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The Intranasal Application of Zanamivir and Carrageenan Is Synergistically Active against Influenza A Virus in the Murine Model https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4459876/ SHA: f0b1fa4036434b57c8307d43c39a4193f7e8053a Authors: Morokutti-Kurz, Martina; König-Schuster, Marielle; Koller, Christiane; Graf, Christine; Graf, Philipp; Kirchoff, Norman; Reutterer, Benjamin; Seifert, Jan-Marcus; Unger, Hermann; Grassauer, Andreas; Prieschl-Grassauer, Eva; Nakowitsch, Sabine Date: 2015-06-08 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128794 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Carrageenan is a clinically proven and marketed compound for the treatment of viral upper respiratory tract infections. As infections caused by influenza virus are often accompanied by infections with other respiratory viruses the combination of a specific anti-influenza compound with the broadly active antiviral polymer has huge potential for the treatment of respiratory infections. Thus, the combination of the specific anti-influenza drug Zanamivir together with carrageenan in a formulation suitable for intranasal application was evaluated in-vitro and in-vivo. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We show in-vitro that carrageenan and Zanamivir act synergistically against several influenza A virus strains (H1N1(09)pdm, H3N2, H5N1, H7N7). Moreover, we demonstrate in a lethal influenza model with a low pathogenic H7N7 virus (HA closely related to the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus) and a H1N1(09)pdm influenza virus in C57BL/6 mice that the combined use of both compounds significantly increases survival of infected animals in comparison with both mono-therapies or placebo. Remarkably, this benefit is maintained even when the treatment starts up to 72 hours post infection. CONCLUSION: A nasal spray containing carrageenan and Zanamivir should therefore be tested for prevention and treatment of uncomplicated influenza in clinical trials. Text: The periodic appearance of new influenza variants poses a worldwide pandemic threat. Since the emergence of the new A(H7N9) virus, more than 400 human cases were reported to the WHO with a mortality rate of more than 35%. Most patients with A(H7N9) infections had contact with poultry or visited live animal markets. However, some sporadic cases seemed to be a result of human to human transmissions [1, 2] . In contrast to pandemic viruses which fulminantly enter the human population and cause high mortality rates, seasonal influenza viruses generally cause uncomplicated and transient infections in humans, with virus replication localized to the upper respiratory tract [3, 4] . However, in its fully developed form influenza is an acute respiratory disease resulting in hospitalizations and deaths mainly among high-risk groups. Worldwide, annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths [5] . For this reason WHO [6] and CDC [7] recommend antiviral treatment for any patient with suspected influenza who is at risk for influenza complications without previous laboratory confirmation. It is known that influenza virus infections are often accompanied by other viral pathogens [8] . Depending on the detection method (qRT-PCR or immunofluorescence) different ratios of co-infections have been found. Analysis by qRT-PCR revealed that 54.5-83.3% of influenza A or B positive patients were found to have at least one concomitant respiratory viral infection [9] [10] [11] [12] . The detection frequency with immunofluorescence was found to be even higher (90-100%) [13, 14] . Potential concomitant viral pathogens of influenza virus infections include human rhinovirus (hRV), respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, human coronavirus, human metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [14, 15] . As a result of the multiple infections, a specific anti-influenza mono-therapy treats the influenza virus infection only, but not the infection with the concomitant viral pathogen. Hence, the therapy often fails to sufficiently resolve symptoms. This is also reflected by the fact that neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) are highly efficacious in animal models investigating influenza mono-infections [16, 17] but show lower efficacy against influenza symptoms in clinical trials in adults with natural infections [18] . Therefore, there is a high medical need for a broadly acting antiviral therapy in combination with a specific anti-influenza therapy for treatment of patients suffering from upper respiratory tract symptoms. Ideally, the substances present in the combination complement each other by different modes of action, leading to a treatment that provides full protection against a broad range of different respiratory viruses as well as different influenza strains with a low probability to induce escape mutations. One approach for a broad antiviral therapy is the creation of a protective physical barrier in the nasal cavity using carrageenan. Carrageenan is a high molecular weight sulfated polymer derived from red seaweed (Rhodophyceae) that has been extensively used in food, cosmetic and pharmaceutical industry and is generally recognized as safe by the FDA (GRAS) (reviewed in [19] ). Three main forms of carrageenans are commercially used: kappa, iota and lambda. They differ from each other in the degree of sulfation, solubility and gelling properties [20] . The antiviral mechanism of carrageenan is based on the interference with viral attachment; as a consequence, viral entry is inhibited [21, 22] . Its antiviral activity is dependent on the type of polymer as well as the virus and the host cells [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] and has been reviewed in [33] [34] [35] . We published that iota-carrageenan is a potent inhibitor of hRV [36] and influenza A [37] replication and demonstrated the antiviral efficacy of iota-carrageenan against common cold viruses by intranasal application in several randomized, double-blind, parallel group, placebo-controlled clinical trials [38] [39] [40] . The pooled analysis of two studies conducted in 153 children and 203 adults revealed that patients infected with any respiratory virus, who were intranasally treated with iota-carrageenan showed a 1.9 day faster recovery from common cold symptoms than placebo treated patients in the intention-to-treat population [41, 42] . The anti-influenza activity was shown by subgroup analysis of 49 influenza infected patients who benefited from a 3.3 days faster recovery from symptoms. The use of carrageenan nasal spray was associated with a significant reduction of the influenza viral load in nasal fluids and a significant increase in the number of virus free patients within the treatment period of 7 days. In good accordance Prieschl-Grassauer are co-founders of Marinomed Biotechnologie GmbH. Marinomed Biotechnologie GmbH had a role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, preparation of the manuscript and is financing the processing charge of the manuscript. with the literature [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] we observed that the majority of influenza virus infected patients suffered from a concomitant respiratory viral infection (66%) as determined by real-time PCR. Carrageenan containing nasal sprays are already marketed for the treatment of respiratory viral infections under different brand names in 18 countries. At present the only available effective drugs for treatment and post exposure prevention of influenza are the NI (Oseltamivir and Zanamivir worldwide; Peramivir in Japan and South Korea). Since the large-scale use of M2 blockers for prophylaxis and treatment in humans [43] and farming [44] , the currently circulating influenza viruses already lack sensitivity to this drug group [45] . We have already shown an additive therapeutic effect of a combination therapy with intranasally applied iota-carrageenan and orally administered Oseltamivir in lethally H1N1 A/PR/ 8/34 infected mice and a treatment start 48 hours post infection (hpi) [37] . Due to these very promising results we further developed the concept of combining carrageenan with an NI therapy. In contrast to Oseltamivir, which needs to be activated by metabolic conversion, Zanamivir is directly applied as active drug and can also be administered intranasally [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] . The potential of an intranasal administration of Zanamivir was investigated by GlaxoSmithKline. In seven clinical challenge trials 66 volunteers were infected with influenza B/Yamagata/16/88 and 213 with influenza A/Texas/36/91 (H1N1). 156 of these participants got intranasally applied Zanamivir at different doses (daily dose levels from 6.4 mg to 96 mg) for prophylaxis or therapy [46, 47, 53, 54] . These challenge trials showed that treatment starting before and up to 36 hours post virus inoculation was associated with prevention of laboratory confirmed influenza and febrile illness as well as a reduction in viral titers, duration of shedding and symptoms. In total, safety data from 1092 patients after intranasal application of Zanamivir were published and no evidence for Zanamivir induced adverse events or increased frequencies of local nasal intolerance in comparison to placebo groups was found [46, 49, 52] . Taken together, the combination of a carrageenan nasal spray that provides broad antiviral activity against upper respiratory infections-including influenza-with Zanamivir, a specific anti-influenza drug, meets the existing medical need to treat multiple viral infections. In the present work we investigate the therapeutic effect of a combination of carrageenan and Zanamivir in-vitro and in an animal model. Kappa-carrageenan and iota-carrageenan were purchased from FMC Biopolymers (Philadelphia, PA). The identity, purity (>95%) of carrageenan subtypes and the molecular weight (>100,000) was confirmed by NMR analysis as described elsewhere [55] and the presence of lambda-carrageenan was below the detection limit of 3%. The dry polymer powders were dissolved in aqua bidest (Fresenius Kabi, Austria) to a final concentration of 2.4 mg/ml iota-and 0.8 mg/ml kappa-carrageenan. This 2x stock solution was sterile filtered through a 0.22 μm filter (PAA, Switzerland) and stored at room temperature until use. For further testing the stock solution was diluted to a mixture containing 1.2 mg/ml iota-carrageenan and 0.4 mg/ml kappa-carrageenan (hereinafter referred to as "carrageenan"). Zanamivir was purchased as powder (Haosun Pharma, China) and the identity and purity was confirmed by NMR analysis. Zanamivir was either dissolved in carrageenan or placebo solutions, followed by sterile filtration through a 0.22 μm filter (Sarstedt, Germany). For in-vivo studies all Zanamivir containing solutions were freshly prepared. Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells were obtained from the American Type Culture Collection (ATCC, Manassas, VA) and cultivated in a 37°C incubator (Sanyo, Japan; CO 2 : 5%, relative humidity: >95%). MDCK cells were grown in Dulbecco's minimal essential (DMEM) high glucose medium (PAA, Austria) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (FBS; PAA, Austria; heat inactivated). Influenza virus A/Hansa Hamburg/01/09 (H1N1(09)pdm) was kindly provided by Peter Staeheli Department of Virology, University of Freiburg, Germany and previously described in [56] ; A/Teal/Germany/Wv632/05 (H5N1) previously published in [57] (accession numbers CY061882-9) and A/Turkey/Germany/R11/01 (H7N7) (taxonomy ID 278191, accession number AEZ68716) were supplied by courtesy of Martin Beer, Institute of Diagnostic Virology, Friedrich-Loeffler-Institute, Riems, Germany; A/Aichi/2/68 (H3N2) was purchased from the ATCC. All influenza viruses were propagated in MDCK cells at 37°C and 5% CO 2 in influenza medium [Opti-Pro serum free medium (Gibco, Austria) supplemented with 4 mM L-glutamine (PAA, Austria), 1% antibiotic-antimycotic mix (PAA, Austria) and 5 μg/ml trypsin (Sigma Aldrich, Austria)]. To determine the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC 50 ) and the combination effect of carrageenan and Zanamivir, a semi-liquid plaque assay was developed. Into 96 well tissue culture plates 1.7x10 4 MDCK cells/well were seeded and infected at 90% confluence (24-28 hours later). Serial dilutions of carrageenan and Zanamivir were prepared in assay medium (influenza medium without trypsin). For infection, viruses were diluted to an MOI of 0.003 (H1N1(09)pdm and H3N2 Aichi), 0.015 (H5N1) or 0.004 (H7N7), respectively, in assay medium and incubated at room temperature (RT) for 10 min with the serial dilutions of carrageenan and/or Zanamivir, respectively. For evaluation of the combination effect of carrageenan and Zanamivir, viruses were diluted in assay medium containing constant concentrations of either carrageenan or Zanamivir. The other substance was serially diluted and used for virus incubation. Cells were infected in 6 replicates/compound dilution, respectively, and incubated at RT for 45 min before inoculum removal. Cells were further incubated with the respective concentration of the investigated substances present in the overlay [influenza medium with 2.25% Carboxymethylcellulose (CMC, Fluka, Austria)] for 30-42 hours at 37°C. Evolving plaques were evaluated after methanol/acetone cell fixation by immune staining with antibodies either directed against the influenza A nucleoprotein (AbD Serotec, Germany) (for H1N1(09)pdm, H5N1 and H7N7) or the hemagglutinin (AbD Serotec, Germany) (for H3N2). Analysis was done with a HRP labeled detection antibody (Thermo Scientific, Germany) using TMB (Biolegend, Germany) as substrate and a microplate reader at 450 nm. The reduction of detected signal represents a reduction in the number and size of plaques and indicates suppression of viral replication during infection and cultivation. After the immunostaining cells were stained with 0.005% crystal violet solution to assess the condition of the cell layer and the toxicity of the compounds. IC 50 values and standard deviations were calculated for a sigmoidal dose response model using XLfit Excel add-in version 5.3.1.3. All animal experiments were carried out according to the guidelines of the "European Convention for the Protection of Vertebrate Animals used for Experimental and other Scientific Purposes" and the Austrian law for animal experiments. All animal experiments were approved by the Veterinary University of Vienna institutional ethics committee and performed under the Austrian Federal Ministry of Science and Research experimental animal license numbers BMWF-68.205/0262-II/3b/2011 and BMWF-68.205/0142-II/3b2012. C57BL/6 mice were purchased from Janvier Labs, France and maintained under standard laboratory conditions in the animal facilities of the Veterinary University of Vienna. For euthanasia and anesthesia asphyxiation through CO 2 was used and all efforts were made to minimize suffering. For infection experiments, 3-5 weeks old female mice were intranasally inoculated with 50 μl influenza virus solution (25 μl/nostril) containing 2.27x10 3 or 1.65x10 3 plaque-forming unit of H1N1(09)pdm or H7N7, respectively. Subsequently, treatment started 24, 48 or 72 hpi, as indicated for the different experiments. Treatment was performed intranasally either with 50 μl therapeutic solution or placebo twice per day for 5 days. As therapy either carrageenan (containing 1.2 mg/ml iota-carrageenan and 0.4 mg/ml kappa-carrageenan to provide a daily dose of 12 mg/kg body weight (BW)), Zanamivir (containing either 130 μg/ml or 390 μg/ml Zanamivir, to provide a daily dose of 1 or 3 mg/kg BW, respectively) or a combination of carrageenan and Zanamivir were used. Carrageenan and Zanamivir are used at non-toxic concentrations as shown by [58] and [59] . Mice were monitored twice daily for 15 days for survival and weight loss. Mortality also includes mice that were sacrificed for ethical considerations when they had lost more than 25% of their initial body weight. We confirm the viral infection in these animals by necropsy and scoring of the lung inflammation. As the mechanisms underlying the antiviral activity of NI and carrageenans are fundamentally distinct, they are likely to exhibit different activities towards the individual influenza virus strains. As a result, in combination they could complement each other to provide protection against a broader spectrum of influenza virus strains than the individual compounds. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the sensitivity of various influenza virus strains to Zanamivir and carrageenan in an adapted plaque reduction assay with semi-liquid overlay in MDCK cells [60, 61] . Using this method, we determined the IC 50 of Zanamivir and carrageenan against influenza A viruses of human and animal origin, namely H1N1(09)pdm (A/Hansa Hamburg/01/09), H3N2 (A/Aichi/2/68), low pathogenic (LP) H5N1 (A/Teal/Germany/ Wv632/05) and LP H7N7 (A/Turkey/Germany/R11/01) ( Table 1) . Both substances were nontoxic at the highest tested concentration (400 μM Zanamivir and 533 μg/ml carrageenan), neither was their combination. Furthermore, CMC in the overlay did not show any virus inhibitory effect (data not shown). Inhibition of viral replication of all tested influenza strains was achieved with both substances. However, the IC 50 values varied widely depending on the influenza virus strain. The IC 50 values of Zanamivir ranged between 0.18 μM for H5N1 and 22.97 μM for H7N7 and that of carrageenan from 0.39 μg/ml to 118.48 μg/ml for H1N1(09)pdm and H7N7, respectively (see Table 1 ). These results demonstrate that carrageenan and Zanamivir target individual influenza strains to different extents so that they may complement each other to provide broader anti-influenza activity. The type of compound interaction was characterized by employing isobolograms (Fig 1) . As described in [62] , isobolograms graphically compare the doses of two compounds needed to reach 50% inhibition to the predicted doses calculated based on a model of drug additivity. A curve linearity of~1 is expected for an additive compound interaction whereas a curve progression <1 argue for synergistic and >1 for an antagonistic compound interaction. Two virus strains were selected for those experiments, one being the most sensitive to carrageenan (H1N1(09)pdm) and one being the least sensitive (H7N7). In both cases the isobolograms show a synergistic interaction of carrageenan and Zanamivir (Fig 1) . Thus, it was shown that Zanamivir and carrageenan target individual influenza viruses with different efficiencies, most probably due to their different antiviral strategies. As a result, the combination provides synergistic activity with higher protection against a broader spectrum of influenza virus strains than the individual compounds. In the influenza animal model, C57Bl/6 mice are challenged with a lethal dose of the respective virus and treated with different regimens in comparison to a vehicle control (placebo). Infection and treatment (twice a day for 5 days) are done intranasally without anesthesia. We investigated whether the combination of Zanamivir and carrageenan is more efficacious in reducing mortality than the corresponding mono-therapies. First, we determined the minimal effective dose of a Zanamivir mono-therapy that significantly improved survival time of H1N1 and H7N7 infected mice. For the H7N7 lethal infection the minimal effective dose of Zanamivir as mono-therapy ranged between 1 and 3 mg/kg BW/ day (data not shown). Next, we compared the antiviral activity of carrageenan (12 mg/kg BW/ day) and Zanamivir (1 and 3 mg/kg BW/day) mono-therapies with the respective combination versus placebo treatment. Survival rates of mice with treatment starting 24 hpi are shown in Fig 2A. All placebo treated mice died between day 7 and 9 and also in all mono-therapy groups 100% lethality was observed until day 15. In contrast, the combination therapies led to 50% and 90% survival, depending on the Zanamivir concentration. Statistical analysis showed that the Zanamivir mono-therapy 1 mg/kg BW/day did not show a significant benefit (p = 0.1810), whereas the mono-therapy with 3 mg/kg BW/day significantly increased the survival rate compared with placebo treated mice (p = 0.0016). Both Zanamivir concentrations experienced significant benefit in survival by the combination with carrageenan (p<0.0001). Similarly, the combination therapies resulted in remarkably increased survival (p = 0.0421 for 1 mg and p<0.0001 for 3 mg/kg BW/day) when compared to the carrageenan mono-therapy. No statistically significant difference was observed between the combination containing 3 mg/kg BW/day Zanamivir and that containing 1 mg/kg BW/day (p = 0.0525). However, a trend for an increased survival rate with the higher Zanamivir concentration was evident. Therefore, for further investigation the combination therapy containing 3 mg/kg BW/day Zanamivir was evaluated in lethally H7N7 infected mice. Next, the therapeutic potential of the combination with a delayed therapy start 48 or 72 hpi versus placebo treatment was explored. The survival rates of mice are shown in Fig 2B. All placebo treated mice died until day 10 and also in the group with the treatment start 72 hpi 100% lethality was found. In contrast, the combination therapy starting 48 hpi provided a statistically significant enhanced survival rate in comparison to placebo-treated mice (p = 0.0010). In summary, the combination of two effective, established mono-therapies resulted in a significantly enhanced survival in lethally H7N7 infected mice. Additionally, the combination therapy was highly efficient in comparison to placebo treatment even after a treatment onset up to 48 hpi. Intranasal therapy with carrageenan and Zanamivir starting 72 hpi significantly protects lethally influenza H1N1(09)pdm infected mice Next, the minimal effective dose of Zanamivir used as mono-therapy was evaluated in a lethal H1N1(09)pdm mouse model, following the same scheme as described in the H7N7 experiments. The lowest effective dose of Zanamivir after a treatment start 24 hpi was 1 mg/kg BW/ day and its combination with carrageenan was highly effective (data not shown). In the following experiment the therapeutic potential of the combination with a therapy start 48 or 72 hpi was investigated in comparison with the respective placebo treatment. As shown in Fig 3, the survival rates of mice treated with the combination therapy were highly significantly increased in comparison to the placebo group (p<0.0001). There was no difference in survival between the two therapy starting points, 48 or 72 hpi, which both resulted We investigated the antiviral effect of a combination of carrageenan with the NI Zanamivir in cell culture studies and in mouse influenza infection models. We have previously shown that a combined therapy of iota-carrageenan with the NI Oseltamivir led to significantly enhanced survival in mice infected with H1N1 PR/8/34 in comparison with the respective mono-therapies [37] . However, Oseltamivir is an orally administered prodrug, which has to be converted into its active form by metabolic processing. Therefore, a further development of a combination nasal spray was not possible with Oseltamivir. Instead Zanamivir-a NI that is applied as active drug-was chosen for the development of a compound combination. During the evaluation process we found that the binding efficiency of different carrageenan subtypes on different influenza strains varies. The combined use of iota-and kappa-carrageenan for the treatment of lethally influenza infected C57Bl/6 mice revealed a better therapeutic effect than the use of iota-carrageenan alone (S1 Fig). Thus, to provide a broader spectrum of activity against different influenza virus strains, a mixture of iota-and kappa-carrageenan (designated as carrageenan) was used for further evaluation. For investigation of the effect of a compound combination of carrageenan and Zanamivir, we examined their inhibition efficiency, individually and in combination, against influenza viruses in an adapted plaque reduction assay with semi-liquid overlay in MDCK cells. The combination showed a synergistic inhibition of virus replication in in-vitro assays with all tested influenza viruses (Fig 1) . This indicates that the physical interaction of the polymer with the virus does not disturb the inhibition of the neuraminidase by Zanamivir. This was confirmed in in-vitro tests examining a potential influence of the polymer on the neuraminidase inhibiting activity of Zanamivir (data not shown). Hence, the observed synergistic effect is based on the combination of two distinct underlying mechanisms. As a result, in the proposed combination both mechanisms would complement each other to provide more efficient protection against a broader spectrum of influenza virus strains than the individual compounds. The synergistic effect was also shown in lethal mice models (Fig 2 and Fig 3) . The pathogenicity of influenza viruses in mice varies and is dependent on the strain and its adaptation to the host. Depending on virus dose and strain, influenza viruses can induce lethal infections in certain mouse strains usually within two weeks [37, 63] . In our model, C57Bl/6 mice are challenged intranasally with a lethal dose of the respective virus and treated with different regimens in comparison to a vehicle control (placebo). In such a model, early virus replication takes place in the upper respiratory tract. From there, virus spreads to the lung and causes lethal pneumonia. The effect of the treatment on mortality is assessed in comparison to placebotreated control mice. Of all in-vitro tested influenza strains the H1N1(09)pdm and the LP H7N7 are particularly interesting for two reasons. First, they are highly relevant pathogens, as placebo or with the mono-therapies consisting of carrageenan (12 mg/kg BW/day) or Zanamivir (1 and 3 mg/ kg BW/day) or a combination thereof. Treatment started 24 hpi and continued for 5 days. (B) Mice (n = 20 per group) were lethally intranasally infected without anesthesia on day 0 and intranasally treated twice per day either with placebo or a combination of carrageenan with Zanamivir (3 mg/kg BW/day). Treatment started either 48 hpi or 72 hpi and continued for 5 days. On the y-axis the survival of mice [%] and on the x-axis the time post infection [days] is given. Placebo treated uninfected control mice showed 100% survival in both experiments (data not shown). Statistical analyses were conducted using log rank test and are shown beneath the graphs. Values of p<0.05 were considered statistically significant; non-significance (n.s.) was obtained with p-values >0.05. both are involved in recent influenza outbreaks. The H1N1(09)pdm is associated with more than 18,400 deaths in the season 2009/2010 while the LP H7N7 carries an HA closely related to that of the avian influenza H7N9 virus which has caused more than 175 deaths until October 2014 [64] . Second, they are of special interest for the carrageenan/Zanamivir combination approach. They have shown to differ in in-vitro susceptibility to carrageenan, Zanamivir (Table 1 ) and the combination thereof (Fig 1) . While H1N1(09)pdm was highly sensitive to inhibition by both substances alone, H7N7 required much higher concentrations of carrageenan and Zanamivir, respectively, to achieve similar inhibition efficiencies. Therefore, both virus strains were chosen to further explore the efficiency of the combination therapy in a mouse model. We established lethal mouse models with both viruses that resulted in 6.8 and 8.5 mean survival days for LP H7N7 and H1N1(09)pdm, respectively. These results are in good accordance to similar already published lethal influenza models [65] [66] [67] . In our models the lowest effective dose for Zanamivir at a treatment start 24 hpi was found to be between 1 to 3 mg/kg BW/day for both viruses. This concentration range is relatively high in comparison to other published studies. However, these studies were done under anesthesia with different viruses and a prophylactic therapy start [65, 66] . The fact that a higher dose of NI is needed for an effective treatment when the therapy starts 24 hpi is already known for Oseltamivir [68] . Nonetheless, also data with much higher effective concentrations (10 mg/kg BW/day [69] ) and with similar concentrations of Zanamivir (2.5 mg/kg BW/day [67] ) were published as well. We found that the combination of carrageenan with 3 mg/kg BW/day Zanamivir used for treatment of H7N7 infected mice resulted in significantly enhanced survival of mice in comparison to both mono-therapies (Fig 2) . The significantly enhanced survival compared to the placebo treated group was also found after a delayed treatment start 48 hpi. Furthermore, in the H1N1(09)pdm model the combination of carrageenan with 1 mg/kg BW/day Zanamivir showed statistically significant enhanced survival in comparison to placebo treatment even after a treatment start 72 hpi. This is a remarkable finding since NIs are normally not effective when applied 72 hpi. The finding supports the development of the Zanamivir and carrageenan combination approach. As the intranasal treatment regime is incapable to effectively treat virus infections of the lung, the primary target of such a product is the prophylaxis and therapy of uncomplicated influenza. Since the majority of influenza infections causes uncomplicated illnesses and practically all cases of influenza start with an infection of the nasal cavity or the upper respiratory tract, the therapeutic potential is huge. However, clinical studies are required to elucidate and demonstrate the potential of the proposed combination therapy. Combination of antiviral strategies has led to impressive achievements in the combat against other viral disease like HIV. In particular the problem of antiviral resistance could be addressed with this strategy. In the last decade concerns have been raised about the increased emergence of Oseltamivir resistant influenza viruses. The augmented appearance of viruses carrying the mutation H275Y in the neuraminidase of H1N1(09)pdm viruses that confers resistance to Oseltamivir left Zanamivir as only treatment option for symptomatic patients infected with an Oseltamivir resistant influenza strain [70] . In contrast to Oseltamivir, resistance to Zanamivir is less frequent. To date, Zanamivir resistant influenza has been detected only once, in an immunocompromised patient [71, 72] . However, lessons should be learned from previous anti-influenza interventions which resulted in occurrence of resistance against currently approved drugs [73] . Therefore, concerns are comprehensible that an increased Zanamivir use may also lead to the rapid emergence of resistances [74] . To overcome this threat, a combination of antivirals which inhibits virus replication by distinct mechanisms is a valid strategy. We checked for the possibility of generating double compound escape mutant viruses while passaging viruses in the presence of increasing concentrations of compound combinations. After 10 passages in MDCK cells no resistance to the compound combination for any tested influenza virus could be found (data not shown). However, this finding does not guarantee that emergence of Zanamivir escape mutants can be completely halted. In summary, we demonstrated that the anti-influenza mechanisms of both single compounds complement each other. The combination provides synergistically better protection against a broader spectrum of influenza viruses than the individual compounds. A nasal spray containing carrageenan together with Zanamivir provides an easy to apply treatment of upper respiratory tract infections in patients under suspicion to be influenza infected. Patients would benefit from the fast and efficient treatment of uncomplicated influenza in the upper respiratory tract. Due to the faster influenza virus clearance from the upper respiratory tract and the independent antiviral mechanism of carrageenan and Zanamivir the likelihood to develop escape mutations against Zanamivir will be reduced. Both individual compounds are able to reduce severity and/or duration of the influenza illness and a combination is expected to work similarly. Additionally, due to the broad antiviral effectiveness of carrageenan, patients will receive in parallel a treatment of concomitant viral infections. Therefore, patients will benefit from a decreased probability to develop complications. In consideration of the complications known to accompany an influenza virus illness this combinational therapy meets an urgent medical need. A second scope of this combination is the protection against newly emerging pandemic viruses during the time until identification of the virus followed by manufacturing and distribution of vaccines [43] . Even if, due to new reverse genetic techniques, less time for production of vaccines is needed, it still takes months before large quantities of vaccine are available [75] . During this time the human population should be protected to decelerate viral spread. At the moment the only available opportunities for personal protection are hygiene measures and the use of Tamiflu (brand name of Oseltamivir). Novel protection and treatment options for influenza are desperately needed. Based on our encouraging results in mice we suggest testing a nasal spray containing carrageenan in combination with the neuraminidase inhibitor Zanamivir in clinical trials for prevention or treatment of uncomplicated influenza infections. Supporting Information S1 Fig. Therapeutic efficacy of iota-carrageenan solely or together with kappa-carrageenan in influenza H7N7 lethal infected mice. Mice (n = 20 per group) were lethally intranasally infected without anesthesia on day 0 and accordingly intranasally treated twice per day either with placebo or with iota-carrageenan or with a mixture of iota-and kappa-carrageenan. Treatment started 24 hpi and continued for 5 days. On the y-axis the survival of mice [%] and on the x-axis the time post infection [days] is given. Placebo treated, uninfected control mice showed 100% survival (data not shown). Statistical analyses were conducted using log rank test and are shown beneath the graphs. Values of p<0.05 were considered statistically significant; non-significance (n.s.) was obtained with p-values >0.05. (TIFF)

Do carageenan and Zanamavir together have a greater benefit than either in monotherapy?

A Schiff Base-Derived Copper (II) Complex Is a Potent Inducer of Apoptosis in Colon Cancer Cells by Activating the Intrinsic Pathway https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3967396/ SHA: f1f24521928f5d8565a15a17bd7f79239a3d4116 Authors: Hajrezaie, Maryam; Paydar, Mohammadjavad; Zorofchian Moghadamtousi, Soheil; Hassandarvish, Pouya; Gwaram, Nura Suleiman; Zahedifard, Maryam; Rouhollahi, Elham; Karimian, Hamed; Looi, Chung Yeng; Ali, Hapipah Mohd; Abdul Majid, Nazia; Abdulla, Mahmood Ameen Date: 2014-03-05 DOI: 10.1155/2014/540463 License: cc-by Abstract: Metal-based drugs with extensive clinical applications hold great promise for the development of cancer chemotherapeutic agents. In the last few decades, Schiff bases and their complexes have become well known for their extensive biological potential. In the present study, we examined the antiproliferative effect of a copper (II) complex on HT-29 colon cancer cells. The Cu(BrHAP)(2 ) Schiff base compound demonstrated a potent antiproliferative effect in HT-29 cells, with an IC(50 )value of 2.87 μg/ml after 72 h of treatment. HT-29 cells treated with Cu (II) complexes underwent apoptosis death, as exhibited by a progressive elevation in the proportion of the G(1 ) cell population. At a concentration of 6.25 μg/ml, the Cu(BrHAP)(2 ) compound caused significant elevation in ROS production following perturbation of mitochondrial membrane potential and cytochrome c release, as assessed by the measurement of fluorescence intensity in stained cells. Furthermore, the activation of caspases 3/7 and 9 was part of the Cu (II) complex-induced apoptosis, which confirmed the involvement of mitochondrial-mediated apoptosis. Meanwhile, there was no significant activation of caspase-8. Taken together, these results imply that the Cu(BrHAP)(2 ) compound is a potential candidate for further in vivo and clinical colon cancer studies to develop novel chemotherapeutic agents derived from metal-based agents. Text: Cancer is a debilitating disease that afflicts a substantial portion of the world population in all generations and is a major health problem of global concern [1] . Among the various types of cancer, colorectal cancer is the second and third most prevalent cancer among males and females in the United States, respectively. In spite of all the considerable progress in protective methods and recent improvements in screening techniques and chemotherapy, the 1-year and 5-year relative survival rates for patients suffering from colorectal cancer are 83.2% and 64.3%, respectively [2] . In addition, due to bitter controversy over optimal methods for early detection, full compliance of patients with screening recommendations remains a major hindrance for diagnosis at the early stages of cancer development. Development of resistance to chemotherapy also represents a critical issue for which simultaneous treatment with various classes of therapeutics to reduce the resistance has yielded some success [3] . Moreover, the numerous side effects of chemotherapeutic drugs on cancer patients, including hair loss, diarrhea, bleeding, and immunosuppression, have made the process 2 The Scientific World Journal of treatment more complicated [4] . The highly regulated programmed cell death process of apoptosis is a matter of great interest in oncology and cancer therapy and represents a common molecular pathway for drug resistance and carcinogenesis [5] . Maintenance of a constant cell number in the colonic mucosa is highly regulated through the balance between apoptosis and cell proliferation. The perturbation in this balance leads to an escape from normal cell number homeostasis and is associated with the progression of cancer cells [6, 7] . Thus, suppression of proliferation and elevation of apoptosis in these aberrant cells are suggested to be the essential mechanism for the inhibition of colon cancer. Furthermore, apoptosis and the factors involved in its mechanism of action also present a window that can be exploited for the improvement of potential therapeutic agents with high effectiveness and less adverse side effects [8] . Hence, screening for novel compounds capable of inducing apoptosis in colon cancer cells that can be used alone or in combination with other chemotherapeutic drugs is a significant need and represents a critical challenge in medicinal chemistry. Metal complexes have been extensively utilized in clinics for centuries and have attracted numerous inorganic chemists to analyze them, with the main focus being medical applications [9, 10] . Copper, an essential trace element with an oxidative nature and bioessential activity in human metabolism, does not exist in an ionic form in biological systems. Thus, measurement of copper in the body is evaluated in the form of complexes with organic compounds [11] . Schiff bases are a critical class of compounds in medical chemistry that have demonstrated significant chemotherapeutic and antibacterial application [12, 13] . Schiff base Cu(II) complexes revealed great potential for antiproliferative, antibacterial, and gastroprotective activity [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] . This study evaluated the anticancer potential of a copper (II) complex derived from N,N -dimethyl ethylene diamine and 2-hydroxyacetophenone Schiff base ligand, Cu(BrHAP) 2 . Furthermore, the possible apoptotic mechanism underlying this activity was also examined. Dulbecco's Modified Eagle Medium (DMEM, Life Technologies, Inc., Rockville, MD) containing 10% fetal bovine serum, 100 g/mL streptomycin, and 100 U/mL penicillin G at 37 ∘ C in a humidified atmosphere of 5% CO 2 /95% air. The cells were plated at a fitting density in tissue culture flasks (Corning, USA) according to each experimental scale. Cell viability was measured by a conventional MTT [3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide] reduction assay. After 48 h exposure to six concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 , cells were treated with MTT solution (2 mg/mL) for 2 h. The dark formazan crystals formed in intact cells were dissolved in DMSO, and the absorbance was measured at 570 nm and 650 nm as a background using a microplate reader (Hidex, Turku, Finland). The IC 50 value was determined as the concentration of Cu(BrHAP) 2 required to reduce the absorbance of treated cells to 50% of the DMSO-treated control cells. All samples were prepared in triplicates. Assay. Measurement of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release is a biomarker for determining the cytotoxicity of a compound. Briefly, HT-29 cells were treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 and Triton X-100 (positive control) for 48 h, and the supernatants of the untreated and treated cells were transferred to a new 96-well plate for LDH activity analysis. Next, 100 L of LDH reaction solution was added to each well, the plate was incubated at room temperature for 30 min, and the absorbance was read at 490 nm using a Tecan Infinite 200 Pro (Tecan, Männedorf, Switzerland) microplate reader. The amount of formazan salt and intensity of red color in treated and untreated samples were represented as the LDH activity of cells. The LDH release level in cells treated with Cu(BrHAP) 2 was expressed as a percentage of the positive control. A propidium iodide (PI) and acridine orange (AO) double staining assay were carried out for detection of apoptosis in the treated cells using a fluorescent microscope (Leica attached with Q-Floro software) according to a standard procedure. HT-29 cells (5 × 10 4 cells/mL in a 25 mL culture flask) were plated, treated with Cu(BrHAP) 2 at the IC 50 concentration, and incubated for 24, 48, and 72 h. After harvesting the cells, they were stained with fluorescent dyes and observed under a UV-fluorescent microscope (Olympus BX51) within 30 min. In brief, HT-29 cells (1 × 10 4 cells/well in 96-well plate) were supplemented with Cu(BrHAP) 2 (2 g/mL) or DMSO (negative control) for 24 h. The live cells were then incubated with BrdU and Phospho-Histone H3 dyes for 30 min. After the cells were fixed and stained as described by the manufacturer's instructions, they were visualized and analyzed using the Cellomics ArrayScan HCS reader (Thermo Scientific). The fluorescence intensities of the dyes were measured using a target activation bioapplication module. To confirm the result of the fluorescence cell cycle analysis, HT-29 cells (5 × 10 4 cells/mL) were treated with Cu(BrHAP) 2 for 24, 48, and 72 h for flow cytometry analysis. After incubation, HT-29 cells were spun down at 1800 rpm for 5 min. Next, fixation of a cell population for flow cytometry analysis was carried out to restore integrity. In brief, the cell pellets were fixed by mixing them with 700 L of cold ethanol (90%) and were then kept at 4 ∘ C overnight. Treated HT-29 cells were spun down, and the ethanol was discarded. After washing and suspending the cells in PBS, 25 L of RNase A (10 mg/mL) and 50 L of propidium iodide (PI) (1 mg/mL) were added to the fixed cells for 1 h at 37 ∘ C. The added RNase A limited the ability of PI to bind to only DNA molecules. At the end, the DNA content of the cells was analyzed by a flow cytometer (BD FACSCanto II). The oxygen radical antioxidant capacity (ORAC) assay was carried out based on the protocols described in detail previously [19] . In brief, Cu(BrHAP) 2 at the concentration of 100 g/mL was used for this assay in a total reaction volume of 200 L. The experiment was performed in a black 96-well microplate with 25 L of compound, blank (solvent/PBS), standard (trolox), or positive control (quercetin). The plate was then supplemented with the working fluorescein solution (150 L), followed by a 5 min incubation at 37 ∘ . The total volume of 200 L was made up by adding 25 L of AAPH working solution. Fluorescence intensity was measured at an excitation wavelength of 485 nm and an emission wavelength of 538 nm every 2 min for 2 h. The result was quantified by calculating the differences of area under the fluorescence decay curve (AUC) of samples and blank. The values were Trolox equivalents (TE). In brief, HT-29 cells (1 × 10 4 cells/mL) were seeded in 96-well plates and treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 and DMSO (negative control) for 24 h. After 30 min treatment with dihydroethidium (DHE) dye, cells were fixed and washed with wash buffer as described by the manufacturer's instructions. In the presence of superoxides, DHE dye is oxidized to ethidium. The fluorescence intensity was determined by a fluorescent plate reader at an extension wavelength of 520 nm and an emission wavelength of 620 nm. The critical factors for monitoring the cell health, namely, cell loss, changes in cell permeability, cytochrome release, mitochondrial membrane potential changes, nuclear size, and morphological changes, were studied using a Cellomics Multiparameter Cytotoxicity 3 Kit as described in detail previously [20] . Plates with stained cells were analyzed using the ArrayScan HCS system (Cellomics, PA, USA). Caspases 3/7, -8, and 9 activities were determined using the commercial caspase-Glo 3/7, 8, and 9 assay kit (Promega, Madison, WI). HT-29 cells (1.0 × 10 4 cells/well) were seeded overnight in white-walled 96-well plates and treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 for 24 h. According to the manufacturer's protocol, the treated cells were supplemented with caspase-Glo reagent (100 L) and incubated at room temperature for 30 min. The active caspases from apoptotic cells caused the cleavage of aminoluciferin-labeled synthetic tetrapeptide, leading to the release of substrate for the luciferase enzyme. Caspase activities were analyzed using a Tecan Infinite 200 Pro (Tecan, Männedorf, Switzerland) microplate reader. In brief, HT-29 cells (1.0 × 10 4 cells/well in a 96-well plate) were treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 for 3 h, followed by stimulation with TNF-(1 ng/mL) for 30 min. After discarding the medium, cells were fixed and stained using a Cellomics nucleus factor-B (NF-B) activation kit (Thermo Scientific) according to the manufacturer's instructions. Next, an Array Scan HCS Reader was used for evaluation of the plate. Cytoplasmic and nuclear NF-B intensity ratios were calculated using Cytoplasm to Nucleus Translocation Bioapplication software. The average intensity of 200 cells/well was determined. The ratios for untreated, treated, and TNF-stimulated cells were compared. All the experiments were performed at least three times independently. The results were presented as the mean ± standard deviation (SD) of the number of experiments shown in the legends. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out using the prism statistical package (GraphPad Software, USA). < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Cells of the Colon. Initially, the cytotoxicity of Cu(BrHAP) 2 was tested on HT-29 and CCD 841 cell lines. The IC 50 values of the Schiff base compound were determined based on the result collected from three independent MTT experiments. As indicated in Table 1 , Cu(BrHAP) 2 elicited a significant cytotoxicity and cell inhibitory effect after 24, 48, and 72 h of treatment on HT-29 cell. 2 -Induced LDH Release. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) release in the medium is a marker that shows the loss of membrane integrity, apoptosis, or necrosis. The cytotoxicity of the Cu(BrHAP) 2 compound, as determined by the LDH release assay, was quantified on HT-29 cells treated with various concentrations of the Schiff base compound for 48 h. Cu(BrHAP) 2 induced a significant elevation in LDH release, demonstrating cytotoxicity at the 6.25 and 12.5 g/mL concentrations compared to the control cells ( Figure 2 ). Microscopy and AO/PI Double Staining. Morphological changes in HT-29 cells treated with Cu(BrHAP) 2 compound were observed under a fluorescent microscope at 24, 48, and 72 h. The cells were scored under a fluorescent microscope to analyze viable cells, early apoptosis, and late apoptosis. Early apoptosis, defined as intervening AO within the fragmented DNA, was observed under bright green fluorescence. At the same time, control cells were visualized with a green intact nuclear structure. After 24 and 48 h of treatment with Cu(BrHAP) 2 , moderate apoptosis was observed in the form of blebbing and nuclear chromatin condensation. Furthermore, in the late stage of apoptosis, changes, such as the presence of a reddish-orange color due to binding of PI to denatured DNA, were observed after 72 h of treatment ( Figure 3) . The results showed that the Cu(BrHAP) 2 compound induced morphological features of apoptosis in a time-dependent manner. Figure 4 , demonstrated that there is no cell cycle arrest in the S/M phases. The lack of cell cycle arrest in the S/M phases suggested possible cell cycle arrest in the G 1 /G 2 phases. To determine the exact arrested phase, treated HT-29 cells were analyzed for cell cycle progression using flow cytometry. As expected, there was no significant arrest in the S/M phases. Meanwhile, significant cell cycle arrest in the G 1 phase was observed for HT-29 cells after 24 and 48 h of treatment ( Figure 5 ). Assay. Antioxidant capacity was measured by ORAC assay, which is the only assay that involves the use of peroxyl radical as a prooxidant and quantifies activity via the area under the curve (AUC) technique. In our experiment, quercetin was used as a positive control. The result demonstrated that Cu(BrHAP) 2 exhibited low to moderate antioxidant activity compared to quercetin ( Table 2) . Formation. HT-29 cells were treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 for 24 h and stained with DHE dye to determine the influence of the Schiff base compound on ROS production. The fluorescence intensities of DHE oxidization by ROS were quantified using a fluorescence microplate reader. As depicted in Figure 6 , exposure to the Schiff base compound caused a significant elevation in the ROS levels of treated HT-29 cells at the 6.25 g/mL concentration. To investigate the induction of apoptosis by Cu(BrHAP) 2 , nuclear morphological changes in HT-29 cells were analyzed by detection of nuclear condensation. As shown in Figure 7 , Hoechst 33342 staining demonstrated that nuclear condensation, which is directly related to apoptotic chromatin changes, emerged in some cells after treatment with Cu(BrHAP) 2 . Meanwhile, the permeability of treated cells was also elevated. Mitochondria are the main source for the production of ROS and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and are critical in controlling the death and survival of cells. The reduction in fluorescence intensity depicted in Figure 6 Cu(BrHAP) 2 triggered the translocation of cytochrome from mitochondria into the cytosol during apoptosis in HT-29 cells. Activation. The elevation in ROS production associated with a collapse in MMP may lead to the activation of the caspase cascade. To investigate caspase activation, the bioluminescent intensities representing caspases 3/7, 8, and 9 activities were quantified in HT-29 cells treated with different concentrations of Cu(BrHAP) 2 for 24 h. As shown in Figure 8 , significant elevation in the activity of caspase-3/7 at the 6.25 g/mL concentration and caspase-9 at the 6.25 and 12.5 g/mL concentrations was observed in Cu(BrHAP) 2treated cells, while no significant change in the activity of caspase-8 was detected between treated and untreated HT-29 cells. Thus, the apoptosis induced by the Schiff base compound in HT-29 cells is possibly mediated via the intrinsic pathway, but not the extrinsic pathway. is a transcription factor that has a critical role in cytokine gene expression. NF-B activation and translocation to the nucleus to enable DNA-binding activity and facilitate target gene expression are mediated by inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-(TNF-). The Cu(BrHAP) 2 Schiff base compound did not exhibit any inhibitory effect on translocation of TNF--stimulated NF-B in HT-29 treated cells, and TNF--stimulation led to NF-B translocation from the cytoplasm to the nucleus (Figure 9 ). Carcinogenesis is a multistage process in which unregulated cell proliferation as well as a reduction in apoptosis incidence serves as initial characterizations for its progression [21] . One of the defense procedures in multicellular organisms is the destruction of undesirable cell development, which is defined as programmed cell death. Apoptosis is the most noticed programmed cell death mechanism and is characterized by distinct morphological changes such as membrane permeability, cell shrinkage, disruption of the mitochondrial membrane, and chromatin condensation [22, 23]. The disruption of cellular homeostasis between cell death and cell proliferation leads to cancer incidence [24] , and agents that can induce apoptosis are known to have potential anticancer effects [25, 26] . Apoptosis pathways are effective targets for cancer therapy as well as chemoprevention. Numerous chemopreventive drugs have been determined to regulate key events or molecules in apoptosis-inducing signal transduction pathways [27] . In the present study, the Cu(BrHAP) 2 Schiff base compound was evaluated for its ability to inhibit the growth of HT-29 cells using an MTT assay. HT-29 cells have recently been characterized as a suitable model for colon cancer studies [28] [29] [30] . human colon cancer cells in a time-and dose-dependent manner. Meanwhile, the nontumorigenic colon cell line (CCD 841) showed no cytotoxicity after treatment with the compound. The cytotoxic effect of the Cu(II) compound was also confirmed by measuring the level of LDH release from treated cells. Considerably elevated LDH release showed that the cytotoxicity of the Cu(BrHAP) 2 compound possibly occurred via the loss of membrane integrity, whether through activation of apoptosis or the necrosis pathway [31] . The observation of early apoptosis and late apoptosis by fluorescent microscopy analysis and AO/PI double staining following treatment of HT-29 cells with the compound included some signs of apoptosis, namely, cytoplasmic shrinkage, membrane blebbing, and DNA fragmentation [32, 33] . We found that the number of cells with early apoptosis features was higher at earlier stages of treatment. However, when treatment time increased to 72 h, late apoptosis or necrosis characterizations were dominant among treated HT-29 cells. Concurrent detection of late apoptosis or necrosis is scientifically possible because treated HT-29 cells undergoing apoptosis may have progressed into necrosis due to the prolonged incubation with the Schiff base compound. To elucidate the mechanisms underlying the observed antiproliferative effect of the Cu(II) complex on cancer cells, cell cycle distribution was analyzed using BrdU and Phospho-Histone H3 staining along with flow cytometry [34] [35] [36] . BrdU dye can attach to the synthesized DNA of replicating cells during the S phase of the cell cycle, while Phospho-Histone H3 dye stains cells in different mitotic stages. The cell cycle results from the BrdU and Phospho-Histone H3 double staining assay indicated that there were no significant changes in the number of cells in the S/M phases after the exposure of HT-29 cells to the Schiff base compound. This result suggests the possibility that the cells were arrested in the G 1 or G 2 phase of the cell cycle. Thus, the flow cytometry analysis of the cell cycle was performed to determine the exact arrested phase, and the results demonstrated significant cell cycle arrest at G 1 after 24 and 48 h of treatment, suggesting proliferative suppression via induction of apoptosis [37, 38] . Perturbation of mitochondrial membrane potential is one of the earliest intracellular events that occur following the induction of apoptosis [39] . As the main source of cellular ROS and adenosine triphosphate (ATP), mitochondria are the key regulators of mechanisms controlling the survival or death of cells. After confirming that the Cu(BrHAP) 2 Schiff base compound did not have significant antioxidant capacity in HT-29 cancer cells using the ORAC assay, the induction of ROS production in treated cells was analyzed. According to our study, after exposing the Cu(II) compound to HT-29 cells and analyzing the levels of ROS, it was demonstrated that the level of ROS in treated HT-29 cells was significantly elevated at a compound concentration of 6.25 g/mL. In metal-induced apoptosis, the mitochondria have the crucial role in mediating apoptosis through metal-induced ROS [40] . The intrinsic or mitochondrial-dependent signaling pathway involves different factors of nonreceptor-mediated stimuli that induce intracellular signals. These signals, mainly through the p53 protein, act on the mitochondrialinitiated events. Excessive ROS production is a negative signal that can result in the failure of suppression of antiapoptotic factors, thereby triggering apoptosis. Therefore, we used mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) fluorescent probes to examine the effect of elevated ROS production on the function of mitochondria in treated HT-29 cells. As shown in Figure 7 , changes in MMP after treatment with the Cu(BrHAP) 2 Schiff base compound leading to the membrane depolarization of the mitochondria were demonstrated by Rhodamine 123 release to the cytoplasm from the mitochondria matrix. The result implies that the induction of apoptosis by Cu(II) Schiff base complexes may be associated with the mitochondrial pathway [26, 41, 42] . One of the important signals to initiate the procedure of apoptosis is cytosolic cytochrome . The release of cytochrome into the cytosol and reduction of its levels in the mitochondria have been shown to occur as a result of changes in MMP [30] . As the result illustrated, the synthetic Schiff base compound also led to an increase in the level of cytochrome in the cytosol compared to the control. The excessive production of ROS from mitochondria and the collapse of MMP may activate the downstream caspase molecules and consequently lead to apoptotic cell death. After the binding of cytochrome to apoptotic activating factor-1, caspase-9 is activated via apoptosome formation, which leads to active caspase-3/7, the most effective caspase with many cellular targets [43] . In the extrinsic pathway, apoptosis is mediated by death receptors. As an example, FAS ligand interacts with the FAS receptor, leading to the activation of caspase-8 [44] . Caspase-8 activation cleaves and activates downstream executioner caspases such as caspase-3/7 [45, 46] . In our study, the Cu(BrHAP) 2 schiff base compound induced significant elevation in the caspases 3/7 and 9 activities compared to the control. Meanwhile, there was no activation of caspase-8, suggesting that the apoptosis induced in HT-29 cells was mediated via the intrinsic mitochondrial pathway but not the extrinsic, death receptor-linked caspase-8 pathway. The supporting evidence of LDH release, ROS production, MMP suppression, elevation in the level of cytochrome , and activation of caspases 3/7 and 9 demonstrated the promising anticancer activity of the Cu(BrHAP) 2 Schiff base compound against the HT-29 colon cancer cell line via the intrinsic mitochondrial pathway.

What morphological cell changes are most associated with apoptosis?

Deep sequencing of primary human lung epithelial cells challenged with H5N1 influenza virus reveals a proviral role for CEACAM1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6195505/ SHA: ef58c6e981a08c85d2c0efb80e5b32b075f660b4 Authors: Ye, Siying; Cowled, Christopher J.; Yap, Cheng-Hon; Stambas, John Date: 2018-10-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-33605-6 License: cc-by Abstract: Current prophylactic and therapeutic strategies targeting human influenza viruses include vaccines and antivirals. Given variable rates of vaccine efficacy and antiviral resistance, alternative strategies are urgently required to improve disease outcomes. Here we describe the use of HiSeq deep sequencing to analyze host gene expression in primary human alveolar epithelial type II cells infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus. At 24 hours post-infection, 623 host genes were significantly upregulated, including the cell adhesion molecule CEACAM1. H5N1 virus infection stimulated significantly higher CEACAM1 protein expression when compared to influenza A PR8 (H1N1) virus, suggesting a key role for CEACAM1 in influenza virus pathogenicity. Furthermore, silencing of endogenous CEACAM1 resulted in reduced levels of proinflammatory cytokine/chemokine production, as well as reduced levels of virus replication following H5N1 infection. Our study provides evidence for the involvement of CEACAM1 in a clinically relevant model of H5N1 infection and may assist in the development of host-oriented antiviral strategies. Text: Influenza viruses cause acute and highly contagious seasonal respiratory disease in all age groups. Between 3-5 million cases of severe influenza-related illness and over 250 000 deaths are reported every year. In addition to constant seasonal outbreaks, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) strains, such as H5N1, remain an ongoing pandemic threat with recent WHO figures showing 454 confirmed laboratory infections and a mortality rate of 53%. It is important to note that humans have very little pre-existing immunity towards avian influenza virus strains. Moreover, there is no commercially available human H5N1 vaccine. Given the potential for H5N1 viruses to trigger a pandemic 1,2 , there is an urgent need to develop novel therapeutic interventions to combat known deficiencies in our ability to control outbreaks. Current seasonal influenza virus prophylactic and therapeutic strategies involve the use of vaccination and antivirals. Vaccine efficacy is highly variable as evidenced by a particularly severe 2017/18 epidemic, and frequent re-formulation of the vaccine is required to combat ongoing mutations in the influenza virus genome. In addition, antiviral resistance has been reported for many circulating strains, including the avian influenza H7N9 virus that emerged in 2013 3, 4 . Influenza A viruses have also been shown to target and hijack multiple host cellular pathways to promote survival and replication 5, 6 . As such, there is increasing evidence to suggest that targeting host pathways will influence virus replication, inflammation, immunity and pathology 5, 7 . Alternative intervention strategies based on modulation of the host response could be used to supplement the current prophylactic and therapeutic protocols. While the impact of influenza virus infection has been relatively well studied in animal models 8, 9 , human cellular responses are poorly defined due to the lack of available human autopsy material, especially from HPAI virus-infected patients. In the present study, we characterized influenza virus infection of primary human alveolar epithelial type II (ATII) cells isolated from normal human lung tissue donated by patients undergoing lung resection. ATII cells are a physiologically relevant infection model as they are a main target for influenza A viruses when entering the respiratory tract 10 . Human host gene expression following HPAI H5N1 virus (A/Chicken/ Vietnam/0008/04) infection of primary ATII cells was analyzed using Illumina HiSeq deep sequencing. In order to gain a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying modulation of host immunity in an anti-inflammatory environment, we also analyzed changes in gene expression following HPAI H5N1 infection in the presence of the reactive oxygen species (ROS) inhibitor, apocynin, a compound known to interfere with NADPH oxidase subunit assembly 5, 6 . The HiSeq analysis described herein has focused on differentially regulated genes following H5N1 infection. Several criteria were considered when choosing a "hit" for further study. These included: (1) Novelty; has this gene been studied before in the context of influenza virus infection/pathogenesis? (2) Immunoregulation; does this gene have a regulatory role in host immune responses so that it has the potential to be manipulated to improve immunity? (3) Therapeutic reagents; are there any existing commercially available therapeutic reagents, such as specific inhibitors or inhibitory antibodies that can be utilized for in vitro and in vivo study in order to optimize therapeutic strategies? (4) Animal models; is there a knock-out mouse model available for in vivo influenza infection studies? Based on these criteria, carcinoembryonic-antigen (CEA)-related cell adhesion molecule 1 (CEACAM1) was chosen as a key gene of interest. CEACAM1 (also known as BGP or CD66) is expressed on epithelial and endothelial cells 11 , as well as B cells, T cells, neutrophils, NK cells, macrophages and dendritic cells (DCs) [12] [13] [14] . Human CEACAM1 has been shown to act as a receptor for several human bacterial and fungal pathogens, including Haemophilus influenza, Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhi and Candida albicans, but has not as yet been implicated in virus entry [15] [16] [17] . There is however emerging evidence to suggest that CEACAM1 is involved in host immunity as enhanced expression in lymphocytes was detected in pregnant women infected with cytomegalovirus 18 and in cervical tissue isolated from patients with papillomavirus infection 19 . Eleven CEACAM1 splice variants have been reported in humans 20 . CEACAM1 isoforms (Uniprot P13688-1 to -11) can differ in the number of immunoglobulin-like domains present, in the presence or absence of a transmembrane domain and/or the length of their cytoplasmic tail (i.e. L, long or S, short). The full-length human CEACAM1 protein (CEACAM1-4L) consists of four extracellular domains (one extracellular immunoglobulin variable-region-like (IgV-like) domain and three immunoglobulin constant region 2-like (IgC2-like) domains), a transmembrane domain, and a long (L) cytoplasmic tail. The long cytoplasmic tail contains two immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motifs (ITIMs) that are absent in the short form 20 . The most common isoforms expressed by human immune cells are CEACAM1-4L and CEACAM1-3L 21 . CEACAM1 interacts homophilically with itself 22 or heterophilically with CEACAM5 (a related CEACAM family member) 23 . The dimeric state allows recruitment of signaling molecules such as SRC-family kinases, including the tyrosine phosphatase SRC homology 2 (SH2)-domain containing protein tyrosine phosphatase 1 (SHP1) and SHP2 members to phosphorylate ITIMs 24 . As such, the presence or absence of ITIMs in CEACAM1 isoforms influences signaling properties and downstream cellular function. CEACAM1 homophilic or heterophilic interactions and ITIM phosphorylation are critical for many biological processes, including regulation of lymphocyte function, immunosurveillance, cell growth and differentiation 25, 26 and neutrophil activation and adhesion to target cells during inflammatory responses 27 . It should be noted that CEACAM1 expression has been modulated in vivo using an anti-CEACAM1 antibody (MRG1) to inhibit CEACAM1-positive melanoma xenograft growth in SCID/NOD mice 28 . MRG1 blocked CEACAM1 homophilic interactions that inhibit T cell effector function, enhancing the killing of CEACAM1+ melanoma cells by T cells 28 . This highlights a potential intervention pathway that can be exploited in other disease processes, including virus infection. In addition, Ceacam1-knockout mice are available for further in vivo infection studies. Our results show that CEACAM1 mRNA and protein expression levels were highly elevated following HPAI H5N1 infection. Furthermore, small interfering RNA (siRNA)-mediated inhibition of CEACAM1 reduced inflammatory cytokine and chemokine production, and more importantly, inhibited H5N1 virus replication in primary human ATII cells and in the continuous human type II respiratory epithelial A549 cell line. Taken together, these observations suggest that CEACAM1 is an attractive candidate for modulating influenza-specific immunity. In summary, our study has identified a novel target that may influence HPAI H5N1 immunity and serves to highlight the importance of manipulating host responses as a way of improving disease outcomes in the context of virus infection. Three experimental groups were included in the HiSeq analysis of H5N1 infection in the presence or absence of the ROS inhibitor, apocynin: (i) uninfected cells treated with 1% DMSO (vehicle control) (ND), (ii) H5N1-infected cells treated with 1% DMSO (HD) and (iii) H5N1-infected cells treated with 1 mM apocynin dissolved in DMSO (HA). These three groups were assessed using pairwise comparisons: ND vs. HD, ND vs. HA, and HD vs. HA. H5N1 infection and apocynin treatment induce differential expression of host genes. ATII cells isolated from human patients 29, 30 were infected with H5N1 on the apical side at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 2 for 24 hours and RNA extracted. HiSeq was performed on samples and reads mapped to the human genome where they were then assembled into transcriptomes for differential expression analysis. A total of 13,649 genes were identified with FPKM (fragments per kilobase of exon per million fragments mapped) > 1 in at least one of the three experimental groups. A total of 623 genes were significantly upregulated and 239 genes were significantly downregulated (q value < 0.05, ≥2-fold change) following H5N1 infection (ND vs. HD) ( Fig. 1A ; Table S1 ). HPAI H5N1 infection of ATII cells activated an antiviral state as evidenced by the upregulation of numerous interferon-induced genes, genes associated with pathogen defense, cell proliferation, apoptosis, and metabolism (Table 1; Table S2 ). In addition, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway mapping showed that many of the upregulated genes in the HD group were mapped to TNF signaling (hsa04668), Toll-like receptor signaling (hsa04620), cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction (hsa04060) and RIG-I-like receptor signaling (hsa04622) ( In the H5N1-infected and apocynin-treated (HA) group, a large number of genes were also significantly upregulated (509 genes) or downregulated (782 genes) ( Fig. 1B ; Table S1 ) relative to the ND control group. Whilst a subset of genes was differentially expressed in both the HD and HA groups, either being upregulated (247 genes, Fig. 1D ) or downregulated (146 genes, Fig. 1E ), a majority of genes did not in fact overlap between the HD and HA groups (Fig. 1D , E). This suggests that apocynin treatment can affect gene expression independent of H5N1 infection. Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment analysis of genes upregulated by apocynin showed the involvement of the type I interferon signaling pathway (GO:0060337), the defense response to virus (GO:0009615), negative regulation of viral processes (GO:48525) and the response to stress (GO:0006950) ( Table S2 , "ND vs. HA Up"). Genes downregulated by apocynin include those that are involved in cell adhesion (GO:0007155), regulation of cell migration (GO:0030334), regulation of cell proliferation (GO:0042127), signal transduction (GO:0007165) and oxidation-reduction processes (GO:0055114) ( Table S2 , "ND vs. HA Down"). A total of 623 genes were upregulated following H5N1 infection ("ND vs. HD Up", Fig. 1F ). By overlapping the two lists of genes from "ND vs. HD Up" and "HD vs. HA Down", 245 genes were shown to be downregulated in the presence of apocynin (Fig. 1F ). By overlapping three lists of genes from "ND vs. HD Up", "HD vs. HA Down" and "ND vs. HA Up", 55 genes out of the 245 genes (190 plus 55 genes) were present in all three lists (Fig. 1G) , indicating that these 55 genes were significantly inhibited by apocynin but to a level that was still significantly higher than that in uninfected cells. The 55 genes include those involved in influenza A immunity (hsa05164; DDX58, IFIH1, IFNB1, MYD88, PML, STAT2), Jak-STAT signaling (hsa04630; IFNB1, IL15RA, IL22RA1, STAT2), RIG-I-like receptor signaling (hsa04622; DDX58, IFIH1, IFNB1) and Antigen processing and presentation (hsa04612; TAP2, TAP1, HLA-DOB) (Tables S3 and S4) . Therefore, critical immune responses induced following H5N1 infection were not dampened following apocynin treatment. The remaining 190 of 245 genes were not present in the "ND vs. HA Up" list, suggesting that those genes were significantly inhibited by apocynin to a level that was similar to uninfected control cells (Fig. 1G ). The 190 genes include those involved in TNF signaling (hsa04668; CASP10, CCL2, CCL5, CFLAR, CXCL5, END1, IL6, TRAF1, VEGFC), cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction (hsa04060; VEGFC, IL6, CCL2, CXCL5, CXCL16, IL2RG, CD40, CCL5, CCL7, IL1A), NF-kappa B signaling pathway (hsa04064: TRAF1, CFLAR, CARD11, TNFSF13B, TICAM1, CD40) and PI3K-Akt signaling (hsa04151; CCND1, GNB4, IL2RG, IL6, ITGA2, JAK2, LAMA1, MYC, IPK3AP1, TLR2, VEGFC) (Tables S3 and S4 ). This is consistent with the role of apocynin in reducing inflammation 31 . By overlapping the three lists of genes from "ND vs. HD Up", "HD vs. HA Down" and "ND vs. HA Down", 11 genes were found in all three comparisons (Fig. 1H ). This suggests that these 11 genes are upregulated following H5N1 infection and are significantly reduced by apocynin treatment to a level lower than that observed in uninfected control cells (Fig. 1H ). Among these were inflammatory cytokines/chemokines genes, including CXCL5, IL1A, AXL (a member of the TAM receptor family of receptor tyrosine kinases) and TMEM173/STING (Stimulator of IFN Genes) (Table S4) . Our previous study demonstrated that H5N1 infection of A549 cells in the presence of apocynin enhanced expression of negative regulators of cytokine signaling (SOCS), SOCS1 and SOCS3 6 . This, in turn, resulted in a reduction of H5N1-stimulated cytokine and chemokine production (IL6, IFNB1, CXCL10 and CCL5 in A549 cells), which was not attributed to lower virus replication as virus titers were not affected by apocynin treatment 6 . We performed a qRT-PCR analysis on the same RNA samples submitted for HiSeq analysis to validate HiSeq results. IL6 ( Fig. 2A) , IFNB1 (Fig. 2B) , CXCL10 (Fig. 2C ), and CCL5 ( Fig. 2D ) gene expression was significantly elevated in ATII cells following infection and was reduced by the addition of apocynin (except for IFNB1). Consistent with previous findings in A549 cells 6 , H5N1 infection alone induced the expression of SOCS1 as shown by HiSeq and qRT-PCR analysis (Fig. 2E ). Apocynin treatment further increased SOCS1 mRNA expression (Fig. 2E ). Although HiSeq analysis did not detect a statistically significant increase of SOCS1 following apocynin treatment, the Log2 fold-changes in SOCS1 gene expression were similar between the HD and HA groups (4.8-fold vs 4.0-fold) (Fig. 2E ). HiSeq analysis of SOCS3 transcription showed significant increase following H5N1 infection and apocynin treatment (Fig. 2F ). qRT-PCR analysis showed that although SOCS3 mRNA was only slightly increased following H5N1 infection, it was further significantly upregulated in the presence Table 2 . Representatives of over-represented KEGG pathways with a maximum P-value of 0.05 and the number of genes contributing to each pathway that is significantly upregulated following H5N1 infection ("ND vs. HD Up"). The full list of KEGG pathways is presented in Table S3 . of apocynin (Fig. 2F) . Therefore, apocynin also contributes to the reduction of H5N1-stimulated cytokine and chemokine production in ATII cells. Apocynin, a compound that inhibits production of ROS, has been shown to influence influenza-specific responses in vitro 6 and in vivo 5 . Although virus titers are not affected by apocynin treatment in vitro 6 , some anti-viral activity is observed in vivo when mice have been infected with a low pathogenic A/HongKong/X31 H3N2 virus 6 . HiSeq analysis of HPAI H5N1 virus gene transcription showed that although there was a trend for increased influenza virus gene expression following apocynin treatment, only influenza non-structural (NS) gene expression was significantly increased (Fig. 2G) . The reduced cytokine and chemokine production in H5N1-infected ATII cells ( Fig. 2A-F) is unlikely to be associated with lower virus replication. GO enrichment analysis was performed on genes that were significantly upregulated following HPAI H5N1 infection in ATII cells in the presence or absence of apocynin to identify over-presented GO terms. Many of the H5N1-upregulated genes were broadly involved in defense response (GO:0006952), response to external biotic stimulus (GO:0043207), immune system processes (GO:0002376), cytokine-mediated signaling pathway (GO:0019221) and type I interferon signaling pathway (GO:0060337) ( Table 1; Table S2 ). In addition, many of the H5N1-upregulated genes mapped to metabolic pathways (hsa01100), cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction (hsa04060), Influenza A (hsa05164), TNF signaling (hsa04668) or Jak-STAT signaling (hsa04630) (Table S3) . However, not all the H5N1-upregulated genes in these pathways were inhibited by apocynin treatment as mentioned above ( Fig. 1F ; Table S3 ). . Fold-changes following qRT-PCR analysis were calculated using 2 −ΔΔCt method (right Y axis) normalized to β-actin and compared with the ND group. Data from HiSeq was calculated as Log2 fold-change (left Y axis) compared with the ND group. IFNB1 transcription was not detected in ND, therefore HiSeq IFNB1 data from HD and HA groups was expressed as FPKM. *p < 0.05 and **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001 compared with ND; # p < 0.05, ## p < 0.01, compared with HD. (G) Hiseq analysis of H5N1 influenza virus gene expression profiles with or without apocynin treatment in primary human ATII cells. # p < 0.05, compared with HD. Upregulation of the cell adhesion molecule CEACAM1 in H5N1-infected ATII cells. The cell adhesion molecule CEACAM1 has been shown to be critical for the regulation of immune responses during infection, inflammation and cancer 20 . The CEACAM1 transcript was significantly upregulated following H5N1 infection (Fig. 3A) . In contrast, a related member of the CEACAM family, CEACAM5, was not affected by H5N1 infection (Fig. 3B) . It is also worth noting that more reads were obtained for CEACAM5 (>1000 FPKM) (Fig. 3B ) than CEACAM1 (~7 FPKM) (Fig. 3A) in uninfected ATII cells, which is consistent with their normal expression patterns in human lung tissue 32 . Therefore, although CEACAM1 forms heterodimers with CEACAM5 23 , the higher basal expression of CEACAM5 in ATII cells may explain why its expression was not enhanced by H5N1 infection. Endogenous CEACAM1 protein expression was also analyzed in uninfected or influenza virus-infected A549 (Fig. 3C ) and ATII cells (Fig. 3D ). CEACAM1 protein expression was slightly, but not significantly, increased in A549 cells infected with A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 H1N1 (PR8) virus for 24 or 48 hours when compared to uninfected cells (Fig. 3C ). No significant difference in CEACAM1 protein levels were observed at various MOIs (2, 5 or 10) or between the 24 and 48 hpi timepoints (Fig. 3C) . After examing CEACAM1 protein expression following infection with PR8 virus in A549 cells, CEACAM1 protein expression was then examined in primary human ATII cells infected with HPAI H5N1 and compared to PR8 virus infection (Fig. 3D) . ATII cells were infected with PR8 virus at a MOI of 2, a dose that induced upregulation of cytokines and influenza Matrix (M) gene analyzed by qRT-PCR (data not shown). Lower MOIs of 0.5, 1 and 2 of HPAI H5N1 were tested due to the strong cytopathogenic effect H5N1 causes at higher MOIs. Endogenous CEACAM1 protein levels were significantly and similarly elevated in H5N1-infected ATII cells at the three MOIs tested. CEACAM1 protein expression in ATII cells infected with H5N1 at MOIs of 0.5 were higher at 48 hpi than those observed at 24 hpi (Fig. 3D ). HPAI H5N1 virus infection at MOIs of 0.5, 1 and 2 stimulated higher endogenous levels of CEACAM1 protein expression when compared to PR8 virus infection at a MOI of 2 at the corresponding time point (a maximum ~9-fold increase induced by H5N1 at MOIs of 0.5 and 1 at 48 hpi when compared to PR8 at MOI of 2), suggesting a possible role for CEACAM1 in influenza virus pathogenicity (Fig. 3D ). In order to understand the role of CEACAM1 in influenza pathogenesis, A549 and ATII cells were transfected with siCEACAM1 to knockdown endogenous CEACAM1 protein expression. ATII and A549 cells were transfected with siCEACAM1 or siNeg negative control. The expression of four main CEACAM1 variants, CEACAM1-4L, -4S, -3L and -3S, and CEACAM1 protein were analyzed using SYBR Green qRT-PCR and Western blotting, respectively. SYBR Green qRT-PCR analysis showed that ATII cells transfected with 15 pmol of siCEACAM1 significantly reduced the expression of CEACAM1-4L and -4S when compared to siNeg control, while the expression of CEACAM1-3L and -3S was not altered (Fig. 4A ). CEACAM1 protein expression was reduced by approximately 50% in both ATII and A549 cells following siCEACAM1 transfection when compared with siNeg-transfected cells (Fig. 4B) . Increasing doses of siCEACAM1 (10, 15 and 20 pmol) did not further downregulate CEACAM1 protein expression in A549 cells (Fig. 4B ). As such, 15 pmol of siCEACAM1 was chosen for subsequent knockdown studies in both ATII and A549 cells. It is important to note that the anti-CEACAM1 antibody only detects L isoforms based on epitope information provided by Abcam. Therefore, observed reductions in CEACAM1 protein expression can be attributed mainly to the abolishment of CEACAM1-4L. The functional consequences of CEACAM1 knockdown were then examined in ATII and A549 cells following H5N1 infection. IL6, IFNB1, CXCL10, CCL5 and TNF production was analyzed in H5N1-infected ATII and A549 cells using qRT-PCR. ATII (Fig. 5A ) and A549 cells (Fig. 5B) transfected with siCEACAM1 showed significantly lower expression of IL6, CXCL10 and CCL5 when compared with siNeg-transfected cells. However, the expression of the anti-viral cytokine, IFNB1, was not affected in both cells types. In addition, TNF expression, which can be induced by type I IFNs 33 , was significantly lower in siCEACAM1-transfected A549 cells (Fig. 5B) , but was not affected in siCEACAM1-transfected ATII cells (Fig. 5A) . Hypercytokinemia or "cytokine storm" in H5N1 and H7N9 virus-infected patients is thought to contribute to inflammatory tissue damage 34, 35 . Downregulation of CEACAM1 in the context of severe viral infection may reduce inflammation caused by H5N1 infection without dampening the antiviral response. Furthermore, virus replication was significantly reduced by 5.2-fold in ATII (Figs. 5C) and 4.8-fold in A549 cells (Fig. 5D ) transfected with siCEACAM1 when compared with siNeg-transfected cells. Virus titers in siNeg-transfected control cells were not significantly different from those observed in mock-transfected control cells (Fig. 5C,D) . Influenza viruses utilize host cellular machinery to manipulate normal cell processes in order to promote replication and evade host immune responses. Studies in the field are increasingly focused on understanding and modifying key host factors in order to ameliorate disease. Examples include modulation of ROS to reduce inflammation 5 and inhibition of NFκB and mitogenic Raf/MEK/ERK kinase cascade activation to suppress viral replication 36, 37 . These host targeting strategies will offer an alternative to current interventions that are focused on targeting the virus. In the present study, we analyzed human host gene expression profiles following HPAI H5N1 infection and treatment with the antioxidant, apocynin. As expected, genes that were significantly upregulated following H5N1 infection were involved in biological processes, including cytokine signaling, immunity and apoptosis. In addition, H5N1-upregulated genes were also involved in regulation of protein phosphorylation, cellular metabolism and cell proliferation, which are thought to be exploited by viruses for replication 38 . Apocynin treatment had both anti-viral (Tables S2-S4) 5 and pro-viral impact (Fig. 2G) , which is not surprising as ROS are potent microbicidal agents, as well as important immune signaling molecules at different concentrations 39 . In our hands, apocynin treatment reduced H5N1-induced inflammation, but also impacted the cellular defense response, cytokine production and cytokine-mediated signaling. Importantly, critical antiviral responses were not compromised, i.e. expression of pattern recognition receptors (e.g. DDX58 (RIG-I), TLRs, IFIH1 (MDA5)) was not downregulated (Table S1 ). Given the significant interference of influenza viruses on host immunity, we focused our attention on key regulators of the immune response. Through HiSeq analysis, we identified the cell adhesion molecule CEACAM1 as a critical regulator of immunity. Knockdown of endogenous CEACAM1 inhibited H5N1 virus replication and reduced H5N1-stimulated inflammatory cytokine/chemokine production. H5N1 infection resulted in significant upregulation of a number of inflammatory cytokines/chemokines genes, including AXL and STING, which were significantly reduced by apocynin treatment to a level lower than that observed in uninfected cells (Table S4) . It has been previously demonstrated that anti-AXL antibody treatment of PR8-infected mice significantly reduced lung inflammation and virus titers 40 . STING has been shown to be important for promoting anti-viral responses, as STING-knockout THP-1 cells produce less type I IFN following influenza A virus infection 41 . Reduction of STING gene expression or other anti-viral factors (e.g. IFNB1, MX1, ISG15; Table S1 ) by apocynin, may in part, explain the slight increase in influenza gene transcription following apocynin treatment (Fig. 2G) . These results also suggest that apocynin treatment may reduce H5N1-induced inflammation and apoptosis. Indeed, the anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects of apocynin have been shown previously in a number of disease models, including diabetes mellitus 42 , myocardial infarction 43 , neuroinflammation 44 and influenza virus infection 6 . Recognition of intracellular viral RNA by pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) triggers the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines/chemokines that recruit innate immune cells, such as neutrophils and NK cells, to the site of infection to assist in viral clearance 45 . Neutrophils exert their cytotoxic function by first attaching to influenza-infected epithelial cells via adhesion molecules, such as CEACAM1 46 . Moreover, studies have indicated that influenza virus infection promotes neutrophil apoptosis 47 , delaying virus elimination 48 . Phosphorylation of CEACAM1 ITIM motifs and activation of caspase-3 is critical for mediating anti-apoptotic events and for promoting survival of neutrophils 27 . This suggests that CEACAM1-mediated anti-apoptotic events may be important for the resolution of influenza virus infection in vivo, which can be further investigated through infection studies with Ceacam1-knockout mice. NK cells play a critical role in innate defense against influenza viruses by recognizing and killing infected cells. Influenza viruses, however, employ several strategies to escape NK effector functions, including modification of influenza hemagglutinin (HA) glycosylation to avoid NK activating receptor binding 49 . Homo-or heterophilic CEACAM1 interactions have been shown to inhibit NK-killing 25, 26 , and are thought to contribute to tumor cell immune evasion 50 . Given these findings, one could suggest the possibility that upregulation of CEACAM1 (to inhibit NK activity) may be a novel and uncharacterized immune evasion strategy employed by influenza viruses. Our laboratory is now investigating the role of CEACAM1 in NK cell function. Small-molecule inhibitors of protein kinases or protein phosphatases (e.g. inhibitors for Src, JAK, SHP2) have been developed as therapies for cancer, inflammation, immune and metabolic diseases 51 . Modulation of CEACAM1 phosphorylation, dimerization and the downstream function with small-molecule inhibitors may assist in dissecting the contribution of CEACAM1 to NK cell activity. The molecular mechanism of CEACAM1 action following infection has also been explored in A549 cells using PR8 virus 52 . Vitenshtein et al. demonstrated that CEACAM1 was upregulated following recognition of viral RNA by RIG-I, and that this upregulation was interferon regulatory factor 3 (IRF3)-dependent. In addition, phosphorylation of CEACAM1 by SHP2 inhibited viral replication by reducing phosphorylation of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) to suppress global cellular protein production. In the present study, we used a more physiologically relevant infection model, primary human ATII cells, to study the role of Further studies will be required to investigate/confirm the molecular mechanisms of CEACAM1 upregulation following influenza virus infection, especially in vivo. As upregulation of CEACAM1 has been observed in other virus infections, such as cytomegalovirus 18 and papillomavirus 19 , it will be important to determine whether a common mechanism of action can be attributed to CEACAM1 in order to determine its functional significance. If this can be established, CEACAM1 could be used as a target for the development of a pan-antiviral agent. In summary, molecules on the cell surface such as CEACAM1 are particularly attractive candidates for therapeutic development, as drugs do not need to cross the cell membrane in order to be effective. Targeting of host-encoded genes in combination with current antivirals and vaccines may be a way of reducing morbidity and mortality associated with influenza virus infection. Our study clearly demonstrates that increased CEACAM1 expression is observed in primary human ATII cells infected with HPAI H5N1 influenza virus. Importantly, knockdown of CEACAM1 expression resulted in a reduction in influenza virus replication and suggests targeting of this molecule may assist in improving disease outcomes. Isolation and culture of primary human ATII cells. Human non-tumor lung tissue samples were donated by anonymous patients undergoing lung resection at University Hospital, Geelong, Australia. The research protocols and human ethics were approved by the Human Ethics Committees of Deakin University, Barwon Health and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Informed consent was obtained from all tissue donors. All research was performed in accordance with the guidelines stated in the National Statement on Ethical Conduct in Human Research (2007) . The sampling of normal lung tissue was confirmed by the Victorian Cancer Biobank, Australia. Lung specimens were preserved in Hartmann's solution (Baxter) for 4-8 hours or O/N at 4 °C to maintain cellular integrity and viability before cells are isolated. Human alveolar epithelial type II (ATII) cells were isolated and cultured using a previously described method 30, 53 with minor modifications. Briefly, lung tissue with visible bronchi was removed and perfused with abundant PBS and submerged in 0.5% Trypsin-EDTA (Gibco) twice for 15 min at 37 °C. The partially digested tissue was sliced into sections and further digested in Hank's Balanced Salt Solution (HBSS) containing elastase (12.9 units/mL; Roche Diagnostics) and DNase I (0.5 mg/mL; Roche Diagnostics) for 60 min at 37 °C. Single cell suspensions were obtained by filtration through a 40 μm cell strainer and cells (including macrophages and fibroblasts) were allowed to attach to tissue-culture treated Petri dishes in a 1:1 mixture of DMEM/F12 medium (Gibco) and small airway growth medium (SAGM) medium (Lonza) containing 5% fetal calf serum (FCS) and 0.5 mg/mL DNase I for 2 hours at 37 °C. Non-adherent cells, including ATII cells, were collected and subjected to centrifugation at 300 g for 20 min on a discontinuous Percoll density gradient (1.089 and 1.040 g/mL). Purified ATII cells from the interface of two density gradients was collected, washed in HBSS, and re-suspended in SAGM medium supplemented with 1% charcoal-filtered FCS (Gibco) and 100 units/mL penicillin and 100 µg/mL streptomycin (Gibco). ATII cells were plated on polyester Transwell inserts (0.4 μm pore; Corning) coated with type IV human placenta collagen (0.05 mg/mL; Sigma) at 300,000 cells/cm 2 and cultured under liquid-covered conditions in a humidified incubator (5% CO 2 , 37 °C). Growth medium was changed every 48 hours. These culture conditions suppressed fibroblasts expansion within the freshly isolated ATII cells and encouraged ATII cells to form confluent monolayers with a typical large and somewhat square morphology 54 Cell culture and media. A549 carcinomic human alveolar basal epithelial type II-like cells and Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells were provided by the tissue culture facility of Australian Animal Health Laboratory (AAHL), CSIRO. A549 and MDCK cells were maintained in Ham's F12K medium (GIBCO) and RPMI-1640 medium (Invitrogen), respectively, supplemented with 10% FCS, 100 U/mL penicillin and 100 µg/mL streptomycin (GIBCO) and maintained at 37 °C, 5% CO 2 . Virus and viral infection. HPAI A/chicken/Vietnam/0008/2004 H5N1 (H5N1) was obtained from AAHL, CSIRO. Viral stocks of A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 H1N1 (PR8) were obtained from the University of Melbourne. Virus stocks were prepared using standard inoculation of 10-day-old embryonated eggs. A single stock of virus was prepared for use in all assays. All H5N1 experiments were performed within biosafety level 3 laboratories (BSL3) at AAHL, CSIRO. Cells were infected with influenza A viruses as previously described 6, 29 . Briefly, culture media was removed and cells were washed with warm PBS three times followed by inoculation with virus for 1 hour. Virus was then removed and cells were washed with warm PBS three times, and incubated in the appropriate fresh serum-free culture media containing 0.3% BSA at 37 °C. Uninfected and infected cells were processed identically. For HiSeq analysis, ATII cells from three donors were infected on the apical side with H5N1 at a MOI of 2 for 24 hours in serum-free SAGM medium supplemented with 0.3% bovine serum albumin (BSA) containing 1 mM apocynin dissolved in DMSO or 1% DMSO vehicle control. Uninfected ATII cells incubated in media containing 1% DMSO were used as a negative control. For other subsequent virus infection studies, ATII cells from a different set of three donors (different from those used in HiSeq analysis) or A549 cells from at least three different passages were infected with influenza A viruses at various MOIs as indicated in the text. For H5N1 studies following transfection with siRNA, the infectious dose was optimized to a MOI of 0.01, a dose at which significantly higher CEACAM1 protein expression was induced with minimal cell death at 24 hpi. For PR8 infection studies, a final concentration of 0.5 µg/mL L-1-Tosylamide-2-phenylethyl chloromethyl ketone (TPCK)-treated trypsin (Worthington) was included in media post-inoculation to assist replication. Virus titers were determined using standard plaque assays in MDCK cells as previously described 55 . RNA extraction, quality control (QC) and HiSeq analysis. ATII cells from three donors were used for HiSeq analysis. Total RNA was extracted from cells using a RNeasy Mini kit (Qiagen). Influenza-infected cells were washed with PBS three times and cells lysed with RLT buffer supplemented with β-mercaptoethanol (10 μL/mL; Gibco). Cell lysates were homogenized with QIAshredder columns followed by on-column DNA digestion with the RNase-Free DNase Set (Qiagen), and RNA extracted according to manufacturer's instructions. Initial QC was conducted to ensure that the quantity and quality of RNA samples for HiSeq analysis met the following criteria; 1) RNA samples had OD260/280 ratios between 1.8 and 2.0 as measured with NanoDrop TM Spectrophotometer (Thermo Scientific); 2) Sample concentrations were at a minimum of 100 ng/μl; 3) RNA was analyzed by agarose gel electrophoresis. RNA integrity and quality were validated by the presence of sharp clear bands of 28S and 18S ribosomal RNA, with a 28S:18S ratio of 2:1, along with the absence of genomic DNA and degraded RNA. As part of the initial QC and as an indication of consistent H5N1 infection, parallel quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) using the same RNA samples used for HiSeq analysis was performed in duplicate as previously described 6 to measure mRNA expression of IL6, IFNB1, CXCL10, CCL5, TNF, SOCS1 and SOCS3, all of which are known to be upregulated following HPAI H5N1 infection of A549 cells 6 Sequencing analysis and annotation. After confirming checksums and assessing raw data quality of the FASTQ files with FASTQC, RNA-Seq reads were processed according to standard Tuxedo pipeline protocols 56 , using the annotated human genome (GRCh37, downloaded from Illumina iGenomes) as a reference. Briefly, raw reads for each sample were mapped to the human genome using TopHat2, sorted and converted to SAM format using Samtools and then assembled into transcriptomes using Cufflinks. Cuffmerge was used to combine transcript annotations from individual samples into a single reference transcriptome, and Cuffquant was used to obtain per-sample read counts. Cuffdiff was then used to conduct differential expression analysis. All programs were run using recommended parameters. It is important to note that the reference gtf file provided to cuffmerge was first edited using a custom python script to exclude lines containing features other than exon/cds, and contigs other than chromosomes 1-22, X, Y. GO term and KEGG enrichment. Official gene IDs for transcripts that were differentially modulated following HPAI H5N1 infection with or without apocynin treatment were compiled into six target lists from pairwise comparisons ("ND vs. HD Up", "ND vs. HD Down", "ND vs. HA Up", "ND vs. HA Down", "HD vs. HA Up", "HD vs. HA Down"). Statistically significant differentially expressed transcripts were defined as having ≥2-fold change with a Benjamini-Hochberg adjusted P value < 0.01. A background list of genes was compiled by retrieving all gene IDs identified from the present HiSeq analysis with FPKM > 1. Biological process GO enrichment was performed using Gorilla, comparing unranked background and target lists 57 . Redundant GO terms were removed using REVIGO 58 . Target lists were also subjected to KEGG pathway analysis using a basic KEGG pathway mapper 59 and DAVID Bioinformatics Resources Functional Annotation Tool 60,61 . Quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). mRNA concentrations of genes of interest were assessed and analyzed using qRT-PCR performed in duplicate as previously described 6 . Briefly, after total RNA extraction from influenza-infected cells, cDNA was SCIEntIfIC RepoRtS | (2018) 8:15468 | DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-33605-6 prepared using SuperScript ™ III First-Strand Synthesis SuperMix (Invitrogen). Gene expression of various cytokines was assessed using TaqMan Gene Expression Assays (Applied Biosystems) with commercial TaqMan primers and probes, with the exception of the influenza Matrix (M) gene (forward primer 5′-CTTCTAACCGAGGTCGAAACGTA-3′; reverse primer 5′-GGTGACAGGATTGGTCTTGTCTTTA-3′; probe 5′-FAM-TCAGGCCCCCTCAAAGCCGAG-NFQ-3′) 62 . Specific primers 63 (Table S5) were designed to estimate the expression of CEACAM1-4L, -4S, -3L and -3S in ATII and A549 cells using iTaq Universal SYBR Green Supermix (Bio-Rad) according to manufacturer's instruction. The absence of nonspecific amplification was confirmed by agarose gel electrophoresis of qRT-PCR products (15 μL) (data not shown). Gene expression was normalized to β-actin mRNA using the 2 −ΔΔCT method where expression levels were determined relative to uninfected cell controls. All assays were performed in duplicate using an Applied Biosystems ® StepOnePlus TM Real-Time PCR System. Western blot analysis. Protein expression of CEACAM1 was determined using Western blot analysis as previously described 6 . Protein concentrations in cell lysates were determined using EZQ ® Protein Quantitation Kit (Molecular Probes TM , Invitrogen). Equal amounts of protein were loaded on NuPAGE 4-12% Bis-Tris gels (Invitrogen), resolved by SDS/PAGE and transferred to PVDF membranes (Bio-Rad). Membranes were probed with rabbit anti-human CEACAM1 monoclonal antibody EPR4049 (ab108397, Abcam) followed by goat anti-rabbit HRP-conjugated secondary antibody (Invitrogen). Proteins were visualized by incubating membranes with Pierce enhanced chemiluminescence (ECL) Plus Western Blotting Substrate (Thermo Scientific) followed by detection on a Bio-Rad ChemiDoc ™ MP Imaging System or on Amersham ™ Hyperfilm ™ ECL (GE Healthcare). To use β-actin as a loading control, the same membrane was stripped in stripping buffer (1.5% (w/v) glycine, 0.1% (w/v) SDS, 1% (v/v) Tween-20, pH 2.2) and re-probed with a HRP-conjugated rabbit anti-β-actin monoclonal antibody (Cell Signaling). In some cases, two SDS/PAGE were performed simultaneously with equal amounts of protein loaded onto each gel for analysis of CEACAM1 and β-actin protein expression in each sample, respectively. Protein band density was quantified using Fiji software (version 1.49J10) 64 . CEACAM1 protein band density was normalized against that of β-actin and expressed as fold changes compared to controls. Knockdown of endogenous CEACAM1. ATII and A549 cells were grown to 80% confluency in 6-well plates then transfected with small interfering RNA (siRNA) targeting the human CEACAM1 gene (siCEACAM1; s1976, Silencer ® Select Pre-designed siRNA, Ambion ® ) or siRNA control (siNeg; Silencer ® Select Negative Control No. 1 siRNA, Ambion ® ) using Lipofetamine 3000 (ThermoFisher Scientific) according to manufacturer's instructions. Transfection and silencing efficiency were evaluated after 48 hours by Western blot analysis of CEACAM1 protein expression and by qRT-PCR analysis of CEACAM1 variants. In parallel experiments, virus replication and cytokine/chemokine production was analyzed in siCEACAM1-or siNeg-transfected cells infected with H5N1 virus (MOI = 0.01) at 24 hpi. Statistical analysis. Differences between two experimental groups were evaluated using a Student's unpaired, two-tailed t test. Fold-change differences of mRNA expression (qRT-PCR) between three experimental groups was evaluated using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by a Bonferroni multiple-comparison test. Differences were considered significant with a p value of <0.05. The data are shown as means ± standard error of the mean (SEM) from three or four individual experiments. Statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism for Windows (v5.02). All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this published article or the supplementary information file. The raw and processed HiSeq data has been deposited to GEO (GSE119767; https://www.ncbi. nlm.nih.gov/geo/).

What is the mortality rate of the H5N1 strain of influenza?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is the disadvantage of inclusion of non-HA antigens to HA based vaccines?

1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics Jeffery K. Taubenberger" and David M. Morens1- The “Spanish" influenza pandemic of 1918—1919, which caused :50 million deaths worldwide, remains an ominous warning to public health. Many questions about its origins, its unusual epidemiologic features, and the basis of its pathogenicity remain unanswered. The public health implications of the pandemic therefore remain in doubt even as we now grapple with the feared emergence of a pandemic caused by H5N1 or other virus. However, new information about the 1918 virus is emerging, for example, sequencing of the entire genome from archival autopsy tis- sues. But, the viral genome alone is unlikely to provide answers to some critical questions. Understanding the 1918 pandemic and its implications for future pandemics requires careful experimentation and in-depth historical analysis. ”Curiouser and curiouser/ ” criedAlice Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland, 1865 An estimated one third of the world’s population (or z500 million persons) were infected and had clinical- ly apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 191871919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case- fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at z50 million (577) and were arguably as high as 100 mil- lion (7). The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 191871919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (except- ing human infections from avian Viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 Virus, including “drifted” H1N1 Viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 Viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 Virus, updated by subsequently-incor— porated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface *Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland, USA; and TNational Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA proteins, making the 1918 Virus indeed the “mother” of all pandemics. In 1918, the cause of human influenza and its links to avian and swine influenza were unknown. Despite clinical and epidemiologic similarities to influenza pandemics of 1889, 1847, and even earlier, many questioned whether such an explosively fatal disease could be influenza at all. That question did not begin to be resolved until the 1930s, when closely related influenza Viruses (now known to be H1N1 Viruses) were isolated, first from pigs and shortly thereafter from humans. Seroepidemiologic studies soon linked both of these viruses to the 1918 pandemic (8). Subsequent research indicates that descendants of the 1918 Virus still persists enzootically in pigs. They probably also circulated continuously in humans, undergoing gradual antigenic drift and causing annual epidemics, until the 1950s. With the appearance of a new H2N2 pandemic strain in 1957 (“Asian flu”), the direct H1N1 Viral descen- dants 0f the 1918 pandemic strain disappeared from human circulation entirely, although the related lineage persisted enzootically in pigs. But in 1977, human H1N1 Viruses suddenly “reemerged” from a laboratory freezer (9). They continue to circulate endemically and epidemically. Thus in 2006, 2 major descendant lineages of the 1918 H1N1 Virus, as well as 2 additional reassortant lineages, persist naturally: a human epidemic/endemic H1N1 line- age, a porcine enzootic H1N1 lineage (so-called classic swine flu), and the reassorted human H3N2 Virus lineage, which like the human H1N1 Virus, has led to a porcine H3N2 lineage. None of these Viral descendants, however, approaches the pathogenicity of the 1918 parent Virus. Apparently, the porcine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages uncom- monly infect humans, and the human H1N1 and H3N2 lin- eages have both been associated with substantially lower rates ofillness and death than the virus of 1918. In fact, cur- rent H1N1 death rates are even lower than those for H3N2 lineage strains (prevalent from 1968 until the present). H1N1 Viruses descended from the 1918 strain, as well as H3N2 Viruses, have now been cocirculating worldwide for 29 years and show little evidence of imminent extinction. Trying To Understand What Happened By the early 1990s, 75 years of research had failed to answer a most basic question about the 1918 pandemic: why was it so fatal? No Virus from 1918 had been isolated, but all of its apparent descendants caused substantially milder human disease. Moreover, examination of mortality data from the 1920s suggests that within a few years after 1918, influenza epidemics had settled into a pattern of annual epidemicity associated with strain drifting and sub- stantially lowered death rates. Did some critical Viral genet- ic event produce a 1918 Virus of remarkable pathogenicity and then another critical genetic event occur soon after the 1918 pandemic to produce an attenuated H1N1 Virus? In 1995, a scientific team identified archival influenza autopsy materials collected in the autumn of 1918 and began the slow process of sequencing small Viral RNA fragments to determine the genomic structure of the causative influenza Virus (10). These efforts have now determined the complete genomic sequence of 1 Virus and partial sequences from 4 others. The primary data from the above studies (11717) and a number of reviews covering different aspects of the 1918 pandemic have recently been published ([8720) and confirm that the 1918 Virus is the likely ancestor of all 4 of the human and swine H1N1 and H3N2 lineages, as well as the “extinct” H2N2 lineage. No known mutations correlated with high pathogenicity in other human or animal influenza Viruses have been found in the 1918 genome, but ongoing studies to map Virulence factors are yielding interesting results. The 1918 sequence data, however, leave unanswered questions about the ori- gin of the Virus (19) and about the epidemiology of the pandemic. When and Where Did the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Arise? Before and after 1918, most influenza pandemics developed in Asia and spread from there to the rest of the world. Confounding definite assignment of a geographic point of origin, the 1918 pandemic spread more or less simultaneously in 3 distinct waves during an z12-month period in 191871919, in Europe, Asia, and North America (the first wave was best described in the United States in March 1918). Historical and epidemiologic data are inade- quate to identify the geographic origin of the Virus (21), and recent phylogenetic analysis of the 1918 Viral genome does not place the Virus in any geographic context ([9). Although in 1918 influenza was not a nationally reportable disease and diagnostic criteria for influenza and pneumonia were vague, death rates from influenza and pneumonia in the United States had risen sharply in 1915 and 1916 because of a major respiratory disease epidemic beginning in December 1915 (22). Death rates then dipped slightly in 1917. The first pandemic influenza wave appeared in the spring of 1918, followed in rapid succes- sion by much more fatal second and third waves in the fall and winter of 191871919, respectively (Figure 1). Is it pos- sible that a poorly-adapted H1N1 Virus was already begin- ning to spread in 1915, causing some serious illnesses but not yet sufficiently fit to initiate a pandemic? Data consis- tent with this possibility were reported at the time from European military camps (23), but a counter argument is that if a strain with a new hemagglutinin (HA) was caus- ing enough illness to affect the US national death rates from pneumonia and influenza, it should have caused a pandemic sooner, and when it eventually did, in 1918, many people should have been immune or at least partial- ly immunoprotected. “Herald” events in 1915, 1916, and possibly even in early 1918, if they occurred, would be dif- ficult to identify. The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique fea- ture, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The Virus of the 1918 pandemic like- ly expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neu- raminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 Virus were derived from an avianlike influenza Virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor Virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15, 24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the Virus also support this conclu- sion. Regression analyses of human and swine influenza sequences obtained from 1930 to the present place the ini- tial circulation of the 1918 precursor Virus in humans at approximately 191571918 (20). Thus, the precursor was probably not circulating widely in humans until shortly before 1918, nor did it appear to have jumped directly from any species of bird studied to date (19). In summary, its origin remains puzzling. Were the 3 Waves in 1918—1 919 Caused by the Same Virus? If So, How and Why? Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of interpandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza Viruses behave differently when they find a uni- versal or highly susceptible human population. Thereafter, confronted by the selection pressures of population immu- nity, these pandemic Viruses begin to drift genetically and eventually settle into a pattern of annual epidemic recur- rences caused by the drifted Virus variants. Figure 1. Three pandemic waves: weekly combined influenza and pneumonia mortality, United Kingdom, 1918—1919 (21). In the 1918-1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A sec- ond or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similari- ties led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandem- ic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infec- tions to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 191871919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher fre- quency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves. But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented. The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recur- rent annual outbreaks, are driven by Viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant Virus emerging to become domi- nant approximately every 2 to 3 years. Without such drift, circulating human influenza Viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further Virus spread was sufficiently limited. The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting Virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environ- mental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (bene- ficial to thermolabile Viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ven- tilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow. However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918-1919, which occurred in the spring-sum- mer, summer—fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza Virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave peri- ods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult. Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could suscep- tible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point, and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later? Could the Virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring Viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And hav- ing occurred, such mutated Viruses normally take months to spread around the world. At the beginning of other “off season” influenza pan- demics, successive distinct waves within a year have not been reported. The 1889 pandemic, for example, began in the late spring of 1889 and took several months to spread throughout the world, peaking in northern Europe and the United States late in 1889 or early in 1890. The second recurrence peaked in late spring 1891 (more than a year after the first pandemic appearance) and the third in early 1892 (21 ). As was true for the 1918 pandemic, the second 1891 recurrence produced of the most deaths. The 3 recur- rences in 1889-1892, however, were spread over >3 years, in contrast to 191871919, when the sequential waves seen in individual countries were typically compressed into z879 months. What gave the 1918 Virus the unprecedented ability to generate rapidly successive pandemic waves is unclear. Because the only 1918 pandemic Virus samples we have yet identified are from second-wave patients ([6), nothing can yet be said about whether the first (spring) wave, or for that matter, the third wave, represented circulation of the same Virus or variants of it. Data from 1918 suggest that persons infected in the second wave may have been pro- tected from influenza in the third wave. But the few data bearing on protection during the second and third waves after infection in the first wave are inconclusive and do lit- tle to resolve the question of whether the first wave was caused by the same Virus or whether major genetic evolu- tionary events were occurring even as the pandemic exploded and progressed. Only influenza RNAipositive human samples from before 1918, and from all 3 waves, can answer this question. What Was the Animal Host Origin of the Pandemic Virus? Viral sequence data now suggest that the entire 1918 Virus was novel to humans in, or shortly before, 1918, and that it thus was not a reassortant Virus produced from old existing strains that acquired 1 or more new genes, such as those causing the 1957 and 1968 pandemics. On the con- trary, the 1918 Virus appears to be an avianlike influenza Virus derived in toto from an unknown source (17,19), as its 8 genome segments are substantially different from contemporary avian influenza genes. Influenza Virus gene sequences from a number offixed specimens ofwild birds collected circa 1918 show little difference from avian Viruses isolated today, indicating that avian Viruses likely undergo little antigenic change in their natural hosts even over long periods (24,25). For example, the 1918 nucleoprotein (NP) gene sequence is similar to that ofviruses found in wild birds at the amino acid level but very divergent at the nucleotide level, which suggests considerable evolutionary distance between the sources of the 1918 NP and of currently sequenced NP genes in wild bird strains (13,19). One way of looking at the evolutionary distance of genes is to com- pare ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous nucleotide substitutions. A synonymous substitution represents a silent change, a nucleotide change in a codon that does not result in an amino acid replacement. A nonsynonymous substitution is a nucleotide change in a codon that results in an amino acid replacement. Generally, a Viral gene sub- jected to immunologic drift pressure or adapting to a new host exhibits a greater percentage of nonsynonymous mutations, while a Virus under little selective pressure accumulates mainly synonymous changes. Since little or no selection pressure is exerted on synonymous changes, they are thought to reflect evolutionary distance. Because the 1918 gene segments have more synony- mous changes from known sequences of wild bird strains than expected, they are unlikely to have emerged directly from an avian influenza Virus similar to those that have been sequenced so far. This is especially apparent when one examines the differences at 4-fold degenerate codons, the subset of synonymous changes in which, at the third codon position, any of the 4 possible nucleotides can be substituted without changing the resulting amino acid. At the same time, the 1918 sequences have too few amino acid difierences from those of wild-bird strains to have spent many years adapting only in a human or swine intermedi- ate host. One possible explanation is that these unusual gene segments were acquired from a reservoir of influenza Virus that has not yet been identified or sampled. All of these findings beg the question: where did the 1918 Virus come from? In contrast to the genetic makeup of the 1918 pandem- ic Virus, the novel gene segments of the reassorted 1957 and 1968 pandemic Viruses all originated in Eurasian avian Viruses (26); both human Viruses arose by the same mech- anismireassortment of a Eurasian wild waterfowl strain with the previously circulating human H1N1 strain. Proving the hypothesis that the Virus responsible for the 1918 pandemic had a markedly different origin requires samples of human influenza strains circulating before 1918 and samples of influenza strains in the wild that more closely resemble the 1918 sequences. What Was the Biological Basis for 1918 Pandemic Virus Pathogenicity? Sequence analysis alone does not ofier clues to the pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus. A series of experiments are under way to model Virulence in Vitro and in animal models by using Viral constructs containing 1918 genes produced by reverse genetics. Influenza Virus infection requires binding of the HA protein to sialic acid receptors on host cell surface. The HA receptor-binding site configuration is different for those influenza Viruses adapted to infect birds and those adapted to infect humans. Influenza Virus strains adapted to birds preferentially bind sialic acid receptors with 01 (273) linked sugars (27729). Human-adapted influenza Viruses are thought to preferentially bind receptors with 01 (2%) link- ages. The switch from this avian receptor configuration requires of the Virus only 1 amino acid change (30), and the HAs of all 5 sequenced 1918 Viruses have this change, which suggests that it could be a critical step in human host adaptation. A second change that greatly augments Virus binding to the human receptor may also occur, but only 3 of5 1918 HA sequences have it (16). This means that at least 2 H1N1 receptor-binding vari- ants cocirculated in 1918: 1 with high—affinity binding to the human receptor and 1 with mixed-affinity binding to both avian and human receptors. No geographic or chrono- logic indication eXists to suggest that one of these variants was the precursor of the other, nor are there consistent dif- ferences between the case histories or histopathologic fea- tures of the 5 patients infected with them. Whether the Viruses were equally transmissible in 1918, whether they had identical patterns of replication in the respiratory tree, and whether one or both also circulated in the first and third pandemic waves, are unknown. In a series of in Vivo experiments, recombinant influen- za Viruses containing between 1 and 5 gene segments of the 1918 Virus have been produced. Those constructs bearing the 1918 HA and NA are all highly pathogenic in mice (31). Furthermore, expression microarray analysis performed on whole lung tissue of mice infected with the 1918 HA/NA recombinant showed increased upregulation of genes involved in apoptosis, tissue injury, and oxidative damage (32). These findings are unexpected because the Viruses with the 1918 genes had not been adapted to mice; control experiments in which mice were infected with modern human Viruses showed little disease and limited Viral replication. The lungs of animals infected with the 1918 HA/NA construct showed bronchial and alveolar epithelial necrosis and a marked inflammatory infiltrate, which suggests that the 1918 HA (and possibly the NA) contain Virulence factors for mice. The Viral genotypic basis of this pathogenicity is not yet mapped. Whether pathogenicity in mice effectively models pathogenicity in humans is unclear. The potential role of the other 1918 pro- teins, singularly and in combination, is also unknown. Experiments to map further the genetic basis of Virulence of the 1918 Virus in various animal models are planned. These experiments may help define the Viral component to the unusual pathogenicity of the 1918 Virus but cannot address whether specific host factors in 1918 accounted for unique influenza mortality patterns. Why Did the 1918 Virus Kill So Many Healthy Young Ad ults? The curve of influenza deaths by age at death has histor- ically, for at least 150 years, been U-shaped (Figure 2), exhibiting mortality peaks in the very young and the very old, with a comparatively low frequency of deaths at all ages in between. In contrast, age-specific death rates in the 1918 pandemic exhibited a distinct pattern that has not been documented before or since: a “W—shaped” curve, similar to the familiar U-shaped curve but with the addition of a third (middle) distinct peak of deaths in young adults z20410 years of age. Influenza and pneumonia death rates for those 1534 years of age in 191871919, for example, were 20 times higher than in previous years (35). Overall, near- ly half of the influenza—related deaths in the 1918 pandem- ic were in young adults 20410 years of age, a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year. The 1918 pandemic is also unique among influenza pandemics in that absolute risk of influenza death was higher in those <65 years of age than in those >65; persons <65 years of age accounted for >99% of all excess influenza—related deaths in 191871919. In com- parison, the <65-year age group accounted for 36% of all excess influenza—related deaths in the 1957 H2N2 pandem- ic and 48% in the 1968 H3N2 pandemic (33). A sharper perspective emerges when 1918 age-specific influenza morbidity rates (21) are used to adj ust the W- shaped mortality curve (Figure 3, panels, A, B, and C [35,37]). Persons 65 years of age in 1918 had a dispro- portionately high influenza incidence (Figure 3, panel A). But even after adjusting age-specific deaths by age-specif— ic clinical attack rates (Figure 3, panel B), a W—shaped curve with a case-fatality peak in young adults remains and is significantly different from U-shaped age-specific case- fatality curves typically seen in other influenza years, e.g., 192871929 (Figure 3, panel C). Also, in 1918 those 5 to 14 years of age accounted for a disproportionate number of influenza cases, but had a much lower death rate from influenza and pneumonia than other age groups. To explain this pattern, we must look beyond properties of the Virus to host and environmental factors, possibly including immunopathology (e.g., antibody-dependent infection enhancement associated with prior Virus exposures [38]) and exposure to risk cofactors such as coinfecting agents, medications, and environmental agents. One theory that may partially explain these findings is that the 1918 Virus had an intrinsically high Virulence, tem- pered only in those patients who had been born before 1889, e.g., because of exposure to a then-circulating Virus capable of providing partial immunoprotection against the 1918 Virus strain only in persons old enough (>35 years) to have been infected during that prior era (35). But this the- ory would present an additional paradox: an obscure pre- cursor Virus that left no detectable trace today would have had to have appeared and disappeared before 1889 and then reappeared more than 3 decades later. Epidemiologic data on rates of clinical influenza by age, collected between 1900 and 1918, provide good evi- dence for the emergence of an antigenically novel influen- za Virus in 1918 (21). Jordan showed that from 1900 to 1917, the 5- to 15-year age group accounted for 11% of total influenza cases, while the >65-year age group accounted for 6 % of influenza cases. But in 1918, cases in Figure 2. “U-” and “W—” shaped combined influenza and pneumo- nia mortality, by age at death, per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, 1911—1918. Influenza- and pneumonia- specific death rates are plotted for the interpandemic years 1911—1917 (dashed line) and for the pandemic year 1918 (solid line) (33,34). Incidence male per 1 .nao persunslage group Mortality per 1.000 persunslige group + Case—fataiity rale 1918—1919 Case fatalily par 100 persons ill wilh P&I pel age group Figure 3. Influenza plus pneumonia (P&l) (combined) age-specific incidence rates per 1,000 persons per age group (panel A), death rates per 1,000 persons, ill and well combined (panel B), and case-fatality rates (panel C, solid line), US Public Health Service house-to-house surveys, 8 states, 1918 (36). A more typical curve of age-specific influenza case-fatality (panel C, dotted line) is taken from US Public Health Service surveys during 1928—1929 (37). the 5 to 15-year-old group jumped to 25% of influenza cases (compatible with exposure to an antigenically novel Virus strain), while the >65-year age group only accounted for 0.6% of the influenza cases, findings consistent with previously acquired protective immunity caused by an identical or closely related Viral protein to which older per- sons had once been exposed. Mortality data are in accord. In 1918, persons >75 years had lower influenza and pneumonia case-fatality rates than they had during the prepandemic period of 191171917. At the other end of the age spectrum (Figure 2), a high proportion of deaths in infancy and early childhood in 1918 mimics the age pat- tern, if not the mortality rate, of other influenza pandemics. Could a 1918-like Pandemic Appear Again? If So, What Could We Do About It? In its disease course and pathologic features, the 1918 pandemic was different in degree, but not in kind, from previous and subsequent pandemics. Despite the extraordi- nary number of global deaths, most influenza cases in 1918 (>95% in most locales in industrialized nations) were mild and essentially indistinguishable from influenza cases today. Furthermore, laboratory experiments with recombi- nant influenza Viruses containing genes from the 1918 Virus suggest that the 1918 and 1918-like Viruses would be as sensitive as other typical Virus strains to the Food and Drug Administrationiapproved antiinfluenza drugs riman- tadine and oseltamivir. However, some characteristics of the 1918 pandemic appear unique: most notably, death rates were 5 7 20 times higher than expected. Clinically and pathologically, these high death rates appear to be the result of several factors, including a higher proportion of severe and complicated infections of the respiratory tract, rather than involvement of organ systems outside the normal range of the influenza Virus. Also, the deaths were concentrated in an unusually young age group. Finally, in 1918, 3 separate recurrences of influenza followed each other with unusual rapidity, resulting in 3 explosive pandemic waves within a year’s time (Figure 1). Each of these unique characteristics may reflect genetic features of the 1918 Virus, but understand- ing them will also require examination of host and envi- ronmental factors. Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. Like the 1918 Virus, H5N1 is an avian Virus (39), though a distantly related one. The evolutionary path that led to pandemic emergence in 1918 is entirely unknown, but it appears to be different in many respects from the cur- rent situation with H5N1. There are no historical data, either in 1918 or in any other pandemic, for establishing that a pandemic “precursor” Virus caused a highly patho- genic outbreak in domestic poultry, and no highly patho- genic avian influenza (HPAI) Virus, including H5N1 and a number of others, has ever been known to cause a major human epidemic, let alone a pandemic. While data bearing on influenza Virus human cell adaptation (e.g., receptor binding) are beginning to be understood at the molecular level, the basis for Viral adaptation to efficient human-to- human spread, the chief prerequisite for pandemic emer- gence, is unknown for any influenza Virus. The 1918 Virus acquired this trait, but we do not know how, and we cur- rently have no way of knowing whether H5N1 Viruses are now in a parallel process of acquiring human-to-human transmissibility. Despite an explosion of data on the 1918 Virus during the past decade, we are not much closer to understanding pandemic emergence in 2006 than we were in understanding the risk of H1N1 “swine flu” emergence in 1976. Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pan- demic Virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the Virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic Virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths. Whether because of Viral, host or environmental fac- tors, the 1918 Virus causing the first or ‘spring’ wave was not associated with the exceptional pathogenicity of the second (fall) and third (winter) waves. Identification of an influenza RNA-positive case from the first wave could point to a genetic basis for Virulence by allowing differ- ences in Viral sequences to be highlighted. Identification of pre-1918 human influenza RNA samples would help us understand the timing of emergence of the 1918 Virus. Surveillance and genomic sequencing of large numbers of animal influenza Viruses will help us understand the genet- ic basis of host adaptation and the extent of the natural reservoir of influenza Viruses. Understanding influenza pandemics in general requires understanding the 1918 pan- demic in all its historical, epidemiologic, and biologic aspects. Dr Taubenberger is chair of the Department of Molecular Pathology at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, Rockville, Maryland. His research interests include the molecular patho- physiology and evolution of influenza Viruses. Dr Morens is an epidemiologist with a long-standing inter- est in emerging infectious diseases, Virology, tropical medicine, and medical history. Since 1999, he has worked at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. References 1. Frost WH. Statistics of influenza morbidity. Public Health Rep. 19203558497. 2. Bumet F, Clark E. Influenza: a survey ofthe last 50 years in the light of modern work on the Virus of epidemic influenza. Melbourne: MacMillan; 1942. 3. Marks G, Beatty WK. Epidemics. New York: Scribners, 1976. 4. Rosenau MJ, Last JM. Maxcy-Rosenau preventative medicine and public health. New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts; 1980. 5. Crosby A. America’s forgotten pandemic. Cambridge (UK): Cambridge University Press;1989. 6. Patterson KD, Pyle GF. The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med. 1991;65:4–21. 7. Johnson NPAS, Mueller J. Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic. Bull Hist Med 2002;76:105–15. 8. Shope RE. The incidence of neutralizing antibodies for swine influenza virus in the sera of human beings of different ages. J Exp Med. 1936;63:669–84. 9. Kendal AP, Noble GR, Skehel JJ, Dowdle WR. Antigenic similarity of influenza A (H1N1) viruses from epidemics in 1977–1978 to “Scandinavian” strains isolated in epidemics of 1950–1951. Virology. 1978;89:632–6. 10. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Krafft AE, Bijwaard KE, Fanning TG. Initial genetic characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus. Science. 1997;275:1793–6. 11. Basler CF, Reid AH, Dybing JK, Janczewski TA, Fanning TG, Zheng H, et al. Sequence of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus nonstructural gene (NS) segment and characterization of recombinant viruses bearing the 1918 NS genes. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2001;98:2746–51. 12. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Hultin JV, Taubenberger JK. Origin and evolution of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus hemagglutinin gene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 1999;96:1651–6. 13. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, Lourens RM, and Taubenberger JK. Novel origin of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus nucleoprotein gene segment. J Virol. 2004;78:12462–70. 14. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, McCall S, Taubenberger JK. Characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus matrix gene segment. J Virol. 2002;76:10717–23. 15. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Janczewski TA, Taubenberger JK. Characterization of the 1918 “Spanish” influenza virus neuraminidase gene. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2000;97:6785–90. 16. Reid AH, Janczewski TA, Lourens RM, Elliot AJ, Daniels RS, Berry CL, et al. 1918 influenza pandemic caused by highly conserved viruses with two receptor-binding variants. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003;9:1249–53. 17. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Lourens RM, Wang R, Jin G, Fanning TG. Characterization of the 1918 influenza virus polymerase genes. Nature. 2005;437:889–93. 18. Reid AH, Taubenberger JK. The 1918 flu and other influenza pandemics: “over there” and back again. Lab Invest. 1999;79:95–101. 19. Reid AH, Taubenberger JK, Fanning TG. Evidence of an absence: the genetic origins of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2004;2:909–14. 20. Taubenberger JK, Reid AH, Fanning TG. The 1918 influenza virus: a killer comes into view. Virology. 2000;274:241–5. 21. Jordan E. Epidemic influenza: a survey. Chicago: American Medical Association, 1927. 22. Capps J, Moody A. The recent epidemic of grip. JAMA. 1916;67:1349–50. 33. Oxford JS, Sefton A, Jackson R, Innes W, Daniels RS, Johnson NP. World War I may have allowed the emergence of “Spanish” influenza. Lancet Infect Dis. 2002;2:111–4. 24. Fanning TG, Slemons RD, Reid AH, Janczewski TA, Dean J, Taubenberger JK. 1917 avian influenza virus sequences suggest that the 1918 pandemic virus did not acquire its hemagglutinin directly from birds. J Virol. 2002;76:7860–2. 25. Reid AH, Fanning TG, Slemons RD, Janczewski TA, Dean J, Taubenberger JK. Relationship of pre-1918 avian influenza HA and NP sequences to subsequent avian influenza strains. Avian Dis. 2003;47:921–5. 26. Bean W, Schell M, Katz J, Kawaoka Y, Naeve C, Gorman O, et al. Evolution of the H3 influenza virus hemagglutinin from human and nonhuman hosts. J Virol. 1992;66:1129–38. 27. Weis W, Brown JH, Cusack S, Paulson JC, Skehel JJ, Wiley DC. Structure of the influenza virus haemagglutinin complexed with its receptor, sialic acid. Nature. 1988;333:426–31. 28. Gambaryan AS, Tuzikov AB, Piskarev VE, Yamnikova SS, Lvov DK, Robertson JS, et al. Specification of receptor-binding phenotypes of influenza virus isolates from different hosts using synthetic sialylglycopolymers: non-egg-adapted human H1 and H3 influenza A and influenza B viruses share a common high binding affinity for 6′-sialyl(N-acetyllactosamine). Virology. 1997;232: 345–50. 29. Matrosovich M, Gambaryan A, Teneberg S, Piskarev VE, Yamnikova SS, Lvov DK, et al. Avian influenza A viruses differ from human viruses by recognition of sialyloigosaccharides and gangliosides and by a higher conservation of the HA receptor-binding site. Virology. 1997;233:224–34. 30. Glaser L, Stevens J, Zamarin D, Wilson IA, Garcia-Sastre A, Tumpey TM, et al. A single amino acid substitution in the 1918 influenza virus hemagglutinin changes the receptor binding specificity. J Virol. 2005;79:11533–6. 31. Kobasa D, Takada A, Shinya K, Hatta M, Halfmann P, Theriault S, et al. Enhanced virulence of influenza A viruses with the haemagglutinin of the 1918 pandemic virus. Nature. 2004;431:703–7. 32. Kash JC, Basler CF, Garcia-Sastre A, Carter V, Billharz R, Swayne DE, et al. Global host immune response: pathogenesis and transcriptional profiling of type A influenza viruses expressing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes from the 1918 pandemic virus. J Virol. 2004;78:9499–511. 33. Grove RD, Hetzel AM. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1940–1960. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1968. 34. Linder FE, Grove RD. Vital statistics rates in the United States: 1900–1940. Washington: US Government Printing Office, 1943. 35. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Schonberger LB, Arden NH, Cox NJ, Fukuda K. Pandemic versus epidemic influenza mortality: a pattern of changing age distribution. J Infect Dis 1998;178:53–60. 36. Frost WH. The epidemiology of influenza. Public Health Rep. 1919;34:1823–61. 37. Collins SD. Age and sex incidence of influenza and pneumonia morbidity and mortality in the epidemic of 1928-1929 with comparative data for the epidemic of 1918–1919. Public Health Rep. 1931;46:1909–37. 38. Majde JA. Influenza: Learn from the past. ASM News. 1996;62:514. 39. Peiris JS, Yu WC, Leung CW, Cheung CY, Ng WF, Nicholls JM, et al. Re-emergence of fatal human influenza A subtype H5N1 disease. Lancet. 2004;363:617–9. Address for correspondence: Jeffery K. Taubenberger, Department of Molecular Pathology, Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, 1413 Research Blvd, Bldg 101, Rm 1057, Rockville, MD 20850-3125, USA; fax. 301-295-9507; email: [email protected] The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the institutions with which the authors are affiliated.

When did the Swine Flu (Spanish Influenza) virus reappear in humans?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

What would a shorter mean serial interval mean?

Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079962/ SHA: f7cfc37ea164f16393d7f4f3f2b32214dea1ded4 Authors: Jamieson, Amanda M Date: 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0060 License: cc-by Abstract: Recently, two coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, have emerged to cause unusually severe respiratory disease in humans. Currently, there is a lack of effective antiviral treatment options or vaccine available. Given the severity of these outbreaks, and the possibility of additional zoonotic coronaviruses emerging in the near future, the exploration of different treatment strategies is necessary. Disease resilience is the ability of a given host to tolerate an infection, and to return to a state of health. This review focuses on exploring various host resilience mechanisms that could be exploited for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Text: The 21st century was heralded with the emergence of two novel coronaviruses (CoV) that have unusually high pathogenicity and mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) was first identified in 2003 [6] [7] [8] [9] . While there was initially great concern about SARS-CoV, once no new cases emerged, funding and research decreased. However, a decade later Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), also known as HCoV-EMC, emerged initially in Saudi Arabia [3, 10] . SARS-CoV infected about 8000 people, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 10% of those infected [11] . While MERS-CoV is not as widespread as SARS-CoV, it appears to have an even higher mortality rate, with 35-50% of diagnosed infections resulting in death [3, [12] [13] . These deadly betacoronavirus viruses existed in animal reservoirs [4] [5] 9, [14] [15] . Recently, other CoVs have been detected in animal populations raising the possibility that we will see a repeat of these types of outbreaks in the near future [11, [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . Both these zoonotic viruses cause a much more severe disease than what is typically seen for CoVs, making them a global health concern. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV result in severe lung pathology. Many infected patients have acute lung injury (ALI), a condition that is diagnosed based on the presence of pulmonary edema and respiratory failure without a cardiac cause. In some patients there is a progression to the more severe form of ALI, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [21] [22] [23] . In order to survive a given infection, a successful host must not only be able to clear the pathogen, but tolerate damage caused by the pathogen itself and also by the host's immune response [24] [25] [26] . We refer to resilience as the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of pathogens and the immune response to pathogens. A resilient host is able to return to a state of health after responding to an infection [24, [27] [28] . Most currently available treatment options for infectious diseases are antimicrobials, For reprint orders, please contact: [email protected] REviEW Jamieson future science group and thus target the pathogen itself. Given the damage that pathogens can cause this focus on rapid pathogen clearance is understandable. However, an equally important medical intervention is to increase the ability of the host to tolerate the direct and indirect effects of the pathogen, and this is an area that is just beginning to be explored [29] . Damage to the lung epithelium by respiratory pathogens is a common cause of decreased resilience [30] [31] [32] . This review explores some of the probable host resilience pathways to viral infections, with a particular focus on the emerging coronaviruses. We will also examine factors that make some patients disease tolerant and other patients less tolerant to the viral infection. These factors can serve as a guide to new potential therapies for improved patient care. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are typified by a rapid progression to ARDS, however, there are some distinct differences in the infectivity and pathogenicity. The two viruses have different receptors leading to different cellular tropism, and SARS-CoV is more ubiquitous in the cell type and species it can infect. SARS-CoV uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry to cells, while MERS-CoV uses the ectopeptidase DPP4 [33] [34] [35] [36] . Unlike SARS-CoV infection, which causes primarily a severe respiratory syndrome, MERS-CoV infection can also lead to kidney failure [37, 38] . SARS-CoV also spreads more rapidly between hosts, while MERS-CoV has been more easily contained, but it is unclear if this is due to the affected patient populations and regions [3] [4] 39 ]. Since MERS-CoV is a very recently discovered virus, [40, 41] more research has been done on SARS-CoV. However, given the similarities it is hoped that some of these findings can also be applied to MERS-CoV, and other potential emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. Both viral infections elicit a very strong inflammatory response, and are also able to circumvent the immune response. There appears to be several ways that these viruses evade and otherwise redirect the immune response [1, [42] [43] [44] [45] . The pathways that lead to the induction of the antiviral type I interferon (IFN) response are common targets of many viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are contained in double membrane vesicles (DMVs), that prevents sensing of its genome [1, 46] . As with most coronaviruses several viral proteins suppress the type I IFN response, and other aspects of innate antiviral immunity [47] . These alterations of the type I IFN response appear to play a role in immunopathology in more than one way. In patients with high initial viral titers there is a poor prognosis [39, 48] . This indicates that reduction of the antiviral response may lead to direct viral-induced pathology. There is also evidence that the delayed type I IFN response can lead to misregulation of the immune response that can cause immunopathology. In a mouse model of SARS-CoV infection, the type I IFN response is delayed [49] . The delay of this potent antiviral response leads to decreased viral clearance, at the same time there is an increase in inflammatory cells of the immune system that cause excessive immunopathology [49] . In this case, the delayed antiviral response not only causes immunopathology, it also fails to properly control the viral replication. While more research is needed, it appears that MERS has a similar effect on the innate immune response [5, 50] . The current treatment and prevention options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are limited. So far there are no licensed vaccines for SAR-CoV or MERS-CoV, although several strategies have been tried in animal models [51, 52] . There are also no antiviral strategies that are clearly effective in controlled trials. During outbreaks several antiviral strategies were empirically tried, but these uncontrolled studies gave mixed results [5, 39] . The main antivirals used were ribavirin, lopinavir and ritonavir [38, 53] . These were often used in combination with IFN therapy [54] . However, retrospective analysis of these data has not led to clear conclusions of the efficacy of these treatment options. Research in this area is still ongoing and it is hoped that we will soon have effective strategies to treat novel CoV [3,36,38,40, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] . The lack of effective antivirals makes it necessary to examine other potential treatments for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Even if there were effective strategies to decrease viral burden, for these viruses, the potential for new emerging zoonotic CoVs presents additional complications. Vaccines cannot be produced in time to stop the spread of an emerging virus. In addition, as was demonstrated during SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks, there is always a challenge during a crisis situation to know which Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses REviEW future science group www.futuremedicine.com antiviral will work on a given virus. One method of addressing this is to develop broad-spectrum antivirals that target conserved features of a given class of virus [65] . However, given the fast mutation rates of viruses there are several challenges to this strategy. Another method is to increase the ability of a given patient to tolerate the disease, i.e., target host resilience mechanisms. So far this has largely been in the form of supportive care, which relies on mechanical ventilation and oxygenation [29, 39, 66] . Since SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered relatively recently there is a lack of both patient and experimental data. However, many other viruses cause ALI and ARDS, including influenza A virus (IAV). By looking at data from other high pathology viruses we can extrapolate various pathways that could be targeted during infection with these emerging CoVs. This can add to our understanding of disease resilience mechanisms that we have learned from direct studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Increased understanding of host resilience mechanisms can lead to future host-based therapies that could increase patient survival [29] . One common theme that emerges in many respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is that much of the pathology is due to an excessive inflammatory response. A study from Josset et al. examines the cell host response to both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and discovered that MERS-CoV dysregulates the host transcriptome to a much greater extent than SARS-CoV [67] . It demonstrates that glucocorticoids may be a potential way of altering the changes in the host transcriptome at late time points after infection. If host gene responses are maintained this may increase disease resilience. Given the severe disease that manifested during the SARS-CoV outbreak, many different treatment options were empirically tried on human patients. One immunomodulatory treatment that was tried during the SARS-CoV outbreak was systemic corticosteroids. This was tried with and without the use of type I IFNs and other therapies that could directly target the virus [68] . Retrospective analysis revealed that, when given at the correct time and to the appropriate patients, corticosteroid use could decrease mortality and also length of hospital stays [68] . In addition, there is some evidence that simultaneous treatment with IFNs could increase the potential benefits [69] . Although these treatments are not without complications, and there has been a lack of a randomized controlled trial [5, 39] . Corticosteroids are broadly immunosuppressive and have many physiological effects [5, 39] . Several recent studies have suggested that other compounds could be useful in increasing host resilience to viral lung infections. A recent paper demonstrates that topoisomerase I can protect against inflammation-induced death from a variety of viral infections including IAV [70] . Blockade of C5a complement signaling has also been suggested as a possible option in decreasing inflammation during IAV infection [71] . Other immunomodulators include celecoxib, mesalazine and eritoran [72, 73] . Another class of drugs that have been suggested are statins. They act to stabilize the activation of aspects of the innate immune response and prevent excessive inflammation [74] . However, decreasing immunopathology by immunomodulation is problematic because it can lead to increased pathogen burden, and thus increase virus-induced pathology [75, 76] . Another potential treatment option is increasing tissue repair pathways to increase host resilience to disease. This has been shown by bioinformatics [77] , as well as in several animal models [30-31,78-79]. These therapies have been shown in cell culture model systems or animal models to be effective, but have not been demonstrated in human patients. The correct timing of the treatments is essential. Early intervention has been shown to be the most effective in some cases, but other therapies work better when given slightly later during the course of the infection. As the onset of symptoms varies slightly from patient to patient the need for precise timing will be a challenge. Examination of potential treatment options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV should include consideration of host resilience [29] . In addition to the viral effects, and the pathology caused by the immune response, there are various comorbidities associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that lead to adverse outcomes. Interestingly, these additional risk factors that lead to a more severe disease are different between the two viruses. It is unclear if these differences are due to distinct populations affected by the viruses, because of properties of the virus themselves, or both. Understanding these factors could be a key to increasing host resilience to the infections. MERS-CoV patients had increased morbidity and mortality if they were obese, immunocompromised, diabetic or had cardiac disease [4, 12] . REviEW Jamieson future science group Risk factors for SARS-CoV patients included an older age and male [39] . Immune factors that increased mortality for SARS-CoV were a higher neutrophil count and low T-cell counts [5, 39, 77] . One factor that increased disease for patients infected with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV was infection with other viruses or bacteria [5, 39] . This is similar to what is seen with many other respiratory infections. A recent study looking at malaria infections in animal models and human patients demonstrated that resilient hosts can be predicted [28] . Clinical studies have started to correlate specific biomarkers with disease outcomes in ARDS patients [80] . By understanding risk factors for disease severity we can perhaps predict if a host may be nonresilient and tailor the treatment options appropriately. A clear advantage of targeting host resilience pathways is that these therapies can be used to treat a variety of different infections. In addition, there is no need to develop a vaccine or understand the antiviral susceptibility of a new virus. Toward this end, understanding why some patients or patient populations have increased susceptibility is of paramount importance. In addition, a need for good model systems to study responses to these new emerging coronaviruses is essential. Research into both these subjects will lead us toward improved treatment of emerging viruses that cause ALI, such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The author has no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript. • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus are zoonotic coronaviruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. • Antivirals have limited effects on the course of the infection with these coronaviruses. • There is currently no vaccine for either severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. • Host resilience is the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of an infection and return to a state of health. • Several pathways, including control of inflammation, metabolism and tissue repair may be targeted to increase host resilience. • The future challenge is to target host resilience pathways in such a way that there are limited effects on pathogen clearance pathways. Future studies should determine the safety of these types of treatments for human patients. Papers of special note have been highlighted as:

How do SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV evade the immune system sensing it's genome?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

What is important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus.

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

what was the result of the decline in population of Ae. Aegyptus when the virus struck the Reunion Islands, due to massive use dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage?

Frontiers in antiviral therapy and immunotherapy https://doi.org/10.1002/cti2.1115 SHA: facbfdfa7189ca9ff83dc30e5d241ab22e962dbf Authors: Heaton, Steven M Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1002/cti2.1115 License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins (MMHPs), thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element (ARE)-containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus (HPV), influenza (IAV), Ebola (EboV), dengue (DenV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles (MV), zika (ZikV) and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome (IAV) for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus (nCoV / COVID-19) outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED), tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity (AIFII) and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences (ConBio) conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time.

What are also discussed by the author?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What are other effects?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|[email protected], [email protected] Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand (Report 9). https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious- disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/. 5. Cereda, D. et al. The early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy. arXiv (2020). 6. Zhao, A. J. et al. Title: Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in patients of novel coronavirus disease 2019 Brief Title : Antibody responses in COVID-19 patients. (2020). 7. Jombart, T. et al. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. medRXiV 2020.03.10.20033761(2020)doi:10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761. 8. Zhang, J. et al. Age profile of susceptibility, mixing, and social distancing shape the dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China. (2020) doi:10.1101/2020.03.19.20039107. 9. Lourenco, J. et al. Fundamental principles of epidemic spread highlight the immediate need for large-scale serological surveys to assess the stage of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. doi:10.1101/2020.03.24.20042291 10. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Prospects 2019: Data Booket. ST/ESA/SER.A/424. (2019). 11. Verity, R. et al. Estimates ofthe severity of COVID-19 disease. Lancet Infect Dis in press, (2020). 12. Walker, P. G. T. et al. Report 12: The Global Impact of COVID-19 and Strategies for Mitigation and Suppression. 13. Fraser, C. Estimating Individual and Household Reproduction Numbers in an Emerging Epidemic. PL05 ONE 2, e758 (2007). 14. Cori, A., Ferguson, N. M., Fraser, C. & Cauchemez, S. A New Framework and Software to Estimate Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers During Epidemics. Am. J. Epidemiol. 178, 1505—1512 (20131 15. Nouvellet, P. et al. A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence. Epidemics 22, 29—35 (2018). 16. Cauchemez, 8., Valleron, A. J., Boelle, P. Y., Flahault, A. & Ferguson, N. M. Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data. Nature 452, 750—754 (2008). 17. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. On Age-Dependent Binary Branching Processes. Ann. Math. 55, 280— 295(19521 18. Bellman, R. & Harris, T. E. On the Theory of Age-Dependent Stochastic Branching Processes. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 34, 601—604 (1948). 19. Stan Development Team. 2018. The Stan Core Library, Version 2.18.0. http://mc-stan.org. 20. Bundesministerium. Coronavirus (COVID-19): Status quo — Schulen, Hochschulen, Universitaten und Forschungsinstitutionen. https://www.bmbwf.gv.at/Ministerium/Informationspflicht/corona/corona_status.html. 21. Henley, J. Coronavirus: EU states enact tough measures to stem spread. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-several-eu-states-ban-mass-events- after-italian-lockdown (2020). 22. Bundesministerium. Coronavirus - Aktuelle MaBnahmen. https://www.sozialministerium.at/Informationen-zum-Coronavirus/Coronavirus—Aktuelle- MaBnahmen.html (2020). 23. Federal Public Service. Coronavirus : Phase 2 maintained, transition to the federal phase and additional measures. https://www.info-coronavirus.be/en/2020/03/12/phase-2-maintained- transition-to-the-federal-phase-and-additional-measures/ (2020). 24. Belgium.be. Coronavirus: reinforced measures | Belgium.be. https://www.belgium.be/en/news/2020/coronavirus_reinforced_measures (2020). 25. Federal Public Service. Protect yourself and protect the others. https://www.info- coronavirus.be/en/2020/03/10/protect-yourself—and-protect-the-others/ (2020). 26. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Denmark. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Denmark. 27. Stephensen, Emma K|inker; Hansen, T. S. Danmark lukker ned: Her er regeringens nye tiltag. TV2 https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-03-11-danmark-lukker-ned-her-er-regeringens-nye-tiltag (20201 28. Politi. Nye tiltag mod covid-19. Politi https://politi.dk/coronavirus-i-danmark/seneste-nyt-fra- myndighederne/nye-tiltag-mod-covid-19 (2020). 29. Styrelsen for Patientsikkerhed. Indberetning om covid-19zlnformation om mulighed for p\aabud til enkeltpersoner (coronavirus/covid-19). https://stps.dk/da/ansvar-og- retningslinjer/vejledning/indberetning-om-covid-19/#. 30. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in France. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_France. 31. The Local. France bans gatherings of more than 100 people as coronavirus death toll rises - The Local. The Local https://www.thelocal.fr/20200313/france-bans-gatherings-of—over-100-people- to-fight-coronavirus-pandemic (2020). 32. Henley, Jon; Willsher, Kim; Kassam, A. Coronavirus: France imposes lockdown as EU calls for 30-day travel ban. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/16/coronavirus- spain-takes-over-private-healthcare-amid-more-european-lockdowns (2020). 33. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Germany. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany. 34. BMI. Coronavirus: Fragen und Antworten. Bundesministerium des Innern,fur Bau und Heimat https://web.archive.org/web/20200317073042/https://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/faqs/DE/the men/bevoelkerungsschutz/coronavirus/coronavirus-faqs.htmI#doc13738352bodyText7. 35. BBC News. Coronavirus: Germany tightens curbs and bans meetings of more than two. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51999080 (2020). 36. Bundesregierung. Kanzlerin trifft Regierungschefs der Lander Sozialkontakte vermeiden, Ausbreitung verlangsamen. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/themen/coronavirus/mpk- 1730186(2020) 37. Robert Koch Institut. Antworten auf haufig gestellte Fragen zum Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Robert Koch Institut https://web.archive.org/web/20200312004624/https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/FAQ/NCOV2019/F AQ_Liste.html (2020). 38. Ministero della Salute. Governo annuncia sospensione dell’attivita didattica dal 5 a|15 marzo. Ministero della Salute http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioVideoNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=ita liano&menu=multimedia&p=video&id=2052 (2020). 39. CNN. Italy prohibits travel and cancels all public events in its northern region. CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/europe/italy-coronavirus-lockdown-europe-intl/index.html (2020). 40. Attualita. Coronavirus: stop a pub, cinema, teatro e discoteche anche a Roma. Ecco cosa prevede il nuovo decreto. Roma Today https://www.romatoday.it/attualita/coronavirus-pub-cinema- teatri-locali-chiusi-nuovo-decreto.html (2020). 41. Gazzetta Ufficiale. DECRETO DEL PRESIDENTE DEL CONSIGLIO DEl MINISTRI. Gazzetta Ufflclale https://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2020/03/08/20A01522/sg (2020). 42. Helsedirektoratet. The Norwegian Directorate of Health has issued a decision to close schools and other educational institutions. Helsedirektoratet https://www.helsedirektoratet.no/nyheter/the- norwegian-directorate-of—health-has-issued-a-decision-to-close-schools-and-other-educationa|- institutions (2020). 43. Krostensen, Mette; Hellem-Hansen, Viktoria L.; Tandstad, B. Folkehelseinstituttet mener 23.000 kan vaere smittet. NRK https://www.nrk.no/norge/folkehelseinstituttet-mener-23.000-kan- vaere-smittet-1.14958149 (2020). 44. Norweigen Government. The Government is establishing clear quarantine and isolation rules. regjeringen.no https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/the-government-is-establishing-clear- quarantine-and-isolation-rules/id2693647/ (2020). 45. Wikipedia. 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Spain. Wikimedia Foundation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Spain. 46. Gabinete de Prensa. El Gobierno anuncia nuevas medidas para evitar la extension del nuevo coronavirus COVID-19. Gobierno de Espana https://www.mscbs.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa.do?id=4807 (2020). 47. Gabinete de Prensa. El Consejo Interterritorial del SNS acuerda medidas concretas para zonas con transmision comunitaria significativa de coronavirus. Gobierno de Espana https://www.mscbs.gob.es/gabinete/notasPrensa.do?id=4806 (2020). 48. Folkhalsomyndigheten. Larosaten och gymnasieskolor uppmanas nu att bedriva distansundervisning. Folkhdlsomyndigheten https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och- press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/mars/larosaten-och-gymnasieskolor-uppmanas-nu-att-bedriva- distansundervisning(2020). 49. The Local. Sweden bans large events to halt coronavirus spread. The Local https://www.theloca|.se/20200311/sweden-to-ban-large-public-gatherings-over-coronavirus (2020). 50. Radosevich. Stockholmers urged to work from home as COVID-19 community spread confirmed. Sveriges Radio https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=7430511(2020). 51. Folkhalsomyndigheten. Flera tecken p\aa samhallsspridning av covid-19 i Sverige. Folkhdlsomyndigheten https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och- press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/mars/flera-tecken-pa-samhallsspridning-av-covid-19-i-sverige/ (2020). 52. Bundesamt fur Gesendheit BAG. Bundesrat verscharft Massnahmen gegen das Coronavirus zum Schutz der Gesundheit und unterstUtzt betroffene Branchen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das-bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78437.html (20201 53. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Coronavirus: Bundesrat verbietet Ansammlungen von mehr als fUnf Personen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das- bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78513.html (2020). 54. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Coronavirus: Bundesrat erklart die «ausserordentliche Lage» und verscharft die Massnahmen. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das-bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78454.html (20201 55. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Neue Hygiene- und Verhaltensregeln zum Schutz gegen das neue Coronavirus. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das- bag/a ktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78304.html (2020). 56. UK Government, D. for E. Schools, colleges and early years settings to close. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close (2020). 57. UK Government. PM address to the nation on coronavirus: 23 March 2020. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-23-march- 2020(20201 58. Boycott-Owen, Mason; Bowman, Verity; Kelly-Linden, Jordan; Gartner, A. G. H. S. T. Coronavirus: Boris Johnson puts UK in lockdown as death tolls reaches 55. The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-latest- update-covid-19-death-toll-cases/ (2020). 59. BBC News. Coronavirus: People with fever or ’continuous’ cough told to self—isolate. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856 (2020).

When did Italy go into Iockdown?

Screening of FDA-Approved Drugs for Inhibitors of Japanese Encephalitis Virus Infection https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640845/ SHA: 1bd2f6497996fc0fccd8dffd7f84846d3d36f964 Authors: Wang, Shaobo; Liu, Yang; Guo, Jiao; Wang, Peilin; Zhang, Leike; Xiao, Gengfu; Wang, Wei Date: 2017-10-13 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.01055-17 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), an arthropod-borne flavivirus, is a major cause of acute viral encephalitis in humans. No approved drug is available for the specific treatment of JEV infections, and the available vaccines are not effective against all clinical JEV isolates. In the study described here, a high-throughput screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV was performed. Five hit drugs that inhibited JEV infection with a selective index of >10 were identified. The antiviral activities of these five hit drugs against other flavivirus, including Zika virus, were also validated. As three of the five hit drugs were calcium inhibitors, additional types of calcium inhibitors that confirmed that calcium is essential for JEV infection, most likely during viral replication, were utilized. Adaptive mutant analysis uncovered that replacement of Q130, located in transmembrane domain 3 of the nonstructural NS4B protein, which is relatively conserved in flaviviruses, with R or K conferred JEV resistance to manidipine, a voltage-gated Ca(2+) channel (VGCC) inhibitor, without an apparent loss of the viral growth profile. Furthermore, manidipine was indicated to protect mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain, while it abrogated the histopathological changes associated with JEV infection. This study provides five antiflavivirus candidates and identifies cytoplasmic calcium to be a novel antiviral target for the treatment of JEV infection. The findings reported here provide therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. IMPORTANCE No approved therapy for the treatment of Japanese encephalitis virus infection is currently available. Repurposing of approved drugs would accelerate the development of a therapeutic stratagem. In this study, we screened a library of FDA-approved drugs and identified five hit drugs, especially calcium inhibitors, exerting antiflavivirus activity that blocked viral replication. The in vivo efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were investigated with a mouse model of JEV infection, and the viral target was identified by generating an adaptive mutant. Text: F laviviruses are taxonomically classified in the genus Flavivirus and family Flaviviridae. These viruses comprise over 70 different pathogens, such as Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus (DENV), West Nile virus (WNV), and yellow fever virus (YFV). Most flaviviruses are arthropod borne and cause public health problems worldwide (1) . The development and usage of vaccines against some flaviviruses, such as JEV, YFV, and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), have decreased the rates of morbidity and mortality from infections caused by these viruses (2) ; however, flavivirus-induced diseases are still pandemic, and few therapies beyond intensive supportive care are currently available. Flaviviruses have an approximately 11-kb positive-stranded RNA genome containing a single open reading frame (ORF) flanked by untranslated regions (UTRs) at both termini. The ORF encodes three structural proteins, including the capsid (C), membrane (premembrane [prM] and membrane [M] ), and envelope (E), and seven nonstructural proteins (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) (3) . These seven nonstructural proteins participate in viral replication, virion assembly, and virus escape from immune surveillance. To date, no specific antivirals with activity against flaviviruses are available. To address this, we conducted a screen of a library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs. Since flaviviruses are similar in structure and pathogenesis, we first utilized JEV as the prototype to screen the drug library and subsequently validated the antiviral activities with ZIKV, WNV, and DENV type 2 (DENV-2). The hit drugs identified in this study offer potential new therapies for the treatment of flavivirus infection and disease. Screening of an FDA-approved drug library for inhibitors of JEV infection. Recombinant viral particles (RVPs) with the luciferase-reporting replicon enveloped by the JEV structural proteins were used to select inhibitors, with a focus on those that inhibit virus entry and replication, by a high-throughput screening (HTS) assay (4, 5) . The number of genomic RNA copies of RVP was determined to be 8.4 ϫ 10 6 copies/ml by using a standard curve generated with plasmids carrying the infectious clone. The HTS assay conditions, including the seeding cell density and RVP dose, were optimized to be 10,000 cells per 96-well plate and 20 l (16 copies/cell) RVP for the infective dose, respectively. Under the optimized conditions, the signal-to-basal (S/B) ratio, coefficient of variation (CV), and Z= factor were 38,374, 2.8%, and 0.89, respectively, which demonstrated that the assay was robust and suitable for the large-scale screening of compounds. A schematic of the HTS assay is depicted in Fig. 1B . After three rounds of screening, five hits with a selective index (SI; which is equal to the 50% cytotoxic concentration [CC 50 [/50% inhibitory concentration [IC 50 ]) of Ͼ10 were selected. The CC 50 values of the hit drugs exhibited in Fig. 1B were similar to those previously published for diverse cell systems but determined using different toxicity assays (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) . Three of the hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were dihydropyridine (DHP) voltage-gated Ca 2ϩ channel (VGCC) antagonists, while pimecrolimus is an inhibitor of inflammatory cytokine secretion and nelfinavir mesylate is an HIV-1 protease blocker. All five drugs exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV RVP infection (Fig. 1C) . To validate the antiviral effect, hit drugs were purchased from other commercial sources and tested. In the reconfirmation screen, all hit drugs showed antiviral and cytotoxic effects similar to those found in the primary screen. Validation of hit drugs. To verify the results obtained by the luciferase reporter assays, we also investigated the antiviral effect of the five hit drugs on wild-type JEV strain AT31. As expected from the HTS assay, all five drugs robustly inhibited virus production, with a reduction of approximately 4 to 5 log units at the highest concentration and an approximately 1-log-unit decrease with 2.5 M the drugs (Fig. 2B) . A sharp decrease in JEV RNA levels was also detected (Fig. 2C) . The attenuated RNA levels in the high-dose, middle-dose, and low-dose groups were all above 40%. In particular, in the manidipine-treated group, the inhibitory effect was at least 80% compared to that for the control, which showed a strong inhibition of viral replication. Consistent with the inhibition of virus replication and production, expression of the viral structural protein prM was hardly detectable following treatment with the drugs at the high concentration (Fig. 2D) . Overall, the results in Fig. 2 confirmed that the five hit drugs inhibited JEV infection in a dose-dependent manner in vitro. Drugs inhibit JEV infection during viral RNA synthesis. Because RVPs, which have a natural virus-like envelope on the outside and a replicon on the inside, permitted the quantification of JEV productive entry and replication, a time-of-addition experiment was performed to investigate whether the hit drugs blocked the entry step or the replication step. As shown in Fig. 3B , no suppression of luciferase activity by any of the hit drugs was observed when they were used as treatments before infection or during infection or as a virucide, suggesting that these drugs do not inhibit JEV infection either by inactivating the virus directly or by blocking JEV entry. However, these drugs exerted fully inhibitory effects when they were added at 1 h postinfection, suggesting that viral replication was the stage at which these drugs showed inhibitory activity. To confirm this suggestion, we investigated the inhibitory effects of these drugs on the JEV replicon. The highest concentration of manidipine and nelfinavir mesylate tested in baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cells was adjusted to 5 M and 10 M, respectively. It was shown that all five drugs inhibited JEV RNA synthesis in a dosedependent manner, while neither drug inhibited the initial translation of replicon RNA (5, 14) (Fig. 3C) , confirming that these drugs inhibited JEV infection at the stage of replication. Hit drugs exhibit broad-spectrum antiflavivirus activity. In order to determine whether the antiviral activity of the five hit drugs extended to other flaviviruses, we explored their antiviral effect against ZIKV. Similar to the findings for JEV, the ZIKV titer was decreased by multiple log units when ZIKV was treated with a high concentration of each of the drugs (Fig. 4A) . Moreover, ZIKV exhibited a higher sensitivity to the two calcium channels inhibitors manidipine and cilnidipine than JEV, with no plaque formation being observed at 10 M. Consistent with this result, sharp decreases in the level of replication of ZIKV RNA and the level of expression of viral protein were also detected (Fig. 4A) . Notably, treatment with 5 M manidipine produced a 95% inhibition of viral replication, translation, and viral yields. Taken together, these results indicate that the hit drugs could effectively inhibit ZIKV infection. Since these drugs exhibited their anti-JEV effects at the stage of viral replication, we further tested the effects against WNV and DENV-2 by using WNV and DENV-2 replicons. Similar to the results for JEV, a dose-dependent reduction in the level of WNV replication was observed with the drug treatments. The same phenotype was observed for DENV-2 for all drugs except nelfinavir mesylate, which showed no effect at the concentrations tested ( Fig. 4B and C). Together, these results indicate that the five hit drugs are excellent candidates for broad-spectrum antiflavivirus treatment. Antiviral effect of calcium inhibitors. Since three hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride, were DHP VGCC inhibitors, we asked whether other calcium antagonists could block JEV infection. To address this question, we employed four different classes of inhibitors. Verapamil, a prototype phenylalkylamine (PAA) VGCC inhibitor (15) , exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition of JEV on both African Green monkey kidney (Vero) and human hepatocellular carcinoma (Huh-7) cells (Fig. 5) , which was consistent with the inhibitory effects of the DHP inhibitors, suggesting that calcium channels play an important role in JEV infection. Cyclosporine and 2-aminobiphenyl borate (2-APB), which inhibit the efflux of Ca 2ϩ from the mitochondrial and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) pool, respectively (16) (17) (18) (19) , were also found to block JEV infection effectively. Similarly, treatment with the cell-permeant Ca 2ϩ chelator 1,2-bis-(o-aminophenoxy)-ethane-N,N,N=,N=-tetraacetic acid, tetraacetoxymethyl ester (BAPTA-AM), could also suppress JEV infection. Taken together, we concluded that intracellular Ca 2ϩ is essential for JEV infection and cytoplasmic calcium is a potent target for antiflavivirus treatment. Selection and characterization of manidipine-resistant JEV. To identify the viral target of the calcium channel inhibitor, we selected a manidipine-resistant virus by serially passaging JEV in the presence of manidipine. Viruses from passage 20 (P20) showed robust resistance compared with the wild type (WT) (Fig. 6A ). When JEV from P20 was treated with 5 M or 10 M manidipine, the viral titer was about 10-and 100-fold higher than that of the WT, respectively. Individual virus clones were isolated, and two isolates were randomly selected and amplified. An amino acid substitution was observed in two isolated clones, resulting in a glutamine (Q)-to-arginine (R) switch at amino acid position 130 in transmembrane domain 3 (TMD3) of NS4B, i.e., position 2401 of the translated polyprotein in the JEV infectious cDNA clone (Fig. 6B ). Sequence alignment of NS4B indicated that Q130 was conserved in all flaviviruses except YFV, which possessed a lysine at that position (Fig. 6B) . The conserved Q130 of NS4B may account for the sensitivity of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2 to manidipine, as described above (Fig. 4) , while YFV showed resistance to the drug (data not shown). To confirm that the Q130R mutation did confer manidipine resistance and to investigate the role of Q130 in NS4B function, we produced JEV clones with the Q130R, Q130K, Q130E, or Q130A mutation by introducing the desired mutations into the infectious cDNA clone and rescuing the mutant viruses. To investigate the biological properties of the mutant viruses, we first examined the growth kinetics of the rescued viruses. As shown in Fig. 6C , all mutant viruses had an accumulation of infectious virions and reached the highest titer at 60 h postinfection. Infection of the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses resulted in growth curves similar to the growth curve for the WT (Fig. 6C) , while the Q130E and Q130A mutants produced smaller amounts of viruses between 24 and 60 h. Analysis of the plaque morphology revealed that the plaques of the Q130R, Q130K, and Q130E mutants were similar to the plaques of the WT, whereas the plaques of the Q130A mutant were smaller than those of the WT. We next investigated the sensitivity of the four mutant viruses to manidipine. As shown in Fig. 6D , the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine. At a 10 M concentration, manidipine efficiently inhibited WT JEV infection and reduced the viral yields by approximately 4 log units, while the Q130R and Q130K mutant viruses were resistant to manidipine and the viral titer decreased less than 2 log units. The Q130A mutant virus demonstrated moderate resistance and a slightly higher Taken together, it could be concluded that Q130 not only is critical for conferring manidipine sensitivity but also is important for JEV replication. The replacement of glutamine with basic amino acids conferred resistance to manidipine without an apparent loss of growth. In vivo efficacy of manidipine. As manidipine exhibited the strongest inhibitory activities on JEV replication as well as ZIKV infection when its activities were compared with those of the five hit drugs (Fig. 2 and 4A) , we further examined the protective effect of manidipine against JEV-induced lethality in a mouse model. As anticipated, mice in the JEV-infected vehicle-treated group started to show symptoms, including limb paralysis, restriction of movement, piloerection, body stiffening, and whole-body tremor, from day 5 postinfection. Within 21 days postinfection, most mice in the JEV-infected group succumbed to the infection, with the mortality rate being 73% (4 out of 15 animals survived). Manidipine treatment following JEV infection reduced the mortality rate to 20% (12 out of 15 animals survived) (Fig. 7A ). Mice treated with manidipine alone or treated with manidipine and infected with JEV showed little abnormal behavior, similar to the findings for the mice in the vehicle-treated group. These results suggest that manidipine provided effective protection against JEVinduced mortality. To further relate these protective effects to the viral load and histopathological changes in the mouse brains, the viral titer was determined and mouse brain sections were collected and assayed at day 5 and day 21 postinfection, since mice started to show symptoms of JEV infection from day 5 postinfection and most of the surviving mice had recovered at day 21. The results indicated that, during the progression of the disease, manidipine treatment significantly reduced the viral load in infected mice compared to that in infected mice not receiving treatment, while no plaques formed in either the manidipine-or vehicle-treated group, and viral loads were undetectable in each group on day 21 postinfection (Fig. 7B) . As JEV was rapidly cleared from the blood after inoculation and was present in the lymphatic system during the preclinical phase, the effects of manidipine on infection of serum and the spleen were evaluated at earlier time points to detect whether the drug reduced the peripheral viral loads (20, 21) . As shown in Fig. 7C , manidipine had little effect on peripheral JEV infection, which indicated that manidipine protected the mice against JEV-induced lethality by decreasing the viral load in the brain. Similarly, apparent damage in the brain, including meningitis, perivascular cuffing, vacuolar degeneration, and glial nodules, was observed in the JEV-infected and vehicle-treated group on day 5 postinfection, while manidipine treatment remarkably alleviated these phenomena (Fig. 7D) . These results indicate that the alleviation of histopathological changes was accompanied by a reduction in the viral load as well as a reduction in the rate of mortality, further confirming the curative effects of manidipine on viral encephalitis. Among the five hit drugs, manidipine, cilnidipine, and benidipine hydrochloride were VGCC inhibitors. It has been well documented in the literature that Ca 2ϩ inhibitors serve to inhibit virus infection at the stage of either entry (15, 22) or replication (18) and even at the stage of budding (23) . To this end, we first reviewed all 21 calcium inhibitors included in the current library of FDA-approved drugs and found that, in addition to the four DHP VGCC inhibitors listed in Fig. 1B , two other calcium inhibitors, i.e., flunarizine dihydrochloride and lomerizine hydrochloride, were also identified to be primary candidates with levels of inhibition of Ͼ90%. Similarly, three calcium channel antagonists, nisoldipine, felodipine, and nicardipine hydrochloride, showed levels of inhibition of 75%, 72%, and 66%, respectively, in the primary screen. Together, 9 of the 21 calcium inhibitors in the library, accounting for nearly half of the calcium inhibitors, exhibited levels of flavivirus inhibition of greater than 50%, suggesting that calcium, especially the calcium channel, is a potential antiviral target. To address this, another type of VGCC inhibitor, verapamil, an FDA-approved drug not yet included in the drug library used in this study, was investigated. Likewise, a Ca 2ϩ chelator, BAPTA-AM, as well as the Ca 2ϩ inhibitors 2-APB and cyclosporine, targeting ER and the mitochondrial Ca 2ϩ channel, respectively, were employed to investigate the response of JEV infection to the decrease in intracellular Ca 2ϩ levels. In line with the activities of the three hit DHP VGCC inhibitor drugs, the additional Ca 2ϩ inhibitors exerted anti-JEV activity, which indicated that Ca 2ϩ is indispensable for JEV infection. Thus, Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might be utilized as effective treatments for flavivirus infection. As the hit drugs exerted full inhibitory activity when they were added posttreatment, we believe that Ca 2ϩ is important for flavivirus genome replication. Furthermore, selection and genetic analysis of drug-resistant viruses revealed that NS4B is the viral target of manidipine. NS4B is part of the viral replication complex and is supposed to anchor the viral replicase to the ER membrane (24) . Meanwhile, the N-terminal 125amino-acid domain of DENV NS4B was indicated to be responsible for inhibition of the immune response (25) . Notably, several structurally distinct compounds have been identified to inhibit flavivirus replication by intensively targeting the TMD of NS4B (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) (31) (32) . It is thus conceivable that inhibitors targeting TMD of NS4B would perturb its function, leading to the suppression of viral RNA replication. In this study, the replacement of Q130 of NS4B with a basic amino acid conferred the resistance effect without suppressing JEV replication, suggesting that position 130 could tolerate a basic amino acid and that the basic amino acid might be involved in the interplay of NS4B with host proteins rather than viral proteins. Moreover, the efficacy and toxicity of manidipine were monitored in vivo, with manidipine demonstrating effective antiviral activity with favorable biocompatibility. However, the dose used in this study was higher than the dose typically used clinically, representing one of the scenarios most commonly encountered in drug repurposing (33, 34) . As manidipine was approved for use for the long-term treatment of hypertension (35, 36) , pulse-dose treatment with manidipine over the shorter period of time required for the treatment of virus infection might be relatively safe. Moreover, use of a combination of manidipine with other Ca 2ϩ inhibitors might improve its therapeutic efficacy, reduce its toxicity, and reduce the risk of resistance development (37) (38) (39) . Besides the three VGCC inhibitors, two hit drugs, pimecrolimus and nelfinavir mesylate, showed equivalent inhibitory activities on the replication of JEV, ZIKV, WNV, and DENV-2. Although there has been no report on the use of pimecrolimus for the treatment of infectious diseases, we showed that it had a robust effect against JEV with an SI of Ͼ32. The maximum plasma concentration (C max ) of nelfinavir mesylate achieved with an adult dose was 3 to 4 g/ml (40) , which was comparable to the IC 50 reported here. Notably, nelfinavir mesylate was confirmed to inhibit herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1) and the replication of several other herpesviruses by interfering directly or indirectly with the later steps of virus formation, such as glycoprotein maturation or virion release, other than functioning in herpesviruses protease (41, 42) . Whether nelfinavir mesylate inhibits flavivirus by interference with the virus protease or by other off-target effects is unknown. Understanding of the mechanism of the antiflavivirus effects of these drugs might uncover novel targets of the drugs, providing further insight into the pathogenesis of flaviviruses. Above all, the findings reported here provide novel insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying flavivirus infection and offer new and promising therapeutic possibilities for combating infections caused by flaviviruses. Cells and viruses. BHK-21, SH-SY5Y (human neuroblastoma), Vero, and Huh-7 cells were cultured in Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (HyClone, Logan, UT, USA) supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum (Gibco, Grand Island, NY, USA). JEV strain AT31, the WNV replicon, and the DENV-2 replicon expressing Renilla luciferase (Rluc) were kindly provided by Bo Zhang, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), China. JEV replicon recombinant viral particles (RVPs) were generated as previously described (4, 5) . ZIKV strain H/PF/2013, kindly provided by the European Virus Archive Goes Global, was propagated and titrated in Vero cells. Optimization of HTS assay conditions. The cell density and RVP dose were optimized for the HTS assay. Vero cells at different densities (2,500 to 12,500 cells per well) were infected with from 1.25 to 20 l RVPs (1 to 16 copies per well). The appropriate cell density as well as the RVP dose was selected by comparing the S/B ratio, CV, and Z= values under different conditions as previously described (43) . Methyl-␤-cyclodextrin and dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) were used as positive and negative controls, respectively. HTS assay of an FDA-approved compound library. A library of 1,018 FDA-approved drugs was purchased from Selleck Chemicals (Houston, TX, USA). The compounds were stored as 10 mM stock solutions in DMSO at 4°C until use. The first round of the HTS assay was carried out as shown in Fig. 1A . The criteria used to identify the primary candidates were no apparent cytotoxicity and an average level of inhibition of Ͼ90% in duplicate wells. The criteria of dose-dependent inhibition and cell viability of Ͼ80% were applied for the reconfirmation screen. Furthermore, the CC 50 of each compound was calculated, and those compounds displaying SIs over 10 were considered hits in this study. Identification of antiviral effects of five hit drugs. The antiviral effects of the drugs were evaluated by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR), immunofluorescence assay (IFA), and plaque assay as previously reported (44) (45) (46) (47) . The experimental timeline is depicted in Fig. 2A . To ensure the effectiveness of the hit drugs in flavivirus replication, BHK-21 cells transfected with the JEV, WNV, or DENV-2 replicon were incubated with each drug at the concentrations indicated above, and the luciferase activities were determined 24 h, 48 h, or 72 h later, respectively. Time-of-addition experiment. To evaluate which stage of the JEV life cycle was inhibited by each hit, a time-of-addition experiment was performed as previously described (43) . Vero cells were infected with 20 l RVPs for 1 h (0 to 1 h). The test compounds were incubated with the cells for 1 h before infection (Ϫ1 to 0 h), during infection (0 to 1 h), and for 23 h postinfection (1 to 24 h) (Fig. 3A) . To exclude a possible direct inactivating effect of the drugs, RVPs were incubated with each drug at 37°C for 1 h, and the mixtures were diluted 25-fold to infect Vero cells. Twenty-four hours later, the luciferase activities were determined as described above (Fig. 3A) . Manidipine-resistant virus. Manidipine-resistant virus was generated by passaging of JEV on Vero cells in the presence of manidipine. Passages 1 to 10 used 5 M manidipine, and passages 11 to 20 used 10 M manidipine. As a control, WT virus was passaged in the presence of 2% DMSO in parallel. Passaging was terminated at passage 20, when no further improvement in resistance was detected. Two manidipine-resistant virus isolates were plaque purified and amplified in the presence of manidipine. Viral RNA was extracted, amplified, and purified for sequencing. An infectious cDNA clone of JEV, strain AT31 (pMWJEAT), kindly provided by T. Wakita, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute for Neuroscience, was used to recover WT and mutant viruses as described previously (4) . Virus titers and manidipine sensitivities were determined by plaque assay in Vero cells. Manidipine administration to JEV-infected mice. Adult female BALB/c mice (age, 4 weeks) were kept in the Laboratory Animal Center of Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China). The mice were randomly divided into four groups (30 mice per group): a JEV-infected and vehicle (2% Tween 80 plus 5% DMSO in phosphate-buffered saline [PBS])-treated group, a manidipine-treated group, a JEV-infected and manidipine-treated group, and a vehicle-treated group. For infection, mice were infected intraperitoneally with 5 ϫ 10 6 PFU of JEV strain AT31. For the manidipine and vehicle treatments, mice were injected intraperitoneally with 25 mg/kg of body weight manidipine or PBS with 2% Tween 80 and 5% DMSO, respectively. Treatments were administered twice a day for the first 2 days and then consecutively administered once a day for up to 21 days. Five mice from each group were sacrificed on days 1, 3, and 5 postinfection. Serum, spleen tissue, and brain tissue samples were collected for viral titer determination and histopathology investigation. Fifteen mice were monitored daily for morbidity and mortality. The mice that showed neurological signs of disease were euthanized according to the Regulations for the Administration of Affairs Concerning Experimental Animals in China. The protocols were reviewed and approved by the Laboratory Animal Care and Use Committee at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS (Wuhan, China).

What measure is used in high-throughput screening to identify potential antiviral compounds?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

What study is reported in this report?

Viruses Causing Gastroenteritis: The Known, The New and Those Beyond https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4776197/ SHA: f7b30ee89775bc82607cc6bc87feb5934b47625f Authors: Oude Munnink, Bas B.; van der Hoek, Lia Date: 2016-02-19 DOI: 10.3390/v8020042 License: cc-by Abstract: The list of recently discovered gastrointestinal viruses is expanding rapidly. Whether these agents are actually involved in a disease such as diarrhea is the essential question, yet difficult to answer. In this review a summary of all viruses found in diarrhea is presented, together with the current knowledge about their connection to disease. Text: The gastrointestinal tract is a vulnerable organ for infections as there is constant contact with the outside, mainly via the oral route. Inflammation of the stomach and the intestines (gastroenteritis) can cause nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. Gastroenteritis is responsible for two to three million deaths each year, making it one of the most common causes of mortality [1] . Mainly children in developing countries, but also immuno-compromised individuals in developed countries, suffer from diarrhea. While bacterial and parasitic gastrointestinal infections are declining as a result of proper disposal of sewage and safe drinking water, viral gastroenteritis is not declining in developing countries [2] . In the developed world, viruses are already the most common pathogens causing diarrhea [3] . Although viruses infecting humans had already been described since 1901 [4] and viruses were suspected to play a role in diarrhea, it lasted until 1972, when the first virus causing gastroenteritis (norovirus) was identified in an outbreak of diarrhea in Norwalk (California, United States) [5] . Shortly after the discovery of norovirus several other viruses causing gastroenteritis were discovered: rotavirus in epithelial cells of children with gastroenteritis [6] , astrovirus in infantile diarrhea cases [7] , enteric adenoviruses in the feces of children with acute diarrhea [8] , and sapovirus during an outbreak of gastroenteritis in an orphanage in Sapporo, Japan [9] . All these viruses spread via the fecal-oral route through person-to-person transmission and are described in more detail below. Noroviruses are part of the family Caliciviridae and outbreaks of norovirus gastroenteritis have been reported in cruise ships, health care settings, schools, and in the military, but norovirus is also responsible for around 60% of all sporadic diarrhea cases (diarrhea cases where an enteropathogen could be found), reviewed in the literature [10, 11] . The pathogenesis of norovirus infection has been tested in vivo. Filtrated norovirus was given to healthy volunteers after which most of them developed diarrhea [12] . Culturing of the virus, however, has been a problem since its discovery, yet one study has recently described the cultivation of norovirus in B cells, and has revealed that co-factors, such as histo-blood antigen expressing enteric bacteria, are probably needed before enteric viruses can be cultured in vitro [13] . Sapoviruses are also members of the Caliciviridae. There are five human genogroups of sapovirus described [14] which account for 2.2%-12.7% of all gastroenteritis cases around the globe [14, 15] . Sapovirus outbreaks occur throughout the year and can be foodborne [16] . For sapoviruses it has been described that the virus was not found before onset of an outbreak, and that it was found in 95% of the patients during an outbreak, while it declined to 50% after an outbreak, indicating that the virus introduces disease in a naturally infected host [17] . Rotavirus infection is the most common cause of viral gastroenteritis among children; however, parents of infected children also often become ill and as a result rotavirus is the second most common cause of gastroenteritis in adults [18] . Studies in human volunteers have shown that infection with rotavirus causes diarrhea, results in shedding of the virus and a rise in antibody anti-virus titer after infection [19] . Additionally, astroviruses infections are common, accounting for about 10% of all sporadic diarrhea cases [20] . Astrovirus has been isolated from diseased people, filtrated and administered to healthy individuals after which in some of the volunteers diarrheal disease was observed and astrovirus was shed in their stools [21] . The virus can replicate in human embryonic kidney cells and was detected by electron microscopy (EM) [21] . Adenoviruses are responsible for around 1.5%-5.4% of the diarrhea cases in children under the age of 2 years, reviewed in the literature [22] . Of the 57 identified adenovirus types [23] , only adenoviruses type 40 and 41 are associated with diarrhea [24] . Next to these two types, adenovirus type 52 can also cause gastroenteritis [25] , although it has been argued whether type 52 is actually a separate type since there is not sufficient distance to adenovirus type 41 [26] . Adenoviruses can generally be propagated in cell lines; however, enteric adenovirus 40/41 are difficult to culture, reviewed in the literature [27] . In the 1980s and 1990s some viral agents were identified for which the direct association with disease is less clear. Aichi viruses are members of the Picornaviridae identified in fecal samples of patients with gastroenteritis [28] . Aichi virus infection has been shown to elicit an immune response [29] . Since their discovery, two case-control studies were performed, but, although both studies only found Aichi virus in stools of diarrheic patients, the prevalence of Aichi virus (0.5% and 1.8%) was too low to find a significant association with diarrhea [30, 31] . In immuno-compromised hosts the virus is found in higher quantities and is not associated with diarrhea [32] . Toroviruses, part of the Coronaviridae, were first identified in 1984 in stools of children and adults with gastroenteritis [33] . Torovirus infection is associated with diarrhea [34] and is more frequently observed in immuno-compromised patients and in nosocomial infected individuals [34] . Retrospective analysis of nosocomial viral gastroenteritis in a pediatric hospital revealed that in 67% of the cases torovirus could be detected [35] . However, only a limited number of studies report the detection of torovirus and therefore the true pathogenesis and prevalence of this virus remains elusive. Picobirnaviruses belong to the Picobirnaviridae and were first detected in the feces of children with gastroenteritis [36] . Since the initial discovery, the virus has been detected in fecal samples of several animal species, and it has been shown that the viruses are genetically highly diverse without a clear species clustering, reviewed in the literature [37] . This high sequence diversity has also been observed within particular outbreaks of gastroenteritis [38, 39] , limiting the likelihood that picobirnaviruses are actually causing outbreaks, as no distinct single source of infection can be identified. In 1907 the first tissue culture system was developed which was regarded as the golden standard for virus detection for a long time, reviewed in the literature [40] . In the 1930's serology and electron microscopy were introduced which boosted the discovery of new viruses. During these years, these methods developed fruitfully but viruses infecting the gastrointestinal tract were especially difficult to culture. Throughout the last several decades, several DNA-based techniques have been developed for virus discovery that boosted the identification of novel viruses in stool samples. The four most used methods are: 1. Universal primer-PCR [41] ; 2. Random priming-based PCR [42] ; 3. Virus Discovery cDNA, Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (VIDISCA) [43] ; and 4. Sequence-Independent Single Primer Amplification (SISPA) [44] . Universal primer-PCR is a virus discovery technique that uses universal primers designed on conserved parts of a specific viral family, which can be used to detect novel variants of this viral family. Random priming-based PCR is a technique that randomly amplifies all nucleic acids present in samples, after which the resulting PCR products can be cloned and sequenced. SISPA and VIDISCA are virus discovery techniques that are based on digestion with restriction enzymes, after which adaptors can be ligated. These methods have been successful in the discovery of novel viruses, but there are some limitations. Universal primers are useful for discovering novel viruses of a chosen family, but the primers, based on our present knowledge of the viral family, may not fit on all unknown variants. Random priming PCR, SISPA and VIDISCA are sequence independent amplification techniques. The disadvantage of random priming PCR, SISPA and VIDISCA is that the virus needs to be present at a high concentration, while the host background DNA and/or RNA should be minimal and preferably not complex. In recent years, sequence independent amplification techniques improved considerably by coupling these techniques to next-generation sequencing platforms and as a result several novel viruses have been described in gastroenteritis cases, such as cosavirus [45] , Saffold virus [46] , klassevirus/salivirus [47, 48] , polyomavirus [49] , bufavirus [50] , tusavirus [51] , and recovirus [52] . Although these viruses are found in individuals with diarrhea, for most of them the degree of circulation (prevalence) and the ability to cause morbid conditions or disease (pathogenesis) remains to be determined, as described below (also see Table 1 ). Only found in low prevalence; **: Only limited data is available about this virus; ***: Antibodies against astrovirus HMO-C were observed whereas no antibodies against astrovirus HMO-A were found (HMO = human-mink-ovine-like astrovirus); -No published data available;ˆPicobirnavirus, tusavirus and recovirus were identified in the gastrointestinal tract after next-generation sequencing, but no information regarding antibody response or association with diarrhea is available. In the last decade, two novel clades of astroviruses have been discovered in stool samples from patients with diarrhea that are genetically far distinct from the classical astroviruses. The first clade consists of the VA-1, VA-2, VA-3, VA-4, and VA-5 astroviruses, which are genetically related to feline and porcine astroviruses, while the second clade consists of the MLB1, MLB2 and MLB3 astroviruses and form a separate cluster [55, 57, [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] . For these novel clades the pathogenesis remains to be determined since the viruses have been identified in patients with and without diarrhea, and in some studies the viruses were associated with diarrhea whilst in others no association could be found [55] [56] [57] . In addition an antibody response was observed against some but not all novel astrovirus types [54, 58] . Recently, astrovirus MLB2 has also been detected in blood plasma of a febrile child [79] and astrovirus VA1 in a frontal cortex biopsy specimen from a patient with encephalitis [80] , suggesting that astrovirus infection may not be limited to the gastrointestinal tract. In 2008, Saffold virus was detected in a stool sample from a pediatric patient with fever of unknown origin [46] . Although Saffold virus type 3 was cultured on a human epithelial cervical carcinoma (HeLa) cell line, cytopathic effects were observed and neutralizing antibodies have been found in serum samples [59] , subsequent case-control studies showed that the virus was not significantly associated with diarrhea [53, 60, 61] . Additionally, in 2008 cosavirus was identified in a patient with diarrhea [45] . However, a case-control study showed that this virus was also detected in a substantial amount of individuals without diarrhea and is not associated with diarrhea [32, 62, 63] . Klassevirus/salivirus was identified in 2009 in two fecal samples from infants with gastrointestinal disorders [47, 48] . In two studies the detection of this virus was associated with diarrhea [48, 53] , while in another study no association with disease was found [65] . Serological evidence of human klassevirus infection was obtained, suggesting that the virus infects human cells [64] . With the use of next-generation sequencing techniques, three novel polyomaviruses were also identified in human fecal samples. MW polyomavirus was identified in the stool of a healthy child from Malawi in 2012 [49] , and in the same year MX polyomavirus was found in stool samples of patients with and without diarrhea from Mexico, United States and Chili [68] . One year later, STL polyomavirus was found in the stool of a healthy child from Malawi [71] . An antibody response against MX polyomavirus [66] and MW polyomavirus [69] was observed, although MW polyomavirus [67] and STL polyomavirus [70] were not significantly associated with diarrhea in two independent case-control studies. Bufavirus is a member of the Parvoviridae and was first described in 2012 [50] . Two case-controls in Thailand and in Turkey showed that the virus was only found in patients with diarrhea and not in controls [72, 73] ; however, because of the low prevalence (respectively 0.3% in Thailand and 1.4% in Turkey), no significant association with disease was found. Tusavirus, another recently described member of the Parvoviridae, was identified in the feces of a child from Tunisia with unexplained diarrhea [51] , and thus far this is the only study describing this virus. Recovirus is a novel member of the Caliciviridae and was found in diarrhea samples from Bangladesh [52] . Similar to tusavirus, this is the only study describing this virus thus far. The identification of the above-mentioned novel viruses certainly increased our knowledge about viruses that can be found in the gastrointestinal tract of humans, yet it is unknown how many of these novel viruses are actually enteropathogens. Human stool contains a wide variety of viruses which can be derived from different hosts: Besides genuine human viruses, plant dietary viruses [32, 81] and animal dietary viruses [82] can also be found in human stool, as well as bacteriophages and viruses infecting protozoa [32] . Even viruses derived from other parts of the body can be found in fecal samples, such as the John Cunningham Polyoma virus originating from the kidney ending up in feces via urine [83] , and rhinoviruses [84] , bocaviruses [85] and coronaviruses [86] originating from the respiratory tract and probably swallowed. Furthermore, viruses infecting blood cells such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 can also be detected in fecal samples [87] . Therefore, once a novel virus has been identified in human stool samples it is does not indicate that this virus is replicating in human intestinal cells. Koch recognized as early as 1891 that associating the presence of a certain agent with a certain disease is complex, and he therefore postulated guidelines that should be followed before an agent can be classified as a pathogen [88] . His postulates can be summarized in three points: (1) The microbe occurs in every case of the disease in question and under circumstances which can account for the pathological changes and clinical course of the disease; (2) the microbe occurs in no other disease as a fortuitous and nonpathogenic parasite; and (3), after being fully isolated from the body and repeatedly grown in pure culture, the microbe can induce the disease anew. If a microbe has fulfilled these three postulates it can be stated that "the occurrence of the microbe in the disease can no longer be accidental, but in this case no other relation between it and the disease except that the microbe is the cause of the disease can be considered". For enteric viruses, however, these postulates are not applicable. Firstly, the enteric viruses are not easily cultured [89] [90] [91] , and, secondly, prolonged sheading of viral agents and asymptomatic infection have been described [92] , reviewed in the literature [93] . Although attempts have been made to adjust the Koch's postulates specifically for viruses and the current methodologies deployed [94] [95] [96] , fulfilling these postulates is still not feasible on most occasions due to the lack of an efficient cell culture system, difficulties in antigen synthesis and high levels of viral genetic diversity within viral groups, reviewed in the literature [97] . Several approaches have been made to develop a methodology that adds more significance to the discovery of a novel virus. One approach is based on the enrichment of immunogenic viruses before next-generation sequencing by making use of autologous antibody capture prior to sequencing. This method was tested and validated on several fecal samples containing adenovirus, sapovirus and norovirus, and has shown to enrich immunogenic viruses, while plant viruses and bacteriophages were not enriched after antibody capture [98] . Another method to enrich for relevant viruses prior to next-generation sequencing is the so-called virome capture sequencing platform for vertebrate viruses (VirCapSeq-VERT) which uses~2 million probes which cover the genomes of all members of the viral taxa known to infect vertebrates [99] . However, both methods have limitations: For the antibody capture method, viruses need to be present in high viral loads, and convalescent blood, serum or plasma needs to be available. A disadvantage of the VirCapSeq-VERT technique is that completely novel viruses, e.g., viruses from a novel virus family, will not be identified. The most straightforward method to demonstrate association with disease is using case-control studies. In order to perform such studies, matched stool samples have to be collected in case and control groups from the same geographical locations in the same period of the year. Additionally, whereas in recent years case-control studies have been performed using conventional real-time PCRs (RT-PCR), in the future, sequence independent next-generation sequencing techniques can be used for such case-control studies. Since it allows detection of virtually all nucleic acids, next-generation sequencing has several advantages compared to specific RT-PCRs. Next-generation sequencing prevents the necessity to perform numerous RT-PCRs to screen for all viruses suspected to be associated with disease, and novel variants of currently known viral families or novel virus species can be detected which can be particularly beneficial if only few reference genomes are available. The major benefit of such a database is that in the immediate future the most important question can be answered if a novel virus is identified in diarrhea cases: Is the virus likely to cause disease? In conclusion, the long list of viruses identified in the gastrointestinal tract is most probably not final yet. It is to be expected that several novel viruses will be described in the near future, since detection of these agents using the current next-generation sequence technologies is no longer a difficulty. Therefore, adding relevance to the discovery of novel viruses should be the main goal for future studies.

Which types of adenovirus are associated with diarrhea?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is a drawback of Ad5 vector?

Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0250_article Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 Research Pablo Martinez De Salazar1Comments to Author , René Niehus, Aimee Taylor1, Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee, and Marc LipsitchComments to Author Author affiliations: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA Suggested citation for this article Abstract Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is critical. We used air travel volume estimates from Wuhan, China, to international destinations and a generalized linear regression model to identify locations that could have undetected imported cases. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from other locations as the virus spreads and more information on importations and transmission becomes available. Early detection and appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for transmission in all locations. A novel coronavirus, later named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, capital of Hubei Province, China, where cases were first confirmed (1). During December 2019–February 2020, the number of confirmed cases increased drastically. Model estimates suggested that >75,000 persons were infected by January 25, 2020, and the epidemic had a doubling time of ≈6 days (2). By the end of January 2020, travel restrictions were implemented for Wuhan and neighboring cities. Nonetheless, the virus spread from Wuhan to other cities in China and outside the country. By February 4, 2020, a total of 23 locations outside mainland China reported cases, 22 of which reported imported cases; Spain reported a case caused by secondary transmission (3). Most cases imported to other locations have been linked to recent travel history from China (3), suggesting that air travel plays a major role in exportation of cases to locations outside of China. To prevent other cities and countries from becoming epicenters of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, substantial targeted public health interventions are required to detect cases and control local spread of the virus. We collected estimates of air travel volume from Wuhan to 194 international destinations. We then identified 49 countries that had a score of >49.2/100 on category 2, Early Detection and Reporting of Epidemics of Potential International Concern, of the Global Health Security (GHS) Index (4). We assumed these locations would be proficient at detecting SARS-CoV-2 and reporting confirmed imported cases, which we refer to as imported-and-reported cases. We ran a generalized linear regression model on this subset; based on the results, we generated predictions for the remainder of the sample. Using these predictions, we identified locations that might not be detecting imported cases. Methods To identify locations reporting fewer than predicted imported SARS-CoV-2 infected cases, we fit a model to data from 49 locations outside mainland China with high surveillance capacity according to the GHS Index (4). Among these, 17 had high travel connectivity to Wuhan and 32 have low connectivity to Wuhan. We considered locations to be countries without any position on territorial claims. We performed a Poisson regression by using the cumulative number of imported-and-reported SARS-CoV-2 cases in these 49 countries and the estimated number of daily airline passengers from the Wuhan airport. We then compared predictions from this model with imported-and-reported cases across 194 locations from the GHS Index, excluding China as the epicenter of the outbreak. The model requires data on imported-and-reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, daily air travel volume, and surveillance capacity. We obtained data on imported-and-reported cases aggregated by destination from the World Health Organization technical report issued February 4, 2020 (3). We assumed a case count of 0 for locations not listed. We used February 4 as the cutoff for cumulative imported-and-reported case counts because exported cases from Hubei Province dropped rapidly after this date (3), likely because of travel restrictions for the province implement on January 23. We defined imported-and-reported cases as those with known travel history from China; of those, 83% had a travel history from Hubei Province and 17% traveled from unknown locations in China (3). We excluded reported cases likely caused by transmission outside of China or cases in which the transmission source was still under investigation (3). In addition, we excluded Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan from our model because locally transmitted and imported cases were not disaggregated in these locations. We obtained data on daily air travel from a network-based modeling study (S. Lai et al., unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479External Link) that reported monthly air travel volume estimates for the 27 locations outside mainland China that are most connected to Wuhan. These estimates were calculated from International Air Travel Association data from February 2018, which includes direct and indirect flight itineraries from Wuhan. For these 27 locations, estimated air travel volumes are >6 passengers/day. We assumed that travel volumes for locations not among the most connected are censored by a detection limit. We used a common method of dealing with censored data from environmental sampling (5), or metabolomics (6), to set the daily air travel volume to half the minimum previously reported. Therefore, we used 3 passengers/day for estimated travel volumes for the 167 locations from the GHS Index not listed by Lai et al. We tested the robustness of our results by using a set of alternative values of 0.1, 1, and 6 passengers/day for the censored data. We defined high surveillance locations as those with a GHS Index for category 2 above the 75th quantile. We assessed the number of high surveillance locations, those with 0 imported-and-reported cases, and low surveillance locations, those with case counts >1 (Table). For our model, we assumed that the cumulative imported-and-reported case counts across 49 high surveillance locations follow a Poisson distribution from the beginning of the epidemic until February 4, 2020. Then the expected case count is linearly proportional to the daily air travel volume in the following formula:where i denotes location, Ci denotes the imported-and-reported case count in a location, λi denotes the expected case count in a location, β denotes the regression coefficient, and xi denotes the daily air travel volume of a location. The Poisson model assumes cases are independent and that the variance is equal to the expected case count. Imported-and-reported cases likely meet the independence assumption because the value excludes cases with local transmission. We also checked the robustness of our results by using an over dispersed model with a negative binomial likelihood. We computed the p value of the overdispersion parameter as shown in Gelman and Hill (7). Thumbnail of Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in number of persons/day. No. cases refers to possible undetected imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line indicates the expected imported-and-reported case counts for locations. Dashed lines represent 95% prediction interval bounds smoothed for all locations. Purple dots indicate location Figure 1. Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in number of... We used R version 3.6.1 (https://www.r-project.orgExternal Link) to compute , the maximum likelihood estimate of β, and the expected imported-and-reported case count given high surveillance (Figure 1). We also computed the 95% prediction interval (PI) bounds under this model of high surveillance for all 194 values of daily air travel volume (Figure 1). First, we generated a bootstrapped dataset by sampling n locations with replacement among high surveillance locations. Then, we reestimated β by using the bootstrapped dataset. Finally, we simulated imported-and-reported case counts for all 194 locations under our model by using the estimate of β from the bootstrapped dataset. We repeated the 3 steps 50,000 times to generate 50,000 simulated imported-and-reported case counts for each of the locations computed to the lower and upper PI bounds (PI 2.5%–97.5%). We smoothed the 95% PI bounds by using ggplot2 in R (8). We fit the imported-and-reported case counts of the 49 high surveillance locations to the model and plotted these alongside 145 locations with low surveillance capacity (Figure 1). We noted some overlap between high and low surveillance locations (Figure 1). Thumbnail of Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume measured in number of persons/day. No. cases refers to possible undetected imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line shows the expected imported-and-reported case counts based on our model fitted to high surveillance locations, indicated by purple dots. Dashed lines indicate the 95% pr Figure 2. Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume measured in... To assess the robustness of our results we ran 8 additional regression analyses by implementing a series of changes to the analysis. The changes included the following: set the daily air travel volume to 0.1, 1, or 6 passengers/day for locations not listed by Lai et al. (unpub. data, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479External Link) (Figure 2, panels A–C); removed all locations not listed by Lai et al. before fitting (Figure 2, panel D); defined high surveillance locations by using a more lenient GHS Index criterion, 50th quantile (Figure 2, panel E), and a more stringent criterion, 95th quantile (Figure 2, panel F); excluded Thailand from the model because it is a high-leverage point (Figure 2, panel G); or used an overdispersed Poisson likelihood with a negative-binomial likelihood (Figure 2, panel H). We provide code for these analyses on GitHub (https://github.com/c2-d2/cov19flightimportExternal Link). Top Results We found that daily air travel volume positively correlates with imported-and-reported case counts of SARS-CoV-2 infection among high surveillance locations (Figure 1). We noted that increasing flight volume by 31 passengers/day is associated with 1 additional expected imported-and-reported case. In addition, Singapore and India lie above the 95% PI in our model; Singapore had 12 more imported-and-reported cases (95% PI 6–17 cases) than expected and India had 3 (95% PI 1–3 cases) more than expected. Thailand has a relatively high air travel volume compared with other locations, but it lies below the 95% PI, reporting 16 (95% PI 1–40 cases) fewer imported-and-reported cases than expected under the model. Indonesia lies below the PI and has no imported-and-reported cases, but the expected case count is 5 (95% PI 1–10 cases) in our model. Across all 8 robustness regression analyses, we consistently observed that Singapore lies above the 95% PI and Thailand and Indonesia lie below (Figure 2). India remains above the 95% PI in all robustness analyses except when we used the more stringent GHS Index, 95th quantile, for fitting; then India lies on the upper bound of the 95% PI (Figure 2, panel F). Top Discussion We aimed to identify locations with likely undetected or underdetected imported cases of SARS-CoV-2 by fitting a model to the case counts in locations with high surveillance capacity and Wuhan-to-location air travel volumes. Our model can be adjusted to account for exportation of cases from locations other than Wuhan as the outbreak develops and more information on importations and self-sustained transmission becomes available. One key advantage of this model is that it does not rely on estimates of incidence or prevalence in the epicenter of the outbreak. Also, we intentionally used a simple generalized linear model. The linearity of the expected case count means that we have only 1 regression coefficient in the model and no extra parameters. The Poisson likelihood then captures the many 0-counts observed for less highly connected locations but also describes the slope between case-count and flight data among more connected locations. We believe this model provides the most parsimonious phenomenologic description of the data. According to our model, locations above the 95% PI of imported-and-reported cases could have higher case-detection capacity. Locations below the 95% PI might have undetected cases because of expected imported-and-reported case counts under high surveillance. Underdetection of cases could increase the international spread of the outbreak because the transmission chain could be lost, reducing opportunities to deploy case-based control strategies. We recommend rapid strengthening of outbreak surveillance and control efforts in locations below the 95% PI lower bound, particularly Indonesia, to curb potential local transmission. Early detection of cases and implantation of appropriate control measures can reduce the risk for self-sustained transmission in all locations. Top Dr. De Salazar is a research fellow at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, working on multiscale statistical models of infectious diseases within host, population, and metapopulation models. His research interests include diagnostic laboratory methods and public health response. Top Acknowledgments We thank Pamela Martinez, Nicholas Jewel, and Stephen Kissler for valuable feedback. This work was supported by US National Institute of General Medical Sciences (award no. U54GM088558). P.M.D was supported by the Fellowship Foundation Ramon Areces. A.R.T. and C.O.B. were supported by a Maximizing Investigator’s Research Award (no. R35GM124715-02) from the US National Institute of General Medical Sciences. The authors are solely responsible for this content and it does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences or the National Institutes of Health. Declaration of interests: Marc Lipsitch has received consulting fees from Merck. All other authors declare no competing interests. Top References Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020;579:270–3. Wu JT, Leung K, Leung GM. Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study. Lancet. 2020;395:689–97. DOIExternal LinkPubMedExternal Link World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report—15, 4 Feb 2020 [cited 2020 Feb 14]. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200204-sitrep-15-ncov.pdfExternal Link Nuclear Threat Initiative and Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Global health security index [cited 2020 Feb 14]. https://www.ghsindex.orgExternal Link US Environmental Protection Agency. Data quality assessment: statistical methods for practitioners EPA QA/G9-S [cited 2020 Feb 14]. Washington: The Agency; 2006. https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/documents/g9s-final.pdfExternal Link Lamichhane S, Sen P, Dickens AM, Hyötyläinen T, Orešič M. An overview of metabolomics data analysis: current tools and future perspectives. In: Jaumot J, Bedia C, Tauler R, editors. Comprehensive analytical chemistry. Vol. 82. Amsterdam: Elsevier; 2018. p. 387–413. Gelman A, Hill J. Analytical methods for social research. In: Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2006. p. 235–236. Wickham H. ggplot2: elegant graphics for data analysis. New York: Springer; 2016. Top Figures Figure 1. Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in... Figure 2. Analyses of imported-and-reported cases and daily air travel volume using a model to predict locations with potentially undetected cases of severe acute respiratory virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Air travel volume... Table Table. Surveillance capacity of locations with and without imported-and-reported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, 2020 Top Suggested citation for this article: De Salazar PM, Niehus R, Taylor A, O’Flaherty Buckee C, Lipsitch M. Identifying locations with possible undetected imported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 cases by using importation predictions. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jul [date cited]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200250 DOI: 10.3201/eid2607.200250 Original Publication Date: 3/24/2020 1These authors contributed equally to this article. Table of Contents – Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020

What is the acronym SARS-CoV-2?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

What would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics ?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

What can also play a role?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What is the current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations?

Development of an ELISA-array for simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3305475/ SHA: ef2b8f83d5a3ab8ae35e4b51fea6d3ed9eb49122 Authors: Kang, Xiaoping; Li, Yuchang; Fan, Li; Lin, Fang; Wei, Jingjing; Zhu, Xiaolei; Hu, Yi; Li, Jing; Chang, Guohui; Zhu, Qingyu; Liu, Hong; Yang, Yinhui Date: 2012-02-27 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-9-56 License: cc-by Abstract: Japanese encephalitis virus(JEV), tick-borne encephalitis virus(TBEV), and eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) can cause symptoms of encephalitis. Establishment of accurate and easy methods by which to detect these viruses is essential for the prevention and treatment of associated infectious diseases. Currently, there are still no multiple antigen detection methods available clinically. An ELISA-array, which detects multiple antigens, is easy to handle, and inexpensive, has enormous potential in pathogen detection. An ELISA-array method for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses was developed in this study. Seven monoclonal antibodies against five encephalitis-associated viruses were prepared and used for development of the ELISA-array. The ELISA-array assay is based on a "sandwich" ELISA format and consists of viral antibodies printed directly on 96-well microtiter plates, allowing for direct detection of 5 viruses. The developed ELISA-array proved to have similar specificity and higher sensitivity compared with the conventional ELISAs. This method was validated by different viral cultures and three chicken eggs inoculated with infected patient serum. The results demonstrated that the developed ELISA-array is sensitive and easy to use, which would have potential for clinical use. Text: Japanese encephalitis virus(JEV), tick-borne encephalitis virus(TBEV), eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), sindbis virus(SV), and dengue virus(DV) are arboviruses and cause symptoms of encephalitis, with a wide range of severity and fatality rates [1] . Establishment of an accurate and easy method for detection of these viruses is essential for the prevention and treatment of associated infectious diseases. Currently, ELISA and IFA are the methods which are clinically-available for the detection of encephalitis viral antigens, but they could only detect one pathogen in one assay [2, 3] . There are a variety of different methods available for identifying multiple antigens in one sample simultaneously, such as two-dimensional gel electrophoresis , protein chip, mass spectrometry, and suspension array technology [4] [5] [6] . However, the application of these techniques on pathogen detection is still in an early phase, perhaps due to the complicated use and high cost. Antibody arrays for simultaneous multiple antigen quantification are considered the most accurate methods [7] [8] [9] [10] . Liew [11] validated one multiplex ELISA for the detection of 9 antigens; Anderson [12] used microarray ELISA for multiplex detection of antibodies to tumor antigens in breast cancer, and demonstrated that ELISA-based array assays had the broadest dynamic range and lowest sample volume requirements compared with the other assays. However, the application of ELISA-based arrays is currently limited to detection of cancer markers or interleukins; no detection of pathogens has been reported. In this study, we developed an ELISA-based array for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis viruses. Seven specific monoclonal antibodies were prepared against five encephalitis viruses and used to establish an ELISA-array assay. The assay was validated using cultured viruses and inoculated chicken eggs with patient sera. The results demonstrated that this method combined the advantage of ELISA and protein array (multiplex and ease of use) and has potential for the identification of clinical encephalitis virus. Monoclonal antibodies were prepared from hybridoma cell lines constructed by Prof. Zhu et al. Purification was conducted by immunoaffinity chromatography on protein G affinity sepharose [13] . Specific monoclonal antibodies (4D5 against JEV, 2B5 against TBEV, 1F1 against SV, 2B8 against serotype 2 DV, 4F9 against serotype 4 DV, 4E11 against EEEV, and 2A10 against Flavivirus) were selected for this study. All of the antibodies were raised according to standard procedures. Using 4D5, 2B5, 1F1, 2B8, 4F9, and 4E11 as capture antibodies, detection antibodies (2A10, 1 F1, and 4E11) were coupled to biotin-NHS ester(Pierce, Germany) at 4°C for 3 h according to the manufacturer's instructions. Unincorporated biotin was removed by Desalt spin column (Pierce). Immunologic reactions were reported by Streptavidin-HRP (CWBIO, Beijing, China) and Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate. Purified goat-anti mouse antibody was used as a positive control. JEV and DV were cultured in C6/36 cells; SV, TBEV, and EEEV were cultured in BHK-21 cells. The culture of TBEV and EEEV was conducted in biosafety level 3 facility, however, JEV, DV and SV were conducted in biosafety level 2 facility. Viral titers were determined by the 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID 50 ) method. All the cultures were inactivated by 0.025% β-propionolactone at 4°C overnight, then 37°C for 1 h to decompose β-propionolactone. Antibodies were spotted using a BIODOT machine (BD6000;California, USA) on ELISA plates (30 nl/dot). The plates were blocked with 3% BSA-PBS in 37°C for 1 h, followed by washing 3 times with PBS containing 0.1% Tween-20 for 2 min each. Then, the plates were dried, sealed, and stored at 4°C before use [11] . When spotting, different spotting buffers and concentrations of capture monoclonal antibodies were evaluated to optimize the ELISA-array assay. The optimization was evaluated by dot morphology and signal intensity. The tested spotting buffers included 1 × phosphate buffer saline (PBS), PBS +20% glycerol, and 1 × PBS + 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100. A range of monoclonal antibody concentrations (0.0125, 0.025, 0.05, 0.1, and 0.2 mg/ml) were compared. Following a double antibody sandwich format, printed plates were incubated sequentially with inactivated viral cultures, biotin-labeled detecting antibody, HPR-labeled avidin, and substrate, followed by signal evaluation. Antigen binding was performed in PBS(containing 0.1% Tween-20 and 5% FCS) at 37°C for 2 h, followed by washing 3 times(1 × PBS containing 0.1% Tween-20). Incubation of ELISA plates with biotinylated detecting antibody cocktails was performed in PBS (containing 0.1% Tween-20 and 5% FCS) at 37°C for 2 h. After washing, specific binding of the detecting antibodies was reported by streptavidin-HRP and stained with Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate (Thermo scientific, Rockford, USA) [11, 14, 15] . Visualization of the plate was performed in AE 1000 cool CCD image analyzer(Beijing BGI GBI Biotech Company., LTD, China). The signal intensity and background of each spot was read out and recorded with "Monster"software. The positive signals were defined as a signal value > 400 and a signal value (sample)/signal value (negative) > 2. The identical antibodies used in the ELISA-array format were also tested in a conventional ELISA format to determine the difference in sensitivity and specificity of the two methods. The conventional ELISAs were performed at the same time as the ELISA-array assays to ensure similar reaction conditions. The conventional ELISAs were performed in an identical maner to the ELISA-array, except that antibodies were coated at a concentration of 2 μg/mL in PBS (pH 7.4), and substrate TMB was used instead of Super Signal ELISA Femto Maximum sensitive substrate [16, 17] . Three serum samples were collected from patients with nervous system symptoms and histories of tick bites. The serum samples were treated with penicillin and streptomycin, then inoculated into the allantoic cavities of chicken eggs. 3 days later, the liquid was collected and divided into two portions (one for inactivation and one for RNA extraction). The RNA and inactivated samples were stored at -70°C before use. RNA was extracted from the inoculated chicken eggs using a RNeasy mini kit (Qiagen Inc., Valencia, CA, USA) according to the manufacturer's instructions. All RNA extraction procedures were conducted at BSL-3 facilities. The primers and probes were used as previously described [18] . The real-time RT-PCR was conducted with a Quti-teck q-RT-PCR Kit (Qiagen Inc,). The reaction consisted of 10 μL of 2 × reaction buffer (0.2 μL reverse transcription enzyme, and 250 nmol/l primers and probes). RNA and deionized water were added to a final volume of 20 μl. PCR was performed with a LightCycler 2.0 (Roche, Switzerland) [19] . Optimization of the ELISA-array assay The spotted array layout is depicted in Figure 1 and the efficacy of three different spotting buffers on the quality of the printed ELISA-arrays were investigated by spot morphology observation and signal intensity comparison. The spotting concentration of the capture antibodies varied from 0.2 to 0.0125 mg/ml (each was serially diluted 2-fold). The efficacy of the spotting concentration of the capture antibodies was evaluated by virus culture detection, the proper spotting concentration was determined by a combination of minimized cross reaction and higher signal intensity. Figure 1 illustrates the array layout and Figure 2 demonstrates the result of the three spotting buffers and spot concentration of antibody 2B5 by TBE virus culture detection. Cross reaction detection was also conducted by applying JEV, YF, and DV cultures. Spot morphology observation (Figures 2a, b , and 2c) demonstrated that spotting buffer containing PBS with 20% glycerol produced tailed spot morphology; buffers containing PBS alone and PBS with 20% glycerol +0.004% Triton-X100 gave good spot morphology (round and full). Buffers containing PBS with 20% glycerol and PBS with 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100 produced higher signal intensities than PBS alone. Thus, PBS with 20% glycerol+0.004% Triton-X100 was adopted as the optimized spotting buffer for subsequent experiments. Simultaneously, the spot concentration evaluation suggested that 0.05 mg/ml was optimal. At this concentration, the signal intensity was higher and the cross-reaction did not appear (Figure 2d ). Consequently, spotting concentration optimization of other capture antibodies (4D5, 1F1, 4E11, and 2B8) demonstrated that 0.05 mg/ml was also suitable(data not shown). The optimized ELISA array layout is shown in Figure 3 , which was applied in the following experiments. Successful detection of viral pathogens requires a test with high sensitivity and specificity. To evaluate the performance of the designed antibody arrays, the specificity and sensitivity of the individual analytes were examined. By testing serially-diluted viral cultures, including DV-2, DV-4, JEV, TBE, SV, and EEEV, the sensitivity of ELISAarray and the identical conventional ELISA were compared ( Table 1 ). The detection limit of the two methods was compared and demonstrated. The cross-reactivity test was conducted using BHK-21 and vero cell lysate, Yellow fever virus (YFV) cultures (5 × 10 5 TCID 50 /ml, West Nile virus(WNV) cultures(2 × 10 6 TCID 50 /ml), and Western equine encephalitis virus(1 × 10 7 TCID 50 /ml). The results demonstrated that neither the ELISA-array nor traditional ELISA displayed cross-reactivity. Equal volumes of cultured TBEV, JEV, DV-2, DV-4, SV, and EEEV were prepared for single sample detection; two or three of the cultures were mixed for multiplex detection. A cocktail of biotin conjugated antibody (2A10, 4E11, and 1F1) was used in all tests. The results demonstrated that for all virus combinations, each virus was detected specifically, with no false-positive or-negative results (Figures 4 and 5) . Chicken eggs inoculated with infected human serum were used for validation of the ELISA-array assay. All samples showed high reaction signals with capture antibody 2B5, which was specific for TBEV ( Figure 6b ). The ELISA-array assay suggested that the three patients were all infected with TBEV. To verify the results tested by ELISA-array, RNA extracted from chicken eggs was applied to a real time-RT-PCR assay using primers and probes targeting TBEV. The results were also positive (Figure 6a) . The consensus detection results confirmed that the ELISAarray assay was reliable. To be widely used in the clinical setting, the detection system should be easy to use and can be performed by untrained staff with little laboratory and experimental experience. Moreover, when the volume of the clinical samples is limited and an increasing number of pathogens per sample needs to be tested, the detecting system should be high-throughput to allow detection of multiple pathogens simultaneously [6, 20, 21] . Multiple detection, easy to use, and affordability are requirements for detection methods in the clinical setting. Thus, an ELISA-array, which combines the advantages of ELISA and protein array, meets the above requirements. It has been reported that an ELISA-array has been used in the diagnosis of cancer and auto-allergic disease [7, 12] ; however, No study has reported the detection of viral pathogens. In this study, we developed a multiplex ELISA-based method in a double-antibody sandwich format for the simultaneous detection of five encephalitis-associated viral pathogens. The production of a reliable antibody chip for identification of microorganisms requires careful screening of capture of antibodies [14] . Cross-reactivity must be minimized and the affinity of the antibody is as important as the specificity. First, we prepared and screened 23 monoclonal antibodies against eight viruses and verified the specificity and affinity to the target viruses by an immunofluorescence assay. Then, the antibodies were screened by an ELISA-array with a double-antibody sandwich ELISA format. The antibodies which produced cross-reactivity and low-positive signals were excluded. Finally, six antibodies were selected as capture antibodies. Another monoclonal antibody, 2A10, which could specifically react with all viruses in the genus Flavivirus was used for detecting antibody against DV, JEV, and TBEV. For the detection of EEEV and SV, although the detecting and trapping antibodies were the same (1F1 and 4E11, respectively), the antibodies produced excellent positive signals. The epitope was not defined; however, we suspect that the antibodies both target the surface of the virions. As one virion exits as, many with the same epitope appear, thus no interference occurred using the same antibody in the double-antibody sandwich format assay. Currently, the availability of antibodies suitable for an array format diagnostic assay is a major problem. In the ELISA-array assay, this problem exists as well. Because of the limitation of available antibodies, this assay could only detect 5 pathogens. In the future, with increasing numbers of suitable antibodies, especially specific antibodies against Flavivirus, this ELISAarray might be able to test more pathogens and be of greater potential use. To make the assay more amenable to multiple virus detection, the assay protocol was optimized. In addition to the dotting buffer, the capture antibody concentration and the different virus inactivation methods (heating and β-propiolactone) were also compared and evaluated. Heat inactivation was performed by heating the viral cultures at 56°C for 1 h, and β-propiolactone inactivation was performed by adding β-propiolactone into the retains better antigenicity than the heat-inactivation method. Thus, β-propiolactone treatment was chosen as the virus-inactivation method. A conventional ELISA is a standard method in many diagnostic laboratories. We compared the ELISA-array with a conventional ELISA and confirmed that the advantage of the ELISA-array was evident with comparable specificity and higher sensitivity than ELISA. The time required for the ELISA-array is significantly less than for conventional ELISA (4 h vs. a minimum of 6 h, respectively). Furthermore, less IgG is required for printing than for coating ELISA plates. Coating of a single well in microtiter plate requires 100 μl of a 1 μg/ml antibody solution, which is equivalent to 100 ng of IgG. For the ELISA-array, only 30 nl of a 50 μg/ml antibody solution is required for each spot, which is equivalent to 1.5 ng of IgG. With the characteristics of ease of use, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, the ELISA-array assay would be widely accepted for clinical use.

How was cross reaction detection determined?

iNR-Drug: Predicting the Interaction of Drugs with Nuclear Receptors in Cellular Networking https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3975431/ SHA: ee55aea26f816403476a7cb71816b8ecb1110329 Authors: Fan, Yue-Nong; Xiao, Xuan; Min, Jian-Liang; Chou, Kuo-Chen Date: 2014-03-19 DOI: 10.3390/ijms15034915 License: cc-by Abstract: Nuclear receptors (NRs) are closely associated with various major diseases such as cancer, diabetes, inflammatory disease, and osteoporosis. Therefore, NRs have become a frequent target for drug development. During the process of developing drugs against these diseases by targeting NRs, we are often facing a problem: Given a NR and chemical compound, can we identify whether they are really in interaction with each other in a cell? To address this problem, a predictor called “iNR-Drug” was developed. In the predictor, the drug compound concerned was formulated by a 256-D (dimensional) vector derived from its molecular fingerprint, and the NR by a 500-D vector formed by incorporating its sequential evolution information and physicochemical features into the general form of pseudo amino acid composition, and the prediction engine was operated by the SVM (support vector machine) algorithm. Compared with the existing prediction methods in this area, iNR-Drug not only can yield a higher success rate, but is also featured by a user-friendly web-server established at http://www.jci-bioinfo.cn/iNR-Drug/, which is particularly useful for most experimental scientists to obtain their desired data in a timely manner. It is anticipated that the iNR-Drug server may become a useful high throughput tool for both basic research and drug development, and that the current approach may be easily extended to study the interactions of drug with other targets as well. Text: With the ability to directly bind to DNA ( Figure 1 ) and regulate the expression of adjacent genes, nuclear receptors (NRs) are a class of ligand-inducible transcription factors. They regulate various biological processes, such as homeostasis, differentiation, embryonic development, and organ physiology [1] [2] [3] . The NR superfamily has been classified into seven families: NR0 (knirps or DAX like) [4, 5] ; NR1 (thyroid hormone like), NR2 (HNF4-like), NR3 (estrogen like), NR4 (nerve growth factor IB-like), NR5 (fushi tarazu-F1 like), and NR6 (germ cell nuclear factor like). Since they are involved in almost all aspects of human physiology and are implicated in many major diseases such as cancer, diabetes and osteoporosis, nuclear receptors have become major drug targets [6, 7] , along with G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] , ion channels [18] [19] [20] , and kinase proteins [21] [22] [23] [24] . Identification of drug-target interactions is one of the most important steps for the new medicine development [25, 26] . The method usually adopted in this step is molecular docking simulation [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] . However, to make molecular docking study feasible, a reliable 3D (three dimensional) structure of the target protein is the prerequisite condition. Although X-ray crystallography is a powerful tool in determining protein 3D structures, it is time-consuming and expensive. Particularly, not all proteins can be successfully crystallized. For example, membrane proteins are very difficult to crystallize and most of them will not dissolve in normal solvents. Therefore, so far very few membrane protein 3D structures have been determined. Although NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) is indeed a very powerful tool in determining the 3D structures of membrane proteins as indicated by a series of recent publications (see, e.g., [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] and a review article [20] ), it is also time-consuming and costly. To acquire the 3D structural information in a timely manner, one has to resort to various structural bioinformatics tools (see, e.g., [37] ), particularly the homologous modeling approach as utilized for a series of protein receptors urgently needed during the process of drug development [19, [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . Unfortunately, the number of dependable templates for developing high quality 3D structures by means of homology modeling is very limited [37] . To overcome the aforementioned problems, it would be of help to develop a computational method for predicting the interactions of drugs with nuclear receptors in cellular networking based on the sequences information of the latter. The results thus obtained can be used to pre-exclude the compounds identified not in interaction with the nuclear receptors, so as to timely stop wasting time and money on those unpromising compounds [58] . Actually, based on the functional groups and biological features, a powerful method was developed recently [59] for this purpose. However, further development in this regard is definitely needed due to the following reasons. (a) He et al. [59] did not provide a publicly accessible web-server for their method, and hence its practical application value is quite limited, particularly for the broad experimental scientists; (b) The prediction quality can be further enhanced by incorporating some key features into the formulation of NR-drug (nuclear receptor and drug) samples via the general form of pseudo amino acid composition [60] . The present study was initiated with an attempt to develop a new method for predicting the interaction of drugs with nuclear receptors by addressing the two points. As demonstrated by a series of recent publications [10, 18, [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] [70] and summarized in a comprehensive review [60] , to establish a really effective statistical predictor for a biomedical system, we need to consider the following steps: (a) select or construct a valid benchmark dataset to train and test the predictor; (b) represent the statistical samples with an effective formulation that can truly reflect their intrinsic correlation with the object to be predicted; (c) introduce or develop a powerful algorithm or engine to operate the prediction; (d) properly perform cross-validation tests to objectively evaluate the anticipated accuracy of the predictor; (e) establish a user-friendly web-server for the predictor that is accessible to the public. Below, let us elaborate how to deal with these steps. The data used in the current study were collected from KEGG (Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes) [71] at http://www.kegg.jp/kegg/. KEGG is a database resource for understanding high-level functions and utilities of the biological system, such as the cell, the organism and the ecosystem, from molecular-level information, especially large-scale molecular datasets generated by genome sequencing and other high-throughput experimental technologies. Here, the benchmark dataset can be formulated as where is the positive subset that consists of the interactive drug-NR pairs only, while the negative subset that contains of the non-interactive drug-NR pairs only, and the symbol represents the union in the set theory. The so-called "interactive" pair here means the pair whose two counterparts are interacting with each other in the drug-target networks as defined in the KEGG database [71] ; while the "non-interactive" pair means that its two counterparts are not interacting with each other in the drug-target networks. The positive dataset contains 86 drug-NR pairs, which were taken from He et al. [59] . The negative dataset contains 172 non-interactive drug-NR pairs, which were derived according to the following procedures: (a) separating each of the pairs in into single drug and NR; (b) re-coupling each of the single drugs with each of the single NRs into pairs in a way that none of them occurred in ; (c) randomly picking the pairs thus formed until reaching the number two times as many as the pairs in . The 86 interactive drug-NR pairs and 172 non-interactive drug-NR pairs are given in Supplementary Information S1, from which we can see that the 86 + 172 = 258 pairs in the current benchmark dataset are actually formed by 25 different NRs and 53 different compounds. Since each of the samples in the current network system contains a drug (compound) and a NR (protein), the following procedures were taken to represent the drug-NR pair sample. First, for the drug part in the current benchmark dataset, we can use a 256-D vector to formulate it as given by where D represents the vector for a drug compound, and d i its i-th (i = 1,2, ,256) component that can be derived by following the "2D molecular fingerprint procedure" as elaborated in [10] . The 53 molecular fingerprint vectors thus obtained for the 53 drugs in are, respectively, given in Supplementary Information S2. The protein sequences of the 25 different NRs in are listed in Supplementary Information S3. Suppose the sequence of a nuclear receptor protein P with L residues is generally expressed by where 1 R represents the 1st residue of the protein sequence P , 2 R the 2nd residue, and so forth. Now the problem is how to effectively represent the sequence of Equation (3) with a non-sequential or discrete model [72] . This is because all the existing operation engines, such as covariance discriminant (CD) [17, 65, [73] [74] [75] [76] [77] [78] [79] , neural network [80] [81] [82] , support vector machine (SVM) [62] [63] [64] 83] , random forest [84, 85] , conditional random field [66] , nearest neighbor (NN) [86, 87] ; K-nearest neighbor (KNN) [88] [89] [90] , OET-KNN [91] [92] [93] [94] , and Fuzzy K-nearest neighbor [10, 12, 18, 69, 95] , can only handle vector but not sequence samples. However, a vector defined in a discrete model may completely lose all the sequence-order information and hence limit the quality of prediction. Facing such a dilemma, can we find an approach to partially incorporate the sequence-order effects? Actually, one of the most challenging problems in computational biology is how to formulate a biological sequence with a discrete model or a vector, yet still keep considerable sequence order information. To avoid completely losing the sequence-order information for proteins, the pseudo amino acid composition [96, 97] or Chou's PseAAC [98] was proposed. Ever since the concept of PseAAC was proposed in 2001 [96] , it has penetrated into almost all the areas of computational proteomics, such as predicting anticancer peptides [99] , predicting protein subcellular location [100] [101] [102] [103] [104] [105] [106] , predicting membrane protein types [107, 108] , predicting protein submitochondria locations [109] [110] [111] [112] , predicting GABA(A) receptor proteins [113] , predicting enzyme subfamily classes [114] , predicting antibacterial peptides [115] , predicting supersecondary structure [116] , predicting bacterial virulent proteins [117] , predicting protein structural class [118] , predicting the cofactors of oxidoreductases [119] , predicting metalloproteinase family [120] , identifying cysteine S-nitrosylation sites in proteins [66] , identifying bacterial secreted proteins [121] , identifying antibacterial peptides [115] , identifying allergenic proteins [122] , identifying protein quaternary structural attributes [123, 124] , identifying risk type of human papillomaviruses [125] , identifying cyclin proteins [126] , identifying GPCRs and their types [15, 16] , discriminating outer membrane proteins [127] , classifying amino acids [128] , detecting remote homologous proteins [129] , among many others (see a long list of papers cited in the References section of [60] ). Moreover, the concept of PseAAC was further extended to represent the feature vectors of nucleotides [65] , as well as other biological samples (see, e.g., [130] [131] [132] ). Because it has been widely and increasingly used, recently two powerful soft-wares, called "PseAAC-Builder" [133] and "propy" [134] , were established for generating various special Chou's pseudo-amino acid compositions, in addition to the web-server "PseAAC" [135] built in 2008. According to a comprehensive review [60] , the general form of PseAAC for a protein sequence P is formulated by where the subscript  is an integer, and its value as well as the components ( 1, 2, , ) u u   will depend on how to extract the desired information from the amino acid sequence of P (cf. Equation (3)). Below, let us describe how to extract useful information to define the components of PseAAC for the NR samples concerned. First, many earlier studies (see, e.g., [136] [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] ) have indicated that the amino acid composition (AAC) of a protein plays an important role in determining its attributes. The AAC contains 20 components with each representing the occurrence frequency of one of the 20 native amino acids in the protein concerned. Thus, such 20 AAC components were used here to define the first 20 elements in Equation (4); i.e., (1) ( 1, 2, , 20) ii fi   (5) where f i (1) is the normalized occurrence frequency of the i-th type native amino acid in the nuclear receptor concerned. Since AAC did not contain any sequence order information, the following steps were taken to make up this shortcoming. To avoid completely losing the local or short-range sequence order information, we considered the approach of dipeptide composition. It contained 20 × 20 = 400 components [142] . Such 400 components were used to define the next 400 elements in Equation (4); i.e., (2) 20 ( 1, 2, , 400) jj fj where (2) j f is the normalized occurrence frequency of the j-th dipeptides in the nuclear receptor concerned. To incorporate the global or long-range sequence order information, let us consider the following approach. According to molecular evolution, all biological sequences have developed starting out from a very limited number of ancestral samples. Driven by various evolutionary forces such as mutation, recombination, gene conversion, genetic drift, and selection, they have undergone many changes including changes of single residues, insertions and deletions of several residues [143] , gene doubling, and gene fusion. With the accumulation of these changes over a long period of time, many original similarities between initial and resultant amino acid sequences are gradually faded out, but the corresponding proteins may still share many common attributes [37] , such as having basically the same biological function and residing at a same subcellular location [144, 145] . To extract the sequential evolution information and use it to define the components of Equation (4), the PSSM (Position Specific Scoring Matrix) was used as described below. According to Schaffer [146] , the sequence evolution information of a nuclear receptor protein P with L amino acid residues can be expressed by a 20 L matrix, as given by where (7) were generated by using PSI-BLAST [147] to search the UniProtKB/Swiss-Prot database (The Universal Protein Resource (UniProt); http://www.uniprot.org/) through three iterations with 0.001 as the E-value cutoff for multiple sequence alignment against the sequence of the nuclear receptor concerned. In order to make every element in Equation (7) be scaled from their original score ranges into the region of [0, 1], we performed a conversion through the standard sigmoid function to make it become Now we extract the useful information from Equation (8) Moreover, we used the grey system model approach as elaborated in [68] to further define the next 60 components of Equation (4) ( 1, 2, , 20) In the above equation, w 1 , w 2 , and w 3 are weight factors, which were all set to 1 in the current study; f j (1) has the same meaning as in Equation (5) where   and Combining Equations (5), (6), (10) and (12), we found that the total number of the components obtained via the current approach for the PseAAC of Equation (4) and each of the 500 components is given by (1) ( Since the elements in Equations (2) and (4) are well defined, we can now formulate the drug-NR pair by combining the two equations as given by   (19) where G represents the drug-NR pair, Å the orthogonal sum, and the 256 + 500 = 756 components are defined by Equations (2) and (18) . For the sake of convenience, let us use x i (i = 1, 2, , 756) to represent the 756 components in Equation (19); i.e., (20) To optimize the prediction quality with a time-saving approach, similar to the treatment [148] [149] [150] , let us convert Equation (20) to where the symbol means taking the average of the quantity therein, and SD means the corresponding standard derivation. In this study, the SVM (support vector machine) was used as the operation engine. SVM has been widely used in the realm of bioinformatics (see, e.g., [62] [63] [64] [151] [152] [153] [154] ). The basic idea of SVM is to transform the data into a high dimensional feature space, and then determine the optimal separating hyperplane using a kernel function. For a brief formulation of SVM and how it works, see the papers [155, 156] ; for more details about SVM, see a monograph [157] . In this study, the LIBSVM package [158] was used as an implementation of SVM, which can be downloaded from http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~cjlin/libsvm/, the popular radial basis function (RBF) was taken as the kernel function. For the current SVM classifier, there were two uncertain parameters: penalty parameter C and kernel parameter  . The method of how to determine the two parameters will be given later. The predictor obtained via the aforementioned procedure is called iNR-Drug, where "i" means identify, and "NR-Drug" means the interaction between nuclear receptor and drug compound. To provide an intuitive overall picture, a flowchart is provided in Figure 2 to show the process of how the predictor works in identifying the interactions between nuclear receptors and drug compounds. To provide a more intuitive and easier-to-understand method to measure the prediction quality, the following set of metrics based on the formulation used by Chou [159] [160] [161] in predicting signal peptides was adopted. According to Chou's formulation, the sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, and Matthew's correlation coefficient can be respectively expressed as [62, [65] [66] [67] Sn 1 where N  is the total number of the interactive NR-drug pairs investigated while N   the number of the interactive NR-drug pairs incorrectly predicted as the non-interactive NR-drug pairs; N  the total number of the non-interactive NR-drug pairs investigated while N   the number of the non-interactive NR-drug pairs incorrectly predicted as the interactive NR-drug pairs. According to Equation (23) we can easily see the following. When 0 N    meaning none of the interactive NR-drug pairs was mispredicted to be a non-interactive NR-drug pair, we have the sensitivity Sn = 1; while NN    meaning that all the interactive NR-drug pairs were mispredicted to be the non-interactive NR-drug pairs, we have the sensitivity Sn = 0 . Likewise, when 0 N    meaning none of the non-interactive NR-drug pairs was mispredicted, we have the specificity Sp we have MCC = 0 meaning total disagreement between prediction and observation. As we can see from the above discussion, it is much more intuitive and easier to understand when using Equation (23) to examine a predictor for its four metrics, particularly for its Mathew's correlation coefficient. It is instructive to point out that the metrics as defined in Equation (23) are valid for single label systems; for multi-label systems, a set of more complicated metrics should be used as given in [162] . How to properly test a predictor for its anticipated success rates is very important for its development as well as its potential application value. Generally speaking, the following three cross-validation methods are often used to examine the quality of a predictor and its effectiveness in practical application: independent dataset test, subsampling or K-fold (such as five-fold, seven-fold, or 10-fold) crossover test and jackknife test [163] . However, as elaborated by a penetrating analysis in [164] , considerable arbitrariness exists in the independent dataset test. Also, as demonstrated in [165] , the subsampling (or K-fold crossover validation) test cannot avoid arbitrariness either. Only the jackknife test is the least arbitrary that can always yield a unique result for a given benchmark dataset [73, 74, 156, [166] [167] [168] . Therefore, the jackknife test has been widely recognized and increasingly utilized by investigators to examine the quality of various predictors (see, e.g., [14, 15, 68, 99, 106, 107, 124, 169, 170] ). Accordingly, in this study the jackknife test was also adopted to evaluate the accuracy of the current predictor. As mentioned above, the SVM operation engine contains two uncertain parameters C and  . To find their optimal values, a 2-D grid search was conducted by the jackknife test on the benchmark dataset . The results thus obtained are shown in Figure 3 , from which it can be seen that the iNR-Drug predictor reaches its optimal status when C = 2 3 and 9 2    . The corresponding rates for the four metrics (cf. Equation (23)) are given in Table 1 , where for facilitating comparison, the overall accuracy Acc reported by He et al. [59] on the same benchmark dataset is also given although no results were reported by them for Sn, Sp and MCC. It can be observed from the table that the overall accuracy obtained by iNR-Drug is remarkably higher that of He et al. [59] , and that the rates achieved by iNR-Drug for the other three metrics are also quite higher. These facts indicate that the current predictor not only can yield higher overall prediction accuracy but also is quite stable with low false prediction rates. As mentioned above (Section 3.2), the jackknife test is the most objective method for examining the quality of a predictor. However, as a demonstration to show how to practically use the current predictor, we took 41 NR-drug pairs from the study by Yamanishi et al. [171] that had been confirmed by experiments as interactive pairs. For such an independent dataset, 34 were correctly identified by iNR-Drug as interactive pairs, i.e., Sn = 34 / 41 = 82.92%, which is quite consistent with the rate of 79.07% achieved by the predictor on the benchmark dataset via the jackknife test as reported in Table 1 . It is anticipated that the iNR-Drug predictor developed in this paper may become a useful high throughput tool for both basic research and drug development, and that the current approach may be easily extended to study the interactions of drug with other targets as well. Since user-friendly and publicly accessible web-servers represent the future direction for developing practically more useful predictors [98, 172] , a publicly accessible web-server for iNR-Drug was established. For the convenience of the vast majority of biologists and pharmaceutical scientists, here let us provide a step-by-step guide to show how the users can easily get the desired result by using iNR-Drug web-server without the need to follow the complicated mathematical equations presented in this paper for the process of developing the predictor and its integrity. Step 1. Open the web server at the site http://www.jci-bioinfo.cn/iNR-Drug/ and you will see the top page of the predictor on your computer screen, as shown in Figure 4 . Click on the Read Me button to see a brief introduction about iNR-Drug predictor and the caveat when using it. Step 2. Either type or copy/paste the query NR-drug pairs into the input box at the center of Figure 4 . Each query pair consists of two parts: one is for the nuclear receptor sequence, and the other for the drug. The NR sequence should be in FASTA format, while the drug in the KEGG code beginning with the symbol #. Examples for the query pairs input and the corresponding output can be seen by clicking on the Example button right above the input box. Step 3. Click on the Submit button to see the predicted result. For example, if you use the three query pairs in the Example window as the input, after clicking the Submit button, you will see on your screen that the "hsa:2099" NR and the "D00066" drug are an interactive pair, and that the "hsa:2908" NR and the "D00088" drug are also an interactive pair, but that the "hsa:5468" NR and the "D00279" drug are not an interactive pair. All these results are fully consistent with the experimental observations. It takes about 3 minutes before each of these results is shown on the screen; of course, the more query pairs there is, the more time that is usually needed. Step 4. Click on the Citation button to find the relevant paper that documents the detailed development and algorithm of iNR-Durg. Step 5. Click on the Data button to download the benchmark dataset used to train and test the iNR-Durg predictor. Step 6. The program code is also available by clicking the button download on the lower panel of Figure 4 .

What are associated with cancer, diabetes, inflammatory disease, and osteoporosis?

Frontiers in antiviral therapy and immunotherapy https://doi.org/10.1002/cti2.1115 SHA: facbfdfa7189ca9ff83dc30e5d241ab22e962dbf Authors: Heaton, Steven M Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1002/cti2.1115 License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Globally, recent decades have witnessed a growing disjunction, a 'Valley of Death' 1,2 no less, between broadening strides in fundamental biomedical research and their incommensurate reach into the clinic. Plumbing work on research funding and development pipelines through recent changes in the structure of government funding, 2 new public and private joint ventures and specialist undergraduate and postgraduate courses now aim to incorporate pathways to translation at the earliest stages. Reflecting this shift, the number of biomedical research publications targeting 'translational' concepts has increased exponentially, up 1800% between 2003 and 2014 3 and continuing to rise rapidly up to the present day. Fuelled by the availability of new research technologies, as well as changing disease, cost and other pressing issues of our time, further growth in this exciting space will undoubtedly continue. Despite recent advances in the therapeutic control of immune function and viral infection, current therapies are often challenging to develop, expensive to deploy and readily select for resistance-conferring mutants. Shaped by the hostvirus immunological 'arms race' and tempered in the forge of deep time, the biodiversity of our world is increasingly being harnessed for new biotechnologies and therapeutics. Simultaneously, a shift towards host-oriented antiviral therapies is currently underway. In this Clinical & Translational Immunology Special Feature, I illustrate a strategic vision integrating these themes to create new, effective, economical and robust antiviral therapies and immunotherapies, with both the realities and the opportunities afforded to researchers working in our changing world squarely in mind. Opening this CTI Special Feature, I outline ways these issues may be solved by creatively leveraging the so-called 'strengths' of viruses. Viral RNA polymerisation and reverse transcription enable resistance to treatment by conferring extraordinary genetic diversity. However, these exact processes ultimately restrict viral infectivity by strongly limiting virus genome sizes and their incorporation of new information. I coin this evolutionary dilemma the 'information economy paradox'. Many viruses attempt to resolve this by manipulating multifunctional or multitasking host cell proteins (MMHPs), thereby maximising host subversion and viral infectivity at minimal informational cost. 4 I argue this exposes an 'Achilles Heel' that may be safely targeted via host-oriented therapies to impose devastating informational and fitness barriers on escape mutant selection. Furthermore, since MMHPs are often conserved targets within and between virus families, MMHP-targeting therapies may exhibit both robust and broadspectrum antiviral efficacy. Achieving this through drug repurposing will break the vicious cycle of escalating therapeutic development costs and trivial escape mutant selection, both quickly and in multiple places. I also discuss alternative posttranslational and RNA-based antiviral approaches, designer vaccines, immunotherapy and the emerging field of neo-virology. 4 I anticipate international efforts in these areas over the coming decade will enable the tapping of useful new biological functions and processes, methods for controlling infection, and the deployment of symbiotic or subclinical viruses in new therapies and biotechnologies that are so crucially needed. Upon infection, pathogens stimulate expression of numerous host inflammatory factors that support recruitment and activation of immune cells. On the flip side, this same process also causes immunopathology when prolonged or deregulated. 5 In their contribution to this Special Feature, Yoshinaga and Takeuchi review endogenous RNA-binding proteins (RBPs) that post-transcriptionally control expression of crucial inflammatory factors in various tissues and their potential therapeutic applications. 6 These RBPs include tristetraprolin and AUF1, which promote degradation of AU-rich element (ARE)-containing mRNA; members of the Roquin and Regnase families, which respectively promote or effect degradation of mRNAs harbouring stem-loop structures; and the increasingly apparent role of the RNA methylation machinery in controlling inflammatory mRNA stability. These activities take place in various subcellular compartments and are differentially regulated during infection. In this way, mRNA-destabilising RBPs constitute a 'brake' on the immune system, which may ultimately be toggled therapeutically. I anticipate continued efforts in this area will lead to new methods of regaining control over inflammation in autoimmunity, selectively enhancing immunity in immunotherapy, and modulating RNA synthesis and virus replication during infection. Another mRNA under post-transcriptional regulation by Regnase-1 and Roquin is Furin, which encodes a conserved proprotein convertase crucial in human health and disease. Furin, along with other PCSK family members, is widely implicated in immune regulation, cancer and the entry, maturation or release of a broad array of evolutionarily diverse viruses including human papillomavirus (HPV), influenza (IAV), Ebola (EboV), dengue (DenV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Here, Braun and Sauter review the roles of furin in these processes, as well as the history and future of furin-targeting therapeutics. 7 They also discuss their recent work revealing how two IFN-cinducible factors exhibit broad-spectrum inhibition of IAV, measles (MV), zika (ZikV) and HIV by suppressing furin activity. 8 Over the coming decade, I expect to see an ever-finer spatiotemporal resolution of host-oriented therapies to achieve safe, effective and broad-spectrum yet costeffective therapies for clinical use. The increasing abundance of affordable, sensitive, high-throughput genome sequencing technologies has led to a recent boom in metagenomics and the cataloguing of the microbiome of our world. The MinION nanopore sequencer is one of the latest innovations in this space, enabling direct sequencing in a miniature form factor with only minimal sample preparation and a consumer-grade laptop computer. Nakagawa and colleagues here report on their latest experiments using this system, further improving its performance for use in resource-poor contexts for meningitis diagnoses. 9 While direct sequencing of viral genomic RNA is challenging, this system was recently used to directly sequence an RNA virus genome (IAV) for the first time. 10 I anticipate further improvements in the performance of such devices over the coming decade will transform virus surveillance efforts, the importance of which was underscored by the recent EboV and novel coronavirus (nCoV / COVID-19) outbreaks, enabling rapid deployment of antiviral treatments that take resistance-conferring mutations into account. Decades of basic immunology research have provided a near-complete picture of the main armaments in the human antiviral arsenal. Nevertheless, this focus on mammalian defences and pathologies has sidelined examination of the types and roles of viruses and antiviral defences that exist throughout our biosphere. One case in point is the CRISPR/Cas antiviral immune system of prokaryotes, which is now repurposed as a revolutionary gene-editing biotechnology in plants and animals. 11 Another is the ancient lineage of nucleocytosolic large DNA viruses (NCLDVs), which are emerging human pathogens that possess enormous genomes of up to several megabases in size encoding hundreds of proteins with unique and unknown functions. 12 Moreover, hundreds of human-and avian-infective viruses such as IAV strain H5N1 are known, but recent efforts indicate the true number may be in the millions and many harbour zoonotic potential. 13 It is increasingly clear that host-virus interactions have generated truly vast yet poorly understood and untapped biodiversity. Closing this Special Feature, Watanabe and Kawaoka elaborate on neo-virology, an emerging field engaged in cataloguing and characterising this biodiversity through a global consortium. 14 I predict these efforts will unlock a vast wealth of currently unexplored biodiversity, leading to biotechnologies and treatments that leverage the host-virus interactions developed throughout evolution. When biomedical innovations fall into the 'Valley of Death', patients who are therefore not reached all too often fall with them. Being entrusted with the resources and expectation to conceive, deliver and communicate dividends to society is both cherished and eagerly pursued at every stage of our careers. Nevertheless, the road to research translation is winding and is built on a foundation of basic research. Supporting industry-academia collaboration and nurturing talent and skills in the Indo-Pacific region are two of the four pillars of the National Innovation and Science Agenda. 2 These frame Australia's Medical Research and Innovation Priorities, which include antimicrobial resistance, global health and health security, drug repurposing and translational research infrastructure, 15 capturing many of the key elements of this CTI Special Feature. Establishing durable international relationships that integrate diverse expertise is essential to delivering these outcomes. To this end, NHMRC has recently taken steps under the International Engagement Strategy 16 to increase cooperation with its counterparts overseas. These include the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development (AMED), tasked with translating the biomedical research output of that country. Given the reciprocal efforts at accelerating bilateral engagement currently underway, 17 the prospects for new areas of international cooperation and mobility have never been more exciting nor urgent. With the above in mind, all contributions to this CTI Special Feature I have selected from research presented by fellow invitees to the 2018 Awaji International Forum on Infection and Immunity (AIFII) and 2017 Consortium of Biological Sciences (ConBio) conferences in Japan. Both Australia and Japan have strong traditions in immunology and related disciplines, and I predict that the quantity, quality and importance of our bilateral cooperation will accelerate rapidly over the short to medium term. By expanding and cooperatively leveraging our respective research strengths, our efforts may yet solve the many pressing disease, cost and other sustainability issues of our time.

What is neo-virology?

C. difficile 630Δerm Spo0A Regulates Sporulation, but Does Not Contribute to Toxin Production, by Direct High-Affinity Binding to Target DNA https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3485338/ SHA: f0fb3bbd96dad4c907c7fd456cd5783ed8fa7bd6 Authors: Rosenbusch, Katharina E.; Bakker, Dennis; Kuijper, Ed J.; Smits, Wiep Klaas Date: 2012-10-31 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0048608 License: cc-by Abstract: Clostridium difficile is a Gram positive, anaerobic bacterium that can form highly resistant endospores. The bacterium is the causative agent of C. difficile infection (CDI), for which the symptoms can range from a mild diarrhea to potentially fatal pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon. Endospore formation in Firmicutes, including C. difficile, is governed by the key regulator for sporulation, Spo0A. In Bacillus subtilis, this transcription factor is also directly or indirectly involved in various other cellular processes. Here, we report that C. difficile Spo0A shows a high degree of similarity to the well characterized B. subtilis protein and recognizes a similar binding sequence. We find that the laboratory strain C. difficile 630Δerm contains an 18bp-duplication near the DNA-binding domain compared to its ancestral strain 630. In vitro binding assays using purified C-terminal DNA binding domain of the C. difficile Spo0A protein demonstrate direct binding to DNA upstream of spo0A and sigH, early sporulation genes and several other putative targets. In vitro binding assays suggest that the gene encoding the major clostridial toxin TcdB may be a direct target of Spo0A, but supernatant derived from a spo0A negative strain was no less toxic towards Vero cells than that obtained from a wild type strain, in contrast to previous reports. These results identify for the first time direct (putative) targets of the Spo0A protein in C. difficile and make a positive effect of Spo0A on production of the large clostridial toxins unlikely. Text: Sporulation is an adaptive strategy that enables bacteria to survive harsh environmental conditions for prolonged periods of time, and is an integral part of the transmission of sporulating pathogens and their tolerance and resistance towards antimicrobial compounds. Spo0A is the key regulator for sporulation [1, 2] . Most of our knowledge about the protein is based on work in Bacilli. Spo0A is a response regulator that demonstrates phosphorylation dependent binding to DNA [3] [4] [5] . Phosphorylation occurs through the concerted action of several proteins that together form a so called phosphorelay [6] . The signaling cascade allows for the integration of environmental signals into the regulation of Spo0A dependent processes, including sporulation. The two functional domains, the N-terminal phosphorylation and dimerization domain (receiver domain), and the C-terminal DNA binding (effector) domain are separated by a hinge region that is relatively poorly conserved [7] . Phosphorylation is believed to result in a structural rearrangement that facilitates dimerization [8, 9] , resulting in the disruption of transcription-inhibitory contacts between the receiver and effector domains. The isolated DNA binding domain can bind legitimate targets of the Spo0A protein due to the absence of the transcription inhibitory contacts, thereby bypassing the need for phosphorylation [10] . Extensive characterization of Spo0A targets has revealed a motif that represents a high affinity Spo0A binding site, the 0A box [10, 11] . The crystal structure of the DNA binding domain confirms specific and non-specific contacts between the protein and the consensus sequence [12, 13] . It is noteworthy that Spo0A regulates many other processes than sporulation, such as competence for genetic transformation, DNA replication, and biofilm formation in B. subtilis [14] [15] [16] , virulence factors and stress responses in for instance B. anthracis and B. thuringiensis [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] , and solvent production in Clostridium acetobutylicum [22, 23] . C. difficile is a Gram positive, anaerobic bacterium that is the causative agent of C. difficile infection (CDI) (for recent reviews see [24, 25] ). Though many people are asymptomatically colonized by C. difficile, the bacterium can cause serious health problems, such as pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon, under the influence of risk factors such as age and antibiotic use. As a result, CDI was long regarded a nosocomial infection. Recently, however, an increase in the cases of community acquired CDI can be observed [26] . Outbreaks of CDI have been linked to so called hypervirulent strains, such as PCR ribotypes 027 (BI/ NAP1) and 078 [27, 28] . Its main virulence factors are the major clostridial toxins A and B [29, 30] . In addition, certain strains of C. difficile, including ribotypes 027 and 078, additionally encode a binary toxin [31, 32] . C. difficile is transmitted via the fecal-oral route. It is believed that spores are crucial to successfully infect new hosts, as they are able to withstand the harsh environment of the stomach, and survive antibiotic treatments that alter the endogenous flora, after which C. difficile can overgrow [24, 25] . There is limited knowledge about the regulation of sporulation in C. difficile. It has been reported that spo0A, as expected, is required for the formation of spores [33] and the gene is required for persistence and transmission in mice [34] . Though the pathways downstream of Spo0A seem to a large extent conserved between B. subtilis and Clostridia, this is less so for the pathways leading to activation of Spo0A [2] . It has been suggested that the orphan histidine kinase CD2492 is involved in the activation of Spo0A [35] . Similarly, it was reported that multiple orphan histidine kinases can phosphorylate Spo0A in C. acetobutylicum [36] . Recently, it was reported that spo0A can be transcribed from a SigH-dependent promoter [37] . It is unknown which genes are regulated by direct binding of Spo0A to their upstream regions. Here, we establish an in vitro binding assay for C. difficile Spo0A and demonstrate for the first time direct binding of this transcription factor to DNA upstream of several putative target genes. Escherichia coli strains were routinely grown in Luria-Bertani broth or plates, supplemented with appropriate antibiotics. Chloramphenicol was used at a final concentration of 20 mg/mL for agar plates and 10 mg/mL for liquid cultures. Ampicillin was used at a final concentration of 100 mg/mL. Kanamycin was used at a final concentration of 20 mg/mL. Cloning was carried out using E. coli DH5a, overexpression was performed in E. coli Rosetta(DE3) pLysS (Novagen). C. difficile strains were grown in a glucose-free trypton-yeast based medium (TTY; 3% w/v bactotrypton (BD), 2% yeast extract (Fluka), 0.1% w/v thioglycollate (Sigma) pH 7.4), supplemented with 20 mg/mL of lincomycin when appropriate, or on CLO or TSS plates (Biomerieux). All plasmids are listed in Table 1 . Primers (obtained from Sigma Aldrich) are listed in Text S1 and specific cycling conditions are available on request. Unless noted otherwise, PCR reactions were carried out using Pfu polymerase (Fermentas) according to the instructions of the manufacturer. Plasmid pWKS1251, for the overproduction of Spo0A-DBD carrying a C-terminal 66His-tag, was constructed as follows. A sequence corresponding to the DNA binding domain of Spo0A was amplified using primers oWKS-1123a and oWKS-1124 using chromosomal DNA from C. difficile strain 630Derm as a template. The resulting fragment was cloned into pCR2.1-TOPO (Invitrogen), yielding pWKS1247. This plasmid was digested with NdeI and XhoI, separated on a 1% agarose/0.56 TAE (20 mM Tris Acetate, 0.5 mM EDTA) gel, the fragment corresponding to the DNA binding domain was recovered by gel-isolation (using a GeneJET Gel Extraction kit, Fermentas) and cloned into similarly digested pMF14 [10] that had been gel-isolated in the same manner. The construct was verified by PCR, restriction analyses and DNA sequencing using primers oWKS-135 and oWKS-136 (see below). Plasmid pWKS1245, for the production of full length Spo0A carrying a C-terminal 6xHis-tag, was constructed in a similar manner using chromosomal DNA from C. difficile 630Derm as a template, but using the PCR product of primers oWKS-1122 and oWKS-1123a. Plasmids used as PCR templates for generating EMSA probes were constructed by cloning the PCR products into pCR2.1-TOPO. The inserts, and in the case of the mutated PabrB promoters the presence of the desired point mutations in the consensus 0A box, were verified by DNA sequencing using primers oWKS-24 and oWKS-25 (see below). Sequence grade plasmids were isolated using a Nucleospin Plasmid QuickPure kit (Macherey Nagel) according to the manufacturer's instructions, except that two lysis reactions were combined onto a single filter and eluted with 65uC prewarmed AE buffer. All constructs were sequenced using BigDye Terminator chemistry (Invitrogen) on an ABI3130 sequencer (Perkin Elmer), according to the instructions of the manufacturers. In short, ,200 ng of plasmid was mixed with 3.2 pmol of primer, 1 mL Terminator Ready Reaction Mix (Invitrogen) in a final volume of 20 mL. After thermocycling, DNA was precipitated and washed with 65% isopropanol, and dissolved in 12 mL HiDi formamid (Invitrogen) at 96uC for 2 mins and stored in the dark at 4uC until the sequencing run. Sequence analyses were performed in CloneManager Professional Suite 7 (SciEd) and Geneious version 5.6.2 (Biomatters Ltd). Plasmids pWKS1245 and pWKS1251 were transformed into E. coli Rosetta(DE3) pLysS (Novagen). Transformants were used to inoculate 25 mL of LB with appropriate antibiotics. After overnight incubation, the cells were 1:100 diluted in 500 mL fresh medium containing appropriate antibiotics. Protein production was induced with 1 mM IPTG at an OD600 of 0.7 and growth was continued for another three hours before harvesting. Cells were washed with ice cold PBS and stored at 280uC for later use. Purification of the proteins was essentially done as described [10] . In short, cells were disrupted in 4 mL lysis buffer (2 mM PMSF, 10 mM imidazole, 5 mM beta-mercaptoethanol, 300 mM NaCl, 50 mM NaH 2 PO 4 , pH 7.9). Cleared cell lysates we incubated with 2 mL pre-equilibrated 50% TALON slurry (Clontech) in a final volume of 15 mL lysis buffer for 1 hr. The resin was allowed to settle on a Poly-Prep column (BioRad) and washed with 2 mL wash buffer (20 mM imidazole, 300 mM NaCl, 50 mM NaH 2 PO 4 , pH 7.9). The protein was stepwise eluted in 1 mL fractions after applying 2 mL elution buffer to the column (identical to wash buffer but with 50, 100, 250 or 500 mM imidazole). The whole procedure was carried out at 4uC. Fractions were assayed for purity and yield and suitable fractions were dialysed against 26 1L dialysis buffer (50 mM Tris-HCl pH 8, 1 mM EDTA, 0.5 mM DTT) using Slide-A-Lyzer cassettes with a molecular weight cut-off of 3.5 kDa (Pierce). Proteins were stored at 280uC in storage buffer (identical to dialysis buffer but containing 20% glycerol). Protein concentrations were determined using Bradford reagent (BioRad), according to the manufacturer's instructions. DNA fragments for use in EMSA experiment were generated by PCR using GoTaq polymerase (Promega) and chromosomal DNA from B. subtilis JH642 (Bacillus Genetic Stock Center 1A96; http://www.bgsc.org), plasmids listed in Table 1 , or chromosomal DNA from C. difficile 630Derm [38] as a template. Primers and specific cycling conditions for generation of the EMSA probes are listed in Text S1. DNA fragments of the expected size were isolated from a 16TAE/8% native polyacrylamide gel using diffusion buffer (0.5 M ammonium acetate, 10 mM magnesium acetate, 1 mM EDTA pH 8, 0.1% SDS) and a QIAExII kit (Qiagen), according to the manufacturer's instructions. Recovered DNA was end-labeled with 32P-c-ATP using FR buffer and T4 kinase (Invitrogen) according to the instructions of the manufacturer. Specific activity was determined on a LS6000 scintillation counter (Beckman). EMSA conditions were based on previous studies [10] . In short, binding reactions were carried out in binding buffer (10 mM Tris-HCl pH 7.6, 1 mM EDTA, 50 mM NaCl, 1 mM DTT, 5% glycerol) in the presence of 200 mg/mL bovine serum albumin (NEB) and 200 cpm/mL radiolabeled DNA fragment. Reactions were incubated for 20 minutes at 30uC prior to loading on a 16TAE/8% non-denaturing polyacrylamide gel that was prerun for 20 minutes at 50 V in 16 TAE buffer. Electrophoresis was carried out for 120 min at 85 V. After vacuum drying the gels onto filter paper, they were imaged after overnight exposure on Phosphorimager screens on a Typhoon instrument (GE Healthcare). The toxic effects of C. difficile culture supernatants on Vero cells (a kind gift of Eric Snijder [39] ) were determined as follows. Supernatant from a bacterial culture was harvested by centrifuging cells for 3 minutes at 140006g and filtered on a 0.45 mM cellulose acetate filter using a syringe. Supernatants were 2-fold serially diluted in cell culture medium (Dulbecco modified Eagle medium (Lonza) supplemented with 100 mg/mL penicillin, 100 U/mL streptomycin, 10% fetal calf serum), before applying them to a monolayer of Vero cells, and incubation was continued for another hour. As a positive control, 50 mL 1:10 diluted purified toxin (Techlab) was added to the cells. To determine if observed cytotoxic effects were specific for the large clostridial toxins, commercially available anti-toxin against TcdA and TcdB (Techlab) was added to 10-fold diluted bacterial supernatant for 60 min prior to incubation on the Vero cells. Toxin end-point titres were defined as the lowest dilution at which no cytopathological effects (cell rounding) were observed. Statistical significance was evaluated with an independent sample t-test. Immunization of mice with full length C. difficile Spo0A-6xHis was kindly performed at the Welcome Trust Sanger Institute (Hinxton, UK). Cells from 1 mL of C. difficile culture were collected by centrifugation for 1 min at 14000 rpm in a table top centrifuge and resuspended in 200 mL resuspension buffer (10 mM Tris HCl pH 8, 10 mM EDTA, 0.5 mg/mL lysozyme, 1 mM Pefabloc SC (Roche)). After incubation for 30 mins at 37uC, 50 mL of 56 SDS sample buffer (0.1 M DTT, 2% SDS, 50 mM Tris HCl pH 6.8, 10% glycerol, 0.0025% BPB) was added, and samples were heated to 96uC for 5 mins. Total cell lysates (amounts corrected for OD 600 ) were separated on a 12% SDS-PAGE gel prior to semi-dry blotting for 1 h at 10 V to a polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membrane. Membranes were blocked in PBST buffer (phosphate buffered saline with 0.1% v/v Tween-20) containing 5% membrane blocking reagent (Amersham Biosciences). To visualize Spo0A protein cleared polyclonal serum from a single mouse at a 1:3000 dilution was used, followed by either a goat-anti-mouse HRP-conjugated secondary antibody followed by ECL+ detection (Amersham Bioscience), or a goatanti-mouse-biotin-conjugated secondary antibody (Dako) followed by a tertiary mouse-anti-biotin Cy3-conjugated antibody (Jackson). Detection was done using on a Typhoon instrument (GE Healthcare). Background corrected peak volumes were quantified using ImageQuant TL (Amersham Biosciences). Alignments of B. subtilis and C. difficile spo0A were made using ClustalW2 (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/Tools/msa/clustalw2/) on the basis of the published genome sequences, Genbank accession numbers AL009126 and AM180355, respectively, and the 630Derm spo0A sequence as determined in this study. The sequence for spo0A of C. difficile strain 630Derm was deposited in Genbank (accession no JX050222). Consensus Spo0A boxes were identified using a Single string Search command in Genome2D [40] , allowing 0 mismatches. The box positions were linked to upand downstream genes using the ''Add nearest gene to List of DNA Motifs'' feature and Microsoft Excel. The results were manually inspected for those boxes within 500 bp upstream of a gene on the same strand. Figures for publication were prepared using ImageQuant TL (Amersham Biosciences), Adobe Photoshop CS3 (Adobe Systems Inc) and Corel Graphics Suite X5 (Corel Corporation). In order to characterize C. difficile Spo0A, the full length protein and its DNA binding domain (DBD) were expressed as a Cterminally 66His-tagged protein in the heterologous host Escherichia coli (Fig. 1A) and purified to near homogeneity using metal affinity chromatography ( Fig. 1A ; lanes P). Full length protein was used to raise antibodies to detect Spo0A in total lysates of C. difficile strains, and the purified DNA binding domain was used in subsequent in vitro binding assays (see below). We determined the expression of C. difficile Spo0A throughout growth. We found that the protein is present in lysates from exponential to stationary growth phase cells. We performed immunoblotting using polyclonal antibodies against C. difficile Spo0A on total lysates of wild type and spo0A mutant cells grown in a trypton-yeast based medium (TTY). We found a clear signal of the size expected for full length Spo0A (,31 kDa) as early as 3 hours post inoculation (exponential growth phase), through transition phase (8 h) as well as 24 and 48 hours post inoculation (stationary growth phase) ( Figure 1B; 630Derm) . The signals were specific for C. difficile Spo0A as they were absent from lysates from the C. difficile spo0A mutant (Fig. 1B , CT::spo0A). We obtained similar results in other media, such as the commonly used supplemented brain heart infusion broth (BHIS; data not shown). To determine relative levels of Spo0A throughout growth, we performed an immunoblot experiment using fluorescent antibodies, which gives more quantitative information compared to the use of horseradish peroxidase conjugated antibodies in our hands. We found that the levels of Spo0A increases approximately 20-fold from 6 hours post inoculation and remains at similar levels from 8 to 48 hours post inoculation ( Figure 1C ). Though it should be noted that the Western blots do not provide information on the phosphorylation state of the protein, we conclude that the protein in active or inactive form is present throughout growth and is more abundant in stationary growth phase. Spo0A of C. difficile Strain 630Derm Contains a 6aminoacid Duplication BLAST homology searches readily identify a homolog of the well-characterized B. subtilis Spo0A protein in C. difficile 630 (CD1214) and previous work demonstrated that a spo0A mutant (an insertional inactivation of cd1214) -as expected -no longer forms spores [41] . In silico analyses suggest a similar secondary structure for both proteins ( Fig. 2A) , with a conserved dimerization and DNA binding domain, separated by a poorly conserved hinge region [7, 12] . We compared the sequence of CD1214 obtained from our lab strain 630Derm [38] to that of the published C. difficile 630 genome [42] . Strain 630Derm is a spontaneous erythromycin sensitive strain, which is commonly used in mutagenesis studies and was obtained by serial passaging of strain 630 [33, 38] . The 630Derm spo0A sequence (Genbank accession no JX050222) was derived from the expression plasmids constructed for this study, and confirmed in a whole genome sequence of strain 630Derm generated in our lab (data not shown). We found that 630Derm spo0A contains an 18 base pair direct repeat, resulting in a 6 amino acid (NVGNIE) duplication compared to the published reference sequence. The duplication maps to a region of the protein with relatively low sequence conservation (hinge), flanking the highly conserved DNA binding domain ( Fig. 2A and B) . We verified the absence of this duplication in strain 630 by PCR (Fig. 2C ) as well as sequencing from the chromosomal DNA of C. difficile 630 (data not shown), to rule out an error in the original genome sequence and to demonstrate that the difference in size of the PCR product was specific to the 18 bp insertion. In addition, we checked several other strains of PCR ribotypes 12 (to which 630 and 630Derm belong) by PCR, but the duplication was found to be unique to 630Derm among the isolates tested (data not shown). C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Shows Similar Specificity as B. subtilis Spo0A-DBD Next, we examined the conservation of the DNA binding domain of Spo0A (Spo0A-DBD) between B. subtilis and C. difficile. In B. subtilis amino acid residues contacting the backbone of the DNA and interacting with specific residues of the Spo0A binding sequence have been defined [13] . We found that all these residues were conserved in the C. difficile protein sequence (Fig. 2B) , indicating that the protein likely recognizes a similar motif. DNA binding by full length Spo0A in B. subtilis requires phosphorylation dependent dimerization [8, 9] . However, it was shown that the isolated DBD is capable of binding to legitimate targets of the full length protein [10] . Analogously, we purified the C. difficile Spo0A-DBD for use in in vitro binding assays. As no direct targets for the C. difficile protein have been reported so far, we used the upstream region of the abrB gene (PabrB) of B. subtilis. PabrB is commonly used as a high-affinity control in binding assays with the B. subtilis Spo0A or Spo0A-DBD protein [43, 44] . It is noteworthy that we failed to identify a homolog of abrB in C. difficile using BLAST, indicating that potential indirect regulation by Spo0A cannot occur through abrB in C. difficile as it does in B. subtilis. We found that C. difficile Spo0A-DBD bound with high affinity to PabrB (Fig. 2D and E) . We performed electrophoretic mobility shift assays (EMSAs) using radiolabeled PabrB and increasing amounts of purified C. difficile Spo0A-DBD that was purified using a C-terminal 66His-tag. The addition of protein leads to a dose-dependent retardation of the DNA fragment with an apparent K D of ,50 nM. In the same range of protein concentrations, no binding was observed for a negative control (a DNA fragment of B. subtilis citG [45] ) (Fig. 2E) , suggesting that binding was specific for the abrB promoter region. B. subtilis Spo0A recognizes a distinct sequence (0A box), that is characterized by a 7 bp core motif (TGTCGAA) [10, 11] . Structural studies have revealed that the protein makes specific contacts with the G at position 2 (G2), and the C at position 4 (C4) and 5 (G5) of this motif [13] . We introduced G2A, C4A, G5A, G2A/C4A and C4A/G5A mutations in the perfect consensus core 0A-box present in PabrB. We found that the affinity of C. difficile Spo0A for these mutated PabrB fragments was highly reduced (Fig. 2E) . We performed EMSAs using radiolabeled PabrB containing the mutated core sequence. For the single point mutations in the DNA, the affinity decreased ,10-fold. There did not seem to be an additive effect of a second point mutation for the two combinations tested. None of the mutations abolished binding of C. difficile Spo0A completely, most likely as the result of binding of Spo0A to other (non-consensus) 0A boxes in the abrB promoter [44] . Taken together, we conclude that the guanine and cytosine residues in the core TGTCGAA motif of PabrB are important for specific binding of this fragment by C. difficile Spo0A-DBD. Value for Binding by C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Above, we have established that the Spo0A-DBD of C. difficile is highly homologous to that of the B. subtilis Spo0A protein, and that the proteins recognize a similar consensus sequence (Fig. 2 ). Based on this information, we identified the several genes as putative direct targets of C. difficile Spo0A. We queried the C. difficile 630 genome sequence for perfect matches to the core 0A box using Genome2D [40] . Such an analysis revealed the presence of 102 matching motifs, of which 45 were located within 500 bp of the initiating ATG of an open reading frame on the same strand (see Table S1 ). Our attention was drawn to spo0A and sigH, as these two genes were previously found to be regulated by Spo0A in B. subtilis and/or play important roles in sporulation [3, [46] [47] [48] . We found that C. difficile Spo0A bound to DNA sequences upstream of spo0A and sigH. We performed EMSAs with DNA encompassing 220-281 bp upstream of the initiating ATG codon of the spo0A, sigH and spoVG open reading frames. We found that the addition of Spo0A-DBD to the reactions caused retardation of the spo0A and sigH DNA fragments (Fig. 3A) , but not of a spoVG fragment which did not contain a consensus 0A box (Fig. 3B) . It should be noted that the affinity of Spo0A-DBD for the region upstream of spo0A was the highest we have observed so far for any C. difficile DNA. Moreover, the presence of multiple shifted species could indicate the presence of more than one strong binding site. These results establish that spo0A and sigH are likely legitimate targets of Spo0A in C. difficile, and confirm that spoVG is not, in line with results obtained in B. subtilis [10] . We were interested to see if Spo0A in C. difficile could potentially regulate genes that have no documented function in sporulation. Our in silico analysis identified several genes with no obvious link to sporulation that had a consensus 0A box within 100 bp upstream of their start codon. This positioning is similar to that observed for spo0A (275) and sigH (278). We confirmed in vitro binding of the C. difficile Spo0A-DBD to the promoter regions of lplA and ssuA. We carried out EMSA experiments using probes that included the perfect consensus site and purified Spo0A-DBD protein. We observed binding of the protein to fragments upstream of the lplA gene (CD1654; box at 267) and the ssuA gene (CD1484; box at 282) (Fig. 3A) . The lplA gene encodes a predicted lipoate-protein ligase, and ssuA is annotated as an aliphatic sulfonates ABC transporter; to our knowledge, neither of these have been directly implicated in sporulation or have found to be targets for Spo0A in other organisms. Together our results establish the potential for binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of spo0A and sigH, two genes that are important for sporulation, and indicate that Spo0A may have functions that go beyond the regulation of sporulation in C. difficile. It has been established that a spo0A mutant of C. difficile does not produce any spores, consistent with a crucial role in the sporulation pathway [33] . However, the in silico identification of upstream regions with a consensus Spo0A binding site did not point to any of the early sporulation genes (downstream of spo0A itself) as direct targets of Spo0A. This is likely the result of variations in the 0A-box in these promoters that were disregarded in the box search. In support of this, many well-characterized legitimate direct targets of B. subtilis Spo0A (such as spoIIAA and spoIIE) do not contain a 100% match to the core motif, but rather one or more near-consensus boxes [5, 49] . We found that Spo0A- We performed EMSA experiments using increasing amounts of purified Spo0A-DBD from C. difficile 630Derm and the DNA fragments indicated above (Fig. 3B ). For spoIIAA (encoding an antianti sigma-factor) and spoIIE (encoding a serine phosphatase), we observed a low intensity shifted species at concentrations as low as 150 nM. For spoIIGA (encoding a sporulation specific protease) we observed the shifted species only at higher concentrations of protein (.200 nM). The negative control (spoVG) did not demonstrate binding of Spo0A-DBD at these concentrations. Moreover, the shift we observed was reversible using unlabeled DNA containing a high affinity binding site, but not using unlabeled DNA that lacked such a site ( Figure S1B-D) . Therefore, we consider the binding to spoIIAA, spoIIE and spoIIGA genes to be specific, despite the fact that increasing the amount of protein did not seem to cause a significant increase in the amount of DNA in the complex. Together, these results suggest that Spo0A in C. difficile might regulate the transcription of at least a subset of early sporulation genes by direct binding to their promoter regions. C. difficile Spo0A-DBD Binds to DNA Upstream of tcdB It has previously been reported that the deletion of Spo0A in C. difficile results in a significantly lower toxin production and a ,1000-fold reduction in the toxicity of culture supernatant derived from spo0A negative cells towards Vero cells [35] . Considering the absence of a homolog of the abrB repressor, direct binding of Spo0A and concomitant activation of toxin gene transcription is a likely mechanism through which this could occur. We found evidence for direct binding of Spo0A-DBD to the region upstream of tcdB, encoding one of the major clostridial toxin genes, and possibly tcdC, but this did not seem to result in lower toxin levels in our hands. We performed EMSAs using DNA upstream of tcdR (encoding a sigma factor responsible for the activation of toxin gene transcription), tcdB (encoding toxin B), tcdA (encoding toxin A). In order to test regions upstream of all open reading frames in the PaLoc, we also tested binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of tcdE (encoding a holin-like protein [50, 51] ) and tcdC (encoding a putative negative regulator of toxin production [52] [53] [54] ), even though this regulator does not have a significant effect on toxin levels under the conditions we used [55, 56] . Of the regions tested, we only observed a clear shifted species, indicative of Spo0A binding, for tcdB ( Figure 4A ); the shifted species in our EMSA assay was reversed by the addition of unlabeled DNA containing a high affinity binding site, but not by DNA lacking such a site ( Figure S1E ). For tcdC, some smearing was observed at all concentrations of proteins tested ( Figure 4A ), and there did not seem to be a clear effect of the addition of unlabeled DNA fragments ( Figure S1F ). The probes for tcdA, tcdE and tcdR were indistinguishable from those obtained with our negative control, spoVG. We wanted to determine if toxin levels in culture supernatants were directly or indirectly affected by Spo0A, as was previously suggested. We found no lower toxicity towards Vero cells of culture supernatants derived from spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type. We grew three independent biological replicates of a wild type (630Derm) or Clostron-generated spo0A mutant (CT::spo0A -a kind gift of the Minton lab) in glucose-free TTY medium. We harvested culture supernatant at late-exponential phase (approximately 7 hours post inoculation), the transition phase between exponential and stationary growth phase (approximately 9 hours post inoculation), as well as two time points in stationary phase (24 and 48 hours post inoculation) and determined the toxin endpoint titres (see Materials and Methods). In contrast to previous findings, we observed a small (#4-fold) increase in the toxicity of supernatants derived from spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type, but in all cases this difference was not statistically significant (p.0.05, independent sample t-test). In other medium (BHIS), we observed no differences at all (data not shown). We conclude that Spo0A does not positively affect toxin production in C. difficile 630Derm and the in vivo relevance of the binding to regions upstream of tcdB and/or tcdC is therefore limited under our experimental conditions. The Spo0A-box of C. difficile In B. subtilis, the binding site of Spo0A on target DNA has been well-characterized, through a combination of in vitro binding assays, determination of in vivo binding profiles and mutagenesis of regulated promoter sequences. This work has led to the identification of a conserved core motif, TGTCGAA, or Spo0A box [5, 10, 11, 45] . Depending on the analysis, this motif is flanked by one or more adenine or thymine residues [10, 11] . Interestingly, many target genes do not harbor a perfect match to this consensus sequence, but rather contain one or more degenerate motifs. The differences in these motifs may reflect different promoter architectures (e.g. AT content), modes of action (e.g. activation or repression) or levels of regulation. Spo0A genes in B. subtilis can be divided in different classes that respond to different levels of phosphorylated Spo0A [43, 57] . For C. difficile, we conclude that the Spo0A protein likely recognizes a motif that is similar to the B. subtilis Spo0A box on the basis of four lines of evidence; 1. All DNA binding/contacting residues are conserved (Fig. 2B) , 2. C. difficile Spo0A can bind with high affinity to a target of B. subtilis Spo0A (Fig. 2D) , 3. Mutagenesis of key residues in the B. subtilis Spo0A box reduces affinity of C. difficile Spo0A for DNA (Fig. 2E ) and 4. A B. subtilis Spo0A box has predictive value for DNA binding by C. difficile Spo0A (Fig. 3A) . It is conceivable that our model system, using the purified DNA binding domain, does not accurately reflect binding to all target sites, if target site selectivity is determined in part by other parts by of the full length protein. It is likely that differences do exist between the preferred binding sites for both proteins that will be evident when a comprehensive analysis is performed of in vivo DNA binding of C. difficile Spo0A; based on the limited data set of this study, a MEME analysis [58] already suggests possible differences in the extended Spo0A motif (W.K. Smits, unpublished observations). These differences may relate to the much higher AT content of C. difficile compared to B. subtilis (71 vs. 56.5%, respectively), or phosphorylation dependent dimerization, for instance. The initiation of sporulation in B. subtilis is subject to complex regulation (for review see ref [1, 59] ). The activation of Spo0A is controlled by a multi-component phosphorelay that can integrate environmental cues [60] and ensures a gradual increase in the level of phosphorylated Spo0A in the cell [57] . In addition, the transcription of the spo0A gene is controlled by multiple feedback loops. For instance, Spo0A regulates its own transcription by binding to the spo0A promoter [46] , as well as by indirectly stimulating the transcription of sigH, encoding a sigma factor that recognizes the spo0A promoter [48] . In C. difficile, there are some interesting differences and similarities in the regulatory pathways. Most notably, there seems to be no phosphorelay [2] and the phosphorylation state of Spo0A is supposedly controlled by orphan histidine kinases [35] . The transcription of spo0A in C. difficile is under control of the transition state sigma factor Sigma H [37] , as it is in B. subtilis [61] . Our data indicate that both spo0A and sigH could be targets for direct regulation by Spo0A in C. difficile (Fig. 3A) , raising the possibility of auto-regulation of spo0A. The putative direct regulation of sigH by Spo0A may reflect that the C. difficile genome does not harbor a homolog of the pleiotropic regulator AbrB, which is responsible for the Spo0A-dependent regulation of sigH in B. subtilis [48] . Consistent with a model in which spo0A is positively autoregulated, we noted a sharp increase in the levels of Spo0A as cells approach the stationary growth phase ( Figure 1C) . Downstream of Spo0A, we found binding of Spo0A to DNA upstream of several early sporulation genes, such as spoIIAA, spoIIE, and spoIIGA (Fig. 3B ). All these observations are consistent with direct regulation of these genes by Spo0A in other organisms [5, 45, 49, 62] , and the conservation of the sporulation pathway [2] . Though Spo0A is the key regulator for sporulation in Firmicutes, it regulates numerous other processes in various bacteria. In the non-pathogenic B. subtilis, for instance, the protein also affects competence development, biofilm formation, the production of and resistance to antimicrobial compounds, chromosome dynamics and aspects of phage biology [10, [14] [15] [16] . Importantly, several of these processes are indirectly regulated, through the Spo0A-dependent repression of abrB. Additionally, transcription of abrB responds already to low levels of Spo0A,P [43] . As a result these effects are detectable in late-exponential and early stationary phase, as some Spo0A is present throughout growth in B. subtilis cells. Though abrB is absent from C. difficile, this does not exclude the possibility of indirect transcriptional regulation through Spo0Adependent effects on other regulators. Alternatively, Spo0A may exert a direct effect. In Clostridium acetobutylicum and C. beijerinckii, Spo0A is a direct regulator of solvent formation, as well as sporulation [22, 23] . It seems therefore conceivable that Spo0A in C. difficile also affects aspects of metabolism. In this respect, it is important to note that also in C. difficile Spo0A is detectable from early exponential growth phase on ( Figure 1B) . We observed direct binding of C. difficile Spo0A to the promoter region of sigH (Fig. 3A) . This gene encodes the key sigma factor for the transition phase, and regulates processes outside sporulation as well [37] . Moreover, we found significant levels of Spo0A from early stationary phase on ( Fig. 1B and unpublished observations) , indicating the regulatory actions of Spo0A need not be limited to stationary phase in C. difficile. In line with this idea, we found a potential regulatory link between Spo0A and two genes that to our knowledge are not related to the sporulation process, the lipoate ligase lplA and the aliphatic sulfonates transporter ssuA (Fig. 3A) . The presence of a putative Spo0A binding site upstream of these genes, as well as the spacing compared to the start codon, is conserved in the problematic Stoke-Mandeville strain (R20291), a member of PCR ribotype 27. This could indicate that these aspects of regulation by Spo0A are conserved in multiple strains of C. difficile. It should be noted that our work so far has been limited to an in vitro analysis of Spo0A binding, and therefore does not indicate whether activation or repression of the putative target genes occurs in vivo. To answer this question, detailed transcriptome and/or proteome studies have to be performed. In order to distinguish direct from indirect effects, in vivo binding profiles of Spo0A should be performed. The antibodies generated for this study should prove to be useful for this type of experiments. Amongst the pathogenic Firmicutes, Spo0A has been reported to affect toxin production in multiple species. In B. anthracis a spo0A mutation results in elevated levels of AbrB, and concomitantly lower levels of the toxin genes pagA, cya and lef that are under AbrB control [17] . Similarly, the production of the emetic toxin cereulide in B. cereus is greatly repressed in a spo0A mutant, in an AbrB-dependent manner [63] . In contrast, Spo0A directly represses the expression of the cry toxin genes in B. thuringiensis and a spo0A mutant is therefore a hyper-producer of the insecticidal crystal protein [18, 21] . In Clostridium perfringens TpeL, a member of the large clostridial toxins just like TcdA and TcdB, is directly dependent on Spo0A [64] and also the production of enterotoxin in this organism seems to be (indirectly) dependent on sporulation [65, 66] . In C. difficile an insertional spo0A mutant generated using Clostron technology was reported to have ,10-fold reduced levels of toxin A (TcdA), both intracellularly and extracellularly as well as ,1000-fold reduced toxicity towards Vero cells, which are primarily sensitive towards toxin B (TcdB) [35] . Our in vitro binding data indicate a potential binding site for Spo0A upstream of tcdB and possibly tcdC (Fig. 4A) . However, the in vivo relevance of this binding seems limited as in our hands an independently derived but otherwise identical mutant (a kind gift of the Minton lab; [33] ) did not demonstrate a reduced toxicity towards Vero cells. In contrast, we found that in TTY medium toxin levels were slightly elevated in spo0A mutant cells compared to wild type (#2fold in exponential phase cells up to 4-fold in late-stationary phase cells). The small, and not significant, differences in toxin levels in our experiments might be attributed to differences in the susceptibility of cells for lysis rather than the production of toxin, but could also indicate a negative regulatory effect of Spo0A on toxin production. In support of the latter hypothesis, it was recently reported that a spo0A mutant of C. difficile strain R20291 (a PCR ribotypes 027/BI/NAP1 epidemic strain) demonstrates ,10fold higher toxin levels than its isogenic wild type 30 h post inoculation, and is significantly more virulent in a mouse model of disease [34] . The differences between Underwood et al [35] on the one hand and our study as well as the study of Deakin and coworkers [34] on the other hand may be explained by differences in experimental conditions, such as the medium used. However, we observed no difference in cytotoxicity between supernatant derived from wild type or spo0A mutant cells when they were grown in BHIS, a medium nearly identical to that used previously (data not shown). Alternatively, the differences could indicate integration of the group II intron at more than one location in the chromosome in the strain used in Underwood et al [35] . In the absence of a complementation experiment and/or Southern blot data, this remains to be established. In summary, our data are consistent with a model in which the regulation of the major clostridial toxins in C. difficile is not positively affected by Spo0A, in contrast to previous findings and other pathogenic Clostridia. Whether Spo0A is truly a negative regulator of toxin production remains to be confirmed using in vitro and in vivo transcription assays. In the present study we have for the first time demonstrated direct binding of the DNA binding domain of C. difficile Spo0A to putative target DNA. This work has revealed that aspects of Spo0A binding are conserved between Bacillus and C. difficile (0A box, possible auto-regulation and binding to early sporulation promoters), whereas others are not (the absence of abrB as a direct target in C. difficile, binding to DNA upstream of lplA, ssuA). The effects of Spo0A on toxin production may be similar to those observed for B. thuringiensis [18, 21] . Future work will be aimed at determining the effect of Spo0A on the transcription of the putative target genes, and carry out a comprehensive analysis of Spo0A binding in vivo. The identification of genes affected by Spo0A in C. difficile may shed light on the role of the protein in virulence and pathogenesis of this organism. Figure S1 Specificity controls for binding by Spo0A-DBD-his6. Arrows indicate the position of shifted species (DNA:protein complexes). Titrations with PCR fragments of PabrB (containing a high affinity binding site) and PtcdA (lacking such a site) correspond to approximately 0.1 nM/mL -0.03 nM/ mL. A. Comparison of binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6, Spo0A-his6 and CD2195-his6 binding to the upstream region of spoIIAA. B. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIAA is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA). C. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIE is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. D. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of spoIIGA is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. E. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of tcdB is reversed by the addition of PabrB, but not by the addition of PtcdA. F. Binding of Spo0A-DBD-his6 to the upstream region of tcdC is not or moderately affected by the addition of PabrB and/or PtcdA. (TIF) Text S1 Oligonucleotides used in this study and PCR cycling conditions for the EMSA probes. (PDF)

What are the main virulence factors in C. difficle?

Evidence for the Convergence Model: The Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Viet Nam https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4580613/ SHA: ee5b43d20a640664510cb7a540caaae4a8e19933 Authors: Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson; Epprecht, Michael; Tran, Chinh C.; Nong, Duong H.; Spencer, James H.; Nguyen, Lam; Finucane, Melissa L.; Tran, Vien D.; Wilcox, Bruce A. Date: 2015-09-23 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138138 License: cc-by Abstract: Building on a series of ground breaking reviews that first defined and drew attention to emerging infectious diseases (EID), the ‘convergence model’ was proposed to explain the multifactorial causality of disease emergence. The model broadly hypothesizes disease emergence is driven by the co-incidence of genetic, physical environmental, ecological, and social factors. We developed and tested a model of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 based on suspected convergence factors that are mainly associated with land-use change. Building on previous geospatial statistical studies that identified natural and human risk factors associated with urbanization, we added new factors to test whether causal mechanisms and pathogenic landscapes could be more specifically identified. Our findings suggest that urbanization spatially combines risk factors to produce particular types of peri-urban landscapes with significantly higher HPAI H5N1 emergence risk. The work highlights that peri-urban areas of Viet Nam have higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture than rural and urban areas. We also found that land-use diversity, a surrogate measure for potential mixing of host populations and other factors that likely influence viral transmission, significantly improves the model’s predictability. Similarly, landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production overlap were found at greater risk. These results support the convergence hypothesis in general and demonstrate the potential to improve EID prevention and control by combing geospatial monitoring of these factors along with pathogen surveillance programs. Text: Two decades after the Institute of Medicine's seminal report [1] recognized novel and reemerging diseases as a new category of microbial threats, the perpetual and unexpected nature of the emergence of infectious diseases remains a challenge in spite of significant clinical and biomedical research advances [2] . Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) (subtype H5N1) is the most significant newly emerging pandemic disease since HIV/AIDS. Its eruption in Southeast Asia in 2003-4 and subsequent spread globally to more than 60 countries fits the complex systems definition of "surprise" [3] . In this same year that IOM had published its final report on microbial threats which highlighted H5N1's successful containment in Hong Kong in 1997 [4] , massive outbreaks occurred in Southeast Asia where it remains endemic, along with Egypt's Nile Delta. Since 2003, HPAI H5N1 has killed millions of poultry in countries throughout Asia, Europe, and Africa, and 402 humans have died from it in sixteen countries according to WHO data as of January 2015. The threat of a pandemic resulting in millions of human cases worldwide remains a possibility [5] . Lederberg et al. [1] first pointed to the multiplicity of factors driving disease emergence, which later were elaborated and described in terms of 'the convergence model' [6] . The model proposes emergence events are precipitated by the intensifying of biological, environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic drivers. Microbial "adaptation and change," along with "changing ecosystems" and "economic development and land use" form major themes. Joshua Lederberg, the major intellectual force behind the studies summed-up saying "Ecological instabilities arise from the ways we alter the physical and biological environment, the microbial and animal tenants (humans included) of these environments, and our interactions (including hygienic and therapeutic interventions) with the parasites" [6] . Combining such disparate factors and associated concepts from biomedicine, ecology, and social sciences in a single framework remains elusive. One approach suggested has been to employ social-ecological systems theory that attempts to capture the behavior of so-called 'coupled natural-human systems', including the inevitable unexpected appearance of new diseases, themselves one of the "emerging properties" of complex adaptive systems (CAS) [7, 8] . The convergence model can be so adapted by incorporating the dynamics of urban, agricultural, and natural ecosystem transformations proposed with this framework. These associated multifaceted interactions including feedbacks that affect ecological communities, hosts and pathogen populations, are the proximate drivers of disease emergence. The initial HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam represent an ideal opportunity to adapt and test a CAS-convergence model. Emergence risk should be highest in the most rapidly transforming urban areas, peri-urban zones where mixes of urban-rural, modern-traditional land uses and poultry husbandry coincide most intensely. Specifically we hypothesized a positive association between the presence of HPAI outbreaks in poultry at the commune level and: 1) peri-urban areas, as defined by Saksena et al. [9] , 2) land-use diversity, and 3) co-location of intensive and extensive systems of poultry. We used the presence or absence at the commune level of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry as the dependent variable. Vietnam experienced its first HPAI H5N1 outbreak in late 2003, since then, there have been five waves and sporadic outbreaks recorded over the years [10, 11] . We chose to study the first wave (Wave 1) that ended in February 2004 and the second wave (Wave 2) that occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. We used data from the Viet Nam 2006 Agricultural Census to develop an urbanicity classification that used data collected at a single point in time (2006) but across space (10,820 communes) to infer processes of change (urbanization, land-use diversification, and poultry intensification) [9] . The 58 provinces in Vietnam (not counting the 5 urban provinces that are governed centrally) are divided into rural districts, provincial towns, and provincial cities. Rural districts are further divided into communes (rural areas) and towns, and provincial towns and cities are divided into wards (urban subdistricts) and communes. A commune in Viet Nam is thus the third level administrative subdivision, consisting of villages/hamlets. For the purpose of simplicity we will henceforth use the term "commune" to refer to the smallest administrative unit whether it is a commune, town, or ward. We included risk factors documented in previous work. We also aimed to understand the differences, if any, in risk dynamics at different scales; comparing risks at the national scale to those at two sub-national agro-ecological zones. For this purpose we chose to study the Red River and Mekong River deltas, well known hot spots of the disease. Hence we conducted two sets of analyses (waves 1 and 2) for three places (nation, Red River Delta, and Mekong Delta) producing a total of 6 wave-place analyses. Data on outbreaks were obtained from the publicly available database of Viet Nam's Department of Animal Health. Given the highly complex dynamics of the epidemics and in keeping with recent methodological trends, we used multiple modeling approaches-parametric and non-parametric-with a focus on spatial analysis. We used both 'place' oriented models that can take into account variations in factors such as policies and administration as well as 'space' oriented models that recognize the importance of physical proximity in natural phenomenon [12] . Very few empirical studies have attempted to determine whether urbanization is related to EID outbreaks or whether urbanization is associated primarily with other factors related to EID outbreaks. One immediate problem researchers face is defining what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). Some studies have used official administrative definitions of urban and rural areas, but this approach is limited in its bluntness [13] . Other studies prioritized human population density as a satisfactory surrogate [11, [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] , but this approach ignores the important fact that density is not a risk factor if it is accompanied by sufficient infrastructure to handle the population. Spencer [21] examined urbanization as a non-linear characteristic, using household-level variables such as water and sanitation services. He found evidence that increased diversity in water supply sources and sanitation infrastructure were associated with higher incidences of HPAI. These studies employed a limited definition of urbanization that lacked a well-defined characterization of peri-urbanization. Still other studies have mapped the relative urban nature of a place, a broad concept that is often referred to as 'urbanicity' [22] [23] [24] [25] . While these studies show differences in the rural/ urban nature of communities across space and time, they have been limited to small-to medium-scale observational studies; and they have failed to distinguish between different levels of "ruralness". Perhaps the best known model of peri-urbanization is McGee's concept of desakota (Indonesian for "village-town") [26] . McGee identified six characteristics of desakota regions: 1) a large population of smallholder cultivators; 2) an increase in non-agricultural activities; 3) extreme fluidity and mobility of population; 4) a mixture of land uses, agriculture, cottage industries, suburban development; 5) increased participation of the female labor force; and 6) "grey-zones", where informal and illegal activities group [26] . Saksena et al. [9] built on McGee's desakota concepts and data from the 2006 Viet Nam Agricultural Census to establish an urbanicity classification. That study identified and mapped the 10,820 communes, the smallest administrative unit for which data are collected, as being rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. This project used the Saksena classification to assess associations between urbanicity classes, other risks factors, and HPAI outbreaks. Researchers have estimated that almost 75% of zoonotic diseases are associated with landcover and land-use changes (LCLUC) [27, 28] . LCLUC such as peri-urbanization and agricultural diversification frequently result in more diverse and fragmented landscapes (number of land covers or land uses per unit of land). The importance of landscape pattern, including diversity and associated processes, which equate to host species' habitat size and distribution, and thus pathogen transmission dynamics is axiomatic though the specific mechanisms depend on the disease [29, 30] . Landscape fragmentation produces ecotones, defined as abrupt edges or transitions zones between different ecological systems, thought to facilitate disease emergence by increasing the intensity and frequency of contact between host species [31] Furthermore, fragmentation of natural habitat tends to interrupt and degrade natural processes, including interspecies interactions that regulate densities of otherwise opportunistic species that may serve as competent hosts [32] , although it is not clear if reduced species diversity necessarily increases pathogen transmission [33] . Rarely has research connected land-use diversification to final health endpoints in humans or livestock; this study attempts to link land-use diversity with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Human populations in the rapidly urbanizing cities of the developing world require access to vegetables, fruits, meat, etc. typically produced elsewhere. As theorized by von Thünen in 1826 [34] , much of this demand is met by farms near cities [35] , many in areas undergoing processes of peri-urbanization [26] . Due to the globalization of poultry trade, large-scale chicken farms raising thousands of birds have expanded rapidly in Southeast Asia and compete with existing small backyard farmers [36] . Large, enterprise-scale (15,000-100,000 birds) operations are still rare in Viet Nam (only 33 communes have such a facility). On the other hand, domestic and multinational companies frequently contract farmers to raise between 2,000 and 15,000 birds. Recent studies have examined the relative role of extensive (backyard) systems and intensive systems [15, [17] [18] [19] 37] . In much of Asia there is often a mix of commercial and backyard farming at any one location [36] . Experts have suggested that from a biosecurity perspective the co-location of extensive and intensive systems is a potential risk factor [38] . Intensive systems allow for virus evolution (e.g. Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza to HPAI) and transformation, while extensive systems allow for environmental persistence and circulation [39] . Previous studies of chicken populations as a risk factor have distinguished between production systems-native chickens, backyard chickens; flock density; commercial chickens, broilers and layers density, etc. [15, [17] [18] [19] 37] . In isolation, however, none of these number and/or density based poultry metrics adequately measures the extent of co-location of intensive and extensive systems in any given place. Intensive and extensive systems in Viet Nam have their own fairly well defined flock sizes. A diversity index of the relative number of intensive and extensive systems of poultry-raising can better estimate the effect of such co-location; this study attempts to link a livestock diversity index with the presence or absence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks at the commune level. This study investigated for the 10,820 communes of Viet Nam a wide suite of socio-economic, agricultural, climatic and ecological variables relevant to poultry management and the transmission and persistence of the HPAI virus. Many of these variables were identified based on earlier studies of HPAI (as reviewed in Gilbert and Pfeiffer [40] ). Three novel variables were included based on hypotheses generated by this project. All variables were measured or aggregated to the commune level. The novel variables were: • Degree of urbanization: We used the urbanicity classification developed by Saksena et al. [9] to define the urban character of each commune. The classification framework is based on four characteristics: 1) percentage of households whose main income is from agriculture, aquaculture and forestry, 2) percentage of households with modern forms of toilets, 3) percentage of land under agriculture, aquaculture and forestry and 4) the Normalized Differentiated Vegetation Index (NDVI). The three-way classification enabled testing for non-linear and non-monotonous responses. • Land-use diversity: We measured land-use diversity using the Gini-Simpson Diversity Index [41] . The Gini-Simpson Diversity Index is given by 1-λ, where λ equals the probability that two entities taken at random from the dataset of interest represent the same type. In situations with only one class (complete homogeneity) the Gini-Simpson index would have a value equal to zero. Such diversity indices have been used to measure land-use diversity [42] . We used the following five land-use classes: annual crops, perennial crops, forests, aquaculture and built-up land (including miscellaneous uses) for which data were collected in the 2006 Agricultural Census. The area under the last class was calculated as the difference between the total area and the sum of the first four classes. The following variables are listed according to their role in disease introduction, transmission and persistence, though some of these factors may have multiple roles. • Human population related transmission. Human population density [11, 14-16, 18, 19, 44, 45] . • Poultry trade and market. Towns and cities were assumed to be active trading places [10, 18, 37, 44, 46] . So, the distance to the nearest town/city was used as indicator of poultry trade. Trade is facilitated by access to transportation infrastructure [37, 47, 48] . So, the distance to the nearest a) national highway and b) provincial highway was used as indicator of transportation infrastructure. • Disease introduction and amplification. The densities of chicken were calculated based on commune area [15, 19, 37, 49] . • Intermediate hosts. Duck and geese densities were calculated using total commune area [11, 19, 49] . As previous studies have shown a link between scavenging in rice fields by ducks and outbreaks, we also calculated duck density using only the area under rice. • Agro-ecological and environmental risk factors. Previous studies have shown that the extent of rice cultivation is a risk factor, mainly due its association with free ranging ducks acting as scavengers [10] . We used percentage of land under rice cultivation as a measure of extent. Rice cropping intensity is also a known risk factor [11, 17, 37] . We used the mean number of rice crops per year as a measure of intensity. The extent of aquaculture is a known risk factor [10] , possibly because water bodies offer routes for transmission and persistence of the virus. The percentage of land under aquaculture was used as a metric. Proximity to water bodies increases the risk of outbreaks [47, [50] [51] [52] , possibly by increasing the chance of contact between wild water birds and domestic poultry. We measured the distance between the commune and the nearest: a) lake and b) river. Climatic variables-annual mean temperature and annual precipitation-have been associated with significant changes in risk [48, 53] . Elevation, which is associated with types of land cover and agriculture, has been shown to be a significant risk factor in Vietnam [10] . Compound Topographical Index (CTI, also known as Topographical Wetness Index) is a measure of the tendency for water to pool. Studies in Thailand and elsewhere [54] have shown that the extent of surface water is a strong risk factor, possibly due to the role of water in long-range transmission and persistence of the virus. In the absence of reliable and inexpensive data on the extent of surface water we used CTI as a proxy. CTI has been used in Ecological Niche Models (ENM) of HPAI H5N1 [55, 56] . However, given the nature of ENM studies, the effect of CTI as a risk factor has been unknown so far. CTI has been used as a risk factor in the study of other infectious and non-infectious diseases [57] . Some studies have shown that at local scales, the slope of the terrain (a component of CTI) was significantly correlated with reservoir species dominance [58] . CTI is a function of both the slope and the upstream contributing area per unit width orthogonal to the flow direction. CTI is computed as follows: CTI = ln (A s / (tan (β)) where; A s = Area Value calculated as ((flow accumulation + 1) Ã (pixel area in m 2 )) and β is the slope expressed in radians [59] . Though previous studies have indicated that Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a risk factor [10, 20, 55, 60, 61], we did not include it explicitly in our models, as the urban classification index we used included NDVI [9] . We obtained commune level data on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks from the publicly available database of the Department of Animal Health [10] . Viet Nam experienced its first major epidemic waves between December 2003 and February 2006 [10] . We chose to study the first wave (Wave 1) that ended in February 2004 and the second wave (Wave 2) that occurred between December 2004 and April 2005. In Wave 1, 21% of the communes and in Wave 2, 6% of the communes experienced outbreaks. We used data from the 1999 Population Census of Viet Nam to estimate human population per commune. We relied on data from two Agriculture Censuses of Viet Nam. This survey is conducted every five years covering all rural households and those peri-urban households that own farms. Thus about three-fourths of all of the country's households are included. The contents of the survey include number of households in major production activities, population, labor classified by sex, age, qualification, employment and major income source; agriculture, forestry and aquaculture land used by households classified by source, type, cultivation area for by crop type; and farming equipment by purpose. Commune level surveys include information on rural infrastructure, namely electricity, transportation, medical stations, schools; fresh water source, communication, markets, etc. Detailed economic data are collected for large farms. We used the 2006 Agriculture Census for most variables because the first three epidemic waves occurred between the Agricultural Censuses of 2001 and 2006 but were closer in time to the 2006 census [10] . However, for data on poultry numbers we used the 2001 Agriculture Census data set because between 1991 and 2003 the poultry population grew at an average rate of 7% annually. However, in 2004, after the first wave of the H5N1 epidemic, the poultry population fell 15%. Only by mid-2008 did the poultry population return close to pre-epidemic levels. Thus, we considered the poultry population data from the 2001 census to be more representative. We aggregated census household data to the commune level. A three-way classification of the rural-to-urban transition was based on a related study [9] . Raster data on annual mean temperature and precipitation were obtained from the World-Clim database and converted to commune level data. The bioclimatic variables were compiled from the monthly temperature and precipitation values and interpolated to surfaces at 90m spatial resolution [62] . This public database provides data on the average climatic conditions of the period 1950-2000. Elevation was generated from SRTM 90 meter Digital Elevation Models (DEM) acquired from the Consortium for Spatial Information (CGIAR-CSI). Compound Topographical Index (CTI) data were generated using the Geomorphometry and Gradient Metrics Toolbox for Arc-GIS 10.1. Prior to risk factor analysis we cleaned the data by identifying illogical values for all variables and then either assigning a missing value to them or adjusting the values. Illogical values occurred mainly (less than 1% of the cases) for land-related variables such as percentage of commune land under a particular type of land use. Next we tested each variable for normality using the BestFit software (Palisade Corporation). Most of the variables were found to follow a log-normal distribution and a log-transform was used on them. We then examined the bi-variate correlations between all the risk factors (or their log-transform, as the case may be). Correlations were analyzed separately for each place. Certain risk factors were then eliminated from consideration when |r| ! 0.5 (r is the Pearson correlation coefficient). When two risk factors were highly correlated, we chose to include the one which had not been adequately studied explicitly in previously published risk models. Notably, we excluded a) elevation (correlated with human population density, chicken density, duck density, percentage land under paddy, annual temperature and compound topographical index), b) human population density (correlated with elevation and CTI), c) chicken density (only at national level, correlated with CTI), d) duck and goose density (correlated with elevation, chicken density, percentage land under paddy, land use diversity index and CTI), e) annual temperature (correlated with elevation and CTI) and f) cropping intensity (correlated with percentage land under paddy). Considering the importance of spatial autocorrelation in such epidemics, we used two modeling approaches: 1) multi-level Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and 2) Boosted Regression trees (BRT) [63, 64] with an autoregressive term [65] . GLMM is a 'place' oriented approach that is well suited to analyzing the effect of administrative groupings, while BRT is a 'space' oriented approach that accounts for the effects of physical proximity. We began by deriving an autoregressive term by averaging the presence/absence among a set of neighbors defined by the limit of autocorrelation, weighted by the inverse of the Euclidean distance [65] . The limit of the autocorrelation of the response variable was obtained from the range of the spatial correlogram ρ (h) [66] . To determine which predictor variables to include in the two models, we conducted logistic regression modeling separately for each of them one by one but included the autoregressive term each time. We finally included only those variables whose coefficient had a significance value p 0.2 (in at least one wave-place combination) and we noted the sign of the coefficient. This choice of p value for screening risk factors is common in similar studies [15, 18, 45, 67] . We used a two-level GLMM (communes nested under districts) to take account of random effects for an area influenced by its neighbors, and thus, we studied the effect of spatial autocorrelation. We used robust standard errors for tests of fixed effects. Boosted regression trees, also known as stochastic gradient boosting, was performed to predict the probability of HPAI H5N1 occurrence and determine the relative influence of each risk factor to the HPAI H5N1 occurrence. This method was developed recently and applied widely for distribution prediction in various fields of ecology [63, 64] . It is widely used for species distribution modeling where only the sites of occurrence of the species are known [68] . The method has been applied in numerous studies for predicting the distribution of HPAI H5N1 disease [16, 51, [69] [70] [71] . BRT utilizes regression trees and boosting algorithms to fit several models and combines them for improving prediction by performing iterative loop throughout the model [63, 64] . The advantage of BRT is that it applies stochastic processes that include probabilistic components to improve predictive performance. We used regression trees to select relevant predictor variables and boosting to improve accuracy in a single tree. The sequential process allows trees to be fitted iteratively through a forward stage-wise procedure in the boosting model. Two important parameters specified in the BRT model are learning rate (lr) and tree complexity (tc) to determine the number of trees for optimal prediction [63, 64] . In our model we used 10 sets of training and test points for cross-validation, a tree complexity of 5, a learning rate of 0.01, and a bag fraction of 0.5. Other advantages of BRT include its insensitivity to co-linearity and non-linear responses. However, for the sake of consistency with the GLMM method, we chose to eliminate predictors that were highly correlated with other predictors and to make log-transforms where needed. In the GLMM models we used p 0.05 to identify significant risk factors. The predictive performances of the models were assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve. AUC is a measure of the overall fit of the model that varies from 0.5 (chance event) to 1.0 (perfect fit) [72] . A comparison of AUC with other accuracy metrics concluded that it is the most robust measure of model performance because it remained constant over a wide range of prevalence rates [73] . We used the corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) to compare each GLMM model with and without its respective suite of fixed predictors. We used SPSS version 21 (IBM Corp., New York, 2012) for GLMM and R version 3.1.0 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2014) for the BRT. For calculating the spatial correlogram we used the spdep package of R. The fourteen predictor variables we modeled (see tables) were all found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks (p 0.2) in at least one wave-place combination based on univariate analysis (but including the autoregressive term) ( Table 1) . Land-use diversity, chicken density, poultry flock size diversity and distance to national highway were found to have significant associations across five of the six wave-place combinations. power of the GLMM models, as measured by the AUC, is very good with AUC values ranging from 0.802 to 0.952 (Tables 2-7 ). The predictive power of the national models was higher than that of the delta models. The predictive power of the BRT models is good, with AUCs ranging from 0.737 to 0.914. The BRT models also had a better predictive power at the national level than at the delta level. These values are higher than those reported for Wave 1 (AUC = 0.69) and Wave 2 (AUC = 0.77) by Gilbert et al. [11] . Both Gilbert et al. [11] and this study found that at the national level the predictive performance for Wave 2 was higher than that for Wave 1. Wave 2 mainly affected the Mekong River Delta. Previous studies indicated the duck density was an important predictor [11] ; our results, however, indicated that the diversity of duck flock size was a more important predictor than duck density. Both the GLMM and BRT models found annual precipitation to be a significant factor. The GLMM model indicated a negative association; similar to what was found by studies in China [51] and in the Red River Delta [53] . A global study of human cases also found occurrence to be higher under drier conditions [74] . Generally, the role of precipitation was found to be far more significant in the deltas than for the country as a whole. The unadjusted Relative Risk (RR) of peri-urban areas in comparison with non-peri-urban areas was 1.41 and 1.60 for Waves 1 and 2, respectively. In terms of urbanicity, we found that chicken density, percentage of land under rice, percentage of land under aquaculture, flock size diversity for duck and geese, and the Compound Topographical Index (CTI) to be highest in peri-urban areas (Fig 1a-1e) . We also found that land-use diversity was higher in rural areas, but peri-urban areas had diversity levels only marginally lower (Fig 1f) . The urbanicity variable alone, however, was not found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in any place according to the GLMM model except for the urban level in Red River Delta for Wave 2 and in the Mekong River Delta for Wave 1. The BRT model ranked urbanicity as one of the least influential variables. Land-use diversity was found to be significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in both waves for Viet Nam according to the GLMM model, but at the delta level the association was significant only for Wave 2 in the Mekong River Delta. The BRT model indicated that land-use diversity highly influenced HPAI H5N1 at the national level in Wave 2. For the remaining waveplace combinations land-use diversity had middle to below-middle rank of influence. Both the GLMM and BRT models indicated that the diversity of chicken flock-size had a strong association with HPAI H5N1 for both waves at the national level. This was generally found to be true at the delta levels with some exceptions. The diversity of duck and goose flock size was also significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 in all places, but the associations were much stronger in Wave 2 than in Wave 1. The GLMM model indicated that the CTI had a very strong association with HPAI H5N1 at the national level in both waves although this was not true in the two deltas. The CTI is a steady state wetness index commonly used to quantify topographic control on hydrological processes. Accumulation numbers in flat areas, like deltas, are very large; hence the CTI was not a relevant variable in the GLMM model in these areas. The BRT model however indicated that CTI had middle to low influence in all waves and places. We found very high spatial clustering effects as indicated by the fact that in all waves and places the BRT model found the spatial autocorrelation term to have the highest rank of influence. As expected, the relative influence of the autocorrelation term at the national level was higher (60-78%) than at the delta levels (14-35%). In the GLMM models we found the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) using the entire set of 14 variables to be much lower than the AICs of a GLMM model without fixed effects. This indicated that though clustering effects were significant, our theory driven predictor variables improved model performance. A limitation of using surveillance methods for the dependent variable (poultry outbreaks) is that the data may have reporting/detection biases [11] . Under-reporting/detection in rural areas as compared to peri-urban areas is possible. We believe that the urbanicity and the shortest distance to nearest town risk factors serve as rough proxies for reporting/detection efficiency. Previous studies have tended to use human population density as a proxy for this purpose. In our study we found a strong association between human population density and urbanicity. But we acknowledge that a categorical variable such as urbanicity may provide less sensitivity than a continuous variable such as human population density in this specific context. This study explored the validity of a general model for disease emergence that combined the IOM 'convergence model' [6] and the social-ecological systems model [7, 8] , for investigating the specific case of HPAI in Vietnam. We sought to test the hypotheses that measures of urbanization, land-use diversification, and poultry intensification are correlated with outbreaks in poultry. Our results generally support the hypothesis that social-ecological system transformations are associated with H5NI outbreaks in poultry. The results presented here highlight three main findings: 1) when relevant risk factors are taken into account, urbanization is generally not a significant independent risk factor; but in peri-urban landscapes emergence factors converge, including higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture; 2) high land-use diversity landscapes, a variable not previously considered in spatial studies of HPAI H5N1, are at significantly greater risk for HPAI H5N1 outbreaks; as are 3) landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production are co-located. Only one other study has explicitly examined urbanicity in the context of HPAI H5N1. Loth et al. [17] found peri-urban areas in Indonesia were significantly associated with HPAI H5N1 cases, even based on multivariate models. Our study, however, attempted both to associate HPAI H5N1 with degree of urbanicity and to determine the features of peri-urban areas that place them at risk. When those features (i.e., chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and the fraction of land under rice or aquaculture) are included in multivariate models, the role of the urbanization variable per se diminishes. We found in the main river deltas in Viet Nam (Red River and Mekong), urbanization had no significant association with HPAI H5N1. This may be due to the fact that the deltas are more homogenous, in terms of urbanization, than the country as a whole. This is the first study to examine land-use diversity as a risk factor for HPAI H5N1. Measured by the Gini-Simpson Diversity Index of the five land-use classes on which data were collected in the 2006 Viet Nam Agricultural Census, and the presence or absence of HPAI outbreaks at the commune level, our results indicate a strong association between land-use diversity and HPAI H5N1 at the national level and in the Mekong River Delta. This metric captures both the variety of habitats and of the complexity of geospatial patterning likely associated with transmission intensity. Our results are similar to what has been observed by studies of other EIDs using fragmentation metrics (e.g. [75] [76] [77] . This is one of the few studies, however, to link landscape fragmentation to an EID disease in poultry and not just to the vector and/or hosts of the EID. Previous studies have focused on poultry production factors such as type of species, size of flocks, and extent of commercialization (e.g. [15, [17] [18] [19] . This study expands on those findings by providing evidence that when intensive and extensive systems of chicken and/or duck and geese production co-exist in the same commune, the commune experiences higher risk of disease outbreak. Future studies need to examine the biological causal mechanisms in this context. We suggest that national census data (particularly agricultural censuses) compiled at local levels of administration provide valuable information that are not available from remotely sensed data (such as poultry densities) or require a large amount of labor to map at national to larger scales (land-use diversity). Mapping land-use classes at the national scale for local administrative units (i.e., the 10,820 communes in Viet Nam) is not an insignificant task. Future studies, however, could examine the correlation between a census-based metric with metrics derived from remote sensing used to measure proportional abundance of each landcover type within a landscape [78] . Vietnam is relatively advanced in making digital national population and agricultural census data available in a format that can be linked to administrative boundaries. While other nations are beginning to develop similar capacities, in the short term the application of this method to other countries may be limited. Ultimately, both census and remotely sensed data can be used independently to map the urban transition and diversity of land use; these tools, however, may provide their greatest insights when used together. Another important contribution of this study was the discovery of the importance of CTI. So far CTI had been used only in ecological niche modeling studies of HPAI H5N1; the specific role and direction of influence of CTI had has so far been unknown. Our study, the first to use CTI as a risk factor, found it had a large positive influence on HPAI H5N1 risk at the national level. Previous studies have highlighted the role of surface water extent in the persistence and transmission of the HPAI H5N1 virus. These studies measured surface water extent as area covered by water, magnitude of seasonal flooding, distance to the nearest body of water, or other variables that are often difficult to map using remotely sensed data, especially for large area studies. CTI on the other hand has the potential to serve as an excellent surrogate which can easily be measured in a GIS database. The national and regional (delta) models differed quite considerably, both in terms of performance and significant risk factors. In the deltas we commonly found only chicken density, duck flock size diversity and annual precipitation to be significant. This suggests dynamics of risk at the commune level are strongly dependent on the spatial range of analysis, consistent with another study in the Mekong Delta [61] . Though that study's model initially included three dozen commonly known risk factors, the significant risk factors were limited to poultry flock density, proportion households with electricity, re-scaled NDVI median May-October, buffalo density and sweet potato yield. Another study in the Red River Delta [79] found that in addition to the typical poultry density metrics, only the presence of poultry traders was significant. We speculate that for smaller regions, especially for known hot-spots, the relevant risk factors are those that reflect short-range, short-term driving forces such as poultry trading, presence of live bird markets and wet markets etc. Improving model performance for smaller regions would require highly refined and nuanced metrics for poultry trading, road infrastructure, water bodies, etc.-data that are typically not available through census surveys. The differences between the national and regional models suggest that our results can inform planners making decisions at different hierarchical levels of jurisdiction: national, region and local. Our study has the potential to inform the design of future research related to the epidemiology of other EIDs in Viet Nam and elsewhere. For example, we speculate that in Southeast Asia, Japanese encephalitis, the transmission of which is associated with rice cultivation and flood irrigation [80] , may also show a strong association with peri-urbanization. In some areas of Asia these ecological conditions occur near, or occasionally within, urban centers. Likewise, Hantaan virus, the cause of Korean hemorrhagic fever, is associated with the field mouse Apodemus agrarius and rice harvesting in fields where the rodents are present [80] . Our work has demonstrated that the percentage of land under rice in peri-urban areas and rural areas is similar. Hence diseases associated with rice production are likely to peak in peri-urban areas given other risk factors such as land-use diversity, CTI, and distance to infrastructure. Our poultry flock-size diversity findings may also be relevant to understanding the dynamics of other poultry related infections such as Newcastle disease. Finally, these results suggest the validity of a general model of zoonotic disease emergence that integrates IOM's convergence model with the subsequently proposed social-ecological systems and EID framework. Thus, convergence represents the coalescence in time and space of processes associated with land-cover and land-use changes. Project results question whether the urban/rural land-use dichotomy is useful when large areas and parts of the population are caught between the two. Planners need better tools for mapping the rural-urban transition, and for understanding how the specific nature of peri-urban environments creates elevated health risk that require adaptation of existing planning, land use, and development practices.

What is Compound Topological Index and how is it related to the risk of disease transmission?

Metabolic engineering of Escherichia coli into a versatile glycosylation platform: production of bio-active quercetin glycosides https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4573293/ SHA: f4cd52975e6aa33e8c947082eda9b261952b0f8f Authors: De Bruyn, Frederik; Van Brempt, Maarten; Maertens, Jo; Van Bellegem, Wouter; Duchi, Dries; De Mey, Marjan Date: 2015-09-16 DOI: 10.1186/s12934-015-0326-1 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Flavonoids are bio-active specialized plant metabolites which mainly occur as different glycosides. Due to the increasing market demand, various biotechnological approaches have been developed which use Escherichia coli as a microbial catalyst for the stereospecific glycosylation of flavonoids. Despite these efforts, most processes still display low production rates and titers, which render them unsuitable for large-scale applications. RESULTS: In this contribution, we expanded a previously developed in vivo glucosylation platform in E. coli W, into an efficient system for selective galactosylation and rhamnosylation. The rational of the novel metabolic engineering strategy constitutes of the introduction of an alternative sucrose metabolism in the form of a sucrose phosphorylase, which cleaves sucrose into fructose and glucose 1-phosphate as precursor for UDP-glucose. To preserve these intermediates for glycosylation purposes, metabolization reactions were knocked-out. Due to the pivotal role of UDP-glucose, overexpression of the interconverting enzymes galE and MUM4 ensured the formation of both UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose, respectively. By additionally supplying exogenously fed quercetin and overexpressing a flavonol galactosyltransferase (F3GT) or a rhamnosyltransferase (RhaGT), 0.94 g/L hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and 1.12 g/L quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) could be produced, respectively. In addition, both strains showed activity towards other promising dietary flavonols like kaempferol, fisetin, morin and myricetin. CONCLUSIONS: Two E. coli W mutants were engineered that could effectively produce the bio-active flavonol glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin starting from the cheap substrates sucrose and quercetin. This novel fermentation-based glycosylation strategy will allow the economically viable production of various glycosides. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12934-015-0326-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: Flavonoids are a class of plant secondary metabolites, which are chemically characterized by a 15-carbon backbone that consists of two phenyl rings and a heterocyclic ring. To date, over 10,000 flavonoids have been characterized from various plants, which are classified according to their chemical structure, i.e., the number and presence of hydroxyl groups and further functional group modifications into various subgroups, such as anthoxanthins, flavanones, and flavanonols [1, 2] . In recent years flavonoids have garnered much attention from various application domains because of the various beneficial effects on human health that have been attributed to them, such as anticancer [3] and antioxidant [4] to anti-inflammatory [5] , antimicrobial [6] and antiviral [6, 7] effects. As final step in their biosynthesis, flavonoids are often glycosylated which has a profound effect on their solubility, stability and bio-activity [8, 9] . For example, the best studied flavonol quercetin, which makes up to 75 % of our daily flavonoid intake, predominantly occurs as different glycosides. Over 350 different quercetin glycoforms have been reported to date with varying pharmacological properties [10, 11] . In this context, hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) ( Fig. 1) have gained a lot of attention as valuable products for the pharmaceutical industry e.g., as powerful antioxidants with cytoprotective effects [12] [13] [14] [15] and as promising antiviral agents that block replication of the influenza virus [16] or inhibit the viruses hepatitis B [17] and SARS [18] . Furthermore, they have been attributed with anti-inflammatory [19, 20] , antidepressant [21, 22] , apoptotic [23] and antifungal [24] activities, rendering them interesting therapeutics resulting in a steadily increasing market demand. To date, the majority of quercetin and its glycosides are extracted from plant material, which is generally a laborious and low-yielding process requiring many purification steps [25] . In vitro plant cell cultures or engineered plants can be used to overcome the low yields and improve production [26] [27] [28] , however since metabolic engineering of plants is both very controversial and still in its infancy [29] , this approach is often restricted to small-scale production. Although chemical synthesis of quercetin (glycosides) has proven to be feasible [30] [31] [32] , stereoselective formation of glycosidic linkages is often hampered by the presence of various reactive groups [33] , which requires many protecting and deprotecting steps [34] . In addition, the generation of toxic waste and a low atomefficiency [35] render these production processes neither sustainable nor economically viable. As a result, in the last two decades enormous efforts have been invested in the development of alternative production methods for these specialized (secondary) plant metabolites [36] . Advances in the fields of protein engineering, systems and synthetic biology have accelerated these efforts to transform model organisms like Escherichia coli and Saccharomyces cerevisiae in real microbial cell factories for the sustainable production of flavonoids [37] [38] [39] . Subsequently, strategies for the in vivo glycosylation of flavonoids have also been developed. These are typically based on both the overexpression of specific glycosyltransferases, which transfer a sugar residue from an activated nucleotide sugar to an aglycon in a stereoand regioselective way, and the engineering or introduction of the targeted nucleotide sugar pathway. In this way, Fig. 1 Transformation of E. coli W into a sucrose-based galactosylation and rhamnosylation platform. The metabolic engineering strategy applied makes use of several gene deletions (indicated in red) and overexpressions of genes (indicated in green). The rational of a split metabolism is applied, whereby sucrose is divided by sucrose phosphorylase (BaSP) in fructose to be used for growth and a glucose 1-phosphate as activated precursor for UDP-glucose. The latter is a universal pivot molecule for the formation of UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose, interconversions catalyzed by the enzymes GalE and MUM4, respectively. To ensure growth-coupled production, various genes, involved in the metabolization of these UDPsugars and their precursors, were knocked out (shown in red). The production of the bioactive quercetin glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin was chosen to evaluate the versatility of the engineered production platform. Finally, the introduction of either the glycosyltransferase F3GT or RhaGT ensures efficient galactosylation or rhamnosylation, respectively various quercetin glycosides have already been produced in E. coli such as the naturally occurring 3-O-glucoside [40] , 3-O-xyloside [41] and 3,7-O-bisrhamnoside [42] , or the new-to-nature quercetin 3-O-(6-deoxytalose) [43] . However, despite these engineering efforts, the reported product rates and titers are still in the milligram range, rendering these microbial production hosts unsuitable for industrial applications. The developed production processes are typically biphasic bioconversion processes using resting cells, which makes it difficult to improve production rates [44] . Furthermore, such systems often entail expensive growth media or the addition of enzyme inducers, making the overall process very costly. To tackle these problems, we previously developed an efficient platform for the glucosylation of small molecules in E. coli W [45] . Through metabolic engineering, a mutant was created which couples the production of glucosides to growth, using sucrose as a cheap and sustainable carbon source. By introducing the sucrose phosphorylase from Bifidobacterium adolescentis (BaSP) sucrose can be split into fructose to be used for growth purposes and glucose 1-phosphate (glc1P) to be used as precursor for UDP-glucose (UDP-glc) formation ( Fig. 1) . To impede the conversion of glc1P into biomass precursors, several endogenous genes involved in its metabolization such as phosphoglucomutase (pgm) and glucose-1-phosphatase (agp) were knocked out. Subsequently, glc1P can efficiently be channeled towards UDP-glc by overexpressing the uridylyltransferase from Bifidobacterium bifidum (ugpA). Metabolization of UDP-glc is prevented by knocking out the UDP-sugar hydrolase (ushA) and the galactose operon (galETKM). However, in view of the pivotal role of UDP-glc in the production of a large variety of UDP-sugars, this glucosylation system can easily be extended towards other UDP-sugars, such as UDP-galactose (UDP-gal), UDPrhamnose (UDP-rha) and UDP-glucuronate. In the present contribution, this previously developed E. coli W-based glucosylation platform is transformed into a platform for galactosylation and rhamnosylation ( Fig. 1) , whose potential is demonstrated using the galactosylation and rhamnosylation of exogenously fed quercetin yielding hyperoside and quercitrin, respectively, as case study. Escherichia coli W is a fast-growing non-pathogenic strain which tolerates osmotic stress, acidic conditions, and can be cultured to high cell densities, making it an attractive host for industrial fermentations [46] . Moreover, E. coli W is able to grow on sucrose as sole carbon source [46] , which is an emerging feedstock for the production of bio-products. Hence, E. coli W was selected as host for sucrose-based in vivo glycosylation. Prior to the production of the glycosides hyperoside and quercitrin in E. coli W, the toxicity of their aglycon quercetin was investigated. To this end, the wild type (WT) strain was grown on minimal sucrose medium containing different concentrations of quercetin (0, 0.15 and 1.5 g/L). The specific growth rates (h −1 ) (0.96 ± 0.06, 0.92 ± 0.05 and 0.87 ± 0.06, respectively) were not significantly different (p ANOVA = 0.12) nor from the one previously determined for the WT [45] (p = 0.69, p = 0.98 and p = 0.68, respectively). On the other hand, the optical density at 600 nm after 24 h incubation (6.36 ± 0.12, 5.18 ± 0.16 and 4.77 ± 0.20, respectively) was lower (about 20 %) when quercetin was added (p = 0.0002 and p = 0.0001). No significant difference in optical density could be observed between 0.15 and 1.5 g/L quercetin (p = 0.14). In view of the above, it was opted to add 1.5 g/L quercetin to evaluate the potential of the developed glycosylation platform. To evaluate the in vivo glycosylation potential, strains sGAL1 and sRHA1, which constitutively express the flavonol 3-O-galactosyltransferase from Petunia hybrida and the flavonol 3-O-rhamnosyltransferase from A. thaliana, respectively, were cultured in minimal medium with 1.5 g/L of quercetin for 16 h. TLC analysis of the supernatants of both cultures yielded two new yellow product spots. The TLC spot obtained from the sGAL1 culture, which had the same retention time as the hyperoside standard (R f = 0.5), was subsequently purified and analyzed. Both NMR and MS analysis confirmed the production of quercetin 3-O-galactoside. However, the product spot obtained from the sRHA1 culture had a different retention factor (R f = 0.55) than the quercitrin standard (R f = 0.74), and was identified as isoquercitrin (quercetin 3-O-glucoside). As opposed to other reports on wild type E. coli strains expressing RhaGT, which simultaneously produced quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside) and isoquercitrin [47, 48] , no rhamnoside could be detected. Examination of the E. coli W genome revealed that the gene cluster responsible for the endogenous production of dTDP-rhamnose, which functions as an alternative rhamnosyldonor for RhaGT in E. coli B and K12 derivatives [47] , was not present [46, 49] . In a follow-up experiment, sGAL1 and sRHA1 were grown on minimal medium with two different concentrations (0.15 and 1.5 g/L) of quercetin. Growth and glycoside formation were monitored during 30 h. The final titers (C p ) and specific productivities (q p ) are shown in Fig. 2 . Remarkably, an increase in quercetin concentration resulted in a two to threefold increase in productivity and titer, indicating that quercetin supply is rate-limiting and crucial for efficient in vivo glycosylation. However, while sGAL1 continuously produced hyperoside during the exponential phase, which is also reflected in the relatively high specific productivity, sRHA1 only started to accumulate significant amounts of isoquercitrin at the end of the exponential phase. This production start coincides with a reduction in specific growth rate, which dropped from 0.35 ± 0.04 to 0.06 ± 0.01 h −1 . As described in detail in the Background section, we previously metabolically engineered E. coli W to create a platform for in vivo glucosylation of small molecules [45] . In the original base glucosylation strain, sucrose phosphorylase encoded by BaSP was located on a mediumcopy plasmid and transcribed from a medium-strong constitutive promoter (P22) [50] . For reasons of comparison and flexibility, it was opted to integrate BaSP in the genome of E. coli W. In addition, chromosomal integration is advantageous because of a significant increase in gene stability. Since the level of gene expression can considerably be impacted by the genome integration site [51] due to structural differences such as supercoiling DNA regions, two different DNA sites were assessed for BaSP integration, i.e., melA and glgC, which encode an α-galactosidase and a glucose-1-phosphate adenylyltransferase, respectively. To this end, an adapted knockin-knockout procedure for large DNA fragments was applied, which is schematically shown in Additional file 1: Figure S2 . BaSP under control of promoter P22 was knocked in at the two different loci in E. coli W ΔcscAR, which resulted in the E. coli W strains ΔcscAR ΔmelA::L4-P22-BaSP-L5 and ΔcscAR ΔglgC::L4-P22-BaSP-L5. Their maximal specific growth rate (µ max ) on minimal sucrose medium, which is shown in Fig. 3 , was compared to the original strain ΔcscAR + pBaSP. The influence of the knockin locus on the maximal specific growth rate is clear. Interestingly, integration at the melA locus resulted in a strain with a µ max which was not significantly different from the reference strain ΔcscAR + pBaSP. In view of the latter and considering the aimed growth-coupled production, it was opted to integrate BaSP at the melA locus leading to the final production base strain E. coli W ΔcscAR Δpgm Δagp ΔushA ΔlacZYA::P22-lacY ΔgalETKM ΔmelA::L4-P22-BaSP-L5 (sGLYC) as shown in Table 1 . In nature, UDP-glc serves as a pivot molecule in the formation of a variety of UDP-sugars [44] . For example, using the interconverting enzymes UDP-glucose 4-epimerase (GalE) and UDP-rhamnose synthase (MUM4) UDP-glc can be converted to UDP-gal and UDP-rha, respectively. Though GalE is natively present in E. coli W an alternative homologous epimerase (GalE2) from B. bifidum was also selected and cloned due to the Fig. 2 Comparison of the specific glycoside productivities (q p ) and glycoside titers (C p ) for strains sGAL1, which produces the 3-O-galactoside, and sRHA1, which produces the 3-O-glucoside, when grown for 30 h on minimal medium containing 0.15 or 1.5 g/L of quercetin. Error bars represent standard deviations tight and complex regulation of GalE expression in E. coli W. On the other hand, UDP-rhamnose synthesis is restricted to plants. Due to lack of the rfb cluster [46] E. coli W is even unable to form endogenous dTDP-rhamnose as alternative rhamnosyl donor. Hence, the MUM4 gene from A. thaliana was expressed from plasmid pMUM4 to achieve UDP-rhamnose formation in E. coli (Fig. 1) . The constructed galactosylation (sGAL) and rhamnosylation (sRHA) strains were grown on minimal medium with two levels (0.15 and 1.5 g/L) of quercetin. Growth and production were monitored to determine the specific productivities, as shown in Fig. 4 . Again, higher extracellular quercetin concentrations resulted in a fivefold increase in q p . However, no significant difference in productivity was observed between sGAL2 and sGAL3 at 1.5 g/L quercetin, indicating that UDP-galactose formation is as efficient with both GalE homologs and not likely the rate limiting step. With sGAL3, the highest hyperoside productivity (68.7 mg/g CDW/h) and titer (0.94 g/L) were obtained, the latter being 3.5-fold higher compared to sGAL1. In contrast to sRHA1, TLC analysis of the supernatant of the cultures of sRHA2 and sRHA3 resulted in a product spot with a retention factor that corresponds to quercitrin, which was confirmed by MS analysis, thus showing in vivo activity of MUM4. A quercitrin titer of 1.18 g/L and specific productivity of 47.8 mg/g CDW/h were obtained after 30 h incubation of sRHA3 when 1.5 g/L quercetin was added to the medium, which corresponded to a 53 % conversion. Also 51 mg/L of isoquercitrin was produced extracellularly which corresponds with a quercitrin:isoquercitrin production ratio of 24:1. This suggests the preference of RhaGT for UDP-rhamnose when different UDP-sugar donors are present. Possible explanations for the significantly lower specific productivity (fivefold decrease) of sRHA2 as compared to sRHA3 are either a higher metabolic burden [52] caused by the two plasmid system or a too limited activity of the native GalU, which could be insufficient for adequate UDP-glc formation [45] . To demonstrate the scalability of the developed bioprocess, strain sGAL3 was cultured in a 1-L bioreactor, which also ensures a constant pH set at 6.80 and avoid oxygen limitation. A detailed overview of the consumption of sucrose, growth and hyperoside production is given in Fig. 5 . After a lag-phase, the strain displayed a growth rate of 0.32 ± 0.02 h −1 while simultaneously producing hyperoside. The observed specific productivity (65.9 ± 2.6 mg/g CDW/h) was comparable to the one obtained on shake flask scale. When nearly all quercetin was converted, hyperoside formation slowed down, which can be explained either by the observed correlation between quercetin concentration and q p , or by the reported reversibility of F3GT [53] . It is likely that further improvements in titer and productivity can be realized by optimizing the supply of quercetin using a fed-batch system. To the best of our knowledge, the results obtained in this study with the engineered sGAL and sRHA strains for the production of hyperoside and quercitrin are the highest reported to date both in terms of titer and production rate. The maximal production rate obtained in this contribution was 6 to 50-fold higher compared to the maximal production rates (r p,max ) of processes reported in the literature [47, 54] as is illustrated in Fig. 6 . The increased performance, in terms of titer and productivity, obtained with the developed platform can be attributed to the use of a split metabolism in combination with optimally rerouting the flux from glucose 1-phosphate towards UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose. The undesired conversion of the activated sugars into biomass Fig. 3 Effect of the chromosomal integration locus of the knockin of BaSP on the growth rate. Strains were grown in shake flasks and the resulting maximal growth rates (µ max ) were compared with E. coli W ΔcscAR with plasmid-based BaSP expression (+pBaSP). Error bars represent standard deviations is impeded by gene deletions, which guarantees a high product yield. In addition, since biomass formation, which is fueled by the fructose moiety of sucrose, and glycoside synthesis go hand in hand and subsequently are performed at the same time at a high rate, a high productivity is equally guaranteed (one-step fermentation process). Besides quercetin also other flavonols such as kaempferol, fisetin, morin and myricetin significantly contribute to our daily flavonoid intake, which also have extremely diverse beneficial effects [55, 56] . As the sugar moiety is a major determinant of the intestinal absorption of dietary flavonoids and their subsequent bioactivity [57, 58] , the To this end, strains sGAL3 and sRHA3 were grown in tubes with 5 mL minimal medium, each containing 1.5 g/L of either kaempferol, myricetin, morin or fisetin. Growth and production were monitored over 48 h and various spots were observed on TLC with similar retention factors as hyperoside and quercitrin. Mass spectrometry was used to identify the compounds produced, which confirmed the in vivo galactosylation of myricetin, kaempferol, morin and fisetin ( Table 2 ). All compounds occurred with an m/z of [M + 114], due to complexation with trifluoroacetic acid from the mobile phase. The galactoside of morin was produced at a slow rate, which is in accordance to the very low in vitro activity of F3GT towards this flavonol [53] . A possible explanation for this limited activity may be the presence of an unusual hydroxyl group at the 2′ position, which may sterically hinder deprotonation and consequent galactosylation of morin at hydroxyl group 3 [59] . Incubation of sRHA3 with the different flavonols investigated showed two distinct glycoside spots on TLC, which corresponded to the 3-O-rhamnoside and 3-O-glucoside. Kaempferol proved to be the best substrate for RhaGT and was predominantly rhamnosylated (8:1 ratio), with a titer exceeding 400 mg/L, which is twofold higher than previously reported [47] . Fisetin on the other hand was efficiently glucosylated, yet the formation of its rhamnoside was not as efficient, with a titer below 5 mg/L. A similar preference towards glucoside formation was also observed with myricetin and morin, which indicates that the positioning of the hydroxyl groups is the determining factor for glycosylation with RhaGT. The production of the desired rhamnosides, galactosides or glucosides may be improved considerably by using UGTs that are more specific towards certain flavonols and UDP-sugars. Transformation of the corresponding UGTs in the developed in vivo glycosylation strains presents a promising alternative for the large-scale production of various flavonol glycoforms, which are to date mainly extracted from plant material. On the other hand, due to the pivotal role of UDP-glc, various other UDP-sugars can be formed in vivo (e.g. UDP-glucuronate, UDP-xylose, UDP-arabinose). In combination with the modularity of the developed glycosylation platform, which permits rapid introduction of any UGT or UDP-sugar pathway, virtually any glycoside can be produced. Hence, this demonstrates that the proposed microbial platform is a robust, versatile and efficient microbial cell factory for the glycosylation (e.g. glucosylation, rhamnosylation, galactosylation) of small molecules. Although obtained productivities are the highest reported today and compete with the current production processes, further improvement can be limited due to solubility issues of the aglycon or of the glycoside. To this end follow-up research can focus on further metabolic engineering (e.g. introduction of the aglycon pathway allowing in vivo gradually production of the aglycon) or on process optimization [e.g. 2-phase (bilayer) fermentation which enables in situ recovery] to improve these issues. In this contribution, a biotechnological platform was developed for the galactosylation and rhamnosylation of small molecules, such as secondary metabolite natural products, starting from a previously created glucosylation host. To this end, the routes to convert UDP-glucose into UDP-galactose and UDP-rhamnose were introduced by expressing a UDP-glucose epimerase (galE) and a UDP-rhamnose synthase (MUM4), respectively. As a proof of concept, the bio-active flavonol quercetin was selected for galactosylation and rhamnosylation, yielding hyperoside (quercetin 3-O-galactoside) and quercitrin (quercetin 3-O-rhamnoside), respectively. Next, the flavonol 3-O-galactosyltransferase (F3GT) from Petunia hybrida and the flavonol 3-O-rhamnosyltransferase from Arabidopsis thaliana (RhaGT) were overexpressed in the metabolically engineered E. coli W mutants. The strains created were able to produce 940 mg/L of hyperoside and 1176 mg/L of quercitrin at specific production rates of 68.7 mg/g CDW/h and 47.8 mg/g CDW/h, respectively, which are the highest reported to date. Interestingly, both GTs showed in vivo activity towards other dietary flavonols, whereby for example over 400 mg/L of kaempferol 3-O-rhamnoside could be formed extracellularly. All plasmids used were constructed using Gibson assembly [60] or CLIVA [61] . All PCR fragments were amplified using Q5 polymerase from New England Biolabs (Ipswich, Massachusetts). Oligonucleotides were purchased from IDT (Leuven, Belgium). The plasmids and bacterial strains used in this study are listed in Table 1 . A list of primers for the creation of gene knockouts/knockins and for the cloning of the expression plasmids is given in Additional file 2: Table S1 . E. coli DH5α was used for plasmid cloning and propagation, while E. coli W was used for expression of the production plasmids and the creation of gene knockouts and knockins. Hyperoside, quercitrin, isoquercitrin, kaempferol and myricetin were purchased from Carbosynth (Berkshire, UK). All other chemicals used were purchased from Sigma Aldrich (Germany) unless otherwise indicated. The expression plasmids for the prod uction of hyperoside and quercitrin were constructed as depicted in Additional file 3: Figure S1A Figure S1D ). The galE [Genbank: JW0742] and galE2 [Genbank: KJ543703] sequences were amplified from the genomic DNA of E. coli and Bifidobacterium bifidum, respectively. CLIVA assembly resulted in the intermediary plasmid pBaSP/F3GT/UgpA ( Figure S1A ), which was subsequently used for the amplification of the F3GT/ UgpA backbone. Gibson assembly of the GalE or GalE2 inserts with this backbone resulted in the final galactosylation plasmids pGalE/F3GT/UgpA and pGalE2/F3GT/ UgpA, respectively ( Figure S1B ). Similarly, MUM4 and RhaGT were introduced using a 3-pieces Gibson assembly ( Figure S1C ), resulting in the final rhamnosylation plasmid pMUM4/RhaGT/UgpA. The overall E. coli W knockout mutants were created using the one step deletion system of Datsenko and Wanner [62] . The strategy for chromosomal integration of BaSP under control of the constitutive promoter P22 flanked by L4 and L5 at the melA and glgC loci is depicted and explained in Additional file 1: Figure S2 . Transformants were plated on minimal sucrose medium agar plates and grown overnight for screening. The in-house strain E. coli W ΔcscAR Δpgm Δagp ΔushA ΔlacZYA::P22-lacY ΔgalETKM [45] was used for the chromosomal integration of L4-P22-BaSP-L5 at the melA site, yielding the base strain sGLYC (Table 1) . This strain and the E. coli W wild type were transformed with the production plasmids described above, resulting in the galactosylation (sGAL) and rhamnosylation (sRHA) strains given in Table 1 . Composition of LB and minimal sucrose medium was described previously [45] . Minimal medium agar plates with sucrose (50 g/L) had the same composition as minimal sucrose medium, but contained additionally 15 g/L of agarose. The agarose and salts were autoclaved separately at 121 °C for 21 min. Sucrose was filter sterilized through a 0.22 µm corning filter (Fisher, Belgium) and heated for 1 min in a microwave oven at 800 W prior to mixing it with the warm agarose and salt solutions. 1 mL/L of mineral solution [45] was sterilely added prior to pouring the plates. Escherichia coli W mutant precultures were grown in 5 mL LB medium with the antibiotics (50 μg/mL kanamycin or carbenicillin) required for maintenance and selection of the plasmids. The cultures were grown for 16 h at 37 °C and 200 rpm and used for the 2 % inoculation of 100 mL minimal sucrose medium in 500 mL shake flasks. For the production of hyperoside and quercitrin, quercetin was added to the minimal medium at a concentration of 0.15 or 1.5 g/L. Growth conditions were the same as previously described [45] . Samples were taken at regular intervals from the broth and, after centrifugation, the supernatant was used for the analysis and quantification of sugars. For the analysis of quercetin and its glycosides, 200 µL of the culture was collected and extracted with 800 µL ethyl acetate. The organic layer was collected, evaporated in a SpeedVac ™ vacuum concentrator (Thermo Fisher, USA) and dissolved in 200 µL of DMSO for HPLC quantification. The bioreactor set-up and fermentation conditions used are the same as previously described [45] . Production experiments were performed on minimal sucrose medium without MOPS buffer and with the addition of quercetin as acceptor. Culture samples were primarily analyzed by TLC on Silica gel 60 F 254 precoated plates (Merck, Germany). All plates were run in a closed TLC chamber and developed using standard visualization techniques and agents: UV fluorescence (254 nm) or by staining with 10 % (v/v) H 2 SO 4 and subsequent charring. The mobile phase for detecting the various flavonols and corresponding glycosides consisted of an ethyl acetate:acetic acid:formic acid:water (100:11:11:27 v/v) mixture [63] . Product spot intensities of other flavonol glycosides were processed and quantified using ImageJ [64] . HPLC quantification of sucrose, fructose and glucose was performed using an X-bridge Amide column (35 μm, Waters, USA) as described previously [45] . Quercetin, hyperoside, quercitrin and isoquercitrin were detected with the method described by Pandey et al. [41] using a Varian HPLC system (Agilent technologies, California). Mass spectrometry for determination of the various flavonol glycosides was performed with a Micromass Quattro LC (McKinley Scientific, USA). Detection was performed in negative mode ESI-224 MS with a capillary voltage of 2.53 kV, a cone voltage of 20 V, cone and desolvation gas flows of 93 and 420 L/h, and source and cone temperatures of 150 and 350 °C, respectively. Quercetin glycosides were extracted from the broth with an equal volume of ethyl acetate after which the organic layer was evaporated to dryness. The remaining product was dissolved in the solvent system described above and run on a preparative TLC plate. The band containing hyperoside (R f 0.53) or quercitrin (R f 0.75) was scraped off, extracted with ethyl acetate and evaporated to yield a bright yellow powder. Products were confirmed by NMR. Spectra were reported elsewhere [47, 65] .

What characteristics does glycosylation have on flavonoids?

A novel anti-mycobacterial function of mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphatase-1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2804704/ SHA: f6ed1f1e9999e57793addb1c9c54f61c7861a995 Authors: Cheung, Benny KW; Yim, Howard CH; Lee, Norris CM; Lau, Allan SY Date: 2009-12-17 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2172-10-64 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the world. To combat against this pathogen, immune cells release cytokines including tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), which is pivotal in the development of protective granulomas. Our previous results showed that Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG), a mycobacterium used as a model to investigate the immune response against MTB, stimulates the induction of TNF-α via mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) in human blood monocytes. Since MAPK phosphatase-1 (MKP-1) is known to regulate MAPK activities, we examined whether MKP-1 plays a role in BCG-induced MAPK activation and cytokine expression. RESULTS: Primary human blood monocytes were treated with BCG and assayed for MKP-1 expression. Our results demonstrated that following exposure to BCG, there was an increase in the expression of MKP-1. Additionally, the induction of MKP-1 was regulated by p38 MAPK and extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2). Surprisingly, when MKP-1 expression was blocked by its specific siRNA, there was a significant decrease in the levels of phospho-MAPK (p38 MAPK and ERK1/2) and TNF-α inducible by BCG. CONCLUSIONS: Since TNF-α is pivotal in granuloma formation, the results indicated an unexpected positive function of MKP-1 against mycobacterial infection as opposed to its usual phosphatase activity. Text: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the world, especially in the developing countries [1] . The disease is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) and approximately one third of the world's population has been infected by this pathogen. In a recent report, World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that there are 9.2 million new TB cases around the world in 2006 [1] . In response to MTB infection, induction of cytokines by immune cells is an important defense mechanism. The infected macrophages secrete intercellular signaling factors, proinflammatory cytokines, to mediate the inflammatory response leading to the formation of granuloma and induction of T-cell mediated immunity [2] . In order to understand TB pathogenesis, signaling pathways induced by mycobacteria have long been a subject of interest. Mitogen activated protein kinases (MAPKs) including extracellular signal-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1/2), p38 MAPK, and c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) have been implicated as important cellular signaling molecules activated by mycobacteria [3] . Previous reports have shown that p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 are required in the induction of TNF-α expression in human monocytes infected with M. tuberculosis H37Rv [4] . We have further revealed the significant role of MAPKs in the signal transduction events of mycobacterial activation of primary human blood monocytes (PBMo) leading to cytokine expressions via the interaction with PKR [5] . However, the subsequent events as to how MAPK is regulated and how such regulation affects cytokine production in response to mycobacteria remain to be elucidated. Since MAPKs are activated by phosphorylation, dephosphorylation of MAPKs seems to be an efficient process to inactivate their activities. It can be achieved by specific protein kinase phosphatases which can remove the phosphate group from MAPKs. Examples of these phosphatases include tyrosine phosphatases, serine/threonine phosphatases, and dual-specificity phosphatases (DUSPs). Some DUSPs are also known as MAPK phosphatases (MKPs) [6] [7] [8] . Currently, there are at least 10 MKPs identified, while MKP-1 is the most studied member of the family. The regulatory role of MKP-1 on cytokine induction is best demonstrated by MKP-1 knockout (KO) macrophages in response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a cell wall component of Gram-negative bacteria. MKP-1 KO macrophages showed prolonged phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and JNK as well as increased production of TNF-α in response to LPS treatment [9] . Consistent with these results, another group further revealed that LPS-treated MKP-1 KO bone marrow-derived macrophages show increased AP-1 DNA-binding activity [10] . Also, they showed that LPS-induced MKP-1 expression is dependent on myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88) and TIR domain-containing adaptor inducing IFN-β (TRIF) [10] , thus demonstrating the role of MKP-1 in signal transduction. Not only LPS, other TLR inducers including CpG, peptidoglycan, poly IC, and Pam 3 Cys can regulate cytokine expressions including TNF-α, IL-10 via MKP-1 activities [10, 11] . In these processes, MKP-1 serves to mitigate the undesirable effects of septic shock and maintain organ functions by restraining the inflammatory responses following bacterial infection. Another example of MKP-1 function is the immune response to Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus), a Gram positive bacteria. There are higher levels of cytokine production including TNF-α, IL-6, and MIP-1α in MKP-1 KO mice infected with S. aureus [12] . Also, the mice would have a rapid development of multiorgan dysfunction as well as faster mortality rate upon challenge with heat-killed S. aureus [12] . Taken together, these results suggest that MKP-1 protects the host from overactivation of the immune system in response to Gram negative or Gram positive bacteria. In the past, it was believed that different MKP/DUSP family members have overlapping functions. However, the emergence of DUSP2 turned the concept up side down [13] . It was shown that DUSP2 behaves differently and is opposite to the function as stated above. In DUSP2 KO cells, they produced less inflammatory mediators, implying that DUSP2 may play a role in mediating instead of limiting inflammation. For instances, when DUSP2 KO macrophages were treated with LPS, there were less TNF, IL-6, nitric oxide, IL-12-producing cells when compared to those of the wild type counterparts [13] . When the DUSP2 KO bone marrow-derived mast cells were first sensitized with immunoglobulin E (IgE) receptor (FcεRI) and then stimulated with dinitrophenol-heat stable antigen, they produced lower TNF mRNA levels, diminished IL-6 production, less phosphorylation of ERK1/2, p38 MAPK, and less transcriptional activities by Elk1 and NFAT-AP-1 [13] . These unexpected positive regulations of immune cell functions by DUSP2 have been hypothesized to be due to crosstalks between MAPKs [13] . Stimulation of KO mast cells and macrophages showed increases in phosphorylation of JNK. Moreover, inhibition of JNK by small molecule inhibitors showed increases in phosphorylation of ERK [13] . The authors also showed that there were physical interactions of DUSP2 with ERK2, DUSP2 with JNK2, as well as DUSP2 and p38 MAPK after stimulation of the cells with dinitrophenol-heat stable antigen. Nevertheless, the details of the crosstalks between MAPKs and phosphatases need further investigation. Thus, the MKP family plays a critical role in the regulation of immune responses. Innate immune response protects the host from MTB infection by secretion of cytokines including TNF-α in immune cells. Meanwhile, MAPK is one of the critical proteins in the regulation of immunity and cytokine expression. Since MAPK is regulated by MKP-1 in response to LPS and the activation of MAPK is important in BCGinduced cytokine expression, we hypothesize that MKP-1 plays a critical role in the immune regulation of BCG in human monocytes. We examined the involvement of MKP-1 in BCG-induced MAPK activation and its consequent cytokine expression. Here, we present evidences that MKP-1 plays an unexpected role in the regulation of cytokine induction by BCG through its control of MAPK phosphorylation. It has been reported that many inducers including growth factors, LPS, peptidoglycan, and dexamethasone can stimulate the expression of MKP-1 in human macrophages, microglia, mast cells or fibroblasts [6] . To investigate the role of different TLR inducers in MKP-1 induction process in human blood monocytes, the level of MKP-1 mRNA was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) method. PBMo were isolated from primary human blood mononuclear cells and stimulated with Pam 3 Cys (TLR2 agonist), poly IC (TLR3 agonist), or LPS (TLR4 agonist) for 1 and 3 hours. Following exposure to Pam 3 Cys or LPS, there were significant inductions of MKP-1 mRNA levels within 1 hour of treatment ( Figure 1A ). These effects on MKP-1 induction continued for 3 hours post-treatment with Pam 3 Cys ( Figure 1A ). In contrast, poly IC did not induce MKP-1 ( Figure 1A ). The results indicate that different inducers showed differential up-regulation of MKP-1 expression. LPS has been extensively used to demonstrate the role of MKP-1 in immune response both in vivo and in vitro [9, 12] . To establish a foundation for interpretation of subsequent experimental results, LPS was used as a positive control for the induction of MKP-1 expression. To determine the levels of MKP-1 in response to LPS, kinetics of MKP-1 transcription were determined by QPCR. There was a significant induction of MKP-1 mRNA, which peaked as early as 1 hour upon LPS stimulation, and the levels gradually decreased over a course of 6 hours. These results showed that LPS induced MKP-1 expression (Figure 1B) . Next, to demonstrate the induction of specific phosphatases by BCG, kinetics of MKP-1 expression in PBMo was studied by using QPCR during BCG treatment. Similar to the results produced by LPS, upon the addition of BCG (MOI = 1 CFU/cell), there was a significant induction of MKP-1 mRNA within 1 hour of BCG treatment as determined by Taqman probe specific for MKP-1 ( Figure 2A ). The effects lasted for at least 6 hours ( Figure 2A ). To examine whether the changes of protein production were in parallel to that of the mRNA levels, the protein levels of MKP-1 were measured by Western blotting. In response to BCG, PBMo produced the MKP-1 protein as early as 30 minutes after treatment. The protein levels were maintained for 2 hours and dropped to basal levels at 3 hours ( Figure 2B ). The results demonstrated that there was MKP-1 induction in response to BCG activation in human monocytes. It has been shown that inhibition of p38 MAPK either by specific inhibitor or siRNA reduced the expression of MKP-1 in LPS-or peptidoglycan-treated macrophages [14] . To determine the mechanisms involved in the BCGinduced MKP-1 expression, PBMo were pretreated with several inhibitors including PD98059 (inhibitor for MAP kinase kinase [MEK] or ERK1/2), SB203580 (inhibitor for p38 MAPK), SP600125 (inhibitor for JNK), and CAPE (inhibitor for NF-κB) for 1 hour. A range of concentrations of each inhibitor was used to test their optimal concentrations and effects on cell viability and kinase inhibitions. BCG was added afterwards and total RNA was harvested. The results demonstrated that, with the inhibition of ERK1/2 and p38 MAPK activities by their corresponding relatively specific inhibitors, MKP-1 expressions were significantly reduced ( Figure 3 ). In addition, using higher dose of SB203580, we showed that the inhibition is increased further (data not shown). On the contrary, pretreatment of the cells with CAPE and SP600125 did not affect the induction of MKP-1 by BCG ( Figure 3 ). These results suggest that BCG-induced MKP-1 expression is dependent on both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Throughout the above experiments, the primary goal was to examine the induction of MKP-1 by BCG in human monocytes. Thus, to further examine the role of MKP-1 in BCG-induced signaling, transfection of siRNA into PBMo was used to knockdown the activity of MKP-1. To demonstrate that the MKP-1 siRNA can indeed knockdown the target gene, PBMo were first transfected with control or MKP-1 siRNA and then treated with BCG for 3 hours. Levels of MKP-1 mRNA were measured by RT-PCR method. In Figure 4A , BCG stimulated MKP-1 expression (lanes 1 and 2). In MKP-1 siRNA transfected monocytes, induction of MKP-1 by BCG was significantly decreased (lanes 2 and 4). The results showed that the siRNA does abrogate the levels of MKP-1 mRNA. To further determine whether MKP-1 siRNA affects BCGinduced MKP-1 at protein levels, PBMo were treated as above and MKP-1 proteins were measured by Western blotting. The results showed that BCG could induce MKP-1 proteins as usual for cells transfected with control siRNA ( Figure 4B , lanes 1-3). However, the levels of BCGinduced MKP-1 protein expression were reduced in cells transfected with MKP-1 siRNA ( Figure 4B , lanes 4-6). Together, the results suggest that MKP-1 siRNA not only reduced the MKP-1 mRNA in BCG treatment but also abrogated the BCG-induced MKP-1 protein. As stated in the literature [9] , MKP-1 KO mice showed increased TNF-α production in response to LPS. On the basis of the above MKP-1 siRNA results, LPS was then used as a control to demonstrate the effects of this MKP-1 siRNA system. cytokine expression induced by LPS in MKP-1 siRNA transfected cells suggest that the siRNA system is effective in knocking down the MKP-1 expression and MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator in LPS-induced TNF-α expression. To investigate the effect of MKP-1 siRNA on BCG-induced cytokine expression, the levels of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-10 mRNA were measured by QPCR method. PBMo were transfected with either control or MKP-1 siRNA. Following exposure to BCG with control siRNA, there were significant inductions of TNF-α, IL-6 and IL-10 mRNA levels for 3 hours after treatment as previously reported ( [5] and data not shown). Next, the effects of MKP-1 siRNA were examined on the cytokine expression induced by BCG. Surprisingly, there was a significant abrogation of BCGinduced TNF-α expression by MKP-1 siRNA ( Figure 4D ). With the knockdown of MKP-1, the level of BCG-induced TNF-α was only 60% compared to that of the control cells, while BCG-induced IL-6 and IL-10 were unchanged in MKP-1 siRNA transfected cells. The results revealed that MKP-1 plays a role in the induction of TNF-α expression upon BCG stimulation, which may be different from that of its conventional functions in which MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator in LPS-induced signaling pathways [7] . The unexpected observations in cytokine expression lead to the investigation on the effects of MKP-1 siRNA on BCG-induced MAPK activation. MKP-1 was found to have a preferential substrate binding to p38 MAPK and JNK than ERK1/2 [7] . The phosphorylation status of MAPKs was assessed in control or MKP-1 siRNA transfected PBMo. Western blotting results demonstrated that BCGinduced both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 phosphorylation in 15 minutes (data not shown) and peaked at 30 minutes, and then returned to basal levels in cells treated with the control siRNA ( Figure 5 ). Similar to the results of cytokine expression, phosphorylation of both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 in response to BCG was decreased in monocytes transfected with MKP-1 siRNA instead of the expected increase in phosphorylation ( Figure 5 ). The results suggest that MKP-1 knockdown would result in reduced MAPK phosphorylation by BCG, implying that the reduced level of TNF-α production in BCG stimulated monocytes is due to reduced phosphorylation of MAPKs by MKP-1 siRNA. This report presented evidences that a novel function of MKP-1 is uncovered in cytokine regulation in response to mycobacterial infection. BCG induces MKP-1 as a rapid response (Figure 2) . The induction mechanism of MKP-1 by BCG is dependent on both ERK1/2 and p38 MAPK ( Figure 3 ). Using siRNA approach, the functions of MKP-1 can be examined in primary human monocytes. The results showed that the BCG-induced MAPKs activation as well as cytokine expression are downstream of MKP-1 ( Figures 4D and 5) . Thus, MKP-1 is a critical signaling molecule that is involved in BCG-induced cytokine expression. Previous reports have shown that MKP-1 induced by LPS or peptidoglycan is dependent on p38 MAPK [14] . Accordingly, BCG-induced MKP-1 can be inhibited by both p38 MAPK and ERK1/2 inhibitors. Interestingly, it has been shown that degradation of MKP-1 is reduced after ERK1/2 phosphorylation [15] . It can be hypothesized that BCG-induced MKP-1 proteins can be stabilized by ERK1/2 and the detailed mechanisms involved require more exploration. Also, since the inhibition of MKP-1 expression by both inhibitors (for p38 MAPK and ERK1/ 2) was not complete, it is believed that other proteins may be involved in the BCG-induced MKP-1 expression. On the basis of the literature results on LPS effects ( Figure 6 ), the original expectation for this project is that MKP-1 acts as a negative regulator. LPS-stimulated MKP-1 KO peritoneal macrophages showed prolonged phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and JNK as well as increased production of TNF-α [9] . In doing so, LPS-induced MKP-1 could BCG-induced MAPK phosphorylation is decreased by MKP-1 siRNA prevent prolonged TNF-α production as in sepsis which may lead to severe damage to the host. It was expected that BCG induces MKP-1 and its induction would correlate with the dephosphorylation of MAPKs including p38 MAPK. By blocking the MKP-1 using siRNA, it was expected to have increased p38 MAPK phosphorylation and prolonged TNF-α production in response to BCG. Nevertheless, our results shown here are diametrically opposite. One possibility for the unexpected results may be due to non-specific effects of transfection or siRNA. However, this was not the case since there was a prolonged and increased TNF-α expression after the MKP-1 siRNA-transfected monocytes were treated with LPS (Figure 4C ). There is now a new hypothesis to explain such paradoxical effects of MKP-1 in TNF-α regulation in which the phosphatase plays a role in positive regulation of TNF-α production in response to BCG as in the case of DUSP2 [13] . The structures of MKP-1 and DUSP2 are similar, with which they both contain a MAPK-interacting domain and a phosphatase catalytic site. By contrast, other DUSP may have extra domains, e.g., PEST [6] . Here, we postulate that the function of MKP-1 in BCG-induced signaling is similar to that of the DUSP2/PAC1. Actually, the discovery of DUSP2 has initially created some paradoxical questions. As described, DUSP2 behaves differently from other MKP family members [13] . In DUSP2 KO macrophages treated with LPS, they produced less inflammatory mediators including less TNF, IL-6, nitric oxide, and IL-12-producing cells, when compared to that of the wild type counterparts [13] . Indeed, the results of these published studies on DUSP2 studies are quite similar to that of our reported results here. It is plausible that these unexpected positive regulations of immune cell functions by DUSP2 were due to crosstalks between MAPKs [13] . It was shown that there are interactions between JNK and ERK1/2 pathways [16] . Here, we showed that the sustained activation of JNK blocks ERK activation ( Figure 6 ). In the DUSP2 situation, stimulation of KO mast cells and macrophages shows increased phosphorylation of JNK, and inhibition of JNK by its own specific inhibitor restores phosphorylation of ERK1/2 [13] . In the BCG-MKP-1 situation, there is an early phosphorylation of p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Therefore, it is possible that JNK may play a role in the crosstalk interaction of MAPK. However, our preliminary data suggest that the level of phosphorylated JNK was not increased in PBMo MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection Figure 6 MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection. LPS model was provided according to literature findings (Left). In this scenario, LPS activates MKP-1, which in turn dephosphorylates and deactivates phospho-p38 MAPK, resulting in less TNF-α induction. However, the situation in DHP-HSA activation of DUSP2 is more complicated (Middle), since the phosphatase activity causes subsequent inhibition of phospho-JNK which leads to the derepression of phospho-p38 MAPK. Consequently, the combined effects of this cascade results in more TNF-α expression. The unexpected antimycobacterial role of MKP-1 (Right) may be explained by events similar to the DUSP2 effects. In this case (Right), there was an inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases downstream of MKP-1, and the unknown factor in turn inhibits MAPKs activation leading to more TNF-α induction. The details and kinase targets are yet to be identified. transfected with MKP-1 siRNA (data not shown). Thus, the details of the crosstalk between MAPKs need further investigation. Here, we present a model to summarize the results and to hypothesize the existence of an as yet unidentified intermediary factor or factors in the pathways downstream of MKP-1 effects in the BCG-induced signaling cascade. The unexpected antimycobacterial role of MKP-1 ( Figure 6 ) may be explained by events similar to the DUSP2 effects. In this case, BCG induces MKP-1 expression while also activates MAPKs including p38 MAPK and ERK1/2. Downstream of MKP-1, there is an inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases. The unknown factor in turn inhibits MAPKs activation, which ultimately leads to more TNF-α induction ( Figure 6 ). In summary, MKP-1 plays a critical role in the regulation of cytokine expression upon mycobacterial infection. Inhibition of unknown pathways or kinases downstream of MKP-1, which in turn inhibits MAPKs activation, may be used to explain the novel function of MKP-1 in enhancing MAPK activity and consequent TNF-α expression following BCG treatment ( Figure 6 ). Taken together, the role of MAPK crosstalks need further exploration. (3) TNF-α, 30 cycles (TM = 56°C), upstream, 5'-GGCTCCAGGCGGTGCTTGTTC-3', downstream, 5'-AGACGGCGATGCGGCTGATG-3'. PCR products were analyzed on a 1% agarose gel with ethidium bromide and visualized under ultraviolet light. In order to check the size of the PCR products, 1 kb Plus DNA Lad-der™ (Invitrogen, USA) was run along with the PCR products. To perform QPCR, the levels of MKP-1, and TNF-α mRNA as well as the reference gene GAPDH (as internal control) were assayed by the gene-specific Assays-on-Demand reagent kits (Applied Biosystems, USA). All samples were run in duplicates or triplicates and with no template controls on an ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detector. The analysis method of QPCR was the comparative cycle number to threshold (C T ) method as described in user bulletin no. 2 of the ABI Prism 7700 Sequence Detection System. The number of C T of the targeted genes was normalized to that of GAPDH in each sample (ΔC T ). The C T value of the treated cells was compared with that of the untreated or mock-treated cells (ΔΔCT). The relative gene expression of the targeted genes (fold induction) was calculated as 2 -ΔΔCT . Total cellular proteins were extracted by lysing cells in lysis buffer containing 1% Triton X-100, 0.5% NP-40, 150 mM NaCl, 10 mM Tris-HCl (pH 7.4), 1 mM EDTA, 1 mM EGTA (pH 8.0), 1% SDS, 0.2 mg/ml PMSF, 1 μg/ml aprotinin, 1 mM sodium orthovanadate, 2 μg/ml pepstatin, 2 μg/ml leupeptin, and 50 mM sodium fluoride for 5 minutes. The homogenate was then boiled for 10 minutes and stored at -70°C until use. The concentrations of total protein in cell extracts were determined by BCA™ Protein Assay Kit (Pierce, IL, USA). Western blot was done as described [20] . Equal amounts of protein were separated by 10% SDS-PAGE, electroblotted onto nitrocellulose membranes (Schleicher & Schuell), and followed by probing with specific antibod-ies for Actin, MKP-1 (Santa Cruz Biotech., USA), phospho-p38 MAPK, phospho-ERK1/2 (Cell Signaling, USA). After three washes, the membranes were incubated with the corresponding secondary antibodies. The bands were detected using the Enhanced Chemiluminescence System (Amersham Pharmacia Biotech) as per the manufacturer's instructions. Transfection of siRNA into human monocytes was done as described [21] . MKP-1 siRNA included (i) MKP1-HSS102982, AAACGCUUCGUAUCCUCCUUUGAGG; (ii) MKP1-HSS102983, UUAUGCCCAAGGCAUCCAG-CAUGUC; and (iii) MKP1-HSS102984, UGAUG-GAGUCUAUGAAGUCAAUGGC. MKP-1 knockdown in PBMo was conducted by using MKP1-HSS102983 only or a pool of the above three different MKP-1 Stealth™ Select RNAi (ratio = 1:1:1, 200 nM, Invitrogen, USA). Stealth™ RNAi Negative Control Duplex (200 nM) was used as a control for sequence independent effects for the siRNA transfection. Transfection of monocytes was done by using jetPEI™ DNA transfection reagent (Polyplus Transfection, USA) according to the manufacturer's instructions. After transfecting the cells for 24 h, the transfectants were treated with different inducers as described above. Statistical analysis was performed by Student's t test. Differences were considered statistically significant when p values were less than 0.05.

What causes tuberculosis?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Being closest to 2019-nCoV, which species do the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45 infect?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Viroporin 3a Activates the NLRP3 Inflammasome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6361828/ SHA: f02d0c1e8b0109648e578662dc250abe349a033c Authors: Chen, I-Yin; Moriyama, Miyu; Chang, Ming-Fu; Ichinohe, Takeshi Date: 2019-01-29 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2019.00050 License: cc-by Abstract: Nod-like receptor family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) regulates the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines interleukin 1 beta (IL-1β) and IL-18. We previously showed that influenza virus M2 or encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV) 2B proteins stimulate IL-1β secretion following activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. However, the mechanism by which severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) activates the NLRP3 inflammasome remains unknown. Here, we provide direct evidence that SARS-CoV 3a protein activates the NLRP3 inflammasome in lipopolysaccharide-primed macrophages. SARS-CoV 3a was sufficient to cause the NLRP3 inflammasome activation. The ion channel activity of the 3a protein was essential for 3a-mediated IL-1β secretion. While cells uninfected or infected with a lentivirus expressing a 3a protein defective in ion channel activity expressed NLRP3 uniformly throughout the cytoplasm, NLRP3 was redistributed to the perinuclear space in cells infected with a lentivirus expressing the 3a protein. K(+) efflux and mitochondrial reactive oxygen species were important for SARS-CoV 3a-induced NLRP3 inflammasome activation. These results highlight the importance of viroporins, transmembrane pore-forming viral proteins, in virus-induced NLRP3 inflammasome activation. Text: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), a member of the genus Betacoronavirus within the family Coronaviridae, is an enveloped virus with a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of approximately 30 kb in length. The 5 two-thirds of the genome encodes large polyprotein precursors, open reading frame (ORF) 1 and ORF1b, which are proteolytically cleaved to generate 16 non-structural proteins (Tan et al., 2005) . The 3 one-third of the genome encodes four structural proteins, spike (S), envelope (E), matrix (M) and nucleocapsid (N), and non-structural proteins, along with a set of accessory proteins (3a, 3b, 6, 7a, 7b, 8a, 8b, and 9b) (Perlman and Dandekar, 2005; Tan et al., 2005) . SARS-CoV is the etiological agent of SARS (Drosten et al., 2003; Fouchier et al., 2003; Ksiazek et al., 2003; Kuiken et al., 2003; Peiris et al., 2003) . At least 8,098 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection, with a fatality rate of 9.6%, were reported to the World Health Organization from November 2002 to July 2003. High levels of proinflammatory cytokines, including tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-1β, and IL-6, were detected in autopsy tissues from SARS patients (He et al., 2006) . Although dysregulation of inflammatory cytokines may be involved in lung injury and the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV, the underlying molecular mechanisms are not fully understood. The innate immune systems utilizes pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) to detect pathogen-associated molecular patterns (Medzhitov, 2001; Kawai and Akira, 2010) . Recognition of virus infection plays an important role in limiting virus replication at the early stages of infection. Nod-like receptor family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) is activated by a wide variety of stimuli, including virus infection (Bauernfeind et al., 2011) . Four models describing activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome have been proposed thus far (Hornung and Latz, 2010; Schroder et al., 2010; Tschopp and Schroder, 2010) . First, the disturbances in intracellular ionic concentrations, including K + efflux and Ca 2+ influx, play an important role (Fernandes-Alnemri et al., 2007; Petrilli et al., 2007; Arlehamn et al., 2010; Ichinohe et al., 2010; Ito et al., 2012; Murakami et al., 2012; Munoz-Planillo et al., 2013) . Second, cathepsin B and L, which are specific lysosomal cysteine proteases, are though to play a role after phagocytosis of cholesterol crystals (Duewell et al., 2010) , fibrillar peptide amyloid-beta , silica crystals, and aluminum salts . Third is the release of reactive oxygen species (ROS) or mitochondrial DNA from damaged mitochondria (Zhou et al., , 2011 Nakahira et al., 2011; Shimada et al., 2012) . Finally, viral RNA or RNA cleavage products generated by RNase L activate the NLRP3 inflammasome via the DExD/H-box helicase, DHX33 (Allen et al., 2009; Mitoma et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2014; Chakrabarti et al., 2015) . Upon activation, the NLRP3 is recruited to the mitochondria via association with mitochondrial antiviral signaling (MAVS) or mitofusin 2 expressed on the outer mitochondrial membrane Subramanian et al., 2013) ; these molecules then recruit the apoptosis-associated speck-like protein containing a caspase recruitment domain (ASC) and pro-caspase-1 to form the NLRP3 inflammasome. This event activates the downstream molecule, caspase-1, which catalyzes the proteolytic processing of pro-IL-1β and pro-IL-18 into their active forms and stimulates their secretion (Kayagaki et al., 2015; Shi et al., 2015) . It is increasingly evident that NLRP3 detects RNA viruses by sensing the cellular damage or distress induced by viroporins (Ichinohe et al., 2010; Ito et al., 2012; Triantafilou et al., 2013; Nieto-Torres et al., 2015) , transmembrane pore-forming proteins, encoded by certain RNA viruses; these proteins alter membrane permeability to ions by forming membrane channels (Tan et al., 2005; Chen and Ichinohe, 2015) . A recent study shows that the SARS-CoV E protein, which comprise only 76 amino acids, forms Ca 2+ -permeable ion channels and activates the NLRP3 inflammasome (Nieto-Torres et al., 2015) . Although the E and 3a proteins of SARS-CoV, which comprise 274 amino acids and contain three transmembrane domains (Zeng et al., 2004; Lu et al., 2006) , are thought to act as Na + /K + and K + channels, respectively (Wilson et al., 2004; Lu et al., 2006; Torres et al., 2007; Parthasarathy et al., 2008; Pervushin et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2011) , the role of the 3a protein in activating the NLRP3 inflammasome remains unknown. Here, we examined the role of the 3a protein in activating the NLRP3 inflammasome. Six-week-old female C57BL/6 mice were purchased from The Jackson Laboratory. All animal experiments were approved by the Animal Committees of the Institute of Medical Science (The University of Tokyo). Bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMMs) were prepared as described previously (Ichinohe et al., 2009) . In brief, bone marrow was obtained from the tibia and femur by flushing with Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM; Nacalai Tesque). Bone marrow cells were cultured for 5 days in DMEM supplemented with 30% L929 cell supernatant containing macrophage colony-stimulating factor, 10% heat-inactivated fetal bovine serum (FBS), and L-glutamine (2 mM) at 37 • C/5% CO 2 . HEK293FT cells (a human embryonic kidney cell line) and HeLa cells (a human epithelial carcinoma cell line) were maintained in DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS, penicillin (100 units/ml), and streptomycin (100 µg/ml) (Nacalai Tesque). MDCK cells (Madin-Darby canine kidney cells) and HT-1080 cells (a human fibrosarcoma cell line) were grown in Eagle's minimal essential medium (E-MEM; Nacalai Tesque) supplemented with 10% FBS, penicillin (100 units/ml), and streptomycin (100 µg/ml) (Nacalai Tesque). Influenza A virus strain A/PR8 (H1N1) was grown at 35 • C for 2 days in the allantoic cavities of 10-day-old fertile chicken eggs (Ichinohe et al., 2009) . The viral titer was quantified in a standard plaque assay using MDCK cells (Pang et al., 2013) . Plasmids cDNAs encoding the E and M proteins of SARS-CoV Frankfurt 1 strain (Matsuyama et al., 2005) were obtained by reverse transcription and PCR of total RNA extracted from SARS-CoVinfected Vero cells, followed by PCR amplification using specific primers. pcDNA3.1D-3a-V5His was provided by Ming-Fu Chang (National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan). To generate the plasmids pLenti6-E-V5His, pLenti6-3a-V5His, and pLenti-M-V5His, cDNA fragments of E, 3a, and M were amplified from pcDNA3.1D-E-V5His, pcDNA3.1D-3a-V5His, and pcDNA3.1D-M-V5His using specific primer sets and then ligated into pLenti6-TOPO vectors (Invitrogen). To generate plasmids pCA7-flag-E, pCA7-flag-3a, and pCA7flag-M, pCA7-HA-E, pCA7-HA-3a, and pCA7-HA-M, cDNA fragments of E, 3a, and M were amplified from pcDNA3.1D-E-V5His, pcDNA3.1D-3a-V5His, and pcDNA3.1D-M-V5His using specific primer sets, digested with EcoR I and Not I, and subcloned into the EcoR I-Not I sites of the pCA7-flag-ASC plasmid or pCA7-HA-M2 plasmid, respectively (Ito et al., 2012) . To construct plasmids expressing the E mutant V25F, the mutated E fragments were amplified by inverse PCR with wildtype E-containing plasmids and specific primer sets. The PCR products were cleaved by Dpn I, ligated in a ligase-and T4 kinase-containing reaction and then transformed into DH5α competent cells (TOYOBO). To construct plasmids expressing the 3a mutant 3a-CS, fragments were amplified from wildtype 3a-containing plasmids using 3a-specific primer sets and transformed as described above. HEK293FT cells were seeded in 24-well cluster plates and transfected with 1 µg pLenti6-E/3a/M-V5His, pLenti-GFP (green fluorescent protein), or pLenti-M2 using polyethylenimine (PEI) Max. At 24 h post-transfection, the cells were lysed with RIPA buffer (50 mM Tris-HCl, 1% NP-40, 0.05% sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), 150 mM NaCl and 1 mM EDTA). And the lysates were subjected to SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) followed by electroblotting onto polyvinylidene difluoride (PVDF) membranes. The membranes were incubated over night with mouse anti-V5-tag (R960-25, Invitrogen), mouse anti-influenza A virus M2 (14C2, Abcam), mouse anti-GFP (GF200, Nacalai Tesque), or rabbit antitubulin (DM1A, Santa Cruz) antibodies, followed by horseradish peroxide-conjugated anti-mouse IgG (Jackson Immuno Research Laboratories) or anti-rabbit IgG (Invitrogen). After washing 3 times with washing buffer (0.05% Tween-20/PBS), the membranes were exposed using Chemi-Lumi One Super (Nacalai Tesque), and the chemiluminescent signals were captured by an ImageQuant LAS-4000 mini apparatus (GE Healthcare). To generate lentiviruses expressing V5-tagged SARS-CoV E, 3a, and M proteins, the full-length cDNA encoding each viral protein was cloned into the pLenti6.3/V5-TOPO vector (Invitrogen) using the following primers: SARS-CoV E forward, 5 -caccatgtactcattcgtttcgga-3 , and reverse, 5 -gaccagaagatcaggaactc-3 ; SARS-CoV 3a forward, 5caccatggatttgtttatgagatt-3 , and reverse, 5 -caaaggcacgctagtagtcg-3 ; SARS-CoV M forward, 5 -caccatggcagacaacggtactat-3 , and reverse, 5 -ctgtactagcaaagcaatat-3 . Sub-confluent monolayers of HEK293FT cells seeded in a collagen-coated dish (10 cm in diameter) were transfected with 3 µg of pLenti6.3/V5-TOPO vector expressing each viral protein or EGFP together with ViraPower Packaging Mix (Invitrogen) using Lipofectamine 2000 (Invitrogen). The supernatants containing lentiviruses were harvested and filtered through a 0.45 µm filter (Millipore) at 72-96 h post-transfection (Ito et al., 2012) . The lentiviral titer was then quantified using HT-1080 cells as described previously . Bone marrow-derived macrophages were plated at a density of 8 × 10 5 in 24-well plate and infected with A/PR8 influenza virus or lentivirus at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 5 or 0.2 for 1 h, respectively. Then, BMMs were stimulated with 1 µg/ml of LPS and cultured for additional 23 h in complete media. Supernatants were collected at 24 h post-infection and centrifuged to remove cell debris. The amount of IL-1β in the supernatants was measured in an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) using paired antibodies (eBioscience) (Ichinohe et al., 2010 . To clarify the cellular localization of the wild-type and mutant 3a proteins of SARS-CoV, HeLa cells were cultured on coverslips and transfected with 1 µg of pCA7-flag-3a or pCD7-flag-3a-CS together with 0.5 µg of ER-mCherry or DsRed-Golgi (Ito et al., 2012) . At 24 h post-transfection, cells were fixed with 4% paraformaldehyde and permeabilized with 1% Triton X-100/PBS. After washing with PBS and blocking with 4% BSA/PBS, the cells were incubated with a mouse anti-flag antibody (M2, Sigma) followed by incubation with Alexa Fluor 488-conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG (H+L) (Life Technologies). To observe the cellular distribution of NLRP3 in the E-or 3a-expressing cells, HeLa cells were cultured on coverslips and transfected with 1 µg of pCA7-HA-E, pCA7-HA-EV25F, pCA7-HA-3a, pCA7-HA-3a-CS, or pCA7 control vector together with 0.5 µg of pCA7-NLRP3. At 24 h post-transfection, cells were fixed and permeabilized with 4% paraformaldehyde and 1% Triton X-100/PBS. After washing and blocking, the cells were incubated with rabbit anti-HA (561, MBL) and mouse anti-NLRP3 (Cryo-2; AdipoGen) antibodies, followed by Alexa Fluor 488-conjugated goat anti-rabbit IgG (H+L) and Alexa Fluor 568-conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG (H+L) (Life Technologies). Fluorescent signals were observed by confocal microscopy (A1R + , Nikon). Statistical significance was tested using a two-tailed Student's t-test. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. We previously demonstrated that the influenza virus M2 protein (a proton-selective ion channel), its H37G mutant (which has lost its proton selectivity and enables the transport of other cations such as Na + and K + ), and the EMCV 2B protein (a Ca 2+ channel) stimulates NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated IL-1β secretion (Ichinohe et al., 2010; Ito et al., 2012) . In addition, the SARS-CoV E protein acts as a Ca 2+ -permeable ion channels that activates the NLRP3 inflammasome (Nieto- Torres et al., 2015) . The fact that 3a protein of SARS-CoV acts as viroporin prompted us to examine whether it also triggers inflammasome activation. Thus, we first generated lentivirus plasmids expressing V5-tagged proteins and confirmed their expression in HEK293FT cells by immunoblot analysis (Figures 1A-C) . We next transduced lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-primed BMMs with the lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E, 3a, M, influenza virus M2, or EMCV 2B proteins. Consistent with previous reports (Ichinohe et al., Figure 1D) . Similarly, the lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E or 3a proteins stimulated IL-1β release from LPS-primed BMMs ( Figure 1D) . Furthermore, IL-1β secretion from LPSprimed BMMs co-infected with E-and 3a-expressing lentiviruses was significantly higher than that from SARS-CoV E-expressing lentivirus-infected cells ( Figure 1E) . These data indicated that the expression of SARS-CoV viroporin 3a is sufficient to stimulate IL-1β secretion by LPS-primed BMMs. Previous studies demonstrated that the N-terminal 40 amino acids of the SARS-CoV E protein are important for ion channel formation, and that mutations N15A and V25F [located in the transmembrane domain (from amino acid residues 7-38)] prevent ion conductivity (Wilson et al., 2004; Torres et al., 2007; Verdia-Baguena et al., 2012) . In addition, the SARS-CoV 3a protein contains a cysteine-rich domain (amino acid residues 127-133) that is involved in the formation of a homodimer to generate the ion channel (Lu et al., 2006; Chan et al., 2009) . Thus, mutation of the cysteine-rich domain blocks the ion conductivity by the 3a protein (Chan et al., 2009) . To this end, we substituted amino acids Cys-127, Cys-130, and Cys-133 within the cysteine-rich domain of the SARS-CoV 3a protein with serine to generate a lentivirus expressing the ion channel activity-loss mutant, 3a-CS (Chan et al., 2009; Figure 2A) . To test whether the ion channel activity of the SARS-CoV 3a protein is required to stimulate secretion of IL-1β, we transduced LPSprimed BMMs with lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E, V25F, 3a, 3a-CS, or M proteins. Consistent with a previous report (Nieto -Torres et al., 2015) , we found that the V25F mutant lentivirus failed to stimulate IL-1β release from BMMs ( Figure 2B) . Notably, the 3a-CS mutant completely abrogated IL-1β secretion (Figure 2B) , suggesting that the ion channel activity of the 3a protein is required for SARS-CoV 3a-induced IL-1β secretion. FIGURE 4 | NLRP3 inflammasome activation by SARS-CoV 3a. HeLa cells were transfected with the expression plasmid encoding NLRP3 and that encoding HA-tagged SARS-CoV 3a, 3a-CS, E, or V25F, and by with a confocal microscope. Scale bars, 10 µm. Data are representative of at least three independent experiments. Next, we determined the subcellular localization of the SARS-CoV 3a protein using confocal microscopy. When the SARS-CoV Cell-free supernatants were collected at 24 h (lentiviruses) or 6 h (ATP) post-infection or stimulation, and analyzed for IL-1β by ELISA. Data are representative of at least three independent experiments, and indicate the mean ± SD; * * P < 0.01 and * * * P < 0.001. 3a protein was expressed in HeLa cells, we observed two main distribution patterns. Consistent with previous reports (Yu et al., 2004; Yuan et al., 2005) , the 3a protein localized to the Golgi apparatus ( Figure 3A ). In addition, the 3a proteins concentrated in spot structures, which mainly localized to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) (Figure 3B ). By contrast, the 3a-CS mutant was concentrated in the Golgi apparatus rather than in the ER and did not form spot structures (Figures 3A,B) . We next examined the intracellular localization of NLRP3. Activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome led to a redistribution from the cytosol to the perinuclear space, a process considered as a hallmark of NLRP3 activation (Zhou et al., 2011; Ito et al., 2012; Johnson et al., 2013; Moriyama et al., 2016) . Although cells expressing the ion channel activity-loss mutants 3a-CS or V25F uniformly expressed NLRP3 throughout the cytoplasm, it was redistributed to the perinuclear region in SARS-CoV 3a-or E-expressing cells (Figure 4) . Together, these data provide evidence that the ion channel activity of the SARS-CoV 3a protein is essential for triggering the NLRP3 inflammasome. Both K + Efflux and ROS Production Are Involved in the IL-1β Release Induced by the SARS-CoV 3a Protein Finally, we investigated the mechanism by which SARS-CoV 3a triggers NLRP3 inflammasome activation. A previous study showed that the 3a protein of SARS-CoV acts as a K + channel (Lu et al., 2006) . In addition, K + efflux is a well-known activator of the NLRP3 inflammasome (Mariathasan et al., 2006; Petrilli et al., 2007) . These observations prompted us to examine whether K + efflux is required for 3a-mediated IL-1β secretion. To this end, BMMs in K + -rich medium were infected with influenza A virus or lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E or 3a proteins. In agreement with a previous result (Ichinohe et al., 2010) , we found that IL-1β secretion caused by influenza virus was completely blocked when the extracellular K + concentration was increased to 130 mM ( Figure 5A) . The inhibitory effect of the K + -rich medium was also observed when cells were stimulated with lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E or 3a proteins ( Figure 5B ). Since mitochondrial ROS are important for NLRP3 inflammasome activation (Nakahira et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2011) , we next stimulated BMMs with extracellular ATP or lentiviruses expressing the SARS-CoV E or 3a proteins in the presence or absence of the antioxidant, Mito-TEMPO, a scavenger that is specific for mitochondrial ROS Trnka et al., 2009) . As reported previously (Nakahira et al., 2011; Ito et al., 2012) , treatment of BMMs with Mito-TEMPO completely blocked IL-1β secretion in response to ATP ( Figure 6A) . Similarly, IL-1β release induced by the SARS-CoV E and 3a proteins was significantly inhibited by Mito-TEMPO ( Figure 6B) . These observations indicate that the SARS-CoV 3a protein disrupts intracellular ionic concentrations and causes mitochondrial damages, thereby activating the NLRP3 inflammasome. In summary, we found that the ion channel activity of SARS-CoV 3a protein is essential for activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome. In addition, both K + efflux and mitochondrial ROS production are required for SARS-CoV 3a-mediated IL-1β secretion. Thus far, several models have been proposed to explain NLRP3 inflammasome activation by RNA viruses. First, viral RNA or RNA cleavage products generated by RNase L activate the NLRP3 inflammasome via the DExD/H-box helicase, DHX33 (Allen et al., 2009; Mitoma et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2014; Chakrabarti et al., 2015) . Second, viroporins encoded by RNA viruses activates the NLRP3 inflammasome (Ichinohe et al., 2010; Ito et al., 2012; Triantafilou et al., 2013; Nieto-Torres et al., 2015) . In the case of influenza virus, the proton-selective M2 ion channel in the acidic trans-Golgi network activates the NLRP3 inflammasome (Ichinohe et al., 2010) . Interestingly, an M2 mutant in which histidine was substituted with glycine at position 37 (H37G), causing loss of proton selectivity, enables transport of other cations (i.e., Na + and K + ), thereby leading to enhanced secretion of IL-1β from LPS-primed BMMs and dendritic cells when compared with the wild-type M2 protein. In addition, the 2B proteins of EMCV, poliovirus, enterovirus 71 (EV71), and human rhinovirus (a member of the Picornaviridae family) triggers NLRP3 inflammasome activation by inducing Ca 2+ flux from the ER and Golgi compartments (Ito et al., 2012; Triantafilou et al., 2013) . Furthermore, hepatitis C virus stimulates NLRP3 inflammasome-mediated IL-1β production though its p7 viroporin (Negash et al., 2013; Farag et al., 2017) . Third, a recent study has demonstrated that the 3D protein of EV71 directly interacts with NLRP3 to facilitate the assembly of NLRP3 inflammasome complex (Wang et al., 2017) . In the case of SARS-CoV, the viroporin E forms forms Ca 2+permeable ion channels and activates the NLRP3 inflammasome (Nieto-Torres et al., 2015) . In addition, another viroporin 3a was found to induce NLRP3 inflammasome activation (Yue et al., 2018) . Although alanine substitution at Cys-133, which is required for dimer or tetramer formation (Lu et al., 2006) , still allows activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome by interacting with caspase-1 (Yue et al., 2018) , the ion channel activity-loss mutant 3a-CS (Cys-to-Ser substitution at positions Cys-127, Cys-130, and Cys-133) (Chan et al., 2009 ) completely abrogated IL-1β secretion from LPS-primed BMMs, suggesting that the 3a protein of SARS-CoV has the ability to induce the NLRP3 inflammasome activation by multiple mechanisms. Previous studies show that the 3a protein of SARS-CoV is localized to the plasma membrane (Minakshi and Padhan, 2014) and acts as a K + channel (Lu et al., 2006) , thereby (presumably) stimulating the K + efflux at the plasma membrane. Indeed, we found that IL-1β secretion caused by the 3a protein was significantly inhibited when the extracellular K + concentration increased to 130 mM. Although it remains unclear whether another viroporin 8a of SARS-CoV (Castano-Rodriguez et al., 2018) activates the NLRP3 inflammasome, these data highlights the importance of viroporins in SARS-CoV-induced NLRP3 inflammasome activation. A better understanding of the mechanism that governs the NLRP3 inflammasome will facilitate the development of more effective interventions for the treatment of infectious diseases and increase our understanding of viral pathogenesis.

What are examples of proinflammatory cytokines?

Backcalculating the Incidence of Infection with COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030657 SHA: 0938d2fb07611897abf38cea727ddbeea77b73d9 Authors: Nishiura, Hiroshi Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030657 License: cc-by Abstract: To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards. Text: An outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess [1] . The primary case remains unknown, but the index case, defined as the first identified case, is a passenger who started coughing from 19 January 2020 on board, disembarking the ship in Hong Kong on 25 January. As the case was diagnosed on 1 February, the ship was requested to remain in the ocean near Yokohama from 3 February onwards. Subsequently, the movement of all passengers was restricted on board from 5 February, for a matter of 14 days of quarantine. Out of a total of 3711 persons (consisting of 2666 passengers and 1045 crew members), 199 symptomatic cases have been diagnosed on board as of 24 February, and additional asymptomatic infections and symptomatic cases after disembarkation have also been reported. One of the critical issues in infectious disease epidemiology is that the time of infection event is seldom directly observable. For this reason, the time of infection needs to be statistically estimated, employing a backcalculation method [2] . Using a sophisticated statistical model with doubly intervalcensored likelihood and right truncation with an exponential growth of cases, the mean incubation period has been estimated to be about 5.0 days [3] . To understand the time-dependent risk of infection throughout the course of outbreak and estimate the effectiveness of the quarantine measure from 5 to 19 February 2020, I aimed to estimate the incidence of infection with COVID-19 and also predict the likely number of infections prevented by the quarantine measure. I analyzed the epidemic curve, ct, on day t, illustrated by the number of confirmed cases by the date of illness onset. The confirmatory diagnosis was made, using the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The date of illness onset was defined as the first date of fever. In addition to the date of illness onset, cases were classified by contact history inside the cabin and also by the type of membership, i.e., crew or passenger. Close contact was defined as having at least one cabinmate who was confirmed by RT-PCR. We estimate the number of cases by time of infection, it. Using the probability mass function of the incubation period of length s, fs, the incidence of infection is known to satisfy where E(.) represents the expected value. As for fs, it is known that the mean and standard deviation are 5.0 and 3.0 days, respectively, best fitted by lognormal distribution [3] . Employing a step function, the incidence of infection was statistically estimated via a maximum likelihood method. The estimation was implemented independently by the history of contact and type of membership. Regarding the real-time forecasting, we employed the so-called Richards model, an analogue to the generalized logistic model [4, 5] : where is the cumulative incidence on day t, Z is the cumulative incidence at the end of the outbreak, s is the parameter that governs the flexibility of the logistic curve, a is the early growth rate of cases and ti is the inflection point of the cumulative incidence curve. Assuming that the cumulative incidence is Gaussian distributed, four unknown parameters were estimated. The Richards model was fitted to two different datasets, i.e., (i) the dataset of the entire course of the epidemic and (ii) the dataset by 4 February 2020. The latter dataset corresponds to the time period without any impact of movement restriction that was in place from 5 February onwards. Figure 1 shows the epidemic curve by contact history and type of membership. The highest incidence of illness onset was observed on 7 February. The epidemic curve in a latter half period was dominated by crew members whose movement was not strictly controlled due to the need to continue service on the ship. The second dominating group was passengers with close contact history. The last illness onset date on board of a passenger without close contact was on 14 February. Estimating the incidence of infection, the peak incidence was identified for the period from 2 to 4 February among passengers both with and without close contact (Figure 2 ). The incidence of infection abruptly dropped after 5 February, the date of movement restriction. Among passengers without close contact, the incidence was estimated to be zero, except for 8-10 February 2020, during which 0.98 persons (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0, 7.74) per day were estimated to have been infected. The epidemic peak among crew members was seen for the period from 8 to 10 February 2020. Figure 3 compares the cumulative incidence with and without movement restriction policy from 5 February. In the presence of intervention, the cumulative incidence among passengers with and without close contact and crew members were 102, 47 and 48 cases, respectively, as of 24 February 2020. These were well realized by the Richards model. Without intervention from 5 February onwards, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively. A large outbreak of COVID-19 occurred on a cruise ship. Estimating the incidence, the peak time of infection was shown to have been from 2 to 4 February, and the incidence abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February, on which the movement restriction policy was imposed, and at most there was, on average, one case of infection per day from 8 to 10 February. Other than continued exposure among crew members, the estimated incidence in this study indicates that the movement restriction policy from 5 February 2020 was highly successful in greatly reducing the number of secondary transmissions on board. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board (and before the disembarkation of a large number of passengers), the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited Among disembarked passengers, symptomatic cases have started to be reported on the ground in and outside of Japan. In particular, cases arising from passengers without close contact indicate a possible pathway of infection via mechanisms that were not covered by the abovementioned analysis that relied on symptomatic cases. Although the transmission via direct human-to-human contact was prevented by movement restrictions, the role of other modes of transmission, e.g., environmental and asymptomatic transmissions, should be further explored. The author declares no conflict of interest.

What was the effect of movement restriction policy on the Diamond Princess cruise ship started on 5th February 2020.

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

How does the genome of 2019-vCOV compare with SARS like viruses and SARS-COV?

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020388 SHA: bf20dda99538a594eafc258553634fd9195104cb Authors: Zhao, Shi; Musa, Salihu S.; Lin, Qianying; Ran, Jinjun; Yang, Guangpu; Wang, Weiming; Lou, Yijun; Yang, Lin; Gao, Daozhou; He, Daihai; Wang, Maggie H. Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020388 License: cc-by Abstract: Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403&minus;540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18&minus;25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49&minus;2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly [1] , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 [2] . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath [3] . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 (618 of them are in Wuhan) confirmed cases and 56 (45 of them were in Wuhan) deaths in mainland China [4] , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization (WHO) news release via https://www.who.int/csr/don/en/ from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 (95%CI: 1000-9700) cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was estimated at 2.6 (95%CI: 1.5-3.5) [5] . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China [6] , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by [7] . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 [8] , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 [9] . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study [3] . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China [10] . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies [11, 12] , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason(s), we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate (γ) of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile [13] , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M(−γ) with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M(·) was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval (SI) of the disease [11, 14] , denoted by h(k) and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV [15] [16] [17] . We modelled h(k) as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation (SD) of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days [18] , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days [19] . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E[ denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 (95% CI: 403-540), see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63), see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 [5, [20] [21] [22] . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases (C i ) remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 (95% CI: 403−540), see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49−2.63), see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 [5, [20] [21] [22] . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases (Ci) remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases (Ci) and the daily number of cases (εi) respectively. In panels (c) and (d), the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel (c), the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel (d), the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up [23] , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels (a,b) , the green shading area represents the 95% CI (on the horizontal axis), and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels (c,d) show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases (C i ) and the daily number of cases (ε i ) respectively. In panels (c,d), the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel (c), the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel (d), the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up [23] , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63), and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 [19, 24, 25] , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 [26] . For the simulated daily number of cases (ε i ), see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold (95% CI: [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 [27] , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected (seropositive) and who was not (seronegative), with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 (95% CI: 427-4471) as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 (95% CI: 1000-9700) as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases [5] . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 (95% CI: 128-613) as of 12 January 2020, and 609 (95% CI: 278-1333) as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. [5] , they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. [5] . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases (i.e., ξ) should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. [5] . It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study (for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate) or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63). Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

What are some of the symptoms caused by the virus?

Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of human metapneumovirus strains from Kenya and Zambia https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6941262/ SHA: f5ae3f66face323615df39d838e056ab5fcc98df Authors: Kamau, Everlyn; Oketch, John W.; de Laurent, Zaydah R.; Phan, My V. T.; Agoti, Charles N.; Nokes, D. James; Cotten, Matthew Date: 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1186/s12864-019-6400-z License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is an important cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. Whole genome sequencing enables better identification of transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic sequences. RESULTS: We report a 2-reaction amplicon-based next generation sequencing method to determine the complete genome sequences of five HMPV strains, representing three subgroups (A2, B1 and B2), directly from clinical samples. In addition to reporting five novel HMPV genomes from Africa we examined genetic diversity and sequence patterns of publicly available HMPV genomes. We found that the overall nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3 and 80% for HMPV group A and B, respectively, the diversity between HMPV groups was greater at amino acid level for SH and G surface protein genes, and multiple subgroups co-circulated in various countries. Comparison of sequences between HMPV groups revealed variability in G protein length (219 to 241 amino acids) due to changes in the stop codon position. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis showed congruence with the individual gene sequence sets except for F and M2 genes. CONCLUSION: This is the first genomic characterization of HMPV genomes from African patients. Text: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is a single-stranded RNA virus in the family Paramyxoviridae and closely related to human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) [1] . HMPV causes respiratory disease similar to RSV, ranging from mild upper respiratory infection to bronchiolitis and pneumonia [2] . HMPV infections are seasonal and coinfection with other respiratory pathogens is common [1] . The HMPV genome is approximately 13 kb and comprises eight open reading frames (ORFs) encoding nucleoprotein (N), phosphoprotein (P), matrix protein (M), fusion glycoprotein (F), transcription enhancer protein (M2), small hydrophobic protein (SH), attachment glycoprotein (G), and large polymerase protein (L) [3] . The membrane glycoproteins F and G sequences are used to define two major genotypes or groups, A and B, which are further classified into four subgroups (A1, A2, B1, and B2). HMPV A2, the most frequently observed subgroup, is further divided into two proposed sub-lineages (A2a and A2b) [3] . HMPV is reported to have an important contribution to acute respiratory infections (ARI) in Africa. For instance, HMPV-associated hospitalization was estimated at 6.5 per 1000 person years in infants in Soweto, South Africa [4] ; at 4% in hospitalized children with severe ARI during a 2-year period in Cameroon [5] ; and in rural western Kenya, incidence of HMPV associated with ARI cases in outpatient clinic visits was estimated at 0.43 per 100 person-years among outpatients [6] . In Kilifi coastal Kenya, between January 2007 to December 2011, children under 6 months of age accounted for 44% of HMPV positive cases, while 74% were children under 1 year, and 1.3% (2/160) were children > 36 months [7] . In Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya, HMPV was detected in 5.7% hospitalizations, and virus-positive crude hospitalization rate (per 1000 children < 5 years old) was 4 for HMPV [8] . In Mali, contribution of HMPV to pneumonia had a population attributable fraction of 9% (95% CI: 7-11%) [9] ; while in Morocco [10] , 8 .9% of children < 5 years admitted with severe pneumonia were infected with HMPV. HMPV prevalence and incidence elsewhere globally, is indicated in Additional file 4: Table S1 . Of note is that the variations in incidence rates could be attributed to study population, seasonality and even detection methods. Nonetheless, genomic epidemiology of HMPV in Africa is inadequately reported, and comparison of genetic similarity and differences between African and global strains is not documented. Genome sequences provide valuable resources for characterizing viral evolution and disease epidemiology, and for identifying transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic fragments [11] [12] [13] . The increased number of phylogenetically informative variant sites obtained from full genomes may allow better linking of cases and aid public health interventions in real time during epidemics [14, 15] . PCR approaches for targeted whole genome sequencing, in contrast to random amplification, can preferentially amplify the target virus over host or environmental nucleic acids [16, 17] potentially focusing sequencing on the virus of interest. To date, the largest dataset of HMPV whole genomes (n = 61) sequenced from any tropical country is from three Peruvian cities, Lima, Piura and Iquitos [18] . In Africa, apart from one metapneumovirus genome identified from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda (GenBank accession number HM197719), there are no HMPV genomes reported according to the NIAID Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR, http://www.viprbrc. org/, accessed April 30, 2019). This has led to limited understanding of the genetic and genomic diversity of HMPV in the continent. This work describes a whole genome sequencing (WGS) approach for HMPV from a small number of HMPV positive clinical samples collected at Kilifi County Hospital in Kilifi, Kenya and University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia. The genomes were generated by sequencing overlapping PCR amplicons spanning the entire genome. These are the first reported complete genome sequences of locally circulating HMPV strains obtained directly from clinical samples in Africa. We also combined the new genomes with publicly available sequences to examine patterns in global HMPV genetic diversity. Whole genome sequencing was successful for all 5 clinical samples that were attempted. A single genomic sequence was obtained from each sample, and the length of the 5 new HMPV genomes ranged from 13,097 to 13, 134 nt (> 95% length coverage). Sequencing and data assembly parameters, including coverage depth are shown in Table 1 . Sequence annotation of the full-length genomes using Geneious R8.1.5 (https://www.geneious.com) identified the expected eight coding ORFs and non-coding genomic regions. The overall nucleotide identity (i.e., identical sites averaging over all sequence pairs and excluding positions containing gaps) between all 143 genome sequences analyzed (5 new genomes plus 138 from ViPR) was 58.2%. Nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3% within HMPV-A and 80% within HMPV-B. Intrasubgroup, A1, A2, B1 and B2 genomes shared 92.1% (10 sequences), 76.8% (88 sequences), 91% (24 sequences) and 89.6% (21 sequences) amino acid sequence identity. For the 143 HMPV genomes, we checked sequence conservation at transcriptional control regions, at the termini of each gene, as well as the lengths of intergenic sequences between gene boundaries. The length of the F-M2 intergenic region was different between group A and B viruses, that is, 13 nt and 2 nt, respectively. The SH-G and G-L intergenic regions were the longest, up to 125 nt and to 190 nt, respectively. Consensus nucleotides (9 to 19 length) at the putative start and end regions flanking the ORF of the viral genes are shown in Fig. 1 . The gene-start and -end regions of N and P were conserved (> 90% average pairwise identity) in both HMPV groups, and the M2 and M gene-start and -end were also conserved in HMPV group A and B, respectively. The putative ATG start codon was consistently located at positions 14-16 upstream of a gene start motif (consensus: GG/AGAC/TAAA/GTnnnnATG), except for the internal M2-2. An additional ATG start codon upstream of the gene-start motif was observed in the SH gene for the B1 and B2 strains. In five of the eight annotated genes (N, P, F, M2, and G (B1 and B2 strains only)), the intergenic regions were short and the ORFs for these 5 genes terminated within the propositioned gene-end motifs. We combined the five genome sequences from Kenya and Zambia with available global sequences, aligned individual genes and calculated the percent nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) identity ( Table 2) . The coding sequences of N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes were conserved at nucleotide and amino acid levels, by sharing > 85% between-subgroup nucleotide identity and 90% protein identity ( Table 3 ). The nucleoprotein gene was the most conserved among all subgroups at the nt and aa levels. SH and G glycoprotein genes were more divergent between the HMPV subgroups at the nucleotide level with 76 and 63% identity, respectively. The SH protein length was variable between group A and B strains due to a nucleotide substitution (CAA ➔ TAA) at gene position 532 in group B, resulting in protein lengths of 178 and 180 aa, respectively. The predicted G protein length also varied among the different HMPV subgroups, between 219 and 241 aa, due to different positions of the Stop codon. Amino acid sequence diversity for G and SH glycoproteins is depicted in Fig. 2 and Additional file 2: Figure S2 , respectively. The diversity of the complete nucleotide sequences of SH and G genes is depicted in phylogenetic trees in Fig. 3 . We evaluated phylogenetic classification and relationship between the 5 new genomes obtained in this study and previously published genomes (Fig. 3) . Full genome Figure S3 . There was phylogenetic congruence with the individual gene sequence sets as with the full genome dataset, except for F and M2 gene (Additional file 3: Figure S3 ). Variant or drifted viral strains may lower the sensitivity of detection resulting in a decreased quantitation of the viral load and underestimation of disease incidence [19] . We checked the new HMPV genomes for nucleotide differences in the genomic regions targeted by our diagnostic rRT-PCR primers and probes (Additional file 7: Table S4 ) used for HMPV detection. Up to eight primer-and probetemplate mismatches were identified (Fig. 4) : one mismatch in the forward primer region in HMPV group A (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4a ); one mismatch in each of the forward and probe target regions in group B (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4b) ; and 5 different mismatches with the N-gene based rRT-PCR assay (Fig. 4c) . Note, the F gene-based rRT-PCR assays are different or specific to the two HMPV groups. HMPV causes respiratory illness presenting as mild upper respiratory tract infection or life-threatening severe bronchiolitis and pneumonia primarily in children, sometimes adults as well as immunocompromised individuals [2] . However, HMPV genome sequence data from Africa is sparse and information on genome-wide diversity is limited. In the present study, the whole genome sequences of five HMPV strains from Kenya and Zambia were determined and compared with the genomes published previously from around the world. Comparative sequence analysis indicated fairly conserved positioning of the gene-start and -end regions as well as translational start and -end codons. Variation in genestart and -end sequences can have significant impact on transcription initiation and termination efficiency so that there is more selective pressure preventing changes in these regions [20] , and this likely explains our observation. The additional ATG start codon found upstream of the gene-start motif of the SH gene was consistent with a previous report [21] , though its role in gene expression is yet to be identified. These observed sequence conservation in N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes is not unusual and is suggestive of functional and structural constraints on diversity, but less expected of the F gene because of its status as a neutralization and protective antigen, similar to its close 'relative' RSV [22] . It has also been suggested that the low diversity in F gene might make a substantial contribution to cross-neutralization and cross-protection between the HMPV subgroups [21] . The relatively high frequency of amino acid diversity in G (and to a lesser extent SH) could be attributable to selective pressure for amino acid change coming from host immunity; and the ability of the protein to tolerate substitutions, which might be due to its proposed extended, unfolded nature [22] . The phylogenetic incongruence observed between whole genome tree and the F and G gene trees, is as reported previously for HMPV [23] , and could be attributed to differential rates of evolution, selection pressure or past recombination events [24] . The prevalence of HMPV in hospitalized pediatric population in Kilifi county in coastal Kenya has been reported [7, 25] . However, it is notable that in recent years, HMPV has been detected at low prevalence in Kilifi (unpublished observations from hospital-based pneumonia surveillance). Whether this low prevalence is due to reduced virus transmission, or decreased sensitivity of our HMPV molecular diagnostic assay due to progressive primer/probe mismatches, is yet to be established. We present the first full genome sequences of circulating HMPV strains from sub-Saharan Africa. A limitation of our sequencing method, as is common with amplicon sequencing protocols [26, 27] , was absent coverage at the 3′ leader and 5′ trailer regions not captured by these primers. Our results demonstrate the application of amplicon sequencing to generate full length HMPV genomes directly from clinical samples. The observed diversity of the individual genes is comparable to that described previously [20] [21] [22] . This method and data provide a useful reference for design of local molecular diagnostics and for studies aimed at understanding HMPV epidemiology and evolution in Africa. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP) swab samples were collected from children (1-59 months) hospitalized with pneumonia, four of whom were enrolled in the PERCH study [18] in 2012. The fifth sample was collected from a child enrolled in the routine pneumonia surveillance study at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, in 2015. The samples were tested for HMPV by multiplex semi-quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) assays. The rRT-PCR primers and probes used, cycling conditions and assay set up have been described elsewhere [28, 29] . Fusion (F) and glycoprotein (G) encoding genes of the HMPV positive samples were amplified in a one-step RT-PCR assay (OneStep RT-PCR kit, QIAGEN), as described previously [7] . Partial G or F nucleotide sequences were analyzed by maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees using IQ-TREE [30] , together with reference strains of HMPV subgroups (accession numbers AF371337.2, FJ168779, AY297749, AY530095, JN184401 and AY297748). Five HMPV positive samples from the Kenya and Zambia study sites, belonging to the A2a (n = 1), A2b (n = 2), B1 (n = 1) and B2 (n = 1) genetic subgroups based on their G and F gene sequences, were selected for whole genome sequencing. Data on age, sex and clinical assessment information collected at the time of sample collection, for the five selected samples, are shown in Table 3 . The sequencing protocol consisted of four steps as follows: (i) primer design, (ii) preparation of primer mixes, (iii) cDNA and PCR (iv) Illumina sequencing and data analysis. All human metapneumovirus (HMPV) full genome sequences were retrieved from GenBank (January 2018) using the query (txid162145 (Organism) AND 12000(SLEN): 14000(SLEN) NOT patent). Sequence entries with gaps larger than 6 nt were excluded to generate a set of yielding 178 genomes. All possible 23 nt sequences were generated from the genomes dataset and trimmed to a final calculated melting temperature (Tm) of 47.9-49.5°C. Sequences with homology to rRNA sequences, with GC content outside < 0.3 or > 0.75 or with a single nucleotide fractional content of > 0.6 were discarded. The primer set was then made nonredundant yielding 60,746 potential primers. All potential primers were mapped against the 178 HMPV full genomes and the number of perfect matches (frequency score) was determined as a measure of primer sequence conservation. To select primers, the HMPV genome sequences were divided into amplicons with 222 nt overlap spanning the virus genome. Potential primers that mapped within the terminal 5′ and 3′ 222 nt of each amplicon were identified and the sequence with the highest frequency score was selected, and primers mapping to the reverse bins were reverse complemented. In this manner, 24 primers were selected for each of the 4 HMPV genotype representative genomes (GenBank accession number HMPV A1: AF371337, HMPV A2: FJ168779; HMPV B1: AY525843, and HMPV B2: FJ168778). Because of conservation between genotypes, there was primer redundancy which was removed. The final set of 65 primer sequences, their lengths, calculated Tm, fractional GC content and mapping position on the HMPV genome are presented in Additional file 5: Table S2 . The primers were computationally tested against each of the 4 HMPV subgroups. A graphical representation of the primer target sites is presented in Additional file 1: Figure S1 . Amplification was performed in two reactions. To avoid generating small products from adjacent forward and reverse primers, amplicons were assigned to alternate Table 3 ). Bootstrap support values (evaluated by 1000 replicates) are indicated along the branches. Genetic subgroups A1, A2a, A2b, B1, and B2, are indicated. Multiple sequence alignment was done using MAFFT and the ML phylogeny inferred using GTR + Γ nucleotide substitution model and ultrafast bootstrap approximation in IQ-TREE. The genotype B2 Sabana strain sequence (GenBank accession number HM197719) reported from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda is marked in blue. The scaled bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site reactions, with reaction 1 containing primers for amplicons 1,3,5,7,9,11; reaction 2 containing primers for amplicons 2,4,6,8,10,12. Each reverse transcription used Forward Primer Mixes (FPMs) made with 3.0 μl of each reverse primer (100 pmol/μl) plus water to 200 μl to generate a primer concentration of 24 pmol/μl. Two microlitre of the FPM is then used in a 20 μl reverse transcription reaction (2.4 pmol/μl final concentration in reaction or 2.4 μM/primer). For PCR amplification, each amplicon reaction used a separate PCR Primer Mix (PPM) containing 1.5 μl of each 100 pmol/μl forward primer and 1.5 μl of each reverse primer (5.3-5.5 pmol/μl total primer in the PPM). 2 μl PPM was used per 25 μl PCR reaction = 0.5 pmol/μl in reaction (= 500 nM). Viral nucleic acids were extracted from the original samples using QIAamp Viral RNA Mini kit (QIAGEN). RNA (5 μl) was reverse transcribed into cDNA using SuperScript III (200 U, Invitrogen), RT buffer (1X final concentration, Invitrogen), and 2 μl of FPM in 20 μl reactions. An aliquot of cDNA (5 μl) was amplified in 35 cycles using Phusion Highfidelity PCR kit (New England Biolabs) and 2 μl of PPM in a 25 μl reaction. The PCR mixture was incubated at 98°C for 30 s, followed by 35 cycles of 98°C for 10 s, 43°C for 30 s, and 72°C for 90s and a final extension of 72°C for 10 min. Expected PCR products for each amplicon were approximately 1500 bp. PCR products from the two reactions for each sample were pooled for Illumina library preparation. Fig. 4 Mismatches between the rRT-PCR diagnostic primers and probes and their expected binding sites in the five genomes from Kenya and Zambia. 'Fwd primer' = Forward primer and 'Rev primer' = Reverse primer. Two rRT-PCR assays were used for HMPV detection. The colored bars in the figure indicate nucleotide differences (mismatches) between (a) three HMPV-A genomes and HMPV-A specific primers and probes targeting fusion gene, (b) two HMPV-B genomes and HMPV-B specific primers and probes also targeting fusion gene, and (c) all five genomes reported here and specific primers and probes targeting nucleoprotein gene. The sequences of the rRT-PCR primers and probes checked against the African HMPV genomes are listed in Additional file 7: Table S4 Illumina sequencing and data analysis Libraries were prepared using Nextera XT kit (Illumina) and pair-end sequencing (2 × 300 base pairs) with the MiSeq Reagent V3 kit (Illumina), following the manufacturer's instructions. The Nextera enzyme mix was used to simultaneously fragment input DNA and tag with universal adapters in a single tube reaction, followed by 12-cycle PCR reaction for dual indexing. Agencourt AMPure XP beads (Beckman Coulter) were used for all purification steps and libraries were quantified and quality-checked using the Qubit (Thermo Fisher) and Bioanalyzer (Agilent). Adapter trimming, quality filtering, kmer normalization of sequencing reads, de novo assembly, calculation of mean genome coverage was as previously described [31] . A dataset of HMPV genome sequences was retrieved from ViPR in order to infer relationship between HMPV viruses from Kenya and Zambia and viral populations sampled globally. The dataset included 138 sequence entries (> 13,000 nt) that included date (year) and location of sample Table S3 ). Sequence alignment was done using MAFFT v.7.221 [32] using the parameters 'localpair -maxiterate 1000'. IQ-TREE was used to infer maximum likelihood (ML) trees of the complete genome and individual genes under general time-reversible (GTR) substitution model with gamma-distributed among-site rate heterogeneity. A summary of the methodology outlined here is depicted in Fig. 5 .

What is the most common subgroup of HMPV?

Neutralization Interfering Antibodies: A “Novel” Example of Humoral Immune Dysfunction Facilitating Viral Escape? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3499828/ SHA: f4f75af02b7226c5b2363de1a75821a4b9b20412 Authors: Nicasio, Mancini; Sautto, Giuseppe; Clementi, Nicola; Diotti, Roberta A.; Criscuolo, Elena; Castelli, Matteo; Solforosi, Laura; Clementi, Massimo; Burioni, Roberto Date: 2012-09-24 DOI: 10.3390/v4091731 License: cc-by Abstract: The immune response against some viral pathogens, in particular those causing chronic infections, is often ineffective notwithstanding a robust humoral neutralizing response. Several evasion mechanisms capable of subverting the activity of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) have been described. Among them, the elicitation of non-neutralizing and interfering Abs has been hypothesized. Recently, this evasion mechanism has acquired an increasing interest given its possible impact on novel nAb-based antiviral therapeutic and prophylactic approaches. In this review, we illustrate the mechanisms of Ab-mediated interference and the viral pathogens described in literature as able to adopt this “novel” evasion strategy. Text: Hypervariable viruses adopt several mechanisms to cope with the host humoral immune response. The most studied mechanism is the accumulation of point mutations on immunodominant regions of surface proteins, making them no longer recognizable by previously generated neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) [1] [2] [3] [4] . Other escape mechanisms involving surface proteins include glycosylation of functionally pivotal residues (the glycan shield) or their association with host serum components (e.g., lipoproteins) in order to mask them from the immune system [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] (Figure 1A ). Other known escape mechanisms are (i) a sort of protected route of virus spreading, such as cell-to-cell transmission [10, 11] ; (ii) the molecular mimicry between viral proteins and host self-antigens or (iii) the viral-induced stimulation of subfamily-restricted antibodies (Abs), both with obvious implications in viral-induced autoimmune diseases such as cryoglobulinemia for HCV [12] [13] [14] . The possible interfering effect of non-neutralizing Abs (non-nAbs) was originally proposed by Dulbecco et al. in 1956 [15] , to explain the apparent inhibition of virus neutralization exerted by some serum samples. Recently, this proposed immune escape mechanism has re-acquired a relevant interest, especially considering the potential clinical use of neutralizing anti-infectious nAbs or the design of epitope-based vaccinal approaches [16] . To date, two main mechanisms have been proposed for the interfering effects of non-nAbs: (i) direct binding interference by steric hindrance, (ii) inhibition of binding following conformational changes of the viral antigen bound by interfering non-nAbs. Moreover, it has been speculated that, even when not directly interfering with nAbs binding, non-nAbs may also lead to the enhancement of viral infection through interaction with Fc receptors or complement receptors [17] . Overall, possibly elicited non-nAbs in infected or vaccinated individuals may interfere with the neutralizing potential of nAbs. In more detail, these interfering Abs are able to bind viral proteins at the level of immunodominant but functionally irrelevant regions of viral proteins, decreasing or blocking the binding of nAbs to crucial viral epitopes (e.g., receptor-binding domains) ( Figure 1B ) [18] . A candidate antiviral monoclonal antibody (mAb) or polyclonal preparation should not be subjected to this mechanism of interference, or to the other escape mechanisms previously mentioned. Similarly, novel vaccinal approaches should avoid the elicitation of interfering Abs that could even worsen the disease in case of a real infection. In the following paragraphs we discuss these mechanisms with specific examples of their role in the course of the viral infections where they have been described. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a positive-sense single stranded RNA enveloped virus causing chronic hepatitis in most untreated patients (about 80%), with the consequent risk of developing cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. More than 170 million people (2%-3% of the world population) are infected worldwide, and a protective vaccine is not yet available, whereas therapeutic options are still limited and not completely effective [19] . For these reasons chronic HCV infection represents the major indication for liver transplantation in Europe and United States. Moreover, transplanted recipients are subject to high risk of graft re-infection and to a more severe and rapid progression of the liver disease [20] . Schematic representation of viral escape mechanisms from humoral immune response against surface viral proteins: point mutations on immunodominant regions, glycosylation of functionally pivotal residues (glycan shield) of the viral surface proteins and virus association with host serum components (e.g., lipoproteins) (B) Mechanisms of interference on nAb-mediated virus neutralization by the binding of interfering non-nAbs: non-neutralizing/interfering Abs might interfere with the binding of nAbs by steric hindrance following a spatial occupancy of their epitope or a competition for the binding; otherwise the binding of non-neutralizing/interfering Abs may induce conformational changes on the viral protein, thus affecting nAb binding to the antigen. Non-neutralizing/interfering Abs are depicted in black while nAbs in yellow. The HCV genome encodes a single polyprotein of about 3,000 aminoacids that is processed by host and viral proteases into at least 3 structural (core, E1 and E2) and 7 non-structural (p7, NS2, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, NS5A and NS5B) proteins [21, 22] . In particular, the envelope type I membrane glycoproteins E1 and E2 form non-covalent heterodimers on the surface of the HCV envelope and allow clathrin-mediated virus endocytosis interacting consecutively with several entry cellular factors such as glycosaminoglycans [23] [24] [25] , low-density lipoprotein receptor [26, 27] , scavenger receptor class B type I [28] , the tetraspanin CD81 [29] , the tight-junction proteins claudin-1 and occludin, and the recently described Niemann-Pick C1-like 1 cholesterol absorption receptor [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] . The development of effective prophylactic and therapeutic approaches against this virus has been hindered mainly by its high mutation rate that gives rise to highly diversified viral variants, even within a single patient (quasispecies) [35] . Indeed, seven major genotypes, varying by up to 30% in nucleotide sequence, and several subtypes are recognized, each characterized by different clinical features such as different evolutionary rates to chronic liver diseases or different response to available antiviral therapies [21, 36, 37] . The development and use of anti-HCV mAbs capable of targeting structurally and functionally conserved regions of the highly variable viral particles are being considered as novel therapeutic tools [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] . In particular, the production of potent nAbs in acute infections has been shown to correlate with viral clearance in a single-source outbreak cohort [44] . Moreover, in vaccinated chimpanzees, a sustained Ab response to envelope glycoproteins E1 and E2 correlates with reduced viremia [45] , while the passive administration of neutralizing mAbs in a uPA-SCID chimeric mouse model of infection was able to protect against challenge with a HCV quasispecies inoculum [46] . Broadly cross-neutralizing human mAbs directed against the surface E2 glycoprotein of HCV (HCV/E2) are typically directed against functionally important regions within the CD81 binding site [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] , as well as against other critical residues highly conserved among different genotypes [55, 56] . This aspect is crucial for the possible therapeutic in vivo use of such mAbs, but it may not be sufficient since it has been recently supposed that other non-nAb populations may interfere with their neutralizing activity [39, [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . In fact, in persistently infected individuals anti-HCV/E2 cross-nAbs are generally elicited at low titer and in a late stage of the infection, leading to a poor control of viremia, whereas quasispecies-specific neutralizing or high titer non-nAbs are elicited earlier [53, [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] . Moreover, the in vivo use of anti-HCV polyclonal immunoglobulin preparations in both chimpanzees and humans has been disappointing, and clinical studies have shown that these preparations fail to prevent recurrent infections in patients after liver transplantation [63] . At this regard, a recent paper has suggested that the effect of some of these nAbs, directed against functionally important residues involved in the viral binding to CD81 (within epitope I, encompassing aminoacid residues 412-426), could be hindered by the presence of non-nAbs binding residues within epitope II on HCV/E2 (aminoacid residues 434-446) [58] . In particular, blocking of these interfering epitope II-specific Abs not only raised the neutralizing titer of serum containing both epitope I-and epitope II-specific Abs, but also uncovered a broader cross-genotype neutralizing response [58] . However, the role (and the existence itself) of these interfering Abs in influencing HCV infection is still controversial. Some authors recently corroborated the data of Zhang et al. by in vitro neutralization assays using serum-derived HCV of genotype 4a and polyclonal Abs derived from immunized goats with different conserved peptides spanning aminoacid residues 412-419, 430-447 and 517-531 of HCV/E2 glycoprotein [64] . In particular, this group found an interfering activity exerted by the weakly neutralizing 430-447-elicited Abs on the neutralizing activity of both the 412-419 and the 517-531-elicited Abs [64] . Interestingly, according to the putative model for E2 folding, all the three aforementioned regions would lie next to each other on the glycoprotein [48] . Therefore, this structural prediction possibly supports the interfering effect of epitope II-directed Abs. However, while this predicted structure is currently the best model available, these conclusions cannot be absolutely ascertained. For this purpose, the availability of E1-E2 crystal will certainly accelerate the fine elucidation of the spatial proximities of neutralizing and interfering mAbs on the E1-E2 structure and, consequently, structure-based vaccine progress. Moreover, it is noteworthy that individuals with Abs that target the region of E2 encompassing epitope I frequently harbor Abs that recognize the region containing epitope II, thus confirming the co-immunogenicity of these epitopes [58] . Finally, it has been shown both a low prevalence (less than 2.5%) and a low titer of epitope I-reactive Abs in sera from both chronic and acute resolved infections thus supporting the hypothesis of a conformational masking by adjacent regions such as that containing epitope II [65] . In fact, Zhang et al. originally put forward the idea that once epitope II is bound to an Ab, the site of epitope I becomes masked and can no longer be recognized by specific nAbs. Indeed, depletion of Abs to epitope II in plasma from a chronically infected HCV patient and vaccinated chimpanzees recovered an otherwise undetectable cross-genotype neutralizing activity [58] . Another possibility is that the initial binding of interfering Abs to the region containing epitope II may induce conformational changes on E2 that inhibit the binding by epitope I-directed Abs, as recently suggested by Lapierre et al. for other anti-HCV/E2 Abs [66] . Conversely, these conclusions were not supported in a recent study by Tarr et al. using murine (AP33) and rat (2/69a) mAbs, as well as human immunoglobulin fractions affinity-purified on linear peptides representing distinct HCV/E2 domains clustering within the regions 412-426 and 434-446 [67] . Although confirming the previously reported co-immunogenicity of these two regions, the authors failed to demonstrate any inhibition between these two groups of Abs. Considering their results, the authors indeed suggested that interference by non-nAbs, at least to the region encompassing residues 434-446, is not a possible mechanism for HCV persistence in chronically infected individuals, as it had been originally proposed by Zhang et al. In accordance with the findings of Tarr and colleagues, Keck et al. described anti-HCV/E2 human mAbs binding conformation-sensitive epitopes encompassing also some residues within the 434-446 interfering region [56] . These mAbs are broadly neutralizing and do not lead to viral escape mutants, demonstrating the functional importance of their epitopes. The authors conclude that not all Abs directed against epitope II are interfering, but they also speculate that the interfering activity could be limited to Abs recognizing linear epitopes within it [56] . Recently, we have partly confirmed the observations of Zhang et al. using a panel of anti-HCV/E2 mAbs: the well characterized mouse anti-HCV/E2 mAb AP33, whose epitope encompasses epitope I (aminoacid residues 412-423), and a weakly neutralizing human anti-HCV/E2 mAb (named e509), whose epitope encompasses epitope II [68] . In particular, we found that e509 is able to interfere with the neutralizing activity of AP33 on genotype 1a virus (strain H77). Instead, we found that e509 does not minimally interfere with the activity of two other broadly cross-neutralizing human anti-HCV/E2 mAbs, named e20 and e137 [49, 69] . Interestingly, we found that both e20 and e137 bind also residues within epitope II, at a higher affinity compared to e509, thus displacing it from the interfering epitope and, therefore, keeping unaltered their neutralizing activity. Thus, in our opinion, the described divergent observations reported above may depend on the different Ab specificities present in the polyclonal preparations used and, probably, also on the different HCV genotypes infecting the studied patients [68] . Moreover, the different strategies adopted in isolating epitope I-and epitope II-directed Abs followed in the studies above could explain the different data obtained. In fact, immunoglobulins purified on peptides representing distinct HCV/E2 regions [67] are obviously directed against linear epitopes; these preparations are certainly different from mAbs cloned using a full-length HCV/E2 glycoprotein, which are more probably directed against conformational epitopes including also residues outside the investigated linear regions [54] . To summarize, in the HCV field several works support the existence of interfering Ab populations and hypothesize their possible role in HCV persistence, as demonstrated using human plasma-derived immunoglobulin preparations, human mAbs, and sera of animals vaccinated with recombinant HCV/E2 peptides. The possible mechanism leading to the interference is still controversial, but both direct steric hindrance and induced antigen conformational changes have been hypothesized. On the other hand, other papers do not confirm these findings, suggesting that the putative interfering epitope II may be targeted by Abs endowed with a broadly neutralizing activity. Our recent paper, using well characterized mAbs [68] , shows that the interfering Abs do exist but that their overall effect may be biased by the presence of nAbs with different binding features and by the infecting HCV genotype. Future works investigating the in vivo role of these interfering Ab subpopulations in HCV persistence will certainly be very useful. The influenza viruses circulate worldwide in animal reservoirs, especially water fowl, potentially affecting humans of any age group. Influenza viruses are classified into types A, B or C based on antigenic differences of their nucleoprotein and matrix protein. The most clinically relevant and variable type is influenza A which is divided in several subtypes, according to the antigenic characteristic of the two envelope glycoproteins, and causes epidemic and pandemic infections [70] . The yearly recurring influenza epidemics are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly among risk groups (such as elderly people or those with chronic medical conditions, pregnant women and children) [71] ; the global spread of pandemic influenza viruses can cause millions of deaths [72] . Within the enveloped influenza virion eight segments of negative single-stranded RNA are protected by the nucleocapsid protein, forming the ribonucleoprotein (RNP). The first six RNA segments each code for a single protein: PB2, PB1, and PA (all constituting the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase), the hemagglutinin (HA), the nucleoprotein (NP), the neuraminidase (NA). The last two segments each code for two different proteins: the matrix proteins (M1 and M2) and the non-structural proteins (NS1 and NS2). Three different proteins (HA, NA and M2) are present on the viral envelope. The HA glycoprotein is the most abundant and it is the major target of the humoral immune response. Together with the NA transmembrane glycoprotein, HA is capable of eliciting a subtype-specific immune responses which is fully protective within, but only partially protective across different subtypes [73] . HA is synthesized as inactive precursor that transits into its active form upon cleavage by host cell proteases, and which is present on the viral membrane as homotrimers. HA trimers bind to 2,6-linked sialic acid molecules on cell membrane proteins or lipids through domains located in the globular head of each monomer. Subsequently, the viral envelope fuses by clathrin-dependent and -independent mechanisms with the endocytic vesicle membrane through the HA fusion peptide located in the stem region of each monomer. As a consequence, viral components are released into the host cell and can subvert the synthetic capabilities of the host cell for production and release of progeny particles [74] . The humoral immunity plays an important role in the host defense against influenza virus infection as most of Abs neutralize influenza viruses and, hence, limit infection [75] [76] [77] [78] . In fact, a large body of experimental works suggests that occlusion of the receptor-binding site on HA by Abs is the main mechanism of influenza viral neutralization. Less common, but more broadly nAbs may neutralize influenza virus by inhibiting fusion of the viral envelope with the endocytic-vesicle membrane [50, [79] [80] [81] [82] [83] . Aminoacid changes on HA, more frequent on the immunodominant globular head, have complex effects on viral neutralization by Abs, usually allowing the mutated variants to escape from previously generated nAbs [84] . Classical studies using neutralizing mouse mAbs identified five distinct antigenic sites (A-E) on the HA1 globular head region in the three-dimensional structure of the H3 HA molecule (A/Hong Kong/1/68) [85] [86] [87] as well as in H1 [88] and H2 subtypes [89] . During the first few days of an infection, the nAb titer is often low, while the titer of non-nAbs is higher and may play a role in the outcome of an infection, as recently observed for influenza A/2009 H1N1 pandemic virus infected patients by To et al. [90] . In particular, this group found that the amount, as well as the avidity, of non-nAbs were higher for patients with severe disease than for those with mild disease. The authors concluded that an exaggerated non-nAb response during the early stage of infection was associated with severe disease [90] . Moreover, the authors speculated that non-nAbs present in patients' sera during the early stage of infection were likely to be either preexisting or the result of a secondary heterosubtypic humoral immune response against more conserved epitopes on several influenza proteins [91] . This early humoral response can be elicited within a few days after infection, because of immune priming by previous exposure to shared viral epitopes. In fact, the matrix proteins and nucleoprotein have conserved aminoacid sequences, and therefore Abs against these proteins from previous seasonal influenza virus infection or vaccination could be induced [92] . Indeed, upon infection with influenza virus, memory B-cells can proliferate rapidly and generate a large amount of these high avidity non-nAbs, especially in patients with severe disease. This is consistent with the observation that the number of peripheral blood B-cells is higher in patients with severe disease than in those with mild disease during the early stage of infection. The mechanism of Ab neutralization interference has been indirectly speculated also by Ndifon et al., who observed that some aminoacid changes on HA actually increase the efficiency of neutralization of escape variants by previously generated Abs, even if not directly influencing their binding [93] . In detail, this group suggested that the increase in neutralizing activity after HA mutation could be the resultant of a lesser steric interference between Abs. Specifically, if there is a steric competition for binding to HA by Abs with different neutralization efficiency, then a mutation that reduces the binding of Abs with low neutralizing activity could increase the overall viral neutralization. Indeed, similarly to what has been speculated for HCV, Abs that bind to HA epitopes located at a distance from the receptor-binding site may therefore fail to occupy this site efficiently, thereby leading to a decreased viral neutralization. Moreover, it has been shown that Abs that bind to a certain HA epitope can prevent further binding of Abs to other epitopes of the same HA protein, and even to epitopes found on adjacent HA proteins. The above observations suggest that Abs that bind to low-neutralization efficiency epitopes of HA might interfere with the binding of nAbs to close high-neutralization efficiency epitopes, thereby impeding the neutralization of influenza viruses. Considering the HA structure, the binding of the interfering Abs would lie at the level of epitope C and E located far from the receptor-binding site on the globular head of the HA. However, the binding of these Abs may influence the binding of nAbs to epitopes A, B and D, located closer to the receptorbinding site [93] . At this regard changes to epitope A, B and D could be highly favored by natural selection, whereas changes to epitopes C and E could be disadvantageous to influenza viruses [93] . Similarly to HCV, but with a sounder confirm due to the availability of the crystal structure, these speculations raise the intriguing possibility that the influenza viruses may have evolved by favoring the preferential elicitation of Abs recognizing epitopes with a low-neutralization profile. Indeed, steric hindrance by Abs that bind these epitopes could greatly reduce the extent of mutation required for a virus to evade neutralization by host Abs. Consequently, a decrease in the affinity of Abs for epitopes with low-neutralization efficiency could lead to an increase in viral neutralization. This suggests a possible approach to design "low-interference" vaccines that could greatly diminish the impact of Ab interference. These immunogens are genetically modified from viral target only at the level of low-neutralization efficiency epitopes. Indeed, vaccine-induced Abs only recognize high-neutralization efficiency epitopes of the target and Abs induced by low-interference vaccine strain have low affinity for low-neutralization efficiency epitopes of the target circulating virus strain. Therefore, they do not interfere with Abs to high-neutralization efficiency epitopes, implying an improved neutralization. Consequently, limiting Ab-mediated interference, the target virus cannot escape from vaccine-induced Abs through small epitope changes. Alternatively, vaccines could be designed to include only those regions that correspond to epitopes with high-neutralization efficiency. Furthermore, antiviral drugs could be designed to include viral proteins carrying modifications at the level of high-neutralization efficiency epitopes; these "decoy" proteins would compete with virus for binding to low-neutralization efficiency Abs in a manner similar to that played by neuraminidase inhibitors. In synthesis, the availability of HA crystal structure has helped to confirm the existence and to explain the mechanisms of interference by non-or weakly-neutralizing anti-HA Abs. The recent work by To et al. [90] evidencing that a non-nAb response during the early stage of infection is associated with a severe disease, may be the first proof of the role of these interfering Abs in the course of a natural infection. The [94] . More than 8,000 cases, including almost 800 deaths, were reported during the outbreak period and increasing age and comorbidity were risk factors for severe disease and death [95] . Since 2003, only sporadic cases have been reported; however, the possibility that SARS outbreaks could reemerge naturally or be deliberately released is a public health concern. Like influenza viruses, SARS-CoV circulates in animal reservoirs, with bats that are thought to transmit the virus to small mammals with exposure to these small animals as the source of human infections [96] . The clinical disease is similar to other severe acute respiratory infections, including influenza, and the SARS case definition includes clinical, epidemiologic, and laboratory criteria [97, 98] . The basic genome organization and replicative cycle is similar for all CoVs. Gene 1 encodes all predicted replicase/transcriptase proteins, which are translated from input genomic RNA, while genes 2-9 encode structural and accessory proteins, including the envelope spike (S) protein, which are translated from separate subgenomic mRNAs. CoVs use a unique discontinuous mechanism to transcribe a series of progressively larger subgenomic mRNAs, and each contains a leader RNA sequence that is derived from the 5' end of the genome [99] . The S protein of CoVs is inserted in the envelope of the virion mediating binding and fusion events necessary for infection, and it is the major target of the humoral protective immunity [100] . Although the S protein of SARS-CoV (SARS-S) shares little aminoacid identity (approximately 20%-27%), it shares common structural features with S proteins of the other members of the Coronaviridae family. SARS-S protein is a type I transmembrane glycoprotein of approximately 1,255 amino acids in length and divided into two functional domains: S1 (aminoacid residues 15-680) and S2 (aminoacid residues 681-1,255) [101] . In many CoVs, the S protein is cleaved during biogenesis and these two functional domains are held together non-covalently; however, as in the case of human CoV 229E, the S protein is not cleaved in SARS-CoV [102] . The S1 domain forms a globular structure that mediates interaction of the S protein with its main receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), while the S2 domain mediates fusion and contains the putative fusion peptide and two conserved helical regions (HR1 and HR2) that upon cleavage by the endosomal protease cathepsin L form the six helix bundle fusion core [103] . Vaccine strategies aiming at blocking/limiting infection by SARS-CoV mainly focus on targeting the SARS-S viral glycoprotein [100] . Nonetheless, such a strategy poses a singular dilemma for CoVs, as previous vaccination protocols have highlighted the possibility of immune-mediated enhancement of the disease [104] . At this regard, the group of Zhong et al. investigated the role of non-neutralizing interfering Abs also in the case of SARS-CoV infection [105] . In particular, they found that two mAbs directed against the region encompassing aminoacid residues 491-510 of SARS-S (341C and 540C) act synergistically to inhibit SARS-CoV infection in vitro, while a non-neutralizing mAb (240C) whose epitope encompasses the above mentioned region, disrupted the neutralizing activity of both 341C and 540C [105, 106] . By analyzing the crystal structure of the SARS-S protein, the authors proposed a possible explanation to what observed, evidencing that the epitopes of all the mAbs are closely packed and proximal to each other but distal from the ACE2 receptor binding site [105] . Moreover, the epitope of the non-neutralizing mAb 240C partially overlaps by at least 2 aminoacids (P507 and A508) with that of the neutralizing mAb 341C. As a consequence, mAb 240C could inhibit mAb 341C binding in an equilibrium-related manner. On the other hand, the authors found that the 240C mAb could sterically interfere with the binding of the 540C mAb through the proposed mechanism of spatial occupancy ( Figure 1B) . In fact, the accessibility of mAb 540C to its epitope may be blocked by the mAb 240C binding that masks the surface area containing it. In fact, as speculated by Davies and Cohen, the buried area of an Ab can range from 500 Å 2 to more than 800 Å 2 corresponding to 21-32 aminoacids, although only 9-20 aminoacid residues (the real epitope) make direct contacts with the Ab [107] . In fact, as previously observed for HCV, influenza and other human and animal viruses [108] , one of the possible mechanisms is that the steric block by non-nAbs reduces the binding of nAbs on the SARS-S protein disabling neutralization. Conversely, notwithstanding the epitopes of mAbs 341C and 540C are located on a single loop; they are spatially separated thereby providing distinct interfaces for independent Ab binding. To conclude, SARS-CoV can elicit potentially interfering non-nAbs by presenting on its surface closely packed regions with different biological features. On the other hand, the host can mount a vigorous neutralizing humoral response by producing Abs that recognize distinct epitopes and act synergistically. In particular, these results suggest that a cocktail of neutralizing human mAb that can bind to unique epitopes and have different mechanisms of action might be of clinical utility against SARS-CoV infection, and indicate that a similar approach may be applied to treat other viral infections [109] . The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a positive single-stranded RNA retrovirus, causing substantial morbidity and mortality across the globe, particularly in developing countries. Human immunodeficiency viruses type 1 and 2 (HIV-1 and HIV-2) are the results of multi-interspecies transmissions from simian virus to humans. HIV-2 prevalence is low and there is an higher proportion of HIV-2 infected individuals that do not progress to acquired immunodeficiency disease syndrome (AIDS) compared with those infected with HIV-1 [110] . HIV-1 viruses are very divergent and are classified in four groups: M, N, O and P. In particular, the group M is subdivided in nine subtypes and numerous circulating recombinant forms [111] . The genome of all retroviruses encode the Gag, Pol and Env structural proteins. Among the HIV structural proteins, gp120 and gp41 surface envelope glycoproteins form heterodimers that are organized as trimers on the surface of the viral membrane. HIV-1 entry into target cells is initiated by the interaction of these surface envelope glycoproteins with CD4 and a co-receptor (typically CCR5 or CXCR4) on target cells [112] . The gp120 portion binds the target cell receptors, while gp41 promotes fusion of viral and cellular membranes [113] . Upon binding to the CD4 receptor, gp120 undergoes a conformational change, resulting in the exposure of epitopes that can be bound by co-receptor molecules and in the eventual formation of the transient pre-hairpin intermediate conformation [114] [115] [116] . In the pre-hairpin intermediate, the gp41 molecules reorganize so that the N-terminal peptides form a trimer of helices that expose the fusion peptide to the target cell, while the C-terminal helices remain anchored to the viral membrane [113] . This stage is vulnerable to a number of nAbs and peptides capable of binding either the N-or C-terminal peptides [117, 118] . Upon fusion with the target cell membrane, further gp41 reorganization results in the association of N-and C-terminal peptides to create a six-helix post-fusion bundle [119] . After fusion and delivery of the viral capsid in the cytoplasm, uncoating leads to the release of viral enzymes, proteins, and genomic RNA inside the cell. Reverse transcription of the viral genomic single-stranded positive RNA is then initiated to yield a double-stranded proviral DNA to be imported in the nucleus and integrated into host chromosome. Active transcription from the integrated proviral DNA occurs in the presence of NF-κB and viral Tat. Splicing of viral mRNA yields early accessory proteins like Tat, Rev, and Nef, which help in transcription, splicing, and modification of the cellular machinery, respectively. Accumulation of Rev protects the viral mRNA from splicing, thus yielding increasingly longer mRNAs able to code for structural and envelope proteins, and finally viral genomic RNAs is ready to be encapsidated [111] . Antiretroviral drug therapy for HIV is highly effective in controlling the infection; however, the eradication of this virus is currently not practicable and the treatment is therefore lifelong and burdened by considerable toxicity and drug resistance. A vaccine is widely viewed as being crucial for the control of the epidemic but several advanced efforts to develop an effective prophylaxis resulted unsuccessful [120, 121] . One of the greatest challenges in developing a vaccine against HIV is to overcome its ability to constantly mutate and escape anti-HIV immune responses [122] . This high mutation rate is a direct result of the presence of the virus' low fidelity RNA polymerase as well as the high levels of recombination it undergoes and the constantly evolving glycan shield of the envelope glycoproteins [123] [124] [125] . At this regard, both cytotoxic T lymphocytes and nAbs have long been reported to select for immune escape variants during the course of HIV-1 infection [126] [127] [128] . A candidate passive immunotherapy could consist, as previously suggested for SARS-CoV infection, in the administration of a cocktail of broadly neutralizing mAbs, that could minimize the onset of viral escape mutants [129] . Various combinations of human mAbs have been studied over the past several years which have shown additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effects on the neutralization of HIV-1 [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . Antagonistic effect in HIV-1 neutralization has been previously reported with a pair of anti-gp120 mAbs directed against the V3-loop and the CD4 binding site, respectively [136] . The molecular mechanisms determining the antagonism have not been further studied in details. The only study describing for the first time at the molecular level a possible mechanism of interference also for HIV was performed using pair combinations of anti-gp41 mAbs [137] . More in details, the authors noted an antagonistic effect when the anti-gp41 neutralizing mAbs 2F5 or 50-69 were combined with the non-neutralizing anti-gp41 mAb 98-6 [137] . In particular mAbs 50-69 and 98-6 recognize different gp41 epitopes located within cluster I (aminoacid residues 579-613) and cluster II (aminoacid residues 644-667), respectively. On the other hand mAb 2F5 recognize a different epitope from mAb 98-6, within the gp41 membrane-proximal external region (MPER), in a portion adjacent to the cluster II region of gp41. Moreover, there is some overlap between cluster II epitopes and the epitope recognized by mAb 2F5 [138] , explaining the inhibition of mAb 2F5 binding by mAb 98-6 [137, 139] . Thus, in the case of the antagonism between mAbs 2F5 and 98-6 the author hypothesized a mechanism of steric hindrance between the two mAbs as they could bind peptides and peptide complexes representing the pre-fusogenic and fusogenic forms of gp41 [140] . In particular, mAb 98-6 had a higher affinity for the peptide complexes representing the fusogenic form, than did 2F5. Thus, the binding of 98-6, which fails to neutralize the HIV-1 isolate 89.6 (HIV-1 89.6 ), could interfere with the binding of 2F5, leading to the neutralization antagonism. In contrast, mAbs 50-69 and 2F5 recognize distinct epitopes on gp41, and display independent (additive) reactivity against HIV-1 89.6 in combination with most of the other anti-gp41 and anti-gp120 mAbs tested [137] . To conclude, anti-gp120 and anti-gp41 Abs are induced in HIV-1-infected individuals but are predominantly non-neutralizing, since the functionally important regions of HIV surface proteins are almost completely hidden to the immune system [139] . An intriguing hypothesis is that, together with other HIV escape mechanisms, the effect of the extremely rare anti-gp41 and anti-gp120 nAbs may be also hindered by the overwhelming amount of interfering non-nAbs. To date, the existence of interfering non-nAbs has been clearly evidenced only using anti-gp41 mAbs with different biological features, whereas no data have been generated using anti-gp120 mAbs. The possible role of non-nAbmediated interference in facilitating HIV escape in the course of the natural infection certainly deserves future studies. Immunoprophylactic or immunotherapeutic approaches with mAbs are still considered a possible supporting tool in the management of infectious diseases. In particular, the availability of broadly neutralizing mAbs directed against viral pathogens, whose actual prophylactic and therapeutic approaches are far from effective, has led to many ongoing clinical trials. However, the evidence reported in this review suggest that candidate mAbs to be possibly used in antiviral passive immunization approaches, or to be elicited by future vaccine strategies, have not only to be highly cross-neutralizing molecules [141, 142] , but also tailored molecules whose activity is not influenced by possible interfering Abs produced in the course of infection. To this end, they must either be directed against highly neutralizing epitopes not subjected to the mechanism of interference, or must feature high affinity for the antigen in order to displace the binding of possible interfering Abs [51, 68] .

How are type A, B, and C viruses determined?

Clara Cell 10 kDa Protein Alleviates Murine Hepatitis Virus Strain 3-Induced Fulminant Hepatitis by Inhibiting Fibrinogen-Like Protein 2 Expression https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6300492/ SHA: f0c2cd2793d71f1ea11a810442a2c06d5013e899 Authors: Yu, Haijing; Liu, Yang; Wang, Hongwu; Wan, Xiaoyang; Huang, Jiaquan; Yan, Weiming; Xi, Dong; Luo, Xiaoping; Shen, Guanxin; Ning, Qin Date: 2018-12-13 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2018.02935 License: cc-by Abstract: Background: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious threat to human life, accompanied by massive and rapid necroinflammation. Kupffer cells, the major immune cell population involved in innate immune responses, are considered to be central for FH. Fibrinogen-like protein 2 (Fgl2) is a pro-coagulant protein that is substantially induced in macrophages upon viral infection, and Fgl2 depletion represses murine hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3) infection. Clara cell 10 kDa (CC10) protein is a secretory protein with anti-inflammatory properties in allergic rhinitis and asthma. However, its mechanisms of action and pathogenic roles in other disease are still unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the role of CC10 in FH and the regulation of Fgl2 by CC10. Methods: A mouse FH model was established by peritoneal injection of MHV-3. The mice received CC10 protein through tail vein injection before viral infection. Survival rate, liver function, liver histology, fibrin deposition, and necrosis were examined. The regulatory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression was investigated using THP-1 cells and mouse peritoneal macrophages in vitro. Results: In the mouse FH model induced by MHV-3, the survival rate increased from 0 to 12.5% in the CC10 group compared to that in the saline-only control group. Meanwhile, the levels of ALT and AST in serum were significantly decreased and liver damage was reduced. Furthermore, hepatic Fgl2, TNF-α, and IL-1β expression was obviously downregulated together with fibrin deposition, and hepatocyte apoptosis was reduced after administration of CC10 protein. In vitro, CC10 was found to significantly inhibit the expression of Fgl2 in IFN-γ-treated THP-1 cells and MHV-3-infected mouse peritoneal macrophages by western blot and real-time PCR. However, there was no direct interaction between CC10 and Fgl2 as shown by co-immunoprecipitation. Microarray investigations suggested that HMG-box transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was significantly low in CC10-treated and IFN-γ-primed THP-1 cells. HBP1-siRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial cells (HUVECs). Conclusion:CC10 protects against MHV-3-induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such effects may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. Text: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious life-threatening disease characterized by massive hepatocyte necrosis, severe liver damage, and high mortality. The underlying mechanisms and the pathogenesis of FH are not clear. However, accumulating evidence suggests that, regardless of the pathogenesis of FH, the host's inflammatory responses contribute to liver microcirculatory disorders and injuries. Accordingly, It has been shown that immune cell activation and inflammatory cytokines play an important role in FH (1) . In recent years, our laboratory has conducted extensive research on the pathogenesis of FH and found that immune cells play a key role in it. Kupffer cells, natural killer (NK) cells (2, 3) , cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs), and double negative T-cells (DNT) (4) (5) (6) in liver and the cytokines that are produced by these cells cause liver damage. Prothrombinase Fgl2 belongs to the fibrinogen superfamily and is produced by activated macrophages or endothelial cells, transforming prothrombin directly into thrombin, so as to quickly initiate the process of coagulation. This promotes the conversion of fibrinogen into fibrin, resulting in thrombosis (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) . Our study found that Fgl2 was highly expressed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and in liver tissue of humans or mice with severe viral hepatitis, and was positively related to the severity of the disease (13, 14) . Gene therapy targeting Fgl2 silencing showed that the survival rate of fulminant hepatitis mice increased from 0 to 33.3% (15) . Thus far, the discovery and related research involving Fgl2 have provided new insights into the molecular mechanism of hepatocyte necrosis in FH. In view of the important role of Fgl2 in severe viral hepatitis, investigations concerning the regulation of Fgl2 will be beneficial in the search for new strategies for treatment of severe hepatitis. Clara cell 10 kDa protein (CC10), also considered to be uteroglobin, Clara cell secretory protein, is one of members of secretoglobin superfamily. Expressed in mucosal epithelial cells of organs (including lungs and nose) that communicated with the outside world (16) . CC10 has immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects. Compared to wild-type mice, CC10-knockout mice exhibited excessive airway inflammation Abbreviations: FH, fulminant hepatitis; MHV-3, murine hepatitis virus strain 3; Fgl2, Fibrinogen-like protein 2; CC10, Clara cell 10 KDa protein; ALF, acute liver failure; PFU, plaque-forming units; PBS, phosphate-buffered saline; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; PCA, pro-coagulant activity; HRP, horseradish peroxidase; TUNEL, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling. caused by allergic reaction and bacterial and viral infections (17) . Reduced levels of CC10 are associated with inflammatory and allergic airway diseases, including sinusitis, asthma and allergic rhinitis (18) (19) (20) (21) . Previous studies and published articles show that CC10 protein can not only inhibit Th17 cell responses by inhibiting expression of related molecules of dendritic cells and cytokines in mice with allergic rhinitis, but also can inhibit chitosan-3 like protein 1 (22, 23) . Moreover, CC10 inhibits the expression of an important immune regulator, osteopontin (OPN), in models of allergic rhinitis (21) . In this study, we investigated the role of CC10 in hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3)-induced FH in mice and explored whether CC10 protein could regulate Fgl2 in the disease process. Female BALB/cJ mice (Shanghai Shilaike Animal Seed Center, Shanghai, China), 6-8 weeks of age, with a body weight of 18.0-20.0 g, were kept in Tongji Hospital with food and water. Mice were divided into two groups: CC10 group (experimental group) and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) group (control group). This study was carried out in accordance with the recommendations of the guidelines of the National Institutes of Health and the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. This study was reviewed and approved by the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. The human monocyte cell line THP-1 was purchased from the Cell Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were obtained from the Biology Treasure Center of Wuhan University, China. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line was acquired from the typical culture preservation commission cell bank, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) and CHO cells were cultured in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM), and THP-1 cells were maintained in RPMI 1,640 containing 10% heat inactivated fetal bovine serum (FBS, Gibco Life Technologies, USA), 100 U/mL penicillin, and 100 mg/mL streptomycin and cultured at 37 • C, 50 mL/L CO 2 and 95% humidity. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were obtained from BALB/cJ mice. Cells were resuspended in RPMI 1,640 supplemented with 10% FBS at 1-2 × 10 6 cells/mL in a 6-well plate and incubated for 4 h. They were then washed with RPMI 1640 medium and non-adherent cells discarded. The adherent cells were macrophages and were incubated for a further 12 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were divided into two groups. One group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/mL) and in the other group, PBS was added. After 2 h of stimulation, 1,000 plaque forming units (PFUs) of MHV-3 was added to the cells, which were then cultured for 4 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were harvested and lysed for real-time PCR and western blotting analysis. Cell apoptosis was detected by the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) method with a TUNEL apoptosis detection kit (Roche, Switzerland). Briefly, 5 µm sections were deparaffinized, dehydrated through an alcohol series and incubated with proteinase K for 30 min at 37 • C. After stopping the proteinase K digestion reaction with PBS, the samples were incubated with terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase end-labeling cocktail (a mixture of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase and dUTP at a ratio of 2:29, respectively), for 2 h at 37 • C in an immunohistochemistry wet box. Following washing and blocking, each section was supplemented with reagent (converter-POD) to cover the tissues and incubated for 30 min at 37 • C in a wet box. Then, the liver tissue sections were washed with PBS, and colored with diaminobenzidine (DAB) subsequently. Hepatocytes with nucleus stained brownish yellow were considered to be apoptotic cells. The expression of Fgl2 on THP-1 cells was measured by flow cytometry (BD FACS Canto II, USA). Briefly, cells (2 × 10 5 per tube) were incubated with Human TruStrain FcX (Fc Receptor Blocking solution, BioLegend, USA) for 10 min at room temperature and then incubated in the dark with mouse anti-Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Abnova,) or normal goat serum (an isotype control) at 4 • C for 40 min. Cells were washed with PBS and incubated in the dark with PE-conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG antibody (1:50, BioLegend, USA) at 4 • C for 30 min. Cells were then washed with PBS and resuspended in 300 µL PBS for study. Liver slices were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde and then embedded in paraffin. Immunohistochemistry of liver tissues was performed using SP-9001 SPlink Detection Kits (Biotin-Streptavidin HRP Detection Systems) (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China) according to the manufacturer's instructions. For immunohistochemistry staining, the expression of Fgl2, fibrinogen, Fas and TNF-receptor 1 in mouse liver tissues was detected with polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Proteintech, USA), polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse fibrinogen antibody (1:1,000, Abcam, EngLand), polyclonal rabbit antimouse Fas antibody (1:50, Abcam, EngLand), and polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse TNF-receptor 1 antibody (1:500, Abcam, EngLand), respectively. After incubation with an horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-labeled goat IgG fraction to rabbit IgG Fc, the target protein was detected using a DAB kit (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China). The slides were then counterstained with hematoxylin and visualized under a microscope (Olympus, Tokyo, Japan). Liver tissue and cells were homogenized in RIPA lysis buffer with phenyl methane sulfonyl fluoride (PMSF) protease inhibitor. Protein lysates were separated by SDS-PAGE, and western blotting was performed using a monoclonal mouse antihuman/mouse Fgl2 (1:750, Abnova), a monoclonal mouse antihuman HBP1 (1:100, Santa Cruz, USA), and a monoclonal rabbit anti-human/mouse β-actin (1:1,000, Cell Signaling Technology, USA). Liver tissues were collected from MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice at 72 h, and total RNA was extracted using Trizol Reagent (Invitrogen, USA) and then reverse transcribed into cDNA by using ReverTra Ace qPCR RT kit (TOYOBO, Japan). The cDNA was then amplified by RT-PCR by using Dream Taq Green PCR Master Mix (2 ×) (Thermo Scientific, USA). Realtime quantitative PCR (qPCR) with SYBR Green Real-time PCR Master Mix (TOYOBO, Japan) was performed using a CFX96 real-time PCR detection system (Bio-Rad, USA) and mRNA levels were normalized with reference to those of the house keeping gene GAPDH. Primer sequences for qPCR amplification were as follows: mTNF-α forward, 5 ′ -TTT GAG ATC CAT GCC GTT GG-3 ′ ; mTNF-α reverse, 5 ′ -GCCA CCA CGC TCT TCT GT-3 ′ ; mIL-1β forward, 5 ′ -TGT AAT GAA AGA CGG CAC ACC-3 ′ ; mIL-1β reverse, 5 ′ -TCT TCT TTG GGT ATT GCT TGG-3 ′ . mFgl2 forward, 5 ′ -GCC AAA TGT GAG TCC CTG GAA-3 ′ ; mFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -TTC CAC CCA AGA GCA CGT TTA AG-3 ′ ; hFgl2 forward 5 ′ -ACA GTT CAG GCT GGT GGT-3 ′ ; hFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -GGC TTA AAG TGC TTG GGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 forward, 5 ′ -TGA AGC AGA AGC TGG GAGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 reverse, THP-1 cells were treated with 100 ng/ml phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (Sigma, USA) for 48 h to induce differentiation toward adherent macrophage-like cells as reported previously (24) . The CC10 group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml). After 2 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/ml) was added to these cells, which were then cultured for 12 h before they were collected for western blotting and real-time PCR studies. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells were cultured in 10 cm cell culture dishes with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 80-90% confluence. Next, 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 (constructed in our lab) was mixed with 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hCC10 in serumfree DMEM. The mixture was then combined with Lipofectamine 2,000 (Invitrogen, USA) and mixed gently. After incubation at 27 • C for 20 min, the solution was added to CHO cells and incubated at 37 • C in 5% CO 2 . Four to Six hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, the cells were collected for co-immunoprecipitation analysis to evaluate the interaction of CC10 with Fgl2. Both HUVEC and THP-1 cells express fgl2. However, in the transfection experiments, it is difficult to transfect the THP-1 cells with siRNA, so we use HUVEC instead of THP-1. Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were cultured in FIGURE 1 | CC10 protein increased survival rate and reduced liver damage in mice. (A) The survival rate of CC10 group is higher than the control group comprised of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice treated with saline. CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein. BALB/cJ mice then received 100 PFU of MHV-3 intraperitoneally 24 h later to develop fulminant viral hepatitis. Then, CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein following MHV-3 infection 24 h later. The survival rate was observed for 10 days (n = 24/group). Representative data from three independent experiments are shown. The survival curve was analyzed by using the Log-Rank Test. ***P < 0.001 compared with saline group. (B) Histopathology of liver tissues (H&E staining; original magnification, ×400, n = 5/group) at 72 h post-MHV-3 infection was evaluated in the two groups of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice. Livers were collected from saline-treated (a) and CC10-treated (b) BALB/cJ mice at 72 h after MHV-3 infection. Arrows point to inflammatory cell infiltration areas or necrotic regions with inflammation. (C) Effect of CC10 on serum ALT and AST levels (n = 6-8/group). Values represent means and standard error of three independent experiments performed in triplicate. **P < 0.01 compared with the saline group. six-well plates with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 70-80% confluence. 50 pmol HBP1-siRNA was mixed with 125 µl serum-free DMEM. Two microliter Lipofectamine 2,000 was gently mixed with serum-free DMEM. After incubation at 27 • C for 5 min, the solution was added to HUVECs and incubated at 37 • C. Four hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, cells were collected for real-time PCR and western blot analysis to evaluate the effects of HBP1 on Fgl2. At 24 h after transfection, the CC10 group was supplemented with the CC10 protein (150 ng/mL). After 4 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/mL) was added to these cells. These cells were then cultured for 24 h before they were harvested for real-time PCR studies to evaluate the effects of CC10 on Fgl2 by HBP1. Negative control was used as a control. To detect whether there was a potential interaction between CC10 protein and Fgl2, CHO cells were transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 for 48 h. Cells transfected with empty plasmid pcDNA3.1 (mock) were used as negative controls for CC10 gene transfection. Immunoprecipitation and immunoblotting were performed by using Pierce Co-Immunoprecipitation Kit (Pierce, USA). Total cell proteins were extracted as previously described (25) . The proteins were immunoprecipitated by mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). For co-immunoprecipitation experiments, western blotting was performed using both rat anti-human uteroglobin/SCGB1A1 Antibody (1:750, R&D, USA) Frontiers in Immunology | www.frontiersin.org and mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). Control isotype rat IgG1 was used as a negative control for primary antibodies. The human CC10 coding region gene, including a 389 bp sequence, was amplified from homogenized human turbinate tissue by RT-PCR. In this study, the sequences of PCR primers for CC10 were as follows: hCC10-forward, 5 ′ -CCC TCC ACC ATG AAA CTCG-3 ′ ; hCC10-reverse, 5 ′ -TGA GAT GCT TGT GGT TTA TTG AAG-3 ′ . The PCR products were cloned into pEASY-T1 cloning vector (TransGEN, Beijing, China) and then subcloned into HindIII/XbaI site of pcDNA3.1 vector (Invitrogen, USA) to form eukaryotic expression plasmids pcDNA3.1-hCC10. Microarray analysis was used to screen changes in genome-wide gene expression patterns in THP-1 cells with or without CC10 protein. The changes in over 47,000 human gene expression patterns were assessed using Affymetrix gene microarrays (Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0) (CapitalBio Co.,Ltd., Beijing, China). Three replicates were used for microarrays analysis. Data obtained from the experiments are expressed as means ± SEM. Survival curve comparisons were performed with the Log Rank test. Multiple group analyses for data were evaluated by one-way analyses of variance. Analyses of two group results were performed using Student's t-test to evaluate the statistical significance of differences. Values of P < 0.05 indicated significance. To establish an animal model of mouse FH, MHV-3 was injected intraperitoneally to BALB/cJ mice (24 mice/group). To further study the role of CC10 in FH, recombinant mouse CC10 protein (2 µg/mouse) or saline was administrated into the tail vein 24 h prior to MHV-3 infection. The same dose of CC10 protein or saline was then administered 24 h later. The survival rate of the CC10 and saline groups was observed for 10 days. The results showed that mice in the two groups began to die at 48 h after injection of MHV-3 and exhibited symptoms of horripilation, slow activity, and reduced food consumption. In the CC10 group 24 mice were alive on day 3 after infection, 4 mice alive on day 4, and 3 of 24 (12.5%) mice recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis. At the same time, in saline treated group, there were 5 mice alive on day 3, 1 mice alive on day 4 after infection, and no mice survived to day 5. That is to say, the mice in the saline group died within 3 or 4 days. Three of 24 (12.5%) mice of the CC10 group recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis ( Figure 1A) . To better understand the mechanisms underlying the biological effects of the CC10 protein, liver function (ALT and AST levels in serum) and liver histology in mice of MHV-3-infected was performed. Liver tissues were harvested 72 h following MHV-3 infection, and liver histology was detected by H&E staining. These results showed that there was substantial inflammatory cell infiltration and widespread necrosis of hepatocytes in the liver tissue of the saline group mice (Figure 1Ba ). There were rare or no infiltrating inflammatory cells, and few or no hepatocyte necrosis in the livers of mice in the CC10 group 72 h after MHV-3 infection (Figure 1Bb) . Serum ALT and AST levels in mice were observed 72 h after MHV-3 infection. The results showed that serum ALT and AST levels in the saline group reached a peak 72 h after MHV-3 infection, but there was no significant increase in the CC10 group compared to the levels in the control group (P < 0.01, Figure 1C) . These results suggested that CC10 protein has a role in protection against MHV-3-induced liver injury in mice. To further elucidate the mechanisms of reduced liver injury following CC10 protein injection, we investigated the cytokines TNF-α and IL-1β expression. Because these two cytokines play a crucial role in the liver damage of FH. They are characterized by an increase in apoptosis. Levels of TNF-α and IL-1β in liver tissues were markedly reduced in the CC10 group (as shown in Figure 2A) . Hepatic apoptosis (Figure 2B ) was significantly reduced in the CC10 group. We and collaborators have a long standing interest in studying the role of fgl2 in viral hepatitis. Fgl2 has been verified to play an essential role in the progression of fulminant viral hepatitis as we appreciate from previous reports. We have provided liver pathology figures and liver function for MHV-3 infected mice with a fgl2 gene knockout as shown in Supplementary Figure 1 . The data was comparable with previous reports from our center and collaborators. From this current study we shown that CC10 plays a protective role in liver damage.To study the related molecules of CC10 in MHV-3-induced FH mice, we evaluated whether there was crosstalk between Fgl2 and CC10. We found that the expression of Fgl2 in the liver of mice was reduced 72 h after MHV-3 infection and treatment with CC10 protein (Figures 3A,B) . Furthermore, fibrin deposition, an indicator of liver injury associated with Fgl2 expression in FH, was also decreased in the livers of CC10-treated mice compared to that in controls (Figure 3C ). This indicates that CC10 treatment reduced liver injury after viral infection by inhibiting Fgl2 expression. We examined the effect of increasing doses of CC10 protein (0, 50, 150, and 300 ng/mL) on IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. CC10 treatment showed a 10.1% decrease in THP-1 cells compared to that in control after stimulation with 10 ng/mL IFN-γ for 12 h. CC10 protein inhibited Fgl2 expression between doses of 0 ng/mL and 300 ng/mL (Figure 4A ). In particular, 150 ng/mL CC10 protein had the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression among the doses, and we chose this dose for the following experiments. We explored the effect of different time points of stimulation with a concentration of 150 ng/mL CC10 protein. After stimulation with CC10 protein for 6, 12, and 24 h compared to the PBS control, the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression was noted at 12 h; hence, we chose this time point for the following studies ( Figure 4B ). An increasing number of studies suggest that macrophages are the primary source of Fgl2. In order to ascertain that CC10 has a direct effect on macrophages, we treated THP-1 cells with recombinant CC10 and assessed the expression of Fgl2. Unlike in controls, IFN-γ induced a significant increase in Fgl2 expression. This effect was attenuated when cells were treated with CC10 protein (Figures 4C,D) , revealing that CC10 directly reduces the levels of Fgl2 in macrophages. To further explore the possibility that CC10 protein directly acts on macrophages, we infected murine PEMs with MHV-3 in the presence of recombinant CC10 and determined Fgl2 expression. Compared to levels in the controls, MHV-3infected macrophages exhibited a significant increase in Fgl2 production, and this effect was abolished by using CC10 protein (Figures 5A,B) , indicating that CC10 directly modulates Fgl2 production in macrophages. In order to determine genes that were downregulated after stimulation by CC10 protein, we used DNA microarray analysis to screen for differentially expressed genes. THP-1 cells were cultured and PMA was added to induce differentiation into macrophages. The production of Fgl2 was stimulated by IFNγ. The experimental group was treated with CC10 protein for microarray detection of differentially expressed genes. The results showed that the most obviously downregulated genes were UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, SOX4, HBP1, and Fgl2 (Supplementary Table 1) . And then these genes were tested by qPCR. However, UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, and SOX4 was not differentially expressed by qPCR, while HBP1 and fgl2 were still down-regulated genes. DNA microarray analysis identified HBP1 as a down-regulated gene involved in the pathological processes of the regulation of CC10. Recently, very limited studies have explored the role of HBP1 in FH. Nevertheless, the mechanistic functions of HBP1 in FH remain largely unexplored. Therefore, we selected this gene for further study. qPCR analysis confirmed that mRNA levels of HBP1 were significantly decreased in THP-1 cells after CC10 protein stimulation compared to that in the PBS control group (Figure 6A ). We knocked down HBP1 using HBP1-siRNA. Then, transfection of HBP1-SiRNA into HUVECs was detected by qPCR and western-blotting methods. As expected, HBP1 knockdown led to significantly decreased expression of HBP1 (Figures 6B,C) . Furthermore, HBP1 knockdown impaired expression of Fgl2 (Figure 6D ), suggesting that HBP1 was able to activate Fgl2. HBP1-SiRNA was used to transfect HUVECs. Then, IFN-γ was added to induce the expression of Fgl2 followed by stimulation with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml) after 2 h. Finally, we explored the expression of Fgl2 by qPCR. The results showed that HBP1-SiRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in HUVECs (Figure 7) . That is to say, CC10 could suppress Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such an effect may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. It is well-known that CC10 protein can suppress the immune response. In animal models of allergic diseases of the respiratory tract, most of evidences confirm this inhibition (26) . Its function in FH has not been investigated yet. Here, we used a murine FH model established by MHV-3 infection to explore the effects of CC10 in this disease process. To determine the role of CC10 in the pathogenesis of FH, CC10 protein was injected into a mouse FH model established by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3-induced liver injury in CC10-treated mice occurred rarely and the areas of lesions were much fewer than those in saline-treated control mice. In summary, these results suggested that CC10 could reduce pathological liver damage in this FH model together with lower mortality rates followed by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3 induced fulminant viral hepatitis progresses rapidly and infected mice die within 3-5 days. Previous studies suggested fgl2 played a vital role in this process with a 15-40% increase of survival when fgl2 was deleted (12, 15, 27, 28) . Multiple inflammatory factors or mediators including TNF-α and IFN-γ, IL-1β and C5aR have been demonstrated to promote FH progression with significant discrepancies between liver damage and survival rate (29) (30) (31) (32) , which is accordant with our observation that CC10 substantially alleviated liver injury though survival rate improved mildly. The survival rate based on hours may be more accurate to examine the effect of CC10 on FH. It is speculated that fgl2 can mediate lethality in MHV-3-induced FH. This is due to the fact that fgl2 induces the deposition of fibrinogen, which leads to activation of the coagulation cascade and induction of procoagulant activity (15) . To determine whether the tissue necrosis was mediated by Fgl2 in CC10-treated mice following infection, Fgl2 expression was observed. Results suggested that the expression of Fgl2 was significantly increased in MHV-3-induced FH mice and CC10 treatment significantly reduced the production of Fgl2 in the infected liver and serum. In addition, decreased fibrinogen deposition was also observed in the livers of CC10-treated mice. Therefore, our research results strongly clarify that the lower mortality of CC10-treated mice after MHV-3 infection is due to the lower levels of Fgl2 and decreased fibrinogen deposition. Indeed, it has been reported that Fgl2 is expressed on macrophages, and the expression of Fgl2 is believed to be induced by IFN-γ and TNF-α (22) . Cultured THP-1 cells activated by IFN-γ or IL-2 have been demonstrated, with induction of Fgl2 expression and enhanced activation of human prothrombin (23) . Therefore, in this study, we explored this cell line to investigate the modulation of CC10 on Fgl2. Surprisingly, we found that CC10 directly inhibited IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. As we know, IFN-γ has proved to be the main cytokine that leads to the development and progression of FH. Also, it was shown that IFN-γ might exert its own proinflammatory biological function through enhancing Fgl2 expression. Therefore, in our study, CC10 might counter the effect of IFN-γ in the setting of FH, which substantiates its role in FH. These results demonstrated that CC10 regulates the expression of Fgl2 in macrophages. In the current study, we used co-immunoprecipitation to analyze binding between CC10 and Fgl2. In this study, we investigated possible protein-protein interactions between CC10 and Fgl2 in vitro. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2. Cellular proteins were immunoprecipitated with anti-CC10 antibody or anti-Fgl2 antibody. Immunoblotting was performed with anti-Fgl2 and anti-CC10 antibodies. Immunoprecipitation of protein extracts from pcDNA 3.1-CC10 and pcDNA3.1-Fgl2 co-transfected CHO cells with anti-Fgl2 or anti-CC10 antibody followed by western blotting with Fgl2 and CC10 antibodies indicated that CC10 did not co-immunoprecipitate with Fgl2, showing that there is no direct relationship between CC10 and Fgl2 (data not shown). The results showed that CC10 has no direct interaction with Fgl2. From our previous study the gene of fgl2 contributed profoundly in MHV-3 induced fulminant hepatitis and is extensively expressed in macrophages and endothelium (12, 33) . Our microarray indicated a CC10 down-regulated fgl2 expression and this is further confirmed by qPCR and Western blotting in vivo (peritoneal macrophages) and in vitro (THP-1, macrophage cell line). Therefore, it is reasonable to focus on macrophages to display the effect of CC10 on fgl2 expression and eventually mice survival. We entirely agree there may be other possibilities for a protective effect of CC10 to contribute to the disease process. This is worth further studies. The potential receptor of CC10 has not been revealed yet. Our previous study have demonstrated that CC10 have effect of dendritic cells in allergic rhinitis (34) . In this research, we evaluated the effect of CC10 on macrophages functions and found Fgl2 was substantially down-regulated upon CC10 treatment, therefore, we speculate that potential CC10 receptor may be also expressed on macrophages. The potential target of CC10 on other immune cells cannot be excluded. DNA microarray analysis is one of the most powerful approaches for the potential identification of unexpected genes involved in pathogenic processes. By using this approach, HMGbox transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was found to be one of the most downregulated genes after CC10 treatment of THP-1 cells. HBP1 is a well-described transcriptional repressor that modulates expression of genes involved in cell cycle progression. In a recent study, it was found that HBP1 is a direct target of miR-21 and confirmed that HBP1 modulates the inhibitory function of miR-21-ASO in hepatosteatosis and carcinogenesis simultaneously (23) . HBP1 is an endogenous inhibitor of the Wnt signaling pathway in both normal and cancer cells. The tumor suppressor role of HBP1 has been reported in some malignancies, such as oral cancer and glioma (35) . However, an association between HBP1 and Fgl2 has not been investigated yet. The current study clearly demonstrated that CC10 protects against MHV-3 induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression. Such effects might be mediated by HBP1. However, the functional status of HBP1 in the CC10 pathway requires further research, and such studies are conducting in our laboratory. In conclusion, we demonstrated that CC10 could limit the immunopathological damage in MHV-3-induced FH mice. Our results suggest that enhancing CC10 expression by an immunotherapeutic approach might be an effective treatment for FH. HY performed all the described experiments and wrote the manuscript. YL assisted with some experiments, analyzed experimental results, and edited the manuscript. HW analyzed experimental results. XW reviewed and edited the manuscript. JH, WY, DX, XL, GS, and QN provided experimental help and design.

What was the goal of this study?

Rotavirus A in wild and domestic animals from areas with environmental degradation in the Brazilian Amazon https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6298726/ SHA: f3c309c596c20f48f493b77e714ce957d877bdcb Authors: de Barros, Bruno de Cássio Veloso; Chagas, Elaine Nunes; Bezerra, Luna Wanessa; Ribeiro, Laila Graziela; Duarte Júnior, Jose Wandilson Barboza; Pereira, Diego; da Penha Junior, Edvaldo Tavares; Silva, Julia Rezende; Bezerra, Delana Andreza Melo; Bandeira, Renato Silva; Pinheiro, Helder Henrique Costa; Guerra, Sylvia de Fátima dos Santos; Guimarães, Ricardo José de Paula Souza e; Mascarenhas, Joana D'Arc Pereira Date: 2018-12-18 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0209005 License: cc-by Abstract: Acute gastroenteritis is one of the main causes of mortality in humans and young animals. Domestic and mainly wild animals such as bats, small rodents and birds are highly diversified animals in relation to their habitats and ecological niches and are widely distributed geographically in environments of forest fragmentation in some areas of the Amazon, being considered important sources for viruses that affect humans and other animals. Due to the anthropical activities, these animals changed their natural habitat and adapted to urbanized environments, thus representing risks to human and animal health. Although the knowledge of the global diversity of enteric viruses is scarce, there are reports demonstrating the detection of rotavirus in domestic animals and animals of productive systems, such as bovines and pigs. The present study investigated the prevalence of Rotavirus A in 648 fecal samples of different animal species from the northeastern mesoregion of the state of Pará, Brazil, which is characterized as an urbanized area with forest fragments. The fecal specimens were collected from October 2014 to April 2016 and subjected to a Qualitative Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-qPCR), using the NSP3 gene as a target. It was observed that 27.5% (178/648) of the samples presented positive results for RVA, with 178 samples distributed in birds (23.6%), canines (21.35%), chiropterans (17.98%), bovines (14.6%), horses (8.43%), small rodents (6.74%), pigs (3.93%) and felines (3.37%), demonstrating the circulation of RVA in domestic animals and suggesting that such proximity could cause transmissions between different species and the occurrence of rearrangements in the genome of RVA as already described in the literature, associated to the traces of environmental degradation in the studied areas. Text: Emerging and reemerging infectious diseases are increasing each year in several countries, with an impact both on human populations and on domestic and wild animals living in areas with considerable forest remnants [1] . Most of these diseases are of viral origin, suggesting the emergence and reemergence of viruses that are triggered by human activities that modify the environment [2] . The populations of wild animals that inhabit forest fragments are strategic groups for studies of public health and the transmission of zoonosis, given that they act as indicators in the assistance and intervention in the human populations, aiming at the prevention of outbreaks and epidemics [3] . Acute gastroenteritis can be caused by infection in the gastrointestinal tract, caused by different infectious or parasite agents [4] [5] [6] [7] . They represent one of the main causes of mortality in humans, and in young animals, counting for about 25% of mortality [8] . Rotavirus is widely distributed in animals, which act as sources of rotavirus emergent strains, with these animals acting in the transmission between species and through reassortment leading to the emergence of new strains which have been reported in human infections [9] [10] [11] [12] . The rotavirus (RV) belongs to the Reoviridae family and comprises nine species known as Rotavirus group A to I, with a recent proposal of the J species [13, 14] . Rotavirus A (RVA) is widespread worldwide and predominantly infects humans, bovines and other mammal species, as well as birds [15] . They have a double-stranded ribonucleic acid (dsRNA) genome, divided into 11 segments coding for structural proteins (VP1-VP4, VP6 and VP7) and nonstructural (NSP1-NSP5/NSP6) proteins [16, 17] . There are records of a close relationship between Amazonian wildlife and human populations [18] , and this interaction is the effect of anthropogenic urbanization activities that result in the deforestation of forest areas, causing the degradation of previously isolated sites such as caves and small caves, a continuous and nature progressive process that has led not only to changes in wildlife habitats but also to a greater relationship with human populations in rural and urban environments, contributing to the occurrence and emergence of diseases different from what normally occurs in endemic regions [19] [20] [21] [22] . Although the results of RVA have already been described globally [12, [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] , in Brazil, the occurrence, diversity and role of rotavirus in these animals are still poorly studied, considering the large number of present species [4, [31] [32] [33] [34] . In the Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Pará, the city of Belém and Northeast metropolitan mesoregions are some of the areas with the highest indexes of environmental changes [35] , which are concentrated, along with the fact that the knowledge of the global diversity of enteric virus in animals is scarce [36] . Therefore, it is important to monitor the health of domestic and wild animals in their natural habitat, especially in areas with anthropic alterations that have an interface with rural communities and enterprises, in order to investigate the occurrence of RVA in this population. These communities are ecologically complex, because they have multiple hosts and endless pathogens that may eventually circulate in contiguous urban centers, in addition to the fact that it should also be considered that there is still a lack of studies showing the significance of these viruses infecting this population, as in the context of epidemiological surveillance, these animals become important, since they can be considered as natural sources, with the possibility of transmission to humans [37] [38] [39] . The qualitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) used the NSP3 gene and the TaqMan probe from a highly conserved region of the rotavirus non-structural protein 3 (NSP3), which was previously used in samples from human origin and with low viral loads Precipitation data were obtained from The Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (Inmethttp://www.inmet.gov.br/) for the years of capture in the Expedito Ribeiro Settlement (2014) and Açailândia (2015) of the Data Collection Platforms (PCDs) of Belém, located 50 km from Santa Bárbara do Pará, and Tracuateua, located 50 km from Peixe-Boi and 100 km from Viseu. Garmin GPSMap 64s Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates were collected in the field. The municipal boundaries were obtained on the website of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) (http://www.ibge.gov.br/) and data on deforestation and land use were obtained from the PRODES [43] and TerraClass [44] Projects. PRODES has annual data in digital format since 2000 and TerraClass presents biannual data since 2004. The satellite image was generated using the sensor Sentinel 2 of the European Space Agency (ESA) (https://sentinel.esa.int/ web/sentinel/user-guides/sentinel-2-msi) with Open Access CC-BY License (http://open.esa.int/) from the years of 2017 and 2018. All the data obtained was stored in a Geographic Database (BDG). The BDG was imported/ stored in a GIS for the editing of the graphic elements, establishment of topological relations between the elements and their respective attributes, spatial analysis and visualization of the result through thematic maps. For the present study, forest fragments of similar size, shape and Phyto physiology were chosen, considering an open peri urban matrix with similar soil use. The selected fragments were distributed within the mesoregions studied, and in each selected fragment fecal samples were randomly collected from domestic and wild animals [45] . Soil use classes were obtained from the TerraClass data mosaic from 2004 to 2016, because the study sites were in an area with a high cloud presence, which prevented observation (the area was not observed). The data processing, interpretation, visualization and spatial analysis were performed in ArcGIS software (http://www.arcgis.com/). For the analysis of data related to the determination of the richness, composition and abundance of the fauna of the animals studied in the study area, considering the collection methods adopted and the species available in each city, each sample was considered as an independent sample. The richness of wild fauna and domestic animals was determined by the total number of species including all collection methods, and the similarity of species was made by the chi-square analysis between the samples of the different treatments with the aid of the EstimateS 8.0 software [46] . For the calculation of the Test T, the Statistica software was used, and the indices of infected animals in the two environments (forest fragment and peridomicile) were calculated for each treatment sampled by collection area, using the software Past 1.92. Aiming at comparing the values of the diversity indexes through the paired test, as well as the descriptive analysis of the anthropic effects [47] . The data obtained for the occurrence of RVA and the questionnaires was inserted into a database for a descriptive analysis of the epidemiological profile of the animal population in the three forest ecosystems studied. In this analysis, descriptive statistical treatments were carried out, using customized "row-columns" type charts, referring to the data, in order to characterize the sample and quantify the results using absolute frequency values using the chi-square test and the Test T. Population study, collection of clinical specimens and laboratory methodology. The flying animals (wild birds and chiroptera) were captured using mist nets which were opened at dawn (4:00 a.m.) and closed in the morning (9:00 a.m.) and were inspected every one hour until the closing, with a sampling effort of 15 days. This research was approved by National All procedures with animals were performed by veterinarians, being birds and bats identified and released at the same capture site. The fecal specimens were collected by stimulation of the rectal ampulla with the use of a "Zaragatoa", packed in cryogenic vials, identified, stored in liquid nitrogen, and later sent to the Laboratory. Wild animals (small non-flying mammals) were trapped within live-containment traps of the Tomahawk cage (size 45x16x16cm) and Sherman type aluminum (size 30x9x8cm). In each sample plot, 61 traps were distributed, 20 Shermans and 41 Tomahawks being baited with a mixture made with peanut paste, sardines, cod liver oil and corn meal, as well as fruit like banana, apple and pineapple. All the traps used were inspected daily in the morning, the baits being exchanged when necessary and later after the capture in bags of cloth and at least five specimens of each species were chosen for the collection of biological material. The wild animals were sedated with a combination of ketamine 20mg/kg and xylazine 2mg/kg intramuscularly and subsequently, euthanized with anesthetic overdose of 2% lidocaine in the foramen magnum, according to the recommendation of the National Council for the Control of Animal Experimentation (CONCEA). From October 2014 to April 2016, 1,282 fecal samples were collected from wild and domestic animals. Amongthese, 648 (50.5%) samples were randomly selected for RVA research and handled in Level Three Biosafety Laboratory (NB3). The viral genome was extracted using the TRIZOL LS REAGENT protocol (INVITRO-GEN, USA/KIT QIAGEN), following the manufacturer's recommendations, with minor adaptation according to the protocol described in the supplemental data. The qRT-PCR was conducted according to Zeng et al. [40] for the detection of RVA using the NSP3 segment of RVA as the target gene sequence. The assay was conducted in a mixture containing: RNAse-free H 2 O, TaqMan RT-PCR Mix (2x), TAqMan RT Enzyme Mix (40x), primers for the NSP3 gene, Primer NSP3 Forward (20mM), Primer NSP3 Reverse (20mM), probe NSP3 S (10nm), Template (RNA) 3μL, having a total reaction volume of 17μL and reverse transcription cycling of 50˚C, 30 minutes, denaturation of 95˚C, 10 minutes, annealing of 45 cycles of 95˚C, 15 seconds and extension of 60˚C, 1 minute. The analyzes were considered positive when presenting the cycle threshold (CT) � 40. In order to guarantee a reliable test result, the measurements of contamination control were performed with the use of positive animal control (SA11 prototype) and a negative control (ultrapure water). All RVA-positive samples were subjected to reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) according to Mijatovic et al [41] to genotyping low viral loads samples. First round was performed with consensus primers N-VP4F1/N-VP4R1 and the Nested-PCR was conducted with N-VP4F2/N-VP4R2 primers to amplify VP4 gene. Amplicons were purified and sequencing for VP4 gene using the same primers of Nested-PCR. The sequences were collected from an automated ABI Prism 3130xl DNA sequencer (Applied Biosystems). The sequence fragments were assembled and edited using the Geneious Bioinformatics software platform v.8.1.7. Posteriorly, the data were compared with othersequences from the National Center for Biotechnology Information GenBank database using BLAST alignment tool to elucidate the RVA genotype of the samples. From October 2014 to April 2016, a total of 648 fecal samples of wild and domestic animals belonging to three forest fragments areas were tested for the NSP3 gene by qualitative qPCR, and 178 (27.5%) were positive for RVA, distributed among the species: birds (23.6%), canines (21.35%), bats (17.98%), cattle (14.6%), horses (8.43%), small rodents (6.74%), swine (3.93%) and felines (3.37%). The CT interval ranged from 28. 47 It was possible to detect viral strains in all genders of animals studied and in the harvesting period none of the animals showed signs of acute infection and / or diarrhea. Rotavirus A (RVA) detected in the present study of wild and domestic animals belonging to the three areas of forest fragment, according to Fig 2. In relation to the evaluated bovines, only in the city of Viseu, these species were studied because they were created extensively. In addition, most of the animals were young with ages varying from 1 day to 8 yearsold, history of deficient vaccination, lack of technical assistance and raised in the form of subsistence. The animals showed no symptoms of diarrhea, only low weight performance and poor sanitary management status. In relation to chiroptera, 32 (17.98%) positive samples for RVA were distributed among Carollia perspicillata species, with 12 (37.5%) being all adults, 9 (28.12%) Desmodus rotundus samples (4 young and 5 adults), 5 (15.6%) of Uroderma bilobata (15.62%), 3 (9.37%) of Artibeus lituratus and the species Artibeus Planirostus, Diaemus iyoug and Glossophagine with 1 (3.12%) each. These animals came from areas of forest fragments located near bovine and equine farms, in addition to inhabiting small chicken farms. Fig 3 shows the results obtained for all the species of animals investigated in the forest fragment as well as in the peridomicillus area. The anthropic variables were analyzed for the three cities studied, as well as the use of the soil within the range of the animals, obeying the domicile, the peridomicile and the forest fragment where the traps of small rodents, birds and various species of animals were captured (Fig 4 and Fig 5) . Considering the factors related to the anthropic activities in the three studied areas within the three cities of the present study, it was observed that the city of Santa Bárbara is the one that has a better area of preserved forest and the city of Viseu a smaller area. However, in the city of Santa Bárbara, a greater concentration of occupations was observed around the area of forest fragment. It was observed in this chosen area of the city, the presence of different families living in a rural settlement, surviving from the exploitation of forest resources and the creation of small animals for subsistence, such as poultry and fish farming, as well as family farming products. The breeding of animals in native pastures was only observed in the cities of Peixe Boi and Viseu. Extensive livestock farming was practiced with beef cattle, equines for work and small animals (swine and goats). In relation to the most preserved pasture area, the city of Peixe Boi had the largest area, according to the data shown in Fig 5, however, in the city of Viseu, a higher regeneration was observed in the pastures during the period of the study, with significant secondary vegetation. When comparing the climates of the three areas it was observed that the predominant climate is megathermal and humid with average annual temperature around 27˚C. The months of October, November and December are the hottest, with temperatures between 32˚C and 34˚C and absolute maximums around 41˚C. Annual rainfall is quite high, generally around 2,350 mm, but strongly concentrated from January to June (80%). From September to December, on the contrary, rainfall is rare, about 7%, with a short dry season, of moderate water deficit in those months. The relative humidity of the average air oscillates around 85%, as shown in Fig 6 [48] . The description of the accumulated precipitation in the year of capture of the fecal specimens compared to the Climatological Normals (CLINO) for the period from 1961-1990 of the PCDs closest to the locations of the Expedito Ribeiro / Santa Bárbara settlement (Belém PCD), Vila Ananim / Peixe-Boi and Açaiteua / Viseu (Tracauateua PCD) show the frequency of rainfall in the regions, which facilitates the renewal of the pastures and the regeneration of the impacted forests, being an important indicator of the reduction of the damages caused by deforestation in the region. The average deforestation index in the three study areas was calculated from data obtained from INPE information systems. It was observed that in the years of 2013 to 2014 there were no changes in these regions; in the period from 2014 to 2015 about 4.1% of the city of Viseu was changed and 1.6% of the city of Peixe Boi. In relation to the period of 2016, great changes were observed in Peixe Boi (79%) and in the city of Viseu (70%), thus demonstrating that changes in the natural ecosystem may be associated with the frequencies for RVA in the studied areas, according to Fig 7. When assessing the infected animals in relation to the uninfected animals in both the forest fragment and the peridomicile, considering as animals of the forest fragment the birds, the chiroptera and the small rodents and as animals of the peridomicile the canines, bovines, pigs, felines and horses, a percentage of 37.07% infected peri domestic animals (86/232) and 22.12% infected forest fragment animals (92/416) were obtained. Applying the selected statistical analysis, a Pearson x2 Chi-square value was obtained: 16.7159, df = 1 and p <0.001, meaning that the hypothesis was corroborated, that is, the greater the degradation of the environment, the more likely it will be the search for food by wild animals in adjacent areas, or in the edge of the forest or even in the peri domiciliary region. In this sense, the possibility of contagion with other species of animals, even humans, should be considered because of the capacity of the rotavirus to be transmitted via the fecal / oral route or through direct contact with the environment. It is important to point out that the animals detected in this study are important sources of viral strains. A total of 80 stool samples were selected, reextracted and analyzed using PCR for the VP4 gene. Eight strains (10%) were positive for VP4 gene, being 2 strains bellowed to P [6] genotype and 6 to P[4]-type, according to In the present study, RVA was detected circulating in 27.5% of the animals; 36% in domestic animals and 64% in wild animals, providing a unique dataset with qRT-PCR detecting a low viral load of RVA in different species, which further correlates with the deforestation index. These data are important because there is a lack of tests for RVA diagnosis in animals, since the current methods of RVA detection does not always detect in these populations [8] . With the advent of real-time PCR (qPCR), there was an exponential growth, compared to conventional PCR essays, since its superior accuracy, sensitivity and specificity is remarkable, and it is Rotavirus A in wild and domestic animals possible to detect RVA in a variety of animal species using NSP3 gene [49] . The sensitivity of RT-qPCR significantly improved the rate of RVA detection in clinical samples from animals and in this context, the present study proposed an interesting study metrics using virus spreading in the wild animals which inhabit forest fragments to indicate human population interventions, with the goal of preventing the virus outbreaks leveraged on the unique geographic characteristics of Brazil and its large number of species in Amazon. Currently, no data have been described in the literature regarding the RVA detection using real-time qPCR technique in a wide variety of wild animal species. However, a study by Soltan et al. [50] conducted with horses and cattle detected RVA by RT-PCR, commercial RT-PCR and RT-qPCR in 36.7%, 51.4% and 56.9% respectively, differently from the present study that showed higher positivity for chiropterans (17.98%), canines (21.35%), birds (23.6%) and cattle (14.6%). The first description of RVA in chiroptera was recorded in feces of Eidolon helvum caught in Vihiga, Kenya [51] . Afterwards, several strains of RVA were detected by different molecular techniques involving chiroptera, in several countries, including Kenya (E. helvum), China (Rhinolophus hipposideros and Aselliscus stoliczkanus), France (Myotis mystacinus), Cameroon (E. helvum) and Brazil [31, [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] . The present study shows the occurrence of RVA in 17.98% of the chiroptera, being among the species Carollia perspicillata (37.5%), Desmodus rotundus (28.12%), Uroderma bilobata (15.6%), Artibeus lituratus (9.37%), Artibeus Planirostus (3.12%), Diaemus iyoug and Glossophagine (3.12%). Barquez et al. [56] reported that Desmodus rotundus is one of the three hematophagous species of the Phyllostomidae family, found throughout South America, Central America and Mexico. Of the positive chiroptera for RVA in the present study, a prevalence of 28.12% was of Desmodus rotundus. This species feeds on birds, can feed on mammals, mostly medium or large, facilitating the dissemination of viral spores among the community within the habitat, as observed in the present study. These findings show the importance of epidemiological data on the studied species due to the lack of studies involving species of neotropical chiroptera, and it is not possible to establish comparative parameters for these animals. Regarding the circulation of RVA in canines and birds, the prevalence was 53% and 29%, respectively. Although in the Amazon region there are records of RVA, RVD, RVF and RVG that infect birds [57] [58] and RVD in migratory birds [59] , all were detected by RT-PCR assays differently from the present study which detected the RVA by RT-qPCR involving a variety of animal species. On the other hand, the prevalence in felines (16%) and pigs (22%) was lower, probably because there are few animals of these species in the region, as well as few creations. The study detected the presence of RVA in different species of animals both in areas near the home and in areas located in fragments of forest, characterized as forest remnants, since they were located in cities that suffered high environmental impacts due to vegetal extractivism, pasture formation for cattle breeding, exploitation of natural resources, and direct reflexes on the habitats of wild animals that can serve as virus sources, thus facilitating the dispersion of RVA among communities of coexisting animals. It is worth emphasizing that these animals have a greater contact with the human populations of the studied areas since they cohabit with the humans in the region, besides having a high flow of movement between the forest extracts and environments chosen for the present study. However, it is noteworthy that only in the communities of Santa Bárbara and Viseu were collected fecal specimens from asymptomatic humans for diarrhea and tested for RVA, but all were negative. It is notorious yet, the existence of different levels of degradation in the studied environments, considering the presented data. The fragmentation of the forest generates many consequences on the Amazonian biota, being able to alter the diversity and the composition of the animal communities in the fragments and even to interfere in the ecological processes, without considering that the fragments of forest in the Amazon are influenced by the climate, possibly facilitating the dispersion of pathogens by the environment, since the wild animals detected in the present study are asymptomatic and have low viral load for RVA. The occurrence of RVA in this population of animals may explain the possibility of dispersion of viral strains, since there is a proximity to the human population, besides the biological characteristics of these species that may represent important sources for gastroenteric viruses, along with the fact that all animals were asymptomatic for diarrhea. Wild birds have unlimited flight capacity, were captured in an interface region between the peridomicile and forest fragments and it is believed that this region has not been influenced by anthropic activities such as those observed in the area of the present study. On the other hand, the breeding method for poultry and canines close to homes and the forest ecosystem, as they are created in the communities surveyed, probably facilitates direct contact with possible sources of contamination, since in the areas the use of septic tanks is deficient and sometimes non-existent, which may facilitate or even increase the risk of viral dispersion throughout the environment. The high rates of increase and the analysis of land use in the researched areas may be important indicators of how these animals interact, since with deforestation, the populations of wild animals seek refuge in nearby communities facilitating the dispersal of infectious agents and the possible occurrence of carrier animals by direct contact or contamination of the local environment. To our knowledge, this is the first study in which a real-time PCR assay was applied for the detection of RVA involving a wide variety of domestic and wild animals, facilitating practical utility in epidemiological and molecular studies and assisting in a perspective in the elaboration of sanitary control and monitoring, preventing possible outbreaks in the studied communities. The detection of positive animals was useful to monitor the infection of the agent in the animal population and to provide an early warning signal to predict an impending epidemic and a favorable risk for the human population, given the evidence of RVA circulation in the different forest fragments. In addition, the RT-qPCR assay may be a useful alternative for the differential diagnosis of RV in possible coexisting mixed infections clinically indistinguishable such as those caused by other viral strains that cause gastroenteritis such as: astrovirus, coronavirus, picobirnavirus, calicivirus, among others as observed in the studies of Jing et al. [60] and Waruhiu et al. [61] . Diarrhea associated with RVA infections in pigs is an important cause of increased mortality and economic losses in Europe. The most prevalent genotypes isolated from feces of Belgian diarrheal and non-diarrheal piglets in 2012 [62] demonstrate a wide range of combinations of genotypes G / P including; G3P [6] , G4P [6] , G5P [6] , G4P [7] , G5P [7] , G9P [7] , G9P [13] and G9P [23] . On the other hand, in the present study it was possible to detect only P [6] genotype, since majority of samples was asymptomatic for diarrhea. Finding shows that different P genotypes of RVA strains interact with distinct blood group histological antigens (HBGA, ABOH, Lewis) and sialic acids via VP4 providing insight into the regional prevalence and increased zoonotic potential of some RVA of origin swine [63] . The genotype P [6] was identified in piglets in Brazil [64] and in Italy and Japan resembling genotype P [6] human [65, 66] . In the population of animals studied the zoonotic transmission can be frequent, since the animals live in contact with humans and in precarious sanitary conditions. In Brazil, this genotype was described in animal and human populations in studies of Luchs et al. [32] ; Honma et al. [67] ; Araújo et al. [68] ; Mascarenhas et al. [69] and Lorenzetti et al. [70] such studies corroborate the importance of continuing to monitor genotypes to verify if uncommon strains or new strains are emerging and can infect animal populations or inter-species transmissions. Regarding the genotype P [4] , itwas most detected in our samples in bats, dogs, swine and feline. This genotype is not common in animals, being more detected in human and environmental samples in various parts of the world and included our region [71] . It is important to emphasize that the indicators of environmental contamination in Brazil are significant and contribute to the possibility of human-animal transmission [71] . Such data need further investigation in later work to better characterize the interspecies transmission, since the occurrence of enteric viruses in different matrices demonstrates the anthropogenic impact of the exposed population around and points to the potential risk of infection by the possible exposure of individuals susceptible. Our findings may be useful for tracking fecal contamination in the environment using animals as possible sources thus minimizing the risk of infection by exposure to susceptible individuals, in this case different animal species or even human populations. RVA were detected in wild and domestic animals using a RT-qPCR assay that analyzed samples that had low viral load for RVA. Although the samples are asymptomatic for diarrhea, it is necessary to conduct strategies for the monitoring and control of the animals in the areas studied in the human population as well as in other species of animals, as well as the implementation of preventive measures aimed at future outbreaks in communities animals in the resident population in these impacted areas. Therefore, the present study is unprecedented in the region and in the country in relation to the research of RVA in wild animals. It is noteworthy that, although the quality of the analyzed samples is characterized as low detectable viral load, the technique presented a good analytical response in the detection of the source animals for RVA, facilitating the selection of the samples for future genetic characterization tests.

What is qRT-PCR?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

What is the observed benefit of the molecules?

Epidemiological research priorities for public health control of the ongoing global novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7029449/ SHA: 90de2d957e1960b948b8c38c9877f9eca983f9eb Authors: Cowling, Benjamin J; Leung, Gabriel M Date: 2020-02-13 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.6.2000110 License: cc-by Abstract: Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2]. The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid- to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5–6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2,5], and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2]. Text: It is now 6 weeks since Chinese health authorities announced the discovery of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) [1] causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, the major transport hub of central China. The earliest human infections had occurred by early December 2019, and a large wet market in central Wuhan was linked to most, but not all, of the initial cases [2] . While evidence from the initial outbreak investigations seemed to suggest that 2019-nCoV could not easily spread between humans [3] , it is now very clear that infections have been spreading from person to person [2] . We recently estimated that more than 75,000 infections may have occurred in Wuhan as at 25 January 2020 [4] , and increasing numbers of infections continue to be detected in other cities in mainland China and around the world. A number of important characteristics of 2019-nCoV infection have already been identified, but in order to calibrate public health responses we need improved information on transmission dynamics, severity of the disease, immunity, and the impact of control and mitigation measures that have been applied to date. Infections with 2019-nCoV can spread from person to person, and in the earliest phase of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was estimated to be around 2.2, assuming a mean serial interval of 7.5 days [2] . The serial interval was not precisely estimated, and a potentially shorter mean serial interval would have corresponded to a slightly lower basic reproductive number. Control measures and changes in population behaviour later in January should have reduced the effective reproductive number. However, it is too early to estimate whether the effective reproductive number has been reduced to below the critical threshold of 1 because cases currently being detected and reported would have mostly been infected in mid-to late-January. Average delays between infection and illness onset have been estimated at around 5-6 days, with an upper limit of around 11-14 days [2, 5] , and delays from illness onset to laboratory confirmation added a further 10 days on average [2] . Chains of transmission have now been reported in a number of locations outside of mainland China. Within the coming days or weeks it will become clear whether sustained local transmission has been occurring in other cities outside of Hubei province in China, or in other countries. If sustained transmission does occur in other locations, it would be valuable to determine whether there is variation in transmissibility by location, for example because of different behaviours or control measures, or because of different environmental conditions. To address the latter, virus survival studies can be done in the laboratory to confirm whether there are preferred ranges of temperature or humidity for 2019-nCoV transmission to occur. In an analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection, 73% of cases with illness onset between 12 and 22 January reported no exposure to either a wet market or another person with symptoms of a respiratory illness [2] . The lack of reported exposure to another ill person could be attributed to lack of awareness or recall bias, but China's health minister publicly warned that pre-symptomatic transmission could be occurring [6] . Determining the extent to which asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission might be occurring is an urgent priority, because it has direct implications for public health and hospital infection control. Data on viral shedding dynamics could help in assessing duration of infectiousness. For severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV), infectivity peaked at around 10 days after illness onset [7] , consistent with the peak in viral load at around that time [8] . This allowed control of the SARS epidemic through prompt detection of cases and strict isolation. For influenza virus infections, virus shedding is highest on the day of illness onset and relatively higher from shortly before symptom onset until a few days after onset [9] . To date, transmission patterns of 2019-nCoV appear more similar to influenza, with contagiousness occurring around the time of symptom onset, rather than SARS. Transmission of respiratory viruses generally happens through large respiratory droplets, but some respiratory viruses can spread through fine particle aerosols [10] , and indirect transmission via fomites can also play a role. Coronaviruses can also infect the human gastrointestinal tract [11, 12] , and faecal-oral transmission might also play a role in this instance. The SARS-CoV superspreading event at Amoy Gardens where more than 300 cases were infected was attributed to faecal-oral, then airborne, spread through pressure differentials between contaminated effluent pipes, bathroom floor drains and flushing toilets [13] . The first large identifiable superspreading event during the present 2019-nCoV outbreak has apparently taken place on the Diamond Princess cruise liner quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan, with at least 130 passengers tested positive for 2019-nCoV as at 10 February 2020 [14] . Identifying which modes are important for 2019-nCoV transmission would inform the importance of personal protective measures such as face masks (and specifically which types) and hand hygiene. The first human infections were identified through a surveillance system for pneumonia of unknown aetiology, and all of the earliest infections therefore had Modelling studies incorporating healthcare capacity and processes pneumonia. It is well established that some infections can be severe, particularly in older adults with underlying medical conditions [15, 16] , but based on the generally mild clinical presentation of 2019-nCoV cases detected outside China, it appears that there could be many more mild infections than severe infections. Determining the spectrum of clinical manifestations of 2019-nCoV infections is perhaps the most urgent research priority, because it determines the strength of public health response required. If the seriousness of infection is similar to the 1918/19 Spanish influenza, and therefore at the upper end of severity scales in influenza pandemic plans, the same responses would be warranted for 2019-nCoV as for the most severe influenza pandemics. If, however, the seriousness of infection is similar to seasonal influenza, especially during milder seasons, mitigation measures could be tuned accordingly. Beyond a robust assessment of overall severity, it is also important to determine high risk groups. Infections would likely be more severe in older adults, obese individuals or those with underlying medical conditions, but there have not yet been reports of severity of infections in pregnant women, and very few cases have been reported in children [2] . Those under 18 years are a critical group to study in order to tease out the relative roles of susceptibility vs severity as possible underlying causes for the very rare recorded instances of infection in this age group. Are children protected from infection or do they not fall ill after infection? If they are naturally immune, which is unlikely, we should understand why; otherwise, even if they do not show symptoms, it is important to know if they shed the virus. Obviously, the question about virus shedding of those being infected but asymptomatic leads to the crucial question of infectivity. Answers to these questions are especially pertinent as basis for decisions on school closure as a social distancing intervention, which can be hugely disruptive not only for students but also because of its knock-on effect for child care and parental duties. Very few children have been confirmed 2019-nCoV cases so far but that does not necessarily mean that they are less susceptible or that they could not be latent carriers. Serosurveys in affected locations could inform this, in addition to truly assessing the clinical severity spectrum. Another question on susceptibility is regarding whether 2019-nCoV infection confers neutralising immunity, usually but not always, indicated by the presence of neutralising antibodies in convalescent sera. Some experts already questioned whether the 2019-nCoV may behave similarly to MERS-CoV in cases exhibiting mild symptoms without eliciting neutralising antibodies [17] . A separate question pertains to the possibility of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or of disease [18, 19] . If either of these were to be relevant, the transmission dynamics could become more complex. A wide range of control measures can be considered to contain or mitigate an emerging infection such as 2019-nCoV. Internationally, the past week has seen an increasing number of countries issue travel advisories or outright entry bans on persons from Hubei province or China as a whole, as well as substantial cuts in flights to and from affected areas out of commercial considerations. Evaluation of these mobility restrictions can confirm their potential effectiveness in delaying local epidemics [20] , and can also inform when as well as how to lift these restrictions. If and when local transmission begins in a particular location, a variety of community mitigation measures can be implemented by health authorities to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of an epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons [21] . A number of social distancing measures have already been implemented in Chinese cities in the past few weeks including school and workplace closures. It should now be an urgent priority to quantify the effects of these measures and specifically whether they can reduce the effective reproductive number below 1, because this will guide the response strategies in other locations. During the 1918/19 influenza pandemic, cities in the United States, which implemented the most aggressive and sustained community measures were the most successful ones in mitigating the impact of that pandemic [22] . Similarly to international travel interventions, local social distancing measures should be assessed for their impact and when they could be safely discontinued, albeit in a coordinated and deliberate manner across China such that recrudescence in the epidemic curve is minimised. Mobile telephony global positioning system (GPS) data and location services data from social media providers such as Baidu and Tencent in China could become the first occasion when these data inform outbreak control in real time. At the individual level, surgical face masks have often been a particularly visible image from affected cities in China. Face masks are essential components of personal protective equipment in healthcare settings, and should be recommended for ill persons in the community or for those who care for ill persons. However, there is now a shortage of supply of masks in China and elsewhere, and debates are ongoing about their protective value for uninfected persons in the general community. The Table summarises research gaps to guide the public health response identified. In conclusion, there are a number of urgent research priorities to inform the public health response to the global spread of 2019-nCoV infections. Establishing robust estimates of the clinical severity of infections is probably the most pressing, because flattening out the surge in hospital admissions would be essential if there is a danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed with patients who require inpatient care, not only for those infected with 2019-nCoV but also for urgent acute care of patients with other conditions including those scheduled for procedures and operations. In addressing the research gaps identified here, there is a need for strong collaboration of a competent corps of epidemiological scientists and public health workers who have the flexibility to cope with the surge capacity required, as well as support from laboratories that can deliver on the ever rising demand for diagnostic tests for 2019-nCoV and related sequelae. The readiness survey by Reusken et al. in this issue of Eurosurveillance testifies to the rapid response and capabilities of laboratories across Europe should the outbreak originating in Wuhan reach this continent [23] . In the medium term, we look towards the identification of efficacious pharmaceutical agents to prevent and treat what may likely become an endemic infection globally. Beyond the first year, one interesting possibility in the longer term, perhaps borne of wishful hope, is that after the first few epidemic waves, the subsequent endemic re-infections could be of milder severity. Particularly if children are being infected and are developing immunity hereafter, 2019-nCoV could optimistically become the fifth human coronavirus causing the common cold. None declared.

When does the infectivity of SARS-COV peak?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|[email protected], [email protected] Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. 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What is an infection-to-onset-distribution?

Demographic Variations of MERS-CoV Infection among Suspected and Confirmed Cases: An Epidemiological Analysis of Laboratory-Based Data from Riyadh Regional Laboratory https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7049846/ SHA: edee452881f826fb72c58ee68a982789b12aa99d Authors: Altamimi, Asmaa; Abu-Saris, Raghib; El-Metwally, Ashraf; Alaifan, Taghreed; Alamri, Aref Date: 2020-02-19 DOI: 10.1155/2020/9629747 License: cc-by Abstract: Introduction. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus was first recognized in September 2012 in Saudi Arabia. The clinical presentations of MERS and non-MERS SARI are often similar. Therefore, the identification of suspected cases that may have higher chances of being diagnosed as cases of MERS-CoV is essential. However, the real challenge is to flag these patients through some demographic markers. The nature of these markers has not previously been investigated in Saudi Arabia, and hence, this study aims to identify them. METHODS: It was a surveillance system-based study, for which data from a total of 23,646 suspected patients in Riyadh and Al Qassim regions were analyzed from January 2017 until December 2017 to estimate the prevalence of MERS-CoV among suspected cases and to determine potential demographic risk factors related to the confirmation of the diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 23,646 suspected cases, 119 (0.5%) were confirmed by laboratory results. These confirmed cases (67.2% of which were males) had a mean age of 43.23 years (SD ± 22.8). Around 42.2% of the confirmed cases were aged between 41 and 60 years and about 47% of confirmed cases had their suspected specimen tested in the summer. The study identified three significant and independent predictors for confirmation of the disease: an age between 41 and 60 years, male gender, and summer season admission. CONCLUSION: The study provides evidence that the MERS-CoV epidemic in the subject regions has specific characteristics that might help future plans for the prevention and management of such a contagious disease. Future studies should aim to confirm such findings in other regions of Saudi Arabia as well and explore potential preventable risk factors. Text: A respiratory viral disease caused by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus (MERS-CoV) was first isolated in 2012, in a 60-year-old man who died in Jeddah, KSA due to severe acute pneumonia and multiple organ failure [1] . Since then, 27 countries have reported the presence of this virus, including the 12 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean region. Several outbreaks have occurred in multiple countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the Republic of Korea [2] . Recent fatality rate (CFR) of 21% [5, 6] . Very limited evidence is available for exploring the epidemiology of this virus among the pediatric population [7] . e literature shows that MERS-CoV infects males more than females [8, 9] . e casefatality rate of men (52%) is higher than that of women (23%) [10] . Males with a history of serious medical conditions are highly susceptible to this infection. Moreover, the mean age of infection in adults is 60 years [10] . e mode of transmission is not entirely understood yet [2] ; however, human-to-human [11] and zoonotic sources of transmission [12] have been documented in many studies. Dromedary camels are the major animal source of MERS-CoV transmission to humans. Interhuman transmission of the virus did not occur easily, but it is seen mainly in patients' families and healthcare settings [2] . Clinical pictures of this infection varied from asymptomatic to mild respiratory symptoms to severe respiratory distress and death [2] . Severe ailment can often cause respiratory catastrophes that need mechanical ventilation and support in ICUs across different healthcare settings [4] . Studies have suggested an incubation period of 16 days with a mean of 5-6 days [12, 13] , while the median time until death is 11-13 days (range 5-27 days) among severely ill patients [13] . e gold standard test for the detection of this virus is real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays [14] . ere is no specific treatment for MERS-CoV. Like most viral infections, the treatment options are supportive and symptomatic [2] . At present, no vaccine exists for preventing the infections of MERS-CoV. e CDC indicated that preventative actions should be taken for any type of respiratory illness [4] . Such actions include washing hands with water and soap for around 20 seconds or using hand sanitizers with alcohol if no water is available. One must cover their nose and mouth during instances of sneezing and coughing with a tissue and avoid touching the mouth, nose, or eyes with their hands until washed properly. Repeatedly touched surfaces, such as door knobs, should be disinfected and cleaned regularly. Intimate personal contact, e.g., kissing, and sharing cups or eating utensils must also be avoided [15] . Many studies have been conducted in recent years in Saudi Arabia to combat this deadly disease. A large multicentre study showed that it is nearly impossible to differentiate between patients of MERS-CoV and non-MERS-CoV just on the basis of clinical presentation [16] . Another cohort study, which was hospital-based (17 cases vs. 82 controls), found that there were statistically significant differences in terms of gender, clinical, and radiographic presentations [17] . Similarly, two more single-centre case control studies reported that the presenting symptoms of MERS-CoV infection were not specific [18, 19] . Physicians and public health practitioners need to identify suspected cases which have higher chances of diagnosis as confirmed cases prior to laboratory testing (which usually takes between 12 and 24 hours). Identification of a confirmed case is necessary to implement preventive strategies to combat the spread of the disease to family members and hospital healthcare workers [20] . Mild symptomatic cases, which result in a positive PCR, may be isolated at home. Severe to moderate cases should be admitted to and isolated in a hospital until they improve and then be discharged for isolation at home for an extended period. Both mild and severe cases are retested after 7 days, and the test is subsequently repeated after every 3 days until a negative result is obtained [20] . Identifying suspected cases which may have higher chances of getting diagnosed as a confirmed case and implementing strict procedures on them might offer the best solution. e challenge is to flag these patients by some demographic markers, as the clinical presentation of MERS-CoV infected patients were non-specific. erefore, we aimed to identify some demographic markers specific to confirmed cases of MERS-CoV. e nature of these markers has not been investigated in Saudi Arabia, and hence this study aims to identify them. A cross-sectional study was conducted at the regional laboratory and blood bank, located at Shumaisi Hospital in Riyadh, KSA. e laboratory has received the Central Blood Banks and Reference Laboratories Accreditation Program Saudi Central Board for Accreditation of Healthcare Institution (CBAHI) 2018 [21] . Technique. Data were collected during the period of January 2017 to December 2017. All patients in Riyadh and Al-Qassim regions who had their samples tested at Riyadh regional lab during the study period were considered as suspected cases. e study had two aims: descriptive and analytical. For the descriptive aim, we estimated the prevalence of MERS-CoV. For the analytical aim, a binary logistic regression model was developed. In this model, we included the risk factors of gender, age, seasons, nationality, healthcare status (yes/no), hospitals, and area of residence. Data were cross-checked with a labcomputerized database. Further data were collected on demographic characteristics (age and sex), underlying nationality, and health care status. We collected data from 25,400 cases, of which 23,646 suspected cases of MERS-CoV were included in the final analysis. Data were cleaned, entered, stored, and managed with an excel database and IBM SPSS Version 25. e statistical analyses consisted of descriptive counts and percentages. For those continuously scaled items, nonparametric statistics (medians, interquartile ranges, minimum, and maximum) were used to describe the distribution. A logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of confirmation of infection within the suspected cases groups. At first, univariate analyses were conducted to estimate the unadjusted contribution and to determine the significant risk factors. is was followed by a multivariate logistic regression analysis to estimate the independent contribution of each covariate. To determine significant factors, a p value below 0.05 and a 95% confidence interval were considered. A confirmed case is defined as a suspected case with laboratory confirmation of MERS-CoV infection [20] . A total of 23,646 of MERS-CoV suspected cases were included in this study, of which 52.3% were males (n � 12376) and 47.7% were females (n � 11270). e age of individuals with suspected cases ranged between 0 to 92 years with a mean age of 43. 23 e adjusted odds of MERS-CoV remained significant among different age groups; the odds of patients aged between 20-40 years increased threefold (A.OR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.104-8.76, P value � 0.032), whereas in the age group of 41-60 years, it increased further to a risk that was six times higher is cross-sectional study about the epidemiological analysis of MERS-CoV infection laboratory-based data was conducted in Riyadh over a one-year period (2017). A total of 23,646 suspected cases were included in the results. Of the total suspected cases, 119 cases had been confirmed via laboratory results. All the confirmed cases are reported to MOH through HESN (health electronic surveillance networks) and to the World Health Organization (WHO) through the International Health Regulations (IHR), National Focal Point of Saudi Arabia. We found that MERS-CoV infection was found significantly in people aged between 41 and 60 years and was reported most commonly during the summer season. e odds of infection among males were found to be twice as high as that of females with suspected cases. During the study period, i.e., the year 2017, only 119 confirmed cases were reported, which means that the number of MERS-CoV infection cases has decreased in Riyadh and Al-Qassim regions in comparison to that of the last three years. From 2015 to 2016, there was a 25.4% decrease, whereas from 2016 to 2017, it decreased by 48.7%, which translates into a 50% decrease between the two periods. is also complements the findings reported by of Da'ar and Ahmed in their paper [23] . e predominance of infection in males was also observed in another study pwefromed in KSA (2015), which reported the percentage of confirmed cases among males to be 66%, compared with 34% among females [24] . It is worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia defines age categories differently from the WHO (children: 0-14, adult: otherwise) [20] . However, unlike the classification used in Saudi Arabia, we have followed the WHO categorization of age to differentiate between children/adolescents (0 to 19 years) and adults (20 years and older) as indicated in WHO reports for age-standardized population and in infectious diseases [25] . is categorization was also followed by Aly and his collaborators in their recent paper published in 2017 [14] . Adults were further subcategorized into three groups according to the age distribution of the study population using the following two cutoff points (age of 41 and age of 60) [14] . ese data agreed with a previous surveillance study, which stated that the majority of confirmed cases of MERS-CoV were reported among people aged 40 and above [24] . In 2016, only 9 of 552 cases (1.6%) of MERS-CoV infection were found among pediatric patients. Moreover, the study which was conducted in King Fahad Medical City in Riyadh (KFMC) between January 2012 and December 2013 did not report any MERS-CoV cases among children [26] . e study which was conducted across the Gulf countries for four years by Mahmoud Aly et al. between 2012 and 2016 suggests that the prevalence and distribution of MERS-CoV were the highest-risk in elderly aged 60 years or above [14] . Similar to our results, this study also reported the highest number of confirmed cases during the summer season [14] . Among confirmed cases, only 25.2% were healthcare workers, whereas around 75% were non-healthcare workers. is is in agreement with the study done by Ahmad to estimate the survival rate in MERS-CoV globally prior to 26 January 2017; 86.9% were not health-care workers compared with 13.1% confirmed cases of healthcare workers [27] . Similarly, other studies also reported a lower prevalence in healthcare workers [28] [29] [30] . Our data reported a higher prevalence of infection among Saudi nationals as compared with non-Saudi. Another study also showed similar results but with a much higher percentage among Saudis, which may be due to the fact that it included Saudis from all regions [29] . ere is no finding basis for comparison as such, because our study was focused on the Riyadh and Al Qassim regions only. In our study, we detected a low prevalence (0.5%). e low positive predictive value of our lab results is not related to the low sensitivity and specificity of the lab assay. e estimated analytical sensitivity and specificity of the Real Star kit from Altona was reported to be 100% with no cross reactivity with other respiratory pathogens [31] . Moreover, this low predictive value in the lab results is related to the high burden of false positive cases referred to the lab. In fact, this research is just the starting point to shed the light on more factors that might help in putting more descriptive criteria to lower the financial and human resources burden. To the best of our knowledge, no one has developed a logistic regression that focuses on demographic risk factors such as sex, age, and seasons prior to our study. However, it is worth mentioning that Ahmed et al. developed a risk prediction model that encompasses risk factors such as chest pain, leukopenia, and elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) [21] . However, further investigations are needed to confirm our findings. One of the major strengths of our study is that it is a comprehensive regional study which included all the suspected cases of MERS-CoV in the Riyadh and Al-Qassim regions. Secondly, the external validity of our study is also expected to be high, as it covers the two regions completely, meaning that the records of all suspected cases in these two main regions in Saudi Arabia were included. irdly, the quality of the data is considered to be high, given that the contagious and life-threatening nature of this disease has led to strict obedience to rules which are enforced in a timely manner, thus ensuring accurate reporting of suspected cases. In addition to this, quality assurance policies are implemented at HESN in order to maintain the highest level of validity and reliability of the data collection process. e variables available for suspected cases were limited to demographics, which limited the scope of our research, but they provided valuable information to form a basis for future studies of a broader scope. Variables such as primary/secondary infections are vital pieces of information, but due the limitation of the data available, we could not determine their effects. According to our knowledge, this is one of the few studies that have specifically investigated MERS-CoV risk factors in the Riyadh and Al-Qassim areas (two major regions in KSA). Given that all suspected and confirmed cases were included in this study, we assume that our results are generalizable for both the regions with confidence. It must be noted that the comparative group of this study is different from that of the previous ones, as we compared those with confirmed MERS-CoV with those with suspected MERS-CoV who have passed all stages of screening at the hospital, whereas other studies were hospital but not lab-based with an aim of identifying factors that help in suspecting rather than confirming cases. is might be the reason why we have found some significant demographic factors unlike other reports. In conclusion, this research is about predictors for the confirmation of diagnosis among suspected cases only, meaning that the factors we found can help in identifying suspected cases that may have a higher chance of testing positive. is will help primary healthcare professionals to develop a better screening tool for suspected cases, as currently only a small minority of suspected cases are confirmed positive via lab results, consequently resulting in a lot of resources being spent to test thousands of samples, just for the identification of a few cases. e three factors we identified are important because, for example, a female, aged 18, presenting in winter will be less likely to be diagnosed than a male, aged 45, presenting in the summer, or, to give another example, a 60-year-old male who is presenting MERS-CoV signs with a negative lab result may need retesting. Our study covered two main regions in Saudi Arabia and provides evidence that the MERS-CoV epidemic in these two regions has specific characteristics that might help future plans for prevention and management of such contagious diseases. Our results showed that only a minority of suspected cases are actually diagnosed with the disease, meaning that the procedures being implemented seemed to be highly sensitive but not highly specific. e majority of confirmed cases were male, aged 41 to 60 years, and presented to healthcare facilities in the summer. Future studies should aim to confirm such findings in other regions in Saudi Arabia, to explore potential preventable risk factors and go deeper to know the underlying factors that make male aged 41-60 more susceptible than others. e laboratory data used to support the findings of this study were provided by Riyadh Regional Laboratory under license and are not freely available. However, access to data will be considered from the corresponding author upon request. e authors declare that they have no competing interests.

What is the Case fatality rate for MERS Coronavirus?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

What were the results?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

With what have three studies correlated plasma viral RNA?

Nearly Complete Genome Sequence of an Echovirus 30 Strain from a Cluster of Aseptic Meningitis Cases in California, September 2017 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6953510/ SHA: f0c4d40e1879dd1a049298f151940ac168b5f5a7 Authors: Pan, Chao-Yang; Huynh, Thalia; Padilla, Tasha; Chen, Alice; Ng, Terry Fei Fan; Marine, Rachel L.; Castro, Christina J.; Nix, W. Allan; Wadford, Debra A. Date: 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.1128/mra.01085-19 License: cc-by Abstract: We report the nearly complete genome sequence of a human enterovirus, a strain of echovirus 30, obtained from a cerebrospinal fluid specimen from a teenaged patient with aseptic meningitis in September 2017. Text: E choviruses are members of the Enterovirus B species of the Enterovirus (EV) genus in the Picornaviridae family of nonenveloped, single-stranded, positive-sense RNA viruses. Echoviruses were named from the acronym enteric cytopathic human orphan virus at the time of their discovery in the 1950s but were later found to be associated with respiratory illness, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, and aseptic meningitis, similar to other enteroviruses (1) . According to the California Code of Regulations, meningitis cases are reportable to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) within 1 day of identification of etiology (2) . In the fall of 2017, a cluster of aseptic meningitis cases from a northern California high school were reported to the CDPH. The Viral and Rickettsial Disease Laboratory (VRDL) at the CDPH detected EV from 19 of 30 patients (63%) by real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR), as previously described (3) . We generated and analyzed partial capsid (viral protein 1 [VP1]) sequences using methods developed by Minnaar et al. (4) . Fifteen of 19 (79%) EV-positive patients were confirmed to have echovirus 30 (E-30), using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples. This cluster of E-30 meningitis cases is similar to previously reported E-30 aseptic meningitis cases (5, 6) in symptoms and epidemiology. Here, we report a nearly complete genome sequence from one of the E-30-positive CSF specimens. The CSF was processed by centrifugation, 0.45-m filtration, and nuclease treatment prior to extraction using the NucliSENS easyMAG system (bioMérieux, Durham, NC) (7). The extracted nucleic acids were then treated with DNase to yield RNA, which was subjected to random reverse transcription and PCR (7) . The next-generation sequencing (NGS) library was prepared using a Nextera XT kit and sequenced on a MiSeq platform 300-cycle paired-end run (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The NGS data were analyzed using an in-house Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) pipeline which involves the removal of host sequences using bowtie2/2.3.3.1, primer removal, low-quality (below Q20) and read length (Ͻ50 nucleotides) filtering using cutadapt 1.18, read duplication removal using a Dedup.py script, de novo assembly using SPAdes 3.7 default parameters, and BLAST search of the resultant contigs (8) . There were a total of 141,329 postprocessing FASTQ reads. The final consensus genome was inspected and annotated using Geneious v10.0.9 (9) . The contig was built from 15,712 reads, assembled to an E-30 reference genome (GenBank accession number JX976773), and deemed nearly complete by comparison to the reference, and the termini were determined as part of the protocol (7). The total GC content is 48.3% for 7,155 bases. The average read coverage was 260-fold for the E-30 genome. The genome sequence was designated E-30 USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005. Its VP1 sequence was confirmed by the CDC Picornavirus Laboratory to be nearly identical to those of E-30s identified in an aseptic meningitis outbreak that occurred in the fall of 2017 in Nevada; it also has greater than 99% nucleotide identity to the VP1 sequences of E-30 strains from the southern United States identified by the CDC in May 2017 (GenBank accession numbers MG584831 and MG584832), as measured using the online version of blastn (https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi). The genome sequence of E-30 USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005 shares less than 89% nucleotide identity (NI) and less than 98% amino acid identity (AI) with other publicly available E-30 sequences. The sequence contains the complete protein-coding region, with short sections in the untranslated regions (UTRs) missing due to a lack of read coverage (approximately 182 and 90 nucleotides of the 5= and 3= UTRs, respectively). The enterovirus polyprotein can be divided into one structural (P1-capsid) and two nonstructural (P2 and P3) regions. The polyprotein regions of the E-30 genome reported here share 96%, 88%, and 84% NI (P1, P2, and P3, respectively) with other E-30 sequences in GenBank. Data availability. The E-30 sequence of USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005 has been deposited in GenBank under the accession number MK238483. The quality-filtered FASTQ reads have been deposited in the Sequence Read Archive with the run accession number SRR10082176. The contributions of the California Department of Public Health Viral and Rickettsial Disease Laboratory were supported in part by the Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity for Infectious Diseases Cooperative Agreement number 6 NU50CK000410 from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This work was partly funded by federal appropriations to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, through the Advanced Molecular Detection Initiative line item. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

What diseases are associated with echoviruses?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

What is emphyema?

Role of S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 for the Interaction with FKBP11 in Osteoblast Cells https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776769/ Tsukamoto, Takashi; Li, Xianglan; Morita, Hiromi; Minowa, Takashi; Aizawa, Tomoyasu; Hanagata, Nobutaka; Demura, Makoto 2013-09-18 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0075831 License:cc-by Abstract: Recently, one of the interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) family proteins, IFITM3, has become an important target for the activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. In this protein, a post-translational modification by fatty acids covalently attached to cysteine, termed S-palmitoylation, plays a crucial role for the antiviral activity. IFITM3 possesses three cysteine residues for the S-palmitoylation in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain and in the cytoplasmic (CP) loop. Because these cysteines are well conserved in the mammalian IFITM family proteins, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is significant for their functions. IFITM5 is another IFITM family protein and interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form a higher-order complex in osteoblast cells, which induces the expression of immunologically relevant genes. In this study, we investigated the role played by S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in its interaction with FKBP11 in the cells, because this interaction is a key process for the gene expression. Our investigations using an established reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA), and an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP), revealed that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in addition to IFITM3. Specifically, we found that cysteine residues in the TM1 domain and in the CP loop were S-palmitoylated in IFITM5. Then, we revealed by immunoprecipitation and western blot analyses that the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was inhibited in the presence of 2BP. The mutant lacking the S-palmitoylation site in the TM1 domain lost the interaction with FKBP11. These results indicate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the interaction with FKBP11. Finally, we investigated bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP, because IFITM5 was originally identified as a bone formation factor. The experiment resulted in a morphological aberration of the bone nodule. This also indicated that the S-palmitoylation contributes to bone formation. Text: The interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) protein family (also known as the Fragilis family in mice) is a part of the dispanin family [1] and is composed of double-transmembrane α-helices connected by a cytoplasmic (CP) loop and extracellular (EC) amino-and carboxyl-terminal polypeptide sequences (Figure 1-A) . The IFITM proteins are evolutionarily conserved in vertebrates [2] . Recent genomic research has revealed that there are 5 IFITM members in humans (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5 and 10) and 7 members in mice (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 10). These proteins play roles in diverse biological processes, such as germ cell maturation during gastrulation (IFITM1-3) [3] [4] [5] , cell-to-cell adhesion (IFITM1) [6] [7] [8] , antiviral activity (IFITM1-3) [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] , and bone formation (IFITM5) [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] , although the detailed functions of IFITM6, 7, and 10 are unknown at present. In particular, IFITM3 has been a target of intensive studies on its activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and internalization [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] . In 2010, Dr. Yount and co-workers reported that the antiviral activity of IFITM3 is dependent on S-palmitoylation on the protein [10] . The S-palmitoylation [23] is a post-translational modification on proteins by C 16 saturated-fatty acids (palmitic acids) covalently attached to certain cysteine residues via a thioester linkage (Figure 1-B) . The modification is reversibly catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, and confers unique properties to the protein, such as membrane binding and targeting, immunoreactivity, Amino-acid sequence alignment of IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 derived from mice. The conserved residues are highlighted in black. The three conserved cysteines are highlighted in red and numbered based on the sequence of IFITM5 (top) and IFITM3 (bottom). The residues unique in IFITM5 are highlighted in gray. The first and the second transmembrane domains, the extracellular sequences, and the cytoplasmic loop are indicated by arrows and denoted as TM1 and TM2, EC, and the CP loop, respectively. The TM domains were predicted by SOSUI. The aspartates at the C-terminal region in IFITM5 are shown in blue. B) The schematic illustration of the protein S-palmitoylation. The C 16 -palmitic acid is attached to cysteine via a thioester linkage. The palmitoylation and depalmitoylation are catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, respectively. In this study, hydroxylamine, NH 2 OH, was used to reduce the thioester linkage. C) The amino acid sequence identity (similarity) among IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 is summarized. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g001 and protein-protein interaction. The authors revealed that IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated on three membrane proximal cysteines, Cys71 and Cys72 in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain, and Cys105 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) [10] . In addition, IFITM3 lacking the S-palmitoylation is not clustered in the cell membrane and significantly diminishes the antiviral activity. Moreover, the cysteines in IFITM2, Cys70, Cys71, and Cys104 are also palmitoylated in the same manner, which affects the intracellular localization [24] . A resent study has revealed that murine IFITM1 has four cysteine residues (Cys49, Cys50, Cys83, and Cys103) for the S-palmitoylation, which is required for the antiviral activity and the protein stability [25] . The other IFITM family members also possess these cysteines (Figure 1-A) , and thus the role of the Spalmitoylation on the cysteines should be significant for the functions of IFITM proteins. Here, we focused on IFITM5, which is also known as bonerestricted IFITM-like (BRIL) protein [18] . Among the IFITM family proteins, IFITM5 is unique. (i) Expression of IFITM5: Unlike the other IFITM family proteins, the expression of IFITM5 is not induced by interferons because the region upstream of the ifitm5 gene lacks the interferon regulatory elements [26] . Furthermore, the expression of IFITM5 is mostly restricted to osteoblast cells [18, 19, 27] , while the other IFITM proteins are expressed ubiquitously (ii). Amino-acid sequence similarity: The amino acid sequence of IFITM5 is relatively dissimilar to IFITM1-3 proteins (~ 65% similarity), while IFITM1-3 proteins share ~ 85% similarity with each other (Figure 1 -C). In addition, IFITM5 has an aspartate-rich domain in the C-terminal region, which could be involved in calcium binding (Figure 1 -A) [26] . (iii) Role of IFITM5 in bone formation: The expression of IFITM5 is associated with mineralization during the bone formation process in osteoblast cells [18] [19] [20] [21] . Previous studies have confirmed the expression of IFITM5 in bone tissues in mice, rats, humans and tammar wallabies [2] . The ifitm5-gene knockout mice have smaller bones [19] . Moreover, the knockdown of the ifitm5 gene by small hairpin RNA induces a decrease in bone nodule formation, whereas overexpression of the gene in UMR106 cells has been shown to increase calcium uptake and bone nodule formation [18] . (iv) Role of IFITM5 for immune activity: Recent studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-the prostaglandin F2 receptor negative regulator (FPRP) complex [28] . When the complex is formed, the expressions of 5 interferon-induced genes are induced, including bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (Bst2), interferon inducible protein 1 (Irgm), interferoninduced protein with tetratricopeptide repeats 3 (Ifit3), b(2)microglobulin (B2m), and MHC class I antigen gene. Consequently, these results indicate that IFITM5 is involved not only in the bone formation but also in the immune system activity. In this study, we investigated the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11 in mouse osteoblast cells. Cells transfected by a plasmid DNA encoding mouse IFITM5 were grown in the presence of an established chemical reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA) [29, 30] , or an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP) [31] . The biochemical assays using these compounds revealed that the wild-type IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated. To identify the Spalmitoylation site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/C53A, and -C52A/53A/86A (Cys-less). The chemical reporter assay suggested that at least two out of three cysteines in IFITM5 are S-palmitoylated. The interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was examined by immunoprecipitation assay, resulting in the loss of the interaction in the presence of 2BP. The same result was obtained in the two mutants, C52A/C53A and Cys-less. These results suggested that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of IFITM5 is necessary for the interaction with FKBP11. On the other hand, Cys86 in the CP loop of IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated but not involved in the interaction. Because this interaction is important for the immunologically relevant gene expression, it was indicated that the role of the S-palmitoylation is to promote the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and to regulate the immune activity in the osteoblast cells. The possible interaction mechanism and the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the bone nodule formation will be discussed. For mammalian cell expression, plasmid vectors of wild-type IFITM5 (IFITM5-WT) and FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into a pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector (Takara Bio, Shiga, Japan). The details of the recombinant DNA constructs were the same as described previously [19] . The genes of IFITM5 mutants (IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/53A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less)) were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit (Stratagene, La Jolla, CA). The plasmid vectors of FLAG-fused IFITM5-WT, -C52A/53A, and Cys-less were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into the pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector. For E. coli cell expression, the plasmid vector of IFITM5-WT was constructed by inserting the cloned gene into a pET22b (Novagen, Madison, WI) expression vector. The forward primer 5'-GGAATTCCATATGGACACTTCATATCCCCGTG-3' and the reverse primer 5'-CCGCTCGAGGTTATAGTCCTCCTCATCAAACTTGG-3' were used to amplify the gene encoding the entire IFITM5 from the plasmid vector for mammalian cell expression described above. The underlined letters denote an NdeI and an XhoI cleavage site, respectively. The plasmids of IFITM5 mutants were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit. The sense and anti-sense primers used were 5'-GGCAGTATGGCTCCAAAGCCAAGGCGTACAACATCCTGG CTGC-3' and 5'-GCAGCCAGGATGTTGTACGCCTTGGCTTTGGAGCCATACT GCC-3' for IFITM5-C86A; and 5'-GCACGATGTACCTGAATCTGGCGGCGCTTGGATTCCTGG CGC-3' and 5'-GCGCCAGGAATCCAAGCGCCGCCAGATTCAGGTACATCG TGC-3' for IFITM5-C52A/C53A, respectively (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO). Osteoblast-like MC3T3 cells were provided by the RIKEN, Cell Bank (RCB 1126). The procedures for cell culture, transfection, and protein expression were the same as reported previously. When necessary, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP; Wako, Osaka, Japan) and 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA; Sigma-Aldrich) were dissolved in 99.5% dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO; Wako) and added to differentiation medium at concentrations of 100 μM and 50 μM in less than 0.1% DMSO, respectively [30, 31] . Wild-type and mutant IFITM5 proteins were also produced using an E. coli recombinant expression system. E. coli BL21(DE3) cells transformed by the expression plasmid were grown at 37°C in LB medium containing 50 μg/mL ampicillin. After four-hour induction by 1 mM isopropyl β-Dthiogalactopyranoside (IPTG), cells were harvested by centrifugation (6,400 × g for 10 min at 4°C). The cells were suspended in 50 mM Tris-HCl buffer (pH 8) and disrupted by a French press (Ohtake, Tokyo, Japan) (100 MPa × 4 times). The crude membrane fraction was collected by ultracentrifugation (178,000 × g for 90 min at 4°C). The collected fraction was solubilized with 1.5% n-dodecyl-β-Dmaltopyranoside (DDM) (Dojindo Lab, Kumamoto, Japan) in 50 mM Tris-HCl, pH 8, containing 0.3 M NaCl and 5 mM imidazole. After the ultracentrifugation, the supernatant was incubated with Ni 2+ -NTA agarose resin (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The resin was applied to a chromatography column and washed with 50 mM imidazole containing 50 mM Tris-HCl (pH 8), 0.3 M NaCl and 0.1% DDM. The DDM-solubilized IFITM5 was collected by elution with the same buffer containing 0.3 M imidazole. The sample media were replaced by the appropriate buffer solution by two passages over a PD-10 column (GE Healthcare UK, Ltd., Amersham Place, England). The experimental details are described in previous reports [19, 28] . Briefly, total proteins were extracted from the osteoblast cells which co-expressed IFITM5 and FKBP11-FLAG using a total protein extraction kit (BioChain Institute Inc., Newark, CA). Then, the cell lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel (Sigma-Aldrich) at 4°C for 2 h. To recover FKBP11-FLAG, 500 ng/μL 3 × FLAG peptide (Sigma-Aldrich) dissolved in Tris-buffered saline was added to the collected gel at 4°C for 1 h. The recovered proteins and the cell lysate containing total proteins were analyzed by SDS-PAGE (15% ePAGEL; ATTO, Tokyo, Japan) and western blot. The anti-IFITM5 polyclonal antibody, which was prepared from the amino-terminal peptide sequence (TSYPREDPRAPSSRC), and anti-FLAG monoclonal antibody (Sigma-Aldrich) were used as primary antibodies. The HRP-conjugated goat anti-rabbit IgG (H+L) (Zymed Laboratories, San Francisco, CA) and goat anti-mouse IgG (H+L) (Sigma-Aldrich) antibodies were used as secondary antibodies for the anti-IFITM5 and anti-FLAG primary antibodies, respectively. The proteins were detected by chemiluminescent reaction (MercK-Millipore, Billerica, MA). The cell lysate extracted from the osteoblast cells metabolically labeled by 17-ODYA was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel to obtain purified FLAG-fused IFITM5 proteins. The 17-ODYA-labeled proteins were chemically labeled with azide-PEG 3 -5(6)-carboxytetramethylrhodamine (TAMRA-azide; Click Chemistry Tools, Scottsdale, AZ) with reference to previous studies [10, 29, 30, 32] and the manufacturer's guide. The proteins separated by SDS-PAGE were visualized using a 532-nm laser for excitation and the fluorescence by TAMRA (565 nm) was detected using a 575nm long-path filter (Typhoon FLA 9000; GE Healthcare). The subcultured osteoblast MC3T3 cells were seeded at a density of 5,000 cells/cm 2 in 40 mm dishes and cultured in α-Modified Eagle's Medium (α-MEM; Sigma-Aldrich) containing 10% (v/v) fetal bovine serum (FBS; Nichirei Biosciences Inc., Tokyo, Japan). On the next day, this was replaced with differentiation medium, containing 2 mM glycerophosphate and 50 μg/mL sodium ascorbate at final concentrations, to induce osteoblast differentiation. When necessary, 100 μM 2BP in less than 0.1% DMSO, or 0.1% DMSO alone was added to the differentiation medium at final concentrations. All cultures were incubated at 37°C in a humidified atmosphere containing 5% CO 2 for 27 days. Mineralized nodules were stained with Alizarin Red S (Sigma-Aldrich). The standard staining procedure was used. The mineralized nodules were checked every three days. To identify the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5, the osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid DNA encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the absence and presence of 2BP, which inhibits the S-palmitoylation (Figure 2-A) [31] . Then, the cell lysate containing total protein was extracted for use in the SDS-PAGE and western blot analyses. For purposes of comparison, E. coli cells were also cultured in the absence of 2BP and the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 2 -B shows the results of the western blot assay for IFITM5-WT expressed in the osteoblast and the E. coli cells. In the osteoblast cells, IFITM5-WT exhibited a single band near the 17.4 kDa molecular-mass marker (see lane 1) in the absence of 2BP. However, in the presence of 2BP (see lane 4), the band appeared at a lower position than that in the absence of 2BP (lane 1). These results suggested that IFITM5-WT has high and low molecular-mass forms in the absence and presence of 2BP, respectively. The S-palmitoylation is a reversible reaction, and therefore is depalmitoylated by a strong reductant such as hydroxylamine [10] . Following hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 2), the band appeared at the same position as in the presence of 2BP (lane 4). In prokaryote E. coli cells, the post-translational modification S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org does not occur. Hence, the band was also observed at the same lower position (see lane 3). In the case of IFITM3, the palmitoylation was also reported to induce a change in mobility on electrophoresis, just as in our present results [10] . For direct observation of the S-palmitoylation, an established chemical reporter, 17-ODYA (Figure 2-C) , was used. The osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the presence of 17-ODYA to label the protein metabolically. Following the extraction and the purification of the cell lysate, the labeled IFITM5-WT was ligated with TAMRA-azide according to the Cu(I)-catalyzed [3+2] azidealkyne cycloaddition method [10, 29, 30, 32 ]. An in-gel fluorescence image of the 17-ODYA-TAMRA-labeled IFITM5-WT (see lane 2 in Figure 2 -D) showed that IFITM5 was Spalmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. The FLAG-tag attached to IFITM5 has no influence on the modification and chemical labeling (lanes 1 and 5). In addition, after the hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 6), the fluorescence became weak because of the dissociation of 17-ODYA from IFITM5, which was the same mechanism as the dissociation of the palmitic acid from IFITM5 by reduction as described above (lane 2 of Figure 2-B) . Therefore, we concluded that the IFITM5 expressed in the native osteoblast cells is S-palmitoylated. In addition, the bands corresponding to the high and the low molecular-mass forms shown in western blot analysis were tentatively assigned to the S-palmitoylated and the depalmitoylated forms, respectively. As described above in the Introduction, cysteine residues are the substrate for S-palmitoylation. IFITM5 possesses three cysteines, Cys52 and Cys53 in the TM1 domain, and Cys86 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) . All of these cysteines are highly conserved among the mammalian IFITM family proteins (Figure 3-A) . To identify the modification site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C52A/C53A, -C86A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less). The osteoblast cells harboring each plasmid were cultured in the absence of 2BP, and then the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 3 -B shows the results of the western blot detecting the expression of all the mutants in the osteoblast cells. In the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see lanes 2 and 4), the low molecular-mass form was detected. This result indicates that either Cys52 or Cys53 is involved in the S-palmitoylation. In addition, as shown in Figure 2 -D, strong and weak fluorescence were detected in the C52A/ C53A mutant in the absence and presence of hydroxylamine (lanes 3 and 7) , respectively, but not in the Cys-less mutant (lanes 4 and 8) . These results suggested that the rest of the cysteine in the C52A/C53A mutant, Cys86, is S-palmitoylated and the Cys-less mutant completely lost the S-palmitoylation because all the cysteines were substituted. Therefore, we concluded that Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated. In addition, it was found that the S-palmitoylation on the TM1 domain has a major effect on the mobility in the gel (lower panel of Figure 2 -D and Figure 3-B) . Therefore, we hereafter refer to the high and low molecular-mass forms as the TM1palmitoylated and the TM1-depalmitoylated forms, respectively. Finally, we reassigned the bands shown in the western blot analysis as follows: IFITM5-WT is fully palmitoylated, the C86A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys52 and/or Cys53, the C52A/C53A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys86, and the Cys-less mutant is completely depalmitoylated. Previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with FKBP11 [19] . FKBP11 belongs to the FK506-binding protein family and has a transmembrane domain. The interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 is important for the immune activity because formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex induces the expression of interferon-induced genesnamely, the Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and MHC class I antigen gene [28] . To investigate the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11, we carried out an immunoprecipitation assay. The osteoblast cells co-transfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5-WT and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured in the absence and the presence of 2BP. Then, the extracted cell-lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG agarose gel. The gel was washed several times. Finally, the proteins were competitively eluted by the addition of FLAG peptide. If IFITM5 interacted with FKBP11, it was expected that IFITM5 The conserved cysteines are highlighted in orange and numbered. In the lower panel, the numbers given in parenthesis correspond to the residual number for IFITM2. For the calculation of probability, a total of 23 IFITM2, 23 IFITM3, and 17 IFITM5 sequences derived from mammalian species in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database were used. Sequence alignment was carried out using CLUSTALW. Sequence logos were generated using WEBLOGO 3. B) Western blot for the wild-type and cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 expressed in the osteoblast cells. For detection, the anti-IFITM5 antibody was used as a primary antibody. The upper arrow indicates that C52 and/or C53 in the TM1 domain is Spalmitoylated (lanes 1 and 3) . The C52A/C53A (lane 2) and Cys-less (lane 4) mutants are partially and completely depalmitoylated. The experiment was carried out 2 times. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g003 would be obtained during this step and detected by immunoblotting. Figure 4 -A shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of IFITM5-WT with FKBP-FLAG. The band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panel). Lanes 1 and 2 are controls to ensure that IFITM5 and FKBP11 are both contained in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The controls also ensured that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in the absence of 2BP (see lane 1), whereas IFITM5 was not S-palmitoylated in the presence of 2BP (see lane 2). After the immunoprecipitation, a single band corresponding to the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 appeared in the absence of 2BP (see lane 3), indicating the interaction of the Spalmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11. However, in the presence of 2BP, no band corresponding to IFITM5 appeared (see lane 4) , indicating that the two molecules do not interact with each other. These results suggest that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the interaction with FKBP11. Next, we further investigated the relationship between the Spalmitoylation and the interaction with FKBP11 by using the IFITM5 mutants described above. The osteoblast cells cotransfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5 mutants (C52A/ C53A, C86A, and Cys-less) and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured. The immunoprecipitation assay was carried out in the same way as described above. Figure 4 -B shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the IFITM5 mutants with FKBP11. Figure 4 -C shows the results of the control experiment using the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. As described in the previous section 3-3, the band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panels) because the immunoprecipitation was carried out using the anti-FLAG agarose gel. In the lower panel of Figure 4 -B, single bands were observed for the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutant (lanes 1 and 3) but not for the -C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (lanes 2 and 4) . This result indicates that the wild-type and the C86A mutant interact with FKBP11, whereas the other two mutants do not. Interestingly, this tendency mirrored the trend for the S-palmitoylation profiles, which means that Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutants is S-palmitoylated, whereas these residues are not S-palmitoylated in the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see Figures 2-D, 3 -B and the lower panel of Figure 4 -C). Because the S-palmitoylation contributes to the IFITM5-FKBP11 interaction, as described in the previous section 3-3 (also in Figure 4-A) , the results of Figure 4 -B suggest that the mutants which lost the S-palmitoylation site(s), Cys52 and/or Cys53, are not able to interact with FKBP11. In other words, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is necessary for the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. As described above in the Introduction, previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 also contributes to bone formation [18] [19] [20] [21] . Therefore, we investigated the influence of Spalmitoylation on the bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells, in which native IFITM5 is expressed. Figure 5 shows the time-dependent nodule formation in the absence and the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-A and -B) . Figure 5 -C shows the results of the control trial to verify the effect of DMSO, which was used as the solvent for 2BP, on the nodule formation. The mineralized nodule was stained with Alizarin Red, which reacts with deposited calcium. In Figure 5 -D, the area of the mineralized nodule was plotted against experimental time. In the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-A, -C, and -D) , the mineralization was started 15 days after the initiation of the cell differentiation (Day 0). On the other hand, in the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-B and -D) , the nodule was formed on Day 12. The halftime for the maximum mineralization in the presence of 2BP was estimated to be 7 days earlier than that in the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-D) . In addition, differences in the form of the mineralized nodules were observed. Figure 5 -E shows an enlarged view of each nodule on Day 21. The stained nodules were diffused in the presence of 2BP (panel b), whereas in the absence of 2BP the nodules formed a large cluster (panels a and c). Therefore, our observations in this study suggested that the S-palmitoylation affects the bone nodule formation in the osteoblast cells. In this study, we confirmed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 in the osteoblast cells, which was the same as that previously reported for IFITM3 and IFITM2. As reported previously, in IFITM3 and IFITM2, which share 85% sequence similarity (Figure 1-C) , two cysteines in the TM1 domain (Cys71 and Cys72 for IFITM3, Cys70 and Cys71 for IFITM2) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys105 for IFITM3, Cys104 for IFITM2) are all S-palmitoylated in cells [10, 24] . On the other hand, although IFITM5 shares 68% and 66% sequence similarity to IFITM3 and IFITM2, respectively, more than one cysteine in the TM1 domain (Cys52 or Cys53) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys86) are S-palmitoylated. Taking into account the high conservation of three cysteines in the IFITM proteins (Figures 1-A and 3-A) , all the cysteines in IFITM5 may be involved in the S-palmitoylation just as in the case of IFITM3 and IFITM2 [10, 24] . The roles of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM3 have been studied intensively, and the S-palmitoylation has been shown to be crucial for the correct positioning in the membrane and the resistance to viral infection and internalization [10] (the roles are summarized in Figure 6 -A and discussed in detail below). A recent study has revealed that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM2 is also important for the protein clustering in the membrane [24] . However, we do not know the role of the Spalmitoylation of IFITM5 for the clustering in the membrane at present because we have not yet succeeded in obtaining a proper antibody for immunohistochemistry, despite our allocating much time to the search and considering a considerable number of antibodies. Dr. Hanagata and co-workers previously reported that IFITM5 lacking the TM1 domain and the CP loop, which and IFITM5 (lower panels), the anti-FLAG and the anti-IFITM5 antibodies were used as primary antibodies, respectively. Arrows indicate the existence of each protein and the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5. A) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type IFITM5 with the FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) in the osteoblast cells in the absence and the presence of 2BP (denoted as "-" and "+", respectively). Lanes 1 and 2 are the results for the control trials used to verify the existence of IFITM5 and FKBP11 before the immunoprecipitation, and Lanes 3 and 4 show the results after the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 3 times. B) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 with FKBP11-FLAG in the osteoblast cells. The band corresponding to FLAG peptide is not shown because of the smaller molecular-mass of FLAG peptide relative to FKBP11-FLAG. C) The control experiment of Figure 4 -B used to verify that IFITM5 and FKBP11 were both present in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 2 times. A) The functional mechanism of IFITM3 is summarized from previous studies. (i) IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated at Cys71, Cys72, and Cys105, (ii) which induces clustering and correct positioning in the membrane, (iii) resulting in the antiviral activity against influenza virus. B) The functional mechanism of IFITM5 is summarized by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation allows IFITM5 to interact with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells (iii). The dissociation of CD9 from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex is induced by formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex and leads to the immunologically relevant gene expression. IFITM5 also contributes to the bone formation, but it is unknown which states as described in (i)-(iii) are important for the bone formation at present.At present, no interactive protein has been identified in IFITM3 and IFITM2. On the other hand, IFITM5 interacts with the partner protein, FKBP11, and the S-palmitoylation clearly makes a significant contribution to the interaction. Therefore, IFITM5 forms a hetero-oligomer in the cell membrane for its physiological function. contain the relevant modification sites, lost the ability to interact with FKBP11 [19] . In the present study, we determined that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain is necessary for the interaction. From these results, we speculate that Cys52 and Cys53 face toward the interaction surface with FKBP11, and therefore IFITM5 and FKBP11 interact with each other through the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) (summarized in Figure 6 -B, discussed in detail later). Our investigation revealed that Cys86 is involved in the Spalmitoylation but does not contribute to the interaction with FKBP11. We speculate that some other residues in the CP loop located near the TM1 domain make some contribution to the interaction. Previous investigations also revealed that IFITM5 expressed in the heterologous fibroblast NIH3T3 cells exhibited direct interactions with CD81, the B cell receptor-associated protein 31 (BCAP31), and the hydroxysteroid (17-beta) dehydrogenase 7 (HSD17b7). These three proteins bind to the IFITM5 without the S-palmitoylation (low molecular-mass form; see Figure 3 -b in ref [19] . and Figure 1 -B in ref [28] .). In the fibroblast cells, the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is insufficient [19] . These interactions are not observed in the native osteoblast cells, and therefore are nonspecific. Taking these facts into consideration, we speculate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the specific interaction with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells. The role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in immune activity of the osteoblast cells will be discussed by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. A specific interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 should be necessary to form the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. CD81, also known as TAPA-1, is a member of the tetraspanin membrane protein family and a component of the B-cell coreceptor complex which mediates the B-cell signaling for immune responses. When forming this complex, CD9, a partner protein with CD81, dissociates from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex and consequently induces the osteoblastspecific expression of the interferon-induced genes, Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and the MHC class I antigen gene [28] . If the Spalmitoylation-mediated specific interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 were lost, the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex would not be formed, and consequently the interferon-induced gene expression would be inhibited because CD9 would remain associated with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex. In this respect, we speculate that IFITM5 is involved in the immune system activity in the osteoblast cells and the interaction of the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11 regulates the immune activity. In addition, it was suggested that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the bone nodule formation, including morphology and time for mineralization, in the osteoblast cells ( Figure 5 ). It is difficult to conclude at present that the lack of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 causes the diffusion of the bone nodules (panel b of Figure 5 -E); we can say, however, that IFITM5 will probably not be S-palmitoylated in the cells in the presence of 2BP. While 2BP is commonly used as an inhibitor of palmitoylation, it also targets many metabolic enzymes [33, 34] . Thus, it is also difficult to interpret the results of the long-term incubation of the osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP. In any case, these are interesting and key observations in terms of clarifying the role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in bone formation, and further studies are required. Figure 6 describes a possible mechanism of the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and the role of IFITM5 in the osteoblast cell function by means of a comparison with IFITM3. In the case of IFITM3, as shown in Figure 6 -A, the following are observed. (i) The three cysteines are all S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation leads to the clustering and the correct positioning of IFITM3 molecules in the membrane (iii). The Spalmitoylation and the following clustering are crucial for the resistance to the influenza virus. When IFITM3 lacks the Spalmitoylation, the IFITM3 molecules do not cluster, which leads to the significant decrease in the antiviral activity. On the other hand, Figure 6 -B shows that the following observations are made in the case of IFITM5. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylated IFITM5 is able to interact specifically with FKBP11. The interaction is presumed to be mediated by the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) facing toward the interaction surface on FKBP11. Cys86 is involved in the S-palmitoylation but not in the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. At present, however, little is known about the role of the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 for the localization in the membrane. When the S-palmitoylation affects the localization of IFITM5 as in the case of IFITM3 [10] , the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 molecules should be localized in the membrane or the depalmitoylated molecules should be delocalized. The loss of the interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 could be due to a relocalization of the depalmitoylated IFITM5 that prevents its association with FKBP11 (iii). The Spalmitoylated IFITM5 interacts with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex through FKBP11, which induces the dissociation of CD9 from the complex and the expression of 5 immunologically relevant genes. Finally, IFITM5 forms the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. It is unknown at present which of the three states (i)~(iii) illustrated in Figure 6 -B is important for the bone mineralization of the osteoblast cells. The lack of the S-palmitoylation influences the interaction with FKBP11, which could account for the following complex formation and gene expression. In addition, the bone nodule formation is also affected. Note that the role of the Spalmitoylation has been involved in the bone formation [35] . It is indicated that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 plays roles not only for the regulation of the immune activity but also for the bone formation. In conclusion, we have revealed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11. Not only the immune activity but also the bone mineralization in the osteoblast cells is affected by the S-palmitoylation. In general, the functional role of the S-palmitoylation is different for each protein [36] . For many proteins, the palmitoylation and depalmitoylation cycle is constitutive and regulated by enzymes. Based on the present results, it is difficult to address (i) whether the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is constitutive or regulated, or (ii) when and where IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. Further studies are required and are currently underway.

What amino acid might be involved in calcium binding in the C-terminal region of a protein?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What was the result of the rAd5-HA testing?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

What were the differences in immune responses?

Estimating the Unreported Number of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Cases in China in the First Half of January 2020: A Data-Driven Modelling Analysis of the Early Outbreak https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020388 SHA: bf20dda99538a594eafc258553634fd9195104cb Authors: Zhao, Shi; Musa, Salihu S.; Lin, Qianying; Ran, Jinjun; Yang, Guangpu; Wang, Weiming; Lou, Yijun; Yang, Lin; Gao, Daozhou; He, Daihai; Wang, Maggie H. Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9020388 License: cc-by Abstract: Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan, China and has swiftly spread to other parts of China and a number of foreign countries. The 2019-nCoV cases might have been under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020, and thus we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases, in mainland China from 1 December 2019 to 24 January 2020 through the exponential growth. The number of unreported cases was determined by the maximum likelihood estimation. We used the serial intervals (SI) of infection caused by two other well-known coronaviruses (CoV), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) CoVs, as approximations of the unknown SI for 2019-nCoV to estimate R0. Results: We confirmed that the initial growth phase followed an exponential growth pattern. The under-reporting was likely to have resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403&minus;540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18&minus;25) in comparison to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. We estimated the R0 of 2019-nCoV at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49&minus;2.63). Conclusion: The under-reporting was likely to have occurred during the first half of January 2020 and should be considered in future investigation. Text: A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infected pneumonia infection, which is deadly [1] , was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 [2] . The virus causes a range of symptoms including fever, cough, and shortness of breath [3] . The cumulative number of reported cases slowly increased to cumulative 41 cases by 1 January 2020, and rapidly increased after 16 January 2020. As of 26 January 2020, the still ongoing outbreak had resulted in 2066 (618 of them are in Wuhan) confirmed cases and 56 (45 of them were in Wuhan) deaths in mainland China [4] , and sporadic cases exported from Wuhan were reported in Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia, and the United States, please see the World Health Organization (WHO) news release via https://www.who.int/csr/don/en/ from 14 to 21 January 2020. Using the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other countries, a research group at Imperial College London estimated that there had been 4000 (95%CI: 1000-9700) cases in Wuhan with symptoms onset by 18 January 2020, and the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was estimated at 2.6 (95%CI: 1.5-3.5) [5] . Leung et al. drew a similar conclusion and estimated the number of cases exported from Wuhan to other major cities in China [6] , and the potentials of travel related risks of disease spreading was also indicated by [7] . Due to an unknown reason, the cumulative number of cases remained at 41 from 1 to 15 January 2020 according to the official report, i.e., no new case was reported during these 15 days, which appears inconsistent with the following rapid growth of the epidemic curve since 16 January 2020. We suspect that the 2019-nCoV cases were under-reported roughly from 1 to 15 January 2020. In this study, we estimated the number of unreported cases and the basic reproduction number, R 0 , of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan from 1 to 15 January 2020 based on the limited data in the early outbreak. The time series data of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China were initially released by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission from 10 to 20 January 2020 [8] , and later by the National Health Commission of China after 21 January 2020 [9] . The case time series data in December 2019 were obtained from a published study [3] . All cases were laboratory confirmed following the case definition by the national health commission of China [10] . We chose the data up to 24 January 2020 instead of to the present study completion date. Given the lag between timings of case confirmation and news release of new cases, the data of the most recent few days were most likely to be tentative, and thus they were excluded from the analysis to be consistent. We suspected that there was a number of cases, denoted by ξ, under-reported from 1 to 15 January 2020. The cumulative total number of cases, denoted by C i , of the i-th day since 1 December 2019 is the summation of the cumulative reported, c i , and cumulative unreported cases, Ξ i . We have C i = c i + Ξ i , where c i is observed from the data, and Ξ i is 0 for i before 1 January and ξ for i after 15 January 2020. Following previous studies [11, 12] , we modelled the epidemic curve, i.e., the C i series, as an exponential growing Poisson process. Since the data from 1 to 15 January 2020 appeared constant due to unclear reason(s), we removed these data from the fitting of exponential growth. The ξ and the intrinsic growth rate (γ) of the exponential growth were to be estimated based on the log-likelihood, denoted by , from the Poisson priors. The 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of ξ was estimated by the profile likelihood estimation framework with cutoff threshold determined by a Chi-square quantile [13] , χ 2 pr = 0.95, df = 1 . With γ estimated, the basic reproduction number could be obtained by R 0 = 1/M(−γ) with 100% susceptibility for 2019-nCoV presumed at this early stage. Here, the function M(·) was the Laplace transform, i.e., the moment generating function, of the probability distribution for the serial interval (SI) of the disease [11, 14] , denoted by h(k) and k is the mean SI. Since the transmission chain of 2019-nCoV remained unclear, we adopted the SI information from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which share the similar pathogen as 2019-nCoV [15] [16] [17] . We modelled h(k) as Gamma distributions with mean of 8.0 days and standard deviation (SD) of 3.6 days by averaging the SI mean and SD of SARS, mean of 7.6 days and SD of 3.4 days [18] , and MERS, mean of 8.4 days and SD of 3.8 days [19] . We were also interested in inferring the patterns of the daily number of cases, denoted by ε i for the i-th day, and thus it is obviously that C i = C i−1 + ε i . A simulation framework was developed for the iterative Poisson process such that E[ denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 (95% CI: 403-540), see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R 0 was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63), see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 [5, [20] [21] [22] . With the R 0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases (C i ) remarkably well, see Figure 1c iterative Poisson process such that denoted the expectation. The simulation was implemented starting from 1 January 2020 with a cumulative number of cases seed of 40, the same as reported on 31 December 2019. We conducted 1000 samples and calculated the median and 95% CI. The number of 2019-nCoV unreported cases was estimated at 469 (95% CI: 403−540), see Figure 1a , which was significantly larger than 0. This finding implied the occurrence of under-reporting between 1 and 15 January 2020. After accounting for the effect of under-reporting, the R0 was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49−2.63), see Figure 1b , which is consistent with many existing online preprints with range from 2 to 4 [5, [20] [21] [22] . With the R0 of 2.56 and ξ of 469, the exponential growing framework fitted the cumulative total number of cases (Ci) remarkably well, see Figure 1c , referring to McFadden's pseudo-R-squared of 0.99. show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases (Ci) and the daily number of cases (εi) respectively. In panels (c) and (d), the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel (c), the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel (d), the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up [23] , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an panels (a,b) , the green shading area represents the 95% CI (on the horizontal axis), and the vertical green line represents the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the number of unreported cases. With the MLE of R 0 at 2.56, panels (c,d) show the exponential growth fitting results of the cumulative number of cases (C i ) and the daily number of cases (ε i ) respectively. In panels (c,d), the gold squares are the reported cases, the blue bold curve represents the median of the fitting results, the dashed blue curves are the 95% CI of the fitting results, and the purple shading area represents the time window from 1 to 15 January 2020. In panel (c), the blue dots are the cumulative total, i.e., reported and unreported, number of cases. In panel (d), the grey curves are the 1000 simulation samples. Our estimation of R 0 rely on the SI of 2019-nCoV, which remains unknown as of 26 January 2020. In this work, we employed the SIs of SARS and MERS as approximations to that of 2019-nCoV. The determination of SI requires the knowledge of the chain of disease transmission that needs a sufficient number of patient samples and periods of time for follow-up [23] , and thus this is unlikely to be achieved shortly. However, using SIs of SARS and MERS as approximation could provide an insight into the transmission potential of 2019-nCoV at the early outbreak. We note that slightly varying the mean and SD of SI would not affect our main conclusions. The R 0 of 2019-nCoV was estimated at 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63), and it is generally in line with those of SARS, i.e., 2-5 [19, 24, 25] , and MERS, i.e., 2.7-3.9 [26] . For the simulated daily number of cases (ε i ), see Figure 1d , we found that ε i matched the observed daily number after 17 January 2020, but was significantly larger than the observations from 1 to 17 January 2020. This finding implied that under-reporting was likely to have occurred in the first half of January 2020. We estimated that the reporting rate after 17 January 2020 increased 21-fold (95% CI: [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] compared to the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average. One of the possible reasons was that the official diagnostic protocol was released by WHO on 17 January 2020 [27] , and the diagnosis and reporting efforts of 2019-nCoV infections probably increased. Thereafter, the daily number of newly reported cases started increasing rapidly after 17 January 2020, see Figure 1d . We conducted additional sensitivity analysis by varying the starting date of the under-reporting time window, e.g., 1 January 2020 in the main results, from 2 December 2019 to 3 January 2020, and we report our estimates largely hold. The exact value of the reporting rate was difficult to determine due to lack of serological surveillance data. The reporting rate can be determined if serological surveillance data are available for a population; we would know who was infected (seropositive) and who was not (seronegative), with high confidence. The reporting rate is the ratio of reported cases over the number of seropositive individuals. It was statistically evident that increasing in reporting was likely, and thus it should be considered in the future investigation of this outbreak. Previous preprint suggested cumulative cases of 1723 (95% CI: 427-4471) as of 12 January 2020, and 4000 (95% CI: 1000-9700) as of 18 January 2020 based on the aggregated international export cases [5] . Our analysis yielded cumulative cases of 280 (95% CI: 128-613) as of 12 January 2020, and 609 (95% CI: 278-1333) as of 18 January 2020 based on the exponential growing mechanistic in the early outbreak. Although our estimate case number appeared to have a lower mean than those estimated by Imai et al. [5] , they are not statistically different. This study applied a different screening effort to detect the 2019-nCoV cases from that in Imai et al. [5] . Imai et al. assumed the average screening effort at overseas airports that covered travelers arriving from Wuhan. Whereas we assumed a constant screening effort applied in Wuhan at the same point of time, and then a number of cases (i.e., ξ) should have been reported yet failed to be reported in the first half of January 2020 due to all sorts of reasons. It is not surprising that different assumptions yielded different results, and this difference in screening effort also partly explained why the detected cases out of China mainly presented mild symptoms. Thus, it was reasonable that our estimates appeared lower than those estimated by Imai et al. [5] . It must be emphasized that such a gap in the knowledge would be resolved by serological survey study (for a large population to approximate the actual positive rate) or an explicit estimation of the actual reporting rate. Under-reporting was likely to have occurred and resulted in 469 (95% CI: 403-540) unreported cases from 1 to 15 January 2020. The reporting rate after 17 January 2020 was likely to have increased 21-fold (95% CI: 18-25) compared with the situation from 1 to 17 January 2020 on average, and it should be considered in future investigation. We estimated the R 0 at 2019-nCoV to be 2.56 (95% CI: 2.49-2.63). Author Contributions: All authors conceived the study, carried out the analysis, discussed the results, drafted the first manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

As of 26 January 2020, what countries had sporadic cases?

Inhibitory Effect and Possible Mechanism of Action of Patchouli Alcohol against Influenza A (H2N2) Virus https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6264369/ SHA: f2d842780b9928cc70f38a4458553f2431877603 Authors: Wu, Huaxing; Li, Beili; Wang, Xue; Jin, Mingyuan; Wang, Guonian Date: 2011-08-03 DOI: 10.3390/molecules16086489 License: cc-by Abstract: In the present study, the anti-influenza A (H2N2) virus activity of patchouli alcohol was studied in vitro, in vivo and in silico. The CC(50) of patchouli alcohol was above 20 µM. Patchouli alcohol could inhibit influenza virus with an IC(50) of 4.03 ± 0.23 µM. MTT assay showed that the inhibition by patchouli alcohol appears strongly after penetration of the virus into the cell. In the influenza mouse model, patchouli alcohol showed obvious protection against the viral infection at a dose of 5 mg/kg/day. Flexible docking and molecular dynamic simulations indicated that patchouli alcohol was bound to the neuraminidase protein of influenza virus, with an interaction energy of –40.38 kcal mol(–1). The invariant key active-site residues Asp151, Arg152, Glu119, Glu276 and Tyr406 played important roles during the binding process. Based on spatial and energetic criteria, patchouli alcohol interfered with the NA functions. Results presented here suggest that patchouli alcohol possesses anti-influenza A (H2N2) virus properties, and therefore is a potential source of anti-influenza agents for the pharmaceutical industry. Text: The influenza virus, which is one of the main causes of acute respiratory infections in humans, can lead to annual epidemics and infrequent pandemics. The two influenza pandemics of the 20 th century, "Asian Influenza (1957/H2N2)" and "Hong Kong Influenza (1968/H3N2)" resulted in the deaths of an estimated 2-3 million people globally [1, 2] . Today, their descendants continue to cause the majority of influenza infections in humans [3] . So far as it is learned that the most effective antiviral drug is the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor, which target the NA glycoproteins of influenza A and B virus [4, 5] . The release of new virions from the infected cell is a key step in the influenza life cycle and need neuraminidase (NA) to cleave the α-ketosidic linkage between terminal sialic acid and an adjacent sugar residue [6] . The NA inhibitors were designed to prevent the key step by blocking the active site of enzyme and thus allow sufficient time for the host immune systems to remove infected viruses [7] . Consistent efforts have been devoted to the development of NA inhibitors, using the crystal structure of the N2 sub-type NA protein [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] . Indeed, oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is the representative NA inhibitor that has proven to be uniquely applicable oral drug in clinical practice for the treatment of influenza infection [4, 8, 9] . However, with an increase in medical use, the oseltamivir-resistant strains have been found and probably lead to a large scale outbreak of novel pandemic flu [16, 17] . Patchouli alcohol ( Figure 1 ) has been well known for over a century. It is a major constituent of the pungent oil from the East Indian shrub Pogostemon cablin (Blanco) Benth, and widely used in fragrances. Patchouli oil is an important essential oil in the perfume industry, used to give a base and lasting character to a fragrance [16, 17] . The essential oil is very appreciated for its characteristic pleasant and long lasting woody, earthy, and camphoraceous odor, as well as for its fixative properties, being suitable for use in soaps and cosmetic products [16, 17] . The aerial part of Pogostemon cablin has wildly been used for the treatment of the common cold and as an antifungal agent in China [16, 17] . Moreover, the plant is widely used in Traditional Chinese Medicine as it presents various types of pharmacological activity according to the composition of the oil [16, 17] . Patchouli alcohol, as the major volatile constituent of patchouli oil, has been found to strongly inhibit H1N1 replication and weakly inhibit B/Ibaraki/2/85 replication [18] . To the best of our knowledge, the anti-influenza virus (H2N2) activities of patchouli alcohol have not been evaluated yet. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate the anti-influenza A virus (H2N2) activity of patchouli alcohol by MTT assay and mouse influenza model. On such basis, explicitly solvated docking and molecular dynamic (MD) methods were applied to investigative the binding mode involving patchouli alcohol with influenza virus NA protein. We anticipate that the insight into the understanding of inhibiting mechanism will be of value in the rational design of novel anti-influenza drugs. First the efficacy of patchouli alcohol on influenza A (H2N2) virus replication and cell viability were examined. CC 50 was used to express the cytotoxicity of patchouli alcohol on MDCK. The CC 50 of patchouli alcohol was above 20 mM, which indicated that patchouli alcohol did not affect the growth of MDCK (Table 1) . Thus, it seems that the antiviral effects of patchouli alcohol were not due to the cytotoxicity. Moreover, patchouli alcohol was found to inhibit influenza A (H2N2) virus with an IC 50 of 4.03 ± 0.23 µM. Based on the IC 50 and CC 50 values, the selectivity index (SI) was calculated as >4.96. It is reported that a SI of 4 or more is appropriate for an antiviral agent [18] , suggesting that patchouli alcohol can be judged to have anti-influenza A (H2N2) virus activity. Until now, it has been found that patchouli alcohol showed dose-dependent anti-influenza virus (A/PR/8/34, H1N1) activity, with an IC 50 value of 2.635 µM. Furthermore, it showed weak activity against B/Ibaraki/2/85 (IC 50 = 40.82 µM) [19] . With the addition of the above H2N2 inhibitory activity, we have a comprehensively view of the anti-influenza activity of patchouli alcohol. Cells were pretreated with patchouli alcohol prior to virus infection (pretreatment cells), viruses were pretreated prior to infection (pretreatment virus), and patchouli alcohol was added during the adsorption period (adsorption) or after penetration of the viruses into cells (replication). Experiments were repeated independently three times and data presented are the average of three experiments. The symbols * indicated very significant difference p < 0.01 with respect to other mode (pretreatment virus, adsorption and pretreatment cell). As shown in Figure 2 , patchouli alcohol showed anti-influenza A (H2N2) virus activity in a timedependent manner. It showed best antiviral activity when added at a concentration of 8 µM during the replication period with inhibition of the viral replication of 97.68% ± 2.09% for influenza A (H2N2) at 72 h. However, no significant effect was detected when patchouli alcohol was used for pretreatment of cells or viruses or when patchouli alcohol was only added during the adsorption phase. These results suggested that the inhibition of influenza A (H2N2) virus by patchouli alcohol appears to occur much more strongly after penetration of the virus into the cell. Besides, biochemical studies have indicated that the bioactivity of NA protein is essential determinant after the replication of influenza A (H2N2) virus [20] [21] [22] . Hence, we conclude that the function of NA protein may be suppressed by patchouli alcohol. To evaluate the toxicity of patchouli alcohol, the mean value of body weight of mice in each group was statistically analyzed. The mean weights of mice administered at the 2 mg/kg/dose oseltamivir, 2 mg/kg/dose patchouli alcohol and 10 mg/kg/dose of patchouli alcohol one time daily for 7 days were not significantly different compared with the normal control mice, showing no toxicity of patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir within the testing concentration (P > 0.05). Physiological status was observed in virus infection mice. Three days after viral infection, some mice, especially mice in the H2N2 infected control group showed changes in behavior, such as a tendency to huddle, diminished vitality, and ruffled fur, etc. In the mouse influenza model, viral infection leads to loss of body weight and high mortality. Therefore, the efficacy of patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir were evaluated on the basis of survival rate measured for 15 days post-infection, for treated infected animals relative to untreated infected (control) animals. A comparison of efficacy of patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir in vivo mouse influenza model (oral treatment) showed that at a dose of 5 mg/kg/day, patchouli alcohol showed obvious protection against the influenza virus, as the mean day to death was detected as 11.8 ± 1.1 (Table 2) . When the dose was lowered to 1 mg/kg/day, patchouli alcohol showed weaker protection (measured by Survivors/total) than that of 5 mg/kg/day, the mean day to death was 7.5 ± 1.8. Whereas oseltamivir at this dose level (1 mg/kg/day) showed 50% protection (measured by survivors/total) against the influenza virus. In the H2N2 infected control group, there were no survivors. In view of both in vitro and in vivo data, we conclude that patchouli alcohol could be used in the treatment of human influenza virus infections. Based on the above experiment data, patchouli alcohol is determined to be bound within NA protein. As the total energies and backbone root-mean-square-deviations (RMSD) in Figure 3 indicate, the energy-minimized patchouli alcohol-NA complex has been in equilibrium since about 0.5 ns, and then retains quite stable in the last 19.5 ns. It is consistent with the previous MD results of other NA inhibitors [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] . Accordingly, the geometric and energetic analyses were made on the average structures of 0.5~20.0 ns MD trajectories, where the system has been already at equilibrium. The interaction energy (E inter ) of patchouli alcohol with NA was calculated at −40.38 kcal mol −1 , where the vdW rather than electrostatic interactions were found to play a dominant role, contribute to about 72% (−29.18 kcal mol −1 ). As shown in Figure 4 , the patchouli alcohol was bound at the active site which also bound to oseltamivir and zanamivir [28] . As Figure 5 shows, the oxygen atom of patchouli alcohol was oriented towards the sidechains of residues Glu119 and Tyr406, with one H-bond formed with each residue. The values of distances in Figure 6 further reveal that the docked complex remains rather stable throughout the simulation, with the average distances of Glu119:OE2patchouli alcohol:O and Tyr406:OH -patchouli alcohol:O less than 2.8 Å. The sum contributions (E sum ) of residues Glu119 and Tyr406 amounted to −8.46 and −7.37 kcal mol −1 , respectively (Table 3) . Besides, patchouli alcohol was stabilized by residues Arg118, Asp151, Arg152, Trp178, Ala246, Glu276, Arg292, Asn294 and Gln347, especially residues Asp151, Arg152 and Glu276 ( Figure 5 and Table 3 ). As a matter of fact, residues Asp151, Arg152, Glu119, Glu276 and Tyr406 of the NA protein have already received enough attention from rational drug designs [14, 30, 31] . The catalytic residues Asp151, Arg152 and Glu276 are crucial to the NA functions and the residues Glu119 and Tyr406 are important to stabilize the NA active sites [32, 33] . It suggests that the NA functions will be affected by the presence of patchouli alcohol, consistent with the above experiments. Patchouli alcohol matches with the NA active site and has an acceptable interaction energy. Considering the obvious structure discrepancies against current NA inhibitors, it represents an ideal lead compound for the designs of novel anti-influenza agents. Patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir were obtained from Sigma Chemical Co. (St. Louis, MO, USA, purity > 99%) and was stored in glass vials with Teflon sealed caps at −20 ± 0.5 °C in the absence of light. MDCK (Madin-Darby canine kidney) was purchased from Harbin Veterinary Research Institute (Harbin, Heilongjiang, China). The cells were grown in monolayer culture with Eagle's minimum essential medium (EMEM) supplemented with 10% fetal calf serum (FCS), 100 U/mL penicillin and 100 μg/mL streptomycin. The monolayers were removed from their plastic surfaces and serially passaged whenever they became confluent. Cells were plated out onto 96-well culture plates for cytotoxicity and anti-influenza assays, and propagated at 37 °C in an atmosphere of 5% CO 2 . The influenza strain A/Leningrad/134/17/1957 H2N2) was purchased from National Control Institute of Veterinary Bioproducts and Pharmaceuticals (Beijing, China). Virus was routinely grown on MDCK cells. The stock cultures were prepared from supernatants of infected cells and stored at −80 °C. The cellular toxicity of patchouli alcohol on MDCK cells was assessed by the MTT method. Briefly, cells were seeded on a microtiter plate in the absence or presence of various concentrations (20 µM -0.0098 µM) of patchouli alcohol (eight replicates) and incubated at 37 °C in a humidified atmosphere of 5% CO 2 for 72 h. The supernatants were discarded, washed with PBS twice and MTT reagent (5 mg/mL in PBS) was added to each well. After incubation at 37 °C for 4 h, the supernatants were removed, then 200 μL DMSO was added and incubated at 37 °C for another 30 min. After that the plates were read on an ELISA reader (Thermo Molecular Devices Co., Union City, USA) at 570/630 nm. The mean OD of the cell control wells was assigned a value of 100%. The maximal non-toxic concentration (TD 0 ) and 50% cytotoxic concentration (CC 50 ) were calculated by linear regression analysis of the dose-response curves generated from the data. Inhibition of virus replication was measured by the MTT method. Serial dilution of the treated virus was adsorbed to the cells for 1 h at 37 °C. The residual inoculum was discared and infected cells were added with EMEM containing 2% FCS. Each assay was performed in eight replicates. After incubation for 72 h at 37 °C, the cultures were measured by MTT method as described above. The concentration of patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir which inhibited virus numbers by 50% (IC 50 ) was determined from dose-response curves. Cells and viruses were incubated with patchouli alcohol at different stages during the viral infection cycle in order to determine the mode of antiviral action. Cells were pretreated with patchouli alcohol before viral infection, viruses were incubated with patchouli alcohol before infection and cells and viruses were incubated together with patchouli alcohol during adsorption or after penetration of the virus into the host cells. Patchouli alcohol was always used at the nontoxic concentration. Cell monolayers were pretreated with patchouli alcohol prior to inoculation with virus by adding patchouli alcohol to the culture medium and incubation for 1 h at 37 °C. The compound was aspirated and cells were washed immediately before the influenza A (H2N2) inoculum was added. For pretreatment virus, Influenza A (H2N2) was incubated in medium containing patchouli alcohol for 1h at room temperature prior to infection of MDCK cells. For analyzing the anti-influenza A (H2N2) inhibition during the adsorption period, the same amount of influenza A (H2N2) was mixed with the drug and added to the cells immediately. After 1 h of adsorption at 37 °C, the inoculum was removed and DMEM supplemented with 2 % FCS were added to the cells. The effect of patchouli alcohol against influenza A (H2N2) was also tested during the replication period by adding it after adsorption, as typical performed in anti-influenza A (H2N2) susceptibility studies. Each assay was run in eight replicates. Kunming mice, weighing 18-22 g (6 weeks of age) were purchased from Harbin Veterinary Research Institute Animal Co., Ltd. (Harbin, Heilongjiang, China) . First, the toxicity of patchouli alcohol and oseltamivir was assessed in the healthy mice by the loss of body weight compared with the control group (2% DMSO in physiological saline). The mice were orally administered with 10 mg/kg/dose patchouli alcohol, 2 mg/kg/dose patchouli alcohol or 2 mg/kg/dose oseltamivir (dissolved in 2% DMSO in physiological saline) one time daily for 7 days. The weight of mice was determined daily. We conducted procedures according to Principle of Laboratory Animal Care (NIH Publication No. 85 -23, revised 1985) and the guidelines of the Peking University Animal Research Committee. Kunming mice were anesthetized with isoflurane and exposed to virus (A/Leningrad/134/17/1957) by intranasal instillation. Drugs were prepared in 2% DMSO in physiological saline and administered 4 h prior to virus exposure and continued daily for 5 days. All mice were observed daily for changes in weight and for any deaths. Parameters for evaluation of antiviral activity included weight loss, reduction in mortality and/or increase in mean day to death (MDD) determined through 15 days. The N2 sub-type neuraminidase crystal structure (PDB code 1IVD) was obtained from the RCSB Protein Data Bank [34] . For convenience, the structure is named as NA hereafter. Geometry and partial atomic charges of the patchouli alcohol ( Figure 1) were calculated with the Discover 3.0 module (Insight II 2005) [35] by applying the BFGS algorithm [36] and the consistent-valence force-field (CVFF), with a convergence criterion of 0.01 kcal mol −1 Å −1 . The docking and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were performed by the general protocols in the Insight II 2005 software packages, consistent with the previous literatures [24, 26, 28, 35, [37] [38] [39] . During the MD simulations, the canonical ensemble (NVT) was employed at normal temperature (300 K). The MD temperature was controlled by the velocity scaling thermostat [40] . Integrations of the classical equations of motion were achieved using the Verlet algorithm. The systems were solvated in a large sphere of TIP3P water molecules [40] with the radius of 35.0 Å, which is enough to hold the ensembles [40] . The MD trajectories were generated using a 1.0-fs time step for a total of 20.0 ns, saved at 5.0-ps intervals. The interaction energies of patchouli alcohol with NA and the respective residues at the NA active site were calculated by the Docking module [35], over the 0.5~20.0 ns MD trajectories. All results are expressed as mean values ± standard deviations (SDs) (n = 3). The significance of difference was calculated by one-way analysis of variance, and values p < 0.001 were considered to be significant. In conclusion, patchouli alcohol possesses anti-influenza A (H2N2) virus activity via interference with the NA function that cleaves the α-glycosidic bond between sialic acid and glycoconjugate. Our results provide the promising information for the potential use of patchouli alcohol in the treatment of influenza A (H2N2) virus infectious disease. Further mechanistic studies on the anti-influenza A virus activity are needed to support this point of view.

What was the focus of this study?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

Where else MERS-COV has also been detected?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

What are the recent activities of CHIKV?

Factors Associated With Mental Health Outcomes Among Health Care Workers Exposed to Coronavirus Disease 2019 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7090843/ SHA: 0a08fddd9dcee1b1254a05b49113521bbc423ccd Authors: Lai, Jianbo; Ma, Simeng; Wang, Ying; Cai, Zhongxiang; Hu, Jianbo; Wei, Ning; Wu, Jiang; Du, Hui; Chen, Tingting; Li, Ruiting; Tan, Huawei; Kang, Lijun; Yao, Lihua; Huang, Manli; Wang, Huafen; Wang, Gaohua; Liu, Zhongchun; Hu, Shaohua Date: 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.3976 License: cc-by Abstract: IMPORTANCE: Health care workers exposed to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be psychologically stressed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the magnitude of mental health outcomes and associated factors among health care workers treating patients exposed to COVID-19 in China. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional, survey-based, region-stratified study collected demographic data and mental health measurements from 1257 health care workers in 34 hospitals from January 29, 2020, to February 3, 2020, in China. Health care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 were eligible. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The degree of symptoms of depression, anxiety, insomnia, and distress was assessed by the Chinese versions of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the 7-item Insomnia Severity Index, and the 22-item Impact of Event Scale–Revised, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with mental health outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1257 of 1830 contacted individuals completed the survey, with a participation rate of 68.7%. A total of 813 (64.7%) were aged 26 to 40 years, and 964 (76.7%) were women. Of all participants, 764 (60.8%) were nurses, and 493 (39.2%) were physicians; 760 (60.5%) worked in hospitals in Wuhan, and 522 (41.5%) were frontline health care workers. A considerable proportion of participants reported symptoms of depression (634 [50.4%]), anxiety (560 [44.6%]), insomnia (427 [34.0%]), and distress (899 [71.5%]). Nurses, women, frontline health care workers, and those working in Wuhan, China, reported more severe degrees of all measurements of mental health symptoms than other health care workers (eg, median [IQR] Patient Health Questionnaire scores among physicians vs nurses: 4.0 [1.0-7.0] vs 5.0 [2.0-8.0]; P = .007; median [interquartile range {IQR}] Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale scores among men vs women: 2.0 [0-6.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-7.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Insomnia Severity Index scores among frontline vs second-line workers: 6.0 [2.0-11.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-8.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Impact of Event Scale–Revised scores among those in Wuhan vs those in Hubei outside Wuhan and those outside Hubei: 21.0 [8.5-34.5] vs 18.0 [6.0-28.0] in Hubei outside Wuhan and 15.0 [4.0-26.0] outside Hubei; P < .001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed participants from outside Hubei province were associated with lower risk of experiencing symptoms of distress compared with those in Wuhan (odds ratio [OR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.88; P = .008). Frontline health care workers engaged in direct diagnosis, treatment, and care of patients with COVID-19 were associated with a higher risk of symptoms of depression (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.11-2.09; P = .01), anxiety (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.22-2.02; P < .001), insomnia (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.92-4.60; P < .001), and distress (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.25-2.04; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this survey of heath care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan and other regions in China, participants reported experiencing psychological burden, especially nurses, women, those in Wuhan, and frontline health care workers directly engaged in the diagnosis, treatment, and care for patients with COVID-19. Text: Abbreviation: PHQ-9, 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire; GAD-7, 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder; ISI, 7-item Insomnia Severity Index; IES-R, 22-item Impact of Event Abbreviation: IES-R, 22-item Impact of Event Scale-Revised; IQR, interquartile range. Hyperarousal, median (IQR) 6.0(2.0, 10.0) 6.0(2.0, 9.0) .29

What were the results of analysis?

A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus https://doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 SHA: 018269476cd191365d6b8bed046078aea07c8c01 Authors: Yin, Tian-Mu Chen; Jia, Rui; Qiu-Peng, Wang; Ze-Yu, Zhao; Jing-An, Cui; Ling Date: 2020 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00640-3 License: cc-by Abstract: Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R 0) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Text: On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China, and WHO reported that a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020, was identified as the causative virus by Chinese authorities on 7 January [1] . It is reported that the virus might be bat origin [2] , and the transmission of the virus might related to a seafood market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) exposure [3, 4] . The genetic features and some clinical findings of the infection have been reported recently [4] [5] [6] . Potentials for international spread via commercial air travel had been assessed [7] . Public health concerns are being paid globally on how many people are infected and suspected. Therefore, it is urgent to develop a mathematical model to estimate the transmissibility and dynamic of the transmission of the virus. There were several researches focusing on mathematical modelling [3, 8] . These researches focused on calculating the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) by using the serial intervals and intrinsic growth rate [3, 9, 10] , or using ordinary differential equations and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods [8] . However, the bat origin and the transmission route form the seafood market to people were not considered in the published models. In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model, and R 0 was calculated based on the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. The reported cases of SARS-CoV-2, which have been named as COVID-19, were collected for the modelling study from a published literature [3] . As reported by Li et al. [3] , the onset date of the first case was on 7 December, 2020, and the seafood market was closed on 1 January, 2020 [11] . The epidemic curve from 7 December, 2019 to 1 January, 2020 was collected for our study, and the simulation time step was 1 day. fourth-order Runge-Kutta method, with tolerance set at 0.001, was used to perform curve fitting. While the curve fitting is in progress, Berkeley Madonna displays the root mean square deviation between the data and best run so far. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was employed to assess the goodness-of-fit. SPSS 13.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA) was employed to calculate the R 2 . The Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People (BHRP) transmission network model The BHRP transmission network model was posted to bioRxiv on 19 January, 2020 [12] . We assumed that the virus transmitted among the bats, and then transmitted to unknown hosts (probably some wild animals). The hosts were hunted and sent to the seafood market which was defined as the reservoir of the virus. People exposed to the market got the risks of the infection (Fig. 1) . The BHRP transmission network model was based on the following assumptions or facts: a) The bats were divided into four compartments: susceptible bats (S B ), exposed bats (E B ), infected bats (I B ), and removed bats (R B ). The birth rate and death rate of bats were defined as n B and m B . In this model, we set Ʌ B = n B × N B as the number of the newborn bats where N B refer to the total number of bats. The incubation period of bat infection was defined as 1/ω B and the infectious period of bat infection was defined as 1/γ B . The S B will be infected through sufficient contact with I B , and the transmission rate was defined as β B . b) The hosts were also divided into four compartments: susceptible hosts (S H ), exposed hosts (E H ), infected hosts (I H ), and removed hosts (R H ). The birth rate and death rate of hosts were defined as n H and m H . In this model, we set Ʌ H = n H × N H where N H refer to the total number of hosts. The incubation period of host infection was defined as 1/ω H and the infectious period of host infection was defined as 1/γ H . The S H will be infected through sufficient contact with I B and I H , and the transmission rates were defined as β BH and β H , respectively. c) The SARS-CoV-2 in reservoir (the seafood market) was denoted as W. We assumed that the retail purchases rate of the hosts in the market was a, and that the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the purchases was I H /N H , therefore, the rate of the SARS-CoV-2 in W imported form the hosts was aWI H /N H where N H was the total number of hosts. We also assumed that symptomatic infected people and asymptomatic infected people could export the virus into W with the rate of μ P and μ' P , although this assumption might occur in a low probability. The virus in W will subsequently leave the W compartment at a rate of εW, where 1/ε is the lifetime of the virus. d) The people were divided into five compartments: susceptible people (S P ), exposed people (E P ), symptomatic infected people (I P ), asymptomatic infected people (A P ), and removed people (R P ) including recovered and death people. The birth rate and death rate of people were defined as n P and m P . In this model, we set Ʌ P = n P × N P where N P refer to the total number of people. The incubation period and latent period of human infection was defined as 1/ω P and 1/ω' P . The infectious period of I P and A P was defined as 1/γ P and 1/γ' P . The proportion of asymptomatic infection was defined as δ P . The S P will be infected through sufficient contact with W and I P , and the transmission rates were defined as β W and β P , respectively. We also assumed that the transmissibility of A P was κ times that of I P , where 0 ≤ κ ≤ 1. The parameters of the BHRP model were shown in Table 1 . We assumed that the SARS-CoV-2 might be imported to the seafood market in a short time. Therefore, we added the further assumptions as follows: a) The transmission network of Bats-Host was ignored. b) Based on our previous studies on simulating importation [13, 14] , we set the initial value of W as following impulse function: In the function, n, t 0 and t i refer to imported volume of the SARS-CoV-2 to the market, start time of the simulation, and the interval of the importation. Therefore, the BHRP model was simplified as RP model and is shown as follows: During the outbreak period, the natural birth rate and death rate in the population was in a relative low level. However, people would commonly travel into and out from Wuhan City mainly due to the Chinese New Year holiday. Therefore, n P and m P refer to the rate of people traveling into Wuhan City and traveling out from Wuhan City, respectively. In the model, people and viruses have different dimensions. Based on our previous research [15] , we therefore used the following sets to perform the normalization: In the normalization, parameter c refers to the relative shedding coefficient of A P compared to I P . The normalized RP model is changed as follows: The transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2 based on the RP model In this study, we used the R 0 to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Commonly, R 0 was defined as the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population [13, 16, 17] . If R 0 > 1, the outbreak will occur. If R 0 < 1, the outbreak will toward an end. In this study, R 0 was deduced from the RP model by the next generation matrix approach [18] . The multiple of the transmissibility of A P to that of I P . The parameters were estimated based on the following facts and assumptions: a) The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.1-7.0) [3] . We set the same value (5.2 days) of the incubation period and the latent period in this study. Thus, ω P = ω' P = 0.1923. b) There is a mean 5-day delay from symptom onset to detection/hospitalization of a case (the cases detected in Thailand and Japan were hospitalized from 3 to 7 days after onset, respectively) [19] [20] [21] . The duration from illness onset to first medical visit for the 45 patients with illness onset before January 1 was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% CI: 4.3-7.5) [3] . In our model, we set the infectious period of the cases as 5.8 days. Therefore, γ P = 0.1724. c) Since there was no data on the proportion of asymptomatic infection of the virus, we simulated the baseline value of proportion of 0.5 (δ P = 0.5). d) Since there was no evidence about the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection, we assumed that the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was 0.5 times that of symptomatic infection (κ = 0.5), which was the similar value as influenza [22] . We assumed that the relative shedding rate of A P compared to I P was 0.5. Thus, c = 0.5. e) Since 14 January, 2020, Wuhan City has strengthened the body temperature detection of passengers leaving Wuhan at airports, railway stations, long-distance bus stations and passenger terminals. As of January 17, a total of nearly 0.3 million people had been tested for body temperature [23] . In Wuhan, there are about 2.87 million mobile population [24] . We assumed that there was 0.1 million people moving out to Wuhan City per day since January 10, 2020, and we believe that this number would increase (mainly due to the winter vacation and the Chinese New Year holiday) until 24 January, 2020. This means that the 2.87 million would move out from Wuhan City in about 14 days. Therefore, we set the moving volume of 0.2 million per day in our model. Since the population of Wuhan was about 11 million at the end of 2018 [25] , the rate of people traveling out from Wuhan City would be 0.018 (0.2/11) per day. However, we assumed that the normal population mobility before January 1 was 0.1 times as that after January 10. Therefore, we set the rate of people moving into and moving out from Wuhan City as 0.0018 per day (n P = m P = 0.0018). f) The parameters b P and b W were estimated by fitting the model with the collected data. g) At the beginning of the simulation, we assumed that the prevalence of the virus in the market was 1/100000. h) Since the SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, we assumed that it could be died in the environment in a short time, but it could be stay for a longer time (10 days) in the unknown hosts in the market. We set ε = 0.1. In this study, we assumed that the incubation period (1/ ω P ) was the same as latent period (1/ω' P ) of human infection, thus ω P = ω' P . Based on the equations of RP model, we can get the disease free equilibrium point as: In the matrix: By the next generation matrix approach, we can get the next generation matrix and R 0 for the RP model: The R 0 of the normalized RP model is shown as follows: Our modelling results showed that the normalized RP model fitted well to the reported SARS-CoV-2 cases data (R 2 = 0.512, P < 0.001) (Fig. 2) . The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person, and from person to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. In this study, we developed RP transmission model, which considering the routes from reservoir to person and from person to person of SARS-CoV-2 respectively. We used the models to fit the reported data in Wuhan City, China from published literature [3] . The simulation results showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 3.58 from person to person. There was a research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.47-2.86) [8] . Another research showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.2 (95% CI: 1.4-3.9) [3] . The different values might be due to the different methods. The methods which Li et al. employed were based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval [3] . Our previous study showed that several methods could be used to calculate the R 0 based on the epidemic growth rate of the epidemic curve and the serial interval, and different methods might result in different values of R 0 [26] . Our results also showed that the R 0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 2.30 from reservoir to person which was lower than that of person to person. This means that the transmission route was mainly from person to person rather than from reservoir to person in the early stage of the transmission in Wuhan City. However, this result was based on the limited data from a published literature, and it might not show the real situation at the early stage of the transmission. Researches showed that the R 0 of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was about 2.7-3.4 or 2-4 in Hong Kong, China [27, 28] . Another research found that the R 0 of SARS was about 2.1 in Hong Kong, China, 2.7 in Singapore, and 3.8 in Beijing, China [29] . Therefore, we believe that the commonly acceptable average value of the R 0 of SARS might be 2.9 [30] . The transmissibility of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is much lower than SARS. The reported value of the R 0 of MERS was about 0.8-1.3 [31] , with the inter-human transmissibility of the disease was about 0.6 or 0.9 in Middle East countries [32] . However, MERS had a high transmissibility in the outbreak in the Republic of Korea with the R 0 of 2.5-7.2 [33, 34] . Therefore, the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS transmitted in the Republic of Korea. To contain the transmission of the virus, it is important to decrease R 0 . According to the equation of R 0 deduced from the simplified RP model, R 0 is related to many parameters. The mainly parameters which could be changed were b P , b W , and γ. Interventions such as wearing masks and increasing social distance could decrease the b P , the intervention that close the seafood market could decrease the b W , and shorten the duration form symptoms onset to be diagnosed could decrease 1/γ. All these interventions could decrease the effective reproduction number and finally be helpful to control the transmission. Since there are too many parameters in our model, several limitations exist in this study. Firstly, we did not use the detailed data of the SARS-CoV-2 to perform the estimation instead of using the data from literatures [3] . We simulated the natural history of the infection that the proportion of asymptomatic infection was 50%, and the transmissibility of asymptomatic infection was half of that of symptomatic infection, which were different to those of MERS and SARS. It is known that the proportion of asymptomatic infection of MERS and SARS was lower than 10%. Secondly, the parameters of population mobility were not from an accurate dataset. Thirdly, since there was no data of the initial prevalence of the virus in the seafood market, we assumed the initial value of 1/100 000. This assumption might lead to the simulation been under-or over-estimated. In addition, since we did not consider the changing rate of the individual's activity (such as wearing masks, increasing social distance, and not to travel to Wuhan City), the estimation of importation of the virus might not be correct. All these limitations will lead to the uncertainty of our results. Therefore, the accuracy and the validity of the estimation would be better if the models fit the first-hand data on the population mobility and the data on the natural history, the epidemiological characteristics, and the transmission mechanism of the virus. By calculating the published data, our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 might be higher than MERS in the Middle East countries, similar to SARS, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea. Since the objective of this study was to provide a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, the R 0 was estimated based on limited data which published in a literature. More data were needed to estimate the transmissibility accurately.

What was the SARS-COV-2 reservoir?

Pandemic Influenza Due to pH1N1/2009 Virus: Estimation of Infection Burden in Reunion Island through a Prospective Serosurvey, Austral Winter 2009 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3183080/ SHA: ee6d70a53e3262cea6f85bd8b226f6b4c8b5f64b Authors: Dellagi, Koussay; Rollot, Olivier; Temmam, Sarah; Salez, Nicolas; Guernier, Vanina; Pascalis, Hervé; Gérardin, Patrick; Fianu, Adrian; Lapidus, Nathanael; Naty, Nadège; Tortosa, Pablo; Boussaïd, Karim; Jaffar-Banjee, Marie-Christine; Filleul, Laurent; Flahault, Antoine; Carrat, Fabrice; Favier, Francois; de Lamballerie, Xavier Date: 2011-09-29 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025738 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: To date, there is little information that reflects the true extent of spread of the pH1N1/2009v influenza pandemic at the community level as infection often results in mild or no clinical symptoms. This study aimed at assessing through a prospective study, the attack rate of pH1N1/2009 virus in Reunion Island and risk factors of infection, during the 2009 season. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A serosurvey was conducted during the 2009 austral winter, in the frame of a prospective population study. Pairs of sera were collected from 1687 individuals belonging to 772 households, during and after passage of the pandemic wave. Antibodies to pH1N1/2009v were titered using the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA) with titers ≥1/40 being considered positive. Seroprevalence during the first two weeks of detection of pH1N1/2009v in Reunion Island was 29.8% in people under 20 years of age, 35.6% in adults (20–59 years) and 73.3% in the elderly (≥60 years) (P<0.0001). Baseline corrected cumulative incidence rates, were 42.9%, 13.9% and 0% in these age groups respectively (P<0.0001). A significant decline in antibody titers occurred soon after the passage of the epidemic wave. Seroconversion rates to pH1N1/2009 correlated negatively with age: 63.2%, 39.4% and 16.7%, in each age group respectively (P<0.0001). Seroconversion occurred in 65.2% of individuals who were seronegative at inclusion compared to 6.8% in those who were initially seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: Seroincidence of pH1N1/2009v infection was three times that estimated from clinical surveillance, indicating that almost two thirds of infections occurring at the community level have escaped medical detection. People under 20 years of age were the most affected group. Pre-epidemic titers ≥1/40 prevented seroconversion and are likely protective against infection. A concern was raised about the long term stability of the antibody responses. Text: In April 2009, the first cases of acute respiratory infections caused by a novel triple-reassortant influenza virus, pH1N1/ 2009v, occurred in Mexico and the United States [1] . The rapid spread of infection to other continents led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare on 11 June 2009 that a pandemic of pH1N1/2009v influenza was under way, which raised major international concern about the risk of high morbidity and lethality and the potential for severe socio-economic impact. Actually, the potential impact of this first third-millenium influenza pandemic has been revisited downwards as morbidity and case-fatality rates were less severe than initially anticipated [2] . Illness surveillance data do not allow to an accurate estimate of the true influenza infection rate, as a substantial proportion of infections are asymptomatic or mild [3] . Serological surveys can overcome this limitation, but must take into account that a significant proportion of the population that exhibited crossprotective antibody titers before circulation of the pH1N1/2009v [4] . This so-called ''baseline immunity'' has to be subtracted from the seroprevalence observed after the pandemic wave, to determine seroincidence in serosurveys [5] [6] [7] [8] . However, except for few studies [9] [10] [11] , most of these serosurveys did not use serial measurements in the same person, which allows for a better understanding of antibody kinetics and the dynamics of infection within individuals and communities. Reunion Island (805,500 inhabitants) is a French overseas department located in the southwestern Indian Ocean, 700 km east of Madagascar and 200 km southwest of Mauritius. The first imported case of pH1N1/2009v was identified on 5 th July 2009 (week 29) in a traveller returning from Australia. The first case indicating community transmission was detected on 21 st July (week 30). pH1N1/2009v became the predominant circulating influenza virus within four weeks of its first detection, its activity peaked during week 35 (24) (25) (26) (27) (28) (29) (30) and ended at week 38 [12] . Contrary to initial fears, the health care system was not overwhelmed, as morbidity and mortality rates were lower than predicted [12] [13] [14] . In order to assess at the community level, the actual magnitude of the pH1N1/2009v pandemic and the extent of the herd immunity acquired after passage of the epidemic wave, a prospective population serosurvey was conducted in Reunion Island during the passage of the epidemic wave in the 2009 austral winter season (July-December 2009): prevalence of infection was assessed on a weekly basis and seroconversion rates were measured using paired sera. The CoPanFLu-RUN was part of the CoPanFLu international project, a consortium between the French National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM), the Institute of Research for Development (IRD) and the Mérieux Fondation under the promotion of the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health (EHESP). To enable the rapid implementation of the study in anticipation of the imminent spread of the pandemic wave, we used a pre-existing sample of 2442 households established in October 2006 for the investigation of the Chikungunya outbreak (SEROCHIK) and updated in May 2008 throughout a follow-up telephone survey (TELECHIK) on a basis of 1148 households [15, 16] . We took special attention to select households representing a wide range of geographic locations in order to minimize the repartition bias. The inclusion phase started on July 21 st (week 30) and was continued up to week 44, throughout the epidemic wave and beyond. A first serum sample (sample 1) was obtained from each household member. An active telephonic inquiry was then conducted twice a week to record symptoms compatible with influenza-like illness (ILI) occurring in households. Report of ILI (fever $37.8uC associated with any respiratory or systemic symptom) led to three consecutive visits of a nurse to the incident case-dwelling (on day 0, +3 and +8 post-report) to record symptoms and collect nasal swabs from all family members (for qRT-PCR detection of pH1N1/2009v. At week 45, the active inquiry was discontinued and a second (post-epidemic) serum sample (sample 2) was obtained (weeks 45-52) to determine seroconversion rates. Sera were aliquoted and stored at 280uC. The protocol was conducted in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and French law for biomedical research (Nu ID RCB AFSSAPS: 2009-A00689-48) and was approved by the local Ethics Committee (Comité de Protection des Personnes of Bordeaux 2 University). Every eligible person for participation was asked for giving their written informed consent. Viral genome detection by RT-PCR. Viral RNA was extracted from 140 mL of nasal swab eluate using the QIAamp Viral RNA kit (Qiagen) and processed for detection by TaqMan qRT-PCR targeting the heamagglutinin HA gene (SuperScript III Platinum one-step qRT-PCR system, Invitrogen) according to the recommendations of the Pasteur Institute (Van der Werf S. & Enouf V., SOP/FluA/130509). Confirmed pH1N1/2009v infection was defined as a positive qRT-PCR detection of the HA gene in at least one nasal swab. Hemagglutination inhibition assay (HIA). A standard hemagglutination inhibition technique was adapted to detect and quantify pH1N1/2009v antibodies [17] . The antigen was prepared by diluting a non-inactivated cell culture supernatant producing a pdm H1N1v strain (strain OPYFLU-1 isolated from a young patient returning from Mexico in early May 2009) [18] . Briefly, the virus was propagated onto MDCK cells under standard conditions. The last passage (used for antigen preparation) was performed in the absence of trypsin and ht-FBS. The supernatant was collected at day seven p.i. clarified by centrifugation at 8006 g for 10 min at room temperature, aliquoted and conserved at 280uC. The hemagglutinating titer of the non inactivated viral antigen was immediately determined under the HIA format described below. The dilution providing 5.33 hemagglutinating units in a volume of 25 mL was used for subsequent HIA. Sera were heat-inactivated at 56uC for 30 min prior to use. Sequential twofold dilutions in PBS (1/10 to 1/1280) in volumes of 25 mL were performed and distributed in V-bottom 96 well microplates. Human red blood cells (RBC) were used for hemagglutination experiments. Detection and quantification of antibody to pH1N1/2009v was performed as follows: 25 mL of virus suspension was added to the serum dilution (25 mL) and incubated for 1 hour at room temperature. Each well was then filled with 25 mL of a 1% RBC suspension in PBS (v/v: 0.33%), followed by another 30 min incubation at room temperature. The HIA titer was determined as the last dilution providing clear inhibition of hemagglutination. All experiments were performed in the presence of the same negative and positive controls, the latter including sera with 1/40, 1/80, 1/160 and 1/320 antibody titers. The results reported in this study were based only on serological analysis of paired sera. For the sake of analysis, four successive phases were identified throughout the pandemic wave: phase A (weeks 30-31) corresponded to early epidemic time, phase B (W32-39) to the epidemic unfolding, phase C (W40-44) to the immediate post-epidemic stage and phase D (W45-52) to the late post-epidemic stage. Seropositivity was defined as a HIA titer of 1/ 40 or more. The baseline-proxy seroprevalence rate was estimated on serum samples collected in phase A. The cumulative incidence rate of infection measured the raise between the raw seroprevalence rate at any given time during the epidemic phases (S2pi) and the age-specific baseline-proxy seroprevalence rate (S1pA) (s2 pi -s1 pA ). Seroconversion was defined as a shift from seronegative at inclusion (sample 1: HIA ,1/40) to seropositive on follow-up (sample 2: HIA $1/40), or for sera tested seropositive on inclusion as a four-fold increase of HIA titers between sample 1 and sample 2 paired sera. We also calculated the proportion of sera that tested seropositive in sample 1 for which the HIA titer decreased fourfold and passed under the cut-off value of 1/40 in sample 2. We considered this proportion as a ''seronegation'' rate. The sample size was calculated for identifying risk factors in the prospective cohort study. Considering on average three individuals per household, an intra-household correlation of 0.3, a power greater than 80% could be obtained with a sample size of 840 comprising 2500 individuals, assuming exposure levels ranging from 10% to 90% and a relative risk greater than 1.3. With 2,500 subjects, the study allowed 1-2% absolute precision around the estimated values for seroconversion rates. Data entry used EpiData version 3.1 (The Epidata Association, Odense, Denmark). SAS version 9.1 (SAS Inc., Cary, NC, USA) was used for statistical analysis. The characteristics of the study cohort were compared to those of the population of Reunion Island and a Chi2 test (or Fisher's exact test when non applicable) was used to analyse differences in age, sex and geographic location. Cumulative incidence rates of infection (i.e. seroincidence) and seroconversion rates were standardized according to the age structure of the community (French National Institute for Statistics and Economical Studies (INSEE) source). Baseline-proxy seroprevalence, cumulative incidence rates of infection, as well as seroconversion and seronegation rates, were expressed as percentages. Cumulative reverse distribution curves were used to show the distribution of antibody titers. In all tests, a P value,0.05 was considered significant. We estimated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of proportions by using a cluster bootstrap technique with 1000 re-samples [19] . After bootstraping, we used an ANOVA model to compare mean cumulative incidence proportions between pandemic phases, within each age group. We used an alternating logistic regression model (ALR) with an exchangeable log Odds Ratio (OR) to test the intra-household correlation-adjusted association between factors and the seroconversion outcome. Data were analysed with respect to subject age. Initially, four age groups were considered: the children and adolescents (,20 yrs), young adults (20-39 yrs), middle-age adults (40-59 yrs), and elderly adults ($60 yrs). As the cumulative incidence of infection of the second and third groups were very close, both groups were merged into one adults group (20-59 yrs). Therefore we refer further in our study to three age groups: children and adolescents (,20 yrs), adults (20-59 yrs), elderly ($60 yrs). A total of 2,164 individuals from 772 households were enrolled between weeks 30 and 44 in the CoPanFlu-RUN cohort, allowing the collection of 1,932 sera at inclusion (sample 1). During this period, 136 households (17.7% of households) containing 464 individuals (21.4% of individuals) reported at least one case of ILI. Sixty subjects among the 464 individuals (12.9%, belonging to 33 households [24.3%]) were qRT-PCR positive, which documented the pH1N1/2009v infection. No positive qRT-PCR could be detected after week 37 and no ILI was reported after week 40, the end of the epidemic wave. The second follow up serum sample (sample 2) was obtained for 1,759 subjects at least five weeks after the end of the epidemic wave (weeks 45-52) which allowed the constitution of a serobank of 1,687 paired-sera. The profile of the cohort and the major outcomes are displayed in Figure 1 . Details on inclusions and serum sample timing with respect to the circulation of pH1N1/2009v over the island are provided in figure 2 . The socio-demographic and space-time characteristics of the cohort are detailed in Table 1 . Compared to the community of Reunion Island, the sample of 1,687 individuals for whom pairedsera were available, was older (,20 yrs: 27% vs 35%, and $60 yrs: 17,9% vs 11,3%) and composed of a slight excess of females (54.1% vs 51.5%). The imbalance was due to a deficit in subjects aged under 40 years, reflecting men at work and the fact that parents declined the second serum for children younger than five. Baseline-proxy (,pre-epidemic) HIA titers to the pH1N1/ 2009v were measured on sample 1 ( Table 2) , obtained from 249 subjects (103 households) recruited at the very beginning of the investigation during weeks 30 and 31 (phase A, Figure 2 ), when the epidemic activity in the cohort was still very low. Age distribution in this group was similar to that of the whole cohort (data not shown). The overall, the baseline-proxy seroprevalence rate (HIA $1/40), over all ages, was 43.4% (95%CI: 37.4%-49.6%). However the majority of positive sera had low antibody titers, at the cut off value for confirmation (i.e. = 1/40). The proportions of sera with HIA titer .1/40 were 0%, 3.0% and 24.6% in the young, middle-aged and older age groups respectively. These results indicate that pre-epidemic baseline antibody cross reactivity was stronger in the elderly ($60 yrs) and weaker in children and adolescents (,20 yrs) and adults (20-59 yrs), with highly significant differences between age groups (P,0.0001). The reverse cumulative distribution curves of HIA titers are displayed for each age group and for the whole cohort on Figure 3 . The proportion of seropositive sera (HI $1/40) steadily increased during the epidemic unfolding (phase B, W32-39) and in immediate post epidemic period (phase C, W40-44) when it reached its maximum level, then declined in the late post epidemic period (phase D, W45-52). This decline was significant enough to return the reverse cumulative distribution curve to baseline levels in the elderly. The cumulative incidence rates, obtained after subtraction of the age-specific baseline-proxy seroprevalence from the raw seroprevalence at each phase of the epidemic are shown in Table 2 (note that the cumulative incidence rates of infection represented for the group ''all ages'' were standardized according to age structure of the community). The cumulative incidence rates were much higher in children and adolescents (,20 yrs), indicating very active transmission of infection within this age group. As mentioned earlier, cumulative incidence rates peaked in phase C (W40-44), and then declined indicating some lability of the humoral immune response against the pH1N1/2009v. The age-related difference observed in the incidence rates was highly statistically significant (P,0.0001). To estimate more appropriately the decline of antibody titers occurring after the peak of the humoral response to the pH1N1/ 2009v, we considered paired-sera from the group of 264 subjects for whom the first serum sample (sample 1) was obtained just after the epidemic wave (phase C, W40-44), and the corresponding second sample was collected at the end of the survey (phase D, W45-52). Seronegation rates were 27.0% (61/226) for all age groups, 17.4% (12/69) in children and adolescents (,20 yrs), 32.3% (41/127) in adults (20-59 yrs) and 26.7% (8/30) in the elderly ($60 yrs). Differences between the seronegation rates according to age were statistically weakly significant (P = 0.0671). We then considered the 1687 individuals for whom paired sera were available and we measured the seroconversion rates according to age and to the time of first serum sample collection (phase A, B or C). Criteria of seroconversion were defined in the method section. As shown in table 3, there was a sharp decline in seroconversion rates across all the age groups, depending on whether participants were enrolled during phase A, phase B, or phase C (P,0.0001). To interpret these data, one should remember that antibodies at seroprotective levels (HIA $1/40), in serum samples 1 collected during the per epidemic phase B or early post epidemic phase C could represent either base line cross reactive antibodies or rising pH1N1/2009 specific antibodies due to a recent or ongoing infection. This ambiguity could lead to underestimation of the seroconversion rate for subjects enrolled in phases B and C. In order to solve this ambiguity, we specifically considered the group of 249 subjects in whom cross reactive antibodies were detected at the time of phase A (W30-31). The seroconversion rate of this group is the most indicative of the exposure of individuals to the whole epidemic wave. It was the highest (63,2%, P,0.0001) in children and adolescents (,20 yrs), and still significantly high in adults (39.4%, P,0.0001). We then tested in this particular group, the impact of (baseline) pre-epidemic cross reactive antibodies on the rate of seroconversion to pH1N1/2009 (Table 4) . No subject with HIA titer superior to 1/40 had evidence of seroconversion to pH1N1/2009. The seroconversion rate in individuals with a HIA titer equal to 1/40 was linked with age, being more important in children and adolescents (,20 yrs). The highest seroconversion rate (.56%) was registered in subjects with HIA titers inferior to 1/40, particularly for the under 20 years where it reached 85%. Hence, the risk of seroconversion decreased when pre-epidemic HIA titer was high after controlling for age (P,0.0001) (Figure 4) . The multivariate adjusted odds ratio for seroconversion were 0.15 (95%CI: 0.06-0.37, P,0.0001) per two-fold increase in baseline titer, 1.79 (95%CI: 1.23-2.59, P,0.003) per other household members who seroconverted, 5.33 (95%CI: 1.56-19.27, P,0.008) Figure 1 . The cohort profile and major outcomes. Figure 1 details the three phases of the protocol: i) inclusion (weeks 30-44) and serum samples S1 collection; ii) follow up for detection of ILI in households, qRT-PCR on nasal swabs and estimation of cumulative seroincidence rates; iii) end of the study (weeks 45-52) and samples S2 collection. HIA on paired sera (S1+S2) allowed estimating seroconversion rates. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0025738.g001 Bp (baseline-proxy) seroprevalence rates were estimated on weeks 30-31 in each age group. b Cumulative incidence rates measured the raise between raw seroprevalence rates and age-specific baseline-proxy seroprevalence rate. In the group ''All ages'', cumulative incidence rates were standardized according to age structure of the community. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0025738.t002 Data are numbers, percentages (95% confidence intervals) and ALR parameter test P value for comparison of seroconversion proportions according to time of first sample (S1) collection at inclusion, in each age group, after controlling for household selection. In the group ''All ages'', rates of seroconversion were standardized according to age structure of the community. NA: not assessed. Seroconversion was defined as a shift from seronegative at inclusion (i.e. HIA titer ,1/40) to seropositive on follow-up sample, or as a 4-fold increase of reciprocal HIA titer between first and second paired samples for sera tested seropositive on inclusion (i.e. HIA titer $1/40). for age ,20 years (vs age $60 years) and 11.35 (95%CI: 0.41-4.47, P = 0.62) for age 20-60 years (vs age $60 years). The observed and predicted seroconversion rates according to age and baseline HIA titer are displayed Figure 4 . Finally, we considered the 46 subjects who had been infected by the pandemic virus over the course of the study, verified by a positive qRT-PCR nasal swab, and for whom paired sera were available. Initial HIA antibody titers in this group were ,1/40, The CoPanFlu-RUN cohort was set up to conduct a prospective population-based study investigating the herd immunity induced by the 2009 pandemic influenza virus and identifying risk factors for pH1N1/2009v infection from paired sera collected in an entire community. Most works published to date have used either extensive cross-sectional serosurveys on pre-and post-epidemic independent serum samples, the baseline immunity being assessed from stored frozen samples [5, 7, 8] , or non representative adult cohorts (military, health care workers, long-stay patients). Antibody titers were measured by HIA using a cut-off value set at 1/40 as classically recommended. This HIA titer at 1/40 is considered protective, i.e. conferring 50% protection against a viral challenge [20] . Our assay has introduced some changes in the experimental protocol compared to the classic one. The use of a non-inactivated viral antigen, i.e. a native virus, with nondenatured epitopes probably allows detection of antibodies to epitopes of the hemagglutinin not detected in the classic HIA test. This can induce slight differences in the sensitivity of detection of cross-reacting antibodies, but this does not modify the kinetics of Ab and the epidemiological evolution of seroprevalence and does not jeopardize the global comparability of serological results. This is confirmed by the fact that our HI assay detected seroprotective antibody titers in 93.5% and gave evidence seroconversion in 73.9% of qRT-PCR confirmed pH1N1/2009 influenza, all figures close to those reported in the literature [5, 21] . We considered that titers of .1/40, in sera collected from individuals enrolled during weeks 30 and 31 were cross reactive antibodies and not de novo antibodies triggered by the pandemic virus and hence used them as a proxy for baseline pre epidemic immunity. Several arguments support this assumption: i) the first case indicating autochthonous transmission in Reunion Island was reported by the epidemiological surveillance department of La Réunion on 21st July (week 30), i.e. the same day when inclusion started in our study cohort; ii) 7 to 15 days are required to develop an antibody response after viral infection; iii) On weeks 30 and 31, the epidemic activity due to the pandemic virus was very low in our study cohort and it became significant only after week 32. Hence, during weeks 30-31, 103 households were recruited and only 2 households reported ILI cases. Nasal swabs collected from these 2 individuals were tested qRT-PCR negative to the pandemic virus whereas one had evidence of coronavirus and rhinovirus using a multiplex RT-PCR to respiratory viruses (H. Pascalis, manuscript in preparation). In contrast, during weeks 32 to 39, 199 individuals belonging to 99 households reported ILI, among whom 60 individuals had documented infection by the pandemic virus. Our study shows that a substantial proportion of Reunion Island's population had pre-existing immunity to 2009 pandemic influenza virus with the highest baseline-proxy seroprevalence rate observed among adults aged of 60 years or more. Other studies from all continents had also reported high pre-epidemic seropositivity rates among the elderly [5, 6, 8, [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] , though large variations do exist between countries [10, 11, 23, 27, 28] . These cross reactive antibodies have been interpreted as being the residual signature of the remote exposure of these individuals to H1N1 viruses circulating before 1957 [24, 25, 29, 30] . Baseline seropositivity rates that we report in children and in younger adults (i.e. 30%-35%) were notably higher than those reported from other parts of the world [6, 8, 22, 23, [31] [32] [33] . However one should note that these baseline antibodies were of low titer, just at the level of the HIA threshold (i.e. 1/40). Several factors could have contributed to this comparatively high baseline rates found in our study: i) It may reflect the fact that the HI test used in our study was marginally more sensitive than the classic one [17] ; ii) Some individuals may have already been infected with pH1N1/ 2009 virus at weeks 30 and 31 and may have triggered an antibody response to the virus. This hypothesis seems unlikely in view of the arguments presented above and of a similar high proportion of sera titering HIA = 1/40 among 122 sera from adult patients sent for diagnostic purposes to the Regional Hospital microbiology laboratory, during the first half of 2009 (i.e. before the 2009 pandemic) (data not shown). However we cannot formally exclude this hypothesis in view of a recently reported study from Taiwan [11] that showed evidence of subclinical community transmission with proved seroconversion several weeks before report of the first documented case in the island. A similar conclusion was also drawn from Australia [34] ; iii) our serological test might detect cross-reactive antibodies triggered by recent vaccination with trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine as reported [4, [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] . However, seasonal influenza vaccines were of rather limited use in Reunion Island, especially in children and young adults; iv) Finally the high baseline titers may reflect the infectious history of the individuals to seasonal influenza viruses cross antigenic with pH1N1/2009 virus as recently suggested for seasonal 2007 H1N1 infection [40] . This serosurvey indicates that a large fraction of the Reunion Island population was infected with the pandemic virus. Younger people, have paid the main tribute to the epidemic as almost two thirds show evidence of seroconversion, confirming earlier clinical reports from the island [12] and accumulating reports from other countries [17, 32, 41, 42] and suggesting that school children have likely played the central role in the epidemic diffusion of the pandemic virus. Lower infection rates were found in adults and the lowest rates were recorded in the elderly. Based on clinical cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance services [12] , it was estimated that 66,915 persons in Reunion Island who consulted a physician were infected by the pH1N1/2009 virus during the 9 weeks of the epidemic, giving a cumulative attack rate of 8.26%. Taking into account those who did not consult a physician, the number of symptomatic infected persons was estimated to 104,067 (attack rate: 12.85%). In fact, the attack rate of pH1N1/2009 infection in our serosurvey was about 42%-44% at the peak of the antibody response (i.e., weeks 40-44), a figure which is at least 3 to 4 times higher than rates of infection based on clinical cases The wide gap between the two estimates indicates that a large fraction (almost two thirds) of those who got infected by pH1N1/2009 virus escaped medical detection, probably because they developed mild disease or asymptomatic infection, a further indication of the benign nature of the virus, at least at the community level. In England, Baguelin et al. [43] estimated that the cumulative incidence rates of infection by the pandemic virus in children were 20 to 40 times higher than that estimated from clinical surveillance. Our study, as others [6] , indicates that pre-existing cross reactive antibodies to pH1N1/2009 at titers $1/40 prevented from seroconversion in response to the pandemic virus. This level of pre-existing cross reactive immunity likely confers true protection against infection as about two thirds and one third of documented infection (qRT-PCR positive) in our series have occurred in individuals with baseline HIA titers ,1/40 and = 1/ 40 respectively and less than 5% of documented infections occurred in individuals with base line titers .1/40. The protection was effective not only in older adults but also in younger persons. This indicates that protection was conferred not only by baseline cross reactive antibodies triggered by close pH1N1/2009 viruses that circulated before 1957 (as in the elderly), but also by antibodies likely resulting from recent exposure to seasonal influenza epidemics (as shown in younger persons) [40] . The observed seroconversion rates depend on age, after adjusting for baseline pH1N1/2009 titers. The protective role of increasing age might be explained by a stronger cross-immunity in adults and elderly or by a higher exposure of young subjects to the virus during the 2009 epidemic (due to social contacts and mixing patterns). It may also indicate that immune mechanisms other than cross reactive antibodies detected by HIA (i.e. immunity to neuraminidase and conserved T cells epitopes [44] might develop throughout life, providing additional protection from infection or severe disease, especially in the elderly. Interestingly, evidence is seen for a decline in antibody titers, which occurred soon after the passage of the epidemic wave. In paired sera, this decline was significant enough to bring, within a few weeks, almost 27% of sera that tested positive (i.e. HI titers $1/40) in the immediate post epidemic phase to levels under the cut-off value in the second serum sample. This decay accounts for the observation that older adults ($60 yrs) in the study cohort were apparently almost completely spared by the epidemic if one only considers cumulative incidence rates derived from IHA titration on samples 2 (weeks 45-52). In fact, the cumulative incidence rate in older adults measured just after the epidemic peak (i.e. weeks 40-44) was 20.4%. Similar results of early antibody decay were recently reported [10, 45] . More generally, these data show that serosurveys conducted months after passage of the epidemic, likely underestimate the real extent of pH1N1/2009 infection, compared to antibody titration performed earlier, when humoral responses are at their highest level. Whether the decline in antibody titers has functional immunologic consequence to individuals or within the communities warrants further investigation. However, one should note that there was no second epidemic wave in Reunion Island during the subsequent austral winter seasons in 2010 and 2011. Influenza during the 2010 winter was at a level not higher than the usual passages of seasonal flu, though almost two thirds of documented cases in 2010 were also due to pH1N1/2009v [46] . In addition many fewer pandemic virus isolates were noted during the ongoing 2011 austral winter, strongly suggesting that the first epidemic wave had conferred a solid herd immunity, at the community level. Our study has some limitations. The fact that the epidemic progression coincided with the implementation of the prospective study, we were not able to collect, strictly speaking, pre-epidemic sera from the cohort members. Therefore we used as proxy base line seroprevalence data from individuals recruited at the very beginning of the investigation when the epidemic activity in the cohort was very low. This may overestimate the base line immunity if subclinical community transmission had occurred before the first cases of pH1N1/2009 influenza were reported. Antibodies to the pandemic virus were detected by HIA, a test that has a good specificity but a rather low sensitivity [46] . Hence, the threshold of 1/40 may underestimate the number of infected individuals. However, rates of seroconversion, the serologic gold standard test based on paired sera, likely gave the most accurate picture of the pandemic in at the community level in Reunion Island.

What is meant by a protective HIA titer?

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7068164/ SHA: ce358c18aac69fc83c7b2e9a7dca4a43b0f60e2e Authors: Spiteri, Gianfranco; Fielding, James; Diercke, Michaela; Campese, Christine; Enouf, Vincent; Gaymard, Alexandre; Bella, Antonino; Sognamiglio, Paola; Sierra Moros, Maria José; Riutort, Antonio Nicolau; Demina, Yulia V.; Mahieu, Romain; Broas, Markku; Bengnér, Malin; Buda, Silke; Schilling, Julia; Filleul, Laurent; Lepoutre, Agnès; Saura, Christine; Mailles, Alexandra; Levy-Bruhl, Daniel; Coignard, Bruno; Bernard-Stoecklin, Sibylle; Behillil, Sylvie; van der Werf, Sylvie; Valette, Martine; Lina, Bruno; Riccardo, Flavia; Nicastri, Emanuele; Casas, Inmaculada; Larrauri, Amparo; Salom Castell, Magdalena; Pozo, Francisco; Maksyutov, Rinat A.; Martin, Charlotte; Van Ranst, Marc; Bossuyt, Nathalie; Siira, Lotta; Sane, Jussi; Tegmark-Wisell, Karin; Palmérus, Maria; Broberg, Eeva K.; Beauté, Julien; Jorgensen, Pernille; Bundle, Nick; Pereyaslov, Dmitriy; Adlhoch, Cornelia; Pukkila, Jukka; Pebody, Richard; Olsen, Sonja; Ciancio, Bruno Christian Date: 2020-03-05 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2020.25.9.2000178 License: cc-by Abstract: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. Text: In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases. A cluster of pneumonia of unknown origin was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [1] . On 12 January 2020, Chinese authorities shared the sequence of a novel coronavirus termed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) isolated from some clustered cases [2] . Since then, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID -19) . As at 21 February 2020, the virus had spread rapidly mostly within China but also to 28 other countries, including in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region [3] [4] [5] . Here we describe the epidemiology of the first cases of COVID-19 in this region, excluding cases reported in the United Kingdom (UK), as at 21 February 2020. The study includes a comparison between cases detected among travellers from China and cases whose infection was acquired due to subsequent local transmission. On 27 January 2020, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe asked countries to complete a WHO standard COVID-19 case report form for all confirmed and probable cases according to WHO criteria [6] [7] [8] . The overall aim of surveillance at this time was to support the global strategy of containment of COVID-19 with rapid identification and follow-up of cases linked to affected countries in order to minimise onward transmission. The surveillance objectives were to: describe the key epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases detected in Europe; inform country preparedness; and improve further case detection and management. Data collected included demographics, history of recent travel to affected areas, close contact with a probable or confirmed COVID-19 case, underlying conditions, signs and symptoms of disease at onset, type of specimens from which the virus was detected, and clinical outcome. The WHO case definition was adopted for surveillance: a confirmed case was a person with laboratory confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection (ECDC recommended two separate SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests), irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, whereas a probable case was a suspect case for whom testing for SARS-CoV-2 was inconclusive or positive using a pan-coronavirus assay [8] . By 31 January 2020, 47 laboratories in 31 countries, including 38 laboratories in 24 European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries, had diagnostic capability for SARS-CoV-2 available (close to 60% of countries in the WHO European Region), with cross-border shipment arrangements in place for many of those lacking domestic testing capacity. The remaining six EU/EEA countries were expected to have diagnostic testing available by mid-February [9] . As at 09:00 on 21 February 2020, 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the WHO European Region and one of these cases had died [4] . Data on 38 of these cases (i.e. all except the nine reported in the UK) are included in this analysis. The first three cases detected were reported in France on 24 January 2020 and had onset of symptoms on 17, 19 and 23 January respectively [10] . The first death was reported on 15 February in France. As at 21 February, nine countries had reported cases ( Figure) : Belgium (1), Finland (1), France (12), Germany (16), Italy (3), Russia (2), Spain (2), Sweden (1) and the UK (9 -not included further). The place of infection (assessed at national level based on an incubation period presumed to be up to 14 days [11] , travel history and contact with probable or confirmed cases as per the case definition) was reported for 35 cases (missing for three cases), of whom 14 were infected in China (Hubei province: 10 cases; Shandong province: one case; province not reported for three cases). The remaining 21 cases were infected in Europe. Of these, 14 were linked to a cluster in Bavaria, Germany, and seven to a cluster in Haute-Savoie, France [12, 13] . Cases from the Bavarian cluster were reported from Germany and Spain, whereas cases from the Haute-Savoie cluster were reported from France All but two cases were hospitalised (35 of 37 where information on hospitalisation was reported), although it is likely that most were hospitalised to isolate the person rather than because of severe disease. The time from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation (and isolation) ranged between 0 and 10 days with a mean of 3.7 days (reported for 29 cases). The mean number of days to hospitalisation was 2.5 days for cases imported from China, but 4.6 days for those infected in Europe. This was mostly a result of delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany. In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six took only a mean of 2 days to be hospitalised. Symptoms at the point of diagnosis were reported for 31 cases. Two cases were asymptomatic and remained so until tested negative. The asymptomatic cases were tested as part of screening following repatriation and during contact tracing respectively. Of the remaining 29, 20 reported fever, 14 reported cough and eight reported weakness. Additional symptoms reported included headaches (6 cases), sore throat (2), rhinorrhoea (2), shortness of breath (2), myalgia (1), diarrhoea (1) and nausea (1). Fever was reported as the sole symptom for nine cases. In 16 of 29 symptomatic cases, the symptoms at diagnosis were consistent with the case definition for acute respiratory infection [16] , although it is possible that cases presented additional symptoms after diagnosis and these were not reported. Data on pre-existing conditions were reported for seven cases; five had no pre-existing conditions while one was reported to be obese and one had pre-existing cardiac disease. No data on clinical signs e.g. dyspnea etc. were reported for any of the 38 cases. All hospitalised cases had a benign clinical evolution except four, two reported in Italy and two reported in France, all of whom developed viral pneumonia. All three cases who were aged 65 years or over were admitted to intensive care and required respiratory support and one French case died. The case who died was hospitalised for 21 days and required intensive care and mechanical ventilation for 19 days. The duration of hospitalisation was reported for 16 cases with a median of 13 days (range: 8-23 days). As at 21 February 2020, four cases were still hospitalised. All cases were confirmed according to specific assays targeting at least two separate genes (envelope (E) gene as a screening test and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene or nucleoprotein (N) gene for confirmation) [8, 17] . The specimen types tested were reported for 27 cases: 15 had positive nasopharyngeal swabs, nine had positive throat swabs, three cases had positive sputum, two had a positive nasal swab, one case had a positive nasopharyngeal aspirate and one a positive endotracheal aspirate. As at 09:00 on 21 February, few COVID-19 cases had been detected in Europe compared with Asia. However the situation is rapidly developing, with a large outbreak recently identified in northern Italy, with transmission in several municipalities and at least two deaths [18] . As at 5 March 2020, there are 4,250 cases including 113 deaths reported among 38 countries in the WHO European region [19] . In our analysis of early cases, we observed transmission in two broad contexts: sporadic cases among travellers from China (14 cases) and cases who acquired infection due to subsequent local transmission in Europe (21 cases). Our analysis shows that the time from symptom onset to hospitalisation/case isolation was about 3 days longer for locally acquired cases than for imported cases. People returning from affected areas are likely to have a low threshold to seek care and be tested when symptomatic, however delays in identifying the index cases of the two clusters in France and Germany meant that locally acquired cases took longer to be detected and isolated. Once the exposure is determined and contacts identified and quarantined (171 contacts in France and 200 in Germany for the clusters in Haute-Savoie and Bavaria, respectively), further cases are likely to be rapidly detected and isolated when they develop symptoms [15, 20] . In the German cluster, for example, the first three cases detected locally were hospitalised in a mean of 5.7 days, whereas the following six were hospitalised after a mean of 2 days. Locally acquired cases require significant resources for contact tracing and quarantine, and countries should be prepared to allocate considerable public health resources during the containment phase, should local clusters emerge in their population. In addition, prompt sharing of information on cases and contacts through international notification systems such as the International Health Regulations (IHR) mechanism and the European Commission's European Early Warning and Response System is essential to contain international spread of infection. All of the imported cases had a history of travel to China. This was consistent with the epidemiological situation in Asia, and supported the recommendation for testing of suspected cases with travel history to China and potentially other areas of presumed ongoing community transmission. The situation has evolved rapidly since then, however, and the number of countries reporting COVID-19 transmission increased rapidly, notably with a large outbreak in northern Italy with 3,089 cases reported as at 5 March [18, 19] . Testing of suspected cases based on geographical risk of importation needs to be complemented with additional approaches to ensure early detection of local circulation of COVID-19, including through testing of severe acute respiratory infections in hospitals irrespectively of travel history as recommended in the WHO case definition updated on 27 February 2020 [21] . The clinical presentation observed in the cases in Europe is that of an acute respiratory infection. However, of the 31 cases with information on symptoms, 20 cases presented with fever and nine cases presented only with fever and no other symptoms. These findings, which are consistent with other published case series, have prompted ECDC to include fever among several clinical signs or symptoms indicative for the suspected case definition. Three cases were aged 65 years or over. All required admission to intensive care and were tourists (imported cases). These findings could reflect the average older age of the tourist population compared with the local contacts exposed to infection in Europe and do not allow us to draw any conclusion on the proportion of severe cases that we could expect in the general population of Europe. Despite this, the finding of older individuals being at higher risk of a severe clinical course is consistent with the evidence from Chinese case series published so far although the majority of infections in China have been mild [22, 23] . This preliminary analysis is based on the first reported cases of COVID-19 cases in the WHO European Region. Given the small sample size, and limited completeness for some variables, all the results presented should be interpreted with caution. With increasing numbers of cases in Europe, data from surveillance and investigations in the region can build on the evidence from countries in Asia experiencing more widespread transmission particularly on disease spectrum and the proportion of infections with severe outcome [22] . Understanding the infection-severity is critical to help plan for the impact on the healthcare system and the wider population. Serological studies are vital to understand the proportion of cases who are asymptomatic. Hospital-based surveillance could help estimate the incidence of severe cases and identify risk factors for severity and death. Established hospital surveillance systems that are in place for influenza and other diseases in Europe may be expanded for this purpose. In addition, a number of countries in Europe are adapting and, in some cases, already using existing sentinel primary care based surveillance systems for influenza to detect community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. This approach will be used globally to help identify evidence of widespread community transmission and, should the virus spread and containment no longer be deemed feasible, to monitor intensity of disease transmission, trends and its geographical spread. Additional research is needed to complement surveillance data to build knowledge on the infectious period, modes of transmission, basic and effective reproduction numbers, and effectiveness of prevention and case management options also in settings outside of China. Such special studies are being conducted globally, including a cohort study on citizens repatriated from China to Europe, with the aim to extrapolate disease incidence and risk factors for infection in areas with community transmission. Countries together with ECDC and WHO, should use all opportunities to address these questions in a coordinated fashion at the European and global level. provided input to the outline, multiple versions of the manuscript and gave approval to the final draft.

What was time from onset to hospitalisation?

Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in complex humanitarian crises https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7085188/ SHA: d013e42811c6442b184da3b9bbfd9e334031a975 Authors: Poole, Danielle N.; Escudero, Daniel J.; Gostin, Lawrence O.; Leblang, David; Talbot, Elizabeth A. Date: 2020-03-21 DOI: 10.1186/s12939-020-01162-y License: cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Over 168 million people across 50 countries are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2020 [1] . Response to epidemics in complex humanitarian crisessuch as the recent cholera epidemic in Yemen and the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congois a global health challenge of increasing scale [2] . The thousands of Yemeni and Congolese who have died in these years-long epidemics demonstrate the difficulty of combatting even well-known pathogens in humanitarian settings. The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) may represent a still greater threat to those in complex humanitarian crises, which lack the infrastructure, support, and health systems to mount a comprehensive response. Poor governance, public distrust, and political violence may further undermine interventions in these settings. Populations affected by humanitarian crises are expected to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, due to displacement, crowded housing, malnutrition, inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) tools, and stigmatization. Disease outbreaks further reduce access to limited healthcare, which is increasingly disrupted by attacks on health facilities and the persistent overburdening of health systems. These situations escalate both the necessity and the difficulty of delivering accurate and actionable information to potentially affected populations [3] . As the international community responds to SARS-CoV-2, public health authorities in humanitarian crises begin at a disadvantage to enact appropriate infection control to prevent transmission in healthcare settings, identify infectious cases, administer supportive care and novel treatments for the seriously ill, and trace contacts. These standard public health measures are particularly difficult to perform in humanitarian settings. For example, limited public health, laboratory, and primary care services represent a barrier to testing. Providing the limited healthcare worker cadre with appropriate training and personal protective equipment, and ensuring a continuous supply chain for such, is a challenge in all settings, exacerbated in complex humanitarian crises. Frequent displacement and limited contact information may prevent effective contact tracing. Finally, intractable structural challenges such as overcrowding limit the implementation of both quarantine of those exposed and isolation of those who are ill. Given these increased vulnerabilities, humanitarian crises should be viewed as a priority for national and international bodies that seek to combat this unfolding pandemic. Resources must be identified to protect healthcare workers, develop and deploy rapid testing, improve surveillance, and enact quarantine and isolation of contacts and cases. To mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on crisesaffected populations, governments and agencies will implement the familiar, global evidence-based approaches for combatting respiratory viruses. Respiratory hygiene is a highly effective public health intervention, supported by evidence demonstrating that the spread of respiratory viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, can be prevented by hand hygiene, safe cough practice, and social distancing [4] . Hand hygiene is a readily implemented behavior: the distribution of soap to households in humanitarian settings has been shown to increase handwashing by over 30% [5] . Furthermore, hand hygiene is an avenue of agency for protecting one's own health, consistent with the rights to dignity and to fully participate in decisions related to assistance in humanitarian crises. Widespread introduction of alcohol-based hand rubs is also possible in many resource-limited settings, with published protocols for local production [6] . The Sphere Handbook, a collection of rights-based guidelines for humanitarian response, is the foremost authority on minimum standards for humanitarian assistance [7] . However, despite the indisputable evidence for the efficacy of hand hygiene for reducing both bacterial and viral pathogen transmission, humanitarian WASH standards are based on evidence pertaining to the prevention of illnesses transmitted by the faecal-oral route, with the focus on hand hygiene proximate to latrines [5, 8] . And yet, latrines in crisis settings are often shared and distant from residential shelters, conferring a high risk of gender-based violence [9] . Gender-based violence around latrines is an important deterrent for accessing latrine-adjacent handwashing stations, particularly for hand hygiene to prevent respiratory pathogen transmission. Evidence-based guidelines alone in complex humanitarian crises may not suffice during the emergence of the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Without the adaptation of existing standards, mitigation plans will fall short of health and human rights obligations in outbreak response. Crisis-affected community engagement is integral in pandemic planning, in order to maximize the real-world effectiveness of efficacious interventions. Transparent and credible information-sharing mechanisms are increasingly essential when pandemics threaten vulnerable populations [10] . Diplomacy bridging long-standing mistrust of public health and biomedical interventions and facilitating engagement with contentious actors is a necessary component of effective health governance in complex crisis settings [2] . Interventions tailored to the needs of crisis-affected populations, delivered with transparent information, in the context of inclusive governance practices, are urgently needed in the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Where are difficulties are exacerbated during humanitarian crises?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

What did the studies reveal regarding transmission from mothers during perinatal period?

Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors – friend or foe? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3542731/ SHA: f5bdf18567bb3760e1ce05008135f0270badbd5c Authors: Saxena, Manvendra; Van, Thi Thu Hao; Baird, Fiona J.; Coloe, Peter J.; Smooker, Peter M. Date: 2013-01-27 DOI: 10.1099/mic.0.049601-0 License: cc-by Abstract: Over the last century, the successful attenuation of multiple bacterial and viral pathogens has led to an effective, robust and safe form of vaccination. Recently, these vaccines have been evaluated as delivery vectors for heterologous antigens, as a means of simultaneous vaccination against two pathogens. The general consensus from published studies is that these vaccine vectors have the potential to be both safe and efficacious. However, some of the commonly employed vectors, for example Salmonella and adenovirus, often have pre-existing immune responses in the host and this has the potential to modify the subsequent immune response to a vectored antigen. This review examines the literature on this topic, and concludes that for bacterial vectors there can in fact, in some cases, be an enhancement in immunogenicity, typically humoral, while for viral vectors pre-existing immunity is a hindrance for subsequent induction of cell-mediated responses. Text: In the fields of medicine and veterinary medicine, there are numerous live, attenuated bacterial and viral vaccines in use today worldwide. The safety and efficacy of such vaccines is well established and allows further development as vector systems to deliver antigen originating from other pathogens. Various attenuated bacteria, including Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, lactic acid bacteria (LAB), specifically Lactococcus lactis, Mycobacterium, Listeria, Shigella and Salmonella, have been tested for the targeted delivery of heterologous antigens of bacterial, viral and parasitic origin into a variety of animal hosts (Bahey-El-Din et al., 2010; Innocentin et al., 2009; Johnson et al., 2011; Tobias et al., 2008 Tobias et al., , 2010 Tobias & Svennerholm, 2012) . Bacteria such as E. coli and lactic acid bacteria have recently gained favour, as E. coli is a commensal and lactic acid bacteria are present in most fermented food items and are therefore naturally present in the host. They are also a much safer option than traditional attenuated vaccines in children and immunecompromised people. As this review discusses the effects of pre-existing immune responses to attenuated vaccines, further discussion of LAB and E. coli as potential vectors will not be undertaken; however, the reader is directed to several interesting reviews (Bermú dez-Humarán et al., 2011; Wells & Mercenier, 2008) . Intracellular bacteria from the genera Mycobacterium (Guleria et al., 1996) , Listeria (Gentschev et al., 2001) , Shigella (Levine et al., 1997) and Salmonella (Dougan et al., 1987) are considered to be suitable candidates for the delivery of vaccine antigens due to their capability to induce robust T cell immune responses (Alderton et al., 1991; Lo et al., 1999; Mastroeni et al., 2001; Mittrücker & Kaufmann, 2000; Nauciel, 1990) . Salmonella is one genus that has been well examined as a vector, building on the extensive research available on the micro-organism's physiology and pathogenesis (Basso et al., 2000; Killeen & DiRita, 2000; Sirard et al., 1999; Ward et al., 1999) . There exist several commercial vaccines that are used as anti-Salmonella vaccines in humans and animals (e.g. Ty21a for typhoid fever in humans, several Salmonella serovars against salmonellosis in chickens and other animals). The general strategy for vectoring heterologous antigen is depicted in Fig. 1 . The first clinical trial of a recombinant, which was conducted over 20 years ago using an attenuated Salmonella as a delivery vector, led to the widespread testing of this bacterium as a mucosal delivery system for antigens from non-Salmonella pathogens (Dougan et al., 1987) . These studies have demonstrated the utility of live bacteria to deliver expressed antigens and DNA vaccines to the host immune system (Atkins et al., 2006; Husseiny & Hensel, 2008; Jiang et al., 2004; Kirby et al., 2004) . Since then several other intracellular bacterial vectors have been successfully tested for their capability to deliver a variety of antigens from various pathogens, as well as vaccination against cancer. One genus which has been widely tested as vector is Listeria. Listeria species are Gram-positive intracellular food-borne pathogens. The advantages of Listeria are that it can invade a variety of cells, including antigen presenting cells (APCs). After invading the host cell, Listeria resides inside the phagosome; however, it can escape the phagosome with the help of listeriolysin O (LLO; Hly) and reside in the cytoplasm of the cells, thereby efficiently presenting antigen to both CD8 and CD4 T cells (Cossart & Mengaud, 1989; Kaufmann, 1993; Pamer et al., 1997) . Several studies have demonstrated the effectiveness and ease of using Listeria monocytogenes to deliver heterologous vaccine antigens and DNA vaccines Jensen et al., 1997; Johnson et al., 2011; Peters et al., 2003; Shen et al., 1995; Yin et al., 2011) . Similarly, various viral vectors have been successfully tested for their capability to deliver heterologous vaccine antigens, and this generally results in the induction of strong CTL immune responses. In the veterinary field, there are numerous viral vector vaccines that are currently licensed for use in livestock and domesticated animals. These recombinant vaccines are based on both DNA viruses (such as fowlpox virus-based vaccines which target avian influenza virus and fowlpox virus, or vaccinia virusbased vectors against the rabies virus in wildlife) and RNA viruses [such as Newcastle disease virus-based vaccines to be used in poultry or yellow fever virus (YFV)-based vaccines to be used in horses against West Nile virus] (Draper & Heeney, 2010) . Based on the safety record in the veterinary field, many viruses have been studied for human use as a vector in vaccine development (Beukema et al., 2006; Esteban, 2009; Schirrmacher & Fournier, 2009; Stoyanov et al., 2010; Weli & Tryland, 2011) . Amongst them, YFV (YF-17D strain) was the first to be licensed for use in humans, where the cDNAs encoding the envelope proteins of YFV were replaced with the corresponding genes of an attenuated Japanese encephalitis virus strain, SA14-14-2 (Appaiahgari & Vrati, 2010; Rollier et al., 2011) . Poxviruses are also studied extensively as candidate vectors for human use, among which attenuated derivatives of vaccinia virus [such as modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) and New York attenuated vaccinia virus NYVAC strains] are the most promising vectors (Esteban, 2009; Gó mez et al., 2008; Rimmelzwaan & Sutter, 2009 ). They are ideal candidate vectors due to their large DNA-packing capacity and their thermal and genetic stability (Minke et al., 2004) . The NYVAC vector has been shown to induce CD4 + T cell-dominant responses, and MVA induces both CD4 + and CD8 + T cell responses (Mooij et al., 2008) . The adenovirus (Ad) vector is another of the most widely evaluated vectors to date to express heterologous antigens, due to ease of production, safety profile, genetic stability, the ease of DNA genome manipulation, and the ability to stimulate both innate and adaptive immune responses and induce both T and B cell responses (Alexander et al., 2012; Fitzgerald et al., 2003; Gabitzsch & Jones, 2011; Lasaro & Ertl, 2009; Vemula & Mittal, 2010; Weyer et al., 2009) . They have been extensively examined as a delivery vector in several preclinical and clinical studies for infectious diseases such as anthrax, hepatitis B, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1, influenza, measles, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), malaria and tuberculosis M. Saxena and others (Chengalvala et al., 1994; Gao et al., 2006; Hashimoto et al., 2005; Hsu et al., 1992; Limbach & Richie, 2009; Radosevic et al., 2007; Shiver et al., 2002) . However, before vectored vaccines can be used in the human population they need to satisfy several important criteria. Safety is a major concern, as even a low level of toxicity is unacceptable (of course the minor discomfort that accompanies many vaccinations is normal). Secondly, a vaccine should be inexpensive, so that it can be administered to a large population at minimal cost, and this is particularly important in resource-poor countries (Killeen & DiRita, 2000) . Similar constraints apply to veterinary vaccines, with cost often an even more important consideration. Finally, long-lasting cellular and (where appropriate) humoral immune responses to the vectored antigen must be induced following administration of these vaccines, preferably with a single dose (Atkins et al., 2006) . As some of the vectors in use will have been seen by the host immune system prior to vaccination, whether the presence of pre-existing immune responses is detrimental for the further development of a vector-based vaccine scheme, or can augment responses to the vectored antigen, needs to be considered in detail. This is the subject of this review. In discussing the possible effects on pre-existing immunity, the natural immunity to the vector needs to be considered. Therefore, considering a vector such as Salmonella, if a host has previously been infected there will exist robust B and T memory responses, and as such, when a vaccination is delivered, an anamnestic response to the Salmonella antigens will be induced (while the response to the vectored antigen will be a primary response). This will theoretically reduce the exposure of the heterologous antigen to the immune system, as the vector is rapidly cleared. Surprisingly, as will be seen in some of the examples given below, this can have results that differ depending on the magnitude of the response to the vectored antigen. Similarly, for virally vectored antigens, the existence of pre-existing immunity to the vector (particularly neutralizing antibody) will restrict delivery of the virus into cells, thereby effectively reducing the dose of the vectored antigen. Again, this might be expected to result in a reduction in the antigenicity of the vectored antigen. In the case of bacterial vectors, the effect of pre-existing immune responses has only been tested using Salmonella serovars and Listeria spp. Concern that prior immunological experience of the host with either the homologous Salmonella vector strain or a related strain might compromise its ability to deliver heterologous vaccine antigen was first raised in 1987 (Dougan et al., 1987) . Bao and Clements subsequently reported experimental evidence of the consequences of prior exposure of animals to the vector strain (Bao & Clements, 1991) . This work showed that both serum and mucosal antibody responses against the foreign antigen were in fact upregulated in animals with prior exposure to the vector strain. Whittle & Verma (1997) reported similar findings. Mice immunized via the intra-peritoneal route with a Salmonella dublin aroA mutant expressing heterologous antigen after being exposed to the same vector showed a higher immune response to the vectored antigen in comparison to mice without any immunological memory against the vector. Subsequently, several studies have been conducted to examine the effect of pre-existing immunity in the host against Salmonella. These results are summarized in Table 1 . The various reports are contradictory in their findings and seem to paint a rather confusing picture. Some studies concluded that pre-existing immunity against the Salmonella vector leads to stronger immune responses against the delivered antigen (Bao & Clements, 1991; Jespersgaard et al., 2001; Kohler et al., 2000a, b; Metzger et al., 2004; Saxena et al., 2009; Sevil Domènech et al., 2008; Whittle & Verma, 1997) , with others considering pre-existing immunity to be a limiting factor in the long-term use of Salmonella as an efficient vector for antigen delivery (Attridge et al., 1997; Gahan et al., 2008; Roberts et al., 1999; Sevil Domènech et al., 2007; Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003a, b) . A slight majority of the studies listed in Table 1 (10 versus eight) indicate the upregulation of immune responses after animals have been exposed to either homologous or related strains before the delivery of heterologous antigen using a Salmonella vector. A study by Metzger and co-workers on human volunteers using Salmonella Typhi as a vector suggested that there was no change in the T cell immune response against the heterologous antigen in human volunteers who were exposed to empty vector in comparison with volunteers who were immunologically naive of the vector strain (Metzger et al., 2004) . In these subjects, humoral responses were moderately elevated in preexposed individuals. Similarly, Saxena et al. (2009) indicated higher humoral and T cell responses in mice pre-exposed to homologous or heterologous Salmonella strains. The interleukin 4 (IL4) response was significantly higher when the animal host was exposed to the homologous strain, whereas pre-exposure to a related species did not have such an impact on IL4 responses. Conversely interferon (IFN)-c responses were higher, irrespective of the strain to which mice were pre-exposed. This study also indicated that the presence of homologous or heterologous opsonizing antibodies leads to a higher uptake of Salmonella by macrophages in vitro, which may explain the higher immune responses in exposed mice. As may be expected, uptake was higher when homologous sera were used as the opsonin rather than heterologous sera. This is depicted in Fig. 2 . Conversely, there are reports that indicate that pre-existing immunity against the bacterial vector downregulates immune responses against the delivered heterologous antigen using similar or related vectors. Attridge and coworkers reported that the presence of immunity against the bacterial vector prior to the delivery of vectored antigenic Microbiology 159 protein can downregulate immune responses in mice against the delivered antigen (Attridge et al., 1997) . Similar results were reported by Roberts et al. (1999) and Vindurampulle & Attridge (2003a, b) . However, the latter authors found that the hypo-responsiveness could be largely eliminated by exposing animals to the foreign antigen prior to vectorpriming (Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003b) . Unfortunately, this would appear to be impractical for an immunization regimen! A study presented by Gahan et al. (2008) immunized mice with S. Typhimurium expressing C fragment of tetanus toxin antigen from an expression plasmid or as a DNA vaccine. Vaccinated mice developed humoral responses to LPS and tetC (for the plasmid-bearing vaccines). Animals from all groups (including a previously unvaccinated group) were immunized on day 182 with Salmonella expressing tetC. At this time, the anti-LPS and tetC titres were beginning to wane. Fourteen days after the second immunization, the colonization of various mouse organs was assessed. The ability to colonize was found to be significantly reduced in groups that had been previously vaccinated with Salmonella. In view of this finding, it was perhaps not surprising that at day 210 the LPS titres were not significantly different between groups receiving one or two vaccinations. More interestingly, mice that had been primed with Salmonella alone, and then boosted with Salmonella expressing tetC, induced much lower anti-tetC responses than mice that had not been primed. This argues strongly that prior immunological immunity to the vector can seriously dampen subsequent antigen-specific humoral responses. Whether the same is true for cellular responses was not evaluated. Other studies have evaluated cellular responses. A study by Sevil Domènech and colleagues reported that pre-existing anti-vector immunity seriously compromises CD8 + responses in mice when exposed to a similar strain used as vector (Sevil Domènech et al., 2007) . In contrast, another study by the same authors reported that animals exposed to related vectors induce much higher CD8 + responses when compared with animals which do not have any pre-existing Salmonella immunity (Sevil Domènech et al., 2008) . The difference between these two studies was that in the first, the prime and boost were with identical serovars, while in the second study, different serovars were used. This may point to a way of avoiding downregulation of CD8 responses by pre-existing immunity. This is important, as one of the advantages of using Salmonella (an intracellular pathogen) is that strong cellular immune responses can be induced. It must be noted that in the case of Salmonella vaccines, effects other than strictly immunological responses (particularly adaptive responses) should be considered. In the context of innate immunity, it was shown that administration of non-virulent Salmonella to gnobiotic pigs eliminated disease following challenge with a virulent strain (Foster et al., 2003) . Interestingly, protection was not by competitive exclusion, as the virulent strain was in high numbers in the gut but did not distribute systemically. The protection was proposed to be mediated by the infiltration of a large number of polymorphonuclear leukocytes into the gut, and although perhaps impractical as a general prophylactic (as the time between vaccination and infection is short), this may be an option for short-term or perhaps therapeutic vaccination (as reviewed by Foster et al., 2012) . Chickens (Gallus gallus) are a natural animal reservoir for Salmonella, which makes them an important source of Salmonella-associated gastroenteritis in humans. The ability to use oral Salmonella vaccines to immunize against heterologous pathogens would be of enormous benefit to Uptake of STM-1 by J774 macrophages, relative to the highest uptake percentage. X, Opsonized with naive sera; m, opsonized with serum from mice exposed to Salmonella enteriditis; &, opsonized with serum from mice exposed to STM-1. Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors the poultry industry in both broiler and layer flocks. Both vertical and horizontal transmission is associated with Salmonella in chickens (Liljebjelke et al., 2005) . Vertical transmission via in ovo transmission is particularly important, because if there is prior exposure to the vaccine strain, subsequent vaccination using an oral Salmonella vector could be severely compromised. A considerable number of studies on cross-protective immunity and competitive exclusion have been undertaken in chickens. Protective cross-reactive immunity against Salmonella strains has been demonstrated against both homologous and heterologous challenges (Beal et al., 2006) , although cross-serogroup protection was not strong. Furthermore, a recent study reported that pretreatment of newly hatched chickens with different Salmonella strains could produce a complete invasioninhibition effect on any subsequent exposure to both homologous and heterologous strains (Methner et al., 2010) . Pre-exposure with a highly invasive form of Salmonella Enteritidis caused a large influx of heterophils to the caecal mucosa in 1-day-old chicks, and subsequent heterologous caecal colonization was inhibited for a period of 48 h (Methner et al., 2010) . The implications of this kind of colonization-inhibition study on the immunological status of the affected chickens are yet to be fully elucidated. It should be noted that the studies listed in Tables 1 and 2 are controlled laboratory studies, with the possibility of a competitive exclusion component to immunity not discussed. Similarly studies of L. monocytogenes and the effects of preexisting immune responses indicate conflicting results. A study by Bouwer et al. (1999) indicates that pre-existing immune responses against the Listeria vector do not diminish immune responses against the delivered heterologous antigen, and a similar study by Starks et al. (2004) also concluded that prior exposure of mice to the empty Listeria vector did not influence anti-cancer immune responses when a similar mutant was used as a carrier of a melanoma cancer antigen. Similar findings were reported by Whitney et al. (2011) in rhesus macaques in which L. monocytyogens was used as a carrier of gag-HIV antigen. Conversely, studies by Stevens et al. (2005) in which L. monocytogens was used to deliver feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) gag protein and as a carrier of DNA vaccines to vaccinate cats against FIV envelope protein indicated lower immune responses against the delivered antigen in cats exposed to empty Listeria vector in comparison with naive animals (Stevens et al., 2005) . Similar findings have been reported by Tvinnereim et al. (2002) and Leong et al. (2009) . However, taken together, these studies conclude that prior exposure of host animals to empty vector does not abrogate immune responses to the vectored antigen, but only reduces them somewhat. Only the study by Vijh et al. (1999) indicated that exposure to the empty vector may completely abrogate immune responses against the delivered antigens (Vijh et al., 1999) . However, these studies also indicate that downregulation of antigenspecific immune responses is highly dependent on dose and time. Leong et al. (2009) also demonstrated that the negative impact of vector-specific immune responses can also be countered by repeated immunization with the same vaccine and dose; this in effect leads to higher priming of naive T cells against the delivered antigen. Of course, such repeated vaccination may not be practicable in real-world situations. Despite the many advantages which viral vectoring can offer, pre-existing immunity is a major obstacle of many viralvectored vaccines, such as Ad serotype 5 or herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1), where the rate of seroprevalence to these viruses is very high [40-45 % and 70 % (or more) of the US population, respectively] (Hocknell et al., 2002; Pichla-Gollon et al., 2009) . Vector-specific antibodies may impede the induction of immune responses to the vaccine-encoded antigens, as they may reduce the dose and time of exposure of the target cells to the vaccinated antigens (Pichla-Gollon et al., 2009; Pine et al., 2011) . In a large-scale clinical trial (STEP) of an Ad serotype 5 (AdHu5)-based HIV-1 vaccine, the vaccines showed a lack of efficacy and tended to increase the risk of HIV-1 infection in vaccine recipients who had pre-existing neutralizing antibodies to AdHu5 (Buchbinder et al., 2008) . For an HSV-1-based vector vaccine, it has been demonstrated that pre-existing anti-HSV-1 immunity reduced, but did not abolish, humoral and cellular immune responses against the vaccine-encoded antigen (Hocknell et al., 2002; Lauterbach et al., 2005) . However, Brockman and Knipe found that the induction of durable antibody responses and cellular proliferative responses to HSVencoded antigen were not affected by prior HSV immunity (Brockman & Knipe, 2002) . Similarly, pre-existing immunity to poliovirus has little effect on vaccine efficacy in a poliovirus-vectored vaccine (Mandl et al., 2001) . Different effects of pre-existing immunity on the efficacy of recombinant viral vaccine vectors are summarized in Table 2 . There are several approaches to avoiding pre-existing vector immunity, such as the use of vectors derived from nonhuman sources, using human viruses of rare serotypes (Kahl et al., 2010; Lasaro & Ertl, 2009) , heterologous prime-boost approaches (Liu et al., 2008) , homologous reimmunization (Steffensen et al., 2012) and removing key neutralizing epitopes on the surface of viral capsid proteins (Gabitzsch & Jones, 2011; Roberts et al., 2006) . The inhibitory effect of pre-existing immunity can also be avoided by masking the Ad vector inside dendritic cells (DCs) (Steffensen et al., 2012) . In addition, mucosal vaccination or administration of higher vaccine doses can overcome pre-existing immunity problems (Alexander et al., 2012; Belyakov et al., 1999; Priddy et al., 2008; Xiang et al., 2003) . As we search for new vaccine approaches for the array of pathogens for which none is yet available, revisiting proven vaccines and developing these further has gained M. Saxena and others momentum. Hence, attenuated bacteria and viruses which have a long history of efficacy and safety are being brought into use. While very attractive, a common theme in these experimental approaches has been the limitations that preexisting immunity to the vector may pose. However, as this examination of the relevant literature shows, there is a rather confusing picture, with some studies in fact indicating that pre-existing immunity may be a friend, rather than foe. Few studies using viral vectors have reported on the influence of pre-existing immunity on humoral responses. Generally speaking, for bacterial-delivered antigens, the humoral responses were influenced by pre-existing immunity, with slightly more studies finding augmentation rather than diminution. Why is there variation? This may be due to several factors, including the type of Salmonella used and its invasiveness. Dunstan and colleagues tested the ability of six isogenic Salmonella serovar Typhimurium strains harbouring different mutations for their ability to induce immune responses against the C fragment of tetanus toxin and concluded that the strain which had the least ability to colonize Peyer's patches induced the lowest immune responses (Dunstan et al., 1998) . Similarly, the boosting time and nature of the antigen used might be important. Attridge and colleagues indicated the importance of boosting time. In one experiment, boosting mice at 10 weeks led to complete inhibition of antibody responses against the delivered heterologous antigen; however, when the mice were boosted at 4 weeks, the downregulation of antibody responses was not so prominent (Attridge et al., 1997) . A similar study conducted by Kohlers and colleagues shows that boosting at 7 weeks after pre-exposing animals to empty vector leads to lower antigen-specific IgG and secretory IgA responses; however, boosting at 14 weeks leads to higher IgG and secretory IgA responses (Kohler et al., 2000b) . This is in conflict with the above result, although it should be mentioned that they used different Salmonella species. Vindurampulle and Attridge also examined the impact of the Salmonella strain and the nature of the antigens used. In their study, they used S. Dublin and Salmonella Stanley aroA mutants to deliver E. coli K88 and LT-B antigens, and concluded that the effect of pre-existing immunity depends on both the strain used and the type of antigen delivered (Vindurampulle & Attridge, 2003b) . All these studies on the effect of pre-existing immunity discuss the impact on humoral responses. Sevil Domenech and colleagues reported that pre-exposing animals to the homologous Salmonella vector leads to a significant reduction in CD8 + responses; however, exposure of animals to a heterologous strain leads to significantly higher CD8 + responses (Sevil Domènech et al., 2007 , 2008 . Saxena and colleagues also reported that antigenspecific T cell responses were either similar or significantly higher, with no downregulation in T cell responses observed after pre-exposing mice to either homologous or heterologous strains (Saxena et al., 2009) . For viral vectors, the impact of cell-mediated immunity was more pronounced, and as depicted in Table 2 , almost always resulted in a reduction in the subsequent immune response. Presumably this is because viruses will induce neutralizing antibody on the first dose, and in subsequent doses this antibody will limit the number of transduced cells, therefore limiting the responses. This is particularly a problem with a common viral vector such as Ad, where a large proportion of the population will have immunological memory against common serotypes (Lasaro & Ertl, 2009) . As these authors conclude, it will be possible to utilize such vectors only by developing vaccines from alternative serotypes. It may be that a vector such as Pre-existing immunity against vaccine vectors attenuated influenza virus, with the ability to easily develop reassortants, will be useful in this context. In addition, immunological memory in the form of opsonizing antibody certainly plays an important role in the early uptake of Salmonella by macrophages and DC. This may be beneficial, as the live bacterial vector used for delivery purposes harbours mutations in genes encoding proteins responsible for their survival in the animal host. This not only encumbers their ability to cause disease, making them safe live vectors, but also limits the number of replications. The presence of opsonizing antibodies should mean a higher level of bacterial uptake, leading to higher presentation to the immune system and therefore a better immune response. We have previously shown that this is indeed the case (Saxena et al., 2009 ) (depicted in Fig. 2 ). It would be of great benefit to address these issues not only in mice but also in other organisms such as chickens, which are the most likely host to be targeted for the use of live Salmonella vectors, specifically where the vaccines are developed for use in livestock and poultry. To summarize, bacterial vectors such as Salmonella and viral vectors such as Ad show great promise as delivery vehicles for heterologous antigens; however, prior exposure to the vector must be considered. By judicious selection of the strain/serotype it will be possible to avoid the negative effects and it may indeed be possible to positively influence the response, particularly for humoral immunity.

How can vectors for which host has immunity, be used differently to increase the efficacy of vaccination?

Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079962/ SHA: f7cfc37ea164f16393d7f4f3f2b32214dea1ded4 Authors: Jamieson, Amanda M Date: 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0060 License: cc-by Abstract: Recently, two coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, have emerged to cause unusually severe respiratory disease in humans. Currently, there is a lack of effective antiviral treatment options or vaccine available. Given the severity of these outbreaks, and the possibility of additional zoonotic coronaviruses emerging in the near future, the exploration of different treatment strategies is necessary. Disease resilience is the ability of a given host to tolerate an infection, and to return to a state of health. This review focuses on exploring various host resilience mechanisms that could be exploited for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Text: The 21st century was heralded with the emergence of two novel coronaviruses (CoV) that have unusually high pathogenicity and mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) was first identified in 2003 [6] [7] [8] [9] . While there was initially great concern about SARS-CoV, once no new cases emerged, funding and research decreased. However, a decade later Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), also known as HCoV-EMC, emerged initially in Saudi Arabia [3, 10] . SARS-CoV infected about 8000 people, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 10% of those infected [11] . While MERS-CoV is not as widespread as SARS-CoV, it appears to have an even higher mortality rate, with 35-50% of diagnosed infections resulting in death [3, [12] [13] . These deadly betacoronavirus viruses existed in animal reservoirs [4] [5] 9, [14] [15] . Recently, other CoVs have been detected in animal populations raising the possibility that we will see a repeat of these types of outbreaks in the near future [11, [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . Both these zoonotic viruses cause a much more severe disease than what is typically seen for CoVs, making them a global health concern. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV result in severe lung pathology. Many infected patients have acute lung injury (ALI), a condition that is diagnosed based on the presence of pulmonary edema and respiratory failure without a cardiac cause. In some patients there is a progression to the more severe form of ALI, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [21] [22] [23] . In order to survive a given infection, a successful host must not only be able to clear the pathogen, but tolerate damage caused by the pathogen itself and also by the host's immune response [24] [25] [26] . We refer to resilience as the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of pathogens and the immune response to pathogens. A resilient host is able to return to a state of health after responding to an infection [24, [27] [28] . Most currently available treatment options for infectious diseases are antimicrobials, For reprint orders, please contact: [email protected] REviEW Jamieson future science group and thus target the pathogen itself. Given the damage that pathogens can cause this focus on rapid pathogen clearance is understandable. However, an equally important medical intervention is to increase the ability of the host to tolerate the direct and indirect effects of the pathogen, and this is an area that is just beginning to be explored [29] . Damage to the lung epithelium by respiratory pathogens is a common cause of decreased resilience [30] [31] [32] . This review explores some of the probable host resilience pathways to viral infections, with a particular focus on the emerging coronaviruses. We will also examine factors that make some patients disease tolerant and other patients less tolerant to the viral infection. These factors can serve as a guide to new potential therapies for improved patient care. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are typified by a rapid progression to ARDS, however, there are some distinct differences in the infectivity and pathogenicity. The two viruses have different receptors leading to different cellular tropism, and SARS-CoV is more ubiquitous in the cell type and species it can infect. SARS-CoV uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry to cells, while MERS-CoV uses the ectopeptidase DPP4 [33] [34] [35] [36] . Unlike SARS-CoV infection, which causes primarily a severe respiratory syndrome, MERS-CoV infection can also lead to kidney failure [37, 38] . SARS-CoV also spreads more rapidly between hosts, while MERS-CoV has been more easily contained, but it is unclear if this is due to the affected patient populations and regions [3] [4] 39 ]. Since MERS-CoV is a very recently discovered virus, [40, 41] more research has been done on SARS-CoV. However, given the similarities it is hoped that some of these findings can also be applied to MERS-CoV, and other potential emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. Both viral infections elicit a very strong inflammatory response, and are also able to circumvent the immune response. There appears to be several ways that these viruses evade and otherwise redirect the immune response [1, [42] [43] [44] [45] . The pathways that lead to the induction of the antiviral type I interferon (IFN) response are common targets of many viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are contained in double membrane vesicles (DMVs), that prevents sensing of its genome [1, 46] . As with most coronaviruses several viral proteins suppress the type I IFN response, and other aspects of innate antiviral immunity [47] . These alterations of the type I IFN response appear to play a role in immunopathology in more than one way. In patients with high initial viral titers there is a poor prognosis [39, 48] . This indicates that reduction of the antiviral response may lead to direct viral-induced pathology. There is also evidence that the delayed type I IFN response can lead to misregulation of the immune response that can cause immunopathology. In a mouse model of SARS-CoV infection, the type I IFN response is delayed [49] . The delay of this potent antiviral response leads to decreased viral clearance, at the same time there is an increase in inflammatory cells of the immune system that cause excessive immunopathology [49] . In this case, the delayed antiviral response not only causes immunopathology, it also fails to properly control the viral replication. While more research is needed, it appears that MERS has a similar effect on the innate immune response [5, 50] . The current treatment and prevention options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are limited. So far there are no licensed vaccines for SAR-CoV or MERS-CoV, although several strategies have been tried in animal models [51, 52] . There are also no antiviral strategies that are clearly effective in controlled trials. During outbreaks several antiviral strategies were empirically tried, but these uncontrolled studies gave mixed results [5, 39] . The main antivirals used were ribavirin, lopinavir and ritonavir [38, 53] . These were often used in combination with IFN therapy [54] . However, retrospective analysis of these data has not led to clear conclusions of the efficacy of these treatment options. Research in this area is still ongoing and it is hoped that we will soon have effective strategies to treat novel CoV [3,36,38,40, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] . The lack of effective antivirals makes it necessary to examine other potential treatments for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Even if there were effective strategies to decrease viral burden, for these viruses, the potential for new emerging zoonotic CoVs presents additional complications. Vaccines cannot be produced in time to stop the spread of an emerging virus. In addition, as was demonstrated during SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks, there is always a challenge during a crisis situation to know which Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses REviEW future science group www.futuremedicine.com antiviral will work on a given virus. One method of addressing this is to develop broad-spectrum antivirals that target conserved features of a given class of virus [65] . However, given the fast mutation rates of viruses there are several challenges to this strategy. Another method is to increase the ability of a given patient to tolerate the disease, i.e., target host resilience mechanisms. So far this has largely been in the form of supportive care, which relies on mechanical ventilation and oxygenation [29, 39, 66] . Since SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered relatively recently there is a lack of both patient and experimental data. However, many other viruses cause ALI and ARDS, including influenza A virus (IAV). By looking at data from other high pathology viruses we can extrapolate various pathways that could be targeted during infection with these emerging CoVs. This can add to our understanding of disease resilience mechanisms that we have learned from direct studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Increased understanding of host resilience mechanisms can lead to future host-based therapies that could increase patient survival [29] . One common theme that emerges in many respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is that much of the pathology is due to an excessive inflammatory response. A study from Josset et al. examines the cell host response to both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and discovered that MERS-CoV dysregulates the host transcriptome to a much greater extent than SARS-CoV [67] . It demonstrates that glucocorticoids may be a potential way of altering the changes in the host transcriptome at late time points after infection. If host gene responses are maintained this may increase disease resilience. Given the severe disease that manifested during the SARS-CoV outbreak, many different treatment options were empirically tried on human patients. One immunomodulatory treatment that was tried during the SARS-CoV outbreak was systemic corticosteroids. This was tried with and without the use of type I IFNs and other therapies that could directly target the virus [68] . Retrospective analysis revealed that, when given at the correct time and to the appropriate patients, corticosteroid use could decrease mortality and also length of hospital stays [68] . In addition, there is some evidence that simultaneous treatment with IFNs could increase the potential benefits [69] . Although these treatments are not without complications, and there has been a lack of a randomized controlled trial [5, 39] . Corticosteroids are broadly immunosuppressive and have many physiological effects [5, 39] . Several recent studies have suggested that other compounds could be useful in increasing host resilience to viral lung infections. A recent paper demonstrates that topoisomerase I can protect against inflammation-induced death from a variety of viral infections including IAV [70] . Blockade of C5a complement signaling has also been suggested as a possible option in decreasing inflammation during IAV infection [71] . Other immunomodulators include celecoxib, mesalazine and eritoran [72, 73] . Another class of drugs that have been suggested are statins. They act to stabilize the activation of aspects of the innate immune response and prevent excessive inflammation [74] . However, decreasing immunopathology by immunomodulation is problematic because it can lead to increased pathogen burden, and thus increase virus-induced pathology [75, 76] . Another potential treatment option is increasing tissue repair pathways to increase host resilience to disease. This has been shown by bioinformatics [77] , as well as in several animal models [30-31,78-79]. These therapies have been shown in cell culture model systems or animal models to be effective, but have not been demonstrated in human patients. The correct timing of the treatments is essential. Early intervention has been shown to be the most effective in some cases, but other therapies work better when given slightly later during the course of the infection. As the onset of symptoms varies slightly from patient to patient the need for precise timing will be a challenge. Examination of potential treatment options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV should include consideration of host resilience [29] . In addition to the viral effects, and the pathology caused by the immune response, there are various comorbidities associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that lead to adverse outcomes. Interestingly, these additional risk factors that lead to a more severe disease are different between the two viruses. It is unclear if these differences are due to distinct populations affected by the viruses, because of properties of the virus themselves, or both. Understanding these factors could be a key to increasing host resilience to the infections. MERS-CoV patients had increased morbidity and mortality if they were obese, immunocompromised, diabetic or had cardiac disease [4, 12] . REviEW Jamieson future science group Risk factors for SARS-CoV patients included an older age and male [39] . Immune factors that increased mortality for SARS-CoV were a higher neutrophil count and low T-cell counts [5, 39, 77] . One factor that increased disease for patients infected with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV was infection with other viruses or bacteria [5, 39] . This is similar to what is seen with many other respiratory infections. A recent study looking at malaria infections in animal models and human patients demonstrated that resilient hosts can be predicted [28] . Clinical studies have started to correlate specific biomarkers with disease outcomes in ARDS patients [80] . By understanding risk factors for disease severity we can perhaps predict if a host may be nonresilient and tailor the treatment options appropriately. A clear advantage of targeting host resilience pathways is that these therapies can be used to treat a variety of different infections. In addition, there is no need to develop a vaccine or understand the antiviral susceptibility of a new virus. Toward this end, understanding why some patients or patient populations have increased susceptibility is of paramount importance. In addition, a need for good model systems to study responses to these new emerging coronaviruses is essential. Research into both these subjects will lead us toward improved treatment of emerging viruses that cause ALI, such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The author has no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript. • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus are zoonotic coronaviruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. • Antivirals have limited effects on the course of the infection with these coronaviruses. • There is currently no vaccine for either severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. • Host resilience is the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of an infection and return to a state of health. • Several pathways, including control of inflammation, metabolism and tissue repair may be targeted to increase host resilience. • The future challenge is to target host resilience pathways in such a way that there are limited effects on pathogen clearance pathways. Future studies should determine the safety of these types of treatments for human patients. Papers of special note have been highlighted as:

How does cell-entry differ between SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV?

Design, Synthesis, Evaluation and Thermodynamics of 1-Substituted Pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]Pyridine Derivatives as Cysteine Protease Inhibitors https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3734177/ SHA: ee8483f8f2cc5fe38be4e565eae3af9d0bb8220b Authors: Khan, Mohd Sajid; Baig, Mohd Hassan; Ahmad, Saheem; Siddiqui, Shapi Ahmad; Srivastava, Ashwini Kumar; Srinivasan, Kumar Venkatraman; Ansari, Irfan A. Date: 2013-08-05 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0069982 License: cc-by Abstract: Targeting papain family cysteine proteases is one of the novel strategies in the development of chemotherapy for a number of diseases. Novel cysteine protease inhibitors derived from 1-pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine representing pharmacologically important class of compounds are being reported here for the first time. The derivatives were initially designed and screened in silico by molecular docking studies against papain to explore the possible mode of action. The molecular interaction between the compounds and cysteine protease (papain) was found to be very similar to the interactions observed with the respective epoxide inhibitor (E-64c) of papain. Subsequently, compounds were synthesized to validate their efficacy in wet lab experiments. When characterized kinetically, these compounds show their K(i) and IC(50) values in the range of 13.75 to 99.30 µM and 13.40 to 96.50 µM, respectively. The thermodynamics studies suggest their binding with papain hydrophobically and entropically driven. These inhibitors also inhibit the growth of clinically important different types of Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria having MIC(50) values in the range of 0.6–1.4 µg/ml. Based on Lipinski’s rule of Five, we also propose these compounds as potent antibacterial prodrugs. The most active antibacterial compound was found to be 1-(2-pyridyl)-3-(2-hydroxyphenyl)imidazo[1,5-a]pyridine (3a). Text: Cysteine-protease inhibitors (CPI) have gained considerable attention over the last couple of decades and many classes of compounds are currently in human clinical trials for a number of diseases. Interest in papain family cysteine proteases as chemotherapeutic targets is derived from the recognition that they are critical to the life cycle or pathogenicity of many microorganisms. The cysteine proteases from Streptococcus sp. (streptopain) [1] , Staphylococcus sp. (staphopain) [2] , Plasmodium falciparum (falcipain-1, -2, and -3) and Trypanosoma cruzi (cruzipain) [3] are some of the most widely studied members of papain family which have been reported to be linked with severity of infection and various pathological conditions caused by these microorganisms. The activation of the kallikrein-kinin pathway, which could be activated by more than sixteen bacterial proteases, is a mechanism that some pathogens exploit to ensure that there is a supply of nutrients to the site of infection by increasing vascular permeability. This has been shown to occur in infections with several microbial species, including Pseudomonas, Serratia, Clostridium, Candida, Bacteroides, Porphyromonas and Staphylococcus sp. [4] . Many bacteria secrete several nonspecific proteases e.g. Pseudomonas, Serratia, Streptococcus, Staphylococcus and Bacteroides sp. have potent metallo-, cysteine and serine proteases with broad ranges of activities [5] . The critical role of bacterial proteases in virulence was successfully demonstrated by eliminating the proteaseencoding gene in P. gingivalis [6] . Recently described cystatin superfamily of proteins comprises both eukaryotic and prokaryotic cysteine protease inhibitors [7] . Human cystatins C, D and S, rat cystatins A and S, chicken cystatin and oryza cystatin have been reported to inhibit the replication of certain viruses and bacteria [8] although it has not yet been directly demonstrated that these effects are due to the protease inhibitory capacity of the cystatins [9] . The key role of cysteine proteases in microbial infections, coupled with the relative lack of redundancy compared to mammalian systems has made microbial proteases attractive targets for the development of novel chemotherapeutic approaches [10, 11] . Imidazopyridine ring systems represent an important class of compounds not only for their theoretical interest but also from a pharmacological point of view. They have been shown to possess a broad range of useful pharmacological activities [12] including antigastric, antisecretory, local anesthetic, antiviral, antianxiety, antibacterial, antifungal, antihelminthic, antiprotozoal, anticonvulsant, gastrointestinal, antiulcer (Zolmidine), anxiolytic (Alpidem), hypnotic (Zolpidem) and immunomodulatory [13] . The nature and the position of the substituents on the pyridinic moiety influence these pharmacological activities. These imidazopyridine heterocyclic structures form part of the skeleton of natural alkaloids, neuromuscular blocking agents [14] , reversible inhibitors of the H + , K + -ATPase enzymes with a potent antisecretory activity, and are known to be sedative hypnotics of the nervous system [15] . In this study, we have proposed kinetically and thermodynamically characterized 1-substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives as a potent and novel cysteine protease inhibitors which also acts as antibacterial agents. The crystal structure of papain was extracted from Protein Data Bank (PDB code: 1PE6) [16] . All the water molecules and heteroatoms were removed and hydrogen atoms were added to the protein. CharMm forcefield [17] was applied and the structure was subjected to energy minimization for 1000 steps using steepest descent method. The chemical structures of all the synthesized compounds were generated using chemdraw and were subsequently converted into 3D format using CORINA. A series of docking experiments were carried out with all the designed 1substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives against papain using AutoDock Tools 4.0 [18] for possible cysteine-protease inhibitory activities. The compounds were selected on the basis of their binding energies and those reflecting good binding affinity were further analyzed on in silico platform. As a parameter for the molecular docking, the Lamarckian genetic algorithm, a combination between the genetic algorithm and the local search Pseudo-Solis and Wets algorithm, was employed. A grid box of 60660660 Å was generated around active site of papain making sure those inhibitors can freely rotate inside the grid. The number of docking runs was set to 10. Each docking was repeated five times, having in the end a total of 50 docking runs, to check the precision of results. The finally obtained docked complexes were subsequently visualized using PyMol [19] . The work was further authenticated in the wet lab after its detailed analysis on in silico platform. The designed derivatives were filtered by Lipinski's ''Rule of five'' that sets the criteria for drug-like properties. Drug likeness is a property that is most often used to characterize novel lead compounds [20] . According to this rule, poor absorption is expected if MW .500, log P.5, hydrogen bond donors .5, and hydrogen bond acceptors .10 [21] . In silico absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) properties of these derivatives were also predicted using following online bioinformatics tools. N http://www.organic-chemistry.org. N http://mobyle.rpbs.univ-paris-diderot.fr/cgi-bin/portal. py? Form = admetox N https://secure.chemsilico.com/pages/submit.php The above study gave us an idea about the existence of possible mutagenic and tumorigenic properties in synthesized compounds. The result obtained helped us to screen out the synthesized compounds for their further usage as potent leads. Based on the results of docking studies, ten derivatives of 1pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine were synthesized according to Siddiqui et al., 2006 [22] which are named as follows: 1- The capacity of the 1-pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives to inhibit cysteine proteases was tested using papain as the model enzyme. The proteolytic activity of the reaction mixtures was determined using Bz-DL-Arg-pNA as the chromogenic substrate [23] . To solutions of active papain (final concentration: 0.05 mM) were added concentrated solutions of the different derivatives to final concentrations of 0.2 mM. After incubation for 30 min at 37uC, the substrate solution was added and after a further incubation for 20 min the reaction was stopped by the addition of 5% trichloric acid (TCA) acidified with 2.25% HCl and the absorbance of the reaction mixture was determined at a wavelength of 410 nm by Microplate Manager 4.0 (Bio-Rad laboratories). The same procedure was used at 32uC and 42uC for thermodynamics studies. The kinetic parameters for the substrate hydrolysis were determined by measuring the initial rate of enzymatic activity. The inhibition constant K i was determined by Dixon method [24] and also by the Lineweaver-Burk equation. The K m value was calculated from the double-reciprocal equation by fitting the data into the computer software Origin 6.1. The Lineweaver-Burk plot was used to determine the types of inhibition. For the kinetic analysis and rate constant determinations, the assays were carried out in triplicate, and the average value was considered throughout this work. Temperature dependence of the inhibition constants was used to determine the thermodynamic parameters. Changes in enthalpy (DH) were determined from the Van't Hoff plots by using the equation, Where DH is enthalpy change, R is gas constant, DS is entropy change and T is the absolute temperature. The entropy change was obtained from the equation, The assay was done at different temperatures (32uC, 37uC, 42uC) calculating various K i of 1-pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives with papain as model enzyme. The disk diffusion method [25] was used for the preliminary antibacterial evaluation of 1-pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives. The MIC 50 of these derivatives, showing inhibition in the preliminary tests, were further determined by the microtitre plate technique using micro dilution method [26] . In brief, the bacterial strains (S. aureus, P. vulgaris, Group D Streptococci, Bacillus sp., E. coli, P. aeruginosa and S. morganii)) were grown and diluted to 2610 5 colony-forming units (CFU)/ml in sodium phosphate buffer (SPB) containing 0.03% Luria-Bertani (LB) broth. The synthesized derivatives were dissolved in DMSO and their serial dilution was performed in 50 mL of LB medium in 96-well microtitre plate to achieve the required concentrations (0.1-10 mg/ml) with bacterial inoculums (5610 4 CFU per well). DMSO was taken as negative control and Ceftriaxone and clotrimazole were taken as positive control. After incubation at 37uC overnight, the MICs were taken as the lowest inhibitor concentration at which the bacterial growth was inhibited. The average of three values was calculated and that was the MIC for the test material and bacterial strain. For the agar plate count method [27] , 25 mL aliquots of bacteria at 1610 5 CFU/ml in SPB containing 0.03% LB broth were incubated with 25 mL of diluted compounds for 2 h at 37uC. The mixtures of bacteria and compounds were serially diluted 10-fold with SPB and plated on LB plates that were incubated at 37uC overnight. Bacterial colonies were enumerated the following day. After having determined the MICs, bacterial strains from the wells of the microtitre plate with no visible bacterial growth were removed for serial sub cultivation of 2 ml into another new microtitre plate containing 100 ml of broth per well and further incubated for 24 h. The lowest concentration with no visible growth was defined as MBC [28], indicating 99.5% killing of the original inoculum. The absorbance of each well was measured at a wavelength of 620 nm by Microplate Manager 4.0 (Bio-Rad laboratories) and compared with a blank. Solvent (DMSO) was used as a negative control. Three replicates were done for each compound and experiment was repeated two times. Bacteria use their cysteine proteases for pathogenecity as could be depicted from the structure of Cif homolog in Burkholderia pseudomallei (CHBP) which reveals a papain-like fold and a conserved Cys-His-Gln catalytic triad [29] . It has been proven that bacterial pathogens have a unique papain-like hydrolytic activity to block the normal host cell cycle progression as the core of an avirulence (Avr) protein (AvrPphB) from the plant pathogen Pseudomonas syringae, resembles the papain-like cysteine proteases. The similarity of this AvrPphB protein with papain includes the catalytic triad of Cys-98, His-212, and Asp-227 in the AvrPphB active site [30] . Turk et al. have proposed, on the basis of kinetic and structural studies, that papain has seven subsites at the active site but only five subsites are important which can bind to an amino acid residue of the substrate [31] . A variety of intermediates are generated when papain reacts with substrate or an inhibitor [2] . Like serine proteases, cysteine proteases tend to have relatively shallow, solvent-exposed active sites that can accommodate short substrate/inhibitor segments of protein loops (e.g. from endogenous inhibitors such as cystatins) or strands. The inhibitor Table 3 . Name, Structure, IC50 & K i of 1-substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives against cysteine protease papain. Type of inhibition Ki (mM) IC 50 (mM) Non-Competitive 13.7 13.4 compound bound to protease with a combination of hydrogen bonds and hydrophobic interactions. As a part of our investigation in developing novel and efficient cysteine protease inhibitors, ten 1-substituted pyridylimidazo [1,5a] pyridine derivatives (3a-j) were primarily designed and screened on the basis of their docking energies against papain to elucidate their possible mode of action. It was found that these compounds were specific inhibitors of cysteine protease, papain and didn't show inhibition against other types of proteases like serine, aspartic or metalloproteases. They are specific for CA clan of cysteine protease and didn't show any significant inhibition against other clans of cysteine proteases. These new compounds were devised based on the knowledge of ability of a protein to alter its conformation to accommodate a binding ligand and enabled us to directly compare the relative positions of the residue in the binding pocket. Molecular docking study provided the structural insight into the binding of these compounds (3a-j) (Figure 1 ) within the active site of papain which mainly consist of a catalytic triad of Cys 25, His 159 and Asp 175 [32] . Moreover, role of other residues present in the active site of papain, playing important role in the accommodation of compounds have also been revealed. Initially, docking was performed with all the designed compounds (3a-j) against papain, a known cysteine protease enzyme and in this context, we observed very interesting results where our proposed inhibitors (3a-j) take advantage of aromatic and hydrophilic residues by making a variety of interactions with target enzyme. Although, compounds 3e-j gave significant results when docked with papain but during evaluation of antibacterial properties in wet lab experiments, they gave insignificant results (data not shown). Therefore, only four compounds were considered for discussion and further experiments like kinetic and thermodynamic studies to characterize these compounds as potent pro-inhibitors, were performed (3a-d). The findings of the above study have shown that the molecular interactions between the compounds 3a-d and papain were very similar to the interactions observed for E-64c, a derivative of naturally occurring epoxide inhibitor (E-64c) (Figure 1 ) of cysteine proteases [31, 32] , with papain; especially with regard to the hydrogen bonding and hydrophobic interactions of the ligands with conserved residues in the catalytic binding site (Figure 2 A-D). Several papain residues participated in hydrophobic interactions with compounds 3a-d, including Gln19, Cys25, Gly66 and Asp158. The pyridine moieties of compounds 3a-d interact with S2 site of papain which includes (Tyr61, Asn64, Gly65 & Tyr67) amino acids (Figure 2 A-D) . The active site residues that were found to be key player in the interaction of compounds within the active site (mostly through hydrophobic interactions) were Cys25, Tyr61, His159 and Trp177, while Trp177, Gln19 were found to me making hydrogen bonds only with compound 3a. Besides this many other residues were also found to be actively involved ( Table 1) . Furthermore, the binding energies for the compound 3a, 3b, 3c and 3d with papain were found to be 26.12, 25.76, 26.84 and 25.62 Kcal/mol respectively, which were in great agreement with our wet lab experiments; shall be discussed later ( Table 1) . This confirmed the accuracy of our docking protocol. Since, the binding energy is a direct measure of strength of interaction and our compounds 3a-d showed stronger binding within the active site of papain in comparison to the inhibitor E-64c (DG: 24.04 Kcal/mol), therefore, the results suggest that these 1-substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives (3ad) could be potent inhibitors of papain like cysteine proteases. The in silico interaction of compounds 3a-d with papain, which were observed as discussed above, was validated with wet lab Table 5 . Prediction of antibacterial compounds as drugs (http://www.organic-chemistry.org). Table 2) . Interestingly, the observed in silico binding energies for the compounds 3a-d against papain were found to be in great agreement (standard error 62 Kcal/mol) with the value of free energy of binding (DG) observed during thermodynamics studies ( Table 1 and 2) . Similarly, enthalpy change (DH) of the binding was negative whereas entropy (DS) change of the binding was positive which indicated the exothermic and entropically driven nature of binding. This pattern of temperature dependence is characteristic of hydrophobic interaction [33] . As discussed earlier that all the compounds (3a-d) were found to interact with the active site residues of papain through hydrophobic interactions at most instances during in silico studies, the same was observed by the analysis of Van't Hoff plots for all the proposed inhibitors at three different temperatures (32uC, 37uC and 42uC) in wet lab experiments ( Figure 3) . This proves the importance of these types of interactions in the positioning of compounds within the active site. Hence, thermodynamics as well as in silico study reveals that hydrophobic interactions favor binding of these proposed inhibitors with papain like cysteine proteases. Further wet lab results proposed the non competitive interaction of compounds (3a, 3c & 3d) with papain except for compound 3b which showed competitive interaction. In sum up, the above results of molecular docking studies and thermodynamic analysis of compounds 3a-d with papain showed that these compounds have the potential to be novel and unique cysteine protease inhibitors. In the current study, the cysteine protease inhibitory activity of synthesized derivatives of 1-substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a] pyridine (3a-d)) was also performed against papain and the inhibition constants (K i ) for the above said enzyme were observed to be 13.70, 23.20, 90.00 and 99.30 mM for compounds 3a, 3b, 3c and 3d respectively ( Table 3) . Furthermore, the calculated IC 50 values were also found to be 13.40, 21.17, 94.50 and 96.50 mM for compounds 3a, 3b, 3c and 3d respectively ( Table 3) . Except compound 3b, rest of the compounds showed non competitive, reversible inhibitions but all the compounds irrespective of types of binding, showed hydrophobic and entropically driven interaction. These derivatives (3a-j) were eventually evaluated for their antibacterial activities against seven clinically important microbes (S. aureus, P. vulgaris, Group D Streptococci, Bacillus sp., E. coli, P. aeruginosa and S. morganii). Here, we are showing the data of only four compounds (3a-d) because of their significant results ( Table 4 ). All the compounds strictly followed the pattern of antiprotease activity towards bacterial growth except P. vulgaris and E. coli at one instance each (Table 4) . Since compound 3c & 3d do not have much difference in their IC50 values (3c-94.5 mM and 3d-96.5 mM) against cysteine protease, papain and hence in antibacterial activity in all instances except one. It might be random due to so close in IC50 values. Compounds 3c & 3d are having much difference in their IC50 values (3b-21.17 mM and 3c-94.5 mM) and they showed exact pattern for their antibacterial activity for all microbes except for E. coli at one instance. Although, E. coli does contain six major cysteine proteases but none belong to the CA clan of papain. It is argued that these compounds also inhibited the cysteine proteases of other clan than papain but with low efficacy. Since, pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives is absolutely new scaffold towards antibacterial agents and hence, not any standard compound(s) of same scaffold is available for reference. So, Clotrimazole (1-[(2-chlorophenyl)(diphenyl)methyl]-1H-imidazole), an imidazole derivatives and Ceftriaxone (third-generation cephalosporin antibiotic with broad spectrum activity against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria) have been used as positive control whereas DMSO has been used as negative control. All the above mentioned bacterial species have been shown to secrete certain cysteine proteases which play very important role in the pathogenecity of different diseases caused by these microorganisms. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MICs) of compounds (3a-d) ( Table 4 ) against all tested bacteria except E. coli and P. vulgaris, were observed to be in great agreement with their respective inhibition constant (K i )/IC 50 values against papain (Table 3 ) which clearly indicates that these compounds have the potential to inhibit the papain like cysteine proteases of these pathogens. The partition coefficient (logP) is a well-established measure of the compound's lipophilicity. The distribution of calculated logP (cLogP) values of a majority of drugs in the market is in the range of zero to five. All the compounds studied except 3d, showed good agreement with the criteria laid down for the prediction of a compound to be a potential drug ( Table 5 ). All the compounds do not show any threat against toxicity risk assessment except compound 3d which showed threat as tumorogenic effect due to the presence of isobutyl group. Among all the tested compounds, compound 3a was the most potent whose MIC was the lowest among all the tested compounds and showed maximum drug score and positive values for drug likeness. In summary, the results of the present study have established that 1-substituted pyridylimidazo[1,5-a]pyridine derivatives could be candidate for novel and potent inhibitors of papain like cysteine proteases, which play deleterious role in the progression of different diseases caused by diverse microorganisms. Therefore, this group of compounds could be the subject of future research to confront the challenges with resistant microorganisms that is a major threat globally. File S1 Types of inhibitions with Ki (Compounds 3a-3d). (DOC)

What could be novel candidates as potent inhibitors of papain like cysteine proteases in resistant microorganisms?

Bioinformatics analysis of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus genome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3377956/ SHA: eff26d8739498efca2d32fe2e66cdbebf0569c50 Authors: Tian, Xiao-ting; Li, Bao-yu; Zhang, Liang; Jiao, Wen-qiang; Liu, Ji-xing Date: 2011-11-01 DOI: 10.1186/1743-422x-8-494 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), as the pathogeny of Rabbit haemorrhagic disease, can cause a highly infectious and often fatal disease only affecting wild and domestic rabbits. Recent researches revealed that it, as one number of the Caliciviridae, has some specialties in its genome, its reproduction and so on. RESULTS: In this report, we firstly analyzed its genome and two open reading frameworks (ORFs) from this aspect of codon usage bias. Our researches indicated that mutation pressure rather than natural is the most important determinant in RHDV with high codon bias, and the codon usage bias is nearly contrary between ORF1 and ORF2, which is maybe one of factors regulating the expression of VP60 (encoding by ORF1) and VP10 (encoding by ORF2). Furthermore, negative selective constraints on the RHDV whole genome implied that VP10 played an important role in RHDV lifecycle. CONCLUSIONS: We conjectured that VP10 might be beneficial for the replication, release or both of virus by inducing infected cell apoptosis initiate by RHDV. According to the results of the principal component analysis for ORF2 of RSCU, we firstly separated 30 RHDV into two genotypes, and the ENC values indicated ORF1 and ORF2 were independent among the evolution of RHDV. Text: Synonymous codons are not used randomly [1] . The variation of codon usage among ORFs in different organisms is accounted by mutational pressure and translational selection as two main factors [2, 3] . Levels and causes of codon usage bias are available to understand viral evolution and the interplay between viruses and the immune response [4] . Thus, many organisms such as bacteria, yeast, Drosophila, and mammals, have been studied in great detail up on codon usage bias and nucleotide composition [5] . However, same researches in viruses, especially in animal viruses, have been less studied. It has been observed that codon usage bias in human RNA viruses is related to mutational pressure, G +C content, the segmented nature of the genome and the route of transmission of the virus [6] . For some vertebrate DNA viruses, genome-wide mutational pressure is regarded as the main determinant of codon usage rather than natural selection for specific coding triplets [4] . Analysis of the bovine papillomavirus type 1 (BPV1) late genes has revealed a relationship between codon usage and tRNA availability [7] . In the mammalian papillomaviruses, it has been proposed that differences from the average codon usage frequencies in the host genome strongly influence both viral replication and gene expression [8] . Codon usage may play a key role in regulating latent versus productive infection in Epstein-Barr virus [9] . Recently, it was reported that codon usage is an important driving force in the evolution of astroviruses and small DNA viruses [10, 11] . Clearly, studies of synonymous codon usage in viruses can reveal much about the molecular evolution of viruses or individual genes. Such information would be relevant in understanding the regulation of viral gene expression. Up to now, little codon usage analysis has been performed on Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), which is the pathogen causing Rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD), also known as rabbit calicivirus disease (RCD) or viral haemorrhagic disease (VHD), a highly infectious and often fatal disease that affects wild and domestic rabbits. Although the virus infects only rabbits, RHD continues to cause serious problems in different parts of the world. RHDV is a single positive stranded RNA virus without envelope, which contains two open reading frames (ORFs) separately encoding a predicted polyprotein and a minor structural protein named VP10 [12] . After the hydrolysis of self-coding 3C-like cysteinase, the polyprotein was finally hydrolyzed into 8 cleavage products including 7 nonstructural proteins and 1 structural protein named as VP60 [13, 14] . Studies on the phylogenetic relationship of RHDVs showed only one serotype had been isolated, and no genotyping for RHDV was reported. It reported that the VP10 was translated with an efficiency of 20% of the preceding ORF1 [15] . In order to better understand the characteristics of the RHDV genome and to reveal more information about the viral genome, we have analyzed the codon usage and dinucleotide composition. In this report, we sought to address the following issues concerning codon usage in RHDV: (i) the extent and causes of codon bias in RHDV; (ii) A possible genotyping of RHDV; (iii) Codon usage bias as a factor reducing the expression of VP10 and (iiii) the evolution of the ORFs. The 30 available complete RNA sequences of RHDV were obtained from GenBank randomly in January 2011. The serial number (SN), collection dates, isolated areas and GenBank accession numbers are listed in Table 1 . To investigate the characteristics of synonymous codon usage without the influence of amino acid composition, RSCU values of each codon in a ORF of RHDV were calculated according to previous reports (2 Sharp, Tuohy et al. 1986 ) as the followed formula: Where g ij is the observed number of the ith codon for jth amino acid which has n i type of synonymous codons. The codons with RSCU value higher than 1.0 have positive codon usage bias, while codons with value lower than 1.0 has relative negative codon usage bias. As RSCU values of some codons are nearly equal to 1.0, it means that these codons are chosen equally and randomly. The index GC3s means the fraction of the nucleotides G+C at the synonymous third codon position, excluding Met, Trp, and the termination codons. The ENC, as the best estimator of absolute synonymous codon usage bias [16] , was calculated for the quantification of the codon usage bias of each ORF [17] . The predicted values of ENC were calculated as ENC = 2 + s + 29 where s represents the given (G+C) 3 % value. The values of ENC can also be obtained by EMBOSS CHIPS program [18] . Analyses were conducted with the Nei-Gojobori model [19] , involving 30 nucleotide sequences. All positions containing gaps and missing data were eliminated. The values of dn, ds and ω (dn/ds) were calculated in MEGA4.0 [20] . Multivariate statistical analysis can be used to explore the relationships between variables and samples. In this study, correspondence analysis was used to investigate the major trend in codon usage variation among ORFs. In this study, the complete coding region of each ORF was represented as a 59 dimensional vector, and each dimension corresponds to the RSCU value of one sense codon (excluding Met, Trp, and the termination codons) [21] . Correlation analysis was used to identify the relationship between nucleotide composition and synonymous codon usage pattern [22] . This analysis was implemented based on the Spearman's rank correlation analysis way. All statistical processes were carried out by with statistical software SPSS 17.0 for windows. The values of nucleotide contents in complete coding region of all 30 RHDV genomes were analyzed and listed in Table 2 and Table 3 . Evidently, (C+G)% content of the ORF1 fluctuated from 50.889 to 51.557 with a mean value of 51.14557, and (C+G)% content of the ORF2 were ranged from 35.593 to 40.113 with a mean value of 37.6624, which were indicating that nucleotides A and U were the major elements of ORF2 against ORF1. Comparing the values of A 3 %, U 3 %, C 3 % and G 3 %, it is clear that C 3 % was distinctly high and A 3 % was the lowest of all in ORF1 of RHDV, while U 3 % was distinctly high and C 3 % was the lowest of all in ORF2 of Table 2 Identified nucleotide contents in complete coding region (length > 250 bps) in the ORF1 of RHDV (30 isolates) genome Table 4 . Most preferentially used codons in ORF1 were C-ended or G-ended codons except Ala, Pro and Ser, however, A-ended or G-ended codons were preferred as the content of ORF2. In addition, the dn, ds and ω(dN/dS) values of ORF1 were separately 0.014, 0.338 and 0.041, and the values of ORF2 were 0.034, 0.103 and 0.034, respectively. The ω values of two ORFs in RHDV genome are generally low, indicating that the RHDV whole genome is subject to relatively strong selective constraints. COA was used to investigate the major trend in codon usage variation between two ORFs of all 30 RHDV selected for this study. After COA for RHDV Genome, one major trend in the first axis (f' 1 ) which accounted for 42.967% of the total variation, and another major trend in the second axis (f' 2 ) which accounted for 3.632% of the total variation. The coordinate of the complete coding region of each ORF was plotted in Figure 1 defining by the first and second principal axes. It is clear that coordinate of each ORF is relatively isolated. Interestingly, we found that relatively isolated spots from ORF2 tend to cluster into two groups: the ordinate value of one group (marked as Group 1) is To estimate whether the evolution of RHDV genome on codon usage was regulated by mutation pressure or natural selection, the A%, U%, C%, G% and (C+G)% were compared with A 3 %, U 3 %, C 3 %, G 3 % and (C 3 +G 3 )%, respectively (Table 5 ). There is a complex correlation among nucleotide compositions. In detail, A 3 %, U 3 %, C 3 % and G 3 % have a significant negative correlation with G%, C%, U% and A% and positive correlation with A%, U%, C% and G%, respectively. It suggests that nucleotide constraint may influence synonymous codon usage patterns. However, A 3 % has non-correlation with U% and C%, and U 3 % has noncorrelation with A% and G%, respectively, which haven't indicated any peculiarity about synonymous codon usage. Furthermore, C 3 % and G 3 % have non-correlation with A%, G% and U%, C%, respectively, indicating these data don't reflect the true feature of synonymous codon usage as well. Therefore, linear regression analysis was implemented to analyze the correlation between synonymous codon usage bias and nucleotide compositions. Details of correlation analysis between the first two principle axes (f' 1 and f' 2 ) of each RHDV genome in COA and nucleotide contents were listed in Table 6 . In surprise, only f2 values are closely related to base nucleotide A and G content on the third codon position only, suggesting that nucleotide A and G is a factor influencing the synonymous codon usage pattern of RHDV genome. However, f' 1 value has non-correlation with base nucleotide contents on the third codon position; it is observably suggest that codon usage patterns in RHDV were probably influenced by other factors, such as the second structure of viral genome and limits of host. In spite of that, compositional constraint is a factor shaping the pattern of synonymous codon usage in RHDV genome. Figure 1 A plot of value of the first and second axis of RHDV genome in COA. The first axis (f' 1 ) accounts for 42.967% of the total variation, and the second axis (f' 2 ) accounts for 3.632% of the total variation. Table 5 Summary of correlation analysis between the A, U, C, G contents and A 3 , U 3 , C 3 , G 3 contents in all selected samples There have been more and more features that are unique to RHDV within the family Caliciviridae, including its single host tropism, its genome and its VP10 as a structural protein with unknown function. After we analyzed synonymous codon usage in RHDV (Table 2) , we obtained several conclusions and conjectures as followed. 4.1 Mutational bias as a main factor leading to synonymous codon usage variation ENC-plot, as a general strategy, was utilized to investigate patterns of synonymous codon usage. The ENC-plots of ORFs constrained only by a C 3 +G 3 composition will lie on or just below the curve of the predicted values [18] . ENC values of RHDV genomes were plotted against its corresponding (C 3 +G 3 ) %. All of the spots lie below the curve of the predicted values, as shown in Figure 2 , suggesting that the codon usage bias in all these 30 RHDV genomes is principally influenced by the mutational bias. As we know, the efficiency of gene expression is influenced by regulator sequences or elements and codon usage bias. It reported that the RNA sequence of the 3terminal 84 nucleotides of ORF1were found to be crucial for VP10 expression instead of the encoded peptide. VP10 coding by ORF2 has been reported as a low expressive structural protein against VP60 coding by ORF1 [5] . And its efficiency of translation is only 20% of VP60. According to results showed by Table 4 , it revealed the differences in codon usage patterns of two ORFs, which is a possible factor reducing the expression of VP10. Although VP10 encoded by ORF2, as a minor structural protein with unknown functions, has been described by LIU as a nonessential protein for virus infectivity, the ω Figure 2 Effective number of codons used in each ORF plotted against the GC3s. The continuous curve plots the relationship between GC3s and ENC in the absence of selection. All of spots lie below the expected curve. value of ORF2 suggests VP10 plays an important role in the certain stage of whole RHDV lifecycle. After combining with low expression and ω value of VP10, we conjectured that VP10 might be beneficial for the replication, release or both of virus by inducing infected cell apoptosis initiate by RHDV. This mechanism has been confirmed in various positive-chain RNA viruses, including coxsackievirus, dengue virus, equine arterivirus, footand-mouth disease virus, hepatitis C virus, poliovirus, rhinovirus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] , although the details remain elusive. As preceding description, ENC reflects the evolution of codon usage variation and nucleotide composition to some degree. After the correlation analysis of ENC values between ORF1 and ORF2 (Table 7) , the related coefficient of ENC values of two ORFs is 0.230, and p value is 0.222 more than 0.05. These data revealed that no correlation existed in ENC values of two ORFs, indicating that codon usage patterns and evolution of two ORFs are separated each other. Further, this information maybe helps us well understand why RSCU and ENC between two ORFs are quite different. Interestingly, we found that relatively isolated spots from ORF2 tend to cluster into two groups: the ordinate value of one group (marked as Group 1) is positive value and the other one (marked as Group 2) is negative value. And all of those strains isolated before 2000 belonged to Group 2, including Italy-90, RHDV-V351, RHDV-FRG, BS89, RHDV-SD and M67473.1. Although RHDV has been reported as only one type, this may be a reference on dividing into two genotypes. In this report, we firstly analyzed its genome and two open reading frameworks (ORFs) from this aspect of codon usage bias. Our researches indicated that mutation pressure rather than natural is the most important determinant in RHDV with high codon bias, and the codon usage bias is nearly contrary between ORF1 and ORF2, which is maybe one of factors regulating the expression of VP60 (encoding by ORF1) and VP10 (encoding by ORF2). Furthermore, negative selective constraints on the RHDV whole genome implied that VP10 played an important role in RHDV lifecycle. We conjectured that VP10 might be beneficial for the replication, release or both of virus by inducing infected cell apoptosis initiate by RHDV. According to the results of the principal component analysis for ORF2 of RSCU, we firstly separated 30 RHDV into two genotypes, and the ENC values indicated ORF1 and ORF2 were independent among the evolution of RHDV. All the results will guide the next researches on the RHDV as a reference.

What accounts for the variation of codon usage among open reading frameworks?

Molecular and serological investigation of 2019-nCoV infected patients: implication of multiple shedding routes https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7048229/ SHA: da81f0d3a12ab7faa09148acb6564271474e9e02 Authors: Zhang, Wei; Du, Rong-Hui; Li, Bei; Zheng, Xiao-Shuang; Yang, Xing-Lou; Hu, Ben; Wang, Yan-Yi; Xiao, Geng-Fu; Yan, Bing; Shi, Zheng-Li; Zhou, Peng Date: 2020-02-17 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1729071 License: cc-by Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral–fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral–fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) belong to the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae in the family Coronaviridae and the order Nidovirales. A human coronavirus (SARS-CoV) caused the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS) outbreak in 2003. Most recently, an SARS-related CoV was implicated as the etiological agent responsible for the outbreak in Wuhan, central China. This outbreak is estimated to have started on 12th December 2019 and 17,332 laboratory confirmed cases with 361 deaths as of 3rd February 2020 in China [1] . The virus has spread to 23 other countries by travellers from Wuhan [1] . Typical symptoms are fever, malaise, shortness of breath and in severe cases, pneumonia [2] [3] [4] . The disease was first called unidentified viral pneumonia. We quickly identified the etiological agent, termed 2019-nCoV (virus name designated by the World Health Organization). The newly identified virus is an SARS-related virus (SARSr-CoV) but shares only 74.5% genome identity to SARS-CoV [2] . We developed molecular detection tools based on viral spike genes. Our previous studies indicate that qPCR method can be used for the detection of 2019-nCoV in oral swabs or in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) [5] . Additionally, we developed IgM and IgG detection methods using a cross-reactive nucleocapsid protein (NP) from another SARSr-CoV Rp3 [6] , which is 92% identical to 2019-nCoV NP. Using these serological tools, we demonstrate viral antibody titres increase in patients infected with 2019-nCoV [5] . Like SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV induced pneumonia through respiratory tract by clinical observation. Therefore, the presence of viral antigen in oral swabs was used as detection standard for 2019-nCoV. Similarly, two times of oral swabs negative in a 24-h interval was considered as viral clearance by patients officially. Here we launched an investigation of 2019-nCoV in a Wuhan hospital, aiming to investigate the other possible transmission route of this virus. Human samples, including oral swabs, anal swabs and blood samples were collected by Wuhan pulmonary hospital with the consent from all patients and approved by the ethics committee of the designated hospital for emerging infectious diseases. Two investigations were performed. In the first investigation, we collected samples from 39 patients, 7 of which were in severe conditions. In the second investigation, we collected samples from 139 patients, yet their clinical records were not available. We only showed patients who were viral nucleotide detection positive. Patients were sampled without gender or age preference unless where indicated. For swabs, 1.5 ml DMEM+2% FBS medium was added in each tube. Supernatant was collected after 2500 rpm, 60 s vortex and 15-30 min standing. Supernatant from swabs were added to lysis buffer for RNA extraction. Serum was separated by centrifugation at 3000 g for 15 min within 24 h of collection, followed by 56°C 30 min inactivation, and then stored at 4°C until use. Whenever commercial kits were used, manufacturer's instructions were followed without modification. RNA was extracted from 200 μl of samples with the High Pure Viral RNA Kit (Roche). RNA was eluted in 50 μl of elution buffer and used as the template for RT-PCR. QPCR detection method based on 2019-nCoV S gene can be found in the previous study [5] . In brief, RNA extracted from above used in qPCR by HiScript® II One Step qRT-PCR SYBR® Green Kit (Vazyme Biotech Co., Ltd). The 20 μl qPCR reaction mix contained 10 μl 2× One Step SYBR Green Mix, 1 μl One Step SYBR Green Enzyme Mix, 0.4 μl 50 × ROX Reference Dye 1, 0.4 μl of each primer (10 μM) and 2 μl template RNA. Amplification was performed as follows: 50°C for 3 min, 95°C for 30 s followed by 40 cycles consisting of 95°C for 10 s, 60°C for 30 s, and a default melting curve step in an ABI 7500 machine. In-house anti-SARSr-CoV IgG and IgM ELISA kits were developed using SARSr-CoV Rp3 NP as antigen, which shared above 90% amino acid identity to all SARSr-CoVs, as reported previously [5] . For IgG test, MaxiSorp Nunc-immuno 96 well ELISA plates were coated (100 ng/well) overnight with recombinant NP. Human sera were used at 1:20 dilution for 1 h at 37°C. An anti-Human IgG-HRP conjugated monoclonal antibody (Kyab Biotech Co., Ltd, Wuhan, China) was used at a dilution of 1:40,000. The OD value (450-630) was calculated. For IgM test, Maxi-Sorp Nunc-immuno 96 wellELISA plates were coated (500 ng/well) overnight with anti-human IgM (µ chain). Human sera were used at 1:100 dilution for 40 min at 37°C, followed by anti-Rp3 NP-HRP conjugated (Kyab Biotech Co., Ltd, Wuhan, China) at a dilution of 1:4000. The OD value (450-630) was calculated. In the first investigation, we aimed to test whether viral positive can be found in anal swab and blood as well as oral swabs. We conducted a molecular investigation to patients in Wuhan pulmonary hospital, who were detected as oral swabs positive for 2019-nCoV upon admission. We collected blood, oral swabs and anal swabs for 2019-nCoV qPCR test using previously established method [5] . We found 15 patients who still carry virus following days of medical treatments. Of these patients, 8 were oral swabs positive (53.3%), 4 were anal swabs positive (26.7%), 6 blood positives (40%) and 3 serum positives (20%). Two patients were positive by both oral swab and anal swab, yet none of the blood positive was also swabs positive. Not surprisingly, all serum positives were also whole serum positive (Table 1 ). In summary, viral nucleotide can be found in anal swab or blood even if it cannot be detected in oral swabs. It should be noted that although swabs may be negative, the patient might still be viremic. We then did another investigation to find out the dynamic changes of viral presence in two consecutive studies in both oral and anal swabs in another group of patients. The target patients were those who received around 10 days of medical treatments upon admission. We tested for both viral antibody and viral nucleotide levels by previously established method [5] . We showed that both IgM and IgG titres were relatively low or undetectable in day 0 (the day of first sampling). On day 5, an increase of viral antibodies can be seen in nearly all patients, which was normally considered as a transition from earlier to later period of infection ( Figure 1 and supplementary table 1 ). IgM positive rate increased from 50% (8/16) to 81% (13/16), whereas IgG positive rate increased from 81% (13/16) to 100% (16/16). This is in contrast to a relatively low detection positive rate from molecular test (below). For molecular detection, we found 8 oral swabs positive (50%) and 4 anal swabs (25%) in these 16 people on day 0. On day 5, we were only able to find 4 oral swabs positive (25%). In contrast, we found 6 anal swabs positive (37.5%). When counting all swab positives together, we found most of the positives came from oral swab (8/10, 80%) on day 0. However, this trend appears to change on day 5. We found more (6/8, 75%) anal swab positive than oral swab positive (4/8, 50%). Another observation is the reoccurrence of virus in 6 patients who were detected negative on day 0. Of note, 4 of these 6 viral positives were from anal swabs ( Table 2) . These data suggested a shift from more oral positive during early period (as indicated by antibody titres) to more anal positive during later period might happen. Within 1 month of the 2019-nCoV disease outbreak, we rapidly developed molecular and serological detection tools. This is the first molecular and serological study on this virus after the initial identification of 2019-NCoV from 7 patients diagnosed with unidentified viral pneumonia [5] . We detected the virus in oral swabs, anal swabs and blood, thus infected patients can potentially shed this pathogen through respiratory, fecal-oral or body fluid routes. In addition, we successfully applied serology test a large population and showed which could greatly improved detection positive rate. We show that the current strategy for the detection of viral RNA in oral swabs used for 2019-nCoV diagnosis is not perfect. The virus may be present in anal swabs or blood of patients when oral swabs detection negative. In SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infected patients, intestinal infection was observed at later stages of infection [7] [8] [9] . However, patients infected with 2019-nCoV may harbour the virus in the intestine at the early or late stage of disease. It is also worth to note none of the patients with viremia blood had positive swabs. These patients would likely be considered as 2019-nCoV negative through routine surveillance, and thus pose a threat to other people. In contrast, we found viral antibodies in near all patients, indicating serology should be considered for 2019-nCoV epidemiology. A possible shift from oral positive during early infection to anal swab positive during late infection can be observed. This observation implied that we cannot discharge a patient purely based on oral swabs negative, who may still shed the virus by oral-fecal route. Above all, we strongly suggest using viral IgM and IgG serological test to confirm an infection, considering the unreliable results from oral swabs detection. In summary, we provide a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be transmitted through multiple routes. Both molecular and serological tests are needed to definitively confirm a virus carrier.

How is 2019-nCOV transmitted?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What has Spalluto et.al. have shown?

Hantaviruses in the Americas and Their Role as Emerging Pathogens https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3185593/ SHA: efe13a8d42b60ef9f7387ea539a1b2eeb5f80101 Authors: Hjelle, Brian; Torres-Pérez, Fernando Date: 2010-11-25 DOI: 10.3390/v2122559 License: cc-by Abstract: The continued emergence and re-emergence of pathogens represent an ongoing, sometimes major, threat to populations. Hantaviruses (family Bunyaviridae) and their associated human diseases were considered to be confined to Eurasia, but the occurrence of an outbreak in 1993–94 in the southwestern United States led to a great increase in their study among virologists worldwide. Well over 40 hantaviral genotypes have been described, the large majority since 1993, and nearly half of them pathogenic for humans. Hantaviruses cause persistent infections in their reservoir hosts, and in the Americas, human disease is manifest as a cardiopulmonary compromise, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), with case-fatality ratios, for the most common viral serotypes, between 30% and 40%. Habitat disturbance and larger-scale ecological disturbances, perhaps including climate change, are among the factors that may have increased the human caseload of HCPS between 1993 and the present. We consider here the features that influence the structure of host population dynamics that may lead to viral outbreaks, as well as the macromolecular determinants of hantaviruses that have been regarded as having potential contribution to pathogenicity. Text: Emerging pathogens cause new or previously unrecognized diseases, and among them, emerging zoonotic diseases are a major concern among scientists studying infectious diseases at different spatial and temporal scales [1, 2] . Changes in biotic and abiotic conditions may alter population disease dynamics and lead to the emergence of zoonotic infections [3] [4] [5] [6] . During the last decades, several outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging viral pathogens have occurred, affecting both purely-local and worldwide/pandemic involvement of human populations. Among the conspicuous examples are influenza A, Ebola virus, hepatitis C virus, severe adult respiratory distress (SARS), coronavirus, and human immunodeficiency virus, which challenge prevention and control measures of public health systems [7] . In the Americas, the recent outbreak of pandemic influenza A subtype H1N1 became a major target for control due to its rapid spread, and uncertainties in virulence and transmissibility, yet vaccine availability was limited when significant activity occurred in advance of the traditional influenza season [8] . However, in the last century outbreaks of several viral-related diseases have emerged or re-emerged involving arenaviruses and dengue viruses, and more recently, hantaviruses, and the expansion of the geographic range of West Nile virus. Among zoonotic diseases, small mammals are hosts of several pathogenic RNA viruses, especially Arenaviridae and Bunyaviridae: Hantavirus [9] [10] [11] . Hantavirus infections became a concern in the Americas after the description of an outbreak of acute respiratory distress occurred in the Four Corners area in 1993 [12] . The newly recognized disease, hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome, HCPS (or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), was linked to infection by the newly-discovered Sin Nombre virus (SNV), and the rodent Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) was identified as the reservoir [13] . However, hantavirus infections have a much longer history. A review of ancient Chinese writings, dating back to approximately 960 AD, revealed descriptions closely resembling hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), the syndrome caused by Old World hantaviruses [14] . During the twentieth century, cases of acute febrile disease with renal compromise were described from several Eurasian countries and Japan, often in association with military engagements [15] . HFRS as a distinct syndrome, however, was first brought to the attention of western medicine in association with an outbreak that occurred among United Nations troops during the Korean conflict between 1951 and 1954, where more than 3,200 soldiers were afflicted [16] . It took more than two decades until the etiologic agent, Hantaan virus (HTNV), was isolated from the striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius, detected in part by the binding of antibodies from patient serum samples to the lung tissues of healthy, wild-caught field mice [17, 18] . The virus was later found to represent the type species of a new genus Hantavirus of the family Bunyaviridae, although it was later apparent that the first hantavirus to be isolated was the shrew-borne Thottapalayam virus [19] . The categorization of hantaviruses as belonging to the family Bunyaviridae is due in part to the consistent presence of three RNA genomes that are circularized in vivo as a result of the presence of terminal complementary nucleotides that help fold the genome into a -hairpin‖ morphology, first described for the Uukuniemi phlebovirus [19, 20] . Table 1 is a list of the predominant, serologically distinct pathogenic hantaviruses. Many other named genotypes are described, but such other pathogenic forms are generally closely related to Andes or, in some cases, Sin Nombre virus. During virus maturation, the precursor form GPC is processed using a membrane -bound protease into Gn and Gc, a cleavage that occurs, and appears to be signaled, after the conserved peptide signal WAASA at the C-terminal of Gn [24] . Although the two proteins can be expressed independently through transfection, they can be retained in the wrong cellular compartment (ER or aggresome); they thus must be co-expressed to allow them stability so that the two can be assembled correctly in the Golgi [25, [27] [28] [29] . A number of activities and properties have been identified for the hantavirus envelope glycoproteins, including some features that are suspected to be involved in the pathogenicity of the disease-causing serotypes, a possibility that has engendered experimental attention. The glycoproteins are the known or presumed ligands for at least two distinct cellular receptors, the 3 integrin chain and decay accelerating factor, or DAF [30, 31] ; with gC1qR/p32 also identified as another potential entry receptor [32] . Comparisons with the tick-borne encephalitis virus E protein, led Tischler et al. to consider the Gc glycoprotein as a potential class II fusion protein, perhaps imparting fusion activity to the virion, and this hypothesis has gained support in other studies [33, 34] . Additional activities have been identified with, or claimed to be related to, Gn. For many of these studies, an underlying premise has held that there are differences between the glycoproteins of -pathogenic‖ hantaviruses relative to viruses in the genus that are dubbed to be -non-pathogenic‖. While it is true that it has not yet been possible to link Prospect Hill virus (PHV) to human disease, the absence of evidence for its pathogenicity should perhaps not be equated with the evidence of its absence. One might only consider that the level of disease (e.g., lethargy, fever, proteinuria, and azotemia) associated with infection of nonhuman primates by PHV is not significantly different from that recorded for nonhuman primate models using the known-pathogen Puumala virus (PUUV) [35, 36] . For the purpose of this discussion we will presume that apathogenic hantaviruses are indeed apathogenic. While some studies have suggested that Gn glycoproteins are directed more rapidly into the ubiquitin-proteosome pathway than are apathogenic forms, others have interpreted differences in the handling of Gn glycoproteins across hantavirus species by the ubiquitin-proteosomal system as independent of pathogenicity [37] [38] [39] . Some investigators have directed their efforts toward identifying a differential capacity, either kinetic or in absolute magnitude, in the ability of pathogenic and apathogenic hantaviruses to elicit an interferon response in cells. One premise that emerges is that apathogenic forms would tend to induce an earlier innate response that would render it more likely that the virus would be quickly cleared or rendered less competent in its replication so as to blunt any pathological response in the host [40] [41] [42] . The anti-hantavirus innate response can in some cases be attributed to viral interaction as a ligand of TLR-3, but not in others, and in endothelial cells, it appears not to require more than the viral particle itself, even when introduced in replication-incompetent form [43, 44] . Proteins and mRNAs prominently induced by hantaviruses include MxA and IFIT-1 (ISG-56) and others including some with known or suspected anti-viral activity. Those hantaviruses, often highly pathogenic strains, that fail to induce a potent antiviral response, are suspected or presumed to have a (more) potent interferon-pathway antagonism mechanism relative to other viruses, a mechanism that acts positively to prevent an effective innate response from forming, at least early in infection [42, 45] . Yet some instances are reported wherein highly pathogenic hantaviruses, such as SNV, are also able to induce expression of interferon-stimulated gene mRNAs, even very early in infection, with ISG proteins, as expected, taking longer to appear in the cell [44] . Anti-interferon activities have also been attributed to the NSs protein that may be elaborated in cells infected by serotypes that encode this protein [46] . Other investigators have examined the activities of hantavirus glycoproteins and other proteins that might themselves directly affect some aspects of the pathogenic progression associated with hantavirus infection of humans, such as vascular permeability changes. While early attempts to directly cause increases in permeability of endothelial monolayers with viral particles or viral infection were largely disappointing, hantaviruses have been identified as adversely affecting endothelial migration over substrata and in potentiating VEG-F-induced endothelial permeability [47, 48] . The shorter (50-kD) nucleocapsid or N protein is a structural component of the viral nucleocapsid, along with the genomic viral RNA segments. As an RNA-binding protein that engages the hairpin termini of the genomic segments with high affinity [49, 50] , it limits the access of the RNA to host nucleases and helps to render viral replication a closed process within the cytoplasm. It also acts as a peripheral membrane protein, as does the L protein [51] , an activity that could play a role in its presumed, but not yet demonstrated function as matrix [52] . Until recently, it had not been appreciated that N has a wide variety of other activities, some of which can be linked, not only to fundamental requirements of replication, but also to the interference with an array of the intracellular processes of the normal cell. Thus, an interaction between the amino terminus of the hantavirus N protein and the cellular protein Daxx has been proposed, with the suggestion of potential pro-apoptotic consequences [51] . N is also reported to interact with actin microfilaments, and the SUMO-1 protein [53, 54] . Using reporter-gene based assays, Connie Schmaljohn and her colleagues have reported that Hantaan virus' nucleocapsid protein has an inhibitory role in inflammatory responses mediated by NF kappa B (NF-B). The effects on NF-B expression appeared to be confined to prevention of its nuclear translocation after its attempted activation with lipopolysaccharide, LPS [55] . In the cytoplasm of infected cells, N protein can be found in cellular P bodies where it sequesters and protects 5' caps. It may locate the caps through its interaction with DCP1, a key constituent of P bodies. During hantavirus infection, the viral RNAs become concentrated in P bodies, through their interaction with N and DCP1. The N protein demonstrates preferential protection of mRNAs engineered to prematurely terminate their encoded protein in comparison to native mRNAs [56] . N protein has been increasingly linked to viral replication and translation, sometimes in previously unanticipated ways. It is among a growing family of diverse viral proteins that can serve as a nonspecific -RNA chaperone‖, an activity that should facilitate the L polymerase's access to vRNA for transcription and replication, in that it can transiently dissociate misfolded RNA structures [57] . Some of N protein's effects on translation might not immediately be recognized to be adaptive in nature. It can replace the entire EIF4F translational initiation complex, simultaneously presenting the ribosome with a replacement for the cap-binding activity of eIF 4E, binding to the 43S pre-initiation complex as does eIF 4G, while replacing the helicase activity of eIF 4A, which is presumed to be needed to dissociate higher-order RNA structure [56, 58] . These three factors normally work together to achieve translational initiation. In P bodies, N protein's ability to bind at high affinity to capped native cellular oligoribonucleotides, along with its activity in protecting capped RNAs from degradation likely facilitates the access of capped oligonucleotides for use in transcriptional initiation by L polymerase (-cap snatching‖). Trafficking of N for viral assembly: Classically, N protein in infected cells appears to be clustered or particulate in nature, with a heavy concentration at a single perinuclear location, widely considered to be the Golgi [27] . The N proteins of hantaviruses are found in association with particulate fractions, and confocal microscopy and biochemical-inhibitor studies have shown that N tracks along microtubules but not with actin filaments [52] . The ultimate destination for N, for its assembly into viral particles is the Golgi, and it traffics there via the endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi intermediate complex (ERGIC), also known as vesicular-tubular cluster [52] . A dominant negative inhibitor, dynamitin, associated with dynein-mediated transport, reduced N's accumulation in the Golgi. Later studies suggested that the specific dependence on microtubular transport is specific to Old World hantaviruses such as HTNV, but that the New World hantavirus ANDV is instead associated with actin filaments [59] . However, recent data indicates that microtubular transport is indeed utilized for the New World hantavirus SNV [60] . Hantavirus diseases of man have long been suspected of having an immunopathogenic basis in part because of their relatively long incubation period of 2-3 weeks and the observed temporal association between immunologic derangements and the first appearance of signs and symptoms of hantavirus illness. HFRS and HCPS share many clinical features, leading many investigators to consider them to be, in essence, different manifestations of a similar pathogenic process, differing mainly in the primary target organs of disease expression ( Table 2 ). The pathogenesis of hantavirus infections is the topic of a continuously-updated review in the series UpToDate [61] . By the time symptoms appear in HCPS, both strong antiviral responses, and, for the more virulent viral genotypes, viral RNA can be detected in blood plasma or nucleated blood cells respectively [63, 64] . At least three studies have correlated plasma viral RNA with disease severity for HCPS and HFRS, suggesting that the replication of the virus plays an ongoing and real-time role in viral pathogenesis [65] [66] [67] . Several hallmark pathologic changes have been identified that occur in both HFRS and HCPS. A critical feature of both is a transient (~ 1-5 days) capillary leak involving the kidney and retroperitoneal space in HFRS and the lungs in HCPS. The resulting leakage is exudative in character, with chemical composition high in protein and resembling plasma. The continued experience indicating the strong tissue tropism for endothelial cells, specifically, is among the several factors that make β3 integrin an especially attractive candidate as an important in vivo receptor for hantaviruses. It is likely that hantaviruses arrive at their target tissues through uptake by regional lymph nodes, perhaps with or within an escorting lung histiocyte. The virus seeds local endothelium, where the first few infected cells give rise, ultimately, to a primary viremia, a process that appears to take a long time for hantavirus infections [62, 63] . By the time that secondary viremia emerges, the agents of the more severe forms of HFRS and HCPS have begun to achieve sufficient mass as to induce, through PAMP-PRR interactions and other means, the expression of proinflammatory cytokines [64] . For HCPS, that expression favors the pulmonary bed and lymphoid organs, yet, for unknown reasons, spares the retroperitoneum and, in general, the kidney. In HFRS the situation is reversed, and yet it is often not appreciated that the expected preferential tissue tropism of HFRS-associated viruses and their HCPS-associated counterparts for the renal and pulmonary beds, respectively, is not as one would predict through the manifestations of the two diseases. Local elaboration of inflammatory and chemotactic mediators is considered to be a requirement for the development of systemic disease symptoms, with those abnormalities sometimes culminating in shock and death. Yet it is not hypoxemia, due to the prominent pulmonary edema, that leads to death in most fatal cases of HCPS, but rather intoxication of the heart by as-yet-undefined mediators that leads to the low cardiac output state and the associated shock syndrome [64, 65] . It is tempting to speculate that mediators produced in the lung in connection with the inflammatory infiltrate can percolate through the coronary circulation with minimal dilution in HCPS, a disadvantageous consequence of the close anatomic juxtaposition of the two organs. Thus, at least three classes of potential mechanisms, some overlapping and all certainly nonexclusive of the others, could be presumed to underlie the pathogenesis of HCPS. These include: (1) Innate immune mechanisms. The nature of interactions between hantavirus pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMP) with the pattern recognition receptors (PRR) of susceptible endothelial cells are beginning to be clarified. The prototypical HTNV appears to be recognized by TLR-3 [43] . Such an infection has consequences such as increased expression of HLA-DR in dendritic cells [66] and differentiation of monocytes toward dendritic cells [67] . (2) Direct viral effects. The observed correlation between viral load and disease severity leaves the possibility open that hantavirus particles or RNA can themselves have toxic effects on cells or on signaling. Some investigators have favored direct viral toxicity, acting through the inhibition of endothelial cell barrier function, as an explanation for much of the capillary leak, although there is widespread agreement that multiple mechanisms that mediate pathogenesis likely operate simultaneously in the affected patient [68] . A potentially important clue toward the mechanism by which hantavirus infections deplete blood platelets and, in some cases cause hemorrhagic manifestations, was advanced by the recent discovery that pathogenic hantaviruses are able to recruit platelets to adhere to endothelial cell surfaces, with β3 integrin used as a critical binding element [69] . (3) Pathogenic effects caused by the activities of specific viral macromolecules. We have reviewed some of the activities associated with the Gn, Gc and N, virally-encoded polypeptides in previous sections. Testing models of pathogenesis can be done more effectively when there is an animal model that mimics key aspects of the disease. There is no such model that closely mimics HFRS, but animal models exist for both the asymptomatic carriage of PUUV and SNV by their native carrier rodents, the bank vole Myodes glareolus and the deer mouse P. maniculatus; as well as a Syrian hamster model using ANDV or the related Maporal virus from Venezuela, for which an HCPS-mimetic disease is observed [70] [71] [72] [73] . The ANDV-Syrian hamster model has a number of features in common with the human disease, as well as some differences. Unlike the neurologic diseases that have been possible to elicit with HTNV, the hamster model for HCPS appears to be caused by capillary leak that results in pulmonary edema and the production of a pleural effusion with exudative characteristics. Typically the hamsters die between 11 and 14-d post-inoculation, reflecting a slightly accelerated incubation period in comparison to human infections. As with human HCPS, the microscopic examination of the lung reveals abundant fibrin deposition, thickened alveolar septa, and viral antigen expressed abundantly in the microvascular endothelium. ANDV-infected hamsters fitted with physiologic monitoring devices exhibited diminished pulse pressures, tachycardia, and hypotension that appear to closely mimic the shock that is believed to be the proximate cause of demise in patients who succumb to HCPS [65, 74] . Compared to the human disease, ANDV-infected hamsters exhibit exceptionally high titers of live ANDV in their tissues, with much of the viral replication occurring in hepatocytes, which are spared in the human disease. Titers of live ANDV in some cases exceed 10 8 /g, whereas hantavirus isolates from human tissues have been notoriously difficult to obtain. Despite the universal occurrence of mildly-elevated hepatic enzymes in patients with HCPS, hepatic enzymes do not appear to be present at elevated levels in the blood of diseased hamsters even immediately before death [75] . The protracted incubation period associated with hantavirus disease gives the host considerable time to mount a mature immune response against the virus. Thus, in contradistinction to infections of comparable severity and related symptomatology associated with arenaviruses and filoviruses, hantavirus infections of humans are associated with antibody responses of significant titer by the time symptoms commence. Despite this observation, it appears to be possible that natural variation in individual neutralizing antibody responses among patients with SNV infections can be linked to disease severity, suggesting that administration of antiviral antibodies could prove effective therapeutically [76] . In the case of ANDV infection, new evidence has emerged indicating that the apparent clearance of the virus from the blood does not result in the complete removal of antigenic stimulus by the virus, suggesting that the virus may persist, perhaps in some as-yet undetermined immunologically privileged site [77] . A role for T cell-mediated pathological responses in HFRS and HCPS has been the source of speculation for a variety of reasons. The severity of SNV-associated HCPS may have made it more apparent that the onset of pulmonary edema, tachycardia and hypertension seemed to be all but universally temporally associated with the appearance of a spectrum of highly-activated cells of the lymphoid lineage in the peripheral blood. Cells with a close morphologic similarity to these -immunoblasts‖ were detected in the congested, heavy lungs of patients who came to autopsy, as well as in lymphoid organs and in the portal triads [63, [78] [79] [80] . These observations led to speculation that some component of hantavirus pathogenesis could be linked to the appearance of antiviral T cells that could stimulate or contribute to the appearance of a -storm‖ of mediators and the associated capillary leak phenotype. Subsequent studies have borne out the expectation that a significant fraction of the immunoblast population in patients with HCPS are T cells with specificity for specific class I HLA-presented epitopes of viral antigens, including Gn, Gc and N [77, [81] [82] [83] . Presumably, the antiviral activities of such cells, manifested in part through their elaboration of mediators in the affected interstitium, can contribute to the endothelial/capillary leak that lies at the heart of hantavirus pathogenesis. Because early cases of HCPS often came to autopsy, it became possible to examine necropsied tissues for expression of cytokines. The study by Mori et al. (1999) revealed high relative expression of proinflammatory cytokines including TNF, IL-1, IL-6, providing evidence in favor of a -cytokine storm‖ model for pathogenesis [64] . The authors believed, based on the morphology of cytokine-secreting cells, that both monocytes and lymphocytes were contributing to the production of cytokines. That proinflammatory mediators are found in elevated levels in the plasma as well as the renal interstitium of patients with acute hantaviral illness has been recognized for some time as well [84, 85] . While diagnosis of HCPS as well as HFRS is best accomplished with IgM serology, in the acute stage of SNV infection, RT-PCR can also be used if blood cells or blood clot are used instead of plasma or serum, where sensitivity even using nested PCR primers drops to about 70% [86] [87] [88] . In a facility at which many cases of HCPS are treated, the University of New Mexico medical center in Albuquerque, a diagnostic service has long been offered in which the patient's hematologic findings are analyzed to establish the probability that a patient has HCPS. The combination of thrombocytopenia, elevated abundance of -immunoblast‖ lymphocytes, left-shifted polymorphonuclear cell population without strong morphologic evidence for their activation, and elevated hemoglobin or hematocrit values is highly specific for HCPS and allows clinicians the ability to put presumptive-HCPS patients on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which is believed to have saved many patients from a lethal outcome [89] . Human infection by hantaviruses is thought to follow contact with secretions or excretions produced by infected rodents. In the United States, 538 human infections by hantavirus were reported through late December 2009 [90] , with New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado exhibiting the highest case-loads. While the prototypical central American hantavirus in central America was Rio Segundo virus of Reithrodontomys mexicanus from Costa Rica, the first human disease appeared some years later in Panama, where Choclo virus (CHOV) arose as the etiologic agent and is believed to be responsible for all known cases of HCPS. The fulvous pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys fulvescens has been identified as the rodent reservoir [91] . In Panama, the first cases of HCPS, albeit with little or no evident cardiac involvement, were reported in 1999, and since then, 106 human infections have occurred with a 26% mortality rate [92] . Serosurveys of mammals in Mexico and Costa Rica have found anti-hantavirus antibodies [93] [94] [95] [96] , and seroprevalences ranging between 0.6 to 1.6% in human populations were reported despite the absence of known HCPS cases [97] . In South America, HCPS cases have been indentified in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay, and evidence for human exposure to hantaviruses have also been reported in Venezuela [98] and Perú [99] . In southern South America, ANDV is the main etiologic agent with cases in Chile and Argentina reported since 1995. In Chile, 671 cases of HCPS due to ANDV have occurred during the period 2001-2009 [100] . Since 1995, more than 1,000 HCPS cases have been reported in Argentina [101] ; in Brazil, approximately 1,100 HCPS cases have been identified between 1993 and 2008 [102] . Case-fatality ratios in those three countries have been similar, ranging from 30% (Argentina), 36% (Chile) and 39% (Brazil). Hantavirus infections occur more frequently in men than women, although the male/female ratio is highly variable. For example, Panamanian communities showed a ratio of 55 men to 45 women [103] , while in Chile the ratio is more biased to males (71%) [104] . In the Paraguayan Chaco the male-female ratio approaches 50% [105] . In North America, by December 2009 63% of case-patients were males [90] . All ethnic and racial groups seem to be susceptible to hantavirus infections, and the differences between certain groups (as indigenous and non-indigenous) are more likely correlated with the type habitat where the population resides (e.g., rural versus urban areas). In fact, rural communities account for the highest hantavirus incidences overall and are therefore at higher risk [92, [105] [106] [107] [108] [109] [110] [111] , although the importance of peridomestic settings as a major area of exposure has also been emphasized [112, 113] . The main mechanism by which humans acquire hantavirus infection is by exposure to aerosols of contaminated rodent feces, urine, and saliva [114, 115] . This can occur when humans reside in areas in close proximity to those that rodents inhabit, live in areas infested with rodents, or when rodents invade human settings, which are more frequent in rural habitats. There is a long history of human co-existence with rodents, raising questions about the apparent recent increases in hantavirus-related illnesses, especially HCPS. Other than an apparent association with El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) events in some regions [116, 117] , the recent increases in incidence of HCPS do not seem to follow a readily-defined temporal or spatial pattern. However, some landscape features such as habitat fragmentation or human-disturbed areas may influence rodent population dynamics and impact viral incidence [118] [119] [120] [121] . Despite the stochasticity associated with contraction of hantavirus infection, certain scenarios have been recognized as posing higher risk. Human activities in poorly ventilated buildings that aerosolize particulates that are then inhaled (i.e., cleaning, shaking rugs, dusting) are frequently identified among patients admitted for HCPS [11, 122] . Outdoor activities are thought to convey lower risk due to lability of hantaviruses to UV radiation and the presumed tendency to be dispersed in wind, although certain environmental conditions seem to maintain the virus for longer periods outside its natural host allowing for indirect transmission [123] . An alternative but uncommon route of virus transmission is by rodent bites [124] [125] [126] . Field workers handling mammals are potentially at higher risk of exposure with hantavirus infections, although when quantified through serosurveys the absolute risk appears rather slight [127] . A new study in Colorado suggests the possibility that a rodent bite may have been the proximate vehicle for outdoor transmission of SNV [128] , which re-emphasizes the use of personal protective equipment during field work activities [129] . As a particular case within hantaviruses, person-to-person transmission has exclusively been documented for the South American Andes virus [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] [135] . The identification of this transmission route has been made using both molecular tools and epidemiological surveys, but the mechanism of interpersonal transmission is not well established. Recent findings show that family clusters and specifically sexual partners share the greater risk of interpersonal transmission, although sexual transmission per se can be neither inferred nor refuted presently [130, 135] . Interestingly, ANDV may also be shed by humans through other biological fluids such as urine [136] , illustrating the particular properties that differentiate this virus from other hantaviruses. Although interpersonal transmission seems to be unique for ANDV, viral RNA of PUUV has been detected in saliva of patients with HFRS, and some patients with SNV-HCPS have viral RNA in tracheal secretions [88, 137] . Hantaviruses in the Americas are naturally hosted by rodents (Muridae and Cricetidae) as well as shrews (Soricidae) and moles (Talpidae) (Figure 1) . Three shrew and one mole species have been reported to host hantaviruses and their pathogenicity for humans remains unknown [22, 138, 139] . At least 15 rodent species have been identified as carriers of different pathogenic hantaviruses, with some South American genotypes such as Castelo do Sonhos (CDSV) or Hu39694 only identified after human infections (Figure 1 ). Hantaviruses typically show high species-specificity and no intermediate host [140] . However, some hantavirus genotypes have been described in the same rodent species. Such is the case of Playa de Oro (OROV) and Catacamas (CATV) identified in Oryzomys couesi [141, 142] , or Maporal (MAPV) and Choclo (CHOV) hosted by O. fulvescens [91, 143] . In North America both Muleshoe and Black Creek Canal hantaviruses have been detected in geographically-distant Sigmodon hispidus [144, 145] . Also, one hantavirus genotype (e.g., Juquitiba-like virus) may be carried by more than one rodent species (O. nigripes, Oxymycterus judex, Akodon montesis). Another example is Laguna Negra virus (LANV) which after being identified in Calomys laucha [146] has also been reported in C. callosus [147] . The rapid increase in the discovery of new hantaviruses and the identification of their hosts does not seem likely to end soon as new small mammal species are screened [95] . This subject is complicated by continued controversy in the criteria for the classification of distinct hantaviruses [148, 149] , which is also tied to host taxonomic classification and taxonomic rearrangements. Cross-species transmission is a major process during spread, emergence, and evolution of RNA viruses [6, 150] . Particularly within hantaviruses, spillover to secondary hosts are increasingly identified as more extensive studies are performed [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] . For example, ANDV is the predominant etiologic agent of HCPS in South America, and O. longicaudatus the main rodent reservoir. Spillover in at least four other rodent species that co-occur with the reservoir have been identified, with Abrothrix longipilis showing the second higher prevalence to ANDV-antibodies, and there is presently no question that the virus is extremely similar genetically between the two host rodents [157, 158] . In North America, spillover of Bayou virus (BAYV) may have occurred from the main reservoir O. palustris to S. hispidus, R. fulvescens, P. leucopus, and B. taylori [159] [160] [161] . Hantavirus spillover is more likely to occur with host populations inhabiting sympatric or syntopic regions [151, 162] , and cross-species transmission would presumably have greater chances of success if the host species are closely related [163] . An interesting exception is found between Oxbow virus (OXBV) and Asama virus (ASAV) in which a host-switch process seemed to have occurred between mammals belonging to two families (Talpidae and Soricidae), likely as a result of alternating and recurrent co-divergence of certain taxa through evolutionary time [138] . Hantaviruses are horizontally transmitted between rodents and are not transmitted by arthropods (unlike other viruses of the family Bunyaviridae). Spillover infection to nonhuman mammals usually results in no onward (or -dead-end‖) transmission, but if humans are infected may result in high morbidity and mortality [122, 164] . During the spring of 1993, an outbreak of patients with HCPS due to SNV occurred in the Four Corners states resulting in more than 60% case-fatality among the initial cases, many involving members of the Navajo tribe [12, 121] . In Panama, an outbreak was reported during 1999-2000 in Los Santos, and 12 cases where identified with three fatalities [165, 166] . This represented the first report of human hantavirus infections in Central America. In South America, the first largest identified outbreak occurred in the Chaco region in northwestern Paraguay during 1995-1996. Seventeen individuals were identified with SNV antibody (ELISA) or were antigen (IHC) positive out of 52 suspected cases [167] . Major outbreaks due to ANDV occurred in 1996 in southern Argentina [131, 134] ; in southern Chile clusters of patients presented with hantavirus illness in 1997 [158] . In Brazil, the first outbreak was identified in the Brazilian Amazon (Maranhão State) in 2000, and involved small villages that resulted in a 13.3% prevalence of those tested (398 total residents) [168] . The factors that trigger hantavirus outbreaks are still poorly understood, probably because they result from several interacting biotic and abiotic features whose key parameters are difficult to model. However, the use of new modeling approaches that involve geographical and environmental features seem to be promising in predicting potential hantavirus outbreaks and/or areas of higher risk [169] [170] [171] [172] . Because hantaviruses are known to be directly transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts, the first natural approach is to relate outbreaks to the ecology of the viral hosts. Hantavirus transmission and persistence in rodent populations depends on several factors that interact to affect ecological dynamics of the host, which in turn is strongly influenced by the behavioral characteristics of individual rodent species, to landscape structure, and environmental features [173, 174] . Viral transmission depends on contact rates among susceptible hosts, and despite the prevailing notion that a higher density increases encounters and hence secondary infected hosts, contrasting patterns relating rodent population size and virus prevalence can be found [175] . In addition, it has been shown that SNV transmission follows a contact heterogeneity pattern, where individuals in the population have different probability of transmitting the infection [176] . The understanding of viral transmission proves to be far more complex when species other than the main reservoir host are incorporated in the model. In fact, recent studies have shown that higher hosts species diversity is correlated with lower infection prevalence in North America for P. maniculatus [177] , in Central America for O. fulvescens (reservoir of Choclo virus) and Zygodontomys brevicauda (reservoir of Calabazo virus) [178] , and in South America for Akodon montensis (reservoir of Jabora virus) [162] . Contact rates vary according to the spatial distribution of populations and seem to be strongly influenced by landscape structure. For example, SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus was higher in landscapes with a higher level of fragmentation of the preferred habitat [179] . In addition, certain properties of the landscape such as elevation, slope, and land cover seem to be useful in detecting areas with persistent SNV infections, and therefore thought to be refugial areas where the virus can be maintained for years [169] . Changes in the natural environment of reservoir species, such as forest fragmentation and habitat loss, may alter population abundance and distribution and lead to hantavirus outbreaks, as observed in the Azurero Peninsula of Panama [118, 119] . Also, differences in the microhabitat, including overstory cover, may lead to differences in the ecological dynamics within populations and affect the rate of exposure to the virus [180] . Differences in hantavirus infections through contrasting landscapes in the latitudinal span have been found in rodent populations of O. longicaudatus in Chile, suggesting that humans are differentially exposed to the virus [107, 181] . Rodent population dynamics are affected by seasonal changes of weather and climate [182, 183] . In the case of the ENSO-associated outbreaks, a complex cascade of events triggered by highly unusual rains in the precedent year have been postulated to result in an increase of primary production and rodent densities, also increasing the likelihood of transmission of the virus to humans, but it has proved difficult to precisely demonstrate the suggested intermediate events such as increased rodent densities in the increased caseload [116, 121, 184] . In South America, effects of climate change and hantavirus outbreaks have not been well studied, despite the knowledge that several rodents species that are reservoirs of emerging diseases have dramatically been affected by events like El Niño [185] . Changes in host population dynamics are also affected by seasonality, which may lead to disease outbreaks when processes that equilibrate rodent populations from season to season are interrupted [186] . Viral emergence may continue to be promoted as human-introduced changes continue to increase in the environment at different geographical scales. Human incursions into previously uncultivated environments may lead to new contacts between rodent reservoirs and humans, increasing the likelihood of contracting infections [187] . These changes may also alter rodent's population structure and dynamics and interspecies interactions creating conditions that may lead to viral outbreaks, viral establishment in new hosts, and emergence of HCPS [102, 162] , even with seemingly slight ecological disturbance to the virus-host system [188] . Certain pathophysiologic characteristics, including thrombocytopenia and shock, of hantavirus diseases of humans, bear substantial similarity to the hemorrhagic fevers induced by other viruses such arenaviruses, filoviruses and flaviviruses, despite sharing essentially no sequence similarities therewith. Such observations raise questions about whether such commonalities in pathogenesis are chance similarities of phenotype, or instead report the presence of common molecular mechanisms among the viruses. In this review we discuss the general properties, discoveries and epidemiology/ecology of the New World forms of pathogenic hantaviruses, and also seek to identify some of the characteristics of the viral macromolecules and immunologic mechanisms that have been proposed as potential direct mediators of the pathogenic events that characterize the human disease HCPS. While it is unlikely that expression of any particular viral protein or RNAs in isolation can be relied upon to replicate key phenotypes of infection by the complete virus, some of the findings have been sufficiently consistent with what is known of the pathogenesis in vivo that they offer plausible first-pass leads in the search for therapeutic targets. We look forward to the mechanistic revelations that will follow the inevitably expanded usage of powerful methods such as deep sequencing, ever-more advanced imaging, and microscopic methods, and animal models that can at last be said to be close mimics of human hantavirus disease.

What does the hamster model for HCPS caused by?

Complete Genome Sequence of a Nephropathogenic Infectious Bronchitis Virus Strain Isolated in China https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3795213/ SHA: f2df4fc3c60338755fd23da3d7e01c0455e20745 Authors: Yang, Jing-tian; Ma, Bing-cun Date: 2013-10-10 DOI: 10.1128/genomea.00815-13 License: cc-by Abstract: Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) causes tremendous economic losses to the poultry industry. Here, we report the complete genome analysis results for a new natural recombination nephropathogenic IBV strain named SAIBK, which was isolated in the Sichuan province of China in 2005. Text: tagious and acute disease in domestic chickens, belongs to group III of the genus Coronavirus in the family Coronaviridae (1) . It is an enveloped, unsegmented, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA (ssRNA) virus and has a genome of approximately 27.6 kb (2) . Recently, many epidemiological analysis reports have suggested that nephropathogenic IBVs have become increasingly prevalent (3) (4) (5) (6) in China. In this work, the complete genome sequence of an isolate named SAIBK was analyzed and recombination was detected between SAIBK and some previously reported IBVs. A rapid amplification of cDNA ends (RACE) kit (TaKaRa, Japan) was used to obtain the 5= and 3= ends of the genome. Other parts were amplified by 19 primers with overlap between each fragment and were cloned into the pMD19-T vector (TaKaRa, Japan). All fragments were sequenced three times by Sangon Biotech (Shanghai, China). The sequenced fragments were assembled using the SeqMan software program (DNAStar, Inc.). Sequence alignment was conducted and a phylogenetic tree was constructed using the software program MEGA5 (7). Recombination analysis was performed using the RDP 4.14 (8) and SimPlot 3.5.1 (9) software programs. The complete genome of the SAIBK strain is 27,534 nucleotides (nt) in length, including the poly(A) tail. It has a classical IBV genome organization with 10 open reading frames (ORFs): The genome sequence of SAIBK shows the highest identity (94.3%) to the Chinese IBV strain SC021202 (GenBank accession no. EU714029) and the lowest identity (85.8%) to two Chinese IBV strains, BJ (GenBank accession no. AY319651) and DY07 (GenBank accession no. HM245923). It has lower nucleotide identities of 88.1%, 87.9%, and 87.7% to the most popularly used IBV vaccine strains, H120, H52, and M41, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis of the complete genome results indicated that the SAIBK strain clusters into the same branch as the IBV YN strain (GenBank accession no. JF893452) and the SC021202 strain (GenBank accession no. EU714029). The S1 subunit of the IBV genome is the major determinant of serotype (10) (11) (12) (13) , and S1 analysis indicated that the SAIBK strain has a 4/91-like serotype. The employed recombination detection methods revealed that SAIBK is a chimera virus, with recombination by the SC021202 strain as a major parent and the H120 vaccine strain as a minor parent. The first and second recombination regions were located at positions 7231 to 9126 and 13437 to 14473 in genes 1a and 1b, respectively. There were two other recombination regions detected at positions 951 to 1067 and 5393 to 5605 of SAIBK, which were recombined with the SC021202 strain as a major parent and the H52 vaccine strain as a minor parent. The recombination detection results suggested that SAIBK is possibly a chimera virus derived from the popularly used vaccine strains H120 and H52 and the field strain SC021202, and the SC021202 strain was isolated from chickens vaccinated with H120 in the Sichuan province of China in 2003 (14) . This result revealed that the field IBVs in Sichuan Province have undergone genetic recombination and are possibly emerging as new mutant strains, such as SAIBK. Nucleotide sequence accession number. The complete genome sequence of the SAIBK isolate was submitted to GenBank and assigned the accession no. DQ288927.

What virus has the closest genetic identity with the SAIBK gene?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

How was the Italian isolation found to have evolved from?

It is Unlikely That Influenza Viruses Will Cause a Pandemic Again Like What Happened in 1918 and 1919 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4019839/ Song, Liting 2014-05-07 DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2014.00039 License:cc-by Abstract: nan Text: Influenza and influenza viruses are wellknown popular topics to medical professionals and the general public. Influenza viruses had caused a pandemic globally during 1918 and 1919, and that influenza pandemic had taken away more than 20 million people's lives in the world. However, in my opinion, it is unlikely that influenza viruses will again cause a pandemic on a level (both of the morbidity rate and the mortality rate) comparable to what happened in 1918 and 1919. Influenza viruses very easily reassort, recombine, and point mutate in nature due to their segmented RNA genome structures, however, unlike highly pathogenic (virulent) viruses like rabies virus, Lassa fever virus, smallpox virus, eastern equine encephalitis virus, Ebola virus, Marburg virus, and human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1); most influenza viruses (wild types and mutants) are moderately pathogenic. The case fatality rates of some highly virulent viruses and related references are listed in Table 1 . On November 11, 1918 , the fighting of World War I was stopped, and World War I was officially ended on June 28, 1919 with the signing of the Versailles Treaty. It is estimated that around 8.5-10 million soldiers lost their lives in World War I due to battle. The war also directly caused more than 6 million civilian deaths. Millions of people suffered from hunger and malnutrition during the war. Malnutrition weakened the human immune system and made a person more vulnerable to infectious diseases like tuberculosis and influenza, therefore, hunger and malnutrition were indirectly responsible for millions of deaths in the world in that period of time. For example, about 700,000 Germans died from malnutrition-related diseases in the years of 1914-1918. During the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic, between 21 and 25 million people died of influenza worldwide. Those people were killed both directly and indirectly by influenza virus infections. Many families were too poor to buy food and coal, and to afford health care expenses when their family members were ill. Influenza virus could infect all members of a family, and this could result in no one left to feed the fires, and to prepare food for the whole family, even if they had firewood, coal, and food left in their homes. Sadly, a large number of people died of influenza virus infections along with starvation, cold, and poor living conditions (8) . In recent years, while hunger and malnutrition are not major and serious problems in some developed countries anymore, they are still very difficult to overcome in many developing countries. In these less-developed countries, there were approximately 925 million people who suffered from hunger; 125 million children were underweight; and 195 million children were stunted each year (9) . Nevertheless, in comparison to 1918 and 1919, currently, we have much better social and economic conditions and public health systems globally; and generally speaking, the majority of people in the world have better nutritional and educational statuses; better living and working conditions; therefore, better general health and immunity. Furthermore, in 1918 and 1919, physicians and nurses almost had nothing in their hands to help individuals who were infected by influenza viruses. Today, although we still do not have very effective, powerful, and practical anti-influenza drugs available, we at least have some improved, useful, and helpful anti-viral drugs like zanamivir, and effective, convenient anti-cold medicines like Tylenol or Advil. We do not have a universal vaccine to prevent all influenza virus infections, but we can make effective vaccines to a specific influenza virus strain in a short time. Actually, in the United States of America, the influenza classed mortality rate declined from 10.2/100,000 in the 1940s to 0.56/100,000 in the 1990s; and the classed mortality rates of 1957-1958 and 1968-1969 influenza pandemics were not remarkably different from the non-pandemic seasons (10) . Because of the above reasons, we can optimistically assume that even the same strain of influenza virus, which caused pandemic in 1918 and 1919, would not be able to kill millions of people and cause a pandemic comparable to the 1918-1919 pandemic again in the future. Additionally, a significant number of viruses can cause influenza-like syndromes, such as rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, Coxsackie B virus, echovirus, and metapneumovirus (11, 12) . Some of the above-mentioned viruses like adenovirus and mutated coronavirus could cause problems that are comparable to influenza viruses (13, 14) . The World Health Organization (WHO) mistakenly raised the level of influenza pandemic alert from phase 5 to the highest phase 6 on June 11, 2009 (15) . However, the truth was that most cases of H1N1 influenza A virus infections were mild, the symptomatic case fatality rate was only 0.005% in New Zealand (16) ; and in New York City, the case fatality rate was 0.0094-0.0147% for persons ≥65 years old, and for those of 0-17 years old, the case fatality rate was 0.0008-0.0012% (17) . Some researchers argued that it should not have been called an influenza pandemic in the first place if the clinical severity was considered (15, (18) (19) (20) . I believe it was unwise that we had paid too much www.frontiersin.org 23) . Not surprisingly, every year there would be some influenza patients and a few of them would die from the infections, as it is almost impossible to eliminate influenza viruses from the natural environment in many years. The severity of a viral infection is determined by both of the viral virulence (pathogenicity) and the host immunity. Some researchers' opinions on H7N9 avian influenza virus were incorrect and/or inadequate. They mainly focused on influenza viruses and worried about viral mutations, viral pathogenicity, viral adaptation, and transmission. They overestimated the negative part of socio-economic factors of the present east China: overcrowded population in the epidemic region; very busy national and international transportation and travel; a large number of live poultry markets . . . but they underestimated the currently changed, developed, and improved positive part of socio-economic factors in China. The following factors might be used to explain why that H7N9 influenza A virus epidemic was limited and controlled in China, and only a few immunocompromised patients were killed by H7N9 influenza A virus. First, China has a relatively organized and effective public health system, there are four levels of (national, provincial, prefectural-level city, and county) centers for disease control and prevention all over China (24) . Second, physicians and nurses in China were prepared and knowledgeable of influenza virus infections. Third, samples from patients with suspected influenza virus infections were collected and sent to the local and national centers for disease control and prevention promptly. H7N9 influenza A viruses were isolated and identified very quickly. Thereby, they were able to diagnose, confirm, and report three cases of H7N9 influenza patients in the early stage of the epidemic (24, 25) . Fourth, health care and public health workers were protected properly. Consequently, none of the health professionals was infected by H7N9 influenza A virus in 2013. However, a surgeon died of H7N9 influenza in Shanghai, China in January of 2014 (26) . Fifth, they detected H7N9 influenza A viruses from the samples of chickens, pigeons, and the environment of live poultry markets in Shanghai (27) ; and closed the live poultry markets of the involved epidemic region quickly. Sixth, patients were isolated and treated timely in hospitals, 74% (1251/1689) of those close contacts of H7N9 influenza patients were monitored and observed. Thus, H7N9 influenza A virus could not spread to a bigger population (24) . Last but not least, we are connected to the Internet now, and it seems that our planet is much smaller today than the earlier days when we did not have the Internet, because communication and information exchange have become so fast, easy, and convenient presently. During that avian influenza epidemic, some influenza experts in the world shared/exchanged H7N9 influenza A virus information and provided professional consultations and suggestions efficiently and rapidly. All these public health routine practices and measures resulted in that H7N9 influenza epidemic being controlled and stopped in China (24) . I have to point out that the cases of diagnosed H7N9 avian influenza A virus infection might only be the tip of the iceberg. Aside from one laboratory confirmed asymptotic case of H7N9 influenza A virus infection in Beijing (22), there were probably many undetected mild or asymptotic cases of influenza A H7N9 infection. The reason is that most people usually think a common cold is a very common and normal occurrence, and they don't take flu-like illnesses seriously. In most situations, they would just stay home and take some medicines. Only those who have very severe flu-like symptoms would see doctors, and thereby be detected and diagnosed, accordingly the real case fatality rate should be much lower than the detected 32.14% (45/140, one case from Taiwan, and one case from Hong Kong) (22, 23). Nowadays, we travel faster, and we travel more frequently and globally, and we have more complicated social activities and lifestyles, thereby increasing the chances of viral mutation; and we realize that influenza viruses are even easier to reassort, recombine, and mutate in nature than many other RNA viruses. However, we are now living in a technologically, economically, and socially much better and advanced society. I believe influenza virus infections are controllable and preventable, with the increased population health and immunity, with the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, and with standard/routine epidemiological practices, and with new effective anti-viral agents and vaccines in production in the future. Now, I first predict that influenza viruses will unlikely again cause a pandemic on a level comparable to what happened in 1918 and 1919. Hopefully, one day we could consider a strategy to produce a universal vaccine that can prevent people from infections of all influenza virus strains, or we could produce some very effective anti-influenza virus drugs; then influenza would not be a problem anymore. We should learn lessons from the mistakes we made in the past. It is reasonable and necessary to be cautious about influenza viruses, but overreactions or catastrophic reactions should be avoided in the future. My opinion is anti-traditional; the purpose of this article is to influence public health policy, and to save some of the limited resources and money for more important diseases like heart diseases, cancer, diabetes, AIDS, hepatitises, and tuberculosis (15) . Liting Song: conception of manuscript, drafting of manuscript, critical revision of manuscript, and final approval of manuscript. The author would like to recognize the contributions of the reviewers and editors of this manuscript for their corrections and editing, and Dr. Emanuel Goldman for correcting errors related to grammar and syntax of the final manuscript.

Why would real case fatality rate for the H7N9 be lower than detected rate?

Beyond phage display: non-traditional applications of the filamentous bacteriophage as a vaccine carrier, therapeutic biologic, and bioconjugation scaffold https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4523942/ SHA: f00f183d0bce0091a02349ec1eab44a76dad9bc4 Authors: Henry, Kevin A.; Arbabi-Ghahroudi, Mehdi; Scott, Jamie K. Date: 2015-08-04 DOI: 10.3389/fmicb.2015.00755 License: cc-by Abstract: For the past 25 years, phage display technology has been an invaluable tool for studies of protein–protein interactions. However, the inherent biological, biochemical, and biophysical properties of filamentous bacteriophage, as well as the ease of its genetic manipulation, also make it an attractive platform outside the traditional phage display canon. This review will focus on the unique properties of the filamentous bacteriophage and highlight its diverse applications in current research. Particular emphases are placed on: (i) the advantages of the phage as a vaccine carrier, including its high immunogenicity, relative antigenic simplicity and ability to activate a range of immune responses, (ii) the phage’s potential as a prophylactic and therapeutic agent for infectious and chronic diseases, (iii) the regularity of the virion major coat protein lattice, which enables a variety of bioconjugation and surface chemistry applications, particularly in nanomaterials, and (iv) the phage’s large population sizes and fast generation times, which make it an excellent model system for directed protein evolution. Despite their ubiquity in the biosphere, metagenomics work is just beginning to explore the ecology of filamentous and non-filamentous phage, and their role in the evolution of bacterial populations. Thus, the filamentous phage represents a robust, inexpensive, and versatile microorganism whose bioengineering applications continue to expand in new directions, although its limitations in some spheres impose obstacles to its widespread adoption and use. Text: The filamentous bacteriophage (genera Inovirus and Plectrovirus) are non-enveloped, rod-shaped viruses of Escherichia coli whose long helical capsids encapsulate a single-stranded circular DNA genome. Subsequent to the independent discovery of bacteriophage by Twort (1915) and d 'Hérelle (1917) , the first filamentous phage, f1, was isolated in Loeb (1960) and later characterized as a member of a larger group of phage (Ff, including f1, M13, and fd phage) specific for the E. coli conjugative F pilus (Hofschneider and Mueller-Jensen, 1963; Marvin and Hoffmann-Berling, 1963; Zinder et al., 1963; Salivar et al., 1964) . Soon thereafter, filamentous phage were discovered that do not use F-pili for entry (If and Ike; Meynell and Lawn, 1968; Khatoon et al., 1972) , and over time the list of known filamentous phage has expanded to over 60 members (Fauquet et al., 2005) , including temperate and Gram-positivetropic species. Work by multiple groups over the past 50 years has contributed to a relatively sophisticated understanding of filamentous phage structure, biology and life cycle (reviewed in Marvin, 1998; Rakonjac et al., 2011; Rakonjac, 2012) . In the mid-1980s, the principle of modifying the filamentous phage genome to display polypeptides as fusions to coat proteins on the virion surface was invented by Smith and colleagues (Smith, 1985; Parmley and Smith, 1988) . Based on the ideas described in Parmley and Smith (1988) , groups in California, Germany, and the UK developed phage-display platforms to create and screen libraries of peptide and folded-protein variants (Bass et al., 1990; Devlin et al., 1990; McCafferty et al., 1990; Scott and Smith, 1990; Breitling et al., 1991; Kang et al., 1991) . This technology allowed, for the first time, the ability to seamlessly connect genetic information with protein function for a large number of protein variants simultaneously, and has been widely and productively exploited in studies of proteinprotein interactions. Many excellent reviews are available on phage-display libraries and their applications (Kehoe and Kay, 2005; Bratkovic, 2010; Pande et al., 2010) . However, the phage also has a number of unique structural and biological properties that make it highly useful in areas of research that have received far less attention. Thus, the purpose of this review is to highlight recent and current work using filamentous phage in novel and nontraditional applications. Specifically, we refer to projects that rely on the filamentous phage as a key element, but whose primary purpose is not the generation or screening of phagedisplayed libraries to obtain binding polypeptide ligands. These tend to fall into four major categories of use: (i) filamentous phage as a vaccine carrier; (ii) engineered filamentous phage as a therapeutic biologic agent in infectious and chronic diseases; (iii) filamentous phage as a scaffold for bioconjugation and surface chemistry; and (iv) filamentous phage as an engine for evolving variants of displayed proteins with novel functions. A final section is dedicated to recent developments in filamentous phage ecology and phage-host interactions. Common themes shared amongst all these applications include the unique biological, immunological, and physicochemical properties of the phage, its ability to display a variety of biomolecules in modular fashion, and its relative simplicity and ease of manipulation. Nearly all applications of the filamentous phage depend on its ability to display polypeptides on the virion's surface as fusions to phage coat proteins ( Table 1) . The display mode determines the maximum tolerated size of the fused polypeptide, its copy number on the phage, and potentially, the structure of the displayed polypeptide. Display may be achieved by fusing DNA encoding a polypeptide of interest directly to the gene encoding a coat protein within the phage genome (type 8 display on pVIII, type 3 display on pIII, etc.), resulting in fully recombinant phage. Much more commonly, however, only one copy of the coat protein is modified in the presence of a second, wild-type copy (e.g., type 88 display if both recombinant and wild-type pVIII genes are on the phage genome, type 8+8 display if the Parmley and Smith (1988), McConnell et al. (1994) , Rondot et al. (2001) Hybrid (type 33 and 3+3 systems) Type 3+3 system <1 2 Smith and Scott (1993) , Smith and Petrenko (1997) pVI Hybrid (type 6+6 system) Yes <1 2 >25 kDa Hufton et al. (1999) pVII Fully recombinant (type 7 system) No ∼5 >25 kDa Kwasnikowski et al. (2005) Hybrid (type 7+7 system) Yes <1 2 Gao et al. (1999) pVIII Fully recombinant (landscape phage; type 8 system) No 2700 3 ∼5-8 residues Kishchenko et al. (1994) , Petrenko et al. (1996) Hybrid (type 88 and 8+8 systems) Type 8+8 system ∼1-300 2 >50 kDa Scott and Smith (1990) , Greenwood et al. (1991) , Smith and Fernandez (2004) pIX Fully recombinant (type 9+9 * system) Yes ∼5 >25 kDa Gao et al. (2002) Hybrid (type 9+9 system) No <1 2 Gao et al. (1999) , Shi et al. (2010) , Tornetta et al. (2010) 1 Asterisks indicate non-functional copies of the coat protein are present in the genome of the helper phage used to rescue a phagemid whose coat protein has been fused to a recombinant polypeptide. 2 The copy number depends on polypeptide size; typically <1 copy per phage particle but for pVIII peptide display can be up to ∼15% of pVIII molecules in hybrid virions. 3 The total number of pVIII molecules depends on the phage genome size; one pVIII molecule is added for every 2.3 nucleotides in the viral genome. recombinant gene 8 is on a plasmid with a phage origin of replication) resulting in a hybrid virion bearing two different types of a given coat protein. Multivalent display on some coat proteins can also be enforced using helper phage bearing nonfunctional copies of the relevant coat protein gene (e.g., type 3 * +3 display). By far the most commonly used coat proteins for display are the major coat protein, pVIII, and the minor coat protein, pIII, with the major advantage of the former being higher copy number display (up to ∼15% of recombinant pVIII molecules in a hybrid virion, at least for short peptide fusions), and of the latter being the ability to display some folded proteins at an appreciable copy number (1-5 per phage particle). While pVIII display of folded proteins on hybrid phage is possible, it typically results in a copy number of much less than 1 per virion (Sidhu et al., 2000) . For the purposes of this review, we use the term "phage display" to refer to a recombinant filamentous phage displaying a single polypeptide sequence on its surface (or more rarely, bispecific display achieved via fusion of polypeptides to two different capsid proteins), and the term "phage-displayed library" to refer to a diverse pool of recombinant filamentous phage displaying an array of polypeptide variants (e.g., antibody fragments; peptides). Such libraries are typically screened by iterative cycles of panning against an immobilized protein of interest (e.g., antigen for phage-displayed antibody libraries; antibody for phage-displayed peptide libraries) followed by amplification of the bound phage in E. coli cells. Early work with anti-phage antisera generated for species classification purposes demonstrated that the filamentous phage virion is highly immunogenic in the absence of adjuvants (Meynell and Lawn, 1968 ) and that only the major coat protein, pVIII, and the minor coat protein, pIII, are targeted by antibodies (Pratt et al., 1969; Woolford et al., 1977) . Thus, the idea of using the phage as carrier to elicit antibodies against poorly immunogenic haptens or polypeptide was a natural extension of the ability to display recombinant exogenous sequences on its surface, which was first demonstrated by de la Cruz et al. (1988) . The phage particle's low cost of production, high stability and potential for high valency display of foreign antigen (via pVIII display) also made it attractive as a vaccine carrier, especially during the early stages of development of recombinant protein technology. Building upon existing peptide-carrier technology, the first filamentous phage-based vaccine immunogens displayed short amino acid sequences derived directly from proteins of interest as recombinant fusions to pVIII or pIII (de la Cruz et al., 1988) . As library technology was developed and refined, phage-based antigens displaying peptide ligands of monoclonal antibodies (selected from random peptide libraries using the antibody, thus simulating with varying degrees of success the antibody's folded epitope on its cognate antigen; Geysen et al., 1986; Knittelfelder et al., 2009) were also generated for immunization purposes, with the goal of eliciting anti-peptide antibodies that also recognize the native protein. Some of the pioneering work in this area used peptides derived from infectious disease antigens (or peptide ligands of antibodies against these antigens; Table 2) , including malaria and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). When displayed on phage, peptides encoding the repeat regions of the malarial circumsporozoite protein and merozoite surface protein 1 were immunogenic in mice and rabbits (de la Cruz et al., 1988; Greenwood et al., 1991; Willis et al., 1993; Demangel et al., 1996) , and antibodies raised against the latter cross-reacted with the full-length protein. Various peptide determinants (or mimics thereof) of HIV-1 gp120, gp41, gag, and reverse transcriptase were immunogenic when displayed on or conjugated to phage coat proteins (Minenkova et al., 1993; di Marzo Veronese et al., 1994; De Berardinis et al., 1999; Scala et al., 1999; Chen et al., 2001; van Houten et al., 2006 van Houten et al., , 2010 , and in some cases elicited antibodies that were able to weakly neutralize lab-adapted viruses (di Marzo Veronese et al., 1994; Scala et al., 1999) . The list of animal and human infections for which phage-displayed peptide immunogens have been developed as vaccine leads continues to expand and includes bacterial, fungal, viral, and parasitic pathogens ( Table 2) . While in some cases the results of these studies have been promising, antibody epitope-based peptide vaccines are no longer an area of active research for several reasons: (i) in many cases, peptides incompletely or inadequately mimic epitopes on folded proteins (Irving et al., 2010 ; see below); (ii) antibodies against a single epitope may be of limited utility, especially for highly variable pathogens (Van Regenmortel, 2012); and (iii) for pathogens for which protective immune responses are generated efficiently during natural infection, peptide vaccines offer few advantages over recombinant subunit and live vector vaccines, which have become easier to produce over time. More recently, peptide-displaying phage have been used in attempts to generate therapeutic antibody responses for chronic diseases, cancer, immunotherapy, and immunocontraception. Immunization with phage displaying Alzheimer's disease β-amyloid fibril peptides elicited anti-aggregating antibodies in mice and guinea pigs (Frenkel et al., 2000 (Frenkel et al., , 2003 Esposito et al., 2008; Tanaka et al., 2011) , possibly reduced amyloid plaque formation in mice (Frenkel et al., 2003; Solomon, 2005; Esposito et al., 2008) , and may have helped maintain cognitive abilities in a transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease (Lavie et al., 2004) ; however, it remains unclear how such antibodies are proposed to cross the blood-brain barrier. Yip et al. (2001) found that antibodies raised in mice against an ERBB2/HER2 peptide could inhibit breast-cancer cell proliferation. Phage displaying peptide ligands of an anti-IgE antibody elicited antibodies that bound purified IgE molecules (Rudolf et al., 1998) , which may be useful in allergy immunotherapy. Several strategies for phage-based contraceptive vaccines have been proposed for control of animal populations. For example, immunization with phage displaying follicle-stimulating hormone peptides on pVIII elicited antibodies that impaired the fertility of mice and ewes (Abdennebi et al., 1999) . Phage displaying or chemically Rubinchik and Chow (2000) conjugated to sperm antigen peptides or peptide mimics (Samoylova et al., 2012a,b) and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (Samoylov et al., 2012) are also in development. For the most part, peptides displayed on phage elicit antibodies in experimental animals ( Table 2) , although this depends on characteristics of the peptide and the method of its display: pIII fusions tend toward lower immunogenicity than pVIII fusions (Greenwood et al., 1991) possibly due to copy number differences (pIII: 1-5 copies vs. pVIII: estimated at several hundred copies; Malik et al., 1996) . In fact, the phage is at least as immunogenic as traditional carrier proteins such as bovine serum albumin (BSA) and keyhole limpet hemocyanin (KLH; Melzer et al., 2003; Su et al., 2007) , and has comparatively few endogenous B-cell epitopes to divert the antibody response from its intended target (Henry et al., 2011) . Excepting small epitopes that can be accurately represented by a contiguous short amino acid sequence, however, it has been extremely difficult to elicit antibody responses that cross-react with native protein epitopes using peptides. The overall picture is considerably bleaker than that painted by Table 2 , since in several studies either: (i) peptide ligands selected from phage-displayed libraries were classified by the authors as mimics of discontinuous epitopes if they bore no obvious sequence homology to the native protein, which is weak evidence of non-linearity, or (ii) the evidence for cross-reactivity of antibodies elicited by immunization with phage-displayed peptides with native protein was uncompelling. Irving et al. (2010) describe at least one reason for this lack of success: it seems that peptide antigens elicit a set of topologically restricted antibodies that are largely unable to recognize discontinuous or complex epitopes on larger biomolecules. While the peptide may mimic the chemistry of a given epitope on a folded protein (allowing it to crossreact with a targeted antibody), being a smaller molecule, it cannot mimic the topology of that antibody's full epitope. Despite this, the filamentous phage remains highly useful as a carrier for peptides with relatively simple secondary structures, which may be stablilized via anchoring to the coat proteins (Henry et al., 2011) . This may be especially true of peptides with poor inherent immunogenicity, which may be increased by high-valency display and phage-associated adjuvanticity (see Immunological Mechanisms of Vaccination with Filamentous Phage below). The filamentous phage has been used to a lesser extent as a carrier for T-cell peptide epitopes, primarily as fusion proteins with pVIII ( Table 3) . Early work, showing that immunization with phage elicited T-cell help (Kölsch et al., 1971; Willis et al., 1993) , was confirmed by several subsequent studies (De Berardinis et al., 1999; Ulivieri et al., 2008) . From the perspective of vaccination against infectious disease, De Berardinis et al. (2000) showed that a cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) epitope from HIV-1 reverse transcriptase could elicit antigen-specific CTLs in vitro and in vivo without addition of exogenous helper T-cell epitopes, presumably since these are already present in the phage coat proteins (Mascolo et al., 2007) . Similarly, efficient priming of CTLs was observed against phage-displayed T-cell epitopes from Hepatitis B virus (Wan et al., 2001) and Candida albicans (Yang et al., 2005a; Wang et al., 2006 Wang et al., , 2014d , which, together with other types of immune responses, protected mice against systemic candidiasis. Vaccination with a combination of phagedisplayed peptides elicited antigen-specific CTLs that proved effective in reducing porcine cysticercosis in a randomized controlled trial (Manoutcharian et al., 2004; Morales et al., 2008) . While the correlates of vaccine-induced immune protection for infectious diseases, where they are known, are almost exclusively serum or mucosal antibodies (Plotkin, 2010) , In certain vaccine applications, the filamentous phage has been used as a carrier for larger molecules that would be immunogenic even in isolation. Initially, the major advantages to phage display of such antigens were speed, ease of purification and low cost of production (Gram et al., 1993) . E. coli F17a-G adhesin (Van Gerven et al., 2008) , hepatitis B core antigen (Bahadir et al., 2011) , and hepatitis B surface antigen (Balcioglu et al., 2014) all elicited antibody responses when displayed on pIII, although none of these studies compared the immunogenicity of the phage-displayed proteins with that of the purified protein alone. Phage displaying Schistosoma mansoni glutathione S-transferase on pIII elicited an antibody response that was both higher in titer and of different isotypes compared to immunization with the protein alone (Rao et al., 2003) . Two studies of antiidiotypic vaccines have used the phage as a carrier for antibody fragments bearing immunogenic idiotypes. Immunization with phage displaying the 1E10 idiotype scFv (mimicking a Vibrio anguillarum surface epitope) elicited antibodies that protected flounder fish from Vibrio anguillarum challenge (Xia et al., 2005) . A chemically linked phage-BCL1 tumor-specific idiotype vaccine was weakly immunogenic in mice but extended survival time in a B-cell lymphoma model (Roehnisch et al., 2013) , and was welltolerated and immunogenic in patients with multiple myeloma (Roehnisch et al., 2014) . One study of DNA vaccination with an anti-laminarin scFv found that DNA encoding a pIII-scFv fusion protein elicited stronger humoral and cell-mediated immune responses than DNA encoding the scFv alone (Cuesta et al., 2006) , suggesting that under some circumstances, endogenous phage T-cell epitopes can enhance the immunogenicity of associated proteins. Taken together, the results of these studies show that as a particulate virus-like particle, the filamentous phage likely triggers different types of immune responses than recombinant protein antigens, and provide additional T-cell help to displayed or conjugated proteins. However, the low copy number of pIII-displayed proteins, as well as potentially unwanted phage-associated adjuvanticity, can make display of recombinant proteins by phage a suboptimal vaccine choice. Although our understanding of the immune response against the filamentous phage pales in comparison to classical model antigens such as ovalbumin, recent work has begun to shed light on the immune mechanisms activated in response to phage vaccination (Figure 1) . The phage particle is immunogenic without adjuvant in all species tested to date, including mice (Willis et al., 1993) , rats (Dente et al., 1994) , rabbits (de la Cruz et al., 1988) , guinea pigs (Frenkel et al., 2000; Kim et al., 2004) , fish (Coull et al., 1996; Xia et al., 2005) , non-human primates (Chen et al., 2001) , and humans (Roehnisch et al., 2014) . Various routes of immunization have been employed, including oral administration (Delmastro et al., 1997) as well as subcutaneous (Grabowska et al., 2000) , intraperitoneal (van Houten et al., 2006) , intramuscular (Samoylova et al., 2012a) , intravenous (Vaks and Benhar, 2011) , and intradermal injection (Roehnisch et al., 2013) ; no published study has directly compared the effect of administration route on filamentous phage immunogenicity. Antibodies are generated against only three major sites on the virion: (i) the surface-exposed N-terminal ∼12 residues of the pVIII monomer lattice (Terry et al., 1997; Kneissel et al., 1999) ; (ii) the N-terminal N1 and N2 domains of pIII (van Houten et al., 2010) ; and (iii) bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) embedded in the phage coat (Henry et al., 2011) . In mice, serum antibody titers against the phage typically reach 1:10 5 -1:10 6 after 2-3 immunizations, and are maintained for at least 1 year postimmunization (Frenkel et al., 2000) . Primary antibody responses against the phage appear to be composed of a mixture of IgM and IgG2b isotypes in C57BL/6 mice, while secondary antibody responses are composed primarily of IgG1 and IgG2b isotypes, with a lesser contribution of IgG2c and IgG3 isotypes (Hashiguchi et al., 2010) . Deletion of the surface-exposed N1 and N2 domains of pIII produces a truncated form of this protein that does not elicit antibodies, but also results in a non-infective phage particle with lower overall immunogenicity (van Houten et al., 2010) . FIGURE 1 | Types of immune responses elicited in response to immunization with filamentous bacteriophage. As a virus-like particle, the filamentous phage engages multiple arms of the immune system, beginning with cellular effectors of innate immunity (macrophages, neutrophils, and possibly natural killer cells), which are recruited to tumor sites by phage displaying tumor-targeting moieties. The phage likely activates T-cell independent antibody responses, either via phage-associated TLR ligands or cross-linking by the pVIII lattice. After processing by antigen-presenting cells, phage-derived peptides are presented on MHC class II and cross-presented on MHC class I, resulting in activation of short-lived CTLs and an array of helper T-cell types, which help prime memory CTL and high-affinity B-cell responses. Frontiers in Microbiology | www.frontiersin.org Although serum anti-phage antibody titers appear to be at least partially T-cell dependent (Kölsch et al., 1971; Willis et al., 1993; De Berardinis et al., 1999; van Houten et al., 2010) , many circulating pVIII-specific B cells in the blood are devoid of somatic mutation even after repeated biweekly immunizations, suggesting that under these conditions, the phage activates T-cell-independent B-cell responses in addition to highaffinity T-cell-dependent responses (Murira, 2014) . Filamentous phage particles can be processed by antigen-presenting cells and presented on MHC class II molecules (Gaubin et al., 2003; Ulivieri et al., 2008) and can activate T H 1, T H 2, and T H 17 helper T cells (Yang et al., 2005a; Wang et al., 2014d) . Anti-phage T H 2 responses were enhanced through display of CTLA-4 peptides fused to pIII (Kajihara et al., 2000) . Phage proteins can also be cross-presented on MHC class I molecules (Wan et al., 2005) and can prime two waves of CTL responses, consisting first of short-lived CTLs and later of long-lived memory CTLs that require CD4 + T-cell help (Del Pozzo et al., 2010) . The latter CTLs mediate a delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction (Fang et al., 2005; Del Pozzo et al., 2010) . The phage particle is self-adjuvanting through multiple mechanisms. Host cell wall-derived LPS enhances the virion's immunogenicity, and its removal by polymyxin B chromatography reduces antibody titers against phage coat proteins (Grabowska et al., 2000) . The phage's singlestranded DNA genome contains CpG motifs and may also have an adjuvant effect. The antibody response against the phage is entirely dependent on MyD88 signaling and is modulated by stimulation of several Toll-like receptors (Hashiguchi et al., 2010) , indicating that innate immunity plays an important but largely uncharacterized role in the activation of anti-phage adaptive immune responses. Biodistribution studies of the phage after intravenous injection show that it is cleared from the blood within hours through the reticuloendothelial system (Molenaar et al., 2002) , particularly of the liver and spleen, where it is retained for days (Zou et al., 2004) , potentially activating marginal-zone B-cell responses. Thus, the filamentous phage is not only a highly immunogenic carrier, but by virtue of activating a range of innate and adaptive immune responses, serves as an excellent model virus-like particle antigen. Long before the identification of filamentous phage, other types of bacteriophage were already being used for antibacterial therapy in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (reviewed in Sulakvelidze et al., 2001) . The filamentous phage, with its nonlytic life cycle, has less obvious clinical uses, despite the fact that the host specificity of Inovirus and Plectrovirus includes many pathogens of medical importance, including Salmonella, E. coli, Shigella, Pseudomonas, Clostridium, and Mycoplasma species. In an effort to enhance their bactericidal activity, genetically modified filamentous phage have been used as a "Trojan horse" to introduce various antibacterial agents into cells. M13 and Pf3 phage engineered to express either BglII restriction endonuclease (Hagens and Blasi, 2003; Hagens et al., 2004) , lambda phage S holin (Hagens and Blasi, 2003) or a lethal catabolite gene activator protein (Moradpour et al., 2009) effectively killed E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa cells, respectively, with no concomitant release of LPS (Hagens and Blasi, 2003; Hagens et al., 2004) . Unfortunately, the rapid emergence of resistant bacteria with modified F pili represents a major and possibly insurmountable obstacle to this approach. However, there are some indications that filamentous phage can exert useful but more subtle effects upon their bacterial hosts that may not result in the development of resistance to infection. Several studies have reported increased antibiotic sensitivity in bacterial populations simultaneously infected with either wild type filamentous phage (Hagens et al., 2006) or phage engineered to repress the cellular SOS response (Lu and Collins, 2009) . Filamentous phage f1 infection inhibited early stage, but not mature, biofilm formation in E. coli (May et al., 2011) . Thus, unmodified filamentous phage may be of future interest as elements of combination therapeutics against certain drug-resistant infections. More advanced therapeutic applications of the filamentous phage emerge when it is modified to express a targeting moiety specific for pathogenic cells and/or proteins for the treatment of infectious diseases, cancer and autoimmunity (Figure 2) . The first work in this area showed as proof-of-concept that phage encoding a GFP expression cassette and displaying a HER2specific scFv on all copies of pIII were internalized into breast tumor cells, resulting in GFP expression (Poul and Marks, 1999) . M13 or fd phage displaying either a targeting peptide or antibody fragment and tethered to chloramphenicol by a labile crosslinker were more potent inhibitors of Staphylococcus aureus growth than high-concentration free chloramphenicol (Yacoby et al., 2006; Vaks and Benhar, 2011) . M13 phage loaded with doxorubicin and displaying a targeting peptide on pIII specifically killed prostate cancer cells in vitro (Ghosh et al., 2012a) . Tumorspecific peptide:pVIII fusion proteins selected from "landscape" phage (Romanov et al., 2001; Abbineni et al., 2010; Fagbohun et al., 2012 Fagbohun et al., , 2013 Lang et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2014a) were able to target and deliver siRNA-, paclitaxel-, and doxorubicincontaining liposomes to tumor cells (Jayanna et al., 2010a; Wang et al., 2010a Wang et al., ,b,c, 2014b Bedi et al., 2011 Bedi et al., , 2013 Bedi et al., , 2014 ; they were non-toxic and increased tumor remission rates in mouse models (Jayanna et al., 2010b; Wang et al., 2014b,c) . Using the B16-OVA tumor model, Eriksson et al. (2007) showed that phage displaying peptides and/or Fabs specific for tumor antigens delayed tumor growth and improved survival, owing in large part to activation of tumor-associated macrophages and recruitment of neutrophils to the tumor site (Eriksson et al., 2009) . Phage displaying an scFv against β-amyloid fibrils showed promise as a diagnostic (Frenkel and Solomon, 2002) and therapeutic (Solomon, 2008) reagent for Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease due to the unanticipated ability of the phage to penetrate into brain tissue (Ksendzovsky et al., 2012) . Similarly, phage displaying an immunodominant peptide epitope derived from myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein depleted pathogenic demyelinating antibodies in brain tissue in the murine experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis model of multiple sclerosis (Rakover et al., 2010) . The advantages of the filamentous phage in this context over traditional antibody-drug or protein-peptide conjugates are (i) its ability to carry very high amounts of drug or peptide, and (ii) its ability to access anatomical compartments that cannot generally be reached by systemic administration of a protein. Unlike most therapeutic biologics, the filamentous phage's production in bacteria complicates its use in humans in several ways. First and foremost, crude preparations of filamentous phage typically contain very high levels of contaminating LPS, in the range of ∼10 2 -10 4 endotoxin units (EU)/mL (Boratynski et al., 2004; Branston et al., 2015) , which have the potential to cause severe adverse reactions. LPS is not completely removed by polyethylene glycol precipitation or cesium chloride density gradient centrifugation (Smith and Gingrich, 2005; Branston et al., 2015) , but its levels can be reduced dramatically using additional purification steps such as size exclusion chromatography (Boratynski et al., 2004; Zakharova et al., 2005) , polymyxin B chromatography (Grabowska et al., 2000) , and treatment with detergents such as Triton X-100 or Triton X-114 (Roehnisch et al., 2014; Branston et al., 2015) . These strategies routinely achieve endotoxin levels of <1 EU/mL as measured by the limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) assay, well below the FDA limit for parenteral administration of 5 EU/kg body weight/dose, although concerns remain regarding the presence of residual virion-associated LPS which may be undetectable. A second and perhaps unavoidable consequence of the filamentous phage's bacterial production is inherent heterogeneity of particle size and the spectrum of host cellderived virion-associated and soluble contaminants, which may be cause for safety concerns and restrict its use to high-risk groups. Many types of bacteriophage and engineered phage variants, including filamentous phage, have been proposed for prophylactic use ex vivo in food safety, either in the production pipeline (reviewed in Dalmasso et al., 2014) or for detection of foodborne pathogens post-production (reviewed in Schmelcher and Loessner, 2014) . Filamentous phage displaying a tetracysteine tag on pIII were used to detect E. coli cells through staining with biarsenical dye . M13 phage functionalized with metallic silver were highly bactericidal against E. coli and Staphylococcus epidermidis . Biosensors based on surface plasmon resonance (Nanduri et al., 2007) , piezoelectric transducers (Olsen et al., 2006) , linear dichroism (Pacheco-Gomez et al., 2012) , and magnetoelastic sensor technology (Lakshmanan et al., 2007; Huang et al., 2009) were devised using filamentous phage displaying scFv or conjugated to whole IgG against E. coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella typhimurium, and Bacillus anthracis with limits of detection on the order of 10 2 -10 6 bacterial cells/mL. Proof of concept has been demonstrated for use of such phage-based biosensors to detect bacterial contamination of live produce (Li et al., 2010b) and eggs (Chai et al., 2012) . The filamentous phage particle is enclosed by a rod-like protein capsid, ∼1000 nm long and 5 nm wide, made up almost entirely of overlapping pVIII monomers, each of which lies ∼27 angstroms from its nearest neighbor and exposes two amine groups as well as at least three carboxyl groups (Henry et al., 2011) . The regularity of the phage pVIII lattice and its diversity of chemically addressable groups make it an ideal scaffold for bioconjugation (Figure 3) . The most commonly used approach is functionalization of amine groups with NHS esters (van Houten et al., 2006 (van Houten et al., , 2010 Yacoby et al., 2006) , although this can result in unwanted acylation of pIII and any displayed biomolecules. Carboxyl groups and tyrosine residues can also be functionalized using carbodiimide coupling and diazonium coupling, respectively (Li et al., 2010a) . Carrico et al. (2012) developed methods to specifically label pVIII N-termini without modification of exposed lysine residues through a two-step transamination-oxime formation reaction. Specific modification of phage coat proteins is even more easily accomplished using genetically modified phage displaying peptides (Ng et al., 2012) or enzymes (Chen et al., 2007; Hess et al., 2012) , but this can be cumbersome and is less general in application. For more than a decade, interest in the filamentous phage as a building block for nanomaterials has been growing because of its unique physicochemical properties, with emerging applications in magnetics, optics, and electronics. It has long been known that above a certain concentration threshold, phage can form ordered crystalline suspensions (Welsh et al., 1996) . Lee et al. (2002) engineered M13 phage to display a ZnS-binding peptide on pIII and showed that, in the presence of ZnS nanoparticles, they selfassemble into highly ordered film biomaterials that can be aligned using magnetic fields. Taking advantage of the ability to display substrate-specific peptides at known locations on the phage filament Hess et al., 2012) , this pioneering FIGURE 3 | Chemically addressable groups of the filamentous bacteriophage major coat protein lattice. The filamentous phage virion is made up of ∼2,500-4,000 overlapping copies of the 50-residue major coat protein, pVIII, arranged in a shingle-type lattice. Each monomer has an array of chemically addressable groups available for bioorthogonal conjugation, including two primary amine groups (shown in red), three carboxyl groups (show in blue) and two hydroxyl groups (show in green). The 12 N-terminal residues generally exposed to the immune system for antibody binding are in bold underline. Figure adapted from structural data of Marvin, 1990 , freely available in PDB and SCOPe databases. work became the basis for construction of two-and threedimensional nanomaterials with more advanced architectures, including semiconducting nanowires (Mao et al., 2003 (Mao et al., , 2004 , nanoparticles , and nanocomposites (Oh et al., 2012; Chen et al., 2014) . Using hybrid M13 phage displaying Co 3 O 4 -and gold-binding peptides on pVIII as a scaffold to assemble nanowires on polyelectrolyte multilayers, Nam et al. (2006) produced a thin, flexible lithium ion battery, which could be stamped onto platinum microband current collectors (Nam et al., 2008) . The electrochemical properties of such batteries were further improved through pIII-display of single-walled carbon nanotube-binding peptides (Lee et al., 2009) , offering an approach for sustainable production of nanostructured electrodes from poorly conductive starting materials. Phagebased nanomaterials have found applications in cancer imaging (Ghosh et al., 2012b; Yi et al., 2012) , photocatalytic water splitting (Nam et al., 2010a; Neltner et al., 2010) , light harvesting (Nam et al., 2010b; Chen et al., 2013) , photoresponsive technologies (Murugesan et al., 2013) , neural electrodes (Kim et al., 2014) , and piezoelectric energy generation (Murugesan et al., 2013) . Thus, the unique physicochemical properties of the phage, in combination with modular display of peptides and proteins with known binding specificity, have spawned wholly novel materials with diverse applications. It is worth noting that the unusual biophysical properties of the filamentous phage can also be exploited in the study of structures of other macromolecules. Magnetic alignment of high-concentration filamentous phage in solution can partially order DNA, RNA, proteins, and other biomolecules for measurement of dipolar coupling interactions (Hansen et al., 1998 (Hansen et al., , 2000 Dahlke Ojennus et al., 1999) in NMR spectroscopy. Because of their large population sizes, short generation times, small genome sizes and ease of manipulation, various filamentous and non-filamentous bacteriophages have been used as models of experimental evolution (reviewed in Husimi, 1989; Wichman and Brown, 2010; Kawecki et al., 2012; Hall et al., 2013) . The filamentous phage has additional practical uses in protein engineering and directed protein evolution, due to its unique tolerance of genetic modifications that allow biomolecules to be displayed on the virion surface. First and foremost among these applications is in vitro affinity maturation of antibody fragments displayed on pIII. Libraries of variant Fabs and single chain antibodies can be generated via random or sitedirected mutagenesis and selected on the basis of improved or altered binding, roughly mimicking the somatic evolution strategy of the immune system (Marks et al., 1992; Bradbury et al., 2011) . However, other in vitro display systems, such as yeast display, have important advantages over the filamentous phage for affinity maturation (although each display technology has complementary strengths; Koide and Koide, 2012) , and regardless of the display method, selection of "improved" variants can be slow and cumbersome. Iterative methods have been developed to combine computationally designed mutations (Lippow et al., 2007) and circumvent the screening of combinatorial libraries, but these have had limited success to date. Recently, Esvelt et al. (2011) developed a novel strategy for directed evolution of filamentous phage-displayed proteins, called phage-assisted continuous evolution (PACE), which allows multiple rounds of evolution per day with little experimental intervention. The authors engineered M13 phage to encode an exogenous protein (the subject for directed evolution), whose functional activity triggers gene III expression from an accessory plasmid; variants of the exogenous protein arise by random mutagenesis during phage replication, the rate of which can be increased by inducible expression of error-prone DNA polymerases. By supplying limiting amounts of receptive E. coli cells to the engineered phage variants, Esvelt et al. (2011) elegantly linked phage infectivity and production of offspring with the presence of a desired protein phenotype. Carlson et al. (2014) later showed that PACE selection stringency could be modulated by providing small amounts of pIII independently of protein phenotype, and undesirable protein functions negatively selected by linking them to expression of a truncated pIII variant that impairs infectivity in a dominant negative fashion. PACE is currently limited to protein functions that can be linked in some way to the expression of a gene III reporter, such as protein-protein interaction, recombination, DNA or RNA binding, and enzymatic catalysis (Meyer and Ellington, 2011) . This approach represents a promising avenue for both basic research in molecular evolution (Dickinson et al., 2013) and synthetic biology, including antibody engineering. Filamentous bacteriophage have been recovered from diverse environmental sources, including soil (Murugaiyan et al., 2011) , coastal fresh water (Xue et al., 2012) , alpine lakes (Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) and deep sea bacteria (Jian et al., 2012) , but not, perhaps surprisingly, the human gut (Kim et al., 2011) . The environmental "phageome" in soil and water represent the largest source of replicating DNA on the planet, and is estimated to contain upward of 10 30 viral particles (Ashelford et al., 2003; Chibani-Chennoufi et al., 2004; Suttle, 2005) . The few studies attempting to investigate filamentous phage environmental ecology using classical environmental microbiology techniques (typically direct observation by electron microscopy) found that filamentous phage made up anywhere from 0 to 100% of all viral particles (Demuth et al., 1993; Pina et al., 1998; Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) . There was some evidence of seasonal fluctuation of filamentous phage populations in tandem with the relative abundance of free-living heterotrophic bacteria (Hofer and Sommaruga, 2001) . Environmental metagenomics efforts are just beginning to unravel the composition of viral ecosystems. The existing data suggest that filamentous phage comprise minor constituents of viral communities in freshwater (Roux et al., 2012) and reclaimed and potable water (Rosario et al., 2009) but have much higher frequencies in wastewater and sewage (Cantalupo et al., 2011; Alhamlan et al., 2013) , with the caveat that biases inherent to the methodologies for ascertaining these data (purification of viral particles, sequencing biases) have not been not well validated. There are no data describing the population dynamics of filamentous phage and their host species in the natural environment. At the individual virus-bacterium level, it is clear that filamentous phage can modulate host phenotype, including the virulence of important human and crop pathogens. This can occur either through direct effects of phage replication on cell growth and physiology, or, more typically, by horizontal transfer of genetic material contained within episomes and/or chromosomally integrated prophage. Temperate filamentous phage may also play a role in genome evolution (reviewed in Canchaya et al., 2003) . Perhaps the best-studied example of virulence modulation by filamentous phage is that of Vibrio cholerae, whose full virulence requires lysogenic conversion by the cholera toxin-encoding CTXφ phage (Waldor and Mekalanos, 1996) . Integration of CTXφ phage occurs at specific sites in the genome; these sequences are introduced through the combined action of another filamentous phage, fs2φ, and a satellite filamentous phage, TLC-Knφ1 (Hassan et al., 2010) . Thus, filamentous phage species interact and coevolve with each other in addition to their hosts. Infection by filamentous phage has been implicated in the virulence of Yersinia pestis (Derbise et al., 2007) , Neisseria meningitidis (Bille et al., 2005 (Bille et al., , 2008 , Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Iida et al., 2001) , E. coli 018:K1:H7 (Gonzalez et al., 2002) , Xanthomonas campestris (Kamiunten and Wakimoto, 1982) , and P. aeruginosa (Webb et al., 2004) , although in most of these cases, the specific mechanisms modulating virulence are unclear. Phage infection can both enhance or repress virulence depending on the characteristics of the phage, the host bacterium, and the environmental milieu, as is the case for the bacterial wilt pathogen Ralstonia solanacearum (Yamada, 2013) . Since infection results in downregulation of the pili used for viral entry, filamentous phage treatment has been proposed as a hypothetical means of inhibiting bacterial conjugation and horizontal gene transfer, so as to prevent the spread of antibiotic resistance genes (Lin et al., 2011) . Finally, the filamentous phage may also play a future role in the preservation of biodiversity of other organisms in at-risk ecosystems. Engineered phage have been proposed for use in bioremediation, either displaying antibody fragments of desired specificity for filtration of toxins and environmental contaminants (Petrenko and Makowski, 1993) , or as biodegradable polymers displaying peptides selected for their ability to aggregate pollutants, such as oil sands tailings (Curtis et al., 2011 (Curtis et al., , 2013 . Engineered phage displaying peptides that specifically bind inorganic materials have also been proposed for use in more advanced and less intrusive mineral separation technologies (Curtis et al., 2009 ). The filamentous phage represents a highly versatile organism whose uses extend far beyond traditional phage display and affinity selection of antibodies and polypeptides of desired specificity. Its high immunogenicity and ability to display a variety of surface antigens make the phage an excellent particulate vaccine carrier, although its bacterial production and preparation heterogeneity likely limits its applications in human vaccines at present, despite being apparently safe and well-tolerated in animals and people. Unanticipated characteristics of the phage particle, such as crossing of the blood-brain barrier and formation of highly ordered liquid crystalline phases, have opened up entirely new avenues of research in therapeutics for chronic disease and the design of nanomaterials. Our comparatively detailed understanding of the interactions of model filamentous phage with their bacterial hosts has allowed researchers to harness the phage life cycle to direct protein evolution in the lab. Hopefully, deeper knowledge of phage-host interactions at an ecological level may produce novel strategies to control bacterial pathogenesis. While novel applications of the filamentous phage continue to be developed, the phage is likely to retain its position as a workhorse for therapeutic antibody discovery for many years to come, even with the advent of competing technologies. KH and JS conceived and wrote the manuscript. MA-G read the manuscript and commented on the text.

What is the primary antibody response against the phage?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What does the destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells do?

Etiology of respiratory tract infections in the community and clinic in Ilorin, Nigeria https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5719735/ SHA: f2e835d2cde5f42054dbd0c20d4060721135c518 Authors: Kolawole, Olatunji; Oguntoye, Michael; Dam, Tina; Chunara, Rumi Date: 2017-12-07 DOI: 10.1186/s13104-017-3063-1 License: cc-by Abstract: OBJECTIVE: Recognizing increasing interest in community disease surveillance globally, the goal of this study was to investigate whether respiratory viruses circulating in the community may be represented through clinical (hospital) surveillance in Nigeria. RESULTS: Children were selected via convenience sampling from communities and a tertiary care center (n = 91) during spring 2017 in Ilorin, Nigeria. Nasal swabs were collected and tested using polymerase chain reaction. The majority (79.1%) of subjects were under 6 years old, of whom 46 were infected (63.9%). A total of 33 of the 91 subjects had one or more respiratory tract virus; there were 10 cases of triple infection and 5 of quadruple. Parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus were the most common viruses in the clinical sample; present in 93.8% (15/16) of clinical subjects, and 6.7% (5/75) of community subjects (significant difference, p < 0.001). Coronavirus OC43 was the most common virus detected in community members (13.3%, 10/75). A different strain, Coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63 was detected among subjects from the clinic (2/16) and not detected in the community. This pilot study provides evidence that data from the community can potentially represent different information than that sourced clinically, suggesting the need for community surveillance to enhance public health efforts and scientific understanding of respiratory infections. Text: Acute Respiratory Infections (ARIs) (the cause of both upper respiratory tract infections (URIs) and lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs)) are a major cause of death among children under 5 years old particularly in developing countries where the burden of disease is 2-5 times higher than in developed countries [1] . While these viruses usually cause mild cold-like symptoms and can be self-limiting, in recent years novel coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have evolved and infected humans, causing severe illness, epidemics and pandemics [2] . Currently, the majority of all infectious disease outbreaks as recorded by the World Health Organization (WHO) occur in the continent of Africa where there is high transmission risk [3, 4] . Further, in developing areas (both rural and urban), there are increasing risk factors such as human-animal interfaces (due to residential-proximity to livestock). These changing epidemiological patterns have resulted in calls for improved ARI surveillance, especially in places of high transmission risk [5] . Nigeria is one such place with high prevalence of many of the risk factors implicated in ARI among children including; age, sex, overcrowding, nutritional status, socio-economic status, and where study of ARIs is currently limited [6] . These broad risk factors alongside limited resources have indicated the need for community-based initiatives for surveillance and interventions [6, 7] . For ARI surveillance in particular, infections in the community are those that do not get reported clinically. Clinical data generally represents the most severe cases, and those from locations with access to healthcare institutions. In Nigeria, hospitals are visited only when symptoms are very severe. Thus, it is hypothesized that viral information from clinical sampling is insufficient to either capture disease incidence in general populations or its predictability from symptoms [8] . Efforts worldwide including in East and Southern Africa have been focused on developing community-based participatory disease surveillance methods [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] . Community-based approaches have been shown useful for learning more about emerging respiratory infections such as assessing under-reporting [14] , types of viruses prevalent in communities [10] , and prediction of epidemics [15] . Concurrently, advancements in molecular identification methods have enabled studies regarding the emergence and epidemiology of ARI viruses in many locations (e.g. novel polyomaviruses in Australia [16, 17] , human coronavirus Erasmus Medical Center (HCoV-EMC) in the Middle East and United Kingdom [18, 19] , SARS in Canada and China [20] [21] [22] ), yet research regarding the molecular epidemiology of ARI viruses in Nigeria is limited. Diagnostic methods available and other constraints have limited studies there to serological surveys of only a few of these viruses and only in clinical populations [23, 24] . Thus, the utility of community-based surveillance may be appropriate in contexts such as in Nigeria, and the purpose of this pilot study was to investigate if clinical cases may describe the entire picture of ARI among children in Nigeria. We performed a cross-sectional study in three community centers and one clinical in Ilorin, Nigeria. Ilorin is in Kwara state and is the 6th largest city in Nigeria by population [25] . Three Local Government Areas (Ilorin East, Ilorin South and Ilorin West LGAs) were the community sites and Children's Specialist Hospital, Ilorin the clinical site. Convenience sampling was used for the purposes of this pilot study, and samples were obtained from March 28 to April 5 2017. Inclusion criteria were: children less than 14 years old who had visible symptoms of ARI within the communities or those confirmed at the hospital with ARI. Exclusion criteria were: children who were 14 and above, not showing signs of ARI and subjects whose parents did not give consent. Twenty-five children with symptoms were selected each from the three community locations while 16 symptomatic children were sampled from the hospital. The total sample size (n = 91) was arrived at based on materials and processing cost constraints, as well as to provide enough samples to enable descriptive understanding of viral circulation patterns estimated from other community-based studies [10] . Disease Surveillance and Notification Officers, who are employed by the State Ministry of Health and familiar with the communities in this study, performed specimen and data collection. Symptoms considered were derived in accordance with other ARI surveillance efforts: sore throat, fever, couch, running nose, vomiting, body ache, leg pain, nausea, chills, shortness of breath [10, 26] . Gender and age, type of residential area (rural/urban), education level, proximity of residence to livestock, proximity to an untarred road and number of people who sleep in same room, were all recorded. The general difference between the two settings was that those from the hospital had severe illnesses, while those from the community were generally "healthy" but exhibiting ARI symptoms (i.e. mild illness). Nasal swabs were collected from the subjects and stored in DNA/RNA shield (Zymo Research, Irvine, California). Collected samples were spinned and the swab removed. Residues containing the nasal samples were stored at -20 °C prior to molecular analysis. Viral RNA was isolated using ZR Viral RNA ™ Kit (Zymo Research, Irvine, California) per manufacturer instructions (http://www.zymoresearch.com/downloads/dl/file/ id/147/r1034i.pdf ). Real-time PCR (polymerase chain reaction), commonly used in ARI studies [10, 19, 27] , was then carried out using RV15 One Step ACE Detection Kit, catalogue numbers RV0716K01008007 and RV0717B01008001 (Seegene, Seoul, South Korea) for detection of 15 human viruses: parainfluenza virus 1, 2, 3 and 4 (PIV1-4), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, influenza A and B (FLUA, FLUB), rhinovirus type A-C, adenovirus (ADV), coronavirus (OC 229 E/NL63, OC43), enterovirus (HEV), metapneumovirus (hMPV) and bocavirus (BoV). Reagents were validated in the experimental location using an inbuilt validation protocol to confirm issues of false negative and false positive results were not of concern. Amplification reaction was carried out as described by the manufacturer: reverse transcription 50 °C-30′, initial activation 94°-15′, 45 cycles: denaturation 94°-30″, annealing 60°-1′ 30″, extension 72°-1, final extension 72°-10′, hold 4°. Visualization was performed using electrophoresis on a 2% agarose gel in TBE 1X with EtBr, in presence of RV15 OneStep A/B/C Markers; molecular weight marker. Specimen processing was not blinded as there was no risk of experimental bias. Standardized procedures were used for community and clinic sampling. All statistical analyses were performed using R version 3.2.4. Univariate statistics [mean and 95% confidence interval (CI)] are described. Bivariate statistics (difference in proportions) were assessed using a two-proportion z-test. A p value < 0.001 was considered significant. No observations used in this study had any missing data for analyses in this study. Basic participant demographics are summarized in PCR results showed that ten different viruses (influenza A, coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63, RSVA, RSV B, parainfluenza 1-4) were detected. Figure 1 shows how these infections were distributed across virus types as well as in the community versus clinic samples. In sum, a total of 33 of the 91 subjects surveyed had one or more respiratory tract virus (36.3%, 95% CI 26.6-47.0%, Fig. 1 ). Furthermore, 10 of those cases were triple infections and 5 were quadruple infections (illustrated by color of bars in Fig. 1 ). Figure 2 indicates how frequently each pair of viruses were found in the same participant; co-infections were most common among enterovirus and parainfluenza virus 4 (Fig. 2) . We also compared and contrasted the clinical and community results. Parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus were the most common viruses found in the clinical sample. These three infections resulted in 41 viruses detected in 15 subjects clinically, and eight infections detected in five people in the community. Together they infected 94% (15/16, 95% CI 67.7-99.7%) of clinical subjects, and 7% (5/75, 95% CI 2.5-15.5%) in the community (significant difference, p < 0.001). The most common virus detected in community samples was Coronavirus OC43; this virus was detected in 13.3% (95% CI 6.9-23.6%) people in the community and not in any of the clinical samples. However a different strain, coronavirus OC 229 E/NL63 was detected in 12.5% of the clinical subjects (2/16, 95% CI 2.2-39.6%) and not detected in the community. Double, triple and quadruple infections were another common feature of note. We identified ten different respiratory tract viruses among the subjects as shown in Fig. 1 . Samples collected from the Children's specialist hospital showed 100% prevalence rate of infection with one or more viruses. This might not be surprising, as the basic difference between the community and clinic samples was an increased severity of illness in the clinical sample. This may also explain the high level of co-infection found among the clinical subjects. The most prevalent virus in the clinical sample (coronavirus OC43) was not detected in the community sample. Further, there was a significant difference between prevalence of the most common viruses in the clinical sample (parainfluenza virus 4, respiratory syncytial virus B and enterovirus) and their prevalence in the community. Finally, some of the viruses detected in this study have not been detected and implicated with ARIs in Nigeria. There is no report, to the best of our knowledge, implicating coronavirus in ARIs in Nigeria, and it was detected in 12 subjects in this study. Although cases of double and triple infections were observed in a study in Nigeria in 2011 [28] , as far as we are aware, reports of quadruple infections are rare and have not been reported in Nigeria previously. Due to the unique nature of the data generated in this study and novelty of work in the setting, it is not possible to exactly compare results to other studies. For example, though we found a similar study regarding ARIs in clinical subjects in Burkina Faso [27] , due to the small sample size from this study it would not be feasible to infer or compare prevalence rates. Studies of ARI etiology have mostly been generally focused in areas of the world that are more developed [29] , and it is important to note that the availability of molecular diagnostic methods as employed in this study substantially improve the ability to detect viruses which hitherto have not been detected in Nigeria. Further, findings from this work also add to the growing body of research that shows value of community-data in infectious disease surveillance [8] . As most of the work to-date has been in higher resource areas of the world this study adds perspective from an area where healthcare resources are lower. In conclusion, results of this study provide evidence for active community surveillance to enhance public health surveillance and scientific understanding of ARIs. This is not only because a minority of children with severe infection are admitted to the hospital in areas such this in Nigeria, but also findings from this pilot study which indicate that viral circulation in the community may not get detected clinically [29] . This pilot study indicates that in areas of Nigeria, etiology of ARIs ascertained from clinical samples may not represent all of the ARIs circulating in the community. The main limitation of the study is the sample size. In particular, the sample is not equally representative across all ages. However, the sample size was big enough to ascertain significant differences in community and clinic sourced viruses, and provides a qualitative understanding of viral etiology in samples from the community and clinic. Moreover, the sample was largely concentrated on subjects under 6 years, who are amongst the groups at highest risk of ARIs. Despite the small sample size, samples here indicate that circulation patterns in the community may differ from those in the clinic. In addition, this study resulted in unique findings Given that resources are limited for research and practice, we hope these pilot results may motivate further systematic investigations into how community-generated data can best be used in ARI surveillance. Results of this study can inform a larger study, representative across demographic and locations to systematically assess the etiology of infection and differences in clinical and community cohorts. A larger study will also enable accounting for potential confounders such as environmental risk factors. Finally, while it may be intuitive, findings from this pilot study shed light on the scope of differences in ARI patterns including different types and strains of circulating viruses. Also, because PCR was used for viral detection, the study was limited to detection of viruses in the primer sets. Given that these are the most up-to-date and common viruses, this approach was deemed sufficient for this initial investigation. The study was conceived by RC and OK. RC and OK, MO and TD were involved in the design of the study, which was conducted by MO and TD. RC and OK analyzed the data. RC and OK wrote and revised the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

What was the difference between community and clinic cases of acute respiratory infections?

Clara Cell 10 kDa Protein Alleviates Murine Hepatitis Virus Strain 3-Induced Fulminant Hepatitis by Inhibiting Fibrinogen-Like Protein 2 Expression https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6300492/ SHA: f0c2cd2793d71f1ea11a810442a2c06d5013e899 Authors: Yu, Haijing; Liu, Yang; Wang, Hongwu; Wan, Xiaoyang; Huang, Jiaquan; Yan, Weiming; Xi, Dong; Luo, Xiaoping; Shen, Guanxin; Ning, Qin Date: 2018-12-13 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2018.02935 License: cc-by Abstract: Background: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious threat to human life, accompanied by massive and rapid necroinflammation. Kupffer cells, the major immune cell population involved in innate immune responses, are considered to be central for FH. Fibrinogen-like protein 2 (Fgl2) is a pro-coagulant protein that is substantially induced in macrophages upon viral infection, and Fgl2 depletion represses murine hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3) infection. Clara cell 10 kDa (CC10) protein is a secretory protein with anti-inflammatory properties in allergic rhinitis and asthma. However, its mechanisms of action and pathogenic roles in other disease are still unclear. In this study, we aimed to determine the role of CC10 in FH and the regulation of Fgl2 by CC10. Methods: A mouse FH model was established by peritoneal injection of MHV-3. The mice received CC10 protein through tail vein injection before viral infection. Survival rate, liver function, liver histology, fibrin deposition, and necrosis were examined. The regulatory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression was investigated using THP-1 cells and mouse peritoneal macrophages in vitro. Results: In the mouse FH model induced by MHV-3, the survival rate increased from 0 to 12.5% in the CC10 group compared to that in the saline-only control group. Meanwhile, the levels of ALT and AST in serum were significantly decreased and liver damage was reduced. Furthermore, hepatic Fgl2, TNF-α, and IL-1β expression was obviously downregulated together with fibrin deposition, and hepatocyte apoptosis was reduced after administration of CC10 protein. In vitro, CC10 was found to significantly inhibit the expression of Fgl2 in IFN-γ-treated THP-1 cells and MHV-3-infected mouse peritoneal macrophages by western blot and real-time PCR. However, there was no direct interaction between CC10 and Fgl2 as shown by co-immunoprecipitation. Microarray investigations suggested that HMG-box transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was significantly low in CC10-treated and IFN-γ-primed THP-1 cells. HBP1-siRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial cells (HUVECs). Conclusion:CC10 protects against MHV-3-induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such effects may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. Text: Fulminant hepatitis (FH) is a serious life-threatening disease characterized by massive hepatocyte necrosis, severe liver damage, and high mortality. The underlying mechanisms and the pathogenesis of FH are not clear. However, accumulating evidence suggests that, regardless of the pathogenesis of FH, the host's inflammatory responses contribute to liver microcirculatory disorders and injuries. Accordingly, It has been shown that immune cell activation and inflammatory cytokines play an important role in FH (1) . In recent years, our laboratory has conducted extensive research on the pathogenesis of FH and found that immune cells play a key role in it. Kupffer cells, natural killer (NK) cells (2, 3) , cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CTLs), and double negative T-cells (DNT) (4) (5) (6) in liver and the cytokines that are produced by these cells cause liver damage. Prothrombinase Fgl2 belongs to the fibrinogen superfamily and is produced by activated macrophages or endothelial cells, transforming prothrombin directly into thrombin, so as to quickly initiate the process of coagulation. This promotes the conversion of fibrinogen into fibrin, resulting in thrombosis (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) . Our study found that Fgl2 was highly expressed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and in liver tissue of humans or mice with severe viral hepatitis, and was positively related to the severity of the disease (13, 14) . Gene therapy targeting Fgl2 silencing showed that the survival rate of fulminant hepatitis mice increased from 0 to 33.3% (15) . Thus far, the discovery and related research involving Fgl2 have provided new insights into the molecular mechanism of hepatocyte necrosis in FH. In view of the important role of Fgl2 in severe viral hepatitis, investigations concerning the regulation of Fgl2 will be beneficial in the search for new strategies for treatment of severe hepatitis. Clara cell 10 kDa protein (CC10), also considered to be uteroglobin, Clara cell secretory protein, is one of members of secretoglobin superfamily. Expressed in mucosal epithelial cells of organs (including lungs and nose) that communicated with the outside world (16) . CC10 has immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects. Compared to wild-type mice, CC10-knockout mice exhibited excessive airway inflammation Abbreviations: FH, fulminant hepatitis; MHV-3, murine hepatitis virus strain 3; Fgl2, Fibrinogen-like protein 2; CC10, Clara cell 10 KDa protein; ALF, acute liver failure; PFU, plaque-forming units; PBS, phosphate-buffered saline; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; PCA, pro-coagulant activity; HRP, horseradish peroxidase; TUNEL, terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling. caused by allergic reaction and bacterial and viral infections (17) . Reduced levels of CC10 are associated with inflammatory and allergic airway diseases, including sinusitis, asthma and allergic rhinitis (18) (19) (20) (21) . Previous studies and published articles show that CC10 protein can not only inhibit Th17 cell responses by inhibiting expression of related molecules of dendritic cells and cytokines in mice with allergic rhinitis, but also can inhibit chitosan-3 like protein 1 (22, 23) . Moreover, CC10 inhibits the expression of an important immune regulator, osteopontin (OPN), in models of allergic rhinitis (21) . In this study, we investigated the role of CC10 in hepatitis virus strain 3 (MHV-3)-induced FH in mice and explored whether CC10 protein could regulate Fgl2 in the disease process. Female BALB/cJ mice (Shanghai Shilaike Animal Seed Center, Shanghai, China), 6-8 weeks of age, with a body weight of 18.0-20.0 g, were kept in Tongji Hospital with food and water. Mice were divided into two groups: CC10 group (experimental group) and phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) group (control group). This study was carried out in accordance with the recommendations of the guidelines of the National Institutes of Health and the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. This study was reviewed and approved by the Animal Experiment Committee of Tongji hospital. The human monocyte cell line THP-1 was purchased from the Cell Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were obtained from the Biology Treasure Center of Wuhan University, China. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line was acquired from the typical culture preservation commission cell bank, the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Shanghai, China). Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) and CHO cells were cultured in Dulbecco's modified Eagle's medium (DMEM), and THP-1 cells were maintained in RPMI 1,640 containing 10% heat inactivated fetal bovine serum (FBS, Gibco Life Technologies, USA), 100 U/mL penicillin, and 100 mg/mL streptomycin and cultured at 37 • C, 50 mL/L CO 2 and 95% humidity. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were obtained from BALB/cJ mice. Cells were resuspended in RPMI 1,640 supplemented with 10% FBS at 1-2 × 10 6 cells/mL in a 6-well plate and incubated for 4 h. They were then washed with RPMI 1640 medium and non-adherent cells discarded. The adherent cells were macrophages and were incubated for a further 12 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were divided into two groups. One group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/mL) and in the other group, PBS was added. After 2 h of stimulation, 1,000 plaque forming units (PFUs) of MHV-3 was added to the cells, which were then cultured for 4 h. Peritoneal exudative macrophages (PEMs) were harvested and lysed for real-time PCR and western blotting analysis. Cell apoptosis was detected by the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) method with a TUNEL apoptosis detection kit (Roche, Switzerland). Briefly, 5 µm sections were deparaffinized, dehydrated through an alcohol series and incubated with proteinase K for 30 min at 37 • C. After stopping the proteinase K digestion reaction with PBS, the samples were incubated with terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase end-labeling cocktail (a mixture of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase and dUTP at a ratio of 2:29, respectively), for 2 h at 37 • C in an immunohistochemistry wet box. Following washing and blocking, each section was supplemented with reagent (converter-POD) to cover the tissues and incubated for 30 min at 37 • C in a wet box. Then, the liver tissue sections were washed with PBS, and colored with diaminobenzidine (DAB) subsequently. Hepatocytes with nucleus stained brownish yellow were considered to be apoptotic cells. The expression of Fgl2 on THP-1 cells was measured by flow cytometry (BD FACS Canto II, USA). Briefly, cells (2 × 10 5 per tube) were incubated with Human TruStrain FcX (Fc Receptor Blocking solution, BioLegend, USA) for 10 min at room temperature and then incubated in the dark with mouse anti-Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Abnova,) or normal goat serum (an isotype control) at 4 • C for 40 min. Cells were washed with PBS and incubated in the dark with PE-conjugated goat anti-mouse IgG antibody (1:50, BioLegend, USA) at 4 • C for 30 min. Cells were then washed with PBS and resuspended in 300 µL PBS for study. Liver slices were fixed in 4% paraformaldehyde and then embedded in paraffin. Immunohistochemistry of liver tissues was performed using SP-9001 SPlink Detection Kits (Biotin-Streptavidin HRP Detection Systems) (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China) according to the manufacturer's instructions. For immunohistochemistry staining, the expression of Fgl2, fibrinogen, Fas and TNF-receptor 1 in mouse liver tissues was detected with polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse Fgl2 antibody (1:100, Proteintech, USA), polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse fibrinogen antibody (1:1,000, Abcam, EngLand), polyclonal rabbit antimouse Fas antibody (1:50, Abcam, EngLand), and polyclonal rabbit anti-mouse TNF-receptor 1 antibody (1:500, Abcam, EngLand), respectively. After incubation with an horseradish peroxidase (HRP)-labeled goat IgG fraction to rabbit IgG Fc, the target protein was detected using a DAB kit (ZSGB-BIO, Beijing, China). The slides were then counterstained with hematoxylin and visualized under a microscope (Olympus, Tokyo, Japan). Liver tissue and cells were homogenized in RIPA lysis buffer with phenyl methane sulfonyl fluoride (PMSF) protease inhibitor. Protein lysates were separated by SDS-PAGE, and western blotting was performed using a monoclonal mouse antihuman/mouse Fgl2 (1:750, Abnova), a monoclonal mouse antihuman HBP1 (1:100, Santa Cruz, USA), and a monoclonal rabbit anti-human/mouse β-actin (1:1,000, Cell Signaling Technology, USA). Liver tissues were collected from MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice at 72 h, and total RNA was extracted using Trizol Reagent (Invitrogen, USA) and then reverse transcribed into cDNA by using ReverTra Ace qPCR RT kit (TOYOBO, Japan). The cDNA was then amplified by RT-PCR by using Dream Taq Green PCR Master Mix (2 ×) (Thermo Scientific, USA). Realtime quantitative PCR (qPCR) with SYBR Green Real-time PCR Master Mix (TOYOBO, Japan) was performed using a CFX96 real-time PCR detection system (Bio-Rad, USA) and mRNA levels were normalized with reference to those of the house keeping gene GAPDH. Primer sequences for qPCR amplification were as follows: mTNF-α forward, 5 ′ -TTT GAG ATC CAT GCC GTT GG-3 ′ ; mTNF-α reverse, 5 ′ -GCCA CCA CGC TCT TCT GT-3 ′ ; mIL-1β forward, 5 ′ -TGT AAT GAA AGA CGG CAC ACC-3 ′ ; mIL-1β reverse, 5 ′ -TCT TCT TTG GGT ATT GCT TGG-3 ′ . mFgl2 forward, 5 ′ -GCC AAA TGT GAG TCC CTG GAA-3 ′ ; mFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -TTC CAC CCA AGA GCA CGT TTA AG-3 ′ ; hFgl2 forward 5 ′ -ACA GTT CAG GCT GGT GGT-3 ′ ; hFgl2 reverse, 5 ′ -GGC TTA AAG TGC TTG GGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 forward, 5 ′ -TGA AGC AGA AGC TGG GAGT-3 ′ ; HBP1 reverse, THP-1 cells were treated with 100 ng/ml phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) (Sigma, USA) for 48 h to induce differentiation toward adherent macrophage-like cells as reported previously (24) . The CC10 group was supplemented with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml). After 2 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/ml) was added to these cells, which were then cultured for 12 h before they were collected for western blotting and real-time PCR studies. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells were cultured in 10 cm cell culture dishes with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 80-90% confluence. Next, 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 (constructed in our lab) was mixed with 12 µg pcDNA3.1-hCC10 in serumfree DMEM. The mixture was then combined with Lipofectamine 2,000 (Invitrogen, USA) and mixed gently. After incubation at 27 • C for 20 min, the solution was added to CHO cells and incubated at 37 • C in 5% CO 2 . Four to Six hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, the cells were collected for co-immunoprecipitation analysis to evaluate the interaction of CC10 with Fgl2. Both HUVEC and THP-1 cells express fgl2. However, in the transfection experiments, it is difficult to transfect the THP-1 cells with siRNA, so we use HUVEC instead of THP-1. Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) were cultured in FIGURE 1 | CC10 protein increased survival rate and reduced liver damage in mice. (A) The survival rate of CC10 group is higher than the control group comprised of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice treated with saline. CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein. BALB/cJ mice then received 100 PFU of MHV-3 intraperitoneally 24 h later to develop fulminant viral hepatitis. Then, CC10 protein (2 µg) or saline were injected into mice by tail vein following MHV-3 infection 24 h later. The survival rate was observed for 10 days (n = 24/group). Representative data from three independent experiments are shown. The survival curve was analyzed by using the Log-Rank Test. ***P < 0.001 compared with saline group. (B) Histopathology of liver tissues (H&E staining; original magnification, ×400, n = 5/group) at 72 h post-MHV-3 infection was evaluated in the two groups of MHV-3-infected BALB/cJ mice. Livers were collected from saline-treated (a) and CC10-treated (b) BALB/cJ mice at 72 h after MHV-3 infection. Arrows point to inflammatory cell infiltration areas or necrotic regions with inflammation. (C) Effect of CC10 on serum ALT and AST levels (n = 6-8/group). Values represent means and standard error of three independent experiments performed in triplicate. **P < 0.01 compared with the saline group. six-well plates with DMEM supplemented with 10% FBS until 70-80% confluence. 50 pmol HBP1-siRNA was mixed with 125 µl serum-free DMEM. Two microliter Lipofectamine 2,000 was gently mixed with serum-free DMEM. After incubation at 27 • C for 5 min, the solution was added to HUVECs and incubated at 37 • C. Four hour after transfection, the medium was removed and fresh medium containing 10% FBS was added. At 48 h after transfection, cells were collected for real-time PCR and western blot analysis to evaluate the effects of HBP1 on Fgl2. At 24 h after transfection, the CC10 group was supplemented with the CC10 protein (150 ng/mL). After 4 h of stimulation, IFN-γ (10 ng/mL) was added to these cells. These cells were then cultured for 24 h before they were harvested for real-time PCR studies to evaluate the effects of CC10 on Fgl2 by HBP1. Negative control was used as a control. To detect whether there was a potential interaction between CC10 protein and Fgl2, CHO cells were transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2 for 48 h. Cells transfected with empty plasmid pcDNA3.1 (mock) were used as negative controls for CC10 gene transfection. Immunoprecipitation and immunoblotting were performed by using Pierce Co-Immunoprecipitation Kit (Pierce, USA). Total cell proteins were extracted as previously described (25) . The proteins were immunoprecipitated by mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). For co-immunoprecipitation experiments, western blotting was performed using both rat anti-human uteroglobin/SCGB1A1 Antibody (1:750, R&D, USA) Frontiers in Immunology | www.frontiersin.org and mouse anti-human Fgl2 antibody (1:500, Abnova). Control isotype rat IgG1 was used as a negative control for primary antibodies. The human CC10 coding region gene, including a 389 bp sequence, was amplified from homogenized human turbinate tissue by RT-PCR. In this study, the sequences of PCR primers for CC10 were as follows: hCC10-forward, 5 ′ -CCC TCC ACC ATG AAA CTCG-3 ′ ; hCC10-reverse, 5 ′ -TGA GAT GCT TGT GGT TTA TTG AAG-3 ′ . The PCR products were cloned into pEASY-T1 cloning vector (TransGEN, Beijing, China) and then subcloned into HindIII/XbaI site of pcDNA3.1 vector (Invitrogen, USA) to form eukaryotic expression plasmids pcDNA3.1-hCC10. Microarray analysis was used to screen changes in genome-wide gene expression patterns in THP-1 cells with or without CC10 protein. The changes in over 47,000 human gene expression patterns were assessed using Affymetrix gene microarrays (Human Genome U133 Plus 2.0) (CapitalBio Co.,Ltd., Beijing, China). Three replicates were used for microarrays analysis. Data obtained from the experiments are expressed as means ± SEM. Survival curve comparisons were performed with the Log Rank test. Multiple group analyses for data were evaluated by one-way analyses of variance. Analyses of two group results were performed using Student's t-test to evaluate the statistical significance of differences. Values of P < 0.05 indicated significance. To establish an animal model of mouse FH, MHV-3 was injected intraperitoneally to BALB/cJ mice (24 mice/group). To further study the role of CC10 in FH, recombinant mouse CC10 protein (2 µg/mouse) or saline was administrated into the tail vein 24 h prior to MHV-3 infection. The same dose of CC10 protein or saline was then administered 24 h later. The survival rate of the CC10 and saline groups was observed for 10 days. The results showed that mice in the two groups began to die at 48 h after injection of MHV-3 and exhibited symptoms of horripilation, slow activity, and reduced food consumption. In the CC10 group 24 mice were alive on day 3 after infection, 4 mice alive on day 4, and 3 of 24 (12.5%) mice recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis. At the same time, in saline treated group, there were 5 mice alive on day 3, 1 mice alive on day 4 after infection, and no mice survived to day 5. That is to say, the mice in the saline group died within 3 or 4 days. Three of 24 (12.5%) mice of the CC10 group recovered from fulminant viral hepatitis ( Figure 1A) . To better understand the mechanisms underlying the biological effects of the CC10 protein, liver function (ALT and AST levels in serum) and liver histology in mice of MHV-3-infected was performed. Liver tissues were harvested 72 h following MHV-3 infection, and liver histology was detected by H&E staining. These results showed that there was substantial inflammatory cell infiltration and widespread necrosis of hepatocytes in the liver tissue of the saline group mice (Figure 1Ba ). There were rare or no infiltrating inflammatory cells, and few or no hepatocyte necrosis in the livers of mice in the CC10 group 72 h after MHV-3 infection (Figure 1Bb) . Serum ALT and AST levels in mice were observed 72 h after MHV-3 infection. The results showed that serum ALT and AST levels in the saline group reached a peak 72 h after MHV-3 infection, but there was no significant increase in the CC10 group compared to the levels in the control group (P < 0.01, Figure 1C) . These results suggested that CC10 protein has a role in protection against MHV-3-induced liver injury in mice. To further elucidate the mechanisms of reduced liver injury following CC10 protein injection, we investigated the cytokines TNF-α and IL-1β expression. Because these two cytokines play a crucial role in the liver damage of FH. They are characterized by an increase in apoptosis. Levels of TNF-α and IL-1β in liver tissues were markedly reduced in the CC10 group (as shown in Figure 2A) . Hepatic apoptosis (Figure 2B ) was significantly reduced in the CC10 group. We and collaborators have a long standing interest in studying the role of fgl2 in viral hepatitis. Fgl2 has been verified to play an essential role in the progression of fulminant viral hepatitis as we appreciate from previous reports. We have provided liver pathology figures and liver function for MHV-3 infected mice with a fgl2 gene knockout as shown in Supplementary Figure 1 . The data was comparable with previous reports from our center and collaborators. From this current study we shown that CC10 plays a protective role in liver damage.To study the related molecules of CC10 in MHV-3-induced FH mice, we evaluated whether there was crosstalk between Fgl2 and CC10. We found that the expression of Fgl2 in the liver of mice was reduced 72 h after MHV-3 infection and treatment with CC10 protein (Figures 3A,B) . Furthermore, fibrin deposition, an indicator of liver injury associated with Fgl2 expression in FH, was also decreased in the livers of CC10-treated mice compared to that in controls (Figure 3C ). This indicates that CC10 treatment reduced liver injury after viral infection by inhibiting Fgl2 expression. We examined the effect of increasing doses of CC10 protein (0, 50, 150, and 300 ng/mL) on IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. CC10 treatment showed a 10.1% decrease in THP-1 cells compared to that in control after stimulation with 10 ng/mL IFN-γ for 12 h. CC10 protein inhibited Fgl2 expression between doses of 0 ng/mL and 300 ng/mL (Figure 4A ). In particular, 150 ng/mL CC10 protein had the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression among the doses, and we chose this dose for the following experiments. We explored the effect of different time points of stimulation with a concentration of 150 ng/mL CC10 protein. After stimulation with CC10 protein for 6, 12, and 24 h compared to the PBS control, the strongest inhibitory effect on Fgl2 expression was noted at 12 h; hence, we chose this time point for the following studies ( Figure 4B ). An increasing number of studies suggest that macrophages are the primary source of Fgl2. In order to ascertain that CC10 has a direct effect on macrophages, we treated THP-1 cells with recombinant CC10 and assessed the expression of Fgl2. Unlike in controls, IFN-γ induced a significant increase in Fgl2 expression. This effect was attenuated when cells were treated with CC10 protein (Figures 4C,D) , revealing that CC10 directly reduces the levels of Fgl2 in macrophages. To further explore the possibility that CC10 protein directly acts on macrophages, we infected murine PEMs with MHV-3 in the presence of recombinant CC10 and determined Fgl2 expression. Compared to levels in the controls, MHV-3infected macrophages exhibited a significant increase in Fgl2 production, and this effect was abolished by using CC10 protein (Figures 5A,B) , indicating that CC10 directly modulates Fgl2 production in macrophages. In order to determine genes that were downregulated after stimulation by CC10 protein, we used DNA microarray analysis to screen for differentially expressed genes. THP-1 cells were cultured and PMA was added to induce differentiation into macrophages. The production of Fgl2 was stimulated by IFNγ. The experimental group was treated with CC10 protein for microarray detection of differentially expressed genes. The results showed that the most obviously downregulated genes were UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, SOX4, HBP1, and Fgl2 (Supplementary Table 1) . And then these genes were tested by qPCR. However, UBE2W, HECTD1, MIR612, ATRX, and SOX4 was not differentially expressed by qPCR, while HBP1 and fgl2 were still down-regulated genes. DNA microarray analysis identified HBP1 as a down-regulated gene involved in the pathological processes of the regulation of CC10. Recently, very limited studies have explored the role of HBP1 in FH. Nevertheless, the mechanistic functions of HBP1 in FH remain largely unexplored. Therefore, we selected this gene for further study. qPCR analysis confirmed that mRNA levels of HBP1 were significantly decreased in THP-1 cells after CC10 protein stimulation compared to that in the PBS control group (Figure 6A ). We knocked down HBP1 using HBP1-siRNA. Then, transfection of HBP1-SiRNA into HUVECs was detected by qPCR and western-blotting methods. As expected, HBP1 knockdown led to significantly decreased expression of HBP1 (Figures 6B,C) . Furthermore, HBP1 knockdown impaired expression of Fgl2 (Figure 6D ), suggesting that HBP1 was able to activate Fgl2. HBP1-SiRNA was used to transfect HUVECs. Then, IFN-γ was added to induce the expression of Fgl2 followed by stimulation with CC10 protein (150 ng/ml) after 2 h. Finally, we explored the expression of Fgl2 by qPCR. The results showed that HBP1-SiRNA treatment abrogated the inhibitory effect of CC10 on Fgl2 expression in HUVECs (Figure 7) . That is to say, CC10 could suppress Fgl2 expression in macrophages. Such an effect may be mediated by the transcription factor HBP1. It is well-known that CC10 protein can suppress the immune response. In animal models of allergic diseases of the respiratory tract, most of evidences confirm this inhibition (26) . Its function in FH has not been investigated yet. Here, we used a murine FH model established by MHV-3 infection to explore the effects of CC10 in this disease process. To determine the role of CC10 in the pathogenesis of FH, CC10 protein was injected into a mouse FH model established by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3-induced liver injury in CC10-treated mice occurred rarely and the areas of lesions were much fewer than those in saline-treated control mice. In summary, these results suggested that CC10 could reduce pathological liver damage in this FH model together with lower mortality rates followed by MHV-3 infection. MHV-3 induced fulminant viral hepatitis progresses rapidly and infected mice die within 3-5 days. Previous studies suggested fgl2 played a vital role in this process with a 15-40% increase of survival when fgl2 was deleted (12, 15, 27, 28) . Multiple inflammatory factors or mediators including TNF-α and IFN-γ, IL-1β and C5aR have been demonstrated to promote FH progression with significant discrepancies between liver damage and survival rate (29) (30) (31) (32) , which is accordant with our observation that CC10 substantially alleviated liver injury though survival rate improved mildly. The survival rate based on hours may be more accurate to examine the effect of CC10 on FH. It is speculated that fgl2 can mediate lethality in MHV-3-induced FH. This is due to the fact that fgl2 induces the deposition of fibrinogen, which leads to activation of the coagulation cascade and induction of procoagulant activity (15) . To determine whether the tissue necrosis was mediated by Fgl2 in CC10-treated mice following infection, Fgl2 expression was observed. Results suggested that the expression of Fgl2 was significantly increased in MHV-3-induced FH mice and CC10 treatment significantly reduced the production of Fgl2 in the infected liver and serum. In addition, decreased fibrinogen deposition was also observed in the livers of CC10-treated mice. Therefore, our research results strongly clarify that the lower mortality of CC10-treated mice after MHV-3 infection is due to the lower levels of Fgl2 and decreased fibrinogen deposition. Indeed, it has been reported that Fgl2 is expressed on macrophages, and the expression of Fgl2 is believed to be induced by IFN-γ and TNF-α (22) . Cultured THP-1 cells activated by IFN-γ or IL-2 have been demonstrated, with induction of Fgl2 expression and enhanced activation of human prothrombin (23) . Therefore, in this study, we explored this cell line to investigate the modulation of CC10 on Fgl2. Surprisingly, we found that CC10 directly inhibited IFN-γ-induced Fgl2 expression in THP-1 cells. As we know, IFN-γ has proved to be the main cytokine that leads to the development and progression of FH. Also, it was shown that IFN-γ might exert its own proinflammatory biological function through enhancing Fgl2 expression. Therefore, in our study, CC10 might counter the effect of IFN-γ in the setting of FH, which substantiates its role in FH. These results demonstrated that CC10 regulates the expression of Fgl2 in macrophages. In the current study, we used co-immunoprecipitation to analyze binding between CC10 and Fgl2. In this study, we investigated possible protein-protein interactions between CC10 and Fgl2 in vitro. The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells transfected with pcDNA3.1-hCC10 and pcDNA3.1-hFgl2. Cellular proteins were immunoprecipitated with anti-CC10 antibody or anti-Fgl2 antibody. Immunoblotting was performed with anti-Fgl2 and anti-CC10 antibodies. Immunoprecipitation of protein extracts from pcDNA 3.1-CC10 and pcDNA3.1-Fgl2 co-transfected CHO cells with anti-Fgl2 or anti-CC10 antibody followed by western blotting with Fgl2 and CC10 antibodies indicated that CC10 did not co-immunoprecipitate with Fgl2, showing that there is no direct relationship between CC10 and Fgl2 (data not shown). The results showed that CC10 has no direct interaction with Fgl2. From our previous study the gene of fgl2 contributed profoundly in MHV-3 induced fulminant hepatitis and is extensively expressed in macrophages and endothelium (12, 33) . Our microarray indicated a CC10 down-regulated fgl2 expression and this is further confirmed by qPCR and Western blotting in vivo (peritoneal macrophages) and in vitro (THP-1, macrophage cell line). Therefore, it is reasonable to focus on macrophages to display the effect of CC10 on fgl2 expression and eventually mice survival. We entirely agree there may be other possibilities for a protective effect of CC10 to contribute to the disease process. This is worth further studies. The potential receptor of CC10 has not been revealed yet. Our previous study have demonstrated that CC10 have effect of dendritic cells in allergic rhinitis (34) . In this research, we evaluated the effect of CC10 on macrophages functions and found Fgl2 was substantially down-regulated upon CC10 treatment, therefore, we speculate that potential CC10 receptor may be also expressed on macrophages. The potential target of CC10 on other immune cells cannot be excluded. DNA microarray analysis is one of the most powerful approaches for the potential identification of unexpected genes involved in pathogenic processes. By using this approach, HMGbox transcription factor 1 (HBP1) was found to be one of the most downregulated genes after CC10 treatment of THP-1 cells. HBP1 is a well-described transcriptional repressor that modulates expression of genes involved in cell cycle progression. In a recent study, it was found that HBP1 is a direct target of miR-21 and confirmed that HBP1 modulates the inhibitory function of miR-21-ASO in hepatosteatosis and carcinogenesis simultaneously (23) . HBP1 is an endogenous inhibitor of the Wnt signaling pathway in both normal and cancer cells. The tumor suppressor role of HBP1 has been reported in some malignancies, such as oral cancer and glioma (35) . However, an association between HBP1 and Fgl2 has not been investigated yet. The current study clearly demonstrated that CC10 protects against MHV-3 induced FH via suppression of Fgl2 expression. Such effects might be mediated by HBP1. However, the functional status of HBP1 in the CC10 pathway requires further research, and such studies are conducting in our laboratory. In conclusion, we demonstrated that CC10 could limit the immunopathological damage in MHV-3-induced FH mice. Our results suggest that enhancing CC10 expression by an immunotherapeutic approach might be an effective treatment for FH. HY performed all the described experiments and wrote the manuscript. YL assisted with some experiments, analyzed experimental results, and edited the manuscript. HW analyzed experimental results. XW reviewed and edited the manuscript. JH, WY, DX, XL, GS, and QN provided experimental help and design.

What is fulminant hepatitis?

Factors Associated With Mental Health Outcomes Among Health Care Workers Exposed to Coronavirus Disease 2019 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7090843/ SHA: 0a08fddd9dcee1b1254a05b49113521bbc423ccd Authors: Lai, Jianbo; Ma, Simeng; Wang, Ying; Cai, Zhongxiang; Hu, Jianbo; Wei, Ning; Wu, Jiang; Du, Hui; Chen, Tingting; Li, Ruiting; Tan, Huawei; Kang, Lijun; Yao, Lihua; Huang, Manli; Wang, Huafen; Wang, Gaohua; Liu, Zhongchun; Hu, Shaohua Date: 2020-03-23 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.3976 License: cc-by Abstract: IMPORTANCE: Health care workers exposed to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be psychologically stressed. OBJECTIVE: To assess the magnitude of mental health outcomes and associated factors among health care workers treating patients exposed to COVID-19 in China. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional, survey-based, region-stratified study collected demographic data and mental health measurements from 1257 health care workers in 34 hospitals from January 29, 2020, to February 3, 2020, in China. Health care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 were eligible. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The degree of symptoms of depression, anxiety, insomnia, and distress was assessed by the Chinese versions of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire, the 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, the 7-item Insomnia Severity Index, and the 22-item Impact of Event Scale–Revised, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with mental health outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 1257 of 1830 contacted individuals completed the survey, with a participation rate of 68.7%. A total of 813 (64.7%) were aged 26 to 40 years, and 964 (76.7%) were women. Of all participants, 764 (60.8%) were nurses, and 493 (39.2%) were physicians; 760 (60.5%) worked in hospitals in Wuhan, and 522 (41.5%) were frontline health care workers. A considerable proportion of participants reported symptoms of depression (634 [50.4%]), anxiety (560 [44.6%]), insomnia (427 [34.0%]), and distress (899 [71.5%]). Nurses, women, frontline health care workers, and those working in Wuhan, China, reported more severe degrees of all measurements of mental health symptoms than other health care workers (eg, median [IQR] Patient Health Questionnaire scores among physicians vs nurses: 4.0 [1.0-7.0] vs 5.0 [2.0-8.0]; P = .007; median [interquartile range {IQR}] Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale scores among men vs women: 2.0 [0-6.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-7.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Insomnia Severity Index scores among frontline vs second-line workers: 6.0 [2.0-11.0] vs 4.0 [1.0-8.0]; P < .001; median [IQR] Impact of Event Scale–Revised scores among those in Wuhan vs those in Hubei outside Wuhan and those outside Hubei: 21.0 [8.5-34.5] vs 18.0 [6.0-28.0] in Hubei outside Wuhan and 15.0 [4.0-26.0] outside Hubei; P < .001). Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed participants from outside Hubei province were associated with lower risk of experiencing symptoms of distress compared with those in Wuhan (odds ratio [OR], 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.88; P = .008). Frontline health care workers engaged in direct diagnosis, treatment, and care of patients with COVID-19 were associated with a higher risk of symptoms of depression (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.11-2.09; P = .01), anxiety (OR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.22-2.02; P < .001), insomnia (OR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.92-4.60; P < .001), and distress (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.25-2.04; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this survey of heath care workers in hospitals equipped with fever clinics or wards for patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan and other regions in China, participants reported experiencing psychological burden, especially nurses, women, those in Wuhan, and frontline health care workers directly engaged in the diagnosis, treatment, and care for patients with COVID-19. Text: Abbreviation: PHQ-9, 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire; GAD-7, 7-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder; ISI, 7-item Insomnia Severity Index; IES-R, 22-item Impact of Event Abbreviation: IES-R, 22-item Impact of Event Scale-Revised; IQR, interquartile range. Hyperarousal, median (IQR) 6.0(2.0, 10.0) 6.0(2.0, 9.0) .29

What proportion of healthcare workers reported symptoms of depression?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

Do LAIV replicate at body temperature?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

What did the discovery process over two to three years reveal?

MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4687373/ SHA: f6fcf1a99cbd073c5821d1c4ffa3f2c6daf8ae29 Authors: Mackay, Ian M.; Arden, Katherine E. Date: 2015-12-22 DOI: 10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5 License: cc-by Abstract: The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Text: An email from Dr Ali Mohamed Zaki, an Egyptian virologist working at the Dr Soliman Fakeeh Hospital in Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) announced the first culture of a new coronavirus to the world. The email was published on the website of the professional emerging diseases (ProMED) network on 20 th September 2012 [1] (Fig. 1) and described the first reported case, a 60 year old man from Bisha in the KSA. This information led to the rapid discovery of a second case of the virus, this time in an ill patient in the United Kingdom, who had been transferred from Qatar for care [2] . The new virus was initially called novel coronavirus (nCoV) and subsequentlty entitled the Middle East respiratoy syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). As of 2 nd of September 2015, there have been 1,493 detections of viral RNA or virus-specific antibodies across 26 countries (Additional file 1: Figure S1 ) confirmed by the World Health Organization (WHO), with over a third of the positive people dying (at least 527, 35 %) [3] . Since that first report, a slow discovery process over the following two to three years revealed a virus that had infected over 90 % of adult dromedary camels (DC; Camelus dromedarius) in the KSA [4] , also DCs across the Arabian Peninsula and parts of Africa that are a source of DC imports for the KSA [5] . To date, MERS-CoV has not been detected in DCs tested in zoos or herds from other parts of the world [6] [7] [8] [9] . Occasionally, virus is transmitted from infected DCs to exposed humans. Subsequent transmission to other humans requires relatively close and prolonged exposure [10] . The first viral isolate was patented and concerns were raised that this would restrict access to both the virus and to viral diagnostics [11, 12] . However, sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics were quickly described and virus was made freely available subject to routine biosafety considerations [13] . Subsequent epidemiology and research has identified the cell receptor as exopeptidase dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4; also called CD26); that MERS-CoV has a broad tropism, replicating better in some cells lines and eliciting a more proinflammatory response than SARS-CoV; is widespread in DCs; has the potential to infect other animals and that MERS kills its human host more often than SARS did (20-40 % versus 9 % for SARS [14] ) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] . In humans, overt disease was given the name Middle East respiratory syndrome, with the acronym MERS. From intermittent animal-to-human spill-over events, the MERS-CoV spreads sporadically among people, causing more severe disease among older adults, especially males, with pre-existing diseases. The spread of MERS-CoV among humans has often been associated with outbreaks in hospitals, with around 20 % of all cases to date involving healthcare workers (HCWs). Although DCs appear to suffer the equivalent of a 'common cold' from MERS-CoV infection, in humans, the virus can be a more serious and opportunistic pathogen associated with the death of up to 40 % of reported cases. It has yet to be established whether infections thought to have been acquired from an animal source produce a more severe outcome than those spread between humans [20] . Studies have established that the mean incubation period for MERS is five to six days, ranging from two to 16 days, with 13 to 14 days between when illness begins in one person and subsequently spreads to another [21] [22] [23] [24] . Among those with progressive illness, the median time to death is 11 to 13 days, ranging from five to 27 days [23, 24] . Fever and gastrointestinal symptoms may form a prodrome, after which symptoms decline, only to be followed by a more severe systemic and respiratory syndrome [25, 26] . The first WHO case definition [27] defined probable cases of MERS based on the presence of febrile illness, cough and requirement for hospitalization with suspicion of lower respiratory tract (LRT) involvement. It also included roles for contact with a probable or confirmed case or for travel or residence within the Arabian Peninsula. If strictly adhered to, only the severe syndrome would be subject to laboratory testing, which was the paradigm early on [21] . From July 2013, the revised WHO case definition included the importance of seeking out and understanding the role of asymptomatic cases and from June 2014, the WHO definition more clearly stated that a confirmed case included any person whose sample was RT-PCR positive for MERS-CoV, or who produced a seroconversion, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms. [28] [29] [30] Apart from the WHO and the KSA Ministry of Health reports, asymptomatic or subclinical cases of MERS-CoV infection were documented in the scientific literature although not always as often as occurred early on [31, 32] . The KSA definition of a case became more strict on 13 th May 2014, relying on the presence of both clinical features and laboratory confirmation [33] . Testing of asymptomatic people was recommended against from December 2014 [34] , reinforced by a case definition released by the KSA Ministry of Health in June 2015 [35] . The KSA has been the source of 79 % of human cases. Severe MERS is notable for its impact among older men with comorbid diseases including diabetes mellitus, cirrhosis and various lung, renal and cardiac conditions [36] [37] [38] . Interestingly in June 2015, an outbreak in South Korea followed a similar distribution [39, 40] . Among laboratory confirmed cases, fever, cough and upper respiratory tract (URT) signs and symptoms usually occur first, followed within a week by progressive LRT distress and lymphopaenia [37] . Patients often present to a hospital with pneumonia, or worse, and secondary bacterial infections have been reported [37, 41] . Disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiorgan system failure [37] . MERS has reportedly killed approximately 35 % of all reported cases, 42 % of cases in the KSA, yet only 19 % of cases in South Korea, where mortality ranged from 7 % among younger age groups to 40 % among those aged 60 years and above [42] ; all may be inflated values with asymptomatic or mild infections sometimes not sought or not reported [34] . General supportive care is key to managing severe cases [43] . Children under the age of 14 years are rarely reported to be positive for MERS-CoV, comprising only 1.1 % (n = 16) of total reported cases. Between 1 st September 2012 and 2 nd December 2013, a study described the then tally of paediatric cases in the KSA, which stood at 11 (two to 16 years of age; median 13 years); nine were asymptomatic (72 %) and one infant died [44] . In Amman, Jordan, 1,005 samples from hospitalized children under the age of two years with fever and/or respiratory signs and symptoms were tested but none were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, despite being collected at a similar time to the first known outbreak of MERS-CoV in the neighbouring town of Al-Zarqa [45] . A second trimester stillbirth occurred in a pregnant woman during an acute respiratory illness and while not RT-rtPCR positive, the mother did subsequently develop antibodies to MERS-CoV, suggestive of recent infection [46] . Her exposure history to a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive relative and an antibody-reactive husband, her incubation period and her symptom history met the WHO criteria for being a probable MERS-CoV case [46] . Diagnostic methods were published within days of the ProMED email announcing the first MERS case [47] , including several now gold standard in-house RT-rtPCR assays (Fig. 2 ) as well as virus culture in Vero and LLC-MK2 cells [18, 47, 48] . A colorectal adenocarcinoma (Caco-2) epithelial cell line has since been recommended for isolation of infections MERS-CoV [49] . We previously [18] .). Open reading frames are indicated as yellow rectangles bracketed by terminal untranslated regions (UTR; grey rectangles). FS-frame-shift. Predicted regions encompassing recombination break-points are indicated by orange pills. Created using Geneious v8.1 [211] and annotated using Adobe Illustrator. Beneath this is a schematic depicting the location of RT-PCR primers (blue arrows indicate direction) and oligoprobes (green rectangles) used in the earliest RT-rtPCR screening assays and conventional, semi-nested (three primers) RT-PCR confirmatory sequencing assays [47, 48] . Publication order is noted by first [27 th September 2012; red] and second [6 th December 2012; orange] coloured rectangles; both from Corman et al. [47, 48] Those assays recommended by the WHO are highlighted underneath by yellow dots [53] . The NSeq reverse primer has consistently contained one sequence mismatch with some MERS-CoV variants. An altered version of that from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] reviewed the broad tropism of MERS-CoV [5] . However, as is well described, cell culture is a slow, specialised and insensitive method [50] while PCR-based techniques are the preferred method for MERS-CoV detection. The first open reading frames (ORF 1a and 1b; Fig. 2 ) have become a key diagnostic and taxonomic target for CoV species identification. With less than 80 % identity between the amino acid sequence of MERS ORF 1ab and betacoronavirus relatives, Tylonycteris bat HKU4 and Pipistrellus bat HKU5, it can be concluded that it is a novel and distinct virus. MERS-CoV is predicted to encode ten open reading frames with 5' and 3' untranslated regions [51] . The structural proteins include the spike (S), envelope (E), membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) [52] . The products of ORF1a and ORF1b are predicted to encode nonstructural proteins. The majority of specimen testing to date has employed validated RT-rtPCR assays shown to be sensitive and specific [47, 48, 53] . The RealStar® kit uses these WHOrecommended assays [54] . The target sequences of these screening assays have not changed among genomes examined until at least mid-2015 (IMM observation). Other RT-rtPCR assays have been developed and validated for use as laboratory-based diagnostic tools [55] [56] [57] . Additionally, loop-mediated [58, 59] or recombinase polymerase [60] isothermal assays have been designed for field deployment. The detection of MERS-CoV antigen has not been common to date but the combination of short turnaround time from test to result, high throughput and identification of viral proteins makes this an attractive option. Detection of viral proteins rather than viral RNA indicates the likely presence of infectious virus. The first rapid immunochromatographic tool described could detect recombinant MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein from DC nasal swabs with 94 % sensitivity and 100 % specificity compared to RT-rtPCR [61] . A different approach used a monoclonal antibody-based capture ELISA targeting the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid protein with a sensitivity of 10 3 TCID 50 and 100 % specificity [62] . Demonstration of a seroconversion to a MERS-CoV infection meets the current WHO definition of a case so optimized and thoroughly validated sero-assays employed alongside good clinical histories are useful to both identify prior MERS-CoV infection and help support transmission studies. Because serology testing is, by its nature, retrospective, it is usual to detect a viral footprint, in the form of antibodies, in the absence of any signs or symptoms of disease and often in the absence of any viral RNA [63] . Strategic, widespread sero-surveys of humans using samples collected after 2012 are infrequent. Much of the Arabian Peninsula and all of the Horn of Africa lack baseline data describing the proportion of the community who may have been infected by a MERS-CoV. However, sero-surveys have had widespread use in elucidating the role of DCs as a transmission source for MERS-CoV. Because of the identity shared between DC and human MERS-CoV (see Molecular epidemiology: using genomes to understand outbreaks), serological assays for DC sero-surveys should be transferrable to human screening with minimal re-configuration. Also, no diagnostically relevant variation in neutralization activity have been found from among a range of circulating tested MERS-CoV isolates and sera, so whole virus or specific protein-based sero-assays should perform equivalently in detecting serological responses to the single MERS-CoV serotype [49] . The development of robust serological assays requires reliable panels of wellcharacterized animal or human sera, including those positive for antibodies specific to MERS-CoV, as well as to likely sources of cross-reaction [64] . Obtaining these materials was problematic and slowed the development and commercialization of antibody detection assays for human testing [64] . A number of commercial ELISA kits, immunofluorescent assays (IFA) kits, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies have been released [31, [65] [66] [67] [68] . Initially, conventional IFAs were used for human sero-surveys. These relied on MERS-CoV-infected cell culture as an antigen source, detecting the presence of human anti-MERS-CoV IgG, IgM or neutralizing antibodies in human samples [18, 48, 69] . No sign of MERS-CoV antibodies was found among 2,400 sera from patients visiting Hospital in Jeddah, from 2010 through 2012, prior to the description of MERS-CoV [18] . Nor did IFA methods detect any sign of prior MERS-CoV infection among a small sample of 130 healthy blood donors from another Hospital in Jeddah (collected between Jan and Dec 2012) [70] . Of 226 slaughterhouse workers, only eight (3.5 %) were positive by IFA, and those sera could not be confirmed by virus neutralization (NT) test. The study indicated that HCoV-HKU1 was a likely source of crossreactive antigen in the whole virus IFA [70] . Whole virus MERS-CoV IFA also suffered from some cross-reactivity with convalescent SARS patient sera and this could not be resolved by an NT test which was also cross-reactive [71] . IFA using recombinant proteins instead of whole-virus IFA, has been shown to be a more specific tool [31] . Since asymptomatic zoonoses have been posited [72] , an absence of antibodies to MERS-CoV among some humans who have regular and close contact with camels may reflect the rarity of actively infected animals at butcheries, a limited transmission risk associated with slaughtering DCs [70] , a pre-existing cross-protective immune status or some other factor(s) resulting in a low risk of disease and concurrent seroconversion developing after exposure in this group. IFA using recombinant proteins instead. Some sero-assays have bypassed the risks of working with infectious virus by creating transfected cells expressing recombinant portions of the MERS-CoV nucleocapsid and spike proteins [48, 73] , or using a recombinant lentivirus expressing MERS-CoV spike protein and luciferase [74, 75] . A pseudo particle neutralization (ppNT) assay has seen widespread used in animal studies and was at least as sensitive as the traditional microneutralization (MNT) test. [10, 74, [76] [77] [78] ] Studies using small sample numbers and ppNT found no evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody in sera from 158 children with LRT infections between May 2010 and May 2011, 110 sera from 19 to 52 year old male blood donors and 300 selfidentified animal workers from the Jazan Region of the KSA during 2012 [79, 80] . Similarly, a study of four herdsmen in contact with an infected DC herd in Al-Ahsa, eight people who had intermittent contact with the herd, 30 veterinary surgeons and support staff who were not exposed to the herd, three unprotected abattoir workers in Al-Ahsa and 146 controls who were not exposed to DCs in any professional role, found none with serological evidence of past MERS-CoV infection using the ppNT assay [10] . A delay in the neutralizing antibody response to MERS-CoV infection was associated with increased disease severity in South Korea cases with most responses detectable by week three of illness while others, even though disease was severe, did not respond for four or more weeks [81] . The implications for our ability to detect any response in mild or asymptomatic cases was not explored but may be a signifcant factor in understanding exposure in the wider community. A Jordanian outbreak of acute LRT disease in a hospital in 2012 was retrospectively found to be associated with MERS-CoV infection, initially using RT-rtPCR, but subsequently, and on a larger scale, through positivity by ELISA and IFA or MNT test. [46, 82, 83] This outbreak predated the first case of MERS in the KSA. The ELISA used a recombinant nucleocapsid protein from the group 2 betacoronavirus bat-CoV HKU5 to identify antibodies against the equivalent crossreactive MERS-CoV protein [71] . It was validated using 545 sera collected from people with prior HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HRV, HMPV or influenza A(H1N1) infections but was reportedly less specific than the recombinant IFA discussed above. It was still considered an applicable tool for screening large sample numbers [82] . A protein microarray expressing the S1 protein subunit has also been validated and widely used for DC testing [5, 84] . Detection of MERS-CoV infection using ELISA or S1 subunit protein microarray [84] is usually followed by confirmatory IFA and/ or a plaque-reduction neutralization (PRNT) [69, 70, 85] or MNT test. [74, 85, 86] This confirmatory process aims toensure the antibodies detected are able to specifically neutralize the intended virus and are not more broadly reactive to other coronaviruses found in DCs (bovine CoV, BCoV) or humans (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV). In the largest study of human sera, a tiered diagnostic process assigned both recombinant IFA and recombinant ELISA positive sera to 'stage 1' seropositivity. A stage 2 seropositive result additionally required a suitably titred PRNT result [87] . The study found 15 sera collected in 2012 to 2013 from 10,009 (0.2 %) people in 13 KSA provinces contained MERS-CoV antibodies, but significantly higher proportions in occurred in camel shepherds (two of 87; 2.3 %) and slaughterhouse workers (five of 140; 3.6 %) [87] . Contemporary surveys are needed. MERS-CoV does not appear to be easily transmitted from DCs to humans, or perhaps it is [72] , but generally does not trigger a detectable immune response if only mild disease or asymptomatic infection results. Serology assays are in need of further validation in this area so care is required when moving newly developed diagnostic serology algorithms from a research setting to one that informs public health decisions. This was reinforced when a false positive US case, purported to have been infected after a handshake and two face-to-face meetings, did not withstand further confirmatory analysis using a more specific, NT assay and was subsequently retracted [88, 89] . The WHO recommends sampling from the LRT for MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR testing, especially when sample collection is delayed by a week or more after onset of symptoms. [53] LRT samples are also best for attempting isolation of infectious virus, although the success of culture is reduced when disease persists [49] . Recommended sample types include bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), tracheal/tracheobronchial aspirate, pleural fluid and sputum [53, 90] . Fresh samples yield better diagnostic results than refrigerated material [69] and if delays in testing of ≥72 h are likely, samples (except for blood) should be frozen at −70°C [90] . If available, lung biopsy or autopsy tissues can also be tested [53] . The URT is a less invasive and more convenient sampling site however, and an oropharyngeal and throat swab or a nasopharyngeal aspirate/wash are recommended when URT sampling is to be conducted [90] . Paired sera, collected two to three weeks apart are preferable for serological testing while a single sample is suggested to be sufficient if collected two weeks after onset of disease or a single serum collected during the first 10-12 days if conducting RT-rtPCR [53, 90] . Human urine and stool have been found to contain MERS-CoV RNA 12 to 26 days after symptom onset [25, 69, 91] and are listed as samples that should be considered [53, 90] . In two cases that arrived in the Netherlands, urine was RT-rtPCR negative but faeces was weakly positive and sera were RT-rtPCR positive for five days or more [25] . The finding of MERS-CoV viral RNA in serum provides an avenue for retrospective PCR-based studies if respiratory samples are unavailable [83] . RNAaemia may also correlate with disease severity; signs of virus were cleared from the serum of a recovered patient, yet lingered until the death of another [92] . Clinically suspected MERS cases may return negative results by RT-rtPCR. Data have shown one or more negative URT samples may be contradicted by further URT sampling or the use of LRT samples, which is preferred [2, 43, 93] . Higher viral loads occur in the LRT compared to the URT. [22, 69, 88, 94] This fits with the observation that the majority of disease symptoms are reported to manifest as systemic and LRT disease [21] . However, on occasion, even LRT specimens from MERS cases may initially be negative, only to later become positive by RT-PCR [95] . This may be due to poor sampling when a cough is absent or non-productive or because the viral load is low [95] . Despite this both the largest human MERS-CoV studies [32, [96] [97] [98] and smaller ones [22, 25, 99] , use samples from the URT. It is then noteworthy that one study reported an association between higher loads in the URT and worse clinical outcome including intensive care and death [94] . At writing, no human data exist to define whether the virus replicates solely or preferentially in the LRT or URT, or replicates in other human tissues in vivo although MERS-CoV RNA has been detected from both the URT and LRT in a macaque monkey model [100] .The distribution of DPP4 in the human upper airways is also not well described. Individual human case studies report long periods of viral shedding, sometimes intermittently and not necessarily linked to the presence of disease symptoms. [25, 69, 99, 101] In one instance, a HCW shed viral RNA for 42 days in the absence of disease [99] . It is an area of high priority to better understand whether such cases are able to infect others. Over three quarters of MERS cases shed viral RNA in their LRT specimens (tracheal aspirates and sputum) for at least 30 days, while only 30 % of contacts were still shedding RNA in their URT specimens [91, 102] . In the only study to examine the effect of sample type on molecular analysis, 64 nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA; an URT sample), 30 tracheal aspirates, 13 sputa and three BAL were examined. The tracheal aspirates and BAL returned the highest viral load values followed by NPA and sputum. Unsurprisingly, higher viral loads generally paralleled whole genome sequencing and culture success and, in NPA testing, were significantly correlated with severe disease and death [49, 94, 103] . This study demonstrated the importance of LRT sampling for whole genome sequencing. When tested, samples positive for MERS-CoV are often negative for other pathogens [2, 25, 93, 104] . However, many studies make no mention of additional testing for endemic human respiratory viruses [21, 23, 73, 105] . When viruses are sought, they have included human herpesvirus (HHV), rhinoviruses (HRV), enteroviruses (EV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenzavirus types 1, 2 and 3 (PIVs),influenzaviruses (IFVs), endemic HCoVs, adenoviruses (AdVs) metapneumovirus (MPV) and influenza A\H1N1 virus; co-detections with MERS-CoV have been found on occasion [2, 22, 37, 69, 97] . Bacterial testing is sometimes included (for example, for Legionella and Pneumococcus) but the impact of bacterial co-presence is also unclear [22, [104] [105] [106] . Further testing of the LRT sample from the first MERS case used IFA to screen for some viruses (negative for IFV, PIVs, RSV and AdVs) and RT-PCR for others (negative for AdV, EVs, MPV and HHVs) [18] . RT-PCR also detected MERS-CoV. The WHO strongly recommends testing for other respiratory pathogens [53] but with this recommendation often discounted, there are limited data to address the occurrence and impact of co-infections or alternative viral diagnoses among both MERS cases and their contacts. Little is known of other causes of MERS-like pneumonia in the KSA or of the general burden of disease due to the known classical respiratory viruses. Testing of adult pilgrims performing the Hajj in 2012 to 2014 has not detected any MERS-CoV. In 2012, nasal swabs from 154 pilgrims collected prior to leaving for or departing from the KSA were tested [47] . In 2013, testing was significantly scaled up with 5,235 nasopharyngeal swabs from 3,210 incoming pilgrims and 2,025 swabs from outgoing pilgrims tested [98] . It should be noted that most pilgrims arrived from MERS-free countries. A further 114 swabs were taken from pilgrims with influenza-like illness [96, 107] . In earlier Hajj gatherings, it was found that influenza viruses circulated widely, whilst other viruses, often rhinoviruses, circulated more selectively, interpreted as indicating their importation along with foreign pilgrims. [107] [108] [109] Over time, increased influenza vaccination has been credited for a fall in the prevalence of influenza like illnesses among Hajj pilgrims. [110] A LRT sample is often not collected for these studies [98, 107, 109] , so false negative findings are a possibility although little is known about the initial site of MERS-CoV infection and replication; it may have been assumed it was the LRT because disease was first noticed there but the URT may be the site of the earliest replication. In Jeddah between March and July 2014 (hereafter called the Jeddah-2014 outbreak; Fig. 3 ), there was a rapid increase in MERS cases, accompanied by intense screening; approximately 5,000 samples from in and around the region were tested in a month yielding around 140 MERS-CoV detections (~3 % prevalence) [111] . Among 5,065 individuals sampled and tested across the KSA between October 2012 and September 2013,108 (2.1 %) detections were made in a hospital-centric population which included hospitalized cases (n = 2,908; 57.4 %), their families (n = 462; 9.1 %) and associated HCWs (n = 1,695; 33.5 %) [32] . Among the detections, 19 (17.8 %) were HCWs and 10 (9.3 %) were family contacts [32] . The 2-3 % prevalence of active MERS-CoV infections is not dissimilar to the hospital-based prevalence of other human CoVs. [112] However, the proportion of deaths among those infected with MERS-CoV is much higher than that known for the HCoVs NL63, HKU1, 229E or OC43 in other countries, and even above that for SARS-CoV; it is not a virus that could reasonably be described as a "storm in a teacup". It is the low transmission rate that has prevented worldwide spread, despite many "opportunities". Very early in the MERS outbreak, some animals were highly regarded as either the reservoir or intermediate host(s) of MERS-CoV with three of the first five cases having contact with DCs [73, 113, 114] . Today, animal MERS-CoV infections must be reported to the world organization for animal health as an emerging disease [115] . A summary of the first MERS cases reported by the WHO defined animal contact with humans as being direct and within 10 days prior to symptom onset [20] . This definition made no specific allowance for acquisition from DCs through a droplet-based route, which is very likely route for acquisition of a virus that initially and predominantly causes respiratory disease [23] . Camels are known to produce high levels of MERS-CoV RNA in their URT and lungs [116] . Providing support for a droplet transmission route and perhaps indicating the presence of RNA in smaller, drier droplet nuclei, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in a high volume air sample collected from a barn housing an infected DC [117] . The precise source from which humans acquire MERS-CoV remains poorly studied but it seems likely that animal and human behavioural factors may play roles (Fig. 3) [118] . These factors may prove important for human cases who do not describe any DC contact [119] nor any contact with a confirmed case. Whether the WHO definition of animal contact is sufficient to identify exposure to this respiratory virus remains unclear. Wording focuses on consumption of DC products but does not specifically ascribe risk to a droplet route for acquisition of MERS-CoV from DC [120] . Some MERS patients are listed in WHO disease notices as being in proximity to DCs or farms, but the individuals have not described coming into contact with the animals. No alternative path for acquiring infection is reported in many of these instances. What constitutes a definition of "contact" during these interviews has been defined for one study [72] . Despite this lack of clarity, the WHO consider that evidence linking MERS-CoV transmission between DCs to humans is irrefutable (Fig. 4) [120] . The possibility that bats were an animal host of MERS-CoV was initially widely discussed because of the existing diversity of coronaviruses known to reside among them [121] [122] [123] [124] . Conclusive evidence supporting bats as a source for human infections by MERS-CoV has yet to be found, but bats do appear to host ancestral representatives [53, 125] . However, these are not variants of the same virus nor always within the same phylogenetic lineage as MERS-CoV; they are each a genetically distinct virus. Bat-to-human infection by MERS-CoV is a purely speculative event. The only piece of MERS-CoV-specific evidence pointing to bats originates from amplification of a 190 nt fragment of the RNAdependent RNA polymerase gene of the MERS-CoV genome, identified in a faecal pellet from an insectivorous Emballonuridae bat, Taphozous perforatus found in Bisha, the KSA [121] . While very short, the sequence of the fragment defined it as a diagnostic discovery. Subsequently a link to DCs was reported [85] and that link has matured into a verified association [38, 126] (Fig. 4) . (See figure on previous page.) Fig. 3 Monthly detections of MERS-CoV (blue bars) and of cases who died (red bars) with some dates of interest marked for 2012 to 4 th September 2015. An approximation of when DC calving season [128] and when recently born DCs are weaned is indicated. Spring (green) and summer (orange) in the Arabian Peninsula are also shaded. Note the left-hand y-axis scale for 2014 and 2015 which is greater than for 2012/13. Sources of these public data include the WHO, Ministries of Health and FluTrackers [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] . Modified and reprinted from Mackay IM, Arden KE. Middle East respiratory syndrome: An emerging coronavirus infection tracked by the crowd. Virus Res 2015 Vol 202:60-88 with permission from Elsevier [5] DCs, which make up 95 % of all camels, have a central presence in the Arabian Peninsula where human-DC contact ranges from little to close [119] . Contact may be commonplace and could occur in variety of ways (Fig. 4a) . There are several large well-attended festivals, races, sales and parades which feature DCs and DCs are also kept and bred close to populated areas in the KSA [127, 128] . DC milk and meat are widely consumed and the older DC is an animal of ritual significance after the Hajj pilgrimage [129] . However, MERS-CoV infection frequency is reportedly much lower than is the widespread and frequent habit of eating, drinking and preparing DC products. Daily ingestion of fresh unpasteurized DC milk is common among the desert Bedouin and many others in the KSA. DC urine is also consumed or used for supposed health benefits. Despite camel butchery being a local occupation, neither butchers nor other at-risk groups are identifiable among MERS cases; this may simply be a reporting issue rather than an unexplainable absence of MERS. A small case-control study published in 2015 identified direct DC contact, and not ingestion of products, to be associated with onset of MERS [38] . The first sero-survey of livestock living in the Middle East region was conducted during 2012-2013 [85] . DCs were sampled from a mostly Canary Island-born herd and from Omani DCs (originally imported from the Horn of Africa) [85] . A neutralising antibody assay found only 10 % of strongly seropositive Canary Island [5] . b Camel-to-human infections appear to be infrequent, while human-to-human spread of infection is regularly facilitated by poor IPC in healthcare settings where transmission is amplified, accounting for the bulk of cases. There are human MERS cases that do not fall into either category of source and it is unclear if these acquired infection through some entirely separate route, or from cases that escaped diagnosis. c Hypothetical ways in which subclinical (when infection may not meet a previously defined clinical threshold of signs and/or symptoms) or asymptomatic (no obvious signs or measured, noticed or recalled symptoms of illness) MERS-CoV infection may be implicated in transmission DC sera could neutralise MERS-CoV while all Omani DC sera had high levels of specific MERS-CoV neutralizing antibody [85] . This indicated that DCs had in the past been infected by MERS-CoV, or a very similar virus. Since this study, a host of peer-reviewed reports have looked at both DCs and other animals, and the possibility that they may host MERS-CoV infection. Seropositive DCs have been found throughout the Arabian Peninsula including Oman, the KSA, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait as well as Sudan, Somalia, Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia in Africa and the Canary Islands [85, [130] [131] [132] [133] [134] . Other animals tested include sheep, cows, pigs, horses, donkeys, mules, birds, water buffalo, goats, Bactrian camels, llamas and guanaco (south American camelids) but none had detectable neutralising antibody against MERS-CoV [4, 74, 78, 85, 86, 135, 136] . No virology or serology studies of human samples from areas in Africa where there are camels with a history of MERS-CoV have been reported to date. However,an absence of unexplained pneumonia that may be attributable to MERS-CoV infection may not signal the absence of virus among humans in each country but simply reflect a lack of expensive epidemiology studies conducted by resource-poor countries. It is thus unclear whether MERS-CoV, or an antigenically related CoV, is an unrecognized pathogen in these regions, perhaps circulating for even longer than it has been known in the Arabian Peninsula [133] . MERS-CoV RNA has also been detected in DC samples, and recovery of infectious virus has also been achieved from DC samples [4, 77, 117, 132, [137] [138] [139] [140] [141] . From some of these, full or majority length genomes of MERS-CoV have been sequenced [77, 137, 138] . DC versions of MERS-CoV were found to be as similar to each other, as were variants detected from different humans over time and across distance. Antibody screening assays have also detected crossreactive antibodies in sera. These were identified as such by screening sera against similar viruses, for example BCoV or HCoV-OC43 (as an antigenic facsimile for BCoV). It is possible that other MERS-CoV-like viruses also reside within DCs, but this does not detract from the definitive finding of MERS-CoV genetic sequences in both DCs and humans [117, 142, 143] . Screening studies have shown that juvenile DCs are more often positive for virus or viral RNA while older DCs are more likely to be seropositive and RNA or virus negative [76, 77, 144] . In adult DCs, MERS-CoV RNA has been detected among animals with pre-existing antibody, suggesting re-infection is possible [77, 144] . Viral loads among positive DCs can be very high [4, 76, 77, 139, 144] and DCs have been found positive both when ill with URT respiratory signs [77, 117, 142, 145] or when apparently healthy [137] . These findings indicate DCs host natural MERS-CoV infections. Furthermore, stored DC sera have revealed signs of MERS-CoV in DCs which date back over three decades (the earliest collected in 1983) [4, 133, 135] . Older sera have not been tested and so precisely how long DCs have been afflicted by MERS-CoV, whether the virus is enzootic among them, introduced to them decades or centuries ago from bats in Africa or the Arabian Peninsula, or they are the subject of regular but short-lived viral incursions from an as yet unknown host, cannot be answered. Researchers sought to determine a direction for infection; were DCs transmitting virus to humans or were humans infecting DCs? At a Qatari site, a farm owner and his employee became ill in mid-October 2013 and tested positive for MERS-CoV RNA in a sputum and throat swab sample, respectively. RT-rtPCRs found MERS-CoV RNA in 11 of 14 positive DC nasal swabs at the farm; six (43 %) positive by two or more assays [138] . The results indicated a recent outbreak had occurred in this herd; the first indication of MERS-CoV RNA found within DCs with a temporal association to human infections. Three positive DC samples were confirmed by sequencing a 358 nt portion of the spike gene; these sequences were identical to each other, again with close homology to other human and DC MERS-CoV sequences [138] . The DCs and human contacts yielded ORF1a and ORF4b sequences differing by only a single nucleotide each, clustering closely with the Hafr-Al-Batin_1_2013 variant [138] . Subsequent case studies found evidence of a concurrent human and DC infection and the direction of that infection was inferred to be from the ill DCs and to their human owners [117, 142, 146] . Partial genome sequences indicated that a human and a MERS-CoV RT-rtPCR positive DC had been infected by a variant of the same virus, harbouring the same distinct pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms. [142] All nine DC in the owner's herd, serially sampled, reacted in a recombinant S1 antigen ELISA, with the two animals that had been RT-rtPCR positive showing a small, verifiable rise in antibody titre [142] . A rise in titre theoretically begins 10 to 21 days after DC infection [142] . The authors suggested that the rise in titre in DC sera which occurred alongside a declining RNA load, while the patient was actively ill and hospitalized, indicated that the DCs were infected first followed by the owner [117, 142] . BCoV antibodies were also present, and rising in one of the two RT-rtPCR positive animals but no animal's antibodies could neutralise BCoV infection [142] . Camel calving season occurs in the winter months (between late October and late February; Fig. 3 ) and this may be a time when there is increased risk to humans of spill-over due to new infections among naïve DC populations [128] . What role maternal camel antibody might play in delaying infection of calves remains unknown [128, 142] . Juvenile DCs appear to host active infection more often than adult DCs and thus the sacrificial slaughter of DCs, which must be five years of age or older (termed a thane), may not be accompanied by significant risk of exposure to infection. In contrast to earlier results, slaughterhouse workers who kill both younger and older DCs, may be an occupational group with significantly higher incidence of seropositivity to MERS-CoV when animals have active MERS-CoV infections [129, 139, [147] [148] [149] . Expanded virological investigations of African DCs may lead to more seropositive animals and geographic areas in which humans may be at risk. It is possible that there are areas where humans already harbour MERS-CoV infections that have not been identified because of an absence of laboratory surveillance. Virological investigations of bats may lead to findings of ancestral viruses and viral 'missing links' and identifying any other animal sources of zoonotic spread is important to inform options for reducing human exposures [56, 76] . Infectious MERS-CoV added to DC, goat or cow milk and stored at 4°C could be recovered at least 72 h later and, if stored at 22°C, recovery was possible for up to 48 h [150] . MERS-CoV titre decreased somewhat when recovered from milk at 22°C but pasteurization completely ablated MERS-CoV infectivity [150] . In a subsequent study, MERS-CoV RNA was identified in the milk, nasal secretion and faeces of DCs from Qatar [151] . A single study has examined the ability of MERS-CoV to survive in the environment [150] . Plastic or steel surfaces were inoculated with 10 6 TCID 50 of MERS-CoV at different temperature and relative humidity (RH) and virus recovery was attempted in cell culture. At high ambient temperature (30°C) and low RH (30 %) MERS-CoV remained viable for 24 h [150] . By comparison, a well known and efficently transmitted respiratory virus, influenza A virus, could not be recovered in culture beyond four hours under any conditions [150] . Aerosol experiments found MERS-CoV viability only decreased 7 % at low RH at 20°C. In comparison, influenza A virus decreased by 95 % [150] . MERS-CoV survival is inferior to that previously demonstrated for SARS-CoV [152] . For context, pathogenic bacteria can remain viable and airborne for 45 min in a coughed aerosol and can spread 4 m. MERS-CoV's ability to remain viable over long time periods gives it the capacity to thoroughly contaminate a room's surfaces when occupied by an infected and symptomatic patient [153] . Whether MERS-CoV can remain adrift and infectious for extended periods (truly airborne) remains unknown. Such findings expand our understanding of the possibilities for droplets to transmit respiratory viruses in many settings, including hospital waiting rooms, emergency departments, treatment rooms, open intensive care facilities and private patient rooms. The nature and quality of air exchange, circulation and filtration are important variables in risk measurement and reduction as is the use of negative pressure rooms to contain known cases. Droplet spread between humans is considered the mechanism of human-to-human transmission and the need for droplet precautions was emphasized after the Al-Ahsa hospital, the KSA and the South Korean outbreaks [21, 23, 154, 155] . By extrapolation, aerosol-generating events involving DCs (urination, defecation, and preparation and consumption of DC products) should be factored into risk measurement and reduction efforts and messaged using appropriate context. The provision of evidence supporting the best formulation of personal protective equipment to be worn by HCWs who receive, manage or conduct procedures on infectious cases remains a priority. MERS-CoV was found and characterized because of its apparent association with severe, and therefore more obvious, illness in humans; we were the canaries in the coal mine. Sero-assays and prospective cohort studies have yet to determine the extent to which milder or asymptomatic cases contribute to MERS-CoV transmission chains. However, transmission of MERS-CoV is defined as sporadic (not sustained), intra-familial, often healthcare associated, inefficient and requiring close and prolonged contact [22, 31, 63, 93, 97, 102, 156] In a household study, 14 of 280 (5 %) contacts of 26 MERS-CoV positive index patients were RNA or antibody positive; the rate of general transmission, even in outbreaks is around 3 % [31] . It seems that the majority of human cases of MERS-CoV, even when numbers appear to increase suddenly, do not readily transmit to more than one other human so to date, the localized epidemic of MERS-CoV has not been self-sustaining [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] . That is to say, the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) -the average number of infections caused by one infected individual in a fully susceptible populationhas been close to one throughout various clusters and outbreaks. If R 0 was greater than 1, a sustained increase in case numbers would be expected. Some R o calculations may be affected by incomplete case contact tracing, limited community testing and how a case is defined. That MERS has had a constant presence in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 is due to ongoing, sporadic spill-over events from DCs amplified by poorly controlled hospital outbreaks. The first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by acute LRT disease in a healthcare setting in Jordan. In stark contrast, a sero-survey of HCW who were sometimes in close and prolonged contact with the first, fatal MERS-CoV case in 2012 [162] , found none of the HCW had seroconverted four months later, despite an absence of eye protection and variable compliance with required PPE standards [162] . Early on in the MERS story, samples for testing were mostly collected from patients with severe illness and not those with milder acute respiratory tract infections. Contacts of confirmed MERS cases were often observed for clinical illness, but not tested. These omissions may have confounded our understanding of MERS-CoV transmission and biased early data towards higher numbers of seriously ill and hospitalized patients, inflating the apparent proportion of fatal cases. Case-control studies were not a focus. As testing paradigms changed and contacts were increasingly tested, more asymptomatic and mild infections were recognized [163] . A rise in the cases termed asymptomatic (which enlarge the denominator for calculations of the proportion of fatal cases, defined in [164] ) resulted in a drop in the proportion of fatal cases during the Jeddah-2014 outbreak. Historically, such rises are consistent with changing definitions and laboratory responses and clinical management of a newly discovered virus infection that was first noted only among the severely ill. Upon follow-up, over three-quarters of such MERS-CoV RNA positive people did recall having one or more symptoms at the time, despite being reported as asymptomatic [165] raising some question over the reliability of other reported data. The proportion of fatal MERS cases within the KSA compared to outside the KSA, as well as the age, and sex distribution change in different ways when comparing MERS outbreaks. Approximately 43 % of MERS cases (549 of 1277) in the KSA were fatal betwen 2012 and December 2015 while 21 % (72 of 330) died among those occurring outside of the KSA. The total number of male cases always outnumber females and the proportion of male deaths is always greater than the proportion of females who die. However the proportion of male deaths from total males with MERS is a similar figure to that for females. In the KSA, there is a greater proportion of younger males among cases and deaths than were observed from the 2015 South Korean or the Jeddah-2014 outbreaks (Additional file 2: Figure S2 ). Why these aspects have differed may be due to differences in the time to presentation and diagnosis, the nature and quality of supportive care, the way a person became infected (habits, exposure to a human or zoonotic source, viral load, route of infection) or the extent to which different populations are burdened by underlying diseases [40] . As a group, HCWs comprised 16 % of MERS cases in the KSA and South Korea. It is apparent that the weekly proportion of infected HCWs increases alongside each steep rise in overall detections (Fig. 5) . In May 2013, the WHO published guidelines for IPC during care of probable or confirmed cases of MERS-CoV infection in a healthcare setting [166] . This is explainable because to date, each case rise has been intimately associated with healthcare-facility related outbreaks [118] . These rises in MERS-CoV detections can decrease the average age during each event because HCWs are usually younger than inpatients with MERS. Healthcare facilities have been a regular target for suggested improvements aimed at improving infection prevention and control (IPC) procedures [115, 118] . Most of the analysis of MERS-CoV genetics has been performed using high throughput or "deep" sequencing methods for complete genome deduction [167] [168] [169] . MERS-CoV was the first subject of such widespread use of deep sequencing to study an emerging viral outbreak with global reach. The technique can produce genomic [207] [208] [209] . Earlier and subsequent versions of this chart are maintained on a personal blog [210] length coverage in a single experiment with highly repetitious measurement of each nucleotide position [52, 140] . Despite assays having been published early on, subgenomic sequencing, once the mainstay of viral outbreak studies, has less often been published during MERS-CoV characterization [48] . As more genomes from both humans and DCs have been characterized, two clades have become apparent; A and B (Fig. 6) . Clade A contains only human-derived MERS-CoV genomes from Jordan, while Clade B comprises the majority of human and camel genomes deduced thus far [168] . Two studies during 2015, one looking at Jeddah-2014 MERS-CoV variants and another looking at a variant exported from South Korea to China, have now identified signs of genetic recombination among MERS-CoV variants. While human and camel whole genome sequences have retained >99 % identity with each other, members of genetically distinct lineages can and do swap genetic material when suitable conditions and coinfections co-occur [170] [171] [172] . Shared identity implies that the major source for human acquisition is the DC, rather than another animal, although more testing of other animal species is needed to confirm that conclusion. Over a month, a DC virus sequenced on different occasions did not change at all indicating a degree of genomic stability in its host, supporting that DCs are the natural, rather than intermediate, host for the MERS-CoV we know today [77] . To date, recombination has been localised to breakpoints near the boundary between ORF1a and ORF1b regions, within the spike gene [170] and in the ORF1b region (Fig. 2) [172] . It is not unexpected that recombination should occur since it is well known among other CoVs [124] and because the majority of MERS-CoV whole genomes collected from samples spanning three years (2012-2015) and from humans, camels and different countries have shown close genetic identity to each other, with just enough subtle variation to support outbreak investigations so long as whole genome sequencing is applied [52, 77, 135, 138, 168, [173] [174] [175] . Changes in genome sequence may herald alterations to virus transmissibility, replication, persistence, lethality or response to future drugs. If we have prior knowledge of the impact of genetic changes because of thorough characterization studies, we can closely Fig. 6 The genetic relationship between MERS-CoV nucleotide sequences (downloaded from GenBank using the listed accession numbers and from virological.org [212] ). This neighbour joining tree was created in MEGA v6 using an alignment of human and DCderived MERS-CoV sequences (Geneious v8.1 [211] ). Clades are indicated next to dark (Clade A) or pale (Clade B) blue vertical bars. Camel icons denote genomes from DCs. Healthcare or community outbreaks are boxed and labelled using previously described schemes [212, 213] monitor the genomic regions and better understand any changes in transmission or disease patterns as they occur. Genetic mutations noted during the largest of human outbreaks, Jeddah-2014, did not impart any major replicative or immunomodulatory changes when compared to earlier viral variants in vitro [156, 176] . However, we understand very little of the phenotypic outcomes that result from subtle genetic change in MERS-CoV genomes. To date no clinical relevance or obvious in vivo changes to viral replication, shedding or transmission has been reported or attributed to mutations or to new recombinant viruses [156] . But vigilance and larger, more contemporary and in vivo studies are needed. Genome sequence located to a distinct clade were identified from an Egyptian DC that was probably imported from Sudan. This does not fit into either of the current clades [125, 168, 177] . A virus sequenced from a Neoromicia capensis bat was more closely related to MERS-CoV than other large bat-derived sequences had been to that point, but the genome of a variant of a MERS-CoV has yet to be discovered and deduced from any bat [125] . Analyses of MERS-CoV genomes have shown that most single nucleotide differences among variants were located in the last third of the genome (Fig. 2) , which encodes the spike protein and accessory proteins [168] . At least nine MERS-CoV genomes contained amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein and codons 158 (N-terminal region), 460 (RBD), 1020 (in heptad repeat 1), 1202 and 1208 bear investigation as markers of adaptive change [140, 169] . The spike protein had not changed in the recombinant MERS-CoV genome identified in China in 2015 but was reported to have varied at a higher rate than that for complete MERS-CoV genomes, among South Korean variants [172, 178] . This highlights that subgenomic regions may not always contain enough genetic diversity to prove useful for differentiating viral variants. Despite this, one assay amplifying a 615 nucleotide fragment of the spike S2 domain gene for Sanger sequencing agreed with the results generated by the sequencing of a some full genomes and was useful to define additional sequence groupings [177] . Genomic sequence can also be used to define the geographic boundaries of a cluster or outbreak and monitor its progress, based on the similarity of the variants found among infected humans and animals when occurring together, or between different sites and times (Fig. 6 ) [169] . This approach was employed when defining the geographically constrained MERS hospital outbreak in Al-Ahsa, which occurred between 1 st April and 23 rd May 2013, as well as clusters in Buraidah and a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin, the KSA. Genomic sequencing identified that approximately 12 MERS-CoV detections from a community outbreak in Hafr Al-Batin between June and August 2013 may have been triggered by an index case becoming infected through DC contact [175] . Sequencing MERS-CoV genomes from the 2013 Al-Ahsa hospital outbreak indicated that multiple viral variants contributed to the cases but that most were similar enough to each other to be consistent with human-tohuman transmission. Molecular epidemiology has revealed otherwise hidden links in transmission chains encompassing a period of up to five months [179] . However, most outbreaks have not continued for longer than two to three months and so opportunities for the virus to adapt further to humans through co-infection and sustained serial passage have been rare [169] . In Riyadh-2014, genetic evidence supported the likelihood of multiple external introductions of virus, implicating a range of healthcare facilities in an event that otherwise looked contiguous [23, 168, 179] . Riyadh is a nexus for camel and human travel and has had more MERS cases than any other region of the KSA to date but also harbours a wide range of MERS-CoV variants [128, 167, 179] . However the South Korean outbreak originated from a single infected person, resulting in three to four generations of cases [180, 181] . Studies of this apparently recombinant viral variant did not find an increased evolutionary rate and no sign of virus adaptation thus the outbreak seems to have been driven by circumstance rather than circumstance together with mutation [181] . For many MERS cases detected outside the Arabian Peninsula, extensive contact tracing has been performed and the results described in detail. Contact tracing is essential to contain the emergence and transmission of a new virus and today it is supported by molecular epidemiology. Although it is an expensive and time consuming process, contact tracing can identify potential new infections and through active or passive monitoring, react more rapidly if disease does develop. Results of contact tracing to date have found that onward transmission among humans is an infrequent event. For example, there were 83 contacts, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, of a case treated in Germany who travelled from the UAE but no sign of virus or antibody were found in any of them [73] . The very first MERS case had made contact with 56 HCWs and 48 others, but none developed any indication of infection [162] . In a study of 123 contacts of a case treated in France, only seven matched the definition for a possible case and were tested; one who had shared a 20 m 2 hospital room while in a bed 1.5 m away from the index case for a prolonged period was positive [26] . None of the contacts of the first two MERS cases imported into the USA in 2014 contained any MERS-CoV footprint [182] and none of the 131 contacts of two travellers returning to the Netherlands developed MERS-CoV antibodies or tested RNA positive [25, 183] . Analyses of public data reveal many likely instances of nosocomial acquisition of infection in the Arabian Peninsula and these data may be accompanied by some details noting contact with a known case or facility. One example identified the likely role of a patient with a subclinical infection, present in a hospital during their admission for other reasons, as the likeliest index case triggering a family cluster [93] . Contact tracing was a significant factor in the termination of a 2015 outbreak involving multiple South Korean hospitals [184] . Such studies demonstrate the necessity of finding and understanding a role for mild and asymptomatic cases, together with restricting close contact or prolonged exposure of infected people to others, especially older family members and friends with underlying disease (Fig. 4c) . The hospital-associated outbreak in Jeddah in 2014 was the largest and most rapid accumulation of MERS-CoV detections to date. The greatest number of MERS-CoV detections of any month on record occurred in Jeddah in April. The outbreak was mostly (>60 % of cases) associated with human-to-human spread within hospital environments and resulted from a lack of, or breakdown in, infection prevention and control [37, 185, 186] . A rise in fatalities followed the rapid increase in case numbers. In 2015 two large outbreaks occurred. South Korea was the site of the first large scale outbreak outside the Arabian Peninsula and produced the first cases in both South Korea and China, occurring between May and July 2015. This was closely followed by a distinct outbreak in Ar Riyad province in the KSA which appeared to come under control in early November. After staying in Bahrain for two weeks, a 68 year old male (68 M) travelled home to South Korea via Qatar, arriving free of symptoms on the 4 th May 2015 [187] . He developed fever, myalgia and a cough nearly a week later (11 th ). He visited a clinic as an outpatient between the 12 th and 15 th of May and was admitted to Hospital A on the 15 th [188] . He was discharged from Hospital A on the 17 th then visited and was admitted to the emergency department of Hospital B on the 18 th . During this second stay, a sputum sample was taken and tested positive for MERS-CoV on the 20 th [187, 188] , triggering transfer to the designated isolation treatment facility. Over a period of 10 days, the index case was seen at three different hospitals, demonstrating a key feature of "hospital shopping" that shaped the South Korean outbreak. Approximately 34 people were infected during this time [187] . In total 186 cases were generated in this outbreak, all linked through a single transmission chain to 68 M; 37 cases died [189] . In South Korea, the national health insurance system provides for relatively low cost medical care, defraying some costs by making family members responsible for a portion of the ministration of the sick, resulting in them sometimes staying for long periods in the rooms that often have more than four beds in them [24] . Other factors thought to have enabled this outbreak included unfamiliarity of local clinicians with MERS, ease with which the public can visit and be treated by tertiary hospitals, the custom of visiting sick friends and relatives in hospitals, the hierarchical nature of Korean society, crowded emergency rooms, poor IPC measures, a lack of negative pressure isolation rooms and poor inter-hospital communication of patient disease histories [24, [190] [191] [192] . All of the reported transmission occurred across three or four generations and apart from one unknown source, were all hospital-acquired [24, 120, 181, [193] [194] [195] . Few clinical details about these cases have been reported to date and detail on transmission and contact tracing is minimal. The hospitals involved were initially not identified, governmental guidance and actions produced confusing messages and there was very limited communication at all early on which resulted in unnecessary concern, distrust and a distinct economic impact [191, [196] [197] [198] . Early in the outbreak, a infected traveller, the son of an identified case in South Korea, passed through Hong Kong on his way to China where he was located, isolated and cared for in China [91, 199, 200] . No contacts became ill. The outbreak was brought under control in late July/ early August [201] after improved IPC measures were employed, strong contact tracing monitoring and quarantine, expanded laboratory testing, hospitals were better secured, specialized personnel were dispatched to manage cases and international cooperation increased [202, 203] . A review of public data showed that, as for MERS in the KSA, older age and the presence of underlying disease were significantly associated with a fatal outcome in South Korea. [40] Even though R 0 is <1, super-spreading events facilitated by circumstances created in healthcare settings and characterized by cluster sizes over 150, such as this one, are not unexpected from MERS-CoV infection [204] . The dynamic of an outbreak depends on the R 0 and an individual's viral shedding patterns, contact type and frequency, hospital procedures and population structure and density [204] . In the region of Ar Riyad, including the capital city of Riyadh, a hospital based cluster began, within a single hospital, from late June 2015 [205] . By mid-September there had been approximately170 cases reported but the outbreak appeared to been brought under control in November. It became apparent early on that MERS-CoV spread relatively ineffectively from human-to-human. Despite ongoing and possibly seasonal introduction of virus to the human population via infected DCs and perhaps other animals yet to be identified, the vast majority of MERS-CoV transmission has occurred from infected to uninfected humans in close and prolonged contact through circumstances created by poor infection control in health care settings. This opportunistic virus has had its greatest impact on those with underlying diseases and such vulnerable people, sometimes suffering multiple comorbidities, have been most often associated with hospitals, creating a perfect storm of exposure, transmission and mortality. It remains unclear if this group are uniquely affected by MERS-CoV or if other respiratory virus infections, including those from HCoVs, produce a similarly serious impact. In South Korea, a single imported case created an outbreak of 185 cases and 36 deaths that had a disproportionate impact on economic performance, community behaviour and trust in government and the health care system. Household human-to human transmission occurs but is also limited. Educational programs will be essential tools for combatting the spread of MERS-CoV both within urban and regional communities and for the health care setting. Vigilance remains important for containment since MERS-CoV is a virus with a genetic makeup that has been observed for only three years and is not stable. Among all humans reported to be infected, nearly 40 % have died. Continued laboratory testing, sequencing, analysis, timely data sharing and clear communication are essential for such vigilance to be effective. Global alignment of case definitions would further aid accurate calculation of a case fatality ratio by including subclinical case numbers. Whole genome sequencing has been used extensively to study MERS-CoV travel and variation and although it remains a tool for experts, it appears to be the best tool for the job. MERS and SARS have some clinical similarities but they also diverge significantly [206] . Defining characteristics include the higher PFC among MERS cases (above 50 % in 2013 and currently at 30-40 %; well above the 9 % of SARS) and the higher association between fatal MERS and older males with underlying comorbidities. For the viruses, MERS-CoV has a broader tropism, grows more rapidly in vitro, more rapidly induces cytopathogenic change, triggers distinct transcriptional responses, makes use of a different receptor, induces a more proinflammatory state and has a delayed innate antiviral response compared to SARS-CoV. There appears to be a 2-3 % prevalence of MERS-CoV in the KSA with a 5 % chance of secondary transmission within the household. There is an increased risk of infection through certain occupations at certain times and a much greater chance for spread to other humans during circumstances created by humans, which drives more effective transmission than any R 0 would predict on face value. Nonetheless, despite multiple mass gatherings that have afforded the virus many millions of opportunities to spread, there have remarkably been no reported outbreaks of MERS or MERS-CoV during or immediately after these events. There is no evidence that MERS-CoV is a virus of pandemic concern. Nonetheless, hospital settings continue to describe MERS cases and outbreaks in the Arabian Peninsula. As long as we facilitate the spread of MERS-CoV among our most vulnerable populations, the world must remain on alert for cases which may be exported more frequently when a host country with infected camel reservoirs is experiencing human clusters or outbreaks. The MERS-CoV appears to be an enzootic virus infecting the DC URT with evidence of recent genetic recombination. It may once have had its origins among bats, but evidence is lacking and the relevance of that to today's ongoing epidemic is academic. Thanks to quick action, the sensitive and rapid molecular diagnostic tools required to achieve rapid and sensitive detection goal have been in place and made widely available since the virus was reported in 2012. RT-PCR testing of LRT samples remains the gold standard for MERS-CoV confirmation. Serological tools continue to emerge but they are in need of further validation using samples from mild and asymptomatic infections and a densely sampled cohort study to follow contacts of new cases may address this need. Similarly, the important question of whether those who do shed MERS-CoV RNA for extended periods are infectious while appearing well, continues to go unanswered. It is even unclear just how many 'asymptomatic' infections have been described and reported correctly which in turn raises questions about the reliability of other clinical data collection to date. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the course of the past three years, understanding what is happening in, and the interplay between, camel, environment and human is still in its infancy. Additional file 1: Figure S1 . The

What was the first known MERS human-to-human transmission event was one characterized by?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What may studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points provide?

Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7079962/ SHA: f7cfc37ea164f16393d7f4f3f2b32214dea1ded4 Authors: Jamieson, Amanda M Date: 2016-07-01 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2016-0060 License: cc-by Abstract: Recently, two coronaviruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, have emerged to cause unusually severe respiratory disease in humans. Currently, there is a lack of effective antiviral treatment options or vaccine available. Given the severity of these outbreaks, and the possibility of additional zoonotic coronaviruses emerging in the near future, the exploration of different treatment strategies is necessary. Disease resilience is the ability of a given host to tolerate an infection, and to return to a state of health. This review focuses on exploring various host resilience mechanisms that could be exploited for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and other respiratory viruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Text: The 21st century was heralded with the emergence of two novel coronaviruses (CoV) that have unusually high pathogenicity and mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-Cov) was first identified in 2003 [6] [7] [8] [9] . While there was initially great concern about SARS-CoV, once no new cases emerged, funding and research decreased. However, a decade later Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), also known as HCoV-EMC, emerged initially in Saudi Arabia [3, 10] . SARS-CoV infected about 8000 people, and resulted in the deaths of approximately 10% of those infected [11] . While MERS-CoV is not as widespread as SARS-CoV, it appears to have an even higher mortality rate, with 35-50% of diagnosed infections resulting in death [3, [12] [13] . These deadly betacoronavirus viruses existed in animal reservoirs [4] [5] 9, [14] [15] . Recently, other CoVs have been detected in animal populations raising the possibility that we will see a repeat of these types of outbreaks in the near future [11, [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] . Both these zoonotic viruses cause a much more severe disease than what is typically seen for CoVs, making them a global health concern. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV result in severe lung pathology. Many infected patients have acute lung injury (ALI), a condition that is diagnosed based on the presence of pulmonary edema and respiratory failure without a cardiac cause. In some patients there is a progression to the more severe form of ALI, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) [21] [22] [23] . In order to survive a given infection, a successful host must not only be able to clear the pathogen, but tolerate damage caused by the pathogen itself and also by the host's immune response [24] [25] [26] . We refer to resilience as the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of pathogens and the immune response to pathogens. A resilient host is able to return to a state of health after responding to an infection [24, [27] [28] . Most currently available treatment options for infectious diseases are antimicrobials, For reprint orders, please contact: [email protected] REviEW Jamieson future science group and thus target the pathogen itself. Given the damage that pathogens can cause this focus on rapid pathogen clearance is understandable. However, an equally important medical intervention is to increase the ability of the host to tolerate the direct and indirect effects of the pathogen, and this is an area that is just beginning to be explored [29] . Damage to the lung epithelium by respiratory pathogens is a common cause of decreased resilience [30] [31] [32] . This review explores some of the probable host resilience pathways to viral infections, with a particular focus on the emerging coronaviruses. We will also examine factors that make some patients disease tolerant and other patients less tolerant to the viral infection. These factors can serve as a guide to new potential therapies for improved patient care. Both SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are typified by a rapid progression to ARDS, however, there are some distinct differences in the infectivity and pathogenicity. The two viruses have different receptors leading to different cellular tropism, and SARS-CoV is more ubiquitous in the cell type and species it can infect. SARS-CoV uses the ACE2 receptor to gain entry to cells, while MERS-CoV uses the ectopeptidase DPP4 [33] [34] [35] [36] . Unlike SARS-CoV infection, which causes primarily a severe respiratory syndrome, MERS-CoV infection can also lead to kidney failure [37, 38] . SARS-CoV also spreads more rapidly between hosts, while MERS-CoV has been more easily contained, but it is unclear if this is due to the affected patient populations and regions [3] [4] 39 ]. Since MERS-CoV is a very recently discovered virus, [40, 41] more research has been done on SARS-CoV. However, given the similarities it is hoped that some of these findings can also be applied to MERS-CoV, and other potential emerging zoonotic coronaviruses. Both viral infections elicit a very strong inflammatory response, and are also able to circumvent the immune response. There appears to be several ways that these viruses evade and otherwise redirect the immune response [1, [42] [43] [44] [45] . The pathways that lead to the induction of the antiviral type I interferon (IFN) response are common targets of many viruses, and coronaviruses are no exception. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are contained in double membrane vesicles (DMVs), that prevents sensing of its genome [1, 46] . As with most coronaviruses several viral proteins suppress the type I IFN response, and other aspects of innate antiviral immunity [47] . These alterations of the type I IFN response appear to play a role in immunopathology in more than one way. In patients with high initial viral titers there is a poor prognosis [39, 48] . This indicates that reduction of the antiviral response may lead to direct viral-induced pathology. There is also evidence that the delayed type I IFN response can lead to misregulation of the immune response that can cause immunopathology. In a mouse model of SARS-CoV infection, the type I IFN response is delayed [49] . The delay of this potent antiviral response leads to decreased viral clearance, at the same time there is an increase in inflammatory cells of the immune system that cause excessive immunopathology [49] . In this case, the delayed antiviral response not only causes immunopathology, it also fails to properly control the viral replication. While more research is needed, it appears that MERS has a similar effect on the innate immune response [5, 50] . The current treatment and prevention options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV are limited. So far there are no licensed vaccines for SAR-CoV or MERS-CoV, although several strategies have been tried in animal models [51, 52] . There are also no antiviral strategies that are clearly effective in controlled trials. During outbreaks several antiviral strategies were empirically tried, but these uncontrolled studies gave mixed results [5, 39] . The main antivirals used were ribavirin, lopinavir and ritonavir [38, 53] . These were often used in combination with IFN therapy [54] . However, retrospective analysis of these data has not led to clear conclusions of the efficacy of these treatment options. Research in this area is still ongoing and it is hoped that we will soon have effective strategies to treat novel CoV [3,36,38,40, [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] . The lack of effective antivirals makes it necessary to examine other potential treatments for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Even if there were effective strategies to decrease viral burden, for these viruses, the potential for new emerging zoonotic CoVs presents additional complications. Vaccines cannot be produced in time to stop the spread of an emerging virus. In addition, as was demonstrated during SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV outbreaks, there is always a challenge during a crisis situation to know which Host resilience to emerging coronaviruses REviEW future science group www.futuremedicine.com antiviral will work on a given virus. One method of addressing this is to develop broad-spectrum antivirals that target conserved features of a given class of virus [65] . However, given the fast mutation rates of viruses there are several challenges to this strategy. Another method is to increase the ability of a given patient to tolerate the disease, i.e., target host resilience mechanisms. So far this has largely been in the form of supportive care, which relies on mechanical ventilation and oxygenation [29, 39, 66] . Since SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV were discovered relatively recently there is a lack of both patient and experimental data. However, many other viruses cause ALI and ARDS, including influenza A virus (IAV). By looking at data from other high pathology viruses we can extrapolate various pathways that could be targeted during infection with these emerging CoVs. This can add to our understanding of disease resilience mechanisms that we have learned from direct studies of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Increased understanding of host resilience mechanisms can lead to future host-based therapies that could increase patient survival [29] . One common theme that emerges in many respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV is that much of the pathology is due to an excessive inflammatory response. A study from Josset et al. examines the cell host response to both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and discovered that MERS-CoV dysregulates the host transcriptome to a much greater extent than SARS-CoV [67] . It demonstrates that glucocorticoids may be a potential way of altering the changes in the host transcriptome at late time points after infection. If host gene responses are maintained this may increase disease resilience. Given the severe disease that manifested during the SARS-CoV outbreak, many different treatment options were empirically tried on human patients. One immunomodulatory treatment that was tried during the SARS-CoV outbreak was systemic corticosteroids. This was tried with and without the use of type I IFNs and other therapies that could directly target the virus [68] . Retrospective analysis revealed that, when given at the correct time and to the appropriate patients, corticosteroid use could decrease mortality and also length of hospital stays [68] . In addition, there is some evidence that simultaneous treatment with IFNs could increase the potential benefits [69] . Although these treatments are not without complications, and there has been a lack of a randomized controlled trial [5, 39] . Corticosteroids are broadly immunosuppressive and have many physiological effects [5, 39] . Several recent studies have suggested that other compounds could be useful in increasing host resilience to viral lung infections. A recent paper demonstrates that topoisomerase I can protect against inflammation-induced death from a variety of viral infections including IAV [70] . Blockade of C5a complement signaling has also been suggested as a possible option in decreasing inflammation during IAV infection [71] . Other immunomodulators include celecoxib, mesalazine and eritoran [72, 73] . Another class of drugs that have been suggested are statins. They act to stabilize the activation of aspects of the innate immune response and prevent excessive inflammation [74] . However, decreasing immunopathology by immunomodulation is problematic because it can lead to increased pathogen burden, and thus increase virus-induced pathology [75, 76] . Another potential treatment option is increasing tissue repair pathways to increase host resilience to disease. This has been shown by bioinformatics [77] , as well as in several animal models [30-31,78-79]. These therapies have been shown in cell culture model systems or animal models to be effective, but have not been demonstrated in human patients. The correct timing of the treatments is essential. Early intervention has been shown to be the most effective in some cases, but other therapies work better when given slightly later during the course of the infection. As the onset of symptoms varies slightly from patient to patient the need for precise timing will be a challenge. Examination of potential treatment options for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV should include consideration of host resilience [29] . In addition to the viral effects, and the pathology caused by the immune response, there are various comorbidities associated with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV that lead to adverse outcomes. Interestingly, these additional risk factors that lead to a more severe disease are different between the two viruses. It is unclear if these differences are due to distinct populations affected by the viruses, because of properties of the virus themselves, or both. Understanding these factors could be a key to increasing host resilience to the infections. MERS-CoV patients had increased morbidity and mortality if they were obese, immunocompromised, diabetic or had cardiac disease [4, 12] . REviEW Jamieson future science group Risk factors for SARS-CoV patients included an older age and male [39] . Immune factors that increased mortality for SARS-CoV were a higher neutrophil count and low T-cell counts [5, 39, 77] . One factor that increased disease for patients infected with SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV was infection with other viruses or bacteria [5, 39] . This is similar to what is seen with many other respiratory infections. A recent study looking at malaria infections in animal models and human patients demonstrated that resilient hosts can be predicted [28] . Clinical studies have started to correlate specific biomarkers with disease outcomes in ARDS patients [80] . By understanding risk factors for disease severity we can perhaps predict if a host may be nonresilient and tailor the treatment options appropriately. A clear advantage of targeting host resilience pathways is that these therapies can be used to treat a variety of different infections. In addition, there is no need to develop a vaccine or understand the antiviral susceptibility of a new virus. Toward this end, understanding why some patients or patient populations have increased susceptibility is of paramount importance. In addition, a need for good model systems to study responses to these new emerging coronaviruses is essential. Research into both these subjects will lead us toward improved treatment of emerging viruses that cause ALI, such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The author has no relevant affiliations or financial involvement with any organization or entity with a financial interest in or financial conflict with the subject matter or materials discussed in the manuscript. This includes employment, consultancies, honoraria, stock ownership or options, expert testimony, grants or patents received or pending, or royalties. No writing assistance was utilized in the production of this manuscript. • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus are zoonotic coronaviruses that cause acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome. • Antivirals have limited effects on the course of the infection with these coronaviruses. • There is currently no vaccine for either severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. • Host resilience is the ability of a host to tolerate the effects of an infection and return to a state of health. • Several pathways, including control of inflammation, metabolism and tissue repair may be targeted to increase host resilience. • The future challenge is to target host resilience pathways in such a way that there are limited effects on pathogen clearance pathways. Future studies should determine the safety of these types of treatments for human patients. Papers of special note have been highlighted as:

How do SARS-CoV viral proteins interact with the immune response?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What do these factors do?

Gemcitabine and Nucleos(t)ide Synthesis Inhibitors Are Broad-Spectrum Antiviral Drugs that Activate Innate Immunity https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5923505/ SHA: f1e1e2511e051195c8327a56d5c311a2dd4ab6b3 Authors: Shin, Hye Jin; Kim, Chonsaeng; Cho, Sungchan Date: 2018-04-20 DOI: 10.3390/v10040211 License: cc-by Abstract: Nucleoside analogs have been frequently identified as antiviral agents. In recent years, gemcitabine, a cytidine analog in clinical use for the treatment of many solid tumors, was also shown to have antiviral activity against a broad range of viruses. Nucleoside analogs generally interfere with cellular nucleos(t)ide synthesis pathways, resulting in the depletion or imbalance of (d)NTP pools. Intriguingly, a few recent reports have shown that some nucleoside analogs, including gemcitabine, activated innate immunity, inducing the expression of interferon-stimulated genes, through nucleos(t)ide synthesis inhibition. The precise crosstalk between these two independent processes remains to be determined. Nonetheless, we summarize the current knowledge of nucleos(t)ide synthesis inhibition-related innate immunity and propose it as a newly emerging antiviral mechanism of nucleoside analogs. Text: Nucleoside analogs have been historically used for anti-cancer chemotherapy because they inhibit cellular DNA/RNA polymerases [1] . More recently, nucleoside analogs have expanded their therapeutic applications and are being used to develop antiviral drugs against a wide range of serious and life-threatening viruses. Some nucleoside analog drugs targeting specific viral polymerases (acyclovir for herpesviruses, zidovudine for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and sofosbuvir for hepatitis C virus (HCV)) have been successful in clinical trials [2] [3] [4] [5] and are currently in use for the treatment of virus-infected patients. Another class of nucleoside analog drugs such as ribavirin, more broadly-acting on various viruses, has been used in conjunction with IFN-α [6] . Importantly, extensive studies on the antiviral action of ribavirin have established the underlying molecular framework of nucleoside analogs. The primary mechanism to explain the antiviral effect of nucleoside analogs is based on their direct action on viral polymerization. Nucleoside analogs are transported into the cells and phosphorylated by the consecutive action of viral or cellular kinases, eventually generating nucleotide triphosphates. Mature nucleotide analogs, which are similar to physiological nucleotides, can directly incorporate into the growing viral genome during polymerization, resulting in the termination of chain reaction or the accumulation of mutations ( Figure 1 ). Alternatively, nucleotide analogs can bind to the nucleotide-binding region on viral polymerases and block the entry of incoming natural nucleotides. The other mechanism is based on the modulation of cellular nucleos(t)ide synthesis. There have been accumulating reports that nucleoside analogs act as antiviral agents by interfering with host nucleos(t)ide synthesis pathways [7] [8] [9] [10] . By targeting metabolic enzymes(s), nucleoside analogs block the natural flow of nucleos(t)ide synthesis and consequently cause the depletion or imbalance of (d)NTP pools. As viral replication is highly dependent on the availability of host nucleotides, a nucleotide-defective condition decreases the efficiency of viral replication. A more recently proposed mechanism has been based on the observations that a few nucleoside analogs activate innate immunity, especially involving the upregulation of interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs). Importantly, this phenomenon is usually mediated by the inhibition of nucleotide synthesis, suggesting a potential crosstalk between nucleotide biosynthesis and innate immunity. However, the precise mechanism of this crosstalk remains to be elucidated. There is now an increasing number of nucleoside analogs with antiviral activity toward a wide range of viruses. They have been well-summarized in a previous report [1] . In the present review, we focus more on gemcitabine as a nucleoside analog, which is clinically relevant and whose broad-spectrum antiviral activity has been recently reported by many groups including our group. More importantly, we summarize inhibitors of the purine/pyrimidine biosynthesis pathways that induce innate immunity and propose possible mechanisms of action for these inhibitors. can directly incorporate into the growing viral genome during polymerization, resulting in the termination of chain reaction or the accumulation of mutations ( Figure 1 ). Alternatively, nucleotide analogs can bind to the nucleotide-binding region on viral polymerases and block the entry of incoming natural nucleotides. The other mechanism is based on the modulation of cellular nucleos(t)ide synthesis. There have been accumulating reports that nucleoside analogs act as antiviral agents by interfering with host nucleos(t)ide synthesis pathways [7] [8] [9] [10] . By targeting metabolic enzymes(s), nucleoside analogs block the natural flow of nucleos(t)ide synthesis and consequently cause the depletion or imbalance of (d)NTP pools. As viral replication is highly dependent on the availability of host nucleotides, a nucleotide-defective condition decreases the efficiency of viral replication. A more recently proposed mechanism has been based on the observations that a few nucleoside analogs activate innate immunity, especially involving the upregulation of interferonstimulated genes (ISGs). Importantly, this phenomenon is usually mediated by the inhibition of nucleotide synthesis, suggesting a potential crosstalk between nucleotide biosynthesis and innate immunity. However, the precise mechanism of this crosstalk remains to be elucidated. There is now an increasing number of nucleoside analogs with antiviral activity toward a wide range of viruses. They have been well-summarized in a previous report [1] . In the present review, we focus more on gemcitabine as a nucleoside analog, which is clinically relevant and whose broadspectrum antiviral activity has been recently reported by many groups including our group. More importantly, we summarize inhibitors of the purine/pyrimidine biosynthesis pathways that induce innate immunity and propose possible mechanisms of action for these inhibitors. Figure 1 . The mechanism of antiviral effect of nucleos(t)ide analogs. Nucleos(t)ide synthesis inhibition-related innate immunity, a newly emerging antiviral mechanism of nucleoside analogs, was highlighted by yellow boxes. Gemcitabine is a cytidine analog that has been clinically used for the treatment of various cancers [11, 12] . However, in recent years, the antiviral activity of gemcitabine has also been reported against a broad range of RNA viruses, including Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Zika virus (ZIKV), HCV, poliovirus (PV), influenza A virus (IAV), HIV, and enteroviruses (EV) [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] . The antiviral activities of gemcitabine against the abovementioned viruses are summarized in Table 1 . MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV belong to the family of Coronaviridae and are causative agents of severe viral respiratory illness in humans. To efficiently select appropriate antiviral drug Figure 1 . The mechanism of antiviral effect of nucleos(t)ide analogs. Nucleos(t)ide synthesis inhibition-related innate immunity, a newly emerging antiviral mechanism of nucleoside analogs, was highlighted by yellow boxes. Gemcitabine is a cytidine analog that has been clinically used for the treatment of various cancers [11, 12] . However, in recent years, the antiviral activity of gemcitabine has also been reported against a broad range of RNA viruses, including Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), Zika virus (ZIKV), HCV, poliovirus (PV), influenza A virus (IAV), HIV, and enteroviruses (EV) [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] . The antiviral activities of gemcitabine against the abovementioned viruses are summarized in Table 1 . MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV belong to the family of Coronaviridae and are causative agents of severe viral respiratory illness in humans. To efficiently select appropriate antiviral drug candidates, Dyall et al. screened 290 FDA-approved drugs in virus-infected Vero E6 cells and identified gemcitabine as one of drugs with antiviral activity against both MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV (EC 50 of 1.2 µM and 4.9 µM, respectively) [13] . More recently, gemcitabine was shown to effectively suppress ZIKV infection and replication in human retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) cells, particularly at non-cytotoxic concentrations (EC 50 of 0.01 µM vs. CC 50 of > 10 µM) [14] . ZIKV, a member of the Flaviviridae family, can infect pregnant women and cause congenital abnormalities such as microcephaly in infants, which has attracted increasing public attention as well as extensive research and development into possible treatments. Effective antiviral activities of gemcitabine were also found for the replication of HCV in Huh-7 cells and the infection of HIV in U373-MAGI-CXCR4 CEM cells, with estimated EC 50 s of 12 nM and 16.3 nM, respectively [17, 19] , which were lower concentrations than those used in cancer therapy [20] . In the case of HIV, the combination of gemcitabine with decitabine, another nucleoside analog in clinical use for cancer therapy, synergistically reduced HIV infectivity by increasing the viral mutation frequency [21] . In a follow up study, Clouser et al. further reported the antiviral effect of gemcitabine against HIV-related retrovirus, murine leukemia virus (MuLV), in vitro (EC 50 of 1.6 nM) and even in murine AIDS model [17] . A significant antiviral effect of gemcitabine on IAVs was also reported for RPE cells by Denisova et al. (EC 50 of 0.068 µM) [16] . They also tested whether gemcitabine had an antiviral effect on several other viruses of different families and found its strong inhibitory effect on Sindbis virus and herpes simplex virus-1 (HSV-1) (>2 log reduction in virus titer) but relatively weak effects on Semliki forest virus and human echovirus 6, and minimal effects on Bunyamwera virus, measles virus (MeV), and vaccinia virus [16] . The antiviral effect of gemcitabine on EVs, initially performed on Coxsackievirus B3 (CVB3), was found from screening FDA-approved drugs in CVB3 replicon-harboring Vero cells by our group (EC 50 of 0.4 µM) [18] . Its broad-spectrum antiviral activity on EVs was further identified by observing a similar inhibitory effect on enterovirus 71 (EV71) and human rhinoviruses (HRVs) (EC 50 s of 1 and 1-5 µM, respectively). In the case of HRV, the antiviral effect of gemcitabine was further confirmed in a virus-infected mouse model [22] . In this study, intranasal administration of gemcitabine significantly lowered the pulmonary viral load and inflammation by decreasing proinflammatory cytokines, including TNF-α and IL-1β, and the number of lung infiltrating lymphocytes. More recently, Zhang et al. also identified gemcitabine as the best anti-PV inhibitor from a screen of FDA-approved drugs in PV replicon-harboring HeLa cells (EC 50 of 0.3 µM) [15] . As previously mentioned, accumulating evidence has definitively demonstrated that gemcitabine is an effective broad-spectrum inhibitor of RNA viruses and has a therapeutic potential for the treatment of various virus-associated diseases. Moreover, it is possible that gemcitabine is effective for other untested RNA viruses. Because gemcitabine is a deoxycytidine analog that interferes with DNA as well as RNA synthesis, DNA viruses may not be the exception. Consistent with this possibility, there has been a report that the infection of HSV-1, which is a representative DNA virus classified into the Herpesviridae family, was strongly affected by gemcitabine [16] . Most of the abovementioned viruses have, at best, limited prophylactic or therapeutic drugs as possible treatments. This is especially true for newly emerging or re-emerged viruses involving serious illnesses, such as MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and ZIKV, which are major threats to public health and which urgently need an effective treatment during their early stages of infection. In this regard, repurposing of gemcitabine for the treatment of patients infected with these deadly viruses is a realistic approach. Importantly, it is noteworthy that ZIKV was the most strongly affected by gemcitabine, with a low nanomolar EC 50 , which was lower than that used in cancer therapy [14, 20] . Even for other viruses with a relatively high EC 50 , there is an option to treat patients with a combination of gemcitabine with other antiviral agents. In this manner, an effective antiviral treatment may be achieved by the synergistic action of two antivirals with much lower doses for each drug, which minimizes deleterious side effects when used clinically. As an example, the synergistic antiviral effect of gemcitabine in combination with ribavirin, an antiviral drug currently being used against a few RNA viruses, was reported against EVs such as CVB3 and EV71 [18] . As previously mentioned, the combination of gemcitabine with decitabine synergistically suppressed HIV infectivity both in vitro and in vivo [17, 21] . However, the actual use of gemcitabine in virus-infected patients necessitates prior in vivo animal studies and clinical trials. Even though most antiviral data have originated from in vitro studies, two recent studies have reported the antiviral effects of gemcitabine in murine models [17, 22] . More extensive analyses of gemcitabine in animal models in the near future will accelerate its therapeutic applications in clinical trials. Most studies regarding the antiviral activity of gemcitabine lack experimental evidence of the mode of action. However, our group has recently reported that gemcitabine had an anti-EV effect by targeting the salvage pathway of pyrimidine biosynthesis [23] . Moreover, gemcitabine strongly induced the expression of several ISGs including CXCL10, IRF7, IRF9, IFIT1, and DDX58, which were the major effectors in the innate immunity that defended the host against the virus infection. These results were consistent with a previous report that gemcitabine stimulated the production of IFN-β and IFN-γ in IAV-infected RPE cells [16] . Importantly, the activation of ISGs was well-correlated with the inhibition of pyrimidine biosynthesis, suggesting a link between pyrimidine biosynthesis and innate immunity. Similar phenomena in terms of ISG activation have been previously reported with a few compounds out of several purine or pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors that had antiviral activity, as summarized in Table 2 [6, 10, [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] . Regarding purine biosynthesis inhibitors, ribavirin and mycophenolic acid (MPA) are inhibitors of inosine-5 -monophosphate (IMP) dehydrogenase (IMPDH), which is a key enzyme of the purine biosynthesis pathway. These inhibitors have been successfully used as clinical antiviral or immunosuppressant agents for decades. Both have antiviral activities against viruses such as HCV, hepatitis E virus (HEV), MERS-CoV, dengue virus, yellow fever, hepatitis B virus, West Nile virus (WNV), Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and IAV [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] , majorly through the inhibition of the purine biosynthesis pathway, with the antiviral activity against HCV and HEV shown to involve the stimulation of ISGs [10, 30] . For the antiviral activity of ribavirin against HCV, ribavirin specifically induced the expression of IRF7, IRF9, and ISG15 mRNAs, which are known to be important for anti-HCV immune responses [6] . ISG activation occurred through an undefined mechanism that was different from the classical IFN signaling, intracellular dsRNA sensing pathway, Toll-like receptor and nuclear factor B pathways. More importantly, ribavirin-induced ISG activation and antiviral activity were suppressed using supplemented guanosine, a natural analog of ribavirin, suggesting IMPDH inhibition-mediated ISG activation as an alternative innate immunity pathway. Like ribavirin, MPA remarkably induced the expression of several ISGs, including IRF1, IRF9, ISG15, IFI6, IRF7, CXCL10, IFIT2, and IFITM3 mRNAs in naïve or HEV-infected Huh-7 cells, and the induction of ISGs was at least partially abrogated by the use of supplemented guanosine [10] . Mechanistically, the induction of ISGs by MPA was independent of the classical JAK/STAT system, which is similar to that observed with ribavirin [30] . Similar results were obtained with several IMPDH1 or IMPDH2 inhibitors, with various affinities, that were custom-designed and synthesized [10] . As shown in Table 2 , most pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors target dihydroorotate dehydrogenase (DHODH), an essential enzyme in de novo pyrimidine synthesis. Lucas-Hourani et al. identified DD264 as an interferon-sensitive response element (ISRE)-stimulating compound from high-throughput screening, and further analyses suggested that it was a DHODH inhibitor with a strong antiviral activity against various viruses including MeV, CHIKV, and WNV [37] . DD264 enhanced the expression of several ISGs, which were almost completely suppressed by the addition of supplemented uridine, indicating DHODH inhibition-mediated ISG activation. Moreover, the antiviral activity of and ISG activation by DD264 required the interferon regulatory factor 1 (IRF1) transcription factor, a master regulator of antiviral gene expression [37] , which was consistent with the observation that the anti-HCV activity of MPA was partially mediated by IRF1 [30] . In this study, similar results were shown with brequinar, another well-known DHODH inhibitor. FA-613 is also an antiviral compound, which inhibits the pyrimidine biosynthesis pathway, probably via targeting DHODH and inducing the expression of ISGs such as IFNB1, CXCL10, ISG15, and CCL5 [38] . However, whether ISG activation is mediated by pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibition remains to be determined. The mechanism of nucleotide synthesis inhibitor-induced ISG activation is still presently unclear. Nevertheless, there has been accumulating evidence showing that nucleotide synthesis inhibitor-induced ISG activation is independent of the classical JAK/STAT-mediated IFN signal [6, 10, 23] . First, Wang et al. clearly showed that ISG activation and anti-HEV activity induced by MPA or brequinar was not mediated by JAK [10] . Second, IRF7 induction by ribavirin was not affected by knockdown of STAT1, while that of IFN-α was strongly affected under the same conditions [6] . Third, our recent study with gemcitabine further confirmed IFN signal-independent ISG activation by parallel studies comparing the effects of gemcitabine and IFN-α. In our study, the phosphorylation of STAT1 at Tyr701, which was dramatically triggered by IFN-α, did not occur when treated with gemcitabine [23] . Moreover, the upregulation of DDX58 mRNAs induced by gemcitabine was not affected by IRF9 knockdown, which was contrary to the result that IFN-α-induced upregulation of DDX58 mRNAs was significantly suppressed under the same conditions. Consistent with above observations, there have been some reports that ISGs was induced in the absence of JAK1 or STAT1 activation [43, 44] . Despite limited data, we speculate the scenario of ISG activation that is independent of JAK/STAT-mediated IFN signal. Purine or pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors could interfere with the metabolic pathway through targeting some key enzymes such as IMPDH and DHODH, leading to the depletion or imbalance of the (d)NTP pool. Inactivation of metabolic enzyme(s) itself or consequently altered nucleos(t)ide pools might trigger a signal, which is ultimately delivered to certain cis-acting elements on the promoter of a subset of ISGs, possibly through the relay of kinases and transcription factors. Based on the previously mentioned reports, this signal is less likely to be dependent on STAT1/2-IRF9 (IFN-stimulated gene factor 3; ISGF3), at least for gemcitabine, which is the major transcriptional complex in the IFN-induced JAK/STAT pathway. It should also be considered that Thomas et al. excluded the involvement of an intracellular double-stranded RNA sensing pathway, Toll-like receptor and nuclear factor κB pathways, as well as a classical IFN signal in the activation of ISGs induced by ribavirin [6] . Despite the consensus of ISG activation, each purine/pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitor seems to induce distinct sets of ISGs, at least with different patterns [10] . Targeting an enzyme in which pathways (purine or pyrimidine synthesis) or steps (early/late and de novo/salvage) produce different levels of intermediates and nucleos(t)ides will consequently result in diverse outcomes of ISG activations. There might be more than one signaling pathway involved. The synergistic antiviral activity of gemcitabine and ribavirin observed in our study might be explained by the possible existence of two separate signaling pathways that mediate each inhibition of nucleotide synthesis toward ISG activation. Systematic analyses of signaling kinases, IRFs, and STATs using siRNA knockdown and/or pharmacological inhibition and metabolic analyses of corresponding intermediates and nucleos(t)ides should therefore clarify the underlying molecular mechanisms of ISG activation by purine/pyrimidine biosynthesis inhibitors. As newly emerging or re-emerged viruses such as SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and ZIKV have become a major threat to public health, the need for broad-spectrum antiviral drug has increased. In this regard, nucleoside analogs that directly target viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and present a high barrier to the development of resistant viruses have been considered advantageous. Moreover, recent discovery of a new antiviral mode of nucleoside analogs acting through innate immunity strengthens the molecular basis for their therapeutic application as broad-spectrum antiviral drugs. Nucleoside analogs probably induce different subsets of ISGs, at least with a different pattern, leading to various combinations of ISGs and resulting antiviral outcomes. Moreover, according to Schoggins et al., different viruses are affected by distinct subsets of ISGs and some ISGs such as IRF1, MB21D1, HPSE, DDX58, MDA, and IFITM3 act broadly on various viruses [45] . Thus, more systematic analyses on the subsets of ISGs induced by antiviral nucleoside analogs are required for the identification of better antiviral drugs that can be used broadly or specifically. Given the clinical side effects of IFN treatment, nucleotide analogs that differ from IFN in the activation of subsets of ISGs need to be considered as alternatives. Nevertheless, nucleoside analogs interfering with the host nucleotide synthesis pathway suggest possible side effects in their clinical applications. Careful evaluation of clinical safety is required and their application for the urgent measure of patients infected with deadly viruses would be worth being primarily considered.

How does gemcitabine disrupt viral activity?

Chikungunya: A Potentially Emerging Epidemic? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2860491/ SHA: f7c3160bef4169d29e2a8bdd79dd6e9056d4774c Authors: Thiboutot, Michelle M.; Kannan, Senthil; Kawalekar, Omkar U.; Shedlock, Devon J.; Khan, Amir S.; Sarangan, Gopalsamy; Srikanth, Padma; Weiner, David B.; Muthumani, Karuppiah Date: 2010-04-27 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623 License: cc-by Abstract: Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne emerging pathogen that has a major health impact in humans and causes fever disease, headache, rash, nausea, vomiting, myalgia, and arthralgia. Indigenous to tropical Africa, recent large outbreaks have been reported in parts of South East Asia and several of its neighboring islands in 2005–07 and in Europe in 2007. Furthermore, positive cases have been confirmed in the United States in travelers returning from known outbreak areas. Currently, there is no vaccine or antiviral treatment. With the threat of an emerging global pandemic, the peculiar problems associated with the more immediate and seasonal epidemics warrant the development of an effective vaccine. In this review, we summarize the evidence supporting these concepts. Text: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a mosquito-borne pathogen listed by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) as a Category C Priority Pathogen that causes Chikungunya fever (CHIKF), has been spreading throughout Asia, Africa, and parts of Europe in recent times [1, 2, 3] . CHIKV is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) and is transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti, the infamous yellow fever propagator [4, 5] . CHIKV infection is marked by severe joint pain, contorting its victims into unusual postures [6] . The disease gets its name from the Kimakonde vernacular language of Tanzania and Mozambique, and the word chikungunya means ''that which contorts or bends up'' and translates in Swahili to ''the illness of the bended walker'' [7, 8, 9] . In Africa, CHIKV is maintained in a sylvatic cycle among forest-dwelling Aedes spp. mosquitoes, wild primates, squirrels, birds, and rodents ( Figure 1 ) [10] . In Asia, the disease is vectored by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus [11] . Transmission in Asia occurs in an urban cycle whereby the mosquito spreads the disease from an infected human to an uninfected human, following an epidemiological pattern similar to dengue fever [12] . The 2005-2006 epidemic of CHIKV in La Reunion islands in the Indian Ocean, spurred the discovery of a new vector species, Ae. albopictus [5] . Wrecking over one-third of the island's population, this epidemic peaked its devastation between January and February 2006, when over 46,000 cases came into light every week, including 284 deaths [5, 13] . Ae. albopictus is common in urban areas of the United States and is already flourishing in 36 states, raising grave concerns to the immunologically naive populace of the United States [14] . Accordingly, this review elaborately details the epidemiology and global expansion of CHIKV, describes its clinical features and pathogenesis and its symptoms and complications, and finally nominates a possible vaccine approach against CHIKV infection. CHIKV has been isolated into three genotypes based on phylogenetic studies. These genotypes, based on the gene sequences of an Envelope protein (E1), are Asian, East/Central/ South African, and West African [4, 11, 15] . Using phylogenetic models, Cherian et al. estimate that the Asian genotype of CHIKV emerged between 50 and 310 y ago, and the West and East African genotypes diverged between 100 and 840 y ago [15] . Since then, CHIKV has come a long way, with several mutations incorporated, and has continued to wreak epidemics in several regions. Recent activities of CHIKV include the Indian epidemic in 2005-2006, which was followed by a sudden explosion of cases in 2007. An estimated 1.3 million people across 13 states were reported to be infected in India [12, 16] , and CHIKV was also widespread in Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia [17] . In July-August of 2007, CHIKV was reported in Italy, probably brought in by travelers from CHIKV-prone regions of India, Africa, and Indian Ocean islands such as Mauritius, Madagascar, and Seychelles. Few of the Italian isolates were found to have evolved from the Kerala isolate, which was associated with a A226V shift in E1 gene that represents a successful evolutionary adaptation in the mosquito vector similar to the ones observed in Reunion Island [2, 18, 19] . In recent times, with an increase in global travel, the risk for spreading CHIKV to non-endemic regions has heightened [1] . Several travelers have brought CHIKV home with them after visiting areas with actively infected populations [12, 20] . Such cases have been documented in European countries, Australia, Asia, and the United States [8, 21] . The United States has already reported at least twelve cases of travel-associated CHIKV, while France has reported 850 cases, and the United Kingdom 93 [8, 14] . Beyond this, CHIKV-infected travelers have also been diagnosed in Australia, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, French Guiana, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Martinique, Norway, Switzerland, and Sri Lanka [21] . Some travelers were viremic, worrying public health officials about the spread of CHIKV to new areas [1, 8] . The incubation time for CHIKV is relatively short, requiring only 2-6 d with symptoms usually appearing 4-7 d post-infection [22] . Vazeille et al. detected CHIKV in the salivary glands of Ae. albopictus only 2 d after infection [5] . Upon infection, CHIKF tends to present itself in two phases. The first stage is acute, while the second stage, experienced by most but not all, is persistent, causing disabling polyarthritis. Characteristics of the acute phase include an abrupt onset of fever, arthralgia, and in some cases, maculopapular rash [6, 23] . The acute phase causes such intense joint and muscular pain that makes movement very difficult and prostrates its victims [6, 20] . Ninety-five percent of infected adults are symptomatic after infection, and of these, most become disabled for weeks to months as a result of decreased dexterity, loss of mobility, and delayed reaction. Eighteen months after disease onset, 40% of patients are found to still have anti-CHIKV IgM [6, 18, 23, 24] . The chronic stage of CHIKF is characterized by polyarthralgia that can last from weeks to years beyond the acute stage [6] . CHIKV has been shown to attack fibroblasts, explaining the involvement of muscles, joints, and skin connective tissues. The high number of nociceptive nerve endings found within the joints and muscle connective tissues can explain pain associated with CHIKF [25, 26] . More than 50% of patients who suffer from severe CHIKF are over 65 y old, and more than 33% of them die. Most adults who suffer from severe CHIKF have underlying medical conditions [6, 24, 27] . The other group that is disproportionately affected by severe CHIKV is children. Other complications associated with CHIKV, from most common to least common, include respiratory failure, cardiovascular decompensation, meningoencephalitis, severe acute hepatitis, severe cutaneous effects, other central nervous system problems, and kidney failure [6, 18, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27] . CHIKV undertakes a complex replication cycle upon host infection (Figure 2 ), which makes its genome susceptible to mutations [28, 29] . For instance, Ae. aegypti, responsible for epidemics in Kenya, Comoros, and Seychelles, carried CHIKV with an alanine in the 226 position of the E1 gene (E1-A226) [4, 18] . However, when the virus struck La Reunion Islands, a decline in population of Ae. aegypti, due to massive dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane usage and dearth of Ae. albopictus species' www.plosntds.org population, resulted in an ecological pressure, favoring replacement of alanine at position 226 with valine (E1-A226V) [5] . This mutation allowed CHIKV's secondary vector species, Ae. albopictus, to supplement Ae. aegypti as its primary vector [5] . Within a year, the E1-A226V mutation was present in La Reunion Island, and Ae. albopictus apparently vectored the large epidemic infecting 34% of La Reunion Island's population [5] . All of the CHIKV strains isolated from Mayotte carried the E1-A226V mutation, and the mutation was also found in Madagascar in 2007 [5] . The E1-A226V mutation was not present at the beginning of the Indian Ocean Islands outbreak (before September 2005). However, more than 90% of later viral strains found there had incorporated the mutation (December-March 2006), indicating a genotype switch during the winter season [5, 18, 20] . The E1-A226V mutation also enabled an increase in infectivity of Ae. albopictus when compared to its infectivity of Ae. aegypti [4, 11, 18, 30] , and with several factors taken together, Ae. albopictus has become the new preferred and more lethal vector for CHIKV [4, 5, 11] . In fact, Tsetsarkin et al. found that a Green Fluorescent Protein tagged E1-A226V virus was 100 times more infective to Ae. albopictus than it was to Ae. aegypti [4] . In all the Indian Ocean Islands, Ae. albopictus became the main vector for CHIKV within 1-2 y after CHIKV was introduced to the region [31] . Of note is that Ae. aegypti has most likely been established in North America for over 300 y, while Ae. albopictus has been in many areas of the US, since 1985, primarily in Florida [32] and since then has expanded its range in the country. Reiskind et al. set out to determine if Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes captured in Florida were susceptible to CHIKV infection by a La Reunion isolate [32] . Each mosquito tested was highly susceptible to infection by a full-length infectious clone of the La Réunion Island isolate, CHIKV LR2006 OPY1 strain. Even though the Ae. albopictus strains were more susceptible to infection, overall ecology and differences in human biting patterns need to be studied further Characteristically, there are two rounds of translation: (+) sense genomic RNA (49S9 = 11.7 kb) acts directly as mRNA and is partially translated (59 end) to produce non-structural proteins (nsp's). These proteins are responsible for replication and formation of a complementary (2) strand, the template for further (+) strand synthesis. Subgenomic mRNA (26 S = 4.1 kb) replication occurs through the synthesis of full-length (2) intermediate RNA, which is regulated by nsp4 and p123 precursor in early infection and later by mature nsp's. Translation of the newly synthesized sub-genomic RNA results in production of structural proteins such as Capsid and protein E2-6k-E1 (from 39 end of genome). Assembly occurs at the cell surface, and the envelope is acquired as the virus buds from the cell and release and maturation almost simultaneous occurred. Replication occurs in the cytoplasm and is very rapid (,4 h) [28, 29] . doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g002 www.plosntds.org to gain a more accurate understanding of a potential CHIKV epidemic in the US [32] . During the 7 d preceding birth, no human mother has been reported to transmit the disease vertically. However, about 50% of newborns delivered while the mother was infected with CHIKV contracted the disease from their mother, despite the method of delivery. Furthermore, there have been instances of CHIKV transmission from mother to fetus causing congenital illness and fetal death [33] . During the 2005-2006 La Reunion Island outbreaks, Ramful et al. discovered that mothers could transmit CHIKV to their progeny during the perinatal period (Day 24 to Day +1) [33, 34] , and it is associated with a high degree of morbidity. By mean Day 4 of life, all of the neonates were symptomatic for CHIKV, exhibiting common CHIKF symptoms. Six neonates were confirmed to have contracted CHIKV and developed mengoencephalitis. Of those mothers who, during the La Reunion Island epidemic, were infected long before delivery, only three fetal deaths were reported [12, 33] . Ramful et al. theorized that motherto-child transmission most likely happens transplacentally shortly before delivery [33] . A similar study by Gerardin et al. reported nineteen cases of neonatal infection associated with intrapartum maternal viremia that progressed to develop encephalitis owing to vertical transmission from infected mothers [34] . Clinical and epidemiological similarities with dengue fever make CHIKV diagnosis difficult, which may lead physicians to misdiagnose CHIKV as dengue fever; therefore, the incidence of CHIKV may actually be higher than currently believed (Table 1 ) [6, 12, 35] . The amount of time elapsed since disease onset is the most critical parameter when choosing a diagnostic test. CHIKV can be detected and isolated by culturing with mosquito cells (C6/36), Vero cells (mammalian), or in mice [26] . However, this method can take at least a week and only achieves a high sensitivity during the viremic phase, which usually only lasts up to 48 h after the bite. Five days post-infection, the viral isolation approach has a low sensitivity but is still the preferred method for detecting the CHIKV strain [12, 26, 31, 35] . RT-PCR on the other hand is a faster and more sensitive method that can be used within the first week of disease onset [26] , and it is currently the most sensitive method for detecting and quantifying viral mRNA [4, 36] . Classic serological detection, by assays such as ELISA [37] , immunofluorescence [5, 38] , complement binding, and haemagglutination inhibition [39] , constitutes the second diagnostic tool used for biological diagnosis of CHIKV infection. These proven techniques are useful for detection of Antigen in mosquitoes during epidemiological studies. These assays detect virus-specific IgM and IgG, however the sensitivity and specificity of these assays has been poorly characterized. Viral competence, or the potential of viral infection and transmission, is an important parameter that can be quantified by ELISA, viral culture, and PCR. A study by Ng et al. showed biomarkers indicative of severe CHIKV infection [40] . They found decreased levels of RANTES and increased levels of Interleukin-6 (IL-6) and Interleukin-1b (IL-1b) that could be sued for CHIKV detection in patients as indicators of CHIKV-driven cytokine storm. Couderc et al. demonstrate another cytokine, type-I IFN, as a key player in the progression to CHIKV infection [26] . Using an IFN-a/b null mouse model, they demonstrated evidence of muscles, joints, and skin as privileged CHIKV targets, which is consistent with human pathology. Although Ng et al. concluded that RANTES levels were significantly suppressed in severe CHIKF patients [40] , interestingly, an increase in levels of RANTES has been observed in dengue infection [41] . Since the symptoms of CHIKF mimic those of dengue fever, results obtained from this study strongly suggest that RANTES could be a potential distinctive biomarker that differentiates between these two clinically similar diseases. There are no approved antiviral treatments currently available for CHIKV [1, 3, 12, 42] . Currently, CHIKF is treated symptomatically, usually with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or steroids, bed rest, and fluids. Movement and mild exercise are thought to decrease stiffness and morning arthralgia, but heavy exercise may exacerbate rheumatic symptoms. Corticosteroids may be used in cases of debilitating chronic CHIKV infection. There is a debate about the appropriateness of chloroquine as treatment for unresolved, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugresistant arthritis [43] . A study showed that viral production was www.plosntds.org drastically reduced at 16 h post-infection after treatment with 100 mM dec-RVKR-cmk (Decanoyl-Arg-Val-Lys-Arg-chloromethylketone), a furine inhibitor [42, 44] . Chloroquine acted by raising the pH, blocking low pH-dependent entry of virus into the cell. It is important to note that dec-RVKR-cmk or chloroquine only inhibited viral spreading from cell to cell, not CHIKV replication once it had entered the cell [43] . However, most would agree that the best weapon against CHIKV is prevention. A live CHIKV vaccine developed by the United States reached phase II clinical trial encompassing 59 healthy volunteers [45] . Eight percent of the volunteers experienced transient arthralgia, while 98% of the volunteers had seroconversion [45] . However, live CHIKV vaccines are still questionable. One cannot discount the risk of a live vaccine possibly inducing chronic rheumatism. Also, there is the question as to whether widespread use among the public could trigger mosquito transmission or lead to chronic infection or viral reversion [1] . An alternative approach would be to produce a chimeric vaccine against CHIKV. Wang et al. developed a chimeric alphavirus vaccine that is uniformly attenuated and does not cause reactogenicity in mice [3] . Three different versions of this vaccine were made using three different backbone vectors: Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) attenuated vaccine strain T-83, naturally attenuated eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV), and attenuated Sindbis virus (SINV). In short, CHIKV structural proteins were engineered into the backbones of the aforementioned vaccines to produce the chimeras [3] . These chimeras were found to stimulate a strong humoral immunity, and even at doses of 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU, they did not trigger reactogenicity. When vaccinated mice were challenged with CHIKV, neither adult nor neonatal mice gained weight, had fever, or displayed signs of neurological illness. Upon comparison of the chimeras with the Army181/25 vaccine, the Army vaccine resulted in higher levels of viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice. Because the joints are known targets of CHIKV, Wang et al. noted their vaccine might avoid the negative reactogenic side effects of the Army vaccine. After being subcutaneously vaccinated with 5.3-5.8 log 10 PFU of the chimeric vaccines, mice produced strong neutralizing antibody titers. The VEEV and EEEV chimeras yielded higher neutralizing antibody titers than the SINV chimera without being more virulent. On top of this, the VEEV and EEEV CHIKV chimeras seemed to be more immunogenic than the Army vaccine despite the chimeras' lower viremia and replication in the joints of neonatal mice [3] . Tiwari et al. [46] adopted a different strategy using formalin inactivated CHIKV in combination with alhydrogel (Aluminum Hydroxide) as an adjuvant. This study clearly suggests that this vaccine elicits both humoral and cell-mediated immune responses in mice, providing its immunogenic potential. A recent study by Couderc et al. [47] showed passive immunization as a potential treatment for CHIKV infection. Using purified immunoglobulin extracted from convalescent CHIKV patients, they demonstrated effective neutralizing activity against CHIKV infection both in vitro and in vivo. This thereby establishes a potential preventive and therapeutic approach to combat CHIKV infection. Pathogenesis studies conducted with related alpha virus, like RRV, have shown the role of macrophages in persistence on infection [48] . They also demonstrated the role of RRV-specific CD8 T cells in clearing viral load in infected patients, thereby warranting similar investigations with CHIKV and the importance of investigating a cell-mediated immune response-based vaccine against CHIKV [49] . There are always certain risks associated with live attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines [50] . One way to avoid these potential problems is to construct a consensus-based DNA vaccine. DNA based vaccines have an improved safety profile as compared to live or attenuated vaccines [51, 52] . A consequence of CHIKV's rapid evolution is difficulty in constructing a vaccine that will be able to Figure 3 . Levels of CHIKV-specific IgG in mice immunized with CHIKV vaccines. Each group of C57BL/6 mice (n = 5) was immunized with 12.5 mg of pVax1 control vector or CHIKV vaccine plasmids as indicated at 0 and 2 wk. Mice were bled 2 wk after each immunization, and each group's serum pool was diluted to 1:100 and 1:500 for reaction with specific vaccine constructs. Serum was incubated for 1 h at 37uC on 96-well plates coated with 2 mg/ml of respective CHIKV peptides, and antibody was detected using anti-mouse IgG-HRP and OD was measured at 405 nm. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0000623.g003 www.plosntds.org effectively protect large populations from multiple strains of the virus. One of the strengths of DNA consensus vaccines is its ability to induce cross-reactive immune responses against the three distinct phylogenetic groups of CHIKV. Also DNA-based vaccines can be produced more rapidly than protein-based vaccines. Recently, Muthumani et al. constructed a vaccine that was shown to induce both humoral and cellular immunity in vivo in 3-4-wk-old female C57/BL6 mice [49] . These mice were immunized using an in vivo electroporation method to deliver the vaccine into the quadriceps muscle. The consensus construct was designed against E1, E2, and the core protein capsid. To design the construct, they aligned 21 sequences of CHIKV isolated between 1952 and 2006, using strains from differing countries, including La Reunion Island. The most common nucleotide among the sequences was chosen at each position to be used in the consensus construct, taking care not to alter the reading frame. They conducted codon and RNA optimization, added a strong Kozak sequence, and substituted signal peptide with an immunoglobulin E leader sequence to improve vaccine efficacy. After immunizing the mice, spleens were harvested along with serum and tested to determine antibody titer. After three immunizations, consensus E1, E2, and C vaccines were shown to induce T-cell immune responses leading to strong IFN-c responses and proliferation in C57/BL6 mice. Furthermore, when compared with control mice, immunized mice had higher total IgG levels as well as higher anti-E1 specific, anti-E2 specific, and anti-C specific IgG antibodies, suggesting a strong humoral immune response ( Figure 3 ) and also specificity for the antigens encoded in the vaccine constructs ( Figure 4 ). Because of its promising results and the need for a safer vaccine, this consensus DNA vaccine deserves further investigation. Determining longevity of protective effects of the vaccine and persistence of antibody and IFN-c responses could be the next step of investigation. Challenged studies of immunized mice must also be carried out. CHIKV mosquito-borne disease has caused massive outbreaks for at least half a century but is no longer confined to the www.plosntds.org developing nations. It began to encroach into the boundaries of the developing world. As a result, the NIAID has designated CHIKV as a Category C pathogen alongside the influenza and SARS-CoV viruses [3] . Realization of the potential severity of this disease is exigent; for instance, if used as a biological weapon, the world economy could be severely crippled; if enough members of the armed forces were to become infected during a military deployment, military operations could be significantly affected. Efforts to monitor the disease will only provide minimal warning in a global society, and steps to prevent the morbidity and mortality associated with pandemic are imperative [21, 31] . Despite the gravity of its infectious potency and the fear of it being a potential biological weapon, there is currently no vaccine for CHIKV infections. Live attenuated vaccine trials were carried out in 2000, but funding for the project was discontinued. Newer approaches such as DNA vaccines appear promising over conventional strategies like live attenuated or inactivated virus and thus call for further investigation. Recent advances such electroporation delivery and incorporation of adjuvants has boosted DNA vaccine efficacy [51, 53] . Despite the low antibody response to DNA vaccines, other numerous advantages have overshadowed these minor drawbacks (Table 2) , the most important one being the ability to induce both humoral and cellular immune responses [51, 54] . Judging by recent success, such as the immunogenic construct developed by Muthumani et al., DNA vaccines could play a major role in combating CHIKV [49] . Vaccines are literally a critical component of CHIKV disease control and therefore research in this area is highly encouraged. The dramatic spread of dengue viruses (DENV) throughout tropical America since 1980 via the same vectors and human hosts underscores the risk to public health in the Americas. The adverse events associated with the current live vaccine are well documented [55] . Realizing these drawbacks, earnest efforts should be taken to develop new strategies to forestall further spread and complications.

What is the word Chikungunya mean?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What is the reason for the involvement of respiratory viruses in exacerbation?

Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030674 SHA: 1d7f8850c5244fdc9b387038e7eeae9bcbbde6d2 Authors: Al-Qaness, Mohammed A. A.; Ewees, Ahmed A.; Fan, Hong; Abd El Aziz, Mohamed Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030674 License: cc-by Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances. Text: A large family of viruses, called coronaviruses, are severe pathogens for human beings, which infect respiratory, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurologic diseases. They are distributed among humans, birds, livestock, mice, bats, and other wild animals [1] [2] [3] . The outbreaks of two previous coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in 2003 and 2012, respectively, have approved the transmission from animal to animal, and human to human [4] . In December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) received notifications from China for many cases of respiratory illness that were linked to some people who had visited a seafood market in Wuhan [5] . Currently, Wuhan city suffers from the spreading of a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19 (previously, it was called 2019-nCoV). In [6] , the authors concluded that COVID-19 likely originated in bats, because it is more similar to two bat-derived coronavirus strains. However, the source of the COVID-19 is not confirmed yet, and it communities, Hong Kong and Toronto, were 1.2 and 1.32, respectively. Ong et al. [20] proposed a monitoring and forecasting model for influenza A (H1N1-2009). Furthermore, Nah et al. [21] proposed a probability-based model to predict the spread of the MERS. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) [22] is widely applied in time series prediction and forecasting problems, and it showed good performance in many existing applications. It offers flexibility in determining nonlinearity in the time series data, as well as combining the properties of both artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic systems. It has been applied in various forecasting applications, for example, in [23] , a stock price forecasting model was proposed using ANFIS and empirical mode decomposition. Chen et al. [24] proposed a TAIEX time series forecasting model based on a hybrid of ANFIS and ordered weighted averaging (OWA). In [25] , another time series forecasting method was presented for electricity prices based on ANFIS. Svalina et al. [26] proposed an ANFIS based forecasting model for close price indices for a stock market for five days. Ekici and Aksoy [27] presented an ANFIS based building energy consumption forecasting model. More so, ANFIS is also applied to forecast electricity loads [28] . Kumar et al. [29] proposed an ANFIS based model to forecast return products. Ho and Tsai [30] applied ANFIS to forecast product development performance. However, estimating ANFIS parameters is a challenge that needs to be improved. Therefore, in previous studies, some individual swarm intelligence (SI) methods have been applied to the ANFIS parameters to enhance time series forecasting because these parameters have a significant effect on the performance of ANFIS. The SI methods include the particle swarm optimization (PSO) [31, 32] , social-spider optimization [33] , sine-cosine algorithm (SCA) [34] , and multi-verse optimizer (MVO) [35] . For example, in [34] SCA algorithm was applied to improve the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in three countries, namely, Canada, Germany, and Japan. In the same context, in [35] , The MVO algorithm was used to enhance the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in two countries. In addition, in [36] the PSO was used with ANFIS to predict biochar yield. However, individual SI algorithms may stock at local optima. Therefore, one solution is to apply hybrid SI algorithms to avoid this problem. In [37] , a hybrid of two SI algorithms, namely GA and SSA, was presented to improve the ANFIS model. The proposed new model called GA-SSA-ANFIS was applied to forecast crude oil prices for long-term time series data. However, the previously mentioned methods suffer from some limitations that can affect the performance of the forecasting output such as slow convergence and the ability to balance between exploration and exploitation phases can influence the quality of the final output. This motivated us to propose an alternative forecasting method dependent on the hybridization concept. This concept avoids the limitations of traditional SI techniques by combining the strengths of different techniques, and this produces new SI techniques that are better than traditional ones. In the current study, we propose an improved ANFIS model based on a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). The FPA is an optimization algorithm proposed by Yang [38] , which was inspired by the flow pollination process of the flowering plants. The FPA was employed in various optimization applications, for example to estimate solar PV parameter [39, 40] , solving sudoku puzzles [41] , feature selection [42] , antenna design [43] , and other applications [44] [45] [46] [47] . Moreover, SSA is also an optimization algorithm proposed by Mirjalili et al. [48] inspired by the behavior of salp chains. In recent years, the SSA was utilized to solve different optimization problems, such as feature selection [49, 50] , data classification [51] , image segmentation [52] , and others [53, 54] . The proposed method called FPASSA is a hybrid of FPA and SSA, in which the SSA is applied as a local search method for FPA. The proposed FPASSA starts by receiving the historical COVID-19 dataset. Then a set of solutions is generated where each of them represents the value for the parameters of the ANFIS model. Then the quality of each solution is calculated using the fitness value, and the solution that has the best fitness value is chosen to represent the best solution. Then the probability of each solution is computed. Then the current solution will be updated, either using global or local strategy in FPA. However, in the case of local strategy, the operators of SSA or FPA will be used according to the probability of the fitness value for each solution. The process of updating the solutions is repeated until reaching the stop condition, and the best parameter configurations are used to forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The main contribution points of the current study are as follows: 1. We propose an efficient forecasting model to forecast the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China for the upcoming ten days based on previously confirmed cases. An improved ANFIS model is proposed using a modified FPA algorithm, using SSA. We compare the proposed model with the original ANFIS and existing modified ANFIS models, such as PSO, GA, ABC, and FPA. The rest of this study is organized as follows. The preliminaries of ANFIS, FPA, and SSA are described in Section 2. Section 3 presents the proposed FPASSA, and Section 4 presents the experimental setup and results. We conclude this study in Section 5. The principles of the ANFIS are given in this section. The ANFIS model links the fuzzy logic and neural networks [22] . It generates a mapping between the input and output by applying IF-THEN rules (it is also called Takagi-Sugeno inference model). Figure 1 illustrates the ANFIS model where, y and x define the inputs to Layer 1 whereas, O 1i is its output of node i that is computed as follows: where µ denotes the generalized Gaussian membership functions. A i and B i define the membership values of µ. α i and ρ i denote the premise parameters set. The output of Layer 2 (it is also known as the firing strength of a rule) is calculated as follows: Meanwhile, the output of Layer 3 (it is also known as the normalized firing strength) is calculated as follows: The output of Layer 4 (it is also known as an adaptive node) is calculated as follows: where r i , q i , and p i define the consequent parameters of the node i. Layer 5 contains only one node; its output is computed as: Flower Pollination Algorithm is an optimization method proposed by Yang [38] . It simulates the transfer of flowers' pollen by pollinators in nature. This algorithm utilizes the two types of pollination (i.e., self-pollination and cross-pollination). In self-pollination, the pollination occurs with no pollinators, whereas, in cross-pollination, the pollens are moved between different plants. In more detail, the self-pollination can be represented as a local pollination while the cross-pollination can be called global pollination. The global pollination or cross-pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i defines the pollen i at iteration t. L denotes the pollination's strength or the step size. F * is the target position or best solution. In some cases, insects can fly with different distance steps for a long space; therefore, Levy fly distribution is applied to simulate this movement. where λ = 1.5. Γ(λ) denotes the gamma function. This distribution is available for large steps s > 0. The self-pollination or local pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i and x k i represent pollens from different flower in the same plant. in the range [0,1] The process of pollination can be done using cross-pollination or self-pollination. Therefore, the random variable p, in the range [0, 1], is used to determine this process. SSA is an optimization technique introduced by [48] . It simulates the Salps' behavior in nature. This behavior is called salp chain. The mathematical model of SSA begins by splinting its population into a leader group and followers group. The leader is the front salp, whereas, the followers are the other salps. The search space is determined in n-dimensions with n variables. Equation (10) works to update the salps' positions. where x 1 j denotes the leader's position in j-th dimension. F j is the target position. ub j and lb j represent the max and min bounds, respectively. c 2 and c 3 denote random numbers in [0, 1]. c 1 is an important parameter; it balances between the exploration and exploitation phases. It is computed as follows: where the current loop number is t and the max loop' number is t max . Then, the followers' position is updated as follows: where x i j defines the i-th position of the follower in j-th dimension. i > 1. This section explains the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS method. It is a time series method for forecasting the confirmed cases of the COVID-19, as given in Figure 2 . The FPASSA-ANFIS utilizes the improved FPA to train the ANFIS model by optimizing its parameters. The FPASSA-ANFIS contains five layers as the classic ANFIS model. Layer 1 contains the input variables (the historical COVID-19 confirmed cases). Whereas Layer 5 produces the forecasted values. In the learning phase, the FPASSA is used to select the best weights between Layer 4 and Layer 5. The FPASSA-ANFIS starts by formatting the input data in a time series form. In our case, the autocorrelation function (ACF) was considered. ACF is one of the methods applied to find patterns in the data; it presents information about the correlation between points separated by various time lags. Therefore, in this paper, the variables with ACF greater than 0.2 are considered i.e., 5-lags. Besides, the training data contains 75% of the dataset, whereas the testing data contains 25% of them. The number of clusters is defined by the fuzzy c-mean (FCM) method to construct the ANFIS model. The parameters of the ANFIS model are prepared by the FPASSA algorithm. In the training phase, the calculation error (as in Equation (13)) between the real data and the predicted data is used to evaluate the parameters' quality. where T is the real data, and P is the predicted data. N s is the sample length. The smaller values of the objective function indicate good ANFIS's parameter. On the other hand, the updating phase of the followers' positions in the SSA algorithm is applied to improve the global pollination phase in the FPA algorithm. In this improvement, there is a random variable (r) used to switch between both phases. If r > 0.5, then the operators of the SSA is used; otherwise, the operators of the FPA are used. In general, The FPASSA starts by constructing the population (X); afterward, the objective function is calculated for each solution. The solution with the lowest error value is saved to the next iteration. This sequence is repeated until meeting the stop condition, which in this paper, is the maximum number of iterations. Then the best solution is passed to train the parameters of the ANFIS model. After finishing the training phase, the testing phase is started with the best solution to compute the final output. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the real data with the predicted data using the performance measures. Finally, the FPASSA produces a foretasted value for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China in the next day. The steps of the proposed FPASSA are presented in Algorithm 1. Input: Historical COVID-19 dataset, size of population N, total number of iterations t max . Divide the data into training and testing sets. Using Fuzzy c-mean method to determine the number of membership functions. Constructing the ANFIS network. Set the initial value for N solutions (X). Return the best solution that represents the best configuration for ANFIS. Apply the testing set to the best ANFIS model. Forecasting the COVID-19 for the next ten days. This section presents the description of the used dataset, the performance measures, the parameter setting for all methods, the experiment results, and discussions. The main dataset of this study is COVID-19 dataset. It was collected from the WHO website (https: //www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/). It contains the daily confirmed cases in China from 21 January 2020 to 18 February 2020, as shown in Table 1 . We used 75% from the dataset to train the model while the rest is used to test it. Moreover, we evaluated the performance of the proposed method using two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases. The first one is called DS1; it was collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/). It starts from week number 40 in 2015 and continues until week number 6 in 2020. Whereas, the second one is called DS2. It was collected from the WHO website (https://www.who.int/influenza). It contains the data of weekly influenza confirmed cases in China from week number 1 in 2016 to week number 8 in 2020. The quality of the proposed method is evaluated using a set of performance metrics as follows: • Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): where Yp and Y are the predicted and original values, respectively. • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): • Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE): N s represents the sample size of the data. • Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): where Y represents the average of Y. The lowest value of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and RMSRE refers to the best method. The higher value of R 2 indicates better correlation for the method. This paper aims to assess the ability of the FPASSA to forecast the COVID-19 by comparing its performance with other methods, namely the ANFIS and the trained ANFIS models using PSO, GA, ABC, FPA, and FPASSA. The parameters' setting for these models is listed in Table 2 . The common parameters, such as population size, are set to 25 and 100 iterations are applied. Besides, each algorithm is performed for 30 independent runs to fair comparisons. The selected parameters are chosen because they produced good behavior in previous experiments, such as [34, 35, 55, 56] . Table 2 . Parameters' setting. Parameters Setting Max. epochs = 100, Error goal = 0, Initial step = 0.01, Decrease rate = 0.9, Increase rate = 1. In this section, the performance of the proposed FPASSA to predict the DS1 and DS2 is discussed. It can be concluded from Table 3 that the performance of FPASSA outperformed the compared methods in all measures, whereas the FPA is ranked second. The results of DS2 indicate that the FPASSA is ranked first in terms of RMSE, MAPE, R 2 , and the CPU time. Whereas, the PSO is ranked second, followed by the FPA, GA, then ABC. These results denote that the proposed method can optimize the parameters of the ANFIS model effectively and produce good results in terms of the performance measures. Comparison results between the proposed FPASSA and other models to forecast COVID-19 are given in Table 4 . It can be concluded that the FPASSA outperforms other models. For example, by analyzing the results of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and CPU time(s) it can be observed that the FPASSA achieves the smallest value among the comparison algorithms, and this indicates the high quality of the FPASSA. Meanwhile, the FPA allocates the second rank, which provides better results than the rest of the methods. Moreover, the value of R 2 refers to the high correlation between the prediction obtained by the proposed FPASSA method and the original COVID-19, which has nearly 0.97. This can also be noticed from Figure 3 , which depicts the training of the algorithms using the historical data of the COVID-19 as well as their forecasting values for ten days. Table 5 depicts the forecasting value for the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China from 19/2/2020 to 28/2/2020. From these results, it can be noticed that the outbreak will reach its highest level on the day 28/2/2020. The average percentage of the increase over the forecasted period is 10%, the highest percentage is 12% on 28/2/2020, and the lowest percentage is 8.7% on 19/2/2020. From the previous results, it can be concluded that the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS has a high ability to forecast the COVID-19 dataset. These results avoid the limitations of traditional ANFIS because of the combination with the modified FPA method. Moreover, the operators of SSA are combined with the local strategy of FPA to enhance their exploitation ability. However, the time computational of the proposed FPASSA method still requires more improvements. This paper proposed a modified version for the flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). This modified version, called FPASSA, is applied to improve the performance of the ANFIS through determining the optimal value for its parameters. The developed FPASSA-ANFIS model is applied as a forecasting technique for a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, that was discovered in Wuhan, China at the end of last year and January of the current year. The proposed FPASSA-ANFIS model has a high ability to predict the number of confirmed cases within ten days. Besides, FPASSA-ANFIS outperforms other forecasting models in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and R 2 . Furthermore, two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in the USA and China were used to evaluate the proposed method, and the evaluation outcomes showed its good performance. According to the promising results obtained by the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS, it can be applied in different forecasting applications.

What is MVO?

Genomic characterization of the 2019 novel human-pathogenic coronavirus isolated from a patient with atypical pneumonia after visiting Wuhan https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7067204/ SHA: c097a8a9a543d69c34f10e5c3fd78019e560026a Authors: Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo; Kok, Kin-Hang; Zhu, Zheng; Chu, Hin; To, Kelvin Kai-Wang; Yuan, Shuofeng; Yuen, Kwok-Yung Date: 2020-01-28 DOI: 10.1080/22221751.2020.1719902 License: cc-by Abstract: A mysterious outbreak of atypical pneumonia in late 2019 was traced to a seafood wholesale market in Wuhan of China. Within a few weeks, a novel coronavirus tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was announced by the World Health Organization. We performed bioinformatics analysis on a virus genome from a patient with 2019-nCoV infection and compared it with other related coronavirus genomes. Overall, the genome of 2019-nCoV has 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-like-CoVZXC21 and 82% with that of human SARS-CoV. The phylogenetic trees of their orf1a/b, Spike, Envelope, Membrane and Nucleoprotein also clustered closely with those of the bat, civet and human SARS coronaviruses. However, the external subdomain of Spike’s receptor binding domain of 2019-nCoV shares only 40% amino acid identity with other SARS-related coronaviruses. Remarkably, its orf3b encodes a completely novel short protein. Furthermore, its new orf8 likely encodes a secreted protein with an alpha-helix, following with a beta-sheet(s) containing six strands. Learning from the roles of civet in SARS and camel in MERS, hunting for the animal source of 2019-nCoV and its more ancestral virus would be important for understanding the origin and evolution of this novel lineage B betacoronavirus. These findings provide the basis for starting further studies on the pathogenesis, and optimizing the design of diagnostic, antiviral and vaccination strategies for this emerging infection. Text: Coronaviruses (CoVs) are enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses that belong to the subfamily Coronavirinae, family Coronavirdiae, order Nidovirales. There are four genera of CoVs, namely, Alphacoronavirus (αCoV), Betacoronavirus (βCoV), Deltacoronavirus (δCoV), and Gammacoronavirus (γCoV) [1] . Evolutionary analyses have shown that bats and rodents are the gene sources of most αCoVs and βCoVs, while avian species are the gene sources of most δCoVs and γCoVs. CoVs have repeatedly crossed species barriers and some have emerged as important human pathogens. The best-known examples include severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) which emerged in China in 2002-2003 to cause a large-scale epidemic with about 8000 infections and 800 deaths, and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) which has caused a persistent epidemic in the Arabian Peninsula since 2012 [2, 3] . In both of these epidemics, these viruses have likely originated from bats and then jumped into another amplification mammalian host [the Himalayan palm civet (Paguma larvata) for SARS-CoV and the dromedary camel (Camelus dromedarius) for MERS-CoV] before crossing species barriers to infect humans. Prior to December 2019, 6 CoVs were known to infect human, including 2 αCoV (HCoV-229E and HKU-NL63) and 4 βCoV (HCoV-OC43 [ HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 usually cause self-limiting upper respiratory infections in immunocompetent hosts and occasionally lower respiratory tract infections in immunocompromised hosts and elderly [4] . In contrast, SARS-CoV (lineage B βCoV) and MERS-CoV (lineage C βCoV) may cause severe lower respiratory tract infection with acute respiratory distress syndrome and extrapulmonary manifestations, such as diarrhea, lymphopenia, deranged liver and renal function tests, and multiorgan dysfunction syndrome, among both immunocompetent and immunocompromised hosts with mortality rates of ∼10% and ∼35%, respectively [5, 6] . On 31 December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [7] . Subsequent virological testing showed that a novel CoV was detected in these patients. As of 16 January 2020, 43 patients have been diagnosed to have infection with this novel CoV, including two exported cases of mild pneumonia in Thailand and Japan [8, 9] . The earliest date of symptom onset was 1 December 2019 [10] . The symptomatology of these patients included fever, malaise, dry cough, and dyspnea. Among 41 patients admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan, 13 (32%) required intensive care and 6 (15%) died. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest computerized tomography scans [10] . We recently reported a familial cluster of 2019-nCoV infection in a Shenzhen family with travel history to Wuhan [11] . In the present study, we analyzed a 2019-nCoV complete genome from a patient in this familial cluster and compared it with the genomes of related βCoVs to provide insights into the potential source and control strategies. The complete genome sequence of 2019-nCoV HKU-SZ-005b was available at GenBank (accession no. MN975262) ( Table 1 ). The representative complete genomes of other related βCoVs strains collected from human or mammals were included for comparative analysis. These included strains collected from human, bats, and Himalayan palm civet between 2003 and 2018, with one 229E coronavirus strain as the outgroup. Phylogenetic tree construction by the neighbour joining method was performed using MEGA X software, with bootstrap values being calculated from 1000 trees [12] . The percentage of replicate trees in which the associated taxa clustered together in the bootstrap test (1000 replicates) was shown next to the branches [13] . The tree was drawn to scale, with branch lengths in the same units as those of the evolutionary distances used to infer the phylogenetic tree. The evolutionary distances were computed using the Poisson correction method and were in the units of the number of amino acid substitutions per site [14] . All ambiguous positions were removed for each sequence pair (pairwise deletion option). Evolutionary analyses were conducted in MEGA X [15] . Multiple alignment was performed using CLUSTAL 2.1 and further visualized using BOX-SHADE 3.21. Structural analysis of orf8 was performed using PSI-blast-based secondary structure PREDiction (PSIPRED) [16] . For the prediction of protein secondary structure including beta sheet, alpha helix, and coil, initial amino acid sequences were input and analysed using neural networking and its own algorithm. Predicted structures were visualized and highlighted on the BOX-SHADE alignment. Prediction of transmembrane domains was performed using the TMHMM 2.0 server (http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/TMHMM/). Secondary structure prediction in the 5 ′ -untranslated region (UTR) and 3 ′ -UTR was performed using the RNAfold WebServer (http://rna.tbi.univie.ac.at/cgi-bin/ RNAWebSuite/RNAfold.cgi) with minimum free energy (MFE) and partition function in Fold algorithms and Table 2 . Putative functions and proteolytic cleavage sites of 16 nonstructural proteins in orf1a/b as predicted by bioinformatics. Putative function/domain Amino acid position Putative cleave site complex with nsp3 and 6: DMV formation complex with nsp3 and 4: DMV formation short peptide at the end of orf1a basic options. The human SARS-CoV 5 ′ -and 3 ′ -UTR were used as references to adjust the prediction results. The single-stranded RNA genome of the 2019-nCoV was 29891 nucleotides in size, encoding 9860 amino acids. The G + C content was 38%. Similar to other (Table 2 ). There are no remarkable differences between the orfs and nsps of 2019-nCoV with those of SARS-CoV (Table 3) . The major distinction between SARSr-CoV and SARS-CoV is in orf3b, Spike and orf8 but especially variable in Spike S1 and orf8 which were previously shown to be recombination hot spots. Spike glycoprotein comprised of S1 and S2 subunits. The S1 subunit contains a signal peptide, followed by an N-terminal domain (NTD) and receptor-binding domain (RBD), while the S2 subunit contains conserved fusion peptide (FP), heptad repeat (HR) 1 and 2, transmembrane domain (TM), and cytoplasmic domain (CP). We found that the S2 subunit of 2019-nCoV is highly conserved and shares 99% identity with those of the two bat SARS-like CoVs (SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45) and human SARS-CoV (Figure 2 ). Thus the broad spectrum antiviral peptides against S2 would be an important preventive and treatment modality for testing in animal models before clinical trials [18] . Though the S1 subunit of 2019-nCoV shares around 70% identity to that of the two bat SARS-like CoVs and human SARS-CoV (Figure 3(A) ), the core domain of RBD (excluding the external subdomain) are highly conserved (Figure 3(B) ). Most of the amino acid differences of RBD are located in the external subdomain, which is responsible for the direct interaction with the host receptor. Further investigation of this soluble variable external subdomain region will reveal its receptor usage, interspecies transmission and pathogenesis. Unlike 2019-nCoV and human SARS-CoV, most known bat SARSr-CoVs have two stretches of deletions in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) when compared with that of human SARS-CoV. But some Yunnan strains such as the WIV1 had no such deletions and can use human ACE2 as a cellular entry receptor. It is interesting to note that the two bat SARS-related coronavirus ZXC21 and ZC45, being closest to 2019-nCoV, can infect suckling rats and cause inflammation in the brain tissue, and pathological changes in lung & intestine. However, these two viruses could not be isolated in Vero E6 cells and were not investigated further. The two retained deletion sites in the Spike genes of ZXC21 and ZC45 may lessen their likelihood of jumping species barriers imposed by receptor specificity. A novel short putative protein with 4 helices and no homology to existing SARS-CoV or SARS-r-CoV protein was found within Orf3b ( Figure 4 ). It is notable that SARS-CoV deletion mutants lacking orf3b replicate to levels similar to those of wildtype virus in several cell types [19] , suggesting that orf3b is dispensable for viral replication in vitro. But orf3b may have a role in viral pathogenicity as Vero E6 but not 293T cells transfected with a construct expressing Orf3b underwent necrosis as early as 6 h after transfection and underwent simultaneous necrosis and apoptosis at later time points [20] . Orf3b was also shown to inhibit expression of IFN-β at synthesis and signalling [21] . Subsequently, orf3b homologues identified from three bat SARSrelated-CoV strains were C-terminally truncated and lacked the C-terminal nucleus localization signal of SARS-CoV [22] . IFN antagonist activity analysis demonstrated that one SARS-related-CoV orf3b still possessed IFN antagonist and IRF3-modulating activities. These results indicated that different orf3b proteins display different IFN antagonist activities and this function is independent of the protein's nuclear localization, suggesting a potential link between bat SARS-related-CoV orf3b function and pathogenesis. The importance of this new protein in 2019-nCoV will require further validation and study. Orf8 orf8 is an accessory protein found in the Betacoronavirus lineage B coronaviruses. Human SARS-CoVs isolated from early-phase patients, all civet SARS-CoVs, and other bat SARS-related CoVs contain fulllength orf8 [23] . However, a 29-nucleotide deletion, Bat SL-CoV ZXC21 2018 Bat which causes the split of full length of orf8 into putative orf8a and orf8b, has been found in all SARS-CoV isolated from mid-and late-phase human patients [24] . In addition, we have previously identified two bat SARS-related-CoV (Bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C) and proposed that the original SARS-CoV full-length orf8 is acquired from these two bat SARS-related-CoV [25] . Since the SARS-CoV is the closest human pathogenic virus to the 2019-nCoV, we performed phylogenetic analysis and multiple alignments to investigate the orf8 amino acid sequences. The orf8 protein sequences used in the analysis derived from early phase SARS-CoV that includes full-length orf8 (human SARS-CoV GZ02), the mid-and late-phase SARS-CoV that includes the split orf8b (human SARS-CoV Tor2), civet SARS-CoV (paguma SARS-CoV), two bat SARS-related-CoV containing full-length orf8 (bat-CoV YNLF_31C and YNLF_34C), 2019-nCoV, the other two closest bat SARS-related-CoV to 2019-nCoV SL-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45), and bat SARS-related-CoV HKU3-1 ( Figure 5(A) ). As expected, orf8 derived from 2019-nCoV belongs to the group that includes the closest genome sequences of bat SARS-related-CoV ZXC21 and ZC45. Interestingly, the new 2019-nCoV orf8 is distant from the conserved orf8 or Figure 5(B) ) which was shown to trigger intracellular stress pathways and activates NLRP3 inflammasomes [26] , but this is absent in this novel orf8 of 2019-nCoV. Based on a secondary structure prediction, this novel orf8 has a high possibility to form a protein with an alpha-helix, following with a betasheet(s) containing six strands ( Figure 5(C) ). The genome of 2019-nCoV has overall 89% nucleotide identity with bat SARS-related-CoV SL-CoVZXC21 (MG772934.1), and 82% with human SARS-CoV BJ01 2003 (AY278488) and human SARS-CoV Tor2 (AY274119). The phylogenetic trees constructed using the amino acid sequences of orf1a/b and the 4 structural genes (S, E, M, and N) were shown (Figure 6(A-E) ). For all these 5 genes, the 2019-nCoV was clustered with lineage B βCoVs. It was most closely related to the bat SARS-related CoVs ZXC21 and ZC45 found in Chinese horseshoe As shown in Figure 7 (A-C), the SARS-CoV 5 ′ -UTR contains SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, SL5C, SL6, SL7, and SL8. The SL3 contains trans-cis motif [27] . The SL1, SL2, SL3, SL4, S5, SL5A, SL5B, and SL5C structures were similar among the 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and the bat SARS-related ZC45. In the 2019-nCoV, part of the S5 found was inside Figure 7 Continued the orf1a/b (marked in red), which was similar to SARS-CoV. In bat SARS-related CoV ZC45, the S5 was not found inside orf1a/b. The 2019-nCoV had the same SL6, SL7, and SL8 as SARS-CoV, and an additional stem loop. Bat SARS-related CoV ZC45 did not have the SARS-COV SL6-like stem loop. Instead, it possessed two other stem loops in this region. All three strains had similar SL7 and SL8. The bat SARS-like CoV ZC45 also had an additional stem loop between SL7 and SL8. Overall, the 5 ′ -UTR of 2019-nCoV was more similar to that of SARS-CoV than the bat SARS-related CoV ZC 45. The biological relevance and effects of virulence of the 5 ′ -UTR structures should be investigated further. The 2019-nCoV had various 3 ′ -UTR structures, including BSL, S1, S2, S3, S4, L1, L2, L3, and HVR (Figure 7(D-F) ). The 3 ′ -UTR was conserved among 2019-nCoV, human SARS-CoV and SARS-related CoVs [27] . In summary, 2019-nCoV is a novel lineage B Betacoronavirus closely related to bat SARS-related coronaviruses. It also has unique genomic features which deserves further investigation to ascertain their roles in viral replication cycle and pathogenesis. More animal sampling to determine its natural animal reservoir and intermediate animal host in the market is important. This will shed light on the evolutionary history of this emerging coronavirus which has jumped into human after the other two zoonotic Betacoroanviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

What high possibility does the novel orf8 have?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is the efficacy of LAIV?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

Is influenza vaccination during pregnancy safe? How long does it protect the child?

Interferon-Induced Transmembrane Protein 3 Inhibits Hantaan Virus Infection, and Its Single Nucleotide Polymorphism rs12252 Influences the Severity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5206578/ SHA: 4328e18bdf9b52875c87f3f5ddb1911636a192d2 Authors: Xu-yang, Zheng; Pei-yu, Bian; Chuan-tao, Ye; Wei, Ye; Hong-wei, Ma; Kang, Tang; Chun-mei, Zhang; Ying-feng, Lei; Xin, Wei; Ping-zhong, Wang; Chang-xing, Huang; Xue-fan, Bai; Ying, Zhang; Zhan-sheng, Jia Date: 2017-01-03 DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2016.00535 License: cc-by Abstract: Hantaan virus (HTNV) causes hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Previous studies have identified interferon-induced transmembrane proteins (IFITMs) as an interferon-stimulated gene family. However, the role of IFITMs in HTNV infection is unclear. In this study, we observed that IFITM3 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) rs12252 C allele and CC genotype associated with the disease severity and HTNV load in the plasma of HFRS patients. In vitro experiments showed that the truncated protein produced by the rs12252 C allele exhibited an impaired anti-HTNV activity. We also proved that IFITM3 was able to inhibit HTNV infection in both HUVEC and A549 cells by overexpression and RNAi assays, likely via a mechanism of inhibiting virus entry demonstrated by binding and entry assay. Localization of IFITM3 in late endosomes was also observed. In addition, we demonstrated that the transcription of IFITM3 is negatively regulated by an lncRNA negative regulator of interferon response (NRIR). Taken together, we conclude that IFITM3, negatively regulated by NRIR, inhibits HTNV infection, and its SNP rs12252 correlates with the plasma HTNV load and the disease severity of patients with HFRS. Text: associates with the severity of disease, indicating the importance of viremia in the pathogenesis of HFRS (2) . Therefore, further studies of host factors limiting HTNV infection and influencing antiviral response as well as disease progression are clinically significant and timely. The human family of interferon-induced transmembrane proteins (IFITMs) was discovered 25 years ago to consist of interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs) (3) . This family includes five members, namely, IFITM1, 2, 3, 5, and 10, among which IFITM1, 2, and 3 possess antiviral activity (4) . Different IFITM proteins have different antiviral spectrum (5) . For example, IFITM3 has been shown to prevent influenza virus infection in vitro and in mice (6, 7) , and it also inhibits multiple viruses, including filoviruses, rhabdoviruses, flaviviruses, and even Ebola and Zika virus (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) . The antiviral mechanism of IFITM3 is thought to be the restriction of viral entry into cells (4, 12) . Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are single nucleotide variations in a genetic sequence that occur at an appreciable frequency in the population. Several SNPs has been identified in IFITM3, among which the rs12252 site with C allele results in a N-terminal truncation of IFITM3 protein, leading to impaired inhibition of influenza virus in vitro (13, 14) . Notably, the frequencies of rs12252 C allele and CC genotype correlate with disease severity in patients infected with influenza virus (13, 15) . HTNV has been shown to induce a type I interferon response (though in later time postinfection) (16, 17) . While overexpression of IFITM1, 2, and 3 in Vero E6 cells has been reported to inhibit HTNV infection (18) , however, the effect of IFITMs on HTNV infection in human cell lines and its role in HFRS still remain unknown. LncRNA comprises a group of non-coding RNAs longer than 200 nt that function as gene regulators. Some lncRNAs have been shown to play a role in innate immunity (19) . Among them, negative regulator of interferon response (NRIR) (lncRNA NRIR, also known as lncRNA-CMPK2) is a non-coding ISG that negatively regulates IFITM1 and Mx1 expression in HCV infection (20) . Notably, IFITM3 is largely homologous to IFITM1, but the role of NRIR in the regulation of IFITM3 in HTNV infection remains unclear. In the present study, we investigate the effect of IFTTM3 on the replication of HTNV and its role in the development of HFRS in humans. We provide primary evidence suggesting that IFITM3, regulated by NRIR, can inhibit HTNV infection and its SNP rs12252 correlates with the disease severity and viral load in patients with HFRS. This study expands our understanding of the antiviral activity of IFITM3 and enriches our knowledge of innate immune responses to HTNV infection. This study was conducted in accordance with the recommendations of the biomedical research guidelines involving human participants established by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China. The Institutional Ethics Committee of Tangdu Hospital approved this study. All subjects gave written informed consent in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki. Before inclusion, all participants were informed of the study objectives and signed the consent form before blood samples and medical records were obtained. Sixty-nine HFRS patients admitted into the Department of Infectious Diseases, Tangdu Hospital between October 2014 and March 2016 were enrolled in this study. All patients were Han Chinese. The diagnosis of HFRS was made based on typical symptoms and signs as well as positive IgM and IgG antibodies against HTNV in the serum assessed by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in our department. The classification of HFRS severity and the exclusion criteria were described as follows (21) : white blood cells (WBC), platelets (PLT), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (Scr), and heteromorphic lymphocytes that were tested by the Department of Clinical Laboratory (shown in Table 1 ). According to clinical symptoms and signs, such as fever, effusion, hemorrhage, edema, and renal function, the severity of HFRS can be classified as previously described (21): (1) mild patients were identified with mild renal failure without an obvious oliguric stage; (2) moderate patients were those with obvious symptoms of uremia, effusion (bulbar conjunctiva), hemorrhage (skin and mucous membrane), and renal failure with a typical oliguric stage; (3) severe patients had severe uremia, effusion (bulbar conjunctiva and either peritoneum or pleura), hemorrhage (skin and mucous membrane), and renal failure with oliguria (urine output, 50-500 ml/day) for ≤5 days or anuria (urine output, <50 ml/day) for ≤2 days; and (4) critical patients exhibited ≥1 of the following signs during the illness: refractory shock, visceral hemorrhage, heart failure, pulmonary edema, brain edema, severe secondary infection, and severe renal failure with oliguria (urine output, 50-500 ml/day) for >5 days, anuria (urine output, <50 ml/day) for >2 days, or a BUN level of >42.84 mmol/l. Due to the sample quantity required for SNP typing, the mild and moderate patients were assessed together in the mild group, and we combined severe and critical patients as severe group. The exclusion criteria for this study were patients with: (1) any other kidney disease, (2) diabetes mellitus, (3) autoimmune disease, (4) hematological disease, (5) cardiovascular disease, (6) viral hepatitis (types A, B, C, D, or E), or (7) any other liver disease. In addition, no patients received corticosteroids or other immunomodulatory drugs during the study period (21) . Genomic DNA was extracted from the peripheral blood of patients using the PureGene DNA Isolation kit (Gentra Systems, Minneapolis, MN, USA). The region encompassing the human IFITM3 rs12252 were amplified by PCR (forward primer, 5′-GGAAACTGTTGAGAAACCGAA-3′ and reverse primer, 5′-CATACGCACCTTCACGGAGT-3′). The PCR products were purified and sequenced using an Applied Biosystems 3730xl DNA Analyzer (Thermo Scientific, Waltham, MA, USA). The allele frequencies and genotypes of healthy Han Chinese and other groups were obtained from the 1,000 genomes project (http:// www.1000genomes.org). The HTNV load in plasma samples (collected during the acute phase) from 24 age-and sex-matched HFRS patients with different genotypes were measured using previously reported methods (2) . Briefly, viral RNA was extracted from the plasma of HFRS patients using Purelink Viral RNA/DNA Kits (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA). The SuperScript III Platinum One-Step Quantitative RT-PCR System kit (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA) was employed for the real-time RT-PCR assay. The primers and probe (provided by Sangon Biotech, Shanghai, China) were as follows: forward, 5′-TACAGAGGGAAATCAATGCC-3′, reverse, 5′-TGTTCAACTCATCTGGATCCTT-3′, and probe, 5′-(FAM) ATCCCTCACCTTCTGCCTGGCTATC (TAMRA)-3′. The synthetic S segment of the HTNV standard strain 76-118 RNA transcript was used as the quantitative calibrator. The external standard was the culture supernatant of Vero E6 cells infected with HTNV 76-118, which was quantified using synthetic quantitative calibrators. For each experiment, one aliquot of calibrated 76-118 standard was extracted in parallel with the clinical samples and serially 10-fold diluted with concentrations ranging from 10.56 to 2.56 log10 copies/ml. PCR was performed using an iQ5 Cycler (Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA, USA) with following conditions: 42°C for 15 min, 95°C for 2 min, and 50 cycles of 15 s at 95°C, 30 s at 53°C, and 30 s at 72°C. Fluorescence was read during the 72°C step of the final segment of every cycling program. HUVEC cells (ScienCell Research Laboratories, Carlsbad, CA, USA) were grown in ECM BulletKit (ScienCell Research Laboratories, Carlsbad, CA, USA) in a 5% CO2 incubator. A549 cells (ATCC Cat# CRM-CCL-185, RRID:CVCL_0023) were grown in our laboratory in DMEM with 10% FBS (Thermo Scientific, Waltham, MA, USA) in a 5% CO2 incubator. Cells were used within passage 10 after primary culture. HTNV strain 76-118 was cultured in Vero E6 cells (ATCC Cat# CRL-1586, RRID:CVCL_0574) in our laboratory and titrated using an immunofluorescence staining assay for HTNV nucleocapsid protein (NP) as previously described (22) . The TCID50 was 10 5 /ml, which was calculated using the Reed-Muench method. The recombinant human IFN-α2a was obtained from PBL Interferon Source (Piscataway, NJ, USA) and dissolved in the buffer provided by the manufacturer (composition not disclosed). HUVEC and A549 cells were infected by incubation with HTNV as indicated moi at 37°C for 60 mins. Subsequently, the virus solution was removed and fresh medium added to the cell culture. Cells were transfected with lentiviral vectors of c-myc-tagged IFITM1, IFITM2, IFITM3, and IFITM3 NΔ21 (purchased from GENECHEM, Shanghai, China) at a moi of 10. Puromycin (2 μg/ ml for HUVEC and 6 μg/ml for A549 cells) was used to create cell lines stably expressing IFITMs. Cells were transfected with control (scrambled) short interfering RNA (siRNA), IFITM1 siRNA, IFITM2 siRNA, or IFITM3 siRNA (10 nM) using Lipofectamine 3000 transfection reagent (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA). SiRNAs were purchased from Origene (Rockville, MD, USA), and the sequences were not disclosed. Total RNA was extracted using TRIzol reagent (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA), and cDNA was synthesized using the K1622 kit (Thermo Scientific, Waltham, MA, USA). Quantitative realtime PCR (qPCR) was performed using SYBR Premix Ex Taq II (Takara Biotechnology Co., Dalian, China) with a Bio-Rad iQ5 cycler (Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA, USA). β-actin was used as the reference gene. The primers (Sangon Biotech, Shanghai, China) were as follows: IFITM1 (forward, 5′-ACTCCGTGAAGTCTAGGGACA-3′ and reverse, 5′-TGTCACAGAGCCGAATACCAG-3′); IFITM2 (forward, 5′-ATCCCGGTAACCCGATCAC-3′ and reverse, 5′-CTTCCTGTCCCTAGACTTCAC-3′); IFITM3 (forward, 5′-GGTCTTCGCTGGACACCAT-3′ and reverse, 5′-TGTCCCTAGACTTCACGGAGTA-3′); IFITM3 pre-mRNA (forward, 5′-CATAGCACGCGGCTCT CAG-3′ and reverse, 5′-CGTCGCCAACCATCTTCCTG-3′); HTNV S segment (forward, 5′-GCCTGGAGACCATCTGA AAG-3′ and reverse, 5′-AGTATCGGGACGACAAAGGA-3′); β-actin (forward, 5′-GCTACGTCGCCCTGGACTTC-3′ and reverse, 5′-GTCATAGTCCGCCTAGAAGC-3′); NRIR (forward, 5′-ATGGTTTTCTGGTGCCTTG-3′ and reverse, 5′-GGAGGTTAGAGGTGTCTGCTG-3′); NRAV (forward, 5′-TCACTACTGCCCCAGGATCA-3′ and reverse, 5′-GGTGGTCACAGGACTCATGG-3′). For detection of miR-130a, cDNA was synthesized using the TaqMan microRNA reverse transcription kit (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA) with a specific primer in gene-specific TaqMan assay kit (000454, Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA). MiR-130a level was determined using the gene-specific TaqMan assay kit (000454, Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA). U6 (001973, Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA) was used as an endogenous control (23) . Because the pre-mRNA levels can represent the initial transcription rate (24) , the primers used to detect the pre-mRNA of IFITM3 were designed targeting the intron of IFITM3 as previously described (25) . IFITM3 has two exons and one intron. For qPCR of IFITM3 pre-mRNA, the forward primers were positioned in the intron, and the reverse primer was positioned at the beginning of the second exon. For qPCR of IFITM3 mRNA, the forward primers were positioned in the first exon, and the reverse primer was positioned at the beginning of the second exon (24) . Because the basal expression of IFITM3 is low in A549 cells, we detected IFITM3 mRNA and pre-mRNA in A549 cells following IFN-α2a treatment (20 IU/ml for 12 h) after the overexpression of NRIR. Cell lysates were prepared using Radio Immunoprecipitation Assay (RIPA) buffer (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA). Equal amounts of protein (20 μg protein/lane) were electrophoresed on a 10%-SDS-polyacrylamide gel and electrophoretically transferred to a polyvinylidene difluoride membrane (Millipore, Billerica, MA, USA). After blocking with 5% bovine serum albumin in Trisbuffered saline at room temperature for 1 h, the membranes were incubated with antibodies against IFITM1 (Proteintech Group Cat# 60074-1-Ig Lot# RRID:AB_2233405), IFITM2, IFITM3 (Proteintech Group Cat# 66081-1-Ig Lot# RRID:AB_11182821), and β-actin (Proteintech, Wuhan, Hubei, China) or HTNV NP (provided by the Department of Microbiology, The Fourth Military Medical University) overnight at 4°C. The membranes were then washed and incubated with HRP-conjugated IgG antibody (Cell Signaling Technology, Danvers, MA, USA) for 1 h at room temperature. The blots were developed using an enhanced chemiluminescence detection kit (Millipore, Billerica, MA, USA) and visualized using X-ray film. The blot densities were analyzed using the Quantity One software (Bio-Rad, Hercules, CA, USA). In addition, the RIPA buffer contains 50mM Tris (pH = 7.4), 150 mM NaCl, 1% Triton X-100, 1% sodium deoxycholate, 0.1% SDS. Protease inhibitor cocktail (Roche, Basel, Switzerland) was added before use. The cells were cultured on glass coverslips (Millipore, Billerica, MA, USA) until they were semi-confluence and then incubated with HTNV for 60 min (moi = 1). At the indicated times post-HTNV infection, the cells were fixed with 4% PFA, incubated with 0.3% Triton X-100 (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA), and blocked with 5% BSA for 1 h. Following incubation with a mouse monoclonal antibody against c-myc-tag (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO, USA, Sigma-Aldrich Cat# M5546), IFITM3, lysosome-associated membrane glycoprotein 1 (LAMP1, Cell Signaling Technology, Danvers, MA, USA), or HTNV NP at 37°C for 2 h, the cells were washed and incubated with anti-rabbit Ig conjugated to Alexa 555 and anti-mouse Ig conjugated to Alexa 488 (Abcam, Cambridge, MA, USA) secondary antibodies at room temperature for 1 h. The nuclei were counterstained with DAPI. An Olympus BX51 fluorescence microscope system and FV1000 confocal microscopy system (Olympus, Tokyo, Japan) were used to capture the images. hTnV binding and entry assay Cells transduced with IFITM3 or the empty vector were detached and washed extensively with cold PBS. The cells and HTNV were pre-chilled on ice for 30 min, mixed at a moi of 1 and incubated at 4°C for 1 h with rotation. Part of cells were washed extensively with ice-cold PBS and harvested for binding assay. Another part of cells were switched to 37°C for 2 h to allow HTNV entry. The HTNV that remained on the cell surface was removed by treatment with proteinase K (0.1 mg/ml, Thermo Scientific, Waltham, MA, USA). To achieve direct entry of HTNV into cells by virus-plasma membrane fusion as a positive control, cells were pre-chilled on ice for 10 min with 20 mM NH4Cl. Adsorption of HTNV (moi = 1) was performed at 4°C for 1 h. The cells were then washed, and fusion of the virus with the plasma membrane was triggered by incubation in low pH medium (20 mM sodium succinate, pH = 5.5) for 10 min at 37°C. Infection was followed by incubation for 2 h at 37°C in the presence of 20 mM NH4Cl (26) . qPCR analysis of the HTNV S segment was conducted to evaluate the influence of IFITMs on HTNV cell adhesion and HTNV entry. All data were expressed as the mean ± SEM. Statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism 5 (GraphPad Software, La Jolla, CA, USA). For association analysis of the rs12252 allele and genotype, Fisher's exact test was used. Independent samples t-tests were used for normally distributed data. Differences among groups were determined by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with repeated measures, followed by Bonferroni's post hoc test. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The iFiTM3 snP rs12252 c allele and cc genotype associated with severe hFrs Disease and a higher Plasma hTnV load To determine the clinical significance of IFITM3 SNP in HTNV infection, the relationship between rs12252 SNP and the severity of HFRS in 69 patients were examined. We sequenced 300 bp of the IFITM3 locus encompassing SNP rs12252 in all enrolled patients. Then, we stratified these patients into mild and severe, based on the clinical assessment as described in Section "Material and Methods. " We found a significantly higher frequency of the C allele among severe HFRS patients compared with the healthy Han Chinese in the 1,000 genomes sequence database (68.29 vs. 52.16%, P = 0.0076). The frequency of rs12252 C in severe patients was also higher than those mild patients (68.29 vs. 46.43%, P = 0.013, Figures 1A,B; Table 2 ). These data suggest that harboring rs12252 C allele increases the risk of suffering severe disease in HTNV-infected individuals, with an odds ratio (95% CI) of 2.124 (1.067-4.230). For genotypes, 43.90% of the severe patients carried the CC genotype, a significantly higher frequency than the control Han Chinese per 1,000 genomes sequence database (26.92% CC genotype, P = 0.03) as well as mildly infected patients (14.29%, P = 0.02, Figures 1A,B ; Table 2 ). However, mildly ill individuals did not exhibit a Fisher's exact test was used to test the association between rs12252 allele/genotype and HFRS severity. (c) The plasma HTNV load in CC genotype patients and CT/TT genotype patients, tested by qRCR analysis. Each symbol represents one individual patient. Independent samples t-test was used to test the difference of HTNV load between groups. *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01. significantly different genotype frequencies compared with the Han Chinese population. In addition, we also found that patients with CC genotype had higher plasma viral load in acute phase ( Figure 1C) . These results support the notion that the normal function of IFITM3 plays a critical role in the immune response to HTNV infection in vivo, which has a substantial influence on the clinical manifestation of HFRS. Previous studies reveal that the truncated IFITM3 protein produced by SNP rs12252 C allele (Figure 2A , the missing part stands for the truncated 21 amino acids from N-terminal of IFITM3, the intramembrane helix, and transmembrane helix was presented as boxes) leads to an impaired anti-influenza activity (14) . To test the functional significance of this polymorphism in HTNV infection, we transfected the majority T or minority C variant IFITM3 alleles that produce full-length or N-terminally truncated (NΔ21) proteins (Figure 2A ) with c-myc-tag to HUVEC and A549 cell using lentivirus vectors ( Figure 2B) . Then, we challenged the cells with HTNV at moi = 1 for 24 h and found that cells with the minority C variant were more susceptible to HTNV infection with higher expression of HTNV S segment ( Figure 2C ) and more positive of HTNV NP ( Figure S3 in Supplementary Material). Indeed, compared with the mock (empty vector)-infected control, the NΔ21 protein almost lost the ability to inhibit HTNV infection in both HUVEC and A549 cells (Figures 2C,D ; Figure S3 in Supplementary Material). To determine the role of HTNV infection in inducing IFITMs, qPCR as well as Western blot of IFITMs were conducted in HUVEC and A549 cells (Figures 3A,B ; Figure S1 in Supplementary Material). While we observed only a moderate upregulation of IFITM1, 2, and 3 mRNA and protein in HUVECs after more than 24 h postinfection; IFITM1, 2, and 3 mRNA, however, were only transiently upregulated in A549 cells and caused no significant change in protein level. We knocked down the IFITM1, 2, and 3 expression by transfection of their siRNAs individually. The effect of siRNAs on the expression of target IFITMs was tested by qPCR in HUVECs ( Figure S2 in Supplementary Material), and the effect of the best oligo against each IFITMs (IFITM1C, IFITM2A, IFITM3B) was tested by Western blot in A549 ( Figure 4A ) and HUVEC cells ( Figure 4B) . To assess the role of IFITMs in anti-HTNV effect of IFN-α2a, IFITM1, 2, and 3 were knocked down respectively by transfecting the above-tested oligoes for 12 h, followed by IFN-α2a treatment (20 IU/ml for another 12 h). The cells were then challenged with HTNV (moi = 1) for 24 h. The HTNV S segment and NP levels were significantly suppressed in both HUVEC and A549 cells in response to IFN-α2a treatment. Notably, knockdown of IFITM3 significantly restored the levels of HTNV S segment and NP in HUVEC and A549 cells. Knockdown of IFITM1 also partially restored the HTNV level in A549 cells (Figures 4C,D) . These results demonstrate that To assess the anti-HTNV effects of IFITMs, we tested the effect of overexpressed IFITM1, 2, and 3 on HTNV infection. c-myc-tagged IFITM1, 2, and 3 were expressed in both HUVEC and A549 cells (Figure 5A) , and the cells were then challenged with HTNV (moi = 1) for 24 h. The HTNV S segment and NP levels were suppressed by IFITM3 overexpression in HUVEC cells (Figures 5B-D) . They were also suppressed by expressing IFITM1 and IFITM3 in A549 cells (Figures 5B-D) . The inhibitory effect of IFITM3 was further confirmed by immunofluorescence analysis of HTNV NP ( Figure S3 in Supplementary Material). These results were in accordance with the above-described RNAi results. To determine whether IFITM3 inhibited HTNV binding or entry, HUVEC and A549 cells were incubated with HTNV (moi = 1) at 4°C for 1 h, unbound virus was washed away, and HTNV RNA collected at this time point represents HTNV bound to the cell surface. After virus binding, the cells were shifted to 37°C for 2 h to allow HTNV internalization, and HTNV RNA collected at this time point represents cell-internalized virus. As a positive control for inhibition of virus entry, we incubated a parallel group of cells with HTNV at pH = 5.5 as described in Section "Materials and Methods." Expression of IFITM3 did not affect HTNV binding ( Figure 6A ) but significantly suppressed HTNV entry in both HUVEC and A549 cells (Figure 6B ). iFiTM3 Was Partially localized to laMP1 + late endosomes in the host cells To elucidate the mechanism of IFITM3 function, we investigated the subcellular localization of IFTIM3 in the host cells. IFITM3 was found partially localized to LAMP1 + late endosomes in HUVECs analyzed by confocal microscopy (Figure 6C) . The co-localization of IFITM3 and LAMP1 + late endosomes had also been found in A549 cells (27) . Because the transfer into LAMP1 + late endosomes is a necessary step for HTNV entry (28) , this result provides an evidence for the anti-HTNV mechanism of IFITM3. LncRNA-and microRNA-mediated regulation of IFITM3 has been reported in several studies. We tested the change of previously reported regulators of IFITMs, such as NRAV, NRIR, and miR-130a after HTNV infection, among which NRIR was the only changed one (downregulated) after HTNV infection ( Figure 7A ; Figure S4 in Supplementary Material) in HUVEC. However, the expression of NRIR was unchanged in A549 cells. We overexpressed NRIR in HUVEC and A549 cells using the pcDNA3.1 vector ( Figure 7B) . Importantly, overexpression of NRIR significantly suppressed IFITM3 mRNA and pre-mRNA levels and facilitated HTNV infection in HUVEC and A549 cells (Figures 7C-E) . These data suggest that lncRNA NRIR is a negative regulator of IFITM3 transcription. Hantaan virus is an enveloped, negative-sense RNA virus from the genus Hantavirus within the family Bunyaviridae. It causes HFRS, which is an important threat to public health worldwide. It is also a potential weapon for biological terrorism. Reservoir animals, usually rodents, are asymptomatic during persistent infection. Unlike in rodents, Hantavirus infection leads to HFRS and Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in humans (21) . The major clinical characteristics of HFRS include fever, hemorrhage, hypotension, and renal injury (1, 21) , causing severe manifestations and death in some cases. The current standard of care for HFRS relies on symptomatic and supportive treatment. It has been confirmed that the plasma viral load is associated with the severity of HFRS, implicating the importance of viremia in the pathogenesis of HFRS (2). However, no direct antiviral medications are currently available for this illness. Interferon is the key molecule for the antiviral response and has been used as an antiviral medicine in many diseases. It has been reported that HTNV infection induces a late type I interferon response (16) . However, the set of ISGs required for IFN-mediated inhibition of HTNV has not yet been identified. Therefore, identification of ISGs that are effective against HTNV is an attractive strategy to identify novel therapeutic targets. In this study, we demonstrated a significantly high frequency of the rs12252 C allele and CC genotype among HFRS patients with severe illness compared with mildly infected individuals and the healthy Han Chinese. The rs12252 C allele and CC genotype are also found to be associated with higher plasma viral load in the early stage of HFRS. We also discovered that HTNV infection induces IFITMs, and the truncated IFITM3 produced by rs12252 C allele exhibits significantly decreased anti-HTNV activity. Interestingly, IFITM3 is found to restrict HTNV infection with a mechanism of cellular entry inhibition. Indeed, IFITM3 is localized to the late endosome in the host cells, which is a necessary structure for HTNV entry. In addition, we find that HTNV infection downregulated lncRNA NRIR 48 h post infection, which negatively regulates the transcription of IFITM3. Collectively, these results suggest that IFITM3, regulated by NRIR, inhibits HTNV infection, and its SNP rs12252 correlates with the disease severity and viral load in patients with HFRS. The antiviral properties of IFITM proteins were identified in 2009 in an RNAi screen for host factors that influence influenza virus replication (29) . IFITM1, 2, and 3 have been demonstrated to possess antiviral activity in several studies. Everitt et al. demonstrated that the severity of influenza virus infection was greatly increased in IFITM3-knockout mice compared with wild-type animals (15) . Different IFITM members have also been confirmed to inhibit the cellular entry of multiple virus families (including filoviruses, rhabdoviruses, and flaviviruses) (7, (9) (10) (11) 30) . For example, HIV-1 and HCV infection are inhibited by IFITM1 (31) (32) (33) (34) . It is commonly believed that IFITMs restrict viral infection at the stage of cellular entry (12) . Recent studies suggested that the cellular location of different IFITMs may influence the range of viruses restricted by each protein (5) . IFITM1 prevents HCV entry because it colocalizes with CD81 on the cell membrane, interrupting the endocytosis of HCV particles (32) , whereas IFITM3 confines influenza virus in acidified endosomal compartments (27) . Notably, retrovirus subvirus particles (ISVPs), which do not require endosomal acidification for entry, are not inhibited by IFITM3 expression, suggesting that IFITM3 may function at the stage of endosomal entry (35) . Studies utilizing cell-cell fusion assays have suggested that IFITM3 blocks the entry of enveloped virus by preventing the fusion of the viral membrane with a limiting membrane of the host cell, either the plasma membrane and/or the endosomal membranes. The results obtained using two-photon laser scanning and fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) suggest that IFITM proteins may reduce membrane fluidity and increase the spontaneous positive curvature in the outer leaflet of membranes (36) . In the present study, we demonstrated that IFN-α2a (20 U/ ml) significantly inhibited HTNV infection, siRNA-mediated depletion of IFITM3 alone significantly mitigated the antiviral effect of IFN-α2a in both HUVEC and A549 cells, whereas depletion of IFITM1 alone alleviated the antiviral effect of IFN-α2a in A549 cells. Overexpression of IFITM3 inhibited HTNV infection to HUVEC and A549 cells. IFITM1 overexpression was also effective in inhibition of HTNV in A549 cells. All these results suggest that IFITM3 is an important control factor under natural infection of HTNV. Our results also demonstrate that the effectiveness of IFITM3 is cell type-independent, which is in accordance with the results from similar viruses, such as RVFV (18) . Binding and entry assays, conducted by controlling the temperature and pH, showed that IFITM3 did not significantly influence HTNV binding but inhibited HTNV entry into HUVEC and A549 cells. Indeed, IFITM3 partially localizes to the late endosome of the host cells, which is a necessary site for the HTNV entry. However, we failed in tracking the transportation of HTNV in infected cells possibly due to the lack of fluorescence-labeled virus. In addition, IFITM1 also suppressed HTNV infection in A549 cells. The mechanism underlying anti-HTNV effect of IFITM1 remains undetermined and deserves to be further explored. According to a recent study on the three-dimensional structure of IFITM3, there is a C-terminal transmembrane α-helix and a two-N-terminal intramembrane α-helices (shown in Figure 2A as black boxes) in IFITM3 (14) . There are two splice variants that differ by the presence or absence of the first N-terminal 21 amino acids (deleted part, shown in Figure 2A as red dotted line). Several SNPs including 13 non-synonymous, 13 synonymous, 1 in-frame stop, and 1 splice site acceptoraltering have been reported in the translated IFITM3 sequence (15, 29) . Among them, the rare SNP rs12252C allele of IFITM3 truncates the protein as described above, leading to a reduced inhibition of influenza virus infection in A549 cells (15) . We demonstrated that truncated IFITM3 protein also loses the ability to inhibit HTNV infection in vitro. In Northern European patients hospitalized with seasonal influenza or pandemic influenza A virus, increased homozygosity of the minor C allele of SNP rs12252 in IFITM3 was observed (37) . In Chinese patients infected with influenza A (H1N1) virus, there was also an increased frequency of the C allele and CC genotype of SNP rs12252 (13) . In the present study, we observed an increased frequency of the C allele and CC genotype of SNP rs12252 in severely infected HFRS patients compared with healthy control and mildly affected patients. Patients carrying the CC genotype also had higher plasma viral loads compared with those with the CT/TT genotype. Given the impaired function of the IFITM3 protein produced by the C mutation, and the fact that enrichment of the rs12252 C allele in patients with severe disease and the higher viral load in patients with the CC genotype, this founding suggests that IFITM3 plays a pivotal role in the anti-HTNV response in vivo. We speculate that the much higher level of CC allele at healthy population of Han Chinese compared with Caucasians may place the Chinese at a higher risk for developing severe illness upon HTNV infection, which needs further investigation. LncRNAs are a group of non-coding RNAs longer than 200 nt that function as gene regulators, playing a role in regulating multiple cellular functions, including the innate immunity. For example, lncRNA NEAT1 is reported to be upregulated by influenza virus or PolyI:C stimulation, which promotes IL-8 expression (38) . lncRNA NRAV has been shown to negatively regulate the initial transcription of IFITM3 and Mx1 by affecting the histone modification of these genes (25) . lncRNA NRIR is a non-coding ISG, which has been reported to negatively regulate IFITM1 and Mx1 expression in HCV infection (20) . Mir-130a was also reported as a regulator of IFITM1 (23) . In this analysis, lncRNA NRIR was downregulated in HUVECs after HTNV infection for 48 h, overexpression of NRIR negatively regulates the initial transcription of IFITM3, evidenced by the decreased pre-mRNA as well as mRNA levels. NRIR overexpression also facilitated HTNV infection. These results indicate that the downregulation of NRIR after HTNV infection is possibly involved in the activation of innate immune responses against HTNV infection. We have also evaluated other potential regulators of IFITM3 before we choose NRIR for further study. Another lncRNA that can regulate IFITM3, i.e., NRAV (NR_038854), remained unchanged after HTNV infection ( Figures S4A,B in Supplementary Material). Additionally, miR-130a, which potentially regulate IFITM3, was also unaltered after HTNV infection ( Figures S4C,D in Supplementary Material). In conclusion, this study revealed a critical role for IFITM3 in HTNV infection. We demonstrated, for the first time to our knowledge, that IFITM3 is a newly identified anti-HTNV ISG; its expression is negatively regulated by NRIR; and its antiviral activity seems via a mechanism of inhibiting virus entry into the host cells. In addition, we discovered that the IFITM3 SNP rs12252 C allele and CC genotype correlates with the plasma HTNV load and the severity of HFRS; and the rs12252 C allele produces a truncated IFITM3 protein (NΔ21) that attenuates its anti-HTNV function. These results provide new insights into the role of IFITM3 in regulating innate immunity against HTNV infection, which is the basis for identifying new targets to develop novel agent against this worldwide infectious disease. aUThOr cOnTribUTiOns ZX-y, BP-y, YC-t, and MH-w performed the experiments; WP-z, BX-f, LY-f, ZY, and JZ-s designed the research; HC-x, YW, and WX analyzed the data; TK and ZC-m provided clinical data; ZX-y and BP-y wrote the paper.

What the animal vector reservoir for Hantaan virus?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

What is the strongest risk factor for childhood pneumonia?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

What is the status of the nine trials?

Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030674 SHA: 1d7f8850c5244fdc9b387038e7eeae9bcbbde6d2 Authors: Al-Qaness, Mohammed A. A.; Ewees, Ahmed A.; Fan, Hong; Abd El Aziz, Mohamed Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030674 License: cc-by Abstract: In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances. Text: A large family of viruses, called coronaviruses, are severe pathogens for human beings, which infect respiratory, hepatic, gastrointestinal, and neurologic diseases. They are distributed among humans, birds, livestock, mice, bats, and other wild animals [1] [2] [3] . The outbreaks of two previous coronaviruses, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in 2003 and 2012, respectively, have approved the transmission from animal to animal, and human to human [4] . In December 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) received notifications from China for many cases of respiratory illness that were linked to some people who had visited a seafood market in Wuhan [5] . Currently, Wuhan city suffers from the spreading of a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19 (previously, it was called 2019-nCoV). In [6] , the authors concluded that COVID-19 likely originated in bats, because it is more similar to two bat-derived coronavirus strains. However, the source of the COVID-19 is not confirmed yet, and it communities, Hong Kong and Toronto, were 1.2 and 1.32, respectively. Ong et al. [20] proposed a monitoring and forecasting model for influenza A (H1N1-2009). Furthermore, Nah et al. [21] proposed a probability-based model to predict the spread of the MERS. The Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) [22] is widely applied in time series prediction and forecasting problems, and it showed good performance in many existing applications. It offers flexibility in determining nonlinearity in the time series data, as well as combining the properties of both artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic systems. It has been applied in various forecasting applications, for example, in [23] , a stock price forecasting model was proposed using ANFIS and empirical mode decomposition. Chen et al. [24] proposed a TAIEX time series forecasting model based on a hybrid of ANFIS and ordered weighted averaging (OWA). In [25] , another time series forecasting method was presented for electricity prices based on ANFIS. Svalina et al. [26] proposed an ANFIS based forecasting model for close price indices for a stock market for five days. Ekici and Aksoy [27] presented an ANFIS based building energy consumption forecasting model. More so, ANFIS is also applied to forecast electricity loads [28] . Kumar et al. [29] proposed an ANFIS based model to forecast return products. Ho and Tsai [30] applied ANFIS to forecast product development performance. However, estimating ANFIS parameters is a challenge that needs to be improved. Therefore, in previous studies, some individual swarm intelligence (SI) methods have been applied to the ANFIS parameters to enhance time series forecasting because these parameters have a significant effect on the performance of ANFIS. The SI methods include the particle swarm optimization (PSO) [31, 32] , social-spider optimization [33] , sine-cosine algorithm (SCA) [34] , and multi-verse optimizer (MVO) [35] . For example, in [34] SCA algorithm was applied to improve the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in three countries, namely, Canada, Germany, and Japan. In the same context, in [35] , The MVO algorithm was used to enhance the ANFIS model to forecast oil consumption in two countries. In addition, in [36] the PSO was used with ANFIS to predict biochar yield. However, individual SI algorithms may stock at local optima. Therefore, one solution is to apply hybrid SI algorithms to avoid this problem. In [37] , a hybrid of two SI algorithms, namely GA and SSA, was presented to improve the ANFIS model. The proposed new model called GA-SSA-ANFIS was applied to forecast crude oil prices for long-term time series data. However, the previously mentioned methods suffer from some limitations that can affect the performance of the forecasting output such as slow convergence and the ability to balance between exploration and exploitation phases can influence the quality of the final output. This motivated us to propose an alternative forecasting method dependent on the hybridization concept. This concept avoids the limitations of traditional SI techniques by combining the strengths of different techniques, and this produces new SI techniques that are better than traditional ones. In the current study, we propose an improved ANFIS model based on a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). The FPA is an optimization algorithm proposed by Yang [38] , which was inspired by the flow pollination process of the flowering plants. The FPA was employed in various optimization applications, for example to estimate solar PV parameter [39, 40] , solving sudoku puzzles [41] , feature selection [42] , antenna design [43] , and other applications [44] [45] [46] [47] . Moreover, SSA is also an optimization algorithm proposed by Mirjalili et al. [48] inspired by the behavior of salp chains. In recent years, the SSA was utilized to solve different optimization problems, such as feature selection [49, 50] , data classification [51] , image segmentation [52] , and others [53, 54] . The proposed method called FPASSA is a hybrid of FPA and SSA, in which the SSA is applied as a local search method for FPA. The proposed FPASSA starts by receiving the historical COVID-19 dataset. Then a set of solutions is generated where each of them represents the value for the parameters of the ANFIS model. Then the quality of each solution is calculated using the fitness value, and the solution that has the best fitness value is chosen to represent the best solution. Then the probability of each solution is computed. Then the current solution will be updated, either using global or local strategy in FPA. However, in the case of local strategy, the operators of SSA or FPA will be used according to the probability of the fitness value for each solution. The process of updating the solutions is repeated until reaching the stop condition, and the best parameter configurations are used to forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The main contribution points of the current study are as follows: 1. We propose an efficient forecasting model to forecast the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China for the upcoming ten days based on previously confirmed cases. An improved ANFIS model is proposed using a modified FPA algorithm, using SSA. We compare the proposed model with the original ANFIS and existing modified ANFIS models, such as PSO, GA, ABC, and FPA. The rest of this study is organized as follows. The preliminaries of ANFIS, FPA, and SSA are described in Section 2. Section 3 presents the proposed FPASSA, and Section 4 presents the experimental setup and results. We conclude this study in Section 5. The principles of the ANFIS are given in this section. The ANFIS model links the fuzzy logic and neural networks [22] . It generates a mapping between the input and output by applying IF-THEN rules (it is also called Takagi-Sugeno inference model). Figure 1 illustrates the ANFIS model where, y and x define the inputs to Layer 1 whereas, O 1i is its output of node i that is computed as follows: where µ denotes the generalized Gaussian membership functions. A i and B i define the membership values of µ. α i and ρ i denote the premise parameters set. The output of Layer 2 (it is also known as the firing strength of a rule) is calculated as follows: Meanwhile, the output of Layer 3 (it is also known as the normalized firing strength) is calculated as follows: The output of Layer 4 (it is also known as an adaptive node) is calculated as follows: where r i , q i , and p i define the consequent parameters of the node i. Layer 5 contains only one node; its output is computed as: Flower Pollination Algorithm is an optimization method proposed by Yang [38] . It simulates the transfer of flowers' pollen by pollinators in nature. This algorithm utilizes the two types of pollination (i.e., self-pollination and cross-pollination). In self-pollination, the pollination occurs with no pollinators, whereas, in cross-pollination, the pollens are moved between different plants. In more detail, the self-pollination can be represented as a local pollination while the cross-pollination can be called global pollination. The global pollination or cross-pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i defines the pollen i at iteration t. L denotes the pollination's strength or the step size. F * is the target position or best solution. In some cases, insects can fly with different distance steps for a long space; therefore, Levy fly distribution is applied to simulate this movement. where λ = 1.5. Γ(λ) denotes the gamma function. This distribution is available for large steps s > 0. The self-pollination or local pollination can be mathematically formed as follows: where x t i and x k i represent pollens from different flower in the same plant. in the range [0,1] The process of pollination can be done using cross-pollination or self-pollination. Therefore, the random variable p, in the range [0, 1], is used to determine this process. SSA is an optimization technique introduced by [48] . It simulates the Salps' behavior in nature. This behavior is called salp chain. The mathematical model of SSA begins by splinting its population into a leader group and followers group. The leader is the front salp, whereas, the followers are the other salps. The search space is determined in n-dimensions with n variables. Equation (10) works to update the salps' positions. where x 1 j denotes the leader's position in j-th dimension. F j is the target position. ub j and lb j represent the max and min bounds, respectively. c 2 and c 3 denote random numbers in [0, 1]. c 1 is an important parameter; it balances between the exploration and exploitation phases. It is computed as follows: where the current loop number is t and the max loop' number is t max . Then, the followers' position is updated as follows: where x i j defines the i-th position of the follower in j-th dimension. i > 1. This section explains the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS method. It is a time series method for forecasting the confirmed cases of the COVID-19, as given in Figure 2 . The FPASSA-ANFIS utilizes the improved FPA to train the ANFIS model by optimizing its parameters. The FPASSA-ANFIS contains five layers as the classic ANFIS model. Layer 1 contains the input variables (the historical COVID-19 confirmed cases). Whereas Layer 5 produces the forecasted values. In the learning phase, the FPASSA is used to select the best weights between Layer 4 and Layer 5. The FPASSA-ANFIS starts by formatting the input data in a time series form. In our case, the autocorrelation function (ACF) was considered. ACF is one of the methods applied to find patterns in the data; it presents information about the correlation between points separated by various time lags. Therefore, in this paper, the variables with ACF greater than 0.2 are considered i.e., 5-lags. Besides, the training data contains 75% of the dataset, whereas the testing data contains 25% of them. The number of clusters is defined by the fuzzy c-mean (FCM) method to construct the ANFIS model. The parameters of the ANFIS model are prepared by the FPASSA algorithm. In the training phase, the calculation error (as in Equation (13)) between the real data and the predicted data is used to evaluate the parameters' quality. where T is the real data, and P is the predicted data. N s is the sample length. The smaller values of the objective function indicate good ANFIS's parameter. On the other hand, the updating phase of the followers' positions in the SSA algorithm is applied to improve the global pollination phase in the FPA algorithm. In this improvement, there is a random variable (r) used to switch between both phases. If r > 0.5, then the operators of the SSA is used; otherwise, the operators of the FPA are used. In general, The FPASSA starts by constructing the population (X); afterward, the objective function is calculated for each solution. The solution with the lowest error value is saved to the next iteration. This sequence is repeated until meeting the stop condition, which in this paper, is the maximum number of iterations. Then the best solution is passed to train the parameters of the ANFIS model. After finishing the training phase, the testing phase is started with the best solution to compute the final output. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing the real data with the predicted data using the performance measures. Finally, the FPASSA produces a foretasted value for confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China in the next day. The steps of the proposed FPASSA are presented in Algorithm 1. Input: Historical COVID-19 dataset, size of population N, total number of iterations t max . Divide the data into training and testing sets. Using Fuzzy c-mean method to determine the number of membership functions. Constructing the ANFIS network. Set the initial value for N solutions (X). Return the best solution that represents the best configuration for ANFIS. Apply the testing set to the best ANFIS model. Forecasting the COVID-19 for the next ten days. This section presents the description of the used dataset, the performance measures, the parameter setting for all methods, the experiment results, and discussions. The main dataset of this study is COVID-19 dataset. It was collected from the WHO website (https: //www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/). It contains the daily confirmed cases in China from 21 January 2020 to 18 February 2020, as shown in Table 1 . We used 75% from the dataset to train the model while the rest is used to test it. Moreover, we evaluated the performance of the proposed method using two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases. The first one is called DS1; it was collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/). It starts from week number 40 in 2015 and continues until week number 6 in 2020. Whereas, the second one is called DS2. It was collected from the WHO website (https://www.who.int/influenza). It contains the data of weekly influenza confirmed cases in China from week number 1 in 2016 to week number 8 in 2020. The quality of the proposed method is evaluated using a set of performance metrics as follows: • Root Mean Square Error (RMSE): where Yp and Y are the predicted and original values, respectively. • Mean Absolute Error (MAE): • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): • Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE): N s represents the sample size of the data. • Coefficient of Determination (R 2 ): where Y represents the average of Y. The lowest value of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and RMSRE refers to the best method. The higher value of R 2 indicates better correlation for the method. This paper aims to assess the ability of the FPASSA to forecast the COVID-19 by comparing its performance with other methods, namely the ANFIS and the trained ANFIS models using PSO, GA, ABC, FPA, and FPASSA. The parameters' setting for these models is listed in Table 2 . The common parameters, such as population size, are set to 25 and 100 iterations are applied. Besides, each algorithm is performed for 30 independent runs to fair comparisons. The selected parameters are chosen because they produced good behavior in previous experiments, such as [34, 35, 55, 56] . Table 2 . Parameters' setting. Parameters Setting Max. epochs = 100, Error goal = 0, Initial step = 0.01, Decrease rate = 0.9, Increase rate = 1. In this section, the performance of the proposed FPASSA to predict the DS1 and DS2 is discussed. It can be concluded from Table 3 that the performance of FPASSA outperformed the compared methods in all measures, whereas the FPA is ranked second. The results of DS2 indicate that the FPASSA is ranked first in terms of RMSE, MAPE, R 2 , and the CPU time. Whereas, the PSO is ranked second, followed by the FPA, GA, then ABC. These results denote that the proposed method can optimize the parameters of the ANFIS model effectively and produce good results in terms of the performance measures. Comparison results between the proposed FPASSA and other models to forecast COVID-19 are given in Table 4 . It can be concluded that the FPASSA outperforms other models. For example, by analyzing the results of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and CPU time(s) it can be observed that the FPASSA achieves the smallest value among the comparison algorithms, and this indicates the high quality of the FPASSA. Meanwhile, the FPA allocates the second rank, which provides better results than the rest of the methods. Moreover, the value of R 2 refers to the high correlation between the prediction obtained by the proposed FPASSA method and the original COVID-19, which has nearly 0.97. This can also be noticed from Figure 3 , which depicts the training of the algorithms using the historical data of the COVID-19 as well as their forecasting values for ten days. Table 5 depicts the forecasting value for the confirmed cases of the COVID-19 in China from 19/2/2020 to 28/2/2020. From these results, it can be noticed that the outbreak will reach its highest level on the day 28/2/2020. The average percentage of the increase over the forecasted period is 10%, the highest percentage is 12% on 28/2/2020, and the lowest percentage is 8.7% on 19/2/2020. From the previous results, it can be concluded that the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS has a high ability to forecast the COVID-19 dataset. These results avoid the limitations of traditional ANFIS because of the combination with the modified FPA method. Moreover, the operators of SSA are combined with the local strategy of FPA to enhance their exploitation ability. However, the time computational of the proposed FPASSA method still requires more improvements. This paper proposed a modified version for the flower pollination algorithm (FPA) using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). This modified version, called FPASSA, is applied to improve the performance of the ANFIS through determining the optimal value for its parameters. The developed FPASSA-ANFIS model is applied as a forecasting technique for a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, that was discovered in Wuhan, China at the end of last year and January of the current year. The proposed FPASSA-ANFIS model has a high ability to predict the number of confirmed cases within ten days. Besides, FPASSA-ANFIS outperforms other forecasting models in terms of RMSE, MAE, MAPE, RMSRE, and R 2 . Furthermore, two datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in the USA and China were used to evaluate the proposed method, and the evaluation outcomes showed its good performance. According to the promising results obtained by the proposed FPASSA-ANFIS, it can be applied in different forecasting applications.

What do the authors propose?

Role of S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 for the Interaction with FKBP11 in Osteoblast Cells https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3776769/ Tsukamoto, Takashi; Li, Xianglan; Morita, Hiromi; Minowa, Takashi; Aizawa, Tomoyasu; Hanagata, Nobutaka; Demura, Makoto 2013-09-18 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0075831 License:cc-by Abstract: Recently, one of the interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) family proteins, IFITM3, has become an important target for the activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. In this protein, a post-translational modification by fatty acids covalently attached to cysteine, termed S-palmitoylation, plays a crucial role for the antiviral activity. IFITM3 possesses three cysteine residues for the S-palmitoylation in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain and in the cytoplasmic (CP) loop. Because these cysteines are well conserved in the mammalian IFITM family proteins, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is significant for their functions. IFITM5 is another IFITM family protein and interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form a higher-order complex in osteoblast cells, which induces the expression of immunologically relevant genes. In this study, we investigated the role played by S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in its interaction with FKBP11 in the cells, because this interaction is a key process for the gene expression. Our investigations using an established reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA), and an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP), revealed that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in addition to IFITM3. Specifically, we found that cysteine residues in the TM1 domain and in the CP loop were S-palmitoylated in IFITM5. Then, we revealed by immunoprecipitation and western blot analyses that the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was inhibited in the presence of 2BP. The mutant lacking the S-palmitoylation site in the TM1 domain lost the interaction with FKBP11. These results indicate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the interaction with FKBP11. Finally, we investigated bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP, because IFITM5 was originally identified as a bone formation factor. The experiment resulted in a morphological aberration of the bone nodule. This also indicated that the S-palmitoylation contributes to bone formation. Text: The interferon-induced transmembrane (IFITM) protein family (also known as the Fragilis family in mice) is a part of the dispanin family [1] and is composed of double-transmembrane α-helices connected by a cytoplasmic (CP) loop and extracellular (EC) amino-and carboxyl-terminal polypeptide sequences (Figure 1-A) . The IFITM proteins are evolutionarily conserved in vertebrates [2] . Recent genomic research has revealed that there are 5 IFITM members in humans (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5 and 10) and 7 members in mice (IFITM1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 10). These proteins play roles in diverse biological processes, such as germ cell maturation during gastrulation (IFITM1-3) [3] [4] [5] , cell-to-cell adhesion (IFITM1) [6] [7] [8] , antiviral activity (IFITM1-3) [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] , and bone formation (IFITM5) [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] , although the detailed functions of IFITM6, 7, and 10 are unknown at present. In particular, IFITM3 has been a target of intensive studies on its activity against influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and internalization [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] . In 2010, Dr. Yount and co-workers reported that the antiviral activity of IFITM3 is dependent on S-palmitoylation on the protein [10] . The S-palmitoylation [23] is a post-translational modification on proteins by C 16 saturated-fatty acids (palmitic acids) covalently attached to certain cysteine residues via a thioester linkage (Figure 1-B) . The modification is reversibly catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, and confers unique properties to the protein, such as membrane binding and targeting, immunoreactivity, Amino-acid sequence alignment of IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 derived from mice. The conserved residues are highlighted in black. The three conserved cysteines are highlighted in red and numbered based on the sequence of IFITM5 (top) and IFITM3 (bottom). The residues unique in IFITM5 are highlighted in gray. The first and the second transmembrane domains, the extracellular sequences, and the cytoplasmic loop are indicated by arrows and denoted as TM1 and TM2, EC, and the CP loop, respectively. The TM domains were predicted by SOSUI. The aspartates at the C-terminal region in IFITM5 are shown in blue. B) The schematic illustration of the protein S-palmitoylation. The C 16 -palmitic acid is attached to cysteine via a thioester linkage. The palmitoylation and depalmitoylation are catalyzed by protein acyltransferases and acylprotein thioesterases, respectively. In this study, hydroxylamine, NH 2 OH, was used to reduce the thioester linkage. C) The amino acid sequence identity (similarity) among IFITM5, IFITM1, IFITM2, and IFITM3 is summarized. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g001 and protein-protein interaction. The authors revealed that IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated on three membrane proximal cysteines, Cys71 and Cys72 in the first transmembrane (TM1) domain, and Cys105 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) [10] . In addition, IFITM3 lacking the S-palmitoylation is not clustered in the cell membrane and significantly diminishes the antiviral activity. Moreover, the cysteines in IFITM2, Cys70, Cys71, and Cys104 are also palmitoylated in the same manner, which affects the intracellular localization [24] . A resent study has revealed that murine IFITM1 has four cysteine residues (Cys49, Cys50, Cys83, and Cys103) for the S-palmitoylation, which is required for the antiviral activity and the protein stability [25] . The other IFITM family members also possess these cysteines (Figure 1-A) , and thus the role of the Spalmitoylation on the cysteines should be significant for the functions of IFITM proteins. Here, we focused on IFITM5, which is also known as bonerestricted IFITM-like (BRIL) protein [18] . Among the IFITM family proteins, IFITM5 is unique. (i) Expression of IFITM5: Unlike the other IFITM family proteins, the expression of IFITM5 is not induced by interferons because the region upstream of the ifitm5 gene lacks the interferon regulatory elements [26] . Furthermore, the expression of IFITM5 is mostly restricted to osteoblast cells [18, 19, 27] , while the other IFITM proteins are expressed ubiquitously (ii). Amino-acid sequence similarity: The amino acid sequence of IFITM5 is relatively dissimilar to IFITM1-3 proteins (~ 65% similarity), while IFITM1-3 proteins share ~ 85% similarity with each other (Figure 1 -C). In addition, IFITM5 has an aspartate-rich domain in the C-terminal region, which could be involved in calcium binding (Figure 1 -A) [26] . (iii) Role of IFITM5 in bone formation: The expression of IFITM5 is associated with mineralization during the bone formation process in osteoblast cells [18] [19] [20] [21] . Previous studies have confirmed the expression of IFITM5 in bone tissues in mice, rats, humans and tammar wallabies [2] . The ifitm5-gene knockout mice have smaller bones [19] . Moreover, the knockdown of the ifitm5 gene by small hairpin RNA induces a decrease in bone nodule formation, whereas overexpression of the gene in UMR106 cells has been shown to increase calcium uptake and bone nodule formation [18] . (iv) Role of IFITM5 for immune activity: Recent studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with the FK506-binding protein 11 (FKBP11) to form IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-the prostaglandin F2 receptor negative regulator (FPRP) complex [28] . When the complex is formed, the expressions of 5 interferon-induced genes are induced, including bone marrow stromal cell antigen 2 (Bst2), interferon inducible protein 1 (Irgm), interferoninduced protein with tetratricopeptide repeats 3 (Ifit3), b(2)microglobulin (B2m), and MHC class I antigen gene. Consequently, these results indicate that IFITM5 is involved not only in the bone formation but also in the immune system activity. In this study, we investigated the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11 in mouse osteoblast cells. Cells transfected by a plasmid DNA encoding mouse IFITM5 were grown in the presence of an established chemical reporter, 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA) [29, 30] , or an inhibitor for the S-palmitoylation, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP) [31] . The biochemical assays using these compounds revealed that the wild-type IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated. To identify the Spalmitoylation site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/C53A, and -C52A/53A/86A (Cys-less). The chemical reporter assay suggested that at least two out of three cysteines in IFITM5 are S-palmitoylated. The interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 was examined by immunoprecipitation assay, resulting in the loss of the interaction in the presence of 2BP. The same result was obtained in the two mutants, C52A/C53A and Cys-less. These results suggested that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of IFITM5 is necessary for the interaction with FKBP11. On the other hand, Cys86 in the CP loop of IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated but not involved in the interaction. Because this interaction is important for the immunologically relevant gene expression, it was indicated that the role of the S-palmitoylation is to promote the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and to regulate the immune activity in the osteoblast cells. The possible interaction mechanism and the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the bone nodule formation will be discussed. For mammalian cell expression, plasmid vectors of wild-type IFITM5 (IFITM5-WT) and FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into a pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector (Takara Bio, Shiga, Japan). The details of the recombinant DNA constructs were the same as described previously [19] . The genes of IFITM5 mutants (IFITM5-C86A, -C52A/53A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less)) were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit (Stratagene, La Jolla, CA). The plasmid vectors of FLAG-fused IFITM5-WT, -C52A/53A, and Cys-less were constructed by inserting the cloned genes into the pBApo-CMV Neo expression vector. For E. coli cell expression, the plasmid vector of IFITM5-WT was constructed by inserting the cloned gene into a pET22b (Novagen, Madison, WI) expression vector. The forward primer 5'-GGAATTCCATATGGACACTTCATATCCCCGTG-3' and the reverse primer 5'-CCGCTCGAGGTTATAGTCCTCCTCATCAAACTTGG-3' were used to amplify the gene encoding the entire IFITM5 from the plasmid vector for mammalian cell expression described above. The underlined letters denote an NdeI and an XhoI cleavage site, respectively. The plasmids of IFITM5 mutants were prepared using a QuikChange site-directed mutagenesis kit. The sense and anti-sense primers used were 5'-GGCAGTATGGCTCCAAAGCCAAGGCGTACAACATCCTGG CTGC-3' and 5'-GCAGCCAGGATGTTGTACGCCTTGGCTTTGGAGCCATACT GCC-3' for IFITM5-C86A; and 5'-GCACGATGTACCTGAATCTGGCGGCGCTTGGATTCCTGG CGC-3' and 5'-GCGCCAGGAATCCAAGCGCCGCCAGATTCAGGTACATCG TGC-3' for IFITM5-C52A/C53A, respectively (Sigma-Aldrich, St. Louis, MO). Osteoblast-like MC3T3 cells were provided by the RIKEN, Cell Bank (RCB 1126). The procedures for cell culture, transfection, and protein expression were the same as reported previously. When necessary, 2-bromopalmitic acid (2BP; Wako, Osaka, Japan) and 17-octadecynoic acid (17-ODYA; Sigma-Aldrich) were dissolved in 99.5% dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO; Wako) and added to differentiation medium at concentrations of 100 μM and 50 μM in less than 0.1% DMSO, respectively [30, 31] . Wild-type and mutant IFITM5 proteins were also produced using an E. coli recombinant expression system. E. coli BL21(DE3) cells transformed by the expression plasmid were grown at 37°C in LB medium containing 50 μg/mL ampicillin. After four-hour induction by 1 mM isopropyl β-Dthiogalactopyranoside (IPTG), cells were harvested by centrifugation (6,400 × g for 10 min at 4°C). The cells were suspended in 50 mM Tris-HCl buffer (pH 8) and disrupted by a French press (Ohtake, Tokyo, Japan) (100 MPa × 4 times). The crude membrane fraction was collected by ultracentrifugation (178,000 × g for 90 min at 4°C). The collected fraction was solubilized with 1.5% n-dodecyl-β-Dmaltopyranoside (DDM) (Dojindo Lab, Kumamoto, Japan) in 50 mM Tris-HCl, pH 8, containing 0.3 M NaCl and 5 mM imidazole. After the ultracentrifugation, the supernatant was incubated with Ni 2+ -NTA agarose resin (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The resin was applied to a chromatography column and washed with 50 mM imidazole containing 50 mM Tris-HCl (pH 8), 0.3 M NaCl and 0.1% DDM. The DDM-solubilized IFITM5 was collected by elution with the same buffer containing 0.3 M imidazole. The sample media were replaced by the appropriate buffer solution by two passages over a PD-10 column (GE Healthcare UK, Ltd., Amersham Place, England). The experimental details are described in previous reports [19, 28] . Briefly, total proteins were extracted from the osteoblast cells which co-expressed IFITM5 and FKBP11-FLAG using a total protein extraction kit (BioChain Institute Inc., Newark, CA). Then, the cell lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel (Sigma-Aldrich) at 4°C for 2 h. To recover FKBP11-FLAG, 500 ng/μL 3 × FLAG peptide (Sigma-Aldrich) dissolved in Tris-buffered saline was added to the collected gel at 4°C for 1 h. The recovered proteins and the cell lysate containing total proteins were analyzed by SDS-PAGE (15% ePAGEL; ATTO, Tokyo, Japan) and western blot. The anti-IFITM5 polyclonal antibody, which was prepared from the amino-terminal peptide sequence (TSYPREDPRAPSSRC), and anti-FLAG monoclonal antibody (Sigma-Aldrich) were used as primary antibodies. The HRP-conjugated goat anti-rabbit IgG (H+L) (Zymed Laboratories, San Francisco, CA) and goat anti-mouse IgG (H+L) (Sigma-Aldrich) antibodies were used as secondary antibodies for the anti-IFITM5 and anti-FLAG primary antibodies, respectively. The proteins were detected by chemiluminescent reaction (MercK-Millipore, Billerica, MA). The cell lysate extracted from the osteoblast cells metabolically labeled by 17-ODYA was incubated with anti-FLAG M2 agarose gel to obtain purified FLAG-fused IFITM5 proteins. The 17-ODYA-labeled proteins were chemically labeled with azide-PEG 3 -5(6)-carboxytetramethylrhodamine (TAMRA-azide; Click Chemistry Tools, Scottsdale, AZ) with reference to previous studies [10, 29, 30, 32] and the manufacturer's guide. The proteins separated by SDS-PAGE were visualized using a 532-nm laser for excitation and the fluorescence by TAMRA (565 nm) was detected using a 575nm long-path filter (Typhoon FLA 9000; GE Healthcare). The subcultured osteoblast MC3T3 cells were seeded at a density of 5,000 cells/cm 2 in 40 mm dishes and cultured in α-Modified Eagle's Medium (α-MEM; Sigma-Aldrich) containing 10% (v/v) fetal bovine serum (FBS; Nichirei Biosciences Inc., Tokyo, Japan). On the next day, this was replaced with differentiation medium, containing 2 mM glycerophosphate and 50 μg/mL sodium ascorbate at final concentrations, to induce osteoblast differentiation. When necessary, 100 μM 2BP in less than 0.1% DMSO, or 0.1% DMSO alone was added to the differentiation medium at final concentrations. All cultures were incubated at 37°C in a humidified atmosphere containing 5% CO 2 for 27 days. Mineralized nodules were stained with Alizarin Red S (Sigma-Aldrich). The standard staining procedure was used. The mineralized nodules were checked every three days. To identify the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5, the osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid DNA encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the absence and presence of 2BP, which inhibits the S-palmitoylation (Figure 2-A) [31] . Then, the cell lysate containing total protein was extracted for use in the SDS-PAGE and western blot analyses. For purposes of comparison, E. coli cells were also cultured in the absence of 2BP and the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 2 -B shows the results of the western blot assay for IFITM5-WT expressed in the osteoblast and the E. coli cells. In the osteoblast cells, IFITM5-WT exhibited a single band near the 17.4 kDa molecular-mass marker (see lane 1) in the absence of 2BP. However, in the presence of 2BP (see lane 4), the band appeared at a lower position than that in the absence of 2BP (lane 1). These results suggested that IFITM5-WT has high and low molecular-mass forms in the absence and presence of 2BP, respectively. The S-palmitoylation is a reversible reaction, and therefore is depalmitoylated by a strong reductant such as hydroxylamine [10] . Following hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 2), the band appeared at the same position as in the presence of 2BP (lane 4). In prokaryote E. coli cells, the post-translational modification S-Palmitoylation on IFITM5 PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org does not occur. Hence, the band was also observed at the same lower position (see lane 3). In the case of IFITM3, the palmitoylation was also reported to induce a change in mobility on electrophoresis, just as in our present results [10] . For direct observation of the S-palmitoylation, an established chemical reporter, 17-ODYA (Figure 2-C) , was used. The osteoblast cells harboring the plasmid encoding IFITM5-WT were cultured in the presence of 17-ODYA to label the protein metabolically. Following the extraction and the purification of the cell lysate, the labeled IFITM5-WT was ligated with TAMRA-azide according to the Cu(I)-catalyzed [3+2] azidealkyne cycloaddition method [10, 29, 30, 32 ]. An in-gel fluorescence image of the 17-ODYA-TAMRA-labeled IFITM5-WT (see lane 2 in Figure 2 -D) showed that IFITM5 was Spalmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. The FLAG-tag attached to IFITM5 has no influence on the modification and chemical labeling (lanes 1 and 5). In addition, after the hydroxylamine treatment (see lane 6), the fluorescence became weak because of the dissociation of 17-ODYA from IFITM5, which was the same mechanism as the dissociation of the palmitic acid from IFITM5 by reduction as described above (lane 2 of Figure 2-B) . Therefore, we concluded that the IFITM5 expressed in the native osteoblast cells is S-palmitoylated. In addition, the bands corresponding to the high and the low molecular-mass forms shown in western blot analysis were tentatively assigned to the S-palmitoylated and the depalmitoylated forms, respectively. As described above in the Introduction, cysteine residues are the substrate for S-palmitoylation. IFITM5 possesses three cysteines, Cys52 and Cys53 in the TM1 domain, and Cys86 in the CP loop (Figure 1-A) . All of these cysteines are highly conserved among the mammalian IFITM family proteins (Figure 3-A) . To identify the modification site in IFITM5, we prepared cysteine-substituted mutants, IFITM5-C52A/C53A, -C86A, and -C52A/C53A/C86A (Cys-less). The osteoblast cells harboring each plasmid were cultured in the absence of 2BP, and then the cell lysate was extracted. Figure 3 -B shows the results of the western blot detecting the expression of all the mutants in the osteoblast cells. In the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see lanes 2 and 4), the low molecular-mass form was detected. This result indicates that either Cys52 or Cys53 is involved in the S-palmitoylation. In addition, as shown in Figure 2 -D, strong and weak fluorescence were detected in the C52A/ C53A mutant in the absence and presence of hydroxylamine (lanes 3 and 7) , respectively, but not in the Cys-less mutant (lanes 4 and 8) . These results suggested that the rest of the cysteine in the C52A/C53A mutant, Cys86, is S-palmitoylated and the Cys-less mutant completely lost the S-palmitoylation because all the cysteines were substituted. Therefore, we concluded that Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated. In addition, it was found that the S-palmitoylation on the TM1 domain has a major effect on the mobility in the gel (lower panel of Figure 2 -D and Figure 3-B) . Therefore, we hereafter refer to the high and low molecular-mass forms as the TM1palmitoylated and the TM1-depalmitoylated forms, respectively. Finally, we reassigned the bands shown in the western blot analysis as follows: IFITM5-WT is fully palmitoylated, the C86A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys52 and/or Cys53, the C52A/C53A mutant is partially palmitoylated at Cys86, and the Cys-less mutant is completely depalmitoylated. Previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 interacts with FKBP11 [19] . FKBP11 belongs to the FK506-binding protein family and has a transmembrane domain. The interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 is important for the immune activity because formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex induces the expression of interferon-induced genesnamely, the Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and MHC class I antigen gene [28] . To investigate the effect of the S-palmitoylation on the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11, we carried out an immunoprecipitation assay. The osteoblast cells co-transfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5-WT and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured in the absence and the presence of 2BP. Then, the extracted cell-lysate was incubated with anti-FLAG agarose gel. The gel was washed several times. Finally, the proteins were competitively eluted by the addition of FLAG peptide. If IFITM5 interacted with FKBP11, it was expected that IFITM5 The conserved cysteines are highlighted in orange and numbered. In the lower panel, the numbers given in parenthesis correspond to the residual number for IFITM2. For the calculation of probability, a total of 23 IFITM2, 23 IFITM3, and 17 IFITM5 sequences derived from mammalian species in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) database were used. Sequence alignment was carried out using CLUSTALW. Sequence logos were generated using WEBLOGO 3. B) Western blot for the wild-type and cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 expressed in the osteoblast cells. For detection, the anti-IFITM5 antibody was used as a primary antibody. The upper arrow indicates that C52 and/or C53 in the TM1 domain is Spalmitoylated (lanes 1 and 3) . The C52A/C53A (lane 2) and Cys-less (lane 4) mutants are partially and completely depalmitoylated. The experiment was carried out 2 times. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075831.g003 would be obtained during this step and detected by immunoblotting. Figure 4 -A shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of IFITM5-WT with FKBP-FLAG. The band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panel). Lanes 1 and 2 are controls to ensure that IFITM5 and FKBP11 are both contained in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The controls also ensured that IFITM5 was S-palmitoylated in the absence of 2BP (see lane 1), whereas IFITM5 was not S-palmitoylated in the presence of 2BP (see lane 2). After the immunoprecipitation, a single band corresponding to the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 appeared in the absence of 2BP (see lane 3), indicating the interaction of the Spalmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11. However, in the presence of 2BP, no band corresponding to IFITM5 appeared (see lane 4) , indicating that the two molecules do not interact with each other. These results suggest that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the interaction with FKBP11. Next, we further investigated the relationship between the Spalmitoylation and the interaction with FKBP11 by using the IFITM5 mutants described above. The osteoblast cells cotransfected by the plasmids encoding IFITM5 mutants (C52A/ C53A, C86A, and Cys-less) and FKBP11-FLAG were cultured. The immunoprecipitation assay was carried out in the same way as described above. Figure 4 -B shows the results of the western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the IFITM5 mutants with FKBP11. Figure 4 -C shows the results of the control experiment using the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. As described in the previous section 3-3, the band corresponding to FKBP11 appeared in all the lanes (upper panels) because the immunoprecipitation was carried out using the anti-FLAG agarose gel. In the lower panel of Figure 4 -B, single bands were observed for the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutant (lanes 1 and 3) but not for the -C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (lanes 2 and 4) . This result indicates that the wild-type and the C86A mutant interact with FKBP11, whereas the other two mutants do not. Interestingly, this tendency mirrored the trend for the S-palmitoylation profiles, which means that Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain of the IFITM5-WT and -C86A mutants is S-palmitoylated, whereas these residues are not S-palmitoylated in the C52A/C53A and Cys-less mutants (see Figures 2-D, 3 -B and the lower panel of Figure 4 -C). Because the S-palmitoylation contributes to the IFITM5-FKBP11 interaction, as described in the previous section 3-3 (also in Figure 4-A) , the results of Figure 4 -B suggest that the mutants which lost the S-palmitoylation site(s), Cys52 and/or Cys53, are not able to interact with FKBP11. In other words, the S-palmitoylation on these cysteines is necessary for the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. As described above in the Introduction, previous studies have revealed that IFITM5 also contributes to bone formation [18] [19] [20] [21] . Therefore, we investigated the influence of Spalmitoylation on the bone nodule formation in osteoblast cells, in which native IFITM5 is expressed. Figure 5 shows the time-dependent nodule formation in the absence and the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-A and -B) . Figure 5 -C shows the results of the control trial to verify the effect of DMSO, which was used as the solvent for 2BP, on the nodule formation. The mineralized nodule was stained with Alizarin Red, which reacts with deposited calcium. In Figure 5 -D, the area of the mineralized nodule was plotted against experimental time. In the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-A, -C, and -D) , the mineralization was started 15 days after the initiation of the cell differentiation (Day 0). On the other hand, in the presence of 2BP ( Figure 5-B and -D) , the nodule was formed on Day 12. The halftime for the maximum mineralization in the presence of 2BP was estimated to be 7 days earlier than that in the absence of 2BP (Figure 5-D) . In addition, differences in the form of the mineralized nodules were observed. Figure 5 -E shows an enlarged view of each nodule on Day 21. The stained nodules were diffused in the presence of 2BP (panel b), whereas in the absence of 2BP the nodules formed a large cluster (panels a and c). Therefore, our observations in this study suggested that the S-palmitoylation affects the bone nodule formation in the osteoblast cells. In this study, we confirmed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 in the osteoblast cells, which was the same as that previously reported for IFITM3 and IFITM2. As reported previously, in IFITM3 and IFITM2, which share 85% sequence similarity (Figure 1-C) , two cysteines in the TM1 domain (Cys71 and Cys72 for IFITM3, Cys70 and Cys71 for IFITM2) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys105 for IFITM3, Cys104 for IFITM2) are all S-palmitoylated in cells [10, 24] . On the other hand, although IFITM5 shares 68% and 66% sequence similarity to IFITM3 and IFITM2, respectively, more than one cysteine in the TM1 domain (Cys52 or Cys53) and one cysteine in the CP loop (Cys86) are S-palmitoylated. Taking into account the high conservation of three cysteines in the IFITM proteins (Figures 1-A and 3-A) , all the cysteines in IFITM5 may be involved in the S-palmitoylation just as in the case of IFITM3 and IFITM2 [10, 24] . The roles of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM3 have been studied intensively, and the S-palmitoylation has been shown to be crucial for the correct positioning in the membrane and the resistance to viral infection and internalization [10] (the roles are summarized in Figure 6 -A and discussed in detail below). A recent study has revealed that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM2 is also important for the protein clustering in the membrane [24] . However, we do not know the role of the Spalmitoylation of IFITM5 for the clustering in the membrane at present because we have not yet succeeded in obtaining a proper antibody for immunohistochemistry, despite our allocating much time to the search and considering a considerable number of antibodies. Dr. Hanagata and co-workers previously reported that IFITM5 lacking the TM1 domain and the CP loop, which and IFITM5 (lower panels), the anti-FLAG and the anti-IFITM5 antibodies were used as primary antibodies, respectively. Arrows indicate the existence of each protein and the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5. A) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type IFITM5 with the FLAG-fused FKBP11 (FKBP11-FLAG) in the osteoblast cells in the absence and the presence of 2BP (denoted as "-" and "+", respectively). Lanes 1 and 2 are the results for the control trials used to verify the existence of IFITM5 and FKBP11 before the immunoprecipitation, and Lanes 3 and 4 show the results after the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 3 times. B) Western blot for the co-immunoprecipitation of the wild-type and the cysteine-substituted mutants of IFITM5 with FKBP11-FLAG in the osteoblast cells. The band corresponding to FLAG peptide is not shown because of the smaller molecular-mass of FLAG peptide relative to FKBP11-FLAG. C) The control experiment of Figure 4 -B used to verify that IFITM5 and FKBP11 were both present in the cell lysate before the immunoprecipitation. The experiment was repeated 2 times. A) The functional mechanism of IFITM3 is summarized from previous studies. (i) IFITM3 is S-palmitoylated at Cys71, Cys72, and Cys105, (ii) which induces clustering and correct positioning in the membrane, (iii) resulting in the antiviral activity against influenza virus. B) The functional mechanism of IFITM5 is summarized by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation allows IFITM5 to interact with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells (iii). The dissociation of CD9 from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex is induced by formation of the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex and leads to the immunologically relevant gene expression. IFITM5 also contributes to the bone formation, but it is unknown which states as described in (i)-(iii) are important for the bone formation at present.At present, no interactive protein has been identified in IFITM3 and IFITM2. On the other hand, IFITM5 interacts with the partner protein, FKBP11, and the S-palmitoylation clearly makes a significant contribution to the interaction. Therefore, IFITM5 forms a hetero-oligomer in the cell membrane for its physiological function. contain the relevant modification sites, lost the ability to interact with FKBP11 [19] . In the present study, we determined that the S-palmitoylation on Cys52 and/or Cys53 in the TM1 domain is necessary for the interaction. From these results, we speculate that Cys52 and Cys53 face toward the interaction surface with FKBP11, and therefore IFITM5 and FKBP11 interact with each other through the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) (summarized in Figure 6 -B, discussed in detail later). Our investigation revealed that Cys86 is involved in the Spalmitoylation but does not contribute to the interaction with FKBP11. We speculate that some other residues in the CP loop located near the TM1 domain make some contribution to the interaction. Previous investigations also revealed that IFITM5 expressed in the heterologous fibroblast NIH3T3 cells exhibited direct interactions with CD81, the B cell receptor-associated protein 31 (BCAP31), and the hydroxysteroid (17-beta) dehydrogenase 7 (HSD17b7). These three proteins bind to the IFITM5 without the S-palmitoylation (low molecular-mass form; see Figure 3 -b in ref [19] . and Figure 1 -B in ref [28] .). In the fibroblast cells, the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is insufficient [19] . These interactions are not observed in the native osteoblast cells, and therefore are nonspecific. Taking these facts into consideration, we speculate that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 promotes the specific interaction with FKBP11 in the osteoblast cells. The role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in immune activity of the osteoblast cells will be discussed by combining the results from the present and the previous studies. A specific interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 should be necessary to form the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. CD81, also known as TAPA-1, is a member of the tetraspanin membrane protein family and a component of the B-cell coreceptor complex which mediates the B-cell signaling for immune responses. When forming this complex, CD9, a partner protein with CD81, dissociates from the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex and consequently induces the osteoblastspecific expression of the interferon-induced genes, Bst2, Irgm, Ifit3, B2m, and the MHC class I antigen gene [28] . If the Spalmitoylation-mediated specific interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 were lost, the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex would not be formed, and consequently the interferon-induced gene expression would be inhibited because CD9 would remain associated with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex. In this respect, we speculate that IFITM5 is involved in the immune system activity in the osteoblast cells and the interaction of the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 with FKBP11 regulates the immune activity. In addition, it was suggested that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 contributes to the bone nodule formation, including morphology and time for mineralization, in the osteoblast cells ( Figure 5 ). It is difficult to conclude at present that the lack of the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 causes the diffusion of the bone nodules (panel b of Figure 5 -E); we can say, however, that IFITM5 will probably not be S-palmitoylated in the cells in the presence of 2BP. While 2BP is commonly used as an inhibitor of palmitoylation, it also targets many metabolic enzymes [33, 34] . Thus, it is also difficult to interpret the results of the long-term incubation of the osteoblast cells in the presence of 2BP. In any case, these are interesting and key observations in terms of clarifying the role played by the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 in bone formation, and further studies are required. Figure 6 describes a possible mechanism of the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11 and the role of IFITM5 in the osteoblast cell function by means of a comparison with IFITM3. In the case of IFITM3, as shown in Figure 6 -A, the following are observed. (i) The three cysteines are all S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylation leads to the clustering and the correct positioning of IFITM3 molecules in the membrane (iii). The Spalmitoylation and the following clustering are crucial for the resistance to the influenza virus. When IFITM3 lacks the Spalmitoylation, the IFITM3 molecules do not cluster, which leads to the significant decrease in the antiviral activity. On the other hand, Figure 6 -B shows that the following observations are made in the case of IFITM5. (i) Cys86, plus one or two other cysteine residues in IFITM5, i.e., Cys52 and/or Cys53, are S-palmitoylated (ii). The S-palmitoylated IFITM5 is able to interact specifically with FKBP11. The interaction is presumed to be mediated by the palmitic acid(s) attached to the cysteine(s) facing toward the interaction surface on FKBP11. Cys86 is involved in the S-palmitoylation but not in the interaction of IFITM5 with FKBP11. At present, however, little is known about the role of the S-palmitoylation of IFITM5 for the localization in the membrane. When the S-palmitoylation affects the localization of IFITM5 as in the case of IFITM3 [10] , the S-palmitoylated IFITM5 molecules should be localized in the membrane or the depalmitoylated molecules should be delocalized. The loss of the interaction between IFITM5 and FKBP11 could be due to a relocalization of the depalmitoylated IFITM5 that prevents its association with FKBP11 (iii). The Spalmitoylated IFITM5 interacts with the FKBP11-CD81-FPRP/CD9 complex through FKBP11, which induces the dissociation of CD9 from the complex and the expression of 5 immunologically relevant genes. Finally, IFITM5 forms the IFITM5-FKBP11-CD81-FPRP complex. It is unknown at present which of the three states (i)~(iii) illustrated in Figure 6 -B is important for the bone mineralization of the osteoblast cells. The lack of the S-palmitoylation influences the interaction with FKBP11, which could account for the following complex formation and gene expression. In addition, the bone nodule formation is also affected. Note that the role of the Spalmitoylation has been involved in the bone formation [35] . It is indicated that the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 plays roles not only for the regulation of the immune activity but also for the bone formation. In conclusion, we have revealed the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 and its role in the interaction with FKBP11. Not only the immune activity but also the bone mineralization in the osteoblast cells is affected by the S-palmitoylation. In general, the functional role of the S-palmitoylation is different for each protein [36] . For many proteins, the palmitoylation and depalmitoylation cycle is constitutive and regulated by enzymes. Based on the present results, it is difficult to address (i) whether the S-palmitoylation on IFITM5 is constitutive or regulated, or (ii) when and where IFITM5 is S-palmitoylated in the osteoblast cells. Further studies are required and are currently underway.

What is another name for IFITM5?

Population-Based Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors in Infants Less Than 6 Months in Nepal https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5907881/ SHA: ef821e34873d4752ecae41cd9dfc08a5e6db45e2 Authors: Hughes, Michelle M; Englund, Janet A; Kuypers, Jane; Tielsch, James M; Khatry, Subarna K; Shrestha, Laxman; LeClerq, Steven C; Steinhoff, Mark; Katz, Joanne Date: 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.1093/jpids/piw079 License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Pertussis is estimated to cause 2 percent of childhood deaths globally and is a growing public health problem in developed countries despite high vaccination coverage. Infants are at greatest risk of morbidity and mortality. Maternal vaccination during pregnancy may be effective to prevent pertussis in young infants, but population-based estimates of disease burden in infants are lacking, particularly in low-income countries. The objective of this study was to estimate the incidence of pertussis in infants less than 6 months of age in Sarlahi District, Nepal. METHODS: Nested within a population-based randomized controlled trial of influenza vaccination during pregnancy, infants were visited weekly from birth through 6 months to assess respiratory illness in the prior week. If any respiratory symptoms had occurred, a nasal swab was collected and tested with a multitarget pertussis polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. The prospective cohort study includes infants observed between May 2011 and August 2014. RESULTS: The incidence of PCR-confirmed Bordetella pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% confidence interval, 7.7–21.3) in a cohort of 3483 infants with at least 1 day of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based active home surveillance for respiratory illness, a low risk for pertussis was estimated among infants in rural Nepal. Nepal’s immunization program, which includes a childhood whole cell pertussis vaccine, may be effective in controlling pertussis in infants. Text: A resurgence of pertussis across age groups has occurred in several countries in recent years [1] . Middle-and high-income countries that use an acellular pertussis vaccine for the primary vaccination series have been particularly affected [2, 3] , and infants and adolescents have experienced the greatest increase [4] . Factors that may contribute to the increased risk of pertussis include rapidly waning immunity from those vaccinated with acellular vaccines [1, 5, 6] , asymptomatic transmission from individuals vaccinated with acellular vaccines [7] , genetic adaption of Bordetella pertussis [8] , vaccination delay or refusal [9] , improved surveillance and laboratory capabilities [2] , and overall increased awareness of the continuing circulation of B pertussis [1] . Some countries experiencing epidemic pertussis, including the United States, United Kingdom, and Argentina, now recommend pertussis immunization in pregnancy and vaccination of close contacts [10, 11] to protect the youngest infants from pertussis before they can be vaccinated themselves [12] . Recent data from maternal vaccination trials demonstrate the ability of antibodies to be transferred from mothers to their infants in pregnancy and their persistence in infants [13] . Global estimates of pertussis show the highest childhood burden in Southeast Asia [14] . In this region, maternal pertussis vaccination during pregnancy may be a way to protect infants, similar to the approach using tetanus toxoid vaccine. However, globally only 1 population-based estimate of pertussis in infants from birth has been conducted (Senegal) [15] , and surveillance and laboratory capabilities in Asia are lacking [16, 17] . The World Health Organization (WHO) recently recommended that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccines continue to do so in light of recent data indicating that acellular pertussis vaccines are less effective than whole cell pertussis vaccines [18] . Population-based data are needed, especially in low-income settings, to provide a more accurate estimate of the burden of pertussis in infants to inform childhood and maternal immunization policies [19, 20] . We report on a prospective cohort study following infants weekly in their homes to monitor for pertussis disease from birth to age 6 months. The objective was to provide a population-based estimate of laboratory-confirmed pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months of age in the Sarlahi District, Nepal. The study was nested within 2 consecutive randomized controlled trials of maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy set in the Sarlahi District, located in the central Terai (low-lying plains) region of Nepal [21] . At the start of the trial, prevalent pregnancies were identified through a census of all households in the catchment area. For the duration of the trial, field workers visited all households in the communities, every 5 weeks, where married women (15-40 years) resided, for surveillance of incident pregnancies. Once a pregnancy was identified, women provided consent and were enrolled. From April 25, 2011 through September 9, 2013, women between 17 and 34 weeks gestation were randomized and vaccinated with either an influenza vaccine or placebo. The study was a population-based prospective cohort of infants followed from birth through 6 months postpartum. Approval for the study was obtained from the Institutional Review Boards at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Cincinnati Children's Medical Center, the Institute of Medicine at Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, and the Nepal Health Research Council. The trials are registered at Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01034254). At baseline, information was collected on household structure, socioeconomic status, and demographics. At enrollment, date of last menstrual period and pregnancy history data were collected. As soon as possible after delivery, the mother and infant were visited to collect detailed birth information including infant weight and breastfeeding status. From birth through 6 months, postpartum infants were visited weekly by a field worker, who recorded any infant respiratory symptoms in the past 7 days. If an infant had any of the following symptoms, a mid-nasal nylon flocked swab was collected: fever, cough, wheeze, difficulty breathing, or ear infection. Starting on August 17, 2012, new symptoms, more specific for pertussis, were added to the weekly morbidity visit: apnea, cyanosis, cough with vomit, or whoop/whooping cough. The swabs were stored for up to 1 week at room temperature in PrimeStore Molecular Transport Medium (Longhorn Diagnostics LLC, Bethesda, MD). In addition to these signs, mothers were asked which, if any, infant vaccinations were received in the past 7 days, including pertussis vaccination [22] . Mid-nasal swabs were also collected on a weekly basis from mothers from enrollment through 6 months postpartum who reported fever plus one additional morbidity (cough, sore throat, nasal congestion, or myalgia). All nasal swabs collected from infants were tested for B pertussis, Bordetella parapertussis, and Bordetella bronchispetica. Only the nasal swabs of mothers whose infants tested positive for any of these pathogens were tested for the same pathogens. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing was conducted at the University of Washington's Molecular Virology Laboratory according to previously published methods [23] . Two-target PCR was used to assess the presence of 3 Bordetella species: B pertussis, B parapertussis, and B bronchiseptica. The amplified targets were chromosomal repeated insertion sequence IS481 (IS) and the polymorphic pertussis toxin ptxA promoter region (PT). After amplification, the melting points of the amplicons were measured in an iCycler (Bio-Rad). A sample was interpreted as positive when the target(s) had a melting temperature within the species-specific acceptable range and a computed tomography ≤42. A sample was negative if none of the targets tested positive or a single positive target was not reproducible. Maternal nasal swabs were tested for those mothers whose infants tested positive for any Bordetella species Polymerase chain reaction was also performed for several viral infections (influenza, rhinovirus [RV], respiratory syncytial virus [RSV], bocavirus [BoV], human metapneumovirus, coronavirus, adenovirus, and parainfluenza [1] [2] [3] [4] ) as previously described [21] . Of 3693 women enrolled, 3646 infants were live born to 3621 women (Supplementary Figure 1 ). Infants were included in this analysis if they were followed for any length of the follow-up period (0 to 180 days); median total follow-up was 146 days per infant (Supplementary Figure 2) . The final dataset consists of 3483 infants, contributing 1280 infant-years of observation, with at least 1 follow-up visit during the first 6 months. This includes infants from the entire trial period, both before and after more pertussis-specific additions to the weekly symptom questionnaire. At baseline, data on household structure were gathered. At enrollment, women reported their literacy status (binary) and pregnancy history. The field workers identified their ethnicity into 2 broad groups (Pahadi, a group originating from the hills; or Madeshi, a group originating from north India) from names and observation. Women were categorized as nulliparous or multiparous. Responses to 25 questions about household construction, water and sanitation, and household assets were used to develop an index to measure the socioeconomic status of households. Binary variables for each of the 25 questions and a mean SES score were calculated for each household. Gestational age was measured using a woman's report of date of last menstrual period during pregnancy surveillance. Birth weight was collected as soon as possible after birth using a digital scale (Tanita model BD-585, precision to nearest 10 grams). Birth weights collected >72 hours after birth were excluded from the analysis. Small for gestational age (SGA) was calculated using the sex-specific 10th percentile cutoff described by Alexander et al [24] and the INTERGROWTH-21 standards [25] . Women were asked within how many hours of birth breastfeeding was initiated and binary breastfeeding categories were created (≤1 hour versus >1 hour postdelivery). Incidence was calculated as the number of pertussis cases per 1000 infant-years at risk. Poisson exact 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were constructed. Characteristics of infant pertussis cases were compared with nonpertussis cases using bivariate Poisson regression. Characteristics of all pertussis respiratory episodes were compared with nonpertussis respiratory episodes; t tests were used for continuous predictors and Fisher's exact tests were used for categorical associations due to the low number of pertussis episodes. All statistical analyses were conducted in Stata/SE 14.1. A total of 3483 infants had 4283 episodes of respiratory illness between May 18, 2011 and April 30, 2014. Thirty-nine percent (n = 1350) of infants experienced no respiratory episodes. The incidence of respiratory illness was 3.6 episodes per infant-year (95% CI, 3.5-3.7). Mean episode duration was 4.7 days (95% CI, 4.6-4.9). A total of 3930 (92%) episodes were matched to 1 or more pertussis-tested nasal swabs from 2026 infants (Supplementary Figure 1) . Seventeen cases of B pertussis were identified from 19 nasal swabs (nasal swabs were positive on 2 consecutive weeks for 2 infants). The incidence of PCR-confirmed B pertussis was 13.3 cases per 1000-infant years (95% CI, 7.7-21.3). Five cases of B parapertussis were detected with an incidence of 3.9 cases per 1000 infant-years (95% CI, 1.3-9.1). No cases of B bronchiseptica were identified. The average pertussis episode duration was 8 days (range, 2-33) ( Table 1 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 83 days (range, 19-137) (median, 80; interquartile range, 63-109). The most common symptoms were cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit. None of the additional symptoms related to pertussis that were added in year 2 (cyanosis, apnea, cough with vomit, and whoop) resulted in collection of nasal swabs based solely on these additional symptoms. Pertussis episodes were statistically significantly more likely to include difficulty breathing, cough with vomit, and whoop compared with other respiratory illness. Six infants had at least 1 pertussis vaccination before pertussis disease onset (three <2 weeks and three >2 weeks before pertussis illness) with a mean of 18 days from vaccination to illness compared with 49 days for nonpertussis episodes (P = .03). Five infants received their first pertussis vaccination postpertussis disease onset, whereas 6 infants received no pertussis vaccination in the first 180 days. Three fourths of pertussis episodes were coinfected with at least 1 virus, with RV and BoV the most common. Cases of pertussis were more likely to be infected with BoV than respiratory cases due to causes other than pertussis. The majority of cases occurred between February 2013 and January 2014 (Figure 1) . No statistically significant differences between risk factors for pertussis and nonpertussis cases ( Table 2) were documented. Given the low number of pertussis cases, the lack of a statistical association is not evidence of nonassociation. No deaths occurred in infants who had pertussis. Of the 8 mothers of B pertussis-positive infants who had a nasal swab collected (14 nasal swabs total) during their own follow-up, none were positive for any pertussis species. The 5 B parapertussis cases were primarily male whose mothers were primiparous, literate, and Pahadi ethnicity (Supplementary Table 1 ). No mothers of infants who had B parapertussis had a nasal swab collected during follow-up. The average B parapertussis episode duration was 4 days (Supplementary Table 2 ). Mean age of onset of symptoms was 58 days with a range of 7-95 days. The most common symptoms were cough and wheeze. Rhinovirus and RSV were the only coinfections observed. All B parapertussis cases occurred between September 2011 and February 2012 ( Figure 1 ). A low incidence of pertussis and generally mild clinical presentation were found in infants <6 months in Nepal. To our knowledge, this represents one of the first population-based active surveillance of PCR-confirmed pertussis among young infants in Asia. Acellular pertussis vaccine trials conducted in the 1990s found the average pertussis incidence in the whole cell vaccine groups ranged from 1 to 37 cases per 1000 infantyears [26] . Our finding of 13 B pertussis cases per 1000 infantyears was on the lower end of this range. In the United States in 2014, the estimated pertussis incidence in infants less than 6 months was 2 cases per 1000 infant-years [27] , much lower than observed in our study; however, this passive surveillance system likely vastly underestimates pertussis incidence. Thus, there is a need for active surveillance data such as ours. Furthermore, given our highly sensitive case detection method, many of our pertussis cases would likely not have been detected in the previous acellular pertussis vaccine trials. More stringent respiratory symptom criteria would have lowered our incidence estimate even further. The low incidence was found in a population where pentavalent vaccine (Pentavac: Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis [Whole Cell], Hepatitis-B and Haemophilus Type b Conjugate Vaccine; Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd), scheduled for administration at 6, 10, and 14 weeks, is received with significant delays (7% of infants received all 3 recommended pertussis vaccines by 6 months) [22] . These data support the WHO's recommendation that countries using whole cell pertussis vaccine continue to do so given that the majority of outbreaks have been concentrated in countries using the acellular pertussis vaccine [2] . Recent studies suggest that protection from acellular pertussis vaccine is not as strong or long lasting as that conferred by the whole cell pertussis vaccine [6, 28] . Another contributing factor to the low pertussis incidence observed could be that surveillance was conducted during a period of low pertussis transmission. Pertussis is a cyclical disease, thought to peak every 2 to 4 years, and we may have captured the burden at a low circulation period [6] . We observed over 70% of our B pertussis cases over a 1-year period. This increase from earlier observation periods could indicate a temporary rise in pertussis consistent with its cyclical pattern or a true increase in the baseline burden. Previous research on pertussis seasonality has in different places and time periods demonstrated various periods of peak transmission or no discernable patterns [29, 30] . Although our data do not support a seasonal pattern, the numbers observed are too low to be conclusive. Pertussis symptom duration and severity were mild compared with the classic pertussis case presentation. Only 3 of the 17 cases fulfilled the WHO criteria, which requires a minimum of 2 weeks of cough, whoop, or posttussive vomiting [31] . Studies on pertussis in infants have generally been clinic-based, hospital-based, or in an outbreak, which therefore required a certain severity of illness for parents to recognize a need for medical attention [29, 30, 32] . These study designs and passive surveillance efforts therefore may have missed milder pertussis cases [33] . Our study, which required only 1 respiratory symptom for a nasal swab to be collected, had increased sensitivity to detect a range of pertussis case presentations. An alternative explanation for the mild cases seen could be an increase in the proportion of mild compared with severe pertussis cases in Nepal. Although cough, difficulty breathing, and cough with vomit were the most common symptoms, no symptom was present in all B pertussis cases. During an epidemic period in Washington state, among infants <1 year, who had a minimum of 14 days cough plus an additional symptom, 82% had posttussive emesis, 29% had apnea, 26% had whoop, and 42% had cyanosis [32] . A study of US neonates with pertussis showed the symptom prevalence to be 97% for cough, 91% for cyanosis, 58% for apnea, and 3% for fever [34] . Our study found lower or equal symptom prevalence with the exception of fever. Fever prevalence was higher in our study, similar to that found in Peru [29] . Although not statistically significant, infants with pertussis were more likely to have been born preterm, low birth weight, and SGA, and their mothers were more likely to be primiparous. These findings are similar to previous studies showing no difference in pertussis cases by sex [29, 35, 36] or crowding [35] but showing differences by birth weight [36] . Coinfections were common, consistent with findings from other hospital-based studies [33] . Codetection of B pertussis and B parapertussis with respiratory viruses may be due to asymptomatic pertussis carriage. The incidence of B parapertussis of 4 cases per 1000 person-years was comparable to that of 2 per 1000 person-years found in the Italian acellular pertussis vaccine trial in 1992-1993 [37] . The duration of illness was shorter for B parapertussis with a maximum duration of 6 days compared with a maximum of 33 days for B pertussis. A milder presentation is consistent with clinical knowledge of B parapertussis infection [37, 38] . Bordetella parapertussis cases occurred only during a 5-month period. There were several study design limitations. We cannot be certain whether the reported symptoms were caused by pertussis, another organism, or whether symptoms were related to 2 or more etiologic agents. We were unable to perform multivariate regression modeling for characteristics associated with pertussis disease and pertussis cases due to the small number of cases we detected. Infant respiratory symptoms were reported by parents, who may have missed signs that might have been observed by a healthcare worker. However, the criteria for collection of the nasal swab were broad and did not require sophisticated clinical skills. However, apnea and cyanosis may have been difficult for parents to identify. Although the criteria for specimen collection changed in year 2, no infant experienced a pertussis-specific symptom in isolation without also having one of the originally specified respiratory symptoms. These data support our assumption that we were unlikely to have missed pertussis cases in year 1 with our less sensitive respiratory symptom criteria. Nasal swabs were collected in the mid-nasal region for influenza virus detection, which may have lowered the sensitivity of pertussis detection. In a field site, the acceptability of an additional nasopharyngeal swab would likely have increased the participant refusal rate. This would have decreased the generalizability of our results to the entire population. Although nasopharyngeal swabs or nasopharyngeal aspirates are the recommended specimen collection method [39] , the nasopharyngeal region was established as the collection area of choice when the diagnostic measure was culture, which has low sensitivity. Recent data demonstrated the comparability of using mid-nasal versus nasopharyngeal swabs in PCR pertussis detection [40] . Strengths of the study included being a population-based, prospective study, with very low refusal rates. Risk factors, clinical symptoms, and coinfections were prospectively identified without the potential bias that may occur when these data are collected retrospectively or in clinical settings. The community-based design allows generalizability of these results to the entire population and not just those seeking care at a health facility or in an outbreak situation. The Sarlahi District is located in the Terai region where the majority of Nepalese reside, and it has similar demographics to the entire population of Nepal [41] . Sarlahi's location near sea level and on the border with India supports the generalizability of these results to many populations living on the Indian subcontinent. The weekly active surveillance with sensitive criteria for pertussis testing was able to detect mild and atypical pertussis cases, which may have been missed by previous traditional surveillance. The multitarget PCR method allowed highly sensitive and specific detection of 2 additional Bordetella species beyond the primary B pertussis target. We observed a low incidence of pertussis in infants in a whole cell vaccine environment. Pertussis cases were generally milder than expected compared with traditional pertussis clinical definitions. These data support clinicians considering pertussis in their differential diagnosis of infants with mild respiratory symptoms. Policymakers in Nepal will need to weigh the benefit of an additional prenatal pertussis vaccine or a switch to acellular primary pertussis vaccine with the low burden of pertussis in infants less than 6 months. Our study demonstrated that mid-nasal swabs were able to detect pertussis using a sensitive multitarget PCR. The less invasive mid-nasal nasal swab is an attractive alternative for pertussis nasal swab collection, and further research is needed to compare this collection site with nasopharyngeal swabs. In the future, this method may enhance population-based surveillance efforts.

What type of swabs are used to sample patients with pertussis?

Whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of human metapneumovirus strains from Kenya and Zambia https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6941262/ SHA: f5ae3f66face323615df39d838e056ab5fcc98df Authors: Kamau, Everlyn; Oketch, John W.; de Laurent, Zaydah R.; Phan, My V. T.; Agoti, Charles N.; Nokes, D. James; Cotten, Matthew Date: 2020-01-02 DOI: 10.1186/s12864-019-6400-z License: cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is an important cause of acute respiratory illness in young children. Whole genome sequencing enables better identification of transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic sequences. RESULTS: We report a 2-reaction amplicon-based next generation sequencing method to determine the complete genome sequences of five HMPV strains, representing three subgroups (A2, B1 and B2), directly from clinical samples. In addition to reporting five novel HMPV genomes from Africa we examined genetic diversity and sequence patterns of publicly available HMPV genomes. We found that the overall nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3 and 80% for HMPV group A and B, respectively, the diversity between HMPV groups was greater at amino acid level for SH and G surface protein genes, and multiple subgroups co-circulated in various countries. Comparison of sequences between HMPV groups revealed variability in G protein length (219 to 241 amino acids) due to changes in the stop codon position. Genome-wide phylogenetic analysis showed congruence with the individual gene sequence sets except for F and M2 genes. CONCLUSION: This is the first genomic characterization of HMPV genomes from African patients. Text: Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is a single-stranded RNA virus in the family Paramyxoviridae and closely related to human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) [1] . HMPV causes respiratory disease similar to RSV, ranging from mild upper respiratory infection to bronchiolitis and pneumonia [2] . HMPV infections are seasonal and coinfection with other respiratory pathogens is common [1] . The HMPV genome is approximately 13 kb and comprises eight open reading frames (ORFs) encoding nucleoprotein (N), phosphoprotein (P), matrix protein (M), fusion glycoprotein (F), transcription enhancer protein (M2), small hydrophobic protein (SH), attachment glycoprotein (G), and large polymerase protein (L) [3] . The membrane glycoproteins F and G sequences are used to define two major genotypes or groups, A and B, which are further classified into four subgroups (A1, A2, B1, and B2). HMPV A2, the most frequently observed subgroup, is further divided into two proposed sub-lineages (A2a and A2b) [3] . HMPV is reported to have an important contribution to acute respiratory infections (ARI) in Africa. For instance, HMPV-associated hospitalization was estimated at 6.5 per 1000 person years in infants in Soweto, South Africa [4] ; at 4% in hospitalized children with severe ARI during a 2-year period in Cameroon [5] ; and in rural western Kenya, incidence of HMPV associated with ARI cases in outpatient clinic visits was estimated at 0.43 per 100 person-years among outpatients [6] . In Kilifi coastal Kenya, between January 2007 to December 2011, children under 6 months of age accounted for 44% of HMPV positive cases, while 74% were children under 1 year, and 1.3% (2/160) were children > 36 months [7] . In Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps in Kenya, HMPV was detected in 5.7% hospitalizations, and virus-positive crude hospitalization rate (per 1000 children < 5 years old) was 4 for HMPV [8] . In Mali, contribution of HMPV to pneumonia had a population attributable fraction of 9% (95% CI: 7-11%) [9] ; while in Morocco [10] , 8 .9% of children < 5 years admitted with severe pneumonia were infected with HMPV. HMPV prevalence and incidence elsewhere globally, is indicated in Additional file 4: Table S1 . Of note is that the variations in incidence rates could be attributed to study population, seasonality and even detection methods. Nonetheless, genomic epidemiology of HMPV in Africa is inadequately reported, and comparison of genetic similarity and differences between African and global strains is not documented. Genome sequences provide valuable resources for characterizing viral evolution and disease epidemiology, and for identifying transmission events and outbreaks, which is not always possible with sub-genomic fragments [11] [12] [13] . The increased number of phylogenetically informative variant sites obtained from full genomes may allow better linking of cases and aid public health interventions in real time during epidemics [14, 15] . PCR approaches for targeted whole genome sequencing, in contrast to random amplification, can preferentially amplify the target virus over host or environmental nucleic acids [16, 17] potentially focusing sequencing on the virus of interest. To date, the largest dataset of HMPV whole genomes (n = 61) sequenced from any tropical country is from three Peruvian cities, Lima, Piura and Iquitos [18] . In Africa, apart from one metapneumovirus genome identified from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda (GenBank accession number HM197719), there are no HMPV genomes reported according to the NIAID Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR, http://www.viprbrc. org/, accessed April 30, 2019). This has led to limited understanding of the genetic and genomic diversity of HMPV in the continent. This work describes a whole genome sequencing (WGS) approach for HMPV from a small number of HMPV positive clinical samples collected at Kilifi County Hospital in Kilifi, Kenya and University Teaching Hospital in Lusaka, Zambia. The genomes were generated by sequencing overlapping PCR amplicons spanning the entire genome. These are the first reported complete genome sequences of locally circulating HMPV strains obtained directly from clinical samples in Africa. We also combined the new genomes with publicly available sequences to examine patterns in global HMPV genetic diversity. Whole genome sequencing was successful for all 5 clinical samples that were attempted. A single genomic sequence was obtained from each sample, and the length of the 5 new HMPV genomes ranged from 13,097 to 13, 134 nt (> 95% length coverage). Sequencing and data assembly parameters, including coverage depth are shown in Table 1 . Sequence annotation of the full-length genomes using Geneious R8.1.5 (https://www.geneious.com) identified the expected eight coding ORFs and non-coding genomic regions. The overall nucleotide identity (i.e., identical sites averaging over all sequence pairs and excluding positions containing gaps) between all 143 genome sequences analyzed (5 new genomes plus 138 from ViPR) was 58.2%. Nucleotide sequence identity was 71.3% within HMPV-A and 80% within HMPV-B. Intrasubgroup, A1, A2, B1 and B2 genomes shared 92.1% (10 sequences), 76.8% (88 sequences), 91% (24 sequences) and 89.6% (21 sequences) amino acid sequence identity. For the 143 HMPV genomes, we checked sequence conservation at transcriptional control regions, at the termini of each gene, as well as the lengths of intergenic sequences between gene boundaries. The length of the F-M2 intergenic region was different between group A and B viruses, that is, 13 nt and 2 nt, respectively. The SH-G and G-L intergenic regions were the longest, up to 125 nt and to 190 nt, respectively. Consensus nucleotides (9 to 19 length) at the putative start and end regions flanking the ORF of the viral genes are shown in Fig. 1 . The gene-start and -end regions of N and P were conserved (> 90% average pairwise identity) in both HMPV groups, and the M2 and M gene-start and -end were also conserved in HMPV group A and B, respectively. The putative ATG start codon was consistently located at positions 14-16 upstream of a gene start motif (consensus: GG/AGAC/TAAA/GTnnnnATG), except for the internal M2-2. An additional ATG start codon upstream of the gene-start motif was observed in the SH gene for the B1 and B2 strains. In five of the eight annotated genes (N, P, F, M2, and G (B1 and B2 strains only)), the intergenic regions were short and the ORFs for these 5 genes terminated within the propositioned gene-end motifs. We combined the five genome sequences from Kenya and Zambia with available global sequences, aligned individual genes and calculated the percent nucleotide (nt) and amino acid (aa) identity ( Table 2) . The coding sequences of N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes were conserved at nucleotide and amino acid levels, by sharing > 85% between-subgroup nucleotide identity and 90% protein identity ( Table 3 ). The nucleoprotein gene was the most conserved among all subgroups at the nt and aa levels. SH and G glycoprotein genes were more divergent between the HMPV subgroups at the nucleotide level with 76 and 63% identity, respectively. The SH protein length was variable between group A and B strains due to a nucleotide substitution (CAA ➔ TAA) at gene position 532 in group B, resulting in protein lengths of 178 and 180 aa, respectively. The predicted G protein length also varied among the different HMPV subgroups, between 219 and 241 aa, due to different positions of the Stop codon. Amino acid sequence diversity for G and SH glycoproteins is depicted in Fig. 2 and Additional file 2: Figure S2 , respectively. The diversity of the complete nucleotide sequences of SH and G genes is depicted in phylogenetic trees in Fig. 3 . We evaluated phylogenetic classification and relationship between the 5 new genomes obtained in this study and previously published genomes (Fig. 3) . Full genome Figure S3 . There was phylogenetic congruence with the individual gene sequence sets as with the full genome dataset, except for F and M2 gene (Additional file 3: Figure S3 ). Variant or drifted viral strains may lower the sensitivity of detection resulting in a decreased quantitation of the viral load and underestimation of disease incidence [19] . We checked the new HMPV genomes for nucleotide differences in the genomic regions targeted by our diagnostic rRT-PCR primers and probes (Additional file 7: Table S4 ) used for HMPV detection. Up to eight primer-and probetemplate mismatches were identified (Fig. 4) : one mismatch in the forward primer region in HMPV group A (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4a ); one mismatch in each of the forward and probe target regions in group B (F gene-based rRT-PCR assay, Fig. 4b) ; and 5 different mismatches with the N-gene based rRT-PCR assay (Fig. 4c) . Note, the F gene-based rRT-PCR assays are different or specific to the two HMPV groups. HMPV causes respiratory illness presenting as mild upper respiratory tract infection or life-threatening severe bronchiolitis and pneumonia primarily in children, sometimes adults as well as immunocompromised individuals [2] . However, HMPV genome sequence data from Africa is sparse and information on genome-wide diversity is limited. In the present study, the whole genome sequences of five HMPV strains from Kenya and Zambia were determined and compared with the genomes published previously from around the world. Comparative sequence analysis indicated fairly conserved positioning of the gene-start and -end regions as well as translational start and -end codons. Variation in genestart and -end sequences can have significant impact on transcription initiation and termination efficiency so that there is more selective pressure preventing changes in these regions [20] , and this likely explains our observation. The additional ATG start codon found upstream of the gene-start motif of the SH gene was consistent with a previous report [21] , though its role in gene expression is yet to be identified. These observed sequence conservation in N, M, F, M2-1, M2-2, and L genes is not unusual and is suggestive of functional and structural constraints on diversity, but less expected of the F gene because of its status as a neutralization and protective antigen, similar to its close 'relative' RSV [22] . It has also been suggested that the low diversity in F gene might make a substantial contribution to cross-neutralization and cross-protection between the HMPV subgroups [21] . The relatively high frequency of amino acid diversity in G (and to a lesser extent SH) could be attributable to selective pressure for amino acid change coming from host immunity; and the ability of the protein to tolerate substitutions, which might be due to its proposed extended, unfolded nature [22] . The phylogenetic incongruence observed between whole genome tree and the F and G gene trees, is as reported previously for HMPV [23] , and could be attributed to differential rates of evolution, selection pressure or past recombination events [24] . The prevalence of HMPV in hospitalized pediatric population in Kilifi county in coastal Kenya has been reported [7, 25] . However, it is notable that in recent years, HMPV has been detected at low prevalence in Kilifi (unpublished observations from hospital-based pneumonia surveillance). Whether this low prevalence is due to reduced virus transmission, or decreased sensitivity of our HMPV molecular diagnostic assay due to progressive primer/probe mismatches, is yet to be established. We present the first full genome sequences of circulating HMPV strains from sub-Saharan Africa. A limitation of our sequencing method, as is common with amplicon sequencing protocols [26, 27] , was absent coverage at the 3′ leader and 5′ trailer regions not captured by these primers. Our results demonstrate the application of amplicon sequencing to generate full length HMPV genomes directly from clinical samples. The observed diversity of the individual genes is comparable to that described previously [20] [21] [22] . This method and data provide a useful reference for design of local molecular diagnostics and for studies aimed at understanding HMPV epidemiology and evolution in Africa. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP) swab samples were collected from children (1-59 months) hospitalized with pneumonia, four of whom were enrolled in the PERCH study [18] in 2012. The fifth sample was collected from a child enrolled in the routine pneumonia surveillance study at Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, in 2015. The samples were tested for HMPV by multiplex semi-quantitative real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR) assays. The rRT-PCR primers and probes used, cycling conditions and assay set up have been described elsewhere [28, 29] . Fusion (F) and glycoprotein (G) encoding genes of the HMPV positive samples were amplified in a one-step RT-PCR assay (OneStep RT-PCR kit, QIAGEN), as described previously [7] . Partial G or F nucleotide sequences were analyzed by maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees using IQ-TREE [30] , together with reference strains of HMPV subgroups (accession numbers AF371337.2, FJ168779, AY297749, AY530095, JN184401 and AY297748). Five HMPV positive samples from the Kenya and Zambia study sites, belonging to the A2a (n = 1), A2b (n = 2), B1 (n = 1) and B2 (n = 1) genetic subgroups based on their G and F gene sequences, were selected for whole genome sequencing. Data on age, sex and clinical assessment information collected at the time of sample collection, for the five selected samples, are shown in Table 3 . The sequencing protocol consisted of four steps as follows: (i) primer design, (ii) preparation of primer mixes, (iii) cDNA and PCR (iv) Illumina sequencing and data analysis. All human metapneumovirus (HMPV) full genome sequences were retrieved from GenBank (January 2018) using the query (txid162145 (Organism) AND 12000(SLEN): 14000(SLEN) NOT patent). Sequence entries with gaps larger than 6 nt were excluded to generate a set of yielding 178 genomes. All possible 23 nt sequences were generated from the genomes dataset and trimmed to a final calculated melting temperature (Tm) of 47.9-49.5°C. Sequences with homology to rRNA sequences, with GC content outside < 0.3 or > 0.75 or with a single nucleotide fractional content of > 0.6 were discarded. The primer set was then made nonredundant yielding 60,746 potential primers. All potential primers were mapped against the 178 HMPV full genomes and the number of perfect matches (frequency score) was determined as a measure of primer sequence conservation. To select primers, the HMPV genome sequences were divided into amplicons with 222 nt overlap spanning the virus genome. Potential primers that mapped within the terminal 5′ and 3′ 222 nt of each amplicon were identified and the sequence with the highest frequency score was selected, and primers mapping to the reverse bins were reverse complemented. In this manner, 24 primers were selected for each of the 4 HMPV genotype representative genomes (GenBank accession number HMPV A1: AF371337, HMPV A2: FJ168779; HMPV B1: AY525843, and HMPV B2: FJ168778). Because of conservation between genotypes, there was primer redundancy which was removed. The final set of 65 primer sequences, their lengths, calculated Tm, fractional GC content and mapping position on the HMPV genome are presented in Additional file 5: Table S2 . The primers were computationally tested against each of the 4 HMPV subgroups. A graphical representation of the primer target sites is presented in Additional file 1: Figure S1 . Amplification was performed in two reactions. To avoid generating small products from adjacent forward and reverse primers, amplicons were assigned to alternate Table 3 ). Bootstrap support values (evaluated by 1000 replicates) are indicated along the branches. Genetic subgroups A1, A2a, A2b, B1, and B2, are indicated. Multiple sequence alignment was done using MAFFT and the ML phylogeny inferred using GTR + Γ nucleotide substitution model and ultrafast bootstrap approximation in IQ-TREE. The genotype B2 Sabana strain sequence (GenBank accession number HM197719) reported from a wild mountain gorilla in Rwanda is marked in blue. The scaled bar indicates nucleotide substitutions per site reactions, with reaction 1 containing primers for amplicons 1,3,5,7,9,11; reaction 2 containing primers for amplicons 2,4,6,8,10,12. Each reverse transcription used Forward Primer Mixes (FPMs) made with 3.0 μl of each reverse primer (100 pmol/μl) plus water to 200 μl to generate a primer concentration of 24 pmol/μl. Two microlitre of the FPM is then used in a 20 μl reverse transcription reaction (2.4 pmol/μl final concentration in reaction or 2.4 μM/primer). For PCR amplification, each amplicon reaction used a separate PCR Primer Mix (PPM) containing 1.5 μl of each 100 pmol/μl forward primer and 1.5 μl of each reverse primer (5.3-5.5 pmol/μl total primer in the PPM). 2 μl PPM was used per 25 μl PCR reaction = 0.5 pmol/μl in reaction (= 500 nM). Viral nucleic acids were extracted from the original samples using QIAamp Viral RNA Mini kit (QIAGEN). RNA (5 μl) was reverse transcribed into cDNA using SuperScript III (200 U, Invitrogen), RT buffer (1X final concentration, Invitrogen), and 2 μl of FPM in 20 μl reactions. An aliquot of cDNA (5 μl) was amplified in 35 cycles using Phusion Highfidelity PCR kit (New England Biolabs) and 2 μl of PPM in a 25 μl reaction. The PCR mixture was incubated at 98°C for 30 s, followed by 35 cycles of 98°C for 10 s, 43°C for 30 s, and 72°C for 90s and a final extension of 72°C for 10 min. Expected PCR products for each amplicon were approximately 1500 bp. PCR products from the two reactions for each sample were pooled for Illumina library preparation. Fig. 4 Mismatches between the rRT-PCR diagnostic primers and probes and their expected binding sites in the five genomes from Kenya and Zambia. 'Fwd primer' = Forward primer and 'Rev primer' = Reverse primer. Two rRT-PCR assays were used for HMPV detection. The colored bars in the figure indicate nucleotide differences (mismatches) between (a) three HMPV-A genomes and HMPV-A specific primers and probes targeting fusion gene, (b) two HMPV-B genomes and HMPV-B specific primers and probes also targeting fusion gene, and (c) all five genomes reported here and specific primers and probes targeting nucleoprotein gene. The sequences of the rRT-PCR primers and probes checked against the African HMPV genomes are listed in Additional file 7: Table S4 Illumina sequencing and data analysis Libraries were prepared using Nextera XT kit (Illumina) and pair-end sequencing (2 × 300 base pairs) with the MiSeq Reagent V3 kit (Illumina), following the manufacturer's instructions. The Nextera enzyme mix was used to simultaneously fragment input DNA and tag with universal adapters in a single tube reaction, followed by 12-cycle PCR reaction for dual indexing. Agencourt AMPure XP beads (Beckman Coulter) were used for all purification steps and libraries were quantified and quality-checked using the Qubit (Thermo Fisher) and Bioanalyzer (Agilent). Adapter trimming, quality filtering, kmer normalization of sequencing reads, de novo assembly, calculation of mean genome coverage was as previously described [31] . A dataset of HMPV genome sequences was retrieved from ViPR in order to infer relationship between HMPV viruses from Kenya and Zambia and viral populations sampled globally. The dataset included 138 sequence entries (> 13,000 nt) that included date (year) and location of sample Table S3 ). Sequence alignment was done using MAFFT v.7.221 [32] using the parameters 'localpair -maxiterate 1000'. IQ-TREE was used to infer maximum likelihood (ML) trees of the complete genome and individual genes under general time-reversible (GTR) substitution model with gamma-distributed among-site rate heterogeneity. A summary of the methodology outlined here is depicted in Fig. 5 .

What causes acute respiratory illness in young children?

Community-acquired pneumonia in children — a changing spectrum of disease https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608782/ SHA: eecb946b106a94f26a79a964f0160e8e16f79f42 Authors: le Roux, David M.; Zar, Heather J. Date: 2017-09-21 DOI: 10.1007/s00247-017-3827-8 License: cc-by Abstract: Pneumonia remains the leading cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, despite advances in prevention and management. Over the last 20 years, there has been a substantial decrease in the incidence of childhood pneumonia and pneumonia-associated mortality. New conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae have contributed to decreases in radiologic, clinical and complicated pneumonia cases and have reduced hospitalization and mortality. The importance of co-infections with multiple pathogens and the predominance of viral-associated disease are emerging. Better access to effective preventative and management strategies is needed in low- and middle-income countries, while new strategies are needed to address the residual burden of disease once these have been implemented. Text: Pneumonia has been the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years for decades. Although there have been substantial decreases in overall child mortality and in pneumonia-specific mortality, pneumonia remains the major single cause of death in children outside the neonatal period, causing approximately 900,000 of the estimated 6.3 million child deaths in 2013 [1] . Substantial advances have occurred in the understanding of risk factors and etiology of pneumonia, in development of standardized case definitions, and in prevention with the production of improved vaccines and in treatment. Such advances have led to changes in the epidemiology, etiology and mortality from childhood pneumonia. However in many areas access to these interventions remains sub-optimal, with large inequities between and within countries and regions. In this paper we review the impact of recent preventative and management advances in pneumonia epidemiology, etiology, radiologic presentation and outcome in children. The overall burden of childhood pneumonia has been reduced substantially over the last decade, despite an increase in the global childhood population from 605 million in 2000 to 664 million in 2015 [2] . Recent data suggest that there has been a 25% decrease in the incidence of pneumonia, from 0.29 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries in 2000, to 0.22 episodes per child year in 2010 [3] . This is substantiated by a 58% decrease in pneumonia-associated disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2013, from 186 million to 78 million as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study [1] . Pneumonia deaths decreased from 1.8 million in 2000 to 900,000 in 2013 [1] . These data do not reflect the full impact of increasingly widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in low-and middle-income countries because the incidence of pneumonia and number of deaths are likely to decrease still further as a result of this widespread intervention [4] . Notwithstanding this progress, there remains a disproportionate burden of disease in low-and middle-income countries, where more than 90% of pneumonia cases and deaths occur. The incidence in high-income countries is estimated at 0.015 episodes per child year, compared to 0.22 episodes per child year in low-and middle-income countries [3] . On average, 1 in 66 children in high-income countries is affected by pneumonia per year, compared to 1 in 5 children in low-and middle-income countries. Even within low-and middleincome countries there are regional inequities and challenges with access to health care services: up to 81% of severe pneumonia deaths occur outside a hospital [5] . In addition to a higher incidence of pneumonia, the case fatality rate is estimated to be almost 10-fold higher in low-and middle-income countries as compared to high-income countries [3, 5] . Childhood pneumonia can also lead to significant morbidity and chronic disease. Early life pneumonia can impair longterm lung health by decreasing lung function [6] . Severe or recurrent pneumonia can have a worse effect on lung function; increasing evidence suggests that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease might be related to early childhood pneumonia [7, 8] . A meta-analysis of the risk of long-term outcomes after childhood pneumonia categorized chronic respiratory sequelae into major (restrictive lung disease, obstructive lung disease, bronchiectasis) and minor (chronic bronchitis, asthma, abnormal pulmonary function) groups [9] . The risk of developing at least one of the major sequelae was estimated as 6% after an ambulatory pneumonia event and 14% after an episode of hospitalized pneumonia. Because respiratory diseases affect almost 1 billion people globally and are a major cause of mortality and morbidity [10] , childhood pneumonia might contribute to substantial morbidity across the life course. Chest radiologic changes have been considered the gold standard for defining a pneumonia event [11] because clinical findings can be subjective and clinical definitions of pneumonia can be nonspecific. In 2005, to aid in defining outcomes of pneumococcal vaccine studies, the World Health Organization's (WHO) standardized chest radiograph description defined a group of children who were considered most likely to have pneumococcal pneumonia [12] . The term "end-point consolidation" was described as a dense or fluffy opacity that occupies a portion or whole of a lobe, or the entire lung. "Other infiltrate" included linear and patchy densities, peribronchial thickening, minor patchy infiltrates that are not of sufficient magnitude to constitute primary end-point consolidation, and small areas of atelectasis that in children can be difficult to distinguish from consolidation. "Primary end-point pneumonia" included either end-point consolidation or a pleural effusion associated with a pulmonary parenchymal infiltrate (including "other" infiltrate). Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination has decreased the incidence of radiologic pneumonia. In a review of four randomized controlled trials and two case-control studies of Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination in high-burden communities, the vaccination was associated with an 18% decrease in radiologic pneumonia [13] . Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination was associated with a 26% decrease in radiologic pneumonia in California between 1995 and 1998 [14] . In vaccine efficacy trials in low-and middle-income countries, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduced radiologic pneumonia by 37% in the Gambia [15] , 25% in South Africa [16] and 26% in the Philippines [17] . The WHO radiologic case definition was not intended to distinguish bacterial from viral etiology but rather to define a sub-set of pneumonia cases in which pneumococcal infection was considered more likely and to provide a set of standardized definitions through which researchers could achieve broad agreement in reporting chest radiographs. However, despite widespread field utilization, there are concerns regarding inter-observer repeatability. There has been good consensus for the description of lobar consolidation but significant disagreement on the description of patchy and perihilar infiltrates [18, 19] . In addition, many children with clinically severe lung disease do not have primary end-point pneumonia: in one pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination study, only 34% of children hospitalized with pneumonia had primary end-point pneumonia [20] . A revised case definition of "presumed bacterial pneumonia" has been introduced, and this definition includes pneumonia cases with WHO-defined alveolar consolidation, as well as those with other abnormal chest radiograph infiltrates and a serum C-reactive protein of at least 40 mg/L [21, 22] . This definition has been shown to have greater sensitivity than the original WHO radiologic definition of primary end-point pneumonia for detecting the burden of pneumonia prevented by pneumococcal conjugate vaccination [23] . Using the revised definition, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-10), had a vaccine efficacy of 22% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in young children in South America [22] , and pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 had a vaccine efficacy of 39% in preventing presumed bacterial pneumonia in children older than 16 weeks who were not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in South Africa [21] . Thus there is convincing evidence that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination decreases the incidence of radiologic pneumonia; however there is no evidence to suggest that pneumococcal conjugate vaccination modifies the radiologic appearance of pneumococcal pneumonia. Empyema is a rare complication of pneumonia. An increased incidence of empyema in children was noted in some high-income countries following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 introduction, and this was attributed to pneumococcal serotypes not included in pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, especially 3 and 19A [24] . In the United States, evidence from a national hospital database suggests that the incidence of empyema increased 1.9-fold between 1996 and 2008 [25] . In Australia, the incidence rate ratio increased by 1.4 times when comparing the pre-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (1998 to 2004) to the post-pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 period (2005 to 2010) [26] . In Scotland, incidence of empyema in children rose from 6.5 per million between 1981 and 1998, to 66 per million in 2005 [27] . These trends have been reversed since the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13. Data from the United States suggest that empyema decreased by 50% in children younger than 5 years [28] ; similarly, data from the United Kingdom and Scotland showed substantial reduction in pediatric empyema following pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 introduction [29, 30] . Several national guidelines from high-income countries, as well as the WHO recommendations for low-and middleincome countries, recommend that chest radiography should not be routinely performed in children with ambulatory pneumonia [31] [32] [33] . Indications for chest radiography include hospitalization, severe hypoxemia or respiratory distress, failed initial antibiotic therapy, or suspicion for other diseases (tuberculosis, inhaled foreign body) or complications. However, point-of-care lung ultrasound is emerging as a promising modality for diagnosing childhood pneumonia [34] . In addition to the effect on radiologic pneumonia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination reduces the risk of hospitalization from viral-associated pneumonia, probably by reducing bacterial-viral co-infections resulting in severe disease and hospitalization [35] . An analysis of ecological and observational studies of pneumonia incidence in different age groups soon after introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7 in Canada, Italy, Australia, Poland and the United States showed decreases in all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations ranging from 15% to 65% [36] . In the United States after pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-13 replaced pneumococcal conjugate vaccination-7, there was a further 17% decrease in hospitalizations for pneumonia among children eligible for the vaccination, and a further 12% decrease among unvaccinated adults [28] . A systematic review of etiology studies prior to availability of new conjugate vaccines confirmed S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type B as the most important bacterial causes of pneumonia, with Staphylococcus aureus and Klebsiella pneumoniae associated with some severe cases. Respiratory syncytial virus was the leading viral cause, identified in 15-40% of pneumonia cases, followed by influenza A and B, parainfluenza, human metapneumovirus and adenovirus [37] . More recent meta-analyses of etiology data suggest a changing pathogen profile, with increasing recognition that clinical pneumonia is caused by the sequential or concurrent interaction of more than one organism. Severe disease in particular is often caused by multiple pathogens. With high coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination, viral pathogens increasingly predominate [38] . In recent case-control studies, at least one virus was detected in 87% of clinical pneumonia cases in South Africa [39] , while viruses were detected in 81% of radiologic pneumonia cases in Sweden [40] . In a large multi-center study in the United States, viral pathogens were detected in 73% of children hospitalized with radiologic pneumonia, while bacteria were detected in only 15% of cases [41] . A meta-analysis of 23 case-control studies of viral etiology in radiologically confirmed pneumonia in children, completed up to 2014, reported good evidence of causal attribution for respiratory syncytial virus, influenza, metapneumovirus and parainfluenza virus [42] . However there was no consistent evidence that many other commonly described viruses, including rhinovirus, adenovirus, bocavirus and coronavirus, were more commonly isolated from cases than from controls. Further attribution of bacterial etiology is difficult because it is often not possible to distinguish colonizing from pathogenic bacteria when they are isolated from nasal specimens [43] . Another etiology is pertussis. In the last decade there has also been a resurgence in pertussis cases, especially in highincome countries [44] . Because pertussis immunity after acellular pertussis vaccination is less long-lasting than immunity after wild-type infection or whole-cell vaccination, many women of child-bearing age have waning pertussis antibody levels. Their infants might therefore be born with low transplacental anti-pertussis immunoglobulin G levels, making them susceptible to pertussis infection before completion of the primary vaccination series [45] . In 2014, more than 40,000 pertussis cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States; in some states, population-based incidence rates are higher than at any time in the last 70 years [44] . In contrast, most low-and middleincome countries use whole-cell pertussis vaccines and the numbers of pertussis cases in those countries were stable or decreasing until 2015 [46] . However recent evidence from South Africa (where the acellular vaccine is used) shows an appreciable incidence of pertussis among infants presenting with acute pneumonia: 2% of clinical pneumonia cases among infants enrolled in a birth cohort were caused by pertussis [39] , and 3.7% of infants and young children presenting to a tertiary academic hospital had evidence of pertussis infection [47] . Similarly, childhood tuberculosis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in many low-and middle-income countries, and Mycobacterium tuberculosis has increasingly been recognized as a pathogen in acute pneumonia in children living in high tuberculosis-prevalence settings. Postmortem studies of children dying from acute respiratory illness have commonly reported M. tuberculosis [48, 49] . A recent systematic review of tuberculosis as a comorbidity of childhood pneumonia reported culture-confirmed disease in about 8% of cases [50] . Because intrathoracic tuberculosis disease is only culture-confirmed in a minority of cases, the true burden could be even higher; tuberculosis could therefore be an important contributor to childhood pneumonia incidence and mortality in high-prevalence areas. Childhood pneumonia and clinically severe disease result from a complex interaction of host and environmental risk factors [37] . Because of the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination for prevention of radiologic and clinical pneumonia, incomplete or inadequate vaccination must be considered as a major preventable risk factor for childhood pneumonia. Other risk factors include low birth weight, which is associated with 3.2 times increased odds of severe pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, and 1.8 times increased odds in high-income countries [51] . Similarly, lack of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4 months of life increases odds of severe pneumonia by 2.7 times in low-and middle-income countries and 1.3 times in highincome countries. Markers of undernutrition are strong risk factors for pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries only, with highly significant odds ratios for underweight for age (4.5), stunting (2.6) and wasting (2.8) . Household crowding has uniform risk, with odds ratios between 1.9 and 2.3 in both low-and middle-income countries and high-income countries. Indoor air pollution from use of solid or biomass fuels increases odds of pneumonia by 1.6 times; lack of measles vaccination by the end of the first year of age increases odds of pneumonia by 1.8 times [51] . It is estimated that the prevalence of these critical risk factors in low-and middle-income countries decreased by 25% between 2000 and 2010, contributing to reductions in pneumonia incidence and mortality in low-and middle-income countries, even in countries where conjugate vaccines have not been available [3] . The single strongest risk factor for pneumonia is HIV infection, which is especially prevalent in children in sub-Saharan Africa. HIV-infected children have 6 times increased odds of developing severe pneumonia or of death compared to HIV-uninfected children [52] . Since the effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, there is a growing population of HIV-exposed children who are uninfected; their excess risk of pneumonia, compared to HIV unexposed children, has been described as 1.3-to 3.4-fold higher [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] . The pneumococcal conjugate vaccination and Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination have been effective tools to decrease pneumonia incidence, severity and mortality [58, 59] . However, equitable coverage and access to vaccines remains sub-optimal. By the end of 2015, Haemophilus influenzae type B conjugate vaccination had been introduced in 73 countries, with global coverage estimated at 68%. However, inequities are still apparent among regions: in the Americas coverage is estimated at 90%, while in the Western Pacific it is only 25%. By 2015, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination had been introduced into 54 countries, with global coverage of 35% for three doses of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination for infant populations [60] . To address this issue, the WHO's Global Vaccine Access Plan initiative was launched to make life-saving vaccines more equitably available. In addition to securing guarantees for financing of vaccines, the program objectives include building political will in low-and middle-income countries to commit to immunization as a priority, social marketing to individuals and communities, strengthening health systems and promoting relevant local research and development innovations [61] . Maternal vaccination to prevent disease in the youngest infants has been shown to be effective for tetanus, influenza and pertussis [62] . Influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe, provides reasonable maternal protection against influenza, and also protects infants for a limited period from confirmed influenza infection (vaccine efficacy 63% in Bangladesh [63] and 50.4% in South Africa [64] ). However as antibody levels drop sharply after birth, infant protection does not persist much beyond 8 weeks [65] . Recently respiratory syncytial virus vaccination in pregnancy has been shown to be safe and immunogenic, and a phase-3 clinical trial of efficacy at preventing respiratory syncytial virus disease in infants is under way [66] . Within a decade, respiratory syncytial virus in infancy might be vaccine-preventable, with further decreases in pneumonia incidence, morbidity and mortality [67] . Improved access to health care, better nutrition and improved living conditions might contribute to further decreases in childhood pneumonia burden. The WHO Integrated Global Action Plan for diarrhea and pneumonia highlights many opportunities to protect, prevent and treat children [68] . Breastfeeding rates can be improved by programs that combine education and counseling interventions in homes, communities and health facilities, and by promotion of baby-friendly hospitals [69] . Improved home ventilation, cleaner cooking fuels and reduction in exposure to cigarette smoke are essential interventions to reduce the incidence and severity of pneumonia [70, 71] . Prevention of pediatric HIV is possible by providing interventions to prevent mother-to-child transmission [72] . Early infant HIV testing and early initiation of antiretroviral therapy and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis can substantially reduce the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among HIV-infected children [73] . Community-based interventions reduce pneumonia mortality and have the indirect effect of improved-careseeking behavior [58] . If these cost-effective interventions were scaled up, it is estimated that 67% of pneumonia deaths in lowand middle-income countries could be prevented by 2025 [58] . Case management of pneumonia is a strategy by which severity of disease is classified as severe or non-severe. All children receive early, appropriate oral antibiotics, and severe cases are referred for parenteral antibiotics. When implemented in highburden areas before the availability of conjugate vaccines, case management as part of Integrated Management of Childhood Illness was associated with a 27% decrease in overall child mortality, and 42% decrease in pneumonia-specific mortality [74] . However the predominance of viral causes of pneumonia and low case fatality have prompted concern about overuse of antibiotics. Several randomized controlled trials comparing oral antibiotics to placebo for non-severe pneumonia have been performed [75] [76] [77] and others are ongoing [78] . In two studies, performed in Denmark and in India, outcomes of antibiotic and placebo treatments were equivalent [76, 77] . In the third study, in Pakistan, there was a non-significant 24% vs. 20% rate of failure in the placebo group, which was deemed to be non-equivalent to the antibiotic group [75] . Furthermore, because WHO-classified non-severe pneumonia and bronchiolitis might be considered within a spectrum of lower respiratory disease, many children with clinical pneumonia could actually have viral bronchiolitis, for which antibiotics are not beneficial [79] . This has been reflected in British [33] and Spanish [31] national pneumonia guidelines, which do not recommend routine antibiotic treatment for children younger than 2 years with evidence of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination who present with non-severe pneumonia. The United States' national guidelines recommend withholding antibiotics in children up to age 5 years presenting with non-severe pneumonia [32] . However, given the high mortality from pneumonia in low-and middle-income countries, the lack of easy access to care, and the high prevalence of risk factors for severe disease, revised World Health Organization pneumonia guidelines still recommend antibiotic treatment for all children who meet the WHO pneumonia case definitions [80] . Use of supplemental oxygen is life-saving, but this is not universally available in low-and middle-income countries; it is estimated that use of supplemental oxygen systems could reduce mortality of children with hypoxic pneumonia by 20% [81] . Identifying systems capacity to increase availability of oxygen in health facilities, and identifying barriers to further implementation are among the top 15 priorities for future childhood pneumonia research [82] . However, up to 81% of pneumonia deaths in 2010 occurred outside health facilities [5] , so there are major challenges with access to health services and health-seeking behavior of vulnerable populations. Identifying and changing the barriers to accessing health care is an important area with the potential to impact the survival and health of the most vulnerable children [82] . Much progress has been made in decreasing deaths caused by childhood pneumonia. Improved socioeconomic status and vaccinations, primarily the conjugate vaccines (against Haemophilus influenzae and pneumococcus), have led to substantial reductions in the incidence and severity of childhood pneumonia. Stronger strategies to prevent and manage HIV have reduced HIV-associated pneumonia deaths. However, despite the substantial changes in incidence, etiology and radiology globally, there remain inequities in access to care and availability of effective interventions, especially in low-and middle-income countries. Effective interventions need to be more widely available and new interventions developed for the residual burden of childhood pneumonia.

What pneumonia related or chest conditions indicate the need for child radiography?

Potential Rapid Diagnostics, Vaccine and Therapeutics for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): A Systematic Review https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030623 SHA: 9b0c87f808b1b66f2937d7a7acb524a756b6113b Authors: Pang, Junxiong; Wang, Min Xian; Ang, Ian Yi Han; Tan, Sharon Hui Xuan; Lewis, Ruth Frances; Chen, Jacinta I. Pei; Gutierrez, Ramona A.; Gwee, Sylvia Xiao Wei; Chua, Pearleen Ee Yong; Yang, Qian; Ng, Xian Yi; Yap, Rowena K. S.; Tan, Hao Yi; Teo, Yik Ying; Tan, Chorh Chuan; Cook, Alex R.; Yap, Jason Chin-Huat; Hsu, Li Yang Date: 2020 DOI: 10.3390/jcm9030623 License: cc-by Abstract: Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are important interventions for the management of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak. It is timely to systematically review the potential of these interventions, including those for Middle East respiratory syndrome-Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV, to guide policymakers globally on their prioritization of resources for research and development. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Supplementary strategies through Google Search and personal communications were used. A total of 27 studies fulfilled the criteria for review. Several laboratory protocols for confirmation of suspected 2019-nCoV cases using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) have been published. A commercial RT-PCR kit developed by the Beijing Genomic Institute is currently widely used in China and likely in Asia. However, serological assays as well as point-of-care testing kits have not been developed but are likely in the near future. Several vaccine candidates are in the pipeline. The likely earliest Phase 1 vaccine trial is a synthetic DNA-based candidate. A number of novel compounds as well as therapeutics licensed for other conditions appear to have in vitro efficacy against the 2019-nCoV. Some are being tested in clinical trials against MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, while others have been listed for clinical trials against 2019-nCoV. However, there are currently no effective specific antivirals or drug combinations supported by high-level evidence. Text: Since mid-December 2019 and as of early February 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating from Wuhan (Hubei Province, China) has infected over 25,000 laboratory-confirmed cases across 28 countries with about 500 deaths (a case-fatality rate of about 2%). More than 90% of the cases and deaths were in China [1] . Based on the initial reported surge of cases in Wuhan, the majority were males with a median age of 55 years and linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market [2] . Most of the reported cases had similar symptoms at the onset of illness such as fever, cough, and myalgia or fatigue. Most cases developed pneumonia and some severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome [3] . The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), a betacoronavirus, forms a clade within the subgenus sarbecovirus of the Orthocoronavirinae subfamily [4] . The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are also betacoronaviruses that are zoonotic in origin and have been linked to potential fatal illness during the outbreaks in 2003 and 2012, respectively [5, 6] . Based on current evidence, pathogenicity for 2019-nCoV is about 3%, which is significantly lower than SARS-CoV (10%) and MERS-CoV (40%) [7] . However, 2019-nCoV has potentially higher transmissibility (R0: 1.4-5.5) than both SARS-CoV (R0: [2] [3] [4] [5] and MERS-CoV (R0: <1) [7] . With the possible expansion of 2019-nCoV globally [8] and the declaration of the 2019-nCoV outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, there is an urgent need for rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics to detect, prevent and contain 2019-nCoV promptly. There is however currently a lack of understanding of what is available in the early phase of 2019-nCoV outbreak. The systematic review describes and assesses the potential rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for 2019-nCoV, based in part on the developments for MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. A systematic search was carried out in three major electronic databases (PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library) to identify published studies examining the diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. There were two independent reviewers each focusing on SARS, MERS, and 2019-nCoV, respectively. A third independent reviewer was engaged to resolve any conflicting article of interest. We used the key words "SARS", "coronavirus", "MERS", "2019 Novel coronavirus", "Wuhan virus" to identify the diseases in the search strategy. The systematic searches for diagnosis, therapeutic drugs and vaccines were carried out independently and the key words "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "diagnosis", "point of care testing" and "rapid diagnostic test" were used in conjunction with the disease key words for the respective searches. Examples of search strings can be found in Table S1 . We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and validation trials (for diagnostics test) published in English, that measured (a) the sensitivity and/or specificity of a rapid diagnostic test or a point-of-care testing kit, (b) the impact of drug therapy or (c) vaccine efficacy against either of these diseases with no date restriction applied. For the 2019-nCoV, we searched for all in vitro, animal, or human studies published in English between 1 December 2019 and 6 February 2020, on the same outcomes of interest. In addition, we reviewed the references of retrieved articles in order to identify additional studies or reports not retrieved by the initial searches. Studies that examined the mechanisms of diagnostic tests, drug therapy or vaccine efficacy against SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV were excluded. A Google search for 2019-nCoV diagnostics (as of 6 February 2020; Table S2 ) yielded five webpage links from government and international bodies with official information and guidelines (WHO, Europe CDC, US CDC, US FDA), three webpage links on diagnostic protocols and scientific commentaries, and five webpage links on market news and press releases. Six protocols for diagnostics using reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) from six countries were published on WHO's website [9] . Google search for 2019-nCoV vaccines yielded 19 relevant articles. With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, real time RT-PCR remains the primary means for diagnosing the new virus strain among the many diagnostic platforms available ( [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] ; Table S3 ). Among the 16 diagnostics studies selected, one study discussed the use of RT-PCR in diagnosing patients with 2019-nCoV [11] ( Table 1 ). The period and type of specimen collected for RT-PCR play an important role in the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV. It was found that the respiratory specimens were positive for the virus while serum was negative in the early period. It has also suggested that in the early days of illness, patients have high levels of virus despite the mild symptoms. Apart from the commonly used RT-PCR in diagnosing MERS-CoV, four studies identified various diagnostic methods such as reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP), RT-insulated isothermal PCR (RT-iiPCR) and a one-step rRT-PCR assay based on specific TaqMan probes. RT-LAMP has similar sensitivity as real time RT-PCR. It is also highly specific and is used to detect MERS-CoV. It is comparable to the usual diagnostic tests and is rapid, simple and convenient. Likewise, RT-iiPCR and a one-step rRT-PCR assay have also shown similar sensitivity and high specificity for MER-CoV. Lastly, one study focused on the validation of the six commercial real RT-PCR kits, with high accuracy. Although real time RT-PCR is a primary method for diagnosing MERS-CoV, high levels of PCR inhibition may hinder PCR sensitivity (Table 1) . There are eleven studies that focus on SARS-CoV diagnostic testing (Table 1) . These papers described diagnostic methods to detect the virus with the majority of them using molecular testing for diagnosis. Comparison between the molecular test (i.e RT-PCR) and serological test (i.e., ELISA) showed that the molecular test has better sensitivity and specificity. Hence, enhancements to the current molecular test were conducted to improve the diagnosis. Studies looked at using nested PCR to include a pre-amplification step or incorporating N gene as an additional sensitive molecular marker to improve on the sensitivity (Table 1 ). In addition, there are seven potential rapid diagnostic kits (as of 24 January 2020; Table 2 ) available on the market for 2019-nCoV. Six of these are only for research purposes. Only one kit from Beijing Genome Institute (BGI) is approved for use in the clinical setting for rapid diagnosis. Most of the kits are for RT-PCR. There were two kits (BGI, China and Veredus, Singapore) with the capability to detect multiple pathogens using sequencing and microarray technologies, respectively. The limit of detection of the enhanced realtime PCR method was 10 2 -fold higher than the standard real-time PCR assay and 10 7fold higher than conventional PCR methods In the clinical aspect, the enhanced realtime PCR method was able to detect 6 cases of SARS-CoV positive samples that were not confirmed by any other assay [25] • The real time PCR has a threshold sensitivity of 10 genome equivalents per reaction and it has a good reproducibility with the inter-assay coefficients of variation of 1.73 to 2.72%. • 13 specimens from 6 patients were positive with viral load range from 362 to 36,240,000 genome equivalents/mL. The real-time RT-PCR reaction was more sensitive than the nested PCR reaction, as the detection limit for the nested PCR reaction was about 10 3 genome equivalents in the standard cDNA control. [34] Real-time reverse-transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp); open reading frame 1a (ORF1a); Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP); enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); immunofluorescent assay (IFA); immunochromatographic test (ICT); nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA). With the emergence of 2019-nCoV, there are about 15 potential vaccine candidates in the pipeline globally (Table 3 ), in which a wide range of technology (such as messenger RNA, DNA-based, nanoparticle, synthetic and modified virus-like particle) was applied. It will likely take about a year for most candidates to start phase 1 clinical trials except for those funded by Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). However, the kit developed by the BGI have passed emergency approval procedure of the National Medical Products Administration, and are currently used in clinical and surveillance centers of China [40] . Of the total of 570 unique studies on 2019-nCoV, SARS CoV or MERS-CoV vaccines screened, only four were eventually included in the review. Most studies on SARS and MERS vaccines were excluded as they were performed in cell or animal models ( Figure 1 ). The four studies included in this review were Phase I clinical trials on SARS or MERS vaccines (Table 4 ) [44] [45] [46] [47] . There were no studies of any population type (cell, animal, human) on the 2019-nCoV at the point of screening. The published clinical trials were mostly done in United States except for one on the SARS vaccine done in China [44] . All vaccine candidates for SARS and MERS were reported to be safe, well-tolerated and able to trigger the relevant and appropriate immune responses in the participants. In addition, we highlight six ongoing Phase I clinical trials identified in the ClinicalTrials.gov register ( [48, 49] ); Table S4 ) [50] [51] [52] . These trials are all testing the safety and immunogenicity of their respective MERS-CoV vaccine candidates but were excluded as there are no results published yet. The trials are projected to complete in December 2020 (two studies in Russia [50, 51] ) and December 2021 (in Germany [52] ). Existing literature search did not return any results on completed 2019-nCoV trials at the time of writing. Among 23 trials found from the systematic review (Table 5) , there are nine clinical trials registered under the clinical trials registry (ClinicalTrials.gov) for 2019-nCoV therapeutics [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] . Of which five studies on hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir plus ritonavir and arbidol, mesenchymal stem cells, traditional Chinese medicine and glucocorticoid therapy usage have commenced recruitment. The remaining four studies encompass investigation of antivirals, interferon atomization, darunavir and cobicistat, arbidol, and remdesivir usage for 2019-nCoV patients (Table 5) . Seroconversion measured by S1-ELISA occurred in 86% and 94% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively, and was maintained in 79% participants up to study end at week 60. Neutralising antibodies were detected in 50% participants at one or more time points during the study, but only 3% maintained neutralisation activity to end of study. T-cell responses were detected in 71% and 76% participants after 2 and 3 doses, respectively. There were no differences in immune responses between dose groups after 6 weeks and vaccine-induced humoral and cellular responses were respectively detected in 77% and 64% participants at week 60. [47] Molecules developed by the university scientists inhibit two coronavirus enzymes and prevent its replication. The discovered drug targets are said to be more than 95% similar to enzyme targets found on the SARS virus. Researchers note that identified drugs may not be available to address the ongoing outbreak but they hope to make it accessible for future outbreaks. [85] Besides the six completed randomized controlled trials (RCT) selected from the systematic review (Table 6) , there is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at SARS therapeutics [92] . The studies found from ClinicalTrials.gov have not been updated since 2013. While many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir or ribavirin only, there has yet to be well-designed clinical trials investigating their usage. Three completed randomized controlled trials were conducted during the SARS epidemic-3 in China, 1 in Taiwan and 2 in Hong Kong [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] . The studies respectively investigated antibiotic usage involving 190 participants, combination of western and Chinese treatment vs. Chinese treatment in 123 participants, integrative Chinese and Western treatment in 49 patients, usage of a specific Chinese medicine in four participants and early use of corticosteroid in 16 participants. Another notable study was an open non-randomized study investigating ribavirin/lopinavir/ritonavir usage in 152 participants [98] . One randomized controlled trial investigating integrative western and Chinese treatment during the SARS epidemic was excluded as it was a Chinese article [94] . There is only one ongoing randomized controlled trial targeted at MERS therapeutics [99] . It investigates the usage of Lopinavir/Ritonavir and Interferon Beta 1B. Likewise, many prospective and retrospective cohort studies conducted during the epidemic centered on usage of ribavirin with lopinavir/ritonavir/ribavirin, interferon, and convalescent plasma usage. To date, only one trial has been completed. One phase 1 clinical trial investigating the safety and tolerability of a fully human polyclonal IgG immunoglobulin (SAB-301) was found in available literature [46] . The trial conducted in the United States in 2017 demonstrated SAB-301 to be safe and well-tolerated at single doses. Another trial on MERS therapeutics was found on ClinicalTrials.gov-a phase 2/3 trial in the United States evaluating the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK), and immunogenicity on coadministered MERS-CoV antibodies REGN3048 & REGN3051 [100]. Rapid diagnostics plays an important role in disease and outbreak management. The fast and accurate diagnosis of a specific viral infection enables prompt and accurate public health surveillance, prevention and control measures. Local transmission and clusters can be prevented or delayed by isolation of laboratory-confirmed cases and their close contacts quarantined and monitored at home. Rapid diagnostic also facilitates other specific public health interventions such as closure of high-risk facilities and areas associated with the confirmed cases for prompt infection control and environmental decontamination [11, 101] . Laboratory diagnosis can be performed by: (a) detecting the genetic material of the virus, (b) detecting the antibodies that neutralize the viral particles of interest, (c) detecting the viral epitopes of interest with antibodies (serological testing), or (d) culture and isolation of viable virus particles. The key limitations of genetic material detection are the lack of knowledge of the presence of viable virus, the potential cross-reactivity with non-specific genetic regions and the short timeframe for accurate detection during the acute infection phase. The key limitations of serological testing is the need to collect paired serum samples (in the acute and convalescent phases) from cases under investigation for confirmation to eliminate potential cross-reactivity from non-specific antibodies from past exposure and/or infection by other coronaviruses. The limitation of virus culture and isolation is the long duration and the highly specialized skills required of the technicians to process the samples. All patients recovered. Significantly shorted time from the disease onset to the symptom improvement in treatment (5.10 ± 2.83 days) compared to control group (7.62 ± 2.27 days) (p < 0.05) No significant difference in blood routine improvement, pulmonary chest shadow in chest film improvement and corticosteroid usgae between the 2 groups. However, particularly in the respect of improving clinical symptoms, elevating quality of life, promoting immune function recovery, promoting absorption of pulmonary inflammation, reducing the dosage of cortisteroid and shortening the therapeutic course, treatment with integrative chinese and western medicine treatment had obvious superiority compared with using control treatment alone. Single infusions of SAB-301 up to 50 mg/kg appear to be safe and well-tolerated in healthy participants. [46] Where the biological samples are taken from also play a role in the sensitivity of these tests. For SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, specimens collected from the lower respiratory tract such as sputum and tracheal aspirates have higher and more prolonged levels of viral RNA because of the tropism of the virus. MERS-CoV viral loads are also higher for severe cases and have longer viral shedding compared to mild cases. Although upper respiratory tract specimens such as nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs can be used, they have potentially lower viral loads and may have higher risk of false-negatives among the mild MERS and SARS cases [102, 103] , and likely among the 2019-nCoV cases. The existing practices in detecting genetic material of coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV include (a) reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), (b) real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR), (c) reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) and (d) real-time RT-LAMP [104] . Nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are usually preferred as in the case of MERS-CoV diagnosis as it has the highest sensitivity at the earliest time point in the acute phase of infection [102] . Chinese health authorities have recently posted the full genome of 2019-nCoV in the GenBank and in GISAID portal to facilitate in the detection of the virus [11] . Several laboratory assays have been developed to detect the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, as highlighted in WHO's interim guidance on nCoV laboratory testing of suspected cases. These include protocols from other countries such as Thailand, Japan and China [105] . The first validated diagnostic test was designed in Germany. Corman et al. had initially designed a candidate diagnostic RT-PCR assay based on the SARS or SARS-related coronavirus as it was suggested that circulating virus was SARS-like. Upon the release of the sequence, assays were selected based on the match against 2019-nCoV upon inspection of the sequence alignment. Two assays were used for the RNA dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP) gene and E gene where E gene assay acts as the first-line screening tool and RdRp gene assay as the confirmatory testing. All assays were highly sensitive and specific in that they did not cross-react with other coronavirus and also human clinical samples that contained respiratory viruses [11] . The Hong Kong University used two monoplex assays which were reactive with coronaviruses under the subgenus Sarbecovirus (consisting of 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV and SARS-like coronavirus). Viral RNA extracted from SARS-CoV can be used as the positive control for the suggested protocol assuming that SARS has been eradicated. It is proposed that the N gene RT-PCR can be used as a screening assay while the Orf1b assay acts as a confirmatory test. However, this protocol has only been evaluated with a panel of controls with the only positive control SARS-CoV RNA. Synthetic oligonucleotide positive control or 2019-nCoV have yet to be tested [106] . The US CDC shared the protocol on the real time RT-PCR assay for the detection of the 2019-nCoV with the primers and probes designed for the universal detection of SARS-like coronavirus and the specific detection of 2019-nCoV. However, the protocol has not been validated on other platforms or chemistries apart from the protocol described. There are some limitations for the assay. Analysts engaged have to be trained and familiar with the testing procedure and result interpretation. False negative results may occur due to insufficient organisms in the specimen resulting from improper collection, transportation or handling. Also, RNA viruses may show substantial genetic variability. This could result in mismatch between the primer and probes with the target sequence which can diminish the assay performance or result in false negative results [107] . Point-of-care test kit can potentially minimize these limitations, which should be highly prioritized for research and development in the next few months. Serological testing such as ELISA, IIFT and neutralization tests are effective in determining the extent of infection, including estimating asymptomatic and attack rate. Compared to the detection of viral genome through molecular methods, serological testing detects antibodies and antigens. There would be a lag period as antibodies specifically targeting the virus would normally appear between 14 and 28 days after the illness onset [108] . Furthermore, studies suggest that low antibody titers in the second week or delayed antibody production could be associated with mortality with a high viral load. Hence, serological diagnoses are likely used when nucleic amplification tests (NAAT) are not available or accessible [102] . Vaccines can prevent and protect against infection and disease occurrence when exposed to the specific pathogen of interest, especially in vulnerable populations who are more prone to severe outcomes. In the context of the current 2019-nCoV outbreak, vaccines will help control and reduce disease transmission by creating herd immunity in addition to protecting healthy individuals from infection. This decreases the effective R0 value of the disease. Nonetheless, there are social, clinical and economic hurdles for vaccine and vaccination programmes, including (a) the willingness of the public to undergo vaccination with a novel vaccine, (b) the side effects and severe adverse reactions of vaccination, (c) the potential difference and/or low efficacy of the vaccine in populations different from the clinical trials' populations and (d) the accessibility of the vaccines to a given population (including the cost and availability of the vaccine). Vaccines against the 2019-nCoV are currently in development and none are in testing (at the time of writing). On 23 January 2020, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) announced that they will fund vaccine development programmes with Inovio, The University of Queensland and Moderna, Inc respectively, with the aim to test the experimental vaccines clinically in 16 weeks (By June 2020). The vaccine candidates will be developed by the DNA, recombinant and mRNA vaccine platforms from these organizations [109] . Based on the most recent MERS-CoV outbreak, there are already a number of vaccine candidates being developed but most are still in the preclinical testing stage. The vaccines in development include viral vector-based vaccine, DNA vaccine, subunit vaccine, virus-like particles (VLPs)-based vaccine, inactivated whole-virus (IWV) vaccine and live attenuated vaccine. The latest findings for these vaccines arebased on the review by Yong et al. (2019) in August 2019 [110] . As of the date of reporting, there is only one published clinical study on the MERS-CoV vaccine by GeneOne Life Science & Inovio Pharmaceuticals [47] . There was one SARS vaccine trial conducted by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Both Phase I clinical trials reported positive results, but only one has announced plans to proceed to Phase 2 trial [111] . Due to the close genetic relatedness of SARS-CoV (79%) with 2019-nCoV [112] , there may be potential cross-protective effect of using a safe SARS-CoV vaccine while awaiting the 2019-nCoV vaccine. However, this would require small scale phase-by-phase implementation and close monitoring of vaccinees before any large scale implementation. Apart from the timely diagnosis of cases, the achievement of favorable clinical outcomes depends on the timely treatment administered. ACE2 has been reported to be the same cell entry receptor used by 2019-nCoV to infect humans as SARS-CoV [113] . Hence, clinical similarity between the two viruses is expected, particularly in severe cases. In addition, most of those who have died from MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV were advance in age and had underlying health conditions such as hypertension, diabetes or cardiovascular disease that compromised their immune systems [114] . Coronaviruses have error-prone RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRP), which result in frequent mutations and recombination events. This results in quasispecies diversity that is closely associated with adaptive evolution and the capacity to enhance viral-cell entry to cause disease over time in a specific population at-risk [115] . Since ACE2 is abundantly present in humans in the epithelia of the lung and small intestine, coronaviruses are likely to infect the upper respiratory and gastrointestinal tract and this may influence the type of therapeutics against 2019-nCoV, similarly to SAR-CoV. However, in the years following two major coronavirus outbreaks SARS-CoV in 2003 and MERS-CoV in 2012, there remains no consensus on the optimal therapy for either disease [116, 117] . Well-designed clinical trials that provide the gold standard for assessing the therapeutic measures are scarce. No coronavirus protease inhibitors have successfully completed a preclinical development program despite large efforts exploring SARS-CoV inhibitors. The bulk of potential therapeutic strategies remain in the experimental phase, with only a handful crossing the in vitro hurdle. Stronger efforts are required in the research for treatment options for major coronaviruses given their pandemic potential. Effective treatment options are essential to maximize the restoration of affected populations to good health following infections. Clinical trials have commenced in China to identify effective treatments for 2019-nCoV based on the treatment evidence from SARS and MERS. There is currently no effective specific antiviral with high-level evidence; any specific antiviral therapy should be provided in the context of a clinical study/trial. Few treatments have shown real curative action against SARS and MERS and the literature generally describes isolated cases or small case series. Many interferons from the three classes have been tested for their antiviral activities against SARS-CoV both in vitro and in animal models. Interferon β has consistently been shown to be the most active, followed by interferon α. The use of corticosteroids with interferon alfacon-1 (synthetic interferon α) appeared to have improved oxygenation and faster resolution of chest radiograph abnormalities in observational studies with untreated controls. Interferon has been used in multiple observational studies to treat SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV patients [116, 117] . Interferons, with or without ribavirin, and lopinavir/ritonavir are most likely to be beneficial and are being trialed in China for 2019-nCoV. This drug treatment appears to be the most advanced. Timing of treatment is likely an important factor in effectiveness. A combination of ribavirin and lopinavir/ritonavir was used as a post-exposure prophylaxis in health care workers and may have reduced the risk of infection. Ribavirin alone is unlikely to have substantial antiviral activities at clinically used dosages. Hence, ribavirin with or without corticosteroids and with lopinavir and ritonavir are among the combinations employed. This was the most common agent reported in the available literature. Its efficacy has been assessed in observational studies, retrospective case series, retrospective cohort study, a prospective observational study, a prospective cohort study and randomized controlled trial ranging from seven to 229 participants [117] . Lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra) was the earliest protease inhibitor combination introduced for the treatment of SARS-CoV. Its efficacy was documented in several studies, causing notably lower incidence of adverse outcomes than with ribavirin alone. Combined usage with ribavirin was also associated with lower incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection and death, amongst other favorable outcomes. Recent in vitro studies have shown another HIV protease inhibitor, nelfinavir, to have antiviral capacity against SARS-CoV, although it has yet to show favorable outcomes in animal studies [118] . Remdesivir (Gilead Sciences, GS-5734) nucleoside analogue in vitro and in vivo data support GS-5734 development as a potential pan-coronavirus antiviral based on results against several coronaviruses (CoVs), including highly pathogenic CoVs and potentially emergent BatCoVs. The use of remdesivir may be a good candidate as an investigational treatment. Improved mortality following receipt of convalescent plasma in various doses was consistently reported in several observational studies involving cases with severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs) of viral etiology. A significant reduction in the pooled odds of mortality following treatment of 0.25 compared to placebo or no therapy was observed [119] . Studies were however at moderate to high risk of bias given their small sample sizes, allocation of treatment based on the physician's discretion, and the availability of plasma. Factors like concomitant treatment may have also confounded the results. Associations between convalescent plasma and hospital length of stay, viral antibody levels, and viral load respectively were similarly inconsistent across available literature. Convalescent plasma, while promising, is likely not yet feasible, given the limited pool of potential donors and issues of scalability. Monoclonal antibody treatment is progressing. SARS-CoV enters host cells through the binding of their spike (S) protein to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and CD209L [118] . Human monoclonal antibodies to the S protein have been shown to significantly reduce the severity of lung pathology in non-human primates following MERS-CoV infection [120] . Such neutralizing antibodies can be elicited by active or passive immunization using vaccines or convalescent plasma respectively. While such neutralizing antibodies can theoretically be harvested from individuals immunized with vaccines, there is uncertainty over the achievement of therapeutic levels of antibodies. Other therapeutic agents have also been reported. A known antimalarial agent, chloroquine, elicits antiviral effects against multiple viruses including HIV type 1, hepatitis B and HCoV-229E. Chloroquine is also immunomodulatory, capable of suppressing the production and release of factors which mediate the inflammatory complications of viral diseases (tumor necrosis factor and interleukin 6) [121] . It is postulated that chloroquine works by altering ACE2 glycosylation and endosomal pH. Its anti-inflammatory properties may be beneficial for the treatment of SARS. Niclosamide as a known drug used in antihelminthic treatment. The efficacy of niclosamide as an inhibitor of virus replication was proven in several assays. In both immunoblot analysis and immunofluorescence assays, niclosamide treatment was observed to completely inhibit viral antigen synthesis. Reduction of virus yield in infected cells was dose dependent. Niclosamide likely does not interfere in the early stages of virus attachment and entry into cells, nor does it function as a protease inhibitor. Mechanisms of niclosamide activity warrant further investigation [122] . Glycyrrhizin also reportedly inhibits virus adsorption and penetration in the early steps of virus replication. Glycyrrhizin was a significantly potent inhibitor with a low selectivity index when tested against several pathogenic flaviviruses. While preliminary results suggest production of nitrous oxide (which inhibits virus replication) through induction of nitrous oxide synthase, the mechanism of Glycyrrhizin against SARS-CoV remains unclear. The compound also has relatively lower toxicity compared to protease inhibitors like ribavirin [123] . Inhibitory activity was also detected in baicalin [124] , extracted from another herb used in the treatment of SARS in China and Hong Kong. Findings on these compounds are limited to in vitro studies [121] [122] [123] [124] . Due to the rapidly evolving situation of the 2019-nCoV, there will be potential limitations to the systematic review. The systematic review is likely to have publication bias as some developments have yet to be reported while for other developments there is no intention to report publicly (or in scientific platforms) due to confidentiality concerns. However, this may be limited to only a few developments for review as publicity does help in branding to some extent for the company and/or the funder. Furthermore, due to the rapid need to share the status of these developments, there may be reporting bias in some details provided by authors of the scientific articles or commentary articles in traditional media. Lastly, while it is not viable for any form of quality assessment and metaanalysis of the selected articles due to the limited data provided and the heterogeneous style of reporting by different articles, this paper has provided a comprehensive overview of the potential developments of these pharmaceutical interventions during the early phase of the outbreak. This systematic review would be useful for cross-check when the quality assessment and meta-analysis of these developments are performed as a follow-up study. Rapid diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics are key pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission of respiratory infectious diseases. Many potential developments on these pharmaceutical interventions for 2019-nCoV are ongoing in the containment phase of this outbreak, potentially due to better pandemic preparedness than before. However, lessons from MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV have shown that the journeys for these developments can still be challenging moving ahead. Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at www.mdpi.com/xxx/s1, Table S1 : Example of full search strategy in Pubmed, Table S2 : Google Search: 2019-nCoV diagnostics, Table S3 : Summary of diagnostic assays developed for 2019-nCoV, Table S4

What was the result of the treatment?

Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non- pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Seth Flaxmani Swapnil Mishra*, Axel Gandy*, H JulietteT Unwin, Helen Coupland, Thomas A Mellan, Harrison Zhu, Tresnia Berah, Jeffrey W Eaton, Pablo N P Guzman, Nora Schmit, Lucia Cilloni, Kylie E C Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Isobel Blake, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Olivia Boyd, Lorenzo Cattarino, Constanze Ciavarella, Laura Cooper, Zulma Cucunuba’, Gina Cuomo—Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Sabine van Elsland, Rich FitzJohn, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, Nicholas Grassly, Wi|| Green, Timothy Hallett, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Ben Jeffrey, David Jorgensen, Edward Knock, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati—Gilani, Pierre Nouvellet, Kris Parag, Igor Siveroni, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Caroline Walters, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Oliver Watson, Peter Winskill, Xiaoyue Xi, Charles Whittaker, Patrick GT Walker, Azra Ghani, Christl A. Donnelly, Steven Riley, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, NeilM.Ferguson1and Samir Bhatt*1 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Abdul LatifJameeI Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London Department of Statistics, University of Oxford *Contributed equally 1Correspondence: nei|[email protected], [email protected] Summary Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) and its spread outside of China, Europe is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social distancing including local and national Iockdowns. In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the reproductive number— a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. One of the key assumptions of the model is that each intervention has the same effect on the reproduction number across countries and over time. This allows us to leverage a greater amount of data across Europe to estimate these effects. It also means that our results are driven strongly by the data from countries with more advanced epidemics, and earlier interventions, such as Italy and Spain. We find that the slowing growth in daily reported deaths in Italy is consistent with a significant impact of interventions implemented several weeks earlier. In Italy, we estimate that the effective reproduction number, Rt, dropped to close to 1 around the time of Iockdown (11th March), although with a high level of uncertainty. Overall, we estimate that countries have managed to reduce their reproduction number. Our estimates have wide credible intervals and contain 1 for countries that have implemented a|| interventions considered in our analysis. This means that the reproduction number may be above or below this value. With current interventions remaining in place to at least the end of March, we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-Z up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% ofthe population. The proportion of the population infected to date — the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics. Given the lag of 2-3 weeks between when transmission changes occur and when their impact can be observed in trends in mortality, for most of the countries considered here it remains too early to be certain that recent interventions have been effective. If interventions in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic, such as Germany or the UK, are more or less effective than they were in the countries with advanced epidemics, on which our estimates are largely based, or if interventions have improved or worsened over time, then our estimates of the reproduction number and deaths averted would change accordingly. It is therefore critical that the current interventions remain in place and trends in cases and deaths are closely monitored in the coming days and weeks to provide reassurance that transmission of SARS-Cov-Z is slowing. SUGGESTED CITATION Seth Flaxman, Swapnil Mishra, Axel Gandy et 0/. Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non— pharmaceutical interventions on COVID—19 in 11 European countries. Imperial College London (2020), doi: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 1 Introduction Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-Z) in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and its global spread, large epidemics of the disease, caused by the virus designated COVID-19, have emerged in Europe. In response to the rising numbers of cases and deaths, and to maintain the capacity of health systems to treat as many severe cases as possible, European countries, like those in other continents, have implemented or are in the process of implementing measures to control their epidemics. These large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions vary between countries but include social distancing (such as banning large gatherings and advising individuals not to socialize outside their households), border closures, school closures, measures to isolate symptomatic individuals and their contacts, and large-scale lockdowns of populations with all but essential internal travel banned. Understanding firstly, whether these interventions are having the desired impact of controlling the epidemic and secondly, which interventions are necessary to maintain control, is critical given their large economic and social costs. The key aim ofthese interventions is to reduce the effective reproduction number, Rt, ofthe infection, a fundamental epidemiological quantity representing the average number of infections, at time t, per infected case over the course of their infection. Ith is maintained at less than 1, the incidence of new infections decreases, ultimately resulting in control of the epidemic. If Rt is greater than 1, then infections will increase (dependent on how much greater than 1 the reproduction number is) until the epidemic peaks and eventually declines due to acquisition of herd immunity. In China, strict movement restrictions and other measures including case isolation and quarantine began to be introduced from 23rd January, which achieved a downward trend in the number of confirmed new cases during February, resulting in zero new confirmed indigenous cases in Wuhan by March 19th. Studies have estimated how Rt changed during this time in different areas ofChina from around 2-4 during the uncontrolled epidemic down to below 1, with an estimated 7-9 fold decrease in the number of daily contacts per person.1'2 Control measures such as social distancing, intensive testing, and contact tracing in other countries such as Singapore and South Korea have successfully reduced case incidence in recent weeks, although there is a riskthe virus will spread again once control measures are relaxed.3'4 The epidemic began slightly laterin Europe, from January or later in different regions.5 Countries have implemented different combinations of control measures and the level of adherence to government recommendations on social distancing is likely to vary between countries, in part due to different levels of enforcement. Estimating reproduction numbers for SARS-CoV-Z presents challenges due to the high proportion of infections not detected by health systems”7 and regular changes in testing policies, resulting in different proportions of infections being detected over time and between countries. Most countries so far only have the capacity to test a small proportion of suspected cases and tests are reserved for severely ill patients or for high-risk groups (e.g. contacts of cases). Looking at case data, therefore, gives a systematically biased view of trends. An alternative way to estimate the course of the epidemic is to back-calculate infections from observed deaths. Reported deaths are likely to be more reliable, although the early focus of most surveillance systems on cases with reported travel histories to China may mean that some early deaths will have been missed. Whilst the recent trends in deaths will therefore be informative, there is a time lag in observing the effect of interventions on deaths since there is a 2-3-week period between infection, onset of symptoms and outcome. In this report, we fit a novel Bayesian mechanistic model of the infection cycle to observed deaths in 11 European countries, inferring plausible upper and lower bounds (Bayesian credible intervals) of the total populations infected (attack rates), case detection probabilities, and the reproduction number over time (Rt). We fit the model jointly to COVID-19 data from all these countries to assess whether there is evidence that interventions have so far been successful at reducing Rt below 1, with the strong assumption that particular interventions are achieving a similar impact in different countries and that the efficacy of those interventions remains constant over time. The model is informed more strongly by countries with larger numbers of deaths and which implemented interventions earlier, therefore estimates of recent Rt in countries with more recent interventions are contingent on similar intervention impacts. Data in the coming weeks will enable estimation of country-specific Rt with greater precision. Model and data details are presented in the appendix, validation and sensitivity are also presented in the appendix, and general limitations presented below in the conclusions. 2 Results The timing of interventions should be taken in the context of when an individual country’s epidemic started to grow along with the speed with which control measures were implemented. Italy was the first to begin intervention measures, and other countries followed soon afterwards (Figure 1). Most interventions began around 12th-14th March. We analyzed data on deaths up to 28th March, giving a 2-3-week window over which to estimate the effect of interventions. Currently, most countries in our study have implemented all major non-pharmaceutical interventions. For each country, we model the number of infections, the number of deaths, and Rt, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced (Figure 2- 12). Rt is the average number of secondary infections per infected individual, assuming that the interventions that are in place at time t stay in place throughout their entire infectious period. Every country has its own individual starting reproduction number Rt before interventions take place. Specific interventions are assumed to have the same relative impact on Rt in each country when they were introduced there and are informed by mortality data across all countries. Figure l: Intervention timings for the 11 European countries included in the analysis. For further details see Appendix 8.6. 2.1 Estimated true numbers of infections and current attack rates In all countries, we estimate there are orders of magnitude fewer infections detected (Figure 2) than true infections, mostly likely due to mild and asymptomatic infections as well as limited testing capacity. In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th, giving an attack rate of 9.8% [3.2%-25%] of the population (Table 1). Spain has recently seen a large increase in the number of deaths, and given its smaller population, our model estimates that a higher proportion of the population, 15.0% (7.0 [18-19] million people) have been infected to date. Germany is estimated to have one of the lowest attack rates at 0.7% with 600,000 [240,000-1,500,000] people infected. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table l: Posterior model estimates of percentage of total population infected as of 28th March 2020. Country % of total population infected (mean [95% credible intervall) Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%] Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%] Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%] France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%] Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%] Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%] Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%] Spain 15% [3.7%-41%] Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%] Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%] United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%] 2.2 Reproduction numbers and impact of interventions Averaged across all countries, we estimate initial reproduction numbers of around 3.87 [3.01-4.66], which is in line with other estimates.1'8 These estimates are informed by our choice of serial interval distribution and the initial growth rate of observed deaths. A shorter assumed serial interval results in lower starting reproduction numbers (Appendix 8.4.2, Appendix 8.4.6). The initial reproduction numbers are also uncertain due to (a) importation being the dominant source of new infections early in the epidemic, rather than local transmission (b) possible under-ascertainment in deaths particularly before testing became widespread. We estimate large changes in Rt in response to the combined non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results, which are driven largely by countries with advanced epidemics and larger numbers of deaths (e.g. Italy, Spain), suggest that these interventions have together had a substantial impact on transmission, as measured by changes in the estimated reproduction number Rt. Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of2.64 [1.40-4.18] for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values. We note that these estimates are contingent on intervention impact being the same in different countries and at different times. In all countries but Sweden, under the same assumptions, we estimate that the current reproduction number includes 1 in the uncertainty range. The estimated reproduction number for Sweden is higher, not because the mortality trends are significantly different from any other country, but as an artefact of our model, which assumes a smaller reduction in Rt because no full lockdown has been ordered so far. Overall, we cannot yet conclude whether current interventions are sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (posterior probability of being less than 1.0 is 44% on average across the countries). We are also unable to conclude whether interventions may be different between countries or over time. There remains a high level of uncertainty in these estimates. It is too early to detect substantial intervention impact in many countries at earlier stages of their epidemic (e.g. Germany, UK, Norway). Many interventions have occurred only recently, and their effects have not yet been fully observed due to the time lag between infection and death. This uncertainty will reduce as more data become available. For all countries, our model fits observed deaths data well (Bayesian goodness of fit tests). We also found that our model can reliably forecast daily deaths 3 days into the future, by withholding the latest 3 days of data and comparing model predictions to observed deaths (Appendix 8.3). The close spacing of interventions in time made it statistically impossible to determine which had the greatest effect (Figure 1, Figure 4). However, when doing a sensitivity analysis (Appendix 8.4.3) with uninformative prior distributions (where interventions can increase deaths) we find similar impact of Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team interventions, which shows that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Figure 2: Country-level estimates of infections, deaths and Rt. Left: daily number of infections, brown bars are reported infections, blue bands are predicted infections, dark blue 50% credible interval (CI), light blue 95% CI. The number of daily infections estimated by our model drops immediately after an intervention, as we assume that all infected people become immediately less infectious through the intervention. Afterwards, if the Rt is above 1, the number of infections will starts growing again. Middle: daily number of deaths, brown bars are reported deaths, blue bands are predicted deaths, CI as in left plot. Right: time-varying reproduction number Rt, dark green 50% CI, light green 95% CI. Icons are interventions shown at the time they occurred. Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Table 2: Totalforecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to 31 March in our model and in a counterfactual model (assuming no intervention had taken place). Estimated averted deaths over this time period as a result of the interventions. Numbers in brackets are 95% credible intervals. 2.3 Estimated impact of interventions on deaths Table 2 shows total forecasted deaths since the beginning of the epidemic up to and including 31 March under ourfitted model and under the counterfactual model, which predicts what would have happened if no interventions were implemented (and R, = R0 i.e. the initial reproduction number estimated before interventions). Again, the assumption in these predictions is that intervention impact is the same across countries and time. The model without interventions was unable to capture recent trends in deaths in several countries, where the rate of increase had clearly slowed (Figure 3). Trends were confirmed statistically by Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation and the widely applicable information criterion assessments —WA|C). By comparing the deaths predicted under the model with no interventions to the deaths predicted in our intervention model, we calculated the total deaths averted up to the end of March. We find that, across 11 countries, since the beginning of the epidemic, 59,000 [21,000-120,000] deaths have been averted due to interventions. In Italy and Spain, where the epidemic is advanced, 38,000 [13,000- 84,000] and 16,000 [5,400-35,000] deaths have been averted, respectively. Even in the UK, which is much earlier in its epidemic, we predict 370 [73-1,000] deaths have been averted. These numbers give only the deaths averted that would have occurred up to 31 March. lfwe were to include the deaths of currently infected individuals in both models, which might happen after 31 March, then the deaths averted would be substantially higher. Figure 3: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for (a) Italy and (b) Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. Other countries are shown in Appendix 8.6. 03/0 25% 50% 753% 100% (no effect on transmissibility) (ends transmissibility Relative % reduction in R. Figure 4: Our model includes five covariates for governmental interventions, adjusting for whether the intervention was the first one undertaken by the government in response to COVID-19 (red) or was subsequent to other interventions (green). Mean relative percentage reduction in Rt is shown with 95% posterior credible intervals. If 100% reduction is achieved, Rt = 0 and there is no more transmission of COVID-19. No effects are significantly different from any others, probably due to the fact that many interventions occurred on the same day or within days of each other as shown in Figure l. 3 Discussion During this early phase of control measures against the novel coronavirus in Europe, we analyze trends in numbers of deaths to assess the extent to which transmission is being reduced. Representing the COVlD-19 infection process using a semi-mechanistic, joint, Bayesian hierarchical model, we can reproduce trends observed in the data on deaths and can forecast accurately over short time horizons. We estimate that there have been many more infections than are currently reported. The high level of under-ascertainment of infections that we estimate here is likely due to the focus on testing in hospital settings rather than in the community. Despite this, only a small minority of individuals in each country have been infected, with an attack rate on average of 4.9% [l.9%-ll%] with considerable variation between countries (Table 1). Our estimates imply that the populations in Europe are not close to herd immunity ("50-75% if R0 is 2-4). Further, with Rt values dropping substantially, the rate of acquisition of herd immunity will slow down rapidly. This implies that the virus will be able to spread rapidly should interventions be lifted. Such estimates of the attack rate to date urgently need to be validated by newly developed antibody tests in representative population surveys, once these become available. We estimate that major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact on the time- varying reproduction numbers in countries where there has been time to observe intervention effects on trends in deaths (Italy, Spain). lfadherence in those countries has changed since that initial period, then our forecast of future deaths will be affected accordingly: increasing adherence over time will have resulted in fewer deaths and decreasing adherence in more deaths. Similarly, our estimates of the impact ofinterventions in other countries should be viewed with caution if the same interventions have achieved different levels of adherence than was initially the case in Italy and Spain. Due to the implementation of interventions in rapid succession in many countries, there are not enough data to estimate the individual effect size of each intervention, and we discourage attributing associations to individual intervention. In some cases, such as Norway, where all interventions were implemented at once, these individual effects are by definition unidentifiable. Despite this, while individual impacts cannot be determined, their estimated joint impact is strongly empirically justified (see Appendix 8.4 for sensitivity analysis). While the growth in daily deaths has decreased, due to the lag between infections and deaths, continued rises in daily deaths are to be expected for some time. To understand the impact of interventions, we fit a counterfactual model without the interventions and compare this to the actual model. Consider Italy and the UK - two countries at very different stages in their epidemics. For the UK, where interventions are very recent, much of the intervention strength is borrowed from countries with older epidemics. The results suggest that interventions will have a large impact on infections and deaths despite counts of both rising. For Italy, where far more time has passed since the interventions have been implemented, it is clear that the model without interventions does not fit well to the data, and cannot explain the sub-linear (on the logarithmic scale) reduction in deaths (see Figure 10). The counterfactual model for Italy suggests that despite mounting pressure on health systems, interventions have averted a health care catastrophe where the number of new deaths would have been 3.7 times higher (38,000 deaths averted) than currently observed. Even in the UK, much earlier in its epidemic, the recent interventions are forecasted to avert 370 total deaths up to 31 of March. 4 Conclusion and Limitations Modern understanding of infectious disease with a global publicized response has meant that nationwide interventions could be implemented with widespread adherence and support. Given observed infection fatality ratios and the epidemiology of COVlD-19, major non-pharmaceutical interventions have had a substantial impact in reducing transmission in countries with more advanced epidemics. It is too early to be sure whether similar reductions will be seen in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic. While we cannot determine which set of interventions have been most successful, taken together, we can already see changes in the trends of new deaths. When forecasting 3 days and looking over the whole epidemic the number of deaths averted is substantial. We note that substantial innovation is taking place, and new more effective interventions or refinements of current interventions, alongside behavioral changes will further contribute to reductions in infections. We cannot say for certain that the current measures have controlled the epidemic in Europe; however, if current trends continue, there is reason for optimism. Our approach is semi-mechanistic. We propose a plausible structure for the infection process and then estimate parameters empirically. However, many parameters had to be given strong prior distributions or had to be fixed. For these assumptions, we have provided relevant citations to previous studies. As more data become available and better estimates arise, we will update these in weekly reports. Our choice of serial interval distribution strongly influences the prior distribution for starting R0. Our infection fatality ratio, and infection-to-onset-to-death distributions strongly influence the rate of death and hence the estimated number of true underlying cases. We also assume that the effect of interventions is the same in all countries, which may not be fully realistic. This assumption implies that countries with early interventions and more deaths since these interventions (e.g. Italy, Spain) strongly influence estimates of intervention impact in countries at earlier stages of their epidemic with fewer deaths (e.g. Germany, UK). We have tried to create consistent definitions of all interventions and document details of this in Appendix 8.6. However, invariably there will be differences from country to country in the strength of their intervention — for example, most countries have banned gatherings of more than 2 people when implementing a lockdown, whereas in Sweden the government only banned gatherings of more than 10 people. These differences can skew impacts in countries with very little data. We believe that our uncertainty to some degree can cover these differences, and as more data become available, coefficients should become more reliable. However, despite these strong assumptions, there is sufficient signal in the data to estimate changes in R, (see the sensitivity analysis reported in Appendix 8.4.3) and this signal will stand to increase with time. In our Bayesian hierarchical framework, we robustly quantify the uncertainty in our parameter estimates and posterior predictions. This can be seen in the very wide credible intervals in more recent days, where little or no death data are available to inform the estimates. Furthermore, we predict intervention impact at country-level, but different trends may be in place in different parts of each country. For example, the epidemic in northern Italy was subject to controls earlier than the rest of the country. 5 Data Our model utilizes daily real-time death data from the ECDC (European Centre of Disease Control), where we catalogue case data for 11 European countries currently experiencing the epidemic: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The ECDC provides information on confirmed cases and deaths attributable to COVID-19. However, the case data are highly unrepresentative of the incidence of infections due to underreporting as well as systematic and country-specific changes in testing. We, therefore, use only deaths attributable to COVID-19 in our model; we do not use the ECDC case estimates at all. While the observed deaths still have some degree of unreliability, again due to changes in reporting and testing, we believe the data are ofsufficient fidelity to model. For population counts, we use UNPOP age-stratified counts.10 We also catalogue data on the nature and type of major non-pharmaceutical interventions. We looked at the government webpages from each country as well as their official public health division/information webpages to identify the latest advice/laws being issued by the government and public health authorities. We collected the following: School closure ordered: This intervention refers to nationwide extraordinary school closures which in most cases refer to both primary and secondary schools closing (for most countries this also includes the closure of otherforms of higher education or the advice to teach remotely). In the case of Denmark and Sweden, we allowed partial school closures of only secondary schools. The date of the school closure is taken to be the effective date when the schools started to be closed (ifthis was on a Monday, the date used was the one of the previous Saturdays as pupils and students effectively stayed at home from that date onwards). Case-based measures: This intervention comprises strong recommendations or laws to the general public and primary care about self—isolation when showing COVID-19-like symptoms. These also include nationwide testing programs where individuals can be tested and subsequently self—isolated. Our definition is restricted to nationwide government advice to all individuals (e.g. UK) or to all primary care and excludes regional only advice. These do not include containment phase interventions such as isolation if travelling back from an epidemic country such as China. Public events banned: This refers to banning all public events of more than 100 participants such as sports events. Social distancing encouraged: As one of the first interventions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments have published advice on social distancing including the recommendation to work from home wherever possible, reducing use ofpublictransport and all other non-essential contact. The dates used are those when social distancing has officially been recommended by the government; the advice may include maintaining a recommended physical distance from others. Lockdown decreed: There are several different scenarios that the media refers to as lockdown. As an overall definition, we consider regulations/legislations regarding strict face-to-face social interaction: including the banning of any non-essential public gatherings, closure of educational and public/cultural institutions, ordering people to stay home apart from exercise and essential tasks. We include special cases where these are not explicitly mentioned on government websites but are enforced by the police (e.g. France). The dates used are the effective dates when these legislations have been implemented. We note that lockdown encompasses other interventions previously implemented. First intervention: As Figure 1 shows, European governments have escalated interventions rapidly, and in some examples (Norway/Denmark) have implemented these interventions all on a single day. Therefore, given the temporal autocorrelation inherent in government intervention, we include a binary covariate for the first intervention, which can be interpreted as a government decision to take major action to control COVID-19. A full list of the timing of these interventions and the sources we have used can be found in Appendix 8.6. 6 Methods Summary A Visual summary of our model is presented in Figure 5 (details in Appendix 8.1 and 8.2). Replication code is available at https://github.com/|mperia|CollegeLondon/covid19model/releases/tag/vl.0 We fit our model to observed deaths according to ECDC data from 11 European countries. The modelled deaths are informed by an infection-to-onset distribution (time from infection to the onset of symptoms), an onset-to-death distribution (time from the onset of symptoms to death), and the population-averaged infection fatality ratio (adjusted for the age structure and contact patterns of each country, see Appendix). Given these distributions and ratios, modelled deaths are a function of the number of infections. The modelled number of infections is informed by the serial interval distribution (the average time from infection of one person to the time at which they infect another) and the time-varying reproduction number. Finally, the time-varying reproduction number is a function of the initial reproduction number before interventions and the effect sizes from interventions. Figure 5: Summary of model components. Following the hierarchy from bottom to top gives us a full framework to see how interventions affect infections, which can result in deaths. We use Bayesian inference to ensure our modelled deaths can reproduce the observed deaths as closely as possible. From bottom to top in Figure 5, there is an implicit lag in time that means the effect of very recent interventions manifest weakly in current deaths (and get stronger as time progresses). To maximise the ability to observe intervention impact on deaths, we fit our model jointly for all 11 European countries, which results in a large data set. Our model jointly estimates the effect sizes of interventions. We have evaluated the effect ofour Bayesian prior distribution choices and evaluate our Bayesian posterior calibration to ensure our results are statistically robust (Appendix 8.4). 7 Acknowledgements Initial research on covariates in Appendix 8.6 was crowdsourced; we thank a number of people across the world for help with this. This work was supported by Centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development, the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Modelling Methodology and CommunityJameel. 8 Appendix: Model Specifics, Validation and Sensitivity Analysis 8.1 Death model We observe daily deaths Dam for days t E 1, ...,n and countries m E 1, ...,p. These daily deaths are modelled using a positive real-Valued function dam = E(Dam) that represents the expected number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. Dam is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution with The expected number of deaths (1 in a given country on a given day is a function of the number of infections C occurring in previous days. At the beginning of the epidemic, the observed deaths in a country can be dominated by deaths that result from infection that are not locally acquired. To avoid biasing our model by this, we only include observed deaths from the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths in our model. To mechanistically link ourfunction for deaths to infected cases, we use a previously estimated COVID- 19 infection-fatality-ratio ifr (probability of death given infection)9 together with a distribution oftimes from infection to death TE. The ifr is derived from estimates presented in Verity et al11 which assumed homogeneous attack rates across age-groups. To better match estimates of attack rates by age generated using more detailed information on country and age-specific mixing patterns, we scale these estimates (the unadjusted ifr, referred to here as ifr’) in the following way as in previous work.4 Let Ca be the number of infections generated in age-group a, Na the underlying size of the population in that age group and AR“ 2 Ca/Na the age-group-specific attack rate. The adjusted ifr is then given by: ifra = fififié, where AR50_59 is the predicted attack-rate in the 50-59 year age-group after incorporating country-specific patterns of contact and mixing. This age-group was chosen as the reference as it had the lowest predicted level of underreporting in previous analyses of data from the Chinese epidemic“. We obtained country-specific estimates of attack rate by age, AR“, for the 11 European countries in our analysis from a previous study which incorporates information on contact between individuals of different ages in countries across Europe.12 We then obtained overall ifr estimates for each country adjusting for both demography and age-specific attack rates. Using estimated epidemiological information from previous studies,“'11 we assume TE to be the sum of two independent random times: the incubation period (infection to onset of symptoms or infection- to-onset) distribution and the time between onset of symptoms and death (onset-to-death). The infection-to-onset distribution is Gamma distributed with mean 5.1 days and coefficient of variation 0.86. The onset-to-death distribution is also Gamma distributed with a mean of 18.8 days and a coefficient of va riation 0.45. ifrm is population averaged over the age structure of a given country. The infection-to-death distribution is therefore given by: um ~ ifrm ~ (Gamma(5.1,0.86) + Gamma(18.8,0.45)) Figure 6 shows the infection-to-death distribution and the resulting survival function that integrates to the infection fatality ratio. Figure 6: Left, infection-to-death distribution (mean 23.9 days). Right, survival probability of infected individuals per day given the infection fatality ratio (1%) and the infection-to-death distribution on the left. Using the probability of death distribution, the expected number of deaths dam, on a given day t, for country, m, is given by the following discrete sum: The number of deaths today is the sum of the past infections weighted by their probability of death, where the probability of death depends on the number of days since infection. 8.2 Infection model The true number of infected individuals, C, is modelled using a discrete renewal process. This approach has been used in numerous previous studies13'16 and has a strong theoretical basis in stochastic individual-based counting processes such as Hawkes process and the Bellman-Harris process.”18 The renewal model is related to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, except the renewal is not expressed in differential form. To model the number ofinfections over time we need to specify a serial interval distribution g with density g(T), (the time between when a person gets infected and when they subsequently infect another other people), which we choose to be Gamma distributed: g ~ Gamma (6.50.62). The serial interval distribution is shown below in Figure 7 and is assumed to be the same for all countries. Figure 7: Serial interval distribution g with a mean of 6.5 days. Given the serial interval distribution, the number of infections Eamon a given day t, and country, m, is given by the following discrete convolution function: _ t—1 Cam — Ram ZT=0 Cr,mgt—‘r r where, similarto the probability ofdeath function, the daily serial interval is discretized by fs+0.5 1.5 gs = T=s—0.Sg(T)dT fors = 2,3, and 91 = fT=Og(T)dT. Infections today depend on the number of infections in the previous days, weighted by the discretized serial interval distribution. This weighting is then scaled by the country-specific time-Varying reproduction number, Ram, that models the average number of secondary infections at a given time. The functional form for the time-Varying reproduction number was chosen to be as simple as possible to minimize the impact of strong prior assumptions: we use a piecewise constant function that scales Ram from a baseline prior R0,m and is driven by known major non-pharmaceutical interventions occurring in different countries and times. We included 6 interventions, one of which is constructed from the other 5 interventions, which are timings of school and university closures (k=l), self—isolating if ill (k=2), banning of public events (k=3), any government intervention in place (k=4), implementing a partial or complete lockdown (k=5) and encouraging social distancing and isolation (k=6). We denote the indicator variable for intervention k E 1,2,3,4,5,6 by IkI’m, which is 1 if intervention k is in place in country m at time t and 0 otherwise. The covariate ”any government intervention” (k=4) indicates if any of the other 5 interventions are in effect,i.e.14’t’m equals 1 at time t if any of the interventions k E 1,2,3,4,5 are in effect in country m at time t and equals 0 otherwise. Covariate 4 has the interpretation of indicating the onset of major government intervention. The effect of each intervention is assumed to be multiplicative. Ram is therefore a function ofthe intervention indicators Ik’t’m in place at time t in country m: Ram : R0,m eXp(— 212:1 O(Rheum)- The exponential form was used to ensure positivity of the reproduction number, with R0,m constrained to be positive as it appears outside the exponential. The impact of each intervention on Ram is characterised by a set of parameters 0(1, ...,OL6, with independent prior distributions chosen to be ock ~ Gamma(. 5,1). The impacts ock are shared between all m countries and therefore they are informed by all available data. The prior distribution for R0 was chosen to be R0,m ~ Normal(2.4, IKI) with K ~ Normal(0,0.5), Once again, K is the same among all countries to share information. We assume that seeding of new infections begins 30 days before the day after a country has cumulatively observed 10 deaths. From this date, we seed our model with 6 sequential days of infections drawn from cl’m,...,66’m~EXponential(T), where T~Exponential(0.03). These seed infections are inferred in our Bayesian posterior distribution. We estimated parameters jointly for all 11 countries in a single hierarchical model. Fitting was done in the probabilistic programming language Stan,19 using an adaptive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampler. We ran 8 chains for 4000 iterations with 2000 iterations of warmup and a thinning factor 4 to obtain 2000 posterior samples. Posterior convergence was assessed using the Rhat statistic and by diagnosing divergent transitions of the HMC sampler. Prior-posterior calibrations were also performed (see below). 8.3 Validation We validate accuracy of point estimates of our model using cross-Validation. In our cross-validation scheme, we leave out 3 days of known death data (non-cumulative) and fit our model. We forecast what the model predicts for these three days. We present the individual forecasts for each day, as well as the average forecast for those three days. The cross-validation results are shown in the Figure 8. Figure 8: Cross-Validation results for 3-day and 3-day aggregatedforecasts Figure 8 provides strong empirical justification for our model specification and mechanism. Our accurate forecast over a three-day time horizon suggests that our fitted estimates for Rt are appropriate and plausible. Along with from point estimates we all evaluate our posterior credible intervals using the Rhat statistic. The Rhat statistic measures whether our Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains have converged to the equilibrium distribution (the correct posterior distribution). Figure 9 shows the Rhat statistics for all of our parameters Figure 9: Rhat statistics - values close to 1 indicate MCMC convergence. Figure 9 indicates that our MCMC have converged. In fitting we also ensured that the MCMC sampler experienced no divergent transitions - suggesting non pathological posterior topologies. 8.4 SensitivityAnalysis 8.4.1 Forecasting on log-linear scale to assess signal in the data As we have highlighted throughout in this report, the lag between deaths and infections means that it ta kes time for information to propagate backwa rds from deaths to infections, and ultimately to Rt. A conclusion of this report is the prediction of a slowing of Rt in response to major interventions. To gain intuition that this is data driven and not simply a consequence of highly constrained model assumptions, we show death forecasts on a log-linear scale. On this scale a line which curves below a linear trend is indicative of slowing in the growth of the epidemic. Figure 10 to Figure 12 show these forecasts for Italy, Spain and the UK. They show this slowing down in the daily number of deaths. Our model suggests that Italy, a country that has the highest death toll of COVID-19, will see a slowing in the increase in daily deaths over the coming week compared to the early stages of the epidemic. We investigated the sensitivity of our estimates of starting and final Rt to our assumed serial interval distribution. For this we considered several scenarios, in which we changed the serial interval distribution mean, from a value of 6.5 days, to have values of 5, 6, 7 and 8 days. In Figure 13, we show our estimates of R0, the starting reproduction number before interventions, for each of these scenarios. The relative ordering of the Rt=0 in the countries is consistent in all settings. However, as expected, the scale of Rt=0 is considerably affected by this change — a longer serial interval results in a higher estimated Rt=0. This is because to reach the currently observed size of the epidemics, a longer assumed serial interval is compensated by a higher estimated R0. Additionally, in Figure 14, we show our estimates of Rt at the most recent model time point, again for each ofthese scenarios. The serial interval mean can influence Rt substantially, however, the posterior credible intervals of Rt are broadly overlapping. Figure 13: Initial reproduction number R0 for different serial interval (SI) distributions (means between 5 and 8 days). We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. Figure 14: Rt on 28 March 2020 estimated for all countries, with serial interval (SI) distribution means between 5 and 8 days. We use 6.5 days in our main analysis. 8.4.3 Uninformative prior sensitivity on or We ran our model using implausible uninformative prior distributions on the intervention effects, allowing the effect of an intervention to increase or decrease Rt. To avoid collinearity, we ran 6 separate models, with effects summarized below (compare with the main analysis in Figure 4). In this series of univariate analyses, we find (Figure 15) that all effects on their own serve to decrease Rt. This gives us confidence that our choice of prior distribution is not driving the effects we see in the main analysis. Lockdown has a very large effect, most likely due to the fact that it occurs after other interventions in our dataset. The relatively large effect sizes for the other interventions are most likely due to the coincidence of the interventions in time, such that one intervention is a proxy for a few others. Figure 15: Effects of different interventions when used as the only covariate in the model. 8.4.4 To assess prior assumptions on our piecewise constant functional form for Rt we test using a nonparametric function with a Gaussian process prior distribution. We fit a model with a Gaussian process prior distribution to data from Italy where there is the largest signal in death data. We find that the Gaussian process has a very similartrend to the piecewise constant model and reverts to the mean in regions of no data. The correspondence of a completely nonparametric function and our piecewise constant function suggests a suitable parametric specification of Rt. Nonparametric fitting of Rf using a Gaussian process: 8.4.5 Leave country out analysis Due to the different lengths of each European countries’ epidemic, some countries, such as Italy have much more data than others (such as the UK). To ensure that we are not leveraging too much information from any one country we perform a ”leave one country out” sensitivity analysis, where we rerun the model without a different country each time. Figure 16 and Figure 17 are examples for results for the UK, leaving out Italy and Spain. In general, for all countries, we observed no significant dependence on any one country. Figure 16: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Italy for fitting the model. See the Figure 17: Model results for the UK, when not using data from Spain for fitting the model. See caption of Figure 2 for an explanation of the plots. 8.4.6 Starting reproduction numbers vs theoretical predictions To validate our starting reproduction numbers, we compare our fitted values to those theoretically expected from a simpler model assuming exponential growth rate, and a serial interval distribution mean. We fit a linear model with a Poisson likelihood and log link function and extracting the daily growth rate r. For well-known theoretical results from the renewal equation, given a serial interval distribution g(r) with mean m and standard deviation 5, given a = mZ/S2 and b = m/SZ, and a subsequently R0 = (1 + %) .Figure 18 shows theoretically derived R0 along with our fitted estimates of Rt=0 from our Bayesian hierarchical model. As shown in Figure 18 there is large correspondence between our estimated starting reproduction number and the basic reproduction number implied by the growth rate r. R0 (red) vs R(FO) (black) Figure 18: Our estimated R0 (black) versus theoretically derived Ru(red) from a log-linear regression fit. 8.5 Counterfactual analysis — interventions vs no interventions Figure 19: Daily number of confirmed deaths, predictions (up to 28 March) and forecasts (after) for all countries except Italy and Spain from our model with interventions (blue) and from the no interventions counterfactual model (pink); credible intervals are shown one week into the future. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77731 Page 28 of 35 30 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team 8.6 Data sources and Timeline of Interventions Figure 1 and Table 3 display the interventions by the 11 countries in our study and the dates these interventions became effective. Table 3: Timeline of Interventions. Country Type Event Date effective School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.20 14/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of gatherings of more than 5 people.21 10/3/2020 Banning all access to public spaces and gatherings Lockdown of more than 5 people. Advice to maintain 1m ordered distance.22 16/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Recommendation to maintain a distance of 1m.22 16/3/2020 Case-based Austria measures Implemented at lockdown.22 16/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.23 14/3/2020 Public events All recreational activities cancelled regardless of banned size.23 12/3/2020 Citizens are required to stay at home except for Lockdown work and essential journeys. Going outdoors only ordered with household members or 1 friend.24 18/3/2020 Public transport recommended only for essential Social distancing journeys, work from home encouraged, all public encouraged places e.g. restaurants closed.23 14/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Belgium measures cough or fever.25 10/3/2020 School closure Secondary schools shut and universities (primary ordered schools also shut on 16th).26 13/3/2020 Public events Bans of events >100 people, closed cultural banned institutions, leisure facilities etc.27 12/3/2020 Lockdown Bans of gatherings of >10 people in public and all ordered public places were shut.27 18/3/2020 Limited use of public transport. All cultural Social distancing institutions shut and recommend keeping encouraged appropriate distance.28 13/3/2020 Case-based Everyone should stay at home if experiencing a Denmark measures cough or fever.29 12/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.30 14/3/2020 Public events banned Bans of events >100 people.31 13/3/2020 Lockdown Everybody has to stay at home. Need a self- ordered authorisation form to leave home.32 17/3/2020 Social distancing encouraged Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/3/2020 Case-based France measures Advice at the time of lockdown.32 16/03/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.33 14/3/2020 Public events No gatherings of >1000 people. Otherwise banned regional restrictions only until lockdown.34 22/3/2020 Lockdown Gatherings of > 2 people banned, 1.5 m ordered distance.35 22/3/2020 Social distancing Avoid social interaction wherever possible encouraged recommended by Merkel.36 12/3/2020 Advice for everyone experiencing symptoms to Case-based contact a health care agency to get tested and Germany measures then self—isolate.37 6/3/2020 School closure ordered Nationwide school closures.38 5/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans all public events.39 9/3/2020 Lockdown The government closes all public places. People ordered have to stay at home except for essential travel.40 11/3/2020 A distance of more than 1m has to be kept and Social distancing any other form of alternative aggregation is to be encouraged excluded.40 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing symptoms Italy measures and quarantine if tested positive.41 9/3/2020 Norwegian Directorate of Health closes all School closure educational institutions. Including childcare ordered facilities and all schools.42 13/3/2020 Public events The Directorate of Health bans all non-necessary banned social contact.42 12/3/2020 Lockdown Only people living together are allowed outside ordered together. Everyone has to keep a 2m distance.43 24/3/2020 Social distancing The Directorate of Health advises against all encouraged travelling and non-necessary social contacts.42 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Norway measures cough or fever symptoms.44 15/3/2020 ordered Nationwide school closures.45 13/3/2020 Public events banned Banning of all public events by lockdown.46 14/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Nationwide lockdown.43 14/3/2020 Social distancing Advice on social distancing and working remotely encouraged from home.47 9/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a Spain measures cough or fever symptoms.47 17/3/2020 School closure ordered Colleges and upper secondary schools shut.48 18/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >500 people.49 12/3/2020 Lockdown ordered No lockdown occurred. NA People even with mild symptoms are told to limit Social distancing social contact, encouragement to work from encouraged home.50 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Sweden measures fever symptoms.51 10/3/2020 School closure ordered No in person teaching until 4th of April.52 14/3/2020 Public events banned The government bans events >100 people.52 13/3/2020 Lockdown ordered Gatherings of more than 5 people are banned.53 2020-03-20 Advice on keeping distance. All businesses where Social distancing this cannot be realised have been closed in all encouraged states (kantons).54 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate if experiencing a cough or Switzerland measures fever symptoms.55 2/3/2020 Nationwide school closure. Childminders, School closure nurseries and sixth forms are told to follow the ordered guidance.56 21/3/2020 Public events banned Implemented with lockdown.57 24/3/2020 Gatherings of more than 2 people not from the Lockdown same household are banned and police ordered enforceable.57 24/3/2020 Social distancing Advice to avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other encouraged public institutions.58 16/3/2020 Case-based Advice to self—isolate for 7 days if experiencing a UK measures cough or fever symptoms.59 12/3/2020 9 References 1. Li, R. et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2). Science (2020) doi:10.1126/science.abb3221. 2. Zhang, J. et al. Patterns of human social contact and contact with animals in Shanghai, China. 5cLRep.9,1—11(2019) 3. Worldometers.info. Hong Kong: coronavirus cases. https://www.wo rldometers.info/co ronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/. 4. Ferguson, N. et al. 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Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das-bag/aktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78454.html (20201 55. Bundesamt fur Gesundheit BAG. Neue Hygiene- und Verhaltensregeln zum Schutz gegen das neue Coronavirus. Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/de/home/das- bag/a ktuell/medienmitteilungen.msg-id-78304.html (2020). 56. UK Government, D. for E. Schools, colleges and early years settings to close. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/news/schools-colleges-and-early-years-settings-to-close (2020). 57. UK Government. PM address to the nation on coronavirus: 23 March 2020. UK Government https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-23-march- 2020(20201 58. Boycott-Owen, Mason; Bowman, Verity; Kelly-Linden, Jordan; Gartner, A. G. H. S. T. Coronavirus: Boris Johnson puts UK in lockdown as death tolls reaches 55. The Telegraph https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-latest- update-covid-19-death-toll-cases/ (2020). 59. BBC News. Coronavirus: People with fever or ’continuous’ cough told to self—isolate. BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51857856 (2020).

Why is it challenging to estimate the reproduction number?

Virus-Vectored Influenza Virus Vaccines https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4147686/ SHA: f6d2afb2ec44d8656972ea79f8a833143bbeb42b Authors: Tripp, Ralph A.; Tompkins, S. Mark Date: 2014-08-07 DOI: 10.3390/v6083055 License: cc-by Abstract: Despite the availability of an inactivated vaccine that has been licensed for >50 years, the influenza virus continues to cause morbidity and mortality worldwide. Constant evolution of circulating influenza virus strains and the emergence of new strains diminishes the effectiveness of annual vaccines that rely on a match with circulating influenza strains. Thus, there is a continued need for new, efficacious vaccines conferring cross-clade protection to avoid the need for biannual reformulation of seasonal influenza vaccines. Recombinant virus-vectored vaccines are an appealing alternative to classical inactivated vaccines because virus vectors enable native expression of influenza antigens, even from virulent influenza viruses, while expressed in the context of the vector that can improve immunogenicity. In addition, a vectored vaccine often enables delivery of the vaccine to sites of inductive immunity such as the respiratory tract enabling protection from influenza virus infection. Moreover, the ability to readily manipulate virus vectors to produce novel influenza vaccines may provide the quickest path toward a universal vaccine protecting against all influenza viruses. This review will discuss experimental virus-vectored vaccines for use in humans, comparing them to licensed vaccines and the hurdles faced for licensure of these next-generation influenza virus vaccines. Text: Seasonal influenza is a worldwide health problem causing high mobility and substantial mortality [1] [2] [3] [4] . Moreover, influenza infection often worsens preexisting medical conditions [5] [6] [7] . Vaccines against circulating influenza strains are available and updated annually, but many issues are still present, including low efficacy in the populations at greatest risk of complications from influenza virus infection, i.e., the young and elderly [8, 9] . Despite increasing vaccination rates, influenza-related hospitalizations are increasing [8, 10] , and substantial drug resistance has developed to two of the four currently approved anti-viral drugs [11, 12] . While adjuvants have the potential to improve efficacy and availability of current inactivated vaccines, live-attenuated and virus-vectored vaccines are still considered one of the best options for the induction of broad and efficacious immunity to the influenza virus [13] . The general types of influenza vaccines available in the United States are trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV; in trivalent and quadrivalent forms). There are three types of inactivated vaccines that include whole virus inactivated, split virus inactivated, and subunit vaccines. In split virus vaccines, the virus is disrupted by a detergent. In subunit vaccines, HA and NA have been further purified by removal of other viral components. TIV is administered intramuscularly and contains three or four inactivated viruses, i.e., two type A strains (H1 and H3) and one or two type B strains. TIV efficacy is measured by induction of humoral responses to the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, the major surface and attachment glycoprotein on influenza. Serum antibody responses to HA are measured by the hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay, and the strain-specific HI titer is considered the gold-standard correlate of immunity to influenza where a four-fold increase in titer post-vaccination, or a HI titer of ≥1:40 is considered protective [4, 14] . Protection against clinical disease is mainly conferred by serum antibodies; however, mucosal IgA antibodies also may contribute to resistance against infection. Split virus inactivated vaccines can induce neuraminidase (NA)-specific antibody responses [15] [16] [17] , and anti-NA antibodies have been associated with protection from infection in humans [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] . Currently, NA-specific antibody responses are not considered a correlate of protection [14] . LAIV is administered as a nasal spray and contains the same three or four influenza virus strains as inactivated vaccines but on an attenuated vaccine backbone [4] . LAIV are temperature-sensitive and cold-adapted so they do not replicate effectively at core body temperature, but replicate in the mucosa of the nasopharynx [23] . LAIV immunization induces serum antibody responses, mucosal antibody responses (IgA), and T cell responses. While robust serum antibody and nasal wash (mucosal) antibody responses are associated with protection from infection, other immune responses, such as CD8 + cytotoxic lymphocyte (CTL) responses may contribute to protection and there is not a clear correlate of immunity for LAIV [4, 14, 24] . Currently licensed influenza virus vaccines suffer from a number of issues. The inactivated vaccines rely on specific antibody responses to the HA, and to a lesser extent NA proteins for protection. The immunodominant portions of the HA and NA molecules undergo a constant process of antigenic drift, a natural accumulation of mutations, enabling virus evasion from immunity [9, 25] . Thus, the circulating influenza A and B strains are reviewed annually for antigenic match with current vaccines, Replacement of vaccine strains may occur regularly, and annual vaccination is recommended to assure protection [4, 26, 27] . For the northern hemisphere, vaccine strain selection occurs in February and then manufacturers begin production, taking at least six months to produce the millions of vaccine doses required for the fall [27] . If the prediction is imperfect, or if manufacturers have issues with vaccine production, vaccine efficacy or availability can be compromised [28] . LAIV is not recommended for all populations; however, it is generally considered to be as effective as inactivated vaccines and may be more efficacious in children [4, 9, 24] . While LAIV relies on antigenic match and the HA and NA antigens are replaced on the same schedule as the TIV [4, 9] , there is some suggestion that LAIV may induce broader protection than TIV due to the diversity of the immune response consistent with inducing virus-neutralizing serum and mucosal antibodies, as well as broadly reactive T cell responses [9, 23, 29] . While overall both TIV and LAIV are considered safe and effective, there is a recognized need for improved seasonal influenza vaccines [26] . Moreover, improved understanding of immunity to conserved influenza virus antigens has raised the possibility of a universal vaccine, and these universal antigens will likely require novel vaccines for effective delivery [30] [31] [32] . Virus-vectored vaccines share many of the advantages of LAIV, as well as those unique to the vectors. Recombinant DNA systems exist that allow ready manipulation and modification of the vector genome. This in turn enables modification of the vectors to attenuate the virus or enhance immunogenicity, in addition to adding and manipulating the influenza virus antigens. Many of these vectors have been extensively studied or used as vaccines against wild type forms of the virus. Finally, each of these vaccine vectors is either replication-defective or causes a self-limiting infection, although like LAIV, safety in immunocompromised individuals still remains a concern [4, 13, [33] [34] [35] . Table 1 summarizes the benefits and concerns of each of the virus-vectored vaccines discussed here. There are 53 serotypes of adenovirus, many of which have been explored as vaccine vectors. A live adenovirus vaccine containing serotypes 4 and 7 has been in use by the military for decades, suggesting adenoviruses may be safe for widespread vaccine use [36] . However, safety concerns have led to the majority of adenovirus-based vaccine development to focus on replication-defective vectors. Adenovirus 5 (Ad5) is the most-studied serotype, having been tested for gene delivery and anti-cancer agents, as well as for infectious disease vaccines. Adenovirus vectors are attractive as vaccine vectors because their genome is very stable and there are a variety of recombinant systems available which can accommodate up to 10 kb of recombinant genetic material [37] . Adenovirus is a non-enveloped virus which is relatively stable and can be formulated for long-term storage at 4 °C, or even storage up to six months at room temperature [33] . Adenovirus vaccines can be grown to high titers, exceeding 10 1° plaque forming units (PFU) per mL when cultured on 293 or PER.C6 cells [38] , and the virus can be purified by simple methods [39] . Adenovirus vaccines can also be delivered via multiple routes, including intramuscular injection, subcutaneous injection, intradermal injection, oral delivery using a protective capsule, and by intranasal delivery. Importantly, the latter two delivery methods induce robust mucosal immune responses and may bypass preexisting vector immunity [33] . Even replication-defective adenovirus vectors are naturally immunostimulatory and effective adjuvants to the recombinant antigen being delivered. Adenovirus has been extensively studied as a vaccine vector for human disease. The first report using adenovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza demonstrated immunogenicity of recombinant adenovirus 5 (rAd5) expressing the HA of a swine influenza virus, A/Swine/Iowa/1999 (H3N2). Intramuscular immunization of mice with this construct induced robust neutralizing antibody responses and protected mice from challenge with a heterologous virus, A/Hong Kong/1/1968 (H3N2) [40] . Replication defective rAd5 vaccines expressing influenza HA have also been tested in humans. A rAd5-HA expressing the HA from A/Puerto Rico/8/1934 (H1N1; PR8) was delivered to humans epicutaneously or intranasally and assayed for safety and immunogenicity. The vaccine was well tolerated and induced seroconversion with the intranasal administration had a higher conversion rate and higher geometric meant HI titers [41] . While clinical trials with rAd vectors have overall been successful, demonstrating safety and some level of efficacy, rAd5 as a vector has been negatively overshadowed by two clinical trial failures. The first trial was a gene therapy examination where high-dose intravenous delivery of an Ad vector resulted in the death of an 18-year-old male [42, 43] . The second clinical failure was using an Ad5-vectored HIV vaccine being tested as a part of a Step Study, a phase 2B clinical trial. In this study, individuals were vaccinated with the Ad5 vaccine vector expressing HIV-1 gag, pol, and nef genes. The vaccine induced HIV-specific T cell responses; however, the study was stopped after interim analysis suggested the vaccine did not achieve efficacy and individuals with high preexisting Ad5 antibody titers might have an increased risk of acquiring HIV-1 [44] [45] [46] . Subsequently, the rAd5 vaccine-associated risk was confirmed [47] . While these two instances do not suggest Ad-vector vaccines are unsafe or inefficacious, the umbra cast by the clinical trials notes has affected interest for all adenovirus vaccines, but interest still remains. Immunization with adenovirus vectors induces potent cellular and humoral immune responses that are initiated through toll-like receptor-dependent and independent pathways which induce robust pro-inflammatory cytokine responses. Recombinant Ad vaccines expressing HA antigens from pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1), H5 and H7 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus (HPAIV), and H9 avian influenza viruses have been tested for efficacy in a number of animal models, including chickens, mice, and ferrets, and been shown to be efficacious and provide protection from challenge [48, 49] . Several rAd5 vectors have been explored for delivery of non-HA antigens, influenza nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix 2 (M2) protein [29, [50] [51] [52] . The efficacy of non-HA antigens has led to their inclusion with HA-based vaccines to improve immunogenicity and broaden breadth of both humoral and cellular immunity [53, 54] . However, as both CD8 + T cell and neutralizing antibody responses are generated by the vector and vaccine antigens, immunological memory to these components can reduce efficacy and limit repeated use [48] . One drawback of an Ad5 vector is the potential for preexisting immunity, so alternative adenovirus serotypes have been explored as vectors, particularly non-human and uncommon human serotypes. Non-human adenovirus vectors include those from non-human primates (NHP), dogs, sheep, pigs, cows, birds and others [48, 55] . These vectors can infect a variety of cell types, but are generally attenuated in humans avoiding concerns of preexisting immunity. Swine, NHP and bovine adenoviruses expressing H5 HA antigens have been shown to induce immunity comparable to human rAd5-H5 vaccines [33, 56] . Recombinant, replication-defective adenoviruses from low-prevalence serotypes have also been shown to be efficacious. Low prevalence serotypes such as adenovirus types 3, 7, 11, and 35 can evade anti-Ad5 immune responses while maintaining effective antigen delivery and immunogenicity [48, 57] . Prime-boost strategies, using DNA or protein immunization in conjunction with an adenovirus vaccine booster immunization have also been explored as a means to avoided preexisting immunity [52] . Adeno-associated viruses (AAV) were first explored as gene therapy vectors. Like rAd vectors, rAAV have broad tropism infecting a variety of hosts, tissues, and proliferating and non-proliferating cell types [58] . AAVs had been generally not considered as vaccine vectors because they were widely considered to be poorly immunogenic. A seminal study using AAV-2 to express a HSV-2 glycoprotein showed this virus vaccine vector effectively induced potent CD8 + T cell and serum antibody responses, thereby opening the door to other rAAV vaccine-associated studies [59, 60] . AAV vector systems have a number of engaging properties. The wild type viruses are non-pathogenic and replication incompetent in humans and the recombinant AAV vector systems are even further attenuated [61] . As members of the parvovirus family, AAVs are small non-enveloped viruses that are stable and amenable to long-term storage without a cold chain. While there is limited preexisting immunity, availability of non-human strains as vaccine candidates eliminates these concerns. Modifications to the vector have increased immunogenicity, as well [60] . There are limited studies using AAVs as vaccine vectors for influenza. An AAV expressing an HA antigen was first shown to induce protective in 2001 [62] . Later, a hybrid AAV derived from two non-human primate isolates (AAVrh32.33) was used to express influenza NP and protect against PR8 challenge in mice [63] . Most recently, following the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic, rAAV vectors were generated expressing the HA, NP and matrix 1 (M1) proteins of A/Mexico/4603/2009 (pH1N1), and in murine immunization and challenge studies, the rAAV-HA and rAAV-NP were shown to be protective; however, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + NP + M1 had the most robust protection. Also, mice vaccinated with rAAV-HA + rAAV-NP + rAAV-M1 were also partially protected against heterologous (PR8, H1N1) challenge [63] . Most recently, an AAV vector was used to deliver passive immunity to influenza [64, 65] . In these studies, AAV (AAV8 and AAV9) was used to deliver an antibody transgene encoding a broadly cross-protective anti-influenza monoclonal antibody for in vivo expression. Both intramuscular and intranasal delivery of the AAVs was shown to protect against a number of influenza virus challenges in mice and ferrets, including H1N1 and H5N1 viruses [64, 65] . These studies suggest that rAAV vectors are promising vaccine and immunoprophylaxis vectors. To this point, while approximately 80 phase I, I/II, II, or III rAAV clinical trials are open, completed, or being reviewed, these have focused upon gene transfer studies and so there is as yet limited safety data for use of rAAV as vaccines [66] . Alphaviruses are positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses of the Togaviridae family. A variety of alphaviruses have been developed as vaccine vectors, including Semliki Forest virus (SFV), Sindbis (SIN) virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) virus, as well as chimeric viruses incorporating portions of SIN and VEE viruses. The replication defective vaccines or replicons do not encode viral structural proteins, having these portions of the genome replaces with transgenic material. The structural proteins are provided in cell culture production systems. One important feature of the replicon systems is the self-replicating nature of the RNA. Despite the partial viral genome, the RNAs are self-replicating and can express transgenes at very high levels [67] . SIN, SFV, and VEE have all been tested for efficacy as vaccine vectors for influenza virus [68] [69] [70] [71] . A VEE-based replicon system encoding the HA from PR8 was demonstrated to induce potent HA-specific immune response and protected from challenge in a murine model, despite repeated immunization with the vector expressing a control antigen, suggesting preexisting immunity may not be an issue for the replicon vaccine [68] . A separate study developed a VEE replicon system expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/1997 (H5N1) and demonstrated varying efficacy after in ovo vaccination or vaccination of 1-day-old chicks [70] . A recombinant SIN virus was use as a vaccine vector to deliver a CD8 + T cell epitope only. The well-characterized NP epitope was transgenically expressed in the SIN system and shown to be immunogenic in mice, priming a robust CD8 + T cell response and reducing influenza virus titer after challenge [69] . More recently, a VEE replicon system expressing the HA protein of PR8 was shown to protect young adult (8-week-old) and aged (12-month-old) mice from lethal homologous challenge [72] . The VEE replicon systems are particularly appealing as the VEE targets antigen-presenting cells in the lymphatic tissues, priming rapid and robust immune responses [73] . VEE replicon systems can induce robust mucosal immune responses through intranasal or subcutaneous immunization [72] [73] [74] , and subcutaneous immunization with virus-like replicon particles (VRP) expressing HA-induced antigen-specific systemic IgG and fecal IgA antibodies [74] . VRPs derived from VEE virus have been developed as candidate vaccines for cytomegalovirus (CMV). A phase I clinical trial with the CMV VRP showed the vaccine was immunogenic, inducing CMV-neutralizing antibody responses and potent T cell responses. Moreover, the vaccine was well tolerated and considered safe [75] . A separate clinical trial assessed efficacy of repeated immunization with a VRP expressing a tumor antigen. The vaccine was safe and despite high vector-specific immunity after initial immunization, continued to boost transgene-specific immune responses upon boost [76] . While additional clinical data is needed, these reports suggest alphavirus replicon systems or VRPs may be safe and efficacious, even in the face of preexisting immunity. Baculovirus has been extensively used to produce recombinant proteins. Recently, a baculovirus-derived recombinant HA vaccine was approved for human use and was first available for use in the United States for the 2013-2014 influenza season [4] . Baculoviruses have also been explored as vaccine vectors. Baculoviruses have a number of advantages as vaccine vectors. The viruses have been extensively studied for protein expression and for pesticide use and so are readily manipulated. The vectors can accommodate large gene insertions, show limited cytopathic effect in mammalian cells, and have been shown to infect and express genes of interest in a spectrum of mammalian cells [77] . While the insect promoters are not effective for mammalian gene expression, appropriate promoters can be cloned into the baculovirus vaccine vectors. Baculovirus vectors have been tested as influenza vaccines, with the first reported vaccine using Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcNPV) expressing the HA of PR8 under control of the CAG promoter (AcCAG-HA) [77] . Intramuscular, intranasal, intradermal, and intraperitoneal immunization or mice with AcCAG-HA elicited HA-specific antibody responses, however only intranasal immunization provided protection from lethal challenge. Interestingly, intranasal immunization with the wild type AcNPV also resulted in protection from PR8 challenge. The robust innate immune response to the baculovirus provided non-specific protection from subsequent influenza virus infection [78] . While these studies did not demonstrate specific protection, there were antigen-specific immune responses and potential adjuvant effects by the innate response. Baculovirus pseudotype viruses have also been explored. The G protein of vesicular stomatitis virus controlled by the insect polyhedron promoter and the HA of A/Chicken/Hubei/327/2004 (H5N1) HPAIV controlled by a CMV promoter were used to generate the BV-G-HA. Intramuscular immunization of mice or chickens with BV-G-HA elicited strong HI and VN serum antibody responses, IFN-γ responses, and protected from H5N1 challenge [79] . A separate study demonstrated efficacy using a bivalent pseudotyped baculovirus vector [80] . Baculovirus has also been used to generate an inactivated particle vaccine. The HA of A/Indonesia/CDC669/2006(H5N1) was incorporated into a commercial baculovirus vector controlled by the e1 promoter from White Spot Syndrome Virus. The resulting recombinant virus was propagated in insect (Sf9) cells and inactivated as a particle vaccine [81, 82] . Intranasal delivery with cholera toxin B as an adjuvant elicited robust HI titers and protected from lethal challenge [81] . Oral delivery of this encapsulated vaccine induced robust serum HI titers and mucosal IgA titers in mice, and protected from H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, co-formulations of inactivated baculovirus vectors have also been shown to be effective in mice [83] . While there is growing data on the potential use of baculovirus or pseudotyped baculovirus as a vaccine vector, efficacy data in mammalian animal models other than mice is lacking. There is also no data on the safety in humans, reducing enthusiasm for baculovirus as a vaccine vector for influenza at this time. Newcastle disease virus (NDV) is a single-stranded, negative-sense RNA virus that causes disease in poultry. NDV has a number of appealing qualities as a vaccine vector. As an avian virus, there is little or no preexisting immunity to NDV in humans and NDV propagates to high titers in both chicken eggs and cell culture. As a paramyxovirus, there is no DNA phase in the virus lifecycle reducing concerns of integration events, and the levels of gene expression are driven by the proximity to the leader sequence at the 3' end of the viral genome. This gradient of gene expression enables attenuation through rearrangement of the genome, or by insertion of transgenes within the genome. Finally, pathogenicity of NDV is largely determined by features of the fusion protein enabling ready attenuation of the vaccine vector [84] . Reverse genetics, a method that allows NDV to be rescued from plasmids expressing the viral RNA polymerase and nucleocapsid proteins, was first reported in 1999 [85, 86] . This process has enabled manipulation of the NDV genome as well as incorporation of transgenes and the development of NDV vectors. Influenza was the first infectious disease targeted with a recombinant NDV (rNDV) vector. The HA protein of A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was inserted into the Hitchner B1 vaccine strain. The HA protein was expressed on infected cells and was incorporated into infectious virions. While the virus was attenuated compared to the parental vaccine strain, it induced a robust serum antibody response and protected against homologous influenza virus challenge in a murine model of infection [87] . Subsequently, rNDV was tested as a vaccine vector for HPAIV having varying efficacy against H5 and H7 influenza virus infections in poultry [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] . These vaccines have the added benefit of potentially providing protection against both the influenza virus and NDV infection. NDV has also been explored as a vaccine vector for humans. Two NHP studies assessed the immunogenicity and efficacy of an rNDV expressing the HA or NA of A/Vietnam/1203/2004 (H5N1; VN1203) [95, 96] . Intranasal and intratracheal delivery of the rNDV-HA or rNDV-NA vaccines induced both serum and mucosal antibody responses and protected from HPAIV challenge [95, 96] . NDV has limited clinical data; however, phase I and phase I/II clinical trials have shown that the NDV vector is well-tolerated, even at high doses delivered intravenously [44, 97] . While these results are promising, additional studies are needed to advance NDV as a human vaccine vector for influenza. Parainfluenza virus type 5 (PIV5) is a paramyxovirus vaccine vector being explored for delivery of influenza and other infectious disease vaccine antigens. PIV5 has only recently been described as a vaccine vector [98] . Similar to other RNA viruses, PIV5 has a number of features that make it an attractive vaccine vector. For example, PIV5 has a stable RNA genome and no DNA phase in virus replication cycle reducing concerns of host genome integration or modification. PIV5 can be grown to very high titers in mammalian vaccine cell culture substrates and is not cytopathic allowing for extended culture and harvest of vaccine virus [98, 99] . Like NDV, PIV5 has a 3'-to 5' gradient of gene expression and insertion of transgenes at different locations in the genome can variably attenuate the virus and alter transgene expression [100] . PIV5 has broad tropism, infecting many cell types, tissues, and species without causing clinical disease, although PIV5 has been associated with -kennel cough‖ in dogs [99] . A reverse genetics system for PIV5 was first used to insert the HA gene from A/Udorn/307/72 (H3N2) into the PIV5 genome between the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene and the large (L) polymerase gene. Similar to NDV, the HA was expressed at high levels in infected cells and replicated similarly to the wild type virus, and importantly, was not pathogenic in immunodeficient mice [98] . Additionally, a single intranasal immunization in a murine model of influenza infection was shown to induce neutralizing antibody responses and protect against a virus expressing homologous HA protein [98] . PIV5 has also been explored as a vaccine against HPAIV. Recombinant PIV5 vaccines expressing the HA or NP from VN1203 were tested for efficacy in a murine challenge model. Mice intranasally vaccinated with a single dose of PIV5-H5 vaccine had robust serum and mucosal antibody responses, and were protected from lethal challenge. Notably, although cellular immune responses appeared to contribute to protection, serum antibody was sufficient for protection from challenge [100, 101] . Intramuscular immunization with PIV5-H5 was also shown to be effective at inducing neutralizing antibody responses and protecting against lethal influenza virus challenge [101] . PIV5 expressing the NP protein of HPAIV was also efficacious in the murine immunization and challenge model, where a single intranasal immunization induced robust CD8 + T cell responses and protected against homologous (H5N1) and heterosubtypic (H1N1) virus challenge [102] . Currently there is no clinical safety data for use of PIV5 in humans. However, live PIV5 has been a component of veterinary vaccines for -kennel cough‖ for >30 years, and veterinarians and dog owners are exposed to live PIV5 without reported disease [99] . This combined with preclinical data from a variety of animal models suggests that PIV5 as a vector is likely to be safe in humans. As preexisting immunity is a concern for all virus-vectored vaccines, it should be noted that there is no data on the levels of preexisting immunity to PIV5 in humans. However, a study evaluating the efficacy of a PIV5-H3 vaccine in canines previously vaccinated against PIV5 (kennel cough) showed induction of robust anti-H3 serum antibody responses as well as high serum antibody levels to the PIV5 vaccine, suggesting preexisting immunity to the PIV5 vector may not affect immunogenicity of vaccines even with repeated use [99] . Poxvirus vaccines have a long history and the notable hallmark of being responsible for eradication of smallpox. The termination of the smallpox virus vaccination program has resulted in a large population of poxvirus-naï ve individuals that provides the opportunity for the use of poxviruses as vectors without preexisting immunity concerns [103] . Poxvirus-vectored vaccines were first proposed for use in 1982 with two reports of recombinant vaccinia viruses encoding and expressing functional thymidine kinase gene from herpes virus [104, 105] . Within a year, a vaccinia virus encoding the HA of an H2N2 virus was shown to express a functional HA protein (cleaved in the HA1 and HA2 subunits) and be immunogenic in rabbits and hamsters [106] . Subsequently, all ten of the primary influenza proteins have been expressed in vaccine virus [107] . Early work with intact vaccinia virus vectors raised safety concerns, as there was substantial reactogenicity that hindered recombinant vaccine development [108] . Two vaccinia vectors were developed to address these safety concerns. The modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) strain was attenuated by passage 530 times in chick embryo fibroblasts cultures. The second, New York vaccinia virus (NYVAC) was a plaque-purified clone of the Copenhagen vaccine strain rationally attenuated by deletion of 18 open reading frames [109] [110] [111] . Modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) was developed prior to smallpox eradication to reduce or prevent adverse effects of other smallpox vaccines [109] . Serial tissue culture passage of MVA resulted in loss of 15% of the genome, and established a growth restriction for avian cells. The defects affected late stages in virus assembly in non-avian cells, a feature enabling use of the vector as single-round expression vector in non-permissive hosts. Interestingly, over two decades ago, recombinant MVA expressing the HA and NP of influenza virus was shown to be effective against lethal influenza virus challenge in a murine model [112] . Subsequently, MVA expressing various antigens from seasonal, pandemic (A/California/04/2009, pH1N1), equine (A/Equine/Kentucky/1/81 H3N8), and HPAI (VN1203) viruses have been shown to be efficacious in murine, ferret, NHP, and equine challenge models [113] . MVA vaccines are very effective stimulators of both cellular and humoral immunity. For example, abortive infection provides native expression of the influenza antigens enabling robust antibody responses to native surface viral antigens. Concurrently, the intracellular influenza peptides expressed by the pox vector enter the class I MHC antigen processing and presentation pathway enabling induction of CD8 + T cell antiviral responses. MVA also induces CD4 + T cell responses further contributing to the magnitude of the antigen-specific effector functions [107, [112] [113] [114] [115] . MVA is also a potent activator of early innate immune responses further enhancing adaptive immune responses [116] . Between early smallpox vaccine development and more recent vaccine vector development, MVA has undergone extensive safety testing and shown to be attenuated in severely immunocompromised animals and safe for use in children, adults, elderly, and immunocompromised persons. With extensive pre-clinical data, recombinant MVA vaccines expressing influenza antigens have been tested in clinical trials and been shown to be safe and immunogenic in humans [117] [118] [119] . These results combined with data from other (non-influenza) clinical and pre-clinical studies support MVA as a leading viral-vectored candidate vaccine. The NYVAC vector is a highly attenuated vaccinia virus strain. NYVAC is replication-restricted; however, it grows in chick embryo fibroblasts and Vero cells enabling vaccine-scale production. In non-permissive cells, critical late structural proteins are not produced stopping replication at the immature virion stage [120] . NYVAC is very attenuated and considered safe for use in humans of all ages; however, it predominantly induces a CD4 + T cell response which is different compared to MVA [114] . Both MVA and NYVAC provoke robust humoral responses, and can be delivered mucosally to induce mucosal antibody responses [121] . There has been only limited exploration of NYVAC as a vaccine vector for influenza virus; however, a vaccine expressing the HA from A/chicken/Indonesia/7/2003 (H5N1) was shown to induce potent neutralizing antibody responses and protect against challenge in swine [122] . While there is strong safety and efficacy data for use of NYVAC or MVA-vectored influenza vaccines, preexisting immunity remains a concern. Although the smallpox vaccination campaign has resulted in a population of poxvirus-naï ve people, the initiation of an MVA or NYVAC vaccination program for HIV, influenza or other pathogens will rapidly reduce this susceptible population. While there is significant interest in development of pox-vectored influenza virus vaccines, current influenza vaccination strategies rely upon regular immunization with vaccines matched to circulating strains. This would likely limit the use and/or efficacy of poxvirus-vectored influenza virus vaccines for regular and seasonal use [13] . Intriguingly, NYVAC may have an advantage for use as an influenza vaccine vector, because immunization with this vector induces weaker vaccine-specific immune responses compared to other poxvirus vaccines, a feature that may address the concerns surrounding preexisting immunity [123] . While poxvirus-vectored vaccines have not yet been approved for use in humans, there is a growing list of licensed poxvirus for veterinary use that include fowlpox-and canarypox-vectored vaccines for avian and equine influenza viruses, respectively [124, 125] . The fowlpox-vectored vaccine expressing the avian influenza virus HA antigen has the added benefit of providing protection against fowlpox infection. Currently, at least ten poxvirus-vectored vaccines have been licensed for veterinary use [126] . These poxvirus vectors have the potential for use as vaccine vectors in humans, similar to the first use of cowpox for vaccination against smallpox [127] . The availability of these non-human poxvirus vectors with extensive animal safety and efficacy data may address the issues with preexisting immunity to the human vaccine strains, although the cross-reactivity originally described with cowpox could also limit use. Influenza vaccines utilizing vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a rhabdovirus, as a vaccine vector have a number of advantages shared with other RNA virus vaccine vectors. Both live and replication-defective VSV vaccine vectors have been shown to be immunogenic [128, 129] , and like Paramyxoviridae, the Rhabdoviridae genome has a 3'-to-5' gradient of gene expression enabling attention by selective vaccine gene insertion or genome rearrangement [130] . VSV has a number of other advantages including broad tissue tropism, and the potential for intramuscular or intranasal immunization. The latter delivery method enables induction of mucosal immunity and elimination of needles required for vaccination. Also, there is little evidence of VSV seropositivity in humans eliminating concerns of preexisting immunity, although repeated use may be a concern. Also, VSV vaccine can be produced using existing mammalian vaccine manufacturing cell lines. Influenza antigens were first expressed in a VSV vector in 1997. Both the HA and NA were shown to be expressed as functional proteins and incorporated into the recombinant VSV particles [131] . Subsequently, VSV-HA, expressing the HA protein from A/WSN/1933 (H1N1) was shown to be immunogenic and protect mice from lethal influenza virus challenge [129] . To reduce safety concerns, attenuated VSV vectors were developed. One candidate vaccine had a truncated VSV G protein, while a second candidate was deficient in G protein expression and relied on G protein expressed by a helper vaccine cell line to the provide the virus receptor. Both vectors were found to be attenuated in mice, but maintained immunogenicity [128] . More recently, single-cycle replicating VSV vaccines have been tested for efficacy against H5N1 HPAIV. VSV vectors expressing the HA from A/Hong Kong/156/97 (H5N1) were shown to be immunogenic and induce cross-reactive antibody responses and protect against challenge with heterologous H5N1 challenge in murine and NHP models [132] [133] [134] . VSV vectors are not without potential concerns. VSV can cause disease in a number of species, including humans [135] . The virus is also potentially neuroinvasive in some species [136] , although NHP studies suggest this is not a concern in humans [137] . Also, while the incorporation of the influenza antigen in to the virion may provide some benefit in immunogenicity, changes in tropism or attenuation could arise from incorporation of different influenza glycoproteins. There is no evidence for this, however [134] . Currently, there is no human safety data for VSV-vectored vaccines. While experimental data is promising, additional work is needed before consideration for human influenza vaccination. Current influenza vaccines rely on matching the HA antigen of the vaccine with circulating strains to provide strain-specific neutralizing antibody responses [4, 14, 24] . There is significant interest in developing universal influenza vaccines that would not require annual reformulation to provide protective robust and durable immunity. These vaccines rely on generating focused immune responses to highly conserved portions of the virus that are refractory to mutation [30] [31] [32] . Traditional vaccines may not be suitable for these vaccination strategies; however, vectored vaccines that have the ability to be readily modified and to express transgenes are compatible for these applications. The NP and M2 proteins have been explored as universal vaccine antigens for decades. Early work with recombinant viral vectors demonstrated that immunization with vaccines expressing influenza antigens induced potent CD8 + T cell responses [107, [138] [139] [140] [141] . These responses, even to the HA antigen, could be cross-protective [138] . A number of studies have shown that immunization with NP expressed by AAV, rAd5, alphavirus vectors, MVA, or other vector systems induces potent CD8 + T cell responses and protects against influenza virus challenge [52, 63, 69, 102, 139, 142] . As the NP protein is highly conserved across influenza A viruses, NP-specific T cells can protect against heterologous and even heterosubtypic virus challenges [30] . The M2 protein is also highly conserved and expressed on the surface of infected cells, although to a lesser extent on the surface of virus particles [30] . Much of the vaccine work in this area has focused on virus-like or subunit particles expressing the M2 ectodomain; however, studies utilizing a DNA-prime, rAd-boost strategies to vaccinate against the entire M2 protein have shown the antigen to be immunogenic and protective [50] . In these studies, antibodies to the M2 protein protected against homologous and heterosubtypic challenge, including a H5N1 HPAIV challenge. More recently, NP and M2 have been combined to induce broadly cross-reactive CD8 + T cell and antibody responses, and rAd5 vaccines expressing these antigens have been shown to protect against pH1N1 and H5N1 challenges [29, 51] . Historically, the HA has not been widely considered as a universal vaccine antigen. However, the recent identification of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies that cross-react with many subtypes of influenza virus [143] has presented the opportunity to design vaccine antigens to prime focused antibody responses to the highly conserved regions recognized by these monoclonal antibodies. The majority of these broadly cross-reactive antibodies recognize regions on the stalk of the HA protein [143] . The HA stalk is generally less immunogenic compared to the globular head of the HA protein so most approaches have utilized -headless‖ HA proteins as immunogens. HA stalk vaccines have been designed using DNA and virus-like particles [144] and MVA [142] ; however, these approaches are amenable to expression in any of the viruses vectors described here. The goal of any vaccine is to protect against infection and disease, while inducing population-based immunity to reduce or eliminate virus transmission within the population. It is clear that currently licensed influenza vaccines have not fully met these goals, nor those specific to inducing long-term, robust immunity. There are a number of vaccine-related issues that must be addressed before population-based influenza vaccination strategies are optimized. The concept of a -one size fits all‖ vaccine needs to be updated, given the recent ability to probe the virus-host interface through RNA interference approaches that facilitate the identification of host genes affecting virus replication, immunity, and disease. There is also a need for revision of the current influenza virus vaccine strategies for at-risk populations, particularly those at either end of the age spectrum. An example of an improved vaccine regime might include the use of a vectored influenza virus vaccine that expresses the HA, NA and M and/or NP proteins for the two currently circulating influenza A subtypes and both influenza B strains so that vaccine take and vaccine antigen levels are not an issue in inducing protective immunity. Recombinant live-attenuated or replication-deficient influenza viruses may offer an advantage for this and other approaches. Vectored vaccines can be constructed to express full-length influenza virus proteins, as well as generate conformationally restricted epitopes, features critical in generating appropriate humoral protection. Inclusion of internal influenza antigens in a vectored vaccine can also induce high levels of protective cellular immunity. To generate sustained immunity, it is an advantage to induce immunity at sites of inductive immunity to natural infection, in this case the respiratory tract. Several vectored vaccines target the respiratory tract. Typically, vectored vaccines generate antigen for weeks after immunization, in contrast to subunit vaccination. This increased presence and level of vaccine antigen contributes to and helps sustain a durable memory immune response, even augmenting the selection of higher affinity antibody secreting cells. The enhanced memory response is in part linked to the intrinsic augmentation of immunity induced by the vector. Thus, for weaker antigens typical of HA, vectored vaccines have the capacity to overcome real limitations in achieving robust and durable protection. Meeting the mandates of seasonal influenza vaccine development is difficult, and to respond to a pandemic strain is even more challenging. Issues with influenza vaccine strain selection based on recently circulating viruses often reflect recommendations by the World Health Organization (WHO)-a process that is cumbersome. The strains of influenza A viruses to be used in vaccine manufacture are not wild-type viruses but rather reassortants that are hybrid viruses containing at least the HA and NA gene segments from the target strains and other gene segments from the master strain, PR8, which has properties of high growth in fertilized hen's eggs. This additional process requires more time and quality control, and specifically for HPAI viruses, it is a process that may fail because of the nature of those viruses. In contrast, viral-vectored vaccines are relatively easy to manipulate and produce, and have well-established safety profiles. There are several viral-based vectors currently employed as antigen delivery systems, including poxviruses, adenoviruses baculovirus, paramyxovirus, rhabdovirus, and others; however, the majority of human clinical trials assessing viral-vectored influenza vaccines use poxvirus and adenovirus vectors. While each of these vector approaches has unique features and is in different stages of development, the combined successes of these approaches supports the virus-vectored vaccine approach as a whole. Issues such as preexisting immunity and cold chain requirements, and lingering safety concerns will have to be overcome; however, each approach is making progress in addressing these issues, and all of the approaches are still viable. Virus-vectored vaccines hold particular promise for vaccination with universal or focused antigens where traditional vaccination methods are not suited to efficacious delivery of these antigens. The most promising approaches currently in development are arguably those targeting conserved HA stalk region epitopes. Given the findings to date, virus-vectored vaccines hold great promise and may overcome the current limitations of influenza vaccines.

What is a characteristic of LAIV?

Nearly Complete Genome Sequence of an Echovirus 30 Strain from a Cluster of Aseptic Meningitis Cases in California, September 2017 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6953510/ SHA: f0c4d40e1879dd1a049298f151940ac168b5f5a7 Authors: Pan, Chao-Yang; Huynh, Thalia; Padilla, Tasha; Chen, Alice; Ng, Terry Fei Fan; Marine, Rachel L.; Castro, Christina J.; Nix, W. Allan; Wadford, Debra A. Date: 2019-10-31 DOI: 10.1128/mra.01085-19 License: cc-by Abstract: We report the nearly complete genome sequence of a human enterovirus, a strain of echovirus 30, obtained from a cerebrospinal fluid specimen from a teenaged patient with aseptic meningitis in September 2017. Text: E choviruses are members of the Enterovirus B species of the Enterovirus (EV) genus in the Picornaviridae family of nonenveloped, single-stranded, positive-sense RNA viruses. Echoviruses were named from the acronym enteric cytopathic human orphan virus at the time of their discovery in the 1950s but were later found to be associated with respiratory illness, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, and aseptic meningitis, similar to other enteroviruses (1) . According to the California Code of Regulations, meningitis cases are reportable to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) within 1 day of identification of etiology (2) . In the fall of 2017, a cluster of aseptic meningitis cases from a northern California high school were reported to the CDPH. The Viral and Rickettsial Disease Laboratory (VRDL) at the CDPH detected EV from 19 of 30 patients (63%) by real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR), as previously described (3) . We generated and analyzed partial capsid (viral protein 1 [VP1]) sequences using methods developed by Minnaar et al. (4) . Fifteen of 19 (79%) EV-positive patients were confirmed to have echovirus 30 (E-30), using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples. This cluster of E-30 meningitis cases is similar to previously reported E-30 aseptic meningitis cases (5, 6) in symptoms and epidemiology. Here, we report a nearly complete genome sequence from one of the E-30-positive CSF specimens. The CSF was processed by centrifugation, 0.45-m filtration, and nuclease treatment prior to extraction using the NucliSENS easyMAG system (bioMérieux, Durham, NC) (7). The extracted nucleic acids were then treated with DNase to yield RNA, which was subjected to random reverse transcription and PCR (7) . The next-generation sequencing (NGS) library was prepared using a Nextera XT kit and sequenced on a MiSeq platform 300-cycle paired-end run (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The NGS data were analyzed using an in-house Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) pipeline which involves the removal of host sequences using bowtie2/2.3.3.1, primer removal, low-quality (below Q20) and read length (Ͻ50 nucleotides) filtering using cutadapt 1.18, read duplication removal using a Dedup.py script, de novo assembly using SPAdes 3.7 default parameters, and BLAST search of the resultant contigs (8) . There were a total of 141,329 postprocessing FASTQ reads. The final consensus genome was inspected and annotated using Geneious v10.0.9 (9) . The contig was built from 15,712 reads, assembled to an E-30 reference genome (GenBank accession number JX976773), and deemed nearly complete by comparison to the reference, and the termini were determined as part of the protocol (7). The total GC content is 48.3% for 7,155 bases. The average read coverage was 260-fold for the E-30 genome. The genome sequence was designated E-30 USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005. Its VP1 sequence was confirmed by the CDC Picornavirus Laboratory to be nearly identical to those of E-30s identified in an aseptic meningitis outbreak that occurred in the fall of 2017 in Nevada; it also has greater than 99% nucleotide identity to the VP1 sequences of E-30 strains from the southern United States identified by the CDC in May 2017 (GenBank accession numbers MG584831 and MG584832), as measured using the online version of blastn (https://blast.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/Blast.cgi). The genome sequence of E-30 USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005 shares less than 89% nucleotide identity (NI) and less than 98% amino acid identity (AI) with other publicly available E-30 sequences. The sequence contains the complete protein-coding region, with short sections in the untranslated regions (UTRs) missing due to a lack of read coverage (approximately 182 and 90 nucleotides of the 5= and 3= UTRs, respectively). The enterovirus polyprotein can be divided into one structural (P1-capsid) and two nonstructural (P2 and P3) regions. The polyprotein regions of the E-30 genome reported here share 96%, 88%, and 84% NI (P1, P2, and P3, respectively) with other E-30 sequences in GenBank. Data availability. The E-30 sequence of USA/2017/CA-RGDS-1005 has been deposited in GenBank under the accession number MK238483. The quality-filtered FASTQ reads have been deposited in the Sequence Read Archive with the run accession number SRR10082176. The contributions of the California Department of Public Health Viral and Rickettsial Disease Laboratory were supported in part by the Epidemiology and Laboratory Capacity for Infectious Diseases Cooperative Agreement number 6 NU50CK000410 from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This work was partly funded by federal appropriations to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, through the Advanced Molecular Detection Initiative line item. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

What type of reference genome was used in the study?

Respiratory Viral Infections in Exacerbation of Chronic Airway Inflammatory Diseases: Novel Mechanisms and Insights From the Upper Airway Epithelium https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7052386/ SHA: 45a566c71056ba4faab425b4f7e9edee6320e4a4 Authors: Tan, Kai Sen; Lim, Rachel Liyu; Liu, Jing; Ong, Hsiao Hui; Tan, Vivian Jiayi; Lim, Hui Fang; Chung, Kian Fan; Adcock, Ian M.; Chow, Vincent T.; Wang, De Yun Date: 2020-02-25 DOI: 10.3389/fcell.2020.00099 License: cc-by Abstract: Respiratory virus infection is one of the major sources of exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. These exacerbations are associated with high morbidity and even mortality worldwide. The current understanding on viral-induced exacerbations is that viral infection increases airway inflammation which aggravates disease symptoms. Recent advances in in vitro air-liquid interface 3D cultures, organoid cultures and the use of novel human and animal challenge models have evoked new understandings as to the mechanisms of viral exacerbations. In this review, we will focus on recent novel findings that elucidate how respiratory viral infections alter the epithelial barrier in the airways, the upper airway microbial environment, epigenetic modifications including miRNA modulation, and other changes in immune responses throughout the upper and lower airways. First, we reviewed the prevalence of different respiratory viral infections in causing exacerbations in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Subsequently we also summarized how recent models have expanded our appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbations. Further we highlighted the importance of the virome within the airway microbiome environment and its impact on subsequent bacterial infection. This review consolidates the understanding of viral induced exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases and indicates pathways that may be targeted for more effective management of chronic inflammatory diseases. Text: The prevalence of chronic airway inflammatory disease is increasing worldwide especially in developed nations (GBD 2015 Chronic Respiratory Disease Collaborators, 2017 Guan et al., 2018) . This disease is characterized by airway inflammation leading to complications such as coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath. The disease can manifest in both the upper airway (such as chronic rhinosinusitis, CRS) and lower airway (such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD) which greatly affect the patients' quality of life (Calus et al., 2012; Bao et al., 2015) . Treatment and management vary greatly in efficacy due to the complexity and heterogeneity of the disease. This is further complicated by the effect of episodic exacerbations of the disease, defined as worsening of disease symptoms including wheeze, cough, breathlessness and chest tightness (Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010) . Such exacerbations are due to the effect of enhanced acute airway inflammation impacting upon and worsening the symptoms of the existing disease (Hashimoto et al., 2008; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These acute exacerbations are the main cause of morbidity and sometimes mortality in patients, as well as resulting in major economic burdens worldwide. However, due to the complex interactions between the host and the exacerbation agents, the mechanisms of exacerbation may vary considerably in different individuals under various triggers. Acute exacerbations are usually due to the presence of environmental factors such as allergens, pollutants, smoke, cold or dry air and pathogenic microbes in the airway (Gautier and Charpin, 2017; Viniol and Vogelmeier, 2018) . These agents elicit an immune response leading to infiltration of activated immune cells that further release inflammatory mediators that cause acute symptoms such as increased mucus production, cough, wheeze and shortness of breath. Among these agents, viral infection is one of the major drivers of asthma exacerbations accounting for up to 80-90% and 45-80% of exacerbations in children and adults respectively (Grissell et al., 2005; Xepapadaki and Papadopoulos, 2010; Jartti and Gern, 2017; Adeli et al., 2019) . Viral involvement in COPD exacerbation is also equally high, having been detected in 30-80% of acute COPD exacerbations (Kherad et al., 2010; Jafarinejad et al., 2017; Stolz et al., 2019) . Whilst the prevalence of viral exacerbations in CRS is still unclear, its prevalence is likely to be high due to the similar inflammatory nature of these diseases (Rowan et al., 2015; Tan et al., 2017) . One of the reasons for the involvement of respiratory viruses' in exacerbations is their ease of transmission and infection (Kutter et al., 2018) . In addition, the high diversity of the respiratory viruses may also contribute to exacerbations of different nature and severity (Busse et al., 2010; Costa et al., 2014; Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Hence, it is important to identify the exact mechanisms underpinning viral exacerbations in susceptible subjects in order to properly manage exacerbations via supplementary treatments that may alleviate the exacerbation symptoms or prevent severe exacerbations. While the lower airway is the site of dysregulated inflammation in most chronic airway inflammatory diseases, the upper airway remains the first point of contact with sources of exacerbation. Therefore, their interaction with the exacerbation agents may directly contribute to the subsequent responses in the lower airway, in line with the "United Airway" hypothesis. To elucidate the host airway interaction with viruses leading to exacerbations, we thus focus our review on recent findings of viral interaction with the upper airway. We compiled how viral induced changes to the upper airway may contribute to chronic airway inflammatory disease exacerbations, to provide a unified elucidation of the potential exacerbation mechanisms initiated from predominantly upper airway infections. Despite being a major cause of exacerbation, reports linking respiratory viruses to acute exacerbations only start to emerge in the late 1950s (Pattemore et al., 1992) ; with bacterial infections previously considered as the likely culprit for acute exacerbation (Stevens, 1953; Message and Johnston, 2002) . However, with the advent of PCR technology, more viruses were recovered during acute exacerbations events and reports implicating their role emerged in the late 1980s (Message and Johnston, 2002) . Rhinovirus (RV) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are the predominant viruses linked to the development and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Jartti and Gern, 2017) . Other viruses such as parainfluenza virus (PIV), influenza virus (IFV) and adenovirus (AdV) have also been implicated in acute exacerbations but to a much lesser extent (Johnston et al., 2005; Oliver et al., 2014; Ko et al., 2019) . More recently, other viruses including bocavirus (BoV), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), certain coronavirus (CoV) strains, a specific enterovirus (EV) strain EV-D68, human cytomegalovirus (hCMV) and herpes simplex virus (HSV) have been reported as contributing to acute exacerbations . The common feature these viruses share is that they can infect both the upper and/or lower airway, further increasing the inflammatory conditions in the diseased airway (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Britto et al., 2017) . Respiratory viruses primarily infect and replicate within airway epithelial cells . During the replication process, the cells release antiviral factors and cytokines that alter local airway inflammation and airway niche (Busse et al., 2010) . In a healthy airway, the inflammation normally leads to type 1 inflammatory responses consisting of activation of an antiviral state and infiltration of antiviral effector cells. This eventually results in the resolution of the inflammatory response and clearance of the viral infection (Vareille et al., 2011; Braciale et al., 2012) . However, in a chronically inflamed airway, the responses against the virus may be impaired or aberrant, causing sustained inflammation and erroneous infiltration, resulting in the exacerbation of their symptoms (Mallia and Johnston, 2006; Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Britto et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2019) . This is usually further compounded by the increased susceptibility of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients toward viral respiratory infections, thereby increasing the frequency of exacerbation as a whole (Dougherty and Fahy, 2009; Busse et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . Furthermore, due to the different replication cycles and response against the myriad of respiratory viruses, each respiratory virus may also contribute to exacerbations via different mechanisms that may alter their severity. Hence, this review will focus on compiling and collating the current known mechanisms of viral-induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases; as well as linking the different viral infection pathogenesis to elucidate other potential ways the infection can exacerbate the disease. The review will serve to provide further understanding of viral induced exacerbation to identify potential pathways and pathogenesis mechanisms that may be targeted as supplementary care for management and prevention of exacerbation. Such an approach may be clinically significant due to the current scarcity of antiviral drugs for the management of viral-induced exacerbations. This will improve the quality of life of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Once the link between viral infection and acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory disease was established, there have been many reports on the mechanisms underlying the exacerbation induced by respiratory viral infection. Upon infecting the host, viruses evoke an inflammatory response as a means of counteracting the infection. Generally, infected airway epithelial cells release type I (IFNα/β) and type III (IFNλ) interferons, cytokines and chemokines such as IL-6, IL-8, IL-12, RANTES, macrophage inflammatory protein 1α (MIP-1α) and monocyte chemotactic protein 1 (MCP-1) (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Matsukura et al., 2013) . These, in turn, enable infiltration of innate immune cells and of professional antigen presenting cells (APCs) that will then in turn release specific mediators to facilitate viral targeting and clearance, including type II interferon (IFNγ), IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-9, and IL-12 (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Braciale et al., 2012) . These factors heighten local inflammation and the infiltration of granulocytes, T-cells and B-cells (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Braciale et al., 2012) . The increased inflammation, in turn, worsens the symptoms of airway diseases. Additionally, in patients with asthma and patients with CRS with nasal polyp (CRSwNP), viral infections such as RV and RSV promote a Type 2-biased immune response (Becker, 2006; Jackson et al., 2014; Jurak et al., 2018) . This amplifies the basal type 2 inflammation resulting in a greater release of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13, RANTES and eotaxin and a further increase in eosinophilia, a key pathological driver of asthma and CRSwNP (Wark and Gibson, 2006; Singh et al., 2010; Chung et al., 2015; Dunican and Fahy, 2015) . Increased eosinophilia, in turn, worsens the classical symptoms of disease and may further lead to life-threatening conditions due to breathing difficulties. On the other hand, patients with COPD and patients with CRS without nasal polyp (CRSsNP) are more neutrophilic in nature due to the expression of neutrophil chemoattractants such as CXCL9, CXCL10, and CXCL11 (Cukic et al., 2012; Brightling and Greening, 2019) . The pathology of these airway diseases is characterized by airway remodeling due to the presence of remodeling factors such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) released from infiltrating neutrophils (Linden et al., 2019) . Viral infections in such conditions will then cause increase neutrophilic activation; worsening the symptoms and airway remodeling in the airway thereby exacerbating COPD, CRSsNP and even CRSwNP in certain cases (Wang et al., 2009; Tacon et al., 2010; Linden et al., 2019) . An epithelial-centric alarmin pathway around IL-25, IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP), and their interaction with group 2 innate lymphoid cells (ILC2) has also recently been identified (Nagarkar et al., 2012; Hong et al., 2018; Allinne et al., 2019) . IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP are type 2 inflammatory cytokines expressed by the epithelial cells upon injury to the epithelial barrier (Gabryelska et al., 2019; Roan et al., 2019) . ILC2s are a group of lymphoid cells lacking both B and T cell receptors but play a crucial role in secreting type 2 cytokines to perpetuate type 2 inflammation when activated (Scanlon and McKenzie, 2012; Li and Hendriks, 2013) . In the event of viral infection, cell death and injury to the epithelial barrier will also induce the expression of IL-25, IL-33 and TSLP, with heighten expression in an inflamed airway (Allakhverdi et al., 2007; Goldsmith et al., 2012; Byers et al., 2013; Shaw et al., 2013; Beale et al., 2014; Jackson et al., 2014; Uller and Persson, 2018; Ravanetti et al., 2019) . These 3 cytokines then work in concert to activate ILC2s to further secrete type 2 cytokines IL-4, IL-5, and IL-13 which further aggravate the type 2 inflammation in the airway causing acute exacerbation (Camelo et al., 2017) . In the case of COPD, increased ILC2 activation, which retain the capability of differentiating to ILC1, may also further augment the neutrophilic response and further aggravate the exacerbation (Silver et al., 2016) . Interestingly, these factors are not released to any great extent and do not activate an ILC2 response during viral infection in healthy individuals (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) ; despite augmenting a type 2 exacerbation in chronically inflamed airways (Jurak et al., 2018) . These classical mechanisms of viral induced acute exacerbations are summarized in Figure 1 . As integration of the virology, microbiology and immunology of viral infection becomes more interlinked, additional factors and FIGURE 1 | Current understanding of viral induced exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Upon virus infection in the airway, antiviral state will be activated to clear the invading pathogen from the airway. Immune response and injury factors released from the infected epithelium normally would induce a rapid type 1 immunity that facilitates viral clearance. However, in the inflamed airway, the cytokines and chemokines released instead augmented the inflammation present in the chronically inflamed airway, strengthening the neutrophilic infiltration in COPD airway, and eosinophilic infiltration in the asthmatic airway. The effect is also further compounded by the participation of Th1 and ILC1 cells in the COPD airway; and Th2 and ILC2 cells in the asthmatic airway. Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology | www.frontiersin.org mechanisms have been implicated in acute exacerbations during and after viral infection (Murray et al., 2006) . Murray et al. (2006) has underlined the synergistic effect of viral infection with other sensitizing agents in causing more severe acute exacerbations in the airway. This is especially true when not all exacerbation events occurred during the viral infection but may also occur well after viral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Stolz et al., 2019) in particular the late onset of a bacterial infection (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a . In addition, viruses do not need to directly infect the lower airway to cause an acute exacerbation, as the nasal epithelium remains the primary site of most infections. Moreover, not all viral infections of the airway will lead to acute exacerbations, suggesting a more complex interplay between the virus and upper airway epithelium which synergize with the local airway environment in line with the "united airway" hypothesis (Kurai et al., 2013) . On the other hand, viral infections or their components persist in patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Hence, their presence may further alter the local environment and contribute to current and future exacerbations. Future studies should be performed using metagenomics in addition to PCR analysis to determine the contribution of the microbiome and mycobiome to viral infections. In this review, we highlight recent data regarding viral interactions with the airway epithelium that could also contribute to, or further aggravate, acute exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases have impaired or reduced ability of viral clearance (Hammond et al., 2015; McKendry et al., 2016; Akbarshahi et al., 2018; Gill et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . Their impairment stems from a type 2-skewed inflammatory response which deprives the airway of important type 1 responsive CD8 cells that are responsible for the complete clearance of virusinfected cells (Becker, 2006; McKendry et al., 2016) . This is especially evident in weak type 1 inflammation-inducing viruses such as RV and RSV (Kling et al., 2005; Wood et al., 2011; Ravi et al., 2019) . Additionally, there are also evidence of reduced type I (IFNβ) and III (IFNλ) interferon production due to type 2-skewed inflammation, which contributes to imperfect clearance of the virus resulting in persistence of viral components, or the live virus in the airway epithelium (Contoli et al., 2006; Hwang et al., 2019; Wark, 2019) . Due to the viral components remaining in the airway, antiviral genes such as type I interferons, inflammasome activating factors and cytokines remained activated resulting in prolong airway inflammation (Wood et al., 2011; Essaidi-Laziosi et al., 2018) . These factors enhance granulocyte infiltration thus prolonging the exacerbation symptoms. Such persistent inflammation may also be found within DNA viruses such as AdV, hCMV and HSV, whose infections generally persist longer (Imperiale and Jiang, 2015) , further contributing to chronic activation of inflammation when they infect the airway (Yang et al., 2008; Morimoto et al., 2009; Imperiale and Jiang, 2015; Lan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2016; Kowalski et al., 2017) . With that note, human papilloma virus (HPV), a DNA virus highly associated with head and neck cancers and respiratory papillomatosis, is also linked with the chronic inflammation that precedes the malignancies (de Visser et al., 2005; Gillison et al., 2012; Bonomi et al., 2014; Fernandes et al., 2015) . Therefore, the role of HPV infection in causing chronic inflammation in the airway and their association to exacerbations of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, which is scarcely explored, should be investigated in the future. Furthermore, viral persistence which lead to continuous expression of antiviral genes may also lead to the development of steroid resistance, which is seen with RV, RSV, and PIV infection (Chi et al., 2011; Ford et al., 2013; Papi et al., 2013) . The use of steroid to suppress the inflammation may also cause the virus to linger longer in the airway due to the lack of antiviral clearance (Kim et al., 2008; Hammond et al., 2015; Hewitt et al., 2016; McKendry et al., 2016; Singanayagam et al., 2019b) . The concomitant development of steroid resistance together with recurring or prolong viral infection thus added considerable burden to the management of acute exacerbation, which should be the future focus of research to resolve the dual complications arising from viral infection. On the other end of the spectrum, viruses that induce strong type 1 inflammation and cell death such as IFV (Yan et al., 2016; Guibas et al., 2018) and certain CoV (including the recently emerged COVID-19 virus) (Tao et al., 2013; Yue et al., 2018; Zhu et al., 2020) , may not cause prolonged inflammation due to strong induction of antiviral clearance. These infections, however, cause massive damage and cell death to the epithelial barrier, so much so that areas of the epithelium may be completely absent post infection (Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2019) . Factors such as RANTES and CXCL10, which recruit immune cells to induce apoptosis, are strongly induced from IFV infected epithelium (Ampomah et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2019) . Additionally, necroptotic factors such as RIP3 further compounds the cell deaths in IFV infected epithelium . The massive cell death induced may result in worsening of the acute exacerbation due to the release of their cellular content into the airway, further evoking an inflammatory response in the airway (Guibas et al., 2018) . Moreover, the destruction of the epithelial barrier may cause further contact with other pathogens and allergens in the airway which may then prolong exacerbations or results in new exacerbations. Epithelial destruction may also promote further epithelial remodeling during its regeneration as viral infection induces the expression of remodeling genes such as MMPs and growth factors . Infections that cause massive destruction of the epithelium, such as IFV, usually result in severe acute exacerbations with non-classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Fortunately, annual vaccines are available to prevent IFV infections (Vasileiou et al., 2017; Zheng et al., 2018) ; and it is recommended that patients with chronic airway inflammatory disease receive their annual influenza vaccination as the best means to prevent severe IFV induced exacerbation. Another mechanism that viral infections may use to drive acute exacerbations is the induction of vasodilation or tight junction opening factors which may increase the rate of infiltration. Infection with a multitude of respiratory viruses causes disruption of tight junctions with the resulting increased rate of viral infiltration. This also increases the chances of allergens coming into contact with airway immune cells. For example, IFV infection was found to induce oncostatin M (OSM) which causes tight junction opening (Pothoven et al., 2015; Tian et al., 2018) . Similarly, RV and RSV infections usually cause tight junction opening which may also increase the infiltration rate of eosinophils and thus worsening of the classical symptoms of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Sajjan et al., 2008; Kast et al., 2017; Kim et al., 2018) . In addition, the expression of vasodilating factors and fluid homeostatic factors such as angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4) and bactericidal/permeabilityincreasing fold-containing family member A1 (BPIFA1) are also associated with viral infections and pneumonia development, which may worsen inflammation in the lower airway Akram et al., 2018) . These factors may serve as targets to prevent viral-induced exacerbations during the management of acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Another recent area of interest is the relationship between asthma and COPD exacerbations and their association with the airway microbiome. The development of chronic airway inflammatory diseases is usually linked to specific bacterial species in the microbiome which may thrive in the inflamed airway environment (Diver et al., 2019) . In the event of a viral infection such as RV infection, the effect induced by the virus may destabilize the equilibrium of the microbiome present (Molyneaux et al., 2013; Kloepfer et al., 2014; Kloepfer et al., 2017; Jubinville et al., 2018; van Rijn et al., 2019) . In addition, viral infection may disrupt biofilm colonies in the upper airway (e.g., Streptococcus pneumoniae) microbiome to be release into the lower airway and worsening the inflammation (Marks et al., 2013; Chao et al., 2014) . Moreover, a viral infection may also alter the nutrient profile in the airway through release of previously inaccessible nutrients that will alter bacterial growth (Siegel et al., 2014; Mallia et al., 2018) . Furthermore, the destabilization is further compounded by impaired bacterial immune response, either from direct viral influences, or use of corticosteroids to suppress the exacerbation symptoms (Singanayagam et al., 2018 (Singanayagam et al., , 2019a Wang et al., 2018; Finney et al., 2019) . All these may gradually lead to more far reaching effect when normal flora is replaced with opportunistic pathogens, altering the inflammatory profiles (Teo et al., 2018) . These changes may in turn result in more severe and frequent acute exacerbations due to the interplay between virus and pathogenic bacteria in exacerbating chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Wark et al., 2013; Singanayagam et al., 2018) . To counteract these effects, microbiome-based therapies are in their infancy but have shown efficacy in the treatments of irritable bowel syndrome by restoring the intestinal microbiome (Bakken et al., 2011) . Further research can be done similarly for the airway microbiome to be able to restore the microbiome following disruption by a viral infection. Viral infections can cause the disruption of mucociliary function, an important component of the epithelial barrier. Ciliary proteins FIGURE 2 | Changes in the upper airway epithelium contributing to viral exacerbation in chronic airway inflammatory diseases. The upper airway epithelium is the primary contact/infection site of most respiratory viruses. Therefore, its infection by respiratory viruses may have far reaching consequences in augmenting and synergizing current and future acute exacerbations. The destruction of epithelial barrier, mucociliary function and cell death of the epithelial cells serves to increase contact between environmental triggers with the lower airway and resident immune cells. The opening of tight junction increasing the leakiness further augments the inflammation and exacerbations. In addition, viral infections are usually accompanied with oxidative stress which will further increase the local inflammation in the airway. The dysregulation of inflammation can be further compounded by modulation of miRNAs and epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation and histone modifications that promote dysregulation in inflammation. Finally, the change in the local airway environment and inflammation promotes growth of pathogenic bacteria that may replace the airway microbiome. Furthermore, the inflammatory environment may also disperse upper airway commensals into the lower airway, further causing inflammation and alteration of the lower airway environment, resulting in prolong exacerbation episodes following viral infection. Viral specific trait contributing to exacerbation mechanism (with literature evidence) Oxidative stress ROS production (RV, RSV, IFV, HSV) As RV, RSV, and IFV were the most frequently studied viruses in chronic airway inflammatory diseases, most of the viruses listed are predominantly these viruses. However, the mechanisms stated here may also be applicable to other viruses but may not be listed as they were not implicated in the context of chronic airway inflammatory diseases exacerbation (see text for abbreviations). that aid in the proper function of the motile cilia in the airways are aberrantly expressed in ciliated airway epithelial cells which are the major target for RV infection (Griggs et al., 2017) . Such form of secondary cilia dyskinesia appears to be present with chronic inflammations in the airway, but the exact mechanisms are still unknown (Peng et al., , 2019 Qiu et al., 2018) . Nevertheless, it was found that in viral infection such as IFV, there can be a change in the metabolism of the cells as well as alteration in the ciliary gene expression, mostly in the form of down-regulation of the genes such as dynein axonemal heavy chain 5 (DNAH5) and multiciliate differentiation And DNA synthesis associated cell cycle protein (MCIDAS) (Tan et al., 2018b . The recently emerged Wuhan CoV was also found to reduce ciliary beating in infected airway epithelial cell model (Zhu et al., 2020) . Furthermore, viral infections such as RSV was shown to directly destroy the cilia of the ciliated cells and almost all respiratory viruses infect the ciliated cells (Jumat et al., 2015; Yan et al., 2016; Tan et al., 2018a) . In addition, mucus overproduction may also disrupt the equilibrium of the mucociliary function following viral infection, resulting in symptoms of acute exacerbation (Zhu et al., 2009) . Hence, the disruption of the ciliary movement during viral infection may cause more foreign material and allergen to enter the airway, aggravating the symptoms of acute exacerbation and making it more difficult to manage. The mechanism of the occurrence of secondary cilia dyskinesia can also therefore be explored as a means to limit the effects of viral induced acute exacerbation. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short non-coding RNAs involved in post-transcriptional modulation of biological processes, and implicated in a number of diseases (Tan et al., 2014) . miRNAs are found to be induced by viral infections and may play a role in the modulation of antiviral responses and inflammation (Gutierrez et al., 2016; Deng et al., 2017; Feng et al., 2018) . In the case of chronic airway inflammatory diseases, circulating miRNA changes were found to be linked to exacerbation of the diseases (Wardzynska et al., 2020) . Therefore, it is likely that such miRNA changes originated from the infected epithelium and responding immune cells, which may serve to further dysregulate airway inflammation leading to exacerbations. Both IFV and RSV infections has been shown to increase miR-21 and augmented inflammation in experimental murine asthma models, which is reversed with a combination treatment of anti-miR-21 and corticosteroids (Kim et al., 2017) . IFV infection is also shown to increase miR-125a and b, and miR-132 in COPD epithelium which inhibits A20 and MAVS; and p300 and IRF3, respectively, resulting in increased susceptibility to viral infections (Hsu et al., 2016 (Hsu et al., , 2017 . Conversely, miR-22 was shown to be suppressed in asthmatic epithelium in IFV infection which lead to aberrant epithelial response, contributing to exacerbations (Moheimani et al., 2018) . Other than these direct evidence of miRNA changes in contributing to exacerbations, an increased number of miRNAs and other non-coding RNAs responsible for immune modulation are found to be altered following viral infections (Globinska et al., 2014; Feng et al., 2018; Hasegawa et al., 2018) . Hence non-coding RNAs also presents as targets to modulate viral induced airway changes as a means of managing exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Other than miRNA modulation, other epigenetic modification such as DNA methylation may also play a role in exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases. Recent epigenetic studies have indicated the association of epigenetic modification and chronic airway inflammatory diseases, and that the nasal methylome was shown to be a sensitive marker for airway inflammatory changes (Cardenas et al., 2019; Gomez, 2019) . At the same time, it was also shown that viral infections such as RV and RSV alters DNA methylation and histone modifications in the airway epithelium which may alter inflammatory responses, driving chronic airway inflammatory diseases and exacerbations (McErlean et al., 2014; Pech et al., 2018; Caixia et al., 2019) . In addition, Spalluto et al. (2017) also showed that antiviral factors such as IFNγ epigenetically modifies the viral resistance of epithelial cells. Hence, this may indicate that infections such as RV and RSV that weakly induce antiviral responses may result in an altered inflammatory state contributing to further viral persistence and exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory diseases (Spalluto et al., 2017) . Finally, viral infection can result in enhanced production of reactive oxygen species (ROS), oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction in the airway epithelium (Kim et al., 2018; Mishra et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . The airway epithelium of patients with chronic airway inflammatory diseases are usually under a state of constant oxidative stress which sustains the inflammation in the airway (Barnes, 2017; van der Vliet et al., 2018) . Viral infections of the respiratory epithelium by viruses such as IFV, RV, RSV and HSV may trigger the further production of ROS as an antiviral mechanism Aizawa et al., 2018; Wang et al., 2018) . Moreover, infiltrating cells in response to the infection such as neutrophils will also trigger respiratory burst as a means of increasing the ROS in the infected region. The increased ROS and oxidative stress in the local environment may serve as a trigger to promote inflammation thereby aggravating the inflammation in the airway (Tiwari et al., 2002) . A summary of potential exacerbation mechanisms and the associated viruses is shown in Figure 2 and Table 1 . While the mechanisms underlying the development and acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is extensively studied for ways to manage and control the disease, a viral infection does more than just causing an acute exacerbation in these patients. A viral-induced acute exacerbation not only induced and worsens the symptoms of the disease, but also may alter the management of the disease or confer resistance toward treatments that worked before. Hence, appreciation of the mechanisms of viral-induced acute exacerbations is of clinical significance to devise strategies to correct viral induce changes that may worsen chronic airway inflammatory disease symptoms. Further studies in natural exacerbations and in viral-challenge models using RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) or single cell RNA-seq on a range of time-points may provide important information regarding viral pathogenesis and changes induced within the airway of chronic airway inflammatory disease patients to identify novel targets and pathway for improved management of the disease. Subsequent analysis of functions may use epithelial cell models such as the air-liquid interface, in vitro airway epithelial model that has been adapted to studying viral infection and the changes it induced in the airway (Yan et al., 2016; Boda et al., 2018; Tan et al., 2018a) . Animal-based diseased models have also been developed to identify systemic mechanisms of acute exacerbation (Shin, 2016; Gubernatorova et al., 2019; Tanner and Single, 2019) . Furthermore, the humanized mouse model that possess human immune cells may also serves to unravel the immune profile of a viral infection in healthy and diseased condition (Ito et al., 2019; Li and Di Santo, 2019) . For milder viruses, controlled in vivo human infections can be performed for the best mode of verification of the associations of the virus with the proposed mechanism of viral induced acute exacerbations . With the advent of suitable diseased models, the verification of the mechanisms will then provide the necessary continuation of improving the management of viral induced acute exacerbations. In conclusion, viral-induced acute exacerbation of chronic airway inflammatory disease is a significant health and economic burden that needs to be addressed urgently. In view of the scarcity of antiviral-based preventative measures available for only a few viruses and vaccines that are only available for IFV infections, more alternative measures should be explored to improve the management of the disease. Alternative measures targeting novel viral-induced acute exacerbation mechanisms, especially in the upper airway, can serve as supplementary treatments of the currently available management strategies to augment their efficacy. New models including primary human bronchial or nasal epithelial cell cultures, organoids or precision cut lung slices from patients with airways disease rather than healthy subjects can be utilized to define exacerbation mechanisms. These mechanisms can then be validated in small clinical trials in patients with asthma or COPD. Having multiple means of treatment may also reduce the problems that arise from resistance development toward a specific treatment.

What does all this gradually lead to?

Functional Genetic Variants in DC-SIGNR Are Associated with Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV-1 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2752805/ Boily-Larouche, Geneviève; Iscache, Anne-Laure; Zijenah, Lynn S.; Humphrey, Jean H.; Mouland, Andrew J.; Ward, Brian J.; Roger, Michel 2009-10-07 DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211 License:cc-by Abstract: BACKGROUND: Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the main cause of HIV-1 infection in children worldwide. Given that the C-type lectin receptor, dendritic cell-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin-related (DC-SIGNR, also known as CD209L or liver/lymph node–specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin (L-SIGN)), can interact with pathogens including HIV-1 and is expressed at the maternal-fetal interface, we hypothesized that it could influence MTCT of HIV-1. METHODS AND FINDINGS: To investigate the potential role of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1, we carried out a genetic association study of DC-SIGNR in a well-characterized cohort of 197 HIV-infected mothers and their infants recruited in Harare, Zimbabwe. Infants harbouring two copies of DC-SIGNR H1 and/or H3 haplotypes (H1-H1, H1-H3, H3-H3) had a 3.6-fold increased risk of in utero (IU) (P = 0.013) HIV-1 infection and a 5.7-fold increased risk of intrapartum (IP) (P = 0.025) HIV-1 infection after adjusting for a number of maternal factors. The implicated H1 and H3 haplotypes share two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in promoter region (p-198A) and intron 2 (int2-180A) that were associated with increased risk of both IU (P = 0.045 and P = 0.003, respectively) and IP (P = 0.025, for int2-180A) HIV-1 infection. The promoter variant reduced transcriptional activity in vitro. In homozygous H1 infants bearing both the p-198A and int2-180A mutations, we observed a 4-fold decrease in the level of placental DC-SIGNR transcripts, disproportionately affecting the expression of membrane-bound isoforms compared to infant noncarriers (P = 0.011). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that DC-SIGNR plays a crucial role in MTCT of HIV-1 and that impaired placental DC-SIGNR expression increases risk of transmission. Text: Without specific interventions, the rate of HIV-1 mother-tochild transmission (MTCT) is approximately 15-45% [1] . UNAIDS estimates that last year alone, more than 400,000 children were infected worldwide, mostly through MTCT and 90% of them lived in sub-Saharan Africa. In the most heavilyaffected countries, such as Zimbabwe, HIV-1 is responsible for one third of all deaths among children under the age of five. MTCT of HIV-1 can occur during pregnancy (in utero, IU), delivery (intrapartum, IP) or breastfeeding (postpartum, PP). High maternal viral load, low CD4 cells count, vaginal delivery, low gestational age have all been identified as independent factors associated with MTCT of HIV-1 [1] . Although antiretrovirals can reduce MTCT to 2%, limited access to timely diagnostics and drugs in many developing world countries limits the potential impact of this strategy. A better understanding of the mechanisms acting at the maternal-fetal interface is crucial for the design of alternative interventions to antiretroviral therapy for transmission prevention. Dendritic cell-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin-related (DC-SIGNR, also known as CD209L or liver/lymph node-specific ICAM-grabbing non-integrin (L-SIGN)) can interact with a plethora of pathogens including HIV-1 and is expressed in placental capillary endothelial cells [2] . DC-SIGNR is organized in three distinct domains, an N-terminal cytoplasmic tail, a repeat region containing seven repeat of 23 amino acids and a C-terminal domain implicated in pathogen binding. Alternative splicing of DC-SIGNR gene leads to the production of a highly diversify isoforms repertoire which includes membrane-bound and soluble isoforms [3] . It has been proposed that interaction between DC-SIGNR and HIV-1 might enhance viral transfer to other susceptible cell types [2] but DC-SIGNR can also internalize and mediate proteasome-dependant degradation of viruses [4] that may differently affect the outcome of infection. Given the presence of DC-SIGNR at the maternal-fetal interface and its interaction with HIV-1, we hypothesized that it could influence MTCT of HIV-1. To investigate the potential role of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1, we carried out a genetic association study of DC-SIGNR in a well-characterized cohort of HIV-infected mothers and their infants recruited in Zimbabwe, and identified specific DC-SIGNR variants associated with increased risks of HIV transmission. We further characterized the functional impact of these genetic variants on DC-SIGNR expression and show that they affect both the level and type of DC-SIGNR transcripts produced in the placenta. Samples consisted of stored DNA extracts obtained from 197 mother-child pairs co-enrolled immediately postpartum in the ZVITAMBO Vitamin A supplementation trial (Harare, Zimbabwe) and followed at 6 weeks, and 3-monthly intervals up to 24 months. The ZVITAMBO project was a randomized placebocontrolled clinical trial that enrolled 14,110 mother-child pairs, between November 1997 and January 2000, with the main objective of investigating the impact of immediate postpartum vitamin A supplementation on MTCT of HIV-1. The samples used in the present study were from mother-child pairs randomly assigned to the placebo group of the ZVITAMBO project. Antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-1-positive antenatal women was not available in the Harare public-sector during ZVITAMBO patient recruitment. The samples were consecutively drawn from two groups: 97 HIV-1-positive mother/HIV-1-positive child pairs and 100 HIV-1-positive mother/HIV-negative child pairs. Mother's serological status was determined by ELISA and confirmed by Western Blot. Infants were considered to be infected if they were HIV-1 seropositive at 18 months or older and had two or more positive HIV-1-DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results at earlier ages. 100 infants were considered to be uninfected as they were ELISA negative at 18 months or older and had two DNA PCR negative results from samples collected at a younger age. Of the 97 HIV-1-infected infants, 57 were infected IU, 11 were infected IP, and 17 were infected PP as determined by PCR analyses of blood samples collected at birth, 6 weeks, 3 and 6 months of age and according to the following definitions adapted from Bryson and colleagues [5] . Briefly, infants who were DNA PCR positive at birth were infected IU. Infants with negative PCR results from sample obtained at birth but who become positive by 6 weeks of age were infected IP. Infants with negative PCR results at birth and 6 weeks of age but who subsequently became DNA PCR positive were considered to be infected during the PP period. In the analysis comparing the 3 different modes of MTCT, 12 HIV-1-infected infants were excluded because the PCR results were not available at 6 weeks of age. Full methods for recruitment, baseline characteristics collection, laboratory procedures have been described elsewhere [6] . The nucleotide sequence variation of the entire promoter, coding and part of 39-UTR regions of DC-SIGNR gene in the study population was determined previously [7] . Haplotype reconstruction was performed using Bayesian statistical method implemented in PHASE [8] , version 2.1.1, using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) with a minimum allele frequency (MAF) of 2%. We applied the algorithm five times, using different randomly generated seeds, and consistent results were obtained across runs ( Figure 1 ). Fifteen haplotype-tagged SNPs (htSNPs) were identified by the HaploBlockFinder software [9] with a MAF $5%. These htSNPs were genotyped in the 197 infants by direct PCR sequencing analysis as we have described previously [7] . The DC-SIGNR exon 4 repeat region genotype was determined by PCR amplification followed by migration in 1.5% agarose gels [10] . DNA sequences in the promoter region were analysed with the TESS interface (http//:www.cbil.upenn.edu/tess) for putative transcription factors binding sites using the TRANSFAC database. Luciferase reporter assays using pGL2-Basic vector were performed in order to investigate the functional effect of mutations on DC-SIGNR promoter activity. Genomic DNA from subjects homozygous for the promoter variants and WT was amplified from nucleotide position 2715 to 21 and cloned between the BglII and HindIII multiple cloning sites in the pGL2-Basic vector which harbours a reporter firefly luciferase gene downstream (Invitrogen Canada inc, Burlington, Canada). All recombinants clones were verified by DNA sequencing. The firefly luciferase test reporter vector was co-transfected at a ratio of 10:1 with the constitutive expressor of Renilla luciferase, phRL-CMV (Promega, Madison, WI, USA). We cultured HeLa cells in 6 wells plates (2610 5 cells) and transfected them the following day using lipofectamine (Invitrogen) according to the manufacturer. Cells were lysed and luciferase assays were performed using 20 mg of protein extract according to the manufacturer (Promega) at 44 h post-transfection. Firefly luciferase activity was normalized to Renilla luciferase activity. 0 mg, 0,5 mg or 1 mg CMV-Tat vector was transfected with LTR-Luc as a positive control in these experiments. We carried out lucierase assays in triplicate in three independent experiments. Results are expressed as mean6 standard error of the mean (S.E.M). First-term placental tissues were obtained from abortions following voluntary interruption of pregnancy at CHUM Hôpital Saint-Luc (Montreal, Canada). Tissues from 3 H1 (associated with MTCT of HIV-1) and 3 H15 (wild-type) homozygous haplotypes were used to analyse possible differences in isoform expression. Total placental RNAs were extracted by MasterPure DNA and RNA Extraction Kit (Epicentre Biotechnologies, Madison, WI, USA) according to the manufacturer. Fragments corresponding to the DC-SIGNR coding region were reversed transcribed (RT) and then amplified by nested PCR with the following primers; RT primers RR, first PCR RF and RR and second PCR RcF and RcR according to Liu and colleagues [11] . 1 mg of total RNA was reverse transcribed with Expand RT (Roche Applied Science, Indianapolis, IN, USA) according to the manufacturer and were PCR-amplified with DNA Platinum Taq Polymerase (Invitrogen). Major PCR products from the second PCR reaction were gel extracted with the Qiagen Gel Extraction Kit (Qiagen Canada inc, Mississauga, ON, Canada) and cloned using the TOPO TA Cloning Kit for sequencing (Invitrogen). For each placenta, 15 different clones were randomly selected and amplified with M13 primers and sequenced with ABI PRISM 3100 capillary automated sequencer (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). Sequences were analysed and aligned with GeneBank reference sequence NM_014257 using Lasergene software (DNA Stars, Madison, WI, USA). Quantitative expression of DC-SIGNR isoforms 1,5 mg of placental RNA was reverse transcribed using 2.5 mM of Oligo dT 20 and Expand RT in 20 ml volume according to the manufacturer (Roche Applied Science). 15 ng of total cDNA in a final volume of 20 ml was used to perform quantitative real-time PCR using Universal Express SYBR GreenER qPCR Supermix (Invitrogen) on a Rotor Gene Realtime Rotary Analyser (Corbett Life Science, Sydney, Australia). Samples from 2 subjects in each group were used because RNA quality of others was not suitable for a qRT-PCR analysis. Amplification of all DC-SIGNR isoforms was performed using an exon 5 specific primer pair (Table S1 ). Membrane-bound isoforms were amplified using primers specific for exon 3, corresponding to the common trans-membrane domain of DC-SIGNR. Primers were targeted to the exon-exon junction and RNA extracts were treated with DNase (Fermantas International inc, Burlington, ON, Canada) to avoid amplification of contaminant DNA. Standard curves (50-500 000 copies per reaction) were generated using serial dilution of a full-length DC-SIGNR or commercial GAPDH (Invitrogen) plasmid DNA. All qPCR reactions had efficiencies ranging from 99% to 100%, even in the presence of 20 ng of non-specific nucleic acids, and therefore could be compared. The copy number of unknown samples was estimated by placing the measured PCR cycle number (crossing threshold) on the standard curve. To correct for differences in both RNA quality and quantity between samples, the expression levels of transcripts were normalised to the reference GAPDH gene transcripts. GAPDH primer sequences were kindly provided by A. Mes-Masson at the CHUM. The results are presented as target gene copy number per 10 5 copies of GAPDH. The ratio of membrane-bound isoforms was calculated as E3/E5. Soluble isoforms were calculated by subtracting membrane-bound from total isoforms. We carried out qPCR assays in triplicate in three independent experiments. Results are expressed as mean6S.E.M. Statistical analysis was performed using the GraphPad PRISM 5.0 for Windows (GraphPad Software inc, San Diego, CA, USA). Differences in baseline characteristics and genotypic frequencies of haplotypes or htSNPs were compared between groups using the x 2 analysis or Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) for each genotype and baseline risk factors. Multiple logistic regression was used to define independent predictors identified as significant in the crude analysis. ORs and 95% confidence interval were calculated with the exact method. Comparisons of continuous variables between groups were assessed with the unpaired two-tailed Student's t test when variables were normally distributed and with the Mann-Whitney U test when otherwise. Differences were considered significant at P,0.05. Written informed consent was obtained from all mothers who participated in the study and the ZVITAMBO trial and the investigation reported in this paper were approved by The We carried out an association study of DC-SIGNR polymorphism in 197 infants born to untreated HIV-1-infected mothers recruited in Harare, Zimbabwe. Among them, 97 infants were HIV-1-infected and 100 infants remained uninfected. Of the 97 HIV-1-infected infants, 57 were infected IU, 11 were infected IP, and 17 were infected PP. Timing of infection was not determined for 12 HIV-1-infected infants. Baseline characteristics of mothers and infants are presented in Table 1 . Maternal age and CD4 cell count, child sex, mode of delivery, duration of membrane rupture and gestational age were similar among all groups. However, maternal viral load .29 000 copies/ml was associated with increased risk in both IU and PP with odds ratios (OR) of 3.64 (95% CI = 1.82-7.31, P = 0.0002) and 4.45 (95% CI = 1.50-13.2, P = 0.0045) for HIV-1 transmission, respectively. Fifteen haplotype-tagged SNPs (htSNPs) corresponding to the 15 major DC-SIGNR haplotypes ( Figure 1 ) described among Zimbabweans [7] were genotyped in our study samples (Tables S2 and S3 ). H1 (31%) and H3 (11%) were the most frequent haplotypes observed (Figure 1 ). Being homozygous for the H1 haplotype was associated with increased risk of both IU (OR: 4.42, P = 0.022) and PP (OR: 7.31, P = 0.016) HIV-1 transmission ( Table 2) . Infants harbouring two copy combinations of H1 and/ or H3 haplotypes (H1-H1, H1-H3 or H3-H3) had increased risk of IU (OR: 3.42, P = 0.007) and IP (OR: 5.71, P = 0.025) but not PP (P = 0.098) HIV-1 infection compared to infant noncarriers ( Table 2 ). The latter associations remained significant after adjustment was made for the maternal viral load for both IU (OR: 3.57, 95% CI = 1.30-9.82, P = 0.013) and IP (OR: 5.71, 95% CI = 1.40-23.3, P = 0.025) HIV-1 transmission. The H1 and H3 haplotypes share a cluster of mutations (p-198A, int2-391C, int2-180A, ex4RPT, int5+7C) ( Figure 1 ). Of these, the p-198A and int2-180A variants were significantly associated with MTCT of HIV-1 (Table S2 ). In the unadjusted regression analysis, homozygous infants for the p-198A and int2-180A variants had increased risk of IU (OR: 2.07 P = 0.045, OR: 3.78, P = 0.003, respectively) and IP (OR: 2.47, P = 0.17, O.R: 5.71, P = 0.025, respectively) HIV-1 infection compared to heterozygote infants or noncarriers (Table 3) . When adjustment was made for maternal factors, only the association with the int2-180A variant remained significant for IU (OR: 3.83, 95% CI = 1.42-10.4, P = 0.008) and IP (O.R: 5.71, 95% CI = 1.40-23.3, P = 0.025) HIV-1 transmission. Thus, infants homozygous for DC-SIGNR variant int2-180A contained in H1 and H3 haplotypes were 4-fold to 6-fold more likely to be infected by HIV-1 during pregnancy or at delivery, respectively. Alternative splicing of the DC-SIGNR gene in the placenta produces both membrane-bound and soluble isoform repertoires [3] . The relative proportion of membrane bound and soluble DC-SIGNR could plausibly influence the susceptibility to HIV-1 infection [11] . We therefore hypothesized that the DC-SIGNR mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1 would have an impact on both the level of DC-SIGNR expression and in the isoform repertoire produced. We investigated DC-SIGNR transcript expression in first-term placentas obtained after elective abortion. We cloned DC-SIGNR from placental tissues by RT-PCR from 3 homozygous H1 samples containing both the DC-SIGNR p-198AA and int2-180AA variants associated with HIV-1 transmission and 3 homozygous wild-type (WT) (p-198CC, int2-180GG) samples. Fifteen clones per sample were randomly selected for sequencing. As expected, we found an extensive repertoire of DC-SIGNR transcripts in all samples with 9 to 16 different isoforms per individual. A total of 65 distinct transcripts were identified ( Figure S1 ), of which 3 were full-length transcripts. 64 of the sequenced clones contained a total of 69 amino acid substitutions with 3 new C termini and 2 premature stop codons. However, the diversity was mostly attributable to the entire deletion of exon 2 or exon 3 or to variations in the length of the neck region (exon 4) of DC-SIGNR. The deletion of exon 3 eliminates the trans-membrane domain of the protein and leads to the expression of soluble DC-SIGNR isoforms [3] . Interestingly, the abundance of membrane-bound isoforms in placental tissues of the H1 homozygotes appears to be lower than that observed in samples from WT individuals ( Figure S1 ). The deletion of exon 3 was confirmed by sequencing and we hypothesize that the skipping of exon 3, could be due to the presence of the int2-180A mutation observed in infants with the H1 haplotype. In fact, this intron mutation is located 180 bp downstream from exon 3 and potentially modifies splicing events (Figure 2A ). We confirmed that the variation in transcript proportions seen between the two groups was also reflected at the level of mRNA expression in the placenta. To quantify membrane-bound vs soluble isoforms in placental samples from homozygous H1 and WT infants, we amplified the exon 5 (E5) sequence present in all DC-SIGNR isoforms (total transcripts). We then amplified exon 3 (E3) which is deleted in the soluble forms and then calculated the E3:E5 ratio. We found that placental tissues from homozygous H1 infants express a significantly lower proportion of membrane-bound DC-SIGNR (18%) compared to that in WT individuals (36%) (P = 0.004) ( Figure 2B ) suggesting that exon 3 skipping happens more frequently in presence of the DC-SIGNR int2-180A variant associated with MTCT of HIV-1. The DC-SIGNR int2-180A variant is always transmitted with the promoter mutation p-198A (Figure 1 ). In the unadjusted regression analysis, the p-198A variant was significantly associated with IU but not with IP and PP HIV-1 transmission (Table 3) . Computational transcription factor binding site analysis predicts Table 1 . Baseline characteristics of mother and infants risk factors for intrauterine (IU), intrapartum (IP) and postpartum (PP) mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. Figure 3A ). The luciferase activity of the p-198A variant construct was significantly lower than that of the WT p-198C promoter construct (p-198C/A ratio = 2, P = 0.006) ( Figure 3B ) suggesting that DC-SIGNR p-198A affects promoter activity. The other promoter mutants (p-577C and p-323A) observed in the Zimbabwean population did not affect DC-SIGNR transcription in this assay ( Figure S2 ). To determine the net impact of the DC-SIGNR p-198A mutation on DC-SIGNR expression in the placenta, we quantitated the absolute number of total and membrane-bound DC-SIGNR transcripts in the H1 homozygote and wild-type placental samples as described earlier. The total number of DC-SIGNR transcripts was determined to be 6856213 (DC-SIGNR copies6S.E.M per 10 5 GAPDH copies) in the placental samples from homozygous H1 infants and was 4-fold lower compared to that found in placentas from WT individuals (27816638, P = 0.011) ( Figure 3C ). As suggested earlier, the int2-180A mutation might induce exon 3 skipping leading to a lower production of membrane-bound DC-SIGNR. Although, the decrease in the total number of DC-SIGNR transcripts in H1 homozygous placental samples containing both the p-198AA and int2-180AA variants affected the proportion of membrane-bound and soluble isoforms, the effect of these mutations was more pronounced on the membrane-bound isoforms with an 8-fold decrease (H1 = 117636.2 vs WT = 9906220.6, P = 0.003) compared to a 3-fold decrease in total soluble isoforms (H1 = 5686181.9 vs WT = 19256495.3, P = 0.03) ( Figure 3C ). Therefore, DC-SIGNR p-198A and int2-180A mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1 significantly decreased the level of total placental DC-SIGNR transcripts, disproportionately affecting the membrane-bound isoform production. Table 3 . Associations between infant DC-SIGNR promoter p-198 and intron 2 (int2)-180 variants and intrauterine (IU), intrapartum (IP) and postpartum (PP) mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission. Our genetic results, supported by expression assay in placenta, suggest the involvement of DC-SIGNR in MTCT of HIV-1. Homozygosity for the haplotype H1 was associated with IU transmission in the unadjusted regression analysis. However, the association disappeared after adjustment was made for the maternal factors presumably because of the small number of H1 homozygote infants analysed in each groups. H1 and H3 were the most frequent haplotypes observed in the study population and they share a cluster of mutations (Figure 1 ). Grouping haplotypes H1 and H3 increased the power of the study and permitted the identification of specific DC-SIGNR mutations associated with MTCT of HIV-1. Indeed, two mutations shared by haplotypes H1 and H3 were associated with vertical transmission of HIV-1. The int2-180A was associated with a 4-fold increased risk of IU and 6fold increased risk of IP after adjustment for the maternal factors. Although the p-198A variant was associated with IU transmission, the association disappeared after adjustment was made for the maternal viral load. Nevertheless, we showed that this mutation reduces DC-SIGNR transcriptional activity in vitro and produces lower level of DC-SIGNR transcripts in placental tissues in combination with the int2-180A variant. Since int2-180A is always transmitted with p-198A on the MTCT associated combined haplotypes H1/H3, whereas p-198A is carried on other nonassociated haplotypes (Figure 1) , we can speculate that the p-198A mutation alone may have a minor effect in vivo whereas in combination with the int2-180A variant, they both act to reduce the level of placental DC-SIGNR expression resulting in an increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1. The majority of IU transmission occurs during the last trimester of pregnancy (reviewed in [12] ). Full-term placenta samples were not available for the current study and the expression assays were performed on first-term placental tissues. A previous study looking at DC-SIGNR placental isoforms repertoire in full-term placenta samples demonstrated similar diversity of DC-SIGNR transcripts as in the first-term placental tissues studied herein [3] . However, since levels of DC-SIGNR expression have never been compared between the different terms of pregnancy, it is not known whether DC-SIGNR expression varies during the course of pregnancy. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to assume that the inter-individual differences in both DC-SIGNR isoform repertoire and transcript levels observed between the H1 and WT homozygous infants would be reflected throughout the pregnancy. To date, most studies have focused on the potential role of DC-SIGNR in trans infection of HIV-1 in vitro [2, 10] . However, the multiple mechanisms involved in trans infection and redundancy among C-type lectin functions make it difficult to determine the actual participation of DC-SIGNR in this mode of infection in vivo [13, 14] . The strong correlation we observed between MTCT of HIV-1 and DC-SIGNR genetic variants producing low levels of DC-SIGNR in the placenta suggested that mechanisms other than DC-SIGNR-mediated trans infection might operate during vertical transmission of HIV-1. For example, DC-SIGNR has also been shown to function as a HIV-1 antigen-capturing receptor [15] . Chan and colleagues recently demonstrated that DC-SIGNR transfected CHO cells diminish SARS-CoV titers by enhanced capture and degradation of the virus in a proteasome-dependent manner [4] . Since endothelial cells express MHC-I and II, degraded viral antigens could then be presented to immune cells to elicit an adaptive immune response [16, 17] . The HIV-1 coreceptor CCR5, but not CD4, is co-expressed with DC-SIGNR on placental and blood-brain barrier (BBB) endothelial cells [18, 19] . HIV-1 gp120 binding to CCR5 receptor on endothelial cells compromises BBB integrity and enhances monocytes adhesion and transmigration across the BBB [20, 21] . It is thus possible that reduced expression of DC-SIGNR, particularly the membranebound isoforms, on placental capillary endothelial cells might favour HIV-1 binding to CCR5 receptor, instead of DC-SIGNR receptor, facilitating the migration of maternal HIV-1-infected cells across the placental barrier resulting in IU transmission of HIV-1. The int2-180A variant contained in the H1 and H3 haplotypes was associated with IP transmission suggesting that DC-SIGNR also affect transmission of HIV-1 during delivery. Little is known about the mechanisms underlying transmission of HIV-1 during delivery. Passage through the birth canal could potentially expose infants through a mucosal portal entry (presumably ophthalmic, skin, or gastrointestinal), whereas placental insult during delivery (physical or inflammatory) may enhance transplacental passage of maternal HIV-1-infected cells into foetal circulation [22, 23] . Such process called microtransfusion has been proposed in regards to the results obtain in a Malawian cohort. Kweik and colleagues found a significant association between levels of maternal DNA in umbilical cord blood and IP transmission of HIV-1 suggesting that passage of maternal infected cells through the placenta is likely to occur during delivery [22] . Thus, in a similar fashion as suggested earlier for IU transmission, the relatively lower level of DC-SIGNR in the placenta of homozygous infants harbouring the int2-180A variant could promote HIV-1 binding to CCR5 receptor on endothelial cells affecting the placental barrier integrity and facilitating the passage of maternal infected cells in foetal circulation during delivery. Beside DC-SIGNR, other HIV-1 receptors are known to influence MTCT of HIV-1 (reviewed in [24] ). Genetic variants in CCR5 have been shown to influence vertical transmission of HIV-1. CCR5 promoter variants resulting in higher expression of the receptor were associated with increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1 among sub-Saharan Africans [25, 26] . The 32-pb deletion polymorphism in CCR5 has be shown to protect from vertical transmission of HIV-1 [27] , but this variant is virtually absent among African populations [28] . High copy numbers of CCL3L1, a potent HIV-1 suppressive ligand for CCR5, are associated with higher chemokine production and lower risk of MTCT of HIV-1 among South African infants [29, 30] . Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) is an innate immune receptor synthesised in the liver and secreted in the bloodstream in response to inflammation signal. MBL promotes pathogen elimination by opsonization and phagocytosis, and reduced expression of MBL resulting from polymorphism in coding and non-coding regions has been associated with an increased risk of MTCT of HIV-1 [31, 32] . In this study, we demonstrate for the first time, the potential functional impact of DC-SIGNR mutations on its expression in the placenta and in vertical transmission of HIV-1. We believe that the presence of DC-SIGNR at the placental endothelial cell surface may protect infants from HIV-1 infection by capturing virus and promoting its degradation/presentation. However, in placenta containing low levels of DC-SIGNR, HIV-1 would preferentially binds CCR5 on endothelial cells resulting in a loss of placental barrier integrity and enhanced passage of maternal HIV-1-infected cells in foetal circulation leading to MTCT of HIV-1. This mechanism may also apply to other vertically-transmitted pathogens known to interact with DC-SIGNR such as HIV-2, hepatitis C and dengue viruses and warrant further investigation. Associations between child DC-SIGNR exon 4 repeated region genotypes and mother-to-child HIV-1 transmission.CI, Confidence interval; N, number; NA; not applicable; OR, odds ratio a P-value as determined by the Chi-square test. b Comparison between genotype and all others. Found at: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211.s003 (0.05 MB DOC) Figure S1 DC-SIGNR transcripts repertoire in placenta. Major RT-PCR products from RNA extract from 3 homozygous H1 and 3 homozygous WT placenta samples were purified, cloned and sequenced. Sequenced were analysed according to NCBI reference sequence NM_014257. CT; cytoplasmic tail, TM; trans-membrane domain; WT; wild-type Found at: doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0007211.s004 (0.11 MB DOC) Figure S2 Effect of DC-SIGNR promoter variant on transcriptional activity in luciferase reporter assay in vitro in transfected HeLa cells. Relative luciferase expression from pGL2-Basic, parental vector without promoter. Expression DC-SIGNR promoter constructs, spanning p-577C variant or p-323A variant were calculated relatively to this value. Data are presented in mean values6S.E.M of three independent experiments performed in triplicate. One-way ANOVA test followed by the Dunnett test for multiple comparison was used to compare the relative luciferase expression of the p-557C and p-323A variant reporters against the wild-type (WT) construct (not significant). 0 mg, 0,5 mg or 1 mg CMV-Tat vector was transfected with LTR-Luc as a positive control in these experiments.

How can CCR5's effect in HIV-1 transmission be reduced?