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2018-09-10 | 2018-08-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-11", 0.055], ["2018-08-11", 0.055], ["2018-08-11", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.035], ["2018-08-12", 0.187], ["2018-08-12", 0.21], ["2018-08-12", 0.239], ["2018-08-12", 0.25], ["2018-08-12", 0.276], ["2018-08-12", 0.293], ["2018-08-13", 0.293], ["2018-08-13", 0.28], ["2018-08-13", 0.377], ["2018-08-13", 0.343], ["2018-08-13", 0.343], ["2018-08-13", 0.34], ["2018-08-13", 0.34], ["2018-08-13", 0.336], ["2018-08-13", 0.336], ["2018-08-13", 0.329], ["2018-08-14", 0.329], ["2018-08-14", 0.333], ["2018-08-14", 0.334], ["2018-08-14", 0.334], ["2018-08-14", 0.325], ["2018-08-14", 0.318], ["2018-08-15", 0.316], ["2018-08-15", 0.316], ["2018-08-15", 0.31], ["2018-08-15", 0.31], ["2018-08-15", 0.326], ["2018-08-15", 0.326], ["2018-08-16", 0.32], ["2018-08-16", 0.32], ["2018-08-16", 0.308], ["2018-08-17", 0.314], ["2018-08-17", 0.314], ["2018-08-17", 0.313], ["2018-08-17", 0.316], ["2018-08-17", 0.312], ["2018-08-19", 0.312], ["2018-08-19", 0.304], ["2018-08-19", 0.304], ["2018-08-19", 0.307], ["2018-08-20", 0.304], ["2018-08-21", 0.304], ["2018-08-21", 0.298], ["2018-08-21", 0.294], ["2018-08-22", 0.294], ["2018-08-22", 0.307], ["2018-08-22", 0.302], ["2018-08-22", 0.311], ["2018-08-22", 0.294], ["2018-08-22", 0.291], ["2018-08-22", 0.288], ["2018-08-22", 0.288], ["2018-08-22", 0.284], ["2018-08-22", 0.282], ["2018-08-22", 0.282], ["2018-08-23", 0.28], ["2018-08-23", 0.276], ["2018-08-23", 0.276], ["2018-08-23", 0.275]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1347/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
Google Trends tracks how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume. Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest value for the given region and period of interest. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term during the period of interest. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term. This question will resolve as ‘yes’ if Google Trends shows a 50-point or greater increase of interest in the search term from one day to the next during the period of interest. To access the relevant data, from Google Trends: - Enter the search term of interest (as a ‘Search term’ not a ‘Topic’); - Make sure 'Worldwide' is selected for the geographic area; - Use the drop-down field to enter a ‘Custom time range’ corresponding to the period of interest; - Click the down arrow in the top right of the 'Interest over time' chart to download the data to a CSV file. This question will be resolved at the end of the period of interest. | true | 2018-08-23 | Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-29 | 2018-08-10 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-11", 0.01], ["2018-08-11", 0.01], ["2018-08-11", 0.095], ["2018-08-11", 0.107], ["2018-08-11", 0.174], ["2018-08-11", 0.148], ["2018-08-12", 0.198], ["2018-08-12", 0.233], ["2018-08-12", 0.241], ["2018-08-12", 0.264], ["2018-08-12", 0.281], ["2018-08-12", 0.281], ["2018-08-12", 0.299], ["2018-08-12", 0.283], ["2018-08-12", 0.276], ["2018-08-13", 0.276], ["2018-08-13", 0.279], ["2018-08-13", 0.28], ["2018-08-13", 0.282], ["2018-08-13", 0.284], ["2018-08-13", 0.283], ["2018-08-13", 0.283], ["2018-08-13", 0.287], ["2018-08-14", 0.293], ["2018-08-14", 0.299], ["2018-08-14", 0.299], ["2018-08-14", 0.306], ["2018-08-14", 0.308], ["2018-08-14", 0.323], ["2018-08-14", 0.32], ["2018-08-14", 0.316], ["2018-08-15", 0.316], ["2018-08-15", 0.317], ["2018-08-15", 0.317], ["2018-08-15", 0.312], ["2018-08-15", 0.312], ["2018-08-15", 0.309], ["2018-08-15", 0.315], ["2018-08-16", 0.317], ["2018-08-16", 0.313], ["2018-08-16", 0.316], ["2018-08-16", 0.322], ["2018-08-16", 0.32], ["2018-08-16", 0.316], ["2018-08-17", 0.321], ["2018-08-17", 0.322], ["2018-08-17", 0.322], ["2018-08-17", 0.325], ["2018-08-17", 0.325], ["2018-08-17", 0.326], ["2018-08-18", 0.324], ["2018-08-18", 0.325], ["2018-08-18", 0.326], ["2018-08-18", 0.328], ["2018-08-18", 0.324], ["2018-08-19", 0.324], ["2018-08-19", 0.323], ["2018-08-19", 0.323], ["2018-08-19", 0.321], ["2018-08-20", 0.32], ["2018-08-20", 0.327], ["2018-08-20", 0.327], ["2018-08-20", 0.327], ["2018-08-21", 0.327], ["2018-08-21", 0.325], ["2018-08-21", 0.326], ["2018-08-21", 0.326], ["2018-08-22", 0.326], ["2018-08-22", 0.326], ["2018-08-24", 0.327], ["2018-08-25", 0.327], ["2018-08-25", 0.328], ["2018-08-25", 0.325], ["2018-08-26", 0.324], ["2018-08-26", 0.326], ["2018-08-27", 0.326], ["2018-08-27", 0.327], ["2018-08-28", 0.326], ["2018-08-28", 0.326], ["2018-08-29", 0.32], ["2018-08-30", 0.319], ["2018-08-30", 0.313], ["2018-08-30", 0.312], ["2018-08-30", 0.309], ["2018-08-30", 0.305], ["2018-08-30", 0.305], ["2018-08-30", 0.304], ["2018-08-30", 0.302], ["2018-08-30", 0.299], ["2018-08-30", 0.298], ["2018-08-31", 0.297], ["2018-08-31", 0.297], ["2018-08-31", 0.298], ["2018-08-31", 0.298], ["2018-08-31", 0.297], ["2018-08-31", 0.298], ["2018-08-31", 0.292], ["2018-09-01", 0.293], ["2018-09-01", 0.293], ["2018-09-01", 0.286], ["2018-09-01", 0.286]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1354/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | On August 7, Elon Musk tweeted "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured."
In the days since, there has been no followup information about what funding has been secured. News reports indicate even Tesla's board of directors have not been given any detailed information.
The SEC is reportedly investigating this as a possible case of illegal market manipulation.
Will Musk face serious repercussions from his tweet?
This will resolve positive if, by the end of 2018, Musk is indicted for market manipulation or other related crimes on the basis of that tweet, or if Musk is forced to step down from his role as CEO of Tesla and that tweet is mentioned as part of the basis of that decision, or if he is fined by the SEC or some other regulatory body in an amount exceeding USD $1M. | true | 2018-09-01 | Will Elon Musk be sanctioned for Tesla buyout tweet? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-01-01 | 2018-08-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-22", 0.25], ["2018-12-22", 0.672], ["2018-12-22", 0.698], ["2018-12-22", 0.698], ["2018-12-23", 0.703], ["2018-12-23", 0.671], ["2018-12-23", 0.68], ["2018-12-23", 0.671], ["2018-12-24", 0.67], ["2018-12-25", 0.655], ["2018-12-25", 0.656], ["2018-12-25", 0.657], ["2018-12-25", 0.664], ["2018-12-26", 0.686], ["2018-12-26", 0.686], ["2018-12-27", 0.692], ["2018-12-29", 0.692], ["2018-12-29", 0.693], ["2018-12-29", 0.693], ["2018-12-29", 0.69], ["2018-12-30", 0.695], ["2018-12-30", 0.689], ["2018-12-31", 0.687], ["2018-12-31", 0.705], ["2019-01-01", 0.7], ["2019-01-01", 0.699], ["2019-01-01", 0.7], ["2019-01-02", 0.7], ["2019-01-02", 0.701], ["2019-01-03", 0.7], ["2019-01-03", 0.7], ["2019-01-03", 0.7], ["2019-01-07", 0.69], ["2019-01-07", 0.693], ["2019-01-08", 0.695], ["2019-01-08", 0.7], ["2019-01-09", 0.703], ["2019-01-09", 0.704], ["2019-01-14", 0.704], ["2019-01-14", 0.707], ["2019-01-17", 0.712], ["2019-01-21", 0.713], ["2019-01-21", 0.713], ["2019-01-22", 0.714], ["2019-01-22", 0.709], ["2019-01-24", 0.712], ["2019-01-27", 0.712], ["2019-01-29", 0.714], ["2019-01-30", 0.715], ["2019-01-30", 0.713], ["2019-01-31", 0.713], ["2019-02-01", 0.716], ["2019-02-01", 0.724], ["2019-02-02", 0.724], ["2019-02-03", 0.729], ["2019-02-05", 0.732], ["2019-02-06", 0.732], ["2019-02-06", 0.731], ["2019-02-07", 0.731], ["2019-02-07", 0.737], ["2019-02-07", 0.739], ["2019-02-08", 0.741], ["2019-02-08", 0.739], ["2019-02-09", 0.739], ["2019-02-10", 0.742], ["2019-02-11", 0.742], ["2019-02-11", 0.742], ["2019-02-11", 0.746], ["2019-02-12", 0.746], ["2019-02-12", 0.749], ["2019-02-13", 0.749], ["2019-02-15", 0.748], ["2019-02-17", 0.749], ["2019-02-18", 0.749], ["2019-02-18", 0.749], ["2019-02-18", 0.751], ["2019-02-18", 0.745], ["2019-02-19", 0.745], ["2019-02-19", 0.742], ["2019-02-21", 0.74], ["2019-02-21", 0.737], ["2019-02-21", 0.735], ["2019-02-22", 0.735], ["2019-02-22", 0.735], ["2019-02-22", 0.732], ["2019-02-23", 0.728], ["2019-02-23", 0.728], ["2019-02-24", 0.726], ["2019-02-26", 0.725], ["2019-02-26", 0.726], ["2019-02-26", 0.726], ["2019-02-27", 0.726], ["2019-02-27", 0.728], ["2019-02-28", 0.729], ["2019-02-28", 0.723], ["2019-02-28", 0.723], ["2019-03-01", 0.722], ["2019-03-01", 0.721], ["2019-03-01", 0.714], ["2019-03-01", 0.714], ["2019-03-02", 0.713]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1355/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | It was previously asked whether there would be a crewed SpaceX flight in 2018. Given that the first launch of the Dragon V2 (SpaceX's first human rated vehicle) is slated for a first crewed flight in April 2019 (as of the writing of this question) and that flight schedules are only extremely rarely moved forward, that question will almost certainly resolve negatively.
Yet, it is unclear whether further launch delays will push the date of the first crewed test-flight even further into the future, perhaps even beyond 2019.
It is asked:Will the first crewed SpaceX (test) launch take place prior to January 1st , 2020 at 00:00 UTC?
Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution. | true | 2019-03-02 | Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-08-14 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-01", 0.3], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.155], ["2018-09-01", 0.187], ["2018-09-01", 0.25], ["2018-09-01", 0.248], ["2018-09-01", 0.22], ["2018-09-01", 0.194], ["2018-09-01", 0.189], ["2018-09-01", 0.18], ["2018-09-01", 0.181], ["2018-09-01", 0.187], ["2018-09-01", 0.197], ["2018-09-01", 0.197], ["2018-09-01", 0.205], ["2018-09-01", 0.203], ["2018-09-01", 0.203], ["2018-09-02", 0.209], ["2018-09-02", 0.209], ["2018-09-02", 0.214], ["2018-09-02", 0.22], ["2018-09-02", 0.22], ["2018-09-02", 0.213], ["2018-09-02", 0.21], ["2018-09-02", 0.21], ["2018-09-02", 0.22], ["2018-09-02", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.218], ["2018-09-03", 0.209], ["2018-09-03", 0.213], ["2018-09-03", 0.213], ["2018-09-03", 0.22], ["2018-09-04", 0.212], ["2018-09-04", 0.215], ["2018-09-04", 0.215], ["2018-09-04", 0.215], ["2018-09-04", 0.207], ["2018-09-05", 0.207], ["2018-09-05", 0.208], ["2018-09-05", 0.21], ["2018-09-05", 0.21], ["2018-09-05", 0.211], ["2018-09-05", 0.21], ["2018-09-05", 0.205], ["2018-09-05", 0.205], ["2018-09-05", 0.207], ["2018-09-06", 0.208], ["2018-09-06", 0.208], ["2018-09-07", 0.21], ["2018-09-07", 0.21], ["2018-09-07", 0.212], ["2018-09-07", 0.212], ["2018-09-08", 0.207], ["2018-09-08", 0.205], ["2018-09-08", 0.205], ["2018-09-09", 0.205], ["2018-09-09", 0.205], ["2018-09-10", 0.204], ["2018-09-10", 0.202], ["2018-09-10", 0.202], ["2018-09-10", 0.205], ["2018-09-10", 0.208], ["2018-09-10", 0.209], ["2018-09-11", 0.209], ["2018-09-11", 0.203], ["2018-09-12", 0.203], ["2018-09-14", 0.207], ["2018-09-14", 0.207], ["2018-09-14", 0.201], ["2018-09-14", 0.203], ["2018-09-15", 0.205], ["2018-09-15", 0.205], ["2018-09-16", 0.206], ["2018-09-16", 0.205], ["2018-09-17", 0.205], ["2018-09-17", 0.207], ["2018-09-18", 0.209], ["2018-09-18", 0.206], ["2018-09-18", 0.206], ["2018-09-18", 0.202], ["2018-09-18", 0.2], ["2018-09-19", 0.198], ["2018-09-19", 0.199], ["2018-09-19", 0.197], ["2018-09-19", 0.196], ["2018-09-19", 0.194], ["2018-09-19", 0.196], ["2018-09-19", 0.196], ["2018-09-19", 0.194], ["2018-09-19", 0.194], ["2018-09-19", 0.195]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1362/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In light of continued rumblings that Trump could, in fact, take a face-to-face meeting with Robert Mueller, let's reissue the previous version of this question with a new deadline.
For now, let's see if his legal team can convince him to put it off through the end of the year. And additionally, let's stipulate that the interview (or whatever it ends up being called) need not be under oath, and it is not necessary for Trump to verbally answer questions on any one topic, e.g. obstruction. And as with the last version of this prediction, "the interview need not be broadcast or publicly accessible, but it should be in-person (not for example written responses to questions) and interrogatory (i.e. not a single statement made verbally under oath, nor just answers with no followups to questions that are known to Trump+team in advance.)
Resolution will be negative if Trump testifies before a grand jury before being interviewed by one Mueller's team."
Resolves positive if Trump sits with Mueller for questioning before 12/31/2018. | true | 2018-09-20 | Will Donald Trump submit to questioning as part of Mueller's investigation? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-09-08 | 2018-08-15 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-18", 0.03], ["2018-08-18", 0.218], ["2018-08-18", 0.26], ["2018-08-18", 0.229], ["2018-08-18", 0.228], ["2018-08-18", 0.226], ["2018-08-18", 0.229], ["2018-08-19", 0.207], ["2018-08-19", 0.214], ["2018-08-19", 0.214], ["2018-08-19", 0.223], ["2018-08-19", 0.245], ["2018-08-19", 0.245], ["2018-08-19", 0.246], ["2018-08-19", 0.245], ["2018-08-20", 0.248], ["2018-08-20", 0.247], ["2018-08-20", 0.25], ["2018-08-20", 0.24], ["2018-08-20", 0.24], ["2018-08-20", 0.268], ["2018-08-20", 0.268], ["2018-08-20", 0.253], ["2018-08-20", 0.253], ["2018-08-21", 0.25], ["2018-08-21", 0.245], ["2018-08-21", 0.24], ["2018-08-21", 0.227], ["2018-08-21", 0.227], ["2018-08-21", 0.226], ["2018-08-21", 0.226], ["2018-08-21", 0.22], ["2018-08-21", 0.216], ["2018-08-21", 0.217], ["2018-08-21", 0.215], ["2018-08-22", 0.215], ["2018-08-22", 0.206], ["2018-08-22", 0.205], ["2018-08-22", 0.205], ["2018-08-22", 0.211], ["2018-08-22", 0.214], ["2018-08-22", 0.213], ["2018-08-22", 0.213], ["2018-08-23", 0.213], ["2018-08-23", 0.215], ["2018-08-24", 0.215], ["2018-08-24", 0.211], ["2018-08-24", 0.21], ["2018-08-24", 0.21], ["2018-08-24", 0.226], ["2018-08-24", 0.225], ["2018-08-25", 0.225], ["2018-08-25", 0.224], ["2018-08-25", 0.221], ["2018-08-25", 0.222], ["2018-08-25", 0.218], ["2018-08-26", 0.218], ["2018-08-27", 0.214], ["2018-08-27", 0.217], ["2018-08-27", 0.217], ["2018-08-30", 0.217], ["2018-08-30", 0.215], ["2018-08-30", 0.212], ["2018-08-30", 0.212], ["2018-09-01", 0.209], ["2018-09-01", 0.208], ["2018-09-01", 0.207], ["2018-09-01", 0.207], ["2018-09-01", 0.204], ["2018-09-02", 0.218], ["2018-09-02", 0.218], ["2018-09-02", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.213], ["2018-09-03", 0.208], ["2018-09-03", 0.208], ["2018-09-03", 0.207], ["2018-09-04", 0.206], ["2018-09-04", 0.207], ["2018-09-04", 0.204], ["2018-09-04", 0.205], ["2018-09-05", 0.203], ["2018-09-05", 0.203], ["2018-09-05", 0.203], ["2018-09-05", 0.211], ["2018-09-05", 0.211], ["2018-09-05", 0.208], ["2018-09-06", 0.206], ["2018-09-06", 0.206], ["2018-09-06", 0.199], ["2018-09-06", 0.199], ["2018-09-06", 0.196], ["2018-09-06", 0.18], ["2018-09-06", 0.18], ["2018-09-06", 0.172], ["2018-09-06", 0.168], ["2018-09-07", 0.166], ["2018-09-07", 0.165], ["2018-09-07", 0.164], ["2018-09-07", 0.164], ["2018-09-07", 0.162], ["2018-09-07", 0.161]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1365/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | This question was generated from the IARPA Global Forecasting Challenge.
The United Kingdom (UK) is scheduled to withdraw from the European Union (EU) on 29 March 2019, a date that was set when Prime Minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty on 29 March 2017. This question will resolve as "yes" if the UK requests an extension to the Article 50 deadline to delay the UK's exit from the EU. (BBC Brexit; The Guardian Brexit) | true | 2018-09-07 | Before 8 September 2018, will the UK request an extension to Article 50 for leaving the EU? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-24 | 2018-08-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-17", 0.9], ["2018-08-17", 0.775], ["2018-08-17", 0.847], ["2018-08-17", 0.847], ["2018-08-17", 0.842], ["2018-08-17", 0.842], ["2018-08-17", 0.787], ["2018-08-17", 0.787], ["2018-08-17", 0.749], ["2018-08-17", 0.731], ["2018-08-17", 0.719], ["2018-08-17", 0.697], ["2018-08-17", 0.706], ["2018-08-17", 0.68], ["2018-08-17", 0.692], ["2018-08-17", 0.692], ["2018-08-17", 0.704], ["2018-08-17", 0.714], ["2018-08-17", 0.714], ["2018-08-17", 0.714], ["2018-08-17", 0.722], ["2018-08-17", 0.722], ["2018-08-17", 0.731], ["2018-08-18", 0.732], ["2018-08-18", 0.742], ["2018-08-18", 0.737], ["2018-08-18", 0.736], ["2018-08-18", 0.738], ["2018-08-18", 0.738], ["2018-08-18", 0.738], ["2018-08-18", 0.721], ["2018-08-18", 0.721], ["2018-08-18", 0.721], ["2018-08-18", 0.704], ["2018-08-18", 0.704], ["2018-08-18", 0.705], ["2018-08-18", 0.705], ["2018-08-18", 0.703], ["2018-08-18", 0.703], ["2018-08-18", 0.703], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-18", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.711], ["2018-08-19", 0.716], ["2018-08-19", 0.716], ["2018-08-19", 0.716], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.717], ["2018-08-19", 0.712], ["2018-08-19", 0.717], ["2018-08-19", 0.72], ["2018-08-19", 0.727], ["2018-08-19", 0.727], ["2018-08-19", 0.733], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.718], ["2018-08-19", 0.723], ["2018-08-19", 0.723], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.724], ["2018-08-19", 0.729], ["2018-08-19", 0.729], ["2018-08-19", 0.729], ["2018-08-19", 0.732], ["2018-08-19", 0.737], ["2018-08-19", 0.737], ["2018-08-19", 0.737], ["2018-08-19", 0.737], ["2018-08-19", 0.74], ["2018-08-19", 0.741], ["2018-08-20", 0.743]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1367/ | Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game DotA 2.
On August 5th, OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players, and now, fresh off their victory, they're headed to the big show: The International, with its $20 million dollar purse.
Details on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, however, so this question will have to remain fairly general. | Sports | Will OpenAI's system win more games than it loses at The International?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. If there is a single game, resolution will be based on that game. If there are multiple games it will be based on winning the majority of the games; in case of a tie it resolves ambiguous. | true | 2018-08-20 | Will OpenAI Five win the majority of its DotA 2 matches at The International? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-08-23 | 2018-08-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-21", 0.75], ["2018-08-21", 0.7], ["2018-08-21", 0.7], ["2018-08-21", 0.792], ["2018-08-21", 0.792], ["2018-08-21", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.814], ["2018-08-21", 0.759], ["2018-08-21", 0.741], ["2018-08-21", 0.741], ["2018-08-21", 0.724], ["2018-08-21", 0.714], ["2018-08-21", 0.714], ["2018-08-22", 0.708], ["2018-08-22", 0.716], ["2018-08-22", 0.716], ["2018-08-22", 0.714], ["2018-08-22", 0.723], ["2018-08-22", 0.725], ["2018-08-22", 0.741], ["2018-08-22", 0.741], ["2018-08-22", 0.741], ["2018-08-22", 0.754], ["2018-08-22", 0.748], ["2018-08-22", 0.748], ["2018-08-22", 0.751], ["2018-08-22", 0.749], ["2018-08-22", 0.755], ["2018-08-22", 0.764], ["2018-08-22", 0.764], ["2018-08-22", 0.77], ["2018-08-22", 0.78], ["2018-08-22", 0.78], ["2018-08-22", 0.778], ["2018-08-22", 0.771], ["2018-08-22", 0.774], ["2018-08-22", 0.772], ["2018-08-22", 0.772], ["2018-08-22", 0.773], ["2018-08-22", 0.762], ["2018-08-22", 0.758], ["2018-08-22", 0.755], ["2018-08-22", 0.762]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1383/ | Ever since DeepMind took the Go throne and AI systems began tackling Atari games via self-training and reinforcement learning, more attention has been given to implementing long-term strategic thinking and sub-goal setting. These happen to be the abilities tapped for real-time multiplayer strategy game DotA 2.
On August 5th, OpenAI's DotA 2 bots handily defeated a team of 99.95th percentile human players, and now, fresh off their victory, they're headed to the big show: The International, with its $20 million dollar purse.
Details on OpenAI's appearance at The International are scant, but it appears a match will be played Wednesday Aug. 22. | Sports | Will OpenAI's system win the first game it plays at The International?
The question accepts whatever rules/restrictions the match or matches occur under. Closes retroactively 10 minutes prior to start of the first match. | true | 2018-08-22 | Short-fuse question: Will OpenAI Five win the *first* of its DotA 2 matches at The International? | metaculus | 0 |
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Ask someone who isn’t a member of QAnon and they will tell you that this is the newest iteration in the long list of American conspiracy theories. Think the Da Vinci Code meets your paranoid uncle that lives in his prepper shelter. This movement began on internet discussion boards and spread like wildfire to popular sites like Youtube and Reddit. Ultimately it made its way into the real world at the Trump Rally on July 31, 2018 in Tampa, FL. You can readily see that QAnon supporters were out in full force (you can tell by their fly gear).
Now that you know something about QAnon, let’s move on to the question. This NBC news article posits that Tracy Diaz, Christina Urso, and Coleman Rogers are responsible for the spreading of QAnon.
In November 2017, a small-time YouTube video creator (Tracy Diaz) and two moderators of the 4chan website (Christina Urso and Coleman Rogers), one of the most extreme message boards on the internet, banded together and plucked out of obscurity an anonymous and cryptic post from the many conspiracy theories that populated the website's message board. From: How three conspiracy theorists took 'Q' and sparked Qanon (names added)
Who is Coleman Rogers and why would anyone think that he is part of QAnon?
A review of Rogers’ Facebook page shows he had been active in internet politics and a staunch supporter of Donald Trump during the 2016 campaign, self-identifying as part of the “meme war” — the creation and dissemination of images and internet-style commentary that internet agitators on the chans and Reddit credit with Trump’s win. Rogers often posted memes about “liberal tears” as well as the ludicrous claims that Democrats murdered children and worshipped Satan — details similar to those that would eventually form the Qanon theory. (ibid)
So he has a history of spreading absurd lies on the interwebs. What else?
Within a month (of being kicked off Reddit), Rogers, 31, and his wife, Christina Urso, 29, had launched the Patriots’ Soapbox, a round-the-clock livestreamed YouTube channel for Qanon study and discussion. The channel is, in effect, a broadcast of a Discord chatroom with constant audio commentary from a rotating cast of volunteers and moderators with sporadic appearances by Rogers and Urso. In April, Urso registered Patriots’ Soapbox LLC in Virginia. Rogers and Urso use their channel to call for donations that are accepted through PayPal, cryptocurrencies or mail.”( parenthetical added ibid)
Perhaps they are merely profiting off of this cultural phenomenon. However, some believe that Rogers really is Q.
Some YouTube channels, like one named Unirock, are mostly dedicated to poring over Patriots’ Soapbox livestreams and dissecting purported slip-ups. One archived livestream appears to show Rogers logging into the 8chan account of “Q.”The Patriots’ Soapbox feed quickly cuts out after the login attempt. “Sorry, leg cramp,” Rogers says, before the feed reappears seconds later. (ibid)
Resolution criteria: Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q by September 16th?
Maybe we’ll get lucky and Anonymous will do the dirty work for us and unmask the real Q. Otherwise this could be difficult to resolve. If Rogers has been perpetuating the myth of Q in order to make money then he wouldn't be terribly likely to be forthright about it. Given that difficulty, this question will use consensus forming to create its own answer on whether Rogers is indeed Q (individually, or as a member of a team). Note that the close date will follow the September 16th revelation deadline by two weeks so that we have sufficient time for the community to build a consensus and thus adjudicate.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 90%, then the question resolves positive.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 10%, then the question resolves negative.
If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 10% and ≤ 90%, then the question author (Ben, the Arbiter of Truth) shall decide resolution.
It is important to note that by asking the question concerning the identity of Q, we are missing the point.
The funniest thing about those who try to discredit Q.. They focus on whether Q is real or not, instead of the information being provided. NO ONE cares who Q is. WE care about the TRUTH. Factual evidence. And WE have lots of it. #qanon #WWG1WGA | true | 2018-09-30 | Will Coleman Rogers be revealed as Q (or as part of the team that is Q)? | metaculus | 0 |
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The attempt against McCaskill’s office was a variant of the password-stealing technique used by Russia’s so-called “Fancy Bear” hackers against Clinton’s campaign chairman, John Podesta, in 2016.
The hackers sent forged notification emails to Senate targets claiming the target’s Microsoft Exchange password had expired, and instructing them to change it. If the target clicked on the link, he or she was taken to a convincing replica of the U.S. Senate’s Active Directory Federation Services (ADFS) login page, a single sign-on point for e-mail and other services.
The attempt was one of three apparently detected by Microsoft, and was not successful. But even if it were, the unsophisticated nature of this type of password phish almost certainly qualifies not as a "hack" per se, but as an exercise in social engineering. As such, it isn't much different from the social media bots and astroturfing we already know will be attempting to influence the election process.
More relevant for this question is the very real concern of voting booth security, which the state of Nevada, at least, has devoted $8M to improving. North Carolina has also developed a plan for systemic upgrades, and Florida is attempting to improve their process as well.. These efforts would be in addition to the $250M Senate Democrats are attempting to disburse over Republican objections.
NBC News has reported that, at the federal level, no one is in charge of election security oversight:
"The President has made it clear that his administration will not tolerate foreign interference in our elections from any nation state or other malicious actors," the White House said in a statement afterward.
But current and former officials tell NBC News that 19 months into his presidency, there is no coherent Trump administration strategy to combat foreign election interference — and no single person or agency in charge.
This is despite the fact that official state websites are eminently vulnerable. From FiveThirtyEight:
...the subpar preparation of state websites and election systems remains a concern for cybersecurity experts. According to Hursti, the potential vulnerabilities outlined by Appsecuri were basic. Using slang for relatively inexperienced hackers, he called them “‘script-kids’ vulnerabilities, which anyone can find.” Hursti said that no website “with anything meaningful” should have these kinds of vulnerabilities on its site in 2018.
With all that in mind, the question:
Will the 2018 US Midterm elections be hacked?
Resolves positive if by Jan 15, 2019, the ODNI, other US agency (DOJ, FEC), or Congressional Committee, releases a report assessing affirmatively that hacking (as defined below problem) was part of the 2018 campaign of influence.
For our purposes, "hacked" is understood to mean the unauthorized access of a site or system--distinct from but still compatible with mimicking the appearance of same--perpetrated by a malicious actor with the express intent to alter the outcome of any or all elections in the timeframe. For example, an official entering account information into a webpage designed to look legitimate, resulting in a compromised machine that precipitates an info dump, e.g. is not a hack, but the takeover or penetration of that same website would be. Alternatively, an intentional miscount of physical ballots would not be a hack, but a manipulation of a system to do the same would be. | true | 2018-11-04 | Will the US midterms be hacked? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-03 | 2018-08-20 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-18", 0.2], ["2018-09-18", 0.2], ["2018-09-18", 0.105], ["2018-09-18", 0.068], ["2018-09-18", 0.068], ["2018-09-18", 0.056], ["2018-09-18", 0.073], ["2018-09-18", 0.065], ["2018-09-18", 0.08], ["2018-09-18", 0.075], ["2018-09-18", 0.069], ["2018-09-19", 0.069], ["2018-09-19", 0.055], ["2018-09-19", 0.062], ["2018-09-19", 0.062], ["2018-09-19", 0.059], ["2018-09-19", 0.059], ["2018-09-19", 0.056], ["2018-09-19", 0.054], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-19", 0.05], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-19", 0.052], ["2018-09-20", 0.051], ["2018-09-20", 0.051], ["2018-09-20", 0.051], ["2018-09-20", 0.049], ["2018-09-20", 0.058], ["2018-09-20", 0.058], ["2018-09-20", 0.059], ["2018-09-20", 0.059], ["2018-09-20", 0.056], ["2018-09-21", 0.055], ["2018-09-21", 0.055], ["2018-09-22", 0.054], ["2018-09-22", 0.054], ["2018-09-22", 0.054], ["2018-09-23", 0.059], ["2018-09-23", 0.06], ["2018-09-23", 0.061], ["2018-09-24", 0.061], ["2018-09-25", 0.059], ["2018-09-26", 0.059], ["2018-09-27", 0.058], ["2018-09-27", 0.057], ["2018-09-27", 0.057], ["2018-09-30", 0.057], ["2018-10-01", 0.056], ["2018-10-01", 0.055], ["2018-10-01", 0.054], ["2018-10-01", 0.057], ["2018-10-02", 0.061], ["2018-10-04", 0.061], ["2018-10-06", 0.06], ["2018-10-08", 0.06], ["2018-10-09", 0.06], ["2018-10-10", 0.06], ["2018-10-10", 0.059], ["2018-10-12", 0.057], ["2018-10-12", 0.062], ["2018-10-12", 0.06], ["2018-10-13", 0.061], ["2018-10-14", 0.061], ["2018-10-14", 0.059], ["2018-10-14", 0.058], ["2018-10-15", 0.059], ["2018-10-15", 0.06], ["2018-10-15", 0.063], ["2018-10-15", 0.061], ["2018-10-15", 0.06], ["2018-10-15", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.06], ["2018-10-16", 0.059], ["2018-10-16", 0.058], ["2018-10-16", 0.057], ["2018-10-16", 0.057], ["2018-10-16", 0.059], ["2018-10-16", 0.058], ["2018-10-16", 0.058], ["2018-10-16", 0.057], ["2018-10-17", 0.058], ["2018-10-17", 0.058], ["2018-10-17", 0.057], ["2018-10-17", 0.056], ["2018-10-17", 0.056], ["2018-10-17", 0.054], ["2018-10-17", 0.054], ["2018-10-17", 0.053], ["2018-10-17", 0.052], ["2018-10-17", 0.052], ["2018-10-17", 0.052], ["2018-10-17", 0.052], ["2018-10-17", 0.052], ["2018-10-17", 0.052]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1372/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | Are you ready for some football?! Awesome, now let’s talk about a fun topic... death.
During the past 98 years, Chuck Hughes is the only NFL player to die on the field during a game. In 1971, Chuck was playing for the Detroit Lions when he had a heart attack on the field. He was rushed to the hospital where he was pronounced dead. It turns out that he had an undiagnosed heart condition (advanced arteriosclerosis) which doctors failed to diagnose (he had been admitted previously complaining about chest pains). His widow filed a lawsuit that was resolved in 1974.
For the purposes of this question, we are only considering imminent death that results from an injury sustained on the field. This distinction may seem inconsequential, but if we don’t employ such a clear distinction, then many more deaths could be attributed to playing NFL football. Arguably, concussions received on the field lead to an early demise by contributing to CTE (Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy), Alzheimer’s, and Parkinson’s. Consider the recent NFL concussion settlement which includes thousands of submitted claims.
This is why, for our purposes, we want to consider only imminent death from an injury sustained on the field and not the long term consequences of playing football.
To recapitulate, we are interested in whether or not an NFL player dies during a game during the 2018-2019 season. The regular season began on Thursday, September 6. The season ends upon crowning a victor at Super Bowl LII on February 3, 2019.
Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that an NFL player dies during a game by February 3, 2019 at 11:59 PM (Eastern Standard Time). | true | 2018-10-18 | Will an NFL player die during a game during the 2018-2019 season? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-08-20 | ["https://worldathletics.org/news/report/eliud-kipchoge-world-record-berlin-marathon-2022", "https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/10/kipchoges-sub-two-hour-marathon-how-legitimate-it/599974/"] | binary | [["2018-09-26", 0.5], ["2018-09-26", 0.617], ["2018-09-26", 0.51], ["2018-09-26", 0.549], ["2018-09-26", 0.53], ["2018-09-26", 0.543], ["2018-09-26", 0.567], ["2018-09-26", 0.587], ["2018-09-26", 0.587], ["2018-09-26", 0.59], ["2018-09-26", 0.576], ["2018-09-26", 0.576], ["2018-09-26", 0.568], ["2018-09-27", 0.568], ["2018-09-27", 0.559], ["2018-09-27", 0.536], ["2018-09-29", 0.549], ["2018-09-29", 0.53], ["2018-09-29", 0.539], ["2018-09-30", 0.539], ["2018-09-30", 0.547], ["2018-09-30", 0.545], ["2018-09-30", 0.545], ["2018-09-30", 0.52], ["2018-09-30", 0.508], ["2018-09-30", 0.515], ["2018-09-30", 0.515], ["2018-09-30", 0.521], ["2018-09-30", 0.511], ["2018-09-30", 0.511], ["2018-09-30", 0.514], ["2018-10-01", 0.512], ["2018-10-01", 0.512], ["2018-10-01", 0.511], ["2018-10-01", 0.508], ["2018-10-01", 0.507], ["2018-10-02", 0.508], ["2018-10-03", 0.495], ["2018-10-03", 0.491], ["2018-10-04", 0.492], ["2018-10-04", 0.492], ["2018-10-06", 0.487], ["2018-10-07", 0.485], ["2018-10-07", 0.497], ["2018-10-07", 0.497], ["2018-10-08", 0.493], ["2018-10-08", 0.492], ["2018-10-09", 0.49], ["2018-10-12", 0.495], ["2018-10-15", 0.495], ["2018-10-15", 0.496], ["2018-10-22", 0.506], ["2018-10-22", 0.507], ["2018-10-23", 0.507], ["2018-10-25", 0.509], ["2018-10-25", 0.509], ["2018-10-26", 0.514], ["2018-10-27", 0.514], ["2018-10-29", 0.515], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-02", 0.52], ["2018-11-04", 0.52], ["2018-11-06", 0.522], ["2018-11-06", 0.522], ["2018-11-06", 0.526], ["2018-11-06", 0.523], ["2018-11-06", 0.523], ["2018-11-07", 0.519], ["2018-11-07", 0.524], ["2018-11-07", 0.524], ["2018-11-07", 0.519], ["2018-11-07", 0.517], ["2018-11-07", 0.516], ["2018-11-07", 0.516], ["2018-11-07", 0.515], ["2018-11-07", 0.513], ["2018-11-07", 0.51], ["2018-11-07", 0.509], ["2018-11-07", 0.509], ["2018-11-07", 0.509], ["2018-11-08", 0.512], ["2018-11-08", 0.506], ["2018-11-08", 0.505], ["2018-11-08", 0.502], ["2018-11-08", 0.508], ["2018-11-08", 0.508], ["2018-11-08", 0.508], ["2018-11-08", 0.508], ["2018-11-09", 0.506], ["2018-11-09", 0.506], ["2018-11-09", 0.505], ["2018-11-09", 0.505], ["2018-11-09", 0.503], ["2018-11-10", 0.503], ["2018-11-10", 0.498], ["2018-11-10", 0.497], ["2018-11-10", 0.497], ["2018-11-10", 0.495], ["2018-11-10", 0.495], ["2018-11-10", 0.494], ["2018-11-10", 0.494]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1373/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Sports | The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.
In 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.
One line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research said as much to CNN
We believe that once a sub-two-hour marathon is done, the records will fall at traditional marathons after that… People will run faster and faster, similar to when Roger Bannister broke the four-minute mile."
But maybe this will be harder than the optimists believe. Slate Magazine clarifies the problem:
The size of that gap between Kipchoge’s “theoretically optimized marathon” and the “real world record” tells you one of two things about the future of the marathon, depending on your perspective. Option one is that Kipchoge is so good that he has shown what is truly possible…Option two is the realization that some of Nike’s tactics were so effective that they were worth between two and three minutes to Kipchoge.”
If “option two” is correct, then we’ll probably have to wait a bit longer—maybe a lot longer—before the record falls according to rules defined by the Association of International Marathons and Distance Races (IAAF).
Please note that Metaculus asked a similar question in the past, and it resolved negative. That timeframe was tighter. But still, you've been warned!
Will someone finally succeed in running a sub-2 hour marathon—an attempt recognized as valid and successful by IAAF—before January 1, 2023? | true | 2018-11-11 | Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-10-30 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-24", 0.36], ["2018-08-25", 0.21], ["2018-08-25", 0.198], ["2018-08-26", 0.195], ["2018-08-28", 0.21], ["2018-08-29", 0.212], ["2018-08-31", 0.23], ["2018-09-01", 0.23], ["2018-09-01", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.219], ["2018-09-02", 0.246], ["2018-09-03", 0.248], ["2018-09-04", 0.259], ["2018-09-05", 0.259], ["2018-09-06", 0.251], ["2018-09-06", 0.255], ["2018-09-08", 0.253], ["2018-09-08", 0.253], ["2018-09-09", 0.264], ["2018-09-10", 0.257], ["2018-09-11", 0.257], ["2018-09-12", 0.257], ["2018-09-13", 0.251], ["2018-09-15", 0.251], ["2018-09-22", 0.254], ["2018-09-25", 0.257], ["2018-09-27", 0.263], ["2018-09-28", 0.255], ["2018-09-29", 0.244], ["2018-09-29", 0.246], ["2018-09-30", 0.259], ["2018-10-02", 0.26], ["2018-10-03", 0.257], ["2018-10-07", 0.261], ["2018-10-07", 0.262], ["2018-10-08", 0.266], ["2018-10-08", 0.265], ["2018-10-09", 0.26], ["2018-10-10", 0.26], ["2018-10-11", 0.257], ["2018-10-15", 0.258], ["2018-10-15", 0.27], ["2018-10-16", 0.271], ["2018-10-21", 0.271], ["2018-10-23", 0.276], ["2018-10-25", 0.276], ["2018-10-25", 0.276], ["2018-10-26", 0.273], ["2018-10-27", 0.274], ["2018-10-27", 0.274], ["2018-10-31", 0.274], ["2018-11-01", 0.271], ["2018-11-02", 0.269], ["2018-11-03", 0.269], ["2018-11-04", 0.269], ["2018-11-04", 0.269], ["2018-11-05", 0.269], ["2018-11-07", 0.269], ["2018-11-09", 0.269], ["2018-11-13", 0.27], ["2018-11-13", 0.27], ["2018-11-14", 0.271], ["2018-11-17", 0.272], ["2018-11-17", 0.269], ["2018-11-19", 0.267], ["2018-11-22", 0.266], ["2018-11-23", 0.266], ["2018-11-27", 0.268], ["2018-11-27", 0.269], ["2018-11-29", 0.268], ["2018-11-29", 0.268], ["2018-12-03", 0.268], ["2018-12-04", 0.269], ["2018-12-05", 0.271], ["2018-12-06", 0.272], ["2018-12-07", 0.272], ["2018-12-07", 0.272], ["2018-12-09", 0.272], ["2018-12-09", 0.269], ["2018-12-12", 0.269], ["2018-12-12", 0.269], ["2018-12-13", 0.27], ["2018-12-13", 0.27], ["2018-12-14", 0.27], ["2018-12-15", 0.269], ["2018-12-15", 0.269], ["2018-12-19", 0.269], ["2018-12-19", 0.27], ["2018-12-20", 0.27], ["2018-12-20", 0.268], ["2018-12-22", 0.268], ["2018-12-23", 0.27], ["2018-12-23", 0.27], ["2018-12-24", 0.27], ["2018-12-27", 0.27], ["2018-12-27", 0.268], ["2018-12-29", 0.269], ["2018-12-30", 0.273], ["2018-12-30", 0.274], ["2018-12-31", 0.273], ["2019-01-01", 0.27]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1379/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.
This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2019.
Official recession determinations are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see FAQ.
Accordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-06-08 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-05", 0.56], ["2018-09-05", 0.401], ["2018-09-06", 0.479], ["2018-09-07", 0.491], ["2018-09-07", 0.487], ["2018-09-08", 0.487], ["2018-09-08", 0.491], ["2018-09-09", 0.493], ["2018-09-09", 0.492], ["2018-09-10", 0.495], ["2018-09-12", 0.491], ["2018-09-13", 0.487], ["2018-09-14", 0.486], ["2018-09-15", 0.488], ["2018-09-18", 0.488], ["2018-09-18", 0.485], ["2018-09-19", 0.465], ["2018-09-20", 0.464], ["2018-09-22", 0.47], ["2018-09-25", 0.475], ["2018-09-26", 0.473], ["2018-09-26", 0.473], ["2018-09-27", 0.469], ["2018-09-28", 0.439], ["2018-09-28", 0.437], ["2018-09-29", 0.439], ["2018-09-29", 0.439], ["2018-09-30", 0.433], ["2018-10-01", 0.429], ["2018-10-01", 0.431], ["2018-10-02", 0.431], ["2018-10-03", 0.427], ["2018-10-03", 0.422], ["2018-10-07", 0.421], ["2018-10-07", 0.42], ["2018-10-08", 0.424], ["2018-10-09", 0.424], ["2018-10-15", 0.423], ["2018-10-16", 0.424], ["2018-10-16", 0.425], ["2018-10-20", 0.425], ["2018-10-21", 0.425], ["2018-10-21", 0.427], ["2018-10-22", 0.423], ["2018-10-23", 0.423], ["2018-10-24", 0.422], ["2018-10-25", 0.426], ["2018-10-25", 0.426], ["2018-10-27", 0.427], ["2018-10-27", 0.431], ["2018-10-30", 0.431], ["2018-10-31", 0.431], ["2018-11-03", 0.434], ["2018-11-04", 0.435], ["2018-11-04", 0.435], ["2018-11-07", 0.435], ["2018-11-08", 0.435], ["2018-11-09", 0.432], ["2018-11-13", 0.434], ["2018-11-13", 0.434], ["2018-11-17", 0.433], ["2018-11-18", 0.433], ["2018-11-19", 0.434], ["2018-11-22", 0.433], ["2018-11-22", 0.433], ["2018-11-23", 0.434], ["2018-11-27", 0.434], ["2018-11-27", 0.434], ["2018-11-29", 0.434], ["2018-11-29", 0.434], ["2018-12-02", 0.437], ["2018-12-04", 0.438], ["2018-12-05", 0.442], ["2018-12-07", 0.442], ["2018-12-08", 0.442], ["2018-12-08", 0.442], ["2018-12-09", 0.439], ["2018-12-10", 0.44], ["2018-12-12", 0.44], ["2018-12-13", 0.441], ["2018-12-14", 0.444], ["2018-12-14", 0.449], ["2018-12-15", 0.447], ["2018-12-15", 0.449], ["2018-12-17", 0.451], ["2018-12-18", 0.453], ["2018-12-18", 0.46], ["2018-12-19", 0.463], ["2018-12-19", 0.464], ["2018-12-20", 0.466], ["2018-12-21", 0.466], ["2018-12-22", 0.468], ["2018-12-23", 0.468], ["2018-12-24", 0.469], ["2018-12-24", 0.47], ["2018-12-26", 0.466], ["2018-12-26", 0.467], ["2018-12-29", 0.467], ["2018-12-31", 0.468], ["2018-12-31", 0.468], ["2019-01-01", 0.468]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1380/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.
This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2020.
Official recession determinations are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see FAQ.
Accordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-06-08 | 2018-08-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-05", 0.25], ["2018-09-05", 0.458], ["2018-09-06", 0.576], ["2018-09-06", 0.568], ["2018-09-06", 0.563], ["2018-09-06", 0.603], ["2018-09-07", 0.603], ["2018-09-07", 0.594], ["2018-09-08", 0.594], ["2018-09-08", 0.602], ["2018-09-08", 0.619], ["2018-09-09", 0.605], ["2018-09-09", 0.605], ["2018-09-10", 0.572], ["2018-09-12", 0.572], ["2018-09-13", 0.577], ["2018-09-13", 0.577], ["2018-09-15", 0.581], ["2018-09-17", 0.581], ["2018-09-18", 0.58], ["2018-09-18", 0.565], ["2018-09-19", 0.565], ["2018-09-19", 0.551], ["2018-09-22", 0.553], ["2018-09-22", 0.553], ["2018-09-25", 0.566], ["2018-09-26", 0.564], ["2018-09-27", 0.564], ["2018-09-27", 0.567], ["2018-09-28", 0.569], ["2018-09-28", 0.568], ["2018-09-28", 0.565], ["2018-09-29", 0.565], ["2018-09-29", 0.567], ["2018-09-30", 0.564], ["2018-09-30", 0.567], ["2018-09-30", 0.573], ["2018-10-01", 0.576], ["2018-10-03", 0.576], ["2018-10-03", 0.571], ["2018-10-04", 0.571], ["2018-10-07", 0.569], ["2018-10-07", 0.572], ["2018-10-07", 0.576], ["2018-10-08", 0.574], ["2018-10-08", 0.573], ["2018-10-09", 0.573], ["2018-10-15", 0.573], ["2018-10-15", 0.572], ["2018-10-17", 0.571], ["2018-10-18", 0.572], ["2018-10-21", 0.575], ["2018-10-23", 0.575], ["2018-10-25", 0.574], ["2018-10-25", 0.574], ["2018-10-25", 0.573], ["2018-10-27", 0.574], ["2018-10-27", 0.574], ["2018-10-31", 0.578], ["2018-11-02", 0.582], ["2018-11-07", 0.582], ["2018-11-08", 0.583], ["2018-11-09", 0.583], ["2018-11-14", 0.583], ["2018-11-15", 0.582], ["2018-11-22", 0.582], ["2018-11-27", 0.582], ["2018-11-27", 0.582], ["2018-11-29", 0.581], ["2018-11-29", 0.581], ["2018-12-02", 0.58], ["2018-12-02", 0.582], ["2018-12-04", 0.582], ["2018-12-05", 0.583], ["2018-12-05", 0.584], ["2018-12-07", 0.586], ["2018-12-07", 0.585], ["2018-12-09", 0.585], ["2018-12-09", 0.585], ["2018-12-10", 0.585], ["2018-12-12", 0.585], ["2018-12-13", 0.585], ["2018-12-13", 0.587], ["2018-12-14", 0.586], ["2018-12-15", 0.589], ["2018-12-18", 0.592], ["2018-12-19", 0.592], ["2018-12-19", 0.594], ["2018-12-19", 0.597], ["2018-12-20", 0.598], ["2018-12-22", 0.598], ["2018-12-23", 0.598], ["2018-12-23", 0.597], ["2018-12-24", 0.6], ["2018-12-24", 0.6], ["2018-12-27", 0.6], ["2018-12-27", 0.6], ["2018-12-30", 0.6], ["2018-12-31", 0.602], ["2018-12-31", 0.605], ["2019-01-01", 0.605]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1381/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | By some measures, as of August 22, 2018, the U.S. has enjoyed its longest running bull market.
However, unless the business cycle has permanently ceased to exist, we know that the bull market will eventually end. This naturally leads to the inquiry of when the next recession will begin. This question is intended to be one in a series asking whether a recession will begin by the midpoint of each year, beginning July 1, 2019 through July 1, 2022. A series of binary questions is used so that Metaculus users can make separate predictions for each period rather than a single prediction over a time range.
This question resolves positively if the U.S. enters a recession before July 1, 2021.
Official recession determinations are made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the NBER recession determinations can be delayed by more than a year after the start of a recession; see FAQ.
Accordingly, the question will be resolved positively or negatively if there is clear agreement that a recession did or did not begin during the relevant time period as reported in the economic/financial press (i.e., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Financial Times, Forbes, the Economist, etc.). In the absence of clear agreement, resolution will be based on an official determination by the NBER. In the absence of clear agreement and, if the NBER no longer makes recession determinations, the question will resolve as ambiguous. For purposes of this question, a depression will count as a recession. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-01 | 2018-08-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-08-29", 0.5], ["2018-08-29", 0.485], ["2018-08-29", 0.485], ["2018-08-29", 0.507], ["2018-08-29", 0.504], ["2018-08-31", 0.503], ["2018-08-31", 0.503], ["2018-09-01", 0.521], ["2018-09-02", 0.519], ["2018-09-02", 0.519], ["2018-09-02", 0.505], ["2018-09-02", 0.505], ["2018-09-02", 0.512], ["2018-09-03", 0.513], ["2018-09-06", 0.513], ["2018-09-06", 0.512], ["2018-09-06", 0.493], ["2018-09-07", 0.503], ["2018-09-08", 0.508], ["2018-09-09", 0.508], ["2018-09-09", 0.509], ["2018-09-10", 0.511], ["2018-09-11", 0.535], ["2018-09-11", 0.526], ["2018-09-12", 0.52], ["2018-09-12", 0.526], ["2018-09-13", 0.526], ["2018-09-13", 0.529], ["2018-09-16", 0.528], ["2018-09-17", 0.529], ["2018-09-17", 0.53], ["2018-09-17", 0.532], ["2018-09-17", 0.532], ["2018-09-18", 0.527], ["2018-09-18", 0.527], ["2018-09-18", 0.527], ["2018-09-18", 0.539], ["2018-09-19", 0.538], ["2018-09-19", 0.537], ["2018-09-20", 0.537], ["2018-09-20", 0.539], ["2018-09-21", 0.544], ["2018-09-22", 0.544], ["2018-09-22", 0.548], ["2018-09-23", 0.548], ["2018-09-23", 0.549], ["2018-09-23", 0.549], ["2018-09-23", 0.55], ["2018-09-24", 0.551], ["2018-09-24", 0.555], ["2018-09-24", 0.559], ["2018-09-24", 0.559], ["2018-09-24", 0.558], ["2018-09-25", 0.569], ["2018-09-25", 0.569], ["2018-09-26", 0.572], ["2018-09-26", 0.573], ["2018-09-27", 0.576], ["2018-09-27", 0.577], ["2018-09-27", 0.577], ["2018-09-28", 0.578], ["2018-09-29", 0.579], ["2018-09-29", 0.579], ["2018-09-29", 0.581], ["2018-09-29", 0.581], ["2018-09-29", 0.581], ["2018-09-30", 0.581], ["2018-09-30", 0.583], ["2018-09-30", 0.583]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1387/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | On August 2nd, 2018, the shortlist for the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize was released. The winner will be announced at an award ceremony on October 1st and receive £25,000.
The shortlisted works are all over the scientific spectrum from the the interaction of humanity and machines to the strange behaviours present in the animal kingdom. Of the six nominees, Mark Miodownik is the only one to have been previously nominated. He won the 2014 prize for his book Stuff Matters.
The books are as follows:
Inventing Ourselves: The Secret Life of the Teenage Brain by Sarah-Jayne Blakemore
The Unexpected Truth About Animals by Lucy Cooke
The Beautiful Cure: Harnessing Your Body’s Natural Defences by Daniel M Davis
Hello World: How to be Human in the Age of the Machine by Hannah Fry
Liquid: The Delightful and Dangerous Substances That Flow Through Our Lives by Mark Miodownik
Exactly: How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World by Simon Winchester
Since Metaculus, at present, is not set up for non-binary categorical questions, we will instead somewhat artificially recast this as as binary question:
Will a woman win the 2018 Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize?
Of the six nominees, three are women (Sarah-Jayne Blakemore, Lucy Cooke, and Hannah Fry) and three are men (Daniel M Davis, Mark Miodownik, and Simon Winchester). The resolution will be determined by a press release by the Royal Society or a post on its website declaring the winner.
Users are encouraged to discuss individual books and their win probabilities in the comments. | true | 2018-09-30 | Who will win the Royal Society Insight Investment Science Book Prize? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will Bezos finally put 19 cities (or just 1, depending on your point of view) out of their misery, by announcing where Amazon's next headquarters will be built on or before October 1, 2018? Resolves positive only if officially confirmed by a named representative of Amazon. Will resolve 1 (but not retroactively close) one day prior to the announcement if resolution is positive. | true | 2018-10-01 | Will Amazon announce the location for its HQ2 before October 1, 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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Bernier has declared his intentions to form his own federal political party and field candidates in all 338 of Canada's federal ridings. He enjoys considerable grassroots support. A poll of a thousand Canadians shortly after he announced his intention to form a party found 13% of Canadians intended to cast their vote for its candidates. While this is an impressive start, it's clear that Bernier has an uphill battle ahead of him in order to ascend to the Prime Ministership, or even to the Leader of the Official Opposition, a position currently occupied by his formal rival Scheer.
One big boost to Bernier's candidacy would be an endorsement from Canadian intellectual Jordan Peterson, who is arguably the most well-known and popular intellectual in the Western world today. His work — which is often articulated in bombastic popular lectures — covers topics such as free speech, identity, anti-totalitarianism, personality, performance, and religion, among many others. Peterson's reach is considerable: his lectures have been viewed nearly 70 million times on YouTube, and his new book, 12 Rules for Life, has sold over half a million copies.
Peterson and Bernier have crossed paths before. Bernier cited a meeting with Jordan Peterson has having changed his mind on endorsing Bill C-16, which amends the Canadian Human Rights Act and the Criminal Code to include the terms "gender identity" and "gender expression". He met Peterson again and was photographed with him this past April at an event in Montreal, where he says the two of them spoke on the topic of freedom of speech.
Peterson considers himself to be a "classical liberal", while Maxime resists political labelling but has suggested he himself might reasonably be called a freedom-loving fiscal conservative, or a "reasonable libertarian". Both share a dislike for the policies and perspectives of the current Prime Minster, Justin Trudeau, and his Liberal Party.
While there is perhaps not much political space between Bernier and Peterson, its not clear that Peterson is in the business of offering political endorsements. He seems not to have made any publicly during the 2015 Canadian federal election. He did say, when asked, that he would be open to endorsing candidate Tanya Granic Allen during the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race earlier this year, but no such endorsement ever came. That said, he clearly has an interest in politics, and even considered running in the Ontario Progressive Conservative party's leadership race after the previous leader Patrick Brown resigned amidst allegations of sexual misconduct.
Peterson's ideas have already had a large impact on Canadian politics at the federal and provincial level. It no doubt informed the pushback among federal Conservatives on Bill C-16, and has fueled the concerns of both federal and provincial conservatives regarding the challenges to freedom of speech on the country's university campuses.
Jordan Peterson will be considered to have "endorsed" Maxime Bernier if he declares in a public statement or utterance that he endorses him to be Canada's next Prime Minister. Nothing short of an unequivocal endorsement — such as Peterson mentioning Bernier or his policies favourably in the media — will suffice. | true | 2019-10-21 | Will Jordan Peterson endorse Maxime Bernier as Canada's next Prime Minister ahead of the 2019 Canadian federal election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Texas last elected a Democratic senator when Lloyd Bentsen was reelected in 1988; Ted Cruz was elected in 2012 by 16 points. However, several polls that have shown the Democrat challenger Beto O'Rourke trailing by a few percentage points have caused RealClearPolitics to declare the race a Tossup (other forecasters remain on Lean or Likely Republican). As yet, no polls have shown Ted Cruz behind.
FiveThirtyEight calculated that August polls (in all states) have predicted the final result with an 8 point margin of error on average (and as much as 14 points), leaving a wide range of possible outcomes.
This question asks: Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018? | true | 2018-11-04 | Will Texas elect a Democratic senator in 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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In “Evidence for Superconductivity at Ambient Temperature and Pressure in Nanostructures” authors Dev Kumar Thapa and Anshu Pandey from the Solid State and Structural Chemistry Unit at the Indian Institute of Science make a stunning claim.
Despite being a low temperature phenomenon till date, superconductivity has found numerous applications in diverse fields of medicine, science and engineering. The great scientific interest in the phenomenon as well as its practical utility has motivated extensive efforts to discover and understand new superconductors. We report the observation of superconductivity at ambient temperature and pressure conditions in films and pellets of a nanostructured material that is composed of silver particles embedded into a gold matrix. Specifically, we observe that upon cooling below 236K at ambient pressures, the resistance of sample films drops below 0-4 Ohm, being limited by instrument sensitivity. Further, below the transition temperature, samples become strongly diamagnetic, with volume susceptibilities as low as -0.056. We further describe methods to tune the transition to temperatures higher than room temperature. (https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1807/1807.…)
This article evoked caution and incredulity from the scientific community. The plot thickens. Brian Skinner, an MIT researcher, ran a analysis of the data in Thapa’s and Pandey’s article.
The graph plots a material’s magnetic susceptibility - the degree at which the material becomes magnetized after a magnetic field is applied - at a given temperature. The jump up in magnetic susceptibility is when the material is approaching its critical temperature to become superconductive. Skinner noticed that the pattern of green and blue data plots are pretty much exact copies of each other only shifted down by a constant amount. He consulted other physicists at MIT and elsewhere to see if they had encountered anything like it in their experiments. But all of them were very baffled by it and could think of no obvious explanation for it.
This reminded many scientists of the Schon scandal, including Pratap Raychaudhuri, a professor at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in India . So he takes to Facebook to say as much, and then things get downright scandalous. Raychaudhuri gets an email from T. V. Ramakrishnan, a well known theoretical condensed matter physicist, telling him not to publicly rebuke Thapa and Pandley. Raychaudhuri fires off a response to Ramakrishnan, and then he gets a phone call from Ramakrishnan saying that he never sent that email. It was a fake email sent from an account originating in Switzerland. Oh my beloved science, who says you cannot be just as exciting as a typical tabloid magazine?
Back to the question. As of Sept 5, 2018 the article had been submitted to Nature for review. Question resolves as affirmative if the article gets published in Nature by April 1, 2019. Resolves negatively if it is published in another Journal prior to that date, or unpublished as of that date.
Closes retroactively if it the resolution condition is definitively satisfied at on a date earlier than 4/1/19, two days prior to that satisfaction date. | true | 2018-11-05 | Will a recent paper claiming a breakthrough in high-T superconductivity be published in Nature? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the author of this editorial become publicly known by the time of the midterm elections?
Resolution is positive if a reliable media report indicates with very high probability the author of the editorial, based on leaked information, direct admission, statement by the NYT, firing by the administration (with this given as the reason), etc. (i.e. not simply on circumstantial evidence or probabilistic analysis.) | true | 2018-10-06 | Will the identity of the anonymous administration figure who authored the NYT editorial be discovered by Nov 6 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question asks, six months after Apple reached that milestone, will it still be bigger than Amazon?
This resolves positively if the market cap of Apple as of market close on Friday, February 1, 2019, is higher than that of Amazon. | true | 2018-11-06 | Will Apple's market cap exceed Amazon's on February 1, 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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Since then, around 3600 have pledged to donate a substantial percentage of their incomes to the world’s most effective charities, thousands have significantly changed their career path to improve their impact on the world. Effective Altruism has inspired many to collectively donate around $5-10M each year, and has been partially responsible the focus areas and priorities of the Open Philanthropy Project, which has made around $600M of charitable grants.
According to various metrics, the Effective Altruism movement is growing, but will it continue to do so?
Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2020 be more than 1.5 times the total interest in 2017?
Total interest shall be defined as the sum of the individual monthly interest values over a year. Note that the linked-to Google Trends chart is for the search term 'Effective Altruism'. | true | 2019-09-01 | Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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In fact, Actor Tom Arnold--who is starring in a new Viceland show called "Hunt for the Trump Tapes"--claims to have new and damaging evidence.
MGM and Mark Burnett--who produced "The Apprentice"--have refused to release tapes from their show and have denied that Trump made racist comments.
ABC News has a good summary of the claims and counterclaims here.
For the question to resolve positive, an independently authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" must be released to the general public by November 3, 2020 (election day). | true | 2018-12-31 | Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Catholic News Agency reported:
the pope noted that St. Paul, who was “compelled by the Holy Spirit” to leave Ephesus and journey to Jerusalem, “shows us the pathway for every bishop when it’s time to take his leave and step down... When I read this, I think about myself,” Pope Francis said, “because I am a bishop and I must take my leave and step down... All pastors must take our leave. There comes a moment where the Lord tells us: go somewhere else, go there, go this way, come to me. And one of the steps a pastor must do is to prepare himself to take good leave, not to leave halfway."
Pope Francis had previously alluded to the idea that he might not remain Pope into 2019. As this 2017 article from Crux noted in the context of Catholic Church’s World Youth Day (which will be held in Panama in 2019), Pope Francis told a crowd at St. Mary Major basilica: “I don’t know if it will be me, but the pope will be in Panama!”
Meanwhile, the Pope is facing internal calls for resignation in light of the church's sex abuse scandals.
What's your take? Question resolves positive if Pope Francis publically announces (but does not necessarily complete) his resignation before the year is out. | true | 2018-10-10 | Will Pope Francis resign by the end of the year? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will one BTC be at or above 12000 USD at least at one point between 20th September 2018 and 31st December 2018 on coinmarketcap.com? | true | 2018-11-23 | Will Bitcoin reach a price above 12000 USD / BTC before end of the year 2018? | metaculus | 0 |
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The Riemann hypothesis is arguably the most important open problem in mathematics. Somewhere around a century ago, David Hilbert is said to have remarked that if he were to fall asleep for a thousand years, his first question on waking would be "Has anyone proved the Riemann hypothesis?". It is one of the Clay Mathematics Institute's millennium problems, with a $1M reward available for its solution.
Michael Atiyah is a very eminent mathematician indeed. He was awarded the Fields medal in 1966 and the Abel prize in 2004. He has been President of the Royal Society and Master of Trinity College, Cambridge. He is in these respects exactly the sort of person who should be solving famous open problems.
On the other hand, he is 89 years old, when mathematicians are generally well past their prime. A couple of years ago he published a paper claiming to prove another long-standing conjecture, namely that the 6-dimensional sphere admits no complex structure, and it seems to be generally felt that this paper does not come close to doing what it claims to do. Some mathematicians are quite outspoken in suggesting that Atiyah's recent history makes it unlikely that he really has a proof of the Riemann hypothesis.
So we ask: Does Atiyah have an actual proof of the Riemann hypothesis? Or at least something near enough to one that it remains only to patch up a few small holes?
to keep this question short term, we'll look at the reaction to Atiyah's lecture, with resolution as follows:
Two weeks after the lecture, we will collect all public statement by Fields-prize-winning mathematicians that express a firm opinion that either (a) Atiyah may well have proved the Riemann hypothesis, or (b) Atiyah's proof is fairly clearly flawed. The question will resolve positive if all firm statement are of type (a), negative if they are of type (b), and ambiguous if they are mixed or there are no such statement. | true | 2018-09-24 | Has Michael Atiyah possibly cracked the Riemann hypothesis? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-12-08 | 2018-09-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-28", 0.03], ["2018-10-09", 0.305], ["2018-10-19", 0.296], ["2018-10-25", 0.295], ["2018-11-04", 0.125], ["2018-11-13", 0.118], ["2018-12-11", 0.109], ["2018-12-14", 0.109], ["2018-12-25", 0.114], ["2019-01-03", 0.118], ["2019-01-12", 0.118], ["2019-01-17", 0.108], ["2019-01-25", 0.107], ["2019-02-02", 0.105], ["2019-02-17", 0.105], ["2019-03-11", 0.104], ["2019-03-15", 0.108], ["2019-04-13", 0.107], ["2019-05-14", 0.106], ["2019-06-04", 0.105], ["2019-06-11", 0.104], ["2019-06-25", 0.102], ["2019-07-02", 0.104], ["2019-07-10", 0.102], ["2019-07-16", 0.096], ["2019-07-22", 0.094], ["2019-08-16", 0.094], ["2019-09-05", 0.094], ["2019-09-19", 0.095], ["2019-10-08", 0.095], ["2019-11-12", 0.093], ["2019-11-23", 0.093], ["2019-11-23", 0.092], ["2019-12-05", 0.092], ["2019-12-27", 0.087], ["2019-12-31", 0.088], ["2020-01-13", 0.092], ["2020-02-10", 0.093], ["2020-02-20", 0.098], ["2020-03-06", 0.099], ["2020-03-17", 0.103], ["2020-03-23", 0.103], ["2020-03-31", 0.103], ["2020-04-07", 0.102], ["2020-04-12", 0.103], ["2020-04-19", 0.103], ["2020-04-24", 0.102], ["2020-05-02", 0.105], ["2020-05-08", 0.105], ["2020-06-01", 0.105], ["2020-06-05", 0.096], ["2020-06-16", 0.096], ["2020-06-16", 0.096], ["2020-07-04", 0.096], ["2020-07-08", 0.097], ["2020-07-18", 0.096], ["2020-08-17", 0.096], ["2020-08-29", 0.096], ["2020-08-29", 0.096], ["2020-09-12", 0.096], ["2020-09-13", 0.095], ["2020-10-23", 0.095], ["2020-10-26", 0.095], ["2020-11-17", 0.095], ["2020-11-28", 0.094], ["2020-12-05", 0.097], ["2020-12-25", 0.097], ["2021-01-05", 0.092], ["2021-01-13", 0.091], ["2021-01-22", 0.086], ["2021-01-31", 0.086], ["2021-02-10", 0.076], ["2021-02-17", 0.076], ["2021-02-24", 0.076], ["2021-03-02", 0.074], ["2021-03-12", 0.074], ["2021-03-16", 0.074], ["2021-03-27", 0.074], ["2021-04-03", 0.074], ["2021-04-14", 0.073], ["2021-04-28", 0.073], ["2021-05-03", 0.073], ["2021-05-11", 0.072], ["2021-05-23", 0.072], ["2021-05-29", 0.072], ["2021-06-14", 0.072], ["2021-06-22", 0.071], ["2021-07-02", 0.071], ["2021-07-13", 0.07], ["2021-07-22", 0.07], ["2021-07-27", 0.07], ["2021-08-05", 0.07], ["2021-08-14", 0.07], ["2021-08-25", 0.069], ["2021-09-04", 0.067], ["2021-09-14", 0.066], ["2021-09-22", 0.066], ["2021-09-30", 0.063], ["2021-10-11", 0.062], ["2021-10-21", 0.062], ["2021-10-23", 0.059]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1457/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Angela Merkel has been head of German Government since 2005, when she was elected by the Bundestag into office. Her most recent, fourth cabinet was formed with the votes of CDU/CSU and SPD, a so-called grand coalition.
A brief overview on her:
Merkel entered politics shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, joining a local political party that later united with the CDU. She stood for election in her constituency shortly after reunification of former East Germany with West Germany, becoming a member of Bundestag, a position she’s held since 1991. In the CDU and parliament she was quickly recognised for her competency and appointed Minister for Women and Youth by Helmut Kohl, later promoted to Minister for the Environment and Nuclear Safety.
With the defeat of the CDU federal elections in 1998 Merkel became secretary-general in her party, a prominent and powerful position. She was elected party leader of the CDU in 2000, after her patron (and also former party leader) Kohl and his chosen successor in the CDU tripped over a party funding scandal. She didn’t become contender for chancellor for the following election because of party politics, but ran in 2005, when she won a hair’s breadth victory.
She’s now the third longest running chancellor, and will be the second longest if her cabinet lasts till the end of the current Bundestag.
Given the recent controversies and the rise of populist right-wing party AfD that isn’t a given, though. If there was a federal election, the AfD would be the second strongest party after CDU/CSU, and a grand coalition would both look decidedly different than now and still result in only a minority government.
Thus we ask: Will the next cabinet be headed by Angela Merkel? | true | 2021-10-24 | Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-11-01 | 2018-09-26 | [] | binary | [["2018-09-29", 0.59], ["2018-09-29", 0.395], ["2018-09-29", 0.285], ["2018-09-29", 0.285], ["2018-09-29", 0.278], ["2018-09-29", 0.232], ["2018-09-29", 0.232], ["2018-09-29", 0.284], ["2018-09-29", 0.314], ["2018-09-29", 0.293], ["2018-09-29", 0.271], ["2018-09-29", 0.271], ["2018-09-29", 0.252], ["2018-09-29", 0.252], ["2018-09-30", 0.295], ["2018-09-30", 0.302], ["2018-09-30", 0.288], ["2018-09-30", 0.281], ["2018-09-30", 0.273], ["2018-09-30", 0.269], ["2018-09-30", 0.269], ["2018-09-30", 0.257], ["2018-09-30", 0.261], ["2018-09-30", 0.255], ["2018-09-30", 0.255], ["2018-09-30", 0.257], ["2018-09-30", 0.247], ["2018-09-30", 0.252], ["2018-09-30", 0.249], ["2018-09-30", 0.247], ["2018-09-30", 0.247], ["2018-10-01", 0.239], ["2018-10-01", 0.239], ["2018-10-01", 0.23], ["2018-10-01", 0.235], ["2018-10-01", 0.235], ["2018-10-01", 0.232], ["2018-10-01", 0.233], ["2018-10-01", 0.233], ["2018-10-01", 0.229], ["2018-10-01", 0.229], ["2018-10-01", 0.23], ["2018-10-01", 0.228], ["2018-10-01", 0.228], ["2018-10-01", 0.228], ["2018-10-01", 0.228], ["2018-10-01", 0.228], ["2018-10-01", 0.225], ["2018-10-01", 0.227], ["2018-10-01", 0.222], ["2018-10-02", 0.222], ["2018-10-02", 0.216], ["2018-10-02", 0.217], ["2018-10-02", 0.21], ["2018-10-02", 0.21], ["2018-10-02", 0.207], ["2018-10-02", 0.207], ["2018-10-02", 0.205], ["2018-10-02", 0.208], ["2018-10-02", 0.208], ["2018-10-02", 0.208], ["2018-10-02", 0.21], ["2018-10-02", 0.21], ["2018-10-02", 0.213], ["2018-10-02", 0.214], ["2018-10-03", 0.209], ["2018-10-03", 0.211], ["2018-10-03", 0.211], ["2018-10-03", 0.209], ["2018-10-03", 0.208], ["2018-10-03", 0.208], ["2018-10-04", 0.206], ["2018-10-04", 0.207], ["2018-10-04", 0.206], ["2018-10-04", 0.206], ["2018-10-04", 0.207], ["2018-10-04", 0.207], ["2018-10-04", 0.202], ["2018-10-04", 0.202], ["2018-10-04", 0.199], ["2018-10-04", 0.194], ["2018-10-04", 0.202], ["2018-10-04", 0.202], ["2018-10-05", 0.202]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1463/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October?Adapted from (from Predictit.org)
See this Metaculus question if you would like to know more about QAnon.
Why think that Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) would tweet about QAnon? First and foremost, he is a prolific tweeter (about seven per day). Secondly, there have been many QAnon supporters at his recent rallies and it seems very likely that he saw them. Finally, on 8/24/2018 Donald Trump met with Lionel Lebron, a promoter of the QAnon conspiracy, at the Oval Office.
As much as you might hate to admit it, this story has legs y'all. Recently, Reddit banned QAnon for "inciting violence, harassment, and the dissemination of personal information".
Resolution criteria: question resolves as affirmative if Trump mentions QAnon in a tweet before November 1, 2018. We can resolve this question by noting the President's twitter account, or a credible media report as he often deletes his tweets (which is problematic because these are official presidential records). Interestingly, recently he was ordered to unblock Twitter users | true | 2018-10-05 | Will Donald Trump tweet about QAnon before the end of October? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-01-01 | 2018-09-28 | ["https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63771109", "https://www.ft.com/content/d8231c04-5d7f-468e-8547-77587546734e", "https://twitter.com/vivianwubeijing/status/1596580477041016832", "https://twitter.com/__Inty__/status/1596594425610014720", "https://twitter.com/business/status/1583697018760810497", "https://twitter.com/markets/status/1583695470383153152", "https://www.outlookindia.com/international/fact-check-is-china-having-a-coup-and-is-xi-jinping-under-house-arrest-here-is-what-we-know-news-225623", "https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-house-arrest-china-military-coup-rumors-1746014", "https://twitter.com/indiatvnews/status/1573632942701584384"] | binary | [["2018-10-01", 0.67], ["2018-10-15", 0.738], ["2018-11-01", 0.741], ["2018-11-18", 0.739], ["2018-11-29", 0.745], ["2018-12-17", 0.748], ["2018-12-25", 0.748], ["2019-01-08", 0.745], ["2019-01-17", 0.747], ["2019-01-29", 0.752], ["2019-02-12", 0.762], ["2019-02-27", 0.763], ["2019-04-22", 0.763], ["2019-05-05", 0.764], ["2019-05-30", 0.764], ["2019-06-08", 0.768], ["2019-06-21", 0.769], ["2019-07-04", 0.769], ["2019-07-28", 0.768], ["2019-08-02", 0.769], ["2019-08-29", 0.763], ["2019-09-19", 0.763], ["2019-10-27", 0.764], ["2019-11-22", 0.764], ["2019-12-09", 0.766], ["2019-12-28", 0.766], ["2020-01-07", 0.783], ["2020-01-18", 0.787], ["2020-02-03", 0.787], ["2020-02-10", 0.788], ["2020-03-11", 0.788], ["2020-03-26", 0.789], ["2020-04-08", 0.789], ["2020-04-22", 0.786], ["2020-05-03", 0.789], ["2020-05-16", 0.791], ["2020-05-29", 0.791], ["2020-06-08", 0.791], ["2020-06-23", 0.789], ["2020-06-30", 0.789], ["2020-07-16", 0.79], ["2020-08-05", 0.79], ["2020-08-05", 0.789], ["2020-08-25", 0.79], ["2020-09-06", 0.792], ["2020-09-16", 0.792], ["2020-09-28", 0.793], ["2020-10-11", 0.793], ["2020-10-26", 0.793], ["2020-11-08", 0.794], ["2020-11-26", 0.795], ["2020-12-12", 0.796], ["2020-12-22", 0.797], ["2021-01-04", 0.801], ["2021-01-13", 0.803], ["2021-01-30", 0.807], ["2021-02-16", 0.81], ["2021-02-27", 0.81], ["2021-03-08", 0.811], ["2021-03-26", 0.811], ["2021-04-06", 0.812], ["2021-04-17", 0.813], ["2021-04-28", 0.813], ["2021-05-07", 0.813], ["2021-05-30", 0.813], ["2021-06-08", 0.814], ["2021-06-22", 0.814], ["2021-07-04", 0.815], ["2021-07-20", 0.829], ["2021-08-06", 0.828], ["2021-08-19", 0.829], ["2021-08-28", 0.836], ["2021-09-10", 0.837], ["2021-09-20", 0.837], ["2021-10-07", 0.838], ["2021-10-17", 0.838], ["2021-10-26", 0.838], ["2021-11-11", 0.838], ["2021-11-23", 0.841], ["2021-12-05", 0.842], ["2021-12-20", 0.843], ["2022-01-03", 0.852], ["2022-01-16", 0.862], ["2022-01-23", 0.878], ["2022-05-28", 0.879], ["2022-06-11", 0.882], ["2022-06-24", 0.882], ["2022-07-08", 0.89], ["2022-07-22", 0.89], ["2022-08-03", 0.891], ["2022-08-16", 0.891], ["2022-08-21", 0.891], ["2022-09-05", 0.892], ["2022-09-19", 0.897], ["2022-10-06", 0.897], ["2022-10-22", 0.901], ["2022-11-08", 0.902], ["2022-11-25", 0.903], ["2022-12-12", 0.905], ["2022-12-31", 0.912], ["2022-12-31", 0.914]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1468/ | Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).
The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when Hu Yaobang took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him.
Hu was succeeded by Zhao Ziyang, who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests.
Jiang Zemin took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the eight elders, Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao.
Hu Jintao aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up.
His successor and and current office holder is Xi Jinping.
With the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term.
But there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. Some see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022. | Politics & Governance | This question will resolve as Yes if:
Xi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or
Xi remains paramount leader past 2022, or
Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics | true | 2022-12-31 | Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-11-08 | 2018-10-02 | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2\u2026)"] | binary | [["2018-10-06", 0.3], ["2018-10-06", 0.307], ["2018-10-06", 0.394], ["2018-10-06", 0.378], ["2018-10-06", 0.378], ["2018-10-06", 0.362], ["2018-10-07", 0.341], ["2018-10-07", 0.36], ["2018-10-07", 0.36], ["2018-10-07", 0.352], ["2018-10-07", 0.352], ["2018-10-07", 0.366], ["2018-10-07", 0.366], ["2018-10-07", 0.362], ["2018-10-07", 0.36], ["2018-10-08", 0.348], ["2018-10-08", 0.346], ["2018-10-08", 0.349], ["2018-10-08", 0.346], ["2018-10-08", 0.345], ["2018-10-08", 0.352], ["2018-10-09", 0.352], ["2018-10-09", 0.349], ["2018-10-09", 0.349], ["2018-10-09", 0.353], ["2018-10-09", 0.348], ["2018-10-09", 0.348], ["2018-10-09", 0.347], ["2018-10-10", 0.345], ["2018-10-10", 0.346], ["2018-10-10", 0.346], ["2018-10-10", 0.345], ["2018-10-10", 0.345], ["2018-10-11", 0.357], ["2018-10-12", 0.357], ["2018-10-12", 0.357], ["2018-10-12", 0.356], ["2018-10-12", 0.352], ["2018-10-12", 0.352], ["2018-10-13", 0.352], ["2018-10-14", 0.351], ["2018-10-14", 0.351], ["2018-10-14", 0.351], ["2018-10-15", 0.348], ["2018-10-15", 0.348], ["2018-10-15", 0.35], ["2018-10-15", 0.349], ["2018-10-16", 0.349], ["2018-10-16", 0.349], ["2018-10-16", 0.345], ["2018-10-17", 0.345], ["2018-10-17", 0.353], ["2018-10-17", 0.353], ["2018-10-18", 0.346], ["2018-10-18", 0.346], ["2018-10-19", 0.346], ["2018-10-19", 0.349], ["2018-10-21", 0.346], ["2018-10-21", 0.35], ["2018-10-22", 0.35], ["2018-10-23", 0.349], ["2018-10-23", 0.346], ["2018-10-24", 0.344], ["2018-10-24", 0.344], ["2018-10-24", 0.353], ["2018-10-24", 0.354], ["2018-10-24", 0.354], ["2018-10-25", 0.358], ["2018-10-25", 0.358], ["2018-10-25", 0.355], ["2018-10-25", 0.354], ["2018-10-26", 0.352], ["2018-10-26", 0.353], ["2018-10-26", 0.35], ["2018-10-27", 0.358], ["2018-10-27", 0.359], ["2018-10-27", 0.359], ["2018-10-27", 0.37], ["2018-10-27", 0.359], ["2018-10-28", 0.363], ["2018-10-28", 0.363], ["2018-10-28", 0.355], ["2018-10-28", 0.355], ["2018-10-28", 0.352], ["2018-10-28", 0.352], ["2018-10-28", 0.352], ["2018-10-28", 0.35], ["2018-10-29", 0.349], ["2018-10-29", 0.355], ["2018-10-29", 0.355], ["2018-10-29", 0.351], ["2018-10-29", 0.356], ["2018-10-29", 0.356], ["2018-10-30", 0.357], ["2018-10-30", 0.357], ["2018-10-30", 0.356], ["2018-10-30", 0.355], ["2018-10-30", 0.357], ["2018-10-30", 0.354], ["2018-10-31", 0.356], ["2018-10-31", 0.353]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1479/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | How many people must be killed or injured in order for an event to constitute a ‘mass shooting’? Congress defines the term ‘mass killings’ as, “the term ‘mass killings’ means 3 or more killings in a single incident.” Some balk at this definition, contending that the threshold is too low. You need more than three victims in order for such a designation to make sense. Note that we immediately moved from mass killings to mass shootings, because gun violence is just that common in America.
Perhaps with more data on gun violence in American society we could have a more reasonable definition. This raises another contentious issue in this debate, how do we track the number of shootings? Who is the authority on this data? You might think that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention should have a significant role in monitoring gun violence since many people consider this a public health issue. After all, their motto is “CDC 24/7. Saving lives. Protecting people.” Lest ye forget, this is America:
In 1996, the Republican-majority Congress threatened to strip funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention unless it stopped funding research into firearm injuries and deaths. The National Rifle Association accused the CDC of promoting gun control. As a result, the CDC stopped funding gun-control research — which had a chilling effect far beyond the agency, drying up money for almost all public health studies of the issue nationwide. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2…)
This is known as the Dickey Amendment and it too has become a contentious issue in the national debate about gun control. Fortunately, we can table this issue and proceed with our forecasting.
For the purposes of this question we will consider mass shootings with 20 casualties. By casualty we are referring to an individual that is killed or injured during the shooting (and yes, this includes the shooter). This makes for a more interesting question. Note that the recent Jacksonville shooting would not meet the threshold set forth here.
Mass shootings, as defined earlier, have become a commonplace event in this American life. The FBI provides reliable data about ‘active shooters’. According to the FBI, the US endured 20 mass killings in 2016 and 2017. Mass shooting involving more than 20 casualties are rarer. Thus far, we have only had one such event in 2018. The Stoneman Douglas High School shooting claimed 17 lives and included 17 injuries.
In 2017, we had two such events. The Las Vegas Massacre in Las Vegas on October 1, 2017 in which 58 people were killed and 289 wounded. Also, the Sutherland Springs church shooting on November 5, 2017 in which 27 people were killed (including the shooter and an unborn child) and 20 wounded.
Despite the previously mentioned controversy concerning obtaining reliable data about gun violence once we increase the threshold to include 20 casualties it becomes readily apparent how we will resolve our question. A mass shooting with 20 or more casualties will be all over every media site in the hours following such a horrific event. (Question resolves as affirmative if a credible news agency reports that a mass shooting, with 20 casualties) occurred in the United States of America. Depressingly, we all know that another mass shooting will occur, it is simply a matter of when.
Closes and resolves retroactively to one day prior to the event should one occur. | true | 2018-10-31 | Will there be another mass shooting in the U.S. (at least 20 casualties) by end of the year? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-06 | 2018-10-03 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-04", 0.35], ["2018-10-04", 0.35], ["2018-10-04", 0.467], ["2018-10-04", 0.467], ["2018-10-04", 0.425], ["2018-10-04", 0.448], ["2018-10-04", 0.495], ["2018-10-04", 0.52], ["2018-10-04", 0.486], ["2018-10-04", 0.49], ["2018-10-04", 0.507], ["2018-10-04", 0.529], ["2018-10-04", 0.51], ["2018-10-04", 0.51], ["2018-10-04", 0.53], ["2018-10-04", 0.524], ["2018-10-04", 0.524], ["2018-10-04", 0.529], ["2018-10-04", 0.534], ["2018-10-04", 0.551], ["2018-10-04", 0.567], ["2018-10-04", 0.585], ["2018-10-04", 0.585], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.61], ["2018-10-04", 0.618], ["2018-10-04", 0.634], ["2018-10-04", 0.634], ["2018-10-04", 0.634], ["2018-10-04", 0.64], ["2018-10-04", 0.64], ["2018-10-04", 0.64], ["2018-10-04", 0.64], ["2018-10-04", 0.655], ["2018-10-04", 0.652], ["2018-10-04", 0.663], ["2018-10-04", 0.663], ["2018-10-04", 0.671], ["2018-10-04", 0.671], ["2018-10-05", 0.68], ["2018-10-05", 0.682], ["2018-10-05", 0.68], ["2018-10-05", 0.681], ["2018-10-05", 0.689], ["2018-10-05", 0.686], ["2018-10-05", 0.69], ["2018-10-05", 0.679], ["2018-10-05", 0.679], ["2018-10-05", 0.67], ["2018-10-05", 0.67], ["2018-10-05", 0.67], ["2018-10-05", 0.668], ["2018-10-05", 0.669], ["2018-10-05", 0.673], ["2018-10-05", 0.673], ["2018-10-05", 0.677], ["2018-10-05", 0.679], ["2018-10-05", 0.679], ["2018-10-05", 0.693], ["2018-10-05", 0.689], ["2018-10-05", 0.688], ["2018-10-05", 0.693], ["2018-10-05", 0.693], ["2018-10-05", 0.698], ["2018-10-05", 0.697], ["2018-10-05", 0.697], ["2018-10-05", 0.708], ["2018-10-05", 0.705], ["2018-10-05", 0.705], ["2018-10-05", 0.715], ["2018-10-05", 0.718], ["2018-10-05", 0.724], ["2018-10-05", 0.726], ["2018-10-05", 0.726], ["2018-10-05", 0.732], ["2018-10-05", 0.732], ["2018-10-05", 0.738], ["2018-10-05", 0.738], ["2018-10-05", 0.743], ["2018-10-05", 0.746], ["2018-10-05", 0.746], ["2018-10-05", 0.748], ["2018-10-05", 0.75], ["2018-10-05", 0.75], ["2018-10-05", 0.753], ["2018-10-06", 0.763], ["2018-10-06", 0.766], ["2018-10-06", 0.766], ["2018-10-06", 0.769], ["2018-10-06", 0.769]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1483/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Metaculus previously asked Will a new US Supreme Court Justice be approved in 2018? and How many Senate Democrats will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?.
Predict here on whether the Senate vote will take place by the start of Monday. Resolves positive if so, negative if no vote takes place for whatever reason.
Once the FBI completes its investigation, the White House sends the report to the Senate Judiciary Committee, and senators vote on the motion to end debate, there can be an up or down vote. If Mitch McConnell orders the Senate to work over the weekend, this vote could happen as early as Saturday afternoon.
This question resolves positive if the Senate votes on the confirmation of Kavanaugh prior to Monday the 8th, EDT. | true | 2018-10-06 | Will the U.S. Senate vote on the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh before Monday, October the 8th? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-10-27 | 2018-10-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-12", 0.06], ["2018-10-13", 0.463], ["2018-10-15", 0.45], ["2018-10-17", 0.445], ["2018-10-19", 0.442], ["2018-10-24", 0.446], ["2018-10-25", 0.467], ["2018-11-02", 0.467], ["2018-11-07", 0.481], ["2018-11-08", 0.486], ["2018-11-09", 0.559], ["2018-11-12", 0.573], ["2018-11-13", 0.579], ["2018-11-16", 0.579], ["2018-11-17", 0.585], ["2018-11-20", 0.587], ["2018-11-28", 0.587], ["2018-12-03", 0.589], ["2018-12-09", 0.594], ["2018-12-11", 0.595], ["2018-12-21", 0.593], ["2018-12-23", 0.606], ["2018-12-25", 0.604], ["2018-12-28", 0.604], ["2018-12-29", 0.607], ["2018-12-31", 0.607], ["2019-01-03", 0.612], ["2019-01-05", 0.612], ["2019-01-07", 0.613], ["2019-01-09", 0.612], ["2019-01-12", 0.62], ["2019-01-13", 0.62], ["2019-01-14", 0.617], ["2019-01-16", 0.617], ["2019-01-18", 0.621], ["2019-01-22", 0.615], ["2019-01-24", 0.615], ["2019-01-25", 0.614], ["2019-01-27", 0.614], ["2019-01-28", 0.615], ["2019-01-30", 0.626], ["2019-02-02", 0.626], ["2019-02-05", 0.627], ["2019-02-06", 0.621], ["2019-02-14", 0.623], ["2019-02-16", 0.617], ["2019-02-18", 0.618], ["2019-02-19", 0.617], ["2019-03-04", 0.617], ["2019-03-06", 0.609], ["2019-03-08", 0.609], ["2019-03-16", 0.612], ["2019-03-25", 0.612], ["2019-04-03", 0.611], ["2019-04-18", 0.611], ["2019-04-27", 0.611], ["2019-05-02", 0.61], ["2019-05-31", 0.61], ["2019-06-03", 0.609], ["2019-06-18", 0.608], ["2019-06-24", 0.612], ["2019-06-25", 0.612], ["2019-07-01", 0.616], ["2019-07-02", 0.615], ["2019-07-05", 0.618], ["2019-07-23", 0.617], ["2019-07-25", 0.618], ["2019-08-13", 0.618], ["2019-08-23", 0.618], ["2019-08-25", 0.614], ["2019-08-27", 0.62], ["2019-08-29", 0.617], ["2019-08-31", 0.617], ["2019-09-10", 0.617], ["2019-09-11", 0.616], ["2019-09-19", 0.616], ["2019-09-22", 0.615], ["2019-09-25", 0.612], ["2019-09-26", 0.612], ["2019-10-05", 0.611], ["2019-10-12", 0.608], ["2019-10-14", 0.607], ["2019-10-15", 0.607], ["2019-11-01", 0.607], ["2019-11-01", 0.608], ["2019-11-13", 0.607], ["2019-11-15", 0.61], ["2019-11-17", 0.606], ["2019-11-19", 0.606], ["2019-11-24", 0.605], ["2019-11-25", 0.608], ["2019-11-27", 0.605], ["2019-11-29", 0.6], ["2019-12-02", 0.597], ["2019-12-04", 0.596], ["2019-12-06", 0.596], ["2019-12-13", 0.597], ["2019-12-17", 0.597], ["2019-12-26", 0.599], ["2019-12-30", 0.599], ["2019-12-31", 0.595]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1498/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | So far, Trump appointed two Justices to the SCOTUS - Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh -, and there are no vacancies. However, there is a good chance that Republicans will maintain control of the Senate until 2020, and there might be a vacancy before then. For example, justice Thomas might decide to retire when he can be pretty sure that he will be replaced by a conservative. At 70, he is not particularly old for the court, but he might not want to risk having to wait for another Republican President, in case a Democrat wins in 2020. Another possibility would be the death of one of the justices. Moreover, Trump might be reelected in 2020, and Republicans might control the Senate for at least some time during his second term.
So, it is asked: Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?
Resolution is positive if the following two conditions obtain:
Donald Trump sends the nomination of at least one new Supreme Court Justice to the Senate, the Senate approves the nomination, and the new Justice is sworn in.
Donald Trump has been the President of the United States at all times from the moment this question opens to the moment he sends the nomination of Condition 1.
For the purposes of Condition 2., any situation in which Trump is temporarily not exercising his office (e.g., Cheney was Acting President when Bush had surgery) will not preclude a positive resolution, as long as he continues to be the President in the technical constitutional sense.
Resolution is negative if a positive resolution is no longer constitutionally possible (in practice, at most a year after the end of Trump's presidency, this will have resolved). | true | 2020-01-01 | Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-05 | 2018-10-14 | ["https://data.europa.eu/."] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.6], ["2018-10-21", 0.465], ["2018-10-21", 0.477], ["2018-10-22", 0.477], ["2018-10-22", 0.458], ["2018-10-24", 0.485], ["2018-10-25", 0.489], ["2018-10-25", 0.469], ["2018-10-25", 0.469], ["2018-10-28", 0.49], ["2018-11-02", 0.49], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], ["2018-11-02", 0.491], ["2018-11-05", 0.492], ["2018-11-08", 0.521], ["2018-11-11", 0.521], ["2018-11-17", 0.523], ["2018-11-28", 0.523], ["2018-12-07", 0.518], ["2018-12-13", 0.514], ["2018-12-26", 0.514], ["2018-12-28", 0.525], ["2018-12-29", 0.525], ["2018-12-29", 0.523], ["2019-01-02", 0.526], ["2019-01-02", 0.526], ["2019-01-02", 0.526], ["2019-01-03", 0.523], ["2019-01-03", 0.517], ["2019-01-05", 0.517], ["2019-01-11", 0.513], ["2019-01-19", 0.523], ["2019-01-20", 0.523], ["2019-01-20", 0.528], ["2019-01-24", 0.531], ["2019-01-25", 0.533], ["2019-01-31", 0.534], ["2019-02-03", 0.536], ["2019-02-05", 0.536], ["2019-02-13", 0.531], ["2019-03-16", 0.528], ["2019-03-18", 0.532], ["2019-03-21", 0.528], ["2019-03-23", 0.525], ["2019-03-30", 0.525], ["2019-04-07", 0.528], ["2019-04-07", 0.526], ["2019-04-12", 0.526], ["2019-04-12", 0.523], ["2019-04-12", 0.52], ["2019-04-12", 0.52], ["2019-04-12", 0.521], ["2019-04-12", 0.522], ["2019-04-13", 0.522], ["2019-04-13", 0.524], ["2019-04-13", 0.517], ["2019-04-13", 0.518], ["2019-04-17", 0.515], ["2019-04-17", 0.518], ["2019-04-22", 0.518], ["2019-04-22", 0.518], ["2019-04-22", 0.518], ["2019-04-22", 0.525], ["2019-04-22", 0.527], ["2019-04-22", 0.529], ["2019-04-22", 0.536], ["2019-04-22", 0.534], ["2019-04-23", 0.535], ["2019-04-26", 0.535], ["2019-04-29", 0.539], ["2019-05-01", 0.539], ["2019-05-03", 0.546], ["2019-05-10", 0.547], ["2019-05-10", 0.547], ["2019-05-13", 0.548], ["2019-05-13", 0.547], ["2019-05-17", 0.548], ["2019-05-19", 0.551], ["2019-05-20", 0.551], ["2019-05-20", 0.551], ["2019-05-21", 0.553], ["2019-05-21", 0.553], ["2019-05-21", 0.554], ["2019-05-21", 0.555], ["2019-05-21", 0.555]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1509/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In May 2019, the EU will hold the election for 705 seats in the European Parliament by universal adult suffrage, with about 400 million eligible voters selected from an EU population of 512 million people.
Out of the seven institutions of the EU, the parliament is one of the three legislative bodies, among the European Commission and the Council of the European Union. It is the only directly elected body, as most of the EU is much more strongly oriented towards its federal roots. Since the Lisbon Treaty went into force in 2009, the weight shifted in favor of the European Parliament, but just like in other democratic entities, the media remains strongly dominated by the Executive, the Commission.
The increasing importance of the parliament, the spread and success of EU skeptic parties, and of course Brexit, could make this election slightly more interesting than past ones. Or not. And the changes in the national and regional parliaments are likely to be reflected in the EU -- but how much?
EU Parliament Election 2019 mini-series:
What will the EU-wide voter turnout be for the EU Parliament election, 2019?
Seats
How many seats will the EPP get?
How many seats will the S&D get?
Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue?
How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups achieve? (i.e. ECR, EFDD, ENF, and maybe their successors)
Election Process
Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?
All questions will close one day before the election. Should no elections be held in 2019, all resolve ambiguous.
In case of regional issues, the result that is accepted by the EU counts, even if those results are interim and will receive minor corrections potentially after the Parliament voted on the President of the EU Commission.
All will be resolved by reference to the official results, which will likely be made available somewhere at https://data.europa.eu/.
Will the current coalition consisting of thee EPP, S&D, and ALDE continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019?
All previous parties, and only those parties, must be in the coalition for the question to resolve positive. Should only EPP and S&D remain, it's a negative, should they incorporate another party, it's a negative, etc. etc.
For each party: Should that EU party be replaced with an obvious successor (more than 75% of previous members remain, counted my number of national parties), that one would count. Otherwise, it would count as a different party, and cause negative resolution. | true | 2019-05-21 | Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue after the EU Parliament election, 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-11-27 | 2018-10-14 | ["https://data.europa.eu/."] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.85], ["2018-10-21", 0.885], ["2018-10-21", 0.907], ["2018-10-21", 0.867], ["2018-10-21", 0.802], ["2018-10-21", 0.802], ["2018-10-22", 0.814], ["2018-10-22", 0.812], ["2018-10-22", 0.791], ["2018-10-22", 0.805], ["2018-10-22", 0.804], ["2018-10-24", 0.784], ["2018-10-25", 0.765], ["2018-10-25", 0.765], ["2018-10-25", 0.775], ["2018-10-26", 0.775], ["2018-10-30", 0.775], ["2018-10-31", 0.759], ["2018-11-02", 0.741], ["2018-11-02", 0.741], ["2018-11-04", 0.696], ["2018-11-04", 0.693], ["2018-11-05", 0.705], ["2018-11-05", 0.705], ["2018-11-05", 0.717], ["2018-11-05", 0.728], ["2018-11-06", 0.728], ["2018-11-06", 0.734], ["2018-11-06", 0.73], ["2018-11-08", 0.734], ["2018-11-09", 0.733], ["2018-11-11", 0.733], ["2018-11-12", 0.715], ["2018-11-14", 0.716], ["2018-11-17", 0.709], ["2018-11-23", 0.7], ["2018-11-25", 0.7], ["2018-12-04", 0.696], ["2018-12-19", 0.696], ["2018-12-19", 0.697], ["2018-12-26", 0.699], ["2018-12-27", 0.699], ["2018-12-29", 0.7], ["2018-12-29", 0.699], ["2018-12-31", 0.699], ["2019-01-03", 0.681], ["2019-01-06", 0.678], ["2019-01-11", 0.679], ["2019-01-19", 0.677], ["2019-01-20", 0.679], ["2019-01-20", 0.679], ["2019-01-24", 0.679], ["2019-01-24", 0.676], ["2019-01-31", 0.676], ["2019-02-03", 0.676], ["2019-02-04", 0.676], ["2019-02-05", 0.683], ["2019-03-10", 0.683], ["2019-03-12", 0.683], ["2019-03-14", 0.683], ["2019-03-23", 0.687], ["2019-03-27", 0.686], ["2019-03-30", 0.69], ["2019-03-30", 0.688], ["2019-04-02", 0.689], ["2019-04-03", 0.689], ["2019-04-06", 0.69], ["2019-04-13", 0.69], ["2019-04-13", 0.693], ["2019-04-13", 0.694], ["2019-04-13", 0.694], ["2019-04-13", 0.702], ["2019-04-13", 0.703], ["2019-04-14", 0.71], ["2019-04-14", 0.71], ["2019-04-14", 0.714], ["2019-04-14", 0.714], ["2019-04-14", 0.721], ["2019-04-14", 0.721], ["2019-04-15", 0.724], ["2019-04-16", 0.725], ["2019-04-16", 0.728], ["2019-04-20", 0.728], ["2019-04-24", 0.728], ["2019-04-24", 0.728], ["2019-05-01", 0.729], ["2019-05-01", 0.729], ["2019-05-01", 0.735], ["2019-05-01", 0.736], ["2019-05-01", 0.737], ["2019-05-03", 0.736], ["2019-05-03", 0.738], ["2019-05-04", 0.738], ["2019-05-05", 0.741], ["2019-05-10", 0.741], ["2019-05-20", 0.743], ["2019-05-20", 0.747], ["2019-05-20", 0.752], ["2019-05-21", 0.752], ["2019-05-21", 0.754], ["2019-05-21", 0.754]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1511/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | In May 2019, the EU will hold the election for 705 seats in the European Parliament by universal adult suffrage, with about 400 million eligible voters selected from an EU population of 512 million people.
Out of the seven institutions of the EU, the parliament is one of the three legislative bodies, among the European Commission and the Council of the European Union. It is the only directly elected body, as most of the EU is much more strongly oriented towards its federal roots. Since the Lisbon Treaty went into force in 2009, the weight shifted in favor of the European Parliament, but just like in other democratic entities, the media remains strongly dominated by the Executive, the Commission.
The increasing importance of the parliament, the spread and success of EU skeptic parties, and of course Brexit, could make this election slightly more interesting than past ones. Or not. And the changes in the national and regional parliaments are likely to be reflected in the EU -- but how much?
EU Parliament Election 2019 mini-series:
What will the EU-wide voter turnout be for the EU Parliament election, 2019?
Seats
How many seats will the EPP get?
How many seats will the S&D get?
Will the current coalition (i.e. EPP, S&D, and ALDE) continue?
How many seats will the various eurosceptic groups achieve? (i.e. ECR, EFDD, ENF, and maybe their successors)
Election Process
Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?
All questions will close one day before the election. Should no elections be held in 2019, all resolve ambiguous.
In case of regional issues, the result that is accepted by the EU counts, even if those results are interim and will receive minor corrections potentially after the Parliament voted on the President of the EU Commission.
All will be resolved by reference to the official results, which will likely be made available somewhere at https://data.europa.eu/.
Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt?
The question will resolve once the executive government is active. "Significant" means that in case of success it would have moved at least one seat in the parliament. To resolve negative any single attempt needs to be both unlawful and significant. If no such attempt has been found until the resolution time, this question resolved positive. If the attempt is only recognized after the new coalition has taken up operations, it resolves positive. If the attempt would not have moved a seat, it resolves positive. The direction of the attempt is irrelevant. Any unquantifiable attempts would resolve positive, as would any proper marketing operations, as would if all of "the Russians" and "China" together with "North Korean Elite Hackers" proclaim successful operations without any other outside confirmation. | true | 2019-05-21 | Will the EU Parliament election 2019 be free from any unlawful and significant election manipulation attempt? | metaculus | 1 |
2018-10-27 | 2018-10-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-21", 0.65], ["2018-10-21", 0.575], ["2018-10-21", 0.55], ["2018-10-21", 0.538], ["2018-10-21", 0.5], ["2018-10-21", 0.5], ["2018-10-22", 0.514], ["2018-10-22", 0.514], ["2018-10-22", 0.512], ["2018-10-22", 0.557], ["2018-10-22", 0.529], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2018-10-22", 0.522], ["2018-10-22", 0.55], ["2018-10-22", 0.55], ["2018-10-22", 0.543], ["2018-10-22", 0.543], ["2018-10-22", 0.542], ["2018-10-22", 0.521], ["2018-10-22", 0.506], ["2018-10-22", 0.506], ["2018-10-22", 0.487], ["2018-10-22", 0.506], ["2018-10-23", 0.506], ["2018-10-23", 0.506], ["2018-10-23", 0.513], ["2018-10-23", 0.52], ["2018-10-23", 0.52], ["2018-10-23", 0.526], ["2018-10-23", 0.526], ["2018-10-23", 0.527], ["2018-10-23", 0.532], ["2018-10-23", 0.567], ["2018-10-23", 0.573], ["2018-10-23", 0.573], ["2018-10-23", 0.587], ["2018-10-23", 0.588], ["2018-10-23", 0.608], ["2018-10-23", 0.608], ["2018-10-23", 0.608], ["2018-10-23", 0.611], ["2018-10-23", 0.611], ["2018-10-23", 0.635], ["2018-10-23", 0.635], ["2018-10-23", 0.639], ["2018-10-23", 0.642], ["2018-10-24", 0.641], ["2018-10-24", 0.641], ["2018-10-24", 0.657], ["2018-10-24", 0.66], ["2018-10-24", 0.658], ["2018-10-24", 0.658], ["2018-10-24", 0.662], ["2018-10-25", 0.663], ["2018-10-25", 0.662], ["2018-10-25", 0.662], ["2018-10-25", 0.67], ["2018-10-25", 0.67], ["2018-10-25", 0.656], ["2018-10-25", 0.656], ["2018-10-25", 0.656], ["2018-10-25", 0.665], ["2018-10-25", 0.667], ["2018-10-25", 0.663], ["2018-10-25", 0.669], ["2018-10-25", 0.669], ["2018-10-25", 0.666], ["2018-10-26", 0.674], ["2018-10-26", 0.674], ["2018-10-26", 0.673]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1518/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | On Friday, October 5th the Hubble Telescope was placed in Safe Mode because one of the gyroscopes it uses to direct and stabilize its movement failed. This was not unexpected as this particular gyro had been exhibiting end-of-life behavior for the past year. Two similar gyros have already failed. Back in 2009 six new gyroscopes were installed, and the remaining three are enhanced. An Anomaly Review Board is currently investigating the issue.
From NASA:
If the outcome indicates that the gyro is not usable, Hubble will resume science operations in an already defined “reduced-gyro” mode that uses only one gyro. While reduced-gyro mode offers less sky coverage at any particular time, there is relatively limited impact on the overall scientific capabilities.
As of question creation, the Hubble Telescope is still in Safe Mode. NASA seems confident that it will exit Safe Mode and resume scientific operations soon.
Will the Hubble Telescope resume operations in its three-gyro configuration before the end of 2018?
If the Hubble Telescope resumes three-gyro configuration for any duration of time and thereafter ceases that configuration—to enter reduced-gyro mode or for any other reason—the question still resolves positive. Note that the question resolves negative if the telescope resumes operations but is only in reduced-gyro mode through the end of 2018. | true | 2018-11-01 | Will the Hubble Telescope resume operations in its three-gyro configuration before the end of 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-02-01 | 2018-10-24 | [] | binary | [["2018-10-29", 0.7], ["2018-10-29", 0.45], ["2018-10-30", 0.4], ["2018-10-30", 0.4], ["2018-10-30", 0.436], ["2018-10-31", 0.475], ["2018-10-31", 0.475], ["2018-11-02", 0.458], ["2018-11-02", 0.461], ["2018-11-02", 0.461], ["2018-11-02", 0.464], ["2018-11-02", 0.47], ["2018-11-02", 0.47], ["2018-11-04", 0.428], ["2018-11-05", 0.428], ["2018-11-07", 0.403], ["2018-11-17", 0.402], ["2018-12-03", 0.387], ["2018-12-07", 0.405], ["2018-12-09", 0.405], ["2018-12-28", 0.415], ["2018-12-28", 0.415], ["2019-01-02", 0.411], ["2019-01-03", 0.409], ["2019-01-03", 0.409], ["2019-01-12", 0.396], ["2019-01-13", 0.392], ["2019-01-15", 0.397], ["2019-01-15", 0.392], ["2019-01-15", 0.403], ["2019-01-18", 0.403], ["2019-01-23", 0.384], ["2019-01-23", 0.384], ["2019-01-23", 0.38], ["2019-01-24", 0.384], ["2019-01-24", 0.384], ["2019-01-24", 0.388], ["2019-01-24", 0.388], ["2019-01-28", 0.396], ["2019-01-29", 0.382], ["2019-01-29", 0.382], ["2019-01-29", 0.376], ["2019-01-29", 0.372], ["2019-01-29", 0.358], ["2019-01-29", 0.35], ["2019-02-01", 0.35], ["2019-02-01", 0.338], ["2019-02-01", 0.328]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1531/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was one of the most successful arms control agreements in recent history. Signed in 1987 by President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev, the treaty called for disarmament of all nuclear and conventional missiles and their launchers with ranges between 500–5,500 km (310–3,420 mi), excluding sea-launched missiles.
After 20 years, both signatories started to allege the other was violating the treaty. Russia supposedly by developing the SSC-8 cruise missile, and the US by opening bases in Rumania and Poland. The US' increased use of armed drones is also claimed to be in violation of the treaty.
In late 2018 President Trump declared his intention to withdraw from the treaty, citing both Russia's violation and China's arms build-up.
Thus we wonder: Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?
Keep in mind, expanding the treaty to include more signatories, or having it replaced with a slightly different treaty (à la NAFTA turned USMCA) would still be interpreted as functionally continuing. | true | 2019-07-15 | Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-19 | 2018-10-25 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-29", 0.35], ["2018-12-29", 0.35], ["2018-12-29", 0.442], ["2018-12-29", 0.483], ["2018-12-29", 0.45], ["2018-12-29", 0.469], ["2018-12-30", 0.514], ["2018-12-30", 0.512], ["2018-12-30", 0.511], ["2018-12-31", 0.459], ["2018-12-31", 0.459], ["2019-01-01", 0.432], ["2019-01-01", 0.425], ["2019-01-01", 0.421], ["2019-01-01", 0.43], ["2019-01-01", 0.445], ["2019-01-02", 0.447], ["2019-01-02", 0.447], ["2019-01-02", 0.448], ["2019-01-02", 0.442], ["2019-01-02", 0.45], ["2019-01-03", 0.458], ["2019-01-03", 0.459], ["2019-01-03", 0.465], ["2019-01-03", 0.465], ["2019-01-03", 0.46], ["2019-01-03", 0.445], ["2019-01-04", 0.445], ["2019-01-04", 0.451], ["2019-01-05", 0.454], ["2019-01-06", 0.454], ["2019-01-06", 0.463], ["2019-01-08", 0.455], ["2019-01-11", 0.455], ["2019-01-11", 0.464], ["2019-01-12", 0.457], ["2019-01-15", 0.451], ["2019-01-21", 0.451], ["2019-01-21", 0.45], ["2019-01-21", 0.45], ["2019-01-22", 0.45], ["2019-01-22", 0.455], ["2019-01-22", 0.454], ["2019-01-23", 0.455], ["2019-01-25", 0.456], ["2019-01-25", 0.456], ["2019-01-25", 0.454], ["2019-01-26", 0.451], ["2019-01-27", 0.454], ["2019-01-28", 0.454], ["2019-01-28", 0.454], ["2019-01-29", 0.452], ["2019-01-30", 0.441], ["2019-01-30", 0.441], ["2019-01-31", 0.44], ["2019-01-31", 0.438], ["2019-01-31", 0.436], ["2019-02-03", 0.436], ["2019-02-03", 0.434], ["2019-02-04", 0.433], ["2019-02-06", 0.43], ["2019-02-06", 0.43], ["2019-02-06", 0.428], ["2019-02-06", 0.424], ["2019-02-06", 0.424], ["2019-02-07", 0.423], ["2019-02-07", 0.423], ["2019-02-07", 0.423], ["2019-02-08", 0.416], ["2019-02-10", 0.415], ["2019-02-11", 0.414], ["2019-02-11", 0.424], ["2019-02-13", 0.424], ["2019-02-14", 0.422], ["2019-02-15", 0.421], ["2019-02-15", 0.42], ["2019-02-17", 0.419], ["2019-02-17", 0.418], ["2019-02-17", 0.418], ["2019-02-17", 0.411], ["2019-02-18", 0.409], ["2019-02-20", 0.409], ["2019-02-22", 0.406], ["2019-02-22", 0.403], ["2019-02-22", 0.401], ["2019-02-23", 0.398], ["2019-02-23", 0.398], ["2019-02-23", 0.398], ["2019-02-23", 0.394], ["2019-02-23", 0.391], ["2019-02-25", 0.391], ["2019-02-25", 0.391], ["2019-02-26", 0.386], ["2019-02-26", 0.385], ["2019-02-26", 0.38], ["2019-02-26", 0.371], ["2019-02-27", 0.366], ["2019-02-27", 0.366], ["2019-02-27", 0.367], ["2019-02-27", 0.369], ["2019-02-27", 0.371]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1533/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | When unveiling Model 3 in 2016 Musk was promising "well of course it'll be $35,000", but since then Tesla has struggled to deliver.
Recently, during the conference call for Tesla’s third quarter financial results Musk was saying:
If we could produce a $35,000 car today, we would do it. We need more work, there is more work to do before in order to make a $35,000 car and have it be positive gross margin. We’re probably less than six months from that. That’s our mission.
The same sentiment was reiterated in the "Tesla Third Quarter 2018 Update" document.
We all know that Musk time works differently, probably already in Martian Years, so the question asks:
Will Tesla deliver first new $35,000 Model 3 in 2019?
In order for this question to resolve positively there needs to be a report that the first $35,000 Model 3 was deliver to a customer before midnight of the last day of 2019. The car must be new and the price reported on tesla.com for United States must be $35,000 or less before savings. In other words the price must not include potential incentives and gas savings. See the screenshot. | true | 2019-02-27 | Will Tesla deliver first $35,000 Model 3 in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-11-07 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-13", 0.01], ["2018-11-13", 0.095], ["2018-11-13", 0.082], ["2018-11-13", 0.109], ["2018-11-14", 0.164], ["2018-11-14", 0.158], ["2018-11-14", 0.157], ["2018-11-14", 0.167], ["2018-11-15", 0.174], ["2018-11-15", 0.169], ["2018-11-15", 0.222], ["2018-11-15", 0.214], ["2018-11-16", 0.223], ["2018-11-16", 0.245], ["2018-11-16", 0.245], ["2018-11-16", 0.243], ["2018-11-17", 0.263], ["2018-11-17", 0.263], ["2018-11-17", 0.254], ["2018-11-18", 0.251], ["2018-11-18", 0.247], ["2018-11-19", 0.245], ["2018-11-19", 0.244], ["2018-11-20", 0.244], ["2018-11-20", 0.244], ["2018-11-22", 0.244], ["2018-11-22", 0.248], ["2018-11-22", 0.248], ["2018-11-23", 0.244], ["2018-11-23", 0.248], ["2018-11-24", 0.248], ["2018-11-26", 0.248], ["2018-11-27", 0.249], ["2018-11-28", 0.248], ["2018-11-29", 0.245], ["2018-12-04", 0.244], ["2018-12-05", 0.244], ["2018-12-07", 0.243], ["2018-12-08", 0.239], ["2018-12-11", 0.238], ["2018-12-11", 0.238], ["2018-12-13", 0.238], ["2018-12-13", 0.236], ["2018-12-15", 0.235], ["2018-12-17", 0.234], ["2018-12-17", 0.234], ["2018-12-21", 0.234], ["2018-12-21", 0.234], ["2018-12-21", 0.232], ["2018-12-23", 0.231], ["2018-12-23", 0.231], ["2018-12-26", 0.231], ["2018-12-26", 0.229], ["2018-12-27", 0.23], ["2018-12-27", 0.23], ["2018-12-28", 0.23], ["2019-01-01", 0.229], ["2019-01-02", 0.231], ["2019-01-02", 0.231], ["2019-01-03", 0.228], ["2019-01-04", 0.228], ["2019-01-04", 0.228], ["2019-01-04", 0.229], ["2019-01-05", 0.228], ["2019-01-05", 0.228], ["2019-01-07", 0.23], ["2019-01-08", 0.23], ["2019-01-08", 0.227], ["2019-01-12", 0.227], ["2019-01-12", 0.225], ["2019-01-12", 0.225], ["2019-01-14", 0.224], ["2019-01-15", 0.223], ["2019-01-15", 0.222], ["2019-01-16", 0.222], ["2019-01-16", 0.223], ["2019-01-17", 0.223], ["2019-01-17", 0.221], ["2019-01-18", 0.22], ["2019-01-19", 0.219], ["2019-01-19", 0.219], ["2019-01-20", 0.218], ["2019-01-21", 0.218], ["2019-01-21", 0.212], ["2019-01-22", 0.21], ["2019-01-23", 0.209], ["2019-01-24", 0.209], ["2019-01-25", 0.208], ["2019-01-25", 0.208], ["2019-01-25", 0.206], ["2019-01-26", 0.205], ["2019-01-26", 0.205], ["2019-01-27", 0.205], ["2019-01-28", 0.203], ["2019-01-28", 0.204], ["2019-01-29", 0.204], ["2019-01-29", 0.201], ["2019-01-30", 0.2], ["2019-01-31", 0.196], ["2019-01-31", 0.194], ["2019-01-31", 0.194]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1550/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | As a follow up on a previous question that resolved firmly negative, let's extend our timeline to the next year.
Trumps's approval rating has hovered in the low-40s since the start of 2018, a slight recovery from last year's high-30s. The economy has thus far remained steadfast, and a bombshell from the Mueller investigation seems unlikely at the moment. Presidential approval ratings tend to revert to to the mean over time, although whether it can do so from 42% in a year is another question entirely.
And again on a morbid note, a major terrorist attack or other calamity could temporarily spike Trump's popularity in a Rally Around the Flag effect.
By December 31, 2019, will there be a day where Trump's approval rating is 50% or above on 538's aggregate "all polls" approval tracker? | true | 2019-02-01 | Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the end of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2021-01-03 | 2018-11-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.625], ["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.712], ["2018-11-23", 0.712], ["2018-11-23", 0.65], ["2018-11-23", 0.636], ["2018-11-24", 0.636], ["2018-11-24", 0.627], ["2018-11-24", 0.613], ["2018-11-25", 0.62], ["2018-11-25", 0.623], ["2018-11-25", 0.619], ["2018-11-25", 0.63], ["2018-11-25", 0.632], ["2018-11-25", 0.623], ["2018-11-25", 0.629], ["2018-11-25", 0.623], ["2018-11-25", 0.62], ["2018-11-25", 0.606], ["2018-11-26", 0.621], ["2018-11-26", 0.627], ["2018-11-26", 0.641], ["2018-11-26", 0.639], ["2018-11-27", 0.639], ["2018-11-27", 0.637], ["2018-11-28", 0.637], ["2018-11-29", 0.639], ["2018-12-01", 0.646], ["2018-12-01", 0.631], ["2018-12-02", 0.631], ["2018-12-04", 0.633], ["2018-12-08", 0.633], ["2018-12-15", 0.638], ["2018-12-23", 0.638], ["2018-12-26", 0.642], ["2018-12-26", 0.646], ["2018-12-31", 0.646], ["2019-01-01", 0.646], ["2019-01-04", 0.651], ["2019-01-12", 0.651], ["2019-01-16", 0.643], ["2019-01-17", 0.648], ["2019-01-18", 0.648], ["2019-01-31", 0.653], ["2019-02-03", 0.653], ["2019-02-26", 0.657], ["2019-03-27", 0.657], ["2019-04-14", 0.645], ["2019-05-05", 0.645], ["2019-05-30", 0.652], ["2019-06-08", 0.652], ["2019-06-16", 0.654], ["2019-06-24", 0.655], ["2019-06-25", 0.655], ["2019-06-28", 0.661], ["2019-06-28", 0.661], ["2019-06-28", 0.664], ["2019-07-03", 0.672], ["2019-07-26", 0.673], ["2019-07-31", 0.673], ["2019-08-05", 0.677], ["2019-08-08", 0.677], ["2019-08-16", 0.676], ["2019-08-22", 0.674], ["2019-08-22", 0.674], ["2019-08-26", 0.673], ["2019-09-03", 0.662], ["2019-09-14", 0.665], ["2019-09-15", 0.671], ["2019-09-22", 0.671], ["2019-09-27", 0.676], ["2019-10-03", 0.679], ["2019-10-14", 0.682], ["2019-10-15", 0.682], ["2019-10-18", 0.684], ["2019-10-22", 0.684], ["2019-10-30", 0.679], ["2019-11-08", 0.685], ["2019-11-12", 0.686], ["2019-11-18", 0.688], ["2019-11-24", 0.69], ["2019-11-25", 0.693], ["2019-11-25", 0.693], ["2019-11-25", 0.694], ["2019-11-25", 0.693], ["2019-11-25", 0.691], ["2019-11-25", 0.692], ["2019-11-25", 0.693], ["2019-11-27", 0.692], ["2019-11-27", 0.695], ["2019-11-27", 0.695], ["2019-11-28", 0.699], ["2019-11-28", 0.7], ["2019-11-29", 0.7], ["2019-11-29", 0.698], ["2019-11-29", 0.701], ["2019-11-30", 0.699], ["2019-11-30", 0.698], ["2019-12-01", 0.702], ["2019-12-01", 0.701]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1555/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Environment & Energy | Dutch inventor Boyan Slat founded the Ocean Cleanup, an ambitious project to remove plastic from the oceans. On September 8, 2018 they launched their new system. Here’s how it works:
CREATE A COASTLINE
The system consists of a 600-meter-long floater that sits at the surface of the water and a tapered 3-meter-deep skirt attached below. The floater provides buoyancy to the system and prevents plastic from flowing over it, while the skirt stops debris from escaping underneath.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF NATURAL OCEANIC FORCES
Both the plastic and system are being carried by the current. However, wind and waves propel only the system, as the floater sits just above the water surface, while the plastic is primarily just beneath it. The system thus moves faster than the plastic, allowing the plastic to be captured.
CONCENTRATE THE PLASTIC AND TAKE IT OUT
Natural forces move the system faster than the plastic which allows the plastic to be captured in the center of the system. The Ocean Cleanup Technology
Slat's system is currently en route to the Great Pacific Garbage Patch where it will face the most rigorous test thus far. The next milestone for The Ocean Cleanup is to have 60 systems up and running by 2021. Positive resolution is if they fail to meet their goal.
Resolution: Question resolves as affirmative if a credible news agency reports that The Ocean Cleanup failed to have 60 systems up and running by January 1, 2021, or if no information indicating they reached their goal arrives by 1/1/2021. | true | 2019-12-01 | Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-09-16 | 2018-11-09 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-12", 0.105], ["2018-11-12", 0.105], ["2018-11-12", 0.153], ["2018-11-13", 0.192], ["2018-11-13", 0.192], ["2018-11-13", 0.237], ["2018-11-13", 0.259], ["2018-11-13", 0.26], ["2018-11-13", 0.246], ["2018-11-13", 0.246], ["2018-11-13", 0.3], ["2018-11-14", 0.3], ["2018-11-14", 0.323], ["2018-11-14", 0.332], ["2018-11-15", 0.379], ["2018-11-15", 0.379], ["2018-11-16", 0.389], ["2018-11-17", 0.389], ["2018-11-17", 0.389], ["2018-11-18", 0.386], ["2018-12-07", 0.379], ["2018-12-07", 0.37], ["2018-12-08", 0.387], ["2018-12-10", 0.389], ["2018-12-16", 0.377], ["2018-12-17", 0.379], ["2018-12-18", 0.38], ["2018-12-18", 0.372], ["2018-12-18", 0.374], ["2018-12-20", 0.372], ["2018-12-29", 0.376], ["2018-12-29", 0.38], ["2018-12-29", 0.379], ["2019-01-06", 0.37], ["2019-01-15", 0.368], ["2019-01-19", 0.363], ["2019-01-19", 0.358], ["2019-01-21", 0.36], ["2019-01-21", 0.36], ["2019-01-22", 0.356], ["2019-01-26", 0.356], ["2019-01-29", 0.349], ["2019-01-31", 0.349], ["2019-02-01", 0.344], ["2019-02-01", 0.344], ["2019-02-03", 0.342], ["2019-02-05", 0.339], ["2019-02-06", 0.337], ["2019-02-11", 0.337], ["2019-02-11", 0.332], ["2019-02-15", 0.33], ["2019-02-22", 0.324], ["2019-02-24", 0.32], ["2019-02-25", 0.32], ["2019-03-03", 0.317], ["2019-03-05", 0.317], ["2019-03-09", 0.316], ["2019-03-09", 0.316], ["2019-03-10", 0.314], ["2019-03-11", 0.312], ["2019-03-12", 0.309], ["2019-03-16", 0.305], ["2019-03-17", 0.305], ["2019-03-19", 0.305], ["2019-03-19", 0.304], ["2019-03-20", 0.304], ["2019-03-21", 0.307], ["2019-03-22", 0.3], ["2019-03-22", 0.3], ["2019-03-22", 0.302], ["2019-03-23", 0.302], ["2019-03-23", 0.299], ["2019-03-24", 0.3], ["2019-03-24", 0.298], ["2019-03-25", 0.296], ["2019-03-25", 0.295], ["2019-03-25", 0.293], ["2019-03-26", 0.293], ["2019-03-26", 0.296], ["2019-03-27", 0.296], ["2019-03-27", 0.3], ["2019-03-27", 0.3], ["2019-03-27", 0.298], ["2019-03-27", 0.297], ["2019-03-28", 0.294], ["2019-03-29", 0.292], ["2019-03-30", 0.29], ["2019-03-30", 0.29], ["2019-03-30", 0.288], ["2019-03-30", 0.286], ["2019-03-30", 0.286], ["2019-03-30", 0.284], ["2019-03-30", 0.282], ["2019-03-31", 0.281], ["2019-03-31", 0.28]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1556/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Following the Hessian State Election in 2018, and the huge losses of the federal coalition parties SPD and CDU represented therein, Chancellor Angela Merkel announced she would not seek re-election as German Chancellor in 2021, nor for head of party later this year.
The latter is particularly interesting since Merkel herself always insisted on the Chancellor also holding the office of respective party chairman, a practise she criticised her predecessor, Gerhard Schröder, for abandoning in light of rising criticism regarding his reform plans.
Her current prospective successors as chairmen of the CDU are:
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the unofficial favourite,
Friedrich Merz, who had left politics a decade ago, and
Jens Spahn, the current Minister of Health.
There are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office prematurely for a successor to gain valuable experience as a chancellor. But it is doubtful if the junior partner in the coalition, the SPD, would support such a move, preferring new elections instead. Similarly the new chairman may obstruct Merkel in parliament to raise their profile for the next federal elections, possibly to the extent of triggering premature federal elections.
Thus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?
Resolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else. | true | 2019-03-31 | Will there be extraordinary or premature federal elections held in Germany before their next election cycle? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-05-17 | 2018-11-15 | ["https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardi\u2026).", "https://m.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politics/23\u2026", "https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics\u2026"] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.645], ["2018-12-04", 0.65], ["2018-12-04", 0.653], ["2018-12-05", 0.662], ["2018-12-05", 0.662], ["2018-12-05", 0.652], ["2018-12-05", 0.651], ["2018-12-05", 0.64], ["2018-12-06", 0.64], ["2018-12-06", 0.626], ["2018-12-08", 0.624], ["2018-12-09", 0.61], ["2018-12-10", 0.607], ["2018-12-10", 0.599], ["2018-12-10", 0.596], ["2018-12-12", 0.597], ["2018-12-13", 0.606], ["2018-12-13", 0.606], ["2019-01-05", 0.61], ["2019-01-05", 0.613], ["2019-01-07", 0.609], ["2019-01-16", 0.612], ["2019-01-16", 0.612], ["2019-01-16", 0.616], ["2019-01-16", 0.621], ["2019-01-16", 0.634], ["2019-01-16", 0.634], ["2019-01-16", 0.64], ["2019-01-16", 0.64], ["2019-01-17", 0.659], ["2019-01-17", 0.66], ["2019-01-17", 0.665], ["2019-01-23", 0.669], ["2019-01-24", 0.666], ["2019-01-24", 0.668], ["2019-01-24", 0.669], ["2019-01-26", 0.668], ["2019-02-03", 0.674], ["2019-02-11", 0.674], ["2019-02-11", 0.688], ["2019-02-11", 0.692], ["2019-02-11", 0.694], ["2019-02-11", 0.694], ["2019-02-11", 0.702], ["2019-02-11", 0.703], ["2019-02-12", 0.703], ["2019-02-12", 0.705], ["2019-02-12", 0.702], ["2019-02-12", 0.709], ["2019-02-13", 0.709], ["2019-02-13", 0.719], ["2019-02-15", 0.727], ["2019-02-15", 0.723], ["2019-02-22", 0.724], ["2019-02-22", 0.722], ["2019-02-22", 0.731], ["2019-02-22", 0.726], ["2019-02-23", 0.739], ["2019-02-25", 0.739], ["2019-03-01", 0.737], ["2019-03-01", 0.741], ["2019-03-01", 0.741], ["2019-03-01", 0.744], ["2019-03-01", 0.746], ["2019-03-02", 0.746], ["2019-03-03", 0.751], ["2019-03-03", 0.754], ["2019-03-03", 0.754], ["2019-03-04", 0.762], ["2019-03-23", 0.765], ["2019-03-25", 0.766], ["2019-03-26", 0.767], ["2019-04-10", 0.767], ["2019-04-11", 0.762], ["2019-04-11", 0.768], ["2019-04-12", 0.768], ["2019-04-13", 0.747], ["2019-04-13", 0.752], ["2019-04-15", 0.751], ["2019-04-15", 0.751], ["2019-04-17", 0.751], ["2019-04-20", 0.751], ["2019-04-20", 0.751], ["2019-04-25", 0.757], ["2019-04-25", 0.759], ["2019-04-25", 0.758], ["2019-04-25", 0.758], ["2019-04-25", 0.758], ["2019-04-28", 0.757], ["2019-04-30", 0.757], ["2019-05-03", 0.754], ["2019-05-03", 0.754], ["2019-05-04", 0.757], ["2019-05-10", 0.754], ["2019-05-16", 0.753], ["2019-05-16", 0.753], ["2019-05-16", 0.755], ["2019-05-17", 0.755], ["2019-05-17", 0.756], ["2019-05-17", 0.757], ["2019-05-17", 0.759]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1570/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Australia is expected to hold a federal election in 2019. The centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) have been in opposition since 2013, with the centre-right Liberal-National Party (LNP, Coalition) in power or having a minority government since then.
Bill Shorten is the current leader of the ALP. The ALP has been performing well in opinion polls such as Newspoll, but Shorten has not (https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.theguardi…).
Ladbrokes betting website has these odds:https://m.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/politics/23…
Sportsbet website has these odds: https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics…
This question will resolve positively if Bill Shorten becomes Prime Minister following a federal election with the ALP holding a majority of seats in the House of Representatives OR forming a minority government.
This question will resolve negatively if the ALP form government following a federal election without Bill Shorten as their leader, even if he becomes their leader later. It will also resolve negatively if the ALP do not form government in 2019. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Australia elect Bill Shorten as Prime Minister in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-16 | 2018-11-16 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-19", 0.33], ["2018-11-19", 0.353], ["2018-11-19", 0.363], ["2018-11-19", 0.301], ["2018-11-20", 0.31], ["2018-11-20", 0.318], ["2018-11-20", 0.332], ["2018-11-20", 0.321], ["2018-11-20", 0.322], ["2018-11-21", 0.323], ["2018-11-22", 0.32], ["2018-11-22", 0.324], ["2018-11-22", 0.328], ["2018-11-22", 0.328], ["2018-11-22", 0.33], ["2018-11-23", 0.33], ["2018-11-23", 0.34], ["2018-11-24", 0.343], ["2018-11-25", 0.343], ["2018-11-26", 0.335], ["2018-11-26", 0.328], ["2018-11-27", 0.329], ["2018-11-28", 0.328], ["2018-11-28", 0.334], ["2018-11-28", 0.333], ["2018-11-28", 0.329], ["2018-11-29", 0.322], ["2018-11-29", 0.324], ["2018-11-29", 0.325], ["2018-11-29", 0.321], ["2018-11-30", 0.321], ["2018-11-30", 0.308], ["2018-11-30", 0.307], ["2018-11-30", 0.301], ["2018-12-02", 0.299], ["2018-12-03", 0.299], ["2018-12-03", 0.302], ["2018-12-04", 0.315], ["2018-12-06", 0.315], ["2018-12-07", 0.315], ["2018-12-07", 0.313], ["2018-12-08", 0.31], ["2018-12-08", 0.31], ["2018-12-09", 0.301], ["2018-12-09", 0.303], ["2018-12-10", 0.303], ["2018-12-10", 0.301], ["2018-12-11", 0.303], ["2018-12-11", 0.303], ["2018-12-11", 0.292], ["2018-12-12", 0.291], ["2018-12-12", 0.291], ["2018-12-12", 0.286], ["2018-12-12", 0.286], ["2018-12-13", 0.283], ["2018-12-13", 0.284], ["2018-12-14", 0.279], ["2018-12-14", 0.279], ["2018-12-14", 0.278], ["2018-12-15", 0.28], ["2018-12-15", 0.279], ["2018-12-15", 0.279], ["2018-12-15", 0.279], ["2018-12-16", 0.279], ["2018-12-17", 0.279], ["2018-12-17", 0.277], ["2018-12-17", 0.277], ["2018-12-18", 0.287], ["2018-12-18", 0.287], ["2018-12-18", 0.285], ["2018-12-20", 0.282], ["2018-12-20", 0.282], ["2018-12-20", 0.281], ["2018-12-21", 0.279], ["2018-12-21", 0.275], ["2018-12-21", 0.275], ["2018-12-22", 0.276], ["2018-12-22", 0.278], ["2018-12-23", 0.277], ["2018-12-23", 0.279], ["2018-12-23", 0.273], ["2018-12-24", 0.274], ["2018-12-26", 0.273], ["2018-12-28", 0.273], ["2018-12-28", 0.27], ["2018-12-28", 0.258], ["2018-12-29", 0.256], ["2018-12-29", 0.256], ["2018-12-29", 0.256], ["2018-12-29", 0.249], ["2018-12-30", 0.249], ["2018-12-30", 0.256], ["2018-12-30", 0.256], ["2018-12-30", 0.256], ["2018-12-30", 0.24], ["2018-12-30", 0.221], ["2018-12-30", 0.213], ["2018-12-31", 0.207], ["2018-12-31", 0.215], ["2018-12-31", 0.208], ["2018-12-31", 0.201]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1580/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | It was previously asked, whether the current Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo would be stopped before it killed 100 people. Sadly, that question resolved negatively and the death toll (as of the writing of this question) has reached 210.
It is unclear whether the outbreak will be contained in the near future or whether it will be able to spread.
In order to get a question that should resolve in the relatively near future, it is asked:Will this outbreak be declared over by the WHO before it claims 400 lives?
Resolution is by credible media report. Should resolution triggering information become available prior to question closure, the question shall retroactively close 24 hours prior to that information becoming available. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will the current Ebola outbreak be stopped before it claims 400 lives? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-31 | 2018-11-17 | [] | binary | [["2018-11-19", 0.55], ["2018-11-19", 0.585], ["2018-11-19", 0.668], ["2018-11-19", 0.612], ["2018-11-19", 0.655], ["2018-11-19", 0.668], ["2018-11-19", 0.666], ["2018-11-20", 0.669], ["2018-11-20", 0.665], ["2018-11-20", 0.665], ["2018-11-20", 0.629], ["2018-11-20", 0.627], ["2018-11-20", 0.632], ["2018-11-20", 0.632], ["2018-11-20", 0.648], ["2018-11-20", 0.647], ["2018-11-20", 0.636], ["2018-11-20", 0.611], ["2018-11-20", 0.612], ["2018-11-20", 0.612], ["2018-11-20", 0.612], ["2018-11-20", 0.612], ["2018-11-21", 0.604], ["2018-11-21", 0.621], ["2018-11-21", 0.621], ["2018-11-21", 0.621], ["2018-11-21", 0.624], ["2018-11-21", 0.627], ["2018-11-21", 0.609], ["2018-11-21", 0.616], ["2018-11-21", 0.639], ["2018-11-21", 0.648], ["2018-11-21", 0.648], ["2018-11-21", 0.642], ["2018-11-21", 0.642], ["2018-11-21", 0.652], ["2018-11-22", 0.65], ["2018-11-22", 0.654], ["2018-11-22", 0.654], ["2018-11-22", 0.656], ["2018-11-22", 0.658], ["2018-11-22", 0.685], ["2018-11-22", 0.689], ["2018-11-22", 0.688], ["2018-11-22", 0.691], ["2018-11-22", 0.696], ["2018-11-23", 0.688], ["2018-11-23", 0.687], ["2018-11-23", 0.685], ["2018-11-23", 0.685], ["2018-11-24", 0.69], ["2018-11-25", 0.692], ["2018-11-25", 0.692], ["2018-11-25", 0.695], ["2018-11-25", 0.695], ["2018-11-25", 0.697], ["2018-11-25", 0.709], ["2018-11-26", 0.71], ["2018-11-26", 0.71], ["2018-11-26", 0.714], ["2018-11-26", 0.716], ["2018-11-26", 0.716], ["2018-11-26", 0.732], ["2018-11-26", 0.733], ["2018-11-27", 0.733], ["2018-11-27", 0.734], ["2018-11-27", 0.734], ["2018-11-27", 0.734], ["2018-11-27", 0.735], ["2018-11-27", 0.736], ["2018-11-27", 0.737], ["2018-11-27", 0.735], ["2018-11-28", 0.737], ["2018-11-28", 0.739], ["2018-11-28", 0.738], ["2018-11-28", 0.737], ["2018-11-28", 0.737], ["2018-11-28", 0.737], ["2018-11-28", 0.739], ["2018-11-28", 0.738], ["2018-11-28", 0.738], ["2018-11-28", 0.74], ["2018-11-29", 0.74], ["2018-11-29", 0.737], ["2018-11-29", 0.737], ["2018-11-29", 0.737], ["2018-11-29", 0.739], ["2018-11-29", 0.741], ["2018-11-29", 0.738], ["2018-11-29", 0.738], ["2018-11-29", 0.739], ["2018-11-29", 0.742], ["2018-11-29", 0.742], ["2018-11-29", 0.742], ["2018-11-30", 0.744], ["2018-11-30", 0.744], ["2018-11-30", 0.746], ["2018-11-30", 0.746], ["2018-11-30", 0.746], ["2018-11-30", 0.749], ["2018-11-30", 0.749]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1581/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | UK is currently in a state of political turmoil after cold reception of Theresa's May government draft Brexit Withdrawal Agreement.
According to the Independent:
The 1922 Committee, currently chaired by Sir Graham Brady, has the power to trigger a no confidence vote in the party leader in the event that it receives such letters from 15 per cent of MPs (meaning 48 at present). Once the threshold is passed Sir Graham is obliged to begin the vote as soon as possible.
If the prime minister survives the vote and sees off a leadership challenge, she would be rewarded with a year’s immunity from a fresh coup attempt.
But if she were to lose, she would be obliged to step down and allow for the election of a replacement, once again plunging Westminster into chaos. Downing Street has said Ms May would fight any no confidence motion.
A no confidence vote was last successfully used in 1979 and before that in 1924.
The question asks will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at 1 January 2019?
Related questions:
Will the UK actually leave the EU?
Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?
Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?
Will the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement be rejected?
Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019? | true | 2018-11-30 | Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
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Theresa's May government is a minority government dependent on support of Democratic Unionist Party.
Currently the crucial question for Brexit process is whether the first draft of Brexit withdrawal agreement will be rejected, and what happens after that.
One possibility is that UK will hold general elections.
Therefore, this question asks:
Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019?
Related questions:
Will the UK actually leave the EU?
Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?
Will there be a "no-deal" Brexit?
Will Theresa May be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2019? | true | 2018-12-15 | Will UK have general elections before 29 March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion in just over 6 years. And one year before it hit $1 trillion, it was worth ~0.46 trillion (which would have resolved a similar question positive).
Will the first publicly traded company to have a $2 trillion market cap be worth double what it was worth 1 year before reaching $2 trillion?
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $2 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $1 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service.
Methodology clarification (03/03/19): Current quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's GDP implicit price deflator. If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's real broad effective exchange rate of the current quarter. | true | 2025-06-16 | When the first company reaches a $2 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before? | metaculus | 1 |
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Multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct as part of the broader Me Too campaign or "Weinstein effect". In November 2017, he released a statement corroborating the claims, saying that "these stories are true" and that he would "step back and take a long time to listen".
After withdrawing from public life for nine months, in August 2018 he performed an un-billed, 'surprise' stand-up set at New York's Comedy Cellar. In October, he performed at the Comedy Cellar again, but this time his name was advertised outside. And earlier this month, on November 8th, he appeared on stage at a venue in Paris, performing a set that reportedly lasted over an hour.
Although his first public appearance in August was apparently met with a "standing ovation", his surprisingly quick return has earned negative reactions from comedians, audience members and opinion writers alike. In spite of this outcry, C.K. has been steadily raising his public profile. This question asks the following:
Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up comedy special before 2021?
A "stand-up comedy special" is defined here as a piece of recorded media that fulfils the following criteria:
Total run time of at least 30 minutes
Stand-up comedy – that is, a single comedian performing to a live audience with the primary intention of making them laugh – is performed for at least 1/2 of the total run time (minus credits and intro)
At least 3/4 of the stand-up comedy appearing in the piece of media is performed by C.K.
Details: the recording has to be intentionally released by C.K. or his professional representation; the recording has to be accessible to 'laypeople' who don't work in the media industry; it has to be a recording of previously unreleased material; it does not necessarily have to cost money to view; the official release date in at least one jurisdiction has to be before January 1st 2021; and it can be in audio or video format, so a stand-up comedy album will also count as a "special" here. The criteria are intended to exclude "showcases" in which C.K. is one performer of many, documentaries or other formats featuring C.K. in which he performs a small amount of stand-up, re-releases of previous material, recordings in which C.K. opens for another comedian who is the main act, surreptitious recordings of live performances, and leaks or limited releases of specials before 2021 when the official release date is after 31st December 2020. | true | 2019-12-31 | Will Louis C.K. release a stand-up special before 2021? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-10-14 | 2018-11-30 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.23], ["2018-12-04", 0.19], ["2018-12-04", 0.227], ["2018-12-04", 0.227], ["2018-12-04", 0.245], ["2018-12-04", 0.29], ["2018-12-04", 0.291], ["2018-12-04", 0.275], ["2018-12-04", 0.292], ["2018-12-04", 0.283], ["2018-12-04", 0.283], ["2018-12-05", 0.303], ["2018-12-05", 0.303], ["2018-12-05", 0.304], ["2018-12-06", 0.297], ["2018-12-08", 0.297], ["2018-12-08", 0.299], ["2018-12-09", 0.302], ["2018-12-09", 0.306], ["2018-12-11", 0.301], ["2019-01-01", 0.304], ["2019-01-01", 0.304], ["2019-01-02", 0.312], ["2019-01-04", 0.316], ["2019-01-04", 0.314], ["2019-01-10", 0.313], ["2019-01-13", 0.313], ["2019-01-15", 0.305], ["2019-01-18", 0.305], ["2019-01-25", 0.297], ["2019-01-29", 0.298], ["2019-01-29", 0.293], ["2019-01-30", 0.293], ["2019-01-30", 0.292], ["2019-01-31", 0.292], ["2019-02-03", 0.292], ["2019-02-04", 0.291], ["2019-02-04", 0.294], ["2019-02-04", 0.294], ["2019-02-06", 0.294], ["2019-02-24", 0.293], ["2019-02-25", 0.293], ["2019-02-25", 0.296], ["2019-02-28", 0.296], ["2019-03-02", 0.295], ["2019-03-04", 0.295], ["2019-03-13", 0.295], ["2019-03-23", 0.29], ["2019-03-27", 0.29], ["2019-04-05", 0.293], ["2019-04-09", 0.293], ["2019-04-12", 0.286], ["2019-04-17", 0.285], ["2019-04-17", 0.285], ["2019-04-17", 0.287], ["2019-04-26", 0.288], ["2019-04-27", 0.285], ["2019-04-29", 0.285], ["2019-05-04", 0.279], ["2019-05-16", 0.28], ["2019-05-20", 0.28], ["2019-05-21", 0.277], ["2019-05-29", 0.277], ["2019-06-09", 0.274], ["2019-06-11", 0.274], ["2019-06-15", 0.274], ["2019-06-16", 0.277], ["2019-06-17", 0.276], ["2019-06-20", 0.276], ["2019-06-24", 0.277], ["2019-06-24", 0.278], ["2019-06-29", 0.278], ["2019-06-29", 0.277], ["2019-07-02", 0.278], ["2019-07-04", 0.278], ["2019-07-07", 0.278], ["2019-07-21", 0.277], ["2019-07-23", 0.277], ["2019-07-23", 0.277], ["2019-07-23", 0.276], ["2019-07-24", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-27", 0.277], ["2019-07-28", 0.277], ["2019-07-29", 0.281], ["2019-07-30", 0.281], ["2019-07-30", 0.283], ["2019-07-30", 0.282], ["2019-07-31", 0.279], ["2019-07-31", 0.279], ["2019-07-31", 0.278], ["2019-07-31", 0.278], ["2019-07-31", 0.278], ["2019-07-31", 0.277]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1602/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | The People's Republic of China (PRC) is the most populous country in the world, with 1.4 billion inhabitants. It is also the second-largest economy in the world by GDP.
However, the number of people who have won Nobel Prizes and who were PRC citizens at the time they won their prize is very small: under the strictest definition, only three people meet these criteria. They were awarded prizes in 2010, 2012 and 2015.
This question asks the following:
When the winners of the 2019 Nobel Prizes are officially announced, will one of the them be a current citizen of the PRC?
For the purposes of this question:
In addition to the Nobel Prizes in Chemistry, Literature, Peace, Physics, and Physiology or Medicine, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is also considered a "Nobel Prize"
Both of the two Nobel Prizes in Literature that will be awarded in 2019 will be considered as a "2019 Nobel Prize", unless the organisation specifically names one of them as being a 2018 Nobel Prize
A Chinese citizen being one of two or three people who share a Nobel Prize in 2019 will meet resolution criteria
If an organisation of more than three people wins a Nobel Prize – as occurred for the Peace Prizes in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2017 – it will not meet the criteria for positive resolution, even if the organisation is based in China and staffed entirely by Chinese citizens
In the unlikely event that a new Prize category is awarded in 2019, and that this Prize is officially listed as a Prize on the Nobel Prize website, this Prize will also count as a "Nobel Prize", even if, as for Economic Sciences, the Prize is described as a "Nobel Memorial Prize" or similar
Considerations:
It is difficult to simultaneously hold Chinese citizenship and citizenship of another country. According to the Nationality Law of the PRC:
"Any Chinese national who has settled abroad and who has been naturalized as a foreign national or has acquired foreign nationality of his own free will shall automatically lose Chinese nationality."
"Any person born abroad whose parents are both Chinese nationals and [sic - I presume "or" would be more accurate] one of whose parents is a Chinese national shall have Chinese nationality. But a person whose parents are both Chinese nationals and have both settled abroad, or one of whose parents is a Chinese national and has settled abroad, and who has acquired foreign nationality at birth shall not have Chinese nationality."
"Settled abroad" seems to mean "have established permanent residence in a country that isn't the PRC".
As mentioned above, only three Nobel laureates were PRC citizens at the time of their award. However, the two winners of the 1957 Nobel Prize in Physics represent an interesting edge case. They were both born in the Republic of China, the state that ruled over mainland China prior to the PRC, and were citizens of that country. However, they moved abroad a few years before the formation of the PRC was declared by Mao Zedong in 1949, and thus did not acquire PRC citizenship. Technically, they remained citizens of the Republic of China.
The process for nominating people for a Nobel Prize has already begun. If the linked schedule is correct for this year, winners will be announced by each Nobel Committee in early October 2019, and the award ceremony will be held in December 2019. The resolution criteria are focused on the time of the announcement, rather than the time of the award ceremony.
The names of nominees cannot be publicly revealed by the Nobel Committees for each prize until "50 years later"; however, people who nominate others for a Nobel Prize sometimes do divulge who they have nominated, particularly for the Peace Prize. | true | 2019-07-31 | Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-15 | 2018-12-01 | ["https://www.reddit.com/r/all/top/?t=day"] | binary | [["2018-12-04", 0.765], ["2018-12-04", 0.765], ["2018-12-04", 0.867], ["2018-12-04", 0.87], ["2018-12-04", 0.87], ["2018-12-04", 0.837], ["2018-12-04", 0.852], ["2018-12-04", 0.852], ["2018-12-04", 0.845], ["2018-12-04", 0.845], ["2018-12-05", 0.845], ["2018-12-05", 0.848], ["2018-12-05", 0.852], ["2018-12-05", 0.852], ["2018-12-05", 0.844], ["2018-12-05", 0.844], ["2018-12-05", 0.853], ["2018-12-05", 0.838], ["2018-12-05", 0.838], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.842], ["2018-12-05", 0.841], ["2018-12-05", 0.836], ["2018-12-06", 0.829], ["2018-12-07", 0.82], ["2018-12-07", 0.82], ["2018-12-07", 0.826], ["2018-12-08", 0.826], ["2018-12-08", 0.825], ["2018-12-09", 0.821], ["2018-12-09", 0.822], ["2018-12-10", 0.822], ["2018-12-10", 0.825], ["2018-12-11", 0.825], ["2018-12-11", 0.824], ["2018-12-11", 0.826], ["2018-12-11", 0.824], ["2018-12-11", 0.824], ["2018-12-11", 0.819], ["2018-12-11", 0.822], ["2018-12-12", 0.825], ["2018-12-12", 0.822], ["2018-12-12", 0.825], ["2018-12-12", 0.825], ["2018-12-12", 0.825], ["2018-12-12", 0.826], ["2018-12-12", 0.829], ["2018-12-12", 0.833], ["2018-12-12", 0.833], ["2018-12-12", 0.833], ["2018-12-12", 0.833], ["2018-12-12", 0.832], ["2018-12-12", 0.832], ["2018-12-12", 0.832], ["2018-12-12", 0.826], ["2018-12-12", 0.83], ["2018-12-12", 0.817], ["2018-12-12", 0.817], ["2018-12-12", 0.817], ["2018-12-13", 0.816], ["2018-12-13", 0.816], ["2018-12-13", 0.812], ["2018-12-13", 0.812], ["2018-12-13", 0.814], ["2018-12-13", 0.813], ["2018-12-13", 0.813], ["2018-12-13", 0.813]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1605/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | reddit is a social news aggregator and the 21st most visited site globally. Users submit links, images or text to 'subreddit' communities on the site which are then voted and commented on by other users. A score are given for each submission that has some relationship to the number of 'upvotes' minus the number of 'downvotes'.
This question asks the following:
Will the "top submissions over the last 24 hours" on https://www.reddit.com/r/all/top/?t=day include a submission with a score of at least 100,000 on December 15th 2018?
Details:
To counter vote manipulation, reddit applies a form of 'fuzzing' to each post's score, such that the precise value shown varies slightly on each refresh. This means that different users see different scores for the same post. To prevent ambiguity in the resolution, the scores of the "top submissions over the last 24 hours" will be defined as the scores shown on the most recent snapshot of the site on archive.org with a listed time after December 14th 2018 23:59 GMT.
archive.org has produced at least one snapshot of that page on most individual days over the past few months. However, there is a chance that no snapshot will be produced on December 15th (GMT), so it's possible that the actual snapshot used for the resolution will have been captured one or more days after that date. | true | 2018-12-13 | Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-06-30 | 2018-12-01 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-05", 0.4], ["2018-12-05", 0.45], ["2018-12-05", 0.4], ["2018-12-06", 0.4], ["2018-12-06", 0.362], ["2018-12-06", 0.373], ["2018-12-06", 0.373], ["2018-12-06", 0.342], ["2018-12-06", 0.323], ["2018-12-06", 0.323], ["2018-12-07", 0.323], ["2018-12-07", 0.318], ["2018-12-08", 0.31], ["2018-12-08", 0.305], ["2018-12-08", 0.305], ["2018-12-09", 0.304], ["2018-12-09", 0.304], ["2018-12-10", 0.294], ["2018-12-11", 0.296], ["2018-12-11", 0.291], ["2018-12-11", 0.291], ["2018-12-12", 0.293], ["2018-12-12", 0.293], ["2018-12-12", 0.294], ["2018-12-13", 0.294], ["2018-12-17", 0.292], ["2018-12-17", 0.307], ["2018-12-18", 0.304], ["2018-12-18", 0.3], ["2018-12-20", 0.301], ["2018-12-20", 0.301], ["2018-12-21", 0.298], ["2018-12-21", 0.298], ["2018-12-22", 0.299], ["2018-12-22", 0.299], ["2018-12-24", 0.303], ["2018-12-25", 0.303], ["2018-12-28", 0.293], ["2018-12-28", 0.293], ["2018-12-29", 0.294], ["2018-12-30", 0.294], ["2018-12-30", 0.291], ["2018-12-30", 0.294], ["2018-12-30", 0.292], ["2018-12-31", 0.292]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1607/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | Denisovans are a clade of hominins discovered in 2009. They are fascinating, unusual and mysterious:
Firstly, they are the first ancient hominin whose existence was inferred not by analysis of fossil features, but by analysing DNA – from a pinky finger bone. Secondly, all confirmed Denisovan samples are teeth and fragments of bone found only in a single cave in Siberia. Thirdly, DNA derived from Denisovans or their close relatives makes up around 5% of the genomes of many Melanesian and Aboriginal Australian groups, and a lower but non-zero proportion for other Asians as well as Amerindians. Fourthly, the genetic adaptation of Tibetans and Sherpas to high-altitude living was achieved by at least one Denisovan-derived variant. Fifthly, an astounding discovery was presented earlier in 2018 in the form of a first-generation hybrid between a Neanderthal mother and a Denisovan father.
Including the hybrid, the genetic data of only five Denisovans has been published to date. This question asks the following:
Between January 1st and June 30th 2019 inclusive, will a scientific paper be published describing genetic data from a new Denisova hominin?
Details:
The genetic data must be from a new individual, and thus cannot be a previously described individual sequenced to higher coverage
The full genetic data for the individual must be described in the paper as being at least 40% Denisovan in ancestry. For instance, a Denisovan mitochondrial genome will fulfil resolution criteria, as will nuclear DNA from another first-generation hybrid.
Edge case: if the individual is described as having (fully) Denisovan mitochondrial DNA but < 40% nuclear Denisovan DNA, this individual will not be considered a "Denisovan"
If the individual is described in the paper as a "Denisovan relative" rather than a "Denisovan", this will not fulfil resolution criteria
The paper must describe the results of at least one "analysis" of the Denisovan genetic data; if the data, or an analysis of the data, is described briefly as "in review" or "unpublished", this will not fulfil resolution criteria
If under 5,000 bases are called for the individual, this will not fulfil resolution criteria
The genetic material must be unambiguously assigned to a single individual, thus excluding metagenomic data such as that extracted from sediment
The scientific paper must be published in a "mainstream" journal, such that it follows the definition of a Metaculus "credible source"
Preprints on bioRxiv or other preprint repositories will not fulfil resolution criteria
The publish date must be between the dates listed; if the article has a second, earlier date than the published date that is described as "early access", "published online at" or similar, this date cannot be used to fulfil resolution criteria | true | 2018-12-31 | Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2018-12-12 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-05", 0.88], ["2018-12-05", 0.875], ["2018-12-05", 0.823], ["2018-12-05", 0.82], ["2018-12-05", 0.82], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.802], ["2018-12-05", 0.816], ["2018-12-06", 0.816], ["2018-12-06", 0.813], ["2018-12-06", 0.823], ["2018-12-06", 0.821], ["2018-12-07", 0.821], ["2018-12-07", 0.828], ["2018-12-07", 0.807], ["2018-12-07", 0.807], ["2018-12-07", 0.811], ["2018-12-07", 0.816], ["2018-12-07", 0.825], ["2018-12-07", 0.832], ["2018-12-07", 0.832], ["2018-12-07", 0.832], ["2018-12-07", 0.834], ["2018-12-07", 0.837], ["2018-12-07", 0.837], ["2018-12-07", 0.841], ["2018-12-08", 0.846], ["2018-12-08", 0.849], ["2018-12-08", 0.849], ["2018-12-09", 0.838], ["2018-12-09", 0.84], ["2018-12-09", 0.84], ["2018-12-09", 0.841], ["2018-12-09", 0.847], ["2018-12-10", 0.847], ["2018-12-10", 0.848], ["2018-12-10", 0.848]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1608/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Other | A quick exercise to test predictors' abilities at looking up relevant information and calculating simple probabilities.
I ask predictors to not post comments with details about the Mega Millions lottery or their predictions before the close date.
Will the U.S. Mega Millions lottery draw on December 11th 2018 contain at least one prime number? | true | 2018-12-10 | Will the Mega Millions draw on December 11th 2018 contain a prime number? | metaculus | 1 |
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It's not going well for them so far. With 14 matches played out of 38, they are currently placed at the bottom of the table, having lost 10 of their games.
If they end the season in the bottom three teams of twenty, they will be relegated back to the Championship.
This question asks the following:
Will Fulham F.C. be placed within the bottom three positions of the English Premier League at the end of the 2018–19 season, after any potential play-off matches to decide ties?
This question closes before matchday 29, leaving ten matches to be played by every team. | true | 2019-03-01 | Will Fulham be relegated from the English Premier League? | metaculus | 1 |
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AncestryDNA is one service in this industry. It is offered by Ancestry.com, a genealogy website with Mormon roots. The AncestryDNA database reached 10 million individuals at some point over the summer, a fact advertised on their website. And a press release four days ago (November 29th 2018) states that they have sold "14 million DNA kits", although it's not clear if this number has a one-to-one relationship with the number of people whose genetic information is 'in their database'. (From experience, there can be quite some time between buying a kit and your results being accessible.)
AncestryDNA is also stepping on the toes of more human biology–oriented services such as 23andMe – it recently launched a product called AncestryDNA Traits, which attempts to quantify your genetic propensity to curly hair, a cleft chin, and other such frivolous characteristics.
While customers may buy their kits simply to find out what percent Native American they are, the growth of direct-to-consumer genomics has broader implications for medical research, criminal justice and family relationships.
This question asks the following:
Before July 1st 2019, will Ancestry.com announce that they have 'stored' or 'tested' (or similar language) the genetic information of at least 20 million individuals?
Details:
Credible sources, materials on the official Ancestry.com website, and press releases or documentation unambiguously attributed to Ancestry.com or its official subsidiaries can be used for positive resolution
AncestryDNA refers often to the number of people 'tested' or to 'kits sold'; I assume that this is partly because the matter of whether they 'have' or 'own' the data is a fairly complicated legal matter. It seems that AncestryDNA owns 'licenses' over the genetic data of the individuals who sign up to the service, and the individuals themselves maintain ownership over their own genetic data. For this reason, it's hard to predict precisely what language they will use to describe the number of people 'in their database'. Fortunately, the precise verb they use in relation to the number of individuals will probably not lead to contestable ambiguity in the question resolution. But with regards to the matter of 'kits sold', see below:
The statement used to confirm positive resolution should ideally be focused on the number of people; if the statement mentions instead the number of kits sold, and it is not unambiguously clear that the same number of people have been 'tested' by AncestryDNA or that their genetic information is 'in the database', or similar language indicating that they have actually generated the digitised genetic data of this number of people, then the statement cannot be used for positive resolution, unless the community consensus decides otherwise, for instance due to the statement's context
In the event that Ancestry.com in some way 'acquires' another genetic database, and the new number of individuals 'in AncestryDNA's database' goes above 20 million, the question resolves positive only if these new individuals are somehow integrated into the system, for instance such that these new individuals are searchable in AncestryDNA's genetic relative–finding service
If Ancestry.com starts offering a service which allows people to upload onto their site genetic data generated from other sources, in the manner of other services like MyHeritage, any statement used to support positive resolution must convey unambiguously that the number mentioned is the number of individuals whose digitised genetic data was generated by, from DNA samples gathered by, Ancestry.com, its subsidiaries, or registered contractors | true | 2019-03-31 | Will AncestryDNA have 20 million people in their database before July 1st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-05-18 | 2018-12-02 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-06", 0.6], ["2018-12-06", 0.68], ["2018-12-06", 0.73], ["2018-12-07", 0.692], ["2018-12-07", 0.692], ["2018-12-08", 0.696], ["2018-12-08", 0.691], ["2018-12-08", 0.686], ["2018-12-09", 0.672], ["2018-12-09", 0.674], ["2018-12-09", 0.644], ["2018-12-10", 0.638], ["2018-12-10", 0.638], ["2018-12-12", 0.629], ["2018-12-17", 0.624], ["2018-12-20", 0.626], ["2018-12-20", 0.629], ["2018-12-29", 0.629], ["2018-12-30", 0.63], ["2019-01-02", 0.627], ["2019-01-06", 0.632], ["2019-01-07", 0.63], ["2019-01-12", 0.642], ["2019-01-21", 0.642], ["2019-01-25", 0.659], ["2019-01-31", 0.659], ["2019-02-03", 0.671], ["2019-02-03", 0.671], ["2019-02-04", 0.671], ["2019-02-04", 0.673], ["2019-02-05", 0.668], ["2019-02-06", 0.67], ["2019-02-06", 0.67], ["2019-02-06", 0.672], ["2019-02-06", 0.672], ["2019-02-07", 0.683], ["2019-02-07", 0.683], ["2019-02-08", 0.684], ["2019-02-09", 0.684], ["2019-02-10", 0.686], ["2019-02-11", 0.686], ["2019-02-12", 0.688], ["2019-02-15", 0.688], ["2019-02-22", 0.688], ["2019-02-22", 0.687], ["2019-02-26", 0.687], ["2019-02-26", 0.686], ["2019-02-28", 0.686], ["2019-03-09", 0.686], ["2019-03-10", 0.684], ["2019-03-12", 0.684], ["2019-03-15", 0.684], ["2019-03-16", 0.685], ["2019-03-19", 0.683], ["2019-03-21", 0.683], ["2019-03-21", 0.679], ["2019-03-23", 0.684], ["2019-03-25", 0.682], ["2019-04-05", 0.682], ["2019-04-05", 0.684], ["2019-04-05", 0.685], ["2019-04-05", 0.685], ["2019-04-07", 0.683], ["2019-04-07", 0.683], ["2019-04-07", 0.682], ["2019-04-08", 0.683], ["2019-04-08", 0.683], ["2019-04-09", 0.683], ["2019-04-09", 0.687], ["2019-04-09", 0.687], ["2019-04-11", 0.689], ["2019-04-11", 0.686], ["2019-04-12", 0.674], ["2019-04-13", 0.674], ["2019-04-13", 0.674], ["2019-04-13", 0.671], ["2019-04-13", 0.673], ["2019-04-14", 0.673], ["2019-04-14", 0.672], ["2019-04-14", 0.673], ["2019-04-15", 0.674], ["2019-04-15", 0.674], ["2019-04-16", 0.674], ["2019-04-16", 0.674], ["2019-04-23", 0.672], ["2019-04-24", 0.671], ["2019-04-26", 0.671], ["2019-04-29", 0.671], ["2019-05-03", 0.67], ["2019-05-03", 0.669], ["2019-05-03", 0.668], ["2019-05-04", 0.67], ["2019-05-09", 0.671], ["2019-05-11", 0.671], ["2019-05-13", 0.672], ["2019-05-16", 0.672], ["2019-05-16", 0.68], ["2019-05-16", 0.683], ["2019-05-17", 0.683], ["2019-05-17", 0.683], ["2019-05-17", 0.685]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1611/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Arts & Recreation | The Eurovision Song Contest is held each year to bring the nations of Europe together, in a spirit of comradely rivalry, celebrating the relative harmony of these past seventy years, smiling to each other and towards the future, and to showcase some of the most insane performances ever devised by human minds.
The definition of the "Euro" prefix has become increasingly dubious. The last contest's winners, and the location of the event this year, is Israel, and the competition has been graced for the past four contests by none other than... Australia.
It isn't all silly fun and games, though: the contest is rife with controversies about national prejudices and vote-rigging attempts, and it was even used as a signal to start the 1974 Carnation Revolution that overthrew the Portuguese fascist regime.
This question asks the following:
Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is at the time a member of the European Union?
This question will close after the second semi-final on May 16th 2019, but before the final on May 18th 2019. | true | 2019-05-17 | Will the 2019 Eurovision Song Contest be won by an EU member? | metaculus | 1 |
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The 25% in tariffs were delayed on the 1st of December 2018 after the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi where a temporary "truce" was declared.
As BBC wrote: "For this it has gained a 90-day reprieve, during which time both sides have pledged to ramp up talks."
The following Monday the markets rallied on the good news.
If the US still plans to increase tariffs (on any goods) during or after the truce period ending Thursday 24 February 2019 then this question resolves yes, otherwise no.
If the truce is extended, it will resolve negative.
We will only consider announcements made by US officials for resolution. | true | 2019-02-24 | Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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On the plus side, it's still the 3rd most visited site globally, and its founder Mark Zuckerberg spent some of this year as the 3rd richest person on the planet. On the other hand, it announced its first-ever decrease in monthly active users, which caused its stock to plummet by nearly 25% in a single day; scandals about its political influence in the UK and the US still smoulder; and the aforementioned plunge was chased by over 4 months of steady ebbing in its share price that continues to the present day.
Will Facebook's fortunes further founder? Or will the future find fairer fates?
This question asks the following:
Will the closing price of Facebook's shares on March 4th 2019 be lower than the closing price on December 3rd 2018?
The question resolution will be decided according to the "close" column on Yahoo's tracker for Facebook shares, which gives the close price on December 3rd 2018 as 141.09 USD. The question will close roughly halfway between the start and resolve dates. | true | 2019-01-18 | Will Facebook's share price be lower in 3 months than it is today? | metaculus | 0 |
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But never mind – Kinky S Dolls can still operate from its premises in Toronto, which it describes as the "first SexDoll 'rent before you buy' Spa in North America". (I'm not going to link to their site, but it's not hard to find.)
According to one list, there are 11 sex doll brothels operating around the world. This question asks the following:
Before August 1st 2019, will there exist an establishment in the United States, legal and open to the public, that advertises and offers a service of renting out sex dolls for use on its premises?
The establishment must be reasonably believed to have been able to sell this service to at least one customer.
(It might be Kinky S Dolls after all – its founder mentioned that he was talking to lawyers about suing the city council over their decision.) | true | 2019-03-31 | Will a "sex doll brothel" open in the US before August 1st 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question shall resolve positively if before the 29th of March 2019 another referendum is held in the United Kingdom in which the public are asked to choose to either remain in the European Union or to leave the European Union, regardless of any terms appended to those options (e.g. to leave the European Union with no deal, or with May's deal, or to remain in the Euopean Union on new terms, et cetera).
A referendum on merely accepting or rejecting any proposed deal with the European Union, without regard to either remaining or leaving, will not suffice; membership of the Union itself must be on the ballot. | true | 2019-01-15 | Will there be another 'in-out' referendum on Brexit before 29th March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-06 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-09", 0.725], ["2018-12-09", 0.725], ["2018-12-09", 0.787], ["2018-12-09", 0.802], ["2018-12-09", 0.84], ["2018-12-09", 0.833], ["2018-12-09", 0.821], ["2018-12-09", 0.792], ["2018-12-09", 0.806], ["2018-12-09", 0.8], ["2018-12-09", 0.804], ["2018-12-09", 0.813], ["2018-12-09", 0.813], ["2018-12-09", 0.812], ["2018-12-09", 0.81], ["2018-12-09", 0.815], ["2018-12-09", 0.815], ["2018-12-09", 0.798], ["2018-12-09", 0.803], ["2018-12-10", 0.803], ["2018-12-10", 0.804], ["2018-12-10", 0.794], ["2018-12-10", 0.794], ["2018-12-10", 0.797], ["2018-12-10", 0.792], ["2018-12-10", 0.792], ["2018-12-10", 0.785], ["2018-12-10", 0.785], ["2018-12-10", 0.781], ["2018-12-10", 0.784], ["2018-12-10", 0.762], ["2018-12-10", 0.784], ["2018-12-10", 0.784], ["2018-12-10", 0.781], ["2018-12-10", 0.783], ["2018-12-10", 0.783], ["2018-12-10", 0.778], ["2018-12-10", 0.779], ["2018-12-11", 0.777], ["2018-12-11", 0.76], ["2018-12-11", 0.76], ["2018-12-11", 0.753], ["2018-12-11", 0.755], ["2018-12-11", 0.76], ["2018-12-11", 0.761], ["2018-12-11", 0.761], ["2018-12-11", 0.761], ["2018-12-12", 0.765], ["2018-12-12", 0.763], ["2018-12-12", 0.763], ["2018-12-12", 0.763], ["2018-12-13", 0.761], ["2018-12-15", 0.758], ["2018-12-16", 0.757], ["2018-12-17", 0.757], ["2018-12-18", 0.749], ["2018-12-18", 0.749], ["2018-12-18", 0.753], ["2018-12-20", 0.755], ["2018-12-21", 0.749], ["2018-12-22", 0.747], ["2018-12-23", 0.747], ["2018-12-27", 0.746], ["2018-12-29", 0.747], ["2018-12-29", 0.748], ["2018-12-29", 0.744], ["2018-12-29", 0.746], ["2018-12-30", 0.746], ["2018-12-30", 0.748], ["2018-12-30", 0.747], ["2018-12-30", 0.749], ["2018-12-30", 0.749], ["2018-12-30", 0.749], ["2018-12-30", 0.739], ["2018-12-31", 0.74], ["2018-12-31", 0.741], ["2018-12-31", 0.738]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1616/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Queen Elizabeth II, 92, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 66 years and 299 days. She is currently considered to be the sixth-longest reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.
This question resolves positively if Elizabeth II is still the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom on January 1 2020, at which time she will be 93 years, 8 months, 11 days old and have reigned for 67 years, 10 months, 27 days including the end date.
The question shall resolve negatively in the event that Elizabeth II is dead, has abdicated, has been deposed, or is declared missing before 00:00 on January 1 2020, if the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.
Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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In 2008, she failed to win the Democratic Party's nomination and subsequently endorsed then-Senator Barack Obama, who went on to win the Presidency. In 2016, she won the nomination of the Democratic Party and selected then-Senator (and former Governor of Virginia) Tim Kaine as her running mate in the Presidential Election. She won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College to Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Since her loss in 2016, Clinton has publicly denied, on multiple occasions, any plans to run for federal office in the future. However, in October 2018, Clinton admitted 'I'd like to be President' when pushed on the matter by a journalist.
Will Hillary Clinton run for the Presidency of the United States in 2020?
This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that Hillary Clinton, former First Lady of the United States and former Secretary of State, (or agents acting on her behalf and with her consent) has filed 'FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy' with the Federal Election Commission in relation to the 2020 United States Presidential election. | true | 2020-02-04 | Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-08 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-11", 0.35], ["2018-12-11", 0.417], ["2018-12-11", 0.325], ["2018-12-11", 0.325], ["2018-12-11", 0.333], ["2018-12-11", 0.333], ["2018-12-11", 0.306], ["2018-12-11", 0.306], ["2018-12-11", 0.29], ["2018-12-11", 0.303], ["2018-12-11", 0.307], ["2018-12-11", 0.307], ["2018-12-12", 0.311], ["2018-12-12", 0.307], ["2018-12-12", 0.292], ["2018-12-12", 0.292], ["2018-12-13", 0.276], ["2018-12-13", 0.266], ["2018-12-13", 0.266], ["2018-12-13", 0.257], ["2018-12-13", 0.257], ["2018-12-13", 0.255], ["2018-12-14", 0.255], ["2018-12-14", 0.266], ["2018-12-14", 0.271], ["2018-12-14", 0.281], ["2018-12-14", 0.283], ["2018-12-14", 0.274], ["2018-12-15", 0.271], ["2018-12-15", 0.271], ["2018-12-15", 0.267], ["2018-12-15", 0.265], ["2018-12-16", 0.265], ["2018-12-16", 0.27], ["2018-12-17", 0.277], ["2018-12-17", 0.28], ["2018-12-18", 0.28], ["2018-12-19", 0.276], ["2018-12-20", 0.28], ["2018-12-20", 0.287], ["2018-12-20", 0.287], ["2018-12-20", 0.282], ["2018-12-20", 0.281], ["2018-12-20", 0.277], ["2018-12-21", 0.277], ["2018-12-21", 0.278], ["2018-12-21", 0.279], ["2018-12-21", 0.28], ["2018-12-22", 0.281], ["2018-12-22", 0.281], ["2018-12-24", 0.281], ["2018-12-24", 0.281], ["2018-12-25", 0.282], ["2018-12-27", 0.283], ["2018-12-27", 0.285], ["2018-12-28", 0.285], ["2018-12-28", 0.285], ["2018-12-29", 0.283], ["2018-12-30", 0.283], ["2018-12-30", 0.28], ["2018-12-30", 0.278], ["2018-12-30", 0.278], ["2018-12-30", 0.281], ["2018-12-30", 0.281], ["2018-12-30", 0.282]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1623/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | Nuclear weapons have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 Trinity test.
The official tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found here.
As of December 2018, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt. It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemndations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.
There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield above 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the above conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2019 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2019. Tests or detonations occuring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. | true | 2018-12-31 | Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2023-03-01 | 2018-12-09 | ["https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country-year&u=638132815600601857", "https://www.heritage.org/index/country/cuba", "https://www.heritage.org/index/country/cuba"] | binary | [["2018-12-12", 0.8], ["2018-12-21", 0.812], ["2018-12-26", 0.814], ["2019-01-01", 0.816], ["2019-01-07", 0.812], ["2019-01-15", 0.814], ["2019-01-25", 0.815], ["2019-02-11", 0.815], ["2019-02-17", 0.808], ["2019-03-03", 0.805], ["2019-03-03", 0.805], ["2019-05-09", 0.808], ["2019-05-15", 0.811], ["2019-05-26", 0.814], ["2019-06-23", 0.814], ["2019-07-09", 0.815], ["2019-07-15", 0.812], ["2019-07-21", 0.815], ["2019-07-27", 0.816], ["2019-08-14", 0.816], ["2019-11-12", 0.818], ["2019-11-23", 0.818], ["2019-11-29", 0.817], ["2019-12-03", 0.817], ["2019-12-14", 0.821], ["2019-12-22", 0.809], ["2019-12-26", 0.812], ["2020-01-02", 0.813], ["2020-01-13", 0.813], ["2020-01-19", 0.815], ["2020-02-03", 0.816], ["2020-02-13", 0.815], ["2020-02-20", 0.814], ["2020-02-27", 0.814], ["2020-03-06", 0.814], ["2020-03-16", 0.815], ["2020-03-23", 0.814], ["2020-03-31", 0.815], ["2020-04-05", 0.815], ["2020-04-12", 0.815], ["2020-04-20", 0.815], ["2020-04-28", 0.817], ["2020-05-20", 0.818], ["2020-06-05", 0.818], ["2020-06-19", 0.819], ["2020-07-02", 0.82], ["2020-07-03", 0.82], ["2020-07-27", 0.821], ["2020-08-11", 0.823], ["2020-08-20", 0.823], ["2020-09-11", 0.824], ["2020-09-18", 0.832], ["2020-10-09", 0.833], ["2020-10-09", 0.834], ["2020-10-20", 0.834], ["2020-10-26", 0.835], ["2020-11-18", 0.835], ["2020-11-26", 0.837], ["2020-12-06", 0.837], ["2020-12-07", 0.837], ["2021-01-03", 0.837], ["2021-01-04", 0.837], ["2021-01-20", 0.837], ["2021-01-31", 0.836], ["2021-02-02", 0.836], ["2021-02-12", 0.837], ["2021-02-18", 0.837], ["2021-02-23", 0.837], ["2021-03-07", 0.837], ["2021-03-17", 0.837], ["2021-04-07", 0.837], ["2021-04-13", 0.838], ["2021-04-17", 0.843], ["2021-04-25", 0.844], ["2021-05-01", 0.844], ["2021-05-23", 0.844], ["2021-05-31", 0.845], ["2021-06-24", 0.845], ["2021-06-29", 0.845], ["2021-07-06", 0.846], ["2021-07-11", 0.846], ["2021-07-17", 0.824], ["2021-07-23", 0.824], ["2021-07-28", 0.828], ["2021-08-03", 0.833], ["2021-08-09", 0.837], ["2021-08-15", 0.842], ["2021-08-22", 0.842], ["2021-08-31", 0.842], ["2021-09-09", 0.842], ["2021-09-12", 0.844], ["2021-09-23", 0.844], ["2021-09-30", 0.844], ["2021-10-07", 0.844], ["2021-10-13", 0.845], ["2021-10-19", 0.847], ["2021-10-26", 0.848], ["2021-11-04", 0.849], ["2021-11-11", 0.85], ["2021-11-21", 0.852], ["2021-11-24", 0.865]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1631/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Since 1965, Cuba has been governed by the Communist Party of Cuba. Cuba is one of few remaining Marxist–Leninist socialist states, where the role of the vanguard Communist Party is enshrined in the Constitution.
As of December 09 2018, only the following countries are one-party states in which the institutions of the ruling Communist Party and the state have become intertwined (and they are generally adherents of Marxism–Leninism in particular): People's Republic of China, Republic of Cuba, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Socialist Republic of Vietnam, and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Will Cuba still be a communist state as measured by having a below 50 score on the Index of Economic Freedom?
This question resolves positive if the 2023 Index of Economic Freedom assigns an index value below 50, indicating "repressed economic activity". Currently, Cuba has an index value of 31.9, meaning a negative resolution requires an 18.1 increase in the index value. This resolves ambiguous if the Heritage Foundation, or the Wall Street Journal does not publish the Index of Economic Freedom values for 2023.
Edit (14/12/18) the resolution criteria now depends on the Index of Economic Freedom assigned to Cuba in 2023. | true | 2021-11-25 | Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
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Current and historical rates are available from XE Currency Data. | true | 2019-01-01 | British Pound / US Dollar parity before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-07-23 | 2018-12-11 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-15", 0.05], ["2018-12-15", 0.146], ["2018-12-17", 0.151], ["2018-12-18", 0.144], ["2018-12-19", 0.14], ["2018-12-21", 0.144], ["2018-12-22", 0.141], ["2018-12-23", 0.141], ["2018-12-26", 0.146], ["2018-12-27", 0.144], ["2018-12-28", 0.142], ["2018-12-29", 0.145], ["2018-12-31", 0.146], ["2018-12-31", 0.146], ["2019-01-06", 0.144], ["2019-01-07", 0.146], ["2019-01-08", 0.148], ["2019-01-12", 0.148], ["2019-01-13", 0.145], ["2019-01-15", 0.142], ["2019-01-16", 0.141], ["2019-01-18", 0.14], ["2019-01-21", 0.14], ["2019-01-25", 0.156], ["2019-01-29", 0.156], ["2019-02-01", 0.154], ["2019-02-01", 0.151], ["2019-02-03", 0.151], ["2019-02-10", 0.146], ["2019-02-10", 0.146], ["2019-02-12", 0.146], ["2019-02-14", 0.147], ["2019-02-14", 0.147], ["2019-02-15", 0.15], ["2019-02-17", 0.15], ["2019-02-18", 0.15], ["2019-02-22", 0.148], ["2019-02-25", 0.148], ["2019-02-28", 0.148], ["2019-03-02", 0.148], ["2019-03-03", 0.148], ["2019-03-12", 0.148], ["2019-03-21", 0.15], ["2019-03-22", 0.147], ["2019-03-23", 0.149], ["2019-03-27", 0.151], ["2019-03-28", 0.159], ["2019-03-29", 0.159], ["2019-03-31", 0.165], ["2019-04-01", 0.164], ["2019-04-02", 0.163], ["2019-04-03", 0.163], ["2019-04-05", 0.164], ["2019-04-07", 0.164], ["2019-04-09", 0.164], ["2019-04-10", 0.166], ["2019-04-11", 0.167], ["2019-04-13", 0.166], ["2019-04-16", 0.166], ["2019-04-17", 0.171], ["2019-04-19", 0.171], ["2019-04-22", 0.17], ["2019-04-25", 0.17], ["2019-04-28", 0.17], ["2019-05-03", 0.171], ["2019-05-10", 0.171], ["2019-05-13", 0.17], ["2019-05-16", 0.171], ["2019-05-17", 0.184], ["2019-05-19", 0.208], ["2019-05-20", 0.217], ["2019-05-20", 0.216], ["2019-05-21", 0.216], ["2019-05-23", 0.225], ["2019-05-24", 0.251], ["2019-05-26", 0.293], ["2019-05-26", 0.291], ["2019-05-28", 0.297], ["2019-05-28", 0.295], ["2019-05-29", 0.285], ["2019-05-30", 0.291], ["2019-05-31", 0.29], ["2019-06-01", 0.292], ["2019-06-02", 0.298], ["2019-06-03", 0.307], ["2019-06-04", 0.323], ["2019-06-06", 0.331], ["2019-06-06", 0.338], ["2019-06-07", 0.343], ["2019-06-08", 0.35], ["2019-06-09", 0.355], ["2019-06-10", 0.361], ["2019-06-12", 0.362], ["2019-06-13", 0.373], ["2019-06-14", 0.414], ["2019-06-16", 0.423], ["2019-06-17", 0.451], ["2019-06-19", 0.462], ["2019-06-20", 0.484], ["2019-06-22", 0.49], ["2019-06-23", 0.561]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1641/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Media reports in the UK indicate that Prime Minister Theresa May is to face a Conservative and Unionist Party leadership contest.
This question asks: Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 23:00 London time on 29 March 2020, 1 year after Brexit is currently due to be implemented? | true | 2019-06-23 | Will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 30 March 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2020-05-08 | 2018-12-12 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-16", 0.3], ["2018-12-17", 0.272], ["2018-12-18", 0.241], ["2018-12-19", 0.237], ["2018-12-21", 0.258], ["2018-12-22", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.255], ["2019-01-04", 0.255], ["2019-01-15", 0.272], ["2019-01-18", 0.274], ["2019-01-18", 0.267], ["2019-01-21", 0.28], ["2019-02-14", 0.278], ["2019-02-17", 0.278], ["2019-04-19", 0.272], ["2019-04-29", 0.266], ["2019-05-08", 0.259], ["2019-05-26", 0.266], ["2019-05-28", 0.249], ["2019-06-06", 0.249], ["2019-06-08", 0.242], ["2019-06-09", 0.242], ["2019-06-19", 0.246], ["2019-06-28", 0.246], ["2019-06-28", 0.243], ["2019-07-01", 0.24], ["2019-07-14", 0.24], ["2019-07-14", 0.238], ["2019-07-28", 0.236], ["2019-07-29", 0.234], ["2019-08-16", 0.231], ["2019-08-28", 0.233], ["2019-09-17", 0.233], ["2019-09-22", 0.232], ["2019-09-23", 0.233], ["2019-10-05", 0.231], ["2019-11-23", 0.23], ["2019-12-06", 0.227], ["2019-12-14", 0.227], ["2019-12-30", 0.223], ["2020-01-13", 0.22], ["2020-02-05", 0.216], ["2020-02-06", 0.185], ["2020-02-07", 0.194], ["2020-02-11", 0.191], ["2020-02-14", 0.19], ["2020-02-15", 0.188], ["2020-02-16", 0.186], ["2020-02-24", 0.186], ["2020-02-24", 0.186], ["2020-02-26", 0.189], ["2020-02-29", 0.189], ["2020-03-09", 0.19], ["2020-03-11", 0.188], ["2020-03-15", 0.187], ["2020-03-16", 0.186], ["2020-03-17", 0.187], ["2020-03-18", 0.209], ["2020-03-20", 0.23], ["2020-03-20", 0.23], ["2020-03-21", 0.286], ["2020-03-22", 0.323], ["2020-03-23", 0.34], ["2020-03-24", 0.381], ["2020-03-25", 0.403], ["2020-03-26", 0.495], ["2020-03-27", 0.52], ["2020-03-28", 0.528], ["2020-03-29", 0.536], ["2020-03-30", 0.541], ["2020-03-30", 0.552], ["2020-03-31", 0.562], ["2020-04-02", 0.563], ["2020-04-02", 0.576], ["2020-04-03", 0.594], ["2020-04-04", 0.598], ["2020-04-05", 0.605], ["2020-04-09", 0.617], ["2020-04-10", 0.618], ["2020-04-11", 0.619], ["2020-04-14", 0.619], ["2020-04-16", 0.623], ["2020-04-16", 0.641], ["2020-04-17", 0.657], ["2020-04-19", 0.665], ["2020-04-21", 0.665], ["2020-04-22", 0.683], ["2020-04-23", 0.686], ["2020-04-24", 0.69], ["2020-04-25", 0.693], ["2020-04-26", 0.699], ["2020-04-27", 0.699], ["2020-04-29", 0.699], ["2020-04-29", 0.703], ["2020-05-01", 0.703], ["2020-05-02", 0.712], ["2020-05-03", 0.726], ["2020-05-06", 0.728], ["2020-05-08", 0.729], ["2020-05-08", 0.729]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1643/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | The unemployment rate in the United States averaged 5.77% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 10.80% in November of 1982 and a record low of 2.50% in May of 1953. According to the most recent data available (for November 2018) at the time of question writing, the national unemployment rate in the United States is 3.7%. You can view historical data here.
At any point before January 1 2023, will the US unemployment rate meet or exceed 10%?
For a positive resolution, data confirming 10% or greater unemployment must be sourced from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, or, if that body no longer exists, credible media reports in the financial press. | true | 2022-01-01 | Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2023? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-31 | 2018-12-13 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-16", 0.15], ["2018-12-17", 0.08], ["2018-12-17", 0.22], ["2018-12-17", 0.147], ["2018-12-17", 0.118], ["2018-12-17", 0.144], ["2018-12-17", 0.175], ["2018-12-17", 0.175], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.188], ["2018-12-17", 0.212], ["2018-12-17", 0.211], ["2018-12-17", 0.215], ["2018-12-17", 0.218], ["2018-12-17", 0.218], ["2018-12-18", 0.231], ["2018-12-18", 0.26], ["2018-12-18", 0.256], ["2018-12-18", 0.259], ["2018-12-18", 0.259], ["2018-12-18", 0.259], ["2018-12-18", 0.256], ["2018-12-18", 0.258], ["2018-12-18", 0.258], ["2018-12-20", 0.257], ["2018-12-21", 0.257], ["2018-12-22", 0.258], ["2018-12-22", 0.262], ["2018-12-25", 0.262], ["2018-12-25", 0.263], ["2018-12-26", 0.262], ["2018-12-29", 0.257], ["2018-12-29", 0.261], ["2018-12-31", 0.261], ["2019-01-01", 0.261], ["2019-01-01", 0.261], ["2019-01-01", 0.256], ["2019-01-02", 0.256], ["2019-01-02", 0.26], ["2019-01-02", 0.263], ["2019-01-02", 0.256], ["2019-01-02", 0.261], ["2019-01-02", 0.266], ["2019-01-02", 0.261], ["2019-01-02", 0.263], ["2019-01-02", 0.263], ["2019-01-02", 0.263], ["2019-01-02", 0.258], ["2019-01-02", 0.263], ["2019-01-02", 0.266], ["2019-01-03", 0.266], ["2019-01-03", 0.26], ["2019-01-03", 0.262], ["2019-01-03", 0.266], ["2019-01-03", 0.261], ["2019-01-03", 0.26], ["2019-01-03", 0.258], ["2019-01-03", 0.258], ["2019-01-03", 0.258], ["2019-01-03", 0.258], ["2019-01-03", 0.259], ["2019-01-03", 0.26], ["2019-01-03", 0.26], ["2019-01-03", 0.256], ["2019-01-03", 0.255], ["2019-01-03", 0.254], ["2019-01-04", 0.254], ["2019-01-04", 0.253], ["2019-01-04", 0.251], ["2019-01-05", 0.253], ["2019-01-05", 0.253], ["2019-01-05", 0.253], ["2019-01-06", 0.25], ["2019-01-07", 0.249], ["2019-01-07", 0.245], ["2019-01-08", 0.245], ["2019-01-08", 0.244], ["2019-01-08", 0.245], ["2019-01-09", 0.245], ["2019-01-09", 0.245], ["2019-01-10", 0.246], ["2019-01-11", 0.245], ["2019-01-12", 0.259], ["2019-01-12", 0.259], ["2019-01-13", 0.259], ["2019-01-13", 0.259], ["2019-01-13", 0.262], ["2019-01-13", 0.26], ["2019-01-13", 0.259], ["2019-01-13", 0.261], ["2019-01-13", 0.262], ["2019-01-14", 0.262], ["2019-01-14", 0.262]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1649/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Jeremy Corbyn is currently the Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition in the United Kingdom, and has occupied these offices since 2015.
The current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is Theresa May, Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, who has occupied these offices since 2016.
Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011, no general election can be held in the United Kingdom before 2022 unless a supermajority of two thirds of members of the House of Commons vote for one, or unless the government of the day falls in the event of a vote of no confidence.
However, note that it is legally impossible in the United Kingdom for Parliament to bind itself or any future Parliament, and there is nothing in law preventing Parliament from amending or abolishing the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 by simple majority vote.
You can view opinion polling for the next UK General Election here, and view historical polling for the last 25 years here.
This question asks: Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1 2020?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that Jeremy Corbyn is the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at any point before January 1 2020. | true | 2019-01-15 | Will Jeremy Corbyn become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Funding expires for a number of key government agencies on December 21 at midnight, and while there is still time to avert a shutdown, so far the two sides have been unable to reach an agreement to keep the government open.
Congress left town today for a long weekend with no plan to avoid a government shutdown in 8 days. Democrats flatly reject Trump’s demand for $5b wall money, and it can’t pass the Senate. GOP leaders are waiting on Trump for a signal on what to do. There are no negotiations underway.
Will the Federal Government of the United States be partially shut down for any period before 00:01 Eastern Time on 22 December 2018?
This resolves positive if any credible U.S. news source confirms the shutting down of the affected activities involving the furlough of non-essential personnel and curtailment of agency activities and services. | true | 2018-12-20 | Will the Federal Government of the United States partially shut down (temporarily) by 22 December 2018? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-06-06 | 2018-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2019-05-12", 0.42], ["2019-05-12", 0.42], ["2019-05-12", 0.303], ["2019-05-12", 0.303], ["2019-05-12", 0.293], ["2019-05-12", 0.356], ["2019-05-12", 0.356], ["2019-05-12", 0.347], ["2019-05-13", 0.344], ["2019-05-13", 0.356], ["2019-05-13", 0.348], ["2019-05-14", 0.329], ["2019-05-14", 0.329], ["2019-05-14", 0.336], ["2019-05-16", 0.321], ["2019-05-16", 0.327], ["2019-05-16", 0.327], ["2019-05-18", 0.325], ["2019-05-18", 0.325], ["2019-05-19", 0.315], ["2019-05-21", 0.345], ["2019-05-21", 0.352], ["2019-05-21", 0.346], ["2019-05-21", 0.355], ["2019-05-21", 0.344], ["2019-05-22", 0.328], ["2019-05-22", 0.31], ["2019-05-22", 0.31], ["2019-05-22", 0.296], ["2019-05-22", 0.276], ["2019-05-22", 0.274], ["2019-05-22", 0.274], ["2019-05-22", 0.264], ["2019-05-22", 0.252], ["2019-05-22", 0.242], ["2019-05-22", 0.233], ["2019-05-22", 0.233], ["2019-05-23", 0.233], ["2019-05-24", 0.214], ["2019-05-29", 0.214], ["2019-05-29", 0.212], ["2019-05-29", 0.212], ["2019-05-29", 0.212], ["2019-05-30", 0.212], ["2019-05-30", 0.202], ["2019-05-30", 0.196], ["2019-05-31", 0.201], ["2019-05-31", 0.195], ["2019-06-03", 0.188], ["2019-06-03", 0.183], ["2019-06-05", 0.182], ["2019-06-06", 0.176], ["2019-06-06", 0.176], ["2019-06-06", 0.173]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1664/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | On 19 December 2018, Labour MP Fiona Onasanya was convicted of perverting the course of justice. Given the serious nature of this criminal offence, it is widely expected that she will either resign (in the usual manner; by taking an office of profit under the Crown), be recalled by her constituents, or be removed from office under the Representation of the People Act 1981, which states that any MP will be disqualified from sitting as an MP if they are “detained anywhere in the British Islands or the Republic of Ireland ... for more than a year for any offence”.
Given that Ms Onasanya's imminent departure from the House of Commons is quite likely, it is probable that a by-election will be held in early 2019 to elect a new Member for Peterborough.
This question asks: Will the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate win the next Parliamentary election held for the Peterborough constituency, regardless of when it is held?
This question closes retroactively one day before polls open. | true | 2019-07-11 | Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate? | metaculus | 0 |
2020-12-31 | 2018-12-19 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-22", 0.5], ["2018-12-23", 0.369], ["2018-12-24", 0.48], ["2018-12-24", 0.487], ["2018-12-26", 0.481], ["2018-12-27", 0.489], ["2018-12-27", 0.459], ["2018-12-29", 0.454], ["2018-12-29", 0.453], ["2018-12-30", 0.454], ["2018-12-30", 0.466], ["2018-12-31", 0.473], ["2018-12-31", 0.476], ["2019-01-01", 0.462], ["2019-01-02", 0.462], ["2019-01-03", 0.475], ["2019-01-03", 0.47], ["2019-01-04", 0.48], ["2019-01-04", 0.476], ["2019-01-05", 0.476], ["2019-01-06", 0.478], ["2019-01-08", 0.472], ["2019-01-08", 0.472], ["2019-01-10", 0.469], ["2019-01-17", 0.469], ["2019-01-22", 0.473], ["2019-01-25", 0.479], ["2019-02-03", 0.479], ["2019-02-09", 0.47], ["2019-02-12", 0.47], ["2019-02-14", 0.47], ["2019-03-27", 0.47], ["2019-03-30", 0.471], ["2019-04-19", 0.475], ["2019-04-23", 0.472], ["2019-05-05", 0.473], ["2019-06-08", 0.468], ["2019-06-09", 0.468], ["2019-06-24", 0.468], ["2019-07-04", 0.468], ["2019-07-07", 0.467], ["2019-07-08", 0.467], ["2019-07-13", 0.467], ["2019-07-28", 0.466], ["2019-07-30", 0.459], ["2019-08-01", 0.46], ["2019-08-07", 0.46], ["2019-08-07", 0.454], ["2019-08-08", 0.445], ["2019-08-08", 0.441], ["2019-08-09", 0.441], ["2019-08-10", 0.435], ["2019-08-12", 0.434], ["2019-08-13", 0.431], ["2019-08-13", 0.428], ["2019-08-15", 0.427], ["2019-08-17", 0.427], ["2019-08-18", 0.424], ["2019-08-19", 0.42], ["2019-08-21", 0.418], ["2019-08-21", 0.418], ["2019-08-27", 0.413], ["2019-08-29", 0.412], ["2019-09-12", 0.411], ["2019-09-20", 0.412], ["2019-09-29", 0.411], ["2019-10-12", 0.41], ["2019-10-12", 0.408], ["2019-10-13", 0.405], ["2019-10-13", 0.404], ["2019-10-14", 0.403], ["2019-10-15", 0.4], ["2019-10-15", 0.396], ["2019-10-16", 0.389], ["2019-10-17", 0.387], ["2019-10-18", 0.389], ["2019-10-21", 0.389], ["2019-10-24", 0.387], ["2019-10-28", 0.392], ["2019-11-05", 0.39], ["2019-11-05", 0.39], ["2019-11-06", 0.391], ["2019-11-06", 0.394], ["2019-11-07", 0.394], ["2019-11-07", 0.394], ["2019-11-08", 0.394], ["2019-11-09", 0.393], ["2019-11-12", 0.393], ["2019-11-14", 0.394], ["2019-11-17", 0.394], ["2019-11-18", 0.401], ["2019-11-20", 0.401], ["2019-12-11", 0.406], ["2019-12-13", 0.407], ["2019-12-17", 0.406], ["2019-12-17", 0.407], ["2019-12-22", 0.407], ["2019-12-30", 0.407], ["2019-12-30", 0.409], ["2019-12-31", 0.399], ["2019-12-31", 0.391]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1665/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | SpaceX Founder and CEO Elon Musk believes that a fully and rapidly reusable rocket is the pivotal breakthrough needed to substantially reduce the cost of space access.
SpaceX has had some significant successes in pursuit of this goal, but as of December 2018 has not yet demonstrated that it is possible to launch a payload to orbit, land a complete rocket or rocket stage and re-fly that asset within 24 hours, which Musk in 2018 claimed is a key milestone for rapid reusability. According to Elon Musk:
Our goal, just to give you a sense of how reusable we think the design can be, we intend to demonstrate two orbital launches of the same Block 5 vehicle within 24 hours, no later than next year.
Toward the end of next year we'll see the first Block 5 seeing [its] 10th flight. And like I said, next year is when we intend to demonstrate re-flight of the same primary rocket booster within — basically, same day re-flight of the same rocket. I think that's really a key milestone.
This question asks: before 1 January 2021, will any rocket stage or complete rocket be used to successfully complete its role in delivering any payload to orbit or an Earth-escape trajectory, land successfully on Earth (whether on land or at sea) and then re-flown on another orbital or Earth-escape mission, with the second liftoff taking place within 24 hours of liftoff of the first mission, and with the rocket or rocket stage landing successfully a second time?
Note that the vehicle in question need not be owned or operated by SpaceX - any qualifying instance of these events will result in a positive resolution. | true | 2020-01-01 | Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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As of 30 November 2017, North Korea has carried out 117 tests of strategic missiles since its first such test in 1984. 15 were carried out under the rule of Kim Il-sung and 16 under Kim Jong-il. Under Kim Jong-un, more than 80 tests have been undertaken.
2017 saw tensions reach perhaps their highest level ever after dozens of missiles were tested over a period of several months, including multiple missiles launched over Japanese territory, and the launch of ICBMs believed to be capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the United States mainland.
United States President Donald Trump, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, then warned that the United States would "totally destroy North Korea" if forced to do so.
As of December 20 2018, the most recent North Korean ballistic missile launch took place on November 28, 2017 when North Korea launched an ICBM from the vicinity of Pyongsong at 1:30pm EST/3:00am Pyongyang time. The rocket traveled for 50 minutes and reached 2800 miles (4,500 km) in height, both of which were new milestones.
In 2018,North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un met with United States President Donald Trump and signed an agreement to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula.
However, on 20 December 2018, North Korea announced "it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States removes its nuclear threat first," raising further doubts as to whether Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un will ever relinquish an arsenal he may see as his greatest guarantee of survival, and raises the spectre of a return to sabre rattling.
This question asks: Will North Korea launch, for any reason, an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019?
This question will resolve as positive when a guided missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government or United Nations or by confirmation of any any permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.)
This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. | true | 2019-03-01 | Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-01-24 | 2018-12-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-24", 0.4], ["2018-12-24", 0.517], ["2018-12-24", 0.517], ["2018-12-24", 0.5], ["2018-12-24", 0.475], ["2018-12-24", 0.475], ["2018-12-24", 0.41], ["2018-12-24", 0.41], ["2018-12-24", 0.358], ["2018-12-24", 0.412], ["2018-12-24", 0.412], ["2018-12-24", 0.394], ["2018-12-24", 0.384], ["2018-12-24", 0.384], ["2018-12-24", 0.374], ["2018-12-24", 0.374], ["2018-12-24", 0.344], ["2018-12-24", 0.356], ["2018-12-24", 0.353], ["2018-12-24", 0.357], ["2018-12-24", 0.353], ["2018-12-24", 0.353], ["2018-12-24", 0.357], ["2018-12-24", 0.355], ["2018-12-24", 0.355], ["2018-12-24", 0.351], ["2018-12-24", 0.345], ["2018-12-24", 0.345], ["2018-12-25", 0.338], ["2018-12-25", 0.335], ["2018-12-25", 0.336], ["2018-12-25", 0.346], ["2018-12-25", 0.346], ["2018-12-25", 0.337], ["2018-12-25", 0.337], ["2018-12-25", 0.337], ["2018-12-26", 0.343], ["2018-12-26", 0.331], ["2018-12-26", 0.331], ["2018-12-26", 0.335], ["2018-12-26", 0.335], ["2018-12-26", 0.327], ["2018-12-26", 0.327], ["2018-12-27", 0.327], ["2018-12-27", 0.324], ["2018-12-28", 0.326], ["2018-12-29", 0.322], ["2018-12-29", 0.323], ["2018-12-30", 0.326], ["2018-12-30", 0.326], ["2018-12-30", 0.322], ["2018-12-30", 0.322], ["2018-12-30", 0.324], ["2018-12-31", 0.321], ["2018-12-31", 0.321], ["2018-12-31", 0.32], ["2018-12-31", 0.318]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1668/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Security & Defense | The Doomsday Clock is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained since 1947 by the members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board, the clock represents an analogy for the threat of global nuclear war. Since 2007, it has also reflected climate change and new developments in the life sciences and technology that could inflict irrevocable harm to humanity.
The clock represents the hypothetical global catastrophe as "midnight" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to a global catastrophe as a number of "minutes" to midnight.
Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has been set backward and forward 23 times since then, the smallest-ever number of minutes to midnight being two (in 1953 and 2018) and the largest seventeen (in 1991). You can view a graphical representation of these time changes here.
Since January 2018, the clock is set at two minutes to midnight, due to "the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change.”
This question asks: when the clock is next updated, will the time be any later than two minutes to midnight?
The clock need not advance by a full minute; any advance will suffice for a positive resolution. If the clock is left unchanged at two minutes to midnight, or if it is moved back, this question resolves negatively.
If the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock is to be discontinued before any relevant time changes (or decisions to leave it unchanged) are made, this question resolves ambiguously. | true | 2019-01-01 | Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated? | metaculus | 0 |
2022-07-11 | 2018-12-21 | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Ultraviolet_Optical_Infrared_Surveyor", "https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2022/nasa-s-webb-delivers-deepest-infrared-image-of-universe-yet"] | binary | [["2019-01-02", 0.95], ["2019-01-10", 0.888], ["2019-01-17", 0.889], ["2019-01-26", 0.885], ["2019-02-17", 0.885], ["2019-03-14", 0.886], ["2019-04-08", 0.886], ["2019-04-13", 0.883], ["2019-04-30", 0.883], ["2019-05-28", 0.883], ["2019-06-19", 0.883], ["2019-08-15", 0.883], ["2019-08-23", 0.884], ["2019-08-28", 0.885], ["2019-09-03", 0.887], ["2019-09-10", 0.891], ["2019-09-19", 0.892], ["2019-09-29", 0.892], ["2019-10-22", 0.893], ["2019-10-25", 0.89], ["2019-11-06", 0.889], ["2019-11-06", 0.89], ["2019-11-16", 0.887], ["2019-11-21", 0.887], ["2019-11-29", 0.886], ["2019-12-04", 0.886], ["2019-12-15", 0.886], ["2019-12-30", 0.878], ["2020-01-04", 0.878], ["2020-01-10", 0.879], ["2020-01-22", 0.879], ["2020-01-31", 0.88], ["2020-02-02", 0.881], ["2020-02-11", 0.883], ["2020-02-22", 0.882], ["2020-03-11", 0.881], ["2020-03-16", 0.883], ["2020-03-24", 0.881], ["2020-03-31", 0.881], ["2020-04-05", 0.881], ["2020-04-12", 0.881], ["2020-06-01", 0.881], ["2020-06-04", 0.878], ["2020-06-11", 0.878], ["2020-06-15", 0.878], ["2020-07-06", 0.878], ["2020-07-07", 0.879], ["2020-07-17", 0.878], ["2020-07-17", 0.878], ["2020-08-01", 0.876], ["2020-08-09", 0.876], ["2020-08-11", 0.876], ["2020-08-20", 0.876], ["2020-08-29", 0.877], ["2020-09-15", 0.876], ["2020-10-02", 0.878], ["2020-10-12", 0.878], ["2020-10-29", 0.878], ["2020-11-10", 0.878], ["2020-11-18", 0.881], ["2020-11-26", 0.882], ["2020-12-21", 0.882], ["2021-01-03", 0.883], ["2021-01-08", 0.882], ["2021-01-18", 0.881], ["2021-01-24", 0.879], ["2021-02-02", 0.875], ["2021-02-12", 0.874], ["2021-02-17", 0.874], ["2021-02-23", 0.874], ["2021-02-28", 0.872], ["2021-03-08", 0.872], ["2021-03-14", 0.873], ["2021-04-07", 0.873], ["2021-04-10", 0.873], ["2021-05-13", 0.873], ["2021-05-19", 0.873], ["2021-05-24", 0.873], ["2021-06-03", 0.873], ["2021-06-12", 0.87], ["2021-06-16", 0.871], ["2021-06-26", 0.871], ["2021-06-29", 0.872], ["2021-07-15", 0.872], ["2021-07-24", 0.872], ["2021-07-28", 0.869], ["2021-08-03", 0.87], ["2021-08-11", 0.872], ["2021-09-08", 0.872], ["2021-09-16", 0.871], ["2021-10-10", 0.871], ["2021-10-20", 0.871], ["2021-10-26", 0.871], ["2021-11-04", 0.872], ["2021-11-11", 0.872], ["2021-11-15", 0.871], ["2021-11-24", 0.871], ["2021-12-03", 0.873], ["2021-12-11", 0.876], ["2021-12-21", 0.877], ["2021-12-23", 0.874]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1669/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Science & Tech | The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST or "Webb") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021.
One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. (See also JWST YouTube channel for further information).
Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.
The deployment process is detailed in this video.
If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched before 2030, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?
The question resolves positively if after the ignition of the launch system designed to launch the JWST, the JWST is either fully functional or has defects, but it is still able to carry out important observations not possible by other means at the time of deployment, as announced by credible sources on cosmological matters, such as reputable journals or government space programmes. If launch fails, critically damages the JWST before it succeeds in transmitting cosmological data, or explodes during launch, the question resolves negative.
Important: In case JWST is not launched before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguous.
The question will resolve when either the telescope is announced fully functional, or a previously impossible observation has been cried out, or based on government agencies announcement from which it will follow that carrying out a previously impossible observation will be very unlikely.
The question will close the day before the launch day. Moderators may need to close it retroactively or keep it open for longer than currently set. | true | 2021-12-24 | If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-01-30 | 2018-12-21 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-24", 0.51], ["2018-12-25", 0.283], ["2018-12-25", 0.287], ["2018-12-25", 0.305], ["2018-12-25", 0.303], ["2018-12-25", 0.295], ["2018-12-26", 0.292], ["2018-12-26", 0.292], ["2018-12-26", 0.345], ["2018-12-27", 0.348], ["2018-12-27", 0.344], ["2018-12-27", 0.353], ["2018-12-27", 0.356], ["2018-12-27", 0.339], ["2018-12-28", 0.35], ["2018-12-28", 0.356], ["2018-12-28", 0.356], ["2018-12-28", 0.371], ["2018-12-29", 0.378], ["2018-12-29", 0.379], ["2018-12-29", 0.384], ["2018-12-30", 0.408], ["2018-12-30", 0.408], ["2018-12-30", 0.425], ["2018-12-31", 0.434], ["2018-12-31", 0.437], ["2018-12-31", 0.435], ["2019-01-01", 0.444], ["2019-01-01", 0.45], ["2019-01-01", 0.46], ["2019-01-02", 0.463], ["2019-01-02", 0.463], ["2019-01-02", 0.467], ["2019-01-02", 0.468], ["2019-01-02", 0.468], ["2019-01-03", 0.466], ["2019-01-03", 0.465], ["2019-01-03", 0.458], ["2019-01-04", 0.458], ["2019-01-04", 0.452], ["2019-01-04", 0.459], ["2019-01-04", 0.468], ["2019-01-05", 0.479], ["2019-01-05", 0.496], ["2019-01-05", 0.5], ["2019-01-05", 0.503], ["2019-01-05", 0.506], ["2019-01-06", 0.507], ["2019-01-06", 0.507], ["2019-01-07", 0.507], ["2019-01-07", 0.509], ["2019-01-07", 0.509], ["2019-01-08", 0.508], ["2019-01-08", 0.509], ["2019-01-08", 0.517], ["2019-01-09", 0.518], ["2019-01-09", 0.518], ["2019-01-09", 0.525], ["2019-01-09", 0.525], ["2019-01-10", 0.526], ["2019-01-12", 0.526], ["2019-01-12", 0.537], ["2019-01-13", 0.538], ["2019-01-16", 0.544], ["2019-01-16", 0.545], ["2019-01-16", 0.549], ["2019-01-17", 0.549], ["2019-01-17", 0.555], ["2019-01-18", 0.564], ["2019-01-18", 0.579], ["2019-01-18", 0.579], ["2019-01-18", 0.582], ["2019-01-19", 0.615], ["2019-01-19", 0.621], ["2019-01-19", 0.634], ["2019-01-19", 0.639], ["2019-01-19", 0.655], ["2019-01-19", 0.665], ["2019-01-20", 0.665], ["2019-01-20", 0.672], ["2019-01-20", 0.678], ["2019-01-21", 0.684], ["2019-01-21", 0.692], ["2019-01-21", 0.692], ["2019-01-22", 0.7], ["2019-01-22", 0.7], ["2019-01-23", 0.706], ["2019-01-25", 0.706], ["2019-01-25", 0.712], ["2019-01-26", 0.713], ["2019-01-26", 0.713], ["2019-01-26", 0.714], ["2019-01-27", 0.718], ["2019-01-28", 0.721], ["2019-01-29", 0.721], ["2019-01-29", 0.727], ["2019-01-29", 0.725], ["2019-01-30", 0.725], ["2019-01-30", 0.727], ["2019-01-30", 0.728], ["2019-01-30", 0.728]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1670/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Economics & Business | As of the close of trading on 21 December 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sat at 22,445.37.
The DJIA is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. The Industrial portion of the name is largely historical, as many of the modern 30 components have little or nothing to do with traditional heavy industry. Along with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite, it is one of the most influential and scrutinized US equity indices.
Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000?
Resolves positively if the DJIA ever reaches an intraday level above 25,000 before reaching an intraday level of 20,000; resolves negatively if the inverse is true; and resolves ambiguously if (before either condition is met) the DJIA is discontinued or altered to such an extent that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue this question. | true | 2019-02-01 | Will the DJIA hit 25,000 before it next touches 20,000? | metaculus | 1 |
2021-01-20 | 2018-12-22 | [] | binary | [["2018-12-25", 0.3], ["2018-12-25", 0.21], ["2018-12-25", 0.244], ["2018-12-25", 0.236], ["2018-12-25", 0.21], ["2018-12-25", 0.199], ["2018-12-25", 0.2], ["2018-12-25", 0.215], ["2018-12-26", 0.228], ["2018-12-26", 0.233], ["2018-12-26", 0.233], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2018-12-27", 0.224], ["2018-12-27", 0.222], ["2018-12-27", 0.208], ["2018-12-28", 0.208], ["2018-12-28", 0.238], ["2018-12-29", 0.25], ["2018-12-29", 0.256], ["2018-12-31", 0.261], ["2018-12-31", 0.261], ["2018-12-31", 0.264], ["2018-12-31", 0.262], ["2018-12-31", 0.267], ["2018-12-31", 0.271], ["2019-01-01", 0.275], ["2019-01-01", 0.273], ["2019-01-01", 0.273], ["2019-01-01", 0.275], ["2019-01-01", 0.271], ["2019-01-02", 0.269], ["2019-01-02", 0.276], ["2019-01-03", 0.282], ["2019-01-03", 0.279], ["2019-01-04", 0.28], ["2019-01-04", 0.281], ["2019-01-05", 0.281], ["2019-01-05", 0.279], ["2019-01-07", 0.278], ["2019-01-07", 0.276], ["2019-01-07", 0.276], ["2019-01-07", 0.276], ["2019-01-07", 0.274], ["2019-01-08", 0.266], ["2019-01-08", 0.266], ["2019-01-08", 0.262], ["2019-01-08", 0.262], ["2019-01-13", 0.262], ["2019-01-18", 0.259], ["2019-01-19", 0.257], ["2019-01-21", 0.271], ["2019-01-21", 0.272], ["2019-01-21", 0.284], ["2019-01-22", 0.283], ["2019-01-26", 0.281], ["2019-01-27", 0.279], ["2019-01-28", 0.288], ["2019-01-30", 0.285], ["2019-01-30", 0.281], ["2019-01-30", 0.281], ["2019-01-30", 0.28], ["2019-02-01", 0.278], ["2019-02-01", 0.275], ["2019-02-01", 0.271], ["2019-02-02", 0.271], ["2019-02-02", 0.271], ["2019-02-03", 0.271], ["2019-02-04", 0.271], ["2019-02-05", 0.266], ["2019-02-05", 0.266], ["2019-02-05", 0.264], ["2019-02-05", 0.263], ["2019-02-05", 0.262], ["2019-02-06", 0.261], ["2019-02-06", 0.261], ["2019-02-07", 0.258], ["2019-02-07", 0.257], ["2019-02-07", 0.254], ["2019-02-08", 0.251], ["2019-02-08", 0.25], ["2019-02-11", 0.247], ["2019-02-12", 0.245], ["2019-02-12", 0.244], ["2019-02-13", 0.243], ["2019-02-15", 0.245], ["2019-02-16", 0.245], ["2019-02-22", 0.243], ["2019-02-23", 0.242], ["2019-02-23", 0.241], ["2019-02-23", 0.241], ["2019-02-26", 0.239], ["2019-02-26", 0.238], ["2019-02-26", 0.238], ["2019-02-27", 0.237], ["2019-02-28", 0.222], ["2019-02-28", 0.22], ["2019-02-28", 0.216], ["2019-02-28", 0.216], ["2019-02-28", 0.216], ["2019-02-28", 0.216]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1671/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Federal Reserve System (also known as the Fed) is the central banking system of the United States of America. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics (particularly the panic of 1907) led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises. Over the years, events such as the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Great Recession during the 2000s have led to the expansion of the roles and responsibilities of the Federal Reserve System.
The Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is the head of the Federal Reserve. The chair is chosen by the President of the United States from among the members of the Board of Governors; and serves for four-year-terms after appointment. A chair may be appointed for several consecutive terms. William Martin was the longest serving chair, holding the position from 1951 to 1970.
As stipulated by the Banking Act of 1935, the President of the United States appoints the seven members of the Board of Governors; they must then be confirmed by the Senate and serve fourteen year terms.
The nominees for chair and vice-chair may be chosen by the President from among the sitting Governors for four-year terms; these appointments are also subject to Senate confirmation. The Senate Committee responsible for vetting a Federal Reserve Chair nominee is the Senate Committee on Banking.
Jerome Hayden "Jay" Powell is the 16th and current Chair of the Federal Reserve, serving in that office since February 2018. He was nominated to the Fed Chair position by President Donald Trump, and confirmed by the United States Senate.
Since Powell took the position of Fed Chair, the performance of major US equity indicies has been disappointing. President Trump has indicated that he is unhappy with the Fed's decision to raise interest rates several times this year. This has raised questions over whether Trump will try to replace Powell with a more accomodative Fed Chair.
According to Bloomberg, "any attempt by Trump to push out Powell would have potentially devastating ripple effects across financial markets, undermining investors’ confidence in the central bank’s ability to shepherd the economy without political interference. It would come as markets have plummeted in recent weeks, with the major stock indexes already down sharply for the year."
Section 10.2 of the Federal Reserve Act provides that upon the expiration of the term of any appointive member of the Federal Reserve Board in office on the date of enactment of the Banking Act of 1935, the President shall fix the term of the successor to such member at not to exceed fourteen years, as designated by the President at the time of nomination, but in such manner as to provide for the expiration of the term of not more than one member in any two-year period, and thereafter each member shall hold office for a term of fourteen years from the expiration of the term of his predecessor, unless sooner removed for cause by the President.
So far, no Fed Chairman has been removed by a President.
Humphrey's Executor v. United States, 295 U.S. 602 (1935) outlines the President's authority to remove appointed officials. Given that there is no precedent for a President attempting to fire a Fed Chairman, it is not entirely clear whether the President has the absolute authority to do so. In Humphrey's Executor, the Supreme Court distinguished between executive officers and quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial officers. The latter may be removed only with procedures consistent with statutory conditions enacted by Congress; the former serve at the pleasure of the President and may be removed at his discretion. The legal question on Presidential authority hinges on which of these positions the Federal Reserve Chairman is found to occupy.
This question asks: Will President Trump fire Jerome Powell, or ask him to resign, with Powell acceding to that request?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports in the U.S. financial press state that Jerome Powell has left the position of Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and that he was either fired or asked by Trump or the Trump Administration to resign from the office.
It resolves negatively if Powell leaves of his own accord (e.g. to retire or pursue other opportunities, or in protest against Trump Administration policy or Trump himself), or if he leaves for reasons other than those outlined above (e.g. death, disability, incapacity, et cetera), or if his term of office expires and he is not appointed to a new term, does not seek a new term, or refuses to accept a new term.
The question also resolves negatively if Jerome Powell is still Fed Chairman when Donald Trump ceases to be President of the United States. | true | 2019-03-01 | Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve? | metaculus | 0 |
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In a 9-1-1 call shortly after the shooting began, Mateen swore allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and said the U.S. killing of Abu Waheeb in Iraq the previous month "triggered" the shooting. He later told a negotiator he was "out here right now" because of the American-led interventions in Iraq and in Syria and that the negotiator should tell the United States to stop the bombing.
It was the deadliest terrorist attack in the U.S. since the September 11 attacks in 2001.
This question asks: before January 1 2020, will there be any single terrorist attack in the United States involving the deaths of at least 25 people, excluding those of the perpetrator(s) of the attack?
An event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the Federal Government of the United States. Mass shootings or other criminal events that are not considered to be 'terrorist attacks' by Federal Government authorities do not count.
'United States' means all United States territory; any extent of region under the sovereign jurisdiction of the Federal Government of the United States, including all territorial waters, military bases, and all U.S. naval vessels.
In the event that victims die on after January 1 2020 but before February 1 2020 of injuries sustained in an event before January 1 2020, those deaths should be included. | true | 2019-02-01 | Will there be another terrorist attack causing more than 25 deaths in the United States before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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Musk thinks that the booster part (currently called "Super Heavy") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called "Starship" and before that Big Falcon Spaceship or BFS).
For those losing track of Musk's repeated renaming of the project Wikipedia provides up-to date section on BFR nomenclature.
About renaming BFR to Starship, Musk's has said:
Technically, two parts: Starship is the spaceship/upper stage & Super Heavy is the rocket booster needed to escape Earth’s deep gravity well (not needed for other planets or moons)
All rockets capable of reaching Earth's orbit with useful payload are built with at least two stages. Sometimes more. This is due to Rocket Equation. Dumping the dead weight of an empty first stage allows for more efficient use of energy. Super Heavy Starship (or BFR) is also built with two stages: the first stage is called "Super Heavy" and the second stage is called "Starship" (or BFS).
An interesting aspect of the Starship is that it will be able to fly without the Super Heavy. That will allow it to return from other planets and moons to the Earth. It will also be capable of single stage to orbit launch from the Earth without any useful payload. The capability is intended to be used for testing of entering planets atmospheres from super orbital velocities like Mars/Moon transfer velocities. According to Musk there are certain heating parameters that scale to the eighth power with regard to speed.
See Musk's explanation of how Starship will be tested.
Recently we got the first fan made photos of a test vehicle being assembled in Texas.
Musk confirmed:
I will do a full technical presentation of Starship after the test vehicle we’re building in Texas flies, so hopefully March/April
Previously the Starship was supposed to be built using composite materials, but the current design is using stainless steel.
Stainless steel is correct, but different mixture of alloys & new architecture. Unlike Atlas, Starship is buckling stable on launchpad even when unpressurized.
Scott Manley has nice discussion of the new approach.
Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?
The question will resolve positively if we get information from SpaceX in the form of a video or a photo showing that any early test version of Starship/BFS (the second or upper stage) has been launched before 1 January 2020. Launched here just means that all legs must be unambiguously above the ground when the vehicle is still in its original shape. After that, it could even explode without affecting how this question resolves.
The question will resolve negatively if no test is attempted or if the Starship will not manage to get off the ground in one piece before 2020. Several attempts are allowed.
Related question: Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? | true | 2019-02-14 | Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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Musk thinks that the booster part (currently called "Super Heavy") will be the easier part. Therefore, SpaceX is currently focusing on the upper stage (currently called "Starship" and before that "Big Falcon Spaceship" or "BFS").
For those losing track of Musk's repeated renaming of the project Wikipedia provides up-to date section on BFR nomenclature.
About renaming BFR to Starship, Musk's has said:
Technically, two parts: Starship is the spaceship/upper stage & Super Heavy is the rocket booster needed to escape Earth’s deep gravity well (not needed for other planets or moons)
All rockets capable of reaching Earth's orbit with useful payload are built with at least two stages. Sometimes more. This is due to the rocket equation. Dumping the dead weight of an empty first stage allows for more efficient use of energy. Super Heavy Starship (or BFR) is also built with two stages: the first stage is called "Super Heavy" and the second stage is called "Starship" (or BFS).
An interesting aspect of the Starship is that it will be able to fly without the Super Heavy. That will allow it to return from other planets and moons to the Earth. It will also be capable of single stage to orbit launch from the Earth without any useful payload. The capability is intended to be used for testing of entering planets atmospheres from super orbital velocities like Mars/Moon transfer velocities. According to Musk there are certain heating parameters that scale to the eighth power with regard to speed.
See Musk's explanation of how Starship will be tested.
In January 2019 an early test version of the Starship was assembled.
Regarding first orbital prototype Musk was predicting:
Should be done with first orbital prototype around June
The question asks:
Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?
The question will resolve positively if we get information from SpaceX that any test version of Starship with or without a booster reached space before 1 January 2021. For purpose of this question reaching space will mean being at attitude of at least 80km. After reaching space, it could even explode without affecting how this question resolves. In case of failures before reaching space, several attempts are allowed.
The question will resolve negatively if no test is attempted or Starship will not reach space as defined above.
Musk himself predicts:
How about the chances that Starship reaches orbit in 2020?
Probability at 60% & rising rapidly due to new architecture
Similar questions:
Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?
Will SpaceX test-launch the BFR before 2025? | true | 2019-02-28 | Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021? | metaculus | 0 |
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So how does one define that demarcation?
Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.
In practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way.
In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years (PDF) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.
The FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. On 30 Nov the FIA announced they’d be holding a joint FAI/IAF workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.
Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?
This will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution. | true | 2020-06-27 | Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023? | metaculus | 0 |
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As alluded to in the text of another question, parts of 2018 have been rocky for Facebook.
CEOs can willingly or unwillingly leave their positions for all kinds of reasons, including poor market performance, scandal, and retirement. According to one source, the average CEO tenure was 5.9 years from 2003 to 2015. According to another, CEO turnover in the last half of 2018 been at its highest levels since 2008.
This question asks the following:
At 12:00 AM GMT March 1st 2019, will Mark Zuckerberg be the CEO of Facebook, Inc.? | true | 2019-01-31 | Will Mark Zuckerberg be CEO of Facebook, Inc. on March 1st 2019? | metaculus | 1 |
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The House of Representatives can start the impeachment process with simple majority vote to bring charges against the president. In the impeachment trials The House of Representatives acts like a prosecutor. The Senate sits as a jury. Two-thirds of the Senators must find the sitting president guilty for him to be removed; per the US Constitution:
The Senate shall have the sole power to try all impeachments. When sitting for that purpose, they shall be on oath or affirmation. When the President of the United States is tried, the Chief Justice shall preside: And no person shall be convicted without the concurrence of two thirds of the members present.
A separate question asks if Trump will be impeached given that the Democrats retake the house. This has now occured, so that question now asks whether Trump will be impeached.
This questions asks: IF Trump is impeached, will the Senate remove him from office?
Question resolve positive if Trump is removed due to Senate vote after impeachment by the house. Resolves negative if Trump is acquitted by the Senate, or otherwise leaves office prior to the vote. Resolves ambiguous if Trump is not impeached by Jan 18, 2021. For maximal suspense, question will remain open until the beginning of the Senate vote, closing retroactively one hour prior to that first vote. | true | 2020-02-05 | If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president? | metaculus | 0 |
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In the aftermath of the 1917 Russian Revolution, Belarus declared independence as the Belarusian People's Republic, which was conquered by Soviet Russia. The Socialist Soviet Republic of Byelorussia became a founding constituent republic of the Soviet Union in 1922 and was renamed as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. During WWII, military operations devastated Belarus, which lost about a third of its population and more than half of its economic resources. The republic was redeveloped in the post-war years. In 1945 the Byelorussian SSR became a founding member of the United Nations, along with the Soviet Union and the Ukrainian SSR.
The parliament of the Republic proclaimed the sovereignty of Belarus on 27 July 1990, and during the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Belarus declared independence on 25 August 1991. Alexander Lukashenko has served as the country's first president since 1994. Belarus has been labeled "Europe's last dictatorship" by some Western journalists on account of Lukashenko's self-described authoritarian style of government.
Elections under Lukashenko's rule have been widely criticized as unfair; and according to many countries and organizations, political opposition has been violently suppressed. Belarus is also the last country in Europe using the death penalty. Belarus's Democracy Index rating is the lowest in Europe, the country is labelled as "not free" by Freedom House, and as "repressed" in the Index of Economic Freedom.
In recent years, particularly since Russia made military incursions into Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Crimea, a number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) of observers have raised the possibility that Russia may in the near future invade or annex Belarus.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?
This question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus. | true | 2021-01-01 | Will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus before 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
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This question resolves positively if Donald J. Trump is the president of the United States up to the end of his second term if he is reelected or up to the end of the current term if he is not. Resolves negatively otherwise. | true | 2020-03-10 | Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President? | metaculus | 1 |
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Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?
Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
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The favorite to win is Samsung's SAIDA bot, which got 1st place at the last big AI tournament "AIIDE 2018". It defeated Facebook's bot CherryPi which got 2nd place (results; CherryPi isn't participating in this year's SSCAIT). Although SAIDA is a rule-based bot (written in C++) like the other top competitors, it also incorporates some machine learning to predict enemy units in the fog of war.
Two competitors and bot authors, LetaBot and Jay Scott, have made predictions on the winner of SSCAIT 2018. According to them, some challengers to look out for are the protoss bots Locutus, BananaBrain, PurpleWave and the terran bot Iron bot. SAIDA plays terran. Lest one think that zerg bots are weak, last year's SSCAIT had two zerg finalists. | Science & Tech | Current standings are here. SSCAIT has a Student division to award the best performing bot created by a student, and an open Mixed division.
We ask: Will SAIDA win the Mixed division of SSCAIT 2018? | true | 2019-01-20 | Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will she be the 2020 Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party?
This question resolves positively if the Democratic Party officially recognizes (via press release, or any public statement made by official spokespeople or leadership figures of the Democratic Party) that Elizabeth Warren is the Nominee of their party for the office of President of the United States in the 2020 election cycle.
Warren need not be the Democratic Party Candidate on the date of the Presidential Election for this question to resolve positively; she merely needs to become the official Democratic Party Nominee at some point. A nomination for the office of Vice President shall not suffice for a positive resolution. | true | 2020-03-05 | Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will the identity of the author be revealed in 2019?
Resolution is positive if a reliable media report indicates with very high probability the author of the editorial, which can be based either on journalistic research, confession of the author, administrative action (such as firing an individual due to the authoring of the editorial), or another action identifying the author with high degree of certainty. Conjectures and publishing circumstantial evidence which could be pointing to possible authorship but not definitely resolving the question do not qualify as resolution. | true | 2019-08-01 | Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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On September 16, 2014, NASA selected the CST-100, along with SpaceX's Dragon V2, for the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) program, with an award of $4.2 billion. As of October 2018, the spacecraft is expected to conduct an automated test mission to the ISS in March 2019, and to carry its first crew on a demonstration flight in August 2019.
We have already a question "Attempted crewed SpaceX flight prior to 2020?". But no such question for Boeing.
Therefore this question asks:
Will the first crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner (test) launch take place prior to January 1st, 2020 at 00:00 UTC?
Should the rocket engines start before the above mentioned time, and lead to a launch that brings the crew to a height of at least 1 km alive, this question will resolve positive. Else negative. Safe return/survival of the crew is not required for positive resolution. | true | 2019-03-01 | Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
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The S&P 500 index components and their weightings are determined by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It differs from other U.S. stock market indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the NASDAQ Composite index, because of its diverse constituency and weighting methodology.
It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market, and a bellwether for the U.S. economy. On 1 January 2019, the index stood at 2,506.85 points.
When the NYSE closes on Dec 31 2019, will the S&P 500 index be higher than 2,506.85 points?
Resolves positively in the event that value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 2,506.85 points, and resolves negatively if the index value is equal to or lower than 2,506.85 points.
Resolves ambiguously if the Index is discontinued or changed so substantially that, in the view of a Metaculus administrator, it is no longer reasonable to continue with this question. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher? | metaculus | 1 |
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The crew of the Boeing 777-200ER aircraft last communicated with air traffic control (ATC) around 38 minutes after takeoff when the flight was over the South China Sea. The aircraft was lost from ATC radar screens minutes later, but was tracked by military radar for another hour, deviating westwards from its planned flight path, crossing the Malay Peninsula and Andaman Sea. It left radar range 200 nautical miles (370 km) northwest of Penang Island in northwestern Malaysia.
With all 227 passengers and 12 crew aboard presumed dead, the disappearance of Flight 370 was the deadliest incident involving a Boeing 777 and the deadliest incident of Malaysia Airlines' history, until it was surpassed in both regards by Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 four months later. The combined loss caused significant financial problems for Malaysia Airlines, which was renationalised by the Malaysian government in December 2014.
The search for the missing airplane became the most costly in aviation history. Several pieces of marine debris confirmed to be from the aircraft washed ashore in the western Indian Ocean during 2015 and 2016, but after a three-year search across 120,000 square kilometres (46,000 sq mi) of ocean failed to locate the aircraft, the Joint Agency Coordination Centre heading the operation suspended their activities in January 2017. A second search launched in January 2018 by the private contractor Ocean Infinity also ended without success after six months.
This question asks: Before 1 January 2020, will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found?
This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2020 credible media reports indicate that substantially all or a major part of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found and positively identified.
'Major parts' shall include largely intact engines, wings, cockpit voice or data recorders, the fuselage, or a debris field containing a large number of fragments identified as parts of MH370.
Small plane parts not connected to a larger find (for example, like the flaperons found washed up on Reunion) shall not suffice; nor will pieces of luggage. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-29 | 2019-01-03 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-04", 0.7], ["2019-01-05", 0.7], ["2019-01-05", 0.53], ["2019-01-05", 0.437], ["2019-01-05", 0.478], ["2019-01-05", 0.502], ["2019-01-05", 0.493], ["2019-01-05", 0.493], ["2019-01-05", 0.476], ["2019-01-05", 0.45], ["2019-01-05", 0.428], ["2019-01-05", 0.412], ["2019-01-05", 0.391], ["2019-01-05", 0.391], ["2019-01-05", 0.366], ["2019-01-05", 0.39], ["2019-01-05", 0.39], ["2019-01-05", 0.392], ["2019-01-06", 0.379], ["2019-01-06", 0.373], ["2019-01-06", 0.378], ["2019-01-06", 0.378], ["2019-01-06", 0.368], ["2019-01-07", 0.371], ["2019-01-07", 0.371], ["2019-01-07", 0.374], ["2019-01-07", 0.376], ["2019-01-07", 0.376], ["2019-01-07", 0.37], ["2019-01-08", 0.373], ["2019-01-08", 0.373], ["2019-01-08", 0.38], ["2019-01-09", 0.38], ["2019-01-09", 0.377], ["2019-01-10", 0.377], ["2019-01-10", 0.383], ["2019-01-11", 0.383], ["2019-01-11", 0.387], ["2019-01-11", 0.387], ["2019-01-11", 0.381], ["2019-01-12", 0.379], ["2019-01-13", 0.383], ["2019-01-14", 0.38], ["2019-01-14", 0.38], ["2019-01-14", 0.378], ["2019-01-15", 0.378], ["2019-01-15", 0.374], ["2019-01-15", 0.378], ["2019-01-15", 0.378], ["2019-01-15", 0.381], ["2019-01-15", 0.38], ["2019-01-15", 0.385], ["2019-01-15", 0.387], ["2019-01-16", 0.382], ["2019-01-16", 0.382], ["2019-01-16", 0.383], ["2019-01-16", 0.384], ["2019-01-16", 0.384], ["2019-01-16", 0.383], ["2019-01-16", 0.381], ["2019-01-16", 0.38]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1866/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 at 23:00 London time, following a referendum held in June 2016 in which 51.89% of voters voted to leave the EU, and 48.11% voted to remain.
As the closeness of the result suggests, this has been a very controversial affair within the UK. It has also proven difficult for UK and EU negotiators to agree on the terms of the exit, and the deal currently on the table (which EU officials say is not renegotiable) seems unlikely to be acceptable to the UK Parliament; but few want a no-deal exit, and it is widely (though not universally) felt that the referendum result makes remaining in the EU unacceptable.
In this difficult situation, one concern is that some options might be so unacceptable to some or all of the UK's population that they would lead to protests, violence or even insurrection. Metaculus already has a question asking whether this will happen if Brexit goes ahead on schedule. This question, conversely, asks: will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if Brexit is cancelled or delayed?
This question resolves ambiguously if Brexit occurs on schedule on 29 March 2019. Otherwise, it resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that rioting has taken place anywhere in the United Kingdom or Gibraltar as a result of the delay or cancellation. For positive resolution, the rioting must occur within 30 days of 23:00 London time 29 March 2019 and must directly result in damages to property (cars, shops, windows, etc.) amounting to at least £100,000 (≈$126,900).
(The resolution terms here are intended to be as closely parallel as possible to those of the earlier question.) | true | 2019-01-17 | Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
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In January 2019, just days before taking his seat in the Senate, Romney published an excoriating op-ed regarding President Trump's leadership in the Washington Post. This, coupled with Romney's previous claim that 'Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud' has caused some speculation that he may challenge the incumbent President in the Republican primaries before the 2020 Presidential Election. On 03 January 2019, Romney denied having any plans to challenge Trump in the Republican primaries.
As of 03 January 2019, Donald Trump is the only declared candidate in those primaries.
This question asks: Before 3 February 2020, the date of the Iowa caucus, will Mitt Romney declare himself a candidate in the Republican primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election cycle, in the event that Donald Trump is also a candidate?
Resolves positive if the above is true, resolves negative if Trump is a candidate and Romney does not before 3 February 2020 declare himself to be a candidate at any time that Trump is also a candidate, and resolves ambiguously if, before Romney makes a declaration of candidacy, Trump ceases to be candidate in the Republican primaries for any reason. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted (for any reason) before 30 June 2019? | true | 2019-06-30 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted? | metaculus | 0 |
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Will he run for President in the 2020 election cycle?
Resolves positively if Joe Biden announces, before January 1 2020, that he is running for the office of President of the United States. | true | 2019-01-16 | Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-04-24 | 2019-01-07 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-09", 0.33], ["2019-01-21", 0.266], ["2019-02-04", 0.275], ["2019-02-14", 0.285], ["2019-02-26", 0.281], ["2019-03-06", 0.37], ["2019-03-16", 0.373], ["2019-03-31", 0.372], ["2019-04-22", 0.374], ["2019-05-05", 0.374], ["2019-05-17", 0.374], ["2019-05-26", 0.367], ["2019-06-03", 0.362], ["2019-07-01", 0.362], ["2019-07-08", 0.359], ["2019-07-17", 0.357], ["2019-08-16", 0.358], ["2019-08-29", 0.356], ["2019-09-03", 0.362], ["2019-09-15", 0.363], ["2019-09-22", 0.364], ["2019-10-08", 0.364], ["2019-11-18", 0.362], ["2019-11-25", 0.36], ["2019-12-05", 0.36], ["2019-12-21", 0.358], ["2019-12-30", 0.356], ["2020-01-13", 0.358], ["2020-01-22", 0.356], ["2020-01-30", 0.362], ["2020-02-09", 0.419], ["2020-02-18", 0.419], ["2020-03-03", 0.419], ["2020-03-17", 0.434], ["2020-03-29", 0.444], ["2020-04-05", 0.445], ["2020-04-13", 0.447], ["2020-04-29", 0.448], ["2020-05-11", 0.455], ["2020-05-22", 0.455], ["2020-06-01", 0.455], ["2020-06-15", 0.462], ["2020-06-29", 0.465], ["2020-07-08", 0.468], ["2020-07-18", 0.47], ["2020-08-16", 0.472], ["2020-08-24", 0.476], ["2020-09-04", 0.48], ["2020-09-14", 0.483], ["2020-09-28", 0.483], ["2020-10-12", 0.489], ["2020-10-23", 0.493], ["2020-11-02", 0.493], ["2020-11-12", 0.503], ["2020-11-18", 0.504], ["2020-11-28", 0.505], ["2020-12-09", 0.516], ["2020-12-24", 0.52], ["2021-01-04", 0.522], ["2021-01-13", 0.527], ["2021-01-25", 0.526], ["2021-02-09", 0.53], ["2021-02-22", 0.537], ["2021-03-02", 0.542], ["2021-03-15", 0.543], ["2021-03-23", 0.543], ["2021-03-31", 0.54], ["2021-04-16", 0.541], ["2021-04-23", 0.542], ["2021-05-02", 0.542], ["2021-05-11", 0.544], ["2021-05-19", 0.549], ["2021-05-29", 0.551], ["2021-06-05", 0.55], ["2021-06-15", 0.55], ["2021-06-25", 0.551], ["2021-07-04", 0.55], ["2021-07-14", 0.552], ["2021-07-24", 0.552], ["2021-08-04", 0.552], ["2021-08-13", 0.553], ["2021-08-22", 0.553], ["2021-09-02", 0.555], ["2021-09-14", 0.559], ["2021-09-24", 0.559], ["2021-10-06", 0.565], ["2021-10-16", 0.565], ["2021-10-26", 0.569], ["2021-11-11", 0.57], ["2021-11-26", 0.571], ["2021-12-08", 0.574], ["2021-12-22", 0.575], ["2022-01-04", 0.581], ["2022-01-18", 0.593], ["2022-02-02", 0.6], ["2022-02-16", 0.623], ["2022-03-03", 0.644], ["2022-03-17", 0.688], ["2022-04-02", 0.699], ["2022-04-17", 0.711], ["2022-04-23", 0.773]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2511/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron, born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016.
In the first round of Presidential Elections in 2017, Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.
In the months following his election, Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30% and the Mouvement des gilets jaunes protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.
Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the 2022 Presidential Election?
Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.
Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.
This question will close retroactively 24 hours before polls open (currently scheduled for April 10, 2022) in the event that a candidate wins a majority in the first round of elections. | true | 2022-04-23 | Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? | metaculus | 1 |
2022-12-10 | 2019-01-08 | ["https://www-news.iaea.org/Default.aspx", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_power_accidents_by_country"] | binary | [["2019-01-10", 0.11], ["2019-01-14", 0.142], ["2019-01-18", 0.136], ["2019-01-21", 0.14], ["2019-01-25", 0.134], ["2019-02-10", 0.134], ["2019-02-12", 0.139], ["2019-02-22", 0.147], ["2019-03-05", 0.147], ["2019-03-21", 0.15], ["2019-03-28", 0.155], ["2019-03-31", 0.156], ["2019-04-13", 0.156], ["2019-04-26", 0.154], ["2019-05-05", 0.15], ["2019-05-08", 0.146], ["2019-05-26", 0.146], ["2019-06-09", 0.145], ["2019-06-09", 0.148], ["2019-07-06", 0.145], ["2019-07-08", 0.143], ["2019-07-22", 0.142], ["2019-07-28", 0.135], ["2019-08-06", 0.136], ["2019-08-08", 0.128], ["2019-08-12", 0.128], ["2019-08-15", 0.128], ["2019-08-20", 0.124], ["2019-08-22", 0.123], ["2019-08-26", 0.121], ["2019-08-30", 0.121], ["2019-09-02", 0.122], ["2019-09-14", 0.122], ["2019-09-14", 0.122], ["2019-10-04", 0.122], ["2019-10-27", 0.122], ["2019-11-01", 0.121], ["2019-11-20", 0.12], ["2019-12-04", 0.12], ["2019-12-14", 0.12], ["2019-12-17", 0.118], ["2020-01-01", 0.117], ["2020-01-04", 0.118], ["2020-01-13", 0.118], ["2020-01-14", 0.117], ["2020-01-24", 0.116], ["2020-02-08", 0.116], ["2020-02-11", 0.116], ["2020-02-15", 0.116], ["2020-02-18", 0.115], ["2020-03-03", 0.115], ["2020-03-11", 0.117], ["2020-03-17", 0.116], ["2020-03-23", 0.116], ["2020-03-24", 0.117], ["2020-03-31", 0.116], ["2020-04-05", 0.116], ["2020-04-08", 0.116], ["2020-04-14", 0.124], ["2020-04-18", 0.126], ["2020-04-23", 0.125], ["2020-04-26", 0.125], ["2020-04-30", 0.124], ["2020-05-03", 0.124], ["2020-05-15", 0.124], ["2020-05-25", 0.123], ["2020-05-28", 0.123], ["2020-05-31", 0.122], ["2020-06-05", 0.121], ["2020-06-08", 0.119], ["2020-06-12", 0.12], ["2020-06-22", 0.12], ["2020-06-28", 0.12], ["2020-07-02", 0.119], ["2020-07-07", 0.119], ["2020-08-14", 0.119], ["2020-08-15", 0.118], ["2020-08-20", 0.117], ["2020-08-29", 0.117], ["2020-08-30", 0.118], ["2020-09-11", 0.118], ["2020-09-27", 0.118], ["2020-10-02", 0.119], ["2020-10-06", 0.119], ["2020-10-09", 0.117], ["2020-10-16", 0.117], ["2020-10-16", 0.117], ["2020-10-23", 0.117], ["2020-10-25", 0.118], ["2020-11-01", 0.117], ["2020-11-05", 0.118], ["2020-11-09", 0.117], ["2020-11-18", 0.117], ["2020-11-25", 0.117], ["2020-11-28", 0.117], ["2020-12-08", 0.117], ["2020-12-13", 0.115], ["2020-12-19", 0.115], ["2020-12-23", 0.114], ["2020-12-29", 0.113], ["2020-12-31", 0.099]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2512/ | The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.
Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.
The INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.
To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the Chernobyl disaster that began on 26 April 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.
As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. | Environment & Energy | This question will resolve as Yes if an event or series of events that begins between January 1, 2019 to January 1, 2022 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before January 1, 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on this list or this list), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council | true | 2021-01-01 | Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-21 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-11", 0.66], ["2019-01-11", 0.66], ["2019-01-11", 0.65], ["2019-01-12", 0.633], ["2019-01-12", 0.633], ["2019-01-12", 0.722], ["2019-01-12", 0.693], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.701], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.68], ["2019-01-12", 0.643], ["2019-01-12", 0.643], ["2019-01-12", 0.647], ["2019-01-12", 0.667], ["2019-01-13", 0.667], ["2019-01-13", 0.648], ["2019-01-13", 0.648], ["2019-01-13", 0.642], ["2019-01-14", 0.642], ["2019-01-14", 0.651], ["2019-01-14", 0.68], ["2019-01-14", 0.683], ["2019-01-14", 0.694], ["2019-01-14", 0.694], ["2019-01-14", 0.69], ["2019-01-14", 0.69], ["2019-01-14", 0.69], ["2019-01-14", 0.693], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-14", 0.691], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-14", 0.695], ["2019-01-15", 0.687], ["2019-01-15", 0.687], ["2019-01-15", 0.683], ["2019-01-16", 0.684], ["2019-01-16", 0.682], ["2019-01-16", 0.682], ["2019-01-16", 0.68], ["2019-01-16", 0.683], ["2019-01-17", 0.686], ["2019-01-17", 0.685], ["2019-01-17", 0.685], ["2019-01-17", 0.686], ["2019-01-17", 0.689], ["2019-01-17", 0.692], ["2019-01-17", 0.692], ["2019-01-18", 0.693], ["2019-01-18", 0.693], ["2019-01-18", 0.694], ["2019-01-18", 0.699], ["2019-01-18", 0.704], ["2019-01-19", 0.704], ["2019-01-19", 0.704], ["2019-01-20", 0.706], ["2019-01-20", 0.707], ["2019-01-21", 0.706], ["2019-01-21", 0.706], ["2019-01-22", 0.699], ["2019-01-23", 0.694], ["2019-01-24", 0.698], ["2019-01-24", 0.698], ["2019-01-24", 0.699], ["2019-01-25", 0.699], ["2019-01-25", 0.701], ["2019-01-25", 0.699], ["2019-01-25", 0.699], ["2019-01-25", 0.699]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2520/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.
We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.
Question: Are people less likely to support psychiatric commitment if they have been committed themselves?
NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post. | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed? | metaculus | 1 |
2019-12-21 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-11", 0.6], ["2019-01-11", 0.45], ["2019-01-11", 0.525], ["2019-01-12", 0.573], ["2019-01-12", 0.598], ["2019-01-12", 0.61], ["2019-01-12", 0.673], ["2019-01-12", 0.69], ["2019-01-12", 0.677], ["2019-01-12", 0.677], ["2019-01-12", 0.673], ["2019-01-12", 0.642], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["2019-01-12", 0.613], ["2019-01-12", 0.613], ["2019-01-12", 0.611], ["2019-01-12", 0.616], ["2019-01-12", 0.607], ["2019-01-12", 0.607], ["2019-01-12", 0.6], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-12", 0.594], ["2019-01-13", 0.589], ["2019-01-13", 0.593], ["2019-01-13", 0.596], ["2019-01-14", 0.603], ["2019-01-14", 0.603], ["2019-01-14", 0.58], ["2019-01-14", 0.581], ["2019-01-14", 0.582], ["2019-01-15", 0.581], ["2019-01-15", 0.585], ["2019-01-16", 0.584], ["2019-01-17", 0.587], ["2019-01-17", 0.59], ["2019-01-17", 0.589], ["2019-01-17", 0.589], ["2019-01-17", 0.589], ["2019-01-18", 0.578], ["2019-01-18", 0.578], ["2019-01-18", 0.581], ["2019-01-19", 0.581], ["2019-01-19", 0.581], ["2019-01-19", 0.587], ["2019-01-20", 0.587], ["2019-01-20", 0.585], ["2019-01-21", 0.591], ["2019-01-21", 0.59], ["2019-01-21", 0.585], ["2019-01-21", 0.585], ["2019-01-21", 0.585], ["2019-01-22", 0.584], ["2019-01-22", 0.584], ["2019-01-22", 0.585], ["2019-01-22", 0.579], ["2019-01-22", 0.579], ["2019-01-23", 0.577], ["2019-01-23", 0.581], ["2019-01-24", 0.581], ["2019-01-24", 0.578], ["2019-01-24", 0.578], ["2019-01-24", 0.578], ["2019-01-25", 0.579], ["2019-01-25", 0.577]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2521/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.
We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.
Question: Are people more likely to attribute success to hard work/talent rather than luck if they are from a higher childhood social class?
NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post. | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-02-12 | 2019-01-09 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-12", 0.65], ["2019-01-12", 0.63], ["2019-01-12", 0.69], ["2019-01-12", 0.662], ["2019-01-12", 0.662], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.66], ["2019-01-12", 0.645], ["2019-01-12", 0.634], ["2019-01-12", 0.634], ["2019-01-12", 0.626], ["2019-01-12", 0.62], ["2019-01-12", 0.618], ["2019-01-13", 0.618], ["2019-01-13", 0.604], ["2019-01-14", 0.611], ["2019-01-14", 0.633], ["2019-01-14", 0.629], ["2019-01-14", 0.629], ["2019-01-14", 0.626], ["2019-01-14", 0.619], ["2019-01-14", 0.619], ["2019-01-14", 0.623], ["2019-01-14", 0.617], ["2019-01-14", 0.617], ["2019-01-14", 0.616], ["2019-01-14", 0.616], ["2019-01-14", 0.616], ["2019-01-14", 0.617], ["2019-01-14", 0.616], ["2019-01-15", 0.616], ["2019-01-15", 0.603], ["2019-01-15", 0.607], ["2019-01-15", 0.598], ["2019-01-15", 0.592], ["2019-01-15", 0.592], ["2019-01-15", 0.587], ["2019-01-15", 0.587], ["2019-01-15", 0.586], ["2019-01-16", 0.561], ["2019-01-16", 0.555], ["2019-01-17", 0.539], ["2019-01-17", 0.539], ["2019-01-17", 0.503], ["2019-01-17", 0.495], ["2019-01-17", 0.494], ["2019-01-17", 0.494], ["2019-01-18", 0.495], ["2019-01-18", 0.498], ["2019-01-20", 0.497], ["2019-01-20", 0.497], ["2019-01-21", 0.502], ["2019-01-21", 0.503], ["2019-01-21", 0.503], ["2019-01-22", 0.503], ["2019-01-22", 0.503], ["2019-01-23", 0.505], ["2019-01-23", 0.507], ["2019-01-24", 0.506], ["2019-01-24", 0.506], ["2019-01-24", 0.508], ["2019-01-24", 0.504], ["2019-01-24", 0.505], ["2019-01-24", 0.503], ["2019-01-25", 0.503]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2522/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Healthcare & Biology | This mini-series refers to the results of the preregistered investigations of the Slate Star Codex 2019 reader survey.
Scott Alexander of SSC conducted a similar survey of 8K readers in 2018, and the results were parceled out into Least Publishable Units (LPU) over the course of several blog posts. He's surveying his readership again, and we've selected for inclusion on Metaculus several of his proposed investigations.
We are using Scott's language, and resolutions will be determined by his own resolution of the questions. Also note that no claims are made as to the makeup or representativeness of the readers responding to SSC's survey, so bear that in mind as you make your predictions.
Question: Is there a difference in people’s efficacy ratings for SSRIs (SSRI Effectiveness, SSRI Overall) depending on whether the person was taking the SSRI for depression vs. for anxiety?
This question resolves positive if Scott concludes the question as indicating higher efficacy ratings for depression than for anxiety.
NB: When SSC publishes the relevant blog post, this question will retroactively close one hour prior to that post.
Edit 1/16/19: We plan to let Scott's conclusion (whether explicitly positive, negative, or ambiguous) determine how we resolve the question | true | 2019-01-25 | Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-09-18 | 2019-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-15", 0.48], ["2019-01-15", 0.44], ["2019-01-15", 0.44], ["2019-01-15", 0.453], ["2019-01-15", 0.465], ["2019-01-15", 0.452], ["2019-01-15", 0.452], ["2019-01-15", 0.437], ["2019-01-15", 0.428], ["2019-01-15", 0.42], ["2019-01-16", 0.415], ["2019-01-16", 0.415], ["2019-01-18", 0.412], ["2019-01-18", 0.412], ["2019-01-21", 0.419], ["2019-01-22", 0.416], ["2019-01-24", 0.422], ["2019-01-25", 0.422], ["2019-01-29", 0.428], ["2019-01-31", 0.425], ["2019-01-31", 0.424], ["2019-01-31", 0.424], ["2019-01-31", 0.419], ["2019-01-31", 0.416], ["2019-01-31", 0.413], ["2019-02-01", 0.413], ["2019-02-03", 0.408], ["2019-02-03", 0.408], ["2019-02-03", 0.402], ["2019-02-05", 0.406], ["2019-02-08", 0.406], ["2019-02-21", 0.406], ["2019-02-26", 0.406], ["2019-03-01", 0.406], ["2019-03-12", 0.406], ["2019-03-12", 0.405], ["2019-03-13", 0.405], ["2019-03-23", 0.403], ["2019-03-27", 0.404], ["2019-04-09", 0.407], ["2019-04-11", 0.408], ["2019-04-11", 0.409], ["2019-04-11", 0.409], ["2019-04-11", 0.407], ["2019-04-11", 0.407], ["2019-04-11", 0.404], ["2019-04-12", 0.404], ["2019-04-12", 0.402], ["2019-04-12", 0.395], ["2019-04-13", 0.394], ["2019-04-13", 0.392], ["2019-04-13", 0.392], ["2019-04-15", 0.39], ["2019-04-15", 0.39], ["2019-04-15", 0.39], ["2019-04-24", 0.391], ["2019-04-27", 0.391], ["2019-04-29", 0.391], ["2019-05-04", 0.392], ["2019-05-13", 0.392], ["2019-05-13", 0.389], ["2019-05-14", 0.389], ["2019-05-16", 0.389], ["2019-05-17", 0.387], ["2019-05-17", 0.387], ["2019-05-18", 0.386]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2535/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Education & Research | NeurIPS is widely regarded as the leading conference in machine learning. Held every year, it attracts large numbers of attendees, causing tickets to sell out within twelve minutes last year. Around the world, ML researchers furiously scramble to prepare papers in time to submit, as NeurIPS is also regarded as the most prestigious publication venue in ML.
Each year, once the list of accepted papers is released, people invariably calculate which institutions and authors have contributed the most papers, or the most first authorships. One relatively easy-to-check stat is for each institution, how many accepted papers have an author affiliated with that institution. In 2017 (when the conference was called NIPS) and 2018, the top institution was Google Research, by a large margin. However, the university rankings are somewhat more competitive: in 2017, Carnegie Mellon (CMU) was at the top, while in 2018, MIT took the lead. CMU also does well at the other leading ML conference, ICML, where it took top or equal top spot among universities in both 2017 and 2018.
In this question, we ask:
Will CMU be the university with the largest number of papers accepted to NeurIPS 2019 with at least one author affiliation?
Note that the question will resolve yes if CMU is tied for first place on this metric. Question closes when NeurIPS 2019 submissions are due, and resolves when a list of accepted papers with author and affiliation information is released. [N.B. these dates have not yet been publicly released, current close and resolve date is a best guess] | true | 2019-05-18 | Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-12-30 | 2019-01-12 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-15", 0.75], ["2019-01-15", 0.492], ["2019-01-16", 0.521], ["2019-01-17", 0.482], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.445], ["2019-01-20", 0.438], ["2019-01-20", 0.438], ["2019-01-21", 0.461], ["2019-01-22", 0.462], ["2019-01-27", 0.463], ["2019-01-31", 0.463], ["2019-02-01", 0.453], ["2019-02-01", 0.452], ["2019-02-03", 0.452], ["2019-02-03", 0.442], ["2019-02-04", 0.42], ["2019-02-05", 0.419], ["2019-02-06", 0.416], ["2019-02-11", 0.416], ["2019-02-12", 0.412], ["2019-02-13", 0.412], ["2019-02-14", 0.419], ["2019-02-14", 0.414], ["2019-02-18", 0.412], ["2019-02-18", 0.4], ["2019-02-19", 0.389], ["2019-02-19", 0.39], ["2019-02-20", 0.388], ["2019-02-21", 0.388], ["2019-02-22", 0.387], ["2019-02-22", 0.391], ["2019-02-23", 0.393], ["2019-02-25", 0.396], ["2019-02-25", 0.397], ["2019-02-26", 0.398], ["2019-02-27", 0.391], ["2019-02-27", 0.398], ["2019-03-01", 0.392], ["2019-03-02", 0.393], ["2019-03-03", 0.395], ["2019-03-05", 0.395], ["2019-03-05", 0.395], ["2019-03-11", 0.395], ["2019-03-12", 0.396], ["2019-03-19", 0.395], ["2019-03-21", 0.396], ["2019-03-25", 0.397], ["2019-03-27", 0.399], ["2019-03-28", 0.399], ["2019-03-29", 0.4], ["2019-03-30", 0.396], ["2019-03-30", 0.399], ["2019-03-31", 0.4], ["2019-04-01", 0.4], ["2019-04-03", 0.401], ["2019-04-03", 0.402], ["2019-04-09", 0.402], ["2019-04-09", 0.403], ["2019-04-10", 0.402], ["2019-04-11", 0.406], ["2019-04-11", 0.408], ["2019-04-14", 0.408], ["2019-04-15", 0.41], ["2019-04-16", 0.41], ["2019-04-17", 0.409], ["2019-04-18", 0.411], ["2019-04-19", 0.414], ["2019-04-19", 0.412], ["2019-04-21", 0.413], ["2019-04-21", 0.414], ["2019-04-22", 0.416], ["2019-04-23", 0.415], ["2019-04-24", 0.414], ["2019-04-24", 0.413], ["2019-04-26", 0.411], ["2019-04-30", 0.415], ["2019-05-03", 0.415], ["2019-05-06", 0.412], ["2019-05-07", 0.412], ["2019-05-11", 0.413], ["2019-05-13", 0.413], ["2019-05-13", 0.413], ["2019-05-15", 0.413], ["2019-05-16", 0.414], ["2019-05-20", 0.416], ["2019-05-21", 0.416], ["2019-05-22", 0.418], ["2019-05-23", 0.426], ["2019-05-23", 0.424], ["2019-05-24", 0.423], ["2019-05-24", 0.428], ["2019-05-25", 0.431], ["2019-05-26", 0.426], ["2019-05-26", 0.425], ["2019-05-27", 0.425], ["2019-05-28", 0.426], ["2019-05-29", 0.426], ["2019-05-30", 0.426], ["2019-05-31", 0.418], ["2019-05-31", 0.419]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2537/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | 2019 is a pivotal year for the UK, as it is currently scheduled to leave the EU on 29 March. However, the process has become mired in difficulty and embattled Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May looks set to lose a key vote on her Brexit deal within days.
UK opposition Parliament members have been told to prepare for a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Theresa May's government, as they see no way forward for her Brexit deal, according to a Guardian report on 12 January 2019.
This question asks: Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 1 January 2020?
This question will resolve positive if, at some point no later than 23:59 GMT on 31 December 2019, the United Kingdom has a Prime Minister who is not a member of the Conservative Party.
It will resolve negative if on 1 January 2020 the UK's Prime Minister is a member of the Conservative Party, and if between now and then the UK has not had a Prime Minister who isn't.
It will resolve ambiguous in other cases.
Notes on the resolution conditions: for positive resolution the PM needn't be Jeremy Corbyn, nor need it be a member of the Labour Party. The question will even resolve positive if Theresa May remains in power but leaves the Conservative Party. For negative resolution the PM needn't still be Theresa May, and there can be PM-less gaps if e.g. there is a general election between now and 1 January 2020. | true | 2019-05-31 | Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020? | metaculus | 0 |
2019-04-01 | 2019-01-14 | [] | binary | [["2019-01-18", 0.375], ["2019-01-18", 0.35], ["2019-01-18", 0.35], ["2019-01-18", 0.433], ["2019-01-18", 0.425], ["2019-01-18", 0.392], ["2019-01-18", 0.46], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.451], ["2019-01-18", 0.468], ["2019-01-18", 0.496], ["2019-01-18", 0.518], ["2019-01-18", 0.518], ["2019-01-18", 0.538], ["2019-01-18", 0.548], ["2019-01-18", 0.553], ["2019-01-19", 0.553], ["2019-01-19", 0.546], ["2019-01-19", 0.552], ["2019-01-19", 0.553], ["2019-01-19", 0.559], ["2019-01-19", 0.559], ["2019-01-19", 0.567], ["2019-01-20", 0.567], ["2019-01-20", 0.576], ["2019-01-20", 0.584], ["2019-01-20", 0.585], ["2019-01-20", 0.577], ["2019-01-20", 0.579], ["2019-01-21", 0.579], ["2019-01-21", 0.567], ["2019-01-21", 0.567], ["2019-01-21", 0.598], ["2019-01-21", 0.6], ["2019-01-22", 0.596], ["2019-01-22", 0.596], ["2019-01-22", 0.596], ["2019-01-22", 0.586], ["2019-01-22", 0.585], ["2019-01-22", 0.589], ["2019-01-22", 0.589], ["2019-01-23", 0.586], ["2019-01-23", 0.586], ["2019-01-24", 0.586], ["2019-01-24", 0.588], ["2019-01-25", 0.584], ["2019-01-25", 0.585], ["2019-01-25", 0.585], ["2019-01-25", 0.585], ["2019-01-25", 0.585], ["2019-01-25", 0.577], ["2019-01-25", 0.577], ["2019-01-25", 0.572], ["2019-01-25", 0.574], ["2019-01-25", 0.573], ["2019-01-26", 0.578], ["2019-01-26", 0.578], ["2019-01-26", 0.581], ["2019-01-28", 0.584], ["2019-01-28", 0.593], ["2019-01-28", 0.596], ["2019-01-28", 0.598], ["2019-01-29", 0.598], ["2019-01-29", 0.598], ["2019-01-29", 0.597], ["2019-01-29", 0.597], ["2019-01-30", 0.597], ["2019-01-30", 0.592], ["2019-01-30", 0.592], ["2019-01-30", 0.592], ["2019-01-30", 0.602], ["2019-01-31", 0.604], ["2019-01-31", 0.604], ["2019-01-31", 0.601], ["2019-01-31", 0.6], ["2019-01-31", 0.601], ["2019-01-31", 0.602], ["2019-01-31", 0.602]] | https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/2565/ | Not applicable/available for this question. | Politics & Governance | The Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) are french protesters of the Macron government policies.
They notably organised a series of grassroots protests all over France, every weekend for the last 9 weeks. The first one, on Saturday November 2018, gathered more than 285,000 people (i.e. ~0.4% of the population). Participation reached a low point around Christmas (~35,000), but is picking up again (~84,000 on 2019-01-12).
The question is then: will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters decline?
Resolves positively if no Yellow-Vests-affiliated protest gathers more than 150,000 people on any single day before (but not including) April 1st 2019. It resolves negatively if any such protest occurs. Resolution shall be by credible media source reporting Ministry of the Interior estimates for protesters all over France. The question resolves positively on April 1st 2019 or retroactively the day before any protest triggering negative resolution, whichever comes first.
Meta :
resolution date is chosen ~20 weeks after the movement's inception, versus ~10 weeks as of question writing
the 150,000 number is chosen semi-arbitrarily around the pre-Christmas level
the slightly awkward resolution criterion is because I threw a coin for the positive-resolution direction after choosing the metric | true | 2019-01-31 | Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline? | metaculus | 1 |