present new algorithms assuming both with and without prior information of the multi-objective multi-armed bandit setting. The algorithms are shown optimal in adversarial settings and nearly optimal up to a logarithmic factor in stochastic settings simultaneously by our established upper bounds and lower bounds on Pareto regrets. Moreover, the lower bound analyses show that the new regrets are consistent with the existing Pareto regret for stochastic settings and extend an adversarial attack mechanism from bandit to the multi-objective one.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a standard approach for fine-tuning large language models to follow instructions. As part of this process, learned reward models are used to approximately model human preferences. However, as imperfect representations of the "true" reward, these learned reward models are susceptible to overoptimization. Gao et al. (2023) studied this phenomenon in a synthetic human feedback setup with a significantly larger "gold" reward model acting as the true reward (instead of humans) and showed that overoptimization remains a persistent problem regardless of the size of the proxy reward model and training data used. Using a similar setup, we conduct a systematic study to evaluate the efficacy of using ensemble-based conservative optimization objectives, specifically worst-case optimization (WCO) and uncertainty-weighted optimization (UWO), for mitigating reward model overoptimization when using two optimization methods: (a) best-of-n sampling (BoN) (b) proximal policy optimization (PPO). We additionally extend the setup of Gao et al. (2023) to include 25% label noise to better mirror real-world conditions. Both with and without label noise, we find that conservative optimization practically eliminates overoptimization and improves performance by up to 70% for BoN sampling. For PPO, ensemble-based conservative optimization always reduces overoptimization and outperforms single reward model optimization. Moreover, combining it with a small KL penalty successfully prevents overoptimization at no performance cost. Overall, our results demonstrate that ensemble-based conservative optimization can effectively counter overoptimization.

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

The trade-off between regret and computational cost is a fundamental problem for online kernel regression, and previous algorithms worked on the trade-off can not keep optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity. In this paper, we propose two new algorithms, AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD, which can keep nearly optimal regret bounds at a sublinear computational complexity, and give sufficient conditions under which our algorithms work. Both algorithms dynamically maintain a group of nearly orthogonal basis used to approximate the kernel mapping, and keep nearly optimal regret bounds by controlling the approximate error. The number of basis depends on the approximate error and the decay rate of eigenvalues of the kernel matrix. If the eigenvalues decay exponentially, then AOGD-ALD and NONS-ALD separately achieves a regret of O(L(f)) and O(d_{eff}(mu)T) at a computational complexity in O(ln^2{T}). If the eigenvalues decay polynomially with degree pgeq 1, then our algorithms keep the same regret bounds at a computational complexity in o(T) in the case of p>4 and pgeq 10, respectively. L(f) is the cumulative losses of f and d_{eff}(mu) is the effective dimension of the problem. The two regret bounds are nearly optimal and are not comparable.

Safe deployment of graph neural networks (GNNs) under distribution shift requires models to provide accurate confidence indicators (CI). However, while it is well-known in computer vision that CI quality diminishes under distribution shift, this behavior remains understudied for GNNs. Hence, we begin with a case study on CI calibration under controlled structural and feature distribution shifts and demonstrate that increased expressivity or model size do not always lead to improved CI performance. Consequently, we instead advocate for the use of epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to modulate CIs. To this end, we propose G-DeltaUQ, a new single model UQ method that extends the recently proposed stochastic centering framework to support structured data and partial stochasticity. Evaluated across covariate, concept, and graph size shifts, G-DeltaUQ not only outperforms several popular UQ methods in obtaining calibrated CIs, but also outperforms alternatives when CIs are used for generalization gap prediction or OOD detection. Overall, our work not only introduces a new, flexible GNN UQ method, but also provides novel insights into GNN CIs on safety-critical tasks.

Learning from label proportions (LLP) is a promising weakly supervised learning problem. In LLP, a set of instances (bag) has label proportions, but no instance-level labels are given. LLP aims to train an instance-level classifier by using the label proportions of the bag. In this paper, we propose a bag-level data augmentation method for LLP called MixBag, based on the key observation from our preliminary experiments; that the instance-level classification accuracy improves as the number of labeled bags increases even though the total number of instances is fixed. We also propose a confidence interval loss designed based on statistical theory to use the augmented bags effectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose bag-level data augmentation for LLP. The advantage of MixBag is that it can be applied to instance-level data augmentation techniques and any LLP method that uses the proportion loss. Experimental results demonstrate this advantage and the effectiveness of our method.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

The study of collaborative multi-agent bandits has attracted significant attention recently. In light of this, we initiate the study of a new collaborative setting, consisting of N agents such that each agent is learning one of M stochastic multi-armed bandits to minimize their group cumulative regret. We develop decentralized algorithms which facilitate collaboration between the agents under two scenarios. We characterize the performance of these algorithms by deriving the per agent cumulative regret and group regret upper bounds. We also prove lower bounds for the group regret in this setting, which demonstrates the near-optimal behavior of the proposed algorithms.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of aggregation function. While summing over a node's neighbours can approximate any permutation-invariant function over discrete inputs, Cohen-Karlik et al. [2020] proved there are set-aggregation problems for which summing cannot generalise to unbounded inputs, proposing recurrent neural networks regularised towards permutation-invariance as a more expressive aggregator. We show that these results carry over to the graph domain: GNNs equipped with recurrent aggregators are competitive with state-of-the-art permutation-invariant aggregators, on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world problems. However, despite the benefits of recurrent aggregators, their O(V) depth makes them both difficult to parallelise and harder to train on large graphs. Inspired by the observation that a well-behaved aggregator for a GNN is a commutative monoid over its latent space, we propose a framework for constructing learnable, commutative, associative binary operators. And with this, we construct an aggregator of O(log V) depth, yielding exponential improvements for both parallelism and dependency length while achieving performance competitive with recurrent aggregators. Based on our empirical observations, our proposed learnable commutative monoid (LCM) aggregator represents a favourable tradeoff between efficient and expressive aggregators.

ML-augmented algorithms utilize predictions to achieve performance beyond their worst-case bounds. Producing these predictions might be a costly operation -- this motivated Im et al. '22 to introduce the study of algorithms which use predictions parsimoniously. We design parsimonious algorithms for caching and MTS with action predictions, proposed by Antoniadis et al. '20, focusing on the parameters of consistency (performance with perfect predictions) and smoothness (dependence of their performance on the prediction error). Our algorithm for caching is 1-consistent, robust, and its smoothness deteriorates with the decreasing number of available predictions. We propose an algorithm for general MTS whose consistency and smoothness both scale linearly with the decreasing number of predictions. Without the restriction on the number of available predictions, both algorithms match the earlier guarantees achieved by Antoniadis et al. '20.

The Combined Algorithm Selection and Hyperparameters optimization (CASH) problem is one of the fundamental problems in Automated Machine Learning (AutoML). Motivated by the success of ensemble learning, recent AutoML systems build post-hoc ensembles to output the final predictions instead of using the best single learner. However, while most CASH methods focus on searching for a single learner with the best performance, they neglect the diversity among base learners (i.e., they may suggest similar configurations to previously evaluated ones), which is also a crucial consideration when building an ensemble. To tackle this issue and further enhance the ensemble performance, we propose DivBO, a diversity-aware framework to inject explicit search of diversity into the CASH problems. In the framework, we propose to use a diversity surrogate to predict the pair-wise diversity of two unseen configurations. Furthermore, we introduce a temporary pool and a weighted acquisition function to guide the search of both performance and diversity based on Bayesian optimization. Empirical results on 15 public datasets show that DivBO achieves the best average ranks (1.82 and 1.73) on both validation and test errors among 10 compared methods, including post-hoc designs in recent AutoML systems and state-of-the-art baselines for ensemble learning on CASH problems.

Tree boosting is a highly effective and widely used machine learning method. In this paper, we describe a scalable end-to-end tree boosting system called XGBoost, which is used widely by data scientists to achieve state-of-the-art results on many machine learning challenges. We propose a novel sparsity-aware algorithm for sparse data and weighted quantile sketch for approximate tree learning. More importantly, we provide insights on cache access patterns, data compression and sharding to build a scalable tree boosting system. By combining these insights, XGBoost scales beyond billions of examples using far fewer resources than existing systems.

The efficiency of Federated Learning (FL) is often affected by both data and device heterogeneities. Data heterogeneity is defined as the heterogeneity of data distributions on different clients. Device heterogeneity is defined as the clients' variant latencies in uploading their local model updates due to heterogeneous conditions of local hardware resources, and causes the problem of staleness when being addressed by asynchronous FL. Traditional schemes of tackling the impact of staleness consider data and device heterogeneities as two separate and independent aspects in FL, but this assumption is unrealistic in many practical FL scenarios where data and device heterogeneities are intertwined. In these cases, traditional schemes of weighted aggregation in FL have been proved to be ineffective, and a better approach is to convert a stale model update into a non-stale one. In this paper, we present a new FL framework that leverages the gradient inversion technique for such conversion, hence efficiently tackling unlimited staleness in clients' model updates. Our basic idea is to use gradient inversion to get estimations of clients' local training data from their uploaded stale model updates, and use these estimations to compute non-stale client model updates. In this way, we address the problem of possible data quality drop when using gradient inversion, while still preserving the clients' local data privacy. We compared our approach with the existing FL strategies on mainstream datasets and models, and experiment results demonstrate that when tackling unlimited staleness, our approach can significantly improve the trained model accuracy by up to 20% and speed up the FL training progress by up to 35%.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Federated Semi-supervised Learning (FedSSL) has emerged as a new paradigm for allowing distributed clients to collaboratively train a machine learning model over scarce labeled data and abundant unlabeled data. However, existing works for FedSSL rely on a closed-world assumption that all local training data and global testing data are from seen classes observed in the labeled dataset. It is crucial to go one step further: adapting FL models to an open-world setting, where unseen classes exist in the unlabeled data. In this paper, we propose a novel Federatedopen-world Semi-Supervised Learning (FedoSSL) framework, which can solve the key challenge in distributed and open-world settings, i.e., the biased training process for heterogeneously distributed unseen classes. Specifically, since the advent of a certain unseen class depends on a client basis, the locally unseen classes (exist in multiple clients) are likely to receive differentiated superior aggregation effects than the globally unseen classes (exist only in one client). We adopt an uncertainty-aware suppressed loss to alleviate the biased training between locally unseen and globally unseen classes. Besides, we enable a calibration module supplementary to the global aggregation to avoid potential conflicting knowledge transfer caused by inconsistent data distribution among different clients. The proposed FedoSSL can be easily adapted to state-of-the-art FL methods, which is also validated via extensive experiments on benchmarks and real-world datasets (CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and CINIC-10).