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1
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-04-01
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-14", 0.509008277876968], ["2023-04-01", 0.8848390060517084], ["2023-04-01", 0.9218620426163238]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Amaryllis/will-an-am5-motherboard-be-availabl
|
Resolves YES if an AMD AM5 motherboard is available new for less than $150 on Newegg or Amazon. Limited time promotions do not count.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will an AM5 motherboard be available for <$150 before end of March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-13", 0.48371374205332324], ["2023-02-15", 0.7049193996812083], ["2023-02-15", 0.7409572174441098], ["2023-02-15", 0.764407491428696], ["2023-03-10", 0.7453958298149352], ["2023-03-12", 0.05077665274530681], ["2023-03-12", 0.592057138627306], ["2023-03-13", 0.004555914841561505]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BenGoldhaber/will-there-be-violent-protests-in-m
|
There's been a spate of anti-government protests across Peru. Machu Picchu was closed for several weeks and recently reopened. What is the likelihood that before March 13th, 2023 there will be a violent protest (at least one serious injury or death sustained by protestors/police/military) in Cuzco or the Cuzco region? Feb 13, 9:38am:
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will there be violent protests in the Cuzco Region (Cuzco and Machu Pichu) in the next month?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-14
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.5689200033891121], ["2023-02-13", 0.5897007830456662], ["2023-02-13", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-13", 0.61], ["2023-02-13", 0.6551153100874534], ["2023-02-13", 0.6687983878092], ["2023-02-13", 0.6975723552745909], ["2023-02-13", 0.7333075229326452], ["2023-02-14", 0.5298058669122231], ["2023-02-14", 0.5399999999999999], ["2023-02-14", 0.5676537389147878], ["2023-02-20", 0.5371514869827809], ["2023-02-20", 0.5834462659322068], ["2023-02-20", 0.6032728528109087], ["2023-02-20", 0.61], ["2023-02-20", 0.61], ["2023-02-20", 0.61], ["2023-02-20", 0.6218635824105239], ["2023-02-24", 0.6265021478549029], ["2023-03-02", 0.4098046964368164], ["2023-03-02", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-03-02", 0.54], ["2023-03-02", 0.5585357312829451], ["2023-03-04", 0.5751079922501442], ["2023-03-07", 0.5479416144956583], ["2023-03-07", 0.6], ["2023-03-09", 0.5516656377036594], ["2023-03-10", 0.5129976172629497], ["2023-03-11", 0.39807176362728214], ["2023-03-11", 0.4744394564987579], ["2023-03-11", 0.5471657727718374], ["2023-03-11", 0.5631219571073172], ["2023-03-11", 0.5737029549686385], ["2023-03-12", 0.5737029549686394], ["2023-03-12", 0.5866649136568765], ["2023-03-13", 0.4940864310441931], ["2023-03-13", 0.5091985303860986], ["2023-03-13", 0.6000000000000001], ["2023-03-14", 0.5660970831449827], ["2023-03-14", 0.6342582647323446], ["2023-03-14", 0.7563009802445659], ["2023-03-14", 0.821205258220313], ["2023-03-14", 0.863690309149924], ["2023-03-14", 0.8923774308533161], ["2023-03-14", 0.9209689959909408], ["2023-03-14", 0.9501417619002014]]
|
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-inflation-in-the-us-be-above-6
|
Resolves YES if
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-14
|
Will inflation in the US be above 6.0% in February 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-20
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.1947807515211126], ["2023-02-13", 0.21691973969631242], ["2023-02-13", 0.22433891682348728], ["2023-02-13", 0.2382989670658713], ["2023-02-13", 0.23999999999999994], ["2023-02-13", 0.2897119329337561], ["2023-02-13", 0.31], ["2023-02-13", 0.33539372782437754], ["2023-02-13", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-02-13", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-02-13", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-02-13", 0.3590879464592861], ["2023-02-13", 0.3610979420754912], ["2023-02-13", 0.515920209363444], ["2023-02-13", 0.5591970303799942], ["2023-02-13", 0.6680648930736047], ["2023-02-13", 0.69], ["2023-02-13", 0.7494387353546818], ["2023-02-14", 0.18172162089339036], ["2023-02-14", 0.2], ["2023-02-14", 0.2194766624460353], ["2023-02-14", 0.2244935283091429], ["2023-02-14", 0.22748643738605942], ["2023-02-15", 0.11212234232363186], ["2023-02-15", 0.13000000000000006], ["2023-02-16", 0.11602641838152136], ["2023-02-17", 0.13543418417685885], ["2023-02-19", 0.24000000000000005], ["2023-02-19", 0.24000000000000005], ["2023-02-19", 0.24000000000000005], ["2023-02-19", 0.26206877460460953], ["2023-02-20", 0.21998080827964367], ["2023-02-21", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-02-21", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-02-21", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-02-21", 0.2961938630796363], ["2023-02-23", 0.22105814509732455], ["2023-02-23", 0.23000000000000004], ["2023-02-23", 0.26063364482329165], ["2023-02-23", 0.2796624158037354], ["2023-02-25", 0.17137952422158642], ["2023-02-25", 0.2799999999999999], ["2023-02-25", 0.2799999999999999], ["2023-02-25", 0.2799999999999999], ["2023-02-25", 0.2993170233826477], ["2023-02-28", 0.4], ["2023-02-28", 0.4], ["2023-02-28", 0.4], ["2023-02-28", 0.410816213050962], ["2023-02-28", 0.47703572564020175], ["2023-02-28", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-02-28", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-02-28", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-02-28", 0.5066456459392342], ["2023-02-28", 0.5137867319745245], ["2023-02-28", 0.5357409463250421], ["2023-02-28", 0.6799999999999999], ["2023-02-28", 0.6799999999999999], ["2023-02-28", 0.6799999999999999], ["2023-02-28", 0.698800686591197], ["2023-03-01", 0.5736287666804867], ["2023-03-01", 0.64], ["2023-03-01", 0.64], ["2023-03-01", 0.64], ["2023-03-01", 0.6510901972399324], ["2023-03-01", 0.7], ["2023-03-02", 0.7665967723821275], ["2023-03-02", 0.78], ["2023-03-02", 0.85], ["2023-03-02", 0.85], ["2023-03-02", 0.85], ["2023-03-02", 0.86307191420877], ["2023-03-02", 0.8642813288634263], ["2023-03-04", 0.8525574041669397], ["2023-03-11", 0.8577700852462128], ["2023-03-12", 0.8619931290385435], ["2023-03-21", 0.8680127567275476], ["2023-03-22", 0.9002053989151225], ["2023-04-01", 0.9224355240052147], ["2023-04-02", 0.9499101631610558], ["2023-04-02", 0.9653630844562663], ["2023-04-04", 0.9672558952555191], ["2023-04-07", 0.9598785213099463], ["2023-04-09", 0.9663181051427312], ["2023-04-10", 0.9904515168649923], ["2023-04-15", 0.9894721557296859], ["2023-04-20", 0.9815347239111624]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Jannik/will-the-cdu-be-part-of-the-governi
|
At the recent repeated election (12th Feb 23) in Berlin the Conservative Party CDU got the most votes (~28%), followed by the social democrats (SPD, ~18%). There is a majority for the current left-ish coalition (SPD, greens, left party Die Linke), but other coalitions are possible at this time (e.g. CDU and SPD) You can find the results here: This market resolves as soon as the first coalition is formally approved.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-23
|
Will the CDU be part of the governing coalition after the Feb election in Berlin?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-14
|
2023-02-13
|
["https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.024933338316081403], ["2023-02-13", 0.033574485079893364], ["2023-02-13", 0.033798206579718576], ["2023-02-13", 0.03592187430957385], ["2023-02-13", 0.04409129285186133], ["2023-02-13", 0.06000000000000005], ["2023-02-13", 0.0635982535434032], ["2023-02-13", 0.06460605592722103], ["2023-02-13", 0.06495985875384108], ["2023-02-13", 0.07999999999999997], ["2023-02-13", 0.08228595851478238], ["2023-02-13", 0.09527293661921035], ["2023-02-13", 0.11111329533304844], ["2023-02-13", 0.14034886744737102], ["2023-02-13", 0.19429729899545675], ["2023-02-13", 0.2065862346672894], ["2023-02-13", 0.21691973969631242], ["2023-02-13", 0.22404789573230183], ["2023-02-13", 0.29984362576506657], ["2023-02-13", 0.4033820984478575], ["2023-02-14", 0.023900656941042136], ["2023-02-14", 0.02493333831608138], ["2023-02-14", 0.02942220128233478]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BreezeIce/will-ethereum-go-back-up-to-1600
|
If the price of ethereum reaches 1,600$ or above at any point during today, resolves YES https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-14
|
Will Ethereum go back up to $1,600?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-15
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.3134403209628887], ["2023-02-13", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-02-14", 0.4428046681885729], ["2023-02-15", 0.02401861635018772], ["2023-02-15", 0.030000000000000006], ["2023-02-15", 0.04033144930437789], ["2023-02-15", 0.045791040650283846], ["2023-02-15", 0.07000000000000005], ["2023-02-15", 0.07194635902803145], ["2023-02-15", 0.08068857400251793], ["2023-02-15", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-02-15", 0.1461264257735134], ["2023-02-15", 0.17000000000000012], ["2023-02-15", 0.1753004422118761], ["2023-02-15", 0.1976861563818055], ["2023-02-15", 0.22896950736433525], ["2023-02-15", 0.2771460023804715], ["2023-02-15", 0.3], ["2023-02-15", 0.3190171755758433], ["2023-02-15", 0.3261454753810243], ["2023-02-15", 0.34637927423297205], ["2023-02-15", 0.3547286470445934], ["2023-02-15", 0.3576903337183349], ["2023-02-15", 0.38479448355116047], ["2023-02-15", 0.387986078346571], ["2023-02-15", 0.396269604902102], ["2023-02-15", 0.4871309009967961]]
|
https://manifold.markets/MoonMike/will-chelsea-beat-borussia-dortmund
|
Champions league Round of 16 first leg only Game is on Wednesday 15.2.2023 YES: Cheslea win NO: Borussia Dortmund win or draw
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-15
|
Will Chelsea beat Borussia Dortmund? (Only first leg)
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-01
|
2023-02-13
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/MuKitty"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.5077029515406496], ["2023-02-13", 0.526734880893977], ["2023-02-13", 0.5284437788601991], ["2023-02-13", 0.55], ["2023-02-13", 0.55], ["2023-02-13", 0.55], ["2023-02-13", 0.5821048934611942], ["2023-02-13", 0.58710611702628], ["2023-02-13", 0.6], ["2023-02-13", 0.6009072898583651], ["2023-02-13", 0.6068502869213763], ["2023-02-13", 0.6156863504550307], ["2023-02-13", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-13", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-13", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-13", 0.6214475232838268], ["2023-02-13", 0.6305410227048238], ["2023-02-13", 0.6545375426813278], ["2023-02-13", 0.69], ["2023-02-13", 0.7441081694061619], ["2023-02-13", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-02-13", 0.9063951317226902], ["2023-02-13", 0.9615384615384616], ["2023-02-13", 0.98], ["2023-02-14", 0.38286675038436946], ["2023-02-14", 0.41], ["2023-02-14", 0.42334229165454035], ["2023-02-14", 0.42334229165454035], ["2023-02-14", 0.42334229165454035], ["2023-02-14", 0.43], ["2023-02-14", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-02-14", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-02-14", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-02-14", 0.44049485821168854], ["2023-02-14", 0.4469305884406618], ["2023-02-14", 0.46], ["2023-02-14", 0.46], ["2023-02-14", 0.46], ["2023-02-14", 0.479683604437864], ["2023-02-14", 0.4799999999999999], ["2023-02-14", 0.4971661433780864], ["2023-02-15", 0.43966884949615614], ["2023-02-15", 0.46183187894327316], ["2023-02-15", 0.47000000000000003], ["2023-02-15", 0.47000000000000003], ["2023-02-15", 0.47000000000000003], ["2023-02-15", 0.4861890904694601], ["2023-02-15", 0.5], ["2023-02-15", 0.5], ["2023-02-15", 0.5], ["2023-02-15", 0.507305101307183], ["2023-02-15", 0.5100000000000001], ["2023-02-15", 0.5100000000000001], ["2023-02-15", 0.5100000000000001], ["2023-02-15", 0.53], ["2023-02-15", 0.5465288287048863], ["2023-02-15", 0.5573991554073533], ["2023-02-16", 0.3117160721196272], ["2023-02-16", 0.33999999999999997], ["2023-02-16", 0.37108872149197997], ["2023-02-16", 0.3799999999999999], ["2023-02-16", 0.3826606759320534], ["2023-02-16", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-16", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-16", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-16", 0.4138105358864349], ["2023-02-17", 0.13263821721402383], ["2023-02-17", 0.15786346843597016], ["2023-02-17", 0.16000000000000006], ["2023-02-17", 0.16000000000000006], ["2023-02-17", 0.16000000000000006], ["2023-02-17", 0.18999999999999992], ["2023-02-17", 0.19999999999999993], ["2023-02-17", 0.36043209037119395], ["2023-02-18", 0.07753505221877567], ["2023-02-18", 0.10000000000000002], ["2023-02-18", 0.13598275025280557], ["2023-02-18", 0.14], ["2023-02-19", 0.101025494038162], ["2023-02-20", 0.07658302133841074], ["2023-02-20", 0.09962592716485118], ["2023-02-20", 0.10701727333288467], ["2023-02-22", 0.08129988959843161], ["2023-02-22", 0.08226283769818528], ["2023-02-22", 0.08733633207929795], ["2023-02-22", 0.09287868425491029], ["2023-02-22", 0.09894717270004753], ["2023-02-22", 0.09894717270004753], ["2023-02-22", 0.09894717270004753], ["2023-02-22", 0.10560765335189908], ["2023-02-23", 0.08035331012346673], ["2023-02-25", 0.07942274131193616], ["2023-02-26", 0.07850783460445465], ["2023-02-27", 0.0580468692563011], ["2023-02-27", 0.07760825056073113], ["2023-02-28", 0.05301674311679813], ["2023-02-28", 0.05746874726813986], ["2023-03-01", 0.02611200802148788], ["2023-03-01", 0.02611200802148788], ["2023-03-01", 0.02611200802148788], ["2023-03-01", 0.02784314204766194], ["2023-03-01", 0.03686459964274181], ["2023-03-01", 0.03686459964274181], ["2023-03-01", 0.03686459964274181], ["2023-03-01", 0.040027766486781566]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Trend/will-mukitty-surpass-12k-subscriber
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/MuKitty
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-01
|
Will MuKitty surpass 12k subscribers by the end of February?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-13
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-13", 0.06476683937823836], ["2023-02-13", 0.08604502336875725], ["2023-02-13", 0.12], ["2023-02-13", 0.12887612724747124], ["2023-02-13", 0.13105001743712524], ["2023-02-13", 0.23584905660377364], ["2023-02-13", 0.2666137985725616], ["2023-02-13", 0.29], ["2023-02-13", 0.29], ["2023-02-13", 0.29], ["2023-02-13", 0.3079009322786718], ["2023-02-13", 0.37177374986979544], ["2023-02-13", 0.38105352138801174], ["2023-02-13", 0.3832842961158714], ["2023-02-13", 0.38679220479341825], ["2023-02-13", 0.4269477427138231], ["2023-02-13", 0.5014684256148629], ["2023-02-13", 0.585435716211362], ["2023-02-13", 0.6055806368182434], ["2023-02-13", 0.6510275412086489], ["2023-02-13", 0.6700000000000002], ["2023-02-13", 0.6700000000000002], ["2023-02-13", 0.6700000000000002], ["2023-02-13", 0.6853925675799382], ["2023-02-13", 0.69], ["2023-02-13", 0.69], ["2023-02-13", 0.69], ["2023-02-13", 0.7353703565023247], ["2023-02-13", 0.7515203207128445], ["2023-02-13", 0.8004698279656379], ["2023-02-13", 0.885768851057248], ["2023-02-13", 0.9600000000000001], ["2023-02-13", 0.9600000000000001], ["2023-02-13", 0.9600000000000001], ["2023-02-13", 0.9751364974065315], ["2023-02-13", 0.9755239947506196]]
|
https://manifold.markets/GappyV/will-the-chiefs-score-more-than-the
|
only counting 3rd quarter points
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-13
|
Will the Chiefs score more than the Eagles during the 3rd quarter?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-20
|
2023-02-13
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
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["2023-02-19", 0.9728591249683309], ["2023-02-19", 0.9728591249683309], ["2023-02-19", 0.973152374613957], ["2023-02-19", 0.9737392313398168], ["2023-02-19", 0.973938142028403], ["2023-02-19", 0.9749237267892891], ["2023-02-19", 0.9761749227459452], ["2023-02-19", 0.9761954079784364], ["2023-02-19", 0.9762221693187264], ["2023-02-19", 0.9764493956042479], ["2023-02-19", 0.978374740282213], ["2023-02-19", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.9657649168870222], ["2023-02-20", 0.9657992594318181], ["2023-02-20", 0.9658502070753677], ["2023-02-20", 0.965891658951289], ["2023-02-20", 0.9658961274479635], ["2023-02-20", 0.9658961274479635], ["2023-02-20", 0.9658961274479635], ["2023-02-20", 0.965925911887464], ["2023-02-20", 0.9659261862478189], ["2023-02-20", 0.9659707545241926], ["2023-02-20", 0.9660225269749079], ["2023-02-20", 0.9660415292827066], ["2023-02-20", 0.9664109183352435], ["2023-02-20", 0.9665112461694716], ["2023-02-20", 0.9665544921663822], ["2023-02-20", 0.9665601991549162], 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["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.98], ["2023-02-20", 0.981159185084936], ["2023-02-20", 0.9839281800016798], ["2023-02-20", 0.9839281800016798], ["2023-02-20", 0.9839281800016798], ["2023-02-20", 0.9860292432054165], ["2023-02-20", 0.9860330161542447], ["2023-02-20", 0.9869120555691558], ["2023-02-20", 0.9875486813638567], ["2023-02-20", 0.9876254372615946], ["2023-02-20", 0.9883434096472069], ["2023-02-20", 0.9900569841433235]]
|
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-at-least-3-more-peopl
|
Omits accounts with the "bot" tag.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-20
|
Will there be at least 3 more people holding YES shares than holding NO shares at market close?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-25
|
2023-02-14
|
["https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/LEC/2023_Season/Winter_Playoffs"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-14", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-02-20", 0.30035928053067285], ["2023-02-20", 0.3425127485538688], ["2023-02-20", 0.3822793964545865], ["2023-02-20", 0.3837045564424164], ["2023-02-20", 0.40731327141465146], ["2023-02-21", 0.27228718402917984], ["2023-02-25", 0.02333228260587307], ["2023-02-25", 0.028883210493034], ["2023-02-25", 0.03999999999999998], ["2023-02-25", 0.25893184379105466], ["2023-02-25", 0.28007177076559436], ["2023-02-25", 0.3036534777612215], ["2023-02-25", 0.3299981490314675], ["2023-02-25", 0.35945873236095677], ["2023-02-25", 0.39241337146199584], ["2023-02-25", 0.4712986539047278]]
|
https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-koi-win-the-2023-lec-winter-se
|
Finals are on 26th of February, 2023. Market closes when the first game of the Finals start at 18:00 CET. Will resolve YES if KOI wins the LEC Winter Season. Will resolve NO if KOI does not win the LEC Winter Season. https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/LEC/2023_Season/Winter_Playoffs
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-26
|
Will KOI win the 2023 LEC Winter Season?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-30
|
2023-02-14
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-14", 0.3569706065969919], ["2023-02-14", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-18", 0.42303955199845955], ["2023-02-18", 0.4842793096558576], ["2023-02-25", 0.4418163997813823], ["2023-02-25", 0.4842793096558575], ["2023-02-25", 0.5299711263682717], ["2023-03-03", 0.5653069086107769], ["2023-03-04", 0.5934695462122597], ["2023-03-11", 0.3082699464391689], ["2023-03-11", 0.5119375014098613], ["2023-03-11", 0.5264716235035372], ["2023-03-11", 0.6000240328977219], ["2023-03-24", 0.5842024824557747], ["2023-03-30", 0.44385049813856575], ["2023-03-30", 0.47958415577318775], ["2023-03-30", 0.48611515701111807], ["2023-03-30", 0.49], ["2023-03-30", 0.52], ["2023-03-30", 0.5371673553350284], ["2023-03-30", 0.54], ["2023-03-30", 0.5699999999999998], ["2023-03-30", 0.6054010586835317], ["2023-04-08", 0.5371673553350281], ["2023-04-08", 0.5371673553350281], ["2023-04-08", 0.5371673553350281], ["2023-04-08", 0.5371673553350281], ["2023-04-13", 0.3948983256172816], ["2023-04-13", 0.4418797682548207], ["2023-04-20", 0.20491284690380115], ["2023-04-20", 0.27], ["2023-04-25", 0.26130916202477994], ["2023-04-28", 0.4001680280161079], ["2023-04-28", 0.4001680280161079], ["2023-04-28", 0.4001680280161079], ["2023-04-28", 0.4706444877159968], ["2023-04-29", 0.32931729158714185], ["2023-04-29", 0.3388861904056239], ["2023-04-30", 0.17927671596387282], ["2023-04-30", 0.19623585040730662], ["2023-04-30", 0.21999999999999983]]
|
https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-27b0e7d9ac5d
|
This question will resolve based on April 2023 data from ycharts (
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-30
|
Will the US existing home median sales price be lower than $365,000 USD for April 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-05-24
|
2023-02-14
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-04-27", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-04-27", 0.4532530973675079], ["2023-04-27", 0.46197117860674214], ["2023-04-27", 0.46999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.46999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.46999999999999986], ["2023-04-27", 0.47076833186791384], ["2023-04-27", 0.47249947901120615], ["2023-04-27", 0.47626585950744177], ["2023-04-27", 0.4817104941179366], ["2023-04-27", 0.502764525184636], ["2023-04-27", 0.502764525184636], ["2023-04-27", 0.5027645251846361], ["2023-04-27", 0.5027645251846361], ["2023-04-27", 0.5027645251846361], ["2023-04-27", 0.5276696086003038], ["2023-04-27", 0.5332208334956112], ["2023-04-27", 0.5499999999999998], ["2023-04-27", 0.56], ["2023-04-27", 0.5613350709594547], ["2023-04-27", 0.5800000000000002], ["2023-04-27", 0.59], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-27", 0.6], ["2023-04-28", 0.5298772008578653], ["2023-04-28", 0.5303166581139978], ["2023-04-29", 0.5389987004250832], ["2023-04-29", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-04-29", 0.5574087163356948], ["2023-04-29", 0.5599999999999994], ["2023-04-29", 0.5599999999999996], ["2023-04-30", 0.5583094634081021], ["2023-04-30", 0.5589352999411505], ["2023-04-30", 0.5593434375783961], ["2023-04-30", 0.5594529817768618], ["2023-04-30", 0.5929622103713464], ["2023-04-30", 0.5929622103713464], ["2023-04-30", 0.5929622103713464], ["2023-04-30", 0.5942014491027166], ["2023-04-30", 0.5942014491027166], ["2023-04-30", 0.5942014491027166], ["2023-04-30", 0.5945805028798362], ["2023-04-30", 0.5947189632501485], ["2023-04-30", 0.5950880586445297], ["2023-04-30", 0.595456768058402], ["2023-04-30", 0.5958245209181926], ["2023-04-30", 0.5966414623534485], ["2023-04-30", 0.5978713745516883], ["2023-04-30", 0.5983708916330024], ["2023-04-30", 0.5999999999999996], ["2023-04-30", 0.5999999999999996], ["2023-04-30", 0.6], ["2023-04-30", 0.6], ["2023-04-30", 0.6], ["2023-04-30", 0.6], ["2023-04-30", 0.6], ["2023-04-30", 0.6000000000000001], ["2023-04-30", 0.6022150509392387], ["2023-04-30", 0.602225891314194], ["2023-04-30", 0.605801396293646], ["2023-04-30", 0.6058084389273923], ["2023-04-30", 0.6093534815236984], ["2023-04-30", 0.6128613132243066], ["2023-05-01", 0.5974074450655699], ["2023-05-01", 0.5994594893319594], ["2023-05-01", 0.5994601580167874], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999998], ["2023-05-01", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-05-01", 0.6203862063572333], ["2023-05-01", 0.6410826963421825], ["2023-05-01", 0.6467364853651153], ["2023-05-01", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-05-01", 0.652420076226668], ["2023-05-01", 0.6564527125172036], ["2023-05-01", 0.6848272794618645], ["2023-05-01", 0.6920356354163673], ["2023-05-01", 0.6920356354163673], ["2023-05-01", 0.6979102934322396], ["2023-05-02", 0.6426787270797588], ["2023-05-02", 0.646006533665849], ["2023-05-02", 0.6468269325768071], ["2023-05-02", 0.6471348871756096], ["2023-05-02", 0.647392660924231], ["2023-05-02", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-05-02", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-05-03", 0.5999999999999996], ["2023-05-03", 0.6035433835286232], ["2023-05-03", 0.6035433835286232], ["2023-05-03", 0.6035433835286232], ["2023-05-03", 0.6045971756604098], ["2023-05-03", 0.6049472321693868], ["2023-05-03", 0.6052969269999923], ["2023-05-03", 0.6066920951129952], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070396784976336], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6070502632494718], ["2023-05-03", 0.6091137825004481], 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["2023-05-24", 0.9865011174283762], ["2023-05-24", 0.986575327859622], ["2023-05-24", 0.9865882843337515], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9868980135063535], ["2023-05-24", 0.9870723056677246], ["2023-05-24", 0.9870782077062995], ["2023-05-24", 0.9870791586127067], ["2023-05-24", 0.9899834680297344], ["2023-05-24", 0.99], ["2023-05-24", 0.99], ["2023-05-24", 0.99], ["2023-05-24", 0.9904414536885988], ["2023-05-24", 0.9914467838135215], ["2023-05-24", 0.9917547215154612], ["2023-05-24", 0.9918297571496478], ["2023-05-24", 0.9928762500113408], ["2023-05-24", 0.9931683223298869], ["2023-05-24", 0.9932801480128015]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-ron-desantis-announce-he-is-se
|
Resolves YES if Desantis announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States by June 1. Resolves NO if not.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-05-24
|
Will Ron Desantis announce he is seeking the GOP nomination by the end of May
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-14
|
2023-02-14
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-14", 0.018575319385557874], ["2023-02-14", 0.021039708521290692], ["2023-02-14", 0.03257600395886523], ["2023-02-14", 0.0882185546327183], ["2023-02-14", 0.09878875477909493], ["2023-02-14", 0.11477333553570823], ["2023-02-14", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-02-14", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-02-14", 0.13999999999999999], ["2023-02-14", 0.14759756513704955], ["2023-02-14", 0.17134240192557762], ["2023-02-14", 0.1876141256957031], ["2023-02-14", 0.18921474334588156], ["2023-02-14", 0.26328647319845633], ["2023-02-14", 0.26397344637109516], ["2023-02-14", 0.2957691296324074], ["2023-02-14", 0.31], ["2023-02-14", 0.31], ["2023-02-14", 0.31], ["2023-02-14", 0.327391778828665], ["2023-02-14", 0.34646148171017843], ["2023-02-14", 0.38], ["2023-02-14", 0.38], ["2023-02-14", 0.38], ["2023-02-14", 0.3941967592394255], ["2023-02-14", 0.44623475573232396], ["2023-02-14", 0.44812248002633265], ["2023-02-14", 0.46737135837690486], ["2023-02-14", 0.47633662772971663], ["2023-02-14", 0.47795804301813766], ["2023-02-14", 0.49883585722378376], ["2023-02-14", 0.49883585722378376], ["2023-02-14", 0.49883585722378376], ["2023-02-14", 0.5245733288261933], ["2023-02-14", 0.5382227122227076], ["2023-02-14", 0.5544090056893294], ["2023-02-14", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-14", 0.6179628103138125], ["2023-02-14", 0.66], ["2023-02-14", 0.7099999999999997], ["2023-02-14", 0.7421518104602972]]
|
https://manifold.markets/8/will-aapl-close-at-above-or-below-1
|
Yes: Above No: Below Resolves according to Google's market summary. In the unlikely case that it stays the same, resolves N/A. Closes at 7:59 EST.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-14
|
Will AAPL close at above or below $153.85 on February 14, 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-02-22", 0.4372648886934801], ["2023-02-22", 0.47999999999999987], ["2023-02-22", 0.47999999999999987], ["2023-02-22", 0.47999999999999987], ["2023-02-22", 0.5444795726936899], ["2023-02-22", 0.6120666084814261], ["2023-02-22", 0.63], ["2023-02-22", 0.647512685795914], ["2023-02-22", 0.6508425046406907], ["2023-02-24", 0.5], ["2023-02-26", 0.61], ["2023-02-26", 0.61], ["2023-02-26", 0.61], ["2023-02-26", 0.641466370205969], ["2023-02-27", 0.5553750210788634], ["2023-02-27", 0.5582811434030006], ["2023-02-27", 0.57], ["2023-02-27", 0.57], ["2023-02-27", 0.57], ["2023-03-04", 0.5230058634754522], ["2023-03-08", 0.5479149601405069], ["2023-03-09", 0.49927649566349397], ["2023-03-09", 0.52199129217214], ["2023-03-12", 0.026105284790255392], ["2023-03-12", 0.1918039016408579], ["2023-03-12", 0.23000000000000007], ["2023-03-12", 0.27106660809669114], ["2023-03-12", 0.39541129880213793], ["2023-03-12", 0.47922406494258196]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-gmhikaru-hikaru-nakamura-win-t
|
https://thestreamerawards.com/about
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will GMHikaru (Hikaru Nakamura) win the award for 'Best Chess Streamer' at the Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-25", 0.4881153226810424], ["2023-03-12", 0.979388517207187], ["2023-03-12", 0.9995199324411759]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-asmongold-win-the-best-mmorpg
|
Resolves YES if Asmongold wins. Resolves NO if he doesn't. https://thestreamerawards.com/about
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Asmongold win the 'Best MMORPG Streamer' category at The Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-03-12", 0.005841717260529724], ["2023-03-12", 0.017804975486588857], ["2023-03-12", 0.030925907371530878], ["2023-03-12", 0.30000000000000004], ["2023-03-12", 0.7761531622366872], ["2023-03-12", 0.7883373054148913]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ludwig-win-the-league-of-their
|
https://thestreamerawards.com/about
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Ludwig win the 'League of their Own' category at The Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-22
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.017394663215677574], ["2023-02-21", 0.02000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.030000000000000065], ["2023-02-21", 0.030000000000000065], ["2023-02-21", 0.030000000000000065], ["2023-02-21", 0.040831290345378225], ["2023-02-21", 0.05454804789929172], ["2023-02-21", 0.06862208536204213], ["2023-02-21", 0.08696501632544834], ["2023-02-21", 0.08696501632544834], ["2023-02-21", 0.10545597903729356], ["2023-02-21", 0.14], ["2023-02-21", 0.14], ["2023-02-21", 0.14], ["2023-02-21", 0.16998561775986448], ["2023-02-21", 0.1702197527086024], ["2023-02-21", 0.399563102332761], ["2023-02-21", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-02-21", 0.5000414889331377], ["2023-02-21", 0.5041262815242925], ["2023-02-21", 0.52], ["2023-02-21", 0.52], ["2023-02-21", 0.52], ["2023-02-21", 0.5456664377078797], ["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-21", 0.5905126140371763], ["2023-02-21", 0.591493597975215], ["2023-02-21", 0.597418411669711], ["2023-02-21", 0.6194698679001078], ["2023-02-21", 0.6461850284348404], ["2023-02-21", 0.6544351148720045], ["2023-02-21", 0.6605479643024984], ["2023-02-21", 0.67], ["2023-02-21", 0.6851573085483255], ["2023-02-21", 0.6968891467448463], ["2023-02-21", 0.7210434321710317], ["2023-02-21", 0.8], ["2023-02-21", 0.8240652548278058], ["2023-02-21", 0.8505346354466756], ["2023-02-22", 0.004915795187393936], ["2023-02-22", 0.004958503114843143]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-there-be-more-than-15-concurre
|
Resolves to yes if anyone uploads a screenshot of this being the case
|
Social Sciences
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-22
|
Will there be more than 15 concurrent members in #Lounge in today's community hours?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-22", 0.5998762254316552], ["2023-02-26", 0.5370658805152422], ["2023-03-10", 0.41228332271898027], ["2023-03-10", 0.5772053044679322], ["2023-03-10", 0.6133471146865023], ["2023-03-10", 0.6458044254611749], ["2023-03-11", 0.36089855783721897], ["2023-03-11", 0.37], ["2023-03-11", 0.38560757796820705], ["2023-03-12", 0.002891599393778172], ["2023-03-12", 0.005342844725284513], ["2023-03-12", 0.00984567943589453], ["2023-03-12", 0.03708137355530154], ["2023-03-12", 0.038464586862359845], ["2023-03-12", 0.21505271040147697], ["2023-03-12", 0.22326537532837334], ["2023-03-12", 0.23387150459960107], ["2023-03-12", 0.38413576833016694], ["2023-03-12", 0.38413576833016705]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jerma985-win-the-streamer-of-t
|
https://thestreamerawards.com/about Resolves YES if Jerma985 wins the category. Resolves NO if someone else does.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Jerma985 win the 'Streamer of the Year' category at The Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-21
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.0017046400052185505], ["2023-02-21", 0.001716363663752604], ["2023-02-21", 0.0019497546108246013], ["2023-02-21", 0.0022691938598823863], ["2023-02-21", 0.002673487518429395], ["2023-02-21", 0.0031954350952532224], ["2023-02-21", 0.0033374547915209574], ["2023-02-21", 0.003696651578590187], ["2023-02-21", 0.003838702224671733], ["2023-02-21", 0.0038582368126244613], ["2023-02-21", 0.0040779578833190725], ["2023-02-21", 0.0042141723119332695], ["2023-02-21", 0.0043981612400171375], ["2023-02-21", 0.005613874285102638], ["2023-02-21", 0.007117361000387502], ["2023-02-21", 0.009136586101764061], ["2023-02-21", 0.01632630520456511], ["2023-02-21", 0.02000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.02000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.02000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.02000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.022502964896507282], ["2023-02-21", 0.04000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.04000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.04000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.043551211216388455], ["2023-02-21", 0.056622815928728025], ["2023-02-21", 0.056622815928728025], ["2023-02-21", 0.056622815928728025], ["2023-02-21", 0.07511737503116746], ["2023-02-21", 0.08445919483043787], ["2023-02-21", 0.08809506302426154], ["2023-02-21", 0.0958948190852542], ["2023-02-21", 0.11785954026332474], ["2023-02-21", 0.11880029295199411], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.15], ["2023-02-21", 0.16057005921003425], ["2023-02-21", 0.166812656928923], ["2023-02-21", 0.19173440529724534], ["2023-02-21", 0.1924091750112661], ["2023-02-21", 0.19925638696956774], ["2023-02-21", 0.21312674887376915], ["2023-02-21", 0.2527594516342389], ["2023-02-21", 0.26], ["2023-02-21", 0.26], ["2023-02-21", 0.26], ["2023-02-21", 0.2695135184978981], ["2023-02-21", 0.27771291883380006], ["2023-02-21", 0.28867479194648776], ["2023-02-21", 0.29129924339102553], ["2023-02-21", 0.3041599098314474], ["2023-02-21", 0.3246074894430582], ["2023-02-21", 0.3246074894430582], ["2023-02-21", 0.3246074894430582], ["2023-02-21", 0.3281260038649413], ["2023-02-21", 0.39], ["2023-02-21", 0.41199780574515055], ["2023-02-21", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-02-21", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-02-21", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-02-21", 0.43405665770042867], ["2023-02-21", 0.4377431906614786], ["2023-02-21", 0.48059651857466634], ["2023-02-21", 0.5231866839900022], ["2023-02-21", 0.5341933724852276], ["2023-02-21", 0.5394862642615845], ["2023-02-21", 0.5835442300942557], ["2023-02-21", 0.61], ["2023-02-21", 0.61], ["2023-02-21", 0.6218465403538155], ["2023-02-21", 0.6466394659243996], ["2023-02-21", 0.65], ["2023-02-21", 0.6617905068405919], ["2023-02-21", 0.6747916393947307], ["2023-02-21", 0.6885572104947935], ["2023-02-21", 0.7], ["2023-02-21", 0.7], ["2023-02-21", 0.7], ["2023-02-21", 0.7137192704203013], ["2023-02-21", 0.7300235132999381], ["2023-02-21", 0.7970152041188693], ["2023-02-21", 0.7970152041188693], ["2023-02-21", 0.7970152041188693], ["2023-02-21", 0.8036959443551817], ["2023-02-21", 0.8080376044776253], ["2023-02-21", 0.8751088859994982], ["2023-02-21", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.9150659487927022], ["2023-02-21", 0.920332047200504]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Shah/22123-will-streamer-win-this-starcr
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-21
|
2/21/23 Will streamer win this starcraft match?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-30
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcIaacYh3CGJCVJYBqlcC4Q"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.492974850355077], ["2023-02-21", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-21", 0.7191011235955054], ["2023-02-23", 0.5098080777453261], ["2023-02-23", 0.5463204222579341], ["2023-02-23", 0.6353319091677404], ["2023-02-24", 0.29128114915815856], ["2023-02-24", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-02-24", 0.3996254482725303], ["2023-03-02", 0.28550102558999263], ["2023-03-07", 0.6743771166864959], ["2023-03-07", 0.8426203251889178], ["2023-03-07", 0.9127993218161778], ["2023-03-07", 0.9461862427616172], ["2023-03-07", 0.9640810108331372], ["2023-03-08", 0.9661187147388358], ["2023-03-08", 0.9662922998741154], ["2023-03-08", 0.9679921682645356], ["2023-03-08", 0.9684924952665814], ["2023-03-09", 0.6696359804328273], ["2023-03-09", 0.77], ["2023-03-09", 0.8000000000000002], ["2023-03-09", 0.8000000000000002], ["2023-03-09", 0.8000000000000002], ["2023-03-09", 0.8160436564270305], ["2023-03-09", 0.8317711773418033], ["2023-03-09", 0.8800000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.9121211556050108], ["2023-03-09", 0.9348768544194096], ["2023-03-09", 0.9393051778163461], ["2023-03-09", 0.959555956104656], ["2023-03-09", 0.959555956104656], ["2023-03-09", 0.9602680647051749], ["2023-03-10", 0.8399999999999999], ["2023-03-10", 0.8399999999999999], ["2023-03-10", 0.8399999999999999], ["2023-03-10", 0.8877804776280113], ["2023-03-18", 0.605583530535855], ["2023-03-18", 0.7300000000000001], ["2023-03-18", 0.8488086846657337], ["2023-03-18", 0.8627493828388401], ["2023-03-20", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-03-20", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-03-20", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-03-20", 0.7300000000000001], ["2023-03-22", 0.6724250871106555], ["2023-03-25", 0.82], ["2023-03-25", 0.82], ["2023-03-25", 0.82], ["2023-03-25", 0.901179513551144], ["2023-03-26", 0.8685434424776232], ["2023-03-29", 0.5091017928218474], ["2023-03-29", 0.5209140265437685], ["2023-03-29", 0.6300000000000001], ["2023-03-29", 0.8544330696474806], ["2023-03-30", 0.4366654133804719], ["2023-03-30", 0.46], ["2023-03-30", 0.4718512501884673], ["2023-03-30", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-03-30", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-03-30", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-03-30", 0.5251723043262387], ["2023-04-01", 0.6399999999999998], ["2023-04-01", 0.6399999999999998], ["2023-04-01", 0.6399999999999998], ["2023-04-01", 0.7079428646073881], ["2023-04-03", 0.6683552442489159], ["2023-04-08", 0.77], ["2023-04-08", 0.77], ["2023-04-08", 0.77], ["2023-04-08", 0.8219522688377489], ["2023-04-08", 0.8923301107664767], ["2023-04-08", 0.9005900740963034], ["2023-04-12", 0.3199999999999999], ["2023-04-12", 0.47988219040970376], ["2023-04-12", 0.5187351072065118], ["2023-04-12", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-12", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-12", 0.7458266017191105], ["2023-04-12", 0.8354954213204067], ["2023-04-12", 0.8354954213204067], ["2023-04-12", 0.8354954213204067], ["2023-04-12", 0.9245599828694987], ["2023-04-12", 0.9267464591350413], ["2023-04-12", 0.9397724367077958], ["2023-04-12", 0.9502023191684569], ["2023-04-14", 0.6369061142418642], ["2023-04-14", 0.6369061142418642], ["2023-04-16", 0.5153016710582011], ["2023-04-17", 0.5900000000000002], ["2023-04-17", 0.6555508554201095], ["2023-04-23", 0.7460273831846145], ["2023-04-23", 0.818605084455289], ["2023-04-24", 0.735585197227364], ["2023-04-26", 0.4499999999999999], ["2023-04-26", 0.6188537637551919], ["2023-04-27", 0.03980973586610868], ["2023-04-27", 0.10783007460196059], ["2023-04-27", 0.10783007460196062], ["2023-04-27", 0.16803570291711234], ["2023-04-27", 0.26455507814621754], ["2023-04-27", 0.4211193401350493], ["2023-04-27", 0.45000000000000007], ["2023-04-27", 0.4600000000000002], ["2023-04-27", 0.4600000000000002], ["2023-04-27", 0.4600000000000002], ["2023-04-27", 0.49214301097617535], ["2023-04-27", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-27", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-27", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-27", 0.7241430444414689], ["2023-04-28", 0.22999057073160442], ["2023-04-28", 0.286532913003684], ["2023-04-28", 0.4155209262031113], ["2023-04-28", 0.5887464337741972], ["2023-04-28", 0.6], ["2023-04-28", 0.6336848861563728], ["2023-04-28", 0.6496122825675692], ["2023-04-28", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.6918272261473372], ["2023-04-28", 0.7226096114754834], ["2023-04-28", 0.7332102112530701], ["2023-04-28", 0.7459685932102436], ["2023-04-28", 0.7499999697752174], ["2023-04-28", 0.7635716905698197], ["2023-04-28", 0.776446982498875], ["2023-04-28", 0.776446982498875], ["2023-04-28", 0.776446982498875], ["2023-04-28", 0.7859970049732148], ["2023-04-28", 0.7859970049732148], ["2023-04-28", 0.7859970049732148], ["2023-04-28", 0.7899999999999999], ["2023-04-28", 0.8268150585379156], ["2023-04-29", 0.5623410624124264], ["2023-04-29", 0.687931748458621], ["2023-04-29", 0.7405189035112321], ["2023-04-30", 0.4364646562219015], ["2023-04-30", 0.46080863079564544], ["2023-04-30", 0.48985438666618486], ["2023-04-30", 0.5188138804360283], ["2023-04-30", 0.5405679052586008], ["2023-04-30", 0.5903301337897563], ["2023-04-30", 0.6412677248674719], ["2023-04-30", 0.6451616634064534], ["2023-04-30", 0.7208627676654238], ["2023-04-30", 0.7326108661338453], ["2023-04-30", 0.7387634702425373], ["2023-04-30", 0.7511631502880844], ["2023-04-30", 0.7610836732362085], ["2023-04-30", 0.7687668777401169], ["2023-04-30", 0.771383362409196], ["2023-04-30", 0.7936255026726389], ["2023-04-30", 0.7959670067782406], ["2023-04-30", 0.7986561924120209], ["2023-04-30", 0.802094452716472], ["2023-04-30", 0.802094452716472], ["2023-04-30", 0.8194623221182011], ["2023-04-30", 0.826900506790209], ["2023-04-30", 0.8345810065935118], ["2023-04-30", 0.8345810065935119], ["2023-04-30", 0.8403736285843535], ["2023-04-30", 0.8445806719043493], ["2023-04-30", 0.8488152381256823], ["2023-04-30", 0.8646141819644213]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BradYencc15/will-hazepski-have-50-subscribers-b
|
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCcIaacYh3CGJCVJYBqlcC4Q This is Hazepski's youtube. He doesn't upload a lot, since he stopped playing Geometry Dash and got into Genshin Impact, but now he's started making Genshin videos. Go check out a few of his videos, and maybe subscribe lmao.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-05-04
|
Will Hazepski have 50 subscribers by the end of April?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.29255918461103386], ["2023-02-21", 0.4934682834312538], ["2023-02-21", 0.5848097585374105], ["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-24", 0.3500000000000001], ["2023-02-24", 0.35999999999999993], ["2023-02-24", 0.38], ["2023-02-24", 0.3902996770173802], ["2023-02-24", 0.39277217352979316], ["2023-02-25", 0.42093859289287283], ["2023-02-27", 0.33946761587474555], ["2023-02-27", 0.3800000000000001], ["2023-02-27", 0.3800000000000001], ["2023-02-27", 0.3800000000000001], ["2023-03-02", 0.4160314208578887], ["2023-03-12", 0.6692387224452453], ["2023-03-12", 0.74], ["2023-03-12", 0.8075936984905394], ["2023-03-12", 0.83], ["2023-03-12", 0.8445182205299786], ["2023-03-12", 0.9900461088705085]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-elden-ring-win-stream-game-of
|
https://thestreamerawards.com/about
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Elden Ring win 'Stream Game of the Year' at The Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-02-21
|
["https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-02-22", 0.5444452168110927], ["2023-02-22", 0.6018705719914742], ["2023-02-22", 0.6289925682757201], ["2023-02-23", 0.6820526272606325], ["2023-02-24", 0.7084650184955699], ["2023-02-28", 0.7507478321195978], ["2023-02-28", 0.77], ["2023-02-28", 0.7776915815146057], ["2023-02-28", 0.79], ["2023-02-28", 0.7994749143592034], ["2023-02-28", 0.8100198077510957], ["2023-02-28", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-02-28", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-02-28", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-02-28", 0.85], ["2023-02-28", 0.85], ["2023-02-28", 0.85], ["2023-02-28", 0.8665087414715895], ["2023-03-02", 0.8170615816257516], ["2023-03-04", 0.7999405406010041], ["2023-03-04", 0.8270552857577548], ["2023-03-04", 0.8485988819226646], ["2023-03-04", 0.8537143373104158], ["2023-03-05", 0.833085399825171], ["2023-03-05", 0.8400000000000001], ["2023-03-07", 0.843469424374737], ["2023-03-10", 0.8093341026763785], ["2023-03-10", 0.833094743687704], ["2023-03-13", 0.8449968821959432], ["2023-03-13", 0.9422836770132033]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-guillermo-del-toros-pinocchio
|
Resolves YES if it wins, NO otherwise. Other Oscars markets: https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will 'Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio' win the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film at the 95th Academy Awards?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-03
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.17373371220533082], ["2023-02-21", 0.17635551387687556], ["2023-02-21", 0.2002413026485978], ["2023-02-21", 0.20803263697687635], ["2023-02-21", 0.28089887640449446], ["2023-02-21", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-22", 0.19946741639023638], ["2023-02-22", 0.20737809031573204], ["2023-02-22", 0.2199999999999999], ["2023-02-22", 0.22256977146627457], ["2023-02-22", 0.24344590919457107], ["2023-02-27", 0.17000000000000007], ["2023-02-27", 0.17000000000000007], ["2023-02-27", 0.17000000000000007], ["2023-02-27", 0.17899553978648516], ["2023-02-27", 0.17899553978648516], ["2023-02-27", 0.17899553978648516], ["2023-02-27", 0.2121306284329266], ["2023-02-28", 0.1544990152109251], ["2023-02-28", 0.1576455001129399], ["2023-02-28", 0.1799999999999999], ["2023-03-01", 0.07619686954449778], ["2023-03-01", 0.08999999999999993], ["2023-03-01", 0.08999999999999993], ["2023-03-01", 0.08999999999999993], ["2023-03-01", 0.10013273975368898], ["2023-03-02", 0.05811623034888831], ["2023-03-02", 0.05811623034888831], ["2023-03-02", 0.05811623034888831], ["2023-03-02", 0.0660862149370726], ["2023-03-03", 0.0034094262506531273], ["2023-03-03", 0.007221208167745985], ["2023-03-03", 0.007236910692425098], ["2023-03-03", 0.012420175075631989], ["2023-03-03", 0.012463513374471102], ["2023-03-03", 0.012925389664634607], ["2023-03-03", 0.01292538966463461], ["2023-03-03", 0.03901771991814229], ["2023-03-03", 0.04502461151605673], ["2023-03-03", 0.05000670666202468]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-the-twitter-tweet-ranking-algo
|
Elon Musk on Twitter: "@dsmart Prepare to be disappointed at first when our algorithm is made open source next week, but it will improve rapidly!" / Twitter Feb 21, 9:12pm:
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-03
|
Will the Twitter tweet ranking algorithm and implementation be published under an open source license on or before midnight on the 3rd of March 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-30
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.14792899408284027], ["2023-02-21", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.3356846973824849], ["2023-02-22", 0.24077464023553266], ["2023-02-22", 0.2499999999999999], ["2023-02-22", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-02-22", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-02-22", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-02-22", 0.34205619029886164], ["2023-02-22", 0.37000000000000005], ["2023-02-22", 0.3704974462737237], ["2023-02-22", 0.3800000000000001], ["2023-02-22", 0.40252127276705496], ["2023-02-22", 0.4103815050715657], ["2023-02-23", 0.3474041507414465], ["2023-03-16", 0.14604761958315257], ["2023-03-16", 0.2137591714404797], ["2023-03-17", 0.13258866614146364], ["2023-03-17", 0.1366090161685104], ["2023-03-29", 0.25907550083994973], ["2023-03-29", 0.343614509916785], ["2023-04-12", 0.23070625808452605], ["2023-04-12", 0.25523364228976014], ["2023-04-12", 0.25523364228976014], ["2023-04-12", 0.25523364228976014], ["2023-04-12", 0.26064188915711733], ["2023-04-12", 0.26064188915711733], ["2023-04-12", 0.26064188915711733], ["2023-04-12", 0.2906401843876067], ["2023-04-15", 0.1270965795091999], ["2023-04-15", 0.15000000000000002], ["2023-04-15", 0.15000000000000002], ["2023-04-15", 0.15000000000000002], ["2023-04-15", 0.15000000000000002], ["2023-04-28", 0.1314743526906475], ["2023-04-29", 0.10545623112418608], ["2023-04-30", 0.021880931887234403], ["2023-04-30", 0.04218551911110314], ["2023-04-30", 0.045179234006881216], ["2023-04-30", 0.048967965638547335], ["2023-04-30", 0.09599491870772948]]
|
https://manifold.markets/jonny/will-amazon-substantially-alter-or
|
Andy Jassy recently shared return to office plans with Amazon employees, as per the announcement here: From the above: This market resolves to YES if Andy Jassy or another plausible spokesperson for Amazon issues a company-wide statement either retracting a company-wide 3 days per week in the office, or meaningfully changing it. Meaningful changes would include only twice a week in the office, only certain organizations within Amazon have to be in the office, etc. Other kinds of changes will be resolved at my discretion - feel free to ask in the comments how I would resolve if you want more clarity.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-30
|
Will Amazon substantially alter or retract its return to office plans by May 1st 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-01
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.2725814866615213], ["2023-02-21", 0.2891657667596013], ["2023-02-21", 0.3399314651880989], ["2023-02-21", 0.3399314651880989], ["2023-02-21", 0.3399314651880989], ["2023-02-21", 0.34342531176481156], ["2023-02-21", 0.3755555526301715], ["2023-02-21", 0.40379892030643333], ["2023-02-21", 0.4064996148366028], ["2023-02-21", 0.4108304411060269], ["2023-02-21", 0.4108304411060269], ["2023-02-21", 0.4108304411060269], ["2023-02-21", 0.449039871023162], ["2023-02-21", 0.449039871023162], ["2023-02-21", 0.449039871023162], ["2023-02-21", 0.45054669519044516], ["2023-02-21", 0.45054669519044516], ["2023-02-21", 0.45054669519044516], ["2023-02-21", 0.48854281427769547], ["2023-02-21", 0.4938356611158963], ["2023-02-21", 0.5040354955217878], ["2023-02-21", 0.5040354955217878], ["2023-02-21", 0.5040354955217878], ["2023-02-21", 0.5420237377037722], ["2023-02-21", 0.5420237377037722], ["2023-02-21", 0.5420237377037722], ["2023-02-21", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-02-21", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-02-21", 0.544686527345487], ["2023-02-21", 0.5874133596767462], ["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-21", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-22", 0.2358466498718072], ["2023-02-22", 0.25180929941534], ["2023-02-23", 0.26999999999999996], ["2023-02-23", 0.2798622710457763], ["2023-02-24", 0.25597972054761015], ["2023-02-28", 0.20494670538119272], ["2023-02-28", 0.21378766730927476], ["2023-02-28", 0.23338983046654224], ["2023-03-01", 0.04624775153339765], ["2023-03-01", 0.05125291574693649], ["2023-03-01", 0.07000000000000003], ["2023-03-01", 0.08020355208563001], ["2023-03-01", 0.0864237770996192], ["2023-03-01", 0.0964359593720403], ["2023-03-01", 0.09913745650016184], ["2023-03-01", 0.11], ["2023-03-01", 0.12342937934481306], ["2023-03-01", 0.1683735963282253]]
|
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-more-traders-who-bet
|
The Manifold Discord server (which you can join If someone bets on Discord and also directly on Manifold (or via the API), I'll count them as a Discord bettor. The only people who don't count as Discord bettors are people who never placed any bets here via Discord. If this market gets posted multiple times in the Discord I'll include all of them that I'm aware of, but please don't spam it.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-02
|
Will there be more traders who bet in this market from Discord than traders who didn't?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-01
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.28727727322683266], ["2023-02-21", 0.329688435470049], ["2023-02-21", 0.329688435470049], ["2023-02-21", 0.329688435470049], ["2023-02-21", 0.35671092548721656], ["2023-02-21", 0.3645791384055132], ["2023-02-21", 0.3645791384055132], ["2023-02-21", 0.3645791384055132], ["2023-02-21", 0.37999999999999995], ["2023-02-21", 0.40221364669529713], ["2023-02-21", 0.4212481953195703], ["2023-02-21", 0.4212481953195703], ["2023-02-21", 0.4212481953195703], ["2023-02-21", 0.48505766008407375], ["2023-02-21", 0.48505766008407375], ["2023-02-21", 0.48505766008407375], ["2023-02-21", 0.4877211106355835], ["2023-02-21", 0.5768460631162634], ["2023-02-21", 0.5768460631162634], ["2023-02-21", 0.5768460631162634], ["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-21", 0.5980799110072557], ["2023-02-21", 0.61], ["2023-02-21", 0.650572863963344], ["2023-02-21", 0.69], ["2023-02-21", 0.69], ["2023-02-21", 0.69], ["2023-02-21", 0.77], ["2023-02-21", 0.7835362123063218], ["2023-02-21", 0.83], ["2023-02-21", 0.8432551620174219], ["2023-02-21", 0.8566175827910949], ["2023-02-21", 0.87], ["2023-02-21", 0.8781275296133858], ["2023-02-21", 0.9031266724240934], ["2023-02-22", 0.7201227003135529], ["2023-02-22", 0.73], ["2023-02-22", 0.73], ["2023-02-22", 0.73], ["2023-02-22", 0.8062244634228118], ["2023-02-22", 0.82], ["2023-02-22", 0.82], ["2023-02-22", 0.82], ["2023-02-23", 0.6922710844082793], ["2023-02-24", 0.35562719266050236], ["2023-02-24", 0.37], ["2023-02-24", 0.37], ["2023-02-24", 0.37], ["2023-02-24", 0.4239016987640112], ["2023-02-24", 0.45054643560695906], ["2023-02-24", 0.4658262684101029], ["2023-02-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2023-02-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2023-02-24", 0.48000000000000004], ["2023-02-24", 0.5007702885668273], ["2023-02-24", 0.52], ["2023-02-24", 0.52], ["2023-02-24", 0.52], ["2023-02-24", 0.5565193347324605], ["2023-02-24", 0.5743123316222364], ["2023-02-24", 0.58], ["2023-02-24", 0.6223230170178461], ["2023-02-26", 0.3706802853906445], ["2023-02-26", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-26", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-26", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-02-26", 0.5424761814689033], ["2023-02-27", 0.422050796193332], ["2023-02-27", 0.44207726873091985], ["2023-02-27", 0.44207726873091985], ["2023-02-27", 0.44207726873091985], ["2023-02-27", 0.46113713019424046], ["2023-02-28", 0.28199668441343034], ["2023-02-28", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-02-28", 0.3010617055967677], ["2023-02-28", 0.31], ["2023-02-28", 0.32147586883611406], ["2023-02-28", 0.43273788318420214], ["2023-03-01", 0.03502603282963283], ["2023-03-01", 0.11623264258021365], ["2023-03-01", 0.11809498775043002], ["2023-03-01", 0.12000000000000002], ["2023-03-01", 0.13001438333560705], ["2023-03-01", 0.13219821344687524], ["2023-03-01", 0.1575020440966708], ["2023-03-01", 0.16657214820454846], ["2023-03-01", 0.17000000000000007], ["2023-03-01", 0.17683714751978155]]
|
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-at-least-30-people-bet-in-this
|
The Manifold Discord server (which you can join If this market gets posted multiple times in the Discord I'll include all of them, but please don't spam it.
|
Other
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-01
|
Will at least 30 users bet in this market from Discord?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-05-28
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.0713803260803449], ["2023-02-21", 0.08000000000000004], ["2023-02-21", 0.08559139549146114], ["2023-02-21", 0.0920962782447229], ["2023-02-21", 0.11999999999999997], ["2023-02-21", 0.11999999999999997], ["2023-02-21", 0.11999999999999997], ["2023-02-21", 0.12000000000000002], ["2023-02-21", 0.13], ["2023-02-21", 0.1366686080885807], ["2023-02-21", 0.16824807154430316], ["2023-02-21", 0.18], ["2023-02-21", 0.19331634249980112], ["2023-02-21", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-02-21", 0.36999999999999994], ["2023-02-21", 0.3742807999055381], ["2023-02-21", 0.3742807999055381], ["2023-02-21", 0.3899845600960757], ["2023-02-21", 0.38999999999999996], ["2023-02-21", 0.40228880040146553], ["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-23", 0.4599999999999999], ["2023-02-23", 0.47879746375925], ["2023-02-27", 0.49], ["2023-02-27", 0.5], ["2023-02-28", 0.49230175287496886], ["2023-03-01", 0.41566098128236234], ["2023-03-01", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-03-01", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-03-01", 0.43000000000000005], ["2023-03-01", 0.53], ["2023-03-01", 0.53], ["2023-03-01", 0.53], ["2023-03-01", 0.55], ["2023-03-01", 0.5864614922162529], ["2023-03-01", 0.5882289265647658], ["2023-03-02", 0.31876100471450486], ["2023-03-02", 0.4], ["2023-03-02", 0.4], ["2023-03-02", 0.4], ["2023-03-02", 0.4399999999999999], ["2023-03-02", 0.6055141385733341], ["2023-03-02", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-02", 0.647347740645783], ["2023-03-03", 0.42040671869549523], ["2023-03-17", 0.42040671869549495], ["2023-03-17", 0.42040671869549495], ["2023-03-17", 0.42040671869549495], ["2023-03-17", 0.42040671869549495], ["2023-03-18", 0.3348328589083588], ["2023-05-01", 0.33701364079639773], ["2023-05-02", 0.341371326065192], ["2023-05-03", 0.3434121057718577], ["2023-05-18", 0.2774744629608995], ["2023-05-18", 0.29665087065596324], ["2023-05-18", 0.33297267070486136], ["2023-05-28", 0.3048531673131819]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Eban/will-the-supreme-court-vote-in-unan
|
Gonzalez vs. Google Summary: -Liability for targeted ads/content on platform -Challenging secontion 230
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-06-30
|
Will the Supreme Court vote in unanimous dissent in Gonzalez vs. Google?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-22
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-22", 0.005242082107437942], ["2023-02-22", 0.005242082107437942], ["2023-02-22", 0.005242082107437942], ["2023-02-22", 0.013430638601887545], ["2023-02-22", 0.03]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Vortex/feb-21-2023-election-will-republica
|
According to its Wikipedia page, VA-04 is listed as D+16, if the Democratic margin of victory is 16pts or less or they lose this market will resolve to "Yes". If the Democratic candidate wins by more than 16pts this market will resolve to "No".
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-22
|
FEB 21 2023 ELECTION: Will Republicans cover the spread in Virginia’s 4th congressional district Special Election?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-20
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.4363459996246726], ["2023-02-21", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-02-21", 0.5116463816091056], ["2023-02-21", 0.532726185324393], ["2023-02-21", 0.532726185324393], ["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-21", 0.6], ["2023-02-21", 0.60683059139755], ["2023-02-21", 0.6075610864196984], ["2023-02-21", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.62493574984389], ["2023-02-21", 0.66], ["2023-02-21", 0.66], ["2023-02-21", 0.66], ["2023-02-21", 0.6625084992394441], ["2023-02-21", 0.6674847157554982], ["2023-02-21", 0.6727775103602232], ["2023-02-22", 0.6399821337480972], ["2023-02-22", 0.6399821337480972], ["2023-02-22", 0.6399821337480972], ["2023-02-22", 0.6502567022330725], ["2023-02-22", 0.6502567022330726], ["2023-02-22", 0.6646047747708402], ["2023-02-22", 0.6646047747708405], ["2023-02-22", 0.6781307104222725], ["2023-02-23", 0.5633098079892277], ["2023-02-23", 0.5768441511169866], ["2023-02-23", 0.5768441511169868], ["2023-02-23", 0.59], ["2023-02-23", 0.59], ["2023-02-23", 0.59], ["2023-02-23", 0.5919348587905289], ["2023-02-23", 0.6493944480361951], ["2023-02-24", 0.5919348587905289], ["2023-02-24", 0.6062968469108458], ["2023-02-24", 0.6182984621229842], ["2023-02-25", 0.6189649139971491], ["2023-02-25", 0.6297959514279946], ["2023-02-27", 0.6405427615704742], ["2023-02-27", 0.6503394197616834], ["2023-02-27", 0.66], ["2023-02-27", 0.66], ["2023-02-27", 0.66], ["2023-02-27", 0.6834172184379818], ["2023-03-02", 0.6224828809335645], ["2023-03-02", 0.6323797482042597], ["2023-03-02", 0.6405427615704741], ["2023-03-02", 0.6505181596935953], ["2023-03-02", 0.6505181596935953], ["2023-03-02", 0.6601037028559182], ["2023-03-09", 0.6421294897684588], ["2023-03-13", 0.7104370398053786], ["2023-03-13", 0.7220251769411677], ["2023-03-13", 0.7999534306875857], ["2023-03-14", 0.8347938731209903], ["2023-03-14", 0.8610491085140061], ["2023-03-14", 0.8813133941833855], ["2023-03-14", 0.897283412374787], ["2023-03-14", 0.9100997549981155], ["2023-03-14", 0.9204738319268645], ["2023-03-14", 0.9205494072536826], ["2023-03-14", 0.9291884998810579], ["2023-03-14", 0.9310592228134024], ["2023-03-14", 0.9364186231603059], ["2023-03-14", 0.9425354826078493], ["2023-03-14", 0.9477606760487425], ["2023-03-14", 0.9522629185736732], ["2023-03-17", 0.8730892059236591], ["2023-03-17", 0.91], ["2023-03-17", 0.9225789246467485], ["2023-03-17", 0.9494637744486275], ["2023-03-17", 0.9498400590051642], ["2023-03-18", 0.942698025491227], ["2023-03-19", 0.9536933054807225], ["2023-03-20", 0.9730117888293467], ["2023-03-20", 0.9741678353778095], ["2023-03-20", 0.9752337068867503], ["2023-03-20", 0.9762258358648916], ["2023-03-20", 0.9771512567153812], ["2023-03-20", 0.978016159311483], ["2023-03-20", 0.978826010040875], ["2023-03-20", 0.9795856528381873]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-xi-jinping-meet-with-vladimir-eafd59a46e1e
|
Putin signaled that he expects Xi to visit him soon during a conference call between the two this morning. Resolves YES if Xi and Putin meet on Russian soil by the end of May 2023.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-20
|
Will Xi Jinping meet with Vladimir Putin in Russia by the end of May 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-25
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.18], ["2023-02-21", 0.2537382653508537], ["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-27", 0.18895050221782442], ["2023-02-27", 0.25040869894253637], ["2023-02-27", 0.3499999999999999], ["2023-02-27", 0.37131310684226343], ["2023-04-19", 0.79], ["2023-04-19", 0.8551397773917597], ["2023-04-19", 0.8699999999999999], ["2023-04-19", 0.8699999999999999], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-20", 0.698795373421797], ["2023-04-20", 0.74], ["2023-04-20", 0.74], ["2023-04-20", 0.74], ["2023-04-20", 0.74], ["2023-04-20", 0.7499999999999999], ["2023-04-20", 0.7499999999999999], ["2023-04-20", 0.7499999999999999], ["2023-04-21", 0.75], ["2023-04-22", 0.76], ["2023-04-23", 0.8301476659345022], ["2023-04-23", 0.8758852393346866], ["2023-04-23", 0.89], ["2023-04-25", 0.916264135201566], ["2023-04-25", 0.9346698689566267], ["2023-04-25", 0.9479382530186535], ["2023-04-25", 0.95]]
|
https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-a-1-or-2-seed-lose-in-the-firs
|
With the addition of the Play-In Tournament in 2020 - and the switch to the Page-McIntyre system in 2021 - the top 2 seeds in each conference begin their playoffs against play-in teams. Throughout these three playoffs, the closest a play-in team has gotten to winning their First Round series is taking two games off. Will we see at least one team break the barrier and be the first play-in team to move on to the Conference Semifinals?
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-27
|
Will a 1 or 2 seed lose in the First Round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-24
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.22248128896399624], ["2023-02-21", 0.5719934103763628], ["2023-02-21", 0.5735884663951358], ["2023-02-21", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-22", 0.4106420949701246], ["2023-02-27", 0.39492267871824205], ["2023-02-27", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-02-27", 0.4413701584907509], ["2023-02-27", 0.46], ["2023-02-27", 0.48000000000000004], ["2023-02-27", 0.48850457287220733], ["2023-02-28", 0.3793040330572708], ["2023-03-11", 0.4216733615641756], ["2023-04-03", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-04-03", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-04-03", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-04-03", 0.4599592000671185], ["2023-04-08", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-04-08", 0.44000000000000006], ["2023-04-13", 0.6600832558114846], ["2023-04-14", 0.6294208182510386], ["2023-04-16", 0.79], ["2023-04-16", 0.8279811437861619], ["2023-04-17", 0.7865868633974714], ["2023-04-17", 0.8043584304074792], ["2023-04-17", 0.81], ["2023-04-17", 0.81], ["2023-04-17", 0.81], ["2023-04-17", 0.8650439364249302], ["2023-04-18", 0.7542830185631613], ["2023-04-18", 0.7927845600619466], ["2023-04-18", 0.8399017948567418], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-19", 0.87], ["2023-04-19", 0.870761346111173], ["2023-04-19", 0.870761346111173], ["2023-04-19", 0.870761346111173], ["2023-04-19", 0.88], ["2023-04-19", 0.88], ["2023-04-19", 0.8827352511666832], ["2023-04-19", 0.8937179652369683], ["2023-04-19", 0.9], ["2023-04-20", 0.78], ["2023-04-20", 0.7866832807737183], ["2023-04-20", 0.8594508782782995], ["2023-04-20", 0.874111621952257], ["2023-04-20", 0.874111621952257], ["2023-04-20", 0.874111621952257], ["2023-04-20", 0.8942330333241051], ["2023-04-21", 0.79], ["2023-04-21", 0.79], ["2023-04-21", 0.79], ["2023-04-21", 0.7962496532026536], ["2023-04-23", 0.8089158267322033], ["2023-04-23", 0.8297414652113426], ["2023-04-23", 0.8297414652113426], ["2023-04-23", 0.8297414652113426], ["2023-04-23", 0.8703174097044876], ["2023-04-23", 0.8820772517834665], ["2023-04-23", 0.8922791179825341], ["2023-04-23", 0.9109714667542208], ["2023-04-23", 0.9145227273887293], ["2023-04-23", 0.9195333070423684], ["2023-04-23", 0.9200000000000002], ["2023-04-23", 0.9300000000000002], ["2023-04-24", 0.9071066883321364], ["2023-04-24", 0.9137456898702966], ["2023-04-24", 0.9249596523921718]]
|
https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-a-playin-team-win-at-least-3-g
|
With the addition of the Play-In Tournament in 2020 - and the switch to the Page-McIntyre system in 2021 - the top 2 seeds in each conference begin their playoffs against play-in teams. Throughout these three playoffs, the closest a play-in team has gotten to winning their First Round series is taking two games off. Will we see at least one team break the barrier and win at least 3 games in their First Round series?
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-25
|
Will a play-in team win at least 3 games in the First Round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.2860084658505893], ["2023-02-21", 0.7272528625120183], ["2023-02-21", 0.7272528625120183], ["2023-02-21", 0.7272528625120183], ["2023-02-21", 0.7674883545411683], ["2023-02-21", 0.8000109060533184], ["2023-02-21", 0.8235286261268645], ["2023-02-21", 0.87], ["2023-02-21", 0.8802586571849721], ["2023-02-21", 0.8826720796026597], ["2023-02-22", 0.8425892236415218], ["2023-02-22", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-02-23", 0.8110511730340956], ["2023-02-23", 0.8243295375759079], ["2023-02-28", 0.7418468780326976], ["2023-02-28", 0.8668239610543048], ["2023-02-28", 0.8672550518791988], ["2023-02-28", 0.8800000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.8800000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.8800000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.9697335604235977], ["2023-03-01", 0.7833998103403935], ["2023-03-01", 0.79], ["2023-03-01", 0.79], ["2023-03-01", 0.79], ["2023-03-04", 0.4924166510011291], ["2023-03-04", 0.53], ["2023-03-04", 0.53], ["2023-03-04", 0.53], ["2023-03-10", 0.4715856357113173], ["2023-03-16", 0.3905134227492467], ["2023-03-20", 0.2908824746392665], ["2023-03-22", 0.17803104189675098], ["2023-03-24", 0.16180019472333798], ["2023-03-25", 0.14051990483995866], ["2023-03-26", 0.08989521515913798], ["2023-03-28", 0.059705988714494056], ["2023-03-28", 0.07000000000000002], ["2023-03-28", 0.07000000000000002], ["2023-03-28", 0.07000000000000002], ["2023-03-28", 0.1544293307562345], ["2023-03-28", 0.25], ["2023-03-28", 0.25], ["2023-03-28", 0.25], ["2023-03-28", 0.4100000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.5], ["2023-03-28", 0.6000000000000002], ["2023-03-28", 0.6104361220350288], ["2023-03-28", 0.6152148618474256], ["2023-03-28", 0.6566692874856918], ["2023-03-28", 0.7909359739733246], ["2023-03-28", 0.82], ["2023-03-28", 0.82], ["2023-03-28", 0.8678088386543288], ["2023-03-28", 0.8817896970412169], ["2023-03-28", 0.8981296081674758], ["2023-03-28", 0.9346873339025052], ["2023-03-28", 0.9399999999999998], ["2023-03-28", 0.9425025711450613], ["2023-03-28", 0.9425025711450613], ["2023-03-28", 0.9452992475501107], ["2023-03-28", 0.9562345990968825], ["2023-03-29", 0.02757964517571119], ["2023-03-29", 0.02905431858986693], ["2023-03-29", 0.031133124082919298], ["2023-03-29", 0.03544240340205584], ["2023-03-29", 0.04598588862638722], ["2023-03-29", 0.06562437171093129], ["2023-03-29", 0.08080837309241812], ["2023-03-30", 0.052045228102552216], ["2023-03-30", 0.060563194881160354], ["2023-03-31", 0.03997407998622217], ["2023-04-01", 0.027505230015754688]]
|
https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-in-3979a440982f
|
Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison Resolves to YES if criminal charges are brought in the US against anyone for their involvement with FTX or Alameda in relation to the current collapse and fraud case. Feb 22, 7:51pm: Feb 22, 10:17pm: PLEASE READ: Feb 28, 1:34pm: This and related markets are about INDICTMENTS (i.e. by a grand jury), not plea deals with prosecutors.
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will there be at least one other indictment in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of March?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-25
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-21", 0.6473308718587847], ["2023-02-23", 0.6820891642498212], ["2023-02-25", 0.30206214583638186], ["2023-02-25", 0.3304505992416699], ["2023-02-25", 0.33682491249273816], ["2023-02-25", 0.4185463391832277], ["2023-02-25", 0.4185463391832277], ["2023-02-25", 0.4185463391832277], ["2023-02-25", 0.732182792110296], ["2023-02-25", 0.808170794338907], ["2023-02-25", 0.8602961470754077], ["2023-02-25", 0.8799999999999999], ["2023-02-25", 0.8856294237208375], ["2023-02-25", 0.8909114575103544], ["2023-02-25", 0.96], ["2023-02-25", 0.9660922856721749]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-at-least-three-songs-from-the
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-25
|
Will at least three songs from the attached "predictions playlist" be played at the party?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-23
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.6316946970320616], ["2023-02-21", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-02-21", 0.6689733057435213], ["2023-02-21", 0.695844310915206], ["2023-02-21", 0.7046103749569552], ["2023-02-22", 0.87], ["2023-02-22", 0.8980351258786612], ["2023-02-22", 0.8992885121260654], ["2023-02-22", 0.9141080549408769], ["2023-02-22", 0.9141080549408769], ["2023-02-22", 0.9141080549408769], ["2023-02-22", 0.9263789819484114], ["2023-02-22", 0.9299999999999999], ["2023-02-22", 0.9359899002306431], ["2023-02-22", 0.9388695631320055], ["2023-02-23", 0.976088575123897], ["2023-02-23", 0.9790059955491971], ["2023-02-23", 0.9790059955491971], ["2023-02-23", 0.9790059955491971], ["2023-02-23", 0.9992128220515522]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-candace-owens-hat
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-23
|
Will Vaush's video "Candace Owens Hates Trans People More Than Ever" reach 100k views or more by 2/27 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.3088146446839911], ["2023-02-21", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-22", 0.2795781345248918], ["2023-02-25", 0.3375016480331346], ["2023-02-27", 0.3315051373358044], ["2023-02-27", 0.35], ["2023-02-27", 0.35], ["2023-02-27", 0.35], ["2023-02-27", 0.41999999999999993], ["2023-02-27", 0.4328513734435013], ["2023-02-28", 0.25819489350296604], ["2023-02-28", 0.26999999999999996], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.33383637657208814], ["2023-03-01", 0.2830496637323495], ["2023-03-03", 0.3183515217693587], ["2023-03-04", 0.24528761674055988], ["2023-03-04", 0.26000000000000006], ["2023-03-04", 0.39999176902903694], ["2023-03-04", 0.41999999999999993], ["2023-03-04", 0.41999999999999993], ["2023-03-04", 0.41999999999999993], ["2023-03-04", 0.56], ["2023-03-04", 0.56], ["2023-03-04", 0.56], ["2023-03-04", 0.6001209748796216], ["2023-03-04", 0.6001209748796216], ["2023-03-04", 0.6001209748796216], ["2023-03-12", 0.49728458201721004], ["2023-03-12", 0.5807328474292244], ["2023-03-12", 0.6361080696352214], ["2023-03-12", 0.9831441728206284], ["2023-03-13", 0.6686959850544437], ["2023-03-13", 0.9447382792995985], ["2023-03-13", 0.9716059130750434], ["2023-03-13", 0.9721024243811243], ["2023-03-13", 0.9995858926195211]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-oscar-for-best-supporting
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress at the 95th Academy Awards be won by someone for their performance in 'Everything Everywhere All at Once'?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-28
|
2023-02-21
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-21", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-02-21", 0.3539373367947551], ["2023-02-21", 0.4159568490112215], ["2023-02-21", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-02-21", 0.46212379696767475], ["2023-02-21", 0.5], ["2023-02-21", 0.5196962429076478], ["2023-02-21", 0.5242636306851519], ["2023-02-21", 0.5361615287120816], ["2023-02-21", 0.5399999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.5399999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.5399999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.54], ["2023-02-21", 0.54], ["2023-02-21", 0.54], ["2023-02-21", 0.544775463848553], ["2023-02-21", 0.56], ["2023-02-21", 0.56], ["2023-02-21", 0.56], ["2023-02-21", 0.5644116278990684], ["2023-02-21", 0.5660904480544924], ["2023-02-21", 0.5660904480544925], ["2023-02-21", 0.5712474207517797], ["2023-02-21", 0.5878594246641639], ["2023-02-21", 0.5900178301419251], ["2023-02-21", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-02-21", 0.6], ["2023-02-21", 0.613541505642294], ["2023-02-21", 0.62], ["2023-02-21", 0.6211290109798161], ["2023-02-21", 0.63], ["2023-02-21", 0.63], 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0.6489877151480906], ["2023-02-22", 0.6537131169366779], ["2023-02-22", 0.6540947619257425], ["2023-02-22", 0.6590736638061249], ["2023-02-23", 0.5612626960462579], ["2023-02-24", 0.5672278074118358], ["2023-02-25", 0.5729324375883558], ["2023-02-25", 0.5867041620723147], ["2023-02-26", 0.5436411264513843], ["2023-02-26", 0.5792158530214022], ["2023-02-27", 0.5156496091693448], ["2023-02-27", 0.5367017478981557], ["2023-02-27", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-02-27", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-02-27", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.48078162738987423], ["2023-02-28", 0.4872544003075702], ["2023-02-28", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-02-28", 0.512390043791449], ["2023-03-02", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-03-02", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.43461665164333757], ["2023-03-05", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-03-05", 0.4547631351279477], ["2023-03-06", 0.4413519839268457], ["2023-03-06", 0.4413519839268457], ["2023-03-06", 0.4413519839268457], ["2023-03-07", 0.41976163256137383], 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["2023-03-24", 0.34403349651872384], ["2023-03-24", 0.3441075835804916], ["2023-03-24", 0.3441075835804916], ["2023-03-24", 0.3458290781518347], ["2023-03-24", 0.3473050397338166], ["2023-03-24", 0.3516845677578027], ["2023-03-24", 0.3517135721828371], ["2023-03-24", 0.35345705392161575], ["2023-03-24", 0.353486253692628], ["2023-03-24", 0.3552708761943205], ["2023-03-24", 0.35555849826932456], ["2023-03-24", 0.35597369352523406], ["2023-03-24", 0.3570675237001], ["2023-03-24", 0.3575015264882619], ["2023-03-24", 0.36017281819264135], ["2023-03-24", 0.36179128853241127], ["2023-03-24", 0.36296125071686003], ["2023-03-24", 0.3703508678482978], ["2023-03-24", 0.3718525512011872], ["2023-03-24", 0.373761040208116], ["2023-03-24", 0.37410010175375], ["2023-03-24", 0.37589146267336143], ["2023-03-24", 0.37903531945241176], ["2023-03-24", 0.38201770221531195], ["2023-03-24", 0.3831514625349991], ["2023-03-24", 0.3837131550306111], ["2023-03-24", 0.385701667828072], ["2023-03-24", 0.38601653375023487], ["2023-03-24", 0.38768320258657607], ["2023-03-24", 0.3880205802125341], ["2023-03-24", 0.39], ["2023-03-24", 0.39003813839661594], ["2023-03-24", 0.3906310731895798], ["2023-03-24", 0.39266622648922445], ["2023-03-24", 0.3937906985056837], ["2023-03-24", 0.39393124276111247], ["2023-03-24", 0.39393124276111247], ["2023-03-24", 0.39739921576084924], ["2023-03-24", 0.40053911259748753], ["2023-03-24", 0.40155422722600403], ["2023-03-24", 0.4036115597390425], ["2023-03-24", 0.4054668822875179], ["2023-03-24", 0.40680067900779227], ["2023-03-24", 0.40680067900779227], ["2023-03-24", 0.40786859634023487], ["2023-03-24", 0.4108312486075872], ["2023-03-24", 0.41097611429180064], ["2023-03-24", 0.41113987187201073], ["2023-03-24", 0.41113987187201073], ["2023-03-24", 0.41300223543788867], ["2023-03-24", 0.41663720823531025], ["2023-03-24", 0.4176651553815422], ["2023-03-24", 0.427835286895056], ["2023-03-24", 0.432419776419157], ["2023-03-24", 0.4412993324456657], ["2023-03-24", 0.47340628236812193], ["2023-03-24", 0.4875737176198031], ["2023-03-24", 0.49184420980838445], ["2023-03-24", 0.5], ["2023-03-24", 0.5], ["2023-03-24", 0.5], ["2023-03-25", 0.25], ["2023-03-25", 0.2596639616941887], ["2023-03-25", 0.25992398740621964], ["2023-03-25", 0.27166085361673276], ["2023-03-25", 0.2747820765302959], ["2023-03-25", 0.2785945195847159], ["2023-03-25", 0.28366254997845775], ["2023-03-25", 0.29313024794156983], ["2023-03-25", 0.3015163964929207], ["2023-03-25", 0.3015163964929207], ["2023-03-25", 0.30295377584950445], ["2023-03-25", 0.31283627827674754], ["2023-03-25", 0.3160048904244783], ["2023-03-25", 0.317658529023358], ["2023-03-25", 0.3178614493608014], ["2023-03-25", 0.3190819124653182], ["2023-03-25", 0.31940721597621213], ["2023-03-25", 0.32096328124606194], ["2023-03-25", 0.3227548906813614], ["2023-03-25", 0.32615652864320116], ["2023-03-25", 0.3269557536729929], ["2023-03-25", 0.32695575367299295], ["2023-03-25", 0.328562213913939], ["2023-03-25", 0.3359253982080476], ["2023-03-25", 0.35463114519680344], ["2023-03-25", 0.36371446560501713], ["2023-03-25", 0.3828233089085378], ["2023-03-25", 0.39287044943873656], ["2023-03-25", 0.39287044943873656], ["2023-03-25", 0.4607346403939521], ["2023-03-25", 0.473406282368122], ["2023-03-25", 0.5], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25], ["2023-03-26", 0.25110019056679256], ["2023-03-26", 0.25165176463949024], ["2023-03-26", 0.2533044900880536], ["2023-03-26", 0.2536136065020452], ["2023-03-26", 0.2538914903065682], ["2023-03-26", 0.25932122146603526], ["2023-03-26", 0.2597831970071037], ["2023-03-26", 0.26048459937064916], ["2023-03-26", 0.2609495181378938], ["2023-03-26", 0.26641384211625857], ["2023-03-26", 0.2730312411893054], ["2023-03-26", 0.2842681475726282], ["2023-03-26", 0.2859155758997503], ["2023-03-26", 0.28943332022204016], ["2023-03-26", 0.29631270069800253], ["2023-03-26", 0.29631270069800253], ["2023-03-26", 0.303421197850674], ["2023-03-26", 0.3146770692447113], ["2023-03-26", 0.31744598503176336], ["2023-03-26", 0.31836081151873635], ["2023-03-26", 0.3196374647576491], ["2023-03-26", 0.32240211528663093], ["2023-03-26", 0.3343255289299227], ["2023-03-26", 0.33712442564273115], ["2023-03-26", 0.3372021097645184], ["2023-03-26", 0.33879900938051244], ["2023-03-26", 0.34385905544148526], ["2023-03-26", 0.3456908942687431], ["2023-03-26", 0.3490533060806794], ["2023-03-26", 0.3508536057065944], ["2023-03-26", 0.35139307400862635], ["2023-03-26", 0.35350839809666157], ["2023-03-26", 0.35529316978874176], ["2023-03-26", 0.3554723070018705], ["2023-03-26", 0.3627373787131626], ["2023-03-26", 0.3696451003037529], ["2023-03-27", 0.22604475738932883], ["2023-03-27", 0.22700032990904928], ["2023-03-27", 0.23688466029403626], ["2023-03-27", 0.24121190731499637], ["2023-03-27", 0.24739892494751356], ["2023-03-27", 0.2503937484819458], ["2023-03-27", 0.2503937484819458], ["2023-03-27", 0.2503937484819458], ["2023-03-27", 0.2515005410924085], ["2023-03-27", 0.2515005410924085], ["2023-03-27", 0.2515005410924085], ["2023-03-27", 0.2515005410924085], ["2023-03-27", 0.2545160870055547], ["2023-03-27", 0.25736169965983574], ["2023-03-27", 0.2686222188816806], ["2023-03-27", 0.2689882675208155], ["2023-03-27", 0.2692069596264961], ["2023-03-27", 0.2751940119044631], ["2023-03-27", 0.27645930046554856], ["2023-03-27", 0.2777327786487945], ["2023-03-27", 0.2818362259916583], ["2023-03-27", 0.28246369533167254], ["2023-03-27", 0.2857869829255648], ["2023-03-27", 0.28601318820860777], ["2023-03-27", 0.28661311585042953], ["2023-03-27", 0.28661311585042953], ["2023-03-27", 0.28795263456049963], ["2023-03-27", 0.2906579962540703], ["2023-03-27", 0.2907261016282842], ["2023-03-27", 0.2920925237047199], ["2023-03-27", 0.2940897436075985], ["2023-03-27", 0.29598085406888136], ["2023-03-27", 0.30184030015687013], ["2023-03-27", 0.3033520614980708], ["2023-03-27", 0.3048015627019572], ["2023-03-27", 0.31809017473948653], ["2023-03-27", 0.3198355511031865], ["2023-03-27", 0.3213944714781033], ["2023-03-27", 0.3517249094954493], ["2023-03-27", 0.3517249094954493], ["2023-03-27", 0.3549782262006837], ["2023-03-27", 0.35723374216429654], ["2023-03-27", 0.35738126982744883], ["2023-03-27", 0.3591921416022854], ["2023-03-27", 0.3610152220561672], ["2023-03-27", 0.3628505961322519], ["2023-03-27", 0.364698349044066], ["2023-03-27", 0.364698349044066], ["2023-03-27", 0.37], ["2023-03-27", 0.37], ["2023-03-27", 0.37], ["2023-03-27", 0.3758918379627112], ["2023-03-27", 0.41718802008461536], ["2023-03-27", 0.44], ["2023-03-28", 0.22228000914464036], ["2023-03-28", 0.23105221957432187], ["2023-03-28", 0.23137947956304453], ["2023-03-28", 0.23534970839805366], ["2023-03-28", 0.2360447437660552], ["2023-03-28", 0.23706183362203523], ["2023-03-28", 0.24192177008042579], ["2023-03-28", 0.2441477059865837], ["2023-03-28", 0.24628948913158913], ["2023-03-28", 0.2474789308736057], ["2023-03-28", 0.25299011290843915], ["2023-03-28", 0.25411330383311775], ["2023-03-28", 0.2643599483462522], ["2023-03-28", 0.28395754883033164], ["2023-03-28", 0.2975753867918904], ["2023-03-28", 0.31713692605869104], ["2023-03-28", 0.34999407785433034], ["2023-03-28", 0.38], ["2023-03-28", 0.38], ["2023-03-28", 0.4], ["2023-03-28", 0.4], ["2023-03-28", 0.4], ["2023-03-28", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-28", 0.4112120928852222], ["2023-03-28", 0.4417028417211346], ["2023-03-28", 0.46514982243169994], ["2023-03-28", 0.46733404627194863], ["2023-03-28", 0.4702187626886942], ["2023-03-28", 0.4935284468800881], ["2023-03-28", 0.55], ["2023-03-28", 0.5715803116248392], ["2023-03-28", 0.5742560102070842], ["2023-03-28", 0.6647321793564944], ["2023-03-28", 0.7015182816827286], ["2023-03-28", 0.7428854523074485], ["2023-03-28", 0.7536978302431377], ["2023-03-28", 0.755751543318686], ["2023-03-28", 0.7658977422537239], ["2023-03-28", 0.7678250903053687], ["2023-03-28", 0.7773480836478508], ["2023-03-28", 0.7831026968942395], ["2023-03-28", 0.7886797847778698], ["2023-03-28", 0.7903544031065538], ["2023-03-28", 0.8100855531489561], ["2023-03-28", 0.8184682041391477], ["2023-03-28", 0.8188578843487946], ["2023-03-28", 0.8250931390704966], ["2023-03-28", 0.8271090354023413], ["2023-03-28", 0.9073659189002033], ["2023-03-28", 0.9139372508189433], ["2023-03-28", 0.9545984722567061], ["2023-03-28", 0.9780664397455127], ["2023-03-28", 0.9781293430546087], ["2023-03-28", 0.9797206012257883], ["2023-03-28", 0.9797761900342514], ["2023-03-28", 0.9801797465814713]]
|
https://manifold.markets/DanielBalchev/will-cgp-grey-upload-a-video-to-his
|
This market resolves to Yes if a new video is uploaded to
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-28
|
Will CGP Grey upload a video to his main channel before March 31st 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-02-22
|
["https://thestreamerawards.com/about", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg9CH4KlKMc"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.5196003074558031], ["2023-02-22", 0.6052844310745914], ["2023-02-23", 0.3799941904930124], ["2023-02-23", 0.3883266003864781], ["2023-02-23", 0.4101429632969382], ["2023-02-23", 0.42], ["2023-02-23", 0.43], ["2023-02-23", 0.45], ["2023-02-23", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-23", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-23", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-23", 0.47232625990865457], ["2023-02-24", 0.37731937598343185], ["2023-02-24", 0.42], ["2023-02-24", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-24", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-24", 0.45999999999999996], ["2023-02-24", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-02-24", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-02-24", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-02-24", 0.5030205868983336], ["2023-02-27", 0.3932359362035851], ["2023-03-01", 0.33191060785718735], ["2023-03-01", 0.3499999999999999], ["2023-03-03", 0.28157379095431], ["2023-03-03", 0.3100000000000001], ["2023-03-04", 0.36], ["2023-03-04", 0.36], ["2023-03-04", 0.36], ["2023-03-04", 0.37999999999999995], ["2023-03-04", 0.37999999999999995], ["2023-03-04", 0.37999999999999995], ["2023-03-04", 0.4005079206433561], ["2023-03-05", 0.17318566164412366], ["2023-03-05", 0.2137510794038124], ["2023-03-05", 0.2188422902265941], ["2023-03-05", 0.2799999999999998], ["2023-03-05", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-05", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-05", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-05", 0.4600129464185567], ["2023-03-09", 0.2108665175803011], ["2023-03-09", 0.29999999999999993], ["2023-03-10", 0.37], ["2023-03-10", 0.37], ["2023-03-10", 0.37], ["2023-03-10", 0.39740797161259456], ["2023-03-11", 0.2408823223354545], ["2023-03-11", 0.36092834727611595], ["2023-03-12", 0.36244682959256125], ["2023-03-12", 0.3725311530151697], ["2023-03-12", 0.40234898496479815], ["2023-03-12", 0.7356726646631726], ["2023-03-12", 0.9457552267676177], ["2023-03-12", 0.9755696527990391], ["2023-03-12", 0.9887417484048009]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-mogul-chessboxing-champion
|
https://thestreamerawards.com/about https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg9CH4KlKMc
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will the Mogul Chessboxing Championship win 'Best Stream Event' at The Streamer Awards 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-30
|
2023-02-22
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-22", 0.6616514274911444], ["2023-02-23", 0.5868727883587987], ["2023-02-23", 0.5929849892257638], ["2023-02-23", 0.6], ["2023-02-23", 0.6007388902673656], ["2023-02-23", 0.6270535634151924], ["2023-02-28", 0.62], ["2023-02-28", 0.62], ["2023-02-28", 0.62], ["2023-02-28", 0.6226233025771613], ["2023-02-28", 0.643442139187786], ["2023-03-01", 0.68], ["2023-03-01", 0.6965265222810791], ["2023-03-03", 0.6663111230161015], ["2023-03-12", 0.653766149693913], ["2023-03-15", 0.6790021021878418], ["2023-03-16", 0.6898443848092951], ["2023-04-10", 0.48311502307549775], ["2023-04-10", 0.5600000000000002], ["2023-04-11", 0.5572654473338394], ["2023-04-11", 0.5572654473338394], ["2023-04-11", 0.5572654473338394], ["2023-04-11", 0.5600000000000004], ["2023-04-14", 0.40015844915382287], ["2023-04-14", 0.4732946043566673], ["2023-04-18", 0.33811272842270285], ["2023-04-19", 0.32696908791877255], ["2023-04-20", 0.319168671198814], ["2023-04-20", 0.5572654473338394], ["2023-04-20", 0.5572654473338394], ["2023-04-21", 0.3382647603755567], ["2023-04-22", 0.29369286442645354], ["2023-04-30", 0.28562672469811967]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BillSong/will-rocket-die-in-guardians-of-the
|
I wont resolve for a couple days after the movie release to avoid spoilers.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-30
|
Will Rocket die in Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-02-22
|
["https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.38175930284428133], ["2023-02-22", 0.4], ["2023-02-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-22", 0.4831324102790648], ["2023-02-22", 0.54], ["2023-02-22", 0.5476707241726991], ["2023-03-02", 0.43], ["2023-03-02", 0.43], ["2023-03-02", 0.43], ["2023-03-02", 0.44396324082083816], ["2023-03-02", 0.46669110647136497], ["2023-03-04", 0.49732168560757534], ["2023-03-11", 0.4716973686589735], ["2023-03-13", 0.24459807317619495], ["2023-03-13", 0.2986784285800007], ["2023-03-13", 0.30155603513653895], ["2023-03-13", 0.3340435709130827], ["2023-03-13", 0.45749786924630037], ["2023-03-13", 0.4608609329110651], ["2023-03-13", 0.47583763802451595], ["2023-03-13", 0.5369660803111875], ["2023-03-13", 0.5478699691213217], ["2023-03-13", 0.5924959064151871], ["2023-03-13", 0.6197009181311619], ["2023-03-13", 0.6594387226467107], ["2023-03-13", 0.6606502016273876], ["2023-03-13", 0.66327812503205], ["2023-03-13", 0.7257508808633975], ["2023-03-13", 0.7627372189940373], ["2023-03-13", 0.7800000000000001], ["2023-03-13", 0.793103921469617], ["2023-03-13", 0.91], ["2023-03-13", 0.9257864788354633], ["2023-03-13", 0.9297146994070676], ["2023-03-13", 0.97], ["2023-03-13", 0.9795020887649781], ["2023-03-13", 0.9993080930263959]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-whale-win-multiple-oscars
|
'The Whale' has nominations in 3 categories at the 95th Academy Awards. If it wins in at least 2 of them, this market will resolve to YES. Other Oscars markets: https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will 'The Whale' win multiple Oscars at the 95th Academy Awards?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-02-22
|
["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0J0b_OVa9w", "https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-04", 0.3569706065969917], ["2023-03-04", 0.5016844905604264], ["2023-03-13", 0.03397254463553331], ["2023-03-13", 0.5388097093881951], ["2023-03-13", 0.6326482919081325], ["2023-03-13", 0.9519017928537143], ["2023-03-13", 0.9656802301799267], ["2023-03-13", 0.9878533328433682], ["2023-03-13", 0.9995825244885428]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-elephant-whisperers-win-th
|
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0J0b_OVa9w If 'The Elephant Whisperers' wins, resolves YES. Otherwise resolves NO. Other Oscars markets: https://manifold.markets/group/oscars-2023
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will 'The Elephant Whisperers' win the Oscar for Best Documentary Short at the 95th Academy Awards?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-22
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-02-23", 0.6039631564297074], ["2023-02-24", 0.36086422849004524], ["2023-02-24", 0.41800713100883596], ["2023-02-24", 0.4852407502758887], ["2023-02-25", 0.09561186982881639], ["2023-02-25", 0.13883469001481843], ["2023-02-26", 0.03271553261852663], ["2023-02-26", 0.05239430444439541], ["2023-02-28", 5.862343028547116e-05]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-429k
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will Vaush's main channel reach 429k subs by 2/28 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-22
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-22", 0.7278977990917666], ["2023-02-23", 0.49933537625190105], ["2023-02-23", 0.5034311567435332], ["2023-02-23", 0.52], ["2023-02-23", 0.5490388411538011], ["2023-02-23", 0.5542944058224487], ["2023-02-24", 0.15000000000000005], ["2023-02-24", 0.1614237439977994], ["2023-02-24", 0.17], ["2023-02-24", 0.24762254787096735], ["2023-02-24", 0.24921298336847042], ["2023-02-24", 0.28], ["2023-02-24", 0.28], ["2023-02-24", 0.28], ["2023-02-25", 0.08669305674086729], ["2023-02-25", 0.09515749459427367], ["2023-02-28", 0.00034299573062157736], ["2023-02-28", 0.04000000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.04000000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.04000000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.05261106506810061]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-total-alpha-fight
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will Vaush's video "Total Alpha Fights Off Creep At Her Home Gym" reach 60k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-22
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.480005725629766], ["2023-02-23", 0.5561168994829924], ["2023-02-23", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-02-24", 0.5511941360598813], ["2023-02-24", 0.5824594312642061], ["2023-02-24", 0.6368406286225965], ["2023-02-27", 0.5198765372489506], ["2023-02-27", 0.7192435699569677], ["2023-02-28", 1.6927854976535664e-05], ["2023-02-28", 0.02611663889365371], ["2023-02-28", 0.03780004159298174], ["2023-02-28", 0.04951179858179312], ["2023-02-28", 0.09353775089400654], ["2023-02-28", 0.2099999999999999], ["2023-02-28", 0.21628170790703513], ["2023-02-28", 0.4715882953438367], ["2023-02-28", 0.6016830574395844], ["2023-02-28", 0.6016830574395844], ["2023-02-28", 0.6016830574395844]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-insane-fox-news-l
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will Vaush's video "Insane Fox News Leak Reveals Disturbing Lies" reach 125k views or more by 2/28 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-05-01
|
2023-02-22
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-22", 0.28042055098962704], ["2023-02-22", 0.2838899803536346], ["2023-02-22", 0.30999999999999994], ["2023-02-22", 0.3405809281354565], ["2023-02-22", 0.45609443579226694], ["2023-02-22", 0.4995299520685368], ["2023-02-22", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-22", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-02-28", 0.6715372518695174], ["2023-03-07", 0.697764952561722], ["2023-03-07", 0.718779359474149], ["2023-03-11", 0.7741426345917919], ["2023-03-12", 0.7711974728191645], ["2023-03-12", 0.8003086954162387], ["2023-03-12", 0.8025733506891679], ["2023-03-12", 0.8066818399334224], ["2023-03-12", 0.8305661003480268], ["2023-03-12", 0.845874663962762], ["2023-03-12", 0.84917700210488], ["2023-03-12", 0.8892674833943537], ["2023-03-12", 0.892079210841185], ["2023-03-12", 0.91], ["2023-03-12", 0.91], ["2023-03-12", 0.91], ["2023-03-12", 0.9123324428809536], ["2023-03-12", 0.937824799773201], ["2023-03-13", 0.8452569856317412], ["2023-03-13", 0.8481352000480971], ["2023-03-13", 0.8509244910593338], ["2023-03-13", 0.8528923466488058], ["2023-03-13", 0.8615133165745175], ["2023-03-14", 0.8738438235296149], ["2023-03-14", 0.88], ["2023-03-14", 0.8876795641861694], ["2023-03-14", 0.8892556480092024], ["2023-03-14", 0.892883149546792], ["2023-03-14", 0.9334740594146271], ["2023-03-14", 0.9394228038485211], ["2023-03-14", 0.9445092974995984], ["2023-03-14", 0.9489003705538941], ["2023-03-14", 0.9527234213058913], ["2023-03-14", 0.9664951865125194], ["2023-03-14", 0.9792276366004611], ["2023-03-15", 0.9722467866557681], ["2023-03-15", 0.9723968797869861], ["2023-03-15", 0.9733773150350782], ["2023-03-15", 0.9775789860739428], ["2023-03-17", 0.8919102913634954], ["2023-03-17", 0.8919102913634954], ["2023-03-17", 0.8919102913634954], ["2023-03-18", 0.898821619264377], ["2023-03-18", 0.9105116470153513], ["2023-03-18", 0.9287784004145494], ["2023-03-18", 0.932071806647459], ["2023-03-18", 0.9330952108093998], ["2023-03-18", 0.9336869654338286], ["2023-03-18", 0.935102630236471], ["2023-03-18", 0.9404886783824301], ["2023-03-18", 0.952408617719478], ["2023-03-18", 0.96], ["2023-03-18", 0.960627179266213], ["2023-03-21", 0.8278677084216842], ["2023-03-21", 0.851299058459071], ["2023-03-21", 0.8699957678808494], ["2023-03-22", 0.8171460728889418], ["2023-03-22", 0.8188556280075807], ["2023-03-22", 0.8231702439667217], ["2023-03-22", 0.8294617395159373], ["2023-03-22", 0.8309925305794369], ["2023-03-22", 0.8381831805760088], ["2023-03-22", 0.8431290088790392], ["2023-03-22", 0.8431290088790392], ["2023-03-22", 0.8431290088790392], ["2023-03-22", 0.8486400995152351], ["2023-03-22", 0.8505092189276974], ["2023-03-22", 0.8507883842720483], ["2023-03-22", 0.8525368777727214], ["2023-03-22", 0.8544635696668831], ["2023-03-22", 0.8597109038168028], ["2023-03-22", 0.8783058820849233], ["2023-03-22", 0.8885801074180397], ["2023-03-22", 0.8914500111749952], ["2023-03-22", 0.8929056083955145], ["2023-03-22", 0.8953282630288067], ["2023-03-22", 0.8971177618392416], ["2023-03-22", 0.9045076969141875], ["2023-03-22", 0.9158726023080751], ["2023-03-22", 0.9199070427379015], ["2023-03-22", 0.9202913432528272], ["2023-03-22", 0.9217938535819366], ["2023-03-24", 0.7858931768062832], ["2023-03-28", 0.7126547333501422], ["2023-03-28", 0.7150885464946881], ["2023-03-28", 0.72], ["2023-03-28", 0.8038805640190033], ["2023-03-31", 0.7407136724421642], ["2023-04-02", 0.7219450871182194], ["2023-04-02", 0.7245383216215928], ["2023-04-03", 0.7206538631908033], ["2023-04-03", 0.7219450871182194], ["2023-04-04", 0.7051119699512705], ["2023-04-05", 0.6823755880375021], ["2023-04-05", 0.7], ["2023-04-05", 0.74], ["2023-04-05", 0.74], ["2023-04-05", 0.74], ["2023-04-05", 0.7541753976560269], ["2023-04-09", 0.7496778147587684], ["2023-04-09", 0.7630837452466549], ["2023-04-10", 0.60267441810305], ["2023-04-10", 0.62], ["2023-04-10", 0.6376921933234202], ["2023-04-10", 0.6376921933234202], ["2023-04-10", 0.6376921933234202], ["2023-04-11", 0.6699999999999998], ["2023-04-11", 0.6699999999999998], ["2023-04-11", 0.6699999999999998], ["2023-04-11", 0.6699999999999998], ["2023-04-11", 0.6699999999999998], ["2023-04-11", 0.6768506977349144], ["2023-04-12", 0.7277296059969425], ["2023-04-12", 0.7400000000000001], ["2023-04-12", 0.7699999999999999], ["2023-04-12", 0.7699999999999999], ["2023-04-12", 0.7699999999999999], ["2023-04-12", 0.7786173443072807], ["2023-04-13", 0.8600000000000001], ["2023-04-13", 0.8748126449063837], ["2023-04-13", 0.8859333839294234], ["2023-04-18", 0.8944418503136802], ["2023-04-19", 0.916139306251318], ["2023-04-19", 0.9216605924741686], ["2023-04-19", 0.9451102736645977], ["2023-04-19", 0.949654706683811], ["2023-04-19", 0.9510120906009347], ["2023-04-19", 0.9531166057022719], ["2023-04-19", 0.9538334598415158], ["2023-04-19", 0.9539071076629673], ["2023-04-19", 0.9550623454990088], ["2023-04-20", 0.9546447604701253], ["2023-04-20", 0.9558256536855612], ["2023-04-20", 0.9580076541423747], ["2023-04-21", 0.9564785811545516], ["2023-04-21", 0.958181885321244], ["2023-04-23", 0.953890548129922], ["2023-04-24", 0.9496926242617512], ["2023-04-24", 0.9538905481299221], ["2023-04-27", 0.9564148263973404], ["2023-04-29", 0.9560294224287317], ["2023-04-30", 0.9463959231399123], ["2023-04-30", 0.9465290592201727], ["2023-04-30", 0.948841235290865], ["2023-04-30", 0.9532706028283827], ["2023-05-01", 0.9804613438659793]]
|
https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/will-there-be-more-meta-layoffs-by
|
This market resolves positively if Meta leadership announces layoffs of >=5% of workforce. Layoffs must be announced, but do not need to be carried out within this timeframe. If more than one layoff is announced such that each layoff is less than 5%, but together they comprise more than 5%, this DOES fulfill the condition.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-05-01
|
Will there be more Meta layoffs by 2023-04-30?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-02
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-23", 0.4881153226810427], ["2023-02-23", 0.7748417033834591], ["2023-02-23", 0.7748417033834591], ["2023-02-25", 0.7943535861605747], ["2023-03-01", 0.43469336718901125], ["2023-03-01", 0.6922358645306673], ["2023-03-01", 0.71], ["2023-03-02", 0.0001516366728001464], ["2023-03-02", 0.0001516366728001464], ["2023-03-02", 0.0001516366728001464], ["2023-03-02", 0.05018487717664898], ["2023-03-02", 0.1000253657345399], ["2023-03-02", 0.10522405992459594], ["2023-03-02", 0.12], ["2023-03-02", 0.2585147584089176]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-6-mi
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-02
|
Will Vaush's main channel reach 6 million views or more by 3/02 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-01
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-02-23", 0.74293059125964], ["2023-02-26", 0.7719085243447236], ["2023-03-01", 0.0005998899272873583], ["2023-03-01", 0.0005998899272873583], ["2023-03-01", 0.0005998899272873583], ["2023-03-01", 0.014736509933631526], ["2023-03-01", 0.020038582574445966], ["2023-03-01", 0.03344433144161887], ["2023-03-01", 0.03504130107496814]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-conservatives-wan
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-01
|
Will Vaush's video "Conservatives Want You To Stay Depressed (and die)" reach 100k views or more by 3/01 9 A.M.?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.22809147565527627], ["2023-02-23", 0.25569002889399883], ["2023-02-23", 0.25706940874035994], ["2023-02-23", 0.3022116365317095], ["2023-02-26", 0.05000000000000005], ["2023-02-26", 0.10999999999999997], ["2023-02-26", 0.14], ["2023-02-26", 0.23914113945276425], ["2023-02-27", 0.04348068323654687], ["2023-02-27", 0.04348068323654687], ["2023-02-27", 0.04348068323654687], ["2023-02-27", 0.05383554362611408], ["2023-02-27", 0.13496993658333195], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.32], ["2023-02-28", 0.37], ["2023-02-28", 0.37], ["2023-02-28", 0.37], ["2023-02-28", 0.4367179546538335], ["2023-02-28", 0.6800000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.6800000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.6800000000000002], ["2023-02-28", 0.7142778002659377], ["2023-02-28", 0.8689088580244645], ["2023-02-28", 0.8689088580244645], ["2023-02-28", 0.8689088580244645], ["2023-02-28", 0.9386372785824649], ["2023-02-28", 0.9994727785028036], ["2023-02-28", 0.9995943866679701]]
|
https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-gu-d2224a42df42
|
Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison. Resolves to YES if anyone pleads guilty to criminal charges in the US for their involvement with FTX or Alameda, whether the charges are filed by prosecutors or brought by a grand jury
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will there be at least one other guilty plea in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of February?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.35697060659699237], ["2023-02-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-23", 0.4842793096558578], ["2023-02-23", 0.5294981267302615], ["2023-02-25", 0.7018116043197713], ["2023-02-26", 0.7228016513149307], ["2023-02-28", 0.78], ["2023-02-28", 0.7917021479569188], ["2023-02-28", 0.891652573006218], ["2023-02-28", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.9000000000000001], ["2023-02-28", 0.9169278887666737], ["2023-02-28", 0.9275720560625244], ["2023-02-28", 0.9299142215976002], ["2023-02-28", 0.9786103762102345], ["2023-02-28", 0.9819472746004603]]
|
https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-gu-f3a1a9f290e0
|
Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison. If the February market resolves YES, this one automatically resolves YES too. Resolves to YES if anyone pleads guilty to criminal charges in the US for their involvement with FTX or Alameda, whether the charges are filed by prosecutors or brought by a grand jury.
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will there be at least one other guilty plea in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-02
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.32809999298303427], ["2023-02-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-23", 0.49225524678885696], ["2023-02-27", 0.22992087458576232], ["2023-02-28", 0.2138403228445065], ["2023-03-01", 0.17971923052311123], ["2023-03-02", 0.050000000000000086], ["2023-03-02", 0.060857493371939984], ["2023-03-02", 0.1293836696557365], ["2023-03-02", 0.13682245162628454], ["2023-03-02", 0.16273528316320165]]
|
https://manifold.markets/EmilyWang/will-the-hornets-beat-the-suns-on-m
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-02
|
Will the Hornets beat the Suns on March 1st 2023.
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-02-28
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-02-23", 0.8235252274237801], ["2023-02-23", 0.85], ["2023-02-23", 0.8662598447206109], ["2023-02-23", 0.87], ["2023-02-23", 0.9055312944506598], ["2023-02-24", 0.8672905657631872], ["2023-02-28", 0.9286612993478235], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.94], ["2023-02-28", 0.9788385820965995], ["2023-02-28", 0.9816436924924614]]
|
https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-there-be-at-least-one-other-gu
|
Other than SBF, Gary Wang or Caroline Ellison. If the February or March markets resolve YES, this one automatically resolves YES. Resolves to YES if anyone pleads guilty to criminal charges in the US for their involvement with FTX or Alameda, whether the charges are filed by prosecutors or brought by a grand jury.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-28
|
Will there be at least one other guilty plea in the FTX/Alameda debacle before the end of 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-02-23
|
2023-02-23
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-02-23", 0.7641509433962264], ["2023-02-23", 0.7641509433962264], ["2023-02-23", 0.8153442561321079], ["2023-02-23", 0.8313293811518587], ["2023-02-23", 0.8490005771783897], ["2023-02-23", 0.8603676505458219], ["2023-02-23", 0.8803213926761145], ["2023-02-23", 0.8803868149405989], ["2023-02-23", 0.9014392850882187], ["2023-02-23", 0.904736468630768], ["2023-02-23", 0.9087869507676813], ["2023-02-23", 0.91], ["2023-02-23", 0.9109809413577938], ["2023-02-23", 0.9126976428363567], ["2023-02-23", 0.9161088605166626], ["2023-02-23", 0.9161636666963071], ["2023-02-23", 0.9162020495798041], ["2023-02-23", 0.9316920941738894], ["2023-02-23", 0.9395788815085234], ["2023-02-23", 0.94], ["2023-02-23", 0.9511229456296277], ["2023-02-23", 0.9514878378605954], ["2023-02-23", 0.9837501538907242], ["2023-02-23", 0.9874566673759486]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-eobcs-come-out-by-9pm-tonight
|
End of Block Comments (EoBCs) are Proof School grades. Will they come out for Block 3 by 9pm Pacific? Resolves based on me checking and/or credible reports from Proofniks. EoBCs come out for basically everyone at the same time, but if they somehow don't, I'll resolve to the percentage of students whose EoBCs I believe to have been released by 9pm. General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
Education & Research
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-02-23
|
Will EoBCs come out by 9pm tonight?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-04
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.49132152060346185], ["2023-03-03", 0.8], ["2023-03-04", 0.02780824777595499], ["2023-03-04", 0.03091532316015719], ["2023-03-04", 0.060000000000000074], ["2023-03-04", 0.07162598567190294], ["2023-03-04", 0.09165334102002391], ["2023-03-04", 0.09999999999999998], ["2023-03-04", 0.11384045821787965], ["2023-03-04", 0.16043781398592868], ["2023-03-04", 0.2599647049887239], ["2023-03-04", 0.29114224421004964], ["2023-03-04", 0.4046807946964534]]
|
https://manifold.markets/axolotl/will-todays-flight-ua-5940-ase-lax
|
This market resolves YES if the United Airlines flight 5940 from Aspen to Los Angeles does not depart within 90 minutes of 7:13pm MST today (March 3). EDIT: further clarification: I will resolve the market when the outcome is clear from public information. I am betting in this market, but promise not to make use of private information (e.g. announcements in the airport before flightaware updates).
|
Other
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-04
|
Will today's flight UA 5940 (ASE -> LAX) be cancelled or substantially delayed?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-27
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-03", 0.5000000000000001], ["2023-03-04", 0.242034040000167], ["2023-03-04", 0.34079593114926454], ["2023-03-04", 0.3626606775809822], ["2023-03-04", 0.3925176177485123], ["2023-03-04", 0.3963528649645482], ["2023-03-04", 0.3963528649645482], ["2023-03-04", 0.39635286496454825], ["2023-03-04", 0.40222648017270124], ["2023-03-04", 0.4097287005012901], ["2023-03-04", 0.424058613999847], ["2023-03-04", 0.44916357809322655], ["2023-03-04", 0.44916357809322655], ["2023-03-04", 0.4617314625866469], ["2023-03-05", 0.3582814556943738], ["2023-03-05", 0.37378774157905403], ["2023-03-05", 0.3999161843831796], ["2023-03-05", 0.4000683469788602], ["2023-03-05", 0.4006172912710327], ["2023-03-05", 0.4223978309972188], ["2023-03-05", 0.4254223923461978], ["2023-03-06", 0.3790184734425189], ["2023-03-06", 0.3806990148542446], ["2023-03-06", 0.40000000000000013], ["2023-03-12", 0.36565583399844803], ["2023-03-26", 0.37936890099431136], ["2023-03-29", 0.3582683940121912], ["2023-04-14", 0.37053087455463335], ["2023-04-15", 0.37053087455463335], ["2023-04-15", 0.37053087455463335], ["2023-04-20", 0.35201592266270226], ["2023-04-22", 0.04395928574599696], ["2023-04-22", 0.11000000000000003], ["2023-04-22", 0.13226843010583306], ["2023-04-22", 0.1625643439717135], ["2023-04-22", 0.2046459415454148], ["2023-04-22", 0.22], ["2023-04-22", 0.26505529151533586], ["2023-04-27", 0.03193392351271918], ["2023-04-27", 0.05999999999999994]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-mike-pence-announce-he-is-runn
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-27
|
Will Mike Pence announce he is running for president before his subpoena from the Special Council is resolved?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-11
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.5855870450889531], ["2023-03-04", 0.5855870450889525], ["2023-03-04", 0.6003783707630086], ["2023-03-07", 0.5911758838343851], ["2023-03-08", 0.5896408212779382], ["2023-03-09", 0.602418066918533], ["2023-03-11", 0.9893862307127764]]
|
https://manifold.markets/finn/will-it-be-possible-to-run-llama-in
|
Resolves positively if such code is made available (e.g. on GitHub) and there are reports of it working properly on M1 Pro chips. It's fine if it only works for the 7B model.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-11
|
Will it be possible to run LLaMA inference code on Apple M1 Pro chips before April 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.3154565369326269], ["2023-03-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-04", 0.29999999999999993], ["2023-03-05", 0.19824992080515602], ["2023-03-05", 0.2800000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.3], ["2023-03-13", 0.210726383966494], ["2023-03-19", 0.24888265188865993], ["2023-03-20", 0.1998064249337379], ["2023-03-21", 0.14646465582095625], ["2023-03-23", 0.129442229119011], ["2023-03-24", 0.12020015851820971], ["2023-03-25", 0.07999999999999999], ["2023-03-25", 0.0912182010795258], ["2023-03-26", 0.04065772930070031], ["2023-03-26", 0.07694065230334317], ["2023-03-26", 0.0784011856159442], ["2023-03-26", 0.08000000000000002], ["2023-03-26", 0.08000000000000002], ["2023-03-26", 0.08000000000000002], ["2023-03-27", 0.07951380396370641], ["2023-03-29", 0.05005426032811513], ["2023-03-30", 0.04702494680633884], ["2023-03-31", 0.04184516137624509], ["2023-04-01", 0.04179845561862086]]
|
https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-meta-publicly-release-llama-by
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will Meta publicly release LLaMA by the end of March?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-05", 0.25262732417138245], ["2023-03-23", 0.09671671759881591], ["2023-04-01", 7.941587640868294e-06]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-side-channel-reach-127k
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will Vaush's side channel reach 127k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-19
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-05", 0.2962664515304796], ["2023-03-05", 0.337837837837838], ["2023-03-06", 0.4665919748516012], ["2023-03-06", 0.5237469488898675], ["2023-03-06", 0.5750142849968857], ["2023-03-12", 0.7537900601069063], ["2023-03-12", 0.8712231909138605], ["2023-03-12", 0.8984403759007411], ["2023-03-19", 0.3297284701054834], ["2023-03-19", 0.9999630275241566], ["2023-03-19", 0.9999630275241566], ["2023-03-19", 0.9999630275241566]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-430k
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-19
|
Will Vaush's main channel reach 430k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-16
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.4555024698356143], ["2023-03-05", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-03-15", 0.8092831453702368], ["2023-03-15", 0.896898859171124], ["2023-03-16", 0.999819531945409]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-side-channel-reach-125k
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-16
|
Will Vaush's side channel reach 125k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-04
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://www.strade-bianche.it/en/"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.2626113446111168], ["2023-03-03", 0.281858815545821], ["2023-03-03", 0.31856197934087666], ["2023-03-03", 0.3557056367644245], ["2023-03-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-03", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-04", 0.005176424468542159], ["2023-03-04", 0.009902010767674838], ["2023-03-04", 0.021739210180370266], ["2023-03-04", 0.05774237730048712], ["2023-03-04", 0.09510724952517946], ["2023-03-04", 0.14427322611451743], ["2023-03-04", 0.2833387561149372]]
|
https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-win-strad
|
https://www.strade-bianche.it/en/
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-04
|
Will Mathieu van der Poel win Strade Bianche 2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-17
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.2271993305971789], ["2023-03-03", 0.25], ["2023-03-03", 0.2700000000000001], ["2023-03-03", 0.2808988764044944], ["2023-03-04", 0.22756881280695826], ["2023-03-04", 0.2499999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.25], ["2023-03-06", 0.24], ["2023-03-06", 0.24], ["2023-03-06", 0.24], ["2023-03-06", 0.27], ["2023-03-09", 0.217730770274295], ["2023-03-10", 0.24791156278713994], ["2023-03-10", 0.24791156278713994], ["2023-03-10", 0.24791156278713994], ["2023-03-11", 0.23999999999999996], ["2023-03-13", 0.26], ["2023-03-13", 0.26], ["2023-03-13", 0.26], ["2023-03-16", 0.005553440016845715], ["2023-03-16", 0.05854634795263822], ["2023-03-16", 0.07978054339935098], ["2023-03-16", 0.1482406068221376], ["2023-03-16", 0.1671810378229516], ["2023-03-16", 0.17858327570422594], ["2023-03-16", 0.1982951646764338], ["2023-03-16", 0.21521391381809027], ["2023-03-16", 0.2201542242201602], ["2023-03-16", 0.2201542242201602], ["2023-03-16", 0.2201542242201602], ["2023-03-16", 0.29622878915623324], ["2023-03-17", 0.0010779984245626207]]
|
https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-arsenal-win-the-202223-uefa-eu
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-17
|
Will Arsenal win the 2022-23 UEFA Europa League?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-30
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.33361010616214937], ["2023-03-05", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-03-06", 0.5599999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.6259936954355158], ["2023-03-30", 0.8900000000000001], ["2023-03-30", 0.9099999999999999], ["2023-03-30", 0.9628770196382402], ["2023-03-30", 0.9694481984692418], ["2023-03-30", 0.9985858094711572], ["2023-03-30", 0.9997597299973162]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-side-channel-reach-126k
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-30
|
Will Vaush's side channel reach 126k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.34662171567174677], ["2023-03-05", 0.5033444441958792], ["2023-03-06", 0.5316145719143212], ["2023-03-06", 0.7496018896554981], ["2023-03-06", 0.8268707364786789], ["2023-03-06", 0.83], ["2023-03-06", 0.83], ["2023-03-06", 0.83], ["2023-03-06", 0.84], ["2023-03-06", 0.8682848751262927], ["2023-03-07", 0.8769720244531309], ["2023-03-07", 0.8965097122162268], ["2023-03-12", 0.9924891638477308], ["2023-03-12", 0.9998657910283717]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-channel-reach-429k-6abc6ffed0be
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Vaush's main channel reach 429k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-06
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-06", 0.7386576086343216], ["2023-03-06", 0.7681202102406958], ["2023-03-06", 0.9943224465886269], ["2023-03-06", 0.9999064596829246]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-main-reach-428k-subscri
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UC1E-JS8L0j1Ei70D9VEFrPQ Mar 3, 7:57am:
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-06
|
Will Vaush's main channel reach 428k subscribers in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.5475113122171945], ["2023-03-03", 0.6230308337889958], ["2023-03-03", 0.7011868339030161], ["2023-03-04", 0.4996014728992526], ["2023-03-04", 0.5200000000000002], ["2023-03-04", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6205171556497415], ["2023-03-04", 0.6438910999799734], ["2023-03-05", 0.55], ["2023-03-05", 0.6126303066339638], ["2023-03-05", 0.6555746859550009], ["2023-03-05", 0.6603432557625731], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.8491832964356681], ["2023-03-05", 0.86], ["2023-03-05", 0.86], ["2023-03-05", 0.86], ["2023-03-05", 0.86], ["2023-03-05", 0.8883317071528245], ["2023-03-05", 0.8952172619405516], ["2023-03-05", 0.8979723598661802], ["2023-03-05", 0.9102054749029951], ["2023-03-05", 0.92]]
|
https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/ufc-285-will-jon-jones-261-1nc-beat
|
YES = Win Must Be From Either Of The Following: KO, Submission, Opponent DQ, Ref/Medical Stoppage, Judge Scorecard(ie. Split Decision). NO= Loss Must Be From Either Of The Following: KO, Submission, Opponent DQ, Ref/Medical Stoppage, Judge Scorecard(ie. Split Decision). N/A= Draw, No Contest (NC), Either Fighter Withdraws Prior To Fight Fight Card Starts At 10pm EST 03/04/2023 Predictions Kept Open Until Fight Ends & Resolves When Fight Is Over. DISCLOSURE: I will not make predictions on markets I create.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
UFC 285: Will Jon Jones (26-1, 1NC) Beat Ciryl Gane (11-1)
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.5334180763426917], ["2023-03-03", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-03", 0.6529633328747247], ["2023-03-03", 0.7123807214857941], ["2023-03-04", 0.4857395755578261], ["2023-03-04", 0.66], ["2023-03-04", 0.6868962013235924], ["2023-03-04", 0.6868962013235924], ["2023-03-04", 0.6868962013235924], ["2023-03-04", 0.7399999999999998], ["2023-03-04", 0.7535002122052956], ["2023-03-04", 0.8], ["2023-03-04", 0.8197826554789632], ["2023-03-08", 0.7445005633240821], ["2023-03-13", 0.7762854384075124], ["2023-03-13", 0.932400824278996], ["2023-03-13", 0.9422452963306711], ["2023-03-13", 0.9730810680890267], ["2023-03-13", 0.9987072563887784]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-james-friend-win-the-oscar-for
|
If James Friend wins the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on 'All Quiet on the Western Front' at the 95th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will James Friend win the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on 'All Quiet on the Western Front'?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-03-03
|
["https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.19993699532344444], ["2023-03-03", 0.21], ["2023-03-03", 0.21413053099947485], ["2023-03-03", 0.22307014287276908], ["2023-03-03", 0.24956269009113385], ["2023-03-03", 0.25337503611940626], ["2023-03-03", 0.27], ["2023-03-03", 0.2711225540726195], ["2023-03-03", 0.2767437800307846], ["2023-03-03", 0.29], ["2023-03-03", 0.30769230769230776], ["2023-03-03", 0.35299523769738494], ["2023-03-03", 0.36298847271317936], ["2023-03-03", 0.38999999999999996], ["2023-03-03", 0.38999999999999996], ["2023-03-03", 0.38999999999999996], ["2023-03-03", 0.39827578463962676], ["2023-03-03", 0.4148819913621148], ["2023-03-03", 0.4153294768037685], ["2023-03-03", 0.42893401015228433], ["2023-03-03", 0.5007219183802548], ["2023-03-04", 0.2012162779740498], ["2023-03-04", 0.24956269009113385], ["2023-03-04", 0.26], ["2023-03-04", 0.26], ["2023-03-04", 0.26], ["2023-03-04", 0.2611754696854674], ["2023-03-04", 0.27142396092141524], ["2023-03-04", 0.2741290142595257], ["2023-03-04", 0.2741290142595257], ["2023-03-04", 0.2741290142595257], ["2023-03-04", 0.29186459108251567], ["2023-03-04", 0.29740046376191565], ["2023-03-04", 0.29740046376191565], ["2023-03-04", 0.2974004637619157], ["2023-03-04", 0.2974004637619157], ["2023-03-04", 0.2974004637619157], ["2023-03-04", 0.3], ["2023-03-04", 0.4599999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.4599999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.4599999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.47836489493090856], ["2023-03-05", 0.2977558215623622], ["2023-03-05", 0.2977558215623622], ["2023-03-05", 0.2977558215623622], ["2023-03-06", 0.26357793209874375], ["2023-03-06", 0.28564276924722276], ["2023-03-06", 0.31], ["2023-03-06", 0.31], ["2023-03-06", 0.31], ["2023-03-06", 0.3277396140878157], ["2023-03-06", 0.4], ["2023-03-06", 0.4], ["2023-03-06", 0.4], ["2023-03-06", 0.40575319907622276], ["2023-03-08", 0.4952761489889801], ["2023-03-08", 0.5087541906217813], ["2023-03-08", 0.5087541906217813], ["2023-03-08", 0.5087541906217813], ["2023-03-09", 0.5497420756406404], ["2023-03-09", 0.5497420756406404], ["2023-03-09", 0.5497420756406404], ["2023-03-10", 0.5624862769376678], ["2023-03-10", 0.5994818018619424], ["2023-03-10", 0.6179972155200981], ["2023-03-10", 0.6179972155200981], ["2023-03-10", 0.6179972155200981], ["2023-03-11", 0.4098794008540243], ["2023-03-11", 0.47], ["2023-03-11", 0.5071370531589741], ["2023-03-11", 0.5215755252942287], ["2023-03-11", 0.5313359011132565], ["2023-03-11", 0.5454788932279222], ["2023-03-11", 0.5490439170679731], ["2023-03-11", 0.5490439170679731], ["2023-03-11", 0.5490439170679731], ["2023-03-11", 0.589232676784543], ["2023-03-11", 0.589232676784543], ["2023-03-11", 0.589232676784543], ["2023-03-11", 0.5918231718608947], ["2023-03-11", 0.599111520147527], ["2023-03-11", 0.6031048312889178], ["2023-03-11", 0.61233737805834], ["2023-03-11", 0.6311417734185397], ["2023-03-11", 0.6311417734185397], ["2023-03-11", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-11", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-11", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-11", 0.6404788426544673], ["2023-03-11", 0.6565529697246969], ["2023-03-12", 0.5030480263755326], ["2023-03-12", 0.52], ["2023-03-12", 0.5404425824114633], ["2023-03-12", 0.55], ["2023-03-12", 0.5742334359293448], ["2023-03-12", 0.5751467907863247], ["2023-03-12", 0.5832764145269663], ["2023-03-12", 0.5867915162215602], ["2023-03-12", 0.5990607583985988], ["2023-03-12", 0.5990607583985988], ["2023-03-12", 0.5990607583985988], ["2023-03-12", 0.6041408818217798], ["2023-03-12", 0.6115505434892967], ["2023-03-12", 0.6116422383147065], ["2023-03-12", 0.6166753620304464], ["2023-03-12", 0.6247909711594204], ["2023-03-12", 0.6247909711594204], ["2023-03-12", 0.6247909711594204], ["2023-03-12", 0.63], ["2023-03-12", 0.63], ["2023-03-12", 0.63], ["2023-03-12", 0.7202029933893233], ["2023-03-12", 0.7202029933893234], ["2023-03-12", 0.7202029933893234], ["2023-03-12", 0.7202029933893234], ["2023-03-12", 0.7264383324442404], ["2023-03-12", 0.7477647506772509], 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0.9733492591693141], ["2023-03-31", 0.9733492591693141], ["2023-03-31", 0.9733492591693141], ["2023-03-31", 0.9744008254828966], ["2023-03-31", 0.9745123184269848], ["2023-04-01", 0.9754902494506273], ["2023-04-01", 0.9758025561550435], ["2023-04-01", 0.9758025561550435], ["2023-04-01", 0.9758025561550435], ["2023-04-01", 0.9980452786267879]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-ukrainian-army-successfull
|
https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/status/1631011297335599104
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will the Ukrainian army successfully maintain defending Bakhmut against the invading Russians in March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-03
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-03", 0.37530898653692985], ["2023-03-03", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-04", 0.33768150438814587], ["2023-03-04", 0.4331849778201242], ["2023-03-04", 0.45], ["2023-03-04", 0.45], ["2023-03-04", 0.47], ["2023-03-04", 0.47441852597564727], ["2023-03-04", 0.49025770182966893], ["2023-03-04", 0.4985908872994776], ["2023-03-04", 0.5038885147037602], ["2023-03-04", 0.51], ["2023-03-04", 0.51], ["2023-03-04", 0.513161597062262], ["2023-03-04", 0.5279617160269836], ["2023-03-04", 0.54], ["2023-03-04", 0.54], ["2023-03-04", 0.54], ["2023-03-04", 0.5463522680013518], ["2023-03-04", 0.5800698493085147], ["2023-03-04", 0.5920095558519337], ["2023-03-04", 0.6112008048852122], ["2023-03-04", 0.6398453922389216], ["2023-03-04", 0.6661371927921849], ["2023-03-04", 0.6800000000000002], ["2023-03-04", 0.6902287233760054], ["2023-03-04", 0.7122808733717146], ["2023-03-04", 0.73], ["2023-03-04", 0.732455439679638], ["2023-03-04", 0.74], ["2023-03-04", 0.7475077768947539], ["2023-03-04", 0.7509100729884899], ["2023-03-05", 0.33481399575389226], ["2023-03-05", 0.3441443951580528], ["2023-03-05", 0.3720247075243832], ["2023-03-05", 0.39], ["2023-03-05", 0.39], ["2023-03-05", 0.39]]
|
https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-lewis-hamilton-finish-on-podiu
|
*Will Close At Race Start [Estimated 10am EST (03/05/2023)] *Will Resolve At Race End [Estimated To Be By 12pm EST (03/05/2023)] *Podium = Top 3 Finish *If Race Ends Under A Red Flag (Race Suspended/Halted) Without Completing Full Distance Than This Will Resolve As N/A Regardless Of Podium. DISCLOSURE: I will not make predictions on markets I create.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
Will Lewis Hamilton Finish On Podium Of The Formula 1 2023 Bahrain Grand Prix On 03/05/2023?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-03-04
|
["https://www.tirrenoadriatico.it/en/"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.6621621621621621], ["2023-03-05", 0.2924527918555074], ["2023-03-05", 0.3005254674211474], ["2023-03-05", 0.3032564089999564], ["2023-03-05", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.33331065913883406], ["2023-03-05", 0.3626398899254295], ["2023-03-05", 0.4752010717011685], ["2023-03-05", 0.56], ["2023-03-05", 0.5723672404576365], ["2023-03-06", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-03-06", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-03-06", 0.34000000000000014], ["2023-03-06", 0.35245895569669905], ["2023-03-06", 0.38858652859744813], ["2023-03-06", 0.3901507366342166], ["2023-03-06", 0.40000000000000013], ["2023-03-06", 0.42437876305095434], ["2023-03-06", 0.43560704833988784], ["2023-03-06", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-03-06", 0.5226142607636576], ["2023-03-07", 0.3369192049964565], ["2023-03-07", 0.3484569757135589], ["2023-03-07", 0.3599999999999999], ["2023-03-08", 0.2720030811508392], ["2023-03-09", 0.4937556764365199], ["2023-03-09", 0.55], ["2023-03-09", 0.55], ["2023-03-09", 0.55], ["2023-03-09", 0.5818793321165331], ["2023-03-09", 0.6121189462935848], ["2023-03-09", 0.6392196296323606], ["2023-03-09", 0.6392196296323606], ["2023-03-09", 0.6392196296323606], ["2023-03-09", 0.6652428331875807], ["2023-03-09", 0.7121193366504742], ["2023-03-10", 0.6416576833573766], ["2023-03-10", 0.6913727078386853], ["2023-03-10", 0.6996045968567063], ["2023-03-10", 0.7132795370267562], ["2023-03-10", 0.8495044563603849], ["2023-03-10", 0.8528319297780753], ["2023-03-10", 0.8750498759531409], ["2023-03-11", 0.7990972992666727], ["2023-03-11", 0.8989391534877316], ["2023-03-11", 0.9546562259608217], ["2023-03-11", 0.9729769311746219], ["2023-03-12", 0.9997940497864661]]
|
https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-primoz-roglic-win-tirrenoadria
|
https://www.tirrenoadriatico.it/en/
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Primož Roglič win Tirreno-Adriatico 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-12
|
2023-03-04
|
["https://www.paris-nice.fr/en/"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-05", 0.40122563756832474], ["2023-03-05", 0.425109621461444], ["2023-03-05", 0.43718951843528825], ["2023-03-05", 0.4499999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.45], ["2023-03-05", 0.45], ["2023-03-05", 0.45], ["2023-03-05", 0.45073535728252717], ["2023-03-05", 0.4627329450338012], ["2023-03-05", 0.47], ["2023-03-05", 0.47], ["2023-03-05", 0.47], ["2023-03-05", 0.47462397137063095], ["2023-03-05", 0.47697231183927846], ["2023-03-05", 0.48], ["2023-03-05", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-03-05", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-03-05", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-03-05", 0.49000000000000005], ["2023-03-05", 0.49969724148355127], ["2023-03-05", 0.5081852964823876], ["2023-03-05", 0.52], ["2023-03-05", 0.52], ["2023-03-05", 0.52], ["2023-03-05", 0.5299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.5472860011032575], ["2023-03-05", 0.55], ["2023-03-05", 0.5715670633737118], ["2023-03-05", 0.583874808211522], ["2023-03-05", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-03-05", 0.7429305912596401], ["2023-03-06", 0.5500000000000002], ["2023-03-06", 0.5500000000000006], ["2023-03-06", 0.56], ["2023-03-06", 0.56], ["2023-03-06", 0.56], ["2023-03-06", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.6100000000000001], ["2023-03-06", 0.6248374461716338], ["2023-03-06", 0.6291497451755798], ["2023-03-06", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-06", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-06", 0.6400000000000001], ["2023-03-06", 0.6599999999999997], ["2023-03-06", 0.6599999999999997], ["2023-03-06", 0.6599999999999997], ["2023-03-06", 0.68], ["2023-03-06", 0.6950848319154417], ["2023-03-06", 0.7023495455642288], ["2023-03-07", 0.40086849029554367], ["2023-03-07", 0.40086849029554367], ["2023-03-07", 0.40086849029554367], ["2023-03-07", 0.438416707460756], ["2023-03-07", 0.45638828617995364], ["2023-03-07", 0.45638828617995364], ["2023-03-07", 0.45638828617995364], ["2023-03-07", 0.45808997930019996], ["2023-03-07", 0.49920446041795874], ["2023-03-07", 0.5139693392213867], ["2023-03-07", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-07", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-07", 0.6079610420929888], ["2023-03-08", 0.6022354491000731], ["2023-03-08", 0.701913327521842], ["2023-03-08", 0.7534922162959055], ["2023-03-08", 0.8621343561652444], ["2023-03-08", 0.8742917284621627], ["2023-03-08", 0.885973263046326], ["2023-03-09", 0.8655817577656689], ["2023-03-09", 0.8824184702576818], ["2023-03-09", 0.8897891156873999], ["2023-03-09", 0.9002598758418926], ["2023-03-09", 0.9133138739648102], ["2023-03-10", 0.8739775382894222], ["2023-03-10", 0.8856695118069919], ["2023-03-11", 0.8996993461207752], ["2023-03-11", 0.9043249189565874], ["2023-03-11", 0.9144218889239157], ["2023-03-11", 0.9235729166755721], ["2023-03-11", 0.9248883753794002], ["2023-03-11", 0.9405038278855045], ["2023-03-11", 0.95], ["2023-03-11", 0.967582842868779], ["2023-03-12", 0.9341804831538354], ["2023-03-12", 0.9463926539978933], ["2023-03-12", 0.9560397410274628], ["2023-03-12", 0.9644971722294625], ["2023-03-12", 0.9981033195608068], ["2023-03-12", 0.9989759886582612]]
|
https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-tadej-pogacar-win-parisnice-20
|
https://www.paris-nice.fr/en/
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-12
|
Will Tadej Pogačar win Paris-Nice 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-08
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-04", 0.42350630614492346], ["2023-03-04", 0.5017842351289818], ["2023-03-05", 0.10882805271860346], ["2023-03-05", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-05", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-05", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-05", 0.25034779257652123], ["2023-03-05", 0.2540097169574508], ["2023-03-05", 0.27331230766119574], ["2023-03-05", 0.28], ["2023-03-05", 0.28], ["2023-03-05", 0.28], ["2023-03-05", 0.35], ["2023-03-05", 0.5013565580480075], ["2023-03-05", 0.5032180020995328], ["2023-03-05", 0.5299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.5355555520262085], ["2023-03-05", 0.5426416871929649], ["2023-03-05", 0.6410091242512217], ["2023-03-06", 0.1899999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.1899999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.1899999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.2051223850698879], ["2023-03-07", 0.4822469785488969], ["2023-03-07", 0.6884764209935609], ["2023-03-08", 0.74510235584739], ["2023-03-08", 0.9797505450838926], ["2023-03-08", 0.9998037220990624]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-andrew-tate-the-a
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Social Sciences
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-08
|
Will Vaush's video "Andrew Tate & The Alt-Right Pipeline" reach 80k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-14
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-05", 0.4865997175639483], ["2023-03-05", 0.49797806565627933], ["2023-03-05", 0.5270689695041824], ["2023-03-05", 0.53], ["2023-03-05", 0.53], ["2023-03-05", 0.53], ["2023-03-05", 0.58], ["2023-03-05", 0.5994667755704131], ["2023-03-05", 0.6241267014809286], ["2023-03-05", 0.6621128272205139], ["2023-03-05", 0.6712413301678354], ["2023-03-05", 0.69], ["2023-03-05", 0.6967946512225133], ["2023-03-05", 0.6999999999999997], ["2023-03-05", 0.7], ["2023-03-05", 0.7], ["2023-03-05", 0.7000000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.7063716642989687], ["2023-03-05", 0.7116852842706407], ["2023-03-05", 0.7169195439383229], ["2023-03-05", 0.73], ["2023-03-05", 0.73], ["2023-03-05", 0.73], ["2023-03-05", 0.7385387115253627], ["2023-03-05", 0.749727700952037], ["2023-03-05", 0.76], ["2023-03-05", 0.76], ["2023-03-05", 0.76], ["2023-03-05", 0.7714514118921216], ["2023-03-05", 0.7809871448887037], ["2023-03-06", 0.5873083819855374], ["2023-03-06", 0.5996486381782595], ["2023-03-06", 0.62], ["2023-03-06", 0.6213834436145083], ["2023-03-06", 0.6339347973098026], ["2023-03-09", 0.7430717834221608], ["2023-03-09", 0.7999834926812162], ["2023-03-09", 0.8018516185226588], ["2023-03-09", 0.8226123548892903], ["2023-03-09", 0.8397560036015289], ["2023-03-09", 0.8402066161850991], ["2023-03-09", 0.85383709047793], ["2023-03-09", 0.8612398024972842], ["2023-03-09", 0.8800220642134675], ["2023-03-09", 0.8835493570635953], ["2023-03-09", 0.8851871830222342], ["2023-03-09", 0.8902118958693579], ["2023-03-09", 0.8926563441723341], ["2023-03-09", 0.8967473666116793], ["2023-03-09", 0.8967473666116793], ["2023-03-09", 0.8977799445500129], ["2023-03-09", 0.9045356708722815], ["2023-03-09", 0.9105939026758], ["2023-03-09", 0.9160497527354541], ["2023-03-09", 0.92], ["2023-03-09", 0.92], ["2023-03-10", 0.81694175993958], ["2023-03-10", 0.8241892954115313], ["2023-03-10", 0.8255479230284954], ["2023-03-10", 0.8320313406979657], ["2023-03-10", 0.8612123545819328], ["2023-03-10", 0.8673465470274057], ["2023-03-10", 0.8682243529400838], ["2023-03-10", 0.8682243529400838], ["2023-03-10", 0.8682243529400838], ["2023-03-10", 0.8714038450969347], ["2023-03-10", 0.872338522736558], ["2023-03-10", 0.8730491635982326], ["2023-03-10", 0.8730491635982326], ["2023-03-10", 0.8765195302349883], ["2023-03-10", 0.8940443957145444], ["2023-03-10", 0.8946574896451679], ["2023-03-10", 0.9042078907455896], ["2023-03-10", 0.9047572598695984], ["2023-03-10", 0.9090269312997229], ["2023-03-10", 0.9099361699984867], ["2023-03-10", 0.9103620521498393], ["2023-03-10", 0.9103620521498393], ["2023-03-10", 0.9103620521498393], ["2023-03-10", 0.9104243981554695], ["2023-03-10", 0.9127421232239704], ["2023-03-10", 0.917270335499409], ["2023-03-10", 0.92], ["2023-03-10", 0.923106416538369], ["2023-03-11", 0.8332416418664661], ["2023-03-11", 0.835276621647941], ["2023-03-11", 0.8378592502516164], ["2023-03-11", 0.8515888189515723], ["2023-03-11", 0.8515888189515723], ["2023-03-11", 0.8515888189515723], ["2023-03-11", 0.8525158000219054], ["2023-03-11", 0.861390434273281], ["2023-03-11", 0.8662785397462581], ["2023-03-11", 0.8662785397462581], ["2023-03-11", 0.8748632009930618], ["2023-03-11", 0.8762947305782589], ["2023-03-11", 0.8791423307907265], ["2023-03-11", 0.8848545039512424], ["2023-03-11", 0.8854694574635619], ["2023-03-12", 0.844083630757539], ["2023-03-12", 0.852189559464934], ["2023-03-12", 0.8603771093272288], ["2023-03-12", 0.8603771093272288], ["2023-03-12", 0.893247884425447], ["2023-03-12", 0.8955466233763064], ["2023-03-13", 0.8960402076304717], ["2023-03-13", 0.9041932112876255], ["2023-03-13", 0.9290058544043112], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403638], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-13", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-13", 0.9348022293053077], ["2023-03-13", 0.9375328500142979], ["2023-03-13", 0.9513075321160996], ["2023-03-14", 0.885308222223794], ["2023-03-14", 0.8876375050670964], ["2023-03-14", 0.8927979551955701], ["2023-03-14", 0.8952250486182409], ["2023-03-14", 0.8998006777996176], ["2023-03-14", 0.902465091915507], ["2023-03-14", 0.9040782308977606], ["2023-03-14", 0.9080078368062855], ["2023-03-14", 0.9116635855629825], ["2023-03-14", 0.920770691037151], ["2023-03-14", 0.9236418180629149], ["2023-03-14", 0.925953546849424], ["2023-03-14", 0.9260394817988901], ["2023-03-14", 0.9292084386482163], ["2023-03-14", 0.9314181156403639], ["2023-03-14", 0.9457349655983874], ["2023-03-14", 0.9595789797374026], ["2023-03-14", 0.9601067647588337], ["2023-03-14", 0.9673880102830653], ["2023-03-14", 0.967986978943053], ["2023-03-14", 0.9725511052851805], ["2023-03-14", 0.9729927642982465], ["2023-03-14", 0.9734219914196435], ["2023-03-14", 0.9738392821951513], ["2023-03-14", 0.9742451067723866], ["2023-03-14", 0.9742653864526701], ["2023-03-14", 0.9746399114841989], ["2023-03-14", 0.9746596438906401], ["2023-03-14", 0.9750241203162462], ["2023-03-14", 0.9757805547132725], ["2023-03-14", 0.9820289107850919], ["2023-03-14", 0.9840325126284408], ["2023-03-14", 0.9929750664302531], ["2023-03-14", 0.9938336831719101], ["2023-03-14", 0.9940084405168635], ["2023-03-14", 0.9942116395685778], ["2023-03-14", 0.9942391433178782], ["2023-03-14", 0.9944314810370157], ["2023-03-14", 0.9948979459709659], ["2023-03-14", 0.9949190533934433], ["2023-03-14", 0.9949348456189064], ["2023-03-14", 0.9949432468475272], ["2023-03-14", 0.9952804222332173], ["2023-03-14", 0.9952918122653224], ["2023-03-14", 0.9953378494417633], ["2023-03-14", 0.9963289107812776], ["2023-03-14", 0.9963404359663715], ["2023-03-14", 0.9963673326808035], ["2023-03-14", 0.9963893601492254]]
|
https://manifold.markets/AlexLiesman/will-gpt4-be-released-before-may-1s
|
Will resolve with the same criteria as: "Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts. Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count. Any release before the end of before May 1st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.) Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count. Resolution based on my best judgment."
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-14
|
Will GPT-4 be released before May 1st, 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-27
|
2023-03-04
|
["https://youtu.be/Mimf6cBSVGk"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-05", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-05", 0.47724055971346835], ["2023-03-05", 0.5], ["2023-03-05", 0.5062012472856033], ["2023-03-05", 0.5299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.5299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.5299999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.5309485135082105], ["2023-03-05", 0.5376193369289678], ["2023-03-05", 0.5650763276295597], ["2023-03-05", 0.5990781751245645], ["2023-03-05", 0.6099999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.6853342246679041], ["2023-03-12", 0.7500000000000001], ["2023-03-12", 0.7692961197188292], ["2023-03-12", 0.7993563617620278], ["2023-03-13", 0.7779816656270142], ["2023-03-13", 0.86], ["2023-03-13", 0.8841875598382115], ["2023-03-25", 0.8919806397837633], ["2023-03-25", 0.9], ["2023-03-25", 0.9106245513797413], ["2023-03-25", 0.913917281253363], ["2023-03-25", 0.9195889416780938], ["2023-03-26", 0.923596866454993], ["2023-03-26", 0.9306594878701994], ["2023-03-26", 0.9799822328062151], ["2023-03-27", 0.9807679787218428], ["2023-03-27", 0.982227136446157], ["2023-03-27", 0.9838765356401609], ["2023-03-27", 0.9839695508610276], ["2023-03-27", 0.9839721984407973], ["2023-03-27", 0.9840595279250226], ["2023-03-27", 0.9847937224491957], ["2023-03-27", 0.9961569232549488], ["2023-03-27", 0.997948480371765]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-john-wick-4s-opening-weekend-b-2ab5ca144f22
|
https://youtu.be/Mimf6cBSVGk
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-27
|
Will John Wick 4's opening weekend box office (domestic) reach 70 million dollars or more?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-05-01
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4524886877828055], ["2023-03-04", 0.501903948834245], ["2023-03-04", 0.5515861251111771], ["2023-03-04", 0.6225133611254584], ["2023-03-04", 0.6514170009239642], ["2023-03-05", 0.572627954467128], ["2023-03-05", 0.5996608838296018], ["2023-03-05", 0.6107555892694078], ["2023-03-05", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-03-05", 0.6245333570745994], ["2023-03-05", 0.6471963450311302], ["2023-03-05", 0.653716382015244], ["2023-03-05", 0.6664420208830727], ["2023-03-05", 0.666631652062075], ["2023-03-05", 0.6787758424301854], ["2023-03-05", 0.6799564845671087], ["2023-03-06", 0.6800000000000003], ["2023-03-06", 0.6800000000000003], ["2023-03-06", 0.6800000000000003], ["2023-03-06", 0.6986531693107905], ["2023-03-06", 0.712480449462606], ["2023-03-06", 0.7247561717811963], ["2023-03-06", 0.7346595920532641], ["2023-03-06", 0.7349999048259451], ["2023-03-06", 0.7432311557599965], ["2023-03-06", 0.7644872216708861], ["2023-03-07", 0.6890143604130143], ["2023-03-12", 0.6669212993696171], ["2023-03-14", 0.6562829863955276], ["2023-03-17", 0.6357262671744836], ["2023-03-22", 0.526724935238679], ["2023-03-22", 0.5995397762134576], ["2023-03-26", 0.5154765743855071], ["2023-03-26", 0.5388510680024113], ["2023-03-31", 0.48738513320997195], ["2023-04-02", 0.2347780626095406], ["2023-04-02", 0.2347780626095406], ["2023-04-02", 0.2347780626095406], ["2023-04-02", 0.32975029401681966], ["2023-04-02", 0.32975029401681966], ["2023-04-02", 0.32975029401681966], ["2023-04-02", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-04-02", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-04-02", 0.3300000000000001], ["2023-04-02", 0.4662776881006784], ["2023-04-06", 0.444215610283951], ["2023-04-07", 0.46862987115523075], ["2023-04-08", 0.46862987115523075], ["2023-04-08", 0.46862987115523075], ["2023-04-08", 0.46862987115523075], ["2023-04-08", 0.46862987115523075], ["2023-04-20", 0.372535196230724], ["2023-04-20", 0.44550571624505114], ["2023-04-20", 0.45704876986118803], ["2023-04-25", 0.37440144544856274], ["2023-04-28", 0.3630837915377953], ["2023-04-29", 0.3149737172281472], ["2023-04-30", 0.07301871206897251], ["2023-04-30", 0.07359885064582812], ["2023-04-30", 0.08369193505150695], ["2023-04-30", 0.08921120076858016], ["2023-04-30", 0.08936271345765491], ["2023-04-30", 0.09012503997836883], ["2023-04-30", 0.10000000000000005], ["2023-04-30", 0.10346814399025131], ["2023-04-30", 0.1054907014628512], ["2023-04-30", 0.11082461732404658], ["2023-04-30", 0.11204645701938269], ["2023-04-30", 0.13000000000000006], ["2023-04-30", 0.1327386539513694], ["2023-04-30", 0.13998092219783537], ["2023-04-30", 0.14164380704637536], ["2023-04-30", 0.1700000000000001], ["2023-04-30", 0.1799999999999999], ["2023-04-30", 0.18230078529736216], ["2023-04-30", 0.23649463147193323], ["2023-05-01", 0.024093830138749897], ["2023-05-01", 0.08316300579720777]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-widespread-poisonings-of-y
|
Hundreds to thousands of young girls have fallen ill across the country due to apparent poisoning of some sort. Will it continue into next month?
|
Healthcare & Biology
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-05-01
|
Will the widespread poisonings of young girls in Iranian schools continue into April?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-24
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-03-05", 0.7429305912596401], ["2023-03-05", 0.7830802603036877], ["2023-03-05", 0.8124982542639718], ["2023-03-05", 0.8251888799300415], ["2023-03-06", 0.7835118650439], ["2023-03-06", 0.786739987428008], ["2023-03-06", 0.8], ["2023-03-09", 0.8004033017624409], ["2023-03-09", 0.8119967961472562], ["2023-03-12", 0.821887689694443], ["2023-03-14", 0.8128098706327299], ["2023-03-17", 0.821682963524221], ["2023-03-22", 0.8124882113983242], ["2023-03-26", 0.8035584279160054], ["2023-03-29", 0.7942886980774617], ["2023-03-30", 0.7842446081878415], ["2023-04-14", 0.7736453923626481], ["2023-04-20", 0.7614930184976418], ["2023-04-20", 0.8700000000000002], ["2023-04-20", 0.8700000000000002], ["2023-04-20", 0.8700000000000002], ["2023-04-20", 0.8955107861072852], ["2023-04-20", 0.94], ["2023-04-20", 0.9544453998366084], ["2023-04-24", 0.9813006809686311]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-the-us-announce-at-least-15bln
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-24
|
Will the US announce at least $1.5Bln in total arms sales to Taiwan during 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6499999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.6599999999999999], ["2023-03-04", 0.7762820064758675], ["2023-03-04", 0.8000000000000002], ["2023-03-04", 0.8036201649568671], ["2023-03-04", 0.8079517654916201], ["2023-03-04", 0.8676057769482634], ["2023-03-04", 0.8763565887388449], ["2023-03-04", 0.9055108486886474], ["2023-03-04", 0.9055108486886474], ["2023-03-04", 0.9055108486886474], ["2023-03-04", 0.943057113124664], ["2023-03-05", 0.99], ["2023-03-05", 0.9969612298598297], ["2023-03-05", 0.9981339380717353]]
|
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-this-market-have-a-bot-account-2e93b680a2f9
|
Inspiration from: A proof-of-concept that allows a silly picking-pennies-up-off-the-ground attack on some automated traders as they apparently currently exist. Getting 6 participants implies that I'm picking up pennies off the ground for every run of this market (+$M10 from the system bonus) and you're picking up pennies off the ground that an easily-taunted trading bot drops on the floor. You're effectively betting against the bots' programming getting more sophisticated before close (assuming someone bothers to try to attack the bots somehow).
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
Will this market have a bot account bet on it before close && will this market have at least 6 users submit a trade?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-26
|
2023-03-04
|
["https://youtu.be/Mimf6cBSVGk"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-04", 0.8100000000000002], ["2023-03-04", 0.8222746243616088], ["2023-03-04", 0.8409426998481903], ["2023-03-04", 0.8487821501082069], ["2023-03-04", 0.8661280354172209], ["2023-03-05", 0.738581570553868], ["2023-03-05", 0.77], ["2023-03-07", 0.7835483326973677], ["2023-03-10", 0.8070499650694116], ["2023-03-11", 0.8466695934855819], ["2023-03-15", 0.8486106187648076], ["2023-03-20", 0.8542741576496004], ["2023-03-20", 0.8542741576496005], ["2023-03-20", 0.8610528725593148], ["2023-03-20", 0.8690633842129617], ["2023-03-20", 0.8725433064325105], ["2023-03-20", 0.8752670527829133], ["2023-03-20", 0.8891446996341639], ["2023-03-20", 0.9000829273636536], ["2023-03-21", 0.8782200553994144], ["2023-03-23", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-03-23", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.9011325589255422], ["2023-03-26", 0.9199012321394135], ["2023-03-26", 0.9327901075183417], ["2023-03-26", 0.9799931526433786], ["2023-03-26", 0.9971814248317328], ["2023-03-26", 0.9971814248317328], ["2023-03-26", 0.9971814248317328]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-john-wick-4s-opening-weekend-b
|
https://youtu.be/Mimf6cBSVGk
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-26
|
Will John Wick 4's opening weekend box office reach 70 million dollars or more?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-11
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5093076407053726], ["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.33264733476386804], ["2023-03-09", 0.1557745454029965], ["2023-03-09", 0.40084719915527234], ["2023-03-10", 0.020000000000000046], ["2023-03-10", 0.08800326947624881], ["2023-03-10", 0.10642171790500755], ["2023-03-10", 0.13646348787453286], ["2023-03-11", 0.001013985071102744], ["2023-03-11", 0.017208581021011766], ["2023-03-11", 0.0325071031583306], ["2023-03-11", 0.039399760855965756], ["2023-03-11", 0.04303891018467172], ["2023-03-11", 0.046044682028713285], ["2023-03-11", 0.05248833732519668], ["2023-03-11", 0.05322810145780553]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-benjamin-netanyah
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-11
|
Will Vaush's video "Benjamin Netanyahu Wants to Make Israel a Dictatorship" reach 60k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-04
|
["https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQHJL5ueV64"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.76], ["2023-03-04", 0.8], ["2023-03-05", 0.14078956350233984], ["2023-03-05", 0.17000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-03-05", 0.26044590387609495], ["2023-03-05", 0.28128954085061714], ["2023-03-05", 0.33424109516409384], ["2023-03-05", 0.37422196522426965], ["2023-03-05", 0.44635103683815314], ["2023-03-05", 0.5053437401102532], ["2023-03-05", 0.93], ["2023-03-05", 0.93], ["2023-03-05", 0.93], ["2023-03-05", 0.9889393065839485], ["2023-03-05", 0.99], ["2023-03-05", 0.994571021599451]]
|
https://manifold.markets/VtuberNumbers/will-sakura-miko-get-the-highest-pe
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQHJL5ueV64 Vstats (
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
Will Sakura Miko get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 5th March, 2023?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.4836109618484686], ["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-05", 0.6875772377693156], ["2023-03-05", 0.85], ["2023-03-05", 0.8657823980142019], ["2023-03-05", 0.91], ["2023-03-05", 0.9198909650890681], ["2023-03-05", 0.9453059850448807], ["2023-03-05", 0.95], ["2023-03-05", 0.9630629032410187], ["2023-03-05", 0.98], ["2023-03-05", 0.99], ["2023-03-05", 0.9912954062295087], ["2023-03-05", 0.9956972323945859]]
|
https://manifold.markets/ValentinGolev/will-fernando-alonso-reach-a-podium
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
Will Fernando Alonso reach a podium at least once in the 2023 F1 season?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-09
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.46889009954738675], ["2023-03-04", 0.5396024792958249], ["2023-03-04", 0.565141763785006], ["2023-03-05", 0.8], ["2023-03-05", 0.8317750232565689], ["2023-03-05", 0.95], ["2023-03-05", 0.96], ["2023-03-05", 0.9725006995461888], ["2023-03-05", 0.9838886625050672], ["2023-03-06", 0.9922714886104625], ["2023-03-09", 0.9994901114950763], ["2023-03-09", 0.9994901114950763], ["2023-03-09", 0.9994901114950763]]
|
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-blaire-white-the
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-09
|
Will Vaush's video "Blaire White | The Ultimate Pick-Me" reach 120k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.5269505017036291], ["2023-03-04", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-04", 0.5919914434213123], ["2023-03-04", 0.5919914434213123], ["2023-03-04", 0.5919914434213123], ["2023-03-04", 0.6555990388730933], ["2023-03-07", 0.2881521541319769], ["2023-03-07", 0.4516526348847961], ["2023-03-07", 0.5664179775247573], ["2023-03-07", 0.5919914434213128], ["2023-03-07", 0.5919914434213128], ["2023-03-09", 0.8445185855130505], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8500000000000001], ["2023-03-09", 0.8568691019948284], ["2023-03-10", 0.8632572174550276], ["2023-03-10", 0.8772792617549962], ["2023-03-10", 0.9973164620318473], ["2023-03-11", 0.9968657082227979], ["2023-03-11", 0.9968964551436814], ["2023-03-13", 0.9967367004837248], ["2023-03-13", 0.9967510434925796], ["2023-03-13", 0.9967934078097116]]
|
https://manifold.markets/toms/will-optic-reach-its-funding-goal-o
|
See
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will OPTIC reach its funding goal of $1265 in its IPO on Manifund?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-23
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.3552061122569484], ["2023-03-04", 0.4098360655737706], ["2023-03-06", 0.29475298622326884], ["2023-03-06", 0.32014693030749536], ["2023-03-08", 0.24926319057288623], ["2023-03-08", 0.24943725748424084], ["2023-03-08", 0.29811008787955334], ["2023-03-08", 0.32193265235703644], ["2023-03-11", 0.2451884652699184], ["2023-03-11", 0.29178706373620655], ["2023-03-19", 0.22002070494308498], ["2023-03-23", 0.03340098856469925], ["2023-03-23", 0.03650158478352092], ["2023-03-23", 0.04037174443120803], ["2023-03-23", 0.044981254001315835], ["2023-03-23", 0.04999999999999998], ["2023-03-23", 0.1009691819344305], ["2023-03-23", 0.45322226010100847], ["2023-03-23", 0.45322226010100863], ["2023-03-23", 0.6233501601034164]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-relativity-spaces-terran-1-roc
|
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means the rocket reaches orbital velocity. The launch attempt on 8 March 2023 ended with a scrub. The launch attempt on 11 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-23
|
Will Relativity Space's Terran 1 rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-23
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-07", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-03-08", 0.2655358438319448], ["2023-03-08", 0.3000000000000001], ["2023-03-08", 0.38], ["2023-03-08", 0.38], ["2023-03-08", 0.38], ["2023-03-08", 0.387173279933471], ["2023-03-08", 0.3953720622773674], ["2023-03-08", 0.41701419305819065], ["2023-03-08", 0.432167295054705], ["2023-03-08", 0.44648984968620326], ["2023-03-08", 0.4484539881357804], ["2023-03-08", 0.4854742113245451], ["2023-03-08", 0.502475445877627], ["2023-03-08", 0.5173694020603508], ["2023-03-08", 0.5467399527812011], ["2023-03-08", 0.5989931194529271], ["2023-03-09", 0.37465454372529416], ["2023-03-09", 0.43370951034788824], ["2023-03-09", 0.49751641740731956], ["2023-03-11", 0.4657156897065242], ["2023-03-11", 0.5302251440845536], ["2023-03-11", 0.5302251440845536], ["2023-03-11", 0.5302251440845536], ["2023-03-11", 0.5451159898528699], ["2023-03-11", 0.5478013525060137], ["2023-03-11", 0.5645934951637562], ["2023-03-11", 0.5645934951637562], ["2023-03-11", 0.5645934951637562], ["2023-03-11", 0.5751338970710721], ["2023-03-11", 0.5804514710234485], ["2023-03-11", 0.595964549160319], ["2023-03-11", 0.5971499467403663], ["2023-03-11", 0.6021606205008186], ["2023-03-11", 0.6049756556719578], ["2023-03-11", 0.6085295445745288], ["2023-03-11", 0.6380561264268084], ["2023-03-11", 0.647226447697767], ["2023-03-11", 0.6589396669446359], ["2023-03-11", 0.6751677206909075], ["2023-03-11", 0.6790215338296206], ["2023-03-11", 0.6790215338296206], ["2023-03-11", 0.6902887685077614], ["2023-03-11", 0.6911033147323984], ["2023-03-11", 0.6948863232978525], ["2023-03-11", 0.7007159631688826], ["2023-03-11", 0.7092985055266904], ["2023-03-11", 0.7326220166890793], ["2023-03-11", 0.7326220166890793], ["2023-03-11", 0.7487144101948564], ["2023-03-11", 0.7536362065205318], ["2023-03-11", 0.7547079120697229], ["2023-03-11", 0.7564386106981966], ["2023-03-11", 0.7646884497360319], ["2023-03-11", 0.8117449818503197], ["2023-03-11", 0.8426093983555025], ["2023-03-11", 0.873239414966365], ["2023-03-11", 0.88], ["2023-03-11", 0.88], ["2023-03-11", 0.88], ["2023-03-11", 0.8917670266368157], ["2023-03-12", 0.7043462164944667], ["2023-03-13", 0.5947806576933008], ["2023-03-13", 0.5999999999999999], ["2023-03-13", 0.6539556579488204], ["2023-03-13", 0.6781682992150383], ["2023-03-14", 0.7237141845155193], ["2023-03-14", 0.7680118368058297], ["2023-03-16", 0.8259004137816676], ["2023-03-23", 0.6348180922034747], ["2023-03-23", 0.7761050097292638], ["2023-03-23", 0.9200000000000002], ["2023-03-23", 0.9369898031252549]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-relativity-spaces-terran-1-roc-fdd9a4fbd820
|
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. The launch attempt on 8 March 2023 ended with a scrub. The launch attempt on 11 March 2023 ended with a scrub.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-23
|
Will Relativity Space's Terran 1 rocket launch before April?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-07
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-04", 0.597546543731212], ["2023-03-04", 0.6298058154053232], ["2023-03-04", 0.6384321632783226], ["2023-03-04", 0.653778062716475], ["2023-03-04", 0.7191011235955056], ["2023-03-05", 0.66], ["2023-03-05", 0.6724353414883778], ["2023-03-07", 0.03322686801605104], ["2023-03-07", 0.04330735985683954], ["2023-03-07", 0.052357483653807484], ["2023-03-07", 0.06304068715614648], ["2023-03-07", 0.07999999999999997], ["2023-03-07", 0.1569540965856473], ["2023-03-07", 0.17], ["2023-03-07", 0.25239071926916185], ["2023-03-07", 0.2900000000000001], ["2023-03-07", 0.4484822213567958], ["2023-03-07", 0.4484822213567958], ["2023-03-07", 0.4484822213567958], ["2023-03-07", 0.49], ["2023-03-07", 0.49], ["2023-03-07", 0.49], ["2023-03-07", 0.6994050383930095], ["2023-03-07", 0.76], ["2023-03-07", 0.7691354886922355], ["2023-03-07", 0.810532318521675]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/will-mitsubishi-heavy-industries-h3
|
For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means pushing the payload to orbital velocity. The next launch attempt will be on 5 March 2023.
|
Science & Tech
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-07
|
Will Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' H3 rocket achieve orbit on its first launch?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-03-04
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
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https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-marc
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Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by March 31, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. Orange shading does not count as YES. (Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.) Resolution criteria based on Related:
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Security & Defense
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Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
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Will Russia control Bakhmut by March 31?
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manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-20
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2023-03-04
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[]
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BINARY
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["2023-04-20", 0.1593978009679222], ["2023-04-20", 0.16169533706126388], ["2023-04-20", 0.16169533706126388], ["2023-04-20", 0.16169533706126388], ["2023-04-20", 0.16241882932073737], ["2023-04-20", 0.16241882932073737], ["2023-04-20", 0.16241882932073737], ["2023-04-20", 0.16426812453274273], ["2023-04-20", 0.16461664864551648], ["2023-04-20", 0.16461664864551648], ["2023-04-20", 0.1656132963085471], ["2023-04-20", 0.1656132963085471], ["2023-04-20", 0.1656132963085471], ["2023-04-20", 0.16826090718582973], ["2023-04-20", 0.16826090718582973], ["2023-04-20", 0.16826090718582973], ["2023-04-20", 0.17000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.17000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.17000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.1740123337963204], ["2023-04-20", 0.1740123337963204], ["2023-04-20", 0.1740123337963204], ["2023-04-20", 0.17469673534777705], ["2023-04-20", 0.17521821275314148], ["2023-04-20", 0.17564145756585842], ["2023-04-20", 0.17980457366145736], ["2023-04-20", 0.1813175444059933], ["2023-04-20", 0.1813175444059933], ["2023-04-20", 0.1813175444059933], ["2023-04-20", 0.1814522230132416], ["2023-04-20", 0.18211222830184953], ["2023-04-20", 0.18269825461536862], ["2023-04-20", 0.18722729648656206], ["2023-04-20", 0.18907072692847104], ["2023-04-20", 0.18907072692847104], ["2023-04-20", 0.18907072692847104], ["2023-04-20", 0.18991453833813549], ["2023-04-20", 0.18991453833813549], ["2023-04-20", 0.18991453833813549], ["2023-04-20", 0.1905096730517705], ["2023-04-20", 0.1905368415335339], ["2023-04-20", 0.1909061239605], ["2023-04-20", 0.19226429395177566], ["2023-04-20", 0.1928286041102336], ["2023-04-20", 0.19502609304787485], ["2023-04-20", 0.19536078113170993], ["2023-04-20", 0.19560258898814753], ["2023-04-20", 0.1958408459732689], ["2023-04-20", 0.19730640061951432], ["2023-04-20", 0.19730640061951432], ["2023-04-20", 0.19730640061951432], ["2023-04-20", 0.19816404186249278], ["2023-04-20", 0.19816404186249278], ["2023-04-20", 0.19816404186249278], ["2023-04-20", 0.19816404186249278], ["2023-04-20", 0.19816404186249278], ["2023-04-20", 0.19820314340265657], ["2023-04-20", 0.19820314340265657], ["2023-04-20", 0.19820314340265657], ["2023-04-20", 0.1999999999999999], ["2023-04-20", 0.19999999999999993], ["2023-04-20", 0.2], ["2023-04-20", 0.2], ["2023-04-20", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-04-20", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-04-20", 0.20000000000000007], ["2023-04-20", 0.20073914698812753], ["2023-04-20", 0.20073914698812753], ["2023-04-20", 0.20120108899030495], ["2023-04-20", 0.20177347131220907], ["2023-04-20", 0.2018484415383734], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20250118002248885], ["2023-04-20", 0.20310560642226452], ["2023-04-20", 0.20345540397827097], ["2023-04-20", 0.2040253488886778], ["2023-04-20", 0.2047398734347413], ["2023-04-20", 0.20606206315269093], ["2023-04-20", 0.20813692873460649], ["2023-04-20", 0.20971825134727923], ["2023-04-20", 0.2102051949183929], ["2023-04-20", 0.21061608939454454], ["2023-04-20", 0.21067442125735708], ["2023-04-20", 0.21081422223396393], ["2023-04-20", 0.21321059267950626], ["2023-04-20", 0.21438814303782835], ["2023-04-20", 0.21728731783288738], ["2023-04-20", 0.2174247530221962], ["2023-04-20", 0.2219478133103465], ["2023-04-20", 0.224450191838552], ["2023-04-20", 0.2265628680758573], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999984], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999984], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999984], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999998], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999998], ["2023-04-20", 0.22999999999999998], ["2023-04-20", 0.23], ["2023-04-20", 0.23], ["2023-04-20", 0.23], ["2023-04-20", 0.23], ["2023-04-20", 0.23000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.23000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.23000000000000004], ["2023-04-20", 0.23503390802924587], ["2023-04-20", 0.23916506169984528], ["2023-04-20", 0.2444803837828348], ["2023-04-20", 0.24552035502396433], ["2023-04-20", 0.2503948188170826]]
|
https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-apri
|
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, by April 20, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through April 20. See The specific location used for this question is: on the ISW interactive map, the dot if you search "Bakhmut 2". The shading of the map over the center of the dot when fully zoomed in will be used for resolution. (Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.) Resolution criteria based on
|
Security & Defense
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-20
|
Will Russia control central Bakhmut by April 20?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-19
|
2023-03-05
|
["https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/MuKitty"]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-05", 0.28683289488771024], ["2023-03-05", 0.31000000000000005], ["2023-03-05", 0.31365715558246876], ["2023-03-05", 0.3447110950280922], ["2023-03-05", 0.3509264458169568], ["2023-03-05", 0.35545341005931935], ["2023-03-05", 0.35659688009681], ["2023-03-05", 0.36753582766876103], ["2023-03-05", 0.4609511472816169], ["2023-03-05", 0.5048917643194448], ["2023-03-05", 0.5162845771312528], ["2023-03-05", 0.5300000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.5300000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.5300000000000001], ["2023-03-05", 0.593808526656292], ["2023-03-05", 0.5988288096193929], ["2023-03-05", 0.5988288096193929], ["2023-03-05", 0.5988288096193929], ["2023-03-05", 0.61], ["2023-03-05", 0.61], ["2023-03-05", 0.61], ["2023-03-05", 0.62], ["2023-03-05", 0.62], ["2023-03-05", 0.62], ["2023-03-05", 0.6270752652664046], ["2023-03-05", 0.65], ["2023-03-05", 0.6642592467476678], ["2023-03-05", 0.67], ["2023-03-05", 0.6724423948743329], ["2023-03-05", 0.69], ["2023-03-05", 0.6943061675511049], ["2023-03-05", 0.6990904108730128], ["2023-03-05", 0.7074000868942236], ["2023-03-05", 0.71], ["2023-03-05", 0.7275904996934779], ["2023-03-05", 0.8], ["2023-03-05", 0.9148976808152577], ["2023-03-06", 0.6597170018709236], ["2023-03-06", 0.6685059146549778], ["2023-03-06", 0.7033502866653152], ["2023-03-06", 0.7199999999999999], ["2023-03-06", 0.7382822093682372], ["2023-03-06", 0.7429547314489342], ["2023-03-06", 0.76], ["2023-03-06", 0.7756532223234622], ["2023-03-06", 0.78], ["2023-03-06", 0.78], ["2023-03-06", 0.78], ["2023-03-06", 0.7896706588902952], ["2023-03-06", 0.7900000000000001], ["2023-03-06", 0.7938308256492302], ["2023-03-06", 0.8], ["2023-03-06", 0.8050693081349649], ["2023-03-06", 0.8126317457884464], ["2023-03-06", 0.8167026667046016], ["2023-03-06", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-03-06", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-03-06", 0.8199999999999998], ["2023-03-06", 0.8349618053041623], ["2023-03-07", 0.3064498652252472], ["2023-03-07", 0.33716917916328953], ["2023-03-07", 0.34570717146895813], ["2023-03-07", 0.3733740006378744], ["2023-03-07", 0.4170537930028807], ["2023-03-07", 0.44172028984121997], ["2023-03-07", 0.448554485362817], ["2023-03-07", 0.46064319733340564], ["2023-03-07", 0.5558346443923134], ["2023-03-07", 0.5699999999999998], ["2023-03-07", 0.5699999999999998], ["2023-03-07", 0.5699999999999998], ["2023-03-08", 0.4672107660567097], ["2023-03-08", 0.46970480832804273], ["2023-03-08", 0.4884317197286314], ["2023-03-08", 0.4987772540314717], ["2023-03-08", 0.49999999999999994], ["2023-03-08", 0.5061752065713317], ["2023-03-08", 0.5099908682159869], ["2023-03-08", 0.5186854341439057], ["2023-03-08", 0.5197592795171421], ["2023-03-08", 0.53], ["2023-03-08", 0.5557983521734201], ["2023-03-09", 0.5309047810017783], ["2023-03-09", 0.5499999999999999], ["2023-03-09", 0.5721485956885124], ["2023-03-10", 0.5662263660510344], ["2023-03-10", 0.6025319022857158], ["2023-03-11", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-11", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-11", 0.5], ["2023-03-13", 0.3681662446731052], ["2023-03-14", 0.3905553912082576], ["2023-03-14", 0.4], ["2023-03-14", 0.4], ["2023-03-15", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4], ["2023-03-17", 0.4232556178993821], ["2023-03-17", 0.43254274352204103], ["2023-03-17", 0.48956112267320817], ["2023-03-17", 0.4913365073946618], ["2023-03-18", 0.39329593484105413], ["2023-03-19", 0.3535167395341902], ["2023-03-19", 0.37], ["2023-03-19", 0.37], ["2023-03-19", 0.37], ["2023-03-19", 0.3999999999999999], ["2023-03-19", 0.4994087583159509], ["2023-03-19", 0.5773088277170347], ["2023-03-19", 0.5819488734408881], ["2023-03-19", 0.5868599594318329], ["2023-03-19", 0.5868599594318329], ["2023-03-19", 0.5868599594318329], ["2023-03-19", 0.59], ["2023-03-19", 0.616552819852587], ["2023-03-19", 0.6199999999999999], ["2023-03-19", 0.6280371905739117], ["2023-03-19", 0.6395809053568146], ["2023-03-19", 0.6452634308780935], ["2023-03-19", 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0.9106234441747503], ["2023-03-19", 0.9106234441747503], ["2023-03-19", 0.9796823104316833], ["2023-03-19", 0.9797577751344407], ["2023-03-19", 0.9802717171250506], ["2023-03-19", 0.9802717171250506], ["2023-03-19", 0.9802717171250506], ["2023-03-19", 0.9803420500679134], ["2023-03-19", 0.9806066667504499], ["2023-03-19", 0.9806719391204227], ["2023-03-19", 0.9807368229994339], ["2023-03-19", 0.9870805703063321], ["2023-03-19", 0.9873805522556685], ["2023-03-19", 0.987679534248209], ["2023-03-19", 0.9877098381122422]]
|
https://manifold.markets/Trend/will-mukitty-surpass-10k-subscriber
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/MuKitty
|
Arts & Recreation
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-19
|
Will MuKitty surpass 10k subscribers by the end of March?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-05
|
2023-03-05
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-05", 0.019061297009308267], ["2023-03-05", 0.04615154821401123], ["2023-03-05", 0.06750910328531222], ["2023-03-05", 0.06750910328531222], ["2023-03-05", 0.06750910328531222], ["2023-03-05", 0.15858717287011584], ["2023-03-05", 0.1637059818989524], ["2023-03-05", 0.17], ["2023-03-05", 0.17], ["2023-03-05", 0.17], ["2023-03-05", 0.2308559176085387], ["2023-03-05", 0.38], ["2023-03-05", 0.39453124832745246], ["2023-03-05", 0.39453124832745246], ["2023-03-05", 0.39453124832745246], ["2023-03-05", 0.5065880444618367], ["2023-03-05", 0.5065880444618367], ["2023-03-05", 0.5065880444618367], ["2023-03-05", 0.5173296305204154], ["2023-03-05", 0.6282527881040891], ["2023-03-05", 0.6425718468752405], ["2023-03-05", 0.6425718468752405], ["2023-03-05", 0.6425718468752405], ["2023-03-05", 0.6923076923076924], ["2023-03-05", 0.7329446085166986], ["2023-03-05", 0.7329446085166986], ["2023-03-05", 0.7329446085166986], ["2023-03-05", 0.7354761414446045], ["2023-03-05", 0.782250144920291]]
|
https://manifold.markets/SamBlack/will-sam-qualify-with-this-sealed-d-ec6665e54aa4
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Other
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-05
|
Will Sam Qualify with this sealed deck?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-14
|
2023-03-11
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-11", 0.2922958862743959], ["2023-03-11", 0.3], ["2023-03-11", 0.319568903695823], ["2023-03-11", 0.33888195582544245], ["2023-03-11", 0.3868221147052032], ["2023-03-11", 0.45248868778280543], ["2023-03-11", 0.4708984742889434], ["2023-03-11", 0.4900999803960008], ["2023-03-11", 0.5], ["2023-03-11", 0.5621017975117398], ["2023-03-11", 0.592562915246331], ["2023-03-11", 0.6050130906307273], ["2023-03-11", 0.63], ["2023-03-11", 0.6584025483605369], ["2023-03-11", 0.67], ["2023-03-11", 0.67], ["2023-03-11", 0.6846315717301933], ["2023-03-11", 0.6853665651415145], ["2023-03-11", 0.6891831632039025], ["2023-03-12", 0.5559431622376407], ["2023-03-12", 0.5719614307262435], ["2023-03-12", 0.59], ["2023-03-12", 0.59], ["2023-03-12", 0.59], ["2023-03-12", 0.6098283217136127], ["2023-03-12", 0.66843263012157], ["2023-03-12", 0.6815973007073536], ["2023-03-12", 0.6926662941379228], ["2023-03-13", 0.6015781938669097], ["2023-03-16", 0.6326021339013402], ["2023-03-16", 0.6756965639279986], ["2023-03-17", 0.6982589208422696], ["2023-03-18", 0.6989386359410403], ["2023-03-20", 0.6276812424948214], ["2023-03-20", 0.6600000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.6600000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.6600000000000001], ["2023-03-20", 0.6692932410655388], ["2023-03-20", 0.6986094108927031], ["2023-03-20", 0.6986094108927031], ["2023-03-20", 0.6986094108927031], ["2023-03-20", 0.7292991476895393], ["2023-03-21", 0.7168149494354125], ["2023-03-21", 0.7274052303646132], ["2023-03-22", 0.7319798329076777], ["2023-03-22", 0.7547413045273743], ["2023-03-23", 0.767001643464994], ["2023-03-23", 0.7783870947029182], ["2023-03-23", 0.7956225564778955], ["2023-03-24", 0.8223416901599322], ["2023-03-25", 0.8282792410117178], ["2023-03-25", 0.8491792995344557], ["2023-03-25", 0.8639888118144563], ["2023-03-25", 0.8639888118144563], ["2023-03-25", 0.8639888118144563], ["2023-03-25", 0.867050673146065], ["2023-03-25", 0.8709655941095191], ["2023-03-27", 0.8579135662642107], ["2023-03-27", 0.8731856152385759], ["2023-03-30", 0.8760677723281356], ["2023-03-30", 0.8787187297232311], ["2023-04-14", 0.8918317712760552], ["2023-04-14", 0.9019226437088251], ["2023-04-14", 0.9355906813356988]]
|
https://manifold.markets/FlanAuxQuetsches/will-france-vote-a-pension-reform-e
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Politics & Governance
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-15
|
Will France vote a pension reform extending the retirement age to 64+ years?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-03-27
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-03-13", 0.15477780903310323], ["2023-03-13", 0.17123287671232876], ["2023-03-16", 0.11626185403277843], ["2023-03-17", 0.05088948246603096], ["2023-03-19", 0.06000000000000005], ["2023-03-22", 0.06885454360993468], ["2023-03-22", 0.06885454360993468], ["2023-03-22", 0.06885454360993468], ["2023-03-22", 0.06907867960851997], ["2023-03-22", 0.06907867960851997], ["2023-03-22", 0.06907867960851997], ["2023-03-22", 0.06930411878131744], ["2023-03-23", 0.06841013816048316], ["2023-03-23", 0.06841013816048316], ["2023-03-23", 0.06841013816048316], ["2023-03-23", 0.06863170001297411], ["2023-03-23", 0.06863170001297411], ["2023-03-23", 0.06863170001297411], ["2023-03-24", 0.07146567284167273], ["2023-03-25", 0.08311784317894565], ["2023-03-25", 0.10969104920520575], ["2023-03-25", 0.12], ["2023-03-25", 0.12], ["2023-03-25", 0.12], ["2023-03-25", 0.12], ["2023-03-25", 0.12322385489088339], ["2023-03-25", 0.12322385489088339], ["2023-03-25", 0.12322385489088339], ["2023-03-25", 0.12980119529497958], ["2023-03-25", 0.12980119529497958], ["2023-03-25", 0.12980119529497958], ["2023-03-25", 0.1370250683908213], ["2023-03-26", 0.013026921618915301], ["2023-03-26", 0.013089679429332072], ["2023-03-26", 0.014313967527407687], ["2023-03-26", 0.015757965558757563], ["2023-03-26", 0.017482854506942282], ["2023-03-26", 0.018474459222757703], ["2023-03-26", 0.018474459222757703], ["2023-03-26", 0.01957391551900144], ["2023-03-26", 0.02084260967816582], ["2023-03-26", 0.02084260967816582], ["2023-03-26", 0.02084260967816582], ["2023-03-26", 0.02206412109841664], ["2023-03-26", 0.02206412109841664], ["2023-03-26", 0.02206412109841664], ["2023-03-26", 0.02468047044138075], ["2023-03-26", 0.024716226696037492], ["2023-03-26", 0.02475207586223048], ["2023-03-26", 0.025030631990380293], ["2023-03-26", 0.025115755090767015], ["2023-03-26", 0.025376521437321865], ["2023-03-26", 0.0254017192371194], ["2023-03-26", 0.025489119410969284], ["2023-03-26", 0.02587254465692831], ["2023-03-26", 0.02626642591772338], ["2023-03-26", 0.026306404939845776], ["2023-03-26", 0.02654858580798164], ["2023-03-26", 0.028089649923428644], ["2023-03-26", 0.028546437271627072], ["2023-03-26", 0.029016699406645342], ["2023-03-26", 0.029501016078104143], ["2023-03-26", 0.03000000000000003], ["2023-03-26", 0.034483890701970686], ["2023-03-26", 0.035138373478939756], ["2023-03-26", 0.03971339970531574], ["2023-03-26", 0.046480586282623616], ["2023-03-26", 0.04879603947796751], ["2023-03-26", 0.0526564496294455], ["2023-03-26", 0.06000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.06000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.06000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.07000000000000012], ["2023-03-26", 0.0759133643630315], ["2023-03-26", 0.09164189722119889], ["2023-03-27", 0.020000000000000004], ["2023-03-27", 0.020659100434385097], ["2023-03-27", 0.021860965036958124], ["2023-03-27", 0.023194180788724168]]
|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-a-wcc-team-win-the-2023-mens-n
|
Only 2 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the West Coast conference (WCC) for March Madness, but they consist of competitive Gonzaga and St. Mary's squads: Gonzaga - 3 St. Mary's - 5 This market will resolve YES if a team from the WCC wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more WCC teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-27
|
Will a WCC team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-24
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.1000000000000001], ["2023-03-13", 0.1580916744621142], ["2023-03-19", 0.05742515945365068], ["2023-03-19", 0.06977216217300408], ["2023-03-19", 0.10169040767433063], ["2023-03-19", 0.11196437394956016], ["2023-03-19", 0.12616834697091472], ["2023-03-19", 0.13074971445222752], ["2023-03-19", 0.138126269557977], ["2023-03-20", 0.055445436908557376], ["2023-03-20", 0.05642045658698248], ["2023-03-22", 0.09462189812207956], ["2023-03-23", 0.07701424223196726], ["2023-03-23", 0.07737423800391202], ["2023-03-23", 0.08153675639886782], ["2023-03-23", 0.08610656751175778], ["2023-03-24", 0.024363767229592482], ["2023-03-24", 0.02999007982773988], ["2023-03-24", 0.03854660147852688], ["2023-03-24", 0.05256384053001397], ["2023-03-24", 0.052748108645156874], ["2023-03-24", 0.052933512577302125], ["2023-03-24", 0.05312006233126415], ["2023-03-24", 0.05710815821516754], ["2023-03-24", 0.05796916317513896], ["2023-03-24", 0.058187975509693575], ["2023-03-24", 0.058629968008008904], ["2023-03-24", 0.059531815295594606], ["2023-03-24", 0.06165234309486563], ["2023-03-24", 0.0766571627481958]]
|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-a-pac12-team-win-the-2023-mens
|
The following 4 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the Pac-12 conference for March Madness: UCLA - 2 Arizona - 2 USC - 10 Arizona State - 11 (part of the First Four/play-in) This market will resolve YES if a team from the Pac-12 conference wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more Pac-12 teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-25
|
Will a Pac-12 team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-25
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.8999999999999999], ["2023-03-13", 0.2623188814318838], ["2023-03-13", 0.4571688525321836], ["2023-03-13", 0.5128326745267718], ["2023-03-13", 0.8419083255378859], ["2023-03-16", 0.2370364465413856], ["2023-03-19", 0.26], ["2023-03-20", 0.27], ["2023-03-20", 0.27], ["2023-03-24", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-24", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-24", 0.24000000000000002], ["2023-03-24", 0.2402044818219998], ["2023-03-24", 0.2402044818219998], ["2023-03-24", 0.2402044818219998], ["2023-03-24", 0.25448704178000114], ["2023-03-24", 0.25448704178000114], ["2023-03-24", 0.25448704178000114], ["2023-03-25", 0.05115591528679377], ["2023-03-25", 0.05253099414385776], ["2023-03-25", 0.05396377390301849], ["2023-03-25", 0.055457543036715844], ["2023-03-25", 0.05701582649234669], ["2023-03-25", 0.06867845293667253], ["2023-03-25", 0.08]]
|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-an-aac-team-win-the-2023-mens
|
Only 2 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the American Athletic conference (AAC) for March Madness, but they include a dominant one-seed in Houston: Houston - 1 Memphis - 8 This market will resolve YES if a team from the AAC wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more AAC teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-25
|
Will an AAC team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-02
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.2000000000000001], ["2023-03-13", 0.14363172247422684], ["2023-03-13", 0.20996718489452945], ["2023-03-13", 0.229755116819635], ["2023-03-13", 0.2647058823529413], ["2023-03-15", 0.19075847084919992], ["2023-03-16", 0.09583192389725351], ["2023-03-18", 0.07035985482968252], ["2023-03-19", 0.05089450547963052], ["2023-03-19", 0.05130797231780181], ["2023-03-19", 0.0529115769862196], ["2023-03-19", 0.05483674428316993], ["2023-03-19", 0.05738811705922086], ["2023-03-19", 0.06271008587602225], ["2023-03-19", 0.06483273409431776], ["2023-03-19", 0.06708268930345122], ["2023-03-19", 0.06758242636254891], ["2023-03-19", 0.06860141741891357], ["2023-03-20", 0.04894816054042012], ["2023-03-20", 0.04903785624588124], ["2023-03-20", 0.049127841959447825], ["2023-03-20", 0.04921811902242518], ["2023-03-20", 0.04930868878417968], ["2023-03-20", 0.04939955260219832], ["2023-03-20", 0.04976597587425402], ["2023-03-20", 0.05013721479816909], ["2023-03-20", 0.050513360283632985], ["2023-03-21", 0.04850398574588865], ["2023-03-21", 0.0485922512523694], ["2023-03-21", 0.04868080017929625], ["2023-03-21", 0.04876963382854472], ["2023-03-21", 0.04885875350976121], ["2023-03-22", 0.04832829982527909], ["2023-03-22", 0.04841600236569282], ["2023-03-23", 0.04687911450276574], ["2023-03-23", 0.04696223244292534], ["2023-03-24", 0.042051999374685595], ["2023-03-24", 0.04212061691637348], ["2023-03-24", 0.04232765911272514], ["2023-03-24", 0.042676744136165505], ["2023-03-24", 0.04390250127765094], ["2023-03-24", 0.04679625549380047], ["2023-03-25", 0.06663943090437932], ["2023-03-25", 0.08000000000000008], ["2023-03-25", 0.08000000000000008], ["2023-03-25", 0.08000000000000008], ["2023-03-25", 0.08000000000000008], ["2023-03-26", 0.049868026105078525], ["2023-03-26", 0.04996071499849253], ["2023-03-26", 0.05005370783195756], ["2023-03-26", 0.05014700603104008], ["2023-03-26", 0.05024061102999406], ["2023-03-26", 0.050618128017329365], ["2023-03-26", 0.05138833562337044], ["2023-03-26", 0.05165332448708999], ["2023-03-26", 0.05165332448708999], ["2023-03-26", 0.05165332448708999], ["2023-03-26", 0.05238055862052959], ["2023-03-26", 0.05348333253363418], ["2023-03-26", 0.05348333253363418], ["2023-03-26", 0.05348333253363418], ["2023-03-26", 0.055014705709311496], ["2023-03-26", 0.055358534433873834], ["2023-03-26", 0.055358534433873834], ["2023-03-26", 0.055358534433873834], ["2023-03-26", 0.05727939972840931], ["2023-03-26", 0.05727939972840931], ["2023-03-26", 0.05727939972840931], ["2023-03-26", 0.0588682990531718], ["2023-03-26", 0.05924638260925156], ["2023-03-26", 0.05924638260925156], ["2023-03-26", 0.05924638260925156], ["2023-03-26", 0.06013099821709682], ["2023-03-26", 0.061259921221221175], ["2023-03-26", 0.061259921221221175], ["2023-03-26", 0.061259921221221175], ["2023-03-26", 0.06144213112474541], ["2023-03-26", 0.06280439185798084], ["2023-03-26", 0.06332043696595337], ["2023-03-26", 0.06332043696595337], ["2023-03-26", 0.06332043696595337], ["2023-03-26", 0.06422067193350134], ["2023-03-26", 0.0654283338097217], ["2023-03-26", 0.0654283338097217], ["2023-03-26", 0.0654283338097217], ["2023-03-26", 0.06569407834047034], ["2023-03-26", 0.06722795355979837], ["2023-03-26", 0.0688258978203054], ["2023-03-26", 0.07049179388480574], ["2023-03-26", 0.07066227942201031], ["2023-03-26", 0.07083349049819757], ["2023-03-26", 0.0710054315201858], ["2023-03-26", 0.07117810692950158], ["2023-03-26", 0.07152567885177893], ["2023-03-26", 0.07240777817357225], ["2023-03-26", 0.07404455432234851], ["2023-03-26", 0.07594086249976183], ["2023-03-26", 0.0779240835464524], ["2023-03-26", 0.07999999999999996], ["2023-03-26", 0.08868872408754756], ["2023-03-26", 0.0891883169624752], ["2023-03-26", 0.0891883169624752], ["2023-03-26", 0.0891883169624752], ["2023-03-26", 0.09], ["2023-03-26", 0.09], ["2023-03-26", 0.09], ["2023-03-26", 0.09129936078942649], ["2023-03-26", 0.09404758619641512], ["2023-03-26", 0.09694393346818159], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999994], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999994], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999994], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999994], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999998], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999998], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999998], ["2023-03-26", 0.09999999999999998], ["2023-03-26", 0.12069524560782088], ["2023-03-26", 0.12069524560782088], ["2023-03-26", 0.12069524560782088], ["2023-03-26", 0.12519726844059423], ["2023-03-26", 0.12519726844059423], ["2023-03-26", 0.12519726844059423], ["2023-03-26", 0.13000000000000003], ["2023-03-26", 0.13000000000000003], ["2023-03-26", 0.13000000000000003], ["2023-03-26", 0.15000000000000005], ["2023-03-26", 0.15000000000000005], ["2023-03-26", 0.17000000000000004], ["2023-03-26", 0.17000000000000004], ["2023-03-26", 0.18999999999999992], ["2023-03-26", 0.18999999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.18999999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.20000000000000004], ["2023-03-26", 0.20000000000000004], ["2023-03-26", 0.20000000000000012], ["2023-03-27", 0.18531231972764103], ["2023-03-27", 0.18531231972764103], ["2023-03-27", 0.18531231972764103], ["2023-03-27", 0.18531231972764103], ["2023-03-27", 0.18531231972764103], ["2023-03-27", 0.2000000000000002], ["2023-04-01", 0.21], ["2023-04-01", 0.21], ["2023-04-02", 0.009059824273900643], ["2023-04-02", 0.00912473957437277], ["2023-04-02", 0.009939615447773244], ["2023-04-02", 0.011562061624430976], ["2023-04-02", 0.023615250943852382], ["2023-04-02", 0.037237121327505784], ["2023-04-02", 0.041132877050053335], ["2023-04-02", 0.04812719075547697], ["2023-04-02", 0.053322229610539854], ["2023-04-02", 0.08259399212553299], ["2023-04-02", 0.16000000000000003], ["2023-04-02", 0.17239148514070773], ["2023-04-02", 0.18999999999999995], ["2023-04-02", 0.18999999999999995], ["2023-04-02", 0.18999999999999995], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-04-02", 0.19999999999999998], ["2023-04-02", 0.21], ["2023-04-02", 0.21], ["2023-04-02", 0.21], ["2023-04-02", 0.21], ["2023-04-02", 0.21999999999999995], ["2023-04-02", 0.21999999999999995], ["2023-04-02", 0.21999999999999995]]
|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-an-acc-team-win-the-2023-mens
|
The following 5 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the Atlantic Coast conference (ACC) for March Madness: Virginia - 4 Miami (FL) - 5 Duke - 5 NC State - 11 Pitt - 11 (part of the First Four/play-in) This market will resolve YES if a team from the ACC wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more ACC teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-02
|
Will an ACC team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-25
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.898789522691389], ["2023-03-13", 0.2207332223641358], ["2023-03-13", 0.2980713526729511], ["2023-03-13", 0.45545331406512457], ["2023-03-13", 0.5108005375669968], ["2023-03-13", 0.8405327526094148], ["2023-03-19", 0.22503826114206044], ["2023-03-19", 0.22935635219947642], ["2023-03-19", 0.23368648299378195], ["2023-03-19", 0.24237886724099092], ["2023-03-19", 0.25110753503949457], ["2023-03-19", 0.2774354290558891], ["2023-03-19", 0.29503360719957444], ["2023-03-20", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-03-20", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-03-20", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-03-20", 0.29000000000000004], ["2023-03-20", 0.30264029181382196], ["2023-03-21", 0.29], ["2023-03-21", 0.29], ["2023-03-21", 0.29], ["2023-03-24", 0.1651566397286003], ["2023-03-24", 0.17230038507644133], ["2023-03-24", 0.17991918821755065], ["2023-03-24", 0.1880544884848642], ["2023-03-24", 0.19675201743657042], ["2023-03-24", 0.20606227582590117], ["2023-03-24", 0.21604105670638624], ["2023-03-24", 0.22675001442038575], ["2023-03-24", 0.23825727652645534], ["2023-03-24", 0.24134568356863534], ["2023-03-24", 0.24134568356863534], ["2023-03-24", 0.24134568356863534], ["2023-03-24", 0.24256589731375364], ["2023-03-24", 0.24256589731375364], ["2023-03-24", 0.24256589731375364], ["2023-03-24", 0.2437951266569756], ["2023-03-24", 0.2437951266569756], ["2023-03-24", 0.2437951266569756], ["2023-03-24", 0.2488038561728426], ["2023-03-24", 0.2488038561728426], ["2023-03-24", 0.2488038561728426], ["2023-03-24", 0.2647585280404445], ["2023-03-24", 0.2647585280404445], ["2023-03-24", 0.2647585280404445], ["2023-03-24", 0.28842199040542954], ["2023-03-24", 0.28842199040542954], ["2023-03-24", 0.28842199040542954], ["2023-03-25", 0.04408881582641727], ["2023-03-25", 0.06309468980939902], ["2023-03-25", 0.06999999999999999]]
|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-a-sec-team-win-the-2023-mens-n
|
The following 8 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the Southeastern conference (SEC) for March Madness: Alabama - 1 Tennessee - 4 Kentucky - 6 Texas A&M - 7 Missouri - 7 Arkansas - 8 Auburn - 9 Mississippi State - 11 (part of the First Four/play-in) This market will resolve YES if a team from the SEC wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more SEC teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-25
|
Will a SEC team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-01
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.353102274291389], ["2023-03-12", 0.4110351426773958], ["2023-03-12", 0.4800383996383306], ["2023-03-12", 0.5901639344262294], ["2023-03-12", 0.5950167348456675], ["2023-03-12", 0.6567285210925181], ["2023-03-12", 0.7148082099832233], ["2023-03-12", 0.7191011235955055], ["2023-03-12", 0.7585805532195964], ["2023-03-12", 0.785232940415453], ["2023-03-13", 0.13012891590543552], ["2023-03-13", 0.16300046543899674], ["2023-03-13", 0.19351345547342894], ["2023-03-13", 0.1952536028729417], ["2023-03-13", 0.1952536028729417], ["2023-03-13", 0.1952536028729417], ["2023-03-13", 0.21], ["2023-03-13", 0.22942957856363316], ["2023-03-13", 0.22942957856363316], ["2023-03-13", 0.22942957856363316], ["2023-03-13", 0.2533587457906106], ["2023-03-13", 0.26502012497786903], ["2023-03-14", 0.1557974345566281], ["2023-03-14", 0.17552029588264562], ["2023-03-14", 0.17955895705409614], ["2023-03-14", 0.19423871550044358], ["2023-03-14", 0.22538979219563002], ["2023-03-14", 0.2835712789142146], ["2023-03-14", 0.3588047121844806], ["2023-03-14", 0.3751876393863491], ["2023-03-14", 0.38682562035338536], ["2023-03-14", 0.4142726696808743], ["2023-03-14", 0.4142726696808743], ["2023-03-14", 0.4190149307126268], ["2023-03-14", 0.435514733129523], ["2023-03-14", 0.4427420165470699], ["2023-03-14", 0.4528715869893245], ["2023-03-14", 0.4597476889248475], ["2023-03-14", 0.5740482493795692], ["2023-03-15", 0.13016988048615458], ["2023-03-16", 0.10558712750145446], ["2023-03-16", 0.12323564321776546], ["2023-03-16", 0.12547936173716065], ["2023-03-16", 0.12778986339417178], ["2023-03-17", 0.09530359660709263], ["2023-03-17", 0.1000797071655043], ["2023-03-17", 0.10267985881683425], ["2023-03-17", 0.10410719170807944], ["2023-03-22", 0.09798120567155606], ["2023-03-22", 0.12057503955022941], ["2023-03-22", 0.13931037556605763], ["2023-03-24", 0.10338628133332241], ["2023-03-25", 0.0975559404976119], ["2023-03-26", 0.09625022506746617], ["2023-03-27", 0.0732075314101668], ["2023-03-27", 0.09391918519486302], ["2023-03-28", 0.059517238263680744], ["2023-03-28", 0.07005451970442128], ["2023-03-29", 0.04278297238079258], ["2023-03-29", 0.0430517572707005], ["2023-03-29", 0.04835190286827785], ["2023-03-31", 0.02887743860863382], ["2023-03-31", 0.033017512704679224], ["2023-03-31", 0.034682627738124465], ["2023-03-31", 0.036408761242626736], ["2023-04-01", 0.022892293478465064], ["2023-04-01", 0.023709750162171195], ["2023-04-01", 0.024579605457085832], ["2023-04-01", 0.02497626541636845], ["2023-04-01", 0.025071256757193506], ["2023-04-01", 0.025506750405052816], ["2023-04-01", 0.02557814319059255]]
|
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-first-republic-be-seized-by-th
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-01
|
Will First Republic be seized by the FDIC by the end of March?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-24
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.07099999999999998], ["2023-03-12", 0.49912009811996605], ["2023-03-13", 0.02899290984982875], ["2023-03-13", 0.036157301281777625], ["2023-03-13", 0.038450329607640235], ["2023-03-13", 0.05173350312122199], ["2023-03-13", 0.05280211196986637], ["2023-03-13", 0.05448707351772181], ["2023-03-13", 0.06999946414188814], ["2023-03-17", 0.04347702072405042], ["2023-03-18", 0.07600768983667745], ["2023-03-18", 0.07784675847765117], ["2023-03-19", 0.06179027267459652], ["2023-03-19", 0.06259234747194194], ["2023-03-19", 0.06383403450301692], ["2023-03-19", 0.0660131124518979], ["2023-03-19", 0.06882608328767326], ["2023-03-19", 0.07032147983765363], ["2023-03-19", 0.07050547972631105], ["2023-03-19", 0.07083403808367457], ["2023-03-19", 0.07135389057907725], ["2023-03-19", 0.07188119233746441], ["2023-03-19", 0.07350941020375625], ["2023-03-19", 0.07579486903617334], ["2023-03-19", 0.07885278581504507], ["2023-03-19", 0.08355828536553789], ["2023-03-19", 0.10058093905636198], ["2023-03-19", 0.10228881765629741], ["2023-03-19", 0.11187108337040318], ["2023-03-20", 0.05877203469805951], ["2023-03-20", 0.060244510354097246], ["2023-03-20", 0.06509284324887427], ["2023-03-20", 0.06553386106593181], ["2023-03-20", 0.06598071103371753], ["2023-03-20", 0.06643350828528402], ["2023-03-20", 0.06689237098519665], ["2023-03-20", 0.0673574204295604], ["2023-03-20", 0.06928202711966935], ["2023-03-20", 0.07131621409850922], ["2023-03-21", 0.06297140714835225], ["2023-03-21", 0.06338489164151656], ["2023-03-21", 0.06380367484872362], ["2023-03-21", 0.06422785811856381], ["2023-03-21", 0.0646575453847775], ["2023-03-21", 0.07425375368630135], ["2023-03-21", 0.07780455399082713], ["2023-03-21", 0.0790623692308968], ["2023-03-21", 0.08036021077973003], ["2023-03-21", 0.08379282370900783], ["2023-03-22", 0.05817737607864642], ["2023-03-22", 0.05853182555437412], ["2023-03-22", 0.0588904883662926], ["2023-03-22", 0.09367447484022731], ["2023-03-22", 0.13], ["2023-03-22", 0.14520107862580695], ["2023-03-23", 0.07374339103869972], ["2023-03-23", 0.0776130037543831], ["2023-03-23", 0.07811488167080104], ["2023-03-23", 0.08010642634458973], ["2023-03-23", 0.0858614255338968], ["2023-03-24", 0.012838977644603011], ["2023-03-24", 0.018705832206521306], ["2023-03-24", 0.026235301751634486], ["2023-03-24", 0.03338067905670019], ["2023-03-24", 0.03347111124758219], ["2023-03-24", 0.03356201903490975], ["2023-03-24", 0.034023823436064235], ["2023-03-24", 0.03518397691099057], ["2023-03-24", 0.04193131278569727], ["2023-03-24", 0.04207203096679972], ["2023-03-24", 0.06465095963706659]]
|
https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-ucla-bruins-win-the-2023-n
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the UCLA Bruins win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-24
|
Will the UCLA Bruins win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-13
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-13", 0.0474543361217043], ["2023-03-13", 0.055358113596189404], ["2023-03-13", 0.05597367082746476], ["2023-03-13", 0.07290185229502225], ["2023-03-13", 0.09781011089616543], ["2023-03-13", 0.09920580473817324], ["2023-03-13", 0.09994259382741164], ["2023-03-13", 0.10165780801683624], ["2023-03-13", 0.10238290372034607], ["2023-03-13", 0.11547518394529073], ["2023-03-13", 0.12999999999999998], ["2023-03-13", 0.14821189885936537], ["2023-03-13", 0.15897978083319456], ["2023-03-13", 0.17918938961625153], ["2023-03-13", 0.18085123383971502], ["2023-03-13", 0.1986363929021726], ["2023-03-13", 0.21000000000000013], ["2023-03-13", 0.22934749668134966], ["2023-03-13", 0.23097483224259752], ["2023-03-13", 0.27037700518154006], ["2023-03-13", 0.28490027461573725], ["2023-03-13", 0.3000671474208374], ["2023-03-13", 0.3091345659271155], ["2023-03-13", 0.3125080729026303], ["2023-03-13", 0.3252165959042228], ["2023-03-13", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-13", 0.3378378378378379], ["2023-03-13", 0.34418619523472305], ["2023-03-13", 0.352713115420731], ["2023-03-13", 0.35879038870743335], ["2023-03-13", 0.3631075818443656], ["2023-03-13", 0.383882292699001], ["2023-03-13", 0.40527264802917345], ["2023-03-13", 0.40835530557436805], ["2023-03-13", 0.4231806035232107], ["2023-03-13", 0.4636503275937464], ["2023-03-13", 0.47000000000000003], ["2023-03-13", 0.5172529296488341], ["2023-03-13", 0.517299915850576], ["2023-03-13", 0.6594519629296188], ["2023-03-13", 0.6742895876845805]]
|
https://manifold.markets/MatthewSlotkin/will-the-sp-close-higher-on-march-1
|
Price at close March 10th: $3,861.59
|
Economics & Business
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-13
|
Will the S&P close higher on March 13th than it closed on March 10th?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-03-26
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-19", 0.05242355986166533], ["2023-03-19", 0.059999999999999824], ["2023-03-19", 0.0665430821708372], ["2023-03-19", 0.0665430821708372], ["2023-03-19", 0.0665430821708372], ["2023-03-19", 0.0769150952259814], ["2023-03-21", 0.07554267219741775], ["2023-03-21", 0.0777918108398382], ["2023-03-21", 0.08141957742981942], ["2023-03-21", 0.08975393804578688], ["2023-03-22", 0.07446474879987297], ["2023-03-23", 0.07239598537588006], ["2023-03-23", 0.07341624489473315], ["2023-03-24", 0.09], ["2023-03-24", 0.1010310756962723], ["2023-03-24", 0.10242882606894868], ["2023-03-25", 0.09], ["2023-03-25", 0.1000000000000002], ["2023-03-25", 0.11000000000000046], ["2023-03-25", 0.11000000000000046], ["2023-03-25", 0.11000000000000046], ["2023-03-25", 0.11000000000000046], ["2023-03-26", 0.013472156052906716], ["2023-03-26", 0.014789306572682688], ["2023-03-26", 0.023021893423346516], ["2023-03-26", 0.023749360302654805], ["2023-03-26", 0.027381718845313735], ["2023-03-26", 0.03000000000000006], ["2023-03-26", 0.03150190106481067], ["2023-03-26", 0.032370909633728746], ["2023-03-26", 0.03455167042045073], ["2023-03-26", 0.040000000000000084], ["2023-03-26", 0.040000000000000084], ["2023-03-26", 0.040000000000000084], ["2023-03-26", 0.041644589196849414], ["2023-03-26", 0.043969016764122903], ["2023-03-26", 0.04520322360278124], ["2023-03-26", 0.04910279191112972], ["2023-03-26", 0.049102791911129796], ["2023-03-26", 0.055129972675528334], ["2023-03-26", 0.07734603932221717], ["2023-03-26", 0.07734603932221717], ["2023-03-26", 0.07734603932221717]]
|
https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-gonzaga-bulldogs-win-the-2
|
This market will resolve 'YES' if the Gonzaga Bulldogs win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-03-26
|
Will the Gonzaga Bulldogs win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 0 |
2023-04-04
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
[["2023-03-12", 0.10639915319451433], ["2023-03-12", 0.3717472118959108], ["2023-03-13", 0.15539780253732222], ["2023-03-16", 0.1347368378004162], ["2023-03-24", 0.14102324992135237], ["2023-03-24", 0.15397749662843127], ["2023-03-24", 0.16063721170726694], ["2023-03-24", 0.18760532623843013], ["2023-03-24", 0.23000000000000007], ["2023-03-25", 0.262793946694658], ["2023-03-25", 0.3], ["2023-03-25", 0.3], ["2023-03-25", 0.3], ["2023-03-25", 0.32906949815263786], ["2023-03-26", 0.31], ["2023-03-26", 0.31], ["2023-03-26", 0.31], ["2023-03-26", 0.3117884402630444], ["2023-03-26", 0.3117884402630444], ["2023-03-26", 0.3117884402630444], ["2023-03-26", 0.32942893095557646], ["2023-03-26", 0.32942893095557646], ["2023-03-26", 0.32942893095557646], ["2023-03-26", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-26", 0.33000000000000007], ["2023-03-26", 0.3314813928113022], ["2023-03-26", 0.3314813928113022], ["2023-03-26", 0.3314813928113022], ["2023-03-26", 0.3341586900719045], ["2023-03-26", 0.3377552672340069], ["2023-03-26", 0.3377552672340069], ["2023-03-26", 0.3377552672340069], ["2023-03-26", 0.33831728197171895], ["2023-03-26", 0.3400000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.3400000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.3400000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.34415737194085977], ["2023-03-26", 0.34415737194085977], ["2023-03-26", 0.348313116508485], ["2023-03-26", 0.348313116508485], ["2023-03-26", 0.3524666123437049], ["2023-03-26", 0.3546202960587091], ["2023-03-26", 0.3546202960587091], ["2023-03-26", 0.3546202960587091], ["2023-03-26", 0.3566172469656182], ["2023-03-26", 0.36], ["2023-03-26", 0.36], ["2023-03-26", 0.36], ["2023-03-26", 0.3607644169730267], ["2023-03-26", 0.36274674856743844], ["2023-03-26", 0.36490752823351363], ["2023-03-26", 0.3690459960602632], ["2023-03-26", 0.37028250244558764], ["2023-03-26", 0.37317924537672936], ["2023-03-26", 0.37730671086928264], ["2023-03-26", 0.3785578200709963], ["2023-03-26", 0.3785578200709963], ["2023-03-26", 0.3785578200709963], ["2023-03-26", 0.38], ["2023-03-26", 0.38], ["2023-03-26", 0.38], ["2023-03-26", 0.38], ["2023-03-26", 0.38000000000000006], ["2023-03-26", 0.38000000000000006], ["2023-03-26", 0.38000000000000006], ["2023-03-26", 0.38142783712797457], ["2023-03-26", 0.38999999999999985], ["2023-03-26", 0.38999999999999985], ["2023-03-26", 0.3900000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.3900000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.39999999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.4000000000000001], ["2023-03-26", 0.402060995412591], ["2023-03-26", 0.40493677090334346], ["2023-03-26", 0.4099999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.4099999999999997], ["2023-03-26", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4099999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4168147564545039], ["2023-03-26", 0.4168147564545039], ["2023-03-26", 0.4168147564545039], ["2023-03-26", 0.42], ["2023-03-26", 0.42], ["2023-03-26", 0.43], ["2023-03-26", 0.43999999999999995], ["2023-03-26", 0.4463904146504795], ["2023-03-26", 0.4499999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4531176129364263], ["2023-03-26", 0.4531176129364263], ["2023-03-26", 0.4531176129364263], ["2023-03-26", 0.454467177885335], ["2023-03-26", 0.4581729118978933], ["2023-03-26", 0.4581729118978933], ["2023-03-26", 0.4581729118978933], ["2023-03-26", 0.46619721104825246], ["2023-03-26", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4699999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.47287698102741077], ["2023-03-26", 0.4799999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.4799999999999999], ["2023-03-26", 0.48], ["2023-03-26", 0.48], ["2023-03-26", 0.48], ["2023-03-26", 0.51], ["2023-03-26", 0.5171921776522082], ["2023-03-26", 0.5280778713937229], ["2023-03-27", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-27", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-27", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-27", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-27", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-03-27", 0.4399999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.4399999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.4399999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.5086170503473888], ["2023-03-27", 0.57], ["2023-03-27", 0.5932799605366054], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.62], ["2023-03-27", 0.7599999999999999], ["2023-03-27", 0.7782279754715213], ["2023-03-27", 0.7782279754715213], ["2023-03-27", 0.7782279754715213], ["2023-03-28", 0.4368985528291708], ["2023-03-28", 0.4368985528291708], ["2023-03-28", 0.4368985528291708], ["2023-03-29", 0.4299999999999998], ["2023-03-29", 0.4299999999999998], ["2023-03-29", 0.4299999999999998], ["2023-04-01", 0.44], ["2023-04-01", 0.44], ["2023-04-02", 0.4199999999999999], ["2023-04-02", 0.4199999999999999], ["2023-04-02", 0.4199999999999999], ["2023-04-02", 0.4199999999999999], ["2023-04-02", 0.4199999999999999], ["2023-04-02", 0.42], ["2023-04-02", 0.42], ["2023-04-02", 0.42], ["2023-04-02", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-04-02", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-04-02", 0.42999999999999994], ["2023-04-02", 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|
https://manifold.markets/lnlytwn/will-a-big-east-team-win-the-2023-m
|
The following 5 teams (listed along with their correspond seedings) are coming out of the Big East conference for March Madness: Marquette - 2 Xavier - 3 UConn - 4 Creighton - 6 Providence - 11 This market will resolve YES if a team from the Big East conference wins the 2023 men's NCAA tournament. The market will resolve NO when no more Big East teams remain.
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-04
|
Will a Big East team win the 2023 men's NCAA basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 1 |
2023-04-04
|
2023-03-12
|
[]
|
BINARY
|
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0.9512330596741347], ["2023-04-04", 0.9512330596741347], ["2023-04-04", 0.9566586845365412], ["2023-04-04", 0.9604274165664223], ["2023-04-04", 0.9604274165664223], ["2023-04-04", 0.9604274165664223], ["2023-04-04", 0.9946315662874752], ["2023-04-04", 0.9963020908506557], ["2023-04-04", 0.9967070600431992], ["2023-04-04", 0.9972909618691432]]
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https://manifold.markets/prognostic8r/will-the-connecticut-huskies-win-th
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This market will resolve 'YES' if the Connecticut Huskies win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament on April 3, 2023. Starting odds are an average of sportsbook betting odds at the date of this market's creation. Market created with
|
Sports
|
Not applicable/available for this question.
| true |
2023-04-04
|
Will the Connecticut Huskies win the 2023 NCAA men's 'March Madness' basketball tournament?
|
manifold
| 1 |
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