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Mar 10

LLMs are Bayesian, in Expectation, not in Realization

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 15, 2025

A Semantic Generalization of Shannon's Information Theory and Applications

Does semantic communication require a semantic information theory parallel to Shannon's information theory, or can Shannon's work be generalized for semantic communication? This paper advocates for the latter and introduces a semantic generalization of Shannon's information theory (G theory for short). The core idea is to replace the distortion constraint with the semantic constraint, achieved by utilizing a set of truth functions as a semantic channel. These truth functions enable the expressions of semantic distortion, semantic information measures, and semantic information loss. Notably, the maximum semantic information criterion is equivalent to the maximum likelihood criterion and similar to the Regularized Least Squares criterion. This paper shows G theory's applications to daily and electronic semantic communication, machine learning, constraint control, Bayesian confirmation, portfolio theory, and information value. The improvements in machine learning methods involve multilabel learning and classification, maximum mutual information classification, mixture models, and solving latent variables. Furthermore, insights from statistical physics are discussed: Shannon information is similar to free energy; semantic information to free energy in local equilibrium systems; and information efficiency to the efficiency of free energy in performing work. The paper also proposes refining Friston's minimum free energy principle into the maximum information efficiency principle. Lastly, it compares G theory with other semantic information theories and discusses its limitation in representing the semantics of complex data.

  • 1 authors
·
May 6, 2025

From Entropy to Epiplexity: Rethinking Information for Computationally Bounded Intelligence

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 6

How Does Information Bottleneck Help Deep Learning?

Numerous deep learning algorithms have been inspired by and understood via the notion of information bottleneck, where unnecessary information is (often implicitly) minimized while task-relevant information is maximized. However, a rigorous argument for justifying why it is desirable to control information bottlenecks has been elusive. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous learning theory for justifying the benefit of information bottleneck in deep learning by mathematically relating information bottleneck to generalization errors. Our theory proves that controlling information bottleneck is one way to control generalization errors in deep learning, although it is not the only or necessary way. We investigate the merit of our new mathematical findings with experiments across a range of architectures and learning settings. In many cases, generalization errors are shown to correlate with the degree of information bottleneck: i.e., the amount of the unnecessary information at hidden layers. This paper provides a theoretical foundation for current and future methods through the lens of information bottleneck. Our new generalization bounds scale with the degree of information bottleneck, unlike the previous bounds that scale with the number of parameters, VC dimension, Rademacher complexity, stability or robustness. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/xu-ji/information-bottleneck

  • 4 authors
·
May 30, 2023

Information Shapes Koopman Representation

The Koopman operator provides a powerful framework for modeling dynamical systems and has attracted growing interest from the machine learning community. However, its infinite-dimensional nature makes identifying suitable finite-dimensional subspaces challenging, especially for deep architectures. We argue that these difficulties come from suboptimal representation learning, where latent variables fail to balance expressivity and simplicity. This tension is closely related to the information bottleneck (IB) dilemma: constructing compressed representations that are both compact and predictive. Rethinking Koopman learning through this lens, we demonstrate that latent mutual information promotes simplicity, yet an overemphasis on simplicity may cause latent space to collapse onto a few dominant modes. In contrast, expressiveness is sustained by the von Neumann entropy, which prevents such collapse and encourages mode diversity. This insight leads us to propose an information-theoretic Lagrangian formulation that explicitly balances this tradeoff. Furthermore, we propose a new algorithm based on the Lagrangian formulation that encourages both simplicity and expressiveness, leading to a stable and interpretable Koopman representation. Beyond quantitative evaluations, we further visualize the learned manifolds under our representations, observing empirical results consistent with our theoretical predictions. Finally, we validate our approach across a diverse range of dynamical systems, demonstrating improved performance over existing Koopman learning methods. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/Wenxuan52/InformationKoopman.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 14, 2025

Minimum Entropy Coupling with Bottleneck

This paper investigates a novel lossy compression framework operating under logarithmic loss, designed to handle situations where the reconstruction distribution diverges from the source distribution. This framework is especially relevant for applications that require joint compression and retrieval, and in scenarios involving distributional shifts due to processing. We show that the proposed formulation extends the classical minimum entropy coupling framework by integrating a bottleneck, allowing for a controlled degree of stochasticity in the coupling. We explore the decomposition of the Minimum Entropy Coupling with Bottleneck (MEC-B) into two distinct optimization problems: Entropy-Bounded Information Maximization (EBIM) for the encoder, and Minimum Entropy Coupling (MEC) for the decoder. Through extensive analysis, we provide a greedy algorithm for EBIM with guaranteed performance, and characterize the optimal solution near functional mappings, yielding significant theoretical insights into the structural complexity of this problem. Furthermore, we illustrate the practical application of MEC-B through experiments in Markov Coding Games (MCGs) under rate limits. These games simulate a communication scenario within a Markov Decision Process, where an agent must transmit a compressed message from a sender to a receiver through its actions. Our experiments highlight the trade-offs between MDP rewards and receiver accuracy across various compression rates, showcasing the efficacy of our method compared to conventional compression baseline.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 28, 2024 2

An information theoretic necessary condition for perfect reconstruction

A new information theoretic condition is presented for reconstructing a discrete random variable X based on the knowledge of a set of discrete functions of X. The reconstruction condition is derived from Shannon's 1953 lattice theory with two entropic metrics of Shannon and Rajski. Because such a theoretical material is relatively unknown and appears quite dispersed in different references, we first provide a synthetic description (with complete proofs) of its concepts, such as total, common and complementary informations. Definitions and properties of the two entropic metrics are also fully detailed and shown compatible with the lattice structure. A new geometric interpretation of such a lattice structure is then investigated that leads to a necessary (and sometimes sufficient) condition for reconstructing the discrete random variable X given a set { X_1,ldots,X_{n} } of elements in the lattice generated by X. Finally, this condition is illustrated in five specific examples of perfect reconstruction problems: reconstruction of a symmetric random variable from the knowledge of its sign and absolute value, reconstruction of a word from a set of linear combinations, reconstruction of an integer from its prime signature (fundamental theorem of arithmetic) and from its remainders modulo a set of coprime integers (Chinese remainder theorem), and reconstruction of the sorting permutation of a list from a minimal set of pairwise comparisons.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 27, 2023

Cauchy-Schwarz Divergence Information Bottleneck for Regression

The information bottleneck (IB) approach is popular to improve the generalization, robustness and explainability of deep neural networks. Essentially, it aims to find a minimum sufficient representation t by striking a trade-off between a compression term I(x;t) and a prediction term I(y;t), where I(cdot;cdot) refers to the mutual information (MI). MI is for the IB for the most part expressed in terms of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which in the regression case corresponds to prediction based on mean squared error (MSE) loss with Gaussian assumption and compression approximated by variational inference. In this paper, we study the IB principle for the regression problem and develop a new way to parameterize the IB with deep neural networks by exploiting favorable properties of the Cauchy-Schwarz (CS) divergence. By doing so, we move away from MSE-based regression and ease estimation by avoiding variational approximations or distributional assumptions. We investigate the improved generalization ability of our proposed CS-IB and demonstrate strong adversarial robustness guarantees. We demonstrate its superior performance on six real-world regression tasks over other popular deep IB approaches. We additionally observe that the solutions discovered by CS-IB always achieve the best trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane. The code is available at https://github.com/SJYuCNEL/Cauchy-Schwarz-Information-Bottleneck.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 27, 2024

Does Sparsity Help in Learning Misspecified Linear Bandits?

Recently, the study of linear misspecified bandits has generated intriguing implications of the hardness of learning in bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, Du et al. (2020) show that even if a learner is given linear features in R^d that approximate the rewards in a bandit or RL with a uniform error of varepsilon, searching for an O(varepsilon)-optimal action requires pulling at least Omega(exp(d)) queries. Furthermore, Lattimore et al. (2020) show that a degraded O(varepsilond)-optimal solution can be learned within poly(d/varepsilon) queries. Yet it is unknown whether a structural assumption on the ground-truth parameter, such as sparsity, could break the varepsilond barrier. In this paper, we address this question by showing that algorithms can obtain O(varepsilon)-optimal actions by querying O(varepsilon^{-s}d^s) actions, where s is the sparsity parameter, removing the exp(d)-dependence. We then establish information-theoretical lower bounds, i.e., Omega(exp(s)), to show that our upper bound on sample complexity is nearly tight if one demands an error O(s^{delta}varepsilon) for 0<delta<1. For deltageq 1, we further show that poly(s/varepsilon) queries are possible when the linear features are "good" and even in general settings. These results provide a nearly complete picture of how sparsity can help in misspecified bandit learning and provide a deeper understanding of when linear features are "useful" for bandit and reinforcement learning with misspecification.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 29, 2023

Learning Efficient Coding of Natural Images with Maximum Manifold Capacity Representations

The efficient coding hypothesis proposes that the response properties of sensory systems are adapted to the statistics of their inputs such that they capture maximal information about the environment, subject to biological constraints. While elegant, information theoretic properties are notoriously difficult to measure in practical settings or to employ as objective functions in optimization. This difficulty has necessitated that computational models designed to test the hypothesis employ several different information metrics ranging from approximations and lower bounds to proxy measures like reconstruction error. Recent theoretical advances have characterized a novel and ecologically relevant efficiency metric, the manifold capacity, which is the number of object categories that may be represented in a linearly separable fashion. However, calculating manifold capacity is a computationally intensive iterative procedure that until now has precluded its use as an objective. Here we outline the simplifying assumptions that allow manifold capacity to be optimized directly, yielding Maximum Manifold Capacity Representations (MMCR). The resulting method is closely related to and inspired by advances in the field of self supervised learning (SSL), and we demonstrate that MMCRs are competitive with state of the art results on standard SSL benchmarks. Empirical analyses reveal differences between MMCRs and representations learned by other SSL frameworks, and suggest a mechanism by which manifold compression gives rise to class separability. Finally we evaluate a set of SSL methods on a suite of neural predictivity benchmarks, and find MMCRs are higly competitive as models of the ventral stream.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 6, 2023

Wasserstein Dependency Measure for Representation Learning

Mutual information maximization has emerged as a powerful learning objective for unsupervised representation learning obtaining state-of-the-art performance in applications such as object recognition, speech recognition, and reinforcement learning. However, such approaches are fundamentally limited since a tight lower bound of mutual information requires sample size exponential in the mutual information. This limits the applicability of these approaches for prediction tasks with high mutual information, such as in video understanding or reinforcement learning. In these settings, such techniques are prone to overfit, both in theory and in practice, and capture only a few of the relevant factors of variation. This leads to incomplete representations that are not optimal for downstream tasks. In this work, we empirically demonstrate that mutual information-based representation learning approaches do fail to learn complete representations on a number of designed and real-world tasks. To mitigate these problems we introduce the Wasserstein dependency measure, which learns more complete representations by using the Wasserstein distance instead of the KL divergence in the mutual information estimator. We show that a practical approximation to this theoretically motivated solution, constructed using Lipschitz constraint techniques from the GAN literature, achieves substantially improved results on tasks where incomplete representations are a major challenge.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 27, 2019

Variational Autoencoders for Collaborative Filtering

We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research.We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 15, 2018

Demystifying Local and Global Fairness Trade-offs in Federated Learning Using Partial Information Decomposition

This work presents an information-theoretic perspective to group fairness trade-offs in federated learning (FL) with respect to sensitive attributes, such as gender, race, etc. Existing works often focus on either global fairness (overall disparity of the model across all clients) or local fairness (disparity of the model at each client), without always considering their trade-offs. There is a lack of understanding regarding the interplay between global and local fairness in FL, particularly under data heterogeneity, and if and when one implies the other. To address this gap, we leverage a body of work in information theory called partial information decomposition (PID), which first identifies three sources of unfairness in FL, namely, Unique Disparity, Redundant Disparity, and Masked Disparity. We demonstrate how these three disparities contribute to global and local fairness using canonical examples. This decomposition helps us derive fundamental limits on the trade-off between global and local fairness, highlighting where they agree or disagree. We introduce the Accuracy and Global-Local Fairness Optimality Problem (AGLFOP), a convex optimization that defines the theoretical limits of accuracy and fairness trade-offs, identifying the best possible performance any FL strategy can attain given a dataset and client distribution. We also present experimental results on synthetic datasets and the ADULT dataset to support our theoretical findings.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 20, 2023

Structured Knowledge Accumulation: The Principle of Entropic Least Action in Forward-Only Neural Learning

This paper aims to extend the Structured Knowledge Accumulation (SKA) framework recently proposed by mahi2025ska. We introduce two core concepts: the Tensor Net function and the characteristic time property of neural learning. First, we reinterpret the learning rate as a time step in a continuous system. This transforms neural learning from discrete optimization into continuous-time evolution. We show that learning dynamics remain consistent when the product of learning rate and iteration steps stays constant. This reveals a time-invariant behavior and identifies an intrinsic timescale of the network. Second, we define the Tensor Net function as a measure that captures the relationship between decision probabilities, entropy gradients, and knowledge change. Additionally, we define its zero-crossing as the equilibrium state between decision probabilities and entropy gradients. We show that the convergence of entropy and knowledge flow provides a natural stopping condition, replacing arbitrary thresholds with an information-theoretic criterion. We also establish that SKA dynamics satisfy a variational principle based on the Euler-Lagrange equation. These findings extend SKA into a continuous and self-organizing learning model. The framework links computational learning with physical systems that evolve by natural laws. By understanding learning as a time-based process, we open new directions for building efficient, robust, and biologically-inspired AI systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 4, 2025

The Universality Lens: Why Even Highly Over-Parametrized Models Learn Well

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 9, 2025

CoT Information: Improved Sample Complexity under Chain-of-Thought Supervision

Learning complex functions that involve multi-step reasoning poses a significant challenge for standard supervised learning from input-output examples. Chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision, which provides intermediate reasoning steps together with the final output, has emerged as a powerful empirical technique, underpinning much of the recent progress in the reasoning capabilities of large language models. This paper develops a statistical theory of learning under CoT supervision. A key characteristic of the CoT setting, in contrast to standard supervision, is the mismatch between the training objective (CoT risk) and the test objective (end-to-end risk). A central part of our analysis, distinguished from prior work, is explicitly linking those two types of risk to achieve sharper sample complexity bounds. This is achieved via the *CoT information measure* I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), which quantifies the additional discriminative power gained from observing the reasoning process. The main theoretical results demonstrate how CoT supervision can yield significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision. Specifically, it is shown that the sample complexity required to achieve a target E2E error epsilon scales as d/I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), where d is a measure of hypothesis class complexity, which can be much faster than standard d/epsilon rates. Information-theoretic lower bounds in terms of the CoT information are also obtained. Together, these results suggest that CoT information is a fundamental measure of statistical complexity for learning under chain-of-thought supervision.

  • 3 authors
·
May 21, 2025

Information Bottleneck Analysis of Deep Neural Networks via Lossy Compression

The Information Bottleneck (IB) principle offers an information-theoretic framework for analyzing the training process of deep neural networks (DNNs). Its essence lies in tracking the dynamics of two mutual information (MI) values: one between the hidden layer and the class label, and the other between the hidden layer and the DNN input. According to the hypothesis put forth by Shwartz-Ziv and Tishby (2017), the training process consists of two distinct phases: fitting and compression. The latter phase is believed to account for the good generalization performance exhibited by DNNs. Due to the challenging nature of estimating MI between high-dimensional random vectors, this hypothesis has only been verified for toy NNs or specific types of NNs, such as quantized NNs and dropout NNs. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive framework for conducting IB analysis of general NNs. Our approach leverages the stochastic NN method proposed by Goldfeld et al. (2019) and incorporates a compression step to overcome the obstacles associated with high dimensionality. In other words, we estimate the MI between the compressed representations of high-dimensional random vectors. The proposed method is supported by both theoretical and practical justifications. Notably, we demonstrate the accuracy of our estimator through synthetic experiments featuring predefined MI values. Finally, we perform IB analysis on a close-to-real-scale convolutional DNN, which reveals new features of the MI dynamics.

  • 6 authors
·
May 13, 2023

MIST: Mutual Information Via Supervised Training

We propose a fully data-driven approach to designing mutual information (MI) estimators. Since any MI estimator is a function of the observed sample from two random variables, we parameterize this function with a neural network (MIST) and train it end-to-end to predict MI values. Training is performed on a large meta-dataset of 625,000 synthetic joint distributions with known ground-truth MI. To handle variable sample sizes and dimensions, we employ a two-dimensional attention scheme ensuring permutation invariance across input samples. To quantify uncertainty, we optimize a quantile regression loss, enabling the estimator to approximate the sampling distribution of MI rather than return a single point estimate. This research program departs from prior work by taking a fully empirical route, trading universal theoretical guarantees for flexibility and efficiency. Empirically, the learned estimators largely outperform classical baselines across sample sizes and dimensions, including on joint distributions unseen during training. The resulting quantile-based intervals are well-calibrated and more reliable than bootstrap-based confidence intervals, while inference is orders of magnitude faster than existing neural baselines. Beyond immediate empirical gains, this framework yields trainable, fully differentiable estimators that can be embedded into larger learning pipelines. Moreover, exploiting MI's invariance to invertible transformations, meta-datasets can be adapted to arbitrary data modalities via normalizing flows, enabling flexible training for diverse target meta-distributions.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025 2

A Tutorial on Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 8, 2018

Conformal Information Pursuit for Interactively Guiding Large Language Models

A significant use case of instruction-finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) is to solve question-answering tasks interactively. In this setting, an LLM agent is tasked with making a prediction by sequentially querying relevant information from the user, as opposed to a single-turn conversation. This paper explores sequential querying strategies that aim to minimize the expected number of queries. One such strategy is Information Pursuit (IP), a greedy algorithm that at each iteration selects the query that maximizes information gain or equivalently minimizes uncertainty. However, obtaining accurate estimates of mutual information or conditional entropy for LLMs is very difficult in practice due to over- or under-confident LLM probabilities, which leads to suboptimal query selection and predictive performance. To better estimate the uncertainty at each iteration, we propose Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP), an alternative approach to sequential information gain based on conformal prediction sets. More specifically, C-IP leverages a relationship between prediction sets and conditional entropy at each iteration to estimate uncertainty based on the average size of conformal prediction sets. In contrast to conditional entropy, we find that conformal prediction sets are a distribution-free and robust method of measuring uncertainty. Experiments with 20 Questions show that C-IP obtains better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains compared to previous approaches to IP and uncertainty-based chain-of-thought methods. Furthermore, extending to an interactive medical setting between a doctor and a patient on the MediQ dataset, C-IP achieves competitive performance with direct single-turn prediction while offering greater interpretability.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 3, 2025

Asymptotics of Language Model Alignment

Let p denote a generative language model. Let r denote a reward model that returns a scalar that captures the degree at which a draw from p is preferred. The goal of language model alignment is to alter p to a new distribution phi that results in a higher expected reward while keeping phi close to p. A popular alignment method is the KL-constrained reinforcement learning (RL), which chooses a distribution phi_Delta that maximizes E_{phi_{Delta}} r(y) subject to a relative entropy constraint KL(phi_Delta || p) leq Delta. Another simple alignment method is best-of-N, where N samples are drawn from p and one with highest reward is selected. In this paper, we offer a closed-form characterization of the optimal KL-constrained RL solution. We demonstrate that any alignment method that achieves a comparable trade-off between KL divergence and reward must approximate the optimal KL-constrained RL solution in terms of relative entropy. To further analyze the properties of alignment methods, we introduce two simplifying assumptions: we let the language model be memoryless, and the reward model be linear. Although these assumptions may not reflect complex real-world scenarios, they enable a precise characterization of the asymptotic behavior of both the best-of-N alignment, and the KL-constrained RL method, in terms of information-theoretic quantities. We prove that the reward of the optimal KL-constrained RL solution satisfies a large deviation principle, and we fully characterize its rate function. We also show that the rate of growth of the scaled cumulants of the reward is characterized by a proper Renyi cross entropy. Finally, we show that best-of-N is asymptotically equivalent to KL-constrained RL solution by proving that their expected rewards are asymptotically equal, and concluding that the two distributions must be close in KL divergence.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 2, 2024

Accurate Estimation of Mutual Information in High Dimensional Data

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in the high-dimensional, undersampled regimes typical of modern experiments. Recent machine learning-based estimators show promise, but their accuracy depends sensitively on dataset size, structure, and hyperparameters, with no accepted tests to detect failures. We close these gaps through a systematic evaluation of classical and neural MI estimators across standard benchmarks and new synthetic datasets tailored to challenging high-dimensional, undersampled regimes. We contribute: (i) a practical protocol for reliable MI estimation with explicit checks for statistical consistency; (ii) confidence intervals (error bars around estimates) that existing neural MI estimator do not provide; and (iii) a new class of probabilistic critics designed for high-dimensional, high-information settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocol with computational experiments, showing that it consistently matches or surpasses existing methods while uniquely quantifying its own reliability. We show that reliable MI estimation is sometimes achievable even in severely undersampled, high-dimensional datasets, provided they admit accurate low-dimensional representations. This broadens the scope of applicability of neural MI estimators and clarifies when such estimators can be trusted.

  • 3 authors
·
May 30, 2025

Fixed-Budget Differentially Private Best Arm Identification

We study best arm identification (BAI) in linear bandits in the fixed-budget regime under differential privacy constraints, when the arm rewards are supported on the unit interval. Given a finite budget T and a privacy parameter varepsilon>0, the goal is to minimise the error probability in finding the arm with the largest mean after T sampling rounds, subject to the constraint that the policy of the decision maker satisfies a certain {\em varepsilon-differential privacy} (varepsilon-DP) constraint. We construct a policy satisfying the varepsilon-DP constraint (called {\sc DP-BAI}) by proposing the principle of {\em maximum absolute determinants}, and derive an upper bound on its error probability. Furthermore, we derive a minimax lower bound on the error probability, and demonstrate that the lower and the upper bounds decay exponentially in T, with exponents in the two bounds matching order-wise in (a) the sub-optimality gaps of the arms, (b) varepsilon, and (c) the problem complexity that is expressible as the sum of two terms, one characterising the complexity of standard fixed-budget BAI (without privacy constraints), and the other accounting for the varepsilon-DP constraint. Additionally, we present some auxiliary results that contribute to the derivation of the lower bound on the error probability. These results, we posit, may be of independent interest and could prove instrumental in proving lower bounds on error probabilities in several other bandit problems. Whereas prior works provide results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime without privacy constraints or in the fixed-confidence regime with privacy constraints, our work fills the gap in the literature by providing the results for BAI in the fixed-budget regime under the varepsilon-DP constraint.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 17, 2024

Which Invariance Should We Transfer? A Causal Minimax Learning Approach

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 5, 2021

A Markov Categorical Framework for Language Modeling

Auto-regressive language models factorize sequence probabilities and are trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective. While empirically powerful, a deep theoretical understanding of why this simple objective yields such versatile representations remains elusive. This work introduces a unifying analytical framework using Markov Categories (MCs) to deconstruct the AR generation process and the NLL objective. We model the single-step generation map as a composition of Markov kernels in the category Stoch. This compositional view, when enriched with statistical divergences, allows us to dissect information flow and learned geometry. Our framework makes three main contributions. First, we provide a formal, information-theoretic rationale for the success of modern speculative decoding methods like EAGLE, quantifying the information surplus in hidden states that these methods exploit. Second, we formalize how NLL minimization forces the model to learn not just the next token, but the data's intrinsic conditional stochasticity, a process we analyze using categorical entropy. Third, and most centrally, we prove that NLL training acts as an implicit form of spectral contrastive learning. By analyzing the information geometry of the model's prediction head, we show that NLL implicitly forces the learned representation space to align with the eigenspectrum of a predictive similarity operator, thereby learning a geometrically structured space without explicit contrastive pairs. This compositional and information-geometric perspective reveals the deep structural principles underlying the effectiveness of modern LMs. Project Page: https://github.com/asiresearch/lm-theory

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 25, 2025

The Condition Number as a Scale-Invariant Proxy for Information Encoding in Neural Units

This paper explores the relationship between the condition number of a neural network's weight tensor and the extent of information encoded by the associated processing unit, viewed through the lens of information theory. It argues that a high condition number, though not sufficient for effective knowledge encoding, may indicate that the unit has learned to selectively amplify and compress information. This intuition is formalized for linear units with Gaussian inputs, linking the condition number and the transformation's log-volume scaling factor to the characteristics of the output entropy and the geometric properties of the learned transformation. The analysis demonstrates that for a fixed weight norm, a concentrated distribution of singular values (high condition number) corresponds to reduced overall information transfer, indicating a specialized and efficient encoding strategy. Furthermore, the linear stage entropy bound provides an upper limit on post-activation information for contractive, element-wise nonlinearities, supporting the condition number as a scale-invariant proxy for encoding capacity in practical neural networks. An empirical case study applies these principles to guide selective fine-tuning of Large Language Models for both a new task and a new input modality. The experiments show that the proposed method, named KappaTune, effectively mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Unlike many existing catastrophic forgetting mitigation methods that rely on access to pre-training statistics, which are often unavailable, this selective fine-tuning approach offers a way to bypass this common requirement.

  • 1 authors
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Jun 19, 2025 1

Learning to Relax: Setting Solver Parameters Across a Sequence of Linear System Instances

Solving a linear system Ax=b is a fundamental scientific computing primitive for which numerous solvers and preconditioners have been developed. These come with parameters whose optimal values depend on the system being solved and are often impossible or too expensive to identify; thus in practice sub-optimal heuristics are used. We consider the common setting in which many related linear systems need to be solved, e.g. during a single numerical simulation. In this scenario, can we sequentially choose parameters that attain a near-optimal overall number of iterations, without extra matrix computations? We answer in the affirmative for Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR), a standard solver whose parameter omega has a strong impact on its runtime. For this method, we prove that a bandit online learning algorithm--using only the number of iterations as feedback--can select parameters for a sequence of instances such that the overall cost approaches that of the best fixed omega as the sequence length increases. Furthermore, when given additional structural information, we show that a contextual bandit method asymptotically achieves the performance of the instance-optimal policy, which selects the best omega for each instance. Our work provides the first learning-theoretic treatment of high-precision linear system solvers and the first end-to-end guarantees for data-driven scientific computing, demonstrating theoretically the potential to speed up numerical methods using well-understood learning algorithms.

  • 4 authors
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Oct 3, 2023

Information-Theoretic Causal Bounds under Unmeasured Confounding

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes; require external inputs (for example, instrumental variables, proxies, or user-specified sensitivity parameters); necessitate full structural causal model specifications; or focus solely on population-level averages while neglecting covariate-conditional effects. We overcome all four limitations simultaneously by establishing novel information-theoretic, data-driven divergence bounds. Our key theoretical contribution shows that the f-divergence between the observational distribution P(Y | A = a, X = x) and the interventional distribution P(Y | do(A = a), X = x) is upper bounded by a function of the propensity score alone. This result enables sharp partial identification of conditional causal effects directly from observational data, without requiring external sensitivity parameters, auxiliary variables, full structural specifications, or outcome boundedness assumptions. For practical implementation, we develop a semiparametric estimator satisfying Neyman orthogonality (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), which ensures root-n consistent inference even when nuisance functions are estimated via flexible machine learning methods. Simulation studies and real-world data applications, implemented in the GitHub repository (https://github.com/yonghanjung/Information-Theretic-Bounds), demonstrate that our framework provides tight and valid causal bounds across a wide range of data-generating processes.

  • 2 authors
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Jan 23

Sparse Linear Regression is Easy on Random Supports

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

  • 3 authors
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Nov 8, 2025

Opening the Black Box of Deep Neural Networks via Information

Despite their great success, there is still no comprehensive theoretical understanding of learning with Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) or their inner organization. Previous work proposed to analyze DNNs in the Information Plane; i.e., the plane of the Mutual Information values that each layer preserves on the input and output variables. They suggested that the goal of the network is to optimize the Information Bottleneck (IB) tradeoff between compression and prediction, successively, for each layer. In this work we follow up on this idea and demonstrate the effectiveness of the Information-Plane visualization of DNNs. Our main results are: (i) most of the training epochs in standard DL are spent on {\emph compression} of the input to efficient representation and not on fitting the training labels. (ii) The representation compression phase begins when the training errors becomes small and the Stochastic Gradient Decent (SGD) epochs change from a fast drift to smaller training error into a stochastic relaxation, or random diffusion, constrained by the training error value. (iii) The converged layers lie on or very close to the Information Bottleneck (IB) theoretical bound, and the maps from the input to any hidden layer and from this hidden layer to the output satisfy the IB self-consistent equations. This generalization through noise mechanism is unique to Deep Neural Networks and absent in one layer networks. (iv) The training time is dramatically reduced when adding more hidden layers. Thus the main advantage of the hidden layers is computational. This can be explained by the reduced relaxation time, as this it scales super-linearly (exponentially for simple diffusion) with the information compression from the previous layer.

  • 2 authors
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Mar 2, 2017

On the Provable Advantage of Unsupervised Pretraining

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

  • 4 authors
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Mar 2, 2023

Revisiting Diffusion Model Predictions Through Dimensionality

Recent advances in diffusion and flow matching models have highlighted a shift in the preferred prediction target -- moving from noise (varepsilon) and velocity (v) to direct data (x) prediction -- particularly in high-dimensional settings. However, a formal explanation of why the optimal target depends on the specific properties of the data remains elusive. In this work, we provide a theoretical framework based on a generalized prediction formulation that accommodates arbitrary output targets, of which varepsilon-, v-, and x-prediction are special cases. We derive the analytical relationship between data's geometry and the optimal prediction target, offering a rigorous justification for why x-prediction becomes superior when the ambient dimension significantly exceeds the data's intrinsic dimension. Furthermore, while our theory identifies dimensionality as the governing factor for the optimal prediction target, the intrinsic dimension of manifold-bound data is typically intractable to estimate in practice. To bridge this gap, we propose k-Diff, a framework that employs a data-driven approach to learn the optimal prediction parameter k directly from data, bypassing the need for explicit dimension estimation. Extensive experiments in both latent-space and pixel-space image generation demonstrate that k-Diff consistently outperforms fixed-target baselines across varying architectures and data scales, providing a principled and automated approach to enhancing generative performance.

  • 2 authors
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Jan 29 2