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Mar 12

The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution (TADPOLE) Challenge: Results after 1 Year Follow-up

We present the findings of "The Alzheimer's Disease Prediction Of Longitudinal Evolution" (TADPOLE) Challenge, which compared the performance of 92 algorithms from 33 international teams at predicting the future trajectory of 219 individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. Challenge participants were required to make a prediction, for each month of a 5-year future time period, of three key outcomes: clinical diagnosis, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale Cognitive Subdomain (ADAS-Cog13), and total volume of the ventricles. The methods used by challenge participants included multivariate linear regression, machine learning methods such as support vector machines and deep neural networks, as well as disease progression models. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume prediction, the best algorithms strongly outperform simple baselines in predictive ability. However, for ADAS-Cog13 no single submitted prediction method was significantly better than random guesswork. Two ensemble methods based on taking the mean and median over all predictions, obtained top scores on almost all tasks. Better than average performance at diagnosis prediction was generally associated with the additional inclusion of features from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). On the other hand, better performance at ventricle volume prediction was associated with inclusion of summary statistics, such as the slope or maxima/minima of biomarkers. TADPOLE's unique results suggest that current prediction algorithms provide sufficient accuracy to exploit biomarkers related to clinical diagnosis and ventricle volume, for cohort refinement in clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease. However, results call into question the usage of cognitive test scores for patient selection and as a primary endpoint in clinical trials.

A UV to X-ray view of soft excess in type 1 AGNs: I. sample selection and spectral profile

A core sample of 59 unobscured type 1 AGNs with simultaneous XMM-Newton X-ray and UV observations is compiled from archive to probe the nature of soft X-ray excess (SE). In the first paper of this series, our focus centers on scrutinizing the spectral profile of the soft excess. Of the sources, approx 71% (42/59) exhibit powerlaw-like (po-like) soft excess, while approx 29% (17/59) exhibit blackbody-like (bb-like) soft excess. We show a cut-off powerlaw could uniformly characterize both types of soft excesses, with median Ecut of 1.40 keV for po-like and 0.14 keV for bb-like. For the first time, we report a robust and quantitative correlation between the SE profile and SE strength (the ratio of SE luminosity to that of the primary powerlaw continuum in 0.5 - 2.0 keV), indicating that stronger soft excess is more likely to be po-like, or effectively has a higher Ecut. This correlation cannot be explained by ionized disk reflection alone, which produces mostly bb-like soft excess (Ecut sim 0.1 keV) as revealed by relxilllp simulation. Remarkably, we show with simulations that a toy hybrid scenario, where both ionized disk reflection (relxilllp, with all reflection parameters fixed at default values except for ionization of the disk) and warm corona (compTT, with temperature fixed at 1 keV) contribute to the observed soft excess, can successfully reproduce the observed correlation. This highlights the ubiquitous hybrid nature of the soft X-ray excess in AGNs, and underscores the importance of considering both components while fitting the spectra of soft excess.

Instruct-Tuning Pretrained Causal Language Models for Ancient Greek Papyrology and Epigraphy

This article presents an experiment in fine-tuning a pretrained causal language model (Meta's Llama 3.1 8B Instruct) for aiding in three fundamental tasks of philological research: chronological and geographic attribution as well as text restoration in ancient Greek inscriptions and documentary papyri. Using a prompt-based instruct approach, the fine-tuned models surpass the state of the art in key metrics. For inscriptions, the models achieve a lower average character error rate (CER) of 22.5% (vs. 26.3%), while closely matching top-1 accuracy (60.9% vs. 61.8%) and top-20 accuracy (77.5% vs. 78.3%) for sequences up to 10 characters. They also provide a practical advantage by ignoring spaces during reconstruction, aligning better with the scriptio continua typically used in ancient written artifacts. In geographic attribution, the model outperforms previous benchmarks with a top-1 accuracy of 75.0% (vs. 70.8%) and a top-3 accuracy of 83.7% (vs. 82.1%). For dating, it achieves an average deviation of 26.2 years (vs. 29.3) and a median deviation of 1 year (vs. 3) from the actual date range. The models also set new baselines for documentary papyri, with a CER of 16.3%, a top-1 accuracy of 71.3%, and top-20 of 85.0% in text reconstruction; a top-1 accuracy of 66.4% and top-3 of 79.9% in geographic attribution; and, in chronological attribution, a deviation of 21.7 years from the actual termini post/ante quem, with a median deviation of 0 years.

Generating Drug Repurposing Hypotheses through the Combination of Disease-Specific Hypergraphs

The drug development pipeline for a new compound can last 10-20 years and cost over 10 billion. Drug repurposing offers a more time- and cost-effective alternative. Computational approaches based on biomedical knowledge graph representations have recently yielded new drug repurposing hypotheses. In this study, we present a novel, disease-specific hypergraph representation learning technique to derive contextual embeddings of biological pathways of various lengths but that all start at any given drug and all end at the disease of interest. Further, we extend this method to multi-disease hypergraphs. To determine the repurposing potential of each of the 1,522 drugs, we derive drug-specific distributions of cosine similarity values and ultimately consider the median for ranking. Cosine similarity values are computed between (1) all biological pathways starting at the considered drug and ending at the disease of interest and (2) all biological pathways starting at drugs currently prescribed against that disease and ending at the disease of interest. We illustrate our approach with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and two of its risk factors: hypertension (HTN) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We compare each drug's rank across four hypergraph settings (single- or multi-disease): AD only, AD + HTN, AD + T2D, and AD + HTN + T2D. Notably, our framework led to the identification of two promising drugs whose repurposing potential was significantly higher in hypergraphs combining two diseases: dapagliflozin (antidiabetic; moved up, from top 32% to top 7%, across all considered drugs) and debrisoquine (antihypertensive; moved up, from top 76% to top 23%). Our approach serves as a hypothesis generation tool, to be paired with a validation pipeline relying on laboratory experiments and semi-automated parsing of the biomedical literature.

MD-Splatting: Learning Metric Deformation from 4D Gaussians in Highly Deformable Scenes

Accurate 3D tracking in highly deformable scenes with occlusions and shadows can facilitate new applications in robotics, augmented reality, and generative AI. However, tracking under these conditions is extremely challenging due to the ambiguity that arises with large deformations, shadows, and occlusions. We introduce MD-Splatting, an approach for simultaneous 3D tracking and novel view synthesis, using video captures of a dynamic scene from various camera poses. MD-Splatting builds on recent advances in Gaussian splatting, a method that learns the properties of a large number of Gaussians for state-of-the-art and fast novel view synthesis. MD-Splatting learns a deformation function to project a set of Gaussians with non-metric, thus canonical, properties into metric space. The deformation function uses a neural-voxel encoding and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) to infer Gaussian position, rotation, and a shadow scalar. We enforce physics-inspired regularization terms based on local rigidity, conservation of momentum, and isometry, which leads to trajectories with smaller trajectory errors. MD-Splatting achieves high-quality 3D tracking on highly deformable scenes with shadows and occlusions. Compared to state-of-the-art, we improve 3D tracking by an average of 23.9 %, while simultaneously achieving high-quality novel view synthesis. With sufficient texture such as in scene 6, MD-Splatting achieves a median tracking error of 3.39 mm on a cloth of 1 x 1 meters in size. Project website: https://md-splatting.github.io/.

CEERS Epoch 1 NIRCam Imaging: Reduction Methods and Simulations Enabling Early JWST Science Results

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.

Detecting and Grounding Multi-Modal Media Manipulation

Misinformation has become a pressing issue. Fake media, in both visual and textual forms, is widespread on the web. While various deepfake detection and text fake news detection methods have been proposed, they are only designed for single-modality forgery based on binary classification, let alone analyzing and reasoning subtle forgery traces across different modalities. In this paper, we highlight a new research problem for multi-modal fake media, namely Detecting and Grounding Multi-Modal Media Manipulation (DGM^4). DGM^4 aims to not only detect the authenticity of multi-modal media, but also ground the manipulated content (i.e., image bounding boxes and text tokens), which requires deeper reasoning of multi-modal media manipulation. To support a large-scale investigation, we construct the first DGM^4 dataset, where image-text pairs are manipulated by various approaches, with rich annotation of diverse manipulations. Moreover, we propose a novel HierArchical Multi-modal Manipulation rEasoning tRansformer (HAMMER) to fully capture the fine-grained interaction between different modalities. HAMMER performs 1) manipulation-aware contrastive learning between two uni-modal encoders as shallow manipulation reasoning, and 2) modality-aware cross-attention by multi-modal aggregator as deep manipulation reasoning. Dedicated manipulation detection and grounding heads are integrated from shallow to deep levels based on the interacted multi-modal information. Finally, we build an extensive benchmark and set up rigorous evaluation metrics for this new research problem. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our model; several valuable observations are also revealed to facilitate future research in multi-modal media manipulation.

Scraping Social Media Photos Posted in Kenya and Elsewhere to Detect and Analyze Food Types

Monitoring population-level changes in diet could be useful for education and for implementing interventions to improve health. Research has shown that data from social media sources can be used for monitoring dietary behavior. We propose a scrape-by-location methodology to create food image datasets from Instagram posts. We used it to collect 3.56 million images over a period of 20 days in March 2019. We also propose a scrape-by-keywords methodology and used it to scrape ~30,000 images and their captions of 38 Kenyan food types. We publish two datasets of 104,000 and 8,174 image/caption pairs, respectively. With the first dataset, Kenya104K, we train a Kenyan Food Classifier, called KenyanFC, to distinguish Kenyan food from non-food images posted in Kenya. We used the second dataset, KenyanFood13, to train a classifier KenyanFTR, short for Kenyan Food Type Recognizer, to recognize 13 popular food types in Kenya. The KenyanFTR is a multimodal deep neural network that can identify 13 types of Kenyan foods using both images and their corresponding captions. Experiments show that the average top-1 accuracy of KenyanFC is 99% over 10,400 tested Instagram images and of KenyanFTR is 81% over 8,174 tested data points. Ablation studies show that three of the 13 food types are particularly difficult to categorize based on image content only and that adding analysis of captions to the image analysis yields a classifier that is 9 percent points more accurate than a classifier that relies only on images. Our food trend analysis revealed that cakes and roasted meats were the most popular foods in photographs on Instagram in Kenya in March 2019.

QuakeSet: A Dataset and Low-Resource Models to Monitor Earthquakes through Sentinel-1

Earthquake monitoring is necessary to promptly identify the affected areas, the severity of the events, and, finally, to estimate damages and plan the actions needed for the restoration process. The use of seismic stations to monitor the strength and origin of earthquakes is limited when dealing with remote areas (we cannot have global capillary coverage). Identification and analysis of all affected areas is mandatory to support areas not monitored by traditional stations. Using social media images in crisis management has proven effective in various situations. However, they are still limited by the possibility of using communication infrastructures in case of an earthquake and by the presence of people in the area. Moreover, social media images and messages cannot be used to estimate the actual severity of earthquakes and their characteristics effectively. The employment of satellites to monitor changes around the globe grants the possibility of exploiting instrumentation that is not limited by the visible spectrum, the presence of land infrastructures, and people in the affected areas. In this work, we propose a new dataset composed of images taken from Sentinel-1 and a new series of tasks to help monitor earthquakes from a new detailed view. Coupled with the data, we provide a series of traditional machine learning and deep learning models as baselines to assess the effectiveness of ML-based models in earthquake analysis.

HICL: Hashtag-Driven In-Context Learning for Social Media Natural Language Understanding

Natural language understanding (NLU) is integral to various social media applications. However, existing NLU models rely heavily on context for semantic learning, resulting in compromised performance when faced with short and noisy social media content. To address this issue, we leverage in-context learning (ICL), wherein language models learn to make inferences by conditioning on a handful of demonstrations to enrich the context and propose a novel hashtag-driven in-context learning (HICL) framework. Concretely, we pre-train a model #Encoder, which employs #hashtags (user-annotated topic labels) to drive BERT-based pre-training through contrastive learning. Our objective here is to enable #Encoder to gain the ability to incorporate topic-related semantic information, which allows it to retrieve topic-related posts to enrich contexts and enhance social media NLU with noisy contexts. To further integrate the retrieved context with the source text, we employ a gradient-based method to identify trigger terms useful in fusing information from both sources. For empirical studies, we collected 45M tweets to set up an in-context NLU benchmark, and the experimental results on seven downstream tasks show that HICL substantially advances the previous state-of-the-art results. Furthermore, we conducted extensive analyzes and found that: (1) combining source input with a top-retrieved post from #Encoder is more effective than using semantically similar posts; (2) trigger words can largely benefit in merging context from the source and retrieved posts.

MentalLLaMA: Interpretable Mental Health Analysis on Social Media with Large Language Models

With the development of web technology, social media texts are becoming a rich source for automatic mental health analysis. As traditional discriminative methods bear the problem of low interpretability, the recent large language models have been explored for interpretable mental health analysis on social media, which aims to provide detailed explanations along with predictions. The results show that ChatGPT can generate approaching-human explanations for its correct classifications. However, LLMs still achieve unsatisfactory classification performance in a zero-shot/few-shot manner. Domain-specific finetuning is an effective solution, but faces 2 challenges: 1) lack of high-quality training data. 2) no open-source LLMs for interpretable mental health analysis were released to lower the finetuning cost. To alleviate these problems, we build the first multi-task and multi-source interpretable mental health instruction (IMHI) dataset on social media, with 105K data samples. The raw social media data are collected from 10 existing sources covering 8 mental health analysis tasks. We use expert-written few-shot prompts and collected labels to prompt ChatGPT and obtain explanations from its responses. To ensure the reliability of the explanations, we perform strict automatic and human evaluations on the correctness, consistency, and quality of generated data. Based on the IMHI dataset and LLaMA2 foundation models, we train MentalLLaMA, the first open-source LLM series for interpretable mental health analysis with instruction-following capability. We also evaluate the performance of MentalLLaMA on the IMHI evaluation benchmark with 10 test sets, where their correctness for making predictions and the quality of explanations are examined. The results show that MentalLLaMA approaches state-of-the-art discriminative methods in correctness and generates high-quality explanations.

SEntFiN 1.0: Entity-Aware Sentiment Analysis for Financial News

Fine-grained financial sentiment analysis on news headlines is a challenging task requiring human-annotated datasets to achieve high performance. Limited studies have tried to address the sentiment extraction task in a setting where multiple entities are present in a news headline. In an effort to further research in this area, we make publicly available SEntFiN 1.0, a human-annotated dataset of 10,753 news headlines with entity-sentiment annotations, of which 2,847 headlines contain multiple entities, often with conflicting sentiments. We augment our dataset with a database of over 1,000 financial entities and their various representations in news media amounting to over 5,000 phrases. We propose a framework that enables the extraction of entity-relevant sentiments using a feature-based approach rather than an expression-based approach. For sentiment extraction, we utilize 12 different learning schemes utilizing lexicon-based and pre-trained sentence representations and five classification approaches. Our experiments indicate that lexicon-based n-gram ensembles are above par with pre-trained word embedding schemes such as GloVe. Overall, RoBERTa and finBERT (domain-specific BERT) achieve the highest average accuracy of 94.29% and F1-score of 93.27%. Further, using over 210,000 entity-sentiment predictions, we validate the economic effect of sentiments on aggregate market movements over a long duration.

DreamRunner: Fine-Grained Storytelling Video Generation with Retrieval-Augmented Motion Adaptation

Storytelling video generation (SVG) has recently emerged as a task to create long, multi-motion, multi-scene videos that consistently represent the story described in the input text script. SVG holds great potential for diverse content creation in media and entertainment; however, it also presents significant challenges: (1) objects must exhibit a range of fine-grained, complex motions, (2) multiple objects need to appear consistently across scenes, and (3) subjects may require multiple motions with seamless transitions within a single scene. To address these challenges, we propose DreamRunner, a novel story-to-video generation method: First, we structure the input script using a large language model (LLM) to facilitate both coarse-grained scene planning as well as fine-grained object-level layout and motion planning. Next, DreamRunner presents retrieval-augmented test-time adaptation to capture target motion priors for objects in each scene, supporting diverse motion customization based on retrieved videos, thus facilitating the generation of new videos with complex, scripted motions. Lastly, we propose a novel spatial-temporal region-based 3D attention and prior injection module SR3AI for fine-grained object-motion binding and frame-by-frame semantic control. We compare DreamRunner with various SVG baselines, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in character consistency, text alignment, and smooth transitions. Additionally, DreamRunner exhibits strong fine-grained condition-following ability in compositional text-to-video generation, significantly outperforming baselines on T2V-ComBench. Finally, we validate DreamRunner's robust ability to generate multi-object interactions with qualitative examples.

Concept-Guided Chain-of-Thought Prompting for Pairwise Comparison Scoring of Texts with Large Language Models

Existing text scoring methods require a large corpus, struggle with short texts, or require hand-labeled data. We develop a text scoring framework that leverages generative large language models (LLMs) to (1) set texts against the backdrop of information from the near-totality of the web and digitized media, and (2) effectively transform pairwise text comparisons from a reasoning problem to a pattern recognition task. Our approach, concept-guided chain-of-thought (CGCoT), utilizes a chain of researcher-designed prompts with an LLM to generate a concept-specific breakdown for each text, akin to guidance provided to human coders. We then pairwise compare breakdowns using an LLM and aggregate answers into a score using a probability model. We apply this approach to better understand speech reflecting aversion to specific political parties on Twitter, a topic that has commanded increasing interest because of its potential contributions to democratic backsliding. We achieve stronger correlations with human judgments than widely used unsupervised text scoring methods like Wordfish. In a supervised setting, besides a small pilot dataset to develop CGCoT prompts, our measures require no additional hand-labeled data and produce predictions on par with RoBERTa-Large fine-tuned on thousands of hand-labeled tweets. This project showcases the potential of combining human expertise and LLMs for scoring tasks.

PrivacyLens: Evaluating Privacy Norm Awareness of Language Models in Action

As language models (LMs) are widely utilized in personalized communication scenarios (e.g., sending emails, writing social media posts) and endowed with a certain level of agency, ensuring they act in accordance with the contextual privacy norms becomes increasingly critical. However, quantifying the privacy norm awareness of LMs and the emerging privacy risk in LM-mediated communication is challenging due to (1) the contextual and long-tailed nature of privacy-sensitive cases, and (2) the lack of evaluation approaches that capture realistic application scenarios. To address these challenges, we propose PrivacyLens, a novel framework designed to extend privacy-sensitive seeds into expressive vignettes and further into agent trajectories, enabling multi-level evaluation of privacy leakage in LM agents' actions. We instantiate PrivacyLens with a collection of privacy norms grounded in privacy literature and crowdsourced seeds. Using this dataset, we reveal a discrepancy between LM performance in answering probing questions and their actual behavior when executing user instructions in an agent setup. State-of-the-art LMs, like GPT-4 and Llama-3-70B, leak sensitive information in 25.68% and 38.69% of cases, even when prompted with privacy-enhancing instructions. We also demonstrate the dynamic nature of PrivacyLens by extending each seed into multiple trajectories to red-team LM privacy leakage risk. Dataset and code are available at https://github.com/SALT-NLP/PrivacyLens.

Detecting Fermi Surface Nesting Effect for Fermionic Dicke Transition by Trap Induced Localization

Recently, the statistical effect of fermionic superradiance is approved by series of experiments both in free space and in a cavity. The Pauli blocking effect can be visualized by a 1/2 scaling of Dicke transition critical pumping strength against particle number Nat for fermions in a trap. However, the Fermi surface nesting effect, which manifests the enhancement of superradiance by Fermi statistics is still very hard to be identified. Here we studied the influence of localized fermions on the trap edge when both pumping optical lattice and the trap are presented. We find due to localization, the statistical effect in superradiant transition is enhanced. Two new scalings of critical pumping strength are observed as 4/3, and 2/3 for mediate particle number, and the Pauli blocking scaling 1/3 (2d case) in large particle number limit is unaffected. Further, we find the 4/3 scaling is subject to a power law increasing with rising ratio between recoil energy and trap frequency in pumping laser direction. The divergence of this scaling of critical pumping strength against N_{rm at} in E_R/omega_xrightarrow+infty limit can be identified as the Fermi surface nesting effect. Thus we find a practical experimental scheme for visualizing the long-desired Fermi surface nesting effect with the help of trap induced localization in a two-dimensional Fermi gas in a cavity.

Research on the Impact of Executive Shareholding on New Investment in Enterprises Based on Multivariable Linear Regression Model

Based on principal-agent theory and optimal contract theory, companies use the method of increasing executives' shareholding to stimulate collaborative innovation. However, from the aspect of agency costs between management and shareholders (i.e. the first type) and between major shareholders and minority shareholders (i.e. the second type), the interests of management, shareholders and creditors will be unbalanced with the change of the marginal utility of executive equity incentives.In order to establish the correlation between the proportion of shares held by executives and investments in corporate innovation, we have chosen a range of publicly listed companies within China's A-share market as the focus of our study. Employing a multi-variable linear regression model, we aim to analyze this relationship thoroughly.The following models were developed: (1) the impact model of executive shareholding on corporate innovation investment; (2) the impact model of executive shareholding on two types of agency costs; (3)The model is employed to examine the mediating influence of the two categories of agency costs. Following both correlation and regression analyses, the findings confirm a meaningful and positive correlation between executives' shareholding and the augmentation of corporate innovation investments. Additionally, the results indicate that executive shareholding contributes to the reduction of the first type of agency cost, thereby fostering corporate innovation investment. However, simultaneously, it leads to an escalation in the second type of agency cost, thus impeding corporate innovation investment.