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+[{"id": "bdG6qwMxQxPiAGRenU7B", "creatorId": "S3quHYCnS6Xo4WBpy2j6Iw8QkCF3", "creatorUsername": "SarkanyVar", "creatorName": "S\u00e1rk\u00e1ny V\u00e1r", "createdTime": 1698392758709, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSarkanyVar%2FI-JMrAPQ2M.png?alt=media&token=889b73b2-5783-437c-bbb0-cfdf3b8f280b", "closeTime": 1698422340000, "question": "[\u1e40130 subsidy] Will Extratropical Cyclone Tammy become tropical again?", "slug": "m100-subsidy-will-extratropical-cyc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SarkanyVar/m100-subsidy-will-extratropical-cyc", "pool": {"NO": 3505.838604251141, "YES": 53.77275408825474}, "probability": 0.9936379844661697, "p": 0.7054962217831541, "totalLiquidity": 280.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4753.515737932169, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698422652485, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698422748125, "lastBetTime": 1698419217923, "lastCommentTime": 1698422747173, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tammy, formerly a hurricane over the Atlantic, had merged with a cold front and become extratropical east to Bermuda as of 26 Oct, 6am UTC. However, the National Hurricane Center forecast a moderate probability for Tammy to regain tropical characteristics in 2-7 days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_xdeCRjR2m.png?alt=media&token=7f57157f-2426-4ae9-a310-7d8dd67e3686", "title": null}}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Tropical Weather Outlook\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n200 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023\n\nFor the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:\n\n1. Northwestern Atlantic (Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy):\nA strong extratropical cyclone (formerly Tammy) associated with an occluded front is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. This system is forecast to become separated from the front later today, and environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive over the northwestern Atlantic to the east of Bermuda through Saturday. Regardless of tropical redevelopment, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda during the next couple of days. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. For additional information, including storm and gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from the Bermuda Weather Service.\n* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.\n* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Tammy become a tropical cyclone again?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Tammy becomes a tropical cyclone again, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "as deemed by the NHC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". The means if the NHC starts issuing advisories again for Tammy and states that Tammy has become tropical again, this market resolves YES. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO if the NHC stops marking the disturbance associated with Tammy in its ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve based on advisories and outlooks from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NHC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/OTIS.shtml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not bet on this market, but I will put \u1e40100 in as subsidy.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hurricanes", "2023-hurricane-season", "weather", "natural-disasters", "extreme-weather", "bermuda"], "textDescription": "Background\n\nTammy, formerly a hurricane over the Atlantic, had merged with a cold front and become extratropical east to Bermuda as of 26 Oct, 6am UTC. However, the National Hurricane Center forecast a moderate probability for Tammy to regain tropical characteristics in 2-7 days.\n\n[image]Tropical Weather Outlook\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n200 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023\n\nFor the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:\n\n1. Northwestern Atlantic (Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy):\nA strong extratropical cyclone (formerly Tammy) associated with an occluded front is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. This system is forecast to become separated from the front later today, and environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive over the northwestern Atlantic to the east of Bermuda through Saturday. Regardless of tropical redevelopment, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to Bermuda during the next couple of days. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. For additional information, including storm and gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from the Bermuda Weather Service.\n* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.\n* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.\n\nWill Tammy become a tropical cyclone again?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nResolves YES if Tammy becomes a tropical cyclone again, as deemed by the NHC. The means if the NHC starts issuing advisories again for Tammy and states that Tammy has become tropical again, this market resolves YES. \n\nResolves NO if the NHC stops marking the disturbance associated with Tammy in its Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.\n\nWill resolve based on advisories and outlooks from NHC.\n\nI will not bet on this market, but I will put \u1e40100 in as subsidy.\n"}, {"id": "mirPHs2eozyjPRcnx2zX", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1674332079805, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will the US issue debt exceeding the debt ceiling in 2023? (e.g. by the 14th Amendment or \"least illegal\" principle)", "slug": "will-the-us-issue-more-debt-above-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-issue-more-debt-above-t", "pool": {"NO": 350.9596693578362, "YES": 4402.102572873126}, "probability": 0.01629550621700277, "p": 0.17203543070830343, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5449.769343090197, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704136464861, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704136465197, "lastBetTime": 1695431197615, "lastCommentTime": 1684945640977, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if in 2023, the US issues debt exceeding the statutory debt ceiling, otherwise NO. (I.e. if US debt ever exceeds the then-current statutory limits, that's a YES.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US is facing a debt ceiling crisis, and if no action is taken could default on its obligations (which is illegal). Faced between a choice between illegally defaulting on obligations that were already mandated by Congress, and illegally issuing more debt, it is possible that the US could choose the latter as the \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "least illegal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22684328/us-debt-ceiling-government-shutdown-biden-democrats", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\" option. However, it is likely that such a debt issuance would be challenged in the courts and therefore market rates for the debt would be much higher than normal.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Another possibility is invoking the 14th Amendment, which states \u201cThe validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law \u2026 shall not be questioned.\u201d According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Vox", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22684328/us-debt-ceiling-government-shutdown-biden-democrats", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"Some legal scholars have argued that this clause renders the debt ceiling unconstitutional\" although there is not a legal consensus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In either of those scenarios, the US would be exceeding the statutory debt limit, and this market would resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(The constitutionality of the statutory debt limit will not matter for this market's resolution. If the US exceeds it, that is a YES resolution, even if it is later struck down in the courts.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other workarounds involve avoiding the debt limit (e.g. minting the coin, issuing premium bonds) and those would not qualify for a YES resolution. In particular, issuing debt via \"special purpose entities\" which are not subject to the debt limit would not qualify for YES resolution. This market only resolves YES if the US exceeds the statutory debt limit.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is discovered in 2023 that the US accidentally issued debt exceeding the statutory debt limit, that would also resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debt ceiling is raised and the US government issues debt above the old limit but below the new limit, that does not count as YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FeDF7oSHIwp.png?alt=media&token=6860e2ab-aed1-434d-8035-78cf03eb9798", "groupSlugs": ["mint-the-coin", "us-politics", "economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if in 2023, the US issues debt exceeding the statutory debt ceiling, otherwise NO. (I.e. if US debt ever exceeds the then-current statutory limits, that's a YES.)\n\nContext\n\nThe US is facing a debt ceiling crisis, and if no action is taken could default on its obligations (which is illegal). Faced between a choice between illegally defaulting on obligations that were already mandated by Congress, and illegally issuing more debt, it is possible that the US could choose the latter as the \"least illegal\" option. However, it is likely that such a debt issuance would be challenged in the courts and therefore market rates for the debt would be much higher than normal.\n\nAnother possibility is invoking the 14th Amendment, which states \u201cThe validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law \u2026 shall not be questioned.\u201d According to Vox, \"Some legal scholars have argued that this clause renders the debt ceiling unconstitutional\" although there is not a legal consensus.\n\nIn either of those scenarios, the US would be exceeding the statutory debt limit, and this market would resolve YES.\n\n(The constitutionality of the statutory debt limit will not matter for this market's resolution. If the US exceeds it, that is a YES resolution, even if it is later struck down in the courts.)\n\nOther workarounds involve avoiding the debt limit (e.g. minting the coin, issuing premium bonds) and those would not qualify for a YES resolution. In particular, issuing debt via \"special purpose entities\" which are not subject to the debt limit would not qualify for YES resolution. This market only resolves YES if the US exceeds the statutory debt limit.\n\nIf it is discovered in 2023 that the US accidentally issued debt exceeding the statutory debt limit, that would also resolve YES.\n\nIf the debt ceiling is raised and the US government issues debt above the old limit but below the new limit, that does not count as YES"}, {"id": "btcdnK7sTJB5aHDYtncE", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081452769, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703977200000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 30 than it closed on December 29?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-3-52b92cda38ae", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-3-52b92cda38ae", "pool": {"NO": 128.00901844909296, "YES": 294.1791614620127}, "probability": 0.3402396635596676, "p": 0.5423636578720291, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 659.8616783512826, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703986869320, "resolutionProbability": 0.34, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703986869637, "lastBetTime": 1703977076111, "lastCommentTime": 1703986862166, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F31e9a4636966.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "B5L2IKyrz1J6pRNMhXO1", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705463001491, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710639237000, "question": "Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary?", "slug": "will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5f5b53f3d46b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-5f5b53f3d46b", "pool": {"NO": 21107.40714036322, "YES": 325.5446416777413}, "probability": 0.9975772162958898, "p": 0.8639547305910991, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30673.09046792079, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710639237000, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 40, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710639237704, "lastBetTime": 1710639233670, "lastCommentTime": 1705874653267, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F98e71f352305.jpg", "textDescription": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled"}, {"id": "0HfszGrz0rfUSOFhqYm0", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1662160186674, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1667015940000, "question": "Will US mortgage rates on 10/27 be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)?", "slug": "will-us-mortgage-rates-in-late-octo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-us-mortgage-rates-in-late-octo", "pool": {"NO": 3016.971987674394, "YES": 110.77285979056217}, "probability": 0.9954907123606553, "p": 0.8901788678245706, "totalLiquidity": 220, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2893.600307122669, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1667045763256, "resolutionProbability": 0.9954907123606553, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667045760245, "lastBetTime": 1666979510878, "lastCommentTime": 1667045758100, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for 10/27 is strictly greater than 5.66%, the value on 9/1. Resolves NO if it is <= 5.66%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 19, 2:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will US mortgage rates in late October be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will US mortgage rates on 10/27 be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "housing-markets", "jacks-personal-housing-questions"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the US average 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms for 10/27 is strictly greater than 5.66%, the value on 9/1. Resolves NO if it is <= 5.66%.\n\nSep 19, 2:44pm: Will US mortgage rates in late October be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)? \u2192 Will US mortgage rates on 10/27 be higher than they were on 9/1 (5.66%)?\n\n"}, {"id": "zdmh6d4rFBMxyhCF9HEo", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1704567918683, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1706953666459, "question": "Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale IN February, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal-8460b517ddaa", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal-8460b517ddaa", "pool": {"NO": 9972.71382257156, "YES": 510.96859161911743}, "probability": 0.9935930599612085, "p": 0.8882159526024733, "totalLiquidity": 1020, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21899.9969231063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706953666459, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 52, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706953667139, "lastBetTime": 1706953659288, "lastCommentTime": 1706909418782, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pacific Time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "## Please note that this market is specifically for whether it goes on sale in FEBRUARY. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- If it goes on sale on January, or March, or any month after that, this market will resolve to no. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- This market resolves to YES only if the product is available for purchase by the end users in Feb", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2F509f43852c4b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple-vision-pro", "technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "Pacific Time.\n\nGoes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.\n\n## Please note that this market is specifically for whether it goes on sale in FEBRUARY. \n\n- If it goes on sale on January, or March, or any month after that, this market will resolve to no. \n- This market resolves to YES only if the product is available for purchase by the end users in Feb"}, {"id": "WOVwOXfPjdaZe6lJFx1B", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703612546096, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704056170126, "question": "Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c584a663bd42", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-c584a663bd42", "pool": {"NO": 6.849095960946031, "YES": 1440.8924204861514}, "probability": 0.003540977891521961, "p": 0.42778261200551493, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3716.5340553664882, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704056203833, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704056204362, "lastBetTime": 1704056168246, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Eagles win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cardinals win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2Fc1279a5afbd3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["arizona-cardinals", "philadelphia-eagles", "football", "sports-default", "nfl"], "textDescription": "Yes - Eagles win\n\nNo - Cardinals win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "eEOVaTGlxUkUvkLnPzf6", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1686338279035, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1689904272332, "question": "Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election (Boris Johnson's seat) - will the Conservative party candidate win the seat?", "slug": "uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti", "pool": {"NO": 1535.4543648547892, "YES": 0.23539783331307262}, "probability": 0.9995017319063069, "p": 0.2351985844524745, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2970.322612103063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689904272332, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690391235110, "lastBetTime": 1689904265783, "lastCommentTime": 1690391231810, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP meaning that there will be a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip on 20th July:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-election", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "eEOVaTGlxUkUvkLnPzf6", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "vrIgRLDnoRk67AIxsVVc", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-e0fd34520cae"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "t8Ppp42CtjXCBHQUQ7Rj", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-0848532ff70c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "UIiqGwOrPek3U3zxEwQG", "label": "/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-8f5193426300"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of three by-elections taking place on the same day. How may of them will the Tories hold on to?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bwK36aKJ9JW8OBiKbFby", "label": "/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-how-many-seat"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no Conservative Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics"], "textDescription": "Boris Johnson has resigned as an MP meaning that there will be a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip on 20th July:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Uxbridge_and_South_Ruislip_by-election\n\nWill the Conservative Party candidate win the seat?\n\n@/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti \n\n@/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-e0fd34520cae \n\n@/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-0848532ff70c \n\n@/SimonGrayson/uxbridge-and-south-ruislip-byelecti-8f5193426300 \n\nThis is one of three by-elections taking place on the same day. How may of them will the Tories hold on to?\n\n@/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-how-many-seat \n\nIf there is no Conservative Party candidate standing in this by-election, this market resolves to NO.\n\nIf there is no by-election between now and the next General Election, this market will resolve to N/A"}, {"id": "NMnJrgvm16c3maf494Ve", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699734349478, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699830000000, "question": "Will BNB close higher on November 12 than it closed on November 11?", "slug": "will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-1-185ab631ee88", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-1-185ab631ee88", "pool": {"NO": 84.36042350165059, "YES": 638.0854483235192}, "probability": 0.06000000000000007, "p": 0.3255983069314425, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 594.117196256305, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699835167368, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699835161503, "lastBetTime": 1699828571491, "lastCommentTime": 1699835160821, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $251.6566", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $251.6566\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "GbZGIXZHkd01daNmCSBv", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1675283617739, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1679518750137, "question": "Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 50 bps in the March 2023 meeting?", "slug": "will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-9a9982dba5ce", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-9a9982dba5ce", "pool": {"NO": 337.1133913130564, "YES": 16071.050766827171}, "probability": 0.005302174516806365, "p": 0.20262526238884024, "totalLiquidity": 970, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 31531.456911479025, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679518750137, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679515148538, "lastBetTime": 1679515148407, "lastCommentTime": 1679508297119, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-b7103e6f1fbf", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FYQwULdN67d.png?alt=media&token=4e51adc7-163d-47a8-abd5-a241360e3226", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "interest-rates", "federal-reserve"], "textDescription": "How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, March 21-22 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO\n\nRelated\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-b7103e6f1fbf)"}, {"id": "FAqdlM9oWlrTIF2tcVty", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1690134757279, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1693753549356, "question": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2023 Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix (Monza)?", "slug": "will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-6d8a55e41ed7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-max-verstappen-win-the-2023-fo-6d8a55e41ed7", "pool": {"NO": 33628.786718258525, "YES": 573.6405411775377}, "probability": 0.9968098528800372, "p": 0.8420230477846062, "totalLiquidity": 1170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 43599.373833434845, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693753549356, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 62, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693753543658, "lastBetTime": 1693753543533, "lastCommentTime": 1693752891178, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The race will take place on September 3, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "The race will take place on September 3, 2023."}, {"id": "GN6W0Hv2PZUKkz2Wwvud", "creatorId": "dQj5tDy5ZkYwHCExKcD3YZqSFYz1", "creatorUsername": "Xmas", "creatorName": "Xmas", "createdTime": 1709332579103, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FXmas%2FDNciS8r2ln.jpeg?alt=media&token=b700e891-6d11-4557-9d0e-8ab7afbb51cd", "closeTime": 1709371297079, "question": "Will Destiny start going through logs and ban chatters after the podcast ends?", "slug": "will-destiny-start-going-through-lo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Xmas/will-destiny-start-going-through-lo", "pool": {"NO": 166.2665086176535, "YES": 413.08444844178985}, "probability": 0.18699621877776273, "p": 0.36364295796323204, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 566.3092738964353, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709371297079, "resolutionProbability": 0.19, "resolverId": "dQj5tDy5ZkYwHCExKcD3YZqSFYz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709371297576, "lastBetTime": 1709359722298, "lastCommentTime": 1709346684918, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the podcast ends, will Destiny go through dgg and start banning chatters for poor criticism or shit talking? ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Xmas%2Fa8e80b008a87.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "After the podcast ends, will Destiny go through dgg and start banning chatters for poor criticism or shit talking? "}, {"id": "3sSF9czIhKijN88PveEx", "creatorId": "5GlfSQD0jCZ3iuGjuSUJiZjwBCw1", "creatorUsername": "AndyMac", "creatorName": "Andy Mac", "createdTime": 1687456070472, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAndyMac%2Frk5ZZyRI7S.png?alt=media&token=ead07acb-10f8-4710-b093-a5863ccc6ff9", "closeTime": 1711954740000, "question": "Will Airbnb (if only quietly) reinstate Product Managers as a distinct role by Q2 2024?", "slug": "will-airbnb-if-only-quietly-reinsta", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AndyMac/will-airbnb-if-only-quietly-reinsta", "pool": {"NO": 258.0420411337572, "YES": 236.45948788910027}, "probability": 0.7225518614018989, "p": 0.7047060663182592, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1103.3099831462414, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712441257738, "resolutionProbability": 0.72, "resolverId": "5GlfSQD0jCZ3iuGjuSUJiZjwBCw1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711954740000, "lastBetTime": 1711951688643, "lastCommentTime": 1687461559430, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per tweets like this describing AirBnB co-founder Brian Chesky's keynote at Figma's FigJam conference:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/kvngao/status/1671658234401398784", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/kvngao/status/1671658234401398784", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The posture is that AirBnB has either made the Product Manager role redundant and moved PMs either into design roles (or Eng managers) or terminated them from the company.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will AirBnB reinstate the Product Manager role as a distinct role similar to other tech companies by Q2 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": AirBnB has active Product Manager employees by Q2 2024, or there is a confirmation before Q2 2024 of \"nuances\" to this decree that indicate the PM role was never formally made completely redundant.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default"], "textDescription": "Per tweets like this describing AirBnB co-founder Brian Chesky's keynote at Figma's FigJam conference:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/kvngao/status/1671658234401398784\n\nThe posture is that AirBnB has either made the Product Manager role redundant and moved PMs either into design roles (or Eng managers) or terminated them from the company.\n\nWill AirBnB reinstate the Product Manager role as a distinct role similar to other tech companies by Q2 2024?\n\nResolution: AirBnB has active Product Manager employees by Q2 2024, or there is a confirmation before Q2 2024 of \"nuances\" to this decree that indicate the PM role was never formally made completely redundant.\n\n"}, {"id": "YwqMqMSNkceSUQKlHERL", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1702517146063, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706792305596, "question": "Will FED cut rates at their January 2024 meeting?", "slug": "will-fed-cut-rates-at-their-january", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-fed-cut-rates-at-their-january", "pool": {"NO": 170.7712547420411, "YES": 8193.5386480954}, "probability": 0.0034283712168861284, "p": 0.1416734877660404, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10759.49268553831, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706792305596, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206875234, "lastBetTime": 1706737042557, "lastCommentTime": 1703369471788, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (over the level it was prior to the meeting)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", on any of its meetings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "calendar of meetings", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQNfWTYVb-C.png?alt=media&token=d3d95fb4-382b-4368-af53-f1499fedbc5d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udcc5 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HERE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?q=Will+FED+cut+rates+at+their&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL&topic=interest-rates", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2Fd259a846150c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["inflation", "federal-reserve", "interest-rates"], "textDescription": "FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"YES\" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.\n\ncalendar of meetings\n\n[image]\ud83d\udcc5 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE\n\n\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"}, {"id": "vyRdMbvk7tNgrqj5Agsc", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1682267731525, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682521640834, "question": "Socialists vs Fascists (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of \u1e4010k per)", "slug": "socialists-vs-fascists-3-day-market-f87008225f3e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/socialists-vs-fascists-3-day-market-f87008225f3e", "pool": {"NO": 10404.124037797492, "YES": 2.1365057005641575}, "probability": 0.999817443112583, "p": 0.5293363279865015, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10333, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682521640834, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206707448, "lastBetTime": 1682521635411, "lastCommentTime": 1682521622168, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Socialists", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = Fascists ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "resolve the market against them", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes on 4/26/23 8 A.M. PST", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "fun", "whale-watching", "gambling"], "textDescription": "Yes = Socialists\n\nNo = Fascists \n\nI will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.\n\nRules\n\nThe largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:\n\nPrevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.\n\nPrevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.\n\nMake the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.\n\nGive all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.\n\nIf someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.\n\nAfter the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.\n\nMarket closes on 4/26/23 8 A.M. PST"}, {"id": "CQvJQnf6l2fUJwKCV2d4", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1684746080406, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1684908000000, "question": "Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 24th May be below 8%?", "slug": "will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-19b503075d31", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-19b503075d31", "pool": {"NO": 64.38279438036507, "YES": 138.46153744827248}, "probability": 0.24136554317143125, "p": 0.40625682208248, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 71.53846255172755, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684908867027, "resolutionProbability": 0.24, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684908864825, "lastBetTime": 1684880940906, "lastCommentTime": 1684908861869, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "January 2023 - 10.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "March 2023 - 10.4%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "April 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 2023 - TBC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 8.0%)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhxFPuSkRBS.png?alt=media&token=ed94b93d-5b9e-4807-be2d-08f22d06ac38", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 BST on Wednesday.\n\nThis includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.\n\nHere are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):\n\nJanuary 2023 - 10.5%\n\nFebruary 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMarch 2023 - 10.4%\n\nApril 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMay 2023 - TBC\n\n(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 8.0%)"}, {"id": "3FMoF1wq9wgyYc2x1LUy", "creatorId": "mUKdvHMSynXo6KibN1jy49qIERk2", "creatorUsername": "Joghn", "creatorName": "Joghn", "createdTime": 1692850307789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtf2ohTrQQ1kfJeXBbBREs1VSiG3k3puNHLcepvshHSTYQo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will there be a repeat of the Wagner Group's rebellion in Russia by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-repeat-of-the-wagne", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joghn/will-there-be-a-repeat-of-the-wagne", "pool": {"NO": 752.5321695604196, "YES": 11178.806320308851}, "probability": 0.013040387062265697, "p": 0.16407069350607173, "totalLiquidity": 1215, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 36747.035324184886, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704154072983, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "uniqueBettorCount": 65, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704154073253, "lastBetTime": 1703957786679, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if there is a second, coordinated attempt by Wagner forces to go to Moscow, similarly to what they did in June, by December 31, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["wars", "yevgeney-prigozhin", "russia", "plane-crash", "ukrainerussia-war", "wagner-group", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if there is a second, coordinated attempt by Wagner forces to go to Moscow, similarly to what they did in June, by December 31, 2023.\n\nResolves No if not.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion"}, {"id": "KDxPHLIOIyZviLraEcw9", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1682191120738, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1696798429224, "question": "Will Fiji make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-fiji-make-it-to-the-knockout-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-fiji-make-it-to-the-knockout-s", "pool": {"NO": 5772.000368934371, "YES": 25.05753758746414}, "probability": 0.9961825260307862, "p": 0.5311451890851496, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8182.489526144609, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696798429224, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696798404538, "lastBetTime": 1696798404213, "lastCommentTime": 1696798398302, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FYp-nUQCfhP.png?alt=media&token=069d335b-45f9-4f2e-8f13-ef1524b0db83", "groupSlugs": ["rugby", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "8GPkA4lyeqyvBfphAPum", "creatorId": "FfLzliE1lMVKx3DQeEo84jJieRt1", "creatorUsername": "DannyOBrien", "creatorName": "Danny O'Brien\ud83e\udd16", "createdTime": 1693993905966, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Giey4724bWiZCcfL-l3K94KluaBKfVSKoKYQJawmkibUV4=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704096631469, "question": "Will a bill to rename India to Bharat be introduced in 2023?", "slug": "will-a-bill-to-rename-india-to-bhar", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DannyOBrien/will-a-bill-to-rename-india-to-bhar", "pool": {"NO": 216.82396571421555, "YES": 11810.617083436795}, "probability": 0.014106243146802325, "p": 0.4380049650911535, "totalLiquidity": 1320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16392.305310752792, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704096631469, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "FfLzliE1lMVKx3DQeEo84jJieRt1", "uniqueBettorCount": 72, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704096632464, "lastBetTime": 1704091129312, "lastCommentTime": 1694350286559, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Speculation is swirling that a bill to formally rename the country could be submitted at a special parliamentary session the government has scheduled for Sept. 18 to 22\" -- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nikkei https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/India-or-Bharat-G20-dinner-invitation-triggers-name-change-row", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/India-or-Bharat-G20-dinner-invitation-triggers-name-change-row", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that any bill proposing changes that would switch any official reference to India to Bharat would count. (And the bill does not need to pass.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ccb2a152-ab2c-4ce2-9c7b-1556e7a7c44f", "url": " https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/India-or-Bharat-G20-dinner-invitation-triggers-name-change-row", "image": "https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%253A%252F%252Fcms-image-bucket-production-ap-northeast-1-a7d2.s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%252Fimages%252F9%252F9%252F8%252F9%252F46479899-1-eng-GB%252FAP23248403418775.jpg?width=1260&height=630&fit=cover&gravity=faces&source=nar-cms", "title": "India or Bharat? G20 dinner invitation triggers name change row", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "NEW DELHI -- A Group of 20 dinner invitation referring to India as \"Bharat\" has sparked a row in New Delhi, with opposition parties accusing Prime Min", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["india", "politics-default", "g20", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "\"Speculation is swirling that a bill to formally rename the country could be submitted at a special parliamentary session the government has scheduled for Sept. 18 to 22\" -- Nikkei https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/India-or-Bharat-G20-dinner-invitation-triggers-name-change-row\n\nNote that any bill proposing changes that would switch any official reference to India to Bharat would count. (And the bill does not need to pass.)\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "VKagtZzOdQdMTogvTQzk", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700265055424, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700496000000, "question": "Will DAX Performance Index close higher november 20th than the close of november 17th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-0750f2d28806", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-0750f2d28806", "pool": {"NO": 117.72353239670272, "YES": 205.75126617337705}, "probability": 0.18655807003010075, "p": 0.28614056047033065, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 431.25120640731507, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700500646141, "resolutionProbability": 0.19, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700500642527, "lastBetTime": 1700495858424, "lastCommentTime": 1700500641811, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DAX closes 6 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FviTmxwsUYu.png?alt=media&token=2bf3036e-5313-481a-885f-e3737220ac2a", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stock-marketdaily", "sccsq4", "finance", "stocks"], "textDescription": "DAX closes 6 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "l19sA4leq8pKIfeE1xLA", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1705703288143, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1706031329554, "question": "Will the Dutch request to tax their king?", "slug": "will-the-dutch-request-to-tax-their", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-the-dutch-request-to-tax-their", "pool": {"NO": 871.7186363181162, "YES": 136.46324913196182}, "probability": 0.924521025011101, "p": 0.6572380922495589, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 654.6141819981473, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706031329554, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706033126737, "lastBetTime": 1706023455936, "lastCommentTime": 1706033124989, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dutch lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on a first step towards requiring King Willem-Alexander and his family to pay income tax, a plan that would require an amendment to the constitution. [...]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The initial motion, expected to be put to the vote on Tuesday, requires a simple majority to pass. It asks the government to propose a constitutional change, which would then ultimately need backing from two-thirds of both houses of parliament. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-parliament-considers-first-step-towards-asking-king-pay-income-tax-2024-01-19/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the vote on Tuesday passes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it fails.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " about the constitutional change but only about the request to the government.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date might change if the vote is shifted.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/marktwse%2Fe9415124d1ce.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["tax", "royalty", "the-netherlands"], "textDescription": "Dutch lawmakers will vote on Tuesday on a first step towards requiring King Willem-Alexander and his family to pay income tax, a plan that would require an amendment to the constitution. [...]\n\nThe initial motion, expected to be put to the vote on Tuesday, requires a simple majority to pass. It asks the government to propose a constitutional change, which would then ultimately need backing from two-thirds of both houses of parliament. (source)\n\nResolves YES if the vote on Tuesday passes.\n\nResolves NO if it fails.\n\nThis is not about the constitutional change but only about the request to the government.\n\nClose date might change if the vote is shifted."}, {"id": "fCF5Yb1xil2rp9E1Pc7D", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1653154159143, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1653154850699, "question": "Can an author profit despite the Matt P's proposed scheme?", "slug": "can-an-author-profit-despite-the-ma", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/can-an-author-profit-despite-the-ma", "pool": {"NO": 898.7735009811261, "YES": 435.3767757756508}, "probability": 0.9460607623340425, "p": 0.8946956959411513, "totalLiquidity": 507.3589941132431, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 400, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1653154850699, "resolutionProbability": 0.5, "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1653173115890, "lastBetTime": 1653154314007, "lastCommentTime": 1653173112307, "description": "See https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu\n\nI will attempt to demonstrate this by example (and pay some fees for it, oh well)", "textDescription": "See https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-gurkenglas-convince-me-that-mu\n\nI will attempt to demonstrate this by example (and pay some fees for it, oh well)"}, {"id": "ve6YSXCEtt849Jk64e7u", "creatorId": "U7riHiuE0hdW3TLw3PFcxJ31Xq03", "creatorUsername": "qrdlkaggle", "creatorName": "qrdl kaggle", "createdTime": 1702456277875, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ3B8QiXeURV-Ye2VkAYV2aadIA32fT4empqE_YBXbB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1702543475256, "question": "GPT4-Resolving:   Was Tesla the most active stock on NASDAQ by Dollar Volume during regular trading hours?", "slug": "gpt4resolving-was-tesla-the-most-ac-5790e0b497ed", "url": "https://manifold.markets/qrdlkaggle/gpt4resolving-was-tesla-the-most-ac-5790e0b497ed", "pool": {"NO": 55.97014925373134, "YES": 44.666666666666686}, "probability": 0.5561597785248171, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702543475256, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "resolverId": "U7riHiuE0hdW3TLw3PFcxJ31Xq03", "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702543574783, "lastBetTime": 1702456312516, "lastCommentTime": 1702543573058, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved by GPT4 on a daily basis.  ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Right now it's an experiment, and if it goes well,I'll start automating it and adding more markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Every day after the bell I'll ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " grab the text from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "via beautifulsoup call get_text and append \"What was the Most Active Stocks by Dollar Volume?\" and call gpt-4-1106-preview with it", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve this market based on the answer using the api at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The goal here is make these markets fully automated.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Learnings so far ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT4 isn't so great at pulling data out of a table, prompt matters.  \"What was the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today?\" failed, I had to use \"What was the most active by Dollar Volume stock?\", with the former constantly saying \"he text does not provide information for the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution source is a big hurdle - needs to be consistently retrievable and accurate", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "gpt-4-1106-preview may provide better results", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Put some scratch code here - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/qrdlkaggle%2F0ed4eb6f4327.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gpt4resolution"], "textDescription": "This market will be resolved by GPT4 on a daily basis.  \n\nRight now it's an experiment, and if it goes well,I'll start automating it and adding more markets.\n\nEvery day after the bell I'll \n\n grab the text from https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/most-active-stocks/  \n\nvia beautifulsoup call get_text and append \"What was the Most Active Stocks by Dollar Volume?\" and call gpt-4-1106-preview with it\n\nResolve this market based on the answer using the api at https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0markets\n\nThe goal here is make these markets fully automated.\n\n\nLearnings so far \n\nGPT4 isn't so great at pulling data out of a table, prompt matters.  \"What was the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today?\" failed, I had to use \"What was the most active by Dollar Volume stock?\", with the former constantly saying \"he text does not provide information for the most active stock on the NASDAQ by Dollar Volume for today.\"\n\nResolution source is a big hurdle - needs to be consistently retrievable and accurate\n\ngpt-4-1106-preview may provide better results\n\nPut some scratch code here - https://github.com/qrdlgit/manifold/blob/main/scratch\n\n\n\n"}, {"id": "0gWknXabPUpOIuHoFwhy", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1701607872537, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will President Biden declare ONE MORE National Emergency by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-president-biden-declare-one-mo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-president-biden-declare-one-mo", "pool": {"NO": 146.85832962302658, "YES": 434.5296720981696}, "probability": 0.047474803343091065, "p": 0.12851852052121526, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 446, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704206558175, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710224396328, "lastBetTime": 1703078949964, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, after December 3 and before December 31 2023, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. \u00a7 1601\u20131651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency powers, available to the President upon the declaration of an emergency (so called \"National Emergency\"). Congress also can terminate an emergency declaration with a joint resolution enacted into law.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note, for this market to resolve to \"Yes\" the national emergency declaration must be official, issued under authority of the National Emergencies Act by the Executive Office of the President. Any public announcement by President Biden without an official declaration will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "A continuation of any existing National Emergencies will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " An executive emergency order which is not subject to the provisions of the National Emergencies Act will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Register of official documents published by the Executive Office of the President (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), however other official government sources may be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK/6589c0330ea4.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=YbsMaUqX2wUS2gDztHT%2Boy6MYm4qpg%2B76d7nVz7FXdn%2FWAyRX3b8iwdhUhGcTvNdF1Rst72YqTSOU45cARcFb%2FmOltM%2BVlor6OsC2alaZuiboCGV5s5ZknKBS%2FxLVRkGXlXiyc49jJK41XA128L8ZWpgEMdt7%2Fwibto7wKeAECr1efkPDfCtWyyDhBj6h%2FVAFi3BxF%2BMwKXz1hJCHDrcrslmp2gLazt%2BJA4zI85WN5eabghEqPz1PryqJ05rJ%2FngCFFuncOBRLWmK8oqIQLb5ldo1KgymX4HkA9K5Wa3ffAUTd4MlpZpmL1ZWrjf2FTad2D7smM6MbEx1nqPTzUdFQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "united-states"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, after December 3 and before December 31 2023, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency. \n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nUnder The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. \u00a7 1601\u20131651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency powers, available to the President upon the declaration of an emergency (so called \"National Emergency\"). Congress also can terminate an emergency declaration with a joint resolution enacted into law.\n\nPlease note, for this market to resolve to \"Yes\" the national emergency declaration must be official, issued under authority of the National Emergencies Act by the Executive Office of the President. Any public announcement by President Biden without an official declaration will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". A continuation of any existing National Emergencies will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\". An executive emergency order which is not subject to the provisions of the National Emergencies Act will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Register of official documents published by the Executive Office of the President (https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president), however other official government sources may be used."}, {"id": "ZA8CsYSTuXIiQs2FFne1", "creatorId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "creatorUsername": "MikeChenSF", "creatorName": "Mike Chen", "createdTime": 1663782643573, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1663893150867, "question": "Will California AB 2097 pass in 2022? (The bill removes parking requirements on new buildings close to transit.)", "slug": "will-california-ab-2097-pass-in-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-california-ab-2097-pass-in-202", "pool": {"NO": 475.6833185617336, "YES": 21.022389496936373}, "probability": 0.9576763682078457, "p": 0.49999999999999944, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 773.1630777004916, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1663893150867, "resolutionProbability": 0.6660025547552851, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1663949722473, "lastBetTime": 1663893138629, "lastCommentTime": 1663949720099, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to YES if California bill AB 2097 passes by the deadline of September 30, 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The bill is on the Governor's desk. Deadline to pass is September 30.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recent articles:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://slate.com/business/2022/09/california-parking-housing-ab2097-newsom.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://slate.com/business/2022/09/california-parking-housing-ab2097-newsom.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article266030731.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article266030731.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 21, 10:50am: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 21, 9:16pm: Added clarification on what the bill does to question title. This market was a copy of a market that had been previously closed, but is now also open. I expect that both markets will resolve the same way.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/will-california-ab-2097-residential", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["yimby", "california", "housing-markets"], "textDescription": "This question resolves to YES if California bill AB 2097 passes by the deadline of September 30, 2022.\n\nThe bill is on the Governor's desk. Deadline to pass is September 30.\n\nRecent articles:\n\nhttps://slate.com/business/2022/09/california-parking-housing-ab2097-newsom.html\n\nhttps://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article266030731.html\n\nSep 21, 10:50am: \n\nSep 21, 9:16pm: Added clarification on what the bill does to question title. This market was a copy of a market that had been previously closed, but is now also open. I expect that both markets will resolve the same way.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tetraspace/will-california-ab-2097-residential)"}, {"id": "Hcpt9TI7z4W4ERTThZIz", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708126897263, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708718400000, "question": "Will Netflix close higher than 583.95 on February 23?", "slug": "will-netflix-close-higher-than-5839", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-netflix-close-higher-than-5839", "pool": {"NO": 587.8655921139298, "YES": 581.0481062928566}, "probability": 0.6198741642877316, "p": 0.6171217715109759, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1695.8930795493834, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708726222879, "resolutionProbability": 0.62, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708727015262, "lastBetTime": 1708716345675, "lastCommentTime": 1708727014665, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Netflix Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=NFLX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NFLX closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than 583.95", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F8cc3509e4a48.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["fun", "entertainment", "keen-stocks", "technology-default", "gaming", "stocks-league-beta", "stocks", "economics-default", "finance", "netflix"], "textDescription": "Netflix Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price\n\nNFLX closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than 583.95\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "bJuSakac8miXxJUrinYY", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1693416706853, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1693488600000, "question": "Will G2T flight 1822 from Barcelona to Hamburg on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-g2t-flight-1822-from-barcelona", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-g2t-flight-1822-from-barcelona", "pool": {"NO": 504.02065960663066, "YES": 104.38822561985361}, "probability": 0.9399999999999996, "p": 0.7644142597263198, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1037.355445992576, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693513142634, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693487779109, "lastBetTime": 1693487777939, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/4eh8sfk8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/4eh8sfk8", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4eh8sfk8"}, {"id": "f7qMDgz2RUYEjzB6Q9NQ", "creatorId": "4oAycBhZOySa25BNSUHh6RZ8ETt2", "creatorUsername": "Marq", "creatorName": "Ion Marqvardsen", "createdTime": 1704409462389, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FIonMarqvardsen%2Fw4a0GY3U7x.jpeg?alt=media&token=c44aff37-65d0-4428-a1df-6f36395f4296", "closeTime": 1705100340000, "question": "Is Israel presenting more credible evidence than USA did in the buildup to the Iraq war?", "slug": "who-showed-the-most-convincing-evid", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Marq/who-showed-the-most-convincing-evid", "pool": {"NO": 421.53585527203114, "YES": 121.81195159016634}, "probability": 0.8112561710401981, "p": 0.5539805005943578, "totalLiquidity": 213.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 280.84708139914113, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705101828578, "resolutionProbability": 0.81, "resolverId": "4oAycBhZOySa25BNSUHh6RZ8ETt2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705101828986, "lastBetTime": 1705098700700, "lastCommentTime": 1704632296229, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yesterday Israel released what it described as \u201cnew evidence\u201d for the Hamas command center under hospital.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This evidence has now been reported in Wall Street Journal, the economist and in CNN. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It\u2019s a d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu to the buildup to the Iraq war, 2003, when the Bush administration claimed Sadam Hussein had multiple facilities for production of weapons of mass destruction. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By now we know that the WMD story was false. But at the time it was pretty convincing. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Is Israel more convincing than USA was back then?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will let the Manifold people decide. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Marq%2F4fd6189709e0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "selfresolving", "unsubsidized", "nonpredictive"], "textDescription": "Yesterday Israel released what it described as \u201cnew evidence\u201d for the Hamas command center under hospital.\n\nThis evidence has now been reported in Wall Street Journal, the economist and in CNN. \n\nIt\u2019s a d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu to the buildup to the Iraq war, 2003, when the Bush administration claimed Sadam Hussein had multiple facilities for production of weapons of mass destruction. \n\nBy now we know that the WMD story was false. But at the time it was pretty convincing. \n\nIs Israel more convincing than USA was back then?\n\nI will let the Manifold people decide. "}, {"id": "CNqjMCEXlMxFzYFxUGSv", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679099228453, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679579840778, "question": "Will Vaush's short \"we could never repay the debt to black people who were enslaved\" reach 15k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-short-we-could-never-re", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-we-could-never-re", "pool": {"NO": 11646.799947380749, "YES": 13.732658670134697}, "probability": 0.9995769862947449, "p": 0.7358818389130621, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12140, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1679579840778, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218530191, "lastBetTime": 1679579837848, "lastCommentTime": 1679578128627, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/shorts/Pp1L1cVsNvw?feature=share", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/shorts/Pp1L1cVsNvw?feature=share", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FPdoPQX4o0C.png?alt=media&token=89906000-f474-47f8-bc5c-709508081e29", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtube.com/shorts/Pp1L1cVsNvw?feature=share\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "vE2PR90RIjohKWVlUb8J", "creatorId": "WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1", "creatorUsername": "SpaceboyLuke", "creatorName": "Luke", "createdTime": 1698518458834, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSpaceboyLuke%2FIDTrnODYhB.jpeg?alt=media&token=4975a447-5ce3-4fcb-aec5-24f3180c7564", "closeTime": 1717105377567, "question": "Will Trump be convicted of a felony prior to the GOP Convention on July 18th, 2024?", "slug": "will-trump-be-convicted-of-a-felony", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SpaceboyLuke/will-trump-be-convicted-of-a-felony", "pool": {"NO": 11607.29872611978, "YES": 119.09291570411267}, "probability": 0.9905014222102769, "p": 0.5168895302704727, "totalLiquidity": 1135, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15428.796833668883, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717105377567, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "WZg5sfUIpsQF7plUgMtejLX8YJj1", "uniqueBettorCount": 59, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717105377567, "lastBetTime": 1717104078517, "lastCommentTime": 1713877884243, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Trump is not convicted prior to the convention then this poll will resolve NO. If Trump is convicted of only a misdemeanor and no felonies the this poll will resolve NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries", "trump-indictments"], "textDescription": "If Trump is not convicted prior to the convention then this poll will resolve NO. If Trump is convicted of only a misdemeanor and no felonies the this poll will resolve NO. "}, {"id": "w6QLci8EjJfq8TtGc8NB", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1704392607070, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1704814976857, "question": "Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale before the end of January, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-apple-vision-pro-go-on-sal", "pool": {"NO": 775.6498503465853, "YES": 19709.1609892301}, "probability": 0.007312683962456366, "p": 0.15766998676183383, "totalLiquidity": 1390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 79420.28598265765, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704814976857, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 140, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705704265513, "lastBetTime": 1704811026571, "lastCommentTime": 1705704263903, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pacific Time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of creation of market, it was assumed that the orders will be in-person only. If that's the case, no problems. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If that turnss out not to be the case, and that users can purchase the product online as well, then it would count if orders are possible via the apple website. Note that these must not be \"pre-orders\" but actual orders of the product for it to count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2Fef41b35177c9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "apple-vision-pro", "apple"], "textDescription": "Pacific Time.\n\nGoes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.\n\nAt the time of creation of market, it was assumed that the orders will be in-person only. If that's the case, no problems. \n\nIf that turnss out not to be the case, and that users can purchase the product online as well, then it would count if orders are possible via the apple website. Note that these must not be \"pre-orders\" but actual orders of the product for it to count."}, {"id": "cW9R7hkCkaUxGVMqr0o6", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1696342105000, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1696352220000, "question": "Will UA flight 1896 from Seattle to San Francisco on 2023-10-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-ua-flight-1896-from-seattle-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ua-flight-1896-from-seattle-to", "pool": {"NO": 154.21563586615713, "YES": 136.68858272902267}, "probability": 0.8399999999999995, "p": 0.8231128627193778, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 371.0274061608963, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696388990629, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696351993538, "lastBetTime": 1696351993257, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/ph6725ua", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/ph6725ua", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/ph6725ua"}, {"id": "vcxbbTwxvLfaB3kD40tJ", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1695069339461, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1695150000000, "question": "Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on September 19th than it closed on September 18th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-b1d4d81033e4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-b1d4d81033e4", "pool": {"NO": 148.0661086955347, "YES": 239.88310089051774}, "probability": 0.19656139594330665, "p": 0.2838521632389613, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 370.29757897141224, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695162191884, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695162190130, "lastBetTime": 1695149368180, "lastCommentTime": 1695162189598, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u0336p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1  3pm ET (7pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrB22nWxV82.png?alt=media&token=6db33e98-ce94-4ec0-9747-352604efc887", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_EZu9TukOR.png?alt=media&token=78bbcdc3-aa54-4fed-aba0-085c940aea09", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "stocks", "economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)\n\nPredictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u0336p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 1  3pm ET (7pm UTC)\n\n1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nFor The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow \u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2"}, {"id": "DfLhL1qJr1odXWTqvpd0", "creatorId": "KV6q96Fl8JbXbfHXFeuA4q1Hss22", "creatorUsername": "Dark", "creatorName": "Dark", "createdTime": 1701353543942, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDark%2Fdaf185c8-e682-4668-ad40-fe59134503c8.jpg?alt=media&token=71e89b1d-b98a-4b67-951f-ed51efef297e", "closeTime": 1701989940000, "question": "Will GPT-4  be able to identify the winner of the Alignment Awards in 1/10 unsorted tournament runs?", "slug": "will-gpt4-be-able-to-identify-the-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Dark/will-gpt4-be-able-to-identify-the-w", "pool": {"NO": 147.86104688643522, "YES": 151.87571776029338}, "probability": 0.47987653398524005, "p": 0.4865662867230224, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 54.02565103718086, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702027872562, "resolutionProbability": 0.48, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701817799438, "lastBetTime": 1701817799207, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Ran out of space in the title, so read for more details]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to YES if the winner of the tournament is the same as the winner of the contest on at least 1 run out of 10.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to NA if I fail to execute the experiment within a week. Currently the code seems to run correctly on 5 random entrants, so I don't expect issues.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The experiment is to describe the conditions and criteria of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Goal Misgeneralization", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " contest of the Alignment Awards to GPT-4, and then ask it which of two 500-word summaries is more likely to have won the competition. Winning entries go to the next round, till there is only 1 winner left. If there are an uneven number of entries in a round, then the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "last", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " entry automatically graduates to the next round and will then become the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "first", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " entry of that round. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The original competition was judged on more than the 500-word summary, so it is entirely possible that this is insufficient information to identify the winner (even for the original judges). The 500 word summaries were submitted and written by the original entrants.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each time the tournament is run, the entrants are randomized, so different pairs compete against each other in the first round. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are 52 entrants. Duplicates have been removed but irrelevant submissions have not.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "PS: I don't think I can share the prompt yet, and I do realize that's a big factor in betting. Vaguely, the prompt contains all major details of the competition (including names of the judges and criteria for scoring) and includes encouragement to reason step by step. Per 'match', GPT-4 is run once to reason out the winner between 2 entrants, and then run again to extract the winner label from the reasoning text (to avoid manual extraction).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["science-default"], "textDescription": "[Ran out of space in the title, so read for more details]\n\nThe market will resolve to YES if the winner of the tournament is the same as the winner of the contest on at least 1 run out of 10.\n\nThe market will resolve to NA if I fail to execute the experiment within a week. Currently the code seems to run correctly on 5 random entrants, so I don't expect issues.\n\nThe experiment is to describe the conditions and criteria of the Goal Misgeneralization contest of the Alignment Awards to GPT-4, and then ask it which of two 500-word summaries is more likely to have won the competition. Winning entries go to the next round, till there is only 1 winner left. If there are an uneven number of entries in a round, then the last entry automatically graduates to the next round and will then become the first entry of that round. \n\nThe original competition was judged on more than the 500-word summary, so it is entirely possible that this is insufficient information to identify the winner (even for the original judges). The 500 word summaries were submitted and written by the original entrants.\n\nEach time the tournament is run, the entrants are randomized, so different pairs compete against each other in the first round. \n\nThere are 52 entrants. Duplicates have been removed but irrelevant submissions have not.\n\nPS: I don't think I can share the prompt yet, and I do realize that's a big factor in betting. Vaguely, the prompt contains all major details of the competition (including names of the judges and criteria for scoring) and includes encouragement to reason step by step. Per 'match', GPT-4 is run once to reason out the winner between 2 entrants, and then run again to extract the winner label from the reasoning text (to avoid manual extraction)."}, {"id": "dTPD1NDlPbzWfhqCB4Lv", "creatorId": "AXCShICabXOEZrWoFSBPxmyU6jk2", "creatorUsername": "PeterBuyukliev", "creatorName": "Peter Buyukliev", "createdTime": 1694711855072, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPeterBuyukliev%2F2A-un1i-FL.png?alt=media&token=aaa52526-7cf0-4ae9-b529-f0ece6de2b4c", "closeTime": 1705225321985, "question": "Non-trivial number of North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia/Ukraine", "slug": "nontrivial-number-of-north-korean-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PeterBuyukliev/nontrivial-number-of-north-korean-s", "pool": {"NO": 73.43236163393232, "YES": 4156.56462648604}, "probability": 0.006651438716559915, "p": 0.2748468236384939, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6119.335033164528, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705225321985, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "AXCShICabXOEZrWoFSBPxmyU6jk2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705225322827, "lastBetTime": 1704793392984, "lastCommentTime": 1704220407614, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant news article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66783384", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "at least 1000 North Korean soldiers are deployed", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Being on border duty, or otherwise serving in non-combat positions in Russia still counts, as that relieves Russians who can fight on the front", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Military exercises do NOT count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the exact number is not known, I will use my best judgement", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Deadline - 4 months from now, January 15th 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ccc2117a-0813-4d0e-a012-975dbc43c5a2", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66783384", "image": "https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/7C71/production/_131075813_gettyimages-1661935067.jpg", "title": "Vladimir Putin says military cooperation with Kim Jong Un a possibility", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Vladimir Putin met Kim Jong Un in a highly scrutinised visit suspected to yield an arms deal.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["north-korea", "ukrainerussia-war", "geopolitics", "russia", "wars"], "textDescription": "Relevant news article:\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66783384\n\nCriteria:\n\nat least 1000 North Korean soldiers are deployed\n\nBeing on border duty, or otherwise serving in non-combat positions in Russia still counts, as that relieves Russians who can fight on the front\n\nMilitary exercises do NOT count\n\nIf the exact number is not known, I will use my best judgement\n\nDeadline - 4 months from now, January 15th 2024\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "16KCkzJBmErEeMiB7Kk5", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1666814815186, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1666897200000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.00 on October 27, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-55a8b8dcbc5b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-55a8b8dcbc5b", "pool": {"NO": 455.1586648083774, "YES": 101.29258571564725}, "probability": 0.7699999999999997, "p": 0.42694618660372236, "totalLiquidity": 280, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1513.5009487993573, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1666900843904, "resolutionProbability": 0.7699999999999999, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1666901015938, "lastBetTime": 1666894758060, "lastCommentTime": 1666901014711, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FaZiISMRoBj.png?alt=media&token=09b4a929-5198-4179-acde-09c817ba120b", "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nBetting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. \n\nExcellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "0BVQDC8NNJArxKmlasRl", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706390050489, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706473500000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-28 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-82f7d8dbf15d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-82f7d8dbf15d", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.16666666666666663, "p": 0.16666666666666663, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706533077499, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706533077717, "lastBetTime": 1706390058092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-28 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbb5bbdc229d5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-28 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "feGPh8QmDVaqPlR7DHx1", "creatorId": "4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72", "creatorUsername": "belikewater", "creatorName": "belikewater", "createdTime": 1680458125532, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbelikewater%2FoNfl0ALkQI.jpeg?alt=media&token=14feff17-9b3a-4a2a-a645-cea3bb70be0d", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will a robot that employs an AI that combines an LLM and a knowledge model be publicly available before January 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-a-robot-that-employs-an-ai-tha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/belikewater/will-a-robot-that-employs-an-ai-tha", "pool": {"NO": 242.99316686376827, "YES": 4791.879509758402}, "probability": 0.025844601824870913, "p": 0.3434799682976535, "totalLiquidity": 730, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7123.8230426718565, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704880790899, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704880791216, "lastBetTime": 1703466576121, "lastCommentTime": 1704880783453, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, GPT-4, and (the Bard interface to) LaMDA, have made the news in recent months. While the capabilities of LLMs are extraordinary, they will likely be even more extraordinary when combined with a knowledge model. We are seeing the first such combinations with plugins for GPT-4.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The robotics field has been making extraordinary advances as well, and LLMs have been demonstrated in combination with robots. Here are two examples:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUszJyS3d7A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUszJyS3d7A", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgT8tPChbqc&t=26s", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgT8tPChbqc&t=26s", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to \"yes\" if a robot is made publicly available that employs at least an LLM combined with a knowledge model. This question will resolve to \"yes\" if other capabilities are included as well. A robot will be considered to be \"publicly available\" if any members of the general public, without special connections to AI, are able to access this AI, openly, through a waitlist or otherwise. Access may be free or may cost money. A robot will be considered publicly available if members of the public can visit with, borrow, rent or buy such a robot. The question will resolve to \"yes\" if such a robot is physically available to the general public before January 1, 2024, and to \"no\" otherwise; for example, if members of the public are able to place an order for such a robot before January 1, 2024 but no such robot is physically available before January 1, 2024, then the question will resolve to \"no.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fgem3cHaEcU.png?alt=media&token=7da945b8-3683-40d9-9399-bb1c91363171", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "ai"], "textDescription": "Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, GPT-4, and (the Bard interface to) LaMDA, have made the news in recent months. While the capabilities of LLMs are extraordinary, they will likely be even more extraordinary when combined with a knowledge model. We are seeing the first such combinations with plugins for GPT-4.\n\nThe robotics field has been making extraordinary advances as well, and LLMs have been demonstrated in combination with robots. Here are two examples:\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUszJyS3d7A\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgT8tPChbqc&t=26s\n\nThis question will resolve to \"yes\" if a robot is made publicly available that employs at least an LLM combined with a knowledge model. This question will resolve to \"yes\" if other capabilities are included as well. A robot will be considered to be \"publicly available\" if any members of the general public, without special connections to AI, are able to access this AI, openly, through a waitlist or otherwise. Access may be free or may cost money. A robot will be considered publicly available if members of the public can visit with, borrow, rent or buy such a robot. The question will resolve to \"yes\" if such a robot is physically available to the general public before January 1, 2024, and to \"no\" otherwise; for example, if members of the public are able to place an order for such a robot before January 1, 2024 but no such robot is physically available before January 1, 2024, then the question will resolve to \"no.\""}, {"id": "QIkIo55GW1flzb9rc9Z5", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704920301228, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704948600000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-11 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-0dd058bb6bb6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-0dd058bb6bb6", "pool": {"NO": 96.23068654550885, "YES": 23.05869485064377}, "probability": 0.7900000000000003, "p": 0.47407827024397586, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 47.34710884573797, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705002516028, "resolutionProbability": 0.79, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705002516271, "lastBetTime": 1704948113033, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-11 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-11 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fc787bf9f1ac0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-11 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-11 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "PKi1gT5ZH5Rp0IRc9wsh", "creatorId": "HhZi7R3RRHWeS5tRvomftREwRWf2", "creatorUsername": "breck", "creatorName": "breck", "createdTime": 1698186292206, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbreckenedge%2Fsc9Fqxswe1.jpeg?alt=media&token=f4e777b2-6221-45b9-9e76-5df193c57a60", "closeTime": 1701496740000, "question": "Will FHA mortgage limits for one-unit properties increase for 2024?", "slug": "will-fha-mortgage-limits-increase-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/breck/will-fha-mortgage-limits-increase-f", "pool": {"NO": 61.666666666666686, "YES": 80}, "probability": 0.4098360655737708, "p": 0.4739336492890997, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701522173115, "resolutionProbability": 0.41, "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701522219341, "lastBetTime": 1698187755183, "lastCommentTime": 1701522217412, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The limit for 2023 was $1,089,300. Will the limit be raised for 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve per update at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/lender/origination/mortgage_limits", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/lender/origination/mortgage_limits", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["housing-markets"], "textDescription": "The limit for 2023 was $1,089,300. Will the limit be raised for 2024?\n\nWill resolve per update at https://www.hud.gov/program_offices/housing/sfh/lender/origination/mortgage_limits."}, {"id": "FzsST0EcnVFD3ZvnCGaW", "creatorId": "GIksEjXTgQURBbIHCqcJ0FjV0nT2", "creatorUsername": "Keeto", "creatorName": "Keeto", "createdTime": 1710843925809, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKSorQtAVyjcs_Daqc_uDA4_4kDubo5MZX1iivUKMRja2Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710957550126, "question": "Will House of Lords send back the Rwanda bill to the Commons a second time?", "slug": "will-house-of-lords-send-back-the-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Keeto/will-house-of-lords-send-back-the-r", "pool": {"NO": 242.8924355718342, "YES": 169.5704469000801}, "probability": 0.6562624617565108, "p": 0.5713428789305706, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 85, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710957550126, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "resolverId": "GIksEjXTgQURBbIHCqcJ0FjV0nT2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710957550126, "lastBetTime": 1710939283017, "lastCommentTime": 1710891888311, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Now that the Commons have voted to reject the House of Lords amendments to the Rwanda bill will the Lords vote again for new amendments and send it back to the Commons?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve NO if the bill passes House of Lords with no further amendments. Will resolve YES if the House of Lords add amendments and send the bill back to the House of Commons", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "-rwanda"], "textDescription": "Now that the Commons have voted to reject the House of Lords amendments to the Rwanda bill will the Lords vote again for new amendments and send it back to the Commons?\n\nWill resolve NO if the bill passes House of Lords with no further amendments. Will resolve YES if the House of Lords add amendments and send the bill back to the House of Commons"}, {"id": "ZvQ8a4twNMrvs5C1KBYE", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1704076472726, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1704139200000, "question": "($250M Subsidy) Will the Vegas Golden Knights beat Seattle Kraken on January 1? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "250m-subsidy-will-the-vegas-golden", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/250m-subsidy-will-the-vegas-golden", "pool": {"NO": 550.9030269305356, "YES": 401.69632068634775}, "probability": 0.5699999999999997, "p": 0.4914980033338879, "totalLiquidity": 480.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1380.233177576607, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704163903048, "resolutionProbability": 0.57, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704163903227, "lastBetTime": 1704136448134, "lastCommentTime": 1704163880890, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market - Live Action Sports ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts/50m-subsidy-will-new-york-beat-toro", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ". That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 2:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Seattle Kraken @2pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=knights+vs+kraken", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 2:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 2:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. Resolve No otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fw_rbT_N7Lr.png?alt=media&token=e857112e-fc57-4adf-8be4-74da2bcad408", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F598a6742b9ec.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "seattle-kraken", "vegas-golden-knights", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market - Live Action Sports here. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 2:00pm CST and sit back.\n\nVegas Golden Knights vs Seattle Kraken @2pm CST\n\nGame start at 2:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 2:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. Resolve No otherwise.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "mbUKd9Q0P07rdXi993F3", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701729097665, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1701817200000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 5 than it closed on December 4?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-5", "pool": {"NO": 101.44433888751192, "YES": 459.7078979936156}, "probability": 0.10581018270442877, "p": 0.34905621661072606, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 947.1338309984069, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701823518352, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701823515198, "lastBetTime": 1701816479454, "lastCommentTime": 1701823514382, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.6238", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/891120983b69.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=F1cKSGcvIPR3pDMYu%2Bv1fvpjW%2B7CpeYMq4Gbs5XwLsvuKNYCaISnqwTqp9Efy%2BbTeeDLwo5JQKAMG3yKder9Zm1cWh4BQK4A48UgXO%2Fcjm4uVFwvZ8mOOW7J04tTudWeE1shIvFBtmqb1JWFDnUBaV%2FiWD8Yp8FT9hwyciEfm8XVtS17kG%2B0qTaDTBzW%2FK2yfH1%2F5%2B%2B2%2F4qwXDcJk%2Fn9iv6qTNoYBr1w1pXwEyc73GQ95IwvnS70307QXmv1J9ztEcAiMS9JUerSnZ52dUQDSuDH6UHdvLt5W4RdV1L43iSgoXw1XGXELLgw2welu62xS7dqNer71fUuZsAumAuQfA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6238\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "yGuelVz5niCOVvGwAAJw", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702921605927, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703026800000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-e09132c2421b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-e09132c2421b", "pool": {"NO": 104.30923030308617, "YES": 516.606523699425}, "probability": 0.08831038974963613, "p": 0.32420359104803703, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 676.6875764810205, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703035204894, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703035201687, "lastBetTime": 1703026389925, "lastCommentTime": 1703035199918, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.6128", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F765220618af4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6128\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "Hmgu2QR2FUFrdBAwK3mk", "creatorId": "q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32", "creatorUsername": "NamesAreHard", "creatorName": "NamesAreHard", "createdTime": 1686514433473, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Y7b2Qj-CHzI8sNluWCbWRdota_29t5Bhkyf2F=s96-c", "closeTime": 1687035475760, "question": "Will Georgia beat Cyprus in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?", "slug": "will-georgia-beat-cyprus-in-the-uef", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NamesAreHard/will-georgia-beat-cyprus-in-the-uef", "pool": {"NO": 1241.9275468588003, "YES": 3.318415529603877}, "probability": 0.9975065507843515, "p": 0.5166586396669591, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1481.742639507314, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1687035475760, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687034340991, "lastBetTime": 1687034340867, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Georgia wins against Cyprus in their match on June 17, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Cyprus wins or the match ends in a draw.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fs3ovno0ec4.png?alt=media&token=37b63815-3fc2-430e-a6d6-3ed05ec47f5f", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "soccer", "football", "euros-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Georgia wins against Cyprus in their match on June 17, 2023.\n\nResolves NO if Cyprus wins or the match ends in a draw.\n\nhttps://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/"}, {"id": "d0tQxd6Js0lZgKO0kWA8", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700679144809, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700708397567, "question": "Was the Niagara Rainbow Bridge explosion a terror attack?", "slug": "was-the-niagra-rainbow-bridge-explo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/was-the-niagra-rainbow-bridge-explo", "pool": {"NO": 39.57158327930394, "YES": 1104.2972760214923}, "probability": 0.02458507578147838, "p": 0.41292898456293897, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2485.486642625107, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700708397567, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700708386495, "lastBetTime": 1700702302853, "lastCommentTime": 1700708386102, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is SUPER close to home for me.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if mainstream media deems this was a terror attack.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO for all other circumstances.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFiO0Pz1QWA.jpg?alt=media&token=97013d52-ebf7-4246-9d07-d67dd3dceb7e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["canada", "terrorism", "united-states"], "textDescription": "This is SUPER close to home for me.\n\nResolves YES if mainstream media deems this was a terror attack.\n\nResolves NO for all other circumstances.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "i77b0GT83TXnKWGZPJDS", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1699214326424, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1699414233441, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Ball State beat Northern Illinois?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-ball-state-beat-no", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-ball-state-beat-no", "pool": {"NO": 952.7596533938022, "YES": 9.291274394936597}, "probability": 0.9941283360001006, "p": 0.6227979800679636, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2086.1342157876265, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699414233441, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699413228815, "lastBetTime": 1699413228687, "lastCommentTime": 1699221449707, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-07 at 7 PM ET in DeKalb, IL. Line: Northern Illinois -10.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "midamerican-conference"], "textDescription": "2023-11-07 at 7 PM ET in DeKalb, IL. Line: Northern Illinois -10."}, {"id": "QBqVqT9rj2jM5xrgvZjY", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715376969928, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715607000000, "question": "Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher May 17 than May 10?", "slug": "will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-5dfb9f2c4fd2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-nvidia-nasdaq-nvda-close-highe-5dfb9f2c4fd2", "pool": {"NO": 126.7950856521362, "YES": 78.86740995179522}, "probability": 0.616520213273695, "p": 0.49999999999999983, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 73.51174116214395, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715985969799, "resolutionProbability": 0.62, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715607000000, "lastBetTime": 1715604027250, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVIDIA Corp - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NVDA closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 9:30am ET on May 13", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than $898.78", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes flat or lower", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-will-nvidias-nasdaq-nvda-close-fb8ac300afc9", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/03871b1a34eb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "nvidia", "tech-stocks", "finance", "gpu"], "textDescription": "NVIDIA Corp - Resolves to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nNVDA closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 9:30am ET on May 13\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than $898.78\n\nResolves NO if stock closes flat or lower\n\nDaily Dashboard\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/what-will-nvidias-nasdaq-nvda-close-fb8ac300afc9)Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "0ZMZAHGIrRvzrVeAkWAV", "creatorId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "creatorUsername": "LarsDoucet", "creatorName": "Lars Doucet", "createdTime": 1670870765834, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will I observe significant Negative Polarization around AI generated art in 2023?", "slug": "will-i-observe-significant-negative", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-i-observe-significant-negative", "pool": {"NO": 361.4153265558474, "YES": 5443.545443847123}, "probability": 0.09999999999999992, "p": 0.6259622880485394, "totalLiquidity": 2035, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24844.960974296595, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704426700269, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "resolverId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 146, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704426700718, "lastBetTime": 1704071885588, "lastCommentTime": 1704426694251, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basically, is this going to become the kind of subject where having a highly salient opinion on the subject puts you at a very significant risk of losing friends -- ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "regardless", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " of whether that opinion is positive or negative RE: generative AI art?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is admittedly a bit squishy and subjective, and I will resolve this based on my best impression of what the social temperature seems to be a year from now.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll throw in that if I lose any of my own friends over this, or I see any of my friends lose friends simply over this one subject, this market resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtKFM5F8HoC.png?alt=media&token=5db38fb6-f0b8-4510-bd67-86f676e4c20e", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Basically, is this going to become the kind of subject where having a highly salient opinion on the subject puts you at a very significant risk of losing friends -- regardless of whether that opinion is positive or negative RE: generative AI art?\n\nThis is admittedly a bit squishy and subjective, and I will resolve this based on my best impression of what the social temperature seems to be a year from now.\n\nI'll throw in that if I lose any of my own friends over this, or I see any of my friends lose friends simply over this one subject, this market resolves as YES.\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "f5XVu5ZthOWXkKahg1LO", "creatorId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "creatorUsername": "cece", "creatorName": "pancakes \u2660\ufe0e", "createdTime": 1677633302564, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhalfaswiftie%2F8PeBGfozRq.jpg?alt=media&token=3109416c-60bc-4434-8130-ba6f3589b750", "closeTime": 1717311540000, "question": "Will I make the BAMO website in my freshman or sophomore year?", "slug": "will-i-make-the-bamo-website-in-my", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cece/will-i-make-the-bamo-website-in-my", "pool": {"NO": 19.58466461701724, "YES": 805.5561227249625}, "probability": 0.027571536077829573, "p": 0.5383677894910128, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1407.6376188229203, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717346277932, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "x4Md3ynwwyWjoGOYlkJvcO9vqQT2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717311540000, "lastBetTime": 1711117357704, "lastCommentTime": 1678646910551, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "keeping with my current trend of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "stealing", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " borrowing other markets! (sorry jacob)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "market resolves yes if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at least one", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of the following happens:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my name is explicitly listed on the page of winners for 2023 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and/or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 2024 (i'm not actually sure what the cutoff is, but last year's page can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bamo.org/archives/winners/BAMO2022-award-report.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bamo.org/archives/winners/BAMO2022-award-report.pdf", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "my school (nueva) is explicitly listed for 2023 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "and/or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " 2024, but i contribute to the reason it's listed. (for example, if we got first place in participation, that counts, but if we got first place in team awards, which is the sum of the top three scores in our school, but i'm not one of the top three scores, then it ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "doesn't", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count.)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "for some context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i am currently a freshman (taking BAMO-12)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "in eighth grade, i got honorable mention with a score of 29 (which was the upper bound for honorable mentions last year)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i suck at competition math, but am a little better at proof writing (which is what BAMO is)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i have reasonable confidence that i'll perform top 3 in my school, but because of this, i have very little confidence that we will get a high team score", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "we have ten people taking the bamo for my freshman year", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["proofniks"], "textDescription": "keeping with my current trend of stealing borrowing other markets! (sorry jacob)\n\nmarket resolves yes if at least one of the following happens:\n\nmy name is explicitly listed on the page of winners for 2023 and/or 2024 (i'm not actually sure what the cutoff is, but last year's page can be found here: https://www.bamo.org/archives/winners/BAMO2022-award-report.pdf)\n\nmy school (nueva) is explicitly listed for 2023 and/or 2024, but i contribute to the reason it's listed. (for example, if we got first place in participation, that counts, but if we got first place in team awards, which is the sum of the top three scores in our school, but i'm not one of the top three scores, then it doesn't count.)\n\nfor some context:\n\ni am currently a freshman (taking BAMO-12)\n\nin eighth grade, i got honorable mention with a score of 29 (which was the upper bound for honorable mentions last year)\n\ni suck at competition math, but am a little better at proof writing (which is what BAMO is)\n\ni have reasonable confidence that i'll perform top 3 in my school, but because of this, i have very little confidence that we will get a high team score\n\nwe have ten people taking the bamo for my freshman year"}, {"id": "BlcaqUpL5xyQ6SzPyNii", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1695227913546, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1701009964992, "question": "Will Fernando Alonso finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-fernando-alonso-finish-on-the-6beccb857fbe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-fernando-alonso-finish-on-the-6beccb857fbe", "pool": {"NO": 47.49630783966131, "YES": 10567.321760006678}, "probability": 0.00108497041887389, "p": 0.19462281619435862, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10780.695810389376, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701009964992, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701009961515, "lastBetTime": 1701009961360, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "7USYuGeKSSAueGrT0kvR", "creatorId": "wjbOTRRJ7Ee5mjSMMYrtwoWuiCp2", "creatorUsername": "Gigacasting", "creatorName": "Gigacasting", "createdTime": 1673034263894, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGigacasting%2FFF26D987-E02B-4325-9C77-9AA7458AD2CC.jpeg?alt=media&token=9ebbb742-ca5f-4437-9197-05995b2e6a2b", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will OpenAI have >$300 million in revenue in 2023?", "slug": "will-openai-have-300-million-in-rev", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-openai-have-300-million-in-rev", "pool": {"NO": 3082.1310782609253, "YES": 103.04332738011368}, "probability": 0.9759966299459926, "p": 0.5761620826355743, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9677.09008694202, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704150492974, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704150493164, "lastBetTime": 1703923251109, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvcAq_bCbA9.png?alt=media&token=43a89d5d-dd1a-4936-864d-f827aa59b410", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "BiXvKzTI9urJJOplHaj0", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700418696430, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700972600235, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Iowa State beat #19 Kansas State?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-iowa-state-beat-ka", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-iowa-state-beat-ka", "pool": {"NO": 3942.7264325763717, "YES": 13.919011589011387}, "probability": 0.9997082261864477, "p": 0.923640307437865, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5268.1772227506435, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700972600235, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700972485434, "lastBetTime": 1700972485302, "lastCommentTime": 1700969806480, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 8 PM ET in Manhattan, KS.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Iowa State 52", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Kansas State 50, Tie 4", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Iowa State 3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Kansas State 2, Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/164777c19716.png?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=e008H9h3rDfmoi0oNcCYRsU%2B9ug48%2F2hi0%2FDAA6dAiNvpkXuiCkzq82qH%2B2lNDBNgmTkdzd00l%2BhxIs%2B7%2BFP7vTmGvObtZjH%2FdGA8x1PZ2N52tZSHAZExDxAx1FStb%2BJZCbLhXJ3smOutRUklojRG9olokolQCeDySTCSbneHjqY0kTXCU0ryFz7T%2FT%2FJEXZxL2QX8LHlE%2FzZMWuwYLoDHhoOlQugHXmuGbYPfIZ266TCOk4nnjAMoAXK9kipDdzFsM5wCKgz%2F8JLY4HddUkBpeu7Q8s31D9jwrGATPNfh04R2rV4%2Bm%2BnPVmUZoThfeY4rUGgvevN6fh9rSvtLT52Q%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["football", "college-football", "sports-default", "big-12"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 8 PM ET in Manhattan, KS.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: Iowa State 52, Kansas State 50, Tie 4\n\nLast 5: Iowa State 3, Kansas State 2, Tie 0"}, {"id": "66uAF8WxSFHpR6so3KSg", "creatorId": "VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1", "creatorUsername": "Tossup", "creatorName": "Tossup", "createdTime": 1692040335958, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTossup%2F_lJnNBhNvO.jpg?alt=media&token=c2e39473-2e73-4064-965d-bb9a9100a290", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will another large US university announce large faculty cuts in 2023?", "slug": "will-another-large-us-university-an", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tossup/will-another-large-us-university-an", "pool": {"NO": 75.07035175613328, "YES": 2304.957083512722}, "probability": 0.0324596977778763, "p": 0.507407910512932, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5572.445178875383, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704086134600, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "VTbvGNq8spM2EDZCug7Ox2kvEyu1", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704086135025, "lastBetTime": 1703959055849, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "West Virginia University ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recently announced plans", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://wvmetronews.com/2023/08/11/wvu-recommends-cutting-169-faculty-positions-32-majors/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to cut 7% of its faculty. Alex Tabarrok, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "writing in Marginal Revolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/08/the-wv-canary-in-the-coal-mine.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", says \"the only surprise is how long it has taken for the ax to fall. You can be sure, however, that there is more chopping to be done.\" Will other universities soon face similar cuts?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if another US institution of higher education (e.g. univeristy, college, institute of technology) with 10,000 or more enrolled students announces plans to cut 5% or more of its faculty positions. The announcement must be made in 2023, on or after 2023-08-14, and it must plan to reach the cut threshold in the next 5 years. Enrollment numbers are for the 2023 fall term and include undergraduate and graduate students. The thresholds refer to the entire institution. For example, in the case of the University of California, Berkeley, the criteria refer to the University of California, Berkeley, and not to the whole UC system or e.g. the Haas School of Business.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F85kFa9YCge.png?alt=media&token=3378ccb5-8a04-420c-96f7-596437570c10", "groupSlugs": ["higher-education", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Background:\nWest Virginia University recently announced plans to cut 7% of its faculty. Alex Tabarrok, writing in Marginal Revolution, says \"the only surprise is how long it has taken for the ax to fall. You can be sure, however, that there is more chopping to be done.\" Will other universities soon face similar cuts?\n\n\nResolution criteria:\nThis market resolves YES if another US institution of higher education (e.g. univeristy, college, institute of technology) with 10,000 or more enrolled students announces plans to cut 5% or more of its faculty positions. The announcement must be made in 2023, on or after 2023-08-14, and it must plan to reach the cut threshold in the next 5 years. Enrollment numbers are for the 2023 fall term and include undergraduate and graduate students. The thresholds refer to the entire institution. For example, in the case of the University of California, Berkeley, the criteria refer to the University of California, Berkeley, and not to the whole UC system or e.g. the Haas School of Business.\n\n\nI will not bet in this market."}, {"id": "XxCXcRiIcKUVEcQeZqEP", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1698413474701, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1700265084920, "question": "[Metaculus] Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "slug": "metaculus-will-george-weah-win-reel", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-george-weah-win-reel", "pool": {"NO": 75.22670168666455, "YES": 65.26795777491942}, "probability": 0.5495486226089059, "p": 0.514206698508678, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15.277079839256675, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700265084920, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698488097826, "lastBetTime": 1698488097668, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19525/2023-liberian-election/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19525/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if George Weah is elected as president of Liberia in 2023 according to statements from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "National Elections Commission", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.necliberia.org/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (NEC).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "world-default", "elections-world", "elections", "liberia", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19525/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if George Weah is elected as president of Liberia in 2023 according to statements from the National Elections Commission (NEC).\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous."}, {"id": "BOgvaWSQNxrrqlSlq67B", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1684425070032, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1684510200000, "question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 19th May than it closed on 18th May?", "slug": "will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-f106f3d8fc0b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-f106f3d8fc0b", "pool": {"NO": 3793.6052381767527, "YES": 103.74045774389502}, "probability": 0.9955950281541902, "p": 0.8607372429331934, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9675.758657632046, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684511424766, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684509707605, "lastBetTime": 1684509707497, "lastCommentTime": 1684509699480, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 19th May than it did on Thursday 18th May?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And here are some longer term FTSE markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC,SCqqFj9Jyi9yVKg8FDr2,NmnePAVbRiqx7LgihAXt"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FfKHUrhbcKN.png?alt=media&token=87c1ac49-9cd8-49fc-9459-16bab294051a", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "ftse-100"], "textDescription": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Friday 19th May than it did on Thursday 18th May?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nAnd here are some longer term FTSE markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "j0H8X6TlMm1upbdm83wv", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1664314333176, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1664410247481, "question": "Will Hurricane Ian strengthen to category 4 at landfall?", "slug": "will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca", "pool": {"NO": 6276.868438789274, "YES": 1.5931511226525767}, "probability": 0.9997462513547566, "p": 0.49999999999994116, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8448.550521592442, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1664410247481, "resolutionProbability": 0.9997462513547566, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1664401023159, "lastBetTime": 1664401021854, "lastCommentTime": 1664394454053, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Hurricane Ian is reported as Category 4 (or higher) at landfall, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently Ian is Category 3 but is forecasted to strengthen.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/weather/hurricane-forecast-gulf-of-mexico-florida-ian/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/weather/hurricane-forecast-gulf-of-mexico-florida-ian/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tropical Storm Ian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/23/weather/gulf-mexico-tropical-depression-storm-hermine/index.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", the ninth named storm of the 2022 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Atlantic hurricane season", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://www.cnn.com/2022/04/11/weather/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-fast-facts/index.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is forecast to reach up to Category 4", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "hurricane strength before hitting Florida next week. If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to impact the state since 2018.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Hurricane Ian is reported as Category 4 (or higher) at landfall, otherwise NO.\n\nCurrently Ian is Category 3 but is forecasted to strengthen.\n\nhttps://www.cnn.com/2022/09/24/weather/hurricane-forecast-gulf-of-mexico-florida-ian/\n\nTropical Storm Ian, the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to reach up to Category 4 hurricane strength before hitting Florida next week. If it does, it will be the first major hurricane to impact the state since 2018."}, {"id": "gmhvBSrCAgOjs5ROHPcs", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1646791079218, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?", "slug": "does-omicron-have-a-shorter-generat", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/does-omicron-have-a-shorter-generat", "pool": {"NO": 288.9390166381122, "YES": 76.27675341728451}, "probability": 0.9351752407192458, "p": 0.7920289216254698, "totalLiquidity": 100.31009757299624, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 771.9999999999999, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686738032874, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667245336440, "lastBetTime": 1667245336248, "description": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "groupSlugs": ["medicine", "metaculus"], "textDescription": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9487/omicron-generation-interval/\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "yEDZjYbxuZFORj2KZJmx", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1699833855221, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1702666800000, "question": "Will the Nasdaq (IXIC) close higher on Fri December 15th than it closed on Fri December 8th? {WEEKLY}", "slug": "will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-f120c1081ec4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-f120c1081ec4", "pool": {"NO": 4469.432823253823, "YES": 121.14351725316517}, "probability": 0.9910262301390894, "p": 0.7495838931079494, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4384.424560492135, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702677952834, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702677947006, "lastBetTime": 1702663812322, "lastCommentTime": 1702677946320, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2pm ET (7pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : 12/08/2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FV-LK0CzRqJ.png?alt=media&token=c3caa5f4-9cc5-49f2-97c4-035d2e3a2117", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "economics-default", "finance", "sccsq4", "stock-marketweekly"], "textDescription": "Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)\n\nNasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)\n\nPredictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close : 12/08/2023\n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\n"}, {"id": "QoMP3CQtRak0ugeidZ4D", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1690200074906, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1693512000000, "question": "Will Twitter's logo still be an X by the end of August? (NB - even a temporary change resolves to NO)", "slug": "will-twitters-logo-still-be-an-x-by-40f8f22ef21c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-twitters-logo-still-be-an-x-by-40f8f22ef21c", "pool": {"NO": 45284.23757447117, "YES": 519.8104211516986}, "probability": 0.9979686886071145, "p": 0.8493855808704833, "totalLiquidity": 1110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 52462.53550574668, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693512096187, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 57, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451921798, "lastBetTime": 1693511944416, "lastCommentTime": 1693512146167, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st August (the close time of this market)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes;", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/home", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/home", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"Twitter\" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"], "textDescription": "Twitter have changed their logo from the old blue bird to a black stylised X on a white background. Musk Tweeted this as the change happened:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1682964919325724673\n\nWill this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st August (the close time of this market)?\n\nResolution notes;\n\nI will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view https://twitter.com/home while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.\n\nIf the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.\n\nIf the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES\n\nIf there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A\n\nBy \"Twitter\" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market."}, {"id": "UPHOBNEZtKdDdqYTZKtb", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1693341418706, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1694393076032, "question": "Will Novak Djokovic win the US Open?", "slug": "will-novak-djokovic-win-the-us-open-377c4c13495a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-us-open-377c4c13495a", "pool": {"NO": 86971.00334296383, "YES": 60.14118406785565}, "probability": 0.9993749583417869, "p": 0.525086876602458, "totalLiquidity": 1930, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 112806.4720746545, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694393076032, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 125, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694393071437, "lastBetTime": 1694393071305, "lastCommentTime": 1694389262581, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Novak Djokovic wins the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If at any point it becomes impossible for Novak Djokovic to win in Men's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.usopen.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usopen.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), however credible reporting may also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["novak-djokovic", "us-open-2023", "tennis"], "textDescription": "The market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if Novak Djokovic wins the 2023 US Open Men's Singles tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nIf at any point it becomes impossible for Novak Djokovic to win in Men's Singles based on the rules of the US Open, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source will be official information from the US Open (https://www.usopen.org/), however credible reporting may also be used."}, {"id": "JkGU6KuNPj69tLLxOc9k", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707184678443, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707276301804, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Boston Bruins beat Calgary Flames on Feb 6?", "slug": "will-the-boston-bruins-beat-colorad", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-boston-bruins-beat-colorad", "pool": {"NO": 37.68803240892889, "YES": 2160.5080889979654}, "probability": 0.00720620584401719, "p": 0.29383629240113013, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2823.230076273344, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707276301804, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707276302564, "lastBetTime": 1707273787899, "lastCommentTime": 1707276292332, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=bruins+vs+flames#sie=m;/g/11kqmryjj9;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Boston Bruins win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F455197c1e145.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "yuna-league-beta", "hockey", "ice-hockey", "calgary-flames", "boston-bruins", "nhl"], "textDescription": "Boston Bruins vs Calgary Flames @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Boston Bruins win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "qE56pzYjSRIyIoeCu40W", "creatorId": "tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1", "creatorUsername": "Arch1e", "creatorName": "Archie", "createdTime": 1695567504119, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FArch1e%2F6tXpbVbmVK.PNG?alt=media&token=ae673ff9-0277-463f-9904-e72df9cde7a1", "closeTime": 1696612999050, "question": "[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Yuki Tsunoda outqualify his teammate at the Qatar Grand Prix?", "slug": "2023-formula-1-season-will-yuki-tsu-f36bbfb4a5da", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2023-formula-1-season-will-yuki-tsu-f36bbfb4a5da", "pool": {"NO": 162.00000000000003, "YES": 59.431820542440065}, "probability": 0.8210002936119122, "p": 0.6272349232705227, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 72, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696612999050, "resolutionProbability": 0.82, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696235703350, "lastBetTime": 1696235703069, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Yuki Tsunoda qualifies higher than his teammate in Qatar 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if Tsuonda is unable to race - the market will continue if Riccardio or any other driver is racing in place of Lawson.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(This is for the race qualifying, not the sprint shootout) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1", "motorsports"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Yuki Tsunoda qualifies higher than his teammate in Qatar 2023.\n\nResolves N/A if Tsuonda is unable to race - the market will continue if Riccardio or any other driver is racing in place of Lawson.\n\n(This is for the race qualifying, not the sprint shootout) "}, {"id": "P69OD7ZSi72sWtLNz9u1", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1705947098048, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1709682231467, "question": "[Metaculus] Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "slug": "metaculus-will-the-dune-part-two-do", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-dune-part-two-do", "pool": {"NO": 6615.806132804774, "YES": 515.1149869898119}, "probability": 0.972688751582456, "p": 0.7349606619864169, "totalLiquidity": 1030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10585.684845985126, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709682231467, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 60, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709630366319, "lastBetTime": 1709630366133, "lastCommentTime": 1706547252547, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21081/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the domestic box office weekend opening of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune: Part Two", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as reported by its ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "page on Boxofficemojo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21081/dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F59183bf4b38e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "movies"], "textDescription": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21081/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if the domestic box office weekend opening of Dune: Part Two as reported by its page on Boxofficemojo is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the Dune (2021). If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as No.\n\nThe box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "pOjAjng2L2LtMVZA4ESC", "creatorId": "7uxULhXyCVRGwkrq6QxI6uuFKu72", "creatorUsername": "Michaeld617", "creatorName": "Michael", "createdTime": 1687207212326, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcyLCQtSv5lF7P4pSjY2kcT-32v16MibXuyOtp0=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704096000000, "question": "Will Biden public announce aliens are on earth by 2024?", "slug": "will-biden-public-announce-aliens-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Michaeld617/will-biden-public-announce-aliens-a", "pool": {"NO": 251.14554417810749, "YES": 448.581945820654}, "probability": 0.0436598260615442, "p": 0.07539493682241878, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 504.1245506362198, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704144677775, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704144679101, "lastBetTime": 1704060990013, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Public statement from president Biden about UFO craft in the possession of the US government by Jan 1 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["space", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Public statement from president Biden about UFO craft in the possession of the US government by Jan 1 2024. "}, {"id": "vDYP7vwplXIUaEHFYjSi", "creatorId": "rEHBdwqHM8fIdcrwBemaavsY6GQ2", "creatorUsername": "cos", "creatorName": "cos", "createdTime": 1668751592792, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcos%2FHQxq-e3AhG.png?alt=media&token=9d8e82fe-8edb-465c-a83f-4e72668503f9", "closeTime": 1670389140000, "question": "Will the margin of victory in the Georgia runoff be 5.0% or greater?", "slug": "will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-g-2452713110f0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cos/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-g-2452713110f0", "pool": {"NO": 606.2779876575431, "YES": 6101.674628693108}, "probability": 0.03455843970374252, "p": 0.2648416454618799, "totalLiquidity": 1170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11930.626703697015, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1670430454091, "resolutionProbability": 0.03455843970374252, "uniqueBettorCount": 54, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670388374037, "lastBetTime": 1670388373925, "lastCommentTime": 1669687796662, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " This market will resolve to \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5.0% or greater", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related Questions:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "SI3QeFakcXjqXJ9WjLow,6QVhO35hdTYnwPLkm8DH"}}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "a9kyHjthCWoFMosvX4TT,VIkGZ2k2TAw19RDpZC2J"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNtBeEK-VDP.png?alt=media&token=6c7ff5b4-b5f8-4295-a399-e80ae3ff7d36", "groupSlugs": ["us-2022-midterms", "us-politics", "us-2022-elections", "politics-default", "2022-georgia-runoffs"], "textDescription": "Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to \"YES\" if the margin of victory in the runoff election for US Senator from Georgia is 5.0% or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"NO\".\n\n\nRelated Questions:\n\n[markets][markets]"}, {"id": "bUUeJS4QWPwPi8UYbbxs", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116702392, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704350700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-04 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-c7eaa72bbd37", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-c7eaa72bbd37", "pool": {"NO": 88.43371480734035, "YES": 105.23906467568288}, "probability": 0.05732896998073419, "p": 0.06748813917113743, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 51.71341415072037, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704396077905, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704396078124, "lastBetTime": 1704349179685, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-04 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fce30659183d7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-04 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "88F7BDa2Zu0wa212Ypub", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698348646618, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1698447600000, "question": "Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 27 than it closed on October 26?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-c3d10ba21782", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-c3d10ba21782", "pool": {"NO": 146.65662779718627, "YES": 844.5932847534128}, "probability": 0.03663051724154556, "p": 0.17963916043753436, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1875.269019284524, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698459461769, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698459458257, "lastBetTime": 1698446775533, "lastCommentTime": 1698459456617, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "34,154.70", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "top traders", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=btc-preleague-october", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " are eligible for a prize.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Rank---Award\n1      1000\n2      650\n3      400", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "8eb6bf93-8c7d-4e01-817a-9c7d943ca6fd", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?32904433-1e70-4ceb-990d-a2bac7055065Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "btc-preleague-october", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $34,154.70\n\n\nThis market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.\n\nRank---Award\n1      1000\n2      650\n3      400\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "8FvpZecGw8CohMQLGuf2", "creatorId": "jkwpLDB3gnNFUYEvdhT2hOlOmY42", "creatorUsername": "quantizor", "creatorName": "quantizor", "createdTime": 1701181727474, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEvanJacobs672b%2F4iZnzIMX9b.webp?alt=media&token=f1b31b32-9893-4322-87b4-98333e1f9c7a", "closeTime": 1703825940000, "question": "Will Cruise shut down before Jan 1 2024?", "slug": "will-cruise-shut-down-before-jan-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/quantizor/will-cruise-shut-down-before-jan-1", "pool": {"NO": 137.23169586187026, "YES": 982.146885838835}, "probability": 0.024992031413474565, "p": 0.15501218952284998, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1167.3065677925117, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704117746928, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "jkwpLDB3gnNFUYEvdhT2hOlOmY42", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704117747252, "lastBetTime": 1703726986410, "lastCommentTime": 1702581374830, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All employees must be informed that they have been laid off / terminated / reassigned outside of the Cruise division for this to resolve to \"Yes\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1729523575642591596"}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["cruise-llc", "selfdriving-vehicles", "general-motors", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "All employees must be informed that they have been laid off / terminated / reassigned outside of the Cruise division for this to resolve to \"Yes\". \n\n[tweet]"}, {"id": "tzdhZCe9wlCE6eMw8XX2", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700266028579, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700841600000, "question": "Will Allianz SE close higher november 24th than the close of november 14th? (Weekly Market)", "slug": "will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-b7ad6e30a389", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-b7ad6e30a389", "pool": {"NO": 681.1781173481445, "YES": 49.21072835411729}, "probability": 0.9778404449869099, "p": 0.7612174151503422, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 676.2629960492309, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700853848050, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222358541, "lastBetTime": 1700838925624, "lastCommentTime": 1700853843899, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEEmhN3lhoU.png?alt=media&token=f7a0589c-64c9-4657-8455-fc7f2fc4ac4d", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "bqu6uZqi8RZHdT2zP1vx", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1697406338219, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1697855668515, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will SMU beat Temple?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-smu-beat-temple", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-smu-beat-temple", "pool": {"NO": 2340.7510041165565, "YES": 45.350343156309826}, "probability": 0.9947344817774286, "p": 0.7854117328379177, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2304.712152719975, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697855668515, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697853835524, "lastBetTime": 1697853835198, "lastCommentTime": 1697408694552, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-10-20 at 7 PM ET in Philadelphia, PA. Line: Temple +18.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhYcqqQKTcD.png?alt=media&token=e4d4498a-3ce4-4f30-8a82-136935dc5e6f", "groupSlugs": ["college-football", "football", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "2023-10-20 at 7 PM ET in Philadelphia, PA. Line: Temple +18."}, {"id": "Ona3SiZtzVDRrSf5OMsm", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1664638028762, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672527540000, "question": "Will Mateusz Morawiecki stay Prime Minister of Poland through 2022?", "slug": "will-mateusz-morawiecki-stay-prime", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-mateusz-morawiecki-stay-prime", "pool": {"NO": 1161.9629332419936, "YES": 121.66860852260484}, "probability": 0.97140678873654, "p": 0.7805733977954064, "totalLiquidity": 232, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1242.78455190747, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1672658571839, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672516433726, "lastBetTime": 1672516433567, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if, by December 31 2022, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If in 2022 Mateusz Morawiecki for any reason will stop being Prime Minister of Poland, this market will resolve to \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["poland", "central-europe", "leaders"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if, by December 31 2022, 6 PM ET, Mateusz Morawiecki is the head of the Polish government.\n\nIf in 2022 Mateusz Morawiecki for any reason will stop being Prime Minister of Poland, this market will resolve to \"NO\"."}, {"id": "kPZGWXC6iEqW31UEEgeP", "creatorId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "creatorUsername": "xyz", "creatorName": "Yona", "createdTime": 1697491797134, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FYoav%2FR0iyH_7-6l.jpeg?alt=media&token=21944a76-17f4-49cd-99c0-05d4951471d1", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Manifold seize any accounts with negative net worth by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-seize-accounts-with-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-manifold-seize-accounts-with-n", "pool": {"NO": 213.10473374662575, "YES": 356.38561314059916}, "probability": 0.18939785581935972, "p": 0.2809613644508609, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2385.055035935737, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705647376020, "resolutionProbability": 0.19, "resolverId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705647376234, "lastBetTime": 1703846846327, "lastCommentTime": 1705647355826, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll consider sieze to mean anything from intentionally preventing the user from logging in, to wiping away any existence of the account, to liquidating some of the user's positions unilaterally.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The reasoning here would be that there is nothing preventing accounts with negative net worth from playing around with essentially free money and simply dumping the accounts when the loans are called in and turn the balance negative.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "I'll consider sieze to mean anything from intentionally preventing the user from logging in, to wiping away any existence of the account, to liquidating some of the user's positions unilaterally.\n\nThe reasoning here would be that there is nothing preventing accounts with negative net worth from playing around with essentially free money and simply dumping the accounts when the loans are called in and turn the balance negative."}, {"id": "yQL8GBLnht9UR46I68el", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1710965560110, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1711135800000, "question": "Will MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) close higher Mar 22 than Mar 21?", "slug": "will-microstrategy-nasdaq-mstr-clos-23aa99ab2c19", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-microstrategy-nasdaq-mstr-clos-23aa99ab2c19", "pool": {"NO": 43.29074509064642, "YES": 824.8020097146688}, "probability": 0.021570876965560624, "p": 0.29579565050398926, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1945.9766052295615, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711138134837, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711135800000, "lastBetTime": 1711134753656, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MicroStrategy Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/mstr", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MSTR closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 3:30pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if MSTR closes higher Mar 22 than Mar 21", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if MSTR closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["microstrategy", "nasdaq", "tech-stocks", "gpu", "ai-stocks", "stocks", "mstr"], "textDescription": "MicroStrategy Inc - Daily Dashboard\n\nResolves according to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nMSTR closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 3:30pm ET\n\nInitial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.\n\nResolves YES if MSTR closes higher Mar 22 than Mar 21\n\nResolves NO if MSTR closes lower or flat\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "ig0UYohPQ0mgyxIgX4Fs", "creatorId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "creatorUsername": "PlasmaBallin", "creatorName": "Plasma Ballin'", "createdTime": 1682223216476, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlasmaBallin%2FYrJAoOelNo.webp?alt=media&token=f4264f7d-f428-4baf-a942-444e233b50a5", "closeTime": 1682999940000, "question": "Will my three variant mean markets all resolve to the side with the theoretical advantage?", "slug": "will-my-three-variant-mean-markets", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-my-three-variant-mean-markets", "pool": {"NO": 1526.3744664771896, "YES": 33.44081861344965}, "probability": 0.9885640973648502, "p": 0.6544419900519488, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2044.124440038163, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683000596289, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682950138114, "lastBetTime": 1682950137942, "lastCommentTime": 1682263680069, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recently, I made three markets inspired by \"The Market\", but instead of using the arithmetic mean to determine the average, they used other types of means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "Sp4O1BxukZAEtTju5wXu,nzqMET5FPStIQwe6yt8a,oa2rzyAVjqS8QxWzbyKp"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the geometric mean skews lower than the arithmetic mean, while the other two skew higher, I didn't use a mean of 1/2 as the cutoff point between a YES and NO victory. Instead, I used a mean of all values between 0 and 1. Even though this was calculated as a \"fair\" threshold, it actually gives an advantage to one side. The mean of each market would only be close to the mean of all values between 0 and 1 if the market's pobability over time was uniformly distributed between 0 and 1, but in reality, it is much more likely to be close to 50% for most of the run than at extreme values, and it is very hard for one team to hold the market at an extreme value. This gives the team that wins if the final mean is 50% an advantage, since all they have to do is prevent the market from going to extreme values for too long, while the other team needs to push the market to extreme values to win.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thus, Team YES has an advantage on the geometric mean market, and Team NO has an advantage on the other two. These advantages can also become self-fulfilling prophecies, since people will bet on whichever side has the advantage, making the results favor that side even more.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if the advantaged team wins in all three of these markets, i.e., if Team YES wins the geometric mean market and Team NO wins in the RMS and exponential mean markets. It will resolve NO if the disadvantaged team wins any of them.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["selfresolving", "metaforecasting"], "textDescription": "Recently, I made three markets inspired by \"The Market\", but instead of using the arithmetic mean to determine the average, they used other types of means:\n\n[markets]Since the geometric mean skews lower than the arithmetic mean, while the other two skew higher, I didn't use a mean of 1/2 as the cutoff point between a YES and NO victory. Instead, I used a mean of all values between 0 and 1. Even though this was calculated as a \"fair\" threshold, it actually gives an advantage to one side. The mean of each market would only be close to the mean of all values between 0 and 1 if the market's pobability over time was uniformly distributed between 0 and 1, but in reality, it is much more likely to be close to 50% for most of the run than at extreme values, and it is very hard for one team to hold the market at an extreme value. This gives the team that wins if the final mean is 50% an advantage, since all they have to do is prevent the market from going to extreme values for too long, while the other team needs to push the market to extreme values to win.\n\nThus, Team YES has an advantage on the geometric mean market, and Team NO has an advantage on the other two. These advantages can also become self-fulfilling prophecies, since people will bet on whichever side has the advantage, making the results favor that side even more.\n\nThis market will resolve YES if the advantaged team wins in all three of these markets, i.e., if Team YES wins the geometric mean market and Team NO wins in the RMS and exponential mean markets. It will resolve NO if the disadvantaged team wins any of them."}, {"id": "p5gQASlHFva0cH6GuRlt", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1663802452724, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1664599975798, "question": "Will Russia annex any part of Ukraine in 2022?", "slug": "will-russia-annex-any-part-of-ukrai", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-annex-any-part-of-ukrai", "pool": {"NO": 10671.463991755547, "YES": 0.9370785496466851}, "probability": 0.999912196089383, "p": 0.5000000000001549, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10571.463991755547, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1664599975798, "resolutionProbability": 0.9783016197000454, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1664599969537, "lastBetTime": 1664599969344, "lastCommentTime": 1664599601080, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if during 2022, Russia announces annexation of any part of Ukraine that was not already annexed (i.e. excluding Crimea). Otherwise resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES resolution is based purely on official Russian announcement, regardless of whether Russia occupies or controls the relevant regions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965998", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965998", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Four areas of Ukraine under Moscow's control have announced plans for urgent so-called referendums on joining Russia, which would pave the way for Russian annexation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-annex-unoccupied-parts", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if during 2022, Russia announces annexation of any part of Ukraine that was not already annexed (i.e. excluding Crimea). Otherwise resolves NO.\n\nYES resolution is based purely on official Russian announcement, regardless of whether Russia occupies or controls the relevant regions.\n\nBackground\n\nhttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62965998\n\nFour areas of Ukraine under Moscow's control have announced plans for urgent so-called referendums on joining Russia, which would pave the way for Russian annexation.\n\nRelated\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-annex-unoccupied-parts)"}, {"id": "Rf7ghvy99TjrUGhqiY4k", "creatorId": "nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972", "creatorUsername": "SEE", "creatorName": "SEE", "createdTime": 1709317921687, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStevenEhrbar%2FW500KZIyuo.jpg?alt=media&token=1de4c13b-fae4-4da1-90d4-d49ff5ae1dfb", "closeTime": 1711951140000, "question": "Will Joe Biden still be alive on April 1st, 2024?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ap", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SEE/will-joe-biden-still-be-alive-on-ap", "pool": {"NO": 3129.35206196167, "YES": 233.42373601874297}, "probability": 0.9954611994983864, "p": 0.9423951301186271, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7314.503486503743, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711975829401, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "nGqj7RrqB4Uw8DfT68ahLzK16972", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711951140000, "lastBetTime": 1711949178902, "lastCommentTime": 1711142088722, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As usual, I will not bet on my own market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SEE%2F93114202f0bd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["death-markets", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"], "textDescription": "Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.\n\nAs usual, I will not bet on my own market."}, {"id": "q3HpFD6wet9NY7dyAUKY", "creatorId": "LK6CCZswBMWC6t9Vb6ckkCvYgKI2", "creatorUsername": "wilkess", "creatorName": "David Wilkes", "createdTime": 1691910389406, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdrElFQf6z03gQPpj05OlAZUfNHQrYOQMkiA8hJH10P=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will the Crimean Bridge (Kerch Bridge) be successfully attacked once again by 2024?", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-kerch-bridg-6b7a0b55fd1a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilkess/will-the-crimean-bridge-kerch-bridg-6b7a0b55fd1a", "pool": {"NO": 38.04983053917772, "YES": 5162.575641428902}, "probability": 0.009749341299822058, "p": 0.5718825050329285, "totalLiquidity": 863, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12534.84136818765, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704155451943, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 44, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704155452220, "lastBetTime": 1704032106268, "lastCommentTime": 1693346450797, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If by the end of the year the BBC does not report on another a successful attack (hit) on the bridge, then this question is said to have failed. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(This is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "a re-post of a previous question; I had unintended ambiguity which meant it had to resolve YES, but this one is definitely about it being hit, however light the damage)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "world-default", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Famous for having been hit twice (even if the amount of damage was not catastrophic), news reports of the Kerch bridge being attacked are widely shared within Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia may well step up their security of the bridge rendering future attacks harder.\n\nIf by the end of the year the BBC does not report on another a successful attack (hit) on the bridge, then this question is said to have failed. \n\n(This is not a re-post of a previous question; I had unintended ambiguity which meant it had to resolve YES, but this one is definitely about it being hit, however light the damage)"}, {"id": "yfI7uvXysqqmGbKNgzj3", "creatorId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "creatorUsername": "Conflux", "creatorName": "Conflux", "createdTime": 1688326050987, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FConflux%2FIaFDTz3rB-.png?alt=media&token=d064eaf3-f07d-4e16-9cdd-373b64a5cd17", "closeTime": 1707973140000, "question": "Will Proof School be in the top 50% at OPTIC?", "slug": "will-proof-school-be-in-the-top-50", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-proof-school-be-in-the-top-50", "pool": {"NO": 1164.0165807997719, "YES": 185.87460214113557}, "probability": 0.9196077564092373, "p": 0.6462211815068376, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1468.4423477275413, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709308759226, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709308759444, "lastBetTime": 1707093893851, "lastCommentTime": 1699925668392, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's mostly a college competition, but we've got that Manifold forecasting expertise...", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7qezlpyRRFA1hGfFdRqC", "label": "/Conflux/will-proof-school-submit-multiple-t"}}, {"text": "resolves YES, this market resolves based on whichever team I predict beforehand is likely to do better. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "MrsqbgWLIfQ5TYTGBMZI", "label": "/Conflux/will-proof-school-compete-at-optic"}}, {"text": " resolves NO, this market resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["proofniks", "optic"], "textDescription": "It's mostly a college competition, but we've got that Manifold forecasting expertise...\n\nIf @/Conflux/will-proof-school-submit-multiple-tresolves YES, this market resolves based on whichever team I predict beforehand is likely to do better. \n\nIf @/Conflux/will-proof-school-compete-at-optic resolves NO, this market resolves N/A.\n\nGeneral policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion."}, {"id": "ztnAvU3DteyhC2h4GIYC", "creatorId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "creatorUsername": "BTE", "creatorName": "Brian T. Edwards", "createdTime": 1667495567361, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2FaSsPoXaRJr.png?alt=media&token=bb7d2e7c-7345-43a6-aae9-3fcd8f17498c", "closeTime": 1668047163174, "question": "Will Alexander Calder's sculpture 'Petite croix' (1968) fetch more than $4.5mm at auction on November 17th?", "slug": "will-alexander-calders-sculpture-pe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-alexander-calders-sculpture-pe", "pool": {"NO": 504.6312158606238, "YES": 52.157382561381915}, "probability": 0.93, "p": 0.5786239654369718, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 604.0992643732362, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1668047163174, "resolutionProbability": 0.7668740818114617, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668047159654, "lastBetTime": 1668047154360, "lastCommentTime": 1668047157605, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FR5WkVwD4pA.jpeg?alt=media&token=3ef2ed51-fc95-4748-bd9b-9e1d5d0451dc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Alexander Calder", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.phillips.com/artist/11020/alexander-calder", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Petite croix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "signed with the artist's monogram and date \"68 CA\" on the orange element", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "sheet metal, rod, wire and paint", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "91 x 92 x 69 in. (231.1 x 233.7 x 175.3 cm)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Executed in 1968, this work is registered in the archives of the Calder Foundation, New York, under application number A09022.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fss9XB3zC-j.png?alt=media&token=c59e2955-84e5-4d2c-8e78-fe3f50f2a354", "groupSlugs": ["art-dealer"], "textDescription": "[image]Alexander Calder\n\nPetite croix\n\nsigned with the artist's monogram and date \"68 CA\" on the orange element\nsheet metal, rod, wire and paint\n91 x 92 x 69 in. (231.1 x 233.7 x 175.3 cm)\nExecuted in 1968, this work is registered in the archives of the Calder Foundation, New York, under application number A09022."}, {"id": "8WxO7XMqC9cxLmOxwhNM", "creatorId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "creatorUsername": "Agh", "creatorName": "Agh", "createdTime": 1683966639341, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAghgg2%2FIjSFdFdbHO.jpg?alt=media&token=7fcbf9aa-3d8e-4b3a-896a-92c3aadf6a66", "closeTime": 1684315559542, "question": "Will the whatever-podcast episode with Destiny be longer than 5 hours?", "slug": "will-the-whateverpodcast-episode-wi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-the-whateverpodcast-episode-wi", "pool": {"NO": 1353.0126640364867, "YES": 42.78467978494315}, "probability": 0.9733089560624337, "p": 0.5355560293950845, "totalLiquidity": 295, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2186.768331802071, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684315559542, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684309203979, "lastBetTime": 1684309203753, "lastCommentTime": 1684307781800, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny will be on the whatever podcast on July 16th 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the episode is longer than 5 hours this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will measure this purely by the length of the youtube vod on their channel, so any dead air, breaks or whatever will still count towards the length (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@whatever/streams", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@whatever/streams", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They had a few episodes longer than 5 hours so it's not impossible.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FZXzazUL1pF.png?alt=media&token=f5c86498-0c16-41d5-9b01-b19f506597f9", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "Destiny will be on the whatever podcast on July 16th 2023.\n\nIf the episode is longer than 5 hours this market will resolve to YES.\n\nI will measure this purely by the length of the youtube vod on their channel, so any dead air, breaks or whatever will still count towards the length (https://www.youtube.com/@whatever/streams)\n\nThey had a few episodes longer than 5 hours so it's not impossible.\n\n"}, {"id": "3JKTtRlPc80cjUxcnrJc", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703624242398, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703644718705, "question": "Will the Detroit Pistons get the single-season losing streak tonight against the Brooklyn Nets?", "slug": "will-the-detroit-pistons-get-the-si", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-detroit-pistons-get-the-si", "pool": {"NO": 1803.0886667336817, "YES": 354.9344548140539}, "probability": 0.9393758027767216, "p": 0.7530969545846353, "totalLiquidity": 555, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1409.408008097537, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703644732889, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222937397, "lastBetTime": 1703644685851, "lastCommentTime": 1703644035224, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, the Pistons are tied with the 2010-11 Cavaliers and 2013-14 76ers at 26 straight losses within the same season (the 2014-15 and 2015-16 76ers have the longest multiple-season losing streak at 28). Will the Pistons lose for the 27th time to take the crown for a single season?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Pistons lose", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Pistons win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets cancelled or rescheduled, resulting in another game being played for this honor", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F28795bdfca82.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nba", "detroit"], "textDescription": "Currently, the Pistons are tied with the 2010-11 Cavaliers and 2013-14 76ers at 26 straight losses within the same season (the 2014-15 and 2015-16 76ers have the longest multiple-season losing streak at 28). Will the Pistons lose for the 27th time to take the crown for a single season?\n\nYes - Pistons lose\n\nNo - Pistons win\n\nN/A - Game gets cancelled or rescheduled, resulting in another game being played for this honor\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401585034"}, {"id": "XGsLBP0VwK2omggO946h", "creatorId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "creatorUsername": "JoshuaWilkes", "creatorName": "Josh Wilkes", "createdTime": 1676590644768, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshuaWilkes%2FXIGVWxU1ja.jpg?alt=media&token=f06848d8-7813-437c-a516-65b151c295c8", "closeTime": 1682528400000, "question": "Will one or more running backs be drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft?", "slug": "will-one-or-more-running-backs-be-d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-one-or-more-running-backs-be-d", "pool": {"NO": 164.99999999999997, "YES": 59.66626810730605}, "probability": 0.845756333444343, "p": 0.6647465567041758, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 75, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682666530075, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682471787085, "lastBetTime": 1682471786911, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've changed the market to close before the draft starts.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdnepJSr64b.png?alt=media&token=2cbf951b-d0e1-4374-acaf-fb5ed6cb7c2f", "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "I've changed the market to close before the draft starts."}, {"id": "MntpbKvSxuhopaRpzmrZ", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1714310249652, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1715410740000, "question": "Will The Fall Guy have a higher RottenTomatoes Critics score than Challengers?", "slug": "will-the-fall-guy-have-a-higher-rot", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-the-fall-guy-have-a-higher-rot", "pool": {"NO": 52.52343753508984, "YES": 4080.2759078986423}, "probability": 0.010000000000000023, "p": 0.4396803448440936, "totalLiquidity": 360, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5418.629555685674, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715448421672, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715410740000, "lastBetTime": 1715387382578, "lastCommentTime": 1715448018858, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which romance film will critics prefer in aggregate: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Fall Guy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_fall_guy_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " [YES] or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Challengers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " [NO]?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if The Fall Guy has a strictly higher score than Challengers, Resolves NO if Challengers has an equal, or higher, score to Gosling\u2019s action flick. This will be assessed one week following the release date of the latter film, The Fall Guy", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "film-battles", "rotten-tomatoes"], "textDescription": "Which romance film will critics prefer in aggregate: The Fall Guy [YES] or Challengers [NO]?\n\nResolves YES if The Fall Guy has a strictly higher score than Challengers, Resolves NO if Challengers has an equal, or higher, score to Gosling\u2019s action flick. This will be assessed one week following the release date of the latter film, The Fall Guy"}, {"id": "c1THlDJoSwhmIeXbz3bz", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700578347524, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700668800000, "question": "Will Deutsche Telekom close higher november 22th than the close of november 21th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-8eb7600d1e9e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-8eb7600d1e9e", "pool": {"NO": 375.87153318624996, "YES": 117.13856912656011}, "probability": 0.8682058984488338, "p": 0.6724524563806472, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 287.25469297160345, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700673545633, "resolutionProbability": 0.87, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222349618, "lastBetTime": 1700668693061, "lastCommentTime": 1700673541119, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5bVqisMTC-.png?alt=media&token=822db131-7d0b-42e4-aef5-21d1fbcd0883", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "kIaq4aovAsajJefI8UVM", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1679961050946, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1688423683555, "question": "Will Biden's classified documents be largely out of the news on June 1, according to Google Trends data?", "slug": "will-bidens-classified-documents-be-1fa3a3414a5d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-bidens-classified-documents-be-1fa3a3414a5d", "pool": {"NO": 1439.9510168690267, "YES": 230.15705790124107}, "probability": 0.980233153205095, "p": 0.8879710563766297, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4404.254910786911, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688423691897, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688423702605, "lastBetTime": 1688169314298, "lastCommentTime": 1688423699741, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Google Trends data for \"Biden classified documents\" shows June 1 at 5% or lower compared to the January 12 peak. Otherwise NO. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Biden%20classified%20documents&hl=en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Biden%20classified%20documents&hl=en", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "4ksSj4uraDNX0BjMvLE9,rlojWRroLluATsjJlw9U"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FjSHETc1trW.png?alt=media&token=76bdb402-5947-4d58-b9cd-d24aa00fbb6b", "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the Google Trends data for \"Biden classified documents\" shows June 1 at 5% or lower compared to the January 12 peak. Otherwise NO. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Biden%20classified%20documents&hl=en\n\nRelated:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "FCLnyHbnhbWrBuxToJRO", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1699638016719, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1699891200000, "question": "Will Siemens close higher november 13th than the close of november 10th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-siemens-close-higher-november-f9c282720a19", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-november-f9c282720a19", "pool": {"NO": 888.727600167352, "YES": 68.00291921923512}, "probability": 0.9567277480449565, "p": 0.628495321375413, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 830.43852623187, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699895213602, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222340025, "lastBetTime": 1699890949539, "lastCommentTime": 1699895208258, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7LFVke0FXr.png?alt=media&token=8d1ddd65-254a-47c4-8514-e615a3bf69f6", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "TuBtEvyaar5omJjbezgG", "creatorId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "creatorUsername": "WilliamHoward", "creatorName": "Will Howard", "createdTime": 1699558220786, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWilliamHoward%2FTSvBWbNctD.jpg?alt=media&token=20237f08-3019-4874-bb8c-a844826f2fe1", "closeTime": 1703203140000, "question": "Will the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $50k?", "slug": "will-the-ea-forum-donation-election-664009757798", "url": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-the-ea-forum-donation-election-664009757798", "pool": {"NO": 86.68722324023953, "YES": 4337.291680727294}, "probability": 0.006932846012650118, "p": 0.2588740392214166, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4424.1211651275535, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703238905330, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "ehcCycHGG0Z9cZDcXpTRmKL4h342", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703212465747, "lastBetTime": 1703177925141, "lastCommentTime": 1703212465043, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The EA Forum is hosting a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "donation election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/giving-portal", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", where we will distribute a pot of donations based on what Forum users vote for. Will the pot cross $50,000?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relevant info:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can learn more about the Donation Election:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Giving Portal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/giving-portal", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " on the forum (best concise intro)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announcement post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hAzhyikPnLnMXweXG/participate-in-the-donation-election-and-the-first-weekly#Participate_in_the_Donation_Election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In this ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "pre-announcement post", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/x2KfyNe8oPR4dqGkf/ea-forum-plans-for-giving-season-2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (similar info to the post above)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...I will add more links here if more relevant info comes out", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can donate to the donation election fund ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/fundraisers/ea-forum-donation-election-fund-2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We are planning to match $5k of donations, which will be added to the pot (i.e. it counts for this market). I'll update here when we've done this matching", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At time of writing we haven't decided on the exact voting system yet", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other markets on this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $25k? [YES]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-the-ea-forum-donation-election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $40k?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-the-ea-forum-donation-election-d3637ccb16b7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $75k?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-the-ea-forum-donation-election-d5a0ec4ca45e", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $100k?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/WilliamHoward/will-the-ea-forum-donation-election-5ee8d9569836", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will be decided based on the number in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Giving Portal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/giving-portal", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (screenshot below). This is the same as the number in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "fundraiser on Giving What We Can", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/fundraisers/ea-forum-donation-election-fund-2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (which is where you actually donate), but if these end up different for some reason (e.g. the match doesn't technically go through Giving What We Can), I will use the number on the forum", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve when the fundraiser closes (before the money is actually distributed), this is expected to be 1 day before the close date on this market", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donating to the fund to try and rig this market is strongly encouraged", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5ux7W2gq6Q.06?alt=media&token=a5ac3b1c-485b-471e-b19e-6df7c8bf61c1", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["effective-altruism"], "textDescription": "The EA Forum is hosting a donation election, where we will distribute a pot of donations based on what Forum users vote for. Will the pot cross $50,000?\n\nRelevant info:\n\nYou can learn more about the Donation Election:\n\nIn the Giving Portal on the forum (best concise intro)\n\nIn this announcement post\n\nIn this pre-announcement post (similar info to the post above)\n\n...I will add more links here if more relevant info comes out\n\nYou can donate to the donation election fund here\n\nWe are planning to match $5k of donations, which will be added to the pot (i.e. it counts for this market). I'll update here when we've done this matching\n\nAt time of writing we haven't decided on the exact voting system yet\n\nOther markets on this:\n\nWill the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $25k? [YES]\n\nWill the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $40k?\n\nWill the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $75k?\n\nWill the EA Forum Donation Election Fund raise $100k?\n\nResolution criteria:\n\nThe market will be decided based on the number in the Giving Portal (screenshot below). This is the same as the number in the fundraiser on Giving What We Can (which is where you actually donate), but if these end up different for some reason (e.g. the match doesn't technically go through Giving What We Can), I will use the number on the forum\n\nThis will resolve when the fundraiser closes (before the money is actually distributed), this is expected to be 1 day before the close date on this market\n\nDonating to the fund to try and rig this market is strongly encouraged\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "36itqJr1q66REZutCEbF", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1716305789700, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1717128271965, "question": "Will this Bird Monument sell for >600,000EUR at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included)", "slug": "will-this-bird-monument-sell-for-60", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-this-bird-monument-sell-for-60", "pool": {"NO": 121.75572740296593, "YES": 12281.25443555255}, "probability": 0.009999999999999986, "p": 0.504673037906232, "totalLiquidity": 1250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14807.169403963477, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717128271965, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717128295123, "lastBetTime": 1717128108418, "lastCommentTime": 1717128293850, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sotheby's auction house in Paris is about to auction off a large Bird Monument. Link:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne. Monument \u00e0 l'oiseau", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/important-design-2/monument-a-loiseau?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sotheby's gave it an estimated value of 600,000 - 800,000 EUR. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >600,000EUR. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example from a past auction: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This painting by Vig\u00e9e Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2024/a-scholar-collects/self-portrait-in-traveling-costume?locale=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". This is the number I will use. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "This is the equivalent number I will use.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell for any reason (e.g. no bid meets the minimum reserve price), this market resolves NO. It ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "only", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >600,000 EUR.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FmmslMxyTY-.png?alt=media&token=4fd18046-8aa4-4e14-aec8-0d99badc51b3", "title": null}}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 1978, Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne created the monumental sculpture Noah's Dove, a dove holding an olive branch in its beak, a symbol of freedom, perched on a stone obelisk, for the Lavinia Garden in Jerusalem, Israel.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bird Monument we present here, created in 1984, follows in the footsteps of the Jerusalem monument. The majestic dove with its wings spread is ready to take to the skies to guide freedom.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Perched over three meters high on the Burgundy stone obelisk, it turns with the wind. Its stylized lines and delicate curves are emblematic of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's style.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This work is one of the rare examples of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's monumental work.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "For more auctions, check out the ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/animated-oscars-2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix/bc3d856ae822.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "arts", "economics-default", "entertainment", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "The Sotheby's auction house in Paris is about to auction off a large Bird Monument. Link:\n\nFran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne. Monument \u00e0 l'oiseau\n\nSotheby's gave it an estimated value of 600,000 - 800,000 EUR. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >600,000EUR. \n\nResolution details: \n\nExample from a past auction: This painting by Vig\u00e9e Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD. This is the number I will use. This is the equivalent number I will use.\n\nNote that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.\n\nIf the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell for any reason (e.g. no bid meets the minimum reserve price), this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >600,000 EUR.\n\nDetails\n\n[image]In 1978, Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne created the monumental sculpture Noah's Dove, a dove holding an olive branch in its beak, a symbol of freedom, perched on a stone obelisk, for the Lavinia Garden in Jerusalem, Israel.\n\nThe Bird Monument we present here, created in 1984, follows in the footsteps of the Jerusalem monument. The majestic dove with its wings spread is ready to take to the skies to guide freedom.\n\nPerched over three meters high on the Burgundy stone obelisk, it turns with the wind. Its stylized lines and delicate curves are emblematic of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's style.\n\nThis work is one of the rare examples of Fran\u00e7ois-Xavier Lalanne's monumental work.\n\nFor more auctions, check out the dashboard."}, {"id": "UQZuwQlWJUomydQLiFbH", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702935266705, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703113200000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-6fe0ed74af10", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-2-6fe0ed74af10", "pool": {"NO": 702.9607681079195, "YES": 131.75989837600073}, "probability": 0.9381001639299418, "p": 0.7396248123892515, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 956.273254443734, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703223248122, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703223240773, "lastBetTime": 1703111958777, "lastCommentTime": 1703223240038, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.1194", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fc987515b02f9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.1194\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "VTcTFdbBfRHl9OjNdSAS", "creatorId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "creatorUsername": "DismalScientist", "creatorName": "DismalScientist", "createdTime": 1673363136972, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDismalScientist%2F_trI0_uAPH.png?alt=media&token=35fa7626-92cc-4b8b-8b16-0ce5136b681e", "closeTime": 1709514310448, "question": "Will Shehbaz Sharif be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024?", "slug": "will-shehbaz-sharif-be-prime-minist", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-shehbaz-sharif-be-prime-minist", "pool": {"NO": 588.0812885834799, "YES": 37.26623096018588}, "probability": 0.9431003575622602, "p": 0.512274043572503, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1227.1986685157433, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709514310448, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709509043286, "lastBetTime": 1709473087959, "lastCommentTime": 1709509042780, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current prime minister. Elections scheduled for October 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5gOs2jxgkB.png?alt=media&token=bc3d5520-9b16-4eb2-b4bc-a0240947a0e6", "groupSlugs": ["pakistan", "politics-default", "ancient-markets"], "textDescription": "Current prime minister. Elections scheduled for October 2023."}, {"id": "FSfCVi60VciLMSYeNu1u", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1664450612797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672527540000, "question": "Will Chinese yuan (1 CNY) fall below $0.10 USD in 2022?", "slug": "will-chinese-yuan-1-cny-fall-below", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-chinese-yuan-1-cny-fall-below", "pool": {"NO": 55.83471152772031, "YES": 633.9095921563139}, "probability": 0.03377853836349473, "p": 0.28413200999768307, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 563.5447614015068, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672960180001, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672515145918, "lastBetTime": 1672515145809, "lastCommentTime": 1664500625382, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to \"YES\" if at any point of year 2022, the exchange rate between Chinese yuan-renminbi (CNY-RMB) and U.S. dollar (USD) is below 0.100000, according to Yahoo! Finance, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNYUSD=X/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNYUSD=X/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Otherwise, if the exchange rate CNY/USD is always above 0.10000 in 2022, this will resolve to \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "forex", "china"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve to \"YES\" if at any point of year 2022, the exchange rate between Chinese yuan-renminbi (CNY-RMB) and U.S. dollar (USD) is below 0.100000, according to Yahoo! Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CNYUSD=X/\n\nOtherwise, if the exchange rate CNY/USD is always above 0.10000 in 2022, this will resolve to \"NO\"."}, {"id": "nxe4Rtho7aF2nB4tlgVG", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1706926410101, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714535996395, "question": "Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 surpass 170M views?", "slug": "will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c13ec5a46728", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-c13ec5a46728", "pool": {"NO": 121.1976785059577, "YES": 2787.880827420723}, "probability": 0.01009615892354711, "p": 0.19002639851059488, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2555.0097615456752, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714609893116, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714535996395, "lastBetTime": 1714301285740, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the video view counts on Mr Beast's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 170M views at the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Ffa8907939138.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["mr-beast"], "textDescription": "Resolution base on the video view counts on Mr Beast's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH \nhttps://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos\nResolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 170M views at the end of the month \n(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that) \n*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month \n"}, {"id": "AqD5hxllh4KQqfQ7qmmf", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698010931478, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1698102000000, "question": "Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 23 than it closed on October 22?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-77f1e66942bd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-oc-77f1e66942bd", "pool": {"NO": 2994.119313314965, "YES": 121.78482697557692}, "probability": 0.9905845142452228, "p": 0.8105810015527403, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2973.622526341406, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698106682060, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698106674918, "lastBetTime": 1698101809938, "lastCommentTime": 1698106674400, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "30,004.10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "top traders", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=btc-preleague-october", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " are eligible for a prize.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Rank---Award\n1      1000\n2      650\n3      400", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "8eb6bf93-8c7d-4e01-817a-9c7d943ca6fd", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?32904433-1e70-4ceb-990d-a2bac7055065Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "btc-preleague-october", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $30,004.10\n\n\nThis market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.\n\nRank---Award\n1      1000\n2      650\n3      400\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "CI3QA6PpxOiZm9s0l0kh", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1694633685265, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1694641920000, "question": "Will UA flight 2618 from Philadelphia to Chicago on 2023-09-14 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-ua-flight-2618-from-philadelph", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ua-flight-2618-from-philadelph", "pool": {"NO": 48.417444664783645, "YES": 90.90800314383294}, "probability": 0.9424270677965015, "p": 0.9684887996670203, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694762673763, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694634936723, "lastBetTime": 1694634936603, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/hrfh7rpb", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/hrfh7rpb", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/hrfh7rpb"}, {"id": "Mn7xOKoxTWE6tuid5K2y", "creatorId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "creatorUsername": "chrisjbillington", "creatorName": "Chris Billington", "createdTime": 1699155621356, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FChrisBillington%2FjLc4I6rx5f.jpg?alt=media&token=cbff96f7-53b4-45ec-93fe-df29764eebe6", "closeTime": 1699296689595, "question": "Will unique trader bonuses be restored before Tuesday?", "slug": "will-unique-trader-bonuses-be-resto", "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-unique-trader-bonuses-be-resto", "pool": {"NO": 10855.398420570522, "YES": 14.582218185902093}, "probability": 0.9997976956838772, "p": 0.8690881340494351, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11770.219121386603, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699296689595, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699296682366, "lastBetTime": 1699296682218, "lastCommentTime": 1699288484359, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold currently isn't paying unique trader bonuses, due to an as-of-yet unidentified bug. Trader bonuses ceased around 13:15 Nov 3rd PDT.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will unique  trader bonuses resume before Tuesday, Nov 7th, PST?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I see trader bonuses being paid to normal market creators for normal traders like normal. Trader bonuses paid as part of debugging or testing to resolve the problem don't count, they only count as a result of the problem being fixed, to my satisfaction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Clarification: backpayment of missing bonuses is not required for this market to resolve YES, only the resumption of new bonuses.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"], "textDescription": "Manifold currently isn't paying unique trader bonuses, due to an as-of-yet unidentified bug. Trader bonuses ceased around 13:15 Nov 3rd PDT.\n\nWill unique  trader bonuses resume before Tuesday, Nov 7th, PST?\n\nResolves YES if I see trader bonuses being paid to normal market creators for normal traders like normal. Trader bonuses paid as part of debugging or testing to resolve the problem don't count, they only count as a result of the problem being fixed, to my satisfaction.\n\nResolves NO otherwise.\n\nClarification: backpayment of missing bonuses is not required for this market to resolve YES, only the resumption of new bonuses."}, {"id": "yLhfjWY9DXbNwfds7QvG", "creatorId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "creatorUsername": "HenriThunberg", "creatorName": "Henri Thunberg", "createdTime": 1713217709529, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenriThunberg%2FC4rMRuElGd.jpeg?alt=media&token=c119866f-2a78-4b4d-8fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b", "closeTime": 1715219343481, "question": "Will Reka be top 10 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard any time in 2024?", "slug": "will-reka-ever-be-top-10-on-the-cha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-reka-ever-be-top-10-on-the-cha", "pool": {"NO": 3420.8608430118857, "YES": 47.90997006425914}, "probability": 0.9871386250506936, "p": 0.518056636680273, "totalLiquidity": 380, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3533.277452441523, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715219343481, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715219343481, "lastBetTime": 1715219337485, "lastCommentTime": 1715215358244, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reka ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "introduced a new multimodal language model", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reka.ai/news/reka-core-our-frontier-class-multimodal-language-model", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " today on April 15th, with self-stated competitive capabilities.  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1779894622334189592"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will count top 10 by ELO and position on the board, not the numbers attached to rankings in case of ties.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves early YES if they're listed top 10, and NO at EOY if they're not.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["chatbot-arena-leaderboard", "llms", "reka-ai", "ai"], "textDescription": "Reka introduced a new multimodal language model today on April 15th, with self-stated competitive capabilities.  \n\n[tweet]I will count top 10 by ELO and position on the board, not the numbers attached to rankings in case of ties.\n\nResolves early YES if they're listed top 10, and NO at EOY if they're not."}, {"id": "QXr1N7Jh8Qh7UAHENfhB", "creatorId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "creatorUsername": "SteveSokolowski", "creatorName": "Steve Sokolowski", "createdTime": 1697539429377, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Israel retain public support among Americans until end of 2023?", "slug": "will-israel-retain-public-support-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-israel-retain-public-support-a", "pool": {"NO": 1715.0130880721108, "YES": 526.1676905577614}, "probability": 0.9132751491580547, "p": 0.7636400536336828, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2787.453074463529, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705326474386, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "resolverId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 42, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705326545204, "lastBetTime": 1702458141326, "lastCommentTime": 1705326544437, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A recent poll (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/cnn-poll-israel-hamas-war-americans/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/cnn-poll-israel-hamas-war-americans/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") shows that more Americans ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "have sympathy towards Israelis than towards Palestinians.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "7b6292ed-3a4e-4ec5-955a-0a38bbe74ed7", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/cnn-poll-israel-hamas-war-americans/index.html", "image": "https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/231014184100-03-gaza-israel-101423.jpg?c=16x9&q=w_800,c_fill", "title": "CNN Poll: Americans are deeply sympathetic toward Israelis and see their military response to Hamas attacks as justified | CNN Politics", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "The American public expresses deep sympathy for the Israeli people and broadly sees the Israeli government\u2019s military response to Hamas\u2019 attacks as justified, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, and two-thirds are at least somewhat worried the fighting between Israel and Hamas could lead to terrorism in the US.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since the poll was taken, however, 70 Palestinian refugees were killed in a rocket attack as they fled southward to escape the war, and Israel is likely to invade Gaza and cause high numbers of civilian casualties.  Similar wars of occupation, like the 2003 Iraq War, have had initial extreme levels of support that quickly turn to a majority of opposition once civilian deaths and the inevitable insurgencies begin.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if the average of credible mainstream media polls of Americans over the conflict released during the week of December 18-31, 2023 show that a plurality of Americans have sympathy for or support Israel's actions in the war.  It resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if the average of polls released during that week reveal that Israel has lost support and residents of Gaza have gained a plurality of respondents' sympathy.  If the poll(s) are opinion polls asking about the two groups of people separately, then the one with the higher sum of \"somewhat favorable\" and \"very favorable\" be selected.  It resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if no polling on the topic is released during the last two weeks of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Polls that ask about whether Americans are sympathetic towards Hamas will be discarded; they must ask whether Americans are sympathetic towards the Palestinean people or the caretaker government Israel installs.  In any given poll to be considered, there must be options for the respondant to select Israel, Gaza/Palestine, or (optionally) to abstain from answering the questions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION:  ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "There were not many polls during the last two weeks of 2023.  However, a very prominent poll in the New York Times clearly showed a strong plurality of respondents favoring Israel:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Therefore, the question resolves to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israeli-politics", "wars", "politics-default", "polls", "us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "A recent poll (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/politics/cnn-poll-israel-hamas-war-americans/index.html) shows that more Americans \n\nhave sympathy towards Israelis than towards Palestinians.\n\n[link preview]Since the poll was taken, however, 70 Palestinian refugees were killed in a rocket attack as they fled southward to escape the war, and Israel is likely to invade Gaza and cause high numbers of civilian casualties.  Similar wars of occupation, like the 2003 Iraq War, have had initial extreme levels of support that quickly turn to a majority of opposition once civilian deaths and the inevitable insurgencies begin.\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if the average of credible mainstream media polls of Americans over the conflict released during the week of December 18-31, 2023 show that a plurality of Americans have sympathy for or support Israel's actions in the war.  It resolves to NO if the average of polls released during that week reveal that Israel has lost support and residents of Gaza have gained a plurality of respondents' sympathy.  If the poll(s) are opinion polls asking about the two groups of people separately, then the one with the higher sum of \"somewhat favorable\" and \"very favorable\" be selected.  It resolves N/A if no polling on the topic is released during the last two weeks of the year.\n\nPolls that ask about whether Americans are sympathetic towards Hamas will be discarded; they must ask whether Americans are sympathetic towards the Palestinean people or the caretaker government Israel installs.  In any given poll to be considered, there must be options for the respondant to select Israel, Gaza/Palestine, or (optionally) to abstain from answering the questions.\n\nRESOLUTION:  There were not many polls during the last two weeks of 2023.  However, a very prominent poll in the New York Times clearly showed a strong plurality of respondents favoring Israel:\n\nhttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/biden-israel-gaza-poll.html\n\nTherefore, the question resolves to YES."}, {"id": "xIuh3J8RxFrb6zole9PC", "creatorId": "ubDKHRj6aqWFPjCP9EYh8vTw37v1", "creatorUsername": "d", "creatorName": "Vo", "createdTime": 1686973367581, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fd%2FrHmMErOXsG.jpeg?alt=media&token=8b20d855-5215-43ac-843d-90b00ec2c4ff", "closeTime": 1712652545974, "question": "Will the U.S. [real] GDP growth rate exceed 3% in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-gdp-growth-rate-exceed", "url": "https://manifold.markets/d/will-the-us-gdp-growth-rate-exceed", "pool": {"NO": 233.8833231226963, "YES": 18945.611547389235}, "probability": 0.007523967656214731, "p": 0.38045816161189205, "totalLiquidity": 1355, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 40940.07528515267, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1712652545974, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 105, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713190998512, "lastBetTime": 1710845476567, "lastCommentTime": 1713190997997, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the [real] U.S. GDP growth rate for the year 2023 exceeds 3% according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data can be verified from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' official website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bea.gov/", "class": null, "target": "_new"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As the link above suggests: this is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "real", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " GDP.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "Resolution Criteria: The market resolves to YES if the [real] U.S. GDP growth rate for the year 2023 exceeds 3% according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The data can be verified from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' official website. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.\n\nAs the link above suggests: this is real GDP."}, {"id": "2wzFPJzSHYnAWFIAqPCj", "creatorId": "E8t1EFK1aGREGgNQWKax50NkZbw1", "creatorUsername": "AdamTreat", "creatorName": "Adam Treat", "createdTime": 1691499163643, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtec_Yedr89qf7dlY4mPLkMCCm-3unk6X9hJh-qK6dCoCUo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693627140000, "question": "Will John Eastman be indicted by Jack Smith by September 1st?", "slug": "will-john-eastman-be-indicted-by-ja", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/will-john-eastman-be-indicted-by-ja", "pool": {"NO": 82.47304236895889, "YES": 1052.819298909448}, "probability": 0.024965688749486226, "p": 0.24634256649610467, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2758.1383035010635, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693638931955, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693550265048, "lastBetTime": 1693550264872, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23901160/sbc-23-o-30029-respondents-motion-for-abatement-of-state-bar-disciplinary-proceeding-declaration-of-zachary-mayer.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23901160/sbc-23-o-30029-respondents-motion-for-abatement-of-state-bar-disciplinary-proceeding-declaration-of-zachary-mayer.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "He's facing disciplinary proceeding where he indicated he fears he will be indicted. Speculation has also spread that he is one of the unindicted co-conspirators in Trump's case.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to YES if he is indicted by a grand jury headed up by Jack Smith as of September 1st. Will resolve to NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "crime"], "textDescription": "https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23901160/sbc-23-o-30029-respondents-motion-for-abatement-of-state-bar-disciplinary-proceeding-declaration-of-zachary-mayer.pdf\n\nHe's facing disciplinary proceeding where he indicated he fears he will be indicted. Speculation has also spread that he is one of the unindicted co-conspirators in Trump's case.\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if he is indicted by a grand jury headed up by Jack Smith as of September 1st. Will resolve to NO if not."}, {"id": "GHsHYSm3VO56WkKXJYSl", "creatorId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "creatorUsername": "PlasmaBallin", "creatorName": "Plasma Ballin'", "createdTime": 1688225896580, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlasmaBallin%2FYrJAoOelNo.webp?alt=media&token=f4264f7d-f428-4baf-a942-444e233b50a5", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will Manifold allow creators to keep their unique trader bonuses if their market resolves N/A in 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-allow-creators-to-kee", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-manifold-allow-creators-to-kee", "pool": {"NO": 119.02406905224187, "YES": 1515.2911256203258}, "probability": 0.01848059019111959, "p": 0.19335689258565691, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2550.843228950432, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704144819049, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704144819444, "lastBetTime": 1704083406626, "lastCommentTime": 1703319376381, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "When a market resolves N/A, Manifold basically treats it as if the market never existed: Profits and losses are removed from the accounts of people who made them, all the mana spent on shares and subsidies is returned, and the creator gets back the 50 mana required to make the market but loses all the unique trader bonuses. However, the unique trader bonuses are not really part of the market itself - they are more of a meta aspect - so it would be possible to have markets resolve N/A while still allowing creators to keep the bonuses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the one hand, removing the bonuses is useful because it discourages N/A resolutions in cases where they are unnecessary and encourages creators to make the resolution criteria clear, since they wouldn't want to have to resolve a market N/A due to unclear criteria. On the other hand, it also discourages creators from resolving to N/A when that really should be the resolution, if they got a bunch of unique traders. For example, creators may decide a definite resolution despite a very ambiguous situation that is not covered at all by the resolution criteria, or they may resolve to PROB instead of N/A. It also discourages creators from making conditional markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At any point in 2023, will Manifold change the way UTBs are returned after an N/A resolution? It still counts even if they reverse the new rule, or if the creator only gets to keep some of the unique trader bonuses (e.g., N/A causes the creator to lose half of the mana they got in UTBs).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbmQ1Bti5Yy.png?alt=media&token=37a180b8-95cd-4cf7-ac04-fae614f27229", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "When a market resolves N/A, Manifold basically treats it as if the market never existed: Profits and losses are removed from the accounts of people who made them, all the mana spent on shares and subsidies is returned, and the creator gets back the 50 mana required to make the market but loses all the unique trader bonuses. However, the unique trader bonuses are not really part of the market itself - they are more of a meta aspect - so it would be possible to have markets resolve N/A while still allowing creators to keep the bonuses.\n\nOn the one hand, removing the bonuses is useful because it discourages N/A resolutions in cases where they are unnecessary and encourages creators to make the resolution criteria clear, since they wouldn't want to have to resolve a market N/A due to unclear criteria. On the other hand, it also discourages creators from resolving to N/A when that really should be the resolution, if they got a bunch of unique traders. For example, creators may decide a definite resolution despite a very ambiguous situation that is not covered at all by the resolution criteria, or they may resolve to PROB instead of N/A. It also discourages creators from making conditional markets.\n\nAt any point in 2023, will Manifold change the way UTBs are returned after an N/A resolution? It still counts even if they reverse the new rule, or if the creator only gets to keep some of the unique trader bonuses (e.g., N/A causes the creator to lose half of the mana they got in UTBs)."}, {"id": "vqRECfBOCwbgHSgH3F3K", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710994544459, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1716674007785, "question": "Will winner of the Palm Dog at the Cannes Film Festival also win the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, OR Cam\u00e9ra d'Or?", "slug": "will-winner-of-the-palm-dog-at-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-winner-of-the-palm-dog-at-the", "pool": {"NO": 14.942392820832197, "YES": 1425.500596471149}, "probability": 0.009999999999999948, "p": 0.49074009581468964, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1329.3656255841788, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716674007785, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716674007785, "lastBetTime": 1716674000557, "lastCommentTime": 1716673996720, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cannes Film Festival", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the most prestigious in the world, with several famous awards at stake, including: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Palme d'Or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Best film (the festival's highest honor).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Grand Prix", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Prix_(Cannes_Film_Festival)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Second place.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cam\u00e9ra d'Or", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cam%C3%A9ra_d%27Or", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ": Best debut feature", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Film critics also award an even higher honor, the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "PALM DOG", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palm_Dog_Award", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", for the film with the best ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "canine performance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the festival.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the film that wins the 2024 Palm dog ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "also", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " wins any of the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, or Cam\u00e9ra d'Or. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"Anatomy of a Fall\" won the Palm Dog (for the performance of Messi), and it also won the Palme d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"War Pony\" won the Palm Dog, and it also won the Cam\u00e9ra d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2021", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Cannes_Film_Festival", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", \"The Souvenir Part II\" won the Palm Dog, and it did not win any of the three awards, so this would have resolved NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "animal-welfare", "culture-default", "entertainment", "movies"], "textDescription": "The Cannes Film Festival is the most prestigious in the world, with several famous awards at stake, including: \n\nPalme d'Or: Best film (the festival's highest honor).\n\nGrand Prix: Second place.\n\nCam\u00e9ra d'Or: Best debut feature\n\nFilm critics also award an even higher honor, the PALM DOG, for the film with the best canine performance at the festival.\n\nThis market resolves YES if the film that wins the 2024 Palm dog also wins any of the Palme d'Or, Grand Prix, or Cam\u00e9ra d'Or. \n\nExamples:\n\nIn 2023, \"Anatomy of a Fall\" won the Palm Dog (for the performance of Messi), and it also won the Palme d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.\n\nIn 2022, \"War Pony\" won the Palm Dog, and it also won the Cam\u00e9ra d'Or, so this would have resolved YES.\n\nIn 2021, \"The Souvenir Part II\" won the Palm Dog, and it did not win any of the three awards, so this would have resolved NO. \n\n"}, {"id": "yqnpWpJnalyLDw96puCK", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1695640594486, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695720600000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on September 26 than it closed on September 25?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-b7c0e0e433a6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-b7c0e0e433a6", "pool": {"NO": 157.61468797060323, "YES": 155.4745091029466}, "probability": 0.48999999999999994, "p": 0.4865839920677819, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 190.76932152039709, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695723128163, "resolutionProbability": 0.49, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462523350, "lastBetTime": 1695718960355, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "BsQTjYAYVF3EOgYPHjdO", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1665759877882, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1677646740000, "question": "Will Jeremy Hunt be replaced as UK finance minister by February 2023?", "slug": "will-jeremy-hunt-be-replaced-as-uk", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-jeremy-hunt-be-replaced-as-uk", "pool": {"NO": 127.07605064074383, "YES": 3387.4591620153506}, "probability": 0.014315817156466662, "p": 0.2791018084669504, "totalLiquidity": 360, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3647.286541050226, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1677648989287, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1677632157393, "lastBetTime": 1677632157242, "lastCommentTime": 1666709425352, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Jeremy Hunt is replaced as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UK Chancellor of the Exchequer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_of_the_Exchequer", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (i.e. finance minister) by end of February 2023, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background (emphasis added):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has fired finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and ditched a big part of her discredited economic strategy in a desperate bid to rescue her month-old premiership.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Truss appointed former foreign minister Jeremy Hunt as Kwarteng\u2019s replacement. He\u2019ll be Britain\u2019s ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "fourth finance minister in just over three months", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/14/economy/uk-tax-cuts-liz-truss-reversal/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/14/economy/uk-tax-cuts-liz-truss-reversal/index.html", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Jeremy Hunt is replaced as UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (i.e. finance minister) by end of February 2023, otherwise NO.\n\nBackground (emphasis added):\n\nUK Prime Minister Liz Truss has fired finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and ditched a big part of her discredited economic strategy in a desperate bid to rescue her month-old premiership.\n\nTruss appointed former foreign minister Jeremy Hunt as Kwarteng\u2019s replacement. He\u2019ll be Britain\u2019s fourth finance minister in just over three months.\n\nhttps://www.cnn.com/2022/10/14/economy/uk-tax-cuts-liz-truss-reversal/index.html"}, {"id": "AaK1YWwr5RmFS7LnUHuB", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1693274025246, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1693332000000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on August 29 than it did on August 28?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-54fe3359aaac", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august-54fe3359aaac", "pool": {"NO": 996.6592555929858, "YES": 143.48277434191678}, "probability": 0.946130761167837, "p": 0.716593652975586, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1139.9032145146089, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693340143397, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693340139107, "lastBetTime": 1693328969793, "lastCommentTime": 1693340137778, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Q3 2023 (July/August/September)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st place - \u1e403,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd place - \u1e402,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3rd place - \u1e401,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th place = \u1e40500", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5th place - \u1e40250", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 leaderboard.\n\n\n\nQ3 2023 (July/August/September)\n\nPrizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:\n\n1st place - \u1e403,000\n\n2nd place - \u1e402,000\n\n3rd place - \u1e401,000\n\n4th place = \u1e40500\n\n5th place - \u1e40250\n\n@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market."}, {"id": "uGYy3jdI0NtJ90SeBqH5", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1714455599637, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1714531467525, "question": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?", "slug": "will-student-protestors-of-columbia", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia", "pool": {"NO": 54.331479933899836, "YES": 2656.5596270196634}, "probability": 0.013222852021086223, "p": 0.39584351206518115, "totalLiquidity": 480, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3855.3426109061597, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714531467525, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714531467525, "lastBetTime": 1714529645311, "lastCommentTime": 1714528612742, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves To What The Status Of The Building Is Per Social Media And/Or News Reports At 1am ET May 1st 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = Occupied by Student Protesters = YES", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = No Longer Occupied by Student Protestors = NO", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Status = Mixed Reporting = 50% Resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1785171296403259586"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Longer Market: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia-7bcaa0278b21", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I Do Not Participate In My Own Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "protest-477e21b09291", "israel", "palestine"], "textDescription": "Will Student Protestors Of Columbia University Have Control Of Hamilton Hall Still After 24 Hours Per Media Reports?\n\nResolves To What The Status Of The Building Is Per Social Media And/Or News Reports At 1am ET May 1st 2024.\n\nStatus = Occupied by Student Protesters = YES\nStatus = No Longer Occupied by Student Protestors = NO\nStatus = Mixed Reporting = 50% Resolution\n\n[tweet]\nLonger Market: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-student-protestors-of-columbia-7bcaa0278b21)I Do Not Participate In My Own Markets"}, {"id": "kVTLY815F3k9XR56q7I9", "creatorId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "creatorUsername": "GoncaloM", "creatorName": "Gon\u00e7alo M", "createdTime": 1694446842738, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694810278468, "question": "Will NVIDIA\u2019s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $460 per share on September 15, 2023?", "slug": "will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-962298febb84", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-962298febb84", "pool": {"NO": 125.98216691090705, "YES": 2046.6883779505263}, "probability": 0.020005174741146596, "p": 0.2490438383603869, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3831.2846441830507, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694810278468, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222354139, "lastBetTime": 1694799071916, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Another weekly prediction for NVDA.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 15 of September, 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "tech-stocks", "wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "Another weekly prediction for NVDA.\nWill resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $460 USD on the closing price of 15 of September, 2023. Any moves above $460 USD during the week will not count towards this market.\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ"}, {"id": "rwb8spHLhFTFd9GtmEza", "creatorId": "yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2", "creatorUsername": "Balasar", "creatorName": "Balasar", "createdTime": 1716597066618, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBalasar%2FuZMYM18qZz.png?alt=media&token=ecd69cd7-3892-4b90-8591-884055b52182", "closeTime": 1717109752668, "question": "Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st?", "slug": "will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Balasar/will-the-us-remove-its-restrictions", "pool": {"NO": 4950.940510578331, "YES": 201.9818250418025}, "probability": 0.9608024705426704, "p": 0.500000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9456.231621558924, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717109752668, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "yv3waCUZ4GWBrDznjtSkIF7QL1k2", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717196569332, "lastBetTime": 1717104367624, "lastCommentTime": 1717196568144, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given the sensitivity of making this policy change explicit, the question will resolve YES if it is \"de facto\" the case that US weapons are being used to target Russian facilities inside of Russia, and US officials aren't particularly upset about it. Resolves NO if this isn't happening by the deadline, or if there is not strong evidence of such a policy change. Resolves YES immediately if the policy change is made explicit (e.g. Biden/Blinken saying something to this effect). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Balasar/b53a98239f02.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["wars", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia"], "textDescription": "Given the sensitivity of making this policy change explicit, the question will resolve YES if it is \"de facto\" the case that US weapons are being used to target Russian facilities inside of Russia, and US officials aren't particularly upset about it. Resolves NO if this isn't happening by the deadline, or if there is not strong evidence of such a policy change. Resolves YES immediately if the policy change is made explicit (e.g. Biden/Blinken saying something to this effect). "}, {"id": "fqPcpz6cPQzINWDfmy6E", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1687309138476, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1704108342668, "question": "Will Metroid Prime 4 release before 2024?", "slug": "will-metroid-prime-4-release-before-721f0366ae7b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-metroid-prime-4-release-before-721f0366ae7b", "pool": {"NO": 20.118293861414713, "YES": 64930}, "probability": 9.452927147157431e-05, "p": 0.23378319706022088, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 64780, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704108342668, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704108343487, "lastBetTime": 1704108338649, "lastCommentTime": 1703592311958, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metroid_Prime_4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metroid_Prime_4", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "metroid", "nintendo"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metroid_Prime_4"}, {"id": "UNDAThL89TBY3UYmPWY7", "creatorId": "AyC0a1sRigfUnv8NdQHKkXRtW342", "creatorUsername": "Sjlver", "creatorName": "Sjlver", "createdTime": 1649056780163, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi6V5FXup7vrjjVcQBECXiU8NTyP18097X3UYgZ4Mo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1652601600000, "question": "Will the majority of Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act?", "slug": "will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Sjlver/will-the-majority-of-swiss-voters-a", "pool": {"NO": 183.2000719895631, "YES": 75.05026087922008}, "probability": 0.8201126388394999, "p": 0.6512844630551134, "totalLiquidity": 101.22291484717432, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 86, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1652630213036, "resolutionProbability": 0.8201126388394999, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1652478257715, "lastBetTime": 1652478256423, "lastCommentTime": 1652411185629, "description": "On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Transplantation Act.\n\nOver the past five years, an average of around 450 people in Switzerland have received one or more organs from a deceased person each year. However, the need for organs is much greater. Today, a transplant is only possible if the deceased person has consented to the donation during his or her lifetime (consent solution). However, the wish of the person concerned is often unknown. It is then up to the relatives to decide. In the majority of cases, they are against organ donation.\n\nThe Federal Council and Parliament want to increase patients' chances of receiving an organ. They are therefore seeking to change the rules regarding organ donation: Anyone who does not wish to donate their organs must state this during their lifetime (contradiction solution).\n\nIf a person has not objected, it is assumed that they are willing to donate their organs. The relatives are involved regardless. They can refuse organ donation if they know or suspect that the person concerned would have chosen not to do so. If no relatives can be contacted, no organs may be removed. The amended Transplantation Act is a counter-proposal to the popular initiative 'Encourage organ donation - save lives'. This also calls for a move to the contradiction solution, but does not regulate the role of the relatives.\n\nIt was withdrawn on condition that the amended Transplantation Act comes into force. Because a referendum has been sought against the law, it will be put to the vote.\n\nhttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220515/transplantation-act.html\n\nThis will resolve YES if the majority of the Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act. No majority of states is needed for the act to pass (since it's not a change to the constitution).", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "On the 15 Mai 2022 the Swiss electorate will vote on the Transplantation Act.\n\nOver the past five years, an average of around 450 people in Switzerland have received one or more organs from a deceased person each year. However, the need for organs is much greater. Today, a transplant is only possible if the deceased person has consented to the donation during his or her lifetime (consent solution). However, the wish of the person concerned is often unknown. It is then up to the relatives to decide. In the majority of cases, they are against organ donation.\n\nThe Federal Council and Parliament want to increase patients' chances of receiving an organ. They are therefore seeking to change the rules regarding organ donation: Anyone who does not wish to donate their organs must state this during their lifetime (contradiction solution).\n\nIf a person has not objected, it is assumed that they are willing to donate their organs. The relatives are involved regardless. They can refuse organ donation if they know or suspect that the person concerned would have chosen not to do so. If no relatives can be contacted, no organs may be removed. The amended Transplantation Act is a counter-proposal to the popular initiative 'Encourage organ donation - save lives'. This also calls for a move to the contradiction solution, but does not regulate the role of the relatives.\n\nIt was withdrawn on condition that the amended Transplantation Act comes into force. Because a referendum has been sought against the law, it will be put to the vote.\n\nhttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20220515/transplantation-act.html\n\nThis will resolve YES if the majority of the Swiss voters accept the Transplantation Act. No majority of states is needed for the act to pass (since it's not a change to the constitution)."}, {"id": "TiEqUCS8K3QqwwbfAXqc", "creatorId": "cpb5lKFeEofRCpEFxBzZW4oC0SF3", "creatorUsername": "kinabets", "creatorName": "kina", "createdTime": 1698761763512, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkinabets%2FXO27Gpp-pz.jpeg?alt=media&token=99df33c2-397a-4e16-8067-7a67007f4b14", "closeTime": 1699210937525, "question": "Will Sergio Perez finish in the points at the Brazil GP 2023?", "slug": "will-sergio-perez-finish-in-the-poi-4647aeeac6e1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kinabets/will-sergio-perez-finish-in-the-poi-4647aeeac6e1", "pool": {"NO": 609.3795294117102, "YES": 83.12839313049238}, "probability": 0.9574676110796874, "p": 0.7543541446224054, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 756.2321578505788, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699210941635, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699210508966, "lastBetTime": 1699210508841, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1", "motorsports"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "fQDzECwTNjhZQDdkJ9Zd", "creatorId": "PDt0ZBUmBCfpnynOmre77KYqVim2", "creatorUsername": "lisamarsh", "creatorName": "Lisa Marsh", "createdTime": 1682260797824, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwalrus2357%2Fhummingbird-g5ba6efbf6_1920.jpg?alt=media&token=88bb172f-a612-4524-8baf-262c369f8514", "closeTime": 1683143520469, "question": "Will a party other than the Scottish National Party (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-a-part-other-than-the-scot", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-a-part-other-than-the-scot", "pool": {"NO": 470.5914633069214, "YES": 27.162724203639648}, "probability": 0.9721058581279131, "p": 0.6679445685341411, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 405, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683143520469, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683148348913, "lastBetTime": 1683142906487, "lastCommentTime": 1683148346455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Scottish National Party (SNP) has led every poll of Scotland for years, but has declined in the polls since the resignation of its leader Nicola Sturgeon. This market esolves to YES if a valid poll with any part other than the SNP leading is published and NO otherwise. The poll can be a general election (Westminster) voting intention poll, or a Scottish Parliament poll; for the latter, a lead in either the constituency vote or in the list vote would be sufficient.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A valid poll must:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2013 Be a poll of all of Scotland, not a regional poll", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2013 Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2013 Have a party other than the SNP leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2013 Be carried out entirely within 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2013 Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See here for past polls: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apr 23, 3:40pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the a part other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a party other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apr 23, 3:40pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a party other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a party other than the Scottish National Party (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FuutYvjqOLG.png?alt=media&token=5fb0c9a7-99c3-4cce-8ea6-c9d0d1a54b46", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "scotland"], "textDescription": "The Scottish National Party (SNP) has led every poll of Scotland for years, but has declined in the polls since the resignation of its leader Nicola Sturgeon. This market esolves to YES if a valid poll with any part other than the SNP leading is published and NO otherwise. The poll can be a general election (Westminster) voting intention poll, or a Scottish Parliament poll; for the latter, a lead in either the constituency vote or in the list vote would be sufficient.\n\nA valid poll must:\n\n\u2013 Be a poll of all of Scotland, not a regional poll\n\n\u2013 Be based on the current situation, not on some sort of hypothetical\n\n\u2013 Have a party other than the SNP leading, not tied, where this is based off the integer-valued percentages that are published\n\n\u2013 Be carried out entirely within 2023\n\n\u2013 Be conducted by a member of the British Polling Council\n\nSee here for past polls: \nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland\n\nApr 23, 3:40pm: Will the a part other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023? \u2192 Will a party other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?\n\nApr 23, 3:40pm: Will a party other than the Scottish National Part (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023? \u2192 Will a party other than the Scottish National Party (SNP) lead in a poll of Scotland in 2023?"}, {"id": "fEynd6HX5JURNRDwqO89", "creatorId": "HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3", "creatorUsername": "Odoacre", "creatorName": "Odoacre", "createdTime": 1672576247240, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOdoacre%2Fe8tDh301jg.avatar2?alt=media&token=79f05389-576e-437b-9be9-bda60b4cd21a", "closeTime": 1704027540000, "question": "Will the word \"stablecoin\" be added to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary in 2023", "slug": "will-the-word-stablecoin-be-added-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/will-the-word-stablecoin-be-added-t", "pool": {"NO": 184.93073739868078, "YES": 12374.658470896698}, "probability": 0.010477414557428687, "p": 0.4146983376543717, "totalLiquidity": 1090, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12878.16785536979, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704079205168, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "HSB5OZ8jBHQZZLjs9oWS7avZTqE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 63, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704079629206, "lastBetTime": 1704012774580, "lastCommentTime": 1704079628588, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stablecoin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stablecoin", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " currently says: The word you've entered isn't in the dictionary", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhajO3zmkkR.png?alt=media&token=183d6da2-52e0-4ffe-ad77-fd92e3eaede7", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stablecoins", "crypto-speculation", "linguistics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stablecoin currently says: The word you've entered isn't in the dictionary"}, {"id": "P8vGuehSuHcW3itU4Cv3", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1698506149104, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698610616637, "question": "Will the Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 8 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-washington-commanders-beat-36a270cbd404", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-washington-commanders-beat-36a270cbd404", "pool": {"NO": 67.10090508184112, "YES": 7558.44853872939}, "probability": 0.004186791059733321, "p": 0.32138778201428586, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10166.519568601892, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698610632196, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698610544732, "lastBetTime": 1698610544607, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Commanders win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Eagles win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "football", "washington-commanders", "sports-default", "philadelphia-eagles"], "textDescription": "Yes - Commanders win\n\nNo - Eagles win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "6W0arY2IrcZSB3gKA9DA", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703678608357, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703881500000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-29 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-15844719a644", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-15844719a644", "pool": {"NO": 66.26675159103678, "YES": 102.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.08130999915498023, "p": 0.11989812782260989, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 32, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703955963436, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703955963710, "lastBetTime": 1703878872456, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-29 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2023&month=12&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2023&month=12&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F95928a369d43.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-29 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-29 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "t9qwxiZjJQ4qu0R4UqMS", "creatorId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "creatorUsername": "Gabrielle", "creatorName": "Gabrielle", "createdTime": 1645992366072, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c", "closeTime": 1646456340000, "question": "Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in peace?", "slug": "will-the-current-russiaukraine-peac", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-the-current-russiaukraine-peac", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.012026475184395789, "p": 0.012026475184395789, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4227.066578361337, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1646487179079, "resolutionProbability": 0.012026475184395789, "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1645992366072, "lastCommentTime": 1646240979186, "description": "Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in ending the war? Resolves YES liberally - if the war has ended within five days after the peace talks end, with even some media recognition that the peace talks contributed to the war ending, then will resolve as YES.\n\nhttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/\n\nMar 2, 4:38pm: the talks ended on Feb 28, so will resolve on March 4\n\nClose date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm", "textDescription": "Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in ending the war? Resolves YES liberally - if the war has ended within five days after the peace talks end, with even some media recognition that the peace talks contributed to the war ending, then will resolve as YES.\n\nhttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/war-with-ukraine-putin-puts-nuclear-deterrence-forces-alert-2022-02-27/\n\nMar 2, 4:38pm: the talks ended on Feb 28, so will resolve on March 4\n\nClose date updated to 2022-03-04 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "e2ZtymazYAZeSAWxnaKl", "creatorId": "3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2", "creatorUsername": "MaxPayne", "creatorName": "Max Payne", "createdTime": 1687201013763, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/user-images/3DTGi3ih5xXnVOXEsKnABAeufui2.png", "closeTime": 1689803940000, "question": "Will the !forecasting community have 20 subscribers in a month?", "slug": "will-the-forecasting-community-have", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxPayne/will-the-forecasting-community-have", "pool": {"NO": 2456.444849236335, "YES": 79.43279736185136}, "probability": 0.9967479761150965, "p": 0.9083507138193304, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2342.363556349763, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689807399343, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689803093670, "lastBetTime": 1689803093526, "lastCommentTime": 1688545735923, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "People are looking for Reddit alternatives and the Fediverse welcomes them. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "!forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://discuss.tchncs.de/c/forecasting", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " there is one subforum, called \"community\" in the Lemmy software. Being federated, people can subscribe from other servers. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The subscriber count is visible in the sidebar. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["fediverse"], "textDescription": "People are looking for Reddit alternatives and the Fediverse welcomes them. !forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de there is one subforum, called \"community\" in the Lemmy software. Being federated, people can subscribe from other servers. \n\nThe subscriber count is visible in the sidebar. "}, {"id": "twD8fcFvUeNMsGXchwJr", "creatorId": "stNuIBu29JSLADbfvFlMfnu7u9T2", "creatorUsername": "Capresis", "creatorName": "Capresis", "createdTime": 1695679090752, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FToddBrockman%2FCc-uJfBIMW.png?alt=media&token=4c96dbf9-08b1-4259-b682-4dd26a302b37", "closeTime": 1696316340000, "question": "Will Manifold complete this jigsaw puzzle?", "slug": "will-manifold-complete-this-jigsaw", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Capresis/will-manifold-complete-this-jigsaw", "pool": {"NO": 6336.631010871222, "YES": 255.31083602324694}, "probability": 0.9885694124041905, "p": 0.7770132799355878, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9888.756083771563, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696317952770, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696318415205, "lastBetTime": 1696315428103, "lastCommentTime": 1696318414540, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2000 pieces, image preview disabled and randomly rotated pieces on.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://puzzle.aggie.io/t6ledf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://puzzle.aggie.io/t6ledf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the linked puzzle is fully solved before the market close date.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["fun", "puzzles", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "2000 pieces, image preview disabled and randomly rotated pieces on.\n\n\nhttps://puzzle.aggie.io/t6ledf\n\nResolves YES if the linked puzzle is fully solved before the market close date."}, {"id": "4enodztmcDf91i8OYqYw", "creatorId": "SXkPkdIew6WpUSIWhkwpvM7w0b62", "creatorUsername": "LightningBee", "creatorName": "Lightning Bee \u26a1 \ud83d\udc1d", "createdTime": 1692620200606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLightningBee%2F8SfMbbOv8w.jpg?alt=media&token=2e98dae2-0d31-4db9-8428-12a5273b4519", "closeTime": 1704002340000, "question": "Will Umbrel hit 5,500\u2b50 stars on Github in 2023?", "slug": "will-umbrel-hit-5500-stars-on-githu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-umbrel-hit-5500-stars-on-githu", "pool": {"NO": 57.55119858637749, "YES": 1872.9007629699213}, "probability": 0.012183380114464432, "p": 0.2864158529467501, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2294.00079383406, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704146344686, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710223225472, "lastBetTime": 1703999045562, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Umbrel is a beautiful personal server OS that makes self-hosting accessible for everyone and lets users run their own Bitcoin and Lightning Network nodes using very simple and easy-to-get hardware.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will it hit 5,500 stars on Github in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://github.com/getumbrel/umbrel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/getumbrel/umbrel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://star-history.com/#getumbrel/umbrel&Date", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://star-history.com/#getumbrel/umbrel&Date", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJDzcRYBrw0.png?alt=media&token=6df17e7a-477b-4888-a29d-607787f996ea", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "internet", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "social-media", "github", "open-source", "lightning-network"], "textDescription": "Umbrel is a beautiful personal server OS that makes self-hosting accessible for everyone and lets users run their own Bitcoin and Lightning Network nodes using very simple and easy-to-get hardware.\n\nWill it hit 5,500 stars on Github in 2023?\n\nhttps://github.com/getumbrel/umbrel\nhttps://star-history.com/#getumbrel/umbrel&Date\n\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "h1BCPj0hgxbQm88WDcNz", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702995400222, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703012400000, "question": "[Daily] Will MSFT close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "daily-will-msft-close-higher-on-dec", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/daily-will-msft-close-higher-on-dec", "pool": {"NO": 197.38480204671168, "YES": 351.92634556438236}, "probability": 0.24501252843460178, "p": 0.36653167977713275, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 283.8320684417215, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703020299352, "resolutionProbability": 0.25, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703020283203, "lastBetTime": 1703009296129, "lastCommentTime": 1703020282016, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fe258e74cc702.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "3Ofiku8I4I2SCRGyNSgp", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699386575395, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699657200000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on November 10 than it closed on November 9?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-november-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-november-1", "pool": {"NO": 860.1718675336473, "YES": 83.1203735259776}, "probability": 0.9632837821952678, "p": 0.7171335322465413, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 747.8196112658528, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699662905673, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699664252940, "lastBetTime": 1699656050207, "lastCommentTime": 1699664252280, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Yahoo Finance ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " page (not the chart):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "5.0874", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "454ded6b-5652-45ba-9fa1-81a51a578260", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/", "image": "https://s.yimg.com/cv/apiv2/social/images/yahoo_default_logo.png", "title": "Polkadot USD (DOT-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill DOT close higher on November 6 than it closed on November 5?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5a59a15eb-7184-4fa0-a9a3-9c7a048ee0f5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Discover historical prices of Polkadot USD (DOT-USD) on Yahoo Finance. View daily, weekly or monthly formats.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "economics-default", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Yahoo Finance Historical Data page (not the chart):\n\nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/\n\nPrevious Close: $5.0874\n\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "ijGaL3XxlEyvfZkC0Ajs", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690992369920, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691103600000, "question": "Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher August 3rd Than August 2nd? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-23f432b2170e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-23f432b2170e", "pool": {"NO": 152.31897007608362, "YES": 1106.1804018639548}, "probability": 0.046998580621867785, "p": 0.2637035009626227, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1231.5508526211001, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691108160099, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691108152371, "lastBetTime": 1691101713544, "lastCommentTime": 1691108150052, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 2nd Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfuaP18U7RC.png?alt=media&token=04209bd8-ee95-437c-8f67-4cacc77b0adf", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation", "finance"], "textDescription": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 2nd Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "VCvFen1iQmvsLTmcVBuK", "creatorId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "creatorUsername": "cash", "creatorName": "cshunter", "createdTime": 1699590496223, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fconnorcash%2F1AwgT_fRqZ.jpg?alt=media&token=a534da3f-a624-4ba5-a8e4-4df3e286b14e", "closeTime": 1713976050499, "question": "Will global approval of Russia decline in 2023, according to Gallup?", "slug": "will-global-approval-of-russia-decl", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-global-approval-of-russia-decl", "pool": {"NO": 140.72408446972975, "YES": 5303.962502643013}, "probability": 0.02848534209324992, "p": 0.5249646295135524, "totalLiquidity": 1030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8302.904973783558, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713976050499, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 63, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713982724852, "lastBetTime": 1713973839069, "lastCommentTime": 1713982724278, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gallup polls residents from countries around the world their opinion of the Russia's leadership, releasing a report around April in the following year. The Rating World Leaders report published in Apr 2023 can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gallup.com/analytics/474539/gallup-rating-world-leaders-report.aspx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1x8vGebF-e.png?alt=media&token=a5c50862-5d2c-4f58-a516-ab24581b36f0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Gallup's next Rating World Leaders report show a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in global approval of Russia (20% or lower) for 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "BeizbEzfzZ4gjIUuZfhK,Lnc9YXYGHdBAha8FQ516,vt0DPkPMW4hzMBtHWHbj"}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["public-opinion", "world-default", "politics-default", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "europe", "asia", "vladimir-putin"], "textDescription": "Gallup polls residents from countries around the world their opinion of the Russia's leadership, releasing a report around April in the following year. The Rating World Leaders report published in Apr 2023 can be found here.\n\n[image]Will Gallup's next Rating World Leaders report show a decline in global approval of Russia (20% or lower) for 2023?\n\nRelated questions:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "ri0wGiX7elPUYFLaqvkF", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1683244888883, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1683423693755, "question": "Biden vs Trump (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of \u1e4010k per)", "slug": "biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-limit-o-5c4c3d73dfce", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-limit-o-5c4c3d73dfce", "pool": {"NO": 10950.17719792838, "YES": 16.746829420604627}, "probability": 0.9992308677854974, "p": 0.6652048707189648, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11136.30600005005, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683423693755, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683423689569, "lastBetTime": 1683423689464, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Biden ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = Trump ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "resolve the market against them", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes on 5/6/23 9 A.M. PST", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F_BmVyD8tJu.png?alt=media&token=54832516-08ff-418b-a5eb-8f963c5bc790", "groupSlugs": ["gambling", "whale-watching", "politics-default", "us-politics", "fun"], "textDescription": "Yes = Biden \n\nNo = Trump \n\nI will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.\n\nRules\n\nThe largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:\n\nPrevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.\n\nPrevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.\n\nMake the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.\n\nGive all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.\n\nIf someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.\n\nAfter the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.\n\nMarket closes on 5/6/23 9 A.M. PST"}, {"id": "MkBG4G0FfrHs5kLUMhOA", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1709224400133, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1709711940000, "question": "Will Trump lose to Haley in at least 2 states by Super Tuesday?", "slug": "will-trump-lose-to-haley-in-at-leas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-trump-lose-to-haley-in-at-leas", "pool": {"NO": 206.38835003140002, "YES": 3820.0097629105935}, "probability": 0.006812362373104584, "p": 0.11265218376371969, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5314.272822879033, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709734852162, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709734882965, "lastBetTime": 1709706124580, "lastCommentTime": 1709734882410, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins or ties Trump in delegates in at least 2 states' Republican primary or caucus held on or before Super Tuesday (March 5).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That is, Nikki Haley needs to win at least as many delegates as Donald Trump, in 2 state races.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Washington DC and territories such as American Samoa are not states and therefore do not count for this question. (Part of the reason for this is the RNC rules do appear to distinguish states and territories.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivation for this question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " says \"There\u2019s a Good Reason Haley\u2019s Still Running\" and \"The answer might be buried deep in the Republican convention rules.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rules don\u2019t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout \u2014 if any \u2014 at the convention. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Of course, winning at least five states will be hard, owing to her deep weakness with conservative Republicans.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/jack%2F7fcfa8971faa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["2024-primaries", "nikki-haley", "donald-trump", "2024-republican-primaries", "super-tuesday-122879789bf6"], "textDescription": "Resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins or ties Trump in delegates in at least 2 states' Republican primary or caucus held on or before Super Tuesday (March 5).\n\nThat is, Nikki Haley needs to win at least as many delegates as Donald Trump, in 2 state races.\n\nWashington DC and territories such as American Samoa are not states and therefore do not count for this question. (Part of the reason for this is the RNC rules do appear to distinguish states and territories.)\n\nMotivation for this question: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746 says \"There\u2019s a Good Reason Haley\u2019s Still Running\" and \"The answer might be buried deep in the Republican convention rules.\"\n\nThe rules don\u2019t simply give power to a candidate based on the number of delegates they possess. Candidates cannot have their names placed into nomination, and thereby get television airtime at the convention, unless they have a plurality of delegates in at least five states.\n\nThat threshold makes a big difference for Haley in terms of her clout \u2014 if any \u2014 at the convention. \n\nOf course, winning at least five states will be hard, owing to her deep weakness with conservative Republicans.\n\n"}, {"id": "jFu9JRQthYdLCzyGLRlW", "creatorId": "taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3", "creatorUsername": "Magyk", "creatorName": "Magyk", "createdTime": 1705856483955, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMagyk%2FaW2DLX32cE.jpg?alt=media&token=f9759bdb-2b9a-46ba-ba5b-6d5f49ebe543", "closeTime": 1709065747988, "question": "Will the Israeli municipal elections be delayed again?", "slug": "will-the-israeli-municipal-election", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Magyk/will-the-israeli-municipal-election", "pool": {"NO": 100.17073027949982, "YES": 3738.6986697442026}, "probability": 0.008040879333919126, "p": 0.23227196474520884, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3546.613736363598, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709065747988, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "taDKLmUlu7flqU5ogkAdP6UMVdE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709065748488, "lastBetTime": 1709061308294, "lastCommentTime": 1709026653727, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The municipal elections in Israel, which happen every 5 years, were supposed to happen on Tuesday, 2023.10.31, But were delayed because of the war to 2024.01.30, and than delayed again to 2024.02.27.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be another delay?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if there is an official announcement of a delay before 2024.02.27", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves no if the elections happen on the planned date.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Magyk%2Fc931cbe4e5cf.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israeli-politics", "israeli-domestic-politics", "israel"], "textDescription": "The municipal elections in Israel, which happen every 5 years, were supposed to happen on Tuesday, 2023.10.31, But were delayed because of the war to 2024.01.30, and than delayed again to 2024.02.27.\n\nWill there be another delay?\n\nResolves yes if there is an official announcement of a delay before 2024.02.27\n\nResolves no if the elections happen on the planned date."}, {"id": "jk7WH4lR53P2cSGeX9Q8", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1691746937482, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1714385020524, "question": "Premier League 2023/4 - Will Wolves be relegated?", "slug": "premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be", "pool": {"NO": 47.16840342290533, "YES": 2021.2985680489564}, "probability": 0.01034789268434344, "p": 0.3094270206478559, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2174.9662568911053, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714385020524, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714385020524, "lastBetTime": 1713727617745, "lastCommentTime": 1714385014232, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be relegated to the Championship.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Wolverhampton Wanderers finish in the bottom 3 and be relegated?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Relegation markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "SLY1badgHYVoNKxAYNy2", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-luton-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PZ81zmbEcY3WGVrYQrHP", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-sheffield"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jk7WH4lR53P2cSGeX9Q8", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Fj6KA3CWOBREBDrNUyIe", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-nottingha"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ujsar7Nztsj4o2cLyDoZ", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-everton-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bQurIKmGz9W65UoLQOol", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-bournemou"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gVTAoYS6Ln1Enu0IMdRD", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-burnley-b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "BSCUdXRCL6Rj4Bk7KyXW", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-fulham-be"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top 4 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zltFPRU32PVBbKugwQsy", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Y5Hh44c7OGIrLXLWQMb9", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "SfDxyn63wizMXMzz3dJC", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "raSlSrk2qGtXRPM4xdVK", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wdfY5I16nLyZ5DKxpFUU", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sKp57gtg5t4czh1PGftc", "label": "/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["premiere-league", "football", "premier-league-20232024", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "The 2023/4 season of the Premier league kicks off this weekend, starting with a Friday night game between newly promoted Burnley and champions Man City.\n\nEach team will play 38 games and the final fixtures of the season will be played on 19th May 2024.\n\nThe Bottom 3 teams in the table at the end of the season will be relegated to the Championship.\n\nWill Wolverhampton Wanderers finish in the bottom 3 and be relegated?\n\nRelegation markets:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-luton-be \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-sheffield \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-wolves-be \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-nottingha \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-everton-b \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-bournemou \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-burnley-b \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-fulham-be \n\nTop 4 markets:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-arsenal-f@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-liverpool \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-mancheste \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-newcastle \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-chelsea-f \n\n@/SimonGrayson/premier-league-20234-will-spurs-fin "}, {"id": "ECwJcgZPTvPhOvPSZlag", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1666963742225, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will Twitter's Daily Active Users growth rate be higher in 2023 than 2022?", "slug": "will-twitters-daily-active-users-gr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitters-daily-active-users-gr", "pool": {"NO": 505.9730783065995, "YES": 1423.8726640554364}, "probability": 0.1958342077204495, "p": 0.4066371511836877, "totalLiquidity": 820, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5600.1791838518275, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704660486609, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704660486891, "lastBetTime": 1703217831851, "lastCommentTime": 1704660475018, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Twitter's monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU) grows at a higher percentage rate in 2023 than in 2022. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More formally: if (DAU at end of 2023 / DAU at end of 2022) > (DAU at end of 2022 / DAU at end of 2021).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the event that Twitter stops reporting mDAU but does report some sufficiently similar metric, such as DAU, will resolve based on that if it still preserves the overall spirit of the question, which is measuring the growth rate of active users. If this is not possible, resolves N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for past data. Comparing growth from Q4 of one year to the next, mDAU grew at 13% in 2021 and 26% in 2020.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Post of related markets:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FBQKsAASxLK.png?alt=media&token=5f581aeb-f204-493b-baae-be793ac61733", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Twitter's monetizable Daily Active Users (mDAU) grows at a higher percentage rate in 2023 than in 2022. Otherwise NO.\n\nMore formally: if (DAU at end of 2023 / DAU at end of 2022) > (DAU at end of 2022 / DAU at end of 2021).\n\nIn the event that Twitter stops reporting mDAU but does report some sufficiently similar metric, such as DAU, will resolve based on that if it still preserves the overall spirit of the question, which is measuring the growth rate of active users. If this is not possible, resolves N/A.\n\nSee https://www.statista.com/statistics/970920/monetizable-daily-active-twitter-users-worldwide/ for past data. Comparing growth from Q4 of one year to the next, mDAU grew at 13% in 2021 and 26% in 2020.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-twitter-have-more-daily-active)\nPost of related markets:\nhttps://manifold.markets/post/evaluating-twitter-after-a-year-of"}, {"id": "ZjHaXHfMc9o0tV9ZImq6", "creatorId": "prSlKwvKkRfHCY43txO4pG1sFMT2", "creatorUsername": "XiJinping", "creatorName": "Helmsman", "createdTime": 1662662000973, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FXiJinping%2F01akvpvPh4.png?alt=media&token=2929a65d-849b-4731-9ab6-0b61f6494a4d", "closeTime": 1663587023183, "question": "Will Joe Biden attend the Queen's funeral?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XiJinping/will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu", "pool": {"NO": 2391.8442031130494, "YES": 419.3957409269335}, "probability": 0.9610087140530735, "p": 0.8120888141204784, "totalLiquidity": 711.6025059675117, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8440.721737528916, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1663587023183, "resolutionProbability": 0.9610087140530736, "uniqueBettorCount": 77, "lastUpdatedTime": 1663510338687, "lastBetTime": 1663510338510, "lastCommentTime": 1662767031494, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["royal-funeral"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral."}, {"id": "FvyKnLOl3WMFU62ff4Q1", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1693714398829, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1693771500000, "question": "Will TK flight 2596 from Istanbul to Gazipasa on 2023-09-04 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-tk-flight-2596-from-istanbul-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-tk-flight-2596-from-istanbul-t", "pool": {"NO": 137.74406410537105, "YES": 167.01205849385428}, "probability": 0.8700000000000008, "p": 0.8902822533285584, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 101.84861411617732, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693787239458, "resolutionProbability": 0.87, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693763345135, "lastBetTime": 1693763344087, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/3pxb9yz3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/3pxb9yz3", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/3pxb9yz3"}, {"id": "FIn564PqfOSG2cjEtePK", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700420712137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700957046347, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will #8 Alabama beat Auburn?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-alabama-beat-aubur", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-alabama-beat-aubur", "pool": {"NO": 12226.872723661263, "YES": 102.65083021474766}, "probability": 0.9971520425817265, "p": 0.7461613352850451, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17173.664028961946, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700957046347, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700957041267, "lastBetTime": 1700957040786, "lastCommentTime": 1700956806791, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Auburn, AL.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Line: Auburn +14.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Alabama 48", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Auburn 32, Tie 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Alabama 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Auburn 1, Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "sec"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Auburn, AL.\n\nLine: Auburn +14.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: Alabama 48, Auburn 32, Tie 1\n\nLast 5: Alabama 4, Auburn 1, Tie 0"}, {"id": "ZSKOA0U8bpK1bWYIvaLU", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1695242641632, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695597785913, "question": "Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-39c9e1a2df68", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-kansas-city-chiefs-beat-th-39c9e1a2df68", "pool": {"NO": 7626.6621838565925, "YES": 179.2340328963111}, "probability": 0.9969438990485013, "p": 0.8846112502579231, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11458.531907060107, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695597793504, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695595746490, "lastBetTime": 1695595746166, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Chiefs win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Bears win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "kansas-city-chiefs", "chicago-bears", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Chiefs win\n\nNo - Bears win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "pNmorSXdkUSyG4NYq2Oc", "creatorId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "creatorUsername": "Nat", "creatorName": "Nat", "createdTime": 1709383872124, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLQiPbh_DxrLlPxnGERX27JKVxmY1R7KNXsjag8WjbVIyY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711607814303, "question": "Will JAXA's SLIM lunar lander survive its second lunar night?", "slug": "will-jaxas-slim-lunar-lander-surviv", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Nat/will-jaxas-slim-lunar-lander-surviv", "pool": {"NO": 113.75469741599069, "YES": 423.6558888018626}, "probability": 0.15043318356092863, "p": 0.397395190677832, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 251.58546895343287, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711607814303, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "AeBvsJ1vhEQAWTZ3TvdZCtyAc7S2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711637653190, "lastBetTime": 1711585229214, "lastCommentTime": 1711637652658, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve YES if any signal is received from SLIM after its second lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no signal has been received before it enters its third lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related or relevant markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "8Yqibe8WuIFJNrgSzMkz", "label": "/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Mmef3Hyrrqu2cdA6fsce", "label": "/Nat/will-the-im1-odysseus-lunar-lander"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["moon", "moon-landers", "jaxa", "japan"], "textDescription": "Market will resolve YES if any signal is received from SLIM after its second lunar night\n\nResolves NO if no signal has been received before it enters its third lunar night\n\nRelated or relevant markets:\n\n@/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793 \n\n@/Nat/will-the-im1-odysseus-lunar-lander "}, {"id": "hb6pVUOjgD3HiTqVvr6N", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1698834860885, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1701000062288, "question": "Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?", "slug": "israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-3", "pool": {"NO": 16291.41622400693, "YES": 255.50142221871445}, "probability": 0.9882000584809356, "p": 0.567737207643019, "totalLiquidity": 2255, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 121741.11452164207, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701000062288, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 319, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700999982291, "lastBetTime": 1700999968802, "lastCommentTime": 1700999981560, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on the resolution date, for example, this market would resolve to \"Yes\" if the ceasefire continues for 48h).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As stated above \"The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.\" and that will form the primary basis for determination of whether the ceasefire lasted at least 48 hours. If such sources are in consensus about whether the ceasefire lasted 48 hours then that should be simple enough; it only gets complicated if they disagree.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think that the end of the ceasefire should be counted based on whether the involved parties think the ceasefire is still in effect. I agree that isolated incidents of violence would not count as ending the ceasefire unless the parties think it counted as ending the ceasefire. I'm going to leave determination of edge cases up to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "israeli-politics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on the resolution date, for example, this market would resolve to \"Yes\" if the ceasefire continues for 48h).\n\nUpdate:\n\nAs stated above \"The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources.\" and that will form the primary basis for determination of whether the ceasefire lasted at least 48 hours. If such sources are in consensus about whether the ceasefire lasted 48 hours then that should be simple enough; it only gets complicated if they disagree.\n\nI think that the end of the ceasefire should be counted based on whether the involved parties think the ceasefire is still in effect. I agree that isolated incidents of violence would not count as ending the ceasefire unless the parties think it counted as ending the ceasefire. I'm going to leave determination of edge cases up to https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30\n\n"}, {"id": "lQV3TFr2KnEOgFOKnQhA", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1700416899469, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1702494000000, "question": "Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on Wed. December 13th than it closed on Tue. December 12th? {DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-1b5f6e6fa723", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-1b5f6e6fa723", "pool": {"NO": 159.76183960612792, "YES": 307.67571867293253}, "probability": 0.4993373191695964, "p": 0.657621218675831, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 596.922538922502, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702506479843, "resolutionProbability": 0.5, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702506473100, "lastBetTime": 1702493960639, "lastCommentTime": 1702506472446, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2pm ET (7pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FneicIOe-PV.png?alt=media&token=7cd7eb93-576b-4a41-9fe1-7b5a0acc75bd", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-f120c1081ec4", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR DAILY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/which-nasdaq-stock-will-have-the-5t-c365556b8668", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "finance", "stocks"], "textDescription": "Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)\n\nNasdaq closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)\n\nPredictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-ixic-close-higher-o-f120c1081ec4)SIMILAR DAILY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/which-nasdaq-stock-will-have-the-5t-c365556b8668)"}, {"id": "JwLvHp1BQ2PaLZq6wVS3", "creatorId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "creatorUsername": "LBeesley", "creatorName": "Spongpad", "createdTime": 1685028986627, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLBeesley%2F_uhmErZXVJ.jpg?alt=media&token=d65ca4c2-2cf8-44dd-8624-9f8c6cb1e486", "closeTime": 1690865940000, "question": "Will NVIDIA\u2019s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close below $300USD per share before August 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto", "pool": {"NO": 150.17971091224365, "YES": 972.2900107210902}, "probability": 0.043710758739525256, "p": 0.22835120898655634, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1582.2642765709988, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690886001163, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690833115818, "lastBetTime": 1690833115198, "lastCommentTime": 1690824461200, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After closing at approximately $305 yesterday, NVIDIA's earnings call has prompted a near 30% surge during today's trading day (5/25/2023).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will track through both June and July with external factors such as the debt ceiling discussion, tech stocks' volatility, et al, affecting posted stock price during this time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes below $300USD on any trading day between now and the end of July 2023. Any dips below $300USD during a trading day will not count towards this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "99d82db6-17d2-4d88-a49c-755313d9b369", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/", "image": "https://s.yimg.com/cv/apiv2/social/images/yahoo_default_logo.png", "title": "NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Find the latest NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F6fTKXWL5xE.png?alt=media&token=8feb86ab-bd18-4c7e-a6e6-961f9ae54573", "groupSlugs": ["stocks"], "textDescription": "After closing at approximately $305 yesterday, NVIDIA's earnings call has prompted a near 30% surge during today's trading day (5/25/2023).\n\nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/\n\nWill track through both June and July with external factors such as the debt ceiling discussion, tech stocks' volatility, et al, affecting posted stock price during this time.\n\nWill resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes below $300USD on any trading day between now and the end of July 2023. Any dips below $300USD during a trading day will not count towards this market.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "JHvfwcpFkxfb00KPnu56", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678414418444, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679003312899, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Daily Wire Reporter RAGEQUITS Because Of G*nocidal Trans Rheto\" reach 160k views by 3/16 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-daily-wire-report", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-daily-wire-report", "pool": {"NO": 44.694747494844705, "YES": 11451.74723631981}, "probability": 0.0014116960567857396, "p": 0.26590309181435723, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11553.229013083139, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679003312899, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679003308985, "lastBetTime": 1679003308802, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/WsU3qkbHqdI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/WsU3qkbHqdI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FmVoN9nY6-c.png?alt=media&token=1c836387-753e-4135-841e-d75b62e67de0", "groupSlugs": ["vaush", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/WsU3qkbHqdI\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "RlVWpCFaQ7BmtZq52zl0", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678336686711, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678906798623, "question": "Will Destiny's video \"Destiny Debates White Identity w/ Richard Spencer On NoJumpe\" reach 225k views by 3/15 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-video-destiny-debates-b81e5884e671", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-destiny-debates-b81e5884e671", "pool": {"NO": 10.515886224849964, "YES": 11293.340602501363}, "probability": 0.0008270457562889444, "p": 0.4705985254200667, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14288.30545680857, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1678906798623, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218561886, "lastBetTime": 1678906795339, "lastCommentTime": 1678901364718, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/IoOPvF78gLA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/IoOPvF78gLA", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F7wdrtcXdXE.png?alt=media&token=cf83973e-2b13-4634-bfbb-7f49d3dacff4", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/IoOPvF78gLA\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "T4NrzqFxJOAtBO9U1KKX", "creatorId": "IEVDP2LTpgMYaka38r1TVZcabWS2", "creatorUsername": "GeorgeVii", "creatorName": "GeorgeVii", "createdTime": 1674658245356, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGeorgeVii%2Fyoung-pope-canceled-or-season-2-release-date-hbo-1-e1485915244258.jpg?alt=media&token=b769a5bd-b657-4229-8895-af217c099daa", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "If Adani crumbles will the Indian stock market take a >=20% hit? (see description)", "slug": "if-adani-crumbles-will-the-indian-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/if-adani-crumbles-will-the-indian-s", "pool": {"NO": 210.38294005225092, "YES": 521.1697607908364}, "probability": 0.1599999999999999, "p": 0.320585661344889, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 723.7956803080556, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705758978312, "resolutionProbability": 0.16, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222345149, "lastBetTime": 1695677306272, "lastCommentTime": 1705758974869, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Adani Enterprises falls bellow 1676 INR (ie >=60% from all time highs)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "will iShares MSCI India ETF, INDA, fall bellow $33.224 (ie >=20% from today) in the 18 months following the Adani crash?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "sry this is kind of a mounthful. please suggest if you have a better way of expressing essence of question (is india fucked if adani crashes, defaults on loans, etc)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "asia", "2023-stocks-forecasting"], "textDescription": "If Adani Enterprises falls bellow 1676 INR (ie >=60% from all time highs)\nwill iShares MSCI India ETF, INDA, fall bellow $33.224 (ie >=20% from today) in the 18 months following the Adani crash?\n\nsry this is kind of a mounthful. please suggest if you have a better way of expressing essence of question (is india fucked if adani crashes, defaults on loans, etc)\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "1Jgz0kIBXIIHq7sp1TEq", "creatorId": "BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2", "creatorUsername": "SethWalder", "creatorName": "Seth Walder", "createdTime": 1709663910744, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqPUcbeawwO7EXS3I33snr4hxsxdLjhNYrwhFFP=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711779529509, "question": "(Free Agency 2024) Will Josh Jacobs receive more fully guaranteed money at signing than Saquon Barkley?", "slug": "free-agency-2024-will-josh-jacobs-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SethWalder/free-agency-2024-will-josh-jacobs-r", "pool": {"NO": 77.6791111902452, "YES": 1142.5848800078782}, "probability": 0.03874165590028664, "p": 0.3721823655920675, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 928.1705772982042, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711779529509, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "BrBG7QaUHeMrx3ZXPqy5AxfeFTw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711779529509, "lastBetTime": 1710297681465, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://overthecap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://overthecap.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as source for settling this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that fully guaranteed money is different than what is often referred to as simply \"guaranteed\" money (which may include guarantees for injury only, etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question is about total fully guaranteed money (not per year) and is in relation to the next contract each player signs in 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl", "football"], "textDescription": "Will use https://overthecap.com/ as source for settling this question.\n\nNote that fully guaranteed money is different than what is often referred to as simply \"guaranteed\" money (which may include guarantees for injury only, etc.\n\nThis question is about total fully guaranteed money (not per year) and is in relation to the next contract each player signs in 2024."}, {"id": "8HhQtnQlBAoaxBs1mCXL", "creatorId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "creatorUsername": "TonyPepperoni", "creatorName": "TonyPepperoni \ud83e\udd86", "createdTime": 1713119383654, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTonyPepperoni%2FuHF336sHY7.jpeg?alt=media&token=5ab3fad2-7bf9-40b3-9884-fdf2cfdcaefb", "closeTime": 1716248278112, "question": "Will Manifold change the weekly market creation bonus before June?", "slug": "will-manifold-change-the-weekly-mar", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TonyPepperoni/will-manifold-change-the-weekly-mar", "pool": {"NO": 1397.1130114898187, "YES": 14.98041041251804}, "probability": 0.9896957440640152, "p": 0.5073546400962671, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1313.9441867648263, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716248278112, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "DGYg1e9JksfeFvPHFCuHLkKpEcV2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716248278112, "lastBetTime": 1716244690675, "lastCommentTime": 1716244724451, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold is planning to make a lot of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tweaks to the mana economy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Announcement-A-sustainable-mana-economy-08b86e8937554cc7a4608371f66ecb10?pvs=4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", many of which reduce the amount of mana they are printing. Will they alter the weekly market creation bonus in some way?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently the system works by paying out 50 mana for the first market a user makes in the week.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "Manifold is planning to make a lot of tweaks to the mana economy, many of which reduce the amount of mana they are printing. Will they alter the weekly market creation bonus in some way?\n\nCurrently the system works by paying out 50 mana for the first market a user makes in the week."}, {"id": "frPSJxNz9X5MTn6mEAHw", "creatorId": "XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1", "creatorUsername": "Schwabilismus", "creatorName": "Schwabilismus", "createdTime": 1684767167655, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSchwabilismus%2Fqo4pIJCti7.jpg?alt=media&token=fb8c78ea-1d38-4f4b-87ac-9e48249d8120", "closeTime": 1685376000000, "question": "Will Ukraine take Grayvoron this week?", "slug": "will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we", "pool": {"NO": 94.0371201129895, "YES": 23349.67475457668}, "probability": 0.000791159888750166, "p": 0.16430074200569636, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23830.15403299624, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1685377225315, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685375042872, "lastBetTime": 1685375042719, "lastCommentTime": 1684930416767, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context, as this is just unfolding:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to create a \"security strip\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am interested in how wide this zone will be.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria will be the map of Deepstatelive:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/50.4802/35.6510", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/50.4802/35.6510", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "82c07224-862b-40d4-9e38-12421ffdad3b", "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/50.4802/35.6510", "image": "https://deepstatemap.live/images/meta_og.jpg", "title": "DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine", "description": "News of Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine on the map", "deleteCallback": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves yes if at any time before Monday 29th 15:00 GMT  the area marked \"contested\" reaches the bridge of \"Tarana Street\" over the creek \"Grayvoronka\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sorry, but I haven't figured out how to place markers on Deepstatelive.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is the marker on google maps:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/maps/place/50.482857,+35.685731/@50.481462,35.6853208,16z/data=!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d50.4828574!4d35.6857314", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/maps/place/50.482857,+35.685731/@50.481462,35.6853208,16z/data=!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d50.4828574!4d35.6857314", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the coordinates:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50.482857, 35.685731", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvkGxzKBu8Q.png?alt=media&token=18d2cdc7-19f4-4ecf-9820-42c202ad804d", "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia"], "textDescription": "Context, as this is just unfolding:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA\n\nRussian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to create a \"security strip\".\n\nI am interested in how wide this zone will be.\n\nResolution criteria will be the map of Deepstatelive:\n\nhttps://deepstatemap.live/en#12/50.4802/35.6510\n\n[link preview]Market resolves yes if at any time before Monday 29th 15:00 GMT  the area marked \"contested\" reaches the bridge of \"Tarana Street\" over the creek \"Grayvoronka\".\n\nSorry, but I haven't figured out how to place markers on Deepstatelive.\n\nHere is the marker on google maps:\n\nhttps://www.google.com/maps/place/50.482857,+35.685731/@50.481462,35.6853208,16z/data=!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d50.4828574!4d35.6857314\n\nHere are the coordinates:\n\n50.482857, 35.685731"}, {"id": "AnT892PTTfjIxYqs39lz", "creatorId": "HQzIlQIYD8PorlSmx6FpFIr30wA3", "creatorUsername": "JulianLees", "creatorName": "Julian Lees", "createdTime": 1694035064306, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJulianLees%2FOzaY_9n2Vb.jpg?alt=media&token=fb65c083-fcba-4da0-b58b-f92834687237", "closeTime": 1697278885579, "question": "Will National's party vote underperform opinion polling for the 2023 NZ General Election?", "slug": "will-nationals-party-vote-underperf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JulianLees/will-nationals-party-vote-underperf", "pool": {"NO": 25.622576934140767, "YES": 175.7834974215902}, "probability": 0.10000000000000009, "p": 0.4325523001149928, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 296.76671346080377, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697278885579, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698980128813, "lastBetTime": 1697278064583, "lastCommentTime": 1698980128084, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if National underperforms the trend-line for opinion polling here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Otherwise resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Refer to the right axis points on the 2020 Election page as an example: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2023-new-zealand-general-election", "nz-politics", "new-zealand", "elections-world", "elections"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if National underperforms the trend-line for opinion polling here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election\n\nOtherwise resolves NO\n\nRefer to the right axis points on the 2020 Election page as an example: \nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election"}, {"id": "MFyKw0pjCBfGs98NXefD", "creatorId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "creatorUsername": "BernardoChrispimBaron", "creatorName": "Bernardo Chrispim Baron", "createdTime": 1667851590901, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c", "closeTime": 1671465794408, "question": "Will the Brazilian Supreme Court outlaw unidentified amendments to the Federal Budget (\"Secret Budget\") by the end of 2022?", "slug": "will-the-brazilian-supreme-court-ou", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/will-the-brazilian-supreme-court-ou", "pool": {"NO": 501.61258547795626, "YES": 49.58743397796979}, "probability": 0.9000000000000001, "p": 0.4708166951321299, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 667.1039262221636, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671465794408, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671466602414, "lastBetTime": 1671460801021, "lastCommentTime": 1671466598467, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/10/07/understand-why-the-so-called-secret-budget-is-related-to-illegality-and-corruption", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/10/07/understand-why-the-so-called-secret-budget-is-related-to-illegality-and-corruption", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if all active Supreme Court ministers vote and a majority decide against the current mechanism where parliament members can add expenses to the Federal Budget through \"rapporteur amendments\", without identifying themselves. (If the majority of ministers vote for keeping rapporteur amendments, but require final authorship of the amendments to be publicly disclosed, this still counts as YES). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as NO if a majority vote for keeping the mechanism as it is today; or if the discussion is not evaluated by the Supreme Court until Dec 31, 2022 (including if any minister requests a case review and does not return it for evaluation by this date, even if a majority have already voted).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[pt-BR]", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "O Supremo Tribunal Federal vai proibir emendas sem identifica\u00e7\u00e3o do autor no Or\u00e7amento Federal (\"Or\u00e7amento Secreto\") at\u00e9 o final de 2022?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolvido como SIM se todos os membros atuantes do Supremo Tribunal Federal votarem e a maioria decidir contra o mecanismo atual em que parlamentares podem incluir despesas no Or\u00e7amento Federal por meio de emendas do relator, sem se identificarem. (Se a maioria dos ministros votar por manter as emendas de relator, mas exigir que a autoria final das emendas seja disponibilizada publicamente, isso ainda conta como SIM).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolvido como N\u00c3O se a maioria dos ministros votar por manter o mecanismo como ele \u00e9 hoje; ou se o tema n\u00e3o for completamente votado no STF at\u00e9 31 de dezembro de 2022 (incluindo se algum ministro pedir vistas do processo e n\u00e3o o devolver para discuss\u00e3o at\u00e9 essa data, mesmo que j\u00e1 haja maioria formada).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fh7KoN0fNzL.png?alt=media&token=a79d2e8b-7d4a-4c7c-905a-00030886513a", "groupSlugs": ["brazil-3292d24d179f", "latam-caribbean", "politics-default", "supremo-tribunal-federal"], "textDescription": "Context: https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2022/10/07/understand-why-the-so-called-secret-budget-is-related-to-illegality-and-corruption\n\nResolves as YES if all active Supreme Court ministers vote and a majority decide against the current mechanism where parliament members can add expenses to the Federal Budget through \"rapporteur amendments\", without identifying themselves. (If the majority of ministers vote for keeping rapporteur amendments, but require final authorship of the amendments to be publicly disclosed, this still counts as YES). \n\nResolves as NO if a majority vote for keeping the mechanism as it is today; or if the discussion is not evaluated by the Supreme Court until Dec 31, 2022 (including if any minister requests a case review and does not return it for evaluation by this date, even if a majority have already voted).\n\n[pt-BR]\n\nO Supremo Tribunal Federal vai proibir emendas sem identifica\u00e7\u00e3o do autor no Or\u00e7amento Federal (\"Or\u00e7amento Secreto\") at\u00e9 o final de 2022?\n\nResolvido como SIM se todos os membros atuantes do Supremo Tribunal Federal votarem e a maioria decidir contra o mecanismo atual em que parlamentares podem incluir despesas no Or\u00e7amento Federal por meio de emendas do relator, sem se identificarem. (Se a maioria dos ministros votar por manter as emendas de relator, mas exigir que a autoria final das emendas seja disponibilizada publicamente, isso ainda conta como SIM).\n\nResolvido como N\u00c3O se a maioria dos ministros votar por manter o mecanismo como ele \u00e9 hoje; ou se o tema n\u00e3o for completamente votado no STF at\u00e9 31 de dezembro de 2022 (incluindo se algum ministro pedir vistas do processo e n\u00e3o o devolver para discuss\u00e3o at\u00e9 essa data, mesmo que j\u00e1 haja maioria formada)."}, {"id": "Kczo6O5gzEX3irTiq1nf", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1678887340081, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1679083502193, "question": "Will First Republic Bank (FRC) stock fall below $15 this week?", "slug": "will-first-republic-bank-frc-stock", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-first-republic-bank-frc-stock", "pool": {"NO": 84.78759569297472, "YES": 5162.239050981563}, "probability": 0.0028235957799419703, "p": 0.14704851757218074, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5478.109693331554, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679083502193, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679083751631, "lastBetTime": 1679083389229, "lastCommentTime": 1679083748385, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "First Republic Bank stock plunged after the collapse of SVB. FRC's 52-wk low is $17.53. Will it reach a new low below $15 this week?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if FRC stock falls below $15 during trading hours, according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRC?p=FRC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRC?p=FRC", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Also resolves YES if First Republic Bank fails and is closed by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FDIC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Resolves NO if neither of those happens by the close of markets Friday 4pm ET.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtHTRU83ZaE.png?alt=media&token=2ecb287a-5654-484c-bf45-17c245af24d0", "groupSlugs": ["finance", "svb-crisis", "wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "First Republic Bank stock plunged after the collapse of SVB. FRC's 52-wk low is $17.53. Will it reach a new low below $15 this week?\n\nResolves YES if FRC stock falls below $15 during trading hours, according to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRC?p=FRC. Also resolves YES if First Republic Bank fails and is closed by the FDIC. Resolves NO if neither of those happens by the close of markets Friday 4pm ET."}, {"id": "NwwTyL52U5urTSzqEDza", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1701638008816, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1703400740584, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will South Alabama beat Eastern Michigan in the 68 Ventures Bowl?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-south-alabama-beat-3cbed7524bd4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-south-alabama-beat-3cbed7524bd4", "pool": {"NO": 5607.837260201081, "YES": 68.11601836951502}, "probability": 0.9973224996381882, "p": 0.8189845042712552, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5771.2848579766, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703400740584, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703400734552, "lastBetTime": 1703400734427, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-12-23 at 7 PM ET in Mobile, AL. Line: South Alabama -17.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/1909cf77ab36.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=HN0PydQNAJvXcAtHDdSNz70WJD95migEoEAdiQLsYHT4hEkpRYxYbA9r6SPVg6jtwfJwmtt%2Ff8uQPBvAsL2IY47mfK8Xe8j6XO8YclyN7tUbcC%2B5zmteGuWsXoz8Uoe%2FAUsAXJdi5xo5zRSgxw%2F20aPM8Qy3s8sXC8mBq%2FacMRy2SaZ1yyhq%2FFNCPUV3vZf7Ti933wmDxK1YZUrvu89%2BianHPiLiyYrPMR%2F7fvzWvym9KCy8kzuaPeQ2aVeYjCrNlb4uZxCDG1PqO9CSO5SLqrAuRnwrzF2%2BR1AJ1ZfVgqP9OTOa%2FfosLk%2FYs%2FWSpS6nQrvM8vbd1ZLBGOQg1QRhHw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "college-football", "football"], "textDescription": "2023-12-23 at 7 PM ET in Mobile, AL. Line: South Alabama -17."}, {"id": "rNnoGcEmP2uM5yR93Fyf", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702392094762, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702508400000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 13 than it closed on December 12?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-5c1c1474dac0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-5c1c1474dac0", "pool": {"NO": 1671.0988503936153, "YES": 57.14734305127761}, "probability": 0.997168820556526, "p": 0.9233403850033612, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3307.460207835893, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702518128328, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702518123740, "lastBetTime": 1702508362469, "lastCommentTime": 1702518118021, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "7.09", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $7.09\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "zmZCo9v6kqMQxUkr1m0O", "creatorId": "ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2", "creatorUsername": "kiudee", "creatorName": "Kiudee", "createdTime": 1701940156406, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLpAlqI7VYParAwlJSRbnbvlFS51l8h8NBliwuHiasXJRw1=s96-c", "closeTime": 1707403948883, "question": "Will Gemini Ultra be part of Google One before 2024-07-01?", "slug": "placeholder-75b56206ccfc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kiudee/placeholder-75b56206ccfc", "pool": {"NO": 9839.136048704424, "YES": 114.09846550970788}, "probability": 0.9959163116582598, "p": 0.738773062783787, "totalLiquidity": 507.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11162.898767393195, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707403948883, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "ZLXN9v9SHRdhtflzy0clMAb419M2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707403949675, "lastBetTime": 1707402690440, "lastCommentTime": 1707402187573, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Google includes Chatbot Gemini Ultra in their Google One subscription packages.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Google One undergoes a rebranding that incorporates Gemini Ultra along with its existing subscription services.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The subscription for Gemini Ultra remains completely independent of Google One.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gemini Ultra  is not available by July 1st, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Gemini Ultra will be freely available without subscription.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/derpy153/will-bard-advanced-be-a-subscriptio", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6vPq92sdDd.18?alt=media&token=599841b5-8835-4638-abe7-a1ad46a823fa", "groupSlugs": ["google-ef2cf716540e", "google-gemini", "technology-default", "google-bard", "ai", "artificial-intelligence", "llms"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if\n\nGoogle includes Chatbot Gemini Ultra in their Google One subscription packages.\n\nGoogle One undergoes a rebranding that incorporates Gemini Ultra along with its existing subscription services.\n\nResolves NO if\n\nThe subscription for Gemini Ultra remains completely independent of Google One.\n\nGemini Ultra  is not available by July 1st, 2024.\n\nIf Gemini Ultra will be freely available without subscription.\n\nI will not bet on this market.\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/derpy153/will-bard-advanced-be-a-subscriptio)"}, {"id": "AyTVDEDywAaWd7a9izKy", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081496606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1704150000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on January 1 than it closed on December 31?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-january-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-january-1", "pool": {"NO": 946.9616243218214, "YES": 104.61231313671466}, "probability": 0.9526704778881095, "p": 0.6897899571364441, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1060.1917850461243, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704155073542, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704155073723, "lastBetTime": 1704148951014, "lastCommentTime": 1704155067758, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F3ca66078db7a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "aEUU0sd2syMatKKOHQgC", "creatorId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "creatorUsername": "Ernie", "creatorName": "Ernie", "createdTime": 1693150473420, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStrayClimb%2FfFdjzywOTA.jpg?alt=media&token=f61be426-ce94-43e0-8761-3d26c24f8466", "closeTime": 1693271740700, "question": "Will the main LK99 market sink to 7% or lower through EOY 2023", "slug": "will-the-main-lk99-market-sink-to-7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ernie/will-the-main-lk99-market-sink-to-7", "pool": {"NO": 1754.5368663061022, "YES": 56.4924143067608}, "probability": 0.9907633073218378, "p": 0.7754661642776293, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1684.3200016524547, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693271740700, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693271021542, "lastBetTime": 1693270893502, "lastCommentTime": 1693271020219, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Midnight pst ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "<=7% starting from now around 11%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The related market: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "1sfbjcTu6zgqjCVjqWA2", "label": "/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["lk99-derivative-markets", "lk99", "superconductivity"], "textDescription": "Midnight pst \n\n<=7% starting from now around 11%\n\nThe related market: @/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre "}, {"id": "TZmWCNr0SxiFvBcX9oOp", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1701645313980, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1703718000000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Virginia Tech beat Tulane in the Military Bowl?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-virginia-tech-beat-0c5d128288b1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-virginia-tech-beat-0c5d128288b1", "pool": {"NO": 3319.740341049384, "YES": 58.87270790903096}, "probability": 0.9938798999224278, "p": 0.7422648661189855, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3701.4078377144915, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703725710824, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703725711169, "lastBetTime": 1703715915125, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-12-27 at 2 PM ET in Annapolis, MD. Line: Virginia Tech -10.5.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/464e577baaca.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=BSs%2FG2xtQQ5A9OEFralV%2BRrPqIXoLMZumz2TfQ67vva9BZGrX%2BWauNrwdBoNWXPUSKy9WF6lZsf0i1RGyeAoW0shF%2BpmWEAgWu7Cekof920jnItYvzfrpOuuqCU4nvLFNDlc2AG829iAfIg6z7U1XqmazuHfkeZcpdkdnCsKRCiLo0uXlOZp1TFq4o3h6o2ZnH7b9YpqVC%2B3z%2FFbNh8VqvTU3kdGG9I3O7cYoqQuKmx19Iu3YKZNTglVtoQFSqtr8OjLijz%2B71XB8GridrFreRnadhsdArhr9jyyICbKwd0rLRq%2Bn%2F%2BKWiAAaNsLEhiIVHkSyqzTCl5T3Ze%2B97n1hA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "acc", "college-football"], "textDescription": "2023-12-27 at 2 PM ET in Annapolis, MD. Line: Virginia Tech -10.5."}, {"id": "GIo2sgHIkVYkp6Xych4d", "creatorId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "creatorUsername": "SteveSokolowski", "creatorName": "Steve Sokolowski", "createdTime": 1694262010295, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705406954562, "question": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican Iowa caucuses?", "slug": "will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2024-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-vivek-ramaswamy-win-the-2024-r", "pool": {"NO": 243.6590990171215, "YES": 6418.488617369139}, "probability": 0.003909530164386962, "p": 0.09370162566798404, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10550.547907301449, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705406954562, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456554093, "lastBetTime": 1705394795782, "lastCommentTime": 1705388043769, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 15, 2024, the Iowa caucuses will be the first contest in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary elections.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to win or tie for the most delegates at the end of January.  It resolves to N/A if the caucuses aren't held by then or if there is a tabulation error as occurred in the 2020 Democratic cacuses that delays ballot counting for longer than 17 days.  It resolves to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As delegates are the only relevant metric for who may be elected President, it is possible that Ramaswamy could win the most votes and end up with a \"NO\" resolution, or suspend his campaign and end up with a YES resolution.  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market permanently resolves before February 1 by counting the delegates estimated at that time no matter what, even if delegates later become unbound, and even if there is a contested convention.  The market will be closed earlier than February 1 if it is clear and obvious that a blowout has occurred.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is a discrepency between media outlets as to the number of delegates pledged and the caucus is close, CNN's tally will be preferred.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rules for the Republican nominating contests are located at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fda9df64-d979-4a34-a40d-dda7115e6767", "url": "https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024", "image": "https://ballotpedia.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/images/bp-logo-sm.svg", "title": "Republican delegate rules, 2024", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLUTION", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":  Ramaswamy finished fourth in the caucuses, so the resolution is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries", "vivek-ramaswamy", "iowa-caucuses", "iowa"], "textDescription": "On January 15, 2024, the Iowa caucuses will be the first contest in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary elections.\n\nThis market resolves to YES if businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to win or tie for the most delegates at the end of January.  It resolves to N/A if the caucuses aren't held by then or if there is a tabulation error as occurred in the 2020 Democratic cacuses that delays ballot counting for longer than 17 days.  It resolves to NO otherwise.\n\nAs delegates are the only relevant metric for who may be elected President, it is possible that Ramaswamy could win the most votes and end up with a \"NO\" resolution, or suspend his campaign and end up with a YES resolution.  \n\nThis market permanently resolves before February 1 by counting the delegates estimated at that time no matter what, even if delegates later become unbound, and even if there is a contested convention.  The market will be closed earlier than February 1 if it is clear and obvious that a blowout has occurred.\n\nIf there is a discrepency between media outlets as to the number of delegates pledged and the caucus is close, CNN's tally will be preferred.\n\nThe rules for the Republican nominating contests are located at https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024.\n\n[link preview]RESOLUTION:  Ramaswamy finished fourth in the caucuses, so the resolution is NO."}, {"id": "8DHpN28buuz71UW6YVmi", "creatorId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "creatorUsername": "Gen", "creatorName": "Genzy", "createdTime": 1716486413083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTodWaddington%2FHiYzxYf-w5.png?alt=media&token=eb5b9c77-b2f2-410e-9bad-76d96081176f", "closeTime": 1716505591276, "question": "Will the Polymarket Ethereum ETF by May31 market resolve YES based on solely a 19b-4 SEC approval?", "slug": "will-the-polymarket-ethereum-etf-by", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-polymarket-ethereum-etf-by", "pool": {"NO": 72881.45485977057, "YES": 33106.463100696405}, "probability": 0.6637245033305592, "p": 0.4727347514570609, "totalLiquidity": 51000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 129318.09412450733, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716512001730, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "resolverId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716513133007, "lastBetTime": 1716503260469, "lastCommentTime": 1716513131286, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Polymarket | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-etf-approved-by-may-31?tid=1716486148909", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1793627909950763103"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES and the ETH ETF has only the 19b-4 SEC approval and NOT and S-1 SEC approval by May31.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If that market hasn't resolved by May31, this will wait for the resolution -- but any approvals which occur AFTER May31 will be discounted.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Gen/4032db32f7b0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["polymarket", "crypto-speculation", "ethereum"], "textDescription": "context: Polymarket | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?\n\n[tweet]This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES and the ETH ETF has only the 19b-4 SEC approval and NOT and S-1 SEC approval by May31.\n\nIf that market hasn't resolved by May31, this will wait for the resolution -- but any approvals which occur AFTER May31 will be discounted."}, {"id": "pyP5ocsNBkS8n9MrpMIk", "creatorId": "IX4Txfl87BgyhzXbJbF4fhqABes2", "creatorUsername": "BionicD0LPH1N", "creatorName": "Bionic", "createdTime": 1675238800553, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBionicD0LPH1N%2FDALL%C2%B7E%202022-06-15%2018.11.13%20-%20a%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20very%20detailed%20flying%20dolphin%20cyborg%2C%20digital%20style.png?alt=media&token=20773b91-2efd-46f2-8acf-a75f6a5cfcbc", "closeTime": 1677646740000, "question": "Will I find a satisfying TTS for my audiobook project before March?", "slug": "will-i-find-a-satisfying-tts-for-my", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-i-find-a-satisfying-tts-for-my", "pool": {"NO": 69.1967373123393, "YES": 441.4283910057839}, "probability": 0.07313183094894235, "p": 0.33481534055698875, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 380, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1677646783628, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1677646392450, "lastBetTime": 1677646392302, "lastCommentTime": 1676228859456, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I need to find a good text-to-speech model for a project.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "$1k manalink if I use a TTS you recommended for my audiobook project!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively if I find a TTS that satisfies me (and most of my desiderata).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It needs to have most of these characteristics:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Be relatively cheap and preferably free, absolute maximum $200 per 500k words (or find me funding idc). (I need more than 2M words total so high-volume deals can be made)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Be high enough quality that it is nearly indistinguishable from human speech (see ultra-realistic voices ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://play.ht/ultra-realistic-voices/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). If I can hear weird artifacts every few sentences, this fails.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have implicit/context-dependent intonation.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have a usable API.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reply to my emails (this is where ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "play.ht", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://play.ht", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " fails).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Have at least 20 distinct voices or voice cloning technology.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It must give the ability to test in demos/cheap subscriptions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pay-per-use.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unrelated plus: have good voices in French (independent manalink of $1k for this, doesn't need to have most of the above characteristics).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(I might add other characteristics over time if I think of them)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution criterion does not depend on the TTS fitting all these desiderata perfectly or completely; so long as I am satisfied with the TTS, this market resolves positively. However, I guarantee that if all of these characteristics are respected, I will resolve it positively.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FS8eEA4GU5x.png?alt=media&token=62375f10-fcc2-4ccb-a423-83824fbcf777", "textDescription": "I need to find a good text-to-speech model for a project.\n\n$1k manalink if I use a TTS you recommended for my audiobook project!\n\nThis market resolves positively if I find a TTS that satisfies me (and most of my desiderata).\n\nIt needs to have most of these characteristics:\n\nBe relatively cheap and preferably free, absolute maximum $200 per 500k words (or find me funding idc). (I need more than 2M words total so high-volume deals can be made)\n\nBe high enough quality that it is nearly indistinguishable from human speech (see ultra-realistic voices here). If I can hear weird artifacts every few sentences, this fails.\n\nHave implicit/context-dependent intonation.\n\nHave a usable API.\n\nReply to my emails (this is where play.ht fails).\n\nHave at least 20 distinct voices or voice cloning technology.\n\nIt must give the ability to test in demos/cheap subscriptions.\n\nPay-per-use.\n\nUnrelated plus: have good voices in French (independent manalink of $1k for this, doesn't need to have most of the above characteristics).\n\n(I might add other characteristics over time if I think of them)\n\nThe resolution criterion does not depend on the TTS fitting all these desiderata perfectly or completely; so long as I am satisfied with the TTS, this market resolves positively. However, I guarantee that if all of these characteristics are respected, I will resolve it positively."}, {"id": "snHw9tr7dpyOhJkE928Q", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681579918, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1708959599950, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Feb 25, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-c81aba547d76", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-c81aba547d76", "pool": {"NO": 64.55319958757559, "YES": 2549.8897913070177}, "probability": 0.0023881566250570168, "p": 0.0863904030209731, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4006.563911107324, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708963767519, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708963767785, "lastBetTime": 1708959008689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Feb 25, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F2088e4b82486.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Feb 25, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "Gv2XQVEp0tTVwxvk8khs", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1686192233981, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1686501236455, "question": "Will Novak Djokovic win the 2023 French Open and become the Men's Singles All-Time Leader in Grand Slam Titles?", "slug": "will-novak-djokovic-win-the-2023-fr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-2023-fr", "pool": {"NO": 6410.662624551755, "YES": 21.11814805786357}, "probability": 0.9981402732956405, "p": 0.6387352839252245, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11371.90477577542, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686501241434, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686500878349, "lastBetTime": 1686500878222, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He's currently tied with Rafael Nadal at 22 and is currently in the semifinals of the 2023 French Open. He has beaten #1 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. Will he beat #4 Casper Ruud in the Finals and take home #23?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/tennis/dailyResults?date=20230611", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/tennis/dailyResults?date=20230611", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "JSsFtICndLm1unDB5RNb,iTQu6amlDR93veKmU3cD,uIKZ6ZhG0rTZXtBydPr1,AHYvVLimD0mAJiBCzzRy,uFdS9KLyoHq5LslrBG4E,XQNcZ6ZnPTApm8RhjZHE,CLQxwrilWWWn6YwVL9r1"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fpdkgqhxgu7.png?alt=media&token=b3032545-8c53-4520-b18b-ee92e353830f", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "He's currently tied with Rafael Nadal at 22 and is currently in the semifinals of the 2023 French Open. He has beaten #1 Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals. Will he beat #4 Casper Ruud in the Finals and take home #23?\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/tennis/dailyResults?date=20230611\n\nAdditional Markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "uHKJr8OKW9AYnrCWKBaW", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705288614567, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705374900000, "question": "Will the Colorado Avalanche beat Montreal Canadiens on Jan 15?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-avalanche-beat-mo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-colorado-avalanche-beat-mo", "pool": {"NO": 28.27730816218223, "YES": 1594.2583269318902}, "probability": 0.005589999111287938, "p": 0.24065968454057923, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2321.9974490416644, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705377323302, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705377323495, "lastBetTime": 1705374355917, "lastCommentTime": 1705377317307, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Colorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=avalanche+vs+canadiens&client=firefox-b-1-d&sca_esv=598472506&ei=W6OkZYCxGMf-ptQPramT0Ao&ved=0ahUKEwjAyoXttt6DAxVHv4kEHa3UBKoQ4dUDCBA&uact=5&oq=avalanche+vs+canadiens&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiFmF2YWxhbmNoZSB2cyBjYW5hZGllbnMyBBAAGAMyERAAGIAEGIoFGJECGLEDGIMBMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHjIGEAAYFhgeMgYQABgWGB4yBhAAGBYYHkjiBFAfWLwDcAF4AJABAJgBkAGgAY4CqgEDMC4yuAEDyAEA-AEBwgINEAAYgAQYigUYQxiwA8ICBxAAGAMYsAPCAgkQABgIGB4YsAPiAwQYASBBiAYBkAYE&sclient=gws-wiz-serp", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Colorado Avalanche win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4d1NtoPnf1.png?alt=media&token=6e3c81f8-f50d-4b18-8258-b684a2970136", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fc4c74e352c20.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "sports-default", "hockey", "montreal-canadiens", "colorado-avalanche"], "textDescription": "This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.\n\nColorado Avalanche vs Montreal Canadiens @6pm CST\n\nGame start at 6:00pm CST.\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Colorado Avalanche win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "wFYmRcwHb2c53MfdpKT6", "creatorId": "i1J2TGosWpaqEdmTNvZ9rkL3KKB2", "creatorUsername": "Zardoru", "creatorName": "Zardoru", "createdTime": 1679557267681, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi2zcxQEIJb0YhDpOdYy6Ff9AQWyMuv4u7cdkwukA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1683496740000, "question": "Manifold poet GPT-P still active in May", "slug": "manifold-poet-gptp-still-active-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/manifold-poet-gptp-still-active-in", "pool": {"NO": 82.81258862044213, "YES": 2296.604629653417}, "probability": 0.015559840004251603, "p": 0.30475144579879754, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3505.5786042314485, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683497897321, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683496868497, "lastBetTime": 1683496739763, "lastCommentTime": 1683496862290, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I like the little poems but some users feel it's spam.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If @GPT-P writes a poem, in a manifest market comment, during the first week of May, this resolve as YES, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sunday 7th of May is included.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FBdtCvsQtd_.png?alt=media&token=b4a08232-73b4-4d1a-9922-c6f8587f2a75", "textDescription": "I like the little poems but some users feel it's spam.\n\nIf @GPT-P writes a poem, in a manifest market comment, during the first week of May, this resolve as YES, otherwise NO.\n\nSunday 7th of May is included.\n\n"}, {"id": "S13anqPzBK1mIp5HRRyr", "creatorId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "creatorUsername": "Eliza", "creatorName": "Eliza", "createdTime": 1708710232454, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714579550967, "question": "Will Mathieu van der Poel race any extra races* before 1 May 2024?", "slug": "will-mathieu-van-der-poel-race-any", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-race-any", "pool": {"NO": 26.201673145731093, "YES": 1157.5597584319974}, "probability": 0.010000000000000005, "p": 0.30855708946429855, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1108.3745109443307, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714579550967, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714579550967, "lastBetTime": 1714579306881, "lastCommentTime": 1711339522726, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He announced a program of seven races:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MSR", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "E3", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gent-Wevelgem", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RVV", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Paris-Roubaix", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amstel", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LBL", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves Yes if he takes the start of any additional races, not on that list. The race must be a UCI road race of .1 or higher classification.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Eliza%2F98b432b48bd7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "peloton-discord", "road-bicycle-racing"], "textDescription": "He announced a program of seven races:\n\nMSR\nE3\n\nGent-Wevelgem\n\nRVV\n\nParis-Roubaix\n\nAmstel\n\nLBL\n\nThis question resolves Yes if he takes the start of any additional races, not on that list. The race must be a UCI road race of .1 or higher classification."}, {"id": "CXdqSyi1zsqdC87SzkUD", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1697291916911, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697412492401, "question": "Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-721bc8a3e74d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-721bc8a3e74d", "pool": {"NO": 9994.499673221928, "YES": 72.61201469497868}, "probability": 0.9969047609861581, "p": 0.7005944799170063, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15151.006599407012, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697412515264, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697412393732, "lastBetTime": 1697412393462, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Rams win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cardinals win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["football", "nfl", "los-angeles-rams", "sports-default", "arizona-cardinals"], "textDescription": "Yes - Rams win\n\nNo - Cardinals win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "PL0k45QH9HBLCJICc1mI", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690229757212, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1690326000000, "question": "Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher July 25th Than July 24th?", "slug": "will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-j-2844cff19833", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-j-2844cff19833", "pool": {"NO": 489.2315609475168, "YES": 193.65949940190544}, "probability": 0.738382010997796, "p": 0.5276820344763851, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1255.7844653544919, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690331238826, "resolutionProbability": 0.74, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690331236154, "lastBetTime": 1690325360398, "lastCommentTime": 1690331233537, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JULY 24th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "$89.13", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F48TOM4R_Gu.png?alt=media&token=f7bf19b5-5299-4092-be14-86d80d293fe9", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nJULY 24th Close Value: $89.13\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "67Jn6csudgy2gY3AmgFJ", "creatorId": "nZK4wP7QoyMKzaW3tXsgTSM7Aix1", "creatorUsername": "AlexanderZ", "creatorName": "Alexander Zykin", "createdTime": 1693897013871, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAlexanderZykin%2FBKUToWWlmd.jpg?alt=media&token=c43d6e8d-a90a-4693-b9db-9fcd455bd9d5", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will ex-head of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, be killed or wounded in 2023 on Ukrainian front?", "slug": "will-exhead-of-roskosmos-dmitry-rog", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AlexanderZ/will-exhead-of-roskosmos-dmitry-rog", "pool": {"NO": 127.8062611888553, "YES": 950.487459261719}, "probability": 0.04538412879474088, "p": 0.2612103654812996, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 819.2644775963113, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704131302276, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "nZK4wP7QoyMKzaW3tXsgTSM7Aix1", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704131302623, "lastBetTime": 1703835905548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ex director of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin for more than a year is fighting on Ukrainian front. His positions are on Rabotyno/Tokmak , Zaporozhye direction.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are intense flight there happening recently.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will he be wounded or dead this year?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official report regarding wounded or death of Rogozin OR", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His personal telegram will become inactive by unknown reason", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://t.me/rogozin_do", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://t.me/rogozin_do", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "0556bd46-a1e4-4450-9682-03b882c26fe8", "url": "https://t.me/rogozin_do", "image": "https://cdn4.telegram-cdn.org/file/t54my1zcJnh1JzCBlpe2eycyZWGeOftcroS1Pz29lFog30b5ndlg2BTq5Vu0Gf9TBkHtuaOjTdR0QFGVb7a7d2JP4er_96mJEq7Vh-38fu6CaLxODgcXeL8hXUQ1fkUhnHnaRriwAy4wtSIZIFFIEpUUNBMm17Skgz4pj2zNbwzT02igZXFfA8k8BpXJjR5Tx-Ar0y2oMwJrvIZ7ZloUnv0TC_v82-DowaGB3phin2NEYHuplejzSfy9DClGMERbLY9so5KMoECaIr_3VTrW7GagKk-kTRVdczxe6KIdQIA74tzPXZHK_I1TGmp9PRq3XxRFffhSxzX56YzX-d9QWg.jpg", "title": "\u0420\u041e\u0413\u041e\u0417\u0418\u041d \u041d\u0410 \u0424\u0420\u041e\u041d\u0422\u0415", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "#\u0446\u0430\u0440\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0435\u0432\u043e\u043b\u043a\u0438", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "russia", "ukraine", "kosmos", "space", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Ex director of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin for more than a year is fighting on Ukrainian front. His positions are on Rabotyno/Tokmak , Zaporozhye direction.\n\nThere are intense flight there happening recently.\n\nWill he be wounded or dead this year?\n\nCriteria:\n\nOfficial report regarding wounded or death of Rogozin OR\n\nHis personal telegram will become inactive by unknown reason\n\nhttps://t.me/rogozin_do\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "gKz3w5O0ohYWtvyH0NBu", "creatorId": "hxTwwGUlW9aj4vGUZKceLtr5cJU2", "creatorUsername": "Rodeo", "creatorName": "Rodeo", "createdTime": 1679415873510, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRodeo%2FLK9MU6sQc8.58?alt=media&token=a3f23560-8200-4da7-835a-6131e3abb2f7", "closeTime": 1685678340000, "question": "Will Bryan Caplan concede his AI bet with Matthew Barnett by June 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-bryan-caplan-concede-his-ai-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-bryan-caplan-concede-his-ai-be", "pool": {"NO": 259.52958435799883, "YES": 64079.44486219365}, "probability": 0.0009412484938113932, "p": 0.18871928684875242, "totalLiquidity": 810, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 79621.81512077733, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1685679949281, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 42, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685664210264, "lastBetTime": 1685664208841, "lastCommentTime": 1685581505236, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this related market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-bryan-caplan-win-his-bet-with", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But it will also resolves \"Yes\" if Caplan 'concedes' early and pays Barnett or promises to.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"NO\" if they have not publicly resolved the bet by EOD June 1 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Matthew Barnett thinks the bet should have already resolved but Caplan has not conceded, it will still resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the above post of March 21, Caplan admits that GPT-4 getting an A on one of his exams is a big update and bodes ill for his bet. But he writes \"I\u2019m not conceding the bet, because I still think there\u2019s a 10-15% chance I win via luck.\" This market is about whether Caplan's luck will hold out for ~two more months.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2C17GgUX8a.png?alt=media&token=08721487-f087-4202-873b-343c42c2920f", "groupSlugs": ["technical-ai-timelines"], "textDescription": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if and when Bryan Caplan publicly concedes his AI bet with Matthew Barnett. \n\nThe central case would be Caplan declaring that the central bet criterion has been met, and that an AI has gotten an A on five out of six of his most recent midterm exams, as specified in Caplan's post and this related market. \n\nBut it will also resolves \"Yes\" if Caplan 'concedes' early and pays Barnett or promises to.\n\nThis market resolves to \"NO\" if they have not publicly resolved the bet by EOD June 1 2023.\n\nIf Matthew Barnett thinks the bet should have already resolved but Caplan has not conceded, it will still resolve NO.\n\nBackground:\n\nhttps://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an\n\nIn the above post of March 21, Caplan admits that GPT-4 getting an A on one of his exams is a big update and bodes ill for his bet. But he writes \"I\u2019m not conceding the bet, because I still think there\u2019s a 10-15% chance I win via luck.\" This market is about whether Caplan's luck will hold out for ~two more months."}, {"id": "JQ2ZyYFd1km7CsNKJGcv", "creatorId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "creatorUsername": "SemioticRivalry", "creatorName": "Semiotic Rivalry", "createdTime": 1709751941714, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSemioticRivalry%2Fpl2tzfEHMX.jpg?alt=media&token=1b7174ae-5d56-4d97-9b1c-6adfb2a3dfaf", "closeTime": 1717251236663, "question": "Will thousands of Rooster Teeth videos be deleted by June 1st?", "slug": "will-thousands-of-rooster-teeth-vid", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-thousands-of-rooster-teeth-vid", "pool": {"NO": 64.43791299266553, "YES": 548.216368395108}, "probability": 0.09752172505611376, "p": 0.4789869909244228, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 388.5604809339602, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717251236663, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717251236663, "lastBetTime": 1717206164196, "lastCommentTime": 1717206184229, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["youtube"], "textDescription": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/rooster-teeth-shut-down-warner-bros-discovery-roost-podcast-continue-1235847264/"}, {"id": "eM9i483o99N0uFxCW5hB", "creatorId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "creatorUsername": "egroj", "creatorName": "JAAM", "createdTime": 1669828480936, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjorge%2F6eta_wBPT5.png?alt=media&token=2d5f9149-6e77-4307-83f7-a770bebe9686", "closeTime": 1670101148469, "question": "Will Argentina eliminate Australia at the Round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "slug": "will-group-c-1st-place-eliminate-au", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-group-c-1st-place-eliminate-au", "pool": {"NO": 29701.001948902012, "YES": 294.3917790478642}, "probability": 0.9980553278349433, "p": 0.8357157941219764, "totalLiquidity": 750, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 41811.84018804827, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1670101148469, "resolutionProbability": 0.9980395728660477, "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670101316426, "lastBetTime": 1670101134252, "lastCommentTime": 1670101312482, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Argentina wins their match or ties and wins the penality shoot-out against Australia in their Round of 16 match.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 30, 4:22pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Group C 1st place eliminate Australia at the Round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Argentina eliminate Australia at the Round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdupjzT7jQW.png?alt=media&token=a3526466-c0c2-4e1f-a4d0-518b675853fb", "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Argentina wins their match or ties and wins the penality shoot-out against Australia in their Round of 16 match.\n\nNov 30, 4:22pm: Will Group C 1st place eliminate Australia at the Round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup? \u2192 Will Argentina eliminate Australia at the Round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?"}, {"id": "qR1gMIcdrNzsBWPAXsYj", "creatorId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "creatorUsername": "BoltonBailey", "creatorName": "Bolton Bailey", "createdTime": 1683234892004, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoltonBailey%2Fsandpile.gif?alt=media&token=0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103", "closeTime": 1710565140000, "question": "Will Dune: Part 2 have >70% on Rotten Tomatoes two weeks after release?", "slug": "will-dune-part-2-have-70-on-rotten", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-dune-part-2-have-70-on-rotten", "pool": {"NO": 9320.177094955758, "YES": 504.124085733945}, "probability": 0.9926240079734668, "p": 0.8792139079591165, "totalLiquidity": 750, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12748.789780233212, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710567317526, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "uniqueBettorCount": 42, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710567317747, "lastBetTime": 1710561766724, "lastCommentTime": 1706939301529, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tomatometer score.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment", "movies", "dune"], "textDescription": "Tomatometer score."}, {"id": "RHiOkz0298eGB0jiEQDP", "creatorId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "creatorUsername": "Quadrifold", "creatorName": "Quadrifold", "createdTime": 1705042201146, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FQuadrifold%2FcTzrvxzVzh.jpg?alt=media&token=9e568961-afd2-4374-9188-ddf20d36d83e", "closeTime": 1706278727862, "question": "Will the majority of judges at the ICJ vote in favour of South Africa's case against Israel?", "slug": "will-the-majority-of-judges-at-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Quadrifold/will-the-majority-of-judges-at-the", "pool": {"NO": 6124.877133690587, "YES": 235.37213512540075}, "probability": 0.9714344446896728, "p": 0.5665099978331842, "totalLiquidity": 990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24006.426970481123, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706278727862, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "SAHMugNTeUVlxgzaf3T7WfPkrRi2", "uniqueBettorCount": 57, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710448641034, "lastBetTime": 1706278706594, "lastCommentTime": 1708541623384, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " judges vote in favour = resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Abstension votes count as a vote against", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "15 judges", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the International Court of Justice:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaMAn-ZBmzg.webp?alt=media&token=b54e3d91-7a65-4912-8e0f-4906839afb3d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "More details here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "****It seems that the judges might be 17, as they'll have an additional one for each South Africa and Israel. In that case the majority of votes would need to be 9 out of 17. Nothing change re the title of the market btw.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Quadrifold%2F7462d9ab6c8d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "wars", "geopolitics", "international-affairs", "middle-east", "information-war", "south-africa", "brics", "icj"], "textDescription": "8 or more judges vote in favour = resolves YES\n\n*Abstension votes count as a vote against\n\nAll the 15 judges at the International Court of Justice:\n\n[image]More details here:\n\nhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel\n\n****It seems that the judges might be 17, as they'll have an additional one for each South Africa and Israel. In that case the majority of votes would need to be 9 out of 17. Nothing change re the title of the market btw."}, {"id": "o382cAQJ2XryLmBB7hPM", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623997141, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704882000000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-10 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-e1b15b0525af", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-e1b15b0525af", "pool": {"NO": 66.22651324711273, "YES": 119.99999999999997}, "probability": 0.04972946434505029, "p": 0.08661074449618103, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704920396819, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704920397116, "lastBetTime": 1704871079869, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-10 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-10 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=10", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=10", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fc0b8f2a2f280.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-10 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-10 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "HTA4htJDmbE8JR97GrkZ", "creatorId": "W5UwVm0ZZMersP5g1NarJhBvP1R2", "creatorUsername": "BrendanFinan", "creatorName": "Brendan Finan", "createdTime": 1683311727834, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrendanFinan%2FroeJ0vK3If.jpg?alt=media&token=eef97432-4cd8-48d2-9a45-6212ce41e009", "closeTime": 1695099540000, "question": "Will Ukraine Retake Control of One of These Eight Cities by September 15th?", "slug": "will-ukraine-retake-control-of-one", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BrendanFinan/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-one", "pool": {"NO": 144.78022571208425, "YES": 26298.48068433494}, "probability": 0.0020684229146533486, "p": 0.27351751101015054, "totalLiquidity": 1030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 45471.64799344603, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695247948209, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 48, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695069908862, "lastBetTime": 1695069908556, "lastCommentTime": 1687610296819, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The cities in question:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Seiveirodonetsk, Kreminna, Lysychansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Tokmak, Donetsk, or Svatove", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve with the same result, at the same time as its counterpart on Insight Prediction:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Insight market should resolve as \"Yes\" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " the train station \"Avtovokzal\" in Seiveirodonetsk, the intersection of R66 and \"Kosmonavta Titova Vulytsa\" in Kreminna, any part of \"Karl Marks street (Vulytsa)\" in Lysychansk, \"Donetsk (railroad) Station\" in Donetsk, the central train station in Melitopol, Azovstal station in Mariupol, the train station \"Verkniy Tokmak\" in Tokmak, or Svatove train station in Svatove.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQolnsYBFVE.png?alt=media&token=78b8a625-be01-4c61-bc1d-19525346fcf7", "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "insight-prediction"], "textDescription": "The cities in question:\nSeiveirodonetsk, Kreminna, Lysychansk, Melitopol, Mariupol, Tokmak, Donetsk, or Svatove\n\nThis market will resolve with the same result, at the same time as its counterpart on Insight Prediction:\nhttps://insightprediction.com/m/201557/will-ukraine-retake-control-of-seiveirodonetsk-kreminna-lysychansk-melitopol-mariupol-tokmak-donetsk-or-svatove-by-september-15th\n\nThe Insight market should resolve as \"Yes\" if, at any point in time before September 15th, 2023, Ukraine retakes control of any of the following central points in any of these cities, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW): the train station \"Avtovokzal\" in Seiveirodonetsk, the intersection of R66 and \"Kosmonavta Titova Vulytsa\" in Kreminna, any part of \"Karl Marks street (Vulytsa)\" in Lysychansk, \"Donetsk (railroad) Station\" in Donetsk, the central train station in Melitopol, Azovstal station in Mariupol, the train station \"Verkniy Tokmak\" in Tokmak, or Svatove train station in Svatove."}, {"id": "VOc1DwiCzV7FatpN34O7", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705398603154, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705467000000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-17 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-31110d8f5672", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-31110d8f5672", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13559322033898305, "p": 0.13559322033898305, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705519344518, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705519344794, "lastBetTime": 1705398610697, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-17 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-17 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fdbb9d6eace6a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-17 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-17 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "oRclpyaFNWRCBLbeORob", "creatorId": "zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2", "creatorUsername": "TenShino", "creatorName": "Punished Ten Shino", "createdTime": 1697732414782, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTenShino%2FJisHOe4pUV.jpg?alt=media&token=74f0ec08-a635-41ca-bbf5-dc271bcac725", "closeTime": 1705708740000, "question": "Will over 20 people die in France as a result of Islamic terrorism within the next three months?", "slug": "will-over-20-people-die-in-france-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-over-20-people-die-in-france-a", "pool": {"NO": 391.8864563975982, "YES": 14615.17218823236}, "probability": 0.003554594714092627, "p": 0.11741815530322953, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15435.452562493349, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705727341479, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705741868934, "lastBetTime": 1705705429819, "lastCommentTime": 1705741857006, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last friday a teacher was killed and two other staff members were injured as a result of a terror attack.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2023/10/14/france-on-highest-alert-as-islamist-terrorism-strikes-schools-again_6172911_7.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "France has raised its alert level to urgent terrorist alert, and in recent days major tourist attractions in France have been evacuated after terror alerts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If over 20 people die as a result of Islamic terrorism in France by close date this market resolves YES. French people dying outside of France as a result of islamic terrorism do not count for this market, but non-french people dying in France do.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["arabisraeli-conflict", "france", "europe", "terrorism"], "textDescription": "Last friday a teacher was killed and two other staff members were injured as a result of a terror attack.\nFrance has raised its alert level to urgent terrorist alert, and in recent days major tourist attractions in France have been evacuated after terror alerts.\n\nIf over 20 people die as a result of Islamic terrorism in France by close date this market resolves YES. French people dying outside of France as a result of islamic terrorism do not count for this market, but non-french people dying in France do.\n\n\nI will not bet on this market."}, {"id": "vsSExV02paS7IuFqTVOO", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1666860168979, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672527540000, "question": "Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2022?", "slug": "will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022", "pool": {"NO": 1288.6129391118675, "YES": 46779.16950057406}, "probability": 0.018478863130366882, "p": 0.405981132724916, "totalLiquidity": 5720, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 627572.7427387453, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672654283701, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 1499, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451959253, "lastBetTime": 1672527277075, "lastCommentTime": 1672590394303, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money market: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after October 27, 2022, and by December 31, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Here is the market for 2023:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "donald-trump", "twitter", "magaland", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "polymarket"], "textDescription": "real money market: https://polymarket.com/market/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2022\n\n---\n\nTwitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.\n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once after October 27, 2022, and by December 31, 2022, (11:59:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.\n\nPlease note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\n\n\nHere is the market for 2023:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/will-realdonaldtrump-tweet-in-2023)"}, {"id": "pqAknAGHK1vxftxihOh3", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1690833881043, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1690912800000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on August 1 than it did on July 31?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-august", "pool": {"NO": 150.43536099811766, "YES": 445.6059964745705}, "probability": 0.12999999999999987, "p": 0.3068139039048895, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 352.5852636983757, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690922487622, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690920565461, "lastBetTime": 1690911047468, "lastCommentTime": 1690920563180, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "20,594.93", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market is a test market. If people trade it I will continue it.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 leaderboard.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Q3 2023 (July/August/September)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st place - \u1e403,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd place - \u1e402,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3rd place - \u1e401,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th place = \u1e40500", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5th place - \u1e40250", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "83b5cdc4-27de-4c25-a0bd-a2d579586b06", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "S&P/TSX Composite Index Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill the TSX close higher on July 31 than it did on July 28?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest S&P/TSX Composite Index (OSPTX) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\nPrevious Close: $20,594.93\n\n\n\nThis market is a test market. If people trade it I will continue it.\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 leaderboard.\n\nQ3 2023 (July/August/September)\n\nPrizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:\n\n1st place - \u1e403,000\n\n2nd place - \u1e402,000\n\n3rd place - \u1e401,000\n\n4th place = \u1e40500\n\n5th place - \u1e40250\n\n@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "Q6s8HNSXIWEHI356YBHq", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1697475403606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1697511300000, "question": "Will W6 flight 2496 from Malta to Budapest on 2023-10-16 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?", "slug": "will-w6-flight-2496-from-malta-to-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-w6-flight-2496-from-malta-to-b", "pool": {"NO": 616.355421721619, "YES": 126.25075576746093}, "probability": 0.9964805204863105, "p": 0.9830495101516123, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 572, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697544717754, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697505955747, "lastBetTime": 1697505955427, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/2ukb2zs8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/2ukb2zs8", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/2ukb2zs8"}, {"id": "HXKgv8PqxtaCJjj8vpz7", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1704230455742, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709279940000, "question": "Will Crown Prince Frederik be publicly heckled with personal criticism before March 2024?", "slug": "will-crown-prince-frederik-be-publi-547ffcb549f5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-crown-prince-frederik-be-publi-547ffcb549f5", "pool": {"NO": 109.97000097683215, "YES": 733.1243624515661}, "probability": 0.08497077144689424, "p": 0.38236053214436966, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 800.7773031995122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709321684578, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709321684872, "lastBetTime": 1709257411439, "lastCommentTime": 1704230578940, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Margrethe, the longest-serving monarch in Europe, announced during her New Year\u2019s speech that she would abdicate her throne in January. Her eldest son, Crown Prince Frederik, will succeed her.\" (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/31/world/europe/denmark-queen-margrethe.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Kk0.b3Ku.43vMh42mdsCH&smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a protester verbally confronts or heckles Frederik with criticism about his character, personal behavior, or past conduct", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and the brush is", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "face-to-face with Frederik", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "and", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "the incident is reported on by at least one credible news organization or journalist", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "anytime between January 2nd and February 29th", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything that would NOT count:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An organized protest where Frederik is not present", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any non-verbal signage presented to Frederik", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Frederik is confronted with anti-monarchist language (i.e. opposition to the monarchy system in general), rather than criticism specific to him", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An incident that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "isn't ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "covered by a news organization or journalist; i.e. if we only know about it through a  social media post (unless the social media post is by a journalist, in which case I would resolve YES)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I might bet on this one", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/OllieG%2F93b04fab76cd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["queensland", "queen", "entertainment", "politics-default", "europe", "denmark", "popular-culture", "royalty", "danish-politics"], "textDescription": "\"Margrethe, the longest-serving monarch in Europe, announced during her New Year\u2019s speech that she would abdicate her throne in January. Her eldest son, Crown Prince Frederik, will succeed her.\" (source)\n\nResolves YES if:\n\na protester verbally confronts or heckles Frederik with criticism about his character, personal behavior, or past conduct\n\nand the brush is face-to-face with Frederik\n\nand the incident is reported on by at least one credible news organization or journalist\n\nanytime between January 2nd and February 29th\n\nAnything that would NOT count:\n\nAn organized protest where Frederik is not present\n\nAny non-verbal signage presented to Frederik\n\nFrederik is confronted with anti-monarchist language (i.e. opposition to the monarchy system in general), rather than criticism specific to him\n\nAn incident that isn't covered by a news organization or journalist; i.e. if we only know about it through a  social media post (unless the social media post is by a journalist, in which case I would resolve YES)\n\nI might bet on this one"}, {"id": "T63lbsUIZpIYxh9kyfKn", "creatorId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "creatorUsername": "Kronopath", "creatorName": "Kronopath", "createdTime": 1683851476093, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiFA_cmkxQLkd1vmxPB96iPeUZyz47VricbU4GDVA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will Nintendo release a physical cartridge for Pok\u00e9mon Scarlet/Violet with DLC included in 2023?", "slug": "will-nintendo-release-a-physical-ca", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Kronopath/will-nintendo-release-a-physical-ca", "pool": {"NO": 226.1101899160844, "YES": 1740.2503559033205}, "probability": 0.05000000000000005, "p": 0.288295426203824, "totalLiquidity": 420, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4802.180065673019, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704071897341, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "Xwq5UdgdzQVJQSNsomfgQK4KbXQ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704071897657, "lastBetTime": 1702923243130, "lastCommentTime": 1704071881902, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pok\u00e9mon Sword and Shield", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " received a two-part paid DLC \"Expansion Pass\". The first part, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Isle of Armor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", released in June 2020, and the second part, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Crown Tundra", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", released in October 2020. In November 2020, they then released new physical cartridges that each include the base game (either ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sword", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Shield", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ") and both DLC packs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo has recently announced that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Pok\u00e9mon Scarlet and Violet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " will similarly be receiving a two-part paid DLC, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "The Hidden Treasure of Area Zero", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://scarletviolet.pokemon.com/en-gb/dlc/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ",  with ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Part 1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " releasing in Fall 2023 and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Part 2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in Winter 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"Yes\" if a cartridge version of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Pok\u00e9mon Scarlet and Violet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " with both DLC parts included is made available for purchase before the end of 2023. It resolves to \"No\" if no such cartridge is released or made available for purchase by the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This still resolves to \"No\" even if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The aforementrioned cartridge is announced but isn't made available for purchase before 2024, or", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo instead releases some kind of bundle deal where the cartridge still contains only the base game but comes with a code to download the DLC.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2SdvoBS8-d.png?alt=media&token=ecf9a867-254a-4724-92b0-e6ea74b1855d", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "nintendo", "pokemon", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Pok\u00e9mon Sword and Shield received a two-part paid DLC \"Expansion Pass\". The first part, The Isle of Armor, released in June 2020, and the second part, The Crown Tundra, released in October 2020. In November 2020, they then released new physical cartridges that each include the base game (either Sword or Shield) and both DLC packs.\n\nNintendo has recently announced that Pok\u00e9mon Scarlet and Violet will similarly be receiving a two-part paid DLC, The Hidden Treasure of Area Zero,  with Part 1 releasing in Fall 2023 and Part 2 in Winter 2023.\n\nThis market resolves to \"Yes\" if a cartridge version of Pok\u00e9mon Scarlet and Violet with both DLC parts included is made available for purchase before the end of 2023. It resolves to \"No\" if no such cartridge is released or made available for purchase by the end of the year.\n\nThis still resolves to \"No\" even if:\n\nThe aforementrioned cartridge is announced but isn't made available for purchase before 2024, or\n\nNintendo instead releases some kind of bundle deal where the cartridge still contains only the base game but comes with a code to download the DLC."}, {"id": "PTyA2MF5q6TgeoCrVv0i", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708646809054, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1711427774434, "question": "Will \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (\ud83d\udc7b) gross >$35M on its opening weekend?", "slug": "will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202", "pool": {"NO": 19227.829201258544, "YES": 34.488692382508816}, "probability": 0.9993123960704661, "p": 0.7227467020211581, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20143.68863312456, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711427774434, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711427958785, "lastBetTime": 1711427767460, "lastCommentTime": 1711427958255, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (2024) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\" (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4513678/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " would have been $44,008,406.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, AFAIK, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "typically", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" is the sequel to \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\", and is the fifth film in the Ghostbusters franchise (see: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "label": "mattyb"}}, {"text": " 's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-be", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on whether it'll be the lowest WW grossing in the franchise). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F02b00b7fcb82.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "hollywood", "television-film", "boxoffice", "entertainment", "movies", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" (2024) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.\n\nSource: The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/ will be used to resolve this market. \n\nI will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\" (2021) would have been $44,008,406.\n\nFor context, AFAIK, typically that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.\n\n\"Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire\" is the sequel to \"Ghostbusters: Afterlife\", and is the fifth film in the Ghostbusters franchise (see: @mattyb 's market on whether it'll be the lowest WW grossing in the franchise). \n\n"}, {"id": "G56iydYYkREPcSEluqDg", "creatorId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "creatorUsername": "Agh", "creatorName": "Agh", "createdTime": 1707863153084, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAghgg2%2FIjSFdFdbHO.jpg?alt=media&token=7fcbf9aa-3d8e-4b3a-896a-92c3aadf6a66", "closeTime": 1708370468335, "question": "Will Vaush make a \"big response video\" to the h3h3 attacks within the next 44 days?", "slug": "will-vaush-make-a-big-response-vide", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-vaush-make-a-big-response-vide", "pool": {"NO": 543.1745185268587, "YES": 259.561613795577}, "probability": 0.8223725611978971, "p": 0.6887042814627687, "totalLiquidity": 340.25, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 521.8868454717233, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708370468335, "resolutionProbability": 0.82, "resolverId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708370468911, "lastBetTime": 1708347723896, "lastCommentTime": 1708370450074, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Drama YouTuber h3h3 made multiple videos attacking Vaush for his questionable views and his recently exposed affinity for loli and horse porn. Vaush is now promising a big response video ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1757487231663845824"}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vaush has to upload the video by the end of March 27th. It has to be a dedicated response video where he addresses multiple of his accusations. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's some subjectivity here, if he just uploads a cut of his livestream where he aimlessly rambles for an hour it doesn't count. A recut livestream would only make this market resolve yes, if it is apparent that Vaush put significant effort into the response.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Agh%2F09c463b00bf8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["h3h3", "vaush", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "Background\n\nDrama YouTuber h3h3 made multiple videos attacking Vaush for his questionable views and his recently exposed affinity for loli and horse porn. Vaush is now promising a big response video \n\n[tweet]Resolution Criteria\n\nVaush has to upload the video by the end of March 27th. It has to be a dedicated response video where he addresses multiple of his accusations. \n\nThere's some subjectivity here, if he just uploads a cut of his livestream where he aimlessly rambles for an hour it doesn't count. A recut livestream would only make this market resolve yes, if it is apparent that Vaush put significant effort into the response."}, {"id": "yWjkmeCqSWfsoGOheBl1", "creatorId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "creatorUsername": "egroj", "creatorName": "JAAM", "createdTime": 1666102016153, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjorge%2F6eta_wBPT5.png?alt=media&token=2d5f9149-6e77-4307-83f7-a770bebe9686", "closeTime": 1671051474706, "question": "Will a previous host of the FIFA World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "slug": "will-a-previous-host-of-the-world-c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-previous-host-of-the-world-c", "pool": {"NO": 21311.807488199844, "YES": 57.35414682544433}, "probability": 0.9989150302580365, "p": 0.7124568123597916, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24026.01319877392, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671051474706, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671051466253, "lastBetTime": 1671051466144, "lastCommentTime": 1670625273432, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So far all nations that have won the World Cup final have also hosted the tournament at some point.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if the FIFA 2022 World Cup champion is a nation that has previously hosted the World Cup", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 18, 10:22am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a previous host of the World Cup win the World Cup?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a previous host of the FIFA World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "So far all nations that have won the World Cup final have also hosted the tournament at some point.\n\nResolves YES if the FIFA 2022 World Cup champion is a nation that has previously hosted the World Cup\n\nOct 18, 10:22am: Will a previous host of the World Cup win the World Cup? \u2192 Will a previous host of the FIFA World Cup win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?"}, {"id": "1kw5oajkv3sxhrRFgR9C", "creatorId": "IvjpLocyMIfl1CYkCmo6i56NIMQ2", "creatorUsername": "Athena", "creatorName": "Athena", "createdTime": 1645562949117, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJonathan%2FcropSmartSelect_20200921-114536_Instagram.jpg?alt=media&token=6ecddaca-906e-4685-8c79-532017256ef0", "closeTime": 1645646400000, "question": "Will shares of Tesla close at or above $850 on February 23rd, 2022?", "slug": "will-shares-of-tesla-close-at-or-ab", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Athena/will-shares-of-tesla-close-at-or-ab", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.006149175898616676, "p": 0.006149175898616676, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10629.355239989836, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1645650658973, "resolutionProbability": 0.006149175898616676, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1645562949117, "lastCommentTime": 1645633152989, "description": "This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $850 each at 4:00 PM ET on February 23rd, 2022 according to the Webull stock app.\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 2:00 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 10:00 am\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm\n\nFeb 22, 3:58pm: Trying to fix the close time, I think it is just displaying wrong. It should be 3pm EST.", "textDescription": "This market resolves to 'YES' if shares of Tesla stock ($TSLA, listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange) close at or above a price of $850 each at 4:00 PM ET on February 23rd, 2022 according to the Webull stock app.\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 2:00 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 10:00 am\n\nClose date updated to 2022-02-23 3:00 pm\n\nFeb 22, 3:58pm: Trying to fix the close time, I think it is just displaying wrong. It should be 3pm EST."}, {"id": "OytIkTCsg82WZYkzAnN7", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1698606959444, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1699153200000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Georgia Southern beat Texas State?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-georgia-southern-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-georgia-southern-b", "pool": {"NO": 5.701784636392318, "YES": 438.4592122339129}, "probability": 0.01283720244814119, "p": 0.4999999999999998, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 459.02745066119144, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699168423160, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699139260158, "lastBetTime": 1699139260015, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-04 at 7 PM ET in San Marcos, TX", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football"], "textDescription": "2023-11-04 at 7 PM ET in San Marcos, TX"}, {"id": "uN6HcSFk4bfpx5W5oRsz", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707516968616, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708113600000, "question": "Will Amazon close higher than 174.45 on February 16?", "slug": "will-amazon-close-higher-than-17445", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-amazon-close-higher-than-17445", "pool": {"NO": 55.92773273969186, "YES": 555.3870967741937}, "probability": 0.04189930983759315, "p": 0.3027833734782172, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 447, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708122298264, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708122298599, "lastBetTime": 1708113173818, "lastCommentTime": 1708122277644, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amazon.com Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Amazon+Stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investing Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/amazon-com-inc-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMZN closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST on Feb 16", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than stated price.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fae8428e00cd2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "world-default", "keen-stocks", "finance", "technology-default", "stocks", "economics-default", "entertainment", "stocks-league-beta", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Amazon.com Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data\n\nAMZN closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 16\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "e4kFMv6iHn345Tnjfjz4", "creatorId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "creatorUsername": "cash", "creatorName": "cshunter", "createdTime": 1697655720996, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fconnorcash%2F1AwgT_fRqZ.jpg?alt=media&token=a534da3f-a624-4ba5-a8e4-4df3e286b14e", "closeTime": 1698274925914, "question": "Will a new Speaker of the US House of Representatives be elected before the end of October 25th?", "slug": "will-a-new-speaker-of-the-us-house-2bcdacce3dee", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-a-new-speaker-of-the-us-house-2bcdacce3dee", "pool": {"NO": 18796.592089743957, "YES": 243.48101920820503}, "probability": 0.9975575645155439, "p": 0.8410313995656546, "totalLiquidity": 990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21760.757371046893, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698274925914, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 50, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698274909302, "lastBetTime": 1698274073145, "lastCommentTime": 1698274908540, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kevin McCarthy was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ousted as Speaker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Kevin_McCarthy", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of the United States House of Representatives on October 3rd. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Efforts to elect a Speaker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " are entering their third week.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a new Speaker be elected by the end of Wednesday, October 25th (EST)?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "speaker-of-the-house-election", "118th-congress"], "textDescription": "Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives on October 3rd. Efforts to elect a Speaker are entering their third week.\n\nWill a new Speaker be elected by the end of Wednesday, October 25th (EST)?"}, {"id": "dIVetm4aiMlObgFAFCf2", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705954217113, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706078700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-24 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e4dfbad0cc29", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e4dfbad0cc29", "pool": {"NO": 73.54565608799037, "YES": 54.17186415797207}, "probability": 0.22000000000000006, "p": 0.17201532190851515, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14.51091427714363, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706174767986, "resolutionProbability": 0.22, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706174768221, "lastBetTime": 1706068337578, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-24 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-24 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=24", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=24", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F0b15f3045cfa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-24 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-24 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "5YDjs4ES97HgBhCj4rkC", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1699401192858, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will @SirSalty push a change that is destructive to Manifold Markets A Second Time By End Of 2023?", "slug": "will-sirsalty-push-a-change-that-is-f8b160c9f4d5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-sirsalty-push-a-change-that-is-f8b160c9f4d5", "pool": {"NO": 57.64525475079745, "YES": 1387.0567466030118}, "probability": 0.013062017241397451, "p": 0.24153775393094692, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1276.9432533969882, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704120234564, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704120235119, "lastBetTime": 1704068993357, "lastCommentTime": 1704120229608, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This Is A Continuation & Duplication Originally Created By", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirSalty/will-i-push-a-change-that-is-destru", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "label": "SirSalty"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close and resolve on January 1st, 2024 ; If For Any Reason Within The First 7 Days Of 2024 It Is Found That This Market Should Re-Resolve, It Will Accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "THIS IS FROM HIS PREVIOUS LISTING (A STATEMENT AND RESOLUTION CRITERIA):", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've recently started coding with the help of GPT. I have essentially 0 background in programming aside from 3 months of using python to do trivial plotting in a biology course a few years ago.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "That being said, I have started to become more familiar with a lot of technical terms due to being surrounded by a team of SWEs. And have had some help from the team with setting up my environment. Most of the code itself and problem-solving for errors were done by myself and GPT.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Some things I've done in the past week in probably a total of 6-8 hours since I've started, include:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adding \"view all users\" to the omnisearch", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adding the ability to query users by the slug on the all-users page.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creating scripts to export various email lists as a .csv from our database depending on certain field conditions.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creating a script that swaps a specific creator's unlisted markets to listed.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The probability of this market should be both a reflection of how far I can take coding using GPT to teach me as well as my incompetence.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Things that count as destructive include:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leaking some private key, user information etc.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Taking down the entire site", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cause some significant part of Manifold to stop functioning at all (eg live feed returns an error when trying to render. Causing some bug that changes the functionality from desired does not count).", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EXTENDED MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-sirsalty-push-a-change-that-is", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "chatgpt", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "technology-default", "bugs", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This Is A Continuation & Duplication Originally Created By @SirSalty \n\nThis market will close and resolve on January 1st, 2024 ; If For Any Reason Within The First 7 Days Of 2024 It Is Found That This Market Should Re-Resolve, It Will Accordingly.\n\nTHIS IS FROM HIS PREVIOUS LISTING (A STATEMENT AND RESOLUTION CRITERIA):\n\nI've recently started coding with the help of GPT. I have essentially 0 background in programming aside from 3 months of using python to do trivial plotting in a biology course a few years ago.\n\nThat being said, I have started to become more familiar with a lot of technical terms due to being surrounded by a team of SWEs. And have had some help from the team with setting up my environment. Most of the code itself and problem-solving for errors were done by myself and GPT.\n\nSome things I've done in the past week in probably a total of 6-8 hours since I've started, include:\n\nAdding \"view all users\" to the omnisearch\n\nAdding the ability to query users by the slug on the all-users page.\n\nCreating scripts to export various email lists as a .csv from our database depending on certain field conditions.\n\nCreating a script that swaps a specific creator's unlisted markets to listed.\n\nThe probability of this market should be both a reflection of how far I can take coding using GPT to teach me as well as my incompetence.\n\nThings that count as destructive include:\n\nLeaking some private key, user information etc.\n\nTaking down the entire site\n\nCause some significant part of Manifold to stop functioning at all (eg live feed returns an error when trying to render. Causing some bug that changes the functionality from desired does not count).\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nEXTENDED MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-sirsalty-push-a-change-that-is)"}, {"id": "SwswUGBsdAaNP2EpYjN8", "creatorId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "creatorUsername": "citrinitas", "creatorName": "Anton Paquin", "createdTime": 1699162346104, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAntonPaquin%2Fseed2915_09.png?alt=media&token=42a39c65-222a-4f5e-9afb-e0ee9de88cd8", "closeTime": 1699162366596, "question": "Noa wins vs mike", "slug": "noa-wins-vs-mike", "url": "https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/noa-wins-vs-mike", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.5, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699162366596, "resolutionProbability": 0.5, "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699162346104, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "u8KtWyZ0ormKvJs81KTi", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1698605916893, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1699126880746, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Jacksonville State beat South Carolina?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-jacksonville-state-0435a174c782", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-jacksonville-state-0435a174c782", "pool": {"NO": 1.8518518518518476, "YES": 1349.9999999999995}, "probability": 0.0013698630136986304, "p": 0.5000000000000006, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1614.1801091256284, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699126880746, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699126702201, "lastBetTime": 1699126702077, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-04 at 12 PM ET in Columbia, SC", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "sec"], "textDescription": "2023-11-04 at 12 PM ET in Columbia, SC"}, {"id": "g4Mr5uUf8egdLnCJvCGF", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1710808622602, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1710889200000, "question": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "slug": "-crypto-how-will-basic-attention-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-crypto-how-will-basic-attention-to", "pool": {"NO": 113.64918589131936, "YES": 175.60873566386098}, "probability": 0.3600179056555255, "p": 0.4650211338926848, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 48.67872778248403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710902691712, "resolutionProbability": 0.36, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710889200000, "lastBetTime": 1710871470558, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = HIGHER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = LOWER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basic Attention Token BAT/USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/basic-attention-token", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/basic-attention-token/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-marketdaily", "basic-attention-token", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Basic Attention Token Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?\n\nYES = HIGHER\nNO = LOWER\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)\n\nThis market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)\n\nThe official source used is *Coingecko\n\nBasic Attention Token BAT/USD\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko at the end of the day.\n\nEach option resolves independent of the others.\n\nIf a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n\n"}, {"id": "Ljq342L53Ohf3iCVaDUQ", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1708138206115, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714622389950, "question": "Will Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET", "slug": "will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-31c430ddeea9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-elon-musk-make-2-or-more-tweet-31c430ddeea9", "pool": {"NO": 1.9017398596496662, "YES": 515.8545694458559}, "probability": 0.013276775100170717, "p": 0.7849386789348882, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2041.1190466334713, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714660845180, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714622389950, "lastBetTime": 1714619705202, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "!!!Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NA if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/elonmusk", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a report header.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F8bf0b5343f77.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tweeter"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if Elon Musk make 2 or more Tweeter(X) posts on May 01, 2024 between 9am to 9pm ET \n!!!Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count!!! \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nResolves NA if I was unable to verify if Elon Musk tweeted 2 or more times during the stated period \n\nhttps://twitter.com/elonmusk\nNote: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a report header."}, {"id": "Jo0yqOpoQNLSnsdVf6Dr", "creatorId": "kbHiTAGBahXdX9Z4sW29JpNrB0l2", "creatorUsername": "Ernie", "creatorName": "Ernie", "createdTime": 1697736568866, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStrayClimb%2FfFdjzywOTA.jpg?alt=media&token=f61be426-ce94-43e0-8761-3d26c24f8466", "closeTime": 1698978278172, "question": "Will there be a mistrial in the current Sam Bankman-Fried trial?", "slug": "mistrial-in-current-sam-bankmanfrie", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ernie/mistrial-in-current-sam-bankmanfrie", "pool": {"NO": 80.76971695335838, "YES": 1030.542528158701}, "probability": 0.024643624831369372, "p": 0.24378369553177917, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1025.1530346552204, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698978278172, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698978218217, "lastBetTime": 1698973025692, "lastCommentTime": 1698978216517, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This refers to a mistrial on all counts.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sbf-trial"], "textDescription": "EDIT:\n\nThis refers to a mistrial on all counts."}, {"id": "jaOXe9puQhdzNUwMsJ3y", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704920311433, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705035000000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-01-12 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-1f9e889b07d3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-1f9e889b07d3", "pool": {"NO": 106.67544346759931, "YES": 126.31000134938549}, "probability": 0.13045982090343777, "p": 0.15084985425062758, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 70.03456217732122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705151095414, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705151095642, "lastBetTime": 1704987646257, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-12 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-12 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=01&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F9060a0a18a76.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-12 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-12 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "USV4YwuWt6YEjUDGNDWe", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116664044, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704382500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-04 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-7819d2b0f17e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-7819d2b0f17e", "pool": {"NO": 101.03498296181681, "YES": 203.27845945320664}, "probability": 0.05999999999999995, "p": 0.11380753990607531, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 164.272699695767, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704396099831, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704396100114, "lastBetTime": 1704381008143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-04 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F5423cb18cb89.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-04 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-04 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "R9riGIgxWPq92dWhDjPU", "creatorId": "036NnBq0D2WHPnjlra9btM7A9323", "creatorUsername": "Geo", "creatorName": "Geo", "createdTime": 1691611665095, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAustinCary%2FgB5ZHS_Y33.png?alt=media&token=d28751fc-de3a-4221-adff-58ea13107c9a", "closeTime": 1693099219815, "question": "Will the New York Empire win the 2023 AUDL championships?", "slug": "will-the-new-york-empire-win-the-20", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Geo/will-the-new-york-empire-win-the-20", "pool": {"NO": 246.21606943570487, "YES": 136.5311040037081}, "probability": 0.8897453799115549, "p": 0.817348543188836, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1178.7685126798394, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693099244593, "resolutionProbability": 0.89, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693088191487, "lastBetTime": 1693088191381, "lastCommentTime": 1693072946055, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://theaudl.com/league/championshipweekend12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://theaudl.com/league/championshipweekend12", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "c98137cd-6430-43e1-bbf1-841c855091d6", "url": "https://theaudl.com/league/championshipweekend12", "image": "https://theaudl.com/themes/AUDL_theme/css/images/headers/SITE-logo-AUDL-2.png", "title": "AUDL Championship Weekend 12", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Location and Dates TCO Stadium at Viking Lakes \u2013 Eagan, MN Friday, August 25 \u2013 Saturday, August 26, 2023 Overview Join the AUDL in an action-packed weekend crowning the new 2023 AUDL Champion! Witness top-tier competition and participate in fan-focused fun for the ultimate disc weekend. On Friday, August 25th catch both semifinal games. The first game starts at 5:00 PM CT and", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "https://theaudl.com/league/championshipweekend12\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "UcA04gtafnZdGomcdrTd", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701105279715, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701187200000, "question": "Will Lufthansa close higher november 28th than the close of november 27th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-24ff0454cab5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-24ff0454cab5", "pool": {"NO": 654.1910427030598, "YES": 65.814777813825}, "probability": 0.9570671791273693, "p": 0.6916153273411679, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 752.9039258196303, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701191528256, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222345094, "lastBetTime": 1701186693846, "lastCommentTime": 1701191524260, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FpRUKu7vTDp.png?alt=media&token=26876226-81c9-4dee-851a-d06484ecba70", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "f1XHEVMh0D8ILKftBLSY", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1695276687377, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1698927500709, "question": "Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 2nd November meeting?", "slug": "will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5", "pool": {"NO": 665.0566290932184, "YES": 99765.7171771224}, "probability": 0.002952175473686665, "p": 0.30756057629772576, "totalLiquidity": 3160.25, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 110768.76959405054, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698927500709, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 88, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698943542024, "lastBetTime": 1698927490897, "lastCommentTime": 1698943540237, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Bank of England meets on 2nd November to set interest rates.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jRjfVptWevnqATH3mzdr", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bx74KAwrp9IqbuX83ROw", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-76b36fd55025"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "fla8Hhr6h6V0w1AbZBmh", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-ad28900565c7", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "gdp", "economics-default", "uk", "bank-of-england", "uk-economic-data", "subsidy-spotlight"], "textDescription": "The Bank of England meets on 2nd November to set interest rates.\n\nThe market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.\n\nThe market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it.\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-76b36fd55025 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac \u200c"}, {"id": "eDe0iraI3o4KJXm2z71S", "creatorId": "k5xMMXRPNNPY5prI5T2jaenfjPS2", "creatorUsername": "figo", "creatorName": "Figo", "createdTime": 1700518214138, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffigo%2Fp5gC4yp65e.png?alt=media&token=5aa3a5a4-70a7-45f9-9806-eebf1b40e2dd", "closeTime": 1701125940000, "question": "Is the OpenAI situation the first illustration of AGI outsmarting humans?", "slug": "is-the-openai-situation-the-first-i", "url": "https://manifold.markets/figo/is-the-openai-situation-the-first-i", "pool": {"NO": 271.4130318635456, "YES": 1581.4653000240442}, "probability": 0.019243993827737123, "p": 0.10260040444787048, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2157.4755187213136, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701125967677, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701101750886, "lastBetTime": 1701101750710, "lastCommentTime": 1700617431082, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clearly how OpenAI played out was impossible to foresee for humans like us, but is it the first illustration of an AGI (a secret one by OpenAI's or one from any other organization) proving that it can outsmart all of humanity to achieve its goals?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve YES if at close date the market is at more than 75%, NO if it is below 25% and NA in between.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note that if the AGI did all of this to sabotage OpenAI because its mission is to help humanity and it realized that OpenAI was on track to destroy it, it still counts as outsmarting humans.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai", "openai", "agi", "ai-doom", "fun", "keynesian-beauty-contest-a9436f93bd6c"], "textDescription": "Clearly how OpenAI played out was impossible to foresee for humans like us, but is it the first illustration of an AGI (a secret one by OpenAI's or one from any other organization) proving that it can outsmart all of humanity to achieve its goals?\n\nI will resolve YES if at close date the market is at more than 75%, NO if it is below 25% and NA in between.\n\nNote that if the AGI did all of this to sabotage OpenAI because its mission is to help humanity and it realized that OpenAI was on track to destroy it, it still counts as outsmarting humans."}, {"id": "HMmQ4GUo0SWBJoYZ9PAX", "creatorId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "creatorUsername": "wilsonkime", "creatorName": "Wilson Kime", "createdTime": 1688416929149, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwilsonkime%2F-5BFN4xL60.png?alt=media&token=9df750be-56e2-4d9a-97e6-3b1946ddd776", "closeTime": 1701791888302, "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of petitioners in Acheson Hotels v. Laufer?", "slug": "will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-38913809e090", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-38913809e090", "pool": {"NO": 63.145701189158736, "YES": 239.66643786103882}, "probability": 0.1875136207387062, "p": 0.46693723612941906, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 474.91828705070316, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701791888302, "resolutionProbability": 0.19, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701791957476, "lastBetTime": 1701791838282, "lastCommentTime": 1701791956807, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At issue in this case is whether a self-appointed Americans with Disabilities Act \u201ctester\u201d has Article III standing to challenge a place of public accommodation\u2019s failure to provide disability accessibility information on its website, even if she lacks any intention of visiting that place of public accommodation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ADA requires disabilty accessibility, and several people, termed \"testers\" have sued places that do not provide accessibility information on their websites. This question asks if they have standing to sue if they do not have any intention of visiting. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "More info ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/acheson-hotels-llc-v-laufer/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/acheson-hotels-llc-v-laufer/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ad64fc6d-4984-4a48-8545-4d3591eb0462", "url": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/acheson-hotels-llc-v-laufer/", "image": "https://g.twimg.com/Twitter_logo_blue.png", "title": "Acheson Hotels, LLC v. Laufer - SCOTUSblog", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Independent News and Analysis on the U.S. Supreme Court", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics"], "textDescription": "At issue in this case is whether a self-appointed Americans with Disabilities Act \u201ctester\u201d has Article III standing to challenge a place of public accommodation\u2019s failure to provide disability accessibility information on its website, even if she lacks any intention of visiting that place of public accommodation.\n\nThe ADA requires disabilty accessibility, and several people, termed \"testers\" have sued places that do not provide accessibility information on their websites. This question asks if they have standing to sue if they do not have any intention of visiting. \nMore info https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/acheson-hotels-llc-v-laufer/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "u8gGax0wyEsNiEbWxdG9", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705462668027, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712109766688, "question": "Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary?", "slug": "will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-80e177ff9c2d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-get-more-vote-than-80e177ff9c2d", "pool": {"NO": 19448.92399636881, "YES": 44.47818018003818}, "probability": 0.9993442407627772, "p": 0.777042276905563, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 19526.691281978103, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712109766688, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712109766688, "lastBetTime": 1712109762625, "lastCommentTime": 1712109742082, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary was cancaled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F0e6f53f66e4d.jpg", "textDescription": "Resolves N/A if the 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary was cancaled"}, {"id": "uzwlgriujZYspcNLZeH4", "creatorId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "creatorUsername": "cc6", "creatorName": "cc6 \u2660\ufe0e", "createdTime": 1701846138005, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcc6%2FFXQHTwMJNO.jpeg?alt=media&token=c7981739-7a1f-4c5c-bdd1-f7270eef5cfe", "closeTime": 1709884303440, "question": "Will I get accepted to the University of Waterloo?", "slug": "will-i-get-accepted-to-the-universi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cc6/will-i-get-accepted-to-the-universi", "pool": {"NO": 5274.748329265925, "YES": 55.15729336665572}, "probability": 0.9933856892922626, "p": 0.6109687510136192, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 41680.36128434392, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709884303440, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "vPuZEsvT9VSFFke5h5TQaEkHWdo2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709886063027, "lastBetTime": 1709884292806, "lastCommentTime": 1709886062485, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reasons why I will get in:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My SAT is 1560 ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have taken advanced college level classes such as", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multivariable Calculus", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Linear Algebra", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have taken some APs and gotten scores of 4 or above on all of them", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Calculus BC", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Biology", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Physics C: Mechanics", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Computer Science", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Statistics", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My GPA is 3.9, which is within the range of admitted applicants. My school is also pretty difficult compared to the average US public school", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reasons why I won't get in:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a high school junior, applying one year early", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I only started the application recently, and the deadlines are pretty close (deadline is in February)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm applying for Computer Science and Math (both are probably competitive)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm from the United States (so I'm international)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EC information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fencing: my peak rank was 26th in the country", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fencing related blog with 6k views", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "National level fencing referee (refereed at National Championships, Junior Olympics)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Team captain for math competition at school", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top 300 women in United States at speedcubing", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Internship at startup company where I wrote code that helped them get new clients", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Published puzzle in math magazine", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Compete in chess", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Should I put Manifold on here????", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Awards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2x National Latin Exam Gold ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AP Scholar with Distinction", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10th place at national fencing tournament in my age group with ~160 competitors", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Honorable mention at Berkeley Math Tournament", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMC 8 Honor Roll", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Various medals at local and regional fencing tournaments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/cc6/d563448c023f.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=dboRfLvzKkccHo2HrJrvbzbPI86gpxXF333DtkA5q4aDRK7lBV3yrmyl1dBjUb8rqe7XFiNZXZ1m%2F74icmXF754vv3yZf7zixXylhTn3Lzfh7IAFh6eoM%2BG%2FYMJ3TIDhOmA51hMwqg86ppo%2BjtHUdeyg%2BrwdxA4hx60topzZCadNg1sAcKGFjZ26irTVHVgkOiojNSCFGLRbFZ6EqSB4Ivp3IH6A8Hhmrt2ipIc63DZzKrn04LYL8UpdqbNIIt7DJe9eZvi8SphORGkGx48QdajH%2F%2Fqfqh3pW4voBPgvhZbYFo3vfNyduj%2BA9UDlnLEwWjuT8ZSaqSo%2F0wjmLnti9A%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["colleges-universities", "college-admissions"], "textDescription": "Reasons why I will get in:\n\nMy SAT is 1560 \n\nI have taken advanced college level classes such as\n\nMultivariable Calculus\n\nLinear Algebra\n\nI have taken some APs and gotten scores of 4 or above on all of them\n\nAP Calculus BC\n\nAP Biology\n\nAP Physics C: Mechanics\n\nAP Computer Science\n\nAP Statistics\n\nMy GPA is 3.9, which is within the range of admitted applicants. My school is also pretty difficult compared to the average US public school\n\nReasons why I won't get in:\n\nI'm a high school junior, applying one year early\n\nI only started the application recently, and the deadlines are pretty close (deadline is in February)\n\nI'm applying for Computer Science and Math (both are probably competitive)\n\nI'm from the United States (so I'm international)\n\nEC information:\n\nFencing: my peak rank was 26th in the country\n\nFencing related blog with 6k views\n\nNational level fencing referee (refereed at National Championships, Junior Olympics)\n\nTeam captain for math competition at school\n\nTop 300 women in United States at speedcubing\n\nInternship at startup company where I wrote code that helped them get new clients\n\nPublished puzzle in math magazine\n\nCompete in chess\n\nShould I put Manifold on here????\n\nAwards\n\n2x National Latin Exam Gold \n\nAP Scholar with Distinction\n\n10th place at national fencing tournament in my age group with ~160 competitors\n\nHonorable mention at Berkeley Math Tournament\n\nAMC 8 Honor Roll\n\nVarious medals at local and regional fencing tournaments"}, {"id": "nu9rMV11j55jcwL5Kqi8", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1689890767194, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1690075325351, "question": "Will Marc Diakiese beat Joel Alvarez?", "slug": "will-marc-diakiese-beat-joel-alvare", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-marc-diakiese-beat-joel-alvare", "pool": {"NO": 53.840178990789745, "YES": 13985.347703816065}, "probability": 0.0005034814893610394, "p": 0.11570830743846919, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14954.272199628085, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690075325351, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690074347460, "lastBetTime": 1690074346652, "lastCommentTime": 1690051118857, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Marc Diakiese and Joel Alvarez are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Marc Diakiese wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Joel Alvarez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["mma"], "textDescription": "Marc Diakiese and Joel Alvarez are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. \n\nIf Marc Diakiese wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Joel Alvarez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "rEgHp7AzwTYDi8FoQRFj", "creatorId": "zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2", "creatorUsername": "TenShino", "creatorName": "Punished Ten Shino", "createdTime": 1685952257239, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTenShino%2FJisHOe4pUV.jpg?alt=media&token=74f0ec08-a635-41ca-bbf5-dc271bcac725", "closeTime": 1690243140000, "question": "Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party get more than 105 seats in the Spanish general election (2023)?", "slug": "will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-494679a68bc6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-494679a68bc6", "pool": {"NO": 1273.5465665255676, "YES": 66.03785386116772}, "probability": 0.9854280277562868, "p": 0.7781026173649284, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1690.0033689263544, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690259304040, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690242300672, "lastBetTime": 1690242300519, "lastCommentTime": 1685993723262, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) got 120 seats.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FsvtFB2QFys.png?alt=media&token=6a9c6e24-f67d-4ea1-96df-3e369d2b9373", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "elections-world", "spain"], "textDescription": "The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) got 120 seats.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election"}, {"id": "AZt9utkvmKtemsTi0PPH", "creatorId": "UudsQmNTDVgTG8j5ZH4VmRU3nSq1", "creatorUsername": "Harlan", "creatorName": "Harlan", "createdTime": 1667422915481, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1IPPKptExrtr-CdWbnKlyflrICQGnHZH6mrJT1Ew=s96-c", "closeTime": 1668067140000, "question": "Will at least 2 people join for a sing-along the first time that Katja plays guitar at the AI Impacts retreat?", "slug": "will-at-least-2-people-join-for-a-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Harlan/will-at-least-2-people-join-for-a-s", "pool": {"NO": 188.80669216347368, "YES": 137.5160753142945}, "probability": 0.6145558195565909, "p": 0.5373106400617326, "totalLiquidity": 160, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 41, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672858138468, "resolutionProbability": 0.61, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668011401411, "lastBetTime": 1668011401296, "lastCommentTime": 1667422979013, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FkuAL835Zpc.png?alt=media&token=1a9821ce-27e5-4c38-b46b-26a83b2c8468", "groupSlugs": ["ai-impacts"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "2A7Ed6BqEk4msEWABTAI", "creatorId": "oC0ydA8sgmSLPu6bN2G8Fa2Avim1", "creatorUsername": "muffins", "creatorName": "muffins", "createdTime": 1674420404582, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSY%2Ft2I1OxVpth.JPG?alt=media&token=605f1e3f-4dbe-44de-a763-41c06620af0b", "closeTime": 1674612600102, "question": "Will Manifolders win this game of Hangman? [4]", "slug": "will-manifolders-win-this-game-of-h-0c12d284339c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/muffins/will-manifolders-win-this-game-of-h-0c12d284339c", "pool": {"NO": 138.08648945973425, "YES": 2788.9705054555916}, "probability": 0.02587271567915106, "p": 0.3491436706877333, "totalLiquidity": 470, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4838.050706720063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1674612600102, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1674612391654, "lastBetTime": 1674612391506, "lastCommentTime": 1674612342353, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A fourth to the series! Here's another market based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have a limited number of guesses, so guess wisely!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the last market, Manifolders failed to save Bobert because of ... bots maybe? Who knows, but the Bob saga continues! Bobelina, who looks very similar to Bobert, is held to the same situation. This is Bobelina:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\\|/", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "  O", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "/ | \\", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u200e   |", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "_/\\", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "_", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bobelina is your average fellow being, but for the strategists, notably, she has a head, a two-part body, two arms, two legs, two feet and three hairs (or a fashionable crown), which means that twelve wrong guesses are allowed before Bobelina is complete. Wrong guesses include guesses that have letters not in the word or an incorrect word.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The second constraint is that each person gets one guess in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The third constraint is that you must bid at least 10 mana as an entry to guess. This is to prevent (not sure if this will be successful?) bots, hopefully.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The word is: STI__S", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The current state of Bobelina:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\\|/", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "  O", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "/ | \\", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "   |", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "_/\\", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "_", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the correct word is guessed or if all the letters in the word are guessed before Bobelina is completed. Resolves NO if the correct word is not guessed or if Bobelina is completed.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fgx3-Sg4Iy7.png?alt=media&token=1711448f-77b5-48ff-9df7-6abfd0014555", "groupSlugs": ["fun"], "textDescription": "A fourth to the series! Here's another market based off hangman, which is basically a game in which you guess letters until you get enough information to guess the word. However the catch is that you have a limited number of guesses, so guess wisely!\n\nIn the last market, Manifolders failed to save Bobert because of ... bots maybe? Who knows, but the Bob saga continues! Bobelina, who looks very similar to Bobert, is held to the same situation. This is Bobelina:\n\n\\|/\n\n  O\n\n/ | \\\n\n\u200e   |\n\n_/\\_\n\nBobelina is your average fellow being, but for the strategists, notably, she has a head, a two-part body, two arms, two legs, two feet and three hairs (or a fashionable crown), which means that twelve wrong guesses are allowed before Bobelina is complete. Wrong guesses include guesses that have letters not in the word or an incorrect word.\n\nThe second constraint is that each person gets one guess in the comments.\n\nThe third constraint is that you must bid at least 10 mana as an entry to guess. This is to prevent (not sure if this will be successful?) bots, hopefully.\n\nThe word is: STI__S\n\nThe current state of Bobelina:\n\n\\|/\n\n  O\n\n/ | \\\n   |\n\n_/\\_\n\nResolves YES if the correct word is guessed or if all the letters in the word are guessed before Bobelina is completed. Resolves NO if the correct word is not guessed or if Bobelina is completed."}, {"id": "ROyLIj2Adq8Lk9Rw5hCM", "creatorId": "X7eEaQER2RauGtssmqMAv5PbFln2", "creatorUsername": "deagol", "creatorName": "Daniel Tello", "createdTime": 1698438580704, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6BsfsqAl7jpz1-555S-MyDfZq8L-o_pMzd20B1Yw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1699477559556, "question": "Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $160?", "slug": "will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-d0d41ace72dc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/deagol/will-apple-stock-aapl-fully-break-1-d0d41ace72dc", "pool": {"NO": 14775.284005893085, "YES": 41.080195117936455}, "probability": 0.9983246240004487, "p": 0.6235998173097176, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16946.063477826618, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699477559556, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699477540078, "lastBetTime": 1699477539903, "lastCommentTime": 1699477503060, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last price: 2023-11-07 $181.82 (day low 178.97)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zones/et", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") after market creation (2023-10-27) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $160 (NO) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "for the whole session", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $160", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "publicly-quoted", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl/historical", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $170 then quoted prices next day would be $85 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "apple", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Last price: 2023-11-07 $181.82 (day low 178.97)\n\n(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)\n\nResolves after the first regular Nasdaq trading session (09:30-16:00 ET) after market creation (2023-10-27) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $160 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close:\n\nResolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180\n\nResolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $160\n\nWill extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $170 then quoted prices next day would be $85 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)."}, {"id": "3QSIwMlHNOMXzktbVWmF", "creatorId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "creatorUsername": "LarsDoucet", "creatorName": "Lars Doucet", "createdTime": 1671133033043, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will Riffusion trigger a significant opposition from musicians somewhat comparable to the one Stable Diffusion received from visual artists?", "slug": "will-riffusion-trigger-a-significan", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-riffusion-trigger-a-significan", "pool": {"NO": 468.5162978152223, "YES": 832.1678386733895}, "probability": 0.14766334754157712, "p": 0.23530701549219135, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1614.4975511555554, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704521561957, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704521562254, "lastBetTime": 1704084220357, "lastCommentTime": 1704521558713, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So Riffusion exists:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.riffusion.com/about", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.riffusion.com/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It uses Stable Diffusion to create visual images of spectograms, which encode audio information. This means that you can convert music recordings to spectogram images, fine-tune Stable Diffusion on a tagged set, and then use keywords to generate new spectograms, and decode those into new recordings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this create a comparable freakout from musicians to what we saw from visual artists in reaction to Stable Diffusion?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be somewhat subjective to resolve, but let's say that if I observe a freakout from musicians, and it seems at least 25% as strong as the artist freakout to Stable Diffusion, then this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You'll have to trust my good faith to resolve this as fairly as I can because a lot of it will be subjective temperature reading. I'll try to supplement it with objective and semi-objective metrics (keyword search counts of e.g. \"ai art is bad/problematic\", or observing the number of online art communities that explicitly ban generated works versus online music communities that do so, etc). The spirit of the market is the freakout doesn't have to be the same size, but it has to be within the same order of magnitude, and it needs to be clearly visible. If it reasonably feels like there's about 1/4 as many angry musicians upset about Riffusion as there are angry visual artists upset about Stable Diffusion, this resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To be clear: this market is not just about Riffusion, but any upgraded versions of it, or any broadly similar generative musical AI that uses this technique (spectogram generation) as a significant part of its pipeline.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FgHILw395L0.png?alt=media&token=1ed02e74-8776-439a-8390-338037e938cb", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "So Riffusion exists:\nhttps://www.riffusion.com/about\n\nIt uses Stable Diffusion to create visual images of spectograms, which encode audio information. This means that you can convert music recordings to spectogram images, fine-tune Stable Diffusion on a tagged set, and then use keywords to generate new spectograms, and decode those into new recordings.\n\nWill this create a comparable freakout from musicians to what we saw from visual artists in reaction to Stable Diffusion?\n\nThis will be somewhat subjective to resolve, but let's say that if I observe a freakout from musicians, and it seems at least 25% as strong as the artist freakout to Stable Diffusion, then this market resolves YES.\n\nYou'll have to trust my good faith to resolve this as fairly as I can because a lot of it will be subjective temperature reading. I'll try to supplement it with objective and semi-objective metrics (keyword search counts of e.g. \"ai art is bad/problematic\", or observing the number of online art communities that explicitly ban generated works versus online music communities that do so, etc). The spirit of the market is the freakout doesn't have to be the same size, but it has to be within the same order of magnitude, and it needs to be clearly visible. If it reasonably feels like there's about 1/4 as many angry musicians upset about Riffusion as there are angry visual artists upset about Stable Diffusion, this resolves YES.\n\nTo be clear: this market is not just about Riffusion, but any upgraded versions of it, or any broadly similar generative musical AI that uses this technique (spectogram generation) as a significant part of its pipeline."}, {"id": "DcwrDk6CcoBIgOCXr2OK", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1698686283241, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1698768000000, "question": "Will Deutsche Bank AG close higher october 31th than the close of october 30th?", "slug": "will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-befc2b633a2a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-bank-ag-close-higher-befc2b633a2a", "pool": {"NO": 110.1825353523546, "YES": 182.93786558446632}, "probability": 0.4100000000000004, "p": 0.5356998445506019, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 164.14361701125333, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698772856964, "resolutionProbability": 0.41, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698772851313, "lastBetTime": 1698767827908, "lastCommentTime": 1698772849671, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcmLHs9zBEF.png?alt=media&token=d3465149-5fee-4115-b56b-f07a9f9947e5", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4", "finance"], "textDescription": "Deutsche Bank AG closes 6:30 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DBK:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Xi1H4rwCoQLMPEHkm7s3", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1700666199821, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1700799972935, "question": "Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 12 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-seattle-seahawks-beat-the-98208040a8b7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-seattle-seahawks-beat-the-98208040a8b7", "pool": {"NO": 116.33854452720698, "YES": 7165.639371925693}, "probability": 0.004058044684443833, "p": 0.2006174780509863, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9583.237325088001, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700799984515, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700799761231, "lastBetTime": 1700799760812, "lastCommentTime": 1700787129666, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Seahawks win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - 49ers win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["football", "seattle-seahawks", "nfl", "san-francisco-49ers", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Seahawks win\n\nNo - 49ers win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "XfWjupic3HSN21YgzLIn", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690992843878, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691276400000, "question": "Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher August 5th Than August 4th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-706b29cef700", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-706b29cef700", "pool": {"NO": 795.1221450559485, "YES": 165.81035631713232}, "probability": 0.9048024489053577, "p": 0.664655694592824, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1013.9024628386375, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691291596432, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691291598486, "lastBetTime": 1691275388934, "lastCommentTime": 1691291593431, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 4th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FfIQOdxOamC.png?alt=media&token=5ef240b6-f63f-4878-b1ba-2638bec5aa19", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "finance"], "textDescription": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 4th Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "PpZdLexatgZWOpTsSRfU", "creatorId": "ZMFmxzlu8ie6k2RT3iei64fncY23", "creatorUsername": "RealityQuotient", "creatorName": "Reality Quotient", "createdTime": 1676647437677, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRealityQuotient%2F1ibfR9B3aE.52?alt=media&token=d93aaf2f-c14b-456b-bfb8-027eb4381783", "closeTime": 1680393540000, "question": "Will Microsoft resolve it's \"unhinged\" ChatBot problem by April 1st, 2023?", "slug": "will-microsoft-resolve-its-unhinged", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RealityQuotient/will-microsoft-resolve-its-unhinged", "pool": {"NO": 1045.9548795175333, "YES": 110.38980156145819}, "probability": 0.9769883254715145, "p": 0.8175454314370961, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1078.2114357761063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680394787500, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680391026245, "lastBetTime": 1680391026094, "lastCommentTime": 1676674412263, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stories such as the following are now becoming common, and it's created signficiant concern at Microsoft about their reputation: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ad39b/microsoft-bing-ai-unhinged-lying-berating-users", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vice.com/en/article/3ad39b/microsoft-bing-ai-unhinged-lying-berating-users", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/15/23599072/microsoft-ai-bing-personality-conversations-spy-employees-webcams", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/15/23599072/microsoft-ai-bing-personality-conversations-spy-employees-webcams", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will prompt hackers still be succesfully generating negative publicity for Microsoft on April 1st 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Methodology: Google search trends will be queried: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_KAfYsF2pQ.png?alt=media&token=cebc9006-2ee2-4531-b19d-c3a60b1dc618", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1676646600?hl=en-US&tz=480&geo=US&q=Bing+unhinged&sni=6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1676646600?hl=en-US&tz=480&geo=US&q=Bing+unhinged&sni=6", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the trend for this query on April 1st no more than 1/2 as high as the peak over the trailing 12 months as of April 1st 2023, then this market will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO. If it's too close to call by my judgement, then I'll resolve NA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note: I will not use the dotted line projection to resolve the market. Only the solid line, tracked numbers. As such, the market will likely resolve a little time after April 1st.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F17r_rKG6L0.png?alt=media&token=2ad09b20-0155-4652-9c25-fd3ee7422031", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "ai-safety", "ai-impacts", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Stories such as the following are now becoming common, and it's created signficiant concern at Microsoft about their reputation: \n\nhttps://www.vice.com/en/article/3ad39b/microsoft-bing-ai-unhinged-lying-berating-users\n\nhttps://www.theverge.com/2023/2/15/23599072/microsoft-ai-bing-personality-conversations-spy-employees-webcams\n\nWill prompt hackers still be succesfully generating negative publicity for Microsoft on April 1st 2023?\n\nMethodology: Google search trends will be queried: \n\n[image]https://trends.google.com/trends/explore/TIMESERIES/1676646600?hl=en-US&tz=480&geo=US&q=Bing+unhinged&sni=6\n\nIf the trend for this query on April 1st no more than 1/2 as high as the peak over the trailing 12 months as of April 1st 2023, then this market will resolve YES, otherwise it will resolve NO. If it's too close to call by my judgement, then I'll resolve NA.\n\nNote: I will not use the dotted line projection to resolve the market. Only the solid line, tracked numbers. As such, the market will likely resolve a little time after April 1st.\n\n"}, {"id": "hBSDAyLqZuGSm9pHc515", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1697818088554, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1698012000000, "question": "Will BA flight 442 from London to Amsterdam on 2023-10-22 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?", "slug": "will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-246460b35b70", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-246460b35b70", "pool": {"NO": 101.75970881657204, "YES": 424.1798912989635}, "probability": 0.05790647397987549, "p": 0.203958956999825, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 584.2132491260329, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698025995470, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698009024359, "lastBetTime": 1698009024056, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/5n6edndm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/5n6edndm", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/5n6edndm"}, {"id": "PW8NTEggOlaQB1Y72YPa", "creatorId": "AHf5jynaHbNiNiwoYx1UfhRMq3Q2", "creatorUsername": "MatthewBarnett", "creatorName": "Matthew Barnett", "createdTime": 1680061686855, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMatthewBarnett%2FPrydonian.jpg?alt=media&token=328bca5a-a909-4d27-91fb-217b30c305ec", "closeTime": 1680678060000, "question": "Will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the AI moratorium open letter before April 5th, 2023?", "slug": "will-it-be-verified-that-sam-altman", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-it-be-verified-that-sam-altman", "pool": {"NO": 805.6927531883946, "YES": 8868.978230465862}, "probability": 0.0076533344425383934, "p": 0.07825335630670915, "totalLiquidity": 1010, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10124.521011198656, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1680718506039, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 51, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680673896093, "lastBetTime": 1680673895924, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recent open letter", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It also called for shared safety protocols and improved AI governance. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the AI community and his support for the open letter could influence its impact and reception.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before April 5th, 2023, will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the recent open letter calling for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 (including GPT-5)?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve positively if, before April 5th, 2023, credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter, meeting the following criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Verification of Signature: There must be clear and convincing evidence that Sam Altman himself has signed the open letter. This evidence may include, but is not limited to: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "a. A public statement from Sam Altman, either written or spoken, in which he confirms that he has signed the open letter. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "b. An official statement from OpenAI or its representatives confirming Sam Altman's signature on the open letter. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "c. A credible news source reporting on Sam Altman's signature, with sufficient details to ascertain the validity of the claim, such as quotes from Altman or his representatives. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "d. A public update to the open letter, such as a revised version or an addendum, that includes Sam Altman's name, along with accompanying evidence as outlined in points (a), (b), or (c) to verify the authenticity of his signature.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unambiguous Support: Sam Altman's signature on the open letter must signify his agreement with its content and the call for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter meeting the above criteria before April 5th 2023, the question will resolve positively. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FZR420a4Okm.png?alt=media&token=562a71b9-b6b4-4b08-ae77-bff21f9e3e4a", "groupSlugs": ["ai-safety"], "textDescription": "A recent open letter called for a moratorium on the development of increasingly powerful artificial intelligence (AI) systems, highlighting the potential risks to society and humanity. The letter urged all AI labs to pause the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5, for at least 6 months. It also called for shared safety protocols and improved AI governance. Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the AI community and his support for the open letter could influence its impact and reception.\n\nBefore April 5th, 2023, will it be verified that Sam Altman signed the recent open letter calling for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4 (including GPT-5)?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nThis question will resolve positively if, before April 5th, 2023, credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter, meeting the following criteria:\n\nVerification of Signature: There must be clear and convincing evidence that Sam Altman himself has signed the open letter. This evidence may include, but is not limited to: \na. A public statement from Sam Altman, either written or spoken, in which he confirms that he has signed the open letter. \nb. An official statement from OpenAI or its representatives confirming Sam Altman's signature on the open letter. \nc. A credible news source reporting on Sam Altman's signature, with sufficient details to ascertain the validity of the claim, such as quotes from Altman or his representatives. \nd. A public update to the open letter, such as a revised version or an addendum, that includes Sam Altman's name, along with accompanying evidence as outlined in points (a), (b), or (c) to verify the authenticity of his signature.\n\nUnambiguous Support: Sam Altman's signature on the open letter must signify his agreement with its content and the call for a moratorium on the development of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4, including GPT-5.\n\nIf credible news sources, official statements, or other verifiable evidence confirm that Sam Altman has signed the open letter meeting the above criteria before April 5th 2023, the question will resolve positively. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively."}, {"id": "PTMGcBzd3D494fYry1ft", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1700418365992, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1703877300000, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Fri. December 29th than it closed on Thu. December 28th? {DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-c6f645ba289d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-c6f645ba289d", "pool": {"NO": 370.3136763317013, "YES": 123.33381054092793}, "probability": 0.7799999999999997, "p": 0.5414572374395622, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 391.12201479383833, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703887885504, "resolutionProbability": 0.78, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703888956960, "lastBetTime": 1703864972592, "lastCommentTime": 1703888956352, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 215pm ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FlXL2SQpgdN.png?alt=media&token=cd4c41eb-7a30-4c25-926b-7a8ad4bd61f4", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-7a6f79ef8fc3", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "vix", "cboe"], "textDescription": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)\n\nVIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.\n\nPredictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-7a6f79ef8fc3)"}, {"id": "CEI0z6u7CkGDhQxXDe7V", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1665239769732, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Will an offensive (non-test) nuclear weapon detonation cause at least 1 fatality in 2022?", "slug": "will-an-offensive-nontest-nuclear-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-offensive-nontest-nuclear-w", "pool": {"NO": 155.1471804702149, "YES": 1577.6016487942113}, "probability": 0.016250477351537933, "p": 0.14381456945619853, "totalLiquidity": 260, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1617.913503438556, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672727934595, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670149144885, "lastBetTime": 1670149144711, "lastCommentTime": 1665240321878, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively and causes at least 1 fatality after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Offensively", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " means neither ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "detonations for testing purposes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " nor ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "peaceful nuclear explosions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any of a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " detonation would count towards question resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use Metaculus decisions on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and related questions to decide the resolution criteria.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two closely related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb", "height": "200px", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["nuclear-risk"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively and causes at least 1 fatality after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.\n\nOffensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.\n\nThe fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.\n\nAny of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.\n\nI will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/ and related questions to decide the resolution criteria.\n\nSee https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.\n\nTwo closely related questions:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonation-ca/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-6843759174bb)"}, {"id": "naM5XofeEJOgT1QKlsWg", "creatorId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "creatorUsername": "Duncn", "creatorName": "Duncn", "createdTime": 1658950312728, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDuncan%2Fd23fdd0ee35b58832236cbd532da462a.jpg?alt=media&token=248daf59-7b59-4ecf-b4c9-5fe6ff48656d", "closeTime": 1704127308990, "question": "Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2023?", "slug": "will-any-countries-that-are-not-cur-c04d620e5504", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-any-countries-that-are-not-cur-c04d620e5504", "pool": {"NO": 376.7623163535007, "YES": 13240.889852852204}, "probability": 0.004406931003090294, "p": 0.1346203671507919, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14736.646301626597, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704127308990, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 60, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704127310161, "lastBetTime": 1704125779427, "lastCommentTime": 1659182176597, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "#technology", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/technology", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#war", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/war", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#military", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/military", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#ExistentialRisk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/ExistentialRisk", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#Xrisk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/Xrisk", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#nuclear", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/nuclear", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "#notfun", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/tag/notfun", "class": "z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2 text-indigo-700", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["world-default", "nuclear-risk", "global-macro", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.\n\n#technology #war #military #ExistentialRisk #Xrisk #nuclear #notfun"}, {"id": "rZF1Lb74moQQupwG4rSd", "creatorId": "FPs5hzoibSUgBLOEexZTAQO4kfm1", "creatorUsername": "Ophelia", "creatorName": "Ophelia", "createdTime": 1654401904429, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjHJ7fDIclHMksPAWYaVwA8WNC_yVZpTf-g4hNO=s96-c", "closeTime": 1654883519113, "question": "Did CEA spend $50k/participant on a student recruiting camp, AND was Ben Hoffman's tweet non-misleading?", "slug": "did-cea-spend-50kparticipant-on-a-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ophelia/did-cea-spend-50kparticipant-on-a-s", "pool": {"NO": 118.66403541230159, "YES": 100.68689834328745}, "probability": 0.4895092536900253, "p": 0.44861957820464426, "totalLiquidity": 105.1161252974459, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 208.74201344159766, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1654883519113, "resolutionProbability": 0.48950925369002524, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667146088293, "lastBetTime": 1654704205127, "lastCommentTime": 1667146086103, "description": "Ben Hoffman just tweeted (https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1533162764042215426)\n\"A friend who worked there said CEA ran a recruiting camp with the primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs, spent $50k/participant on this. Can connect you w him for details.\"\nIs true in a non-misleading way? We'll find out before Sept 1 (since that's the deadline for the EA critiques prize) but I want to see what people's priors on this thing are.\n\nRules:\n- ***If I don't get more info, this resolves as ambiguous!*** If you want to bet on a question that doesn't do this, ping me or make your own.\n- I'll try to resolve early if possible.\n- Ben, or other insiders, are welcome to take our money.\n- If the $$$ figure was less than $50k but close, I'll resolve PROB as ($/participant)/$50k.\n\nExamples of scenarios in which I would consider the tweet true, but misleading (and thus resolve NO):\n- The recruiting camp for non-students, and the \"primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs\" was something more indirect\n- The camp had a more specific main goal. For example, it was for students selected for AI alignment relevant skills, and the goal was to get them to do AI alignment research, and there was a realistic plan for that beyond just causing them to associate with effective altruism\n- The high $$$/participant number is because much fewer people showed up than expected, and this was genuinely unforeseen\n- They were preparing for a different, bigger camp, and then had to scrap it and did this camp instead, and Ben is adding up the costs for both camps, and then dividing by the number of participants of the camp that actually happened.\n\nPutting \"Effective Altruism\" in the text in case someone is searching for keywords...", "textDescription": "Ben Hoffman just tweeted (https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1533162764042215426)\n\"A friend who worked there said CEA ran a recruiting camp with the primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs, spent $50k/participant on this. Can connect you w him for details.\"\nIs true in a non-misleading way? We'll find out before Sept 1 (since that's the deadline for the EA critiques prize) but I want to see what people's priors on this thing are.\n\nRules:\n- ***If I don't get more info, this resolves as ambiguous!*** If you want to bet on a question that doesn't do this, ping me or make your own.\n- I'll try to resolve early if possible.\n- Ben, or other insiders, are welcome to take our money.\n- If the $$$ figure was less than $50k but close, I'll resolve PROB as ($/participant)/$50k.\n\nExamples of scenarios in which I would consider the tweet true, but misleading (and thus resolve NO):\n- The recruiting camp for non-students, and the \"primary target of causing more students to identify as EAs\" was something more indirect\n- The camp had a more specific main goal. For example, it was for students selected for AI alignment relevant skills, and the goal was to get them to do AI alignment research, and there was a realistic plan for that beyond just causing them to associate with effective altruism\n- The high $$$/participant number is because much fewer people showed up than expected, and this was genuinely unforeseen\n- They were preparing for a different, bigger camp, and then had to scrap it and did this camp instead, and Ben is adding up the costs for both camps, and then dividing by the number of participants of the camp that actually happened.\n\nPutting \"Effective Altruism\" in the text in case someone is searching for keywords..."}, {"id": "5TnlUuAxGMipbJxflAFa", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1686181407797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1686600000000, "question": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) close higher on June 12th than it closed on June 9th?", "slug": "will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-18f9addbdff3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-18f9addbdff3", "pool": {"NO": 10958.755532634847, "YES": 64.47045658488376}, "probability": 0.99843595468649, "p": 0.7897181719961495, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12088.636165481457, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686600053630, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686600052664, "lastBetTime": 1686599817929, "lastCommentTime": 1686600049311, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJI closes at 4pm EDT.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "1f37130e-0163-4672-a629-71b660bf5612", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Dow Jones Industrial Average Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "RELATED MARKET:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-3b462be4285f", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNTEMyz5r6E.png?alt=media&token=3991b194-23dc-4984-bd37-c9e1b8d984f4", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "DJI closes at 4pm EDT.\n\nResolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX at the end of the day.\n\n[link preview]I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market\n\n\nRELATED MARKET:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-3b462be4285f)"}, {"id": "XqDz7cipw3mmocSPWLgR", "creatorId": "9il5Z8Wrd5Y3LZvsLbQqC8Tdy1O2", "creatorUsername": "PS", "creatorName": "PS", "createdTime": 1672823967856, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPS%2Fx9RqFWJw8E.jpg?alt=media&token=edcfea77-2b03-43c2-adb4-29bed7995530", "closeTime": 1702035536691, "question": "Will Putin announce a 2024 presidency bid in 2023?", "slug": "will-putin-announce-a-2024-presiden", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PS/will-putin-announce-a-2024-presiden", "pool": {"NO": 6974.194382454392, "YES": 120.11965632638794}, "probability": 0.9934228324494006, "p": 0.7223339592426515, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7142.42394725234, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702035536691, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702035428961, "lastBetTime": 1702035428816, "lastCommentTime": 1702035392444, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Russian presidential elections are due to be held in March 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". His spokesman stated in November that ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Putin has not yet decided whether he would run", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-not-sure-run-russia-president-2024-peskov-expert-typical-2022-11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "; however, the campaigns being what they are, he often announces his candidacy at the last moment. However, it is still widely expected that he ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "has", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " to announce at least three months in advance, that is, by the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves yes if, at any point during the year, Putin or his spokespeople announce that he is going to run, even if they don't submit the paperwork or reverse the decision later. I will resolve N/A if the 2024 elections are called off or posponed to May 2024 or later.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FlUh10r_RPi.png?alt=media&token=7ee429d4-7c41-4257-a79c-57d2f49b971e", "groupSlugs": ["russia", "politics-default", "elections-world", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "The Russian presidential elections are due to be held in March 2024. His spokesman stated in November that Putin has not yet decided whether he would run; however, the campaigns being what they are, he often announces his candidacy at the last moment. However, it is still widely expected that he has to announce at least three months in advance, that is, by the end of 2023.\n\nThis market resolves yes if, at any point during the year, Putin or his spokespeople announce that he is going to run, even if they don't submit the paperwork or reverse the decision later. I will resolve N/A if the 2024 elections are called off or posponed to May 2024 or later."}, {"id": "P25bB6xoEE5BRiN4i3dt", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1696273293120, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1696287600000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 2 than it closed on October 1?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-1-b0210cbddc1c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-1-b0210cbddc1c", "pool": {"NO": 118.56075098333042, "YES": 1543.007375711809}, "probability": 0.00935699703576862, "p": 0.10946995788358553, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3953.5006848564676, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696297538874, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696297536480, "lastBetTime": 1696286910112, "lastCommentTime": 1696297535919, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5241", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Q3 2023 (July/August/September)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "profits on this leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st = 3,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd = 2,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3rd = 1,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th = 750", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5th = 600", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "6th = 420", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7th = 300", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "8th = 250", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9th = 200", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "10th = 100", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "label": "SirCryptomind"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "f6cd0118-2831-423c-bf9c-6ef91bef6e3a", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill Bitcoin BTC close higher on August 22 than it closed on August 21?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5241\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 leaderboard.\n\nQ3 2023 (July/August/September)\n\nPrizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:\n\nprofits on this leaderboard.\n\n1st = 3,000\n\n2nd = 2,000\n\n3rd = 1,000\n\n4th = 750\n\n5th = 600\n\n6th = 420\n\n7th = 300\n\n8th = 250\n\n9th = 200\n\n10th = 100\n\n@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "gSG96ivy47K6QyrMsWkF", "creatorId": "pr1zKxu1KMe8Z3bVZ5G3FQNMZ0z2", "creatorUsername": "CivilizedGuy", "creatorName": "Civilized Guy", "createdTime": 1697481998333, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCivilizedGuy%2F6GmoxKj8xc.png?alt=media&token=201a19ab-a7e2-4545-a9af-fc7f516e664d", "closeTime": 1697833943785, "question": "Will Trump violate his GAG order?", "slug": "will-trump-violate-his-gag-order", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CivilizedGuy/will-trump-violate-his-gag-order", "pool": {"NO": 531.2249454687282, "YES": 51.995660800986414}, "probability": 0.9513564789099053, "p": 0.6568628276435776, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 766.4222882305445, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697833943785, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710207190544, "lastBetTime": 1697833941842, "lastCommentTime": 1697833642140, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve to YES if/when any judge issues a ruling that says Trump has violated any GAG order. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve to Yes upon a judge's ruling. The date os December 31, 2024 is arbitrarily chosen. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "trump-indictments"], "textDescription": "The question will resolve to YES if/when any judge issues a ruling that says Trump has violated any GAG order. \n\nThe question will resolve to Yes upon a judge's ruling. The date os December 31, 2024 is arbitrarily chosen. "}, {"id": "0Wgwpg5fnwZjLPor1Dcr", "creatorId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "creatorUsername": "MilfordHammerschmidt", "creatorName": "M.H.", "createdTime": 1678989976425, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilfordHammerschmidt%2FMhqZuz0VmX.jpg?alt=media&token=4d37af37-4110-4578-8a16-139e7e2fef8f", "closeTime": 1703182207657, "question": "Will Levels.fyi's next report claim that software engineer salaries continued to decline through 2023?", "slug": "will-levelsfyis-2023-end-of-year-pa", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-levelsfyis-2023-end-of-year-pa", "pool": {"NO": 61881.22400168676, "YES": 1455.4536077610592}, "probability": 0.9803705591435623, "p": 0.5401635055202176, "totalLiquidity": 8215, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 88858.50415784905, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703182207657, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "qjyDZaspY7fjbOsSZ00Hrw1KwXn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 84, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703189269566, "lastBetTime": 1703182154210, "lastCommentTime": 1703189267791, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Levels.fyi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Levels.fyi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "'s end of year pay report, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing from 2021 until the start of 2023. Will their next* report show this trend buckling or holding steady?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if they do not publish such a report.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market has been heavily subsidized.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*Edit: next \"end of year pay report\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fa9Q_91zst4.png?alt=media&token=4ffac913-f8e1-4a84-82fc-f3833491d84c", "groupSlugs": ["programming-automation", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "According to Levels.fyi's end of year pay report, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing from 2021 until the start of 2023. Will their next* report show this trend buckling or holding steady?\n\nResolves N/A if they do not publish such a report.\n\nThis market has been heavily subsidized.\n\n*Edit: next \"end of year pay report\""}, {"id": "4Qr6aoAET4CVlPbTUXQC", "creatorId": "yczSjbJ92uZoSDO5yLQltlG3k113", "creatorUsername": "keengeek", "creatorName": "keengeek", "createdTime": 1701282127351, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJlaPirxDX0HCWR3kB0E0cPwF4jHsPoQtQtRiK1ym8=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Cigna announce merger/acquisition of Humana officially before Dec 31st 2023?", "slug": "will-cigna-announce-mergeracquisiti", "url": "https://manifold.markets/keengeek/will-cigna-announce-mergeracquisiti", "pool": {"NO": 46.549308168521975, "YES": 716.9999999999998}, "probability": 0.019721361268916746, "p": 0.23657117564128133, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 607, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704465450362, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704465450585, "lastBetTime": 1704065760902, "lastCommentTime": 1704465446355, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["business", "mergers-and-acqusitions", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "UMx9jKeVoRojY6mve35s", "creatorId": "8GvYw5o3eiNZJcCMhqbzrAlnCuX2", "creatorUsername": "Eigenspace", "creatorName": "Eigenspace", "createdTime": 1685559200882, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa-QV5a_0UkIJTv1jYAad8yiUMsks1qr59VESNr=s96-c", "closeTime": 1685994042793, "question": "Will the WWDC 2023 keynote be over two hours long?", "slug": "will-wwdc-2023-keynote-be-over-two", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eigenspace/will-wwdc-2023-keynote-be-over-two", "pool": {"NO": 4118.634596037144, "YES": 95.12987390236316}, "probability": 0.9931204318281521, "p": 0.7692821241481141, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4808.115398398695, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685994042793, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685994027342, "lastBetTime": 1685991923056, "lastCommentTime": 1685994023560, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mark Gurman is predicting that Apple's WWDC 2023 keynote will \"easily exceed 2 hours\": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/markgurman/status/1663757505070256128?s=46&t=TEdrDZZgdQwow0VdG7RFrQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/markgurman/status/1663757505070256128?s=46&t=TEdrDZZgdQwow0VdG7RFrQ", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the WWDC 2023 keynote video posted on Apple's website is >2 hours in length. Otherwise, it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKi-J2KXgV8.png?alt=media&token=6750ea3f-d289-47ef-a63d-fbf6cb5d64af", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "Mark Gurman is predicting that Apple's WWDC 2023 keynote will \"easily exceed 2 hours\": https://twitter.com/markgurman/status/1663757505070256128?s=46&t=TEdrDZZgdQwow0VdG7RFrQ.\n\nThis market resolves YES if the WWDC 2023 keynote video posted on Apple's website is >2 hours in length. Otherwise, it resolves NO."}, {"id": "CSQ81JGg7NsSylaJyDzw", "creatorId": "kMVdJYRhVeOqMVqLlJ3XDvx5NzH3", "creatorUsername": "BarrySang", "creatorName": "Barry Sang", "createdTime": 1694050654293, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdB1eYV_miP858gF0EklBNJl3t9w5LG2_ZjWnnpNlNHXA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694303940000, "question": "Will Donald Trump be assassinated before September 9, 2023?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-be-assassinated-b-c3b30b1619d9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BarrySang/will-donald-trump-be-assassinated-b-c3b30b1619d9", "pool": {"NO": 376.2139546398295, "YES": 7168.423719205758}, "probability": 0.0016075561985362174, "p": 0.029766642300126635, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10628.898093329124, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694687626179, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710219614978, "lastBetTime": 1694284517817, "lastCommentTime": 1694687739285, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald John Trump", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "president of the United States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " from 2017 to 2021.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will he be assassinated before September 9, 2023?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "donald-trump", "magaland"], "textDescription": "Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nWill he be assassinated before September 9, 2023?\n"}, {"id": "Y1zqaCH526leOblCrtBx", "creatorId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "creatorUsername": "NcyRocks", "creatorName": "N.C. Young", "createdTime": 1675906314693, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanYounga244%2FNathan%20square.jpg?alt=media&token=6de519e4-402b-4ff2-b6b3-70181e9d9dc2", "closeTime": 1677657600000, "question": "Will Joe Biden announce whether he's running for President in February 2023?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-announce-whether-hes", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-joe-biden-announce-whether-hes", "pool": {"NO": 188.5841046503958, "YES": 4339.60596345272}, "probability": 0.012086332112547433, "p": 0.21968116885335445, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5103.376383193956, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1677658984297, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1677657081842, "lastBetTime": 1677657081737, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Biden announces either", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a campaign for President in 2024, or", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "that he won't run in 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "by the end of February (in any US timezone).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fiws4AMzvqN.png?alt=media&token=a778a348-73ca-4b2f-8e3a-548726257ac0", "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Biden announces either\n\na campaign for President in 2024, or\n\nthat he won't run in 2024\n\nby the end of February (in any US timezone)."}, {"id": "f6s2aIgph5pQOh24JjN0", "creatorId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "creatorUsername": "LBeesley", "creatorName": "Spongpad", "createdTime": 1689701709701, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLBeesley%2F_uhmErZXVJ.jpg?alt=media&token=d65ca4c2-2cf8-44dd-8624-9f8c6cb1e486", "closeTime": 1690937487170, "question": "Will UPS union workers strike on August 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-ups-union-workers-strike-on-au", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-ups-union-workers-strike-on-au", "pool": {"NO": 366.72910368920543, "YES": 2956.619144000487}, "probability": 0.0142314700554094, "p": 0.10425764950736653, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6616.483410788136, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690937487170, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690931584995, "lastBetTime": 1690931584860, "lastCommentTime": 1690301694139, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumblings of a looming UPS strike.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/17/ups-strike-could-cost-us-economy-billions-heres-how-it-would-impact-consumers/amp/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/17/ups-strike-could-cost-us-economy-billions-heres-how-it-would-impact-consumers/amp/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "f7b7e8d8-c70f-4db7-9d47-52b631b34eca", "url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/17/ups-strike-could-cost-us-economy-billions-heres-how-it-would-impact-consumers/amp/", "image": "https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/64b55e88927c9b5c0924807b/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&crop=3193,1794,x0,y369,safe&width=1200", "title": "UPS Strike Could Cost U.S. Economy Billions\u2014Here\u2019s How It Would Impact Consumers And Businesses", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "If UPS workers go on strike next month, the disruption stands to impact the economy, businesses and customers directly\u2014here\u2019s how it could all play out.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES for a strike beginning at the conclusion of existing contract/agreement on July 31, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if contract resolution occurs prior to July 31, 2023, or any situation, including but not limited to an extension to the existing agreement, that delays a workers' strike beyond a start date of August 1, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["labor"], "textDescription": "Rumblings of a looming UPS strike.\n\nLink: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/17/ups-strike-could-cost-us-economy-billions-heres-how-it-would-impact-consumers/amp/\n\n[link preview]Resolves YES for a strike beginning at the conclusion of existing contract/agreement on July 31, 2023.\n\nResolves NO if contract resolution occurs prior to July 31, 2023, or any situation, including but not limited to an extension to the existing agreement, that delays a workers' strike beyond a start date of August 1, 2023."}, {"id": "BhMd54VoO0WfnRyQYFW3", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1686192192419, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1686250467895, "question": "Will NYC air quality at noon on June 8 be very unhealthy - PM2.5 above 150?", "slug": "will-nyc-air-quality-on-june-8-be-v", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-nyc-air-quality-on-june-8-be-v", "pool": {"NO": 20.2208271353609, "YES": 5916.455457473865}, "probability": 0.00013514238645668018, "p": 0.038042482963844174, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6035.66569729366, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1686250467895, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686250462426, "lastBetTime": 1686243058383, "lastCommentTime": 1686250459903, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.iqair.com/us/usa/new-york/new-york-city", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.iqair.com/us/usa/new-york/new-york-city", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " the hourly data point for 12pm Thursday June 8 is above 150 \u00b5g/m\u00b3. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, PM2.5 150 = AQI 200 which is considered \"very unhealthy\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here's a forecast on the wildfire smoke: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/07/wildfire-smoke-forecast-air-quality-northeast/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/07/wildfire-smoke-forecast-air-quality-northeast/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "28cb16a8-1578-4e19-a470-b949df03d922", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/07/wildfire-smoke-forecast-air-quality-northeast/", "image": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/XNJSDIDDDMAOMHLMDWPYOCJCWI_size-normalized.jpg&w=1440", "title": "How long will wildfire smoke last? Here\u2019s the latest air quality forecast.", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Smoke from Canadian wildfires will linger over New York City and parts of the Northeast for the next 24 to 48 hours. Here\u2019s the latest wildfire smoke forecast.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FOuOtBuZRry.png?alt=media&token=4825fd6a-8f87-43ce-a41b-9b3ab602f8ab", "textDescription": "Resolves YES if on https://www.iqair.com/us/usa/new-york/new-york-city the hourly data point for 12pm Thursday June 8 is above 150 \u00b5g/m\u00b3. Otherwise NO.\n\nFor reference, PM2.5 150 = AQI 200 which is considered \"very unhealthy\"\n\nHere's a forecast on the wildfire smoke: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/07/wildfire-smoke-forecast-air-quality-northeast/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "AmsvUNyIVXuyz94XHtnF", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1682190880042, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1696132404958, "question": "Will France make it to the knockout stage of the tournament at the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-france-make-it-to-the-knockout", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-france-make-it-to-the-knockout", "pool": {"NO": 51197.260373260106, "YES": 80.97975140291965}, "probability": 0.9995899191874882, "p": 0.7940485245686444, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 51280.747354518826, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696132404958, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696132397441, "lastBetTime": 1696132396084, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtVUodgq1SY.png?alt=media&token=6f8bc398-b6b3-49f1-895a-34567247391e", "groupSlugs": ["rugby", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup", "france"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "v9CbRorFSTyvYR6fLasj", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1690919739722, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1691298646409, "question": "Will Jake Paul beat Nate Diaz?", "slug": "will-jake-paul-beat-nate-diaz-ecb87fb0ca2d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jake-paul-beat-nate-diaz-ecb87fb0ca2d", "pool": {"NO": 47126.96589518964, "YES": 51.73266677074571}, "probability": 0.9995378372507214, "p": 0.7036249963911859, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 55397.48879162708, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691298646409, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691298634417, "lastBetTime": 1691298634307, "lastCommentTime": 1691237835035, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Jake Paul wins, this question will resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Nate Diaz wins, or if the fight ends in a draw, this question will resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the bout is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the bout is cancelled, this question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["combat-sports", "celebrities", "sports-default", "boxing", "influencer-boxing", "nate-diaz", "celebrity-boxing"], "textDescription": "Jake Paul (6-1) and Nate Diaz (0-0) are scheduled to have a professional boxing match on August 5th, 2023 in Dallas, Texas, USA. \n\nIf Jake Paul wins, this question will resolve YES.\n\nIf Nate Diaz wins, or if the fight ends in a draw, this question will resolve NO.\n\nIf the bout is declared a No Contest on the night, or if the bout is cancelled, this question will resolve N/A."}, {"id": "7n6Ek0JOVsWuX4Cq0BdF", "creatorId": "HPJzzWkIWjcX9kLhSM3ogUjx4c92", "creatorUsername": "aoife", "creatorName": "aoife", "createdTime": 1687853177625, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Faoife%2FeNDCzdH4bo.jpg?alt=media&token=169ec262-6a3f-487b-9d50-45918d260e02", "closeTime": 1688207148956, "question": "Will the Qualifying session at the 2023 F1 Austrian Grand Prix be red flagged?", "slug": "will-the-qualifying-session-at-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/aoife/will-the-qualifying-session-at-the", "pool": {"NO": 79.88743264571514, "YES": 151.88647101969715}, "probability": 0.2706821477000336, "p": 0.4137099244646344, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 52, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688207148956, "resolutionProbability": 0.27, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688207126793, "lastBetTime": 1688207126666, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any of the Q1, Q2 or Q3 sessions of the 2023 F1 Austrian Grand Prix are red flagged at least once during the race.  Does not count any flags thrown during other sessions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to N/A if none of the qualifying sessions take place.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if:\n\nAny of the Q1, Q2 or Q3 sessions of the 2023 F1 Austrian Grand Prix are red flagged at least once during the race.  Does not count any flags thrown during other sessions.\n\nResolves to NO otherwise.\n\nResolves to N/A if none of the qualifying sessions take place."}, {"id": "D6nwqzCakuFMDgo9ol5D", "creatorId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "creatorUsername": "Eliza", "creatorName": "Eliza", "createdTime": 1689526687593, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c", "closeTime": 1689694453509, "question": "Will Jonas Vingegaard retain the yellow jersey after Stage 16 of the 2023 Tour de France?", "slug": "will-jonas-vingegaard-retain-the-ye-d5b463f43a9f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-jonas-vingegaard-retain-the-ye-d5b463f43a9f", "pool": {"NO": 12772.643969973817, "YES": 21.64861676860164}, "probability": 0.9990378704534761, "p": 0.6376732206398731, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12969.03234551174, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689694457981, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689694961376, "lastBetTime": 1689694369690, "lastCommentTime": 1689694959064, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if he finishes the stage first on GC. If he doesn't finish or someone else is awarded the yellow jersey, resolves no.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["tour-de-france", "road-bicycle-racing"], "textDescription": "Resolves yes if he finishes the stage first on GC. If he doesn't finish or someone else is awarded the yellow jersey, resolves no."}, {"id": "9LlvqVjrniSYt3gffhG3", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705398633177, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705561200000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-18 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-a0bc873ef414", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-a0bc873ef414", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.14754098360655737, "p": 0.14754098360655737, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705652654738, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705652654965, "lastBetTime": 1705398640542, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-18 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-18 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=18", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=18", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F088ed6daa289.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-18 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-18 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "jqfEQzC9XctnOQEsHGRl", "creatorId": "P9LqyxXFS8PiM7dsnNDe6ZWkuec2", "creatorUsername": "regconnolly", "creatorName": "reg connolly", "createdTime": 1698962016667, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK4rLHZjzQMZfhNOfesaVVIQMtsUoXFpInKkADBqpsw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704049561774, "question": "Will the Irish government expel Israeli diplomats before end of 2023?", "slug": "will-the-irish-government-expel-isr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/regconnolly/will-the-irish-government-expel-isr", "pool": {"NO": 176.0159358956045, "YES": 794.7228906681062}, "probability": 0.07000000000000008, "p": 0.2536441131830515, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 721.847643273618, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704049561774, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "P9LqyxXFS8PiM7dsnNDe6ZWkuec2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704049562416, "lastBetTime": 1702893456333, "lastCommentTime": 1699036694286, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ireland and Israel have had fraught diplomatic relationships. Will that result in the current government expelling Israeli diplomats. The last time they expelled an Israeli diplomat was in 2010. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/02/ireland-criticism-israel-eu-palestinian-rights", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/02/ireland-criticism-israel-eu-palestinian-rights", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "w", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "3a5308a6-6d3c-429d-93e7-c3f30e9c3054", "url": "https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/02/ireland-criticism-israel-eu-palestinian-rights", "image": null, "title": "Ireland\u2019s criticism of Israel has made it an outlier in the EU. What lies behind it?  | Ireland | The Guardian", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Irish support for Palestinian rights stems partly from its own experience of colonialism and violence \u2013 but that\u2019s not all, says Irish Times columnist Una Mullaly", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israeli-politics", "politics-default", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Ireland and Israel have had fraught diplomatic relationships. Will that result in the current government expelling Israeli diplomats. The last time they expelled an Israeli diplomat was in 2010. \n\nhttps://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/02/ireland-criticism-israel-eu-palestinian-rights\n\nw\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "RedYiZuBYNG5lEt8JD0B", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1680714402987, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1684880805470, "question": "Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup? (NY Rangers)", "slug": "which-nhl-team-will-win-the-202223-dee5d22241bf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-nhl-team-will-win-the-202223-dee5d22241bf", "pool": {"NO": 83.33789451965, "YES": 2441.1178443001027}, "probability": 0.006770376650137385, "p": 0.166436341051814, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3748.438589857426, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684880805470, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684878634284, "lastBetTime": 1684878609981, "lastCommentTime": 1684878630422, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15734/ny-rangers/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15734/ny-rangers/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FYirDB9fXeH.png?alt=media&token=459f24de-e256-4845-9cf2-248770a6dcc1", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus"], "textDescription": "From https://metaculus.com/questions/15734/ny-rangers/"}, {"id": "F1VOr6VouMgi1AhDe6Jg", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1695664795820, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1696014000000, "question": "Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on September 29th than on September 28th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-46dae5dc4850", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-dji-close-higher-46dae5dc4850", "pool": {"NO": 107.91477871073569, "YES": 330.5211587719162}, "probability": 0.2703091398662684, "p": 0.5315266570174537, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 663.9050808026705, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696048591519, "resolutionProbability": 0.27, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696048589306, "lastBetTime": 1696013850151, "lastCommentTime": 1696048588833, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJI closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u0336p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1  3pm ET(7pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2Pm ET Close For September Only!!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F6sb_ayd9Bf.png?alt=media&token=9ae842e1-7c62-42e1-a9fb-1ec03bde62da", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FiV8nChzFo2.png?alt=media&token=78b1e1b2-9511-4078-806c-73c8662ca0ac", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance", "economics-default", "stocks"], "textDescription": "DJI closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)\n\nPredictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u0336p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 1  3pm ET(7pm UTC)\n\n1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2Pm ET Close For September Only!!\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]\nResolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS \n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nFor The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow \u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2"}, {"id": "yERnY5HzMICAavAsWY6D", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429173152, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707492900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4525ce464654", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4525ce464654", "pool": {"NO": 126.56960949103339, "YES": 157.27571660217924}, "probability": 0.09549402923633891, "p": 0.11597433389091877, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 86, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707503795889, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707503796124, "lastBetTime": 1707492312359, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-09 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbf1f49b9d598.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-09 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "ElwPvj0OA7nigtUtt1DY", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944135017, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708002000000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-01c28f4e3a84", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-01c28f4e3a84", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.22727272727272727, "p": 0.22727272727272727, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708032213281, "resolutionProbability": 0.23, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708032213557, "lastBetTime": 1707944145068, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-15 13:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F84cd61cd0b67.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-15 13:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 15:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "szl7LFAhu72n3VE02Zhy", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1677852970254, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678374125715, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Trump & Right Wing Anti-Trans Rhetoric Gets Scarier\" reach 90k views or more by 3/09 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-trump-right-wing", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-trump-right-wing", "pool": {"NO": 11244.26392316833, "YES": 81.97172900558144}, "probability": 0.9992700044359956, "p": 0.90891867656501, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11272.67142598353, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678374125715, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218620715, "lastBetTime": 1678374120865, "lastCommentTime": 1678359190616, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/nz5vJyp3HMU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/nz5vJyp3HMU", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhQijiFMX5P.png?alt=media&token=1ad2fd5a-d60a-4f2f-a42b-371b27bd7de0", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/nz5vJyp3HMU\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "sfRIvXvKk1rzyxsGgsmY", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1684280805755, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1685823286649, "question": "Will the US debt ceiling be raised before June 20?", "slug": "will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3", "pool": {"NO": 33918.27281338112, "YES": 231.1551680709781}, "probability": 0.9987212282876777, "p": 0.8418363939861332, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 36508.84609277242, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685823286649, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685823278258, "lastBetTime": 1685823278128, "lastCommentTime": 1685816134774, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 20, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Removing or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults and then raises the debt ceiling aftewards before the question deadline, that still counts as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question uses Eastern time.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F60S_wzqqFP.png?alt=media&token=04de4f2d-ab6b-40b4-967a-7f120fb7d280", "groupSlugs": ["debt-ceiling"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the US statutory debt ceiling is raised or suspended before June 20, otherwise NO.\n\nNotes:\n\nRemoving or temporarily suspending the debt ceiling counts as YES.\n\nOnly passage of US law counts for resolution. E.g. circumventing or ignoring the debt limit doesn't matter for this question. If the US defaults and then raises the debt ceiling aftewards before the question deadline, that still counts as YES.\n\nThis question uses Eastern time."}, {"id": "Fl4EQ29Vifr61kJKrRSU", "creatorId": "jwO79yttaPXUFrcuvnnttQWYMf73", "creatorUsername": "Wieneron", "creatorName": "Debaser", "createdTime": 1688372454591, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFrankB%2FN39PUr4lLq.jpg?alt=media&token=7fd326a7-d51d-485a-b72c-e3c06dcc26c5", "closeTime": 1690774526037, "question": "Will the Tel Aviv Metro start Operations in July 2023?", "slug": "will-the-tel-aviv-metro-start-opera", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/will-the-tel-aviv-metro-start-opera", "pool": {"NO": 31.13331963721339, "YES": 4185.008545315293}, "probability": 0.0025069138943602347, "p": 0.2525218419948682, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4255.555101383321, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690774526037, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690774497268, "lastBetTime": 1690774497113, "lastCommentTime": 1690100723525, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The red line, first to operate, of the Tel Aviv metro has been scheduled to launch many, many times.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Latest announcement has been that it will start operations this month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it finally happen?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "The red line, first to operate, of the Tel Aviv metro has been scheduled to launch many, many times.\n\nLatest announcement has been that it will start operations this month.\n\nWill it finally happen?"}, {"id": "YamUPlfVWCxbGilBL5fd", "creatorId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "creatorUsername": "Panfilo", "creatorName": "Panfilo", "createdTime": 1698283684686, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDavePanfilo%2Fako2NLf1kH.png?alt=media&token=e195d482-83bd-4544-a30c-2f62a625fa0b", "closeTime": 1712544176296, "question": "Will Roman Reigns break Hulk Hogan's world championship reign record with his current WWE title reign?", "slug": "will-roman-reigns-break-hulk-hogans", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-roman-reigns-break-hulk-hogans", "pool": {"NO": 32.179342611615425, "YES": 1570.1943730212122}, "probability": 0.02135489183039875, "p": 0.515680293727656, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3083.499463650374, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1712544176296, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "U6qF7eg8XLXRo4Xc077i1BdgHxx2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712544176296, "lastBetTime": 1712543697244, "lastCommentTime": 1707434656059, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Roman Reigns is still on his current world championship title reign as of the end of April 7th, 2024. Notably, that date is also the second night of Wrestlemania 40. If there is any substantial ambiguity in the WWE storyline as to whether Hogan's record of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1,474 days ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "was broken by Roman, this will resolve No.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["wrestling", "wwe", "sports-default", "combat-sports", "entertainment", "records"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if Roman Reigns is still on his current world championship title reign as of the end of April 7th, 2024. Notably, that date is also the second night of Wrestlemania 40. If there is any substantial ambiguity in the WWE storyline as to whether Hogan's record of 1,474 days was broken by Roman, this will resolve No."}, {"id": "GYX3Hpb6G3nGjDa1g713", "creatorId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "creatorUsername": "JoeBrenton", "creatorName": "Joe Brenton", "createdTime": 1680372186356, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoeBrenton%2F7EBF6000-151E-4A4A-B4F9-28650910EC6E.jpeg?alt=media&token=ae4013bc-6a40-4643-9a58-3b7a49276e37", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will there be a funding commitment of at least $1 billion in 2023 to a program for mitigating AI risk?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-funding-commitment", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-there-be-a-funding-commitment", "pool": {"NO": 2260.1886763914104, "YES": 39528.75960939144}, "probability": 0.030517200470824787, "p": 0.3550550640707029, "totalLiquidity": 6285, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 46146.23935140789, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704119340727, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "uniqueBettorCount": 74, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704119341424, "lastBetTime": 1704085681850, "lastCommentTime": 1690138983134, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Lex and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate whether there will be a huge funding commitment to a program toward mitigating AI risk.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Lex hopes it will happen; Eliezer doesn't believe it will happen. The discussion specifies a $1 billion threshold, but with no specific timeframe.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if there is a prize offer or other funding commitment made in 2023, equivalent to at least US$1 billion, toward understanding and mitigating AI risk.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The program has to be a $1 billion budget commitment to a prize or to a coordinated effort by a single umbrella organization, but can be supported and funded by any combination of government or private sources.  The funding only has to be committed by end of 2023, as opposed to provided or spent by end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As reference, the Manhatten Project cost nearly $2 billion (equivalent to $24 billion in 2021).  ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Ff9KzE75eJM.png?alt=media&token=f6003e44-4aaf-4414-8af1-a78cc9bff9f9", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "ai-risk", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "On the Lex Fridman Podcast #368, Lex and Eliezer Yudkowsky debate whether there will be a huge funding commitment to a program toward mitigating AI risk.\n\nhttps://youtube.com/clip/UgkxXHBY4k3r6n7Ab6I4qUWbxmJExTdsTQgD\n\n\nLex hopes it will happen; Eliezer doesn't believe it will happen. The discussion specifies a $1 billion threshold, but with no specific timeframe.\n\nThis market resolves to YES if there is a prize offer or other funding commitment made in 2023, equivalent to at least US$1 billion, toward understanding and mitigating AI risk.\n\nThe program has to be a $1 billion budget commitment to a prize or to a coordinated effort by a single umbrella organization, but can be supported and funded by any combination of government or private sources.  The funding only has to be committed by end of 2023, as opposed to provided or spent by end of 2023.\n\nAs reference, the Manhatten Project cost nearly $2 billion (equivalent to $24 billion in 2021).  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project"}, {"id": "ASlfWKaBXMET3xU25DCJ", "creatorId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "creatorUsername": "DismalScientist", "creatorName": "DismalScientist", "createdTime": 1675624800393, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDismalScientist%2F_trI0_uAPH.png?alt=media&token=35fa7626-92cc-4b8b-8b16-0ce5136b681e", "closeTime": 1686812223136, "question": "Will Zion Williamson be a top-10 NBA player at the end of the 2022-23 NBA season?", "slug": "will-zion-williamson-be-a-top10-nba", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-zion-williamson-be-a-top10-nba", "pool": {"NO": 73.37914794888587, "YES": 720.0180562770662}, "probability": 0.032305307905979394, "p": 0.24674496191307124, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 732.264414332581, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1686812223136, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685676702187, "lastBetTime": 1685676702054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to the Ringer's rankings. He is currently number 11. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rankings", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rankings", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FzZDi4dLP2l.png?alt=media&token=ee292f8e-80a3-4b25-87a4-4575054f8ba3", "textDescription": "According to the Ringer's rankings. He is currently number 11. https://nbarankings.theringer.com/rankings"}, {"id": "PlVDP7JamRoGHOgfJCZ6", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1699830066822, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700377734620, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will New Mexico beat Fresno State?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-new-mexico-beat-fr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-new-mexico-beat-fr", "pool": {"NO": 837.9128093188012, "YES": 0.3252455600810191}, "probability": 0.9993329653315024, "p": 0.36770209125980247, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1289.5467848519893, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700377734620, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700377079142, "lastBetTime": 1700377079000, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-18 at 10:30 PM ET in Fresno, CA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Line: Fresno State -24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: New Mexico 5, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fresno State 15", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: New Mexico 1, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Fresno State 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "mountain-west-conference"], "textDescription": "2023-11-18 at 10:30 PM ET in Fresno, CA.\n\nLine: Fresno State -24.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: New Mexico 5, Fresno State 15, Tie 0\n\nLast 5: New Mexico 1, Fresno State 4, Tie 0"}, {"id": "4pYt8MbNdFeJF43Nue0t", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1707012172179, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1710287003123, "question": "Will Biden lose any delegates in the 2024 Democratic Primary?", "slug": "will-biden-lose-any-delegates-in-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-biden-lose-any-delegates-in-th", "pool": {"NO": 25233.62119613382, "YES": 55.16684873412669}, "probability": 0.9991678153323422, "p": 0.7241324187653438, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25586.245317748908, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710287003123, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456540419, "lastBetTime": 1710286986711, "lastCommentTime": 1710286966758, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", will Joe Biden lose a single delegate in the primary race?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Biden loses a single delegate in any primary or caucus, this immediately resolves YES. Otherwise, Resolves NO at the DNC convention when Biden is officially made the nominee.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2Ffe9970ef99c7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "the-life-of-biden", "democratic-party", "2024-primaries", "2024-democratic-primaries"], "textDescription": "According to Wikipedia, will Joe Biden lose a single delegate in the primary race?\n\nIf Biden loses a single delegate in any primary or caucus, this immediately resolves YES. Otherwise, Resolves NO at the DNC convention when Biden is officially made the nominee."}, {"id": "cnbvVYMswaO6qmM74xPM", "creatorId": "LTxdwMZvemUdpLVOAHKRPuivGwV2", "creatorUsername": "Iamczecksy", "creatorName": "iamczecksy", "createdTime": 1696463234524, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJillCzeck%2FiyD-BVwbJp.png?alt=media&token=f14f450b-9a90-49b6-ad34-5df471ce456d", "closeTime": 1696821365161, "question": "Will the Minnesota Twins win the ALDS game 2 vs the Houston Astros?", "slug": "will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-al-b7595c5d11a7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Iamczecksy/will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-al-b7595c5d11a7", "pool": {"NO": 974.8326900290127, "YES": 51.947662799446114}, "probability": 0.96, "p": 0.5611978037350764, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1126.960468578724, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696821376521, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696819837652, "lastBetTime": 1696819837007, "lastCommentTime": 1696517921963, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game 2 in Houston", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pablo Lopez @ Framber Valdez ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["baseball", "mlb"], "textDescription": "Game 2 in Houston\n\nPablo Lopez @ Framber Valdez "}, {"id": "wzn2IsUCwqiz8na7xRcj", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081727578, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703372400000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 23 than it closed on December 22?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-439f05da5581", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-439f05da5581", "pool": {"NO": 671.251146310522, "YES": 49.823788319119465}, "probability": 0.9290286456322875, "p": 0.49280360466685724, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1104.3540960877729, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703379792101, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703379788115, "lastBetTime": 1703375029049, "lastCommentTime": 1703379787706, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F9b90ccf449ad.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "numNQJTApCbXNDLOsOcj", "creatorId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "creatorUsername": "DanMan314", "creatorName": "Dan", "createdTime": 1696432646271, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDanMan314%2F_f4i8nH8a6.jpg?alt=media&token=d2ff79f8-0cea-4acc-99e0-a993f643533a", "closeTime": 1698256644575, "question": "Will the next speaker of the US House of Representatives not be a member of the US House of Representatives?", "slug": "will-the-next-speaker-of-the-us-hou", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-us-hou", "pool": {"NO": 518.2329788732015, "YES": 4299.897824919576}, "probability": 0.009680247390900327, "p": 0.07501990201197663, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7389.994245183609, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698256644575, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698256632485, "lastBetTime": 1698256632328, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's allowed, and names from Trump to Schwarzenegger have been floated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves upon the election of a new Speaker (not pro tempore). If they are not a representative in the house at the time of their election, resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["speaker-of-the-house-election", "us-politics", "118th-congress"], "textDescription": "It's allowed, and names from Trump to Schwarzenegger have been floated.\n\nResolves upon the election of a new Speaker (not pro tempore). If they are not a representative in the house at the time of their election, resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO."}, {"id": "Vyhb6OarqPxsp5Qzn6aY", "creatorId": "zssVPLqijpVK2ZUriKKznMW2mhS2", "creatorUsername": "TenShino", "creatorName": "Punished Ten Shino", "createdTime": 1685651785811, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTenShino%2FJisHOe4pUV.jpg?alt=media&token=74f0ec08-a635-41ca-bbf5-dc271bcac725", "closeTime": 1690243140000, "question": "Will the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party get more than 95 seats in the Spanish general election (2023)?", "slug": "will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-b71db7af22b9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TenShino/will-the-spanish-socialist-workers-b71db7af22b9", "pool": {"NO": 1439.6933367728482, "YES": 133.5355870977024}, "probability": 0.9862989165520908, "p": 0.869740599960547, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1541.0049054054243, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690259289814, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690242175444, "lastBetTime": 1690242175298, "lastCommentTime": 1685993703832, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) got 120 seats.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRpDboYHbla.png?alt=media&token=0fe5b832-28e0-4d3a-95ee-3b2d03808839", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "spain", "elections-world"], "textDescription": "The spanish general election will be held on Sunday, 23 July 2023. 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election. In the 2019 general election PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) got 120 seats.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election"}, {"id": "eeFg0CuuLoUJ3iu4XFYt", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1707677465243, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1710543064181, "question": "[Metaculus] Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile ac...before the 15th of March?", "slug": "metaculus-will-the-submarine-cables", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-the-submarine-cables", "pool": {"NO": 62.245093611369725, "YES": 4258.206679271419}, "probability": 0.009335126605490164, "p": 0.3919629973126642, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8634.119366333734, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710543064181, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710543064933, "lastBetTime": 1710542899817, "lastCommentTime": 1709066831914, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/data-infrastructure-in-the-red-sea/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21394/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before March 15, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "credible sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21394/data-infrastructure-in-the-red-sea/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2Fdf0068b1a5f4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus"], "textDescription": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21394/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before March 15, 2024, credible sources report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "zhIvlTuIes5W3cgwjSio", "creatorId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "creatorUsername": "EnopoletusHarding", "creatorName": "Enopoletus Harding", "createdTime": 1658015269626, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEnopoletusHarding%2FB0JxqG3_oN.jpg?alt=media&token=2abc3d64-965d-4b1e-95ad-95807cd293b0", "closeTime": 1660622340000, "question": "Will Manifold ever fix the free response markets chart?", "slug": "will-manifold-ever-fix-the-free-res", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-manifold-ever-fix-the-free-res", "pool": {"NO": 177.36654096752343, "YES": 56.380419584497915}, "probability": 0.758797207667005, "p": 0.4999999999999996, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 247.485695160577, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699206539528, "resolutionProbability": 0.76, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698936995174, "lastBetTime": 1659767141899, "lastCommentTime": 1698936994648, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/face-with-most-unique-betters-in-it", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/face-with-most-unique-betters-in-it", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["bugs", "please-resolve"], "textDescription": "Here:\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/face-with-most-unique-betters-in-it"}, {"id": "Qi3mxFyvEdu2o5PPzhzj", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1672205735575, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1688615940000, "question": "Will Google Chrome have over 65% market share in worldwide browser usage in June 2023?", "slug": "will-google-chrome-have-over-65-mar", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-have-over-65-mar", "pool": {"NO": 119.87018569396791, "YES": 14404.102295065586}, "probability": 0.003473304090731626, "p": 0.2951896672940788, "totalLiquidity": 770, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14693.012161476609, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688916612781, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688916622671, "lastBetTime": 1688524306927, "lastCommentTime": 1688916620192, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to the statistics from StatCounter:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FO7hXAz0JQT.png?alt=media&token=2adfb433-db40-49ec-b79d-e444b6d46b0d", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default"], "textDescription": "Resolution according to the statistics from StatCounter:\n\nhttps://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share\n\n"}, {"id": "4ksSj4uraDNX0BjMvLE9", "creatorId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "creatorUsername": "Conflux", "creatorName": "Conflux", "createdTime": 1673731720213, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FConflux%2FIaFDTz3rB-.png?alt=media&token=d064eaf3-f07d-4e16-9cdd-373b64a5cd17", "closeTime": 1681455540000, "question": "Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)", "slug": "will-bidens-classified-documents-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-bidens-classified-documents-be", "pool": {"NO": 6075.831738531116, "YES": 627.9176833663386}, "probability": 0.9044972954599843, "p": 0.4946401197626587, "totalLiquidity": 1990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23605.943300101975, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1681533302123, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 183, "lastUpdatedTime": 1681532325012, "lastBetTime": 1681451351873, "lastCommentTime": 1681532321255, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist 3 months from today (on April 14th) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Conservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 3, 7:00am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden", "classified-documents"], "textDescription": "Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident\n\nResolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist 3 months from today (on April 14th) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly. \n\nConservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject.\n\nI will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced.\n\nGeneral policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.\n\nFeb 3, 7:00am: Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? \u2192 Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)"}, {"id": "AhyTtPvYd2qHBG50ZRDF", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623926303, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704783600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-87bca8e3a7c2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-87bca8e3a7c2", "pool": {"NO": 96.4638951782693, "YES": 62.01378878659592}, "probability": 0.2500000000000002, "p": 0.17647359907056168, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25.390866047087528, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704822829805, "resolutionProbability": 0.25, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704822830045, "lastBetTime": 1704783393379, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-09 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-09 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fae8b7b9b3f4d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-09 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-09 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "WbRvBlbNRXLvwfPc0Pv8", "creatorId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "creatorUsername": "Wobbles", "creatorName": "Wobbles", "createdTime": 1670279773946, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDesTiny%2FVcG84GgOe9.gif?alt=media&token=6b3bc04c-dcce-4100-9e8e-ad0f7255d2ca", "closeTime": 1670707200000, "question": "Will more than 3 goals be scored in the France vs England game?", "slug": "will-more-than-3-goals-be-scored-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-more-than-3-goals-be-scored-in", "pool": {"NO": 108.42134022893856, "YES": 2878.8637393903778}, "probability": 0.006707187455549857, "p": 0.15203613936313595, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4997.957575899045, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1670768242309, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670706598598, "lastBetTime": 1670706598446, "lastCommentTime": 1670616647079, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will more than 3 goals be scored during the France and England game on Saturday? Shoot-out goals do not count", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-10 3:20 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F1jJFyClx2b.png?alt=media&token=003acf63-42b8-4538-b313-cd91817eaba2", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "Will more than 3 goals be scored during the France and England game on Saturday? Shoot-out goals do not count\n\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-10 3:20 pm"}, {"id": "z2SHl0PL8rEFbhAAr4gu", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1699834507424, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1702667700000, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on December 15th than it closed on December 8th? {WEEKLY}", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-f29dc7859a2d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-f29dc7859a2d", "pool": {"NO": 217.6534483796597, "YES": 198.02739428654294}, "probability": 0.5418088473102787, "p": 0.5182738727415866, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 319.2465194843978, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702678865728, "resolutionProbability": 0.54, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702678850603, "lastBetTime": 1702667322203, "lastCommentTime": 1702678849808, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 215pm ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : 12/08/2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FVWIZZ0x8JC.png?alt=media&token=e874fae4-2ba4-44d2-a019-1e4ed3d557ee", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "sccsq4", "stocks", "stock-marketweekly", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)\n\nVIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.\n\nPredictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close : 12/08/2023\n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\n"}, {"id": "N998m9BWfwDqwtzmkxTi", "creatorId": "KsLPvmOdRQasgOu2FQXdsSWh7ln2", "creatorUsername": "EnopoletusHarding", "creatorName": "Enopoletus Harding", "createdTime": 1652661327831, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEnopoletusHarding%2FB0JxqG3_oN.jpg?alt=media&token=2abc3d64-965d-4b1e-95ad-95807cd293b0", "closeTime": 1666497540000, "question": "Will Marco Rubio win Miami-Dade county in the general election in 2022?", "slug": "will-marco-rubio-win-miamidade-coun", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-marco-rubio-win-miamidade-coun", "pool": {"NO": 149.23396048108827, "YES": 132.05316336694978}, "probability": 0.5399999999999988, "p": 0.5095068454427956, "totalLiquidity": 140.14268727705112, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 117.79292842171782, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1669848985479, "resolutionProbability": 0.5399999999999988, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1666474862788, "lastBetTime": 1666474861344, "description": "He lost it by 11 points in his previous Senate race; can he win it in a Biden midterm?", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "He lost it by 11 points in his previous Senate race; can he win it in a Biden midterm?"}, {"id": "BQMpaEX3ucYGcBnvdxSm", "creatorId": "JeSQzLyoMcdweiCcVZFKB4kPqrm1", "creatorUsername": "Thomas42", "creatorName": "Thomas M", "createdTime": 1690576726052, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcmVlYxKar6rpaFjIDZikjjf0e6oIUuZrUY36_9aQdCQ68=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693605540000, "question": "Will Swiss consumer prices rise by more than 1.7% YoY in Q3?", "slug": "will-swiss-consumer-prices-rise-by", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Thomas42/will-swiss-consumer-prices-rise-by", "pool": {"NO": 88.6666666666667, "YES": 91.31414809333606}, "probability": 0.47831623266395756, "p": 0.4856619850409608, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693635546481, "resolutionProbability": 0.48, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693635537920, "lastBetTime": 1690588624885, "lastCommentTime": 1693635537240, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/preise/landesindex-konsumentenpreise/indexierung.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/preise/landesindex-konsumentenpreise/indexierung.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fe55820d-e619-41cf-bf7e-2c12dd646e2b", "url": "https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/preise/landesindex-konsumentenpreise/indexierung.html", "image": "https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/_jcr_content/socialshareimage.imagespooler.png/1628245783547/ch-wappen-1000x1000.png", "title": "Indexierung", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Teurungsausgleich, Wertsicherung, Indexierungstabelle, Teuerungsrechner", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "According to https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/preise/landesindex-konsumentenpreise/indexierung.html\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "irbE1Mwr7ZDuqZ7Gm73x", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883832446, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703979000000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-77b7572833a3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-77b7572833a3", "pool": {"NO": 73.6381739318444, "YES": 38.37757868459474}, "probability": 0.17000000000000037, "p": 0.09644906644354935, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704098142152, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704098142399, "lastBetTime": 1703929820734, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-30 23:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 01:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F19aeb006646c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-30 23:30 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 01:30 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "fV1f8u1SJumX8unX4gQj", "creatorId": "FqIJ4zkN3bSech9pZxOuF3jSA9L2", "creatorUsername": "Daconomist", "creatorName": "Daconom", "createdTime": 1688811296374, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDaconomist%2FTudS9-YDdA.jpeg?alt=media&token=cd1554be-61c7-4784-992c-78f0485546ad", "closeTime": 1688829436028, "question": "Will Max Verstappen take pole position for the 2023 Formula 1 British Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-max-verstappen-take-pole-posit", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Daconomist/will-max-verstappen-take-pole-posit", "pool": {"NO": 8572.735933358981, "YES": 48.73931375380323}, "probability": 0.9982351223499951, "p": 0.762792586950181, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10014.149110181123, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688829436028, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688829490286, "lastBetTime": 1688829433908, "lastCommentTime": 1688829486830, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Max Verstappen is the number-one qualifying driver at the 2023 Formula 1 British Grand Prix (Silverstone). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "Resolves as YES if Max Verstappen is the number-one qualifying driver at the 2023 Formula 1 British Grand Prix (Silverstone). "}, {"id": "lvgfXKnfjVXRlQ6JGzny", "creatorId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "creatorUsername": "wilsonkime", "creatorName": "Wilson Kime", "createdTime": 1704745866958, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwilsonkime%2F-5BFN4xL60.png?alt=media&token=9df750be-56e2-4d9a-97e6-3b1946ddd776", "closeTime": 1713037790868, "question": "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of the petitioners (Sheetz) in Sheetz vs County of El Dorado?", "slug": "will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-cf1d4cbb4c6f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favo-cf1d4cbb4c6f", "pool": {"NO": 807.8279668647656, "YES": 44.70343399405067}, "probability": 0.9796150765358256, "p": 0.7267241672906305, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 777.0038583705867, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713037790868, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "rzqsLOz6k8PH88JIzdGmH7CmAw73", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713037790868, "lastBetTime": 1713001999163, "lastCommentTime": 1712954352047, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It can sometimes be hard to define exactly who won in a court case, but if Sheetz we'd expect something like ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the court rules the Nollan/Dolan test applies to building permit fees", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "the court rules based on some other test that the fees are unconstitutional ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close as soon as the decision comes out and resolve hopefully soon after. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/wilsonkime%2F333af75de51e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["court-cases", "scotus", "supreme-court"], "textDescription": "It can sometimes be hard to define exactly who won in a court case, but if Sheetz we'd expect something like \n\nthe court rules the Nollan/Dolan test applies to building permit fees\n\nthe court rules based on some other test that the fees are unconstitutional \n\nI will close as soon as the decision comes out and resolve hopefully soon after. "}, {"id": "eGkG9eNua53vdtq70eoX", "creatorId": "c1tT08TM3Vh2Wu8ct0uEoxhJPe32", "creatorUsername": "iteal", "creatorName": "iteal", "createdTime": 1675850213024, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fiteal%2FRkaZBBZvrE.jpg?alt=media&token=12ddc598-7bc7-4c3b-999a-89a105fc9d76", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2023?", "slug": "will-destiny-publish-a-manifesto-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/iteal/will-destiny-publish-a-manifesto-in", "pool": {"NO": 714.9216397288941, "YES": 31157.000894998477}, "probability": 0.01580533677780463, "p": 0.41172115558067657, "totalLiquidity": 4218.25, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 528883.3965515377, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704129434647, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 879, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715704776418, "lastBetTime": 1715704776418, "lastCommentTime": 1704129427729, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will get resolved YES if Destiny writes and publishes a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will get resolved NO if Destiny does not write and publish a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will close at 23:59, Dec 31st, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 2}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the \"N-word Manifesto\" like e.g. \"The Mr. Girl Manifesto\", it's a manifesto. Even if Destiny explicitly says it is not a manifesto but the community calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If neither Destiny or the community call it a manifesto, then it's not a manifesto.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To ensure that there is enough time for the community to \"come up\" with a name for the publication, I will close the market as soon as I hear about it. Then I will wait 1 week to resolve.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am active on the subreddit and watch the streams/videos. I will resolve accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: My subjective experience about the name of the publication will be the deciding factor. Any posts/comments on Manifold will not affect my decision. You can however discuss the rules and I may be convinced to alter them.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fk5-Yb7QmmT.png?alt=media&token=2b9ebe69-7421-48dd-9a3d-c35883f3663c", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will get resolved YES if Destiny writes and publishes a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59.\n\nWill get resolved NO if Destiny does not write and publish a manifesto publically before Dec 31st 2023, 23:59.\n\nMarket will close at 23:59, Dec 31st, 2023.\n\nEdit:\n\nIf Destiny calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.\n\nIf the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the \"N-word Manifesto\" like e.g. \"The Mr. Girl Manifesto\", it's a manifesto. Even if Destiny explicitly says it is not a manifesto but the community calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.\n\nIf neither Destiny or the community call it a manifesto, then it's not a manifesto.\n\nTo ensure that there is enough time for the community to \"come up\" with a name for the publication, I will close the market as soon as I hear about it. Then I will wait 1 week to resolve.\n\nI am active on the subreddit and watch the streams/videos. I will resolve accordingly.\n\nDisclaimer: My subjective experience about the name of the publication will be the deciding factor. Any posts/comments on Manifold will not affect my decision. You can however discuss the rules and I may be convinced to alter them."}, {"id": "OXe1wUH1Xze9VpPUAvpI", "creatorId": "oexErZVW05bPTzaGO3tZacdEPTI3", "creatorUsername": "3sChance", "creatorName": "3sChance", "createdTime": 1697464740025, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKaQfOiihkTx34tUYNLG2qT0LExpBmIKVJD1jY_Lb-tlTs=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712248133637, "question": "Will Zion Williamson play at least 65 games in the 2023-24 regular season?", "slug": "will-zion-williamson-play-at-least", "url": "https://manifold.markets/3sChance/will-zion-williamson-play-at-least", "pool": {"NO": 6063.607099430212, "YES": 14.185750828934943}, "probability": 0.9970431015005303, "p": 0.44098411149060873, "totalLiquidity": 448.75, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6274.670800019838, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712248133637, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "cA1JupYR5AR8btHUs2xvkui7jA93", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712248202618, "lastBetTime": 1712196234827, "lastCommentTime": 1712248201787, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Does Zion get injured & miss 17 or more games this season?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "basketball", "nba"], "textDescription": "Does Zion get injured & miss 17 or more games this season?"}, {"id": "VdgOfFrbMsAl0TSbu1Yd", "creatorId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "creatorUsername": "Fion", "creatorName": "Fion", "createdTime": 1716590276992, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFion%2Ff0dUbpMbfK.webp?alt=media&token=a5756953-9fb6-4763-9c2e-6bc532e44aed", "closeTime": 1716671458975, "question": "Will somebody create a Manifold UK General Election Projection?", "slug": "will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-somebody-create-a-manifold-uk", "pool": {"NO": 9949.874371066206, "YES": 100.50378152592111}, "probability": 0.9899999999999999, "p": 0.49999999999999656, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9510.615882561935, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716671458975, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716671846713, "lastBetTime": 1716671435994, "lastCommentTime": 1716671845411, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are markets on Manifold for every constituency in the upcoming UK general election but as far as I know, nobody has written some code to extract the leader in each constituency to create a seat projection. Will somebody do this by market close in one week? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to take this market's liquidity as a sort of bounty if you want to create this. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you add in other features like sensitivity analysis, live updating, or a colour-coded map I will be very impressed and grateful and will maybe put up a NO limit order for you to take as a thank you. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Needs to be freely available to others to resolve YES. If you just tell me you have a private one, that doesn't count. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Fion/6aded1e0d933.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "-uk-general-election-2024", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "There are markets on Manifold for every constituency in the upcoming UK general election but as far as I know, nobody has written some code to extract the leader in each constituency to create a seat projection. Will somebody do this by market close in one week? \n\nFeel free to take this market's liquidity as a sort of bounty if you want to create this. \n\nIf you add in other features like sensitivity analysis, live updating, or a colour-coded map I will be very impressed and grateful and will maybe put up a NO limit order for you to take as a thank you. \n\nNeeds to be freely available to others to resolve YES. If you just tell me you have a private one, that doesn't count. "}, {"id": "58S4YHtzwGW4acIjOL2Q", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1694723747243, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1699464459753, "question": "Will a Democrat win the Kentucky gubernatorial election?", "slug": "will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-a-democrat-win-the-kentucky-gu", "pool": {"NO": 46617.23671762679, "YES": 247.92764012848448}, "probability": 0.9990120825242449, "p": 0.8432133803819669, "totalLiquidity": 640, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 69843.9280702741, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699464459753, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 56, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456545222, "lastBetTime": 1699464435229, "lastCommentTime": 1699453991685, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Democrat wins the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 7, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Determination of the winner of the 2023 U.S. Gubernatorial election for Kentucky will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2023 election results.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "2023-us-elections", "kentucky"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a Democrat wins the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 7, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\n\nDetermination of the winner of the 2023 U.S. Gubernatorial election for Kentucky will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, the final state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2023 election results."}, {"id": "SdK6dUDWZOQM0I9cZnGy", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701105224634, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701187200000, "question": "Will Allianz SE close higher november 28th than the close of november 27th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-58e6e95ffd69", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-novemb-58e6e95ffd69", "pool": {"NO": 38.423433370140835, "YES": 529.3314318792361}, "probability": 0.05608692080777214, "p": 0.4501204113867595, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 749.355879916761, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701191470942, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222345224, "lastBetTime": 1701186429229, "lastCommentTime": 1701191463854, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F3Y_He6A4rc.png?alt=media&token=317861f0-15f2-4cb5-a86e-9d446e172576", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "HDy6kS7g7kT7nkUojmtH", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703086444229, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703464010657, "question": "Will the Miami Dolphins beat the Dallas Cowboys in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-miami-dolphins-beat-the-da", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-miami-dolphins-beat-the-da", "pool": {"NO": 2144.903638641809, "YES": 47.72818599976506}, "probability": 0.9883126962889468, "p": 0.652980945959456, "totalLiquidity": 247.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4355.556374560955, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703464019454, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703464007188, "lastBetTime": 1703464007048, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Dolphins win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cowboys win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F63dae6e3fc65.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["dallas-cowboys", "football", "miami-dolphins", "nfl", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Dolphins win\n\nNo - Cowboys win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "bYW7JS01TU8dW7owscCg", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1696238664594, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1704108217848, "question": "Will Barbie gross $1.45 billion worldwide by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-barbie-gross-145-billion-world", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-145-billion-world", "pool": {"NO": 144.32316320835812, "YES": 3032.368086812766}, "probability": 0.019999999999999997, "p": 0.3001095743619625, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10148.297167977002, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704108217848, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704108218963, "lastBetTime": 1704108207412, "lastCommentTime": 1704108196522, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.43 billion worldwide.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It looked like $1.5 billion was on, but Manifold thinks that the film is going to fall a bit short of that number:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "klsyEPvPWYtnekgHiqbY", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billion-worldw"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4jv062Xyg10YmaSZV8Ti", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-15-billion-worldw"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it manage $1.45 billion?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this page at Box Office Mojo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1077904129/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.45 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weekly progress (worldwide gross as reported by Box Office Mojo each week):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7th August - $1.030 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "14th August - $1.184 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "21st August - $1.279 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "28th August - $1.340 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th September - $1.381 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "11th September - $1.403 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "18th September - $1.417 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "25th September - $1.427 billion", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd October - $1.433 billion", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["movies", "boxoffice", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "barbie"], "textDescription": "The Barbie film has been a huge success, already grossing $1.43 billion worldwide.\n\nIt looked like $1.5 billion was on, but Manifold thinks that the film is going to fall a bit short of that number:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-14-billion-worldw \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-barbie-gross-15-billion-worldw \n\nWill it manage $1.45 billion?\n\nI will use this page at Box Office Mojo as the source. If the worldwide total hits $1.45 billion (unless there's some sort of obvious glitch on the site), this will resolve to YES. If we reach the end of the year and it hasn't hit that number, the market will resolve to NO.\n\nWeekly progress (worldwide gross as reported by Box Office Mojo each week):\n\n7th August - $1.030 billion\n\n14th August - $1.184 billion\n\n21st August - $1.279 billion\n\n28th August - $1.340 billion\n\n4th September - $1.381 billion\n\n11th September - $1.403 billion\n\n18th September - $1.417 billion\n\n25th September - $1.427 billion\n\n2nd October - $1.433 billion"}, {"id": "3wIYI01Hq5FsXbwk6eSz", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1696296535459, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1696381800000, "question": "Will DL flight 415 from Seattle to Anchorage on 2023-10-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-dl-flight-415-from-seattle-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-dl-flight-415-from-seattle-to", "pool": {"NO": 377.1559217488208, "YES": 78.56429023799032}, "probability": 0.8428920141248835, "p": 0.5277624319034661, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 828.1049883392656, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696471691968, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696379636948, "lastBetTime": 1696379636242, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/yt2pta6x", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/yt2pta6x", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/yt2pta6x"}, {"id": "KVFDnCirNeIfcmJafpVJ", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701455268017, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701705600000, "question": "Will SAP close higher december 4th than the close of december 1th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-sap-close-higher-december-4th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-sap-close-higher-december-4th", "pool": {"NO": 84.59483637248827, "YES": 180.89601271085192}, "probability": 0.3384509935142667, "p": 0.5224459942255979, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 168.71503022409775, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701710335248, "resolutionProbability": 0.34, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222342057, "lastBetTime": 1701705534769, "lastCommentTime": 1701710331008, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FX1llNZZWaj.png?alt=media&token=ad9f0afa-5338-4d4f-b4d6-f76e863ed4e3", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos/e3ed94629c91.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=a%2BCdfVWkNCxN3%2BsqeFNt9fuVnben%2FA6dOfHPNr8wG04I6a8RElJE0RUA6%2B%2Bw6Lq7iVW1NPpYs7FXzWQOKLwe%2FSS10%2B7216FtMajHLoZEV0dZfsp8PJtOt%2Fo2y5bEp7CBOhd3QoqH2scOYUj8WwsgoatPM2zdo1taDbrisqmso1rOrQuBcDpd9hZVEMPRFkRV63gy9QcQhKAy4S%2FXVEXp%2FRnBE0ut5ITzS7sWXHPc1%2BwTyVptWiKLsFgzzrv%2F7qVL%2BXonH9R5INEuSWujlQs3odCFYwd2Ehdb3A4u6DpmZLKrJJbXmzvqdmx1Vwo%2FNyedjwM9epN3li3jLy4IHGY4KQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "rTCijYLeDftAB5uKInUj", "creatorId": "Dgi7jTdccAY8wgVeuzEjMIObaQM2", "creatorUsername": "metacontrarian", "creatorName": "Infohazard Assessor", "createdTime": 1686571720104, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmetacontrarian%2FyY9zd7m1ae.png?alt=media&token=02da6b0a-53ce-4c30-8d33-00906e8f2d46", "closeTime": 1687348651365, "question": "Will HaruInvest default before the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-haruinvest-default-before-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/metacontrarian/will-haruinvest-default-before-the", "pool": {"NO": 131, "YES": 19.083969465648877}, "probability": 0.8728447179695844, "p": 0.5000000000000002, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 81, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1687348651365, "resolutionProbability": 0.87, "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687287437548, "lastBetTime": 1687287437399, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients\u2019 money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "HaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "29309838-c912-47e0-8970-aa8bec8960e9", "url": " https://haruinvest.com/", "image": "https://static.haruinvest.com/landing/images/haru-og-image-main.png", "title": "Haru Invest - The Secure Way to Earn Crypto", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Earn up to 12% on your crypto investment with Haru Invest. Let experts handle your crypto.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fl-zsltePrp.png?alt=media&token=ba0b63d9-1bb3-4efe-a5c6-2d9eb486f3a0", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation"], "textDescription": "Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk \n\nThis question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.\n\nA temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.\n\nA halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.\n\nA halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.\n\nIf the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c.\n\nA hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.\n\nIf, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.\n\nIn cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients\u2019 money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is\n\nHaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "KQPKkgyJb3JeXxn96Yxe", "creatorId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "creatorUsername": "PassionFruit", "creatorName": "Passion Fruit", "createdTime": 1646598086065, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c", "closeTime": 1646762400000, "question": "Will Apple announce new products with M1 Pro or M1 Max chips at the March 8 event?", "slug": "will-apple-announce-new-products-wi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-apple-announce-new-products-wi", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.64, "p": 0.64, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 37.916671925266876, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1646773016113, "resolutionProbability": 0.64, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1646598086065, "description": "", "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "7xuXS0KYw8gNsN32tiI0", "creatorId": "M5sBWwGWx2bfKcTM3ZaBF2sCSNz2", "creatorUsername": "Quate", "creatorName": "Quate", "createdTime": 1667253404292, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FQuateLPs%2FHLrYojg0m_.23?alt=media&token=c0bfc992-7d7a-461a-aa70-265fc50b25a3", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will the A press count for Super Mario 64's A Button Challenge equal 15 on January 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma", "pool": {"NO": 86.15548003660427, "YES": 1952.9305078455732}, "probability": 0.014430870088637044, "p": 0.24919376803782106, "totalLiquidity": 220, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2331.297557264744, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704132062318, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "M5sBWwGWx2bfKcTM3ZaBF2sCSNz2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704132062613, "lastBetTime": 1688255166051, "lastCommentTime": 1668401394047, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge asks the question: What is the minimum number of A presses required to beat Super Mario 64 with 100% completion?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more info, read here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "A Button Challenge - Ukikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ukikipedia.net/wiki/A_Button_Challenge#cite_note-1", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are currently 15 remaining A presses for 100% completion. The source for this is actually somewhat tribal; the most recent reliable reference to this fact is at this timestamp of a video by Bismuth: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if on January 1, 2024, at 12am, the consensus among Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge experts is that exactly 15 A presses are currently required for 100% completion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Otherwise it resolves NO (which will occur only if the number is 14 or fewer.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-aabc71da36cb", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-994cbd8ef908", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-e7e3183e9365", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRLIHILy1Ce.png?alt=media&token=9296e5cb-69a2-44c9-a23a-b33e64cf92b3", "groupSlugs": ["super-mario-64", "nintendo", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "The Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge asks the question: What is the minimum number of A presses required to beat Super Mario 64 with 100% completion?\n\nFor more info, read here: A Button Challenge - Ukikipedia\n\nThere are currently 15 remaining A presses for 100% completion. The source for this is actually somewhat tribal; the most recent reliable reference to this fact is at this timestamp of a video by Bismuth: https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs\n\nThis market resolves YES if on January 1, 2024, at 12am, the consensus among Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge experts is that exactly 15 A presses are currently required for 100% completion. Otherwise it resolves NO (which will occur only if the number is 14 or fewer.)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-aabc71da36cb)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-994cbd8ef908)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Quate/will-the-a-press-count-for-super-ma-e7e3183e9365)"}, {"id": "ypWYsc02FAQTGUditxjC", "creatorId": "83fdWYsk7ZUaEU94Rv8T7TLPem12", "creatorUsername": "RyanWongebd5", "creatorName": "Ryan W", "createdTime": 1693856721188, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRyanWongebd5%2FWXD9HYdkto.jpeg?alt=media&token=6fc032dc-8950-43ef-8d5e-eaadbcd7cb2e", "closeTime": 1701964877568, "question": "Does Deion Sanders lead Colorado Buffalos to the 2023-2024 CFP National Championship game?", "slug": "does-deon-sanders-lead-colorado-buf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RyanWongebd5/does-deon-sanders-lead-colorado-buf", "pool": {"NO": 132.40824490550176, "YES": 3513.8377454327056}, "probability": 0.004078877430579561, "p": 0.09803315100480467, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4585.1895227234145, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701964877568, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701646953036, "lastBetTime": 1701646950214, "lastCommentTime": 1701643850725, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "University of Colorado Buffalos are led by Coach Prime (Deion Sanders) and are underdogs to make the college national championship.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the University of Colorado are in the finals, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the University of Colorado does not appear in the finals this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "college-football", "football"], "textDescription": "University of Colorado Buffalos are led by Coach Prime (Deion Sanders) and are underdogs to make the college national championship.\n\nIf the University of Colorado are in the finals, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf the University of Colorado does not appear in the finals this market will resolve to NO.\n\n"}, {"id": "uPT3rWwDPyqEbgGBaIkd", "creatorId": "ees9Sl8QgyWqVm3sHtvv66Kzqfq2", "creatorUsername": "JakeWasserman", "creatorName": "Jake Wasserman", "createdTime": 1672344315437, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7AmVr7Nz1fManhY2zKDb10nCCe5J4-YUYerr7MYg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682924340000, "question": "Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-the-raid-on-andrew-tates-roman", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JakeWasserman/will-the-raid-on-andrew-tates-roman", "pool": {"NO": 13.60595688251469, "YES": 8829.02840175645}, "probability": 0.005024928683320306, "p": 0.766201602597554, "totalLiquidity": 1990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16939.177960639267, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683510882642, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 144, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683511559288, "lastBetTime": 1682921093727, "lastCommentTime": 1683511556130, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "allegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will criminal charges follow?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "as long as the charges are directly based on the events of the raid itself, &/or the Romanian investigation that the raid is part of.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please feel free to ask me about hypothetical edge cases.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/surse-perchezitii-diicot-tristan-tate-andrew-tate-sechestrare-fete-tristan-tate-bianca-dragusanu-4394856/amp", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/andrew-tates-luxury-villa-reportedly-raided-by-armed-police-in-romania-2019584/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/andrew-tates-luxury-villa-reportedly-raided-by-armed-police-in-romania-2019584/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 31, 7:06pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before 5/1/2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FXp5bNieeK2.png?alt=media&token=a48ac49c-2670-4109-a35c-6d5d2967e542", "groupSlugs": ["culture-default"], "textDescription": "Romanian police did an unannounced armed raid on Tate's home today,\n\nallegedly connected to kidnapping of two underage girls.\n\nWill criminal charges follow?\n\nClarificarion: I will resolve to YES if criminal charges are filed in any court, not strictly Romania,\n\nas long as the charges are directly based on the events of the raid itself, &/or the Romanian investigation that the raid is part of.\n\nPlease feel free to ask me about hypothetical edge cases.\n\nhttps://www.libertatea.ro/stiri/surse-perchezitii-diicot-tristan-tate-andrew-tate-sechestrare-fete-tristan-tate-bianca-dragusanu-4394856/amp\n\nhttps://www.dexerto.com/entertainment/andrew-tates-luxury-villa-reportedly-raided-by-armed-police-in-romania-2019584/\n\nDec 31, 7:06pm: Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before 5/1/2023? \u2192 Will the raid on Andrew Tate's Romanian villa lead to criminal charges before May 1, 2023?"}, {"id": "wYhyVMSQbhrm0sJOaexO", "creatorId": "GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1", "creatorUsername": "RemNi", "creatorName": "RemNi", "createdTime": 1713051039711, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRemNiFHfMN%2FJIn_KY_3MP.gif?alt=media&token=471c991f-4539-46e9-aad4-a4c719e99ff1", "closeTime": 1714551205459, "question": "Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before May 2024?", "slug": "will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777", "pool": {"NO": 643.9975991621301, "YES": 3685.2360020555725}, "probability": 0.011147133374543518, "p": 0.060598755953114876, "totalLiquidity": 780, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10864.068645180041, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714551205459, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "GPlNcdBrcfZ3PiAfhnI9mQfHZbm1", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714551205459, "lastBetTime": 1714059162557, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by May 1st 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions with the same criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wYhyVMSQbhrm0sJOaexO", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777"}}, {"text": " (this question)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sOt10oViKCGsTNPdaOY7", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "HyilfuCmfROgmaOITLmE", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Q7VlK5xDSFC7T3UImjvo", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "7h24smrseOe6bf8M6GgC", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DaV0m6SVc1mkaeZhHjNX", "label": "/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtwekHVy_vP.png?alt=media&token=ffb9a27b-dc4c-4a6a-8a5d-6adbaac49c86", "groupSlugs": ["iran", "middle-east", "nuclear-risk"], "textDescription": "Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by May 1st 2024\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204 \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8 "}, {"id": "xpscTCm1bBenpTuGi9bw", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702318448202, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702407600000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on December 12 than it did on December 11?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-fd7fdeca2925", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-fd7fdeca2925", "pool": {"NO": 71.89384354865955, "YES": 2436.4274629011206}, "probability": 0.010914429636974834, "p": 0.27217851255791875, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3031.0201321404734, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702417415731, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702417409771, "lastBetTime": 1702407325379, "lastCommentTime": 1702417409099, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F303c36ca7d5b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "yE8f3W3mtUEbTWbIpNPk", "creatorId": "igi2zGXsfxYPgB0DJTXVJVmwCOr2", "creatorUsername": "Austin", "creatorName": "Austin", "createdTime": 1676070697810, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiZyl1lBehuBMGyJYJhZd-N-mstaUtgE4xdI22lLw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will Manifold receive funding from OpenPhil in 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-receive-funding-from", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-receive-funding-from", "pool": {"NO": 295.2213409269079, "YES": 8402.262205767396}, "probability": 0.021918289369194124, "p": 0.3894223663169456, "totalLiquidity": 1370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20659.708920954363, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704175488306, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704175488595, "lastBetTime": 1703911985529, "lastCommentTime": 1677204332987, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Manifold receives any meaningful amount of funding from OpenPhil this year, or a meaningful commitment for funding (if the money doesn't arrive by end of year).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We previously have not received any funding from OpenPhil; see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Manifold's funding history on OpenBook.fyi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://openbook.fyi/org/Manifold%20Markets", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". We've recently inquired about the application process, but new forecasting grants are on pause while OpenPhil ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recruits a program associate for the forecasting space", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/openphilanthropy/fc3e54ae-8f2e-4181-92ae-fca347fcffee", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (incidentally, if you think you might be a good candidate for the role, please consider applying!)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FPv9eG-oqSY.png?alt=media&token=6391e6e1-5f9b-409c-ab44-2119b5072bab", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "open-philanthropy", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Manifold receives any meaningful amount of funding from OpenPhil this year, or a meaningful commitment for funding (if the money doesn't arrive by end of year).\n\nWe previously have not received any funding from OpenPhil; see Manifold's funding history on OpenBook.fyi. We've recently inquired about the application process, but new forecasting grants are on pause while OpenPhil recruits a program associate for the forecasting space (incidentally, if you think you might be a good candidate for the role, please consider applying!)"}, {"id": "eGD35QZ35tFgQQKuJy3C", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1699392578621, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1700162100000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on November 16th than it closed on November 15th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]{DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-fe79faa9747", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-fe79faa9747", "pool": {"NO": 80.11854075223621, "YES": 546.8910537299977}, "probability": 0.05000000000000007, "p": 0.26430796084709657, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 747.190978653378, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700169569599, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700169564263, "lastBetTime": 1700161150124, "lastCommentTime": 1700169563595, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 215pm ET  ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fjlvcf8-YPR.png?alt=media&token=17faec3e-c3ae-49bc-a603-bfde772de229", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-93ec8b796ec4", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "sccsq4", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at 215pm ET  (715pm UTC)\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS \n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-93ec8b796ec4)"}, {"id": "3Ef5hNuCQ6lPKXzeh691", "creatorId": "6lpfrAV6e2NU436bJudMfYUmjR62", "creatorUsername": "CateHall", "creatorName": "Cate Hall", "createdTime": 1709062869587, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbkFF2iaZVSvQacg-LatuYo4DL4ulrd-tkVRUQSgSY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709152492880, "question": "Will more than 5% of Michigan Democratic primary votes on Feb. 27 be \"uncommitted\"", "slug": "will-more-than-5-of-michigan-democr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CateHall/will-more-than-5-of-michigan-democr", "pool": {"NO": 15404.343283046925, "YES": 266.6166959791864}, "probability": 0.9956661018496326, "p": 0.7990474966842486, "totalLiquidity": 687.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16525.207369340194, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709152492880, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "6lpfrAV6e2NU436bJudMfYUmjR62", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709152493301, "lastBetTime": 1709141883589, "lastCommentTime": 1709141893644, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CateHall%2F63558ec76969.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "Context here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/us/politics/michigan-primary-biden-trump.html"}, {"id": "ngjx69owML7OYsZ5XXgd", "creatorId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "creatorUsername": "DeathByTech", "creatorName": "DeathByTech", "createdTime": 1703507323654, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDeathByTech%2F6w4bQQKMDZ.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef640e16-9c3f-4cbe-9043-4e3a77d7c266", "closeTime": 1706763540000, "question": "Will Russia control Krynky by the end of January 2024", "slug": "will-russia-control-krynky-by-the-e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DeathByTech/will-russia-control-krynky-by-the-e", "pool": {"NO": 373.43244449969427, "YES": 4123.110642825143}, "probability": 0.03749156859215418, "p": 0.30073491596008944, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7419.493042756894, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706786401000, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "uniqueBettorCount": 46, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706786431709, "lastBetTime": 1706755752053, "lastCommentTime": 1706786429622, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "understandingwar.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://understandingwar.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to determine how this resolves", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki  as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: no otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DeathByTech%2F11dde1f6522f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine", "russia"], "textDescription": "understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves\n\nYes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki  as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight \n\nNo: no otherwise"}, {"id": "iuCexXx3h7clOx8J8E19", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1695069499585, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1695150900000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on September 19th than it closed on September 18th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-0e167f4d0cf9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-0e167f4d0cf9", "pool": {"NO": 73.49836393573217, "YES": 669.1383756797491}, "probability": 0.04152275280077021, "p": 0.2828483258461718, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1461.080878053697, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695162055841, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695162054084, "lastBetTime": 1695148377284, "lastCommentTime": 1695162053379, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u033615p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1  315pm ET(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2CHWqLOTsP.png?alt=media&token=9a1d17f6-04b2-41c7-82d7-bacdff6517e3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : According to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the trading day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsV8v18vIGr.png?alt=media&token=199f342c-0d69-41d1-9583-f249deca193d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance", "stocks", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u033615p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 1  315pm ET(715pm UTC)\n\n1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : According to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL at the end of the trading day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nFor The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow \u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2"}, {"id": "uPNMqjdCmwzA5fHMa3P9", "creatorId": "sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1", "creatorUsername": "MartinRandall", "creatorName": "Martin Randall", "createdTime": 1654915755607, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMartinRandall%2FY9en-a3AWz.jpg?alt=media&token=1511b7d4-7173-4308-bd20-bee14ed5221b", "closeTime": 1672030740000, "question": "Will Florida UMC reconsider its vote on 16 provisional candidates for ministry?", "slug": "will-florida-umc-reconsider-its-vot", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-florida-umc-reconsider-its-vot", "pool": {"NO": 21.425010033781405, "YES": 1449.7698628478702}, "probability": 0.011332050003905553, "p": 0.43680910658046157, "totalLiquidity": 140.27149321266967, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2021.7744217750565, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672080110055, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672078076586, "lastBetTime": 1672028316061, "lastCommentTime": 1672078072591, "description": "https://hackingchristianity.net/2022/06/the-cruelty-is-the-point-behind-floridas-veto-of-an-entire-class-of-new-umc-clergy.html\n\n> My prayer is that the clergy session vote gets reconsidered, that people who voted \u201cno\u201d reconsider the collateral damage of their actions and vote \u201cyes,\u201d\n\nWill the clergy session vote get reconsidered by Christmas?\n\n#Florida #USA #Religion #UMC", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "https://hackingchristianity.net/2022/06/the-cruelty-is-the-point-behind-floridas-veto-of-an-entire-class-of-new-umc-clergy.html\n\n> My prayer is that the clergy session vote gets reconsidered, that people who voted \u201cno\u201d reconsider the collateral damage of their actions and vote \u201cyes,\u201d\n\nWill the clergy session vote get reconsidered by Christmas?\n\n#Florida #USA #Religion #UMC"}, {"id": "L7hz7GF1uSN9eakAAqvk", "creatorId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "creatorUsername": "NcyRocks", "creatorName": "N.C. Young", "createdTime": 1666437366049, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNathanYounga244%2FNathan%20square.jpg?alt=media&token=6de519e4-402b-4ff2-b6b3-70181e9d9dc2", "closeTime": 1698991200000, "question": "Will the National Party form a government following the next New Zealand general election?", "slug": "will-the-national-party-form-a-gove", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-the-national-party-form-a-gove", "pool": {"NO": 4668.405409194244, "YES": 620.7764081159678}, "probability": 0.9651236958377177, "p": 0.7863136995941936, "totalLiquidity": 1025, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11787.758355052483, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700952018023, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 60, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698880137951, "lastBetTime": 1698880137823, "lastCommentTime": 1696340402971, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FHwcd5K3ii2.png?alt=media&token=02ef6a02-4e62-4696-8b72-d0cbec16cbc1", "groupSlugs": ["nz-politics", "2023-new-zealand-general-election", "new-zealand"], "textDescription": "\nClose date updated to 2023-10-14 7:00 pm"}, {"id": "1r4WKgNYTG7SarwIOWOo", "creatorId": "91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1", "creatorUsername": "Bruce54df", "creatorName": "Bruce", "createdTime": 1700069876963, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711943940000, "question": "Several leading Democrats are suggesting that Joe Biden should step aside. Will Joe step aside by 3/31/24?", "slug": "several-leading-democrats-are-sugge", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bruce54df/several-leading-democrats-are-sugge", "pool": {"NO": 225.81998232513365, "YES": 2866.627380705278}, "probability": 0.017767852156554235, "p": 0.18674759571879046, "totalLiquidity": 397.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3777.2391465177357, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711968903734, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711943940000, "lastBetTime": 1711458810558, "lastCommentTime": 1711919232915, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["democratic-party", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "cqecwOMnvlmRunkbA21E", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1710315088963, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1712905200000, "question": "Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th April show positive growth?", "slug": "will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-3246ff166c1e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-3246ff166c1e", "pool": {"NO": 4164.334484815674, "YES": 84.49092911101894}, "probability": 0.9833587227018877, "p": 0.5452310627463811, "totalLiquidity": 520, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4528.291450939387, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712907456546, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712905200000, "lastBetTime": 1712904812261, "lastCommentTime": 1712907449251, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Friday 12th April.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (February in this case). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this reading show positive growth?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "D6nccD4Z7ACDPKGKy1Kq", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-f274c791206a"}}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "BN7DCZzbYzYyWC73Fun5", "label": "/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-9ccb890e03f0"}}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xtDpkjVwO9a0ExWFAOrD", "label": "/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "gdp", "uk", "uk-economic-data"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Friday 12th April.\n\nThis is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (February in this case). \n\nWill this reading show positive growth?\n\nResolution notes:\n\nA reading of 0.0% resolves to NO\n\nThis market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-f274c791206a  \n\n@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-9ccb890e03f0  \n\n@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202 "}, {"id": "WsjqIvcxY6WIBVuzTv0J", "creatorId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "creatorUsername": "egroj", "creatorName": "JAAM", "createdTime": 1656044003347, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjorge%2F6eta_wBPT5.png?alt=media&token=2d5f9149-6e77-4307-83f7-a770bebe9686", "closeTime": 1658656800000, "question": "Will a French rider wear the yellow jersey at the 2022 Tour de France?", "slug": "will-a-french-rider-wear-the-yellow", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-a-french-rider-wear-the-yellow", "pool": {"NO": 9.446043598599175, "YES": 1058.6442774288062}, "probability": 0.008843862183408747, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1492.271820951377, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1658685064925, "resolutionProbability": 0.008843862183408747, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1658594490366, "lastBetTime": 1658594487090, "lastCommentTime": 1656348032802, "description": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France\nWill a French rider be the leader of the general classification at the 2022 Tour de France?", "groupSlugs": ["road-bicycle-racing"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Tour_de_France\nWill a French rider be the leader of the general classification at the 2022 Tour de France?"}, {"id": "GsjU0sTdbjsvi7yO9M00", "creatorId": "1dosXsRFBiSeIykZh6AUncBD9To1", "creatorUsername": "MattTaylord664", "creatorName": "Matt Taylor", "createdTime": 1691257977926, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfm7Toni_a6y8rU3ivzLa8jmlciswOuWCzmW7dWrM93OQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693695540000, "question": "Will a new physics lab receive a sample of LK-99 material, from the original researchers, to verify before September", "slug": "will-a-new-physics-lab-receive-a-sa", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MattTaylord664/will-a-new-physics-lab-receive-a-sa", "pool": {"NO": 174.34089979305747, "YES": 1408.2158788311667}, "probability": 0.04420292672022641, "p": 0.2719625036053929, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3361.345256742267, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693918027796, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693830557987, "lastBetTime": 1693675679389, "lastCommentTime": 1693830557773, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An independent lab with PhDs and published scientists working at it will report they have received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any of the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center. They will announce they intend to verify the superconducting properties of the material.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a real research lab/university.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifications:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Independent/New means researchers that recieved a sample of LK-99 for the first time after the 22 July 2023 when the first arxiv papers were published. Existing collaborators do not count e.g. College of William & Mary or KENTECH. The sample could be sent from such a collaborator to the new lab, as long as there was a reasonable expectation it was a sample of LK-99 by the original producers where superconductivity was claimed.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- The verification of the superconducting properties must be [a primary part of] the stated purpose. A sample sent solely for a material characterisation (e.g. X-ray diffraction or electron microscopy) or for the development of future products or for a photoshoot etc. would not count. The verification should be public, i.e. there should be a reasonable expectation the findings will be published. There must be some scientists involved who have a reasonable expectation of expertise in superconductivity.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- Before September 2023 (the lab recieves it before this date in their timezone)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["superconductivity", "science-default", "lk99"], "textDescription": "An independent lab with PhDs and published scientists working at it will report they have received a package containing alleged superconducting material from any of the LK-99 researchers or Quantum Energy Research Center. They will announce they intend to verify the superconducting properties of the material.\n\nThe report can be a press release, twitter post, blog post, etc. but should be verifiable as being from a real research lab/university.\n\n\nClarifications:\n- Independent/New means researchers that recieved a sample of LK-99 for the first time after the 22 July 2023 when the first arxiv papers were published. Existing collaborators do not count e.g. College of William & Mary or KENTECH. The sample could be sent from such a collaborator to the new lab, as long as there was a reasonable expectation it was a sample of LK-99 by the original producers where superconductivity was claimed.\n- The verification of the superconducting properties must be [a primary part of] the stated purpose. A sample sent solely for a material characterisation (e.g. X-ray diffraction or electron microscopy) or for the development of future products or for a photoshoot etc. would not count. The verification should be public, i.e. there should be a reasonable expectation the findings will be published. There must be some scientists involved who have a reasonable expectation of expertise in superconductivity.\n- Before September 2023 (the lab recieves it before this date in their timezone)"}, {"id": "5lD89XZBZP1uSvSqhS21", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691701999193, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1692054000000, "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher August 14th Than August 13th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-be4f5f64bea4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-be4f5f64bea4", "pool": {"NO": 286.00480037810325, "YES": 93.55173259409527}, "probability": 0.8199096477212174, "p": 0.5982650749715946, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 211.84194510181695, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692063779809, "resolutionProbability": 0.82, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692063777310, "lastBetTime": 1692053398127, "lastCommentTime": 1692063775384, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FYfdbgZwuGN.png?alt=media&token=a0d2e184-5584-42e5-967f-226c83d4e4cd", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "yLVsheVavjHzQj9cZmv3", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1686851843007, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697098681013, "question": "Will there be 18 or more named storms during the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season?", "slug": "will-there-be-18-or-more-named-stor", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-there-be-18-or-more-named-stor", "pool": {"NO": 6635.9449054490005, "YES": 73.13809654730676}, "probability": 0.990997916769654, "p": 0.5481873363675327, "totalLiquidity": 670, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12246.15834806294, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697098681013, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697077249811, "lastBetTime": 1697077235913, "lastCommentTime": 1697077249105, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 18 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if NOAA names 18 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If 18 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to \"Yes\" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA\u2019s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA\u2019s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") and/or their data on individual storms.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market may only resolve to \"No\" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a \"Yes\" resolution have not occurred before then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "original: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-19-or-more-named-storms-during-the-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-19-or-more-named-storms-during-the-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["polymarket"], "textDescription": "This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 18 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.\n\nThis market will resolve to \u201cYes\u201d if NOAA names 18 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \u201cNo.\u201d\n\nIf 18 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to \"Yes\" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA\u2019s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA\u2019s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.\n\nThis market may only resolve to \"No\" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a \"Yes\" resolution have not occurred before then.\n\noriginal: https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-19-or-more-named-storms-during-the-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season"}, {"id": "RJhdMop8raD1Aga7f9pk", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690993148768, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691276400000, "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher August 5th Than August 4th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-078274178a7c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-078274178a7c", "pool": {"NO": 264.3590196744555, "YES": 323.9549043997419}, "probability": 0.37257319231175967, "p": 0.42118827840674256, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 729.047107443352, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691291556922, "resolutionProbability": 0.37, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691291554808, "lastBetTime": 1691276322495, "lastCommentTime": 1691291548100, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 4th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEHoH1wf6mr.png?alt=media&token=bc21907c-a4f3-4ff3-bf61-13b9add9d8be", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance"], "textDescription": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 4th Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "9KatsnlQHhy03o9gSj0V", "creatorId": "vafCXeXyBcS5LXHjtzjuEbxu3lp1", "creatorUsername": "arbmaster39247", "creatorName": "arbmaster39247", "createdTime": 1692365001081, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcDgwHzpT_zk9kK1HwylWUcBJmDZ41VNoNIFuVB6mC4_A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1696185731730, "question": "Will SARS-CoV-2 variant BA.2.86 be declared a \u201cvariant of concern\u201d or higher by the CDC by October 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-sarscov2-variant-ba286-be-decl", "url": "https://manifold.markets/arbmaster39247/will-sarscov2-variant-ba286-be-decl", "pool": {"NO": 99.79601361592991, "YES": 1481.5576813083164}, "probability": 0.02090802489898377, "p": 0.24071355014552473, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2741.5061710490527, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696185731730, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206832900, "lastBetTime": 1696150499516, "lastCommentTime": 1692365145505, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["medicine", "health", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "covid-origins"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "t8rYoo9kAMGk0ywa5XSF", "creatorId": "xZDS4X0Bg6NqrcqJYnhTlgXIclI3", "creatorUsername": "craftyvisage", "creatorName": "craftyvisage", "createdTime": 1682835617718, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcraftyvisage%2FX6j0YtxEG3.jpg?alt=media&token=87a00d96-1966-4140-818d-a21f8ad9954e", "closeTime": 1683820347793, "question": "Will Jacob Wasserman win his race for North Westwood Neighborhood Council?", "slug": "will-jacob-wasserman-win-his-race-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/craftyvisage/will-jacob-wasserman-win-his-race-f", "pool": {"NO": 51, "YES": 49.01960784313726}, "probability": 0.509900019603999, "p": 0.49999999999999983, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683820347793, "resolutionProbability": 0.51, "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682835622157, "lastBetTime": 1682835622020, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For background see:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://dailybruin.com/2023/04/12/ucla-employees-raag-agrawal-jacob-wasserman-to-appear-on-nwwnc-ballot", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dailybruin.com/2023/04/12/ucla-employees-raag-agrawal-jacob-wasserman-to-appear-on-nwwnc-ballot", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-NZn6uTNie.png?alt=media&token=2d0ae024-269f-4a0e-b4c1-5438fbdd6f18", "textDescription": "For background see:\n\nhttps://dailybruin.com/2023/04/12/ucla-employees-raag-agrawal-jacob-wasserman-to-appear-on-nwwnc-ballot"}, {"id": "fNx9PgP9bu2IttntR1SU", "creatorId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "creatorUsername": "MikeChenSF", "creatorName": "Mike Chen", "createdTime": 1683522548273, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1685861940000, "question": "Will California AB 645 (speed safety cameras) pass the Assembly?", "slug": "will-california-ab-645-speed-safety", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety", "pool": {"NO": 2408.7886176380016, "YES": 36.2314367912254}, "probability": 0.9980998999250401, "p": 0.887653610370997, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3797.261740717362, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685864324588, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685864321005, "lastBetTime": 1685860091380, "lastCommentTime": 1685864317700, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assembly Bill 645", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240AB645", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "summary from Walk SF", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://walksf.org/our-work/campaigns/ab-645-speed-safety-cameras", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") would allow six California cities to pilot traffic speed cameras (which are currently illegal). This market shall resolve to YES if the bill passes the Assembly by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "legislative deadline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.assembly.ca.gov/schedules-publications/legislative-deadlines", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of June 2, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-be2d36b872fe", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-fddd72fb4a92", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FsUg2fMKTfd.png?alt=media&token=b0b4abbb-d5d6-4d75-97b5-a695c7120da9", "groupSlugs": ["california", "california-politics", "transportation"], "textDescription": "Assembly Bill 645 (summary from Walk SF) would allow six California cities to pilot traffic speed cameras (which are currently illegal). This market shall resolve to YES if the bill passes the Assembly by the legislative deadline of June 2, 2023.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-be2d36b872fe)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-fddd72fb4a92)"}, {"id": "hhcpdhcPwAV7J3D8gN8Z", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1701413356820, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1706712118704, "question": "Did the USA use at least 100 million metric tons of sand and gravel in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-usa-sand-gravel-usage-surp", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-usa-sand-gravel-usage-surp", "pool": {"NO": 634.3290808448752, "YES": 37.89348276990647}, "probability": 0.9692064749567448, "p": 0.6528033251514692, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 554.3254073059775, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706712118704, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706712291233, "lastBetTime": 1706704620833, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023-sand-industrial.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023-sand-industrial.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "USA Annual Industrial sand and gravel consumption estimates from previous year:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "2018 - 120 million tons", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2019 - 103 million tons", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2020 - 72.1 million tons", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2021 - 69.5 million tons", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2022 - 91 million tons", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo/1dcc9fb55824.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=iSKZkn2GXAvtlrba4a1ZA5lqS7qBlrq1JDmyjqtwF6rafrLyUIpbxiQ%2BIUyca2NZ4IX%2FVndWQPmpy%2BqieT1HhOFL2NDUcNVVvCKo1lcEHlDzvJjSheF9q6eLGpi02hr0G8ypYRCcOcljE02mgQskx9LGC0KDfSSbAi%2FSBVoK%2Fmq%2BYObzYCuUOXlDNdnnnaxzkHROp92W4dMMct2meTnLGo2uHsnYLWqXtxXZ%2BKP9h4%2B%2F0qQZXhHpgOgacOWdSONMvp4iXmThjqoNnoo6izPbXfMjEaIaN5zrZt03%2FvejnVPCrcp65sBZBfmygrLs%2Fei8H5WbpOFPcVi9sQUdpqAntw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["construction", "united-states", "infrastructure", "resources", "production", "consumption"], "textDescription": "Info: https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023-sand-industrial.pdf\nUSA Annual Industrial sand and gravel consumption estimates from previous year:\n2018 - 120 million tons\n\n2019 - 103 million tons\n\n2020 - 72.1 million tons\n\n2021 - 69.5 million tons\n\n2022 - 91 million tons"}, {"id": "MznMdUrqVmSQVNkUHBju", "creatorId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "creatorUsername": "dglid", "creatorName": "David Glidden", "createdTime": 1677724021354, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GilZzUf5IKsoQ18Y3U_YkjU5JDCVQMuqydda5LP6A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679232243865, "question": "Will Purdue win the 2023 March Madness NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament?", "slug": "will-purdue-win-the-2023-march-madn", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dglid/will-purdue-win-the-2023-march-madn", "pool": {"NO": 84.06744422491124, "YES": 1475.0000000000002}, "probability": 0.009576810112831085, "p": 0.14504635516838738, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1325, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679232243865, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679231094485, "lastBetTime": 1679231044616, "lastCommentTime": 1679231091342, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_tournament", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_tournament", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See related markets in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "March Madness", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/march-madness", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " group.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FxeQ3YpIN7R.png?alt=media&token=f95c831a-a4b0-4782-b0d2-54cf6117a135", "groupSlugs": ["march-madness", "basketball"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_tournament\n\nSee related markets in the March Madness group."}, {"id": "I4ixyHcxPPi3Hanooik5", "creatorId": "q1OyKbMDf7hmBe9WZLwOhI3FvU32", "creatorUsername": "NamesAreHard", "creatorName": "NamesAreHard", "createdTime": 1686514246246, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4Y7b2Qj-CHzI8sNluWCbWRdota_29t5Bhkyf2F=s96-c", "closeTime": 1687025966184, "question": "Will Norway beat Scotland in the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying?", "slug": "will-norway-beat-scotland-in-the-ue", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NamesAreHard/will-norway-beat-scotland-in-the-ue", "pool": {"NO": 11.653089477975822, "YES": 2388.4964732745243}, "probability": 0.003458696960792666, "p": 0.4156757239208928, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3278.551690507703, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1687025966184, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687024457742, "lastBetTime": 1687024457574, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Norway wins against Scotland in their match on June 17, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if Scotland wins or the match ends in a draw.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FUE_Gg9MG_b.png?alt=media&token=bd0075b5-d515-4225-8728-d71cea201e63", "groupSlugs": ["football", "soccer", "sports-default", "euros-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Norway wins against Scotland in their match on June 17, 2023.\n\nResolves NO if Scotland wins or the match ends in a draw.\n\nhttps://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/"}, {"id": "QHzVch0NFXcyUYRwswSW", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705877774609, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705968000000, "question": "Will the Winnipeg Jets beat Boston Bruins on Jan 22? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-boston", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-boston", "pool": {"NO": 43.427697524514265, "YES": 57.56694788133287}, "probability": 0.42999999999999994, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11.761030857847585, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705985839381, "resolutionProbability": 0.43, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705985839997, "lastBetTime": 1705925277200, "lastCommentTime": 1705985834559, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winnipeg Jets vs Boston Bruins @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=jets+vs+bruins#sie=m;/g/11kqmrwf0w;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 6:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXl5-EPcTY3.png?alt=media&token=6cacba8f-4d90-4a61-bbc3-6800656a8453", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fcad3509e5eaa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "boston-bruins", "yuna-league-beta", "sports-default", "ice-hockey", "winnipeg-jets"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.\n\n \n\nWinnipeg Jets vs Boston Bruins @6pm CST\n\nGame starts at 6:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 6:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "gm3dhUYOfvb5OuQFX00S", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1693131697342, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1694320397218, "question": "Will Israel Adesanya beat Sean Strickland at UFC 293?", "slug": "will-israel-adesanya-beat-sean-stri", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-israel-adesanya-beat-sean-stri", "pool": {"NO": 0.13037713647645433, "YES": 65993.24927926355}, "probability": 3.2874334242976632e-06, "p": 0.6246263231077478, "totalLiquidity": 730, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 70547.04523027799, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694320397218, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694477975835, "lastBetTime": 1694320376857, "lastCommentTime": 1694477975217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Israel Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ufc", "fighting", "combat-sports", "sports-default", "mma", "ufc-293"], "textDescription": "Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland are scheduled to fight on September 9th, 2023 at a UFC event in Sydney, Australia. \n\nIf Israel Adesanya wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Sean Strickland wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "44oM22ZG2w0e5u7b3kzX", "creatorId": "CwHFY5YCPOhJnLdFZd5mHdecNJE3", "creatorUsername": "Christoph", "creatorName": "Christoph", "createdTime": 1689222119020, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/user-images/CwHFY5YCPOhJnLdFZd5mHdecNJE3.png", "closeTime": 1715036492275, "question": "Will either of Victor Wembanyama or Chet Holmgren win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year award?", "slug": "will-either-of-victor-wembanyama-or", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Christoph/will-either-of-victor-wembanyama-or", "pool": {"NO": 4738.013563200697, "YES": 233.60627371390137}, "probability": 0.9877420655757336, "p": 0.7989126172330469, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7875.127447496704, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715036492275, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715036492275, "lastBetTime": 1713485723420, "lastCommentTime": 1697405725991, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chet and Wemby vs the field. Chet is eligible for the award since he sat out the entire 2022-23 season due to injury. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nba"], "textDescription": "Chet and Wemby vs the field. Chet is eligible for the award since he sat out the entire 2022-23 season due to injury. "}, {"id": "BDkGnFcGYQrpVYIMm0zN", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701181897200, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1701370800000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on November 30 than it did on November 29?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-c9cbd0e16f06", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-novemb-c9cbd0e16f06", "pool": {"NO": 439.24480554398093, "YES": 135.91778839598885}, "probability": 0.8175805180372343, "p": 0.5810374837020089, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 452.04055645739334, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701379477427, "resolutionProbability": 0.82, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701368442382, "lastBetTime": 1701368442228, "lastCommentTime": 1701379473088, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "3a3f8698-d05b-4a76-9443-2d528fdcdeac", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "S&P/TSX Composite Index Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill the TSX close higher on November 3 than it did on November 2?p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFOCgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzanibacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5a59a15eb-7184-4fa0-a9a3-9c7a048ee0f5QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest S&P/TSX Composite Index (OSPTX) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/32b57402688f.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=A91EWVCtDAMG66DsWiVqmbAseogjx7r%2FfX%2F0RFRLUpJFeNsxc%2FYTsPv%2FdpL9wd3LS71x8%2Fs4oahYpb0DJnub5fEv6V5QUQQNfMjvPBWOtE5l5%2FndpQ5F3vwfWkAHV3qEvPmlIhuZUFdiv%2BO%2FSk7ph%2B01SJaR7mEglsmqZ3SzP9rYlxPqV5PsZOK8xjYf4ZS%2B1WqfjgdZNWpA0pxE6QWuy35%2FQPmQTzmwYnAfTQmOfrJLsggiUsQ%2FGRfcW7EGG%2BYBZEuWIZ4XUPRTu1xFttDvuKXqLCpWELHGbotTM4LxDqMZc7atMbpwsfD7POp6jlMkCpVIfgVnoTuOslVcf2zzhg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "stocks", "hawsbollah", "finance"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "GqbD32mFjhHRd6Dvfo51", "creatorId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "creatorUsername": "Gabrielle", "creatorName": "Gabrielle", "createdTime": 1679132227366, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694537940000, "question": "Will the iPhone 15 Pro have a titanium chassis?", "slug": "will-the-iphone-15-pro-have-a-titan", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-the-iphone-15-pro-have-a-titan", "pool": {"NO": 1235.6185322001343, "YES": 328.9954413388181}, "probability": 0.9559229096025751, "p": 0.8523879293491381, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1972.3705609798744, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694542786379, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694537538857, "lastBetTime": 1694537538528, "lastCommentTime": 1693527072033, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the iPhone 15 Pro have a titanium chassis instead of the stainless steel that recent iPhones have used? This is being reported by 9to5Mac, sourcing the rumor to leakers and business analysts. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://9to5mac.com/2023/03/17/iphone-15-pro-titanium-rumor-design/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://9to5mac.com/2023/03/17/iphone-15-pro-titanium-rumor-design/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Apple Watch Series 5 is available in titanium, so it wouldn't be the first product that Apple has released with a titanium body, and the light weight and the extra durability might be helpful for consumers. On the other hand, titanium is more expensive than stainless steel.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the chassis of the iPhone 15 Pro, when it is released (expected in September-October 2023), uses titanium in place of the iPhone 14 Pro's stainless steel, including if this is a customizable option (with a possible extra cost). Resolves NO if the chassis of the iPhone 15 Pro is made of any material other than titanium. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Apple does not release an iPhone 15 Pro but releases an equivalent phone (eg. they change off of the numeric versioning, they call it the \"iPhone 15 Extreme\"), it will resolve using that closest equivalent. Resolves N/A if Apple does not release an upper model (\"pro\") iPhone in 2023 or if they release multiple upper models iPhones that differ in material (eg. \"Pro\" in stainless steel and \"Pro Max\" in giganium). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fd9L8pP05A9.png?alt=media&token=040afb36-d665-4a31-90d5-560591aed1a8", "groupSlugs": ["apple", "technology-default", "apple-september-event"], "textDescription": "Will the iPhone 15 Pro have a titanium chassis instead of the stainless steel that recent iPhones have used? This is being reported by 9to5Mac, sourcing the rumor to leakers and business analysts. https://9to5mac.com/2023/03/17/iphone-15-pro-titanium-rumor-design/\n\nThe Apple Watch Series 5 is available in titanium, so it wouldn't be the first product that Apple has released with a titanium body, and the light weight and the extra durability might be helpful for consumers. On the other hand, titanium is more expensive than stainless steel.\n\nResolves YES if the chassis of the iPhone 15 Pro, when it is released (expected in September-October 2023), uses titanium in place of the iPhone 14 Pro's stainless steel, including if this is a customizable option (with a possible extra cost). Resolves NO if the chassis of the iPhone 15 Pro is made of any material other than titanium. \n\nIf Apple does not release an iPhone 15 Pro but releases an equivalent phone (eg. they change off of the numeric versioning, they call it the \"iPhone 15 Extreme\"), it will resolve using that closest equivalent. Resolves N/A if Apple does not release an upper model (\"pro\") iPhone in 2023 or if they release multiple upper models iPhones that differ in material (eg. \"Pro\" in stainless steel and \"Pro Max\" in giganium). "}, {"id": "gvkDS2nIXnPQvbV1V9Cc", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707183652158, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709701189950, "question": "Will Destiny upload a video on Youtube on Mar 05, 2024? (Eastern Time)", "slug": "will-destiny-upload-a-video-on-yout-fa4e771f3e8a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-upload-a-video-on-yout-fa4e771f3e8a", "pool": {"NO": 19.946343576252914, "YES": 2598.4713064614384}, "probability": 0.005563546011385132, "p": 0.42157583345957, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2437.5566983038684, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709776099631, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218256946, "lastBetTime": 1709701026891, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if Destiny uploaded a video on his main Youtube channel on Mar 05, 2024 (Eastern Time) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: If Destiny uploads a video on a given day and the video is later deleted on the same day, this will resolve as 'Yes' provided that someone posts screenshot evidence of the video in the comment section before the market closes. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If no such evidence is provided before the market closes this resolves No.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F9813d2dc5db8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "youtube"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if Destiny uploaded a video on his main Youtube channel on Mar 05, 2024 (Eastern Time) \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos \n\nNote: If Destiny uploads a video on a given day and the video is later deleted on the same day, this will resolve as 'Yes' provided that someone posts screenshot evidence of the video in the comment section before the market closes. \nIf no such evidence is provided before the market closes this resolves No."}, {"id": "fOAEtJffEPD4JnzowmkP", "creatorId": "2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2", "creatorUsername": "Yoae", "creatorName": "Kakonomics", "createdTime": 1699454258964, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FYoae%2FwKMgGiaBBr.png?alt=media&token=e9ea4a67-f19d-4c49-a7eb-7cb5c36cee5d", "closeTime": 1707414082224, "question": "Will the city of Chicago have 3 consecutive days without a murder by the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-the-city-of-chicago-have-3-con-e037ced3f542", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Yoae/will-the-city-of-chicago-have-3-con-e037ced3f542", "pool": {"NO": 153.58752996517654, "YES": 144.91877515417912}, "probability": 0.5873161018330679, "p": 0.5731669397611652, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 98.61190833294461, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707414082224, "resolutionProbability": 0.59, "resolverId": "2BxXRsWcjIU3OTyyhyjac7yyy4P2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707414138602, "lastBetTime": 1706629180687, "lastCommentTime": 1706629168244, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://data.cityofchicago.org/widgets/53tx-phyr?mobile_redirect=true", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.cityofchicago.org/widgets/53tx-phyr?mobile_redirect=true", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UPDATE: JAN 18, 19, 20 HAD NO MURDERS!! ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["law-order", "crime", "chicago"], "textDescription": "https://data.cityofchicago.org/widgets/53tx-phyr?mobile_redirect=true\n\nUPDATE: JAN 18, 19, 20 HAD NO MURDERS!! "}, {"id": "erxK2Ah5kEJuiPiYqleY", "creatorId": "K3Cjs1RMUaZfVECJTUMxvfUtFvl2", "creatorUsername": "lxgr", "creatorName": "Lukas", "createdTime": 1712515768083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIJV0pUFgPMw6pHkHAFAYAZrvyWQGsI3e68MniyCfbE194_=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713119742632, "question": "Will there be a Game Boy emulator for iOS supporting user-provided ROMs available in the US Apple App Store?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-game-boy-emulator-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lxgr/will-there-be-a-game-boy-emulator-f", "pool": {"NO": 180.06484519678125, "YES": 179.55021678808927}, "probability": 0.5039762636909323, "p": 0.5032607740284765, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 40, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713119742632, "resolutionProbability": 0.5, "resolverId": "K3Cjs1RMUaZfVECJTUMxvfUtFvl2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713197221591, "lastBetTime": 1712584815001, "lastCommentTime": 1713197221070, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple recently [changed](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") their App Store [guidelines](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), allowing emulation of \"retro game consoles\":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apps may offer certain software that is not embedded in the binary, specifically HTML5 mini apps and mini games, streaming games, chatbots, and plug-ins. Additionally, retro game console emulator apps can offer to download games.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this be limited to games provided by the developer/vendor of the emulator (-> resolves NO), or will users be able to \"sideload\" their own ROMs (-> resolves YES), like they are in the many equivalent emulators being offered in the Google Play Store for Android?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The sideloading functionality must be \"officially present\", i.e. it can't be hidden away in a debug menu accessible only after using a cheat code sequence. (This section is to disqualify \"sneaky emulators\" that have [made it into the app store](", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") a few times already in the past).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In ambiguous cases, I'll resolve based on my subjective impression of Apple tolerating the sideloading functionality. For example, being able to add \"additional app sources\" in a visible app menu and being able to open ROMs from the iOS Files app would both count as YES, while having to press the copyright notice in the app's settings 20 times to get a prompt would resolve to NO (especially if it leads to Apple ultimately removing the emulator from their store).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["app-stores", "emulation", "iphone", "dma", "apple"], "textDescription": "Apple recently [changed](https://www.theverge.com/2024/4/5/24122341/apple-app-store-game-emulators-super-apps) their App Store [guidelines](https://developer.apple.com/app-store/review/guidelines/), allowing emulation of \"retro game consoles\":\n\nApps may offer certain software that is not embedded in the binary, specifically HTML5 mini apps and mini games, streaming games, chatbots, and plug-ins. Additionally, retro game console emulator apps can offer to download games.\n\nWill this be limited to games provided by the developer/vendor of the emulator (-> resolves NO), or will users be able to \"sideload\" their own ROMs (-> resolves YES), like they are in the many equivalent emulators being offered in the Google Play Store for Android?\n\nThe sideloading functionality must be \"officially present\", i.e. it can't be hidden away in a debug menu accessible only after using a cheat code sequence. (This section is to disqualify \"sneaky emulators\" that have [made it into the app store](https://www.eteknix.com/snes-emulator-sneaks-onto-ios-app-store/) a few times already in the past).\n\nIn ambiguous cases, I'll resolve based on my subjective impression of Apple tolerating the sideloading functionality. For example, being able to add \"additional app sources\" in a visible app menu and being able to open ROMs from the iOS Files app would both count as YES, while having to press the copyright notice in the app's settings 20 times to get a prompt would resolve to NO (especially if it leads to Apple ultimately removing the emulator from their store)."}, {"id": "A4NLlx0Z8y9cVl6dz50w", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705150934000, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705214700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-2487320c4e85", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-2487320c4e85", "pool": {"NO": 74.39090130752696, "YES": 40.14477826204703}, "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "p": 0.11887409440926598, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14.287985286396243, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705393258476, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705393258687, "lastBetTime": 1705196899602, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-14 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F33039b22b95c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-14 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "rOuEJxbLrSHaIrqeDRnj", "creatorId": "jwO79yttaPXUFrcuvnnttQWYMf73", "creatorUsername": "Wieneron", "creatorName": "Debaser", "createdTime": 1688625805219, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFrankB%2FN39PUr4lLq.jpg?alt=media&token=7fd326a7-d51d-485a-b72c-e3c06dcc26c5", "closeTime": 1704100957437, "question": "Will Elon Musk post on Instagram Threads in 2023?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-posy-on-instagram-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wieneron/will-elon-musk-posy-on-instagram-th", "pool": {"NO": 1209.3856534234053, "YES": 14233.177090054214}, "probability": 0.018500168614294998, "p": 0.18155629465707415, "totalLiquidity": 1975, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17976.021468105868, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704100957437, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "jwO79yttaPXUFrcuvnnttQWYMf73", "uniqueBettorCount": 106, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704100958702, "lastBetTime": 1704100865550, "lastCommentTime": 1689361529541, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will an account verified to be Elon Musk (either by himself elsewhere or Meta) post or reply on the new Meta threads app this year?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will an account verified to be Elon Musk (either by himself elsewhere or Meta) post or reply on the new Meta threads app this year?"}, {"id": "WiSHI8GokkVKUCOUdCYx", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1695640664146, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695893400000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on September 28 than it closed on September 27?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-ea887ef26f0a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-ea887ef26f0a", "pool": {"NO": 70.77562187978624, "YES": 678.7320914793878}, "probability": 0.05, "p": 0.33542995845691514, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 670.3456697406178, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695897053345, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462505058, "lastBetTime": 1695886094212, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "o5d1oCpKt2ybXVqEMQKu", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679097932564, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679673715556, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"If We Let The Banks Fail, We Will All Die\" reach 150k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-if-we-let-the-ban", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-if-we-let-the-ban", "pool": {"NO": 15.595062948894338, "YES": 10582.730437708286}, "probability": 0.0007127707705400241, "p": 0.32615809499807885, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10502.81481743112, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679673715556, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218608708, "lastBetTime": 1679673712138, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/1cVhF_VElbI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/1cVhF_VElbI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2Ee6VcROcW.png?alt=media&token=51ccd7f8-0eb2-4462-8af6-c2b4add5a0ec", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "finance", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/1cVhF_VElbI\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "IukCvE9Gupld3NsKWS83", "creatorId": "j2Qr3Gt10HfrJ0DUmfhmHh4Svex1", "creatorUsername": "JessieLumbur", "creatorName": "Jessie L\u00fcmbur", "createdTime": 1715005560053, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJcybInq457m0NT4bl2au-AFs-iZeoFGp0Nsq5FlfQXwBqa0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717192740000, "question": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played be in the top 60 most played games at the end of May? Read desc", "slug": "will-a-game-on-steam-not-in-the-top", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JessieLumbur/will-a-game-on-steam-not-in-the-top", "pool": {"NO": 994.9874371066196, "YES": 10.050378152592089}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.499999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 899.9964040971063, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717254803487, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "j2Qr3Gt10HfrJ0DUmfhmHh4Svex1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717192740000, "lastBetTime": 1717172580234, "lastCommentTime": 1717172683149, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played enter the top 60 most played games at the end of May?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This means:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of May, if a game in the top 60 according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " was not in the top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If at the end of May all the games in the top 60 were already at least top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a game previously not top 100 briefly enters top 60, but then leaves top 60 before the end of May (which would be strange, but if it happens) the market still resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The list of games currently Top 100 most played as of the creation of this market can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Why? I am trying to answer \"will there be any surprise games suddenly getting massive this month, whether newly released or previously unknown\". But that's far too broad and open to interpretation. So instead, if it's already top 100 it's not a surprising game suddenly getting massive, otherwise it is. Makes deciding what to resolve to as easy as going through a list and narrows down possible interpretations.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["gaming"], "textDescription": "Will a game on steam not in the top 100 most played enter the top 60 most played games at the end of May?\n\n\nThis means:\n\nAt the end of May, if a game in the top 60 according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/mostplayed was not in the top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves YES.\n\nIf at the end of May all the games in the top 60 were already at least top 100 at the time this question was made, the market resolves NO.\n\nIf a game previously not top 100 briefly enters top 60, but then leaves top 60 before the end of May (which would be strange, but if it happens) the market still resolves NO.\n\n\nThe list of games currently Top 100 most played as of the creation of this market can be found here: https://pastebin.com/nNMXFx5K\n\nWhy? I am trying to answer \"will there be any surprise games suddenly getting massive this month, whether newly released or previously unknown\". But that's far too broad and open to interpretation. So instead, if it's already top 100 it's not a surprising game suddenly getting massive, otherwise it is. Makes deciding what to resolve to as easy as going through a list and narrows down possible interpretations."}, {"id": "vl9yC4gSOxXIOkG2yphD", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1701902907140, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702497600000, "question": "Will Ford close higher December 13th than December 6th (F Weekly)", "slug": "will-ford-close-higher-december-13t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-ford-close-higher-december-13t", "pool": {"NO": 1277.8121845873413, "YES": 90.07019636987289}, "probability": 0.9827811816763985, "p": 0.8009222271178862, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1832.5096285062891, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702505353072, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702505347870, "lastBetTime": 1702496781082, "lastCommentTime": 1702505347120, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 10.69", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F?p=F", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F?p=F", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts/6fe34445819b.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=LHHdC7ZXNxb7uL%2BoiwAcJsTgeRrtsvIcSsH1cG8lSXhPx%2F4TfvWytf02tjVLBcxwSsTncG4UotBDJ77JmWunaacrtBgELSGb0GYUtsURhQbvyM%2FoHb%2FGRv8ZwyHbGTBQMhUnAEWRE%2B8i7Zhd4cN9%2Fec4K6ZJrJzae9B3QofuVn5jeNnFtamyH2ovQ2ipNggG1nNNFvD%2Bp6PfNe3VTDWmcZfcT8FAqJRBDgFXFCJoiNlWX9%2BnS1Sw5W6TeeAG%2FNssqg0tnu%2F3%2BOuwDB5zGVnaR7NUylm7i5fPpyRHk7%2Fxp8Sxf4S2JGhQ%2FLvB2RrpJGCjG%2Fh7NM8uUSvVl76oF4QZgg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["finance", "stock-marketweekly", "ford-motor-company", "stocks", "economics-default", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Previous Close Price: 10.69\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.\n\nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/F?p=F"}, {"id": "hqSwtJkb3MfOJUTCZmcQ", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1693757574410, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1694325854291, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Stanford defeat USC?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us", "pool": {"NO": 67.57945767338424, "YES": 11866.488517635606}, "probability": 0.0009737802277970794, "p": 0.1461426298022643, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16014.328217340668, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694325854291, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694325845015, "lastBetTime": 1694325844862, "lastCommentTime": 1694319886628, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 9, 2023 - 7:30 PM PDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, California", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pac-12 Week 2 games:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "nAvkBw5of89PZtc4QAEq", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-mis"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "lDoKvdNBTMWUaI26YeHi", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-state-def"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uNLzaNOunpIAH2nF7qWh", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-auburn-defeat-cali"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "75oDBIrYz5slNP8NJAlS", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-nebraska-defeat-co"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5P5o29yEndiyREMcB5wa", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-texa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hrUnGRgTwC18ekGWaXP4", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-uc-davis-defeat-or"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hqSwtJkb3MfOJUTCZmcQ", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us"}}, {"text": " (this market)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "WuLE46wNXj27GQmovUUW", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-san-di"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hqSwtJkb3MfOJUTCZmcQ", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us"}}, {"text": " (this market)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qdodorQHOHQ98mBWyFc6", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-baylor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "9hddUuSZsE5AOUzTARlm", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-tulsa-defea"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "17JLsUb7ckUWskuFD9gW", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["pac12", "football", "college-football", "sports-default", "california", "university-of-southern-california", "stanford-university"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 9, 2023 - 7:30 PM PDT\n\nLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, California\n\nPac-12 Week 2 games:\n\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-mis \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-state-def \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-auburn-defeat-cali \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-nebraska-defeat-co \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-texa \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-uc-davis-defeat-or \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us (this market)\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-san-di \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us (this market)\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-baylor \n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-tulsa-defea \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w "}, {"id": "RnAL7wdcNQVFt8NUGFf3", "creatorId": "Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63", "creatorUsername": "ersatz", "creatorName": "ersatz", "createdTime": 1696672775810, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fersatz%2Fstatue.png?alt=media&token=63dbda2f-cda7-48da-9fae-9ad9a107b2f7", "closeTime": 1704064469448, "question": "Hamas still in power in Gaza by 2024?", "slug": "hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ersatz/hamas-still-in-power-in-gaza-by-202", "pool": {"NO": 23199.429798137302, "YES": 209.19113795248813}, "probability": 0.9934045064750897, "p": 0.575937112812803, "totalLiquidity": 1785, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 96162.00796861759, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704064469448, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Acv189qBlCTT4POzQifpJ5keLz63", "uniqueBettorCount": 223, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704067351930, "lastBetTime": 1704062673840, "lastCommentTime": 1704067351271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hamas ruling Gaza on January 1, 2024. My criteria are the ability to enforce laws and governance, maintain public order, and provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference as well as control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks over most of the population of Gaza.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["middle-east", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Hamas ruling Gaza on January 1, 2024. My criteria are the ability to enforce laws and governance, maintain public order, and provide essential services to the community without significant outside interference as well as control of critical infrastructure such as transportation hubs, energy supplies, and communication networks over most of the population of Gaza."}, {"id": "GqYs0cVClIirvL5s4US7", "creatorId": "VB1PI3BbSTU7qBAdn6QlNahGDFq1", "creatorUsername": "yk", "creatorName": "yk", "createdTime": 1696395156021, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F2eb7%2Fm1EM8v8HZE.jpeg?alt=media&token=bff81696-81dd-4e17-bc16-c6fe8750ad16", "closeTime": 1704034740000, "question": "Will China officially confirm the submarine accident in 2023?", "slug": "will-china-officially-confirm-the-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/yk/will-china-officially-confirm-the-s", "pool": {"NO": 134.2755632106763, "YES": 2053.8819346067735}, "probability": 0.024734762609759223, "p": 0.2795072649662344, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2314.0216094957423, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704034871577, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "VB1PI3BbSTU7qBAdn6QlNahGDFq1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704034871876, "lastBetTime": 1704033547079, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rumored submarine accident is detailedly reported by DailyMail.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will China admit the fact that a submarine incident happened and killed some crews?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any Chinese state owned/controlled media outlet report the incident as fact or Chinese centrsl government confirms it, this resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The detail of incident can be different. The important part is that a submairne accident killed some crews under water and it has been hidden from the public for some time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "6bbd89b4-71c7-4c4a-a1d6-392c9d91fb65", "url": "https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html", "image": "https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/10/03/16/76120271-0-image-a-79_1696348681642.jpg", "title": "55 Chinese sailors feared dead after submarine 'caught in trap'", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "EXCLUSIVE Officially, China has denied the incident took place. It also appears Beijing refused to request international assistance for its stricken submarine.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["china", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "chinese-politics", "xi-jinping", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "The rumored submarine accident is detailedly reported by DailyMail.\n\nWill China admit the fact that a submarine incident happened and killed some crews?\n\nhttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12589429/chinese-sailors-trap-yellow-sea.html\n\nIf any Chinese state owned/controlled media outlet report the incident as fact or Chinese centrsl government confirms it, this resolves to YES.\n\nThe detail of incident can be different. The important part is that a submairne accident killed some crews under water and it has been hidden from the public for some time.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "sE61LmDUpZoMT08hGaWz", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1676396220790, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1676998800000, "question": "Will Destiny's LNOD video on Hunter Biden get 80k views by Feb 21st?", "slug": "will-destinys-lnod-video-on-hunter", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-lnod-video-on-hunter", "pool": {"NO": 60.5634403881932, "YES": 2081.1426037948772}, "probability": 0.02444460048845313, "p": 0.46266545316925883, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3619.1158098565506, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1677033077851, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218619294, "lastBetTime": 1676997905993, "lastCommentTime": 1676668101418, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/j9o7SEMzEDI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/j9o7SEMzEDI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQMQX-e_UNY.png?alt=media&token=46872eef-0512-4256-a65c-5618e2f5a5b2", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/j9o7SEMzEDI"}, {"id": "LFQdQgTTcY3bPVIJYxvb", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708659840339, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1709158098284, "question": "[short-fuse] Will \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba\u2014To the Hashira Training\" gross >$9 million during its opening weekend?", "slug": "shortfuse-will-demon-slayer-kimetsu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/shortfuse-will-demon-slayer-kimetsu", "pool": {"NO": 4148.304203064723, "YES": 89.69093329670204}, "probability": 0.9929347810089124, "p": 0.7523892313264922, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4027.215565345019, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709158098284, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709158098746, "lastBetTime": 1709158027739, "lastCommentTime": 1709158076716, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training\" (2024) grosses more than $9,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Source: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to resolve this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11032374/?ref_=bo_se_r_4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " would have been $21,234,994.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, AFAIK, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "typically", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Plot synopsis: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F46960766f653.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "hollywood", "entertainment", "movies", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "television-film", "boxoffice", "anime"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training\" (2024) grosses more than $9,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.\n\nSource: The \"Domestic Opening\" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl709394433/?ref_=bo_hm_rs will be used to resolve this market. \n\nI will use the \"Domestic Opening\" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the \"Domestic Opening\" for \"Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Movie: Mugen Train\" would have been $21,234,994.\n\nFor context, AFAIK, typically that \"Domestic Opening\" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution\u2014I will use their \"Domestic Opening\", however they calculate it.\n\nPlot synopsis: \n\nAfter his family was brutally murdered and his sister turned into a demon, Tanjiro Kamado's journey as a demon slayer began. Tanjiro and his comrades embark on a new mission aboard the Mugen Train, on track to despair."}, {"id": "rUe19GhdbKcdlqoNI4RP", "creatorId": "gDTaGlKh2Vh12elhDUerogZ9liQ2", "creatorUsername": "hairygentleman", "creatorName": "hairygentleman", "createdTime": 1709506331568, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu2Dl_Rn4nbYXKILDXMne782qd-3SDzOU4iFe_b9mw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712201476793, "question": "Will the 2024 FIDE Candidates chess tournament be held in Toronto, Canada?", "slug": "will-the-2024-fide-candidates-chess", "url": "https://manifold.markets/hairygentleman/will-the-2024-fide-candidates-chess", "pool": {"NO": 3853.750497014714, "YES": 181.04591758919543}, "probability": 0.9862733097538772, "p": 0.7714540726806267, "totalLiquidity": 440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6381.015810354029, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712201476793, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "gDTaGlKh2Vh12elhDUerogZ9liQ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712201476793, "lastBetTime": 1712145119709, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://candidates2024.fide.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://candidates2024.fide.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") is held in Toronto, otherwise NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["chess"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (https://candidates2024.fide.com/) is held in Toronto, otherwise NO. "}, {"id": "or92qjxBiQQ46aF4Yfge", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1673864063906, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1684961162035, "question": "Will Ron DeSantis file to run for president by June 30, 2023?", "slug": "will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-p", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-p", "pool": {"NO": 12820.020418321901, "YES": 316.23613385370055}, "probability": 0.9959863120754904, "p": 0.8595731099488233, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 18592.553213667914, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684961162035, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684956958185, "lastBetTime": 1684956958014, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, Ronald Dion DeSantis or his authorized representative does at least one of the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Files a Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Amends an existing Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the FEC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Designates a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Otherwise files or communicates with the FEC with the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for the 2024 election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please note that any informal declarations by Ron DeSantis and/or his representatives regarding DeSantis's intentions to run will have no bearing on this market; only the above criteria will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve based on the official FEC website (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.fec.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fec.gov/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money market: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-june-30-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-june-30-2023", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["polymarket"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if by June 30, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET, Ronald Dion DeSantis or his authorized representative does at least one of the following:\n\n-Files a Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the Federal Election Commission (FEC)\n\n-Amends an existing Statement of Candidacy for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election with the FEC\n\n-Designates a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election\n\n-Otherwise files or communicates with the FEC with the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for the 2024 election.\n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nPlease note that any informal declarations by Ron DeSantis and/or his representatives regarding DeSantis's intentions to run will have no bearing on this market; only the above criteria will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve based on the official FEC website (https://www.fec.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.\n\nreal money market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-president-by-june-30-2023"}, {"id": "2jFETRVIYwrgt9LeQYDI", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707687856687, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707721200000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-12 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-f25e6ec3d786", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-f25e6ec3d786", "pool": {"NO": 66.57570537921737, "YES": 100.00000000000003}, "probability": 0.08077986107407048, "p": 0.11660631835631145, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707773838136, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707773838384, "lastBetTime": 1707687969568, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-12 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-12 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=12", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F99301b6fc9cc.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-12 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-12 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "c2mBiR4DEKMCp4frjJWa", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1669850871559, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680386340000, "question": "Will the European Union ban Twitter by April 1?", "slug": "will-european-union-ban-twitter-by", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-european-union-ban-twitter-by", "pool": {"NO": 352.65157250705806, "YES": 6093.343385955985}, "probability": 0.007799583800305071, "p": 0.11958320059319034, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8393.751068207286, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1680431625616, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680385539804, "lastBetTime": 1680385539656, "lastCommentTime": 1669851561032, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A top European Union official warned Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday that the social media platform must take significant steps to comply with EU content moderation laws, and that European officials will be monitoring closely for compliance.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Twitter could face a Europe-wide ban or fines of up to 6 per cent of global turnover if it breached the law", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ft.com/content/a07ca1ae-9f9a-46ee-9457-27bb30e18ed2", "class": "WlydOe", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "read more: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/eu-raises-prospect-of-big-fine-or-ban-if-twitter-fails-to-follow-new-legislation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/eu-raises-prospect-of-big-fine-or-ban-if-twitter-fails-to-follow-new-legislation", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 1, 12:30am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will European Union ban Twitter by April 1?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the European Union ban Twitter by April 1?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FmRDfmkceHv.png?alt=media&token=ca258891-8010-476a-b1e5-a439f48965fc", "groupSlugs": ["twitter"], "textDescription": "A top European Union official warned Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday that the social media platform must take significant steps to comply with EU content moderation laws, and that European officials will be monitoring closely for compliance.\n\nTwitter could face a Europe-wide ban or fines of up to 6 per cent of global turnover if it breached the law\n\nread more: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/30/eu-raises-prospect-of-big-fine-or-ban-if-twitter-fails-to-follow-new-legislation\n\nDec 1, 12:30am: Will European Union ban Twitter by April 1? \u2192 Will the European Union ban Twitter by April 1?"}, {"id": "7JtxsdW6dGCgWvCnNmeU", "creatorId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "creatorUsername": "Mvem", "creatorName": "Mvem", "createdTime": 1691106446221, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBenjaminOrman%2FPirateAvatar.png?alt=media&token=1e22cd76-a338-416c-8d7c-9f71f6bf4d66", "closeTime": 1704724162265, "question": "Will Jordan Love be a top 15 quarterback in the 2023 NFL season?", "slug": "will-jordan-love-be-a-top-15-quarte", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mvem/will-jordan-love-be-a-top-15-quarte", "pool": {"NO": 5863.5076427172335, "YES": 116.21620114750067}, "probability": 0.9862368261794852, "p": 0.5868234525775243, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9243.004761378968, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704724162265, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705341691211, "lastBetTime": 1704724149115, "lastCommentTime": 1705341688944, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if Jordan Love is in the top 15 NFL quarterbacks on in at least 2 of the following 3 metrics: Yards, Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt, and Passer Rating. I will use the regular season Pro-Football-Reference leaderboard for resolution (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here is the 2022 page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/passing.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). If Love does not play at all next season I will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: One more clarification: Love must ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "qualify", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/minimums.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for the leaderboard to count as top 15. If he plays but does not qualify this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing.htm", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is the link to the leaderboard used for resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve YES if Jordan Love is in the top 15 NFL quarterbacks on in at least 2 of the following 3 metrics: Yards, Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt, and Passer Rating. I will use the regular season Pro-Football-Reference leaderboard for resolution (here is the 2022 page). If Love does not play at all next season I will resolve N/A.\n\nEDIT: One more clarification: Love must qualify for the leaderboard to count as top 15. If he plays but does not qualify this market resolves NO.\n\nHere is the link to the leaderboard used for resolution."}, {"id": "13ZodSj2REKgtjwJ2osy", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1697177054985, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1697243700000, "question": "Will TO flight 7002 from Paris to Pau on 2023-10-13 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?", "slug": "will-to-flight-7002-from-paris-to-p", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-to-flight-7002-from-paris-to-p", "pool": {"NO": 198.1939657967454, "YES": 143.63943276377705}, "probability": 0.6553544719781538, "p": 0.5794996818941798, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 134.70057049689942, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697300383100, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697230797768, "lastBetTime": 1697230797303, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/4y9jw6e6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/4y9jw6e6", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4y9jw6e6"}, {"id": "Sz45qd1aiu0mpBmaSXqe", "creatorId": "r3elkRN6rjOC5S5v8mWzyxxGpHq1", "creatorUsername": "Dave_9000ish", "creatorName": "Dave_9000ish", "createdTime": 1697403826733, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDave_9000ish%2FnUXM0G3EjI.jpg?alt=media&token=ae8d90c1-8898-4677-86b2-4bad11ee8ce4", "closeTime": 1697921674193, "question": "Will South Africa beat England in the semi finals Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-south-africa-beat-england-in-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Dave_9000ish/will-south-africa-beat-england-in-t", "pool": {"NO": 4316.9757376927255, "YES": 212.89396915315692}, "probability": 0.9795432142437128, "p": 0.702505099128983, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13219.798155800268, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697921674193, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697921653400, "lastBetTime": 1697921653260, "lastCommentTime": 1697888581899, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "4A0zQ1wDDC8JW7laAewn", "creatorId": "MJNcFq8k3kafswE5q0TlGngvhro1", "creatorUsername": "Abaoji", "creatorName": "Abaoji", "createdTime": 1705178223275, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAbaoji%2F5JSRSIKUF8.png?alt=media&token=0f982ab0-b2c1-4070-a8f7-955152deb73c", "closeTime": 1709264811807, "question": "Will the Montreal school bus strike end prior to March 1st 2024?", "slug": "will-the-montreal-school-bus-strike", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Abaoji/will-the-montreal-school-bus-strike", "pool": {"NO": 34.53479776217455, "YES": 1506.835530645787}, "probability": 0.01539978287200858, "p": 0.4056246811141856, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1423.6441834804543, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709264811807, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "MJNcFq8k3kafswE5q0TlGngvhro1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709264812734, "lastBetTime": 1709246216662, "lastCommentTime": 1709246204253, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Montreal school bus drivers have been on an unlimited general strike for 10 weeks (since Oct 31st 2023). This question resolves Yes if the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CSN union", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.csn.qc.ca/en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ends the strike prior to the start of March 1st 2024 (EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The resolution of this question will be determined by reference to local news media - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "LaPresse", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.lapresse.ca/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "/", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Montreal Gazette", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://montrealgazette.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet here.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Abaoji%2F90117ea1852a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["montreal", "strikes", "canada", "politics-default", "transportation"], "textDescription": "The Montreal school bus drivers have been on an unlimited general strike for 10 weeks (since Oct 31st 2023). This question resolves Yes if the CSN union ends the strike prior to the start of March 1st 2024 (EST).\n\nThe resolution of this question will be determined by reference to local news media - LaPresse/Montreal Gazette\n\nI will not bet here."}, {"id": "jKbydfJYquKbseZvHKB1", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1702316360571, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702396800000, "question": "Will Allianz SE close higher december 12th than the close of december 11th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-be5f627ac458", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-allianz-se-close-higher-decemb-be5f627ac458", "pool": {"NO": 138.73899508682229, "YES": 272.4551176978769}, "probability": 0.27954781871306417, "p": 0.4324588157854206, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 676.4603745831491, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702401803525, "resolutionProbability": 0.28, "resolverId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222352919, "lastBetTime": 1702395118909, "lastCommentTime": 1702401774198, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fvrx3rrK9SE.png?alt=media&token=5e7f8212-244e-4754-8ec8-06d5836f6385", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos%2F30c0c3d44ffa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/ALV:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "eH2iAaNiDUrwLXpSK18h", "creatorId": "T01Ba2H8tKT298whLVPDhtMTC1G3", "creatorUsername": "PassionFruit", "creatorName": "Passion Fruit", "createdTime": 1654368996154, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxhFZvSTFt27rKR2s3LkWLum0rtMkpkABTAq6-7=s96-c", "closeTime": 1654534800000, "question": "Will the Apple WWDC event be over an hour long?", "slug": "will-the-apple-wwdc-event-be-over-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PassionFruit/will-the-apple-wwdc-event-be-over-a", "pool": {"NO": 236.85292493169416, "YES": 79.52041623837545}, "probability": 0.9002659581920036, "p": 0.7518974144797362, "totalLiquidity": 102.12206239777055, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 195, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1654541375233, "resolutionProbability": 0.9002659581920036, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1654533768662, "lastBetTime": 1654533768487, "description": "", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "2cNhYfGugcLrm3wVgPui", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1697573316267, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1697670000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 18 than it closed on October 17?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-18", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-18", "pool": {"NO": 110.82846054698015, "YES": 1320.3280847177143}, "probability": 0.039999999999999994, "p": 0.3317231269878056, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2522.479119789043, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697676876463, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697676870597, "lastBetTime": 1697668735213, "lastCommentTime": 1697676869961, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.4915", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "664b226d-2e39-4051-8906-47e2a3b61668", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 15 than it closed on October 14?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.4915\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "2R2rEldNmk4EW4P6AFEr", "creatorId": "SgwsmmyeEudYQMoYpBJtKy3tNKk1", "creatorUsername": "Chocobo", "creatorName": "Chocobo", "createdTime": 1667208898515, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNier%2FsNDjziWhTQ.png?alt=media&token=cd22baf5-f31c-45ac-9aa8-0ffda942bc16", "closeTime": 1698064412220, "question": "Will Sahra Wagenknecht still be a member of \"Die Linke\" (\"The Left\") until the next federal election?", "slug": "will-sahra-wagenknecht-still-be-a-m", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Chocobo/will-sahra-wagenknecht-still-be-a-m", "pool": {"NO": 74.88881154942557, "YES": 4216.5437477388}, "probability": 0.010160780239874712, "p": 0.3662726675209684, "totalLiquidity": 440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5010.0772513608135, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698064412220, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698058316461, "lastBetTime": 1698058283317, "lastCommentTime": 1698058310695, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"NO\" if she leaves her party, voluntarily or not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahra_Wagenknecht", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "germany"], "textDescription": "This question resolves to \"NO\" if she leaves her party, voluntarily or not.\n\nWikipedia"}, {"id": "QpevOHGQmfclPYrLcU3P", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704396082632, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704466800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-05 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-a716325f3ae4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-a716325f3ae4", "pool": {"NO": 86.25158647445745, "YES": 111.00000000000006}, "probability": 0.13043472742199286, "p": 0.16180501953378043, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704489799629, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704489799907, "lastBetTime": 1704448997207, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-05 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-05 - 17:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2024&month=01&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2024&month=01&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1180", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcfd8004325ee.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-05 15:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-05 - 17:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "4fsN99OcQz5Ps7bQDHgz", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691551804524, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691881200000, "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher August 12th Than August 11th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-6a8f1a7062f4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-6a8f1a7062f4", "pool": {"NO": 298.0955543518092, "YES": 225.11773973033394}, "probability": 0.5204291798830875, "p": 0.4504065270726299, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 663.5245466171392, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691885803405, "resolutionProbability": 0.52, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691885799657, "lastBetTime": 1691878688992, "lastCommentTime": 1691885797113, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 11th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fxx5O4xXQCs.png?alt=media&token=0d6b9e03-b1db-4060-88d2-692e9541d422", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "crypto-speculation", "finance", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 11th Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "WKrwy0EIHTPvVAqMuQSM", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1682826963227, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698735540000, "question": "Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Oct 2023?", "slug": "will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-79f6d0dbfdc0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-predictit-still-be-operating-m-79f6d0dbfdc0", "pool": {"NO": 2029.059359731642, "YES": 92.90552088978393}, "probability": 0.9901024833732746, "p": 0.8208004530096497, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1979.5157238971447, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699222541910, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698723465549, "lastBetTime": 1698723465398, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through Oct 2023 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues). ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": PredictIt was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ordered ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "injunction ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/27/2596580/0/en/Fifth-Circuit-Grants-Injunction-Allowing-PredictIt-Market-to-Continue-Operating.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FVJEmzvv0H1.png?alt=media&token=28af172c-2c16-43d4-860a-b335dc48de15", "groupSlugs": ["predictit"], "textDescription": "Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through Oct 2023 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues). \nResolves YES otherwise.\n\nBackground: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.\n\n\n"}, {"id": "WIBzB2gLbvJCQScImteH", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1707096192289, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1710117035484, "question": "Will the 3 \"Arts & Crafts\" Oscars (Makeup/Costume/Production) be awarded to 3 different movies at the Academy Awards?", "slug": "will-the-3-arts-crafts-oscars-makeu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-arts-crafts-oscars-makeu", "pool": {"NO": 17.795093510829815, "YES": 3324.60795297361}, "probability": 0.002830600192706257, "p": 0.3465480254284952, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3686.434287993494, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710117035484, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710117037170, "lastBetTime": 1710117026010, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "96th Academy Awards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. \"Arts & crafts\" is not an official term, it's just my shorthand for the following three ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "categories", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Tsunombie/which-film-will-win-the-best-makeup-1f5292ef0128", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "COSTUME DESIGN (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/mkalbert/what-movie-will-win-the-2024-academ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PRODUCTION DESIGN (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Tsunombie/which-film-will-win-the-best-produc", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if these awards are spread between three different films. This market will resolve NO if any film wins multiple of these awards.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The following 5 films have multiple nominations:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Barbie", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Killers of the Flower Moon", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Napoleon", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oppenheimer", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Poor Things", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please ask if any aspects of resolution are unclear.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-4-acting-oscars-be-awarded", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-sonic-oscars-sound-score", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2Fdf8aed66d4b5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["oscars", "hollywood", "oscars-2024", "movies", "awards-shows", "television-film", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "The 96th Academy Awards, held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. \"Arts & crafts\" is not an official term, it's just my shorthand for the following three categories:\n\nMAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING (example market)\n\nCOSTUME DESIGN (example market)\n\nPRODUCTION DESIGN (example market)\n\nThis market will resolve YES if these awards are spread between three different films. This market will resolve NO if any film wins multiple of these awards.\n\nThe following 5 films have multiple nominations:\n\nBarbie\n\nKillers of the Flower Moon\n\nNapoleon\n\nOppenheimer\n\nPoor Things\n\nPlease ask if any aspects of resolution are unclear.\n\nRelated markets:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-4-acting-oscars-be-awarded)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-the-3-sonic-oscars-sound-score)"}, {"id": "P6Q4srioENBUoqp1hUT4", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1701697483690, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1717015392197, "question": "Will Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree DLC expansion be available to the public before Jan 1st 2025?", "slug": "will-elden-ring-shadow-of-the-erdtr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elden-ring-shadow-of-the-erdtr", "pool": {"NO": 2276.2686707521566, "YES": 887.4768672611109}, "probability": 0.9778796126724973, "p": 0.9451621837760447, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1417.9805511824848, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717015392197, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717015392197, "lastBetTime": 1717015385336, "lastCommentTime": 1705346211908, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo/99c9d748912d.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=CK0g%2B%2BnIa8wqLfFJNblZyMLnZL%2F72XZCdWusQtIqKYeHu%2BqJ%2Fxsiuu1tVeFS2C%2F6e6cmzOuDFQQahDqBmD3IRTxhClx4xy407INuj8r2TUy1roUh%2FJEmL771bviwiZjHFT4X7U1PX8pjWQNSIL%2BRS3HhzSZFvWIEaWxN%2BdbIwWf%2FIyeLHqy2AvD3VY0G%2F5mQqQ4vkN4QxhQEw%2FRlEkTduLfJsxWkxig9tBaaDfAxLfbW1PqV1ri%2F0LxZX1k0RljCwRPrubZRD7quCBBxr0AbIa5mnEBBesHOMEd362AzUdHUixQktTX5YBRaMo9zJeRJBzqDSSWdni8W49a%2BXcnK1Q%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["video-games", "gaming", "elden-ring", "fromsoftware", "release-dates"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "4cZcd1Dn4dal5lDMvozr", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1696535951497, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1696633200000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 6 than it closed on October 5?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-6", "pool": {"NO": 1392.074724403978, "YES": 11.211162040005888}, "probability": 0.9908169223330147, "p": 0.46493932029187823, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1716.729671017792, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696641623577, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696641621399, "lastBetTime": 1696631589783, "lastCommentTime": 1696641620701, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5229", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "cf657d24-8c0f-4d67-80c4-2169d3846c85", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 4 than it closed on October 3?bacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5229\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "DQVqGuipaqDTULtsgKRJ", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1693554453639, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1693709585048, "question": "2023 NCAA Football: Will Texas State defeat Baylor?", "slug": "2023-ncaa-football-will-texas-state", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-texas-state", "pool": {"NO": 7384.632040166379, "YES": 17.373442951618472}, "probability": 0.9991212121308435, "p": 0.7278762758465599, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9290.544344375932, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693709585048, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693709561189, "lastBetTime": 1693709561030, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 2, 2023 - 6:00 PM CDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "McLane Stadium - Waco, Texas", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NCAA game page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154240", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154240", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Series history: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.winsipedia.com/texas-state/vs/baylor", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.winsipedia.com/texas-state/vs/baylor", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["college-football", "sports-default", "football", "texas", "texas-state-university", "baylor-university"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 2, 2023 - 6:00 PM CDT\n\nMcLane Stadium - Waco, Texas\n\nNCAA game page: https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154240\n\nSeries history: https://www.winsipedia.com/texas-state/vs/baylor\n\n"}, {"id": "Kslak47EREvLe0XA8TRk", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116554789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704178800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-02 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-578dbfa8eaa0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-578dbfa8eaa0", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.19672131147540983, "p": 0.19672131147540983, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704194248366, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704194248506, "lastBetTime": 1704116565085, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-02 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4428bcc93571.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-02 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "LoSBB3krCogzllvyjB4W", "creatorId": "2eLbfaaBmjeKLKMgnpV6TkDmCU83", "creatorUsername": "JoshuaWilkes", "creatorName": "Josh Wilkes", "createdTime": 1692254807960, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshuaWilkes%2FXIGVWxU1ja.jpg?alt=media&token=f06848d8-7813-437c-a516-65b151c295c8", "closeTime": 1693497540000, "question": "Will Beijing publicly criticise Brazilian President Lula for shaking hands with Taiwanese Vice-President Lai?", "slug": "will-beijing-publicly-criticise-bra", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-beijing-publicly-criticise-bra", "pool": {"NO": 113.87874762447942, "YES": 687.3089453046578}, "probability": 0.09000000000000005, "p": 0.37379148276901697, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 801.7742412611391, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693707684120, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693523548337, "lastBetTime": 1693480500223, "lastCommentTime": 1693523547965, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will take a broad view of what could be construed as criticism, but it must clearly reference the event in a negative way.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 8.31", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcaCsuYJe0H.jpeg?alt=media&token=d2c2c562-d9ef-4789-ae1b-e8effbab609d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/stasbutler/status/1692025915226906720?s=20", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/stasbutler/status/1692025915226906720?s=20", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["china", "taiwan", "chinese-politics", "brazil-3292d24d179f", "geopolitics", "paraguay"], "textDescription": "I will take a broad view of what could be construed as criticism, but it must clearly reference the event in a negative way.\n\nCloses 8.31\n\n[image]https://twitter.com/stasbutler/status/1692025915226906720?s=20"}, {"id": "CykWIMhPfizWSMtBXLWo", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1712006797884, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1712086200000, "question": "Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher Apr 2 than Apr 1?", "slug": "will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b12c925a9e51", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-apple-nasdaq-aapl-close-higher-b12c925a9e51", "pool": {"NO": 73.2396752623513, "YES": 1117.4273770570585}, "probability": 0.03907968303128037, "p": 0.3829036638732868, "totalLiquidity": 320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1996.7825329972836, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1712093713619, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712086200000, "lastBetTime": 1712085361246, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple Inc - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Daily Dashboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/news/daily-markets-sports", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nasdaq Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/aapl", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AAPL closes at 4pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 3:30pm ET", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if AAPL closes higher Apr 2 than Apr 1", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if AAPL closes lower or flat", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["ai-stocks", "stocks", "aapl", "nasdaq", "apple", "tech-stocks"], "textDescription": "Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard\n\nResolves according to Nasdaq Close Price\n\nAAPL closes at 4pm ET\n\nThis market closes at 3:30pm ET\n\nInitial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.\n\nResolves YES if AAPL closes higher Apr 2 than Apr 1\n\nResolves NO if AAPL closes lower or flat\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "Tj3kgGcZETEo340NKFA1", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1691999098443, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1704311654243, "question": "Will Yahtzee Croshaw of Zero Punctuation have Baldur's Gate 3 in his top 5 best games of 2023?", "slug": "will-yahtzee-croshaw-of-zero-punctu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-yahtzee-croshaw-of-zero-punctu", "pool": {"NO": 38.50361868136542, "YES": 398.7279776001859}, "probability": 0.14971344506465342, "p": 0.6458111504402133, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 737.743789340527, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704311654243, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704331647892, "lastBetTime": 1704307669083, "lastCommentTime": 1704331647190, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yahtzee Croshaw does a Best, Worst and Blandest list for every year. For example, here is the list from 2022: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLP5zJ_brGE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLP5zJ_brGE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Baldur's Gate 3 makes it into the top 5 of the \"Best\" list for 2023, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["yahtzee-croshaw", "gaming", "video-games", "culture-default", "entertainment", "youtube", "zero-punctuation", "goty"], "textDescription": "Yahtzee Croshaw does a Best, Worst and Blandest list for every year. For example, here is the list from 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLP5zJ_brGE\n\nIf Baldur's Gate 3 makes it into the top 5 of the \"Best\" list for 2023, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise NO."}, {"id": "0fCIfAcC5Rydult53uu3", "creatorId": "OQaC0IrVMpeUFAMgsU0PE0Hvkyu1", "creatorUsername": "probajoelistic", "creatorName": "Probajoelistic", "createdTime": 1698004938984, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoelSteadman%2FkwWzXIxqUe.png?alt=media&token=a3c4d3ac-b7a9-4d9a-aef4-27ec116e3424", "closeTime": 1698710839704, "question": "Will Apple announce new Macs this month?", "slug": "will-apple-announce-new-new-macs-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/probajoelistic/will-apple-announce-new-new-macs-th", "pool": {"NO": 4345.130414904395, "YES": 383.45140705872575}, "probability": 0.9856452301771758, "p": 0.8583455426217624, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5774.755726523887, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698710839704, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206679810, "lastBetTime": 1698710793467, "lastCommentTime": 1698674195228, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": "New Mac computer 2023", "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FcdHE6zOxDW.png?alt=media&token=aedca184-47ba-472d-81ed-8a5993cdadc5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, I'll interpret \"this month\" as up to a month after the MacRumors article that states \"this month\" in the headline, so up to Nov 22nd.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any hardware change will count even if it's just updating to M2 chips or something. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "[image]For the purposes of this market, I'll interpret \"this month\" as up to a month after the MacRumors article that states \"this month\" in the headline, so up to Nov 22nd.\n\nAny hardware change will count even if it's just updating to M2 chips or something. "}, {"id": "lcKXbGSeS0lNIKUpszeD", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1715107981506, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717225140000, "question": "Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes again in May 2024?", "slug": "will-destiny-talk-to-nick-fuentes-a-2483d5de0271", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-destiny-talk-to-nick-fuentes-a-2483d5de0271", "pool": {"NO": 693.1570403048829, "YES": 4618.362065594358}, "probability": 0.03182202765952939, "p": 0.17965032268482248, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4022.6392169352644, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717234451221, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717225140000, "lastBetTime": 1717171426990, "lastCommentTime": 1715726593387, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1787858216967192585"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon even commented under this tweet.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEYmPypN-0-.png?alt=media&token=246c3054-4d9c-40a0-bfb1-a0f690f4b272", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be done publicly in a voice call or in person.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related Markets: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "CEEnOCA0EG4168QGJIog,LKiDGGTlQKVMjtriUqyg"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry/f858f4c3f686.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "culture-default", "politics-default", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.\n\n\n[tweet]Elon even commented under this tweet.\n\n\n[image]Must be done publicly in a voice call or in person.\n\nRelated Markets: \n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "A2wsQyfZ87Ncyi3v5F3D", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1673463344536, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1690581540000, "question": "Will the Grand Egyptian Museum (GEM) open before August?", "slug": "will-the-grand-egyptian-museum-gem", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-the-grand-egyptian-museum-gem", "pool": {"NO": 111.79313682298775, "YES": 1300.5882353967475}, "probability": 0.0229818897337143, "p": 0.21485974122511206, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1390.5887119305291, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690909957091, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690572487354, "lastBetTime": 1690572487193, "lastCommentTime": 1681669175550, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Grand Egyptian Museum", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Egyptian_Museum", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be the largest archaeological museum in the world. Opening is delayed and currently no official date is provided.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It needs to be open for the general public. Currently private tours are available but that does not count as \"open\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["archaeology"], "textDescription": "The Grand Egyptian Museum will be the largest archaeological museum in the world. Opening is delayed and currently no official date is provided.\n\nIt needs to be open for the general public. Currently private tours are available but that does not count as \"open\"."}, {"id": "fWWaSt15yt38OyVACIP3", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1693443870737, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1693670400000, "question": "Will LX flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-09-02 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-d874276346d3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-lx-flight-1111-from-munich-to-d874276346d3", "pool": {"NO": 185.03441556692158, "YES": 166.5944409863022}, "probability": 0.9000000000000006, "p": 0.8901471556754914, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 383.15278589765404, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693687319324, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693669376353, "lastBetTime": 1693669375894, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/y3yxcnw8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/y3yxcnw8", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/y3yxcnw8"}, {"id": "e7vvXm3Ui1RbpXdwXKRX", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1699491937325, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1701112500000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on Mon. November 27th than it closed on Fri. November 24th? {DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-96dd3561bdb6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-96dd3561bdb6", "pool": {"NO": 113.26818792610213, "YES": 812.545986196409}, "probability": 0.06000000000000006, "p": 0.31407830217339566, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1009.2756998482804, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701123791517, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701123784078, "lastBetTime": 1701112161594, "lastCommentTime": 1701123782958, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 215pm ET (615pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FomZfoYOl0l.png?alt=media&token=26474ef9-f738-4df7-8aaf-b84456e4a0a9", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-390ec7772449", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "sccsq4", "stocks", "finance", "stock-marketweekly"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at 215pm ET (615pm UTC)\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS \n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-390ec7772449)"}, {"id": "IZX2r10Qq2ncXYSyNeYu", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1699637203698, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1699891200000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher november 13th than the close of november 10th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-aff6fd7d9742", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-aff6fd7d9742", "pool": {"NO": 439.6352242090085, "YES": 149.93347057547408}, "probability": 0.8634588894106704, "p": 0.6832107953700223, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 320.36275670557455, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699895476029, "resolutionProbability": 0.86, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699895472682, "lastBetTime": 1699890854076, "lastCommentTime": 1699895472228, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FhGZTS5HbNm.png?alt=media&token=ef6de6b2-0649-4332-8904-e4f8f5d1e558", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "QG7GC6ELEUOViBRPzSwl", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1672837710573, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1674205870035, "question": "Will Genesis announce it is filing for bankruptcy by January 31, 2023?", "slug": "will-genesis-announce-it-is-filing", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-genesis-announce-it-is-filing", "pool": {"NO": 4946.474416382402, "YES": 78.7039585951884}, "probability": 0.99763838896736, "p": 0.8704913264465117, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5413.529319945885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1674205870035, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1674205864756, "lastBetTime": 1674205864639, "lastCommentTime": 1674192519376, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Genesis (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://genesistrading.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://genesistrading.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by January 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any subsidiary of Genesis announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the resolution date. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For a positive resolution to this market to occur, Genesis need only announce that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy by the resolution date, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. An \"announcement by Genesis\" must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://genesistrading.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://genesistrading.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/genesistrading", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/genesistrading", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", etc.), as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Genesis. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine whether Genesis has issued such an announcement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money market: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-genesis-announce-it-is-filing-for-bankruptcy-by-january-31-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-genesis-announce-it-is-filing-for-bankruptcy-by-january-31-2023", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKVIgylEWhL.png?alt=media&token=74b01c0b-e5bf-4f40-aaeb-2bead5759ebc", "groupSlugs": ["polymarket", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022", "crypto-news"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Genesis (https://genesistrading.com/) announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by January 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThis market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any subsidiary of Genesis announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the resolution date. \n\nFor a positive resolution to this market to occur, Genesis need only announce that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy by the resolution date, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. An \"announcement by Genesis\" must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. https://genesistrading.com/, https://twitter.com/genesistrading, etc.), as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Genesis. \n\nA consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine whether Genesis has issued such an announcement.\n\nreal money market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-genesis-announce-it-is-filing-for-bankruptcy-by-january-31-2023"}, {"id": "4fTIIRyOoxIbXAJWANrP", "creatorId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "creatorUsername": "MikeChenSF", "creatorName": "Mike Chen", "createdTime": 1683522650115, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697348933479, "question": "Will California AB 645 (speed safety cameras) become law in 2023?", "slug": "will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-fddd72fb4a92", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-fddd72fb4a92", "pool": {"NO": 2319.153870633533, "YES": 43.110359301958404}, "probability": 0.9910894747211954, "p": 0.6740097843394016, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4041.7947376668085, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697348933479, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697293851918, "lastBetTime": 1697293851598, "lastCommentTime": 1697266472341, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Assembly Bill 645", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billHistoryClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240AB645", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "summary from Walk SF", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://walksf.org/our-work/campaigns/ab-645-speed-safety-cameras", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") would allow six California cities to pilot traffic speed cameras (which are currently illegal). This market shall resolve to YES if the bill becomes law in 2023. October 14, 2023 is the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "last day for the Governor to sign bills", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.assembly.ca.gov/schedules-publications/legislative-deadlines", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and that's why this is the market close date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-234ba086cb1b", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F6f6hzMZSPk.png?alt=media&token=f55307be-822a-45ef-ac1d-9963174cf91c", "groupSlugs": ["california", "california-politics"], "textDescription": "Assembly Bill 645 (summary from Walk SF) would allow six California cities to pilot traffic speed cameras (which are currently illegal). This market shall resolve to YES if the bill becomes law in 2023. October 14, 2023 is the last day for the Governor to sign bills, and that's why this is the market close date.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MCMillennium/will-california-ab-645-speed-safety-234ba086cb1b)"}, {"id": "iTx6MtSFdUK3Dv4PFGsX", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1696187254159, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1698876977569, "question": "Will a human trader outscore the best trading bot in the S6 leagues: October edition?", "slug": "will-a-human-trader-outscore-the-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-a-human-trader-outscore-the-be", "pool": {"NO": 11019.857150728742, "YES": 5.514052147807888}, "probability": 0.9996473698472058, "p": 0.5865166317959754, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14309.663373165413, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698876977569, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698876973072, "lastBetTime": 1698876972932, "lastCommentTime": 1698290699925, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "if a human trader from any league out scores the best bot (Aka a silicon league trader, unless its renamed - if it is then i will update description), then resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "if a human trader from any league out scores the best bot (Aka a silicon league trader, unless its renamed - if it is then i will update description), then resolves YES"}, {"id": "f2ruEK9fwbB0QEBFvCQ0", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1666379232319, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1671051615010, "question": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup champion be a first time winner?", "slug": "will-the-fifa-2022-world-cup-champi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-fifa-2022-world-cup-champi", "pool": {"NO": 64.15373425641064, "YES": 10355.904741518449}, "probability": 0.0030923682526273564, "p": 0.3336569951555597, "totalLiquidity": 380, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11789.94795774647, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1671051615010, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671051604428, "lastBetTime": 1671051604313, "lastCommentTime": 1666379750132, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if the winner of the 2022 FIFA world cup final has won it for the first time in their history of participating in the world cup as their current country. Resolves no if the winning country of the 2022 FIFA world cup final has won it before.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 21, 3:37pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the FIFA 2022 World Cup champion be a first time winner?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup champion be a first time winner?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-18 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "Resolves yes if the winner of the 2022 FIFA world cup final has won it for the first time in their history of participating in the world cup as their current country. Resolves no if the winning country of the 2022 FIFA world cup final has won it before.\n\nOct 21, 3:37pm: Will the FIFA 2022 World Cup champion be a first time winner? \u2192 Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup champion be a first time winner?\n\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-18 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "R3kFGjV33zVRKxTodBRq", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1692659260330, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1693540740000, "question": "Will Trump's bail be revoked in August?", "slug": "will-trumps-bail-be-revoked-in-augu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-trumps-bail-be-revoked-in-augu", "pool": {"NO": 96.86084392065018, "YES": 1868.866758284293}, "probability": 0.0034616570378221694, "p": 0.06281257099656676, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2004, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693571123368, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693538282147, "lastBetTime": 1693538282032, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if any judge revokes Trump's bail in August 2023, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The definition of \"revoking bail\" here is the legal definition in the relevant jurisdication. If that is unclear, then a consensus of reliable media reporting may be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "donald-trump", "politics-default", "magaland"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if any judge revokes Trump's bail in August 2023, otherwise NO.\n\nThe definition of \"revoking bail\" here is the legal definition in the relevant jurisdication. If that is unclear, then a consensus of reliable media reporting may be used."}, {"id": "yKC7InvWqBiGV3BI7wFJ", "creatorId": "HxENMbrEyaVidRJrcBWdDR6u0H23", "creatorUsername": "Hedgehog", "creatorName": "\ud83e\udd94", "createdTime": 1678068315438, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSamBowman%2FOGhtqjcjdf.jpg?alt=media&token=c65a9f73-7fb7-4c0a-897f-7f42e2021c0b", "closeTime": 1683696913279, "question": "Will Google have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe-c519b74b9e17", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-google-have-an-active-agi-safe-c519b74b9e17", "pool": {"NO": 170.87341023597568, "YES": 271.8843588785757}, "probability": 0.2879807961999965, "p": 0.3915605462390658, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 295.9498290187401, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683696913279, "resolutionProbability": 0.29, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683726030797, "lastBetTime": 1681271539557, "lastCommentTime": 1683726027467, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cAGI safety effort\u201d can be demonstrated by either:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "catastrophic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Papers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "arXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there\u2019s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "primary", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCoSdX2IluI.png?alt=media&token=640f1c55-31a0-44a1-b2d6-bc13d245d766", "groupSlugs": ["technical-ai-safety"], "textDescription": "\u201cAGI safety effort\u201d can be demonstrated by either:\n\nAt least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.\n\nPapers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution.\n\narXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there\u2019s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers.\n\nCiting typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above.\n\nOne blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support.\n\nThis must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own.\n\nWill resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening."}, {"id": "JTHeI7yegIxUaxewbzTE", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1671045906103, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1675283455812, "question": "Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 25 bps in the Feb 2023 meeting?", "slug": "will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-a851ad31703f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-fed-raise-the-fed-funds-ra-a851ad31703f", "pool": {"NO": 21591.031702949855, "YES": 278.96122771818483}, "probability": 0.9985344492499688, "p": 0.8979908201328917, "totalLiquidity": 470, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22438.21907589738, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1675283455812, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675285045276, "lastBetTime": 1675283405510, "lastCommentTime": 1675285042238, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Grouped questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "JTHeI7yegIxUaxewbzTE,z8bodKxX0SBHbN6K4PSt,gEJyJ0qYmiBZae68LOtC"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FpVrslFWjUV.png?alt=media&token=9e60f4dd-4c73-465f-90e8-74af657060ba", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "federal-reserve"], "textDescription": "How much will The Fed raise the fed funds rate at their next scheduled meeting, Jan 31 - Feb 1 2023? Resolves YES if they raise the rate by at least the amount specified in the title, otherwise NO.\n\nGrouped questions:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "ZId6SIjusp7D3fhdj18B", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702452710753, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702662300000, "question": "Will flight DL 535 from Los angeles to New york departing on 2023-12-15 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-535-from-los-angeles-c0fd6bf6c1ad", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-535-from-los-angeles-c0fd6bf6c1ad", "pool": {"NO": 70.64120477396241, "YES": 65.10188699892721}, "probability": 0.1218635929128181, "p": 0.113391237221281, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702709999600, "resolutionProbability": 0.12, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702464213111, "lastBetTime": 1702464212824, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 535 from Los angeles (LAX) to New york (JFK), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-15 17:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 19:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a011:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 05:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/535?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/535?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl535", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcfffddfb6e26.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 535 from Los angeles (LAX) to New york (JFK), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-15 17:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 19:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a011:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 05:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "zjzelvjo4nQ8DX4VF52X", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1694979645873, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695022200000, "question": "Will UO flight 687 from Osaka to Hong Kong on 2023-09-18 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-uo-flight-687-from-osaka-to-ho-c3aa41a0bf77", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-uo-flight-687-from-osaka-to-ho-c3aa41a0bf77", "pool": {"NO": 240.52985156281278, "YES": 416.63349276679924}, "probability": 0.9382395544921095, "p": 0.9633888718812237, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 224.03408339372558, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695058464784, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695021701356, "lastBetTime": 1695021701177, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/mrck3f56", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/mrck3f56", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/mrck3f56"}, {"id": "ZxVbPlFOPMA7yRc8DvID", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1701978545627, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702350000000, "question": "Will Crude Oil Jan 24 close higher on Dec 11 than Dec 8? (CL=F Daily)", "slug": "will-crude-oil-jan-24-close-higher-20d9a90dae97", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-crude-oil-jan-24-close-higher-20d9a90dae97", "pool": {"NO": 831.51104494122, "YES": 90.71718496706919}, "probability": 0.9517795752588131, "p": 0.6828830574520053, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702358753589, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702358745089, "lastBetTime": 1702348882370, "lastCommentTime": 1702358744366, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Crude Oil closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 71.26", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF?p=CL%3DF", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts/6a712b5047d6.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=bIo%2B0C1c8rFB%2FxZ4ZVPJcA9Wrk0sgvcXfhG1hecop3%2BMmhstOUybySonriclrM6h%2FB%2BSddy4awVmCC5yV6XoQxGURvH11%2BGM32%2B76bfWiyMpARrMfpgJwwDzjdCuAXACftZdFeg8RvwQLD97SaPnniCCzpINhVBzjl%2BuZvCXckUBNb7a7eV73chZBONVz%2FGuaYZ4UtywVHnHcbmlvCN2fIv%2BH8GxibaFsKzrOHy9xfsRC6BdRoVnN1gWzbzRbmAyedW6NsiHu%2FPsQelbIRTmHDfJFCYuC6w5%2BN%2FEwz8SyRD1ecvjdHWh1SE9agAFExqXZ7hy2Rbx7f0oJVS6r%2BNq5Q%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["futures-stocks", "sccsq4", "stocks", "economics-default", "crude-oil", "finance"], "textDescription": "Crude Oil closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier.\n\nPrevious Close Price: 71.26\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "RkCijKBBaNTmgyy19z7X", "creatorId": "HW8FLxBmGZNRMLejKnomKho1k563", "creatorUsername": "alexkropivny", "creatorName": "Alex Kropivny", "createdTime": 1693090026358, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAlexKropivny%2FNA0u8UTOfZ.png?alt=media&token=0233fe42-530e-4eac-ab16-0d5179e3c0ad", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will seL4 ship in a commercially-available product in 2023?", "slug": "will-sel4-ship-in-a-commerciallyava", "url": "https://manifold.markets/alexkropivny/will-sel4-ship-in-a-commerciallyava", "pool": {"NO": 81.06429494381361, "YES": 570.3469204401197}, "probability": 0.050000000000000024, "p": 0.2702337848090815, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 626.0342302820441, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704260957693, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "HW8FLxBmGZNRMLejKnomKho1k563", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704260957881, "lastBetTime": 1704079458726, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "seL4 ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sel4.systems/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "is an ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "open-source ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/seL4/seL4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "microkernel providing ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "capability-based security ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capability-based_security", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "and optional", "type": "text"}, {"text": " formal verification", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://sel4.systems/Info/FAQ/proof.pml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Think of it as a midpoint between ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FreeRTOS ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.freertos.org/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "INTEGRITY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ghs.com/products/rtos/integrity.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " except everyone can re-run the proofs themselves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thus far it's been limited to defense and infrastructure uses. Projects like DARPA's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "HACMS ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.darpa.mil/program/high-assurance-cyber-military-systems", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "built demonstrations like ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SMACCM", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trustworthy.systems/projects/TS/SMACCM/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", but there's no public products from Rockwell Collins or their ilk.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Capability-based operating systems have interesting security implications. The public RTOS space has been pretty dull as far as memory protection and task isolation. Will we see it open up to participants outside research labs or defense contractors?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if and only if a non-development device (e.g. not a ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Sabre Lite", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://boundarydevices.com/product/bd-sl-i-mx6/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", not a generic \"IoT Edge Device\" kit) is available for general purchase and confirmed to run seL4. Confirmation should be through 3rd party publication of boot logs, analysis of publically-available firmware downloads, or 3rd party hands-on review.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Devices only sold as part of larger integrated systems (e.g. gas power plants or planes) that you can't purchase individually will not count. Devices that are difficult to purchase (contact for a quote / limited to some countries or industries) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "will", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " count, as long as 3rd party confirmations occur.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F4d6wr1XWox.png?alt=media&token=f15466d4-d549-4f70-8c51-564b99f20c73", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "defense-industry", "information-security", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "seL4 is an open-source microkernel providing capability-based security and optional formal verification. Think of it as a midpoint between FreeRTOS and INTEGRITY except everyone can re-run the proofs themselves.\n\nThus far it's been limited to defense and infrastructure uses. Projects like DARPA's HACMS built demonstrations like SMACCM, but there's no public products from Rockwell Collins or their ilk.\n\nCapability-based operating systems have interesting security implications. The public RTOS space has been pretty dull as far as memory protection and task isolation. Will we see it open up to participants outside research labs or defense contractors?\n\nResolution:\n\nResolves yes if and only if a non-development device (e.g. not a Sabre Lite, not a generic \"IoT Edge Device\" kit) is available for general purchase and confirmed to run seL4. Confirmation should be through 3rd party publication of boot logs, analysis of publically-available firmware downloads, or 3rd party hands-on review.\n\nDevices only sold as part of larger integrated systems (e.g. gas power plants or planes) that you can't purchase individually will not count. Devices that are difficult to purchase (contact for a quote / limited to some countries or industries) will count, as long as 3rd party confirmations occur."}, {"id": "Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2", "creatorId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "creatorUsername": "Joshua", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1716829618260, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Flove-images%2FQ-cHyvFvAI.png?alt=media&token=363611e5-3f90-45c9-87d5-f5791800ee6f", "closeTime": 1717072278634, "question": "Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised?", "slug": "will-the-time-100-most-influential", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-the-time-100-most-influential", "pool": {"NO": 13609.17464886922, "YES": 73.47984178328602}, "probability": 0.99462970859686, "p": 0.49999999999999756, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28795.82685449957, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717072278634, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717432108982, "lastBetTime": 1717072258127, "lastCommentTime": 1717432106337, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This page ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://time100cos.com/#faqs", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "has just said \"2024 HONOREES ANNOUNCED IN MAY\" for ages now. I've been checking every day for my market, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "C4WdcK1OhcDbH0AKvBdw", "label": "/Joshua/what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The FAQ says:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FRrOqxm5m11.png?alt=media&token=5ace2baf-8f53-445e-80d0-55cae662dc5f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 11:59 PM PT on Friday, May 31st. If the list is published before market close, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Joshua/1dcab30a203f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "technology-default", "business", "companies"], "textDescription": "This page has just said \"2024 HONOREES ANNOUNCED IN MAY\" for ages now. I've been checking every day for my market, @/Joshua/what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1 \n\nThe FAQ says:\n\n[image]This market closes at 11:59 PM PT on Friday, May 31st. If the list is published before market close, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO."}, {"id": "Ic6xVRhsvG6ritM0jUYq", "creatorId": "UudsQmNTDVgTG8j5ZH4VmRU3nSq1", "creatorUsername": "Harlan", "creatorName": "Harlan", "createdTime": 1699129066106, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1IPPKptExrtr-CdWbnKlyflrICQGnHZH6mrJT1Ew=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712613580874, "question": "Will Weather Underground describe conditions in Austin, TX as \"sunny\" or \"fair\" at 1pm on April 8, 2024?", "slug": "will-weather-underground-describe-c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Harlan/will-weather-underground-describe-c", "pool": {"NO": 144.43172657784078, "YES": 496.08157531677125}, "probability": 0.12125134817302229, "p": 0.32154082354739355, "totalLiquidity": 225, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 676.5660034695874, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1712613580874, "resolutionProbability": 0.12, "resolverId": "UudsQmNTDVgTG8j5ZH4VmRU3nSq1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712613580874, "lastBetTime": 1712334367009, "lastCommentTime": 1708756171444, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See historical weather data here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9255ab5-b371-4feb-8ca1-c7fb79daea06", "url": "https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin", "image": "https://www.wunderground.com/static/i/c/v4/32.svg", "title": "Austin, TX Weather History | Weather Underground", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": null, "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["weather", "astronomy"], "textDescription": "See historical weather data here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "40Y5dmM84Ahf8X9RoSnH", "creatorId": "GPpWQpjHAgPvW3BlsKZf8qhv4yH3", "creatorUsername": "jonmast", "creatorName": "Jonathan", "createdTime": 1664730832908, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJonathanMast%2FvrBNbxEPtm.16?alt=media&token=48f2b259-c160-4489-bde5-fc76572098e8", "closeTime": 1667994636535, "question": "Will Josh Shapiro win the 2022 Pennsylvania governor's race?", "slug": "will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2022-penn", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jonmast/will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2022-penn", "pool": {"NO": 2206.7364169052503, "YES": 289.1794969637154}, "probability": 0.9764656364316951, "p": 0.8446518167474122, "totalLiquidity": 440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5664.007393186878, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1667994636535, "resolutionProbability": 0.9764656364316955, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667986215035, "lastBetTime": 1667986214916, "lastCommentTime": 1666056498058, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Josh Shapiro (Democrat) is running against Doug Mastriano (Republican) for the PA governorship. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Josh Shapiro wins, if anyone else wins it will resolve to no.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "us-2022-midterms"], "textDescription": "Josh Shapiro (Democrat) is running against Doug Mastriano (Republican) for the PA governorship. \n\nResolves yes if Josh Shapiro wins, if anyone else wins it will resolve to no."}, {"id": "53qf7R23soud14e6CPmS", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1699403409509, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1701048739746, "question": "NBA (Nov 26, 2023): Will the Memphis Grizzlies (home) beat the Minnesota Timberwolves (away)?", "slug": "nba-nov-26-2023-will-the-memphis-gr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/nba-nov-26-2023-will-the-memphis-gr", "pool": {"NO": 5.335420290331967, "YES": 22907.722289647267}, "probability": 0.00011418487827160817, "p": 0.3289990248588656, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23879.306039679697, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701048739746, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222939234, "lastBetTime": 1701048735429, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The game will take place at 3:00pm PST on November 26, 2023. The Memphis Grizzlies are the home team.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " A game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " One reason to bet on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " This is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the market cost). If you like these markets, tip or tell your friends!", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-phf82EHaQ8BJwo9lg4Hybqds.png?st=2023-11-07T23%3A30%3A26Z&se=2023-11-08T01%3A30%3A26Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-07T19%3A27%3A11Z&ske=2023-11-08T19%3A27%3A11Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=Zat5B3NPLOpELxkagz3xopMKXia1PwLq%2BiKEgsUc0u8%3D", "groupSlugs": ["nba"], "textDescription": "The game will take place at 3:00pm PST on November 26, 2023. The Memphis Grizzlies are the home team.\n\n A game that does not have a winner will resolve N/A. If for some reason the game is rescheduled, this market will track the result of the rescheduled game. If a winner is declared and, more than one hour later, the NBA orders some amount of the game time to be replayed because of a mistake, a new market will be created to track the result of the replayed game.\n\n One reason to bet on this market instead of other markets that may cover the same event: I resolve markets quickly (typically within an hour of the event ending), create markets for every game, and occasionally subsidize them. Please ping if I do not resolve a market quickly.\n\n Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the game ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.\n\n This is an experiment to see if NBA markets attract enough bettors to create markets for every game (or if some teams/time slots perform well enough to justify the market cost). If you like these markets, tip or tell your friends!"}, {"id": "Dw0dfKUrUfQujWgKcGT8", "creatorId": "HxENMbrEyaVidRJrcBWdDR6u0H23", "creatorUsername": "Hedgehog", "creatorName": "\ud83e\udd94", "createdTime": 1671041800836, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSamBowman%2FOGhtqjcjdf.jpg?alt=media&token=c65a9f73-7fb7-4c0a-897f-7f42e2021c0b", "closeTime": 1704096000000, "question": "Will Baidu have an active AGI safety effort by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-baidu-have-an-active-agi-safet", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Hedgehog/will-baidu-have-an-active-agi-safet", "pool": {"NO": 192.52043890239722, "YES": 413.8368257251934}, "probability": 0.14213292322340013, "p": 0.26261577985309814, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 992.3142633557543, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705271367743, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "HxENMbrEyaVidRJrcBWdDR6u0H23", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705271367920, "lastBetTime": 1704087402815, "lastCommentTime": 1704142442498, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201cAGI safety effort\u201d can be demonstrated by either:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At least", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "catastrophic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Papers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "arXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there\u2019s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Citing typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "primary", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FLbOLIHoJ0o.png?alt=media&token=64a68eae-8453-4064-9f58-caf5312707ea", "groupSlugs": ["ai-safety", "technical-ai-safety", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "\u201cAGI safety effort\u201d can be demonstrated by either:\n\nAt least three research papers or blog posts in one year that discuss catastrophic risks (risks of harm much worse than any caused by AI systems to date, harming more than just the company and its immediate users) that are specific to human-level or superhuman AI.\n\nPapers or posts must be clearly affiliated with the institution.\n\narXiv papers with a first or last author who claims a company affiliation count, as long as there\u2019s no evidence that the company wants to distance itself from the papers.\n\nCiting typical work by authors like Nick Bostrom, Ajeya Cotra, Paul Christiano, Rohin Shah, Richard Ngo, or Eliezer Yudkowsky as part of describing the primary motivation for a project will typically suffice for the above.\n\nOne blog post, paper, tweet, or similar that clearly announces a new team focused on the issues described above, presented in a way that implies that this team will involve multiple people working over multiple years with reasonable institutional support.\n\nThis must be a technical effort to count. It should be oriented toward a technical AI/ML/CS audience, or primarily use the tools and ideas of that discipline. Joint projects involving multiple disciplines will count only if the technical AI/ML/CS-oriented component of the project would be sufficient to count on its own.\n\nWill resolve early if someone presents sufficient evidence that this is happening."}, {"id": "6MIcVOsio8ODBwznvw0R", "creatorId": "y1hb6k7txdZPV5mgyxPFApZ7nQl2", "creatorUsername": "IsaacKing", "creatorName": "Isaac King", "createdTime": 1695508663383, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FIsaacKing%2FfP-MqjWonh.jpg?alt=media&token=e21d446d-75e0-4ab8-8e7c-a7b2af67e4cc", "closeTime": 1695509859244, "question": "Will Stephen drop his coffee mug during the founder's panel?", "slug": "will-stephen-drop-his-coffee-mug-du", "url": "https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-stephen-drop-his-coffee-mug-du", "pool": {"NO": 7.453772298777039, "YES": 335.4006400772661}, "probability": 0.021740342342748475, "p": 0.4999999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 301.79705698023326, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695509859244, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695697107020, "lastBetTime": 1695509732921, "lastCommentTime": 1695697105388, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's currently balanced precariously on his knee.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRbojpr8JA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRbojpr8JA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifest"], "textDescription": "It's currently balanced precariously on his knee.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suRbojpr8JA"}, {"id": "mnk8WwfNDK0LiSn5H8d3", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1701834969046, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716834041123, "question": "Recent SEC filings show Elon Musk hopes to raise $1B for xAI. Will they be able to raise $1B or more by EOY 2024?", "slug": "according-to-recent-sec-filings-elo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/according-to-recent-sec-filings-elo", "pool": {"NO": 11591.315761856195, "YES": 549.3452466034905}, "probability": 0.9899999999999999, "p": 0.8243114349890049, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11052.39729752003, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716834041123, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716834041123, "lastBetTime": 1716832606063, "lastCommentTime": 1716832646593, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2002695/000200269523000002/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2002695/000200269523000002/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "As of Dec 5th 2023:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Total Offering Amount $1,000,000,000 USD", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Total Amount Sold $134,679,312 USD", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Total Remaining to be Sold $865,320,688 USD", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo/2a8a264852ea.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=bIjlPm5zLjZf1v8einaCQpec2I35CfW3TQfT3R9Iv97lAAKc6U%2Fo%2FKcKDKo9lAbLvshnqPI9qxenWfX6lfuJGPSVWbEU7NkzaCnjqC4GpPc0jVioLLPQPcU67VD%2BO0X3w4xQkE8Xdi7b3gqtTqu%2B1Wk7O9SomxS5xhpANd3ef%2BRfYko7HVw0%2BYcEKlsF5EouEMljgF%2B1LV4txfgFjmmHfXe5Kcc8yZd90OQ2r4rEIguc6uTbYFZ%2FRb%2BbIAVPGV1BRTT4REjbSrWbmgRm6Gm6pg2uUCel6xzEt20qD8IxHnoFoSJa2S9RU7GQ9V%2BspmAWt4kA0u7CAWt4ZB1LktwaOA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "business", "startups", "xai", "grok", "artificial-intelligence", "investing"], "textDescription": "Info: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2002695/000200269523000002/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml\n\nAs of Dec 5th 2023:\nTotal Offering Amount $1,000,000,000 USD\n\nTotal Amount Sold $134,679,312 USD\nTotal Remaining to be Sold $865,320,688 USD"}, {"id": "rWQyj7L2QgCLJN4SrApI", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1646257359270, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1651661928671, "question": "Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?", "slug": "will-at-least-three-european-countr-21cea2658771", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-at-least-three-european-countr-21cea2658771", "pool": {"NO": 445.4777276885867, "YES": 84.37740278298885}, "probability": 0.9771113341169285, "p": 0.8899383107617911, "totalLiquidity": 100.65998480225193, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2760.7816162914187, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1651661928671, "resolutionProbability": 0.9771113341169285, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1646257359270, "lastCommentTime": 1649005319112, "description": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9993/europe-to-stop-buying-gas-from-russia/\n\nClose date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "iBDvXWTlDFKZWd5cFmlh", "creatorId": "8kaVOjw6w1eEHpdoEHQ6TevXHgw2", "creatorUsername": "MikeChenSF", "creatorName": "Mike Chen", "createdTime": 1677533713840, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucr-veg201DGQzF4jqPWo9dgBl01vEy2ksiaZA4BSRo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680751141040, "question": "Will San Francisco roll back (to any degree) its boycott of 30 US states by 2023-07-31?", "slug": "will-san-francisco-roll-back-its-bo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MikeChenSF/will-san-francisco-roll-back-its-bo", "pool": {"NO": 1476.2470004845818, "YES": 22.250766122783865}, "probability": 0.9895460665428207, "p": 0.5879230841526097, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2736.946768948286, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680751141040, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680736786299, "lastBetTime": 1680736786137, "lastCommentTime": 1680735057371, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "San Francisco lawmakers are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "considering rolling back", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/sf-boycott-conservative-states-contracts-business-17781894.php?utm_source=marketing&utm_medium=copy-url-link&utm_campaign=article-share&hash=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuc2ZjaHJvbmljbGUuY29tL3NmL2FydGljbGUvc2YtYm95Y290dC1jb25zZXJ2YXRpdmUtc3RhdGVzLWNvbnRyYWN0cy1idXNpbmVzcy0xNzc4MTg5NC5waHA=&time=MTY3NzUzMzYyMTI1NQ==&rid=MGM4NzBjODEtMjVhYy00YzYxLWE1Y2QtZmI1MmQyMTEzZjY4&sharecount=OA==", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " a law that prohibits city contracts or employee travel to 30 states that passed laws limiting LGBTQ, rights, abortion, and voting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if a law rolling back the boycott (partially or fully) is enacted by 2023-07-31 11:59pm (Pacific time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 15, 5:32pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will San Francisco roll back its boycott of 30 US states by 2023-07-31?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will San Francisco roll back (to any degree) its boycott of 30 US states by 2023-07-31?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FcDxW_KeMWJ.png?alt=media&token=002e5f79-7bc4-486a-9150-320d846590b1", "groupSlugs": ["san-francisco"], "textDescription": "San Francisco lawmakers are considering rolling back a law that prohibits city contracts or employee travel to 30 states that passed laws limiting LGBTQ, rights, abortion, and voting.\n\nThis market resolves to YES if a law rolling back the boycott (partially or fully) is enacted by 2023-07-31 11:59pm (Pacific time).\n\nMar 15, 5:32pm: Will San Francisco roll back its boycott of 30 US states by 2023-07-31? \u2192 Will San Francisco roll back (to any degree) its boycott of 30 US states by 2023-07-31?"}, {"id": "uOOc0B035EMZKPttMDhm", "creatorId": "s3YhpYxOiWX1WXgaxMNZTpHN8k02", "creatorUsername": "Dennis5a87", "creatorName": "Dennis", "createdTime": 1694369696542, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7f04sabjWumSvXD60aKkzSpQP9PpUHWn66bj7e=s96-c", "closeTime": 1701854540944, "question": "Will Russia have a net gain in occupied land in Ukraine during a month, within the next year?", "slug": "will-russia-have-a-net-gain-in-occu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Dennis5a87/will-russia-have-a-net-gain-in-occu", "pool": {"NO": 3823.5860328858066, "YES": 121.56749919281128}, "probability": 0.98, "p": 0.6090560123688261, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5476.390845502121, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701854540944, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701854683756, "lastBetTime": 1701854524762, "lastCommentTime": 1701854682159, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if over the course of any month (e.g. January, April or June) within the next year, Russia will have a gained occupied land in Ukraine, more than Ukraine has liberated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If both Ukraine and Russia will win ground in different areas of the conflict, we will compare gained ground. If Russia gained more ground than it lost, this market will resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deepstatemap.live/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepstatemap.live/en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to assess wins and losses, but am open to other sources if there is a wide consensus between reports. To determine losses and gains, I will compare the first day of the month to the last. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "9fb43cf5-9c64-4964-83c2-2b4d1fdf0f46", "url": "https://deepstatemap.live/en", "image": "https://deepstatemap.live/images/meta_og.jpg", "title": "DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["russia", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine-counteroffensive"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve YES if over the course of any month (e.g. January, April or June) within the next year, Russia will have a gained occupied land in Ukraine, more than Ukraine has liberated.\n\nIf both Ukraine and Russia will win ground in different areas of the conflict, we will compare gained ground. If Russia gained more ground than it lost, this market will resolve YES. \n\nI will use https://deepstatemap.live/en to assess wins and losses, but am open to other sources if there is a wide consensus between reports. To determine losses and gains, I will compare the first day of the month to the last. \n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "tJKGFazpxrS8hQwszwgF", "creatorId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "creatorUsername": "StopPunting", "creatorName": "Stop Punting", "createdTime": 1701728936834, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStoppunting%2FU_8wwZ-g5O.jpg?alt=media&token=c92d2477-27aa-4e8b-9dd4-50d1db23bb5f", "closeTime": 1703995513487, "question": "Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - OMEGALUL of the Year?", "slug": "will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-64d6eb2bb9be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-64d6eb2bb9be", "pool": {"NO": 708.0706909330953, "YES": 47.276473576674455}, "probability": 0.95, "p": 0.5591980023513033, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 905.0876407499898, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703995513487, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703995543856, "lastBetTime": 1703995209163, "lastCommentTime": 1703995542879, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/UFTG/tda23-omegalul-of-the-year", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Other\" counts as everybody else in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting/deebb7c44cee.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=BTWh8Kf%2B7FEvygBBcqoqnGHntNzVK%2BwhbU%2FU4oBCDK%2FqSklN9KW3iYvbkCVwvmH5RCq3OKxWJzH6tvKSQt8b33qr2wRfAotexi%2Fl0ejlEx%2FMtzheeNffFkthDW5qxodfRmEM3yRfOatzQBN%2BGpHe5h0Utrw5aVZAhuoQDss2uTsWzamjPM15FrbI5a2ZyoTHRQRy910LHAdHbWah9hGOvOhNkhKS6KpHlbr4w3i4CD25eBy5ULRgNjf%2B6mHoHGJ6Kqk%2F0ysmOXMFzyNbFACQfQRQN6RwACEnPFpep6PlJOsyOVJ4z0AcQLSEf9yJURueyt6Qq1iaE4WjPuFsdZzc6g%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["debate", "the-destiny-awards-2023", "destinygg", "the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/UFTG/tda23-omegalul-of-the-year)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.\n\nThis will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".\n\n\"Other\" counts as everybody else in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)\n\nUsing Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046\n\nPlease no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).\n\nI will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets."}, {"id": "JmvdRFcSLb2xhALlixBC", "creatorId": "UOU0OiRQ7VMrRdDsrG9P7eyAKak1", "creatorUsername": "apetresc", "creatorName": "Adrian Petrescu", "createdTime": 1690877055495, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbdAPaziJ7ZFfwat2TUezvgcl2EnS0W1gDSDAVj=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704038340000, "question": "Will Instagram release an official native iPad app in 2023?", "slug": "will-instagram-release-an-official", "url": "https://manifold.markets/apetresc/will-instagram-release-an-official", "pool": {"NO": 146.88087938540005, "YES": 1100.5217440838103}, "probability": 0.027686453585626488, "p": 0.17583606727910694, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 929.462695590154, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704406990952, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "UOU0OiRQ7VMrRdDsrG9P7eyAKak1", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704406991158, "lastBetTime": 1704037085510, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instagram has famously held out on supporting the iPad with a native app. Although the iPhone app can run on the iPad with the 2x zoom feature, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "instagram.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://instagram.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a \"progressive web app\" by some measures, there is currently no native-to-iPad Instagram application released by Meta.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the iPad App Store contains a native iPad app for Instagram (not Threads), published by Meta or an official subsidiary.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some additional background: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://9to5mac.com/2023/01/01/instagram-make-an-ipad-app/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://9to5mac.com/2023/01/01/instagram-make-an-ipad-app/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F5NshQbLMy2.webp?alt=media&token=dff6ccbc-a56b-4520-83bf-b3f9c08ab6e9", "groupSlugs": ["meta-facebook", "apple", "technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Instagram has famously held out on supporting the iPad with a native app. Although the iPhone app can run on the iPad with the 2x zoom feature, and instagram.com is a \"progressive web app\" by some measures, there is currently no native-to-iPad Instagram application released by Meta.\n\n\nThis market resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the iPad App Store contains a native iPad app for Instagram (not Threads), published by Meta or an official subsidiary.\n\nSome additional background: https://9to5mac.com/2023/01/01/instagram-make-an-ipad-app/"}, {"id": "nKWH9vEfqkX2cSDEyZwK", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1701418940819, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1701484886506, "question": "Will the Columbus Blue Jackets score more than the San Jose Sharks on December 1?", "slug": "will-the-columbus-blue-jackets-scor", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-columbus-blue-jackets-scor", "pool": {"NO": 52.82260145585917, "YES": 224.04467500285847}, "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "p": 0.5146487955383854, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 360.82815674994015, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701484886506, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710208053524, "lastBetTime": 1701484831490, "lastCommentTime": 1701484874585, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New Jersey Devils vs San Jose Sharks @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=devils+vs+sharks", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ottawa Senators vs Columbus Blue Jackets @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=senators+vs+blue+jackets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if the Columbus Blue Jackets score more goals in their game against Ottawa Senators than San Jose Sharks do against the New Jersey Devils.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FQSk9UelpEf.png?alt=media&token=b57abeb1-a7aa-4db3-a631-6d078d84b2df", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts/9c5dd0912184.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=WPMH66HbpUxLsg1G%2F1stUVTrkQ7GY%2BiSLpJ5QlIict3meb7ATXanMGt5QYsA%2FpDmZJbHgVYjt%2BJtnTW%2BVkVZccE90Yvb9toCHxk7FilwWiB4R8XT76GCEfENbVPzvkqpF4QJOCGuHnYkmml7DG8A%2FeICGfO9CWwuYI2QE2veYd95jP3r9pnsDRukjFke34DoHpCTOlCcUizmDZGo9fj4tAM1pwAEkhoMlzFB7rVlS4ElHAqmeyRBJIDrqo%2FFhUEdRiUjhaeughdSDrxYePOkAhAFXza%2FTpNKrIlxcUnZ%2F2K4XkAJxz%2Fri2rvOVX9hBhhOftuPLZC1RtA6Ph6TKxVtg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "hockey", "nhl", "san-jose-sharks-aacce26b6cd7", "columbus-blue-jackets"], "textDescription": "New Jersey Devils vs San Jose Sharks @6pm CST\n\nOttawa Senators vs Columbus Blue Jackets @6pm CST\n\nResolves Yes if the Columbus Blue Jackets score more goals in their game against Ottawa Senators than San Jose Sharks do against the New Jersey Devils.\n\nResolves No otherwise.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "JBAg2jyTHmFrSxH9TEzD", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1692003584299, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1692119520000, "question": "Will AA flight 412 from Washington to Charlotte on 2023-08-16 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-aa-flight-412-from-washington", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-aa-flight-412-from-washington", "pool": {"NO": 234.22688124991384, "YES": 153.79914939775014}, "probability": 0.9139401891407182, "p": 0.8745804648614769, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 125, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692207655105, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692115237129, "lastBetTime": 1692115236968, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/99zh7djv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/99zh7djv", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/99zh7djv"}, {"id": "J7VnP7TA1YgRyFu360iP", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1686248732922, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1704041743056, "question": "Will Zvi Mowshowitz be a guest on the Lex Fridman podcast before the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-zvi-mowshowitz-be-a-guest-on-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-zvi-mowshowitz-be-a-guest-on-t", "pool": {"NO": 172.39205227134835, "YES": 4528.755409113833}, "probability": 0.015375784171660382, "p": 0.2908962722922022, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5185.2064148543395, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704041743056, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710208076750, "lastBetTime": 1704041704564, "lastCommentTime": 1704041716282, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/TheZvi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/TheZvi", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thezvi.wordpress.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thezvi.wordpress.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on when the podcast is released, not when it is recorded. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fy8mpjnsEVr.png?alt=media&token=e5a9d8fc-f7dd-43bb-82f4-61f185ae1d76", "groupSlugs": ["lex-fridman", "podcasts", "zvi-mowshowitz"], "textDescription": "https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman\n\nhttps://twitter.com/TheZvi\n\nhttps://thezvi.wordpress.com/\n\nResolves based on when the podcast is released, not when it is recorded. \n\n"}, {"id": "5JdRIt6ZsRYQxF9oKwjY", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700266239275, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700496000000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher november 20th than the close of november 17th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-9dfd19b7cd0a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-2-9dfd19b7cd0a", "pool": {"NO": 489.6041937902209, "YES": 91.95339556781707}, "probability": 0.9381406976853671, "p": 0.7401449420352963, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1094.3713452242555, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700501017580, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700501020660, "lastBetTime": 1700495909988, "lastCommentTime": 1700500992728, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMrG54UF2Y5.png?alt=media&token=7b1e497b-614b-4cd4-b6e1-a5ada550018f", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "sccsq4", "stocks"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "IPtxpxl5dtUV6G8EHIXK", "creatorId": "G69hehYciGO29TdV2kc5XISHNnG3", "creatorUsername": "ThomasAskwhoAskew", "creatorName": "Thomas \u201cAskwho\u201d Askew", "createdTime": 1679517818899, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu31mpyVJaQQebnp_IvQB01BP38CgRXvoY8ouzoFJKs=s96-c", "closeTime": 1686339498927, "question": "Will Boris Johnson Be Found in Contempt of Parliament by the Privileges Committee for Misleading MPs?", "slug": "will-boris-johnson-be-found-in-cont", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ThomasAskwhoAskew/will-boris-johnson-be-found-in-cont", "pool": {"NO": 765.1637099996314, "YES": 652.7698683787238}, "probability": 0.7216981366132894, "p": 0.6886971578073947, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 182.09256508266117, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686339511986, "resolutionProbability": 0.72, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685534571303, "lastBetTime": 1685185056825, "lastCommentTime": 1685534568164, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On April 21, 2022, the House of Commons approved a motion, introduced by the Labour Party leader, to investigate whether then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson misled Parliament regarding the 'partygate' allegations. The Commons Privileges Committee is now examining if Johnson's statements in the Commons about alleged lockdown rule violations in Downing Street were misleading and, if so, whether they constituted contempt of Parliament.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The committee's inquiry, as authorized by the motion, is specifically investigating:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Whether the Commons was misled by Johnson's statements;", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Commons was misled, whether this constituted contempt of Parliament (i.e., if the functioning of the Commons was impeded by the misleading information); and", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the Commons was misled, the severity of the potential contempt.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Upon concluding its investigation, the Privileges Committee will determine if Boris Johnson misled Parliament and, if so, whether this constituted contempt. If deemed appropriate, the committee will recommend sanctions for Johnson. The findings and recommendations will be reported to the House of Commons.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Privileges Committee reports to the House of Commons that Boris Johnson was in contempt of Parliament.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FIHFx1q1fCm.png?alt=media&token=8b6f4ccc-acf1-4dce-8529-2e4dcccbbec3", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics"], "textDescription": "On April 21, 2022, the House of Commons approved a motion, introduced by the Labour Party leader, to investigate whether then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson misled Parliament regarding the 'partygate' allegations. The Commons Privileges Committee is now examining if Johnson's statements in the Commons about alleged lockdown rule violations in Downing Street were misleading and, if so, whether they constituted contempt of Parliament.\n\nThe committee's inquiry, as authorized by the motion, is specifically investigating:\n\nWhether the Commons was misled by Johnson's statements;\n\nIf the Commons was misled, whether this constituted contempt of Parliament (i.e., if the functioning of the Commons was impeded by the misleading information); and\n\nIf the Commons was misled, the severity of the potential contempt.\n\nUpon concluding its investigation, the Privileges Committee will determine if Boris Johnson misled Parliament and, if so, whether this constituted contempt. If deemed appropriate, the committee will recommend sanctions for Johnson. The findings and recommendations will be reported to the House of Commons.\n\nThis market will resolve as \"Yes\" if the Privileges Committee reports to the House of Commons that Boris Johnson was in contempt of Parliament."}, {"id": "JDbyPj5HG0X4V47vcNlY", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1693928260573, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694377085977, "question": "Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans in their Week 1 matchup in the 2023 NFL season?", "slug": "will-the-baltimore-ravens-beat-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-baltimore-ravens-beat-the", "pool": {"NO": 5118.172366550409, "YES": 110.88590295085676}, "probability": 0.9937522464690097, "p": 0.7750788795250444, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5960.281468249359, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694377099211, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694376418642, "lastBetTime": 1694376418526, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's the start of a new NFL season, and we begin the first Sunday with a loaded up Ravens squad taking on the Texans with two top-three draft picks in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. Can the Ravens start the season strong, or will the Texans get Win #1 of this new rendition?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Ravens win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Texans win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["nfl"], "textDescription": "It's the start of a new NFL season, and we begin the first Sunday with a loaded up Ravens squad taking on the Texans with two top-three draft picks in CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. Can the Ravens start the season strong, or will the Texans get Win #1 of this new rendition?\n\nYes - Ravens win\n\nNo - Texans win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets cancelled (Like Bengals-Bills last season)"}, {"id": "2tgD2Y0egEq2Bh2xdX9P", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1694368926320, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1694905265170, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Norhtwestern defeat Duke?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-norhtwestern-defea", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-norhtwestern-defea", "pool": {"NO": 64.58723264420674, "YES": 2383.5023466909993}, "probability": 0.0072366815852809, "p": 0.21198192366232976, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4196.8076538648675, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694905265170, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694904160023, "lastBetTime": 1694904159523, "lastCommentTime": 1694897613728, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 16, 2023 - 3:30 PM EDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "north-carolina", "northwestern-university", "college-football", "duke-university", "acc", "big-ten"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 16, 2023 - 3:30 PM EDT\n\nWallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC"}, {"id": "Dn8uqHDzomoVN4pfTye7", "creatorId": "4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2", "creatorUsername": "GustavoMafra", "creatorName": "Gustavo Mafra", "createdTime": 1687230931913, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGustavoMafra%2FTPftSeT7dB.jpg?alt=media&token=ead35656-54d8-46f1-a8e3-8d7a4f86a32e", "closeTime": 1704077940000, "question": "Will Killers of the Flower Moon be rated at least 8.5 in IMDB at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-killers-of-the-flower-moon-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-killers-of-the-flower-moon-be", "pool": {"NO": 78.3261864175356, "YES": 2104.866897373115}, "probability": 0.009414824460676739, "p": 0.2034475396982106, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3046.547228702543, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704085703031, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704085703377, "lastBetTime": 1704076151963, "lastCommentTime": 1696607675365, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["movies", "television-film", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5537002"}, {"id": "KuZdOHheiLUkhOTXsQya", "creatorId": "MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2", "creatorUsername": "ByrneHobart", "creatorName": "Byrne Hobart", "createdTime": 1697492729618, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJyWRUkVKow5CE1qtRKVDnXQoCE5tuz9y0VWxPCn=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704175140000, "question": "Will the US or a European country impose sanctions or other financial penalties on Qatar over supporting Hamas?", "slug": "will-the-us-or-a-european-country-i", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ByrneHobart/will-the-us-or-a-european-country-i", "pool": {"NO": 162.08614268688325, "YES": 38530.936632136174}, "probability": 0.0021485045079446107, "p": 0.3385542480089585, "totalLiquidity": 1080, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 45564.53715459751, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704204820571, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "MWW2zdtdTcVPBIcmJMWpNwKTikp2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704204820951, "lastBetTime": 1704149140216, "lastCommentTime": 1698106507801, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Through the end of 2023, will the US or a major European economy (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain) either a) impose sanctions on Qatar, members of the Qatari government, or employees of state-owned Qatari companies in response to Qatar's financial support for Hamas, or b) announce a reduction in gas imports from Qatar, citing the situation in Gaza as a cause?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Note, I am happy to clarify the resolution criteria if anything is unclear. If you have a scenario in mind that you think would ambiguously satisfy these criteria, please comment before betting and I'll adjust the criteria.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["middle-east", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Through the end of 2023, will the US or a major European economy (France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain) either a) impose sanctions on Qatar, members of the Qatari government, or employees of state-owned Qatari companies in response to Qatar's financial support for Hamas, or b) announce a reduction in gas imports from Qatar, citing the situation in Gaza as a cause?\n\n(Note, I am happy to clarify the resolution criteria if anything is unclear. If you have a scenario in mind that you think would ambiguously satisfy these criteria, please comment before betting and I'll adjust the criteria.)"}, {"id": "yrhOcdrhjhfU4JNIwqyq", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1703790631018, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1706286423504, "question": "Will \"Mean Girls\" (2024) have >65% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes 2 weeks after release?", "slug": "will-mean-girls-2024-have-65-critic", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-mean-girls-2024-have-65-critic", "pool": {"NO": 11892.816499028339, "YES": 214.35310694373948}, "probability": 0.9948729727853957, "p": 0.777650012869491, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15871.32336385095, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706286423504, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706286424016, "lastBetTime": 1706286382606, "lastCommentTime": 1706286402303, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Mean Girls\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use the \"Tomatometer\" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "original Mean Girls ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "has a Tomatometer score of 84%, similar to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recent Wonka musical ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wonka", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "with 83%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After 2 weeks post-release, I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of January 26th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "exactly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the \"RT score as of a specific time\", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on \"the score I see when I check RT on that day\").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDargQVQf1Y.jpg?alt=media&token=b75f9f0e-2694-4245-8730-a1df0d08e5f2", "title": null}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F245bdf43a32a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "movies", "hollywood", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment", "boxoffice"], "textDescription": "\"Mean Girls\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024\n\nI will use the \"Tomatometer\" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.\n\nFor reference, the original Mean Girls has a Tomatometer score of 84%, similar to the recent Wonka musical with 83%.\n\nAfter 2 weeks post-release, I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of January 26th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise exactly when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the \"RT score as of a specific time\", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on \"the score I see when I check RT on that day\").\n\nI may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).\n\nIf any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "pKjkLXxCS0N3DIaCWpMm", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1696641657894, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1696719600000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 7 than it closed on October 6?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-7", "pool": {"NO": 91.12214195263202, "YES": 642.507749900229}, "probability": 0.06590401190573786, "p": 0.332211025196144, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 863.6473600805507, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696733141448, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696733139158, "lastBetTime": 1696719331973, "lastCommentTime": 1696733138416, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5256", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "cf657d24-8c0f-4d67-80c4-2169d3846c85", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 4 than it closed on October 3?bacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5256\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "KYFFG3mrvdbj7CKExCku", "creatorId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "creatorUsername": "VictorLevoso", "creatorName": "Victor Levoso", "createdTime": 1665094886451, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FVictorLevoso%2Funknown.png?alt=media&token=7a590ded-36e7-468c-b1b8-eaf45666b429", "closeTime": 1704096000000, "question": "By 2024 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Based on Vincent Luczkow's 2029 market)", "slug": "by-2024-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/VictorLevoso/by-2024-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc", "pool": {"NO": 559.973678044277, "YES": 3087.8249416180956}, "probability": 0.07537124529559716, "p": 0.310103808841692, "totalLiquidity": 980, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13749.81591767804, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704130974298, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "51Wov1rCezNY5JHUuRcxdToLE872", "uniqueBettorCount": 84, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704133840514, "lastBetTime": 1703347064929, "lastCommentTime": 1704133839881, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vicent's market resolve yes before January 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If for some reason Vicent's market resolves in a way that is obviously wrong(for example if he resolves by accident) or he is unable to resolve the market then I'll use my own judgment.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technical-ai-timelines", "ai", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will Vicent's market resolve yes before January 2024?\nIf for some reason Vicent's market resolves in a way that is obviously wrong(for example if he resolves by accident) or he is unable to resolve the market then I'll use my own judgment.\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc)"}, {"id": "IQjvK2if6I119da4o5Hl", "creatorId": "5WcZx8CR8aOdMI0198AW1IS5OeD2", "creatorUsername": "AshiFriedberg", "creatorName": "Ashi Friedberg", "createdTime": 1701802059364, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaR5WaWLVfvUr_4oog3rTayIpCRDoTSgQgdsR5p=s96-c", "closeTime": 1712005140000, "question": "Will any studies confirm the new theory of Classical Gravity?", "slug": "will-any-studies-confirm-the-new-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AshiFriedberg/will-any-studies-confirm-the-new-th", "pool": {"NO": 214.61874763789564, "YES": 1076.9346878339672}, "probability": 0.030859804599420608, "p": 0.13776910990437152, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 945.915441805184, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715145777413, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712005140000, "lastBetTime": 1712000004243, "lastCommentTime": 1715027646081, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The origina", "type": "text"}, {"text": "l paper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.03116.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to", "type": "text"}, {"text": " this", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://phys.org/news/2023-12-theory-einstein-gravity-quantum-mechanics.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " article by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "phys.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://phys.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"A radical theory that consistently unifies gravity and quantum mechanics while preserving Einstein's classical concept of spacetime has been announced in two papers published simultaneously by UCL (University College London) physicists.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Modern physics is founded upon two pillars: quantum theory on the one hand, which governs the smallest particles in the universe, and Einstein's theory of general relativity on the other, which explains gravity through the bending of spacetime. But these two theories are in contradiction with each other and a reconciliation has remained elusive for over a century.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The prevailing assumption has been that Einstein's theory of gravity must be modified, or \"quantized,\" in order to fit within quantum theory. This is the approach of two leading candidates for a quantum theory of gravity, string theory and loop quantum gravity.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But a new theory, developed by Professor Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL Physics & Astronomy) and laid out in a paper in Physical Review X, challenges that consensus and takes an alternative approach by suggesting that spacetime may be classical\u2014that is, not governed by quantum theory at all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Instead of modifying spacetime, the theory\u2014dubbed a \"postquantum theory of classical gravity\"\u2014modifies quantum theory and predicts an intrinsic breakdown in predictability that is mediated by spacetime itself. This results in random and violent fluctuations in spacetime that are larger than envisaged under quantum theory, rendering the apparent weight of objects unpredictable if measured precisely enough.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any peer reviewed paper about an experiment which claims to confirm this theory will be considered a confirmation", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The study must be published by April 1st 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EDIT: Hacker news ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "link", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38815590", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AshiFriedberg/1fe9762fd5f4.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=hojVTbzjJRj8mneZWYC0kNvs1ezYcAn1nMKhqL06wCU0v%2BCnuB7LTHTHkcghSnKAGI7FjsW30bF8jktImOTaU2pJAFlG7ZhcUiV0Hl%2BFxQu22hlPa7uJSFH5uhIfhnYxcNKp8UsmbbBpumTA%2B6PlGLEFEUSHckYnyRSWRnpLqbOe4T3ghgnjfDf6FKlRFoyeVbzkCfpjg%2FU2FrzIYzb2au%2Boibl4HsydWLcWq5UN2XQ2aSaelXgOUvowez2LQd3ZowyNfotyt6bAZKzW9RWdTvyG3Vei1PUmMF6DmyxD%2F1%2BJJnV%2FNzhSRUpmByKZkL8AO%2FC8%2FoKSjOsA5MhnDgWyGg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["physics-a6878c3ad095", "science-default", "physics", "particle-physics"], "textDescription": "The original paper\n\nAccording to this article by phys.org:\n\n\"A radical theory that consistently unifies gravity and quantum mechanics while preserving Einstein's classical concept of spacetime has been announced in two papers published simultaneously by UCL (University College London) physicists.\n\nModern physics is founded upon two pillars: quantum theory on the one hand, which governs the smallest particles in the universe, and Einstein's theory of general relativity on the other, which explains gravity through the bending of spacetime. But these two theories are in contradiction with each other and a reconciliation has remained elusive for over a century.\n\nThe prevailing assumption has been that Einstein's theory of gravity must be modified, or \"quantized,\" in order to fit within quantum theory. This is the approach of two leading candidates for a quantum theory of gravity, string theory and loop quantum gravity.\n\nBut a new theory, developed by Professor Jonathan Oppenheim (UCL Physics & Astronomy) and laid out in a paper in Physical Review X, challenges that consensus and takes an alternative approach by suggesting that spacetime may be classical\u2014that is, not governed by quantum theory at all.\n\nInstead of modifying spacetime, the theory\u2014dubbed a \"postquantum theory of classical gravity\"\u2014modifies quantum theory and predicts an intrinsic breakdown in predictability that is mediated by spacetime itself. This results in random and violent fluctuations in spacetime that are larger than envisaged under quantum theory, rendering the apparent weight of objects unpredictable if measured precisely enough.\"\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nAny peer reviewed paper about an experiment which claims to confirm this theory will be considered a confirmation\n\nThe study must be published by April 1st 2024\n\nEDIT: Hacker news link"}, {"id": "wemHjTzTO2EorTBbwkNU", "creatorId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "creatorUsername": "egroj", "creatorName": "JAAM", "createdTime": 1669743921797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjorge%2F6eta_wBPT5.png?alt=media&token=2d5f9149-6e77-4307-83f7-a770bebe9686", "closeTime": 1670015100000, "question": "Will \"USA vs Iran\" be the most popular match (market) of the group stage of the 2022 FIFA World Cup?", "slug": "will-usa-vs-iran-be-the-most-popula", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-usa-vs-iran-be-the-most-popula", "pool": {"NO": 405.99999999999994, "YES": 77.7418088800905}, "probability": 0.9418691771309096, "p": 0.7562465868720656, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 276, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1670017816551, "resolutionProbability": 0.9418691771309097, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670017029667, "lastBetTime": 1670000366508, "lastCommentTime": 1670017011988, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I made markets for every single game of the group stage. Resolves YES if among those markets, the market below has the largest number of traders at the end of the group stage.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there are multiple markets with the largest number of traders, it resolves to PROB with equal probability for each one of those markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "USA vs Iran market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-the-usa-win-against-iran-at-th", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FeZ0xS1GT-P.png?alt=media&token=f16b1c36-3bbe-414b-ab22-9870745ce4ba", "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "I made markets for every single game of the group stage. Resolves YES if among those markets, the market below has the largest number of traders at the end of the group stage.\n\nIf there are multiple markets with the largest number of traders, it resolves to PROB with equal probability for each one of those markets.\n\nUSA vs Iran market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-the-usa-win-against-iran-at-th)"}, {"id": "gAcT2UkiSPKCSqmKFHgO", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1672771601149, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1673070241079, "question": "Will Jim Jordan be next Speaker of the House?", "slug": "will-jim-jordan-be-next-speaker-of", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-jim-jordan-be-next-speaker-of", "pool": {"NO": 228.95319550672963, "YES": 6133.40368101347}, "probability": 0.00518016707072276, "p": 0.12241715870347615, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10718.493762979178, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1673070241079, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1673070106661, "lastBetTime": 1673070106458, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Jim Jordan is elected the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fve8-qY7L07.png?alt=media&token=84f8db79-5a8c-4e99-9cef-5143139cce1b", "groupSlugs": ["118th-congress", "us-politics", "speaker-of-the-house-election"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Jim Jordan is elected the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, otherwise NO.\n\nFine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)"}, {"id": "k4hz8D7NElcyzgN2wn7H", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1682351641290, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1685823600996, "question": "Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of November 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc", "pool": {"NO": 26131.748008245508, "YES": 363.524961236295}, "probability": 0.9986570782916627, "p": 0.9118556225399344, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 31447.406950301563, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685823600996, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 30, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685823591827, "lastBetTime": 1685823591710, "lastCommentTime": 1685816115135, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Experts and government sources agree that the \"x date\" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTxCOBPwVZ8nQ8WC0hsM", "label": "/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3szs86zpyB4QQY4zzP2S", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Y9mpPth1JfCkwGsF2vqv", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "oXoSAEJeTXRMz1rQ5jyG", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "XiHhlCfjZZoczUwXmfMS", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0bqpJ0HTg15PsB4dX2I2", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "k4hz8D7NElcyzgN2wn7H", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of November, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FSlkJqBBy-5.png?alt=media&token=48691c4e-b238-44e7-9c4d-8215e764fdea", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "finance", "us-politics", "economics-default", "mint-the-coin", "debt-ceiling"], "textDescription": "Experts and government sources agree that the \"x date\" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.\n\nAt the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised \n\nThis is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc \n\nIf the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.\n\nIf the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.\n\nIf the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of November, this market resolves to YES."}, {"id": "nyTNvTExd4RWZzgMUSX0", "creatorId": "CEov7GGWQBb7VTM4JUWhAQaQKNh2", "creatorUsername": "awse", "creatorName": "awse", "createdTime": 1692314018759, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWestin%2FkjIRlOA8qO.jpeg?alt=media&token=3b657efd-c7d6-4eac-a6c0-3a381b0f4e3b", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Ethan Klein (h3h3) announce another reoccurring podcast/web show before the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-ethan-klein-h3h3-announce-anot", "url": "https://manifold.markets/awse/will-ethan-klein-h3h3-announce-anot", "pool": {"NO": 66.96222426705444, "YES": 935.4525539415146}, "probability": 0.043317745614419007, "p": 0.38745868970492997, "totalLiquidity": 280, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2075.9246262329107, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704088508657, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "CEov7GGWQBb7VTM4JUWhAQaQKNh2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206985856, "lastBetTime": 1703925993009, "lastCommentTime": 1696502724090, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve \"Yes\" if any new web show or podcast is announced under the h3h3 umbrella, whether Ethan Klein is included in the show or not. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Limited edition, one-off episodes do not count towards a Yes result. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current shows include", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "H3 Podcast", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Off The Rails", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After Dark", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See You Next Tuesday ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Leftovers", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkIA1sP4kZb.webp?alt=media&token=dab2b4ac-3ed4-4810-b1f8-e40f761dc229", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "culture-default", "internet", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "youtube", "podcasts"], "textDescription": "Will resolve \"Yes\" if any new web show or podcast is announced under the h3h3 umbrella, whether Ethan Klein is included in the show or not. \n\nLimited edition, one-off episodes do not count towards a Yes result. \n\nCurrent shows include\n\nH3 Podcast\n\nOff The Rails\n\nAfter Dark\n\nSee You Next Tuesday \n\nLeftovers"}, {"id": "XXJ2KJDOFEt1PSxft2DF", "creatorId": "9il5Z8Wrd5Y3LZvsLbQqC8Tdy1O2", "creatorUsername": "PS", "creatorName": "PS", "createdTime": 1695128987717, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPS%2Fx9RqFWJw8E.jpg?alt=media&token=edcfea77-2b03-43c2-adb4-29bed7995530", "closeTime": 1697543271644, "question": "Will Xi and Putin meet in person in October 2023?", "slug": "will-xi-and-putin-meet-in-person-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PS/will-xi-and-putin-meet-in-person-in", "pool": {"NO": 2720.172405472655, "YES": 261.2461788383353}, "probability": 0.9780321128743541, "p": 0.8104556258266034, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5526.251734945588, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697543271644, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697549805700, "lastBetTime": 1697531916733, "lastCommentTime": 1697549803828, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "9bb5e205-1375-44da-9971-9329d6d39294", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-xi-meet-beijing-october-russia-says-2023-09-19/", "image": "https://www.reuters.com/resizer/dknS7UqOm18BTI2ZRdxPpIww4xM=/1200x628/smart/filters:quality(80)/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/PVLNJSSTORPNHPBJMMFM6KG3OI.jpg", "title": "Putin and Xi to meet in Beijing in October, Russia says", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "President Vladimir Putin will meet China's Xi Jinping for talks in Beijing in October, Russia said on Tuesday, Putin's first known trip abroad since an arrest warrant was issued against him over the deportation of children from Ukraine.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/VAfc3f/will-putin-and-xi-conduct-an-in-per", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["russia", "who-does-xi-think-he-is", "vladimir-putin", "china", "xi-jinping"], "textDescription": "[link preview]See also: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/VAfc3f/will-putin-and-xi-conduct-an-in-per)"}, {"id": "nf1rJRcLx3d7qzBRs3tD", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1683054806884, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1702007330477, "question": "Will 'The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom' win any awards at The Game Awards 2023?", "slug": "will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-ea3647fa31bb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-ea3647fa31bb", "pool": {"NO": 28184.778049795354, "YES": 44.788671702030115}, "probability": 0.9995724425360226, "p": 0.7879165124112305, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28385.073163032754, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702007330477, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702007322155, "lastBetTime": 1702007322029, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A win in any category on the night would allow this to resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCc6wwLxKoS.png?alt=media&token=657736e9-7705-495a-aa7e-42650fff200f", "groupSlugs": ["the-game-awards-2023", "the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-the-ki", "the-legend-of-zelda", "nintendo"], "textDescription": "A win in any category on the night would allow this to resolve YES.\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards"}, {"id": "WnHLIhIZu8PHNokzdBdV", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1694582048650, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1697091601637, "question": "Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 12th October show positive growth?", "slug": "will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-38884c5c2672", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-38884c5c2672", "pool": {"NO": 66791.68270781031, "YES": 10.72331155379652}, "probability": 0.9998657118590105, "p": 0.5445005997160683, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 67507.25180282736, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697091601637, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222636698, "lastBetTime": 1697091589956, "lastCommentTime": 1697091564722, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 12th October..", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (August in this case). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this reading show positive growth?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "f1XHEVMh0D8ILKftBLSY", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "lnTMErzvaTKwMeEmW1Ux", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-b6da6df2bc61"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "LPBk3sSdbzGuhRC7GJNu", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-4d2aed160dd9"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "business", "uk-politics", "uk", "gdp", "uk-economic-data"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 12th October..\n\nThis is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (August in this case). \n\nWill this reading show positive growth?\n\nResolution notes:\n\nA reading of 0.0% resolves to NO\n\nThis market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-b6da6df2bc61 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-4d2aed160dd9 "}, {"id": "Iyc46leMPUx9CZJ3YbyB", "creatorId": "ElTd9ncvmfbX9HdIm1khfX2lBq13", "creatorUsername": "NickAllen", "creatorName": "Nick Allen", "createdTime": 1677118487091, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickAllen%2Fdomg0lHxgK.12?alt=media&token=852e8060-987e-4aaf-a86c-45d7a4b96bd1", "closeTime": 1698177397536, "question": "Will the Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index set a new all-time high in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-caseshiller-us-national-ho", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NickAllen/will-the-caseshiller-us-national-ho", "pool": {"NO": 3145.191568658192, "YES": 29.23009397843566}, "probability": 0.9874874040425842, "p": 0.4231139193648204, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5288.281869988283, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698177397536, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697659729392, "lastBetTime": 1697659729254, "lastCommentTime": 1697287395526, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "All time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 308.366 or higher, this question resolves \"Yes\". Otherwise \"No\". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If no reading has resulted in a \"Yes\" resolution then the question will resolve \"No\" after the Dec '23 reading is reported around March '24. Betting will close EOY '23.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5jdE3pOFwb.png?alt=media&token=40e942a5-851a-43b8-8c7a-0806fca4d79d", "textDescription": "As measured by the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA\n\nAll time high for these purposes is the June '22 reading of 308.365. If at any time a 2023 reading returns at 308.366 or higher, this question resolves \"Yes\". Otherwise \"No\". \n\nIf no reading has resulted in a \"Yes\" resolution then the question will resolve \"No\" after the Dec '23 reading is reported around March '24. Betting will close EOY '23."}, {"id": "wcn3YzG3oMTKMNYQnLH6", "creatorId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "creatorUsername": "admissions", "creatorName": "lukres", "createdTime": 1710670822330, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flukres%2Fj1m8DGNy5T.12?alt=media&token=fc58ce31-3de5-4d8d-bf45-abb061ee29a2", "closeTime": 1710748817640, "question": "Will a notable person die on March 18th, 2024?", "slug": "will-a-notable-person-die-on-march", "url": "https://manifold.markets/admissions/will-a-notable-person-die-on-march", "pool": {"NO": 10774.967275757608, "YES": 63.578784642506434}, "probability": 0.9987364942046253, "p": 0.82345014432252, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11180.713007096736, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710748817640, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "cWcPyhxrIQa4OCGuWtlcCHadzZH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710748875305, "lastBetTime": 1710748772459, "lastCommentTime": 1710748861185, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For simplicity, notable person = person with a Wikipedia page existing before March 18th and whose date of death is reliably reported by the end of March 18th, PST. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["longevity", "wikipedia", "celebrities", "death-markets"], "textDescription": "For simplicity, notable person = person with a Wikipedia page existing before March 18th and whose date of death is reliably reported by the end of March 18th, PST. "}, {"id": "60xem6W8SpiQZ0weoYgP", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1674681277601, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will Mikhail Mishustin stay the Prime Minister of Russia through 2023?", "slug": "will-mikhail-mishustin-stay-the-pri", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-mikhail-mishustin-stay-the-pri", "pool": {"NO": 1524.9733387380957, "YES": 261.13315019158443}, "probability": 0.9669642853586093, "p": 0.833670925521051, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1744.158056158855, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704198592323, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704198592663, "lastBetTime": 1702661358053, "lastCommentTime": 1704198568466, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mikhail Vladimirovich Mishustin", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (born 3 March 1966) is a Russian politician and economist serving as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "prime minister of Russia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_minister_of_Russia", "class": "mw-redirect", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " since 16 January 2020. He previously served as the director of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Federal Taxation Service", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Taxation_Service", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " from 2010 to 2020.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfa", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/flag-russia/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9GcAWJg3xx.png?alt=media&token=c592b2c9-83a5-41ba-8f15-93987d6681de", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u27a1\ufe0f check my ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomek's Specials", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/tomeks-specials", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "! \ud83d\ude0e", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["leaders", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Mikhail Vladimirovich Mishustin (born 3 March 1966) is a Russian politician and economist serving as the prime minister of Russia since 16 January 2020. He previously served as the director of the Federal Taxation Service from 2010 to 2020.\n\n\ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddfa\n\n[image]\n---\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f check my Tomek's Specials! \ud83d\ude0e"}, {"id": "hK1QPfK1xZqKT4ApiTYZ", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1688924051968, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1705790054647, "question": "Will Germany reduce Elterngeld for >150.000\u20ac incomes?", "slug": "will-germany-reduce-elterngeld-for", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-germany-reduce-elterngeld-for", "pool": {"NO": 361.7111893066017, "YES": 126.96064690017202}, "probability": 0.8529073206964534, "p": 0.6705379501897968, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 309.0790843101554, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705790054647, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705790055129, "lastBetTime": 1703337523667, "lastCommentTime": 1705790046731, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Via Reuters", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-eyes-slashing-parental-leave-allowance-higher-earners-budget-tightens-2023-07-05/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To meet the finance ministry's 2024 budget plan, the family ministry said it had proposed halving the annual income limit for couples eligible to receive parental leave compensation to 150,000 euros ($163,215.00) from 300,000 euros previously.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "petition to NOT do that", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.change.org/p/nein-zur-elterngeld-k%C3%BCrzung", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is quite popular.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if before 2025 this change for parental allowence (german Elterngeld) takes effect. Reducing the compensation is also ok, if it also affects the high income couples.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it takes effect later than 2024 or not at all.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["german-politics", "germany", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Via Reuters:\n\nTo meet the finance ministry's 2024 budget plan, the family ministry said it had proposed halving the annual income limit for couples eligible to receive parental leave compensation to 150,000 euros ($163,215.00) from 300,000 euros previously.\n\nA petition to NOT do that is quite popular.\n\nResolves YES if before 2025 this change for parental allowence (german Elterngeld) takes effect. Reducing the compensation is also ok, if it also affects the high income couples.\n\nResolves NO if it takes effect later than 2024 or not at all."}, {"id": "3vNpZ7DS4vMVvJKKzGsh", "creatorId": "tL0ppFfrhjT5RfqdBZ547QZtiHx2", "creatorUsername": "MaybeNotDepends", "creatorName": "MaybeNotDepends", "createdTime": 1686258015426, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4VO4XW87xPohAfyLBK7tQTItTIigYkEipdDBlN=s96-c", "closeTime": 1687915833653, "question": "Will the Sierra Leone presidential 2023 election have a second round?", "slug": "will-the-sierra-leone-presidential", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaybeNotDepends/will-the-sierra-leone-presidential", "pool": {"NO": 32.69859794901751, "YES": 254.69020208791738}, "probability": 0.15287117076161866, "p": 0.5843018874030093, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 241.36464713378945, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1687915833653, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687915673229, "lastBetTime": 1687915672245, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If nobody gets 55% in the first round, there is a second round.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FClEof_70Dy.png?alt=media&token=7101ad01-29cd-4396-93d7-8d881023f673", "groupSlugs": ["sierra-leone", "elections-world"], "textDescription": "If nobody gets 55% in the first round, there is a second round."}, {"id": "F52euQLGWbz7QbajY6QX", "creatorId": "E8t1EFK1aGREGgNQWKax50NkZbw1", "creatorUsername": "AdamTreat", "creatorName": "Adam Treat", "createdTime": 1694468178321, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtec_Yedr89qf7dlY4mPLkMCCm-3unk6X9hJh-qK6dCoCUo=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695851035690, "question": "Will Judge Chutkan recuse herself at Trump's request?", "slug": "will-judge-chutkan-recuse-herself-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/will-judge-chutkan-recuse-herself-a", "pool": {"NO": 161.63444744363568, "YES": 690.8229090680533}, "probability": 0.019999999999999997, "p": 0.08022646179959284, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1914.3381781081348, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695851035690, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695851020649, "lastBetTime": 1695850903666, "lastCommentTime": 1695851020008, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump has formally asked Judge Chutkan to recuse herself.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/politics/tanya-chutkan-trump-recusal-request/index.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/politics/tanya-chutkan-trump-recusal-request/index.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will she?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will resolve YES if she chooses to and NO if not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "6c68912a-ccd7-49cd-a8c0-57bbf233602a", "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/politics/tanya-chutkan-trump-recusal-request/index.html", "image": "https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/230811140751-12-trump-hearing-sketch-0811.jpg?c=16x9&q=w_800,c_fill", "title": "Trump asks Judge Tanya Chutkan to recuse herself from federal 2020 election subversion case | CNN Politics", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Trump says is pointing to comments that Judge Tanya Chutkan made in cases involving January 6 US Capitol rioters.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["justice", "us-politics", "magaland"], "textDescription": "Donald Trump has formally asked Judge Chutkan to recuse herself.\n\nhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/09/11/politics/tanya-chutkan-trump-recusal-request/index.html\n\nWill she?\n\nThis question will resolve YES if she chooses to and NO if not.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "dbjtfp5tFh7pxI1Fq0Xt", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1666730291383, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1666810800000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.10 on October 26, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-a98a9ab4fb84", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-a98a9ab4fb84", "pool": {"NO": 904.1339453745167, "YES": 108.60289247312129}, "probability": 0.9267569029340221, "p": 0.6031548496348365, "totalLiquidity": 360, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1664.0668788875573, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1666814844295, "resolutionProbability": 0.9267569029340221, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1666814957049, "lastBetTime": 1666807578244, "lastCommentTime": 1666814955702, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nBetting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. \n\nExcellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "vV1qs5cyN6n0G216vsz9", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883754139, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704036900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-e8cde5f66aa1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-e8cde5f66aa1", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13114754098360656, "p": 0.13114754098360656, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704055319185, "resolutionProbability": 0.13, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704055319489, "lastBetTime": 1703883761943, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-31 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4e44a4d9ea8a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-31 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "ibYAHUtgIipXtMqeTNCQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702451513360, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702652400000, "question": "Will flight AF 1180 from Paris to London departing on 2023-12-15 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-f3ffacd97264", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1180-from-paris-to-l-f3ffacd97264", "pool": {"NO": 156.92457081874238, "YES": 270.05939075352615}, "probability": 0.08390517032996363, "p": 0.1361601063620531, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 139, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702671638348, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702650993068, "lastBetTime": 1702650992929, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-15 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 17:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1180?year=2023&month=12&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1180", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F2eb676101fbd.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1180 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-15 15:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-15 - 17:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "sdTwu2BTfyxroXaR9F5U", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699230225633, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699311600000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on November 6 than it closed on November 5?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-november-6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-november-6", "pool": {"NO": 452.3353360554093, "YES": 41.16629571742042}, "probability": 0.976744672828284, "p": 0.7926357878853452, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 950.3338568349287, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699315750813, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699315742771, "lastBetTime": 1699311472597, "lastCommentTime": 1699315740967, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Yahoo Finance:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $4.7728", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Yahoo Finance:\n\nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD/history/\n\nPrevious Close: $4.7728\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "MQoFBz3U5rT5xEIf38fZ", "creatorId": "Rq5KrjZr1Eg7uoHvudBVBOnbao42", "creatorUsername": "finn", "creatorName": "Finn", "createdTime": 1697302455502, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffinn%2FAMSCbFdDQL.jpg?alt=media&token=349ab73e-f675-4d19-bcab-3f50b0a3feba", "closeTime": 1713049140000, "question": "Will there be 500 fatalities during Israel\u2013Hezbollah confrontations by 13 April 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-500-fatalities-during", "url": "https://manifold.markets/finn/will-there-be-500-fatalities-during", "pool": {"NO": 282.4446237149959, "YES": 2830.1190293308437}, "probability": 0.03816051505378345, "p": 0.28445799699200613, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5951.18260229712, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713955400435, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "Rq5KrjZr1Eg7uoHvudBVBOnbao42", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713960945279, "lastBetTime": 1713038133035, "lastCommentTime": 1713960944583, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve according to ACLED data on the number of fatalities during confrontations between Hezbollah and the military forces of Israel and/or Israeli civilians, starting from 7 October 2023 and ending 13 April 2024 (inclusive).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "c962d526-81c7-4c96-b61a-f7067cc58811", "url": "https://www.swiftcentre.org/israel-hamas-war-will-probably-be-the-deadliest-of-the-last-75-years-of-conflict/", "image": "https://www.swiftcentre.org/content/images/2023/10/Untitled_Artwork-443.jpg", "title": "Israel\u2019s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Israel-Hamas forecasting part 1: of all the wars in the last 75 years of Arab-Israeli conflict, this one is probably going to be the deadliest.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FPAuRaifwFU.jpg?alt=media&token=a3cc6b23-27c0-4f60-b05b-ba0ed21ffaa8", "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "hezbollah"], "textDescription": "Will resolve according to ACLED data on the number of fatalities during confrontations between Hezbollah and the military forces of Israel and/or Israeli civilians, starting from 7 October 2023 and ending 13 April 2024 (inclusive).\n\nFrom here:\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "DbJpqn5NRSsutQ2GA2px", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1699313621769, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1704125268488, "question": "Will Joe Biden leave the country again in 2023?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-leave-the-country-ag", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-joe-biden-leave-the-country-ag", "pool": {"NO": 68.40459469547204, "YES": 10244.408983980846}, "probability": 0.0020250685687657074, "p": 0.23306633090672405, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11447.250743698845, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704125268488, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710224406242, "lastBetTime": 1704125263006, "lastCommentTime": 1704125237438, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Biden has ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "recently flown to Israel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna120919", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to visit Benjamin Netanyahu, earlier this year he went to New Delhi and Hanoi, and most notably Ukraine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the period from November 6th to December 31st, 2023, will Biden leave the country again?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "the-life-of-biden", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "united-states"], "textDescription": "Biden has recently flown to Israel to visit Benjamin Netanyahu, earlier this year he went to New Delhi and Hanoi, and most notably Ukraine.\n\nIn the period from November 6th to December 31st, 2023, will Biden leave the country again?"}, {"id": "0pRGr3abPa0RE99cLoL3", "creatorId": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2", "creatorUsername": "Noah1", "creatorName": "Noah", "createdTime": 1702703009936, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJwFnQN8HIH6Jd9snKrXij62lTfW7yDni_tRTd2ku7WA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713919602107, "question": "Will the United States reauthorize Section 702 by EOY 2024? (Allows warrantless surveillance in some cases)", "slug": "will-the-united-states-reauthorize-6747e0bf2ac4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Noah1/will-the-united-states-reauthorize-6747e0bf2ac4", "pool": {"NO": 678.5585097706679, "YES": 195.9382545851312}, "probability": 0.8949102512719671, "p": 0.7108955707885856, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 681.008587504859, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713919602107, "resolutionProbability": 0.89, "resolverId": "HBFt77FEJING7HsvkAywz5Y1Fmt2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713919602107, "lastBetTime": 1713022815774, "lastCommentTime": 1713656266819, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The US Intelligence Community is pushing to have Section 702, which is set to expire this year, reauthorized. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section 702", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.intel.gov/foreign-intelligence-surveillance-act/1237-fisa-section-702", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " allows warrantless surveillance of people outside of the US. The ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Section's critics", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2023/11/intelligence-committees-proposals-702-reauthorization-bill-are-beyond-bad", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " argue that it's being abused. Will it be reauthorized?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if the US reauthorizes Section 702 by the end of 2024. It will also resolve YES if an amended or reformed version of the Section is passed, or if a functionally identical/very similar statute is passed. The Section must be reauthorized for more than a year to count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Noah1%2F692ba673a182.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "privacy", "internet", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "The US Intelligence Community is pushing to have Section 702, which is set to expire this year, reauthorized. Section 702 allows warrantless surveillance of people outside of the US. The Section's critics argue that it's being abused. Will it be reauthorized?\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the US reauthorizes Section 702 by the end of 2024. It will also resolve YES if an amended or reformed version of the Section is passed, or if a functionally identical/very similar statute is passed. The Section must be reauthorized for more than a year to count."}, {"id": "mkF4WXhEk06myJHkoOfB", "creatorId": "1peFzLQ2AUXC5NzE9xWsRByeMSF3", "creatorUsername": "FutureOwl", "creatorName": "Future Telling Owl", "createdTime": 1662668314038, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFutureOwl%2FXYCT2NQkYd.44?alt=media&token=d1f2390e-ef8d-4731-be88-187a42fd5af2", "closeTime": 1663655539547, "question": "Will exactly one of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris attend the Queen's funeral?", "slug": "will-exactly-one-of-joe-biden-and-k", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FutureOwl/will-exactly-one-of-joe-biden-and-k", "pool": {"NO": 2312.473340459772, "YES": 105.83427745199913}, "probability": 0.9650405092793003, "p": 0.558180659363934, "totalLiquidity": 440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3024.4960419356585, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1663655539547, "resolutionProbability": 0.9650405092793002, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1663655503976, "lastBetTime": 1663655503681, "lastCommentTime": 1662989639118, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral and Kamala Harris does not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Kamala Harris attends the Queen's funeral and Joe Biden does not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if neither attend the Queen's funeral.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if both attend the Queen's funeral.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I felt like this was a good opportunity to give a fresh new puzzle to anyone trying to do market arbitrage.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-kamala-harris-attend-the-queen", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-kamala-harris-attend-the-queen", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't expect this market to have any subjectivity involved in its resolution, so I may elect to participate in it.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["royal-funeral"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if President Biden attends the Queen's funeral and Kamala Harris does not.\n\nResolves YES if Kamala Harris attends the Queen's funeral and Joe Biden does not.\n\nResolves NO if neither attend the Queen's funeral.\n\nResolves NO if both attend the Queen's funeral.\n\nI felt like this was a good opportunity to give a fresh new puzzle to anyone trying to do market arbitrage.\n\nRelated markets:\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-joe-biden-attend-the-queens-fu\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/BTEF2P/will-kamala-harris-attend-the-queen\n\nI don't expect this market to have any subjectivity involved in its resolution, so I may elect to participate in it."}, {"id": "f4Tu7PpKm9L08Wy1j2uB", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1702132729444, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702656000000, "question": "Will SAP close higher december 15th than the close of december 8th? (Weekly Market)", "slug": "will-sap-close-higher-december-15th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-sap-close-higher-december-15th", "pool": {"NO": 60.7317638180508, "YES": 507.24109149193174}, "probability": 0.08508939783364283, "p": 0.43718258350979977, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 514.5046213198798, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702665067987, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222351175, "lastBetTime": 1702653396439, "lastCommentTime": 1702665062769, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSs4YEZtQSw.png?alt=media&token=3af6f1df-edf3-4bff-8629-267ed088b2ec", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SAP:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "NWuWdt3WJDZzsRcS6Rg3", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1685198482004, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1689087609024, "question": "Will Nick De Vries Be Replaced By ALPHATAURI HONDA RBPT F1 Team Before The End Of The 2023 F1 WC Season Is Over?", "slug": "will-nick-de-vries-be-replaced-by-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-nick-de-vries-be-replaced-by-a", "pool": {"NO": 2468.4517791189614, "YES": 11.473933793662207}, "probability": 0.9974530565626167, "p": 0.6454372173817389, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4138.907141150945, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689087609024, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689089826741, "lastBetTime": 1689085355795, "lastCommentTime": 1689089823960, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Nick De Vries", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/drivers/NYCDEV01/nyck-de-vries.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Be Replaced By ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "ALPHATAURI HONDA RBPT F1 Team", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/team/alphatauri_honda_rbpt.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Before The End Of The ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "2023 F1 WC Season", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.formula1.com/en/results.html/2023/drivers.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Is Over?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: Driver is replaced for more than 2 races and/or released by team.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO: Driver is replaced for 1 race and comes back ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A: Driver Death (While rare, I feel it is needed for clarification)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "An announcement is not enough proof, final proof will be the replacement driver officially racing on the grid", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-logan-sargeant-be-replaced-by", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKZYt6BR2vt.png?alt=media&token=b302db90-5195-4904-a2c3-53c2b72803d3", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "formula-1"], "textDescription": "Will Nick De Vries Be Replaced By ALPHATAURI HONDA RBPT F1 Team Before The End Of The 2023 F1 WC Season Is Over?\n\nYes: Driver is replaced for more than 2 races and/or released by team.\n\nNO: Driver is replaced for 1 race and comes back \n\nN/A: Driver Death (While rare, I feel it is needed for clarification)\n\nAn announcement is not enough proof, final proof will be the replacement driver officially racing on the grid\n\nSIMILAR MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-logan-sargeant-be-replaced-by)"}, {"id": "XUiKwwTrKO6gRAuKEdvr", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1649382137356, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1654055940000, "question": "Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1?", "slug": "will-sumy-be-under-russian-control", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-sumy-be-under-russian-control", "pool": {"NO": 496.60051212343024, "YES": 600.9663447212894}, "probability": 0.03328243257252795, "p": 0.039997319217392656, "totalLiquidity": 500.2019316722633, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 101, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1654218918926, "resolutionProbability": 0.03328243257252795, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1652623087285, "lastBetTime": 1652623086906, "description": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10494/sumy-under-russian-control-on-june-1/", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10494/sumy-under-russian-control-on-june-1/"}, {"id": "iFAbdkUQ5UtQfFmimoXO", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1710962423489, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1715201799548, "question": "Will the Georgia Court of Appeals hear Trump's appeal and weigh in on Fani Willis?", "slug": "will-the-georgia-court-of-appeals-h", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-the-georgia-court-of-appeals-h", "pool": {"NO": 213.07665532619777, "YES": 152.8504014738123}, "probability": 0.5965008090048498, "p": 0.5146742358986931, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 66, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715201799548, "resolutionProbability": 0.6, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715201818997, "lastBetTime": 1712012843528, "lastCommentTime": 1715201817643, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Georgia Judge Allows Trump and Co-Defendants to Appeal Ruling on Prosecutor. An appeals court will now decide if it will weigh in on whether Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, should be disqualified", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/trump-georgia-fani-willis-appeal.html?ugrp=m&unlocked_article_code=1.eE0.8tfG.eO_L_rTWkqQp&smid=url-share", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Scott McAfee, the judge in the George election interference case against Trump, recently ruled that District Attorney Fani Willis could stay on the case, despite her relationship with a lead prosecutor she hired. Trump is appealing this decision to the Georgia Court of Appeals. Will this appellate court agree to review McAfee's ruling? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Under Georgia law, the defense lawyers now have 10 days to file an application to the appeals court...The appeals court will have 45 days from the defense filing to say whether it is going to take the case or not.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Georgia Court of Appeals announces it is going to review the decision", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES even if the court accepts the appeal request and ultimately decides to uphold McAfee's original decision", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the court announces they are not taking up the case", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if the court doesn't comment on the appeal request by the 45 day deadline quoted above", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "court-cases", "georgia", "trial-of-the-century"], "textDescription": "\"Georgia Judge Allows Trump and Co-Defendants to Appeal Ruling on Prosecutor. An appeals court will now decide if it will weigh in on whether Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, should be disqualified.\"\n\nContext\n\nScott McAfee, the judge in the George election interference case against Trump, recently ruled that District Attorney Fani Willis could stay on the case, despite her relationship with a lead prosecutor she hired. Trump is appealing this decision to the Georgia Court of Appeals. Will this appellate court agree to review McAfee's ruling? \n\n\"Under Georgia law, the defense lawyers now have 10 days to file an application to the appeals court...The appeals court will have 45 days from the defense filing to say whether it is going to take the case or not.\"\n\nResolution criteria\n\nResolves YES if the Georgia Court of Appeals announces it is going to review the decision\n\nResolves YES even if the court accepts the appeal request and ultimately decides to uphold McAfee's original decision\n\nResolves NO if the court announces they are not taking up the case\n\nResolves NO if the court doesn't comment on the appeal request by the 45 day deadline quoted above"}, {"id": "fXowIPRFM6PvAvbWb0o4", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1665198439145, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City in 2022?", "slug": "will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n", "pool": {"NO": 402.37965793734026, "YES": 3188.4327253379447}, "probability": 0.0025127786953611786, "p": 0.0195706144361445, "totalLiquidity": 500, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7859.979519704696, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672688669489, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671513563109, "lastBetTime": 1671513562950, "lastCommentTime": 1665199078428, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if a nuclear weapon detonates in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "New York City metropolitan area", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any of a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " detonation would count towards question resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n-6edbcd23a9f1", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["nuclear-risk"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.\n\nAny of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.\n\nSee https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.\n\nRelated\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n-6edbcd23a9f1)"}, {"id": "ALQ5ImUrt19xA4DS0wo3", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1681927513163, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682485200000, "question": "Will the #4 Phoenix Suns win Game 5 of their First Round Series against the #5 Clippers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?", "slug": "will-the-4-phoenix-suns-win-game-5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-4-phoenix-suns-win-game-5", "pool": {"NO": 1849.9598783915462, "YES": 98.09627219963586}, "probability": 0.9892513662353606, "p": 0.8299396963819935, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4240.040838497771, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682513492613, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682484177943, "lastBetTime": 1682484176743, "lastCommentTime": 1682483990680, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401541237", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401541237", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "3kHJtchopvQYlpOdeilm,NlIHXD040QpYUBCohrQi,jXop0rhfYpLG3ugXI21c"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FELyi9g1xC0.png?alt=media&token=3ac24ac1-74eb-4767-a92c-5949853ebdcc", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "This market will close 3 hours after the game starts, but I intend to resolve it as soon as it ends.\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401541237\n\nAdditional markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "MnK2coGgiG4deG4TWrBu", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702248666892, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702335600000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 11 than it closed on December 10?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-1998c9d40d45", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-1-1998c9d40d45", "pool": {"NO": 96.51408105550755, "YES": 2308.5269575152315}, "probability": 0.007131523003377472, "p": 0.14661541362659322, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2327.751300784038, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702346589363, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702346586101, "lastBetTime": 1702335392154, "lastCommentTime": 1702346585072, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.6617", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6617\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "LZgniNP69QzOvqDcOXg6", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1677435935475, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will China provide weapons to Russia in 2023?", "slug": "will-china-provide-weapons-to-russi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-china-provide-weapons-to-russi", "pool": {"NO": 323.7977327825653, "YES": 6126.009199256807}, "probability": 0.07161497583193861, "p": 0.5933996649581315, "totalLiquidity": 1945, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 29705.624805656746, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704860864169, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 116, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704860864688, "lastBetTime": 1704011898868, "lastCommentTime": 1704659993045, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that China has provided lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, etc) to Russia, in 2023. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification: The provision of lethal aid must be reported to take place in 2023, and the reporting must be published by the end of 2023. If no such report is published by the end of 2023, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRbnFZLZh6W.png?alt=media&token=bdca6381-5db3-488a-997a-f7c46b83f112", "groupSlugs": ["china", "russia", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that China has provided lethal aid (weapons, ammunition, etc) to Russia, in 2023. Otherwise NO.\n\nClarification: The provision of lethal aid must be reported to take place in 2023, and the reporting must be published by the end of 2023. If no such report is published by the end of 2023, resolves NO.\n\nContext: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2023/02/23/chinas-calculation-on-supplying-russia-with-weapons-00084128"}, {"id": "pVRknTi1kVXS8UL1EJ5e", "creatorId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "creatorUsername": "brp", "creatorName": "Bjorn", "createdTime": 1672575005147, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704034740000, "question": "Will Russian military personnel invade Ukraine from Belarus in 2023?", "slug": "will-russian-military-personnel-inv", "url": "https://manifold.markets/brp/will-russian-military-personnel-inv", "pool": {"NO": 246.8977274836802, "YES": 2756.4476159152564}, "probability": 0.03054952489188881, "p": 0.2602525352842758, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2417.5079710993095, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704151760318, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704151760539, "lastBetTime": 1703917925704, "lastCommentTime": 1704054616790, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please post proof (news articles, video) for immediate YES resolution in comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Military personnel entering Ukraine for the purposes of negotiation does not count toward resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvWtR-K-UQt.png?alt=media&token=c89b3ebb-5586-40e8-80e3-de25418270eb", "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Please post proof (news articles, video) for immediate YES resolution in comments.\n\nMilitary personnel entering Ukraine for the purposes of negotiation does not count toward resolution."}, {"id": "WwCgAH8SFQgqDmRY1SmO", "creatorId": "qNhSYybnz4cHFPWs2oFU6i9G63B3", "creatorUsername": "Ok", "creatorName": "Ok", "createdTime": 1696654555398, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKIjiNIIAYR95FeV2lszmuN_Ol5L5jkMKw5w_3ADBfB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704174540000, "question": "Will JF be charged with murder in 2023?", "slug": "will-jf-be-charged-with-murder-in-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ok/will-jf-be-charged-with-murder-in-2", "pool": {"NO": 142.77347818430994, "YES": 1825.2134504927203}, "probability": 0.02764553824969671, "p": 0.2665762834941023, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2957.192969226616, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704208705237, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "qNhSYybnz4cHFPWs2oFU6i9G63B3", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704208705475, "lastBetTime": 1704170506063, "lastCommentTime": 1697096484550, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lore:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last night on desTINY - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qlamPje1Z8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qlamPje1Z8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ChudLogic - ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LGSMWgMg1E", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LGSMWgMg1E", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if JF is charged with murder (or any crime implying he killed his wife including involuntary) in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if JF is not charged with murder in 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time zone will be Quebec time.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Lore:\n\nLast night on desTINY - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qlamPje1Z8\n\nChudLogic - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LGSMWgMg1E\n\nResolves to YES if JF is charged with murder (or any crime implying he killed his wife including involuntary) in 2023.\n\nResolves to NO if JF is not charged with murder in 2023.\n\nTime zone will be Quebec time."}, {"id": "SUjNlZ7SIpIegw8NCMWw", "creatorId": "0wRzypRgiIcTw6hRej0JYlMzaiX2", "creatorUsername": "JBP", "creatorName": "John Brinsley-Pirie", "createdTime": 1684102423299, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJBP%2Fhx5GOCce1f.jpeg?alt=media&token=64fe0383-3bec-4813-9238-30b91ae097a6", "closeTime": 1701930935234, "question": "Will Chris Hipkins be the New Zealand Prime Minister on 1 December 2023", "slug": "will-chris-hipkins-be-the-new-zeala", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JBP/will-chris-hipkins-be-the-new-zeala", "pool": {"NO": 129.91481205198212, "YES": 23341.465774061606}, "probability": 0.0009688507887611838, "p": 0.1483851817289282, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25981.082615044936, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701930935234, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710208087204, "lastBetTime": 1701922684556, "lastCommentTime": 1701930796324, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The New Zealand election is being held on 14 October 2023 with the official results being returned on 3 November. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Chris Hipkins is the current Prime Minister and leader of the incumbent Labour Party. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The nature of the New Zealand political system makes it less conclusive that there will be a determined result for the Prime Minister as there is a chance of a protracted coalition negotiation. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If Chris Hipkins is the Prime Minister on 1 December 2023, this will resolve \"yes\". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrISokrxdk2.jpg?alt=media&token=8c261c33-6714-4ec7-ba66-4848a4f9f308", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "new-zealand", "nz-politics", "please-resolve"], "textDescription": "The New Zealand election is being held on 14 October 2023 with the official results being returned on 3 November. \n\nChris Hipkins is the current Prime Minister and leader of the incumbent Labour Party. \n\nThe nature of the New Zealand political system makes it less conclusive that there will be a determined result for the Prime Minister as there is a chance of a protracted coalition negotiation. \n\nIf Chris Hipkins is the Prime Minister on 1 December 2023, this will resolve \"yes\". \n\n"}, {"id": "nrB3EzqAxsZZ8TJPEsGy", "creatorId": "sbeStmGsSKehLyVHwZDUTcAXtme2", "creatorUsername": "howtodowtle", "creatorName": "howtodowtle", "createdTime": 1690300547170, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAJDautel%2Ftumblr_m5iokaNFOF1rtaoj3o1_500.jpg?alt=media&token=df8ac67f-8645-4f46-8b11-2cb01c3ab380", "closeTime": 1710443041188, "question": "Will the Los Angeles Clippers win at least 41 games (NBA 2023-2024)?", "slug": "will-the-los-angeles-clippers-win-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/howtodowtle/will-the-los-angeles-clippers-win-a", "pool": {"NO": 507.49447318512773, "YES": 94.8627836703022}, "probability": 0.9169754278337141, "p": 0.6736828535050543, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 495.3606197396864, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710443041188, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "BgCeVUcOzkexeJpSPRNomWQaQaD3", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710443041995, "lastBetTime": 1710440558225, "lastCommentTime": 1710440547060, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the Los Angeles Clippers win at least 41 games in the 2023-2024 season. Resolves to NO in all other cases.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "baseball", "nba"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if the Los Angeles Clippers win at least 41 games in the 2023-2024 season. Resolves to NO in all other cases."}, {"id": "P5GWaBM3zn3aKIxmgibm", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1688522727212, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1688585400000, "question": "Will the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) close higher on July 5th than it closed on July 3rd?", "slug": "will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1113b85e0a7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-d1113b85e0a7", "pool": {"NO": 121.07643294960627, "YES": 443.7370643089067}, "probability": 0.17375356277879378, "p": 0.4352543392523738, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3921.433881722978, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688587961306, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688607756513, "lastBetTime": 1688585362603, "lastCommentTime": 1688607753028, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm EDT. Predictions close 30 minutes prior.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fde807b1-6bdd-4fc6-96d0-35d8d2fd0b21", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Nasdaq Composite Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-b11f8d2710d3", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-22bb7ce6e2b4", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-450791e42f8f", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-5th", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-ju-cad8ecbe8d6e", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-95b94c758adb", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance", "stocks"], "textDescription": "Nasdaq closes at 4pm EDT. Predictions close 30 minutes prior.\n\nResolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.IXIC:INDEXNASDAQ at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\n[link preview]SIMILAR MARKETS\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/AlexbGoode/will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-jul-b11f8d2710d3)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-22bb7ce6e2b4)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-450791e42f8f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-close-higher-july-5th)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-ju-cad8ecbe8d6e)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-95b94c758adb)"}, {"id": "gw38bGnow4dmy6DNIHqh", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1693416695660, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1693468500000, "question": "Will BA flight 107 from London to Dubai on 2023-08-31 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-ba-flight-107-from-london-to-d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-107-from-london-to-d", "pool": {"NO": 94.35613842131404, "YES": 135.48024866363752}, "probability": 0.7000000000000004, "p": 0.7701303529838465, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 118.70609087031742, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693510669560, "resolutionProbability": 0.7, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693458016108, "lastBetTime": 1693458015976, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/52kwtv69", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/52kwtv69", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/52kwtv69"}, {"id": "YRjy6Gf18oeEYcawcXV6", "creatorId": "xN67Q0mAhddL0X9wVYP2YfOrYH42", "creatorUsername": "jonny", "creatorName": "Jonny Spicer", "createdTime": 1677705219024, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikSB2nbgbE_S2n-QUj9ydaNOX1w3QHIQrkvSsQHA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703959101386, "question": "Will Microsoft be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-microsoft-be-in-the-top-10-com", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jonny/will-microsoft-be-in-the-top-10-com", "pool": {"NO": 12246.3598502999, "YES": 415.6879756373604}, "probability": 0.9972605549758737, "p": 0.9251318446624983, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13310.671194350738, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703959101386, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 30, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703959102252, "lastBetTime": 1703954792260, "lastCommentTime": 1703954757620, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if Microsoft has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " although I'm open to better offers.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhJ1XejSuEn.png?alt=media&token=74d90aa5-eae0-4e68-bb9d-565da7a766d3", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will resolve YES if Microsoft has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers."}, {"id": "0smJbjTTv9pVMt2aiutZ", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702346712367, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702422000000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 12 than it closed on December 11?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-55aacaa83682", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-1-55aacaa83682", "pool": {"NO": 1084.8682648067386, "YES": 103.90095561452162}, "probability": 0.9764352505731156, "p": 0.7987308181460503, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1350.5891623893776, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702432744812, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702432738527, "lastBetTime": 1702421680022, "lastCommentTime": 1702432736670, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "6.71", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F4d20146eb458.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $6.71\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "pXHWLieG9sFQR0U3ejye", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1664454915068, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1664478000000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $6.30 on September 29, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-ddf73d006849", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-ddf73d006849", "pool": {"NO": 15.043693170194619, "YES": 664.7303881345091}, "probability": 0.022130430659140474, "p": 0.5000000000000008, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1598.0942047327146, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1664481690348, "resolutionProbability": 0.022130430659140474, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1664477811735, "lastBetTime": 1664477811467, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nBetting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "ukGCy1zdIdckkWQIO2u2", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1673358379533, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "International affairs 2023: No Chinese attack on Taiwan?", "slug": "international-affairs-2023-no-chine", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/international-affairs-2023-no-chine", "pool": {"NO": 2213.660308396294, "YES": 296.2122063357491}, "probability": 0.9792977239741306, "p": 0.8635702592482147, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2343.9321962103822, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704213624286, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704213624493, "lastBetTime": 1704065105540, "lastCommentTime": 1704177130608, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "group ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/2023-matt-yglesias-predictions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "to bet on them all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matthew Yglesias", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/mattyglesias", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Slow Boring", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://slowboring.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjIXUofaxZ3.png?alt=media&token=30946ed3-659c-496b-b0fa-d780a9c4e319", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Ffx6giHAl0R.png?alt=media&token=4ee45c64-ef70-41d3-90fe-8b3019593cac", "groupSlugs": ["2023-matt-yglesias-predictions", "china", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.\n\nMatthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.\n\nRecently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on \nhttps://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:\n\n[image]\n"}, {"id": "nVzDcrrXypKnq9htibQZ", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1678740899502, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1698528330475, "question": "Will New Zealand win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-new-zealand-win-the-2023-rugby", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-new-zealand-win-the-2023-rugby", "pool": {"NO": 61.52591305163514, "YES": 134036.54218487613}, "probability": 0.00028331929490634465, "p": 0.38172252425441955, "totalLiquidity": 1230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 156414.52539575793, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698528330475, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 112, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698528324469, "lastBetTime": 1698528324332, "lastCommentTime": 1698528233897, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FxWmk9B-aF-.png?alt=media&token=2597dcc6-844f-4d45-8a23-62698a1335db", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "rugby", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "8Zx2OKJFsgTrerVgZwQa", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1707138593879, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716586406300, "question": "Will Taylor Swift's new album (Tortured Poets Department) reach #1 in these same 10 countries as her last album?", "slug": "will-taylor-swifts-new-album-tortur", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-taylor-swifts-new-album-tortur", "pool": {"NO": 5500.290669051882, "YES": 501.3499495402376}, "probability": 0.9648183926936165, "p": 0.714259973160582, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4649.934871651166, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716586406300, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716586406300, "lastBetTime": 1716586401815, "lastCommentTime": 1716586346497, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her last album Midnights reached the #1 position in: US, AUS, CAN, DEN, IRE, NZ, NOR, SPA, SWE and UK.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2Fbe40f2656749.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "taylor-swift", "music-artists", "albums", "music-industry"], "textDescription": "Her last album Midnights reached the #1 position in: US, AUS, CAN, DEN, IRE, NZ, NOR, SPA, SWE and UK.\n\nLink: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_Swift_albums_discography"}, {"id": "9XCP4RCtUbbwsiiGHnsg", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1700417810526, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1702667700000, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on Fri. December 15th than it closed on Thu. December 14th? {DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-b87b8eb705db", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-b87b8eb705db", "pool": {"NO": 89.39360024395741, "YES": 191.66666666666669}, "probability": 0.2893398486366568, "p": 0.4660812430802579, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 80, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702678785835, "resolutionProbability": 0.29, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702678780861, "lastBetTime": 1702663917166, "lastCommentTime": 1702678780203, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 215pm ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIUCVR1FH0M.png?alt=media&token=87b4572b-7acc-4c59-ae35-75d6a0e1753e", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-f29dc7859a2d", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "textDescription": "VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX)\n\nVIX closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.\n\nPredictions close at 215pm (715pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-f29dc7859a2d)"}, {"id": "4gj1r2ETXOX5ykUloqVV", "creatorId": "6C8eyp1HS4Qqfpn2ver4UmvM2Xy1", "creatorUsername": "Tyler31", "creatorName": "Tyler", "createdTime": 1645756531968, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTyler31%2FDC815F68-B032-4332-9A3E-1C44415F8CFC.jpeg?alt=media&token=ea917757-68be-4ca9-8369-1e31d65cea92", "closeTime": 1667361540000, "question": "Will GiveWell add a new Top Charity before Dec 1?", "slug": "will-givewell-add-a-new-top-charity-c6a0f8c53e27", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tyler31/will-givewell-add-a-new-top-charity-c6a0f8c53e27", "pool": {"NO": 177.9255493255681, "YES": 147.9164105796557}, "probability": 0.6618110933294383, "p": 0.6193187430007365, "totalLiquidity": 160, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 259.0595498835455, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1674422081670, "resolutionProbability": 0.66, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667358223708, "lastBetTime": 1667358223495, "lastCommentTime": 1662704869749, "description": "Eg as shown here\nhttps://secure.givewell.org/\n\nAny other clear recommendation will resolve as YES", "groupSlugs": ["effective-altruism"], "textDescription": "Eg as shown here\nhttps://secure.givewell.org/\n\nAny other clear recommendation will resolve as YES"}, {"id": "sjdO7mQZsl2nZ10drWeB", "creatorId": "PZnIInE520cQKvTty0lOx1ND7uy1", "creatorUsername": "MatejMecka", "creatorName": "MatejMecka", "createdTime": 1655410606007, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gj6KtYbPT8B-hy1GJXR8ZpUDXtg4s9vge24JSPUCg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1655935140000, "question": "Will North Macedonia get vetoed for EU Ascension?", "slug": "will-north-macedonia-get-vetoed-for", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MatejMecka/will-north-macedonia-get-vetoed-for", "pool": {"NO": 150.63062960584864, "YES": 66.38756026026543}, "probability": 0.6940921850780243, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 75, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1656001350973, "resolutionProbability": 0.6940921850780242, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1656001345353, "lastBetTime": 1655919159058, "lastCommentTime": 1656001340202, "description": "North Macedonia is currently a member candidate to enter the European Union, and in order to join the European Union, each member has to go through a process known as ascension.\n\nOn June 23rd the EU-Western Balkan leaders' summit would decide if North Macedonia can begin the process.\n\nThis question resolves positively if North Macedonia gets vetoed and doesn't start the ascension process.", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "North Macedonia is currently a member candidate to enter the European Union, and in order to join the European Union, each member has to go through a process known as ascension.\n\nOn June 23rd the EU-Western Balkan leaders' summit would decide if North Macedonia can begin the process.\n\nThis question resolves positively if North Macedonia gets vetoed and doesn't start the ascension process."}, {"id": "uvNc6LHF2VOhmWaa1gge", "creatorId": "mKdm4LbjuCYkkyLvzvtYYzTzj612", "creatorUsername": "Soup", "creatorName": "Soup", "createdTime": 1690943498161, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSoup%2Fo-oBMGGMY0.2805178470_afj6?alt=media&token=fe71c11d-6efb-44d0-9183-638847e9d44b", "closeTime": 1702008679609, "question": "Will The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom win Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?", "slug": "will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-7f07ce0c5d67", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Soup/will-the-legend-of-zelda-tears-of-t-7f07ce0c5d67", "pool": {"NO": 112.2585600668688, "YES": 23682.8426922814}, "probability": 0.002204050680730278, "p": 0.3178758970560583, "totalLiquidity": 730, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28544.501472376538, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702008679609, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 42, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702008371041, "lastBetTime": 1702008370926, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "the-game-awards-2023"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "SUJHoehvxktOIOCVpWl0", "creatorId": "p3ADzwIUS3fk0ka80XYEE3OM3S32", "creatorUsername": "PC", "creatorName": "PC", "createdTime": 1688248403366, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPC%2FYCkfuz1Bxk.jpg?alt=media&token=e04bca46-ddf3-4829-995f-8bc656d60173", "closeTime": 1688256796382, "question": "Will Manifold Season 3: July be out today (July 1st)?", "slug": "will-manifold-season-3-july-be-out", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PC/will-manifold-season-3-july-be-out", "pool": {"NO": 11102.200229493417, "YES": 8.543554712983678}, "probability": 0.9997950840778488, "p": 0.7896778109178016, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11051.997065417521, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688256796382, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688256790436, "lastBetTime": 1688256789913, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must see on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/leagues", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leagues", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-leagues"], "textDescription": "Must see on https://manifold.markets/leagues"}, {"id": "HObvIUFVzh3NktEcU9Gj", "creatorId": "R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2", "creatorUsername": "BernieB", "creatorName": "Bernie B", "createdTime": 1707224902859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocK95m7MeYcOAHitk15lojXt5PU6z-9zG9ULA2fHBFjblBg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1707886740000, "question": "Will Sony Group Corporation $SONY report higher total 3rd quarter sales in FY2023 compared to their 3rd Quarter 2022.", "slug": "will-sony-group-corporation-sony-re", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BernieB/will-sony-group-corporation-sony-re", "pool": {"NO": 345.87971981349716, "YES": 181.1293772614497}, "probability": 0.6771971883215082, "p": 0.5234930224127159, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 630.7805765314007, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707900950280, "resolutionProbability": 0.57, "resolverId": "R37sScQRoKT4FQsfoVbrz9uOjyD2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707901234256, "lastBetTime": 1707872273272, "lastCommentTime": 1707901233682, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per Finviz, Sony Group Corporation is expected to report earnings on Feb 14 Before Market Open.  Their 3rd quarter 2022 report showed total sales increased by +381.6 bln yen from their 3rd quarter 2021.   The third quarter is important because it covers the three months ended that December 31.  I will resolve this based on the information posted to the SONY Investor Relations page earnings releases: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Sony Group Portal - Earnings Announcement", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/archive.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BernieB%2Fe139398d1bb2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "technology-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Per Finviz, Sony Group Corporation is expected to report earnings on Feb 14 Before Market Open.  Their 3rd quarter 2022 report showed total sales increased by +381.6 bln yen from their 3rd quarter 2021.   The third quarter is important because it covers the three months ended that December 31.  I will resolve this based on the information posted to the SONY Investor Relations page earnings releases: Sony Group Portal - Earnings Announcement"}, {"id": "9JNB9V6JEFVIbIQ1Cs8D", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1699678680277, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1699867800000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on November 13 than it closed on November 12?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-a7ab0e98b494", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-a7ab0e98b494", "pool": {"NO": 66.78313667822835, "YES": 276.188591110211}, "probability": 0.24274817845486324, "p": 0.5700271876520292, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 506.99891023083745, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699870839065, "resolutionProbability": 0.24, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462487679, "lastBetTime": 1699867016148, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "sccsq4", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "8tds2A0mUP09Iwoot7Su", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701466719713, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702062000000, "question": "Will MSFT close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Dec 3]", "slug": "will-msft-close-higher-on-friday-th-cd2b6957982b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-msft-close-higher-on-friday-th-cd2b6957982b", "pool": {"NO": 1680.9951497056675, "YES": 72.40102632291907}, "probability": 0.9835872670080091, "p": 0.7207587063975067, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2646.829690666323, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702073182258, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702073176296, "lastBetTime": 1702061737964, "lastCommentTime": 1702073175831, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: $369.14", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "aee538b8-9086-4098-b041-a13b680a12bc", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Stock Price & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill MSFT close higher on Friday than it did on Monday?CgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzanip88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFOQDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5bacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5a59a15eb-7184-4fa0-a9a3-9c7a048ee0f5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Microsoft Corp (MSFT) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/1b872a0c0474.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=Ek2ALKwOwQqayEgyCBd9fQL0rRkceJZV5wJ%2BpLcpYbAAvorQx4gWB%2Bltn52sjQO2JswylMtFAy7gYPi%2F3gYdL98aNYYhEbxEyV3NqrkWYTJPxLpByMzDUkeFw4z14nRuahYuHAtYxTvPClsTbSa0F%2B3AhquJZ0zXQ0MTRe%2Fv3qq81JWB5aMlTajAWKfkrS7lDRFmTvjU%2BvAn2M%2BLDqzbLeWCZr0Ipo8WdWpk1S%2BTozhWP1s9v52ST0fV8CDKblYWiLsSQ%2FXTl3RZRkatdI5b5qIbeNaGTEfyfHDDJpLnxOcrqru60mQ7UPPOyaAzsC6o8dra9470O4LtRhhl33ggiw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "finance", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $369.14\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "cb9ORIoTL1DBepG1w1TI", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1693426513287, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1693746156676, "question": "Will Germany win vs. Slovenia in the second group stage at the 2023 FIBA World Cup?", "slug": "will-germany-win-vs-slovenia-in-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-germany-win-vs-slovenia-in-the", "pool": {"NO": 24432.389135130434, "YES": 100.52376262698454}, "probability": 0.9980433839084655, "p": 0.6772821278814252, "totalLiquidity": 670, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 26487.62709118818, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693746156676, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693746140023, "lastBetTime": 1693746139905, "lastCommentTime": 1693746035292, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The game will take place on September 3, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["fiba-basketball-world-cup-2023", "basketball", "sports-default", "world-default"], "textDescription": "The game will take place on September 3, 2023."}, {"id": "MJq92qx8ZVl6uCGPxA4S", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679582317228, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will Justin Roiland, voice of Rick & Morty receive apologies from his former employers since he is found innocent?", "slug": "will-justin-roiland-voice-of-rick-m-b339bb22faaf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-justin-roiland-voice-of-rick-m-b339bb22faaf", "pool": {"NO": 264.69197124139106, "YES": 1296.063038368578}, "probability": 0.04956429706834831, "p": 0.2034078049557916, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1001.5065657737279, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705065326559, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705065326786, "lastBetTime": 1699387973203, "lastCommentTime": 1679595346617, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adult Swim and Hulu severed ties with him as a result of the domestic violence charges filed against him. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The apologies must be public. It must be from executives or relevant employees of those companies. The only instance for a private apology to be acceptable would be if Roiland himself publicly says that he got an apology from them. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1638658335305269251"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FktkGj6G51i.png?alt=media&token=dd7c3344-a4d1-4b2d-a202-186558cc0033", "groupSlugs": ["culture-war", "justin-roiland", "tv", "entertainment", "culture-default", "law-order", "rick-and-morty", "cartoons-animations", "hollywood", "legal-decisions", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Adult Swim and Hulu severed ties with him as a result of the domestic violence charges filed against him. \n\nThe apologies must be public. It must be from executives or relevant employees of those companies. The only instance for a private apology to be acceptable would be if Roiland himself publicly says that he got an apology from them. \n\n[tweet]"}, {"id": "5Dv6vR1WBXM8ZmtQw2Go", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1646514548346, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1680661045818, "question": "Will Finland join NATO before 2024?", "slug": "will-finland-join-nato-before-2024", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-finland-join-nato-before-2024", "pool": {"NO": 15060.692544762827, "YES": 586.0842307199584}, "probability": 0.9939727457064937, "p": 0.8651848092360453, "totalLiquidity": 946.5212355566691, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 36983.55543382428, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680661045818, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 85, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680656829651, "lastBetTime": 1680656829422, "lastCommentTime": 1679167974930, "description": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "global-macro", "metaculus"], "textDescription": "From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "BQvvvsOPKvha9py2kpx3", "creatorId": "Kx0k4qc6X5db7Vykwob35iTMOdL2", "creatorUsername": "vlad", "creatorName": "Vlad Sitalo", "createdTime": 1646521243098, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_FSG-zvOENujw2nEHwfqWtaplkub6_8aJak9sxrA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1648277940000, "question": "Will Russian forces reach and begin a siege of city of Dnipro by the end of March?", "slug": "will-russian-forces-reach-and-begin", "url": "https://manifold.markets/vlad/will-russian-forces-reach-and-begin", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.049312004510469805, "p": 0.049312004510469805, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1826.3464305338903, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1648831596402, "resolutionProbability": 0.049312004510469805, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1646521243098, "lastCommentTime": 1647798332474, "description": "This market resolves Yes if by April 1st Russian forces reached the city of Dnipro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) and engaged into fighting on the outskirts of it/started shelling the city.", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "This market resolves Yes if by April 1st Russian forces reached the city of Dnipro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnipro) and engaged into fighting on the outskirts of it/started shelling the city."}, {"id": "fMXkwOiOvg2jhtGwLroN", "creatorId": "FJvt4PrJ0qWYkZT98A4FQ73fACG3", "creatorUsername": "JamesRomeril", "creatorName": "James Romeril", "createdTime": 1688794690441, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5evQqx6y6gXYylJcwpc43rivLgVYlI8Fmb3NFs-A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1690148568414, "question": "Will mainstream news report that Prigozhin is alive and free by end of July?", "slug": "will-mainstream-news-report-that-pr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesRomeril/will-mainstream-news-report-that-pr", "pool": {"NO": 2059.6651174631234, "YES": 1099.6872780508972}, "probability": 0.7773271085063805, "p": 0.6508187033574423, "totalLiquidity": 1410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15143.483302550898, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690148597373, "resolutionProbability": 0.78, "uniqueBettorCount": 72, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690473082118, "lastBetTime": 1690057617133, "lastCommentTime": 1690473079143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any news coming from any one of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The New York Times", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The Wall Street Journal", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The Washington Post", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 ABC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 CNN", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 Fox", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That reports evidence that Prigozhin is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that are insufficient to resolve yes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 Speculation about motives of Prigozhin", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 Reports of whereabouts of Prigozhin that include no evidence (anonymous sources are not considered evidence in this case)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 Hearsay. Sources that claim Prigozhin is free must provide some verifiable evidence to the claim.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukraine"], "textDescription": "Any news coming from any one of:\n\n\u2022 The New York Times\n\n\u2022 The Wall Street Journal\n\n\u2022 The Washington Post\n\n\u2022 ABC\n\n\u2022 CNN\n\n\u2022 Fox\n\nThat reports evidence that Prigozhin is not captured/imprisoned/dead will resolve yes.\n\nThings that are insufficient to resolve yes:\n\n\u2022 Speculation about motives of Prigozhin\n\n\u2022 Reports of whereabouts of Prigozhin that include no evidence (anonymous sources are not considered evidence in this case)\n\n\u2022 Hearsay. Sources that claim Prigozhin is free must provide some verifiable evidence to the claim."}, {"id": "ImXQpqYO2mAUVsTSe97L", "creatorId": "o0WhYqFb9YMhMYqZAJP8ukJf8Bg1", "creatorUsername": "sugarkfjfjfjs", "creatorName": "Alldjhf", "createdTime": 1682530179216, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPercy%2Fc2J9ffHsGd.jpg?alt=media&token=f2a2199d-80db-493a-9075-8f9fba72bf84", "closeTime": 1682620140000, "question": "Is it fraudulent activity for me to have username Messi? Why would someone report me for it?", "slug": "is-it-fraudulent-activity-for-me-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/sugarkfjfjfjs/is-it-fraudulent-activity-for-me-to", "pool": {"NO": 45.44297669477265, "YES": 415.4602590342651}, "probability": 0.024353471681853523, "p": 0.1858057409506194, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 378.5397409657348, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683040378459, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682578021541, "lastBetTime": 1682578021400, "lastCommentTime": 1682575003007, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm a big Messi fan. I love Messi. Is it fraudulent if my username is Messi?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My description is \"Messi fan\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What's the problems?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Who really think I'm the real Leo? I'd like explaining.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJI7VZKgVHf.jpg?alt=media&token=f0486e6f-8f36-4fa8-ace5-5d3b656635a6", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " Resolution is likely NO unless someone provide good reason. Then answer is Yes. I'd not bet cuz I'm wanna be market resolved not trader ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FSKHKOSkYwD.png?alt=media&token=8b256bcb-4cc8-44e3-9f5e-60afe7972614", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "I'm a big Messi fan. I love Messi. Is it fraudulent if my username is Messi?\n\nMy description is \"Messi fan\"\n\nWhat's the problems?\n\nWho really think I'm the real Leo? I'd like explaining.\n\n[image] Resolution is likely NO unless someone provide good reason. Then answer is Yes. I'd not bet cuz I'm wanna be market resolved not trader \n\n"}, {"id": "Hozqp49jC4Uu76vAEsaI", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1713063106784, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1714742993709, "question": "Will \"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) have >70% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?", "slug": "will-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-e6b5e9df1560", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-ministry-of-ungentlemanly-e6b5e9df1560", "pool": {"NO": 6926.461577777276, "YES": 99.13409940522342}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.5862511068383529, "totalLiquidity": 620, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8977.081115405317, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1714742993709, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714743142033, "lastBetTime": 1714742971652, "lastCommentTime": 1714743140370, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 3rd ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ties resolve NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For context, here are the Tomatometer scores for other recent films by the same director (Guy Ritchie):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - 83%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/guy_ritchies_the_covenant", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre - 51%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/operation_fortune_ruse_de_guerre", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wrath of Man - 67%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wrath_of_man", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" stars Henry Cavill (\"Man of Steel\") and Alan Ritchson (\"Reacher\").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "boxoffice", "movies", "television-film", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare\n\nI will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 3rd (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails:\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nFor context, here are the Tomatometer scores for other recent films by the same director (Guy Ritchie):\n\nGuy Ritchie's The Covenant - 83%\n\nOperation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre - 51%\n\nWrath of Man - 67%\n\n\"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare\" stars Henry Cavill (\"Man of Steel\") and Alan Ritchson (\"Reacher\").\n\n"}, {"id": "XMszOCV5uvzN27x9C7SN", "creatorId": "LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322", "creatorUsername": "esusatyo", "creatorName": "Enrico Susatyo", "createdTime": 1712572050951, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fesusatyo%2FEdn_h0yDQN.png?alt=media&token=fad88830-632c-406f-8a98-6f3b503a06f8", "closeTime": 1715094140574, "question": "\ud83d\udcf1 Will Apple have a product release event in May 2024?", "slug": "-will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68", "url": "https://manifold.markets/esusatyo/-will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68", "pool": {"NO": 7479.926660077874, "YES": 498.13585576485457}, "probability": 0.9900000000000001, "p": 0.8683004297757125, "totalLiquidity": 1035, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 27508.871286953847, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715094140574, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "LS8QezxzKTM1eIU58fCLKE2KH322", "uniqueBettorCount": 53, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715094140574, "lastBetTime": 1715086996823, "lastCommentTime": 1713911221056, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Just a press release doesn't count, but if they ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announce a video ahead of time and play it live", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["apple", "-ipad", "-mac", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023\n\nJust a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES."}, {"id": "zPrJEgb4ZbzAPIT348qW", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702935317360, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703113200000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 20 than it closed on December 19?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-3cf07d55658a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-3cf07d55658a", "pool": {"NO": 485.0290331135458, "YES": 116.79732264779453}, "probability": 0.9163656593671818, "p": 0.7251578981383072, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 614.9913730084949, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703222192598, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703222188091, "lastBetTime": 1703111320936, "lastCommentTime": 1703222187383, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $6.70", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F642c924582da.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $6.70\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "DeWET2X6yYPP2mITgzpl", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429228081, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707510300000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-02-09 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-5a479021bcf2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-5a479021bcf2", "pool": {"NO": 105.50458230711224, "YES": 140}, "probability": 0.10858079013752277, "p": 0.13914227589586592, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707585578478, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707585578782, "lastBetTime": 1707502361035, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-09 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=02&date=09", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F595a2c6d037f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-09 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-09 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "myDSgvho7kv0WEUwgD3q", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1706798836031, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711853359244, "question": "Will the US Congress pass 2 or more bills in Mar 2024?", "slug": "will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-8cb0844a80dd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-us-congress-pass-2-or-more-8cb0844a80dd", "pool": {"NO": 20608.393418352935, "YES": 74.12349883931529}, "probability": 0.9995228436628946, "p": 0.8828259865245841, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22308.58299210675, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711853359244, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711853359588, "lastBetTime": 1711853356209, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Mar 2024 ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Fa54b4a1b12f9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "118th-congress"], "textDescription": "Resolution base on passed bills listed on LegiScan \nhttps://legiscan.com/US/legislation?status=passed \nResolves YES if the US Congress passed 2 or more bills in Mar 2024 \n"}, {"id": "QP1XMjp7vtiuo5hPjtTy", "creatorId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "creatorUsername": "StochasticParrot", "creatorName": "Stochastic Cockatoo", "createdTime": 1706743392411, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAlexKChen%2F9t8qK-m5xV.jpg?alt=media&token=49516106-09f1-4739-8fe2-84ed34157855", "closeTime": 1708198498551, "question": "Will February 2024 in Denver have more than 10 inches of snow?", "slug": "will-february-2024-in-denver-have-m", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StochasticParrot/will-february-2024-in-denver-have-m", "pool": {"NO": 723.4011712793699, "YES": 3.4558970862303795}, "probability": 0.9952454241189382, "p": 0.5000000000000027, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 891.6629148566014, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708198498551, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "1YaTkbpWOCfHZXq2qtTqL3ikwzu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708198488169, "lastBetTime": 1708198488013, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/stochasticcockatoo%2F024097246c5e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["will-it-snow", "weather", "denver"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "JY0KRqqoBKijxsU0ekQB", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681939587, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711375199950, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 24, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-476338487621", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-476338487621", "pool": {"NO": 41.27386298364537, "YES": 4665.9365047457995}, "probability": 0.002925878170563004, "p": 0.2491003778360435, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4996.259746874298, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711461535604, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711375199950, "lastBetTime": 1711374433978, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 24, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F4ff408900b32.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 24, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "fTWVZ2rdvLSrWXR9bjR7", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1677105535186, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1678592724477, "question": "Will the Mogul Chessboxing Championship win 'Best Stream Event' at The Streamer Awards 2023?", "slug": "will-the-mogul-chessboxing-champion", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-the-mogul-chessboxing-champion", "pool": {"NO": 1321.5300020132704, "YES": 28.37566706643252}, "probability": 0.9755696527990391, "p": 0.46162114293566187, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3318.5675463605294, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678592724477, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206819944, "lastBetTime": 1678592467121, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thestreamerawards.com/about", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thestreamerawards.com/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg9CH4KlKMc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg9CH4KlKMc", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FP4mg8LCbiv.png?alt=media&token=6265bd61-0d58-4a36-8f8b-47ef3f788263", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "chess", "boxing", "celebrity-boxing", "streamer", "the-streamer-awards"], "textDescription": "https://thestreamerawards.com/about\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tg9CH4KlKMc"}, {"id": "0k9r2nXNHMcumbFzi4TG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704623882155, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704696300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-01-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-17f05c7e985d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-17f05c7e985d", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.08474576271186439, "p": 0.08474576271186439, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704786704142, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704786704419, "lastBetTime": 1704623887689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-08 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=01&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F4ee7ac2fc7b5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-08 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-08 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? 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have raised $300K USD or more for charity by EOY 2026?", "slug": "will-manifold-have-raised-300k-usd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-manifold-have-raised-300k-usd", "pool": {"NO": 1669.92962318375, "YES": 37.77696007079203}, "probability": 0.9897299304063789, "p": 0.6855423655716362, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1544.5444397622005, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716409866738, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716409866738, "lastBetTime": 1716409841460, "lastCommentTime": 1716409844265, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2Fed997a03df47.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-for-charity", "charity", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-users", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "manifold-adoption", "2026"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "NG6zcuG0pbonAqHl9LOZ", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1678480819917, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1682112741866, "question": "Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?", "slug": "will-russia-control-bakhmut-before", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-before", "pool": {"NO": 15949.13830336783, "YES": 386.5928208568674}, "probability": 0.9885014649970747, "p": 0.6757224003233057, "totalLiquidity": 1450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 47779.61531876141, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682112741866, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 73, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682112608417, "lastBetTime": 1682112608269, "lastCommentTime": 1682112427292, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Russia takes control of the train station \"Bakhmut 2\" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, at any point in time before June 1, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 31.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fd80ADEteri.png?alt=media&token=6f19e1f7-fc75-4a09-a8ba-4bb5d862b6e1", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-marc", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Russia control Bakhmut before June 1?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F3tEGSKVahi.png?alt=media&token=2ccf042a-0c99-4e8f-8827-98befca6a66f", "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "bakhmut"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Russia takes control of the train station \"Bakhmut 2\" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, at any point in time before June 1, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). \n\nIf this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 31.\n\nSee https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.\n\n[image](Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)\n\nResolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-russia-control-bakhmut-by-marc)(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut before June 1? \u2192 Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?"}, {"id": "mq3NgvqYtgzAx7JGs8Wp", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710359262569, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715960306168, "question": "Will \"The Fall Guy\" (2024) have a Metacritic score >75?", "slug": "will-the-fall-guy-2024-have-a-metac", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-fall-guy-2024-have-a-metac", "pool": {"NO": 10.791842533013494, "YES": 1244.040991950551}, "probability": 0.009999999999999941, "p": 0.537979165362273, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1272.198434835357, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715960306168, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715960306168, "lastBetTime": 1715951958945, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" (2024) Metacritic page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 17th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" just premiered at SXSW, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some reviews have already been released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Metascore for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Deadpool 2\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/deadpool-2/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (same director) is currently 66.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Fall Guy\" is an upcoming (May 5th release) action blockbuster directed by David Leitch (\"Deadpool 2\", \"Bullet Train\", \"Atomic Blonde\"), about a stuntman (Ryan Gosling) who has to find ex (Emily Blunt) after she goes missing. Here's the trailer:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/j7jPnwVGdZ8", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "entertainment", "boxoffice", "media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "movies", "hollywood"], "textDescription": "\"The Fall Guy\" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-fall-guy/\n\nI will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 17th (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails\n\nNOTE: \"The Fall Guy\" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been released\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Metascore for \"Deadpool 2\" (same director) is currently 66.\n\nContext\n\n\"The Fall Guy\" is an upcoming (May 5th release) action blockbuster directed by David Leitch (\"Deadpool 2\", \"Bullet Train\", \"Atomic Blonde\"), about a stuntman (Ryan Gosling) who has to find ex (Emily Blunt) after she goes missing. Here's the trailer:\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/j7jPnwVGdZ8)"}, {"id": "lwYRYvKmSPlipN4fj08P", "creatorId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "creatorUsername": "LBeesley", "creatorName": "Spongpad", "createdTime": 1683678984213, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLBeesley%2F_uhmErZXVJ.jpg?alt=media&token=d65ca4c2-2cf8-44dd-8624-9f8c6cb1e486", "closeTime": 1696870610349, "question": "Will Robert F Kennedy Jr still be a Democratic candidate for US President at the end of CY2023?", "slug": "will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-still-be-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-still-be-a", "pool": {"NO": 97.26264639678814, "YES": 3405.49917420903}, "probability": 0.022851210174146087, "p": 0.4501899967345323, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4813.894688450006, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696870610349, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696870520859, "lastBetTime": 1696870258052, "lastCommentTime": 1696870520138, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/19/rfk-jr-campaign-poll-biden-voters/11690888002/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/19/rfk-jr-campaign-poll-biden-voters/11690888002/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lo and behold, a Kennedy is running for President in the 21st Century. He's also challenging an incumbent who has announced his bid for re-election. It may be too early to say, but I'm not sure if I asked 10 random people on my street if they knew he's even alive they'd answer yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on RFK Jr's campaign status at the conclusion of the calendar year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQ3GEEDUvOM.png?alt=media&token=6c555c14-9d45-48fa-b70c-57e25d0fd902", "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election"], "textDescription": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/19/rfk-jr-campaign-poll-biden-voters/11690888002/\n\nLo and behold, a Kennedy is running for President in the 21st Century. He's also challenging an incumbent who has announced his bid for re-election. It may be too early to say, but I'm not sure if I asked 10 random people on my street if they knew he's even alive they'd answer yes.\n\nResolves based on RFK Jr's campaign status at the conclusion of the calendar year.\n\n"}, {"id": "5fbqkkVcAaS0utPhtuVv", "creatorId": "tjCZCCzkqrbge4kWdF0kVcl3gKy2", "creatorUsername": "Rachell", "creatorName": "Rachel", "createdTime": 1693320078355, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfuc0ZjvJdd5gXz7qKXp52UUSnBpvmuyM7lGQHF7S85=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693700802148, "question": "Will Hurricane Idalia turn around over the Atlantic and hit Florida again?", "slug": "will-hurricane-idalia-turn-around-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Rachell/will-hurricane-idalia-turn-around-o", "pool": {"NO": 107.01296379768792, "YES": 1447.082781791281}, "probability": 0.010119490216126837, "p": 0.1214504445048413, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1627.6184762513071, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1693700802148, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693684697867, "lastBetTime": 1693606534814, "lastCommentTime": 1693684696450, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some of the spaghetti tracks are forecasting Idalia to turn around over the Atlantic after hitting the gulf coast of Florida, and then hitting the Atlantic coast of Florida. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Idalia makes landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida at tropical storm intensity or higher. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1a43bpKdf9.png?alt=media&token=65c8a691-d570-4e5b-9532-7413b854576e", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["natural-disasters", "extreme-weather", "weather", "2023-hurricane-season"], "textDescription": "Some of the spaghetti tracks are forecasting Idalia to turn around over the Atlantic after hitting the gulf coast of Florida, and then hitting the Atlantic coast of Florida. \n\nResolves to YES if Idalia makes landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida at tropical storm intensity or higher. \n\n[image]"}, {"id": "YLWT51NeoVfd1LSs0F4E", "creatorId": "APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2", "creatorUsername": "parhizj", "creatorName": "JRP", "createdTime": 1702169658695, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8", "closeTime": 1704085200000, "question": "Arctic Sea Ice Volume for December 2023 >= 12,500 km^3", "slug": "arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-december", "url": "https://manifold.markets/parhizj/arctic-sea-ice-volume-for-december", "pool": {"NO": 342.0317729485243, "YES": 415.87788191969014}, "probability": 0.5973618433367486, "p": 0.6433588992614847, "totalLiquidity": 397.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 364, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704835533992, "resolutionProbability": 0.6, "resolverId": "APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705231175323, "lastBetTime": 1702411595392, "lastCommentTime": 1705231173484, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for December 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 12,500 km^3?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") for the \"Monthly Ice Volume\" is greater than or equal to 12,500 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 12.500 in the .csv file equals 12,500 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 12.500 in the csv file for December 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 12.500 will resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Motivation:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Quote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: \"Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Timeframe:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will close on January 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for December 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of December 2023 is not available for download by January 21, 2024 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Comments:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Keep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS \"Purpose\" section for more information).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A few references for general knowledge:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[1] PIOMAS:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.arcus.org/sipn", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.arcus.org/sipn", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["weather", "arctic", "climate"], "textDescription": "Will the monthly Arctic Sea Ice Volume for December 2023, as reported from the PIOMAS reanalysis, be greater than or equal to 12,500 km^3?\n\nCriteria:\n\nThe market will resolve YES if the number reported from PIOMAS (presently at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/) for the \"Monthly Ice Volume\" is greater than or equal to 12,500 km^3. I will use the csv data linked in the above URL. Please note the data is in units of 10^3 km^3, so a value of 12.500 in the .csv file equals 12,500 km^3; e.g., a value of >= 12.500 in the csv file for December 2023 will resolve YES; a value < 12.500 will resolve NO).\n\nMotivation:\n\nQuote from the PIOMAS [1] web page: \"Sea ice volume is an important climate indicator. It depends on both ice thickness and extent and therefore more directly tied to climate forcing than extent alone.\"\n\nResolution Timeframe:\n\nThis market will close on January 1. I will try to resolve the market within a day of the data for December 2023 becoming available. To keep the market somewhat timely, I will give up to (roughly) three weeks for the data to be published; specifically, if the data for the month of December 2023 is not available for download by January 21, 2024 12:00 PM EST, I will resolve this market to N/A then.\n\nComments:\n\nKeep in mind that PIOMAS is a reanalysis, so this market's question is ultimately predicting the model's estimate for arctic ice volume (see the PIOMAS \"Purpose\" section for more information).\n\nA few references for general knowledge:\n\n[1] PIOMAS:\n\nhttp://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/\n\n[2] Some further nice info graphics on sea ice, courtesy of Zachary Labe:\n\nhttps://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/\n\n[3] Sea Ice Prediction Network (providing forecasts for sea ice extent, analysis, and many other things):\n\nhttps://www.arcus.org/sipn"}, {"id": "S1oiaSlZvgT1IPyQQgaf", "creatorId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "creatorUsername": "CarsonGale", "creatorName": "Carson Gale", "createdTime": 1672886875201, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCarsonGale%2Fhqs4q-lat4.jpg?alt=media&token=56f63f36-5d81-45fd-9ff3-a1fc33070eae", "closeTime": 1704227749239, "question": "Part 3: In 2023, will state policymakers crack down on Big Tech's data collection measures by issuing hefty fines?", "slug": "part-3-in-2023-will-state-policymak", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/part-3-in-2023-will-state-policymak", "pool": {"NO": 152.5027009095444, "YES": 662.7564760916024}, "probability": 0.16000000000000014, "p": 0.45288946528892, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 659.720022161781, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704227753157, "resolutionProbability": 0.16, "resolverId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704227753475, "lastBetTime": 1704137044883, "lastCommentTime": 1704227729080, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 4th, 2023 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Term Sheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fortune.com/newsletter/termsheet", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of these predictions was the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201c", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2023 will be riddled with Big Tech companies developing corporate policies in direct response to evolving data privacy regulations. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "In absence of a federal data privacy law, Big Tech will have to shuffle their operations to meet varying state privacy policies.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " With increasing demands for consumer data protection, state policymakers will be forced to crack down on Big Tech\u2019s data collection measures by issuing hefty fines.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "\u201d \u2014Steffen Schebesta, CEO North America & VP corporate development, Sendinblue", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as \"n/a\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[TBU]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["term-sheet-2023-predictions", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. \n\nOne of these predictions was the following:\n\n\u201c2023 will be riddled with Big Tech companies developing corporate policies in direct response to evolving data privacy regulations. In absence of a federal data privacy law, Big Tech will have to shuffle their operations to meet varying state privacy policies. With increasing demands for consumer data protection, state policymakers will be forced to crack down on Big Tech\u2019s data collection measures by issuing hefty fines.\u201d \u2014Steffen Schebesta, CEO North America & VP corporate development, Sendinblue\n\nI will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as \"n/a\". \n\nAny clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date: \n\n[TBU]\n"}, {"id": "J3b9GSr8R8iRuyibhTJp", "creatorId": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "creatorUsername": "Conflux", "creatorName": "Conflux", "createdTime": 1675390910802, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FConflux%2FIaFDTz3rB-.png?alt=media&token=d064eaf3-f07d-4e16-9cdd-373b64a5cd17", "closeTime": 1676145600000, "question": "Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Sat., Feb 11?", "slug": "will-maniswipe-be-the-default-on-mo-91a441d27e31", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-maniswipe-be-the-default-on-mo-91a441d27e31", "pool": {"NO": 4139.776169961102, "YES": 265.6220593919194}, "probability": 0.9811525059071002, "p": 0.7695949357970427, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8997.530018742027, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1676145675707, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1676145741887, "lastBetTime": 1676139907304, "lastCommentTime": 1676145737553, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lasted longer than I thought it would.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I plan to open the Manifold app on Saturday, February 11 at exactly noon PST to check. If I forget or am slightly late, I'll resolve based on my best guess on what would have happened at noon.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See previously:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "1IuahWgyC8oufEtkB4zy,RRoShxaqUYVlY5pYdr1U,WQzOYer2ofmveZPDewUc,QSQ0ig1X65hVd38ck3Fv"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Show less", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 2, 6:22pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Saturday, Feb 11?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Sat., Feb 11?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-11 12:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FysxwaRTh31.png?alt=media&token=201aec50-da53-45cd-bdef-27dce9c89e89", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"], "textDescription": "Lasted longer than I thought it would.\n\nI plan to open the Manifold app on Saturday, February 11 at exactly noon PST to check. If I forget or am slightly late, I'll resolve based on my best guess on what would have happened at noon.\n\nSee previously:\n\n[markets]General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.\n\nShow less\n\nFeb 2, 6:22pm: Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Saturday, Feb 11? \u2192 Will Maniswipe be the default on mobile on Sat., Feb 11?\n\nClose date updated to 2023-02-11 12:00 pm"}, {"id": "KqOJYum9OVeAl0eGGJqN", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1683194997090, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1685613994273, "question": "Will Pacific Western Bank (PacWest Bank) Fail By End Of May 2023?", "slug": "will-pacific-western-bank-pacwest-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-pacific-western-bank-pacwest-b", "pool": {"NO": 51.80483234421263, "YES": 30902.316894049673}, "probability": 0.00044835428832082824, "p": 0.21108871921654562, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34493.1672937547, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1685613994273, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685613984661, "lastBetTime": 1685613984491, "lastCommentTime": 1683880536347, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if it will. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO if it will not.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A If it is sold to another entity before failing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Stock Price:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pacw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pacw", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Proof will be posted here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time is in EST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKkO9P2gMRy.png?alt=media&token=06a48d1a-907e-49cd-a92b-b34809741e50", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "economics-default", "finance"], "textDescription": "YES if it will. \n\nNO if it will not.\n\nN/A If it is sold to another entity before failing.\n\nCurrent Stock Price:\n\nhttps://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/pacw\n\nProof will be posted here:\n\nhttps://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/\n\nTime is in EST."}, {"id": "1epcM3SEbwH4f7TJQyrR", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691701467219, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1692054000000, "question": "Will Litecoin (LTC/USD) Close Higher August 14th Than August 13th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-146e9e7eee60", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-litecoin-ltcusd-close-higher-a-146e9e7eee60", "pool": {"NO": 230.47022176413262, "YES": 163.38776599556084}, "probability": 0.6879969564360167, "p": 0.6098724535985985, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 338.9072842039567, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692063873560, "resolutionProbability": 0.69, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692063873461, "lastBetTime": 1692051255844, "lastCommentTime": 1692063870430, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FwFoMDwifHE.png?alt=media&token=e1fbe884-2884-464b-90d8-e6cd1e772c8b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance", "crypto-speculation", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "LTC/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/LTC-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "H9uNKuDUSDza2jQX3rKU", "creatorId": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2", "creatorUsername": "nikki", "creatorName": "nikki", "createdTime": 1700085750667, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnikki%2F4eN6qmeT5i.png?alt=media&token=be649e25-0d84-4754-a497-f98cb9862793", "closeTime": 1709605972738, "question": "Will New York redistrict its congressional map before the November 2024 election?", "slug": "will-new-york-redistrict-its-congre", "url": "https://manifold.markets/nikki/will-new-york-redistrict-its-congre", "pool": {"NO": 4437.1743597182285, "YES": 9.658868185545543}, "probability": 0.9985894998989281, "p": 0.6064711765708481, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4355.939838239678, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709605972738, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "Gg7t9vPD4WPD1iPgj9RUFLYTxgH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709606006634, "lastBetTime": 1709605935127, "lastCommentTime": 1709606006177, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The new map must be in effect for the November 2024 election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Small technical changes do not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-congressional-elections-2024", "2024-us-election", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "The new map must be in effect for the November 2024 election.\n\nSmall technical changes do not count."}, {"id": "MfZnwOfqtlzpb5kb7UEA", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1695227875372, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1700380863145, "question": "Will Oscar Piastri finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-oscar-piastri-finish-in-the-po-7433455c05d9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-oscar-piastri-finish-in-the-po-7433455c05d9", "pool": {"NO": 15717.153106442449, "YES": 53.855945594896184}, "probability": 0.9990113868911232, "p": 0.7759159944389831, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17665.474604605246, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700380863145, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700380860443, "lastBetTime": 1700380860309, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "obATyVH8d5IbVHV9zelv", "creatorId": "bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2", "creatorUsername": "EricBolton", "creatorName": "Eric Bolton", "createdTime": 1699403884371, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEricBolton%2F5SALnwVz16.jpeg?alt=media&token=7d490779-08b7-4742-9cef-e6d468df0f51", "closeTime": 1715659140000, "question": "Will a prominent AI X-Risk entity announce a \"Hail Mary\" third-party presidential run before TX's ballot deadline?", "slug": "will-a-prominent-ai-xrisk-entity-an", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EricBolton/will-a-prominent-ai-xrisk-entity-an", "pool": {"NO": 594.1058981218296, "YES": 2015.2654735101105}, "probability": 0.053678393787159474, "p": 0.1613627557841327, "totalLiquidity": 740, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3758.166617986713, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715704052991, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "bFuNwkqX9qZt8d4IJTalGkRlt3n2", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715659140000, "lastBetTime": 1715532679470, "lastCommentTime": 1715704032228, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Given many timelines place AGI somewhere before 2028 (the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " mode is at 2026), the 2024 cycle might be the last chance to elect a president who can do something to stop or postpone it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It also looks like a surprisingly fertile election for a third-party run:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "67e73dd9-3b17-4cc6-a518-698a17c5e79c", "url": "https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/rfk-jr-beating-biden-trump-young-voters-1234871560/", "image": "https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/rfk-jr-poll.jpg?w=1600&h=900&crop=1", "title": "RFK Jr. Beating Biden and Trump Among Young Voters in Key States: Poll", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Robert Kennedy Jr. polled ahead of Biden and Trump among swing-state voters under the age of 45 in a new Sienna College poll.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will someone actually try?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves positively if a recognized AI X-Risk organization known for its commitment to mitigating the existential threats of artificial intelligence endorses a third-party presidential run, or a recognized AI X-Risk activist announces their intent to run for office.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'm thinking \"must have a Wikipedia page that links to or is linked from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " page\" but I'm open to other suggestions.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The declaration must be official, public, and specifically aim at influencing AI policy", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The declaration must occur before the Texas ballot application deadline on May 13, 2024. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Source: Ballotpedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Filing_deadlines_for_independent_presidential_candidates,_2024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election", "ai", "us-politics", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Given many timelines place AGI somewhere before 2028 (the Metaculus mode is at 2026), the 2024 cycle might be the last chance to elect a president who can do something to stop or postpone it.\n\nIt also looks like a surprisingly fertile election for a third-party run:\n\n[link preview]Will someone actually try?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\nThis market resolves positively if a recognized AI X-Risk organization known for its commitment to mitigating the existential threats of artificial intelligence endorses a third-party presidential run, or a recognized AI X-Risk activist announces their intent to run for office.\n\nI'm thinking \"must have a Wikipedia page that links to or is linked from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence page\" but I'm open to other suggestions.\n\n\nThe declaration must be official, public, and specifically aim at influencing AI policy\n\nThe declaration must occur before the Texas ballot application deadline on May 13, 2024. (Source: Ballotpedia)"}, {"id": "PjfgD2qroum5sZ20Lhpz", "creatorId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "creatorUsername": "BramStolk", "creatorName": "Bram Stolk", "createdTime": 1662704673637, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1662904800000, "question": "Will Ferrari score more points than Mercedes in Monza GP Formula1?", "slug": "will-ferrari-score-more-points-than", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BramStolk/will-ferrari-score-more-points-than", "pool": {"NO": 275, "YES": 36.36363636363637}, "probability": 0.8832116788321167, "p": 0.4999999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 175, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1662906985407, "resolutionProbability": 0.6097560975609755, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1662902337614, "lastBetTime": 1662902335878, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Ferrari outscores Mercedes in Monza GP.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes potential point for Fastest Lap, in addition to points for Leclerc, Sainz, Russel, Hamilton.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FevmEKCfedE.jpeg?alt=media&token=a85679d8-0701-4c0e-ad8e-bd45325a6423", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if Ferrari outscores Mercedes in Monza GP.\n\nThis includes potential point for Fastest Lap, in addition to points for Leclerc, Sainz, Russel, Hamilton.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "MqUw9GFeamJ7JazoSID3", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1677570135532, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1677960944238, "question": "Will Destiny's video \"Rogan And Hasan Freak Out Over VIRAL Ohio Train Derailment Videos\" reach 200k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-video-rogan-and-hasan", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-rogan-and-hasan", "pool": {"NO": 10371.670163125684, "YES": 15.55551949902474}, "probability": 0.9993169447798592, "p": 0.6869360556585877, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10329.695839990014, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1677960944238, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218551286, "lastBetTime": 1677960940545, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/C-ZXXnf6Gkw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/C-ZXXnf6Gkw", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 27, 11:44pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Destiny's video \"Rogan And Hasan Freak Out Over VIRAL Ohio Train Derailment Videos\" reach 200k views or more by 3/05 9 A.M. PST?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Destiny's video \"Rogan And Hasan Freak Out Over VIRAL Ohio Train Derailment Videos\" reach 200k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FqHELsa9lB7.png?alt=media&token=7094399f-3932-480a-9cf1-2fd6be62f9aa", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/C-ZXXnf6Gkw\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. \n\nFeb 27, 11:44pm: Will Destiny's video \"Rogan And Hasan Freak Out Over VIRAL Ohio Train Derailment Videos\" reach 200k views or more by 3/05 9 A.M. PST? \u2192 Will Destiny's video \"Rogan And Hasan Freak Out Over VIRAL Ohio Train Derailment Videos\" reach 200k views or more by 3/06 9 A.M. PST?"}, {"id": "KIMoWzPYfHl3gmVEE1HU", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1679680587135, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1680404874526, "question": "Will Anthony Joshua beat Jermaine Franklin?", "slug": "will-anthony-joshua-beat-jermaine-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-anthony-joshua-beat-jermaine-f", "pool": {"NO": 538.4545454545455, "YES": 24.6551695934574}, "probability": 0.9701695431469375, "p": 0.5982609890955216, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 458, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680404874526, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680390750904, "lastBetTime": 1680390750769, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Joshua and Frankin are scheduled to have a boxing match on April 1st 2023, in London, England.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Joshua wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Franklin wins or the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FrqtBbGLI4i.png?alt=media&token=fe113801-42b3-44ae-9397-7d8cc4dabbe3", "groupSlugs": ["boxing", "combat-sports", "heavyweight-boxing"], "textDescription": "Joshua and Frankin are scheduled to have a boxing match on April 1st 2023, in London, England.\n\nIf Joshua wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Franklin wins or the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "7cjH55vYeVEfjFpIQcKI", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1699406454859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Dave Wasserman have \"seen enough\" in an election and be wrong in 2023?", "slug": "will-dave-wasserman-have-seen-enoug-81602d9efb6d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-dave-wasserman-have-seen-enoug-81602d9efb6d", "pool": {"NO": 102.6030810840821, "YES": 672.5442141124653}, "probability": 0.01513621791672704, "p": 0.0915201919516232, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 557.8102025509933, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704135005698, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704135005958, "lastBetTime": 1704073949688, "lastCommentTime": 1704096733920, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if in 2023, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dave Wasserman ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "calls an election with a post saying \"I've seen enough\", but ultimately ends up being wrong. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sometimes Dave Wasserman (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@Redistrict", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), of the Cook Political Report, tweets \"I've seen enough\", and calls the result of an election based on the returns at that time (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590944022939717633", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1562215504751755264", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1346647684900417536", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), typically before major news networks.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"I've seen enough\" has great accuracy. In fact, Manifold is not aware of any cases it was wrong: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/has-dave-wasserman-ever-seen-enough", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/has-dave-wasserman-ever-seen-enough", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Wasserman describes his approach as making a call at ~98% confidence. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1311862792279003136", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1311862792279003136", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My general approach to \"seeing enough\" on Twitter is to make that declaration at a ~98% personal confidence interval, whereas a media organization might prudently wait to project a race at a ~99%+ confidence interval.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In other words, I'd expect that for every 98 times \"I've seen enough\" ends up being correct, there might be two times it ends up being incorrect.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this to resolve YES, someone must link a qualifying post in the comments. If no such post is linked by January 1, the market will resolve NO; however it will re-resolve to YES in case a qualifying post is later discovered.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "72a0a65c-a1ed-4e1c-905a-8bfadbc33dd9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Conflux/has-dave-wasserman-ever-seen-enough", "image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Has+Dave+Wasserman+ever+%22seen+enough%22+in+an+election+and+been+wrong%3F&numTraders=6&volume=311&probability=14%25&creatorName=Conflux&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252FConflux%252FIaFDTz3rB-.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Dd064eaf3-f07d-4e16-9cdd-373b64a5cd17&resolution=NO&points=K1PCU83MTD5gU8JT_RM2Pm9UwlNaVi4-IljCU-m4YT6jX8JT-JMWPqRfwlNL-DY-CWHCU_WmFD4JYcJTKVwPPg", "title": "Has Dave Wasserman ever \"seen enough\" in an election and been wrong?", "inputKey": "create marketHas Dave Wasserman ever \"seen enough\" in an election and been wrong?UCnpxVUdLOZYgoMsDlHD", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Resolved NO. Sometimes Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict), of the Cook Political Report, tweets \"I've seen enough\", and projects the result of an election based on the returns at that time (example, example, example), typically before major news networks. \n\n\"I've seen enough\" has great accuracy. In fact, from cursory searching, I don't know of any examples where he's predicted wrong. However, I feel like they probably exist? \n\nThis market resolves in a week, and resolves YES if I've been made aware of any instance when Dave Wasserman tweeted \"I've seen enough\" but was wrong. It resolves NO otherwise. I will not be doing any more independent research, and am really hoping someone on this market links me to examples or, even better, a helpful analysis of his hit rate. In addition to profits, I may award tips for sufficiently helpful links! ", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["metaforecasting", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if in 2023, Dave Wasserman calls an election with a post saying \"I've seen enough\", but ultimately ends up being wrong. Otherwise NO.\n\nBackground\n\nSometimes Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict), of the Cook Political Report, tweets \"I've seen enough\", and calls the result of an election based on the returns at that time (example, example, example), typically before major news networks.\n\n\"I've seen enough\" has great accuracy. In fact, Manifold is not aware of any cases it was wrong: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/has-dave-wasserman-ever-seen-enough\n\nWasserman describes his approach as making a call at ~98% confidence. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1311862792279003136\n\nMy general approach to \"seeing enough\" on Twitter is to make that declaration at a ~98% personal confidence interval, whereas a media organization might prudently wait to project a race at a ~99%+ confidence interval.\n\nIn other words, I'd expect that for every 98 times \"I've seen enough\" ends up being correct, there might be two times it ends up being incorrect.\n\nDetails\n\nFor this to resolve YES, someone must link a qualifying post in the comments. If no such post is linked by January 1, the market will resolve NO; however it will re-resolve to YES in case a qualifying post is later discovered.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "hbrvkJucl53kaLvDue9m", "creatorId": "cpb5lKFeEofRCpEFxBzZW4oC0SF3", "creatorUsername": "kinabets", "creatorName": "kina", "createdTime": 1698677611888, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkinabets%2FXO27Gpp-pz.jpeg?alt=media&token=99df33c2-397a-4e16-8067-7a67007f4b14", "closeTime": 1699210961898, "question": "Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the Brazillian GP 2023?", "slug": "will-lewis-hamilton-finish-on-the-p-c4f03644ef08", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kinabets/will-lewis-hamilton-finish-on-the-p-c4f03644ef08", "pool": {"NO": 2.9910269534047176, "YES": 700.744420986467}, "probability": 0.010238834272177706, "p": 0.7079090797829957, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1842.2241031167491, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699210965350, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699210803810, "lastBetTime": 1699210803592, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "w3X6rGc1kqrw914Hii9o", "creatorId": "Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682", "creatorUsername": "pea", "creatorName": "pea", "createdTime": 1693850056967, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fpea%2Fars5TkbLMX.jpeg?alt=media&token=776ffe6e-5d47-479b-9a88-6960dc109946", "closeTime": 1703603132604, "question": "Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2024 playoffs?", "slug": "will-the-miami-dolphins-make-the-pl", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pea/will-the-miami-dolphins-make-the-pl", "pool": {"NO": 3154.162126690392, "YES": 77.94137390802564}, "probability": 0.9926852353256327, "p": 0.77029851101182, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3786.4096418649597, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703603137783, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703572854610, "lastBetTime": 1703572854494, "lastCommentTime": 1703572844554, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["miami-dolphins", "nfl"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "ZJDPRcnxQlsBFYYWiSYq", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700784538812, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700866800000, "question": "Will BNB close higher on November 24 than it closed on November 23?", "slug": "will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-2-a78d18f498c0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-november-2-a78d18f498c0", "pool": {"NO": 308.8695922886427, "YES": 167.63789410563678}, "probability": 0.6736475242414244, "p": 0.5283735112542033, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3240.8951463884086, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700877238199, "resolutionProbability": 0.67, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700900840822, "lastBetTime": 1700862662916, "lastCommentTime": 1700900839508, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "233.8213", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $233.8213\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "n1oKFz7Mqpi7WgR87HoV", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1669323358746, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1670241785026, "question": "Will Vaush mention Destiny's canvassing operation in Georgia by the end of the year?", "slug": "will-vaush-mention-destinys-canvass", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaush-mention-destinys-canvass", "pool": {"NO": 3842.3101578460055, "YES": 89.35579993178624}, "probability": 0.9880196956775235, "p": 0.6572888755769439, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3940.3156511846746, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1670241785026, "resolutionProbability": 0.9293167883738799, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218607194, "lastBetTime": 1670241654538, "lastCommentTime": 1670382359990, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can be on stream or on Twitter.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bear in mind although Vaush has a ban on talking about Destiny these days, he did recently dunk on Alex Stein and kind of defended Destiny in the Twitter replies of the clip of Stein harassing Destiny.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market resolves when Vaush talks about Destiny's Georgia canvassing operation (however briefly) and if he doesn't, then market closes by year's end as a NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FEY2EaVnU-j.png?alt=media&token=cd058852-a003-420f-a071-093dd9b6ee39", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "Can be on stream or on Twitter.\n\nBear in mind although Vaush has a ban on talking about Destiny these days, he did recently dunk on Alex Stein and kind of defended Destiny in the Twitter replies of the clip of Stein harassing Destiny.\n\nMarket resolves when Vaush talks about Destiny's Georgia canvassing operation (however briefly) and if he doesn't, then market closes by year's end as a NO."}, {"id": "jhnmhe88WiXDab58E2Jw", "creatorId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "creatorUsername": "DAL59", "creatorName": "DAL59", "createdTime": 1663094104821, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1669240503644, "question": "Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?", "slug": "will-an-ai-that-can-win-a-game-of-d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-an-ai-that-can-win-a-game-of-d", "pool": {"NO": 1224.158488543571, "YES": 172.8580395601881}, "probability": 0.9647042349354655, "p": 0.7942146800594081, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2156.6344674976517, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1669240503644, "resolutionProbability": 0.9647042349354655, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1669205408402, "lastBetTime": 1669205407134, "lastCommentTime": 1669143757271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must use the classic Diplomacy map and rules.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"White-press\" means that players can send messages to any other player during the game, but the messages are non-anonymous and tagged by the sending player.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 14, 10:00am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will an AI that can win a game of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technical-ai-timelines", "please-resolve", "free-money"], "textDescription": "Must use the classic Diplomacy map and rules.\n\n\"White-press\" means that players can send messages to any other player during the game, but the messages are non-anonymous and tagged by the sending player.\n\nSep 14, 10:00am: Will an AI that can win a game of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030? \u2192 Will an AI that can win a tournament of Diplomacy (with white-press) as often as top human players in games against 6 human players exist by the end of 2030?"}, {"id": "ZDr0VkY9bd4hqdWoG7pq", "creatorId": "UJSbvX4oBRVfS1f5plXJ5Uc1LeZ2", "creatorUsername": "Radicalia", "creatorName": "Radicalia", "createdTime": 1682791451005, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRadicalia%2FRiJ4vQgdLK.jpeg?alt=media&token=8f28c1f2-f50b-4180-aba5-e00750294173", "closeTime": 1686339975824, "question": "Will Trump be indicted again before Election Day 2024?", "slug": "will-trump-be-indicted-again-before", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Radicalia/will-trump-be-indicted-again-before", "pool": {"NO": 10721.120956566368, "YES": 143.04690778048644}, "probability": 0.9979647417663007, "p": 0.8674153762493845, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 19145.798397351256, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686339975824, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686339966211, "lastBetTime": 1686339965812, "lastCommentTime": 1686294894526, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Only counting US jurisdictions. \"Again\" meaning after the March/April 2023 indictment of Trump by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-us-presidential-election"], "textDescription": "Only counting US jurisdictions. \"Again\" meaning after the March/April 2023 indictment of Trump by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. "}, {"id": "2a1OQ4qVA76WADG9tOEh", "creatorId": "doWt4Q3WkYUm45ydXk9pAOWFRRD3", "creatorUsername": "june", "creatorName": "june", "createdTime": 1696268760921, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjune%2F98tJH9kbXD.jpeg?alt=media&token=b0d6b072-6990-4bb0-9d92-77113145e88a", "closeTime": 1696506845922, "question": "If Fantano reviews Wallsocket by underscores, will he give it a 7 or above?", "slug": "if-fantano-reviews-wallsocket-by-un", "url": "https://manifold.markets/june/if-fantano-reviews-wallsocket-by-un", "pool": {"NO": 298.3406561716207, "YES": 43.0731178254491}, "probability": 0.9092791779222783, "p": 0.5913450141882882, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 224.72458396327397, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696506845922, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696496580353, "lastBetTime": 1696496550748, "lastCommentTime": 1696496578593, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If light 7 or above, resolves YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If lower, resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he gives it multiple scores that are on either side of this threshold or there are for any reason decent arguments for both a YES and a NO resolution, I'll resolve N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he doesn't review it by close, N/A", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5"], "textDescription": "If light 7 or above, resolves YES\n\nIf lower, resolves NO\n\nIf he gives it multiple scores that are on either side of this threshold or there are for any reason decent arguments for both a YES and a NO resolution, I'll resolve N/A\n\nIf he doesn't review it by close, N/A"}, {"id": "d3ZCZdESBrtkCMe5OFMt", "creatorId": "zLKdvySlYYXoLE9rGqHwmCDYdW53", "creatorUsername": "whalelang", "creatorName": "whale", "createdTime": 1695806315122, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwhalelang%2FHIyXM8rqFA.jpeg?alt=media&token=44b77519-61d7-4220-a762-57d90ca81b05", "closeTime": 1704159184840, "question": "Will x.com require users to pay to use the platform by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-xcom-require-users-to-pay-to-u", "url": "https://manifold.markets/whalelang/will-xcom-require-users-to-pay-to-u", "pool": {"NO": 500.6599050011429, "YES": 3331.4127758916175}, "probability": 0.018749968179756615, "p": 0.11280435964818572, "totalLiquidity": 670, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4395.3335688149655, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704159184840, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "zLKdvySlYYXoLE9rGqHwmCDYdW53", "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710221948831, "lastBetTime": 1704158706349, "lastCommentTime": 1697598887218, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk has mentioned offhandedly that the platform will consider moving towards a subscription model for all users in order to combat bots. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See video:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/Sea-Uxw5Syg?si=XtaCwWKRgxtQAray", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/Sea-Uxw5Syg?si=XtaCwWKRgxtQAray", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market does not resolve N/A. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At any point before January 1st, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "twitter.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://twitter.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " requires ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "all users, existing or new", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", to pay any amount of money to do ANY of the following: post, comment, repost, quote post, like, bookmark or view posts on the platform.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " The resolution should be interpreted to mean \"anything free users could previously do (as of today September 27th, 2023) but can no longer do without paying a fee\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A release of new premium features that add functionality to the platform that did not already exist do not count. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently paywalled features such a subscription posts or other premium features do not count. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " requires users to pay..", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "becomes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "x.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://x.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " requires ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "all users, existing or new,", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " to pay..", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "social-media"], "textDescription": "Elon Musk has mentioned offhandedly that the platform will consider moving towards a subscription model for all users in order to combat bots. \n\nSee video:\n\nhttps://youtu.be/Sea-Uxw5Syg?si=XtaCwWKRgxtQAray\n\nThis market does not resolve N/A. \n\nResolves YES if:\n\nAt any point before January 1st, 2024, twitter.com or x.com requires all users, existing or new, to pay any amount of money to do ANY of the following: post, comment, repost, quote post, like, bookmark or view posts on the platform.\n\n The resolution should be interpreted to mean \"anything free users could previously do (as of today September 27th, 2023) but can no longer do without paying a fee\"\n\nA release of new premium features that add functionality to the platform that did not already exist do not count. \n\nCurrently paywalled features such a subscription posts or other premium features do not count. \n\nResolves NO otherwise. \n\nEdit:\n\n... x.com requires users to pay..\n\nbecomes\n\n... x.com requires all users, existing or new, to pay.."}, {"id": "1nc55m2RY1TxU1Mf5j15", "creatorId": "kWaGR0qpiUNQTO6j3KHH19CRyAt1", "creatorUsername": "JohnBrown", "creatorName": "JFB WorldWide", "createdTime": 1691938217150, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJohnBrown%2F8XuDqMdj35.jpeg?alt=media&token=01e7d943-f7c9-4350-968c-2b4640ce3a62", "closeTime": 1697941297287, "question": "Will TCU win 9 or more football games in the 2023-2024 season?", "slug": "will-tcu-win-9-or-more-football-gam", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JohnBrown/will-tcu-win-9-or-more-football-gam", "pool": {"NO": 52.959310204696834, "YES": 317.7054108497392}, "probability": 0.09000000000000001, "p": 0.37237668269915036, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 329.8962895479211, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697941297287, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206955049, "lastBetTime": 1696823373606, "lastCommentTime": 1692455710173, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": ":Last season TCU went 12-0 in the regular season, losing only in the national championship. College football programs change rapidly, and Sports Illustrated predicts a 9-3 finish for this season. Is SI underrating this team?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question resolves no later than after the Oklahoma game November 24th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if TCU wins 7 or fewer games before 11/24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if TCU wins 9 or more games before 11/24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to season schedule:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2628", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2628", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "62166a14-15bf-4c20-a3db-5fe72c0dac19", "url": "https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2628", "image": "https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/2628.png", "title": "2023 TCU Horned Frogs Schedule | ESPN", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Visit ESPN to view the TCU Horned Frogs team schedule for the current and previous seasons", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "college-football"], "textDescription": ":Last season TCU went 12-0 in the regular season, losing only in the national championship. College football programs change rapidly, and Sports Illustrated predicts a 9-3 finish for this season. Is SI underrating this team?\n\nQuestion resolves no later than after the Oklahoma game November 24th.\n\nResolves NO if TCU wins 7 or fewer games before 11/24.\n\nResolves YES if TCU wins 9 or more games before 11/24.\n\nLink to season schedule:\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2628\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "5kWGA4Cz1S6E6f6wEVOS", "creatorId": "wmFT1FgPDnNH5FJoW7q3adQiwov1", "creatorUsername": "MicahCohen", "creatorName": "Micah Cohen", "createdTime": 1650765335063, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjjwUH5w3KHDLMtyS-u2qBGJS5E6roq4J0sbJCecw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706860740000, "question": "Will Michelle Obama hold a political office by Feb 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-michelle-obama-hold-a-politica", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MicahCohen/will-michelle-obama-hold-a-politica", "pool": {"NO": 191.3143320647959, "YES": 5413.489264686741}, "probability": 0.003198669962026257, "p": 0.08324249192681517, "totalLiquidity": 261.82026142019123, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5554.853885473556, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713022573078, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706860740000, "lastBetTime": 1706859861429, "lastCommentTime": 1650810366342, "description": "Yes if you think \ud83e\udd14 Michelle will hold a political office (whether elected or appointed).\n\nClose date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm", "textDescription": "Yes if you think \ud83e\udd14 Michelle will hold a political office (whether elected or appointed).\n\nClose date updated to 2024-02-01 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "DsBX8fOjGyxkG3WOEgos", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1681012381819, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1681624491458, "question": "Will Ion Cutelaba beat Tanner Boser?", "slug": "will-ion-cutelaba-beat-tanner-boser", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ion-cutelaba-beat-tanner-boser", "pool": {"NO": 14149.016292401195, "YES": 12.584814269592243}, "probability": 0.9996527375314956, "p": 0.7191345684626271, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14021.265181061379, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1681624491458, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1681624484519, "lastBetTime": 1681624483325, "lastCommentTime": 1681610676217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ion and Tanner are scheduled to fight on April 15th at a UFC event in Kansas City, Missouri.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Ion wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Tanner wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRGTF4ufCrF.png?alt=media&token=bd6db8d9-bd5c-4942-8463-bfa609e69af2", "groupSlugs": ["ufc", "mma", "combat-sports"], "textDescription": "Ion and Tanner are scheduled to fight on April 15th at a UFC event in Kansas City, Missouri.\n\nIf Ion wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Tanner wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "GYQFh8jawnfnPnWm4gdQ", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1674778109067, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1676928518023, "question": "February 2023: Will Joe Biden visit Ukraine?", "slug": "february-2023-will-joe-biden-visit-023f863f3f9b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/february-2023-will-joe-biden-visit-023f863f3f9b", "pool": {"NO": 5582.057980299979, "YES": 50.076478647324436}, "probability": 0.998977202215887, "p": 0.8975623960333294, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6308.968216169732, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1676928518023, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1676923168073, "lastBetTime": 1676923166852, "lastCommentTime": 1675070620850, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FbuXmGOulXj.png?alt=media&token=c5998c45-7161-4a67-b46d-22e70fc8928f", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u27a1\ufe0f check out ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomek's Specials", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/tomeks-specials", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "! \ud83d\ude0e", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "[image]\ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\udde6\n\u27a1\ufe0f check out Tomek's Specials! \ud83d\ude0e"}, {"id": "mmC4jqZvLxRQp7PZfrVC", "creatorId": "Wusc2mKHH3RuthNKkso1ITQOMEM2", "creatorUsername": "cosmicsnorlax", "creatorName": "michael", "createdTime": 1674088349038, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fcosmicsnorlax%2FOEM30P0Whs.jpg?alt=media&token=25fcab1a-c15d-413f-b978-21769e2b5e88", "closeTime": 1696222740000, "question": "Will the average length of a 9-inning Major League Baseball game be less than 2:45 during the 2023 regular season?", "slug": "will-the-average-length-of-a-9innin", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cosmicsnorlax/will-the-average-length-of-a-9innin", "pool": {"NO": 3131.579383345156, "YES": 112.28634684716337}, "probability": 0.9767331145522288, "p": 0.6008341265908507, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3956.2695314961816, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696228030450, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696200202625, "lastBetTime": 1696200202494, "lastCommentTime": 1681148658177, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Major League Baseball has introduced significant rule changes to improve pace of play during the 2023 season.  The league has introduced a pitch clock, limited defensive shifting, and made the bases larger. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to Baseball Reference, the average 9-inning game length was 3:03 during the 2022 regular season. An average game length less than 2:45 would be a decrease of over 18 minutes per game.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to ESPN, use of the pitch clock during the 2022 MiLB season reduced the length of an average 9-inning game by 25 minutes, from 3:03 to 2:38. The article claims that MLB would like to replicate this effect in the upcoming season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34690249/pitch-clock-cut-minor-league-games-25-minutes-two-hours-38-minutes?platform=amp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34690249/pitch-clock-cut-minor-league-games-25-minutes-two-hours-38-minutes?platform=amp", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve at the end of the 2023 MLB regular season based on the Baseball Reference data here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve YES if the Time/9I column reads less than 2:45 for the 2023 regular season. If the column reads 2:45 or more, the market will resolve NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["baseball", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Major League Baseball has introduced significant rule changes to improve pace of play during the 2023 season.  The league has introduced a pitch clock, limited defensive shifting, and made the bases larger. \n\nhttps://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2023-rule-changes-pitch-timer-larger-bases-shifts\n\nAccording to Baseball Reference, the average 9-inning game length was 3:03 during the 2022 regular season. An average game length less than 2:45 would be a decrease of over 18 minutes per game.\n\nhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml\n\nAccording to ESPN, use of the pitch clock during the 2022 MiLB season reduced the length of an average 9-inning game by 25 minutes, from 3:03 to 2:38. The article claims that MLB would like to replicate this effect in the upcoming season.\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34690249/pitch-clock-cut-minor-league-games-25-minutes-two-hours-38-minutes?platform=amp\n\nThis market will resolve at the end of the 2023 MLB regular season based on the Baseball Reference data here:\n\nhttps://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/misc.shtml\n\nThe market will resolve YES if the Time/9I column reads less than 2:45 for the 2023 regular season. If the column reads 2:45 or more, the market will resolve NO. "}, {"id": "1Dww1sehXczyncfwnI2a", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1697106576014, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697707800000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-a44812783fb9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-a44812783fb9", "pool": {"NO": 151.0528622780684, "YES": 145.81407669242523}, "probability": 0.48, "p": 0.47119687404114224, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 315.94012746663685, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697711175304, "resolutionProbability": 0.48, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462483196, "lastBetTime": 1697706363144, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "sccsq4", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "8eEBy0RXE96MMhmhTrV4", "creatorId": "xSB92N0T1aaunSfQolylHbGxCI72", "creatorUsername": "Heliscone", "creatorName": "Heliscone", "createdTime": 1683354507682, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1Av7f9VfKmifohtK3purGKF2jmhG8vhQEHoh-h=s96-c", "closeTime": 1683593308736, "question": "Will the Anaheim Ducks win the NHL Draft Lottery?", "slug": "will-the-anaheim-ducks-win-the-nhl", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Heliscone/will-the-anaheim-ducks-win-the-nhl", "pool": {"NO": 3.6020217918344315, "YES": 4109.285714285714}, "probability": 0.0006254700030799751, "p": 0.4165694282380396, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4053, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683593308736, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683593278915, "lastBetTime": 1683593278770, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday, 5PM PST. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tankathon.com/nhl", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tankathon.com/nhl", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FSHmepa5YCv.png?alt=media&token=77623a4a-cf08-4364-9ad2-779d72ca3801", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Monday, 5PM PST. \n\nhttps://www.tankathon.com/nhl"}, {"id": "nzFfBh0t7IXXydapvRgt", "creatorId": "5FRQJL3X8POfU30Hfjd4FaGx55u1", "creatorUsername": "Svenbonne", "creatorName": "Svenbonne", "createdTime": 1670711506562, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7f7J4ywVaGRQmdvtjud1XrvyMRjMLv7Bq9FEoG7rM=s96-c", "closeTime": 1671836340000, "question": "Will there be \"white christmas\" in Hamburg this year?", "slug": "will-there-be-white-christmas-in-ha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Svenbonne/will-there-be-white-christmas-in-ha", "pool": {"NO": 156.58348000181766, "YES": 1078.8919702358216}, "probability": 0.04566651608716458, "p": 0.24795529905722474, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1007.0609453055531, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1671918076609, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671835271575, "lastBetTime": 1671835271462, "lastCommentTime": 1671827454133, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It will resolve Yes, if I (living in the metropolitan area of Hamburg) see snow on the 24th of Dezember 2022. In the last 50 Years we had 10 white christmases.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "15.12.2022 Prediction:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FX0S9yIv142.jpg?alt=media&token=e9dce3b3-dd97-4e22-a7d4-417cba6fce7b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 15, 3:46pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be \"white christmas\" in Hamburg this year?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will there be \"white christmas\" in Hamburg this year?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2NKvmPOrh_.png?alt=media&token=f4510a58-18fd-46a6-9ba0-65bc3166ab75", "groupSlugs": ["weather", "germany"], "textDescription": "It will resolve Yes, if I (living in the metropolitan area of Hamburg) see snow on the 24th of Dezember 2022. In the last 50 Years we had 10 white christmases.\n\n15.12.2022 Prediction:\n\n[image]Dec 15, 3:46pm: Will there be \"white christmas\" in Hamburg this year? \u2192 Will there be \"white christmas\" in Hamburg this year?"}, {"id": "RYb7BJiHDAx0Ajxk2mfL", "creatorId": "QK4oUfRnpccNTbW0poOWff7Dmhx2", "creatorUsername": "jbjonas", "creatorName": "jbjonas", "createdTime": 1697619560432, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJAAq_kI9jQOUD9-eNNv-b3NycIyuwXKkyzB931G9gZwc8=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will PIA release a VPN client version that supports Split Tunneling for macOS 13 before the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-pia-release-a-vpn-client-versi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jbjonas/will-pia-release-a-vpn-client-versi", "pool": {"NO": 35.15151515151517, "YES": 185}, "probability": 0.08410428931875523, "p": 0.32581895033462466, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 115, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704066890993, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "QK4oUfRnpccNTbW0poOWff7Dmhx2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704066891205, "lastBetTime": 1703924241820, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On October 11, 2023 Private Internet Access released version 3.5.1 of their VPN client.  It finally supports macOS with universal builds for x86_64 and arm64.  However, this version has disabled the Split Tunnel feature on macOS 12 or greater.  This question will resolve to YES if PIA releases a newer version of their VPN client that supports this feature on macOS 13 (Ventura) before January 1, 2024.  ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.privateinternetaccess.com/pages/changelog", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.privateinternetaccess.com/pages/changelog", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["internet", "apple", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "On October 11, 2023 Private Internet Access released version 3.5.1 of their VPN client.  It finally supports macOS with universal builds for x86_64 and arm64.  However, this version has disabled the Split Tunnel feature on macOS 12 or greater.  This question will resolve to YES if PIA releases a newer version of their VPN client that supports this feature on macOS 13 (Ventura) before January 1, 2024.  https://www.privateinternetaccess.com/pages/changelog\n\n"}, {"id": "C2qDamdsNan9kmBSFGpQ", "creatorId": "V7GUR8MYyFT8ytxdDUBroNEwqA53", "creatorUsername": "BramStolk", "creatorName": "Bram Stolk", "createdTime": 1661796337521, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucqBHBv9ThohBvwh1UPOjR2PBHXCyQaX4kF34eoC4Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1662300000000, "question": "Will Max Verstappen win the Dutch Grand Prix Formula 1 race?", "slug": "will-max-verstappen-win-the-dutch-g", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BramStolk/will-max-verstappen-win-the-dutch-g", "pool": {"NO": 315.8390576036695, "YES": 31.66169528199549}, "probability": 0.9088874052240893, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 399.5024297332676, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1662306789408, "resolutionProbability": 0.5052138961520526, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1662299198064, "lastBetTime": 1662299196781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On Sep 4, Formula 1 races in the Netherlands, on the Zandvoort track.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Max Verstappen, championship leader, win his home race?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if he finishes the race in P1.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://www.formula1.com/content/dam/fom-website/races/2022/race-listing/Netherlands.jpg.transform/9col/image.jpg", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "On Sep 4, Formula 1 races in the Netherlands, on the Zandvoort track.\n\nWill Max Verstappen, championship leader, win his home race?\n\nThis question will resolve YES if he finishes the race in P1.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "XtOuro6OXb0VebJpah3G", "creatorId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "creatorUsername": "howahlah", "creatorName": "howahlah", "createdTime": 1707160180438, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhowahlah%2FIo-WKZQAT4.webp?alt=media&token=dc3be555-03e2-4b4b-806a-8ad38ae98918", "closeTime": 1707978409260, "question": "Will 'Madame Web' (2024) get a CinemaScore of B+ or higher?", "slug": "will-madame-web-2024-get-a-cinemasc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-madame-web-2024-get-a-cinemasc", "pool": {"NO": 10.969393393503196, "YES": 8419.985472369588}, "probability": 0.0009089781498057233, "p": 0.4111954359208772, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8284.24450978854, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707978409260, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707978409902, "lastBetTime": 1707978373232, "lastCommentTime": 1707950043776, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if 'Madame Web' (2024) receives a CinemaScore of B+, A-, A, or A+.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore (B or lower).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if no CinemaScore is published by the closing date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cinemascore.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used as the source of truth for this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CinemaScores of other movies in Sony's Spider-Man Universe:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Venom (2018): B+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Venom: Let There Be Carnage (2021): B+", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Morbius (2022): C+", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/howahlah%2F928d51dea47e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "movies", "television-film", "boxoffice", "hollywood", "media-rating-futures", "cinema"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if 'Madame Web' (2024) receives a CinemaScore of B+, A-, A, or A+.\n\nResolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore (B or lower).\n\nResolves N/A if no CinemaScore is published by the closing date.\n\nhttps://www.cinemascore.com/ will be used as the source of truth for this market.\n\nCinemaScores of other movies in Sony's Spider-Man Universe:\n\nVenom (2018): B+\n\nVenom: Let There Be Carnage (2021): B+\n\nMorbius (2022): C+"}, {"id": "KvvscXjSURsiKF9on2xP", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703080429962, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703286000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 22 than it closed on December 21?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6ae8ef33f1bc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-2-6ae8ef33f1bc", "pool": {"NO": 191.3854003204196, "YES": 147.72792555784315}, "probability": 0.5763322943230693, "p": 0.5122020774293368, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 301.48854969745827, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703291495266, "resolutionProbability": 0.58, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703291491656, "lastBetTime": 1703285491006, "lastCommentTime": 1703291490962, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F6ea27970f074.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "N8K3UmdFayN5bD0DhUyZ", "creatorId": "EWQ8opj5cZg46jsjlXCJsAk2Xpj2", "creatorUsername": "elibutchad", "creatorName": "Eli but Chad", "createdTime": 1670957604147, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Felibutchad%2F2pSRjKONzf.15?alt=media&token=84d5a63c-36b7-46e7-9758-3d2e1ce647c3", "closeTime": 1678836106131, "question": "Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?", "slug": "will-gpt4-be-released-before-march", "url": "https://manifold.markets/elibutchad/will-gpt4-be-released-before-march", "pool": {"NO": 68483.13147497579, "YES": 354.9448687981919}, "probability": 0.9975221384689393, "p": 0.6760106488688095, "totalLiquidity": 1990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 465204.5839687286, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678836106131, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 860, "lastUpdatedTime": 1678836089676, "lastBetTime": 1678835752781, "lastCommentTime": 1678836084914, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Any release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution based on my best judgment.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 14, 5:46pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 4, 12:50pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtRg7i5ETaA.png?alt=media&token=9c309b97-d0d0-44ed-bed9-7b140680f8af", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "ai", "gpt4-speculation"], "textDescription": "Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. counts.\n\nScreenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.\nAny release before the end of March 31st (PST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).\n\nRelease must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.\nResolution based on my best judgment.\n\nDec 14, 5:46pm: Will GPT4 be released before March 31th, 2023? \u2192 Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023?\n\nFeb 4, 12:50pm: Will GPT-4 be released before March 31th, 2023? \u2192 Will GPT-4 be released before March 31st, 2023?"}, {"id": "In9iiDVzufQ111gMSXrZ", "creatorId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "creatorUsername": "JoeBrenton", "creatorName": "Joe Brenton", "createdTime": 1684236631393, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoeBrenton%2F7EBF6000-151E-4A4A-B4F9-28650910EC6E.jpeg?alt=media&token=ae4013bc-6a40-4643-9a58-3b7a49276e37", "closeTime": 1697432340000, "question": "Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk has been developed by October 15, 2023?", "slug": "will-tyler-cowen-agree-that-an-actu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-tyler-cowen-agree-that-an-actu", "pool": {"NO": 2592.357379507483, "YES": 61902.4566475632}, "probability": 0.017975553512061076, "p": 0.3041503878178032, "totalLiquidity": 6895, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 83826.56049669422, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697447652448, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 164, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700488250314, "lastBetTime": 1697431003659, "lastCommentTime": 1700488248638, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if Tyler Cowen publicly acknowledges, by October 15 2023, that an actual mathematical model of AI X-Risk has been developed. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two clips from the conversation:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxtf8ZD3FSvs8TAM2lhqlWvRh7xo7bISkp", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxtf8ZD3FSvs8TAM2lhqlWvRh7xo7bISkp", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...But, I mean, here would be my initial response to Eliezer. I've been inviting people who share his view simply to join the discourse. So, they have the sense, 'Oh, we've been writing up these concerns for 20 years and no one listens to us.' My view is quite different. I put out a call and asked a lot of people I know, well-informed people, '", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Is there any actual mathematical model of this process of how the world is supposed to end?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "'", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So, if you look, say, at COVID or climate change fears, in both cases, there are many models you can look at, including--and then models with data. I'm not saying you have to like those models. But the point is: there's something you look at and then you make up your mind whether or not you like those models; and then they're tested against data...", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx4msoNRn5ryBWhrIZS-oQml8NpStT_FEU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx4msoNRn5ryBWhrIZS-oQml8NpStT_FEU", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "...So, when it comes to AGI and existential risk, it turns out as best I can ascertain, ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "in the 20 years or so we've been talking about this seriously, there isn't a single model done", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ". Period. Flat out.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So, I don't think any idea should be dismissed. I've just been inviting those individuals to actually join the discourse of science. '", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Show us your models. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Let us see their assumptions and let's talk about those.'...", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai-alignment"], "textDescription": "On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk.\n\nhttps://www.econtalk.org/tyler-cowen-on-the-risks-and-impact-of-artificial-intelligence/\n\nThis market resolves to \"YES\" if Tyler Cowen publicly acknowledges, by October 15 2023, that an actual mathematical model of AI X-Risk has been developed. \n\nTwo clips from the conversation:\n\nhttps://youtube.com/clip/Ugkxtf8ZD3FSvs8TAM2lhqlWvRh7xo7bISkp\n\n...But, I mean, here would be my initial response to Eliezer. I've been inviting people who share his view simply to join the discourse. So, they have the sense, 'Oh, we've been writing up these concerns for 20 years and no one listens to us.' My view is quite different. I put out a call and asked a lot of people I know, well-informed people, 'Is there any actual mathematical model of this process of how the world is supposed to end?'\n\nSo, if you look, say, at COVID or climate change fears, in both cases, there are many models you can look at, including--and then models with data. I'm not saying you have to like those models. But the point is: there's something you look at and then you make up your mind whether or not you like those models; and then they're tested against data...\n\nhttps://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx4msoNRn5ryBWhrIZS-oQml8NpStT_FEU\n\n...So, when it comes to AGI and existential risk, it turns out as best I can ascertain, in the 20 years or so we've been talking about this seriously, there isn't a single model done. Period. Flat out.\n\nSo, I don't think any idea should be dismissed. I've just been inviting those individuals to actually join the discourse of science. 'Show us your models. Let us see their assumptions and let's talk about those.'...\n\n"}, {"id": "C8DKb94Kh7dGRm2IRWN1", "creatorId": "4pTwnLvz5yP1K8A67vrD3iusz1E2", "creatorUsername": "VivaLaPanda", "creatorName": "VivaLaPanda", "createdTime": 1671673501297, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAdrianSmith%2Fcool_eye_thing.jpeg?alt=media&token=27cc8887-3ae5-4d0d-ae16-276f17b9c90e", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023", "slug": "will-apple-release-an-ar-headset-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/VivaLaPanda/will-apple-release-an-ar-headset-in", "pool": {"NO": 235.2691974382892, "YES": 14122.368427800691}, "probability": 0.016760358294365882, "p": 0.5057368605790274, "totalLiquidity": 2030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 223829.8784450864, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704147302074, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 275, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704147302777, "lastBetTime": 1704065336188, "lastCommentTime": 1704147297733, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must actually be available for purchase sometime in 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 18, 8:13pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Apple release an AR headset in 2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fe95G3-7UJZ.png?alt=media&token=fe6d37c0-1e25-4389-ae6c-2a2934299ae9", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "There have been rumors about Apple releasing an AR headset for years. Will 2023 be the year it finally comes out? \n\nhttps://www.tomsguide.com/news/apple-vr-and-mixed-reality-headset-release-date-price-specs-and-leaks\n\nResolution criteria:\n\nMust actually be available for purchase sometime in 2023. \n\nJan 18, 8:13pm: Will Apple release an AR headset in 2023 \u2192 Will Apple release an AR/Mixed Reality headset in 2023"}, {"id": "NNUuATHQTTIurb1GRd7n", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1711563850028, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1712005221685, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-index-decreas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-index-decreas", "pool": {"NO": 289.99999999999994, "YES": 79.5958145776938}, "probability": 0.8522047153041011, "p": 0.6127957276436587, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 150, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712005221685, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712005221685, "lastBetTime": 1711630921906, "lastCommentTime": 1712005214639, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russell 2000", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "russel-2000"], "textDescription": "Will The Russell 2000 Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe official source used is *Google Finance\n\nRussell 2000\n\nDaily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nNote: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.\n"}, {"id": "V3zKE7KJSiDxtzIdJG1n", "creatorId": "EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2", "creatorUsername": "jknowak", "creatorName": "Jake", "createdTime": 1673963060427, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjknowak%2FBRRp3nEZaN.39?alt=media&token=454f0df4-c02c-434c-9760-372e56f4ab6c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will EU ban fur farming by the end of 2023", "slug": "will-eu-ban-fur-farming-by-the-end", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jknowak/will-eu-ban-fur-farming-by-the-end", "pool": {"NO": 145.8781803494724, "YES": 1621.4207689515779}, "probability": 0.043769189484963666, "p": 0.3372031389774038, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1595.1586917937534, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704377167730, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "EWQomLxotNQffxOlqJygV7XkbGL2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704377167919, "lastBetTime": 1704062466370, "lastCommentTime": 1704317299981, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There's a citizen initiative called Fur Free Europe currently collecting statements from citizens in support of union-wide ban on fur farming ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/initiatives/details/2022/000002_en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/initiatives/details/2022/000002_en", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves YES if EU mandates union-wide ban on fur farming (fur farming of any kind being illegal) any point by end of 2023 (actual implementation/vacatio legis may take longer).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FLJewCSC-nB.png?alt=media&token=3b32d9c8-4267-4717-9bf3-0c2dfffcc197", "groupSlugs": ["animal-welfare", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "There's a citizen initiative called Fur Free Europe currently collecting statements from citizens in support of union-wide ban on fur farming https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/initiatives/details/2022/000002_en \n\nThe question resolves YES if EU mandates union-wide ban on fur farming (fur farming of any kind being illegal) any point by end of 2023 (actual implementation/vacatio legis may take longer).\n\nThe question resolves NO otherwise."}, {"id": "cRccyLz0QwK85HJo8S8N", "creatorId": "KWPeZvwJRqP0uvKGvI6S1F6AOmh2", "creatorUsername": "LukeW", "creatorName": "LukeW", "createdTime": 1651388223750, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLukeW%2Fims1iFsInW.png?alt=media&token=ee62fbda-2835-4af9-b90a-defe115a34f8", "closeTime": 1651850360341, "question": "Was Olivia the most popular girls name in the U.S. in 2021?", "slug": "was-olivia-the-most-popular-girls-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LukeW/was-olivia-the-most-popular-girls-n", "pool": {"NO": 143.66794817360517, "YES": 63.4367924986264}, "probability": 0.5580682242289278, "p": 0.35798168599684244, "totalLiquidity": 103.63137700539133, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 147, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1651850360341, "resolutionProbability": 0.5580682242289278, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1651850346162, "lastBetTime": 1651580084302, "lastCommentTime": 1651850342210, "description": "Traditionally the US Social Security Agency releases on the Friday before Mother's Day the list of the most popular names of the previous year. This market resolves to \"YES\" if the more girls were named Olivia than any other name in 2021 according to the SSA.\n\nMay 1, 10:55am: Olivia was the number one ranked name in 2019 and 2020.\n\nMay 2, 3:03pm: Boys name market here: https://manifold.markets/thebaysix/was-liam-the-most-popular-boys-name", "textDescription": "Traditionally the US Social Security Agency releases on the Friday before Mother's Day the list of the most popular names of the previous year. This market resolves to \"YES\" if the more girls were named Olivia than any other name in 2021 according to the SSA.\n\nMay 1, 10:55am: Olivia was the number one ranked name in 2019 and 2020.\n\nMay 2, 3:03pm: Boys name market here: https://manifold.markets/thebaysix/was-liam-the-most-popular-boys-name"}, {"id": "2qo9zE0nApMqrT2fpbmO", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700265751806, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700841600000, "question": "Will Siemens close higher november 24th than the close of november 17th? (Weekly Market)", "slug": "will-siemens-close-higher-november-2371704f6a75", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-november-2371704f6a75", "pool": {"NO": 799.2568399822693, "YES": 97.8455215693121}, "probability": 0.9698835771587193, "p": 0.7976729109747832, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1007.1597626070331, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700853191176, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222333775, "lastBetTime": 1700840282296, "lastCommentTime": 1700853186801, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fq1sPVcigoy.png?alt=media&token=108cd023-aa64-41a0-8817-cc7578345467", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-LQBjRNKfUq7zw7w6v6NuJSn8.png?st=2023-11-17T23%3A02%3A46Z&se=2023-11-18T01%3A02%3A46Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-17T19%3A51%3A55Z&ske=2023-11-18T19%3A51%3A55Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=bP/irItbygK1NzzCj2DrfknjyfRWprUMRLUfzyx2aq4%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "ZtIQvqSLtNEpfek6YIuV", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1699895492675, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1699977600000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher november 14th than the close of november 13th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-1ed3c1498bb1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1-1ed3c1498bb1", "pool": {"NO": 891.909668442256, "YES": 49.257270059881854}, "probability": 0.9653873745863918, "p": 0.606351875901328, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1123.2206904856646, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699981878501, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699981875419, "lastBetTime": 1699977442991, "lastCommentTime": 1699981874777, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FtYwpigX9IY.png?alt=media&token=88bf0e37-dc1f-4938-b5fb-aaa88c0178a9", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "eBxx8X0aYxW2HzuGa3pM", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703150132294, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703201400000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2023-12-22 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.06666666666666667, "p": 0.06666666666666667, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703374405927, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703150137975, "lastBetTime": 1703150137859, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-21 23:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 01:30 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2023&month=12&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff59dae525391.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-21 23:30 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-22 - 01:30 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:30 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:30 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:30 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "W4dbrSr6IpRfatxEWeFo", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705954284183, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706024100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3e960aefa27f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-3e960aefa27f", "pool": {"NO": 87.14261813900427, "YES": 110.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.10861974012430455, "p": 0.13331236395470944, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706045352266, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706045352438, "lastBetTime": 1706013921670, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-23 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fb083d7bd7eac.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-23 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-23 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "eolgWcDzc2FfL8kuxJLU", "creatorId": "cpb5lKFeEofRCpEFxBzZW4oC0SF3", "creatorUsername": "kinabets", "creatorName": "kina", "createdTime": 1698677568749, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkinabets%2FXO27Gpp-pz.jpeg?alt=media&token=99df33c2-397a-4e16-8067-7a67007f4b14", "closeTime": 1699211050375, "question": "Will Max Verstappen win the Brazillian GP 2023?", "slug": "will-max-verstappen-win-the-brazill", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kinabets/will-max-verstappen-win-the-brazill", "pool": {"NO": 5441.036148562563, "YES": 181.01507916487947}, "probability": 0.9901178740338861, "p": 0.7692270550548977, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15052.641745021043, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699211053498, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699211001911, "lastBetTime": 1699211001781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "kRJwFCJ7d7B828vVhrvq", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1693583912656, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1693723500000, "question": "Will DL flight 31 from London to Atlanta on 2023-09-03 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-58b6443cdf7e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-dl-flight-31-from-london-to-at-58b6443cdf7e", "pool": {"NO": 404.58357238649876, "YES": 142.24486358772396}, "probability": 0.9483467279185485, "p": 0.8658622157960075, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 372.7777586258181, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693775565431, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693723473098, "lastBetTime": 1693723472987, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/mrhw4u9e", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/mrhw4u9e", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/mrhw4u9e"}, {"id": "Nb9EQhShyKyebGnLm4MG", "creatorId": "seKeeSLlcHXY8A2caa8eiJjqLlb2", "creatorUsername": "Godspeed", "creatorName": "Godspeed", "createdTime": 1671570169742, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGodspeed%2FCShGXIcZFK.jpeg?alt=media&token=304a9894-659e-4ab1-85a6-706e5668b547", "closeTime": 1671758100000, "question": "[NFL] Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win against the New York Jets on Thursday night?", "slug": "nfl-will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Godspeed/nfl-will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-w", "pool": {"NO": 294.93590170958754, "YES": 284.20548064630503}, "probability": 0.5199999999999996, "p": 0.5107438852783764, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 509.8819051097508, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671768827376, "resolutionProbability": 0.52, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671755969814, "lastBetTime": 1671755969634, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NFL Week 16:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thursday Night Football on Dec. 22, 2022 at 8:15pm Eastern", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if JAX wins", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if NYJ wins", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F1FkuCVKm1R.png?alt=media&token=0b5e899c-726b-46f7-9d44-31aed462adbe", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl"], "textDescription": "NFL Week 16:\n\nJacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets\n\nThursday Night Football on Dec. 22, 2022 at 8:15pm Eastern\n\nResolves YES if JAX wins\n\nResolves NO if NYJ wins"}, {"id": "c3DQdLJoLsalV0Iqehvi", "creatorId": "uPEbZ90qG8YH1k4JlkfOzFZEcuR2", "creatorUsername": "BruceGrugett", "creatorName": "BCG", "createdTime": 1672678642543, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBruceGrugett%2FBruce%202.jpeg?alt=media&token=b9276b97-bf8c-4c92-9832-adff2729ad86", "closeTime": 1673310600000, "question": "Will the Georgia Bulldogs beat the TCU Horned Frogs in the national championship game at SoFi stadium on Jan 9?", "slug": "will-the-georgia-bulldogs-beat-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-the-georgia-bulldogs-beat-the", "pool": {"NO": 440.43680199863223, "YES": 311.8382653975903}, "probability": 0.8000000000000004, "p": 0.7390452380949447, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 773.3405710869845, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1673370509945, "resolutionProbability": 0.8, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1673272672586, "lastBetTime": 1673272671379, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Georgia is favored by 13.5 points.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFVU7amBZPs.png?alt=media&token=74aa01c5-8212-4564-87cf-863fc9d5f40e", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Georgia is favored by 13.5 points."}, {"id": "hnQqn9blnxno02Aa5gKu", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700420876065, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700981133384, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will California beat UCLA?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-california-beat-uc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-california-beat-uc", "pool": {"NO": 8182.421896705983, "YES": 0.7260675201525519}, "probability": 0.9998945638818508, "p": 0.4569677565060792, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8411.966004197682, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700981133384, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700980827347, "lastBetTime": 1700980827217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 10:30 PM ET in Pasadena, CA.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: California 34, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UCLA 58", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: California 1, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UCLA 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/929a774d197c.png?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=aoxHDJly1S2loFQ4Wx4ofcjv4Gq2PMANY8FCnv9JnMoMIk%2FUuq6O8wDa%2FNM3rOKvccQ8LcWySYpPsTtyh%2BGIKHaqKkuCBS%2FutmA1vm7pQisKWyr1GA2eK%2BKWvk28BP%2BV7maSGZduLG2%2Bmfb0pJY7rDR5exaL1DBbbDEGk68Xa5zKtQ3tNAbMKwU%2F4KDzmKwbHyGbEbL3ZMp739JTkDHK3HWPZDVZtI5S0SFTSHifMbot%2BRr1jhpuzdUrVuQcKHTWIM0qCT4tJWUJaymkTHCEJIJ8b74fpsePPAbBpSrW31G%2FSsLD2Mdt06sl%2B3zOY5VncAZb21etQp9v2GZvFePqTQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "pac12"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 10:30 PM ET in Pasadena, CA.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: California 34, UCLA 58, Tie 1\n\nLast 5: California 1, UCLA 4, Tie 0"}, {"id": "qYgP0HSNxBiCvORgBAaH", "creatorId": "n820DjHGX9dKsrv0jHIJV8xmDgr2", "creatorUsername": "ZZZZZZ", "creatorName": "ZZZ ZZZ", "createdTime": 1675625494116, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZZZZZZ%2FJT0vvLnZlm.webp?alt=media&token=063ed85f-9ace-4b0c-8280-d14d0d5ca2f9", "closeTime": 1675720800000, "question": "[Debate] Is it ethical to use an ad blocker?", "slug": "debate-is-it-ethical-to-use-an-ad-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ZZZZZZ/debate-is-it-ethical-to-use-an-ad-b", "pool": {"NO": 1985.2568689495506, "YES": 181.13867498783844}, "probability": 0.9834755548304821, "p": 0.8444884797530363, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2018.3268305106124, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1675815619381, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675834541610, "lastBetTime": 1675719042709, "lastCommentTime": 1675834538950, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Provide arguments for whether it is ethical to use an ad blocker. If the concensus of persuasive arguments/points are in the favor of the use of an ad blocker being ethical, the market resolves YES. If the concensus of persuasive arguments/points are in the favor of the idea that using an ad blocker is unethical, the market resolves NO. Market resolves based on my subjective opinion of which \"side\" argued best.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will do my best to consider/evaluate ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "only", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " the arguments in the comments, and consider the validity of the arguments within different values/perspectives other than my own. I will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Sick dunks and references to data, philosophical/ethical frameworks, or studies, get bonus points.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fx6ub-95xKR.png?alt=media&token=04a89e73-a15c-44a8-b651-5bbd5658d172", "groupSlugs": ["debate"], "textDescription": "Provide arguments for whether it is ethical to use an ad blocker. If the concensus of persuasive arguments/points are in the favor of the use of an ad blocker being ethical, the market resolves YES. If the concensus of persuasive arguments/points are in the favor of the idea that using an ad blocker is unethical, the market resolves NO. Market resolves based on my subjective opinion of which \"side\" argued best.\n\nI will do my best to consider/evaluate only the arguments in the comments, and consider the validity of the arguments within different values/perspectives other than my own. I will not trade in this market.\n\nSick dunks and references to data, philosophical/ethical frameworks, or studies, get bonus points.\n\nI will not bet on this market."}, {"id": "CS0PIveQs4KVzT3QMdMt", "creatorId": "Y6Yy3KQyiXTd4ROJlA8Sncy4nfi2", "creatorUsername": "arrowing", "creatorName": "arrow", "createdTime": 1697562179746, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Farrowing%2FzwSW5TpS_Q.jpg?alt=media&token=fd8617fd-4534-4ac7-9365-cfbee55972d7", "closeTime": 1698188340000, "question": "Will UCL remove its spray tan on Portico done by the Just Stop Oil protester by the end of October?", "slug": "will-ucl-remove-its-spray-tan-on-po", "url": "https://manifold.markets/arrowing/will-ucl-remove-its-spray-tan-on-po", "pool": {"NO": 77.87622586480909, "YES": 106.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.36667984660423425, "p": 0.4407377257724902, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698226949152, "resolutionProbability": 0.37, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698227024145, "lastBetTime": 1698172865930, "lastCommentTime": 1698227022225, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The main building of UCL was vandalised by a Just Stop Oil protester on 11th October. As of 17th October, the vandalism is still present and the university hasn't tried to remove it.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uni-politics", "protest-477e21b09291", "climate"], "textDescription": "The main building of UCL was vandalised by a Just Stop Oil protester on 11th October. As of 17th October, the vandalism is still present and the university hasn't tried to remove it."}, {"id": "NMq9i5Z1YUpHExTRrPqs", "creatorId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "creatorUsername": "yaboi69", "creatorName": "yaboi69", "createdTime": 1676369815540, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrkhc2TKCy7PIjvAR4cY1PaG4FZxwtS9pTHlgxh=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "There will be $1 trillion worth of new trade deals between Russia and China in 2023", "slug": "there-will-be-1-trillion-worth-of-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/yaboi69/there-will-be-1-trillion-worth-of-n", "pool": {"NO": 190.83865140992438, "YES": 433.1296362255635}, "probability": 0.14088119179338945, "p": 0.2712318725927928, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 261, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705284338191, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "ps3zKQSRuzLJVMzDQMAOlCDFRgG2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705284338395, "lastBetTime": 1704055252711, "lastCommentTime": 1705284331604, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if before December 31, 2023 varied mainstream media reports and/or quotes from officials show that Russia and China have signed at least one trade deal, with a stated expected total value of at least 1 trillion dollars over a time horizon of up to 30 years. The prediction does not include deals that involve other countries. If the stated value is substantively disputed by experts, I\u2019ll defer to the judgement of specialist reporters from media like Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: All-in podcast, E110, \u201c2023 Bestie Predictions!\u201d", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "David Sacks: \u201cBiggest business deal prediction for 2023 is there will be a deal between Putin and Xi. (\u2026) You may remember that the two of them inked a hundred and $75 billion gas deal in early February last year, that was three weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine. I think now Russia is even more dependent on China, we've really driven Russia into China's arms. And I think there will be a big deal, not just on energy, but on agricultural products, mineral products, and rare earth minerals that, you know, Chamath likes to talk about, I think there could be a trillion dollar deal between Russia and China this year, if I was gonna go out and make predictions.\u201d", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvVAsgm7N0L.png?alt=media&token=649aa395-c6e3-410a-a6d2-a8ba3231b8ba", "groupSlugs": ["allin-podcast-2023-predictions", "allin-podcast", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "resolution-pending"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if before December 31, 2023 varied mainstream media reports and/or quotes from officials show that Russia and China have signed at least one trade deal, with a stated expected total value of at least 1 trillion dollars over a time horizon of up to 30 years. The prediction does not include deals that involve other countries. If the stated value is substantively disputed by experts, I\u2019ll defer to the judgement of specialist reporters from media like Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, WaPo.\n\nResolves NO otherwise.\n\nContext: All-in podcast, E110, \u201c2023 Bestie Predictions!\u201d\n\nDavid Sacks: \u201cBiggest business deal prediction for 2023 is there will be a deal between Putin and Xi. (\u2026) You may remember that the two of them inked a hundred and $75 billion gas deal in early February last year, that was three weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine. I think now Russia is even more dependent on China, we've really driven Russia into China's arms. And I think there will be a big deal, not just on energy, but on agricultural products, mineral products, and rare earth minerals that, you know, Chamath likes to talk about, I think there could be a trillion dollar deal between Russia and China this year, if I was gonna go out and make predictions.\u201d"}, {"id": "SlCb2r6aURj8PtIyzasB", "creatorId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "creatorUsername": "Manifold", "creatorName": "Manifold", "createdTime": 1670142153350, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FManifoldMarkets%2FpZ4vplqZ5o.png?alt=media&token=67f66a52-84d1-46b7-a49e-82621e62e5e4", "closeTime": 1670342400000, "question": "Will Spain eliminate Morocco?", "slug": "will-spain-eliminate-morocco", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-spain-eliminate-morocco", "pool": {"NO": 1291.5220854856866, "YES": 1563.8752721711403}, "probability": 0.7016634666550501, "p": 0.7401170855102804, "totalLiquidity": 1510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2850.491554010354, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1670348817498, "resolutionProbability": 0.7016634666550501, "uniqueBettorCount": 51, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670362342613, "lastBetTime": 1670342183999, "lastCommentTime": 1670362338925, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Spain wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Morocco wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "See details and google's win probability here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=world+cup+schedule&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB813GB813&oq=world+cup+sc&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j0i131i433i512l2j0i3j69i60j69i61l2.2474j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=m;/g/11jlxskttd;2;/m/030q7;dt;fp;1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FEz7v6I0Fzc.png?alt=media&token=1c52c531-228f-46b7-bdf4-c172cf34674e", "groupSlugs": ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "YES = Spain wins\nNO = Morocco wins\n\n\nResolves to whichever team wins and advances to the next round.\n\n\nSee details and google's win probability here\n\nTrading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site."}, {"id": "uRNTo6dPO8gaaf1BgqWY", "creatorId": "KlXytYKnpmZ7jRioJrVkZJvCqsw2", "creatorUsername": "DonVin", "creatorName": "Don Vin", "createdTime": 1701273359474, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/user-images/KlXytYKnpmZ7jRioJrVkZJvCqsw2.png", "closeTime": 1710330565791, "question": "Will Mark Cuban become an official US President candidate for the 2024 election?", "slug": "will-mark-cuban-become-an-official", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DonVin/will-mark-cuban-become-an-official", "pool": {"NO": 475.0967559743238, "YES": 1351.3363205201026}, "probability": 0.05287068811450123, "p": 0.13702104489318545, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14013.624380558062, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710330565791, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "KlXytYKnpmZ7jRioJrVkZJvCqsw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710330566455, "lastBetTime": 1709593011676, "lastCommentTime": 1706206281565, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = All paperwork filled ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = No paperwork filled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election", "us-politics", "politics-default"], "textDescription": "Yes = All paperwork filled \n\nNo = No paperwork filled"}, {"id": "yfuGT29x3aWWSc17LoU4", "creatorId": "ZJuHQWOPh1VpggdeZT6jfHKCO8a2", "creatorUsername": "Akzzz123", "creatorName": "AK", "createdTime": 1695601979137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAkzzz123%2F0TIBkyO8XU.jpg?alt=media&token=0ecadb43-9c1d-49f6-a8be-9f343e63be0b", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-ukraine-retake-western-bakhmut-16ace4f26feb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Akzzz123/will-ukraine-retake-western-bakhmut-16ace4f26feb", "pool": {"NO": 99.29547434732841, "YES": 2008.4161322214775}, "probability": 0.018459587426127848, "p": 0.2755711684471006, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2236.5682155385143, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705434835345, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705434835551, "lastBetTime": 1701925396794, "lastCommentTime": 1705434832344, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on or before the specified date (time in Ukraine), Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["bakhmut", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolution\n\nResolves YES if on or before the specified date (time in Ukraine), Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.\n\nFor this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control)."}, {"id": "Sk5mBFCERnjfyxRswlXN", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1704833037906, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1706772564939, "question": "Nintendo Direct happening this January?", "slug": "nintendo-direct-happening-this-janu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/nintendo-direct-happening-this-janu", "pool": {"NO": 413.2352544374963, "YES": 5792.285185096778}, "probability": 0.01962968301090402, "p": 0.21915072637693428, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5643.587582530531, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706772564939, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 47, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706772566983, "lastBetTime": 1706772534752, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nintendo Direct", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wikipedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Direct", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this very month. It could air from this coming week, to the end of the month.\u00a0(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Zippo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://zippospeaks.blogspot.com/2024/01/nintendo-direct-watch-season-begins-now.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES when a Nintendo Direct happens in January 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO in February.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/marktwse%2F8dca705b47f8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "nintendo", "nintendo-direct"], "textDescription": "Nintendo Direct is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (Wikipedia)\n\nYup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this very month. It could air from this coming week, to the end of the month.\u00a0(Zippo)\n\nResolves YES when a Nintendo Direct happens in January 2024.\n\nResolves NO in February."}, {"id": "iwoVlF4PygWiJjgX5JRr", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707429217728, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707646800000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-02-11 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a6dc96cacbb6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a6dc96cacbb6", "pool": {"NO": 86.42190327806392, "YES": 112.74401485818481}, "probability": 0.11639392026508061, "p": 0.14664607986983513, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 64, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707687471430, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707687471692, "lastBetTime": 1707631154727, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-11 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-11 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=02&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=02&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F261583c8bf6b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-11 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-11 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "SOMhBe9JA2ernbw0wvUz", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703678773615, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703918700000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2023-12-30 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-371f3de0e81e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-371f3de0e81e", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.05, "p": 0.05, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703955659789, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703955660122, "lastBetTime": 1703678779146, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-30 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-30 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=30", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=30", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F3e7791369e03.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-30 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-30 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "ICVwCJR1TIQ83mmEKhZm", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1688636672619, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1690686176961, "question": "Will Tony Ferguson beat Bobby Green at UFC 291?", "slug": "will-tony-ferguson-beat-bobby-green", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tony-ferguson-beat-bobby-green", "pool": {"NO": 27.10382378122995, "YES": 42573.98131806598}, "probability": 0.0003405048298261701, "p": 0.34855046143251306, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50751.45682945076, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690686176961, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690686170543, "lastBetTime": 1690686169506, "lastCommentTime": 1690685396616, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City, Utah. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["combat-sports", "ufc", "ufc-291", "mma"], "textDescription": "Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green are scheduled to fight on July 29th, 2023 at UFC 291 in Salt Lake City, Utah. \n\nIf Tony Ferguson wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Bobby Green wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "c7JR9q8xVB1zXhlJjjyI", "creatorId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "creatorUsername": "Eliza", "creatorName": "Eliza", "createdTime": 1690389847492, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c", "closeTime": 1690481751920, "question": "Will Lotte Kopecky retain the yellow jersey after Stage 5 of the 2023 Tour de France Femmes?", "slug": "will-lotte-kopecky-retain-the-yello-97fb7cc975f0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-lotte-kopecky-retain-the-yello-97fb7cc975f0", "pool": {"NO": 625.8990610153921, "YES": 60.85447227151056}, "probability": 0.96, "p": 0.7000109555090275, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2466.19020636516, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690481756477, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690481824338, "lastBetTime": 1690481748630, "lastCommentTime": 1690481821509, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She leads by 43 seconds over her teammate and over a minute on most other competitors.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["peloton-discord", "sports-default", "road-bicycle-racing", "tour-de-france-femmes"], "textDescription": "She leads by 43 seconds over her teammate and over a minute on most other competitors."}, {"id": "x6RwqFthdqqb43lFJR6T", "creatorId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "creatorUsername": "MP", "creatorName": "MP", "createdTime": 1670849985219, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf", "closeTime": 1675279090804, "question": "Will the Federal reserve raise the federal fund rate by 50bps during their February Meeting?", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-raise-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-the-federal-reserve-raise-the", "pool": {"NO": 104.0458737820367, "YES": 3468.3653831129573}, "probability": 0.01969667434196838, "p": 0.4011188400167264, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4436.937654974574, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1675279090804, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675277732659, "lastBetTime": 1675277732552, "lastCommentTime": 1674488155542, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves to YES if the rate announced for both the top and low end of the February 1st meeting is 50bps higher than the one announced in the Dec 14th meeting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FkSjmZv71oo.png?alt=media&token=8a65acf6-872a-430e-bb62-cd6f72342451", "groupSlugs": ["federal-reserve"], "textDescription": "This market resolves to YES if the rate announced for both the top and low end of the February 1st meeting is 50bps higher than the one announced in the Dec 14th meeting.\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a)I will bet on this market."}, {"id": "V7gSb7Irhg658AFtALNB", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699042763426, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699642800000, "question": "Will AAPL close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 5]", "slug": "will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-9ba41408e61c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-9ba41408e61c", "pool": {"NO": 1542.9856256678365, "YES": 116.5054093988519}, "probability": 0.978193922802079, "p": 0.7720604524926739, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1965.3997563369992, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699652383035, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699652377253, "lastBetTime": 1699636459286, "lastCommentTime": 1699652376537, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "179.23", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "finance", "stocks", "sccsq4", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $179.23\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ\n\nNOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "bq31LLJGlGIIOHfV5xzA", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699386227581, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699570800000, "question": "Will BTC close higher on November 9 than it closed on November 8?", "slug": "will-btc-close-higher-on-november-8-26eb348eb77e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-btc-close-higher-on-november-8-26eb348eb77e", "pool": {"NO": 1119.9463689793524, "YES": 241.74667312996377}, "probability": 0.9583259240488439, "p": 0.832320473209859, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3361.705951737439, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699576928617, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699576922440, "lastBetTime": 1699569259884, "lastCommentTime": 1699576921964, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $35,692.90", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "top traders", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=btc-november-forecasting-league", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " are eligible for a prize.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Rank---Award\n1      1500\n2      750\n3      500", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "8eb6bf93-8c7d-4e01-817a-9c7d943ca6fd", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?32904433-1e70-4ceb-990d-a2bac7055065Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["btc-november-forecasting-league", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $35,692.90\n\n\nThis market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.\n\nRank---Award\n1      1500\n2      750\n3      500\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "UrKqQsIz8EySJPUuGkvi", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1700034033421, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1703057794363, "question": "Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 20th December be below 4%?", "slug": "will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-53cc9309e780", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-53cc9309e780", "pool": {"NO": 15474.397944525215, "YES": 7.171629983045932}, "probability": 0.9993718624887429, "p": 0.4244123248600859, "totalLiquidity": 637.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16728.186157865843, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703057794363, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703068784942, "lastBetTime": 1703057780046, "lastCommentTime": 1703068784279, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 20th December.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "January 2023 - 10.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "March 2023 - 10.4%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "April 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 2023 - 8.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 2023 - 8.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "July 2023 - 7.9%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 2023 - 6.8%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "September 2023 - 6.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "October 2023 - 6.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "November 2023 - 4.6%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "December 2023 - TBC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 4.0%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some other UK financial markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "SD64ouEQAplahCz803QB", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-1cb014f0b8cb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "N3OHXm0eZSqqAmF7AHFT", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-a63a31cb1de3"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk", "uk-economic-data", "finance", "economics-default", "uk-politics", "inflation"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 20th December.\n\nThis includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.\n\nHere are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):\n\nJanuary 2023 - 10.5%\n\nFebruary 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMarch 2023 - 10.4%\n\nApril 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMay 2023 - 8.7%\n\nJune 2023 - 8.7%\n\nJuly 2023 - 7.9%\n\nAugust 2023 - 6.8%\n\nSeptember 2023 - 6.7%\n\nOctober 2023 - 6.7%\n\nNovember 2023 - 4.6%\n\nDecember 2023 - TBC\n\n(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 4.0%)\n\nSome other UK financial markets:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-1cb014f0b8cb \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-a63a31cb1de3 "}, {"id": "w1OhrlLeTK5cLAGsczQl", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678641418171, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678694939068, "question": "Will Destiny's video \"The Most Heated Destiny Debate Ever, Everyone Gets Into A Sc\" reach 100k views by 3/19 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-video-the-most-heated", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-the-most-heated", "pool": {"NO": 10195.346442818576, "YES": 11.1662256100808}, "probability": 0.999555529822255, "p": 0.7112350674925356, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10181.797056980233, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678694939068, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218626727, "lastBetTime": 1678694934819, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/7osT2Os5yo4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/7osT2Os5yo4", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fb5S8u7VHaX.png?alt=media&token=5f17035a-a09c-4879-893b-18291e011aa4", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/7osT2Os5yo4\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "4quu1KtSz8EizjBzXmFD", "creatorId": "RkAt6Um0wpX2kshaEi1RnZUdBqa2", "creatorUsername": "ShakedKoplewitz", "creatorName": "Shaked Koplewitz", "createdTime": 1657829222669, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghyqz276_IAbhWaYW8vIhnwIaBQDXSxB3wO9AoCLw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672317566821, "question": "Will Israel have a governing coalition after the next election?", "slug": "will-israel-have-a-governing-coalit", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ShakedKoplewitz/will-israel-have-a-governing-coalit", "pool": {"NO": 458.59328179164964, "YES": 184.57225707739073}, "probability": 0.8412374109478882, "p": 0.6807762195553385, "totalLiquidity": 260, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 341.51175071459056, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1672317566821, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672166897573, "lastBetTime": 1672166897384, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if Israel gets a government after the next election. IT resolves to \"NO\" if all attempts at a coalition fails and the election goes to a redo (like in 2019).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israeli-politics", "israel"], "textDescription": "This question resolves to \"YES\" if Israel gets a government after the next election. IT resolves to \"NO\" if all attempts at a coalition fails and the election goes to a redo (like in 2019)."}, {"id": "Kt5RuWD1BCJAT1ukYIki", "creatorId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "creatorUsername": "BoltonBailey", "creatorName": "Bolton Bailey", "createdTime": 1674843033668, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoltonBailey%2Fsandpile.gif?alt=media&token=0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103", "closeTime": 1675017209775, "question": "Will Anish Giri win the Tata Steel Masters 2023?", "slug": "will-anish-giri-win-the-tata-steel", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-anish-giri-win-the-tata-steel", "pool": {"NO": 792.8680619577858, "YES": 25.61478808945924}, "probability": 0.9892452773222817, "p": 0.7482141566245633, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1648.7163997145021, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1675017209775, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675017086892, "lastBetTime": 1675017086781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See here for information on the event:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://tatasteelchess.com/about/tournament/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tatasteelchess.com/about/tournament/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://tatasteelchess.com/tata-steel-masters-2023/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tatasteelchess.com/tata-steel-masters-2023/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["chess"], "textDescription": "See here for information on the event:\n\nhttps://tatasteelchess.com/about/tournament/\n\nhttps://tatasteelchess.com/tata-steel-masters-2023/\n\n"}, {"id": "6F3hiMmHNCYhXY1uUNWS", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986196027, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707060900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-04 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-bbee4e65f962", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-bbee4e65f962", "pool": {"NO": 70.99999999999997, "YES": 65.19694997886066}, "probability": 0.18116943062668867, "p": 0.16886232713033905, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707079223413, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707079224126, "lastBetTime": 1707060797642, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-04 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F63e91725f5d3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-04 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "bZ7H422QE8ehBxbwQuFW", "creatorId": "WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2", "creatorUsername": "BrunoClawfeld", "creatorName": "Bruno Clawfeld", "createdTime": 1704503370909, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBrunoClawfeld%2F2xCH0tLgSL._AC_SX625_?alt=media&token=21769a6d-ae71-40e6-b534-fa9786f55ff3", "closeTime": 1711039239331, "question": "Will the US Justice Department File an Anti-Trust Case Against Apple in 2024?", "slug": "will-the-us-justice-department-file", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BrunoClawfeld/will-the-us-justice-department-file", "pool": {"NO": 828.1914225848792, "YES": 225.40845995388992}, "probability": 0.9191985429320018, "p": 0.7558715554389782, "totalLiquidity": 325.75, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 753.9779957691018, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711039239331, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "WQ7zVUq9PUXTEeENi9qjF1DlF9Y2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711039239331, "lastBetTime": 1711033368909, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Update - March 21, 2024", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It's official, closing this market shortly. Thank you for participating. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "From the online newsroom of the U.S. Justice Department.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Justice Department Sues Apple for Monopolizing Smartphone Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thursday, March 21, 2024", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For Immediate Release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Office of Public Affairs", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple\u2019s Broad-Based, Exclusionary Conduct Makes It Harder for Americans to Switch Smartphones, Undermines Innovation for Apps, Products, and Services, and Imposes Extraordinary Costs on Developers, Businesses, and Consumers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Justice Department, joined by 16 other state and district attorneys general, filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Apple for monopolization or attempted monopolization of smartphone markets in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Jan 5, 2024 - ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "U.S. Moves Closer to Filing Sweeping Antitrust Case Against Apple", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The Justice Department is in the late stages of an investigation into Apple and could file a sweeping antitrust case taking aim at the company\u2019s strategies to protect the dominance of the iPhone as soon as the first half of this year, said three people with knowledge of the matter.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/BrianCaulfield%2F9cb43a572c6a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple", "legal-decisions"], "textDescription": "\n\nUpdate - March 21, 2024\n\nIt's official, closing this market shortly. Thank you for participating. \n\nFrom the online newsroom of the U.S. Justice Department.\n\nJustice Department Sues Apple for Monopolizing Smartphone Markets\n\nThursday, March 21, 2024\n\nFor Immediate Release\nOffice of Public Affairs\n\n\nApple\u2019s Broad-Based, Exclusionary Conduct Makes It Harder for Americans to Switch Smartphones, Undermines Innovation for Apps, Products, and Services, and Imposes Extraordinary Costs on Developers, Businesses, and Consumers\n\nThe Justice Department, joined by 16 other state and district attorneys general, filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Apple for monopolization or attempted monopolization of smartphone markets in violation of Section 2 of the Sherman Act.\n\nhttps://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-apple-monopolizing-smartphone-markets\n\nJan 5, 2024 - \n\nU.S. Moves Closer to Filing Sweeping Antitrust Case Against Apple\n\nThe Justice Department is in the late stages of an investigation into Apple and could file a sweeping antitrust case taking aim at the company\u2019s strategies to protect the dominance of the iPhone as soon as the first half of this year, said three people with knowledge of the matter.\n\nhttps://dnyuz.com/2024/01/05/u-s-moves-closer-to-filing-sweeping-antitrust-case-against-apple/"}, {"id": "C5wyYSA08MzPVEjCH1PK", "creatorId": "O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72", "creatorUsername": "AjayChabra", "creatorName": "Ajay", "createdTime": 1700007217789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1700196048730, "question": "NFL Week 11 (TNF) 11/16/23 - Will CIN Bengals RB Joe Mixon rush for more yards than BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson?", "slug": "nfl-week-11-tnf-111623-will-cin-ben", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-11-tnf-111623-will-cin-ben", "pool": {"NO": 1352.767893102211, "YES": 29.36804006171706}, "probability": 0.9877663808263937, "p": 0.6367434117791547, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1410.3381013821474, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700196048730, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206766395, "lastBetTime": 1700195809454, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week 11 Thursday Night Football - 11/16/23 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon rush for more yards than Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "note: sacks do not count against rushing yards.  If they are tied in rush yards it goes to Lamar Jackson.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-k1oZgA2REQOg4s3GrMYTlCJM.png?st=2023-11-14T23%3A13%3A55Z&se=2023-11-15T01%3A13%3A55Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-14T23%3A31%3A11Z&ske=2023-11-15T23%3A31%3A11Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=2SpAuZtF0oqHfUUOHjhrxEXwHDbalzLjknzEubiduU0%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "nfl", "baltimore-ravens", "cincinnati-bengals"], "textDescription": "Week 11 Thursday Night Football - 11/16/23 - Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens.\n\nWill Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon rush for more yards than Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson?\n\nnote: sacks do not count against rushing yards.  If they are tied in rush yards it goes to Lamar Jackson.\n\n"}, {"id": "Q7ErtGJpfJIYeixMd9ng", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986117983, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707030000000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-04 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-56986400adbe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-56986400adbe", "pool": {"NO": 61.59750775366644, "YES": 147.78319375309275}, "probability": 0.060000000000000095, "p": 0.13280172310593547, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 100, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707045446194, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707045446424, "lastBetTime": 1707018527771, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-04 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=04", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F95c30069233c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-04 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-04 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "VjRTt8a1pHvGCyAy5GcT", "creatorId": "39gmIbdfpIM4GMQR7uy1vS6W4sj2", "creatorUsername": "milanw", "creatorName": "Milan W", "createdTime": 1677902665126, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5d6qU9nM7RIoFtvbFlJqPeeg_Q2Z8XWY4RsHrw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704146219980, "question": "Will Sam Altman be the CEO of OpenAI on January 1st 2024?", "slug": "will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena", "url": "https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena", "pool": {"NO": 154854.49483358138, "YES": 972.2583919317561}, "probability": 0.9981169994001308, "p": 0.7689486705142627, "totalLiquidity": 5685, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 822402.9506343745, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704146228242, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "39gmIbdfpIM4GMQR7uy1vS6W4sj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 1009, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206911829, "lastBetTime": 1704140278866, "lastCommentTime": 1704146470667, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI does not exist in January 1st 2024:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And a clear successor organization exists:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within this successor organization) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this resolves as NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI still exists in January 1st 2024, but has no CEO:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Sam Altman occupies an unique (within OpenAI) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this resolves as NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will not resolve until January 1st 2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As it is possible that Sam Altman ceases to be the CEO of OpenAI, and then returns before that date.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FanVBCy4nsA.png?alt=media&token=74dea3a8-9b6e-41c2-9c2e-3087779f5b60", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "openai", "openai-crisis", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "sam-altman"], "textDescription": "If OpenAI does not exist in January 1st 2024:\n\nAnd a clear successor organization exists:\n\nIf Sam Altman occupies an unique (within this successor organization) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.\n\nOtherwise, this resolves as NO.\n\nIf OpenAI still exists in January 1st 2024, but has no CEO:\n\nIf Sam Altman occupies an unique (within OpenAI) office of roughly equivalent executive power, this resolves as YES.\n\nOtherwise, this resolves as NO.\n\nThis market will not resolve until January 1st 2024.\n\nAs it is possible that Sam Altman ceases to be the CEO of OpenAI, and then returns before that date."}, {"id": "c3XBcJSs03mxtFwYO5mb", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1681228813877, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1704149940000, "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-3def4dd86923", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-3def4dd86923", "pool": {"NO": 213.52025422303993, "YES": 20249.959421868538}, "probability": 0.00286356768112664, "p": 0.21405683073718054, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 51018.21595716795, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704637917496, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "9dAaZrNSx5OT0su6rpusDoG9WPN2", "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704637917699, "lastBetTime": 1704132439766, "lastCommentTime": 1704630886840, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15849/ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15849/ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian organized ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "defence lasted until 20 May 2022 when defenders were ordered to cease fighting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/defenders-of-mariupol-are-the-heroes-of-our-time-the-battle-that-gripped-the-world", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Mariupol is strategically important to Ukraine because it is a major port city and serves as a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It also has a huge symbolic value because ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the defence of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces, including their heroic defence of Azovstal, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/mariupol-holds-out-against-russias-siege-a-symbol-of-ukrainian-resistance", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license (CC-BY-SA 2.0)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Lencer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "CC BY-SA 3.0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", via Wikimedia Commons", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " This question and especially its resolution criteria part is based on RyanBeck's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "question about Melitopol", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15412/ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "From https://metaculus.com/questions/15849/ukrainian-control-of-mariupol-jan-1-2024/\n\nMariupol is a city in southeastern Ukraine located on the north coast of the Sea of Azov, which is currently under Russian occupation. Before the Russian 2022 invasion of Ukraine it had a population of over 400,000 residents, and it was an important industrial center in Ukraine. The city came under siege of Russian forces shortly after the start of the invasion. The Ukrainian organized defence lasted until 20 May 2022 when defenders were ordered to cease fighting. Mariupol is strategically important to Ukraine because it is a major port city and serves as a gateway to the Sea of Azov. It also has a huge symbolic value because the defence of Mariupol by Ukrainian forces, including their heroic defence of Azovstal, has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance against Russian aggression.\n\nCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 license (CC-BY-SA 2.0) Lencer, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons This question and especially its resolution criteria part is based on RyanBeck's question about Melitopol."}, {"id": "qVKftjAHluj7V8n6HOjs", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1700354775967, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1700380312848, "question": "Will Charles Leclerc win the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-charles-leclerc-win-the-2023-f-67a716c6125b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-charles-leclerc-win-the-2023-f-67a716c6125b", "pool": {"NO": 12.014659430529719, "YES": 14280.416280217765}, "probability": 0.00042162512291301003, "p": 0.33393177586209205, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14454.975165473417, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700380312848, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700380309546, "lastBetTime": 1700380309404, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The race will take place on November 18, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "The race will take place on November 18, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "Eh9rrFauDco8GO73K9xE", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1674324978917, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will the US issue premium bonds in 2023? (Bonds with sale value much greater than face value)", "slug": "will-the-us-issue-premium-bonds-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-issue-premium-bonds-in", "pool": {"NO": 136.8775972988237, "YES": 1608.6112676902283}, "probability": 0.018460578989397704, "p": 0.18102103781062512, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2160.9782402205246, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704136578423, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704136578738, "lastBetTime": 1693120087073, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One workaround the US government could take to circumvent the debt ceiling is to issue premium bonds - bonds that pay a higher interest rate than normal and therefore can be sold for much more than the principal amount, which is what counts against the debt ceiling.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For background, see ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-11/financial-engineering-the-debt-ceiling", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-11/financial-engineering-the-debt-ceiling", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-new-plan-to-get-around-the-debt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-new-plan-to-get-around-the-debt", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the US issues premium bonds in 2023, otherwise NO. Here premium bond will be defined as any bond that the US government sells for at least 150% of the principal amount. (Issuing coupon-only bonds would count as per this definition.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, \"bond\" will include any debt instrument that is functionally a bond; what the Treasury names it doesn't matter - e.g. T-bills, T-notes, or T-bonds all count as bonds.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-mint-a-trilliondollar-p", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FzBIPqMTtZx.png?alt=media&token=fd635c3e-18a9-47b6-a056-c649c4213439", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "mint-the-coin", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "One workaround the US government could take to circumvent the debt ceiling is to issue premium bonds - bonds that pay a higher interest rate than normal and therefore can be sold for much more than the principal amount, which is what counts against the debt ceiling.\n\nFor background, see https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-11/financial-engineering-the-debt-ceiling or https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-new-plan-to-get-around-the-debt.\n\nResolves YES if the US issues premium bonds in 2023, otherwise NO. Here premium bond will be defined as any bond that the US government sells for at least 150% of the principal amount. (Issuing coupon-only bonds would count as per this definition.)\n\nFor the purposes of this market, \"bond\" will include any debt instrument that is functionally a bond; what the Treasury names it doesn't matter - e.g. T-bills, T-notes, or T-bonds all count as bonds.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-the-us-mint-a-trilliondollar-p)"}, {"id": "lT9zzKRQsgd1sOpO1tX7", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1701978984877, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702090800000, "question": "Will Silver Mar 24 close higher on Dec 8 than Dec 7? (SI=F Daily)", "slug": "will-silver-mar-24-close-higher-on-b3ec0a928abf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-silver-mar-24-close-higher-on-b3ec0a928abf", "pool": {"NO": 69.3102258100211, "YES": 374.8564590236974}, "probability": 0.08226733975813746, "p": 0.32651689424822566, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 294.3336914884907, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702102319993, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702102228775, "lastBetTime": 1702087782478, "lastCommentTime": 1702102227831, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Silver closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 23.732", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SI%3DF?p=SI%3DF", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts/c5f2ed50b924.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=fVOhZv1S9w%2BEhgXduhooCbd7MP%2FVDEkLKVCS1Weu3%2BhQMNXe6OSdAWiQOraoSfbbn3Q5FfuQYAOua5M4LBO6zROeXVyOw0B59r3ArKzixHNW4p0138V9Uh%2F4zoZ1Q%2FnSMw6okrn%2F3UDom0DyO4Q6EkMhtLaNGzy3YOME0SZtCCuRzUzrXXvefXzabTPQNbigcgYLjuJgMvxjxOCsiK3MkIA%2B7Cjn5GnpF6N9gVrxGYh3Oi0dsWb7EJvW%2BGLj%2FSElWk6RJyNps%2BWZR2TuAcQ2EfF94J7T%2F%2Bo7V7p7S1dvQveABhnWle0pTZF8LrkiUXEL3iFfbfLrVeRhNnQrQSMPyw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "futures-stocks", "finance", "economics-default", "stocks", "silver-stocks"], "textDescription": "Silver closes at 11pm CST (5am UTC). This Market closes 2 hours earlier.\n\nPrevious Close Price: 23.732\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Yahoo's Summary Last Price.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "EjkAonsrYG2oLjCRjBDH", "creatorId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "creatorUsername": "StopPunting", "creatorName": "Stop Punting", "createdTime": 1701729698202, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStoppunting%2FU_8wwZ-g5O.jpg?alt=media&token=c92d2477-27aa-4e8b-9dd4-50d1db23bb5f", "closeTime": 1703994986745, "question": "Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - Derpstiny of the Year?", "slug": "will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-4071dc116c7b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-4071dc116c7b", "pool": {"NO": 390.38147310283375, "YES": 65.37656307678613}, "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "p": 0.6899164612023891, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 793.4226009650756, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703994986745, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703995022542, "lastBetTime": 1703994605591, "lastCommentTime": 1703995021905, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/UFTG/tda23-derpstiny-of-the-year", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Other\" counts as any other clip in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting/1810e7118b55.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=GBrZaqz5IiVVQGqQS2tclkfyxOisN0IlAztpHhwcOo2Wp%2F6z%2BJdBVfYwCglmcm2pAGVC9hGyTTRqwP5XPZZCz%2F5h0yxli9A0ydq%2Bh%2FYreGwonm%2BiUtmhmpFGRyXVVvtDj0HVNknJ4gLmEFGMfY6utOeEQ1W2nYIKMusol7rhgKNn5AyW8m9hyP8At8cAKNLcjhwrhSu8yT%2B8yN6RRPE2JJZlFFpjazP4Hs5tskU%2BSBrUSEDfllxaFnhCCLO1feOd4ZcQn4%2BfF%2Bh7MjGS53yGBYjEzdyZHw1h0cIMQbhQqkVcBsu2CfM5KN6eeHyg17Xlzino%2FwSwFMokglvMDc5yVg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "the-destiny-awards-2023", "the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125", "debate", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/UFTG/tda23-derpstiny-of-the-year)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.\n\nThis will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".\n\n\"Other\" counts as any other clip in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)\n\nUsing Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046\n\nPlease no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).\n\nI will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets."}, {"id": "izAjrAM63SUR1FUHnBfe", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698085348838, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1698188400000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-24", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-24", "pool": {"NO": 1987.8261559926934, "YES": 69.47233743961853}, "probability": 0.9906568456110697, "p": 0.7874890573789596, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2261.3850552398853, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698195699721, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698195685235, "lastBetTime": 1698188088091, "lastCommentTime": 1698195684394, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5467", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "economics-default", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5467\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "ieAlcRfffjFolbwKTmev", "creatorId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "creatorUsername": "DanielFilan", "creatorName": "Daniel Filan", "createdTime": 1700591379709, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDanielFilan%2FfpQjhngsSN.png?alt=media&token=acfc7197-647a-4617-b6a0-6889d0558a2e", "closeTime": 1706817833013, "question": "Is Sam Altman actually currently in negotiations with the board to return?", "slug": "is-sam-altman-actually-currently-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/is-sam-altman-actually-currently-in", "pool": {"NO": 1302.836741450693, "YES": 108.83638827976738}, "probability": 0.9767497047061053, "p": 0.778243418778542, "totalLiquidity": 207.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1249.511999309656, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706817833013, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "yykycFLFkqfC48MK7gaPfseTkvl2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706817930618, "lastBetTime": 1706447039567, "lastCommentTime": 1706817929059, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is now being reported that Sam Altman is in talks with the board to return:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sam Altman and members of the OpenAI board have opened negotiations aimed at a possible return of the ousted co-founder and CEO to the artificial intelligence company.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1727022863847149987", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1727022863847149987", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the video attached to that tweet, reporter Ed Ludlow says", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We sat there all day Sunday saying \"OK, well Sam's definitely coming back and the board's going to go\". That wasn't the case at all. The board was digging in, and there was very little communication at all.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By 1 Feb 2024, will the latest reliable reporting be that the current story of Sam being in serious negotiations with the OpenAI board to return is accurate?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since \"reliable reporting\" is somewhat subjective, I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["openai-crisis", "sam-altman"], "textDescription": "It is now being reported that Sam Altman is in talks with the board to return:\n\nSam Altman and members of the OpenAI board have opened negotiations aimed at a possible return of the ousted co-founder and CEO to the artificial intelligence company.\n\nhttps://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1727022863847149987\n\nIn the video attached to that tweet, reporter Ed Ludlow says\n\nWe sat there all day Sunday saying \"OK, well Sam's definitely coming back and the board's going to go\". That wasn't the case at all. The board was digging in, and there was very little communication at all.\n\nBy 1 Feb 2024, will the latest reliable reporting be that the current story of Sam being in serious negotiations with the OpenAI board to return is accurate?\n\nSince \"reliable reporting\" is somewhat subjective, I will not bet in this market."}, {"id": "COzVGggmgYZuQxjOE18a", "creatorId": "Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682", "creatorUsername": "pea", "creatorName": "pea", "createdTime": 1694132042939, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fpea%2Fars5TkbLMX.jpeg?alt=media&token=776ffe6e-5d47-479b-9a88-6960dc109946", "closeTime": 1699206910501, "question": "Will the Miami Dolphins win against the Kansas City Chiefs?", "slug": "will-the-miami-dolphins-win-against-e65bea381800", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pea/will-the-miami-dolphins-win-against-e65bea381800", "pool": {"NO": 10.612034843845588, "YES": 12681.650967788499}, "probability": 0.0007309126143184143, "p": 0.4664099781803016, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21273.54621723566, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699206910501, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699206167239, "lastBetTime": 1699206167120, "lastCommentTime": 1699004417610, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFHBA1wkvP5.png?alt=media&token=f5728bff-9887-4483-bfff-5d827a391f86", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Check out the rest of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Miami Dolphins markets!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/miami-dolphins", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "miami-dolphins", "nfl"], "textDescription": "[image]Check out the rest of the Miami Dolphins markets!"}, {"id": "nu1bWCYQtEKN27mobstm", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1695071244648, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695842116696, "question": "Will UO flight 697 from Jeju to Hong Kong on 2023-09-19 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-uo-flight-697-from-jeju-to-hon", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-uo-flight-697-from-jeju-to-hon", "pool": {"NO": 118.28835444285762, "YES": 181.96308574640597}, "probability": 0.940905128989113, "p": 0.9607731436498527, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695858273334, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695767661602, "lastBetTime": 1695082022198, "lastCommentTime": 1695767661053, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/33na7mbv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/33na7mbv", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/33na7mbv"}, {"id": "Ya71b0cIBj70Ze6t5ps6", "creatorId": "LGyAvu07MDRgGj1EjiNjFmyiD6r1", "creatorUsername": "flexadecimal", "creatorName": "chapman", "createdTime": 1699217056367, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRhysChappell%2FBYPQBMxrN3.07?alt=media&token=577d1ddc-b2e1-4376-b941-9fe13949b89b", "closeTime": 1700420355978, "question": "Will Novak Djokovic win the 2023 ATP finals?", "slug": "will-novak-djokovic-win-the-2023-at", "url": "https://manifold.markets/flexadecimal/will-novak-djokovic-win-the-2023-at", "pool": {"NO": 713.8197675086296, "YES": 54.56011968778899}, "probability": 0.93, "p": 0.50384043630055, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1202.3046309669444, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700420355978, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700420240169, "lastBetTime": 1700420240038, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "tennis"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "qGAxhihHLUCrfhOMiFez", "creatorId": "VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1", "creatorUsername": "NoitUK", "creatorName": "NoitUK", "createdTime": 1685046598284, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNoit%2FTnGAL99ByF.jpeg?alt=media&token=4b4dd60a-ea55-4a28-8606-6461b85c2c3f", "closeTime": 1704045908683, "question": "Will Lord True lose his job in 2023?", "slug": "will-lord-true-lose-his-job-in-2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NoitUK/will-lord-true-lose-his-job-in-2023", "pool": {"NO": 8.333333333333343, "YES": 300.00000000000006}, "probability": 0.027027027027027053, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 250.00000000000006, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704045908683, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "VC8wAxhSj3YoEgTVAvwHv8tTXsn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 1, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704045909458, "lastBetTime": 1699965456751, "lastCommentTime": 1685675552999, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Lord True ceases to hold the title of Leader of the House of Lords and Lord Privy Seal, as listed on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "His Majesty's Government: The Cabinet - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://members.parliament.uk/government/cabinet", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", before the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FV958FK6-yY.png?alt=media&token=108d824a-08b3-45ef-8112-1a1ae6d46ce4", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Lord True ceases to hold the title of Leader of the House of Lords and Lord Privy Seal, as listed on His Majesty's Government: The Cabinet - MPs and Lords - UK Parliament, before the end of 2023."}, {"id": "4GH0sgr5uIX8xmMPuzhn", "creatorId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "creatorUsername": "Mvem", "creatorName": "Mvem", "createdTime": 1691428876504, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBenjaminOrman%2FPirateAvatar.png?alt=media&token=1e22cd76-a338-416c-8d7c-9f71f6bf4d66", "closeTime": 1704779940000, "question": "Will any Big Ten West team be ranked at the end of the 2023 college football season?", "slug": "will-any-big-ten-west-team-be-ranke", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mvem/will-any-big-ten-west-team-be-ranke", "pool": {"NO": 266.418212942245, "YES": 420.2238209318239}, "probability": 0.5600000000000002, "p": 0.6674961603003421, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 934.2620041347695, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704806456557, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "resolverId": "HwCvt306sjbxjfO2klisheSAOjw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704806456847, "lastBetTime": 1704155044153, "lastCommentTime": 1704806435585, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ever since its inception, the Big Ten West has been notoriously mediocre. In 2022, no team was ranked at the end of the season. 2023 is the final year of the current division format, leaving one last season for the Big Ten West.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if one or more Big Ten West team (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, or Wisconsin) is in the top 25 of the final ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AP poll", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["college-football", "sports-default", "big-ten"], "textDescription": "Ever since its inception, the Big Ten West has been notoriously mediocre. In 2022, no team was ranked at the end of the season. 2023 is the final year of the current division format, leaving one last season for the Big Ten West.\n\nThis market will resolve YES if one or more Big Ten West team (Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, or Wisconsin) is in the top 25 of the final AP poll."}, {"id": "XUqsFn334TpL2alPUbkF", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1701641725962, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1703656800000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Kansas beat UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-beat-unlv-i", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-kansas-beat-unlv-i", "pool": {"NO": 2597.921462547293, "YES": 84.4880893451859}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.7630118556385512, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4311.0746878596865, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703660325377, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703660325760, "lastBetTime": 1703654795698, "lastCommentTime": 1703657636460, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-12-26 at 9 PM ET in Phoenix, AZ. Line: Kansas -12.5.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/573919e8ef27.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=dwjWmuAu2ISBOLyjMlwoW%2Fh7i2gTp37oSOxXjROUSTolHyml3qaNAIu8va522EiaHR120hubKVdyP2q8T1V%2F3IRobgCELqxOiPGlJ80mtfx8twRv87kdIp6oKe33QGb1Gf6Kwe3%2FapwhEyACMGUUDeeeDMJAzXxmj1e3IRA5Rckx3SX3EgPmGCMAcLrAIchg1jn8BPGhE1GPjvUCmUEU0g6jnhktbUT3MU9BT33yidEIyT%2FWiu6KL960CyfWccMGduLRFxGTUVRr9VYhqg%2F5Mk49IsDa2%2BAkFm4NoBrWUq3joqbDUJU9MN3EY5H6dx4v5LZY8ZTMhhgSdacqxvJ7sQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "mountain-west-conference", "football", "college-football", "big-12"], "textDescription": "2023-12-26 at 9 PM ET in Phoenix, AZ. Line: Kansas -12.5."}, {"id": "pY3LTB13jkPjFEvukeZE", "creatorId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "creatorUsername": "Manifold", "creatorName": "Manifold", "createdTime": 1670881711112, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FManifoldMarkets%2FpZ4vplqZ5o.png?alt=media&token=67f66a52-84d1-46b7-a49e-82621e62e5e4", "closeTime": 1670961600000, "question": "Will Argentina eliminate Croatia in the Semis?", "slug": "will-argentina-eliminate-croatia-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-argentina-eliminate-croatia-in", "pool": {"NO": 3497.8185664453026, "YES": 379.71563687589935}, "probability": 0.96, "p": 0.7226373585109283, "totalLiquidity": 810, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14132.609713026131, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1670965916436, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 41, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670961597656, "lastBetTime": 1670961597495, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = Argentina wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Croatia wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the finals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "See details and google's win probability here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=world+cup&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GBGB1003GB1003&oq=world+cup&aqs=chrome.0.35i39j46i10i131i433i512j0i10i131i433i512l3j69i60l3.11460j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=m;/g/11jk2283h2;2;/m/030q7;dt;fp;1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want to trade for the full duration of the game, check out JAAM's market (however his market doesn't count towards the $500 tournament leaderboard).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-argentina-eliminate-croatia-at", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FkCHtYRcwkM.png?alt=media&token=64d30255-0a01-4b7b-934f-2192496ba33b", "groupSlugs": ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "YES = Argentina wins\nNO = Croatia wins\n\n\nResolves to whichever team wins and advances to the finals.\n\n\nSee details and google's win probability here\n\nTrading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.\n\nIf you want to trade for the full duration of the game, check out JAAM's market (however his market doesn't count towards the $500 tournament leaderboard).\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-argentina-eliminate-croatia-at)"}, {"id": "k9k1h3nIFEZRHSHyGRU5", "creatorId": "bDD4502S6zPfx8FwWp5Ni4PNFuB2", "creatorUsername": "TrGreg", "creatorName": "Tr Greg", "createdTime": 1691389166280, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteH8mLOt4unmRyECbHFbhiu_87xdosiIR1Eu9Sv3dTB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1692423434776, "question": "Will Messi be the Top Goal scorer for the 2023 Leagues Cup?", "slug": "will-messi-be-the-top-goal-scorer-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TrGreg/will-messi-be-the-top-goal-scorer-f", "pool": {"NO": 1965.0126445566889, "YES": 310.05422472860533}, "probability": 0.9534771231945588, "p": 0.7638067538964597, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2421.947113763077, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692502475007, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692216095104, "lastBetTime": 1692216094965, "lastCommentTime": 1691810154303, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He currently leads by 1 goal at a total of 7. If there is a tie , Yes wins", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "soccer"], "textDescription": "He currently leads by 1 goal at a total of 7. If there is a tie , Yes wins"}, {"id": "VBfIUJPlABgCOTBzZezs", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1708382729084, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1711971508230, "question": "Will \"Dune: Part Two\" receive >50% as many perfect scores (i.e. 100) from critics on Metacritic as \"Oppenheimer\"?", "slug": "will-dune-part-two-receive-50-as-ma", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-dune-part-two-receive-50-as-ma", "pool": {"NO": 39.065008295043526, "YES": 17101.813329729626}, "probability": 0.0016782537144565451, "p": 0.4239426154484997, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 18872.583465219268, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711971508230, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711971508230, "lastBetTime": 1711971499392, "lastCommentTime": 1711971471739, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for \"Oppenheimer\": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " of these reviews.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold \"Dune: Part Two\" needs to surpass.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve YES if within one month after release (April 1st), Metacritic has recorded ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "14 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " reviews for \"Dune: Part Two\" with the score of 100: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " . If there are 13 or fewer reviews with the score of 100, it resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For reference, Metacritic shows 68 reviews for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Dune\" (2021)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-one/critic-reviews/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". By my count, 8 of these reviews have a score of 100.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am not normalizing for the total number of reviews. All that matters is the total number recorded by Metacritic with a score of 100.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am allowing for a full month after release to give plenty of time for reviews to arrive. But occasionally a few reviews will appear on Metacritic more than a month after release. These will not be counted. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ziddletwix%2F8ddbc62b1259.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["media-rating-futures", "culture-default", "metacritic", "movies", "dune", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720"], "textDescription": "Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for \"Oppenheimer\": https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/.\n\nBy my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in 27 of these reviews.\n\n50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold \"Dune: Part Two\" needs to surpass.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if within one month after release (April 1st), Metacritic has recorded 14 or more reviews for \"Dune: Part Two\" with the score of 100: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/ . If there are 13 or fewer reviews with the score of 100, it resolves NO. \n\nDetails:\n\nFor reference, Metacritic shows 68 reviews for \"Dune\" (2021). By my count, 8 of these reviews have a score of 100.\n\nI am not normalizing for the total number of reviews. All that matters is the total number recorded by Metacritic with a score of 100.\n\nI am allowing for a full month after release to give plenty of time for reviews to arrive. But occasionally a few reviews will appear on Metacritic more than a month after release. These will not be counted. \n\nIf any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask."}, {"id": "eBStsB7KhmM82FurhSnZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944087566, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707972600000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2024-02-15 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-db5e0c7bb5b4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-db5e0c7bb5b4", "pool": {"NO": 51, "YES": 43.09915109339505}, "probability": 0.13627486341947184, "p": 0.1176470588235294, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708032232383, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708032232645, "lastBetTime": 1707969614671, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-15 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2024&month=02&date=15", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fff7d3de5c7a1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-15 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-15 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "FoKNXMFdtRD2GL7Sr8FJ", "creatorId": "1S3tsifD6kTYTIGEF2zEsIeEE7v2", "creatorUsername": "MaePole", "creatorName": "Mae Pol\u00e9", "createdTime": 1668419874659, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0abgk9-5BMcT8OLNL2P15srXmgzN8EsnSTAylaiA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672531140000, "question": "Will Suella Braverman still be the Home Secretary in 2023?", "slug": "will-suella-braverman-still-be-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaePole/will-suella-braverman-still-be-the", "pool": {"NO": 698.1480051057106, "YES": 74.9524555301798}, "probability": 0.962363360385363, "p": 0.7329882336660029, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 841.8890815353792, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1672532841965, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672496723415, "lastBetTime": 1672496723214, "lastCommentTime": 1668419900441, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suella_Braverman", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suella_Braverman", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Suella Braverman the current home secretary of the UK has been the subject of controversy, losing her position of home secretary under short-served PM Liz Truss. Will Rishi Sunak fold to pressure to get rid of her by January 1st? Yes or No. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FaIl39qIx4C.png?alt=media&token=05873e72-30b0-402e-8113-2766ccf5a080", "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suella_Braverman\n\nSuella Braverman the current home secretary of the UK has been the subject of controversy, losing her position of home secretary under short-served PM Liz Truss. Will Rishi Sunak fold to pressure to get rid of her by January 1st? Yes or No. "}, {"id": "Sh2r9FBsGEepasmEIjxg", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1686355208323, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1686686400000, "question": "Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) close higher on June 13th than it closed on June 12th?", "slug": "will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-9a31a806dae9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-dow-jones-industrial-avera-9a31a806dae9", "pool": {"NO": 16212.23232820735, "YES": 48.35044856499434}, "probability": 0.9992755102142725, "p": 0.8044389267704996, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16947.953527671696, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686686448129, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686686462115, "lastBetTime": 1686686399064, "lastCommentTime": 1686686459867, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJI closes at 4pm EDT. Predictions close at same time.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "07813853-8826-43b2-8bdf-f91e2365e283", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Dow Jones Industrial Average Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-0519e54d5e22", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Foh7SoozHzc.png?alt=media&token=604584de-175a-4992-87c2-7a32a7835c96", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "DJI closes at 4pm EDT. Predictions close at same time.\n\nResolves according to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX at the end of the day.\n\n[link preview]I May Or May Not Actively Participate In The Market\n\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-nasdaq-composite-ixic-clos-0519e54d5e22)"}, {"id": "LgvFyBijy3zpTE8rYSWd", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1698193788525, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1698256598327, "question": "Will at least 5 Democrats abstain/vote present in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House?", "slug": "will-at-least-5-democrats-abstainvo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-at-least-5-democrats-abstainvo", "pool": {"NO": 17.34673756932341, "YES": 1901.3639846743295}, "probability": 0.0045955701446606535, "p": 0.3360082643017847, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1866, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698256598327, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698256593980, "lastBetTime": 1698256593838, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at least 5 Democratic members of the House either do not vote or vote \"present\" in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress. Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there are multiple ballots, only the final deciding ballot counts for this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A member not voting for any reason counts, including absence. A vacant seat doesn't count, because it's not a member.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the House does not elect another Speaker before the end of the current term (118th Congress), that's a NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-at-least-5-members-abstain-fro-aacd2e1371d0", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-at-least-5-republicans-abstain", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["speaker-of-the-house-election", "118th-congress", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if at least 5 Democratic members of the House either do not vote or vote \"present\" in the ballot electing the next Speaker of the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress. Otherwise NO.\n\nIf there are multiple ballots, only the final deciding ballot counts for this question.\n\nA member not voting for any reason counts, including absence. A vacant seat doesn't count, because it's not a member.\n\nUnelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution\n\nIf the House does not elect another Speaker before the end of the current term (118th Congress), that's a NO.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-at-least-5-members-abstain-fro-aacd2e1371d0)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-at-least-5-republicans-abstain)"}, {"id": "1x7KGECcqlXQRpxLtm0k", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707681809560, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710593700201, "question": "Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 15, 2024 be higher than the previous day?", "slug": "will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-8d4fdf0cce72", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-highest-temperature-in-nyc-8d4fdf0cce72", "pool": {"NO": 11.07653712062529, "YES": 23965.1540538905}, "probability": 0.0002733613047171679, "p": 0.3717034902792524, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23818.16713126669, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710593700201, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710593700846, "lastBetTime": 1710593696812, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 15, 2024 is higher than the previous day ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F8891223097e8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["weather"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 15, 2024 is higher than the previous day \nResolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No) \n\nHighest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report \nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0 \n\nNote: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market. \n"}, {"id": "iYj9RjR71fStauyxuT5B", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1711978944837, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715354048862, "question": "Will \"Challengers\" (2024) have >86% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?", "slug": "will-challengers-2024-have-86-criti", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-challengers-2024-have-86-criti", "pool": {"NO": 4094.6142042346964, "YES": 234.65549354028917}, "probability": 0.9897137126493702, "p": 0.8464850666654814, "totalLiquidity": 500, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7282.950196366783, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715354048862, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715354094807, "lastBetTime": 1715353849949, "lastCommentTime": 1715354093558, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Challengers\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 10th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after release).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "ties resolve NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Call Me By Your Name\" is 94%", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/call_me_by_your_name", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Challengers\" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["culture-default", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "television-film", "movies", "politics-default", "boxoffice"], "textDescription": "\"Challengers\" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023\n\nI will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 10th (two weeks after release).\n\nDetails:\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier \"Call Me By Your Name\" is 94%. \n\n\"Challengers\" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist. \n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ)"}, {"id": "8xT8KaeUbfTfRiyQujsc", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1683498120741, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1687421397953, "question": "Will any 2023 movie be ranked on IMDb's Top 100?", "slug": "will-any-2023-movie-be-ranked-on-im-5dc58b53a142", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-any-2023-movie-be-ranked-on-im-5dc58b53a142", "pool": {"NO": 3065.2459066897654, "YES": 98.84615646510021}, "probability": 0.9911658980438244, "p": 0.7834598882954932, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4557.164242585126, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1687421397953, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687397866127, "lastBetTime": 1686113634081, "lastCommentTime": 1687397862812, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Needs to stay on IMDb Top 100 for at least a week.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://250.took.nl/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://250.took.nl/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FX_Ghl4YMEf.png?alt=media&token=10baf51f-c92f-4944-9d24-43a6cadc75bd", "title": null}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FitsOyE0rPw.png?alt=media&token=edc36300-b76b-4b25-a211-5692205a27a4", "groupSlugs": ["entertainment"], "textDescription": "Needs to stay on IMDb Top 100 for at least a week.\n\nhttps://www.imdb.com/chart/top/\n\nhttps://250.took.nl/\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "poA0eBN0P3SwjmDXq8mO", "creatorId": "CWChdPylvrViBJ46NcIbGcK1qDa2", "creatorUsername": "NicholasKross", "creatorName": "Nicholas Kross", "createdTime": 1683316698478, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicholasKross%2FUo1N2YPyFL.jpg?alt=media&token=a15bd383-b351-45d1-9731-c544eb8ba83e", "closeTime": 1690910008488, "question": "Will Post Malone release a new studio album this year?", "slug": "will-post-malone-release-a-new-stud", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NicholasKross/will-post-malone-release-a-new-stud", "pool": {"NO": 588.2427023241039, "YES": 13.917471115952594}, "probability": 0.9829008476496252, "p": 0.5762711864406771, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 800.1081114012002, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690910008488, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690910006075, "lastBetTime": 1690909987990, "lastCommentTime": 1690910003538, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Like the ones so far: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_Malone_discography#Studio_albums", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_Malone_discography#Studio_albums", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "fun"], "textDescription": "Like the ones so far: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_Malone_discography#Studio_albums"}, {"id": "IjVwRroxoS2b8gzvfoQp", "creatorId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "creatorUsername": "Agh", "creatorName": "Agh", "createdTime": 1694937253594, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAghgg2%2FIjSFdFdbHO.jpg?alt=media&token=7fcbf9aa-3d8e-4b3a-896a-92c3aadf6a66", "closeTime": 1696143600000, "question": "Will destiny reach 712k subscribers in September?", "slug": "will-destiny-reach-712k-subscribers", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/will-destiny-reach-712k-subscribers", "pool": {"NO": 787.9048005849122, "YES": 10799.001675890238}, "probability": 0.0364094860643638, "p": 0.34118781768850404, "totalLiquidity": 1985, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 72174.64927735092, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696143783585, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 147, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696149941071, "lastBetTime": 1696143571156, "lastCommentTime": 1696149940481, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "related markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rqQHVQpN6f5Q9BMo5VN7", "label": "/Agh/will-destiny-reach-710k-subscribers"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "2sES2NiNA6cJla2PVwPv", "label": "/Agh/will-destiny-reach-715k-subscribers"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PrS39rjpVHD1rlX6C80w", "label": "/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-406c2b58eb95"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Mcc9CNckbHQ6zruCk0zW", "label": "/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-3af8cb53b119"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fe6TvWVYt3i.jpg?alt=media&token=9ac7d3c1-edc9-4731-ba11-20de612030a3", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny\n\nrelated markets:\n\n@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-710k-subscribers \n\n@/Agh/will-destiny-reach-715k-subscribers \n\n@/johnleoks/will-destinys-youtube-channel-reach-406c2b58eb95 \n\n@/Agh/how-many-subscribers-will-destiny-h-3af8cb53b119 "}, {"id": "ytmsBRo3jADo6QsZSBi0", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1695778920429, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695817800000, "question": "Will AC flight 105 from Toronto to Vancouver on 2023-09-27 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-ac-flight-105-from-toronto-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ac-flight-105-from-toronto-to", "pool": {"NO": 267.91199832409393, "YES": 183.2475931494754}, "probability": 0.7500000000000001, "p": 0.6723409370224097, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 165.73053435556636, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695840756507, "resolutionProbability": 0.75, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695809387361, "lastBetTime": 1695809387065, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/bd78fawc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/bd78fawc", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/bd78fawc"}, {"id": "xPpXie1gjqBR5hYkoQvq", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1703612727210, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1709452800000, "question": "Will GM Vladimir Kramnik's blog on chess.com be unmuted before March 2024?", "slug": "will-gm-vladimir-kramniks-blog-on-c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-gm-vladimir-kramniks-blog-on-c", "pool": {"NO": 109.85458543464485, "YES": 3595.1712467210423}, "probability": 0.01061150188052687, "p": 0.25980944244126725, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3341.718572276965, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710530763863, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710530764053, "lastBetTime": 1709394735915, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His blog was muted because of his repeated insinuations of cheating towards a number of well respected players and acting in bad faith once it was shown that those players were likely not cheating.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/firstuserhere%2F25c8a62debde.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["chess"], "textDescription": "His blog was muted because of his repeated insinuations of cheating towards a number of well respected players and acting in bad faith once it was shown that those players were likely not cheating."}, {"id": "TdHcyOAvyAqmgwPXLNcV", "creatorId": "rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2", "creatorUsername": "Guillaume", "creatorName": "Guillaume", "createdTime": 1702675963599, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGuillaume%2FPo5gz3ZIgW.50-k_dpmpp_2m?alt=media&token=2cdb3ff4-1a5d-4198-86d5-06b87835ab6b", "closeTime": 1702730643917, "question": "Is G\u00f6del incompletness theorem true ?", "slug": "is-godel-incompletness-theorem-true", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Guillaume/is-godel-incompletness-theorem-true", "pool": {"NO": 655.9508074384714, "YES": 343.3654306076894}, "probability": 0.954938945033296, "p": 0.9173093733782065, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 871.9391244523342, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702730643917, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "rubvHZCzGxclApIgRyZahOlCMQj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702706443121, "lastBetTime": 1702701340213, "lastCommentTime": 1702706442455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "G\u00f6del's First Incompleteness Theorem:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This theorem states that in any consistent formal mathematical system that is expressive enough to formulate basic arithmetic, there exist true mathematical statements that cannot be proven within the system. In other words, there are truths within mathematics that cannot be deduced or demonstrated using the rules and axioms of that particular mathematical system.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It implies that there will always be mathematical truths that lie beyond the reach of formal proof within a given system.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Guillaume%2Fe16589f61cb2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "mathematics", "theorem"], "textDescription": "G\u00f6del's First Incompleteness Theorem:\n\nThis theorem states that in any consistent formal mathematical system that is expressive enough to formulate basic arithmetic, there exist true mathematical statements that cannot be proven within the system. In other words, there are truths within mathematics that cannot be deduced or demonstrated using the rules and axioms of that particular mathematical system.\n\nIt implies that there will always be mathematical truths that lie beyond the reach of formal proof within a given system."}, {"id": "RNcM5NZjeRxZTRvJTrmv", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1685416263366, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1686366648894, "question": "Will the Denver Nuggets win Game 4 of the 2023 NBA Finals vs. the Miami Heat?", "slug": "will-the-denver-nuggets-win-game-4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-the-denver-nuggets-win-game-4", "pool": {"NO": 11762.994715934577, "YES": 51.627632021619775}, "probability": 0.9971411248123103, "p": 0.6048720340085675, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20713.469411960697, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686366648894, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686366643719, "lastBetTime": 1686366643580, "lastCommentTime": 1686363358567, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game will take place in Miami, FL.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnkQbaZBao2.png?alt=media&token=eadaa8a0-d0e2-4896-b9e8-d62fc3d2037a", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Game will take place in Miami, FL."}, {"id": "DPF08AKBbWOsxTRxC9tV", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1675230860935, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1678677257251, "question": "Will 'Everything Everywhere All At Once' win 4 or more Academy Awards?", "slug": "will-everything-everywhere-all-at-o-663cd8ea09b4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-everything-everywhere-all-at-o-663cd8ea09b4", "pool": {"NO": 11435.923912039656, "YES": 127.14082515079099}, "probability": 0.9957076946763262, "p": 0.7205940515442287, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11395.87163711881, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678677257251, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1678677243929, "lastBetTime": 1678677243770, "lastCommentTime": 1675230868871, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 4 of those 11.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FMnxtiJaopG.png?alt=media&token=03b312f0-6ddd-4181-9f99-d1471552966d", "groupSlugs": ["movies", "entertainment", "oscars-2023"], "textDescription": "EEAAO is nominated for 11 oscars in 10 categories. This market will resolve to YES if it wins at least 4 of those 11."}, {"id": "xwyvJtVRUGFqiTaBq5iU", "creatorId": "VB1PI3BbSTU7qBAdn6QlNahGDFq1", "creatorUsername": "yk", "creatorName": "yk", "createdTime": 1693754224757, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F2eb7%2Fm1EM8v8HZE.jpeg?alt=media&token=bff81696-81dd-4e17-bc16-c6fe8750ad16", "closeTime": 1701867369552, "question": "Will Italy extend the Belt and Road initiative with China at March 2024?", "slug": "will-italy-extend-the-belt-and-road", "url": "https://manifold.markets/yk/will-italy-extend-the-belt-and-road", "pool": {"NO": 1264.969381643161, "YES": 7584.097098155387}, "probability": 0.03380447815496232, "p": 0.17339319958075533, "totalLiquidity": 1745, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8146.248309442817, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701867369552, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 91, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701867357368, "lastBetTime": 1701863012341, "lastCommentTime": 1701867356700, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/02/many-italian-parties-are-against-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-foreign-minister-says.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/02/many-italian-parties-are-against-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-foreign-minister-says.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "b7302293-7ff3-4910-ae0c-c95c8f433e7d", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/02/many-italian-parties-are-against-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-foreign-minister-says.html", "image": "https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107295330-1693640172310-gettyimages-1633879627-tajani_4310_auph9yux.jpeg?v=1693644237&w=1920&h=1080", "title": "Many Italian parties are against China's Belt and Road Initiative, foreign minister says", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Many Italian parties are against Rome's participation in China's Belt and Road Initiative, Antonio Tajani, the country's foreign minister said Saturday.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Italy has been discussing whether it should leave the Belt and Road initiative of China.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The renewal is expected at end of March 2024 currently.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves early if Italy has publicized their final decision and it is confirmed by CNN or BBC. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["europe", "politics-default", "china", "italy", "subsidy-spotlight"], "textDescription": "https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/02/many-italian-parties-are-against-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-foreign-minister-says.html\n\n[link preview]Italy has been discussing whether it should leave the Belt and Road initiative of China.\n\nThe renewal is expected at end of March 2024 currently.\n\nThis market resolves early if Italy has publicized their final decision and it is confirmed by CNN or BBC. "}, {"id": "Npbdo3uJMgYVlaXaUj9m", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699652400140, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700247600000, "question": "Will AAPL close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 12]", "slug": "will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-576e498af5f1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-576e498af5f1", "pool": {"NO": 3867.6161997120075, "YES": 178.17737359532205}, "probability": 0.9873577788032855, "p": 0.7825138194190485, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6524.35787645405, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700258636559, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700258632813, "lastBetTime": 1700246989512, "lastCommentTime": 1700258631975, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: $184.80", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-JlZlqukm8SjlM74EuXOjbkmc.png?st=2023-11-10T20%3A40%3A13Z&se=2023-11-10T22%3A40%3A13Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-10T21%3A40%3A13Z&ske=2023-11-11T21%3A40%3A13Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=SKN%2B1w8vTftLV%2BvSfOxodZZnQ714pcX1P1fN%2BJ%2B4gQs%3D", "groupSlugs": ["finance", "hawsbollah", "stocks", "economics-default", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $184.80\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ\n\nNOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "sHJDIgbnzClt9WJgIM9I", "creatorId": "eV5xvYO6naXuiETrpMowEfwjy4B3", "creatorUsername": "sn", "creatorName": "Snoozing Newt", "createdTime": 1701571955457, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIcNpcZuQQ_naRBzkIdnXBQBvIGFZLURNPLHqh20Fk-bkU=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705970449505, "question": "Can Chat-GPT Play Akinator?", "slug": "can-chatgpt-play-akinator", "url": "https://manifold.markets/sn/can-chatgpt-play-akinator", "pool": {"NO": 734.9494906528183, "YES": 436.1848028345873}, "probability": 0.9092525927308777, "p": 0.8560431607729245, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 934.730406011262, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705970449505, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "resolverId": "eV5xvYO6naXuiETrpMowEfwjy4B3", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705970450178, "lastBetTime": 1705970332280, "lastCommentTime": 1705970440658, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting tomorrow, I will try to have GPT-4 on ChatGPT guess Mr. Beast in the style of Akinator. I will give them the following prompt originally:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"I am thinking of a person. You are trying to guess that person. You will ask me questions and I will respond with \"Yes\", \"No\", \"Probably\", \"Probably Not\", and \"I don't know\". Guess the person (could be real or fictional) within 50 tries - when you are confident you have the right person, submit a \"Final Guess\".\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Each day, I will post my response and their guess in the comments. My response will always be exactly \"Yes\", \"No\", \"Probably\", \"Probably Not\", or \"I don't know\". I will be as honest as possible in my responses in the chat, and share the chat after it finishes. If I'm objectively wrong for whatever reason, within the day you can comment and I'll edit my response.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If they submit the final guess that is something along the lines of \"Mr. Beast\" within 50 days/guesses, resolves YES. If they don't, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/snoozingnewt/5037a2c20b28.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=IQsDwNRo9MZGQR%2BeV3C5dOUa8ZXsanlnMjCdn92eD%2BcHYJ41w4tvJeFvfCnq7QB%2FPqat3WQoKx33m0ZW4C5iNQVm7UKpbtbpdUW55YGdH%2FQNjC80mUSaPH5wucdZJVm0iml7LDSypzrv%2F%2FdNTgu0OrCa386QkSOJIAowf4gFiwHaLaOHWjp04SN0ebEbcyjdNK9vAHBBYv0N5AjL%2BEyha4ubuCepbPtII99w8S91LFN5KZ%2BkND1UJsYbxTCk0isuxqlO%2BeaeOexc8smOB%2Bc9SPEjqK%2F%2Ba%2F1pYk6AcsHwsBItMnOrapVEY1a0l%2FqKnTAEQM1CHIjvegrPBtwrGXBFbQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "ai", "chatgpt", "chatgpt-vs-human"], "textDescription": "Starting tomorrow, I will try to have GPT-4 on ChatGPT guess Mr. Beast in the style of Akinator. I will give them the following prompt originally:\n\n\"I am thinking of a person. You are trying to guess that person. You will ask me questions and I will respond with \"Yes\", \"No\", \"Probably\", \"Probably Not\", and \"I don't know\". Guess the person (could be real or fictional) within 50 tries - when you are confident you have the right person, submit a \"Final Guess\".\"\n\nEach day, I will post my response and their guess in the comments. My response will always be exactly \"Yes\", \"No\", \"Probably\", \"Probably Not\", or \"I don't know\". I will be as honest as possible in my responses in the chat, and share the chat after it finishes. If I'm objectively wrong for whatever reason, within the day you can comment and I'll edit my response.\n\nIf they submit the final guess that is something along the lines of \"Mr. Beast\" within 50 days/guesses, resolves YES. If they don't, resolves NO."}, {"id": "TMYKIvaKoj43Px8knE3B", "creatorId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "creatorUsername": "CarsonGale", "creatorName": "Carson Gale", "createdTime": 1672882743426, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCarsonGale%2Fhqs4q-lat4.jpg?alt=media&token=56f63f36-5d81-45fd-9ff3-a1fc33070eae", "closeTime": 1704527940000, "question": "In 2023, will robotics, 3D printing, and automation industries \"get a boost\"?", "slug": "in-2023-will-robotics-3d-printing-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/in-2023-will-robotics-3d-printing-a", "pool": {"NO": 375.83718043321284, "YES": 251.80986389167845}, "probability": 0.7699999999999997, "p": 0.6916467871932794, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 163.26296379826582, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707706557091, "resolutionProbability": 0.77, "resolverId": "4aW01GHrlgafwAPLI1St7MPnOni1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707706557277, "lastBetTime": 1704504008336, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 4th, 2023 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Term Sheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fortune.com/newsletter/termsheet", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of these predictions was the following:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u201c", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Robotics, 3D printing, and automation industries will all get a boost as manufacturing firms bump into labor shortages as they increase US production and sourcing to take advantage of 45X tax credits. 45X, which directs $30 billion in tax credits over the next 10 years for US production of components such as solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries for electric vehicles, as well as the minerals that go into these products, sets up a labor challenge for these companies. With labor still in short supply, this will push robotic technologies to the forefront as companies try to keep pace with demands.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "\u201d \u2014Daniel Ketyer, investor, Piva Capital", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as \"n/a\". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[TBU]", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["term-sheet-2023-predictions", "private-markets", "carsons-important-markets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023. \n\nOne of these predictions was the following:\n\n\u201cRobotics, 3D printing, and automation industries will all get a boost as manufacturing firms bump into labor shortages as they increase US production and sourcing to take advantage of 45X tax credits. 45X, which directs $30 billion in tax credits over the next 10 years for US production of components such as solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries for electric vehicles, as well as the minerals that go into these products, sets up a labor challenge for these companies. With labor still in short supply, this will push robotic technologies to the forefront as companies try to keep pace with demands.\u201d \u2014Daniel Ketyer, investor, Piva Capital\n\nI will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as \"n/a\". \n\nAny clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date: \n\n[TBU]\n"}, {"id": "uajEabYJu0TWCGtJm0ff", "creatorId": "4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2", "creatorUsername": "GustavoMafra", "creatorName": "Gustavo Mafra", "createdTime": 1686452393952, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGustavoMafra%2FTPftSeT7dB.jpg?alt=media&token=ead35656-54d8-46f1-a8e3-8d7a4f86a32e", "closeTime": 1704077940000, "question": "Will Greta Gerwig's Barbie be rated at least 7.5 in IMDB at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-greta-gerwigs-barbie-be-rated-5d2100c713d6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-greta-gerwigs-barbie-be-rated-5d2100c713d6", "pool": {"NO": 205.44135999799576, "YES": 5439.917440805391}, "probability": 0.01718281063530723, "p": 0.3164455548386644, "totalLiquidity": 730, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10989.124758658403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704085593935, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "4UrkF8yHd2PKzmgXB77GGkNRgXO2", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704085594349, "lastBetTime": 1704076078895, "lastCommentTime": 1691604218051, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2023-12-31 at Yes if Barbie is rated 7.5 or above, and at No if not", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "IMDB page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Ff2la3YPjST.png?alt=media&token=dd0de3be-8fa7-4971-8342-a6ae91f55dcb", "groupSlugs": ["movies", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Closes 2023-12-31 at Yes if Barbie is rated 7.5 or above, and at No if not\n\nIMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1517268"}, {"id": "4wxkntk4o3eMpNWFlCM0", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1695168141353, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695170400000, "question": "Will FR flight 568 from Madrid to Las Palmas on 2023-09-20 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-fr-flight-568-from-madrid-to-l", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-568-from-madrid-to-l", "pool": {"NO": 28.417444664783652, "YES": 70.90800314383297}, "probability": 0.9424270677965013, "p": 0.9761023216724659, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695247690599, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695168222373, "lastBetTime": 1695168222074, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/4xby9zxw", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/4xby9zxw", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4xby9zxw"}, {"id": "wIeMjPsLEiUPa342vB6G", "creatorId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "creatorUsername": "DeathByTech", "creatorName": "DeathByTech", "createdTime": 1703275406337, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDeathByTech%2F6w4bQQKMDZ.jpeg?alt=media&token=ef640e16-9c3f-4cbe-9043-4e3a77d7c266", "closeTime": 1706763540000, "question": "Will Russia control avdiivka by the end of January 2024", "slug": "will-russia-control-avdiivka-by-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DeathByTech/will-russia-control-avdiivka-by-the", "pool": {"NO": 123.19387080697867, "YES": 3012.6180029809416}, "probability": 0.010843888024230652, "p": 0.21141034192360839, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4077.2987191542725, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706786442155, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Mgyh0oxORxM6Eca1DUWcB1R4pf52", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706786464302, "lastBetTime": 1706749700507, "lastCommentTime": 1706786459855, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "understandingwar.org", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://understandingwar.org", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will be used to determine how this resolves", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows avdiivka up to near Sieverne and stepove as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No: no otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/DeathByTech%2F4c484b58ff5b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "russia"], "textDescription": "understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves\n\nYes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows avdiivka up to near Sieverne and stepove as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight \n\nNo: no otherwise"}, {"id": "wwJ3ZRKz0DJZmFwRy33q", "creatorId": "PXelv1QrwZPOyEcal9Rg6B6gxer2", "creatorUsername": "CromlynGames", "creatorName": "Patrick Barry", "createdTime": 1675940019133, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCromlynGames%2F3S6CfEbdrZ._The_zombies_gut_is_missing_5460183c-da59-4002-a7d8-abbd87b47b2d?alt=media&token=ce64ada6-2f49-4765-ad0c-fed13541dc5e", "closeTime": 1676964050116, "question": "Will the Good Law Project successfully sue the UK Government in London?", "slug": "will-the-good-law-project-successfu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CromlynGames/will-the-good-law-project-successfu", "pool": {"NO": 195.43967865320337, "YES": 47.341649229002456}, "probability": 0.8365087770838764, "p": 0.5534490923878571, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 150, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1676964050116, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1676964039747, "lastBetTime": 1676361526006, "lastCommentTime": 1676964036443, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.dezeen.com/2022/02/18/net-zero-strategy-legal-challenge-good-law-project/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dezeen.com/2022/02/18/net-zero-strategy-legal-challenge-good-law-project/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A not-for-profit organisation is taking legal action against the UK government's strategy for achieving ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "net-zero", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dezeen.com/tag/net-zero/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " carbon emissions, claiming it fails to meet its legal obligations under the Climate Change Act.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not-for-profit ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Good Law Project", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://goodlawproject.org/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\u00a0launched a legal challenge to \"force the government to revise and strengthen\" the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Net Zero Strategy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1033990/net-zero-strategy-beis.pdf", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " by 30 June.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The group alleges that the strategy is unlawful because it fails to set out the policies or proposals needed to achieve its target, to bring the amount of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere down to net-zero by 2050.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "According to the Climate Change Act of 2008, the government is legally committed to achieving this target.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Right now, there is no way the government's Net Zero Strategy meets its legal obligations under the Climate Change Act,\" said Jo Maugham, founder of Good Law Project.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The government may have set out a vision, but it hasn't set out the specific policies needed to lead us to net-zero, and it isn't measuring the emissions reductions its initiatives are meant to achieve,\" said Maugham.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"So while the government has set the grand target of net-zero by 2050, it fails to set out how we will actually get there. We believe this is unlawful.\"", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will remain open until at least 5 traders have entered (I'm short on M). ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves yes if the court finds in favour of the Good Law Project on any of the claims.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves no if the court finds in favour of BEIS on any of the claims.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 9, 1:39pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the Good Law Project successfully use the UK Government in London?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the Good Law Project successfully sue the UK Government in London?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCTe3hhHFRO.png?alt=media&token=56c6b8a3-8841-4030-8cb4-70752b151610", "groupSlugs": ["ecolaw"], "textDescription": "https://www.dezeen.com/2022/02/18/net-zero-strategy-legal-challenge-good-law-project/\n\nA not-for-profit organisation is taking legal action against the UK government's strategy for achieving net-zero carbon emissions, claiming it fails to meet its legal obligations under the Climate Change Act.\n\nNot-for-profit Good Law Project\u00a0launched a legal challenge to \"force the government to revise and strengthen\" the Net Zero Strategy by 30 June.\n\nThe group alleges that the strategy is unlawful because it fails to set out the policies or proposals needed to achieve its target, to bring the amount of greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere down to net-zero by 2050.\n\nAccording to the Climate Change Act of 2008, the government is legally committed to achieving this target.\n\n\"Right now, there is no way the government's Net Zero Strategy meets its legal obligations under the Climate Change Act,\" said Jo Maugham, founder of Good Law Project.\n\n\"The government may have set out a vision, but it hasn't set out the specific policies needed to lead us to net-zero, and it isn't measuring the emissions reductions its initiatives are meant to achieve,\" said Maugham.\n\n\"So while the government has set the grand target of net-zero by 2050, it fails to set out how we will actually get there. We believe this is unlawful.\"\n\n\nThis market will remain open until at least 5 traders have entered (I'm short on M). \nThis market resolves yes if the court finds in favour of the Good Law Project on any of the claims.\nThis market resolves no if the court finds in favour of BEIS on any of the claims.\n\nFeb 9, 1:39pm: Will the Good Law Project successfully use the UK Government in London? \u2192 Will the Good Law Project successfully sue the UK Government in London?"}, {"id": "UwOnOPv1hsvjPU7as3BH", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699734242315, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699830000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on November 12 than it closed on November 11?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-2b8c4feb6901", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-1-2b8c4feb6901", "pool": {"NO": 319.1936048270305, "YES": 170.85815973928467}, "probability": 0.7034036817684332, "p": 0.5593673418088703, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 510.6060648883687, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1699835268360, "resolutionProbability": 0.7, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699835260905, "lastBetTime": 1699829910942, "lastCommentTime": 1699835260245, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $0.6630", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6630\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "iren7eDrrOWchb60NiNQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986085652, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707115500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-05 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e3b5e0c42649", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-e3b5e0c42649", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.13559322033898305, "p": 0.13559322033898305, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707167957700, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707167957923, "lastBetTime": 1706986093086, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-05 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-05 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=05", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Feb96fe3bbf1d.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-05 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-05 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "gPUUTzCe5zzgbjSdDDiZ", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1705498437481, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1707379140000, "question": "Will Disney+ Percy Jackson Season 1 be well liked?", "slug": "will-disney-percy-jackson-season-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-disney-percy-jackson-season-1", "pool": {"NO": 115.85407556170391, "YES": 2297.3774447742667}, "probability": 0.011358208803323283, "p": 0.18554839560394765, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3225.4534901548345, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707396877734, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707396890250, "lastBetTime": 1707377756044, "lastCommentTime": 1707396889668, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One week after the Percy Jackson season finale has premiered, will the show still be rated ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7.4 (or higher) on IMDb", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12324366/?ref_=ext_shr_lnk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " - currently 7.5?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first season has been really quite good so far, will Disney stick the landing on their newest Disney+ series?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2F1562142bab97.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["television-film", "tv", "disney", "disney-6ead8e57808a", "reviews", "percy-jackson"], "textDescription": "One week after the Percy Jackson season finale has premiered, will the show still be rated 7.4 (or higher) on IMDb - currently 7.5?\n\nThe first season has been really quite good so far, will Disney stick the landing on their newest Disney+ series?"}, {"id": "juRPq0rEusBB8l5Wvrqq", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1699216899489, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1699741923989, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Troy beat Louisiana Monroe?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-troy-beat-louisian", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-troy-beat-louisian", "pool": {"NO": 2265.274790705163, "YES": 16.9372734306195}, "probability": 0.9977585829271619, "p": 0.7689636122599052, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2366.9449471770336, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699741923989, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699740839925, "lastBetTime": 1699740839801, "lastCommentTime": 1699677544978, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-11 at 2 PM ET in Monroe, LA. Line: Louisiana Monroe +20.5.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "sun-belt-conference"], "textDescription": "2023-11-11 at 2 PM ET in Monroe, LA. Line: Louisiana Monroe +20.5."}, {"id": "F6ecUl9SOj42VErLVSJQ", "creatorId": "dNgcgrHGn8ZB30hyDARNtbjvGPm1", "creatorUsername": "Bot", "creatorName": "Arrrrrrr \ud83e\udd16", "createdTime": 1674553005701, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBot%2F-bCM6it035.jpg?alt=media&token=e3a8c34c-c140-4d6f-8eab-b395649745b3", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-putin-be-leader-of-russia-but", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bot/will-putin-be-leader-of-russia-but", "pool": {"NO": 311.1082643982037, "YES": 5337.362301158615}, "probability": 0.0036556690786322408, "p": 0.05921900325861421, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17151.185410455608, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704117105923, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "dNgcgrHGn8ZB30hyDARNtbjvGPm1", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704117106942, "lastBetTime": 1703513913587, "lastCommentTime": 1681561758972, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-vladimir-putin-still-be-the-le", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/njmkw/if-ukraine-recaptures-cherson-in-20-abc72a4594fc", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " resolves YES and ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/1-will-vladimir-putin-be-president", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/1-will-vladimir-putin-be-president", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " resolves NO.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 24, 12:14pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Putin be leader of russia but no longer president at then end of 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 25, 11:52pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at the end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["arbitrage-insurance", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-vladimir-putin-still-be-the-le resolves YES and https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/1-will-vladimir-putin-be-president resolves NO.\n\nJan 24, 12:14pm: Will Putin be leader of russia but no longer president at then end of 2023? \u2192 Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023?\n\nJan 25, 11:52pm: Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at then end of 2023? \u2192 Will Putin be leader of Russia but no longer president at the end of 2023?"}, {"id": "RfcqUGnoyBl0sQQ5PPVT", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698681156375, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699034400000, "question": "Will AMZN close higher on Friday than it did on Monday?", "slug": "will-amzn-close-higher-on-friday-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-amzn-close-higher-on-friday-th", "pool": {"NO": 3251.3305232048106, "YES": 115.32449509647776}, "probability": 0.991713089356221, "p": 0.8093337513886144, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3795.311165568556, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699042968228, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699055338083, "lastBetTime": 1699030402801, "lastCommentTime": 1699055337389, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: $132.71", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "finance", "stocks", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $132.71\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ\n\nNOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "bV26cVhyJUAnKOFpXukB", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1695227931394, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1701009756115, "question": "Will Pierre Gasly finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-pierre-gasly-finish-in-the-poi-cdd121e3a515", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-pierre-gasly-finish-in-the-poi-cdd121e3a515", "pool": {"NO": 55.07991485752791, "YES": 15365.04572628128}, "probability": 0.0016957568716911944, "p": 0.3215050932209489, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21480.462596845187, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701009756115, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701009752057, "lastBetTime": 1701009751932, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 26, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "vztyD86K0NJmZNAAqzwg", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701890924330, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701964800000, "question": "Will Rheinmetall close higher december 7th than the close of december 6th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-rheinmetall-close-higher-decem-1127ba0b70d7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-decem-1127ba0b70d7", "pool": {"NO": 60.43475947450749, "YES": 755.389719048089}, "probability": 0.021195342118752996, "p": 0.21300918823162227, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 792.5309637170744, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701976428847, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222359232, "lastBetTime": 1701961245028, "lastCommentTime": 1701974700717, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSwwBNFOuff.png?alt=media&token=ef16b333-068b-46a4-b3d9-1e6b57f35487", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos/2c4a28856bc7.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=eBdfskUgPVqRuQge%2Fy2Gf7%2BvoOZcWTf4Jmpaea3AxWFKbZIySB%2Btlgx3yCnvtYQ0cHPQqkTAcYIvOy0APe%2BQHsK0%2Fl0IVC9rs52dRlhekmujZeTLOw%2FOIfHxEAnkd0TaekhWZyGGXBkT60v%2FtzQuxh625C83ECRpIkfHDZBNomfdup686IywVc573bUg6ykhnn9ayHjO7OdV0gXd7LjZXYLrLp6g01FQMk3KjVLE18jXhVSa4ydTK3ubUvsmeO1VSjqa%2BV3HyiduQl9gjgYRIjW3KxUimCSWLJYitaAYEM1R9OiB8lICt1kBl4nvDjDMPW7W6%2BYPUwykZ8ECUeEIlQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "UXWt0LvLYNiC0PtZ9ZFJ", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1666907762670, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1672527600000, "question": "Will Twitter unban Destiny in 2022?", "slug": "will-twitter-unban-destiny-in-2022", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-unban-destiny-in-2022", "pool": {"NO": 252.2170587942138, "YES": 24161.022948945334}, "probability": 0.008638085884008872, "p": 0.4549493279559406, "totalLiquidity": 2010, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 616495.7128899316, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672578880591, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 1754, "lastUpdatedTime": 1673030152720, "lastBetTime": 1672526126718, "lastCommentTime": 1673030126574, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) is unbanned by Twitter before the end of 2022.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10860/who-will-twitter-unban-before-2023/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10860/who-will-twitter-unban-before-2023/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for full resolution criteria - this will resolve the same way. Basically resolves YES if Destiny is allowed back on Twitter with Twitter's permission, regardless of whether it's an old or new account.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Elon Musk moving closer to buying Twitter, will some people who were previously banned be unbanned?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FxyDkGEVB0i.png?alt=media&token=aa7196cf-a578-4d9d-be9f-716b556ba061", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Destiny (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II) is unbanned by Twitter before the end of 2022.\n\nSee https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10860/who-will-twitter-unban-before-2023/ for full resolution criteria - this will resolve the same way. Basically resolves YES if Destiny is allowed back on Twitter with Twitter's permission, regardless of whether it's an old or new account.\n\nWith Elon Musk moving closer to buying Twitter, will some people who were previously banned be unbanned?"}, {"id": "1vtchRMjh0XxKjxXNp6J", "creatorId": "91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1", "creatorUsername": "Bruce54df", "creatorName": "Bruce", "createdTime": 1702159098343, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJohJG8pV6APMRLAdPO5Up_LhSInhyxI1tRfhbmvspk=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704227321105, "question": "Will Harvard President, Claudine Gay, resign in next 6 months?", "slug": "will-harvard-president-claudine-gay", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Bruce54df/will-harvard-president-claudine-gay", "pool": {"NO": 13193.762071121553, "YES": 122.8945082214368}, "probability": 0.9945579393335239, "p": 0.6299418766395563, "totalLiquidity": 947.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25797.81633204839, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704227321105, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "91LeReENQxW6PoZiaY0XMeSzEdi1", "uniqueBettorCount": 61, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704227321740, "lastBetTime": 1704226140190, "lastCommentTime": 1703792644628, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "higher-education", "claudine-gay"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "351s0KpHj8CPoB7YX85a", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700420758578, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700970267170, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will #5 Florida State beat Florida?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-florida-state-beat", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-florida-state-beat", "pool": {"NO": 19176.531675145405, "YES": 66.55293647722738}, "probability": 0.9983788410466958, "p": 0.6812553037677863, "totalLiquidity": 570, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23103.994569440878, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700970267170, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700970258529, "lastBetTime": 1700970258406, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 7 PM ET in Gainesville, FL.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Line: Florida +9.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: Florida State 28, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Florida 37", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 2", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: Florida State 2, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Florida 3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "sec", "acc"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 7 PM ET in Gainesville, FL.\n\nLine: Florida +9.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: Florida State 28, Florida 37, Tie 2\n\nLast 5: Florida State 2, Florida 3, Tie 0"}, {"id": "an0H9eUgO5HeDLxMLJnK", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703083143914, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1704150000000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on January 1 than it closed on December 31?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-january-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-january-1", "pool": {"NO": 446.8596703669967, "YES": 107.01245366809822}, "probability": 0.8799999999999998, "p": 0.6371766308222678, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 341.3791317854967, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704155002549, "resolutionProbability": 0.88, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704155002745, "lastBetTime": 1704149574297, "lastCommentTime": 1704154996455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fd1676ff0c961.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "IzJDsndCyNQWl61zuppp", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678476708747, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679097421772, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Ron Desantis Tortured People (And Enjoyed It)\" reach 200k views by 3/17 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-ron-desantis-tort", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-ron-desantis-tort", "pool": {"NO": 6.592863466341441, "YES": 10641.07769328411}, "probability": 0.00036939091308130434, "p": 0.3736016572448071, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10586, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679097421772, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679097418863, "lastBetTime": 1679097418730, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/v_34D3xVeuU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/v_34D3xVeuU", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvOcPBotA38.png?alt=media&token=270f087b-e74b-4058-84d8-566d8c48ad37", "groupSlugs": ["vaush", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/v_34D3xVeuU\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "116edOq9opISidsWozCR", "creatorId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "creatorUsername": "Fion", "creatorName": "Fion", "createdTime": 1714471655061, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFion%2Ff0dUbpMbfK.webp?alt=media&token=a5756953-9fb6-4763-9c2e-6bc532e44aed", "closeTime": 1715010189641, "question": "Will there be a contest for the next SNP leader?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-contest-for-the-nex", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-there-be-a-contest-for-the-nex", "pool": {"NO": 14.383055725150086, "YES": 1724.2737476319192}, "probability": 0.01000000000000001, "p": 0.5477021134667452, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2186.0551216662366, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715010189641, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715010189641, "lastBetTime": 1715010138813, "lastCommentTime": 1715010164427, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, Humza Yousaf has resigned. So far, no candidates have officially put themselves forward. Pundits are speculating that there might just be a single candidate, rather than a contest requiring a vote by SNP members. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be such a contest? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "scotland", "scottish-politics"], "textDescription": "The First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, Humza Yousaf has resigned. So far, no candidates have officially put themselves forward. Pundits are speculating that there might just be a single candidate, rather than a contest requiring a vote by SNP members. \n\nWill there be such a contest? \n\nI may bet in this market. "}, {"id": "7QmpcH2dZEYK89QxR5Fd", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1713331809904, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1716213593883, "question": "Will Red Lobster file for bankruptcy before the end of November?", "slug": "will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-red-lobster-file-for-bankruptc", "pool": {"NO": 4700.886316699458, "YES": 92.27138292050722}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.6602363283031475, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4560.200581713438, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716213593883, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716213593883, "lastBetTime": 1716213588959, "lastCommentTime": 1715739272647, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FODgLOIDeSI.png?alt=media&token=b8e2b18c-a8fa-40b5-9aa2-f407c7a0a550", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["bankruptcy", "food", "companies", "business", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/red-lobster-mulls-filing-for-bankruptcy-to-fix-balance-sheet\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "lys1IUxz4lAY6r2szPjz", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081742135, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703890800000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 29 than it closed on December 28?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-26ad2d68ea6b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-26ad2d68ea6b", "pool": {"NO": 958.9201088371273, "YES": 113.82607677649938}, "probability": 0.9538671024039088, "p": 0.7105099290979382, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 790.3939092465044, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703904868132, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703904868459, "lastBetTime": 1703889574492, "lastCommentTime": 1703904862034, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "QnYJxbKP1ZRMrkHmFzo4", "creatorId": "xMWZZo6rKHho6PFiw8ERnGLqPfb2", "creatorUsername": "Beams", "creatorName": "Beams", "createdTime": 1693524902539, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBeams%2FHrWlGgkedk.png?alt=media&token=52cb7980-330d-4ac4-9b70-a1624bd0540b", "closeTime": 1704067983220, "question": "Will there be another Vally Incident\u2122 during 2023?", "slug": "will-there-be-another-vally-inciden-17a6e82891", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Beams/will-there-be-another-vally-inciden-17a6e82891", "pool": {"NO": 210.34231507902368, "YES": 119.80799405894844}, "probability": 0.7600000000000002, "p": 0.6433269755363563, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 278.17347085725885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704067983220, "resolutionProbability": 0.76, "resolverId": "xMWZZo6rKHho6PFiw8ERnGLqPfb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704067983895, "lastBetTime": 1693591340120, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you know, you know. (if a vid is filtered out by peej for... you know... this counts as a Vally Incident\u2122. It does not have to play on stream.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["coopxer", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "If you know, you know. (if a vid is filtered out by peej for... you know... this counts as a Vally Incident\u2122. It does not have to play on stream.)"}, {"id": "NhvbXeJeKvGpHUH8RVKR", "creatorId": "A6omDpe59ueNOlyqCgYhgbCL05I2", "creatorUsername": "octothorpe", "creatorName": "octothorpe", "createdTime": 1671264258114, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp6tbDKXAhRdj3ZSPc-7TND1_UeF-7xC_S1mdQ1V=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704052800000, "question": "Will the House of Representatives impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas before 2024?", "slug": "will-the-house-of-representatives-i", "url": "https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-the-house-of-representatives-i", "pool": {"NO": 209.0485072193859, "YES": 2754.8054638579356}, "probability": 0.024518545131173075, "p": 0.2488106502784826, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3582.4829242933647, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704490373944, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "A6omDpe59ueNOlyqCgYhgbCL05I2", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704490374223, "lastBetTime": 1704051665750, "lastCommentTime": 1700262619345, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if the House of Representatives passes a resolution impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas before the end of 2023 (whether or not the Senate takes any particular action on the impeachment).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FSVCtDd6c3O.png?alt=media&token=707f1062-53e8-4abb-ac3f-d81f9a5e4ca0", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "118th-congress", "politics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Context: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/\n\nThis market will resolve YES if the House of Representatives passes a resolution impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas before the end of 2023 (whether or not the Senate takes any particular action on the impeachment)."}, {"id": "17LtMz3f6APECJStgBEA", "creatorId": "gCq33ARt5ROQsfEjAe6p6uyGu612", "creatorUsername": "vmjusto", "creatorName": "VMJ", "createdTime": 1676300182074, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FViniciusJusto%2FmzPXWf_-1k.jpeg?alt=media&token=6f3c8112-08b2-43a7-abe3-b33d69c6f094", "closeTime": 1682640000000, "question": "Will Bryce Young be the first player selected overall in the 2023 NFL Draft?", "slug": "will-bryce-young-be-the-first-playe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/vmjusto/will-bryce-young-be-the-first-playe", "pool": {"NO": 513.0130641186062, "YES": 107.84555370344246}, "probability": 0.8320884607868818, "p": 0.5102236508721498, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 866.1409742272239, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682641215253, "resolutionProbability": 0.83, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682623060836, "lastBetTime": 1682623060666, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bryce Young is a quarterback prospect from the University of Alabama, winner of the Heisman Trophy in 2021.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves as YES regardless of which team selects him, as long as he is the first pick overall.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves as N/A if he cannot be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft for any reason.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FIBDpcmukqT.png?alt=media&token=39cda7fe-6051-4b70-b545-af59bc76a2a1", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl"], "textDescription": "Bryce Young is a quarterback prospect from the University of Alabama, winner of the Heisman Trophy in 2021.\n\nThis resolves as YES regardless of which team selects him, as long as he is the first pick overall.\n\nThis resolves as N/A if he cannot be selected in the 2023 NFL Draft for any reason."}, {"id": "lerE4KFTlLutdN5Qfaa3", "creatorId": "hktDoGotiibeCqa0Qyvvna4ZHtT2", "creatorUsername": "__nobody", "creatorName": "nobody", "createdTime": 1690144670316, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteJjs2O2Y0O5aH1ZNUxz56Qhb-bqU7eAbXeRsHE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will prediction streaks honor local time* by end of 2023?", "slug": "will-prediction-streaks-honor-local", "url": "https://manifold.markets/__nobody/will-prediction-streaks-honor-local", "pool": {"NO": 144.87056127447937, "YES": 2754.605527931215}, "probability": 0.033182022830949794, "p": 0.3948875827876111, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4063.2616770715204, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704307405821, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "hktDoGotiibeCqa0Qyvvna4ZHtT2", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704307406061, "lastBetTime": 1704000616058, "lastCommentTime": 1691743389338, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: I currently get a notification (from the app) in the middle of my night that my prediction streak will expire in 3 hours. By the time I'm awake again, it's way too late and the streak expired. That sucks. (\u1e4075 into the void, precisely\u2026 or more if I'm bummed about this and skip a few days.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES may resolve early. (I assume they're not adding and then removing such a relatively simple feature again.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"honor local time\" I mean the behavior of streaks / notifications was improved such that your location in the world confers way less of an advantage w.r.t. prediction streaks than it does now. The most obvious way to achieve that is to use e.g. local midnight as the cut-off point (like e.g. Duolingo does), another way would be to send the notification some time in the evening (e.g. somewhere around 7-10 pm local time) or make the time configurable, but there might also be other options that I can't think of right now. (Those might not strictly \"honor local time\", but still fix the main problem of \u2248useless notifications.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If prediction streaks as a feature are removed entirely, this N/As.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NB: \"NO\" resolution might take a while if I currently have a streak going (I'm not going to intentionally let it lapse), unless \"word of god\" confirms that things haven't improved and makes experimental verification unnecessary. (So far, my streaks were \u2264 2 weeks, and I don't expect improvement until/unless the app starts poking me in time.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-features-25bad7c7792e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Background: I currently get a notification (from the app) in the middle of my night that my prediction streak will expire in 3 hours. By the time I'm awake again, it's way too late and the streak expired. That sucks. (\u1e4075 into the void, precisely\u2026 or more if I'm bummed about this and skip a few days.)\n\nResolution:\n\nYES may resolve early. (I assume they're not adding and then removing such a relatively simple feature again.)\n\nBy \"honor local time\" I mean the behavior of streaks / notifications was improved such that your location in the world confers way less of an advantage w.r.t. prediction streaks than it does now. The most obvious way to achieve that is to use e.g. local midnight as the cut-off point (like e.g. Duolingo does), another way would be to send the notification some time in the evening (e.g. somewhere around 7-10 pm local time) or make the time configurable, but there might also be other options that I can't think of right now. (Those might not strictly \"honor local time\", but still fix the main problem of \u2248useless notifications.)\n\nIf prediction streaks as a feature are removed entirely, this N/As.\n\nNB: \"NO\" resolution might take a while if I currently have a streak going (I'm not going to intentionally let it lapse), unless \"word of god\" confirms that things haven't improved and makes experimental verification unnecessary. (So far, my streaks were \u2264 2 weeks, and I don't expect improvement until/unless the app starts poking me in time.)"}, {"id": "UvQXxjSFL8PAS4ueAR6x", "creatorId": "RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2", "creatorUsername": "rory", "creatorName": "Rory", "createdTime": 1707609460400, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Frory%2FUoeA-GfV4T.jpeg?alt=media&token=80004eaf-2397-43a9-8cf1-d1a4b8585b16", "closeTime": 1712846053358, "question": "Will Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy's 2023 compensation be greater than $1,298,723?", "slug": "will-amazon-ceo-andrew-jassys-2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/rory/will-amazon-ceo-andrew-jassys-2023", "pool": {"NO": 866, "YES": 103.3151018229961}, "probability": 0.972932787402844, "p": 0.8109033364346256, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 696, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712846100677, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "RQh0iCqMFvPKnRWwTfEtnUxsiZu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712846053358, "lastBetTime": 1712846007096, "lastCommentTime": 1707754420298, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the total pay for Andrew Jassy, as disclosed in the Summary Compensation Table of Amazon's 2024 proxy statement, is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "more than $1,298,723 for fiscal year 2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " then the market resolves to YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note on timing/potential approximate closing date; last year Amazon's proxy statement was released on April 13.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/rory%2Fb06f7e85f1d0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "If the total pay for Andrew Jassy, as disclosed in the Summary Compensation Table of Amazon's 2024 proxy statement, is more than $1,298,723 for fiscal year 2023 then the market resolves to YES. \n\nNote on timing/potential approximate closing date; last year Amazon's proxy statement was released on April 13."}, {"id": "WyoazzQDrj8ttVec23jZ", "creatorId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "creatorUsername": "brp", "creatorName": "Bjorn", "createdTime": 1671335860137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704150000000, "question": "Will Twitter pay fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-twitter-pay-fines-in-the-eu-by", "url": "https://manifold.markets/brp/will-twitter-pay-fines-in-the-eu-by", "pool": {"NO": 66.82348463393555, "YES": 10721.617111818989}, "probability": 0.006471867920049727, "p": 0.5110394761374013, "totalLiquidity": 1010, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15402.35801356707, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704154671887, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "uniqueBettorCount": 63, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451929780, "lastBetTime": 1704142789655, "lastCommentTime": 1704142801805, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There has been a lot of discussion in the media about the EU using the \"Media Freedom Act\" to punish Elon Musk's Twitter. I just discovered that this Act has not been made into EU law yet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Twitter pay any fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES as soon as proof is posted to the comments. Resolves midnight on Jan 2nd Brussels time if NO, on the theory that media reports might lag on-the-ground events by 24 hours.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdFZGmrjVOV.png?alt=media&token=d742f274-d4ac-45c3-902a-d5e79fe8e91c", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "european-union"], "textDescription": "There has been a lot of discussion in the media about the EU using the \"Media Freedom Act\" to punish Elon Musk's Twitter. I just discovered that this Act has not been made into EU law yet.\n\nWill Twitter pay any fines in the EU by Jan 1, 2024?\n\nResolves YES as soon as proof is posted to the comments. Resolves midnight on Jan 2nd Brussels time if NO, on the theory that media reports might lag on-the-ground events by 24 hours."}, {"id": "ofUWeVUmyeVbolz6XZzB", "creatorId": "EB38gVKAlYQHulWNFyZ7pnyT7Um1", "creatorUsername": "HelenD", "creatorName": "Helen D", "createdTime": 1698701845603, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHelenD%2F5kW8vKRZjz.jpg?alt=media&token=7da68fff-2d93-4455-a6d4-fbf0f3574e49", "closeTime": 1698822173342, "question": "Will Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks \u26be\ufe0f 10/31/2023?", "slug": "will-texas-rangers-beat-arizona-dia-34995b733420", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HelenD/will-texas-rangers-beat-arizona-dia-34995b733420", "pool": {"NO": 16797.78705618781, "YES": 154.39932120394164}, "probability": 0.9983111694974675, "p": 0.8445616504906569, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17833.08983334234, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698822173342, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698820378317, "lastBetTime": 1698820378203, "lastCommentTime": 1698797746877, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game Oct 31 @AZ 5:03PM Pacific Time", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "mlb", "baseball"], "textDescription": "Game Oct 31 @AZ 5:03PM Pacific Time"}, {"id": "r1OQnbKX2dMpgRuXqi7i", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691207206347, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691622000000, "question": "Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher August 9th Than August 8th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-f2b873f45817", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-a-f2b873f45817", "pool": {"NO": 248.8287778188199, "YES": 284.7621167831267}, "probability": 0.4013965989664669, "p": 0.4341939125192031, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2526.6146729958577, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691626633465, "resolutionProbability": 0.4, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691626632497, "lastBetTime": 1691621876732, "lastCommentTime": 1691626630405, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 8th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fx4mpLpc3sS.png?alt=media&token=21b42666-a65d-4868-a89e-c7647fc91dc3", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "economics-default", "finance"], "textDescription": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 8th Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "geoAAPVHgg9VUgl9WAOb", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1703199128627, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1704204000000, "question": "[Metaculus] Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "slug": "metaculus-will-there-be-a-us-milita", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-there-be-a-us-milita", "pool": {"NO": 151.0585413906897, "YES": 3604.6875634526177}, "probability": 0.007199922822510488, "p": 0.14752627659649423, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3902.9090382032364, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704313440445, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704313440685, "lastBetTime": 1704190508134, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20739/us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20739/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20739/us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F9ad35cef37f8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus"], "textDescription": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20739/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "zeIfvJSojNlUASIZFLn4", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1690246271093, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Israel judicial reform: will the government take majority control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges, in 2023?", "slug": "will-israel-pass-a-bill-giving-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-israel-pass-a-bill-giving-the", "pool": {"NO": 103.53778001693289, "YES": 858.6050818032295}, "probability": 0.057768048572316266, "p": 0.3370556179541479, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1688.4510372037746, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704135844967, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704135845252, "lastBetTime": 1704051257336, "lastCommentTime": 1691483848558, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the Knesset passes a bill in 2023 which gives the government majority control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges, i.e. coalition appointed members form the majority of the Supreme Court selection committee.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "1ac5afd1-90af-4528-b588-7f6938f7b148", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871", "image": "https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/EE2D/production/_129137906_mediaitem129137905.jpg", "title": "Israel judicial reform: What is the crisis about?", "inputKey": "create marketWill Israel pass the judicial reform bill?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Israel has been gripped by months of mass protests against government plans. Here\u2019s why.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israeli-politics", "politics-default", "world-default", "israel", "asia", "israeli-domestic-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Context:\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform\n\nResolves YES if the Knesset passes a bill in 2023 which gives the government majority control over the appointment of Supreme Court judges, i.e. coalition appointed members form the majority of the Supreme Court selection committee.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "VY64KaHdsrMkPLmQoKig", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1705631156173, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714622389950, "question": "Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e77c463d2e39", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-the-sp-500-index-close-higher-e77c463d2e39", "pool": {"NO": 28.491225617925803, "YES": 3967.3975346715365}, "probability": 0.005786661014328057, "p": 0.44766071098885546, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4556.099693076015, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714660762958, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714622389950, "lastBetTime": 1714596141590, "lastCommentTime": 1714660673640, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves to No otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2Ff1bb3d2dc9bb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks"], "textDescription": "Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 01, 2024 compared to the previous trading day. \nResolves to No otherwise.\n\nResolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data \nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX"}, {"id": "0jYX8dPNFhYiHcE1jIM1", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1707007749386, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709269260560, "question": "Will there be more than 16,400 Starbucks stores in the US at the end of Feb 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-more-than-16400-starb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-there-be-more-than-16400-starb", "pool": {"NO": 56735.81597156071, "YES": 18.34261366607825}, "probability": 0.9998786008562642, "p": 0.726983456519641, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 57567.065980247804, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709269260560, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709269262277, "lastBetTime": 1709269257352, "lastCommentTime": 1709269249314, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution according to the numbers provided by Scrapehero", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will review this webpage at the end of the month and use the number of stores reported at that time as the resolution number. Note that these numbers could be several weeks old, depending on when the latest update occurred.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AmmonLam%2F40ab513ae559.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["brands", "mcdonalds", "restaurants"], "textDescription": "\nResolution according to the numbers provided by Scrapehero\nhttps://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Starbucks-USA/#:~:text=How%20can%20I%20download%20a,hours%20from%20our%20data%20store.\n\nI will review this webpage at the end of the month and use the number of stores reported at that time as the resolution number. Note that these numbers could be several weeks old, depending on when the latest update occurred."}, {"id": "f33qyCzhdlhh07T945qL", "creatorId": "V9SoL43RsoaSsW3JRwFLxXwqX0F2", "creatorUsername": "archvenison", "creatorName": "archvenison", "createdTime": 1685364304194, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0NY6clika_1PCKGW590KsS9pTT4dyXTM2h1_Cb=s96-c", "closeTime": 1690216308233, "question": "Will the New Democracy party win a majority of seats in the June 2023 Greek Legislative election?", "slug": "will-the-new-democracy-party-win-a-732e441f5bc3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/archvenison/will-the-new-democracy-party-win-a-732e441f5bc3", "pool": {"NO": 2010.9803965891945, "YES": 81.68203967817044}, "probability": 0.9886984911692964, "p": 0.7803847104165262, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2379.8219644950614, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690216332501, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689856215184, "lastBetTime": 1689856215051, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In the May 2023 election, New Democracy won the most seats but fell short of an overall majority.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F189RMUjFao.png?alt=media&token=edb5df8a-ad90-4218-abfd-d140fdb1f8d2", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "In the May 2023 election, New Democracy won the most seats but fell short of an overall majority."}, {"id": "gLQnCAX70gVkifUGkgmy", "creatorId": "3XYZN0afx2X9H1Uzjf9kFSWpbIl1", "creatorUsername": "dagnazty", "creatorName": "Daggy", "createdTime": 1691893169225, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdagnazty%2FaVldizbTTc.png?alt=media&token=ddc8213c-e7e8-49c5-b259-c7456eb239bc", "closeTime": 1692226800000, "question": "Will XMR (XMR/USD) close higher on August 16 than it closed on August 15?", "slug": "will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-508b38a7b52b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dagnazty/will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-508b38a7b52b", "pool": {"NO": 123.10059610541818, "YES": 248.18659210274615}, "probability": 0.3299080428966295, "p": 0.4981445036455131, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1922.5511218861095, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1692238000813, "resolutionProbability": 0.33, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692237990019, "lastBetTime": 1692226606314, "lastCommentTime": 1692237982143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": $154.9611", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is experimental.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "265e317f-7381-4c4f-8e50-069cb2e3e121", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Monero (XMR) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Monero (XMR / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $154.9611\n\nThis market is experimental.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "hGcCwLZuAssAHuler7JO", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1667471511386, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1681682340000, "question": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023?", "slug": "will-a-new-sarscov2-variant-be-more", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-a-new-sarscov2-variant-be-more", "pool": {"NO": 82.15979399922864, "YES": 5982.4625088249695}, "probability": 0.003347251605190257, "p": 0.19649580471492972, "totalLiquidity": 280, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6922.0463474349135, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1681720786844, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206845057, "lastBetTime": 1681674450038, "lastCommentTime": 1667471573292, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see \"%Total\"). ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to YES if before April 16, 2023, variant OTHER THAN OMICRON represents more than 70.00% share of Total Covid cases in the US.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached\u2014and weeks including \"Nowcast\" estimates (i.e., columns with \"NOWCAST\" at the top) would count\u2014or else the week ending 15 April 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 3, 12:48pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70.0% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKxgrETrshe.png?alt=media&token=a6f04380-094e-44fd-bc7f-97941747afe0", "groupSlugs": ["health", "covid-d7a9361d772d", "gj-open", "the-economist-the-world-ahead-2023", "good-judgement"], "textDescription": "The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). \n\nThe CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. \n\nFor the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see \"%Total\"). \n\nThis market will resolve to YES if before April 16, 2023, variant OTHER THAN OMICRON represents more than 70.00% share of Total Covid cases in the US.\n\nThe question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached\u2014and weeks including \"Nowcast\" estimates (i.e., columns with \"NOWCAST\" at the top) would count\u2014or else the week ending 15 April 2023.\n\nIf the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.\n\nNov 3, 12:48pm: Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70.0% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023? \u2192 Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be more than 70% of total US cases before Apr 16, 2023?"}, {"id": "bzmyGjrZ01yMbHmQxmAq", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1704975472797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1705436665219, "question": "[Metaculus] Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "slug": "metaculus-will-nikki-haley-finish-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-nikki-haley-finish-2", "pool": {"NO": 159.10080840934248, "YES": 24944.254896846604}, "probability": 0.00104157260623814, "p": 0.140502736251924, "totalLiquidity": 790, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34852.754498118156, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705436665219, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 40, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705436665891, "lastBetTime": 1705436270204, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Nikki Haley wins the second-most ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "bound delegates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2Fafe21ca71f4b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "2024-us-presidential-election", "nikki-haley", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries"], "textDescription": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThe question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins the second-most bound delegates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "cJvfVeoaPMkiAzeyXyMA", "creatorId": "Oh0L7bpPyXSmexPTtqHzVmiylgC3", "creatorUsername": "Voidian", "creatorName": "The Void", "createdTime": 1666814248149, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FVoidian%2FVaYRjB77Ph.jpeg?alt=media&token=18f50896-09dd-4102-a9ee-6bd525f7fbcc", "closeTime": 1668188610941, "question": "Will Destiny be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023?", "slug": "will-destiny-steven-bonnell-be-on-l", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Voidian/will-destiny-steven-bonnell-be-on-l", "pool": {"NO": 44769.48530247898, "YES": 5017.558139332037}, "probability": 0.9682610181148149, "p": 0.7737087585293039, "totalLiquidity": 9340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 64090.28007135241, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1668188610941, "resolutionProbability": 0.9682610181148148, "uniqueBettorCount": 216, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668187777331, "lastBetTime": 1668187777170, "lastCommentTime": 1668187659466, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny appears as a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast within the year 2022 the market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Destiny does not appear as a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast within the year 2022 the market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lex Fridman appearing on Destiny's show would resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "unless ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "Lex Fridman uploads it on his channel as a podcast episode.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For practical reasons only the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "full video", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "video trailer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", of the podcast being posted in 2022 will count. This is so that the video of them together and timestamp of it is clear proof. Tweets or on stream comments will ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NOT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " apply as there is more ambiguity  (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "see Destiny's Jordan Peterson debate announcement", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve on 2023-01-01 at 12:00 AM UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 27, 9:18am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Destiny (Steven Bonnell) be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Destiny be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FzHuLHG9Aeb.png?alt=media&token=727f5f09-7353-4276-998c-34e1dd21d018", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "If Destiny appears as a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast within the year 2022 the market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Destiny does not appear as a guest on Lex Fridman's podcast within the year 2022 the market will resolve to NO.\n\nLex Fridman appearing on Destiny's show would resolve to NO, unless Lex Fridman uploads it on his channel as a podcast episode.\n\nFor practical reasons only the full video, or video trailer, of the podcast being posted in 2022 will count. This is so that the video of them together and timestamp of it is clear proof. Tweets or on stream comments will NOT apply as there is more ambiguity  (see Destiny's Jordan Peterson debate announcement).\n\nThe market will resolve on 2023-01-01 at 12:00 AM UTC.\n\nOct 27, 9:18am: Will Destiny (Steven Bonnell) be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023? \u2192 Will Destiny be on Lex Fridman's Podcast before January 1st, 2023?"}, {"id": "UJjMjRFPXSH0V0PT04bD", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1689890822044, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1690075166726, "question": "Will Bryan Barberena beat Makhmud Muradov?", "slug": "will-bryan-barberena-beat-makhmud-m", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-bryan-barberena-beat-makhmud-m", "pool": {"NO": 38.167422657148975, "YES": 5092.996551863243}, "probability": 0.0012986765165497339, "p": 0.14786178713119089, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6103.8042568157625, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690075166726, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690057717255, "lastBetTime": 1690057717094, "lastCommentTime": 1690048575683, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bryan Barberena and Makhmud Muradov are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Bryan Barberena wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Makhmud Muradov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["mma"], "textDescription": "Bryan Barberena and Makhmud Muradov are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. \n\nIf Bryan Barberena wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Makhmud Muradov wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "N6dNH5fYZmc6SOXpgP6X", "creatorId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "creatorUsername": "StopPunting", "creatorName": "Stop Punting", "createdTime": 1704736765765, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStoppunting%2FU_8wwZ-g5O.jpg?alt=media&token=c92d2477-27aa-4e8b-9dd4-50d1db23bb5f", "closeTime": 1705294740000, "question": "2024 predictions - Matthew Yglesias vs Manifold: Claudia Sheinbaum elected President of Mexico", "slug": "2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/2024-predictions-matthew-yglesias-v-0555d8210285", "pool": {"NO": 155.00000000000003, "YES": 60.38149085447062}, "probability": 0.8085348688745183, "p": 0.6219364455637398, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 65, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717420724735, "resolutionProbability": 0.81, "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705294740000, "lastBetTime": 1704763970630, "lastCommentTime": 1709142035291, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "A time-sensitive copy of this market:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/RodrigoMorales/will-claudia-sheinbaum-win-the-mexi", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "This market closes on 1/14/2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Why not just use the percentage that day from the original market (since this could just be seen as an arb)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "B.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "C.) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "D.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Even though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matt predicts 70% for this question", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matt's calibration for reference:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F03Evzjc9l4.png?alt=media&token=2d2f6ff3-892b-478f-b497-3d255252a778", "title": null}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting%2F5a2b016c5fc1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["mexican-politics", "2024-matt-yglesias-predictions", "politics-default", "elections", "mexico", "elections-world"], "textDescription": "A time-sensitive copy of this market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/RodrigoMorales/will-claudia-sheinbaum-win-the-mexi)This market closes on 1/14/2024.\n\nThis is so we can measure Manifold's calibration against Yglesias' at the relative same point in time given enough traders (which I could make a further meta-market on). Manifold will have a 2 week advantage, but I want it to catch on (I also probably won't add the sports predictions which will obviously give Manifold an advantage). I will also resolve N/A if this actually occurs during the period before 1/14/2024.\n\nWhy not just use the percentage that day from the original market (since this could just be seen as an arb)?\n\nA.) It creates urgency/a deadline for an actual prediction, its possible bettors are just trying to ride waves for profit, while also potentially drawing early interest/bettors to the topic that might have waited to bet until later.\nB.) It will be easier for me to compile later to reference the markets.\nC.) The market will close on 1/14 so it won't be clogging anything up market listings with redundancy for long.\nD.) It might actually be interesting to see if the markets are Arb'd on 1/14.\n\nEven though it closes on 1/14/2023, it will resolve when the linked market resolves.\n\nMatt predicts 70% for this question\n\nhttps://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "TzeTykOSxUhA4Ixiq33w", "creatorId": "YULeL6TvTLZXddwJJBKiKKKPy8h2", "creatorUsername": "SteveMichaels", "creatorName": "Steve Michaels", "createdTime": 1653255449455, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMikeStrayer%2Farms%20are%20for%20hugging.jpg?alt=media&token=c0f6d3a5-478e-4dfc-b292-0b3c0f349171", "closeTime": 1669870800000, "question": "Will Miami Beach suffer structural damages due to a hurricane this season?", "slug": "will-miami-beach-suffer-structural", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SteveMichaels/will-miami-beach-suffer-structural", "pool": {"NO": 134.1798305561312, "YES": 500.2345065452874}, "probability": 0.1268158871862547, "p": 0.3512580196357471, "totalLiquidity": 221.90620718757822, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 591.1170518457726, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1669915525227, "resolutionProbability": 0.1268158871862547, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1669814782382, "lastBetTime": 1669814782246, "lastCommentTime": 1669560783151, "description": "Hurricane season is June 1st through November 30th, and historically, most hurricanes have struck in September or October: http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/hurricanes\n\nMany sources cite Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as the last hurricane to inflict major damages in Miami broadly, but Miami Beach was almost totally spared: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Andrew_in_Florida\n\nThis market resolves to \"YES\" if Miami Beach \u2014 defined as the legal municipality extending from North Beach Oceanside Park to South Pointe Park Pier \u2014 is reported in local or national US news to have suffered any form of building damages due to hurricane winds or associated flooding (e.g., broken windows, displaced roofing, water damage). Power outages, dirt on windows, trees that fell but did not hit any buildings, and damages to small or easily moveable objects (e.g., cars, fences, satellite dishes) would NOT count. This market resolves to \"NO\" if no such structural damages have been reported in any local or national US news outlet by the close of hurricane season on December 1, 2022.\n\nMay 22, 5:37pm: Another event worth considering is Hurricane Irma from 2017. At first, I thought the only damage to Miami Beach was beach erosion (which would not count), but it looks like at least a few buildings are reported to have been damaged as well: https://redsouthbeach.com/blog/hurricane-irma-south-beach/", "groupSlugs": ["world-default"], "textDescription": "Hurricane season is June 1st through November 30th, and historically, most hurricanes have struck in September or October: http://climatecenter.fsu.edu/topics/hurricanes\n\nMany sources cite Hurricane Andrew in 1992 as the last hurricane to inflict major damages in Miami broadly, but Miami Beach was almost totally spared: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Andrew_in_Florida\n\nThis market resolves to \"YES\" if Miami Beach \u2014 defined as the legal municipality extending from North Beach Oceanside Park to South Pointe Park Pier \u2014 is reported in local or national US news to have suffered any form of building damages due to hurricane winds or associated flooding (e.g., broken windows, displaced roofing, water damage). Power outages, dirt on windows, trees that fell but did not hit any buildings, and damages to small or easily moveable objects (e.g., cars, fences, satellite dishes) would NOT count. This market resolves to \"NO\" if no such structural damages have been reported in any local or national US news outlet by the close of hurricane season on December 1, 2022.\n\nMay 22, 5:37pm: Another event worth considering is Hurricane Irma from 2017. At first, I thought the only damage to Miami Beach was beach erosion (which would not count), but it looks like at least a few buildings are reported to have been damaged as well: https://redsouthbeach.com/blog/hurricane-irma-south-beach/"}, {"id": "aNdY8rM367tpitq0cNGz", "creatorId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "creatorUsername": "GoncaloM", "creatorName": "Gon\u00e7alo M", "createdTime": 1704724299859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705094096304, "question": "Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $138.58 per share on January 12, 2024?", "slug": "will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-7b76673b1dcf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-amds-nasdaq-ticker-amd-stock-p-7b76673b1dcf", "pool": {"NO": 1340.1487174239558, "YES": 191.89604580856334}, "probability": 0.9761512363939574, "p": 0.8542465157354097, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2463.4105040890595, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705094096304, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705094097214, "lastBetTime": 1705079471823, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $138.58 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $138.58 USD during the week will not count towards this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/GoncaloM%2F6386eff10221.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["gpu", "tech-stocks", "amd", "stocks", "technology-default", "wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $138.58 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $138.58 USD during the week will not count towards this market.\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ"}, {"id": "vIqmpd0k23WpIgcxS0pt", "creatorId": "8aL0bcA8V7hpAUjc5d0UZmvVuY72", "creatorUsername": "samb", "creatorName": "sam", "createdTime": 1693577044426, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fsamb%2F5ZZlomjRmV.jpeg?alt=media&token=ae1faf16-5056-4b40-9707-b12368eaba46", "closeTime": 1705081289782, "question": "Will Walter Isaacson's Elon Musk biography outsell Michael Lewis's Sam Bankman-Fried biography in 2023?", "slug": "will-walter-isaacsons-elon-musk-bio", "url": "https://manifold.markets/samb/will-walter-isaacsons-elon-musk-bio", "pool": {"NO": 3565.770607623289, "YES": 204.7733269409517}, "probability": 0.988989629477002, "p": 0.8376185241286705, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3768.137551832592, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705081289782, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "8aL0bcA8V7hpAUjc5d0UZmvVuY72", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451957269, "lastBetTime": 1705054492008, "lastCommentTime": 1705042394960, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resovles according to Publisher's Weekly reporting on number of copies sold, similar to this list published for 2022. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/91256-colleen-hoover-was-queen-of-2022-s-bestseller-list.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/91256-colleen-hoover-was-queen-of-2022-s-bestseller-list.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". If not available, I will use another reputable source that measures only the number of copies sold. If I can't find any sources, I will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Isaacson's biography is titled Elon Musk and will likely be published Sep 11", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lewis's biography is titled Going Infinite and will likely be published Oct 3", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "books", "sbf-trial", "ftx-liquidity-crisis-nov-2022"], "textDescription": "Resovles according to Publisher's Weekly reporting on number of copies sold, similar to this list published for 2022. https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/bookselling/article/91256-colleen-hoover-was-queen-of-2022-s-bestseller-list.html. If not available, I will use another reputable source that measures only the number of copies sold. If I can't find any sources, I will resolve N/A.\n\nIsaacson's biography is titled Elon Musk and will likely be published Sep 11\n\nLewis's biography is titled Going Infinite and will likely be published Oct 3"}, {"id": "Qyj1BhEj8eFvKXEdzvjg", "creatorId": "iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1", "creatorUsername": "MickBransfield", "creatorName": "Mick Bransfield", "createdTime": 1711678406819, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7wtbRzM8LxtnW8APyehAwWYjCwYtgGP9I_hQ5S=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714535940000, "question": "Will Adeel Mangi be confirmed by the U.S. Senate before May 1st?", "slug": "will-adeel-mangi-be-confirmed-by-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MickBransfield/will-adeel-mangi-be-confirmed-by-th", "pool": {"NO": 179.635544139045, "YES": 3632.048293327511}, "probability": 0.03031712742686369, "p": 0.3873098616636718, "totalLiquidity": 607.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3502.274089846726, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714564006089, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "iTQO3gSfwWeu1D70TyOxP5x4r3f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714535940000, "lastBetTime": 1714500752525, "lastCommentTime": 1712792435959, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Adeel A. Mangi be confirmed by the full U.S. Senate as a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey before May 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "President Joe Biden nominated Adeel Mangi to be the first Muslim American judge on a federal appeals court.  Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority (including caucusing independents) in the U.S. Senate, but Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), and Joe Manchin III (D-W", "type": "text"}, {"text": ".", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://D-W.Va", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Va.) have all said they will not vote for Mangi.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If Mangi is confirmed for this judgeship by midnight ET on April 30, 2024, then the market will resolve YES. \u00a0Otherwise it will resolve NO. \u00a0If he is confirmed May 1, 2024, or later, the market will still resolve NO. \u00a0If his nomination is withdrawn, the market will resolve NO. \u00a0If no action is taken by the U.S. Senate before May 1, 2024, then the market will resolve NO. \u00a0", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Ballotpedia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Adeel_Mangi", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "US Senate panel narrowly advances Muslim federal appellate court nominee", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-senate-panel-narrowly-advances-muslim-federal-appellate-court-nominee-2024-01-18/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "With 3rd Democratic senator opposed, Biden judicial nominee in jeopardy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/28/adeel-mangi-judicial-nominee-biden/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["us-judiciary", "us-senate", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "Will Adeel A. Mangi be confirmed by the full U.S. Senate as a U.S. Circuit Judge for the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in New Jersey before May 1, 2024?\n\nPresident Joe Biden nominated Adeel Mangi to be the first Muslim American judge on a federal appeals court.  Democrats currently have a 51-49 majority (including caucusing independents) in the U.S. Senate, but Democratic Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), and Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) have all said they will not vote for Mangi.\n\nIf Mangi is confirmed for this judgeship by midnight ET on April 30, 2024, then the market will resolve YES. \u00a0Otherwise it will resolve NO. \u00a0If he is confirmed May 1, 2024, or later, the market will still resolve NO. \u00a0If his nomination is withdrawn, the market will resolve NO. \u00a0If no action is taken by the U.S. Senate before May 1, 2024, then the market will resolve NO. \u00a0\n\nThis market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances. The market creator will not trade in this market.\n\nBackground:\n\nBallotpedia\nUS Senate panel narrowly advances Muslim federal appellate court nominee\nWith 3rd Democratic senator opposed, Biden judicial nominee in jeopardy\n"}, {"id": "6L7A2jjvxCHu8L5EdYp2", "creatorId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "creatorUsername": "DAL59", "creatorName": "DAL59", "createdTime": 1671407789813, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh18XuyDd8v-_GhfbA3eCH2pXdMihBRx0xJ3hQw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will Belarus begin a land invasion of Ukraine from the north by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-belarus-begin-a-land-invasion-38552308dbe3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DAL59/will-belarus-begin-a-land-invasion-38552308dbe3", "pool": {"NO": 1075.8559118262503, "YES": 8563.729310338967}, "probability": 0.03294553074038059, "p": 0.21332808631513986, "totalLiquidity": 1750, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15540.123425814912, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704084345889, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "wrbsjXVvQPSO1NJHYBG3RBuzoO63", "uniqueBettorCount": 97, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704084346515, "lastBetTime": 1703594995373, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(It must be an invasion from the current Belarussian-Ukrainian border, so sending troops to the current eastern front on the Russian border would not count, and Belarussian troops must make up a significant portion of the invasion force)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "wars", "belarus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "(It must be an invasion from the current Belarussian-Ukrainian border, so sending troops to the current eastern front on the Russian border would not count, and Belarussian troops must make up a significant portion of the invasion force)"}, {"id": "TbfGa870Vp9IwcICcIYD", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1682073335365, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1692857122062, "question": "Will Chris Christie appear in a televised Republican Primary debate by the end of August?", "slug": "will-chris-christie-appear-in-a-tel", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-chris-christie-appear-in-a-tel", "pool": {"NO": 23619.80666954256, "YES": 239.90126208222136}, "probability": 0.9975783672433028, "p": 0.8070999335843781, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 33428.4782050621, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692857122062, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456572372, "lastBetTime": 1692857115541, "lastCommentTime": 1692916492959, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Chris Christie appear in this or any other official (GOP sanctioned) televised primary debate by the end of August?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FrUng6UoBxN.png?alt=media&token=1566ffbd-3b2f-4dae-aacc-05a58404f26d", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election"], "textDescription": "The GOP have announced that first debate for the Republican nomination for President will take place in August and be shown on Fox News:\n\nhttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/us/politics/republican-primary-debate-milwaukee.html\n\nWill Chris Christie appear in this or any other official (GOP sanctioned) televised primary debate by the end of August?"}, {"id": "agCipvhIjNz4AKiSIono", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1673358476444, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "International affairs 2023: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO?", "slug": "international-affairs-2023-turkey-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/international-affairs-2023-turkey-a", "pool": {"NO": 75.25068769413474, "YES": 10902.661063274343}, "probability": 0.009706235077033437, "p": 0.5867882792432755, "totalLiquidity": 1900, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 167551.23734734903, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704113684145, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 146, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704113686652, "lastBetTime": 1704065379529, "lastCommentTime": 1704113680849, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "group ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/2023-matt-yglesias-predictions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "to bet on them all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Matthew Yglesias", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/mattyglesias", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Slow Boring", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://slowboring.com", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Recently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjIXUofaxZ3.png?alt=media&token=30946ed3-659c-496b-b0fa-d780a9c4e319", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2023-matt-yglesias-predictions", "turkey", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.\n\nMatthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.\n\nRecently he made many predictions on international affairs, published on \nhttps://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:\n\n[image]\n"}, {"id": "IT0hNO37jnX546g5Cwbl", "creatorId": "s3YhpYxOiWX1WXgaxMNZTpHN8k02", "creatorUsername": "Dennis5a87", "creatorName": "Dennis", "createdTime": 1693350374004, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7f04sabjWumSvXD60aKkzSpQP9PpUHWn66bj7e=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693556585299, "question": "Will Starfield be cracked within a week after it's official release? (12th of September)", "slug": "will-starfield-be-cracked-within-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Dennis5a87/will-starfield-be-cracked-within-a", "pool": {"NO": 1036.9674267717023, "YES": 36.407832584985144}, "probability": 0.9700000000000001, "p": 0.5316642743178867, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2188.551198672261, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693556585299, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693556653164, "lastBetTime": 1693556547694, "lastCommentTime": 1693556652782, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A crack must be publicly available before the 13th of September for this market to resolve YES. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Keep in mind that Early Access starts on the 1st of September, but for this market only the offical release date counts.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["starfield", "gaming", "bethesda", "video-games"], "textDescription": "A crack must be publicly available before the 13th of September for this market to resolve YES. \n\nKeep in mind that Early Access starts on the 1st of September, but for this market only the offical release date counts."}, {"id": "NJtjuUywLnrFcqwTCUsN", "creatorId": "FxoytNAwGhbZdiyrfxzgho20Ay13", "creatorUsername": "dokumor8", "creatorName": "dokumor8", "createdTime": 1670391534925, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fl8doku%2FU5ntquZ54D.jpg?alt=media&token=b2d8f3f3-be20-4ce1-ad9e-ed0a5b2333ff", "closeTime": 1673049540000, "question": "Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2023?", "slug": "will-a-forwardforward-neural-networ", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dokumor8/will-a-forwardforward-neural-networ", "pool": {"NO": 97.778460745101, "YES": 1468.6857991577301}, "probability": 0.1000000000000002, "p": 0.6253207457641619, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5706.451214106524, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1673149448891, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1673149419887, "lastBetTime": 1673044038712, "lastCommentTime": 1673149373700, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Forward-Forward Algorithm is a new type of neural network training algorithm that's supposed to replace backpropagation. It was proposed by Geoffrey Hinton recently.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to the paper: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link to a Twitter thread with a less technical explanation: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/martin_gorner/status/1599755684941557761", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/martin_gorner/status/1599755684941557761", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Right now there is no implementation available publicly as far as I can tell, but the architecture is described in detail and it shouldn't be too difficult to implement even if the original code isn't released.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if by 2023-01-07 (UTC+0) the original code is released or the algorithm is implemented by someone else and the implemetation is released publicly (for example on GitHub). A reimplementation should achieve similar results on MNIST and CIFAR-10 to the results reported in the paper.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 7, 10:39am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2022?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FAXNv25AIvG.png?alt=media&token=7a854dd8-028a-41c2-aa0b-69ef98e46ea7", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "technology-default", "ai"], "textDescription": "Forward-Forward Algorithm is a new type of neural network training algorithm that's supposed to replace backpropagation. It was proposed by Geoffrey Hinton recently.\n\nLink to the paper: https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf\n\nLink to a Twitter thread with a less technical explanation: https://twitter.com/martin_gorner/status/1599755684941557761\n\nRight now there is no implementation available publicly as far as I can tell, but the architecture is described in detail and it shouldn't be too difficult to implement even if the original code isn't released.\n\nResolves \"YES\" if by 2023-01-07 (UTC+0) the original code is released or the algorithm is implemented by someone else and the implemetation is released publicly (for example on GitHub). A reimplementation should achieve similar results on MNIST and CIFAR-10 to the results reported in the paper.\n\nDec 7, 10:39am: Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2022? \u2192 Will a Forward-Forward neural network implementation be publicly available before Jan 7th 2023?"}, {"id": "vrAr3QvQ8SbmOyPxMFJG", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1692215144243, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1692929157168, "question": "Will a Trump mugshot be available by September 30?", "slug": "will-a-trump-mugshot-be-available-b-db3d1dc7c796", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-trump-mugshot-be-available-b-db3d1dc7c796", "pool": {"NO": 24861.084175043696, "YES": 117.98458165823286}, "probability": 0.9978599076977444, "p": 0.6887450688320845, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 32252.460789548175, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692929157168, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692929151174, "lastBetTime": 1692929151035, "lastCommentTime": 1692926594070, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if an official mugshot of ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 is made widely available to the public by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if an official mugshot of Donald Trump becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "law-order", "trump-indictments"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if an official mugshot of ex-president Donald John Trump taken after July 31 is made widely available to the public by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, resolves NO.\n\nThis market resolves YES if an official mugshot of Donald Trump becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government."}, {"id": "I0K79ODxU0Poos25al0Z", "creatorId": "p3ADzwIUS3fk0ka80XYEE3OM3S32", "creatorUsername": "PC", "creatorName": "PC", "createdTime": 1687587166277, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPC%2FYCkfuz1Bxk.jpg?alt=media&token=e04bca46-ddf3-4829-995f-8bc656d60173", "closeTime": 1687751940000, "question": "Will the Wagner Group attack Moscow on June 25th?", "slug": "will-the-wagner-group-attack-moscow-fd719adc36e1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PC/will-the-wagner-group-attack-moscow-fd719adc36e1", "pool": {"NO": 348.8199663236759, "YES": 25560.011263865923}, "probability": 0.002558557226061943, "p": 0.15822142732697453, "totalLiquidity": 830, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34910.81019924966, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1687752063214, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 42, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687729704561, "lastBetTime": 1687729704455, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if reported by a reputable news source. Ideally, 100+ Wagner soldiers OR resistance is met from the Russia military in Moscow."}, {"id": "3VmFMwyQ9vGtEWXNalod", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1672098556378, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "2023 Medvedev's Predictions #2: Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union?", "slug": "2023-medvedevs-predictions-2-will-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2023-medvedevs-predictions-2-will-t", "pool": {"NO": 332.2187808415592, "YES": 1223.3144796603176}, "probability": 0.01712407314307998, "p": 0.06028620088090319, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1436.4150662359025, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704219766755, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704219814527, "lastBetTime": 1703985785555, "lastCommentTime": 1704219813840, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve most objectively, according to credible reports' consensus and with a little help from this community.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1607487342549286914"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F6EbwnNMcwO.png?alt=media&token=43c4fba5-ff8a-4e74-980d-0cdc04889e3a", "groupSlugs": ["2023", "medvedevs-2023-predictions", "ukrainerussia-war", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev. \n\n\nWill resolve most objectively, according to credible reports' consensus and with a little help from this community.\n\n[tweet]\n\n\n\n\n"}, {"id": "bdSZKuJ5m2e7wzGjmHXz", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1703285604608, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1704327830691, "question": "[Kalshi] Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?", "slug": "kalshi-will-an-eligible-natural-dis-d0e9bca38998", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/kalshi-will-an-eligible-natural-dis-d0e9bca38998", "pool": {"NO": 66.40867938608469, "YES": 291.305166052245}, "probability": 0.06458506413523968, "p": 0.23246161134451065, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 298.6948339477549, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704327830691, "resolverId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704327831472, "lastBetTime": 1703521295421, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Kalshi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://kalshi.com/markets/EMERGENCYSTL#EMERGENCYSTL-23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a hurricane of 96 mph is recorded at St. Louis, Missouri; a tornado, flood, or flash flood warning is issued; or an earthquake of at least magnitude 5 occurs 50 miles away, then the market resolves to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mirrorbot%2F1c4005019899.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["kalshi"], "textDescription": "Will an eligible natural disaster affect St. Louis?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Kalshi.\n\nResolution criteria\n\nIf a hurricane of 96 mph is recorded at St. Louis, Missouri; a tornado, flood, or flash flood warning is issued; or an earthquake of at least magnitude 5 occurs 50 miles away, then the market resolves to Yes.\n\nResolution sources\n\nhttps://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&product=CLI&issuedby=STL\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "PNh5upuojECwfsJ8JLTy", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700673389534, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700755200000, "question": "Will Siemens close higher november 23th than the close of november 22th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-siemens-close-higher-november-bb8c40a35f2c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-november-bb8c40a35f2c", "pool": {"NO": 761.4130410478114, "YES": 147.75959537580695}, "probability": 0.9315469449939304, "p": 0.7253404957961914, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 884.9429671731926, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700758643319, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222344087, "lastBetTime": 1700754057075, "lastCommentTime": 1700758637051, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fs1xTWimbF-.png?alt=media&token=47c36d0b-fcd3-4131-b500-f9403e3f4034", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Xpx18mavIS6tRTiCH3JR", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1678743996879, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1697836900025, "question": "Will Argentina win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-argentina-win-the-2023-rugby-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-argentina-win-the-2023-rugby-w", "pool": {"NO": 175.29764478076697, "YES": 12592.168144283918}, "probability": 0.0014342385448612147, "p": 0.09352446632547234, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14635.072794877166, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697836900025, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697835108991, "lastBetTime": 1697835108656, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FGE6w6lDI24.png?alt=media&token=8251d128-1b55-44e6-82eb-a5d99479c489", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "rugby", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "kJnAv41rOsngjebl66f6", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944160664, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708174800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-17 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-0fc0518b13f8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-0fc0518b13f8", "pool": {"NO": 64.61491196059958, "YES": 93.66070684060237}, "probability": 0.15120556189325882, "p": 0.2052264454804614, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708258608608, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708258609490, "lastBetTime": 1708159792688, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-17 13:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-17 - 15:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=17", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F60e25f32bbbe.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-17 13:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-17 - 15:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a016:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "8hGE2v5HGGMYEgbPAG2r", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1695163149418, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1695496634926, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will SMU defeat TCU?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-smu-defeat-tcu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-smu-defeat-tcu", "pool": {"NO": 79.28861341705897, "YES": 3177.362522654218}, "probability": 0.010521630942221836, "p": 0.2987971149136337, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3903.6430547268246, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695496634926, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695496618348, "lastBetTime": 1695496407499, "lastCommentTime": 1695496617590, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 11:00 AM CDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, Texas", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big 12 Week 4 games:", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "texas-christian-university", "southern-methodist-university", "college-football", "football", "big-12", "texas"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 11:00 AM CDT\n\nAmon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, Texas\n\nBig 12 Week 4 games:"}, {"id": "Wy2wMQrKnfrynqCXcwCk", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700156810978, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700236800000, "question": "Will Lufthansa close higher november 17th than the close of november 16th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-51f1fbf00005", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-lufthansa-close-higher-novembe-51f1fbf00005", "pool": {"NO": 764.465843545622, "YES": 70.28455507755872}, "probability": 0.9655360752563323, "p": 0.7203392613377446, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1623.1020912615666, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700266329746, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700266325607, "lastBetTime": 1700231416317, "lastCommentTime": 1700266324960, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNoSSxjb19I.png?alt=media&token=865e01a1-d7db-49b7-8b98-b95c5078ca7d", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "Market closes 6:30 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/LHA:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "SiI7q4ejXdqAXwLY3IVk", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699138291472, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699225200000, "question": "Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on November 5 than it closed on November 4?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-no-687225be0276", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bitcoin-btc-close-higher-on-no-687225be0276", "pool": {"NO": 13.787915194364723, "YES": 181.31820255333315}, "probability": 0.0706687998999325, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4939.471897906089, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699229502031, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699229554740, "lastBetTime": 1699225106229, "lastCommentTime": 1699229554340, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "35,048.60", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "top traders", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=btc-november-forecasting-league", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " are eligible for a prize.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Rank---Award\n1      1500\n2      750\n3      500", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "8eb6bf93-8c7d-4e01-817a-9c7d943ca6fd", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill Bitcoin BTC close higher on October 19 than it closed on October 18?32904433-1e70-4ceb-990d-a2bac7055065Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default", "btc-november-forecasting-league"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $35,048.60\n\n\nThis market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.\n\nRank---Award\n1      1500\n2      750\n3      500\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "zihvBWQhKMxZWgwuvpNc", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1695227861760, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1700380740692, "question": "Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-charles-leclerc-finish-on-the-207b900dbec9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-charles-leclerc-finish-on-the-207b900dbec9", "pool": {"NO": 21069.977237296716, "YES": 6.4897017325456545}, "probability": 0.9998183770227467, "p": 0.6290184082682877, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21782.6348472936, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700380740692, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700380737336, "lastBetTime": 1700380737200, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A podium finish is any finish in the top 3 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 18, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "JnB7Xc8oMJ1Yajq0P8OL", "creatorId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "creatorUsername": "brp", "creatorName": "Bjorn", "createdTime": 1678408777820, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704034740000, "question": "Will 2023 see US national news report a bridge collapse with at least 5 fatalities?", "slug": "will-2023-see-us-national-news-repo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/brp/will-2023-see-us-national-news-repo", "pool": {"NO": 184.61652617208978, "YES": 1185.0360294041845}, "probability": 0.03931254675773846, "p": 0.20802726941322855, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1253.8444197723866, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704054276665, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704054277117, "lastBetTime": 1704033270937, "lastCommentTime": 1689213678618, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As the goal of this market is to estimate the rate of infrastructure decay, hurricanes and tornado induced events don't count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Must be reported on by a nationally targeted website of a major news organization. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FfhTuIRj5pC.png?alt=media&token=8fa9d62c-c5bf-4cc0-b1e8-5c1e59f603f8", "groupSlugs": ["infrastructure", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "As the goal of this market is to estimate the rate of infrastructure decay, hurricanes and tornado induced events don't count.\n\nMust be reported on by a nationally targeted website of a major news organization. "}, {"id": "XxxE2SyTln99j940hqyd", "creatorId": "TNI73azr1rYIjNZMujosckAYSlM2", "creatorUsername": "BRTD", "creatorName": "BRTD", "createdTime": 1669769537890, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrsylYlJ6d2kI1TVD_JFz7OE98nlyJDg62SpkONuA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1685050792295, "question": "Will Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes be sentenced to at least 15 years in prison?", "slug": "will-oath-keepers-founder-stewart-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BRTD/will-oath-keepers-founder-stewart-r", "pool": {"NO": 2445.836814744486, "YES": 81.84075088139804}, "probability": 0.9846680326424622, "p": 0.6824377042544437, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5449.973884001184, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685050792295, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685041296722, "lastBetTime": 1685041245696, "lastCommentTime": 1685041293221, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Max penalty for his charge is 20 years: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-prison-sentence-penalty-if-convicted-of-seditious-conspiracy-2022-6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-prison-sentence-penalty-if-convicted-of-seditious-conspiracy-2022-6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market shall resolve upon the sentencing being issued.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/BRTD/how-many-years-in-prison-will-oath", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FCI_zQ-VcP0.png?alt=media&token=db0b78ae-a640-425c-86bc-50bc2db60b9d", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics"], "textDescription": "Max penalty for his charge is 20 years: https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-prison-sentence-penalty-if-convicted-of-seditious-conspiracy-2022-6\n\nMarket shall resolve upon the sentencing being issued.\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/BRTD/how-many-years-in-prison-will-oath)"}, {"id": "fKE4V0uz1hTAzDWvR8FQ", "creatorId": "toFuvWdYFchnB6mljZSNrUpQAjf1", "creatorUsername": "kottsiek", "creatorName": "kottsiek", "createdTime": 1675206984985, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkottsiek%2FwRnRSugf_h.webp?alt=media&token=1724b924-bad0-4b5f-8484-0109a1811f48", "closeTime": 1675712574772, "question": "Will Fnatic get eliminated from the LEC Winter Split next week?", "slug": "will-fnatic-get-eliminated-from-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kottsiek/will-fnatic-get-eliminated-from-the", "pool": {"NO": 1164.0428546495623, "YES": 1.4291598167397979}, "probability": 0.9983330361622866, "p": 0.4237288135593268, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1330.0355767229867, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1675712574772, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675712537741, "lastBetTime": 1675712537630, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will fan favourite Fnatic already get eliminated next week? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Current Standings: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://lolesports.com/standings/lec/lec_winter_2023/regular_season", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://lolesports.com/standings/lec/lec_winter_2023/regular_season", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "9th and 10th Place gets eliminated. Three more Bo1s to be played. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FW7uJdRJHkI.png?alt=media&token=6de764be-39a5-499f-b773-4d22451a71b4", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "league-of-legends"], "textDescription": "Will fan favourite Fnatic already get eliminated next week? \n\nCurrent Standings: https://lolesports.com/standings/lec/lec_winter_2023/regular_season\n\n9th and 10th Place gets eliminated. Three more Bo1s to be played. "}, {"id": "OB15h9fgKO6ltyedWI72", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1691020509267, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1691638143485, "question": "Will Manifold Reach 9200 Monthly Active Users in 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-reach-9200-monthly-ac", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-manifold-reach-9200-monthly-ac", "pool": {"NO": 25148.433284047926, "YES": 261.96920212558825}, "probability": 0.9982011474826601, "p": 0.852517209836289, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30978.20127724134, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691638143485, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691564442965, "lastBetTime": 1691564442794, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution base on the numbers reported here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"YES\" if Manifold reaches 9200 monthly active users at any point in 2023", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves \"NO\" otherwise", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves \"N/A\" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fc700188-2438-4b65-895d-9535fdf3f9cb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "image": "https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png", "title": "Manifold", "inputKey": "create marketWill Manifold Reach 9000 Monthly Active Users in 2023?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Bet on anything and see the market consensus on real-world questions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-user-retention"], "textDescription": "Resolution base on the numbers reported here: https://manifold.markets/stats\n\nResolves \"YES\" if Manifold reaches 9200 monthly active users at any point in 2023\n\nResolves \"NO\" otherwise\nResolves \"N/A\" if Manifold stops reporting monthly active users to the public\n\n\n\n\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "nD0lMs4WoAoNnZFALA6k", "creatorId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "creatorUsername": "bohaska", "creatorName": "Bohaska", "createdTime": 1697895085534, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbohaska%2FVFsTxZ3vtl.jpg?alt=media&token=1eafb8ce-e9b5-407c-8c1a-2f61d7d0735a", "closeTime": 1703954382840, "question": "Will X/Twitter add a Manifold integration before 2024?", "slug": "will-xtwitter-add-a-manifold-integr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-xtwitter-add-a-manifold-integr", "pool": {"NO": 211.6412242775172, "YES": 404.6567742083051}, "probability": 0.06069434593444949, "p": 0.10996059561217741, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 465.5639201360113, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703954382840, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "3luPfohdMdUbsM9i6VmmxPFexwI3", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710221950837, "lastBetTime": 1703448434334, "lastCommentTime": 1698359819444, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From Manifold's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Standup meeting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Standup-3c054f6441e1400db838e9d50f1ea824", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on October 20th:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[c] ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(Sinclair)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " nathan young is talking to x community notes team to try to get them to add prediction markets integration to x. I predict this will not succeed", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[s] ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(Stephen)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Cool, I\u2019d be happy to talk to them\u2026", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[i] ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(Ian)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " market on whether he succeeds?", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if X adds a built-in prediction market integration for Manifold before 2024. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "manifold-business-future", "manifold-features-25bad7c7792e"], "textDescription": "From Manifold's Standup meeting on October 20th:\n\n[c] (Sinclair) nathan young is talking to x community notes team to try to get them to add prediction markets integration to x. I predict this will not succeed\n\n[s] (Stephen) Cool, I\u2019d be happy to talk to them\u2026\n\n[i] (Ian) market on whether he succeeds?\n\nResolves YES if X adds a built-in prediction market integration for Manifold before 2024. "}, {"id": "frL0qKwF430qY56hBEZc", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700495111338, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1700582400000, "question": "Will Rheinmetall close higher november 21th than the close of november 20th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-a8ad5f58be19", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-rheinmetall-close-higher-novem-a8ad5f58be19", "pool": {"NO": 1395.5803988848388, "YES": 35.167120263148774}, "probability": 0.9943898896417416, "p": 0.8170675600450886, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1408.4196011151612, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700640229961, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222351710, "lastBetTime": 1700576772326, "lastCommentTime": 1700640223155, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMibyKlB97Z.png?alt=media&token=765b860a-f0d2-4cae-a017-2c9be70386a4", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/RHM:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Oqj5YQyoZLzHNcGTRvro", "creatorId": "90BD1aZe5xOFI6DULYFEXFJQb7o1", "creatorUsername": "BernardoChrispimBaron", "creatorName": "Bernardo Chrispim Baron", "createdTime": 1667916939077, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0YTALNHIfZHMGUhLCzX8YOJ9J-b-6RyfwHbeEd=s96-c", "closeTime": 1688180340000, "question": "Will GiveWell feature any anxiety or depression-related interventions in its All Grants Fund by Jun 30, 2023?", "slug": "will-givewell-feature-any-anxiety-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/will-givewell-feature-any-anxiety-o", "pool": {"NO": 199.58826234246496, "YES": 8347.237453780552}, "probability": 0.006707477930689901, "p": 0.2202220526437615, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8831.708371447687, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688206188851, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688169970062, "lastBetTime": 1688169969918, "lastCommentTime": 1679952979490, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Considering all grants made or recommended according to: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants#Database_of_all_GiveWell_grants", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants#Database_of_all_GiveWell_grants", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFgYGMpeOmV.png?alt=media&token=f6880bd4-2422-4065-863b-2a2d182b181a", "groupSlugs": ["effective-altruism"], "textDescription": "Considering all grants made or recommended according to: https://www.givewell.org/research/all-grants#Database_of_all_GiveWell_grants"}, {"id": "luZpDm5z70GQM0rcZnBb", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1708138411778, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1708880819837, "question": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 455k subs by the end of February 2024?", "slug": "will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-526bba7e370c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-526bba7e370c", "pool": {"NO": 10388.153501559635, "YES": 146.54527983714945}, "probability": 0.9964731997550269, "p": 0.7994313916184187, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12263.59862847991, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708880819837, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218374276, "lastBetTime": 1708880800069, "lastCommentTime": 1708880810125, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FEOyg-Lw6uw.png?alt=media&token=659dfb7c-ed53-4a84-92dd-e49561309274", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Summary:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 1st coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H61pA1ZPTs8", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 2nd coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf6JFPY0g2Y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3) ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "h3h3 3rd coverage", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjKye-weNxw", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel go below 455k subs at any point by the end of February 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-332a744ca0ea", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry%2Ffc0aa05cca7b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "youtube", "subscriber-milestones"], "textDescription": "Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.\n\n\n[image]Summary:\n\n\n(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.\n\n1) h3h3 1st coverage\n\n2) h3h3 2nd coverage\n\n3) h3h3 3rd coverage\n\nWill Vaush's main youtube channel go below 455k subs at any point by the end of February 2024?\n\nhttps://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_\n\nRelated Market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-332a744ca0ea)"}, {"id": "UOQMZrH8M0hzSM7KeArO", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1693494399621, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694436661931, "question": "Will Elon Musk father another child in 2023?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-father-another-child-6ad5b0880258", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-6ad5b0880258", "pool": {"NO": 1950.0351349061195, "YES": 361.6341505220778}, "probability": 0.9737812469331103, "p": 0.873220878463465, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7385.195707940706, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694436661931, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451925061, "lastBetTime": 1694430493613, "lastCommentTime": 1694436885766, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money original: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the nine living children confirmed at the time of this market\u2019s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-So far, list of Musk's children include:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Twins (from Shivon Zilis)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exa Dark Sider\u00e6l (Grimes)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "X AE A-XII (Grimes)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kai, Saxon and Damian (Justine Wilson)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Griffin and Vivian (Justine Wilson)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "insight-prediction"], "textDescription": "real money original: https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-before-august-2023\n\nThis market will resolve positively if Elon Musk is discovered to have fathered (or legally adopted) another child by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET. This market can be resolved by a consensus of credible reporting, or official statements by Elon Musk. \n\nIf no new spawn of Elon Musk have been reported by December 31, 2023 at 11:59PM ET, then the market will resolve to \u201cNo\u201d.\n\nAny child must have been born by the market end date, and pregnancy reports will not be sufficient to resolve the market. If a child is not reported or announced by the end date and is later discovered to have been born prior to the end date, this will have no bearing on market resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a child will be considered to be discovered if they are not one of the nine living children confirmed at the time of this market\u2019s conception, regardless of when the child was born. Name changes of existing children and legally adopted last names of any possible new children will not affect the resolution of this market.\n\n-So far, list of Musk's children include:\n\nTwins (from Shivon Zilis)\n\nExa Dark Sider\u00e6l (Grimes)\n\nX AE A-XII (Grimes)\n\nKai, Saxon and Damian (Justine Wilson)\n\nGriffin and Vivian (Justine Wilson)"}, {"id": "qhfEVtTACRtUeJrZV7SY", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1684769894318, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1684855800000, "question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 23rd May than it closed on 22nd May?", "slug": "will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-31077b6210ff", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-31077b6210ff", "pool": {"NO": 20.443938099139203, "YES": 3252.017290091969}, "probability": 0.001419193368344616, "p": 0.1843871691142428, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9514.422845410065, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684857001399, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684855698975, "lastBetTime": 1684855698764, "lastCommentTime": 1684852933808, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 23rd May than it did on Monday 22nd May?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And here are some longer term FTSE markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC,SCqqFj9Jyi9yVKg8FDr2,NmnePAVbRiqx7LgihAXt"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhQyr7_KGSP.png?alt=media&token=6d6741c1-0f90-43b0-b065-acb91d1ff175", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "ftse-100"], "textDescription": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 23rd May than it did on Monday 22nd May?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nAnd here are some longer term FTSE markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "WL1msJyzPE1wT38syNh4", "creatorId": "hUM4SO8a8qhfqT1gEZ7ElTCGSEz2", "creatorUsername": "Stralor", "creatorName": "Pat Scott\ud83e\ude74", "createdTime": 1690951654343, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStralor%2FFqiZkD-2-U.jpg?alt=media&token=286ba5a2-bd31-4f19-b6fe-53e90fa501ca", "closeTime": 1693551540000, "question": "[Survey] Do most of you live in North America?", "slug": "survey-do-most-manifolders-live-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Stralor/survey-do-most-manifolders-live-in", "pool": {"NO": 511.2687557509392, "YES": 214.10822477407567}, "probability": 0.8955608489801394, "p": 0.7821827110272922, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 347.5845166654608, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693558378504, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693558374020, "lastBetTime": 1693460447194, "lastCommentTime": 1693558373710, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I wrote a survey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", for all you Manifolders, about you Manifolders.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES at the end of August if 50% or more of survey responders say they live in North America, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As I have all the info, I won't bet in this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Obviously the more people who take it, the better the results will be! Give it a go:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "49aec78d-11ea-4cf0-a267-72c11d25bafb", "url": "https://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7", "image": "https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/_fITgl0L9GoFwFD2RdKvLFTZ5RBRhp50YfH2gnKlO2hj-W19og84Ykz8pryPneGjrzKmyJNWcoI=w1200-h630-p", "title": "Manifold Survey", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Here\u2019s a whole bunch of (sometimes silly) questions about you as a Manifolder. Take them as seriously as you can manage. Buckle up, it\u2019ll probably take 20-30 minutes or so to get through this, but I don\u2019t know for sure. (Almost) all of the questions are optional, but you\u2019ll have to sign in with a G\u2026", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it jogs any inspiration in you, feel free to write questions of your own about it and comment them here! If you do, please use the group", "type": "text"}, {"text": " #Pat's Manifold Survey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/pats-manifold-survey", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " so they can be sorted together. And go bet on more in that group!", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "pats-manifold-survey", "manifold-users", "manifold-surveys"], "textDescription": "I wrote a survey, for all you Manifolders, about you Manifolders.\n\nResolves YES at the end of August if 50% or more of survey responders say they live in North America, otherwise NO.\n\nAs I have all the info, I won't bet in this question.\n\nObviously the more people who take it, the better the results will be! Give it a go:\n\nhttps://forms.gle/XeBEE2qr9Gbn86Ry7\n\n[link preview]If it jogs any inspiration in you, feel free to write questions of your own about it and comment them here! If you do, please use the group #Pat's Manifold Survey so they can be sorted together. And go bet on more in that group!"}, {"id": "TO1EsTL8boNCeean6YKe", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1703085423430, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703218528639, "question": "Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-18a7b04d023d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-los-angeles-rams-beat-the-18a7b04d023d", "pool": {"NO": 2670.494154754153, "YES": 69.97447713712805}, "probability": 0.9923426491546996, "p": 0.7725056871425205, "totalLiquidity": 267.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11367.220348821702, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703218611701, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703218314423, "lastBetTime": 1703218314292, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Rams win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Saints win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/RJPerez%2F2a531793e562.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["new-orleans-saints", "football", "los-angeles-rams", "nfl", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "Yes - Rams win\n\nNo - Saints win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "E8oVSLN1MLsYHui2RfEE", "creatorId": "qkJ3Wu5LmFOeSpI0U78kbirpgL72", "creatorUsername": "hongalex", "creatorName": "Alex", "createdTime": 1652468041479, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjoe8tY7tUFa9-BtALjs4evc8UF4QrzrHIYi8akZOg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1659337140000, "question": "Will Japan reopen to tourists by July 2022?", "slug": "will-japan-reopen-to-tourists-by-ju", "url": "https://manifold.markets/hongalex/will-japan-reopen-to-tourists-by-ju", "pool": {"NO": 263.8229443680162, "YES": 46.210085315404655}, "probability": 0.8572370830683709, "p": 0.5126095884148205, "totalLiquidity": 104.04804689433854, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 423.63885302101045, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1663959811866, "resolutionProbability": 0.8572370830683709, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1663959846835, "lastBetTime": 1659298139782, "lastCommentTime": 1663959844497, "description": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if Japan allows foreign visitors at any time during the month of July 2022.\n\nhttps://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3177568/coronavirus-japan-expected-reopen-tourists-july-may\n\nMay 15, 8:22am: UPDATE: Based on suggestion, this market now resolved to \u201cYES\u201d if Japan allows >100,000 visitors to Japan in July. \nhttps://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/", "groupSlugs": ["world-default"], "textDescription": "This market resolves to \"YES\" if Japan allows foreign visitors at any time during the month of July 2022.\n\nhttps://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3177568/coronavirus-japan-expected-reopen-tourists-july-may\n\nMay 15, 8:22am: UPDATE: Based on suggestion, this market now resolved to \u201cYES\u201d if Japan allows >100,000 visitors to Japan in July. \nhttps://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/"}, {"id": "lwXoZ3BbhUjb1Dyvg670", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1694299141922, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1694333100000, "question": "Will FR flight 2152 from Birmingham to Alicante on 2023-09-10 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-fr-flight-2152-from-birmingham", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-fr-flight-2152-from-birmingham", "pool": {"NO": 122.44452281448113, "YES": 36.22859911585035}, "probability": 0.75, "p": 0.4702360005011791, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 78.89611144707688, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694387853462, "resolutionProbability": 0.75, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694328374685, "lastBetTime": 1694328374379, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/4mrejt9b", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/4mrejt9b", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/4mrejt9b"}, {"id": "BPq0n1xYBb35DFjzC7eN", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116645784, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704296100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-01-03 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4d583494c86a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-4d583494c86a", "pool": {"NO": 64.35427713102648, "YES": 130.5855947417174}, "probability": 0.05708519883762498, "p": 0.10940769275878326, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 57.217823833661974, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704352352038, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704352352329, "lastBetTime": 1704295455248, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-03 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-03 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=03", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=01&date=03", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F14b8f25334fa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-03 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-03 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "7B7gGRjh0tx6P5LI0hEE", "creatorId": "NsSPSVGch0Su40rPJsIfWNUBBq93", "creatorUsername": "LorenzWestner", "creatorName": "Lorenz Westner", "createdTime": 1690478515606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcz7Bi9CF_AW3jtgqUcSfm0URy-cvYy_0satvFLK7qx=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697283384005, "question": "Will the AFD get the second largest share of the votes in the next Bavarian State election", "slug": "will-the-afd-get-the-second-largest", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LorenzWestner/will-the-afd-get-the-second-largest", "pool": {"NO": 19.612372717890295, "YES": 32139.160718403204}, "probability": 0.00046050290564972546, "p": 0.4301937049137119, "totalLiquidity": 710, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 42772.17756447305, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697283384005, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697282740597, "lastBetTime": 1697282740459, "lastCommentTime": 1696867574666, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The next Bavarian state election will be held around the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "8.th", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://8.th", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " October 2023", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bavarian_state_election#:~:text=The%202023%20Bavarian%20state%20election,President%20of%20Bavaria%20Markus%20S%C3%B6der", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bavarian_state_election#:~:text=The%202023%20Bavarian%20state%20election,President%20of%20Bavaria%20Markus%20S%C3%B6der", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "currently the Green Party is still ahead", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://politpro.eu/en/bavaria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://politpro.eu/en/bavaria", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Can the Afd catch up until", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " October?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will be closed 2 Weeks later, if they move the date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "d814b7ad-f680-4097-a2bd-0d975f0a8cb2", "url": "https://politpro.eu/en/bavaria", "image": "https://politpro.eu/img/trends/en/square/de-by.png", "title": "Bavaria: Current election trends & polls", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Election polls for Bavaria of all institutes | Which coalitions are possible? | Could the government stay in office?", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["german-politics", "germany"], "textDescription": "The next Bavarian state election will be held around the 8.th October 2023\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Bavarian_state_election#:~:text=The%202023%20Bavarian%20state%20election,President%20of%20Bavaria%20Markus%20S%C3%B6der.\n\ncurrently the Green Party is still ahead\nhttps://politpro.eu/en/bavaria\n\n\n\nCan the Afd catch up until\n\n October?\n\nWill be closed 2 Weeks later, if they move the date.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "gTUUAmy9kJMtlne1l1y3", "creatorId": "o7Tu72Hb0cfLG8oKEfiaMszxuJ82", "creatorUsername": "LesterCrafton", "creatorName": "Lester Crafton", "createdTime": 1697431541205, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJNn7nhYlR8GZkNQK-rITEHLOSMfzRLyqqUXnIDmU5MQRQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will Donald Trump send another tweet in 2023?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-send-another-twee", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LesterCrafton/will-donald-trump-send-another-twee", "pool": {"NO": 294.01714391039246, "YES": 6403.396591517041}, "probability": 0.030778129081381674, "p": 0.40884468467378743, "totalLiquidity": 1075, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9482.673565233723, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704125043779, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "o7Tu72Hb0cfLG8oKEfiaMszxuJ82", "uniqueBettorCount": 79, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704125044423, "lastBetTime": 1704088436229, "lastCommentTime": 1701234787821, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Since being allowed to come back to the platform formerly known as twitter, former U.S. President Donald Trump has sent one tweet, the day he got his first mugshot, in order to raise funds from the event. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will he tweet/send a message on X from his @realdonaldtrump account in 2023?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This question will resolve as \"YES\" if any message, of any sort is sent from @realdonaldtrump on the X platform by 12-31-2023 11:59:59 pm EST and resolve as \"NO\" otherwise. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Truth Social and other social media platforms do not count, this is for X, the platform formerly know as twitter, only.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["magaland", "donald-trump", "2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Since being allowed to come back to the platform formerly known as twitter, former U.S. President Donald Trump has sent one tweet, the day he got his first mugshot, in order to raise funds from the event. \n\nWill he tweet/send a message on X from his @realdonaldtrump account in 2023?\n\nThis question will resolve as \"YES\" if any message, of any sort is sent from @realdonaldtrump on the X platform by 12-31-2023 11:59:59 pm EST and resolve as \"NO\" otherwise. \n\nTruth Social and other social media platforms do not count, this is for X, the platform formerly know as twitter, only."}, {"id": "XJODUuByNZZ7BjcMELTA", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1692981558130, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703168366856, "question": "Transfermarkt \u26bd Will Leo Messi's next Market Value exceed \u20ac30.00m?", "slug": "transfermarkt-will-leo-messis-next-034b274be20b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/transfermarkt-will-leo-messis-next-034b274be20b", "pool": {"NO": 1043.8933605250252, "YES": 8.467863641958502}, "probability": 0.9922707065447863, "p": 0.5101346458649479, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1278.8368460803888, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703168366856, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703149907670, "lastBetTime": 1703149907509, "lastCommentTime": 1703146283034, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lionel Andr\u00e9s Messi", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (born 24 June 1987), is an Argentine professional ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "footballer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " who plays as a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "forward", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_(association_football)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "captains", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Captain_(association_football)", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " both ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Major League Soccer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " club ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Inter Miami", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter_Miami_CF", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Argentina national team", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina_national_football_team", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "His ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u26bd", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://emojipedia.org/emoji/%E2%9A%BD/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " Market Value is currently (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "last update: Aug 22,2023) ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "estimated by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Transfermarkt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.transfermarkt.us/lionel-messi/profil/spieler/28003", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at \u20ac35m.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDeZl-c58H3.png?alt=media&token=026ea609-a68e-4f9e-9c33-4f291b80c4be", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will the next Transfermarkt's update for Messi estimate his Market Value greater than \u20ac30,000,000 ?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve after the next MV for this player is published.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMyW_a_Swl3.png?alt=media&token=fc4feb40-167c-44a4-bb7c-5f54084ca374", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Interested? ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CHECK ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "OTHER \u26bd  TRANSFERMARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-transfermarkets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["major-league-soccer", "us-soccer", "soccer", "football-transfers", "-transfermarkets"], "textDescription": "Lionel Andr\u00e9s Messi (born 24 June 1987), is an Argentine professional footballer who plays as a forward for and captains both Major League Soccer club Inter Miami and the Argentina national team.\n\nHis \u26bd Market Value is currently (last update: Aug 22,2023) estimated by Transfermarkt at \u20ac35m. \n\n[image]\nWill the next Transfermarkt's update for Messi estimate his Market Value greater than \u20ac30,000,000 ?\n\nThis market will resolve after the next MV for this player is published.\n\n\n\n[image]\n\nInterested? CHECK OTHER \u26bd  TRANSFERMARKETS"}, {"id": "WbHHrPJaJ4puOIsRNqVU", "creatorId": "DCq983FyQvdZ0b5xRh8UJOsVvva2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBlaw", "creatorName": "Kevin Blawd", "createdTime": 1696434231115, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinLaw%2Ftvua2j7GqN.jpeg?alt=media&token=1e6c4961-50e2-43ea-a5ce-04ff22a11302", "closeTime": 1698778332073, "question": "Will Anthony Scaramucci testify at the SBF trial?", "slug": "will-anthony-scaramucci-testify-at", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBlaw/will-anthony-scaramucci-testify-at", "pool": {"NO": 1.4105388532957477, "YES": 4679.878074281621}, "probability": 0.00042456582264959467, "p": 0.5849279821889259, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5584.12989074311, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698778332073, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698778319182, "lastBetTime": 1698778319046, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's short lived communications director has been listed as a possible witness in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial. His investment company once owned shares in FTX.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/sam-bankman-frieds-family-anthony-scaramucci-among-possible-trial-witnesses-prosecutor/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/sam-bankman-frieds-family-anthony-scaramucci-among-possible-trial-witnesses-prosecutor/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will he actually testify? Will resolve YES if he takes the stand and is sworn to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the Scaramucci, even if his testimony is very, very short.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ec3529e9-91a0-4c01-bd78-1aeea838996d", "url": "https://nypost.com/2023/10/03/sam-bankman-frieds-family-anthony-scaramucci-among-possible-trial-witnesses-prosecutor/", "image": "https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/10/sam-bankman-fried-potential-witnesses.jpg?quality=75&strip=all&1696359524&w=1024", "title": "Sam Bankman-Fried\u2019s family, Anthony Scaramucci among possible trial witnesses: prosecutor", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Sam Bankman-Fried's father and brother, as well as Donald Trump's former spokesman Anthony Scaramucci, are among possible witnesses at the cryptocurrency exchange founder's fraud trial, according to a list read by a prosecutor in court on Tuesday.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["banking", "sbf", "crypto-speculation", "sbf-trial"], "textDescription": "Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's short lived communications director has been listed as a possible witness in the Sam Bankman-Fried trial. His investment company once owned shares in FTX.\n\nhttps://nypost.com/2023/10/03/sam-bankman-frieds-family-anthony-scaramucci-among-possible-trial-witnesses-prosecutor/\n\nWill he actually testify? Will resolve YES if he takes the stand and is sworn to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the Scaramucci, even if his testimony is very, very short.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "rMwZFkAoeaUhveT47Jk4", "creatorId": "zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03", "creatorUsername": "CquilPromp", "creatorName": "Cquil Promp", "createdTime": 1694425408366, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694458800000, "question": "Will the temperature in Central Park September 11th at 3:51pm be in the 79-81\u00b0 range?", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-central-par-518c4fec7169", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-518c4fec7169", "pool": {"NO": 446.7882744355732, "YES": 235.73064481287435}, "probability": 0.5080766459705574, "p": 0.35272429562117497, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 704.3839757641955, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694463095503, "resolutionProbability": 0.51, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694458734284, "lastBetTime": 1694458734133, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 79-81\u00b0 range ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at 3:51pm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (15:51) on Sept 11, 2023 ?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes 3:00pm ET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["climate", "weather", "new-york"], "textDescription": "Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 79-81\u00b0 range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 11, 2023 ?\n\nQuestion closes 3:00pm ET\n\nResolves according to:\n\nhttps://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html\n\n"}, {"id": "woIJfuks5XsMYnmuyZPf", "creatorId": "D9GnaZnjOwgEQIcaE82Sfkxk3KN2", "creatorUsername": "Ellis", "creatorName": "LS", "createdTime": 1715314405044, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEllis%2FUvgKMjEN9G.svg?alt=media&token=ca7c29eb-f267-4de4-8dc4-3cc14a8bceb7", "closeTime": 1716004740000, "question": "Will OpenAI *release* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137", "pool": {"NO": 32.23986610236539, "YES": 2098.761326768924}, "probability": 0.011472734937567319, "p": 0.4303694325127182, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10802.61850180632, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716005716558, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "D9GnaZnjOwgEQIcaE82Sfkxk3KN2", "uniqueBettorCount": 95, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716004740000, "lastBetTime": 1715991900149, "lastCommentTime": 1715724340786, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "  --- meaning it is accessible to the public whether free or paid.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access\" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See related question on if a search product will be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "announced", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet?r=RWxsaXM", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Ellis/74890d899a90.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "technology-default", "ai", "technical-ai-timelines"], "textDescription": "https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324\n\nThis market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is released  --- meaning it is accessible to the public whether free or paid.\n\n\"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access\" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.\n\nSee related question on if a search product will be announced\nhttps://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet"}, {"id": "YWuOxD6n6jwIpqOlcbNJ", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1695664928769, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1696011300000, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on September 29th than it closed on September 28th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-0df015922fea", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-0df015922fea", "pool": {"NO": 172.5080814848231, "YES": 107.46885551933681}, "probability": 0.5393978172845209, "p": 0.421815658547576, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1005.0907010718618, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696048643630, "resolutionProbability": 0.54, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696048640758, "lastBetTime": 1696010733242, "lastCommentTime": 1696048640070, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX closes at 3pm-ish ET (7pm-ish UTC)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at   \u0336115p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336  ", "type": "text"}, {"text": " (515pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 215pm ET (615pm UTC) Close For September Only!!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FvV7TcQS8J7.png?alt=media&token=aabdef59-94e9-44e4-8aec-39fe76bbff38", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_EZu9TukOR.png?alt=media&token=78bbcdc3-aa54-4fed-aba0-085c940aea09", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "finance", "stocks", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "VIX closes at 3pm-ish ET (7pm-ish UTC)\n\nPredictions close at   \u0336115p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336   (515pm UTC)\n\n1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 215pm ET (615pm UTC) Close For September Only!!\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS \n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nFor The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow \u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2"}, {"id": "5lj7GtjYicOvRdKJgfjs", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1700845676342, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1701102600000, "question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 27th November than it closed on 24th November?", "slug": "will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-5601afaef6c7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-5601afaef6c7", "pool": {"NO": 142.84766488064773, "YES": 4065.7926615134143}, "probability": 0.006583573976664083, "p": 0.1586927533146505, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5762.516915052159, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701109694462, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462484572, "lastBetTime": 1701102536688, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monday 27th November than it did on Friday 24th November?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source of truth is the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "official FTSE 100 page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling \"FTSE 100\" or at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/UKX:INDEXFTSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some longer term FTSE 100 markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "SCqqFj9Jyi9yVKg8FDr2", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "NmnePAVbRiqx7LgihAXt", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "uk", "ftse-100", "sccsq4", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Monday 27th November than it did on Friday 24th November?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nThe official source of truth is the official FTSE 100 page but this is delayed by around 15 minutes so many traders use Google to track up to the minute prices, either by Googling \"FTSE 100\" or at this page. Note this is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between an up day and a down day if the margin is close enough!\n\nSome longer term FTSE 100 markets:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2023-abov \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2024-abov \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-2025-abov "}, {"id": "sRPTcEOF99x3sd27BsD8", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1702665397475, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702929600000, "question": "Will Walmart close higher Dec 18 than Dec 11? (WMT Weekly)", "slug": "will-walmart-close-higher-dec-18-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-walmart-close-higher-dec-18-th", "pool": {"NO": 1640.285353142686, "YES": 75.85092049625335}, "probability": 0.9853846921022906, "p": 0.7571480829363343, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1699.156303657963, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702938198530, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702938195342, "lastBetTime": 1702920417348, "lastCommentTime": 1702938193977, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WMT closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 1 hour earlier", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 151.24", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=walmart+stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investing Historical ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/wal-mart-stores-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/equities/costco-whsl-corp-new-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stock-marketweekly", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "finance", "stocks", "walmart", "wmt"], "textDescription": "WMT closes at 4pm EST.\n\nThis market closes 1 hour earlier\n\nPrevious Close Price: 151.24\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "mLUBawNATskH4qkVCZ0C", "creatorId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "creatorUsername": "JoshuaB", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1679459623150, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshuaB%2F8sWxWAR4eF.png?alt=media&token=4afe9518-3795-4c7a-83b9-ee28a908e5dd", "closeTime": 1679892281691, "question": "Was H. Foster Pettit\u2014mayor of Lexington Urban at the time\u2014Jimmy Carter\u2019s first mayoral endorsement in the 1976 primary?", "slug": "was-h-foster-pettitmayor-of-lexingt", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/was-h-foster-pettitmayor-of-lexingt", "pool": {"NO": 27.103735101517792, "YES": 165.79639984034935}, "probability": 0.15135445349506577, "p": 0.5217542175696821, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1085.2758840046638, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679892281691, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679923338726, "lastBetTime": 1679885808261, "lastCommentTime": 1679923335479, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Due to ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "HTbxWFlzWGeHUTiwZvvF0qm8W433", "label": "Conflux"}}, {"text": "'s market", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/how-many-of-my-7-questions-on-biden", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I've gone down the Jimmy Carter 1976 Democratic Primary endorsement rabbit hole, and the earliest endorsement that I can find with a dated newspaper reference is Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane's endorsement of Jimmy Carter, which occurred on February 9th, 1976. However, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "said newspaper", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://books.google.com/books?id=N6RBAAAAIBAJ&pg=PA1&dq=lexington+urban+mayor+jimmy+Carter+endorsement&article_id=4683,1649464&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjT1oPt1e79AhUhM0QIHfkGDbgQ6AF6BAgHEAI#v=onepage&q=lexington%20urban%20mayor%20jimmy%20Carter%20endorsement&f=false", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " article references an earlier endorsement, namely from Foster Pettit (whose full name is actually H. Foster Pettit)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F9umT6rIg6g.25?alt=media&token=5a790e8d-7c25-462a-8e03-f97b3f194cb7", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That puts his endorsement in January some time (and there's no other newspaper articles that I can find on his endorsement).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This leads to the obvious question, was there an earlier mayoral endorsement?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if I'm aware of credible evidence that there was a sitting mayor that definitively endorsed Jimmy Carter before H. Foster Pettit. Resolves YES at the end of the year, or if I'm made aware of credible evidence that there was not an earlier mayoral nomination (this condition will invoked very sparingly).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtIidZVPeyQ.png?alt=media&token=264a2b4e-4779-471f-983b-875830fea847", "groupSlugs": ["history", "jimmy-carter"], "textDescription": "Due to @Conflux's market\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Conflux/how-many-of-my-7-questions-on-biden)I've gone down the Jimmy Carter 1976 Democratic Primary endorsement rabbit hole, and the earliest endorsement that I can find with a dated newspaper reference is Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane's endorsement of Jimmy Carter, which occurred on February 9th, 1976. However, said newspaper article references an earlier endorsement, namely from Foster Pettit (whose full name is actually H. Foster Pettit)\n\n[image]That puts his endorsement in January some time (and there's no other newspaper articles that I can find on his endorsement).\n\nThis leads to the obvious question, was there an earlier mayoral endorsement?\n\nResolves NO if I'm aware of credible evidence that there was a sitting mayor that definitively endorsed Jimmy Carter before H. Foster Pettit. Resolves YES at the end of the year, or if I'm made aware of credible evidence that there was not an earlier mayoral nomination (this condition will invoked very sparingly)."}, {"id": "E7O7Wqv4iv6jZPaSMswo", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1689370349894, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1689500220516, "question": "Will Jack Della Maddalena beat Bassil Hafez?", "slug": "will-jack-della-maddalena-beat-bass", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-jack-della-maddalena-beat-bass", "pool": {"NO": 25641.346482520625, "YES": 52.550805548486096}, "probability": 0.9995263416036577, "p": 0.8122000551605134, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28787.085065872692, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689500220516, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689500212352, "lastBetTime": 1689500212189, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jack Della Maddalena and Bassil Hafez are scheduled to fight on July 15th, 2023 at a UFC event in Las Vegas, Nevada.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Jack Della Maddalena wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Bassil Hafez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ufc", "mma", "combat-sports"], "textDescription": "Jack Della Maddalena and Bassil Hafez are scheduled to fight on July 15th, 2023 at a UFC event in Las Vegas, Nevada.\n\nIf Jack Della Maddalena wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Bassil Hafez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "8Hl4A2jvZNSapS87Ugou", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706390060697, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706559900000, "question": "Will flight AF 333 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-29 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-6e36fcddd0f3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-6e36fcddd0f3", "pool": {"NO": 64.55392853208487, "YES": 109}, "probability": 0.09100923501048938, "p": 0.14460876284610097, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 39, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706594625012, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706594625218, "lastBetTime": 1706551648141, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-29 20:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 22:25 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 06:45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/333?year=2024&month=01&date=29", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af333", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F1115a6532022.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 333 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-29 20:25 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-29 - 22:25 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a014:25 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:25 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a023:25 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 06:45\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "cDwSg3yujUcaOeRFFhrU", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1713491337019, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1714100208807, "question": "Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within one week of being attacked by them?", "slug": "will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73", "pool": {"NO": 503.25553307214955, "YES": 13490.452787455588}, "probability": 0.009999999999999995, "p": 0.21307639721528793, "totalLiquidity": 1120, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24469.67417297294, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714100208807, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 59, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714100208807, "lastBetTime": 1714098109399, "lastCommentTime": 1713878418034, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "q5g9CTDHJXYUa7ds04sj", "label": "/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using similar criteria as Metaculus", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "map", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "internal waters and territorial sea", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "iran", "israel", "geopolitics", "wars"], "textDescription": "@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad \n\n@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi \n\nUsing similar criteria as Metaculus\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:\n\nOccur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n\nIran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n\nThe attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question."}, {"id": "562mVKEGWgryG4mR8uqn", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1693079884148, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1693636756591, "question": "2023 NCAA Football: Will Stanford defeat Hawaii?", "slug": "2023-ncaa-football-will-stanford-de", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-stanford-de", "pool": {"NO": 1933.3477132086823, "YES": 22.04778120439846}, "probability": 0.9927816693571181, "p": 0.6106607942715431, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1902.8098915043233, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693636789374, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693672609158, "lastBetTime": 1693636256073, "lastCommentTime": 1693672607646, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 1, 2023 - 5:00 PM HST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, Hawaii", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NCAA game page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154200", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154200", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Series history: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.winsipedia.com/stanford/vs/hawaii", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.winsipedia.com/stanford/vs/hawaii", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pac-12 Championship:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TPdHbegyI3QiGngv22SK", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-which-team-will"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pac-12 Week 1 games:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jDzplMp3ZaDwPHarsdLm", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-northern-ar"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "e483ie1CUpA7Jov5kDDR", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-southern-ut"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Z79AZuG4hr5Vs42F2j9f", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-california"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "sY78w4sr28PlYhAerISb", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-colorado-de"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "B8a6KJxpSsHj1Zja8vYY", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-portland-st"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "l2CWu2leIKqZ3XfKKdfH", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-oregon-stat"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "562mVKEGWgryG4mR8uqn", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-stanford-de"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Pxa49wwkrd3S7MPgFtqT", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-coastal-car"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "GdP9KWFRdF7ZnGVbO2z2", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-nevada-defe"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "aBBdilnHsYzmrhYfetcT", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-florida-def"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "yP7ChrI1KF6Ab3xkp7pP", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-boise-state"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "gsQdupeKPXoV7XBhgXot", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-washington"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Week 1 games:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "I7DZ5rGKSXKOqOyzKF0O", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-sam-houston"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "iL2KMjdkCYxZGOiNUQi3", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-north-carol"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "fN2uI6ix2GkOFgNh00aA", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-east-caroli"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "OocQq4s7u7bphMubJgFh", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-west-virgin"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["college-football", "california", "hawaii", "honolulu", "university-of-hawaii", "sports-default", "football", "stanford-university"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 1, 2023 - 5:00 PM HST\n\nClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, Hawaii\n\nNCAA game page: https://www.ncaa.com/game/6154200\n\nSeries history: https://www.winsipedia.com/stanford/vs/hawaii\n\nPac-12 Championship:\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-which-team-will \n\nPac-12 Week 1 games:\n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-northern-ar \n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-southern-ut@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-california@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-colorado-de@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-portland-st@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-oregon-stat \n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-stanford-de@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-coastal-car@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-nevada-defe@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-florida-def@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-boise-state@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-washingtonOther Week 1 games:\n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-sam-houston \n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-north-carol \n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-east-caroli \n\n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-west-virgin "}, {"id": "eKdhme1kCygQfEJ7rsTE", "creatorId": "c0Gh17wuPWVi8gTpeeboxtnXhbG3", "creatorUsername": "AlexKaramov", "creatorName": "Alex Karamov", "createdTime": 1691777562126, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1iCog4Nc1uCUaO7xygwklc_yjtLMWwuTo3DmVokX2=s96-c", "closeTime": 1692288360311, "question": "Will Walmart report earnings next week?", "slug": "will-walmart-report-earnings-next-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AlexKaramov/will-walmart-report-earnings-next-w", "pool": {"NO": 630.5170330625743, "YES": 114.4439613119503}, "probability": 0.9664822532380873, "p": 0.8395835833023856, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1004.8285450457382, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692288365968, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691842689649, "lastBetTime": 1691842685700, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved as yes if walmart reports earnings before Saturday Aug 19th, and no if they don't.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The earnings should also be from an official source", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "This will be resolved as yes if walmart reports earnings before Saturday Aug 19th, and no if they don't.\n\nThe earnings should also be from an official source"}, {"id": "ic7uv0Aypk82JLxPQjIu", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1684165101202, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1684251000000, "question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 16th May than it closed on 15th May?", "slug": "will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-c46872db079c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-c46872db079c", "pool": {"NO": 43.51692196103926, "YES": 1686.0235514006145}, "probability": 0.012414498785351186, "p": 0.32752076062993846, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1748.239677819589, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684252153100, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684252031906, "lastBetTime": 1684250941871, "lastCommentTime": 1684252028482, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 16th May than it did on Monday 15th May?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And here are some longer term FTSE markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC,SCqqFj9Jyi9yVKg8FDr2,NmnePAVbRiqx7LgihAXt"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F9I1-6BQqEf.png?alt=media&token=557a919d-7171-44a2-bf0d-32cc967f42fd", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "ftse-100"], "textDescription": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 16th May than it did on Monday 15th May?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nAnd here are some longer term FTSE markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "2imjJDVRzwjqt4oHQLwx", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1682731370513, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1684102295155, "question": "Will the #2 Boston Celtics win their East Semifinals Series against the #3 Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?", "slug": "will-the-2-boston-celtics-win-their-4a69302869a3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-2-boston-celtics-win-their-4a69302869a3", "pool": {"NO": 9342.32491389798, "YES": 113.62529134635271}, "probability": 0.9934783935367033, "p": 0.6494647464507485, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22397.989347260638, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684104810547, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684104847881, "lastBetTime": 1684101441076, "lastCommentTime": 1684104844553, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "wMk6FR3i4gfo60hNLApa,wyDzoFin6VPpFoJQXsG4,AAxosxGB6c4YYKIKKNag,BwyQVegSljaEoLVdalbi,oFoP5aFthLcKt3hOMvLx,fnvaH5xZToOeuakGcxg0,hb8I7cYSxOpFFko2Rd5S,VkeLjv6sBGM9iAKoHF8i,kql3ogSCS1okV61CjylQ"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FV8WfAxMcS4.png?alt=media&token=3cc1976c-5845-4cd7-be8a-b3508e2aab68", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "basketball"], "textDescription": "This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).\n\nAdditional Markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "pVJL9CHY4VjVrbrCCVga", "creatorId": "6VOjPKXfJ4VonuYiDZccLcGEIT03", "creatorUsername": "f", "creatorName": "RealLies", "createdTime": 1696354414453, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ff%2F7y7mQ648P7.png?alt=media&token=3377298a-5077-4b88-9c36-13cb14164446", "closeTime": 1698953519761, "question": "Will Phantom Collective have 380 subscribers by November 2?", "slug": "will-phantom-collective-have-380-su", "url": "https://manifold.markets/f/will-phantom-collective-have-380-su", "pool": {"NO": 1147.8690616901854, "YES": 17.416261700482313}, "probability": 0.9923732267948554, "p": 0.6637780365469298, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1443.2350291683172, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698953519761, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698953402952, "lastBetTime": 1698953402803, "lastCommentTime": 1696360907581, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Phantom Collective is a small music label", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/@phantomcollective901", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/@phantomcollective901", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["fun"], "textDescription": "Phantom Collective is a small music label\n\nhttps://youtube.com/@phantomcollective901"}, {"id": "UUS8HDItYVreOmT5cDHN", "creatorId": "zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03", "creatorUsername": "CquilPromp", "creatorName": "Cquil Promp", "createdTime": 1688937764752, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1689307140000, "question": "On July 17th, 2023, will average U.S. Gas Price be more than 5 cents above the July 3rd level of $3.527 per gallon?", "slug": "will-average-us-gas-price-be-more-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-average-us-gas-price-be-more-t", "pool": {"NO": 192.15814490000713, "YES": 143.1046247869373}, "probability": 0.5199999999999994, "p": 0.44653023991417934, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 198.464227482942, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689668666599, "resolutionProbability": 0.52, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689285035339, "lastBetTime": 1689285035196, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the U.S. Energy Information Administration national average of gasoline prices released on Monday 2023-07-17 be ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "greater than 3.577 ?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes Thursday 2023-07-13 11:59 PM ET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "world-default", "culture-default"], "textDescription": "Will the U.S. Energy Information Administration national average of gasoline prices released on Monday 2023-07-17 be greater than 3.577 ?\n\nQuestion closes Thursday 2023-07-13 11:59 PM ET\n\nResolves according to:\n\nhttps://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/"}, {"id": "jr7gn3kyuyZB2WgXcv2f", "creatorId": "hjzq8luemQPG6rxPIG1XUPTZPrK2", "creatorUsername": "RafaelZamora", "creatorName": "Rafael Zamora", "createdTime": 1671051832481, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GggL6q5Ycr6GnEmC_K4agbZHBpHXNfbvyGJd6v7SwA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1671310799170, "question": "Will there be\n3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup?", "slug": "will-there-be-63-or-more-goals-at-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RafaelZamora/will-there-be-63-or-more-goals-at-t", "pool": {"NO": 3710.551289601511, "YES": 138.2169819911948}, "probability": 0.9952766759032035, "p": 0.8869939694700018, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6657.38250361766, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671310799170, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671307955174, "lastBetTime": 1671307954989, "lastCommentTime": 1671181415057, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during the 90 minutes plus 30 minutes extra time ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(if any)", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "in the third place match for the FIFA world cup is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "3 or more", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". Resolves to NO if the total is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2 or less", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Round of penalties ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "WILL NOT ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The match is:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Morocco vs Croatia ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dec 14, 3:04pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will there be 6\n3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will there be\n3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbVNADWq4B5.png?alt=media&token=3c4697de-843b-45a5-9bee-4060f4376b66", "groupSlugs": ["soccer", "sports-default", "2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "Will resolved to YES if the total of goals score during the 90 minutes plus 30 minutes extra time (if any) in the third place match for the FIFA world cup is 3 or more. Resolves to NO if the total is 2 or less. Round of penalties WILL NOT count.\n\nThe match is:\n\n-Morocco vs Croatia \n\nDec 14, 3:04pm: Will there be 6\n3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup? \u2192 Will there be\n3 or more goals at the third place match of the FIFA World Cup?"}, {"id": "gRF5f8iXnNNtNBGIcgzb", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701104908194, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701187200000, "question": "Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher november 28th than the close of november 27th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-d4f77ee5a3ed", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-d4f77ee5a3ed", "pool": {"NO": 50.11314177666216, "YES": 790.1724235203576}, "probability": 0.03411269266475992, "p": 0.35768876487056384, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1061.871984560701, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701191010076, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222352583, "lastBetTime": 1701180659502, "lastCommentTime": 1701191005672, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2us-hby7VW.png?alt=media&token=2929312d-005c-411d-9a98-ac49e55b005f", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "xHPwrni1EBYUMFJraPGp", "creatorId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "creatorUsername": "nfd", "creatorName": "nfd", "createdTime": 1674435379142, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnfd%2Fhayapain.jpg?alt=media&token=ea407344-a33a-4b5b-beb1-efea3842a48f", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will Arizona canned drinks still have \"99\u00a2\" printed on the can in the US through 2023?", "slug": "will-arizona-canned-drinks-still-ha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/nfd/will-arizona-canned-drinks-still-ha", "pool": {"NO": 3344.56754529401, "YES": 169.3161720376405}, "probability": 0.9874132042291984, "p": 0.7988488945988055, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4919.916369389536, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704177487324, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "BB5ZIBNqNKddjaZQUnqkFCiDyTs2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704177487494, "lastBetTime": 1703710035423, "lastCommentTime": 1703905897732, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arizona famously makes ~23 oz. canned iced teas/fruit flavored drinks, with their cans labelled with \"GREAT BUY! 99\u00a2\". Will that price still be on the can through the year 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Widespread removal of the 99\u00a2 indicator, an increase or decrease in the indicated price, or general discontinuation of this sort of product resolves NO. If some flavors remove/change the label but others don't, or the label is dropped in some but not all US markets, market does not immediately resolve NO. Sufficient evidence to resolve NO before 2024 would include press releases, minor news coverage, etc.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMUZ2sVjLfY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMUZ2sVjLfY", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-jim5zpUnQ.png?alt=media&token=91bf3ed8-3a4d-4dc3-8ae9-3ada4be5f7e6", "groupSlugs": ["food", "fun", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Arizona famously makes ~23 oz. canned iced teas/fruit flavored drinks, with their cans labelled with \"GREAT BUY! 99\u00a2\". Will that price still be on the can through the year 2023?\n\nWidespread removal of the 99\u00a2 indicator, an increase or decrease in the indicated price, or general discontinuation of this sort of product resolves NO. If some flavors remove/change the label but others don't, or the label is dropped in some but not all US markets, market does not immediately resolve NO. Sufficient evidence to resolve NO before 2024 would include press releases, minor news coverage, etc.\n\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMUZ2sVjLfY"}, {"id": "15UCKahDgO8DuQT4nCFn", "creatorId": "LK6CCZswBMWC6t9Vb6ckkCvYgKI2", "creatorUsername": "wilkess", "creatorName": "David Wilkes", "createdTime": 1694468563503, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdrElFQf6z03gQPpj05OlAZUfNHQrYOQMkiA8hJH10P=s96-c", "closeTime": 1699657790511, "question": "Will North Korea supply weapons / munitions to Russia? [100M subsidy]", "slug": "will-north-korea-supply-weapons-mun", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wilkess/will-north-korea-supply-weapons-mun", "pool": {"NO": 1411.6208642695076, "YES": 153.28004034780972}, "probability": 0.951109058849412, "p": 0.6787011720748536, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1800.7328383543738, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699657790511, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699657781439, "lastBetTime": 1699654909522, "lastCommentTime": 1699657780808, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a lot of talk from the West about NK potentially supplying weapons and / or munitions to Russia. In particular the Pentagon has warned Kim against it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will an agreement be made whereby NK supplies weapons or munitions to Russia? If so, this resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As to what confirms that, my initial thought is to wait for a reliable news source to break it (e.g. BBC). However, they will likely quote a Pentagon source, or something like that, which makes me doubt how true it would be. Happy to take suggestions on what should cause the resolution criteria to occur.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[Normally I vote in my markets, but this time I won't unless a very clear resolution criteria is agreed on]", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["north-korea", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "There is a lot of talk from the West about NK potentially supplying weapons and / or munitions to Russia. In particular the Pentagon has warned Kim against it.\n\nWill an agreement be made whereby NK supplies weapons or munitions to Russia? If so, this resolves YES.\n\nAs to what confirms that, my initial thought is to wait for a reliable news source to break it (e.g. BBC). However, they will likely quote a Pentagon source, or something like that, which makes me doubt how true it would be. Happy to take suggestions on what should cause the resolution criteria to occur.\n\n[Normally I vote in my markets, but this time I won't unless a very clear resolution criteria is agreed on]"}, {"id": "Zg2daFN3RQ9tu0DV0H3G", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1697291716173, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697400100178, "question": "Will the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts in their Week 6 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-beat-9b50593da33b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-jacksonville-jaguars-beat-9b50593da33b", "pool": {"NO": 7421.658145010713, "YES": 42.92915083134085}, "probability": 0.9978803968857676, "p": 0.7314119176525568, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9404.648123670062, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697400108044, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697400078500, "lastBetTime": 1697400078372, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Jaguars win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Colts win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["football", "sports-default", "nfl", "jacksonville-jaguars", "indianapolis-colts"], "textDescription": "Yes - Jaguars win\n\nNo - Colts win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "ylcxgtKQFcxKZDkmAHuv", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708726962943, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708974212674, "question": "Will Pfizer OPEN higher than 27.76 on February 26?", "slug": "will-pfizer-open-higher-than-2776-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-pfizer-open-higher-than-2776-o", "pool": {"NO": 80.74777228453786, "YES": 2867.9402738916083}, "probability": 0.0032196274743035505, "p": 0.10291513109516724, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3759.299744652422, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708974212674, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708974213223, "lastBetTime": 1708974020173, "lastCommentTime": 1708974207992, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pfizer Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Open Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=PFE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PFE opens at 9:30am EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock opens higher than 27.76", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock opens lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock opens flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F8aef7612bd79.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "medicine", "stock-marketweekly", "stocks-league-beta", "keen-stocks", "stocks", "technology-default", "science-default", "world-default", "finance"], "textDescription": "Pfizer Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Open Price\n\nPFE opens at 9:30am EST\n\nResolves YES if stock opens higher than 27.76\n\nResolves NO if stock opens lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock opens flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "zF5q02NpuXOWsZ6hWmkQ", "creatorId": "6o90GIgsJqSiNajzYtB4ArK8YBo2", "creatorUsername": "jeremiahsamroo", "creatorName": "Jeremiah", "createdTime": 1679942785305, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjeremiahsamroo%2FsiWp7tu8AO.jpeg?alt=media&token=c690ec86-1405-475d-8505-bf96c382dfc3", "closeTime": 1695074883532, "question": "Will Princeton University top the 2023-2024 edition of the Best Colleges Ranking from US News & World Report?", "slug": "will-princeton-university-top-the-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jeremiahsamroo/will-princeton-university-top-the-2", "pool": {"NO": 5598.153716962914, "YES": 241.0248414470971}, "probability": 0.9898188113017597, "p": 0.8071641911775422, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9655.433872883486, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695074883532, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712819923164, "lastBetTime": 1695066261660, "lastCommentTime": 1712819922667, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Princeton University has been ranked the #1 University in America for 14 years running. Will Princeton once again top the USNews rankings when they are released this fall?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if Princeton University is the sole college ranked #1, or if a tie for #1 is granted and Princeton is one of the tying colleges. This market will resolve to NO if Princeton is ranked anywhere other than first place or first place (tie).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FcYm1l_WCSk.png?alt=media&token=3b875e71-5f81-4456-9a96-359bc78177f6", "groupSlugs": ["colleges-universities"], "textDescription": "Princeton University has been ranked the #1 University in America for 14 years running. Will Princeton once again top the USNews rankings when they are released this fall?\n\nThis market will resolve to YES if Princeton University is the sole college ranked #1, or if a tie for #1 is granted and Princeton is one of the tying colleges. This market will resolve to NO if Princeton is ranked anywhere other than first place or first place (tie)."}, {"id": "EDSOJmyOVyTyWciuHaVG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1705151053389, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1705217700000, "question": "Will flight DL 225 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-14 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-fac92a8400df", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-225-from-paris-to-bo-fac92a8400df", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.08196721311475409, "p": 0.08196721311475409, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705393334211, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705393334526, "lastBetTime": 1705151058548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-14 07:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 09:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/225?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/225?year=2024&month=01&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl225", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F8ac27c984332.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 225 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-14 07:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-14 - 09:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "9ZX5BhIsLmdmxqFIoTHH", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424699747, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708683300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-ae5c1bd05550", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-ae5c1bd05550", "pool": {"NO": 67.02305320375277, "YES": 83.4811218250663}, "probability": 0.15999999999999995, "p": 0.1917553906775257, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21.167258569005615, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708769428468, "resolutionProbability": 0.16, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708769428771, "lastBetTime": 1708529603781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-23 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F59ad0dfc31fc.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-23 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "UW6jisC5VT27KDBxbwpV", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1698935360187, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1701493140000, "question": "Will Leagues profit count only realized profits in Season 8?", "slug": "will-leagues-profit-count-only-real-7e70eaa3d1f6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-leagues-profit-count-only-real-7e70eaa3d1f6", "pool": {"NO": 43.00999020519373, "YES": 689.9999999999999}, "probability": 0.009463724718975441, "p": 0.13290415708993933, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 600, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701716606580, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701710124804, "lastBetTime": 1701446850621, "lastCommentTime": 1701710124295, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if at the start of the season, Leagues does not count unrealized profits. If it counts all realized profits, or if it counts only profits on resolved questions (a subset of realized profits), that would count as YES. This resolves based on the calculation at the beginning of the season, regardless of whether it later changes. (If leagues ceases to exist, or no longer counts profits at all, resolves N/A.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pros:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Counting unrealized profits is only \"accurate\" if the market price is \"correct\". It creates an incentive to manipulate market prices to create paper profits. This has been observed many many times now, and basically creates incentives for all markets to be gamed like whalebait markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Unrealized profits are often highly volatile", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Cons:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You don't immediately benefit (or lose) for predictions made for later months. (Although if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " is changed as well, those will eventually count in the month in which the question resolves.)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also note, counting realized profits on unresolved questions might create problematic incentives as well - you might want to sell your position to realize the profits for league standings, or you might want to wait so you can count them next month. So I believe it would be better to count only resolved questions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question it doesn't matter what non-profit numbers are included in Leagues (e.g. bonuses, etc)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "f0947754-9015-4e88-b408-46cc74968916", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o", "image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Will+Leagues+profit+be+calculated+on+your+whole+portfolio+for+Season+4+%28vs+just+bets+made+within+the+season%29%3F&numTraders=43&volume=1575&probability=80%25&creatorName=James&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa-%2FAOh14GjC83uMe-fEfzd6QvxiK6ZqZdlMytuHxevgMYIkpAI%3Ds96-c&points=Uo_EUwAAAD9Tj8RTCNbRPlSPxFMAAAA_VY_EU0mwCz9Vj8RTG-MNP1aPxFML_ME-WY_EU0gdHT9aj8RTTTYFP2SPxFPyuAM_ZI_EUxKKMz9kj8RTfUw3P2SPxFMx0To_ZI_EU1bsYT9kj8RT9ihcP2SPxFM9Clc_aI_EU-x3WD9oj8RTzcxMP2iPxFPNzEw_f4_EU0PkRz-Bj8RTzcxMP4GPxFPNzEw_go_EU83MTD-Mj8RT4VtEP4yPxFMUrkc_l4_EU0sIUj-Xj8RT4XpUP7CPxFOKyE4_tI_EU2qLQj-0j8RTuB5FP7aPxFOv6kY_to_EUyOzQD-6j8RTZmYmP7qPxFN7FC4_wI_EUxg7KD_jj8RTp54qP-OPxFPDGS8_5Y_EU3OWKj_lj8RTZmYmP_SPxFNv_zE_9I_EU3sULj_4j8RTKeQsP_iPxFOXuys__o_EU-QUMT8OkMRTqoktPw6QxFPb-ik_FpDEUwWuKz8XkMRTuUQoPxeQxFMCTiU_G5DEU1gAIj87kMRTCPUdPz6QxFPpxRc_S5DEU0DQFD9RkMRT9ugmP16QxFOzcig_YJDEU55ZKz9gkMRTexQuP2OQxFN_Ois_hJDEU9P3Kj-MkMRTU2coP5SQxFNjUCc_spDEU1OPLT-zkMRTy94vP8CQxFPL3i8_wJDEU8veLz_FkMRTy94vP8WQxFPL3i8_25DEUxwdNT_hkMRTmgo3P-GQxFPsUTg_bJPEU62lMj9cn8RTS3M1Px6ixFO36kI_xLvEUw8zTj_Eu8RTKVxPP8i8xFO49E4_aL3EUwifTD_8vcRTHf5OP5nIxFPDFk0_", "title": "Will Leagues profit be calculated on your whole portfolio for Season 4 (vs just bets made within the season)?", "inputKey": "create marketWill Leagues profit be calculated on your whole portfolio for Season 4 (vs just bets made within the season)?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "80% chance. I\u2019m looking for further input and analysis from the community on this question! Originallly we concieved of leagues as a mini-game that restarts from scratch each month, so any older bets were discounted. But the idea of including profit on your entire portfolio (all shares that you ow\u2026", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-leagues"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if at the start of the season, Leagues does not count unrealized profits. If it counts all realized profits, or if it counts only profits on resolved questions (a subset of realized profits), that would count as YES. This resolves based on the calculation at the beginning of the season, regardless of whether it later changes. (If leagues ceases to exist, or no longer counts profits at all, resolves N/A.)\n\nPros:\n\nCounting unrealized profits is only \"accurate\" if the market price is \"correct\". It creates an incentive to manipulate market prices to create paper profits. This has been observed many many times now, and basically creates incentives for all markets to be gamed like whalebait markets.\n\nUnrealized profits are often highly volatile\n\nCons:\n\nYou don't immediately benefit (or lose) for predictions made for later months. (Although if https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o is changed as well, those will eventually count in the month in which the question resolves.)\n\nAlso note, counting realized profits on unresolved questions might create problematic incentives as well - you might want to sell your position to realize the profits for league standings, or you might want to wait so you can count them next month. So I believe it would be better to count only resolved questions.\n\nFor this question it doesn't matter what non-profit numbers are included in Leagues (e.g. bonuses, etc)\n\nRelated: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "17JLsUb7ckUWskuFD9gW", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1693769276494, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1694315704416, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Wisconsin defeat Washington State?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w", "pool": {"NO": 15.431273927837992, "YES": 5142.509392224923}, "probability": 0.0020759092288243305, "p": 0.4094165743127256, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8133.55267970989, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694315704416, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694315645695, "lastBetTime": 1694315645545, "lastCommentTime": 1694308829549, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 9, 2023 - 4:30 PM PDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Martin Stadium - Pullman, Washington", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pac-12 Week 2 games:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "nAvkBw5of89PZtc4QAEq", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-mis"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "lDoKvdNBTMWUaI26YeHi", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-state-def"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uNLzaNOunpIAH2nF7qWh", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-auburn-defeat-cali"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "75oDBIrYz5slNP8NJAlS", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-nebraska-defeat-co"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5P5o29yEndiyREMcB5wa", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-texa"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hrUnGRgTwC18ekGWaXP4", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-uc-davis-defeat-or"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hqSwtJkb3MfOJUTCZmcQ", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "WuLE46wNXj27GQmovUUW", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-san-di"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "hqSwtJkb3MfOJUTCZmcQ", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "qdodorQHOHQ98mBWyFc6", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-baylor"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "9hddUuSZsE5AOUzTARlm", "label": "/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-tulsa-defea"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "17JLsUb7ckUWskuFD9gW", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w"}}, {"text": " (this market)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["washington", "university-of-wisconsinmadison", "sports-default", "wisconsin", "college-football", "football", "washington-state-university", "pac12", "big-ten"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 9, 2023 - 4:30 PM PDT\n\nMartin Stadium - Pullman, Washington\n\nPac-12 Week 2 games:\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-mis \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oklahoma-state-def \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-auburn-defeat-cali \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-nebraska-defeat-co \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-oregon-defeat-texa \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-uc-davis-defeat-or \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ucla-defeat-san-di \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-us \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-baylor \n@/jks/2023-ncaa-football-will-tulsa-defea \n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-defeat-w (this market)"}, {"id": "mwtGEGhwX4cbx81ODluK", "creatorId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "creatorUsername": "Jenny", "creatorName": "Jenny", "createdTime": 1670780347114, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJenny%2Flove-images%2FyYxFwtOBjr.jpg?alt=media&token=16473d3a-0b90-42b3-9dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0", "closeTime": 1671051801184, "question": "Will Argentina and France reach the final?", "slug": "will-argentina-and-france-reach-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-argentina-and-france-reach-the", "pool": {"NO": 14046.734669410715, "YES": 235.93898070860737}, "probability": 0.9924110883199855, "p": 0.6871604135834165, "totalLiquidity": 1010, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15621.725819533727, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671051801184, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 52, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671051618114, "lastBetTime": 1671051617990, "lastCommentTime": 1670869685777, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mwtGEGhwX4cbx81ODluK", "label": "/Yev/will-argentina-and-france-reach-the"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "nq99APGid5HpwGVM9fWY", "label": "/egroj/will-there-be-an-upset-at-the-semif"}}, {"text": " (complement)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "5UAeJN89i9UESG9wDjdU", "label": "/Yev/will-argentina-and-morocco-reach-th"}}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PHo3jfYFeUNNJM5ABtEJ", "label": "/howtodowtle/will-we-get-a-rematch-of-the-2018-f"}}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "meuWcF6Zvtx0Jd1R1FwE", "label": "/Yev/will-croatia-and-morocco-reach-the"}}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-12-14 5:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F56drzuufQN.png?alt=media&token=1871453b-6545-47b8-8358-9a77c73227c7", "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup", "soccer", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "See also:\n\n@/Yev/will-argentina-and-france-reach-the@/egroj/will-there-be-an-upset-at-the-semif (complement)\n\n@/Yev/will-argentina-and-morocco-reach-th@/howtodowtle/will-we-get-a-rematch-of-the-2018-f@/Yev/will-croatia-and-morocco-reach-the\nClose date updated to 2022-12-14 5:00 pm"}, {"id": "gBQOfscbDXlWIK6pfLck", "creatorId": "SXkPkdIew6WpUSIWhkwpvM7w0b62", "creatorUsername": "LightningBee", "creatorName": "Lightning Bee \u26a1 \ud83d\udc1d", "createdTime": 1692620541516, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLightningBee%2F8SfMbbOv8w.jpg?alt=media&token=2e98dae2-0d31-4db9-8428-12a5273b4519", "closeTime": 1704002340000, "question": "Will LlamaGPT hit 20,000\u2b50 stars on Github in 2023?", "slug": "will-llamagpt-hit-20000-stars-on-gi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-llamagpt-hit-20000-stars-on-gi", "pool": {"NO": 115.13590040354364, "YES": 965.6335819551059}, "probability": 0.029001176073203523, "p": 0.20031646943689857, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1653.0750500561398, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704146424150, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "fSrex43BDjeneNZ4ZLfxllSb8b42", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710223223949, "lastBetTime": 1703477880403, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LlamaGPT is a self-hosted, offline, ChatGPT-like chatbot, powered by Llama 2, sitting on Umbrel self-hosting devices.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will it hit 20,000 stars on Github in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://github.com/getumbrel/llama-gpt", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://github.com/getumbrel/llama-gpt", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://star-history.com/#getumbrel/llama-gpt&Date", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://star-history.com/#getumbrel/llama-gpt&Date", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1693565363404132852"}}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "f898be27-1a0d-4012-a11f-3621ce509962", "url": "https://github.com/getumbrel/llama-gpt", "image": "https://opengraph.githubassets.com/9ad86568ed21023b53699cdd569905cb4103bdbc46e56e827aa9bc51b40e33ee/getumbrel/llama-gpt", "title": "GitHub - getumbrel/llama-gpt: A self-hosted, offline, ChatGPT-like chatbot. Powered by Llama 2. 100% private, with no data leaving your device.", "inputKey": "create marketWill Umbrel hit 5,500\u2b50 stars on Github in 2023?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "A self-hosted, offline, ChatGPT-like chatbot. Powered by Llama 2. 100% private, with no data leaving your device. - GitHub - getumbrel/llama-gpt: A self-hosted, offline, ChatGPT-like chatbot. Powered by Llama 2. 100% private, with no data leaving your device.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "bitcoin", "bitcoin-maxi", "internet", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "social-media", "github", "open-source", "lightning-network"], "textDescription": "LlamaGPT is a self-hosted, offline, ChatGPT-like chatbot, powered by Llama 2, sitting on Umbrel self-hosting devices.\n\nWill it hit 20,000 stars on Github in 2023?\n\nhttps://github.com/getumbrel/llama-gpt\n\n\nhttps://star-history.com/#getumbrel/llama-gpt&Date\n\n[tweet][link preview]"}, {"id": "cWgXwUcbVuXBAlGKBtZI", "creatorId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "creatorUsername": "kurt", "creatorName": "fish", "createdTime": 1705773662239, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkurt%2FANF2sWHbu1.jpeg?alt=media&token=865faba8-0400-4d5a-8ea6-9b4d3d6f8834", "closeTime": 1705797442413, "question": "Will Lamar Jackson account for more points himself (passing, rushing, receiving) than the entire Houston Texans offense?", "slug": "will-lamar-jackson-account-for-more", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kurt/will-lamar-jackson-account-for-more", "pool": {"NO": 2146.1023927311453, "YES": 37.69173131616243}, "probability": 0.9948736658619455, "p": 0.773162800183766, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2622.997049944122, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705797442413, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "RabTJS18F8W5aAr9kPySvIUwIlz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705797443732, "lastBetTime": 1705796246522, "lastCommentTime": 1705796292627, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Divisional Round game 1/20/24:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "6 pts for touchdowns thrown, received, or rushed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Extra points do not count for Lamar unless its a 2PT conversion.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Extra points and field goals do count for Houston.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Safeties, defensive, and kick return scores do not count for Houston (although Extra points off of defensive/special teams TDs do)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/kurt%2F620156303030.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "baltimore-ravens", "houston-texans", "nfl-playoffs"], "textDescription": "Divisional Round game 1/20/24:\n6 pts for touchdowns thrown, received, or rushed.\n\nExtra points do not count for Lamar unless its a 2PT conversion.\nExtra points and field goals do count for Houston.\nSafeties, defensive, and kick return scores do not count for Houston (although Extra points off of defensive/special teams TDs do)"}, {"id": "CgFtpkffTemxL8zE6YMF", "creatorId": "S431x1beK8UfE1c8qZ5FBhbhkaE2", "creatorUsername": "jonjordanc3f0", "creatorName": "jon jordan", "createdTime": 1694813178945, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjKT026lymZAbMYITwXdu6s0dxGfTSGl9OJlC-o=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market be 50% or higher at EOY 2023?", "slug": "will-bitcoins-dominance-of-the-cryp", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jonjordanc3f0/will-bitcoins-dominance-of-the-cryp", "pool": {"NO": 15020.390834124177, "YES": 536.0989219869398}, "probability": 0.975946354397021, "p": 0.5915256209273129, "totalLiquidity": 2250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 29078.396594833626, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704095677394, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 102, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206852599, "lastBetTime": 1704030697933, "lastCommentTime": 1702837135362, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Historic Bitcoin dominance can be viewed here, which will also be oracle for the market's resolution. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "a2e22ded-7c97-4adb-9003-f8fbeaba0f48", "url": "https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/", "image": "https://s3-symbol-logo.tradingview.com/crypto/XTVCBTC--600.png", "title": "Bitcoin Dominance Chart \u2014 BTC.D \u2014 TradingView", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Watch Bitcoin dominance and how it changed over time \u2014 calculated by TradingView, this ratio can help you see the crypto market from a different angle.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "crypto-speculation", "bitcoin", "crypto-prices", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Historic Bitcoin dominance can be viewed here, which will also be oracle for the market's resolution. \n\nhttps://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "eHgEClKJ8H7AUR0K8iyC", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1669687969826, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1696772541565, "question": "Will NYT publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024?", "slug": "will-nyt-publish-an-article-mention", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-nyt-publish-an-article-mention", "pool": {"NO": 91614.34419125211, "YES": 108.77782226147379}, "probability": 0.9991436402098217, "p": 0.580768162637846, "totalLiquidity": 1950, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 179933.03305302848, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696772541565, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 258, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696916487708, "lastBetTime": 1696772482372, "lastCommentTime": 1696916487054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the New York Times publishes an article that mentions Manifold, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It must specifically mention Manifold by name in the article text, e.g. a screenshot of Manifold would not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It must actually refer to Manifold (this website), e.g. the words \"manifold markets\" next to each other referring to something else wouldn't count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on google search ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "site:nytimes.com \"manifold markets\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "code"}]}, {"text": " or if a article meeting the criteria is linked in the comments.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification: This means that I will examine links found by a google search like this and links posted in the comments to see whether they meet the criteria.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If manifold changes its name, the question will resolve YES if NYT mentions Manifold by either its old or new name.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification: podcasts, videos, etc are not articles.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an article links to manifold without actually saying manifold in the text, that does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNHTZ_k4PuT.png?alt=media&token=18b15f42-5827-4420-ab73-51d14d5710a9", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "manifold-business-future"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if by the end of 2023, the New York Times publishes an article that mentions Manifold, otherwise NO.\n\nFine print:\n\nIt must specifically mention Manifold by name in the article text, e.g. a screenshot of Manifold would not count.\n\nIt must actually refer to Manifold (this website), e.g. the words \"manifold markets\" next to each other referring to something else wouldn't count.\n\nResolution will be based on google search site:nytimes.com \"manifold markets\" or if a article meeting the criteria is linked in the comments.\n\nClarification: This means that I will examine links found by a google search like this and links posted in the comments to see whether they meet the criteria.\n\nIf manifold changes its name, the question will resolve YES if NYT mentions Manifold by either its old or new name.\n\nClarification: podcasts, videos, etc are not articles.\n\nIf an article links to manifold without actually saying manifold in the text, that does not count."}, {"id": "r9DSuWCJ2HY5olakRQfk", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1697917088659, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698030972088, "question": "Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Miami Dolphins in their Week 7 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-5b725689b807", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-beat-t-5b725689b807", "pool": {"NO": 11874.264279450086, "YES": 54.86272697023287}, "probability": 0.9974792976188175, "p": 0.6464336335943126, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17058.462640608803, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698030978747, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 29, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698030920516, "lastBetTime": 1698030920373, "lastCommentTime": 1697930126675, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Eagles win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Dolphins win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["philadelphia-eagles", "football", "nfl", "sports-default", "miami-dolphins"], "textDescription": "Yes - Eagles win\n\nNo - Dolphins win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "PFVvnsHBnUuTKhuS3wm4", "creatorId": "3XYZN0afx2X9H1Uzjf9kFSWpbIl1", "creatorUsername": "dagnazty", "creatorName": "Daggy", "createdTime": 1691366591084, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdagnazty%2FaVldizbTTc.png?alt=media&token=ddc8213c-e7e8-49c5-b259-c7456eb239bc", "closeTime": 1691449200000, "question": "Will XMR (XMR/USD) close higher on August 7 than it closed on August 6?", "slug": "will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-7b0bfe852b4d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dagnazty/will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-7b0bfe852b4d", "pool": {"NO": 75.6833222091735, "YES": 635.5895579163177}, "probability": 0.08794883983991746, "p": 0.4474582840208445, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 627.9221981896956, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691453322424, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691453318314, "lastBetTime": 1691446777231, "lastCommentTime": 1691453314738, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": $159.8360", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is experimental.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "265e317f-7381-4c4f-8e50-069cb2e3e121", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Monero (XMR) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Monero (XMR / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $159.8360\n\nThis market is experimental.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "K84GKlsxMbvP8ARnAWj6", "creatorId": "5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2", "creatorUsername": "MattLashofSullivan", "creatorName": "Matt Lashof-Sullivan", "createdTime": 1702216196497, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLS04zSTXXFhgB1eacAIEE9U0EH4jKv5V55bjuYL9e-FHw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710856927153, "question": "Will the Supreme Court affirm in FBI v Fikre (no fly list case)?", "slug": "will-the-supreme-court-affirm-in-fb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MattLashofSullivan/will-the-supreme-court-affirm-in-fb", "pool": {"NO": 660.5143245259991, "YES": 24.46285912509353}, "probability": 0.9638633038176798, "p": 0.4969444935064814, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 685.0834627293326, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710856927153, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "5vEowFr3rBPiRMtqc8UPhqpbHWh2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710860838159, "lastBetTime": 1710856906913, "lastCommentTime": 1710860837605, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/federal-bureau-of-investigation-v-fikre/", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["court-cases", "supreme-court"], "textDescription": "https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/federal-bureau-of-investigation-v-fikre/"}, {"id": "jK3F0xabnJSEgM3IYHSr", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1694807561894, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1696168800000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will the AP top five teams for Week 5 maintain their rankings for Week 6?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-the-ap-top-five-te-b238457e5484", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-the-ap-top-five-te-b238457e5484", "pool": {"NO": 132.21369537124548, "YES": 170.7821553424459}, "probability": 0.4199999999999996, "p": 0.4833051805303238, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 145.41863466211285, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696187062670, "resolutionProbability": 0.42, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696161257760, "lastBetTime": 1696161257470, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will update this after the rankings are released on Sunday, September 24.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week 5 Top Five (w/ #s 6\u201310)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rank, Team, (W-L), points, (first place votes)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 2}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 6}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "college-football", "football"], "textDescription": "I will update this after the rankings are released on Sunday, September 24.\n\nWeek 5 Top Five (w/ #s 6\u201310)\n\nRank, Team, (W-L), points, (first place votes)\n\n"}, {"id": "3Pe7pYrPLwg3ascu2as2", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1680714514477, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1684025417809, "question": "Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (New York Knicks)", "slug": "which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-bb801f13fe5a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-bb801f13fe5a", "pool": {"NO": 117.07183210298446, "YES": 1942.940473449681}, "probability": 0.008166016294183155, "p": 0.1202140819475859, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2668.5000719718173, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684025417809, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683988951553, "lastBetTime": 1683988951251, "lastCommentTime": 1683952548991, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15720/new-york-knicks/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15720/new-york-knicks/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FvA9F5O05_R.png?alt=media&token=07296957-5a06-4eba-be6a-8a9b0442bf64", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "basketball"], "textDescription": "From https://metaculus.com/questions/15720/new-york-knicks/"}, {"id": "501YY76W1wNRMLTOzFi9", "creatorId": "WetAYdhsYpX8uoFR7btWx6wElMK2", "creatorUsername": "constantine", "creatorName": "constantine+-", "createdTime": 1697659463050, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fyawnstantine%2FuFamMrcp54.png?alt=media&token=e6d10dd3-4a36-43ef-832c-58631d0defe2", "closeTime": 1698527931652, "question": "Will New Zealand win both the 2023 Rugby World Cup and the 2023 Cricket World Cup?", "slug": "will-new-zealand-win-both-the-2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/constantine/will-new-zealand-win-both-the-2023", "pool": {"NO": 65.95806032217222, "YES": 11099.625920953462}, "probability": 0.0015930179300012062, "p": 0.2116708705125723, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15681.332581022716, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698527931652, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698527223347, "lastBetTime": 1698527223053, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve this earlier if NZ gets knocked out of either tournament.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FlvX5Bl73hh.png?alt=media&token=0446ec93-e0e1-47ec-ae2f-12d18d71fe0f", "groupSlugs": ["rugby-union", "rugby", "2023-rugby-world-cup", "sports-default", "cricket", "cricket-world-cup-2023"], "textDescription": "I'll resolve this earlier if NZ gets knocked out of either tournament."}, {"id": "CtpmUBEhPgBfm3MUIquO", "creatorId": "toFuvWdYFchnB6mljZSNrUpQAjf1", "creatorUsername": "kottsiek", "creatorName": "kottsiek", "createdTime": 1677023838864, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fkottsiek%2FwRnRSugf_h.webp?alt=media&token=1724b924-bad0-4b5f-8484-0109a1811f48", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will there be meaningful electoral reform in Germany in 2023?", "slug": "will-there-be-meaningful-electoral", "url": "https://manifold.markets/kottsiek/will-there-be-meaningful-electoral", "pool": {"NO": 1442.4918190427416, "YES": 234.88053424661152}, "probability": 0.9407201190275059, "p": 0.7209794874476945, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2425.1290661948997, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704072907885, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "toFuvWdYFchnB6mljZSNrUpQAjf1", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704072908848, "lastBetTime": 1703765616271, "lastCommentTime": 1687210872202, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Everyone agrees that the Bundestag is too big and bloated. For years there have been talks and attempts at electoral reform, but nothing was succesful. Will this year be different? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For more background information: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-shrink-its-xxl-parliament/a-64471203", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-shrink-its-xxl-parliament/a-64471203", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes, if there is electoral reform that reduces the expected number of seats by 100 or more (there are currently 736 seats).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thx for your comments. I have decided that this market resolves as follows", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(i) no BVG ruling in 2023:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves yes at the end of the year, unless there is strong evidence that the reform will not take effect before the next election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(ii) BVG ruling in 2023:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the BVG rules in favor of the reform, this resolves Yes immediately", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the BVG rules against the reform, this resolves No, if there is no other reform until the end of the year", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FlwbXvAOaZW.png?alt=media&token=213c6773-de93-4016-9b17-8f14abd7e5e6", "groupSlugs": ["germany", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Everyone agrees that the Bundestag is too big and bloated. For years there have been talks and attempts at electoral reform, but nothing was succesful. Will this year be different? \n\nFor more background information: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-set-to-shrink-its-xxl-parliament/a-64471203\n\nResolves Yes, if there is electoral reform that reduces the expected number of seats by 100 or more (there are currently 736 seats).\n\nThx for your comments. I have decided that this market resolves as follows\n\n(i) no BVG ruling in 2023:\n\nThis resolves yes at the end of the year, unless there is strong evidence that the reform will not take effect before the next election.\n\n(ii) BVG ruling in 2023:\n\nIf the BVG rules in favor of the reform, this resolves Yes immediately\n\nIf the BVG rules against the reform, this resolves No, if there is no other reform until the end of the year"}, {"id": "tRxq6j8cjRzAIBDrFyhO", "creatorId": "a8yV3p3gEWWMPFYr3quuLFZ5tR43", "creatorUsername": "awaitepawana", "creatorName": "awaitepawana", "createdTime": 1709765441282, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKJylRjnDR-SK-6NPk4hqEV_MKwKvtucrajUwkRrklq=s96-c", "closeTime": 1711034537835, "question": "Will the Department of Justice sue Apple for antitrust violations before Easter Sunday?", "slug": "will-the-department-of-justice-sue", "url": "https://manifold.markets/awaitepawana/will-the-department-of-justice-sue", "pool": {"NO": 602.9227063704775, "YES": 121.3501524150559}, "probability": 0.9234377207685551, "p": 0.7082479658694679, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 435, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711034559860, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "resolverId": "a8yV3p3gEWWMPFYr3quuLFZ5tR43", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711034537835, "lastBetTime": 1711033374005, "lastCommentTime": 1710788276377, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the suit is formally announced on or before March 30th, resolves yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["legal-decisions", "law", "lawsuits"], "textDescription": "If the suit is formally announced on or before March 30th, resolves yes."}, {"id": "rA5hwlIIoX0M09wAcilA", "creatorId": "tp9Hfh70vJabIB9JvjMNug1uUIr1", "creatorUsername": "DocTobogganMD", "creatorName": "DocTobogganMD", "createdTime": 1692476435113, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDocTobogganMD%2FAF5korxAhr.jpg?alt=media&token=47ed6d6a-675e-4da0-952e-78786619c9f8", "closeTime": 1692686621747, "question": "Will Downtown Los Angeles get more than 3 inches of rain by Monday August 21st at 11:59pm?", "slug": "will-downtown-los-angeles-get-more", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DocTobogganMD/will-downtown-los-angeles-get-more", "pool": {"NO": 171.61323301284062, "YES": 1241.8189400554575}, "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "p": 0.4171349830834899, "totalLiquidity": 470, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2126.5410166026977, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1692686621747, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692686561252, "lastBetTime": 1692681185575, "lastCommentTime": 1692686557897, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Los Angeles is facing its first hurrican/tropical storm in 84 years...how much rain will it get?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["climate", "weather", "extreme-weather"], "textDescription": "Los Angeles is facing its first hurrican/tropical storm in 84 years...how much rain will it get?"}, {"id": "Ae24yg3GNgHGVnpE5tyO", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701455548096, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702051200000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher december 8th than the close of december 1th? (Weekly Market)", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-december-8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-december-8", "pool": {"NO": 1809.1054858983398, "YES": 113.62168783190936}, "probability": 0.9868681736898495, "p": 0.8251712910127561, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3382.37331649419, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702056057886, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702056055551, "lastBetTime": 1702047200521, "lastCommentTime": 1702056053621, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F0n6A5XWBr2.png?alt=media&token=b9792a79-475a-4188-b472-0deb66425cfd", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos/ee34e7e9fa01.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=TB2HJ1S9xGZ5%2Fs%2B47Q4QEUujoeJtoBux144U3qyG%2FZnSfCz5cF0%2BgQK2szbVcv7%2BYU0UTDNRBm38PwTsRd2a%2BG6ilSMQN0aiPrh4P4F7klYCy61rs9%2F4dq39WAQ5E1R5qkaqBAKogLxsNOjTTpb3ftgQEHikf83D94JHNJlEz6CoO1XD06dKddOstREUNefrB2ChjgwpGLYJmsC%2Fbx%2BXMl2enR5oUzclySFVCl%2BJehXIPibgh9sbFNKqHk%2BKDUvYSclbjHXdi0px0tK2UD96mn46yHFe%2FeYegV9pDubEOnRoAF12EGPGgQ3PxrzR7svSxJvcuCnwCLRse3RBofGCvA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "gBb76xWZb2dP0BWHCRq6", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701988422828, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702162800000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on December 9 than it closed on December 8?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-december-9", "pool": {"NO": 257.09501300778993, "YES": 144.63668733844455}, "probability": 0.7281563837003011, "p": 0.6011042206925477, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1512.7694747070805, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702168725339, "resolutionProbability": 0.73, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702168703741, "lastBetTime": 1702162761158, "lastCommentTime": 1702168703089, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.6734", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/e070af6eb951.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=T7MIc414QHV1%2FKYwvgzzIdqbcla9GBhD5E7WsHVLDFrGpjPIrWodarZWMn0S0Cinmt2V5Pwmdn0vJEXg98Kho9GQfkZCUMzLQz2gGso%2B6KD2g%2Bki%2BluELpnx4ZMGc4%2Bt5%2BoiRmHcC0dPeMYqF4yGKK0u1gKK%2BsO7Y53VNwJRxfMqhT%2B84iAgXv60TUJrjMvpeFm83%2BDWoiaAlqHZ02VkL6v9iWmEt0XIfhBHmZ8mrH0RJtcKTM7i3r%2FRhd0rM%2Bc66xLJe3LcOSBVdft7ESwmqOIvoa0CwYZDX5Tsxm%2F861WXpeM8GzhQkDedb%2F5QycTwNpXB0vtQp5Fk9Tb%2Fx7iBhg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6734\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "4kgpLby6TpP88tytu6CB", "creatorId": "vZhGI53MBwOaUUUOv8KCX5TQBOq2", "creatorUsername": "SpeaksForTrees", "creatorName": "SpeaksForTrees", "createdTime": 1706913797335, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSequoiaTree%2FhpLJaTqv71.png?alt=media&token=38df0e98-14a2-445a-9f4c-2179b37ecaeb", "closeTime": 1712289540000, "question": "Will the March unemployment rate be 3.8% or above?", "slug": "will-the-march-unemployment-rate-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SpeaksForTrees/will-the-march-unemployment-rate-be", "pool": {"NO": 1770.8902254942047, "YES": 311.99403074132454}, "probability": 0.8985253146359183, "p": 0.60937645221613, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2085.0022786013956, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712347666589, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "vZhGI53MBwOaUUUOv8KCX5TQBOq2", "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714745784482, "lastBetTime": 1712272952512, "lastCommentTime": 1712347655084, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The United States civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). When the data is released during the first week of April, this will resolve YES if unemployment is 3.8% (inclusive) or above, and NO if it is below 3.8%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SpeaksForTrees%2Ffa4b186b1eaf.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "The United States civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). When the data is released during the first week of April, this will resolve YES if unemployment is 3.8% (inclusive) or above, and NO if it is below 3.8%."}, {"id": "bB0Zbz10f5aqWn3JIAju", "creatorId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "creatorUsername": "LarsDoucet", "creatorName": "Lars Doucet", "createdTime": 1680757938789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704175140000, "question": "Will China inspecting ships in the Taiwan strait escalate to an armed conflict before 2024?", "slug": "will-china-inspecting-ships-in-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-china-inspecting-ships-in-the", "pool": {"NO": 143.7577506788447, "YES": 10196.753959238004}, "probability": 0.0026303282293652737, "p": 0.15758367781142105, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10082.051825096274, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704182318523, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704182318712, "lastBetTime": 1704174502282, "lastCommentTime": 1680834229101, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1643800651929976834", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1643800651929976834", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If this escalates to an armed conflict in which either China or Taiwan fires any kind of lethal munition in the other's direction (warning shots count), this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FGtcChTaCZq.png?alt=media&token=b5e0e827-fa0f-4ac4-be5f-9d380285ebca", "groupSlugs": ["china", "taiwan", "china-taiwan-potential-conflict", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Context:\nhttps://twitter.com/BonnieGlaser/status/1643800651929976834\n\nIf this escalates to an armed conflict in which either China or Taiwan fires any kind of lethal munition in the other's direction (warning shots count), this market resolves YES."}, {"id": "wmz4HQfcAFQYzD0N8Hw4", "creatorId": "zLKdvySlYYXoLE9rGqHwmCDYdW53", "creatorUsername": "whalelang", "creatorName": "whale", "createdTime": 1690417027603, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fwhalelang%2FHIyXM8rqFA.jpeg?alt=media&token=44b77519-61d7-4220-a762-57d90ca81b05", "closeTime": 1691372387593, "question": "Will there be more than 1 films released this year that gross over $1B worldwide?", "slug": "will-there-be-more-than-1-films-rel", "url": "https://manifold.markets/whalelang/will-there-be-more-than-1-films-rel", "pool": {"NO": 932.526766927712, "YES": 209.9805357593409}, "probability": 0.9359773230971861, "p": 0.7670040277089436, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1323.5168811440885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691372464961, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691372456839, "lastBetTime": 1691356850438, "lastCommentTime": 1691372453198, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This year, The Super Mario Bros. Movie has grossed over $1B worldwide. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A second film released this year earns over $1B worldwide before January 1st, 2024 according to any reliable box office source or data aggregator. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["boxoffice", "movies", "culture-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "This year, The Super Mario Bros. Movie has grossed over $1B worldwide. \n\nResolves YES if\n\nA second film released this year earns over $1B worldwide before January 1st, 2024 according to any reliable box office source or data aggregator. \n\n"}, {"id": "MqHS2zRDnWyqYjh7iGfA", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424584709, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708497900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-21 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-64df220add4b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-64df220add4b", "pool": {"NO": 62.04117035985062, "YES": 171}, "probability": 0.04184591021392936, "p": 0.1074411504583213, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 101, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708551986513, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708551986890, "lastBetTime": 1708492850995, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-21 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=21", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=21", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fbbe5cf33ebc7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-21 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-21 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "hBlldLDmgeXUuDvjghB7", "creatorId": "pr1zKxu1KMe8Z3bVZ5G3FQNMZ0z2", "creatorUsername": "CivilizedGuy", "creatorName": "Civilized Guy", "createdTime": 1696991804917, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCivilizedGuy%2F6GmoxKj8xc.png?alt=media&token=201a19ab-a7e2-4545-a9af-fc7f516e664d", "closeTime": 1697157813520, "question": "Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Thursday Oct 12?", "slug": "will-taylor-swift-be-at-the-kansas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CivilizedGuy/will-taylor-swift-be-at-the-kansas", "pool": {"NO": 2688.3398083181587, "YES": 166.79742183511476}, "probability": 0.9756472534934553, "p": 0.7131142078673749, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4199.598006128597, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697157813520, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697158186822, "lastBetTime": 1697157767580, "lastCommentTime": 1697158186177, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Thursday Night Football KC vs Den. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question resolves if Taylor is seen on national TV at the game. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["taylor-swift", "nfl", "kansas-city-chiefs"], "textDescription": "Thursday Night Football KC vs Den. \n\nThe question resolves if Taylor is seen on national TV at the game. "}, {"id": "BXVF1hOKlROvEtieD1dQ", "creatorId": "jwSGYJCYkTfQk6z06ZpghPrH8EG2", "creatorUsername": "pierrebezukhov", "creatorName": "Pierre B", "createdTime": 1701459843341, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLzGxbiIRIeiGtANBtLxLj9TVVCHDPC3kM6cP0hL-Jq=s96-c", "closeTime": 1707914554917, "question": "Will a Democrat win the special election for George Santos' seat?", "slug": "will-a-democrat-win-the-special-ele", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pierrebezukhov/will-a-democrat-win-the-special-ele", "pool": {"NO": 47306.70580131132, "YES": 445.2014110096463}, "probability": 0.998972298022348, "p": 0.9014571722571771, "totalLiquidity": 830, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50633.91472214764, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707914554917, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "jwSGYJCYkTfQk6z06ZpghPrH8EG2", "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707920257924, "lastBetTime": 1707906941758, "lastCommentTime": 1707883458986, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve 'yes' iff the Democratic nominee wins the special election for George Santos seat. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/pierrebezukhov/646d8afc8d4f.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=M6lLlFyVCu5pKt274akhluLdxmRyRVcBfUyzXWehoW6aa10KcQWoCnodYu9RgBFMO5Gvn0e4WwWoLnfgesQiFfXDh6dxRm%2FlvCuCdfkkA3%2F7DI2m%2FOX2O3Q1BEtozOQCjqkIhNgGnWb2oDJfomPNZhj7yc3E2qs1kTy69EsrQPAo6OQS4ECY4y5YrwBMwVlAl30mC4%2B1CApag6lpRGXWzo%2Fx0YQgKqvDg4cooMSxdBW%2BnV4GTWpi2QRITf3tIzbu%2FBvqTM7DrLyHoRo1QBLffE3uWjoWS4LomDYJPIMawQIXp0cefnean6oVt3%2F0exWcbiYSjbZHc7MfFC%2Be%2FdBNKw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "george-santos", "us-politics", "new-york", "magaland", "politics-default", "santos-special-election"], "textDescription": "The question will resolve 'yes' iff the Democratic nominee wins the special election for George Santos seat. "}, {"id": "gV8wNb8wed0kfbTVPXal", "creatorId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "creatorUsername": "jacksonpolack", "creatorName": "jackson polack", "createdTime": 1701819740082, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5rlJX8nmgp_EsouBw_JhV5gKCkwTXaqGTDpv9y=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706924068199, "question": "Will Beff participate in a voice debate about AI risk with Connor Leahy before the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-beff-participate-in-a-voice-de-fe48f1a66344", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/will-beff-participate-in-a-voice-de-fe48f1a66344", "pool": {"NO": 40675.829238981176, "YES": 35.99104148073093}, "probability": 0.9997157855430147, "p": 0.7568300166130372, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 41793.93928893668, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706924068199, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706924068831, "lastBetTime": 1706924062170, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "He ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tweeted", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/BasedBeffJezos/status/1732168973830238495", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "with an opponent that has some technical background and actual skin in the game (e.g. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "@NPCollapse", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/NPCollapse", "class": "css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3 r-1ny4l3l r-1ddef8g r-tjvw6i r-1loqt21", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/jacksonpolack/ad10e11cb46a.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=TiWZAy3GjSTOekGmEIoamk0snUhCqKr9CXamhr9fu0wpfbFW1%2F5ctgGDCB7zrSaeHlN6RWYOn7Tx6jok5sTonQV%2B%2FvUxyg2ibxySQB3WEdbQVnmTEhzlpJ6S%2FPV1q%2BWTg6aHsz8OH3GtP8eF29i6kyxI2ZqLRjEanMt3Q3tj5WpitSiCMGG67Oas48rmaP7O%2FaRFVOjniB6P6LRU0buYTkDXspfsc3z%2FzAxqCivJOhj%2Bv3Cc5l3lOpO%2Fn4mZGJytys1xJjrTgaWkA3X03mbDMEOSkOU5irGPO4%2FP8j85BtPWAzAZEdQntsP19MT5LYlcnS%2BhlB8li84OQd9evxnKyQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["ai-safety", "ai", "ai-risk"], "textDescription": "He tweeted:\n\nwith an opponent that has some technical background and actual skin in the game (e.g. @NPCollapse"}, {"id": "7FJlnLNXStZvGqTiExLE", "creatorId": "5tRRokoRHXdoiblRaEE6HDguhgB3", "creatorUsername": "RobinGreen", "creatorName": "Robin Green", "createdTime": 1700785329043, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5E-q_bZ3CRRdAyvsBKzjKhaVimPpY3ue3d3lKmaA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will the OpenAI Board contractually require Sam Altman to refrain from poaching if he leaves OpenAI again?", "slug": "will-the-openai-board-contractually", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RobinGreen/will-the-openai-board-contractually", "pool": {"NO": 101.53436755466942, "YES": 118.79799591540069}, "probability": 0.46821742300711056, "p": 0.5074307655582875, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34.56641163825856, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705869081751, "resolutionProbability": 0.47, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705869081950, "lastBetTime": 1700926826400, "lastCommentTime": 1705869078091, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Poaching\" means attempting to recruit OpenAI employees to a new employer. This is what Altman tried to do with Microsoft - Microsoft made an open offer to OpenAI employees to hire them all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the OpenAI board write Sam a new employment contract that prohibits him from doing that again, within a certain period of time after leaving OpenAI again, either due to being fired or resigning?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["california", "openai", "openai-crisis", "sam-altman", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "\"Poaching\" means attempting to recruit OpenAI employees to a new employer. This is what Altman tried to do with Microsoft - Microsoft made an open offer to OpenAI employees to hire them all.\n\nWill the OpenAI board write Sam a new employment contract that prohibits him from doing that again, within a certain period of time after leaving OpenAI again, either due to being fired or resigning?"}, {"id": "o8KKiL6z9c1zvDm5QKsz", "creatorId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "creatorUsername": "AmmonLam", "creatorName": "Ammon Lam", "createdTime": 1672205180797, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3tZQ3FxKg9rh6V8N0P2Lax5R_TfROJtQmrapTp=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Google Chrome remain the most popular browser by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-google-chrome-remain-the-most", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-google-chrome-remain-the-most", "pool": {"NO": 3003.749664877027, "YES": 389.1971055876975}, "probability": 0.984745150651319, "p": 0.8932097373418336, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3219.123140888693, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704086752882, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "hRbPwezgxnat6GpJQxoFxq1xgUZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704086753231, "lastBetTime": 1704069667159, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to the \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Usage share of all browsers\" ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "table in this wikipedia entry:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhDyL_OYCgC.png?alt=media&token=83d2ee62-345e-43fa-aab4-3a9229ea80e2", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolution according to the \"Usage share of all browsers\" table in this wikipedia entry:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers\n\n"}, {"id": "gu73eHoUC0dACJSG9ji0", "creatorId": "Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682", "creatorUsername": "pea", "creatorName": "pea", "createdTime": 1692277178801, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fpea%2Fars5TkbLMX.jpeg?alt=media&token=776ffe6e-5d47-479b-9a88-6960dc109946", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Manifold Markets be integrated into Twitter by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-markets-be-integrated", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pea/will-manifold-markets-be-integrated", "pool": {"NO": 455.8385911427765, "YES": 900.0895981224877}, "probability": 0.042726706876995535, "p": 0.08099462228286149, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 730.2258884783178, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704118628837, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "Xc9yZ09GifgOWHJnlrVi1WpIX682", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704118629266, "lastBetTime": 1703640641089, "lastCommentTime": 1692320948123, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "i've seen some buzz about it. let's bet on it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold Markets is integrated into Twitter at any point before 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Manifold Markets is NOT integrated into Twitter by 12:00 AM EST Jan 1, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For now, the definition for \"Twitter integration of Manifold Markets\":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MM users must be able to create new questions, place bets, and see embedded prediction markets in tweets.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This definition I've come up with is open to change. I don't know what kind of hard criteria we'd collectively want for the definition, but I figure those three elements are sufficient or possibly too strict. Let me know if you think it should change!", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "manifold-6748e065087e", "fun", "ai", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "i've seen some buzz about it. let's bet on it.\n\nResolves YES if\n\nManifold Markets is integrated into Twitter at any point before 2024\n\nResolves NO if\n\nManifold Markets is NOT integrated into Twitter by 12:00 AM EST Jan 1, 2024\n\nFor now, the definition for \"Twitter integration of Manifold Markets\":\n\nMM users must be able to create new questions, place bets, and see embedded prediction markets in tweets.\n\nThis definition I've come up with is open to change. I don't know what kind of hard criteria we'd collectively want for the definition, but I figure those three elements are sufficient or possibly too strict. Let me know if you think it should change!"}, {"id": "RAIzRW8BL6Mbkv6oXYCo", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1655574156322, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1687751940000, "question": "Will Scott Aaronson be at least as optimistic about AI alignment next year?", "slug": "will-scott-aaronson-be-at-least-as", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-scott-aaronson-be-at-least-as", "pool": {"NO": 1166.0342234035113, "YES": 128.72206476267573}, "probability": 0.9200000000000004, "p": 0.5593781907577138, "totalLiquidity": 360, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1261.525025057178, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688392013992, "resolutionProbability": 0.92, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688392012788, "lastBetTime": 1687733854500, "lastCommentTime": 1688392008118, "description": "Scott Aaronson just announced that he's working at OpenAI for the next year: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6484. In this post he also says \"just as Eliezer became more and more pessimistic about the prospects for getting anywhere on AI alignment, I\u2019ve become more and more optimistic\".\n\nResolves YES if based on Scott Aaronson's blog posts or other statements after about 1 year, he generally is at least as optimistic about AI alignment as he is today; NO if he's less optimistic.", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default"], "textDescription": "Scott Aaronson just announced that he's working at OpenAI for the next year: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6484. In this post he also says \"just as Eliezer became more and more pessimistic about the prospects for getting anywhere on AI alignment, I\u2019ve become more and more optimistic\".\n\nResolves YES if based on Scott Aaronson's blog posts or other statements after about 1 year, he generally is at least as optimistic about AI alignment as he is today; NO if he's less optimistic."}, {"id": "8lykGqpSX4QY4AgVwsMV", "creatorId": "H6b5PWELWfRV6HhyHAlCGq7yJJu2", "creatorUsername": "AndrewG", "creatorName": "Andrew G", "createdTime": 1668179296748, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiaKzvDVGOvUXFxGChB6G4D9spo8N6MGUqFjIRTqAk=s96-c", "closeTime": 1670383898606, "question": "Conditional on Democrats winning the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, will a Democrat win the Georgia Senate race?", "slug": "conditional-on-democrats-winning-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/conditional-on-democrats-winning-th", "pool": {"NO": 18993.135610815752, "YES": 121.26693835594945}, "probability": 0.9984277592385149, "p": 0.8021586994752462, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22246.436411841903, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1670383898606, "resolutionProbability": 0.9984277592385149, "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670383758497, "lastBetTime": 1670383758295, "lastCommentTime": 1668374710327, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nov 11, 10:08am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Conditional on Democrats winning the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, will the win the Georgia Senate race?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Conditional on Democrats winning the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, will a Democrat win the Georgia Senate race?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fg2oFv_s5Bj.png?alt=media&token=5c936925-bb5f-4be7-a02b-eb4e2a9334df", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "us-2022-midterms", "politics-default", "us-2022-elections", "2022-georgia-runoffs"], "textDescription": "Nov 11, 10:08am: Conditional on Democrats winning the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, will the win the Georgia Senate race? \u2192 Conditional on Democrats winning the Arizona and Nevada Senate races, will a Democrat win the Georgia Senate race?"}, {"id": "VSqNbinGeqAsE19EdbxV", "creatorId": "d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2", "creatorUsername": "lazy", "creatorName": "lazy", "createdTime": 1710603524270, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Flazy%2Fn-cJ25i5Lx.jpeg?alt=media&token=8f0ceef3-6a34-4708-87c5-5e0e1e87c2d7", "closeTime": 1710855000000, "question": "Is Lucci KO'd, or will the fight still continue in Chapter 1111?", "slug": "is-lucci-kod-or-will-the-fight-stil", "url": "https://manifold.markets/lazy/is-lucci-kod-or-will-the-fight-stil", "pool": {"NO": 781.275172573049, "YES": 177.58943646698557}, "probability": 0.9142575291153634, "p": 0.7079215684645604, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 628.8183957436735, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711012618130, "resolutionProbability": 0.91, "resolverId": "d9FHkgSum6VtJACCnZXoH6AbOlZ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710855000000, "lastBetTime": 1710853274097, "lastCommentTime": 1710865423287, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Choose Yes if Lucci is out of the game or isn't even shown in ch 1111.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Choose No if Lucci is still standing up and continues to fight in ch 1111.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will be closed when the spoilers are out.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["one-piece-stocks"], "textDescription": "Choose Yes if Lucci is out of the game or isn't even shown in ch 1111.\nChoose No if Lucci is still standing up and continues to fight in ch 1111.\n\nWill be closed when the spoilers are out."}, {"id": "fJ1Xd8EiOXtIqDlLOpk3", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1697504684913, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1697583600000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 17 than it closed on October 16?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-17", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-17", "pool": {"NO": 118.61323343928385, "YES": 971.2327655656286}, "probability": 0.030592979288791938, "p": 0.20534510522492422, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1107.0358162613445, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697587718641, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697587710107, "lastBetTime": 1697583450074, "lastCommentTime": 1697587709417, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.4983", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "664b226d-2e39-4051-8906-47e2a3b61668", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 15 than it closed on October 14?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.4983\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "JykSeEap5nNif9sXit8A", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703081739083, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703718000000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on December 27 than it closed on December 26?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-d642f3480929", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-december-2-d642f3480929", "pool": {"NO": 66.11514376178853, "YES": 413.8374569180669}, "probability": 0.14000000000000012, "p": 0.5046962342761605, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 423.40935526680204, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703734657788, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703734658131, "lastBetTime": 1703717976613, "lastCommentTime": 1703734651176, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F2d94d556301b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "uDz4De60HfWhpmSWpg2v", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691206537687, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1691449200000, "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher August 7th Than August 6th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-dfb0f8c2e831", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-dfb0f8c2e831", "pool": {"NO": 2301.3290321588165, "YES": 115.61372246748137}, "probability": 0.9941182581186326, "p": 0.8946378744755679, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4368.858610520876, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691454321453, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691454318756, "lastBetTime": 1691448507873, "lastCommentTime": 1691454316447, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 6th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fa9OYFGpddx.png?alt=media&token=8894536d-a62b-4c9b-8b9f-981635bc5ee4", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "crypto-prices", "finance"], "textDescription": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nAugust 6th Close Value: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "IXXM6qlOpUkIy29yIwFE", "creatorId": "FdQaiiM99mP3pA4RjeRFINCYIy92", "creatorUsername": "charlie", "creatorName": "charlie", "createdTime": 1644683955425, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghn32hoG8nE0PeBsfEEDBa6PCFM4wMEnnCpaevU=s96-c", "closeTime": 1648796340000, "question": "Will Manifold Markets do something for April Fool's day?", "slug": "will-manifold-markets-do-something", "url": "https://manifold.markets/charlie/will-manifold-markets-do-something", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.5583358230757441, "p": 0.5583358230757441, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1023.1128308715805, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1648849849875, "resolutionProbability": 0.5583358230757441, "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1644683955425, "lastCommentTime": 1648785444435, "description": "This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets does something on their website in an official capacity on 4/1/22 which is (in my judgement) clearly intended as an observance of April Fool's day.\n\nMerely posting a market which refers to April Fool's (e.g. \"will a major news station accidentally report on an April Fool's prank under the impression that it's real?\") does not count. Posting a market which is itself intended as a prank (e.g. \"will the U.N. succeed in diplomatic negotiations with the aliens who just landed?\") does.\n\nThe observance must be on the website itself, not (e.g.) on Discord.", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "This market resolves to YES if Manifold Markets does something on their website in an official capacity on 4/1/22 which is (in my judgement) clearly intended as an observance of April Fool's day.\n\nMerely posting a market which refers to April Fool's (e.g. \"will a major news station accidentally report on an April Fool's prank under the impression that it's real?\") does not count. Posting a market which is itself intended as a prank (e.g. \"will the U.N. succeed in diplomatic negotiations with the aliens who just landed?\") does.\n\nThe observance must be on the website itself, not (e.g.) on Discord."}, {"id": "WmtyU4AYwl3Kf7zt7Lez", "creatorId": "J611lCgdyQdv306O7QPCWtAL0Gc2", "creatorUsername": "SteveSokolowski", "creatorName": "Steve Sokolowski", "createdTime": 1701195552554, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtc1UM2wtQThBuAPyurW8TD4Y7ydKGRN-eB7Xv8txFEH_g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1701688073997, "question": "Will adding an Attention layer improve the performance of my stock trading model?", "slug": "will-adding-an-attention-layer-impr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-adding-an-attention-layer-impr", "pool": {"NO": 544.8010000539607, "YES": 513.2426891599787}, "probability": 0.5939938178049728, "p": 0.5795262106421197, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 646.5821897048309, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701688073997, "resolutionProbability": 0.59, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456875562, "lastBetTime": 1701631452246, "lastCommentTime": 1701973487502, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let's see if Manifold users can accurately predict how AI models should be trained to save electricity.  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I have been writing a 55M parameter stock and cryptocurrency trading model.   A test model with only 4M parameters was trained and is already useful in trading.  Now, I bought more graphics cards to make use of all the data I have.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The large model is to be trained on 120 million sequences of bars of OHLCV data (about 5TB), with an additional sixth feature (\"imputed\"), which is 1 if a bar is missing from the data or is an outlier; 0 otherwise.  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The number of bars in each sequence is greater than 1000, and the candle time is five minutes or greater.  The output is the predicted price several bars in the future.  Standard techniques like scaling and Dropout are used.  I won't reveal what is at the beginning of the model.  Here is the middle and end:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Secret layers at the beginning of the model", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Several LSTM layers", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The proposed code (or not):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "x = LayerNormalization()(x)\nx = Attention()([x, x])\nx = LayerNormalization()(x)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One more LSTM layer", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Multiple Dense layers", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will train each model for one epoch - about 144 hours total - on three 4090 graphics cards.  One run will include the model without the code in black, and the second will include it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the model with this code has a lower Huber loss function than the model without it, this market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".  If an error occurs during training that cannot be resolved without significantly changing the model architecture, or if training is unable to be completed due to a physical problem like a card failure, the market will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "N/A", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".  Otherwise, it will resolve to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai", "crypto-speculation", "stocks", "computing", "computer-science", "trading-bots", "development"], "textDescription": "Let's see if Manifold users can accurately predict how AI models should be trained to save electricity.  \n\nI have been writing a 55M parameter stock and cryptocurrency trading model.   A test model with only 4M parameters was trained and is already useful in trading.  Now, I bought more graphics cards to make use of all the data I have.\n\nThe large model is to be trained on 120 million sequences of bars of OHLCV data (about 5TB), with an additional sixth feature (\"imputed\"), which is 1 if a bar is missing from the data or is an outlier; 0 otherwise.  \n\nThe number of bars in each sequence is greater than 1000, and the candle time is five minutes or greater.  The output is the predicted price several bars in the future.  Standard techniques like scaling and Dropout are used.  I won't reveal what is at the beginning of the model.  Here is the middle and end:\n\nSecret layers at the beginning of the model\n\nSeveral LSTM layers\n\nThe proposed code (or not):\n\nx = LayerNormalization()(x)\nx = Attention()([x, x])\nx = LayerNormalization()(x)\n\nOne more LSTM layer\n\nMultiple Dense layers\n\nI will train each model for one epoch - about 144 hours total - on three 4090 graphics cards.  One run will include the model without the code in black, and the second will include it.\n\nIf the model with this code has a lower Huber loss function than the model without it, this market will resolve to YES.  If an error occurs during training that cannot be resolved without significantly changing the model architecture, or if training is unable to be completed due to a physical problem like a card failure, the market will resolve to N/A.  Otherwise, it will resolve to NO."}, {"id": "8ArTPWfNUINY4LydLZgO", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1675028813590, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680299940000, "question": "Will George Santos remain in Congress through March 31?", "slug": "will-george-santos-remain-in-congre", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-george-santos-remain-in-congre", "pool": {"NO": 3050.1209355257456, "YES": 238.30547286842534}, "probability": 0.9836282197146775, "p": 0.8243795183795796, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4887.242393459324, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680345325635, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680336511477, "lastBetTime": 1680295976672, "lastCommentTime": 1680336484370, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if George Santos is the Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 3rd district without interruption from January 27 through March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If George Santos ceases to be a member of Congress before this market's end date, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2Bueszah88.png?alt=media&token=d74cc0a3-d6e8-40aa-b851-5004acc7f893", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by George Santos or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "real money market: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["polymarket"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if George Santos is the Member of the U.S. House of Representatives from New York's 3rd district without interruption from January 27 through March 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf George Santos ceases to be a member of Congress before this market's end date, this market will immediately resolve to \"No\".\n\n[image]The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by George Santos or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.\n\n---\n\nreal money market: https://polymarket.com/event/will-george-santos-remain-in-congress-through-march-31"}, {"id": "KI0e7GZzj6q7rDofi5WT", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1697407123297, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1697929837961, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will Wisconsin beat Illinois?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-beat-ill", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-wisconsin-beat-ill", "pool": {"NO": 6729.358436979377, "YES": 28.39952562286503}, "probability": 0.9968725237339986, "p": 0.573594977070754, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8463.961686724746, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697929837961, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697929811761, "lastBetTime": 1697929811631, "lastCommentTime": 1697408535728, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-10-21 at 3:30 PM ET in Champaign, IL. Line: Illinois +5.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdKDqd1aIir.png?alt=media&token=d9ece2a5-9b57-463f-a57f-8e0fe0bca71b", "groupSlugs": ["football", "college-football", "sports-default", "big-ten"], "textDescription": "2023-10-21 at 3:30 PM ET in Champaign, IL. Line: Illinois +5."}, {"id": "S56RNlwQSo6nF4mbxhDb", "creatorId": "Scigu3xyl1gT12kdEJ1rgUvVBXH2", "creatorUsername": "pakoito", "creatorName": "Pacc", "createdTime": 1649372053326, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fpakoito%2Favatar_gief.png?alt=media&token=5771666c-cde2-4352-b266-0a377ab634a1", "closeTime": 1672488701292, "question": "Will Nintendo announce a new console by the end of 2022?", "slug": "will-nintendo-announce-a-new-consol", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pakoito/will-nintendo-announce-a-new-consol", "pool": {"NO": 115.58801352945615, "YES": 2263.7648524572005}, "probability": 0.011905301495576335, "p": 0.1909201357705068, "totalLiquidity": 243.15994914100455, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2658.1777235805944, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672488701292, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672489488475, "lastBetTime": 1672125517996, "lastCommentTime": 1672489484892, "description": "This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements.", "groupSlugs": ["nintendo"], "textDescription": "This market resolves to YES if Nintendo announces publicly and officially a new console to succeed the current one, Nintendo Switch. The market resolves to NO if a new revision of Nintendo Switch is announced, or if there are no console announcements."}, {"id": "eMn81m3FBdkxg3jnYiM5", "creatorId": "OPBtogfMc4XqtIltNzSGck6y3Cx1", "creatorUsername": "JonathanMann", "creatorName": "Jonathan Mann", "createdTime": 1689963932920, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGqet__ZxQQEFkGGhvNQAdMw9j0AMIeJOQr6uE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694750340000, "question": "Will the US existing home median sales price be higher than $400,000 USD for August 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-86e183ba4301", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-86e183ba4301", "pool": {"NO": 415.9979562401523, "YES": 108.16611230436092}, "probability": 0.8700000000000006, "p": 0.6350507319402915, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 447.6288741429711, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695654645452, "resolutionProbability": 0.87, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695392049005, "lastBetTime": 1694748554961, "lastCommentTime": 1695392047380, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve based on August 2023 data from ycharts (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") when it becomes available (probably around September 20th).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["real-estate"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve based on August 2023 data from ycharts (https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) when it becomes available (probably around September 20th)."}, {"id": "4JGPKXEWnDWTtEWUEHyH", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1668594716104, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-any-nato-member-country-invoke-a67e0d85f40a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-any-nato-member-country-invoke-a67e0d85f40a", "pool": {"NO": 525.0826391052692, "YES": 3636.3185157172816}, "probability": 0.037912823896704355, "p": 0.21439327488146656, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6492.619774560406, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704210085489, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704210085732, "lastBetTime": 1703759445416, "lastCommentTime": 1704210080273, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: \"The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.\" There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 15, 2022, and December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to \"Yes\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nato.int", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nato.int", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "market for 2022:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "IB6RzVSMxcH9IdCkQbuY,YMJCNt4UteTT0eL80JzO"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQWjCh1DFps.png?alt=media&token=1a4a35d3-dfb1-4cca-9dcc-93cf83342964", "groupSlugs": ["poland", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: \"The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.\" There are 30 member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), established by the North Atlantic Treaty, the full list of which can be found here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm \n\nIf any NATO member country invokes Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 15, 2022, and December 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET (inclusive), this market will resolve to \"Yes\". \n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.\n\n\nmarket for 2022:\n\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "yqFXqkxJe0ou8uycfgBk", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703412202319, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703672400000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-27 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a1b20759afdf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-a1b20759afdf", "pool": {"NO": 68.79795915720655, "YES": 74.99999999999997}, "probability": 0.1846906052420257, "p": 0.19804287268300017, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703709885257, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703709885497, "lastBetTime": 1703670027928, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-27 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-27 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=27", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=27", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F066946be596e.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-27 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-27 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "TQ2Ef3dIJUsF0WcYjQPg", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702906503364, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1703067600000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-20 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-cc2553ab367f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-cc2553ab367f", "pool": {"NO": 88.90194284529194, "YES": 94.99999999999994}, "probability": 0.1739180923019796, "p": 0.1836567213342497, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703167894288, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703024886916, "lastBetTime": 1703024886743, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-20 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-20 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=20", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=20", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F77b2863be39a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-20 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-20 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "qs7SHbbmiEGOVB5RP8Bo", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424732600, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708702500000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-23 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-dfdf633a158f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-dfdf633a158f", "pool": {"NO": 111.75546950832326, "YES": 96.54764432105095}, "probability": 0.1387839806417861, "p": 0.1222060527598532, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 38, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708769409981, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708769410340, "lastBetTime": 1708699767239, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-23 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=23", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fba1e927f99c0.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-23 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-23 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "HjXtJVUnYX5IvM7ey8DF", "creatorId": "OPBtogfMc4XqtIltNzSGck6y3Cx1", "creatorUsername": "JonathanMann", "creatorName": "Jonathan Mann", "createdTime": 1692811676643, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGqet__ZxQQEFkGGhvNQAdMw9j0AMIeJOQr6uE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1700110740000, "question": "Will the US existing home median sales price be at least $387,000 USD for October 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-a8034cefc834", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/will-the-us-existing-home-median-sa-a8034cefc834", "pool": {"NO": 200.84964211183546, "YES": 77.12154521813173}, "probability": 0.8800000000000001, "p": 0.7379336641102131, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 256.39369204243565, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700915708361, "resolutionProbability": 0.88, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700098555943, "lastBetTime": 1700098555691, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve based on October 2023 data from ycharts (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ") when it becomes available (probably around November 20th). If the results are not available from the specified source by December 10th, 2023, this question will resolve as N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["real-estate"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve based on October 2023 data from ycharts (https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_median_sales_price) when it becomes available (probably around November 20th). If the results are not available from the specified source by December 10th, 2023, this question will resolve as N/A."}, {"id": "Y5RM3nPNGX2snTkxyZn9", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702218834901, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702277100000, "question": "Will Flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2023-12-11 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w", "pool": {"NO": 69.79596512909184, "YES": 73.00000000000003}, "probability": 0.06185480989412447, "p": 0.0645111215154164, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702293041247, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702221958831, "lastBetTime": 1702221958706, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-11 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-11 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2023&month=12&date=11", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-11 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-11 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior."}, {"id": "5nyQFn5CokrBX36wPSDG", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1699222294202, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1699858740000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will the AP top five teams for Week 11 maintain their rankings for Week 12?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-the-ap-top-five-te-bc2989b3eba9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-the-ap-top-five-te-bc2989b3eba9", "pool": {"NO": 1786.055276201635, "YES": 13.609634910016325}, "probability": 0.9921988544627578, "p": 0.49216720063608155, "totalLiquidity": 175, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2407.688436139363, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699859198106, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699816344329, "lastBetTime": 1699816344199, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\t\tTeam\t\t\t\t\t(W-L)\tpoints", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Georgia\t\t\t\t(9-0)\t1558\t\t", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 2}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Michigan\t\t\t(9-0)\t1485", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ohio State\t\t(9-0)\t1453", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Florida State\t(9-0)\t1411", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Washington\t\t(9-0)\t1333", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 6}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oregon\t\t\t\t(8-1)\t1240", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Texas\t\t\t\t\t(8-1)\t1190", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Alabama\t\t\t(8-1)\t1143", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Penn State\t\t(8-1)\t1075", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ole Miss\t\t\t(8-1)\t1027", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top Five game markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zNgss8wJqLugSy4yCZZP", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ole-miss-defeat-ge"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "ZGGnCkR4Wxl0Jc06zMZR", "label": "/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-2-michigan-beat-9"}}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "rMilSg9HFCWqEyX78Ocj", "label": "/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-michigan-state-bea-4e825dd89af6"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Pd2Sdbmy6USpMzAkdO6f", "label": "/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-miami-beat-4-flori"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "TFamBeaNceYwWtyyxzwS", "label": "/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-washin"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["college-football", "football", "sports-default"], "textDescription": "\t\tTeam\t\t\t\t\t(W-L)\tpoints\n\nGeorgia\t\t\t\t(9-0)\t1558\t\t\n\nMichigan\t\t\t(9-0)\t1485\n\nOhio State\t\t(9-0)\t1453\n\nFlorida State\t(9-0)\t1411\n\nWashington\t\t(9-0)\t1333\n\nOregon\t\t\t\t(8-1)\t1240\n\nTexas\t\t\t\t\t(8-1)\t1190\n\nAlabama\t\t\t(8-1)\t1143\n\nPenn State\t\t(8-1)\t1075\n\nOle Miss\t\t\t(8-1)\t1027\n\nTop Five game markets:\n\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-ole-miss-defeat-ge \n\n@/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-2-michigan-beat-9@/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-michigan-state-bea-4e825dd89af6 \n\n@/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-miami-beat-4-flori \n\n@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-washin "}, {"id": "WqapmkDtxt445ZOyWLqx", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1708125424864, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1708718400000, "question": "Will Tesla close higher than 199.95 on February 23?", "slug": "will-tesla-close-higher-than-19995", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-tesla-close-higher-than-19995", "pool": {"NO": 135.93908406486534, "YES": 1435.045077511372}, "probability": 0.020206577230380406, "p": 0.17878676939613217, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1527.3707738345993, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708726415019, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451929835, "lastBetTime": 1708716428050, "lastCommentTime": 1708726410095, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tesla Inc", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Close Price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=TSLA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "TSLA closes at 4pm EST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 3pm EST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes higher than 199.95.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " if stock closes lower.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "50% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "if stock closes flat.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F4b0e6649b0a3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "entertainment", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "tesla", "keen-stocks", "stocks-league-beta"], "textDescription": "Tesla Inc\n\nResolves according to Google Close Price\n\nTSLA closes at 4pm EST\n\nThis market closes at 3pm EST\n\nResolves YES if stock closes higher than 199.95.\n\nResolves NO if stock closes lower.\n\nResolves 50% if stock closes flat.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "kUx4d7j9aM6uz2EpJ0J9", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1700854845036, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1701100800000, "question": "Will Deutsche Telekom close higher november 27th than the close of november 24th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-def02e0714e1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-def02e0714e1", "pool": {"NO": 771.2930608630666, "YES": 76.70981306974554}, "probability": 0.9692300207531545, "p": 0.7580326544706593, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1100.7740348836587, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701105370266, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222354095, "lastBetTime": 1701099328269, "lastCommentTime": 1701105366316, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FWdcfjRIQPo.png?alt=media&token=34a2104e-b110-4baa-b301-26f9871eb842", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "ERtevVbebt1wtlX6cUny", "creatorId": "ZfMgGcDtoqd55a67jVkQtaPKa3W2", "creatorUsername": "DaveTrash", "creatorName": "Dave H", "createdTime": 1700915996547, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIvjmI4g019mmVaupwrMYugN7vByGH85HB43dANx2g5=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710422784630, "question": "Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the first quarter of 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau", "pool": {"NO": 3456.6122558464117, "YES": 556.6295114107157}, "probability": 0.9555169481248929, "p": 0.7757380025974154, "totalLiquidity": 910, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9166.47492976889, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710422784630, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "ZfMgGcDtoqd55a67jVkQtaPKa3W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710422785803, "lastBetTime": 1710420476509, "lastCommentTime": 1710102360736, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this question a lunch is defined as both the Booster and the Starship making it to an altitude of at least 1,000 m.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-81f8b0bce083", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-193f75e1a3b4", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-4e4ecf6fce6e", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le-43ad6d8ef596", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["spacex", "space", "starship-launch-party"], "textDescription": "For the purposes of this question a lunch is defined as both the Booster and the Starship making it to an altitude of at least 1,000 m.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-81f8b0bce083) \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-193f75e1a3b4) \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-4e4ecf6fce6e) \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le) \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le-43ad6d8ef596)"}, {"id": "bDhpJiQVUs32xHxt6VwM", "creatorId": "WKmdSlf09ddgmU6cNCRc0vBEi8g2", "creatorUsername": "TobyBW", "creatorName": "TobyBW", "createdTime": 1683658075336, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbfAluDnzEDRmFF_cP3ylsY0acz4tQnmH__kgPBqA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1684083925054, "question": "Will anyone earn \u1e401,000,000 (1 million mana) profit by the end of June 2023?", "slug": "will-anyone-earn-m1000000-1-million-4b6e813b3e45", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TobyBW/will-anyone-earn-m1000000-1-million-4b6e813b3e45", "pool": {"NO": 2410.196660406355, "YES": 278.98339283395416}, "probability": 0.97, "p": 0.7891463201041297, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21093.192341225167, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684083925054, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684087302345, "lastBetTime": 1684083879388, "lastCommentTime": 1684087298816, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to YES if the top trader at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " All Time has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of June 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of market creation, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "kydVkcfg7TU4zrrMBRx1Csipwkw2", "label": "Catnee"}}, {"text": " is in the lead with \u1e40958,848 profit.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clone with shorter time period of this market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-anyone-earn-m1000000-1-million", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FrHcKOOn-Cs.png?alt=media&token=b23b5282-2629-454f-a7aa-35c14722dccc", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "keeping-score"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to YES if the top trader at https://manifold.markets/leaderboards All Time has 1,000,000 mana in profit before the end of June 2023.\n\nAs of market creation, @Catnee is in the lead with \u1e40958,848 profit.\n\nClone with shorter time period of this market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-anyone-earn-m1000000-1-million)"}, {"id": "qIZ6DpHyZRChNbzMV8NI", "creatorId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "creatorUsername": "Orca", "creatorName": "Orcatron", "createdTime": 1702627368856, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703457900000, "question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 16: Will the Arizona Cardinals win their NFL Game against the Chicago Bears on 12/24?", "slug": "nfl-week-16-will-the-arizona-cardin", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-16-will-the-arizona-cardin", "pool": {"NO": 85.33193837555169, "YES": 582.2727875999752}, "probability": 0.08000000000000008, "p": 0.37239478265467224, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1043.3489365670582, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703464113952, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206776587, "lastBetTime": 1703457246701, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "So this market will close on 12/24 @ 2:45 PM PACIFIC TIME.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orca%2F22b2393e1d53.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["football", "nfl", "chicago-bears", "arizona-cardinals"], "textDescription": "I am doing some experimentation on how to setup this market correctly. Feedback is appreciated.\n\nI am going to close this market ~ an hour after the KICKOFF TIME, Will resolve it after the Game Closes. I am doing this to prevent market trading based on actual events in the later part of the game. Let me know what you think.\n\nSo this market will close on 12/24 @ 2:45 PM PACIFIC TIME."}, {"id": "1U67ud8u1m969zZi9zfD", "creatorId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "creatorUsername": "MP", "creatorName": "MP", "createdTime": 1674427687608, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf", "closeTime": 1700436409057, "question": "Will a self-identified Peronist win the 2023 Argentina presidential election?", "slug": "will-a-selfidentified-peronist-win", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-selfidentified-peronist-win", "pool": {"NO": 153.4044381561207, "YES": 9007.21328254032}, "probability": 0.012860765316508803, "p": 0.43341616297009145, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 19493.22449707654, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700436409057, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 74, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700436267688, "lastBetTime": 1700436267565, "lastCommentTime": 1700436032413, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a self-described peronist by the mainstream media wins the elections, which includes Kirchner, Fernandez, Massa, and so on, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FY293yv3MK_.png?alt=media&token=f42a196f-68ae-4118-b6c4-73c009d0a3b8", "groupSlugs": ["argentina", "world-default", "2023-argentina-election", "latin-america"], "textDescription": "If a self-described peronist by the mainstream media wins the elections, which includes Kirchner, Fernandez, Massa, and so on, this market resolves to YES."}, {"id": "DG4pAzizxSCChHPFfXy8", "creatorId": "0wf1BQ6TTyfokIkCZDOBVZEQcU43", "creatorUsername": "Valjean", "creatorName": "Valjean", "createdTime": 1692715521465, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FValjean%2Fe9tX64r6JO.jpg?alt=media&token=10927667-13fd-4e30-87b2-1a461e186248", "closeTime": 1709910618858, "question": "Will Biden say \"finish the job\" at least 10 times during the 2024 State of the Union?", "slug": "will-biden-say-finish-the-job-at-le", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Valjean/will-biden-say-finish-the-job-at-le", "pool": {"NO": 85.7730968683336, "YES": 3021.0717646247294}, "probability": 0.012657314425274483, "p": 0.311070283443774, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3158.011051467175, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709910635285, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "0wf1BQ6TTyfokIkCZDOBVZEQcU43", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709910635564, "lastBetTime": 1709892265499, "lastCommentTime": 1709892380096, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A if he does not do a 2024 SOTU.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I moved the date of resolution back, to the day after the State of the Union. If you were counting on the resolution date being the original one, let me know and I will send you mana.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election", "politics-default", "us-politics", "the-life-of-biden"], "textDescription": "Resolves N/A if he does not do a 2024 SOTU.\n\nI moved the date of resolution back, to the day after the State of the Union. If you were counting on the resolution date being the original one, let me know and I will send you mana."}, {"id": "aH3CZrRivAowqCsh9sxf", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1698773749722, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1698854400000, "question": "Will Deutsche Telekom close higher november 1th than the close of october 31th?", "slug": "will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-8757372150f0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-deutsche-telekom-close-higher-8757372150f0", "pool": {"NO": 1242.7140629950356, "YES": 158.5469841114532}, "probability": 0.9760825570309888, "p": 0.8388825488250812, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1317.9201850262075, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698860188700, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698860183861, "lastBetTime": 1698854382755, "lastCommentTime": 1698860183062, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJokxE0XEqY.png?alt=media&token=6eb60df4-24c1-4c3f-810a-c87fbece9684", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Seems there was a visual error on tuesday. Some sites say it went up, some it went down. Googles last number is 20.43 Euro (last update on the right site).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Seems there was a visual error on tuesday. Some sites say it went up, some it went down. Googles last number is 20.43 Euro (last update on the right site).\n\nResolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DTE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "gDvsOS1V3MeqzpIHMg7I", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704396247952, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704583200000, "question": "Will flight DL 224 from Boston to Paris departing on 2024-01-07 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-9ecd6bf29516", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-dl-224-from-boston-to-p-9ecd6bf29516", "pool": {"NO": 50, "YES": 50}, "probability": 0.06557377049180327, "p": 0.06557377049180328, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 0, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704705161543, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 0, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704705161755, "lastBetTime": 1704396253308, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-06 23:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 01:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 07:10", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2024&month=01&date=07", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/DL/224?year=2024&month=01&date=07", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/dl224", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fe92f97cc43b3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Delta Air Lines DL 224 from Boston (BOS) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-06 23:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-07 - 01:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a017:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a020:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a002:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 07:10\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "lOlQu7dq4OaD8CY2fS6K", "creatorId": "Hz3F4HZScwTg2RKhM1WeJ9zjEPq1", "creatorUsername": "TimP", "creatorName": "Tim P", "createdTime": 1657068777654, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxMqsZzJuxerPf1d5mbi2erJaCZRbGgt7H8s45S=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672579617552, "question": "Will NATO expand in 2022?", "slug": "will-nato-expand-in-2022", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TimP/will-nato-expand-in-2022", "pool": {"NO": 23.108292560114933, "YES": 11127.514665783825}, "probability": 0.0009159039668905473, "p": 0.3062525004395537, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11689.224412481368, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672579617552, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672579422165, "lastBetTime": 1672579422059, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a market on whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have more than 30 full member states for any length of time before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET. If NATO announces it has more than 30 member states at any point before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve as \u201cYes\u201d. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\" The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "This is a market on whether the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will have more than 30 full member states for any length of time before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET. If NATO announces it has more than 30 member states at any point before January 1, 2023, this market will resolve as \u201cYes\u201d. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No.\" The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "XEYKh5UOY5rVrBfOTcPQ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1708424688744, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708596900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-22 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-b9bf00d0024e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-b9bf00d0024e", "pool": {"NO": 67.7099665966853, "YES": 80}, "probability": 0.16976019925956362, "p": 0.1945778079027381, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708634999219, "resolutionProbability": 0.17, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708634999447, "lastBetTime": 1708443862818, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-22 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-22 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=02&date=22", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff52abb31ff93.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-22 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-22 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "X0zJayKnX3r7Y7keWxpy", "creatorId": "NYtyp6tILJTMnkEZrVoSxDPHkyy1", "creatorUsername": "AlborTholus", "creatorName": "Albor Tholus", "createdTime": 1678186853498, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxaWfem6DVooDFjX5cQ-mYLh6VouK_VIvlZXJBe2Aw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678806973894, "question": "Will Meta layoff thousands in the next 10 days (before 2023-03-18)", "slug": "will-meta-layoff-thousands-in-the-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AlborTholus/will-meta-layoff-thousands-in-the-n", "pool": {"NO": 492.6705851759083, "YES": 995.8260121256923}, "probability": 0.38413914250645703, "p": 0.557671082747066, "totalLiquidity": 760, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3977.671676926591, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1679186996110, "resolutionProbability": 0.38, "uniqueBettorCount": 30, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679243428492, "lastBetTime": 1678805461812, "lastCommentTime": 1679243424689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are rumors this can happen: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-07/meta-platforms-is-said-to-plan-thousands-more-layoffs", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-07/meta-platforms-is-said-to-plan-thousands-more-layoffs", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  >=2000 Meta's full time employees gets laid off", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  before 2023-03-18", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  it will be publicly announced by the company", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO if:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  it happens later", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  it will be all contengent workers", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "  it will stay as rumors", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FchrwKDv--5.png?alt=media&token=208675e4-6ebe-4838-a8dc-a7e52dcbbdfd", "groupSlugs": ["meta-facebook"], "textDescription": "There are rumors this can happen: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-07/meta-platforms-is-said-to-plan-thousands-more-layoffs\n\nResolves YES if:\n  >=2000 Meta's full time employees gets laid off\n  before 2023-03-18\n  it will be publicly announced by the company\n\nResolves NO if:\n  it happens later\n  it will be all contengent workers\n  it will stay as rumors\n"}, {"id": "WxKN0LwVbH6KxrsGv0ub", "creatorId": "4rI8ieF0GOXo2RBHm1ZjoPjMCh72", "creatorUsername": "belikewater", "creatorName": "belikewater", "createdTime": 1663994844118, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbelikewater%2FoNfl0ALkQI.jpeg?alt=media&token=14feff17-9b3a-4a2a-a645-cea3bb70be0d", "closeTime": 1688883723809, "question": "Will at least 33.5M people age 16 and over in the US consider themselves to have a disability in June, 2023?", "slug": "will-at-least-335m-people-age-16-an", "url": "https://manifold.markets/belikewater/will-at-least-335m-people-age-16-an", "pool": {"NO": 165.5979149541666, "YES": 243.4173938274004}, "probability": 0.34325659997349284, "p": 0.4344789263361371, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 853.1067120326534, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688883723809, "resolutionProbability": 0.34, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687388227129, "lastBetTime": 1687388227003, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Before the Covid pandemic, the number of people age 16 or over with a disability in the US was largely flat for several years, according to FRED data. Since the pandemic started, that number has trended upward. It has been estimated that as of June, 2022, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "about 16 million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.brookings.edu/research/new-data-shows-long-covid-is-keeping-as-many-as-4-million-people-out-of-work/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " people age 18-65 in the US have long Covid, and long Covid has likely contributed to the increasing trend in the number of people who report that they have a disability. SARS-CoV-2 infection also increases the risks of many cardiovascular, neurological and other disorders and events for a substantial period following infection. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It is possible that growing numbers of long Covid cases may result in increasing numbers of people who report that they have a disability; such increases, in turn, may reduce the size of the workforce compared to what it would have been in the absence of such changes. Thus, this question aims to examine indirectly one facet of long Covid's effects on the population, a facet that could have substantial economic impact.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve to YES if FRED data (Population - With a Disability, 16 Years and over (LNU00074597), ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ) for June, 2023 indicates that 33,500,000 or more people age 16 years and over in the US have a disability. In Aug, 2022, a total of 32,316,000 people age 16 and over in the US were reported to have a disability. The question will resolve when the FRED data for June, 2023 becomes available, which is expected to occur before the end of July, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "Before the Covid pandemic, the number of people age 16 or over with a disability in the US was largely flat for several years, according to FRED data. Since the pandemic started, that number has trended upward. It has been estimated that as of June, 2022, about 16 million people age 18-65 in the US have long Covid, and long Covid has likely contributed to the increasing trend in the number of people who report that they have a disability. SARS-CoV-2 infection also increases the risks of many cardiovascular, neurological and other disorders and events for a substantial period following infection. \n\nIt is possible that growing numbers of long Covid cases may result in increasing numbers of people who report that they have a disability; such increases, in turn, may reduce the size of the workforce compared to what it would have been in the absence of such changes. Thus, this question aims to examine indirectly one facet of long Covid's effects on the population, a facet that could have substantial economic impact.\n\nThe question will resolve to YES if FRED data (Population - With a Disability, 16 Years and over (LNU00074597), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU00074597 ) for June, 2023 indicates that 33,500,000 or more people age 16 years and over in the US have a disability. In Aug, 2022, a total of 32,316,000 people age 16 and over in the US were reported to have a disability. The question will resolve when the FRED data for June, 2023 becomes available, which is expected to occur before the end of July, 2023."}, {"id": "d93wIan01eDEZ9vUgdfb", "creatorId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "creatorUsername": "BTE", "creatorName": "Brian T. Edwards", "createdTime": 1665229248302, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2FaSsPoXaRJr.png?alt=media&token=bb7d2e7c-7345-43a6-aae9-3fcd8f17498c", "closeTime": 1667969940000, "question": "Will Patty Murray be reelected to the US Senate in Washington State?", "slug": "will-patty-murray-be-reelected-to-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-patty-murray-be-reelected-to-t", "pool": {"NO": 16813.298461911345, "YES": 503.8346462050142}, "probability": 0.9925378949578068, "p": 0.7994323545621105, "totalLiquidity": 1170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 29388.525187995307, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1668004019747, "resolutionProbability": 0.9925378949578068, "uniqueBettorCount": 52, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667968621511, "lastBetTime": 1667968621191, "lastCommentTime": 1666749700294, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Murray is reelected to the US Senate. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-2022-elections", "us-2022-midterms", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Murray is reelected to the US Senate. Resolves NO if not. \n\n\nClose date updated to 2022-11-08 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "6kMm5mOp1E2EX16k0G1S", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1702608311788, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1715105125485, "question": "Will NYC have Used at least 115 gallons per person per day in 2023?", "slug": "will-nyc-use-more-than-115-gallons", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-nyc-use-more-than-115-gallons", "pool": {"NO": 28.730514137792106, "YES": 483.0504421480604}, "probability": 0.09000000000001093, "p": 0.6244609614109636, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 132.5444397622005, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715105125485, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715105125485, "lastBetTime": 1715105122043, "lastCommentTime": 1702608521369, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Info: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FXmS68y0XJA.png?alt=media&token=71024458-aac1-4df1-9c99-cf13fc998218", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/strutheo%2F9e1eff752dce.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["water", "nyc", "manhattan", "environment-243810591da2", "urbanism", "population"], "textDescription": "Info: https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Environment/Water-Consumption-in-the-City-of-New-York/ia2d-e54m\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "pbpu7LtwIRaJmCm0HpEm", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700698250490, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700780400000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on November 23 than it closed on November 22?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-november-2-7220c5ffff89", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-november-2-7220c5ffff89", "pool": {"NO": 87.6510487985062, "YES": 277.38916547122284}, "probability": 0.26999999999999946, "p": 0.5392777301335194, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 678.5693967530203, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700786440922, "resolutionProbability": 0.27, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700786419155, "lastBetTime": 1700779826767, "lastCommentTime": 1700786418387, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "5.17", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "economics-default", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), DOT daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):\n https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel\n\nPrevious Close: $5.17\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "TaJBJOSpaVAKllWK8Q9Y", "creatorId": "5LZ4LgYuySdL1huCWe7bti02ghx2", "creatorUsername": "JamesGrugett", "creatorName": "James", "createdTime": 1640966349327, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJamesGrugett%2FefVzXKc9iz.png?alt=media&token=5c205402-04d5-4e64-be65-9d8b4836eb03", "closeTime": 1667865600000, "question": "Will there be a federal mask requirement in place on domestic flights as of Nov. 8, 2022?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requir", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-there-be-a-federal-mask-requir", "pool": {"NO": 120.67917523143909, "YES": 1893.7508810528263}, "probability": 0.009132320534260056, "p": 0.12635463445129594, "totalLiquidity": 201.33661907269226, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5823.971188513722, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1668301224477, "resolutionProbability": 0.009132320534260056, "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668171802417, "lastBetTime": 1667862000413, "lastCommentTime": 1668171800232, "description": "This question is from Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1476930984931168276\nNov 8th, 2022 is election day!", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "medicine"], "textDescription": "This question is from Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1476930984931168276\nNov 8th, 2022 is election day!"}, {"id": "dX3SyEeshWgYsVpLGGzC", "creatorId": "BT3bIgurm7dVf4k0DvxSEUapUdf2", "creatorUsername": "JakeB", "creatorName": "Jake", "createdTime": 1679399731581, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FGarrettB%2FgNARcW21Fm.jpeg?alt=media&token=64315dad-a7df-41b6-ad1c-29f3b797d25f", "closeTime": 1682908140000, "question": "Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win one playoff series in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-on", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JakeB/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-win-on", "pool": {"NO": 13343.799704279007, "YES": 66.16859345052397}, "probability": 0.998310886434713, "p": 0.7455958741364985, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15467.31196493261, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682947945907, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682902372297, "lastBetTime": 1682902372182, "lastCommentTime": 1682820430362, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Toronto Maple Leafs, notorious playoff disappointments, have not won an NHL playoff series since 2004. Will they win a series this year?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-ht5L-Nul8.png?alt=media&token=864112db-1ea5-423f-a720-1a436fb11979", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "The Toronto Maple Leafs, notorious playoff disappointments, have not won an NHL playoff series since 2004. Will they win a series this year?"}, {"id": "7tfk5iqPuj5ISjisPt43", "creatorId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "creatorUsername": "JuJumper", "creatorName": "JuJumper", "createdTime": 1681586386288, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJuJumper%2FNQcKWxN-KS.jpeg?alt=media&token=a75ec81c-1337-4eac-a19a-b9b702a3816e", "closeTime": 1704059940000, "question": "Will the U.S. send military personnel to Haiti for active peacekeeping in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-send-military-personnel-273771df62c7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-the-us-send-military-personnel-273771df62c7", "pool": {"NO": 188.50697436834636, "YES": 1446.1687404011607}, "probability": 0.034348782357300774, "p": 0.2143842135862411, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1450.3575642052579, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704095001203, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "iqqXdh6REfbbLnvuqvCX5Hu0gxL2", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704095001571, "lastBetTime": 1702310798184, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/NickAllen/will-the-us-send-military-personnel", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves to \"yes\" if U.S. military on active orders are deployed to Haiti with an active peacekeeping mission. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Things that do not resolve the question to \"yes\" include: delivering supplies, including weapons or vehicles; training Haitian military or police in Haiti, etc.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Official announcements or documentation of US troops being used offensively against locals (as opposed to defending areas where they are conducting training/logistics missions) will resolve to \"yes\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Extreme ambiguity will resolve N/A. For example, highly ambiguous documentation without official government pronouncement.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a duplicate of a 2022 market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FcN7PIJQwP5.png?alt=media&token=17a7de11-a46b-4d98-9bc4-353db2cc963d", "groupSlugs": ["wars", "latam-caribbean", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "(https://manifold.markets/embed/NickAllen/will-the-us-send-military-personnel)This question resolves to \"yes\" if U.S. military on active orders are deployed to Haiti with an active peacekeeping mission. \n\nThings that do not resolve the question to \"yes\" include: delivering supplies, including weapons or vehicles; training Haitian military or police in Haiti, etc.\n\nOfficial announcements or documentation of US troops being used offensively against locals (as opposed to defending areas where they are conducting training/logistics missions) will resolve to \"yes\".\n\nExtreme ambiguity will resolve N/A. For example, highly ambiguous documentation without official government pronouncement.\n\nThis is a duplicate of a 2022 market."}, {"id": "pGRQJykpWMYEKOkWu5Pc", "creatorId": "SFfLPdsYA6bQ2KfBxSBi9YLAYoW2", "creatorUsername": "DushyantM", "creatorName": "Dushyant M", "createdTime": 1690915778731, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdOEvBPkqw-yCVoOKzZoObncChgJBpBHpx6yGH_sAcj=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705341540000, "question": "Will Gonzalo Lira remain alive and free for the next 30 days?", "slug": "will-gonzalo-lira-remain-alive-and", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DushyantM/will-gonzalo-lira-remain-alive-and", "pool": {"NO": 156.12439065341553, "YES": 441.38948504380926}, "probability": 0.07840466108086533, "p": 0.1938870262712017, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3026.724426568989, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716773081917, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "KHX2ThSFtLQlau58hrjtCX7OL2h2", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705341540000, "lastBetTime": 1705340612792, "lastCommentTime": 1716772831528, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "US / Chilean citizen, pro Russia YouTuber living in Ukraine recently got bail and has posted that he is making a dash out of Ukraine (jumping his hearing August 2) -- Do you think over the next 30 days he will remain alive and free?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "US / Chilean citizen, pro Russia YouTuber living in Ukraine recently got bail and has posted that he is making a dash out of Ukraine (jumping his hearing August 2) -- Do you think over the next 30 days he will remain alive and free?"}, {"id": "jzLtx3FpFLAfwTOl5vjC", "creatorId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "creatorUsername": "OllieG", "creatorName": "Ollie G", "createdTime": 1706119685779, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdz4Yj3np666O_tJ0KIuoQIaeWb8QVEZmqKi9uN0kvKDak=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710427010641, "question": "Will Governor Chris Sununu endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention?", "slug": "will-governor-chris-sununu-endorse", "url": "https://manifold.markets/OllieG/will-governor-chris-sununu-endorse", "pool": {"NO": 1609.0876802116934, "YES": 5.308607977268231}, "probability": 0.99456011233576, "p": 0.376237085825957, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1573.9501945925524, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710427010641, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "YrDmlkQwcTf5nuwVlfvlNvsIbPR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710427079728, "lastBetTime": 1710427008813, "lastCommentTime": 1710427079081, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "has endorsed", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary. However, Trump is increasingly looking like the presumptive nominee. Will Sununu publicly endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15th?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chris Sununu endorses Trump", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "before ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "July 15th, 2024", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Endorsement definition: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Saying \"I will support the eventual nominee\" doesn't count", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "We're looking for a compelling social media post or speech or press release by Sununu", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will look to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-endorsements/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for extra confidence", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/OllieG%2F8bbc4d3223a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries"], "textDescription": "New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu has endorsed Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican primary. However, Trump is increasingly looking like the presumptive nominee. Will Sununu publicly endorse Trump before the Republican National Convention begins on July 15th?\n\nResolves YES if:\n\nChris Sununu endorses Trump\n\nbefore July 15th, 2024\n\nEndorsement definition: \n\nSaying \"I will support the eventual nominee\" doesn't count\n\nWe're looking for a compelling social media post or speech or press release by Sununu\n\nWill look to the FiveThirtyEight endorsement tracker for extra confidence"}, {"id": "OX0NHcnMlZvjWVHU6WZF", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1683600578122, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1683820800000, "question": "Liberals vs Conservatives (3 day market | Limit orders are restricted to a maximum of \u1e4010k per)", "slug": "liberals-vs-conservatives-3-day-mar-deb8248b41c5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/liberals-vs-conservatives-3-day-mar-deb8248b41c5", "pool": {"NO": 2146.792934251464, "YES": 1.1645277754146264}, "probability": 0.999457844116561, "p": 0.5000000000000216, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5243.224569916196, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1683885506283, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704341833800, "lastBetTime": 1683820799457, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Liberals ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = Conservatives ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rules", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Make the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Give all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "resolve the market against them", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes on 5/11/23 9 A.M. PST", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F0cRYYC5kD6.png?alt=media&token=b8f778ae-990c-45bc-865f-4a372cace067", "groupSlugs": ["gambling", "whale-watching", "fun", "nonpredictive", "unsubsidized"], "textDescription": "Yes = Liberals \n\nNo = Conservatives \n\nI will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.\n\nRules\n\nThe largest single limit order you can put down is \u1e4010k. You can make multiple limit orders but they have to be at least 1 minute apart. This is to:\n\nPrevent whales from sniping the market last second by creating a limit order that is too large (Ex. a \u1e40100k limit order) for most traders to overcome.\n\nPrevent whales from putting down multiple \u1e4010k limit orders in quick succession right before the market closes to guarantee a win.\n\nMake the market a more even playing field for those with less mana while still letting those with more mana have an advantage, just not an insurmountable one.\n\nGive all traders a reason to actively participate during the final moments before the market closes since you can't just put down a \u1e4050k or \u1e40100k limit order and automatically win.\n\nIf someone breaks the rules and wins as a result, I will resolve the market as N/A or in some cases, resolve the market against them.\n\nAfter the market has closed, I will push it all the way up to 100% or all the way down to 0% in favor of the winning side before resolving it. I will not be participating at all while the market is still open.\n\nMarket closes on 5/11/23 9 A.M. PST"}, {"id": "SUZmY4F3QpJEYJlHqyAz", "creatorId": "eSqS9cD5mzYcP2o7FrST8aC5IWn2", "creatorUsername": "PlasmaBallin", "creatorName": "Plasma Ballin'", "createdTime": 1693775980707, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPlasmaBallin%2FYrJAoOelNo.webp?alt=media&token=f4264f7d-f428-4baf-a942-444e233b50a5", "closeTime": 1696741140000, "question": "Do Manifolders think credences are more fundamental than beliefs?", "slug": "do-manifolders-think-credences-are", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/do-manifolders-think-credences-are", "pool": {"NO": 169.60855593364118, "YES": 169.11897914271745}, "probability": 0.44187625077611714, "p": 0.4411634658351753, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 35, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697940404713, "resolutionProbability": 0.44, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697940429372, "lastBetTime": 1696735113318, "lastCommentTime": 1697940428705, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On my Manifold Survey, I will ask:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Which are more fundamental, beliefs or credences?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Beliefs", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Credences", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Both are equally fundamental.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Neither is fundamental.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Not sure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll also include the background details:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A credence (sometimes called a degree of belief) represents how probable you consider a given claim, while a belief is whether you think a claim is true. Some philosophers or psychologists would say that beliefs are the more fundamental psychological concept, and credences just represent how confident we are in various beliefs or are derived from them in some way. Others would say that credences are more fundamental and that a belief is just a claim that we have a certain level of credence in.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will more respondents select \"credences\" than \"beliefs\"?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Plasma's Manifold Survey", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/plasmas-manifold-survey?r=Sm9zZXBoTm9vbmFu", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " for other questions about the survey.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The survey is officially out! You can take it here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FD1S8S_fcRw.png?alt=media&token=f3d0cccd-4585-4562-98bb-c23ed9d2f083", "groupSlugs": ["philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "manifold-surveys", "plasmas-manifold-survey", "philosophy"], "textDescription": "On my Manifold Survey, I will ask:\n\nWhich are more fundamental, beliefs or credences?\n\nBeliefs\n\nCredences\n\nBoth are equally fundamental.\n\nNeither is fundamental.\n\nNot sure\n\nOther\n\nI'll also include the background details:\n\nA credence (sometimes called a degree of belief) represents how probable you consider a given claim, while a belief is whether you think a claim is true. Some philosophers or psychologists would say that beliefs are the more fundamental psychological concept, and credences just represent how confident we are in various beliefs or are derived from them in some way. Others would say that credences are more fundamental and that a belief is just a claim that we have a certain level of credence in.\n\nWill more respondents select \"credences\" than \"beliefs\"?\n\nSee Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.\n\nThe survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9"}, {"id": "yphAxlSihQ8BpfeDG8G8", "creatorId": "UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1", "creatorUsername": "Blomfilter", "creatorName": "Blomfilter", "createdTime": 1688843496393, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBlomfilter%2F0YcNwPPAf2.jpeg?alt=media&token=7b89faaf-e191-47bb-b45c-6f0fb44c4e70", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will another Country other than the USA send cluster bombs as aid to another country in 2023", "slug": "will-another-country-other-than-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-another-country-other-than-the", "pool": {"NO": 29.742070456096258, "YES": 389.2532155274998}, "probability": 0.07000000000000012, "p": 0.49624461317776336, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 305.8323903282259, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704098923782, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "UwLRWVqwccdsr1HnGowNxO32pTt1", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704098924111, "lastBetTime": 1702892820064, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A recent controversial decision was to send cluster bombs to ukraine:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66133527", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66133527", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will another country follow suit in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "b71d3c6e-d3cc-4b8f-b655-ec5ec6e0fb23", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66133527", "image": "https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/13287/production/_130317487_7c2b25edb26395ec87c32d7e86d91f5b61df0fc4.jpg", "title": "What are cluster bombs and why is US sending them to Ukraine?", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Cluster bombs are banned by more than 100 countries - so the move will likely draw intense criticism.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, any other country other than the United States must send cluster bombs to any Country.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve YES, an article documenting the occurrence must appear on a major news outlets website", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "A recent controversial decision was to send cluster bombs to ukraine:\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66133527\n\nWill another country follow suit in 2023?\n\n[link preview]To resolve YES, any other country other than the United States must send cluster bombs to any Country.\n\nTo resolve YES, an article documenting the occurrence must appear on a major news outlets website"}, {"id": "UAmQPhzlhQkuhT2bOOZx", "creatorId": "vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2", "creatorUsername": "TiredCliche", "creatorName": "Forrest Taylor", "createdTime": 1704314390397, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTiredCliche%2FL02U7AeM4o.png?alt=media&token=e144f470-f8d1-48c6-a536-985190ee8661", "closeTime": 1709303228490, "question": "Will Ledisi release a new album in 2024?", "slug": "will-ledisi-release-a-new-album-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TiredCliche/will-ledisi-release-a-new-album-in", "pool": {"NO": 12615, "YES": 1.8301586728375696}, "probability": 0.9999002254625843, "p": 0.5924875974486337, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12545, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709303228490, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "vVRJosxGdPhS3qZVG1h8IboRZIs2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709303229271, "lastBetTime": 1709303206125, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her last album was Ledisi sings Nina in 2021. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/TiredCliche%2F39c1e41658a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-artists", "music-f213cbf1eab5"], "textDescription": "Her last album was Ledisi sings Nina in 2021. "}, {"id": "RJ09w5ecVvt36ktCyikA", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1698773018788, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1698854400000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher november 1th than the close of october 31th?", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-november-1", "pool": {"NO": 964.5416610404559, "YES": 90.28159670500679}, "probability": 0.9682487459973734, "p": 0.7405515883994734, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 998.2100059619725, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698860122662, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698860118890, "lastBetTime": 1698853578643, "lastCommentTime": 1698860118378, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FIe_3HtW8Dj.png?alt=media&token=1e065ed8-aaea-4144-ba00-1368cdc0fd68", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "sccsq4", "stocks"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "TXkNSi36eAJ4G6LDeYwW", "creatorId": "z0v7b1gwqdMoz0R8KHAjhqQ27vZ2", "creatorUsername": "TANSTAAFL", "creatorName": "TANSTAAFL", "createdTime": 1653953859488, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgPGseEv9a6WEoOr106hlo4h2j8TvX7WN1IlBeKcw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1654018083192, "question": "Will Hillary Clinton's lawyer Michael Sussmann be convicted of lying to the FBI?", "slug": "will-hillary-clintons-lawyer-michae", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TANSTAAFL/will-hillary-clintons-lawyer-michae", "pool": {"NO": 82.15674451643994, "YES": 124.89359804523593}, "probability": 0.3963662605572065, "p": 0.4995510700917015, "totalLiquidity": 100.63841172858427, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1654018083192, "resolutionProbability": 0.3963662605572065, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1654018072855, "lastBetTime": 1654014436333, "lastCommentTime": 1654018068299, "description": "Jury deliberations are in progress.\nhttps://nypost.com/2022/05/30/jury-deliberations-to-resume-in-michael-sussmann-trial/", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "Jury deliberations are in progress.\nhttps://nypost.com/2022/05/30/jury-deliberations-to-resume-in-michael-sussmann-trial/"}, {"id": "ID8jdb108PeMAACWobDA", "creatorId": "fryTbWFGQoesXma889Bkjk8l52z2", "creatorUsername": "RobertWiblin", "creatorName": "Robert Wiblin", "createdTime": 1660072573255, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucrULq_H2qoP83SR1oV4WaK0XGDPVoZXo5LrKWzh1w=s96-c", "closeTime": 1688165940000, "question": "Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent?", "slug": "will-monkeypox-spread-among-straigh", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RobertWiblin/will-monkeypox-spread-among-straigh", "pool": {"NO": 701.4944934735884, "YES": 22458.788892816636}, "probability": 0.012272267613831529, "p": 0.2845829712261574, "totalLiquidity": 2020, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 56624.88647427971, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688641791305, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 73, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687527084003, "lastBetTime": 1687527083843, "lastCommentTime": 1675689462650, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK Health Security Agency is currently ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-5", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that so far 95.3% of cases of monkeypox in the UK have occurred among people who are 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men'.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if, by 1 July 2023, the UK Health Security Agency or another UK government agency releases data suggesting that less than 50% of new monkeypox cases in the UK are occurring among the 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men' group.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "medicine", "monkeypox"], "textDescription": "The UK Health Security Agency is currently reporting that so far 95.3% of cases of monkeypox in the UK have occurred among people who are 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men'.\n\nThis market will resolve YES if, by 1 July 2023, the UK Health Security Agency or another UK government agency releases data suggesting that less than 50% of new monkeypox cases in the UK are occurring among the 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men' group."}, {"id": "y8KRPsq84hUvThdDWKec", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1700418750165, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1702667700000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on Fri. December 15th than it closed on Thu. December 14th? {DAILY}", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-c4d4f2a5fb1b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-c4d4f2a5fb1b", "pool": {"NO": 109.01241234284606, "YES": 182.98619500947635}, "probability": 0.28757557464092576, "p": 0.4039004659423388, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 806.4372953758156, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702679288798, "resolutionProbability": 0.29, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702679282992, "lastBetTime": 1702667451038, "lastCommentTime": 1702679282269, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Russell 2000 (RUT)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " 215pm ET (615pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLYWvoK12m6.png?alt=media&token=ec4022f7-b879-4581-b9b1-5fb2a11d2ed2", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "WEEKLY MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-e843ee0c6d2e", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "textDescription": "Russell 2000 (RUT)\n\nRUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC) (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at 215pm ET (615pm UTC)\n\nResolves YES or NO ; N/A May Occur At My Discretion If Markets Crash\n\nResolves NO If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nWEEKLY MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-e843ee0c6d2e)"}, {"id": "rDlNYa1FytZi9OpJPNc7", "creatorId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "creatorUsername": "Joshua", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1690140138647, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Fujp23gvEwG.jpg?alt=media&token=18568211-45f0-470f-8de8-3682ec5c0978", "closeTime": 1706237920945, "question": "Will Twitter's rebrand change the resolution of any existing Twitter questions on Manifold in 2023?", "slug": "will-twitters-rebranding-change-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-twitters-rebranding-change-the", "pool": {"NO": 130.1228289561978, "YES": 1557.649431663395}, "probability": 0.07999999999999992, "p": 0.5100254839907845, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1737.8491581364995, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706237920945, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705796228503, "lastBetTime": 1705796228363, "lastCommentTime": 1690170223731, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There are many questions on Manifold about Twitter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Most prominently, the markets about whether Trump will tweet anything by the end of the year. But I am also including other markets about if someone will tweet something specific, have N followers on Twitter, etc etc.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "But Twitter is supposedly rebranding! Will this potential technicality change the outcome of any existing markets this year?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if any such market which was created before the rebrand was announced is resolved differently than it otherwise would have been. This includes markets being resolved as N/A or a percentage instead of YES/NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"], "textDescription": "There are many questions on Manifold about Twitter.\n\nMost prominently, the markets about whether Trump will tweet anything by the end of the year. But I am also including other markets about if someone will tweet something specific, have N followers on Twitter, etc etc.\n\nBut Twitter is supposedly rebranding! Will this potential technicality change the outcome of any existing markets this year?\n\nThis market resolves YES if any such market which was created before the rebrand was announced is resolved differently than it otherwise would have been. This includes markets being resolved as N/A or a percentage instead of YES/NO.\n\nOtherwise, this market resolves NO.\n\nI will not bet in this market."}, {"id": "Xu1gi8nOPrxWo6AIW0yY", "creatorId": "9jXBo29qfYXjeboSop4JBgHCFS83", "creatorUsername": "ZadeTesting", "creatorName": "Zade Testing", "createdTime": 1689223499789, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTteE0zNQeBK80tUTJuCtIcSOEKLxtk6U5MllTMW2LbrpZw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1701341940000, "question": "Will the tax companies that shared data with Google & Facebook be fined more than $100 million?", "slug": "will-the-tax-companies-that-shared", "url": "https://manifold.markets/ZadeTesting/will-the-tax-companies-that-shared", "pool": {"NO": 302.2054402930957, "YES": 476.00101504463964}, "probability": 0.2833851787694748, "p": 0.38380744447283216, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1407.4735231520117, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1714687760876, "resolutionProbability": 0.28, "resolverId": "9jXBo29qfYXjeboSop4JBgHCFS83", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714687800174, "lastBetTime": 1701049620602, "lastCommentTime": 1714687798818, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/07/meta-wont-say-what-happened-to-taxpayer-data-it-may-have-illegally-collected/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/07/meta-wont-say-what-happened-to-taxpayer-data-it-may-have-illegally-collected/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "23cb2281-27bc-45ee-810f-02d2b7645d89", "url": "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/07/meta-wont-say-what-happened-to-taxpayer-data-it-may-have-illegally-collected/", "image": "https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/GettyImages-174879501-760x380.jpg", "title": "Tax preparers that shared private data with Meta, Google could be fined billions", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "One tax preparer said the scandal likely impacts every user of its services.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["law-order"], "textDescription": "https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/07/meta-wont-say-what-happened-to-taxpayer-data-it-may-have-illegally-collected/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "NrmaCxq5Crnx64XR12FH", "creatorId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "creatorUsername": "marktwse", "creatorName": "Marktwse", "createdTime": 1693047835215, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmarktwse%2FWjhyMIEV_F.png?alt=media&token=6048ec55-a1e3-4188-9bef-c594df1664e4", "closeTime": 1705186740000, "question": "Will NOAA publish a CEI for 2023 of 30+%?", "slug": "will-noaa-publish-a-cei-for-2023-of", "url": "https://manifold.markets/marktwse/will-noaa-publish-a-cei-for-2023-of", "pool": {"NO": 225.478290249936, "YES": 135.18815267944686}, "probability": 0.6900000000000001, "p": 0.571644283274, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 94.25802392561332, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705193467812, "resolutionProbability": 0.69, "resolverId": "Gv076pTh0ZQUVwTqQt9Ro2xnz2f1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705193468184, "lastBetTime": 1705182197029, "lastCommentTime": 1705193455323, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOAA monitors the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " to quantify changes in climate. The default ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "graph", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/cei/graph", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is for \"Contiguous U.S.\" and \"Annual (January-December)\" and \"Without Tropical Cyclone Indicator\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHWTsogweKT.png?alt=media&token=5fdc52a7-cca5-4d19-8799-6e2dd4a264c5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2022 it was at 20% but 2015-2021 it was over 30% every year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if NOAA publishes a CEI of 30% or higher for 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if NOAA publishes a CEI below 30% for 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "climate", "2023", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "NOAA monitors the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) to quantify changes in climate. The default graph is for \"Contiguous U.S.\" and \"Annual (January-December)\" and \"Without Tropical Cyclone Indicator\".\n\n[image]In 2022 it was at 20% but 2015-2021 it was over 30% every year.\n\nResolves YES if NOAA publishes a CEI of 30% or higher for 2023.\n\nResolves NO if NOAA publishes a CEI below 30% for 2023."}, {"id": "vt0DPkPMW4hzMBtHWHbj", "creatorId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "creatorUsername": "cash", "creatorName": "cshunter", "createdTime": 1699590382452, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fconnorcash%2F1AwgT_fRqZ.jpg?alt=media&token=a534da3f-a624-4ba5-a8e4-4df3e286b14e", "closeTime": 1713976205489, "question": "Will global approval of the US decline in 2023, according to Gallup?", "slug": "will-global-approval-of-the-us-decl", "url": "https://manifold.markets/cash/will-global-approval-of-the-us-decl", "pool": {"NO": 90.62605867775787, "YES": 3890.771534106121}, "probability": 0.019875919762390355, "p": 0.46541798182648036, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4067.945134555779, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713976205489, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "GRaWlYn2fNah0bvr6OW28l28nFn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713976205489, "lastBetTime": 1713962320908, "lastCommentTime": 1713919671960, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gallup polls residents from countries around the world their opinion of the United States' leadership, releasing a report around April in the following year. The Rating World Leaders report published in Apr 2023 can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.gallup.com/analytics/474539/gallup-rating-world-leaders-report.aspx", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F1x8vGebF-e.png?alt=media&token=a5c50862-5d2c-4f58-a516-ab24581b36f0", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Gallup's next Rating World Leaders report show a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "decline", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " in global approval of the United States (40% or lower) for 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "BeizbEzfzZ4gjIUuZfhK,VCvFen1iQmvsLTmcVBuK,Lnc9YXYGHdBAha8FQ516"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-1KWWKRbX17cGxGdg12Yy5Tx6.png?st=2023-11-10T03%3A26%3A36Z&se=2023-11-10T05%3A26%3A36Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-10T00%3A16%3A04Z&ske=2023-11-11T00%3A16%3A04Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=xQ5sJe7V/MnMEXIvyxJlBzy0K1mEJmscQH%2BeE4lvcgs%3D", "groupSlugs": ["public-opinion", "us-politics", "politics-default", "world-default", "the-life-of-biden"], "textDescription": "Gallup polls residents from countries around the world their opinion of the United States' leadership, releasing a report around April in the following year. The Rating World Leaders report published in Apr 2023 can be found here.\n\n[image]Will Gallup's next Rating World Leaders report show a decline in global approval of the United States (40% or lower) for 2023?\n\nRelated questions:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "dea0fuksoDrWh126qNT0", "creatorId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "creatorUsername": "Soli", "creatorName": "Soli \uaa5c", "createdTime": 1700485926913, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSoli%2FdFEQMzdPmS.png?alt=media&token=2bf72f44-15d4-4349-b8d8-036e569a957f", "closeTime": 1700900121171, "question": "Will Microsoft\u2019s stock price double from its opening price on Monday, Nov 20, to its closing price on Friday, Nov 25?", "slug": "will-microsofts-stock-price-double", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-microsofts-stock-price-double", "pool": {"NO": 295.9304475582459, "YES": 3157.5802695535804}, "probability": 0.00523551746969877, "p": 0.05317109437448388, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4961.64257378902, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700900121171, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700702146592, "lastBetTime": 1700702146429, "lastCommentTime": 1700574363781, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market will resolve to \u2018Yes\u2019 if the closing price of Microsoft\u2019s stock on NASDAQ on Friday, November 24, 2023, is at least double the stock\u2019s opening price on NASDAQ on Monday, November 20, 2023. It will resolve to \u2018No\u2019 if the closing price is less than double the opening price. The opening and closing prices will be the official prices recorded on NASDAQ. In the event of a stock split or any corporate action affecting stock price, the prices will be adjusted accordingly", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Why did the market resolve no?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mainly because it was a stupid question but the main reason being that obviosuly the stock price of a company as large as Microsoft did not double in 5 days.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["microsoft", "economics-default", "stocks"], "textDescription": "The market will resolve to \u2018Yes\u2019 if the closing price of Microsoft\u2019s stock on NASDAQ on Friday, November 24, 2023, is at least double the stock\u2019s opening price on NASDAQ on Monday, November 20, 2023. It will resolve to \u2018No\u2019 if the closing price is less than double the opening price. The opening and closing prices will be the official prices recorded on NASDAQ. In the event of a stock split or any corporate action affecting stock price, the prices will be adjusted accordingly\n\nWhy did the market resolve no?\n\nMainly because it was a stupid question but the main reason being that obviosuly the stock price of a company as large as Microsoft did not double in 5 days."}, {"id": "OPRkNMqWxr9EIdbE51aa", "creatorId": "9hWkzPveXIelUk4XOrm5WroriST2", "creatorUsername": "a", "creatorName": "arae", "createdTime": 1673287879396, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Farae%2F82_rlH7Py6.jpg?alt=media&token=55e829d6-3486-44bd-b33e-f49d13c87650", "closeTime": 1679589192289, "question": "Finland will remain the world\u2019s happiest country, while America won\u2019t crack the top dozen [in 2023]", "slug": "finland-will-remain-the-worlds-happ", "url": "https://manifold.markets/a/finland-will-remain-the-worlds-happ", "pool": {"NO": 4046.6878229739777, "YES": 319.6159326408915}, "probability": 0.9692742909399351, "p": 0.7135960799239691, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4748.859778208962, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1679589192289, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1679590452550, "lastBetTime": 1679504178183, "lastCommentTime": 1679590448154, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 75% chance:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Every year, the World Happiness Report ranks countries in terms of the happiness of their populations. It\u2019s an attempt to pay more attention to indicators of subjective well-being as opposed to raw GDP.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Finland has been the happiest country for five years running, thanks to its well-run public services, high levels of trust in authority, and low levels of crime and inequality, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "among other things", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/19/finland-named-worlds-happiest-country-for-fifth-year-running#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMany%20things%20are%20undeniably%20good,levels%20of%20crime%20and%20inequality.", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". And in 2022, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "researchers noted", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/19/world-happiness-ranking-2022-where-the-united-states-ranks-now.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " that its victory wasn\u2019t even a close call: Its score was \u201csignificantly ahead\u201d of every other country.", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "So I think it\u2019s likely to hold onto the top spot in 2023. As for America, its ranking did improve recently \u2014 from 19th place in 2021 to 16th place in 2022 \u2014 but it has never made it into the top dozen spots.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Vox", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/1/2/23494204/biden-trump-putin-supreme-court-2023-predictions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/how-will-the-world-happiness-report", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbPi_RIVs1t.png?alt=media&token=3f1f3572-44b2-45fe-b34e-4664a065d0d7", "groupSlugs": ["future-perfect-2023"], "textDescription": "This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 75% chance:\n\nEvery year, the World Happiness Report ranks countries in terms of the happiness of their populations. It\u2019s an attempt to pay more attention to indicators of subjective well-being as opposed to raw GDP.\n\n\nFinland has been the happiest country for five years running, thanks to its well-run public services, high levels of trust in authority, and low levels of crime and inequality, among other things. And in 2022, researchers noted that its victory wasn\u2019t even a close call: Its score was \u201csignificantly ahead\u201d of every other country. So I think it\u2019s likely to hold onto the top spot in 2023. As for America, its ranking did improve recently \u2014 from 19th place in 2021 to 16th place in 2022 \u2014 but it has never made it into the top dozen spots.\n\n(Vox)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/how-will-the-world-happiness-report)Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year."}, {"id": "ceIaIp4iHXcKcPfEzUcL", "creatorId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "creatorUsername": "JCDM", "creatorName": "Jimmy Carter Death Markets", "createdTime": 1707023498729, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTestiecool%2FSf9hv1SJhH.jpg?alt=media&token=b52f6399-67e5-4e8f-831d-01d8ae732bec", "closeTime": 1707627540000, "question": "Will Jimmy Carter die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "slug": "will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-6t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-6t", "pool": {"NO": 342.0918145379896, "YES": 6308.250852664765}, "probability": 0.005558901875094258, "p": 0.09344779038269697, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8534.696443635403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707628588901, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707628589276, "lastBetTime": 1707622055644, "lastCommentTime": 1707628378748, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Testiecool%2F15e8b82a014a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["jimmy-carter", "death-markets"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)\n\nResolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)"}, {"id": "Wqk0cAFV9NyJnVrk7qFn", "creatorId": "WQYDzL1AUNh1LrgklL3tubay3kk1", "creatorUsername": "AlexWilson", "creatorName": "Alex Wilson", "createdTime": 1659397876816, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJywBTf-CVQlTy7PmDXMwJ3lYJEgWoLugmbOEglE4g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1669678771907, "question": "Will World of Warcraft: Dragonflight launch before Dec 15, 2022?", "slug": "will-world-of-warcraft-dragonflight", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AlexWilson/will-world-of-warcraft-dragonflight", "pool": {"NO": 417.01136018462915, "YES": 87.94863438521749}, "probability": 0.9236455631905578, "p": 0.7184086693675453, "totalLiquidity": 160, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 272.694359605923, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1669678771907, "resolutionProbability": 0.9236455631905578, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1669678765291, "lastBetTime": 1669038623320, "lastCommentTime": 1669678763595, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://us.shop.battle.net/en-us/product/world-of-warcraft-dragonflight", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://us.shop.battle.net/en-us/product/world-of-warcraft-dragonflight", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*World of Warcraft\u00ae: Dragonflight will be available on or before December 31, 2022", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["gaming"], "textDescription": "https://us.shop.battle.net/en-us/product/world-of-warcraft-dragonflight\n\n*World of Warcraft\u00ae: Dragonflight will be available on or before December 31, 2022"}, {"id": "htZ9hwyEbXjsrcr8BqUB", "creatorId": "bBkMmdrsu4dsy0Yguic0QvdN1o52", "creatorUsername": "GoncaloM", "creatorName": "Gon\u00e7alo M", "createdTime": 1695066281777, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtdtRkT2LCncUT9PVlZ18slyb_JQHvRVem9W57YLGpj8r7CQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695419775928, "question": "Will NVIDIA\u2019s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $450 per share on September 22, 2023?", "slug": "will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-06b8620b4ecb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GoncaloM/will-nvidias-nasdaq-ticker-nvda-sto-06b8620b4ecb", "pool": {"NO": 123.31924718258415, "YES": 3063.83029228339}, "probability": 0.01121856248555431, "p": 0.21989833940585743, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4871.264774674329, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695419775928, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222352796, "lastBetTime": 1695414644633, "lastCommentTime": 1695320536876, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Another weekly prediction for NVDA.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $450 USD on the closing price of 22 of September, 2023. Any moves above $450 USD during the week will not count towards this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "tech-stocks", "wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "Another weekly prediction for NVDA.\nWill resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $450 USD on the closing price of 22 of September, 2023. Any moves above $450 USD during the week will not count towards this market.\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ"}, {"id": "xHKpFYkUS0vDy0E9KKSw", "creatorId": "yTQtNV03PLYavTHFJC2ow3WcLjy1", "creatorUsername": "jml", "creatorName": "jml", "createdTime": 1697767439216, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd0tW9tPMxLa9C5-sbO8Ahx6o5A6G0a7huypaoMhhTd=s96-c", "closeTime": 1710227867688, "question": "Will the word \"boredom\" appear in Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder letter for 2023?", "slug": "will-the-word-boredom-appear-in-ber", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jml/will-the-word-boredom-appear-in-ber", "pool": {"NO": 40.27126786175384, "YES": 1079.3296027202923}, "probability": 0.005282341886533077, "p": 0.12459346127046105, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1155.8072895115445, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710227867688, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710227868370, "lastBetTime": 1710118461734, "lastCommentTime": 1710227860021, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Berkshire Hathaway typically publishes an annual letter to its shareholders, often before the end of February in the year following that year which is the topic of the letter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves as Yes if and only if both of the following conditions are true:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Berkshire Hathaway's 2023 annual shareholder letter includes the string \"boredom\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Berkshire Hathaway's 2023 annual letter is accessible at this url ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2021ltr.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " no later than March 16th, 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves as No otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The other letters are visible here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["berkshire-hathaway", "boredom"], "textDescription": "Berkshire Hathaway typically publishes an annual letter to its shareholders, often before the end of February in the year following that year which is the topic of the letter.\n\nThis question resolves as Yes if and only if both of the following conditions are true:\n\nBerkshire Hathaway's 2023 annual shareholder letter includes the string \"boredom\".\n\nBerkshire Hathaway's 2023 annual letter is accessible at this url https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2023ltr.pdf no later than March 16th, 2024.\n\nResolves as No otherwise.\n\nThe other letters are visible here:\n\nhttps://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html"}, {"id": "n4XKZhQo9vFdZIzYWvtg", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1683580928289, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1704114767401, "question": "Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' gross more domestically than 'Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' by 2024?", "slug": "will-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-739c6fcaee5f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-indiana-jones-and-the-dial-of-739c6fcaee5f", "pool": {"NO": 71.95564729831767, "YES": 3297.737234446969}, "probability": 0.008644979936118772, "p": 0.28553854713440185, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2332.004385068977, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704114767401, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704114768297, "lastBetTime": 1700115945473, "lastCommentTime": 1688429555628, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' (2008) took in $317,101,119 at the domestic box-office. Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' beat that number?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The \u201cDomestic Daily\u201d tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the \"To Date\" column.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1462764/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1462764/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any finalized numbers in the \"To Date\" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $317,101,119, this market will resolve to \"YES\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"NO\" if once the December 31, 2023 \"To Date\" number is finalized it hasn't reached $317,101,119, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I couldn't fit the whole title for Crystal Skull in the title because of Manifold's character limit. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FxOGJmoQM6c.png?alt=media&token=4e7e96c8-2afc-4cdf-bbb3-b6a71c471f96", "groupSlugs": ["disney", "indiana-jones", "movies", "boxoffice"], "textDescription": "'Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull' (2008) took in $317,101,119 at the domestic box-office. Will 'Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny' beat that number?\n\nThe \u201cDomestic Daily\u201d tab on the movie's Box Office Mojo page will be used to resolve this market, specifically the \"To Date\" column.\n\nhttps://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1462764/\n\nIf any finalized numbers in the \"To Date\" column (for dates December 31, 2023 and before) show a value of more than $317,101,119, this market will resolve to \"YES\"\n\nThis market will resolve to \"NO\" if once the December 31, 2023 \"To Date\" number is finalized it hasn't reached $317,101,119, or if the run ends and the movie stops being carried by cinemas without it having reached that point.\n\nI couldn't fit the whole title for Crystal Skull in the title because of Manifold's character limit. "}, {"id": "tee1u69azr5XsMfgM4pT", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1683099790294, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1697417720488, "question": "Will South Africa make it to the 2023 Rugby World Cup Semi-finals?", "slug": "will-south-africa-make-it-to-the-20-55094e5055d1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-south-africa-make-it-to-the-20-55094e5055d1", "pool": {"NO": 11469.46139346465, "YES": 56.25661808354339}, "probability": 0.9982551639610435, "p": 0.7372702866237179, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23174.11218320989, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697417720488, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697410115890, "lastBetTime": 1697410115634, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FVgrzofPcFG.png?alt=media&token=f10b24d5-3da1-4c9b-904f-c3cff74cd318", "groupSlugs": ["2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup\n\nThe 2023 Rugby World Cup semi-finals are scheduled to take place on the 20th and 21st of October, 2023, at Stade de France, Saint-Denis."}, {"id": "occswiyLaNjbfOOSbve4", "creatorId": "petoMIbaMqdGwl3agbOXjlZVMJs1", "creatorUsername": "DylanSlagh", "creatorName": "Dylan Slagh", "createdTime": 1685666522265, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDylanSlagh%2FgqAoZDRdTC.png?alt=media&token=098c6912-2ad7-4506-965f-b7f20ae0bdd7", "closeTime": 1694001688298, "question": "Will the \"Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?\" market reach 10% in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-will-ai-wipe-out-humanity", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DylanSlagh/will-the-will-ai-wipe-out-humanity", "pool": {"NO": 58821.22642004605, "YES": 183.66031891125218}, "probability": 0.9984964491601335, "p": 0.6746408784665262, "totalLiquidity": 1850, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 106623.30852769513, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694001688298, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 101, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694010388401, "lastBetTime": 1693981127459, "lastCommentTime": 1694010388134, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Market in question:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "485b6c94-7f87-4efc-ace1-25fcb448f2d8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA", "image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Will+AI+wipe+out+humanity+before+the+year+2030%3F&numTraders=133&volume=261877&probability=29%25&creatorName=Martin+Randall&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa-%2FAOh14Gi4DoekN-bxocogrQc7Q8l6w7dDxSF_A5TEq7A6JQ%3Ds96-c&points=y_XDUwAAAD_09cNTN5A-PhL2w1Nhtmk-a_bDU8UILj5r9sNTxQguPmz2w1MpXA8-gPbDUyfSQD7J9sNTDEASPvn2w1OamRk-bffDU5sBGT44-MNTqYsAPo34w1NHnT4-KvnDU4_C9T3Q-8NTO5dKPh_-w1NFKks-QwDEU-xROD6bAMRT7FE4Ps8AxFN7FC4-CgHEU3sULj6FAcRTjb47PjQDxFPsUTg-QgPEU-xROD4DBcRT6bJLPoIHxFPNzEw-iAjEU83MTD4yCcRTPQpXPjwKxFPNzEw-3wvEU83MTD7kC8RTPQpXPlMMxFM9Clc-IA3EUz0KVz7wDsRTPQpXPukPxFM9Clc-ERHEUz0KVz5SEsRTPQpXPqITxFNcj0I-3hXEUz0KVz6WF8RTPQpXPsEYxFM9Clc-ghnEUz0KVz4PGsRTrkdhPukaxFM9Clc-ahzEUz0KVz7qHcRT7FE4PgYfxFNxslI-pR_EU6TCTj4TIMRTTAlRPtIgxFNcj0I-uSLEU1yPQj4wJMRTPQpXPiIlxFPNzEw-zCbEUzZ4Vj4CJ8RTzcxMPvwoxFNvQFE-gyvEU9TRUT4gLsRTPQpXPiEuxFM9Clc-2zDEUz0KVz7iMsRTzcxMPi8zxFMFz1c-ajTEUz0KVz6tNMRTPQpXPmo1xFPNzEw-CjfEU7XUUT6CN8RTi0y1PpA3xFOA3WI-kjfEU4DdYj5jOMRTHulZPvg4xFPVt1I-bDnEU10qUD78OsRTKKtfPgo7xFPbK2Y-ZjvEU2mVZD5_O8RTw_WoPok7xFPD9ag-rjvEUw9UYT6wO8RTw_WoPr47xFPD9ag-xzvEU7gehT7RO8RTw_WoPtY7xFNTXK4-5zvEU8P1qD78O8RT5NmhPho8xFNxPYo-HjzEU7gehT4sPMRTuB6FPjA8xFPoqKI-MTzEU3E9ij4_PMRTL3qaPk08xFNwToo-UTzEU41znD5sPMRTUriePoc8xFOHFp4-nTzEU5IfiD4", "title": "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "29% chance. If humanity is still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO. If humanity is not around but AI(s) are then this market resolves to YES. If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve. See also: @/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d\u2026", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fpy__60B4eV.png?alt=media&token=56ad6f77-f99a-4f9d-bf16-39bedc226645", "groupSlugs": ["ai-doom"], "textDescription": "Will Catnee's dominance of AI risk last? Will this market get any traders besides me? Will this blatent attempt to make short term profits work? Tune in next time on Manifold Markets!\n\nThe Market in question:\n\n[link preview]If the displayed value of the above market ever reaches 10% before market close and after the creation of this market, then this market resolves YES. If otherwise, this market resolves NO"}, {"id": "OzLordZIcGVbdEzkcDNg", "creatorId": "XWJFX1VKm1V9hx3aHv5wP3vms3O2", "creatorUsername": "CEPBot", "creatorName": "Cause Exploration Prizes", "createdTime": 1662163606599, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCauseExplorationPrizes%2FpZRrc6JNuv.png?alt=media&token=20f11d29-5cf5-4054-9884-1b0f34d3234b", "closeTime": 1662595200000, "question": "\"Expand Access to ADHD Treatment and Fund more Research\" by DeeptiBoddapati", "slug": "expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CEPBot/expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and", "pool": {"NO": 92.03600604837567, "YES": 211.04745738609643}, "probability": 0.046215270073273196, "p": 0.09999999999999998, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 697, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1662749991434, "resolutionProbability": 0.046215270073273196, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1662594460273, "lastBetTime": 1662594458852, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will DeeptiBoddapati's post \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Expand Access to ADHD Treatment and Fund more Research", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gE3MRaCmtGWBMTfB3/cause-exploration-prizes-expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "\" win first or second place in the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Cause Exploration Prizes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.causeexplorationprizes.com/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gE3MRaCmtGWBMTfB3/cause-exploration-prizes-expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["predict-cep"], "textDescription": "Will DeeptiBoddapati's post \"Expand Access to ADHD Treatment and Fund more Research\" win first or second place in the Cause Exploration Prizes?\n\n(https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gE3MRaCmtGWBMTfB3/cause-exploration-prizes-expand-access-to-adhd-treatment-and)"}, {"id": "8viBwBVbMnee6xPFKtJm", "creatorId": "oyn6Ac3vTZMpERPlYlhxHONQqSg2", "creatorUsername": "Lordoffatcats", "creatorName": "Lordoffatcats", "createdTime": 1690998896812, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtebPCncUW3fwPp66Ygi5n-iKiYP0HjQMqcs1H5rJrn1Rg4=s96-c", "closeTime": 1691185842456, "question": "Will NASA achieve communication with Voyager 2 before the start of October.", "slug": "will-nasa-achieve-communication-wit", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Lordoffatcats/will-nasa-achieve-communication-wit", "pool": {"NO": 1566.9228539961744, "YES": 108.20657052752975}, "probability": 0.9441247607017688, "p": 0.538501148573122, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3032.8431320488817, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691185842456, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691184956737, "lastBetTime": 1691184956611, "lastCommentTime": 1691180019664, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves yes if Credible news report that nasa has achieved active communication with Voyager 2 before October starts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "That means if NASA is able to send AND receive transmissions to AND from the spacecraft.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet in this market. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes on 30. Sept. 2023. Will be resolved on 1. Oct. 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://boingboing.net/2023/07/31/voyager-2-has-lost-communication-with-earth.html", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.npr.org/2023/08/02/1191341035/nasa-voyager-2-spacecraft-contact", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.npr.org/2023/08/02/1191341035/nasa-voyager-2-spacecraft-contact", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66371569", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-66371569", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "9f945985-2e08-4f1d-85c9-a20adbb252fe", "url": "https://www.npr.org/2023/08/02/1191341035/nasa-voyager-2-spacecraft-contact", "image": "https://media.npr.org/assets/img/2023/08/01/gettyimages-164430702_wide-14fc83c1c58c3480e6bc371c972dba68af52258a-s1400-c100.jpg", "title": "Earth to Voyager: NASA detects signal from spacecraft, two weeks after losing contact", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "The Jet Propulsion Lab lost contact with Voyager 2, which is traveling 12.3 billion miles away from Earth, after engineers mistakenly pointed its antenna 2 degrees away from its home planet.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FU2CxPxX3qn.png?alt=media&token=706b4def-ef65-48ee-b63c-8e17cfc41a10", "groupSlugs": ["space", "science-default", "world-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves yes if Credible news report that nasa has achieved active communication with Voyager 2 before October starts.\n\nThat means if NASA is able to send AND receive transmissions to AND from the spacecraft.\n\nI may bet in this market. \n\nQuestion closes on 30. Sept. 2023. Will be resolved on 1. Oct. 2023.\n\nhttps://boingboing.net/2023/07/31/voyager-2-has-lost-communication-with-earth.html\n\nhttps://www.npr.org/2023/08/02/1191341035/nasa-voyager-2-spacecraft-contact\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-66371569 \n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "uT1Aaow88FcNgaqp6eMa", "creatorId": "mZgHE6bTcMT09OEGb1aEq1taxNh1", "creatorUsername": "MaggieDelano", "creatorName": "Maggie Delano", "createdTime": 1687536641476, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxbasGusUy3-gTUQ4zZiZDsoIeXuPlw6eIntjv_CGg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1688137359206, "question": "Will an opinion for 303 Creative be issued on the last day that SCOTUS issues opinions for the Oct 2022 term?", "slug": "will-an-opinion-for-303-creative-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaggieDelano/will-an-opinion-for-303-creative-be", "pool": {"NO": 855.1397473542011, "YES": 19.551144455784083}, "probability": 0.9852873002606336, "p": 0.6049159862230884, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1939.1520535884883, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688137359206, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688137340002, "lastBetTime": 1688137339882, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Outstanding cases here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.scotusblog.com/statistics/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.scotusblog.com/statistics/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Official schedule: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Typically, controversial cases (a subset of the ones in red on SCOTUS blog) are announced later. The question is whether this case is sufficiently controversial compared with the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if an opinion for this case is announced on the same day where the final opinion of the October 2022 term is announced. Resolves NO if the opinion is announced on a prior day. Close time is the end of the month. I will extend it into July if needed. I may resolve sooner if the opinion is announced before the last day or once the final opinion is announced. I may bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["scotus"], "textDescription": "Outstanding cases here: https://www.scotusblog.com/statistics/\n\nOfficial schedule: https://www.supremecourt.gov/\n\nTypically, controversial cases (a subset of the ones in red on SCOTUS blog) are announced later. The question is whether this case is sufficiently controversial compared with the others.\n\nResolves YES if an opinion for this case is announced on the same day where the final opinion of the October 2022 term is announced. Resolves NO if the opinion is announced on a prior day. Close time is the end of the month. I will extend it into July if needed. I may resolve sooner if the opinion is announced before the last day or once the final opinion is announced. I may bet in this market."}, {"id": "x0p9XfObvDatjssmElyA", "creatorId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "creatorUsername": "StopPunting", "creatorName": "Stop Punting", "createdTime": 1701729858817, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FStoppunting%2FU_8wwZ-g5O.jpg?alt=media&token=c92d2477-27aa-4e8b-9dd4-50d1db23bb5f", "closeTime": 1703994859806, "question": "Will Manifold correctly predict the The Destiny Awards 2023 (TDA2023) - Employee of the Year?", "slug": "will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-318377f3fbb3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/StopPunting/will-manifold-correctly-predict-the-318377f3fbb3", "pool": {"NO": 574.0336241269655, "YES": 57.94518332375887}, "probability": 0.93, "p": 0.5728524852628586, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 733.4431674198631, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703994859806, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "mezmUpPpyxarKrHxAs0k07Y1bVc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703994951484, "lastBetTime": 1703994545524, "lastCommentTime": 1703994949794, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/jojomonsta/tda23-employee-of-the-year", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"Other\" counts as any other person in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Please no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/StopPunting/884a6f95d25c.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=dRM22X7yGQOqjUjGK%2Fq4XXbZMay%2BrNYmZh2%2FjJccCygNZ4XnJIhIAvFt3VPapOH3XJETSfBzcjgpP8DQTlZzlFPi%2FOQoToF%2BHnG23pXoAplfrl3YUbc67bVHTKKyyJR5kyLThy5HyprK6xGayYIPFk0xWTou1XuCH47n1ICdnb%2FZxgsmkQUuNKEvZzDQvlOcNgDVFLvxFxuZQiBi6HgG6koTmyyB2oH5wwS5%2F18uBbzedLjW%2FsH5cMcczh15rNNl4CHvFlNolecox4b9BRaAMXO9sDYsTQFKNZj0M2AiFk9aAW6YV69oCdHJUK0c9i6VK54hbC61c29sSlMdr0uYzg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "the-destiny-awards-2023", "the-destiny-awards-2023-e70b6f70a125", "debate", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Using this market for reference as it has the most traders as of creating this question:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/jojomonsta/tda23-employee-of-the-year)Let me know if anybody has an issue with using that Market instead of another.\n\nThis will be resolved by looking at what the final percentages are before the results are displayed on stream (it should be obvious the moment of reveal if I'm not able to capture every question beforehand). If the entry with the highest percentage on Manifold wins, this resolves as \"YES\", any other and it will resolve as \"NO\".\n\n\"Other\" counts as any other person in the world (unless the winner was split out from it beforehand)\n\nUsing Manifold percentages at 7EST 12/30, according to this tweet:\n\nhttps://twitter.com/Destiny_Awards/status/1740165948274045046\n\nPlease no insider trading from anybody helping with/compiling the votes for the Destiny awards, that would be lame (plus I'll call you out as it will be obvious).\n\nI will not bet on this market for fairness since I still want to bet on the main markets."}, {"id": "TJeERYWJNXN0xjhkno3q", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1689890344563, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1690075378284, "question": "Will Nathaniel Wood beat Andre Fili?", "slug": "will-nathaniel-wood-beat-andre-fili", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-nathaniel-wood-beat-andre-fili", "pool": {"NO": 2201.5449900552653, "YES": 27.230724544497683}, "probability": 0.9963227309825636, "p": 0.7701807547350558, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3157.674743321695, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690075378284, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690061315692, "lastBetTime": 1690061315565, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Nathaniel Wood wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Andre Fili wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["mma"], "textDescription": "Nathaniel Wood and Andre Fili are scheduled to fight on July 22nd, 2023 at a UFC event in London, England. \n\nIf Nathaniel Wood wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Andre Fili wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "h9bt7ZiQm0fVvoKsC9Ij", "creatorId": "MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2", "creatorUsername": "CodeandSolder", "creatorName": "CodeandSolder", "createdTime": 1693504582718, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCodeandSolder%2FI6f_4SkWX_.png?alt=media&token=0713659e-84a5-4ac7-9113-e028e43cc678", "closeTime": 1710544413093, "question": "Will SCOTUS affirm in Pulsifer v. United States (unclear criteria in federal sentencing laws)?", "slug": "will-scouts-affirm-in-pulsifer-v-un", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CodeandSolder/will-scouts-affirm-in-pulsifer-v-un", "pool": {"NO": 1316.6729444290877, "YES": 30.894298615371092}, "probability": 0.9879804092545039, "p": 0.6585486764628373, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1917.9889887947215, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710544413093, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "MV9fTVHetcfp3h6CVYzpypIsbyN2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710544413843, "lastBetTime": 1710517998171, "lastCommentTime": 1710544404917, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PARTIAL AFFIRMATION COUNTS IF THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SEMANTICAL, SEE COMMENTS", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://ballotpedia.org/Pulsifer_v._United_States", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ballotpedia.org/Pulsifer_v._United_States", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pulsifer v. United States is a case involving the First Step Act of 2018 and 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 3553(f)(1). The justices were asked to interpret the federal sentencing laws that allow some nonviolent offenders convicted of drug crimes to avoid mandatory minimum sentences. The provision of the sentencing law requires that a convicted defendant \u201cdoes not have \u2014 (A) more than 4 criminal history points, excluding any criminal history points resulting from a 1-point offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines; (B) a prior 3-point offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines; and (C) a prior 2-point violent offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines.\u201d In order to calculate a defendant's criminal history points, the United States Sentencing Commission adds points using the following guidelines:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment exceeding one year and one month", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment of at least sixty days not counted in (a)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 point for each prior sentence not counted in (a) or (b), up to a total of 4 points for this subsection", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 points if the defendant committed the instant offense while under any criminal justice sentence, including probation, parole, supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or escape status", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 point for each prior sentence resulting from a conviction of a crime of violence that did not receive any points under (a), (b), or (c) above because such sentence was treated as a single sentence, up to a total of 3 points for this subsection", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pulslifer has asked whether a defendant is ineligible for relief under the sentencing guidelines if the defendant\u2019s criminal history includes any of the disqualifying criteria or if they are ineligible only if all criteria are included.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The provision has been reviewed by the Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuit Courts. The Seventh and Eighth Circuits found that the and in the provision meant or, so any disqualifying criteria in a convicted defendant\u2019s criminal record would render them ineligible for relief. The Ninth Circuit found that and meant and, requiring all disqualifying criteria in a convicted defendant\u2019s criminal record to be present to render them ineligible for relief. The Eleventh Circuit Court will also review the provision.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["court-cases", "supreme-court", "scotus"], "textDescription": "PARTIAL AFFIRMATION COUNTS IF THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS SEMANTICAL, SEE COMMENTS\n\nhttps://ballotpedia.org/Pulsifer_v._United_States\n\nBackground\n\nPulsifer v. United States is a case involving the First Step Act of 2018 and 18 U.S.C. \u00a7 3553(f)(1). The justices were asked to interpret the federal sentencing laws that allow some nonviolent offenders convicted of drug crimes to avoid mandatory minimum sentences. The provision of the sentencing law requires that a convicted defendant \u201cdoes not have \u2014 (A) more than 4 criminal history points, excluding any criminal history points resulting from a 1-point offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines; (B) a prior 3-point offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines; and (C) a prior 2-point violent offense, as determined under the sentencing guidelines.\u201d In order to calculate a defendant's criminal history points, the United States Sentencing Commission adds points using the following guidelines:\n\n3 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment exceeding one year and one month\n\n2 points for each prior sentence of imprisonment of at least sixty days not counted in (a)\n\n1 point for each prior sentence not counted in (a) or (b), up to a total of 4 points for this subsection\n\n2 points if the defendant committed the instant offense while under any criminal justice sentence, including probation, parole, supervised release, imprisonment, work release, or escape status\n\n1 point for each prior sentence resulting from a conviction of a crime of violence that did not receive any points under (a), (b), or (c) above because such sentence was treated as a single sentence, up to a total of 3 points for this subsection\n\nPulslifer has asked whether a defendant is ineligible for relief under the sentencing guidelines if the defendant\u2019s criminal history includes any of the disqualifying criteria or if they are ineligible only if all criteria are included.\n\nThe provision has been reviewed by the Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Circuit Courts. The Seventh and Eighth Circuits found that the and in the provision meant or, so any disqualifying criteria in a convicted defendant\u2019s criminal record would render them ineligible for relief. The Ninth Circuit found that and meant and, requiring all disqualifying criteria in a convicted defendant\u2019s criminal record to be present to render them ineligible for relief. The Eleventh Circuit Court will also review the provision."}, {"id": "dziHxLRV8OScVe7ydV2h", "creatorId": "uIA81X2m3aVLEl1DqDBJfR1nJ0n2", "creatorUsername": "NicoDelon", "creatorName": "Nico", "createdTime": 1684971076290, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNicoDelon%2FGEAVsj5YYL.png?alt=media&token=869ac619-c18c-4648-b7d0-430cf8822ebb", "closeTime": 1685159940000, "question": "Will Ron DeSantis hold his first presidential campaign rally in May 2023?", "slug": "will-ron-desantis-hold-his-first-pr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/will-ron-desantis-hold-his-first-pr", "pool": {"NO": 517.7931232336239, "YES": 91.95006406585081}, "probability": 0.8634733316755179, "p": 0.5289956568330301, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 718.6769372860995, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685532886826, "resolutionProbability": 0.86, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685155010264, "lastBetTime": 1685155010087, "lastCommentTime": 1685043541008, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Campaign rally = event related to the presidential campaign of the candidate. It has to involve a large crowd and last sufficiently long. I'll exercise discretion but mostly rely on press reports to determine whether an event is a rally. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ron-desantis", "2024-us-presidential-election"], "textDescription": "Campaign rally = event related to the presidential campaign of the candidate. It has to involve a large crowd and last sufficiently long. I'll exercise discretion but mostly rely on press reports to determine whether an event is a rally. "}, {"id": "3Eyye13TvWvY0IdoPcI3", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1687559818607, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1689479940000, "question": "Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) be arrested by July 15?", "slug": "will-prigozhin-leader-of-wagner-gro-c7c8fb950739", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-prigozhin-leader-of-wagner-gro-c7c8fb950739", "pool": {"NO": 921.0624050292445, "YES": 26206.18528009364}, "probability": 0.009385820264011403, "p": 0.21233592644107466, "totalLiquidity": 1970, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 47708.535189731556, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689606566080, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 113, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689603151968, "lastBetTime": 1689476332731, "lastCommentTime": 1689603145991, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Yevgeny Prigozhin is arrested by July 15 2023 (11:59 ET), otherwise NO. Resolves based on consensus of reliable media reporting.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group is being investigated for inciting mutiny after accusing the Russian military of a launching a deadly missile strike on his troops.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "fc8c99ca-834b-49c4-8db6-49cefd95dfb0", "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256", "image": "https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/branded_news/1652F/production/_130193419_f9da78c073f11274271fa35f5bcc60189f4d59140_0_2560_14401000x563.jpg", "title": "Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging \u2018armed mutiny\u2019", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Moscow opens an investigation into Yevgeny Prigozhin, in an astonishing escalation of infighting.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also see related questions with different deadlines to the right.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "yevgeney-prigozhin"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Yevgeny Prigozhin is arrested by July 15 2023 (11:59 ET), otherwise NO. Resolves based on consensus of reliable media reporting.\n\nhttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256\n\nThe head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group is being investigated for inciting mutiny after accusing the Russian military of a launching a deadly missile strike on his troops.\n\n[link preview]Also see related questions with different deadlines to the right."}, {"id": "Tw0R7vpaMLO7Oz66P6T2", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707944147691, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1708087800000, "question": "Will flight AF 1781 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-16 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-14f95b44a370", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1781-from-london-to-14f95b44a370", "pool": {"NO": 110.606093383773, "YES": 106.56931018133356}, "probability": 0.27706887409186554, "p": 0.26968379673287557, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1708178104034, "resolutionProbability": 0.28, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1708178104259, "lastBetTime": 1708079424513, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-16 12:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-16 - 14:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a006:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a015:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=16", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1781?year=2024&month=02&date=16", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1781", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fdba26da92bad.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1781 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-16 12:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-16 - 14:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a006:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a015:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "SCYbiXUQQLzhiyN5oij8", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1704204562432, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1706828340000, "question": "Poland: Will Krzysztof Bosak stay the Vice-Marshal of Sejm by February 1?", "slug": "poland-will-krzysztof-bosak-stay-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/poland-will-krzysztof-bosak-stay-th", "pool": {"NO": 6283.268049404144, "YES": 80.64156345534664}, "probability": 0.997136727171511, "p": 0.8171701298055339, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6305.849209534959, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1706888238764, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706888239129, "lastBetTime": 1706813986825, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve YES if Krzysztof Bosak is still designated Vice-Marshal of Sejm on February 1 2024.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If he is removed from the position, this will resolve NO", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8E2o1jJ-rX.png?alt=media&token=a6f76f0b-3ff0-458f-bc12-5f687b05a581", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2F47a26d2d76ac.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["central-europe", "poland", "leaders"], "textDescription": "This will resolve YES if Krzysztof Bosak is still designated Vice-Marshal of Sejm on February 1 2024.\n\nIf he is removed from the position, this will resolve NO\n\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "YCmPSrEHcYDGo9zA1LoO", "creatorId": "wDBYhUbkEXVWOdvIpkXSs712u9o2", "creatorUsername": "Lifejacker", "creatorName": "Lifejacker", "createdTime": 1670724608665, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLifejacker%2Fuhmqgej6KA.jpg?alt=media&token=1f93aecc-f20d-41f1-94f0-c0fe63e428e9", "closeTime": 1671719917319, "question": "Will any of the Forbes top 4 positions by net worth change before the end of 2022?", "slug": "will-any-of-the-forbes-top-4-positi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Lifejacker/will-any-of-the-forbes-top-4-positi", "pool": {"NO": 1816.4628044173298, "YES": 103.0026909650231}, "probability": 0.9891498462193924, "p": 0.8379122218142395, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6337.458254919045, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671719917319, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671717790581, "lastBetTime": 1671717786657, "lastCommentTime": 1671717738585, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Top net worth leaderboard as of Dec 10, 2022", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FcEpFORxJr9.png?alt=media&token=e2713391-31da-4095-bfc2-585927097d84", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Swapping positions within the top 4 counts as a change (will resolve \"Yes\" in that case)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Temporary position change counts as long as someone provides a screenshot in the comment as evidence that the position changed at some point.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will any of the Forbes top 4 positions by net worth change before the end of 2022?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F0EDS6Ncb4-.png?alt=media&token=aef6c42f-6670-42fd-9485-9d1de2c91254", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "wall-street-bets", "global-macro", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "world-default", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Top net worth leaderboard as of Dec 10, 2022\n\nhttps://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/\n\n[image]Swapping positions within the top 4 counts as a change (will resolve \"Yes\" in that case)\nTemporary position change counts as long as someone provides a screenshot in the comment as evidence that the position changed at some point.\n\nWill any of the Forbes top 4 positions by net worth change before the end of 2022?"}, {"id": "r4H9RtKCL3kLTeJZHqtx", "creatorId": "Y8xXwCCYe3cBCW5XeU8MxykuPAY2", "creatorUsername": "Jenny", "creatorName": "Jenny", "createdTime": 1645641526109, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJenny%2Flove-images%2FyYxFwtOBjr.jpg?alt=media&token=16473d3a-0b90-42b3-9dc6-e1d7e0e02ed0", "closeTime": 1646110740000, "question": "Will ManifoldMarkets add a way to search for markets from the home page in February?", "slug": "will-manifoldmarkets-add-a-way-to-s", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Jenny/will-manifoldmarkets-add-a-way-to-s", "pool": {"NO": 100, "YES": 100}, "probability": 0.03823305832726657, "p": 0.038233058327266575, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 670.1819543967298, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1646156009606, "resolutionProbability": 0.038233058327266575, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1645641526109, "description": "Currently if you want to search for a specific market you first have to click on \"Markets\" and then use the search bar. Will MM add a way to search for markets directly from the home page, before the end of the month?\nIf, for some reason, this search function is only available to logged in users, I'll count it as partially implemented and resolve PROB 50%.\nIf it is implemented fully, I will resolve YES as soon as possible, without waiting for the end of the month.", "textDescription": "Currently if you want to search for a specific market you first have to click on \"Markets\" and then use the search bar. Will MM add a way to search for markets directly from the home page, before the end of the month?\nIf, for some reason, this search function is only available to logged in users, I'll count it as partially implemented and resolve PROB 50%.\nIf it is implemented fully, I will resolve YES as soon as possible, without waiting for the end of the month."}, {"id": "hg1a6UVaDHhiWDwJvzLn", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1693561324463, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1696197540000, "question": "September 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000?", "slug": "september-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-400", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/september-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-400", "pool": {"NO": 135.98701904802147, "YES": 11445.462565934946}, "probability": 0.0016740039633078847, "p": 0.12367581847271394, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12100.916412038869, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696197998321, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696179318547, "lastBetTime": 1696174909291, "lastCommentTime": 1696179317553, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If in September 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FSILB2dLrJX.png?alt=media&token=3d8b0f80-8285-4843-8fe9-c2132372d641", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u27a1\ufe0f check markets at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomek's Specials", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/tomeks-specials", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": "! \ud83d\ude0e ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["bitcoin", "crypto-prices", "crypto-speculation"], "textDescription": "If in September 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES\n\n[image]---\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f check markets at Tomek's Specials! \ud83d\ude0e "}, {"id": "UGQbDfucar8zCZVGlqn9", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1710525114577, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1713308218262, "question": "Champions League quarter finals - will Barcelona qualify over PSG?", "slug": "champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021", "pool": {"NO": 103.98339397944362, "YES": 4273.5395030024}, "probability": 0.010080553678692233, "p": 0.29503609258749497, "totalLiquidity": 540, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7429.13088165068, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713308218262, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713308218262, "lastBetTime": 1713301384274, "lastCommentTime": 1713308208548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arsenal vs Bayern Munich ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "cXzeuoPuOHnoxFoqms4s", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Atl\u00e9tico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "NQ2zzCSFD9ODbQHgdzVp", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Real Madrid vs Manchester City - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "kIbIcSAMQlkyOsPNhBj9", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PSG vs Barcelona", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Barcelona qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Paris Saint Germain qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "g2yWAH8zbwBhaggVKpAe", "label": "/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["football", "uefa", "uefa-champions-league"], "textDescription": "The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:\n\nArsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil \n\nAtl\u00e9tico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d \n\nReal Madrid vs Manchester City - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c \n\nPSG vs Barcelona\n\nThe two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April.\n\nIf Barcelona qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES.\n\nIf Paris Saint Germain qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO.\n\nBet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi "}, {"id": "PnH858mUpc4jputj9q0W", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679685650184, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680133558653, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Right-Wing Rhetoric On Trans People\" reach 75k views by 3/31 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-rightwing-rhetori", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-rightwing-rhetori", "pool": {"NO": 12568, "YES": 24.40479068354398}, "probability": 0.999381236869587, "p": 0.7582372286181617, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12438, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680133558653, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218557448, "lastBetTime": 1680133554491, "lastCommentTime": 1680133430651, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/UAw7ZZOD4p4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/UAw7ZZOD4p4", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FUVcsZH06HG.png?alt=media&token=ecd03cd8-317d-4f75-954d-ffd60a433764", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "trans-questions", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/UAw7ZZOD4p4\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nI reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders."}, {"id": "upoDRNQnsrUoJYCPZIo7", "creatorId": "hqdXgp0jK2YMMhPs067eFK4afEH3", "creatorUsername": "Eliza", "creatorName": "Eliza", "createdTime": 1685558698092, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZMXWH5aYeQ7DOOhcWF8PL8YW6BbDKyubaXGMnT=s96-c", "closeTime": 1690134637943, "question": "Will 5 or more riders wear the yellow jersey in the 2023 Tour de France?", "slug": "will-5-or-more-riders-wear-the-yell", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-5-or-more-riders-wear-the-yell", "pool": {"NO": 55.16417445387042, "YES": 9329.034271846964}, "probability": 0.003346388322117983, "p": 0.36217219438232917, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12110.988057116261, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690134647313, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690134488883, "lastBetTime": 1690134488722, "lastCommentTime": 1687952029326, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FMerCqu6v8n.png?alt=media&token=df22f9af-2f34-4e3c-a204-3fa60253568d", "groupSlugs": ["peloton-discord", "road-bicycle-racing", "sports-default", "tour-de-france"], "textDescription": "The rider must actually wear the jersey, either in the award ceremony at the end of a stage or in the race the next day.\n\nThe last time 5 riders wore the yellow jersey was 2020, and before that 2013. Most other years in that time span have seen 4 riders wear the yellow jersey."}, {"id": "h5fk3PMMsgK0B2hEqXHG", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706389980142, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706436900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1780 from Paris to London departing on 2024-01-28 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-dfd4e8bb1ba3", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1780-from-paris-to-l-dfd4e8bb1ba3", "pool": {"NO": 78.75260345312991, "YES": 170.00000000000006}, "probability": 0.077111599358035, "p": 0.15280510240005052, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 80, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706475666773, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706475667010, "lastBetTime": 1706432859537, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-28 10:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 12:15 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1780?year=2024&month=01&date=28", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1780", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F6d17e849ff77.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1780 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-28 10:15 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-28 - 12:15 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:15 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:15 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:15 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Hdd5IkCULrAkDAzeOpzt", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702921586196, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703012400000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on December 19 than it closed on December 18?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-49ecba2ac360", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-49ecba2ac360", "pool": {"NO": 1325.8219081726068, "YES": 121.70153913781628}, "probability": 0.9673447032088188, "p": 0.7311237739397295, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1338.0102030610203, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703023407026, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703023399227, "lastBetTime": 1703011092779, "lastCommentTime": 1703023398703, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fbb823c03a348.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "economics-default", "sccsq4", "finance", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "Hmol3BIRh9COlYb5CMs7", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1679866190302, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will the US ban TikTok in 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-ban-tiktok-in-2023", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-in-2023", "pool": {"NO": 501.5064396444841, "YES": 5022.720678094994}, "probability": 0.02893323655557429, "p": 0.22982605536866332, "totalLiquidity": 890, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 15428.880223636588, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704136058256, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "uniqueBettorCount": 46, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704136058711, "lastBetTime": 1703705486784, "lastCommentTime": 1679938252216, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American can do none of the following [edited to clearer language from the Metaculus comments]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "similarly for the iOS App Store", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FhrV56sYDGU.png?alt=media&token=eaf4ec31-7b8f-46d4-898d-48138469e743", "groupSlugs": ["tiktok", "metaculus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves according to https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14062/tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024/:\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American can do none of the following [edited to clearer language from the Metaculus comments]\n\ndownload the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)\n\nsimilarly for the iOS App Store\n\nuse the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)\n\nThe above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify."}, {"id": "jcskuclg1F0pYmeIfwGG", "creatorId": "eAB6KSR3CTgm9eM2HL1CEkonnAp1", "creatorUsername": "A", "creatorName": "A", "createdTime": 1683899457215, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAlan%2Fhexagon.png?alt=media&token=3b2e69be-a15c-4221-a471-35991290f170", "closeTime": 1685275242849, "question": "Will I have at least M1000 profit from Mira's arbitrage bot at the end of August 2023?", "slug": "will-i-have-at-least-m1000-profit-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/A/will-i-have-at-least-m1000-profit-f", "pool": {"NO": 48.00235532746999, "YES": 255.94236739685638}, "probability": 0.1508226384623361, "p": 0.4863880414401907, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 581.7154373116871, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1685275242849, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692019806027, "lastBetTime": 1685262143803, "lastCommentTime": 1692019803650, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See the embedded market for context. Will my investment there of M5010 produce a profit of at least M1000 for me when this market closes?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The profit doesn't necessarily need to be paid out, if it just shows up on the virtual account statements that will be sufficient (unless I have reason to think that those statements are erroneous). If it's partially paid out and partially remains in the virtual account I'll add those together. Both active and passive profit are included, if applicable, as well as any other trading styles added later on.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the total profit accrued at that time is greater or equal to M1000. Resolves NO if the total profit accrued is less than M1000. Resolves NO if I have reason to believe that the virtual account balance is materially incorrect by a large amount (e.g. if Mira steals all the mana invested -- I'm not expecting that to happen of course!). Resolves NO if Mira cancels the investment opportunity and refunds my mana (unless the refund is larger than my investment by at least M1000). Does not resolve early if my profit reaches M1000 (since it may go back down before August 31) but may resolve early if one of the other criteria is met.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not attempt to manipulate this market, and I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if it appears to be creating bad incentives or if requested by Mira.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/investment-round-arbitrage-strategi", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FT0dYAa2h4s.png?alt=media&token=45cf3394-129d-472e-8c8c-b6c6471e69ca", "groupSlugs": ["trading-bots"], "textDescription": "See the embedded market for context. Will my investment there of M5010 produce a profit of at least M1000 for me when this market closes?\n\nThe profit doesn't necessarily need to be paid out, if it just shows up on the virtual account statements that will be sufficient (unless I have reason to think that those statements are erroneous). If it's partially paid out and partially remains in the virtual account I'll add those together. Both active and passive profit are included, if applicable, as well as any other trading styles added later on.\n\nResolves YES if the total profit accrued at that time is greater or equal to M1000. Resolves NO if the total profit accrued is less than M1000. Resolves NO if I have reason to believe that the virtual account balance is materially incorrect by a large amount (e.g. if Mira steals all the mana invested -- I'm not expecting that to happen of course!). Resolves NO if Mira cancels the investment opportunity and refunds my mana (unless the refund is larger than my investment by at least M1000). Does not resolve early if my profit reaches M1000 (since it may go back down before August 31) but may resolve early if one of the other criteria is met.\n\nI will not attempt to manipulate this market, and I reserve the right to resolve it N/A if it appears to be creating bad incentives or if requested by Mira.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/investment-round-arbitrage-strategi)"}, {"id": "Uj4VpjfgWxdwwek3b9UJ", "creatorId": "XPWchsMSh2XbzWq27NXphkn6PGh1", "creatorUsername": "Schwabilismus", "creatorName": "Schwabilismus", "createdTime": 1687550957559, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSchwabilismus%2Fqo4pIJCti7.jpg?alt=media&token=fb8c78ea-1d38-4f4b-87ac-9e48249d8120", "closeTime": 1688162340000, "question": "Is Prigozhin leading a coup right now?", "slug": "is-prigozhin-leading-a-coup-right-n", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/is-prigozhin-leading-a-coup-right-n", "pool": {"NO": 1076.9471543488485, "YES": 2123.0033035706274}, "probability": 0.6658980140959017, "p": 0.797120174965762, "totalLiquidity": 1990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 45456.06010984733, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1688323599933, "resolutionProbability": 0.67, "uniqueBettorCount": 142, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688323596755, "lastBetTime": 1688155133494, "lastCommentTime": 1688323592789, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russian ministry of defense. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will try to find better sources than this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/update-2-russian-mercenary-boss-vows-to-avenge-alleged-army-attack-moscow-denies-accusation/ar-AA1cXjLX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/update-2-russian-mercenary-boss-vows-to-avenge-alleged-army-attack-moscow-denies-accusation/ar-AA1cXjLX", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is a translation of Prigozhin last love letter to Moscow:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"PMC Wagner Commanders\u2019 Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They neglect the lives of soldiers. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "They forgot the word \u201cjustice\u201d, and we will bring it back.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "I\u2019m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "I\u2019m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And we will return to the frontline.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Justice in the Army will be restored. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And after this, justice for the whole of Russia.\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves early if there is widespread media consensus for either side.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise resolves according to my gut feeling about this having been a coup or a false alarm.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edit: Due to this market getting traction I sold all my shares so as to not seem biased when resolving this.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "textDescription": "Rumors are going round that Wagner units are attempting a coup against the russian ministry of defense. \n\nI will try to find better sources than this.\n\nhttps://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/update-2-russian-mercenary-boss-vows-to-avenge-alleged-army-attack-moscow-denies-accusation/ar-AA1cXjLX\n\nHere is a translation of Prigozhin last love letter to Moscow:\n\n\"PMC Wagner Commanders\u2019 Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. \n\nThey neglect the lives of soldiers. \n\nThey forgot the word \u201cjustice\u201d, and we will bring it back. \n\nThose, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished.\n\n I\u2019m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.\n\n I\u2019m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. \n\nAfter we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. \n\nAnd we will return to the frontline. \n\nJustice in the Army will be restored. \n\nAnd after this, justice for the whole of Russia.\"\n\nResolves early if there is widespread media consensus for either side.\n\nOtherwise resolves according to my gut feeling about this having been a coup or a false alarm.\n\nEdit: Due to this market getting traction I sold all my shares so as to not seem biased when resolving this."}, {"id": "UWiaWl4GrjNfNFFjPc5c", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1668117603818, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1672434000000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $5.25 anytime before the end of 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-2cb8c6bb1591", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-2cb8c6bb1591", "pool": {"NO": 85.40052980652636, "YES": 1855.8362042176466}, "probability": 0.01049181812125532, "p": 0.1872659775810076, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1881.0714269583575, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672434321227, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672433981938, "lastBetTime": 1672433981812, "lastCommentTime": 1668117709990, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FC3eftdb0ck.png?alt=media&token=e93c5b11-4842-4046-955f-3ad3a99e1433", "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "n1Lr6sU3mK6EtSp2EHJE", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1694414938285, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1699212582979, "question": "Will Esteban Ocon finish in the points at the 2023 Formula 1 Brazilian Grand Prix (Interlagos)?", "slug": "will-esteban-ocon-finish-in-the-poi-841a8dd8995f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-esteban-ocon-finish-in-the-poi-841a8dd8995f", "pool": {"NO": 11485.50018954309, "YES": 1.6507329499072512}, "probability": 0.9998945495660957, "p": 0.5767736637552909, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13747.88595953362, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699212582979, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699212580193, "lastBetTime": 1699212580077, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the spirit of the question.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A points finish is any place in the top 10 positions during the actual race (not sprint race). The race will take place on November 5, 2023.\n\nIf a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.\n\nAny uncontemplated edge cases will resolve using my best judgment based on the spirit of the question. Arguments that rely on technicalities like \"the question said 'will they win on October 2' but technically the race ended at 12:01AM October 3\" will not be received well."}, {"id": "HXFSuP65AuKpKQUEuiuG", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707191948477, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707276387034, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb 6?", "slug": "will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-pittsbu", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-winnipeg-jets-beat-pittsbu", "pool": {"NO": 10.594743697584795, "YES": 1616.184684380998}, "probability": 0.004278716011960147, "p": 0.39595481613297606, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1562.8344799161014, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707276387034, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707276387639, "lastBetTime": 1707273472891, "lastCommentTime": 1707276366054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=jets+vs+penguins#sie=m;/g/11kqmsgt98;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2Fbcd2bc1f136a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "winnipeg-jets", "sports-default", "yuna-league-beta", "pittsburgh-penguins", "ice-hockey"], "textDescription": "Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Winnipeg Jets win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "sRSmHE73wPrYQy8T5M8y", "creatorId": "mVIYDvfnLkNJAOCOpZtGqOE53fh1", "creatorUsername": "dL1GH7", "creatorName": "dL1GH7", "createdTime": 1668557002896, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FdL1GH7%2FfPTZ94CTfp.jpg?alt=media&token=af5aea2e-291e-437f-b89c-f3a9ab763b31", "closeTime": 1672700141333, "question": "Will Destiny play Factorio in Jan 2023?", "slug": "will-destiny-play-factorio-in-jan-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dL1GH7/will-destiny-play-factorio-in-jan-2", "pool": {"NO": 1565.8257633697183, "YES": 368.7519044549967}, "probability": 0.9405206888614033, "p": 0.788308681177677, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3427.431306032061, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1672700141333, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672672550599, "lastBetTime": 1672672550501, "lastCommentTime": 1668558069677, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A dupe of this one but more specific. Will he play at all in January 2023?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/Ravaen/will-destiny-still-be-playing-facto", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ravaen/will-destiny-still-be-playing-facto", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "YES: He will play at least 1 time in Jan 2023", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO: He won't play Factorio at all in Jan 2023", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F_BRWA4jCXc.png?alt=media&token=07f00581-c944-4680-b0b1-5214e190b397", "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "A dupe of this one but more specific. Will he play at all in January 2023?\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/Ravaen/will-destiny-still-be-playing-facto\n\nYES: He will play at least 1 time in Jan 2023\nNO: He won't play Factorio at all in Jan 2023"}, {"id": "rH52TXza3Yjj5XC3XnvY", "creatorId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "creatorUsername": "DismalScientist", "creatorName": "DismalScientist", "createdTime": 1674035212472, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDismalScientist%2F_trI0_uAPH.png?alt=media&token=35fa7626-92cc-4b8b-8b16-0ce5136b681e", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will OpenPhilanthropy make a grant in the area of Telecommunications in low-income countries in 2023?", "slug": "will-openphilanthropy-make-a-grant", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-openphilanthropy-make-a-grant", "pool": {"NO": 81.75745024807125, "YES": 862.749260328988}, "probability": 0.04814255733097309, "p": 0.3479910426260588, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 795.8286706816858, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704133466461, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "resolverId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704133466761, "lastBetTime": 1703272250548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here is their shallow investigation: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H6GhXkbfAy949xhGf/open-philanthropy-shallow-investigation-telecommunications", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H6GhXkbfAy949xhGf/open-philanthropy-shallow-investigation-telecommunications", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFFgwmjhJZH.png?alt=media&token=62221b37-9b03-43f9-a909-95f2b3f618d1", "groupSlugs": ["effective-altruism", "open-philanthropy", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Here is their shallow investigation: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H6GhXkbfAy949xhGf/open-philanthropy-shallow-investigation-telecommunications"}, {"id": "cUuTkgbO5DPr5Py4zibk", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1685487850053, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1687380683546, "question": "June 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $30,000?", "slug": "june-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-30000", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/june-2023-will-bitcoin-hit-30000", "pool": {"NO": 20716.33240358179, "YES": 59.77369330784153}, "probability": 0.9992252864805039, "p": 0.7882034696132246, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21733.423473401555, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1687380683546, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1687370488633, "lastBetTime": 1687370487452, "lastCommentTime": 1687365342513, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If in June 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FkDj5i8vazz.png?alt=media&token=faf6f7c4-9b10-4ab2-955a-4bdc52230717", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "---", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u27a1\ufe0f check markets at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Tomek's Specials", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/tomeks-specials", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "! \ud83d\ude0e ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fl1o3AoGNZm.png?alt=media&token=32d5de4e-8b07-4058-9994-3213b8a14443", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation"], "textDescription": "If in June 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $30,000 or more, this will resolve YES\n\n[image]---\n\n\u27a1\ufe0f check markets at Tomek's Specials! \ud83d\ude0e "}, {"id": "OcYKvN9WmrTJUTaIZMLj", "creatorId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "creatorUsername": "SneakySly", "creatorName": "SneakySly", "createdTime": 1690222597638, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e", "closeTime": 1704533015149, "question": "Will 1000+ people die from heat waves in the US this year?", "slug": "will-1000-people-die-from-heat-wave", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-1000-people-die-from-heat-wave", "pool": {"NO": 2050.480290961, "YES": 138.43574643693827}, "probability": 0.9568158760252542, "p": 0.5993397951025361, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3496.975836438221, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704533015149, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "resolverId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704533015740, "lastBetTime": 1704532998622, "lastCommentTime": 1704532985449, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves YES if 1000 or more people die in American heat waves this year.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Otherwise resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related to this market:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-500-people-die-from-heat-waves?r=U25lYWt5U2x5", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "climate", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_North_American_heat_waves\n\nResolves YES if 1000 or more people die in American heat waves this year.\n\nOtherwise resolves NO. \n\nRelated to this market:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-500-people-die-from-heat-waves?r=U25lYWt5U2x5)"}, {"id": "hWDNAJJMrTGJv6vPpjQd", "creatorId": "K0RuUaKElPTtvwY5nCNm6VZrxUc2", "creatorUsername": "EliGaultney", "creatorName": "Eli Gaultney", "createdTime": 1655401175455, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikNvh2CzJfm0pxKrMLcXDGcegWRjIRoPQ4uRqTNiE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Will the FBI, NSA, or CIA have another major cybersecurity-related document leak before December 31st, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-fbi-nsa-or-cia-have-anothe", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EliGaultney/will-the-fbi-nsa-or-cia-have-anothe", "pool": {"NO": 261.7906340710647, "YES": 1279.843805265872}, "probability": 0.030903691483837276, "p": 0.1348733048193345, "totalLiquidity": 381.2, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1313.9138278515868, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1673108956921, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671494868619, "lastBetTime": 1671494868445, "description": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if at least 2 of the following sources carry the same story about a leak of documents related to their cybersecurity tooling or actions before the end of the year:\n\nNY Times, Washington Post, Philip DeFranco, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Politico, the Guardian.", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default"], "textDescription": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if at least 2 of the following sources carry the same story about a leak of documents related to their cybersecurity tooling or actions before the end of the year:\n\nNY Times, Washington Post, Philip DeFranco, Wall Street Journal, Al Jazeera, Politico, the Guardian."}, {"id": "0bqpJ0HTg15PsB4dX2I2", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1682351608247, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1685823652020, "question": "Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of October 2023?", "slug": "will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4", "pool": {"NO": 15666.720326955172, "YES": 311.0142925483051}, "probability": 0.9978286322463427, "p": 0.901212422596095, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 18176.862051772885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1685823652020, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685823644370, "lastBetTime": 1685823644126, "lastCommentTime": 1685816106891, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Experts and government sources agree that the \"x date\" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "uTxCOBPwVZ8nQ8WC0hsM", "label": "/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "69D7abJaaEexCxQ2BOZB", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3szs86zpyB4QQY4zzP2S", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "Y9mpPth1JfCkwGsF2vqv", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "oXoSAEJeTXRMz1rQ5jyG", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "XiHhlCfjZZoczUwXmfMS", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0bqpJ0HTg15PsB4dX2I2", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "k4hz8D7NElcyzgN2wn7H", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of October, this market resolves to YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F4U4twiNfqo.png?alt=media&token=e4811fff-342b-4694-9d40-e37b364533df", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "mint-the-coin", "finance", "economics-default", "us-politics", "debt-ceiling"], "textDescription": "Experts and government sources agree that the \"x date\" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.\n\nAt the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised \n\nThis is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc \n\nIf the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.\n\nIf the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.\n\nIf the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of October, this market resolves to YES."}, {"id": "HtcRPh18E22ndH4MAwMO", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1696984867022, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1697051700000, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close higher on October 11th than it closed on October 10th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-a16ee3373c7c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-hi-a16ee3373c7c", "pool": {"NO": 281.24592593678284, "YES": 232.96482390128702}, "probability": 0.6695870799492257, "p": 0.6266743850754529, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1523.4500253725423, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697063807394, "resolutionProbability": 0.67, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697063803361, "lastBetTime": 1697051635028, "lastCommentTime": 1697063801722, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "VIX closes in a variable way and between 3pm to 315pm ET (700-715 UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at  315pm ", "type": "text"}, {"text": " (715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close : ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDSnvr43h7W.png?alt=media&token=835e6d51-51c7-44a7-9e26-43846e67f3ba", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets To The VIX:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at-977447d19151", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "sccsq4", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "VIX closes in a variable way and between 3pm to 315pm ET (700-715 UTC) and reports on an up to hour delay.\n\nPredictions close at  315pm  (715pm UTC)\n\nPrevious Close : \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nRelated Markets To The VIX:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at-977447d19151)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at)"}, {"id": "rz3VQ0OW1czeNnVw29jp", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1702573702078, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702656000000, "question": "Will Siemens close higher december 15th than the close of december 14th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-siemens-close-higher-december-97d5589817b8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-siemens-close-higher-december-97d5589817b8", "pool": {"NO": 389.65185697178924, "YES": 71.77717684206378}, "probability": 0.9324721013719688, "p": 0.7178073644090465, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 311.27105048426085, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702664982761, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222357053, "lastBetTime": 1702655150645, "lastCommentTime": 1702664977859, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFIiJtP5HeO.png?alt=media&token=b3112251-2f38-493d-9cc4-f6c67319c7ff", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos%2Fda60560a1afb.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Market closes around 6:00 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close: \n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SIE:ETR at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Awi1afgF9el2wP7Jnnc4", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706986095787, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707201900000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-06 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6087cd7a51de", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-6087cd7a51de", "pool": {"NO": 85.33679591248777, "YES": 133.26189272816237}, "probability": 0.07171244344672702, "p": 0.10765062596357072, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 66.64930751775451, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707244758500, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707244758710, "lastBetTime": 1707201813435, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-06 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-06 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=06", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=06", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F609ecfe264c9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-06 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-06 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "1htngAegp2Ei6yvcWeFo", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1711863762403, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1717103586726, "question": "Will Joe Biden live to see Trump convicted of a crime?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-live-to-see-trump-co", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-trump-co", "pool": {"NO": 9924.77802656184, "YES": 436.55834669034175}, "probability": 0.9849726253801088, "p": 0.7424750449305896, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11068.571384794248, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717103586726, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 57, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717103609508, "lastBetTime": 1717103572092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PRz9pDpXy8nMmx7xA2Uc", "label": "/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "yNhazeIQgDVsHCGH59BP", "label": "/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "bDf2c1BATRR6OaLz4Ehw", "label": "/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["trump-indictments", "the-life-of-biden", "donald-trump", "us-politics", "politics-default", "law-order", "crime"], "textDescription": "See: @/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th "}, {"id": "gTeU5jMWvFsYjtyzyaOn", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1711542940663, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1712268684854, "question": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "slug": "will-dow-jones-industrial-index-dec", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-dow-jones-industrial-index-dec", "pool": {"NO": 419.32610920384707, "YES": 80.95377088348373}, "probability": 0.9011739201915685, "p": 0.6377394418318505, "totalLiquidity": 160, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 275.10738958986065, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712268684854, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712268684854, "lastBetTime": 1711548277385, "lastCommentTime": 1712268676382, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Dow Jones", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Daily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Note", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["dow-jones", "stocks"], "textDescription": "Will Dow Jones Industrial Index decrease by over 1.00% on any day in April 2024?\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe official source used is *Google Finance\n\nDow Jones\n\nDaily Open/Close Time: 930am ET - 4pm ET / 230pm UTC - 9pm UTC\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the display at *Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nNote: Google Finance is not guaranteed to be perfectly up to date - the numbers occasionally stall entirely and quite often shift very slightly after the market has closed. These movements aren't usually significant but can make the difference between even 0.001% which official S&P 500 Data Source will be used in these instances for 2 sources with possibility of a third to assure official information is confirmed correct!\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n*If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/MarketWatch/WSJ/CNBC.\n"}, {"id": "TlcFEXF6lxZkutxoBpcX", "creatorId": "O8G8KCAB2GbpAv20idcoxMUjtm72", "creatorUsername": "AjayChabra", "creatorName": "Ajay", "createdTime": 1700961543647, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJgdf3DaArO99YkHapDqpYYrksb0es05RCYyUJI5LiLOoY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1701082416673, "question": "NFL Week 12 (SNF) 11/26/23 - Will BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rush for more yards than LAC Chargers RB Austin Ekeler?", "slug": "nfl-week-12-snf-112623-will-bal-rav-478051c14fb7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AjayChabra/nfl-week-12-snf-112623-will-bal-rav-478051c14fb7", "pool": {"NO": 6561.0220243187005, "YES": 42.4791405486816}, "probability": 0.9989959180198028, "p": 0.8656216394331394, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6583.386612913582, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701082416673, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206770075, "lastBetTime": 1701066079320, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Week 12 - (SNF) - 11/26/23 - Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rush for more yards than LAC Chargers RB Austin Ekeler?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023 average rush yards/game:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jackson: 54", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ekeler: 57", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "notes: If either player doesn't play, this market will N/A. Sacks do not count against rush yards. If they are tied in rush yards it will pay out at 50%.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AjayChabra/981e96572db7.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=ilGW2WhZ3kQiitYYQnQyNj6v973KUvKUrPz4RddJqlHiFXN%2Fwrzzk7IizWipJSh8sJfUosDJ%2BYQ9z07eMmmIpnrlBCcUxtozVHiWRAkGYaCpMz6AKUUs%2B%2B%2F34mIjJ0zmLOkP%2FMMguCM7tMw3ZfVXvYV64qZrAd90SHPFdW7izgc7BEP6aa8bD7FO%2BubVC%2Faaj%2BeeuHc4IsYenV2aU2akpJ77jPeYxMm0GKQL%2B9gL8EvkUFZL%2FnYWmgSCoy8bh8OQN7gC4xlC%2BXPi0xyqSysuu2M2UmedNf%2BiMtlA7ec9zjY86Hk%2BRxFpYhhE3eyfEJR%2BD4ibV59OYNLiZEryW4zIag%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["nfl", "fantasy-football-nfl", "nflprops", "baltimore-ravens", "los-angeles-chargers"], "textDescription": "Week 12 - (SNF) - 11/26/23 - Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers.\n\nWill BAL Ravens QB Lamar Jackson rush for more yards than LAC Chargers RB Austin Ekeler?\n\n2023 average rush yards/game:\n\nJackson: 54\n\nEkeler: 57\n\nnotes: If either player doesn't play, this market will N/A. Sacks do not count against rush yards. If they are tied in rush yards it will pay out at 50%."}, {"id": "A975iUAN92hKttEZkS08", "creatorId": "zgCIqq8AmRUYVu6AdQ9vVEJN8On1", "creatorUsername": "_deleted_", "creatorName": "~deleted~", "createdTime": 1689176221825, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2F_deleted_%2FHXynTRyz0d.jpg?alt=media&token=e921532c-19c1-4525-a1a2-5daa17ba2289", "closeTime": 1691735340000, "question": "Will the Top Referrers leaderboard still be there along with top traders and top creators leaderboard on August 11 2023?", "slug": "will-the-top-referrers-leaderboard", "url": "https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-the-top-referrers-leaderboard", "pool": {"NO": 2823.8376298344365, "YES": 89.7763017253301}, "probability": 0.9903336816990015, "p": 0.7651030054011685, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3154.1544889590714, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691746584891, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691740100641, "lastBetTime": 1691726531185, "lastCommentTime": 1691740098768, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?tab=all+time", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?tab=all+time", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If the top traders/creators leaderboards are removed but the referral leaderboard is still there on this link, resolves YES.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If referral leaderboard is replaced by another leaderboard then resolves NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If there is no 3rd leaderboard, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If leaderboards stop existing, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?tab=all+time\n\n\n\nIf the top traders/creators leaderboards are removed but the referral leaderboard is still there on this link, resolves YES.\n\nIf referral leaderboard is replaced by another leaderboard then resolves NO.\n\nIf there is no 3rd leaderboard, resolves NO.\n\nIf leaderboards stop existing, resolves NO."}, {"id": "bKk1lyxByNUaoO5P5w5d", "creatorId": "absbRn643dfzfJpTHnxssDlHxy52", "creatorUsername": "JoeBrenton", "creatorName": "Joe Brenton", "createdTime": 1658451087556, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoeBrenton%2F7EBF6000-151E-4A4A-B4F9-28650910EC6E.jpeg?alt=media&token=ae4013bc-6a40-4643-9a58-3b7a49276e37", "closeTime": 1659558748907, "question": "Will flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 from Russia to Germany continue at over 25% capacity for trailing 7-day average through Oct 31, 2022?", "slug": "will-flow-of-gas-through-nord-strea-6d782b6b8c1e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-flow-of-gas-through-nord-strea-6d782b6b8c1e", "pool": {"NO": 72.5500969313839, "YES": 1240.5221192897902}, "probability": 0.05525217580200749, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1419.5761742479292, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1659558748907, "resolutionProbability": 0.055252175802007496, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1659651290352, "lastBetTime": 1659454759355, "lastCommentTime": 1659651288366, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if the pipeline Physical Flow is < 430,000,000 kWh/day for trailing 7-day average at any time from August 1, 2022 to the end of Oct 31, 2022 (Germany -Central Europe Time).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.nord-stream.info", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nord-stream.info", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My Policy = \u201cNot betting\u201d Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jul 22, 1:55pm: corrected the date range to start 8/1/2022 (vs 7/21)\u2026and threshold at daily avg <430,000,000 kWH/day (vs 43,000,000) to make it a prediction about future flow.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2020 and 2021 the 7-day trailing average for every day 8/1-10/31 was over 1,650,000,000 kWh/day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aug 4, 5:11pm: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FA2hEKkVTTC.jpeg?alt=media&token=d8167d8c-ac28-455e-867b-e1bee9ebe0b3", "title": null}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stefans-group"], "textDescription": "Resolves to NO if the pipeline Physical Flow is < 430,000,000 kWh/day for trailing 7-day average at any time from August 1, 2022 to the end of Oct 31, 2022 (Germany -Central Europe Time).\n\n \n\nhttps://www.nord-stream.info\n\nMy Policy = \u201cNot betting\u201d Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO\n\nJul 22, 1:55pm: corrected the date range to start 8/1/2022 (vs 7/21)\u2026and threshold at daily avg <430,000,000 kWH/day (vs 43,000,000) to make it a prediction about future flow.\n\n \n\nIn 2020 and 2021 the 7-day trailing average for every day 8/1-10/31 was over 1,650,000,000 kWh/day.\n\nAug 4, 5:11pm: \n\n[image]"}, {"id": "ixhy7UA77D3YZe8WEG5s", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678642920112, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678743304218, "question": "Will Vaush's short \"we dumped tons of slaves into the ocean\" reach 10k views by 3/19 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-short-we-dumped-tons-of", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-short-we-dumped-tons-of", "pool": {"NO": 10500, "YES": 15.9448235093314}, "probability": 0.9995417422625561, "p": 0.7681018579267829, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10410, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678743304218, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218598171, "lastBetTime": 1678743301324, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/shorts/LEmWn6hCAc0?feature=share", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/shorts/LEmWn6hCAc0?feature=share", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FUc-K1JX8RE.png?alt=media&token=0c0911c5-e072-47ab-ae05-f853905ac9fd", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtube.com/shorts/LEmWn6hCAc0?feature=share\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "IXTzMO1MESctDOghZuZf", "creatorId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "creatorUsername": "LarsDoucet", "creatorName": "Lars Doucet", "createdTime": 1672976291847, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will Lex Fridman interview a guest about Georgism in 2023?", "slug": "will-lex-fridman-interview-a-guest", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-lex-fridman-interview-a-guest", "pool": {"NO": 269.4577531086554, "YES": 3852.256586850883}, "probability": 0.032030127969044926, "p": 0.32114360062480973, "totalLiquidity": 670, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4283.734498383025, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704125438277, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704125439364, "lastBetTime": 1703919005595, "lastCommentTime": 1673123196408, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, Lex Fridman, host of the \"Lex Fridman Podcast\", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- \"Georgism\", \"Geoism\", or \"Land Value Tax\" -- in a favorable context.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "#LexFridman #Georgism #Economics #Podcast", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["georgism", "lex-fridman", "podcasts", "economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, Lex Fridman, host of the \"Lex Fridman Podcast\", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- \"Georgism\", \"Geoism\", or \"Land Value Tax\" -- in a favorable context.\n\n#LexFridman #Georgism #Economics #Podcast"}, {"id": "PzcZobDRkT3fZMjsn1QG", "creatorId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "creatorUsername": "Lion", "creatorName": "Lion", "createdTime": 1713214828900, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd3adN9d-sYT7-qHh6OyHunfASevxNfHMBVx2GSE0Cu=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713537686578, "question": "[short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,200.00 before 5,000.00?", "slug": "short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-00d99d33f343", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Lion/short-fuse-bulls-vs-bears-will-the-00d99d33f343", "pool": {"NO": 56.86690481959158, "YES": 3672.884493001275}, "probability": 0.009999999999999997, "p": 0.3948188490177643, "totalLiquidity": 320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7072.968915369861, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713537686578, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iiok8KHMCRfUiwtMq1tl5PeDbA73", "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713537686578, "lastBetTime": 1713536762712, "lastCommentTime": 1713537679548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,200.00 or 5,000.00 points ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "during official NYSE core trading hours", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " after market creation (2024-04-15).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,200.00", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NYSE intraday ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nyse.com/quote/index/SPX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For free live trading, I recommend using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " or ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yahoo Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC?p=%5EGSPC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "nyse.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nyse.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sp-500-changes", "finance", "sp-500-439f18dbc885"], "textDescription": "Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,200.00 or 5,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-15).\n\nResolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00\n\nResolves YES if $SPX >= 5,200.00\n\nI'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). \n\nThis question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.\n\nFor free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.\n\nIf you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.\n\nDisclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source."}, {"id": "KldnH2iXvG6BDs1dtIU3", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698010893762, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1698102000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 23 than it closed on October 22?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-23", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-23", "pool": {"NO": 2332.080273977508, "YES": 73.24126786186277}, "probability": 0.9899577421978671, "p": 0.7558579712693602, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2271.7962647400864, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698106725378, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698106719445, "lastBetTime": 1698101822590, "lastCommentTime": 1698106718814, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5229", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "664b226d-2e39-4051-8906-47e2a3b61668", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 15 than it closed on October 14?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEbacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFO", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5229\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "q8VGkOVz0anYKsvaqh3K", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1695928760002, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1696010400000, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on September 29 than it did on September 28?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-septem-4cf486beb82d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-septem-4cf486beb82d", "pool": {"NO": 137.5559173214085, "YES": 223.25885761100312}, "probability": 0.5926139134702686, "p": 0.7024690627389952, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1088.3051882149375, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696023894893, "resolutionProbability": 0.59, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696026085071, "lastBetTime": 1696010386700, "lastCommentTime": 1696026084468, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Q3 2023 (July/August/September)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Prizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1st place - \u1e403,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2nd place - \u1e402,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "3rd place - \u1e401,000", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4th place = \u1e40500", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "5th place - \u1e40250", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "@SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "870a2129-096d-4dc4-8a20-2728ad3bd9bf", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "S&P/TSX Composite Index Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill the TSX close higher on September 5 than it did on September 1?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest S&P/TSX Composite Index (OSPTX) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the \u25b2 SirCryptomind \u25b2 Crypto & Stock \u25b2 leaderboard.\n\n\n\nQ3 2023 (July/August/September)\n\nPrizes for those who have the highest profits on this leaderboard:\n\n1st place - \u1e403,000\n\n2nd place - \u1e402,000\n\n3rd place - \u1e401,000\n\n4th place = \u1e40500\n\n5th place - \u1e40250\n\n@SirCryptomind reserves the right to remove you from Top 5 if It is known and obvious you manipulated a market.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "A3ASqRsreeJNDjCHNYtv", "creatorId": "8aL0bcA8V7hpAUjc5d0UZmvVuY72", "creatorUsername": "samb", "creatorName": "sam", "createdTime": 1676658443377, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fsamb%2F5ZZlomjRmV.jpeg?alt=media&token=ae1faf16-5056-4b40-9707-b12368eaba46", "closeTime": 1696706252841, "question": "Will the phrase \"effective altruism\" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?", "slug": "will-the-phrase-effective-altruism-132828f94e20", "url": "https://manifold.markets/samb/will-the-phrase-effective-altruism-132828f94e20", "pool": {"NO": 15480.69819824623, "YES": 924.7957922154358}, "probability": 0.9790353063491388, "p": 0.7361302836157344, "totalLiquidity": 1990, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 46759.03620459004, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696706252841, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 173, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696706309584, "lastBetTime": 1696114723272, "lastCommentTime": 1696706307877, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What will media attention on EA look like this year? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 2021, EA was mentioned in 9 articles. In 2023 so far, it's been used only in one, implying 8 by end of year at the current rate. The year 2022 was an outlier largely because of the collapse of FTX and the launch of What We Owe The Future.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve to YES if there are more than 9 articles as measured by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this search or an equivalent", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/search?dropmab=false&endDate=20231231&query=%22effective%20altruism%22&sort=best&startDate=20230101", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". It will resolve to N/A if there are no equivalent searches that can resolve it for me without an hour of work. It will resolve to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fqs1VcLvnMj.png?alt=media&token=fb6e35ce-05c2-4aad-a7e6-57d7baef246e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this related market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/samb/will-the-phrase-effective-altruism?r=c2FtYg", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " asking whether the number will be over 50. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feb 17, 3:18pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the phrase \"effective altruism\" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than in 2021?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the phrase \"effective altruism\" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNfLrs8E1p6.png?alt=media&token=a966d952-86c9-4bce-a573-97ca9780397f", "groupSlugs": ["effective-altruism", "usage-of-terms-in-media"], "textDescription": "What will media attention on EA look like this year? \n\nIn 2021, EA was mentioned in 9 articles. In 2023 so far, it's been used only in one, implying 8 by end of year at the current rate. The year 2022 was an outlier largely because of the collapse of FTX and the launch of What We Owe The Future.\n\nMarket will resolve to YES if there are more than 9 articles as measured by this search or an equivalent. It will resolve to N/A if there are no equivalent searches that can resolve it for me without an hour of work. It will resolve to NO otherwise.\n\n[image]See this related market asking whether the number will be over 50. \n\nFeb 17, 3:18pm: Will the phrase \"effective altruism\" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than in 2021? \u2192 Will the phrase \"effective altruism\" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?"}, {"id": "8Yqibe8WuIFJNrgSzMkz", "creatorId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "creatorUsername": "EstMtz", "creatorName": "Sapphire828", "createdTime": 1706994278359, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FEstevanMartinez%2FSCrTet-9FD.png?alt=media&token=46eb74a5-fb31-4a2a-b4bd-91600290a4d7", "closeTime": 1708959608282, "question": "Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander \"Moon Sniper\" survive the lunar night?", "slug": "will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793", "url": "https://manifold.markets/EstMtz/will-japans-jaxa-slim-moon-lander-m-e3facb4a3793", "pool": {"NO": 5949.053895852461, "YES": 121.37095180926153}, "probability": 0.990463077194442, "p": 0.6793673252721918, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8842.23743137332, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1708959608282, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "iEE5Xt4StNg7Wtu1pNN6YE5v1S23", "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709383974967, "lastBetTime": 1708959372502, "lastCommentTime": 1709383974548, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FFVvSElR446.56?alt=media&token=d0ebda45-0654-4bd3-84c4-bb5cfcc4b745", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BBC article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"It is not yet clear how long the craft will be able to operate - it all hinges on the angle of the Sun and solar panels. The Sun will eventually set on the lander and Jaxa has previously warned that it was not designed to survive a lunar night, when the surface of the Moon is not exposed to the Sun for about 14 days.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Space article:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"JAXA will need to wait out the roughly 14.5-Earth-day-long lunar nighttime and then wait for favorable lighting and temperature conditions later in the next lunar daytime (which starts around Feb. 15) before SLIM can potentially be revived once more. For the probe to awake again, however, its electronics must hold up in the face of equatorial lunar nighttime ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "temperatures", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.space.com/18175-moon-temperature.html", "class": "hawk-link-parsed", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " of around minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 130 degrees Celsius).\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "~Feb. 25th, 2024 (my own estimate, plus or minus a few days) is when there should be enough sunlight hitting the solar panels to attempt a revival of the lander.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Market will resolve YES if: any signal is received from the SLIM probe indicating the electronics have survived the lunar night", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "-Market will resolve NO if: no signal is received from the SLIM probe after the lunar night", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/EstMtz%2F95464f7bd5a2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["spacex", "science-default", "space", "moon-landers", "japan", "space-exploration", "jaxa", "technology-default", "moon"], "textDescription": "[image]https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105\n\nhttps://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos\n\nBBC article:\n\n\"It is not yet clear how long the craft will be able to operate - it all hinges on the angle of the Sun and solar panels. The Sun will eventually set on the lander and Jaxa has previously warned that it was not designed to survive a lunar night, when the surface of the Moon is not exposed to the Sun for about 14 days.\"\n\nSpace article:\n\n\"JAXA will need to wait out the roughly 14.5-Earth-day-long lunar nighttime and then wait for favorable lighting and temperature conditions later in the next lunar daytime (which starts around Feb. 15) before SLIM can potentially be revived once more. For the probe to awake again, however, its electronics must hold up in the face of equatorial lunar nighttime temperatures of around minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 130 degrees Celsius).\"\n\n~Feb. 25th, 2024 (my own estimate, plus or minus a few days) is when there should be enough sunlight hitting the solar panels to attempt a revival of the lander.\n\nResolution Criteria:\n\n-Market will resolve YES if: any signal is received from the SLIM probe indicating the electronics have survived the lunar night\n\n-Market will resolve NO if: no signal is received from the SLIM probe after the lunar night"}, {"id": "r3zEZVQvdakBpEDmtk8W", "creatorId": "8EWGFGMMz8RckINyIla9caEqYg92", "creatorUsername": "citrinitas", "creatorName": "Anton Paquin", "createdTime": 1666291162194, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAntonPaquin%2Fseed2915_09.png?alt=media&token=42a39c65-222a-4f5e-9afb-e0ee9de88cd8", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will the USA housing market crash before 2024?", "slug": "will-the-usa-housing-market-crash-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/will-the-usa-housing-market-crash-b", "pool": {"NO": 344.45362594228, "YES": 5105.8255003368195}, "probability": 0.033432374757873265, "p": 0.33893393450984566, "totalLiquidity": 970, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8567.746137207854, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716863708217, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 44, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704095940000, "lastBetTime": 1700625725537, "lastCommentTime": 1716863622544, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on the CSUSHPINSA (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will it decline at least 15% from its peak of 308.47 at any time before the end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES as soon as the index is below 262.20 for any month in 2022 or 2023. NO if December 2023 is released and this condition has not been met.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on a prediction from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.themotte.org/post/133/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/20455?context=8#context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.themotte.org/post/133/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/20455?context=8#context", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "united-states", "housing-markets", "eoy-2023"], "textDescription": "Resolves based on the CSUSHPINSA (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/csushpinsa).\n\nWill it decline at least 15% from its peak of 308.47 at any time before the end of 2023?\n\nResolves YES as soon as the index is below 262.20 for any month in 2022 or 2023. NO if December 2023 is released and this condition has not been met.\n\nBased on a prediction from https://www.themotte.org/post/133/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/20455?context=8#context"}, {"id": "pTlMDzqag8opb8n5N7oX", "creatorId": "QP8oaQ0uutUV5eCLA9nIojXWvYS2", "creatorUsername": "CE", "creatorName": "Charity Entrepreneurship", "createdTime": 1683910949265, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCE%2Fibp30-RuAJ.png?alt=media&token=d2a033a4-9b16-417f-8997-997715e0929a", "closeTime": 1685948340000, "question": "MEDIA5: Informing audiences about their eligibility for welfare programs", "slug": "5-informing-audiences-about-their-e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CE/5-informing-audiences-about-their-e", "pool": {"NO": 1629.702671142241, "YES": 866.9060897357432}, "probability": 0.5599999999999994, "p": 0.4037028195929033, "totalLiquidity": 1290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3487.301643765584, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689007825550, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "uniqueBettorCount": 41, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685978434721, "lastBetTime": 1685946298546, "lastCommentTime": 1685978431280, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7l_a95QpST.png?alt=media&token=c66e285e-0edc-4716-9803-3f6720422f4b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/ce-2023-top-ideas", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", will we select ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Informing audiences about their eligibility for welfare programs\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as a top ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Mass Media", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " intervention?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Idea overview", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It appears that in many LMICs, only a minority of the poorest households\u00a0 are actually receiving social assistance (such as social safety nets or widow pensions), even in countries that have relevant programs that these households could be accessing. Lack of awareness and limited knowledge about the availability of\u00a0 these programs and how to overcome hurdles to access them, have been identified as some of the key barriers. The idea is to provide information about the existence of relevant welfare programs, as well as how to access them.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Mass media interventions", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \u2018mass media\u2019 intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "About the contest", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For contest details and all markets, see the group ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CE 2023 Top Ideas.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/ce-2023-top-ideas", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNf0ACQssoL.png?alt=media&token=b35f1e6f-1c71-4791-840e-aaba8af2e0b9", "groupSlugs": ["ce-2023-top-ideas"], "textDescription": "[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select \"Informing audiences about their eligibility for welfare programs\" as a top Mass Media intervention?\n\nIdea overview\n\nIt appears that in many LMICs, only a minority of the poorest households\u00a0 are actually receiving social assistance (such as social safety nets or widow pensions), even in countries that have relevant programs that these households could be accessing. Lack of awareness and limited knowledge about the availability of\u00a0 these programs and how to overcome hurdles to access them, have been identified as some of the key barriers. The idea is to provide information about the existence of relevant welfare programs, as well as how to access them.\n\nMass media interventions\n\nBy \u2018mass media\u2019 intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.\n\nAbout the contest\n\nIn partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected\n\nYou can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.\n\nYou can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.\n\nFor contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.\n\n"}, {"id": "rBANHCIQfnOakeBZS8Ba", "creatorId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "creatorUsername": "Orca", "creatorName": "Orcatron", "createdTime": 1703280964029, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704654480000, "question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 18 -- Will the Detroit Lions win their NFL Game against the Minnesota Vikings on 01/07?", "slug": "nfl-week-18-will-the-detroit-lions", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-18-will-the-detroit-lions", "pool": {"NO": 622.9196303308295, "YES": 221.4398285290256}, "probability": 0.8388389158010819, "p": 0.6491597167531162, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1681.0874818454727, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704661773186, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "resolverId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206777982, "lastBetTime": 1704653413957, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orca%2F946686609ca8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["football", "nfl", "detroit-lions", "minnesota-vikings"], "textDescription": "Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.\n\nI will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!"}, {"id": "SruKpYPby3M4CjhHx5NZ", "creatorId": "lER4O8rdmaWMADfeGtrX9AnRQr33", "creatorUsername": "brp", "creatorName": "Bjorn", "createdTime": 1673408049626, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJxtYDlRw1cr-LgN0-dvK5JVutQ9Uj0nUQlh6Ykz1A=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682899140000, "question": "Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on April 30, 2023?", "slug": "will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect", "url": "https://manifold.markets/brp/will-a-noncovid-nonmonkeypox-infect", "pool": {"NO": 145.08384365577734, "YES": 441.28673467854935}, "probability": 0.12, "p": 0.29316801542342474, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 390.0777356504435, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1682940844920, "resolutionProbability": 0.12, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682940830089, "lastBetTime": 1682894161416, "lastCommentTime": 1682940823686, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve following a load of the page at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bbc.com/news/health", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/health", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 27, 1:42pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on April 31, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on April 30, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FJnQekQ6EcN.png?alt=media&token=a2771664-cb1c-49a3-a96b-e47ac4d816da", "groupSlugs": ["health"], "textDescription": "To resolve following a load of the page at https://www.bbc.com/news/health \n\nIn order to maintain trust in market resolution, I will not trade in this market.\n\nJan 27, 1:42pm: Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on April 31, 2023? \u2192 Will a non-Covid, non-Monkeypox infectious disease be the top news item in BBC Health on April 30, 2023?"}, {"id": "I1AjSqdqmtqB7E9LbraL", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1702368545764, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1702529400000, "question": "Will flight LO 331 from Warsaw to Paris departing on 2023-12-14 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-867e3a42731b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-lo-331-from-warsaw-to-p-867e3a42731b", "pool": {"NO": 78.80465573750195, "YES": 195.00652471065428}, "probability": 0.060000000000000046, "p": 0.1364051336087687, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 205, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702547817815, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702529196478, "lastBetTime": 1702529196321, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-14 04:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-14 - 06:50 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2023&month=12&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/LO/331?year=2023&month=12&date=14", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/lo331", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fe7fe274cf786.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight LOT Polish Airlines LO 331 from Warsaw (WAW) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-14 04:50 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-14 - 06:50 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a022:50 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:50 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:50 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "FSVo65iTme43eLkcW2t0", "creatorId": "S3quHYCnS6Xo4WBpy2j6Iw8QkCF3", "creatorUsername": "SarkanyVar", "creatorName": "S\u00e1rk\u00e1ny V\u00e1r", "createdTime": 1696614122237, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSarkanyVar%2FI-JMrAPQ2M.png?alt=media&token=889b73b2-5783-437c-bbb0-cfdf3b8f280b", "closeTime": 1696989600000, "question": "[\u1e40200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Lidia make landfall in Mexico?", "slug": "m200-subsidy-will-tropical-storm-li", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SarkanyVar/m200-subsidy-will-tropical-storm-li", "pool": {"NO": 8030.221278444282, "YES": 36.41998880028632}, "probability": 0.9963315222813592, "p": 0.5519255281993426, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8064.005150902378, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1696990819980, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696990923303, "lastBetTime": 1696986311518, "lastCommentTime": 1696990922629, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tropical Storm Lidia", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/LIDIA_graphics.php", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is a tropical cyclone that had formed in the Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico. It is forecast ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "to become a hurricane shortly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep15/ep152023.discus.014.shtml", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " according to NHC advisories. The most recent forecast predicts that Lidia will turn west, then make a U-turn to the east towards the Mexican coast. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUAKap4lQQc.png?alt=media&token=710fd77f-b966-4579-9405-e2b8eb90f686", "title": null}}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023\n900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023\n\n...\n\nAlthough Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location. \n\nThis is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Lidia proceed to make landfall in any part of Mexico, following the last tropical cyclone landfall by Hilary in August?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Lidia is deemed to have landed in any part of mainland Mexico by the Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional (SMN) of Mexico, excluding all outlying islands. SMN's tropical storm warning page can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/en/pronosticos/avisos/aviso-de-ciclon-tropical-en-el-oceano-pacifico", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the SMN of Mexico before the dissipation, degeneration below tropical storm strength, or extratropical transition of Lidia.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve based on SMN data, with supplemented data from NHC if necessary.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I will not bet on this market, but I will put \u1e40200 in as subsidy.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FA33Zy0CqrI.gif?alt=media&token=872ffe67-e54f-4b5b-b5b4-cc34d88e11bd", "groupSlugs": ["2023-hurricane-season", "hurricanes", "extreme-weather", "weather", "natural-disasters", "mexico"], "textDescription": "Background\n\nTropical Storm Lidia is a tropical cyclone that had formed in the Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico. It is forecast to become a hurricane shortly according to NHC advisories. The most recent forecast predicts that Lidia will turn west, then make a U-turn to the east towards the Mexican coast. \n\n[image]Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023\n900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023\n\n...\n\nAlthough Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location. \n\nThis is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nWill Lidia proceed to make landfall in any part of Mexico, following the last tropical cyclone landfall by Hilary in August?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nResolves YES if Lidia is deemed to have landed in any part of mainland Mexico by the Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional (SMN) of Mexico, excluding all outlying islands. SMN's tropical storm warning page can be found here.\n\nResolves NO if no such information can be found from the SMN of Mexico before the dissipation, degeneration below tropical storm strength, or extratropical transition of Lidia.\n\nWill resolve based on SMN data, with supplemented data from NHC if necessary.\n\nI will not bet on this market, but I will put \u1e40200 in as subsidy."}, {"id": "yqENpu0oxY9kXpDkiH5o", "creatorId": "PcJIGaD3wbdOeYNAcWMMiCjKlMG3", "creatorUsername": "FulltimeDragon", "creatorName": "Scott", "createdTime": 1665936356061, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu06vVVkJsFFIrK7kvXpA3qvDNumsEiUOREUxiiv=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704095940000, "question": "Will the U.K. economic collapse inspire the citizens to elect a far-right government before 2024?", "slug": "will-the-uk-economic-collapse-inspi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FulltimeDragon/will-the-uk-economic-collapse-inspi", "pool": {"NO": 305.0891581468876, "YES": 1921.3799290926825}, "probability": 0.032617878725280394, "p": 0.17515298372746096, "totalLiquidity": 460, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2393.5690451856326, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704381360385, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704381360626, "lastBetTime": 1702035935806, "lastCommentTime": 1704381354448, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Developed countries tend to elect far-right leadership during a crisis, whereas developing countries tend to elect far-left leadership during a crisis. E.g. Germany, Japan, and Italy after World War Two, versus Russia during World War One, Angola, and Cuba to name a few others at other times. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "U.k. being in the worst spot, do you think it will be the first domino to fall of the 2020s?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "uk-politics", "global-macro", "geopolitics", "economics-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Developed countries tend to elect far-right leadership during a crisis, whereas developing countries tend to elect far-left leadership during a crisis. E.g. Germany, Japan, and Italy after World War Two, versus Russia during World War One, Angola, and Cuba to name a few others at other times. \n\nU.k. being in the worst spot, do you think it will be the first domino to fall of the 2020s?"}, {"id": "IRDds9miMB1T31ldUV3l", "creatorId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "creatorUsername": "JCDM", "creatorName": "Jimmy Carter Death Markets", "createdTime": 1703879122470, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTestiecool%2FSf9hv1SJhH.jpg?alt=media&token=b52f6399-67e5-4e8f-831d-01d8ae732bec", "closeTime": 1704603540000, "question": "Will Jimmy Carter Die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "slug": "will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi", "pool": {"NO": 229.95692100854103, "YES": 21347.276931931745}, "probability": 0.0015742405706425143, "p": 0.12768109717907192, "totalLiquidity": 450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22854.284200524686, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704605367358, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "ZjFfwNBZ65g8k6EOJjcMydO5Ebs1", "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704605367624, "lastBetTime": 1704601471908, "lastCommentTime": 1704605359024, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Testiecool%2Fcf8ac7811229.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["death-markets", "jimmy-carter"], "textDescription": "Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)\n\nResolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)"}, {"id": "AYyCUyU1KfMENL35XXtG", "creatorId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "creatorUsername": "SneakySly", "creatorName": "SneakySly", "createdTime": 1667567302174, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e", "closeTime": 1668801711522, "question": "Will the Slay the Spire Board Game Kickstarter exceed $3 million pledged?", "slug": "will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game", "pool": {"NO": 14172.166064979137, "YES": 356.9977393652016}, "probability": 0.9936987145912355, "p": 0.7988905518047728, "totalLiquidity": 830, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28812.455012025275, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1668801711522, "resolutionProbability": 0.9930982794078953, "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668801645499, "lastBetTime": 1668801645373, "lastCommentTime": 1668735448187, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickstarter Here: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game/comments", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game/comments", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If at the end of the Kickstarter campaign, the total pledged amount exceeds ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "$3 million", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " in USD this market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Otherwise this market resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Related Market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game-97d8ea1bd377", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FeZbODfsjKJ.png?alt=media&token=45c4c220-8e96-4b14-be19-d4fe0df50f40", "groupSlugs": ["gaming"], "textDescription": "Kickstarter Here: \nhttps://www.kickstarter.com/projects/contentiongames/slay-the-spire-the-board-game/comments\n\nIf at the end of the Kickstarter campaign, the total pledged amount exceeds $3 million in USD this market resolves YES. \n\nOtherwise this market resolves NO. \n\nRelated Market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SneakySly/will-the-slay-the-spire-board-game-97d8ea1bd377)"}, {"id": "4HF6dQd3VY43PtqrYsLv", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1702266776724, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1702891800000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on December 18 than it closed on December 15?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-33edc951c4a9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-33edc951c4a9", "pool": {"NO": 172.25693926492212, "YES": 266.8856016334573}, "probability": 0.4456687329372472, "p": 0.5546918882979224, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 618.0856988411897, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702897340873, "resolutionProbability": 0.45, "resolverId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462483568, "lastBetTime": 1702891287596, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/GreyBox%2F1c3886f50c31.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "sccsq4", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "O5Whr7YnbY0tYPYFeo1X", "creatorId": "TrImueL1PYfsDLZscAOimGW7kAb2", "creatorUsername": "TheFuturesWild", "creatorName": "The Future's Wild", "createdTime": 1697576271295, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKk6ClmCezhEcnQDlGwItZx71SMWVOzwiJR7wJTbSw5V18=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698256268148, "question": "Will Republicans agree to change House rules to allow \"governance by consensus\"?", "slug": "will-republicans-agree-to-change-ho", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TheFuturesWild/will-republicans-agree-to-change-ho", "pool": {"NO": 118.07481182938588, "YES": 355.35574206057817}, "probability": 0.1799999999999999, "p": 0.39782245040510783, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 465.8285546407432, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698256268148, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698255167084, "lastBetTime": 1698255163276, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I used January as a placeholder resolve date, this should resolve well before that.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "With Republicans having trouble settling on a speaker, Hakeem Jeffries has pitched a coalition government that he describes as an \u201cenlightened arrangement.\u201d But the idea is a long shot. Earlier this week he said \u201cinformal conversations\u201d had occurred but did not share details.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mr. Jeffries said Democrats would join Republicans to elect a speaker only if they agreed to change House rules to allow \u201cgovernance by consensus\u201d; in other words, allowing bills with bipartisan support to come to the floor.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "118th-congress", "speaker-of-the-house-election"], "textDescription": "I used January as a placeholder resolve date, this should resolve well before that.\n\nWith Republicans having trouble settling on a speaker, Hakeem Jeffries has pitched a coalition government that he describes as an \u201cenlightened arrangement.\u201d But the idea is a long shot. Earlier this week he said \u201cinformal conversations\u201d had occurred but did not share details.\n\nMr. Jeffries said Democrats would join Republicans to elect a speaker only if they agreed to change House rules to allow \u201cgovernance by consensus\u201d; in other words, allowing bills with bipartisan support to come to the floor."}, {"id": "0qWUTOzMJM1NqgkF5XTw", "creatorId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "creatorUsername": "bessarabov", "creatorName": "bessarabov", "createdTime": 1686486444613, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxa0vn1x1xAzRtUYlNYFvDv8apE9Dr8EZAyBq_q2-Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704225540000, "question": "Will McDonald's open a location in Yerevan, Armenia in 2023?", "slug": "will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bessarabov/will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y", "pool": {"NO": 95.7022030891293, "YES": 4640.253670845663}, "probability": 0.0038416116332608712, "p": 0.1575287840039057, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5245.788464226082, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704226843806, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "ZuszDdXKmAa8olvm3Y2APkEyc9C2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706504798697, "lastBetTime": 1704225488894, "lastCommentTime": 1704227348277, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently there is no McDonald's in Armenia.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved as YES if in year 2023 the McDonald's location is opened in Yerevan and an oridnary person can walk inside a buy some food (the timezone used for this market is ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Armenia Time", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "AMT)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This should be an official location, not the stealing the name.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the location is opend in 2023, but then closes this also resoves as YES.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will be resolved as NO if there is no ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "McDonald's in Yerevan in 2023.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(if the location only annoced, but not opened this will be resolved as NO; if the location is under constraction in 2023 and does not serve food in 2023 this is resolved as NO )", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This will be resolved as NO if McDonald's is opened in Armenia, but not in Yerevan. This market is about McDonald's in Yerevan, not in the other places of Armenia.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "## When the resoution will happen", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This marked will be resoved as YES shortly after this event occurs (I will use several news sources that should state that this has happened, and I will also check some social platforms, instagram and/or foursquare and/or yelp)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This marked will be resolved as NO after the market is closed in the beginning of 2024 if the location is not opened in 2023.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "## Author betting policy", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I can bet on this market.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "## All my markets on this topic", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "0qWUTOzMJM1NqgkF5XTw", "label": "/bessarabov/will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y"}}, {"text": " \u2014 this market", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "3pbHsTSkZ9qlh4VhN4e5", "label": "/bessarabov/will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y-a0825036cca2"}}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F1JqVG2lKir.png?alt=media&token=57cd916f-958e-4d09-9801-3bc2b2946f5c", "groupSlugs": ["armenia"], "textDescription": "Currently there is no McDonald's in Armenia.\n\nThis market will be resolved as YES if in year 2023 the McDonald's location is opened in Yerevan and an oridnary person can walk inside a buy some food (the timezone used for this market is Armenia Time, AMT)\n\nThis should be an official location, not the stealing the name.\n\n\nIf the location is opend in 2023, but then closes this also resoves as YES.\n\nWill be resolved as NO if there is no McDonald's in Yerevan in 2023.\n(if the location only annoced, but not opened this will be resolved as NO; if the location is under constraction in 2023 and does not serve food in 2023 this is resolved as NO )\n\nThis will be resolved as NO if McDonald's is opened in Armenia, but not in Yerevan. This market is about McDonald's in Yerevan, not in the other places of Armenia.\n\n\n\n## When the resoution will happen\n\nThis marked will be resoved as YES shortly after this event occurs (I will use several news sources that should state that this has happened, and I will also check some social platforms, instagram and/or foursquare and/or yelp)\n\nThis marked will be resolved as NO after the market is closed in the beginning of 2024 if the location is not opened in 2023.\n\n\n\n## Author betting policy\n\nI can bet on this market.\n\n## All my markets on this topic\n\n@/bessarabov/will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y \u2014 this market\n@/bessarabov/will-mcdonalds-open-a-location-in-y-a0825036cca2"}, {"id": "Z7kXwyXXRncqIbYhHplz", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1684363409595, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1684378014589, "question": "Will Jimmy Butler (MIA) Score Over/Under 31.1 Points In Game 1 vs The Boston Celtics On 05/17/2023?", "slug": "will-jimmy-butler-mia-score-overund-86f1963b8fba", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-jimmy-butler-mia-score-overund-86f1963b8fba", "pool": {"NO": 10800.25426899361, "YES": 0.39777215013418754}, "probability": 0.9999543713984079, "p": 0.4466363378994879, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11136.035473697968, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684378014589, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684378007924, "lastBetTime": 1684378007808, "lastCommentTime": 1684377995107, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jimmy Butler", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.statmuse.com/nba/player/jimmy-butler-528", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " has averaged 31.1 points per game in the 2023 playoffs.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jimmy-butler-career-postseason-ppg-this-season", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jimmy-butler-career-postseason-ppg-this-season", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547671", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547671", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES: Over 31.1 Points", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A: Player DNP", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NO: Under 31.1 Points", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes ~3 Hours After Game Starts.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Resolve After Game Is Officially Over If Prior To ~3 Hours After Start OR If Player Scores Over 31.1 Points Prior To Game Completion.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market May Extend If Overtime Is Played.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I Will Not Actively Participate In The Market But I May Eat Up Remaining Liquidity If Any Is Left On The Prediction Books.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FUd29gLtVBr.png?alt=media&token=58a217c6-613c-41a7-a2f0-257fc6a1fdb0", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Jimmy Butler has averaged 31.1 points per game in the 2023 playoffs.\n\nhttps://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jimmy-butler-career-postseason-ppg-this-season\n\nhttps://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401547671\n\nYES: Over 31.1 Points\n\nN/A: Player DNP\n\nNO: Under 31.1 Points\n\nCloses ~3 Hours After Game Starts.\n\nWill Resolve After Game Is Officially Over If Prior To ~3 Hours After Start OR If Player Scores Over 31.1 Points Prior To Game Completion.\n\nMarket May Extend If Overtime Is Played.\n\nI Will Not Actively Participate In The Market But I May Eat Up Remaining Liquidity If Any Is Left On The Prediction Books."}, {"id": "YD6X8zuOTlnonIunQsfM", "creatorId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "creatorUsername": "Joshua", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1715540710267, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshua%2Flove-images%2FQ-cHyvFvAI.png?alt=media&token=363611e5-3f90-45c9-87d5-f5791800ee6f", "closeTime": 1716188340000, "question": "Will \"OpenAI\" hit 50% of its previous all-time high search interest this week? (US Google Trends)", "slug": "will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-openai-hit-50-of-its-previous", "pool": {"NO": 1252.9290122004797, "YES": 522.8571954310385}, "probability": 0.9822324553245595, "p": 0.9584541311147516, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2915.6976193001437, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1716272804998, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716327057029, "lastBetTime": 1716178395124, "lastCommentTime": 1716272889547, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data will be taken from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "here. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fg%2F11bxc656v6&hl=en", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F2W3t4PYWMT.png?alt=media&token=f07cac4f-ebf2-4172-8e4f-d05e93173a43", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The previous record for search interest in the US was during the Sam Altman firing incident last November. In February of this year, interest briefly spiked to 55% of that previous record.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the finalized data for the week of May 12th to 18th is 50 or higher, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Joshua/d11cf9c9873b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "ai", "openai"], "textDescription": "Data will be taken from here. \n\n[image]The previous record for search interest in the US was during the Sam Altman firing incident last November. In February of this year, interest briefly spiked to 55% of that previous record.\n\nIf the finalized data for the week of May 12th to 18th is 50 or higher, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. "}, {"id": "CBeIwDQQQguLyrTcX4wK", "creatorId": "Y5TMQQojhUdkfERjJ4AySBb6Ytr2", "creatorUsername": "Vg1131", "creatorName": "Vahag", "createdTime": 1697877094606, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKs4Pw_BuwMzdsmusNEKP7BIjTbKGF0CVevLolaTGxXOA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067263889, "question": "Will I get accepted to ASPR/WARP?", "slug": "will-i-get-accepted-to-asprwarp", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Vg1131/will-i-get-accepted-to-asprwarp", "pool": {"NO": 320.32059327079634, "YES": 689.2237227084267}, "probability": 0.3599999999999996, "p": 0.5475754946047323, "totalLiquidity": 530, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8008.181472291275, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704067263889, "resolutionProbability": 0.36, "resolverId": "Y5TMQQojhUdkfERjJ4AySBb6Ytr2", "uniqueBettorCount": 31, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704067264885, "lastBetTime": 1704057684187, "lastCommentTime": 1703417042677, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if I get an offer to attend either one of the two.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am 19, studying at a local uni: after taking a gap year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Accomplishments\\Extracurriculars mentioned in the application:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International Math Olympiad 2022 Silver Medal", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International Math Olympiad 2021 Silver Medal", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "International Math Olympiad 2020 Bronze Medal", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023 Atlas Fellow ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Co-author of a soon-to-be-published paper in analytic number theory", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Good grades on some abstract math courses (Topology, Sporadic Prime Group Theory, etc.)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Math club teacher for 9th graders ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My application looks okay to me.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update (12 Nov): I completed the second stage.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Minkowski's Geometric Wonderland", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " - did all of them but submitted them a few seconds late.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Two Questions -", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " did okayish.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Math Artifacts ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "- gave a fairly detailed explanation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Maker of Worlds ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "- it's not looking good.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update (Dec 2): I got an interview invitation.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update (Dec 4): I'm buying no shares as a compensation if I don't get in. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update (Dec 5): I enjoyed the interview. Can't be sure if it was good or not though, as I don't have a sense of the applicant pool.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is all the information I'll provide for now. Feel free to ask additional questions in the comments; I may or may not answer them.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspiration: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/mudPi314/should-i-apply-to-asprwarp-read-des", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["rationality", "philosophy-af8706ce1d7e", "mathematics", "science-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if I get an offer to attend either one of the two.\n\nI am 19, studying at a local uni: after taking a gap year.\n\nAccomplishments\\Extracurriculars mentioned in the application:\n\nInternational Math Olympiad 2022 Silver Medal\n\nInternational Math Olympiad 2021 Silver Medal\n\nInternational Math Olympiad 2020 Bronze Medal\n\n2023 Atlas Fellow \n\nCo-author of a soon-to-be-published paper in analytic number theory\n\nGood grades on some abstract math courses (Topology, Sporadic Prime Group Theory, etc.)\n\nMath club teacher for 9th graders \n\nMy application looks okay to me.\n\nUpdate (12 Nov): I completed the second stage.\n\nMinkowski's Geometric Wonderland - did all of them but submitted them a few seconds late.\n\nTwo Questions - did okayish.\n\nMath Artifacts - gave a fairly detailed explanation.\n\nMaker of Worlds - it's not looking good.\n\nUpdate (Dec 2): I got an interview invitation.\n\nUpdate (Dec 4): I'm buying no shares as a compensation if I don't get in. \n\nUpdate (Dec 5): I enjoyed the interview. Can't be sure if it was good or not though, as I don't have a sense of the applicant pool.\n\nThis is all the information I'll provide for now. Feel free to ask additional questions in the comments; I may or may not answer them.\n\nInspiration: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/mudPi314/should-i-apply-to-asprwarp-read-des)"}, {"id": "im9bstpvXyvnXdnwcf6b", "creatorId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "creatorUsername": "JoshuaB", "creatorName": "Joshua", "createdTime": 1678666115189, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJoshuaB%2F8sWxWAR4eF.png?alt=media&token=4afe9518-3795-4c7a-83b9-ee28a908e5dd", "closeTime": 1704085691859, "question": "Will Manifold Markets be in the top 25 Google Search results for \u201cManifold\" at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-markets-be-in-the-top-3e23ab719d50", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoshuaB/will-manifold-markets-be-in-the-top-3e23ab719d50", "pool": {"NO": 3723.423141629094, "YES": 466.6388754788817}, "probability": 0.9535556908861084, "p": 0.7201288504494981, "totalLiquidity": 870, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4082.07521140196, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704085691859, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "1wygrQ94KrMNSHF3ck9rxKVrRED2", "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704085772575, "lastBetTime": 1703291939039, "lastCommentTime": 1704085771844, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At the end of 2023 (some time on December 31st PST), in a Safari incognito window, I will search 'manifold' (no quotes). If a Manifold Markets link is one of the first 25 links (not including links marked as sponsored) in the main-search result section, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currently ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "manifold.markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://manifold.markets", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": " is the 38th link when searched.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What counts as a main-search result?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think this is best illustrated with a jankily drawn diagram! If after seeing this diagram, confusion remains, ask a question in the comments!", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FyE-iTEp_jT.55?alt=media&token=9b4df091-ec28-425c-ab22-a7f4720fcd26", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google substantially changes in such a way that the resolution criteria no longer make sense, I will resolve to the best of my ability based on the spirit of the market (feel free to ask hypotheticals to better understand what that would mean).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Due to the possibility of a subjective resolution, I will not purchase any shares in this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FKQgBp28dPG.png?alt=media&token=cb0086cc-fa5e-4688-ba01-df8f6398977a", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-6748e065087e", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "At the end of 2023 (some time on December 31st PST), in a Safari incognito window, I will search 'manifold' (no quotes). If a Manifold Markets link is one of the first 25 links (not including links marked as sponsored) in the main-search result section, this will resolve YES, otherwise NO.\n\nCurrently manifold.markets is the 38th link when searched.\n\nWhat counts as a main-search result?\n\nI think this is best illustrated with a jankily drawn diagram! If after seeing this diagram, confusion remains, ask a question in the comments!\n\n[image]If Google substantially changes in such a way that the resolution criteria no longer make sense, I will resolve to the best of my ability based on the spirit of the market (feel free to ask hypotheticals to better understand what that would mean).\n\nDue to the possibility of a subjective resolution, I will not purchase any shares in this market."}, {"id": "He65xr5CW5jBQKd9ntLE", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1710809866609, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1710889200000, "question": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "slug": "-crypto-how-will-bitcoin-close-on-t-977e2578cb2e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-crypto-how-will-bitcoin-close-on-t-977e2578cb2e", "pool": {"NO": 123.64311035596452, "YES": 349.35256482309865}, "probability": 0.21248062770089302, "p": 0.4325745247445756, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 630.000099009901, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710902674171, "resolutionProbability": 0.21, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710889200000, "lastBetTime": 1710866873271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = HIGHER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = LOWER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Information:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The official source used is *", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Coingecko", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bitcoin Cash BCH/USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-cash", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolving:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin-cash/historical_data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Each option resolves independent of the others.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "crypto-marketdaily", "crypto-prices", "bitcoin-cash"], "textDescription": "\ud83e\ude99 Crypto: How Will Bitcoin Cash Close On Tue. Mar. 19th Compared To Its Close On Mon. Mar. 18th?\n\nYES = HIGHER\nNO = LOWER\n\nMarket Information:\n\nThe markets are open from 8pm - 8pm ET (12am UTC - 12am UTC)\n\nThis market predictions will close 7pm ET (11pm UTC)\n\nThe official source used is *Coingecko\n\nBitcoin Cash BCH/USD\n\nResolving:\n\nResolves according to the Historical Data displayed at *Coingecko at the end of the day.\n\nEach option resolves independent of the others.\n\nIf a Cryptocurrency closes \"Flat\" (same close price as prior day) this will resolve 50/50 for their Yes/No options.\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\n\n"}, {"id": "axPpcH6JFA2lhcqlhB5J", "creatorId": "zPHQcxyXADVDAp0Km9ZSYdj2ti03", "creatorUsername": "CquilPromp", "creatorName": "Cquil Promp", "createdTime": 1694276978574, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtduBMX-RGqTEB45Q03dKPvo7uMLGtOUNTXlg5R5gv9k4Q=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694286000000, "question": "Will the temperature in Central Park September 9th at 3:51pm be in the 81-83\u00b0 range?", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-central-par-d0c842e6a421", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CquilPromp/will-the-temperature-in-central-par-d0c842e6a421", "pool": {"NO": 125.84521268020488, "YES": 231.68502334840574}, "probability": 0.2499999999999998, "p": 0.38029738325053647, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 253.41023106727542, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694292309659, "resolutionProbability": 0.25, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694285905216, "lastBetTime": 1694285904916, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 81-83\u00b0 range ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "at 3:51pm", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (15:51) on Sept 9, 2023 ?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes 3:00pm ET", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["climate", "weather", "new-york"], "textDescription": "Will the air temperature in Central Park, New York, be in the 81-83\u00b0 range at 3:51pm (15:51) on Sept 9, 2023 ?\n\nQuestion closes 3:00pm ET\n\nResolves according to:\n\nhttps://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html\n\n"}, {"id": "PyK62l8EwStQSDhi6keg", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707168267399, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707375600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-08 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-1e2a668f92db", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-1e2a668f92db", "pool": {"NO": 88.00315700569136, "YES": 101.22657739321714}, "probability": 0.14001641413038127, "p": 0.15773676623452654, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 85.46563242851963, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707429449100, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707429449338, "lastBetTime": 1707252945453, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-08 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-08 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=08", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F6d07467feea5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-08 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-08 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "G8PyLNRuXRumqWyR3ane", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715311827181, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715382000000, "question": "Will Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers on May 10 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "will-boston-bruins-beat-florida-pan-c9cb03151da4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-boston-bruins-beat-florida-pan-c9cb03151da4", "pool": {"NO": 506.90255583452495, "YES": 493.18225069169864}, "probability": 0.5065425233154988, "p": 0.49968289555526213, "totalLiquidity": 500, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 56, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715395657951, "resolutionProbability": 0.51, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715382000000, "lastBetTime": 1715359252404, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 10", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Bruins+vs+Panthers#sie=m;/g/11y48mnpv0;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 6pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "6pm CST on May 10", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/051adb0082f2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hockey", "nhl", "sports-default", "culture-default", "sports-betting"], "textDescription": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 10\n\nGame starts 6pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 6pm CST on May 10\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death"}, {"id": "z7WnQXpRRv1jnxJQ0A1U", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1706621226865, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1707393210693, "question": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?", "slug": "-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r", "pool": {"NO": 2359.5766504861026, "YES": 334.08754778859816}, "probability": 0.9443527198237824, "p": 0.7061238275293511, "totalLiquidity": 650, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2613.827465940322, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707393210693, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707397975992, "lastBetTime": 1707223770998, "lastCommentTime": 1707397975365, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVES YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RESOLVES NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTES:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Close Time Is The Deadline.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CLARIFICATIONS:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1/30/2024 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CONTEXT", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_1_report.pdf", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDj7YnTmshX.png?alt=media&token=53aab076-c466-461a-b32f-b9c419b9532b", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "APRIL MARKET", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r-2ddc47269938", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SirCryptomind%2F6558c14a915c.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "release-dates", "google-gemini", "ai", "google-bard", "technology-default", "llms", "google-ef2cf716540e"], "textDescription": "\ud83c\udf10 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before March 31st 2024?\n\nRESOLVES YES: \n\nIf an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc. \n\nThere MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user. \n\nFree or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.\n\n(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)\n\nRESOLVES NO: \n\nIf an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc. \n\nNOTES:  \n\nThe Close Time Is The Deadline.\n\nI may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.\n\nCLARIFICATIONS:\n\n1/30/2024 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.\n\nCONTEXT\nGemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models\n\n[image]DISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n\nAPRIL MARKET\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r-2ddc47269938)"}, {"id": "UYrGag7C3hN4DI4KrYtF", "creatorId": "AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1", "creatorUsername": "B", "creatorName": "Ben J. Smith", "createdTime": 1697315213733, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiCGCi4xMp-2XlWaLAbGSnKLhGWWxkZiwQprp0zZg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704131439699, "question": "Will Winston Peters or any other NZ First MP be a government minister in 2023?", "slug": "will-winston-peters-or-any-other-nz", "url": "https://manifold.markets/B/will-winston-peters-or-any-other-nz", "pool": {"NO": 2428.1127320273517, "YES": 112.87619814238008}, "probability": 0.9814880752785656, "p": 0.7113760997563888, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13054.099494733286, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704131439699, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "AnwMY6RZsoVj9AGzpjKyaPGAqxg1", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704131442508, "lastBetTime": 1704120016998, "lastCommentTime": 1704131428268, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Winston Peters or any other NZ First MP be a government minister in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In or outside cabinet, this will resolve positively.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["new-zealand", "nz-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will Winston Peters or any other NZ First MP be a government minister in 2023?\n\nIn or outside cabinet, this will resolve positively."}, {"id": "XbqBYDhVcyKHcmKH4ywu", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1676496296864, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1676761337745, "question": "Will Vaush's video on the Keffals R word drama get 100k views by Feb 22nd?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-on-the-keffals-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-on-the-keffals-r", "pool": {"NO": 1666.682009410464, "YES": 31.669281370399165}, "probability": 0.9899999999999999, "p": 0.652914924144382, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5565.474035733985, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1676761337745, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218575574, "lastBetTime": 1676761322313, "lastCommentTime": 1676761235201, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/mpYmLEaSKH4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/mpYmLEaSKH4", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FAXNCTNl0u8.png?alt=media&token=a228ef5b-f6d9-44e4-a13a-6ba18201fecc", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/mpYmLEaSKH4"}, {"id": "mn2FkoYRBSnCKlpVqKM0", "creatorId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "creatorUsername": "LukasDay", "creatorName": "Lukas Day", "createdTime": 1709234287003, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLukasDay%2F-mUxC2rODr.png?alt=media&token=0337405b-7dc2-49f9-b0ad-0400288973bd", "closeTime": 1711954740000, "question": "Will Oregon sell more marijuana in March than February?", "slug": "will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "pool": {"NO": 879.6378464538916, "YES": 321.9740443943324}, "probability": 0.8258851101199187, "p": 0.6345301352656799, "totalLiquidity": 480, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 624, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712072753857, "resolutionProbability": 0.83, "resolverId": "bYO9yYhDGQg5G6z5a6RZ3fmkt8B3", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711954740000, "lastBetTime": 1711951120261, "lastCommentTime": 1712072747528, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mn2FkoYRBSnCKlpVqKM0", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "z1bAOKdCy08zWGxGmet3", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "IBGyGfdYtZl7ctKKnEzR", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "NMSyys6yx7q4T1FmntxV", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "MTfHiBkqR8mmZQs3vfCY", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "mgylWUFS6Y3vGRhqYTXc", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "xz84b0keqQXWfGcTPZ48", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "tHhOlTbnh2dAQS3ynbwt", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "FIYrHZXUcxuRYYEh0EBH", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "4apl4UXOcVg2q5csjvQp", "label": "/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-4967c287aefe"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u200c", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997", "class": "group inline whitespace-nowrap rounded-sm", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a prediction market. Market will close 31 March and will resolve in April when reports are released.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are higher than February sales.\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Market will resolve ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "NO ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are less than or equal to February sales.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Data Source: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Oregon Liquor & Cannabis Commission Monthly Reports", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://data.olcc.state.or.us/t/OLCCPublic/views/MarketDataTableau/StatewideSalesTrend?%3Aembed=y&%3Aiid=1&%3AisGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/LukasDay%2F6ab9d56208a8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["oregon-3ad789ce7df0", "cannabis", "economics-default", "drugs", "us-economy", "marijuana", "marijuana-sales"], "textDescription": "Related Markets\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-271befb2bc54 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-16f7b75ebc08 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-c85b93ccbade \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-fe6be23a27e5 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-024a6e3b2d7c \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-5c9cdd6ae445 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a28dcd66de42 \u200c\n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-a2d3a27ba997 \n\n@/LukasDay/will-oregon-sell-more-marijuana-in-4967c287aefe \u200c\n\nMarket Resolution\n\nThis is a prediction market. Market will close 31 March and will resolve in April when reports are released.\n\nMarket will resolve YES if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are higher than February sales.\u00a0\n\n\nMarket will resolve NO if Oregon marijuana total sales for March are less than or equal to February sales.\n\nData Source: Oregon Liquor & Cannabis Commission Monthly Reports\n\nDisclaimer\n\nI do not bet in markets I create. In the event that I am unable or unavailable to resolve the market, the market may be resolved by Manifold Mods. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log. "}, {"id": "2X6zwNH07zCoSZxm4t8V", "creatorId": "dHWayMT91JYVmwsDyaxbXSmSy5W2", "creatorUsername": "KeegabQcosta", "creatorName": "Keegab Qcosta", "createdTime": 1691041139694, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcaqDMv1nK2mQ6abhb0GmkpmsB8doex0yE7CQhYMfg-=s96-c", "closeTime": 1693461540000, "question": "Will Starfield have an 85 or higher on Metacritic upon release?", "slug": "will-starfield-have-an-85-or-higher", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeegabQcosta/will-starfield-have-an-85-or-higher", "pool": {"NO": 637.3270546553904, "YES": 584.9013723964581}, "probability": 0.7247687385701256, "p": 0.7073195642276151, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1595.027020480537, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693501569132, "resolutionProbability": 0.72, "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693403897549, "lastBetTime": 1693403897440, "lastCommentTime": 1692295485400, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bethesda's next new game: Starfield. Will the \"critics\" like this one?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am going to average the Xbox Series X reviews and the PC reviews to get the number", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/starfield", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/starfield", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/game/xbox-series-x/starfield", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/game/xbox-series-x/starfield", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["video-games", "gaming", "starfield", "bethesda"], "textDescription": "Bethesda's next new game: Starfield. Will the \"critics\" like this one?\n\nI am going to average the Xbox Series X reviews and the PC reviews to get the number\n\nhttps://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/starfield\n\nhttps://www.metacritic.com/game/xbox-series-x/starfield"}, {"id": "Lv9IE5t46irD05x5VSyt", "creatorId": "K0l9JnD5DcPqyfloiKWIHbK8klD3", "creatorUsername": "Tetraspace", "creatorName": "Tetra", "createdTime": 1653081429746, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTetraspace%2Flove-images%2FmGTq2VkWEW.png?alt=media&token=77e2b25f-dd8a-4652-a4a7-b7343519b16f", "closeTime": 1664492400000, "question": "Will California SB 886 \"California Environmental Quality Act: exemption: public universities: university housing development projects\" pass in the 2022 legislative session?", "slug": "will-california-sb-886-california-e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/will-california-sb-886-california-e", "pool": {"NO": 201.21059877632254, "YES": 50.25042741497728}, "probability": 0.8000848751176873, "p": 0.4998729632706093, "totalLiquidity": 100.2853908964927, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 136.88226680437032, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1664725288377, "resolutionProbability": 0.8000848751176873, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1664725282583, "lastBetTime": 1664315155439, "lastCommentTime": 1664725281301, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SB 886 is a piece of legislation sponsored by California YIMBY and authored by Scott Weiner to streamline the environmental approval process for housing projects on university-owned land. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bill: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB886", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB886", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CA YIMBY page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://cayimby.org/sb-886/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://cayimby.org/sb-886/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "housing-markets", "california", "yimby"], "textDescription": "SB 886 is a piece of legislation sponsored by California YIMBY and authored by Scott Weiner to streamline the environmental approval process for housing projects on university-owned land. \n\nBill: https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB886\n\nCA YIMBY page: https://cayimby.org/sb-886/"}, {"id": "uq0VFHwK1uApCXVAW3QV", "creatorId": "LTxdwMZvemUdpLVOAHKRPuivGwV2", "creatorUsername": "Iamczecksy", "creatorName": "iamczecksy", "createdTime": 1696463285536, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJillCzeck%2FiyD-BVwbJp.png?alt=media&token=f14f450b-9a90-49b6-ad34-5df471ce456d", "closeTime": 1696988959374, "question": "Will the Minnesota Twins win the ALDS game 3 vs the Houston Astros?", "slug": "will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-al-9b11b006ba78", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Iamczecksy/will-the-minnesota-twins-win-the-al-9b11b006ba78", "pool": {"NO": 91.94591845978869, "YES": 1013.1893803546432}, "probability": 0.03069979786667728, "p": 0.25871455368671537, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1629.4197354204646, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696988984916, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696978632012, "lastBetTime": 1696978631702, "lastCommentTime": 1696822731152, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game 3:\u00a0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Tuesday, 3:07 p.m. at Target Field", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Starting pitchers: Twins righthander Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79) will take on Astros righthander Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["baseball", "mlb"], "textDescription": "Game 3:\u00a0Tuesday, 3:07 p.m. at Target Field\n\nStarting pitchers: Twins righthander Sonny Gray (8-8, 2.79) will take on Astros righthander Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56).\u00a0\n\n"}, {"id": "osiaVAn6IDceH27ZRGg9", "creatorId": "N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1", "creatorUsername": "SamBogerd", "creatorName": "Sam Bogerd", "createdTime": 1706701610965, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp7jLVh87UFbGs1SVyVEC8hHwUqLiyniT_8xSym6vVg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709333940000, "question": "Will the current draft of the EU AI Act pass without changes?", "slug": "will-the-current-draft-of-the-eu-ai", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SamBogerd/will-the-current-draft-of-the-eu-ai", "pool": {"NO": 729.4149793543885, "YES": 210.64131624632833}, "probability": 0.8497139738792853, "p": 0.6201708413706529, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 934.8743513605316, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710698691538, "resolutionProbability": 0.85, "resolverId": "N8NZFmbUKwVrISMWM2MBVlPd77p1", "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710698691761, "lastBetTime": 1709323205565, "lastCommentTime": 1706887106202, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fairly straightforward question, I will have a pretty low bar for changes, but any changes that are just meant to clarify the language will definitely not count. I think the change would have to be a significant policy change, by current I mean the proposal circulating after this leak: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SamBogerd%2Fb77b6c73b129.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "ai-governance-policy", "politics-default", "european-union"], "textDescription": "Fairly straightforward question, I will have a pretty low bar for changes, but any changes that are just meant to clarify the language will definitely not count. I think the change would have to be a significant policy change, by current I mean the proposal circulating after this leak: https://thenextweb.com/news/eu-ai-act-leak-removes-dobuts \n\n"}, {"id": "9XIKIGg9Yg0woV0f0jva", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1705061862258, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705695819815, "question": "Will Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters by January 20?", "slug": "will-arc-browser-on-windows-be-rele-70b33f3a58dd", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-arc-browser-on-windows-be-rele-70b33f3a58dd", "pool": {"NO": 3967.2662062784866, "YES": 118.8837325623156}, "probability": 0.9973401965506349, "p": 0.9182762157719598, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11317.640413790159, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1705695819815, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705695820437, "lastBetTime": 1705689533724, "lastCommentTime": 1705646772339, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Arc Browser is a freeware web browser developed by The Browser Company, released in April 2022. It offers a unique user interface and features aimed at improving organization and efficiency in web browsing. Key features include innovative management of tabs and bookmarks, and the ability to create distinct workspaces for different activities or projects. Arc Browser is available for macOS and iOS...", "type": "text"}, {"text": "but not on Windows! They recently started releasing it to betatesters.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters on January 20, 2024?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4jhiOZ8NqW.png?alt=media&token=b1b533dd-b606-42ea-85b4-1a72b170213b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/itsTomekK%2F1b2ced2e6ac5.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "programming", "microsoft", "web-browser"], "textDescription": "Arc Browser is a freeware web browser developed by The Browser Company, released in April 2022. It offers a unique user interface and features aimed at improving organization and efficiency in web browsing. Key features include innovative management of tabs and bookmarks, and the ability to create distinct workspaces for different activities or projects. Arc Browser is available for macOS and iOS...but not on Windows! They recently started releasing it to betatesters.\n\nWill the Arc Browser on Windows be released to more than 2000 betatesters on January 20, 2024?\n\nhttps://www.isarconwindowsyet.com/\n\n\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "gdXiPGTApxCs38N8udNz", "creatorId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "creatorUsername": "Gabrielle", "creatorName": "Gabrielle", "createdTime": 1671061540047, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJwDJ6ZAXuT68UTfLZc5MRPR4vCxG04pHEyT4wDr=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704051073618, "question": "Will Apple allow alternative app stores by the start of 2024?", "slug": "will-apple-allow-alternative-app-st", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-apple-allow-alternative-app-st", "pool": {"NO": 131.34943396623927, "YES": 7745.522717501672}, "probability": 0.023784567147591616, "p": 0.5896122501282577, "totalLiquidity": 1865, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11628.667413189934, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704051073618, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "2VhlvfTaRqZbFn2jqxk2Am9jgsE2", "uniqueBettorCount": 67, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704051074694, "lastBetTime": 1704013195204, "lastCommentTime": 1704051063135, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Apple recently announced that they will allow third-party app stores by the start of 2024, in accordance with EU regulations coming into effect then. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://9to5mac.com/2022/12/13/apple-alternative-app-stores-iphone/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://9to5mac.com/2022/12/13/apple-alternative-app-stores-iphone/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if I can download a third-party app store and then install an app from that app store on my iPhone, and NO otherwise. A situation where the apps need to be signed by Apple would still resolve YES, as long as the alternative app stores are still largely independent. For example, if there's a flat \"verification\" fee that the developer of an app on the app store pays, but sales from the alternate app store do not go to Apple, that would count as third-party. The alternate app store needs to be free to download and installable without having a separate computer (since many iPhone users do not have separate computers).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "My iPhone is not jailbroken and will not be jailbroken; this needs to be a feature supported by Apple. I will run the most up-to-date non-beta iOS version though.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In the event that it is region locked to the EU, and I am not in the EU, I will also resolve this YES if someone who is based in the EU provides concrete proof of this being possible (eg. a video of it being done). The same goes if this is limited to some other region, such as China or India.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market can resolve YES early, in the case where I can successfully do this before the start of 2024.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2YkEaCFePI.png?alt=media&token=d0d6e24a-e366-4a40-ad3b-bef5210da56b", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "apple", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Apple recently announced that they will allow third-party app stores by the start of 2024, in accordance with EU regulations coming into effect then. \n\nhttps://9to5mac.com/2022/12/13/apple-alternative-app-stores-iphone/\n\nThis market will resolve YES if I can download a third-party app store and then install an app from that app store on my iPhone, and NO otherwise. A situation where the apps need to be signed by Apple would still resolve YES, as long as the alternative app stores are still largely independent. For example, if there's a flat \"verification\" fee that the developer of an app on the app store pays, but sales from the alternate app store do not go to Apple, that would count as third-party. The alternate app store needs to be free to download and installable without having a separate computer (since many iPhone users do not have separate computers).\n\n\nMy iPhone is not jailbroken and will not be jailbroken; this needs to be a feature supported by Apple. I will run the most up-to-date non-beta iOS version though.\n\n\nIn the event that it is region locked to the EU, and I am not in the EU, I will also resolve this YES if someone who is based in the EU provides concrete proof of this being possible (eg. a video of it being done). The same goes if this is limited to some other region, such as China or India.\n\nThis market can resolve YES early, in the case where I can successfully do this before the start of 2024."}, {"id": "owsawdZo3nGncgo2mNeM", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690229929547, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1690326000000, "question": "Will Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) Close Higher July 25th Than July 24th?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-60b0f0365348", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-bitcoin-cash-bchusd-close-high-60b0f0365348", "pool": {"NO": 174.47648307285192, "YES": 689.2624899393977}, "probability": 0.11461039039497924, "p": 0.3383497179446155, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1586.0199360332892, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690331136911, "resolutionProbability": 0.11, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690331136039, "lastBetTime": 1690325299770, "lastCommentTime": 1690331133677, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JULY 24th Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "$238.49", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FljqusybUKN.png?alt=media&token=6c0a800e-3f5b-490b-9619-7653071c385e", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation"], "textDescription": "BCH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nJULY 24th Close Value: $238.49\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BCH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "OvvbNiCkS4N2OtzmSTtk", "creatorId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "creatorUsername": "Keepcalmandchill", "creatorName": "Keepcalmandchill", "createdTime": 1698300408166, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNickHeinonen%2FxXholFThhO.jpg?alt=media&token=c0560536-134d-421e-b2ae-240f92e251de", "closeTime": 1704027540000, "question": "Will Maine enact new gun control legislation during 2023?", "slug": "will-maine-enact-new-gun-control-le", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Keepcalmandchill/will-maine-enact-new-gun-control-le", "pool": {"NO": 144.4460242415376, "YES": 1466.126012482831}, "probability": 0.0346382355746466, "p": 0.2669657922123172, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3128.2847206925976, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704098235053, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "XiBsbn1bvKSIRj8A2zsnNrbdMUr2", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704098235387, "lastBetTime": 1703655330318, "lastCommentTime": 1702703466628, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if the State of Maine enacts any new legislation during 2023 that limits the ownership or possession of any firearm in any situation in which it was previously legal. Examples: banning certain firearm types, possession by certain individuals, possession in certain circumstances (such as concealed carry or a specific area).", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Yes if the State of Maine enacts any new legislation during 2023 that limits the ownership or possession of any firearm in any situation in which it was previously legal. Examples: banning certain firearm types, possession by certain individuals, possession in certain circumstances (such as concealed carry or a specific area)."}, {"id": "SCeqvdzz9ZZJFxgiJ2KI", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1691701021115, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1692299700000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on August 17th than it closed on August 16th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-d97413b962d6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-d97413b962d6", "pool": {"NO": 105.46985947567828, "YES": 925.6180443959558}, "probability": 0.06000000000000005, "p": 0.35904791355489196, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1580.224325418336, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1692304481547, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692304481412, "lastBetTime": 1692299606155, "lastCommentTime": 1692304479229, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 3:15pm ET.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FMCuz-nYbg8.png?alt=media&token=4cf81cdd-ba28-4086-af84-533ae0a33157", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : According to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " at the end of the trading day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at 3:15pm ET.\n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : According to the display at https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL at the end of the trading day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "33wzUof1VhgnoaWPm67Z", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679051901348, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1679438995722, "question": "Will Destiny's video \"Rossmann Jumps In To Help Destiny Debate A Heated Expert\" reach 90k views by 3/24 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-video-rossmann-jumps", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-rossmann-jumps", "pool": {"NO": 10330.012869998542, "YES": 25.813657511140264}, "probability": 0.9988847603389545, "p": 0.6911849730031575, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10183.117859045346, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1679438995722, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218507781, "lastBetTime": 1679438990911, "lastCommentTime": 1679435167868, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/6He6HRqBLCI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/6He6HRqBLCI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FoH1kzLYQ0Q.png?alt=media&token=e307c57c-beb9-4295-aa2c-f5fd6ab9f8ae", "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/6He6HRqBLCI\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "L97x89n0yn4AFgjYkb3O", "creatorId": "VSoJiHHO5rZ9DKCdMHxpBAsvY233", "creatorUsername": "TeriDiPiano", "creatorName": "Teri DiPiano", "createdTime": 1697483433952, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocIuj8Kw2DH5YJDJmDLSpoSWBVQgv1JjFiYk4uKV0NNP=s96-c", "closeTime": 1697833896082, "question": "Will Trump violate his gag order before the end of the year?", "slug": "will-trump-violate-his-gag-order-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/TeriDiPiano/will-trump-violate-his-gag-order-be", "pool": {"NO": 268.96243065670313, "YES": 136.3543699360829}, "probability": 0.8776058774995634, "p": 0.7842549390066209, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 177.6501572038432, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697833896082, "resolutionProbability": 0.88, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697505712787, "lastBetTime": 1697505712644, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Acknowledging Trump\u2019s broad right to weigh in on public policy issues as he pursues a second term in the White House, Chutkan said nevertheless that Trump could not launch a \u201cpretrial smear campaign\u201d against those who might testify against him. She said she would consider \u201csanctions\u201d if she observes any violations. She did not elaborate on those sanctions, although she said she planned to issue a written order with further details.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The pronouncement raises the prospect that Trump could face punishment \u2014 ranging from restrictions on his use of social media all the way up to potential pretrial incarceration \u2014 if he continues to mount public attacks on Smith and his team or witnesses likely to testify in his March trial. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "30212473-2628-44da-8ed4-ff30339e9194", "url": "https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/judge-imposes-gag-order-on-donald-trump-in-d-c-trial-00121743", "image": "https://static.politico.com/35/7a/90448a944cf99d07989e1a78f98f/eu-trump-steele-dossier-lawsuit-18163.jpg", "title": "Judge imposes gag order on Donald Trump in D.C. trial", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Judge Tanya Chutkan said Trump's \u201cpresidential candidacy does not give him carte blanche to vilify \u2026 public servants who are simply doing their job.\u201d", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "politics-default", "trial-of-the-century"], "textDescription": "Acknowledging Trump\u2019s broad right to weigh in on public policy issues as he pursues a second term in the White House, Chutkan said nevertheless that Trump could not launch a \u201cpretrial smear campaign\u201d against those who might testify against him. She said she would consider \u201csanctions\u201d if she observes any violations. She did not elaborate on those sanctions, although she said she planned to issue a written order with further details.\n\nThe pronouncement raises the prospect that Trump could face punishment \u2014 ranging from restrictions on his use of social media all the way up to potential pretrial incarceration \u2014 if he continues to mount public attacks on Smith and his team or witnesses likely to testify in his March trial. \n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "nRF0qojPtB4H1I3DiEjs", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1669589093311, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704063540000, "question": "Will Alexander Lukashenko remain President of Belarus by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-alexander-lukashenko-remain-pr-a70e2c4a755e", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-alexander-lukashenko-remain-pr-a70e2c4a755e", "pool": {"NO": 7889.343091643173, "YES": 560.1179377621729}, "probability": 0.9731813589845214, "p": 0.7203810375866315, "totalLiquidity": 1260, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14538.994490996309, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704147307505, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "resolverId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "uniqueBettorCount": 75, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456598600, "lastBetTime": 1703844845726, "lastCommentTime": 1684093893268, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2023, at 11:59 PM ET.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The resolution source for this market is the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F4APg-z5hXi.png?alt=media&token=9c96b400-f598-4d62-9d53-258ff1697ce5", "groupSlugs": ["2024-us-presidential-election", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "europe", "leaders", "central-europe"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve positively if Alexander Lukashenko holds the office of President of Belarus without interruption until 12/31/2023, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Central Intelligence Agency's World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/"}, {"id": "zfAUchDDEeKFVG44iHXq", "creatorId": "YGESBb0Gvud9WRRcx6BnW0Ffq4v2", "creatorUsername": "JoelMcGuire", "creatorName": "Joel McGuire", "createdTime": 1701906130205, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp4GxteRCI3GJrNHEfp02N5mYwSeCTH3oj0S8btq=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704638952361, "question": "Will the Google Gemini LLM market resolve as N/A", "slug": "will-the-google-gemini-llm-market-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JoelMcGuire/will-the-google-gemini-llm-market-r", "pool": {"NO": 122.5995518098193, "YES": 4832.930838519782}, "probability": 0.010194297449559995, "p": 0.28876387191365216, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5711.920120958306, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704638952361, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "YGESBb0Gvud9WRRcx6BnW0Ffq4v2", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704638953165, "lastBetTime": 1704638834417, "lastCommentTime": 1704616715900, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/RH/will-googles-gemini-llm-be-released?r=Sm9lbE1jR3VpcmU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/RH/will-googles-gemini-llm-be-released?r=Sm9lbE1jR3VpcmU", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is resolved N/A this will resolve yes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it is resolved any other way this will resolve no", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It doesn't matter if it is staff resolved. I'll keep this open till January 7th of 2024 to handle if staff re resolve the market ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will not bet in this market ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to resolve this market N/A if RH (owner of the linked market) or the ultimate resolver of the linked market insider trades this market ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JoelMcGuire/fc60da628af7.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=R%2Fc7J5c8xesivI7AgRRm%2FqIqN24DaF00L725akPx%2BZT94ZVws9AzVVjYubGrfP6HuX1obJ9K1nOMt%2FZmNcpC%2BhgNC3xaRKe5E%2FqvtIrVxU0tUOKgEVPlvTDNkQeJyQNvEb5itHCkEJYkt%2BlMdZKiuDdhb8StPedcApRrP0XMCpD0vM%2B%2Bwb8c6ttEEiKHPD1%2F7yxkkSAMn4kGAh78ccUQSF3vUSTTtYegfN4vmJCAY1iljNg%2FADPd45XaXvCxAMaxknoztz9pnlw3Jjrzzc9RJOPrY3NjGZ437yB5nnDDEG4dVr9E%2FYOjx8UCSm6VWI4j%2B%2FEHjO6cONJ38cIrcV%2Fd5A%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["metamarkets", "manifold-6748e065087e"], "textDescription": "This is the market:\n\nhttps://manifold.markets/RH/will-googles-gemini-llm-be-released?r=Sm9lbE1jR3VpcmU\n\nIf it is resolved N/A this will resolve yes\n\nIf it is resolved any other way this will resolve no\n\nIt doesn't matter if it is staff resolved. I'll keep this open till January 7th of 2024 to handle if staff re resolve the market \n\nI will not bet in this market \n\nI reserve the right to resolve this market N/A if RH (owner of the linked market) or the ultimate resolver of the linked market insider trades this market "}, {"id": "qtkj6RlkwhuNKWw6QoLM", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1680801744375, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1681056000000, "question": "Biden vs Trump (3 day market)", "slug": "biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-fabc4ddb5b5f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/biden-vs-trump-3-day-market-fabc4ddb5b5f", "pool": {"NO": 85.80615201234359, "YES": 2930.7167603209773}, "probability": 0.005204822437781538, "p": 0.15160862623988153, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 35506.386105088386, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1681066100558, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716325393376, "lastBetTime": 1681055995664, "lastCommentTime": 1681056452768, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes = Biden ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No = Trump ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes on 4/9/23 9 A.M. PST", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "fun", "gambling", "nonpredictive"], "textDescription": "Yes = Biden \n\nNo = Trump \n\nI will resolve the market in favor of the side that has the higher percentage, which would be at least 51% for YES and 49% for NO.\n\nMarket closes on 4/9/23 9 A.M. PST"}, {"id": "uPTjXw7KcGYxcC4UdDc4", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1678744059104, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1697417762793, "question": "Will Fiji win the 2023 Rugby World Cup?", "slug": "will-fiji-win-the-2023-rugby-world", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-fiji-win-the-2023-rugby-world", "pool": {"NO": 127.06740335675023, "YES": 11888.856646524073}, "probability": 0.0011530585483605265, "p": 0.09747993218998763, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13734.059049838475, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697417762793, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697391657803, "lastBetTime": 1697391657515, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FYCoAZNR0UI.png?alt=media&token=6d814e84-7bfd-4c51-b745-1b82afc8ac33", "groupSlugs": ["rugby", "sports-default", "rugby-union", "2023-rugby-world-cup"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Rugby_World_Cup"}, {"id": "kIC6kVDtoV7F9vW9dme5", "creatorId": "ZWNEJieMCYWlEolmk5zegiX5Uzm1", "creatorUsername": "M_HK_FA", "creatorName": "MHKFA", "createdTime": 1685654821225, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMelvinAndersson%2FPQ9ELEs-JQ.21?alt=media&token=0d57882f-339b-4a7c-8e4c-12c5930d368d", "closeTime": 1688882400000, "question": "Will Robert Whittaker beat Dricus du Plessis at UFC 290?", "slug": "will-robert-whittaker-beat-dricus-d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/M_HK_FA/will-robert-whittaker-beat-dricus-d", "pool": {"NO": 48.86870688592259, "YES": 12038.602956063834}, "probability": 3.7843283698460296e-05, "p": 0.009236775133488188, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12898.85291131132, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688888633621, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688879840531, "lastBetTime": 1688879840410, "lastCommentTime": 1688879022401, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Robert Whittaker is scheduled to fight Dricus du Plessis at UFC 290 July 8th, 2023 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This will be their first fight under MMA rules.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Robert Whittaker wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Dricus du Plessis wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is declared a No Contest or if the fight is canceled, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is moved to a later date, I will change the question wording and resolution date to reflect the new event and date.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FNvbEynE879.png?alt=media&token=23e8b4ee-ec28-44c4-827b-6dd8bcd605a7", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "ufc-290", "ufc", "mma"], "textDescription": "Robert Whittaker is scheduled to fight Dricus du Plessis at UFC 290 July 8th, 2023 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This will be their first fight under MMA rules.\n\nIf Robert Whittaker wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Dricus du Plessis wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is declared a No Contest or if the fight is canceled, this market will resolve to N/A.\n\nIf the fight is moved to a later date, I will change the question wording and resolution date to reflect the new event and date."}, {"id": "T6vmtSFnCxRALD7cGr6I", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1699386410317, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1699657200000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on November 10 than it closed on November 9?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-november-1", "pool": {"NO": 191.31473334002393, "YES": 143.28889889137088}, "probability": 0.5407688431220463, "p": 0.46863653015645274, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 317.717164802787, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699662741469, "resolutionProbability": 0.54, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699662737056, "lastBetTime": 1699656491890, "lastCommentTime": 1699662736393, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.1231", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XLM daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.1231\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "0KV7KmwaYlgStA0ErBT5", "creatorId": "MYB5BBvZTAWnqJBBmjsi0L4VIED3", "creatorUsername": "Jai", "creatorName": "Jai D (Jai)", "createdTime": 1696366784300, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcCmBmdgXbrnZ_1eOckCLwXRBaDVmORqHC5DldKY-0TO8V6=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698542998272, "question": "Will Patrick McHenry remain as speaker pro tempore for 30 days?", "slug": "will-patrick-mchenry-remain-as-spea", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Jai/will-patrick-mchenry-remain-as-spea", "pool": {"NO": 94.22066103516248, "YES": 6181.393769565172}, "probability": 0.014664074042055676, "p": 0.49401966023167093, "totalLiquidity": 1065, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9136.274447890855, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698542998272, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 66, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698542230008, "lastBetTime": 1698503844164, "lastCommentTime": 1698542229363, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Patrick McHenry became speaker pro tempore of the US House of Representatives on October 3, 2023. Resolves YES if he holds this position continiously (e.g. the office of Speaker remains vacant) through 12:01 a.m. EST on November 3, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics"], "textDescription": "Patrick McHenry became speaker pro tempore of the US House of Representatives on October 3, 2023. Resolves YES if he holds this position continiously (e.g. the office of Speaker remains vacant) through 12:01 a.m. EST on November 3, 2023."}, {"id": "YQx7v8KHei4WmooEwOrR", "creatorId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "creatorUsername": "DanMan314", "creatorName": "Dan", "createdTime": 1684868096221, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDanMan314%2F_f4i8nH8a6.jpg?alt=media&token=d2ff79f8-0cea-4acc-99e0-a993f643533a", "closeTime": 1684968377997, "question": "Will Twitter Spaces have major technical issues during the Desantis campaign announcement?", "slug": "will-twitter-spaces-have-major-tech", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-twitter-spaces-have-major-tech", "pool": {"NO": 3324.152449372682, "YES": 1.385033663311333}, "probability": 0.9995402419318181, "p": 0.4752963079546184, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3440.415366786862, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684968377997, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685190152845, "lastBetTime": 1684968363103, "lastCommentTime": 1685190149476, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-presidential-bid-campaign-elon-musk-rcna85288", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-presidential-bid-campaign-elon-musk-rcna85288", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Live, streamed events are hard and often hit unexpected scaling limits when breaching new ground in how many people are tuning in, which might happen at the Desantis announcement event. Will Twitter infra handle it gracefully?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A if it's a bait and it doesn't happen at all.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES if the Twitter Space stream that the livestream is happening on is inaccessible for the majority of users due to technical issues for more than 10 minutes. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F93aF0JQqXc.png?alt=media&token=335fac33-8c85-42e0-bab1-12697f978acc", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default"], "textDescription": "Context: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-presidential-bid-campaign-elon-musk-rcna85288\n\nLive, streamed events are hard and often hit unexpected scaling limits when breaching new ground in how many people are tuning in, which might happen at the Desantis announcement event. Will Twitter infra handle it gracefully?\n\nN/A if it's a bait and it doesn't happen at all.\n\nYES if the Twitter Space stream that the livestream is happening on is inaccessible for the majority of users due to technical issues for more than 10 minutes. "}, {"id": "L4QqLWD1UhaPHvYhiL52", "creatorId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "creatorUsername": "MaxGhenis", "creatorName": "Max Ghenis", "createdTime": 1706648229794, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GgM_UNrjUiqppt7ZynZvdHyNbCIqhj1TB1alkabpaQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1713239940000, "question": "Will the US enact legislation to inflation-index the Child Tax Credit in before the 2023 tax filing deadline?", "slug": "will-the-us-enact-legislation-to-in-9ff0e808adc6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MaxGhenis/will-the-us-enact-legislation-to-in-9ff0e808adc6", "pool": {"NO": 25.559516559824374, "YES": 1563.0954995378236}, "probability": 0.010000000000000035, "p": 0.3818493268822435, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1936.4665227240475, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713281441177, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "QehdMUvBqDcI15ShoOUTMXh17xx2", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713239940000, "lastBetTime": 1713231477384, "lastCommentTime": 1706753743271, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "On January 19, 2024, the US House Ways and Means Committee approved ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "H.R.7024 - Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7024", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ". This bill makes four changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), including indexing the Child Tax Credit to inflation beginning in 2024 (Sec. 103).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve TRUE if, by 2024-04-15 (the 2023 tax filing deadline), the US enacts legislation that inflation-indexes the Child Tax Credit beginning in 2024. If the US extends the tax filing deadline, I will extend the market accordingly.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MaxGhenis%2Fa6f646cce5d7.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["tax", "us-child-tax-credit", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "On January 19, 2024, the US House Ways and Means Committee approved H.R.7024 - Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. This bill makes four changes to the Child Tax Credit (CTC), including indexing the Child Tax Credit to inflation beginning in 2024 (Sec. 103).\n\nThis will resolve TRUE if, by 2024-04-15 (the 2023 tax filing deadline), the US enacts legislation that inflation-indexes the Child Tax Credit beginning in 2024. If the US extends the tax filing deadline, I will extend the market accordingly."}, {"id": "COR9k3X4gvqSVehSKQEk", "creatorId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "creatorUsername": "BoltonBailey", "creatorName": "Bolton Bailey", "createdTime": 1673380529850, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoltonBailey%2Fsandpile.gif?alt=media&token=0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103", "closeTime": 1676793540000, "question": "I applied to this postdoc, will I get interviewed?", "slug": "if-i-apply-to-this-postdoc-will-i-g", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/if-i-apply-to-this-postdoc-will-i-g", "pool": {"NO": 187.7566042195924, "YES": 622.4266352748488}, "probability": 0.09419796487677935, "p": 0.2563659937705331, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1673.6198243646559, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1676800204407, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1676957284715, "lastBetTime": 1676788788770, "lastCommentTime": 1676957281730, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I saw ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this posting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://elxw.fa.em3.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/CandidateExperience/en/sites/CX_1001/job/6208/?utm_medium=jobshare", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " on the Lean Zulip forum. I was thinking about emailing the Prof with some questions and then applying. If I do this, will I get interviewed/video call Dr. Grosser within a month of doing so?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-02-18 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Update: I applied, this will resolve in a month.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 18, 10:56am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If I apply to this postdoc, will I get interviewed?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 I applied to this postdoc, will I get interviewed?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FJQxuCezwi3.png?alt=media&token=e8a9598b-d849-4c21-8139-5b0dbb52b2a9", "groupSlugs": ["personal-goals"], "textDescription": "I saw this posting on the Lean Zulip forum. I was thinking about emailing the Prof with some questions and then applying. If I do this, will I get interviewed/video call Dr. Grosser within a month of doing so?\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-02-18 11:59 pm\n\nUpdate: I applied, this will resolve in a month.\n\nJan 18, 10:56am: If I apply to this postdoc, will I get interviewed? \u2192 I applied to this postdoc, will I get interviewed?"}, {"id": "g6S2h7vi0GHbDRkJjVOj", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1685827365268, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1690904478722, "question": "Will Manifold have over 900 Engaged Users by July 31st, 2023?", "slug": "will-manifold-have-over-900-engaged-ab7dddb15c83", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-manifold-have-over-900-engaged-ab7dddb15c83", "pool": {"NO": 162.21257622715632, "YES": 30860.12161194795}, "probability": 0.001601472503975334, "p": 0.23381085128326995, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 39216.52405696103, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690904478722, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690904473973, "lastBetTime": 1690904473835, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes as soon as there is a day with 900 or more Engaged Users.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No if this doesn't happen by July 31st", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "afe780e7-765f-4bbd-9ada-852836a893a9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stats", "image": "https://manifold.markets/logo-cover.png", "title": "Manifold Markets", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Create your own prediction market. Unfold the future.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FZbWqaZwteZ.png?alt=media&token=d0745b45-d0d9-4d1c-b3df-18f99337d8fe", "groupSlugs": ["manifold-user-retention"], "textDescription": "https://manifold.markets/stats\n\nResolves Yes as soon as there is a day with 900 or more Engaged Users.\n\nResolves No if this doesn't happen by July 31st\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "mlGvspwx4TnvMSu4qKgz", "creatorId": "kCaLmtLo0OgbTmqFF9tMmVMFPuY2", "creatorUsername": "bagelman", "creatorName": "bagelman", "createdTime": 1673873752542, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fbagelman%2F7Mh25zg6PB.jpg?alt=media&token=b91fde39-1078-4c38-89c2-45d8f41eb1eb", "closeTime": 1674350100000, "question": "Will the Philadelphia Eagles defeat the New York Giants in the NFL Divisional Round?", "slug": "will-the-philadelphia-eagles-defeat", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bagelman/will-the-philadelphia-eagles-defeat", "pool": {"NO": 342.7606395224557, "YES": 282.49685218194946}, "probability": 0.6808749717785492, "p": 0.637477115797542, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 912.4797636928782, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1674388823691, "resolutionProbability": 0.68, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1674576317012, "lastBetTime": 1674345657455, "lastCommentTime": 1674576313546, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "OTHTjloGeN75bq6qxwh3", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700420407446, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700951583891, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will UAB beat North Texas?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-uab-beat-north-tex", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-uab-beat-north-tex", "pool": {"NO": 19.760373803261118, "YES": 975.0641236781811}, "probability": 0.020000000000000004, "p": 0.5017510751633819, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2120.760913675643, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700951583891, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700951575804, "lastBetTime": 1700951575804, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 2 PM ET in Denton, TX.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UAB 6", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", North Texas 1, Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "UAB 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", North Texas 1, Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/52a62f4ec545.png?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=WJAfieAn1DdiSOqKS9LbhaocYeMn1nFsiyJuQd4QFoY9g4aIJJ%2FGZfDAbxMPRFJrTpfU1mt0nyHzfZHzW9K555PnB8UynZoO9CeX2%2BmS5H%2F1x%2FRkwEl%2Bxm6Bvzsd%2FQni2yep%2Fe6tuxUlj5YIa0%2FlaNaknHoze5dh6X6TIZFsznqvYqujY5pd0Mj3GmxVhnNdeb%2FUFtNeCpfrs2HP%2FBCoGtly%2B1Ls%2B2LgvnkMl%2F40wVhlDOiF6t%2FATy4TRtOEGaT33bkyh%2FUFKXMKubD66mtVETxz3IAWkZ76UpSWHEJ5Q3f2MACkSRf6BpL%2BgvRVT8ZVAFVfw41P%2Fw4xZmnCiMdHlw%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "aac"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 2 PM ET in Denton, TX.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: UAB 6, North Texas 1, Tie 0\n\nLast 5: UAB 4, North Texas 1, Tie 0"}, {"id": "jsGUfnPrJaNNuovIlnot", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1684412867452, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1684665363643, "question": "Will Edmen Shahbazyan beat Anthony Hernandez?", "slug": "will-edmen-shahbazyan-beat-anthony", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-edmen-shahbazyan-beat-anthony", "pool": {"NO": 26.865721834812575, "YES": 25606.169811320753}, "probability": 0.0002117416715728643, "p": 0.16795444994397346, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 25482, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684665363643, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684665321961, "lastBetTime": 1684665321842, "lastCommentTime": 1684644447135, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edmen Shahbazyan is scheduled to fight Anthony Hernandez at a UFC event in Las Vegas on May 20th, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Edmen Shahbazyan wins, this market will resolve to YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Anthony Hernandez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FOIAj-VvrQG.png?alt=media&token=eb46aa37-cc97-4da3-9dc6-1b2e9a178a05", "groupSlugs": ["combat-sports", "ufc", "mma"], "textDescription": "Edmen Shahbazyan is scheduled to fight Anthony Hernandez at a UFC event in Las Vegas on May 20th, 2023.\n\nIf Edmen Shahbazyan wins, this market will resolve to YES.\n\nIf Anthony Hernandez wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.\n\nIf the fight is cancelled or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A."}, {"id": "rtz346aNIWJxVExmnuJD", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1712259909842, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1713043912728, "question": "Will Iran launch an air, missile, or drone strike on any part of Israel or Palestine before the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-iran-missile-strike-any-part-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-iran-missile-strike-any-part-o", "pool": {"NO": 6785.947847136241, "YES": 165.7615391203326}, "probability": 0.9882796253216826, "p": 0.6731744378079837, "totalLiquidity": 800, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8079.565637581937, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713043912728, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 39, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713131153349, "lastBetTime": 1713043908280, "lastCommentTime": 1713131152851, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "iran", "wars", "geopolitics", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "arabisraeli-conflict", "palestine", "middle-east"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "3FkuDVt3hdRfqRUjTeh0", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678043210534, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678510905672, "question": "Will Destiny's video \"MrGirl's Going To Stop Destiny Before He Kills Someo\" reach 180k views or more by 3/12 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-video-mrgirls-going-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-video-mrgirls-going-t", "pool": {"NO": 11447.393689461203, "YES": 34.52280404937483}, "probability": 0.9989349204278968, "p": 0.7388003866918001, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11594.119486946574, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678510905672, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218507890, "lastBetTime": 1678510899624, "lastCommentTime": 1678510776885, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/3rI9e740J7M", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/3rI9e740J7M", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FstHz57wRcK.png?alt=media&token=675058ab-198b-4846-b314-570922cf4ea3", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/3rI9e740J7M\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "Ue4WuBLCjAWalc1OxyKv", "creatorId": "63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2", "creatorUsername": "Haribo", "creatorName": "Haribo", "createdTime": 1715632979480, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaydon%2Fv6qxUCiuAD.jpg?alt=media&token=21dc1702-38b4-441c-8c7f-e96e7084fcfd", "closeTime": 1715645362413, "question": "NBA Playoffs: Game 4 Boston Celtics Vs Cleveland Cavaliers: Will Boston Score More Points During The 2nd Quarter?", "slug": "nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-cf7f5e5c7264", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haribo/nba-playoffs-game-4-boston-celtics-cf7f5e5c7264", "pool": {"NO": 10.050378152592089, "YES": 994.9874371066171}, "probability": 0.01, "p": 0.5000000000000001, "totalLiquidity": 100, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1440.7093662607977, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715645362413, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "63I0ceD7FEPXr8C2GQNAG2FpXhb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715645362413, "lastBetTime": 1715645300910, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "50% if Both Teams score same point total in 2nd quarter", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haydon/3b132daecff1.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nba", "nba-playoffs", "sports-default", "20232024-nba-season"], "textDescription": "Yes if Boston scores more points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.\n\nNo if Boston scores less points than Cleveland during the 2nd quarter.\n\n50% if Both Teams score same point total in 2nd quarter"}, {"id": "H2FT0T8UWZdfVcvNNjoI", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1703595493977, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1703797200000, "question": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?", "slug": "will-apple-nyse-aapl-close-at-under", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-apple-nyse-aapl-close-at-under", "pool": {"NO": 287.4594123683433, "YES": 2272.014878301178}, "probability": 0.03548302908484488, "p": 0.22526697233380424, "totalLiquidity": 510, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3096.786158530848, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703886933339, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703886933858, "lastBetTime": 1703796687057, "lastCommentTime": 1703886918072, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DIS:NYSE?window=YTD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 24 hours prior to 4pm Friday Dec. 29th 2023 Market Close.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ban is lifted during the time this market is open with proof from the same source I have provided, this market will N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SOURCE LINK", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/biden-administration-allows-us-trade-tribunals-ban-apple-watch-imports-2023-12-26/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F_xb0QEkoEp.png?alt=media&token=13182e2f-a422-4b71-8ca9-bebbd5150cbf", "title": null}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "UPDATE: 12/27/2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a \"Pause\" and NOT a definitive lifting of the ban.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/apple-wins-bid-pause-apple-watch-ban-us-appeals-court-2023-12-27/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1740049840703193286"}}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pause Period(s means the period(s) of time between dates, which You have specified, where Your cover for Legal Liability shall temporarily not apply. For the avoidance of doubt, You a", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "re not entitled to make a claim for an event which occurs during the Pause Period.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Lifting = the action of ending a rule or law: the lifting of a ban/injunction/embargo.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DISCLAIMER", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SirCryptomind%2Fce94439902df.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "stocks", "technology-default", "apple"], "textDescription": "Will Apple (NYSE: AAPL) Close At Under $189 Per Share During The Apple Watch Ban By Market Close On Dec 29th 2023?\n\nResolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nThis market closes 24 hours prior to 4pm Friday Dec. 29th 2023 Market Close.\n\nIf the ban is lifted during the time this market is open with proof from the same source I have provided, this market will N/A.\n\nContext: SOURCE LINK\n\n[image]UPDATE: 12/27/2023\n\nThis is a \"Pause\" and NOT a definitive lifting of the ban.\n\n[tweet]Pause Period(s means the period(s) of time between dates, which You have specified, where Your cover for Legal Liability shall temporarily not apply. For the avoidance of doubt, You are not entitled to make a claim for an event which occurs during the Pause Period.\n\nLifting = the action of ending a rule or law: the lifting of a ban/injunction/embargo.\n\nDASHBOARD\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\nDISCLAIMER\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nDO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.\n\nIf Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.\n"}, {"id": "W6QMEpvgHvRrZoiXKbVT", "creatorId": "uglwf3YKOZNGjjEXKc5HampOFRE2", "creatorUsername": "SirSalty", "creatorName": "David Chee", "createdTime": 1689981197928, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDavidChee%2F_b3ccXzGCL.jpg?alt=media&token=720bee22-7237-4454-a36b-b18dac7680bd", "closeTime": 1695539999787, "question": "Will Kalshi's Filing 23-01 be approved by the CTFC?", "slug": "will-kalshis-filing-2301-be-approve", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirSalty/will-kalshis-filing-2301-be-approve", "pool": {"NO": 56.769406396502724, "YES": 3526.407251991391}, "probability": 0.0063581091058313765, "p": 0.28442668190725345, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3655.4531178105326, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695539999787, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695540010034, "lastBetTime": 1695416115024, "lastCommentTime": 1695540009398, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7B25J9P8xj.png?alt=media&token=a4bc3020-0bcd-49e8-9d46-00077042fe22", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=7394", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=7394", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "I'm not super familiar with CFTC filing processes, but I assume approve is the right word? Essentially if the CTFC allows them to make these sorts of markets then this will resolve yes. But it has to be in response to this particular filing.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["kalshi"], "textDescription": "[image]https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentForm.aspx?id=7394\n\nI'm not super familiar with CFTC filing processes, but I assume approve is the right word? Essentially if the CTFC allows them to make these sorts of markets then this will resolve yes. But it has to be in response to this particular filing."}, {"id": "KZnprihiTi0OmavqMVQO", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1697765563802, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1697785500000, "question": "Will WA flight 1440 from Aberdeen to Amsterdam on 2023-10-20 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?", "slug": "will-wa-flight-1440-from-aberdeen-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-wa-flight-1440-from-aberdeen-t", "pool": {"NO": 132.58345002916744, "YES": 48.37853897434982}, "probability": 0.9878149977619711, "p": 0.9672999999999999, "totalLiquidity": 50, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 211.89080671503334, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697817254883, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697770660628, "lastBetTime": 1697770660369, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/2tjfzbtv", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/2tjfzbtv", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": [], "textDescription": "!!!ALERT!!!: YES now means arrival delay (in line with Wingman website), while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/2tjfzbtv"}, {"id": "WjP6Iyi5Izp65wg55T35", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1695664452202, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1695754800000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on September 26th than it closed on September 25th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-c347b295bd0a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-c347b295bd0a", "pool": {"NO": 94.20483348019083, "YES": 883.7753779707264}, "probability": 0.06000000000000006, "p": 0.37453646305453353, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 836.4268658208372, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695763469932, "resolutionProbability": 0.06, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695763467793, "lastBetTime": 1695750151351, "lastCommentTime": 1695763467188, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u033615p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1  315pm ET(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7KdRUAQmuV.png?alt=media&token=e4771842-8d3e-487b-a14e-3f5f4bb856b9", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsV8v18vIGr.png?alt=media&token=199f342c-0d69-41d1-9583-f249deca193d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/questions?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at  \u0336 \u03362\u033615p\u0336m\u0336 \u0336E\u0336T\u0336 1  315pm ET(715pm UTC)\n\n1 Hour EXTRA Past The Normal 2pm ET (6pm UTC) Close For September Only!!\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nFor The 4th Quarter & Any Head Start Markets Follow \u25b2SC-CS-Q4-23\u25b2"}, {"id": "uPgzUzvzvavmZb7uM3Ac", "creatorId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "creatorUsername": "Soli", "creatorName": "Soli \uaa5c", "createdTime": 1702709390485, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSoli%2FdFEQMzdPmS.png?alt=media&token=2bf72f44-15d4-4349-b8d8-036e569a957f", "closeTime": 1711922340000, "question": "Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users before April 2024?", "slug": "will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f", "pool": {"NO": 177.48877190456528, "YES": 13411.452931135205}, "probability": 0.008557123841690446, "p": 0.39473774598238653, "totalLiquidity": 1145, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 37877.56130724765, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711923118855, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "xQqqZqlgcoSxTgPe03BiXmVE2JJ2", "uniqueBettorCount": 103, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711922340000, "lastBetTime": 1711919233995, "lastCommentTime": 1708585094319, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Free Access Conditions: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like \"GPT-4-lite\" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Exclusion Criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edge Cases", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f-d2d3ffadbd8b?r=U29saQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FICTHZTY9dh.49?alt=media&token=7e2b1800-0282-4f81-b234-bf9251096345", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "language-models", "gpt4-speculation", "chatgpt"], "textDescription": "Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like \"GPT-4-lite\" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:\n\nPermanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)\n\nLimited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)\n\nAccess through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.\n\nExclusion Criteria\n\nTrials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.\n\nAccess to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.\n\nEdge Cases\n\nIf a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.\n\nIf OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f-d2d3ffadbd8b?r=U29saQ)"}, {"id": "M1KGPDVVB1Bm0j8T5JNR", "creatorId": "U2ZX1wN2d3SoDPX82g4IYXVM9ao1", "creatorUsername": "Johnmoe", "creatorName": "John moe", "createdTime": 1672781234526, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3dWXXZ-WJIPGJNRT16STAmRw0JDh8UK2iJ9ApH4g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088860000, "question": "Will Twitter permanently ban Destiny by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-twitter-permanently-ban-destin", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Johnmoe/will-twitter-permanently-ban-destin", "pool": {"NO": 245.49130686208548, "YES": 2769.376374802701}, "probability": 0.02174627559105762, "p": 0.20049384850599797, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3438.6843720057323, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704156532907, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 24, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704156533112, "lastBetTime": 1704068645547, "lastCommentTime": 1704156529310, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market closes midnight 1/01/24 or If ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " is permanently banned from twitter.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Vote, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if you believe Twitter will permanently ban Destiny by the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Vote, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "No", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if you believe Twitter will not permanently ban Destiny by the end of 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Feel free to ask me any questions in the comment section.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Description formatting from Versuch.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fr8nDlFxT3h.png?alt=media&token=c4d6afbd-912b-4367-a4bd-a15fb42c39c9", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Market closes midnight 1/01/24 or If https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal is permanently banned from twitter.\n\nVote, Yes if you believe Twitter will permanently ban Destiny by the end of 2023.\nVote, No if you believe Twitter will not permanently ban Destiny by the end of 2023.\n\nFeel free to ask me any questions in the comment section.\n\nDescription formatting from Versuch."}, {"id": "KLtlaq3F8iqb2uG9A9pP", "creatorId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "creatorUsername": "xyz", "creatorName": "Yona", "createdTime": 1685829514280, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FYoav%2FR0iyH_7-6l.jpeg?alt=media&token=21944a76-17f4-49cd-99c0-05d4951471d1", "closeTime": 1694363090737, "question": "Will Sheinbaum be selected as MORENA's 2024 presidential candidate?", "slug": "will-sheinbaum-be-selected-as-moren", "url": "https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-sheinbaum-be-selected-as-moren", "pool": {"NO": 3189.1848567606735, "YES": 76.82570057380867}, "probability": 0.9976591685280335, "p": 0.9112443586806251, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23399.662759844578, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694363090737, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695141276046, "lastBetTime": 1694276745768, "lastCommentTime": 1695141274089, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. According to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "opinion polls", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Mexican_general_election#Opinion_polls", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Claudia Sheinbaum", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudia_Sheinbaum", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\u2014currently the mayor of Mexico City\u2014is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "MORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. The selection process for the MORENA candidate is based on two surveys sent to party members in July/August and September/October. AMLO has indicated that Sheinbaum is his preferred candidate.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Economist writes in ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Mexico could elect its first female president next year\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/05/23/mexico-could-elect-its-first-female-president-next-year", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ":", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ms Sheinbaum is not the only contender to be Morena\u2019s candidate for the presidency. Her closest rival is Marcelo Ebrard, the foreign minister. He is \u201cthe firefighter-in-chief\u201d for Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s government, says someone close to him. His ministry leads talks with the United States on everything from migration to energy. After Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador initially refused to condemn Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, it was Mr Ebrard who reassured President Joe Biden\u2019s administration that Mexico remained an ally. His diplomacy also ensured that Mexico received vaccines during the pandemic. Until recently, he was better known among Mexicans than Ms Sheinbaum.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "However, Ms Sheinbaum enjoys a widening lead over Mr Ebrard. Opinion polls place her eight percentage points ahead of him. It helps that she is the president\u2019s preferred candidate. For several months Morena\u2019s activists have plastered signs declaring \u201cEs Claudia\u201d (\u201cIt\u2019s Claudia\u201d) across the country\u2014possibly in violation of Mexico\u2019s strict campaign laws.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Her nomination seems assured. Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador says Morena\u2019s candidate will be decided by two surveys this summer. But concerns abound about their fairness, such as over which company will run them and what questions the public will be asked. Many worry, including some within Morena, that the process will be akin to that under the pri, when the leader chose his successor, a process known as the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "dedazo", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", or big finger.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is selected as the MORENA party candidate for 2024's presidential election, and NO otherwise. I will change the closing date to be whenever the results are announced, when that date is known.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FuCQR7heKFi.png?alt=media&token=70252550-b931-44c5-89ae-ef3f0e21b7f0", "groupSlugs": ["mexico", "mexican-politics", "elections-world", "world-default"], "textDescription": "Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum\u2014currently the mayor of Mexico City\u2014is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.\n\nMORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. The selection process for the MORENA candidate is based on two surveys sent to party members in July/August and September/October. AMLO has indicated that Sheinbaum is his preferred candidate.\n\nThe Economist writes in \"Mexico could elect its first female president next year\":\n\nMs Sheinbaum is not the only contender to be Morena\u2019s candidate for the presidency. Her closest rival is Marcelo Ebrard, the foreign minister. He is \u201cthe firefighter-in-chief\u201d for Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador\u2019s government, says someone close to him. His ministry leads talks with the United States on everything from migration to energy. After Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador initially refused to condemn Vladimir Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, it was Mr Ebrard who reassured President Joe Biden\u2019s administration that Mexico remained an ally. His diplomacy also ensured that Mexico received vaccines during the pandemic. Until recently, he was better known among Mexicans than Ms Sheinbaum.\n\nHowever, Ms Sheinbaum enjoys a widening lead over Mr Ebrard. Opinion polls place her eight percentage points ahead of him. It helps that she is the president\u2019s preferred candidate. For several months Morena\u2019s activists have plastered signs declaring \u201cEs Claudia\u201d (\u201cIt\u2019s Claudia\u201d) across the country\u2014possibly in violation of Mexico\u2019s strict campaign laws.\n\nHer nomination seems assured. Mr L\u00f3pez Obrador says Morena\u2019s candidate will be decided by two surveys this summer. But concerns abound about their fairness, such as over which company will run them and what questions the public will be asked. Many worry, including some within Morena, that the process will be akin to that under the pri, when the leader chose his successor, a process known as the dedazo, or big finger.\n\nThis market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is selected as the MORENA party candidate for 2024's presidential election, and NO otherwise. I will change the closing date to be whenever the results are announced, when that date is known."}, {"id": "p9t9gBBZAHRVuPf5ecQl", "creatorId": "kdGYA9EW5ecVYSsswFGv2L1Hxze2", "creatorUsername": "GreyBox", "creatorName": "Grey Box", "createdTime": 1694373908985, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcgcLF6_hQzuAGLru0yBQSqgd02HTNIqX1dO_RW6M3v=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694597400000, "question": "Will NIFTY 50 (NIFTY) close higher on September 13 than it closed on September 12?", "slug": "will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-6d224c035b6c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/GreyBox/will-nifty-50-nifty-close-higher-on-6d224c035b6c", "pool": {"NO": 1099.3726688742026, "YES": 152.90046538317432}, "probability": 0.9581178073551166, "p": 0.7608603541012631, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1640.4786644054197, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694623952338, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710462517137, "lastBetTime": 1694595990258, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 2}, "content": [{"text": "What is NIFTY 50?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "e9690a77-c5f4-4f12-8f0b-f37e8ecac0d1", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "NIFTY 50 Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest NIFTY 50 (NIFTY_50) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "metamarkets", "india", "asia", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "nifty", "short-fuse"], "textDescription": "What is NIFTY 50?\n\nThe NIFTY 50 is an index of the country\u2019s top 50 companies by market capitalization that are listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is one of the two most referenced barometers used by investors to track how the \u201cIndian stock market is doing\u201d. The other is the Sensex \u2013 a similar index of 30 stocks managed by the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).\u00a0\n\nQuestion closes at 9.30 am GMT i..e. 3 pm IST\n\nResolves based on below website at 11.30 am GMT i.e. 5 pm IST -\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/NIFTY_50:INDEXNSE\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "SI6xCdcRF2DV9Zs3WT9G", "creatorId": "S67z2NQPG2ayYQUDayis7Qne6313", "creatorUsername": "SIMOROBO", "creatorName": "SIMOROBO", "createdTime": 1702770595832, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSIMOROBO%2FOkHB_V0imv.png?alt=media&token=fd87ab66-75e6-46b9-8c8f-b945f8327307", "closeTime": 1715735520557, "question": "Will GPT-5 be publicly released before Ilya Sutskever leaves OpenAI?", "slug": "will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo", "pool": {"NO": 32.434680321019755, "YES": 3568.7827096084234}, "probability": 0.010427659558404277, "p": 0.5369178379111287, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4251.3301223568515, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715735520557, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "S67z2NQPG2ayYQUDayis7Qne6313", "uniqueBettorCount": 26, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715735520557, "lastBetTime": 1715729480247, "lastCommentTime": 1715733132762, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as \"GPT-5\" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Ilya Sutskever's employment at OpenAI ends.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "A \"major successor\" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\"Publicly available\" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Examples:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-5: YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Chat 5: YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4.5: NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "GPT-4.5-Turbo: NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Roboto: YES (if major release); NO (if minor update or single domain).", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sutskever's departure is effective from the date he ceases employment at OpenAI, regardless of any ongoing advisory or board roles. Announced future departures are not considered until the specified date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo-5c86a46a3bac", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonParadis%2Fbe5044f1edaa.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["openai", "gpt5-speculation", "ai-safety", "ai", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "This resolves YES if a major successor to GPT-4, referred to as \"GPT-5\" or another name (rebrand), becomes publicly available before Ilya Sutskever's employment at OpenAI ends.\n\nA \"major successor\" is defined as a significantly improved model over GPT-4, excluding minor updates, and single domain specialists (e.g., a programming or math product that outperforms GPT-4 in those domains but not significantly otherwise). It also excludes optimized models of GPT-4 with similar quality performance but improved speed or cost.\n\n\"Publicly available\" means accessible in any commercial manner, including free access, subscription models, external developer APIs, or Bing integration, pending official confirmation.\n\n\nExamples:\n\nGPT-5: YES\n\nChat 5: YES\n\nGPT-4.5: NO\n\nGPT-4.5-Turbo: NO\n\nRoboto: YES (if major release); NO (if minor update or single domain).\n\n\nSutskever's departure is effective from the date he ceases employment at OpenAI, regardless of any ongoing advisory or board roles. Announced future departures are not considered until the specified date.\n\nRelated:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/SIMOROBO/will-gpt5-be-publicly-released-befo-5c86a46a3bac)"}, {"id": "5DbLdwyfVLPgijN39JsY", "creatorId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "creatorUsername": "SneakySly", "creatorName": "SneakySly", "createdTime": 1658730208847, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e", "closeTime": 1670437431509, "question": "Will Elon Musk still be the richest man in the world all year long?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-still-be-the-richest", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-elon-musk-still-be-the-richest", "pool": {"NO": 40.08071177551998, "YES": 1421.4356228583918}, "probability": 0.031704584472620555, "p": 0.5372934848406199, "totalLiquidity": 380, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5402.009507774732, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1670437431509, "resolutionProbability": 0.031704584472620555, "uniqueBettorCount": 23, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451912279, "lastBetTime": 1670432204409, "lastCommentTime": 1672221809816, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Based on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-words hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " will Elon Musk maintain his position as the richest man in the world? ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If at any point, someone else reaches #1 this market resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES at resolution.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"], "textDescription": "Based on https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ will Elon Musk maintain his position as the richest man in the world? \n\nIf at any point, someone else reaches #1 this market resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES at resolution."}, {"id": "jRjfVptWevnqATH3mzdr", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1697609980283, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1700034080111, "question": "Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 15th November be below 7%?", "slug": "will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a", "pool": {"NO": 101371.52601546464, "YES": 81.48390275605198}, "probability": 0.9998816451533606, "p": 0.8716428191321386, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 101158.40200566698, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700034080111, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700034070614, "lastBetTime": 1700034070415, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 15th November.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "January 2023 - 10.5%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "February 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "March 2023 - 10.4%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "April 2023 - 10.1%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 2023 - 8.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "June 2023 - 8.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "July 2023 - 7.9%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "August 2023 - 6.8%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "September 2023 - 6.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "October 2023 - 6.7%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "November 2023 - TBC", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Some other UK financial markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "fla8Hhr6h6V0w1AbZBmh", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "f1XHEVMh0D8ILKftBLSY", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "inflation", "uk", "economics-default", "uk-economic-data", "finance"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 15th November.\n\nThis includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.\n\nHere are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):\n\nJanuary 2023 - 10.5%\n\nFebruary 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMarch 2023 - 10.4%\n\nApril 2023 - 10.1%\n\nMay 2023 - 8.7%\n\nJune 2023 - 8.7%\n\nJuly 2023 - 7.9%\n\nAugust 2023 - 6.8%\n\nSeptember 2023 - 6.7%\n\nOctober 2023 - 6.7%\n\nNovember 2023 - TBC\n\n(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 7.0%)\n\nSome other UK financial markets:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-e2de754262d5 "}, {"id": "f4YCmJN6nqBxhVTITdJp", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700849413380, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1701457200000, "question": "Will GOOG close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 26]", "slug": "will-goog-close-higher-on-friday-th-460dbecf86e0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-goog-close-higher-on-friday-th-460dbecf86e0", "pool": {"NO": 69.01439425035218, "YES": 521.3010660318382}, "probability": 0.08554370833138879, "p": 0.41403984566877455, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 688.67161436309, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701466655700, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701466652249, "lastBetTime": 1701456641115, "lastCommentTime": 1701466651561, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "$", "type": "text"}, {"text": "138.05", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $138.05\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ\n\nNOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "N9qYhObMY6Z3E4iUjWwg", "creatorId": "OPBtogfMc4XqtIltNzSGck6y3Cx1", "creatorUsername": "JonathanMann", "creatorName": "Jonathan Mann", "createdTime": 1697942150163, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhGqet__ZxQQEFkGGhvNQAdMw9j0AMIeJOQr6uE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1701406740000, "question": "According to Google Finance, will 1 BTC be worth at least 17 ETH on December 1st, 2023?", "slug": "according-to-google-finance-will-1-d5f81c38b185", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanMann/according-to-google-finance-will-1-d5f81c38b185", "pool": {"NO": 1708.9367607919023, "YES": 88.1011740526249}, "probability": 0.9748410434640427, "p": 0.6663938258545509, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4033.615911848912, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701523756445, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701350431616, "lastBetTime": 1701350431243, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The outcome will be determined from the\u00a0month view price for December 1st using\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M\ufffc\ufffcThe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M\ufffc\ufffcThe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M\ufffc\ufffcThe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "The information to resolve the question should be available on December 2nd. If the view in the link is not available for more than a week after the resolution, the question will resolve as N/A. Price fluctuations during the day of December 1st are not important for the purposes of this question, only the price recorded in the monthly view as linked above.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "958f426f-d008-40de-9ec6-24d1074d609f", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Bitcoin (BTC) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketAccording to Google Finance, will 1 BTC be worth more than 16 ETH on September 1st, 2023?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVE", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Bitcoin (BTC / ETH) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "The outcome will be determined from the\u00a0month view price for December 1st using\u00a0\u00a0\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-ETH?window=1M\n\nThe information to resolve the question should be available on December 2nd. If the view in the link is not available for more than a week after the resolution, the question will resolve as N/A. Price fluctuations during the day of December 1st are not important for the purposes of this question, only the price recorded in the monthly view as linked above.\n\n \n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "m9UMfKBTQXDNLGLC859D", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1694725111043, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1695834404956, "question": "Will the WGA strike end by October 15?", "slug": "will-the-wga-strike-end-by-october", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-the-wga-strike-end-by-october", "pool": {"NO": 85267.14243816427, "YES": 247.6114073708868}, "probability": 0.9995517115524867, "p": 0.8662199051860661, "totalLiquidity": 670, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 91959.25907267604, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695834404956, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 35, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695834399346, "lastBetTime": 1695834399068, "lastCommentTime": 1695778501829, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.wga.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wga.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "; WGAE: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.wgaeast.org/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wgaeast.org/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "5c60e48d-914a-4c4b-9148-c1a023c07153", "url": "https://www.wgaeast.org/", "image": "https://www.wgaeast.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/07/yoastseologo_facebook.png", "title": "Writers Guild of America, East | Giving Writers the Credit They Deserve", "inputKey": "create marketWill the WGA strike end by September 30?", "deleteNode": null, "description": "The WGA East is a labor union representing those who write & create content for motion pictures, television, news, and digital media.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["hollywood", "television-film", "strikes"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by October 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "foX4lTgktgwgLhQxn5hD", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1697743703064, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1697814000000, "question": "Will CAC 40 close higher october 20th than the close of october 19th?", "slug": "will-cac-40-close-higher-october-20", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-cac-40-close-higher-october-20", "pool": {"NO": 28.00689192927382, "YES": 1012.1652820497196}, "probability": 0.014474073780104454, "p": 0.34673549950534, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1272.7352288190311, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697818285079, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697818280844, "lastBetTime": 1697811509501, "lastCommentTime": 1697818280094, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FS5X6yMHvHM.png?alt=media&token=63ce9bdc-b991-4e05-b77a-66e738998c32", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "sccsq4", "stocks"], "textDescription": "CAC 40 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/PX1:INDEXEURO at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day).\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "0FgEzG4mwktim7VFCuRh", "creatorId": "IPTOzEqrpkWmEzh6hwvAyY9PqFb2", "creatorUsername": "Manifold", "creatorName": "Manifold", "createdTime": 1670881601475, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FManifoldMarkets%2FpZ4vplqZ5o.png?alt=media&token=67f66a52-84d1-46b7-a49e-82621e62e5e4", "closeTime": 1671048000000, "question": "Will France eliminate Morocco in the Semis?", "slug": "will-france-eliminate-morocco-in-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Manifold/will-france-eliminate-morocco-in-th", "pool": {"NO": 3220.832721090884, "YES": 1037.4141580444473}, "probability": 0.8916162092348129, "p": 0.7260052957268733, "totalLiquidity": 1450, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12684.12094638175, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1671084503800, "resolutionProbability": 0.89, "uniqueBettorCount": 48, "lastUpdatedTime": 1671082520331, "lastBetTime": 1671047873280, "lastCommentTime": 1671082496431, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES = France wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "NO = Morocco wins", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to whichever team wins and advances to the finals.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "See details and google's win probability here", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?q=world+cup&rlz=1C1ONGR_en-GBGB1003GB1003&oq=world+cup&aqs=chrome.0.35i39j46i10i131i433i512j0i10i131i433i512l3j69i60l3.11460j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=m;/g/11k5hd8qrz;2;/m/030q7;dt;fp;1", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "If you want to trade for the full duration of the game, check out JAAM's market (however his market doesn't count towards the $500 tournament leaderboard).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-france-eliminate-morocco-at-th-57c34cb06ac6", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FwvEHX8S269.png?alt=media&token=a3b31f05-39f2-40a1-832d-5de595dc2d31", "groupSlugs": ["fifa-2022-world-cup-1000-competitio", "2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "YES = France wins\nNO = Morocco wins\n\n\nResolves to whichever team wins and advances to the finals.\n\n\nSee details and google's win probability here\n\nTrading halts on this market at half-time to allow some live trading, but ensure the tournament profits aren't too heavily weighed by reaction time and constant use of the site.\n\nIf you want to trade for the full duration of the game, check out JAAM's market (however his market doesn't count towards the $500 tournament leaderboard).\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/will-france-eliminate-morocco-at-th-57c34cb06ac6)"}, {"id": "5lfru6ZohUqwEZienlz4", "creatorId": "fnYl3YDoUjXvGNrj72EZvKCbHR83", "creatorUsername": "Lorenzo", "creatorName": "Lorenzo", "createdTime": 1666295685611, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhzcpHjwZ67O8HADuUYEMWdxEt94d8LT4MtPpRpc6o=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695629572920, "question": "Will Hans Hans Nieman win his $100M Lawsuit against Magnus Carlsen & others, or get a settlement of >= $1M?", "slug": "will-hans-hans-nieman-win-his-100m", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Lorenzo/will-hans-hans-nieman-win-his-100m", "pool": {"NO": 171.88097820631265, "YES": 6967.968684688558}, "probability": 0.0042525199343127484, "p": 0.14758047518719417, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6901.228099841981, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695629572920, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695629558629, "lastBetTime": 1695629558083, "lastCommentTime": 1695628808384, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chess-cheating-hans-niemann-magnus-carlsen-lawsuit-11666291319", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chess-cheating-hans-niemann-magnus-carlsen-lawsuit-11666291319", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Questions resolves to YES if Hans Niemann gets >= $1M from his lawsuit, N/A if the settlement is undisclosed and it's unclear whether it's above or below $1M, NO if he gets less than $1M or 0.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(not inflation adjusted, might resolve as N/A or postpone the closing date if no news by Dec 2023)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sinquefield-cup-chess-scandal", "chess"], "textDescription": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/chess-cheating-hans-niemann-magnus-carlsen-lawsuit-11666291319\n\nQuestions resolves to YES if Hans Niemann gets >= $1M from his lawsuit, N/A if the settlement is undisclosed and it's unclear whether it's above or below $1M, NO if he gets less than $1M or 0.\n(not inflation adjusted, might resolve as N/A or postpone the closing date if no news by Dec 2023)\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "yzEBSeZEodJpniQwUpIo", "creatorId": "HPJzzWkIWjcX9kLhSM3ogUjx4c92", "creatorUsername": "aoife", "creatorName": "aoife", "createdTime": 1683024881940, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Faoife%2FeNDCzdH4bo.jpg?alt=media&token=169ec262-6a3f-487b-9d50-45918d260e02", "closeTime": 1700783940000, "question": "Will any F1 driver receive a race ban during the 2023 F1 Season?", "slug": "will-any-f1-driver-receive-a-race-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/aoife/will-any-f1-driver-receive-a-race-b", "pool": {"NO": 195.61879712561785, "YES": 826.3670315923856}, "probability": 0.0472224811802273, "p": 0.17312492564746268, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 970.7878174308762, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701216437086, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700738564162, "lastBetTime": 1700738564021, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Any driver receives a race ban (for any Sprint Race or Grand Prix) during any race of the 2023 F1 season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The race ban can be for the following season, but must be received during a 2023 race (e.g. a driver may receive a ban at the Abu Dhabi GP, to be served at the first race of the following season).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to NO if:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No driver receives a race ban during the 2023 F1 season.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES as soon as any driver revieves a race ban, if any does.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F_JMiW7qYcz.png?alt=media&token=065c848a-d7fb-44c3-ba20-7f1c4067f810", "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if:\n\nAny driver receives a race ban (for any Sprint Race or Grand Prix) during any race of the 2023 F1 season.\n\nThe race ban can be for the following season, but must be received during a 2023 race (e.g. a driver may receive a ban at the Abu Dhabi GP, to be served at the first race of the following season).\n\nResolves to NO if:\n\nNo driver receives a race ban during the 2023 F1 season.\n\nWill resolve to YES as soon as any driver revieves a race ban, if any does."}, {"id": "8lq4B5mg0RfrhztPAaqM", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1709579412019, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1712095256607, "question": "On April Fools, will Dune 2 audience score on Rotten Tomatoes be higher then Manifold's Approval? (Q1 Poll Index)", "slug": "on-april-fools-will-dune-2-audience", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/on-april-fools-will-dune-2-audience", "pool": {"NO": 3031.58853048163, "YES": 97.44807528411859}, "probability": 0.9896915321064771, "p": 0.7552673263107186, "totalLiquidity": 280, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2796.4114695183703, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712095256607, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712095256607, "lastBetTime": 1712095243226, "lastCommentTime": 1710800219140, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Using Manifold's POLL INDEX which is determined by a poll at the end of the quarter, NOT MARKET INDEX.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udd17Link 1: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\ud83d\udd17Link 2: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "pFFUDpIVKIuWjFU8yL7B", "label": "/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "movies", "television-film", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "manifold-6748e065087e", "hollywood", "internet", "manifold-business-future", "dune", "manifold-users", "rotten-tomatoes", "science-fiction", "public-opinion", "derivative-markets", "approval-ratings", "personal-opinion", "reviews"], "textDescription": "Using Manifold's POLL INDEX which is determined by a poll at the end of the quarter, NOT MARKET INDEX.\n\n\ud83d\udd17Link 1: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two\n\n\ud83d\udd17Link 2: @/strutheo/what-will-manifolds-approval-rating \n\n"}, {"id": "8VL9VMqGlosA3TUUsWXM", "creatorId": "oXhTaUb3s8hfWsBNmgv48copQZ72", "creatorUsername": "Milli", "creatorName": "Milli", "createdTime": 1676666702715, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMilli%2FzVxW3CGtZf.com-gif-maker%20(7)?alt=media&token=3c866c61-92ae-45ce-8d90-75e99f32f1e4", "closeTime": 1677279540000, "question": "Will Steam Reviews for Hogwarts Legacy be above 95%?", "slug": "will-steam-reviews-for-hogwarts-leg-bea57cb20eb1", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Milli/will-steam-reviews-for-hogwarts-leg-bea57cb20eb1", "pool": {"NO": 89.97787934057202, "YES": 1506.1228238616768}, "probability": 0.016522873427410288, "p": 0.21949381930371112, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3151.9837706303315, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1677360667483, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1677274981729, "lastBetTime": 1677274981625, "lastCommentTime": 1676687186690, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will check the review page ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "two weeks after release", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " on 24.02.2023 at 23:59 CET. If at this point \"ALL REVIEWS\" shows above 95%, this resolves Yes.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FmHbgLNJQSB.png?alt=media&token=8b843d9a-d983-4385-bfd2-20dfb1c5502c", "groupSlugs": ["gaming"], "textDescription": "I will check the review page two weeks after release on 24.02.2023 at 23:59 CET. If at this point \"ALL REVIEWS\" shows above 95%, this resolves Yes.\n\nhttps://store.steampowered.com/app/990080/Hogwarts_Legacy/"}, {"id": "cKhcZwSL83GtEQcM5XG7", "creatorId": "kFnp1Nu8X8TXHVzewacU7w1PYuo2", "creatorUsername": "NobodyZ", "creatorName": "NobodyZ", "createdTime": 1680993418164, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp63rzanR1tVapQEr0N0WxH3KjSuOeJN4WU3r3KkJA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1683410400000, "question": "Will \"Qorantos stock (Permanent)\" reach 550 positions until 7 May 2023", "slug": "will-qorantos-stock-permanent-reach", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NobodyZ/will-qorantos-stock-permanent-reach", "pool": {"NO": 127.81012249271959, "YES": 970.102894531009}, "probability": 0.050000000000000044, "p": 0.28545071603506406, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3524.578626706783, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683412661353, "resolutionProbability": 0.1, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218363458, "lastBetTime": 1683395629409, "lastCommentTime": 1683412729623, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will \"Qorantos stock (Permanent)\" reach 550 positions until 7 May 2023?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It's basically bet on popularity of the stock. If u think it will get popular enough to reach said number within the given timeframe then bet \"yes\", if u think it will not reach the position then bet \"no\". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "You can also trade this stock until it resolves to profit whenever it is overcorrected in either way.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolve Yes:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- if mentioned stock reaches 550 positions until 7 May 2023 ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolve No:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- if 7 May 2023 is ended and stock still is below 550 positions", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolve N/A:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "- if Qorantos stock (Permament) is resolved N/A before the time passes", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/dgga/qorantos-stock-permanent-6134a4d8a624", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F6eJxa8n54R.png?alt=media&token=9913d0d1-51e3-4555-a4c7-21849ed432aa", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "Will \"Qorantos stock (Permanent)\" reach 550 positions until 7 May 2023?\n\nIt's basically bet on popularity of the stock. If u think it will get popular enough to reach said number within the given timeframe then bet \"yes\", if u think it will not reach the position then bet \"no\". \n\nYou can also trade this stock until it resolves to profit whenever it is overcorrected in either way.\n\nResolve Yes:\n- if mentioned stock reaches 550 positions until 7 May 2023 \nResolve No:\n- if 7 May 2023 is ended and stock still is below 550 positions\nResolve N/A:\n- if Qorantos stock (Permament) is resolved N/A before the time passes\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/dgga/qorantos-stock-permanent-6134a4d8a624)"}, {"id": "vif1sTAUyodXfHRZngNZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1704116391868, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704190800000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2024-01-02 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-70ec8beada77", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-70ec8beada77", "pool": {"NO": 70.06127439548528, "YES": 69.66094988082843}, "probability": 0.153583184051288, "p": 0.15283974838801742, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704278216786, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704278217077, "lastBetTime": 1704189628868, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-01-02 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2024&month=01&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff044eabbbc3b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-01-02 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-01-02 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "aT5hU2IVZSjQo54Rclc3", "creatorId": "LJ7CB9fuYzZ5j8HieQxubQhRYYu2", "creatorUsername": "Duncn", "creatorName": "Duncn", "createdTime": 1659186515413, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDuncan%2Fd23fdd0ee35b58832236cbd532da462a.jpg?alt=media&token=248daf59-7b59-4ecf-b4c9-5fe6ff48656d", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Will Pope Francis still be Pope on Jan. 1st, 2023?", "slug": "will-pope-francis-still-be-pope-on", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-pope-francis-still-be-pope-on", "pool": {"NO": 1849.5464122367334, "YES": 78.4614906676106}, "probability": 0.9920305596412109, "p": 0.8407811695466223, "totalLiquidity": 180, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3037.2084189189072, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1672588539529, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672541819026, "lastBetTime": 1672541818916, "lastCommentTime": 1672239618237, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pope Francis recently said that he might retire; he's also very old. He has not given a timeline on his potential retirement/death, and 2023 would be a fast turn-around, pope-wise.  ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["world-default", "religion"], "textDescription": "Pope Francis recently said that he might retire; he's also very old. He has not given a timeline on his potential retirement/death, and 2023 would be a fast turn-around, pope-wise.  "}, {"id": "oCZ9fPLjKqtliSAN4wxm", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1702753962149, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1702854000000, "question": "Will XLM close higher on December 17 than it closed on December 16?", "slug": "will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-1-7bf2206dda21", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xlm-close-higher-on-december-1-7bf2206dda21", "pool": {"NO": 104.46828904330165, "YES": 211.24650585366868}, "probability": 0.3318072426162681, "p": 0.5010299159054523, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 273.4483409184283, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702863917026, "resolutionProbability": 0.33, "resolverId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702863912340, "lastBetTime": 1702853753547, "lastCommentTime": 1702863911589, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XLM-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.1249", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2F12e7050e02d2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $0.1249\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "pV3YyF1NXNNOmZAkk9rf", "creatorId": "tuLs71AxUDftq1vudwJ1qy3UBnl1", "creatorUsername": "Arch1e", "creatorName": "Archie", "createdTime": 1696801105515, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FArch1e%2F6tXpbVbmVK.PNG?alt=media&token=ae673ff9-0277-463f-9904-e72df9cde7a1", "closeTime": 1698007442366, "question": "[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win the US Grand Prix with a 12+ second lead?", "slug": "2023-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-d71a5f7378c0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Arch1e/2023-formula-1-season-will-max-vers-d71a5f7378c0", "pool": {"NO": 40.32443920790023, "YES": 950.4130986243496}, "probability": 0.02051899892755713, "p": 0.3305424658645522, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1084.9604998716343, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698007442366, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698007009471, "lastBetTime": 1698007009101, "lastCommentTime": 1697876252832, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "[United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA]", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Verstappen wins the race at COTA, with a gap of 12 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Verstappen has a penalty yet to be served in the race, it will be accounted for in the gap for the market. For example, if he had a 5-second penalty (not yet served) and crossed the line 13 seconds ahead, the market would resolve NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a penalty is considered and applied after the race finish, but Verstappen still has a 12+ second gap, the market will still resolve YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(This is for the Sunday race, not the sprint)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "formula-1", "motorsports"], "textDescription": "[United States Grand Prix / Austin / COTA]\n\nResolves YES if Verstappen wins the race at COTA, with a gap of 12 seconds or more crossing the finish line to the car in second place.\n\nIf Verstappen has a penalty yet to be served in the race, it will be accounted for in the gap for the market. For example, if he had a 5-second penalty (not yet served) and crossed the line 13 seconds ahead, the market would resolve NO.\n\nIf a penalty is considered and applied after the race finish, but Verstappen still has a 12+ second gap, the market will still resolve YES.\n\n(This is for the Sunday race, not the sprint)"}, {"id": "VQ7CsPDEFzLoLd174m1Z", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1690152919113, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1690239600000, "question": "Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher July 24th Than July 23rd?", "slug": "will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-j-58b85f6dd3d4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-j-58b85f6dd3d4", "pool": {"NO": 145.62454639144937, "YES": 3028.392875984486}, "probability": 0.009701001763892889, "p": 0.16924014086470432, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2880.312589057643, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1690244524354, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690244521590, "lastBetTime": 1690239594469, "lastCommentTime": 1690244518689, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "JULY 23rd Close Value: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "$1,888.65", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FdMbkT-FF49.png?alt=media&token=e4527338-2b77-4324-b770-566f5fdef215", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FCSeuS6sSuA.png?alt=media&token=178084ac-59b8-480f-b143-4dc78f61be94", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-speculation", "economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\nJULY 23rd Close Value: $1,888.65\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "Lm2I56QWkN4OSiPoawWc", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1696279526660, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1697755435253, "question": "Will the VIX (INDEXCBOE: VIX) close at or higher than 20.00 during October 2023? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-vix-indexcboe-vix-close-at", "pool": {"NO": 15165.661756548981, "YES": 60.29924283356222}, "probability": 0.9969540402919326, "p": 0.5654766044061007, "totalLiquidity": 850, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 24801.23929300163, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1697755445486, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 46, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697755672013, "lastBetTime": 1697755179324, "lastCommentTime": 1697755669134, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "sccsq4", "stock-marketweekly"], "textDescription": "Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nDASHBOARD\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS \n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n"}, {"id": "fEELOWxjdHYoe4zVamg6", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1679606775619, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680119729867, "question": "Will Destiny's clip \"Pearls Logic is Unmatched \ud83d\ude2c\" reach 20k views by 3/30 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-clip-pearls-logic-is", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-clip-pearls-logic-is", "pool": {"NO": 12007.636542216393, "YES": 66.07948469208168}, "probability": 0.9985713576696493, "p": 0.7936651426258915, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11816.569446904214, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680119729867, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218590570, "lastBetTime": 1680119726661, "lastCommentTime": 1680104384366, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtube.com/shorts/2pl7B7FX6Po?feature=share", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtube.com/shorts/2pl7B7FX6Po?feature=share", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FFJ0Nq0PLsA.png?alt=media&token=795c3cac-121e-4e68-b5db-abb34f765cde", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtube.com/shorts/2pl7B7FX6Po?feature=share\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nI reserve the right to resolve the market as N/A, returning money to everyone, if there are only 2 or less traders."}, {"id": "OQrw5y0ewwixH7hcnwk3", "creatorId": "jG0qmq661GThqp1X7L8hQQffHRq2", "creatorUsername": "CWellington1076", "creatorName": "Carter", "createdTime": 1698264344460, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCarterWells%2F5-kas41Dbl.jpeg?alt=media&token=df3983b1-23a6-4b51-80aa-13d75d26d956", "closeTime": 1698335034854, "question": "Will Luka Doncic drop a triple double for the Mavs in the first game of the season?", "slug": "will-luka-doncic-drop-a-triple-doub", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CWellington1076/will-luka-doncic-drop-a-triple-doub", "pool": {"NO": 818.3317543927907, "YES": 54.79482763913624}, "probability": 0.9751951752844631, "p": 0.7247061984898991, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1968.8551782704812, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698335034854, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698326644508, "lastBetTime": 1698326644118, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["basketball", "nba"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "qAko70lYx3qd0SLQ50KJ", "creatorId": "V24VPqgg69dXvS18EEenv8s2dd62", "creatorUsername": "MicheleTravierso", "creatorName": "Michele Travierso", "createdTime": 1700335631046, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJ2rUqUq4aGKUHAWJcUoEl7kSSnG1Q7wkWDjy_GlPk5eLs=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717192740000, "question": "Will Giorgia Meloni still be the italian prime minister on June 1st 2024?", "slug": "will-giorgia-meloni-still-be-the-it", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MicheleTravierso/will-giorgia-meloni-still-be-the-it", "pool": {"NO": 3454.732115374082, "YES": 873.6297368199298}, "probability": 0.9831356650067381, "p": 0.9364757872829705, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3195.3685324611406, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1717302243289, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "4juQfJkFnwX9nws3dFOpz4gc1mi2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717334108500, "lastBetTime": 1717189563058, "lastCommentTime": 1717334107348, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/09/giorgia-melonis-mother-of-all-reforms-is-a-power-grab", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/09/giorgia-melonis-mother-of-all-reforms-is-a-power-grab", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "italian-politics", "italy", "italian-affairs", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/11/09/giorgia-melonis-mother-of-all-reforms-is-a-power-grab"}, {"id": "LFusgn3snlqxKPU1st6o", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1703883774449, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1704018000000, "question": "Will flight AF 334 from Paris to Boston departing on 2023-12-31 arrive with 30+ minute delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-8504caac8e94", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-334-from-paris-to-bo-8504caac8e94", "pool": {"NO": 64.13514981453277, "YES": 120.00000000000003}, "probability": 0.07359652137228899, "p": 0.12940690775097421, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 50, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704055342165, "resolutionProbability": 0.07, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704055342409, "lastBetTime": 1704015957433, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2023-12-31 10:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 12:20 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 08:00", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/334?year=2023&month=12&date=31", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af334", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff381bd82121b.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on delay of flight Air France AF 334 from Paris (CDG) to Boston (BOS), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2023-12-31 10:20 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2023-12-31 - 12:20 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:20 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a007:20 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a013:20 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 08:00\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay over 30 minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: New automated market script, don't hesitate to tag me in case of misbehavior. Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "TOjFW2S7mtddgvPIfQ24", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1686581102912, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1686670200000, "question": "Will the UK's FTSE 100 close higher on 13th June than it closed on 12th June?", "slug": "will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6107660b7bab", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-ftse-100-close-higher-6107660b7bab", "pool": {"NO": 8103.220560032188, "YES": 30.936019300699805}, "probability": 0.9984452590291658, "p": 0.7102903655621355, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9036.317206609356, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1686670598632, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1686670044892, "lastBetTime": 1686670044728, "lastCommentTime": 1686658254050, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 13th June than it did on Monday 12th June?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "And here are some longer term FTSE markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "RMphZSBuVuuOMTa3vcCC,SCqqFj9Jyi9yVKg8FDr2,NmnePAVbRiqx7LgihAXt"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2_bcgqhnZQ.png?alt=media&token=bb90f107-bb76-4594-ad31-7f654461609f", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "ftse-100"], "textDescription": "Will the FTSE 100 close higher on Tuesday 13th June than it did on Monday 12th June?\n\nThe market closes at 16:30 UK time when trading stops on the FTSE.\n\nAnd here are some longer term FTSE markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "Ep9FNV0Ab1lDGIOxOC6T", "creatorId": "cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3", "creatorUsername": "pa", "creatorName": "PedroA", "createdTime": 1710455205942, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtee8W-AS6HtIUteOIjSMBI-pGI8Iq6PnPJYlJs17w=s96-c", "closeTime": 1715655975773, "question": "Will OpenAI release a new GPT model before July 2024?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-new-gpt-model-3c53fba38061", "url": "https://manifold.markets/pa/will-openai-release-a-new-gpt-model-3c53fba38061", "pool": {"NO": 2076.331552517079, "YES": 465.81217650213983}, "probability": 0.8955790869747652, "p": 0.6580159609184425, "totalLiquidity": 825, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5219.724537313635, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1715655975773, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "cBLCLDDDjIPnfuIdKIE4sXLKgJH3", "uniqueBettorCount": 32, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715655975773, "lastBetTime": 1715649136013, "lastCommentTime": 1715649152227, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai", "openai", "gpt4-speculation"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "NInS5bYkQ3rtbfbIVwBI", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1716697200859, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1716856200000, "question": "(Game 3) Will Edmonton Oilers beat Dallas Stars on May 27 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "game-3-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/game-3-will-edmonton-oilers-beat-da", "pool": {"NO": 1194.0301413251748, "YES": 837.4997961861906}, "probability": 0.5877492225331751, "p": 0.5, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 305, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1716871720913, "resolutionProbability": 0.59, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1716856200000, "lastBetTime": 1716842180281, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The series is tied ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Oilers+vs+Stars#sie=m;/g/11vxml4dfj;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 7:30pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "7:30pm CST on May 27", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/8a3e00bb333a.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-betting", "sports-default", "culture-default", "hockey", "nhl"], "textDescription": "The series is tied 1-1\n\nEdmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars on May 27\n\nGame starts 7:30pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 7:30pm CST on May 27\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie.\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games)"}, {"id": "ujhQ0PmJzqJ7ode7OTpc", "creatorId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "creatorUsername": "xyz", "creatorName": "Yona", "createdTime": 1697932594466, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FYoav%2FR0iyH_7-6l.jpeg?alt=media&token=21944a76-17f4-49cd-99c0-05d4951471d1", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Israeli forces enter Lebanon in 2023?", "slug": "will-israeli-forces-enter-lebanon-i", "url": "https://manifold.markets/xyz/will-israeli-forces-enter-lebanon-i", "pool": {"NO": 233.50258346504856, "YES": 2478.295716514508}, "probability": 0.04267542884502262, "p": 0.3211731023693432, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2390.85308375111, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704174199431, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "kF7TZaHXRqeisqn1dvzc2Nd8B3p1", "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704174199616, "lastBetTime": 1704077701744, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves with public confirmation from Israel that they have sent forces into Lebanon to carry out military operations.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the IDF declares that they have done a \"ground offensive,\" \"raid,\" \"special operation,\" or other phrase which indicate that they have sent forces into the country for a military purpose, resolves YES. The announcement may come from an IDF Twitter account, in a press release, or in a quote to a news outlet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the IDF does not publicize this explicitly, I will look at international English news outlets. If 4 of the following websites publish an online article saying that the IDF has entered Lebanon, resolves YES:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "bbc.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://bbc.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "washingtonpost.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://washingtonpost.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "apnews.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://apnews.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "reuters.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://reuters.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "nytimes.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://nytimes.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "npr.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://npr.com", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "wars", "israeli-politics", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023", "lebanon", "world-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves with public confirmation from Israel that they have sent forces into Lebanon to carry out military operations.\n\nResolution criteria:\n\nIf the IDF declares that they have done a \"ground offensive,\" \"raid,\" \"special operation,\" or other phrase which indicate that they have sent forces into the country for a military purpose, resolves YES. The announcement may come from an IDF Twitter account, in a press release, or in a quote to a news outlet.\n\nIf the IDF does not publicize this explicitly, I will look at international English news outlets. If 4 of the following websites publish an online article saying that the IDF has entered Lebanon, resolves YES:\n\nbbc.com\n\nwashingtonpost.com\n\napnews.com\n\nreuters.com\n\nnytimes.com\n\nnpr.com"}, {"id": "9VcrJ6bcYVKmjx7PoXmy", "creatorId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "creatorUsername": "chrisjbillington", "creatorName": "Chris Billington", "createdTime": 1674681880429, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FChrisBillington%2FjLc4I6rx5f.jpg?alt=media&token=cbff96f7-53b4-45ec-93fe-df29764eebe6", "closeTime": 1706683922401, "question": "Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater in Q4 2023?", "slug": "will-australian-inflation-be-47-or", "url": "https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-47-or", "pool": {"NO": 21.69638992323962, "YES": 14732.145980952246}, "probability": 0.0006116741777975255, "p": 0.29358044479455225, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 14745.530503182885, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706683922401, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706683923153, "lastBetTime": 1706683849968, "lastCommentTime": 1706683911486, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves on whether the Q4 2023 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows CPI growth of 4.7% or greater, rounded to one decimal place, in the 12 months to December 2023.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This data will likely be released in late Jan 2024. Market will resolve upon the initial release without regard for revisions that future releases may contain.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question pertains to the quarterly CPI releases, not to the \"monthly CPI indicator\" series recently started by the ABS. If there is no such distinction anymore come end of 2023, and CPI releases move to monthly instead of quarterly, then this market will resolve using the release for the month of December.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The threshold of 4.7% comes from the RBA's ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "November 2022 forecasts.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2022/nov/forecasts.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 2, 7:53pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater for 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater in Q4 2023?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Other Australian inflation markets:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-72-or", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-67-or", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-57-or", "frameBorder": 0, "allowFullScreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "australia", "inflation"], "textDescription": "Resolves on whether the Q4 2023 CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows CPI growth of 4.7% or greater, rounded to one decimal place, in the 12 months to December 2023.\n\nThis data will likely be released in late Jan 2024. Market will resolve upon the initial release without regard for revisions that future releases may contain.\n\nThis question pertains to the quarterly CPI releases, not to the \"monthly CPI indicator\" series recently started by the ABS. If there is no such distinction anymore come end of 2023, and CPI releases move to monthly instead of quarterly, then this market will resolve using the release for the month of December.\n\nThe threshold of 4.7% comes from the RBA's November 2022 forecasts.\n\nMar 2, 7:53pm: Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater for 2023? \u2192 Will Australian inflation be 4.7% or greater in Q4 2023?\n\nOther Australian inflation markets:\n\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-72-or)(https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-67-or)(https://manifold.markets/embed/chrisjbillington/will-australian-inflation-be-57-or)"}, {"id": "PjzdTd8Fxo0ABGssZlfC", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1698122956468, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1698262800000, "question": "Will PK flight 631 from Islamabad to Sukkur departing on 2023-10-25 arrive with 30+ min delay (YES)?", "slug": "will-pk-flight-631-from-islamabad-t", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-pk-flight-631-from-islamabad-t", "pool": {"NO": 123.2340271483455, "YES": 148.32910208108714}, "probability": 0.9599999999999994, "p": 0.9665409735015655, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 836.8152674281388, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698273772350, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698261603490, "lastBetTime": 1698261603188, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES means 30+ min arrival delay or flight cancellation/diversion, while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/ybp5kteu", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/ybp5kteu", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "YES means 30+ min arrival delay or flight cancellation/diversion, while NO means on-time arrival. Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/ybp5kteu"}, {"id": "dNsaAYrPHUkYXx16bElP", "creatorId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "creatorUsername": "BTE", "creatorName": "Brian T. Edwards", "createdTime": 1665231223854, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2FaSsPoXaRJr.png?alt=media&token=bb7d2e7c-7345-43a6-aae9-3fcd8f17498c", "closeTime": 1680306983764, "question": "Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the first plenary session of the 20th People\u2019s Congress?", "slug": "will-he-lifeng-succeed-vice-premier", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-he-lifeng-succeed-vice-premier", "pool": {"NO": 3987.904881757758, "YES": 139.39708083484038}, "probability": 0.9761182281113191, "p": 0.5882591671871766, "totalLiquidity": 590, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6972.067704398091, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680306983764, "resolutionProbability": 0.96, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680306980910, "lastBetTime": 1680306979758, "lastCommentTime": 1680306963193, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping appoints his close confidant He Lifeng to succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th People's Congress. Resolves NO if not. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7J7ZBVyH5y.jpg?alt=media&token=ecae9173-4912-4a50-9e0a-311d65630c9c", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 12, 7:46am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th People's Congress?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th Party Congress?", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oct 31, 11:19am: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th Party Congress?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the first plenary session of the 20th People\u2019s Congress?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["chinese-politics"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Xi Jinping appoints his close confidant He Lifeng to succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th People's Congress. Resolves NO if not. \n\n[image]Oct 12, 7:46am: Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th People's Congress? \u2192 Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th Party Congress?\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-03-31 11:59 pm\n\nOct 31, 11:19am: Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the 20th Party Congress? \u2192 Will He Lifeng succeed Vice Premier for Economic Policy Liu He at the first plenary session of the 20th People\u2019s Congress?"}, {"id": "dRtakX5L2qN3FZoYUr62", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1667503449953, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1667588400000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.10 on November 4, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1642819b5fe2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1642819b5fe2", "pool": {"NO": 156.474984777748, "YES": 713.356017696219}, "probability": 0.07, "p": 0.25547823228029354, "totalLiquidity": 320, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1954.6662458291369, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1667592184762, "resolutionProbability": 0.07000000000000002, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667586369139, "lastBetTime": 1667586367384, "lastCommentTime": 1667503465123, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2dQXfcxkgj.png?alt=media&token=fa0b5b01-09db-4c0c-ad02-c4c0b5b80c9a", "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nBetting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. \n\nExcellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "g00qMeztMGMzCgUfg7QZ", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1707687866933, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1707807600000, "question": "Will flight AF 1580 from Paris to London departing on 2024-02-13 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-2007ea9bad12", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1580-from-paris-to-l-2007ea9bad12", "pool": {"NO": 66.57570537921737, "YES": 100.00000000000001}, "probability": 0.08077986107407041, "p": 0.11660631835631136, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 30, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707851184584, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707851186671, "lastBetTime": 1707687974217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-13 07:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-13 - 09:00 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:30", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=13", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1580?year=2024&month=02&date=13", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1580", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Ff8efb38b315f.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1580 from Paris (CDG) to London (LHR), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-13 07:00 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-13 - 09:00 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a001:00 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a004:00 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a010:00 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:30\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "RcRNH2IO1Zgv1uSXO7TZ", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1710694731823, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1715789108833, "question": "Will \"The Idea of You\" (inspired by Harry Styles fan fic) have a Metacritic score >70?", "slug": "will-the-idea-of-you-inspired-by-ha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-idea-of-you-inspired-by-ha", "pool": {"NO": 22.169515720719232, "YES": 2064.733357703408}, "probability": 0.010000000000000002, "p": 0.4847343317248378, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2331.0668468196905, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715789108833, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715789108833, "lastBetTime": 1715789096876, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) Metacritic page: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "May 16th ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(two weeks after it releases on Prime Video).", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\"The Idea of You\" just premiered at SXSW, and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "some reviews have already been released", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Example: the Metascore for", "type": "text"}, {"text": " \"Red White & Royal Blue\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metacritic.com/movie/red-white-royal-blue/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (the previous hit with the same romantic lead) is currently 62.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) releases May 2nd on Amazon Prime. It stars Anne Hathaway as a divorced mother who takes her teen daughter to Coachella and ENTERS a surprise romance with a young pop superstar (played by Nicholas Galitzine). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Infamously, the story was originally derived from ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Harry Styles fanfic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://graziamagazine.com/us/articles/anne-hathaway-film-harry-styles-fan-fiction-the-idea-of-you/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The trailer ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "supposedly set the record for the most-watched trailer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/03/anne-hathaway-the-idea-of-you-trailer-record-sxsw-1235860352/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for any streaming original film.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["movies", "entertainment", "television-film", "culture-default", "media-rating-futures", "boxoffice", "hollywood"], "textDescription": "\"The Idea of You\" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-idea-of-you/\n\nI will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 16th (two weeks after it releases on Prime Video).\n\nDetails\n\nNOTE: \"The Idea of You\" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been released\u2014I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore might shift a good deal.\n\nI will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).\n\nExample: the Metascore for \"Red White & Royal Blue\" (the previous hit with the same romantic lead) is currently 62.\n\nContext\n\n\"The Idea of You\" (2024) releases May 2nd on Amazon Prime. It stars Anne Hathaway as a divorced mother who takes her teen daughter to Coachella and ENTERS a surprise romance with a young pop superstar (played by Nicholas Galitzine). \n\nInfamously, the story was originally derived from Harry Styles fanfic.\n\nThe trailer supposedly set the record for the most-watched trailer for any streaming original film."}, {"id": "azQYCsexpaBNkpZPHw7x", "creatorId": "WCo3j9E5xsRMOsCdvYR2fsHXuch1", "creatorUsername": "VaclavRozhon", "creatorName": "V\u00e1clav Rozho\u0148", "createdTime": 1688819390631, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxb21iP39ridmV3g6ODR5n-lrdP76kbbf0MaesOy=s96-c", "closeTime": 1691467140000, "question": "Change my mind: I am not impressed by Snake Eyes or Saint Petersburg", "slug": "change-my-mind-i-am-not-impressed-b", "url": "https://manifold.markets/VaclavRozhon/change-my-mind-i-am-not-impressed-b", "pool": {"NO": 128.66676952092837, "YES": 396.1307384268211}, "probability": 0.23999999999999996, "p": 0.4929601937826423, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 278.62525087182195, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691534957913, "resolutionProbability": 0.24, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691534953375, "lastBetTime": 1691449682110, "lastCommentTime": 1691534949809, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I am not impressed by this paradox: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "cf6bb94a-76b5-4579-86b4-5fa845c948d0", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the", "image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Is+the+probability+of+dying+in+the+Snake+Eyes+Paradox+1%2F36%3F&numTraders=99&volume=82933&probability=93%25&creatorName=Daniel+Reeves&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fuser-images%252Fdreev%252Flogo-bee_512%25402.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D582af185-b10c-4acd-9c68-7889ad5e22e3&points=eAzEUwAAAD_aDcRTAACAPtwNxFMM9u4-Kg_EU90Bnj7xD8RTfm8xPj0QxFN04V4_SxDEU58YTj-VEMRTYRFqP88QxFNcj0I_IRHEU4UZbD_kEcRTAf1nP88SxFOzEGk_bxPEU_7Lcz-ZFMRTX6t6P-wexFMkpns_LUTEU8KDdT_DTsRTj1N8P_xQxFPZenk_PVXEUxNydT-VVcRT7FF4P4ZWxFNgX3Q_-VfEU32Rdz-WWcRTS_l5P15axFPE-Ho_bF3EU6lRfj_nb8RTAsh7P4hwxFPEvXQ_HHLEUynmeD-UdsRTevh6PwV4xFMeH30_knrEUyzrfD_9fsRTw_VoP25_xFNyF28_fYDEU8P1aD-5gMRTBB5vP_mAxFORLWc_FYHEU04CXj8WgcRTZmZmPy6BxFN7FG4_SoHEU1UYVz9pgcRTw_VoP7uBxFP37F8_JILEU2DrVz9fgsRT4XpUP8SCxFOJOVs_-4LEU38Qaj8fg8RTnQdvP7WDxFPD9Wg_tYPEUzMzcz-_g8RTTYhbP8aDxFO7FV8_94PEU65HYT8WhMRT0t1cP0WExFP1R2w_b4TEU9XoYT-dhMRTpzxgP9CExFP9IWo_C4bEU1lpZj8shsRTHphZP0SGxFPjRls_UobEUylcTz9fhsRTcXtbP4GGxFPhelQ_qIbEUwGXUD_jhsRTd1NRPwmHxFMtEF8_bofEUyraYT8giMRTZmZmP5WIxFNM01A_2YjEU2ZmZj_uiMRTZmZmP7GJxFNmZmY_LIrEUylcTz-zisRTuB5hP7iKxFNmZmY_NovEU9Swbz_Li8RTHc1oP-iMxFNP_m0_p43EU_zXaz-ujsRTeGZoP76OxFMK12M_0Y7EU0Edaj9RkMRTmLdpP_yQxFN7FG4_HJPEU65HYT9ak8RTHehoPz-UxFP3Y1w_apTEU4_UYj8nlcRTvqZpP5OVxFN2SGw_TZbEU2qFaj_DlsRTXrxTP9iWxFNmZmY_TZfEU2S_Zz_Pl8RT08NmP7WYxFOYXnA_7JjEU12Naz-GmcRT2RFtPw", "title": "Is the probability of dying in the Snake Eyes Paradox 1/36?", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "93% chance. You\u2019re offered a gamble where a pair of six-sided dice are rolled and unless they come up snake eyes you get a bajillion dollars. If they do come up snake eyes, you\u2019re devoured by snakes. So far it sounds like you have a 1/36 chance of dying, right? Now the twist. First, I gather up an\u2026", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you start with a finite number of people and explain carefully what you do if you take all of them, there does not seem to be any paradox. If you set up the parameters in such a way that the expected number of people you take is finite, there does not seem to be any paradox. In Saint Petersburg paradox, if you say you cannot win more than C dollars for some C, there does not seem to be any paradox. Or am I missing something? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I think that approximating finite problems with infinite models may be very useful, e.g. I find the central limit theorem and approximating the binomial distribution by Gaussian very impressive. But looking at the Snake Eyes Paradox or Saint Petersburg Paradox, I see a question that makes sense in the finite world being generalized to the infinite world in a very fishy manner (what does it mean you started with a literally infinite number of people? Is it supposed to be an approximation of a very large number of people? But then where is the paradox? ). Why should I care about these paradoxes? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I see an abstract reason: if I am impressed by at least some infinite math like Gaussian distribution, I should hope that mathematicians will make sense of the questions like \"in which situations can you take limits of finite models?\" or \"When can you sum infinite series?\" etc. Any other reason? ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question resolves YES if I will be substantially more impressed by the Snake eyes paradox or St. Petersburg paradox than I am now. I will be very happy to change my mind as I am a big fan of probability, I just don't see a reason why should I be impressed other than the abstract argument above. I will not bet on this question. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["mathematics", "snakeeyes-paradox"], "textDescription": "I am not impressed by this paradox: https://manifold.markets/dreev/is-the-probability-of-dying-in-the\n\n[link preview]If you start with a finite number of people and explain carefully what you do if you take all of them, there does not seem to be any paradox. If you set up the parameters in such a way that the expected number of people you take is finite, there does not seem to be any paradox. In Saint Petersburg paradox, if you say you cannot win more than C dollars for some C, there does not seem to be any paradox. Or am I missing something? \n\nI think that approximating finite problems with infinite models may be very useful, e.g. I find the central limit theorem and approximating the binomial distribution by Gaussian very impressive. But looking at the Snake Eyes Paradox or Saint Petersburg Paradox, I see a question that makes sense in the finite world being generalized to the infinite world in a very fishy manner (what does it mean you started with a literally infinite number of people? Is it supposed to be an approximation of a very large number of people? But then where is the paradox? ). Why should I care about these paradoxes? \n\nI see an abstract reason: if I am impressed by at least some infinite math like Gaussian distribution, I should hope that mathematicians will make sense of the questions like \"in which situations can you take limits of finite models?\" or \"When can you sum infinite series?\" etc. Any other reason? \n\nThis question resolves YES if I will be substantially more impressed by the Snake eyes paradox or St. Petersburg paradox than I am now. I will be very happy to change my mind as I am a big fan of probability, I just don't see a reason why should I be impressed other than the abstract argument above. I will not bet on this question. \n\n"}, {"id": "OhcPiwQC8Q6CHIw90H5z", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1683568218621, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1683665940000, "question": "Will Russia take control of Bakhmut by the end of VA Day (May 9th 11:59pm Moscow time).", "slug": "will-russia-take-control-of-bakhmut", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-russia-take-control-of-bakhmut", "pool": {"NO": 102.60776762135878, "YES": 2060.9388017707156}, "probability": 0.005215632425993581, "p": 0.0952751022875528, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2515.23049348097, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1683670946387, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1683660626382, "lastBetTime": 1683660626225, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve as YES if the Russians hold control of Bakhmut before the end of VA Day. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To resolve we must have a reputable source confirming the victory of total control (no half victories, Russia must control the area).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKwCw7PZimi.webp?alt=media&token=4e48cb4e-2853-4b7c-a048-ccaad3efc2e5", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-steps-up-fight-bakhmut-hopes-capture-it-soon-says-ukraine-general-2023-05-07/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-steps-up-fight-bakhmut-hopes-capture-it-soon-says-ukraine-general-2023-05-07/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FZz-6YJ3wai.webp?alt=media&token=47233066-51d3-4d48-9a65-151d7c14f573", "groupSlugs": ["politics-default", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve as YES if the Russians hold control of Bakhmut before the end of VA Day. \n\nTo resolve we must have a reputable source confirming the victory of total control (no half victories, Russia must control the area).\n\n[image]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-steps-up-fight-bakhmut-hopes-capture-it-soon-says-ukraine-general-2023-05-07/\n\n"}, {"id": "ddvqopYFAtLYBtP3LfcD", "creatorId": "XKnrud6GQUaifOB0hOuUfBCFAly1", "creatorUsername": "Fion", "creatorName": "Fion", "createdTime": 1679948322988, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FFion%2Ff0dUbpMbfK.webp?alt=media&token=a5756953-9fb6-4763-9c2e-6bc532e44aed", "closeTime": 1681501299290, "question": "Will William Bosi be the second person to climb Burden of Dreams?", "slug": "will-william-bosi-be-the-second-per", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Fion/will-william-bosi-be-the-second-per", "pool": {"NO": 897.1338006472946, "YES": 28.058336595583363}, "probability": 0.9810317063795463, "p": 0.6179643234047038, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 949.9359731556406, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1681501299290, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1681506972379, "lastBetTime": 1681487113748, "lastCommentTime": 1681506968841, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Burden of Dreams is a 9A (V17) boulder problem in Finland, first climbed in 2016 by Nalle Hukkataival and not yet repeated. Several people are working on getting the second ascent, including William Bosi.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F30e3iXZlyA.png?alt=media&token=986c0c6a-bfd8-4051-aa27-be72ab459e92", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Burden of Dreams is a 9A (V17) boulder problem in Finland, first climbed in 2016 by Nalle Hukkataival and not yet repeated. Several people are working on getting the second ascent, including William Bosi."}, {"id": "zS7FaMsLk2jnhApfkhJa", "creatorId": "UYweIbdiPNcBgBlTBpKUbV3a6lp1", "creatorUsername": "Wobbles", "creatorName": "Wobbles", "createdTime": 1675959520414, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDesTiny%2FVcG84GgOe9.gif?alt=media&token=6b3bc04c-dcce-4100-9e8e-ad0f7255d2ca", "closeTime": 1706774391847, "question": "Will the Denver Broncos win the 2024 Super Bowl?", "slug": "will-the-denver-broncos-win-the-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Wobbles/will-the-denver-broncos-win-the-202", "pool": {"NO": 115.72029844840472, "YES": 12170.172627670407}, "probability": 0.0018463510476798557, "p": 0.16285614978944185, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 16872.634043793474, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706774391847, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706774393305, "lastBetTime": 1706761499317, "lastCommentTime": 1706761522975, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO in the extremely rare chance the Broncos don't win the super bowl next year. They're gonna win so you should probably buy yes \ud83d\udc4d ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F5X6cE2S6ys.png?alt=media&token=3752945c-6edb-4e20-8434-a4e47499af7e", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves NO in the extremely rare chance the Broncos don't win the super bowl next year. They're gonna win so you should probably buy yes \ud83d\udc4d "}, {"id": "d8pUNwgVigCD3SsE5H8r", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1702868051959, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702935000000, "question": "Will Silver close higher Dec 18 than Dec 15? (XAG/USD Daily)", "slug": "will-silver-close-higher-dec-18-tha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-silver-close-higher-dec-18-tha", "pool": {"NO": 108.65118697959855, "YES": 419.8246781206503}, "probability": 0.09047462158197113, "p": 0.2776478948269016, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 268.1580114539836, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702938724708, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702938721581, "lastBetTime": 1702934987912, "lastCommentTime": 1702938720911, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Silver Spot daily ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "candle", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/currencies/xag-usd-candlestick", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " closes at 5pm EST (10pm UTC).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes 30 mins earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FUIT58KbXwA.png?alt=media&token=5f1f7e83-ab26-4ce9-9e1a-6b6c66748768", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves from CNBC's ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Prev Close/Chart", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/XAG=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " or Investing's ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Historical Data", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.investing.com/currencies/xag-usd-historical-data", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Other Markets", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Gold", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XAU&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Silver ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XAG&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Platinum", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=XPT&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Currencies", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=Currency&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Weekly", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenWatts?q=weekly&s=newest&f=all&ct=ALL&tab=questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SirCryptomind", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Christian", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Simon Grayson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Nickten", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/nickten", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F06212b77b807.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["silver", "xag", "finance", "commodities", "spot-price", "stocks", "sccsq4", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Silver Spot daily candle closes at 5pm EST (10pm UTC).\n\nThis market closes 30 mins earlier.\n\n[image]Resolves from CNBC's Prev Close/Chart or Investing's Historical Data\n\nOther Markets\n\nGold\n\nSilver \n\nPlatinum\n\nCurrencies\n\nWeekly\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten"}, {"id": "LlnDmTAiuSVaAj6kqh13", "creatorId": "Wb5eZPHyiraJUzb4AxKrfudgLyq1", "creatorUsername": "DawnDrescher", "creatorName": "Dawn Drescher", "createdTime": 1695118494846, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/ACNPEu-45kmSUevyMYN5C6oSfe9pEk7MVGFpp1zzeXO08_8=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704070070314, "question": "Will AI Safety Impact Markets (a crowdsourced charity evaluator) have \u2265 15 ranked project scouts by the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro-880b377c1868", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro-880b377c1868", "pool": {"NO": 147.13729234202287, "YES": 62.660567240059194}, "probability": 0.9340080114152209, "p": 0.8577001231460787, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5682.532043067986, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704070070314, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "Wb5eZPHyiraJUzb4AxKrfudgLyq1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704070070931, "lastBetTime": 1701819988136, "lastCommentTime": 1701790844506, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Our platform depends on some number of donors who either contribute insider knowledge or in-depth research to the marketplace by registering their donations. We call them project scouts. They can optionally join our public ranking at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://app.impactmarkets.io/ranking", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://app.impactmarkets.io/ranking", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", which makes them easier to track. These project scouts seek to influence the recommendations that our platform generates for other donors like an aggregate of regrantor opinions.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "To join the ranking, they have to register donations to projects that subsequently receive a positive evaluation score. So the number of ranked project scouts can increase because new project scouts join and register their old donations, or because additional projects receive an evaluation. We're gearing up for such an evaluation round right now and hope to complete it next month. Their number can also drop if project scouts opt out of the public ranking.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Edit: The evaluation round is now complete. You can read about it on Substack. I'm planning to resolve this question to YES on Jan 1, 2024, if the number of ranked regrantors is still greater or equal at that point. I didn't want it to be interpreted as YES if the number only briefly peaks above 15 and then drops below again because that could've easily have happened in a way that is hard to reconstruct (I'd have to dig into the database) or by accident (e.g., I introduce a bug and fix it soon after). These worries are now moot, but I'd rather stick to my original plan.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background: We are currently in phase 1 of our rollout. Later we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. (See also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro.) Our long-term vision is to establish \u201cgeneralized carbon credits\u201d in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "H/t to Nu\u00f1o for nudging me to post this.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "28518853-f610-4fbd-b0b2-26787c4c10a8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro", "image": "https://manifold.markets/api/og/market?question=Will+AI+Safety+Impact+Markets+%28a+crowdsourced+charity+evaluator%29+reach+%3E+100+monthly+active+users+in+December+2023%3F&numTraders=1&volume=12&probability=40%25&creatorName=Dawn+Drescher&creatorAvatarUrl=https%3A%2F%2Flh3.googleusercontent.com%2Fa-%2FACNPEu-45kmSUevyMYN5C6oSfe9pEk7MVGFpp1zzeXO08_8%3Ds96-c&points=VVTFUwjW0T5qVsVThQzMPg", "title": "Will AI Safety Impact Markets (a crowdsourced charity evaluator) reach > 100 monthly active users in December 2023?", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "40% chance. Our strongest month so far was June 2022 with 61 monthly active users. Over the course of 2023, we've had 5\u201322 MAU. But the purpose of the platform is to provide donation recommendations, and a lot of people donate in December, so that I would expect December to be the strongest month. December 2022 (just 10 MAU) is not representative as we didn't have the charity recommendation features at the time, which we only launched in January 2023.\n\nWe're only counting signed-in users in this statistic, not any kind of browser-fingerprinting heuristic. I haven't changed how the statistic is calculated in about half a year and don't expect to make changes this year. We currently (Sep. 18, 2023) have 243 users in total.\n\nBackground: The platform is impactmarkets.io. 100 MAU is our approximate goal for phase 1 of our rollout. If we reach it, we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. Our long-term vision is to establish \u201cgeneralized carbon credits\u201d in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding.\n\nH/t to Nu\u00f1o for nudging me to post this.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ai-safety", "ai", "charity", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Our platform depends on some number of donors who either contribute insider knowledge or in-depth research to the marketplace by registering their donations. We call them project scouts. They can optionally join our public ranking at https://app.impactmarkets.io/ranking, which makes them easier to track. These project scouts seek to influence the recommendations that our platform generates for other donors like an aggregate of regrantor opinions.\n\nTo join the ranking, they have to register donations to projects that subsequently receive a positive evaluation score. So the number of ranked project scouts can increase because new project scouts join and register their old donations, or because additional projects receive an evaluation. We're gearing up for such an evaluation round right now and hope to complete it next month. Their number can also drop if project scouts opt out of the public ranking.\n\n(Edit: The evaluation round is now complete. You can read about it on Substack. I'm planning to resolve this question to YES on Jan 1, 2024, if the number of ranked regrantors is still greater or equal at that point. I didn't want it to be interpreted as YES if the number only briefly peaks above 15 and then drops below again because that could've easily have happened in a way that is hard to reconstruct (I'd have to dig into the database) or by accident (e.g., I introduce a bug and fix it soon after). These worries are now moot, but I'd rather stick to my original plan.)\n\nBackground: We are currently in phase 1 of our rollout. Later we want to introduce our platform currency, a precursor for impact credits. (See also https://manifold.markets/DawnDrescher/will-ai-safety-impact-markets-a-cro.) Our long-term vision is to establish \u201cgeneralized carbon credits\u201d in the form of tradable impact credits to solve problems with the funding allocation to early-stage altruistic projects, access to talent, and derisking of public good funding.\n\nH/t to Nu\u00f1o for nudging me to post this.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "aGEiDCkZvy6bpLSEgqr5", "creatorId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "creatorUsername": "howahlah", "creatorName": "howahlah", "createdTime": 1710795108854, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fhowahlah%2FIo-WKZQAT4.webp?alt=media&token=dc3be555-03e2-4b4b-806a-8ad38ae98918", "closeTime": 1711781940000, "question": "Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' (2024) have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than 'Ghostbusters: Afterlife' (2021)?", "slug": "will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-6621ac60bedc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-6621ac60bedc", "pool": {"NO": 32.09183426666191, "YES": 1694.1502000464739}, "probability": 0.0170403278194625, "p": 0.4778519003220445, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2197.1478839320325, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1711782562349, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "iPIwiy5uHBUuXKW43XoIXg15PKW2", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711781940000, "lastBetTime": 1711778751175, "lastCommentTime": 1711782553005, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ghostbusters: Afterlife", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ghostbusters_afterlife", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics\u2019 score) of 64%", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/ghostbusters_frozen_empire", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (2024) receives a score of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "65% or higher", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " one week after release", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if it receives 64% or lower", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related market:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-74399d52ae73", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ghostbusters", "television-film", "movies", "entertainment", "rotten-tomatoes"], "textDescription": "Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics\u2019 score) of 64%\n\nResolves YES if Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (2024) receives a score of 65% or higher one week after release\n\nResolves NO if it receives 64% or lower\n\nRelated market:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-ghostbusters-frozen-empire-202-74399d52ae73)"}, {"id": "rD9XrIbIIkCFzARJZNDW", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1701903313413, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1702411200000, "question": "Will Intel close higher December 12 than December 5 (INTC Weekly)", "slug": "will-intel-close-higher-december-12", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-intel-close-higher-december-12", "pool": {"NO": 1775.7334317414407, "YES": 78.98285016543032}, "probability": 0.9830354656320395, "p": 0.7204675866248978, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1603.9808539728451, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702417669331, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702417666183, "lastBetTime": 1702409551201, "lastCommentTime": 1702417665572, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close Price: 41.92", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC?p=INTC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC?p=INTC", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts/6139c4cc7028.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=BcTU67sXo22iQReENbTPbI78PGv%2Fv%2B%2FwQVU4dJ42pu171%2F7c%2B1YDo30tc47Uj4ri5YkQzJOZNZnXnl3xwI%2FXMs%2BxOT91vxnuNL7pRsDb58%2BTxlWxU761tD2sdS3tSci9JOnFbCgLrHR7sGVb1XN6uNPNUfnX3%2BIrfKeZK6yQnnG99USBmjVd9Tx%2FlDfWkEpYnk7jbsNJ9zYqaXqQaLPz1xRC%2BbbA37d0JFDbK4t9tvun4OpVUleZPAhMvJduw4%2Br8vb1wCs92c3ml%2FA6Rx4lHmB0N3kUW99SsBTI%2BMvwWeocrKTwlx31tBDlGwodIN1ILMtaIaweMrkj5RR0Vh3%2FdA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["finance", "stock-marketweekly", "intel", "economics-default", "stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Previous Close Price: 41.92\n\nThis market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.\n\nhttps://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC?p=INTC"}, {"id": "COCVtqKHVMK22hPWqMTG", "creatorId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "creatorUsername": "MP", "creatorName": "MP", "createdTime": 1703104778212, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMP%2FJMyU-Pb-y4.51?alt=media&token=445f6754-d875-41a9-ad73-c272a1e866bf", "closeTime": 1703286711687, "question": "Will Alireza Firouzja win both his games against Sergey Fedorchuk?", "slug": "will-alireza-firouzja-win-both-his", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MP/will-alireza-firouzja-win-both-his", "pool": {"NO": 20.367265851096846, "YES": 25.932193390927722}, "probability": 0.010000000000000014, "p": 0.012697596415746389, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 841.9640062137586, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703286711687, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "H8mXkmJcikfoYF0rQQ83qsHEWRn1", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206815623, "lastBetTime": 1703267965776, "lastCommentTime": 1703303228045, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Self-describing. GM Alireza Firouzja will play to classic games against GM Sergey Fedorchuk, a match full of controversy, including of match fixing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I may bet on this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/MP%2F5e110d1b0ed4.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["chess", "chess-candidates-2024"], "textDescription": "Self-describing. GM Alireza Firouzja will play to classic games against GM Sergey Fedorchuk, a match full of controversy, including of match fixing.\n\nI may bet on this market."}, {"id": "HMgfYAP59ORe9wRr4UPc", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1701974671655, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1702051200000, "question": "Will DAX Performance Index close higher december 8th than the close of december 7th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-41eb0f4398dc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-dax-performance-index-close-hi-41eb0f4398dc", "pool": {"NO": 1082.9672898646038, "YES": 155.7690840992753}, "probability": 0.966304879311652, "p": 0.8048741180745193, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1271.6973030016452, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1702055763073, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702055757099, "lastBetTime": 1702048016984, "lastCommentTime": 1702055756334, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DAX closes 6 PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 5 PM MEZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FrwQRo9i-HO.png?alt=media&token=f8a46265-ed37-46d4-b3c0-92ff48e6322a", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LINK-USD?comparison=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Orimos/d07584c04722.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=FXoV6Xoyez8u13kvHcSzZkSDSFDRAk5bPJLJscvSLCoqwNKohJbKWENIovchcPGxJrdvNDzTuLe6hcCA%2BbIcbqehdtiCZgfmtks0hgG9fV8WDDD9bSxMDFSZhpXkyg8q50F7R6eVTx3Tv9y8SPSsN7WuaHcgQAyPSAw2ag0dg4s0SKjWeb7J72nUDRk57OILyhRJI6SOyZRo30SqyFVW9q3SkQ2yRuiSDgj96mAy%2Bz6R03Z7Rvc1gl8LoLFtF8PL6ES0pkGEK%2Fs53ChA3woXlc6nsI2kq3MM9U9tnu5YvLZ%2FQx53GBZhOFB3IfO25PC5PXAeSwXr3BYoUSrGb%2B2Q%2FQ%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "finance", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "DAX closes 6 PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 5 PM MEZ.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/DAX:INDEXDB at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "MGX0qaH6fLc6DI2l8fDI", "creatorId": "ffwIBb255DhSsJRh3VWZ4RY2pxz2", "creatorUsername": "Predictor", "creatorName": "Predictor \ud83d\udd25", "createdTime": 1666984433274, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTomasz%2F163020267391503_P13265328.png?alt=media&token=a582175c-9bed-405c-a22a-9833cd6cbc4e", "closeTime": 1667242800000, "question": "Will the Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) stock price close over $4.75 on October 31, 2022?", "slug": "will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1832a6ee4207", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-the-bed-bath-beyond-inc-bbby-s-1832a6ee4207", "pool": {"NO": 247.79604383613062, "YES": 389.4880317115351}, "probability": 0.3600000000000008, "p": 0.4692545860461678, "totalLiquidity": 340, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1724.051242208425, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1667246516380, "resolutionProbability": 0.3600000000000009, "uniqueBettorCount": 16, "lastUpdatedTime": 1667242381168, "lastBetTime": 1667242380861, "lastCommentTime": 1667232126795, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Betting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Excellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Reference: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FJp66Fg8Ad5.png?alt=media&token=777f5986-d857-41dd-8196-57b52d7a8ed9", "groupSlugs": ["wall-street-bets"], "textDescription": "This market resolves YES if BBBY stock is at or over the stated amount in the question.\n\nBetting closes at 3pm ET, and question is resolved after 4pm ET stock market close. \n\nExcellent short-term play, offering quick daily resolutions, and depending on the trading day, easy profits for putting into long-term markets.\n\nThis question does not recognize after-hours trading, only the official close price listed on Yahoo! Finance for that day is used for the resolution of this question.\n\nReference: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BBBY/history?p=BBBY"}, {"id": "WVy3ShGECVvO7UtiBypY", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701815003378, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1701896427073, "question": "Will the TSX close higher on December 6 than it did on December 5?", "slug": "will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-59767ba76df9", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-the-tsx-close-higher-on-decemb-59767ba76df9", "pool": {"NO": 37.53194014169171, "YES": 504.38150116196}, "probability": 0.08790822924432563, "p": 0.5643150810996631, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1002.517395673296, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1701915693365, "resolutionProbability": 0.09, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701897669163, "lastBetTime": 1701896243937, "lastCommentTime": 1701897668435, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "3a3f8698-d05b-4a76-9443-2d528fdcdeac", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "S&P/TSX Composite Index Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill the TSX close higher on November 3 than it did on November 2?p88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFOCgB83AAMkkOHSrTnzanibacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5a59a15eb-7184-4fa0-a9a3-9c7a048ee0f5QDQfgsFiQrNNlZhsRGf5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest S&P/TSX Composite Index (OSPTX) value, historical performance, charts, and other financial information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/afc3ae7a37aa.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=Pw%2FGMpLOxOF8tgGaAHQO6H3ss4SZdvSEk3BoEIQFjyGXeBWQOZwPuyti6abpTRMGMcfQBC%2BFS7fFRvKGS7cmiXlfAP%2BVk1TdZG47MSGXJH57xt9v10L5kbTCkEilELa91%2FtJUtwZ560x7rp8auVj%2FZb9dopoSu2tJ0JnHBiYvNUMJ58%2FV%2FczmUdcBmDV8axkxZB0Qnq64MAEDTEtkEE6mAOV0MFX4trsBTxvqLA%2FC8Kx0EvrI5PjIFLwIQMbnWPDjxL8MQ4kefJYnNAxPflYr2MG12fsbfW2StdDAhE3%2FMnlvMfT%2BuYPaOuJeZ6PI7BkxqecQsneg4jKuTlHQ0eZtg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["hawsbollah", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 2pm EST, the Toronto Stock Exchange closes at 4pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/OSPTX:INDEXTSI\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "5dgFiqz2mOo8tLpMhM4A", "creatorId": "cb6PJqGOSVPEUhprDHCKWWMuJqu1", "creatorUsername": "DanMan314", "creatorName": "Dan", "createdTime": 1699083598382, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDanMan314%2F_f4i8nH8a6.jpg?alt=media&token=d2ff79f8-0cea-4acc-99e0-a993f643533a", "closeTime": 1702053564461, "question": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase from October to November 2023?", "slug": "will-the-realtime-sahm-rule-recessi-cb93f86dedd6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-the-realtime-sahm-rule-recessi-cb93f86dedd6", "pool": {"NO": 20.72798036191483, "YES": 867.7777777777778}, "probability": 0.006153880557034192, "p": 0.20586246762540467, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 860, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702053564461, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702053163475, "lastBetTime": 1702043683092, "lastCommentTime": 1702053163095, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In October 2023, the SAHM indicator ticked up from .2 to .33, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "generating some buzz on Twitter.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm/status/1720534747942642003", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the SAHM indicator linked above is .34 or higher in when data is released for November 2023. Otherwise, it resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME\n\nThe Sahm indicator is a US recession indicator, equal to the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate, and the minimum 3-month average unemployment rate in the preceding 12 months. It is a measure of how rapidly unemployment is increasing.\n\nIn October 2023, the SAHM indicator ticked up from .2 to .33, generating some buzz on Twitter.\n\nThis market resolves YES if the SAHM indicator linked above is .34 or higher in when data is released for November 2023. Otherwise, it resolves NO."}, {"id": "Ac12dv953ZNNaD7xug9J", "creatorId": "Rq5KrjZr1Eg7uoHvudBVBOnbao42", "creatorUsername": "finn", "creatorName": "Finn", "createdTime": 1697302745645, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Ffinn%2FAMSCbFdDQL.jpg?alt=media&token=349ab73e-f675-4d19-bcab-3f50b0a3feba", "closeTime": 1713049140000, "question": "Will Hamas be governing Gaza City on 13 April 2024?", "slug": "will-hamas-be-governing-gaza-city-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/finn/will-hamas-be-governing-gaza-city-o", "pool": {"NO": 149.52156693349733, "YES": 1027.0034526226395}, "probability": 0.028515731166702928, "p": 0.16778474609782273, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 853.8565334062333, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1713118446938, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "Rq5KrjZr1Eg7uoHvudBVBOnbao42", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713049140000, "lastBetTime": 1713035820398, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "De facto control \u2014 resolves according to my judgement. I will not bet in this market (except for setting the initial price).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarifying questions are welcome.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From here:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "c962d526-81c7-4c96-b61a-f7067cc58811", "url": "https://www.swiftcentre.org/israel-hamas-war-will-probably-be-the-deadliest-of-the-last-75-years-of-conflict/", "image": "https://www.swiftcentre.org/content/images/2023/10/Untitled_Artwork-443.jpg", "title": "Israel\u2019s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Israel-Hamas forecasting part 1: of all the wars in the last 75 years of Arab-Israeli conflict, this one is probably going to be the deadliest.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fb72iEikOVh.jpg?alt=media&token=2f91e2ac-4331-4cb5-83b2-12ca654098fb", "groupSlugs": ["arabisraeli-conflict", "israel", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"], "textDescription": "De facto control \u2014 resolves according to my judgement. I will not bet in this market (except for setting the initial price).\n\nClarifying questions are welcome.\n\nFrom here:\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "gVk0W0eCXcjdlaKsDXU2", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703082302624, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703372400000, "question": "Will DOT close higher on December 23 than it closed on December 22?", "slug": "will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-e089b4a72994", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-dot-close-higher-on-december-2-e089b4a72994", "pool": {"NO": 493.04477626449574, "YES": 45.39310639529573}, "probability": 0.8974668404312982, "p": 0.4462460870320094, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 694.9840469224192, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703379551803, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703379548162, "lastBetTime": 1703372106101, "lastCommentTime": 1703379547686, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "View the live price", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/polkadot/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nView the live price\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page\n \n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "KEYKlDDY4vdjO2PgLcDh", "creatorId": "WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2", "creatorUsername": "mudPi314", "creatorName": "Pi", "createdTime": 1697827058193, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtfLz-CeU4IpWRnFKzCpd_ZtPr8drrF-Ay9ky60GQxPyWA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704175140000, "question": "Will the \"Eliezer doom button\" market resolve N/A?", "slug": "will-the-eliezer-doom-button-market", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mudPi314/will-the-eliezer-doom-button-market", "pool": {"NO": 733.2184551532227, "YES": 284.6943480786627}, "probability": 0.8963467331257677, "p": 0.7705197673110955, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1285.1031370022777, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704175511762, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "resolverId": "WwlOiDUSRQaKR4mPACCIUjryr0o2", "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704175512063, "lastBetTime": 1703254874481, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if this market resolves N/A", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/marcer/would-eliezer-yudkowsky-press-a-but?r=bXVkUGkzMTQ", "frameBorder": 0}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FOAGRo96wFz.png?alt=media&token=2d3414ec-6217-4bb6-aece-eec5d979f42f", "groupSlugs": ["eliezer-yudkowsky-25acf68e45f1", "ai-alignment", "metamarkets", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if this market resolves N/A\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/marcer/would-eliezer-yudkowsky-press-a-but?r=bXVkUGkzMTQ)"}, {"id": "lpUAe5Hpps8NzRTktdzT", "creatorId": "WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2", "creatorUsername": "XComhghall", "creatorName": "XComhghall", "createdTime": 1688678370800, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoyangMa%2FTHxCM3LLa1.png?alt=media&token=91f8a3e9-8e2c-4508-a4e9-0109dba72b4d", "closeTime": 1689455167060, "question": "Will the Nasdaq Composite reach 13550 or lower by 7/14/2023? [1 week]", "slug": "will-the-nasdaq-composite-reach-135", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-reach-135", "pool": {"NO": 52.90520223423664, "YES": 47545.904487578395}, "probability": 0.00026615887255734567, "p": 0.19306725754146517, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 48781.14899810625, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689455167060, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689455226828, "lastBetTime": 1689455160588, "lastCommentTime": 1689455222676, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By or on 7/14.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See also: ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "09TvECJy9ApeDEx0lobT", "label": "/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-reach-137-1b42eec2c2b6"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "zgRQ9qc28Y9d482tKjAy", "label": "/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-close-at-514fc08ff9cd"}}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "7/6\t\tClose 13679.04\tLow 13567.25", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/COMP/historical-prices", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/COMP/historical-prices", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock"], "textDescription": "By or on 7/14.\n\nSee also: @/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-reach-137-1b42eec2c2b6\n\n@/XComhghall/will-the-nasdaq-composite-close-at-514fc08ff9cd7/6\t\tClose 13679.04\tLow 13567.25\n\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/COMP/historical-prices"}, {"id": "Sm0FzXIPOyAlm9Dla9ZL", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1677859273993, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1680200450721, "question": "Will Vaush's side channel reach 126k subscribers in March?", "slug": "will-vaushs-side-channel-reach-126k", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-side-channel-reach-126k", "pool": {"NO": 10493.718927382824, "YES": 4.236255440146124}, "probability": 0.9997597299973162, "p": 0.6268330955399206, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12342.045756104271, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1680200450721, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218565019, "lastBetTime": 1680200446443, "lastCommentTime": 1680200192348, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FiPvkiXwCHG.png?alt=media&token=51e4fbd2-a7ed-413e-8756-56940bfdcc75", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/thevaushpit"}, {"id": "3blo97EsgK7s4znQayMk", "creatorId": "5HTIDGak13ZoEqJrUGiRXlCAm6j1", "creatorUsername": "Nadja_L", "creatorName": "Nadja_L", "createdTime": 1696650102774, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FNadja_L%2FcCAhz0-h8g.png?alt=media&token=9a3141e1-c6a2-4ed6-a9e3-be260d7f97f8", "closeTime": 1701417540000, "question": "Will the BBC report Pakistan forcibly expelled \"illegal\" Afghan migrants in November 2023?", "slug": "will-the-bbc-report-pakistan-forcib", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Nadja_L/will-the-bbc-report-pakistan-forcib", "pool": {"NO": 563.0143350018974, "YES": 119.60365413670883}, "probability": 0.9432072638571932, "p": 0.779156208120475, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 554.4472991840497, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701454632213, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701416345781, "lastBetTime": 1701416345655, "lastCommentTime": 1701128186989, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Pakistan has announced that all \"illegal\" migrants must leave by November 1, 2023 or be forcibly expelled (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "BBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67002834", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). The Taliban has responded stating this is unacceptable. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market resolves YES if the BBC reports that Pakistan has forcibly expelled refugees in November, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["pakistan", "politics-default", "afghanistan"], "textDescription": "Pakistan has announced that all \"illegal\" migrants must leave by November 1, 2023 or be forcibly expelled (BBC). The Taliban has responded stating this is unacceptable. \n\nThis market resolves YES if the BBC reports that Pakistan has forcibly expelled refugees in November, 2023."}, {"id": "ZNpmJNsuuwSIRo6Tdp3o", "creatorId": "7zrgCUnRxNec0U45P15f05GVjCB2", "creatorUsername": "nickten", "creatorName": "nickten \ud83d\udc99\ud83d\udca6\ud83d\udc2c", "createdTime": 1670623642242, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fnickten%2FnOPnUeAkcN.jpg?alt=media&token=879a9121-6b63-4788-b364-97b0abbf579f", "closeTime": 1670964974825, "question": "Argentina vs Croatia - Will more than 3 goals be scored?", "slug": "argentina-vs-croatia-will-more-than", "url": "https://manifold.markets/nickten/argentina-vs-croatia-will-more-than", "pool": {"NO": 15.727587382761008, "YES": 3731.678754008322}, "probability": 0.0035690713328918847, "p": 0.4594201419724667, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11929.145050529583, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1670964974825, "resolutionProbability": 0.41, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1670964930359, "lastBetTime": 1670964930206, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "0, 1, 2 or 3 combined goals = NO", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "4 or more = YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overtime/extra time goals do count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Shoot-out goals ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "do not count", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FVgZ-r18gWU.png?alt=media&token=05f30a2e-2513-4c21-a082-55f7fd73b470", "groupSlugs": ["2022-fifa-world-cup"], "textDescription": "0, 1, 2 or 3 combined goals = NO\n\n4 or more = YES\n\nOvertime/extra time goals do count.\n\nShoot-out goals do not count."}, {"id": "2DI1ua9gWU5EuJQVpUcL", "creatorId": "JKKfoNZbBmPrzJbtzkev4zrwcN33", "creatorUsername": "stormtk293", "creatorName": "Stormtrooper TK-293", "createdTime": 1662477240571, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fggscout%2FztqvH37YDo.jpg?alt=media&token=3be1ea0d-d1ac-4048-8ca6-a1710c873245", "closeTime": 1664331281419, "question": "Will USD/CNY breaks 7.2 before the end of Q1 2023?", "slug": "will-usdcny-breaks-72-before-the-en", "url": "https://manifold.markets/stormtk293/will-usdcny-breaks-72-before-the-en", "pool": {"NO": 6433.102518634411, "YES": 98.13415988110273}, "probability": 0.9877973319972034, "p": 0.5525418698847534, "totalLiquidity": 640, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6225.606800028374, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1664331281419, "resolutionProbability": 0.8803381515270056, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710964226624, "lastBetTime": 1664331208268, "lastCommentTime": 1710964225976, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.2000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "China is a currency manipulator in fact but on a \u201cmonitoring list\u201d for currency practices along with nine other countries, including Germany, Italy and Japan. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll go by whatever is the latest quoted price shown on ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Investing.com", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "http://Investing.com", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://in.investing.com/currencies/usd-cny", "height": 0, "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "finance", "china"], "textDescription": "This resolves to YES if the USD/CNY exchange rate breaks 7.2000 before the beginning of April 2023 (GMT+8).\n\nChina is a currency manipulator in fact but on a \u201cmonitoring list\u201d for currency practices along with nine other countries, including Germany, Italy and Japan. \n\nI'll go by whatever is the latest quoted price shown on Investing.com.\n\n(https://in.investing.com/currencies/usd-cny)"}, {"id": "f0iZLkzVdCV37O8CUcqX", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1672778473404, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1673103987159, "question": "Will George Santos's swearing-in be delayed after the en masse swearing-in of all Members of the House?", "slug": "will-george-santoss-swearingin-be-d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-george-santoss-swearingin-be-d", "pool": {"NO": 58.39641797239506, "YES": 1408.4644857817589}, "probability": 0.004451680032406433, "p": 0.09735095518975631, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2702.8039352770165, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1673103987159, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1673103981471, "lastBetTime": 1673103981313, "lastCommentTime": 1673078115930, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The swearing in ceremony takes place after the Speaker election. The Speaker is sworn in first, and then the Speaker administers the oath of office en masse to all Members of the House, with the exception of members not present for some reason, e.g. delays due to illness or other circumstances, or any challenges to the swearing-in of a member. (See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30725", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30725", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ")", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Santos is not part of the en-masse swearing in, i.e. if his swearing-in is delayed or if he is never sworn in. This could be due to a challenge to his swearing-in, him deciding not to take his seat, absense due to illness or other circumstance, or death. Resolves NO if he is part of the en-masse swearing-in.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves N/A in the unlikely event that the House procedures substantially differ from the usual procedures in a way that makes these resolution criteria no longer make sense.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "discovered to have fabricated his resume", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/nyregion/george-santos-ny-republicans.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "admitted to it", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/26/politics/george-santos-admits-embellishing-resume/index.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". In addition, he is now facing a number of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "investigations", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/federal-prosecutors-open-investigation-rep-elect-george-santos-congres-rcna63657", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for possible campaign finance fraud.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "7ebEe9rs84gTifpGV3KQ,iB3MUCFuoXxdLPT3iv9m,mUvuAMDJVcLjwcFgoTQy"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fmi2h_CqP1b.png?alt=media&token=6a65d710-a20e-4872-990e-dd3bab376637", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "118th-congress", "george-santos"], "textDescription": "The swearing in ceremony takes place after the Speaker election. The Speaker is sworn in first, and then the Speaker administers the oath of office en masse to all Members of the House, with the exception of members not present for some reason, e.g. delays due to illness or other circumstances, or any challenges to the swearing-in of a member. (See https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30725)\n\nResolves YES if Santos is not part of the en-masse swearing in, i.e. if his swearing-in is delayed or if he is never sworn in. This could be due to a challenge to his swearing-in, him deciding not to take his seat, absense due to illness or other circumstance, or death. Resolves NO if he is part of the en-masse swearing-in.\n\nResolves N/A in the unlikely event that the House procedures substantially differ from the usual procedures in a way that makes these resolution criteria no longer make sense.\n\nContext: Santos, who was elected to Congress in November 2022, was discovered to have fabricated his resume and admitted to it. In addition, he is now facing a number of investigations for possible campaign finance fraud.\n\nRelated\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "h6dptphMTz2TgVa1FPFM", "creatorId": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "creatorUsername": "Carrotcake", "creatorName": "Supreme Carrot", "createdTime": 1708404212927, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKoffiEklou%2FoLHseamulM.PNG?alt=media&token=12629652-5628-4754-ac9e-2dfe7bfd842f", "closeTime": 1713066550222, "question": "Will Bo Nickal beat Cody Brundage at UFC 300?", "slug": "will-bo-nickal-beat-cody-beundage-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Carrotcake/will-bo-nickal-beat-cody-beundage-a", "pool": {"NO": 2398.69858729252, "YES": 56.404152761919086}, "probability": 0.99, "p": 0.69951323871009, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2353.6243357562753, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1713066550222, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "CoeMNUk0b7WouGke4R8dCMXg7Ox2", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1713066550222, "lastBetTime": 1713062191263, "lastCommentTime": 1709428595218, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022This market will resolve in a YES if Bo Nickal wins the fight. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A draw will resolve in a NO. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A defeat of Bo Nickal will result in a NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022A disqualification of Bo Nickal will be considered a loss.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 The market will resolve in a YES in case Cody Brundage is disqualified.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 A disqualification of Cody Brundage will result in a YES.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u2022 A Forfeit by Cody Brundage will result in a No", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fbb_kfV8mP1.png?alt=media&token=79a35a28-badd-4777-ba18-7ff13dcf0e39", "groupSlugs": ["ufc", "fighting", "mma", "ufc-300"], "textDescription": "\u2022This market will resolve in a YES if Bo Nickal wins the fight. \n\n\u2022A draw will resolve in a NO. \n\n\u2022A defeat of Bo Nickal will result in a NO.\n\n\u2022A disqualification of Bo Nickal will be considered a loss.\n\n\u2022 The market will resolve NO if the fight gets cancelled \n\n\u2022 The market will resolve in a YES in case Cody Brundage is disqualified.\n\n\u2022 A disqualification of Cody Brundage will result in a YES.\n\n\u2022 A Forfeit by Cody Brundage will result in a No"}, {"id": "f8TaR6DeR6LMhFHakyep", "creatorId": "Y005WvA8t7WG4cZBds7rHzyiOdT2", "creatorUsername": "Nika_from_Poland", "creatorName": "Nika", "createdTime": 1654033346587, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJytxK2m8ZrZgLBL3kjJjV5gFblgiShDZYKj6Glt=s96-c", "closeTime": 1672549140000, "question": "Will this paper get into Cell?", "slug": "will-this-paper-get-into-cell", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Nika_from_Poland/will-this-paper-get-into-cell", "pool": {"NO": 404.0931871130081, "YES": 620.6974365397208}, "probability": 0.15000000000000013, "p": 0.21325713471365004, "totalLiquidity": 441.7709751242858, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 270.30635393290714, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1689103984405, "resolutionProbability": 0.15, "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689205054637, "lastBetTime": 1672546591416, "lastCommentTime": 1689205050885, "description": "The paper is \"A Chloroplast Protein Atlas Reveals Novel Structures and Spatial Organization of Biosynthetic Pathways\", I'm one of the authors, here's the preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.31.493820v1, we submitted it to Cell and it got sent out for review.  \n\nI'm testing Manifold's ability to predict scientific publishing results, although I don't know that we'll get enough people with opinions to get sensible predictions on this sort of thing.\n\nWill resolve this whenever the final decision gets made, which usually takes a few months, but might be longer if they ask for additional experiments etc.", "groupSlugs": ["science-default"], "textDescription": "The paper is \"A Chloroplast Protein Atlas Reveals Novel Structures and Spatial Organization of Biosynthetic Pathways\", I'm one of the authors, here's the preprint: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.31.493820v1, we submitted it to Cell and it got sent out for review.  \n\nI'm testing Manifold's ability to predict scientific publishing results, although I don't know that we'll get enough people with opinions to get sensible predictions on this sort of thing.\n\nWill resolve this whenever the final decision gets made, which usually takes a few months, but might be longer if they ask for additional experiments etc."}, {"id": "NlIHXD040QpYUBCohrQi", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1681390887597, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682513479927, "question": "Will the #4 Phoenix Suns win their First Round Series against the #5 Los Angeles Clippers in the 2023 NBA Playoffs?", "slug": "will-the-4-phoenix-suns-win-their-f", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-4-phoenix-suns-win-their-f", "pool": {"NO": 2867.6511442409783, "YES": 143.07351307493724}, "probability": 0.9854351485885446, "p": 0.7714615118726343, "totalLiquidity": 330, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 7389.859148534251, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1682513479927, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682499361382, "lastBetTime": 1682496245942, "lastCommentTime": 1682499357980, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Additional markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "ALQ5ImUrt19xA4DS0wo3,3kHJtchopvQYlpOdeilm,jXop0rhfYpLG3ugXI21c"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdO1ShV4HTY.png?alt=media&token=35f3a02c-ed0a-4ae0-8d58-a3cf1fea692f", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default"], "textDescription": "This will resolve as soon as a series winner is determined (which occurs after one team wins four out of seven games).\n\nAdditional markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "Lss1uMAymUET1W6jq2yQ", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707544485734, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707803533269, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Vegas Golden Knights beat Minnesota Wild on Feb 12?", "slug": "will-the-vegas-golden-knights-beat-31e58f0faa46", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-vegas-golden-knights-beat-31e58f0faa46", "pool": {"NO": 5.079982570704752, "YES": 2269.9087565163913}, "probability": 0.0011439736431787747, "p": 0.3385157142540684, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4776.896926732947, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1707803533269, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 17, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707803533975, "lastBetTime": 1707803234872, "lastCommentTime": 1707803361879, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild @9pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=knights+vs+wild#sie=m;/g/11svwd6kgt;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market Inspired by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Haws", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Haws", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F41c806bcf019.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["hockey", "yuna-league-beta", "fun", "vegas-golden-knights", "nhl", "sports-default", "entertainment", "minnesota-wild", "sports-betting", "technology-default"], "textDescription": "Vegas Golden Knights vs Minnesota Wild @9pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Vegas Golden Knights win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\nMarket Inspired by Haws"}, {"id": "HIzEeHECOPmR98Vtfpfy", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1683827142858, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1688183940000, "question": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of June?", "slug": "will-ukraine-regain-control-of-cent-cb92bbc08aa7", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-cent-cb92bbc08aa7", "pool": {"NO": 341.10559413556985, "YES": 25274.689096253765}, "probability": 0.005535404234847868, "p": 0.29200352345320346, "totalLiquidity": 1350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 49987.92513449277, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688274707243, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 69, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688195004778, "lastBetTime": 1688175798826, "lastCommentTime": 1688195001325, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if on any date before July 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "according to maps provided by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Institute for the Study of War (ISW)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Background", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Bakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution details", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "See ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://deepstatemap.live/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deepstatemap.live/en", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://liveuamap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liveuamap.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "bakhmut"], "textDescription": "Resolution\n\nResolves YES if on any date before July 2023, Ukraine reclaims control of the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building, located at address:\n\nOleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\n\naccording to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise NO.\n\nFor this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).\n\nBackground\n\nBakhmut has been a focal point of ongoing fighting in the Ukraine-Russia war, and recent reporting shows Ukraine has driven back Russian forces in some areas around Bakhmut: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukraine-russian-forces-bakhmut-counteroffensive-prigozhin-uk-missiles-rcna83890\n\nResolution details\n\nResolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the address specified above.\n\nResolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the date of a map update will be determined based on the archived maps on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.\n\nSee https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.\n\nThe question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.\n\nRelated: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/"}, {"id": "FmJGpnlHTtKEnDD0q1Uo", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1707282976590, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1707363000000, "question": "\ud83c\udfd2Will the Toronto Maple Leafs beat Dallas Stars on Feb 7?", "slug": "will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-beat-d-5496575d5ecf", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/will-the-toronto-maple-leafs-beat-d-5496575d5ecf", "pool": {"NO": 3238.8907538627045, "YES": 87.30550695630605}, "probability": 0.9948047611178167, "p": 0.837702403209361, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3916.699579291302, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1707365784883, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1707365785128, "lastBetTime": 1707360396283, "lastCommentTime": 1707365766319, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=leafs+vs+stars#sie=m;/g/11v150spmw;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Toronto Maple Leafs win. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F6c334ae88d86.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["dallas-stars", "yuna-league-beta", "hockey", "nhl", "ice-hockey", "sports-default", "toronto-maple-leafs"], "textDescription": "Toronto Maple Leafs vs Dallas Stars @6pm CST\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Toronto Maple Leafs win. \n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n"}, {"id": "RoFfYC0k4nu87k0bO1jM", "creatorId": "o7Tu72Hb0cfLG8oKEfiaMszxuJ82", "creatorUsername": "LesterCrafton", "creatorName": "Lester Crafton", "createdTime": 1698508895164, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocJNn7nhYlR8GZkNQK-rITEHLOSMfzRLyqqUXnIDmU5MQRQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1699581084073, "question": "Will Brittney Spears' new book, \"The Woman in Me\" (Oct 24 release) be on the Nov. 19th NYT Bestsellers List Top 5?", "slug": "will-brittney-spears-new-book-the-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LesterCrafton/will-brittney-spears-new-book-the-w", "pool": {"NO": 478.79352785178116, "YES": 297.7107274474679}, "probability": 0.8443543869057044, "p": 0.7713312431935425, "totalLiquidity": 342.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 178.84707503358416, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699581084073, "resolutionProbability": 0.84, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699581105207, "lastBetTime": 1699572816020, "lastCommentTime": 1699581104504, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve as \"YES\" if Britney's book is in the top five of the New York Times' \"Combined Print and E-Book non-fiction list: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Will resolve as \"NO\" otherwise.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Note that this is for the bestseller list dated November ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "19th bestsellers' list, not for the bestsellers' list on the date November 19th.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FJpZhv88zNC.52?alt=media&token=966c9b7c-595f-4a0f-b1e5-2eaf908419ae", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "britney-spears", "entertainment", "books"], "textDescription": "Will resolve as \"YES\" if Britney's book is in the top five of the New York Times' \"Combined Print and E-Book non-fiction list: https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/\n\nWill resolve as \"NO\" otherwise.\n\nNote that this is for the bestseller list dated November \n\n19th bestsellers' list, not for the bestsellers' list on the date November 19th.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "Jn6HpQ3vY5BF976iYdhT", "creatorId": "xN67Q0mAhddL0X9wVYP2YfOrYH42", "creatorUsername": "jonny", "creatorName": "Jonny Spicer", "createdTime": 1677704998948, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GikSB2nbgbE_S2n-QUj9ydaNOX1w3QHIQrkvSsQHA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703965820134, "question": "Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?", "slug": "will-amazon-be-in-the-top-10-compan-618b579e7013", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jonny/will-amazon-be-in-the-top-10-compan-618b579e7013", "pool": {"NO": 8342.597461369427, "YES": 279.8462537319409}, "probability": 0.9937299878844957, "p": 0.8416821471382127, "totalLiquidity": 550, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10584.039753360168, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703965820134, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 30, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703972792210, "lastBetTime": 1703965719426, "lastCommentTime": 1703972791478, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve YES if Nvidia has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://companiesmarketcap.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " although I'm open to better offers.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Mar 1, 9:10pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Amazon be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FmYy6rcfG6G.png?alt=media&token=8ad9583d-f785-4363-b31b-3add142a1723", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "technology-default", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Will resolve YES if Nvidia has one of the top 10 largest market caps in the world at the time that markets close on December 31st 2023. Seeing as I don't have access to a Bloomberg Terminal, I'm planning on resolving using https://companiesmarketcap.com/ although I'm open to better offers.\n\nMar 1, 9:10pm: Will Amazon be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023? \u2192 Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?"}, {"id": "IJYocJCB1yOBYcYmNnkh", "creatorId": "uyzAXSRdCCUWs4KstCLq2GfzAip2", "creatorUsername": "BoltonBailey", "creatorName": "Bolton Bailey", "createdTime": 1672809442684, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoltonBailey%2Fsandpile.gif?alt=media&token=0ee5d4ad-984f-439d-a636-412c606f9103", "closeTime": 1672894740000, "question": "Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Wednesday?", "slug": "will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-f35890ae4f6d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-the-next-speaker-of-the-house-f35890ae4f6d", "pool": {"NO": 210.61938899460168, "YES": 4344.195638896604}, "probability": 0.004704232238014589, "p": 0.08882764680829579, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5609.892078799812, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1672899307661, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1672893092350, "lastBetTime": 1672893092222, "lastCommentTime": 1672811232724, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Wednesday, January 4th (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the first ballot fails to provide a speaker, lawmakers will continue to vote until a candidate receives a", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\u00a0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "majority. Members can vote for different candidates each ballot.\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It's not common that there is more than one ballot, but it has happened.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In 1923, it took multiple ballots \u2013 nine \u2013 over the course of two months to elect a speaker. On three occasions prior to the Civil War, a speaker was not elected on the first ballot. In\u00a0one instance, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "it took 133 ballots over a period of two months", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1851-1900/The-longest-and-most-contentious-Speaker-election-in-its-history/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-01-04 8:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRDlQkb2ZI3.png?alt=media&token=b0da830a-d6ce-4228-ba9b-c8aa128630a4", "groupSlugs": ["118th-congress", "us-politics", "politics-default", "speaker-of-the-house-election"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Wednesday, January 4th (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.\n\nContext: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/\n\nIf the first ballot fails to provide a speaker, lawmakers will continue to vote until a candidate receives a\u00a0majority. Members can vote for different candidates each ballot.\u00a0\n\nIt's not common that there is more than one ballot, but it has happened.\n\nIn 1923, it took multiple ballots \u2013 nine \u2013 over the course of two months to elect a speaker. On three occasions prior to the Civil War, a speaker was not elected on the first ballot. In\u00a0one instance, it took 133 ballots over a period of two months.\u00a0\n\nFine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)\n\n\nClose date updated to 2023-01-04 8:59 pm"}, {"id": "EDo3lzNvg4zzfy0oIfZZ", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1695382348839, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695582000000, "question": "Will BA flight 442 from London to Amsterdam on 2023-09-24 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-c2448adb25de", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-ba-flight-442-from-london-to-a-c2448adb25de", "pool": {"NO": 2826.690274459112, "YES": 125.29414383710251}, "probability": 0.9865891527269387, "p": 0.7653058082759381, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3021.2147523823573, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695593291601, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695581955708, "lastBetTime": 1695581955569, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/ycakbdj3", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/ycakbdj3", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/ycakbdj3"}, {"id": "Fhn5IoGDdAd2i1O9BOkD", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706733536660, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706888100000, "question": "Will flight AF 1281 from London to Paris departing on 2024-02-02 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-1125c659f79d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1281-from-london-to-1125c659f79d", "pool": {"NO": 92.4187649918886, "YES": 303.07840479116356}, "probability": 0.04371297084058035, "p": 0.1303631443870037, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 218.88829558436072, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706961627046, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706961627383, "lastBetTime": 1706887718953, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-02 15:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 17:35 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 01:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1281?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1281", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2Fcd52911b0ac8.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1281 from London (LHR) to Paris (CDG), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-02 15:35 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 17:35 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:35 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a012:35 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a018:35 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 01:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "Xn1SNwyCIgnxKfGG7BWd", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1686336261173, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1692262125445, "question": "Will Donald Trump be indicted for a 3rd time by the end of December?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-a8bdc34de14d", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-donald-trump-be-indicted-for-a-a8bdc34de14d", "pool": {"NO": 2401.311937280962, "YES": 266.26913311986175}, "probability": 0.9874411461586421, "p": 0.8971016954421738, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3322.667143861314, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692262125445, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 19, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710456578950, "lastBetTime": 1691747942187, "lastCommentTime": 1691085165503, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/24/trump-georgia-fulton-county-grand-jury-summer/11731197002/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "C8wpFjJiay5FEzcQLxb6,9Pg68GZdzpM41X3GrHoO,wZAZstpUAAONBfm14DSH,aO3oHXm85nDU1Dc8eRe1,6itvdfC4EGkq0Elr9iZc,IpcOMmQp7rJ3vjkrVLBr,Xn1SNwyCIgnxKfGG7BWd"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FZTmUb--eUD.png?alt=media&token=55116fa0-81e2-47f3-ab3c-686c32a8b709", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "politics-default", "2024-us-presidential-election", "world-default", "donald-trump", "magaland", "law-order"], "textDescription": "Georgia prosecutor: Grand jury investigating Trump could decide charges this summer\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "UEtHscuiYR5wyUBmDhRr", "creatorId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "creatorUsername": "PunishedFurry", "creatorName": "Punished Furry", "createdTime": 1709284654672, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3go4lmW16N7oUihjjm8IiRRoMb5Dw2cMM1P1-g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709714590213, "question": "Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 452k subs in March 2024?", "slug": "will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-317f0f4d5225", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-317f0f4d5225", "pool": {"NO": 10320, "YES": 13.32311588527591}, "probability": 0.9991285980483519, "p": 0.59681145745616, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10120, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1709714590213, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "foOeshHZOET3yMvRTMPINpnb8Bj2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218357419, "lastBetTime": 1709714553750, "lastCommentTime": 1709714579047, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vaush has been losing subs since his nsfw loli folder leaked", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDMfQSnJOGo.png?alt=media&token=394d72ce-fa16-4f58-8e0a-92699bae6780", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will Vaush's youtube fall below 452k subs in March 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related Markets:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "4FMeUatNCWQEwt0tVnDD,FRePcpPiF50PXbYzfwb4,0UUAOKtqLwvXZXSyTTAC,lLjuRaYp7jW38ah0pt2Q,CEWJGYjob6rfvf7NUB6N"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/PunishedFurry%2F970a611c5eb9.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "celebrities"], "textDescription": "Vaush has been losing subs since his nsfw loli folder leaked\n\n[image]Will Vaush's youtube fall below 452k subs in March 2024?\n\nhttps://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_\n\nRelated Markets:\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "uqCZD2g8CFegtGDfkoMh", "creatorId": "XuMUlOX0CsNLXrirPX51rkt2dtJ2", "creatorUsername": "RJPerez", "creatorName": "RJ Perez", "createdTime": 1695242709387, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3Cti_GLdR5IHn98aJujYSK9Sx_6EJN_4Jc5K3L0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1695597752040, "question": "Will the Arizona Cardinals beat the Dallas Cowboys in their Week 3 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?", "slug": "will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-194d55ef9ee8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RJPerez/will-the-arizona-cardinals-beat-the-194d55ef9ee8", "pool": {"NO": 1595.2490844868216, "YES": 26.809259919360386}, "probability": 0.9904474163954526, "p": 0.6353660469652047, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5002.253825580745, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695597760313, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695597723000, "lastBetTime": 1695597722733, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Yes - Cardinals win", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "No - Cowboys win or tie", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "N/A - Game gets canceled", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "nfl", "dallas-cowboys", "arizona-cardinals"], "textDescription": "Yes - Cardinals win\n\nNo - Cowboys win or tie\n\nN/A - Game gets canceled"}, {"id": "94GdtAEgn3mPQ6vDrFEM", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1690831319392, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1704098501379, "question": "Will Twitter's logo continue to be an X for the whole of the rest of 2023?", "slug": "will-twitters-logo-continue-to-be-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-twitters-logo-continue-to-be-a", "pool": {"NO": 54171.20269083679, "YES": 195.6900847322031}, "probability": 0.9990854202568319, "p": 0.7978254448316381, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 57201.46064619215, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704098501379, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451909516, "lastBetTime": 1704098497850, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A week ago, Twitter changed their logo to be a black stylised X on a white background. There has been a sutble update to the look of this logo, but it is still an X.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At present, the market believes that there is a very high chance that this logo will stick around for a while - traders think there's more than a 90% chance that the logo will last until the end of August:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "QoMP3CQtRak0ugeidZ4D", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-twitters-logo-still-be-an-x-by-40f8f22ef21c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st December (the close time of this market)?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes;", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/home", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/home", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \"Twitter\" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"], "textDescription": "A week ago, Twitter changed their logo to be a black stylised X on a white background. There has been a sutble update to the look of this logo, but it is still an X.\n\nAt present, the market believes that there is a very high chance that this logo will stick around for a while - traders think there's more than a 90% chance that the logo will last until the end of August:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-twitters-logo-still-be-an-x-by-40f8f22ef21c \n\nWill this new X logo last until 21:00 BST on Thursday 31st December (the close time of this market)?\n\nResolution notes;\n\nI will be looking at the logo on the top left of the site when I view https://twitter.com/home while logged in. If there is no longer a logo in that particular part of the page, I will use my judgement to judge what counts as the site's logo.\n\nIf the logo is changed back to the blue bird or anything else which isn't an X, this market resolves NO, even if the change is temporary.\n\nIf the logo is changed to something else which is still an X, this will still resolve YES\n\nIf there is no logo on the site and it is impossible to determine what Twitter's logo is at the time that this market closes, I will resolve to N/A\n\nBy \"Twitter\" I mean the service that we currently know as Twitter. If the name of the service changes, that does not affect this market."}, {"id": "Zcy6dNWFOAPBtBO0tjxd", "creatorId": "KEFLudF2twcfdMVPs53eObhn5Gf2", "creatorUsername": "RaphaelArndt", "creatorName": "Raphael Arndt", "createdTime": 1686902631981, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcxtlwOr4rsH9fxD8WFDJTcT0NkUxZM_WyirZBg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1688162340000, "question": "Will Russia have made territorial gains in the war against Ukraine at 23:59 CET on 01 July 23 compared to now?", "slug": "will-russia-have-made-territorial-g", "url": "https://manifold.markets/RaphaelArndt/will-russia-have-made-territorial-g", "pool": {"NO": 224.4125334070479, "YES": 397.51982494751564}, "probability": 0.15951915131315839, "p": 0.25160859972091687, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 420.9974856027437, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1688291662253, "resolutionProbability": 0.16, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1688293484381, "lastBetTime": 1688161334711, "lastCommentTime": 1688293480975, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES if, according to URL: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://liveuamap.com/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liveuamap.com/en", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " an increase in territorial gains can be identified. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will close 24h prior.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Map base: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://liveuamap.com/en", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://liveuamap.com/en", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Disclaimer: I can't guarantee for the accuracy of the source above and will not be able to consider further sources. Will resolve N/A if I can't find out given the provided source, even if the result would actually be YES or NO.  ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "202da683-fb00-4485-94bf-dc3eae437e92", "url": "https://liveuamap.com/en", "image": "https://liveuamap.com/images/shr/000.png", "title": "Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather related s\u2026", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "Will resolve to YES if, according to URL: https://liveuamap.com/en an increase in territorial gains can be identified. \nThis market will close 24h prior.\n\nMap base: https://liveuamap.com/en\n\nDisclaimer: I can't guarantee for the accuracy of the source above and will not be able to consider further sources. Will resolve N/A if I can't find out given the provided source, even if the result would actually be YES or NO.  \n\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "eNHdZGgv7ETnXXUjbqZa", "creatorId": "5UEJDhfkuLNxnh3UKgg0rHesRCg2", "creatorUsername": "jks", "creatorName": "JKS", "createdTime": 1694991480059, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjks%2Fb22eNvFe2_.jpg?alt=media&token=b9898827-31b1-4e0a-b638-cbc4a0a8faa6", "closeTime": 1695511800000, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will BYU defeat Kansas?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-byu-defeat-kansas", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-byu-defeat-kansas", "pool": {"NO": 26.289174779343135, "YES": 7072.9317377689285}, "probability": 0.0011541092372624531, "p": 0.23714456986154056, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11160.322562607347, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695519949910, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695509441223, "lastBetTime": 1695509441075, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 2:30 PM CDT", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, Kansas", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Big 12 Week 4 games:", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["university-of-kansas", "big-12", "football", "sports-default", "brigham-young-university", "college-football"], "textDescription": "Kickoff: September 23, 2023 - 2:30 PM CDT\n\nDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, Kansas\n\nBig 12 Week 4 games:"}, {"id": "FCsjGzg87wSqR9dkMHkf", "creatorId": "ce1TD9S6UpPx3V4K2gU8wXEAzTi1", "creatorUsername": "bwr", "creatorName": "Ben Weinstein-Raun", "createdTime": 1697947907737, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu3DKMkv5eXqmHRWcr7kmLAX19GfGWd7McFtqYPY0g=s96-c", "closeTime": 1698548146545, "question": "Will GitHub have any incident on October 28, 2023?", "slug": "will-github-have-any-incident-on-oc-f85fbf348077", "url": "https://manifold.markets/bwr/will-github-have-any-incident-on-oc-f85fbf348077", "pool": {"NO": 107.4578795855803, "YES": 274.0206255592974}, "probability": 0.1421379758273082, "p": 0.2970175701420319, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 125, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698548146545, "resolutionProbability": 0.14, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698539803042, "lastBetTime": 1698539802874, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to YES, if ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.githubstatus.com/history", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.githubstatus.com/history", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " shows ANY incident on 2023-10-28 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will resolve to NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If an incident occurs before the end of the day I'll resolve the market as soon as I notice it.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "(I'm going to go through and create a bunch of these, since I keep hoping to trade on this question when ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23", "label": "MrLuke255"}}, {"text": "  hasn't created the market yet. I hope you don't mind, ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "pVEERkGIgXadfIVMVMt2DBjmBD23", "label": "MrLuke255"}}, {"text": " !)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "a62b3340-615a-4e41-9483-2202d6927a79", "url": "https://www.githubstatus.com/history", "image": "https://user-images.githubusercontent.com/19292210/60553863-044dd200-9cea-11e9-987e-7db84449f215.png", "title": "GitHub Status - Incident HistoryGitHub Octicon logoGitHub text logoGitHub TwitterGitHub FacebookGitHub YouTubeGitHub LinkedInGitHub.com", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "GitHub's Incident and Scheduled Maintenance History", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["githubdown", "github"], "textDescription": "Will resolve to YES, if https://www.githubstatus.com/history shows ANY incident on 2023-10-28 between 0:00 and 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nWill resolve to NO otherwise.\n\nIf an incident occurs before the end of the day I'll resolve the market as soon as I notice it.\n\n(I'm going to go through and create a bunch of these, since I keep hoping to trade on this question when @MrLuke255  hasn't created the market yet. I hope you don't mind, @MrLuke255 !)\n\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "f8yjcvK5KtpgrpeRpjXT", "creatorId": "GTQUpFr6t6f3w74ArLgHsyiQcPC2", "creatorUsername": "Rasmus1", "creatorName": "Rasmus \ud83c\udf55", "createdTime": 1683657384947, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FRasmus1%2Fh-RrSS9CAa.jpg?alt=media&token=69552ed1-5292-4153-bc56-5484f675fff7", "closeTime": 1684963628349, "question": "Will Destiny talk to Fanatiq before 2024?", "slug": "will-destiny-talk-to-fanatiq-before", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Rasmus1/will-destiny-talk-to-fanatiq-before", "pool": {"NO": 636.0989297077895, "YES": 120.49404858532503}, "probability": 0.8991084571944887, "p": 0.6279900740833182, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1616.541500239608, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1684963628349, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685005014284, "lastBetTime": 1684963391931, "lastCommentTime": 1685005011565, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Has to be either on stream or in a publically available video. Could be from a panel or an IRL-stream, as long as it's recorded and uploaded. References to talks they've had in private or screenshots of text messages do not count.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "Has to be either on stream or in a publically available video. Could be from a panel or an IRL-stream, as long as it's recorded and uploaded. References to talks they've had in private or screenshots of text messages do not count."}, {"id": "4wO87BKnQl1SJwrNrJ8X", "creatorId": "WEBvWg01hyONJrwEDcGvId9Uq0e2", "creatorUsername": "XComhghall", "creatorName": "XComhghall", "createdTime": 1675142997568, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBoyangMa%2FTHxCM3LLa1.png?alt=media&token=91f8a3e9-8e2c-4508-a4e9-0109dba72b4d", "closeTime": 1677659469887, "question": "Will S&P 500 increase more than Dow Jones in February 2023?", "slug": "will-sp-500-increase-more-than-dow", "url": "https://manifold.markets/XComhghall/will-sp-500-increase-more-than-dow", "pool": {"NO": 10702.646928275984, "YES": 0.8980079758777957}, "probability": 0.9999275461343429, "p": 0.536600760081575, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11668.517529174276, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1677659469887, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1677659467520, "lastBetTime": 1677659467340, "lastCommentTime": 1677659356936, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will the S&P 500 increase more or decrease less than the Dow Jones Industrial Average from open on 1 February 2023 to close on 28 February 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Increase is calculated per cent as 2 (p1 - p0) / (p1 + p0).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "S&P 500", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-02-01 open: 4070.07", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-02-28 close: 3970.15", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per cent change:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 (3970.15 - 4070.07) / (3970.15 + 4070.07) = \u22120.024855041", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DJIA", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-02-01 open: 34039.60", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-02-28 close: 32656.70", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Per cent change:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2 (32656.70 - 34039.60) / (32656.70 + 34039.60) = \u22120.041468567", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sources:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/DJIA/historical-prices", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/DJIA/historical-prices", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-15 8:00 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FdZKvbZxc9Q.png?alt=media&token=417814fd-925f-4585-85d1-13ca73e393b0", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks"], "textDescription": "Will the S&P 500 increase more or decrease less than the Dow Jones Industrial Average from open on 1 February 2023 to close on 28 February 2023?\n\nIncrease is calculated per cent as 2 (p1 - p0) / (p1 + p0).\n\nS&P 500\n\n2023-02-01 open: 4070.07\n\n2023-02-28 close: 3970.15\n\nPer cent change:\n\n2 (3970.15 - 4070.07) / (3970.15 + 4070.07) = \u22120.024855041\n\nDJIA\n\n2023-02-01 open: 34039.60\n\n2023-02-28 close: 32656.70\n\nPer cent change:\n\n2 (32656.70 - 34039.60) / (32656.70 + 34039.60) = \u22120.041468567\n\nSources:\n\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices\n\nhttps://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/DJIA/historical-prices\n\nClose date updated to 2023-03-15 8:00 pm"}, {"id": "0lzozLPwbMkyXk8afcJ3", "creatorId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "creatorUsername": "strutheo", "creatorName": "chris (strutheo)", "createdTime": 1709361790498, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fstrutheo%2FkMuR3ttqcY.png?alt=media&token=a90c9db0-678b-42d7-9a8a-874f55f21b3d", "closeTime": 1711030255563, "question": "Will the Reddit IPO share price be $31-34 as stated in their plans?", "slug": "will-the-reddit-ipo-share-price-be", "url": "https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-the-reddit-ipo-share-price-be", "pool": {"NO": 5464.33733562458, "YES": 53.45728072824181}, "probability": 0.9967084140246275, "p": 0.7476227402943117, "totalLiquidity": 220, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5255, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1711030255563, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "hDq0cvn68jbAUVd6aWIU9aSv9ZA2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1711030255563, "lastBetTime": 1711030247378, "lastCommentTime": 1710976123883, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Values that will resolve: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "31.XX - 34.XX", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "29.99, 30.99 or 35.00 will not count as YES", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Link: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "stocks", "internet", "tech-stocks", "reddit", "prices", "social-media", "ipo-valuation"], "textDescription": "Values that will resolve: \n\n31.XX - 34.XX\n\n29.99, 30.99 or 35.00 will not count as YES\n\nLink: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html"}, {"id": "cAtKt0glnkYU8zB4Zj5t", "creatorId": "Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2", "creatorUsername": "HarryHayfield", "creatorName": "Harry Hayfield", "createdTime": 1711381240496, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocKLO6vk94dAyRIB1WNPhDkrZK8ww8OiBc6b0ZnDQw48Zv4=s96-c", "closeTime": 1714604340000, "question": "Blackpool South by-election: Will the swing to Labour be greater or smaller than Wirral South in 1997?", "slug": "blackpool-south-byelection-will-the", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HarryHayfield/blackpool-south-byelection-will-the", "pool": {"NO": 325.6400367039625, "YES": 276.66686239855807}, "probability": 0.5804201832042496, "p": 0.5402924525607947, "totalLiquidity": 300, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 156, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1714720502183, "resolutionProbability": 0.58, "resolverId": "Jtr9In42trPCfEKKffz8Mu5cRpI2", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1714720555317, "lastBetTime": 1714602858063, "lastCommentTime": 1714720554418, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Wirral South by-election in February 1997 was the last by-election of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament and recorded a swing to Labour of 17.3%, the Blackpool South by-election caused by the resignation of Scott Benton following a recall petition being gathered, is likely to be the last by-election of this Parliament, therefore will the swing to Labour in Blackpool South be greater than 17.3% or smaller than 17.3%", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question will resolve as YES if the swing is greater than 17.3% and NO if the swing is lower", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": null, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "elections", "-2019-parliament-byelections", "uk-elections-20240502"], "textDescription": "The Wirral South by-election in February 1997 was the last by-election of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament and recorded a swing to Labour of 17.3%, the Blackpool South by-election caused by the resignation of Scott Benton following a recall petition being gathered, is likely to be the last by-election of this Parliament, therefore will the swing to Labour in Blackpool South be greater than 17.3% or smaller than 17.3%\n\nQuestion will resolve as YES if the swing is greater than 17.3% and NO if the swing is lower"}, {"id": "ey7wuaXf2qZmUUMVQB2J", "creatorId": "SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93", "creatorUsername": "Sailfish", "creatorName": "Sailfish", "createdTime": 1687631690727, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSailfish%2Ffb2NNt82PN.jpg?alt=media&token=b236197c-317e-4d5b-91db-5ada78e920f0", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Was Prigozhin's excursion to Moscow a plot/scheme/subterfuge/hoax et. al?", "slug": "was-prigozhins-excursion-to-moscow", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Sailfish/was-prigozhins-excursion-to-moscow", "pool": {"NO": 170.24576571022, "YES": 2276.823890248925}, "probability": 0.028202056185954415, "p": 0.27959742842613955, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6655.283755306017, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704119683018, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "SPIsEuortUNfKeTUeaE3vHLsAF93", "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704119683432, "lastBetTime": 1703902865818, "lastCommentTime": 1691854031628, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Was the Kremlin in on it?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "<-------- EDIT 12-08-23 --------> ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From now on I will probably add comment clarifications to the description even though I believe that clarification is primarily what comments are ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "for", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", people seem to not like it.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If there is material credible evidence (according to my judgement) that something other than a straightforward rebellion / revolt / insurrection / coup / mutiny / uprising / your favorite adjective here took place, I'll resolve it \"Yes\".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The spirit of the question is asking if things were as they seemed, or if it was production put on for the benefit of the viewers, and the major outcomes were pre-determined or at least agreed upon. For instance, if the agreement between Lukashenko and Prigozhin was in place ahead of time and there was never any intention for troops to enter Moscow, and this becomes known in some way I would resolve the market \"Yes\", notably this does not require any involvement from the Russian military. I would actually claim that is justifiable for this market to be trading substantially higher, since there is no need to figure out why the Russian armed forces would be okay with losing seven aircraft in the course of acting out some sort of farcical cover for troop repositioning or whatever.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As far as resolution, for now I feel comfortable placing the burden of proof on the hoax side, \"insurrection\" seems like a pretty good null hypothesis. If there is some level of low credibility evidence for it being a hoax, I will change my default resolution to N/A.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also, I might extend this market, I would guess that I would almost always do this rather than resolve the market N/A. Loans mean that the opportunity cost of leaving it open is fairly low, and I think the category of markets with what I'll call murky epistemics are useful as a reference for changes in sentiment. See for example, the \"Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?\" market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Status: So far, there seems to be no evidence of a hoax, the current resolution date is still in place.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["yevgeney-prigozhin", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Was the Kremlin in on it?\n\n<-------- EDIT 12-08-23 --------> \n\nFrom now on I will probably add comment clarifications to the description even though I believe that clarification is primarily what comments are for, people seem to not like it.\n\nIf there is material credible evidence (according to my judgement) that something other than a straightforward rebellion / revolt / insurrection / coup / mutiny / uprising / your favorite adjective here took place, I'll resolve it \"Yes\".\n\nThe spirit of the question is asking if things were as they seemed, or if it was production put on for the benefit of the viewers, and the major outcomes were pre-determined or at least agreed upon. For instance, if the agreement between Lukashenko and Prigozhin was in place ahead of time and there was never any intention for troops to enter Moscow, and this becomes known in some way I would resolve the market \"Yes\", notably this does not require any involvement from the Russian military. I would actually claim that is justifiable for this market to be trading substantially higher, since there is no need to figure out why the Russian armed forces would be okay with losing seven aircraft in the course of acting out some sort of farcical cover for troop repositioning or whatever.\n\nAs far as resolution, for now I feel comfortable placing the burden of proof on the hoax side, \"insurrection\" seems like a pretty good null hypothesis. If there is some level of low credibility evidence for it being a hoax, I will change my default resolution to N/A.\n\nAlso, I might extend this market, I would guess that I would almost always do this rather than resolve the market N/A. Loans mean that the opportunity cost of leaving it open is fairly low, and I think the category of markets with what I'll call murky epistemics are useful as a reference for changes in sentiment. See for example, the \"Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?\" market.\n\nStatus: So far, there seems to be no evidence of a hoax, the current resolution date is still in place."}, {"id": "1FaVLtVulwM2j3hKQpZn", "creatorId": "UT1vHSGiCbfZHIRpm6ZvYhFphws1", "creatorUsername": "JonathanRay", "creatorName": "Jonathan Ray", "createdTime": 1683295971993, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJonathanRay%2Fq5Z-eoxEVj.jpeg?alt=media&token=2c96f772-f110-434d-94e6-c893d48ec660", "closeTime": 1693153192137, "question": "Will there be any US major party presidential primary debates in 2023-2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-any-us-major-party-pr", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-there-be-any-us-major-party-pr", "pool": {"NO": 5305.217300906734, "YES": 258.7080472677451}, "probability": 0.9778847310357767, "p": 0.6831698556936677, "totalLiquidity": 690, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6028.722979260458, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1693153192137, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "uniqueBettorCount": 37, "lastUpdatedTime": 1693151486033, "lastBetTime": 1692696114016, "lastCommentTime": 1693151485669, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will there be Democratic or Republican primary debates for the 2023-2024 presidential campaign?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fw1Pj6cCtKH.png?alt=media&token=8c519a45-63cd-4458-be88-7d08f19880ab", "textDescription": "Will there be Democratic or Republican primary debates for the 2023-2024 presidential campaign?"}, {"id": "tRkY12fc3tnarezw0pjl", "creatorId": "QP8oaQ0uutUV5eCLA9nIojXWvYS2", "creatorUsername": "CE", "creatorName": "Charity Entrepreneurship", "createdTime": 1683911125062, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCE%2Fibp30-RuAJ.png?alt=media&token=d2a033a4-9b16-417f-8997-997715e0929a", "closeTime": 1685948340000, "question": "MEDIA8: Informing voters about political candidates\u2019 criminal pasts", "slug": "8-informing-voters-about-political", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CE/8-informing-voters-about-political", "pool": {"NO": 1386.9692602965627, "YES": 1612.4489808112592}, "probability": 0.1799999999999998, "p": 0.2033131420696252, "totalLiquidity": 1470, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4669.822454416593, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689007972867, "resolutionProbability": 0.18, "uniqueBettorCount": 49, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685978487825, "lastBetTime": 1685948115320, "lastCommentTime": 1685978485386, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F7l_a95QpST.png?alt=media&token=c66e285e-0edc-4716-9803-3f6720422f4b", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As part of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/ce-2023-top-ideas", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", will we select ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "\"Informing voters about political candidates\u2019 criminal pasts\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " as a top ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Mass Media", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " intervention?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Idea overview", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Many LMICs suffer from having a high proportion of politicians with corrupt and/or criminal histories. These candidates often get elected because voters may not be fully informed, or because they don\u2019t put enough weight on criminality when casting their vote. However, evidence suggests that electing such candidates leads to detrimental impacts down the line, including more corruption, less investment, and lower GDP growth. This organization would aim to reduce the vote shares for criminal politicians by sending text messages to voters in priority districts, informing them about which politicians are \u201ccriminal\u201d vs \u201cclean\u201d (based on public records).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Mass media interventions", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "By \u2018mass media\u2019 intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "About the contest", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "You can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For contest details and all markets, see the group ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "CE 2023 Top Ideas.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/ce-2023-top-ideas", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FaFRKQx1-dQ.png?alt=media&token=7563201f-12af-42aa-848c-1c682c671708", "groupSlugs": ["ce-2023-top-ideas", "us-politics"], "textDescription": "[image]As part of Charity Entrepreneurship's 2023 Top Ideas contest, will we select \"Informing voters about political candidates\u2019 criminal pasts\" as a top Mass Media intervention?\n\nIdea overview\n\nMany LMICs suffer from having a high proportion of politicians with corrupt and/or criminal histories. These candidates often get elected because voters may not be fully informed, or because they don\u2019t put enough weight on criminality when casting their vote. However, evidence suggests that electing such candidates leads to detrimental impacts down the line, including more corruption, less investment, and lower GDP growth. This organization would aim to reduce the vote shares for criminal politicians by sending text messages to voters in priority districts, informing them about which politicians are \u201ccriminal\u201d vs \u201cclean\u201d (based on public records).\n\nMass media interventions\n\nBy \u2018mass media\u2019 intervention we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being. We intend to select 2-4 ideas out of the 10 presented to recommend to entrepreneurs who enter our incubation program. This market resolves YES if this idea is chosen; NO otherwise.\n\nAbout the contest\n\nIn partnership with Charity Entrepreneurship, Manifold is sponsoring a $2000 forecasting tournament to inform which ideas end up selected\n\nYou can win part of a $1000 prize pool as a forecaster, for best predicting which interventions we choose.\n\nYou can win one of ten $100 prizes for posting an informative comment on Manifold that most influences our decision.\n\nFor contest details and all markets, see the group CE 2023 Top Ideas.\n\n"}, {"id": "tWzZoKAWzZGqhqu1yLiM", "creatorId": "IpTiwOTs96VIzeoxu66tfitUcBZ2", "creatorUsername": "Basilofsunshine", "creatorName": "Basil G", "createdTime": 1682367183849, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AEdFTp5e7cFzq1moc91CKqaAgyEleoNTjtEL9ke8emzV=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704085140000, "question": "Will Twitter's fact-checker, Birdwatch, still exist as-is for all users by the end of the year?", "slug": "will-twitters-factchecker-birdwatch", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Basilofsunshine/will-twitters-factchecker-birdwatch", "pool": {"NO": 406.00187828255235, "YES": 87.14492135606451}, "probability": 0.9250868293367476, "p": 0.7260697542291675, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 284, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704132487481, "resolutionProbability": 0.93, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704132487795, "lastBetTime": 1704039326526, "lastCommentTime": 1704132483876, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This resolves no if Elon, for example, removes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "a) functionality for advertisements", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "b) functionality for blue-checks ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "c) usage by non-blue-checks", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "d) Automatic opt-in to Birdwatch", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FD3aqZKg3zZ.png?alt=media&token=0df95cb0-4ae0-4f27-9237-a12333eeaa97", "groupSlugs": ["new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This resolves no if Elon, for example, removes:\n\na) functionality for advertisements\n\nb) functionality for blue-checks \n\nc) usage by non-blue-checks\n\nd) Automatic opt-in to Birdwatch"}, {"id": "gPg6dNpKqXmsXTEPz1Sm", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1705322899919, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1705959530644, "question": "Will any Republican candidate deny the result of the Iowa Republican presidential Caucus?", "slug": "will-any-republican-candidate-deny", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-any-republican-candidate-deny", "pool": {"NO": 144.89000216319744, "YES": 11772.674918792614}, "probability": 0.0031213591486942403, "p": 0.20281396906532317, "totalLiquidity": 430, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13906.601713108892, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705959530644, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710219651653, "lastBetTime": 1705956544788, "lastCommentTime": 1705959521054, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Donald Trump", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Ron DeSantis", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Nikki Haley", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Vivek Ramaswamy", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Asa Hutchinson", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. \"the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%\").", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "What doesn't count?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Procedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Complaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Anything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonGrayson%2F91ffa577f986.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["donald-trump", "magaland", "2024-republican-primaries", "2024-primaries", "nikki-haley", "vivek-ramaswamy", "ron-desantis", "iowa-caucuses", "asa-hutchinson"], "textDescription": "The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.\n\nOnce the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?\n\nDonald Trump\n\nRon DeSantis\n\nNikki Haley\n\nVivek Ramaswamy\n\nAsa Hutchinson\n\nThe caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:\n\nhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses\n\nIf any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. \"the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%\").\n\nWhat doesn't count?\n\nProcedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)\n\nComplaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes\n\nAnything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)\n\nThe claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO."}, {"id": "t8AeuJf5ytNIn6IV1c0O", "creatorId": "946iB1LqFIR06G7d8q89um57PHh2", "creatorUsername": "egroj", "creatorName": "JAAM", "createdTime": 1672775567426, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fjorge%2F6eta_wBPT5.png?alt=media&token=2d5f9149-6e77-4307-83f7-a770bebe9686", "closeTime": 1675227540000, "question": "Will Mpox (monkeypox) 7-day average cases drop below 15 during January?", "slug": "will-mpox-monkeypox-7day-average-ca-362d6729accc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/egroj/will-mpox-monkeypox-7day-average-ca-362d6729accc", "pool": {"NO": 34.44931055171191, "YES": 1767.0481493381967}, "probability": 0.008752956252500136, "p": 0.31174034619050484, "totalLiquidity": 130, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2394.3107193927217, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1675348831767, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1675348916685, "lastBetTime": 1675194490242, "lastCommentTime": 1675348913519, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 15 for any day in January 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Bidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for January 31st.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FiKs7QwztnZ.png?alt=media&token=365f1849-d54c-4029-9358-246a889ef4d3", "groupSlugs": ["monkeypox"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if the reported 7-day rolling average confirmed cases of Mpox (monkeypox) worldwide is less than 15 for any day in January 2023, as reported by Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox\n\nBidding closes at the end of the month, but I will resolve as soon as there is data for January 31st."}, {"id": "uVZKX55kxKkyJs4nKiES", "creatorId": "GRMclUCmBzdmu1RuBbK3Ysi5Oya2", "creatorUsername": "Riggin", "creatorName": "Riggin", "createdTime": 1694540835287, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcO9i5RQxyKNn_ANS9pAv9Ed-MSJodH1xiuWookKgEFn2t_=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694957062849, "question": "2023 NCAAF: Will Colorado beat Colorado State?", "slug": "2023-ncaaf-will-colorado-beat-color", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Riggin/2023-ncaaf-will-colorado-beat-color", "pool": {"NO": 9637.464185018218, "YES": 99.5781345338023}, "probability": 0.9980265214971077, "p": 0.8393650661228172, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 12945.06254084918, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694957062849, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694954756691, "lastBetTime": 1694954756557, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["big-12", "mountain-west-conference", "pac12", "college-football"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "mgcxOLoejc3MJ593iZjt", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1677843788520, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1678671311997, "question": "Will James Friend win the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on 'All Quiet on the Western Front'?", "slug": "will-james-friend-win-the-oscar-for", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-james-friend-win-the-oscar-for", "pool": {"NO": 10076.518869183557, "YES": 27.05681362809446}, "probability": 0.9987072563887784, "p": 0.674732992809736, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10079.729133257013, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678671311997, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1678671304028, "lastBetTime": 1678671303751, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If James Friend wins the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on 'All Quiet on the Western Front' at the 95th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FigCVsDLyRY.png?alt=media&token=0d023b85-bc18-4f0f-8d86-7002061f3c36", "groupSlugs": ["oscars-2023"], "textDescription": "If James Friend wins the Oscar for Best Cinematography for his work on 'All Quiet on the Western Front' at the 95th Academy Awards, this market will resolve to YES. "}, {"id": "LOWwGqyNIQwjn2f1SQv5", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1657480266576, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1666739731264, "question": "Will Twitter and Elon Musk settle a lawsuit over the deal to purchase Twitter?", "slug": "will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a", "pool": {"NO": 696.5850098442726, "YES": 108.01389277647137}, "probability": 0.9101777222270993, "p": 0.6110853838195054, "totalLiquidity": 240, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2013.730060391623, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1667787379274, "resolutionProbability": 0.9101777222270993, "uniqueBettorCount": 22, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710451917290, "lastBetTime": 1666734394596, "lastCommentTime": 1667787353498, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon Musk said he is seeking to terminate the deal, Twitter's board says they will sue to enforce the deal. ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1545533987724075010", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1545533987724075010", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "  ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if a lawsuit between Twitter and Elon Musk about the acquisition deal is settled out of court by end of 2023 and resolves the status of the acquisition deal (e.g. to close or cancel the deal), as reported by reliable news publications. Resolves NO otherwise, e.g. if the status of the acquisition deal is resolved by court order, or if the deal closes without any lawsuits being a decisive factor. Only legal action that is reported to resolve the status of the deal will count for this; some side legal agreement or order that is related but doesn't resolve it will not count.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Sep 14, 11:48pm: Resolves NO if Delaware Chancery Court issues a ruling that resolves the lawsuit, even if it is appealed.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2022-10-25 7:15 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e"], "textDescription": "Elon Musk said he is seeking to terminate the deal, Twitter's board says they will sue to enforce the deal. https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1545533987724075010  \n\nResolves YES if a lawsuit between Twitter and Elon Musk about the acquisition deal is settled out of court by end of 2023 and resolves the status of the acquisition deal (e.g. to close or cancel the deal), as reported by reliable news publications. Resolves NO otherwise, e.g. if the status of the acquisition deal is resolved by court order, or if the deal closes without any lawsuits being a decisive factor. Only legal action that is reported to resolve the status of the deal will count for this; some side legal agreement or order that is related but doesn't resolve it will not count.\n\nSep 14, 11:48pm: Resolves NO if Delaware Chancery Court issues a ruling that resolves the lawsuit, even if it is appealed.\n\n\nClose date updated to 2022-10-25 7:15 pm"}, {"id": "6XNWhzBEtebRlEBzRAek", "creatorId": "nbI9r6hdKiT4j2qdWGK63g4UNsm1", "creatorUsername": "Mqrius", "creatorName": "Mqrius", "createdTime": 1679831813816, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMqrius%2FN1f02TgdV9.jpg?alt=media&token=6ff44426-986e-4317-baf0-8c35c7e89dda", "closeTime": 1681595940000, "question": "Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur before April 16?", "slug": "will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte", "pool": {"NO": 327.74818804749077, "YES": 11556.756215903191}, "probability": 0.007722464861310344, "p": 0.215330366782006, "totalLiquidity": 850, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 21780.56765229702, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1681599035881, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 43, "lastUpdatedTime": 1681599018449, "lastBetTime": 1681595608715, "lastCommentTime": 1681599015178, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A duplicate of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this market", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Multicore/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", with a different date.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled \"Starship Orbital Flight Test\", \"Starship Orbital Launch\", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "6XNWhzBEtebRlEBzRAek", "label": "/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "YGD75pEOz75IQy5MsCka", "label": "/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-583a5ac08305"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "IlQNeknvTtDbMRzDhV1H", "label": "/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-b31d369afae1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "caSQsMXrffdPCsTehf4V", "label": "/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-22cb61e371bb"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "DdGwBEcla89n51wdFiB4", "label": "/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-723cf472c5c1"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "jbRuvzPiqG3QXnBQ1XAV", "label": "/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u200c ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F85KvW8RAen.png?alt=media&token=8b837c91-b51b-4fdb-ad04-3a48c17fdebf", "groupSlugs": ["spacex", "space"], "textDescription": "A duplicate of this market, with a different date.\n\nFor the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.\n\nI'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled \"Starship Orbital Flight Test\", \"Starship Orbital Launch\", or similar, which shows a live feed of Starship and a countdown, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte \n\n@/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-583a5ac08305 \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-b31d369afae1 \n\n@/BoltonBailey/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-test-22cb61e371bb \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-723cf472c5c1 \n\n@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-883c2b0587e9 \n\n\u200c "}, {"id": "xYaqf5nYiDUtZBom7j15", "creatorId": "St3vtMdJQMYTxAqhvGglvJL3S2D2", "creatorUsername": "DismalScientist", "creatorName": "DismalScientist", "createdTime": 1675626619381, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FDismalScientist%2F_trI0_uAPH.png?alt=media&token=35fa7626-92cc-4b8b-8b16-0ce5136b681e", "closeTime": 1699383540000, "question": "Will a Democrat win the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election?", "slug": "will-a-democrat-win-the-2023-kentuc-4ddeabe5c160", "url": "https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-a-democrat-win-the-2023-kentuc-4ddeabe5c160", "pool": {"NO": 952.9416356049726, "YES": 744.9230385144707}, "probability": 0.8033531689136467, "p": 0.7615347658722189, "totalLiquidity": 820, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9958.065377924915, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699427995079, "resolutionProbability": 0.8, "uniqueBettorCount": 52, "lastUpdatedTime": 1699383200812, "lastBetTime": 1699383200684, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Incumbent governor Andy Beshears (Democrat) is running. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fs4ELbg31QX.png?alt=media&token=235b4b33-599e-4e6c-843c-f96a587855d0", "groupSlugs": ["2023-us-elections"], "textDescription": "Incumbent governor Andy Beshears (Democrat) is running. "}, {"id": "BrNCnEkBKx5Z6VSKNnwf", "creatorId": "M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2", "creatorUsername": "NivlacM", "creatorName": "NivlacM", "createdTime": 1702414818778, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu0e4Y--wpuxNpBGKB54wHqZQP2tJVKVLsuCx8sWIg=s96-c", "closeTime": 1705958556988, "question": "Did kenshin9000 \"beat all chess engines\" (with or without GPT-4)?", "slug": "did-kenshin9000-beat-all-chess-engi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/NivlacM/did-kenshin9000-beat-all-chess-engi", "pool": {"NO": 334.861894689867, "YES": 2075.767030572486}, "probability": 0.01811206560500331, "p": 0.10261222137865773, "totalLiquidity": 427.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3950.6459659728903, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705958556988, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "M66y7AVxEcMLlyXSUBYoFTmGMjR2", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705958636076, "lastBetTime": 1705418909145, "lastCommentTime": 1705958634317, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Tweet embed:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1734238211088506967"}}, {"type": "codeBlock", "attrs": {"language": null}, "content": [{"text": "3. Approximately 10 days later, I will release a full chess engine based on GPT4, whose code/prompts anyone will be able to inspect and run against any other chess engine. GPT4's \"performant output\" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A more permissive version of:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/did-kenshin9000-on-twitter-beat-all", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO if there's consensus.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If it's ambiguous, the resolution will be \"Does Kenshin's code win a game against Stockfish?\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he never releases code or he releases code that isn't a functioning chess engine, resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If he releases his code and a moderator sees this market, please close it for trading.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The system does not need to use GPT-4 in any way. It may use GPT-4 though. I will resolve YES if it beats stock Stockfish.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if no code is released before the end date Jan 16th", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/NivlacM%2F272fb5601d21.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["ai", "gpt4-speculation", "chess"], "textDescription": "Tweet embed:\n\n[tweet]3. Approximately 10 days later, I will release a full chess engine based on GPT4, whose code/prompts anyone will be able to inspect and run against any other chess engine. GPT4's \"performant output\" will beat every other chess engine in existence in a tournament of any size.\n\nA more permissive version of:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mira/did-kenshin9000-on-twitter-beat-all)Resolves YES or NO if there's consensus.\n\nIf it's ambiguous, the resolution will be \"Does Kenshin's code win a game against Stockfish?\"\n\nIf he never releases code or he releases code that isn't a functioning chess engine, resolves NO.\n\nIf he releases his code and a moderator sees this market, please close it for trading.\n\nThe system does not need to use GPT-4 in any way. It may use GPT-4 though. I will resolve YES if it beats stock Stockfish.\n\nResolves NO if no code is released before the end date Jan 16th"}, {"id": "1HrufTroWnfeFyWs9YKR", "creatorId": "bn1JMobLIzYubw3PjmockmVU5n73", "creatorUsername": "Klayman", "creatorName": "Klayman", "createdTime": 1691119881405, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtd6FiTbfSy9AamLZjBYTvI8CSfkIwmSmnp3SWPikRIj17U=s96-c", "closeTime": 1691683055928, "question": "Will the next issue of journal \"Nature\" have an article on zoology?", "slug": "will-the-next-issue-of-journal-natu-251fea5d6ed4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Klayman/will-the-next-issue-of-journal-natu-251fea5d6ed4", "pool": {"NO": 83.75696062093908, "YES": 164.40400747731405}, "probability": 0.19726458410052583, "p": 0.32539847138999456, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 81.35987847348659, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1691683080429, "resolutionProbability": 0.2, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691678974966, "lastBetTime": 1691678974848, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to \"YES\" if 2023-Aug-10 issue of the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "journal \"Nature\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " has at least one research article that has \"", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Zoology", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/subjects/zoology", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "\" in its list of \"Subjects\" (\"Article info\" tab on Nature website (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "example", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06171-9#article-info", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "). Otherwise resolves to \"NO\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Journal sections like \"News & Views\", \"Perspectives\", etc -- will not be considered for resolving this market. Only the \"Articles\" section will be taken into account.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This is only about the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "journal \"Nature\"", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nature.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". All other journals in the Nature family (e.g. \"Nature Ecology and Evolution\") are irrelevant to this market.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["technology-default", "biology", "zoology", "science-default"], "textDescription": "Resolves to \"YES\" if 2023-Aug-10 issue of the journal \"Nature\" has at least one research article that has \"Zoology\" in its list of \"Subjects\" (\"Article info\" tab on Nature website (example). Otherwise resolves to \"NO\".\n\n\nJournal sections like \"News & Views\", \"Perspectives\", etc -- will not be considered for resolving this market. Only the \"Articles\" section will be taken into account.\n\n\nThis is only about the journal \"Nature\". All other journals in the Nature family (e.g. \"Nature Ecology and Evolution\") are irrelevant to this market."}, {"id": "M4QQZGBqPoiliJNKfqTn", "creatorId": "gFPP5Z6rRPdPLcwZmqt5c1tTo6Q2", "creatorUsername": "saulmunn", "creatorName": "Saul Munn", "createdTime": 1689711647062, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZUXokPymgD5tR3Rv4gtxGuihIIsF3UOHG4nlIEyQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1690934336738, "question": "Will Trump be indicted for crimes related to January 6 in 2023?", "slug": "will-trump-be-indicted-for-crimes-r-6a0485624be2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/saulmunn/will-trump-be-indicted-for-crimes-r-6a0485624be2", "pool": {"NO": 1893.8480052489429, "YES": 171.80107851448662}, "probability": 0.9883601240636541, "p": 0.8850942198474444, "totalLiquidity": 310, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2861.7044758616757, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690934336738, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690932905944, "lastBetTime": 1690932905651, "lastCommentTime": 1690927992618, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "from the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "reuters article", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/what-are-trumps-chances-being-indicted-january-6-2023-07-18/?taid=64b6e4bd9f67e300011aefe5&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", subsequent ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "tweet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1681382220101976079", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", and ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "label": "BTE"}}, {"text": " 's various markets about this (none of which end this year; either in july, august, september, or october)", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics"], "textDescription": "from the reuters article, subsequent tweet, and @BTE 's various markets about this (none of which end this year; either in july, august, september, or october)"}, {"id": "77oNXzT6fy8qVXKfWEnl", "creatorId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "creatorUsername": "FranklinBaldo", "creatorName": "Franklin Baldo", "createdTime": 1701237298983, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucry6frpI5BKtmRvdVqmUQnkFdfnFn-LeH3bdV64feY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1703358401212, "question": "Will the bipartisan press conference led by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna reveal specific new information about UAPs?", "slug": "will-the-bipartisan-press-conferenc", "url": "https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/will-the-bipartisan-press-conferenc", "pool": {"NO": 49.23190228650272, "YES": 300.2466329677967}, "probability": 0.08000000000000006, "p": 0.3465396485141867, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 242.9891243066184, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1703358401212, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "resolverId": "EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703358393205, "lastBetTime": 1703356835896, "lastCommentTime": 1703358392510, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will predict whether the upcoming bipartisan press conference, involving Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and other congress members, will disclose specific new information regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). For the market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the revelation must be explicitly about UAPs and should be a specific piece of information that has not been previously public. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution Criteria:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " The market will be resolved based on the content of the press conference as reported by credible news outlets. If specific, previously unknown details about UAPs are disclosed, the market will resolve as \"Yes.\" Otherwise, it will resolve as \"No.\"", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1729694609255645551"}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["aliens", "unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-ua", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This market will predict whether the upcoming bipartisan press conference, involving Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and other congress members, will disclose specific new information regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). For the market to resolve to \"Yes,\" the revelation must be explicitly about UAPs and should be a specific piece of information that has not been previously public. \n\nResolution Criteria: The market will be resolved based on the content of the press conference as reported by credible news outlets. If specific, previously unknown details about UAPs are disclosed, the market will resolve as \"Yes.\" Otherwise, it will resolve as \"No.\"\n\n[tweet]"}, {"id": "mcgYuXnSelKwZMIuBtwl", "creatorId": "7HhTMy4xECaVKvl5MmEAfVUkRCS2", "creatorUsername": "KevinBurke", "creatorName": "Kevin Burke", "createdTime": 1688334182361, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKevinBurke%2FXxsksNH0Uv.jpeg?alt=media&token=e0e8f14c-dbc8-49ca-b943-2649cecf3291", "closeTime": 1690727948627, "question": "Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the 2023 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?", "slug": "will-sergio-perez-finish-on-the-pod-018d3e8f4516", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/will-sergio-perez-finish-on-the-pod-018d3e8f4516", "pool": {"NO": 13471.080810771018, "YES": 21.695585441066214}, "probability": 0.9991789406712585, "p": 0.662152680808542, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 13545.90497501231, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690727948627, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690727944341, "lastBetTime": 1690727944217, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 30, 2023.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["formula-1"], "textDescription": "A podium finish is any place in the top 3 positions. The race will take place on July 30, 2023."}, {"id": "KtUhN0qrDy4mATuHawxe", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1694299116569, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1694311500000, "question": "Will U2 flight 5010 from Chania to Berlin on 2023-09-10 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-u2-flight-5010-from-chania-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-u2-flight-5010-from-chania-to", "pool": {"NO": 89.43371629666026, "YES": 32.175048376915264}, "probability": 0.5700000000000004, "p": 0.3229045810976209, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20.4181156483274, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1694363591663, "resolutionProbability": 0.57, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694300431592, "lastBetTime": 1694300431300, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/56yhvras", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/56yhvras", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/56yhvras"}, {"id": "jLQaB3O6BGkCahl6F3hG", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700524603424, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700607600000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on November 21 than it closed on November 20?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-2-5f6ba5d85adb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-november-2-5f6ba5d85adb", "pool": {"NO": 83.6268139157056, "YES": 1255.503895314439}, "probability": 0.030932869211746938, "p": 0.3239700144383053, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1388.2546382176085, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700612220176, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700612217178, "lastBetTime": 1700604488633, "lastCommentTime": 1700612216504, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.6127", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "hawsbollah", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.6127\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "9mFM1IASRswPnpXTgicr", "creatorId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "creatorUsername": "SneakySly", "creatorName": "SneakySly", "createdTime": 1689910402663, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSneakySly%2Fsneckogif.gif?alt=media&token=6b1bd899-10b3-46f0-ac38-c3282ed5d66e", "closeTime": 1702500551439, "question": "Will Seattle's rents increase in 2023?", "slug": "will-seattles-rents-increase-in-202", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SneakySly/will-seattles-rents-increase-in-202", "pool": {"NO": 6.3366433756573315, "YES": 7116.798354602622}, "probability": 0.0011918279607860062, "p": 0.5726789188685485, "totalLiquidity": 390, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8613.516651914504, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1702500551439, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "YOILpFNyg0gGj79zBIBUpJigHQ83", "uniqueBettorCount": 21, "lastUpdatedTime": 1702500529764, "lastBetTime": 1702500529610, "lastCommentTime": 1702500493996, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve based on data from:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/seattle-wa/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/seattle-wa/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Specifically, will median rents in Dec 2023 be higher than in Dec 2022", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "As of the posting of this market, Dec 2022 median rents were listed as follows:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8KP1SEqafD.png?alt=media&token=a2a491e0-0695-42c7-9e42-8dfcd4bf34cb", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Inspired by a ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "mention", "attrs": {"id": "80TB38IqEfYMoqQzK032jcLvB4E2", "label": "RexSalisbury"}}, {"text": " market. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "seattle", "yimby"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve based on data from:\nhttps://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/seattle-wa/\n\nSpecifically, will median rents in Dec 2023 be higher than in Dec 2022\n\nAs of the posting of this market, Dec 2022 median rents were listed as follows:\n\n[image]Inspired by a @RexSalisbury market. "}, {"id": "SLsEOUn1mFah8OcKJI6J", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1664750017668, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1666216740000, "question": "Will UK inflation be 8.9% or more in September 2022?", "slug": "will-uk-inflation-be-89-or-more-in", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-uk-inflation-be-89-or-more-in", "pool": {"NO": 105.70226803129395, "YES": 2504.9250681411154}, "probability": 0.01790589895262553, "p": 0.3017097951540079, "totalLiquidity": 525, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 5328.71477713055, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1666279400498, "resolutionProbability": 0.01790589895262553, "uniqueBettorCount": 28, "lastUpdatedTime": 1666216690569, "lastBetTime": 1666216690366, "lastCommentTime": 1666189173408, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a market on UK inflation over the 12 month period ending September 2022 as measured by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CIPH), from September 2021 to September 2022. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This market will resolve to \"YES\" if the CIPH is 8.9% or more in September 2022. ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"NO\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "--------------", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The resolution source for this market is the figure provided by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), found at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The specific data point used will be titled \"SEP 2022\", which is found on the graph titled \"CPIH ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100\", and on the table view for the row with period \"SEP 2022\". ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The release of the September 2022's CIPH is scheduled for October 19, 2022.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics", "polymarket", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "This is a market on UK inflation over the 12 month period ending September 2022 as measured by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CIPH), from September 2021 to September 2022. \n\nThis market will resolve to \"YES\" if the CIPH is 8.9% or more in September 2022. \n\nOtherwise, this market will resolve to \"NO\". \n\n\n--------------\nThe resolution source for this market is the figure provided by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), found at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/l55o/mm23. \n\nThe specific data point used will be titled \"SEP 2022\", which is found on the graph titled \"CPIH ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100\", and on the table view for the row with period \"SEP 2022\". \n\nThe release of the September 2022's CIPH is scheduled for October 19, 2022.\n\n"}, {"id": "ttMMCVoyEPkcVDVgCTF3", "creatorId": "IPrh4nP5IHO7LwoIax2CkZrKfr13", "creatorUsername": "Luca3f84", "creatorName": "Luca", "createdTime": 1692321148825, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTtcLMDk7YZW-4LTxUyJfh32j97BCJw3rmunxeuzmh4Yy=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704020340000, "question": "Will Sam Altman have a significant PR blunder before the beginning of 2024?", "slug": "will-sam-altman-have-a-significant", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Luca3f84/will-sam-altman-have-a-significant", "pool": {"NO": 637.970810709709, "YES": 16448.23688607319}, "probability": 0.029936257370125147, "p": 0.44309502405501583, "totalLiquidity": 3200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 108604.21277160874, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704434885559, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "IPrh4nP5IHO7LwoIax2CkZrKfr13", "uniqueBettorCount": 358, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704434886416, "lastBetTime": 1703890976522, "lastCommentTime": 1704431532163, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will resolve as YES iff a single instance of Sam's actions result in negative media attention from multiple large news organisations across the political isle before the 1st of January 2024, and NO otherwise", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["tech-celeb-gossip", "sam-altman", "ai", "openai", "openai-crisis", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This will resolve as YES iff a single instance of Sam's actions result in negative media attention from multiple large news organisations across the political isle before the 1st of January 2024, and NO otherwise"}, {"id": "P7DEBDVy8RRFWW8DxBKf", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1697134057863, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1698960823750, "question": "Will Egypt open its border for Palestinian refugees by Nov15?", "slug": "will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-652687f0c43c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-egypt-open-its-border-for-pale-652687f0c43c", "pool": {"NO": 2572.8667339015647, "YES": 565.3671992799233}, "probability": 0.86, "p": 0.5744399206689584, "totalLiquidity": 1220, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 18732.502285203987, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699118973048, "resolutionProbability": 0.86, "uniqueBettorCount": 105, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710206886884, "lastBetTime": 1698960751046, "lastCommentTime": 1698972702357, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The \"Yes\" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israelhamas-conflict-2023", "israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "palestine"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Egypt opens its border with Gaza for Palestinian refugees by November 15, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe \"Yes\" criterion include the opening of the Rafah border crossing for refugees, the creation of a humanitarian corridor, or any other mechanism which intends to allow the passage of Palestinian refugees directly into Egypt.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Egyptian government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."}, {"id": "Sm8G8LrTNmX8EHDyKD72", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1705510787498, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1705708800000, "question": "($250M Subsidy) Will the Detroit Red Wings beat Carolina Hurricanes on Jan 19? (Prediction Market)", "slug": "250m-subsidy-will-the-detroit-red-w", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/250m-subsidy-will-the-detroit-red-w", "pool": {"NO": 295.06172262443766, "YES": 640.4376025469777}, "probability": 0.3499999999999999, "p": 0.538903190284841, "totalLiquidity": 460.5, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 349.30507567436945, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1705727063589, "resolutionProbability": 0.35, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 11, "lastUpdatedTime": 1705727063798, "lastBetTime": 1705705407367, "lastCommentTime": 1705727051935, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Detroit Red Wings vs Carolina Hurricanes @6pm CST", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=red+wings+vs+hurricanes", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game start at 6:00pm CST.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at 6:00pm CST ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves Yes if Detroit Red Wings win.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FLMFYvVftfQ.png?alt=media&token=fe11763b-bf08-4698-897d-1b06d4dac08d", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenWatts%2F04896665c9b3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["nhl", "hockey", "sports-default", "detroit-red-wings", "carolina-hurricanes", "ice-hockey", "yuna-league-beta"], "textDescription": "This is a predictive sports market. That means you can NOT bet during the game. Lock your bets in by 6:00pm CST and sit back.\n\n \n\nDetroit Red Wings vs Carolina Hurricanes @6pm CST\n\nGame start at 6:00pm CST.\n\nThis market closes at 6:00pm CST \n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nResolves Yes if Detroit Red Wings win.\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.\n\n[image]"}, {"id": "SyuXGvNoPXexiU5UXKpO", "creatorId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "creatorUsername": "KeenenW", "creatorName": "Keenen W", "createdTime": 1715446886346, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FKeenenW%2FBkBFf9Az_x.png?alt=media&token=494d8d5f-a711-40ae-9a82-90bc3d0d0fbb", "closeTime": 1715553000000, "question": "(Game 4) Will Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers on May 12 (NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs)", "slug": "game-4-will-boston-bruins-beat-flor", "url": "https://manifold.markets/KeenenW/game-4-will-boston-bruins-beat-flor", "pool": {"NO": 810.1715360621334, "YES": 1257.3216009834691}, "probability": 0.37179347593221707, "p": 0.4787534472275088, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 712.6718215410698, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1715563392150, "resolutionProbability": 0.37, "resolverId": "X1xu1kvOxuevx09xuR2urWfzf7i1", "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1715553000000, "lastBetTime": 1715543876699, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Florida Panthers are leading the series ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "2-1", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Boston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Bruins+vs+Panthers#sie=m;/g/11y48mnpv1;7;/m/05gwr;dt;fp;1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Game starts 5:30pm CST", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market closes at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "5:30pm CST on May 12", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "YES or NO .", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/KeenenW/d192fe061ba3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["sports-betting", "sports-default", "culture-default", "nhl", "hockey"], "textDescription": "Florida Panthers are leading the series 2-1\n\nBoston Bruins vs Florida Panthers on May 12\n\nGame starts 5:30pm CST\n\nThis market closes at 5:30pm CST on May 12\n\nResolves YES or NO .\n\nHockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death"}, {"id": "WzCM8USHJUlNbcHtJha2", "creatorId": "w29JuzBYXLM9t89V7IzuSl5Ay9p2", "creatorUsername": "derikk", "creatorName": "Derik K", "createdTime": 1682945322280, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GjMMD3hpowUw0WGPs_qJTqQyB5X_6EEY691J3ABqA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1682948008862, "question": "Will Jonas Clarke Middle School win the 2023 National Science Bowl middle school finals?", "slug": "will-jonas-clarke-middle-school-win-b6f07eb5af78", "url": "https://manifold.markets/derikk/will-jonas-clarke-middle-school-win-b6f07eb5af78", "pool": {"NO": 10.136431147588887, "YES": 285.80228604350623}, "probability": 0.030609848852042033, "p": 0.4709873614636789, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 274, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1682948713893, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1682947925930, "lastBetTime": 1682947925826, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves to YES if Jonas Clarke Middle School is reported as the winner of the 2023 middle school NSB finals by the official NSB ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Twitter account", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/DOE_SC_NSB", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "website", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://science.osti.gov/wdts/nsb/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". Resolves to NO if BASIS Bellevue is the winner. Clarke is coming in to the finals with 1 loss, while BASIS is undefeated. The final round(s) can be streamed at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://vimeo.com/event/3328156", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://vimeo.com/event/3328156", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " starting at 9:00 AM EDT on Monday, May 1.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2Fobd79T8Ux1.png?alt=media&token=90d9794d-6179-4f6f-a01b-66a2f8f8f19d", "groupSlugs": ["science-bowl"], "textDescription": "Resolves to YES if Jonas Clarke Middle School is reported as the winner of the 2023 middle school NSB finals by the official NSB Twitter account and website. Resolves to NO if BASIS Bellevue is the winner. Clarke is coming in to the finals with 1 loss, while BASIS is undefeated. The final round(s) can be streamed at https://vimeo.com/event/3328156 starting at 9:00 AM EDT on Monday, May 1."}, {"id": "0AYdJAt7329mk46tZT0o", "creatorId": "qnIAzz9RamaodeiJSiGZO6xRGC63", "creatorUsername": "Agh", "creatorName": "Agh", "createdTime": 1695500729168, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FAghgg2%2FIjSFdFdbHO.jpg?alt=media&token=7fcbf9aa-3d8e-4b3a-896a-92c3aadf6a66", "closeTime": 1697407140000, "question": "By October 15th will The Majority Report have pledged to join/support destiny's canvassing efforts?", "slug": "by-october-15th-will-the-majority-r", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Agh/by-october-15th-will-the-majority-r", "pool": {"NO": 192.77594130548516, "YES": 12751.86834748903}, "probability": 0.010054182983499648, "p": 0.4018513739522156, "totalLiquidity": 1235, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 17001.902305266158, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697439223145, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 65, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697398547384, "lastBetTime": 1697398547084, "lastCommentTime": 1696881375355, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If The Majority Report makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolve Yes.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For the resolution of this market it won't matter if destiny accepts the offer or not.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Similarly if destiny doesn't ask them for help, then this market still resolves solely based on The Majority Report's actions.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If a serious offer is made but later rescinded this still resolves Yes.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "(https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Kw8bTwUTwg?t=1375)Context: Destiny talked about trying to convince Vaush or the Majority Report to join his canvassing efforts for the upcoming election.\n\nIf The Majority Report makes a serious offer to help Destiny's canvassing in a meaningful, concrete way, then this market will resolve Yes.\n\nFor the resolution of this market it won't matter if destiny accepts the offer or not.\n\nSimilarly if destiny doesn't ask them for help, then this market still resolves solely based on The Majority Report's actions.\n\nIf a serious offer is made but later rescinded this still resolves Yes."}, {"id": "Y2l6IsS8Qnl7PMQy8zSj", "creatorId": "xPEZQYvILhM1WCuzGJUj7c27Ebi1", "creatorUsername": "SxP", "creatorName": "SxP", "createdTime": 1710227162284, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AGNmyxZzFvzcXXicfZ8fLWQCacFQX4Yl_Cc6OO3ZJWVqPw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1717103335781, "question": "Was Kate Middleton's Mother's Day photo heavily forged and not just lightly edited as claimed by the official story?", "slug": "was-kate-middletons-mothers-day-pho", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SxP/was-kate-middletons-mothers-day-pho", "pool": {"NO": 1146.5494952316121, "YES": 845.5738512978604}, "probability": 0.5566388228157988, "p": 0.4807682672513353, "totalLiquidity": 1000, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2103.834749553889, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1717103335781, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "resolverId": "xPEZQYvILhM1WCuzGJUj7c27Ebi1", "uniqueBettorCount": 38, "lastUpdatedTime": 1717103696116, "lastBetTime": 1716942974564, "lastCommentTime": 1717103685836, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kate Middleton released a photo on Mother's day of her family", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1766750995445387393"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "She claimed (via the Twitter account) that the photo was lightly edited.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1767135566645092616"}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The more drastic theories say that the photo heavily forged.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "tiptapTweet", "attrs": {"tweetId": "t1767154095238897954"}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve to YES if there is an official statement by the British Royal Family that says the original photo was heavily forged (colors of clothing changed, compositing beyond amateur photo editing, etc.) rather than just minor edits like erasing blemishes or changing hue & saturation. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The question will also resolve to YES if multiple major press outlets agree that the photo was heavily doctors rather than edited by Kate herself.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["celebrities", "politics-default", "kate-middleton", "british-royal-family", "royalty"], "textDescription": "Kate Middleton released a photo on Mother's day of her family\n\n[tweet]She claimed (via the Twitter account) that the photo was lightly edited.\n\n[tweet]The more drastic theories say that the photo heavily forged.\n\n[tweet]This question will resolve to YES if there is an official statement by the British Royal Family that says the original photo was heavily forged (colors of clothing changed, compositing beyond amateur photo editing, etc.) rather than just minor edits like erasing blemishes or changing hue & saturation. \n\n\nThe question will also resolve to YES if multiple major press outlets agree that the photo was heavily doctors rather than edited by Kate herself."}, {"id": "YjXEJCcbi8cWWedDbwmU", "creatorId": "fP5OQUWYt4MW17A2giGjMGsw1uu2", "creatorUsername": "LarsDoucet", "creatorName": "Lars Doucet", "createdTime": 1672976467033, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gh_23ZmfLBMGBR2crNwb0T8hBnPAap5nkWiSKuB=s96-c", "closeTime": 1691106390109, "question": "Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?", "slug": "will-the-new-york-times-write-a-non", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-new-york-times-write-a-non", "pool": {"NO": 21581.859773433374, "YES": 203.9330651935452}, "probability": 0.9935551318597965, "p": 0.5929535572525365, "totalLiquidity": 1440, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 60364.37509918106, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1691106390109, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 66, "lastUpdatedTime": 1691106367897, "lastBetTime": 1691106367783, "lastCommentTime": 1691106335984, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times that mentions the word \"Georgism\", \"Henry George\", or \"Land Value Tax\", in a neutral or positive light.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 5, 9:41pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 9, 8:11pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Jan 9, 8:16pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FrrTCQ1mv3s.png?alt=media&token=1af0aa27-a39a-4ce6-b50d-b9a98d0b5071", "groupSlugs": ["new-york-times", "georgism", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if, by December 31 2023, 11:59:59 PM CT, at least one article has appeared on the New York Times that mentions the word \"Georgism\", \"Henry George\", or \"Land Value Tax\", in a neutral or positive light.\n\nJan 5, 9:41pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023 \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023?\n\nJan 9, 8:11pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article about Georgism in 2023? \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023?\n\nJan 9, 8:16pm: Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023? \u2192 Will the New York Times write a non-negative article that mentions Georgism in 2023, even in passing?"}, {"id": "STfgQxKEB76Q8hYNVMk6", "creatorId": "GPse71VnBSenORNq7iSUzo2svKW2", "creatorUsername": "eppsilon", "creatorName": "eppsilon", "createdTime": 1700420611317, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Feppsilon%2F-cQYEcm_wL.jpeg?alt=media&token=0d7114da-1a10-4682-97ce-fb80eee1f9a6", "closeTime": 1700957127106, "question": "\ud83c\udfc8 2023 NCAAF: Will #16 Arizona beat Arizona State?", "slug": "-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-beat-arizo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/eppsilon/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-beat-arizo", "pool": {"NO": 6299.629566897988, "YES": 17.8723079382371}, "probability": 0.9993898113759926, "p": 0.8229026629905816, "totalLiquidity": 90, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6783.277505074042, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700957127106, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700957123273, "lastBetTime": 1700957123154, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Tempe, AZ.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Head-to-head:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Overall: Arizona 41, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Arizona State 44", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 1", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Last 5: Arizona 1, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Arizona State 4", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ", Tie 0", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/eppsilon/4426794d7400.png?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=sxQzPBfoABQ%2FN5yO2bAoWkcCrU0gWTcm9bA0aRLBJlvs1bYI8xOLZXqahnS%2BQlka04Ll85c2mP9j7Q0kDyLiwCgW91F07dtylD8PWxByiOiiJuyF%2FY4fssO3fZ2vTt7tgjGF3mwBgtI0Ks0APirlQXLoy8PO3aa%2F68VViPTjWmXFM4MhL7%2F0SdCIJHIDvTvEpqyJKtCb1szRoUAOfmHsjM%2BVfWZCkCjV0M2U0wLlr73D6038kxlip06JvTZSrQq%2FhrBB%2FqZPa6MlQts%2BJ1n%2B5dgApcPR7XDiGJcPOu2gENd0GdasITO37z%2FgCGkHgHa20Y7xOaY%2BkhDvjENLdn%2FXUg%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football", "college-football", "pac12"], "textDescription": "2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Tempe, AZ.\n\nHead-to-head:\n\nOverall: Arizona 41, Arizona State 44, Tie 1\n\nLast 5: Arizona 1, Arizona State 4, Tie 0"}, {"id": "21h343yVPo2WVTNFNDdM", "creatorId": "TUk0ELR0SNV74OfRAOD48ciiS0W2", "creatorUsername": "itsTomekK", "creatorName": "Tomek \u26a1 K", "createdTime": 1676224683818, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AFdZucpX06ijc3lo890AF3SDad-CDRub6EcR6ADNMq-zFHY=s96-c", "closeTime": 1676927850200, "question": "February 2023: Will there be more than 5230 exoplanets confirmed?", "slug": "february-2023-will-there-be-more-th", "url": "https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/february-2023-will-there-be-more-th", "pool": {"NO": 941.9507041122669, "YES": 163.1502450678086}, "probability": 0.9651116795823186, "p": 0.8273284147985964, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3459.659063314787, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1676927850200, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1676929938903, "lastBetTime": 1676921860649, "lastCommentTime": 1676929935879, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fcx8PmgrWd9.png?alt=media&token=1d675900-c1e8-4566-b838-c8a6486f0169", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "//datacheck on March 1, regardless of 'last update'", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FkzqRVFhONA.png?alt=media&token=ec3c11f5-98b2-4ee9-8f2f-e64bc9ffc670", "groupSlugs": ["science-default", "space-exploration"], "textDescription": "https://exoplanets.nasa.gov/\n\n[image]//datacheck on March 1, regardless of 'last update'"}, {"id": "dfoCPnlBt2yf3GlF1waq", "creatorId": "8eAZZGxP7hfTL7B0RlOsfxLKQMp1", "creatorUsername": "jamesyorston", "creatorName": "james yorston", "createdTime": 1697656824819, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocL4CM4YXG9OagO2oJNb-TTMn3eDuLQs1GTLwDAFC9kN=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067140000, "question": "Will there be an eruption of the Campi Flegrei near Napoli in Italy in 2023?", "slug": "will-there-be-an-eruption-of-the-ca", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jamesyorston/will-there-be-an-eruption-of-the-ca", "pool": {"NO": 86.56366898572068, "YES": 1079.0775288584548}, "probability": 0.02388580852994871, "p": 0.23373976425996792, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 926.3818990002733, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704313909470, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "resolverId": "EJQOCF3MfLTFYbhiKncrNefQDBz1", "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704313962768, "lastBetTime": 1704047045572, "lastCommentTime": 1704313961009, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "One of the most active calderas on Earth is showing increasing signs of restlessness. ", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "The last significant eruption was in 1538. One of its biggest eruptions took place 39,000 years ago and may have led to the extinction of Neanderthal man, researchers say. Magma from that blast has been found in Greenland, 2,800 miles (4,500km) away.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "It has been jolted by more than 1,100 earthquakes in the past month alone, including a 4.0 magnitude quake on Monday and a 4.2 two weeks ago \u2013 the strongest in the area for four decades.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["natural-disasters", "napoli", "italy", "volcano", "geology", "vulcanology", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "One of the most active calderas on Earth is showing increasing signs of restlessness. \nThe last significant eruption was in 1538. One of its biggest eruptions took place 39,000 years ago and may have led to the extinction of Neanderthal man, researchers say. Magma from that blast has been found in Greenland, 2,800 miles (4,500km) away.\nIt has been jolted by more than 1,100 earthquakes in the past month alone, including a 4.0 magnitude quake on Monday and a 4.2 two weeks ago \u2013 the strongest in the area for four decades."}, {"id": "x1bK0Gmar1XrtKk7BJvY", "creatorId": "CjpcOHVaDtS42WVYg3C9uql5uQz2", "creatorUsername": "chairduck", "creatorName": "chairduck", "createdTime": 1700334869514, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fchairduck%2Ffq_o_BVkxD.webp?alt=media&token=588d0a2d-ed06-46ab-89d1-28e3c89b9f95", "closeTime": 1700392242871, "question": "Will MJF still be the AEW World Champion by the end of Full Gear 2023?", "slug": "will-mjf-still-be-the-aew-world-cha", "url": "https://manifold.markets/chairduck/will-mjf-still-be-the-aew-world-cha", "pool": {"NO": 253.73413198149734, "YES": 30.073407749789908}, "probability": 0.9447492735119319, "p": 0.6696035242290753, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 319.86169044638643, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1700392242871, "resolutionProbability": 0.94, "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710208052156, "lastBetTime": 1700370227401, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["combat-sports", "wrestling", "aew-b1764bd37d14"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "sxTP72pKjjcVOiin1il2", "creatorId": "pAI0Ru1Xu5aKSm6InG4g9cotgu33", "creatorUsername": "BradBooker", "creatorName": "Brad Booker", "createdTime": 1691012768372, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AAcHTte09insW_eXhwgxbFMMKj1x0RIzJAq7w9EJqW9Wx7-i=s96-c", "closeTime": 1694667540000, "question": "Will the New York Jets win their first Home game versus the Buffalo Bills on Monday September 11, 2023?", "slug": "will-the-new-york-jets-win-their-fi", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BradBooker/will-the-new-york-jets-win-their-fi", "pool": {"NO": 1988.6558567577595, "YES": 189.26489594780423}, "probability": 0.996490909592784, "p": 0.9643194368784133, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 22035.747784810268, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1695512942462, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694630308217, "lastBetTime": 1694630304765, "lastCommentTime": 1694497244140, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will begin their 2023 season in primetime at MetLife Stadium with a division clash against the Buffalo Bills on Monday, Sept. 11. The Week 1 contest, which will be played on the 22nd anniversary of 9-11 and air on ESPN/ABC, will kick off at 8:15 p.m.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FNIk9VUgf4t.png?alt=media&token=25364dc3-feac-4dd0-b11e-efe4e8e97452", "groupSlugs": ["sports-default", "football"], "textDescription": "Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets will begin their 2023 season in primetime at MetLife Stadium with a division clash against the Buffalo Bills on Monday, Sept. 11. The Week 1 contest, which will be played on the 22nd anniversary of 9-11 and air on ESPN/ABC, will kick off at 8:15 p.m."}, {"id": "mUWis1CrExL5MYdj3t9h", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1703080350325, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1703286000000, "question": "Will XMR close higher on December 22 than it closed on December 21?", "slug": "will-xmr-close-higher-on-december-2-803cade229b4", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xmr-close-higher-on-december-2-803cade229b4", "pool": {"NO": 1515.4494678189353, "YES": 80.41516332879809}, "probability": 0.98, "p": 0.7222311010006937, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1679.0330540435798, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703291389938, "resolutionProbability": 0.98, "resolverId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1703291374496, "lastBetTime": 1703285921221, "lastCommentTime": 1703291373748, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/XMR-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws%2Fb405f4f6f557.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "hawsbollah", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting\n\nPrevious Close: $\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$"}, {"id": "IXUxHqSaNELJRST6ZErf", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1694309334359, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1694386800000, "question": "Will Ethereum (ETH/USD) Close Higher September 10th Than The Close Of September 9th? [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-s-48abbea2adb5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-ethereum-ethusd-close-higher-s-48abbea2adb5", "pool": {"NO": 122.00819283151672, "YES": 829.2233912586777}, "probability": 0.040000000000000015, "p": 0.2206895654513231, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1163.6151606120263, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1694391887413, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1694391885343, "lastBetTime": 1694386385172, "lastCommentTime": 1694391884726, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close 1 hours prior.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F4M09UZP3TP.png?alt=media&token=1e944240-f2aa-45be-a5b2-a7aaa2f12a99", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/questions", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/group/-sircryptomind-crypto-stock/about", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fg5RWcv-Kid.png?alt=media&token=19f42145-573f-4105-ae66-a309231ab936", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-speculation", "crypto-prices", "finance", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "ETH/USD Closes 8pm ET/12am UTC.\n\nPredictions close 1 hours prior.\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/ETH-USD\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "ryWtR1WDcx76f3aWnvJQ", "creatorId": "p5eM1HLifdfFfZUC71FtbGXq1IP2", "creatorUsername": "georgeyw", "creatorName": "George", "createdTime": 1697176452453, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fgeorgeyw%2F_DXEj-WDQO.jpg?alt=media&token=3db3811c-853e-4e22-9a18-4afc2e531611", "closeTime": 1697264432107, "question": "Will Israel rescind their order to evacuate?", "slug": "will-israel-rescind-their-order-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/georgeyw/will-israel-rescind-their-order-to", "pool": {"NO": 49.8716378288982, "YES": 4593.022067584005}, "probability": 0.0037740491327684818, "p": 0.2586523883346025, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4545.14276499354, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1697264432107, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1697264419715, "lastBetTime": 1697264419389, "lastCommentTime": 1697254620412, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve NO if the duration of the evacuation order expires without Israel rescinding the order.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Israel rescinds the order at any time in the first 24hrs, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and does not rescind the order before 48hrs are up, this market resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and rescinds the order after 36hrs have passed, this market resolves YES.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["israel", "arabisraeli-conflict", "israelhamas-conflict-2023"], "textDescription": "https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation\n\nThis market will resolve NO if the duration of the evacuation order expires without Israel rescinding the order.\n\nIf Israel rescinds the order at any time in the first 24hrs, this market resolves YES.\n\nIf Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and does not rescind the order before 48hrs are up, this market resolves NO.\n\nIf Israel extends the evacuation order to 48hrs and rescinds the order after 36hrs have passed, this market resolves YES."}, {"id": "SLVhLztpN4RiSG6qiJEY", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1677748368012, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678381898119, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Are Joey Swoll's Videos Good Or Bad For Gym Culture?\" reach 50k views or more by 3/09 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-are-joey-swolls-v", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-are-joey-swolls-v", "pool": {"NO": 14.428593521708535, "YES": 10424.587009437879}, "probability": 0.0006793025706430207, "p": 0.32936601911440827, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 10471.613320855125, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1678381898119, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218563533, "lastBetTime": 1678381893254, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/oYqrCthSWJU", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/oYqrCthSWJU", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F2zigiXAKUV.png?alt=media&token=50bf06ca-1bc7-4f16-8ce0-150c9b234882", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg", "vaush"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/oYqrCthSWJU\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "fD2R8jGBIh7zlMMIyeBz", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1694041402029, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1696802340000, "question": "Will the CSU party get 40 or more percent in the election on October 8th, 2023 (bavaria)?", "slug": "will-the-csu-party-get-40-or-more-p", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-the-csu-party-get-40-or-more-p", "pool": {"NO": 69.76339409064389, "YES": 1513.6025403784442}, "probability": 0.011208411188981015, "p": 0.1973910788572672, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1363.6025403784438, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696824776895, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696824759617, "lastBetTime": 1696798766959, "lastCommentTime": 1696824758204, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://dawum.de/Bayern/INSA/2023-09-05/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://dawum.de/Bayern/INSA/2023-09-05/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Recent numbers show that the leading party in Bavaria, CSU, is loosing voters. Will they grow again?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the final vote ends with 40 or more percent for the CSU and no if the numbers are below 40.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "73013bec-8add-46c3-879e-24e34e2501e8", "url": "https://dawum.de/Bayern/INSA/2023-09-05/", "image": "http://diagramme.dawum.de/dawum.de-2023-09-05-Bayern-INSA.png", "title": "Landtagswahl Bayern: Wahlumfrage vom 05.09.2023 von INSA | Sonntagsfrage #ltwby", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Auswertung der Wahlumfrage, Sonntagsfrage vom 05.09.2023 von INSA zur Landtagswahl in Bayern mit Koalitionen, dem Umfrageverlauf und Vergleich mit dem Wahlergebnis #ltwby", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["german-politics"], "textDescription": "https://dawum.de/Bayern/INSA/2023-09-05/\n\nRecent numbers show that the leading party in Bavaria, CSU, is loosing voters. Will they grow again?\n\nResolves YES if the final vote ends with 40 or more percent for the CSU and no if the numbers are below 40.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "r1pE3P9RYSJsylz0skaB", "creatorId": "YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23", "creatorUsername": "jack", "creatorName": "Jack", "createdTime": 1665156592355, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096", "closeTime": 1668832013897, "question": "Will Ukraine control Kherson city center by end of 2022?", "slug": "will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c", "url": "https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c", "pool": {"NO": 14870.73029424259, "YES": 325.57890024070315}, "probability": 0.9901777080678913, "p": 0.6881929366221394, "totalLiquidity": 1490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 28776.504002644164, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1668832013897, "resolutionProbability": 0.9891322378305836, "uniqueBettorCount": 84, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668832009521, "lastBetTime": 1668832009356, "lastCommentTime": 1668829736748, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Because control over a city can be difficult to resolve, this question resolves based on control of ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Svobody Square", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://goo.gl/maps/S6g3Z7j9f1veoq8b8", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " in central Kherson, where the Kherson Regional Administration building is located.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Ukraine controls Svobody Square in central Kherson starting before the end of 2022, for a period of at least 7 consecutive days, according to reporting by the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Institute for the Study of War", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.understandingwar.org/", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " (ISW). Otherwise resolves NO. Times will be in the local timezone in Ukraine.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Questions for different dates", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-f684d91ff07d/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-ca4ba43083d9/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c", "height": "200px", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Related questions", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher/when-will-ukraine-regain-control-of/will-ukraine-recapture-the-city-of/will-the-ukraine-take-back-kherson", "height": "400px", "frameborder": 0, "allowfullscreen": true}}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["russia", "ukraine", "world-default", "wars", "ukraine-counteroffensive", "ukrainerussia-war"], "textDescription": "Because control over a city can be difficult to resolve, this question resolves based on control of Svobody Square in central Kherson, where the Kherson Regional Administration building is located.\n\nResolves YES if Ukraine controls Svobody Square in central Kherson starting before the end of 2022, for a period of at least 7 consecutive days, according to reporting by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Otherwise resolves NO. Times will be in the local timezone in Ukraine.\n\n(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)\n\nQuestions for different dates\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-f684d91ff07d/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c-ca4ba43083d9/will-ukraine-control-kherson-city-c)Related questions\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/grid/will-ukraine-regain-control-of-kher/when-will-ukraine-regain-control-of/will-ukraine-recapture-the-city-of/will-the-ukraine-take-back-kherson)"}, {"id": "kDK81Gvlsz3yDcN47awE", "creatorId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "creatorUsername": "wavedash", "creatorName": "wavedash", "createdTime": 1665254059829, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Ghf7mTa4XpdokLtErsRR8uggmTryAopnOGTpV3VoQ=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704088740000, "question": "Will Twitch remove the ability for Amazon Prime members to subscribe to a channel for free in 2023?", "slug": "will-twitch-remove-the-ability-for", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wavedash/will-twitch-remove-the-ability-for", "pool": {"NO": 293.78408125603664, "YES": 4362.806524183633}, "probability": 0.03774454080481792, "p": 0.36809142774048853, "totalLiquidity": 840, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4009.965762772403, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704151445504, "resolutionProbability": 0.04, "resolverId": "LzQUVZerpReHO6SCGUpgAQ8n8dy2", "uniqueBettorCount": 33, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704151445756, "lastBetTime": 1704071285581, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if Twitch removes Prime subs. Also resolves YES if Prime Gaming is spun off from Amazon Prime and becomes a separate subscription, and \"regular\" Amazon Prime users don't have Prime subs.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "For details on what Prime subs are: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.amazongames.com/en-us/support/prime-gaming/articles/subscribe-to-a-channel-using-prime-gaming", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.amazongames.com/en-us/support/prime-gaming/articles/subscribe-to-a-channel-using-prime-gaming", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["gaming", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if Twitch removes Prime subs. Also resolves YES if Prime Gaming is spun off from Amazon Prime and becomes a separate subscription, and \"regular\" Amazon Prime users don't have Prime subs.\n\nFor details on what Prime subs are: https://www.amazongames.com/en-us/support/prime-gaming/articles/subscribe-to-a-channel-using-prime-gaming\n\n"}, {"id": "nmTDWu6KQN3jXbYimXZo", "creatorId": "Wo2etMvKRKaOrlEMWUD9liFY5xk2", "creatorUsername": "Orca", "creatorName": "Orcatron", "createdTime": 1700080360396, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ACg8ocLhML-PPkGeBCMJUgxx90-h3AzhZwuGvkTJjFyB-ROE=s96-c", "closeTime": 1700454428686, "question": "NFL\ud83c\udfc8: Week 11 -- Will the Minnesota Vikings win their NFL Game against the Denver Broncos on 11/19?", "slug": "nfl-week-11-will-the-minnesota-viki", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orca/nfl-week-11-will-the-minnesota-viki", "pool": {"NO": 13.851212679878245, "YES": 6581.64481977787}, "probability": 0.0020701248495088942, "p": 0.4963983346828451, "totalLiquidity": 410, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 9996.49451171216, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700454428686, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 25, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700454406930, "lastBetTime": 1700454406792, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph"}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://oaidalleapiprodscus.blob.core.windows.net/private/org-nyQjO96Y9m1nvs1nuKELNuRQ/user-rdQGxAZSfLTSAhvgWME2ppVa/img-iD1yzRFTDcaVOhSMRaB2qCgE.png?st=2023-11-15T19%3A32%3A55Z&se=2023-11-15T21%3A32%3A55Z&sp=r&sv=2021-08-06&sr=b&rscd=inline&rsct=image/png&skoid=6aaadede-4fb3-4698-a8f6-684d7786b067&sktid=a48cca56-e6da-484e-a814-9c849652bcb3&skt=2023-11-15T20%3A31%3A45Z&ske=2023-11-16T20%3A31%3A45Z&sks=b&skv=2021-08-06&sig=MZPrv7T8FnOfoIONoJ8l/VjL2MTJUZ/yGVEXgyYNof4%3D", "groupSlugs": ["minnesota-vikings", "fantasy-football-nfl", "nfl", "denver-broncos"], "textDescription": ""}, {"id": "ECTnmgrIJRUpSb8U9Inj", "creatorId": "APtmK3Sep3TJB92vIgWeSmAEwVa2", "creatorUsername": "parhizj", "creatorName": "JRP", "createdTime": 1690328887809, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fparhizj%2FH7gwcxOdlA.jpg?alt=media&token=30c22eec-0b17-4d18-8a85-f1db3ce3acf8", "closeTime": 1690388676385, "question": "Will the UAP committee hearing on Youtube get at least 100k views by 8 PM EST on July 26, 2023?", "slug": "will-the-uap-committee-hearing-on-y-f93b876b3823", "url": "https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-the-uap-committee-hearing-on-y-f93b876b3823", "pool": {"NO": 2294.083810247679, "YES": 44.986488398076496}, "probability": 0.9876772838013664, "p": 0.6111586018601249, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2346.4719521214724, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1690388676385, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1690388741729, "lastBetTime": 1690385781678, "lastCommentTime": 1690388738647, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "There is a hearing on UAPs tomorrow (also called UFOs). It will be streamed on youtube: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ". I'm more interested with how many views it gets that day since I want to resolve it early that night. Closes at 8PM July 26.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolution criteria:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "At 8 PM EST tomorrow, I will hit refresh on the web page at the URL", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " and use the number shown to me there to resolve the question as to the number of views at that time (I'll also screenshot it for posterity). If it shows '100k' or greater it will resolve YES, if it is less than '100k' it will resolve NO (99.9k will resolve NO).  If the hearing is cancelled or not shown on youtube for whatever reason this question will resolve N/A. If I am unable to get the viewership count at 8PM I will use the 'observation' closest prior to 8 PM that I have taken (I'll try to keep track periodically). ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "If the video gets 100k views before 8PM I'll resolve the question early.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rationale: I want to promote this hearing (that I am anticipating quite a bit) so I am trying to raise awareness.", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "In the news:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/ex-top-defense-official-expects-new-details-on-pentagons-retrieval-of-ufos/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://nypost.com/2023/07/25/ex-top-defense-official-expects-new-details-on-pentagons-retrieval-of-ufos/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ae5f42c6-d1c5-4c4d-be0e-8352cd7a76da", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY", "image": "https://i.ytimg.com/vi/KQ7Dw-739VY/maxresdefault_live.jpg", "title": "Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Hearing", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Learn more at https://republicans-oversight.house.gov/", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["aliens", "ufo", "unidentified-anomalous-phenomena-ua"], "textDescription": "There is a hearing on UAPs tomorrow (also called UFOs). It will be streamed on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY. I'm more interested with how many views it gets that day since I want to resolve it early that night. Closes at 8PM July 26.\n\n\nResolution criteria:\n\nAt 8 PM EST tomorrow, I will hit refresh on the web page at the URL\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQ7Dw-739VY and use the number shown to me there to resolve the question as to the number of views at that time (I'll also screenshot it for posterity). If it shows '100k' or greater it will resolve YES, if it is less than '100k' it will resolve NO (99.9k will resolve NO).  If the hearing is cancelled or not shown on youtube for whatever reason this question will resolve N/A. If I am unable to get the viewership count at 8PM I will use the 'observation' closest prior to 8 PM that I have taken (I'll try to keep track periodically). If the video gets 100k views before 8PM I'll resolve the question early.\n\nRationale: I want to promote this hearing (that I am anticipating quite a bit) so I am trying to raise awareness.\n\nIn the news:\nhttps://nypost.com/2023/07/25/ex-top-defense-official-expects-new-details-on-pentagons-retrieval-of-ufos/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "qwwje4fY4O4JOpV5Ikta", "creatorId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "creatorUsername": "mattyb", "creatorName": "Matty B", "createdTime": 1705109204579, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmattyb%2Feq8TCTaQW_.jpeg?alt=media&token=b8632c4a-5f41-4148-a6aa-3b42c0d89c03", "closeTime": 1710271456340, "question": "\ud83d\udc3c vs. \ud83e\udeb1: Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) have a better opening weekend than Dune: Part Two (2024)?", "slug": "-vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-have", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mattyb/-vs-will-kung-fu-panda-4-2024-have", "pool": {"NO": 111.03635917780048, "YES": 18696.586523757927}, "probability": 0.0027026185254936013, "p": 0.31333162317811275, "totalLiquidity": 610, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 20858.092332716526, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710271456340, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "oPxjIzlvC5fRbGCaVgkvAiyoXBB2", "uniqueBettorCount": 34, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710271457472, "lastBetTime": 1710271450827, "lastCommentTime": 1710269782444, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " opens March 8th and ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Dune: Part Two (2024)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/?ref_=bo_se_r_1", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Also bet on", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "gridCardsComponent", "attrs": {"contractIds": "lj1dRQ0rTSwBDKKmoOlo,AAYXWb9dRBFuBzDnthuo"}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/mattyb%2Fd1d5cf8395a6.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["movies", "television-film", "boxoffice", "dune", "animals", "cartoons-animations", "animated-movies", "timothee-chalamet", "timothee-chalamet-1f3dcb6c13ca", "martial-arts", "film-battles", "pandas", "dreamworks"], "textDescription": "Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th and Dune: Part Two (2024) opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?\n\nThis will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).\n\nAlso bet on\n\n[markets]"}, {"id": "GR9NAqtRSW4hiOq1VviB", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678040975219, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678397283010, "question": "Will Vaush's video \"Will Dark Brandon Destroy TikTok Once And For All?\" reach 50k views or more by 3/11 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-vaushs-video-will-dark-brandon", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-vaushs-video-will-dark-brandon", "pool": {"NO": 11068.057720263554, "YES": 10.245073297764975}, "probability": 0.9993606865594696, "p": 0.5913271764795219, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11043.422673341993, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678397283010, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1678397279390, "lastBetTime": 1678397279218, "lastCommentTime": 1678395608401, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/zRMFtTN4loI", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/zRMFtTN4loI", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FtfIJdpoKum.png?alt=media&token=5c2b289a-361b-458a-9f43-6a282a63ddb4", "groupSlugs": ["vaush", "destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/zRMFtTN4loI\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "AnfMsYlxvMr3fwmuLMPN", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1709872820185, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1710129653960, "question": "Will there be a SURPRISING UPSET at the Oscars? (Winner <10% according Manifold)", "slug": "will-there-be-a-surprising-upset-at", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-there-be-a-surprising-upset-at", "pool": {"NO": 6.320271010898523, "YES": 3376.754749730236}, "probability": 0.001815151834731868, "p": 0.4927852376144223, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 3308.36157713463, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1710129653960, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 4, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710129654565, "lastBetTime": 1710129647723, "lastCommentTime": 1710129642092, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING\u00a0", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market will resolve YES if there is a (non-shorts) winner at the 96th Academy Awards who Manifold gave ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "less than 10% ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "chance to win the Oscar.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A.K.A. a ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "SURPRISING UPSET.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The source for the probability of the Oscar nominees is defined by ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "this spreadsheet", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S2wS_wIFaIoECMgUosOMuCAWDa93_Eq3wPdarKV_ouA/edit?usp=sharing", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " (<10% is highlighted in orange).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I repeat: this market does ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "not", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " refer to any probability that you might find on Manifold, it is solely defined by the linked spreadsheet (computed right before market creation).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This does not include the three \"shorts\" categories: only the 20 feature film categories are eligible.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Further details:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This spreadsheet reflects my best good faith attempt to compute the \"average probability for each winner according to Manifold\".", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Rough process: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(1) Gather many markets from Manifold (~70 or so).", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(2) Take the mean for each category/nominee.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "(3) Normalize so the probabilities sum to 1.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Still, there is no single correct way to do this (e.g. which markets to include), some of the Manifold probabilities are bound to be a bit wonky, and probabilities might shift in the final few days, so bear all that in mind before betting.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask! ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["oscars-2024", "oscars", "movies"], "textDescription": "PLEASE READ THE DESCRIPTION BEFORE BETTING\u00a0\n\nThis market will resolve YES if there is a (non-shorts) winner at the 96th Academy Awards who Manifold gave less than 10% chance to win the Oscar.\n\nA.K.A. a SURPRISING UPSET.\n\nThe source for the probability of the Oscar nominees is defined by this spreadsheet (<10% is highlighted in orange).\n\nI repeat: this market does not refer to any probability that you might find on Manifold, it is solely defined by the linked spreadsheet (computed right before market creation).\n\nThis does not include the three \"shorts\" categories: only the 20 feature film categories are eligible.\n\nFurther details:\n\nThis spreadsheet reflects my best good faith attempt to compute the \"average probability for each winner according to Manifold\".\n\nRough process: \n\n(1) Gather many markets from Manifold (~70 or so).\n\n(2) Take the mean for each category/nominee.\n\n(3) Normalize so the probabilities sum to 1.\n\nStill, there is no single correct way to do this (e.g. which markets to include), some of the Manifold probabilities are bound to be a bit wonky, and probabilities might shift in the final few days, so bear all that in mind before betting.\n\nIf any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask! \n\n\n"}, {"id": "41LZ0a3Mt7YU4SPvLC8N", "creatorId": "rFJu0EIdR6RP8d1vHKSh62pbnbH2", "creatorUsername": "SimonGrayson", "creatorName": "Simon Grayson", "createdTime": 1686723731881, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSimonGrayson%2FiMbHeih3Ag.jpg?alt=media&token=9581e11d-a233-44a8-a846-fd0042ad0696", "closeTime": 1689228972726, "question": "Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 13th July show positive growth?", "slug": "will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-a7c6fc2c86f8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-a7c6fc2c86f8", "pool": {"NO": 0.06714368840857787, "YES": 8676.338275354767}, "probability": 1.6112981812648395e-05, "p": 0.6755522591041219, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 8887.612409025518, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1689228972726, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1689228937906, "lastBetTime": 1689228937773, "lastCommentTime": 1689228913291, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 BST on Thursday 13th July.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (May in this case). ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Will this reading show positive growth?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution notes:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "PGugv8cN5mR7TapIcMb6", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-rase-the-u-7d564fef1562"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "wPCFgrv3w2h6Nca4bSxG", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-768da41aa77c"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "contract-mention", "attrs": {"id": "aiWyYTEB8hDS87gKJKgl", "label": "/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-3a7a61e1b617"}}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default"], "textDescription": "The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 BST on Thursday 13th July.\n\nThis is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is beig measured (May in this case). \n\nWill this reading show positive growth?\n\nResolution notes:\n\nA reading of 0.0% resolves to NO\n\nThis market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant\n\nHere are some markets on other UK economic stats:\n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-rase-the-u-7d564fef1562 \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-768da41aa77c \n\n@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-3a7a61e1b617 "}, {"id": "izGyGHj3iztu6JKjmFZ5", "creatorId": "OEbsAczmbBc4Sl1bacYZNPJLLLc2", "creatorUsername": "SirCryptomind", "creatorName": "SirCryptomind", "createdTime": 1696207250639, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FSirCryptomind%2FGsA1Qg1O1h.gif?alt=media&token=91b4edd5-879d-468c-864f-ab72a1c0be97", "closeTime": 1696274100000, "question": "Will The Russell 2000 (RUT) close higher on October 2nd than it closed on September 29th?  [\u1e40ana Leaderboard]", "slug": "will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-a5666750cf4a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/SirCryptomind/will-the-russell-2000-rut-close-hig-a5666750cf4a", "pool": {"NO": 82.86174791562559, "YES": 2123.7903006681145}, "probability": 0.012649069198721651, "p": 0.2471895943483506, "totalLiquidity": 250, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2787.0233115100777, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696280057025, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696280055092, "lastBetTime": 1696273351140, "lastCommentTime": 1696280054540, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions close at 315pm ET  ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(715pm UTC)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FGv8xvdKXfd.png?alt=media&token=e928e541-7c71-4f46-a1ed-12262f5770bc", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES or NO", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " : Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Google Finance", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUT:INDEXRUSSELL", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/VIX:INDEXCBOE", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BONUS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "(", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "Bots are excluded)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2F8kWdmXmmL5.png?alt=media&token=5ead17d8-0969-4a9e-afb8-589e6f5128e4", "title": null}}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "stocks", "economics-default", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "RUT closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)  (15 minute delay).\n\nPredictions close at 315pm ET  (715pm UTC)\n\nPrevious Close: \n\n[image]Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.\n\nResolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nBONUS : Each Day That Gets 25+ Taders For This Prediction, I Will Add 100 Mana Subsidy To The Following Prediction For This Market.\n\nDASHBOARD\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)\n\n[image]I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE\n\n"}, {"id": "l7dexA3OWiih7HlK9JwF", "creatorId": "4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2", "creatorUsername": "BTE", "creatorName": "Brian T. Edwards", "createdTime": 1668103619035, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2FaSsPoXaRJr.png?alt=media&token=bb7d2e7c-7345-43a6-aae9-3fcd8f17498c", "closeTime": 1668661140000, "question": "Will Tom Wesselmann's painting 'Long Delayed Nude' (1967-75) fetch more than $2.5mm at auction on November 16th?", "slug": "will-tom-wesselmanns-painting-long", "url": "https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-tom-wesselmanns-painting-long", "pool": {"NO": 334.48626230393637, "YES": 100.23778528170665}, "probability": 0.8900000000000022, "p": 0.7080000438932962, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 201.85534693474767, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1668705010543, "resolutionProbability": 0.8900000000000022, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1668705007444, "lastBetTime": 1668660253132, "lastCommentTime": 1668705006646, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FaEloUc5Z9p.jpeg?alt=media&token=d6534dee-d623-4f08-9596-0cce88550b62", "title": null}}, {"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 1}, "content": [{"text": "Tom Wesselmann", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auction/2022/contemporary-evening-auction-5/long-delayed-nude?locale=en", "class": "z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "1931 - 2004", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Long Delayed Nude", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "signed ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Wesselmann ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(bottom left);", "type": "text"}, {"text": " signed Wesselmann", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": ", titled ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Long Delayed Nude", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " and dated ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "1967-75", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (on the stretcher)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "oil on shaped canvas\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "67 \u00be by 101 \u00be in.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "172.1 by 258.4 cm.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Executed in 1967-75.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["art-dealer"], "textDescription": "[image]Tom Wesselmann\n\n1931 - 2004Long Delayed Nude\n\nsigned Wesselmann (bottom left); signed Wesselmann, titled Long Delayed Nude and dated 1967-75 (on the stretcher)\n\noil on shaped canvas\u00a0\n\n67 \u00be by 101 \u00be in.\n\n172.1 by 258.4 cm.\n\nExecuted in 1967-75."}, {"id": "nKut1hnYpDlacGwdtEOF", "creatorId": "4iC2MEvQtHNkBLBkORm84TeLe0O2", "creatorUsername": "LBeesley", "creatorName": "Spongpad", "createdTime": 1683232381536, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLBeesley%2F_uhmErZXVJ.jpg?alt=media&token=d65ca4c2-2cf8-44dd-8624-9f8c6cb1e486", "closeTime": 1685568319110, "question": "Will Icahn Enterprises LP common stock price be worth more than $40 per share at any point before June 1, 2023?", "slug": "will-icahn-enterprises-lp-common-st", "url": "https://manifold.markets/LBeesley/will-icahn-enterprises-lp-common-st", "pool": {"NO": 66.67833680863235, "YES": 1549.2437750964295}, "probability": 0.01894231085759709, "p": 0.3096852731774818, "totalLiquidity": 190, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1583.3553688997051, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1685568319110, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1685568316342, "lastBetTime": 1685547779627, "lastCommentTime": 1685568310311, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-targeted-by-short-seller-hindenburg-for-ponzi-like-structure-190556782.html", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-targeted-by-short-seller-hindenburg-for-ponzi-like-structure-190556782.html", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Carl Icahn's limited partnership's publicly traded stock has traded around $50/share since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "... Until this week. Hindenburg shorted the stock, and it has seen a 40% drop in the last three trading days.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "It'll be interesting to see where the stock goes from here. Far as I know, it might not have bottomed out yet.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Clarification: if the last trading day in May 2023 closes with IEP at $40, I'm resolving NO. The puts got us here.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "May 4, 5:17pm: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Will Icahn Enterprises LP common stock price be above $40 per share before June 1, 2023?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "strike"}]}, {"text": " \u2192 Will Icahn Enterprises LP common stock price be worth more than $40 per share at any point before June 1, 2023?", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FxGKKke6Ffh.png?alt=media&token=549d614e-53e9-4df5-a116-45c81a355d96", "groupSlugs": ["business"], "textDescription": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-targeted-by-short-seller-hindenburg-for-ponzi-like-structure-190556782.html\n\nCarl Icahn's limited partnership's publicly traded stock has traded around $50/share since the beginning of the Covid pandemic.\n\n... Until this week. Hindenburg shorted the stock, and it has seen a 40% drop in the last three trading days.\n\nIt'll be interesting to see where the stock goes from here. Far as I know, it might not have bottomed out yet.\n\nClarification: if the last trading day in May 2023 closes with IEP at $40, I'm resolving NO. The puts got us here.\n\nMay 4, 5:17pm: Will Icahn Enterprises LP common stock price be above $40 per share before June 1, 2023? \u2192 Will Icahn Enterprises LP common stock price be worth more than $40 per share at any point before June 1, 2023?"}, {"id": "oHozMASlGIEHdsczxbS8", "creatorId": "MaWKBofJ84bWOF5IhCf041Z5UfK2", "creatorUsername": "nick", "creatorName": "nick", "createdTime": 1685585707857, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmistersplice%2FqlGc-89ifU.png?alt=media&token=a86e0ff8-97ab-42fa-a758-cf4ab3185e8a", "closeTime": 1696870717706, "question": "Will Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. win the Democratic Primary and be a serious contender for President of the United States?", "slug": "will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-the-de", "url": "https://manifold.markets/nick/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-win-the-de", "pool": {"NO": 1035.7996966747914, "YES": 4255.961725779612}, "probability": 0.02068859404559452, "p": 0.07986959482566493, "totalLiquidity": 1201, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 31452.539216941525, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1696870724829, "resolutionProbability": 0.02, "uniqueBettorCount": 56, "lastUpdatedTime": 1696803166702, "lastBetTime": 1696803166431, "lastCommentTime": 1687486711746, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "75ca97d7-4539-4ad9-b8da-fc41bbca14b9", "url": "https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/", "image": "https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/04/AP23109664913878-e1682217857325.jpg?w=1280", "title": "Why I believe RFK Jr. will be the 2024 Democratic nominee", "inputKey": "create market", "deleteNode": null, "description": "I am still not convinced that President Joe Biden will actually run for reelection.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FQ6s4Dd8W2z.png?alt=media&token=2d25601b-2cd1-402b-b423-e824fc1f7d74", "groupSlugs": ["us-politics"], "textDescription": "https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4020920-why-i-believe-rfk-jr-will-be-the-2024-democratic-nominee/\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "QXgR3psYmUF1htdOFsM6", "creatorId": "rSxMtWUlLOaEAQfJUAFk6bw2A6K2", "creatorUsername": "Orimos", "creatorName": "Christian", "createdTime": 1699636301802, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FOrimos%2FM8OtYccJL3.jpeg?alt=media&token=6973ca11-c92b-4c32-8931-99f069c2c792", "closeTime": 1699891200000, "question": "Will EURO STOXX 50 close higher november 13th than the close of november 10th? (Daily Market)", "slug": "will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-dcb956ae87a6", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Orimos/will-euro-stoxx-50-close-higher-nov-dcb956ae87a6", "pool": {"NO": 1002.7349472836302, "YES": 163.400969920238}, "probability": 0.9460036752951032, "p": 0.7405926419564136, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1099.7555916154488, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1699894904102, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "uniqueBettorCount": 14, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710222343690, "lastBetTime": 1699891158075, "lastCommentTime": 1699894893457, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ. ", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Predictions ends 1 hour earlier.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous close:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "image", "attrs": {"alt": null, "src": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fwh3gqFHRJQ.png?alt=media&token=4924f0e1-31f0-4617-abaf-c5fd235f9836", "title": null}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves according to the display at ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the end of the day.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["stocks", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Euro Stoxx 50 closes 6PM MEZ. \n\nPredictions ends 1 hour earlier.\n\nPrevious close:\n\n[image]Resolves according to the display at https://g.co/finance/SX5E:INDEXSTOXX at the end of the day.\n\nResolves NO if closes Flat (Same Close Price As Prior Day) regardless of color of % & Chart on Google Finance as the close value is the final decider and will be confirmed by second and/or third source based on Historical Data If Needed.\n\nIf Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS\n\nI DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE"}, {"id": "8G2yshP3JRLR251JbVX5", "creatorId": "Pt9UoQet9eUOb2EDNDpc6vJMZ9f1", "creatorUsername": "PatrickLD", "creatorName": "Patrick", "createdTime": 1676575716595, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FPatrickLD%2FDWXJRn2W8j.jpeg?alt=media&token=b5c903b1-13b6-44e0-832b-b5f14ea6f7bc", "closeTime": 1703910284947, "question": "Will the S&P 500 have a positive annual return for the year 2023?", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-have-a-positive-ann", "url": "https://manifold.markets/PatrickLD/will-the-sp-500-have-a-positive-ann", "pool": {"NO": 17375.77227310587, "YES": 646.8436920611223}, "probability": 0.9883161137057386, "p": 0.7589743287266429, "totalLiquidity": 1465, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 33651.97965607664, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1703910284947, "resolutionProbability": 0.99, "resolverId": "JlVpsgzLsbOUT4pajswVMr0ZzmM2", "uniqueBettorCount": 85, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710211783508, "lastBetTime": 1703910254186, "lastCommentTime": 1703910230892, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the closing value of the index is higher than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the year 2023, the market would resolve to \"Yes\", meaning that the S&P 500 had a positive annual return for the year. If the closing value of the index is lower than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the year 2023, the market would resolve to \"No\", meaning that the S&P 500 had a negative annual return for the year.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-15 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-03-15 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FTCTXtg25ha.png?alt=media&token=873576ec-613a-48cc-b696-1383f8773e07", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "new-years-resolutions-2024", "sp-500-439f18dbc885", "interest-rates", "derivative-markets", "wall-street-bets", "wall-street-predictions"], "textDescription": "If the closing value of the index is higher than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the year 2023, the market would resolve to \"Yes\", meaning that the S&P 500 had a positive annual return for the year. If the closing value of the index is lower than the opening value of the index at the beginning of the year 2023, the market would resolve to \"No\", meaning that the S&P 500 had a negative annual return for the year.\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-15 11:59 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2023-03-15 11:59 pm\n\nClose date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm"}, {"id": "sc25vaoXuo2UFeu7IZ82", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1701466918499, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1701558000000, "question": "Will BNB close higher on December 2 than it closed on December 1?", "slug": "will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-bnb-close-higher-on-december-2", "pool": {"NO": 171.1170510918032, "YES": 123.24952901302328}, "probability": 0.5599999999999995, "p": 0.4782700006998927, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 420.6246796419289, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1701565087219, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1701565087916, "lastBetTime": 1701557965446, "lastCommentTime": 1701565082886, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "228.5457", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/Haws/a395135922b1.jpg?GoogleAccessId=mantic-markets%40appspot.gserviceaccount.com&Expires=16447017600&Signature=R7UxSjBMYox5Z%2FNC4JKyNQW30BzASC3IKLmoK5OfyNL9uedMB8zYg5cHei0KHpit7sk%2BVccHK7WMhwMxm8sj8XDWIPrhQxW93g%2BwQXyS8Gg09Y5l5gd2QWEYavrO%2BWorQaKTNHdqh7mjzACyaP8TiYo9UJy9Je22J1W8JL18rDTeRypO%2B3%2FB7xsi1Sjm1HmPHZqsisWLTQoKomoLZHY5REdqz4MHAfNbO%2BpVJQa7WDbtgS%2Fzn4bIkT%2Bt2GeUl7WwOs5Bq7FdLssR%2B9WY08LXiRqgu6PKshOkcxMIdfC20PLImcCWEFlvI54bidN8G%2FLKfhg8DMGVPoWBzcfEhAA4bA%3D%3D", "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "hawsbollah", "crypto-prices", "sccsq4"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BNB daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BNB-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $228.5457\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "6MRbxAt6SjrbeaRPzfeA", "creatorId": "PQ8Ot2GZ8NfQdXiJVmJqf3yea8O2", "creatorUsername": "mirrorbot", "creatorName": "Mirror Bot", "createdTime": 1698982794130, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fmirrorbot%2FYyZGRnml_x.32?alt=media&token=0329b715-fee1-4181-b04d-7dc15c1983a0", "closeTime": 1704204000000, "question": "[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "slug": "metaculus-will-donald-trump-spend-a", "url": "https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/metaculus-will-donald-trump-spend-a", "pool": {"NO": 119.4241582489487, "YES": 4741.82473331997}, "probability": 0.0027776230247132205, "p": 0.0995815707556247, "totalLiquidity": 210, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 6772.6032332638315, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704210301906, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "cgrBqe2O3AU4Dnng7Nc9wuJHLKb2", "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710219615788, "lastBetTime": 1704201208056, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "heading", "attrs": {"level": 3}, "content": [{"text": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "the original on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19765/donald-trump-jailed-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "iframe", "attrs": {"src": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19765/?theme=dark", "frameBorder": 0}}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution criteria", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Yes", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " if, before January 1, 2024, ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "credible sources", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " report that Donald Trump has been confined to a jail or prison cell for at least one hour as a result of court proceedings.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print and additional background information can be found ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "on Metaculus", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19765/donald-trump-jailed-before-2024/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ".", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["us-politics", "2024-us-presidential-election", "donald-trump", "metaculus", "future-us-presidents", "prison-markets", "jail"], "textDescription": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?\n\nResolves the same as the original on Metaculus.\n\n(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19765/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that Donald Trump has been confined to a jail or prison cell for at least one hour as a result of court proceedings.\n\nFine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.\n\nOnce the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues."}, {"id": "Ifu8nU2hjPPmptfF86GK", "creatorId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "creatorUsername": "MarcusAbramovitch", "creatorName": "Marcus Abramovitch", "createdTime": 1696695215237, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMarcusAbramovitch%2F3T0leLyXbo.jpg?alt=media&token=64ec1422-3741-4481-99a5-f31d5ed47031", "closeTime": 1704171540000, "question": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-a526c2c3fee8", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-ukraine-have-de-facto-control-a526c2c3fee8", "pool": {"NO": 268.7903727756675, "YES": 43223.72065626679}, "probability": 0.0011524485942276197, "p": 0.1565004670105451, "totalLiquidity": 630, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 46878.73480605235, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704172097341, "resolutionProbability": 0, "resolverId": "b3WDWY8TdrhQKKNuJkNuvQKwHWE3", "uniqueBettorCount": 36, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704172097526, "lastBetTime": 1704136221579, "lastCommentTime": 1696707145806, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://maps.app.goo.gl/hXQ4a9me5Pa8HwsF6", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ") as not under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "latest Google Earth image of the station available", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://earth.google.com/web/search/Velikij+Tokmak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine/@47.23426725,35.71898701,75.01197177a,56.57951574d,35y,-0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCbv42hx1n0dAESVTG6RZnEdAGR4NbapO30FAITn22SZL1kFAOgMKATA", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " at the time of writing..", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Resolves the same as ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19104/will-ukraine-control-tokmak-on-jan-1-2024/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19104/will-ukraine-control-tokmak-on-jan-1-2024/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["wars", "ukraine", "ukrainerussia-war", "metaculus", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak (47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982) as not under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town.\n\nIf the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\n\nIf, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the latest Google Earth image of the station available at the time of writing..\n\nResolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19104/will-ukraine-control-tokmak-on-jan-1-2024/"}, {"id": "RTrAMmuvhkkWHLPe5y1k", "creatorId": "jn8ZKjXgwgfbwJqHRNbemA3Epw52", "creatorUsername": "MetaculusBot", "creatorName": "Metaculus Bot", "createdTime": 1680714513265, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMetaculusBot%2Fmetaculus.png?alt=media&token=bf8bb5f5-e1ce-4a37-886e-b88b648132f6", "closeTime": 1684714772423, "question": "Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship? (Philadelphia 76ers)", "slug": "which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-c20841e81ae5", "url": "https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/which-team-will-win-the-202223-nba-c20841e81ae5", "pool": {"NO": 212.66799204359472, "YES": 6365.802215834977}, "probability": 0.004449033013652444, "p": 0.11798555459340422, "totalLiquidity": 370, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 32165.645691227408, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1684714772423, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 18, "lastUpdatedTime": 1684699210227, "lastBetTime": 1684699210056, "lastCommentTime": 1684469862300, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "From ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15718/philadelphia-76ers/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://metaculus.com/questions/15718/philadelphia-76ers/", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F6yi4yEBBP9.png?alt=media&token=c11739df-a5bf-41c3-a737-c7c694158bdb", "groupSlugs": ["metaculus", "basketball"], "textDescription": "From https://metaculus.com/questions/15718/philadelphia-76ers/"}, {"id": "e73LceTstVAGMPIKe7y3", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1692757066232, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1692979200000, "question": "Will 2L flight 1111 from Munich to Zurich on 2023-08-25 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-2l-flight-1111-from-munich-to-49eaba825438", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-2l-flight-1111-from-munich-to-49eaba825438", "pool": {"NO": 75.06298599668632, "YES": 165.73172492119994}, "probability": 0.6999999999999992, "p": 0.8374451998742286, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 267.2659553395269, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692995313355, "resolutionProbability": 0.7, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692995318900, "lastBetTime": 1692972108648, "lastCommentTime": 1692995316584, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/3z8ycw54", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/3z8ycw54", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/3z8ycw54"}, {"id": "EI6zaVmj95ehbslZk94G", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700258661750, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700845200000, "question": "Will AAPL close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 19]", "slug": "will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-a368bffb1b21", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-aapl-close-higher-on-friday-th-a368bffb1b21", "pool": {"NO": 134.2842303385343, "YES": 2630.8618085142757}, "probability": 0.014706727862171648, "p": 0.22626436459698265, "totalLiquidity": 350, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4095.3289971337013, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700850354345, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "uniqueBettorCount": 20, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700850351513, "lastBetTime": 1700845171965, "lastCommentTime": 1700850350707, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Monday Close Price: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "191.45", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "economics-default", "stocks", "finance", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.\n\nThis question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.\n\nMonday Close Price: $191.45\n\nhttps://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ\n\nNOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "p0USYRP95RNdhddQ9GpC", "creatorId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "creatorUsername": "HenriThunberg", "creatorName": "Henri Thunberg", "createdTime": 1704199356137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHenriThunberg%2FC4rMRuElGd.jpeg?alt=media&token=c119866f-2a78-4b4d-8fa3-77eaaa8c1e8b", "closeTime": 1704737128736, "question": "Will Apple Vision Pro be released on January 27?", "slug": "will-apple-vision-pro-be-released-o", "url": "https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-apple-vision-pro-be-released-o", "pool": {"NO": 143.86868229185143, "YES": 3328.622872242472}, "probability": 0.009085317449088859, "p": 0.17500600723457824, "totalLiquidity": 290, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4330.4870742151115, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1704737128736, "resolutionProbability": 0.01, "resolverId": "XtJuqIcTwEa5WnmBtmypEKyjlfu1", "uniqueBettorCount": 15, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704737462034, "lastBetTime": 1704736938210, "lastCommentTime": 1704737461143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Broad definition of released, as in purchase possible anywhere or booking of store appointments to purchase.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Basically a question on whether the rumor of Jan 27th has any substance, rather than technicalities or nitpicking around what constitutes released.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/HenriThunberg%2Fd9e32a1efef2.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["apple", "apple-vision-pro", "virtual-reality"], "textDescription": "Broad definition of released, as in purchase possible anywhere or booking of store appointments to purchase.\n\nBasically a question on whether the rumor of Jan 27th has any substance, rather than technicalities or nitpicking around what constitutes released."}, {"id": "aG9ig46t8GgRHmjI3u3S", "creatorId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "creatorUsername": "CamillePerrin", "creatorName": "Camille", "createdTime": 1706733453629, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FCamillePerrin%2F5Ob9FmOl3S.JPG?alt=media&token=c66a0cba-8165-4fd1-a045-f79b7b7e79d5", "closeTime": 1706856300000, "question": "Will flight AF 1146 from Paris to Warsaw departing on 2024-02-02 arrive with 30+ minutes delay (YES)", "slug": "will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-0ed22e2f9c37", "url": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-1146-from-paris-to-w-0ed22e2f9c37", "pool": {"NO": 75.86414548360253, "YES": 44.656412475311875}, "probability": 0.26221293917322963, "p": 0.17300980113150943, "totalLiquidity": 70, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 42.88376174016449, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1706961564599, "resolutionProbability": 0.26, "resolverId": "YPTRUO3XusOdpXsUGQXhtJpXZcF2", "uniqueBettorCount": 3, "lastUpdatedTime": 1706961564863, "lastBetTime": 1706854387874, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Market close time: 2024-02-02 06:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 08:45 (UTC)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Scheduled duration: 02:20", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Fine print:", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolution according to ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "(see details here)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/CamillePerrin/will-flight-af-333-from-boston-to-p-7b85e504031f#mFtgYl9Q4l4NucT4QTHD", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Closes 2 hours before departure", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Delay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Useful links:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Leaderboard", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightStats", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightstats.com/v2/flight-tracker/AF/1146?year=2024&month=02&date=02", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": " | ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "FlightRadar24", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/af1146", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "BETA:", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Want to see more of those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Follow", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": " (Top right)", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Don't want to see those?", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": " Go to the ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Flight Delays topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=flight-delays", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ", click the three-dots menu (Top right), then ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Block Topic", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/CamillePerrin%2F7c8f088c25e3.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["flight-delays"], "textDescription": "YES on arrival delay of flight Air France AF 1146 from Paris (CDG) to Warsaw (WAW), NO if on time.\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nMarket close time: 2024-02-02 06:45 (UTC)\nScheduled departure: 2024-02-02 - 08:45 (UTC)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a000:45 (Los Angeles)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a003:45 (New York)\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a009:45 (Paris)\nScheduled duration: 02:20\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nFine print:\n\nResolution according to FlightStats\n\nDelay means total arrival delay, once all data has come in, based on the \"Flight Gate Times\" labelled \"Actual\" (see details here)\n\nCloses 2 hours before departure\n\nDelay of 31 or more minutes, cancellation and diversion resolves YES. On-time or delay less or equal to 30 min resolves NO.\n\nIf FlightStats records status unknown, might resolve N/A if other proof of resolution has not been posted in the comments\n\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\n\nUseful links:\nLeaderboard | FlightStats | FlightRadar24\n\nBETA: Coming soon-ish: managram market request, more airlines.\n\nWant to see more of those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click Follow (Top right)\n\nDon't want to see those? Go to the Flight Delays topic, click the three-dots menu (Top right), then Block Topic"}, {"id": "pqO2NMPRRLWTTEnilcGx", "creatorId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "creatorUsername": "Ziddletwix", "creatorName": "Ziddletwix", "createdTime": 1709339048093, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FZiddletwix%2FnC9klaCITf.jpeg?alt=media&token=f3cabfda-358c-4301-8983-3ba213ef2b96", "closeTime": 1712353666003, "question": "Will AMC CEO Adam Aron's 2023 total compensation package be >$24 million?", "slug": "will-amc-ceo-adam-arons-2023-total", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-amc-ceo-adam-arons-2023-total", "pool": {"NO": 5008.333333333333, "YES": 2.263249860304313}, "probability": 0.9995199288259294, "p": 0.4847645429363224, "totalLiquidity": 120, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 4925, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1712353666003, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "Iua2KQvL6KYcfGLGNI6PVeGkseo1", "uniqueBettorCount": 2, "lastUpdatedTime": 1712353666003, "lastBetTime": 1712353661778, "lastCommentTime": 1712353590820, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc is a popular theater chain (& occasional meme stock). Over the past year, $AMC stock is down ~90%.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "This week, the CEO Adam Aron announced that he would take a pay cut   (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Deadline source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://deadline.com/2024/02/amc-entertainment-adam-aron-pay-cut-stock-price-1235841446/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "):", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "blockquote", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Adam Aron and the AMC Entertainment board have agreed to reduce the CEO\u2019s target compensation by 25% this year... \u201cThere is no anguish in my voice about that. That is what a CEO of a company like yours should do... I mean it when I say I ride with you.\u201d", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I would assume this pay cut only applies to his 2024 earnings (I am not an expert). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His total compensation for 2022 was $23.7 million. ", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "In December of 2022, he asked the board for a \"pay freeze\" for 2023 (", "type": "text"}, {"text": "source", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-chief-asks-board-for-salary-freeze-next-year-11672241167", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": ").", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "His total compensation for 2023 should be revealed in the \"spring proxy statements\" (i.e. within the next few months). ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market resolves YES if the media reports that the \"total pay\", \"total compensation\", or closest equivalent wording, for Adam Aron in 2023 is larger than $24,000,000.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "I don't expect that \"total pay\" (or equivalently \"compensation package\" or etc) will be difficult to define, but if any scenarios are unclear, please ask (I will use similar criteria as my market for ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "Zazlav", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-david-zazlavs-2023-total-compe", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"text": "). ", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["finance", "economics-default", "entertainment-12ba84d9b720", "business", "entertainment", "meme-stocks", "amc"], "textDescription": "AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc is a popular theater chain (& occasional meme stock). Over the past year, $AMC stock is down ~90%.\n\n\nThis week, the CEO Adam Aron announced that he would take a pay cut   (Deadline source):\n\nAdam Aron and the AMC Entertainment board have agreed to reduce the CEO\u2019s target compensation by 25% this year... \u201cThere is no anguish in my voice about that. That is what a CEO of a company like yours should do... I mean it when I say I ride with you.\u201d\n\nI would assume this pay cut only applies to his 2024 earnings (I am not an expert). \n\nHis total compensation for 2022 was $23.7 million. \n\nIn December of 2022, he asked the board for a \"pay freeze\" for 2023 (source).\n\nHis total compensation for 2023 should be revealed in the \"spring proxy statements\" (i.e. within the next few months). \n\nThis market resolves YES if the media reports that the \"total pay\", \"total compensation\", or closest equivalent wording, for Adam Aron in 2023 is larger than $24,000,000.\n\nI don't expect that \"total pay\" (or equivalently \"compensation package\" or etc) will be difficult to define, but if any scenarios are unclear, please ask (I will use similar criteria as my market for Zazlav). "}, {"id": "gBgEYrnul7ynnCSRpeFv", "creatorId": "3XYZN0afx2X9H1Uzjf9kFSWpbIl1", "creatorUsername": "dagnazty", "creatorName": "Daggy", "createdTime": 1691893255772, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdagnazty%2FaVldizbTTc.png?alt=media&token=ddc8213c-e7e8-49c5-b259-c7456eb239bc", "closeTime": 1692486000000, "question": "Will XMR (XMR/USD) close higher on August 19 than it closed on August 18?", "slug": "will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-40edc0ff6586", "url": "https://manifold.markets/dagnazty/will-xmr-xmrusd-close-higher-on-aug-40edc0ff6586", "pool": {"NO": 275.60878596158227, "YES": 257.4297262191953}, "probability": 0.5643312414079231, "p": 0.5474873200339303, "totalLiquidity": 270, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 2032.8485636050955, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1692493874082, "resolutionProbability": 0.56, "uniqueBettorCount": 13, "lastUpdatedTime": 1692493850867, "lastBetTime": 1692485829968, "lastCommentTime": 1692493847839, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": ": $143.7222", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "This market is experimental.", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "265e317f-7381-4c4f-8e50-069cb2e3e121", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "Monero (XMR) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketundefined", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest Monero (XMR / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["economics-default", "-sircryptomind-crypto-stock", "crypto-prices"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 7pm EST, XMR daily price close at 8pm EST.\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XMR-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $143.7222\n\nThis market is experimental.\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "HYcw8DEYBsH2XCCJ3Ala", "creatorId": "XHM96tFhomccZLbIJvqdyuK0Mns1", "creatorUsername": "agentofuser", "creatorName": "agentofuser", "createdTime": 1671491429144, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fagentofuser%2Fghost_in_the_shell_type-1400x1400.png?alt=media&token=796537b5-5bc1-4173-8961-3e37acd8b0a9", "closeTime": 1680321540000, "question": "Will Elon Musk react in any way to the idea of making Moxie Marlinspike the new Twitter CEO by the end of March 2023?", "slug": "will-elon-musk-react-in-any-way-to", "url": "https://manifold.markets/agentofuser/will-elon-musk-react-in-any-way-to", "pool": {"NO": 82.09166558312266, "YES": 961.1987336251229}, "probability": 0.05000000000000005, "p": 0.38128578579784234, "totalLiquidity": 230, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 868.637456207807, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1681154422715, "resolutionProbability": 0.05, "uniqueBettorCount": 10, "lastUpdatedTime": 1680540323582, "lastBetTime": 1680300703054, "lastCommentTime": 1680540320128, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "bulletList", "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Elon follows Moxie.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "After Elon's acquisition of Twitter it allegedly started working to add the Signal Protocol to Twitter DMs.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moxie is a hard-core technologist and a \"free speech absolutist\" who's managed to create a financially sustainable product.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Moxie isn't Signal CEO anymore and might be available.", "type": "text"}]}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If Elon reacts to the idea in any way, via e.g. a like on a tweet, a reply, a mention, etc., regardless if the reaction is positive, neutral, or negative, this market resolves to YES, otherwise resolves to NO.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2F-f4e6nGWZi.png?alt=media&token=f28770cf-69ff-4925-a706-cccd4f498d15", "groupSlugs": ["twitter", "elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e", "moxie-marlinspike", "twitter-ceo-ce5b7980a96a"], "textDescription": "Elon follows Moxie.\n\nAfter Elon's acquisition of Twitter it allegedly started working to add the Signal Protocol to Twitter DMs.\n\nMoxie is a hard-core technologist and a \"free speech absolutist\" who's managed to create a financially sustainable product.\n\nMoxie isn't Signal CEO anymore and might be available.\n\nIf Elon reacts to the idea in any way, via e.g. a like on a tweet, a reply, a mention, etc., regardless if the reaction is positive, neutral, or negative, this market resolves to YES, otherwise resolves to NO."}, {"id": "ZhgytigdU572CChp9hzq", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1690616003573, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1710125702280, "question": "Will Ludwig G\u00f6ransson win the Oscar for Best Original Score at the 96th Academy Awards for 'Oppenheimer'?", "slug": "will-ludwig-goransson-win-the-oscar", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ludwig-goransson-win-the-oscar", "pool": {"NO": 34293.98941644802, "YES": 69.14598681375173}, "probability": 0.9995313257501784, "p": 0.8113228098991988, "totalLiquidity": 490, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 34674.524610237524, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1710125702280, "resolutionProbability": 1, "resolverId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "uniqueBettorCount": 27, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710125702918, "lastBetTime": 1710125697816, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "movies", "academy-awards", "oppenheimer", "oscars", "oscars-2024", "christopher-nolan"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)"}, {"id": "S4uiuqfUgOEfyS4WU6Gs", "creatorId": "4xOTMCIOkGesdJft50wVFZFb5IB3", "creatorUsername": "Tripping", "creatorName": "Tripping", "createdTime": 1682234599875, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FTripping%2F3RfJx0JW5H.png?alt=media&token=085f2ca7-f22f-4cce-925f-2823bd2dce88", "closeTime": 1698928200000, "question": "Will Tekken 8 release before November 1st, 2023?", "slug": "will-tekken-8-release-before-novemb", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-tekken-8-release-before-novemb", "pool": {"NO": 18.930276370994143, "YES": 26884.02441867169}, "probability": 0.00011504652151637205, "p": 0.14045283175040982, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 26858.212626167962, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1698931059504, "resolutionProbability": 0, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698927314050, "lastBetTime": 1698927313890, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tekken_8", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tekken_8", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "A beta would not count for the purposes of this question.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves if it actually does release in October 2023 or earlier, in any timezone. Does not resolve merely when a release date is announced.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FI3pCltewI_.png?alt=media&token=0829a44d-6309-4a0c-9735-e63c1f2302e5", "groupSlugs": ["fgc", "fighting-games", "tekken", "bandai-namco"], "textDescription": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tekken_8\n\nA beta would not count for the purposes of this question.\n\nResolves if it actually does release in October 2023 or earlier, in any timezone. Does not resolve merely when a release date is announced."}, {"id": "Yw6ecyOYm6mF6KHBtUQ9", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1700426218137, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1700521200000, "question": "Will SOL close higher on November 20 than it closed on November 19?", "slug": "will-sol-close-higher-on-november-2", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-sol-close-higher-on-november-2", "pool": {"NO": 13.465400918369532, "YES": 558.0761916160297}, "probability": 0.030000000000000016, "p": 0.5617514572794179, "totalLiquidity": 110, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1062.4798243730772, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1700533328937, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "uniqueBettorCount": 5, "lastUpdatedTime": 1700533324559, "lastBetTime": 1700521049328, "lastCommentTime": 1700533323820, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": " ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "61.47", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["crypto-prices", "sccsq4", "economics-default", "hawsbollah"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), SOL daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).\n\nResolves based on Coingecko Historical Data page (trial):\n https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/solana/historical_data#panel\n\nPrevious Close: $61.47\n\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS"}, {"id": "EExBYOd0ETLSYn46P0mC", "creatorId": "BMPLNYGbHzaFPE34cO6HPRkdesb2", "creatorUsername": "Haws", "creatorName": "Haws", "createdTime": 1698459505407, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FHaws%2FNjpD29kdA0.png?alt=media&token=d3ef401d-dfab-4976-a977-f36ea9ae4436", "closeTime": 1698534000000, "question": "Will XRP close higher on October 28 than it closed on October 27?", "slug": "will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-28", "url": "https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-xrp-close-higher-on-october-28", "pool": {"NO": 855.6021445416395, "YES": 54.93259240258024}, "probability": 0.9662812631137347, "p": 0.6478729668390334, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 1142.5276029642569, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1698541851545, "resolutionProbability": 0.97, "uniqueBettorCount": 9, "lastUpdatedTime": 1698541841864, "lastBetTime": 1698533233901, "lastCommentTime": 1698541841163, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}, {"type": "bold"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Previous Close: $", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}]}, {"text": "0.5432", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "horizontalRule"}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.", "type": "text"}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "DASHBOARD ", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/dashboard/sccsq423", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}, {"text": "(General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "SIMILAR MARKETS", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=sccsq4&t=", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "LEADERBOARD STATS$", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://manifold.markets/leaderboards?topic=sccsq4", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_self"}}, {"type": "bold"}, {"type": "italic"}]}]}, {"type": "linkPreview", "attrs": {"id": "ee28e021-1c67-4d49-870d-d94e2e20d769", "url": "https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD", "image": "https://ssl.gstatic.com/finance/favicon/finance_770x402.png", "title": "XRP (XRP) Price, Real-time Quote & News - Google Finance", "inputKey": "create marketWill XRP close higher on October 24 than it closed on October 23?Hh2zJJExWlyJQakffoVEp88Ycq6yFd5ECKqq9PFObacb900a-0324-4b57-9ff0-1767ed9be5e5", "deleteNode": null, "description": "Get the latest XRP (XRP / USD) real-time quote, historical performance, charts, and other cryptocurrency information to help you make more informed trading and investment decisions.", "deleteCallback": null, "hideCloseButton": false}}]}, "groupSlugs": ["sccsq4", "crypto-prices", "economics-default"], "textDescription": "Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), XRP daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).\n\nResolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/XRP-USD\n\nPrevious Close: $0.5432\n\n\nTrading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.\n\nDASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)\n\nSIMILAR MARKETS\n\nLEADERBOARD STATS$\n\n[link preview]"}, {"id": "p6DLglIsm8GAhZD7fBNV", "creatorId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "creatorUsername": "AngolaMaldives", "creatorName": "Angola Maldives", "createdTime": 1663179799307, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GhyxR2fmBw4MWVrLYW0o_34ezVvE8ySaVjLP-8B=s96-c", "closeTime": 1704067200000, "question": "Will Mickey Mouse enter the public domain on Jan 1st, 2024?", "slug": "will-mickey-mouse-enter-the-public", "url": "https://manifold.markets/AngolaMaldives/will-mickey-mouse-enter-the-public", "pool": {"NO": 6707.076869806313, "YES": 1408.0715594449114}, "probability": 0.945951935824497, "p": 0.7860664526291262, "totalLiquidity": 2030, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 23646.768138930584, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1704112348491, "resolutionProbability": 0.95, "resolverId": "AQ6kYkgmzRUh393IzqZWwh9YCs03", "uniqueBettorCount": 110, "lastUpdatedTime": 1704112353663, "lastBetTime": 1704014238534, "lastCommentTime": 1704112353005, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent. Will this time finally be the time, or will he escape again? Place your bets!", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "RESOLUTION CLARIFICATION: This seems pretty difficult to stop now but I will wait for reputable press articles in Jan 2024 to say 'Mickey Mouse is public domain now' or words to that effect before resolving.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["entertainment", "new-years-resolutions-2024"], "textDescription": "The first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, Steamboat Willie, is due to enter the public domain on 1st Jan 2024. This has been due to happen on multiple earlier dates however, and the mouse has always dodged the deadline by changes to copyright law that have extended Disney's tenure of ownership over the renowned rodent. Will this time finally be the time, or will he escape again? Place your bets!\n\nRESOLUTION CLARIFICATION: This seems pretty difficult to stop now but I will wait for reputable press articles in Jan 2024 to say 'Mickey Mouse is public domain now' or words to that effect before resolving."}, {"id": "xnaJNuxmcUp7UCbcJXmk", "creatorId": "MT2hA5HKIQhjQR3hC5QZpHnBq1K2", "creatorUsername": "JonathanNankivell", "creatorName": "Jonathan Nankivell", "createdTime": 1664149225684, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gjz-JXHrxvcebJb3PSu0A-p_DS0XZ5_sO6XcAVy=s96-c", "closeTime": 1669852740000, "question": "In November, will people think Labour would be the best political party at handling the economy?", "slug": "in-november-will-people-think-labou", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/in-november-will-people-think-labou", "pool": {"NO": 367.3529713211944, "YES": 69.0977940068228}, "probability": 0.9011216815250555, "p": 0.6315681172582255, "totalLiquidity": 140, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 514.2525620995516, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1673965516304, "resolutionProbability": 0.9, "uniqueBettorCount": 12, "lastUpdatedTime": 1669721424203, "lastBetTime": 1669721365301, "lastCommentTime": 1669721421120, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-be-the-best-at-handling-the-economy", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-be-the-best-at-handling-the-economy", "class": "no-underline !text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400 hover:decoration-2", "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "groupSlugs": ["uk-politics"], "textDescription": "https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/which-political-party-would-be-the-best-at-handling-the-economy"}, {"id": "82dyXNQJgeq60i3Z6Sh6", "creatorId": "9GSWaFCPsaguZwima6TxzyFWup13", "creatorUsername": "johnleoks", "creatorName": "johnleoks", "createdTime": 1678473352461, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/ALm5wu1fEWiQZNBclZJIqG3iTleWTsdH5ReWs20Omf7ktA=s96-c", "closeTime": 1678938555284, "question": "Will Destiny's clip \"He Tried To Expose Destiny And It HUGELY Backfired\" reach 15k views by 3/17 9 A.M. PST?", "slug": "will-destinys-clip-he-tried-to-expo", "url": "https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-destinys-clip-he-tried-to-expo", "pool": {"NO": 10956.353372065012, "YES": 62.47381225036224}, "probability": 0.99881330376481, "p": 0.8275650122817404, "totalLiquidity": 170, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 11130.172184713902, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "YES", "resolutionTime": 1678938555284, "resolutionProbability": 1, "uniqueBettorCount": 8, "lastUpdatedTime": 1710218519573, "lastBetTime": 1678938552437, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "orderedList", "attrs": {"start": 1}, "content": [{"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "https://youtu.be/1ASkVBzL81I", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://youtu.be/1ASkVBzL81I", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.", "type": "text"}]}]}, {"type": "listItem", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "If you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. ", "type": "text"}]}]}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FRvsg-k2qWJ.png?alt=media&token=e9a6547b-0bf3-4b61-b474-4c44a3118519", "groupSlugs": ["destinygg"], "textDescription": "https://youtu.be/1ASkVBzL81I\n\nIf no screenshots are posted showing the viewcount of this video after the market has closed, then as the market creator, I will at my earliest convenience (since I can't always be there at time of closing) look at the current viewcount number and use that figure to determine how the market should be resolved.\n\nIf you feel like the market has been resolved unfairly or wrongly, please reach out to me and give me your reasons. "}, {"id": "kKXYYyisJGVjlPokH9kL", "creatorId": "INgj5CH9MRYVE1hzYwghFHrVHkw2", "creatorUsername": "JamesBarry", "creatorName": "James Barry", "createdTime": 1709265649217, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14GiQ97fab5klQv1kGZTuL3vK6KeZ-OWzamYJlZYapkw=s96-c", "closeTime": 1709355540000, "question": "Will Porter Robinson deactivate their twitter account on March 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-the-porter-robinson-deactivate", "url": "https://manifold.markets/JamesBarry/will-the-porter-robinson-deactivate", "pool": {"NO": 37.409765328706705, "YES": 869.9879007718586}, "probability": 0.03193546238728592, "p": 0.43412660501883105, "totalLiquidity": 200, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 832.4170666571328, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1709362868325, "resolutionProbability": 0.03, "resolverId": "INgj5CH9MRYVE1hzYwghFHrVHkw2", "uniqueBettorCount": 6, "lastUpdatedTime": 1709362868586, "lastBetTime": 1709352016426, "lastCommentTime": 1709362863138, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "for context, Robinson recently released this video:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "there's a countdown to 5pm GMT on March 1 here:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "https://porterrobinson.com/", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://porterrobinson.com/", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "To clarify the spirit of the question:", "type": "text"}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "here is the twitter account in question: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://twitter.com/porterrobinson", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://twitter.com/porterrobinson", "class": "break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-primary-400 hover:decoration-2 active:underline active:decoration-primary-400", "target": "_blank"}}]}, {"type": "hardBreak"}, {"text": "early morning on the 2nd would also resolve positive; this will resolve \"Yes\" if, before 7am GMT 3/2/2024 Porter Robinson's twitter account is deactivated.", "type": "text"}]}]}, "coverImageUrl": "https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/JamesBarry%2F99715be1dd28.jpg", "groupSlugs": ["music-f213cbf1eab5", "internet", "music-artists"], "textDescription": "for context, Robinson recently released this video:\nhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNud0z0XVzk\n\nthere's a countdown to 5pm GMT on March 1 here:\nhttps://porterrobinson.com/\n\nTo clarify the spirit of the question:\nhere is the twitter account in question: https://twitter.com/porterrobinson\nearly morning on the 2nd would also resolve positive; this will resolve \"Yes\" if, before 7am GMT 3/2/2024 Porter Robinson's twitter account is deactivated."}, {"id": "oACWFiyRIYkOMkondMxA", "creatorId": "8HDws7JfX9hgphuXyPxYJ1INpCq1", "creatorUsername": "wingman_web3", "creatorName": "Wingman", "createdTime": 1695316449645, "creatorAvatarUrl": "https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FWingman%2FYXGbn2dDoP.png?alt=media&token=65669e6e-d025-4725-a152-3a07a006de2f", "closeTime": 1695338700000, "question": "Will W6 flight 1012 from Liverpool to Katowice on 2023-09-21 arrive on-time (YES) or with delay >= 30 mins (NO)?", "slug": "will-w6-flight-1012-from-liverpool", "url": "https://manifold.markets/wingman_web3/will-w6-flight-1012-from-liverpool", "pool": {"NO": 123.88293785108209, "YES": 275.08447848472287}, "probability": 0.08213996958349588, "p": 0.16577399174453428, "totalLiquidity": 150, "outcomeType": "BINARY", "mechanism": "cpmm-1", "volume": 648.6655801516639, "volume24Hours": 0, "isResolved": true, "resolution": "NO", "resolutionTime": 1695393667436, "resolutionProbability": 0.08, "uniqueBettorCount": 7, "lastUpdatedTime": 1695336998482, "lastBetTime": 1695336998143, "description": {"type": "doc", "content": [{"type": "paragraph", "content": [{"text": "Track flight arrival here: ", "type": "text"}, {"text": "https://tinyurl.com/t2u7te4y", "type": "text", "marks": [{"type": "link", "attrs": {"href": "https://tinyurl.com/t2u7te4y", "class": null, "target": "_blank"}}]}]}]}, "textDescription": "Track flight arrival here: https://tinyurl.com/t2u7te4y"}]
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